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000
FXUS63 KFGF 020232
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
932 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK NO UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR LATER THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW BECOMING A POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH.
THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE UPPER WAVE...COLD AIR AND SNOW
ACCUMULATING POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS QUICKER AND WOULD GIVE SOME
SNOW TO THE NORTH BUT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THE ECMWF HAS NOT COME
IN YET TODAY...AND IT WAS THE FIRST TO PORTRAY THIS SNOW
POTENTIAL. THE SREF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM WITH SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTH WITH SLOWER...MORE POTENT AND CLOSED 700MB
LOW. WITH ALL THIS SAID...WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL LATER THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS ALSO BEHIND COLD FRONT. GIVEN IT IS
SO EARLY IN SEASON...MANY DETAILS TO IRON OUT.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PERHAPS AN EARLY SHOWER
IN THE FAR EAST. TEMPS WON/T GET TOO COLD AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THOUGH GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS.

ON THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW DROPS INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MOST...AND THERE WILL BE A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THU AFTERNOON...WITH CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES ALONG AND
WEST OF THE VALLEY THU AFTERNOON.

FOR THU NIGHT...THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES CHALLENGING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM NW TO SE.
850MB TEMPS WILL COOL BELOW 0C IN MOST AREAS BY 12Z FRI...WITH
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE
DVL BASIN AFTER 06Z FRI. STRONG NW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP WITH
50KT TO MIX FROM 925MB BY 12Z FRI ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE DVL BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE THU NIGHT IF SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH
ENOUGH. STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE THIS
TIME OF YEAR...IF SNOW RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH. THIS OCCURRED ON
OCTOBER 4 2012 WHEN THERE WAS SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE NORTHERN
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ON FRIDAY...IT WILL BE VERY WINDY WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...THE NAM DEPICTS A
DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW BAND THAT WOULD BE ALL SNOW ACCORDING TO
SOUNDINGS IN MOST AREAS. GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
WARMER...WILL CONFINE SNOW MENTION TO THE DVL BASIN AND GFK AND
POINTS NORTH. THERE WILL BE NEARLY 50KT TO MIX THOUGH...AND IF
SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH ENOUGH WE MAY NEED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EARLY SEASON STORM
POTENTIAL. TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR SOME AREAS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF STRONGEST CAA.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN
THE EAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD GET COLD AND WE COULD HAVE A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE FOR SURE.

FOR SATURDAY...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL AFTER A FROSTY START.
THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE NORTH AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THIS LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS
ON THE 12Z GFS AS THERE ARE ISSUES WITH TODAYS 12Z ECMWF COMING
IN. SEE PREV DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS KEEPS A
HUDSON BAY AREA/WRN ONTARIO UPPER LOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
DISCUSSION. THIS ALONG WITH A CANADIAN ROCKIES RIDGE KEEPS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IN A NW FLOW PATTERN THROUGH DAY 6 AND
7...WHEN THE PATTERN GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A SERIES OF
WAVES FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP PERIODS OF LIGHT POPS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHILE THE DAKOTAS REMAIN DRY. HIGHS AND
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND 30S, RESPECTIVELY, AS THE
PATTERN LIMITS ANY STRONG WARMUP FROM THE COLD AIR MASS COMING IN
DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WITH WINDS DYING DOWN TONIGHT THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG
THE 5000FT CLOUD DECK LINGERS. WENT WITH THE IDEA OF THESE CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. IF A DIFFERENT
TREND APPEARS WILL MODIFY THE TAFS. THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED...WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS COMING BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AT KDVL. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
KGFK/KFAR AREAS AFTER THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...SO WILL ADD
THE HIGHER WINDS AT THESE TWO TAFS IN THE 06Z SET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 020232
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
932 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK NO UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR LATER THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW BECOMING A POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH.
THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE UPPER WAVE...COLD AIR AND SNOW
ACCUMULATING POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS QUICKER AND WOULD GIVE SOME
SNOW TO THE NORTH BUT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THE ECMWF HAS NOT COME
IN YET TODAY...AND IT WAS THE FIRST TO PORTRAY THIS SNOW
POTENTIAL. THE SREF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM WITH SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTH WITH SLOWER...MORE POTENT AND CLOSED 700MB
LOW. WITH ALL THIS SAID...WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL LATER THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS ALSO BEHIND COLD FRONT. GIVEN IT IS
SO EARLY IN SEASON...MANY DETAILS TO IRON OUT.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PERHAPS AN EARLY SHOWER
IN THE FAR EAST. TEMPS WON/T GET TOO COLD AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THOUGH GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS.

ON THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW DROPS INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MOST...AND THERE WILL BE A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THU AFTERNOON...WITH CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES ALONG AND
WEST OF THE VALLEY THU AFTERNOON.

FOR THU NIGHT...THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES CHALLENGING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM NW TO SE.
850MB TEMPS WILL COOL BELOW 0C IN MOST AREAS BY 12Z FRI...WITH
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE
DVL BASIN AFTER 06Z FRI. STRONG NW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP WITH
50KT TO MIX FROM 925MB BY 12Z FRI ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE DVL BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE THU NIGHT IF SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH
ENOUGH. STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE THIS
TIME OF YEAR...IF SNOW RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH. THIS OCCURRED ON
OCTOBER 4 2012 WHEN THERE WAS SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE NORTHERN
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ON FRIDAY...IT WILL BE VERY WINDY WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...THE NAM DEPICTS A
DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW BAND THAT WOULD BE ALL SNOW ACCORDING TO
SOUNDINGS IN MOST AREAS. GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
WARMER...WILL CONFINE SNOW MENTION TO THE DVL BASIN AND GFK AND
POINTS NORTH. THERE WILL BE NEARLY 50KT TO MIX THOUGH...AND IF
SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH ENOUGH WE MAY NEED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EARLY SEASON STORM
POTENTIAL. TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR SOME AREAS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF STRONGEST CAA.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN
THE EAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD GET COLD AND WE COULD HAVE A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE FOR SURE.

FOR SATURDAY...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL AFTER A FROSTY START.
THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE NORTH AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THIS LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS
ON THE 12Z GFS AS THERE ARE ISSUES WITH TODAYS 12Z ECMWF COMING
IN. SEE PREV DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS KEEPS A
HUDSON BAY AREA/WRN ONTARIO UPPER LOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
DISCUSSION. THIS ALONG WITH A CANADIAN ROCKIES RIDGE KEEPS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IN A NW FLOW PATTERN THROUGH DAY 6 AND
7...WHEN THE PATTERN GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A SERIES OF
WAVES FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP PERIODS OF LIGHT POPS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHILE THE DAKOTAS REMAIN DRY. HIGHS AND
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND 30S, RESPECTIVELY, AS THE
PATTERN LIMITS ANY STRONG WARMUP FROM THE COLD AIR MASS COMING IN
DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WITH WINDS DYING DOWN TONIGHT THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG
THE 5000FT CLOUD DECK LINGERS. WENT WITH THE IDEA OF THESE CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. IF A DIFFERENT
TREND APPEARS WILL MODIFY THE TAFS. THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED...WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS COMING BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AT KDVL. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
KGFK/KFAR AREAS AFTER THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...SO WILL ADD
THE HIGHER WINDS AT THESE TWO TAFS IN THE 06Z SET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GODON





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KBIS 020221
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
921 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IS ON TRACK...AND
BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC. THE 00 UTC NAM
CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE 12 AND 18 UTC DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS OF
FOCUSING ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY A DUSTING AT BEST ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE 12 UTC AND 18 UTC
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS FOR THE HEAVY SNOW BAND TO REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ACROSS LAKE WINNIPEG. CERTAINLY
COULD SEE A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL
AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW IS LESS THAN EARLIER TODAY. WILL ALLOW THE SPS TO EXPIRE
AT 00 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON THURSDAY.

CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST...AND SHOULD DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE BY EARLY EVENING. IT
SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT AS WE DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO ALBERTA
WILL INDUCE A COLD FRONT IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
DROP SOUTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 12 UTC THURSDAY.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH 2D FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE THUNDER CHANCES DO NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE DOES REMAIN SOME WEAK ELEVATED
CAPE SO WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR NOW. BY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON CRITICAL 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
0 DEGREES C. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD STILL BE
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A CLIPPER WILL IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.
THEREFORE...AS THE CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ENTERS
NORTH DAKOTA...INITIAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID. AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER AND DIURNAL HEATING GIVES WAY TO DIURNAL
COOLING...A TRANSITION TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST MODELS (12UTC
ECMWF/GFS/NAM) HAVE -2C TO -4C 850MB TEMPS ADVECTING IN SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA BOARDER. THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE...THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP AMOUNTS. THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS (MAINLY NORTHEAST) WILL SEE THEIR FIRST
SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON. BUT DO TO THE UNCERTAINTY...FELT A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ADEQUATE TO COVER THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THE STRONG WIND. A
STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ALSO OF NOTE...A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
MORNING. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. A FREEZE
WATCH/WARNING MAY BE WARRANTED LATER THIS WEEK IF THE TRENDS
CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

GENERALLY VFR STRATUS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING AND PUSH EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO FORECAST WITH THE
FRONT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 020221
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
921 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IS ON TRACK...AND
BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC. THE 00 UTC NAM
CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE 12 AND 18 UTC DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS OF
FOCUSING ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY A DUSTING AT BEST ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE 12 UTC AND 18 UTC
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS FOR THE HEAVY SNOW BAND TO REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ACROSS LAKE WINNIPEG. CERTAINLY
COULD SEE A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL
AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW IS LESS THAN EARLIER TODAY. WILL ALLOW THE SPS TO EXPIRE
AT 00 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON THURSDAY.

CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST...AND SHOULD DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE BY EARLY EVENING. IT
SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT AS WE DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO ALBERTA
WILL INDUCE A COLD FRONT IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
DROP SOUTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 12 UTC THURSDAY.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH 2D FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE THUNDER CHANCES DO NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE DOES REMAIN SOME WEAK ELEVATED
CAPE SO WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR NOW. BY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON CRITICAL 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
0 DEGREES C. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD STILL BE
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A CLIPPER WILL IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.
THEREFORE...AS THE CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ENTERS
NORTH DAKOTA...INITIAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID. AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER AND DIURNAL HEATING GIVES WAY TO DIURNAL
COOLING...A TRANSITION TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST MODELS (12UTC
ECMWF/GFS/NAM) HAVE -2C TO -4C 850MB TEMPS ADVECTING IN SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA BOARDER. THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE...THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP AMOUNTS. THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS (MAINLY NORTHEAST) WILL SEE THEIR FIRST
SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON. BUT DO TO THE UNCERTAINTY...FELT A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ADEQUATE TO COVER THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THE STRONG WIND. A
STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ALSO OF NOTE...A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
MORNING. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. A FREEZE
WATCH/WARNING MAY BE WARRANTED LATER THIS WEEK IF THE TRENDS
CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

GENERALLY VFR STRATUS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING AND PUSH EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO FORECAST WITH THE
FRONT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KFGF 012330
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WINDS STARTING TO DIE DOWN FINALLY AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN THAT
WAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THU. MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE
CLOUD TRENDS. CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY THICK BACK INTO EASTERN
MT. THERE ARE SOME HOLES HERE AND THERE BUT THE CLOUDS APPEAR TO
BE STRATIFORM. THEREFORE WILL INCREASE CLOUD AMOUNTS SOME WITH THE
IDEA THAT ANY CLEARING OR DECREASE WILL BE LATE NIGHT OR EARLY
THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR LATER THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW BECOMING A POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH.
THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE UPPER WAVE...COLD AIR AND SNOW
ACCUMULATING POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS QUICKER AND WOULD GIVE SOME
SNOW TO THE NORTH BUT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THE ECMWF HAS NOT COME
IN YET TODAY...AND IT WAS THE FIRST TO PORTRAY THIS SNOW
POTENTIAL. THE SREF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM WITH SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTH WITH SLOWER...MORE POTENT AND CLOSED 700MB
LOW. WITH ALL THIS SAID...WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL LATER THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS ALSO BEHIND COLD FRONT. GIVEN IT IS
SO EARLY IN SEASON...MANY DETAILS TO IRON OUT.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PERHAPS AN EARLY SHOWER
IN THE FAR EAST. TEMPS WON/T GET TOO COLD AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THOUGH GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS.

ON THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW DROPS INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MOST...AND THERE WILL BE A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THU AFTERNOON...WITH CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES ALONG AND
WEST OF THE VALLEY THU AFTERNOON.

FOR THU NIGHT...THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES CHALLENGING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM NW TO SE.
850MB TEMPS WILL COOL BELOW 0C IN MOST AREAS BY 12Z FRI...WITH
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE
DVL BASIN AFTER 06Z FRI. STRONG NW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP WITH
50KT TO MIX FROM 925MB BY 12Z FRI ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE DVL BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE THU NIGHT IF SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH
ENOUGH. STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE THIS
TIME OF YEAR...IF SNOW RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH. THIS OCCURRED ON
OCTOBER 4 2012 WHEN THERE WAS SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE NORTHERN
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ON FRIDAY...IT WILL BE VERY WINDY WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...THE NAM DEPICTS A
DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW BAND THAT WOULD BE ALL SNOW ACCORDING TO
SOUNDINGS IN MOST AREAS. GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
WARMER...WILL CONFINE SNOW MENTION TO THE DVL BASIN AND GFK AND
POINTS NORTH. THERE WILL BE NEARLY 50KT TO MIX THOUGH...AND IF
SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH ENOUGH WE MAY NEED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EARLY SEASON STORM
POTENTIAL. TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR SOME AREAS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF STRONGEST CAA.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN
THE EAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD GET COLD AND WE COULD HAVE A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE FOR SURE.

FOR SATURDAY...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL AFTER A FROSTY START.
THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE NORTH AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THIS LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS
ON THE 12Z GFS AS THERE ARE ISSUES WITH TODAYS 12Z ECMWF COMING
IN. SEE PREV DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS KEEPS A
HUDSON BAY AREA/WRN ONTARIO UPPER LOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
DISCUSSION. THIS ALONG WITH A CANADIAN ROCKIES RIDGE KEEPS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IN A NW FLOW PATTERN THROUGH DAY 6 AND
7...WHEN THE PATTERN GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A SERIES OF
WAVES FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP PERIODS OF LIGHT POPS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHILE THE DAKOTAS REMAIN DRY. HIGHS AND
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND 30S, RESPECTIVELY, AS THE
PATTERN LIMITS ANY STRONG WARMUP FROM THE COLD AIR MASS COMING IN
DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WITH WINDS DYING DOWN TONIGHT THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG
THE 5000FT CLOUD DECK LINGERS. WENT WITH THE IDEA OF THESE CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. IF A DIFFERENT
TREND APPEARS WILL MODIFY THE TAFS. THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED...WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS COMING BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AT KDVL. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
KGFK/KFAR AREAS AFTER THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...SO WILL ADD
THE HIGHER WINDS AT THESE TWO TAFS IN THE 06Z SET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KFGF 012330
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WINDS STARTING TO DIE DOWN FINALLY AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN THAT
WAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THU. MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE
CLOUD TRENDS. CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY THICK BACK INTO EASTERN
MT. THERE ARE SOME HOLES HERE AND THERE BUT THE CLOUDS APPEAR TO
BE STRATIFORM. THEREFORE WILL INCREASE CLOUD AMOUNTS SOME WITH THE
IDEA THAT ANY CLEARING OR DECREASE WILL BE LATE NIGHT OR EARLY
THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR LATER THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW BECOMING A POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH.
THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE UPPER WAVE...COLD AIR AND SNOW
ACCUMULATING POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS QUICKER AND WOULD GIVE SOME
SNOW TO THE NORTH BUT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THE ECMWF HAS NOT COME
IN YET TODAY...AND IT WAS THE FIRST TO PORTRAY THIS SNOW
POTENTIAL. THE SREF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM WITH SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTH WITH SLOWER...MORE POTENT AND CLOSED 700MB
LOW. WITH ALL THIS SAID...WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL LATER THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS ALSO BEHIND COLD FRONT. GIVEN IT IS
SO EARLY IN SEASON...MANY DETAILS TO IRON OUT.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PERHAPS AN EARLY SHOWER
IN THE FAR EAST. TEMPS WON/T GET TOO COLD AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THOUGH GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS.

ON THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW DROPS INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MOST...AND THERE WILL BE A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THU AFTERNOON...WITH CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES ALONG AND
WEST OF THE VALLEY THU AFTERNOON.

FOR THU NIGHT...THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES CHALLENGING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM NW TO SE.
850MB TEMPS WILL COOL BELOW 0C IN MOST AREAS BY 12Z FRI...WITH
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE
DVL BASIN AFTER 06Z FRI. STRONG NW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP WITH
50KT TO MIX FROM 925MB BY 12Z FRI ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE DVL BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE THU NIGHT IF SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH
ENOUGH. STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE THIS
TIME OF YEAR...IF SNOW RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH. THIS OCCURRED ON
OCTOBER 4 2012 WHEN THERE WAS SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE NORTHERN
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ON FRIDAY...IT WILL BE VERY WINDY WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...THE NAM DEPICTS A
DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW BAND THAT WOULD BE ALL SNOW ACCORDING TO
SOUNDINGS IN MOST AREAS. GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
WARMER...WILL CONFINE SNOW MENTION TO THE DVL BASIN AND GFK AND
POINTS NORTH. THERE WILL BE NEARLY 50KT TO MIX THOUGH...AND IF
SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH ENOUGH WE MAY NEED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EARLY SEASON STORM
POTENTIAL. TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR SOME AREAS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF STRONGEST CAA.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN
THE EAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD GET COLD AND WE COULD HAVE A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE FOR SURE.

FOR SATURDAY...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL AFTER A FROSTY START.
THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE NORTH AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THIS LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS
ON THE 12Z GFS AS THERE ARE ISSUES WITH TODAYS 12Z ECMWF COMING
IN. SEE PREV DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS KEEPS A
HUDSON BAY AREA/WRN ONTARIO UPPER LOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
DISCUSSION. THIS ALONG WITH A CANADIAN ROCKIES RIDGE KEEPS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IN A NW FLOW PATTERN THROUGH DAY 6 AND
7...WHEN THE PATTERN GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A SERIES OF
WAVES FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP PERIODS OF LIGHT POPS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHILE THE DAKOTAS REMAIN DRY. HIGHS AND
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND 30S, RESPECTIVELY, AS THE
PATTERN LIMITS ANY STRONG WARMUP FROM THE COLD AIR MASS COMING IN
DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WITH WINDS DYING DOWN TONIGHT THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG
THE 5000FT CLOUD DECK LINGERS. WENT WITH THE IDEA OF THESE CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. IF A DIFFERENT
TREND APPEARS WILL MODIFY THE TAFS. THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED...WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS COMING BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AT KDVL. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
KGFK/KFAR AREAS AFTER THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...SO WILL ADD
THE HIGHER WINDS AT THESE TWO TAFS IN THE 06Z SET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KFGF 012330
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WINDS STARTING TO DIE DOWN FINALLY AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN THAT
WAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THU. MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE
CLOUD TRENDS. CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY THICK BACK INTO EASTERN
MT. THERE ARE SOME HOLES HERE AND THERE BUT THE CLOUDS APPEAR TO
BE STRATIFORM. THEREFORE WILL INCREASE CLOUD AMOUNTS SOME WITH THE
IDEA THAT ANY CLEARING OR DECREASE WILL BE LATE NIGHT OR EARLY
THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR LATER THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW BECOMING A POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH.
THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE UPPER WAVE...COLD AIR AND SNOW
ACCUMULATING POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS QUICKER AND WOULD GIVE SOME
SNOW TO THE NORTH BUT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THE ECMWF HAS NOT COME
IN YET TODAY...AND IT WAS THE FIRST TO PORTRAY THIS SNOW
POTENTIAL. THE SREF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM WITH SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTH WITH SLOWER...MORE POTENT AND CLOSED 700MB
LOW. WITH ALL THIS SAID...WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL LATER THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS ALSO BEHIND COLD FRONT. GIVEN IT IS
SO EARLY IN SEASON...MANY DETAILS TO IRON OUT.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PERHAPS AN EARLY SHOWER
IN THE FAR EAST. TEMPS WON/T GET TOO COLD AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THOUGH GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS.

ON THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW DROPS INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MOST...AND THERE WILL BE A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THU AFTERNOON...WITH CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES ALONG AND
WEST OF THE VALLEY THU AFTERNOON.

FOR THU NIGHT...THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES CHALLENGING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM NW TO SE.
850MB TEMPS WILL COOL BELOW 0C IN MOST AREAS BY 12Z FRI...WITH
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE
DVL BASIN AFTER 06Z FRI. STRONG NW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP WITH
50KT TO MIX FROM 925MB BY 12Z FRI ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE DVL BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE THU NIGHT IF SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH
ENOUGH. STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE THIS
TIME OF YEAR...IF SNOW RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH. THIS OCCURRED ON
OCTOBER 4 2012 WHEN THERE WAS SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE NORTHERN
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ON FRIDAY...IT WILL BE VERY WINDY WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...THE NAM DEPICTS A
DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW BAND THAT WOULD BE ALL SNOW ACCORDING TO
SOUNDINGS IN MOST AREAS. GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
WARMER...WILL CONFINE SNOW MENTION TO THE DVL BASIN AND GFK AND
POINTS NORTH. THERE WILL BE NEARLY 50KT TO MIX THOUGH...AND IF
SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH ENOUGH WE MAY NEED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EARLY SEASON STORM
POTENTIAL. TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR SOME AREAS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF STRONGEST CAA.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN
THE EAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD GET COLD AND WE COULD HAVE A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE FOR SURE.

FOR SATURDAY...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL AFTER A FROSTY START.
THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE NORTH AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THIS LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS
ON THE 12Z GFS AS THERE ARE ISSUES WITH TODAYS 12Z ECMWF COMING
IN. SEE PREV DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS KEEPS A
HUDSON BAY AREA/WRN ONTARIO UPPER LOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
DISCUSSION. THIS ALONG WITH A CANADIAN ROCKIES RIDGE KEEPS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IN A NW FLOW PATTERN THROUGH DAY 6 AND
7...WHEN THE PATTERN GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A SERIES OF
WAVES FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP PERIODS OF LIGHT POPS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHILE THE DAKOTAS REMAIN DRY. HIGHS AND
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND 30S, RESPECTIVELY, AS THE
PATTERN LIMITS ANY STRONG WARMUP FROM THE COLD AIR MASS COMING IN
DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WITH WINDS DYING DOWN TONIGHT THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG
THE 5000FT CLOUD DECK LINGERS. WENT WITH THE IDEA OF THESE CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. IF A DIFFERENT
TREND APPEARS WILL MODIFY THE TAFS. THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED...WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS COMING BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AT KDVL. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
KGFK/KFAR AREAS AFTER THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...SO WILL ADD
THE HIGHER WINDS AT THESE TWO TAFS IN THE 06Z SET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KFGF 012330
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WINDS STARTING TO DIE DOWN FINALLY AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN THAT
WAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THU. MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE
CLOUD TRENDS. CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY THICK BACK INTO EASTERN
MT. THERE ARE SOME HOLES HERE AND THERE BUT THE CLOUDS APPEAR TO
BE STRATIFORM. THEREFORE WILL INCREASE CLOUD AMOUNTS SOME WITH THE
IDEA THAT ANY CLEARING OR DECREASE WILL BE LATE NIGHT OR EARLY
THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR LATER THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW BECOMING A POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH.
THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE UPPER WAVE...COLD AIR AND SNOW
ACCUMULATING POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS QUICKER AND WOULD GIVE SOME
SNOW TO THE NORTH BUT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THE ECMWF HAS NOT COME
IN YET TODAY...AND IT WAS THE FIRST TO PORTRAY THIS SNOW
POTENTIAL. THE SREF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM WITH SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTH WITH SLOWER...MORE POTENT AND CLOSED 700MB
LOW. WITH ALL THIS SAID...WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL LATER THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS ALSO BEHIND COLD FRONT. GIVEN IT IS
SO EARLY IN SEASON...MANY DETAILS TO IRON OUT.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PERHAPS AN EARLY SHOWER
IN THE FAR EAST. TEMPS WON/T GET TOO COLD AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THOUGH GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS.

ON THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW DROPS INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MOST...AND THERE WILL BE A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THU AFTERNOON...WITH CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES ALONG AND
WEST OF THE VALLEY THU AFTERNOON.

FOR THU NIGHT...THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES CHALLENGING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM NW TO SE.
850MB TEMPS WILL COOL BELOW 0C IN MOST AREAS BY 12Z FRI...WITH
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE
DVL BASIN AFTER 06Z FRI. STRONG NW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP WITH
50KT TO MIX FROM 925MB BY 12Z FRI ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE DVL BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE THU NIGHT IF SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH
ENOUGH. STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE THIS
TIME OF YEAR...IF SNOW RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH. THIS OCCURRED ON
OCTOBER 4 2012 WHEN THERE WAS SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE NORTHERN
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ON FRIDAY...IT WILL BE VERY WINDY WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...THE NAM DEPICTS A
DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW BAND THAT WOULD BE ALL SNOW ACCORDING TO
SOUNDINGS IN MOST AREAS. GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
WARMER...WILL CONFINE SNOW MENTION TO THE DVL BASIN AND GFK AND
POINTS NORTH. THERE WILL BE NEARLY 50KT TO MIX THOUGH...AND IF
SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH ENOUGH WE MAY NEED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EARLY SEASON STORM
POTENTIAL. TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR SOME AREAS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF STRONGEST CAA.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN
THE EAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD GET COLD AND WE COULD HAVE A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE FOR SURE.

FOR SATURDAY...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL AFTER A FROSTY START.
THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE NORTH AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THIS LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS
ON THE 12Z GFS AS THERE ARE ISSUES WITH TODAYS 12Z ECMWF COMING
IN. SEE PREV DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS KEEPS A
HUDSON BAY AREA/WRN ONTARIO UPPER LOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
DISCUSSION. THIS ALONG WITH A CANADIAN ROCKIES RIDGE KEEPS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IN A NW FLOW PATTERN THROUGH DAY 6 AND
7...WHEN THE PATTERN GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A SERIES OF
WAVES FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP PERIODS OF LIGHT POPS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHILE THE DAKOTAS REMAIN DRY. HIGHS AND
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND 30S, RESPECTIVELY, AS THE
PATTERN LIMITS ANY STRONG WARMUP FROM THE COLD AIR MASS COMING IN
DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WITH WINDS DYING DOWN TONIGHT THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG
THE 5000FT CLOUD DECK LINGERS. WENT WITH THE IDEA OF THESE CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. IF A DIFFERENT
TREND APPEARS WILL MODIFY THE TAFS. THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED...WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS COMING BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AT KDVL. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
KGFK/KFAR AREAS AFTER THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...SO WILL ADD
THE HIGHER WINDS AT THESE TWO TAFS IN THE 06Z SET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KBIS 012301
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
601 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE 12 UTC AND 18 UTC
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS FOR THE HEAVY SNOW BAND TO REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ACROSS LAKE WINNIPEG. CERTAINLY
COULD SEE A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL
AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW IS LESS THAN EARLIER TODAY. WILL ALLOW THE SPS TO EXPIRE
AT 00 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON THURSDAY.

CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST...AND SHOULD DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE BY EARLY EVENING. IT
SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT AS WE DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO ALBERTA
WILL INDUCE A COLD FRONT IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
DROP SOUTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 12 UTC THURSDAY.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH 2D FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE THUNDER CHANCES DO NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE DOES REMAIN SOME WEAK ELEVATED
CAPE SO WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR NOW. BY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON CRITICAL 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
0 DEGREES C. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD STILL BE
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A CLIPPER WILL IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.
THEREFORE...AS THE CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ENTERS
NORTH DAKOTA...INITIAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID. AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER AND DIURNAL HEATING GIVES WAY TO DIURNAL
COOLING...A TRANSITION TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST MODELS (12UTC
ECMWF/GFS/NAM) HAVE -2C TO -4C 850MB TEMPS ADVECTING IN SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA BOARDER. THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE...THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP AMOUNTS. THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS (MAINLY NORTHEAST) WILL SEE THEIR FIRST
SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON. BUT DO TO THE UNCERTAINTY...FELT A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ADEQUATE TO COVER THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THE STRONG WIND. A
STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ALSO OF NOTE...A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
MORNING. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. A FREEZE
WATCH/WARNING MAY BE WARRANTED LATER THIS WEEK IF THE TRENDS
CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

GENERALLY VFR STRATUS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING AND PUSH EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO FORECAST WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 012301
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
601 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE 12 UTC AND 18 UTC
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS FOR THE HEAVY SNOW BAND TO REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ACROSS LAKE WINNIPEG. CERTAINLY
COULD SEE A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL
AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW IS LESS THAN EARLIER TODAY. WILL ALLOW THE SPS TO EXPIRE
AT 00 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON THURSDAY.

CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST...AND SHOULD DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE BY EARLY EVENING. IT
SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT AS WE DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO ALBERTA
WILL INDUCE A COLD FRONT IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
DROP SOUTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 12 UTC THURSDAY.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH 2D FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE THUNDER CHANCES DO NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE DOES REMAIN SOME WEAK ELEVATED
CAPE SO WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR NOW. BY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON CRITICAL 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
0 DEGREES C. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD STILL BE
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A CLIPPER WILL IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.
THEREFORE...AS THE CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ENTERS
NORTH DAKOTA...INITIAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID. AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER AND DIURNAL HEATING GIVES WAY TO DIURNAL
COOLING...A TRANSITION TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST MODELS (12UTC
ECMWF/GFS/NAM) HAVE -2C TO -4C 850MB TEMPS ADVECTING IN SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA BOARDER. THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE...THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP AMOUNTS. THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS (MAINLY NORTHEAST) WILL SEE THEIR FIRST
SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON. BUT DO TO THE UNCERTAINTY...FELT A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ADEQUATE TO COVER THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THE STRONG WIND. A
STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ALSO OF NOTE...A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
MORNING. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. A FREEZE
WATCH/WARNING MAY BE WARRANTED LATER THIS WEEK IF THE TRENDS
CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

GENERALLY VFR STRATUS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING AND PUSH EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO FORECAST WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 012105
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON THURSDAY.

CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST...AND SHOULD DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE BY EARLY EVENING. IT
SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT AS WE DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO ALBERTA
WILL INDUCE A COLD FRONT IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
DROP SOUTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 12 UTC THURSDAY.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH 2D FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE THUNDER CHANCES DO NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE DOES REMAIN SOME WEAK ELEVATED
CAPE SO WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR NOW. BY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON CRITICAL 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
0 DEGREES C. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD STILL BE
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A CLIPPER WILL IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.
THEREFORE...AS THE CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ENTERS
NORTH DAKOTA...INITIAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID. AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER AND DIURNAL HEATING GIVES WAY TO DIURNAL
COOLING...A TRANSITION TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST MODELS (12UTC
ECMWF/GFS/NAM) HAVE -2C TO -4C 850MB TEMPS ADVECTING IN SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA BOARDER. THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE...THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP AMOUNTS. THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS (MAINLY NORTHEAST) WILL SEE THEIR FIRST
SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON. BUT DO TO THE UNCERTAINTY...FELT A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ADEQUATE TO COVER THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THE STRONG WIND. A
STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ALSO OF NOTE...A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
MORNING. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. A FREEZE
WATCH/WARNING MAY BE WARRANTED LATER THIS WEEK IF THE TRENDS
CONTINUE.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVED TO VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS SCATTERING FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT
KISN/KDIK AROUND 03Z. WEST WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS ALL TAF SITES
TODAY...DECREASING AFTER 00Z.


&&


.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH











000
FXUS63 KBIS 012105
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON THURSDAY.

CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST...AND SHOULD DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE BY EARLY EVENING. IT
SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT AS WE DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO ALBERTA
WILL INDUCE A COLD FRONT IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
DROP SOUTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 12 UTC THURSDAY.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH 2D FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE THUNDER CHANCES DO NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE DOES REMAIN SOME WEAK ELEVATED
CAPE SO WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR NOW. BY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON CRITICAL 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
0 DEGREES C. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD STILL BE
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A CLIPPER WILL IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.
THEREFORE...AS THE CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ENTERS
NORTH DAKOTA...INITIAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID. AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER AND DIURNAL HEATING GIVES WAY TO DIURNAL
COOLING...A TRANSITION TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST MODELS (12UTC
ECMWF/GFS/NAM) HAVE -2C TO -4C 850MB TEMPS ADVECTING IN SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA BOARDER. THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE...THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP AMOUNTS. THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS (MAINLY NORTHEAST) WILL SEE THEIR FIRST
SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON. BUT DO TO THE UNCERTAINTY...FELT A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ADEQUATE TO COVER THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THE STRONG WIND. A
STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ALSO OF NOTE...A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
MORNING. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. A FREEZE
WATCH/WARNING MAY BE WARRANTED LATER THIS WEEK IF THE TRENDS
CONTINUE.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVED TO VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS SCATTERING FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT
KISN/KDIK AROUND 03Z. WEST WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS ALL TAF SITES
TODAY...DECREASING AFTER 00Z.


&&


.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH











000
FXUS63 KBIS 012105
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON THURSDAY.

CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST...AND SHOULD DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE BY EARLY EVENING. IT
SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT AS WE DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO ALBERTA
WILL INDUCE A COLD FRONT IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
DROP SOUTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 12 UTC THURSDAY.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH 2D FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE THUNDER CHANCES DO NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE DOES REMAIN SOME WEAK ELEVATED
CAPE SO WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR NOW. BY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON CRITICAL 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
0 DEGREES C. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD STILL BE
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A CLIPPER WILL IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.
THEREFORE...AS THE CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ENTERS
NORTH DAKOTA...INITIAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID. AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER AND DIURNAL HEATING GIVES WAY TO DIURNAL
COOLING...A TRANSITION TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST MODELS (12UTC
ECMWF/GFS/NAM) HAVE -2C TO -4C 850MB TEMPS ADVECTING IN SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA BOARDER. THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE...THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP AMOUNTS. THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS (MAINLY NORTHEAST) WILL SEE THEIR FIRST
SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON. BUT DO TO THE UNCERTAINTY...FELT A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ADEQUATE TO COVER THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THE STRONG WIND. A
STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ALSO OF NOTE...A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
MORNING. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. A FREEZE
WATCH/WARNING MAY BE WARRANTED LATER THIS WEEK IF THE TRENDS
CONTINUE.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVED TO VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS SCATTERING FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT
KISN/KDIK AROUND 03Z. WEST WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS ALL TAF SITES
TODAY...DECREASING AFTER 00Z.


&&


.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH











000
FXUS63 KBIS 012105
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON THURSDAY.

CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST...AND SHOULD DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE BY EARLY EVENING. IT
SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT AS WE DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO ALBERTA
WILL INDUCE A COLD FRONT IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
DROP SOUTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 12 UTC THURSDAY.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH 2D FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE THUNDER CHANCES DO NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE DOES REMAIN SOME WEAK ELEVATED
CAPE SO WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR NOW. BY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON CRITICAL 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
0 DEGREES C. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD STILL BE
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A CLIPPER WILL IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.
THEREFORE...AS THE CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ENTERS
NORTH DAKOTA...INITIAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID. AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER AND DIURNAL HEATING GIVES WAY TO DIURNAL
COOLING...A TRANSITION TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST MODELS (12UTC
ECMWF/GFS/NAM) HAVE -2C TO -4C 850MB TEMPS ADVECTING IN SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA BOARDER. THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE...THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP AMOUNTS. THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS (MAINLY NORTHEAST) WILL SEE THEIR FIRST
SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON. BUT DO TO THE UNCERTAINTY...FELT A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ADEQUATE TO COVER THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THE STRONG WIND. A
STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ALSO OF NOTE...A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
MORNING. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. A FREEZE
WATCH/WARNING MAY BE WARRANTED LATER THIS WEEK IF THE TRENDS
CONTINUE.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVED TO VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS SCATTERING FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT
KISN/KDIK AROUND 03Z. WEST WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS ALL TAF SITES
TODAY...DECREASING AFTER 00Z.


&&


.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH











000
FXUS63 KFGF 012016
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
316 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR LATER THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW BECOMING A POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH.
THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE UPPER WAVE...COLD AIR AND SNOW
ACCUMULATING POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS QUICKER AND WOULD GIVE SOME
SNOW TO THE NORTH BUT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THE ECMWF HAS NOT COME
IN YET TODAY...AND IT WAS THE FIRST TO PORTRAY THIS SNOW
POTENTIAL. THE SREF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM WITH SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTH WITH SLOWER...MORE POTENT AND CLOSED 700MB
LOW. WITH ALL THIS SAID...WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL LATER THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS ALSO BEHIND COLD FRONT. GIVEN IT IS
SO EARLY IN SEASON...MANY DETAILS TO IRON OUT.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PERHAPS AN EARLY SHOWER
IN THE FAR EAST. TEMPS WON/T GET TOO COLD AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THOUGH GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS.

ON THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW DROPS INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MOST...AND THERE WILL BE A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THU AFTERNOON...WITH CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES ALONG AND
WEST OF THE VALLEY THU AFTERNOON.

FOR THU NIGHT...THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES CHALLENGING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM NW TO SE.
850MB TEMPS WILL COOL BELOW 0C IN MOST AREAS BY 12Z FRI...WITH
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE
DVL BASIN AFTER 06Z FRI. STRONG NW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP WITH
50KT TO MIX FROM 925MB BY 12Z FRI ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE DVL BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE THU NIGHT IF SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH
ENOUGH. STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE THIS
TIME OF YEAR...IF SNOW RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH. THIS OCCURRED ON
OCTOBER 4 2012 WHEN THERE WAS SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE NORTHERN
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ON FRIDAY...IT WILL BE VERY WINDY WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...THE NAM DEPICTS A
DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW BAND THAT WOULD BE ALL SNOW ACCORDING TO
SOUNDINGS IN MOST AREAS. GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
WARMER...WILL CONFINE SNOW MENTION TO THE DVL BASIN AND GFK AND
POINTS NORTH. THERE WILL BE NEARLY 50KT TO MIX THOUGH...AND IF
SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH ENOUGH WE MAY NEED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EARLY SEASON STORM
POTENTIAL. TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR SOME AREAS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF STRONGEST CAA.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN
THE EAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD GET COLD AND WE COULD HAVE A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE FOR SURE.

FOR SATURDAY...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL AFTER A FROSTY START.
THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE NORTH AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THIS LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS
ON THE 12Z GFS AS THERE ARE ISSUES WITH TODAYS 12Z ECMWF COMING
IN. SEE PREV DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS KEEPS A
HUDSON BAY AREA/WRN ONTARIO UPPER LOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
DISCUSSION. THIS ALONG WITH A CANADIAN ROCKIES RIDGE KEEPS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IN A NW FLOW PATTERN THROUGH DAY 6 AND
7...WHEN THE PATTERN GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A SERIES OF
WAVES FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP PERIODS OF LIGHT POPS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHILE THE DAKOTAS REMAIN DRY. HIGHS AND
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND 30S, RESPECTIVELY, AS THE
PATTERN LIMITS ANY STRONG WARMUP FROM THE COLD AIR MASS COMING IN
DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FLUCTUATE THIS AFTN...WITH CIGS RISING INTO VFR
CIGS FOR BRIEF PDS BEFORE SFC LOW OVER LAKE MB PULLS NORTH AND
SHOULD TAKE MOST CLOUDS WITH IT. SOME CLEARING WILL BEGIN IN THE
WEST BY LATE EVENING AND WORK ITS WAY INTO THE VALLEY RATHER
QUICKLY...WORKING THE CLEAR SKIES INTO THE VALLEY AND NW MN BY
MIDNIGHT. BJI WILL CONTINUE AN IFR TREND THROUGH MID AFTN THEN BEGIN
TO BREAK UP ALTHOUGH A BIT LATER THAN SITES TO THE WEST. ALSO EXPECT
BRIEF PDS OF GUSTY SW WINDS...WITH S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT
CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE RRV. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFT ABT 02Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 012016
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
316 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR LATER THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW BECOMING A POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH.
THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE UPPER WAVE...COLD AIR AND SNOW
ACCUMULATING POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS QUICKER AND WOULD GIVE SOME
SNOW TO THE NORTH BUT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THE ECMWF HAS NOT COME
IN YET TODAY...AND IT WAS THE FIRST TO PORTRAY THIS SNOW
POTENTIAL. THE SREF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM WITH SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTH WITH SLOWER...MORE POTENT AND CLOSED 700MB
LOW. WITH ALL THIS SAID...WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL LATER THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS ALSO BEHIND COLD FRONT. GIVEN IT IS
SO EARLY IN SEASON...MANY DETAILS TO IRON OUT.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PERHAPS AN EARLY SHOWER
IN THE FAR EAST. TEMPS WON/T GET TOO COLD AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THOUGH GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS.

ON THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW DROPS INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MOST...AND THERE WILL BE A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THU AFTERNOON...WITH CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES ALONG AND
WEST OF THE VALLEY THU AFTERNOON.

FOR THU NIGHT...THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES CHALLENGING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM NW TO SE.
850MB TEMPS WILL COOL BELOW 0C IN MOST AREAS BY 12Z FRI...WITH
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE
DVL BASIN AFTER 06Z FRI. STRONG NW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP WITH
50KT TO MIX FROM 925MB BY 12Z FRI ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE DVL BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE THU NIGHT IF SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH
ENOUGH. STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE THIS
TIME OF YEAR...IF SNOW RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH. THIS OCCURRED ON
OCTOBER 4 2012 WHEN THERE WAS SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE NORTHERN
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ON FRIDAY...IT WILL BE VERY WINDY WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...THE NAM DEPICTS A
DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW BAND THAT WOULD BE ALL SNOW ACCORDING TO
SOUNDINGS IN MOST AREAS. GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
WARMER...WILL CONFINE SNOW MENTION TO THE DVL BASIN AND GFK AND
POINTS NORTH. THERE WILL BE NEARLY 50KT TO MIX THOUGH...AND IF
SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH ENOUGH WE MAY NEED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EARLY SEASON STORM
POTENTIAL. TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR SOME AREAS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF STRONGEST CAA.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN
THE EAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD GET COLD AND WE COULD HAVE A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE FOR SURE.

FOR SATURDAY...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL AFTER A FROSTY START.
THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE NORTH AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THIS LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS
ON THE 12Z GFS AS THERE ARE ISSUES WITH TODAYS 12Z ECMWF COMING
IN. SEE PREV DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS KEEPS A
HUDSON BAY AREA/WRN ONTARIO UPPER LOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
DISCUSSION. THIS ALONG WITH A CANADIAN ROCKIES RIDGE KEEPS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IN A NW FLOW PATTERN THROUGH DAY 6 AND
7...WHEN THE PATTERN GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A SERIES OF
WAVES FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP PERIODS OF LIGHT POPS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHILE THE DAKOTAS REMAIN DRY. HIGHS AND
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND 30S, RESPECTIVELY, AS THE
PATTERN LIMITS ANY STRONG WARMUP FROM THE COLD AIR MASS COMING IN
DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FLUCTUATE THIS AFTN...WITH CIGS RISING INTO VFR
CIGS FOR BRIEF PDS BEFORE SFC LOW OVER LAKE MB PULLS NORTH AND
SHOULD TAKE MOST CLOUDS WITH IT. SOME CLEARING WILL BEGIN IN THE
WEST BY LATE EVENING AND WORK ITS WAY INTO THE VALLEY RATHER
QUICKLY...WORKING THE CLEAR SKIES INTO THE VALLEY AND NW MN BY
MIDNIGHT. BJI WILL CONTINUE AN IFR TREND THROUGH MID AFTN THEN BEGIN
TO BREAK UP ALTHOUGH A BIT LATER THAN SITES TO THE WEST. ALSO EXPECT
BRIEF PDS OF GUSTY SW WINDS...WITH S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT
CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE RRV. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFT ABT 02Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 011804
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
104 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM HAS SHIFTED TO SNOW ON THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12 UTC NAM CAME IN WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY
DEEPER LOW...AND A CORRESPONDING DEFORMATION BAND OF HEAVY SNOW
STRETCHED ACROSS BOTTINEAU AND ROLETTE COUNTIES. WHILE THE 00 UTC
ECMWF IS A BIT LIGHTER WITH AMOUNTS...IT IS NOT AS LIGHT AS THE 12
UTC GFS. GIVEN THAT SPECTRUM OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO HEAVY
SNOW...WE WILL DRAFT A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MENTIONING
UNCERTAINTY...LIGHT SNOW...AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WANE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. MAY BE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS WEST. NO CHANGES OTHER
THAN UPDATING SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AT 630 AM CDT UPPER LOW IS LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE STATE. MOST OF
THE RADAR RETURNS HAVE DIMINISHED. TRIMMED BACK THE POPS A BIT
FOR TODAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE REGION FORM MUCH
OF THE MORNING BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RAIN CHANCES
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TODAY.

CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR RUGBY. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUED OVER BOTTINEAU COUNTY...WITH MOST OF THE AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS NORTH OF THE LOW IN SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY
WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK...AND REACH
NORTHERN MANITOBA BY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION
OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...IT IS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH ENCOMPASSES THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
US AND CANADA. ONE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES WITHIN
THE LARGE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE CLOUD SHIELD SURROUNDING THE EXITING STACKED SYSTEM IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS (THE H925-H850 RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD) TO
REMAIN OVER NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. PLENTY OF STRATUS/CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON (WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS).

EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE EXITING LOW TO REACH THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE TODAY. THUS A BLUSTERY DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S.

DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S
WEST TO THE 40S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NOW APPEARS POISED TO GIVE NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUT FIRST...IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND POTENT COLD
FRONT...WARM AIR WILL GIVE RISE TO SOME MODEST CAPE THAT SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE H300 140KT JET ON BACK SIDE OF H500
TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN EXITING
JET ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN EASTERN ND/MN. THE GFS QPF
FITS THE MODEL FRONTOGENESIS PRETTY WELL AT H850 THAT THE NAM JUST
DOES NOT MATCH UP WITH AS STRONG...HENCE THE NAMS MUCH WEAKER
FIELD OF QPF. LATEST LOOK AT ECMWF COMPARES SOMEWHAT FAVORABLY
WITH THE GFS SO WILL TREND TOWARD A LARGER PRECIP AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD
WHERE THE MAX VERTICAL VELOCITY OVERLAYS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
BETWEEN -10 TO -20C. BELIEVE THE SNOW WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD
BETWEEN 1 AM AND 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. QPF AND SNOW RATIOS YIELD
ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW GENERALLY WEST OF MINOT IN BURK/MOUNTRAIL
COUNTIES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EAST AND WEST OF THIS. WIND WILL ALSO
BE AN ISSUE OF WHICH THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST. THE MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OVER MINOT HAS 57 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT
2500 AGL TO 40 KTS AT THE BOTTOM AT 7 PM THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WOULD CERTAINLY EVENTUALLY SUPPORT A WIND ADVISORY WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF HIGH WIND CRITERIA (ASSUMING THE GFS VERIFIES AND IT IS
THE STRONGEST FOR WINDS.) TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S SHOULD
LIMIT BLOWING SNOW BUT IF IT GETS COLDER THERE WILL BE MORE OF A
BLOWING SNOW PROBLEM.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY END FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND WILL BE
PRETTY MUCH DRY WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A RATHER
LARGE H500 UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. THIS TREND
CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY TO
VFR BY 18Z-20Z. VFR CIGS SCATTERING FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT
KISN/KDIK AROUND 00Z. WEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS ALL TAF SITES
TODAY...DECREASING AFTER 00Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 011804
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
104 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM HAS SHIFTED TO SNOW ON THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12 UTC NAM CAME IN WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY
DEEPER LOW...AND A CORRESPONDING DEFORMATION BAND OF HEAVY SNOW
STRETCHED ACROSS BOTTINEAU AND ROLETTE COUNTIES. WHILE THE 00 UTC
ECMWF IS A BIT LIGHTER WITH AMOUNTS...IT IS NOT AS LIGHT AS THE 12
UTC GFS. GIVEN THAT SPECTRUM OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO HEAVY
SNOW...WE WILL DRAFT A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MENTIONING
UNCERTAINTY...LIGHT SNOW...AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WANE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. MAY BE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS WEST. NO CHANGES OTHER
THAN UPDATING SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AT 630 AM CDT UPPER LOW IS LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE STATE. MOST OF
THE RADAR RETURNS HAVE DIMINISHED. TRIMMED BACK THE POPS A BIT
FOR TODAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE REGION FORM MUCH
OF THE MORNING BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RAIN CHANCES
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TODAY.

CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR RUGBY. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUED OVER BOTTINEAU COUNTY...WITH MOST OF THE AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS NORTH OF THE LOW IN SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY
WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK...AND REACH
NORTHERN MANITOBA BY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION
OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...IT IS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH ENCOMPASSES THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
US AND CANADA. ONE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES WITHIN
THE LARGE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE CLOUD SHIELD SURROUNDING THE EXITING STACKED SYSTEM IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS (THE H925-H850 RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD) TO
REMAIN OVER NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. PLENTY OF STRATUS/CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON (WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS).

EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE EXITING LOW TO REACH THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE TODAY. THUS A BLUSTERY DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S.

DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S
WEST TO THE 40S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NOW APPEARS POISED TO GIVE NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUT FIRST...IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND POTENT COLD
FRONT...WARM AIR WILL GIVE RISE TO SOME MODEST CAPE THAT SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE H300 140KT JET ON BACK SIDE OF H500
TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN EXITING
JET ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN EASTERN ND/MN. THE GFS QPF
FITS THE MODEL FRONTOGENESIS PRETTY WELL AT H850 THAT THE NAM JUST
DOES NOT MATCH UP WITH AS STRONG...HENCE THE NAMS MUCH WEAKER
FIELD OF QPF. LATEST LOOK AT ECMWF COMPARES SOMEWHAT FAVORABLY
WITH THE GFS SO WILL TREND TOWARD A LARGER PRECIP AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD
WHERE THE MAX VERTICAL VELOCITY OVERLAYS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
BETWEEN -10 TO -20C. BELIEVE THE SNOW WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD
BETWEEN 1 AM AND 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. QPF AND SNOW RATIOS YIELD
ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW GENERALLY WEST OF MINOT IN BURK/MOUNTRAIL
COUNTIES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EAST AND WEST OF THIS. WIND WILL ALSO
BE AN ISSUE OF WHICH THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST. THE MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OVER MINOT HAS 57 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT
2500 AGL TO 40 KTS AT THE BOTTOM AT 7 PM THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WOULD CERTAINLY EVENTUALLY SUPPORT A WIND ADVISORY WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF HIGH WIND CRITERIA (ASSUMING THE GFS VERIFIES AND IT IS
THE STRONGEST FOR WINDS.) TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S SHOULD
LIMIT BLOWING SNOW BUT IF IT GETS COLDER THERE WILL BE MORE OF A
BLOWING SNOW PROBLEM.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY END FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND WILL BE
PRETTY MUCH DRY WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A RATHER
LARGE H500 UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. THIS TREND
CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY TO
VFR BY 18Z-20Z. VFR CIGS SCATTERING FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT
KISN/KDIK AROUND 00Z. WEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS ALL TAF SITES
TODAY...DECREASING AFTER 00Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 011804
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
104 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM HAS SHIFTED TO SNOW ON THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12 UTC NAM CAME IN WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY
DEEPER LOW...AND A CORRESPONDING DEFORMATION BAND OF HEAVY SNOW
STRETCHED ACROSS BOTTINEAU AND ROLETTE COUNTIES. WHILE THE 00 UTC
ECMWF IS A BIT LIGHTER WITH AMOUNTS...IT IS NOT AS LIGHT AS THE 12
UTC GFS. GIVEN THAT SPECTRUM OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO HEAVY
SNOW...WE WILL DRAFT A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MENTIONING
UNCERTAINTY...LIGHT SNOW...AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WANE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. MAY BE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS WEST. NO CHANGES OTHER
THAN UPDATING SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AT 630 AM CDT UPPER LOW IS LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE STATE. MOST OF
THE RADAR RETURNS HAVE DIMINISHED. TRIMMED BACK THE POPS A BIT
FOR TODAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE REGION FORM MUCH
OF THE MORNING BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RAIN CHANCES
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TODAY.

CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR RUGBY. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUED OVER BOTTINEAU COUNTY...WITH MOST OF THE AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS NORTH OF THE LOW IN SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY
WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK...AND REACH
NORTHERN MANITOBA BY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION
OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...IT IS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH ENCOMPASSES THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
US AND CANADA. ONE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES WITHIN
THE LARGE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE CLOUD SHIELD SURROUNDING THE EXITING STACKED SYSTEM IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS (THE H925-H850 RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD) TO
REMAIN OVER NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. PLENTY OF STRATUS/CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON (WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS).

EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE EXITING LOW TO REACH THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE TODAY. THUS A BLUSTERY DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S.

DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S
WEST TO THE 40S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NOW APPEARS POISED TO GIVE NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUT FIRST...IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND POTENT COLD
FRONT...WARM AIR WILL GIVE RISE TO SOME MODEST CAPE THAT SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE H300 140KT JET ON BACK SIDE OF H500
TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN EXITING
JET ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN EASTERN ND/MN. THE GFS QPF
FITS THE MODEL FRONTOGENESIS PRETTY WELL AT H850 THAT THE NAM JUST
DOES NOT MATCH UP WITH AS STRONG...HENCE THE NAMS MUCH WEAKER
FIELD OF QPF. LATEST LOOK AT ECMWF COMPARES SOMEWHAT FAVORABLY
WITH THE GFS SO WILL TREND TOWARD A LARGER PRECIP AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD
WHERE THE MAX VERTICAL VELOCITY OVERLAYS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
BETWEEN -10 TO -20C. BELIEVE THE SNOW WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD
BETWEEN 1 AM AND 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. QPF AND SNOW RATIOS YIELD
ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW GENERALLY WEST OF MINOT IN BURK/MOUNTRAIL
COUNTIES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EAST AND WEST OF THIS. WIND WILL ALSO
BE AN ISSUE OF WHICH THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST. THE MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OVER MINOT HAS 57 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT
2500 AGL TO 40 KTS AT THE BOTTOM AT 7 PM THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WOULD CERTAINLY EVENTUALLY SUPPORT A WIND ADVISORY WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF HIGH WIND CRITERIA (ASSUMING THE GFS VERIFIES AND IT IS
THE STRONGEST FOR WINDS.) TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S SHOULD
LIMIT BLOWING SNOW BUT IF IT GETS COLDER THERE WILL BE MORE OF A
BLOWING SNOW PROBLEM.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY END FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND WILL BE
PRETTY MUCH DRY WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A RATHER
LARGE H500 UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. THIS TREND
CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY TO
VFR BY 18Z-20Z. VFR CIGS SCATTERING FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT
KISN/KDIK AROUND 00Z. WEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS ALL TAF SITES
TODAY...DECREASING AFTER 00Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 011804
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
104 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM HAS SHIFTED TO SNOW ON THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12 UTC NAM CAME IN WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY
DEEPER LOW...AND A CORRESPONDING DEFORMATION BAND OF HEAVY SNOW
STRETCHED ACROSS BOTTINEAU AND ROLETTE COUNTIES. WHILE THE 00 UTC
ECMWF IS A BIT LIGHTER WITH AMOUNTS...IT IS NOT AS LIGHT AS THE 12
UTC GFS. GIVEN THAT SPECTRUM OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO HEAVY
SNOW...WE WILL DRAFT A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MENTIONING
UNCERTAINTY...LIGHT SNOW...AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WANE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. MAY BE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS WEST. NO CHANGES OTHER
THAN UPDATING SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AT 630 AM CDT UPPER LOW IS LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE STATE. MOST OF
THE RADAR RETURNS HAVE DIMINISHED. TRIMMED BACK THE POPS A BIT
FOR TODAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE REGION FORM MUCH
OF THE MORNING BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RAIN CHANCES
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TODAY.

CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR RUGBY. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUED OVER BOTTINEAU COUNTY...WITH MOST OF THE AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS NORTH OF THE LOW IN SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY
WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK...AND REACH
NORTHERN MANITOBA BY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION
OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...IT IS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH ENCOMPASSES THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
US AND CANADA. ONE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES WITHIN
THE LARGE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE CLOUD SHIELD SURROUNDING THE EXITING STACKED SYSTEM IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS (THE H925-H850 RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD) TO
REMAIN OVER NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. PLENTY OF STRATUS/CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON (WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS).

EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE EXITING LOW TO REACH THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE TODAY. THUS A BLUSTERY DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S.

DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S
WEST TO THE 40S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NOW APPEARS POISED TO GIVE NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUT FIRST...IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND POTENT COLD
FRONT...WARM AIR WILL GIVE RISE TO SOME MODEST CAPE THAT SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE H300 140KT JET ON BACK SIDE OF H500
TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN EXITING
JET ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN EASTERN ND/MN. THE GFS QPF
FITS THE MODEL FRONTOGENESIS PRETTY WELL AT H850 THAT THE NAM JUST
DOES NOT MATCH UP WITH AS STRONG...HENCE THE NAMS MUCH WEAKER
FIELD OF QPF. LATEST LOOK AT ECMWF COMPARES SOMEWHAT FAVORABLY
WITH THE GFS SO WILL TREND TOWARD A LARGER PRECIP AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD
WHERE THE MAX VERTICAL VELOCITY OVERLAYS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
BETWEEN -10 TO -20C. BELIEVE THE SNOW WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD
BETWEEN 1 AM AND 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. QPF AND SNOW RATIOS YIELD
ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW GENERALLY WEST OF MINOT IN BURK/MOUNTRAIL
COUNTIES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EAST AND WEST OF THIS. WIND WILL ALSO
BE AN ISSUE OF WHICH THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST. THE MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OVER MINOT HAS 57 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT
2500 AGL TO 40 KTS AT THE BOTTOM AT 7 PM THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WOULD CERTAINLY EVENTUALLY SUPPORT A WIND ADVISORY WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF HIGH WIND CRITERIA (ASSUMING THE GFS VERIFIES AND IT IS
THE STRONGEST FOR WINDS.) TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S SHOULD
LIMIT BLOWING SNOW BUT IF IT GETS COLDER THERE WILL BE MORE OF A
BLOWING SNOW PROBLEM.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY END FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND WILL BE
PRETTY MUCH DRY WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A RATHER
LARGE H500 UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. THIS TREND
CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY TO
VFR BY 18Z-20Z. VFR CIGS SCATTERING FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT
KISN/KDIK AROUND 00Z. WEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS ALL TAF SITES
TODAY...DECREASING AFTER 00Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KFGF 011801
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
101 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SFC-UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A SFC BOUNDARY (WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST) WILL
INTERACT WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY EAST OF THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. MUCH OF
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL BRING SHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDER) TO
THE EXTREME WESTERN FA BY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER
AND STRONGER SOLUTION. A SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE GREAT LAKES WAVE WILL ACT TO
BLOCK THE CANADIAN WAVE...THUS SLOWING IT DOWN. THE 00Z ECMWF AND
00Z GFS HAVE THE STRONGEST SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE NAM/GEM/SREF
SHOW A SIMILAR EVOLUTION...JUST NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB LOW. THE STRONGER SOLUTION
WOULD BRING IN COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR...AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
SNOW. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER
END OF QPF AND WIND SPEEDS...AND ONLY INTRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. WITH THAT SAID...IF THE ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS DO VERIFY WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME SORT OF WINTER
HEADLINES...SO THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
IT DOES LOOK WINDY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...AND INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS.

MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...BUT MOST
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST OVER HUDSON BAY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD THEN DEAMPLIFIES THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD. FAST
FLOW ALOFT EXPECT TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD. SO CONFIDENCE WILL BE LOW IN THIS FLOW PATTERN.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND
REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BLEND GFS AND ECMWF WITH
PREFERENCE TOWARD ECMWF.  WILL KEEP YESTERDAYS POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY LOWERED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES FOR SAT,
SUN, AND MON. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FLUCTUATE THIS AFTN...WITH CIGS RISING INTO VFR
CIGS FOR BRIEF PDS BEFORE SFC LOW OVER LAKE MB PULLS NORTH AND
SHOULD TAKE MOST CLOUDS WITH IT. SOME CLEARING WILL BEGIN IN THE
WEST BY LATE EVENING AND WORK ITS WAY INTO THE VALLEY RATHER
QUICKLY...WORKING THE CLEAR SKIES INTO THE VALLEY AND NW MN BY
MIDNIGHT. BJI WILL CONTINUE AN IFR TREND THROUGH MID AFTN THEN BEGIN
TO BREAK UP ALTHOUGH A BIT LATER THAN SITES TO THE WEST. ALSO EXPECT
BRIEF PDS OF GUSTY SW WINDS...WITH S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT
CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE RRV. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFT ABT 02Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 011801
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
101 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SFC-UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A SFC BOUNDARY (WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST) WILL
INTERACT WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY EAST OF THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. MUCH OF
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL BRING SHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDER) TO
THE EXTREME WESTERN FA BY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER
AND STRONGER SOLUTION. A SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE GREAT LAKES WAVE WILL ACT TO
BLOCK THE CANADIAN WAVE...THUS SLOWING IT DOWN. THE 00Z ECMWF AND
00Z GFS HAVE THE STRONGEST SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE NAM/GEM/SREF
SHOW A SIMILAR EVOLUTION...JUST NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB LOW. THE STRONGER SOLUTION
WOULD BRING IN COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR...AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
SNOW. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER
END OF QPF AND WIND SPEEDS...AND ONLY INTRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. WITH THAT SAID...IF THE ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS DO VERIFY WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME SORT OF WINTER
HEADLINES...SO THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
IT DOES LOOK WINDY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...AND INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS.

MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...BUT MOST
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST OVER HUDSON BAY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD THEN DEAMPLIFIES THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD. FAST
FLOW ALOFT EXPECT TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD. SO CONFIDENCE WILL BE LOW IN THIS FLOW PATTERN.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND
REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BLEND GFS AND ECMWF WITH
PREFERENCE TOWARD ECMWF.  WILL KEEP YESTERDAYS POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY LOWERED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES FOR SAT,
SUN, AND MON. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FLUCTUATE THIS AFTN...WITH CIGS RISING INTO VFR
CIGS FOR BRIEF PDS BEFORE SFC LOW OVER LAKE MB PULLS NORTH AND
SHOULD TAKE MOST CLOUDS WITH IT. SOME CLEARING WILL BEGIN IN THE
WEST BY LATE EVENING AND WORK ITS WAY INTO THE VALLEY RATHER
QUICKLY...WORKING THE CLEAR SKIES INTO THE VALLEY AND NW MN BY
MIDNIGHT. BJI WILL CONTINUE AN IFR TREND THROUGH MID AFTN THEN BEGIN
TO BREAK UP ALTHOUGH A BIT LATER THAN SITES TO THE WEST. ALSO EXPECT
BRIEF PDS OF GUSTY SW WINDS...WITH S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT
CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE RRV. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFT ABT 02Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 011507
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1007 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WE WILL INCREASE WINDS A BIT ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...WITH
ABOUT 30KT TO MIX FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER IN THE EAST INTO NW
MN...AND WILL EXPAND POPS A BIT INTO THE ROX AREA. OTHERWISE...NO
MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SFC-UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A SFC BOUNDARY (WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST) WILL
INTERACT WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY EAST OF THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. MUCH OF
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL BRING SHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDER) TO
THE EXTREME WESTERN FA BY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER
AND STRONGER SOLUTION. A SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE GREAT LAKES WAVE WILL ACT TO
BLOCK THE CANADIAN WAVE...THUS SLOWING IT DOWN. THE 00Z ECMWF AND
00Z GFS HAVE THE STRONGEST SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE NAM/GEM/SREF
SHOW A SIMILAR EVOLUTION...JUST NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB LOW. THE STRONGER SOLUTION
WOULD BRING IN COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR...AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
SNOW. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER
END OF QPF AND WIND SPEEDS...AND ONLY INTRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. WITH THAT SAID...IF THE ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS DO VERIFY WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME SORT OF WINTER
HEADLINES...SO THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
IT DOES LOOK WINDY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...AND INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS.

MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...BUT MOST
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST OVER HUDSON BAY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD THEN DEAMPLIFIES THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD. FAST
FLOW ALOFT EXPECT TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD. SO CONFIDENCE WILL BE LOW IN THIS FLOW PATTERN.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND
REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BLEND GFS AND ECMWF WITH
PREFERENCE TOWARD ECMWF.  WILL KEEP YESTERDAYS POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY LOWERED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES FOR SAT,
SUN, AND MON. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTH. FOR THOSE
SITES STILL WITH MVFR CIGS...THEY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE VFR CIGS AT SOME POINT
TODAY. BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 011507
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1007 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WE WILL INCREASE WINDS A BIT ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...WITH
ABOUT 30KT TO MIX FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER IN THE EAST INTO NW
MN...AND WILL EXPAND POPS A BIT INTO THE ROX AREA. OTHERWISE...NO
MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SFC-UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A SFC BOUNDARY (WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST) WILL
INTERACT WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY EAST OF THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. MUCH OF
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL BRING SHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDER) TO
THE EXTREME WESTERN FA BY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER
AND STRONGER SOLUTION. A SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE GREAT LAKES WAVE WILL ACT TO
BLOCK THE CANADIAN WAVE...THUS SLOWING IT DOWN. THE 00Z ECMWF AND
00Z GFS HAVE THE STRONGEST SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE NAM/GEM/SREF
SHOW A SIMILAR EVOLUTION...JUST NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB LOW. THE STRONGER SOLUTION
WOULD BRING IN COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR...AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
SNOW. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER
END OF QPF AND WIND SPEEDS...AND ONLY INTRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. WITH THAT SAID...IF THE ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS DO VERIFY WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME SORT OF WINTER
HEADLINES...SO THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
IT DOES LOOK WINDY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...AND INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS.

MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...BUT MOST
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST OVER HUDSON BAY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD THEN DEAMPLIFIES THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD. FAST
FLOW ALOFT EXPECT TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD. SO CONFIDENCE WILL BE LOW IN THIS FLOW PATTERN.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND
REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BLEND GFS AND ECMWF WITH
PREFERENCE TOWARD ECMWF.  WILL KEEP YESTERDAYS POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY LOWERED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES FOR SAT,
SUN, AND MON. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTH. FOR THOSE
SITES STILL WITH MVFR CIGS...THEY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE VFR CIGS AT SOME POINT
TODAY. BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 011507
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1007 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WE WILL INCREASE WINDS A BIT ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...WITH
ABOUT 30KT TO MIX FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER IN THE EAST INTO NW
MN...AND WILL EXPAND POPS A BIT INTO THE ROX AREA. OTHERWISE...NO
MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SFC-UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A SFC BOUNDARY (WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST) WILL
INTERACT WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY EAST OF THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. MUCH OF
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL BRING SHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDER) TO
THE EXTREME WESTERN FA BY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER
AND STRONGER SOLUTION. A SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE GREAT LAKES WAVE WILL ACT TO
BLOCK THE CANADIAN WAVE...THUS SLOWING IT DOWN. THE 00Z ECMWF AND
00Z GFS HAVE THE STRONGEST SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE NAM/GEM/SREF
SHOW A SIMILAR EVOLUTION...JUST NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB LOW. THE STRONGER SOLUTION
WOULD BRING IN COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR...AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
SNOW. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER
END OF QPF AND WIND SPEEDS...AND ONLY INTRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. WITH THAT SAID...IF THE ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS DO VERIFY WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME SORT OF WINTER
HEADLINES...SO THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
IT DOES LOOK WINDY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...AND INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS.

MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...BUT MOST
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST OVER HUDSON BAY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD THEN DEAMPLIFIES THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD. FAST
FLOW ALOFT EXPECT TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD. SO CONFIDENCE WILL BE LOW IN THIS FLOW PATTERN.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND
REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BLEND GFS AND ECMWF WITH
PREFERENCE TOWARD ECMWF.  WILL KEEP YESTERDAYS POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY LOWERED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES FOR SAT,
SUN, AND MON. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTH. FOR THOSE
SITES STILL WITH MVFR CIGS...THEY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE VFR CIGS AT SOME POINT
TODAY. BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 011507
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1007 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WE WILL INCREASE WINDS A BIT ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...WITH
ABOUT 30KT TO MIX FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER IN THE EAST INTO NW
MN...AND WILL EXPAND POPS A BIT INTO THE ROX AREA. OTHERWISE...NO
MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SFC-UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A SFC BOUNDARY (WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST) WILL
INTERACT WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY EAST OF THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. MUCH OF
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL BRING SHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDER) TO
THE EXTREME WESTERN FA BY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER
AND STRONGER SOLUTION. A SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE GREAT LAKES WAVE WILL ACT TO
BLOCK THE CANADIAN WAVE...THUS SLOWING IT DOWN. THE 00Z ECMWF AND
00Z GFS HAVE THE STRONGEST SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE NAM/GEM/SREF
SHOW A SIMILAR EVOLUTION...JUST NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB LOW. THE STRONGER SOLUTION
WOULD BRING IN COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR...AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
SNOW. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER
END OF QPF AND WIND SPEEDS...AND ONLY INTRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. WITH THAT SAID...IF THE ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS DO VERIFY WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME SORT OF WINTER
HEADLINES...SO THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
IT DOES LOOK WINDY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...AND INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS.

MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...BUT MOST
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST OVER HUDSON BAY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD THEN DEAMPLIFIES THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD. FAST
FLOW ALOFT EXPECT TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD. SO CONFIDENCE WILL BE LOW IN THIS FLOW PATTERN.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND
REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BLEND GFS AND ECMWF WITH
PREFERENCE TOWARD ECMWF.  WILL KEEP YESTERDAYS POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY LOWERED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES FOR SAT,
SUN, AND MON. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTH. FOR THOSE
SITES STILL WITH MVFR CIGS...THEY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE VFR CIGS AT SOME POINT
TODAY. BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KBIS 011443
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
943 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WANE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. MAY BE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS WEST. NO CHANGES OTHER
THAN UPDATING SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AT 630 AM CDT UPPER LOW IS LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE STATE. MOST OF
THE RADAR RETURNS HAVE DIMINISHED. TRIMMED BACK THE POPS A BIT
FOR TODAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE REGION FORM MUCH
OF THE MORNING BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RAIN CHANCES
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TODAY.

CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR RUGBY. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUED OVER BOTTINEAU COUNTY...WITH MOST OF THE AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS NORTH OF THE LOW IN SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY
WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK...AND REACH
NORTHERN MANITOBA BY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION
OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...IT IS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH ENCOMPASSES THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
US AND CANADA. ONE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES WITHIN
THE LARGE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE CLOUD SHIELD SURROUNDING THE EXITING STACKED SYSTEM IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS (THE H925-H850 RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD) TO
REMAIN OVER NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. PLENTY OF STRATUS/CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON (WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS).

EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE EXITING LOW TO REACH THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE TODAY. THUS A BLUSTERY DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S.

DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S
WEST TO THE 40S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NOW APPEARS POISED TO GIVE NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUT FIRST...IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND POTENT COLD
FRONT...WARM AIR WILL GIVE RISE TO SOME MODEST CAPE THAT SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE H300 140KT JET ON BACK SIDE OF H500
TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN EXITING
JET ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN EASTERN ND/MN. THE GFS QPF
FITS THE MODEL FRONTOGENESIS PRETTY WELL AT H850 THAT THE NAM JUST
DOES NOT MATCH UP WITH AS STRONG...HENCE THE NAMS MUCH WEAKER
FIELD OF QPF. LATEST LOOK AT ECMWF COMPARES SOMEWHAT FAVORABLY
WITH THE GFS SO WILL TREND TOWARD A LARGER PRECIP AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD
WHERE THE MAX VERTICAL VELOCITY OVERLAYS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
BETWEEN -10 TO -20C. BELIEVE THE SNOW WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD
BETWEEN 1 AM AND 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. QPF AND SNOW RATIOS YIELD
ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW GENERALLY WEST OF MINOT IN BURK/MOUNTRAIL
COUNTIES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EAST AND WEST OF THIS. WIND WILL ALSO
BE AN ISSUE OF WHICH THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST. THE MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OVER MINOT HAS 57 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT
2500 AGL TO 40 KTS AT THE BOTTOM AT 7 PM THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WOULD CERTAINLY EVENTUALLY SUPPORT A WIND ADVISORY WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF HIGH WIND CRITERIA (ASSUMING THE GFS VERIFIES AND IT IS
THE STRONGEST FOR WINDS.) TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S SHOULD
LIMIT BLOWING SNOW BUT IF IT GETS COLDER THERE WILL BE MORE OF A
BLOWING SNOW PROBLEM.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY END FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND WILL BE
PRETTY MUCH DRY WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A RATHER
LARGE H500 UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. THIS TREND
CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY TO
VFR BY 18Z-20Z. VFR CIGS SCATTERING FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT
KISN/KDIK AROUND 00Z. WEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS ALL TAF SITES
TODAY...DECREASING AFT 00Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 011443
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
943 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WANE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. MAY BE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS WEST. NO CHANGES OTHER
THAN UPDATING SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AT 630 AM CDT UPPER LOW IS LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE STATE. MOST OF
THE RADAR RETURNS HAVE DIMINISHED. TRIMMED BACK THE POPS A BIT
FOR TODAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE REGION FORM MUCH
OF THE MORNING BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RAIN CHANCES
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TODAY.

CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR RUGBY. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUED OVER BOTTINEAU COUNTY...WITH MOST OF THE AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS NORTH OF THE LOW IN SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY
WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK...AND REACH
NORTHERN MANITOBA BY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION
OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...IT IS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH ENCOMPASSES THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
US AND CANADA. ONE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES WITHIN
THE LARGE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE CLOUD SHIELD SURROUNDING THE EXITING STACKED SYSTEM IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS (THE H925-H850 RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD) TO
REMAIN OVER NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. PLENTY OF STRATUS/CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON (WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS).

EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE EXITING LOW TO REACH THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE TODAY. THUS A BLUSTERY DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S.

DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S
WEST TO THE 40S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NOW APPEARS POISED TO GIVE NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUT FIRST...IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND POTENT COLD
FRONT...WARM AIR WILL GIVE RISE TO SOME MODEST CAPE THAT SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE H300 140KT JET ON BACK SIDE OF H500
TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN EXITING
JET ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN EASTERN ND/MN. THE GFS QPF
FITS THE MODEL FRONTOGENESIS PRETTY WELL AT H850 THAT THE NAM JUST
DOES NOT MATCH UP WITH AS STRONG...HENCE THE NAMS MUCH WEAKER
FIELD OF QPF. LATEST LOOK AT ECMWF COMPARES SOMEWHAT FAVORABLY
WITH THE GFS SO WILL TREND TOWARD A LARGER PRECIP AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD
WHERE THE MAX VERTICAL VELOCITY OVERLAYS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
BETWEEN -10 TO -20C. BELIEVE THE SNOW WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD
BETWEEN 1 AM AND 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. QPF AND SNOW RATIOS YIELD
ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW GENERALLY WEST OF MINOT IN BURK/MOUNTRAIL
COUNTIES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EAST AND WEST OF THIS. WIND WILL ALSO
BE AN ISSUE OF WHICH THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST. THE MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OVER MINOT HAS 57 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT
2500 AGL TO 40 KTS AT THE BOTTOM AT 7 PM THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WOULD CERTAINLY EVENTUALLY SUPPORT A WIND ADVISORY WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF HIGH WIND CRITERIA (ASSUMING THE GFS VERIFIES AND IT IS
THE STRONGEST FOR WINDS.) TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S SHOULD
LIMIT BLOWING SNOW BUT IF IT GETS COLDER THERE WILL BE MORE OF A
BLOWING SNOW PROBLEM.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY END FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND WILL BE
PRETTY MUCH DRY WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A RATHER
LARGE H500 UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. THIS TREND
CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY TO
VFR BY 18Z-20Z. VFR CIGS SCATTERING FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT
KISN/KDIK AROUND 00Z. WEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS ALL TAF SITES
TODAY...DECREASING AFT 00Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 011150
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
650 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AT 630 AM CDT UPPER LOW IS LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE STATE. MOST OF
THE RADAR RETURNS HAVE DIMINISHED. TRIMMED BACK THE POPS A BIT
FOR TODAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE REGION FORM MUCH
OF THE MORNING BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RAIN CHANCES
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TODAY.

CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR RUGBY. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUED OVER BOTTINEAU COUNTY...WITH MOST OF THE AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS NORTH OF THE LOW IN SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY
WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK...AND REACH
NORTHERN MANITOBA BY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION
OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...IT IS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH ENCOMPASSES THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
US AND CANADA. ONE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES WITHIN
THE LARGE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE CLOUD SHIELD SURROUNDING THE EXITING STACKED SYSTEM IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS (THE H925-H850 RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD) TO
REMAIN OVER NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. PLENTY OF STRATUS/CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON (WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS).

EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE EXITING LOW TO REACH THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE TODAY. THUS A BLUSTERY DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S.

DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S
WEST TO THE 40S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NOW APPEARS POISED TO GIVE NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUT FIRST...IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND POTENT COLD
FRONT...WARM AIR WILL GIVE RISE TO SOME MODEST CAPE THAT SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE H300 140KT JET ON BACK SIDE OF H500
TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN EXITING
JET ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN EASTERN ND/MN. THE GFS QPF
FITS THE MODEL FRONTOGENESIS PRETTY WELL AT H850 THAT THE NAM JUST
DOES NOT MATCH UP WITH AS STRONG...HENCE THE NAMS MUCH WEAKER
FIELD OF QPF. LATEST LOOK AT ECMWF COMPARES SOMEWHAT FAVORABLY
WITH THE GFS SO WILL TREND TOWARD A LARGER PRECIP AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD
WHERE THE MAX VERTICAL VELOCITY OVERLAYS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
BETWEEN -10 TO -20C. BELIEVE THE SNOW WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD
BETWEEN 1 AM AND 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. QPF AND SNOW RATIOS YIELD
ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW GENERALLY WEST OF MINOT IN BURK/MOUNTRAIL
COUNTIES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EAST AND WEST OF THIS. WIND WILL ALSO
BE AN ISSUE OF WHICH THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST. THE MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OVER MINOT HAS 57 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT
2500 AGL TO 40 KTS AT THE BOTTOM AT 7 PM THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WOULD CERTAINLY EVENTUALLY SUPPORT A WIND ADVISORY WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF HIGH WIND CRITERIA (ASSUMING THE GFS VERIFIES AND IT IS
THE STRONGEST FOR WINDS.) TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S SHOULD
LIMIT BLOWING SNOW BUT IF IT GETS COLDER THERE WILL BE MORE OF A
BLOWING SNOW PROBLEM.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY END FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND WILL BE
PRETTY MUCH DRY WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A RATHER
LARGE H500 UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. THIS TREND
CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014


WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY TO
VFR BY 18Z-20Z. VFR CIGS SCATTERING FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT
KISN/KDIK AROUND 00Z. WEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS ALL TAF SITES
TODAY...DECREASING AFT 00Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 011150
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
650 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AT 630 AM CDT UPPER LOW IS LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE STATE. MOST OF
THE RADAR RETURNS HAVE DIMINISHED. TRIMMED BACK THE POPS A BIT
FOR TODAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE REGION FORM MUCH
OF THE MORNING BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RAIN CHANCES
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TODAY.

CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR RUGBY. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUED OVER BOTTINEAU COUNTY...WITH MOST OF THE AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS NORTH OF THE LOW IN SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY
WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK...AND REACH
NORTHERN MANITOBA BY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION
OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...IT IS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH ENCOMPASSES THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
US AND CANADA. ONE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES WITHIN
THE LARGE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE CLOUD SHIELD SURROUNDING THE EXITING STACKED SYSTEM IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS (THE H925-H850 RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD) TO
REMAIN OVER NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. PLENTY OF STRATUS/CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON (WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS).

EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE EXITING LOW TO REACH THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE TODAY. THUS A BLUSTERY DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S.

DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S
WEST TO THE 40S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NOW APPEARS POISED TO GIVE NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUT FIRST...IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND POTENT COLD
FRONT...WARM AIR WILL GIVE RISE TO SOME MODEST CAPE THAT SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE H300 140KT JET ON BACK SIDE OF H500
TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN EXITING
JET ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN EASTERN ND/MN. THE GFS QPF
FITS THE MODEL FRONTOGENESIS PRETTY WELL AT H850 THAT THE NAM JUST
DOES NOT MATCH UP WITH AS STRONG...HENCE THE NAMS MUCH WEAKER
FIELD OF QPF. LATEST LOOK AT ECMWF COMPARES SOMEWHAT FAVORABLY
WITH THE GFS SO WILL TREND TOWARD A LARGER PRECIP AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD
WHERE THE MAX VERTICAL VELOCITY OVERLAYS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
BETWEEN -10 TO -20C. BELIEVE THE SNOW WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD
BETWEEN 1 AM AND 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. QPF AND SNOW RATIOS YIELD
ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW GENERALLY WEST OF MINOT IN BURK/MOUNTRAIL
COUNTIES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EAST AND WEST OF THIS. WIND WILL ALSO
BE AN ISSUE OF WHICH THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST. THE MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OVER MINOT HAS 57 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT
2500 AGL TO 40 KTS AT THE BOTTOM AT 7 PM THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WOULD CERTAINLY EVENTUALLY SUPPORT A WIND ADVISORY WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF HIGH WIND CRITERIA (ASSUMING THE GFS VERIFIES AND IT IS
THE STRONGEST FOR WINDS.) TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S SHOULD
LIMIT BLOWING SNOW BUT IF IT GETS COLDER THERE WILL BE MORE OF A
BLOWING SNOW PROBLEM.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY END FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND WILL BE
PRETTY MUCH DRY WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A RATHER
LARGE H500 UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. THIS TREND
CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014


WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY TO
VFR BY 18Z-20Z. VFR CIGS SCATTERING FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT
KISN/KDIK AROUND 00Z. WEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS ALL TAF SITES
TODAY...DECREASING AFT 00Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 011132
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
632 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SFC-UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A SFC BOUNDARY (WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST) WILL
INTERACT WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY EAST OF THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. MUCH OF
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL BRING SHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDER) TO
THE EXTREME WESTERN FA BY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER
AND STRONGER SOLUTION. A SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE GREAT LAKES WAVE WILL ACT TO
BLOCK THE CANADIAN WAVE...THUS SLOWING IT DOWN. THE 00Z ECMWF AND
00Z GFS HAVE THE STRONGEST SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE NAM/GEM/SREF
SHOW A SIMILAR EVOLUTION...JUST NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB LOW. THE STRONGER SOLUTION
WOULD BRING IN COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR...AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
SNOW. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER
END OF QPF AND WIND SPEEDS...AND ONLY INTRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. WITH THAT SAID...IF THE ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS DO VERIFY WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME SORT OF WINTER
HEADLINES...SO THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
IT DOES LOOK WINDY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...AND INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS.

MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...BUT MOST
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST OVER HUDSON BAY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD THEN DEAMPLIFIES THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD. FAST
FLOW ALOFT EXPECT TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD. SO CONFIDENCE WILL BE LOW IN THIS FLOW PATTERN.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND
REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BLEND GFS AND ECMWF WITH
PREFERENCE TOWARD ECMWF.  WILL KEEP YESTERDAYS POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY LOWERED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES FOR SAT,
SUN, AND MON. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTH. FOR THOSE
SITES STILL WITH MVFR CIGS...THEY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE VFR CIGS AT SOME POINT
TODAY. BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 011132
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
632 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SFC-UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A SFC BOUNDARY (WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST) WILL
INTERACT WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY EAST OF THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. MUCH OF
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL BRING SHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDER) TO
THE EXTREME WESTERN FA BY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER
AND STRONGER SOLUTION. A SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE GREAT LAKES WAVE WILL ACT TO
BLOCK THE CANADIAN WAVE...THUS SLOWING IT DOWN. THE 00Z ECMWF AND
00Z GFS HAVE THE STRONGEST SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE NAM/GEM/SREF
SHOW A SIMILAR EVOLUTION...JUST NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB LOW. THE STRONGER SOLUTION
WOULD BRING IN COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR...AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
SNOW. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER
END OF QPF AND WIND SPEEDS...AND ONLY INTRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. WITH THAT SAID...IF THE ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS DO VERIFY WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME SORT OF WINTER
HEADLINES...SO THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
IT DOES LOOK WINDY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...AND INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS.

MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...BUT MOST
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST OVER HUDSON BAY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD THEN DEAMPLIFIES THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD. FAST
FLOW ALOFT EXPECT TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD. SO CONFIDENCE WILL BE LOW IN THIS FLOW PATTERN.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND
REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BLEND GFS AND ECMWF WITH
PREFERENCE TOWARD ECMWF.  WILL KEEP YESTERDAYS POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY LOWERED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES FOR SAT,
SUN, AND MON. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTH. FOR THOSE
SITES STILL WITH MVFR CIGS...THEY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE VFR CIGS AT SOME POINT
TODAY. BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 011132
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
632 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SFC-UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A SFC BOUNDARY (WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST) WILL
INTERACT WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY EAST OF THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. MUCH OF
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL BRING SHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDER) TO
THE EXTREME WESTERN FA BY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER
AND STRONGER SOLUTION. A SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE GREAT LAKES WAVE WILL ACT TO
BLOCK THE CANADIAN WAVE...THUS SLOWING IT DOWN. THE 00Z ECMWF AND
00Z GFS HAVE THE STRONGEST SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE NAM/GEM/SREF
SHOW A SIMILAR EVOLUTION...JUST NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB LOW. THE STRONGER SOLUTION
WOULD BRING IN COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR...AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
SNOW. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER
END OF QPF AND WIND SPEEDS...AND ONLY INTRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. WITH THAT SAID...IF THE ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS DO VERIFY WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME SORT OF WINTER
HEADLINES...SO THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
IT DOES LOOK WINDY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...AND INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS.

MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...BUT MOST
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST OVER HUDSON BAY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD THEN DEAMPLIFIES THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD. FAST
FLOW ALOFT EXPECT TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD. SO CONFIDENCE WILL BE LOW IN THIS FLOW PATTERN.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND
REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BLEND GFS AND ECMWF WITH
PREFERENCE TOWARD ECMWF.  WILL KEEP YESTERDAYS POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY LOWERED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES FOR SAT,
SUN, AND MON. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTH. FOR THOSE
SITES STILL WITH MVFR CIGS...THEY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE VFR CIGS AT SOME POINT
TODAY. BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 011132
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
632 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SFC-UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A SFC BOUNDARY (WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST) WILL
INTERACT WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY EAST OF THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. MUCH OF
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL BRING SHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDER) TO
THE EXTREME WESTERN FA BY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER
AND STRONGER SOLUTION. A SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE GREAT LAKES WAVE WILL ACT TO
BLOCK THE CANADIAN WAVE...THUS SLOWING IT DOWN. THE 00Z ECMWF AND
00Z GFS HAVE THE STRONGEST SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE NAM/GEM/SREF
SHOW A SIMILAR EVOLUTION...JUST NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB LOW. THE STRONGER SOLUTION
WOULD BRING IN COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR...AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
SNOW. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER
END OF QPF AND WIND SPEEDS...AND ONLY INTRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. WITH THAT SAID...IF THE ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS DO VERIFY WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME SORT OF WINTER
HEADLINES...SO THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
IT DOES LOOK WINDY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...AND INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS.

MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...BUT MOST
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST OVER HUDSON BAY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD THEN DEAMPLIFIES THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD. FAST
FLOW ALOFT EXPECT TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD. SO CONFIDENCE WILL BE LOW IN THIS FLOW PATTERN.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND
REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BLEND GFS AND ECMWF WITH
PREFERENCE TOWARD ECMWF.  WILL KEEP YESTERDAYS POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY LOWERED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES FOR SAT,
SUN, AND MON. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTH. FOR THOSE
SITES STILL WITH MVFR CIGS...THEY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE VFR CIGS AT SOME POINT
TODAY. BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 010900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SFC-UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A SFC BOUNDARY (WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST) WILL
INTERACT WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY EAST OF THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. MUCH OF
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL BRING SHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDER) TO
THE EXTREME WESTERN FA BY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER
AND STRONGER SOLUTION. A SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE GREAT LAKES WAVE WILL ACT TO
BLOCK THE CANADIAN WAVE...THUS SLOWING IT DOWN. THE 00Z ECMWF AND
00Z GFS HAVE THE STRONGEST SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE NAM/GEM/SREF
SHOW A SIMILAR EVOLUTION...JUST NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB LOW. THE STRONGER SOLUTION
WOULD BRING IN COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR...AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
SNOW. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER
END OF QPF AND WIND SPEEDS...AND ONLY INTRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. WITH THAT SAID...IF THE ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS DO VERIFY WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME SORT OF WINTER
HEADLINES...SO THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
IT DOES LOOK WINDY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...AND INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS.

MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...BUT MOST
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST OVER HUDSON BAY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD THEN DEAMPLIFIES THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD. FAST
FLOW ALOFT EXPECT TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD. SO CONFIDENCE WILL BE LOW IN THIS FLOW PATTERN.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND
REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BLEND GFS AND ECMWF WITH
PREFERENCE TOWARD ECMWF.  WILL KEEP YESTERDAYS POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY LOWERED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES FOR SAT,
SUN, AND MON. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF FAR ERN AREAS SUCH AS BAUDETTE-BEMIDJI-WADENA WHERE VFR CIGS
REMAIN. ISSUES THIS FCST IS AFFECT OF DRY SLOT IN CLEARING OUT THE
MVFR CIGS INTO FARGO AREA OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TVF/GFK AS
WELL. THEN MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO SPREAD BACK IN AS UPPER LOW/SFC LOW
MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
OVERNIGHT IN THE 15 TO 30 KT RANGE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND THEN EVENTUALLY CLOSER TO WEST WED AFTN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...RIDDLE





000
FXUS63 KFGF 010900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SFC-UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A SFC BOUNDARY (WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST) WILL
INTERACT WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY EAST OF THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. MUCH OF
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL BRING SHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDER) TO
THE EXTREME WESTERN FA BY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER
AND STRONGER SOLUTION. A SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE GREAT LAKES WAVE WILL ACT TO
BLOCK THE CANADIAN WAVE...THUS SLOWING IT DOWN. THE 00Z ECMWF AND
00Z GFS HAVE THE STRONGEST SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE NAM/GEM/SREF
SHOW A SIMILAR EVOLUTION...JUST NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB LOW. THE STRONGER SOLUTION
WOULD BRING IN COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR...AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
SNOW. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER
END OF QPF AND WIND SPEEDS...AND ONLY INTRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. WITH THAT SAID...IF THE ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS DO VERIFY WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME SORT OF WINTER
HEADLINES...SO THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
IT DOES LOOK WINDY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...AND INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS.

MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...BUT MOST
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST OVER HUDSON BAY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD THEN DEAMPLIFIES THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD. FAST
FLOW ALOFT EXPECT TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD. SO CONFIDENCE WILL BE LOW IN THIS FLOW PATTERN.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND
REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BLEND GFS AND ECMWF WITH
PREFERENCE TOWARD ECMWF.  WILL KEEP YESTERDAYS POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY LOWERED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES FOR SAT,
SUN, AND MON. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF FAR ERN AREAS SUCH AS BAUDETTE-BEMIDJI-WADENA WHERE VFR CIGS
REMAIN. ISSUES THIS FCST IS AFFECT OF DRY SLOT IN CLEARING OUT THE
MVFR CIGS INTO FARGO AREA OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TVF/GFK AS
WELL. THEN MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO SPREAD BACK IN AS UPPER LOW/SFC LOW
MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
OVERNIGHT IN THE 15 TO 30 KT RANGE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND THEN EVENTUALLY CLOSER TO WEST WED AFTN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KBIS 010859
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
359 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RAIN CHANCES
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TODAY.

CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR RUGBY. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUED OVER BOTTINEAU COUNTY...WITH MOST OF THE AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS NORTH OF THE LOW IN SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY
WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK...AND REACH
NORTHERN MANITOBA BY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION
OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...IT IS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH ENCOMPASSES THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
US AND CANADA. ONE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES WITHIN
THE LARGE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE CLOUD SHIELD SURROUNDING THE EXITING STACKED SYSTEM IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS (THE H925-H850 RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD) TO
REMAIN OVER NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. PLENTY OF STRATUS/CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON (WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS).

EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE EXITING LOW TO REACH THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE TODAY. THUS A BLUSTERY DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S.

DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S
WEST TO THE 40S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NOW APPEARS POISED TO GIVE NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUT FIRST...IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND POTENT COLD
FRONT...WARM AIR WILL GIVE RISE TO SOME MODEST CAPE THAT SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE H300 140KT JET ON BACK SIDE OF H500
TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN EXITING
JET ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN EASTERN ND/MN. THE GFS QPF
FITS THE MODEL FRONTOGENESIS PRETTY WELL AT H850 THAT THE NAM JUST
DOES NOT MATCH UP WITH AS STRONG...HENCE THE NAMS MUCH WEAKER
FIELD OF QPF. LATEST LOOK AT ECMWF COMPARES SOMEWHAT FAVORABLY
WITH THE GFS SO WILL TREND TOWARD A LARGER PRECIP AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD
WHERE THE MAX VERTICAL VELOCITY OVERLAYS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
BETWEEN -10 TO -20C. BELIEVE THE SNOW WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD
BETWEEN 1 AM AND 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. QPF AND SNOW RATIOS YIELD
ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW GENERALLY WEST OF MINOT IN BURK/MOUNTRAIL
COUNTIES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EAST AND WEST OF THIS. WIND WILL ALSO
BE AN ISSUE OF WHICH THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST. THE MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OVER MINOT HAS 57 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT
2500 AGL TO 40 KTS AT THE BOTTOM AT 7 PM THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WOULD CERTAINLY EVENTUALLY SUPPORT A WIND ADVISORY WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF HIGH WIND CRITERIA (ASSUMING THE GFS VERIFIES AND IT IS
THE STRONGEST FOR WINDS.) TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S SHOULD
LIMIT BLOWING SNOW BUT IF IT GETS COLDER THERE WILL BE MORE OF A
BLOWING SNOW PROBLEM.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY END FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND WILL BE
PRETTY MUCH DRY WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A RATHER
LARGE H500 UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. THIS TREND
CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN THIS MORNING AS CLOUD
SHIELD ROTATES AROUND THE SURFACE LOW - WHICH WAS NEAR HARVEY AT
05Z. EXPECT THE LOW TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO MANITOBA BY
DAYBREAK. SOUTH WINDS AT KJMS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AFT 08Z/10Z. WEST
WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z-18Z
AND CIGS TO BECOME VFR BY 18Z. WINDS DECREASING BY 00Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV









000
FXUS63 KBIS 010859
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
359 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RAIN CHANCES
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TODAY.

CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR RUGBY. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUED OVER BOTTINEAU COUNTY...WITH MOST OF THE AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS NORTH OF THE LOW IN SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY
WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK...AND REACH
NORTHERN MANITOBA BY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION
OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...IT IS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH ENCOMPASSES THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
US AND CANADA. ONE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES WITHIN
THE LARGE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE CLOUD SHIELD SURROUNDING THE EXITING STACKED SYSTEM IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS (THE H925-H850 RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD) TO
REMAIN OVER NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. PLENTY OF STRATUS/CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON (WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS).

EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE EXITING LOW TO REACH THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE TODAY. THUS A BLUSTERY DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S.

DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S
WEST TO THE 40S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NOW APPEARS POISED TO GIVE NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUT FIRST...IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND POTENT COLD
FRONT...WARM AIR WILL GIVE RISE TO SOME MODEST CAPE THAT SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE H300 140KT JET ON BACK SIDE OF H500
TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN EXITING
JET ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN EASTERN ND/MN. THE GFS QPF
FITS THE MODEL FRONTOGENESIS PRETTY WELL AT H850 THAT THE NAM JUST
DOES NOT MATCH UP WITH AS STRONG...HENCE THE NAMS MUCH WEAKER
FIELD OF QPF. LATEST LOOK AT ECMWF COMPARES SOMEWHAT FAVORABLY
WITH THE GFS SO WILL TREND TOWARD A LARGER PRECIP AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD
WHERE THE MAX VERTICAL VELOCITY OVERLAYS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
BETWEEN -10 TO -20C. BELIEVE THE SNOW WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD
BETWEEN 1 AM AND 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. QPF AND SNOW RATIOS YIELD
ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW GENERALLY WEST OF MINOT IN BURK/MOUNTRAIL
COUNTIES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EAST AND WEST OF THIS. WIND WILL ALSO
BE AN ISSUE OF WHICH THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST. THE MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OVER MINOT HAS 57 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT
2500 AGL TO 40 KTS AT THE BOTTOM AT 7 PM THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WOULD CERTAINLY EVENTUALLY SUPPORT A WIND ADVISORY WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF HIGH WIND CRITERIA (ASSUMING THE GFS VERIFIES AND IT IS
THE STRONGEST FOR WINDS.) TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S SHOULD
LIMIT BLOWING SNOW BUT IF IT GETS COLDER THERE WILL BE MORE OF A
BLOWING SNOW PROBLEM.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY END FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND WILL BE
PRETTY MUCH DRY WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A RATHER
LARGE H500 UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. THIS TREND
CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN THIS MORNING AS CLOUD
SHIELD ROTATES AROUND THE SURFACE LOW - WHICH WAS NEAR HARVEY AT
05Z. EXPECT THE LOW TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO MANITOBA BY
DAYBREAK. SOUTH WINDS AT KJMS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AFT 08Z/10Z. WEST
WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z-18Z
AND CIGS TO BECOME VFR BY 18Z. WINDS DECREASING BY 00Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV










000
FXUS63 KBIS 010603
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
103 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR HARVEY...WITH SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND WESTERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL...EAST WINDS WERE
TURNING NORTHERLY AROUND THE LOW. AREA OF SHOWERS WAS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIFTING NORTHWARD. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
WAS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL...THEN RAIN CHANCES DECREASING WITH TIME AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA BY/BEFORE DAYBREAK.

THE HRRR MODEL INDICATED THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE WAS FAVORED
FOR SOME FOG THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE VICINITY OF THE LOW IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL...HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG.

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE MAIN FEATURES. HOURLY TEMPS AND
WINDS WERE ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SURFACE LOW HAS SHIFTED INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS
WAY NORTH. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR EVENING UPDATE AS
ONLY LIGHTNING WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER EASTERN MONTANA.
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS
SUGGESTED BY HIGH-RES MODELS SO HAVE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA AS LOW LIFTS ITS WAY INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTH/EAST OF BISMARCK DOWN
TOWARDS ELLENDALE IN AREA THAT HAD SOME CLEARING EARLIER AND IS
NOW BEING FED BY WARMER/MOIST AIR PULLING IN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE LOW. INITIAL STORM PRODUCED A TORNADO JUST OVER THE BORDER
IN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE STRONGER SHEAR IS NOTED. MODEST SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUES...THOUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED IN CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA BETWEEN FAITH...PHILIP AND PIERRE. INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. LATEST 19Z/18Z RAP/HRRR
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR DOES SHOW INCREASING
REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER FROM AROUND HETTINGER TO
SELFRIDGE AND LIFTING NORTH NORTHWEST. THUS THINK THE MESOSCALE
MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT.
WHETHER OR NOT WE GET THE CONVECTION IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. CLOUD
COVER HAS LIMITED INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON THUS MINIMIZING THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...FORCING WITH THE STACKED SYSTEM
MAY YET BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER. IF THAT DOES
OCCUR THE STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND BULK SHEAR WOULD BE ENOUGH
THAT A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR POSSIBLE WEAK TORNADO COULD
OCCUR. THE BEST GUESS FOR PLACEMENT WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE FROM JUST WEST OF THE BISMARCK MANDAN
AREA...EAST TO NEAR JAMESTOWN AND ELLENDALE...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
NORTH AS THE HARVEY AND CARRINGTON AREAS. TIMING IS EXPECTED TO BE
FROM BEGINNING AROUND 21 UTC IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...AND ENDING
AROUND 02 UTC WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE WEST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AND THE COLD AIR PUSHING IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE 12 UTC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A THE LARGE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
00 UTC FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER 00
UTC FRIDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DEVIATE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE 12 UTC
GFS IS BY FAR THE FASTEST WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH...PUSHING ALL PRECIPITATION EAST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY FRIDAY 00 UTC. THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND DEEPEST
OF THE SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION EVEN PLACES A 500 MB CLOSED LOW
OVER NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AT 06 UTC AND HAS WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
LINGERING THROUGH 18 UTC FRIDAY. FOR THE FORECAST HAVE WENT WITH THE
LATEST 12 UTC GEM NHEM WHICH SEEMS TO BE A 50/50 SPLIT OF THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION THAT COMES TRUE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR
WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRIDAY SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW. THE
TRICKY PART WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION COMES
THROUGH ALONG WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THERE COLDEST ACROSS THE
STATE...LOWER 30S TO UPPER 20S. IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM A FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL...PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN THIS MORNING AS CLOUD
SHIELD ROTATES AROUND THE SURFACE LOW - WHICH WAS NEAR HARVEY AT
05Z. EXPECT THE LOW TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO MANITOBA BY
DAYBREAK. SOUTH WINDS AT KJMS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AFT 08Z/10Z. WEST
WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z-18Z
AND CIGS TO BECOME VFR BY 18Z. WINDS DECREASING BY 00Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 010603
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
103 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR HARVEY...WITH SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND WESTERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL...EAST WINDS WERE
TURNING NORTHERLY AROUND THE LOW. AREA OF SHOWERS WAS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIFTING NORTHWARD. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
WAS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL...THEN RAIN CHANCES DECREASING WITH TIME AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA BY/BEFORE DAYBREAK.

THE HRRR MODEL INDICATED THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE WAS FAVORED
FOR SOME FOG THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE VICINITY OF THE LOW IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL...HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG.

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE MAIN FEATURES. HOURLY TEMPS AND
WINDS WERE ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SURFACE LOW HAS SHIFTED INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS
WAY NORTH. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR EVENING UPDATE AS
ONLY LIGHTNING WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER EASTERN MONTANA.
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS
SUGGESTED BY HIGH-RES MODELS SO HAVE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA AS LOW LIFTS ITS WAY INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTH/EAST OF BISMARCK DOWN
TOWARDS ELLENDALE IN AREA THAT HAD SOME CLEARING EARLIER AND IS
NOW BEING FED BY WARMER/MOIST AIR PULLING IN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE LOW. INITIAL STORM PRODUCED A TORNADO JUST OVER THE BORDER
IN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE STRONGER SHEAR IS NOTED. MODEST SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUES...THOUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED IN CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA BETWEEN FAITH...PHILIP AND PIERRE. INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. LATEST 19Z/18Z RAP/HRRR
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR DOES SHOW INCREASING
REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER FROM AROUND HETTINGER TO
SELFRIDGE AND LIFTING NORTH NORTHWEST. THUS THINK THE MESOSCALE
MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT.
WHETHER OR NOT WE GET THE CONVECTION IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. CLOUD
COVER HAS LIMITED INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON THUS MINIMIZING THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...FORCING WITH THE STACKED SYSTEM
MAY YET BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER. IF THAT DOES
OCCUR THE STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND BULK SHEAR WOULD BE ENOUGH
THAT A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR POSSIBLE WEAK TORNADO COULD
OCCUR. THE BEST GUESS FOR PLACEMENT WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE FROM JUST WEST OF THE BISMARCK MANDAN
AREA...EAST TO NEAR JAMESTOWN AND ELLENDALE...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
NORTH AS THE HARVEY AND CARRINGTON AREAS. TIMING IS EXPECTED TO BE
FROM BEGINNING AROUND 21 UTC IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...AND ENDING
AROUND 02 UTC WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE WEST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AND THE COLD AIR PUSHING IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE 12 UTC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A THE LARGE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
00 UTC FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER 00
UTC FRIDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DEVIATE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE 12 UTC
GFS IS BY FAR THE FASTEST WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH...PUSHING ALL PRECIPITATION EAST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY FRIDAY 00 UTC. THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND DEEPEST
OF THE SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION EVEN PLACES A 500 MB CLOSED LOW
OVER NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AT 06 UTC AND HAS WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
LINGERING THROUGH 18 UTC FRIDAY. FOR THE FORECAST HAVE WENT WITH THE
LATEST 12 UTC GEM NHEM WHICH SEEMS TO BE A 50/50 SPLIT OF THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION THAT COMES TRUE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR
WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRIDAY SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW. THE
TRICKY PART WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION COMES
THROUGH ALONG WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THERE COLDEST ACROSS THE
STATE...LOWER 30S TO UPPER 20S. IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM A FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL...PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN THIS MORNING AS CLOUD
SHIELD ROTATES AROUND THE SURFACE LOW - WHICH WAS NEAR HARVEY AT
05Z. EXPECT THE LOW TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO MANITOBA BY
DAYBREAK. SOUTH WINDS AT KJMS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AFT 08Z/10Z. WEST
WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z-18Z
AND CIGS TO BECOME VFR BY 18Z. WINDS DECREASING BY 00Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 010603
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
103 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR HARVEY...WITH SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND WESTERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL...EAST WINDS WERE
TURNING NORTHERLY AROUND THE LOW. AREA OF SHOWERS WAS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIFTING NORTHWARD. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
WAS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL...THEN RAIN CHANCES DECREASING WITH TIME AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA BY/BEFORE DAYBREAK.

THE HRRR MODEL INDICATED THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE WAS FAVORED
FOR SOME FOG THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE VICINITY OF THE LOW IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL...HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG.

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE MAIN FEATURES. HOURLY TEMPS AND
WINDS WERE ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SURFACE LOW HAS SHIFTED INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS
WAY NORTH. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR EVENING UPDATE AS
ONLY LIGHTNING WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER EASTERN MONTANA.
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS
SUGGESTED BY HIGH-RES MODELS SO HAVE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA AS LOW LIFTS ITS WAY INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTH/EAST OF BISMARCK DOWN
TOWARDS ELLENDALE IN AREA THAT HAD SOME CLEARING EARLIER AND IS
NOW BEING FED BY WARMER/MOIST AIR PULLING IN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE LOW. INITIAL STORM PRODUCED A TORNADO JUST OVER THE BORDER
IN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE STRONGER SHEAR IS NOTED. MODEST SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUES...THOUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED IN CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA BETWEEN FAITH...PHILIP AND PIERRE. INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. LATEST 19Z/18Z RAP/HRRR
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR DOES SHOW INCREASING
REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER FROM AROUND HETTINGER TO
SELFRIDGE AND LIFTING NORTH NORTHWEST. THUS THINK THE MESOSCALE
MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT.
WHETHER OR NOT WE GET THE CONVECTION IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. CLOUD
COVER HAS LIMITED INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON THUS MINIMIZING THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...FORCING WITH THE STACKED SYSTEM
MAY YET BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER. IF THAT DOES
OCCUR THE STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND BULK SHEAR WOULD BE ENOUGH
THAT A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR POSSIBLE WEAK TORNADO COULD
OCCUR. THE BEST GUESS FOR PLACEMENT WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE FROM JUST WEST OF THE BISMARCK MANDAN
AREA...EAST TO NEAR JAMESTOWN AND ELLENDALE...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
NORTH AS THE HARVEY AND CARRINGTON AREAS. TIMING IS EXPECTED TO BE
FROM BEGINNING AROUND 21 UTC IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...AND ENDING
AROUND 02 UTC WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE WEST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AND THE COLD AIR PUSHING IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE 12 UTC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A THE LARGE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
00 UTC FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER 00
UTC FRIDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DEVIATE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE 12 UTC
GFS IS BY FAR THE FASTEST WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH...PUSHING ALL PRECIPITATION EAST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY FRIDAY 00 UTC. THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND DEEPEST
OF THE SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION EVEN PLACES A 500 MB CLOSED LOW
OVER NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AT 06 UTC AND HAS WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
LINGERING THROUGH 18 UTC FRIDAY. FOR THE FORECAST HAVE WENT WITH THE
LATEST 12 UTC GEM NHEM WHICH SEEMS TO BE A 50/50 SPLIT OF THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION THAT COMES TRUE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR
WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRIDAY SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW. THE
TRICKY PART WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION COMES
THROUGH ALONG WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THERE COLDEST ACROSS THE
STATE...LOWER 30S TO UPPER 20S. IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM A FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL...PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN THIS MORNING AS CLOUD
SHIELD ROTATES AROUND THE SURFACE LOW - WHICH WAS NEAR HARVEY AT
05Z. EXPECT THE LOW TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO MANITOBA BY
DAYBREAK. SOUTH WINDS AT KJMS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AFT 08Z/10Z. WEST
WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z-18Z
AND CIGS TO BECOME VFR BY 18Z. WINDS DECREASING BY 00Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 010603
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
103 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR HARVEY...WITH SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND WESTERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL...EAST WINDS WERE
TURNING NORTHERLY AROUND THE LOW. AREA OF SHOWERS WAS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIFTING NORTHWARD. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
WAS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL...THEN RAIN CHANCES DECREASING WITH TIME AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA BY/BEFORE DAYBREAK.

THE HRRR MODEL INDICATED THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE WAS FAVORED
FOR SOME FOG THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE VICINITY OF THE LOW IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL...HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG.

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE MAIN FEATURES. HOURLY TEMPS AND
WINDS WERE ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SURFACE LOW HAS SHIFTED INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS
WAY NORTH. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR EVENING UPDATE AS
ONLY LIGHTNING WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER EASTERN MONTANA.
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS
SUGGESTED BY HIGH-RES MODELS SO HAVE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA AS LOW LIFTS ITS WAY INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTH/EAST OF BISMARCK DOWN
TOWARDS ELLENDALE IN AREA THAT HAD SOME CLEARING EARLIER AND IS
NOW BEING FED BY WARMER/MOIST AIR PULLING IN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE LOW. INITIAL STORM PRODUCED A TORNADO JUST OVER THE BORDER
IN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE STRONGER SHEAR IS NOTED. MODEST SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUES...THOUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED IN CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA BETWEEN FAITH...PHILIP AND PIERRE. INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. LATEST 19Z/18Z RAP/HRRR
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR DOES SHOW INCREASING
REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER FROM AROUND HETTINGER TO
SELFRIDGE AND LIFTING NORTH NORTHWEST. THUS THINK THE MESOSCALE
MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT.
WHETHER OR NOT WE GET THE CONVECTION IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. CLOUD
COVER HAS LIMITED INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON THUS MINIMIZING THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...FORCING WITH THE STACKED SYSTEM
MAY YET BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER. IF THAT DOES
OCCUR THE STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND BULK SHEAR WOULD BE ENOUGH
THAT A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR POSSIBLE WEAK TORNADO COULD
OCCUR. THE BEST GUESS FOR PLACEMENT WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE FROM JUST WEST OF THE BISMARCK MANDAN
AREA...EAST TO NEAR JAMESTOWN AND ELLENDALE...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
NORTH AS THE HARVEY AND CARRINGTON AREAS. TIMING IS EXPECTED TO BE
FROM BEGINNING AROUND 21 UTC IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...AND ENDING
AROUND 02 UTC WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE WEST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AND THE COLD AIR PUSHING IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE 12 UTC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A THE LARGE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
00 UTC FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER 00
UTC FRIDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DEVIATE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE 12 UTC
GFS IS BY FAR THE FASTEST WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH...PUSHING ALL PRECIPITATION EAST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY FRIDAY 00 UTC. THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND DEEPEST
OF THE SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION EVEN PLACES A 500 MB CLOSED LOW
OVER NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AT 06 UTC AND HAS WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
LINGERING THROUGH 18 UTC FRIDAY. FOR THE FORECAST HAVE WENT WITH THE
LATEST 12 UTC GEM NHEM WHICH SEEMS TO BE A 50/50 SPLIT OF THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION THAT COMES TRUE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR
WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRIDAY SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW. THE
TRICKY PART WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION COMES
THROUGH ALONG WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THERE COLDEST ACROSS THE
STATE...LOWER 30S TO UPPER 20S. IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM A FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL...PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN THIS MORNING AS CLOUD
SHIELD ROTATES AROUND THE SURFACE LOW - WHICH WAS NEAR HARVEY AT
05Z. EXPECT THE LOW TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO MANITOBA BY
DAYBREAK. SOUTH WINDS AT KJMS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AFT 08Z/10Z. WEST
WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z-18Z
AND CIGS TO BECOME VFR BY 18Z. WINDS DECREASING BY 00Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KFGF 010442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1142 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SFC/500 MB LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF MINOT MOVING NORTH. SHOWERS
MOSTLY CONCENTRATED JUST WEST OF DVL REGION ON EDGE OF FCST AREA
WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN REPORTED OVER FCST AREA (MAINLY
SPRINKLES). DRY SLOT (AT LEAST IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE)
MOVING INTO SE ND AND THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL RRV OVERNIGHT
PER CEILING PROGS FROM LATEST HRRR MODEL. THREAT FOR SHOWERS
DIMINISHING FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY SOUTH WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TWEEKING POPS THIS EVENING. MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED INTO
THE RRV LATE THIS AFTN HAS SINCE WEAKENED AND MOSTLY FALLEN APART
AS IT RAIN INTO DRY AIR OVER NW MN. UPPER LOW WEST OF BISMARCK
WITH SFC LOW IN SIMILAR LOCATION MOVING NORTH AS EXPECTED. BRIEF
CLEARING IN DRY SLOT IN THE ABERDEEN-HURON SD AREA MID AFTN LEAD
TO A NARROW BAND OF T-STORMS SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK TO WEST OF
ABERDEEN AND THESE ARE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW
BUT WITH MUCH MORE STABLE AIR IN SE ND THEY ARE WEAKENING. HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HOURLY PRECIP AND HAS THE REMAINING
SHOWER BAND DRYING UP AS IT MOVES INTO SE ND TOWARD FARGO BY 03Z.
THIS WOULD LEAVE MUCH OF THE RRV/NW AND WCNTRL MN DRY OVERNIGHT.
DID TWEEK POPS TO INDICATE THAT IDEA BUT DID LEAVE IN SOME LOW
POPS PERHAPS A BIT LONGER THAN OTHERWISE WOULD DUE TO
UNCERTAINITIES. BETTER BET FOR SHOWERS IN DVL BASIN SO KEPT HIGHER
POPS THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD FOCUSES ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE 995 MB LOW IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WESTERN SD AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AND INTO SWRN MANITOBA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY ARCS FROM BOTTINEAU TO FARGO AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING PEMBINA BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THIS BAND...PRIMARILY NEAR THE SD BORDER...LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A STORM OR TWO COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS IN THE
FAR SOUTH. ITS LOOKING LIKE MOST OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE IN CENTRAL ND TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT.

TOMORROW...CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR
NORTH AND EAST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POTENT WAVE ENTERS AREA
BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED THUNDER TO THE CWFA BY
THURSDAY PM. GFS DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ITS 12Z SOLN OF THIS
SYSTEM AND USED A BLEND OF THE GEM/EC/NAM WITH ITS 500MB
PLACEMENT...TIMING AND TRACK...ALL OF WHICH BRING THE UPPER LOW TO
THE SD/ND/MN BORDER AREA BY 12Z FRI. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM 850MB
TEMPS REACH INTO THE 5 TO 9C RANGE WITH AND FAVORABLE WARMING SW
SFC WINDS ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND STRONG 925MB CAA. STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NAM SHOWING 40KTS OR
BETTER TO MIX DURING THE DAYTIME. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO MINUS 4C OR
SO WITH 925MB TEMPS NEAR 0C SO WILL LOWER FRIDAY MAX TEMPS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. SHOWERS SLOWLY DEPART WEST TO EAST FRIDAY.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY... NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE PERIOD WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL ALLOW ANY WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN CHC/SLGHT CHC POPS SAT AND SUN WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE GIVING LOW 50S FOR MAX TEMPS. THICKNESSES INCREASE AS THE
NW FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE WEST NW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME AS A RESULT AND SLGHT CHC POPS ARE
LIMITED TO THE EASTERN CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF FAR ERN AREAS SUCH AS BAUDETTE-BEMIDJI-WADENA WHERE VFR CIGS
REMAIN. ISSUES THIS FCST IS AFFECT OF DRY SLOT IN CLEARING OUT THE
MVFR CIGS INTO FARGO AREA OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TVF/GFK AS
WELL. THEN MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO SPREAD BACK IN AS UPPER LOW/SFC LOW
MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
OVERNIGHT IN THE 15 TO 30 KT RANGE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND THEN EVENTUALLY CLOSER TO WEST WED AFTN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 010442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1142 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SFC/500 MB LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF MINOT MOVING NORTH. SHOWERS
MOSTLY CONCENTRATED JUST WEST OF DVL REGION ON EDGE OF FCST AREA
WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN REPORTED OVER FCST AREA (MAINLY
SPRINKLES). DRY SLOT (AT LEAST IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE)
MOVING INTO SE ND AND THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL RRV OVERNIGHT
PER CEILING PROGS FROM LATEST HRRR MODEL. THREAT FOR SHOWERS
DIMINISHING FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY SOUTH WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TWEEKING POPS THIS EVENING. MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED INTO
THE RRV LATE THIS AFTN HAS SINCE WEAKENED AND MOSTLY FALLEN APART
AS IT RAIN INTO DRY AIR OVER NW MN. UPPER LOW WEST OF BISMARCK
WITH SFC LOW IN SIMILAR LOCATION MOVING NORTH AS EXPECTED. BRIEF
CLEARING IN DRY SLOT IN THE ABERDEEN-HURON SD AREA MID AFTN LEAD
TO A NARROW BAND OF T-STORMS SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK TO WEST OF
ABERDEEN AND THESE ARE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW
BUT WITH MUCH MORE STABLE AIR IN SE ND THEY ARE WEAKENING. HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HOURLY PRECIP AND HAS THE REMAINING
SHOWER BAND DRYING UP AS IT MOVES INTO SE ND TOWARD FARGO BY 03Z.
THIS WOULD LEAVE MUCH OF THE RRV/NW AND WCNTRL MN DRY OVERNIGHT.
DID TWEEK POPS TO INDICATE THAT IDEA BUT DID LEAVE IN SOME LOW
POPS PERHAPS A BIT LONGER THAN OTHERWISE WOULD DUE TO
UNCERTAINITIES. BETTER BET FOR SHOWERS IN DVL BASIN SO KEPT HIGHER
POPS THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD FOCUSES ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE 995 MB LOW IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WESTERN SD AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AND INTO SWRN MANITOBA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY ARCS FROM BOTTINEAU TO FARGO AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING PEMBINA BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THIS BAND...PRIMARILY NEAR THE SD BORDER...LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A STORM OR TWO COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS IN THE
FAR SOUTH. ITS LOOKING LIKE MOST OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE IN CENTRAL ND TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT.

TOMORROW...CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR
NORTH AND EAST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POTENT WAVE ENTERS AREA
BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED THUNDER TO THE CWFA BY
THURSDAY PM. GFS DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ITS 12Z SOLN OF THIS
SYSTEM AND USED A BLEND OF THE GEM/EC/NAM WITH ITS 500MB
PLACEMENT...TIMING AND TRACK...ALL OF WHICH BRING THE UPPER LOW TO
THE SD/ND/MN BORDER AREA BY 12Z FRI. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM 850MB
TEMPS REACH INTO THE 5 TO 9C RANGE WITH AND FAVORABLE WARMING SW
SFC WINDS ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND STRONG 925MB CAA. STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NAM SHOWING 40KTS OR
BETTER TO MIX DURING THE DAYTIME. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO MINUS 4C OR
SO WITH 925MB TEMPS NEAR 0C SO WILL LOWER FRIDAY MAX TEMPS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. SHOWERS SLOWLY DEPART WEST TO EAST FRIDAY.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY... NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE PERIOD WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL ALLOW ANY WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN CHC/SLGHT CHC POPS SAT AND SUN WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE GIVING LOW 50S FOR MAX TEMPS. THICKNESSES INCREASE AS THE
NW FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE WEST NW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME AS A RESULT AND SLGHT CHC POPS ARE
LIMITED TO THE EASTERN CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF FAR ERN AREAS SUCH AS BAUDETTE-BEMIDJI-WADENA WHERE VFR CIGS
REMAIN. ISSUES THIS FCST IS AFFECT OF DRY SLOT IN CLEARING OUT THE
MVFR CIGS INTO FARGO AREA OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TVF/GFK AS
WELL. THEN MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO SPREAD BACK IN AS UPPER LOW/SFC LOW
MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
OVERNIGHT IN THE 15 TO 30 KT RANGE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND THEN EVENTUALLY CLOSER TO WEST WED AFTN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 010442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1142 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SFC/500 MB LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF MINOT MOVING NORTH. SHOWERS
MOSTLY CONCENTRATED JUST WEST OF DVL REGION ON EDGE OF FCST AREA
WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN REPORTED OVER FCST AREA (MAINLY
SPRINKLES). DRY SLOT (AT LEAST IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE)
MOVING INTO SE ND AND THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL RRV OVERNIGHT
PER CEILING PROGS FROM LATEST HRRR MODEL. THREAT FOR SHOWERS
DIMINISHING FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY SOUTH WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TWEEKING POPS THIS EVENING. MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED INTO
THE RRV LATE THIS AFTN HAS SINCE WEAKENED AND MOSTLY FALLEN APART
AS IT RAIN INTO DRY AIR OVER NW MN. UPPER LOW WEST OF BISMARCK
WITH SFC LOW IN SIMILAR LOCATION MOVING NORTH AS EXPECTED. BRIEF
CLEARING IN DRY SLOT IN THE ABERDEEN-HURON SD AREA MID AFTN LEAD
TO A NARROW BAND OF T-STORMS SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK TO WEST OF
ABERDEEN AND THESE ARE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW
BUT WITH MUCH MORE STABLE AIR IN SE ND THEY ARE WEAKENING. HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HOURLY PRECIP AND HAS THE REMAINING
SHOWER BAND DRYING UP AS IT MOVES INTO SE ND TOWARD FARGO BY 03Z.
THIS WOULD LEAVE MUCH OF THE RRV/NW AND WCNTRL MN DRY OVERNIGHT.
DID TWEEK POPS TO INDICATE THAT IDEA BUT DID LEAVE IN SOME LOW
POPS PERHAPS A BIT LONGER THAN OTHERWISE WOULD DUE TO
UNCERTAINITIES. BETTER BET FOR SHOWERS IN DVL BASIN SO KEPT HIGHER
POPS THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD FOCUSES ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE 995 MB LOW IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WESTERN SD AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AND INTO SWRN MANITOBA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY ARCS FROM BOTTINEAU TO FARGO AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING PEMBINA BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THIS BAND...PRIMARILY NEAR THE SD BORDER...LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A STORM OR TWO COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS IN THE
FAR SOUTH. ITS LOOKING LIKE MOST OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE IN CENTRAL ND TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT.

TOMORROW...CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR
NORTH AND EAST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POTENT WAVE ENTERS AREA
BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED THUNDER TO THE CWFA BY
THURSDAY PM. GFS DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ITS 12Z SOLN OF THIS
SYSTEM AND USED A BLEND OF THE GEM/EC/NAM WITH ITS 500MB
PLACEMENT...TIMING AND TRACK...ALL OF WHICH BRING THE UPPER LOW TO
THE SD/ND/MN BORDER AREA BY 12Z FRI. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM 850MB
TEMPS REACH INTO THE 5 TO 9C RANGE WITH AND FAVORABLE WARMING SW
SFC WINDS ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND STRONG 925MB CAA. STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NAM SHOWING 40KTS OR
BETTER TO MIX DURING THE DAYTIME. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO MINUS 4C OR
SO WITH 925MB TEMPS NEAR 0C SO WILL LOWER FRIDAY MAX TEMPS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. SHOWERS SLOWLY DEPART WEST TO EAST FRIDAY.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY... NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE PERIOD WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL ALLOW ANY WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN CHC/SLGHT CHC POPS SAT AND SUN WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE GIVING LOW 50S FOR MAX TEMPS. THICKNESSES INCREASE AS THE
NW FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE WEST NW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME AS A RESULT AND SLGHT CHC POPS ARE
LIMITED TO THE EASTERN CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF FAR ERN AREAS SUCH AS BAUDETTE-BEMIDJI-WADENA WHERE VFR CIGS
REMAIN. ISSUES THIS FCST IS AFFECT OF DRY SLOT IN CLEARING OUT THE
MVFR CIGS INTO FARGO AREA OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TVF/GFK AS
WELL. THEN MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO SPREAD BACK IN AS UPPER LOW/SFC LOW
MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
OVERNIGHT IN THE 15 TO 30 KT RANGE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND THEN EVENTUALLY CLOSER TO WEST WED AFTN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 010442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1142 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SFC/500 MB LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF MINOT MOVING NORTH. SHOWERS
MOSTLY CONCENTRATED JUST WEST OF DVL REGION ON EDGE OF FCST AREA
WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN REPORTED OVER FCST AREA (MAINLY
SPRINKLES). DRY SLOT (AT LEAST IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE)
MOVING INTO SE ND AND THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL RRV OVERNIGHT
PER CEILING PROGS FROM LATEST HRRR MODEL. THREAT FOR SHOWERS
DIMINISHING FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY SOUTH WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TWEEKING POPS THIS EVENING. MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED INTO
THE RRV LATE THIS AFTN HAS SINCE WEAKENED AND MOSTLY FALLEN APART
AS IT RAIN INTO DRY AIR OVER NW MN. UPPER LOW WEST OF BISMARCK
WITH SFC LOW IN SIMILAR LOCATION MOVING NORTH AS EXPECTED. BRIEF
CLEARING IN DRY SLOT IN THE ABERDEEN-HURON SD AREA MID AFTN LEAD
TO A NARROW BAND OF T-STORMS SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK TO WEST OF
ABERDEEN AND THESE ARE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW
BUT WITH MUCH MORE STABLE AIR IN SE ND THEY ARE WEAKENING. HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HOURLY PRECIP AND HAS THE REMAINING
SHOWER BAND DRYING UP AS IT MOVES INTO SE ND TOWARD FARGO BY 03Z.
THIS WOULD LEAVE MUCH OF THE RRV/NW AND WCNTRL MN DRY OVERNIGHT.
DID TWEEK POPS TO INDICATE THAT IDEA BUT DID LEAVE IN SOME LOW
POPS PERHAPS A BIT LONGER THAN OTHERWISE WOULD DUE TO
UNCERTAINITIES. BETTER BET FOR SHOWERS IN DVL BASIN SO KEPT HIGHER
POPS THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD FOCUSES ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE 995 MB LOW IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WESTERN SD AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AND INTO SWRN MANITOBA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY ARCS FROM BOTTINEAU TO FARGO AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING PEMBINA BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THIS BAND...PRIMARILY NEAR THE SD BORDER...LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A STORM OR TWO COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS IN THE
FAR SOUTH. ITS LOOKING LIKE MOST OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE IN CENTRAL ND TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT.

TOMORROW...CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR
NORTH AND EAST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POTENT WAVE ENTERS AREA
BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED THUNDER TO THE CWFA BY
THURSDAY PM. GFS DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ITS 12Z SOLN OF THIS
SYSTEM AND USED A BLEND OF THE GEM/EC/NAM WITH ITS 500MB
PLACEMENT...TIMING AND TRACK...ALL OF WHICH BRING THE UPPER LOW TO
THE SD/ND/MN BORDER AREA BY 12Z FRI. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM 850MB
TEMPS REACH INTO THE 5 TO 9C RANGE WITH AND FAVORABLE WARMING SW
SFC WINDS ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND STRONG 925MB CAA. STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NAM SHOWING 40KTS OR
BETTER TO MIX DURING THE DAYTIME. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO MINUS 4C OR
SO WITH 925MB TEMPS NEAR 0C SO WILL LOWER FRIDAY MAX TEMPS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. SHOWERS SLOWLY DEPART WEST TO EAST FRIDAY.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY... NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE PERIOD WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL ALLOW ANY WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN CHC/SLGHT CHC POPS SAT AND SUN WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE GIVING LOW 50S FOR MAX TEMPS. THICKNESSES INCREASE AS THE
NW FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE WEST NW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME AS A RESULT AND SLGHT CHC POPS ARE
LIMITED TO THE EASTERN CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF FAR ERN AREAS SUCH AS BAUDETTE-BEMIDJI-WADENA WHERE VFR CIGS
REMAIN. ISSUES THIS FCST IS AFFECT OF DRY SLOT IN CLEARING OUT THE
MVFR CIGS INTO FARGO AREA OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TVF/GFK AS
WELL. THEN MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO SPREAD BACK IN AS UPPER LOW/SFC LOW
MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
OVERNIGHT IN THE 15 TO 30 KT RANGE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND THEN EVENTUALLY CLOSER TO WEST WED AFTN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KBIS 010155
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
855 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SURFACE LOW HAS SHIFTED INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS
WAY NORTH. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR EVENING UPDATE AS
ONLY LIGHTNING WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER EASTERN MONTANA.
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS
SUGGESTED BY HIGH-RES MODELS SO HAVE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA AS LOW LIFTS ITS WAY INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTH/EAST OF BISMARCK DOWN
TOWARDS ELLENDALE IN AREA THAT HAD SOME CLEARING EARLIER AND IS
NOW BEING FED BY WARMER/MOIST AIR PULLING IN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE LOW. INITIAL STORM PRODUCED A TORNADO JUST OVER THE BORDER
IN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE STRONGER SHEAR IS NOTED. MODEST SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUES...THOUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED IN CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA BETWEEN FAITH...PHILIP AND PIERRE. INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. LATEST 19Z/18Z RAP/HRRR
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR DOES SHOW INCREASING
REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER FROM AROUND HETTINGER TO
SELFRIDGE AND LIFTING NORTH NORTHWEST. THUS THINK THE MESOSCALE
MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT.
WHETHER OR NOT WE GET THE CONVECTION IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. CLOUD
COVER HAS LIMITED INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON THUS MINIMIZING THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...FORCING WITH THE STACKED SYSTEM
MAY YET BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER. IF THAT DOES
OCCUR THE STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND BULK SHEAR WOULD BE ENOUGH
THAT A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR POSSIBLE WEAK TORNADO COULD
OCCUR. THE BEST GUESS FOR PLACEMENT WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE FROM JUST WEST OF THE BISMARCK MANDAN
AREA...EAST TO NEAR JAMESTOWN AND ELLENDALE...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
NORTH AS THE HARVEY AND CARRINGTON AREAS. TIMING IS EXPECTED TO BE
FROM BEGINNING AROUND 21 UTC IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...AND ENDING
AROUND 02 UTC WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE WEST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AND THE COLD AIR PUSHING IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE 12 UTC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A THE LARGE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
00 UTC FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER 00
UTC FRIDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DEVIATE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE 12 UTC
GFS IS BY FAR THE FASTEST WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH...PUSHING ALL PRECIPITATION EAST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY FRIDAY 00 UTC. THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND DEEPEST
OF THE SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION EVEN PLACES A 500 MB CLOSED LOW
OVER NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AT 06 UTC AND HAS WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
LINGERING THROUGH 18 UTC FRIDAY. FOR THE FORECAST HAVE WENT WITH THE
LATEST 12 UTC GEM NHEM WHICH SEEMS TO BE A 50/50 SPLIT OF THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION THAT COMES TRUE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR
WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRIDAY SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW. THE
TRICKY PART WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION COMES
THROUGH ALONG WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THERE COLDEST ACROSS THE
STATE...LOWER 30S TO UPPER 20S. IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM A FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL...PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE. ISOLD TO SCT TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO MID-DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST
LOCATIONS BY AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 010155
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
855 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SURFACE LOW HAS SHIFTED INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS
WAY NORTH. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR EVENING UPDATE AS
ONLY LIGHTNING WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER EASTERN MONTANA.
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS
SUGGESTED BY HIGH-RES MODELS SO HAVE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA AS LOW LIFTS ITS WAY INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTH/EAST OF BISMARCK DOWN
TOWARDS ELLENDALE IN AREA THAT HAD SOME CLEARING EARLIER AND IS
NOW BEING FED BY WARMER/MOIST AIR PULLING IN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE LOW. INITIAL STORM PRODUCED A TORNADO JUST OVER THE BORDER
IN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE STRONGER SHEAR IS NOTED. MODEST SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUES...THOUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED IN CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA BETWEEN FAITH...PHILIP AND PIERRE. INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. LATEST 19Z/18Z RAP/HRRR
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR DOES SHOW INCREASING
REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER FROM AROUND HETTINGER TO
SELFRIDGE AND LIFTING NORTH NORTHWEST. THUS THINK THE MESOSCALE
MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT.
WHETHER OR NOT WE GET THE CONVECTION IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. CLOUD
COVER HAS LIMITED INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON THUS MINIMIZING THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...FORCING WITH THE STACKED SYSTEM
MAY YET BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER. IF THAT DOES
OCCUR THE STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND BULK SHEAR WOULD BE ENOUGH
THAT A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR POSSIBLE WEAK TORNADO COULD
OCCUR. THE BEST GUESS FOR PLACEMENT WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE FROM JUST WEST OF THE BISMARCK MANDAN
AREA...EAST TO NEAR JAMESTOWN AND ELLENDALE...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
NORTH AS THE HARVEY AND CARRINGTON AREAS. TIMING IS EXPECTED TO BE
FROM BEGINNING AROUND 21 UTC IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...AND ENDING
AROUND 02 UTC WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE WEST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AND THE COLD AIR PUSHING IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE 12 UTC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A THE LARGE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
00 UTC FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER 00
UTC FRIDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DEVIATE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE 12 UTC
GFS IS BY FAR THE FASTEST WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH...PUSHING ALL PRECIPITATION EAST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY FRIDAY 00 UTC. THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND DEEPEST
OF THE SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION EVEN PLACES A 500 MB CLOSED LOW
OVER NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AT 06 UTC AND HAS WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
LINGERING THROUGH 18 UTC FRIDAY. FOR THE FORECAST HAVE WENT WITH THE
LATEST 12 UTC GEM NHEM WHICH SEEMS TO BE A 50/50 SPLIT OF THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION THAT COMES TRUE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR
WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRIDAY SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW. THE
TRICKY PART WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION COMES
THROUGH ALONG WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THERE COLDEST ACROSS THE
STATE...LOWER 30S TO UPPER 20S. IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM A FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL...PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE. ISOLD TO SCT TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO MID-DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST
LOCATIONS BY AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 010155
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
855 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SURFACE LOW HAS SHIFTED INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS
WAY NORTH. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR EVENING UPDATE AS
ONLY LIGHTNING WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER EASTERN MONTANA.
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS
SUGGESTED BY HIGH-RES MODELS SO HAVE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA AS LOW LIFTS ITS WAY INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTH/EAST OF BISMARCK DOWN
TOWARDS ELLENDALE IN AREA THAT HAD SOME CLEARING EARLIER AND IS
NOW BEING FED BY WARMER/MOIST AIR PULLING IN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE LOW. INITIAL STORM PRODUCED A TORNADO JUST OVER THE BORDER
IN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE STRONGER SHEAR IS NOTED. MODEST SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUES...THOUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED IN CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA BETWEEN FAITH...PHILIP AND PIERRE. INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. LATEST 19Z/18Z RAP/HRRR
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR DOES SHOW INCREASING
REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER FROM AROUND HETTINGER TO
SELFRIDGE AND LIFTING NORTH NORTHWEST. THUS THINK THE MESOSCALE
MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT.
WHETHER OR NOT WE GET THE CONVECTION IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. CLOUD
COVER HAS LIMITED INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON THUS MINIMIZING THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...FORCING WITH THE STACKED SYSTEM
MAY YET BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER. IF THAT DOES
OCCUR THE STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND BULK SHEAR WOULD BE ENOUGH
THAT A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR POSSIBLE WEAK TORNADO COULD
OCCUR. THE BEST GUESS FOR PLACEMENT WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE FROM JUST WEST OF THE BISMARCK MANDAN
AREA...EAST TO NEAR JAMESTOWN AND ELLENDALE...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
NORTH AS THE HARVEY AND CARRINGTON AREAS. TIMING IS EXPECTED TO BE
FROM BEGINNING AROUND 21 UTC IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...AND ENDING
AROUND 02 UTC WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE WEST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AND THE COLD AIR PUSHING IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE 12 UTC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A THE LARGE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
00 UTC FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER 00
UTC FRIDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DEVIATE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE 12 UTC
GFS IS BY FAR THE FASTEST WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH...PUSHING ALL PRECIPITATION EAST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY FRIDAY 00 UTC. THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND DEEPEST
OF THE SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION EVEN PLACES A 500 MB CLOSED LOW
OVER NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AT 06 UTC AND HAS WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
LINGERING THROUGH 18 UTC FRIDAY. FOR THE FORECAST HAVE WENT WITH THE
LATEST 12 UTC GEM NHEM WHICH SEEMS TO BE A 50/50 SPLIT OF THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION THAT COMES TRUE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR
WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRIDAY SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW. THE
TRICKY PART WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION COMES
THROUGH ALONG WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THERE COLDEST ACROSS THE
STATE...LOWER 30S TO UPPER 20S. IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM A FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL...PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE. ISOLD TO SCT TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO MID-DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST
LOCATIONS BY AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 010155
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
855 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SURFACE LOW HAS SHIFTED INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS
WAY NORTH. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR EVENING UPDATE AS
ONLY LIGHTNING WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER EASTERN MONTANA.
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS
SUGGESTED BY HIGH-RES MODELS SO HAVE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA AS LOW LIFTS ITS WAY INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTH/EAST OF BISMARCK DOWN
TOWARDS ELLENDALE IN AREA THAT HAD SOME CLEARING EARLIER AND IS
NOW BEING FED BY WARMER/MOIST AIR PULLING IN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE LOW. INITIAL STORM PRODUCED A TORNADO JUST OVER THE BORDER
IN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE STRONGER SHEAR IS NOTED. MODEST SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUES...THOUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED IN CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA BETWEEN FAITH...PHILIP AND PIERRE. INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. LATEST 19Z/18Z RAP/HRRR
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR DOES SHOW INCREASING
REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER FROM AROUND HETTINGER TO
SELFRIDGE AND LIFTING NORTH NORTHWEST. THUS THINK THE MESOSCALE
MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT.
WHETHER OR NOT WE GET THE CONVECTION IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. CLOUD
COVER HAS LIMITED INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON THUS MINIMIZING THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...FORCING WITH THE STACKED SYSTEM
MAY YET BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER. IF THAT DOES
OCCUR THE STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND BULK SHEAR WOULD BE ENOUGH
THAT A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR POSSIBLE WEAK TORNADO COULD
OCCUR. THE BEST GUESS FOR PLACEMENT WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE FROM JUST WEST OF THE BISMARCK MANDAN
AREA...EAST TO NEAR JAMESTOWN AND ELLENDALE...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
NORTH AS THE HARVEY AND CARRINGTON AREAS. TIMING IS EXPECTED TO BE
FROM BEGINNING AROUND 21 UTC IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...AND ENDING
AROUND 02 UTC WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE WEST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AND THE COLD AIR PUSHING IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE 12 UTC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A THE LARGE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
00 UTC FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER 00
UTC FRIDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DEVIATE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE 12 UTC
GFS IS BY FAR THE FASTEST WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH...PUSHING ALL PRECIPITATION EAST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY FRIDAY 00 UTC. THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND DEEPEST
OF THE SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION EVEN PLACES A 500 MB CLOSED LOW
OVER NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AT 06 UTC AND HAS WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
LINGERING THROUGH 18 UTC FRIDAY. FOR THE FORECAST HAVE WENT WITH THE
LATEST 12 UTC GEM NHEM WHICH SEEMS TO BE A 50/50 SPLIT OF THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION THAT COMES TRUE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR
WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRIDAY SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW. THE
TRICKY PART WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION COMES
THROUGH ALONG WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THERE COLDEST ACROSS THE
STATE...LOWER 30S TO UPPER 20S. IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM A FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL...PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE. ISOLD TO SCT TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO MID-DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST
LOCATIONS BY AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 010022
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
722 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TWEEKING POPS THIS EVENING. MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED INTO
THE RRV LATE THIS AFTN HAS SINCE WEAKENED AND MOSTLY FALLEN APART
AS IT RAIN INTO DRY AIR OVER NW MN. UPPER LOW WEST OF BISMARCK
WITH SFC LOW IN SIMILAR LOCATION MOVING NORTH AS EXPECTED. BRIEF
CLEARING IN DRY SLOT IN THE ABERDEEN-HURON SD AREA MID AFTN LEAD
TO A NARROW BAND OF T-STORMS SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK TO WEST OF
ABERDEEN AND THESE ARE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW
BUT WITH MUCH MORE STABLE AIR IN SE ND THEY ARE WEAKENING. HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HOURLY PRECIP AND HAS THE REMAINING
SHOWER BAND DRYING UP AS IT MOVES INTO SE ND TOWARD FARGO BY 03Z.
THIS WOULD LEAVE MUCH OF THE RRV/NW AND WCNTRL MN DRY OVERNIGHT.
DID TWEEK POPS TO INDICATE THAT IDEA BUT DID LEAVE IN SOME LOW
POPS PERHAPS A BIT LONGER THAN OTHERWISE WOULD DUE TO
UNCERTAINITIES. BETTER BET FOR SHOWERS IN DVL BASIN SO KEPT HIGHER
POPS THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD FOCUSES ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE 995 MB LOW IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WESTERN SD AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AND INTO SWRN MANITOBA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY ARCS FROM BOTTINEAU TO FARGO AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING PEMBINA BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THIS BAND...PRIMARILY NEAR THE SD BORDER...LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A STORM OR TWO COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS IN THE
FAR SOUTH. ITS LOOKING LIKE MOST OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE IN CENTRAL ND TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT.

TOMORROW...CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR
NORTH AND EAST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POTENT WAVE ENTERS AREA
BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED THUNDER TO THE CWFA BY
THURSDAY PM. GFS DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ITS 12Z SOLN OF THIS
SYSTEM AND USED A BLEND OF THE GEM/EC/NAM WITH ITS 500MB
PLACEMENT...TIMING AND TRACK...ALL OF WHICH BRING THE UPPER LOW TO
THE SD/ND/MN BORDER AREA BY 12Z FRI. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM 850MB
TEMPS REACH INTO THE 5 TO 9C RANGE WITH AND FAVORABLE WARMING SW
SFC WINDS ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND STRONG 925MB CAA. STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NAM SHOWING 40KTS OR
BETTER TO MIX DURING THE DAYTIME. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO MINUS 4C OR
SO WITH 925MB TEMPS NEAR 0C SO WILL LOWER FRIDAY MAX TEMPS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. SHOWERS SLOWLY DEPART WEST TO EAST FRIDAY.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY... NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE PERIOD WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL ALLOW ANY WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN CHC/SLGHT CHC POPS SAT AND SUN WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE GIVING LOW 50S FOR MAX TEMPS. THICKNESSES INCREASE AS THE
NW FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE WEST NW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME AS A RESULT AND SLGHT CHC POPS ARE
LIMITED TO THE EASTERN CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MVFR/IFR CIGS IN DVL BASIN INTO CNTRL ND JUST EAST OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL CONTINUE...WHILE MOSTLY VFR CIGS IN THE RRV INTO NW MN
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. SOME CIGS MAY LOWER IN THE
RRV OVERNIGHT AND ESP TOWARD 12Z AS A BIT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
SWINGS BACK AROUND THE UPPER LOW. INDICATED THAT IN THE TAFS.
WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST GUSTY AT TIMES STILL TONIGHT THEN TURNING A
BIT MORE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY STILL GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 010022
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
722 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TWEEKING POPS THIS EVENING. MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED INTO
THE RRV LATE THIS AFTN HAS SINCE WEAKENED AND MOSTLY FALLEN APART
AS IT RAIN INTO DRY AIR OVER NW MN. UPPER LOW WEST OF BISMARCK
WITH SFC LOW IN SIMILAR LOCATION MOVING NORTH AS EXPECTED. BRIEF
CLEARING IN DRY SLOT IN THE ABERDEEN-HURON SD AREA MID AFTN LEAD
TO A NARROW BAND OF T-STORMS SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK TO WEST OF
ABERDEEN AND THESE ARE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW
BUT WITH MUCH MORE STABLE AIR IN SE ND THEY ARE WEAKENING. HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HOURLY PRECIP AND HAS THE REMAINING
SHOWER BAND DRYING UP AS IT MOVES INTO SE ND TOWARD FARGO BY 03Z.
THIS WOULD LEAVE MUCH OF THE RRV/NW AND WCNTRL MN DRY OVERNIGHT.
DID TWEEK POPS TO INDICATE THAT IDEA BUT DID LEAVE IN SOME LOW
POPS PERHAPS A BIT LONGER THAN OTHERWISE WOULD DUE TO
UNCERTAINITIES. BETTER BET FOR SHOWERS IN DVL BASIN SO KEPT HIGHER
POPS THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD FOCUSES ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE 995 MB LOW IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WESTERN SD AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AND INTO SWRN MANITOBA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY ARCS FROM BOTTINEAU TO FARGO AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING PEMBINA BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THIS BAND...PRIMARILY NEAR THE SD BORDER...LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A STORM OR TWO COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS IN THE
FAR SOUTH. ITS LOOKING LIKE MOST OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE IN CENTRAL ND TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT.

TOMORROW...CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR
NORTH AND EAST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POTENT WAVE ENTERS AREA
BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED THUNDER TO THE CWFA BY
THURSDAY PM. GFS DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ITS 12Z SOLN OF THIS
SYSTEM AND USED A BLEND OF THE GEM/EC/NAM WITH ITS 500MB
PLACEMENT...TIMING AND TRACK...ALL OF WHICH BRING THE UPPER LOW TO
THE SD/ND/MN BORDER AREA BY 12Z FRI. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM 850MB
TEMPS REACH INTO THE 5 TO 9C RANGE WITH AND FAVORABLE WARMING SW
SFC WINDS ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND STRONG 925MB CAA. STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NAM SHOWING 40KTS OR
BETTER TO MIX DURING THE DAYTIME. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO MINUS 4C OR
SO WITH 925MB TEMPS NEAR 0C SO WILL LOWER FRIDAY MAX TEMPS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. SHOWERS SLOWLY DEPART WEST TO EAST FRIDAY.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY... NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE PERIOD WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL ALLOW ANY WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN CHC/SLGHT CHC POPS SAT AND SUN WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE GIVING LOW 50S FOR MAX TEMPS. THICKNESSES INCREASE AS THE
NW FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE WEST NW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME AS A RESULT AND SLGHT CHC POPS ARE
LIMITED TO THE EASTERN CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MVFR/IFR CIGS IN DVL BASIN INTO CNTRL ND JUST EAST OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL CONTINUE...WHILE MOSTLY VFR CIGS IN THE RRV INTO NW MN
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. SOME CIGS MAY LOWER IN THE
RRV OVERNIGHT AND ESP TOWARD 12Z AS A BIT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
SWINGS BACK AROUND THE UPPER LOW. INDICATED THAT IN THE TAFS.
WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST GUSTY AT TIMES STILL TONIGHT THEN TURNING A
BIT MORE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY STILL GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KBIS 302313
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
613 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA AS LOW LIFTS ITS WAY INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTH/EAST OF BISMARCK DOWN
TOWARDS ELLENDALE IN AREA THAT HAD SOME CLEARING EARLIER AND IS
NOW BEING FED BY WARMER/MOIST AIR PULLING IN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE LOW. INITIAL STORM PRODUCED A TORNADO JUST OVER THE BORDER
IN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE STRONGER SHEAR IS NOTED. MODEST SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUES...THOUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED IN CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA BETWEEN FAITH...PHILIP AND PIERRE. INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. LATEST 19Z/18Z RAP/HRRR
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR DOES SHOW INCREASING
REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER FROM AROUND HETTINGER TO
SELFRIDGE AND LIFTING NORTH NORTHWEST. THUS THINK THE MESOSCALE
MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT.
WHETHER OR NOT WE GET THE CONVECTION IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. CLOUD
COVER HAS LIMITED INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON THUS MINIMIZING THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...FORCING WITH THE STACKED SYSTEM
MAY YET BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER. IF THAT DOES
OCCUR THE STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND BULK SHEAR WOULD BE ENOUGH
THAT A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR POSSIBLE WEAK TORNADO COULD
OCCUR. THE BEST GUESS FOR PLACEMENT WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE FROM JUST WEST OF THE BISMARCK MANDAN
AREA...EAST TO NEAR JAMESTOWN AND ELLENDALE...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
NORTH AS THE HARVEY AND CARRINGTON AREAS. TIMING IS EXPECTED TO BE
FROM BEGINNING AROUND 21 UTC IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...AND ENDING
AROUND 02 UTC WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE WEST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AND THE COLD AIR PUSHING IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE 12 UTC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A THE LARGE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
00 UTC FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER 00
UTC FRIDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DEVIATE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE 12 UTC
GFS IS BY FAR THE FASTEST WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH...PUSHING ALL PRECIPITATION EAST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY FRIDAY 00 UTC. THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND DEEPEST
OF THE SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION EVEN PLACES A 500 MB CLOSED LOW
OVER NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AT 06 UTC AND HAS WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
LINGERING THROUGH 18 UTC FRIDAY. FOR THE FORECAST HAVE WENT WITH THE
LATEST 12 UTC GEM NHEM WHICH SEEMS TO BE A 50/50 SPLIT OF THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION THAT COMES TRUE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR
WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRIDAY SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW. THE
TRICKY PART WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION COMES
THROUGH ALONG WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THERE COLDEST ACROSS THE
STATE...LOWER 30S TO UPPER 20S. IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM A FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL...PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE. ISOLD TO SCT TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO MID-DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST
LOCATIONS BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 302313
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
613 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA AS LOW LIFTS ITS WAY INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTH/EAST OF BISMARCK DOWN
TOWARDS ELLENDALE IN AREA THAT HAD SOME CLEARING EARLIER AND IS
NOW BEING FED BY WARMER/MOIST AIR PULLING IN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE LOW. INITIAL STORM PRODUCED A TORNADO JUST OVER THE BORDER
IN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE STRONGER SHEAR IS NOTED. MODEST SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUES...THOUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED IN CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA BETWEEN FAITH...PHILIP AND PIERRE. INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. LATEST 19Z/18Z RAP/HRRR
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR DOES SHOW INCREASING
REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER FROM AROUND HETTINGER TO
SELFRIDGE AND LIFTING NORTH NORTHWEST. THUS THINK THE MESOSCALE
MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT.
WHETHER OR NOT WE GET THE CONVECTION IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. CLOUD
COVER HAS LIMITED INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON THUS MINIMIZING THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...FORCING WITH THE STACKED SYSTEM
MAY YET BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER. IF THAT DOES
OCCUR THE STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND BULK SHEAR WOULD BE ENOUGH
THAT A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR POSSIBLE WEAK TORNADO COULD
OCCUR. THE BEST GUESS FOR PLACEMENT WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE FROM JUST WEST OF THE BISMARCK MANDAN
AREA...EAST TO NEAR JAMESTOWN AND ELLENDALE...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
NORTH AS THE HARVEY AND CARRINGTON AREAS. TIMING IS EXPECTED TO BE
FROM BEGINNING AROUND 21 UTC IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...AND ENDING
AROUND 02 UTC WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE WEST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AND THE COLD AIR PUSHING IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE 12 UTC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A THE LARGE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
00 UTC FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER 00
UTC FRIDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DEVIATE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE 12 UTC
GFS IS BY FAR THE FASTEST WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH...PUSHING ALL PRECIPITATION EAST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY FRIDAY 00 UTC. THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND DEEPEST
OF THE SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION EVEN PLACES A 500 MB CLOSED LOW
OVER NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AT 06 UTC AND HAS WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
LINGERING THROUGH 18 UTC FRIDAY. FOR THE FORECAST HAVE WENT WITH THE
LATEST 12 UTC GEM NHEM WHICH SEEMS TO BE A 50/50 SPLIT OF THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION THAT COMES TRUE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR
WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRIDAY SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW. THE
TRICKY PART WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION COMES
THROUGH ALONG WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THERE COLDEST ACROSS THE
STATE...LOWER 30S TO UPPER 20S. IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM A FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL...PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE. ISOLD TO SCT TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO MID-DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST
LOCATIONS BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 302313
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
613 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA AS LOW LIFTS ITS WAY INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTH/EAST OF BISMARCK DOWN
TOWARDS ELLENDALE IN AREA THAT HAD SOME CLEARING EARLIER AND IS
NOW BEING FED BY WARMER/MOIST AIR PULLING IN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE LOW. INITIAL STORM PRODUCED A TORNADO JUST OVER THE BORDER
IN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE STRONGER SHEAR IS NOTED. MODEST SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUES...THOUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED IN CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA BETWEEN FAITH...PHILIP AND PIERRE. INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. LATEST 19Z/18Z RAP/HRRR
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR DOES SHOW INCREASING
REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER FROM AROUND HETTINGER TO
SELFRIDGE AND LIFTING NORTH NORTHWEST. THUS THINK THE MESOSCALE
MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT.
WHETHER OR NOT WE GET THE CONVECTION IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. CLOUD
COVER HAS LIMITED INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON THUS MINIMIZING THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...FORCING WITH THE STACKED SYSTEM
MAY YET BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER. IF THAT DOES
OCCUR THE STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND BULK SHEAR WOULD BE ENOUGH
THAT A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR POSSIBLE WEAK TORNADO COULD
OCCUR. THE BEST GUESS FOR PLACEMENT WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE FROM JUST WEST OF THE BISMARCK MANDAN
AREA...EAST TO NEAR JAMESTOWN AND ELLENDALE...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
NORTH AS THE HARVEY AND CARRINGTON AREAS. TIMING IS EXPECTED TO BE
FROM BEGINNING AROUND 21 UTC IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...AND ENDING
AROUND 02 UTC WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE WEST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AND THE COLD AIR PUSHING IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE 12 UTC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A THE LARGE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
00 UTC FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER 00
UTC FRIDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DEVIATE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE 12 UTC
GFS IS BY FAR THE FASTEST WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH...PUSHING ALL PRECIPITATION EAST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY FRIDAY 00 UTC. THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND DEEPEST
OF THE SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION EVEN PLACES A 500 MB CLOSED LOW
OVER NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AT 06 UTC AND HAS WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
LINGERING THROUGH 18 UTC FRIDAY. FOR THE FORECAST HAVE WENT WITH THE
LATEST 12 UTC GEM NHEM WHICH SEEMS TO BE A 50/50 SPLIT OF THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION THAT COMES TRUE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR
WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRIDAY SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW. THE
TRICKY PART WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION COMES
THROUGH ALONG WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THERE COLDEST ACROSS THE
STATE...LOWER 30S TO UPPER 20S. IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM A FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL...PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE. ISOLD TO SCT TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO MID-DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST
LOCATIONS BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 302313
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
613 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA AS LOW LIFTS ITS WAY INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTH/EAST OF BISMARCK DOWN
TOWARDS ELLENDALE IN AREA THAT HAD SOME CLEARING EARLIER AND IS
NOW BEING FED BY WARMER/MOIST AIR PULLING IN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE LOW. INITIAL STORM PRODUCED A TORNADO JUST OVER THE BORDER
IN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE STRONGER SHEAR IS NOTED. MODEST SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUES...THOUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED IN CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA BETWEEN FAITH...PHILIP AND PIERRE. INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. LATEST 19Z/18Z RAP/HRRR
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR DOES SHOW INCREASING
REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER FROM AROUND HETTINGER TO
SELFRIDGE AND LIFTING NORTH NORTHWEST. THUS THINK THE MESOSCALE
MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT.
WHETHER OR NOT WE GET THE CONVECTION IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. CLOUD
COVER HAS LIMITED INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON THUS MINIMIZING THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...FORCING WITH THE STACKED SYSTEM
MAY YET BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER. IF THAT DOES
OCCUR THE STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND BULK SHEAR WOULD BE ENOUGH
THAT A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR POSSIBLE WEAK TORNADO COULD
OCCUR. THE BEST GUESS FOR PLACEMENT WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE FROM JUST WEST OF THE BISMARCK MANDAN
AREA...EAST TO NEAR JAMESTOWN AND ELLENDALE...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
NORTH AS THE HARVEY AND CARRINGTON AREAS. TIMING IS EXPECTED TO BE
FROM BEGINNING AROUND 21 UTC IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...AND ENDING
AROUND 02 UTC WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE WEST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AND THE COLD AIR PUSHING IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE 12 UTC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A THE LARGE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
00 UTC FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER 00
UTC FRIDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DEVIATE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE 12 UTC
GFS IS BY FAR THE FASTEST WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH...PUSHING ALL PRECIPITATION EAST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY FRIDAY 00 UTC. THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND DEEPEST
OF THE SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION EVEN PLACES A 500 MB CLOSED LOW
OVER NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AT 06 UTC AND HAS WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
LINGERING THROUGH 18 UTC FRIDAY. FOR THE FORECAST HAVE WENT WITH THE
LATEST 12 UTC GEM NHEM WHICH SEEMS TO BE A 50/50 SPLIT OF THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION THAT COMES TRUE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR
WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRIDAY SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW. THE
TRICKY PART WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION COMES
THROUGH ALONG WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THERE COLDEST ACROSS THE
STATE...LOWER 30S TO UPPER 20S. IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM A FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL...PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE. ISOLD TO SCT TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO MID-DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST
LOCATIONS BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 302038
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
338 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED IN CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA BETWEEN FAITH...PHILIP AND PIERRE. INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. LATEST 19Z/18Z RAP/HRRR
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR DOES SHOW INCREASING
REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER FROM AROUND HETTINGER TO
SELFRIDGE AND LIFTING NORTH NORTHWEST. THUS THINK THE MESOSCALE
MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT.
WHETHER OR NOT WE GET THE CONVECTION IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. CLOUD
COVER HAS LIMITED INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON THUS MINIMIZING THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...FORCING WITH THE STACKED SYSTEM
MAY YET BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER. IF THAT DOES
OCCUR THE STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND BULK SHEAR WOULD BE ENOUGH
THAT A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR POSSIBLE WEAK TORNADO COULD
OCCUR. THE BEST GUESS FOR PLACEMENT WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE FROM JUST WEST OF THE BISMARCK MANDAN
AREA...EAST TO NEAR JAMESTOWN AND ELLENDALE...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
NORTH AS THE HARVEY AND CARRINGTON AREAS. TIMING IS EXPECTED TO BE
FROM BEGINNING AROUND 21 UTC IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...AND ENDING
AROUND 02 UTC WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE WEST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AND THE COLD AIR PUSHING IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE 12 UTC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A THE LARGE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
00 UTC FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER 00
UTC FRIDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DEVIATE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE 12 UTC
GFS IS BY FAR THE FASTEST WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH...PUSHING ALL PRECIPITATION EAST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY FRIDAY 00 UTC. THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND DEEPEST
OF THE SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION EVEN PLACES A 500 MB CLOSED LOW
OVER NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AT 06 UTC AND HAS WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
LINGERING THROUGH 18 UTC FRIDAY. FOR THE FORECAST HAVE WENT WITH THE
LATEST 12 UTC GEM NHEM WHICH SEEMS TO BE A 50/50 SPLIT OF THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION THAT COMES TRUE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR
WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRIDAY SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW. THE
TRICKY PART WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION COMES
THROUGH ALONG WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THERE COLDEST ACROSS THE
STATE...LOWER 30S TO UPPER 20S. IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM A FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL...PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL BY MID AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTH
NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE AS THE SURFACE LIFTS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DO
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TWH









000
FXUS63 KFGF 302031
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD FOCUSES ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE 995 MB LOW IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WESTERN SD AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AND INTO SWRN MANITOBA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY ARCS FROM BOTTINEAU TO FARGO AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING PEMBINA BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THIS BAND...PRIMARILY NEAR THE SD BORDER...LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A STORM OR TWO COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS IN THE
FAR SOUTH. ITS LOOKING LIKE MOST OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE IN CENTRAL ND TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT.

TOMORROW...CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR
NORTH AND EAST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POTENT WAVE ENTERS AREA
BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED THUNDER TO THE CWFA BY
THURSDAY PM. GFS DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ITS 12Z SOLN OF THIS
SYSTEM AND USED A BLEND OF THE GEM/EC/NAM WITH ITS 500MB
PLACEMENT...TIMING AND TRACK...ALL OF WHICH BRING THE UPPER LOW TO
THE SD/ND/MN BORDER AREA BY 12Z FRI. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM 850MB
TEMPS REACH INTO THE 5 TO 9C RANGE WITH AND FAVORABLE WARMING SW
SFC WINDS ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND STRONG 925MB CAA. STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NAM SHOWING 40KTS OR
BETTER TO MIX DURING THE DAYTIME. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO MINUS 4C OR
SO WITH 925MB TEMPS NEAR 0C SO WILL LOWER FRIDAY MAX TEMPS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. SHOWERS SLOWLY DEPART WEST TO EAST FRIDAY.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY... NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE PERIOD WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL ALLOW ANY WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN CHC/SLGHT CHC POPS SAT AND SUN WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE GIVING LOW 50S FOR MAX TEMPS. THICKNESSES INCREASE AS THE
NW FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE WEST NW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME AS A RESULT AND SLGHT CHC POPS ARE
LIMITED TO THE EASTERN CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

IFR CIGS HAVE CLEARED OUT AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT DVL...WHICH WILL
SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR BY MID AFTN. BAND OF SHOWERS
MOVING NORTH TOWARDS DVL AND FAR ARE WEAKENING. POSSIBLE VCSH WITH
MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN WITH REDEVELOPMENT OR LINGERING CLOUD DECK AT
DVL AND FAR. SE WINDS 15 TO 20KTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 25 TO 30KTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL DAKOTAS. SHOWERS POSSIBLY IMBEDDED WITH
THUNDER EXPECTED LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MOST CERTAIN AT DVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 302031
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD FOCUSES ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE 995 MB LOW IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WESTERN SD AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AND INTO SWRN MANITOBA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY ARCS FROM BOTTINEAU TO FARGO AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING PEMBINA BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THIS BAND...PRIMARILY NEAR THE SD BORDER...LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A STORM OR TWO COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS IN THE
FAR SOUTH. ITS LOOKING LIKE MOST OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE IN CENTRAL ND TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT.

TOMORROW...CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR
NORTH AND EAST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POTENT WAVE ENTERS AREA
BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED THUNDER TO THE CWFA BY
THURSDAY PM. GFS DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ITS 12Z SOLN OF THIS
SYSTEM AND USED A BLEND OF THE GEM/EC/NAM WITH ITS 500MB
PLACEMENT...TIMING AND TRACK...ALL OF WHICH BRING THE UPPER LOW TO
THE SD/ND/MN BORDER AREA BY 12Z FRI. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM 850MB
TEMPS REACH INTO THE 5 TO 9C RANGE WITH AND FAVORABLE WARMING SW
SFC WINDS ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND STRONG 925MB CAA. STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NAM SHOWING 40KTS OR
BETTER TO MIX DURING THE DAYTIME. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO MINUS 4C OR
SO WITH 925MB TEMPS NEAR 0C SO WILL LOWER FRIDAY MAX TEMPS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. SHOWERS SLOWLY DEPART WEST TO EAST FRIDAY.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY... NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE PERIOD WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL ALLOW ANY WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN CHC/SLGHT CHC POPS SAT AND SUN WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE GIVING LOW 50S FOR MAX TEMPS. THICKNESSES INCREASE AS THE
NW FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE WEST NW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME AS A RESULT AND SLGHT CHC POPS ARE
LIMITED TO THE EASTERN CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

IFR CIGS HAVE CLEARED OUT AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT DVL...WHICH WILL
SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR BY MID AFTN. BAND OF SHOWERS
MOVING NORTH TOWARDS DVL AND FAR ARE WEAKENING. POSSIBLE VCSH WITH
MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN WITH REDEVELOPMENT OR LINGERING CLOUD DECK AT
DVL AND FAR. SE WINDS 15 TO 20KTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 25 TO 30KTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL DAKOTAS. SHOWERS POSSIBLY IMBEDDED WITH
THUNDER EXPECTED LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MOST CERTAIN AT DVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK






000
FXUS63 KBIS 301754
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1254 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND
15 UTC HRRR TRYING TO CONVEY THE ANTICIPATED BREAKS IN ACTIVITY
BETWEEN THE CURRENT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ND
AT THIS TIME...AND THE NEXT WAVE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL BY MID AFTERNOON. DID ADD A MENTION OF SEVERE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL 21-00 UTC ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SHEAR AND
LOW LEVEL HELICITY. THE LATEST HRRR IS NOT A STRONG WITH LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY CONVECTION OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. STRONG STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT INTO NORTH
DAKOTA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VERY STRONG SHEAR/LOW
LEVEL HELICITY WILL EXIST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AROUND 20/21Z
AND LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM THERE WILL
BE A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE FROM AROUND THE MISSOURI RIVER EAST INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...DUE TO THE
EXPECTED FAST STORM MOTION...AND WEAK TORNADOES DUE TO THE STRONG
SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY. WILL FRESHEN UP PRODUCTS INCLUDING
THE HWO WITH LATEST THINKING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WELL DEFINED CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR RAPID CITY IS LIFTING
NORTH. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. CURRENT TRENDS HAVE THE RAIN
ARRIVING IN BISMARCK AROUND 9 AM CDT. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
FOR THIS. ALSO FOG NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER THOUGHT. CONFINED
THE FOG MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENTLY...A LARGE SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER
THE WESTERN NE/SD BORDER. THIS STACKED SYSTEM WAS NEAR THE BASE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY
DAYBREAK TODAY. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.

AFTER DAYBREAK THE THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY EXITING
INTO MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND WITH SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM - INCLUDING WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY - POINT TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE...WHERE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA CAN EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH...WITH 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO MANITOBA.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AFTER THE SHORT TERM UPPER LOW KICKS OUT THERE IS A SECOND
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION AND GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE IS AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. THE WEEKEND GENERALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
BROAD RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STILL DO NOT SEE A HARD FREEZE FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT SEEN ONE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL BY MID AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTH
NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE AS THE SURFACE LIFTS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DO
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KFGF 301752
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON LATEST MODELS AND TRENDS. TWEAKED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SKY COVER PRIMARILY. STILL EXPECT
SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE
SOUTH...WHERE A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH SEVERE
LIMITS. BEST SEVERE PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE FURTHER SOUTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRESHENED UP FORECAST FOR WINDS AND CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ND SIDE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ERODING ON THE MN
SIDE. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE TODAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA. LATEST MODELS ARE A LITTLE DRIER TODAY ACROSS THE
AREA. MAY NEED TO MODIFY PRECIP FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS AND UPCOMING MODEL RUNS FOR DIRECTION ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EASTERN SD AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ND. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

IFR CIGS HAVE CLEARED OUT AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT DVL...WHICH WILL
SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR BY MID AFTN. BAND OF SHOWERS
MOVING NORTH TOWARDS DVL AND FAR ARE WEAKENING. POSSIBLE VCSH WITH
MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN WITH REDEVELOPMENT OR LINGERING CLOUD DECK AT
DVL AND FAR. SE WINDS 15 TO 20KTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 25 TO 30KTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL DAKOTAS. SHOWERS POSSIBLY IMBEDDED WITH
THUNDER EXPECTED LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MOST CERTAIN AT DVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...JK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 301752
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON LATEST MODELS AND TRENDS. TWEAKED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SKY COVER PRIMARILY. STILL EXPECT
SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE
SOUTH...WHERE A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH SEVERE
LIMITS. BEST SEVERE PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE FURTHER SOUTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRESHENED UP FORECAST FOR WINDS AND CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ND SIDE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ERODING ON THE MN
SIDE. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE TODAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA. LATEST MODELS ARE A LITTLE DRIER TODAY ACROSS THE
AREA. MAY NEED TO MODIFY PRECIP FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS AND UPCOMING MODEL RUNS FOR DIRECTION ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EASTERN SD AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ND. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

IFR CIGS HAVE CLEARED OUT AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT DVL...WHICH WILL
SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR BY MID AFTN. BAND OF SHOWERS
MOVING NORTH TOWARDS DVL AND FAR ARE WEAKENING. POSSIBLE VCSH WITH
MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN WITH REDEVELOPMENT OR LINGERING CLOUD DECK AT
DVL AND FAR. SE WINDS 15 TO 20KTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 25 TO 30KTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL DAKOTAS. SHOWERS POSSIBLY IMBEDDED WITH
THUNDER EXPECTED LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MOST CERTAIN AT DVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...JK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 301752
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON LATEST MODELS AND TRENDS. TWEAKED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SKY COVER PRIMARILY. STILL EXPECT
SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE
SOUTH...WHERE A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH SEVERE
LIMITS. BEST SEVERE PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE FURTHER SOUTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRESHENED UP FORECAST FOR WINDS AND CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ND SIDE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ERODING ON THE MN
SIDE. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE TODAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA. LATEST MODELS ARE A LITTLE DRIER TODAY ACROSS THE
AREA. MAY NEED TO MODIFY PRECIP FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS AND UPCOMING MODEL RUNS FOR DIRECTION ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EASTERN SD AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ND. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

IFR CIGS HAVE CLEARED OUT AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT DVL...WHICH WILL
SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR BY MID AFTN. BAND OF SHOWERS
MOVING NORTH TOWARDS DVL AND FAR ARE WEAKENING. POSSIBLE VCSH WITH
MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN WITH REDEVELOPMENT OR LINGERING CLOUD DECK AT
DVL AND FAR. SE WINDS 15 TO 20KTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 25 TO 30KTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL DAKOTAS. SHOWERS POSSIBLY IMBEDDED WITH
THUNDER EXPECTED LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MOST CERTAIN AT DVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...JK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 301752
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON LATEST MODELS AND TRENDS. TWEAKED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SKY COVER PRIMARILY. STILL EXPECT
SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE
SOUTH...WHERE A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH SEVERE
LIMITS. BEST SEVERE PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE FURTHER SOUTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRESHENED UP FORECAST FOR WINDS AND CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ND SIDE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ERODING ON THE MN
SIDE. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE TODAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA. LATEST MODELS ARE A LITTLE DRIER TODAY ACROSS THE
AREA. MAY NEED TO MODIFY PRECIP FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS AND UPCOMING MODEL RUNS FOR DIRECTION ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EASTERN SD AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ND. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

IFR CIGS HAVE CLEARED OUT AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT DVL...WHICH WILL
SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR BY MID AFTN. BAND OF SHOWERS
MOVING NORTH TOWARDS DVL AND FAR ARE WEAKENING. POSSIBLE VCSH WITH
MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN WITH REDEVELOPMENT OR LINGERING CLOUD DECK AT
DVL AND FAR. SE WINDS 15 TO 20KTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 25 TO 30KTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL DAKOTAS. SHOWERS POSSIBLY IMBEDDED WITH
THUNDER EXPECTED LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MOST CERTAIN AT DVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...JK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 301533
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1033 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRESHENED UP FORECAST FOR WINDS AND CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ND SIDE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ERODING ON THE MN
SIDE. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE TODAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA. LATEST MODELS ARE A LITTLE DRIER TODAY ACROSS THE
AREA. MAY NEED TO MODIFY PRECIP FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS AND UPCOMING MODEL RUNS FOR DIRECTION ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EASTERN SD AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ND. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW CIGS WITH IFR AS OF 15Z AT BJI AND DVL...MVFR AT GFK AND TVF.
HAVE SCATTERED OUT WITH A BKN 5500FT DECK AT FAR. EXPECTING THE MVFR
TO CONTINUE TO LIFT AND SCT OUT PER RAP/HRRR SOLNS LATE MORNING WITH
BJI ALSO IMPROVING ALBEIT SLOWER. DVL EXPECTED TO SEE IFR LIFTING TO
MVFR MID DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...JK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 301533
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1033 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRESHENED UP FORECAST FOR WINDS AND CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ND SIDE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ERODING ON THE MN
SIDE. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE TODAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA. LATEST MODELS ARE A LITTLE DRIER TODAY ACROSS THE
AREA. MAY NEED TO MODIFY PRECIP FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS AND UPCOMING MODEL RUNS FOR DIRECTION ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EASTERN SD AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ND. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW CIGS WITH IFR AS OF 15Z AT BJI AND DVL...MVFR AT GFK AND TVF.
HAVE SCATTERED OUT WITH A BKN 5500FT DECK AT FAR. EXPECTING THE MVFR
TO CONTINUE TO LIFT AND SCT OUT PER RAP/HRRR SOLNS LATE MORNING WITH
BJI ALSO IMPROVING ALBEIT SLOWER. DVL EXPECTED TO SEE IFR LIFTING TO
MVFR MID DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...JK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 301533
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1033 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRESHENED UP FORECAST FOR WINDS AND CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ND SIDE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ERODING ON THE MN
SIDE. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE TODAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA. LATEST MODELS ARE A LITTLE DRIER TODAY ACROSS THE
AREA. MAY NEED TO MODIFY PRECIP FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS AND UPCOMING MODEL RUNS FOR DIRECTION ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EASTERN SD AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ND. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW CIGS WITH IFR AS OF 15Z AT BJI AND DVL...MVFR AT GFK AND TVF.
HAVE SCATTERED OUT WITH A BKN 5500FT DECK AT FAR. EXPECTING THE MVFR
TO CONTINUE TO LIFT AND SCT OUT PER RAP/HRRR SOLNS LATE MORNING WITH
BJI ALSO IMPROVING ALBEIT SLOWER. DVL EXPECTED TO SEE IFR LIFTING TO
MVFR MID DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...JK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 301533
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1033 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRESHENED UP FORECAST FOR WINDS AND CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ND SIDE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ERODING ON THE MN
SIDE. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE TODAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA. LATEST MODELS ARE A LITTLE DRIER TODAY ACROSS THE
AREA. MAY NEED TO MODIFY PRECIP FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS AND UPCOMING MODEL RUNS FOR DIRECTION ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EASTERN SD AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ND. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW CIGS WITH IFR AS OF 15Z AT BJI AND DVL...MVFR AT GFK AND TVF.
HAVE SCATTERED OUT WITH A BKN 5500FT DECK AT FAR. EXPECTING THE MVFR
TO CONTINUE TO LIFT AND SCT OUT PER RAP/HRRR SOLNS LATE MORNING WITH
BJI ALSO IMPROVING ALBEIT SLOWER. DVL EXPECTED TO SEE IFR LIFTING TO
MVFR MID DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...JK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 301532
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1032 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. STRONG STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT INTO NORTH
DAKOTA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VERY STRONG SHEAR/LOW
LEVEL HELICITY WILL EXIST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AROUND 20/21Z
AND LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM THERE WILL
BE A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE FROM AROUND THE MISSOURI RIVER EAST INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...DUE TO THE
EXPECTED FAST STORM MOTION...AND WEAK TORNADOES DUE TO THE STRONG
SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY. WILL FRESHEN UP PRODUCTS INCLUDING
THE HWO WITH LATEST THINKING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WELL DEFINED CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR RAPID CITY IS LIFTING
NORTH. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. CURRENT TRENDS HAVE THE RAIN
ARRIVING IN BISMARCK AROUND 9 AM CDT. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
FOR THIS. ALSO FOG NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER THOUGHT. CONFINED
THE FOG MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENTLY...A LARGE SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER
THE WESTERN NE/SD BORDER. THIS STACKED SYSTEM WAS NEAR THE BASE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY
DAYBREAK TODAY. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.

AFTER DAYBREAK THE THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY EXITING
INTO MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND WITH SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM - INCLUDING WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY - POINT TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE...WHERE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA CAN EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH...WITH 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO MANITOBA.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AFTER THE SHORT TERM UPPER LOW KICKS OUT THERE IS A SECOND
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION AND GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE IS AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. THE WEEKEND GENERALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
BROAD RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STILL DO NOT SEE A HARD FREEZE FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT SEEN ONE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS TODAY. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD/EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID- DAY TUESDAY...THEN
RETURN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 301532
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1032 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. STRONG STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT INTO NORTH
DAKOTA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VERY STRONG SHEAR/LOW
LEVEL HELICITY WILL EXIST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AROUND 20/21Z
AND LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM THERE WILL
BE A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE FROM AROUND THE MISSOURI RIVER EAST INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...DUE TO THE
EXPECTED FAST STORM MOTION...AND WEAK TORNADOES DUE TO THE STRONG
SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY. WILL FRESHEN UP PRODUCTS INCLUDING
THE HWO WITH LATEST THINKING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WELL DEFINED CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR RAPID CITY IS LIFTING
NORTH. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. CURRENT TRENDS HAVE THE RAIN
ARRIVING IN BISMARCK AROUND 9 AM CDT. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
FOR THIS. ALSO FOG NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER THOUGHT. CONFINED
THE FOG MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENTLY...A LARGE SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER
THE WESTERN NE/SD BORDER. THIS STACKED SYSTEM WAS NEAR THE BASE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY
DAYBREAK TODAY. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.

AFTER DAYBREAK THE THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY EXITING
INTO MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND WITH SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM - INCLUDING WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY - POINT TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE...WHERE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA CAN EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH...WITH 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO MANITOBA.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AFTER THE SHORT TERM UPPER LOW KICKS OUT THERE IS A SECOND
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION AND GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE IS AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. THE WEEKEND GENERALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
BROAD RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STILL DO NOT SEE A HARD FREEZE FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT SEEN ONE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS TODAY. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD/EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID- DAY TUESDAY...THEN
RETURN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 301532
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1032 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. STRONG STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT INTO NORTH
DAKOTA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VERY STRONG SHEAR/LOW
LEVEL HELICITY WILL EXIST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AROUND 20/21Z
AND LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM THERE WILL
BE A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE FROM AROUND THE MISSOURI RIVER EAST INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...DUE TO THE
EXPECTED FAST STORM MOTION...AND WEAK TORNADOES DUE TO THE STRONG
SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY. WILL FRESHEN UP PRODUCTS INCLUDING
THE HWO WITH LATEST THINKING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WELL DEFINED CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR RAPID CITY IS LIFTING
NORTH. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. CURRENT TRENDS HAVE THE RAIN
ARRIVING IN BISMARCK AROUND 9 AM CDT. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
FOR THIS. ALSO FOG NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER THOUGHT. CONFINED
THE FOG MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENTLY...A LARGE SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER
THE WESTERN NE/SD BORDER. THIS STACKED SYSTEM WAS NEAR THE BASE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY
DAYBREAK TODAY. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.

AFTER DAYBREAK THE THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY EXITING
INTO MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND WITH SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM - INCLUDING WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY - POINT TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE...WHERE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA CAN EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH...WITH 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO MANITOBA.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AFTER THE SHORT TERM UPPER LOW KICKS OUT THERE IS A SECOND
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION AND GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE IS AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. THE WEEKEND GENERALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
BROAD RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STILL DO NOT SEE A HARD FREEZE FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT SEEN ONE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS TODAY. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD/EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID- DAY TUESDAY...THEN
RETURN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 301532
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1032 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. STRONG STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT INTO NORTH
DAKOTA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VERY STRONG SHEAR/LOW
LEVEL HELICITY WILL EXIST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AROUND 20/21Z
AND LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM THERE WILL
BE A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE FROM AROUND THE MISSOURI RIVER EAST INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...DUE TO THE
EXPECTED FAST STORM MOTION...AND WEAK TORNADOES DUE TO THE STRONG
SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY. WILL FRESHEN UP PRODUCTS INCLUDING
THE HWO WITH LATEST THINKING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WELL DEFINED CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR RAPID CITY IS LIFTING
NORTH. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. CURRENT TRENDS HAVE THE RAIN
ARRIVING IN BISMARCK AROUND 9 AM CDT. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
FOR THIS. ALSO FOG NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER THOUGHT. CONFINED
THE FOG MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENTLY...A LARGE SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER
THE WESTERN NE/SD BORDER. THIS STACKED SYSTEM WAS NEAR THE BASE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY
DAYBREAK TODAY. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.

AFTER DAYBREAK THE THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY EXITING
INTO MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND WITH SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM - INCLUDING WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY - POINT TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE...WHERE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA CAN EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH...WITH 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO MANITOBA.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AFTER THE SHORT TERM UPPER LOW KICKS OUT THERE IS A SECOND
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION AND GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE IS AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. THE WEEKEND GENERALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
BROAD RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STILL DO NOT SEE A HARD FREEZE FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT SEEN ONE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS TODAY. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD/EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID- DAY TUESDAY...THEN
RETURN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH






000
FXUS63 KFGF 301433
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRESHENED UP FORECAST FOR WINDS AND CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ND SIDE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ERODING ON THE MN
SIDE. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE TODAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA. LATEST MODELS ARE A LITTLE DRIER TODAY ACROSS THE
AREA. MAY NEED TO MODIFY PRECIP FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS AND UPCOMING MODEL RUNS FOR DIRECTION ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EASTERN SD AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ND. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MOSTLY IFR CIGS WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIVER OF CLEAR SKY
REMAINS ALONG THE RED RIVER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE VALLEY. THE
NORTHERN VALLEY SHOULD CLOUD OVER BY 7 OR 8 AM CDT. EXPECT IFR CIGS
TO LIFT/DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY STARTING WITH THE NORTHEAST ZONES. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10 OR 11 AM WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND AT
15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 301433
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRESHENED UP FORECAST FOR WINDS AND CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ND SIDE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ERODING ON THE MN
SIDE. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE TODAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA. LATEST MODELS ARE A LITTLE DRIER TODAY ACROSS THE
AREA. MAY NEED TO MODIFY PRECIP FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS AND UPCOMING MODEL RUNS FOR DIRECTION ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EASTERN SD AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ND. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MOSTLY IFR CIGS WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIVER OF CLEAR SKY
REMAINS ALONG THE RED RIVER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE VALLEY. THE
NORTHERN VALLEY SHOULD CLOUD OVER BY 7 OR 8 AM CDT. EXPECT IFR CIGS
TO LIFT/DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY STARTING WITH THE NORTHEAST ZONES. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10 OR 11 AM WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND AT
15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 301201
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EASTERN SD AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ND. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MOSTLY IFR CIGS WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIVER OF CLEAR SKY
REMAINS ALONG THE RED RIVER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE VALLEY. THE
NORTHERN VALLEY SHOULD CLOUD OVER BY 7 OR 8 AM CDT. EXPECT IFR CIGS
TO LIFT/DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY STARTING WITH THE NORTHEAST ZONES. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10 OR 11 AM WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND AT
15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 301201
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EASTERN SD AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ND. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MOSTLY IFR CIGS WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIVER OF CLEAR SKY
REMAINS ALONG THE RED RIVER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE VALLEY. THE
NORTHERN VALLEY SHOULD CLOUD OVER BY 7 OR 8 AM CDT. EXPECT IFR CIGS
TO LIFT/DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY STARTING WITH THE NORTHEAST ZONES. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10 OR 11 AM WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND AT
15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 301201
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EASTERN SD AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ND. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MOSTLY IFR CIGS WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIVER OF CLEAR SKY
REMAINS ALONG THE RED RIVER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE VALLEY. THE
NORTHERN VALLEY SHOULD CLOUD OVER BY 7 OR 8 AM CDT. EXPECT IFR CIGS
TO LIFT/DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY STARTING WITH THE NORTHEAST ZONES. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10 OR 11 AM WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND AT
15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 301201
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EASTERN SD AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ND. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MOSTLY IFR CIGS WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIVER OF CLEAR SKY
REMAINS ALONG THE RED RIVER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE VALLEY. THE
NORTHERN VALLEY SHOULD CLOUD OVER BY 7 OR 8 AM CDT. EXPECT IFR CIGS
TO LIFT/DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY STARTING WITH THE NORTHEAST ZONES. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10 OR 11 AM WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND AT
15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KBIS 301142
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
642 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WELL DEFINED CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR RAPID CITY IS LIFTING
NORTH. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. CURRENT TRENDS HAVE THE RAIN
ARRIVING IN BISMARCK AROUND 9 AM CDT. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
FOR THIS. ALSO FOG NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER THOUGHT. CONFINED
THE FOG MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENTLY...A LARGE SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER
THE WESTERN NE/SD BORDER. THIS STACKED SYSTEM WAS NEAR THE BASE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY
DAYBREAK TODAY. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.

AFTER DAYBREAK THE THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY EXITING
INTO MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND WITH SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM - INCLUDING WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY - POINT TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE...WHERE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA CAN EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH...WITH 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO MANITOBA.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AFTER THE SHORT TERM UPPER LOW KICKS OUT THERE IS A SECOND
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION AND GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE IS AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. THE WEEKEND GENERALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
BROAD RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STILL DO NOT SEE A HARD FREEZE FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT SEEN ONE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS TODAY. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD/EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID- DAY TUESDAY...THEN
RETURN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 300902
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
402 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

STUCK WITH THE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD HEIGHT FORECAST BUT MOVED UP THE
TIMING A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF SET. APPEARS THE LOWER
CLOUDS APPROACHING KBJI RIGHT NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
WEST. HIGHEST CEILING HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY STAY OUT OVER KDVL AT
LEAST INITIALLY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE MORNING
AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS
ARE HINTING THAT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY FIRE TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FA AND SHIFT EAST ROBBING THE MOISTURE FEED HERE. THEREFORE
JUST WENT WITH VCSH FOR NOW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 300902
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
402 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

STUCK WITH THE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD HEIGHT FORECAST BUT MOVED UP THE
TIMING A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF SET. APPEARS THE LOWER
CLOUDS APPROACHING KBJI RIGHT NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
WEST. HIGHEST CEILING HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY STAY OUT OVER KDVL AT
LEAST INITIALLY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE MORNING
AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS
ARE HINTING THAT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY FIRE TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FA AND SHIFT EAST ROBBING THE MOISTURE FEED HERE. THEREFORE
JUST WENT WITH VCSH FOR NOW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...GODON





000
FXUS63 KBIS 300850
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
350 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENTLY...A LARGE SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER
THE WESTERN NE/SD BORDER. THIS STACKED SYSTEM WAS NEAR THE BASE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY
DAYBREAK TODAY. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.

AFTER DAYBREAK THE THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY EXITING
INTO MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND WITH SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM - INCLUDING WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY - POINT TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE...WHERE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA CAN EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH...WITH 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO MANITOBA.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AFTER THE SHORT TERM UPPER LOW KICKS OUT THERE IS A SECOND
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION AND GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE IS AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. THE WEEKEND GENERALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
BROAD RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STILL DO NOT SEE A HARD FREEZE FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT SEEN ONE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING IFR LEVELS BY
AROUND 09Z. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE KJMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO IFR
AFTER 10Z THIS TUESDAY MORNING. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD/EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-DAY TUESDAY...THEN
RETURN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 300850
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
350 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENTLY...A LARGE SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER
THE WESTERN NE/SD BORDER. THIS STACKED SYSTEM WAS NEAR THE BASE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY
DAYBREAK TODAY. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.

AFTER DAYBREAK THE THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY EXITING
INTO MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND WITH SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM - INCLUDING WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY - POINT TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE...WHERE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA CAN EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH...WITH 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO MANITOBA.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AFTER THE SHORT TERM UPPER LOW KICKS OUT THERE IS A SECOND
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION AND GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE IS AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. THE WEEKEND GENERALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
BROAD RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STILL DO NOT SEE A HARD FREEZE FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT SEEN ONE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING IFR LEVELS BY
AROUND 09Z. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE KJMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO IFR
AFTER 10Z THIS TUESDAY MORNING. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD/EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-DAY TUESDAY...THEN
RETURN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 300850
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
350 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENTLY...A LARGE SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER
THE WESTERN NE/SD BORDER. THIS STACKED SYSTEM WAS NEAR THE BASE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY
DAYBREAK TODAY. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.

AFTER DAYBREAK THE THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY EXITING
INTO MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND WITH SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM - INCLUDING WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY - POINT TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE...WHERE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA CAN EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH...WITH 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO MANITOBA.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AFTER THE SHORT TERM UPPER LOW KICKS OUT THERE IS A SECOND
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION AND GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE IS AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. THE WEEKEND GENERALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
BROAD RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STILL DO NOT SEE A HARD FREEZE FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT SEEN ONE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING IFR LEVELS BY
AROUND 09Z. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE KJMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO IFR
AFTER 10Z THIS TUESDAY MORNING. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD/EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-DAY TUESDAY...THEN
RETURN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 300850
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
350 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENTLY...A LARGE SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER
THE WESTERN NE/SD BORDER. THIS STACKED SYSTEM WAS NEAR THE BASE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY
DAYBREAK TODAY. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.

AFTER DAYBREAK THE THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY EXITING
INTO MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND WITH SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM - INCLUDING WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY - POINT TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE...WHERE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA CAN EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH...WITH 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO MANITOBA.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AFTER THE SHORT TERM UPPER LOW KICKS OUT THERE IS A SECOND
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION AND GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE IS AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. THE WEEKEND GENERALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
BROAD RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STILL DO NOT SEE A HARD FREEZE FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT SEEN ONE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING IFR LEVELS BY
AROUND 09Z. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE KJMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO IFR
AFTER 10Z THIS TUESDAY MORNING. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD/EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-DAY TUESDAY...THEN
RETURN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 300550
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER THE NE/CO
BORDER. ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
EXPECT SHOWERS FROM LAKE SAKAKAWEA SOUTHWARD AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES NORTHWARD FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND
09Z. AFTER 15Z THE STACKED SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK AND
NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

INITIAL UPPER WAVE HAS PUSHED NORTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH ONLY A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS REMAINING. NEXT STRONGER WAVE IS MAKING A
QUICK APPROACH WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO MANY PARTS
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THOUGH HAVE INCREASED CHANCES
LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE PUSHED CHANCES A BIT FURTHER EAST IN LINE
WITH LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A REDUCTION IN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN PER LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...FOR EVENING UPDATE HAVE BACKED POPS OFF A BIT OVER
THIS AREA UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING THAT LIFTS TO NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
RADAR RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL. FARTHER EAST...A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT THESE WERE
QUICKLY FILLING IN AS INSOLATION INCREASED.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HAVE LIMITED POPS EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. ALSO LIMITED THE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA  LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AS THE
STRONG FORCING LIFTS DIRECTLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POTENT SHORT WAVE BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK.

THE 12 UTC MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A POTENT SHORT WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE
COLD CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING IFR LEVELS BY
AROUND 09Z. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE KJMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO IFR
AFTER 10Z THIS TUESDAY MORNING. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD/EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-DAY TUESDAY...THEN
RETURN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 300550
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER THE NE/CO
BORDER. ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
EXPECT SHOWERS FROM LAKE SAKAKAWEA SOUTHWARD AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES NORTHWARD FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND
09Z. AFTER 15Z THE STACKED SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK AND
NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

INITIAL UPPER WAVE HAS PUSHED NORTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH ONLY A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS REMAINING. NEXT STRONGER WAVE IS MAKING A
QUICK APPROACH WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO MANY PARTS
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THOUGH HAVE INCREASED CHANCES
LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE PUSHED CHANCES A BIT FURTHER EAST IN LINE
WITH LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A REDUCTION IN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN PER LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...FOR EVENING UPDATE HAVE BACKED POPS OFF A BIT OVER
THIS AREA UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING THAT LIFTS TO NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
RADAR RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL. FARTHER EAST...A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT THESE WERE
QUICKLY FILLING IN AS INSOLATION INCREASED.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HAVE LIMITED POPS EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. ALSO LIMITED THE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA  LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AS THE
STRONG FORCING LIFTS DIRECTLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POTENT SHORT WAVE BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK.

THE 12 UTC MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A POTENT SHORT WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE
COLD CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING IFR LEVELS BY
AROUND 09Z. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE KJMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO IFR
AFTER 10Z THIS TUESDAY MORNING. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD/EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-DAY TUESDAY...THEN
RETURN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KFGF 300433
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1133 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MORE UPDATES TO CLOUD TRENDS AS IT APPEARS CLOUDS OVER EASTERN MN
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE WEST TONIGHT. WINDS ARE STAYING UP
TOO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MAJORITY OF EASTERN CWA HAS
CLEARED OUT WITH WESTERN HALF CELLULAR IN NATURE. RADAR SHOWS
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA UP THROUGH DICKINSON
ND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH INCOMING SYSTEM AND WILL USE A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND NAM DNG5 FOR
TEMPERATURES. FOR WED/THU TIMEFRAME THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH LOW POPS...AND WILL TREND TOWARD CONTINUITY FOR
THIS PERIOD.

TONIGHT...CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE
AS EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP AND ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CIRRUS CLOUDS TO SOUTHWEST WILL WORK THEIR WAY TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LOW MOVING NORTH WILL
KEEP WINDS WARM ENOUGH TO NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP TOO FAR INTO THE
30S IN THE CLEARER EASTERN ZONES.

TOMORROW...SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SD AND INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS STRONGEST IN THE DEVILS LAKE REGION. OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL
NEED TO EVALUATE FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL BUT CURRENT GRIDS ARE
BELOW CRITERIA.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE NAM IS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH DEF ZONE. THE GFS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND FOR THIS REASON REMOVED
LIKELY POPS IN MY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES UNTIL MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES.
ULTIMATELY THE MODELS ARE TARGETING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH
INCLUDES MY FAR WESTERN ZONES. SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SRN
MB BY WED AM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WED AND THU...SFC LOW MOVES INTO MB ON WED AND WESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON AMT OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH AND HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN PER
CONTINUITY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WED AFTN AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SFC TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE GUIDANCE ACCORDINGLY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...THIS PERIOD FEATURES A TRANSITION TO AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. ONE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE
TO HELP IN THIS TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. USUAL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BUT
GENERAL IDEA IS THAT OF BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN FAIRLY RAPID MOVEMENT OF SURFACE
TROUGHS/RIDGES AND ATTENDANT CHC POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO EARLY OCTOBER MEANS WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY WARMING BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

STUCK WITH THE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD HEIGHT FORECAST BUT MOVED UP THE
TIMING A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF SET. APPEARS THE LOWER
CLOUDS APPROACHING KBJI RIGHT NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
WEST. HIGHEST CEILING HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY STAY OUT OVER KDVL AT
LEAST INITIALLY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE MORNING
AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS
ARE HINTING THAT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY FIRE TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FA AND SHIFT EAST ROBBING THE MOISTURE FEED HERE. THEREFORE
JUST WENT WITH VCSH FOR NOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...EWENS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GODON







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