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000
FXUS63 KBIS 271614
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1014 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

NEW MODEL DATA SHOWS SIMILAR PATTERN BUT A BIT DRYER SOUTHWEST
TODAY. MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY BY NOON PORTIONS OF THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. SEEING SOME MIXED PRECIP AT MILES CITY MONTANA AND THIS
SUGGESTS WOULD BE PRUDENT TO KEEP ADVISORY THERE THROUGH NOON TO
EVALUATE TRENDS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SOUTH
CENTRAL WITH A CHANCE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FRIGID TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO THE EAST OF BROAD CLOUD COVER. HAVE
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS FRIGID WIND CHILLS
THIS MORNING OVER THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...ONLY UPDATE WAS TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST. WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AS
THEY ARE WITH SNOW STARTING TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST AS NOTED ON
BOWMAN ARB RADAR AND BAKER MONTANA OBBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE THREATS OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND
RAIN...AND ON ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED/CHANGED.

THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS
A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND ALSO THAT THE ADVANCE
OF WARMER AIR ALOFT IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE IMPLICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS MORNING IN THE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD BE ALL SNOW RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN. THE
CHANGEOVER TO A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST UNTIL AROUND NOON.

THUS HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES THAT HAD BEEN
ISSUED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANGES ARE AS FOLLOWS:

THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
HAD BEEN CHANGED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. REASONING: FIRST
EXPECTING SNOW...THEN A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

1) THE FAR SOUTHWEST (4 COUNTIES) WILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BY EVENING THE AREA
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST.

2) THE REST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING...AFTERNOON...AND EVENING.

3) THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL REMAIN
THE SAME: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOW EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT THE CHANGEOVER OR MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN WILL WARRANT
THE CONTINUATION OF THE ADVISORY.

TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE UP TO AN INCH IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...1-2 INCHES NORTHWEST...AND 2-3 INCHES
NORTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL ON
FRIDAY...ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY KEEPING THE MELTING
LAYER OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN AREA OF MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THIS WILL KEEP FREEZING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FROM EASTERN MONTANA
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO START WORKING ITS WAY IN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WARM LAYER ALOFT
WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANCES PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD AIR
FLOWS IN. NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS NOT FAR OFF PREVIOUS NIGHTS LOWS OVER MANY PARTS OF THE NORTH
AND WEST. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BECOME A CONCERN SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH.

ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A VERY COLD DAY IS EXPECTED...WITH
NORTHERN LOCATIONS HANGING AROUND THE ZERO MARK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...DROPPING TO NEAR 20 BELOW OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE
PATH OF THE SURFACE HIGH...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND TO AGAIN WARRANT
WIND CHILL CONCERNS. WARMER...THOUGH STILL BELOW
AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

AT 10 AM CST...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN
ASSOCIATED MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS...GENERALLY DETERIORATING TO
MVFR TO IFR KISN-KMOT AFTER 18Z.  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A
WINTRY MIX OVER KDIK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND AT KISN/KBIS AROUND
00Z THIS EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AT KMOT/KJMS...BUT A WINTRY
MIX POSSIBLE LATE AROUND 06Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-042-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ040-
041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 271614
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1014 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

NEW MODEL DATA SHOWS SIMILAR PATTERN BUT A BIT DRYER SOUTHWEST
TODAY. MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY BY NOON PORTIONS OF THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. SEEING SOME MIXED PRECIP AT MILES CITY MONTANA AND THIS
SUGGESTS WOULD BE PRUDENT TO KEEP ADVISORY THERE THROUGH NOON TO
EVALUATE TRENDS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SOUTH
CENTRAL WITH A CHANCE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FRIGID TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO THE EAST OF BROAD CLOUD COVER. HAVE
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS FRIGID WIND CHILLS
THIS MORNING OVER THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...ONLY UPDATE WAS TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST. WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AS
THEY ARE WITH SNOW STARTING TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST AS NOTED ON
BOWMAN ARB RADAR AND BAKER MONTANA OBBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE THREATS OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND
RAIN...AND ON ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED/CHANGED.

THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS
A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND ALSO THAT THE ADVANCE
OF WARMER AIR ALOFT IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE IMPLICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS MORNING IN THE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD BE ALL SNOW RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN. THE
CHANGEOVER TO A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST UNTIL AROUND NOON.

THUS HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES THAT HAD BEEN
ISSUED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANGES ARE AS FOLLOWS:

THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
HAD BEEN CHANGED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. REASONING: FIRST
EXPECTING SNOW...THEN A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

1) THE FAR SOUTHWEST (4 COUNTIES) WILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BY EVENING THE AREA
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST.

2) THE REST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING...AFTERNOON...AND EVENING.

3) THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL REMAIN
THE SAME: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOW EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT THE CHANGEOVER OR MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN WILL WARRANT
THE CONTINUATION OF THE ADVISORY.

TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE UP TO AN INCH IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...1-2 INCHES NORTHWEST...AND 2-3 INCHES
NORTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL ON
FRIDAY...ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY KEEPING THE MELTING
LAYER OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN AREA OF MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THIS WILL KEEP FREEZING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FROM EASTERN MONTANA
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO START WORKING ITS WAY IN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WARM LAYER ALOFT
WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANCES PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD AIR
FLOWS IN. NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS NOT FAR OFF PREVIOUS NIGHTS LOWS OVER MANY PARTS OF THE NORTH
AND WEST. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BECOME A CONCERN SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH.

ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A VERY COLD DAY IS EXPECTED...WITH
NORTHERN LOCATIONS HANGING AROUND THE ZERO MARK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...DROPPING TO NEAR 20 BELOW OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE
PATH OF THE SURFACE HIGH...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND TO AGAIN WARRANT
WIND CHILL CONCERNS. WARMER...THOUGH STILL BELOW
AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

AT 10 AM CST...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN
ASSOCIATED MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS...GENERALLY DETERIORATING TO
MVFR TO IFR KISN-KMOT AFTER 18Z.  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A
WINTRY MIX OVER KDIK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND AT KISN/KBIS AROUND
00Z THIS EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AT KMOT/KJMS...BUT A WINTRY
MIX POSSIBLE LATE AROUND 06Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-042-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ040-
041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 271614
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1014 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

NEW MODEL DATA SHOWS SIMILAR PATTERN BUT A BIT DRYER SOUTHWEST
TODAY. MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY BY NOON PORTIONS OF THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. SEEING SOME MIXED PRECIP AT MILES CITY MONTANA AND THIS
SUGGESTS WOULD BE PRUDENT TO KEEP ADVISORY THERE THROUGH NOON TO
EVALUATE TRENDS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SOUTH
CENTRAL WITH A CHANCE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FRIGID TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO THE EAST OF BROAD CLOUD COVER. HAVE
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS FRIGID WIND CHILLS
THIS MORNING OVER THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...ONLY UPDATE WAS TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST. WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AS
THEY ARE WITH SNOW STARTING TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST AS NOTED ON
BOWMAN ARB RADAR AND BAKER MONTANA OBBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE THREATS OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND
RAIN...AND ON ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED/CHANGED.

THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS
A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND ALSO THAT THE ADVANCE
OF WARMER AIR ALOFT IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE IMPLICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS MORNING IN THE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD BE ALL SNOW RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN. THE
CHANGEOVER TO A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST UNTIL AROUND NOON.

THUS HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES THAT HAD BEEN
ISSUED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANGES ARE AS FOLLOWS:

THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
HAD BEEN CHANGED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. REASONING: FIRST
EXPECTING SNOW...THEN A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

1) THE FAR SOUTHWEST (4 COUNTIES) WILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BY EVENING THE AREA
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST.

2) THE REST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING...AFTERNOON...AND EVENING.

3) THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL REMAIN
THE SAME: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOW EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT THE CHANGEOVER OR MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN WILL WARRANT
THE CONTINUATION OF THE ADVISORY.

TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE UP TO AN INCH IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...1-2 INCHES NORTHWEST...AND 2-3 INCHES
NORTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL ON
FRIDAY...ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY KEEPING THE MELTING
LAYER OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN AREA OF MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THIS WILL KEEP FREEZING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FROM EASTERN MONTANA
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO START WORKING ITS WAY IN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WARM LAYER ALOFT
WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANCES PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD AIR
FLOWS IN. NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS NOT FAR OFF PREVIOUS NIGHTS LOWS OVER MANY PARTS OF THE NORTH
AND WEST. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BECOME A CONCERN SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH.

ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A VERY COLD DAY IS EXPECTED...WITH
NORTHERN LOCATIONS HANGING AROUND THE ZERO MARK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...DROPPING TO NEAR 20 BELOW OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE
PATH OF THE SURFACE HIGH...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND TO AGAIN WARRANT
WIND CHILL CONCERNS. WARMER...THOUGH STILL BELOW
AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

AT 10 AM CST...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN
ASSOCIATED MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS...GENERALLY DETERIORATING TO
MVFR TO IFR KISN-KMOT AFTER 18Z.  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A
WINTRY MIX OVER KDIK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND AT KISN/KBIS AROUND
00Z THIS EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AT KMOT/KJMS...BUT A WINTRY
MIX POSSIBLE LATE AROUND 06Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-042-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ040-
041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 271614
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1014 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

NEW MODEL DATA SHOWS SIMILAR PATTERN BUT A BIT DRYER SOUTHWEST
TODAY. MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY BY NOON PORTIONS OF THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. SEEING SOME MIXED PRECIP AT MILES CITY MONTANA AND THIS
SUGGESTS WOULD BE PRUDENT TO KEEP ADVISORY THERE THROUGH NOON TO
EVALUATE TRENDS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SOUTH
CENTRAL WITH A CHANCE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FRIGID TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO THE EAST OF BROAD CLOUD COVER. HAVE
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS FRIGID WIND CHILLS
THIS MORNING OVER THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...ONLY UPDATE WAS TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST. WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AS
THEY ARE WITH SNOW STARTING TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST AS NOTED ON
BOWMAN ARB RADAR AND BAKER MONTANA OBBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE THREATS OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND
RAIN...AND ON ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED/CHANGED.

THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS
A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND ALSO THAT THE ADVANCE
OF WARMER AIR ALOFT IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE IMPLICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS MORNING IN THE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD BE ALL SNOW RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN. THE
CHANGEOVER TO A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST UNTIL AROUND NOON.

THUS HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES THAT HAD BEEN
ISSUED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANGES ARE AS FOLLOWS:

THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
HAD BEEN CHANGED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. REASONING: FIRST
EXPECTING SNOW...THEN A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

1) THE FAR SOUTHWEST (4 COUNTIES) WILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BY EVENING THE AREA
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST.

2) THE REST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING...AFTERNOON...AND EVENING.

3) THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL REMAIN
THE SAME: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOW EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT THE CHANGEOVER OR MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN WILL WARRANT
THE CONTINUATION OF THE ADVISORY.

TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE UP TO AN INCH IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...1-2 INCHES NORTHWEST...AND 2-3 INCHES
NORTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL ON
FRIDAY...ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY KEEPING THE MELTING
LAYER OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN AREA OF MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THIS WILL KEEP FREEZING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FROM EASTERN MONTANA
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO START WORKING ITS WAY IN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WARM LAYER ALOFT
WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANCES PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD AIR
FLOWS IN. NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS NOT FAR OFF PREVIOUS NIGHTS LOWS OVER MANY PARTS OF THE NORTH
AND WEST. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BECOME A CONCERN SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH.

ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A VERY COLD DAY IS EXPECTED...WITH
NORTHERN LOCATIONS HANGING AROUND THE ZERO MARK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...DROPPING TO NEAR 20 BELOW OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE
PATH OF THE SURFACE HIGH...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND TO AGAIN WARRANT
WIND CHILL CONCERNS. WARMER...THOUGH STILL BELOW
AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

AT 10 AM CST...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN
ASSOCIATED MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS...GENERALLY DETERIORATING TO
MVFR TO IFR KISN-KMOT AFTER 18Z.  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A
WINTRY MIX OVER KDIK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND AT KISN/KBIS AROUND
00Z THIS EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AT KMOT/KJMS...BUT A WINTRY
MIX POSSIBLE LATE AROUND 06Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-042-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ040-
041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KFGF 271558
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
958 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TIMING OF CLOUDS AND SNOW MOVING IN
LATER IN THE DAY. THINK THAT IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET UNTIL AFTER
00Z...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW TONIGHT THEN CONTINUATION OF
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT...AND PREFER THE NAM THAT HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL START OUT VERY COLD WITH TEMPS BELOW ZERO. WE
COULD GET INTO WIND CHILL ADVY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING...BUT WITH WINDS UNDER 10 MPH WON/T ISSUE HEADLINE ATTM.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
WEST...BUT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND VERY COLD WITH HIGH IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET WILL
COINCIDE WITH STRONG WAA IN THE 850-700MB LAYER AND FGEN. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN ORGANIZED BAND OF SNOW THAT SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A BAND OF 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW
FROM DVL- GFK INTO BJI AREA...AND THERE COULD BE A LOCALIZED
REPORT OF 5. THIS COUPLED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
25MPH OVERNIGHT...COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW IF WINDS INCREASE A BIT MORE. WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 00Z IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...THEN AT 03Z FROM
GFK-BJI CORRIDOR AND RUN IT UNTIL 18Z FRI TO CAPTURE THIS FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP. TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR SOME
MIXED PRECIP LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS THE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD END FRIDAY MORNING AND LINGER A BIT INTO FRI AFTERNOON IN
THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FOR FRI NIGHT...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE NORTH AND THERE COULD
BE MIXED PRECIP IN THE NORTHER 2/3 OF THE REGION. EXPECT MOST OF
THE MEASURABLE QPF TO BE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND IN
CANADA...NEAR THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ON SAT
AND COULD REACH NEAR FREEZING...PERHAPS INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
SOUTH IF THERE IS ANY INSOLATION AT ALL. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL...SO SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

ON SAT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
BY SAT EVENING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SOME BLOWING SNOW GIVEN
THE CLASSIC ARCTIC TYPE SOUNDINGS AND SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO
MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS IN OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. A 1040MB SFC HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE DAKOTAS...WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH LOWERING
THICKNESS VALUES. HOWEVER...THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE SHORT LIVED
AS THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGES AGAIN. THE UPPER TROF ROTATES E ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO REBOUND...AND RETURN
FLOW BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN AND ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...WITH CONDITIONS
FALLING INTO THE MVFR AND IFR RANGE ONCE SNOW MOVES IN AROUND THE
00Z-03Z TIME FRAME. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE...AND COULD
GUST AROUND 40KT OVERNIGHT PRODUCING VSBYS AROUND 1/2SM AT TIMES
IN THE VALLEY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     FRIDAY FOR NDZ008-016-027-030.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     FRIDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-026-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     FRIDAY FOR MNZ001-002-004-007-008-013>017-022>024-027-028-
     031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 271558
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
958 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TIMING OF CLOUDS AND SNOW MOVING IN
LATER IN THE DAY. THINK THAT IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET UNTIL AFTER
00Z...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW TONIGHT THEN CONTINUATION OF
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT...AND PREFER THE NAM THAT HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL START OUT VERY COLD WITH TEMPS BELOW ZERO. WE
COULD GET INTO WIND CHILL ADVY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING...BUT WITH WINDS UNDER 10 MPH WON/T ISSUE HEADLINE ATTM.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
WEST...BUT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND VERY COLD WITH HIGH IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET WILL
COINCIDE WITH STRONG WAA IN THE 850-700MB LAYER AND FGEN. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN ORGANIZED BAND OF SNOW THAT SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A BAND OF 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW
FROM DVL- GFK INTO BJI AREA...AND THERE COULD BE A LOCALIZED
REPORT OF 5. THIS COUPLED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
25MPH OVERNIGHT...COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW IF WINDS INCREASE A BIT MORE. WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 00Z IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...THEN AT 03Z FROM
GFK-BJI CORRIDOR AND RUN IT UNTIL 18Z FRI TO CAPTURE THIS FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP. TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR SOME
MIXED PRECIP LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS THE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD END FRIDAY MORNING AND LINGER A BIT INTO FRI AFTERNOON IN
THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FOR FRI NIGHT...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE NORTH AND THERE COULD
BE MIXED PRECIP IN THE NORTHER 2/3 OF THE REGION. EXPECT MOST OF
THE MEASURABLE QPF TO BE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND IN
CANADA...NEAR THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ON SAT
AND COULD REACH NEAR FREEZING...PERHAPS INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
SOUTH IF THERE IS ANY INSOLATION AT ALL. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL...SO SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

ON SAT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
BY SAT EVENING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SOME BLOWING SNOW GIVEN
THE CLASSIC ARCTIC TYPE SOUNDINGS AND SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO
MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS IN OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. A 1040MB SFC HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE DAKOTAS...WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH LOWERING
THICKNESS VALUES. HOWEVER...THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE SHORT LIVED
AS THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGES AGAIN. THE UPPER TROF ROTATES E ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO REBOUND...AND RETURN
FLOW BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN AND ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...WITH CONDITIONS
FALLING INTO THE MVFR AND IFR RANGE ONCE SNOW MOVES IN AROUND THE
00Z-03Z TIME FRAME. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE...AND COULD
GUST AROUND 40KT OVERNIGHT PRODUCING VSBYS AROUND 1/2SM AT TIMES
IN THE VALLEY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     FRIDAY FOR NDZ008-016-027-030.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     FRIDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-026-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     FRIDAY FOR MNZ001-002-004-007-008-013>017-022>024-027-028-
     031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 271236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 621 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FRIGID TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO THE EAST OF BROAD CLOUD COVER. HAVE
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS FRIGID WIND CHILLS
THIS MORNING OVER THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...ONLY UPDATE WAS TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST. WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AS
THEY ARE WITH SNOW STARTING TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST AS NOTED ON
BOWMAN ARB RADAR AND BAKER MONTANA OBBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE THREATS OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND
RAIN...AND ON ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED/CHANGED.

THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS
A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND ALSO THAT THE ADVANCE
OF WARMER AIR ALOFT IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE IMPLICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS MORNING IN THE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD BE ALL SNOW RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN. THE
CHANGEOVER TO A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST UNTIL AROUND NOON.

THUS HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES THAT HAD BEEN
ISSUED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANGES ARE AS FOLLOWS:

THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
HAD BEEN CHANGED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. REASONING: FIRST
EXPECTING SNOW...THEN A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

1) THE FAR SOUTHWEST (4 COUNTIES) WILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BY EVENING THE AREA
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST.

2) THE REST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING...AFTERNOON...AND EVENING.

3) THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL REMAIN
THE SAME: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOW EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT THE CHANGEOVER OR MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN WILL WARRANT
THE CONTINUATION OF THE ADVISORY.

TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE UP TO AN INCH IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...1-2 INCHES NORTHWEST...AND 2-3 INCHES
NORTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL ON
FRIDAY...ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY KEEPING THE MELTING
LAYER OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN AREA OF MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THIS WILL KEEP FREEZING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FROM EASTERN MONTANA
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO START WORKING ITS WAY IN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WARM LAYER ALOFT
WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANCES PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD AIR
FLOWS IN. NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS NOT FAR OFF PREVIOUS NIGHTS LOWS OVER MANY PARTS OF THE NORTH
AND WEST. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BECOME A CONCERN SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH.

ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A VERY COLD DAY IS EXPECTED...WITH
NORTHERN LOCATIONS HANGING AROUND THE ZERO MARK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...DROPPING TO NEAR 20 BELOW OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE
PATH OF THE SURFACE HIGH...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND TO AGAIN WARRANT
WIND CHILL CONCERNS. WARMER...THOUGH STILL BELOW
AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE KJMS AREA THIS MORNING...WITH OCNL
IFR CIGS. LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN DEVELOP IN THE WEST THIS
MORNING...MAINLY FROM 12Z-14Z AT KDIK...THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST
EAST AFTER 18Z. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX OVER KDIK
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND AT KISN/KBIS AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING.
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AT KMOT/KJMS...BUT A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE LATE
AROUND 06Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-042-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-021.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ040-
041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 271236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 621 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FRIGID TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO THE EAST OF BROAD CLOUD COVER. HAVE
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS FRIGID WIND CHILLS
THIS MORNING OVER THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...ONLY UPDATE WAS TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST. WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AS
THEY ARE WITH SNOW STARTING TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST AS NOTED ON
BOWMAN ARB RADAR AND BAKER MONTANA OBBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE THREATS OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND
RAIN...AND ON ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED/CHANGED.

THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS
A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND ALSO THAT THE ADVANCE
OF WARMER AIR ALOFT IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE IMPLICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS MORNING IN THE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD BE ALL SNOW RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN. THE
CHANGEOVER TO A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST UNTIL AROUND NOON.

THUS HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES THAT HAD BEEN
ISSUED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANGES ARE AS FOLLOWS:

THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
HAD BEEN CHANGED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. REASONING: FIRST
EXPECTING SNOW...THEN A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

1) THE FAR SOUTHWEST (4 COUNTIES) WILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BY EVENING THE AREA
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST.

2) THE REST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING...AFTERNOON...AND EVENING.

3) THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL REMAIN
THE SAME: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOW EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT THE CHANGEOVER OR MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN WILL WARRANT
THE CONTINUATION OF THE ADVISORY.

TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE UP TO AN INCH IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...1-2 INCHES NORTHWEST...AND 2-3 INCHES
NORTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL ON
FRIDAY...ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY KEEPING THE MELTING
LAYER OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN AREA OF MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THIS WILL KEEP FREEZING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FROM EASTERN MONTANA
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO START WORKING ITS WAY IN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WARM LAYER ALOFT
WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANCES PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD AIR
FLOWS IN. NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS NOT FAR OFF PREVIOUS NIGHTS LOWS OVER MANY PARTS OF THE NORTH
AND WEST. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BECOME A CONCERN SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH.

ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A VERY COLD DAY IS EXPECTED...WITH
NORTHERN LOCATIONS HANGING AROUND THE ZERO MARK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...DROPPING TO NEAR 20 BELOW OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE
PATH OF THE SURFACE HIGH...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND TO AGAIN WARRANT
WIND CHILL CONCERNS. WARMER...THOUGH STILL BELOW
AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE KJMS AREA THIS MORNING...WITH OCNL
IFR CIGS. LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN DEVELOP IN THE WEST THIS
MORNING...MAINLY FROM 12Z-14Z AT KDIK...THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST
EAST AFTER 18Z. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX OVER KDIK
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND AT KISN/KBIS AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING.
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AT KMOT/KJMS...BUT A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE LATE
AROUND 06Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-042-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-021.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ040-
041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 271236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 621 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FRIGID TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO THE EAST OF BROAD CLOUD COVER. HAVE
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS FRIGID WIND CHILLS
THIS MORNING OVER THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...ONLY UPDATE WAS TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST. WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AS
THEY ARE WITH SNOW STARTING TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST AS NOTED ON
BOWMAN ARB RADAR AND BAKER MONTANA OBBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE THREATS OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND
RAIN...AND ON ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED/CHANGED.

THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS
A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND ALSO THAT THE ADVANCE
OF WARMER AIR ALOFT IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE IMPLICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS MORNING IN THE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD BE ALL SNOW RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN. THE
CHANGEOVER TO A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST UNTIL AROUND NOON.

THUS HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES THAT HAD BEEN
ISSUED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANGES ARE AS FOLLOWS:

THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
HAD BEEN CHANGED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. REASONING: FIRST
EXPECTING SNOW...THEN A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

1) THE FAR SOUTHWEST (4 COUNTIES) WILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BY EVENING THE AREA
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST.

2) THE REST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING...AFTERNOON...AND EVENING.

3) THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL REMAIN
THE SAME: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOW EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT THE CHANGEOVER OR MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN WILL WARRANT
THE CONTINUATION OF THE ADVISORY.

TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE UP TO AN INCH IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...1-2 INCHES NORTHWEST...AND 2-3 INCHES
NORTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL ON
FRIDAY...ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY KEEPING THE MELTING
LAYER OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN AREA OF MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THIS WILL KEEP FREEZING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FROM EASTERN MONTANA
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO START WORKING ITS WAY IN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WARM LAYER ALOFT
WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANCES PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD AIR
FLOWS IN. NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS NOT FAR OFF PREVIOUS NIGHTS LOWS OVER MANY PARTS OF THE NORTH
AND WEST. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BECOME A CONCERN SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH.

ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A VERY COLD DAY IS EXPECTED...WITH
NORTHERN LOCATIONS HANGING AROUND THE ZERO MARK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...DROPPING TO NEAR 20 BELOW OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE
PATH OF THE SURFACE HIGH...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND TO AGAIN WARRANT
WIND CHILL CONCERNS. WARMER...THOUGH STILL BELOW
AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE KJMS AREA THIS MORNING...WITH OCNL
IFR CIGS. LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN DEVELOP IN THE WEST THIS
MORNING...MAINLY FROM 12Z-14Z AT KDIK...THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST
EAST AFTER 18Z. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX OVER KDIK
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND AT KISN/KBIS AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING.
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AT KMOT/KJMS...BUT A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE LATE
AROUND 06Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-042-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-021.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ040-
041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 271236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 621 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FRIGID TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO THE EAST OF BROAD CLOUD COVER. HAVE
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS FRIGID WIND CHILLS
THIS MORNING OVER THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...ONLY UPDATE WAS TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST. WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AS
THEY ARE WITH SNOW STARTING TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST AS NOTED ON
BOWMAN ARB RADAR AND BAKER MONTANA OBBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE THREATS OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND
RAIN...AND ON ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED/CHANGED.

THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS
A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND ALSO THAT THE ADVANCE
OF WARMER AIR ALOFT IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE IMPLICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS MORNING IN THE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD BE ALL SNOW RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN. THE
CHANGEOVER TO A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST UNTIL AROUND NOON.

THUS HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES THAT HAD BEEN
ISSUED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANGES ARE AS FOLLOWS:

THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
HAD BEEN CHANGED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. REASONING: FIRST
EXPECTING SNOW...THEN A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

1) THE FAR SOUTHWEST (4 COUNTIES) WILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BY EVENING THE AREA
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST.

2) THE REST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING...AFTERNOON...AND EVENING.

3) THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL REMAIN
THE SAME: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOW EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT THE CHANGEOVER OR MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN WILL WARRANT
THE CONTINUATION OF THE ADVISORY.

TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE UP TO AN INCH IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...1-2 INCHES NORTHWEST...AND 2-3 INCHES
NORTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL ON
FRIDAY...ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY KEEPING THE MELTING
LAYER OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN AREA OF MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THIS WILL KEEP FREEZING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FROM EASTERN MONTANA
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO START WORKING ITS WAY IN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WARM LAYER ALOFT
WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANCES PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD AIR
FLOWS IN. NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS NOT FAR OFF PREVIOUS NIGHTS LOWS OVER MANY PARTS OF THE NORTH
AND WEST. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BECOME A CONCERN SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH.

ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A VERY COLD DAY IS EXPECTED...WITH
NORTHERN LOCATIONS HANGING AROUND THE ZERO MARK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...DROPPING TO NEAR 20 BELOW OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE
PATH OF THE SURFACE HIGH...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND TO AGAIN WARRANT
WIND CHILL CONCERNS. WARMER...THOUGH STILL BELOW
AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE KJMS AREA THIS MORNING...WITH OCNL
IFR CIGS. LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN DEVELOP IN THE WEST THIS
MORNING...MAINLY FROM 12Z-14Z AT KDIK...THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST
EAST AFTER 18Z. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX OVER KDIK
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND AT KISN/KBIS AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING.
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AT KMOT/KJMS...BUT A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE LATE
AROUND 06Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-042-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-021.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ040-
041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KFGF 271225
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
625 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW TONIGHT THEN CONTINUATION OF
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT...AND PREFER THE NAM THAT HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL START OUT VERY COLD WITH TEMPS BELOW ZERO. WE
COULD GET INTO WIND CHILL ADVY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING...BUT WITH WINDS UNDER 10 MPH WON/T ISSUE HEADLINE ATTM.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
WEST...BUT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND VERY COLD WITH HIGH IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET WILL
COINCIDE WITH STRONG WAA IN THE 850-700MB LAYER AND FGEN. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN ORGANIZED BAND OF SNOW THAT SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A BAND OF 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW
FROM DVL- GFK INTO BJI AREA...AND THERE COULD BE A LOCALIZED
REPORT OF 5. THIS COUPLED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
25MPH OVERNIGHT...COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW IF WINDS INCREASE A BIT MORE. WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 00Z IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...THEN AT 03Z FROM
GFK-BJI CORRIDOR AND RUN IT UNTIL 18Z FRI TO CAPTURE THIS FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP. TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR SOME
MIXED PRECIP LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS THE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD END FRIDAY MORNING AND LINGER A BIT INTO FRI AFTERNOON IN
THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FOR FRI NIGHT...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE NORTH AND THERE COULD
BE MIXED PRECIP IN THE NORTHER 2/3 OF THE REGION. EXPECT MOST OF
THE MEASURABLE QPF TO BE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND IN
CANADA...NEAR THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ON SAT
AND COULD REACH NEAR FREEZING...PERHAPS INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
SOUTH IF THERE IS ANY INSOLATION AT ALL. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL...SO SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

ON SAT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
BY SAT EVENING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SOME BLOWING SNOW GIVEN
THE CLASSIC ARCTIC TYPE SOUNDINGS AND SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO
MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS IN OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. A 1040MB SFC HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE DAKOTAS...WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH LOWERING
THICKNESS VALUES. HOWEVER...THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE SHORT LIVED
AS THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGES AGAIN. THE UPPER TROF ROTATES E ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO REBOUND...AND RETURN
FLOW BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN AND ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...WITH CONDITIONS
FALLING INTO THE MVFR AND IFR RANGE ONCE SNOW MOVES IN AROUND THE
00Z-03Z TIME FRAME. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE...AND COULD
GUST AROUND 40KT OVERNIGHT PRODUCING VSBYS AROUND 1/2SM AT TIMES
IN THE VALLEY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     FRIDAY FOR NDZ008-016-027-030.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     FRIDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-026-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     FRIDAY FOR MNZ001-002-004-007-008-013>017-022>024-027-028-
     031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 271225
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
625 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW TONIGHT THEN CONTINUATION OF
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT...AND PREFER THE NAM THAT HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL START OUT VERY COLD WITH TEMPS BELOW ZERO. WE
COULD GET INTO WIND CHILL ADVY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING...BUT WITH WINDS UNDER 10 MPH WON/T ISSUE HEADLINE ATTM.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
WEST...BUT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND VERY COLD WITH HIGH IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET WILL
COINCIDE WITH STRONG WAA IN THE 850-700MB LAYER AND FGEN. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN ORGANIZED BAND OF SNOW THAT SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A BAND OF 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW
FROM DVL- GFK INTO BJI AREA...AND THERE COULD BE A LOCALIZED
REPORT OF 5. THIS COUPLED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
25MPH OVERNIGHT...COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW IF WINDS INCREASE A BIT MORE. WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 00Z IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...THEN AT 03Z FROM
GFK-BJI CORRIDOR AND RUN IT UNTIL 18Z FRI TO CAPTURE THIS FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP. TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR SOME
MIXED PRECIP LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS THE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD END FRIDAY MORNING AND LINGER A BIT INTO FRI AFTERNOON IN
THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FOR FRI NIGHT...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE NORTH AND THERE COULD
BE MIXED PRECIP IN THE NORTHER 2/3 OF THE REGION. EXPECT MOST OF
THE MEASURABLE QPF TO BE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND IN
CANADA...NEAR THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ON SAT
AND COULD REACH NEAR FREEZING...PERHAPS INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
SOUTH IF THERE IS ANY INSOLATION AT ALL. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL...SO SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

ON SAT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
BY SAT EVENING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SOME BLOWING SNOW GIVEN
THE CLASSIC ARCTIC TYPE SOUNDINGS AND SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO
MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS IN OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. A 1040MB SFC HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE DAKOTAS...WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH LOWERING
THICKNESS VALUES. HOWEVER...THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE SHORT LIVED
AS THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGES AGAIN. THE UPPER TROF ROTATES E ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO REBOUND...AND RETURN
FLOW BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN AND ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...WITH CONDITIONS
FALLING INTO THE MVFR AND IFR RANGE ONCE SNOW MOVES IN AROUND THE
00Z-03Z TIME FRAME. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE...AND COULD
GUST AROUND 40KT OVERNIGHT PRODUCING VSBYS AROUND 1/2SM AT TIMES
IN THE VALLEY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     FRIDAY FOR NDZ008-016-027-030.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     FRIDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-026-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     FRIDAY FOR MNZ001-002-004-007-008-013>017-022>024-027-028-
     031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KBIS 270946
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
346 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE THREATS OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND
RAIN...AND ON ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED/CHANGED.

THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS
A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND ALSO THAT THE ADVANCE
OF WARMER AIR ALOFT IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE IMPLICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS MORNING IN THE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD BE ALL SNOW RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN. THE
CHANGEOVER TO A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST UNTIL AROUND NOON.

THUS HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES THAT HAD BEEN
ISSUED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANGES ARE AS FOLLOWS:

THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
HAD BEEN CHANGED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. REASONING: FIRST
EXPECTING SNOW...THEN A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

1) THE FAR SOUTHWEST (4 COUNTIES) WILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BY EVENING THE AREA
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST.

2) THE REST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING...AFTERNOON...AND EVENING.

3) THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL REMAIN
THE SAME: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOW EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT THE CHANGEOVER OR MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN WILL WARRANT
THE CONTINUATION OF THE ADVISORY.

TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE UP TO AN INCH IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...1-2 INCHES NORTHWEST...AND 2-3 INCHES
NORTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL ON
FRIDAY...ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY KEEPING THE MELTING
LAYER OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN AREA OF MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THIS WILL KEEP FREEZING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FROM EASTERN MONTANA
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO START WORKING ITS WAY IN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WARM LAYER ALOFT
WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANCES PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD AIR
FLOWS IN. NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS NOT FAR OFF PREVIOUS NIGHTS LOWS OVER MANY PARTS OF THE NORTH
AND WEST. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BECOME A CONCERN SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH.

ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A VERY COLD DAY IS EXPECTED...WITH
NORTHERN LOCATIONS HANGING AROUND THE ZERO MARK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...DROPPING TO NEAR 20 BELOW OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE
PATH OF THE SURFACE HIGH...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND TO AGAIN WARRANT
WIND CHILL CONCERNS. WARMER...THOUGH STILL BELOW
AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MVFR CIGS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH OCNL IFR CIGS. LIGHT SNOW
WILL THEN DEVELOP IN THE WEST THIS MORNING...MAINLY FROM 09Z-12Z AT
KDIK...THEN SPREAD EAST AROUND 18Z. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A
WINTRY MIX OVER KDIK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND AT KISN/KBIS AROUND
21Z...BUT REMAIN SNOW AT KMOT/KJMS. SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING
DETAILS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-042-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-021.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ040-
041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 270946
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
346 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE THREATS OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND
RAIN...AND ON ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED/CHANGED.

THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS
A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND ALSO THAT THE ADVANCE
OF WARMER AIR ALOFT IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE IMPLICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS MORNING IN THE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD BE ALL SNOW RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN. THE
CHANGEOVER TO A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST UNTIL AROUND NOON.

THUS HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES THAT HAD BEEN
ISSUED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANGES ARE AS FOLLOWS:

THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
HAD BEEN CHANGED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. REASONING: FIRST
EXPECTING SNOW...THEN A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

1) THE FAR SOUTHWEST (4 COUNTIES) WILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BY EVENING THE AREA
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST.

2) THE REST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING...AFTERNOON...AND EVENING.

3) THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL REMAIN
THE SAME: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOW EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT THE CHANGEOVER OR MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN WILL WARRANT
THE CONTINUATION OF THE ADVISORY.

TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE UP TO AN INCH IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...1-2 INCHES NORTHWEST...AND 2-3 INCHES
NORTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL ON
FRIDAY...ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY KEEPING THE MELTING
LAYER OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN AREA OF MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THIS WILL KEEP FREEZING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FROM EASTERN MONTANA
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO START WORKING ITS WAY IN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WARM LAYER ALOFT
WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANCES PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD AIR
FLOWS IN. NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS NOT FAR OFF PREVIOUS NIGHTS LOWS OVER MANY PARTS OF THE NORTH
AND WEST. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BECOME A CONCERN SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH.

ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A VERY COLD DAY IS EXPECTED...WITH
NORTHERN LOCATIONS HANGING AROUND THE ZERO MARK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...DROPPING TO NEAR 20 BELOW OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE
PATH OF THE SURFACE HIGH...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND TO AGAIN WARRANT
WIND CHILL CONCERNS. WARMER...THOUGH STILL BELOW
AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MVFR CIGS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH OCNL IFR CIGS. LIGHT SNOW
WILL THEN DEVELOP IN THE WEST THIS MORNING...MAINLY FROM 09Z-12Z AT
KDIK...THEN SPREAD EAST AROUND 18Z. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A
WINTRY MIX OVER KDIK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND AT KISN/KBIS AROUND
21Z...BUT REMAIN SNOW AT KMOT/KJMS. SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING
DETAILS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-042-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-021.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ040-
041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 270931
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW TONIGHT THEN CONTINUATION OF
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT...AND PREFER THE NAM THAT HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL START OUT VERY COLD WITH TEMPS BELOW ZERO. WE
COULD GET INTO WIND CHILL ADVY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING...BUT WITH WINDS UNDER 10 MPH WON/T ISSUE HEADLINE ATTM.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
WEST...BUT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND VERY COLD WITH HIGH IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET WILL
COINCIDE WITH STRONG WAA IN THE 850-700MB LAYER AND FGEN. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN ORGANIZED BAND OF SNOW THAT SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A BAND OF 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW
FROM DVL- GFK INTO BJI AREA...AND THERE COULD BE A LOCALIZED
REPORT OF 5. THIS COUPLED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
25MPH OVERNIGHT...COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW IF WINDS INCREASE A BIT MORE. WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 00Z IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...THEN AT 03Z FROM
GFK-BJI CORRIDOR AND RUN IT UNTIL 18Z FRI TO CAPTURE THIS FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP. TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR SOME
MIXED PRECIP LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS THE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD END FRIDAY MORNING AND LINGER A BIT INTO FRI AFTERNOON IN
THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FOR FRI NIGHT...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE NORTH AND THERE COULD
BE MIXED PRECIP IN THE NORTHER 2/3 OF THE REGION. EXPECT MOST OF
THE MEASURABLE QPF TO BE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND IN
CANADA...NEAR THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ON SAT
AND COULD REACH NEAR FREEZING...PERHAPS INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
SOUTH IF THERE IS ANY INSOLATION AT ALL. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL...SO SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

ON SAT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
BY SAT EVENING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SOME BLOWING SNOW GIVEN
THE CLASSIC ARCTIC TYPE SOUNDINGS AND SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO
MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS IN OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. A 1040MB SFC HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE DAKOTAS...WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH LOWERING
THICKNESS VALUES. HOWEVER...THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE SHORT LIVED
AS THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGES AGAIN. THE UPPER TROF ROTATES E ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO REBOUND...AND RETURN
FLOW BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN AND ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A CLEAR SKY WAS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THU. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES ROUGHLY AFTER SUNSET AS CIGS LOWER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     FRIDAY FOR NDZ008-016-027-030.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     FRIDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-026-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     FRIDAY FOR MNZ001-002-004-007-008-013>017-022>024-027-028-
     031-032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 270931
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW TONIGHT THEN CONTINUATION OF
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT...AND PREFER THE NAM THAT HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL START OUT VERY COLD WITH TEMPS BELOW ZERO. WE
COULD GET INTO WIND CHILL ADVY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING...BUT WITH WINDS UNDER 10 MPH WON/T ISSUE HEADLINE ATTM.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
WEST...BUT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND VERY COLD WITH HIGH IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET WILL
COINCIDE WITH STRONG WAA IN THE 850-700MB LAYER AND FGEN. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN ORGANIZED BAND OF SNOW THAT SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A BAND OF 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW
FROM DVL- GFK INTO BJI AREA...AND THERE COULD BE A LOCALIZED
REPORT OF 5. THIS COUPLED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
25MPH OVERNIGHT...COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW IF WINDS INCREASE A BIT MORE. WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 00Z IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...THEN AT 03Z FROM
GFK-BJI CORRIDOR AND RUN IT UNTIL 18Z FRI TO CAPTURE THIS FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP. TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR SOME
MIXED PRECIP LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS THE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD END FRIDAY MORNING AND LINGER A BIT INTO FRI AFTERNOON IN
THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FOR FRI NIGHT...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE NORTH AND THERE COULD
BE MIXED PRECIP IN THE NORTHER 2/3 OF THE REGION. EXPECT MOST OF
THE MEASURABLE QPF TO BE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND IN
CANADA...NEAR THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ON SAT
AND COULD REACH NEAR FREEZING...PERHAPS INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
SOUTH IF THERE IS ANY INSOLATION AT ALL. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL...SO SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

ON SAT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
BY SAT EVENING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SOME BLOWING SNOW GIVEN
THE CLASSIC ARCTIC TYPE SOUNDINGS AND SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO
MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS IN OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. A 1040MB SFC HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE DAKOTAS...WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH LOWERING
THICKNESS VALUES. HOWEVER...THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE SHORT LIVED
AS THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGES AGAIN. THE UPPER TROF ROTATES E ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO REBOUND...AND RETURN
FLOW BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN AND ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A CLEAR SKY WAS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THU. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES ROUGHLY AFTER SUNSET AS CIGS LOWER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     FRIDAY FOR NDZ008-016-027-030.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     FRIDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-026-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     FRIDAY FOR MNZ001-002-004-007-008-013>017-022>024-027-028-
     031-032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 270931
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW TONIGHT THEN CONTINUATION OF
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT...AND PREFER THE NAM THAT HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL START OUT VERY COLD WITH TEMPS BELOW ZERO. WE
COULD GET INTO WIND CHILL ADVY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING...BUT WITH WINDS UNDER 10 MPH WON/T ISSUE HEADLINE ATTM.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
WEST...BUT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND VERY COLD WITH HIGH IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET WILL
COINCIDE WITH STRONG WAA IN THE 850-700MB LAYER AND FGEN. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN ORGANIZED BAND OF SNOW THAT SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A BAND OF 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW
FROM DVL- GFK INTO BJI AREA...AND THERE COULD BE A LOCALIZED
REPORT OF 5. THIS COUPLED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
25MPH OVERNIGHT...COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW IF WINDS INCREASE A BIT MORE. WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 00Z IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...THEN AT 03Z FROM
GFK-BJI CORRIDOR AND RUN IT UNTIL 18Z FRI TO CAPTURE THIS FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP. TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR SOME
MIXED PRECIP LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS THE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD END FRIDAY MORNING AND LINGER A BIT INTO FRI AFTERNOON IN
THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FOR FRI NIGHT...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE NORTH AND THERE COULD
BE MIXED PRECIP IN THE NORTHER 2/3 OF THE REGION. EXPECT MOST OF
THE MEASURABLE QPF TO BE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND IN
CANADA...NEAR THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ON SAT
AND COULD REACH NEAR FREEZING...PERHAPS INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
SOUTH IF THERE IS ANY INSOLATION AT ALL. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL...SO SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

ON SAT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
BY SAT EVENING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SOME BLOWING SNOW GIVEN
THE CLASSIC ARCTIC TYPE SOUNDINGS AND SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO
MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS IN OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. A 1040MB SFC HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE DAKOTAS...WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH LOWERING
THICKNESS VALUES. HOWEVER...THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE SHORT LIVED
AS THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGES AGAIN. THE UPPER TROF ROTATES E ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO REBOUND...AND RETURN
FLOW BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN AND ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A CLEAR SKY WAS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THU. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES ROUGHLY AFTER SUNSET AS CIGS LOWER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     FRIDAY FOR NDZ008-016-027-030.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     FRIDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-026-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     FRIDAY FOR MNZ001-002-004-007-008-013>017-022>024-027-028-
     031-032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 270931
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW TONIGHT THEN CONTINUATION OF
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT...AND PREFER THE NAM THAT HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL START OUT VERY COLD WITH TEMPS BELOW ZERO. WE
COULD GET INTO WIND CHILL ADVY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING...BUT WITH WINDS UNDER 10 MPH WON/T ISSUE HEADLINE ATTM.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
WEST...BUT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND VERY COLD WITH HIGH IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET WILL
COINCIDE WITH STRONG WAA IN THE 850-700MB LAYER AND FGEN. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN ORGANIZED BAND OF SNOW THAT SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A BAND OF 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW
FROM DVL- GFK INTO BJI AREA...AND THERE COULD BE A LOCALIZED
REPORT OF 5. THIS COUPLED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
25MPH OVERNIGHT...COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW IF WINDS INCREASE A BIT MORE. WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 00Z IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...THEN AT 03Z FROM
GFK-BJI CORRIDOR AND RUN IT UNTIL 18Z FRI TO CAPTURE THIS FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP. TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR SOME
MIXED PRECIP LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS THE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD END FRIDAY MORNING AND LINGER A BIT INTO FRI AFTERNOON IN
THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FOR FRI NIGHT...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE NORTH AND THERE COULD
BE MIXED PRECIP IN THE NORTHER 2/3 OF THE REGION. EXPECT MOST OF
THE MEASURABLE QPF TO BE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND IN
CANADA...NEAR THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ON SAT
AND COULD REACH NEAR FREEZING...PERHAPS INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
SOUTH IF THERE IS ANY INSOLATION AT ALL. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL...SO SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

ON SAT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
BY SAT EVENING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SOME BLOWING SNOW GIVEN
THE CLASSIC ARCTIC TYPE SOUNDINGS AND SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO
MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS IN OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. A 1040MB SFC HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE DAKOTAS...WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH LOWERING
THICKNESS VALUES. HOWEVER...THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE SHORT LIVED
AS THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGES AGAIN. THE UPPER TROF ROTATES E ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO REBOUND...AND RETURN
FLOW BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN AND ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A CLEAR SKY WAS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THU. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES ROUGHLY AFTER SUNSET AS CIGS LOWER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     FRIDAY FOR NDZ008-016-027-030.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     FRIDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-026-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     FRIDAY FOR MNZ001-002-004-007-008-013>017-022>024-027-028-
     031-032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KBIS 270639
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1239 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA. CLEAR SKIES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA WITH LIGHT WINDS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET
WELL BELOW ZERO. SEVERAL SITES REPORTING 20-25 BELOW ZERO FROM THE
MINOT AFB TO THE JAMES VALLEY. LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT GOING WEST
AS CLOUDS MOVE/DEVELOP EASTWARD. BISMARCK WAS AT -11 UNDER CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT MANDAN ALREADY HAD THE LOW CLOUDS AND WAS
AT -2. THE FAR SOUTHWEST SITES WERE REPORTING THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
SOME WIND CHILLS STILL AT -25 TO -39 WITH LIGHT EAST OR SOUTH WINDS
OF 5 TO 8 MPH. THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS ADDRESSED THIS. RADAR RETURNS INDICATE EITHER VIRGA OR LIGHT
SNOW IN THE BOWMAN AREA...BUT NO SITES REPORTING LIGHT SNOW JUST
YET.

ASIDE FROM LOWERING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS MORNING...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. THE 9 PM CST OBSERVATION AT THE
MINOT AFB WAS A WIND CHILL OF 39 BELOW ZERO. AREAS TOWARDS THE
TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN WERE ALSO
REPORTING WIND CHILLS AROUND 30 BELOW ZERO AS OF THIS WRITING.

CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...THESE WIND CHILLS SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR THE NEXT
THREE TO SIX HOURS.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF THESE WIND CHILLS...DECIDED
TO HANDLE THIS SITUATION WITH AN SPS FOR NOW. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WOULD ALSO CLUTTER THE CURRENT WSW FOR THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GET EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
TAKES OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

JAMESTOWN DROPPED FROM ONE DEGREE TO 6 BELOW ZERO OVER THE LAST
HOUR. THE FORECAST LOW OF 12 BELOW ZERO LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET FOR
NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED BASED ON EVENING OBS/TRENDS.
BOTTOM LINE...IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT. AT LEAST THE WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE FORECAST ISSUE TODAY WILL CENTER ON FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL THURSDAY AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH CENTRAL NIGHT. SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER MANITOBA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT WILL SET
UP A GOOD OVERRUNNING MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT ON THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE EVENING. THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ERODED
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVE
NORTH SO EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SOUTHWEST BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND NOON. THEN THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN
EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF WILLISTON SOUTHEAST THROUGH GRANT
AND SIOUX COUNTIES. THE TIMING OF THIS AREA WILL BE FROM NOON
UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE...COLDER AIR OVER THE NORTH
WILL ASSURE THE PRECIPITATION IS SNOW...WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED
BY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THIS A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED SOUTHWEST...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH FOR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.

12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/NAM/GEM GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN PUSH OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL NOT REACH NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS. THUS...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG MELTING LAYER ALOFT JUSTIFY KEEPING A WINTRY MIX
IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST UNTIL COLD AIR ADVECTION WASHES
OUT THE MELTING LAYER.

THEREAFTER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM
GLOBAL AND 06 UTC GEFS THAT QUASI-ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. VERY LIGHT MODEL
QPF AND TIMING ISSUES MAKE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION VERY SMALL WHEN
BLENDING...THOUGH THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST A COUPLE WAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW. SUBSEQUENT
MODEL CYCLES SHOULD PROVIDE MORE CLARITY ON THIS ISSUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MVFR CIGS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH OCNL IFR CIGS. LIGHT SNOW
WILL THEN DEVELOP IN THE WEST THIS MORNING...MAINLY FROM 09Z-12Z AT
KDIK...THEN SPREAD EAST AROUND 18Z. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A
WINTRY MIX OVER KDIK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND AT KISN/KBIS AROUND
21Z...BUT REMAIN SNOW AT KMOT/KJMS. SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING
DETAILS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-042-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-021.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR
NDZ040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KFGF 270544
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL IN FAVORED AREAS...FSE AND NEW SNOWFALL AREAS
IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. LOW TEMPS TWEAKED DOWN A BIT. TOOK CLOUDS
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED DOWN THE RED RIVER. WILL LOWER TEMPS WITH
FRESH SNOW COVER OVER SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL
WITH FALLING TEMPS. WILL LOWER TEMPS FOR TONIGHT MOST AREAS. NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NW TO SE ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER WAS UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN
THE WESTERN ZONES BY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST WEST
OF THE RED RIVER. TEMPS ALREADY BELOW ZERO OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. TWEAKED WINDS A BIT FOR TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS WELL AS TIMING AND AMOUNT OF SNOW THANKSGIVING NIGHT. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP INTO THE VALLEY TONIGHT AND BRING A VERY
COLD AND DRY AIR MASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. A CLIPPER THEN MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA
TOMORROW NIGHT AND A BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. HAVE USED A BLEND OF NAM DNG AND HRRR FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT AND A MODEL BLEND FOR THE THANKSGIVING NIGHT SYSTEM
AS THERE ARE STILL VARIATIONS ON THE PLACEMENT OF SNOW.

TONIGHT...CURRENT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING LINE HAS MADE IT AS
FAR SOUTH OF I 94. DEW POINTS NORTH OF THIS MID CLOUD DECK ARE
ALREADY 5 TO 10 BELOW AND IN THE MID TEENS BELOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OUT OF A HIGH OVER MANITOBA WILL
BRING CALM WINDS TO THE DVL REGION EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WITH
A LIGHT COVERING OF FRESH SNOW THE TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY DROP TO 5
TO 10 BELOW THIS EVENING. BY MORNING...RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN REGION UP THROUGH
TOWNER/PEMBINA/CAVALIER COUNTIES. THIS WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO
DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 BELOW RANGE TONIGHT...AND EVENING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS COLDER TEMPS WOULD BRING AREA INTO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA (LESS THAN 25 BELOW ZERO). WARMEST
TEMPS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS THE CURRENT MID CLOUDS
WILL DELAY RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECT THAT AREA TO CLEAR OUT BY 02Z TO 03Z. DEW
POINTS ARE ABOUT 10 DEG HIGHER IN THIS REGION SO NOT LOOKING FOR
AS SIGNIFICANT OF A DROP OFF. RIDGE AXIS SHOULD THEN BE OVER THE
EAST TOMORROW MORNING AND TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 10 BELOW.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WILL LIMIT
DAYTIME HIGHS DESPITE SOME SOLAR IN THE MORNING BEFORE WE SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO BREAK 10 ABOVE. BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SET UP OVER WESTERN ND TOMORROW
MORNING AND MOVE INTO CNTRL ND IN THE AFTN. A BAND OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT INTENSIFIES AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z. NAM 280K ISENTROPIC SFC WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE ARE
DIRECTLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO LIFT THE PARCEL ABOUT 100 MB...WITH NEARLY SATURATED
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS
STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SNOW...WITH ECMWF A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN THE 18Z NAM AND 12Z GFS. HPC QPF
GUIDANCE PREFERS THE SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD SOLUTION...AND HAVE
UPDATED SNOW RATIOS TO YIELD 3 TO 4 INCHES IN NORTH OF THE DEVILS
LAKE REGION DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FRIDAY...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MORNING BUT
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN VALLEY
WILL HAVE ANOTHER TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW.  MOTORISTS IN
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA CAN EXPECT LESS THAN DESIRABLE DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR BLACK FRIDAY SHOPPING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER SFC LOW ENTERS EASTERN MT FRI AFTN AND
MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUING TO DIFFER ON
QPF AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SECOND SHOT OF SNOW. GFS IS THE
MOST BULLISH AND BRINGS SOUTHERN EDGE OF SNOW BAND DOWN TO THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR WHILE THE NAME IS FAIRLY DRY AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF INTL BORDER. DO TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY
WILL USE CONTINUITY AS SOLUTION...WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK MID DAY BETWEEN
THE TWO SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEMS SHOULD THE SNOW SET UP ALONG AND
NORTH OF HWY 200...THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE WARMER ON FRIDAY AND JUMP
INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AS NW SFC FLOW SETS UP...WHILE THE NAM REMAINS
DRY. WILL KEEP CONTINUITY FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL...ALTHOUGH ANY
SNOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS START OUT IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT...PUSHING A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME 30ISH POPS FOR WHEN THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES...THEN DRYING OUT INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

MODEL CONSENSUS STARTS TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
IS MORE ACTIVE AND BRING A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND THE CWA SHOWING
SOME STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT COMES IN. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND DRIER. ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD...SO FOR NOW KEPT ONLY MINIMAL
POPS AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS ONE OF THE WETTER SOLUTIONS. TEMPS
SHOULD SEE SOME WARMING ON TUESDAY AND COLDER AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT EVEN THE HIGHER TEMP DAYS WILL STILL BE BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A CLEAR SKY WAS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THU. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES ROUGHLY AFTER SUNSET AS CIGS LOWER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 270407
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1007 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED DOWN THE RED RIVER. WILL LOWER TEMPS WITH
FRESH SNOW COVER OVER SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL
WITH FALLING TEMPS. WILL LOWER TEMPS FOR TONIGHT MOST AREAS. NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NW TO SE ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER WAS UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN
THE WESTERN ZONES BY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST WEST
OF THE RED RIVER. TEMPS ALREADY BELOW ZERO OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. TWEAKED WINDS A BIT FOR TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS WELL AS TIMING AND AMOUNT OF SNOW THANKSGIVING NIGHT. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP INTO THE VALLEY TONIGHT AND BRING A VERY
COLD AND DRY AIR MASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. A CLIPPER THEN MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA
TOMORROW NIGHT AND A BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. HAVE USED A BLEND OF NAM DNG AND HRRR FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT AND A MODEL BLEND FOR THE THANKSGIVING NIGHT SYSTEM
AS THERE ARE STILL VARIATIONS ON THE PLACEMENT OF SNOW.

TONIGHT...CURRENT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING LINE HAS MADE IT AS
FAR SOUTH OF I 94. DEW POINTS NORTH OF THIS MID CLOUD DECK ARE
ALREADY 5 TO 10 BELOW AND IN THE MID TEENS BELOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OUT OF A HIGH OVER MANITOBA WILL
BRING CALM WINDS TO THE DVL REGION EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WITH
A LIGHT COVERING OF FRESH SNOW THE TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY DROP TO 5
TO 10 BELOW THIS EVENING. BY MORNING...RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN REGION UP THROUGH
TOWNER/PEMBINA/CAVALIER COUNTIES. THIS WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO
DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 BELOW RANGE TONIGHT...AND EVENING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS COLDER TEMPS WOULD BRING AREA INTO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA (LESS THAN 25 BELOW ZERO). WARMEST
TEMPS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS THE CURRENT MID CLOUDS
WILL DELAY RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECT THAT AREA TO CLEAR OUT BY 02Z TO 03Z. DEW
POINTS ARE ABOUT 10 DEG HIGHER IN THIS REGION SO NOT LOOKING FOR
AS SIGNIFICANT OF A DROP OFF. RIDGE AXIS SHOULD THEN BE OVER THE
EAST TOMORROW MORNING AND TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 10 BELOW.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WILL LIMIT
DAYTIME HIGHS DESPITE SOME SOLAR IN THE MORNING BEFORE WE SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO BREAK 10 ABOVE. BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SET UP OVER WESTERN ND TOMORROW
MORNING AND MOVE INTO CNTRL ND IN THE AFTN. A BAND OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT INTENSIFIES AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z. NAM 280K ISENTROPIC SFC WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE ARE
DIRECTLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO LIFT THE PARCEL ABOUT 100 MB...WITH NEARLY SATURATED
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS
STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SNOW...WITH ECMWF A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN THE 18Z NAM AND 12Z GFS. HPC QPF
GUIDANCE PREFERS THE SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD SOLUTION...AND HAVE
UPDATED SNOW RATIOS TO YIELD 3 TO 4 INCHES IN NORTH OF THE DEVILS
LAKE REGION DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FRIDAY...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MORNING BUT
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN VALLEY
WILL HAVE ANOTHER TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW.  MOTORISTS IN
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA CAN EXPECT LESS THAN DESIRABLE DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR BLACK FRIDAY SHOPPING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER SFC LOW ENTERS EASTERN MT FRI AFTN AND
MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUING TO DIFFER ON
QPF AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SECOND SHOT OF SNOW. GFS IS THE
MOST BULLISH AND BRINGS SOUTHERN EDGE OF SNOW BAND DOWN TO THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR WHILE THE NAME IS FAIRLY DRY AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF INTL BORDER. DO TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY
WILL USE CONTINUITY AS SOLUTION...WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK MID DAY BETWEEN
THE TWO SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEMS SHOULD THE SNOW SET UP ALONG AND
NORTH OF HWY 200...THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE WARMER ON FRIDAY AND JUMP
INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AS NW SFC FLOW SETS UP...WHILE THE NAM REMAINS
DRY. WILL KEEP CONTINUITY FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL...ALTHOUGH ANY
SNOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS START OUT IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT...PUSHING A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME 30ISH POPS FOR WHEN THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES...THEN DRYING OUT INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

MODEL CONSENSUS STARTS TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
IS MORE ACTIVE AND BRING A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND THE CWA SHOWING
SOME STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT COMES IN. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND DRIER. ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD...SO FOR NOW KEPT ONLY MINIMAL
POPS AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS ONE OF THE WETTER SOLUTIONS. TEMPS
SHOULD SEE SOME WARMING ON TUESDAY AND COLDER AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT EVEN THE HIGHER TEMP DAYS WILL STILL BE BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AND THU. CIRRUS CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CIGS SHOULD
LOWER TO AROUND 10 THOUSAND FT IN EASTERN ND...HIGHER IN THE EASTERN
ZONES THU AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 270407
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1007 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED DOWN THE RED RIVER. WILL LOWER TEMPS WITH
FRESH SNOW COVER OVER SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL
WITH FALLING TEMPS. WILL LOWER TEMPS FOR TONIGHT MOST AREAS. NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NW TO SE ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER WAS UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN
THE WESTERN ZONES BY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST WEST
OF THE RED RIVER. TEMPS ALREADY BELOW ZERO OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. TWEAKED WINDS A BIT FOR TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS WELL AS TIMING AND AMOUNT OF SNOW THANKSGIVING NIGHT. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP INTO THE VALLEY TONIGHT AND BRING A VERY
COLD AND DRY AIR MASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. A CLIPPER THEN MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA
TOMORROW NIGHT AND A BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. HAVE USED A BLEND OF NAM DNG AND HRRR FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT AND A MODEL BLEND FOR THE THANKSGIVING NIGHT SYSTEM
AS THERE ARE STILL VARIATIONS ON THE PLACEMENT OF SNOW.

TONIGHT...CURRENT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING LINE HAS MADE IT AS
FAR SOUTH OF I 94. DEW POINTS NORTH OF THIS MID CLOUD DECK ARE
ALREADY 5 TO 10 BELOW AND IN THE MID TEENS BELOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OUT OF A HIGH OVER MANITOBA WILL
BRING CALM WINDS TO THE DVL REGION EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WITH
A LIGHT COVERING OF FRESH SNOW THE TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY DROP TO 5
TO 10 BELOW THIS EVENING. BY MORNING...RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN REGION UP THROUGH
TOWNER/PEMBINA/CAVALIER COUNTIES. THIS WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO
DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 BELOW RANGE TONIGHT...AND EVENING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS COLDER TEMPS WOULD BRING AREA INTO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA (LESS THAN 25 BELOW ZERO). WARMEST
TEMPS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS THE CURRENT MID CLOUDS
WILL DELAY RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECT THAT AREA TO CLEAR OUT BY 02Z TO 03Z. DEW
POINTS ARE ABOUT 10 DEG HIGHER IN THIS REGION SO NOT LOOKING FOR
AS SIGNIFICANT OF A DROP OFF. RIDGE AXIS SHOULD THEN BE OVER THE
EAST TOMORROW MORNING AND TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 10 BELOW.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WILL LIMIT
DAYTIME HIGHS DESPITE SOME SOLAR IN THE MORNING BEFORE WE SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO BREAK 10 ABOVE. BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SET UP OVER WESTERN ND TOMORROW
MORNING AND MOVE INTO CNTRL ND IN THE AFTN. A BAND OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT INTENSIFIES AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z. NAM 280K ISENTROPIC SFC WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE ARE
DIRECTLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO LIFT THE PARCEL ABOUT 100 MB...WITH NEARLY SATURATED
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS
STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SNOW...WITH ECMWF A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN THE 18Z NAM AND 12Z GFS. HPC QPF
GUIDANCE PREFERS THE SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD SOLUTION...AND HAVE
UPDATED SNOW RATIOS TO YIELD 3 TO 4 INCHES IN NORTH OF THE DEVILS
LAKE REGION DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FRIDAY...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MORNING BUT
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN VALLEY
WILL HAVE ANOTHER TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW.  MOTORISTS IN
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA CAN EXPECT LESS THAN DESIRABLE DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR BLACK FRIDAY SHOPPING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER SFC LOW ENTERS EASTERN MT FRI AFTN AND
MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUING TO DIFFER ON
QPF AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SECOND SHOT OF SNOW. GFS IS THE
MOST BULLISH AND BRINGS SOUTHERN EDGE OF SNOW BAND DOWN TO THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR WHILE THE NAME IS FAIRLY DRY AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF INTL BORDER. DO TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY
WILL USE CONTINUITY AS SOLUTION...WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK MID DAY BETWEEN
THE TWO SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEMS SHOULD THE SNOW SET UP ALONG AND
NORTH OF HWY 200...THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE WARMER ON FRIDAY AND JUMP
INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AS NW SFC FLOW SETS UP...WHILE THE NAM REMAINS
DRY. WILL KEEP CONTINUITY FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL...ALTHOUGH ANY
SNOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS START OUT IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT...PUSHING A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME 30ISH POPS FOR WHEN THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES...THEN DRYING OUT INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

MODEL CONSENSUS STARTS TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
IS MORE ACTIVE AND BRING A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND THE CWA SHOWING
SOME STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT COMES IN. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND DRIER. ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD...SO FOR NOW KEPT ONLY MINIMAL
POPS AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS ONE OF THE WETTER SOLUTIONS. TEMPS
SHOULD SEE SOME WARMING ON TUESDAY AND COLDER AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT EVEN THE HIGHER TEMP DAYS WILL STILL BE BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AND THU. CIRRUS CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CIGS SHOULD
LOWER TO AROUND 10 THOUSAND FT IN EASTERN ND...HIGHER IN THE EASTERN
ZONES THU AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 270407
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1007 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED DOWN THE RED RIVER. WILL LOWER TEMPS WITH
FRESH SNOW COVER OVER SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL
WITH FALLING TEMPS. WILL LOWER TEMPS FOR TONIGHT MOST AREAS. NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NW TO SE ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER WAS UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN
THE WESTERN ZONES BY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST WEST
OF THE RED RIVER. TEMPS ALREADY BELOW ZERO OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. TWEAKED WINDS A BIT FOR TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS WELL AS TIMING AND AMOUNT OF SNOW THANKSGIVING NIGHT. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP INTO THE VALLEY TONIGHT AND BRING A VERY
COLD AND DRY AIR MASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. A CLIPPER THEN MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA
TOMORROW NIGHT AND A BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. HAVE USED A BLEND OF NAM DNG AND HRRR FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT AND A MODEL BLEND FOR THE THANKSGIVING NIGHT SYSTEM
AS THERE ARE STILL VARIATIONS ON THE PLACEMENT OF SNOW.

TONIGHT...CURRENT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING LINE HAS MADE IT AS
FAR SOUTH OF I 94. DEW POINTS NORTH OF THIS MID CLOUD DECK ARE
ALREADY 5 TO 10 BELOW AND IN THE MID TEENS BELOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OUT OF A HIGH OVER MANITOBA WILL
BRING CALM WINDS TO THE DVL REGION EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WITH
A LIGHT COVERING OF FRESH SNOW THE TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY DROP TO 5
TO 10 BELOW THIS EVENING. BY MORNING...RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN REGION UP THROUGH
TOWNER/PEMBINA/CAVALIER COUNTIES. THIS WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO
DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 BELOW RANGE TONIGHT...AND EVENING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS COLDER TEMPS WOULD BRING AREA INTO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA (LESS THAN 25 BELOW ZERO). WARMEST
TEMPS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS THE CURRENT MID CLOUDS
WILL DELAY RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECT THAT AREA TO CLEAR OUT BY 02Z TO 03Z. DEW
POINTS ARE ABOUT 10 DEG HIGHER IN THIS REGION SO NOT LOOKING FOR
AS SIGNIFICANT OF A DROP OFF. RIDGE AXIS SHOULD THEN BE OVER THE
EAST TOMORROW MORNING AND TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 10 BELOW.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WILL LIMIT
DAYTIME HIGHS DESPITE SOME SOLAR IN THE MORNING BEFORE WE SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO BREAK 10 ABOVE. BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SET UP OVER WESTERN ND TOMORROW
MORNING AND MOVE INTO CNTRL ND IN THE AFTN. A BAND OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT INTENSIFIES AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z. NAM 280K ISENTROPIC SFC WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE ARE
DIRECTLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO LIFT THE PARCEL ABOUT 100 MB...WITH NEARLY SATURATED
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS
STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SNOW...WITH ECMWF A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN THE 18Z NAM AND 12Z GFS. HPC QPF
GUIDANCE PREFERS THE SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD SOLUTION...AND HAVE
UPDATED SNOW RATIOS TO YIELD 3 TO 4 INCHES IN NORTH OF THE DEVILS
LAKE REGION DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FRIDAY...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MORNING BUT
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN VALLEY
WILL HAVE ANOTHER TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW.  MOTORISTS IN
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA CAN EXPECT LESS THAN DESIRABLE DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR BLACK FRIDAY SHOPPING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER SFC LOW ENTERS EASTERN MT FRI AFTN AND
MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUING TO DIFFER ON
QPF AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SECOND SHOT OF SNOW. GFS IS THE
MOST BULLISH AND BRINGS SOUTHERN EDGE OF SNOW BAND DOWN TO THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR WHILE THE NAME IS FAIRLY DRY AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF INTL BORDER. DO TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY
WILL USE CONTINUITY AS SOLUTION...WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK MID DAY BETWEEN
THE TWO SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEMS SHOULD THE SNOW SET UP ALONG AND
NORTH OF HWY 200...THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE WARMER ON FRIDAY AND JUMP
INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AS NW SFC FLOW SETS UP...WHILE THE NAM REMAINS
DRY. WILL KEEP CONTINUITY FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL...ALTHOUGH ANY
SNOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS START OUT IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT...PUSHING A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME 30ISH POPS FOR WHEN THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES...THEN DRYING OUT INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

MODEL CONSENSUS STARTS TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
IS MORE ACTIVE AND BRING A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND THE CWA SHOWING
SOME STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT COMES IN. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND DRIER. ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD...SO FOR NOW KEPT ONLY MINIMAL
POPS AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS ONE OF THE WETTER SOLUTIONS. TEMPS
SHOULD SEE SOME WARMING ON TUESDAY AND COLDER AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT EVEN THE HIGHER TEMP DAYS WILL STILL BE BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AND THU. CIRRUS CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CIGS SHOULD
LOWER TO AROUND 10 THOUSAND FT IN EASTERN ND...HIGHER IN THE EASTERN
ZONES THU AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 270407
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1007 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED DOWN THE RED RIVER. WILL LOWER TEMPS WITH
FRESH SNOW COVER OVER SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL
WITH FALLING TEMPS. WILL LOWER TEMPS FOR TONIGHT MOST AREAS. NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NW TO SE ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER WAS UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN
THE WESTERN ZONES BY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST WEST
OF THE RED RIVER. TEMPS ALREADY BELOW ZERO OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. TWEAKED WINDS A BIT FOR TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS WELL AS TIMING AND AMOUNT OF SNOW THANKSGIVING NIGHT. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP INTO THE VALLEY TONIGHT AND BRING A VERY
COLD AND DRY AIR MASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. A CLIPPER THEN MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA
TOMORROW NIGHT AND A BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. HAVE USED A BLEND OF NAM DNG AND HRRR FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT AND A MODEL BLEND FOR THE THANKSGIVING NIGHT SYSTEM
AS THERE ARE STILL VARIATIONS ON THE PLACEMENT OF SNOW.

TONIGHT...CURRENT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING LINE HAS MADE IT AS
FAR SOUTH OF I 94. DEW POINTS NORTH OF THIS MID CLOUD DECK ARE
ALREADY 5 TO 10 BELOW AND IN THE MID TEENS BELOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OUT OF A HIGH OVER MANITOBA WILL
BRING CALM WINDS TO THE DVL REGION EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WITH
A LIGHT COVERING OF FRESH SNOW THE TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY DROP TO 5
TO 10 BELOW THIS EVENING. BY MORNING...RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN REGION UP THROUGH
TOWNER/PEMBINA/CAVALIER COUNTIES. THIS WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO
DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 BELOW RANGE TONIGHT...AND EVENING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS COLDER TEMPS WOULD BRING AREA INTO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA (LESS THAN 25 BELOW ZERO). WARMEST
TEMPS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS THE CURRENT MID CLOUDS
WILL DELAY RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECT THAT AREA TO CLEAR OUT BY 02Z TO 03Z. DEW
POINTS ARE ABOUT 10 DEG HIGHER IN THIS REGION SO NOT LOOKING FOR
AS SIGNIFICANT OF A DROP OFF. RIDGE AXIS SHOULD THEN BE OVER THE
EAST TOMORROW MORNING AND TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 10 BELOW.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WILL LIMIT
DAYTIME HIGHS DESPITE SOME SOLAR IN THE MORNING BEFORE WE SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO BREAK 10 ABOVE. BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SET UP OVER WESTERN ND TOMORROW
MORNING AND MOVE INTO CNTRL ND IN THE AFTN. A BAND OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT INTENSIFIES AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z. NAM 280K ISENTROPIC SFC WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE ARE
DIRECTLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO LIFT THE PARCEL ABOUT 100 MB...WITH NEARLY SATURATED
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS
STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SNOW...WITH ECMWF A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN THE 18Z NAM AND 12Z GFS. HPC QPF
GUIDANCE PREFERS THE SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD SOLUTION...AND HAVE
UPDATED SNOW RATIOS TO YIELD 3 TO 4 INCHES IN NORTH OF THE DEVILS
LAKE REGION DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FRIDAY...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MORNING BUT
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN VALLEY
WILL HAVE ANOTHER TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW.  MOTORISTS IN
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA CAN EXPECT LESS THAN DESIRABLE DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR BLACK FRIDAY SHOPPING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER SFC LOW ENTERS EASTERN MT FRI AFTN AND
MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUING TO DIFFER ON
QPF AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SECOND SHOT OF SNOW. GFS IS THE
MOST BULLISH AND BRINGS SOUTHERN EDGE OF SNOW BAND DOWN TO THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR WHILE THE NAME IS FAIRLY DRY AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF INTL BORDER. DO TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY
WILL USE CONTINUITY AS SOLUTION...WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK MID DAY BETWEEN
THE TWO SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEMS SHOULD THE SNOW SET UP ALONG AND
NORTH OF HWY 200...THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE WARMER ON FRIDAY AND JUMP
INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AS NW SFC FLOW SETS UP...WHILE THE NAM REMAINS
DRY. WILL KEEP CONTINUITY FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL...ALTHOUGH ANY
SNOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS START OUT IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT...PUSHING A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME 30ISH POPS FOR WHEN THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES...THEN DRYING OUT INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

MODEL CONSENSUS STARTS TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
IS MORE ACTIVE AND BRING A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND THE CWA SHOWING
SOME STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT COMES IN. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND DRIER. ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD...SO FOR NOW KEPT ONLY MINIMAL
POPS AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS ONE OF THE WETTER SOLUTIONS. TEMPS
SHOULD SEE SOME WARMING ON TUESDAY AND COLDER AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT EVEN THE HIGHER TEMP DAYS WILL STILL BE BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AND THU. CIRRUS CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CIGS SHOULD
LOWER TO AROUND 10 THOUSAND FT IN EASTERN ND...HIGHER IN THE EASTERN
ZONES THU AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KBIS 270401
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1001 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. THE 9 PM CST OBSERVATION AT THE
MINOT AFB WAS A WIND CHILL OF 39 BELOW ZERO. AREAS TOWARDS THE
TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN WERE ALSO
REPORTING WIND CHILLS AROUND 30 BELOW ZERO AS OF THIS WRITING.

CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...THESE WIND CHILLS SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR THE NEXT
THREE TO SIX HOURS.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF THESE WIND CHILLS...DECIDED
TO HANDLE THIS SITUATION WITH AN SPS FOR NOW. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WOULD ALSO CLUTTER THE CURRENT WSW FOR THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GET EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
TAKES OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

JAMESTOWN DROPPED FROM ONE DEGREE TO 6 BELOW ZERO OVER THE LAST
HOUR. THE FORECAST LOW OF 12 BELOW ZERO LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET FOR
NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED BASED ON EVENING OBS/TRENDS.
BOTTOM LINE...IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT. AT LEAST THE WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE FORECAST ISSUE TODAY WILL CENTER ON FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL THURSDAY AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH CENTRAL NIGHT. SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER MANITOBA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT WILL SET
UP A GOOD OVERRUNNING MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT ON THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE EVENING. THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ERODED
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVE
NORTH SO EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SOUTHWEST BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND NOON. THEN THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN
EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF WILLISTON SOUTHEAST THROUGH GRANT
AND SIOUX COUNTIES. THE TIMING OF THIS AREA WILL BE FROM NOON
UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE...COLDER AIR OVER THE NORTH
WILL ASSURE THE PRECIPITATION IS SNOW...WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED
BY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THIS A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED SOUTHWEST...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH FOR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.

12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/NAM/GEM GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN PUSH OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL NOT REACH NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS. THUS...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG MELTING LAYER ALOFT JUSTIFY KEEPING A WINTRY MIX
IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST UNTIL COLD AIR ADVECTION WASHES
OUT THE MELTING LAYER.

THEREAFTER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM
GLOBAL AND 06 UTC GEFS THAT QUASI-ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. VERY LIGHT MODEL
QPF AND TIMING ISSUES MAKE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION VERY SMALL WHEN
BLENDING...THOUGH THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST A COUPLE WAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW. SUBSEQUENT
MODEL CYCLES SHOULD PROVIDE MORE CLARITY ON THIS ISSUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CIGS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN DEVELOP WEST THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX OVER KDIK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
REMAIN SNOW ELSEWHERE. SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-
042-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-021.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR
NDZ040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 270401
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1001 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. THE 9 PM CST OBSERVATION AT THE
MINOT AFB WAS A WIND CHILL OF 39 BELOW ZERO. AREAS TOWARDS THE
TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN WERE ALSO
REPORTING WIND CHILLS AROUND 30 BELOW ZERO AS OF THIS WRITING.

CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...THESE WIND CHILLS SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR THE NEXT
THREE TO SIX HOURS.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF THESE WIND CHILLS...DECIDED
TO HANDLE THIS SITUATION WITH AN SPS FOR NOW. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WOULD ALSO CLUTTER THE CURRENT WSW FOR THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GET EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
TAKES OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

JAMESTOWN DROPPED FROM ONE DEGREE TO 6 BELOW ZERO OVER THE LAST
HOUR. THE FORECAST LOW OF 12 BELOW ZERO LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET FOR
NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED BASED ON EVENING OBS/TRENDS.
BOTTOM LINE...IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT. AT LEAST THE WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE FORECAST ISSUE TODAY WILL CENTER ON FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL THURSDAY AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH CENTRAL NIGHT. SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER MANITOBA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT WILL SET
UP A GOOD OVERRUNNING MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT ON THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE EVENING. THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ERODED
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVE
NORTH SO EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SOUTHWEST BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND NOON. THEN THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN
EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF WILLISTON SOUTHEAST THROUGH GRANT
AND SIOUX COUNTIES. THE TIMING OF THIS AREA WILL BE FROM NOON
UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE...COLDER AIR OVER THE NORTH
WILL ASSURE THE PRECIPITATION IS SNOW...WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED
BY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THIS A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED SOUTHWEST...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH FOR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.

12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/NAM/GEM GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN PUSH OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL NOT REACH NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS. THUS...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG MELTING LAYER ALOFT JUSTIFY KEEPING A WINTRY MIX
IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST UNTIL COLD AIR ADVECTION WASHES
OUT THE MELTING LAYER.

THEREAFTER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM
GLOBAL AND 06 UTC GEFS THAT QUASI-ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. VERY LIGHT MODEL
QPF AND TIMING ISSUES MAKE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION VERY SMALL WHEN
BLENDING...THOUGH THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST A COUPLE WAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW. SUBSEQUENT
MODEL CYCLES SHOULD PROVIDE MORE CLARITY ON THIS ISSUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CIGS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN DEVELOP WEST THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX OVER KDIK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
REMAIN SNOW ELSEWHERE. SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-
042-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-021.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR
NDZ040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 270401
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1001 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. THE 9 PM CST OBSERVATION AT THE
MINOT AFB WAS A WIND CHILL OF 39 BELOW ZERO. AREAS TOWARDS THE
TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN WERE ALSO
REPORTING WIND CHILLS AROUND 30 BELOW ZERO AS OF THIS WRITING.

CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...THESE WIND CHILLS SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR THE NEXT
THREE TO SIX HOURS.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF THESE WIND CHILLS...DECIDED
TO HANDLE THIS SITUATION WITH AN SPS FOR NOW. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WOULD ALSO CLUTTER THE CURRENT WSW FOR THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GET EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
TAKES OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

JAMESTOWN DROPPED FROM ONE DEGREE TO 6 BELOW ZERO OVER THE LAST
HOUR. THE FORECAST LOW OF 12 BELOW ZERO LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET FOR
NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED BASED ON EVENING OBS/TRENDS.
BOTTOM LINE...IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT. AT LEAST THE WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE FORECAST ISSUE TODAY WILL CENTER ON FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL THURSDAY AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH CENTRAL NIGHT. SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER MANITOBA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT WILL SET
UP A GOOD OVERRUNNING MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT ON THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE EVENING. THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ERODED
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVE
NORTH SO EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SOUTHWEST BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND NOON. THEN THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN
EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF WILLISTON SOUTHEAST THROUGH GRANT
AND SIOUX COUNTIES. THE TIMING OF THIS AREA WILL BE FROM NOON
UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE...COLDER AIR OVER THE NORTH
WILL ASSURE THE PRECIPITATION IS SNOW...WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED
BY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THIS A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED SOUTHWEST...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH FOR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.

12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/NAM/GEM GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN PUSH OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL NOT REACH NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS. THUS...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG MELTING LAYER ALOFT JUSTIFY KEEPING A WINTRY MIX
IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST UNTIL COLD AIR ADVECTION WASHES
OUT THE MELTING LAYER.

THEREAFTER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM
GLOBAL AND 06 UTC GEFS THAT QUASI-ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. VERY LIGHT MODEL
QPF AND TIMING ISSUES MAKE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION VERY SMALL WHEN
BLENDING...THOUGH THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST A COUPLE WAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW. SUBSEQUENT
MODEL CYCLES SHOULD PROVIDE MORE CLARITY ON THIS ISSUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CIGS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN DEVELOP WEST THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX OVER KDIK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
REMAIN SNOW ELSEWHERE. SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-
042-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-021.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR
NDZ040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 270401
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1001 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. THE 9 PM CST OBSERVATION AT THE
MINOT AFB WAS A WIND CHILL OF 39 BELOW ZERO. AREAS TOWARDS THE
TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN WERE ALSO
REPORTING WIND CHILLS AROUND 30 BELOW ZERO AS OF THIS WRITING.

CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...THESE WIND CHILLS SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR THE NEXT
THREE TO SIX HOURS.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF THESE WIND CHILLS...DECIDED
TO HANDLE THIS SITUATION WITH AN SPS FOR NOW. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WOULD ALSO CLUTTER THE CURRENT WSW FOR THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GET EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
TAKES OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

JAMESTOWN DROPPED FROM ONE DEGREE TO 6 BELOW ZERO OVER THE LAST
HOUR. THE FORECAST LOW OF 12 BELOW ZERO LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET FOR
NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED BASED ON EVENING OBS/TRENDS.
BOTTOM LINE...IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT. AT LEAST THE WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE FORECAST ISSUE TODAY WILL CENTER ON FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL THURSDAY AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH CENTRAL NIGHT. SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER MANITOBA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT WILL SET
UP A GOOD OVERRUNNING MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT ON THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE EVENING. THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ERODED
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVE
NORTH SO EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SOUTHWEST BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND NOON. THEN THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN
EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF WILLISTON SOUTHEAST THROUGH GRANT
AND SIOUX COUNTIES. THE TIMING OF THIS AREA WILL BE FROM NOON
UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE...COLDER AIR OVER THE NORTH
WILL ASSURE THE PRECIPITATION IS SNOW...WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED
BY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THIS A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED SOUTHWEST...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH FOR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.

12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/NAM/GEM GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN PUSH OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL NOT REACH NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS. THUS...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG MELTING LAYER ALOFT JUSTIFY KEEPING A WINTRY MIX
IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST UNTIL COLD AIR ADVECTION WASHES
OUT THE MELTING LAYER.

THEREAFTER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM
GLOBAL AND 06 UTC GEFS THAT QUASI-ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. VERY LIGHT MODEL
QPF AND TIMING ISSUES MAKE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION VERY SMALL WHEN
BLENDING...THOUGH THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST A COUPLE WAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW. SUBSEQUENT
MODEL CYCLES SHOULD PROVIDE MORE CLARITY ON THIS ISSUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CIGS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN DEVELOP WEST THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX OVER KDIK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
REMAIN SNOW ELSEWHERE. SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-
042-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-021.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR
NDZ040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 270401
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1001 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. THE 9 PM CST OBSERVATION AT THE
MINOT AFB WAS A WIND CHILL OF 39 BELOW ZERO. AREAS TOWARDS THE
TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN WERE ALSO
REPORTING WIND CHILLS AROUND 30 BELOW ZERO AS OF THIS WRITING.

CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...THESE WIND CHILLS SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR THE NEXT
THREE TO SIX HOURS.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF THESE WIND CHILLS...DECIDED
TO HANDLE THIS SITUATION WITH AN SPS FOR NOW. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WOULD ALSO CLUTTER THE CURRENT WSW FOR THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GET EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
TAKES OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

JAMESTOWN DROPPED FROM ONE DEGREE TO 6 BELOW ZERO OVER THE LAST
HOUR. THE FORECAST LOW OF 12 BELOW ZERO LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET FOR
NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED BASED ON EVENING OBS/TRENDS.
BOTTOM LINE...IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT. AT LEAST THE WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE FORECAST ISSUE TODAY WILL CENTER ON FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL THURSDAY AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH CENTRAL NIGHT. SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER MANITOBA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT WILL SET
UP A GOOD OVERRUNNING MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT ON THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE EVENING. THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ERODED
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVE
NORTH SO EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SOUTHWEST BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND NOON. THEN THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN
EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF WILLISTON SOUTHEAST THROUGH GRANT
AND SIOUX COUNTIES. THE TIMING OF THIS AREA WILL BE FROM NOON
UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE...COLDER AIR OVER THE NORTH
WILL ASSURE THE PRECIPITATION IS SNOW...WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED
BY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THIS A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED SOUTHWEST...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH FOR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.

12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/NAM/GEM GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN PUSH OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL NOT REACH NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS. THUS...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG MELTING LAYER ALOFT JUSTIFY KEEPING A WINTRY MIX
IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST UNTIL COLD AIR ADVECTION WASHES
OUT THE MELTING LAYER.

THEREAFTER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM
GLOBAL AND 06 UTC GEFS THAT QUASI-ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. VERY LIGHT MODEL
QPF AND TIMING ISSUES MAKE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION VERY SMALL WHEN
BLENDING...THOUGH THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST A COUPLE WAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW. SUBSEQUENT
MODEL CYCLES SHOULD PROVIDE MORE CLARITY ON THIS ISSUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CIGS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN DEVELOP WEST THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX OVER KDIK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
REMAIN SNOW ELSEWHERE. SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-
042-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-021.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR
NDZ040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KFGF 270059
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
659 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NW TO SE ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER WAS UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN
THE WESTERN ZONES BY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST WEST
OF THE RED RIVER. TEMPS ALREADY BELOW ZERO OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. TWEAKED WINDS A BIT FOR TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS WELL AS TIMING AND AMOUNT OF SNOW THANKSGIVING NIGHT. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP INTO THE VALLEY TONIGHT AND BRING A VERY
COLD AND DRY AIR MASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. A CLIPPER THEN MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA
TOMORROW NIGHT AND A BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. HAVE USED A BLEND OF NAM DNG AND HRRR FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT AND A MODEL BLEND FOR THE THANKSGIVING NIGHT SYSTEM
AS THERE ARE STILL VARIATIONS ON THE PLACEMENT OF SNOW.

TONIGHT...CURRENT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING LINE HAS MADE IT AS
FAR SOUTH OF I 94. DEW POINTS NORTH OF THIS MID CLOUD DECK ARE
ALREADY 5 TO 10 BELOW AND IN THE MID TEENS BELOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OUT OF A HIGH OVER MANITOBA WILL
BRING CALM WINDS TO THE DVL REGION EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WITH
A LIGHT COVERING OF FRESH SNOW THE TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY DROP TO 5
TO 10 BELOW THIS EVENING. BY MORNING...RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN REGION UP THROUGH
TOWNER/PEMBINA/CAVALIER COUNTIES. THIS WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO
DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 BELOW RANGE TONIGHT...AND EVENING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS COLDER TEMPS WOULD BRING AREA INTO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA (LESS THAN 25 BELOW ZERO). WARMEST
TEMPS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS THE CURRENT MID CLOUDS
WILL DELAY RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECT THAT AREA TO CLEAR OUT BY 02Z TO 03Z. DEW
POINTS ARE ABOUT 10 DEG HIGHER IN THIS REGION SO NOT LOOKING FOR
AS SIGNIFICANT OF A DROP OFF. RIDGE AXIS SHOULD THEN BE OVER THE
EAST TOMORROW MORNING AND TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 10 BELOW.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WILL LIMIT
DAYTIME HIGHS DESPITE SOME SOLAR IN THE MORNING BEFORE WE SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO BREAK 10 ABOVE. BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SET UP OVER WESTERN ND TOMORROW
MORNING AND MOVE INTO CNTRL ND IN THE AFTN. A BAND OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT INTENSIFIES AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z. NAM 280K ISENTROPIC SFC WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE ARE
DIRECTLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO LIFT THE PARCEL ABOUT 100 MB...WITH NEARLY SATURATED
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS
STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SNOW...WITH ECMWF A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN THE 18Z NAM AND 12Z GFS. HPC QPF
GUIDANCE PREFERS THE SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD SOLUTION...AND HAVE
UPDATED SNOW RATIOS TO YIELD 3 TO 4 INCHES IN NORTH OF THE DEVILS
LAKE REGION DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FRIDAY...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MORNING BUT
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN VALLEY
WILL HAVE ANOTHER TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW.  MOTORISTS IN
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA CAN EXPECT LESS THAN DESIRABLE DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR BLACK FRIDAY SHOPPING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER SFC LOW ENTERS EASTERN MT FRI AFTN AND
MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUING TO DIFFER ON
QPF AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SECOND SHOT OF SNOW. GFS IS THE
MOST BULLISH AND BRINGS SOUTHERN EDGE OF SNOW BAND DOWN TO THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR WHILE THE NAME IS FAIRLY DRY AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF INTL BORDER. DO TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY
WILL USE CONTINUITY AS SOLUTION...WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK MID DAY BETWEEN
THE TWO SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEMS SHOULD THE SNOW SET UP ALONG AND
NORTH OF HWY 200...THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE WARMER ON FRIDAY AND JUMP
INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AS NW SFC FLOW SETS UP...WHILE THE NAM REMAINS
DRY. WILL KEEP CONTINUITY FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL...ALTHOUGH ANY
SNOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS START OUT IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT...PUSHING A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME 30ISH POPS FOR WHEN THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES...THEN DRYING OUT INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

MODEL CONSENSUS STARTS TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
IS MORE ACTIVE AND BRING A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND THE CWA SHOWING
SOME STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT COMES IN. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND DRIER. ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD...SO FOR NOW KEPT ONLY MINIMAL
POPS AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS ONE OF THE WETTER SOLUTIONS. TEMPS
SHOULD SEE SOME WARMING ON TUESDAY AND COLDER AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT EVEN THE HIGHER TEMP DAYS WILL STILL BE BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AND THU. CIRRUS CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CIGS SHOULD
LOWER TO AROUND 10 THOUSAND FT IN EASTERN ND...HIGHER IN THE EASTERN
ZONES THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 270059
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
659 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NW TO SE ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER WAS UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN
THE WESTERN ZONES BY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST WEST
OF THE RED RIVER. TEMPS ALREADY BELOW ZERO OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. TWEAKED WINDS A BIT FOR TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS WELL AS TIMING AND AMOUNT OF SNOW THANKSGIVING NIGHT. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP INTO THE VALLEY TONIGHT AND BRING A VERY
COLD AND DRY AIR MASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. A CLIPPER THEN MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA
TOMORROW NIGHT AND A BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. HAVE USED A BLEND OF NAM DNG AND HRRR FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT AND A MODEL BLEND FOR THE THANKSGIVING NIGHT SYSTEM
AS THERE ARE STILL VARIATIONS ON THE PLACEMENT OF SNOW.

TONIGHT...CURRENT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING LINE HAS MADE IT AS
FAR SOUTH OF I 94. DEW POINTS NORTH OF THIS MID CLOUD DECK ARE
ALREADY 5 TO 10 BELOW AND IN THE MID TEENS BELOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OUT OF A HIGH OVER MANITOBA WILL
BRING CALM WINDS TO THE DVL REGION EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WITH
A LIGHT COVERING OF FRESH SNOW THE TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY DROP TO 5
TO 10 BELOW THIS EVENING. BY MORNING...RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN REGION UP THROUGH
TOWNER/PEMBINA/CAVALIER COUNTIES. THIS WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO
DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 BELOW RANGE TONIGHT...AND EVENING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS COLDER TEMPS WOULD BRING AREA INTO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA (LESS THAN 25 BELOW ZERO). WARMEST
TEMPS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS THE CURRENT MID CLOUDS
WILL DELAY RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECT THAT AREA TO CLEAR OUT BY 02Z TO 03Z. DEW
POINTS ARE ABOUT 10 DEG HIGHER IN THIS REGION SO NOT LOOKING FOR
AS SIGNIFICANT OF A DROP OFF. RIDGE AXIS SHOULD THEN BE OVER THE
EAST TOMORROW MORNING AND TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 10 BELOW.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WILL LIMIT
DAYTIME HIGHS DESPITE SOME SOLAR IN THE MORNING BEFORE WE SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO BREAK 10 ABOVE. BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SET UP OVER WESTERN ND TOMORROW
MORNING AND MOVE INTO CNTRL ND IN THE AFTN. A BAND OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT INTENSIFIES AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z. NAM 280K ISENTROPIC SFC WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE ARE
DIRECTLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO LIFT THE PARCEL ABOUT 100 MB...WITH NEARLY SATURATED
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS
STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SNOW...WITH ECMWF A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN THE 18Z NAM AND 12Z GFS. HPC QPF
GUIDANCE PREFERS THE SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD SOLUTION...AND HAVE
UPDATED SNOW RATIOS TO YIELD 3 TO 4 INCHES IN NORTH OF THE DEVILS
LAKE REGION DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FRIDAY...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MORNING BUT
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN VALLEY
WILL HAVE ANOTHER TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW.  MOTORISTS IN
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA CAN EXPECT LESS THAN DESIRABLE DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR BLACK FRIDAY SHOPPING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER SFC LOW ENTERS EASTERN MT FRI AFTN AND
MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUING TO DIFFER ON
QPF AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SECOND SHOT OF SNOW. GFS IS THE
MOST BULLISH AND BRINGS SOUTHERN EDGE OF SNOW BAND DOWN TO THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR WHILE THE NAME IS FAIRLY DRY AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF INTL BORDER. DO TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY
WILL USE CONTINUITY AS SOLUTION...WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK MID DAY BETWEEN
THE TWO SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEMS SHOULD THE SNOW SET UP ALONG AND
NORTH OF HWY 200...THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE WARMER ON FRIDAY AND JUMP
INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AS NW SFC FLOW SETS UP...WHILE THE NAM REMAINS
DRY. WILL KEEP CONTINUITY FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL...ALTHOUGH ANY
SNOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS START OUT IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT...PUSHING A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME 30ISH POPS FOR WHEN THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES...THEN DRYING OUT INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

MODEL CONSENSUS STARTS TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
IS MORE ACTIVE AND BRING A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND THE CWA SHOWING
SOME STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT COMES IN. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND DRIER. ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD...SO FOR NOW KEPT ONLY MINIMAL
POPS AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS ONE OF THE WETTER SOLUTIONS. TEMPS
SHOULD SEE SOME WARMING ON TUESDAY AND COLDER AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT EVEN THE HIGHER TEMP DAYS WILL STILL BE BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AND THU. CIRRUS CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CIGS SHOULD
LOWER TO AROUND 10 THOUSAND FT IN EASTERN ND...HIGHER IN THE EASTERN
ZONES THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KBIS 262352
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
552 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GET EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
TAKES OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

JAMESTOWN DROPPED FROM ONE DEGREE TO 6 BELOW ZERO OVER THE LAST
HOUR. THE FORECAST LOW OF 12 BELOW ZERO LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET FOR
NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED BASED ON EVENING OBS/TRENDS.
BOTTOM LINE...IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT. AT LEAST THE WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE FORECAST ISSUE TODAY WILL CENTER ON FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL THURSDAY AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH CENTRAL NIGHT. SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER MANITOBA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT WILL SET
UP A GOOD OVERRUNNING MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT ON THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE EVENING. THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ERODED
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVE
NORTH SO EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SOUTHWEST BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND NOON. THEN THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN
EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF WILLISTON SOUTHEAST THROUGH GRANT
AND SIOUX COUNTIES. THE TIMING OF THIS AREA WILL BE FROM NOON
UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE...COLDER AIR OVER THE NORTH
WILL ASSURE THE PRECIPITATION IS SNOW...WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED
BY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THIS A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED SOUTHWEST...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH FOR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.

12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/NAM/GEM GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN PUSH OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL NOT REACH NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS. THUS...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG MELTING LAYER ALOFT JUSTIFY KEEPING A WINTRY MIX
IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST UNTIL COLD AIR ADVECTION WASHES
OUT THE MELTING LAYER.

THEREAFTER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM
GLOBAL AND 06 UTC GEFS THAT QUASI-ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. VERY LIGHT MODEL
QPF AND TIMING ISSUES MAKE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION VERY SMALL WHEN
BLENDING...THOUGH THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST A COUPLE WAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW. SUBSEQUENT
MODEL CYCLES SHOULD PROVIDE MORE CLARITY ON THIS ISSUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CIGS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN DEVELOP WEST THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX OVER KDIK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
REMAIN SNOW ELSEWHERE. SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-
042-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-021.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR
NDZ040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...TM




000
FXUS63 KBIS 262352
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
552 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GET EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
TAKES OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

JAMESTOWN DROPPED FROM ONE DEGREE TO 6 BELOW ZERO OVER THE LAST
HOUR. THE FORECAST LOW OF 12 BELOW ZERO LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET FOR
NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED BASED ON EVENING OBS/TRENDS.
BOTTOM LINE...IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT. AT LEAST THE WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE FORECAST ISSUE TODAY WILL CENTER ON FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL THURSDAY AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH CENTRAL NIGHT. SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER MANITOBA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT WILL SET
UP A GOOD OVERRUNNING MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT ON THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE EVENING. THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ERODED
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVE
NORTH SO EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SOUTHWEST BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND NOON. THEN THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN
EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF WILLISTON SOUTHEAST THROUGH GRANT
AND SIOUX COUNTIES. THE TIMING OF THIS AREA WILL BE FROM NOON
UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE...COLDER AIR OVER THE NORTH
WILL ASSURE THE PRECIPITATION IS SNOW...WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED
BY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THIS A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED SOUTHWEST...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH FOR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.

12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/NAM/GEM GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN PUSH OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL NOT REACH NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS. THUS...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG MELTING LAYER ALOFT JUSTIFY KEEPING A WINTRY MIX
IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST UNTIL COLD AIR ADVECTION WASHES
OUT THE MELTING LAYER.

THEREAFTER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM
GLOBAL AND 06 UTC GEFS THAT QUASI-ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. VERY LIGHT MODEL
QPF AND TIMING ISSUES MAKE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION VERY SMALL WHEN
BLENDING...THOUGH THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST A COUPLE WAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW. SUBSEQUENT
MODEL CYCLES SHOULD PROVIDE MORE CLARITY ON THIS ISSUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CIGS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN DEVELOP WEST THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX OVER KDIK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
REMAIN SNOW ELSEWHERE. SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-
042-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-021.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR
NDZ040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...TM




000
FXUS63 KBIS 262352
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
552 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GET EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
TAKES OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

JAMESTOWN DROPPED FROM ONE DEGREE TO 6 BELOW ZERO OVER THE LAST
HOUR. THE FORECAST LOW OF 12 BELOW ZERO LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET FOR
NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED BASED ON EVENING OBS/TRENDS.
BOTTOM LINE...IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT. AT LEAST THE WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE FORECAST ISSUE TODAY WILL CENTER ON FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL THURSDAY AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH CENTRAL NIGHT. SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER MANITOBA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT WILL SET
UP A GOOD OVERRUNNING MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT ON THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE EVENING. THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ERODED
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVE
NORTH SO EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SOUTHWEST BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND NOON. THEN THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN
EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF WILLISTON SOUTHEAST THROUGH GRANT
AND SIOUX COUNTIES. THE TIMING OF THIS AREA WILL BE FROM NOON
UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE...COLDER AIR OVER THE NORTH
WILL ASSURE THE PRECIPITATION IS SNOW...WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED
BY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THIS A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED SOUTHWEST...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH FOR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.

12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/NAM/GEM GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN PUSH OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL NOT REACH NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS. THUS...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG MELTING LAYER ALOFT JUSTIFY KEEPING A WINTRY MIX
IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST UNTIL COLD AIR ADVECTION WASHES
OUT THE MELTING LAYER.

THEREAFTER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM
GLOBAL AND 06 UTC GEFS THAT QUASI-ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. VERY LIGHT MODEL
QPF AND TIMING ISSUES MAKE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION VERY SMALL WHEN
BLENDING...THOUGH THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST A COUPLE WAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW. SUBSEQUENT
MODEL CYCLES SHOULD PROVIDE MORE CLARITY ON THIS ISSUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CIGS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN DEVELOP WEST THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX OVER KDIK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
REMAIN SNOW ELSEWHERE. SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-
042-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-021.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR
NDZ040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...TM




000
FXUS63 KBIS 262352
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
552 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GET EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
TAKES OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

JAMESTOWN DROPPED FROM ONE DEGREE TO 6 BELOW ZERO OVER THE LAST
HOUR. THE FORECAST LOW OF 12 BELOW ZERO LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET FOR
NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED BASED ON EVENING OBS/TRENDS.
BOTTOM LINE...IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT. AT LEAST THE WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE FORECAST ISSUE TODAY WILL CENTER ON FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL THURSDAY AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH CENTRAL NIGHT. SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER MANITOBA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT WILL SET
UP A GOOD OVERRUNNING MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT ON THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE EVENING. THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ERODED
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVE
NORTH SO EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SOUTHWEST BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND NOON. THEN THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN
EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF WILLISTON SOUTHEAST THROUGH GRANT
AND SIOUX COUNTIES. THE TIMING OF THIS AREA WILL BE FROM NOON
UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE...COLDER AIR OVER THE NORTH
WILL ASSURE THE PRECIPITATION IS SNOW...WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED
BY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THIS A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED SOUTHWEST...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH FOR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.

12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/NAM/GEM GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN PUSH OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL NOT REACH NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS. THUS...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG MELTING LAYER ALOFT JUSTIFY KEEPING A WINTRY MIX
IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST UNTIL COLD AIR ADVECTION WASHES
OUT THE MELTING LAYER.

THEREAFTER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM
GLOBAL AND 06 UTC GEFS THAT QUASI-ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. VERY LIGHT MODEL
QPF AND TIMING ISSUES MAKE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION VERY SMALL WHEN
BLENDING...THOUGH THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST A COUPLE WAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW. SUBSEQUENT
MODEL CYCLES SHOULD PROVIDE MORE CLARITY ON THIS ISSUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CIGS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN DEVELOP WEST THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX OVER KDIK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
REMAIN SNOW ELSEWHERE. SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-
042-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-021.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR
NDZ040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...TM




000
FXUS63 KFGF 262128
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
328 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS WELL AS TIMING AND AMOUNT OF SNOW THANKSGIVING NIGHT. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP INTO THE VALLEY TONIGHT AND BRING A VERY
COLD AND DRY AIR MASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. A CLIPPER THEN MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA
TOMORROW NIGHT AND A BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. HAVE USED A BLEND OF NAM DNG AND HRRR FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT AND A MODEL BLEND FOR THE THANKSGIVING NIGHT SYSTEM
AS THERE ARE STILL VARIATIONS ON THE PLACEMENT OF SNOW.

TONIGHT...CURRENT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING LINE HAS MADE IT AS
FAR SOUTH OF I 94. DEW POINTS NORTH OF THIS MID CLOUD DECK ARE
ALREADY 5 TO 10 BELOW AND IN THE MID TEENS BELOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OUT OF A HIGH OVER MANITOBA WILL
BRING CALM WINDS TO THE DVL REGION EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WITH
A LIGHT COVERING OF FRESH SNOW THE TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY DROP TO 5
TO 10 BELOW THIS EVENING. BY MORNING...RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN REGION UP THROUGH
TOWNER/PEMBINA/CAVALIER COUNTIES. THIS WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO
DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 BELOW RANGE TONIGHT...AND EVENING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS COLDER TEMPS WOULD BRING AREA INTO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA (LESS THAN 25 BELOW ZERO). WARMEST
TEMPS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS THE CURRENT MID CLOUDS
WILL DELAY RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECT THAT AREA TO CLEAR OUT BY 02Z TO 03Z. DEW
POINTS ARE ABOUT 10 DEG HIGHER IN THIS REGION SO NOT LOOKING FOR
AS SIGNIFICANT OF A DROP OFF. RIDGE AXIS SHOULD THEN BE OVER THE
EAST TOMORROW MORNING AND TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 10 BELOW.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WILL LIMIT
DAYTIME HIGHS DESPITE SOME SOLAR IN THE MORNING BEFORE WE SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO BREAK 10 ABOVE. BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SET UP OVER WESTERN ND TOMORROW
MORNING AND MOVE INTO CNTRL ND IN THE AFTN. A BAND OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT INTENSIFIES AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z. NAM 280K ISENTROPIC SFC WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE ARE
DIRECTLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO LIFT THE PARCEL ABOUT 100 MB...WITH NEARLY SATURATED
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS
STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SNOW...WITH ECMWF A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN THE 18Z NAM AND 12Z GFS. HPC QPF
GUIDANCE PREFERS THE SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD SOLUTION...AND HAVE
UPDATED SNOW RATIOS TO YIELD 3 TO 4 INCHES IN NORTH OF THE DEVILS
LAKE REGION DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FRIDAY...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MORNING BUT
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN VALLEY
WILL HAVE ANOTHER TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW.  MOTORISTS IN
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA CAN EXPECT LESS THAN DESIRABLE DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR BLACK FRIDAY SHOPPING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER SFC LOW ENTERS EASTERN MT FRI AFTN AND
MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUING TO DIFFER ON
QPF AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SECOND SHOT OF SNOW. GFS IS THE
MOST BULLISH AND BRINGS SOUTHERN EDGE OF SNOW BAND DOWN TO THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR WHILE THE NAME IS FAIRLY DRY AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF INTL BORDER. DO TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY
WILL USE CONTINUITY AS SOLUTION...WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK MID DAY BETWEEN
THE TWO SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEMS SHOULD THE SNOW SET UP ALONG AND
NORTH OF HWY 200...THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE WARMER ON FRIDAY AND JUMP
INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AS NW SFC FLOW SETS UP...WHILE THE NAM REMAINS
DRY. WILL KEEP CONTINUITY FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL...ALTHOUGH ANY
SNOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS START OUT IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT...PUSHING A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME 30ISH POPS FOR WHEN THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES...THEN DRYING OUT INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

MODEL CONSENSUS STARTS TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
IS MORE ACTIVE AND BRING A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND THE CWA SHOWING
SOME STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT COMES IN. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND DRIER. ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD...SO FOR NOW KEPT ONLY MINIMAL
POPS AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS ONE OF THE WETTER SOLUTIONS. TEMPS
SHOULD SEE SOME WARMING ON TUESDAY AND COLDER AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT EVEN THE HIGHER TEMP DAYS WILL STILL BE BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AND SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG FORMATION
TOWARDS MORNING BUT DO NOT THINK AT THIS POINT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SO
DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES BUT THINK ANY RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS AND VIS WILL BE
AFTER THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 262128
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
328 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS WELL AS TIMING AND AMOUNT OF SNOW THANKSGIVING NIGHT. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP INTO THE VALLEY TONIGHT AND BRING A VERY
COLD AND DRY AIR MASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. A CLIPPER THEN MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA
TOMORROW NIGHT AND A BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. HAVE USED A BLEND OF NAM DNG AND HRRR FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT AND A MODEL BLEND FOR THE THANKSGIVING NIGHT SYSTEM
AS THERE ARE STILL VARIATIONS ON THE PLACEMENT OF SNOW.

TONIGHT...CURRENT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING LINE HAS MADE IT AS
FAR SOUTH OF I 94. DEW POINTS NORTH OF THIS MID CLOUD DECK ARE
ALREADY 5 TO 10 BELOW AND IN THE MID TEENS BELOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OUT OF A HIGH OVER MANITOBA WILL
BRING CALM WINDS TO THE DVL REGION EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WITH
A LIGHT COVERING OF FRESH SNOW THE TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY DROP TO 5
TO 10 BELOW THIS EVENING. BY MORNING...RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN REGION UP THROUGH
TOWNER/PEMBINA/CAVALIER COUNTIES. THIS WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO
DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 BELOW RANGE TONIGHT...AND EVENING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS COLDER TEMPS WOULD BRING AREA INTO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA (LESS THAN 25 BELOW ZERO). WARMEST
TEMPS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS THE CURRENT MID CLOUDS
WILL DELAY RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECT THAT AREA TO CLEAR OUT BY 02Z TO 03Z. DEW
POINTS ARE ABOUT 10 DEG HIGHER IN THIS REGION SO NOT LOOKING FOR
AS SIGNIFICANT OF A DROP OFF. RIDGE AXIS SHOULD THEN BE OVER THE
EAST TOMORROW MORNING AND TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 10 BELOW.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WILL LIMIT
DAYTIME HIGHS DESPITE SOME SOLAR IN THE MORNING BEFORE WE SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO BREAK 10 ABOVE. BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SET UP OVER WESTERN ND TOMORROW
MORNING AND MOVE INTO CNTRL ND IN THE AFTN. A BAND OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT INTENSIFIES AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z. NAM 280K ISENTROPIC SFC WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE ARE
DIRECTLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO LIFT THE PARCEL ABOUT 100 MB...WITH NEARLY SATURATED
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS
STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SNOW...WITH ECMWF A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN THE 18Z NAM AND 12Z GFS. HPC QPF
GUIDANCE PREFERS THE SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD SOLUTION...AND HAVE
UPDATED SNOW RATIOS TO YIELD 3 TO 4 INCHES IN NORTH OF THE DEVILS
LAKE REGION DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FRIDAY...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MORNING BUT
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN VALLEY
WILL HAVE ANOTHER TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW.  MOTORISTS IN
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA CAN EXPECT LESS THAN DESIRABLE DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR BLACK FRIDAY SHOPPING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER SFC LOW ENTERS EASTERN MT FRI AFTN AND
MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUING TO DIFFER ON
QPF AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SECOND SHOT OF SNOW. GFS IS THE
MOST BULLISH AND BRINGS SOUTHERN EDGE OF SNOW BAND DOWN TO THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR WHILE THE NAME IS FAIRLY DRY AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF INTL BORDER. DO TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY
WILL USE CONTINUITY AS SOLUTION...WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK MID DAY BETWEEN
THE TWO SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEMS SHOULD THE SNOW SET UP ALONG AND
NORTH OF HWY 200...THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE WARMER ON FRIDAY AND JUMP
INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AS NW SFC FLOW SETS UP...WHILE THE NAM REMAINS
DRY. WILL KEEP CONTINUITY FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL...ALTHOUGH ANY
SNOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS START OUT IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT...PUSHING A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME 30ISH POPS FOR WHEN THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES...THEN DRYING OUT INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

MODEL CONSENSUS STARTS TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
IS MORE ACTIVE AND BRING A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND THE CWA SHOWING
SOME STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT COMES IN. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND DRIER. ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD...SO FOR NOW KEPT ONLY MINIMAL
POPS AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS ONE OF THE WETTER SOLUTIONS. TEMPS
SHOULD SEE SOME WARMING ON TUESDAY AND COLDER AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT EVEN THE HIGHER TEMP DAYS WILL STILL BE BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AND SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG FORMATION
TOWARDS MORNING BUT DO NOT THINK AT THIS POINT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SO
DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES BUT THINK ANY RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS AND VIS WILL BE
AFTER THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KBIS 262124
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
324 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE FORECAST ISSUE TODAY WILL CENTER ON FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL THURSDAY AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH CENTRAL NIGHT. SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER MANITOBA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT WILL SET
UP A GOOD OVERRUNNING MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT ON THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE EVENING. THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ERODED
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVE
NORTH SO EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SOUTHWEST BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND NOON. THEN THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN
EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF WILLISTON SOUTHEAST THROUGH GRANT
AND SIOUX COUNTIES. THE TIMING OF THIS AREA WILL BE FROM NOON
UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE...COLDER AIR OVER THE NORTH
WILL ASSURE THE PRECIPITATION IS SNOW...WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED
BY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THIS A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED SOUTHWEST...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH FOR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.

12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/NAM/GEM GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN PUSH OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL NOT REACH NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS. THUS...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG MELTING LAYER ALOFT JUSTIFY KEEPING A WINTRY MIX
IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST UNTIL COLD AIR ADVECTION WASHES
OUT THE MELTING LAYER.

THEREAFTER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM
GLOBAL AND 06 UTC GEFS THAT QUASI-ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. VERY LIGHT MODEL
QPF AND TIMING ISSUES MAKE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION VERY SMALL WHEN
BLENDING...THOUGH THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST A COUPLE WAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW. SUBSEQUENT
MODEL CYCLES SHOULD PROVIDE MORE CLARITY ON THIS ISSUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY. UNTIL THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FROM
KISN-KMOT-KBIS-KJMS THROUGH 10Z. AFTER 10Z LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING WITH KDIK FIRST THEN
REACHING A KISN-KBIS LINE AFTER 12Z WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR
CONDITIONS...WITH IFR AT KDIK. THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET WILL INCREASE FROM KDIK-KBIS MAINLY AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-
042-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-021.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR
NDZ040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...WAA









000
FXUS63 KBIS 262124
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
324 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE FORECAST ISSUE TODAY WILL CENTER ON FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL THURSDAY AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH CENTRAL NIGHT. SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER MANITOBA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT WILL SET
UP A GOOD OVERRUNNING MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT ON THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE EVENING. THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ERODED
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVE
NORTH SO EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SOUTHWEST BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND NOON. THEN THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN
EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF WILLISTON SOUTHEAST THROUGH GRANT
AND SIOUX COUNTIES. THE TIMING OF THIS AREA WILL BE FROM NOON
UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE...COLDER AIR OVER THE NORTH
WILL ASSURE THE PRECIPITATION IS SNOW...WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED
BY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THIS A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED SOUTHWEST...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH FOR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.

12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/NAM/GEM GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN PUSH OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL NOT REACH NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS. THUS...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG MELTING LAYER ALOFT JUSTIFY KEEPING A WINTRY MIX
IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST UNTIL COLD AIR ADVECTION WASHES
OUT THE MELTING LAYER.

THEREAFTER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM
GLOBAL AND 06 UTC GEFS THAT QUASI-ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. VERY LIGHT MODEL
QPF AND TIMING ISSUES MAKE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION VERY SMALL WHEN
BLENDING...THOUGH THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST A COUPLE WAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW. SUBSEQUENT
MODEL CYCLES SHOULD PROVIDE MORE CLARITY ON THIS ISSUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY. UNTIL THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FROM
KISN-KMOT-KBIS-KJMS THROUGH 10Z. AFTER 10Z LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING WITH KDIK FIRST THEN
REACHING A KISN-KBIS LINE AFTER 12Z WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR
CONDITIONS...WITH IFR AT KDIK. THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET WILL INCREASE FROM KDIK-KBIS MAINLY AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-
042-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-021.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR
NDZ040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 262124
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
324 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE FORECAST ISSUE TODAY WILL CENTER ON FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL THURSDAY AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH CENTRAL NIGHT. SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER MANITOBA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT WILL SET
UP A GOOD OVERRUNNING MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT ON THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE EVENING. THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ERODED
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVE
NORTH SO EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SOUTHWEST BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND NOON. THEN THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN
EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF WILLISTON SOUTHEAST THROUGH GRANT
AND SIOUX COUNTIES. THE TIMING OF THIS AREA WILL BE FROM NOON
UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE...COLDER AIR OVER THE NORTH
WILL ASSURE THE PRECIPITATION IS SNOW...WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED
BY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THIS A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED SOUTHWEST...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH FOR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.

12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/NAM/GEM GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN PUSH OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL NOT REACH NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS. THUS...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG MELTING LAYER ALOFT JUSTIFY KEEPING A WINTRY MIX
IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST UNTIL COLD AIR ADVECTION WASHES
OUT THE MELTING LAYER.

THEREAFTER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM
GLOBAL AND 06 UTC GEFS THAT QUASI-ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. VERY LIGHT MODEL
QPF AND TIMING ISSUES MAKE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION VERY SMALL WHEN
BLENDING...THOUGH THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST A COUPLE WAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW. SUBSEQUENT
MODEL CYCLES SHOULD PROVIDE MORE CLARITY ON THIS ISSUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY. UNTIL THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FROM
KISN-KMOT-KBIS-KJMS THROUGH 10Z. AFTER 10Z LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING WITH KDIK FIRST THEN
REACHING A KISN-KBIS LINE AFTER 12Z WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR
CONDITIONS...WITH IFR AT KDIK. THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET WILL INCREASE FROM KDIK-KBIS MAINLY AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-
042-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-021.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR
NDZ040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 262124
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
324 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE FORECAST ISSUE TODAY WILL CENTER ON FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL THURSDAY AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH CENTRAL NIGHT. SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER MANITOBA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT WILL SET
UP A GOOD OVERRUNNING MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT ON THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE EVENING. THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ERODED
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVE
NORTH SO EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SOUTHWEST BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND NOON. THEN THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN
EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF WILLISTON SOUTHEAST THROUGH GRANT
AND SIOUX COUNTIES. THE TIMING OF THIS AREA WILL BE FROM NOON
UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE...COLDER AIR OVER THE NORTH
WILL ASSURE THE PRECIPITATION IS SNOW...WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED
BY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THIS A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED SOUTHWEST...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH FOR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.

12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/NAM/GEM GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN PUSH OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL NOT REACH NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS. THUS...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG MELTING LAYER ALOFT JUSTIFY KEEPING A WINTRY MIX
IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST UNTIL COLD AIR ADVECTION WASHES
OUT THE MELTING LAYER.

THEREAFTER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM
GLOBAL AND 06 UTC GEFS THAT QUASI-ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. VERY LIGHT MODEL
QPF AND TIMING ISSUES MAKE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION VERY SMALL WHEN
BLENDING...THOUGH THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST A COUPLE WAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW. SUBSEQUENT
MODEL CYCLES SHOULD PROVIDE MORE CLARITY ON THIS ISSUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY. UNTIL THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FROM
KISN-KMOT-KBIS-KJMS THROUGH 10Z. AFTER 10Z LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING WITH KDIK FIRST THEN
REACHING A KISN-KBIS LINE AFTER 12Z WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR
CONDITIONS...WITH IFR AT KDIK. THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET WILL INCREASE FROM KDIK-KBIS MAINLY AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-
042-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-021.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR
NDZ040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...WAA









000
FXUS63 KFGF 261859
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1259 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE SKY TRENDS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
AS SFC RIDGE WILL TRANSIT THE CWA TONIGHT. PORTIONS OF WEST CNTRL
MN HAVE CLEARED OUT AND MID CIGS STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS SE
ND...HOWEVER EXPECT REGION TO BE CLEAR BY ABOUT 1830 L TONIGHT
BASED ON TIMING TOOL AND CURRENT TRENDS. SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS REGION TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AREAS OF CALM WINDS OVER SOME
LIGHT FRESH SNOW IN THE FAR WEST. UPSTREAM DEW POINTS ARE AS LOW AS
THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO SO A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE COUPLED
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME SNOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF VERY
QUICKLY TONIGHT IN THE WEST...WITH RETURN FLOW BEGINNING IN THE
OVERNIGHT. FEEL THE NAM DNG TRENDS REPRESENT TEMPS WELL AND THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES COULD BE IN THE TEENS BELOW WITH RETURN
FLOW...IF PICKING UP FAST ENOUGH...HELPING APPARENT TEMPS APPROACH
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE ADJUST TEMPS AND APPARENT TEMPS
WITH THIS REASONING AND NO CHANGES BEYOND 18Z TOMORROW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE SKY AND TEMP TRENDS. CURRENT VIS
SAT SHOWING MOST OF ND COVERED WITH MID CLOUD DEC THAT IS SLOWLY
CLEARING ALONG INTL BORDER...AND ADVECTING INTO MAJORITY OF W
CNTRL MN. WILL NEED TO INCREASE SKY TODAY AS THE INHERITED GRIDS
INDICATING NORTH TO SOUTH CLEARING WILL BE SLOWER THAN PREV
THOUGHT. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT TEMPS AND HAVE LOWERED DAYTIME
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEG BUT STILL TOO EARLY IN THE MORNING TO GET A
GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS. HAVE REMOVED POPS AS CLEAR SKIES ARE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN BORDER WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS...AND WITH SE WINDS
BRINGING IN A VERY DRY AIRMASS DON`T THINK ANYTHING WILL FALL OUT
OF MID DECK. THE LAST VIS SHOT IN DID SHOW THE MID DECK DEVELOPING
A HOLE OVER RANSOM/SARGENT COUNTY SO WILL JUST NEED TO MONITOR AND
ISSUE 1 PM UPDATE EARLY IF THINGS CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN TRENDS SHOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY SE FROM SD...WITH PCPN
ENDING AND WINDS DECREASING. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
LOOK TO DIP BELOW ZERO IN COLD ADVECTION BUT CLOUD COVER REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND LOOKS TO KEEP VALUES FROM DROPPING FARTHER.
SHORT TERM MODELS IN AGREEMENT TO HOLD CLOUD COVER EARLY BEFORE
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND...COMBINED WITH
ENDING SNOWFALL...HAS ALLOWED VISIBILITIES TO RISE. THUS...HAVE
CANCELED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN SLIDES OVER
THE FCST AREA. WITH CLEARING SKIES...COOLER AIR AND FRESH
SNOW...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TO APPROACH
10 BELOW ZERO...BRINGING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO
FAR. HOWEVER...FOR THANKSGIVING...LOOKING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE SE. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE AREA...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF
SURFACE FEATURES. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 20S. FOR THIS SYSTEM...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH...BRINGING MOST OF THE NEW SNOW ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WITH 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WILL MONITOR
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND REFINE THE FORECAST AS NEEDED.

FOR SAT THROUGH TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL COOL WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MONDAY MORNING
LOWS COULD BE WELL BELOW ZERO...WITH A 1040MB HIGH OVERHEAD AND
FRESH SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BY NEXT TUE
AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE 0C. THERE COULD BE STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS LATER MONDAY INTO TUE AS TEMPS WARM...SOMETHING TO KEEP IN
MIND FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW THREAT PERHAPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AND SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG FORMATION
TOWARDS MORNING BUT DO NOT THINK AT THIS POINT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SO
DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES BUT THINK ANY RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS AND VIS WILL BE
AFTER THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261859
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1259 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE SKY TRENDS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
AS SFC RIDGE WILL TRANSIT THE CWA TONIGHT. PORTIONS OF WEST CNTRL
MN HAVE CLEARED OUT AND MID CIGS STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS SE
ND...HOWEVER EXPECT REGION TO BE CLEAR BY ABOUT 1830 L TONIGHT
BASED ON TIMING TOOL AND CURRENT TRENDS. SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS REGION TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AREAS OF CALM WINDS OVER SOME
LIGHT FRESH SNOW IN THE FAR WEST. UPSTREAM DEW POINTS ARE AS LOW AS
THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO SO A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE COUPLED
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME SNOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF VERY
QUICKLY TONIGHT IN THE WEST...WITH RETURN FLOW BEGINNING IN THE
OVERNIGHT. FEEL THE NAM DNG TRENDS REPRESENT TEMPS WELL AND THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES COULD BE IN THE TEENS BELOW WITH RETURN
FLOW...IF PICKING UP FAST ENOUGH...HELPING APPARENT TEMPS APPROACH
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE ADJUST TEMPS AND APPARENT TEMPS
WITH THIS REASONING AND NO CHANGES BEYOND 18Z TOMORROW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE SKY AND TEMP TRENDS. CURRENT VIS
SAT SHOWING MOST OF ND COVERED WITH MID CLOUD DEC THAT IS SLOWLY
CLEARING ALONG INTL BORDER...AND ADVECTING INTO MAJORITY OF W
CNTRL MN. WILL NEED TO INCREASE SKY TODAY AS THE INHERITED GRIDS
INDICATING NORTH TO SOUTH CLEARING WILL BE SLOWER THAN PREV
THOUGHT. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT TEMPS AND HAVE LOWERED DAYTIME
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEG BUT STILL TOO EARLY IN THE MORNING TO GET A
GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS. HAVE REMOVED POPS AS CLEAR SKIES ARE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN BORDER WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS...AND WITH SE WINDS
BRINGING IN A VERY DRY AIRMASS DON`T THINK ANYTHING WILL FALL OUT
OF MID DECK. THE LAST VIS SHOT IN DID SHOW THE MID DECK DEVELOPING
A HOLE OVER RANSOM/SARGENT COUNTY SO WILL JUST NEED TO MONITOR AND
ISSUE 1 PM UPDATE EARLY IF THINGS CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN TRENDS SHOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY SE FROM SD...WITH PCPN
ENDING AND WINDS DECREASING. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
LOOK TO DIP BELOW ZERO IN COLD ADVECTION BUT CLOUD COVER REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND LOOKS TO KEEP VALUES FROM DROPPING FARTHER.
SHORT TERM MODELS IN AGREEMENT TO HOLD CLOUD COVER EARLY BEFORE
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND...COMBINED WITH
ENDING SNOWFALL...HAS ALLOWED VISIBILITIES TO RISE. THUS...HAVE
CANCELED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN SLIDES OVER
THE FCST AREA. WITH CLEARING SKIES...COOLER AIR AND FRESH
SNOW...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TO APPROACH
10 BELOW ZERO...BRINGING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO
FAR. HOWEVER...FOR THANKSGIVING...LOOKING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE SE. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE AREA...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF
SURFACE FEATURES. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 20S. FOR THIS SYSTEM...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH...BRINGING MOST OF THE NEW SNOW ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WITH 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WILL MONITOR
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND REFINE THE FORECAST AS NEEDED.

FOR SAT THROUGH TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL COOL WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MONDAY MORNING
LOWS COULD BE WELL BELOW ZERO...WITH A 1040MB HIGH OVERHEAD AND
FRESH SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BY NEXT TUE
AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE 0C. THERE COULD BE STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS LATER MONDAY INTO TUE AS TEMPS WARM...SOMETHING TO KEEP IN
MIND FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW THREAT PERHAPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AND SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG FORMATION
TOWARDS MORNING BUT DO NOT THINK AT THIS POINT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SO
DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES BUT THINK ANY RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS AND VIS WILL BE
AFTER THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KBIS 261822
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1222 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WILL TRENDS THE POPS DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS THE WEAK
IMPULSE EXITS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE NORTH CENTRAL AND
EAST. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS AS IS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 825 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BAND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAS A BIT MORE
SUBSTANCE TO IT. WILL UPDATE TO LIKELY POPS WITH UP TO AN INCH
ACCUM FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
AFFILIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH WORKS ITS WAY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. MOST SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY MID-DAY.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE AREA OF SNOW MOVING OUT OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THE LINGERING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LIGHT SNOW TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST.

CURRENTLY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY`S SNOW
WAS OVER THE BORDER OF SD/NE/IA. THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD/EXITING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN NORTH DAKOTA - NEAR OAKES. NORTH WINDS OF
AROUND 20 MPH WERE OBSERVED AT 3 AM CST...AND THE THREAT OF BLOWING
OR DRIFTING SNOW WAS WANING. THEREFORE WILL END THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES AROUND JAMESTOWN AND SOUTH BY 4 AM CST.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES...AND EXPECT THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...AND TEMPERATURES THERE WERE AROUND 20-25
BELOW ZERO WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT THE
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA BORDER BY DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING MORNING. CLEARING
SKIES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.

WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
AND BE MORE INFLUENCED BY THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE EXTENDS TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH
DAKOTA...AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE
TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND LOWER 20S FAR SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CLOUDS. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ABOVE ZERO IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...EVEN REMAINING
IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE
GREATEST ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY LIFTING NORTHERLY
TOWARDS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE GREATEST SNOW CHANCES MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AROUND 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL FORM
ALONG WITH THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH
THE AREA. LATEST SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT ANY FREEZING RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/WEST OF HIGHWAYS 2 AND 52 IN AREAS OF LESS
LIFT...THOUGH STILL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...THOUGH COULD BE ENOUGH TO
POSSIBLY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FROM THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WHILE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH A VARIETY OF
WEAK IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH. WARMER AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA
BRINGING A SHARP TEMPERATURE CONTRAST BETWEEN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE STATE. LOW PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY...SPREADING SOUTH IN THE EVENING AS
LOW SHIFTS THROUGH. STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT REMAINS.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING SOME FRIGID CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE  REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN.
SOME SNOW MAY DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT PASSING...WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REBOUND AGAIN EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
A LOW STARTS DEVELOPING TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BRINGING WARM
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY. UNTIL THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FROM
KISN-KMOT-KBIS-KJMS THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING WITH KDIK FIRST THEN
REACHING A KISN-KBIS LINE AFTER 12Z WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR
CONDITIONS....WITH IFR AT KDIK THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET WILL INCREASE FROM KDIK-KBIS-KJMS MAINLY AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261557
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
957 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE SKY AND TEMP TRENDS. CURRENT VIS
SAT SHOWING MOST OF ND COVERED WITH MID CLOUD DEC THAT IS SLOWLY
CLEARING ALONG INTL BORDER...AND ADVECTING INTO MAJORITY OF W
CNTRL MN. WILL NEED TO INCREASE SKY TODAY AS THE INHERITED GRIDS
INDICATING NORTH TO SOUTH CLEARING WILL BE SLOWER THAN PREV
THOUGHT. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT TEMPS AND HAVE LOWERED DAYTIME
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEG BUT STILL TOO EARLY IN THE MORNING TO GET A
GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS. HAVE REMOVED POPS AS CLEAR SKIES ARE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN BORDER WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS...AND WITH SE WINDS
BRINGING IN A VERY DRY AIRMASS DON`T THINK ANYTHING WILL FALL OUT
OF MID DECK. THE LAST VIS SHOT IN DID SHOW THE MID DECK DEVELOPING
A HOLE OVER RANSOM/SARGENT COUNTY SO WILL JUST NEED TO MONITOR AND
ISSUE 1 PM UPDATE EARLY IF THINGS CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN TRENDS SHOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY SE FROM SD...WITH PCPN
ENDING AND WINDS DECREASING. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
LOOK TO DIP BELOW ZERO IN COLD ADVECTION BUT CLOUD COVER REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND LOOKS TO KEEP VALUES FROM DROPPING FARTHER.
SHORT TERM MODELS IN AGREEMENT TO HOLD CLOUD COVER EARLY BEFORE
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND...COMBINED WITH
ENDING SNOWFALL...HAS ALLOWED VISIBILITIES TO RISE. THUS...HAVE
CANCELED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN SLIDES OVER
THE FCST AREA. WITH CLEARING SKIES...COOLER AIR AND FRESH
SNOW...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TO APPROACH
10 BELOW ZERO...BRINGING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO
FAR. HOWEVER...FOR THANKSGIVING...LOOKING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE SE. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE AREA...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF
SURFACE FEATURES. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 20S. FOR THIS SYSTEM...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH...BRINGING MOST OF THE NEW SNOW ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WITH 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WILL MONITOR
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND REFINE THE FORECAST AS NEEDED.

FOR SAT THROUGH TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL COOL WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MONDAY MORNING
LOWS COULD BE WELL BELOW ZERO...WITH A 1040MB HIGH OVERHEAD AND
FRESH SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BY NEXT TUE
AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE 0C. THERE COULD BE STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS LATER MONDAY INTO TUE AS TEMPS WARM...SOMETHING TO KEEP IN
MIND FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW THREAT PERHAPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. BJI
AND FAR REMAIN MVFR TO IFR FOR NOW...BUT SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE SLIDING SE OUT OF CANADA WILL HELP RAISE CIGS TO VFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 15-18Z. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY FROM 10-15 MPH
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPKINS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 261557
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
957 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE SKY AND TEMP TRENDS. CURRENT VIS
SAT SHOWING MOST OF ND COVERED WITH MID CLOUD DEC THAT IS SLOWLY
CLEARING ALONG INTL BORDER...AND ADVECTING INTO MAJORITY OF W
CNTRL MN. WILL NEED TO INCREASE SKY TODAY AS THE INHERITED GRIDS
INDICATING NORTH TO SOUTH CLEARING WILL BE SLOWER THAN PREV
THOUGHT. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT TEMPS AND HAVE LOWERED DAYTIME
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEG BUT STILL TOO EARLY IN THE MORNING TO GET A
GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS. HAVE REMOVED POPS AS CLEAR SKIES ARE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN BORDER WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS...AND WITH SE WINDS
BRINGING IN A VERY DRY AIRMASS DON`T THINK ANYTHING WILL FALL OUT
OF MID DECK. THE LAST VIS SHOT IN DID SHOW THE MID DECK DEVELOPING
A HOLE OVER RANSOM/SARGENT COUNTY SO WILL JUST NEED TO MONITOR AND
ISSUE 1 PM UPDATE EARLY IF THINGS CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN TRENDS SHOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY SE FROM SD...WITH PCPN
ENDING AND WINDS DECREASING. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
LOOK TO DIP BELOW ZERO IN COLD ADVECTION BUT CLOUD COVER REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND LOOKS TO KEEP VALUES FROM DROPPING FARTHER.
SHORT TERM MODELS IN AGREEMENT TO HOLD CLOUD COVER EARLY BEFORE
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND...COMBINED WITH
ENDING SNOWFALL...HAS ALLOWED VISIBILITIES TO RISE. THUS...HAVE
CANCELED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN SLIDES OVER
THE FCST AREA. WITH CLEARING SKIES...COOLER AIR AND FRESH
SNOW...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TO APPROACH
10 BELOW ZERO...BRINGING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO
FAR. HOWEVER...FOR THANKSGIVING...LOOKING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE SE. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE AREA...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF
SURFACE FEATURES. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 20S. FOR THIS SYSTEM...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH...BRINGING MOST OF THE NEW SNOW ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WITH 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WILL MONITOR
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND REFINE THE FORECAST AS NEEDED.

FOR SAT THROUGH TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL COOL WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MONDAY MORNING
LOWS COULD BE WELL BELOW ZERO...WITH A 1040MB HIGH OVERHEAD AND
FRESH SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BY NEXT TUE
AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE 0C. THERE COULD BE STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS LATER MONDAY INTO TUE AS TEMPS WARM...SOMETHING TO KEEP IN
MIND FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW THREAT PERHAPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. BJI
AND FAR REMAIN MVFR TO IFR FOR NOW...BUT SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE SLIDING SE OUT OF CANADA WILL HELP RAISE CIGS TO VFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 15-18Z. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY FROM 10-15 MPH
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPKINS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 261432
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
832 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BAND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAS A BIT MORE
SUBSTANCE TO IT. WILL UPDATE TO LIKELY POPS WITH UP TO AN INCH
ACCUM FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
AFFILIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH WORKS ITS WAY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. MOST SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY MID-DAY.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE AREA OF SNOW MOVING OUT OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THE LINGERING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LIGHT SNOW TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST.

CURRENTLY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY`S SNOW
WAS OVER THE BORDER OF SD/NE/IA. THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD/EXITING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN NORTH DAKOTA - NEAR OAKES. NORTH WINDS OF
AROUND 20 MPH WERE OBSERVED AT 3 AM CST...AND THE THREAT OF BLOWING
OR DRIFTING SNOW WAS WANING. THEREFORE WILL END THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES AROUND JAMESTOWN AND SOUTH BY 4 AM CST.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES...AND EXPECT THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...AND TEMPERATURES THERE WERE AROUND 20-25
BELOW ZERO WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT THE
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA BORDER BY DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING MORNING. CLEARING
SKIES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.

WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
AND BE MORE INFLUENCED BY THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE EXTENDS TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH
DAKOTA...AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE
TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND LOWER 20S FAR SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CLOUDS. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ABOVE ZERO IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...EVEN REMAINING
IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE
GREATEST ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY LIFTING NORTHERLY
TOWARDS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE GREATEST SNOW CHANCES MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AROUND 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL FORM
ALONG WITH THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH
THE AREA. LATEST SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT ANY FREEZING RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/WEST OF HIGHWAYS 2 AND 52 IN AREAS OF LESS
LIFT...THOUGH STILL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...THOUGH COULD BE ENOUGH TO
POSSIBLY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FROM THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WHILE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH A VARIETY OF
WEAK IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH. WARMER AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA
BRINGING A SHARP TEMPERATURE CONTRAST BETWEEN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE STATE. LOW PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY...SPREADING SOUTH IN THE EVENING AS
LOW SHIFTS THROUGH. STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT REMAINS.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING SOME FRIGID CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE  REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN.
SOME SNOW MAY DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT PASSING...WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REBOUND AGAIN EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
A LOW STARTS DEVELOPING TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BRINGING WARM
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 825 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CONDITIONS GENERALLY VFR KISN-KMOT-KJMS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SOUTH. MVFR TO IFR IN CLOUDS AND SNOW FROM KDIK- KBIS AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES SOUTH...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR AT KBIS IN
THE AFTERNOON. KDIK LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR OR LOW VFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN WEAK UP SLOPE FLOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 261432
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
832 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BAND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAS A BIT MORE
SUBSTANCE TO IT. WILL UPDATE TO LIKELY POPS WITH UP TO AN INCH
ACCUM FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
AFFILIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH WORKS ITS WAY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. MOST SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY MID-DAY.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE AREA OF SNOW MOVING OUT OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THE LINGERING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LIGHT SNOW TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST.

CURRENTLY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY`S SNOW
WAS OVER THE BORDER OF SD/NE/IA. THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD/EXITING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN NORTH DAKOTA - NEAR OAKES. NORTH WINDS OF
AROUND 20 MPH WERE OBSERVED AT 3 AM CST...AND THE THREAT OF BLOWING
OR DRIFTING SNOW WAS WANING. THEREFORE WILL END THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES AROUND JAMESTOWN AND SOUTH BY 4 AM CST.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES...AND EXPECT THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...AND TEMPERATURES THERE WERE AROUND 20-25
BELOW ZERO WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT THE
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA BORDER BY DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING MORNING. CLEARING
SKIES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.

WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
AND BE MORE INFLUENCED BY THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE EXTENDS TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH
DAKOTA...AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE
TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND LOWER 20S FAR SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CLOUDS. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ABOVE ZERO IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...EVEN REMAINING
IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE
GREATEST ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY LIFTING NORTHERLY
TOWARDS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE GREATEST SNOW CHANCES MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AROUND 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL FORM
ALONG WITH THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH
THE AREA. LATEST SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT ANY FREEZING RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/WEST OF HIGHWAYS 2 AND 52 IN AREAS OF LESS
LIFT...THOUGH STILL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...THOUGH COULD BE ENOUGH TO
POSSIBLY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FROM THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WHILE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH A VARIETY OF
WEAK IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH. WARMER AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA
BRINGING A SHARP TEMPERATURE CONTRAST BETWEEN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE STATE. LOW PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY...SPREADING SOUTH IN THE EVENING AS
LOW SHIFTS THROUGH. STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT REMAINS.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING SOME FRIGID CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE  REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN.
SOME SNOW MAY DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT PASSING...WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REBOUND AGAIN EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
A LOW STARTS DEVELOPING TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BRINGING WARM
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 825 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CONDITIONS GENERALLY VFR KISN-KMOT-KJMS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SOUTH. MVFR TO IFR IN CLOUDS AND SNOW FROM KDIK- KBIS AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES SOUTH...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR AT KBIS IN
THE AFTERNOON. KDIK LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR OR LOW VFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN WEAK UP SLOPE FLOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 261234
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
AFFILIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH WORKS ITS WAY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. MOST SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY MID-DAY.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE AREA OF SNOW MOVING OUT OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THE LINGERING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LIGHT SNOW TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST.

CURRENTLY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY`S SNOW
WAS OVER THE BORDER OF SD/NE/IA. THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD/EXITING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN NORTH DAKOTA - NEAR OAKES. NORTH WINDS OF
AROUND 20 MPH WERE OBSERVED AT 3 AM CST...AND THE THREAT OF BLOWING
OR DRIFTING SNOW WAS WANING. THEREFORE WILL END THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES AROUND JAMESTOWN AND SOUTH BY 4 AM CST.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES...AND EXPECT THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...AND TEMPERATURES THERE WERE AROUND 20-25
BELOW ZERO WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT THE
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA BORDER BY DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING MORNING. CLEARING
SKIES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.

WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
AND BE MORE INFLUENCED BY THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE EXTENDS TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH
DAKOTA...AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE
TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND LOWER 20S FAR SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CLOUDS. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ABOVE ZERO IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...EVEN REMAINING
IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE
GREATEST ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY LIFTING NORTHERLY
TOWARDS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE GREATEST SNOW CHANCES MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AROUND 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL FORM
ALONG WITH THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH
THE AREA. LATEST SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT ANY FREEZING RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/WEST OF HIGHWAYS 2 AND 52 IN AREAS OF LESS
LIFT...THOUGH STILL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...THOUGH COULD BE ENOUGH TO
POSSIBLY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FROM THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WHILE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH A VARIETY OF
WEAK IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH. WARMER AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA
BRINGING A SHARP TEMPERATURE CONTRAST BETWEEN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE STATE. LOW PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY...SPREADING SOUTH IN THE EVENING AS
LOW SHIFTS THROUGH. STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT REMAINS.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING SOME FRIGID CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE  REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN.
SOME SNOW MAY DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT PASSING...WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REBOUND AGAIN EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
A LOW STARTS DEVELOPING TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BRINGING WARM
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER KDIK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
OCNL -SN. VSBYS MAY BE MVFR THROUGH 16Z IN -SN AND BR. MVFR AT KISN
AND KBIS UNTIL 19Z-21Z WHEN VFR EXPECTED. MVFR RETURNS AT KISN LATE
TONIGHT. KMOT/KBIS/KJMS WILL SEE MVFR CIGS WITH OCNL VSBYS MVFR IN
-SN BR THIS MORNING...BECOMING VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 261234
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
AFFILIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH WORKS ITS WAY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. MOST SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY MID-DAY.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE AREA OF SNOW MOVING OUT OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THE LINGERING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LIGHT SNOW TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST.

CURRENTLY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY`S SNOW
WAS OVER THE BORDER OF SD/NE/IA. THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD/EXITING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN NORTH DAKOTA - NEAR OAKES. NORTH WINDS OF
AROUND 20 MPH WERE OBSERVED AT 3 AM CST...AND THE THREAT OF BLOWING
OR DRIFTING SNOW WAS WANING. THEREFORE WILL END THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES AROUND JAMESTOWN AND SOUTH BY 4 AM CST.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES...AND EXPECT THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...AND TEMPERATURES THERE WERE AROUND 20-25
BELOW ZERO WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT THE
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA BORDER BY DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING MORNING. CLEARING
SKIES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.

WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
AND BE MORE INFLUENCED BY THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE EXTENDS TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH
DAKOTA...AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE
TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND LOWER 20S FAR SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CLOUDS. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ABOVE ZERO IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...EVEN REMAINING
IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE
GREATEST ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY LIFTING NORTHERLY
TOWARDS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE GREATEST SNOW CHANCES MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AROUND 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL FORM
ALONG WITH THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH
THE AREA. LATEST SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT ANY FREEZING RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/WEST OF HIGHWAYS 2 AND 52 IN AREAS OF LESS
LIFT...THOUGH STILL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...THOUGH COULD BE ENOUGH TO
POSSIBLY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FROM THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WHILE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH A VARIETY OF
WEAK IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH. WARMER AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA
BRINGING A SHARP TEMPERATURE CONTRAST BETWEEN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE STATE. LOW PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY...SPREADING SOUTH IN THE EVENING AS
LOW SHIFTS THROUGH. STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT REMAINS.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING SOME FRIGID CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE  REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN.
SOME SNOW MAY DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT PASSING...WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REBOUND AGAIN EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
A LOW STARTS DEVELOPING TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BRINGING WARM
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER KDIK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
OCNL -SN. VSBYS MAY BE MVFR THROUGH 16Z IN -SN AND BR. MVFR AT KISN
AND KBIS UNTIL 19Z-21Z WHEN VFR EXPECTED. MVFR RETURNS AT KISN LATE
TONIGHT. KMOT/KBIS/KJMS WILL SEE MVFR CIGS WITH OCNL VSBYS MVFR IN
-SN BR THIS MORNING...BECOMING VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 261234
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
AFFILIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH WORKS ITS WAY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. MOST SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY MID-DAY.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE AREA OF SNOW MOVING OUT OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THE LINGERING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LIGHT SNOW TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST.

CURRENTLY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY`S SNOW
WAS OVER THE BORDER OF SD/NE/IA. THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD/EXITING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN NORTH DAKOTA - NEAR OAKES. NORTH WINDS OF
AROUND 20 MPH WERE OBSERVED AT 3 AM CST...AND THE THREAT OF BLOWING
OR DRIFTING SNOW WAS WANING. THEREFORE WILL END THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES AROUND JAMESTOWN AND SOUTH BY 4 AM CST.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES...AND EXPECT THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...AND TEMPERATURES THERE WERE AROUND 20-25
BELOW ZERO WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT THE
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA BORDER BY DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING MORNING. CLEARING
SKIES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.

WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
AND BE MORE INFLUENCED BY THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE EXTENDS TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH
DAKOTA...AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE
TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND LOWER 20S FAR SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CLOUDS. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ABOVE ZERO IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...EVEN REMAINING
IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE
GREATEST ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY LIFTING NORTHERLY
TOWARDS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE GREATEST SNOW CHANCES MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AROUND 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL FORM
ALONG WITH THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH
THE AREA. LATEST SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT ANY FREEZING RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/WEST OF HIGHWAYS 2 AND 52 IN AREAS OF LESS
LIFT...THOUGH STILL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...THOUGH COULD BE ENOUGH TO
POSSIBLY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FROM THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WHILE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH A VARIETY OF
WEAK IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH. WARMER AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA
BRINGING A SHARP TEMPERATURE CONTRAST BETWEEN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE STATE. LOW PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY...SPREADING SOUTH IN THE EVENING AS
LOW SHIFTS THROUGH. STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT REMAINS.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING SOME FRIGID CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE  REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN.
SOME SNOW MAY DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT PASSING...WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REBOUND AGAIN EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
A LOW STARTS DEVELOPING TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BRINGING WARM
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER KDIK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
OCNL -SN. VSBYS MAY BE MVFR THROUGH 16Z IN -SN AND BR. MVFR AT KISN
AND KBIS UNTIL 19Z-21Z WHEN VFR EXPECTED. MVFR RETURNS AT KISN LATE
TONIGHT. KMOT/KBIS/KJMS WILL SEE MVFR CIGS WITH OCNL VSBYS MVFR IN
-SN BR THIS MORNING...BECOMING VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 261234
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
AFFILIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH WORKS ITS WAY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. MOST SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY MID-DAY.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE AREA OF SNOW MOVING OUT OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THE LINGERING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LIGHT SNOW TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST.

CURRENTLY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY`S SNOW
WAS OVER THE BORDER OF SD/NE/IA. THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD/EXITING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN NORTH DAKOTA - NEAR OAKES. NORTH WINDS OF
AROUND 20 MPH WERE OBSERVED AT 3 AM CST...AND THE THREAT OF BLOWING
OR DRIFTING SNOW WAS WANING. THEREFORE WILL END THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES AROUND JAMESTOWN AND SOUTH BY 4 AM CST.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES...AND EXPECT THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...AND TEMPERATURES THERE WERE AROUND 20-25
BELOW ZERO WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT THE
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA BORDER BY DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING MORNING. CLEARING
SKIES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.

WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
AND BE MORE INFLUENCED BY THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE EXTENDS TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH
DAKOTA...AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE
TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND LOWER 20S FAR SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CLOUDS. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ABOVE ZERO IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...EVEN REMAINING
IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE
GREATEST ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY LIFTING NORTHERLY
TOWARDS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE GREATEST SNOW CHANCES MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AROUND 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL FORM
ALONG WITH THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH
THE AREA. LATEST SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT ANY FREEZING RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/WEST OF HIGHWAYS 2 AND 52 IN AREAS OF LESS
LIFT...THOUGH STILL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...THOUGH COULD BE ENOUGH TO
POSSIBLY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FROM THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WHILE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH A VARIETY OF
WEAK IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH. WARMER AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA
BRINGING A SHARP TEMPERATURE CONTRAST BETWEEN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE STATE. LOW PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY...SPREADING SOUTH IN THE EVENING AS
LOW SHIFTS THROUGH. STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT REMAINS.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING SOME FRIGID CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE  REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN.
SOME SNOW MAY DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT PASSING...WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REBOUND AGAIN EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
A LOW STARTS DEVELOPING TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BRINGING WARM
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER KDIK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
OCNL -SN. VSBYS MAY BE MVFR THROUGH 16Z IN -SN AND BR. MVFR AT KISN
AND KBIS UNTIL 19Z-21Z WHEN VFR EXPECTED. MVFR RETURNS AT KISN LATE
TONIGHT. KMOT/KBIS/KJMS WILL SEE MVFR CIGS WITH OCNL VSBYS MVFR IN
-SN BR THIS MORNING...BECOMING VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261232
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
632 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST ON TARGET SO NO UPDATE NEEDED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY SE FROM SD...WITH PCPN
ENDING AND WINDS DECREASING. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
LOOK TO DIP BELOW ZERO IN COLD ADVECTION BUT CLOUD COVER REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND LOOKS TO KEEP VALUES FROM DROPPING FARTHER.
SHORT TERM MODELS IN AGREEMENT TO HOLD CLOUD COVER EARLY BEFORE
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND...COMBINED WITH
ENDING SNOWFALL...HAS ALLOWED VISIBILITIES TO RISE. THUS...HAVE
CANCELED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN SLIDES OVER
THE FCST AREA. WITH CLEARING SKIES...COOLER AIR AND FRESH
SNOW...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TO APPROACH
10 BELOW ZERO...BRINGING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO
FAR. HOWEVER...FOR THANKSGIVING...LOOKING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE SE. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE AREA...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF
SURFACE FEATURES. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 20S. FOR THIS SYSTEM...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH...BRINGING MOST OF THE NEW SNOW ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WITH 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WILL MONITOR
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND REFINE THE FORECAST AS NEEDED.

FOR SAT THROUGH TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL COOL WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MONDAY MORNING
LOWS COULD BE WELL BELOW ZERO...WITH A 1040MB HIGH OVERHEAD AND
FRESH SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BY NEXT TUE
AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE 0C. THERE COULD BE STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS LATER MONDAY INTO TUE AS TEMPS WARM...SOMETHING TO KEEP IN
MIND FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW THREAT PERHAPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. BJI
AND FAR REMAIN MVFR TO IFR FOR NOW...BUT SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE SLIDING SE OUT OF CANADA WILL HELP RAISE CIGS TO VFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 15-18Z. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY FROM 10-15 MPH
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPKINS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 261232
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
632 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST ON TARGET SO NO UPDATE NEEDED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY SE FROM SD...WITH PCPN
ENDING AND WINDS DECREASING. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
LOOK TO DIP BELOW ZERO IN COLD ADVECTION BUT CLOUD COVER REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND LOOKS TO KEEP VALUES FROM DROPPING FARTHER.
SHORT TERM MODELS IN AGREEMENT TO HOLD CLOUD COVER EARLY BEFORE
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND...COMBINED WITH
ENDING SNOWFALL...HAS ALLOWED VISIBILITIES TO RISE. THUS...HAVE
CANCELED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN SLIDES OVER
THE FCST AREA. WITH CLEARING SKIES...COOLER AIR AND FRESH
SNOW...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TO APPROACH
10 BELOW ZERO...BRINGING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO
FAR. HOWEVER...FOR THANKSGIVING...LOOKING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE SE. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE AREA...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF
SURFACE FEATURES. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 20S. FOR THIS SYSTEM...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH...BRINGING MOST OF THE NEW SNOW ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WITH 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WILL MONITOR
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND REFINE THE FORECAST AS NEEDED.

FOR SAT THROUGH TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL COOL WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MONDAY MORNING
LOWS COULD BE WELL BELOW ZERO...WITH A 1040MB HIGH OVERHEAD AND
FRESH SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BY NEXT TUE
AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE 0C. THERE COULD BE STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS LATER MONDAY INTO TUE AS TEMPS WARM...SOMETHING TO KEEP IN
MIND FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW THREAT PERHAPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. BJI
AND FAR REMAIN MVFR TO IFR FOR NOW...BUT SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE SLIDING SE OUT OF CANADA WILL HELP RAISE CIGS TO VFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 15-18Z. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY FROM 10-15 MPH
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPKINS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 261232
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
632 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST ON TARGET SO NO UPDATE NEEDED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY SE FROM SD...WITH PCPN
ENDING AND WINDS DECREASING. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
LOOK TO DIP BELOW ZERO IN COLD ADVECTION BUT CLOUD COVER REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND LOOKS TO KEEP VALUES FROM DROPPING FARTHER.
SHORT TERM MODELS IN AGREEMENT TO HOLD CLOUD COVER EARLY BEFORE
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND...COMBINED WITH
ENDING SNOWFALL...HAS ALLOWED VISIBILITIES TO RISE. THUS...HAVE
CANCELED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN SLIDES OVER
THE FCST AREA. WITH CLEARING SKIES...COOLER AIR AND FRESH
SNOW...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TO APPROACH
10 BELOW ZERO...BRINGING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO
FAR. HOWEVER...FOR THANKSGIVING...LOOKING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE SE. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE AREA...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF
SURFACE FEATURES. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 20S. FOR THIS SYSTEM...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH...BRINGING MOST OF THE NEW SNOW ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WITH 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WILL MONITOR
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND REFINE THE FORECAST AS NEEDED.

FOR SAT THROUGH TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL COOL WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MONDAY MORNING
LOWS COULD BE WELL BELOW ZERO...WITH A 1040MB HIGH OVERHEAD AND
FRESH SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BY NEXT TUE
AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE 0C. THERE COULD BE STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS LATER MONDAY INTO TUE AS TEMPS WARM...SOMETHING TO KEEP IN
MIND FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW THREAT PERHAPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. BJI
AND FAR REMAIN MVFR TO IFR FOR NOW...BUT SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE SLIDING SE OUT OF CANADA WILL HELP RAISE CIGS TO VFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 15-18Z. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY FROM 10-15 MPH
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPKINS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 261232
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
632 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST ON TARGET SO NO UPDATE NEEDED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY SE FROM SD...WITH PCPN
ENDING AND WINDS DECREASING. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
LOOK TO DIP BELOW ZERO IN COLD ADVECTION BUT CLOUD COVER REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND LOOKS TO KEEP VALUES FROM DROPPING FARTHER.
SHORT TERM MODELS IN AGREEMENT TO HOLD CLOUD COVER EARLY BEFORE
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND...COMBINED WITH
ENDING SNOWFALL...HAS ALLOWED VISIBILITIES TO RISE. THUS...HAVE
CANCELED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN SLIDES OVER
THE FCST AREA. WITH CLEARING SKIES...COOLER AIR AND FRESH
SNOW...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TO APPROACH
10 BELOW ZERO...BRINGING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO
FAR. HOWEVER...FOR THANKSGIVING...LOOKING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE SE. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE AREA...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF
SURFACE FEATURES. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 20S. FOR THIS SYSTEM...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH...BRINGING MOST OF THE NEW SNOW ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WITH 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WILL MONITOR
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND REFINE THE FORECAST AS NEEDED.

FOR SAT THROUGH TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL COOL WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MONDAY MORNING
LOWS COULD BE WELL BELOW ZERO...WITH A 1040MB HIGH OVERHEAD AND
FRESH SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BY NEXT TUE
AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE 0C. THERE COULD BE STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS LATER MONDAY INTO TUE AS TEMPS WARM...SOMETHING TO KEEP IN
MIND FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW THREAT PERHAPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. BJI
AND FAR REMAIN MVFR TO IFR FOR NOW...BUT SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE SLIDING SE OUT OF CANADA WILL HELP RAISE CIGS TO VFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 15-18Z. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY FROM 10-15 MPH
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPKINS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 261000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY SE FROM SD...WITH PCPN
ENDING AND WINDS DECREASING. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
LOOK TO DIP BELOW ZERO IN COLD ADVECTION BUT CLOUD COVER REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND LOOKS TO KEEP VALUES FROM DROPPING FARTHER.
SHORT TERM MODELS IN AGREEMENT TO HOLD CLOUD COVER EARLY BEFORE
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND...COMBINED WITH
ENDING SNOWFALL...HAS ALLOWED VISIBILITIES TO RISE. THUS...HAVE
CANCELED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN SLIDES OVER
THE FCST AREA. WITH CLEARING SKIES...COOLER AIR AND FRESH
SNOW...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TO APPROACH
10 BELOW ZERO...BRINGING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO
FAR. HOWEVER...FOR THANKSGIVING...LOOKING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE SE. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE AREA...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF
SURFACE FEATURES. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 20S. FOR THIS SYSTEM...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH...BRINGING MOST OF THE NEW SNOW ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WITH 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WILL MONITOR
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND REFINE THE FORECAST AS NEEDED.

FOR SAT THROUGH TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL COOL WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MONDAY MORNING
LOWS COULD BE WELL BELOW ZERO...WITH A 1040MB HIGH OVERHEAD AND
FRESH SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BY NEXT TUE
AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE 0C. THERE COULD BE STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS LATER MONDAY INTO TUE AS TEMPS WARM...SOMETHING TO KEEP IN
MIND FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW THREAT PERHAPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

IFR CONDITIONS ARE SHIFTING INTO SOUTHEAST ND. MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE AREA IS IN MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME VFR CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES. CLEARING GOING ON OVER SOUTHERN MAN AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTH
REST OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING LINE SHOULD REACH ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES BY SUNRISE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPPES







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY SE FROM SD...WITH PCPN
ENDING AND WINDS DECREASING. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
LOOK TO DIP BELOW ZERO IN COLD ADVECTION BUT CLOUD COVER REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND LOOKS TO KEEP VALUES FROM DROPPING FARTHER.
SHORT TERM MODELS IN AGREEMENT TO HOLD CLOUD COVER EARLY BEFORE
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND...COMBINED WITH
ENDING SNOWFALL...HAS ALLOWED VISIBILITIES TO RISE. THUS...HAVE
CANCELED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN SLIDES OVER
THE FCST AREA. WITH CLEARING SKIES...COOLER AIR AND FRESH
SNOW...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TO APPROACH
10 BELOW ZERO...BRINGING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO
FAR. HOWEVER...FOR THANKSGIVING...LOOKING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE SE. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE AREA...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF
SURFACE FEATURES. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 20S. FOR THIS SYSTEM...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH...BRINGING MOST OF THE NEW SNOW ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WITH 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WILL MONITOR
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND REFINE THE FORECAST AS NEEDED.

FOR SAT THROUGH TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL COOL WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MONDAY MORNING
LOWS COULD BE WELL BELOW ZERO...WITH A 1040MB HIGH OVERHEAD AND
FRESH SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BY NEXT TUE
AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE 0C. THERE COULD BE STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS LATER MONDAY INTO TUE AS TEMPS WARM...SOMETHING TO KEEP IN
MIND FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW THREAT PERHAPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

IFR CONDITIONS ARE SHIFTING INTO SOUTHEAST ND. MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE AREA IS IN MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME VFR CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES. CLEARING GOING ON OVER SOUTHERN MAN AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTH
REST OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING LINE SHOULD REACH ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES BY SUNRISE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KBIS 260941
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE AREA OF SNOW MOVING OUT OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THE LINGERING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LIGHT SNOW TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST.

CURRENTLY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY`S SNOW
WAS OVER THE BORDER OF SD/NE/IA. THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD/EXITING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN NORTH DAKOTA - NEAR OAKES. NORTH WINDS OF
AROUND 20 MPH WERE OBSERVED AT 3 AM CST...AND THE THREAT OF BLOWING
OR DRIFTING SNOW WAS WANING. THEREFORE WILL END THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES AROUND JAMESTOWN AND SOUTH BY 4 AM CST.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES...AND EXPECT THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...AND TEMPERATURES THERE WERE AROUND 20-25
BELOW ZERO WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT THE
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA BORDER BY DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING MORNING. CLEARING
SKIES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.

WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
AND BE MORE INFLUENCED BY THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE EXTENDS TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH
DAKOTA...AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE
TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND LOWER 20S FAR SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CLOUDS. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ABOVE ZERO IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...EVEN REMAINING
IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE
GREATEST ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY LIFTING NORTHERLY
TOWARDS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE GREATEST SNOW CHANCES MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AROUND 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL FORM
ALONG WITH THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH
THE AREA. LATEST SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT ANY FREEZING RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/WEST OF HIGHWAYS 2 AND 52 IN AREAS OF LESS
LIFT...THOUGH STILL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...THOUGH COULD BE ENOUGH TO
POSSIBLY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FROM THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WHILE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH A VARIETY OF
WEAK IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH. WARMER AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA
BRINGING A SHARP TEMPERATURE CONTRAST BETWEEN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE STATE. LOW PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY...SPREADING SOUTH IN THE EVENING AS
LOW SHIFTS THROUGH. STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT REMAINS.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING SOME FRIGID CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE  REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN.
SOME SNOW MAY DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT PASSING...WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REBOUND AGAIN EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
A LOW STARTS DEVELOPING TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BRINGING WARM
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER TAF SITES AT 06Z. SOME HINT AT
SCATTERING OUT OVER KMOT DURING THE EARLY MORNING...BUT SAW
OBSERVATIONS IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH MVFR CIG DESPITE SAT PICS
INDICATING SOME CLEARING...AND KEPT KMOT IN MVFR. IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE WILL INDUCES SOME -SN FLURRIES. GRADUALLY BECOMING
VFR AT KMOT AND KJMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT KDIK SHOULD REMAIN
MVFR AND OCNL IFR WITH LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN AFT 00Z
TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 260941
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE AREA OF SNOW MOVING OUT OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THE LINGERING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LIGHT SNOW TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST.

CURRENTLY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY`S SNOW
WAS OVER THE BORDER OF SD/NE/IA. THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD/EXITING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN NORTH DAKOTA - NEAR OAKES. NORTH WINDS OF
AROUND 20 MPH WERE OBSERVED AT 3 AM CST...AND THE THREAT OF BLOWING
OR DRIFTING SNOW WAS WANING. THEREFORE WILL END THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES AROUND JAMESTOWN AND SOUTH BY 4 AM CST.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES...AND EXPECT THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...AND TEMPERATURES THERE WERE AROUND 20-25
BELOW ZERO WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT THE
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA BORDER BY DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING MORNING. CLEARING
SKIES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.

WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
AND BE MORE INFLUENCED BY THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE EXTENDS TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH
DAKOTA...AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE
TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND LOWER 20S FAR SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CLOUDS. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ABOVE ZERO IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...EVEN REMAINING
IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE
GREATEST ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY LIFTING NORTHERLY
TOWARDS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE GREATEST SNOW CHANCES MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AROUND 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL FORM
ALONG WITH THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH
THE AREA. LATEST SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT ANY FREEZING RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/WEST OF HIGHWAYS 2 AND 52 IN AREAS OF LESS
LIFT...THOUGH STILL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...THOUGH COULD BE ENOUGH TO
POSSIBLY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FROM THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WHILE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH A VARIETY OF
WEAK IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH. WARMER AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA
BRINGING A SHARP TEMPERATURE CONTRAST BETWEEN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE STATE. LOW PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY...SPREADING SOUTH IN THE EVENING AS
LOW SHIFTS THROUGH. STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT REMAINS.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING SOME FRIGID CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE  REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN.
SOME SNOW MAY DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT PASSING...WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REBOUND AGAIN EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
A LOW STARTS DEVELOPING TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BRINGING WARM
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER TAF SITES AT 06Z. SOME HINT AT
SCATTERING OUT OVER KMOT DURING THE EARLY MORNING...BUT SAW
OBSERVATIONS IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH MVFR CIG DESPITE SAT PICS
INDICATING SOME CLEARING...AND KEPT KMOT IN MVFR. IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE WILL INDUCES SOME -SN FLURRIES. GRADUALLY BECOMING
VFR AT KMOT AND KJMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT KDIK SHOULD REMAIN
MVFR AND OCNL IFR WITH LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN AFT 00Z
TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 260941
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE AREA OF SNOW MOVING OUT OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THE LINGERING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LIGHT SNOW TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST.

CURRENTLY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY`S SNOW
WAS OVER THE BORDER OF SD/NE/IA. THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD/EXITING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN NORTH DAKOTA - NEAR OAKES. NORTH WINDS OF
AROUND 20 MPH WERE OBSERVED AT 3 AM CST...AND THE THREAT OF BLOWING
OR DRIFTING SNOW WAS WANING. THEREFORE WILL END THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES AROUND JAMESTOWN AND SOUTH BY 4 AM CST.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES...AND EXPECT THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...AND TEMPERATURES THERE WERE AROUND 20-25
BELOW ZERO WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT THE
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA BORDER BY DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING MORNING. CLEARING
SKIES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.

WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
AND BE MORE INFLUENCED BY THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE EXTENDS TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH
DAKOTA...AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE
TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND LOWER 20S FAR SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CLOUDS. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ABOVE ZERO IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...EVEN REMAINING
IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE
GREATEST ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY LIFTING NORTHERLY
TOWARDS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE GREATEST SNOW CHANCES MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AROUND 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL FORM
ALONG WITH THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH
THE AREA. LATEST SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT ANY FREEZING RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/WEST OF HIGHWAYS 2 AND 52 IN AREAS OF LESS
LIFT...THOUGH STILL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...THOUGH COULD BE ENOUGH TO
POSSIBLY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FROM THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WHILE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH A VARIETY OF
WEAK IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH. WARMER AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA
BRINGING A SHARP TEMPERATURE CONTRAST BETWEEN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE STATE. LOW PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY...SPREADING SOUTH IN THE EVENING AS
LOW SHIFTS THROUGH. STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT REMAINS.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING SOME FRIGID CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE  REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN.
SOME SNOW MAY DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT PASSING...WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REBOUND AGAIN EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
A LOW STARTS DEVELOPING TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BRINGING WARM
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER TAF SITES AT 06Z. SOME HINT AT
SCATTERING OUT OVER KMOT DURING THE EARLY MORNING...BUT SAW
OBSERVATIONS IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH MVFR CIG DESPITE SAT PICS
INDICATING SOME CLEARING...AND KEPT KMOT IN MVFR. IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE WILL INDUCES SOME -SN FLURRIES. GRADUALLY BECOMING
VFR AT KMOT AND KJMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT KDIK SHOULD REMAIN
MVFR AND OCNL IFR WITH LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN AFT 00Z
TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 260941
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE AREA OF SNOW MOVING OUT OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THE LINGERING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LIGHT SNOW TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST.

CURRENTLY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY`S SNOW
WAS OVER THE BORDER OF SD/NE/IA. THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD/EXITING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN NORTH DAKOTA - NEAR OAKES. NORTH WINDS OF
AROUND 20 MPH WERE OBSERVED AT 3 AM CST...AND THE THREAT OF BLOWING
OR DRIFTING SNOW WAS WANING. THEREFORE WILL END THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES AROUND JAMESTOWN AND SOUTH BY 4 AM CST.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES...AND EXPECT THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...AND TEMPERATURES THERE WERE AROUND 20-25
BELOW ZERO WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT THE
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA BORDER BY DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING MORNING. CLEARING
SKIES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.

WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
AND BE MORE INFLUENCED BY THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE EXTENDS TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH
DAKOTA...AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE
TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND LOWER 20S FAR SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CLOUDS. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ABOVE ZERO IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...EVEN REMAINING
IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE
GREATEST ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY LIFTING NORTHERLY
TOWARDS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE GREATEST SNOW CHANCES MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AROUND 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL FORM
ALONG WITH THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH
THE AREA. LATEST SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT ANY FREEZING RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/WEST OF HIGHWAYS 2 AND 52 IN AREAS OF LESS
LIFT...THOUGH STILL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...THOUGH COULD BE ENOUGH TO
POSSIBLY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FROM THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WHILE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH A VARIETY OF
WEAK IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH. WARMER AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA
BRINGING A SHARP TEMPERATURE CONTRAST BETWEEN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE STATE. LOW PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY...SPREADING SOUTH IN THE EVENING AS
LOW SHIFTS THROUGH. STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT REMAINS.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING SOME FRIGID CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE  REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN.
SOME SNOW MAY DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT PASSING...WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REBOUND AGAIN EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
A LOW STARTS DEVELOPING TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BRINGING WARM
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER TAF SITES AT 06Z. SOME HINT AT
SCATTERING OUT OVER KMOT DURING THE EARLY MORNING...BUT SAW
OBSERVATIONS IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH MVFR CIG DESPITE SAT PICS
INDICATING SOME CLEARING...AND KEPT KMOT IN MVFR. IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE WILL INDUCES SOME -SN FLURRIES. GRADUALLY BECOMING
VFR AT KMOT AND KJMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT KDIK SHOULD REMAIN
MVFR AND OCNL IFR WITH LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN AFT 00Z
TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 260642
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1242 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

KEEPING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING IN THE JAMES VALLEY AND
JUST WEST OF IT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SNOW STILL FALLING
IN THIS AREA WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. WILL EVALUATE LATER THIS
MORNING WHETHER TO END THE ADVISORY EARLY OR KEEP IT GOING UNTIL 6
AM CST.

OTHERWISE MINOR CHANGES IN HOURLY TEMPERATURES WITH COLD ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHEAST. ALSO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW ALL AREAS: THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS AND OBSERVATIONS IN
SOUTHERN CANADA INDICATING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THIS AREA.

OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO CONTINUE TO SHRINK THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WITH THIS UPDATE...CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SHRUNK THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC SUGGEST THAT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND
CANCELLED WHAT WAS LEFT OF THE ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS OF 02 UTC IS NOW BECOMING
FOCUSED ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND TRIMMED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE BAND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATE TO TRIM DOWN THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER WEATHER AND
WIND ADVISORIES.

THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NOW BOUNDED GENERALLY BY US
HIGHWAY 2 ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHWAY 83 ACROSS THE WEST AS OF 00
UTC THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR...NAMELY ITS 21-22 UTC RUNS...ALL INGREDIENTS SUPPORTIVE OF
MESOSCALE BANDING WITH STEEP MID LEVELS LAPSE RATES...STRONG OMEGA
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE FORCING
WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF...FOCUSING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES AS THE SNOW HAS NEARLY
ENDED WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS
TONIGHT. SO REPLACED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH A WIND
ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO SHORTENED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CENTRAL WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. THE
REST OF THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT NORTHEAST
AND 6 AM CST JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SNOW SPREADING EAST AND ENDING
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 3 TO 4 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH 2 INCHES TOTAL SOUTH CENTRAL.

CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRUSH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
MODELS HAVE LOWERED THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ADJUSTED
THE SNOW TOTALS DOWN BY AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS AS A RESULT. GIVEN
THE WAFFLING MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN SNOW AMOUNTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

WARM AND DRY AIR WILL THEN ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A SURFACE CYCLONE WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS THEN
PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS.

THE COLD CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER TAF SITES AT 06Z. SOME HINT AT
SCATTERING OUT OVER KMOT DURING THE EARLY MORNING...BUT SAW
OBSERVATIONS IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH MVFR CIG DESPITE SAT PICS
INDICATING SOME CLEARING...AND KEPT KMOT IN MVFR. IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE WILL INDUCES SOME -SN FLURRIES. GRADUALLY BECOMING
VFR AT KMOT AND KJMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT KDIK SHOULD REMAIN
MVFR AND OCNL IFR WITH LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN AFT 00Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 260554
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1154 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP FROM NEAR FGN TO NEAR DVL.
TRAILING EDGE OF PRECIP WAS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KNOTS.
FOG LOOP/SURFACE OBS SHOW CLEARING LINE SOUTH OF YWG. PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE TO PLOD SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WILL TWEAK POPS TO ROUGHLY
CURRENT RADAR CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR INDICATED STRONGER RETURNS WERE SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS BARNES
AND WESTERN CASS COUNTIES. RADAR INDICATED TWO TO THREE INCHES OVER
WESTERN BARNES COUNTY. HIGHER REPORTS WERE OVER STUTSMAN
COUNTY...RADAR MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING A LITTLE. BAND OF SNOW
DEVELOPING OVER GRAND FORK AND NELSON COUNTIES WITH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN. TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER TOWNER, CAVALIER AND PEMBINA
COUNTIES. SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS
EVENING. WILL LOWER TEMPS COUPLE DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE REST OF AREA ON TRACK WITH TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT
THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET FROM MT NOSING INTO KS. A
SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN SD. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST.

RADAR INDICATED HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER STEELE, EDDY AND BARNES
COUNTIES. PRECIP APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
RADAR ESTIMATED AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW OVER PARTS OF EDDY AND
WESTERN BARNES COUNTIES AND CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS SNOW. LATEST HRRR/RAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SNOW A
BIT THIS EVENIGN AND KEEPS MUCH ANYTHING MORE THAN 2 INCHES WEST
OF FCST AREA. MAIN SNOW SEEN ON RADAR MINOT-RUGBY AREA AND THIS
WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARD JAMESTOWN THIS EVENING. FARTHER
EAST LIGHT SNOWS WITH OBS UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA AND RADARS SHOW
SOME GENERAL VERY LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEASTERN ND
AND NORTHWESTERN MN TONIGHT. ACCUMS HERE VERY LIGHT. FOR FARGO
AREA DOES APPEAR ANY THREAT FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES IS WEST OF AREA
PERHAPS CLIPPING SOUTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY...BUT FOR THE CITY 1
INCH IS MORE LIKELY THAN 2. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY BUT WIND SPEEDS IN THE
15-25 MPH SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW HAZARD SO PATCHY BLSN
IS GOOD. TEMPS DROP LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CLEARING
WORKS IN. CLEARING SPREADS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA WED NIGHT. QUITE COLD WITH HIGH AND ANY
FRESH AREAS COULD WELL SEE TEMPS 15 BELOW OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THURSDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST. SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THIS. GFS SHOWS QUITE STRONG 850 MB WARM
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TOO SO
LIKELY VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES COLD AIR MAKING
FOR GOOD FLUFF FACTOR. EXPECTING A QUICK 2-4 INCHES THU NIGHT
MAINLY NE ND/NW MN. ON FRIDAY LARGE DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR
AHD OF SYSTEM FOR FRI NIGHT...WITH GEM/ECMWF WARMING SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FCSTA REA UP CONSIDERABLY AND GFS COLDER WITH LIGHT SNOW.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE SYSTEM BY ANOTHER
CLIPPER SETTING UP TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY). THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING MOST PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BORDER
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS SNOW INTO THE REGION MUCH QUICKER AND HAS THE
SFC LOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BY 06Z SAT...WHEREAS THE EMCWF HAS THE
LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AT THAT TIME. CURRENT SUPERBLEND SOLUTION USED
FOR POPS HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...WHICH MAY BE TRUE BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE
BORDER. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHEN AND WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE AND WILL KEEP CONTINUITY. ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER AS
WELL...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...EXTREMELY COLD FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOMEWHAT OF A WARMUP NEAR DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

IFR CONDITIONS ARE SHIFTING INTO SOUTHEAST ND. MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE AREA IS IN MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME VFR CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES. CLEARING GOING ON OVER SOUTHERN MAN AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTH
REST OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING LINE SHOULD REACH ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES BY SUNRISE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-
     028-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 260554
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1154 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP FROM NEAR FGN TO NEAR DVL.
TRAILING EDGE OF PRECIP WAS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KNOTS.
FOG LOOP/SURFACE OBS SHOW CLEARING LINE SOUTH OF YWG. PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE TO PLOD SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WILL TWEAK POPS TO ROUGHLY
CURRENT RADAR CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR INDICATED STRONGER RETURNS WERE SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS BARNES
AND WESTERN CASS COUNTIES. RADAR INDICATED TWO TO THREE INCHES OVER
WESTERN BARNES COUNTY. HIGHER REPORTS WERE OVER STUTSMAN
COUNTY...RADAR MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING A LITTLE. BAND OF SNOW
DEVELOPING OVER GRAND FORK AND NELSON COUNTIES WITH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN. TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER TOWNER, CAVALIER AND PEMBINA
COUNTIES. SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS
EVENING. WILL LOWER TEMPS COUPLE DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE REST OF AREA ON TRACK WITH TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT
THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET FROM MT NOSING INTO KS. A
SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN SD. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST.

RADAR INDICATED HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER STEELE, EDDY AND BARNES
COUNTIES. PRECIP APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
RADAR ESTIMATED AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW OVER PARTS OF EDDY AND
WESTERN BARNES COUNTIES AND CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS SNOW. LATEST HRRR/RAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SNOW A
BIT THIS EVENIGN AND KEEPS MUCH ANYTHING MORE THAN 2 INCHES WEST
OF FCST AREA. MAIN SNOW SEEN ON RADAR MINOT-RUGBY AREA AND THIS
WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARD JAMESTOWN THIS EVENING. FARTHER
EAST LIGHT SNOWS WITH OBS UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA AND RADARS SHOW
SOME GENERAL VERY LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEASTERN ND
AND NORTHWESTERN MN TONIGHT. ACCUMS HERE VERY LIGHT. FOR FARGO
AREA DOES APPEAR ANY THREAT FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES IS WEST OF AREA
PERHAPS CLIPPING SOUTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY...BUT FOR THE CITY 1
INCH IS MORE LIKELY THAN 2. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY BUT WIND SPEEDS IN THE
15-25 MPH SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW HAZARD SO PATCHY BLSN
IS GOOD. TEMPS DROP LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CLEARING
WORKS IN. CLEARING SPREADS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA WED NIGHT. QUITE COLD WITH HIGH AND ANY
FRESH AREAS COULD WELL SEE TEMPS 15 BELOW OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THURSDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST. SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THIS. GFS SHOWS QUITE STRONG 850 MB WARM
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TOO SO
LIKELY VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES COLD AIR MAKING
FOR GOOD FLUFF FACTOR. EXPECTING A QUICK 2-4 INCHES THU NIGHT
MAINLY NE ND/NW MN. ON FRIDAY LARGE DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR
AHD OF SYSTEM FOR FRI NIGHT...WITH GEM/ECMWF WARMING SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FCSTA REA UP CONSIDERABLY AND GFS COLDER WITH LIGHT SNOW.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE SYSTEM BY ANOTHER
CLIPPER SETTING UP TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY). THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING MOST PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BORDER
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS SNOW INTO THE REGION MUCH QUICKER AND HAS THE
SFC LOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BY 06Z SAT...WHEREAS THE EMCWF HAS THE
LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AT THAT TIME. CURRENT SUPERBLEND SOLUTION USED
FOR POPS HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...WHICH MAY BE TRUE BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE
BORDER. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHEN AND WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE AND WILL KEEP CONTINUITY. ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER AS
WELL...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...EXTREMELY COLD FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOMEWHAT OF A WARMUP NEAR DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

IFR CONDITIONS ARE SHIFTING INTO SOUTHEAST ND. MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE AREA IS IN MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME VFR CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES. CLEARING GOING ON OVER SOUTHERN MAN AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTH
REST OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING LINE SHOULD REACH ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES BY SUNRISE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-
     028-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KBIS 260451
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1051 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO CONTNUE TO SHRINK THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WITH THIS UPDATE...CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SHRUNK THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC SUGGEST THAT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND
CANCELLED WHAT WAS LEFT OF THE ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS OF 02 UTC IS NOW BECOMING
FOCUSED ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND TRIMMED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE BAND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATE TO TRIM DOWN THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER WEATHER AND
WIND ADVISORIES.

THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NOW BOUNDED GENERALLY BY US
HIGHWAY 2 ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHWAY 83 ACROSS THE WEST AS OF 00
UTC THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR...NAMELY ITS 21-22 UTC RUNS...ALL INGREDIENTS SUPPORTIVE OF
MESOSCALE BANDING WITH STEEP MID LEVELS LAPSE RATES...STRONG OMEGA
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE FORCING
WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF...FOCUSING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES AS THE SNOW HAS NEARLY
ENDED WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS
TONIGHT. SO REPLACED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH A WIND
ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO SHORTENED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CENTRAL WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. THE
REST OF THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT NORTHEAST
AND 6 AM CST JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SNOW SPREADING EAST AND ENDING
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 3 TO 4 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH 2 INCHES TOTAL SOUTH CENTRAL.

CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRUSH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENSIS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
MODELS HAVE LOWERED THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ADJUSTED
THE SNOW TOTALS DOWN BY AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS AS A RESULT. GIVEN
THE WAFFLING MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN SNOW AMOUNTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

WARM AND DRY AIR WILL THEN ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A SURFACE CYCLONE WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS THEN
PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS.

THE COLD CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH 05-06
UTC...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 08-09
UTC. OTHERWISE...MVFR STRATUS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED POCKETS OF
IFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KBIS/KMOT/KDIK
TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ025-036-
037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 260451
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1051 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO CONTNUE TO SHRINK THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WITH THIS UPDATE...CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SHRUNK THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC SUGGEST THAT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND
CANCELLED WHAT WAS LEFT OF THE ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS OF 02 UTC IS NOW BECOMING
FOCUSED ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND TRIMMED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE BAND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATE TO TRIM DOWN THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER WEATHER AND
WIND ADVISORIES.

THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NOW BOUNDED GENERALLY BY US
HIGHWAY 2 ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHWAY 83 ACROSS THE WEST AS OF 00
UTC THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR...NAMELY ITS 21-22 UTC RUNS...ALL INGREDIENTS SUPPORTIVE OF
MESOSCALE BANDING WITH STEEP MID LEVELS LAPSE RATES...STRONG OMEGA
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE FORCING
WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF...FOCUSING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES AS THE SNOW HAS NEARLY
ENDED WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS
TONIGHT. SO REPLACED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH A WIND
ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO SHORTENED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CENTRAL WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. THE
REST OF THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT NORTHEAST
AND 6 AM CST JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SNOW SPREADING EAST AND ENDING
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 3 TO 4 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH 2 INCHES TOTAL SOUTH CENTRAL.

CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRUSH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENSIS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
MODELS HAVE LOWERED THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ADJUSTED
THE SNOW TOTALS DOWN BY AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS AS A RESULT. GIVEN
THE WAFFLING MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN SNOW AMOUNTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

WARM AND DRY AIR WILL THEN ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A SURFACE CYCLONE WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS THEN
PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS.

THE COLD CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH 05-06
UTC...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 08-09
UTC. OTHERWISE...MVFR STRATUS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED POCKETS OF
IFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KBIS/KMOT/KDIK
TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ025-036-
037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 260451
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1051 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO CONTNUE TO SHRINK THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WITH THIS UPDATE...CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SHRUNK THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC SUGGEST THAT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND
CANCELLED WHAT WAS LEFT OF THE ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS OF 02 UTC IS NOW BECOMING
FOCUSED ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND TRIMMED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE BAND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATE TO TRIM DOWN THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER WEATHER AND
WIND ADVISORIES.

THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NOW BOUNDED GENERALLY BY US
HIGHWAY 2 ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHWAY 83 ACROSS THE WEST AS OF 00
UTC THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR...NAMELY ITS 21-22 UTC RUNS...ALL INGREDIENTS SUPPORTIVE OF
MESOSCALE BANDING WITH STEEP MID LEVELS LAPSE RATES...STRONG OMEGA
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE FORCING
WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF...FOCUSING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES AS THE SNOW HAS NEARLY
ENDED WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS
TONIGHT. SO REPLACED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH A WIND
ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO SHORTENED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CENTRAL WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. THE
REST OF THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT NORTHEAST
AND 6 AM CST JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SNOW SPREADING EAST AND ENDING
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 3 TO 4 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH 2 INCHES TOTAL SOUTH CENTRAL.

CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRUSH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENSIS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
MODELS HAVE LOWERED THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ADJUSTED
THE SNOW TOTALS DOWN BY AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS AS A RESULT. GIVEN
THE WAFFLING MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN SNOW AMOUNTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

WARM AND DRY AIR WILL THEN ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A SURFACE CYCLONE WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS THEN
PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS.

THE COLD CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH 05-06
UTC...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 08-09
UTC. OTHERWISE...MVFR STRATUS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED POCKETS OF
IFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KBIS/KMOT/KDIK
TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ025-036-
037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 260451
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1051 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO CONTNUE TO SHRINK THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WITH THIS UPDATE...CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SHRUNK THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC SUGGEST THAT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND
CANCELLED WHAT WAS LEFT OF THE ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS OF 02 UTC IS NOW BECOMING
FOCUSED ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND TRIMMED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE BAND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATE TO TRIM DOWN THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER WEATHER AND
WIND ADVISORIES.

THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NOW BOUNDED GENERALLY BY US
HIGHWAY 2 ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHWAY 83 ACROSS THE WEST AS OF 00
UTC THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR...NAMELY ITS 21-22 UTC RUNS...ALL INGREDIENTS SUPPORTIVE OF
MESOSCALE BANDING WITH STEEP MID LEVELS LAPSE RATES...STRONG OMEGA
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE FORCING
WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF...FOCUSING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES AS THE SNOW HAS NEARLY
ENDED WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS
TONIGHT. SO REPLACED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH A WIND
ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO SHORTENED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CENTRAL WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. THE
REST OF THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT NORTHEAST
AND 6 AM CST JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SNOW SPREADING EAST AND ENDING
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 3 TO 4 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH 2 INCHES TOTAL SOUTH CENTRAL.

CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRUSH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENSIS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
MODELS HAVE LOWERED THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ADJUSTED
THE SNOW TOTALS DOWN BY AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS AS A RESULT. GIVEN
THE WAFFLING MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN SNOW AMOUNTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

WARM AND DRY AIR WILL THEN ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A SURFACE CYCLONE WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS THEN
PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS.

THE COLD CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH 05-06
UTC...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 08-09
UTC. OTHERWISE...MVFR STRATUS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED POCKETS OF
IFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KBIS/KMOT/KDIK
TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ025-036-
037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KFGF 260400
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1000 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR INDICATED STRONGER RETURNS WERE SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS BARNES
AND WESTERN CASS COUNTIES. RADAR INDICATED TWO TO THREE INCHES OVER
WESTERN BARNES COUNTY. HIGHER REPORTS WERE OVER STUTSMAN
COUNTY...RADAR MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING A LITTLE. BAND OF SNOW
DEVELOPING OVER GRAND FORK AND NELSON COUNTIES WITH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN. TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER TOWNER, CAVALIER AND PEMBINA
COUNTIES. SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS
EVENING. WILL LOWER TEMPS COUPLE DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE REST OF AREA ON TRACK WITH TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT
THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET FROM MT NOSING INTO KS. A
SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN SD. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST.

RADAR INDICATED HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER STEELE, EDDY AND BARNES
COUNTIES. PRECIP APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
RADAR ESTIMATED AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW OVER PARTS OF EDDY AND
WESTERN BARNES COUNTIES AND CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS SNOW. LATEST HRRR/RAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SNOW A
BIT THIS EVENIGN AND KEEPS MUCH ANYTHING MORE THAN 2 INCHES WEST
OF FCST AREA. MAIN SNOW SEEN ON RADAR MINOT-RUGBY AREA AND THIS
WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARD JAMESTOWN THIS EVENING. FARTHER
EAST LIGHT SNOWS WITH OBS UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA AND RADARS SHOW
SOME GENERAL VERY LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEASTERN ND
AND NORTHWESTERN MN TONIGHT. ACCUMS HERE VERY LIGHT. FOR FARGO
AREA DOES APPEAR ANY THREAT FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES IS WEST OF AREA
PERHAPS CLIPPING SOUTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY...BUT FOR THE CITY 1
INCH IS MORE LIKELY THAN 2. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY BUT WIND SPEEDS IN THE
15-25 MPH SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW HAZARD SO PATCHY BLSN
IS GOOD. TEMPS DROP LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CLEARING
WORKS IN. CLEARING SPREADS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA WED NIGHT. QUITE COLD WITH HIGH AND ANY
FRESH AREAS COULD WELL SEE TEMPS 15 BELOW OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THURSDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST. SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THIS. GFS SHOWS QUITE STRONG 850 MB WARM
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TOO SO
LIKELY VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES COLD AIR MAKING
FOR GOOD FLUFF FACTOR. EXPECTING A QUICK 2-4 INCHES THU NIGHT
MAINLY NE ND/NW MN. ON FRIDAY LARGE DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR
AHD OF SYSTEM FOR FRI NIGHT...WITH GEM/ECMWF WARMING SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FCSTA REA UP CONSIDERABLY AND GFS COLDER WITH LIGHT SNOW.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE SYSTEM BY ANOTHER
CLIPPER SETTING UP TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY). THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING MOST PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BORDER
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS SNOW INTO THE REGION MUCH QUICKER AND HAS THE
SFC LOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BY 06Z SAT...WHEREAS THE EMCWF HAS THE
LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AT THAT TIME. CURRENT SUPERBLEND SOLUTION USED
FOR POPS HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...WHICH MAY BE TRUE BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE
BORDER. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHEN AND WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE AND WILL KEEP CONTINUITY. ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER AS
WELL...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...EXTREMELY COLD FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOMEWHAT OF A WARMUP NEAR DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WERE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ND AND INTO ADJACENT PARTS
OF EASTERN ND DUE TO SNOW. ELSEWHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WERE LOCATED
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
SHOULD HAVE CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-
     028-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 260400
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1000 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR INDICATED STRONGER RETURNS WERE SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS BARNES
AND WESTERN CASS COUNTIES. RADAR INDICATED TWO TO THREE INCHES OVER
WESTERN BARNES COUNTY. HIGHER REPORTS WERE OVER STUTSMAN
COUNTY...RADAR MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING A LITTLE. BAND OF SNOW
DEVELOPING OVER GRAND FORK AND NELSON COUNTIES WITH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN. TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER TOWNER, CAVALIER AND PEMBINA
COUNTIES. SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS
EVENING. WILL LOWER TEMPS COUPLE DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE REST OF AREA ON TRACK WITH TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT
THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET FROM MT NOSING INTO KS. A
SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN SD. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST.

RADAR INDICATED HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER STEELE, EDDY AND BARNES
COUNTIES. PRECIP APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
RADAR ESTIMATED AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW OVER PARTS OF EDDY AND
WESTERN BARNES COUNTIES AND CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS SNOW. LATEST HRRR/RAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SNOW A
BIT THIS EVENIGN AND KEEPS MUCH ANYTHING MORE THAN 2 INCHES WEST
OF FCST AREA. MAIN SNOW SEEN ON RADAR MINOT-RUGBY AREA AND THIS
WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARD JAMESTOWN THIS EVENING. FARTHER
EAST LIGHT SNOWS WITH OBS UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA AND RADARS SHOW
SOME GENERAL VERY LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEASTERN ND
AND NORTHWESTERN MN TONIGHT. ACCUMS HERE VERY LIGHT. FOR FARGO
AREA DOES APPEAR ANY THREAT FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES IS WEST OF AREA
PERHAPS CLIPPING SOUTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY...BUT FOR THE CITY 1
INCH IS MORE LIKELY THAN 2. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY BUT WIND SPEEDS IN THE
15-25 MPH SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW HAZARD SO PATCHY BLSN
IS GOOD. TEMPS DROP LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CLEARING
WORKS IN. CLEARING SPREADS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA WED NIGHT. QUITE COLD WITH HIGH AND ANY
FRESH AREAS COULD WELL SEE TEMPS 15 BELOW OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THURSDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST. SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THIS. GFS SHOWS QUITE STRONG 850 MB WARM
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TOO SO
LIKELY VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES COLD AIR MAKING
FOR GOOD FLUFF FACTOR. EXPECTING A QUICK 2-4 INCHES THU NIGHT
MAINLY NE ND/NW MN. ON FRIDAY LARGE DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR
AHD OF SYSTEM FOR FRI NIGHT...WITH GEM/ECMWF WARMING SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FCSTA REA UP CONSIDERABLY AND GFS COLDER WITH LIGHT SNOW.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE SYSTEM BY ANOTHER
CLIPPER SETTING UP TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY). THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING MOST PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BORDER
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS SNOW INTO THE REGION MUCH QUICKER AND HAS THE
SFC LOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BY 06Z SAT...WHEREAS THE EMCWF HAS THE
LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AT THAT TIME. CURRENT SUPERBLEND SOLUTION USED
FOR POPS HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...WHICH MAY BE TRUE BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE
BORDER. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHEN AND WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE AND WILL KEEP CONTINUITY. ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER AS
WELL...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...EXTREMELY COLD FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOMEWHAT OF A WARMUP NEAR DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WERE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ND AND INTO ADJACENT PARTS
OF EASTERN ND DUE TO SNOW. ELSEWHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WERE LOCATED
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
SHOULD HAVE CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-
     028-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 260400
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1000 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR INDICATED STRONGER RETURNS WERE SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS BARNES
AND WESTERN CASS COUNTIES. RADAR INDICATED TWO TO THREE INCHES OVER
WESTERN BARNES COUNTY. HIGHER REPORTS WERE OVER STUTSMAN
COUNTY...RADAR MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING A LITTLE. BAND OF SNOW
DEVELOPING OVER GRAND FORK AND NELSON COUNTIES WITH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN. TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER TOWNER, CAVALIER AND PEMBINA
COUNTIES. SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS
EVENING. WILL LOWER TEMPS COUPLE DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE REST OF AREA ON TRACK WITH TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT
THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET FROM MT NOSING INTO KS. A
SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN SD. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST.

RADAR INDICATED HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER STEELE, EDDY AND BARNES
COUNTIES. PRECIP APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
RADAR ESTIMATED AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW OVER PARTS OF EDDY AND
WESTERN BARNES COUNTIES AND CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS SNOW. LATEST HRRR/RAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SNOW A
BIT THIS EVENIGN AND KEEPS MUCH ANYTHING MORE THAN 2 INCHES WEST
OF FCST AREA. MAIN SNOW SEEN ON RADAR MINOT-RUGBY AREA AND THIS
WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARD JAMESTOWN THIS EVENING. FARTHER
EAST LIGHT SNOWS WITH OBS UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA AND RADARS SHOW
SOME GENERAL VERY LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEASTERN ND
AND NORTHWESTERN MN TONIGHT. ACCUMS HERE VERY LIGHT. FOR FARGO
AREA DOES APPEAR ANY THREAT FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES IS WEST OF AREA
PERHAPS CLIPPING SOUTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY...BUT FOR THE CITY 1
INCH IS MORE LIKELY THAN 2. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY BUT WIND SPEEDS IN THE
15-25 MPH SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW HAZARD SO PATCHY BLSN
IS GOOD. TEMPS DROP LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CLEARING
WORKS IN. CLEARING SPREADS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA WED NIGHT. QUITE COLD WITH HIGH AND ANY
FRESH AREAS COULD WELL SEE TEMPS 15 BELOW OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THURSDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST. SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THIS. GFS SHOWS QUITE STRONG 850 MB WARM
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TOO SO
LIKELY VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES COLD AIR MAKING
FOR GOOD FLUFF FACTOR. EXPECTING A QUICK 2-4 INCHES THU NIGHT
MAINLY NE ND/NW MN. ON FRIDAY LARGE DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR
AHD OF SYSTEM FOR FRI NIGHT...WITH GEM/ECMWF WARMING SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FCSTA REA UP CONSIDERABLY AND GFS COLDER WITH LIGHT SNOW.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE SYSTEM BY ANOTHER
CLIPPER SETTING UP TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY). THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING MOST PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BORDER
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS SNOW INTO THE REGION MUCH QUICKER AND HAS THE
SFC LOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BY 06Z SAT...WHEREAS THE EMCWF HAS THE
LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AT THAT TIME. CURRENT SUPERBLEND SOLUTION USED
FOR POPS HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...WHICH MAY BE TRUE BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE
BORDER. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHEN AND WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE AND WILL KEEP CONTINUITY. ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER AS
WELL...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...EXTREMELY COLD FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOMEWHAT OF A WARMUP NEAR DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WERE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ND AND INTO ADJACENT PARTS
OF EASTERN ND DUE TO SNOW. ELSEWHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WERE LOCATED
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
SHOULD HAVE CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-
     028-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 260400
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1000 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR INDICATED STRONGER RETURNS WERE SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS BARNES
AND WESTERN CASS COUNTIES. RADAR INDICATED TWO TO THREE INCHES OVER
WESTERN BARNES COUNTY. HIGHER REPORTS WERE OVER STUTSMAN
COUNTY...RADAR MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING A LITTLE. BAND OF SNOW
DEVELOPING OVER GRAND FORK AND NELSON COUNTIES WITH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN. TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER TOWNER, CAVALIER AND PEMBINA
COUNTIES. SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS
EVENING. WILL LOWER TEMPS COUPLE DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE REST OF AREA ON TRACK WITH TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT
THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET FROM MT NOSING INTO KS. A
SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN SD. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST.

RADAR INDICATED HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER STEELE, EDDY AND BARNES
COUNTIES. PRECIP APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
RADAR ESTIMATED AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW OVER PARTS OF EDDY AND
WESTERN BARNES COUNTIES AND CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS SNOW. LATEST HRRR/RAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SNOW A
BIT THIS EVENIGN AND KEEPS MUCH ANYTHING MORE THAN 2 INCHES WEST
OF FCST AREA. MAIN SNOW SEEN ON RADAR MINOT-RUGBY AREA AND THIS
WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARD JAMESTOWN THIS EVENING. FARTHER
EAST LIGHT SNOWS WITH OBS UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA AND RADARS SHOW
SOME GENERAL VERY LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEASTERN ND
AND NORTHWESTERN MN TONIGHT. ACCUMS HERE VERY LIGHT. FOR FARGO
AREA DOES APPEAR ANY THREAT FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES IS WEST OF AREA
PERHAPS CLIPPING SOUTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY...BUT FOR THE CITY 1
INCH IS MORE LIKELY THAN 2. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY BUT WIND SPEEDS IN THE
15-25 MPH SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW HAZARD SO PATCHY BLSN
IS GOOD. TEMPS DROP LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CLEARING
WORKS IN. CLEARING SPREADS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA WED NIGHT. QUITE COLD WITH HIGH AND ANY
FRESH AREAS COULD WELL SEE TEMPS 15 BELOW OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THURSDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST. SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THIS. GFS SHOWS QUITE STRONG 850 MB WARM
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TOO SO
LIKELY VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES COLD AIR MAKING
FOR GOOD FLUFF FACTOR. EXPECTING A QUICK 2-4 INCHES THU NIGHT
MAINLY NE ND/NW MN. ON FRIDAY LARGE DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR
AHD OF SYSTEM FOR FRI NIGHT...WITH GEM/ECMWF WARMING SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FCSTA REA UP CONSIDERABLY AND GFS COLDER WITH LIGHT SNOW.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE SYSTEM BY ANOTHER
CLIPPER SETTING UP TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY). THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING MOST PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BORDER
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS SNOW INTO THE REGION MUCH QUICKER AND HAS THE
SFC LOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BY 06Z SAT...WHEREAS THE EMCWF HAS THE
LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AT THAT TIME. CURRENT SUPERBLEND SOLUTION USED
FOR POPS HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...WHICH MAY BE TRUE BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE
BORDER. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHEN AND WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE AND WILL KEEP CONTINUITY. ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER AS
WELL...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...EXTREMELY COLD FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOMEWHAT OF A WARMUP NEAR DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WERE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ND AND INTO ADJACENT PARTS
OF EASTERN ND DUE TO SNOW. ELSEWHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WERE LOCATED
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
SHOULD HAVE CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-
     028-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KBIS 260221
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
821 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 821 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WITH THIS UPDATE...CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SHRUNK THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC SUGGEST THAT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND
CANCELLED WHAT WAS LEFT OF THE ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS OF 02 UTC IS NOW BECOMING
FOCUSED ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND TRIMMED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE BAND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATE TO TRIM DOWN THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER WEATHER AND
WIND ADVISORIES.

THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NOW BOUNDED GENERALLY BY US
HIGHWAY 2 ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHWAY 83 ACROSS THE WEST AS OF 00
UTC THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR...NAMELY ITS 21-22 UTC RUNS...ALL INGREDIENTS SUPPORTIVE OF
MESOSCALE BANDING WITH STEEP MID LEVELS LAPSE RATES...STRONG OMEGA
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE FORCING
WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF...FOCUSING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES AS THE SNOW HAS NEARLY
ENDED WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS
TONIGHT. SO REPLACED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH A WIND
ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO SHORTENED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CENTRAL WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. THE
REST OF THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT NORTHEAST
AND 6 AM CST JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SNOW SPREADING EAST AND ENDING
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 3 TO 4 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH 2 INCHES TOTAL SOUTH CENTRAL.

CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRUSH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENSIS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
MODELS HAVE LOWERED THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ADJUSTED
THE SNOW TOTALS DOWN BY AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS AS A RESULT. GIVEN
THE WAFFLING MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN SNOW AMOUNTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

WARM AND DRY AIR WILL THEN ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A SURFACE CYCLONE WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS THEN
PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS.

THE COLD CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 821 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH 05-06
UTC...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 08-09
UTC. OTHERWISE...MVFR STRATUS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED POCKETS OF
IFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KBIS/KMOT/KDIK
TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ022.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ023-025-
036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 260221
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
821 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 821 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WITH THIS UPDATE...CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SHRUNK THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC SUGGEST THAT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND
CANCELLED WHAT WAS LEFT OF THE ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS OF 02 UTC IS NOW BECOMING
FOCUSED ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND TRIMMED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE BAND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATE TO TRIM DOWN THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER WEATHER AND
WIND ADVISORIES.

THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NOW BOUNDED GENERALLY BY US
HIGHWAY 2 ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHWAY 83 ACROSS THE WEST AS OF 00
UTC THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR...NAMELY ITS 21-22 UTC RUNS...ALL INGREDIENTS SUPPORTIVE OF
MESOSCALE BANDING WITH STEEP MID LEVELS LAPSE RATES...STRONG OMEGA
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE FORCING
WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF...FOCUSING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES AS THE SNOW HAS NEARLY
ENDED WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS
TONIGHT. SO REPLACED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH A WIND
ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO SHORTENED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CENTRAL WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. THE
REST OF THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT NORTHEAST
AND 6 AM CST JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SNOW SPREADING EAST AND ENDING
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 3 TO 4 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH 2 INCHES TOTAL SOUTH CENTRAL.

CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRUSH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENSIS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
MODELS HAVE LOWERED THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ADJUSTED
THE SNOW TOTALS DOWN BY AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS AS A RESULT. GIVEN
THE WAFFLING MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN SNOW AMOUNTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

WARM AND DRY AIR WILL THEN ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A SURFACE CYCLONE WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS THEN
PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS.

THE COLD CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 821 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH 05-06
UTC...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 08-09
UTC. OTHERWISE...MVFR STRATUS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED POCKETS OF
IFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KBIS/KMOT/KDIK
TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ022.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ023-025-
036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 260221
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
821 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 821 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WITH THIS UPDATE...CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SHRUNK THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC SUGGEST THAT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND
CANCELLED WHAT WAS LEFT OF THE ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS OF 02 UTC IS NOW BECOMING
FOCUSED ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND TRIMMED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE BAND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATE TO TRIM DOWN THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER WEATHER AND
WIND ADVISORIES.

THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NOW BOUNDED GENERALLY BY US
HIGHWAY 2 ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHWAY 83 ACROSS THE WEST AS OF 00
UTC THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR...NAMELY ITS 21-22 UTC RUNS...ALL INGREDIENTS SUPPORTIVE OF
MESOSCALE BANDING WITH STEEP MID LEVELS LAPSE RATES...STRONG OMEGA
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE FORCING
WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF...FOCUSING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES AS THE SNOW HAS NEARLY
ENDED WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS
TONIGHT. SO REPLACED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH A WIND
ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO SHORTENED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CENTRAL WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. THE
REST OF THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT NORTHEAST
AND 6 AM CST JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SNOW SPREADING EAST AND ENDING
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 3 TO 4 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH 2 INCHES TOTAL SOUTH CENTRAL.

CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRUSH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENSIS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
MODELS HAVE LOWERED THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ADJUSTED
THE SNOW TOTALS DOWN BY AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS AS A RESULT. GIVEN
THE WAFFLING MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN SNOW AMOUNTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

WARM AND DRY AIR WILL THEN ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A SURFACE CYCLONE WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS THEN
PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS.

THE COLD CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 821 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH 05-06
UTC...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 08-09
UTC. OTHERWISE...MVFR STRATUS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED POCKETS OF
IFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KBIS/KMOT/KDIK
TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ022.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ023-025-
036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 260221
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
821 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 821 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WITH THIS UPDATE...CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SHRUNK THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC SUGGEST THAT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND
CANCELLED WHAT WAS LEFT OF THE ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS OF 02 UTC IS NOW BECOMING
FOCUSED ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND TRIMMED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE BAND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATE TO TRIM DOWN THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER WEATHER AND
WIND ADVISORIES.

THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NOW BOUNDED GENERALLY BY US
HIGHWAY 2 ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHWAY 83 ACROSS THE WEST AS OF 00
UTC THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR...NAMELY ITS 21-22 UTC RUNS...ALL INGREDIENTS SUPPORTIVE OF
MESOSCALE BANDING WITH STEEP MID LEVELS LAPSE RATES...STRONG OMEGA
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE FORCING
WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF...FOCUSING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES AS THE SNOW HAS NEARLY
ENDED WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS
TONIGHT. SO REPLACED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH A WIND
ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO SHORTENED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CENTRAL WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. THE
REST OF THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT NORTHEAST
AND 6 AM CST JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SNOW SPREADING EAST AND ENDING
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 3 TO 4 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH 2 INCHES TOTAL SOUTH CENTRAL.

CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRUSH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENSIS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
MODELS HAVE LOWERED THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ADJUSTED
THE SNOW TOTALS DOWN BY AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS AS A RESULT. GIVEN
THE WAFFLING MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN SNOW AMOUNTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

WARM AND DRY AIR WILL THEN ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A SURFACE CYCLONE WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS THEN
PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS.

THE COLD CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 821 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH 05-06
UTC...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 08-09
UTC. OTHERWISE...MVFR STRATUS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED POCKETS OF
IFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KBIS/KMOT/KDIK
TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ022.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ023-025-
036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KFGF 260117
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
717 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET FROM MT NOSING INTO KS. A
SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN SD. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST.

RADAR INDICATED HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER STEELE, EDDY AND BARNES
COUNTIES. PRECIP APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
RADAR ESTIMATED AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW OVER PARTS OF EDDY AND
WESTERN BARNES COUNTIES AND CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS SNOW. LATEST HRRR/RAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SNOW A
BIT THIS EVENIGN AND KEEPS MUCH ANYTHING MORE THAN 2 INCHES WEST
OF FCST AREA. MAIN SNOW SEEN ON RADAR MINOT-RUGBY AREA AND THIS
WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARD JAMESTOWN THIS EVENING. FARTHER
EAST LIGHT SNOWS WITH OBS UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA AND RADARS SHOW
SOME GENERAL VERY LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEASTERN ND
AND NORTHWESTERN MN TONIGHT. ACCUMS HERE VERY LIGHT. FOR FARGO
AREA DOES APPEAR ANY THREAT FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES IS WEST OF AREA
PERHAPS CLIPPING SOUTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY...BUT FOR THE CITY 1
INCH IS MORE LIKELY THAN 2. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY BUT WIND SPEEDS IN THE
15-25 MPH SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW HAZARD SO PATCHY BLSN
IS GOOD. TEMPS DROP LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CLEARING
WORKS IN. CLEARING SPREADS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA WED NIGHT. QUITE COLD WITH HIGH AND ANY
FRESH AREAS COULD WELL SEE TEMPS 15 BELOW OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THURSDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST. SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THIS. GFS SHOWS QUITE STRONG 850 MB WARM
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TOO SO
LIKELY VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES COLD AIR MAKING
FOR GOOD FLUFF FACTOR. EXPECTING A QUICK 2-4 INCHES THU NIGHT
MAINLY NE ND/NW MN. ON FRIDAY LARGE DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR
AHD OF SYSTEM FOR FRI NIGHT...WITH GEM/ECMWF WARMING SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FCSTA REA UP CONSIDERABLY AND GFS COLDER WITH LIGHT SNOW.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE SYSTEM BY ANOTHER
CLIPPER SETTING UP TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY). THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING MOST PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BORDER
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS SNOW INTO THE REGION MUCH QUICKER AND HAS THE
SFC LOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BY 06Z SAT...WHEREAS THE EMCWF HAS THE
LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AT THAT TIME. CURRENT SUPERBLEND SOLUTION USED
FOR POPS HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...WHICH MAY BE TRUE BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE
BORDER. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHEN AND WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE AND WILL KEEP CONTINUITY. ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER AS
WELL...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...EXTREMELY COLD FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOMEWHAT OF A WARMUP NEAR DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WERE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ND AND INTO ADJACENT PARTS
OF EASTERN ND DUE TO SNOW. ELSEWHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WERE LOCATED
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
SHOULD HAVE CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-
     028-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 260117
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
717 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET FROM MT NOSING INTO KS. A
SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN SD. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST.

RADAR INDICATED HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER STEELE, EDDY AND BARNES
COUNTIES. PRECIP APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
RADAR ESTIMATED AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW OVER PARTS OF EDDY AND
WESTERN BARNES COUNTIES AND CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS SNOW. LATEST HRRR/RAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SNOW A
BIT THIS EVENIGN AND KEEPS MUCH ANYTHING MORE THAN 2 INCHES WEST
OF FCST AREA. MAIN SNOW SEEN ON RADAR MINOT-RUGBY AREA AND THIS
WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARD JAMESTOWN THIS EVENING. FARTHER
EAST LIGHT SNOWS WITH OBS UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA AND RADARS SHOW
SOME GENERAL VERY LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEASTERN ND
AND NORTHWESTERN MN TONIGHT. ACCUMS HERE VERY LIGHT. FOR FARGO
AREA DOES APPEAR ANY THREAT FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES IS WEST OF AREA
PERHAPS CLIPPING SOUTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY...BUT FOR THE CITY 1
INCH IS MORE LIKELY THAN 2. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY BUT WIND SPEEDS IN THE
15-25 MPH SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW HAZARD SO PATCHY BLSN
IS GOOD. TEMPS DROP LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CLEARING
WORKS IN. CLEARING SPREADS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA WED NIGHT. QUITE COLD WITH HIGH AND ANY
FRESH AREAS COULD WELL SEE TEMPS 15 BELOW OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THURSDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST. SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THIS. GFS SHOWS QUITE STRONG 850 MB WARM
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TOO SO
LIKELY VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES COLD AIR MAKING
FOR GOOD FLUFF FACTOR. EXPECTING A QUICK 2-4 INCHES THU NIGHT
MAINLY NE ND/NW MN. ON FRIDAY LARGE DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR
AHD OF SYSTEM FOR FRI NIGHT...WITH GEM/ECMWF WARMING SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FCSTA REA UP CONSIDERABLY AND GFS COLDER WITH LIGHT SNOW.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE SYSTEM BY ANOTHER
CLIPPER SETTING UP TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY). THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING MOST PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BORDER
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS SNOW INTO THE REGION MUCH QUICKER AND HAS THE
SFC LOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BY 06Z SAT...WHEREAS THE EMCWF HAS THE
LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AT THAT TIME. CURRENT SUPERBLEND SOLUTION USED
FOR POPS HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...WHICH MAY BE TRUE BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE
BORDER. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHEN AND WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE AND WILL KEEP CONTINUITY. ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER AS
WELL...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...EXTREMELY COLD FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOMEWHAT OF A WARMUP NEAR DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WERE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ND AND INTO ADJACENT PARTS
OF EASTERN ND DUE TO SNOW. ELSEWHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WERE LOCATED
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
SHOULD HAVE CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-
     028-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KBIS 260013
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
613 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATE TO TRIM DOWN THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER WEATHER AND
WIND ADVISORIES.

THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NOW BOUNDED GENERALLY BY US
HIGHWAY 2 ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHWAY 83 ACROSS THE WEST AS OF 00
UTC THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR...NAMELY ITS 21-22 UTC RUNS...ALL INGREDIENTS SUPPORTIVE OF
MESOSCALE BANDING WITH STEEP MID LEVELS LAPSE RATES...STRONG OMEGA
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE FORCING
WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF...FOCUSING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES AS THE SNOW HAS NEARLY
ENDED WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS
TONIGHT. SO REPLACED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH A WIND
ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO SHORTENED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CENTRAL WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. THE
REST OF THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT NORTHEAST
AND 6 AM CST JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SNOW SPREADING EAST AND ENDING
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 3 TO 4 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH 2 INCHES TOTAL SOUTH CENTRAL.

CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRUSH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENSIS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
MODELS HAVE LOWERED THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ADJUSTED
THE SNOW TOTALS DOWN BY AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS AS A RESULT. GIVEN
THE WAFFLING MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN SNOW AMOUNTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

WARM AND DRY AIR WILL THEN ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A SURFACE CYCLONE WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS THEN
PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS.

THE COLD CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH 05-06
UTC...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 08-09
UTC. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT KBIS AND KMOT WILL IMPROVE BETWEEN
01-03 UTC WITH MVFR STRATUS IMPACTING KISN AND KDIK THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ011-
021-035-046.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ012-
013-022.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ023-025-
036-037-047-048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040-041-
043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 260013
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
613 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATE TO TRIM DOWN THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER WEATHER AND
WIND ADVISORIES.

THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NOW BOUNDED GENERALLY BY US
HIGHWAY 2 ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHWAY 83 ACROSS THE WEST AS OF 00
UTC THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR...NAMELY ITS 21-22 UTC RUNS...ALL INGREDIENTS SUPPORTIVE OF
MESOSCALE BANDING WITH STEEP MID LEVELS LAPSE RATES...STRONG OMEGA
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE FORCING
WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF...FOCUSING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES AS THE SNOW HAS NEARLY
ENDED WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS
TONIGHT. SO REPLACED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH A WIND
ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO SHORTENED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CENTRAL WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. THE
REST OF THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT NORTHEAST
AND 6 AM CST JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SNOW SPREADING EAST AND ENDING
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 3 TO 4 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH 2 INCHES TOTAL SOUTH CENTRAL.

CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRUSH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENSIS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
MODELS HAVE LOWERED THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ADJUSTED
THE SNOW TOTALS DOWN BY AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS AS A RESULT. GIVEN
THE WAFFLING MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN SNOW AMOUNTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

WARM AND DRY AIR WILL THEN ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A SURFACE CYCLONE WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS THEN
PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS.

THE COLD CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH 05-06
UTC...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 08-09
UTC. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT KBIS AND KMOT WILL IMPROVE BETWEEN
01-03 UTC WITH MVFR STRATUS IMPACTING KISN AND KDIK THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ011-
021-035-046.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ012-
013-022.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ023-025-
036-037-047-048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040-041-
043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 260013
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
613 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATE TO TRIM DOWN THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER WEATHER AND
WIND ADVISORIES.

THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NOW BOUNDED GENERALLY BY US
HIGHWAY 2 ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHWAY 83 ACROSS THE WEST AS OF 00
UTC THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR...NAMELY ITS 21-22 UTC RUNS...ALL INGREDIENTS SUPPORTIVE OF
MESOSCALE BANDING WITH STEEP MID LEVELS LAPSE RATES...STRONG OMEGA
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE FORCING
WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF...FOCUSING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES AS THE SNOW HAS NEARLY
ENDED WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS
TONIGHT. SO REPLACED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH A WIND
ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO SHORTENED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CENTRAL WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. THE
REST OF THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT NORTHEAST
AND 6 AM CST JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SNOW SPREADING EAST AND ENDING
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 3 TO 4 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH 2 INCHES TOTAL SOUTH CENTRAL.

CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRUSH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENSIS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
MODELS HAVE LOWERED THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ADJUSTED
THE SNOW TOTALS DOWN BY AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS AS A RESULT. GIVEN
THE WAFFLING MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN SNOW AMOUNTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

WARM AND DRY AIR WILL THEN ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A SURFACE CYCLONE WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS THEN
PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS.

THE COLD CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH 05-06
UTC...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 08-09
UTC. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT KBIS AND KMOT WILL IMPROVE BETWEEN
01-03 UTC WITH MVFR STRATUS IMPACTING KISN AND KDIK THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ011-
021-035-046.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ012-
013-022.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ023-025-
036-037-047-048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040-041-
043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 260013
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
613 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATE TO TRIM DOWN THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER WEATHER AND
WIND ADVISORIES.

THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NOW BOUNDED GENERALLY BY US
HIGHWAY 2 ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHWAY 83 ACROSS THE WEST AS OF 00
UTC THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR...NAMELY ITS 21-22 UTC RUNS...ALL INGREDIENTS SUPPORTIVE OF
MESOSCALE BANDING WITH STEEP MID LEVELS LAPSE RATES...STRONG OMEGA
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE FORCING
WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF...FOCUSING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES AS THE SNOW HAS NEARLY
ENDED WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS
TONIGHT. SO REPLACED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH A WIND
ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO SHORTENED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CENTRAL WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. THE
REST OF THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT NORTHEAST
AND 6 AM CST JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SNOW SPREADING EAST AND ENDING
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 3 TO 4 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH 2 INCHES TOTAL SOUTH CENTRAL.

CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRUSH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENSIS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
MODELS HAVE LOWERED THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ADJUSTED
THE SNOW TOTALS DOWN BY AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS AS A RESULT. GIVEN
THE WAFFLING MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN SNOW AMOUNTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

WARM AND DRY AIR WILL THEN ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A SURFACE CYCLONE WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS THEN
PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS.

THE COLD CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH 05-06
UTC...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 08-09
UTC. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT KBIS AND KMOT WILL IMPROVE BETWEEN
01-03 UTC WITH MVFR STRATUS IMPACTING KISN AND KDIK THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ011-
021-035-046.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ012-
013-022.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ023-025-
036-037-047-048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040-041-
043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KFGF 252146
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
346 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS SNOW. LATEST HRRR/RAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SNOW A
BIT THIS EVENIGN AND KEEPS MUCH ANYTHING MORE THAN 2 INCHES WEST
OF FCST AREA. MAIN SNOW SEEN ON RADAR MINOT-RUGBY AREA AND THIS
WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARD JAMESTOWN THIS EVENING. FARTHER
EAST LIGHT SNOWS WITH OBS UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA AND RADARS SHOW
SOME GENERAL VERY LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEASTERN ND
AND NORTHWESTERN MN TONIGHT. ACCUMS HERE VERY LIGHT. FOR FARGO
AREA DOES APPEAR ANY THREAT FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES IS WEST OF AREA
PERHAPS CLIPPING SOUTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY...BUT FOR THE CITY 1
INCH IS MORE LIKELY THAN 2. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY BUT WIND SPEEDS IN THE
15-25 MPH SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW HAZARD SO PATCHY BLSN
IS GOOD. TEMPS DROP LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CLEARING
WORKS IN. CLEARING SPREADS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA WED NIGHT. QUITE COLD WITH HIGH AND ANY
FRESH AREAS COULD WELL SEE TEMPS 15 BELOW OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THURSDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST. SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THIS. GFS SHOWS QUITE STRONG 850 MB WARM
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TOO SO
LIKELY VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES COLD AIR MAKING
FOR GOOD FLUFF FACTOR. EXPECTING A QUICK 2-4 INCHES THU NIGHT
MAINLY NE ND/NW MN. ON FRIDAY LARGE DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR
AHD OF SYSTEM FOR FRI NIGHT...WITH GEM/ECMWF WARMING SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FCSTA REA UP CONSIDERABLY AND GFS COLDER WITH LIGHT SNOW.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE SYSTEM BY ANOTHER
CLIPPER SETTING UP TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY). THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING MOST PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BORDER
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS SNOW INTO THE REGION MUCH QUICKER AND HAS THE
SFC LOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BY 06Z SAT...WHEREAS THE EMCWF HAS THE
LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AT THAT TIME. CURRENT SUPERBLEND SOLUTION USED
FOR POPS HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...WHICH MAY BE TRUE BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE
BORDER. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHEN AND WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE AND WILL KEEP CONTINUITY. ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER AS
WELL...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...EXTREMELY COLD FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOMEWHAT OF A WARMUP NEAR DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATER AFTERNOON AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOST
LIKELY IMPACT DVL AND FAR...HOWEVER HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST IT GETS
IS A BIT IN QUESTION. GFK IS SEEING SOME FLAKES BUT MAY NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO REDUCE VSBYS. CIGS WILL BE AT LEAST MVFR
THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW...WHEN NORTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO PICK
UP. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-
     028-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ039-049-
     052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 252146
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
346 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS SNOW. LATEST HRRR/RAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SNOW A
BIT THIS EVENIGN AND KEEPS MUCH ANYTHING MORE THAN 2 INCHES WEST
OF FCST AREA. MAIN SNOW SEEN ON RADAR MINOT-RUGBY AREA AND THIS
WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARD JAMESTOWN THIS EVENING. FARTHER
EAST LIGHT SNOWS WITH OBS UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA AND RADARS SHOW
SOME GENERAL VERY LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEASTERN ND
AND NORTHWESTERN MN TONIGHT. ACCUMS HERE VERY LIGHT. FOR FARGO
AREA DOES APPEAR ANY THREAT FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES IS WEST OF AREA
PERHAPS CLIPPING SOUTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY...BUT FOR THE CITY 1
INCH IS MORE LIKELY THAN 2. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY BUT WIND SPEEDS IN THE
15-25 MPH SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW HAZARD SO PATCHY BLSN
IS GOOD. TEMPS DROP LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CLEARING
WORKS IN. CLEARING SPREADS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA WED NIGHT. QUITE COLD WITH HIGH AND ANY
FRESH AREAS COULD WELL SEE TEMPS 15 BELOW OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THURSDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST. SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THIS. GFS SHOWS QUITE STRONG 850 MB WARM
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TOO SO
LIKELY VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES COLD AIR MAKING
FOR GOOD FLUFF FACTOR. EXPECTING A QUICK 2-4 INCHES THU NIGHT
MAINLY NE ND/NW MN. ON FRIDAY LARGE DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR
AHD OF SYSTEM FOR FRI NIGHT...WITH GEM/ECMWF WARMING SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FCSTA REA UP CONSIDERABLY AND GFS COLDER WITH LIGHT SNOW.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE SYSTEM BY ANOTHER
CLIPPER SETTING UP TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY). THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING MOST PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BORDER
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS SNOW INTO THE REGION MUCH QUICKER AND HAS THE
SFC LOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BY 06Z SAT...WHEREAS THE EMCWF HAS THE
LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AT THAT TIME. CURRENT SUPERBLEND SOLUTION USED
FOR POPS HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...WHICH MAY BE TRUE BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE
BORDER. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHEN AND WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE AND WILL KEEP CONTINUITY. ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER AS
WELL...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...EXTREMELY COLD FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOMEWHAT OF A WARMUP NEAR DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATER AFTERNOON AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOST
LIKELY IMPACT DVL AND FAR...HOWEVER HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST IT GETS
IS A BIT IN QUESTION. GFK IS SEEING SOME FLAKES BUT MAY NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO REDUCE VSBYS. CIGS WILL BE AT LEAST MVFR
THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW...WHEN NORTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO PICK
UP. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-
     028-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ039-049-
     052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 252146
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
346 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS SNOW. LATEST HRRR/RAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SNOW A
BIT THIS EVENIGN AND KEEPS MUCH ANYTHING MORE THAN 2 INCHES WEST
OF FCST AREA. MAIN SNOW SEEN ON RADAR MINOT-RUGBY AREA AND THIS
WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARD JAMESTOWN THIS EVENING. FARTHER
EAST LIGHT SNOWS WITH OBS UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA AND RADARS SHOW
SOME GENERAL VERY LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEASTERN ND
AND NORTHWESTERN MN TONIGHT. ACCUMS HERE VERY LIGHT. FOR FARGO
AREA DOES APPEAR ANY THREAT FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES IS WEST OF AREA
PERHAPS CLIPPING SOUTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY...BUT FOR THE CITY 1
INCH IS MORE LIKELY THAN 2. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY BUT WIND SPEEDS IN THE
15-25 MPH SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW HAZARD SO PATCHY BLSN
IS GOOD. TEMPS DROP LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CLEARING
WORKS IN. CLEARING SPREADS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA WED NIGHT. QUITE COLD WITH HIGH AND ANY
FRESH AREAS COULD WELL SEE TEMPS 15 BELOW OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THURSDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST. SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THIS. GFS SHOWS QUITE STRONG 850 MB WARM
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TOO SO
LIKELY VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES COLD AIR MAKING
FOR GOOD FLUFF FACTOR. EXPECTING A QUICK 2-4 INCHES THU NIGHT
MAINLY NE ND/NW MN. ON FRIDAY LARGE DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR
AHD OF SYSTEM FOR FRI NIGHT...WITH GEM/ECMWF WARMING SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FCSTA REA UP CONSIDERABLY AND GFS COLDER WITH LIGHT SNOW.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE SYSTEM BY ANOTHER
CLIPPER SETTING UP TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY). THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING MOST PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BORDER
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS SNOW INTO THE REGION MUCH QUICKER AND HAS THE
SFC LOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BY 06Z SAT...WHEREAS THE EMCWF HAS THE
LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AT THAT TIME. CURRENT SUPERBLEND SOLUTION USED
FOR POPS HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...WHICH MAY BE TRUE BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE
BORDER. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHEN AND WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE AND WILL KEEP CONTINUITY. ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER AS
WELL...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...EXTREMELY COLD FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOMEWHAT OF A WARMUP NEAR DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATER AFTERNOON AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOST
LIKELY IMPACT DVL AND FAR...HOWEVER HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST IT GETS
IS A BIT IN QUESTION. GFK IS SEEING SOME FLAKES BUT MAY NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO REDUCE VSBYS. CIGS WILL BE AT LEAST MVFR
THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW...WHEN NORTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO PICK
UP. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-
     028-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ039-049-
     052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 252146
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
346 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS SNOW. LATEST HRRR/RAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SNOW A
BIT THIS EVENIGN AND KEEPS MUCH ANYTHING MORE THAN 2 INCHES WEST
OF FCST AREA. MAIN SNOW SEEN ON RADAR MINOT-RUGBY AREA AND THIS
WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARD JAMESTOWN THIS EVENING. FARTHER
EAST LIGHT SNOWS WITH OBS UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA AND RADARS SHOW
SOME GENERAL VERY LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEASTERN ND
AND NORTHWESTERN MN TONIGHT. ACCUMS HERE VERY LIGHT. FOR FARGO
AREA DOES APPEAR ANY THREAT FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES IS WEST OF AREA
PERHAPS CLIPPING SOUTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY...BUT FOR THE CITY 1
INCH IS MORE LIKELY THAN 2. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY BUT WIND SPEEDS IN THE
15-25 MPH SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW HAZARD SO PATCHY BLSN
IS GOOD. TEMPS DROP LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CLEARING
WORKS IN. CLEARING SPREADS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA WED NIGHT. QUITE COLD WITH HIGH AND ANY
FRESH AREAS COULD WELL SEE TEMPS 15 BELOW OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THURSDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST. SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THIS. GFS SHOWS QUITE STRONG 850 MB WARM
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TOO SO
LIKELY VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES COLD AIR MAKING
FOR GOOD FLUFF FACTOR. EXPECTING A QUICK 2-4 INCHES THU NIGHT
MAINLY NE ND/NW MN. ON FRIDAY LARGE DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR
AHD OF SYSTEM FOR FRI NIGHT...WITH GEM/ECMWF WARMING SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FCSTA REA UP CONSIDERABLY AND GFS COLDER WITH LIGHT SNOW.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE SYSTEM BY ANOTHER
CLIPPER SETTING UP TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY). THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING MOST PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BORDER
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS SNOW INTO THE REGION MUCH QUICKER AND HAS THE
SFC LOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BY 06Z SAT...WHEREAS THE EMCWF HAS THE
LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AT THAT TIME. CURRENT SUPERBLEND SOLUTION USED
FOR POPS HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...WHICH MAY BE TRUE BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE
BORDER. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHEN AND WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE AND WILL KEEP CONTINUITY. ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER AS
WELL...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...EXTREMELY COLD FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOMEWHAT OF A WARMUP NEAR DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATER AFTERNOON AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOST
LIKELY IMPACT DVL AND FAR...HOWEVER HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST IT GETS
IS A BIT IN QUESTION. GFK IS SEEING SOME FLAKES BUT MAY NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO REDUCE VSBYS. CIGS WILL BE AT LEAST MVFR
THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW...WHEN NORTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO PICK
UP. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-
     028-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ039-049-
     052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 252146
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
346 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS SNOW. LATEST HRRR/RAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SNOW A
BIT THIS EVENIGN AND KEEPS MUCH ANYTHING MORE THAN 2 INCHES WEST
OF FCST AREA. MAIN SNOW SEEN ON RADAR MINOT-RUGBY AREA AND THIS
WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARD JAMESTOWN THIS EVENING. FARTHER
EAST LIGHT SNOWS WITH OBS UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA AND RADARS SHOW
SOME GENERAL VERY LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEASTERN ND
AND NORTHWESTERN MN TONIGHT. ACCUMS HERE VERY LIGHT. FOR FARGO
AREA DOES APPEAR ANY THREAT FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES IS WEST OF AREA
PERHAPS CLIPPING SOUTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY...BUT FOR THE CITY 1
INCH IS MORE LIKELY THAN 2. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY BUT WIND SPEEDS IN THE
15-25 MPH SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW HAZARD SO PATCHY BLSN
IS GOOD. TEMPS DROP LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CLEARING
WORKS IN. CLEARING SPREADS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA WED NIGHT. QUITE COLD WITH HIGH AND ANY
FRESH AREAS COULD WELL SEE TEMPS 15 BELOW OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THURSDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST. SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THIS. GFS SHOWS QUITE STRONG 850 MB WARM
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TOO SO
LIKELY VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES COLD AIR MAKING
FOR GOOD FLUFF FACTOR. EXPECTING A QUICK 2-4 INCHES THU NIGHT
MAINLY NE ND/NW MN. ON FRIDAY LARGE DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR
AHD OF SYSTEM FOR FRI NIGHT...WITH GEM/ECMWF WARMING SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FCSTA REA UP CONSIDERABLY AND GFS COLDER WITH LIGHT SNOW.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE SYSTEM BY ANOTHER
CLIPPER SETTING UP TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY). THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING MOST PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BORDER
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS SNOW INTO THE REGION MUCH QUICKER AND HAS THE
SFC LOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BY 06Z SAT...WHEREAS THE EMCWF HAS THE
LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AT THAT TIME. CURRENT SUPERBLEND SOLUTION USED
FOR POPS HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...WHICH MAY BE TRUE BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE
BORDER. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHEN AND WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE AND WILL KEEP CONTINUITY. ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER AS
WELL...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...EXTREMELY COLD FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOMEWHAT OF A WARMUP NEAR DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATER AFTERNOON AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOST
LIKELY IMPACT DVL AND FAR...HOWEVER HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST IT GETS
IS A BIT IN QUESTION. GFK IS SEEING SOME FLAKES BUT MAY NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO REDUCE VSBYS. CIGS WILL BE AT LEAST MVFR
THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW...WHEN NORTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO PICK
UP. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-
     028-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ039-049-
     052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 252146
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
346 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS SNOW. LATEST HRRR/RAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SNOW A
BIT THIS EVENIGN AND KEEPS MUCH ANYTHING MORE THAN 2 INCHES WEST
OF FCST AREA. MAIN SNOW SEEN ON RADAR MINOT-RUGBY AREA AND THIS
WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARD JAMESTOWN THIS EVENING. FARTHER
EAST LIGHT SNOWS WITH OBS UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA AND RADARS SHOW
SOME GENERAL VERY LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEASTERN ND
AND NORTHWESTERN MN TONIGHT. ACCUMS HERE VERY LIGHT. FOR FARGO
AREA DOES APPEAR ANY THREAT FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES IS WEST OF AREA
PERHAPS CLIPPING SOUTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY...BUT FOR THE CITY 1
INCH IS MORE LIKELY THAN 2. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY BUT WIND SPEEDS IN THE
15-25 MPH SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW HAZARD SO PATCHY BLSN
IS GOOD. TEMPS DROP LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CLEARING
WORKS IN. CLEARING SPREADS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA WED NIGHT. QUITE COLD WITH HIGH AND ANY
FRESH AREAS COULD WELL SEE TEMPS 15 BELOW OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THURSDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST. SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THIS. GFS SHOWS QUITE STRONG 850 MB WARM
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TOO SO
LIKELY VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES COLD AIR MAKING
FOR GOOD FLUFF FACTOR. EXPECTING A QUICK 2-4 INCHES THU NIGHT
MAINLY NE ND/NW MN. ON FRIDAY LARGE DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR
AHD OF SYSTEM FOR FRI NIGHT...WITH GEM/ECMWF WARMING SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FCSTA REA UP CONSIDERABLY AND GFS COLDER WITH LIGHT SNOW.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE SYSTEM BY ANOTHER
CLIPPER SETTING UP TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY). THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING MOST PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BORDER
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS SNOW INTO THE REGION MUCH QUICKER AND HAS THE
SFC LOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BY 06Z SAT...WHEREAS THE EMCWF HAS THE
LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AT THAT TIME. CURRENT SUPERBLEND SOLUTION USED
FOR POPS HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...WHICH MAY BE TRUE BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE
BORDER. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHEN AND WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE AND WILL KEEP CONTINUITY. ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER AS
WELL...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...EXTREMELY COLD FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOMEWHAT OF A WARMUP NEAR DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATER AFTERNOON AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOST
LIKELY IMPACT DVL AND FAR...HOWEVER HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST IT GETS
IS A BIT IN QUESTION. GFK IS SEEING SOME FLAKES BUT MAY NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO REDUCE VSBYS. CIGS WILL BE AT LEAST MVFR
THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW...WHEN NORTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO PICK
UP. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-
     028-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ039-049-
     052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 252146
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
346 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS SNOW. LATEST HRRR/RAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SNOW A
BIT THIS EVENIGN AND KEEPS MUCH ANYTHING MORE THAN 2 INCHES WEST
OF FCST AREA. MAIN SNOW SEEN ON RADAR MINOT-RUGBY AREA AND THIS
WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARD JAMESTOWN THIS EVENING. FARTHER
EAST LIGHT SNOWS WITH OBS UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA AND RADARS SHOW
SOME GENERAL VERY LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEASTERN ND
AND NORTHWESTERN MN TONIGHT. ACCUMS HERE VERY LIGHT. FOR FARGO
AREA DOES APPEAR ANY THREAT FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES IS WEST OF AREA
PERHAPS CLIPPING SOUTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY...BUT FOR THE CITY 1
INCH IS MORE LIKELY THAN 2. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY BUT WIND SPEEDS IN THE
15-25 MPH SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW HAZARD SO PATCHY BLSN
IS GOOD. TEMPS DROP LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CLEARING
WORKS IN. CLEARING SPREADS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA WED NIGHT. QUITE COLD WITH HIGH AND ANY
FRESH AREAS COULD WELL SEE TEMPS 15 BELOW OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THURSDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST. SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THIS. GFS SHOWS QUITE STRONG 850 MB WARM
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TOO SO
LIKELY VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES COLD AIR MAKING
FOR GOOD FLUFF FACTOR. EXPECTING A QUICK 2-4 INCHES THU NIGHT
MAINLY NE ND/NW MN. ON FRIDAY LARGE DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR
AHD OF SYSTEM FOR FRI NIGHT...WITH GEM/ECMWF WARMING SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FCSTA REA UP CONSIDERABLY AND GFS COLDER WITH LIGHT SNOW.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE SYSTEM BY ANOTHER
CLIPPER SETTING UP TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY). THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING MOST PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BORDER
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS SNOW INTO THE REGION MUCH QUICKER AND HAS THE
SFC LOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BY 06Z SAT...WHEREAS THE EMCWF HAS THE
LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AT THAT TIME. CURRENT SUPERBLEND SOLUTION USED
FOR POPS HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...WHICH MAY BE TRUE BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE
BORDER. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHEN AND WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE AND WILL KEEP CONTINUITY. ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER AS
WELL...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...EXTREMELY COLD FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOMEWHAT OF A WARMUP NEAR DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATER AFTERNOON AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOST
LIKELY IMPACT DVL AND FAR...HOWEVER HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST IT GETS
IS A BIT IN QUESTION. GFK IS SEEING SOME FLAKES BUT MAY NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO REDUCE VSBYS. CIGS WILL BE AT LEAST MVFR
THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW...WHEN NORTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO PICK
UP. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-
     028-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ039-049-
     052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 252146
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
346 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS SNOW. LATEST HRRR/RAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SNOW A
BIT THIS EVENIGN AND KEEPS MUCH ANYTHING MORE THAN 2 INCHES WEST
OF FCST AREA. MAIN SNOW SEEN ON RADAR MINOT-RUGBY AREA AND THIS
WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARD JAMESTOWN THIS EVENING. FARTHER
EAST LIGHT SNOWS WITH OBS UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA AND RADARS SHOW
SOME GENERAL VERY LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEASTERN ND
AND NORTHWESTERN MN TONIGHT. ACCUMS HERE VERY LIGHT. FOR FARGO
AREA DOES APPEAR ANY THREAT FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES IS WEST OF AREA
PERHAPS CLIPPING SOUTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY...BUT FOR THE CITY 1
INCH IS MORE LIKELY THAN 2. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY BUT WIND SPEEDS IN THE
15-25 MPH SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW HAZARD SO PATCHY BLSN
IS GOOD. TEMPS DROP LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CLEARING
WORKS IN. CLEARING SPREADS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA WED NIGHT. QUITE COLD WITH HIGH AND ANY
FRESH AREAS COULD WELL SEE TEMPS 15 BELOW OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THURSDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST. SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THIS. GFS SHOWS QUITE STRONG 850 MB WARM
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TOO SO
LIKELY VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES COLD AIR MAKING
FOR GOOD FLUFF FACTOR. EXPECTING A QUICK 2-4 INCHES THU NIGHT
MAINLY NE ND/NW MN. ON FRIDAY LARGE DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR
AHD OF SYSTEM FOR FRI NIGHT...WITH GEM/ECMWF WARMING SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FCSTA REA UP CONSIDERABLY AND GFS COLDER WITH LIGHT SNOW.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE SYSTEM BY ANOTHER
CLIPPER SETTING UP TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY). THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING MOST PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BORDER
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS SNOW INTO THE REGION MUCH QUICKER AND HAS THE
SFC LOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BY 06Z SAT...WHEREAS THE EMCWF HAS THE
LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AT THAT TIME. CURRENT SUPERBLEND SOLUTION USED
FOR POPS HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...WHICH MAY BE TRUE BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE
BORDER. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHEN AND WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE AND WILL KEEP CONTINUITY. ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER AS
WELL...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...EXTREMELY COLD FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOMEWHAT OF A WARMUP NEAR DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATER AFTERNOON AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOST
LIKELY IMPACT DVL AND FAR...HOWEVER HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST IT GETS
IS A BIT IN QUESTION. GFK IS SEEING SOME FLAKES BUT MAY NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO REDUCE VSBYS. CIGS WILL BE AT LEAST MVFR
THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW...WHEN NORTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO PICK
UP. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-
     028-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ039-049-
     052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER








000
FXUS63 KBIS 252133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES AS THE SNOW HAS NEARLY
ENDED WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS
TONIGHT. SO REPLACED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH A WIND
ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO SHORTENED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CENTRAL WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. THE
REST OF THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT NORTHEAST
AND 6 AM CST JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SNOW SPREADING EAST AND ENDING
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 3 TO 4 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH 2 INCHES TOTAL SOUTH CENTRAL.

CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRUSH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENSIS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
MODELS HAVE LOWERED THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ADJUSTED
THE SNOW TOTALS DOWN BY AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS AS A RESULT. GIVEN
THE WAFFLING MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN SNOW AMOUNTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

WARM AND DRY AIR WILL THEN ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A SURFACE CYCLONE WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS THEN
PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS.

THE COLD CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THE LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SNOW AND
IFR CONDITIONS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS MVFR TO LOW VFR
WEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ002-003-010-011-019>021-034-035-042-045-046.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ017-
018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ004-
005-012-013-022.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ023-025-
036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 252133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES AS THE SNOW HAS NEARLY
ENDED WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS
TONIGHT. SO REPLACED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH A WIND
ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO SHORTENED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CENTRAL WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. THE
REST OF THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT NORTHEAST
AND 6 AM CST JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SNOW SPREADING EAST AND ENDING
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 3 TO 4 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH 2 INCHES TOTAL SOUTH CENTRAL.

CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRUSH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENSIS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
MODELS HAVE LOWERED THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ADJUSTED
THE SNOW TOTALS DOWN BY AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS AS A RESULT. GIVEN
THE WAFFLING MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN SNOW AMOUNTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

WARM AND DRY AIR WILL THEN ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A SURFACE CYCLONE WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS THEN
PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS.

THE COLD CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THE LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SNOW AND
IFR CONDITIONS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS MVFR TO LOW VFR
WEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ002-003-010-011-019>021-034-035-042-045-046.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ017-
018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ004-
005-012-013-022.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ023-025-
036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KFGF 251908
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
108 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FCST ON TRACK....VERY LIGHT SNOW ENTERING NE ND FROM MANITOBA.
MAIN SNOW BAND WITH LOW THOUGH MINOT NOW INTO CNTRL ND. CANNOT SEE
ANY REASON TO CHANCE TOTALS OR ADVISORY AREA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW. WILL SIDE WITH MORE OF A GFS/ECMWF MIX THAT IS A BIT FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH SNOW BAND...AND THE 6Z NAM IS STARTING
TO TREND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL.

FOR TODAY...MOST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST...SPREADING PERHAPS INTO THE VALLEY AROUND 00Z WED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SNOW SHOULD INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS DEEPER
ASCENT PER Q VECTOR FIELDS/FGEN AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW WITHIN THE OVERALL
LIGHT SNOW BAND. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FROM NEAR JMS INTO
SOUTHEAST ND...WHERE UP TO 5-6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. IF MORE BANDING
OCCURS...THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR 6-7 INCHES
PERHAPS...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FROM
RAMSEY COUNTY INTO RICHLAND COUNTY AND POINTS WEST INTO EARLY WED
MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT...CAUSING SOME BLOWING SNOW IN SOUTHEAST ND. THE WED
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW/BLOWING SNOW. WE WILL
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW/BLOWING SNOW AND START IN
THE WEST AT 21Z TODAY...STARTING 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST ND...AND RUN
IT THROUGH 15Z WED. IF THERE IS ANY SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH THE
HEAVIER SNOW BAND...THEN WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND IT A BIT TO THE
NORTH...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE A GOOD STARTING POINT. THERE WILL BE
ABOUT 25-30KT TO MIX FROM 925MB WED MORNING AROUND 12Z IN THE
SOUTH VALLEY...SO EXPECT LOW VSBYS AROUND 1/2SM WHEN SNOW
COMBINES WITH INCREASING WINDS.

ON WED...THE SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND IT WILL BE A
COLD DAY WITH TEMPS RISING LITTLE FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...GIVEN FRESH SNOW COVER FOR MOST AREAS AND A 1038MB
HIGH OVER THE REGION...TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO FOR ALL AREAS.

FOR THANKSGIVING...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW MOVING INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE COLD...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO.

FOR THU NIGHT...A BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN WILL MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...FROM 2-4
INCHES MOST LIKELY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL IMPACT
TRAVEL THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
SNOW THREAT. SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD BE IN THE 20-25MPH RANGE...COUPLED
WITH FALLING SNOW THAT COULD BE MODERATE AT TIMES WILL CREATE
TRAVEL ISSUES...STAY TUNED.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHOWS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
AREA WITH THE MEAN JET POSITION CROSSING THE REGION. SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER MONTANA WILL HAVE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS SD...WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER THE
AREA BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PCPN. A VIGOROUS UPPER DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO DIG IN TO THE NRN PLAINS...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN
SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATER AFTERNOON AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOST
LIKELY IMPACT DVL AND FAR...HOWEVER HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST IT GETS
IS A BIT IN QUESTION. GFK IS SEEING SOME FLAKES BUT MAY NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO REDUCE VSBYS. CIGS WILL BE AT LEAST MVFR
THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW...WHEN NORTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO PICK
UP. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-
     028-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...SPEICHER






000
FXUS63 KBIS 251844
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1244 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AT 12 NOON CST IR SAT AND RUC MODEL SHOW THE VORT CENTER PAST
WILLISTON AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. SNOW SHOULD BE QUIT A BIT LIGHTER
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST NOW. THE FOCUS FOR MODERATE SNOW FOR THE NEXT
2 TO 3 HOURS WILL BE FROM STANLEY SOUTHEAST TO BISMARCK. STARTING
TO SEE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 30S SOUTHWEST FOR HIGHS TODAY MAY BE A PROBLEM GETTING
MUCH BLOWING SNOW INITIALLY. AS TEMPERATURES FALL ROADS WILL
BECOME SLICK THERE. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY UNTIL THE BLOWING
SNOW ISSUES ARE RESOLVED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

IR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW VORT MAX JUST NORTHWEST OF WILLISTON MOVING
SOUTHEAST AS RUC13 MODEL SHOWS. TRACK OF THIS VORT SHOULD DEFINE
THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND FOR THE REMAINING MORNING HOURS FROM
WILLISTON TO GARRISON AND NORTH. LIGHTER SNOW SOUTHWEST OF THIS
LINE. WILLISTON SHOWING ONE HALF MILE VSBY IN MODERATE SNOW AT 9
AM CST. SNOW RATES SHOULD BEGIN TO LIGHTEN NORTHWEST ND AS THE
VORT LOBE MOVES PAST LATE THIS AM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS AREA OF SNOW MOVING
INTO EASTERN MONTANA WITH THE MOST RECENT BAKER OB REPORTING SNOW.
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS WESTERN ND LOCATIONS AND
MARMARTH ND DOT WEB CAM NOW SHOWS SNOWFALL OCCURRING. BOWMAN RADAR
ALSO SHOWS STRONGER ECHOES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. ONLY CHANGES WERE
TO BLEND FORECAST TO MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
SNOW TO CONTINUE EXPANDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
AT UPPER LEVELS A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WAS COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW. AS THE SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...THE
SURFACE LOW/CLIPPER WILL ALSO TRACK SOUTHEAST QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL CREATE A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE STATE...THE BEST LIFT/INSTABILITY WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. MEANWHILE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK (SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF ND) WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SYSTEM...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 30S
THERE TODAY. THUS THE SOUTHWEST WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX...WHILE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THE FAR
WEST...BECOME MORE INTENSE WITH TIME AS THE FAVORED SNOW BANDS
APPROACH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CLOSER TO NOON...AND CONTINUE THIS
EVENING OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THUS EXPECTING 3-4 INCHES
OF SNOW IN AN ARC/LINE FROM CROSBY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...TO
STANLEY/MINOT/BOTTINEAU TO BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN AND LINTON/OAKES.
AROUND 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR MAINLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH BLOWING SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED BECAUSE
OF THE FAIRLY WET NATURE OF THE FALLING SNOW...DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS
ROADWAYS COMBINED WITH SNOW-COVERED AND ICY ROADS WILL MAKE FOR
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BEGAN THE ADVISORY IN THE WESTERN QUARTER OF
THE STATE THIS MORNING AND ENDED IT THERE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
BEGAN THE ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
HAVE IT VALID UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN
WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING AND SNOW TAPERING TO FLURRIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INVOLVE PERIODIC CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
AS ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. ON WEDNESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH 1038MB SURFACE HIGH DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF STATE CLOSEST TO SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MONTANA. NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTS OUR AREA ON
THURSDAY WITH SURFACE LOW SUPPORTED BY 120KT 300MB JET STREAK
NUDGING IN FROM MONTANA. SNOW TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH NEAR CANADIAN BORDER AND ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE I-94
CORRIDOR. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WARM POCKET ALOFT BEHIND
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP...SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBILITY OF MIX PRECIP TYPE DEVELOPING. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY NORTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PULL ANOTHER SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE -25 TO
-30F RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS SPREADING THROUGH WEST AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR WESTERN ND
TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...WAA






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