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000
FXUS63 KBIS 160242
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
942 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AREA OF ELEVATED
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY
SURFACE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO LOWER AND
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE TO NEAR SATURATED
CONDITIONS.

WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN HAVE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
SATURATED BY THEN. NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

REGIONAL RADARS ARE DEPICTING A SWATH OF ELEVATED PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING FROM MINOT TO HARVEY...JAMESTOWN TO LISBON. NONE OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS REACHING THE GROUND AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE
TOO DRY (TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 10-20 DEGREES). THINK THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MOISTEN UP OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
DECREASING DUE TO BOTH WET BULBING EFFECTS AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...STILL THINK SATURATION IS A FEW HOURS OFF FROM
NOW. AS A RESULT...UPDATED THE FIRST PERIOD POP FORECAST TO COME
MORE IN LINE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA MOVING OVER
NORTH DAKOTA. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF I-94 AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FURTHERMORE...GIVEN THE EXPECTED WINDS AND CLOUD COVER...INCREASED
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A CATEGORY. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE
PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...A GENERAL RAIN/SNOW MIX...BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW
THIS EVENING. THERE ARE STILL SOME VARIATIONS AMONG MODEL QPF
FIELDS. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL THINKING IS THE INITIAL SNOWFALL
WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE. OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE...WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. TO THE WEST...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR
LESS. HEADLINES ARE NOT WARRANTED...HOWEVER SOME AREAS WILL HAVE A
SLICK MORNING COMMUTE WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 30S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE CLOSED 500MB LOW BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

LATEST 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT BOTH
ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED 500MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM FRIDAY 18 UTC THROUGH 00 UTC SUNDAY. LATEST 12 UTC OF THE
NH-GEM APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER. THE 12 UTC NH-GEM SHOWS A DEEPER
500 MB TROUGH AND HAS THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA 12
UTC SATURDAY...WHEREAS THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE CLOSED LOW
WELL NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WHILE I BELIEVE OVER TIME
THE NH-GEM WILL COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...THE NH-GEM FORECAST FOR NOW HAS MUCH HEAVIER PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM THIS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN AND SWITCH TO SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN BACK TO RAIN LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO THE GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE
BEEN COOLER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS. HOW THIS DIFFERENCE PLAYS OUT
OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA RECEIVES AS FORECAST LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT ARE HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL MAINLY
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA (KDIK) AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE
I-94 CORRIDOR AND INTO KBIS AND KJMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS/TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TM




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000
FXUS63 KFGF 160018
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
718 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

COORDINATED WITH WFO BIS AND IDEA WAS TO GREATLY BACK OFF ON POPS
THIS EVENING AS VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH RETURN FLOW OUT OF DRY HIGH
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL DRY UP MOST IF NOT ALL THE
SNOW FROM REACHING THE GROUND IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE BAND FROM
SOUTHEASTERN SASK INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND THRU 06Z. DEW PTS WILL RISE
BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS IN THE RRV THIS EVE BEFORE REACHING
20S OVERNIGHT. MAIN SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA WITH SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES INTO CNTRL-ERN SD BY 12Z WED. MOST OF THE FORCING FOR LIFT
IN THE MID LEVELS CONCENTRATES IN FAR NRN SD INTO CNTRL MN AT 12Z
SKIRTING OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA PER ADVISORY AREA. 12Z GEM
WAS FARTHEST SOUTH WITH MAIN SNOW MORE SO WATERTOWN-WILMAR-ST
CLOUD LINE VERSUS MORE ALONG A SISSETON-ELBOW LAKE-BRAINERD AXIS.
RESULT OF DRIER AIR WILL GO DRY IN ERN ND THRU 06Z AND THEN KEEP
HIGHER POPS AFTER 06Z IN SE ND INTO WCNTRL MN. 23Z RAP FOCUSES
MOST SNOWFALL JUST A BIT SOUTH OF WHERE IT DID EARLIER MORE SO
MILBANK SD INTO MORRIS MN TO LITTLE FALLS AGAIN SKIRTING FAR SOUTH
WITH ANY SIG SNOWFALL AND JUST VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS UP TOWARD FARGO
AND LITTLE TO NOTHING NORTH OF FARGO. TRIMMED POPS AND SNOW
AMOUNTS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY SNOW EVENT LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW BAND FOR WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM/GEM HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WITH MAIN SNOW BAND. ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH LESS QPF THROUGH THE EVENT.

FOR TONIGHT MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
SPREADING NW-SE ACROSS THE FA. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL
OF UPPER FORCING AS MAIN WAVE JUST CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TOWARDS
MORNING AS WAVE APPROACHES H7 LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED OVER E
CENTRAL SD WITH FAVORED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND NORTH OF LOW. SO EXPECT NW-SE ORIENTED SNOW BAND TO
BECOME MORE E-W FROM EASTERN SD-WEST CENTRAL MN WITH COMMON ND
BORDER AREA ON NORTHERN FRINGE. OVERALL STILL LOOKING AT GENERAL
1-3 INCHES OVERNIGHT. MIXING AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE
DROP OVERNIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/ Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHIFTS
DUE EAST FROM E SD INTO S MN. THIS WILL PUT FAR SE FA ON NORTHERN
AND WESTERN FRINGE OF HEAVIER SNOW BAND. FOR THIS HAVE ISSUED
WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW. SNOW RATIOS AND IF WE
CAN GET TO OR ABOVE MELTING WILL HAVE A BEARING ON SNOW AMOUNTS.
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL EAST MID AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL DIMINISH EARLY EVENING. NOT MUCH COLDER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND SYSTEM AND DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE TEMPERATURES BLO AVERAGE ESPECIALLY WITH NEW SNOW FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN THURSDAY AND WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER COLUMN
AND MID APRIL SOLAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER IN SPITE OF FRESH
SNOW.

REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS QUIET WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARM UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR EASTER WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. INCREASING
THICKNESSES AS 500MB FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND 850MB WAA BEGINS
SATURDAY IN WHICH NWP INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF WAA PCPN
FROM WEST TO EAST TO CROSS THE AREA. ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY BEFORE MORE RIDGING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING 60S FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

WINDS WILL BE MAIN HAZARD IN THE AREA NEXT 24 HOURS AS SOUTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS INCREASE AS LOW DEVELOPS IN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND
MOVES INTO MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW AND HIGH IN MANITOBA-NW ONTARIO TO HAVE A STRONG EAST TO
NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SUSTAINED 15
TO 22 KTS AND GUSTS OVER 30 KTS IN PLACES. PER MOISTURE CROSS
SECTIONS SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY VFR CIGS THRU WED IN DVL-GFK-TVF-BJI
AREAS WITH LIGHT SNOW MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN FARGO LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MIDDAY. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS PSBL DVL-GFK-TVF-BJI AS
WELL BUT FEEL IT SHOULD STAY MORE ON THE LOW END VFR RANGE. DID
HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO BJI 15Z WED BUT THAT IS MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN AS MORE DATA COMES IN.

&&

HYDRO...THE COLD NIGHTS AND COOL DAYTIME HIGHS ARE PUTTING A
DAMPER ON ANY ADDITIONAL RUNOFF. WAS ABLE TO ISSUE LAST FORECASTS
FOR SABIN DILWORTH AND GRAFTON. THE REMAINING POINTS IN HYDROLOGIC
STATEMENTS OR FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE ALL AT OR NORTH OF GRAND FORKS.
ONLY SITES STILL RISING ARE DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED RIVER.
STILL ANTICIPATE THE COOLER WEATHER LASTING INTO THURSDAY WITH
SOME MODERATION COMING BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO MAINLY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MNZ030>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...VG






000
FXUS63 KBIS 152356
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
656 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

REGIONAL RADARS ARE DEPICTING A SWATH OF ELEVATED PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING FROM MINOT TO HARVEY...JAMESTOWN TO LISBON. NONE OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS REACHING THE GROUND AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE
TOO DRY (TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 10-20 DEGREES). THINK THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MOISTEN UP OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
DECREASING DUE TO BOTH WET BULBING EFFECTS AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...STILL THINK SATURATION IS A FEW HOURS OFF FROM
NOW. AS A RESULT...UPDATED THE FIRST PERIOD POP FORECAST TO COME
MORE IN LINE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA MOVING OVER
NORTH DAKOTA. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF I-94 AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FURTHERMORE...GIVEN THE EXPECTED WINDS AND CLOUD COVER...INCREASED
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A CATEGORY. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE
PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...A GENERAL RAIN/SNOW MIX...BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW
THIS EVENING. THERE ARE STILL SOME VARIATIONS AMONG MODEL QPF
FIELDS. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL THINKING IS THE INITIAL SNOWFALL
WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE. OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE...WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. TO THE WEST...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR
LESS. HEADLINES ARE NOT WARRANTED...HOWEVER SOME AREAS WILL HAVE A
SLICK MORNING COMMUTE WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 30S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE CLOSED 500MB LOW BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

LATEST 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT BOTH
ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED 500MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM FRIDAY 18 UTC THROUGH 00 UTC SUNDAY. LATEST 12 UTC OF THE
NH-GEM APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER. THE 12 UTC NH-GEM SHOWS A DEEPER
500 MB TROUGH AND HAS THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA 12
UTC SATURDAY...WHEREAS THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE CLOSED LOW
WELL NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WHILE I BELIEVE OVER TIME
THE NH-GEM WILL COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...THE NH-GEM FORECAST FOR NOW HAS MUCH HEAVIER PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM THIS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN AND SWITCH TO SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN BACK TO RAIN LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO THE GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE
BEEN COOLER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS. HOW THIS DIFFERENCE PLAYS OUT
OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA RECEIVES AS FORECAST LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT ARE HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL MAINLY
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA (KDIK) AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE
I-94 CORRIDOR AND INTO KBIS AND KJMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS/TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 152031
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
331 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE
PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...A GENERAL RAIN/SNOW MIX...BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW
THIS EVENING. THERE ARE STILL SOME VARIATIONS AMONG MODEL QPF
FIELDS. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL THINKING IS THE INITIAL SNOWFALL
WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE. OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE...WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. TO THE WEST...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR
LESS. HEADLINES ARE NOT WARRANTED...HOWEVER SOME AREAS WILL HAVE A
SLICK MORNING COMMUTE WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 30S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE CLOSED 500MB LOW BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

LATEST 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT BOTH
ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED 500MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM FRIDAY 18 UTC THROUGH 00 UTC SUNDAY. LATEST 12 UTC OF THE
NH-GEM APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER. THE 12 UTC NH-GEM SHOWS A DEEPER
500 MB TROUGH AND HAS THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA 12
UTC SATURDAY...WHEREAS THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE CLOSED LOW
WELL NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WHILE I BELIEVE OVER TIME
THE NH-GEM WILL COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...THE NH-GEM FORECAST FOR NOW HAS MUCH HEAVIER PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM THIS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN AND SWITCH TO SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN BACK TO RAIN LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO THE GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE
BEEN COOLER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS. HOW THIS DIFFERENCE PLAYS OUT
OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA RECEIVES AS FORECAST LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT ARE HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING BY THIS EVENING
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KBIS...WHERE THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 06Z. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS FORECAST AT KDIK
BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW...OTHERWISE SNOW EXPECTED TO BE THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE. IFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON AT
KISN/KMOT/KDIK AROUND 10Z-11Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM SE
TO E/NE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...MM








000
FXUS63 KFGF 152015
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY SNOW EVENT LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW BAND FOR WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM/GEM HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WITH MAIN SNOW BAND. ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH LESS QPF THROUGH THE EVENT.

FOR TONIGHT MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
SPREADING NW-SE ACROSS THE FA. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL
OF UPPER FORCING AS MAIN WAVE JUST CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TOWARDS
MORNING AS WAVE APPROACHES H7 LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED OVER E
CENTRAL SD WITH FAVORED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND NORTH OF LOW. SO EXPECT NW-SE ORIENTED SNOW BAND TO
BECOME MORE E-W FROM EASTERN SD-WEST CENTRAL MN WITH COMMON ND
BORDER AREA ON NORTHERN FRINGE. OVERALL STILL LOOKING AT GENERAL
1-3 INCHES OVERNIGHT. MIXING AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE
DROP OVERNIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/ Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHIFTS
DUE EAST FROM E SD INTO S MN. THIS WILL PUT FAR SE FA ON NORTHERN
AND WESTERN FRINGE OF HEAVIER SNOW BAND. FOR THIS HAVE ISSUED
WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW. SNOW RATIOS AND IF WE
CAN GET TO OR ABOVE MELTING WILL HAVE A BEARING ON SNOW AMOUNTS.
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL EAST MID AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL DIMINISH EARLY EVENING. NOT MUCH COLDER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND SYSTEM AND DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE TEMPERATURES BLO AVERAGE ESPECIALLY WITH NEW SNOW FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN THURSDAY AND WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER COLUMN
AND MID APRIL SOLAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER IN SPITE OF FRESH
SNOW.

REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS QUIET WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARM UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR EASTER WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. INCREASING
THICKNESSES AS 500MB FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND 850MB WAA BEGINS
SATURDAY IN WHICH NWP INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF WAA PCPN
FROM WEST TO EAST TO CROSS THE AREA. ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY BEFORE MORE RIDGING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING 60S FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR WITH SE WINDS TODAY SOME GUSTS IN E ND AND RRV THIS AFTN. WILL
SEE LOWERING CIGS AND INCREASING WINDS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. -SN WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT IN THE DVL AREA AND MOVE INTO THE VALLEY WITH LOWER CIGS AND
LONGER DURATION OF -SN IMPACTING FAR MORE THAN OTHER TAF SITES.
GUSTS ABOVE 30KTS AT FAR INTO TOMORROW WITH 20 TO 30 KTS AT OTHER
SITES.
&&

.HYDRO...THE COLD NIGHTS AND COOL DAYTIME HIGHS ARE PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF. WAS ABLE TO ISSUE LAST FORECASTS FOR SABIN
DILWORTH AND GRAFTON. THE REMAINING POINTS IN HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS
OR FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE ALL AT OR NORTH OF GRAND FORKS. ONLY SITES
STILL RISING ARE DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED RIVER. STILL
ANTICIPATE THE COOLER WEATHER LASTING INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME
MODERATION COMING BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO MAINLY AFFECT
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MNZ030>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...JK
HYDRO...VG






000
FXUS63 KBIS 151814
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
114 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MIDDAY UPDATE MAINLY FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE TRENDS
THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...A GENERAL RAIN/SNOW MIX...BEFORE
TURNING TO ALL SNOW THIS EVENING. THERE ARE STILL SOME WIDE
VARIATIONS AMONG MODEL QPF FIELDS...BUT THE CURRENT THINKING STILL
FAVORS THE EASTERN COUNTIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW...AMOUNTS EXPECTED DO NOT WARRANT ANY
HEADLINES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MORNING UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER/TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND AFTERNOON POPS. HAVE EXPANDED THE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FOR LATE AFTERNOON BASED ON CONSENSUS OF LATEST MODEL
RUNS...INCLUDING RAP/HRRR. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA PRIOR TO 00Z...BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED OTHER THAN
POPULATING GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE WEST PER IR IMAGERY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS WYOMING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE
ROCKIES...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES
AREA...KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA. MIDDLE AND
HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

TODAY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT TOWARDS NEBRASKA...THEN HEADS
EAST ACROSS IOWA TO WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY. IN
RESPONSE...THE LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND SHOULD
BE AT THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING...SHOULD BE
CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN SD/NE BORDER BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND OVER WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES...AND HINTING AT A RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.

TONIGHT THE RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW. GOOD ISENTROPIC
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW...AND KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES THERE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHWEST MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 THIS
EVENING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES ON ITS SOUTHEAST TRACK...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXPAND FARTHER ACROSS ALL OF THE STATE.

BY WEDNESDAY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE STATE...AND WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SNOW OVER THE STATE...ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK
AND EAST...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW WEST OF THIS LINE.

ALONG WITH THE SNOW...WINDS WILL BE BRISK THROUGHOUT THIS SHORT TERM
PERIOD. LOOK FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY AHEAD OF THE
LOW. TONIGHT WINDS BECOME EASTERLY...THEN NORTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 25
MPH AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. ON WEDNESDAY NORTHEAST
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AT 15 TO 25 MPH AS THE LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD
TOWARDS WISCONSIN.

AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE
50S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT REMAIN IN THE 30S NORTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S...AND CONTINUED COLD WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MODELS ARE IN LIMITED AGREEMENT...BUT SEEM TO CAPTURE
THE MAJOR UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH. CHANCE OF PRECIP OCCURS THURSDAY WITH 100KT 250MB
JET STREAK DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN ND WHICH ALL OF THE MODELS ARE
PICKING UP. PROGRESSIVE RIDGE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY WHILE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HOLD OFF ON PRECIP UNTIL AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN GFS...SHOWING 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE AT 06Z SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES COLDER.
PATTERN TURNS DRY AND WARMER FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WITH
MODELS/ENSEMBLES BUILDING BROAD RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN CONUS EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND SLOWLY BRINGING IT TO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 50S SATURDAY BUT WILL REACH THE 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND APPROACH 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING BY THIS EVENING
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KBIS...WHERE THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 06Z. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS FORECAST AT KDIK
BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW...OTHERWISE SNOW EXPECTED TO BE THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE. IFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON AT
KISN/KMOT/KDIK AROUND 10Z-11Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM SE
TO E/NE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JNS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 151737
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1237 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

TRIMMED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA AS LACK OF
MIXING AND WARM ADVECTION WILL OFFSET SOLAR AND HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN. ALSO TRIMMED BACK ON POPS ACROSS THE DVL BASIN UNTIL THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY`S UPDATES WILL BE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND WHEN -SN WILL MOVE INTO THE FA LATER TODAY. AFTER
RECORD BREAKING LOWS READINGS ARE SLOWLY RISING. WITH INCREASED
MIXING AND WARM ADVECTION STILL THINK CURRENT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE REACHABLE SO NO CHANGES AT THIS POINT. SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE
MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING ANY LIGHT PCPN INTO THE FA. WILL
WAIT TIL SOME OF THE MAIN MODELS COME IN BUT MAY TRIM BACK PCPN
MOVING INTO THE FA UNTIL THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

OBSERVING RECORD COLD THIS MORNING. SO FAR...GRAND FORKS (NWS
OFFICE) HAS DROPPED TO 11 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 12
DEGREES SET IN 2000 AND FARGO HAS DROPPED TO 13 DEGREES...
BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 15 DEGREES SET IN 1935. MORNING LOWS
ARE EVEN COLDER ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WITH 7 AM READINGS OF 1 ABOVE
AT FLAG ISLAND AND 2 ABOVE AT BEMIDJI. COULD SQUEAK OUT ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE SUNSHINE BEGINS TO
IMPACT TEMPERATURES. ADJUSTED HOURLY CURVE TO BETTER MATCH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE PRECIP TIMING...LOCATION AND AMOUNTS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CIRRUS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY CRASHING ONTO THE WASHINGTON
COASTLINE. LIGHT SFC WIND WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 925 HPA WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS WEST OF THE VALLEY...SO SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS
TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. BESIDES INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY...PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF EVERYWHERE EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR
NORTHWEST THROUGH 00 UTC. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...700 HPA LOW ASSOCIATED WITH HUDSON BAY TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN TO NORTHEAST SD BY 12 UTC
WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORT-WAVE AND MOVES INTO EAST CENTRAL MN BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG 850 TO 700 HPA FRONTOGENESIS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE MID-LEVEL LOW...BUT DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER
WEAK. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 290 K SURFACE WILL RESULT IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INCREASES WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVIER SNOW MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST
WI...BUT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIP THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM PARK RAPIDS TO FERGUS FALLS LOOK TO PICK UP 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
LATE SEASON SNOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. EAST-NORTHEAST SFC WIND
WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO
WI...SO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOOKS
LIKE AN ADVISORY TYPE EVENT...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DECIDE
WHEN AND WHERE ONCE NEIGHBORING OFFICES DEAL WITH THEIR CURRENT
WINTER STORM WATCH. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT SFC TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. PRECIP WILL
FALL AS SNOW GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...BUT WARMER NEAR SFC
LAYER MAY INITIALLY LIMIT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ON
ROADWAYS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
GUSTING AT TIMES TO 25 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

LAST OF THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND WEAKER WINDS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE STORY
FOR THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS...MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...AND
LIGHTER NORTHEAST WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WAY BELOW MID-
APRIL NORMALS...BUT MAY SEE A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OFF INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND THE CENTER OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND HAS THE
SYSTEM AS A STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH. ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
HAVE A SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP WITH IT. WILL KEEP
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO SUNDAY AS SFC WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
MODEL CONSENSUS GOES DOWNHILL FOR MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT THROUGH WHILE THE GFS HAS RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS WARMING THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD FOR NOW AND STICK WITH THE BLENDED SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR WITH SE WINDS TODAY SOME GUSTS IN E ND AND RRV THIS AFTN. WILL
SEE LOWERING CIGS AND INCREASING WINDS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. -SN WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT IN THE DVL AREA AND MOVE INTO THE VALLEY WITH LOWER CIGS AND
LONGER DURATION OF -SN IMPACTING FAR MORE THAN OTHER TAF SITES.
GUSTS ABOVE 30KTS AT FAR INTO TOMORROW WITH 20 TO 30 KTS AT OTHER
SITES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE COLD NIGHTS AND COOL DAYTIME HIGHS ARE PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF. WAS ABLE TO ISSUE LAST FORECASTS FOR SABIN
DILWORTH AND GRAFTON. THE REMAINING POINTS IN HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS
OR FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE ALL AT OR NORTH OF GRAND FORKS. ONLY SITES
STILL RISING ARE DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED RIVER. STILL
ANTICIPATE THE COOLER WEATHER LASTING INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME
MODERATION COMING BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO MAINLY AFFECT
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/JR
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...GODON







000
FXUS63 KBIS 151435
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
935 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MORNING UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER/TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND AFTERNOON POPS. HAVE EXPANDED THE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FOR LATE AFTERNOON BASED ON CONSENSUS OF LATEST MODEL
RUNS...INCLUDING RAP/HRRR. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA PRIOR TO 00Z...BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED OTHER THAN
POPULATING GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE WEST PER IR IMAGERY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS WYOMING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE
ROCKIES...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES
AREA...KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA. MIDDLE AND
HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

TODAY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT TOWARDS NEBRASKA...THEN HEADS
EAST ACROSS IOWA TO WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY. IN
RESPONSE...THE LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND SHOULD
BE AT THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING...SHOULD BE
CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN SD/NE BORDER BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND OVER WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES...AND HINTING AT A RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.

TONIGHT THE RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW. GOOD ISENTROPIC
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW...AND KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES THERE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHWEST MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 THIS
EVENING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES ON ITS SOUTHEAST TRACK...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXPAND FARTHER ACROSS ALL OF THE STATE.

BY WEDNESDAY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE STATE...AND WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SNOW OVER THE STATE...ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK
AND EAST...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW WEST OF THIS LINE.

ALONG WITH THE SNOW...WINDS WILL BE BRISK THROUGHOUT THIS SHORT TERM
PERIOD. LOOK FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY AHEAD OF THE
LOW. TONIGHT WINDS BECOME EASTERLY...THEN NORTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 25
MPH AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. ON WEDNESDAY NORTHEAST
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AT 15 TO 25 MPH AS THE LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD
TOWARDS WISCONSIN.

AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE
50S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT REMAIN IN THE 30S NORTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S...AND CONTINUED COLD WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MODELS ARE IN LIMITED AGREEMENT...BUT SEEM TO CAPTURE
THE MAJOR UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH. CHANCE OF PRECIP OCCURS THURSDAY WITH 100KT 250MB
JET STREAK DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN ND WHICH ALL OF THE MODELS ARE
PICKING UP. PROGRESSIVE RIDGE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY WHILE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HOLD OFF ON PRECIP UNTIL AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN GFS...SHOWING 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE AT 06Z SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES COLDER.
PATTERN TURNS DRY AND WARMER FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WITH
MODELS/ENSEMBLES BUILDING BROAD RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN CONUS EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND SLOWLY BRINGING IT TO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 50S SATURDAY BUT WILL REACH THE 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND APPROACH 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT THE STATE. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (KMOT) TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...VFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE AT OR
APPROACH MVFR CIGS AFT 02Z WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. SOUTHEAST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST AFT 00Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 151428
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
928 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY`S UPDATES WILL BE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND WHEN -SN WILL MOVE INTO THE FA LATER TODAY. AFTER
RECORD BREAKING LOWS READINGS ARE SLOWLY RISING. WITH INCREASED
MIXING AND WARM ADVECTION STILL THINK CURRENT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE REACHABLE SO NO CHANGES AT THIS POINT. SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE
MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING ANY LIGHT PCPN INTO THE FA. WILL
WAIT TIL SOME OF THE MAIN MODELS COME IN BUT MAY TRIM BACK PCPN
MOVING INTO THE FA UNTIL THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

OBSERVING RECORD COLD THIS MORNING. SO FAR...GRAND FORKS (NWS
OFFICE) HAS DROPPED TO 11 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 12
DEGREES SET IN 2000 AND FARGO HAS DROPPED TO 13 DEGREES...
BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 15 DEGREES SET IN 1935. MORNING LOWS
ARE EVEN COLDER ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WITH 7 AM READINGS OF 1 ABOVE
AT FLAG ISLAND AND 2 ABOVE AT BEMIDJI. COULD SQUEAK OUT ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE SUNSHINE BEGINS TO
IMPACT TEMPERATURES. ADJUSTED HOURLY CURVE TO BETTER MATCH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE PRECIP TIMING...LOCATION AND AMOUNTS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CIRRUS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY CRASHING ONTO THE WASHINGTON
COASTLINE. LIGHT SFC WIND WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 925 HPA WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS WEST OF THE VALLEY...SO SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS
TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. BESIDES INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY...PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF EVERYWHERE EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR
NORTHWEST THROUGH 00 UTC. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...700 HPA LOW ASSOCIATED WITH HUDSON BAY TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN TO NORTHEAST SD BY 12 UTC
WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORT-WAVE AND MOVES INTO EAST CENTRAL MN BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG 850 TO 700 HPA FRONTOGENESIS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE MID-LEVEL LOW...BUT DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER
WEAK. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 290 K SURFACE WILL RESULT IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INCREASES WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVIER SNOW MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST
WI...BUT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIP THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM PARK RAPIDS TO FERGUS FALLS LOOK TO PICK UP 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
LATE SEASON SNOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. EAST-NORTHEAST SFC WIND
WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO
WI...SO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOOKS
LIKE AN ADVISORY TYPE EVENT...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DECIDE
WHEN AND WHERE ONCE NEIGHBORING OFFICES DEAL WITH THEIR CURRENT
WINTER STORM WATCH. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT SFC TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. PRECIP WILL
FALL AS SNOW GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...BUT WARMER NEAR SFC
LAYER MAY INITIALLY LIMIT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ON
ROADWAYS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
GUSTING AT TIMES TO 25 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

LAST OF THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND WEAKER WINDS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE STORY
FOR THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS...MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...AND
LIGHTER NORTHEAST WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WAY BELOW MID-
APRIL NORMALS...BUT MAY SEE A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OFF INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND THE CENTER OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND HAS THE
SYSTEM AS A STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH. ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
HAVE A SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP WITH IT. WILL KEEP
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO SUNDAY AS SFC WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
MODEL CONSENSUS GOES DOWNHILL FOR MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT THROUGH WHILE THE GFS HAS RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS WARMING THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD FOR NOW AND STICK WITH THE BLENDED SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT ONLY
INTRODUCED IT AT KDVL AND KFAR AS ITS EASTWARD EXTENT IS MORE
UNCERTAIN. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SNOW...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL
INCREASE LATER TODAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 25
KTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOR THE MINNESOTA TRIBS...THE HALLOCK GAGE SEEMS TO BE WORKING
AGAIN. THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK IS CRESTING IN MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE...WHILE THE SNAKE RIVER AT ALVARADO REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD
STAGE.

ON THE MAINSTEM RED...OSLO AND GRAND FORKS CONTINUE TO FALL. STAGES
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE AT DRAYTON AND PEMBINA. A CREST IS
EXPECTED AT DRAYTON IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE MID/LATE WEEK...AND AT
PEMBINA OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY APPROACHING MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/JR
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 151212 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
712 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

OBSERVING RECORD COLD THIS MORNING. SO FAR...GRAND FORKS (NWS
OFFICE) HAS DROPPED TO 11 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 12
DEGREES SET IN 2000 AND FARGO HAS DROPPED TO 13 DEGREES...
BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 15 DEGREES SET IN 1935. MORNING LOWS
ARE EVEN COLDER ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WITH 7 AM READINGS OF 1 ABOVE
AT FLAG ISLAND AND 2 ABOVE AT BEMIDJI. COULD SQUEAK OUT ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE SUNSHINE BEGINS TO
IMPACT TEMPERATURES. ADJUSTED HOURLY CURVE TO BETTER MATCH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE PRECIP TIMING...LOCATION AND AMOUNTS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CIRRUS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY CRASHING ONTO THE WASHINGTON
COASTLINE. LIGHT SFC WIND WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 925 HPA WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS WEST OF THE VALLEY...SO SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS
TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. BESIDES INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY...PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF EVERYWHERE EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR
NORTHWEST THROUGH 00 UTC. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...700 HPA LOW ASSOCIATED WITH HUDSON BAY TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN TO NORTHEAST SD BY 12 UTC
WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORT-WAVE AND MOVES INTO EAST CENTRAL MN BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG 850 TO 700 HPA FRONTOGENESIS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE MID-LEVEL LOW...BUT DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER
WEAK. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 290 K SURFACE WILL RESULT IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INCREASES WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVIER SNOW MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST
WI...BUT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIP THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM PARK RAPIDS TO FERGUS FALLS LOOK TO PICK UP 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
LATE SEASON SNOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. EAST-NORTHEAST SFC WIND
WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO
WI...SO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOOKS
LIKE AN ADVISORY TYPE EVENT...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DECIDE
WHEN AND WHERE ONCE NEIGHBORING OFFICES DEAL WITH THEIR CURRENT
WINTER STORM WATCH. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT SFC TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. PRECIP WILL
FALL AS SNOW GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...BUT WARMER NEAR SFC
LAYER MAY INITIALLY LIMIT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ON
ROADWAYS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
GUSTING AT TIMES TO 25 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

LAST OF THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND WEAKER WINDS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE STORY
FOR THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS...MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...AND
LIGHTER NORTHEAST WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WAY BELOW MID-
APRIL NORMALS...BUT MAY SEE A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OFF INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND THE CENTER OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND HAS THE
SYSTEM AS A STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH. ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
HAVE A SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP WITH IT. WILL KEEP
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO SUNDAY AS SFC WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
MODEL CONSENSUS GOES DOWNHILL FOR MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT THROUGH WHILE THE GFS HAS RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS WARMING THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD FOR NOW AND STICK WITH THE BLENDED SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT ONLY
INTRODUCED IT AT KDVL AND KFAR AS ITS EASTWARD EXTENT IS MORE
UNCERTAIN. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SNOW...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL
INCREASE LATER TODAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 25
KTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOR THE MINNESOTA TRIBS...THE HALLOCK GAGE SEEMS TO BE WORKING
AGAIN. THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK IS CRESTING IN MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE...WHILE THE SNAKE RIVER AT ALVARADO REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD
STAGE.

ON THE MAINSTEM RED...OSLO AND GRAND FORKS CONTINUE TO FALL. STAGES
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE AT DRAYTON AND PEMBINA. A CREST IS
EXPECTED AT DRAYTON IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE MID/LATE WEEK...AND AT
PEMBINA OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY APPROACHING MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/JR
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY...JR







000
FXUS63 KBIS 151150
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
650 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED OTHER THAN
POPULATING GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE WEST PER IR IMAGERY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS WYOMING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE
ROCKIES...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES
AREA...KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA. MIDDLE AND
HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

TODAY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT TOWARDS NEBRASKA...THEN HEADS
EAST ACROSS IOWA TO WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY. IN
RESPONSE...THE LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND SHOULD
BE AT THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING...SHOULD BE
CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN SD/NE BORDER BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND OVER WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES...AND HINTING AT A RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.

TONIGHT THE RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW. GOOD ISENTROPIC
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW...AND KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES THERE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHWEST MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 THIS
EVENING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES ON ITS SOUTHEAST TRACK...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXPAND FARTHER ACROSS ALL OF THE STATE.

BY WEDNESDAY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE STATE...AND WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SNOW OVER THE STATE...ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK
AND EAST...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW WEST OF THIS LINE.

ALONG WITH THE SNOW...WINDS WILL BE BRISK THROUGHOUT THIS SHORT TERM
PERIOD. LOOK FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY AHEAD OF THE
LOW. TONIGHT WINDS BECOME EASTERLY...THEN NORTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 25
MPH AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. ON WEDNESDAY NORTHEAST
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AT 15 TO 25 MPH AS THE LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD
TOWARDS WISCONSIN.

AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE
50S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT REMAIN IN THE 30S NORTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S...AND CONTINUED COLD WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MODELS ARE IN LIMITED AGREEMENT...BUT SEEM TO CAPTURE
THE MAJOR UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH. CHANCE OF PRECIP OCCURS THURSDAY WITH 100KT 250MB
JET STREAK DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN ND WHICH ALL OF THE MODELS ARE
PICKING UP. PROGRESSIVE RIDGE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY WHILE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HOLD OFF ON PRECIP UNTIL AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN GFS...SHOWING 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE AT 06Z SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES COLDER.
PATTERN TURNS DRY AND WARMER FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WITH
MODELS/ENSEMBLES BUILDING BROAD RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN CONUS EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND SLOWLY BRINGING IT TO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 50S SATURDAY BUT WILL REACH THE 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND APPROACH 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT THE STATE. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (KMOT) TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...VFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE AT OR
APPROACH MVFR CIGS AFT 02Z WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. SOUTHEAST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST AFT 00Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 150855
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
355 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE PRECIP TIMING...LOCATION AND AMOUNTS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CIRRUS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY CRASHING ONTO THE WASHINGTON
COASTLINE. LIGHT SFC WIND WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 925 HPA WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS WEST OF THE VALLEY...SO SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS
TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. BESIDES INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY...PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF EVERYWHERE EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR
NORTHWEST THROUGH 00 UTC. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...700 HPA LOW ASSOCIATED WITH HUDSON BAY TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN TO NORTHEAST SD BY 12 UTC
WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORT-WAVE AND MOVES INTO EAST CENTRAL MN BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG 850 TO 700 HPA FRONTOGENESIS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE MID-LEVEL LOW...BUT DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER
WEAK. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 290 K SURFACE WILL RESULT IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INCREASES WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVIER SNOW MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST
WI...BUT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIP THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM PARK RAPIDS TO FERGUS FALLS LOOK TO PICK UP 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
LATE SEASON SNOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. EAST-NORTHEAST SFC WIND
WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO
WI...SO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOOKS
LIKE AN ADVISORY TYPE EVENT...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DECIDE
WHEN AND WHERE ONCE NEIGHBORING OFFICES DEAL WITH THEIR CURRENT
WINTER STORM WATCH. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT SFC TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. PRECIP WILL
FALL AS SNOW GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...BUT WARMER NEAR SFC
LAYER MAY INITIALLY LIMIT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ON
ROADWAYS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
GUSTING AT TIMES TO 25 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

LAST OF THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND WEAKER WINDS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE STORY
FOR THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS...MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...AND
LIGHTER NORTHEAST WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WAY BELOW MID-
APRIL NORMALS...BUT MAY SEE A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OFF INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND THE CENTER OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND HAS THE
SYSTEM AS A STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH. ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
HAVE A SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP WITH IT. WILL KEEP
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO SUNDAY AS SFC WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
MODEL CONSENSUS GOES DOWNHILL FOR MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT THROUGH WHILE THE GFS HAS RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS WARMING THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD FOR NOW AND STICK WITH THE BLENDED SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

WINDS TO DIMINISH AND GO LIGHT NORTHWEST AND THEN SLOWLY TURN
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PICK UP WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS OR SO DVL BASIN AND THEN RRV TUESDAY
MIDDAY-AFTN. CIRRUS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TUES AFTN-
EVE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MOVE INTO DVL BASIN
BY 06Z WED BUT DUE TO UNCERTAIN TIMING LEFT PRECIP OUT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KBIS 150853
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
353 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS WYOMING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE
ROCKIES...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES
AREA...KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA. MIDDLE AND
HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

TODAY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT TOWARDS NEBRASKA...THEN HEADS
EAST ACROSS IOWA TO WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY. IN
RESPONSE...THE LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND SHOULD
BE AT THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING...SHOULD BE
CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN SD/NE BORDER BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND OVER WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES...AND HINTING AT A RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.

TONIGHT THE RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW. GOOD ISENTROPIC
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW...AND KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES THERE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHWEST MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 THIS
EVENING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES ON ITS SOUTHEAST TRACK...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXPAND FARTHER ACROSS ALL OF THE STATE.

BY WEDNESDAY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE STATE...AND WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SNOW OVER THE STATE...ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK
AND EAST...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW WEST OF THIS LINE.

ALONG WITH THE SNOW...WINDS WILL BE BRISK THROUGHOUT THIS SHORT TERM
PERIOD. LOOK FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY AHEAD OF THE
LOW. TONIGHT WINDS BECOME EASTERLY...THEN NORTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 25
MPH AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. ON WEDNESDAY NORTHEAST
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AT 15 TO 25 MPH AS THE LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD
TOWARDS WISCONSIN.

AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE
50S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT REMAIN IN THE 30S NORTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S...AND CONTINUED COLD WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MODELS ARE IN LIMITED AGREEMENT...BUT SEEM TO CAPTURE
THE MAJOR UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH. CHANCE OF PRECIP OCCURS THURSDAY WITH 100KT 250MB
JET STREAK DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN ND WHICH ALL OF THE MODELS ARE
PICKING UP. PROGRESSIVE RIDGE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY WHILE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HOLD OFF ON PRECIP UNTIL AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN GFS...SHOWING 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE AT 06Z SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES COLDER.
PATTERN TURNS DRY AND WARMER FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WITH
MODELS/ENSEMBLES BUILDING BROAD RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN CONUS EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND SLOWLY BRINGING IT TO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 50S SATURDAY BUT WILL REACH THE 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND APPROACH 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT THE STATE. LIGHT
SNOW AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (KMOT) TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE AT OR
APPROACH MVFR CIGS AFT 02Z. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE
AFTERNOON OR AFTER 00Z AT FIRST IN THE KMOT VICINITY - THEN DEVELOP
QUICKLY OVER ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...JV









000
FXUS63 KBIS 150539
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1239 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

HIGH CLOUDS ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING EAST...WITH A QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING BEFORE SUNRISE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO 12 TO 18 MPH...THEN INCREASING QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE TO 20 TO 30 MPH.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THROUGH SUNRISE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

ISSUED A RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY
AS THE CREEK LEVEL IS NOW ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE (10 FEET) DUE TO
SNOWMELT. IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR FLOOD STAGE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHEN IT WILL BEGIN A SLOW FALL.

OTHERWISE...ONLY EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST STATEWIDE
OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REMOVE LATE AFTERNOON SNOW/RAIN SHOWER WORDING
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY AIRMASS AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE NICELY OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
TEMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...LOWERED FORECAST LOWS A FEW DEGREES EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
TONIGHT...AND MAINTAINED LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S WEST.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
BECOME PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH RELATIVELY WARM GROUND AND ROAD TEMPS...NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT MOTORISTS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR QUICK REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS EARLY FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST...WHICH WAY
BE ENOUGH TO OBSCURE THE LUNAR ECLIPSE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND TEMPS
THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH A LARGE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST FROM THE
LOWER 30S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WHERE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT HELPING TO STEER AN EMBEDDED S/WV INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOST PRECIPITATION GENERATED
FROM THE MID LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...STRONG
THERMAL UPGLIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
SECTOR OF THE LOW WILL BRING A HEALTHY SWATH OF MOISTURE ACROSS MY
NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES...FROM FAR SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINOT AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS THIS SAME AREA BY ANOTHER
AREA OF PVA MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS FORCING DECREASES.

MODELS STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON QPF. WHILE THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE ON
THE DRY SIDE WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF WATER OVER MY FAR
NORTHEAST (ROLETTE COUNTY) TAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE 12Z
GEM (WHICH NAILED SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAYS SNOWFALL) IS WETTER WITH A
SWATH OF THREE TENTHS NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST. BASED ON ITS SUPERIOR
PERFORMANCE LAST NIGHT/TODAY...LEANED IN THE GEM`S DIRECTION. CAA
NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING WILL CHANGES MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO SNOW. APPLYING THE 12Z/GFS/NAM RATIOS...I
CALCULATE 1-3 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH
HALF AN INCH AT KISN AND NEAR ONE INCH AT BISMARCK.

MODEL SPREAD INCREASES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...REGARDING THE TRACK OF A CLOSED LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER RATHER POTENT S/WV CROSSING
THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THE FIRST HALF OF THIS COMING EASTER
WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO WATCH BOTH THESE WAVES AS EACH HAS SOME
POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT THE STATE. LIGHT
SNOW AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (KMOT) TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE AT OR
APPROACH MVFR CIGS AFT 02Z. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE
AFTERNOON OR AFTER 00Z AT FIRST IN THE KMOT VICINITY - THEN DEVELOP
QUICKLY OVER ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 150450
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1150 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO DVL BASIN AT 05Z WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS EAST OF HIGH. SKIES CLEAR. UPSTREAM THIN CIRRUS WILL BEING
TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NW FCST AREA OVERNIGHT SPREADING SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS LOOK PRETTY GOOD WITH 5-10 NORTHEAST FCST
AREA TO TEENS ELSEWHERE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND MIDWEEK SNOW CHANCES.
MODELS COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT BUT STILL A SPREAD ON QPF AND
AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOW POTENTIAL WHICH MAY AFFECT THE FAR SE FA.
WILL CURRENTLY FOLLOW PREFERRED BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF.

CURRENT POPCORN SHSN ACROSS SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THIS POINT LEFT SHSN OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE EVENING BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE
CU FIELD SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE LEAVING FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. WITH COLD COLUMN IN PLACE WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET BUT CONTINUED COLD ALTHOUGH WITH
INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND SOME WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES MAY BE
A BIT WARMER.

LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE SHOULD GET INTO NW FA
SPREADING SE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TO NEAR FSD BY MORNING. DID INCREASE POPS WITH BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

AS SURFACE LOW PROPAGATES EAST ON WEDNESDAY MAIN CONCERN IS WHERE
DEFORMATION SNOW BAND SETS UP. ECMWF OVERALL WEAKEST ON QPF. GFS
SHOWS MAIN SNOW BAND JUST TO THE SE OF THE FA WITH GEM/NAM FARTHER
NORTH IMPACTING SE TIER OF COUNTIES. DID INCREASE POPS/SNOW
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR SE HOWEVER WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

SNOW SHOULD PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
INTO THE FA ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL BLO AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A 500MB
TROUGH EXITING OFF TO THE EAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FA. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEAK RIDGING REPLACES IT. 850MB
TEMPS STILL BELOW ZERO SO FRI TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
RIDGING WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH NEXT TROUGH QUICKLY MOVING IN FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. AT THE SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA BRINGING A SWATH OF RAIN MIXED AT TIMES OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT SNOW. FINALLY START SEEING SOME RIDGING AGAIN BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. DETAILS STILL VAGUE THIS FAR OUT WITH SOME MODELS QUICKER ON
WARMING THAN OTHERS. DESPITE THAT WILL STICK WITH GUIDANCE TEMPS
WHICH INDICATE HIGHS FINALLY RISING BACK TO THE WARMER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

WINDS TO DIMINISH AND GO LIGHT NORTHWEST AND THEN SLOWLY TURN
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PICK UP WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS OR SO DVL BASIN AND THEN RRV TUESDAY
MIDDAY-AFTN. CIRRUS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TUES AFTN-
EVE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MOVE INTO DVL BASIN
BY 06Z WED BUT DUE TO UNCERTAIN TIMING LEFT PRECIP OUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

FOR THE MINNESOTA TRIBS...THE HALLOCK GAGE SEEMS TO BE WORKING
AGAIN. THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK IS CRESTING IN MODERATE
FLOOD STAGE...WHILE THE SNAKE RIVER AT ALVARADO REMAINS IN MINOR
FLOOD STAGE.

ON THE MAINSTEM RED...OSLO AND GRAND FORKS CONTINUE TO FALL. STAGES
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE...WITH A CREST AT DRAYTON IN MINOR
FLOOD STAGE MID/LATE WEEK...AND AT PEMBINA OVER THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY APPROACHING MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.TO

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI







000
FXUS63 KBIS 150240
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
940 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

ISSUED A RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY
AS THE CREEK LEVEL IS NOW ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE (10 FEET) DUE TO
SNOWMELT. IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR FLOOD STAGE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHEN IT WILL BEGIN A SLOW FALL.

OTHERWISE...ONLY EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST STATEWIDE
OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REMOVE LATE AFTERNOON SNOW/RAIN SHOWER WORDING
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY AIRMASS AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE NICELY OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
TEMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...LOWERED FORECAST LOWS A FEW DEGREES EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
TONIGHT...AND MAINTAINED LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S WEST.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
BECOME PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH RELATIVELY WARM GROUND AND ROAD TEMPS...NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT MOTORISTS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR QUICK REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS EARLY FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST...WHICH WAY
BE ENOUGH TO OBSCURE THE LUNAR ECLIPSE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND TEMPS
THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH A LARGE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST FROM THE
LOWER 30S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WHERE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT HELPING TO STEER AN EMBEDDED S/WV INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOST PRECIPITATION GENERATED
FROM THE MID LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...STRONG
THERMAL UPGLIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
SECTOR OF THE LOW WILL BRING A HEALTHY SWATH OF MOISTURE ACROSS MY
NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES...FROM FAR SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINOT AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS THIS SAME AREA BY ANOTHER
AREA OF PVA MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS FORCING DECREASES.

MODELS STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON QPF. WHILE THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE ON
THE DRY SIDE WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF WATER OVER MY FAR
NORTHEAST (ROLETTE COUNTY) TAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE 12Z
GEM (WHICH NAILED SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAYS SNOWFALL) IS WETTER WITH A
SWATH OF THREE TENTHS NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST. BASED ON ITS SUPERIOR
PERFORMANCE LAST NIGHT/TODAY...LEANED IN THE GEM`S DIRECTION. CAA
NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING WILL CHANGES MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO SNOW. APPLYING THE 12Z/GFS/NAM RATIOS...I
CALCULATE 1-3 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH
HALF AN INCH AT KISN AND NEAR ONE INCH AT BISMARCK.

MODEL SPREAD INCREASES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...REGARDING THE TRACK OF A CLOSED LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER RATHER POTENT S/WV CROSSING
THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THE FIRST HALF OF THIS COMING EASTER
WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO WATCH BOTH THESE WAVES AS EACH HAS SOME
POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT THE STATE. LIGHT SNOW AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (KMOT) TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KFGF 150005
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
705 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

EXPECT CLEARING EARLY THIS EVE AS EXPECTED. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND MIDWEEK SNOW CHANCES.
MODELS COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT BUT STILL A SPREAD ON QPF AND
AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOW POTENTIAL WHICH MAY AFFECT THE FAR SE FA.
WILL CURRENTLY FOLLOW PREFERRED BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF.

CURRENT POPCORN SHSN ACROSS SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THIS POINT LEFT SHSN OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE EVENING BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE
CU FIELD SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE LEAVING FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. WITH COLD COLUMN IN PLACE WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET BUT CONTINUED COLD ALTHOUGH WITH
INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND SOME WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES MAY BE
A BIT WARMER.

LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE SHOULD GET INTO NW FA
SPREADING SE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TO NEAR FSD BY MORNING. DID INCREASE POPS WITH BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

AS SURFACE LOW PROPAGATES EAST ON WEDNESDAY MAIN CONCERN IS WHERE
DEFORMATION SNOW BAND SETS UP. ECMWF OVERALL WEAKEST ON QPF. GFS
SHOWS MAIN SNOW BAND JUST TO THE SE OF THE FA WITH GEM/NAM FARTHER
NORTH IMPACTING SE TIER OF COUNTIES. DID INCREASE POPS/SNOW
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR SE HOWEVER WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

SNOW SHOULD PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
INTO THE FA ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL BLO AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A 500MB
TROUGH EXITING OFF TO THE EAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FA. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEAK RIDGING REPLACES IT. 850MB
TEMPS STILL BELOW ZERO SO FRI TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
RIDGING WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH NEXT TROUGH QUICKLY MOVING IN FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. AT THE SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA BRINGING A SWATH OF RAIN MIXED AT TIMES OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT SNOW. FINALLY START SEEING SOME RIDGING AGAIN BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. DETAILS STILL VAGUE THIS FAR OUT WITH SOME MODELS QUICKER ON
WARMING THAN OTHERS. DESPITE THAT WILL STICK WITH GUIDANCE TEMPS
WHICH INDICATE HIGHS FINALLY RISING BACK TO THE WARMER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

REMAINING CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING LEAVING CLEAR SKY.
SOME CIRRUS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE. NORTH-NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISHI QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET LEAVING LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
THEN SOUTHEAST WINDS PICKING UP TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ONLY A FEW CHANGES MADE TO RIVER FORECAST POINTS TODAY.
THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE BUFFALO RIVER NEAR DILWORTH WAS CANCELLED.
SOME MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT BELOW MINOR
FLOOD STAGE. THE FLOOD WARNING ON THE ROSEAU RIVER AT ROSEAU WAS
ALSO DROPPED...AS STAGES HAVE RECEDED BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

OTHERWISE FOR THE MINNESOTA TRIBS...THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK IS
NEAR ITS EXPECTED CREST TODAY IN MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...WHILE THE
SNAKE RIVER AT ALVARADO REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

ON THE MAINSTEM RED...BOTH EAST GRAND FORKS AND OSLO HAVE CRESTED
AND HAVE BEGUN A SLOW DECLINE. OSLO REMAINS IN MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
AND EAST GRAND FORKS IN MINOR. FARTHER NORTH...STAGES WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY RISE...WITH A CREST AT DRAYTON IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE
MID/LATE WEEK...AND AT PEMBINA OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
APPROACHING MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.

WILL ALLOW THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN WALSH COUNTY TO
EXPIRE...WITH THE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAINING FOR AREAS CLOSER TO

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI






000
FXUS63 KBIS 142351
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
651 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST STATEWIDE
OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REMOVE LATE AFTERNOON SNOW/RAIN SHOWER WORDING
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY AIRMASS AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE NICELY OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
TEMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...LOWERED FORECAST LOWS A FEW DEGREES EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
TONIGHT...AND MAINTAINED LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S WEST.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
BECOME PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH RELATIVELY WARM GROUND AND ROAD TEMPS...NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT MOTORISTS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR QUICK REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS EARLY FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST...WHICH WAY
BE ENOUGH TO OBSCURE THE LUNAR ECLIPSE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND TEMPS
THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH A LARGE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST FROM THE
LOWER 30S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WHERE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT HELPING TO STEER AN EMBEDDED S/WV INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOST PRECIPITATION GENERATED
FROM THE MID LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...STRONG
THERMAL UPGLIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
SECTOR OF THE LOW WILL BRING A HEALTHY SWATH OF MOISTURE ACROSS MY
NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES...FROM FAR SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINOT AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS THIS SAME AREA BY ANOTHER
AREA OF PVA MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS FORCING DECREASES.

MODELS STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON QPF. WHILE THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE ON
THE DRY SIDE WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF WATER OVER MY FAR
NORTHEAST (ROLETTE COUNTY) TAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE 12Z
GEM (WHICH NAILED SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAYS SNOWFALL) IS WETTER WITH A
SWATH OF THREE TENTHS NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST. BASED ON ITS SUPERIOR
PERFORMANCE LAST NIGHT/TODAY...LEANED IN THE GEM`S DIRECTION. CAA
NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING WILL CHANGES MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO SNOW. APPLYING THE 12Z/GFS/NAM RATIOS...I
CALCULATE 1-3 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH
HALF AN INCH AT KISN AND NEAR ONE INCH AT BISMARCK.

MODEL SPREAD INCREASES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...REGARDING THE TRACK OF A CLOSED LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER RATHER POTENT S/WV CROSSING
THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THE FIRST HALF OF THIS COMING EASTER
WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO WATCH BOTH THESE WAVES AS EACH HAS SOME
POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT THE STATE. LIGHT SNOW AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (KMOT) TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 142025
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
325 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
BECOME PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH RELATIVELY WARM GROUND AND ROAD TEMPS...NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT MOTORISTS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR QUICK REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS EARLY FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST...WHICH WAY
BE ENOUGH TO OBSCURE THE LUNAR ECLIPSE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND TEMPS
THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH A LARGE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST FROM THE
LOWER 30S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WHERE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT HELPING TO STEER AN EMBEDDED S/WV INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOST PRECIPITATION GENERATED
FROM THE MID LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...STRONG
THERMAL UPGLIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
SECTOR OF THE LOW WILL BRING A HEALTHY SWATH OF MOISTURE ACROSS MY
NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES...FROM FAR SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINOT AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS THIS SAME AREA BY ANOTHER
AREA OF PVA MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS FORCING DECREASES.

MODELS STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON QPF. WHILE THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE ON
THE DRY SIDE WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF WATER OVER MY FAR
NORTHEAST (ROLETTE COUNTY) TAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE 12Z
GEM (WHICH NAILED SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAYS SNOWFALL) IS WETTER WITH A
SWATH OF THREE TENTHS NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST. BASED ON ITS SUPERIOR
PERFORMANCE LAST NIGHT/TODAY...LEANED IN THE GEM`S DIRECTION. CAA
NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING WILL CHANGES MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO SNOW. APPLYING THE 12Z/GFS/NAM RATIOS...I
CALCULATE 1-3 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH
HALF AN INCH AT KISN AND NEAR ONE INCH AT BISMARCK.

MODEL SPREAD INCREASES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...REGARDING THE TRACK OF A CLOSED LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER RATHER POTENT S/WV CROSSING
THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THE FIRST HALF OF THIS COMING EASTER
WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO WATCH BOTH THESE WAVES AS EACH HAS SOME
POTENTIAL.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

PERIODS OF MVFR CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING KISN/KBIS/KJMS. EXPECT A
DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...NH










000
FXUS63 KFGF 141947
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
247 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND MIDWEEK SNOW CHANCES.
MODELS COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT BUT STILL A SPREAD ON QPF AND
AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOW POTENTIAL WHICH MAY AFFECT THE FAR SE FA.
WILL CURRENTLY FOLLOW PREFERRED BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF.

CURRENT POPCORN SHSN ACROSS SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THIS POINT LEFT SHSN OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE EVENING BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE
CU FIELD SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE LEAVING FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. WITH COLD COLUMN IN PLACE WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET BUT CONTINUED COLD ALTHOUGH WITH
INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND SOME WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES MAY BE
A BIT WARMER.

LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE SHOULD GET INTO NW FA
SPREADING SE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TO NEAR FSD BY MORNING. DID INCREASE POPS WITH BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

AS SURFACE LOW PROPAGATES EAST ON WEDNESDAY MAIN CONCERN IS WHERE
DEFORMATION SNOW BAND SETS UP. ECMWF OVERALL WEAKEST ON QPF. GFS
SHOWS MAIN SNOW BAND JUST TO THE SE OF THE FA WITH GEM/NAM FARTHER
NORTH IMPACTING SE TIER OF COUNTIES. DID INCREASE POPS/SNOW
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR SE HOWEVER WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

SNOW SHOULD PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
INTO THE FA ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL BLO AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A 500MB
TROUGH EXITING OFF TO THE EAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FA. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEAK RIDGING REPLACES IT. 850MB
TEMPS STILL BELOW ZERO SO FRI TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
RIDGING WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH NEXT TROUGH QUICKLY MOVING IN FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. AT THE SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA BRINGING A SWATH OF RAIN MIXED AT TIMES OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT SNOW. FINALLY START SEEING SOME RIDGING AGAIN BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. DETAILS STILL VAGUE THIS FAR OUT WITH SOME MODELS QUICKER ON
WARMING THAN OTHERS. DESPITE THAT WILL STICK WITH GUIDANCE TEMPS
WHICH INDICATE HIGHS FINALLY RISING BACK TO THE WARMER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS FORMED LATE THIS MORNING AND IT SHOULD REMAIN
INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO HAVE SOME POPCORN SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE
ALREADY MOVED THROUGH KDVL/KGFK AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTH AND AFFECT KFAR AS WELL. NOT SURE ABOUT THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF
THESE SHOWERS SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY AT KTVF OR KBJI. CUMULUS
SHOULD FADE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF THIS
EVENING. ND TAFS WILL SEE RETURN SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW KICK IN BY
LATER TUE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ONLY A FEW CHANGES MADE TO RIVER FORECAST POINTS TODAY.
THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE BUFFALO RIVER NEAR DILWORTH WAS CANCELLED.
SOME MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT BELOW MINOR
FLOOD STAGE. THE FLOOD WARNING ON THE ROSEAU RIVER AT ROSEAU WAS
ALSO DROPPED...AS STAGES HAVE RECEDED BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

OTHERWISE FOR THE MINNESOTA TRIBS...THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK IS
NEAR ITS EXPECTED CREST TODAY IN MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...WHILE THE
SNAKE RIVER AT ALVARADO REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

ON THE MAINSTEM RED...BOTH EAST GRAND FORKS AND OSLO HAVE CRESTED
AND HAVE BEGUN A SLOW DECLINE. OSLO REMAINS IN MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
AND EAST GRAND FORKS IN MINOR. FARTHER NORTH...STAGES WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY RISE...WITH A CREST AT DRAYTON IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE
MID/LATE WEEK...AND AT PEMBINA OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
APPROACHING MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.

WILL ALLOW THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN WALSH COUNTY TO
EXPIRE...WITH THE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAINING FOR AREAS CLOSER TO
THE RED RIVER.
&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON
HYDRO...MAKOWSKI






000
FXUS63 KFGF 141734
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1234 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

WILL MAINTAIN FLURRIES/SHSN INTO THE AFTERNOON BASED ON RADAR
RETURNS AND EXTENSIVE CU FIELD AND COLD AIRMASS ALOFT. NO CHANGES
MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

LOWERED MORNING POPS TO JUST FLURRIES AS MAIN RETURNS WILL REMAIN
TO THE WEST OF THE FA. THERE IS A BAND OF CLOUDS ENTERING CENTRAL
FA WHICH HAS PRODUCED BRIEF FLURRIES SO WILL FOLLOW THAT SOUTHWARD
WITH FLURRY MENTION. NO OTHER CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER AND POPS. BISMARCK HAS SEEN SOME
FLUFFY ACCUMULATING SNOW BUT THINK THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND WHAT WE DO GET WILL BE PRETTY
MINIMAL. MORE LIKE FLURRIES WITH A DUSTING AT MOST OF
ACCUMULATION. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS AT SOME SPOTS BUT
THINK THEY SHOULD STILL RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S EVEN
WITH CU REFORMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR FOR MINIMAL PRECIP TODAY WILL BE THE
PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE MAIN AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS INTO MN TODAY. RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW THERE HAS BEEN SOME
LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...AND SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE THIS AREA MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. WHILE
MAIN VORT WILL BE HEADING AWAY FROM US DURING THE DAY...THERE IS
ALSO THE COLD POOL ALOFT. THAT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 20S...WHICH WE SHOULD HIT AND SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE. BUMPED UP POPS JUST A TAD IN THE WEST WHERE
THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE...IT SEEMS PRETTY DRY IN THE EAST SO
VIRGA IS MORE LIKELY. EVEN WHERE PRECIP DOES REACH THE GROUND IT
SEEMS THAT AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

TONIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE COLD AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS AND THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST. KEPT TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT THE
WEST SHOULD SEE SOME TEENS WITH WINDS AND MIXING INCREASING BY
LATE IN THE NIGHT AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER MT. THE SOUTHEAST TO
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP INTO TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY
COLD BUT WITH 850MB TEMPS MODERATING A BIT THE SOUTH COULD MANAGE
TO REACH THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL QUITE A SPREAD AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND
MOST PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER BUT ALSO
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE. THE GEM IS IN BETWEEN...WHILE THE NAM IS THE
SLOWEST AND HAS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP CAMP OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR QUITE A LONG TIME. THE NAM SEEMS OVERDONE AS
FAR AS SNOW...SO LEANED TOWARDS A GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION. THERE SHOULD
BE SOME PRECIP STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A NORTHERN BRANCH DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO
APPROACH. AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM WESTERN SD TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY...AND SOME RAIN MAY
MIX IN WITH THE SOUTH WHICH WILL AFFECT ACCUMULATIONS. FOR NOW
BROAD BRUSHED THE AREA WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...BUT
FULLY EXPECT THIS WILL CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID APRIL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT...BUT 500 HPA HEIGHTS BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS ARE MESSY
WITH THE DETAILS. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW WILL
WOBBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY/FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
POSSIBLE SHORT-WAVE FOR SATURDAY AND THEN BUILDING RIDGE TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS PATTERN...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION BEING SATURDAY WHEN THERE IS A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ALTHOUGH ONLY THE ECMWF DEVELOPS QPF
WHEREAS THE GFS IS DRY. FOR THE MOST PART...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY
THURSDAY (HIGHS IN THE 30S) WITH A GRADUAL WARM-UP FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS FORMED LATE THIS MORNING AND IT SHOULD REMAIN
INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO HAVE SOME POPCORN SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE
ALREADY MOVED THROUGH KDVL/KGFK AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTH AND AFFECT KFAR AS WELL. NOT SURE ABOUT THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF
THESE SHOWERS SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY AT KTVF OR KBJI. CUMULUS
SHOULD FADE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF THIS
EVENING. ND TAFS WILL SEE RETURN SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW KICK IN BY
LATER TUE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ONLY A FEW CHANGES MADE TO RIVER FORECAST POINTS TODAY.
THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE BUFFALO RIVER NEAR DILWORTH WAS CANCELLED.
SOME MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT BELOW MINOR
FLOOD STAGE. THE FLOOD WARNING ON THE ROSEAU RIVER AT ROSEAU WAS
ALSO DROPPED...AS STAGES HAVE RECEDED BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

OTHERWISE FOR THE MINNESOTA TRIBS...THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK IS
NEAR ITS EXPECTED CREST TODAY IN MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...WHILE THE
SNAKE RIVER AT ALVARADO REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

ON THE MAINSTEM RED...BOTH EAST GRAND FORKS AND OSLO HAVE CRESTED
AND HAVE BEGUN A SLOW DECLINE. OSLO REMAINS IN MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
AND EAST GRAND FORKS IN MINOR. FARTHER NORTH...STAGES WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY RISE...WITH A CREST AT DRAYTON IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE
MID/LATE WEEK...AND AT PEMBINA OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
APPROACHING MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.

WILL ALLOW THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN WALSH COUNTY TO
EXPIRE...WITH THE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAINING FOR AREAS CLOSER TO
THE RED RIVER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/ROGERS
AVIATION...GODON
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI







000
FXUS63 KBIS 141711
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1211 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

UPDATE FOR POP AND WEATHER TRENDS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
LINGERING LONGER THAN PREVIOUS EXPECTED...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL BUT THE WESTERN COUNTIES. ROAD
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED WITH THE MELTING SNOW...BUT MOTORISTS CAN
EXPECT BRIEFLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE SNOW SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

UPDATE FOR POP/WEATHER TRENDS. A NARROW SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. MOST ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN
IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...WHILE AN ISOLATED 5 INCH AMOUNT
REPORTED IN PARSHALL-MOUNTRAIL COUNTY BY THE PUBLIC. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS INDICATED LOW LEVEL
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND SNOW RATIOS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING AROUND 40:1. THE SNOW BAND IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL OMEGA.
THE SNOW SHOULD MELT OFF QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT ROADS WILL
REMAIN SLICK THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

REFINED THE SNOW AREA SOUTH CENTRAL. UP TO 2 INCHES SNOW IN A
NARROW BAND IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SNOW BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR GLENDIVE TO DICKINSON TO
BISMARCK AND SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. REGIONAL RADARS WERE
INDICATING LIGHT PRECIPITATION (LIGHT SNOW) FROM NEAR TIOGA AND
STANLEY TO GARRISON TOWARDS INTERSTATE 94. GARRISON HAD REPORTED A
HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH THE PAST HOUR...SO NOT ONLY ARE SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.

THUS HAVE RAISED CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING. THE CHANCES DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION TO THE
EAST...AND BY AFTERNOON KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SOUTH OF JAMESTOWN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE
TODAY AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION.

TONIGHT THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MOVES INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHILE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES THE
STATE FROM THE WEST. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE FROM ALBERTA TO MONTANA
TO WYOMING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HAVE BECOME
ESTABLISHED IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE...AND LIGHT
WINDS EARLY MONDAY EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SNOW EVENT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. OVERALL THE COLD PATTERN WILL BE
MOST PRONOUNCED ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL EXTEND INTO THURSDAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA BEFORE MODERATING TEMPERATURES
BEGIN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE MODELS FOR THE SNOW EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE 00Z NAM COLDER AND WETTER THAN EITHER THE
ECMWF OR GFS. FOLLOWED THE GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE AS THE NAM LOOKS A
BIT TOO WET NOW THAT THE H250 JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO MINNESOTA BY WEDNESDAY...AND
THUS MAY NOT IMPACT THE FORCING AS MUCH UP NORTH. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A CONCERN FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...DID NIT MENTION FREEZING RAIN
AT THIS TIME DUE TO ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL SPREAD. BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TUESDAY EVENING AND OVER NIGHT. 1 TO
2 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS REASONABLE FROM NEAR MINOT SOUTH THROUGH
HARVEY AND OAKES.

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED
WEDNESDAY...BUT A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES TAKES PLACE
BEGINNING THURSDAY AND BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S ARE FORECAST WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN. DE EMPHASIZED PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
FRONT THAT WILL INTRODUCE THE MILD WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

PERIODS OF MVFR CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING KISN/KBIS/KJMS. EXPECT A
DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 141428
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
928 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

LOWERED MORNING POPS TO JUST FLURRIES AS MAIN RETURNS WILL REMAIN
TO THE WEST OF THE FA. THERE IS A BAND OF CLOUDS ENTERING CENTRAL
FA WHICH HAS PRODUCED BRIEF FLURRIES SO WILL FOLLOW THAT SOUTHWARD
WITH FLURRY MENTION. NO OTHER CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER AND POPS. BISMARCK HAS SEEN SOME
FLUFFY ACCUMULATING SNOW BUT THINK THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND WHAT WE DO GET WILL BE PRETTY
MINIMAL. MORE LIKE FLURRIES WITH A DUSTING AT MOST OF
ACCUMULATION. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS AT SOME SPOTS BUT
THINK THEY SHOULD STILL RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S EVEN
WITH CU REFORMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR FOR MINIMAL PRECIP TODAY WILL BE THE
PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE MAIN AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS INTO MN TODAY. RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW THERE HAS BEEN SOME
LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...AND SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE THIS AREA MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. WHILE
MAIN VORT WILL BE HEADING AWAY FROM US DURING THE DAY...THERE IS
ALSO THE COLD POOL ALOFT. THAT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 20S...WHICH WE SHOULD HIT AND SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE. BUMPED UP POPS JUST A TAD IN THE WEST WHERE
THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE...IT SEEMS PRETTY DRY IN THE EAST SO
VIRGA IS MORE LIKELY. EVEN WHERE PRECIP DOES REACH THE GROUND IT
SEEMS THAT AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

TONIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE COLD AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS AND THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST. KEPT TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT THE
WEST SHOULD SEE SOME TEENS WITH WINDS AND MIXING INCREASING BY
LATE IN THE NIGHT AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER MT. THE SOUTHEAST TO
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP INTO TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY
COLD BUT WITH 850MB TEMPS MODERATING A BIT THE SOUTH COULD MANAGE
TO REACH THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL QUITE A SPREAD AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND
MOST PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER BUT ALSO
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE. THE GEM IS IN BETWEEN...WHILE THE NAM IS THE
SLOWEST AND HAS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP CAMP OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR QUITE A LONG TIME. THE NAM SEEMS OVERDONE AS
FAR AS SNOW...SO LEANED TOWARDS A GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION. THERE SHOULD
BE SOME PRECIP STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A NORTHERN BRANCH DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO
APPROACH. AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM WESTERN SD TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY...AND SOME RAIN MAY
MIX IN WITH THE SOUTH WHICH WILL AFFECT ACCUMULATIONS. FOR NOW
BROAD BRUSHED THE AREA WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...BUT
FULLY EXPECT THIS WILL CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID APRIL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT...BUT 500 HPA HEIGHTS BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS ARE MESSY
WITH THE DETAILS. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW WILL
WOBBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY/FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
POSSIBLE SHORT-WAVE FOR SATURDAY AND THEN BUILDING RIDGE TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS PATTERN...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION BEING SATURDAY WHEN THERE IS A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ALTHOUGH ONLY THE ECMWF DEVELOPS QPF
WHEREAS THE GFS IS DRY. FOR THE MOST PART...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY
THURSDAY (HIGHS IN THE 30S) WITH A GRADUAL WARM-UP FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID CLOUDS
OVER THE AREA. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST UP AGAIN TO AROUND 20 TO 25
KTS IN SOME SPOTS. CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP AS WE REACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE BUT THINK THAT CIGS WILL STAY IN THE 4000-6000 FT
RANGE. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY THIS EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
SPRING SNOW MELT RUNOFF CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE RED RIVER OF THE
NORTH BASIN WITH MODERATE FLOODING AT HALLOCK AND OSLO AND MINOR
FLOODING AT ROSEAU...ALVARADO AND ON THE RED AT GRAND FORKS...
DRAYTON AND LATER THIS WEEK PEMBINA.

THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK HAS RISEN TO MODERATE LEVELS AND
CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED BY ICE. ADDITIONAL RISES OF A HALF OF A
FOOT OR SO ARE EXPECTED. AT ALVARADO RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE
AND ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. AT ROSEAU THE
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES TO RECEDE. RIVER LEVELS AT ABOVE WARREN HAD
RISEN TO NEAR (INCONSEQUENTIAL) FLOOD STAGE LAST EVENING...BUT HAVE
SINCE DROPPED BACK BELOW 67.0 FEET. CALLED OFFICIALS TO INVESTIGATE
AND THEY FOUND NOTHING UNTOWARD. WIRE WEIGHT DATA STILL BEING
RECEIVED FOR ROSEAU RIVER AND THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/ROGERS
AVIATION...JR
HYDROLOGY...ROGERS/WJB







000
FXUS63 KBIS 141351
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
851 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

UPDATE FOR POP/WEATHER TRENDS. A NARROW SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. MOST ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN
IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...WHILE AN ISOLATED 5 INCH AMOUNT
REPORTED IN PARSHALL-MOUNTRAIL COUNTY BY THE PUBLIC. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS INDICATED LOW LEVEL
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND SNOW RATIOS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING AROUND 40:1. THE SNOW BAND IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL OMEGA.
THE SNOW SHOULD MELT OFF QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT ROADS WILL
REMAIN SLICK THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

REFINED THE SNOW AREA SOUTH CENTRAL. UP TO 2 INCHES SNOW IN A
NARROW BAND IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SNOW BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR GLENDIVE TO DICKINSON TO
BISMARCK AND SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. REGIONAL RADARS WERE
INDICATING LIGHT PRECIPITATION (LIGHT SNOW) FROM NEAR TIOGA AND
STANLEY TO GARRISON TOWARDS INTERSTATE 94. GARRISON HAD REPORTED A
HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH THE PAST HOUR...SO NOT ONLY ARE SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.

THUS HAVE RAISED CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING. THE CHANCES DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION TO THE
EAST...AND BY AFTERNOON KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SOUTH OF JAMESTOWN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE
TODAY AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION.

TONIGHT THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MOVES INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHILE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES THE
STATE FROM THE WEST. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE FROM ALBERTA TO MONTANA
TO WYOMING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HAVE BECOME
ESTABLISHED IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE...AND LIGHT
WINDS EARLY MONDAY EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SNOW EVENT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. OVERALL THE COLD PATTERN WILL BE
MOST PRONOUNCED ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL EXTEND INTO THURSDAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA BEFORE MODERATING TEMPERATURES
BEGIN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE MODELS FOR THE SNOW EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE 00Z NAM COLDER AND WETTER THAN EITHER THE
ECMWF OR GFS. FOLLOWED THE GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE AS THE NAM LOOKS A
BIT TOO WET NOW THAT THE H250 JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO MINNESOTA BY WEDNESDAY...AND
THUS MAY NOT IMPACT THE FORCING AS MUCH UP NORTH. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A CONCERN FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...DID NIT MENTION FREEZING RAIN
AT THIS TIME DUE TO ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL SPREAD. BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TUESDAY EVENING AND OVER NIGHT. 1 TO
2 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS REASONABLE FROM NEAR MINOT SOUTH THROUGH
HARVEY AND OAKES.

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED
WEDNESDAY...BUT A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES TAKES PLACE
BEGINNING THURSDAY AND BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S ARE FORECAST WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN. DE EMPHASIZED PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
FRONT THAT WILL INTRODUCE THE MILD WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR AT KISN/KBIS/KDIK/KMOT THROUGH 15Z. VSBYS
REDUCED 1-3 SM IN LIGHT SNOW. CIGS BECOMING MVFR AT KJMS MAINLY 14Z
THROUGH 18Z. VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 141127
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
627 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER AND POPS. BISMARCK HAS SEEN SOME
FLUFFY ACCUMULATING SNOW BUT THINK THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND WHAT WE DO GET WILL BE PRETTY
MINIMAL. MORE LIKE FLURRIES WITH A DUSTING AT MOST OF
ACCUMULATION. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS AT SOME SPOTS BUT
THINK THEY SHOULD STILL RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S EVEN
WITH CU REFORMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR FOR MINIMAL PRECIP TODAY WILL BE THE
PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE MAIN AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS INTO MN TODAY. RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW THERE HAS BEEN SOME
LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...AND SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE THIS AREA MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. WHILE
MAIN VORT WILL BE HEADING AWAY FROM US DURING THE DAY...THERE IS
ALSO THE COLD POOL ALOFT. THAT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 20S...WHICH WE SHOULD HIT AND SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE. BUMPED UP POPS JUST A TAD IN THE WEST WHERE
THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE...IT SEEMS PRETTY DRY IN THE EAST SO
VIRGA IS MORE LIKELY. EVEN WHERE PRECIP DOES REACH THE GROUND IT
SEEMS THAT AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

TONIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE COLD AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS AND THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST. KEPT TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT THE
WEST SHOULD SEE SOME TEENS WITH WINDS AND MIXING INCREASING BY
LATE IN THE NIGHT AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER MT. THE SOUTHEAST TO
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP INTO TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY
COLD BUT WITH 850MB TEMPS MODERATING A BIT THE SOUTH COULD MANAGE
TO REACH THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL QUITE A SPREAD AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND
MOST PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER BUT ALSO
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE. THE GEM IS IN BETWEEN...WHILE THE NAM IS THE
SLOWEST AND HAS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP CAMP OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR QUITE A LONG TIME. THE NAM SEEMS OVERDONE AS
FAR AS SNOW...SO LEANED TOWARDS A GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION. THERE SHOULD
BE SOME PRECIP STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A NORTHERN BRANCH DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO
APPROACH. AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM WESTERN SD TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY...AND SOME RAIN MAY
MIX IN WITH THE SOUTH WHICH WILL AFFECT ACCUMULATIONS. FOR NOW
BROAD BRUSHED THE AREA WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...BUT
FULLY EXPECT THIS WILL CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID APRIL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT...BUT 500 HPA HEIGHTS BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS ARE MESSY
WITH THE DETAILS. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW WILL
WOBBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY/FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
POSSIBLE SHORT-WAVE FOR SATURDAY AND THEN BUILDING RIDGE TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS PATTERN...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION BEING SATURDAY WHEN THERE IS A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ALTHOUGH ONLY THE ECMWF DEVELOPS QPF
WHEREAS THE GFS IS DRY. FOR THE MOST PART...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY
THURSDAY (HIGHS IN THE 30S) WITH A GRADUAL WARM-UP FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID CLOUDS
OVER THE AREA. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST UP AGAIN TO AROUND 20 TO 25
KTS IN SOME SPOTS. CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP AS WE REACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE BUT THINK THAT CIGS WILL STAY IN THE 4000-6000 FT
RANGE. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
SPRING SNOW MELT RUNOFF CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE RED RIVER OF THE
NORTH BASIN WITH MODERATE FLOODING AT HALLOCK AND OSLO AND MINOR
FLOODING AT ROSEAU...ALVARADO AND ON THE RED AT GRAND FORKS...
DRAYTON AND LATER THIS WEEK PEMBINA.

THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK HAS RISEN TO MODERATE LEVELS AND
CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED BY ICE. ADDITIONAL RISES OF A HALF OF A
FOOT OR SO ARE EXPECTED. AT ALVARADO RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE
AND ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. AT ROSEAU THE
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES TO RECEDE. RIVER LEVELS AT ABOVE WARREN HAD
RISEN TO NEAR (INCONSEQUENTIAL) FLOOD STAGE LAST EVENING...BUT HAVE
SINCE DROPPED BACK BELOW 67.0 FEET. CALLED OFFICIALS TO INVESTIGATE
AND THEY FOUND NOTHING UNTOWARD. WIRE WEIGHT DATA STILL BEING
RECEIVED FOR ROSEAU RIVER AND THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/ROGERS
AVIATION...JR
HYDROLOGY...ROGERS/WJB







000
FXUS63 KBIS 141115
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
615 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

REFINED THE SNOW AREA SOUTH CENTRAL. UP TO 2 INCHES SNOW IN A
NARROW BAND IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SNOW BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR GLENDIVE TO DICKINSON TO
BISMARCK AND SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. REGIONAL RADARS WERE
INDICATING LIGHT PRECIPITATION (LIGHT SNOW) FROM NEAR TIOGA AND
STANLEY TO GARRISON TOWARDS INTERSTATE 94. GARRISON HAD REPORTED A
HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH THE PAST HOUR...SO NOT ONLY ARE SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.

THUS HAVE RAISED CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING. THE CHANCES DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION TO THE
EAST...AND BY AFTERNOON KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SOUTH OF JAMESTOWN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE
TODAY AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION.

TONIGHT THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MOVES INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHILE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES THE
STATE FROM THE WEST. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE FROM ALBERTA TO MONTANA
TO WYOMING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HAVE BECOME
ESTABLISHED IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE...AND LIGHT
WINDS EARLY MONDAY EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SNOW EVENT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. OVERALL THE COLD PATTERN WILL BE
MOST PRONOUNCED ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL EXTEND INTO THURSDAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA BEFORE MODERATING TEMPERATURES
BEGIN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE MODELS FOR THE SNOW EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE 00Z NAM COLDER AND WETTER THAN EITHER THE
ECMWF OR GFS. FOLLOWED THE GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE AS THE NAM LOOKS A
BIT TOO WET NOW THAT THE H250 JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO MINNESOTA BY WEDNESDAY...AND
THUS MAY NOT IMPACT THE FORCING AS MUCH UP NORTH. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A CONCERN FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...DID NIT MENTION FREEZING RAIN
AT THIS TIME DUE TO ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL SPREAD. BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TUESDAY EVENING AND OVER NIGHT. 1 TO
2 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS REASONABLE FROM NEAR MINOT SOUTH THROUGH
HARVEY AND OAKES.

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED
WEDNESDAY...BUT A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES TAKES PLACE
BEGINNING THURSDAY AND BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S ARE FORECAST WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN. DE EMPHASIZED PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
FRONT THAT WILL INTRODUCE THE MILD WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR AT KISN/KBIS/KDIK/KMOT THROUGH 15Z. VSBYS
REDUCED 1-3 SM IN LIGHT SNOW. CIGS BECOMING MVFR AT KJMS MAINLY 14Z
THROUGH 18Z. VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 140847
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
347 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR GLENDIVE TO DICKINSON TO
BISMARCK AND SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. REGIONAL RADARS WERE
INDICATING LIGHT PRECIPITATION (LIGHT SNOW) FROM NEAR TIOGA AND
STANLEY TO GARRISON TOWARDS INTERSTATE 94. GARRISON HAD REPORTED A
HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH THE PAST HOUR...SO NOT ONLY ARE SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.

THUS HAVE RAISED CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING. THE CHANCES DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION TO THE
EAST...AND BY AFTERNOON KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SOUTH OF JAMESTOWN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE
TODAY AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION.

TONIGHT THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MOVES INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHILE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES THE
STATE FROM THE WEST. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE FROM ALBERTA TO MONTANA
TO WYOMING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HAVE BECOME
ESTABLISHED IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE...AND LIGHT
WINDS EARLY MONDAY EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SNOW EVENT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. OVERALL THE COLD PATTERN WILL BE
MOST PRONOUNCED ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL EXTEND INTO THURSDAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA BEFORE MODERATING TEMPERATURES
BEGIN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE MODELS FOR THE SNOW EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE 00Z NAM COLDER AND WETTER THAN EITHER THE
ECMWF OR GFS. FOLLOWED THE GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE AS THE NAM LOOKS A
BIT TOO WET NOW THAT THE H250 JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO MINNESOTA BY WEDNESDAY...AND
THUS MAY NOT IMPACT THE FORCING AS MUCH UP NORTH. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A CONCERN FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...DID NIT MENTION FREEZING RAIN
AT THIS TIME DUE TO ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL SPREAD. BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TUESDAY EVENING AND OVER NIGHT. 1 TO
2 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS REASONABLE FROM NEAR MINOT SOUTH THROUGH
HARVEY AND OAKES.

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED
WEDNESDAY...BUT A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES TAKES PLACE
BEGINNING THURSDAY AND BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S ARE FORECAST WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN. DE EMPHASIZED PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
FRONT THAT WILL INTRODUCE THE MILD WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WITH -SN OVER KISN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE/EXPAND
SOUTH AND EAST OVER TAF SITES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. CIGS
BECOMING VFR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...BEGINNING AROUND 11Z AT
KISN TO AROUND 18Z AT KJMS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV









000
FXUS63 KFGF 140838
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
338 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR FOR MINIMAL PRECIP TODAY WILL BE THE
PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE MAIN AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS INTO MN TODAY. RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW THERE HAS BEEN SOME
LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...AND SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE THIS AREA MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. WHILE
MAIN VORT WILL BE HEADING AWAY FROM US DURING THE DAY...THERE IS
ALSO THE COLD POOL ALOFT. THAT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 20S...WHICH WE SHOULD HIT AND SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE. BUMPED UP POPS JUST A TAD IN THE WEST WHERE
THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE...IT SEEMS PRETTY DRY IN THE EAST SO
VIRGA IS MORE LIKELY. EVEN WHERE PRECIP DOES REACH THE GROUND IT
SEEMS THAT AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

TONIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE COLD AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS AND THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST. KEPT TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT THE
WEST SHOULD SEE SOME TEENS WITH WINDS AND MIXING INCREASING BY
LATE IN THE NIGHT AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER MT. THE SOUTHEAST TO
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP INTO TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY
COLD BUT WITH 850MB TEMPS MODERATING A BIT THE SOUTH COULD MANAGE
TO REACH THE 40S.



.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL QUITE A SPREAD AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND
MOST PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER BUT ALSO
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE. THE GEM IS IN BETWEEN...WHILE THE NAM IS THE
SLOWEST AND HAS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP CAMP OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR QUITE A LONG TIME. THE NAM SEEMS OVERDONE AS
FAR AS SNOW...SO LEANED TOWARDS A GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION. THERE SHOULD
BE SOME PRECIP STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A NORTHERN BRANCH DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO
APPROACH. AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM WESTERN SD TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY...AND SOME RAIN MAY
MIX IN WITH THE SOUTH WHICH WILL AFFECT ACCUMULATIONS. FOR NOW
BROAD BRUSHED THE AREA WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...BUT
FULLY EXPECT THIS WILL CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID APRIL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT...BUT 500 HPA HEIGHTS BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS ARE MESSY
WITH THE DETAILS. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW WILL
WOBBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY/FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
POSSIBLE SHORT-WAVE FOR SATURDAY AND THEN BUILDING RIDGE TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS PATTERN...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION BEING SATURDAY WHEN THERE IS A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ALTHOUGH ONLY THE ECMWF DEVELOPS QPF
WHEREAS THE GFS IS DRY. FOR THE MOST PART...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY
THURSDAY (HIGHS IN THE 30S) WITH A GRADUAL WARM-UP FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH CIGS COULD DEVELOP AROUND
4000 FT MONDAY FOR MOST AREAS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND INCREASE A BIT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD SURGE AND
DECENT MIXING...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25KT. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
MONDAY EVENING AS SKIES CLEAR WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
SPRING SNOW MELT RUNOFF CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE RED RIVER OF THE
NORTH BASIN WITH MODERATE FLOODING AT HALLOCK AND OSLO AND MINOR
FLOODING AT ROSEAU...ALVARADO AND ON THE RED AT GRAND FORKS...
DRAYTON AND LATER THIS WEEK PEMBINA.

THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK HAS RISEN TO MODERATE LEVELS AND
CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED BY ICE. ADDITIONAL RISES OF A HALF OF A
FOOT OR SO ARE EXPECTED. AT ALVARADO RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE
AND ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. AT ROSEAU THE
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES TO RECEDE. RIVER LEVELS AT ABOVE WARREN HAD
RISEN TO NEAR (INCONSEQUENTIAL) FLOOD STAGE LAST EVENING...BUT HAVE
SINCE DROPPED BACK BELOW 67.0 FEET. CALLED OFFICIALS TO INVESTIGATE
AND THEY FOUND NOTHING UNTOWARD. WIRE WEIGHT DATA STILL BEING
RECEIVED FOR ROSEAU RIVER AND THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/ROGERS
AVIATION...DK
HYDROLOGY...ROGERS/WJB







000
FXUS63 KBIS 140533
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1233 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD ENTERED NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST...AND SAT PICS SHOWING AREA
OF CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH AND EAST AS PER THE SHORT RANGE MODELS.
INCREASED THE AREA OF MENTION FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT
OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS (INCREASING IN THE VICINITY OF
CLOUDS/SNOW)...BUT NO BIG CHANGE FOR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE HAS NOW ENTERED NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THE KGGW WSR-88D IS DETECTING ELEVATED
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY APPROACHING THE ND/MT BORDER. HOWEVER...THE
00Z KGGW SOUNDING OBSERVED A VERY DRY LAYER EXTENDING FROM THE
SURFACE TO 700MB. THESE ELEVATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AS NONE OF THE MONTANA SURFACE
OBS HAVE REPORTED PRECIP THIS EVENING.

STILL INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS OVER
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AS THE DRY
LAYER WILL LIKELY WET BULB TO NEAR SATURATION AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STILL THINK
ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...IF ANY ACCUMULATION AT
ALL.

THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE FRESHENED
UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ROTATING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. IT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
OVER NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.

ONLY UPDATED THE FORECAST TO DELAY THE ONSET OF SNOW SHOWER
CHANCES NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL BY A FEW HOURS AS THE
SHORTWAVE HAS NOT EVEN ENTERED THE STATE YET. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE TEENS. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...MOST FAVORED
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...IF ANY. LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER CHILLY DAY ON
MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S EAST AND CENTRAL...AND
AROUND 40 DEGREES WEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING EAST AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL ND AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
OVER MY NORTH NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AS AN EMBEDDED S/WV MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER WAVE
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. BOTH FEATURES WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DAYTIME AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SD/NB. WAA STILL DEPICTED TO BE CONFINED TO
MY SOUTHWEST TUESDAY WHILE COLDER AIR IS MAINTAINED NORTH AND
EAST RESULTING IN A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. MODELS AGAIN A BIT DIFFERENT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO REGARDING MOISTURE...CUTTING QPF IN HALF BUT STILL WOULD
GENERATE MAINLY SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO AS 1-3 INCHES REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AFTERWARDS BUT DOES APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY DRY ALONG WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WITH -SN OVER KISN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE/EXPAND
SOUTH AND EAST OVER TAF SITES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. CIGS
BECOMING VFR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...BEGINNING AROUND 11Z AT
KISN TO AROUND 18Z AT KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 140444
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A COLD NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOME WITH VERY DRY SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 10
ADVECTING INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY. IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT...WITH SOME CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES BRUSHING THE WEST LATE. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE REGION AND WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DECREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE DEGREE OF CLEARING TONIGHT AND HOW
MUCH TEMPS CAN FALL WITH STEADY WINDS. STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL TUE NIGHT/WED SYSTEM. AS FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THERE WAS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE
FA BUT NOT MUCH UPSTREAM WHERE THERE IS STILL SNOW. CUMULUS SHOULD
FADE AWAY THIS EVENING BUT WINDS WILL STAY PRETTY STEADY. THE
REGION REMAINS IN A 500MB TROUGH WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN WITH THIS
AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE AT THIS POINT. WOULD NOT BE MUCH IF IT
DOES OCCUR BUT THERE IS SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED
IN SASKATCHEWAN RIGHT NOW. SHOULD SEE SOME CLOUD COVER LINGERING
WITH THIS SYSTEM ON MON MORNING WITH SOME SUN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPS AGAIN LOOK PRETTY CHILLY. SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE BUT CONTINUED COLD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DAY 3 WPC SNOWFALL MAP SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST WITH THE ONSET OF ANY PCPN MAKING
TIMING THE EVENT PARTICULARLY DIFFICULT. FOR NOW WILL STICK IN THE
CHANCE RANGE FOR PCPN CHANCES AND SEE IF LATER RUNS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE LEVEL...MAINLY WITH
TEMPERATURES. GFS SHARPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL
US THEN DEVELOPING AN UPPER LOW WHICH HOLDS OVER THE FA UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF HOLDS TROUGH/UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH WITH THE
GEM SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN. WITH THE GFS SOLUTION COLUMN COLDER WITH
UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL TURNS OUT WILL SEE
SOME DEGREE OF SUB AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MODERATING CLOSER TO
AVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERALL PCPN LOOKS MINIMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCES POSSIBLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH CIGS COULD DEVELOP AROUND
4000 FT MONDAY FOR MOST AREAS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND INCREASE A BIT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD SURGE AND
DECENT MIXING...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25KT. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
MONDAY EVENING AS SKIES CLEAR WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

SPRING SNOW MELT RUNOFF CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE RED RIVER OF THE
NORTH BASIN WITH MODERATE FLOODING AT HALLOCK AND OSLO AND MINOR
FLOODING AT ROSEAU...ALVARADO AND ON THE RED AT GRAND
FORKS...DRAYTON AND LATER THIS WEEK PEMBINA.

THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK HAS RISEN TO MODERATE LEVELS AND
CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED BY ICE. ADDITIONAL RISES OF A HALF OF A
FOOT OR SO ARE EXPECTED. AT ALVARADO RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE
AND ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.  AT ROSEAU AND
DILWORTH THE MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES TO RECEDE. RIVER LEVELS AT
ABOVE WARREN HAVE RISEN TO NEAR (INCONSEQUENTIAL) FLOOD STAGE.
CALLED OFFICIALS TO INVESTIGATE AND THEY FOUND NOTHING UNTOWARD.
BELIEVE WE WILL HAVE SOME WIRE WEIGHT DATA IN THE MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK
HYDROLOGY...WJB







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