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000
FXUS63 KBIS 240833
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
333 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY IS WINDS...AND ELEVATED OR NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE FIRE WEATHER PORTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION FOR THOSE DETAILS.

CURRENTLY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THE SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND SUNRISE...AND SWEEPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
LATE MORNING/AROUND NOON. AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...TO 25 TO NEAR 30
MPH IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 35
MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

GOOD MIXING ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TODAY.

MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM WITH A RETURN
TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AS RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND BROAD TROUGH TO THE WEST
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE ROCKIES. COOL FRONT STARTS WORKING ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA LATE DAY WHICH COMBINED WITH INITIAL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OVER
NORTHERN/WESTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERE MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE DRY SIDE FOR THIS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREAD OVER
THE AREA AND INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS BROAD TROUGH PUSHES
IN. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER...CLOSER TO
AVERAGE. SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE
MONDAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE FOR TUESDAY. RIDGE THEN
TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 KTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH. THIS
WILL IMPACT KMOT THE MOST WITH WINDS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE CRITICAL WEATHER ELEMENTS OF TEMPERATURE...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...AND EXPECTED WINDS REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS FORECAST
YESTERDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

WINDS:
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE STATE. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE WINDS
COULD GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

TEMPS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY:
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST
TO THE LOWER 70S FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. THE DRIEST AIR THIS AFTERNOON
(LOWEST DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES) SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHWEST...WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTHEAST...AS DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THUS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
25 PERCENT ACROSS ALL/MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FUELS:
LATEST HERBACEOUS FUEL MOISTURE FROM NFDRS MODEL INDICATES DRIEST
GRASSLANDS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH A BIT MORE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE. REPORTS FROM FIRE MANAGERS INDICATED THAT THE GRASSLANDS
ARE DRY/CURED ENOUGH TO BURN READILY SHOULD WEATHER CONDITIONS REACH
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

SUMMARY:
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT FOR AROUND 2-3
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED NORTH CENTRAL WHERE
HIGHER RESIDUAL GRASSLAND FUEL MOISTURE IS IN NFDRS MODEL...AND
WHERE THE FIRE DANGER HAS BEEN MAINLY IN THE LOW AND MEDIUM
CATEGORIES OF LATE.

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED
TODAY...BUT NOT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WARNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV
FIRE WEATHER...JV









000
FXUS63 KBIS 240533
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1233 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS. NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST...WITH SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON HOURLY OBSERVATIONS. STILL EXPECTING LOWS OF 35 TO 45.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE WAY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
AN ONWARDS. BEFOREHAND...FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
LEAD WAVES FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST WITHIN
THE FLOW AND THROUGH OUR AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. OPTED TO INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY DAYTIME WEST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL UNDER THIS PATTERN. QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL BE SATURATED
ENOUGH AT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR ANY
MOISTURE TO REACH THE SURFACE...HENCE THE SLIGHT CHANCE USAGE.

BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALONG TO BEHIND THE WAVE CAA WILL COMMENCE AND MAY SEE A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING IF WE HAVE ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION. HIGHS MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH MORE
OCTOBER-ISH...MID 40S TO MID 50S. UNCERTAINTY AS WE PROGRESS
TOWARDS HALLOWEEN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WARM FRONT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 KTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH. THIS
WILL IMPACT KMOT THE MOST WITH WINDS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV






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000
FXUS63 KFGF 240437
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1137 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1001 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO UPDATE NEEDED. FORECAST GOOD SO FAR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WINDS TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS USHER IN 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TEENS C INTO THE REGION.
WITH DECENT MIXING FROM THE WINDS AND THE MILD AIR MASS...LOWS
WILL STAY IN THE MID 40S IN MOST AREAS. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...BUT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA
WILL BE THE BEGINNINGS OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...AND EVEN WITH
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH AS IT
MOVES EAST...TEMPS SHOULD GET VERY MILD AND APPROACH 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE WINDS. THERE WILL BE
A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH...AND
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD MIXING TO AROUND 850MB. THE GFS IS GUNG HO
ON WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WITH AROUND 40 KTS
POSSIBLE WHILE THE NAM IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW BUT WILL GO CLOSE TO 25 KTS SUSTAINED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH MORE COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE CWA. EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION THINK THAT MIXING
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
AVERAGE ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH RIDGING
TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS BEGIN TO
INDICATE A CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE SUNDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF AND NAM BREAK OUT SOME PRECIP IN OUR
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE 00Z MONDAY...THOUGH THE GEM IS DRY AND GFS IS
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PRECIP. WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THINK THAT BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL RESULT IN A SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT FOR THE NORTHERN TIER
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH
MODELS SFC PATTERN DEPICTIONS AS THE GFS SHOWS A STRONG SFC LOW
OVER NW WI AT 12Z TUE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER EAST WITH THIS
FEATURE. GFS SOLUTION IS MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIP AND HAS HIGHEST
QPF OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES. GFS ALSO MUCH SLOWER AND KEEPS PRECIP
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE ECMWF PUSHES LOW OVER CNTRL GRT
LKS AND ENDS PRECIP TUE NIGHT. CONTINUITY AND UPDATED GRIDS
REPRESENT FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION AND DRY CONDS ON WED...BUT WILL BE
A SYSTEM TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW OVER NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT WINDS
TO PICK UP AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PRIMARILY SCT-BKN CI TO AFFECT FA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SW-W WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE DVL
BASIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 240302
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1002 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO UPDATE NEEDED. FORECAST GOOD SO FAR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WINDS TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS USHER IN 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TEENS C INTO THE REGION.
WITH DECENT MIXING FROM THE WINDS AND THE MILD AIR MASS...LOWS
WILL STAY IN THE MID 40S IN MOST AREAS. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...BUT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA
WILL BE THE BEGINNINGS OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...AND EVEN WITH
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH AS IT
MOVES EAST...TEMPS SHOULD GET VERY MILD AND APPROACH 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE WINDS. THERE WILL BE
A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH...AND
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD MIXING TO AROUND 850MB. THE GFS IS GUNG HO
ON WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WITH AROUND 40 KTS
POSSIBLE WHILE THE NAM IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW BUT WILL GO CLOSE TO 25 KTS SUSTAINED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH MORE COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE CWA. EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION THINK THAT MIXING
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
AVERAGE ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH RIDGING
TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS BEGIN TO
INDICATE A CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE SUNDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF AND NAM BREAK OUT SOME PRECIP IN OUR
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE 00Z MONDAY...THOUGH THE GEM IS DRY AND GFS IS
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PRECIP. WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THINK THAT BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL RESULT IN A SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT FOR THE NORTHERN TIER
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH
MODELS SFC PATTERN DEPICTIONS AS THE GFS SHOWS A STRONG SFC LOW
OVER NW WI AT 12Z TUE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER EAST WITH THIS
FEATURE. GFS SOLUTION IS MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIP AND HAS HIGHEST
QPF OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES. GFS ALSO MUCH SLOWER AND KEEPS PRECIP
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE ECMWF PUSHES LOW OVER CNTRL GRT
LKS AND ENDS PRECIP TUE NIGHT. CONTINUITY AND UPDATED GRIDS
REPRESENT FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION AND DRY CONDS ON WED...BUT WILL BE
A SYSTEM TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW OVER NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT WINDS
TO PICK UP AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW OVER NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT WINDS
TO PICK UP AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 240302
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1002 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO UPDATE NEEDED. FORECAST GOOD SO FAR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WINDS TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS USHER IN 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TEENS C INTO THE REGION.
WITH DECENT MIXING FROM THE WINDS AND THE MILD AIR MASS...LOWS
WILL STAY IN THE MID 40S IN MOST AREAS. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...BUT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA
WILL BE THE BEGINNINGS OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...AND EVEN WITH
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH AS IT
MOVES EAST...TEMPS SHOULD GET VERY MILD AND APPROACH 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE WINDS. THERE WILL BE
A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH...AND
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD MIXING TO AROUND 850MB. THE GFS IS GUNG HO
ON WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WITH AROUND 40 KTS
POSSIBLE WHILE THE NAM IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW BUT WILL GO CLOSE TO 25 KTS SUSTAINED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH MORE COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE CWA. EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION THINK THAT MIXING
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
AVERAGE ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH RIDGING
TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS BEGIN TO
INDICATE A CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE SUNDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF AND NAM BREAK OUT SOME PRECIP IN OUR
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE 00Z MONDAY...THOUGH THE GEM IS DRY AND GFS IS
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PRECIP. WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THINK THAT BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL RESULT IN A SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT FOR THE NORTHERN TIER
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH
MODELS SFC PATTERN DEPICTIONS AS THE GFS SHOWS A STRONG SFC LOW
OVER NW WI AT 12Z TUE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER EAST WITH THIS
FEATURE. GFS SOLUTION IS MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIP AND HAS HIGHEST
QPF OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES. GFS ALSO MUCH SLOWER AND KEEPS PRECIP
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE ECMWF PUSHES LOW OVER CNTRL GRT
LKS AND ENDS PRECIP TUE NIGHT. CONTINUITY AND UPDATED GRIDS
REPRESENT FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION AND DRY CONDS ON WED...BUT WILL BE
A SYSTEM TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW OVER NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT WINDS
TO PICK UP AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW OVER NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT WINDS
TO PICK UP AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 240243
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
943 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A 160+ KNOT
JET STREAK DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NOSING INTO
WESTERN MONTANA. AS A RESULT...INCREASED FIRST PERIOD SKY COVER
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE
IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY POINT TO GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY. SHORT TERM
MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE BROAD H500
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
THIS FEATURE WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. WITH MOISTURE BEING LIMITED...THE MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST WINDS. WHILE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED BE
IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY... THEY WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH.
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE SEE SOME
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
AND MOSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY. WITH GOOD MIXING WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD
SEE HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST...TO THE LOWER 60S
NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE WAY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
AN ONWARDS. BEFOREHAND...FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
LEAD WAVES FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST WITHIN
THE FLOW AND THROUGH OUR AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. OPTED TO INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY DAYTIME WEST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL UNDER THIS PATTERN. QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL BE SATURATED
ENOUGH AT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR ANY
MOISTURE TO REACH THE SURFACE...HENCE THE SLIGHT CHANCE USAGE.

BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALONG TO BEHIND THE WAVE CAA WILL COMMENCE AND MAY SEE A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING IF WE HAVE ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION. HIGHS MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH MORE
OCTOBER-ISH...MID 40S TO MID 50S. UNCERTAINTY AS WE PROGRESS
TOWARDS HALLOWEEN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WARM FRONT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 KTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH. THIS
WILL IMPACT KMOT THE MOST WITH WINDS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHERE WINDS COULD GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS LATEST
WIND FORECAST IS JUST A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS HAVE
INDICATED.

IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD RANGE
FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS REMAIN
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA ALTHOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ELEVATED.

REPORTS FROM FIRE MANAGERS INDICATED THAT THE GRASSLANDS ARE
DRY/CURED ENOUGH TO BURN READILY SHOULD WEATHER CONDITIONS REACH
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

HAVE ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN
THE LATEST WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM
FIRE WEATHER...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 240243
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
943 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A 160+ KNOT
JET STREAK DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NOSING INTO
WESTERN MONTANA. AS A RESULT...INCREASED FIRST PERIOD SKY COVER
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE
IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY POINT TO GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY. SHORT TERM
MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE BROAD H500
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
THIS FEATURE WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. WITH MOISTURE BEING LIMITED...THE MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST WINDS. WHILE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED BE
IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY... THEY WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH.
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE SEE SOME
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
AND MOSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY. WITH GOOD MIXING WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD
SEE HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST...TO THE LOWER 60S
NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE WAY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
AN ONWARDS. BEFOREHAND...FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
LEAD WAVES FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST WITHIN
THE FLOW AND THROUGH OUR AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. OPTED TO INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY DAYTIME WEST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL UNDER THIS PATTERN. QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL BE SATURATED
ENOUGH AT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR ANY
MOISTURE TO REACH THE SURFACE...HENCE THE SLIGHT CHANCE USAGE.

BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALONG TO BEHIND THE WAVE CAA WILL COMMENCE AND MAY SEE A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING IF WE HAVE ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION. HIGHS MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH MORE
OCTOBER-ISH...MID 40S TO MID 50S. UNCERTAINTY AS WE PROGRESS
TOWARDS HALLOWEEN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WARM FRONT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 KTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH. THIS
WILL IMPACT KMOT THE MOST WITH WINDS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHERE WINDS COULD GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS LATEST
WIND FORECAST IS JUST A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS HAVE
INDICATED.

IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD RANGE
FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS REMAIN
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA ALTHOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ELEVATED.

REPORTS FROM FIRE MANAGERS INDICATED THAT THE GRASSLANDS ARE
DRY/CURED ENOUGH TO BURN READILY SHOULD WEATHER CONDITIONS REACH
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

HAVE ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN
THE LATEST WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM
FIRE WEATHER...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 232336
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WINDS TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS USHER IN 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TEENS C INTO THE REGION.
WITH DECENT MIXING FROM THE WINDS AND THE MILD AIR MASS...LOWS
WILL STAY IN THE MID 40S IN MOST AREAS. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...BUT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA
WILL BE THE BEGINNINGS OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...AND EVEN WITH
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH AS IT
MOVES EAST...TEMPS SHOULD GET VERY MILD AND APPROACH 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE WINDS. THERE WILL BE
A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH...AND
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD MIXING TO AROUND 850MB. THE GFS IS GUNG HO
ON WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WITH AROUND 40 KTS
POSSIBLE WHILE THE NAM IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW BUT WILL GO CLOSE TO 25 KTS SUSTAINED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH MORE COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE CWA. EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION THINK THAT MIXING
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
AVERAGE ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH RIDGING
TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS BEGIN TO
INDICATE A CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE SUNDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF AND NAM BREAK OUT SOME PRECIP IN OUR
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE 00Z MONDAY...THOUGH THE GEM IS DRY AND GFS IS
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PRECIP. WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THINK THAT BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL RESULT IN A SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT FOR THE NORTHERN TIER
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH
MODELS SFC PATTERN DEPICTIONS AS THE GFS SHOWS A STRONG SFC LOW
OVER NW WI AT 12Z TUE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER EAST WITH THIS
FEATURE. GFS SOLUTION IS MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIP AND HAS HIGHEST
QPF OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES. GFS ALSO MUCH SLOWER AND KEEPS PRECIP
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE ECMWF PUSHES LOW OVER CNTRL GRT
LKS AND ENDS PRECIP TUE NIGHT. CONTINUITY AND UPDATED GRIDS
REPRESENT FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION AND DRY CONDS ON WED...BUT WILL BE
A SYSTEM TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW OVER NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT WINDS
TO PICK UP AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY CI UPSTREAM TO AFFECT THE
FA. TOMORROW WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN
THE DVL BASIN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 232310
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
610 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A 160+ KNOT
JET STREAK DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NOSING INTO
WESTERN MONTANA. AS A RESULT...INCREASED FIRST PERIOD SKY COVER
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE
IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY POINT TO GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY. SHORT TERM
MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE BROAD H500
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
THIS FEATURE WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. WITH MOISTURE BEING LIMITED...THE MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST WINDS. WHILE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED BE
IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY... THEY WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH.
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE SEE SOME
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
AND MOSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY. WITH GOOD MIXING WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD
SEE HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST...TO THE LOWER 60S
NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE WAY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
AN ONWARDS. BEFOREHAND...FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
LEAD WAVES FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST WITHIN
THE FLOW AND THROUGH OUR AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. OPTED TO INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY DAYTIME WEST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL UNDER THIS PATTERN. QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL BE SATURATED
ENOUGH AT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR ANY
MOISTURE TO REACH THE SURFACE...HENCE THE SLIGHT CHANCE USAGE.

BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALONG TO BEHIND THE WAVE CAA WILL COMMENCE AND MAY SEE A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING IF WE HAVE ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION. HIGHS MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH MORE
OCTOBER-ISH...MID 40S TO MID 50S. UNCERTAINTY AS WE PROGRESS
TOWARDS HALLOWEEN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WARM FRONT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 KTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH. THIS
WILL IMPACT KMOT THE MOST WITH WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHERE WINDS COULD GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS LATEST
WIND FORECAST IS JUST A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS HAVE
INDICATED.

IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD RANGE
FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS REMAIN
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA ALTHOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ELEVATED.

REPORTS FROM FIRE MANAGERS INDICATED THAT THE GRASSLANDS ARE
DRY/CURED ENOUGH TO BURN READILY SHOULD WEATHER CONDITIONS REACH
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

HAVE ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN
THE LATEST WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM
FIRE WEATHER...WAA





000
FXUS63 KFGF 232010
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WINDS TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS USHER IN 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TEENS C INTO THE REGION.
WITH DECENT MIXING FROM THE WINDS AND THE MILD AIR MASS...LOWS
WILL STAY IN THE MID 40S IN MOST AREAS. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...BUT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA
WILL BE THE BEGINNINGS OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...AND EVEN WITH
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH AS IT
MOVES EAST...TEMPS SHOULD GET VERY MILD AND APPROACH 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE WINDS. THERE WILL BE
A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH...AND
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD MIXING TO AROUND 850MB. THE GFS IS GUNG HO
ON WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WITH AROUND 40 KTS
POSSIBLE WHILE THE NAM IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW BUT WILL GO CLOSE TO 25 KTS SUSTAINED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH MORE COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE CWA. EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION THINK THAT MIXING
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
AVERAGE ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH RIDGING
TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS BEGIN TO
INDICATE A CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE SUNDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF AND NAM BREAK OUT SOME PRECIP IN OUR
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE 00Z MONDAY...THOUGH THE GEM IS DRY AND GFS IS
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PRECIP. WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THINK THAT BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL RESULT IN A SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT FOR THE NORTHERN TIER
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH
MODELS SFC PATTERN DEPICTIONS AS THE GFS SHOWS A STRONG SFC LOW
OVER NW WI AT 12Z TUE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER EAST WITH THIS
FEATURE. GFS SOLUTION IS MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIP AND HAS HIGHEST
QPF OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES. GFS ALSO MUCH SLOWER AND KEEPS PRECIP
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE ECMWF PUSHES LOW OVER CNTRL GRT
LKS AND ENDS PRECIP TUE NIGHT. CONTINUITY AND UPDATED GRIDS
REPRESENT FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION AND DRY CONDS ON WED...BUT WILL BE
A SYSTEM TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW OVER NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT WINDS
TO PICK UP AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 231947
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
247 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY POINT TO GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY. SHORT TERM
MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE BROAD H500
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
THIS FEATURE WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. WITH MOISTURE BEING LIMITED...THE MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST WINDS. WHILE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED BE
IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY... THEY WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH.
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE SEE SOME
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
AND MOSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY. WITH GOOD MIXING WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD
SEE HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST...TO THE LOWER 60S
NORTHWEST.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE WAY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
AN ONWARDS. BEFOREHAND...FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
LEAD WAVES FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST WITHIN
THE FLOW AND THROUGH OUR AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. OPTED TO INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY DAYTIME WEST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL UNDER THIS PATTERN. QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL BE SATURATED
ENOUGH AT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR ANY
MOISTURE TO REACH THE SURFACE...HENCE THE SLIGHT CHANCE USAGE.

BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALONG TO BEHIND THE WAVE CAA WILL COMMENCE AND MAY SEE A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING IF WE HAVE ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION. HIGHS MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH MORE
OCTOBERISH...MID 40S TO MID 50S. UNCERTAINTY AS WE PROGRESS
TOWARDS HALLOWEEN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WARM FRONT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO EXPECT A DRY FROPA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 30 KTS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH. THIS WILL
IMPACT KMOT THE MOST WITH WINDS. OTHERWISE VFR.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHERE WINDS COULD GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS LATEST
WIND FORECAST IS JUST A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS HAVE
INDICATED.

IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD RANGE
FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS REMAIN
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA ALTHOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ELEVATED.

REPORTS FROM FIRE MANAGERS INDICATED THAT THE GRASSLANDS ARE
DRY/CURED ENOUGH TO BURN READILY SHOULD WEATHER CONDITIONS REACH
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

HAVE ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN
THE LATEST WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...WAA









000
FXUS63 KBIS 231947
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
247 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY POINT TO GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY. SHORT TERM
MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE BROAD H500
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
THIS FEATURE WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. WITH MOISTURE BEING LIMITED...THE MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST WINDS. WHILE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED BE
IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY... THEY WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH.
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE SEE SOME
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
AND MOSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY. WITH GOOD MIXING WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD
SEE HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST...TO THE LOWER 60S
NORTHWEST.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE WAY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
AN ONWARDS. BEFOREHAND...FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
LEAD WAVES FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST WITHIN
THE FLOW AND THROUGH OUR AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. OPTED TO INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY DAYTIME WEST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL UNDER THIS PATTERN. QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL BE SATURATED
ENOUGH AT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR ANY
MOISTURE TO REACH THE SURFACE...HENCE THE SLIGHT CHANCE USAGE.

BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALONG TO BEHIND THE WAVE CAA WILL COMMENCE AND MAY SEE A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING IF WE HAVE ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION. HIGHS MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH MORE
OCTOBERISH...MID 40S TO MID 50S. UNCERTAINTY AS WE PROGRESS
TOWARDS HALLOWEEN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WARM FRONT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO EXPECT A DRY FROPA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 30 KTS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH. THIS WILL
IMPACT KMOT THE MOST WITH WINDS. OTHERWISE VFR.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHERE WINDS COULD GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS LATEST
WIND FORECAST IS JUST A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS HAVE
INDICATED.

IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD RANGE
FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS REMAIN
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA ALTHOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ELEVATED.

REPORTS FROM FIRE MANAGERS INDICATED THAT THE GRASSLANDS ARE
DRY/CURED ENOUGH TO BURN READILY SHOULD WEATHER CONDITIONS REACH
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

HAVE ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN
THE LATEST WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...WAA









000
FXUS63 KBIS 231730
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN ISSUE THIS UPDATE IS SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST. WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER SOME MORE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WILL SPREAD SOME HIGH
THIN CLOUDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. SO ADDED SOME CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES. ONLY CHANGE
TO FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO REMOVE ALL CLOUD COVER AND ADJUST
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TOWARDS CURRENT CONDITIONS. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA
WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW CENTER WAS OVER SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE ALBERTA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND MERGE WITH THE SMALLER MANITOBA
SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP A ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
STAYING NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS IN CANADA WILL KEEP A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOOKING AT
HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...THERE SHOULD BE
GOOD VIEWING OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ON FRIDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE
COOLER AIR WILL BE LATER TO ARRIVE. WITH THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE WINDS...MAINLY OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE
TIGHTEST. STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN WITH AMPLE COLD AIR
ADVECTION. FOR NOW HAVE HELD WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.

UPPER RIDGE PASSING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND MILD
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TROF THEN WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE PLAINS TO START THE WORK WEEK BRINGING OCCASIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE REPLACED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT FROM MONTANA LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
BUT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST IMPACTED WILL BE KMOT FOR
WINDS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 231730
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR THE MID DAY UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

EXTENDED PATCHY FOG MENTION A BIT LONGER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME REDUCED VIS AROUND DETROIT
LAKES AND WADENA. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
AND VIS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE SO NO HEADLINES NEEDED. THE TEMPS SEEM
ON TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THERE IS SOME FOG IN THE FAR EAST...AND WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG
HERE THROUGH 14Z...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND WIND SPEEDS ON FRIDAY...AS
THE WARM AND DRY PATTERN CONTINUES. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NO PREFERENCE THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND HIGHS WARMING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR ALL AREAS WITH A
WARM START THIS MORNING...AND FAVORABLE SW SFC WINDS.

FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL STAY MILD WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AT 850MB
OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...TEMPS SHOULD WARM EVEN WARMER WITH SOME AREAS REACHING
70 WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS. THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
MOVING NORTH IN CANADA...AND SOME MID LEVEL COOLING BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE A DEEP ADIABATIC LAYER UP TO
NEARLY 800MB AND 40KT TO MIX. THEREFORE...EXPECT A WINDY AFTERNOON
IN AT LEAST THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH AND GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
NORTHERN VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS A BIT
COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WED...A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA IS REPLACED BY A FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS A FARTHER SOUTHERN
SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER SOLUTION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING SLOWER OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY INCREASED ON MON AND DECREASED A DEGREE
OR TWO ON TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW OVER NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT WINDS
TO PICK UP AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 231443
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
943 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WILL SPREAD SOME HIGH
THIN CLOUDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. SO ADDED SOME CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES. ONLY CHANGE
TO FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO REMOVE ALL CLOUD COVER AND ADJUST
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TOWARDS CURRENT CONDITIONS. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA
WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW CENTER WAS OVER SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE ALBERTA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND MERGE WITH THE SMALLER MANITOBA
SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP A ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
STAYING NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS IN CANADA WILL KEEP A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOOKING AT
HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...THERE SHOULD BE
GOOD VIEWING OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ON FRIDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE
COOLER AIR WILL BE LATER TO ARRIVE. WITH THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE WINDS...MAINLY OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE
TIGHTEST. STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN WITH AMPLE COLD AIR
ADVECTION. FOR NOW HAVE HELD WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.

UPPER RIDGE PASSING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND MILD
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TROF THEN WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE PLAINS TO START THE WORK WEEK BRINGING OCCASIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 231443
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
943 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WILL SPREAD SOME HIGH
THIN CLOUDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. SO ADDED SOME CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES. ONLY CHANGE
TO FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO REMOVE ALL CLOUD COVER AND ADJUST
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TOWARDS CURRENT CONDITIONS. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA
WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW CENTER WAS OVER SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE ALBERTA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND MERGE WITH THE SMALLER MANITOBA
SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP A ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
STAYING NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS IN CANADA WILL KEEP A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOOKING AT
HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...THERE SHOULD BE
GOOD VIEWING OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ON FRIDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE
COOLER AIR WILL BE LATER TO ARRIVE. WITH THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE WINDS...MAINLY OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE
TIGHTEST. STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN WITH AMPLE COLD AIR
ADVECTION. FOR NOW HAVE HELD WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.

UPPER RIDGE PASSING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND MILD
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TROF THEN WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE PLAINS TO START THE WORK WEEK BRINGING OCCASIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 231442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

EXTENDED PATCHY FOG MENTION A BIT LONGER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME REDUCED VIS AROUND DETROIT
LAKES AND WADENA. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
AND VIS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE SO NO HEADLINES NEEDED. THE TEMPS SEEM
ON TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THERE IS SOME FOG IN THE FAR EAST...AND WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG
HERE THROUGH 14Z...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND WIND SPEEDS ON FRIDAY...AS
THE WARM AND DRY PATTERN CONTINUES. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NO PREFERENCE THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND HIGHS WARMING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR ALL AREAS WITH A
WARM START THIS MORNING...AND FAVORABLE SW SFC WINDS.

FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL STAY MILD WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AT 850MB
OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...TEMPS SHOULD WARM EVEN WARMER WITH SOME AREAS REACHING
70 WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS. THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
MOVING NORTH IN CANADA...AND SOME MID LEVEL COOLING BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE A DEEP ADIABATIC LAYER UP TO
NEARLY 800MB AND 40KT TO MIX. THEREFORE...EXPECT A WINDY AFTERNOON
IN AT LEAST THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH AND GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
NORTHERN VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS A BIT
COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WED...A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA IS REPLACED BY A FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS A FARTHER SOUTHERN
SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER SOLUTION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING SLOWER OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY INCREASED ON MON AND DECREASED A DEGREE
OR TWO ON TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY FOG AND IFR CIGS IN THE FAR EAST FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND SW WINDS AROUND 10KT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 231442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

EXTENDED PATCHY FOG MENTION A BIT LONGER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME REDUCED VIS AROUND DETROIT
LAKES AND WADENA. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
AND VIS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE SO NO HEADLINES NEEDED. THE TEMPS SEEM
ON TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THERE IS SOME FOG IN THE FAR EAST...AND WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG
HERE THROUGH 14Z...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND WIND SPEEDS ON FRIDAY...AS
THE WARM AND DRY PATTERN CONTINUES. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NO PREFERENCE THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND HIGHS WARMING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR ALL AREAS WITH A
WARM START THIS MORNING...AND FAVORABLE SW SFC WINDS.

FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL STAY MILD WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AT 850MB
OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...TEMPS SHOULD WARM EVEN WARMER WITH SOME AREAS REACHING
70 WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS. THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
MOVING NORTH IN CANADA...AND SOME MID LEVEL COOLING BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE A DEEP ADIABATIC LAYER UP TO
NEARLY 800MB AND 40KT TO MIX. THEREFORE...EXPECT A WINDY AFTERNOON
IN AT LEAST THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH AND GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
NORTHERN VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS A BIT
COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WED...A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA IS REPLACED BY A FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS A FARTHER SOUTHERN
SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER SOLUTION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING SLOWER OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY INCREASED ON MON AND DECREASED A DEGREE
OR TWO ON TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY FOG AND IFR CIGS IN THE FAR EAST FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND SW WINDS AROUND 10KT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 231109
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
609 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES. ONLY CHANGE
TO FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO REMOVE ALL CLOUD COVER AND ADJUST
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TOWARDS CURRENT CONDITIONS. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA
WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW CENTER WAS OVER SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE ALBERTA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND MERGE WITH THE SMALLER MANITOBA
SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP A ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
STAYING NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS IN CANADA WILL KEEP A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOOKING AT
HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...THERE SHOULD BE
GOOD VIEWING OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ON FRIDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE
COOLER AIR WILL BE LATER TO ARRIVE. WITH THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE WINDS...MAINLY OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE
TIGHTEST. STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN WITH AMPLE COLD AIR
ADVECTION. FOR NOW HAVE HELD WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.

UPPER RIDGE PASSING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND MILD
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TROF THEN WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE PLAINS TO START THE WORK WEEK BRINGING OCCASIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 00Z. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 00Z AND MOVE/EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE STATE
THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 231103
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
603 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THERE IS SOME FOG IN THE FAR EAST...AND WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG
HERE THROUGH 14Z...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND WIND SPEEDS ON FRIDAY...AS
THE WARM AND DRY PATTERN CONTINUES. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NO PREFERENCE THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND HIGHS WARMING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR ALL AREAS WITH A
WARM START THIS MORNING...AND FAVORABLE SW SFC WINDS.

FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL STAY MILD WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AT 850MB
OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...TEMPS SHOULD WARM EVEN WARMER WITH SOME AREAS REACHING
70 WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS. THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
MOVING NORTH IN CANADA...AND SOME MID LEVEL COOLING BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE A DEEP ADIABATIC LAYER UP TO
NEARLY 800MB AND 40KT TO MIX. THEREFORE...EXPECT A WINDY AFTERNOON
IN AT LEAST THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH AND GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
NORTHERN VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS A BIT
COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WED...A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA IS REPLACED BY A FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS A FARTHER SOUTHERN
SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER SOLUTION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING SLOWER OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY INCREASED ON MON AND DECREASED A DEGREE
OR TWO ON TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY FOG AND IFR CIGS IN THE FAR EAST FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND SW WINDS AROUND 10KT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 230900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND WIND SPEEDS ON FRIDAY...AS
THE WARM AND DRY PATTERN CONTINUES. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NO PREFERENCE THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND HIGHS WARMING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR ALL AREAS WITH A
WARM START THIS MORNING...AND FAVORABLE SW SFC WINDS.

FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL STAY MILD WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AT 850MB
OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...TEMPS SHOULD WARM EVEN WARMER WITH SOME AREAS REACHING
70 WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS. THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
MOVING NORTH IN CANADA...AND SOME MID LEVEL COOLING BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE A DEEP ADIABATIC LAYER UP TO
NEARLY 800MB AND 40KT TO MIX. THEREFORE...EXPECT A WINDY AFTERNOON
IN AT LEAST THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH AND GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
NORTHERN VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS A BIT
COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WED...A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA IS REPLACED BY A FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS A FARTHER SOUTHERN
SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER SOLUTION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING SLOWER OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY INCREASED ON MON AND DECREASED A DEGREE
OR TWO ON TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS ON BACK EDGE OF DEPARTING RAIN BAND WILL
EXIT FA TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO LEAVING THE FA VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
AT THIS POINT ON FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY.
MAINTAINED MENTION AT BJI LEAVING REMAINDER FOG FREE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 230843
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
343 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA
WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW CENTER WAS OVER SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE ALBERTA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND MERGE WITH THE SMALLER MANITOBA
SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP A ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
STAYING NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS IN CANADA WILL KEEP A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOOKING AT
HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...THERE SHOULD BE
GOOD VIEWING OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ON FRIDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE
COOLER AIR WILL BE LATER TO ARRIVE. WITH THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE WINDS...MAINLY OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE
TIGHTEST. STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN WITH AMPLE COLD AIR
ADVECTION. FOR NOW HAVE HELD WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.

UPPER RIDGE PASSING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND MILD
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TROF THEN WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE PLAINS TO START THE WORK WEEK BRINGING OCCASIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 00Z. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 00Z AND MOVE/EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE STATE
THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 230538
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1238 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ONLY A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT IN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MADE FOR THIS
UPDATE. HETTINGER WAS ALREADY REPORTING 33 DEGREES...A TAD BELOW THE
FORECAST MINIMUM. EXPECTING A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND TONIGHT SO WAS
NOT CONFIDENT ON LOWERING TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH IN THE WEST.
OTHERWISE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER
CENTRAL MANITOBA WAS OVER THE MINOT/TURTLE MOUNTAIN/NORTHERN JAMES
VALLEY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST...AND EXPECT
CLOUDS TO MOVE EASTWARD AND BE OUT OF THE AREA IN 2-3 HOURS. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...REMOVED SHOWERS FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON
FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. OTHERWISE...ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITING THE REGION VIA SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. NORTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING IN SOME STRATO CU ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AND WILL EXIT THE REGION BY MID EVENING. ACROSS THE
EAST AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION AND WILL
CARRY THE SHOWERS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BE
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 7 PM CDT. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRYER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. GOOD VIEWING
OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TREND ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH ALL THE
DYNAMICS NORTH AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE STATE. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL PUSH
OFF TO THE EAST AS THE MODELS POINT TO A TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE MODELS
DIFFER GREATLY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN NEAR
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CIGS OVER KMOT HAS MOVED EAST...BUT SOME LINGERING SCATTERED
CLOUDS NEAR KJMS MAY AFFECT KJMS FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 00Z. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 00Z AND MOVE/EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE STATE
THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 230445
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO ADD PATCHY FOG FROM THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN FA. THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO
SEE DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING AS RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO THIN
WITH SHOWERS ALL EAST OF THE RED RIVER. STILL EXPECT -RA TO CLEAR
THE FA BY MID EVENING. WILL SEE HOW RAIN BAND HOLDS TOGETHER
FARTHER E AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND CLEARING TRENDS
AS THE PCPN BAND MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
CLOUDS WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO THICKEN ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE PCPN BAND ALSO FILLED IN AND HAS BECOME
CONTINUOUS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS AND
METAR REPORTS SHOW VERY LITTLE AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO WITH
MOST LOCATIONS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS THIN BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE FA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
ARE ALONG A KMOT TO KBIS LINE AND THESE ARE ALSO PROGRESSING TO
THE EAST. THERE ARE ALSO SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST ND
WHICH MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN FA LATER IN THE
EVENING. OVERALL THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. BIGGEST CHANGE WILL PROBABLY BE
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

LOOKING AT MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT ON FRIDAY AS THE
WARMEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPS WORK INTO THE FA ON SAT
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH MODELS
AGREEING THAT A BROAD SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWFA. THE RESULTANT FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAKE FOR A SEASONALLY
COOL NIGHT. THINGS CHANGE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THEY OFTEN DO IN THE
FALL...SO THAT BY 18Z SUNDAY A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS.
BRISK...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. WITH SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWFA EXPECT A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. LOW POPS IN BLEND MAKE SENSE GIVING THE NORTHWARD
RUSH OF RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE. ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWS AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW SENDS ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COMBINED WITH STRONG OPEN WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL DEPICTION OF -SHRA IN UPGLIDE AREA NORTHWEST
OF LOW MAKES SENSE. A MIX POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH CRITICAL
THICKNESS AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF WEDNESDAY IT LEAVES A WEAK BOUNDARY
STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWFA. WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE
AND UPPER SHEAR AXIS DEPICTED IN GFS LOW POP -SHRA...MAYBE MORNING
MIX SEEMS LOGICAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS ON BACK EDGE OF DEPARTING RAIN BAND WILL
EXIT FA TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO LEAVING THE FA VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
AT THIS POINT ON FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY.
MAINTAINED MENTION AT BJI LEAVING REMAINDER FOG FREE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/EWENS
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 230445
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO ADD PATCHY FOG FROM THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN FA. THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO
SEE DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING AS RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO THIN
WITH SHOWERS ALL EAST OF THE RED RIVER. STILL EXPECT -RA TO CLEAR
THE FA BY MID EVENING. WILL SEE HOW RAIN BAND HOLDS TOGETHER
FARTHER E AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND CLEARING TRENDS
AS THE PCPN BAND MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
CLOUDS WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO THICKEN ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE PCPN BAND ALSO FILLED IN AND HAS BECOME
CONTINUOUS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS AND
METAR REPORTS SHOW VERY LITTLE AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO WITH
MOST LOCATIONS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS THIN BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE FA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
ARE ALONG A KMOT TO KBIS LINE AND THESE ARE ALSO PROGRESSING TO
THE EAST. THERE ARE ALSO SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST ND
WHICH MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN FA LATER IN THE
EVENING. OVERALL THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. BIGGEST CHANGE WILL PROBABLY BE
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

LOOKING AT MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT ON FRIDAY AS THE
WARMEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPS WORK INTO THE FA ON SAT
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH MODELS
AGREEING THAT A BROAD SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWFA. THE RESULTANT FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAKE FOR A SEASONALLY
COOL NIGHT. THINGS CHANGE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THEY OFTEN DO IN THE
FALL...SO THAT BY 18Z SUNDAY A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS.
BRISK...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. WITH SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWFA EXPECT A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. LOW POPS IN BLEND MAKE SENSE GIVING THE NORTHWARD
RUSH OF RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE. ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWS AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW SENDS ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COMBINED WITH STRONG OPEN WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL DEPICTION OF -SHRA IN UPGLIDE AREA NORTHWEST
OF LOW MAKES SENSE. A MIX POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH CRITICAL
THICKNESS AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF WEDNESDAY IT LEAVES A WEAK BOUNDARY
STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWFA. WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE
AND UPPER SHEAR AXIS DEPICTED IN GFS LOW POP -SHRA...MAYBE MORNING
MIX SEEMS LOGICAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS ON BACK EDGE OF DEPARTING RAIN BAND WILL
EXIT FA TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO LEAVING THE FA VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
AT THIS POINT ON FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY.
MAINTAINED MENTION AT BJI LEAVING REMAINDER FOG FREE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/EWENS
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 230445
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO ADD PATCHY FOG FROM THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN FA. THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO
SEE DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING AS RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO THIN
WITH SHOWERS ALL EAST OF THE RED RIVER. STILL EXPECT -RA TO CLEAR
THE FA BY MID EVENING. WILL SEE HOW RAIN BAND HOLDS TOGETHER
FARTHER E AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND CLEARING TRENDS
AS THE PCPN BAND MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
CLOUDS WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO THICKEN ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE PCPN BAND ALSO FILLED IN AND HAS BECOME
CONTINUOUS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS AND
METAR REPORTS SHOW VERY LITTLE AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO WITH
MOST LOCATIONS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS THIN BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE FA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
ARE ALONG A KMOT TO KBIS LINE AND THESE ARE ALSO PROGRESSING TO
THE EAST. THERE ARE ALSO SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST ND
WHICH MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN FA LATER IN THE
EVENING. OVERALL THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. BIGGEST CHANGE WILL PROBABLY BE
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

LOOKING AT MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT ON FRIDAY AS THE
WARMEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPS WORK INTO THE FA ON SAT
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH MODELS
AGREEING THAT A BROAD SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWFA. THE RESULTANT FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAKE FOR A SEASONALLY
COOL NIGHT. THINGS CHANGE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THEY OFTEN DO IN THE
FALL...SO THAT BY 18Z SUNDAY A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS.
BRISK...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. WITH SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWFA EXPECT A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. LOW POPS IN BLEND MAKE SENSE GIVING THE NORTHWARD
RUSH OF RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE. ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWS AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW SENDS ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COMBINED WITH STRONG OPEN WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL DEPICTION OF -SHRA IN UPGLIDE AREA NORTHWEST
OF LOW MAKES SENSE. A MIX POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH CRITICAL
THICKNESS AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF WEDNESDAY IT LEAVES A WEAK BOUNDARY
STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWFA. WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE
AND UPPER SHEAR AXIS DEPICTED IN GFS LOW POP -SHRA...MAYBE MORNING
MIX SEEMS LOGICAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS ON BACK EDGE OF DEPARTING RAIN BAND WILL
EXIT FA TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO LEAVING THE FA VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
AT THIS POINT ON FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY.
MAINTAINED MENTION AT BJI LEAVING REMAINDER FOG FREE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/EWENS
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 230445
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO ADD PATCHY FOG FROM THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN FA. THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO
SEE DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING AS RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO THIN
WITH SHOWERS ALL EAST OF THE RED RIVER. STILL EXPECT -RA TO CLEAR
THE FA BY MID EVENING. WILL SEE HOW RAIN BAND HOLDS TOGETHER
FARTHER E AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND CLEARING TRENDS
AS THE PCPN BAND MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
CLOUDS WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO THICKEN ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE PCPN BAND ALSO FILLED IN AND HAS BECOME
CONTINUOUS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS AND
METAR REPORTS SHOW VERY LITTLE AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO WITH
MOST LOCATIONS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS THIN BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE FA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
ARE ALONG A KMOT TO KBIS LINE AND THESE ARE ALSO PROGRESSING TO
THE EAST. THERE ARE ALSO SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST ND
WHICH MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN FA LATER IN THE
EVENING. OVERALL THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. BIGGEST CHANGE WILL PROBABLY BE
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

LOOKING AT MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT ON FRIDAY AS THE
WARMEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPS WORK INTO THE FA ON SAT
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH MODELS
AGREEING THAT A BROAD SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWFA. THE RESULTANT FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAKE FOR A SEASONALLY
COOL NIGHT. THINGS CHANGE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THEY OFTEN DO IN THE
FALL...SO THAT BY 18Z SUNDAY A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS.
BRISK...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. WITH SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWFA EXPECT A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. LOW POPS IN BLEND MAKE SENSE GIVING THE NORTHWARD
RUSH OF RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE. ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWS AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW SENDS ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COMBINED WITH STRONG OPEN WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL DEPICTION OF -SHRA IN UPGLIDE AREA NORTHWEST
OF LOW MAKES SENSE. A MIX POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH CRITICAL
THICKNESS AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF WEDNESDAY IT LEAVES A WEAK BOUNDARY
STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWFA. WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE
AND UPPER SHEAR AXIS DEPICTED IN GFS LOW POP -SHRA...MAYBE MORNING
MIX SEEMS LOGICAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS ON BACK EDGE OF DEPARTING RAIN BAND WILL
EXIT FA TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO LEAVING THE FA VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
AT THIS POINT ON FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY.
MAINTAINED MENTION AT BJI LEAVING REMAINDER FOG FREE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/EWENS
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 230257
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
957 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO ADD PATCHY FOG FROM THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN FA. THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO
SEE DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING AS RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO THIN
WITH SHOWERS ALL EAST OF THE RED RIVER. STILL EXPECT -RA TO CLEAR
THE FA BY MID EVENING. WILL SEE HOW RAIN BAND HOLDS TOGETHER
FARTHER E AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND CLEARING TRENDS
AS THE PCPN BAND MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
CLOUDS WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO THICKEN ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE PCPN BAND ALSO FILLED IN AND HAS BECOME
CONTINUOUS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS AND
METAR REPORTS SHOW VERY LITTLE AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO WITH
MOST LOCATIONS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS THIN BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE FA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
ARE ALONG A KMOT TO KBIS LINE AND THESE ARE ALSO PROGRESSING TO
THE EAST. THERE ARE ALSO SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST ND
WHICH MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN FA LATER IN THE
EVENING. OVERALL THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. BIGGEST CHANGE WILL PROBABLY BE
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

LOOKING AT MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT ON FRIDAY AS THE
WARMEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPS WORK INTO THE FA ON SAT
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH MODELS
AGREEING THAT A BROAD SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWFA. THE RESULTANT FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAKE FOR A SEASONALLY
COOL NIGHT. THINGS CHANGE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THEY OFTEN DO IN THE
FALL...SO THAT BY 18Z SUNDAY A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS.
BRISK...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. WITH SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWFA EXPECT A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. LOW POPS IN BLEND MAKE SENSE GIVING THE NORTHWARD
RUSH OF RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE. ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWS AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW SENDS ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COMBINED WITH STRONG OPEN WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL DEPICTION OF -SHRA IN UPGLIDE AREA NORTHWEST
OF LOW MAKES SENSE. A MIX POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH CRITICAL
THICKNESS AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF WEDNESDAY IT LEAVES A WEAK BOUNDARY
STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWFA. WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE
AND UPPER SHEAR AXIS DEPICTED IN GFS LOW POP -SHRA...MAYBE MORNING
MIX SEEMS LOGICAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

RAIN HAS CLEARED AREAS WEST OF THE RED RIVER AND WITH RAIN BAND
SHRINKING AND PROGRESSIVE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE OVER EAST OF THE
VALLEY BY MID EVENING. SOME WRAP AROUND LOW VFR CIGS MAY AFFECT
NORTHERN TAF SITES WITH THE REMAINDER CLEARING FROM W-E. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR BR OVER THE FAR EAST AND MENTIONED SOME BR IN THE
BJI TAF. REMAINDER OF THE SITES WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED TOMORROW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/EWENS
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 230235
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
935 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...REMOVED SHOWERS FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON
FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. OTHERWISE...ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITING THE REGION VIA SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. NORTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING IN SOME STRATO CU ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AND WILL EXIT THE REGION BY MID EVENING. ACROSS THE
EAST AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION AND WILL
CARRY THE SHOWERS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BE
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 7 PM CDT. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRYER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. GOOD VIEWING
OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TREND ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH ALL THE
DYNAMICS NORTH AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE STATE. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL PUSH
OFF TO THE EAST AS THE MODELS POINT TO A TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE MODELS
DIFFER GREATLY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN NEAR
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CIGS OVER KMOT WILL CLEAR OUT BY 03Z THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING
WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TM







000
FXUS63 KFGF 222335
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
635 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING AS RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO THIN
WITH SHOWERS ALL EAST OF THE RED RIVER. STILL EXPECT -RA TO CLEAR
THE FA BY MID EVENING. WILL SEE HOW RAIN BAND HOLDS TOGETHER
FARTHER E AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND CLEARING TRENDS
AS THE PCPN BAND MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
CLOUDS WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO THICKEN ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE PCPN BAND ALSO FILLED IN AND HAS BECOME
CONTINUOUS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS AND
METAR REPORTS SHOW VERY LITTLE AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO WITH
MOST LOCATIONS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS THIN BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE FA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
ARE ALONG A KMOT TO KBIS LINE AND THESE ARE ALSO PROGRESSING TO
THE EAST. THERE ARE ALSO SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST ND
WHICH MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN FA LATER IN THE
EVENING. OVERALL THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. BIGGEST CHANGE WILL PROBABLY BE
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

LOOKING AT MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT ON FRIDAY AS THE
WARMEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPS WORK INTO THE FA ON SAT
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH MODELS
AGREEING THAT A BROAD SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWFA. THE RESULTANT FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAKE FOR A SEASONALLY
COOL NIGHT. THINGS CHANGE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THEY OFTEN DO IN THE
FALL...SO THAT BY 18Z SUNDAY A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS.
BRISK...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. WITH SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWFA EXPECT A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. LOW POPS IN BLEND MAKE SENSE GIVING THE NORTHWARD
RUSH OF RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE. ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWS AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW SENDS ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COMBINED WITH STRONG OPEN WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL DEPICTION OF -SHRA IN UPGLIDE AREA NORTHWEST
OF LOW MAKES SENSE. A MIX POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH CRITICAL
THICKNESS AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF WEDNESDAY IT LEAVES A WEAK BOUNDARY
STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWFA. WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE
AND UPPER SHEAR AXIS DEPICTED IN GFS LOW POP -SHRA...MAYBE MORNING
MIX SEEMS LOGICAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

RAIN HAS CLEARED AREAS WEST OF THE RED RIVER AND WITH RAIN BAND
SHRINKING AND PROGRESSIVE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE OVER EAST OF THE
VALLEY BY MID EVENING. SOME WRAP AROUND LOW VFR CIGS MAY AFFECT
NORTHERN TAF SITES WITH THE REMAINDER CLEARING FROM W-E. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR BR OVER THE FAR EAST AND MENTIONED SOME BR IN THE
BJI TAF. REMAINDER OF THE SITES WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED TOMORROW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/EWENS
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 222255
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
555 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...REMOVED SHOWERS FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON
FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. OTHERWISE...ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITING THE REGION VIA SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. NORTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING IN SOME STRATO CU ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AND WILL EXIT THE REGION BY MID EVENING. ACROSS THE
EAST AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION AND WILL
CARRY THE SHOWERS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BE
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 7 PM CDT. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRYER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. GOOD VIEWING
OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TREND ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH ALL THE
DYNAMICS NORTH AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE STATE. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL PUSH
OFF TO THE EAST AS THE MODELS POINT TO A TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE MODELS
DIFFER GREATLY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN NEAR
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CIGS OVER KMOT WILL CLEAR OUT BY 03Z THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING
WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 222255
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
555 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...REMOVED SHOWERS FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON
FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. OTHERWISE...ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITING THE REGION VIA SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. NORTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING IN SOME STRATO CU ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AND WILL EXIT THE REGION BY MID EVENING. ACROSS THE
EAST AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION AND WILL
CARRY THE SHOWERS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BE
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 7 PM CDT. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRYER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. GOOD VIEWING
OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TREND ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH ALL THE
DYNAMICS NORTH AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE STATE. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL PUSH
OFF TO THE EAST AS THE MODELS POINT TO A TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE MODELS
DIFFER GREATLY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN NEAR
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CIGS OVER KMOT WILL CLEAR OUT BY 03Z THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING
WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 221958
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITING THE REGION VIA SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. NORTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING IN SOME STRATO CU ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AND WILL EXIT THE REGION BY MID EVENING. ACROSS THE
EAST AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION AND WILL
CARRY THE SHOWERS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BE
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 7 PM CDT. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRYER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. GOOD VIEWING
OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TREND ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH ALL THE
DYNAMICS NORTH AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE STATE. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL PUSH
OFF TO THE EAST AS THE MODELS POINT TO A TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE MODELS
DIFFER GREATLY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN NEAR
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL BRING STRATO CU ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, THIS WILL IMPACT
KISN-KMOT WITH LOW VFR CLOUDS. OTHERWISE SHOWERS WILL END AT KJMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND VFR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA









000
FXUS63 KFGF 221954
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND CLEARING TRENDS
AS THE PCPN BAND MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
CLOUDS WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO THICKEN ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE PCPN BAND ALSO FILLED IN AND HAS BECOME
CONTINUOUS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS AND
METAR REPORTS SHOW VERY LITTLE AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO WITH
MOST LOCATIONS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS THIN BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE FA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
ARE ALONG A KMOT TO KBIS LINE AND THESE ARE ALSO PROGRESSING TO
THE EAST. THERE ARE ALSO SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST ND
WHICH MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN FA LATER IN THE
EVENING. OVERALL THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. BIGGEST CHANGE WILL PROBABLY BE
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

LOOKING AT MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT ON FRIDAY AS THE
WARMEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPS WORK INTO THE FA ON SAT
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH MODELS
AGREEING THAT A BROAD SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWFA. THE RESULTANT FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAKE FOR A SEASONALLY
COOL NIGHT. THINGS CHANGE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THEY OFTEN DO IN THE
FALL...SO THAT BY 18Z SUNDAY A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS.
BRISK...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. WITH SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWFA EXPECT A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. LOW POPS IN BLEND MAKE SENSE GIVING THE NORTHWARD
RUSH OF RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE. ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWS AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW SENDS ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COMBINED WITH STRONG OPEN WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL DEPICTION OF -SHRA IN UPGLIDE AREA NORTHWEST
OF LOW MAKES SENSE. A MIX POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH CRITICAL
THICKNESS AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF WEDNESDAY IT LEAVES A WEAK BOUNDARY
STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWFA. WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE
AND UPPER SHEAR AXIS DEPICTED IN GFS LOW POP -SHRA...MAYBE MORNING
MIX SEEMS LOGICAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

GUSTY WINDS AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES WILL DECREASE AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS GFK/FAR
AND TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANY INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION SO BELIEVE THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE LOW. OTHERWISE...
IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME CIGS NEARING MVFR IN MODERATE
RAIN. HAVE BEEN WATCHING CENTRAL SD FOR TRENDS. AFTER THIS
EVENING...SKIES CLEAR OUT. THE NAM TRIES TO BRING IN LOW IFR CIGS
TO KBJI LATE TONIGHT. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER. THE
SREF ENSEMBLE HAS LOW CIGS FURTHER EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/EWENS
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 221742
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN FA HAVE REALLY TAPERED
BACK BUT ARE INCREASING AGAIN JUST TO THE SW OF THE FA. THESE
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD BACK INTO THE FA THIS AFTERNOON...TAKING
LONGEST TO GET INTO AREAS EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. CUT BACK A
LITTLE MORE ON EXPECTED PCPN AMOUNTS TOO AS UPSTREAM LOCATIONS
HAVE NOT BEEN GETTING VERY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS
NOSING INTO NV. JET WAS UNDERCUTTING SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTS EAST WED NIGHT. SHOWALTER BECOME NEGATIVE AS
850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO DIG A BIT
FRI WITH DOWN STREAM AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE/TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS RESPECTIVELY. MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED
ATMOSPHERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG/150+ KNOT/ UPPER LEVEL JET TO NOSE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA FRI. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...EXPECT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPS
COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY...AND DIFFER THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY DEALING WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD
ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KDVL WILL LIGHTEN UP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE KDVL
WILL STAY W/SW AND LIGHTEN UP DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...RK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 221742
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN FA HAVE REALLY TAPERED
BACK BUT ARE INCREASING AGAIN JUST TO THE SW OF THE FA. THESE
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD BACK INTO THE FA THIS AFTERNOON...TAKING
LONGEST TO GET INTO AREAS EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. CUT BACK A
LITTLE MORE ON EXPECTED PCPN AMOUNTS TOO AS UPSTREAM LOCATIONS
HAVE NOT BEEN GETTING VERY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS
NOSING INTO NV. JET WAS UNDERCUTTING SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTS EAST WED NIGHT. SHOWALTER BECOME NEGATIVE AS
850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO DIG A BIT
FRI WITH DOWN STREAM AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE/TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS RESPECTIVELY. MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED
ATMOSPHERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG/150+ KNOT/ UPPER LEVEL JET TO NOSE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA FRI. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...EXPECT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPS
COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY...AND DIFFER THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY DEALING WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD
ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KDVL WILL LIGHTEN UP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE KDVL
WILL STAY W/SW AND LIGHTEN UP DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...RK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 221741
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1241 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AFTER 1 PM CDT. CLEARING CLOUDS SOUTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. STRATO CU ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
FROM THE UPPER LOW CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GRADUAL
CLEARING SOUTH CENTRAL. SHOWERS DIMINISHING AND MOVING EAST THIS
AFTERNOON JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW EXPECTED BETWEEN MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER
VALLEYS NORTH TI DEVILS LAKE BASIN. LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THE MORNING EAST CENTRAL. TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS LOOK GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THUNDER
MENTION OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY REMAINS INDICATED BY A WEAK THUNDERSTORM MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN WELLS COUNTY. HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A
BIT THROUGH THE DAY MAINLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PUSHING FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHWEST MANITOBA WHILE COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA STRETCHING JUST TO THE WEST OF A LINE
FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH AXIS
SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA INTO WESTERN WYOMING WITH RIDGE
OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS IS BRINGING ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
OUR AREA WITH A VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES SLIDING THROUGH AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH...WHICH HAS BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TODAY...TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION SLIDING
OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS...COMBINED WITH PROGRESSING COLD
FRONT...WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES COMING LATER TODAY MAINLY OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS MAIN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AS RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BRINGING QUIET CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS BROAD
RIDGE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CONTINUED WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST AS MODELS TRY TO BRING A BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION.
MOST MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN
WILL SPREAD STRATO CU ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO KMOT WITH LOW
VFR TO MVFR POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON KISN-KMOT. SHOWERS ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR
WITH DECREASING WINDS THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 221741
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1241 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AFTER 1 PM CDT. CLEARING CLOUDS SOUTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. STRATO CU ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
FROM THE UPPER LOW CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GRADUAL
CLEARING SOUTH CENTRAL. SHOWERS DIMINISHING AND MOVING EAST THIS
AFTERNOON JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW EXPECTED BETWEEN MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER
VALLEYS NORTH TI DEVILS LAKE BASIN. LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THE MORNING EAST CENTRAL. TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS LOOK GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THUNDER
MENTION OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY REMAINS INDICATED BY A WEAK THUNDERSTORM MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN WELLS COUNTY. HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A
BIT THROUGH THE DAY MAINLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PUSHING FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHWEST MANITOBA WHILE COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA STRETCHING JUST TO THE WEST OF A LINE
FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH AXIS
SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA INTO WESTERN WYOMING WITH RIDGE
OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS IS BRINGING ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
OUR AREA WITH A VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES SLIDING THROUGH AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH...WHICH HAS BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TODAY...TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION SLIDING
OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS...COMBINED WITH PROGRESSING COLD
FRONT...WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES COMING LATER TODAY MAINLY OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS MAIN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AS RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BRINGING QUIET CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS BROAD
RIDGE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CONTINUED WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST AS MODELS TRY TO BRING A BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION.
MOST MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN
WILL SPREAD STRATO CU ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO KMOT WITH LOW
VFR TO MVFR POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON KISN-KMOT. SHOWERS ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR
WITH DECREASING WINDS THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 221703
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1203 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TODAY NOT LOOKING QUITE AS BAD AS MODELS WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY.
THERE IS ACTUALLY A LOT OF MORNING SUNSHINE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. A LITTLE BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IS OUT ACROSS THE
KDVL REGION WHERE SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH. FOR
THE MOST PART ANY CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS HAVE ALL
BEEN MID OR HIGH LEVEL. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES OUT THAT WAY BUT THESE HAVE BEEN ON THE WANE. THEREFORE
WILL JUST GO WITH SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY AS IT DOES LOOK MORE
STABLE THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS. HAVE TRIED TO NARROW DOWN THE PCPN
AREA A LITTLE MORE AS THESE SHOWERS ARE IN A THIN BAND SO FAR AND
ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE PCPN. THEY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE NOON HOUR AND THEN EASTWARD INTO MN THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY RATHER GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING
AND SHOULD THEN BEGIN A SLOW DECREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS
NOSING INTO NV. JET WAS UNDERCUTTING SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTS EAST WED NIGHT. SHOWALTER BECOME NEGATIVE AS
850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO DIG A BIT
FRI WITH DOWN STREAM AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE/TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS RESPECTIVELY. MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED
ATMOSPHERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG/150+ KNOT/ UPPER LEVEL JET TO NOSE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA FRI. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...EXPECT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPS
COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY...AND DIFFER THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

GUSTY WINDS AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES WILL DECREASE AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS GFK/FAR
AND TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANY INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION SO BELIEVE THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE LOW. OTHERWISE...
IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME CIGS NEARING MVFR IN MODERATE
RAIN. HAVE BEEN WATCHING CENTRAL SD FOR TRENDS. AFTER THIS
EVENING...SKIES CLEAR OUT. THE NAM TRIES TO BRING IN LOW IFR CIGS
TO KBJI LATE TONIGHT. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER. THE
SREF ENSEMBLE HAS LOW CIGS FURTHER EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 221703
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1203 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TODAY NOT LOOKING QUITE AS BAD AS MODELS WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY.
THERE IS ACTUALLY A LOT OF MORNING SUNSHINE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. A LITTLE BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IS OUT ACROSS THE
KDVL REGION WHERE SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH. FOR
THE MOST PART ANY CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS HAVE ALL
BEEN MID OR HIGH LEVEL. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES OUT THAT WAY BUT THESE HAVE BEEN ON THE WANE. THEREFORE
WILL JUST GO WITH SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY AS IT DOES LOOK MORE
STABLE THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS. HAVE TRIED TO NARROW DOWN THE PCPN
AREA A LITTLE MORE AS THESE SHOWERS ARE IN A THIN BAND SO FAR AND
ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE PCPN. THEY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE NOON HOUR AND THEN EASTWARD INTO MN THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY RATHER GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING
AND SHOULD THEN BEGIN A SLOW DECREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS
NOSING INTO NV. JET WAS UNDERCUTTING SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTS EAST WED NIGHT. SHOWALTER BECOME NEGATIVE AS
850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO DIG A BIT
FRI WITH DOWN STREAM AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE/TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS RESPECTIVELY. MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED
ATMOSPHERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG/150+ KNOT/ UPPER LEVEL JET TO NOSE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA FRI. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...EXPECT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPS
COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY...AND DIFFER THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

GUSTY WINDS AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES WILL DECREASE AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS GFK/FAR
AND TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANY INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION SO BELIEVE THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE LOW. OTHERWISE...
IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME CIGS NEARING MVFR IN MODERATE
RAIN. HAVE BEEN WATCHING CENTRAL SD FOR TRENDS. AFTER THIS
EVENING...SKIES CLEAR OUT. THE NAM TRIES TO BRING IN LOW IFR CIGS
TO KBJI LATE TONIGHT. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER. THE
SREF ENSEMBLE HAS LOW CIGS FURTHER EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG







000
FXUS63 KBIS 221454
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
954 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW EXPECTED BETWEEN MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER
VALLEYS NORTH TI DEVILS LAKE BASIN. LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THE MORNING EAST CENTRAL. TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS LOOK GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THUNDER
MENTION OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY REMAINS INDICATED BY A WEAK THUNDERSTORM MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN WELLS COUNTY. HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A
BIT THROUGH THE DAY MAINLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PUSHING FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHWEST MANITOBA WHILE COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA STRETCHING JUST TO THE WEST OF A LINE
FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH AXIS
SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA INTO WESTERN WYOMING WITH RIDGE
OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS IS BRINGING ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
OUR AREA WITH A VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES SLIDING THROUGH AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH...WHICH HAS BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TODAY...TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION SLIDING
OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS...COMBINED WITH PROGRESSING COLD
FRONT...WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES COMING LATER TODAY MAINLY OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS MAIN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AS RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BRINGING QUIET CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS BROAD
RIDGE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CONTINUED WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST AS MODELS TRY TO BRING A BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION.
MOST MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH A WESTERLY WIND 15 TO 25 KTS DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 221439
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
939 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TODAY NOT LOOKING QUITE AS BAD AS MODELS WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY.
THERE IS ACTUALLY A LOT OF MORNING SUNSHINE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. A LITTLE BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IS OUT ACROSS THE
KDVL REGION WHERE SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH. FOR
THE MOST PART ANY CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS HAVE ALL
BEEN MID OR HIGH LEVEL. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES OUT THAT WAY BUT THESE HAVE BEEN ON THE WANE. THEREFORE
WILL JUST GO WITH SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY AS IT DOES LOOK MORE
STABLE THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS. HAVE TRIED TO NARROW DOWN THE PCPN
AREA A LITTLE MORE AS THESE SHOWERS ARE IN A THIN BAND SO FAR AND
ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE PCPN. THEY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE NOON HOUR AND THEN EASTWARD INTO MN THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY RATHER GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING
AND SHOULD THEN BEGIN A SLOW DECREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS
NOSING INTO NV. JET WAS UNDERCUTTING SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTS EAST WED NIGHT. SHOWALTER BECOME NEGATIVE AS
850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO DIG A BIT
FRI WITH DOWN STREAM AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE/TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS RESPECTIVELY. MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED
ATMOSPHERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG/150+ KNOT/ UPPER LEVEL JET TO NOSE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA FRI. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...EXPECT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPS
COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY...AND DIFFER THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A NARROW BAND OF
BROKEN CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND 45 HUNDRED FT EXTENDED FROM AXN TO
TVF. BAND WAS MOVING TO THE EAST AT 20-25 KNOTS. PATCHY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WERE OVER EASTERN ND. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...HOPPES







000
FXUS63 KFGF 221203
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
703 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAY ADJUST POPS DOWN FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS
NOSING INTO NV. JET WAS UNDERCUTTING SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTS EAST WED NIGHT. SHOWALTER BECOME NEGATIVE AS
850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO DIG A BIT
FRI WITH DOWN STREAM AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE/TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS RESPECTIVELY. MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED
ATMOSPHERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG/150+ KNOT/ UPPER LEVEL JET TO NOSE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA FRI. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...EXPECT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPS
COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY...AND DIFFER THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A NARROW BAND OF
BROKEN CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND 45 HUNDRED FT EXTENDED FROM AXN TO
TVF. BAND WAS MOVING TO THE EAST AT 20-25 KNOTS. PATCHY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WERE OVER EASTERN ND. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KBIS 221130
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
630 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THUNDER
MENTION OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY REMAINS INDICATED BY A WEAK THUNDERSTORM MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN WELLS COUNTY. HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A
BIT THROUGH THE DAY MAINLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PUSHING FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHWEST MANITOBA WHILE COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA STRETCHING JUST TO THE WEST OF A LINE
FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH AXIS
SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA INTO WESTERN WYOMING WITH RIDGE
OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS IS BRINGING ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
OUR AREA WITH A VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES SLIDING THROUGH AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH...WHICH HAS BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TODAY...TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION SLIDING
OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS...COMBINED WITH PROGRESSING COLD
FRONT...WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES COMING LATER TODAY MAINLY OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS MAIN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AS RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BRINGING QUIET CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS BROAD
RIDGE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CONTINUED WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST AS MODELS TRY TO BRING A BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION.
MOST MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SCT -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...WITH CHANCES PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
ISOLD -TSRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING BY EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 220900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS
NOSING INTO NV. JET WAS UNDERCUTTING SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTS EAST WED NIGHT. SHOWALTER BECOME NEGATIVE AS
850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO DIG A BIT
FRI WITH DOWN STREAM AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE/TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS RESPECTIVELY. MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED
ATMOSPHERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG/150+ KNOT/ UPPER LEVEL JET TO NOSE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA FRI. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...EXPECT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPS
COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY...AND DIFFER THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRIMARILY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
SPOTTY ELEVATED T POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT OTHERWISE MAIN PCPN BAND WILL CROSS DVL MID
MORNING...VALLEY AROUND 18Z AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EAST.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KBIS 220845
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PUSHING FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHWEST MANITOBA WHILE COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA STRETCHING JUST TO THE WEST OF A LINE
FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH AXIS
SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA INTO WESTERN WYOMING WITH RIDGE
OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS IS BRINGING ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
OUR AREA WITH A VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES SLIDING THROUGH AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH...WHICH HAS BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TODAY...TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION SLIDING
OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS...COMBINED WITH PROGRESSING COLD
FRONT...WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES COMING LATER TODAY MAINLY OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS MAIN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AS RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BRINGING QUIET CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS BROAD
RIDGE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CONTINUED WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST AS MODELS TRY TO BRING A BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION.
MOST MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH KISN AND KDIK AS OF 06Z WEDNESDAY.
REST OF THE TERMINALS HAVE SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN
AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS NOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL SHIFT
TOWARD KISN/KDIK BY 13Z WEDNESDAY...AND INTO KMOT BY 18Z. THERE
COULD BE INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AT THESE TERMINALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH A VCSH OVER THE
AERODROMES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KJMS
WHERE PREDOMINANT -SHRA IS FORECAST BETWEEN 15Z AND 23Z WEDNESDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS







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