Latest:
 AFDBIS |  AFDFGF |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KBIS 270725
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
225 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Morning fog, possibly dense, and the redevelopment of showers and
some thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening highlight the short
term.

For the near term period now through mid morning, areas of fog,
possibly dense, will be monitored for portions of western and south
central North Dakota. This is associated with a clear/dry slot and
calm surface winds. The latest HRRR shows fog, and an elevated stratus
layer above the surface. This may be a combination of low clouds
along with patchy dense fog. This is expected to dwindle by 15z.

Mid to upper level closed low per water vapor imagery seen
circulating over the Turtle Mountains slowly opens up today and
meanders into southern Manitoba this afternoon. Theme from the
past several days with cyclonic flow and cold pool of air aloft
with instability being maximized in the afternoon and early
evening will continue today. However, cape and shear are both
weaker this afternoon as compared to Thursday. Expect the sky to
once again cloud up with daytime heating with an increasing cumulus
field. The highest pops will reside in the north closer to the
700mb upper low, with decreasing chances south. No severe weather
anticipated given the environmental conditions mentioned above.
The showers and thunderstorms will diminish with sunset this
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The overall message of chances for showers and thunderstorms
remains unchanged. However, confidence for the most widespread
event and potentially severe event is Monday afternoon west, then
transitioning into central North Dakota Monday night into Tuesday.
The driest days appear to be Sunday and Thursday.

Timing of shortwaves and associated showers and thunderstorms
prior to Monday per GFS and ECMWF suggest that a mid level
shortwave will shift from eastern Montana into western and central
ND Saturday evening and night. Thunderstorms that develop Saturday
afternoon west will propagate into central North Dakota Saturday
night while weakening with time. This shortwave exits Sunday
morning, with a mid level transitory ridge amplifying over
central ND for a mainly dry day Sunday into Monday morning.

A closed mid and upper level low approach Monday and slowly moves
east across western and central ND Tuesday through Wednesday.
Severe potential ahead of the system Monday afternoon through
Tuesday morning as mentioned above. This is followed by a dry
slot, then cooler air with rain showers on the back side of the
system Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Patchy fog, possibly dense, along with IFR/LIFR cigs between 11z
and 14z Friday may occur at KDIK and KBIS. KISN and KMOT will be
meandering between mvfr and low vfr cigs through the TAF period.
The remaining terminals will experience vfr cigs, however bkn
conditions between 5kft to 6kft can be expected. A vcsh will be
carried at Minot through 14z Friday, and then again 18z Friday
until 00z Saturday. a VCSH has been carried at KBIS Friday afternoon.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 270515 CCA
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1215 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Quick update to mention some fog potential in the dry slot from
southwest through south central per latest HRRR and RAP.

Latest local and regional radar along with water vapor imagery
show the closed upper low now over the Turtle Mountains.
Rainshowers advancing southwest around the low from Manitoba and
Saskatchewan into northern North Dakota. Another line of showers
and isolated thunderstorms that formed along an outflow boundary
now into the southern James River Valley moving northeast with
time. Showers expected north central rest of tonight and have
followed the HRRR with likely to scattered rainshowers. Central
and southern generally dry rest of tonight. Forecast remains on
track with remnants of the mid level low still maintaining a
presence Friday with the sky clouding back up with daytime heating
followed by isolated to scattered showers.

UPDATE Issued at 919 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

latest trends have the showers/isolated thunderstorms across the
north greatly diminishing as the convergence zones from
thunderstorm outflows diminish and the sun sets. New band of
showers and thunderstorms forming across the southeast. Expect
these to remain non-severe and track slowly east for the remainder
of the evening.

UPDATE Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

At 630 pm CDT a line of thunderstorms extended E-W from near
Williston east to 10 miles south of Minot moving north about 10
miles an hour. Storms have been getting slowly stronger late this
afternoon. Main threats are hail and the occasional funnel cloud
as the non supercell parameter is high. Focused highest pops
along highway 2 corridor this evening between Williston and
Rugby. Expect the storms to rapidly diminish after 9 pm CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Current surface analysis places low over southeastern Manitoba,
with trough dropping back to the west/southwest. Slow moving upper
low continues to loiter over far west-central into northwest North
Dakota. Scattered showers/thunderstorms continue to develop in
strong cyclonic flow around upper low in vicinity aforementioned
surface trough.

For the remainder of this afternoon into tonight, showers/storms
will continue to develop around aforementioned upper low. Many
reports of small hail have come which seem reasonable given the
cooler temperatures aloft in the vicinity of the surface low
combined with modest instability. With that said, with minimal
deep layer shear available expect the severe threat to remain low
and if one did become strong would expect it to be short lived.
Coverage should gradually dissipate this evening with the loss of
daytime heating.

On Friday, upper low gradually lifts towards the northeast
bringing another round of shower and thunderstorm chances,
particularly over the northern and eastern locations in areas of
greatest cyclonic flow.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Active southwesterly flow will continue over the Northern Plains
through the first part of next week, bringing daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms along with near to slightly above
average temperatures. Models are in agreement on sliding a broad
upper low over the area towards the middle of next week, which
would bring greater chances for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

KISN and KMOT will be meandering between mvfr and low vfr cigs
through the TAF period. The remaining terminals will experience
vfr cigs, however bkn conditions at around 5kft to 6kft can be
expected. A vcsh will be carried at Minot through 14z Friday, and
then again 18z Friday until 00z Saturday. Vcfg was added to KBIS
early in the TAF period, with a vcsh Friday afternoon.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 270448
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1148 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Latest local and regional radar along with water vapor imagery
show the closed upper low now over the Turtle Mountains.
Rainshowers advancing southwest around the low from Manitoba and
Saskatchewan into northern North Dakota. Another line of showers
and isolated thunderstorms that formed along an outflow boundary
now into the southern James River Valley moving northeast with
time. Showers expected north central rest of tonight and have
followed the HRRR with likely to scattered rainshowers. Central
and southern generally dry rest of tonight. Forecast remains on
track with remnants of the mid level low still maintaining a
presence Friday with the sky clouding back up with daytime heating
followed by isolated to scattered showers.

UPDATE Issued at 919 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

latest trends have the showers/isolated thunderstorms across the
north greatly diminishing as the convergence zones from
thunderstorm outflows diminish and the sun sets. New band of
showers and thunderstorms forming across the southeast. Expect
these to remain non-severe and track slowly east for the remainder
of the evening.

UPDATE Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

At 630 pm CDT a line of thunderstorms extended E-W from near
Williston east to 10 miles south of Minot moving north about 10
miles an hour. Storms have been getting slowly stronger late this
afternoon. Main threats are hail and the occasional funnel cloud
as the non supercell parameter is high. Focused highest pops
along highway 2 corridor this evening between Williston and
Rugby. Expect the storms to rapidly diminish after 9 pm CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Current surface analysis places low over southeastern Manitoba,
with trough dropping back to the west/southwest. Slow moving upper
low continues to loiter over far west-central into northwest North
Dakota. Scattered showers/thunderstorms continue to develop in
strong cyclonic flow around upper low in vicinity aforementioned
surface trough.

For the remainder of this afternoon into tonight, showers/storms
will continue to develop around aforementioned upper low. Many
reports of small hail have come which seem reasonable given the
cooler temperatures aloft in the vicinity of the surface low
combined with modest instability. With that said, with minimal
deep layer shear available expect the severe threat to remain low
and if one did become strong would expect it to be short lived.
Coverage should gradually dissipate this evening with the loss of
daytime heating.

On Friday, upper low gradually lifts towards the northeast
bringing another round of shower and thunderstorm chances,
particularly over the northern and eastern locations in areas of
greatest cyclonic flow.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Active southwesterly flow will continue over the Northern Plains
through the first part of next week, bringing daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms along with near to slightly above
average temperatures. Models are in agreement on sliding a broad
upper low over the area towards the middle of next week, which
would bring greater chances for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

KISN and KMOT will be meandering between mvfr and low vfr cigs
through the TAF period. The remaining terminals will experience
vfr cigs, however bkn conditions at around 5kft to 6kft can be
expected. A vcsh will be carried at Minot through 14z Friday, and
then again 18z Friday until 00z Saturday. A vcsh was added to the
KBIS taf for Friday afternoon.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KFGF 262000
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
300 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

A weak sfc low over SE MB is resulting in weak cyclonic sfc flow
in the northeast. Most cloud cover across the northern half of the
CWA is becoming more cellular and may see some clearing by late
tonight. This afternoon, southeastern ND has been clear for
majority of day and full solar should increase thorugh the
afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis indicating a band of 500 to 1000 J/KG
mean layer CAPE along clear line with cu field to the north,
extending into Valley City area. Expect that to extend into
southeastern ND through the afternoon and will be best chance for
convective activity late afternoon into the evening. Will keep
some low POPs across north in cycloic flow associated with SFC low
in SE MB, but majority of FA north of I-94 expected to be dry
overnight. Will keep low POPs in NW zones as upper low moves
across n central ND, but without decent heating today threat is
minimal.

For Friday...chances for precipitation increase tomorrow
afternoon as a vort max embedded in SW flow pattern aloft lifts
out of eastern SD during the mid aftn and into w central MN during
the early evening. Best chances for convection will be eastern CWA
in the evening hours, per preferred GFS although QPF maxima is
overly bullish.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Saturday and Sunday...Ridging from high pressure over norther
Sask/MB begins working its way into ND on Saturday, with northerly
SFC flow west of the valley. Will begin lowering pops for DVL
basin, trending toward dry from 06Z Sunday and through the day
Sunday. NAM continues to have SCT activity across the CWA on Sat
and confidence in NAM is low at this point, preferring the drier
GFS.

For Sunday night through Thursday...Still looking like a split flow
regime near the start of the long term. As the west coast ridge
builds, a low forms over Montana. This low will slowly track east
through the remainder of the long term period, or right through this
FA. Looking at the 12z model runs, the ECMWF remains faster than the
GFS in this eastward progression. What this means is that Sunday
night and Monday should mainly be dry, while Tuesday through
Thursday will see fairly decent chances for rain. Correspondingly,
Monday also looks to be the warmest day. With more clouds and rain,
Tuesday through Thursday cool down closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Ceilings that were MVFR or lower this morning have quickly increased
early this afternoon. Most locations are or will rise shortly into
the VFR range. Could even be SCT at times, but most locations will
stay BKN. A lot of the clouds are diurnal in nature, so they should
decrease in coverage this evening with winds also becoming light.
There may be a few showers around this afternoon, mainly around
KDVL, so have included a VCSH there. Otherwise will have to see how
extensive the showers become and adjust as needed. Models also show
some pcpn moving up toward KFAR later tonight or Friday morning.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...Godon/Speicher
AVIATION...Speicher




000
FXUS63 KFGF 261135
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
635 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

With showers diminishing over the northeastern counties lowered
POPs a bit in those areas for the rest of the morning. A few spots
are still 2SM in visibility so kept a patchy fog mention for just
a bit longer but it should be gone soon as west winds move into
the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

The timing of precipitation continues to be the main headache for
the period.

The main upper low continues to spin near the Montana/North Dakota
border, with one lead shortwave currently moving through the CWA
and setting off storms in our eastern counties. That shortwave
will quickly move off to the northeast this morning, and with the
main surface low over southern Canada, think that it will be a bit
quieter today with only a few showers near the international
border. Clouds and precip will keep highs in the north near 70
while the southern counties will see readings again near 80. By
this evening however, the main upper low will be coming east, and
models have some precip developing in central ND and moving into
our western counties. Bumped up POPs in that area for the evening
but think that after midnight the better precip chances will be
further south over ABR/MPX`s areas with the low level jet. With
clouds lows should stay in the 50s.

Friday, the main upper low will still be wobbling over the
Northern Plains with an inverted surface trough over the eastern
CWA. Models bring a decent vort up into our eastern counties so
have some fairly high POPs going during the day, although exact
timing is a bit uncertain still. Highs Friday should stay in the
upper 60s to mid 70s with precip at times across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Friday night through Saturday night...The models start to diverge
on the exact timing of weak shortwaves coming through the
southwesterly flow aloft, which is to be expected with these type
of features. For now just broadbrushed some high chance POPs.
Clouds and precip will keep lows in the 50s and highs in the low
to mid 70s for Saturday.

Sunday through Wednesday...Split flow remains over North America
with northern stream over Canada and southern stream over the
States. Long wave pattern transitions from a relatively high
amplitude to a zonal flow by the end of the period.

The ECMWF was a faster solution than the GFS. The two models were out
of phase after Sun. The GFS was trending slower while the GFS was
oscillating around. Will prefer the ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Stratus of IFR to low MVFR cigs continues across all but KFAR this
morning, but should eventually lift up to the north as the surface
low moves into Canada. Conditions should improve to low VFR by mid
morning and then think the deck should scatter out by this
afternoon. Winds will be from the west to southwest at around 10
to 15 kts. Tonight have winds becoming light and variable. Some
patchy fog formation will again be possible but not confident to
include at any one TAF site at this point. Some MVFR cigs will
begin to move back into the KDVL area by the end of the period.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/Hoppes
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KBIS 261129
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
629 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Overall the forecast is on track and blended to observed trends
through 11 UTC. Issued an SPS for dense fog across northwest North
Dakota this morning. With the sun already risen, visibility
should begin to improve for this areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Early this morning an upper level low continued to spin across
northeast Montana as a surface low and trough were centered
across the North Dakota/Canadian border. Along and north of the
trough light showers continued. Just behind the trough low stratus
and fog have developed. The HRRR indicates this fog and stratus
will continue this morning and scatter out by the afternoon. As
the upper level low begins pushing eastward today additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across western
North Dakota and spread eastward. Instability is forecast to be
much less than what we experienced on Wednesday. However, steep
lapse rates and moderate forcing could generate some stronger
thunderstorms this afternoon. No severe storms are anticipated,
but some small hail and gusty winds can`t be ruled out across
central North Dakota.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Southwesterly flow will continue across the Northern Plains through
early next week. This will bring a daily chance for showers and
thunderstorms. A closed low is forecast to park right over North
Dakota by the middle of next week. This again will bring good
chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Models are
having a hard time resolving individual waves, so specific timing
of thunderstorms remains challenging.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

IFR/LIFR conditions in fog and stratus at KISN/KMOT/KJMS to begin
the 12Z TAF cycle will improve to VFR by mid to late this
morning. Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms will develop once
again across western and central North Dakota with daytime
heating. Scattered MVFR stratus decks are possible late tonight
across the area.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KFGF 260006
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
706 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 701 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

2330z obs indicate sfc low just south of grand forks. HRRR model
moves this low north this evening and toward the Langdon/Cavalier
area by 12Z Thu. Main rain area north of this low has shifted into
Manitoba with lingering rain along the Canadian border Pembina
east to Baudette. Otherwise dry south of there. So did tweek pops
for this faster rain ending and break in precipitation currently.
Line of storms in central ND moving east but HRRR indicates storms
breaking up some as they move east toward eastern ND overnight but
still enough of a risk for a few showers or isold storm to
continue low chc pops. Will continue to tweek pops and sky as
needed this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Main forecast challenge will be focusing on convective potential
thru this evening. As of mid afternoon, a surface low was located
over far southeast ND, surrounded by 60 dew points. Water vapor
imagery showed a nice short wave lifting northward through the
central Red River Valley. SPC meso page showed little or no bulk
shear in that area and relatively weak CAPE due to the lack of
heating today. However the non supercell tornado product
highlighted the area right around the sfc low, meaning if some of
the cells down there could take off they could produce some weak
funnels. However it seems like the stronger cells are a little
further south. They seem to be along a warm front, which extends
from the sfc low, down toward KAXN. This area managed to get some
temperatures up around 80 today and therefore a little more CAPE.
However these cells are moving NE and away from the richer CAPE.

A third area of development is back west of KBIS. There is some
sfc convergence there, with weak CAPE and a little better shear.
Most of the high resolution short term guidance shows the tstms
out over the FA now continuing to lift NE and staying on the weak
side. The storms back west of KBIS try to move eastward tonight
but should also weaken with loss of heating. Therefore with time
tonight most of the pcpn should move into southern Canada with the
echoes out by KBIS moving into the FA by early evening. Marginal
risk area is out of the FA on Day 2...with synoptic scale models
showing most of the FA staying dry. Areas along the Canadian
border may still see a little pcpn.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Looking ahead into Friday and Saturday, blocking to the east will
result in either SW flow or a southerly flow. This will keep some
pcpn chances in the area, mainly during peak heating hours. Hard
to nail things down much more than that.

For Sat Night through Wed...An upper low will be departing the
area early over the weekend, making showers and/or thunderstorms
likely in the far east Saturday night. Models showing a short wave
ridge move through Sun into Mon and we should see a break in
activity but zonal flow will keep a series of weak waves coming
across the Northern Tier, so low POPs will be throughout the Sun-
Mon timeframe. SW flow aloft returns by Tuesday, with low pressure
over western ND brining increased chances of convection for the
middle portion of the week. Overall an active period will continue
through the long term, however temps will drop back into the low
70s mid next week after a warm Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 701 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Variety of conditions likely. Surface low south of Grand Forks
with a more west wind at Fargo while east-northeast elsewhere.
Surface low to move north tonight as winds eventually turn
northwest or west in GFK and DVL and more southerly at TVF and
BJI. Then winds more westerly at all areas daytime Thursday. Cloud
ceilings variable but mostly mvfr into Thursday DVL, GFK, BJI and
TVF and flirting with VFR or MVFR at FAR once clouds return from
the west. IFR cigs psbl at DVL and BJI late tonight.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Speicher
AVIATION...Riddle




000
FXUS63 KFGF 251735
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1235 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Rain area has filled in across most of the FA. Only spots not
seeing rain at the moment are from KCKN to KBJI and across the far
south. Most areas will now see a steady 0.25 or so of rain thru
the afternoon. Lots of cloud cover over northeast SD, so at this
point not expecting too much additional pcpn development later
this afternoon. Some of the high resolution models show some weak
development around and south of KBIS, which tries to move east
early this evening. Will look more at with the next forecast
update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Water vapor loop indicated a trough from eastern WY into eastern CO
and was moving to the northeast about 40 knots. Some
drying/darkening was noted over eastern WY/eastern CO. Short wave
ridging east of trough was returning moisture northward. Band of
precipitable water over an inch and a quarter forecast to rotate
northward through the forecast area through 00z Thu.

Coupled upper level jet was over the area with jet over southern
Canada and a southwesterly jet nosing into southeast ND by 18z Wed.
Coupled area shifts into Ontario this evening with respectable upper
level divergence. Precip basically falls under the 700 hpa theta-e
ridge. Water column then dries out tonight and Thu. Precipitable
water increases again for Fri/Fri night as upper low off the
southern CA coast moves out into the plains of NE. Concurrently an
upper trough over western MT will move into northern ND/southern MAN
Fri/Fri night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Saturday through Tuesday...The wet pattern will continue with
several troughs moving through the Northern Plains. The first will
lift from the Central Plains into Minnesota on Saturday, and another
large trough coming in from the Rockies on Tuesday. In between, west
to southwesterly flow will prevail over the Northern Plains and any
of the weak embedded shortwaves could bring some precip. Blended
solution gives fairly high POPs throughout the period, with some
slight decrease down to 15ish percent Sunday night and Monday at the
driest. Given the pattern see little reason to change that wet
solution at this point. Temperatures will continue to be mostly
above seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

MVFR cigs will accompany thunderstorms and, later in the day, light
rain showers, as a wave of showers and storms works its way from
south to north across the region.  Areas behind the precipitation
may continue to see some very light rain and cigs dropping into MVFR
tonight, but unless breaks in the sky occur before sun down, the
threat for TS is diminishing for the overnight period. Will keep
mention of CB in most sites through 02Z.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Hoppes
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Speicher




000
FXUS63 KFGF 251447
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
947 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Seeing quite a bit of shower and tstm activity across the FA this
morning, but the most extends along a line from KJMS to KAXN.
Seeing some cyclonic curl in this line, so its forward speed is
not all that quick. Ahead of this line some other clusters of
pcpn have developed too. One cluster is northwest of KBJI and
another is around KDVL. Models show the main line from KJMS to
KAXN lifting northward through the FA today, giving a wide 0.25 to
0.50 inch rainfall to most areas. After this line moves through,
will have to see how much clearing occurs. Will need to have some
clearing and heating to get additional tstm development this
afternoon. Best bet for any clearing at this point looks to be
across the southern FA. SPC has removed the slight risk area but a
marginal risk still exists across the southern third of the FA.
This matches well with the area that stands the best chance of
seeing sun later, but lots of ifs yet. Will continue to monitor
through the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Water vapor loop indicated a trough from eastern WY into eastern CO
and was moving to the northeast about 40 knots. Some
drying/darkening was noted over eastern WY/eastern CO. Short wave
ridging east of trough was returning moisture northward. Band of
precipitable water over an inch and a quarter forecast to rotate
northward through the forecast area through 00z Thu.

Coupled upper level jet was over the area with jet over southern
Canada and a southwesterly jet nosing into southeast ND by 18z Wed.
Coupled area shifts into Ontario this evening with respectable upper
level divergence. Precip basically falls under the 700 hpa theta-e
ridge. Water column then dries out tonight and Thu. Precipitable
water increases again for Fri/Fri night as upper low off the
southern CA coast moves out into the plains of NE. Concurrently an
upper trough over western MT will move into northern ND/southern MAN
Fri/Fri night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Saturday through Tuesday...The wet pattern will continue with
several troughs moving through the Northern Plains. The first will
lift from the Central Plains into Minnesota on Saturday, and another
large trough coming in from the Rockies on Tuesday. In between, west
to southwesterly flow will prevail over the Northern Plains and any
of the weak embedded shortwaves could bring some precip. Blended
solution gives fairly high POPs throughout the period, with some
slight decrease down to 15ish percent Sunday night and Monday at the
driest. Given the pattern see little reason to change that wet
solution at this point. Temperatures will continue to be mostly
above seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 659 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

IFR cigs have moved westward into the far eastern zones. Otherwise
the rest of the area was VFR. Expect mostly VFR conditions for today
except near storms.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Hoppes
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Hoppes




000
FXUS63 KFGF 251159
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
659 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 659 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Precip breaking up as it moves north. Updated the pops for current
radar trends. Otherwise no other changes at this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Water vapor loop indicated a trough from eastern WY into eastern CO
and was moving to the northeast about 40 knots. Some
drying/darkening was noted over eastern WY/eastern CO. Short wave
ridging east of trough was returning moisture northward. Band of
precipitable water over an inch and a quarter forecast to rotate
northward through the forecast area through 00z Thu.

Coupled upper level jet was over the area with jet over southern
Canada and a southwesterly jet nosing into southeast ND by 18z Wed.
Coupled area shifts into Ontario this evening with respectable upper
level divergence. Precip basically falls under the 700 hpa theta-e
ridge. Water column then dries out tonight and Thu. Precipitable
water increases again for Fri/Fri night as upper low off the
southern CA coast moves out into the plains of NE. Concurrently an
upper trough over western MT will move into northern ND/southern MAN
Fri/Fri night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Saturday through Tuesday...The wet pattern will continue with
several troughs moving through the Northern Plains. The first will
lift from the Central Plains into Minnesota on Saturday, and another
large trough coming in from the Rockies on Tuesday. In between, west
to southwesterly flow will prevail over the Northern Plains and any
of the weak embedded shortwaves could bring some precip. Blended
solution gives fairly high POPs throughout the period, with some
slight decrease down to 15ish percent Sunday night and Monday at the
driest. Given the pattern see little reason to change that wet
solution at this point. Temperatures will continue to be mostly
above seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 659 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

IFR cigs have moved westward into the far eastern zones. Otherwise
the rest of the area was VFR. Expect mostly VFR conditions for today
except near storms.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hoppes
SHORT TERM...Hoppes
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Hoppes




000
FXUS63 KBIS 251135
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
635 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Overall, forecast expectations remain unchanged for this morning
through this evening, and well supported by the 06-10 UTC guidance
suites. The ongoing forecast was blended to observed trends
through 11 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Convective potential south central and the James River Valley this
afternoon and evening, and rainfall around one inch today
northwest and far north central highlight the short term
forecast.

Low pressure across southeast South Dakota as of 09 UTC this
morning is forecast to propagate into southeast North Dakota late
this afternoon. Low level moisture transport along and east of an
inverted trough extending into north central North Dakota is
forecast to yield surface dew points in the mid to upper 50s F
this afternoon. The main question is how much instability can
build across the south central and James River Valley given cloud
cover. The 06 UTC NAM and 08 UTC RAP suggest some thinning in
cloud cover this afternoon, however a large spread in possible ML
CAPE values is present amongst the guidance, representing a
conditional severe threat highly dependent on how much clouds can
thin. SPC has maintained a marginal risk for severe storms across
these areas in their Day 1 Convective Outlook.

Across northwest and far north central North Dakota a deformation
zone is forecast to establish itself this morning and into the
afternoon northwest of the aforementioned surface low. Around one
inch of rainfall is possible for these areas today, locally higher
with embedded thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

An active weather pattern with daily chances for thunderstorms
highlights the extended forecast.

The 00 UTC global suites are in agreement on a mean longwave
intermountain west trough through the extended forecast period.
Downstream across the Northern Plains, favorable southwest flow
aloft supports a daily threat for thunderstorms Thursday through
early next week. At this time, no specific period stand outs with
a significant severe thunderstorm threat, however, the threat is
also non-zero for this synoptic setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
across western and central North Dakota throughout the 12 UTC TAF
period. Ceilings may fall to MVFR at KISN/KDIK/KMOT this morning,
possibly remaining into the afternoon. KDIK is expected to return
to VFR Wednesday evening. However, KMOT/KISN may fall to IFR after
sunset. Regarding KJMS, amendments are not scheduled due to
communication issues with the ASOS.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

PJA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 250914
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
414 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Convective potential south central and the James River Valley this
afternoon and evening, and rainfall around one inch today
northwest and far north central highlight the short term
forecast.

Low pressure across southeast South Dakota as of 09 UTC this
morning is forecast to propagate into southeast North Dakota late
this afternoon. Low level moisture transport along and east of an
inverted trough extending into north central North Dakota is
forecast to yield surface dew points in the mid to upper 50s F
this afternoon. The main question is how much instability can
build across the south central and James River Valley given cloud
cover. The 06 UTC NAM and 08 UTC RAP suggest some thinning in
cloud cover this afternoon, however a large spread in possible ML
CAPE values is present amongst the guidance, representing a
conditional severe threat highly dependent on how much clouds can
thin. SPC has maintained a marginal risk for severe storms across
these areas in their Day 1 Convective Outlook.

Across northwest and far north central North Dakota a deformation
zone is forecast to establish itself this morning and into the
afternoon northwest of the aforementioned surface low. Around one
inch of rainfall is possible for these areas today, locally higher
with embedded thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

An active weather pattern with daily chances for thunderstorms
highlights the extended forecast.

The 00 UTC global suites are in agreement on a mean longwave
intermountain west trough through the extended forecast period.
Downstream across the Northern Plains, favorable southwest flow
aloft supports a daily threat for thunderstorms Thursday through
early next week. At this time, no specific period stand outs with
a significant severe thunderstorm threat, however, the threat is
also non-zero for this synoptic setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
across western and central North Dakota throughout the 06 UTC TAF
period. Ceilings may fall to MVFR at KISN/KDIK/KMOT this morning,
possibly remaining into the afternoon. KDIK is expected to return
to VFR Wednesday evening. However, KMOT/KISN may fall to IFR after
sunset. Regarding KJMS, amendments are not scheduled due to
communication issues with the ASOS.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KFGF 250848
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
348 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Water vapor loop indicated a trough from eastern WY into eastern CO
and was moving to the northeast about 40 knots. Some
drying/darkening was noted over eastern WY/eastern CO. Short wave
ridging east of trough was returning moisture northward. Band of
precipitable water over an inch and a quarter forecast to rotate
northward through the forecast area through 00z Thu.

Coupled upper level jet was over the area with jet over southern
Canada and a southwesterly jet nosing into southeast ND by 18z Wed.
Coupled area shifts into Ontario this evening with respectable upper
level divergence. Precip basically falls under the 700 hpa theta-e
ridge. Water column then dries out tonight and Thu. Precipitable
water increases again for Fri/Fri night as upper low off the
southern CA coast moves out into the plains of NE. Concurrently an
upper trough over western MT will move into northern ND/southern MAN
Fri/Fri night.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Saturday through Tuesday...The wet pattern will continue with
several troughs moving through the Northern Plains. The first will
lift from the Central Plains into Minnesota on Saturday, and another
large trough coming in from the Rockies on Tuesday. In between, west
to southwesterly flow will prevail over the Northern Plains and any
of the weak embedded shortwaves could bring some precip. Blended
solution gives fairly high POPs throughout the period, with some
slight decrease down to 15ish percent Sunday night and Monday at the
driest. Given the pattern see little reason to change that wet
solution at this point. Temperatures will continue to be mostly
above seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Rain showers and thunderstorms should lift out of S Dakota and
into southeastern N Dakota during the mid morning hours Wednesday.
Activity will continue through most of the day, however outside of
TSRA on state conditions expected to be VFR until after 00Z
Thursday. Strongest storms will be in the afternoon hours and
across the southern valley.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hoppes
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Speicher




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities