Latest:
 AFDBIS |  AFDFGF |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KFGF 301431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
931 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ESE ACROSS FA TODAY.
ASSOCIATED BAND OF SPOTTY SHRA FOCUSED IN ZONE OF 850MB
FRONTOGENESIS/WARM ADVECTION. WITH CIGS MAINLY FROM 6-8K FT MOST
RETURNS LIKELY VIRGA/SPRINKLES. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOME RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN CWA BUT
NOTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND SO FAR. THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY
GET SOME RAIN AS THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND STRENGTHENS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SO INCREASED CLOUDS FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

PRECIP COMING IN TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP OVER THE REGION...AND WV LOOP
SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT
ALONG WITH THE LOW...AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AT 800MB MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A SHORT TIME IN OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN
WARM AIR UPSTREAM...THINK THAT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY ALTHOUGH A FEW
FLAKES MIXING IN AS THE BAND MOVES IN THIS MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOME OF THE MODEL ARE PUTTING OUT
NEARLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN RECENT PERFORMANCE THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE AND KEPT TOP AMOUNTS JUST OVER A TENTH. THE
PRECIP SHOULD PUSH OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIP AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING OF 30KT 925MB WINDS. DO NOT
THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BUT IT SHOULD BE PRETTY
BREEZY IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TIER. BEHIND THE SFC LOW WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
KEPT HIGHS IN THE WEST IN THE 60S WHILE THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AS VERY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW. MIXING WILL DECREASE AND SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT WITH A PRETTY WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD
WILL KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE WARM TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE 50S TO LOW 60S
WITH NICE MIXING FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AND
MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FURTHER NORTH THAN OUR LAST STRONG TROUGH. Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND THE MODELS HAVE ONLY A TOKEN AMOUNT OF
QPF IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH BUT
WE GET THE DRY SLOT. KEPT ONLY SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND
THINK THAT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE
WILL BE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. 850MB TEMPS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW GET UP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS C...SO TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TOASTY ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A FAIRLY MILD START IN THE 40S THINK WE SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE
60S MOST AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND READINGS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. AS THE
LOW DEPARTS THE AREA...LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY FALL ACROSS
THE NRN PART OF THE AREA. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PCPN ON SATURDAY...AND A SHOT OF REINFORCING COOL AIR FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
THINK THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A BAND OF RAIN
MAY IMPACT KTVF AND KBJI LATER THIS MORNING BUT THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW HEAVY. WILL KEEP VIS ABOVE 6SM AND CIGS ABOVE
3000 FT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 KTS AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 301431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
931 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ESE ACROSS FA TODAY.
ASSOCIATED BAND OF SPOTTY SHRA FOCUSED IN ZONE OF 850MB
FRONTOGENESIS/WARM ADVECTION. WITH CIGS MAINLY FROM 6-8K FT MOST
RETURNS LIKELY VIRGA/SPRINKLES. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOME RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN CWA BUT
NOTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND SO FAR. THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY
GET SOME RAIN AS THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND STRENGTHENS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SO INCREASED CLOUDS FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

PRECIP COMING IN TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP OVER THE REGION...AND WV LOOP
SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT
ALONG WITH THE LOW...AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AT 800MB MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A SHORT TIME IN OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN
WARM AIR UPSTREAM...THINK THAT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY ALTHOUGH A FEW
FLAKES MIXING IN AS THE BAND MOVES IN THIS MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOME OF THE MODEL ARE PUTTING OUT
NEARLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN RECENT PERFORMANCE THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE AND KEPT TOP AMOUNTS JUST OVER A TENTH. THE
PRECIP SHOULD PUSH OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIP AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING OF 30KT 925MB WINDS. DO NOT
THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BUT IT SHOULD BE PRETTY
BREEZY IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TIER. BEHIND THE SFC LOW WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
KEPT HIGHS IN THE WEST IN THE 60S WHILE THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AS VERY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW. MIXING WILL DECREASE AND SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT WITH A PRETTY WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD
WILL KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE WARM TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE 50S TO LOW 60S
WITH NICE MIXING FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AND
MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FURTHER NORTH THAN OUR LAST STRONG TROUGH. Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND THE MODELS HAVE ONLY A TOKEN AMOUNT OF
QPF IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH BUT
WE GET THE DRY SLOT. KEPT ONLY SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND
THINK THAT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE
WILL BE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. 850MB TEMPS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW GET UP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS C...SO TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TOASTY ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A FAIRLY MILD START IN THE 40S THINK WE SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE
60S MOST AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND READINGS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. AS THE
LOW DEPARTS THE AREA...LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY FALL ACROSS
THE NRN PART OF THE AREA. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PCPN ON SATURDAY...AND A SHOT OF REINFORCING COOL AIR FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
THINK THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A BAND OF RAIN
MAY IMPACT KTVF AND KBJI LATER THIS MORNING BUT THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW HEAVY. WILL KEEP VIS ABOVE 6SM AND CIGS ABOVE
3000 FT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 KTS AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 301431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
931 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ESE ACROSS FA TODAY.
ASSOCIATED BAND OF SPOTTY SHRA FOCUSED IN ZONE OF 850MB
FRONTOGENESIS/WARM ADVECTION. WITH CIGS MAINLY FROM 6-8K FT MOST
RETURNS LIKELY VIRGA/SPRINKLES. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOME RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN CWA BUT
NOTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND SO FAR. THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY
GET SOME RAIN AS THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND STRENGTHENS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SO INCREASED CLOUDS FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

PRECIP COMING IN TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP OVER THE REGION...AND WV LOOP
SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT
ALONG WITH THE LOW...AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AT 800MB MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A SHORT TIME IN OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN
WARM AIR UPSTREAM...THINK THAT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY ALTHOUGH A FEW
FLAKES MIXING IN AS THE BAND MOVES IN THIS MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOME OF THE MODEL ARE PUTTING OUT
NEARLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN RECENT PERFORMANCE THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE AND KEPT TOP AMOUNTS JUST OVER A TENTH. THE
PRECIP SHOULD PUSH OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIP AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING OF 30KT 925MB WINDS. DO NOT
THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BUT IT SHOULD BE PRETTY
BREEZY IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TIER. BEHIND THE SFC LOW WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
KEPT HIGHS IN THE WEST IN THE 60S WHILE THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AS VERY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW. MIXING WILL DECREASE AND SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT WITH A PRETTY WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD
WILL KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE WARM TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE 50S TO LOW 60S
WITH NICE MIXING FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AND
MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FURTHER NORTH THAN OUR LAST STRONG TROUGH. Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND THE MODELS HAVE ONLY A TOKEN AMOUNT OF
QPF IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH BUT
WE GET THE DRY SLOT. KEPT ONLY SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND
THINK THAT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE
WILL BE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. 850MB TEMPS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW GET UP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS C...SO TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TOASTY ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A FAIRLY MILD START IN THE 40S THINK WE SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE
60S MOST AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND READINGS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. AS THE
LOW DEPARTS THE AREA...LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY FALL ACROSS
THE NRN PART OF THE AREA. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PCPN ON SATURDAY...AND A SHOT OF REINFORCING COOL AIR FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
THINK THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A BAND OF RAIN
MAY IMPACT KTVF AND KBJI LATER THIS MORNING BUT THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW HEAVY. WILL KEEP VIS ABOVE 6SM AND CIGS ABOVE
3000 FT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 KTS AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 301431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
931 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ESE ACROSS FA TODAY.
ASSOCIATED BAND OF SPOTTY SHRA FOCUSED IN ZONE OF 850MB
FRONTOGENESIS/WARM ADVECTION. WITH CIGS MAINLY FROM 6-8K FT MOST
RETURNS LIKELY VIRGA/SPRINKLES. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOME RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN CWA BUT
NOTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND SO FAR. THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY
GET SOME RAIN AS THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND STRENGTHENS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SO INCREASED CLOUDS FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

PRECIP COMING IN TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP OVER THE REGION...AND WV LOOP
SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT
ALONG WITH THE LOW...AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AT 800MB MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A SHORT TIME IN OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN
WARM AIR UPSTREAM...THINK THAT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY ALTHOUGH A FEW
FLAKES MIXING IN AS THE BAND MOVES IN THIS MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOME OF THE MODEL ARE PUTTING OUT
NEARLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN RECENT PERFORMANCE THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE AND KEPT TOP AMOUNTS JUST OVER A TENTH. THE
PRECIP SHOULD PUSH OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIP AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING OF 30KT 925MB WINDS. DO NOT
THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BUT IT SHOULD BE PRETTY
BREEZY IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TIER. BEHIND THE SFC LOW WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
KEPT HIGHS IN THE WEST IN THE 60S WHILE THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AS VERY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW. MIXING WILL DECREASE AND SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT WITH A PRETTY WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD
WILL KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE WARM TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE 50S TO LOW 60S
WITH NICE MIXING FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AND
MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FURTHER NORTH THAN OUR LAST STRONG TROUGH. Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND THE MODELS HAVE ONLY A TOKEN AMOUNT OF
QPF IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH BUT
WE GET THE DRY SLOT. KEPT ONLY SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND
THINK THAT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE
WILL BE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. 850MB TEMPS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW GET UP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS C...SO TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TOASTY ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A FAIRLY MILD START IN THE 40S THINK WE SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE
60S MOST AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND READINGS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. AS THE
LOW DEPARTS THE AREA...LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY FALL ACROSS
THE NRN PART OF THE AREA. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PCPN ON SATURDAY...AND A SHOT OF REINFORCING COOL AIR FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
THINK THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A BAND OF RAIN
MAY IMPACT KTVF AND KBJI LATER THIS MORNING BUT THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW HEAVY. WILL KEEP VIS ABOVE 6SM AND CIGS ABOVE
3000 FT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 KTS AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 301431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
931 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ESE ACROSS FA TODAY.
ASSOCIATED BAND OF SPOTTY SHRA FOCUSED IN ZONE OF 850MB
FRONTOGENESIS/WARM ADVECTION. WITH CIGS MAINLY FROM 6-8K FT MOST
RETURNS LIKELY VIRGA/SPRINKLES. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOME RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN CWA BUT
NOTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND SO FAR. THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY
GET SOME RAIN AS THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND STRENGTHENS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SO INCREASED CLOUDS FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

PRECIP COMING IN TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP OVER THE REGION...AND WV LOOP
SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT
ALONG WITH THE LOW...AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AT 800MB MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A SHORT TIME IN OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN
WARM AIR UPSTREAM...THINK THAT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY ALTHOUGH A FEW
FLAKES MIXING IN AS THE BAND MOVES IN THIS MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOME OF THE MODEL ARE PUTTING OUT
NEARLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN RECENT PERFORMANCE THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE AND KEPT TOP AMOUNTS JUST OVER A TENTH. THE
PRECIP SHOULD PUSH OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIP AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING OF 30KT 925MB WINDS. DO NOT
THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BUT IT SHOULD BE PRETTY
BREEZY IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TIER. BEHIND THE SFC LOW WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
KEPT HIGHS IN THE WEST IN THE 60S WHILE THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AS VERY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW. MIXING WILL DECREASE AND SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT WITH A PRETTY WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD
WILL KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE WARM TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE 50S TO LOW 60S
WITH NICE MIXING FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AND
MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FURTHER NORTH THAN OUR LAST STRONG TROUGH. Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND THE MODELS HAVE ONLY A TOKEN AMOUNT OF
QPF IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH BUT
WE GET THE DRY SLOT. KEPT ONLY SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND
THINK THAT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE
WILL BE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. 850MB TEMPS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW GET UP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS C...SO TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TOASTY ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A FAIRLY MILD START IN THE 40S THINK WE SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE
60S MOST AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND READINGS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. AS THE
LOW DEPARTS THE AREA...LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY FALL ACROSS
THE NRN PART OF THE AREA. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PCPN ON SATURDAY...AND A SHOT OF REINFORCING COOL AIR FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
THINK THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A BAND OF RAIN
MAY IMPACT KTVF AND KBJI LATER THIS MORNING BUT THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW HEAVY. WILL KEEP VIS ABOVE 6SM AND CIGS ABOVE
3000 FT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 KTS AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KBIS 301354
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
854 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

REMOVED CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS FROM 18 UTC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
ALL MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE WELL EAST OF NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CANADIAN MODELS ALSO SHOW LITTLE TO NO
REFLECTIVITY BEHIND THE RAIN SHOWERS ON THE BORDER. DID BRIEFLY
INCREASE TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN ROLETTE COUNTY AS MINOT
RADAR SUGGEST THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY MAY GET A QUICK
SHOWER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

CLOUDS INFLUENCED BY A 300MB 100KT JET EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE JET. ALSO AN AREA OF JET
STREAM CIRRUS REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN CHANGES
WERE TO ADD CLOUDS FOR THE MORNING SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN ITEMS OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM ARE RAIN CHANCES NORTHEAST
AND BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL LIKELY ENTER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES THIS MORNING.

AS A RESULT OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A STEEPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 35
MPH WILL BE LIKELY.

STRONG WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS AN
H500 RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FAST FLOW
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL SET UP SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AFTER TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

AS STATED TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH HIGHS SHOULD
REACH CLOSE TO 60. MODEL FORECAST CAPE SUGGESTS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ARE EXPECT ED THURSDAY...
WITH A LITTLE MORE MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. GENERALLY SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AT MOST
IS EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. WHILE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL BE BELOW THRESHOLD VALUES. HOWEVER A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. DID NOT ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME WAITING FOR DAY SHIFT TO CONSULT
WITH FIRE MANAGERS AND GET ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING
GRASSLAND CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 301354
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
854 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

REMOVED CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS FROM 18 UTC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
ALL MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE WELL EAST OF NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CANADIAN MODELS ALSO SHOW LITTLE TO NO
REFLECTIVITY BEHIND THE RAIN SHOWERS ON THE BORDER. DID BRIEFLY
INCREASE TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN ROLETTE COUNTY AS MINOT
RADAR SUGGEST THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY MAY GET A QUICK
SHOWER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

CLOUDS INFLUENCED BY A 300MB 100KT JET EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE JET. ALSO AN AREA OF JET
STREAM CIRRUS REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN CHANGES
WERE TO ADD CLOUDS FOR THE MORNING SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN ITEMS OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM ARE RAIN CHANCES NORTHEAST
AND BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL LIKELY ENTER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES THIS MORNING.

AS A RESULT OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A STEEPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 35
MPH WILL BE LIKELY.

STRONG WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS AN
H500 RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FAST FLOW
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL SET UP SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AFTER TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

AS STATED TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH HIGHS SHOULD
REACH CLOSE TO 60. MODEL FORECAST CAPE SUGGESTS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ARE EXPECT ED THURSDAY...
WITH A LITTLE MORE MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. GENERALLY SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AT MOST
IS EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. WHILE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL BE BELOW THRESHOLD VALUES. HOWEVER A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. DID NOT ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME WAITING FOR DAY SHIFT TO CONSULT
WITH FIRE MANAGERS AND GET ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING
GRASSLAND CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 301354
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
854 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

REMOVED CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS FROM 18 UTC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
ALL MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE WELL EAST OF NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CANADIAN MODELS ALSO SHOW LITTLE TO NO
REFLECTIVITY BEHIND THE RAIN SHOWERS ON THE BORDER. DID BRIEFLY
INCREASE TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN ROLETTE COUNTY AS MINOT
RADAR SUGGEST THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY MAY GET A QUICK
SHOWER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

CLOUDS INFLUENCED BY A 300MB 100KT JET EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE JET. ALSO AN AREA OF JET
STREAM CIRRUS REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN CHANGES
WERE TO ADD CLOUDS FOR THE MORNING SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN ITEMS OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM ARE RAIN CHANCES NORTHEAST
AND BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL LIKELY ENTER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES THIS MORNING.

AS A RESULT OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A STEEPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 35
MPH WILL BE LIKELY.

STRONG WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS AN
H500 RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FAST FLOW
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL SET UP SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AFTER TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

AS STATED TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH HIGHS SHOULD
REACH CLOSE TO 60. MODEL FORECAST CAPE SUGGESTS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ARE EXPECT ED THURSDAY...
WITH A LITTLE MORE MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. GENERALLY SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AT MOST
IS EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. WHILE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL BE BELOW THRESHOLD VALUES. HOWEVER A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. DID NOT ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME WAITING FOR DAY SHIFT TO CONSULT
WITH FIRE MANAGERS AND GET ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING
GRASSLAND CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...WAA






000
FXUS63 KFGF 301151
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOME RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN CWA BUT
NOTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND SO FAR. THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY
GET SOME RAIN AS THE FRONTOGENSIS BAND STRENGTHENS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SO INCREASED CLOUDS FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

PRECIP COMING IN TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP OVER THE REGION...AND WV LOOP
SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT
ALONG WITH THE LOW...AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AT 800MB MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A SHORT TIME IN OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN
WARM AIR UPSTREAM...THINK THAT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY ALTHOUGH A FEW
FLAKES MIXING IN AS THE BAND MOVES IN THIS MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOME OF THE MODEL ARE PUTTING OUT
NEARLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN RECENT PERFORMANCE THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE AND KEPT TOP AMOUNTS JUST OVER A TENTH. THE
PRECIP SHOULD PUSH OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIP AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING OF 30KT 925MB WINDS. DO NOT
THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BUT IT SHOULD BE PRETTY
BREEZY IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TIER. BEHIND THE SFC LOW WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
KEPT HIGHS IN THE WEST IN THE 60S WHILE THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AS VERY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW. MIXING WILL DECREASE AND SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT WITH A PRETTY WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD
WILL KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE WARM TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE 50S TO LOW 60S
WITH NICE MIXING FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AND
MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FURTHER NORTH THAN OUR LAST STRONG TROUGH. Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND THE MODELS HAVE ONLY A TOKEN AMOUNT OF
QPF IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH BUT
WE GET THE DRY SLOT. KEPT ONLY SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND
THINK THAT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE
WILL BE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. 850MB TEMPS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW GET UP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS C...SO TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TOASTY ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A FAIRLY MILD START IN THE 40S THINK WE SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE
60S MOST AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND READINGS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. AS THE
LOW DEPARTS THE AREA...LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY FALL ACROSS
THE NRN PART OF THE AREA. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PCPN ON SATURDAY...AND A SHOT OF REINFORCING COOL AIR FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
THINK THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A BAND OF RAIN
MAY IMPACT KTVF AND KBJI LATER THIS MORNING BUT THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINY ABOUT HOW HEAVY. WILL KEEP VIS ABOVE 6SM AND CIGS ABOVE
3000 FT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 KTS AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 301151
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOME RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN CWA BUT
NOTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND SO FAR. THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY
GET SOME RAIN AS THE FRONTOGENSIS BAND STRENGTHENS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SO INCREASED CLOUDS FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

PRECIP COMING IN TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP OVER THE REGION...AND WV LOOP
SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT
ALONG WITH THE LOW...AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AT 800MB MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A SHORT TIME IN OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN
WARM AIR UPSTREAM...THINK THAT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY ALTHOUGH A FEW
FLAKES MIXING IN AS THE BAND MOVES IN THIS MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOME OF THE MODEL ARE PUTTING OUT
NEARLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN RECENT PERFORMANCE THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE AND KEPT TOP AMOUNTS JUST OVER A TENTH. THE
PRECIP SHOULD PUSH OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIP AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING OF 30KT 925MB WINDS. DO NOT
THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BUT IT SHOULD BE PRETTY
BREEZY IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TIER. BEHIND THE SFC LOW WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
KEPT HIGHS IN THE WEST IN THE 60S WHILE THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AS VERY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW. MIXING WILL DECREASE AND SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT WITH A PRETTY WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD
WILL KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE WARM TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE 50S TO LOW 60S
WITH NICE MIXING FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AND
MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FURTHER NORTH THAN OUR LAST STRONG TROUGH. Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND THE MODELS HAVE ONLY A TOKEN AMOUNT OF
QPF IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH BUT
WE GET THE DRY SLOT. KEPT ONLY SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND
THINK THAT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE
WILL BE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. 850MB TEMPS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW GET UP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS C...SO TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TOASTY ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A FAIRLY MILD START IN THE 40S THINK WE SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE
60S MOST AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND READINGS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. AS THE
LOW DEPARTS THE AREA...LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY FALL ACROSS
THE NRN PART OF THE AREA. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PCPN ON SATURDAY...AND A SHOT OF REINFORCING COOL AIR FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
THINK THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A BAND OF RAIN
MAY IMPACT KTVF AND KBJI LATER THIS MORNING BUT THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINY ABOUT HOW HEAVY. WILL KEEP VIS ABOVE 6SM AND CIGS ABOVE
3000 FT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 KTS AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 301151
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOME RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN CWA BUT
NOTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND SO FAR. THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY
GET SOME RAIN AS THE FRONTOGENSIS BAND STRENGTHENS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SO INCREASED CLOUDS FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

PRECIP COMING IN TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP OVER THE REGION...AND WV LOOP
SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT
ALONG WITH THE LOW...AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AT 800MB MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A SHORT TIME IN OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN
WARM AIR UPSTREAM...THINK THAT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY ALTHOUGH A FEW
FLAKES MIXING IN AS THE BAND MOVES IN THIS MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOME OF THE MODEL ARE PUTTING OUT
NEARLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN RECENT PERFORMANCE THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE AND KEPT TOP AMOUNTS JUST OVER A TENTH. THE
PRECIP SHOULD PUSH OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIP AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING OF 30KT 925MB WINDS. DO NOT
THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BUT IT SHOULD BE PRETTY
BREEZY IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TIER. BEHIND THE SFC LOW WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
KEPT HIGHS IN THE WEST IN THE 60S WHILE THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AS VERY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW. MIXING WILL DECREASE AND SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT WITH A PRETTY WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD
WILL KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE WARM TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE 50S TO LOW 60S
WITH NICE MIXING FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AND
MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FURTHER NORTH THAN OUR LAST STRONG TROUGH. Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND THE MODELS HAVE ONLY A TOKEN AMOUNT OF
QPF IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH BUT
WE GET THE DRY SLOT. KEPT ONLY SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND
THINK THAT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE
WILL BE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. 850MB TEMPS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW GET UP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS C...SO TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TOASTY ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A FAIRLY MILD START IN THE 40S THINK WE SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE
60S MOST AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND READINGS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. AS THE
LOW DEPARTS THE AREA...LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY FALL ACROSS
THE NRN PART OF THE AREA. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PCPN ON SATURDAY...AND A SHOT OF REINFORCING COOL AIR FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
THINK THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A BAND OF RAIN
MAY IMPACT KTVF AND KBJI LATER THIS MORNING BUT THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINY ABOUT HOW HEAVY. WILL KEEP VIS ABOVE 6SM AND CIGS ABOVE
3000 FT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 KTS AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 301151
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOME RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN CWA BUT
NOTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND SO FAR. THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY
GET SOME RAIN AS THE FRONTOGENSIS BAND STRENGTHENS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SO INCREASED CLOUDS FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

PRECIP COMING IN TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP OVER THE REGION...AND WV LOOP
SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT
ALONG WITH THE LOW...AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AT 800MB MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A SHORT TIME IN OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN
WARM AIR UPSTREAM...THINK THAT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY ALTHOUGH A FEW
FLAKES MIXING IN AS THE BAND MOVES IN THIS MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOME OF THE MODEL ARE PUTTING OUT
NEARLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN RECENT PERFORMANCE THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE AND KEPT TOP AMOUNTS JUST OVER A TENTH. THE
PRECIP SHOULD PUSH OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIP AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING OF 30KT 925MB WINDS. DO NOT
THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BUT IT SHOULD BE PRETTY
BREEZY IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TIER. BEHIND THE SFC LOW WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
KEPT HIGHS IN THE WEST IN THE 60S WHILE THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AS VERY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW. MIXING WILL DECREASE AND SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT WITH A PRETTY WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD
WILL KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE WARM TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE 50S TO LOW 60S
WITH NICE MIXING FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AND
MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FURTHER NORTH THAN OUR LAST STRONG TROUGH. Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND THE MODELS HAVE ONLY A TOKEN AMOUNT OF
QPF IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH BUT
WE GET THE DRY SLOT. KEPT ONLY SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND
THINK THAT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE
WILL BE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. 850MB TEMPS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW GET UP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS C...SO TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TOASTY ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A FAIRLY MILD START IN THE 40S THINK WE SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE
60S MOST AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND READINGS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. AS THE
LOW DEPARTS THE AREA...LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY FALL ACROSS
THE NRN PART OF THE AREA. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PCPN ON SATURDAY...AND A SHOT OF REINFORCING COOL AIR FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
THINK THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A BAND OF RAIN
MAY IMPACT KTVF AND KBJI LATER THIS MORNING BUT THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINY ABOUT HOW HEAVY. WILL KEEP VIS ABOVE 6SM AND CIGS ABOVE
3000 FT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 KTS AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KBIS 301142
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
642 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

CLOUDS INFLUENCED BY A 300MB 100KT JET EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE JET. ALSO AN AREA OF JET
STREAM CIRRUS REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN CHANGES
WERE TO ADD CLOUDS FOR THE MORNING SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN ITEMS OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM ARE RAIN CHANCES NORTHEAST
AND BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL LIKELY ENTER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES THIS MORNING.

AS A RESULT OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A STEEPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 35
MPH WILL BE LIKELY.

STRONG WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS AN
H500 RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FAST FLOW
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL SET UP SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AFTER TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

AS STATED TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH HIGHS SHOULD
REACH CLOSE TO 60. MODEL FORECAST CAPE SUGGESTS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ARE EXPECT ED THURSDAY...
WITH A LITTLE MORE MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. GENERALLY SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AT MOST
IS EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. WHILE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL BE BELOW THRESHOLD VALUES. HOWEVER A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. DID NOT ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME WAITING FOR DAY SHIFT TO CONSULT
WITH FIRE MANAGERS AND GET ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING
GRASSLAND CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 301142
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
642 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

CLOUDS INFLUENCED BY A 300MB 100KT JET EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE JET. ALSO AN AREA OF JET
STREAM CIRRUS REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN CHANGES
WERE TO ADD CLOUDS FOR THE MORNING SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN ITEMS OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM ARE RAIN CHANCES NORTHEAST
AND BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL LIKELY ENTER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES THIS MORNING.

AS A RESULT OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A STEEPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 35
MPH WILL BE LIKELY.

STRONG WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS AN
H500 RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FAST FLOW
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL SET UP SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AFTER TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

AS STATED TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH HIGHS SHOULD
REACH CLOSE TO 60. MODEL FORECAST CAPE SUGGESTS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ARE EXPECT ED THURSDAY...
WITH A LITTLE MORE MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. GENERALLY SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AT MOST
IS EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. WHILE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL BE BELOW THRESHOLD VALUES. HOWEVER A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. DID NOT ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME WAITING FOR DAY SHIFT TO CONSULT
WITH FIRE MANAGERS AND GET ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING
GRASSLAND CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 301142
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
642 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

CLOUDS INFLUENCED BY A 300MB 100KT JET EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE JET. ALSO AN AREA OF JET
STREAM CIRRUS REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN CHANGES
WERE TO ADD CLOUDS FOR THE MORNING SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN ITEMS OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM ARE RAIN CHANCES NORTHEAST
AND BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL LIKELY ENTER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES THIS MORNING.

AS A RESULT OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A STEEPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 35
MPH WILL BE LIKELY.

STRONG WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS AN
H500 RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FAST FLOW
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL SET UP SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AFTER TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

AS STATED TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH HIGHS SHOULD
REACH CLOSE TO 60. MODEL FORECAST CAPE SUGGESTS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ARE EXPECT ED THURSDAY...
WITH A LITTLE MORE MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. GENERALLY SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AT MOST
IS EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. WHILE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL BE BELOW THRESHOLD VALUES. HOWEVER A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. DID NOT ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME WAITING FOR DAY SHIFT TO CONSULT
WITH FIRE MANAGERS AND GET ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING
GRASSLAND CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 301142
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
642 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

CLOUDS INFLUENCED BY A 300MB 100KT JET EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE JET. ALSO AN AREA OF JET
STREAM CIRRUS REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN CHANGES
WERE TO ADD CLOUDS FOR THE MORNING SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN ITEMS OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM ARE RAIN CHANCES NORTHEAST
AND BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL LIKELY ENTER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES THIS MORNING.

AS A RESULT OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A STEEPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 35
MPH WILL BE LIKELY.

STRONG WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS AN
H500 RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FAST FLOW
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL SET UP SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AFTER TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

AS STATED TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH HIGHS SHOULD
REACH CLOSE TO 60. MODEL FORECAST CAPE SUGGESTS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ARE EXPECT ED THURSDAY...
WITH A LITTLE MORE MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. GENERALLY SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AT MOST
IS EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. WHILE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL BE BELOW THRESHOLD VALUES. HOWEVER A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. DID NOT ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME WAITING FOR DAY SHIFT TO CONSULT
WITH FIRE MANAGERS AND GET ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING
GRASSLAND CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 300921
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
421 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN ITEMS OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM ARE RAIN CHANCES NORTHEAST
AND BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL LIKELY ENTER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES THIS MORNING.

AS A RESULT OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A STEEPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 35
MPH WILL BE LIKELY.

STRONG WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS AN
H500 RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FAST FLOW
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL SET UP SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AFTER TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

AS STATED TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH HIGHS SHOULD
REACH CLOSE TO 60. MODEL FORECAST CAPE SUGGESTS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ARE EXPECT ED THURSDAY...
WITH A LITTLE MORE MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. GENERALLY SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AT MOST
IS EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. WHILE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL BE BELOW THRESHOLD VALUES. HOWEVER A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. DID NOT ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME WAITING FOR DAY SHIFT TO CONSULT
WITH FIRE MANAGERS AND GET ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING
GRASSLAND CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 300921
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
421 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN ITEMS OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM ARE RAIN CHANCES NORTHEAST
AND BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL LIKELY ENTER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES THIS MORNING.

AS A RESULT OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A STEEPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 35
MPH WILL BE LIKELY.

STRONG WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS AN
H500 RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FAST FLOW
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL SET UP SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AFTER TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

AS STATED TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH HIGHS SHOULD
REACH CLOSE TO 60. MODEL FORECAST CAPE SUGGESTS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ARE EXPECT ED THURSDAY...
WITH A LITTLE MORE MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. GENERALLY SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AT MOST
IS EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. WHILE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL BE BELOW THRESHOLD VALUES. HOWEVER A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. DID NOT ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME WAITING FOR DAY SHIFT TO CONSULT
WITH FIRE MANAGERS AND GET ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING
GRASSLAND CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...WAA









000
FXUS63 KBIS 300921
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
421 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN ITEMS OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM ARE RAIN CHANCES NORTHEAST
AND BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL LIKELY ENTER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES THIS MORNING.

AS A RESULT OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A STEEPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 35
MPH WILL BE LIKELY.

STRONG WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS AN
H500 RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FAST FLOW
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL SET UP SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AFTER TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

AS STATED TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH HIGHS SHOULD
REACH CLOSE TO 60. MODEL FORECAST CAPE SUGGESTS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ARE EXPECT ED THURSDAY...
WITH A LITTLE MORE MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. GENERALLY SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AT MOST
IS EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. WHILE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL BE BELOW THRESHOLD VALUES. HOWEVER A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. DID NOT ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME WAITING FOR DAY SHIFT TO CONSULT
WITH FIRE MANAGERS AND GET ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING
GRASSLAND CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 300921
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
421 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN ITEMS OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM ARE RAIN CHANCES NORTHEAST
AND BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL LIKELY ENTER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES THIS MORNING.

AS A RESULT OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A STEEPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 35
MPH WILL BE LIKELY.

STRONG WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS AN
H500 RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FAST FLOW
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL SET UP SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AFTER TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

AS STATED TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH HIGHS SHOULD
REACH CLOSE TO 60. MODEL FORECAST CAPE SUGGESTS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ARE EXPECT ED THURSDAY...
WITH A LITTLE MORE MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. GENERALLY SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AT MOST
IS EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. WHILE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL BE BELOW THRESHOLD VALUES. HOWEVER A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. DID NOT ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME WAITING FOR DAY SHIFT TO CONSULT
WITH FIRE MANAGERS AND GET ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING
GRASSLAND CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 300921
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
421 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN ITEMS OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM ARE RAIN CHANCES NORTHEAST
AND BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL LIKELY ENTER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES THIS MORNING.

AS A RESULT OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A STEEPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 35
MPH WILL BE LIKELY.

STRONG WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS AN
H500 RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FAST FLOW
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL SET UP SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AFTER TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

AS STATED TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH HIGHS SHOULD
REACH CLOSE TO 60. MODEL FORECAST CAPE SUGGESTS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ARE EXPECT ED THURSDAY...
WITH A LITTLE MORE MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. GENERALLY SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AT MOST
IS EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. WHILE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL BE BELOW THRESHOLD VALUES. HOWEVER A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. DID NOT ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME WAITING FOR DAY SHIFT TO CONSULT
WITH FIRE MANAGERS AND GET ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING
GRASSLAND CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 300921
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
421 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN ITEMS OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM ARE RAIN CHANCES NORTHEAST
AND BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL LIKELY ENTER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES THIS MORNING.

AS A RESULT OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A STEEPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 35
MPH WILL BE LIKELY.

STRONG WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS AN
H500 RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FAST FLOW
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL SET UP SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AFTER TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

AS STATED TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH HIGHS SHOULD
REACH CLOSE TO 60. MODEL FORECAST CAPE SUGGESTS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ARE EXPECT ED THURSDAY...
WITH A LITTLE MORE MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. GENERALLY SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AT MOST
IS EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. WHILE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL BE BELOW THRESHOLD VALUES. HOWEVER A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. DID NOT ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME WAITING FOR DAY SHIFT TO CONSULT
WITH FIRE MANAGERS AND GET ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING
GRASSLAND CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...WAA








000
FXUS63 KFGF 300853
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

PRECIP COMING IN TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP OVER THE REGION...AND WV LOOP
SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT
ALONG WITH THE LOW...AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AT 800MB MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A SHORT TIME IN OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN
WARM AIR UPSTREAM...THINK THAT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY ALTHOUGH A FEW
FLAKES MIXING IN AS THE BAND MOVES IN THIS MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOME OF THE MODEL ARE PUTTING OUT
NEARLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN RECENT PERFORMANCE THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE AND KEPT TOP AMOUNTS JUST OVER A TENTH. THE
PRECIP SHOULD PUSH OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIP AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING OF 30KT 925MB WINDS. DO NOT
THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BUT IT SHOULD BE PRETTY
BREEZY IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TIER. BEHIND THE SFC LOW WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
KEPT HIGHS IN THE WEST IN THE 60S WHILE THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AS VERY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW. MIXING WILL DECREASE AND SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT WITH A PRETTY WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD
WILL KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE WARM TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE 50S TO LOW 60S
WITH NICE MIXING FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AND
MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FURTHER NORTH THAN OUR LAST STRONG TROUGH. Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND THE MODELS HAVE ONLY A TOKEN AMOUNT OF
QPF IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH BUT
WE GET THE DRY SLOT. KEPT ONLY SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND
THINK THAT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE
WILL BE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. 850MB TEMPS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW GET UP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS C...SO TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TOASTY ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A FAIRLY MILD START IN THE 40S THINK WE SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE
60S MOST AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND READINGS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. AS THE
LOW DEPARTS THE AREA...LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY FALL ACROSS
THE NRN PART OF THE AREA. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PCPN ON SATURDAY...AND A SHOT OF REINFORCING COOL AIR FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THERE WILL BE A BAND OF VFR CIGS AFFECTING THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AROUND
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO 25KT AT TIMES ONCE FULL
MIXING IS REALIZED BY LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 300853
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

PRECIP COMING IN TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP OVER THE REGION...AND WV LOOP
SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT
ALONG WITH THE LOW...AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AT 800MB MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A SHORT TIME IN OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN
WARM AIR UPSTREAM...THINK THAT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY ALTHOUGH A FEW
FLAKES MIXING IN AS THE BAND MOVES IN THIS MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOME OF THE MODEL ARE PUTTING OUT
NEARLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN RECENT PERFORMANCE THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE AND KEPT TOP AMOUNTS JUST OVER A TENTH. THE
PRECIP SHOULD PUSH OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIP AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING OF 30KT 925MB WINDS. DO NOT
THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BUT IT SHOULD BE PRETTY
BREEZY IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TIER. BEHIND THE SFC LOW WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
KEPT HIGHS IN THE WEST IN THE 60S WHILE THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AS VERY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW. MIXING WILL DECREASE AND SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT WITH A PRETTY WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD
WILL KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE WARM TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE 50S TO LOW 60S
WITH NICE MIXING FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AND
MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FURTHER NORTH THAN OUR LAST STRONG TROUGH. Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND THE MODELS HAVE ONLY A TOKEN AMOUNT OF
QPF IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH BUT
WE GET THE DRY SLOT. KEPT ONLY SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND
THINK THAT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE
WILL BE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. 850MB TEMPS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW GET UP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS C...SO TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TOASTY ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A FAIRLY MILD START IN THE 40S THINK WE SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE
60S MOST AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND READINGS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. AS THE
LOW DEPARTS THE AREA...LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY FALL ACROSS
THE NRN PART OF THE AREA. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PCPN ON SATURDAY...AND A SHOT OF REINFORCING COOL AIR FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THERE WILL BE A BAND OF VFR CIGS AFFECTING THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AROUND
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO 25KT AT TIMES ONCE FULL
MIXING IS REALIZED BY LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 300526
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1226 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ONLY DROPPED TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A COUPLE
DEGREES AND ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE STAGE AT BANTRY ON THE SOURIS HAS RISEN FASTER THAN
FORECAST...SO A FLOOD WARNING FOR MINOR FLOODING WAS ISSUED.
OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS WINDS HAVE
COME DOWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING
INHIBITS MIXING. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INTO WESTERN
ND...BUT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION UNTIL
THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLIPS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...WHILE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. WINDS REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY OVER THE AREA WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

FOR TONIGHT...A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CLOUDS AS RIDGING TO THE WEST REMAINS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

ON MONDAY...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ENOUGH LIFT FROM
THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET DAY IS
IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING A BIT BREEZY AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SIMILAR TO
THIS PAST WEEKENDS WEATHER EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WILL BE TWO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WEST...AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
CENTRAL. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTAINS THE COLDEST AIR AND WILL
SHIFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTHWEST...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CENTRAL. BOTH WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS AS SEPARATE MODERATE
TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES FOLLOW EACH FRONT.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
FOCUSED AROUND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BUT WARM AIR
ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FIRE INTO
A CRITICAL/ERRATIC SCENARIO SHOULD A FIRE DEVELOP. POST FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BUT
ALSO STRONGER WINDS. WINDS COULD OVERPOWER THE INCREASING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHICH WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. WIND
SPEEDS FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME...WITH BOTH DAYS REMAINING JUST BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...A COORDINATION CALL TO THE FIRE MANAGEMENT
OFFICERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY DISCUSSING CONCERNS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE PASSED ALONG TO FUTURE SHIFTS.
WITH THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS TO SHIFT THROUGH...EXPECT A LONGER
DURATION OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...700MB-500MB RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO TAKE PLACE
WEST TOWARD 06Z WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 12Z CENTRAL. SPC INDICATED NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPINGING UPON OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CLOSER
TO 06Z WEST...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BOTH THE NAM/GFS
INDICATE A 8-9MB 3HR/6HR PRESSURE BUBBLE RISE SLIDING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY POSSIBLY BE MET FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS MODEL DATA AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
LIFTED INDICES/SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 0C AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
TO 400 J/KG WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH...AND
THEN SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE 850MB COLD POCKET THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 37 IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FIRMLY IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE TOWARD BROAD
RIDGING/WESTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY. THE SUPERBLEND BASICALLY KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOTHING
TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ






000
FXUS63 KBIS 300526
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1226 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ONLY DROPPED TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A COUPLE
DEGREES AND ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE STAGE AT BANTRY ON THE SOURIS HAS RISEN FASTER THAN
FORECAST...SO A FLOOD WARNING FOR MINOR FLOODING WAS ISSUED.
OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS WINDS HAVE
COME DOWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING
INHIBITS MIXING. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INTO WESTERN
ND...BUT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION UNTIL
THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLIPS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...WHILE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. WINDS REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY OVER THE AREA WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

FOR TONIGHT...A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CLOUDS AS RIDGING TO THE WEST REMAINS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

ON MONDAY...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ENOUGH LIFT FROM
THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET DAY IS
IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING A BIT BREEZY AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SIMILAR TO
THIS PAST WEEKENDS WEATHER EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WILL BE TWO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WEST...AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
CENTRAL. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTAINS THE COLDEST AIR AND WILL
SHIFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTHWEST...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CENTRAL. BOTH WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS AS SEPARATE MODERATE
TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES FOLLOW EACH FRONT.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
FOCUSED AROUND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BUT WARM AIR
ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FIRE INTO
A CRITICAL/ERRATIC SCENARIO SHOULD A FIRE DEVELOP. POST FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BUT
ALSO STRONGER WINDS. WINDS COULD OVERPOWER THE INCREASING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHICH WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. WIND
SPEEDS FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME...WITH BOTH DAYS REMAINING JUST BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...A COORDINATION CALL TO THE FIRE MANAGEMENT
OFFICERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY DISCUSSING CONCERNS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE PASSED ALONG TO FUTURE SHIFTS.
WITH THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS TO SHIFT THROUGH...EXPECT A LONGER
DURATION OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...700MB-500MB RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO TAKE PLACE
WEST TOWARD 06Z WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 12Z CENTRAL. SPC INDICATED NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPINGING UPON OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CLOSER
TO 06Z WEST...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BOTH THE NAM/GFS
INDICATE A 8-9MB 3HR/6HR PRESSURE BUBBLE RISE SLIDING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY POSSIBLY BE MET FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS MODEL DATA AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
LIFTED INDICES/SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 0C AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
TO 400 J/KG WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH...AND
THEN SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE 850MB COLD POCKET THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 37 IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FIRMLY IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE TOWARD BROAD
RIDGING/WESTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY. THE SUPERBLEND BASICALLY KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOTHING
TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 300526
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1226 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ONLY DROPPED TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A COUPLE
DEGREES AND ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE STAGE AT BANTRY ON THE SOURIS HAS RISEN FASTER THAN
FORECAST...SO A FLOOD WARNING FOR MINOR FLOODING WAS ISSUED.
OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS WINDS HAVE
COME DOWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING
INHIBITS MIXING. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INTO WESTERN
ND...BUT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION UNTIL
THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLIPS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...WHILE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. WINDS REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY OVER THE AREA WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

FOR TONIGHT...A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CLOUDS AS RIDGING TO THE WEST REMAINS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

ON MONDAY...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ENOUGH LIFT FROM
THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET DAY IS
IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING A BIT BREEZY AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SIMILAR TO
THIS PAST WEEKENDS WEATHER EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WILL BE TWO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WEST...AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
CENTRAL. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTAINS THE COLDEST AIR AND WILL
SHIFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTHWEST...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CENTRAL. BOTH WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS AS SEPARATE MODERATE
TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES FOLLOW EACH FRONT.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
FOCUSED AROUND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BUT WARM AIR
ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FIRE INTO
A CRITICAL/ERRATIC SCENARIO SHOULD A FIRE DEVELOP. POST FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BUT
ALSO STRONGER WINDS. WINDS COULD OVERPOWER THE INCREASING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHICH WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. WIND
SPEEDS FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME...WITH BOTH DAYS REMAINING JUST BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...A COORDINATION CALL TO THE FIRE MANAGEMENT
OFFICERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY DISCUSSING CONCERNS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE PASSED ALONG TO FUTURE SHIFTS.
WITH THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS TO SHIFT THROUGH...EXPECT A LONGER
DURATION OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...700MB-500MB RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO TAKE PLACE
WEST TOWARD 06Z WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 12Z CENTRAL. SPC INDICATED NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPINGING UPON OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CLOSER
TO 06Z WEST...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BOTH THE NAM/GFS
INDICATE A 8-9MB 3HR/6HR PRESSURE BUBBLE RISE SLIDING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY POSSIBLY BE MET FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS MODEL DATA AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
LIFTED INDICES/SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 0C AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
TO 400 J/KG WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH...AND
THEN SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE 850MB COLD POCKET THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 37 IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FIRMLY IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE TOWARD BROAD
RIDGING/WESTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY. THE SUPERBLEND BASICALLY KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOTHING
TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 300526
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1226 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ONLY DROPPED TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A COUPLE
DEGREES AND ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE STAGE AT BANTRY ON THE SOURIS HAS RISEN FASTER THAN
FORECAST...SO A FLOOD WARNING FOR MINOR FLOODING WAS ISSUED.
OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS WINDS HAVE
COME DOWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING
INHIBITS MIXING. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INTO WESTERN
ND...BUT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION UNTIL
THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLIPS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...WHILE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. WINDS REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY OVER THE AREA WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

FOR TONIGHT...A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CLOUDS AS RIDGING TO THE WEST REMAINS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

ON MONDAY...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ENOUGH LIFT FROM
THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET DAY IS
IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING A BIT BREEZY AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SIMILAR TO
THIS PAST WEEKENDS WEATHER EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WILL BE TWO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WEST...AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
CENTRAL. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTAINS THE COLDEST AIR AND WILL
SHIFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTHWEST...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CENTRAL. BOTH WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS AS SEPARATE MODERATE
TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES FOLLOW EACH FRONT.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
FOCUSED AROUND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BUT WARM AIR
ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FIRE INTO
A CRITICAL/ERRATIC SCENARIO SHOULD A FIRE DEVELOP. POST FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BUT
ALSO STRONGER WINDS. WINDS COULD OVERPOWER THE INCREASING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHICH WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. WIND
SPEEDS FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME...WITH BOTH DAYS REMAINING JUST BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...A COORDINATION CALL TO THE FIRE MANAGEMENT
OFFICERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY DISCUSSING CONCERNS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE PASSED ALONG TO FUTURE SHIFTS.
WITH THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS TO SHIFT THROUGH...EXPECT A LONGER
DURATION OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...700MB-500MB RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO TAKE PLACE
WEST TOWARD 06Z WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 12Z CENTRAL. SPC INDICATED NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPINGING UPON OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CLOSER
TO 06Z WEST...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BOTH THE NAM/GFS
INDICATE A 8-9MB 3HR/6HR PRESSURE BUBBLE RISE SLIDING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY POSSIBLY BE MET FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS MODEL DATA AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
LIFTED INDICES/SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 0C AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
TO 400 J/KG WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH...AND
THEN SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE 850MB COLD POCKET THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 37 IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FIRMLY IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE TOWARD BROAD
RIDGING/WESTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY. THE SUPERBLEND BASICALLY KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOTHING
TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ






000
FXUS63 KFGF 300429
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1129 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO CHANGE ANY SNOW MENTION LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING TO JUST RAIN. THERMAL FIELDS SUPPORT ALL
RAIN WITH ANY LIGHT QPF THAT FALLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY PCPN CHANCES TOMORROW AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP TO
A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING TONIGHT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN MID LEVEL NW FLOW TOMORROW. LOWEST
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM GFS 290K
SURFACE FAVOR BEST PCPN CHANCES OVER THE NE FA SO INCREASED POPS
IN THIS AREA. COULD INITIALLY BE A MIX BUT OVERALL PCPN SHOULD BE
LIQUID. COLUMN WARMS DURING THE DAY SO MODERATING TEMPERATURE
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE.

WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN DROP INTO THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FA EARLY TUESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING
FOR RETURN/FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION SO TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

NEXT WAVE WILL AFFECT THE FA WEDNESDAY. CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER S CANADA SO WITH BEST UPPER SUPPORT NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO CONFINED LOW POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WITH
THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE FA DURING THE DAY...DEPENDING ON
SOLAR SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEEPENING AND MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. HOWEVER...THERE MAY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF
AFFECTING THE NORTH IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. COLD AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO THE
40S FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
SECOND SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL REINFORCE THE
COOLER AIR IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THERE WILL BE A BAND OF VFR CIGS AFFECTING THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AROUND
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO 25KT AT TIMES ONCE FULL
MIXING IS REALIZED BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 300303
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1003 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES...WE WILL TWEAK SKY GRIDS A BIT...BUT THAT WILL
BE ABOUT ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY PCPN CHANCES TOMORROW AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP TO
A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING TONIGHT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN MID LEVEL NW FLOW TOMORROW. LOWEST
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM GFS 290K
SURFACE FAVOR BEST PCPN CHANCES OVER THE NE FA SO INCREASED POPS
IN THIS AREA. COULD INITIALLY BE A MIX BUT OVERALL PCPN SHOULD BE
LIQUID. COLUMN WARMS DURING THE DAY SO MODERATING TEMPERATURE
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE.

WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN DROP INTO THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FA EARLY TUESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING
FOR RETURN/FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION SO TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

NEXT WAVE WILL AFFECT THE FA WEDNESDAY. CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER S CANADA SO WITH BEST UPPER SUPPORT NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO CONFINED LOW POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WITH
THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE FA DURING THE DAY...DEPENDING ON
SOLAR SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEEPENING AND MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. HOWEVER...THERE MAY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF
AFFECTING THE NORTH IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. COLD AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO THE
40S FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
SECOND SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL REINFORCE THE
COOLER AIR IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME VFR CIGS
INCREASING LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A
STRAY SHOWER MAINLY IN THE NORTH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW AND INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD GUST TO NEAR
30KT LATE IN THIS PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 300303
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1003 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES...WE WILL TWEAK SKY GRIDS A BIT...BUT THAT WILL
BE ABOUT ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY PCPN CHANCES TOMORROW AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP TO
A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING TONIGHT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN MID LEVEL NW FLOW TOMORROW. LOWEST
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM GFS 290K
SURFACE FAVOR BEST PCPN CHANCES OVER THE NE FA SO INCREASED POPS
IN THIS AREA. COULD INITIALLY BE A MIX BUT OVERALL PCPN SHOULD BE
LIQUID. COLUMN WARMS DURING THE DAY SO MODERATING TEMPERATURE
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE.

WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN DROP INTO THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FA EARLY TUESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING
FOR RETURN/FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION SO TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

NEXT WAVE WILL AFFECT THE FA WEDNESDAY. CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER S CANADA SO WITH BEST UPPER SUPPORT NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO CONFINED LOW POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WITH
THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE FA DURING THE DAY...DEPENDING ON
SOLAR SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEEPENING AND MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. HOWEVER...THERE MAY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF
AFFECTING THE NORTH IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. COLD AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO THE
40S FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
SECOND SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL REINFORCE THE
COOLER AIR IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME VFR CIGS
INCREASING LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A
STRAY SHOWER MAINLY IN THE NORTH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW AND INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD GUST TO NEAR
30KT LATE IN THIS PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 300230
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
930 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE STAGE AT BANTRY ON THE SOURIS HAS RISEN FASTER THAN
FORECAST...SO A FLOOD WARNING FOR MINOR FLOODING WAS ISSUED.
OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS WINDS HAVE
COME DOWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING
INHIBITS MIXING. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INTO WESTERN
ND...BUT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION UNTIL
THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLIPS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...WHILE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. WINDS REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY OVER THE AREA WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

FOR TONIGHT...A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CLOUDS AS RIDGING TO THE WEST REMAINS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

ON MONDAY...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ENOUGH LIFT FROM
THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET DAY IS
IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING A BIT BREEZY AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SIMILAR TO
THIS PAST WEEKENDS WEATHER EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WILL BE TWO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WEST...AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
CENTRAL. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTAINS THE COLDEST AIR AND WILL
SHIFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTHWEST...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CENTRAL. BOTH WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS AS SEPARATE MODERATE
TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES FOLLOW EACH FRONT.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
FOCUSED AROUND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BUT WARM AIR
ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FIRE INTO
A CRITICAL/ERRATIC SCENARIO SHOULD A FIRE DEVELOP. POST FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BUT
ALSO STRONGER WINDS. WINDS COULD OVERPOWER THE INCREASING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHICH WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. WIND
SPEEDS FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME...WITH BOTH DAYS REMAINING JUST BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...A COORDINATION CALL TO THE FIRE MANAGEMENT
OFFICERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY DISCUSSING CONCERNS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE PASSED ALONG TO FUTURE SHIFTS.
WITH THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS TO SHIFT THROUGH...EXPECT A LONGER
DURATION OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...700MB-500MB RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO TAKE PLACE
WEST TOWARD 06Z WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 12Z CENTRAL. SPC INDICATED NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPINGING UPON OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CLOSER
TO 06Z WEST...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BOTH THE NAM/GFS
INDICATE A 8-9MB 3HR/6HR PRESSURE BUBBLE RISE SLIDING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY POSSIBLY BE MET FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS MODEL DATA AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
LIFTED INDICES/SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 0C AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
TO 400 J/KG WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH...AND
THEN SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE 850MB COLD POCKET THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 37 IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FIRMLY IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE TOWARD BROAD
RIDGING/WESTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY. THE SUPERBLEND BASICALLY KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOTHING
TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF
SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...SCHECK






000
FXUS63 KBIS 300230
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
930 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE STAGE AT BANTRY ON THE SOURIS HAS RISEN FASTER THAN
FORECAST...SO A FLOOD WARNING FOR MINOR FLOODING WAS ISSUED.
OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS WINDS HAVE
COME DOWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING
INHIBITS MIXING. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INTO WESTERN
ND...BUT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION UNTIL
THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLIPS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...WHILE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. WINDS REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY OVER THE AREA WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

FOR TONIGHT...A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CLOUDS AS RIDGING TO THE WEST REMAINS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

ON MONDAY...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ENOUGH LIFT FROM
THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET DAY IS
IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING A BIT BREEZY AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SIMILAR TO
THIS PAST WEEKENDS WEATHER EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WILL BE TWO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WEST...AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
CENTRAL. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTAINS THE COLDEST AIR AND WILL
SHIFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTHWEST...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CENTRAL. BOTH WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS AS SEPARATE MODERATE
TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES FOLLOW EACH FRONT.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
FOCUSED AROUND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BUT WARM AIR
ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FIRE INTO
A CRITICAL/ERRATIC SCENARIO SHOULD A FIRE DEVELOP. POST FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BUT
ALSO STRONGER WINDS. WINDS COULD OVERPOWER THE INCREASING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHICH WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. WIND
SPEEDS FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME...WITH BOTH DAYS REMAINING JUST BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...A COORDINATION CALL TO THE FIRE MANAGEMENT
OFFICERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY DISCUSSING CONCERNS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE PASSED ALONG TO FUTURE SHIFTS.
WITH THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS TO SHIFT THROUGH...EXPECT A LONGER
DURATION OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...700MB-500MB RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO TAKE PLACE
WEST TOWARD 06Z WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 12Z CENTRAL. SPC INDICATED NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPINGING UPON OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CLOSER
TO 06Z WEST...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BOTH THE NAM/GFS
INDICATE A 8-9MB 3HR/6HR PRESSURE BUBBLE RISE SLIDING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY POSSIBLY BE MET FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS MODEL DATA AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
LIFTED INDICES/SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 0C AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
TO 400 J/KG WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH...AND
THEN SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE 850MB COLD POCKET THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 37 IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FIRMLY IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE TOWARD BROAD
RIDGING/WESTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY. THE SUPERBLEND BASICALLY KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOTHING
TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF
SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...SCHECK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 300230
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
930 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE STAGE AT BANTRY ON THE SOURIS HAS RISEN FASTER THAN
FORECAST...SO A FLOOD WARNING FOR MINOR FLOODING WAS ISSUED.
OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS WINDS HAVE
COME DOWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING
INHIBITS MIXING. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INTO WESTERN
ND...BUT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION UNTIL
THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLIPS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...WHILE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. WINDS REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY OVER THE AREA WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

FOR TONIGHT...A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CLOUDS AS RIDGING TO THE WEST REMAINS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

ON MONDAY...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ENOUGH LIFT FROM
THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET DAY IS
IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING A BIT BREEZY AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SIMILAR TO
THIS PAST WEEKENDS WEATHER EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WILL BE TWO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WEST...AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
CENTRAL. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTAINS THE COLDEST AIR AND WILL
SHIFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTHWEST...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CENTRAL. BOTH WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS AS SEPARATE MODERATE
TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES FOLLOW EACH FRONT.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
FOCUSED AROUND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BUT WARM AIR
ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FIRE INTO
A CRITICAL/ERRATIC SCENARIO SHOULD A FIRE DEVELOP. POST FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BUT
ALSO STRONGER WINDS. WINDS COULD OVERPOWER THE INCREASING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHICH WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. WIND
SPEEDS FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME...WITH BOTH DAYS REMAINING JUST BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...A COORDINATION CALL TO THE FIRE MANAGEMENT
OFFICERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY DISCUSSING CONCERNS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE PASSED ALONG TO FUTURE SHIFTS.
WITH THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS TO SHIFT THROUGH...EXPECT A LONGER
DURATION OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...700MB-500MB RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO TAKE PLACE
WEST TOWARD 06Z WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 12Z CENTRAL. SPC INDICATED NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPINGING UPON OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CLOSER
TO 06Z WEST...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BOTH THE NAM/GFS
INDICATE A 8-9MB 3HR/6HR PRESSURE BUBBLE RISE SLIDING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY POSSIBLY BE MET FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS MODEL DATA AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
LIFTED INDICES/SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 0C AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
TO 400 J/KG WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH...AND
THEN SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE 850MB COLD POCKET THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 37 IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FIRMLY IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE TOWARD BROAD
RIDGING/WESTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY. THE SUPERBLEND BASICALLY KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOTHING
TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF
SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...SCHECK






000
FXUS63 KBIS 292335
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING
INHIBITS MIXING. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INTO WESTERN
ND...BUT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION UNTIL
THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLIPS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...WHILE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. WINDS REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY OVER THE AREA WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

FOR TONIGHT...A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CLOUDS AS RIDGING TO THE WEST REMAINS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

ON MONDAY...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ENOUGH LIFT FROM
THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET DAY IS
IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING A BIT BREEZY AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SIMILAR TO
THIS PAST WEEKENDS WEATHER EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WILL BE TWO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WEST...AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
CENTRAL. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTAINS THE COLDEST AIR AND WILL
SHIFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTHWEST...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CENTRAL. BOTH WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS AS SEPARATE MODERATE
TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES FOLLOW EACH FRONT.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
FOCUSED AROUND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BUT WARM AIR
ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FIRE INTO
A CRITICAL/ERRATIC SCENARIO SHOULD A FIRE DEVELOP. POST FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BUT
ALSO STRONGER WINDS. WINDS COULD OVERPOWER THE INCREASING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHICH WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. WIND
SPEEDS FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME...WITH BOTH DAYS REMAINING JUST BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...A COORDINATION CALL TO THE FIRE MANAGEMENT
OFFICERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY DISCUSSING CONCERNS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE PASSED ALONG TO FUTURE SHIFTS.
WITH THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS TO SHIFT THROUGH...EXPECT A LONGER
DURATION OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...700MB-500MB RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO TAKE PLACE
WEST TOWARD 06Z WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 12Z CENTRAL. SPC INDICATED NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPINGING UPON OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CLOSER
TO 06Z WEST...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BOTH THE NAM/GFS
INDICATE A 8-9MB 3HR/6HR PRESSURE BUBBLE RISE SLIDING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY POSSIBLY BE MET FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS MODEL DATA AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
LIFTED INDICES/SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 0C AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
TO 400 J/KG WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH...AND
THEN SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE 850MB COLD POCKET THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 37 IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FIRMLY IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE TOWARD BROAD
RIDGING/WESTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY. THE SUPERBLEND BASICALLY KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOTHING
TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...SCHECK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 292335
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING
INHIBITS MIXING. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INTO WESTERN
ND...BUT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION UNTIL
THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLIPS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...WHILE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. WINDS REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY OVER THE AREA WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

FOR TONIGHT...A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CLOUDS AS RIDGING TO THE WEST REMAINS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

ON MONDAY...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ENOUGH LIFT FROM
THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET DAY IS
IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING A BIT BREEZY AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SIMILAR TO
THIS PAST WEEKENDS WEATHER EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WILL BE TWO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WEST...AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
CENTRAL. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTAINS THE COLDEST AIR AND WILL
SHIFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTHWEST...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CENTRAL. BOTH WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS AS SEPARATE MODERATE
TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES FOLLOW EACH FRONT.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
FOCUSED AROUND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BUT WARM AIR
ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FIRE INTO
A CRITICAL/ERRATIC SCENARIO SHOULD A FIRE DEVELOP. POST FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BUT
ALSO STRONGER WINDS. WINDS COULD OVERPOWER THE INCREASING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHICH WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. WIND
SPEEDS FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME...WITH BOTH DAYS REMAINING JUST BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...A COORDINATION CALL TO THE FIRE MANAGEMENT
OFFICERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY DISCUSSING CONCERNS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE PASSED ALONG TO FUTURE SHIFTS.
WITH THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS TO SHIFT THROUGH...EXPECT A LONGER
DURATION OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...700MB-500MB RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO TAKE PLACE
WEST TOWARD 06Z WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 12Z CENTRAL. SPC INDICATED NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPINGING UPON OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CLOSER
TO 06Z WEST...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BOTH THE NAM/GFS
INDICATE A 8-9MB 3HR/6HR PRESSURE BUBBLE RISE SLIDING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY POSSIBLY BE MET FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS MODEL DATA AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
LIFTED INDICES/SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 0C AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
TO 400 J/KG WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH...AND
THEN SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE 850MB COLD POCKET THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 37 IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FIRMLY IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE TOWARD BROAD
RIDGING/WESTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY. THE SUPERBLEND BASICALLY KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOTHING
TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...SCHECK






000
FXUS63 KBIS 292335
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING
INHIBITS MIXING. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INTO WESTERN
ND...BUT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION UNTIL
THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLIPS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...WHILE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. WINDS REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY OVER THE AREA WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

FOR TONIGHT...A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CLOUDS AS RIDGING TO THE WEST REMAINS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

ON MONDAY...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ENOUGH LIFT FROM
THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET DAY IS
IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING A BIT BREEZY AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SIMILAR TO
THIS PAST WEEKENDS WEATHER EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WILL BE TWO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WEST...AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
CENTRAL. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTAINS THE COLDEST AIR AND WILL
SHIFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTHWEST...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CENTRAL. BOTH WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS AS SEPARATE MODERATE
TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES FOLLOW EACH FRONT.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
FOCUSED AROUND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BUT WARM AIR
ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FIRE INTO
A CRITICAL/ERRATIC SCENARIO SHOULD A FIRE DEVELOP. POST FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BUT
ALSO STRONGER WINDS. WINDS COULD OVERPOWER THE INCREASING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHICH WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. WIND
SPEEDS FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME...WITH BOTH DAYS REMAINING JUST BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...A COORDINATION CALL TO THE FIRE MANAGEMENT
OFFICERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY DISCUSSING CONCERNS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE PASSED ALONG TO FUTURE SHIFTS.
WITH THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS TO SHIFT THROUGH...EXPECT A LONGER
DURATION OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...700MB-500MB RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO TAKE PLACE
WEST TOWARD 06Z WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 12Z CENTRAL. SPC INDICATED NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPINGING UPON OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CLOSER
TO 06Z WEST...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BOTH THE NAM/GFS
INDICATE A 8-9MB 3HR/6HR PRESSURE BUBBLE RISE SLIDING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY POSSIBLY BE MET FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS MODEL DATA AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
LIFTED INDICES/SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 0C AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
TO 400 J/KG WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH...AND
THEN SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE 850MB COLD POCKET THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 37 IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FIRMLY IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE TOWARD BROAD
RIDGING/WESTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY. THE SUPERBLEND BASICALLY KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOTHING
TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...SCHECK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 292335
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING
INHIBITS MIXING. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INTO WESTERN
ND...BUT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION UNTIL
THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLIPS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...WHILE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. WINDS REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY OVER THE AREA WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

FOR TONIGHT...A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CLOUDS AS RIDGING TO THE WEST REMAINS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

ON MONDAY...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ENOUGH LIFT FROM
THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET DAY IS
IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING A BIT BREEZY AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SIMILAR TO
THIS PAST WEEKENDS WEATHER EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WILL BE TWO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WEST...AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
CENTRAL. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTAINS THE COLDEST AIR AND WILL
SHIFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTHWEST...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CENTRAL. BOTH WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS AS SEPARATE MODERATE
TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES FOLLOW EACH FRONT.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
FOCUSED AROUND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BUT WARM AIR
ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FIRE INTO
A CRITICAL/ERRATIC SCENARIO SHOULD A FIRE DEVELOP. POST FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BUT
ALSO STRONGER WINDS. WINDS COULD OVERPOWER THE INCREASING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHICH WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. WIND
SPEEDS FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME...WITH BOTH DAYS REMAINING JUST BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...A COORDINATION CALL TO THE FIRE MANAGEMENT
OFFICERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY DISCUSSING CONCERNS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE PASSED ALONG TO FUTURE SHIFTS.
WITH THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS TO SHIFT THROUGH...EXPECT A LONGER
DURATION OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...700MB-500MB RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO TAKE PLACE
WEST TOWARD 06Z WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 12Z CENTRAL. SPC INDICATED NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPINGING UPON OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CLOSER
TO 06Z WEST...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BOTH THE NAM/GFS
INDICATE A 8-9MB 3HR/6HR PRESSURE BUBBLE RISE SLIDING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY POSSIBLY BE MET FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS MODEL DATA AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
LIFTED INDICES/SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 0C AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
TO 400 J/KG WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH...AND
THEN SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE 850MB COLD POCKET THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 37 IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FIRMLY IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE TOWARD BROAD
RIDGING/WESTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY. THE SUPERBLEND BASICALLY KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOTHING
TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...SCHECK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 292330
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY...WITH WINDS DECREASING
QUICKLY. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES
PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY PCPN CHANCES TOMORROW AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP TO
A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING TONIGHT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN MID LEVEL NW FLOW TOMORROW. LOWEST
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM GFS 290K
SURFACE FAVOR BEST PCPN CHANCES OVER THE NE FA SO INCREASED POPS
IN THIS AREA. COULD INITIALLY BE A MIX BUT OVERALL PCPN SHOULD BE
LIQUID. COLUMN WARMS DURING THE DAY SO MODERATING TEMPERATURE
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE.

WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN DROP INTO THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FA EARLY TUESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING
FOR RETURN/FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION SO TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

NEXT WAVE WILL AFFECT THE FA WEDNESDAY. CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER S CANADA SO WITH BEST UPPER SUPPORT NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO CONFINED LOW POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WITH
THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE FA DURING THE DAY...DEPENDING ON
SOLAR SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEEPENING AND MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. HOWEVER...THERE MAY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF
AFFECTING THE NORTH IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. COLD AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO THE
40S FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
SECOND SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL REINFORCE THE
COOLER AIR IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME VFR CIGS
INCREASING LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A
STRAY SHOWER MAINLY IN THE NORTH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW AND INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD GUST TO NEAR
30KT LATE IN THIS PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 292330
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY...WITH WINDS DECREASING
QUICKLY. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES
PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY PCPN CHANCES TOMORROW AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP TO
A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING TONIGHT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN MID LEVEL NW FLOW TOMORROW. LOWEST
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM GFS 290K
SURFACE FAVOR BEST PCPN CHANCES OVER THE NE FA SO INCREASED POPS
IN THIS AREA. COULD INITIALLY BE A MIX BUT OVERALL PCPN SHOULD BE
LIQUID. COLUMN WARMS DURING THE DAY SO MODERATING TEMPERATURE
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE.

WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN DROP INTO THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FA EARLY TUESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING
FOR RETURN/FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION SO TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

NEXT WAVE WILL AFFECT THE FA WEDNESDAY. CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER S CANADA SO WITH BEST UPPER SUPPORT NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO CONFINED LOW POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WITH
THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE FA DURING THE DAY...DEPENDING ON
SOLAR SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEEPENING AND MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. HOWEVER...THERE MAY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF
AFFECTING THE NORTH IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. COLD AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO THE
40S FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
SECOND SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL REINFORCE THE
COOLER AIR IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME VFR CIGS
INCREASING LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A
STRAY SHOWER MAINLY IN THE NORTH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW AND INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD GUST TO NEAR
30KT LATE IN THIS PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KBIS 292044
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
344 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...WHILE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. WINDS REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY OVER THE AREA WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

FOR TONIGHT...A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CLOUDS AS RIDGING TO THE WEST REMAINS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

ON MONDAY...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ENOUGH LIFT FROM
THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET DAY IS
IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING A BIT BREEZY AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SIMILAR TO
THIS PAST WEEKENDS WEATHER EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WILL BE TWO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WEST...AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
CENTRAL. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTAINS THE COLDEST AIR AND WILL
SHIFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTHWEST...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CENTRAL. BOTH WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS AS SEPARATE MODERATE
TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES FOLLOW EACH FRONT.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
FOCUSED AROUND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BUT WARM AIR
ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FIRE INTO
A CRITICAL/ERRATIC SCENARIO SHOULD A FIRE DEVELOP. POST FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BUT
ALSO STRONGER WINDS. WINDS COULD OVERPOWER THE INCREASING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHICH WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. WIND
SPEEDS FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME...WITH BOTH DAYS REMAINING JUST BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...A COORDINATION CALL TO THE FIRE MANAGEMENT
OFFICERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY DISCUSSING CONCERNS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE PASSED ALONG TO FUTURE SHIFTS.
WITH THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS TO SHIFT THROUGH...EXPECT A LONGER
DURATION OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...700MB-500MB RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO TAKE PLACE
WEST TOWARD 06Z WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 12Z CENTRAL. SPC INDICATED NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPINGING UPON OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CLOSER
TO 06Z WEST...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BOTH THE NAM/GFS
INDICATE A 8-9MB 3HR/6HR PRESSURE BUBBLE RISE SLIDING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY POSSIBLY BE MET FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS MODEL DATA AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
LIFTED INDICES/SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 0C AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
TO 400 J/KG WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH...AND
THEN SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE 850MB COLD POCKET THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 37 IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FIRMLY IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE TOWARD BROAD
RIDGING/WESTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY. THE SUPERBLEND BASICALLY KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOTHING
TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL AFFECT THE KDIK
TERMINAL AND POSSIBLY THE KISN TERMINAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY
THE TIME THE CLOUDS REACH KMOT-KBIS EXPECT SCT-BKN CIGS TO BE AT
VFR LEVELS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFERNOON OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 292044
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
344 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...WHILE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. WINDS REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY OVER THE AREA WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

FOR TONIGHT...A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CLOUDS AS RIDGING TO THE WEST REMAINS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

ON MONDAY...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ENOUGH LIFT FROM
THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET DAY IS
IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING A BIT BREEZY AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SIMILAR TO
THIS PAST WEEKENDS WEATHER EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WILL BE TWO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WEST...AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
CENTRAL. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTAINS THE COLDEST AIR AND WILL
SHIFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTHWEST...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CENTRAL. BOTH WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS AS SEPARATE MODERATE
TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES FOLLOW EACH FRONT.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
FOCUSED AROUND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BUT WARM AIR
ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FIRE INTO
A CRITICAL/ERRATIC SCENARIO SHOULD A FIRE DEVELOP. POST FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BUT
ALSO STRONGER WINDS. WINDS COULD OVERPOWER THE INCREASING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHICH WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. WIND
SPEEDS FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME...WITH BOTH DAYS REMAINING JUST BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...A COORDINATION CALL TO THE FIRE MANAGEMENT
OFFICERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY DISCUSSING CONCERNS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE PASSED ALONG TO FUTURE SHIFTS.
WITH THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS TO SHIFT THROUGH...EXPECT A LONGER
DURATION OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...700MB-500MB RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO TAKE PLACE
WEST TOWARD 06Z WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 12Z CENTRAL. SPC INDICATED NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPINGING UPON OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CLOSER
TO 06Z WEST...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BOTH THE NAM/GFS
INDICATE A 8-9MB 3HR/6HR PRESSURE BUBBLE RISE SLIDING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY POSSIBLY BE MET FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS MODEL DATA AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
LIFTED INDICES/SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 0C AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
TO 400 J/KG WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH...AND
THEN SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE 850MB COLD POCKET THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 37 IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FIRMLY IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE TOWARD BROAD
RIDGING/WESTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY. THE SUPERBLEND BASICALLY KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOTHING
TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL AFFECT THE KDIK
TERMINAL AND POSSIBLY THE KISN TERMINAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY
THE TIME THE CLOUDS REACH KMOT-KBIS EXPECT SCT-BKN CIGS TO BE AT
VFR LEVELS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFERNOON OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 292044
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
344 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...WHILE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. WINDS REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY OVER THE AREA WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

FOR TONIGHT...A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CLOUDS AS RIDGING TO THE WEST REMAINS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

ON MONDAY...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ENOUGH LIFT FROM
THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET DAY IS
IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING A BIT BREEZY AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SIMILAR TO
THIS PAST WEEKENDS WEATHER EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WILL BE TWO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WEST...AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
CENTRAL. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTAINS THE COLDEST AIR AND WILL
SHIFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTHWEST...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CENTRAL. BOTH WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS AS SEPARATE MODERATE
TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES FOLLOW EACH FRONT.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
FOCUSED AROUND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BUT WARM AIR
ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FIRE INTO
A CRITICAL/ERRATIC SCENARIO SHOULD A FIRE DEVELOP. POST FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BUT
ALSO STRONGER WINDS. WINDS COULD OVERPOWER THE INCREASING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHICH WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. WIND
SPEEDS FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME...WITH BOTH DAYS REMAINING JUST BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...A COORDINATION CALL TO THE FIRE MANAGEMENT
OFFICERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY DISCUSSING CONCERNS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE PASSED ALONG TO FUTURE SHIFTS.
WITH THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS TO SHIFT THROUGH...EXPECT A LONGER
DURATION OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...700MB-500MB RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO TAKE PLACE
WEST TOWARD 06Z WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 12Z CENTRAL. SPC INDICATED NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPINGING UPON OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CLOSER
TO 06Z WEST...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BOTH THE NAM/GFS
INDICATE A 8-9MB 3HR/6HR PRESSURE BUBBLE RISE SLIDING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY POSSIBLY BE MET FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS MODEL DATA AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
LIFTED INDICES/SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 0C AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
TO 400 J/KG WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH...AND
THEN SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE 850MB COLD POCKET THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 37 IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FIRMLY IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE TOWARD BROAD
RIDGING/WESTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY. THE SUPERBLEND BASICALLY KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOTHING
TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL AFFECT THE KDIK
TERMINAL AND POSSIBLY THE KISN TERMINAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY
THE TIME THE CLOUDS REACH KMOT-KBIS EXPECT SCT-BKN CIGS TO BE AT
VFR LEVELS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFERNOON OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 292014
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
314 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY PCPN CHANCES TOMORROW AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP TO
A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING TONIGHT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN MID LEVEL NW FLOW TOMORROW. LOWEST
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM GFS 290K
SURFACE FAVOR BEST PCPN CHANCES OVER THE NE FA SO INCREASED POPS
IN THIS AREA. COULD INITIALLY BE A MIX BUT OVERALL PCPN SHOULD BE
LIQUID. COLUMN WARMS DURING THE DAY SO MODERATING TEMPERATURE
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE.

WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN DROP INTO THE 30S.



.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FA EARLY TUESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING
FOR RETURN/FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION SO TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

NEXT WAVE WILL AFFECT THE FA WEDNESDAY. CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER S CANADA SO WITH BEST UPPER SUPPORT NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO CONFINED LOW POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WITH
THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE FA DURING THE DAY...DEPENDING ON
SOLAR SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEEPENING AND MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. HOWEVER...THERE MAY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF
AFFECTING THE NORTH IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. COLD AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO THE
40S FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
SECOND SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL REINFORCE THE
COOLER AIR IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KFAR/KGFK/KDVL TODAY...AND MVFR CIGS
AT KTVF AND KBJI WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TODAY WITH THE AFTERNOON
SUN...LIKELY REACHING VFR AROUND MID AFTN. EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN AS
WELL...BECOMING FEW-SCT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
DIE OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ028>030-038-039-
     049-052-053.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ002-003-015-016-
     022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 292014
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
314 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY PCPN CHANCES TOMORROW AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP TO
A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING TONIGHT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN MID LEVEL NW FLOW TOMORROW. LOWEST
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM GFS 290K
SURFACE FAVOR BEST PCPN CHANCES OVER THE NE FA SO INCREASED POPS
IN THIS AREA. COULD INITIALLY BE A MIX BUT OVERALL PCPN SHOULD BE
LIQUID. COLUMN WARMS DURING THE DAY SO MODERATING TEMPERATURE
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE.

WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN DROP INTO THE 30S.



.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FA EARLY TUESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING
FOR RETURN/FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION SO TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

NEXT WAVE WILL AFFECT THE FA WEDNESDAY. CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER S CANADA SO WITH BEST UPPER SUPPORT NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO CONFINED LOW POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WITH
THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE FA DURING THE DAY...DEPENDING ON
SOLAR SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEEPENING AND MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. HOWEVER...THERE MAY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF
AFFECTING THE NORTH IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. COLD AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO THE
40S FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
SECOND SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL REINFORCE THE
COOLER AIR IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KFAR/KGFK/KDVL TODAY...AND MVFR CIGS
AT KTVF AND KBJI WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TODAY WITH THE AFTERNOON
SUN...LIKELY REACHING VFR AROUND MID AFTN. EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN AS
WELL...BECOMING FEW-SCT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
DIE OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ028>030-038-039-
     049-052-053.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ002-003-015-016-
     022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 292014
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
314 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY PCPN CHANCES TOMORROW AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP TO
A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING TONIGHT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN MID LEVEL NW FLOW TOMORROW. LOWEST
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM GFS 290K
SURFACE FAVOR BEST PCPN CHANCES OVER THE NE FA SO INCREASED POPS
IN THIS AREA. COULD INITIALLY BE A MIX BUT OVERALL PCPN SHOULD BE
LIQUID. COLUMN WARMS DURING THE DAY SO MODERATING TEMPERATURE
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE.

WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN DROP INTO THE 30S.



.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FA EARLY TUESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING
FOR RETURN/FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION SO TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

NEXT WAVE WILL AFFECT THE FA WEDNESDAY. CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER S CANADA SO WITH BEST UPPER SUPPORT NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO CONFINED LOW POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WITH
THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE FA DURING THE DAY...DEPENDING ON
SOLAR SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEEPENING AND MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. HOWEVER...THERE MAY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF
AFFECTING THE NORTH IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. COLD AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO THE
40S FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
SECOND SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL REINFORCE THE
COOLER AIR IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KFAR/KGFK/KDVL TODAY...AND MVFR CIGS
AT KTVF AND KBJI WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TODAY WITH THE AFTERNOON
SUN...LIKELY REACHING VFR AROUND MID AFTN. EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN AS
WELL...BECOMING FEW-SCT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
DIE OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ028>030-038-039-
     049-052-053.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ002-003-015-016-
     022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG







000
FXUS63 KBIS 291745
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1245 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE WILL BE LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY OVER
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DROP AT 18Z AS WINDS HAVE NOW DIMINISHED
BELOW CRITERIA ACROSS THE AREA. WILL ALSO BE ADJUSTING CLOUD COVER
A BIT AT SOME LOWER CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND ARE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER THE AREA AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST. WINDS ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS
HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL OFF TO THE EAST.
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE CLEARED OUT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...AND
HAVE TRIMMED OFF WINDS TO THE WEST. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRONGER GUSTS REMAIN...THOUGH
THESE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. JUST KEPT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. TRIMMED PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS WELL. CLOUDS
CLEARING RAPIDLY. PRECIP WILL END SOUTHEAST CWA BY 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL AFFECT THE KDIK
TERMINAL AND POSSIBLY THE KISN TERMINAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY
THE TIME THE CLOUDS REACH KMOT-KBIS EXPECT SCT-BKN CIGS TO BE AT
VFR LEVELS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFERNOON OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ025-037-047-
048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 291745
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1245 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE WILL BE LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY OVER
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DROP AT 18Z AS WINDS HAVE NOW DIMINISHED
BELOW CRITERIA ACROSS THE AREA. WILL ALSO BE ADJUSTING CLOUD COVER
A BIT AT SOME LOWER CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND ARE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER THE AREA AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST. WINDS ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS
HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL OFF TO THE EAST.
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE CLEARED OUT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...AND
HAVE TRIMMED OFF WINDS TO THE WEST. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRONGER GUSTS REMAIN...THOUGH
THESE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. JUST KEPT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. TRIMMED PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS WELL. CLOUDS
CLEARING RAPIDLY. PRECIP WILL END SOUTHEAST CWA BY 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL AFFECT THE KDIK
TERMINAL AND POSSIBLY THE KISN TERMINAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY
THE TIME THE CLOUDS REACH KMOT-KBIS EXPECT SCT-BKN CIGS TO BE AT
VFR LEVELS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFERNOON OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ025-037-047-
048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 291745
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1245 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE WILL BE LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY OVER
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DROP AT 18Z AS WINDS HAVE NOW DIMINISHED
BELOW CRITERIA ACROSS THE AREA. WILL ALSO BE ADJUSTING CLOUD COVER
A BIT AT SOME LOWER CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND ARE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER THE AREA AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST. WINDS ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS
HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL OFF TO THE EAST.
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE CLEARED OUT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...AND
HAVE TRIMMED OFF WINDS TO THE WEST. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRONGER GUSTS REMAIN...THOUGH
THESE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. JUST KEPT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. TRIMMED PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS WELL. CLOUDS
CLEARING RAPIDLY. PRECIP WILL END SOUTHEAST CWA BY 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL AFFECT THE KDIK
TERMINAL AND POSSIBLY THE KISN TERMINAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY
THE TIME THE CLOUDS REACH KMOT-KBIS EXPECT SCT-BKN CIGS TO BE AT
VFR LEVELS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFERNOON OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ025-037-047-
048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 291745
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1245 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE WILL BE LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY OVER
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DROP AT 18Z AS WINDS HAVE NOW DIMINISHED
BELOW CRITERIA ACROSS THE AREA. WILL ALSO BE ADJUSTING CLOUD COVER
A BIT AT SOME LOWER CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND ARE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER THE AREA AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST. WINDS ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS
HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL OFF TO THE EAST.
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE CLEARED OUT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...AND
HAVE TRIMMED OFF WINDS TO THE WEST. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRONGER GUSTS REMAIN...THOUGH
THESE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. JUST KEPT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. TRIMMED PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS WELL. CLOUDS
CLEARING RAPIDLY. PRECIP WILL END SOUTHEAST CWA BY 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL AFFECT THE KDIK
TERMINAL AND POSSIBLY THE KISN TERMINAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY
THE TIME THE CLOUDS REACH KMOT-KBIS EXPECT SCT-BKN CIGS TO BE AT
VFR LEVELS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFERNOON OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ025-037-047-
048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 291745
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1245 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE WILL BE LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY OVER
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DROP AT 18Z AS WINDS HAVE NOW DIMINISHED
BELOW CRITERIA ACROSS THE AREA. WILL ALSO BE ADJUSTING CLOUD COVER
A BIT AT SOME LOWER CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND ARE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER THE AREA AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST. WINDS ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS
HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL OFF TO THE EAST.
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE CLEARED OUT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...AND
HAVE TRIMMED OFF WINDS TO THE WEST. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRONGER GUSTS REMAIN...THOUGH
THESE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. JUST KEPT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. TRIMMED PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS WELL. CLOUDS
CLEARING RAPIDLY. PRECIP WILL END SOUTHEAST CWA BY 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL AFFECT THE KDIK
TERMINAL AND POSSIBLY THE KISN TERMINAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY
THE TIME THE CLOUDS REACH KMOT-KBIS EXPECT SCT-BKN CIGS TO BE AT
VFR LEVELS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFERNOON OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ025-037-047-
048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 291745
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1245 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE WILL BE LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY OVER
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DROP AT 18Z AS WINDS HAVE NOW DIMINISHED
BELOW CRITERIA ACROSS THE AREA. WILL ALSO BE ADJUSTING CLOUD COVER
A BIT AT SOME LOWER CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND ARE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER THE AREA AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST. WINDS ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS
HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL OFF TO THE EAST.
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE CLEARED OUT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...AND
HAVE TRIMMED OFF WINDS TO THE WEST. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRONGER GUSTS REMAIN...THOUGH
THESE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. JUST KEPT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. TRIMMED PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS WELL. CLOUDS
CLEARING RAPIDLY. PRECIP WILL END SOUTHEAST CWA BY 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL AFFECT THE KDIK
TERMINAL AND POSSIBLY THE KISN TERMINAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY
THE TIME THE CLOUDS REACH KMOT-KBIS EXPECT SCT-BKN CIGS TO BE AT
VFR LEVELS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFERNOON OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ025-037-047-
048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 291740
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STARTED TRIMMING BACK ON WIND ADVISORY AREA TO CLEAR DEVILS LAKE
BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND ADJACENT NW MN. WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY GOING ELSEWHERE FOR NOW. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHRA CONFINED TO THE FAR EAST AND ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. ALL
PCPN SHOULD CLEAR THE FA BY LATE MORNING. ADJUSTED CLOUD TRENDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CLEARING WITH REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST OK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ADJUSTED POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AS IT SEEMS MOST OF THE
PRECIP HAS ENTERED OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. KEPT POPS A BIT
LONGER IN THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THINK WE ARE
PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH RAIN IN THAT AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...BUT SOME SPOTS
BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE FALLEN BACK BELOW. THINK THERE SHOULD BE
SOME MIXING AS THE SUN RISES AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...SO WILL LEAVE
THE ADVISORY AS IT IS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS AND PRECIP TODAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TOMORROW
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS THE POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO MOVE
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW HAS ENTERED THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA. MOST OF THE PRECIP THAT HAS FALLEN SO FAR HAS
BEEN EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERE IS
ALSO SOME RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT THE CLASSIC COMMA HEAD TYPE WRAP
AROUND. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MOSTLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE RADAR TRENDS. LOWERED POPS A BIT IN THE NORTHWEST WHICH SEEMS
THAT IT WILL GET BYPASSED...BUT KEPT CATEGORICAL/LIKELY IN THE
EAST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIP MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 16Z OR SO. THINK THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY
RAIN ALTHOUGH KEPT THE POWT TOOLS IDEA OF A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN
ON THE BACK EDGE.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ARE HITTING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN SOME AREAS...BUT OTHER RANDOM SPOTS ARE NOT BLOWING AS
HARD. MODELS ALL HAVE THE HIGHEST 925MB WINDS OF 40 KTS AROUND 12Z
AND THEN DECREASING BY 18Z. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH MIXING
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO GET PRETTY WINDY AROUND SUNRISE.
THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE WINDS WILL LAST...AS ALTHOUGH MIXING
WILL BE GOOD WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE THE 925/850MB WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY AS IT IS AND CAN CANCEL IF
NEEDED.

TONIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS IN BUT ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN FROM MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN BY MONDAY.
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER WITH QPF BUT
GIVEN ALL MODELS TENDENCY TO OVERDO PRECIP LATELY WILL KEEP BEST
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN CWA WITH FAIRLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. WITH WARMER
925 TEMPS MOVING IN THINK THAT THE PRECIP WILL MOSTLY BE RAIN
ALTHOUGH A FEW FLAKES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EVEN WITH
PRECIP THINK WITH WEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD WARM
NICELY AND KEPT HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MID WEEK. MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S UNDER A WEAK SFC HIGH BUT TEMPS WILL
RECOVER NICELY FOR TUESDAY AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SETS UP SOUTHERLY WINDS. A VERY WARM AIR MASS
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS C BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF MIXING FROM THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUN DURING THE DAY KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S FOR TUESDAY WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND A RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN
CANADA. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LEADS TO A SPLIT FLOW.
UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS WAS A FASTER
SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE TRENDING
SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL REMOVE POPS ON FRI
AND WILL SHIFT INTO FRI NIGHT.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WED AND
WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY NORTH.

HIGH TEMPS INCREASED TWO OR THREE DEGREE FOR WED. LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPS FOR THU THROUGH SAT FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KFAR/KGFK/KDVL TODAY...AND MVFR CIGS
AT KTVF AND KBJI WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TODAY WITH THE AFTERNOON
SUN...LIKELY REACHING VFR AROUND MID AFTN. EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN AS
WELL...BECOMING FEW-SCT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
DIE OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ028>030-038-039-
     049-052-053.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ002-003-015-016-
     022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...HOPPES
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 291740
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STARTED TRIMMING BACK ON WIND ADVISORY AREA TO CLEAR DEVILS LAKE
BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND ADJACENT NW MN. WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY GOING ELSEWHERE FOR NOW. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHRA CONFINED TO THE FAR EAST AND ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. ALL
PCPN SHOULD CLEAR THE FA BY LATE MORNING. ADJUSTED CLOUD TRENDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CLEARING WITH REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST OK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ADJUSTED POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AS IT SEEMS MOST OF THE
PRECIP HAS ENTERED OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. KEPT POPS A BIT
LONGER IN THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THINK WE ARE
PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH RAIN IN THAT AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...BUT SOME SPOTS
BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE FALLEN BACK BELOW. THINK THERE SHOULD BE
SOME MIXING AS THE SUN RISES AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...SO WILL LEAVE
THE ADVISORY AS IT IS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS AND PRECIP TODAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TOMORROW
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS THE POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO MOVE
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW HAS ENTERED THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA. MOST OF THE PRECIP THAT HAS FALLEN SO FAR HAS
BEEN EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERE IS
ALSO SOME RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT THE CLASSIC COMMA HEAD TYPE WRAP
AROUND. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MOSTLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE RADAR TRENDS. LOWERED POPS A BIT IN THE NORTHWEST WHICH SEEMS
THAT IT WILL GET BYPASSED...BUT KEPT CATEGORICAL/LIKELY IN THE
EAST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIP MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 16Z OR SO. THINK THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY
RAIN ALTHOUGH KEPT THE POWT TOOLS IDEA OF A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN
ON THE BACK EDGE.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ARE HITTING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN SOME AREAS...BUT OTHER RANDOM SPOTS ARE NOT BLOWING AS
HARD. MODELS ALL HAVE THE HIGHEST 925MB WINDS OF 40 KTS AROUND 12Z
AND THEN DECREASING BY 18Z. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH MIXING
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO GET PRETTY WINDY AROUND SUNRISE.
THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE WINDS WILL LAST...AS ALTHOUGH MIXING
WILL BE GOOD WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE THE 925/850MB WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY AS IT IS AND CAN CANCEL IF
NEEDED.

TONIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS IN BUT ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN FROM MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN BY MONDAY.
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER WITH QPF BUT
GIVEN ALL MODELS TENDENCY TO OVERDO PRECIP LATELY WILL KEEP BEST
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN CWA WITH FAIRLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. WITH WARMER
925 TEMPS MOVING IN THINK THAT THE PRECIP WILL MOSTLY BE RAIN
ALTHOUGH A FEW FLAKES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EVEN WITH
PRECIP THINK WITH WEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD WARM
NICELY AND KEPT HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MID WEEK. MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S UNDER A WEAK SFC HIGH BUT TEMPS WILL
RECOVER NICELY FOR TUESDAY AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SETS UP SOUTHERLY WINDS. A VERY WARM AIR MASS
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS C BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF MIXING FROM THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUN DURING THE DAY KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S FOR TUESDAY WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND A RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN
CANADA. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LEADS TO A SPLIT FLOW.
UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS WAS A FASTER
SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE TRENDING
SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL REMOVE POPS ON FRI
AND WILL SHIFT INTO FRI NIGHT.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WED AND
WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY NORTH.

HIGH TEMPS INCREASED TWO OR THREE DEGREE FOR WED. LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPS FOR THU THROUGH SAT FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KFAR/KGFK/KDVL TODAY...AND MVFR CIGS
AT KTVF AND KBJI WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TODAY WITH THE AFTERNOON
SUN...LIKELY REACHING VFR AROUND MID AFTN. EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN AS
WELL...BECOMING FEW-SCT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
DIE OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ028>030-038-039-
     049-052-053.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ002-003-015-016-
     022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...HOPPES
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 291740
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STARTED TRIMMING BACK ON WIND ADVISORY AREA TO CLEAR DEVILS LAKE
BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND ADJACENT NW MN. WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY GOING ELSEWHERE FOR NOW. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHRA CONFINED TO THE FAR EAST AND ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. ALL
PCPN SHOULD CLEAR THE FA BY LATE MORNING. ADJUSTED CLOUD TRENDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CLEARING WITH REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST OK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ADJUSTED POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AS IT SEEMS MOST OF THE
PRECIP HAS ENTERED OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. KEPT POPS A BIT
LONGER IN THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THINK WE ARE
PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH RAIN IN THAT AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...BUT SOME SPOTS
BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE FALLEN BACK BELOW. THINK THERE SHOULD BE
SOME MIXING AS THE SUN RISES AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...SO WILL LEAVE
THE ADVISORY AS IT IS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS AND PRECIP TODAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TOMORROW
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS THE POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO MOVE
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW HAS ENTERED THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA. MOST OF THE PRECIP THAT HAS FALLEN SO FAR HAS
BEEN EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERE IS
ALSO SOME RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT THE CLASSIC COMMA HEAD TYPE WRAP
AROUND. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MOSTLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE RADAR TRENDS. LOWERED POPS A BIT IN THE NORTHWEST WHICH SEEMS
THAT IT WILL GET BYPASSED...BUT KEPT CATEGORICAL/LIKELY IN THE
EAST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIP MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 16Z OR SO. THINK THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY
RAIN ALTHOUGH KEPT THE POWT TOOLS IDEA OF A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN
ON THE BACK EDGE.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ARE HITTING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN SOME AREAS...BUT OTHER RANDOM SPOTS ARE NOT BLOWING AS
HARD. MODELS ALL HAVE THE HIGHEST 925MB WINDS OF 40 KTS AROUND 12Z
AND THEN DECREASING BY 18Z. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH MIXING
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO GET PRETTY WINDY AROUND SUNRISE.
THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE WINDS WILL LAST...AS ALTHOUGH MIXING
WILL BE GOOD WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE THE 925/850MB WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY AS IT IS AND CAN CANCEL IF
NEEDED.

TONIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS IN BUT ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN FROM MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN BY MONDAY.
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER WITH QPF BUT
GIVEN ALL MODELS TENDENCY TO OVERDO PRECIP LATELY WILL KEEP BEST
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN CWA WITH FAIRLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. WITH WARMER
925 TEMPS MOVING IN THINK THAT THE PRECIP WILL MOSTLY BE RAIN
ALTHOUGH A FEW FLAKES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EVEN WITH
PRECIP THINK WITH WEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD WARM
NICELY AND KEPT HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MID WEEK. MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S UNDER A WEAK SFC HIGH BUT TEMPS WILL
RECOVER NICELY FOR TUESDAY AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SETS UP SOUTHERLY WINDS. A VERY WARM AIR MASS
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS C BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF MIXING FROM THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUN DURING THE DAY KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S FOR TUESDAY WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND A RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN
CANADA. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LEADS TO A SPLIT FLOW.
UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS WAS A FASTER
SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE TRENDING
SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL REMOVE POPS ON FRI
AND WILL SHIFT INTO FRI NIGHT.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WED AND
WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY NORTH.

HIGH TEMPS INCREASED TWO OR THREE DEGREE FOR WED. LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPS FOR THU THROUGH SAT FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KFAR/KGFK/KDVL TODAY...AND MVFR CIGS
AT KTVF AND KBJI WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TODAY WITH THE AFTERNOON
SUN...LIKELY REACHING VFR AROUND MID AFTN. EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN AS
WELL...BECOMING FEW-SCT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
DIE OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ028>030-038-039-
     049-052-053.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ002-003-015-016-
     022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...HOPPES
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 291740
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STARTED TRIMMING BACK ON WIND ADVISORY AREA TO CLEAR DEVILS LAKE
BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND ADJACENT NW MN. WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY GOING ELSEWHERE FOR NOW. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHRA CONFINED TO THE FAR EAST AND ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. ALL
PCPN SHOULD CLEAR THE FA BY LATE MORNING. ADJUSTED CLOUD TRENDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CLEARING WITH REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST OK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ADJUSTED POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AS IT SEEMS MOST OF THE
PRECIP HAS ENTERED OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. KEPT POPS A BIT
LONGER IN THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THINK WE ARE
PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH RAIN IN THAT AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...BUT SOME SPOTS
BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE FALLEN BACK BELOW. THINK THERE SHOULD BE
SOME MIXING AS THE SUN RISES AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...SO WILL LEAVE
THE ADVISORY AS IT IS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS AND PRECIP TODAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TOMORROW
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS THE POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO MOVE
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW HAS ENTERED THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA. MOST OF THE PRECIP THAT HAS FALLEN SO FAR HAS
BEEN EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERE IS
ALSO SOME RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT THE CLASSIC COMMA HEAD TYPE WRAP
AROUND. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MOSTLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE RADAR TRENDS. LOWERED POPS A BIT IN THE NORTHWEST WHICH SEEMS
THAT IT WILL GET BYPASSED...BUT KEPT CATEGORICAL/LIKELY IN THE
EAST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIP MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 16Z OR SO. THINK THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY
RAIN ALTHOUGH KEPT THE POWT TOOLS IDEA OF A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN
ON THE BACK EDGE.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ARE HITTING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN SOME AREAS...BUT OTHER RANDOM SPOTS ARE NOT BLOWING AS
HARD. MODELS ALL HAVE THE HIGHEST 925MB WINDS OF 40 KTS AROUND 12Z
AND THEN DECREASING BY 18Z. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH MIXING
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO GET PRETTY WINDY AROUND SUNRISE.
THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE WINDS WILL LAST...AS ALTHOUGH MIXING
WILL BE GOOD WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE THE 925/850MB WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY AS IT IS AND CAN CANCEL IF
NEEDED.

TONIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS IN BUT ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN FROM MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN BY MONDAY.
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER WITH QPF BUT
GIVEN ALL MODELS TENDENCY TO OVERDO PRECIP LATELY WILL KEEP BEST
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN CWA WITH FAIRLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. WITH WARMER
925 TEMPS MOVING IN THINK THAT THE PRECIP WILL MOSTLY BE RAIN
ALTHOUGH A FEW FLAKES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EVEN WITH
PRECIP THINK WITH WEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD WARM
NICELY AND KEPT HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MID WEEK. MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S UNDER A WEAK SFC HIGH BUT TEMPS WILL
RECOVER NICELY FOR TUESDAY AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SETS UP SOUTHERLY WINDS. A VERY WARM AIR MASS
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS C BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF MIXING FROM THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUN DURING THE DAY KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S FOR TUESDAY WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND A RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN
CANADA. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LEADS TO A SPLIT FLOW.
UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS WAS A FASTER
SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE TRENDING
SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL REMOVE POPS ON FRI
AND WILL SHIFT INTO FRI NIGHT.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WED AND
WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY NORTH.

HIGH TEMPS INCREASED TWO OR THREE DEGREE FOR WED. LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPS FOR THU THROUGH SAT FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KFAR/KGFK/KDVL TODAY...AND MVFR CIGS
AT KTVF AND KBJI WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TODAY WITH THE AFTERNOON
SUN...LIKELY REACHING VFR AROUND MID AFTN. EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN AS
WELL...BECOMING FEW-SCT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
DIE OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ028>030-038-039-
     049-052-053.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ002-003-015-016-
     022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...HOPPES
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 291740
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STARTED TRIMMING BACK ON WIND ADVISORY AREA TO CLEAR DEVILS LAKE
BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND ADJACENT NW MN. WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY GOING ELSEWHERE FOR NOW. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHRA CONFINED TO THE FAR EAST AND ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. ALL
PCPN SHOULD CLEAR THE FA BY LATE MORNING. ADJUSTED CLOUD TRENDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CLEARING WITH REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST OK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ADJUSTED POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AS IT SEEMS MOST OF THE
PRECIP HAS ENTERED OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. KEPT POPS A BIT
LONGER IN THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THINK WE ARE
PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH RAIN IN THAT AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...BUT SOME SPOTS
BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE FALLEN BACK BELOW. THINK THERE SHOULD BE
SOME MIXING AS THE SUN RISES AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...SO WILL LEAVE
THE ADVISORY AS IT IS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS AND PRECIP TODAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TOMORROW
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS THE POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO MOVE
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW HAS ENTERED THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA. MOST OF THE PRECIP THAT HAS FALLEN SO FAR HAS
BEEN EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERE IS
ALSO SOME RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT THE CLASSIC COMMA HEAD TYPE WRAP
AROUND. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MOSTLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE RADAR TRENDS. LOWERED POPS A BIT IN THE NORTHWEST WHICH SEEMS
THAT IT WILL GET BYPASSED...BUT KEPT CATEGORICAL/LIKELY IN THE
EAST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIP MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 16Z OR SO. THINK THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY
RAIN ALTHOUGH KEPT THE POWT TOOLS IDEA OF A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN
ON THE BACK EDGE.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ARE HITTING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN SOME AREAS...BUT OTHER RANDOM SPOTS ARE NOT BLOWING AS
HARD. MODELS ALL HAVE THE HIGHEST 925MB WINDS OF 40 KTS AROUND 12Z
AND THEN DECREASING BY 18Z. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH MIXING
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO GET PRETTY WINDY AROUND SUNRISE.
THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE WINDS WILL LAST...AS ALTHOUGH MIXING
WILL BE GOOD WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE THE 925/850MB WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY AS IT IS AND CAN CANCEL IF
NEEDED.

TONIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS IN BUT ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN FROM MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN BY MONDAY.
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER WITH QPF BUT
GIVEN ALL MODELS TENDENCY TO OVERDO PRECIP LATELY WILL KEEP BEST
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN CWA WITH FAIRLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. WITH WARMER
925 TEMPS MOVING IN THINK THAT THE PRECIP WILL MOSTLY BE RAIN
ALTHOUGH A FEW FLAKES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EVEN WITH
PRECIP THINK WITH WEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD WARM
NICELY AND KEPT HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MID WEEK. MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S UNDER A WEAK SFC HIGH BUT TEMPS WILL
RECOVER NICELY FOR TUESDAY AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SETS UP SOUTHERLY WINDS. A VERY WARM AIR MASS
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS C BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF MIXING FROM THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUN DURING THE DAY KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S FOR TUESDAY WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND A RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN
CANADA. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LEADS TO A SPLIT FLOW.
UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS WAS A FASTER
SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE TRENDING
SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL REMOVE POPS ON FRI
AND WILL SHIFT INTO FRI NIGHT.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WED AND
WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY NORTH.

HIGH TEMPS INCREASED TWO OR THREE DEGREE FOR WED. LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPS FOR THU THROUGH SAT FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KFAR/KGFK/KDVL TODAY...AND MVFR CIGS
AT KTVF AND KBJI WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TODAY WITH THE AFTERNOON
SUN...LIKELY REACHING VFR AROUND MID AFTN. EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN AS
WELL...BECOMING FEW-SCT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
DIE OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ028>030-038-039-
     049-052-053.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ002-003-015-016-
     022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...HOPPES
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 291740
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STARTED TRIMMING BACK ON WIND ADVISORY AREA TO CLEAR DEVILS LAKE
BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND ADJACENT NW MN. WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY GOING ELSEWHERE FOR NOW. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHRA CONFINED TO THE FAR EAST AND ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. ALL
PCPN SHOULD CLEAR THE FA BY LATE MORNING. ADJUSTED CLOUD TRENDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CLEARING WITH REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST OK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ADJUSTED POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AS IT SEEMS MOST OF THE
PRECIP HAS ENTERED OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. KEPT POPS A BIT
LONGER IN THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THINK WE ARE
PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH RAIN IN THAT AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...BUT SOME SPOTS
BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE FALLEN BACK BELOW. THINK THERE SHOULD BE
SOME MIXING AS THE SUN RISES AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...SO WILL LEAVE
THE ADVISORY AS IT IS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS AND PRECIP TODAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TOMORROW
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS THE POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO MOVE
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW HAS ENTERED THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA. MOST OF THE PRECIP THAT HAS FALLEN SO FAR HAS
BEEN EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERE IS
ALSO SOME RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT THE CLASSIC COMMA HEAD TYPE WRAP
AROUND. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MOSTLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE RADAR TRENDS. LOWERED POPS A BIT IN THE NORTHWEST WHICH SEEMS
THAT IT WILL GET BYPASSED...BUT KEPT CATEGORICAL/LIKELY IN THE
EAST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIP MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 16Z OR SO. THINK THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY
RAIN ALTHOUGH KEPT THE POWT TOOLS IDEA OF A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN
ON THE BACK EDGE.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ARE HITTING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN SOME AREAS...BUT OTHER RANDOM SPOTS ARE NOT BLOWING AS
HARD. MODELS ALL HAVE THE HIGHEST 925MB WINDS OF 40 KTS AROUND 12Z
AND THEN DECREASING BY 18Z. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH MIXING
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO GET PRETTY WINDY AROUND SUNRISE.
THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE WINDS WILL LAST...AS ALTHOUGH MIXING
WILL BE GOOD WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE THE 925/850MB WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY AS IT IS AND CAN CANCEL IF
NEEDED.

TONIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS IN BUT ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN FROM MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN BY MONDAY.
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER WITH QPF BUT
GIVEN ALL MODELS TENDENCY TO OVERDO PRECIP LATELY WILL KEEP BEST
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN CWA WITH FAIRLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. WITH WARMER
925 TEMPS MOVING IN THINK THAT THE PRECIP WILL MOSTLY BE RAIN
ALTHOUGH A FEW FLAKES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EVEN WITH
PRECIP THINK WITH WEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD WARM
NICELY AND KEPT HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MID WEEK. MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S UNDER A WEAK SFC HIGH BUT TEMPS WILL
RECOVER NICELY FOR TUESDAY AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SETS UP SOUTHERLY WINDS. A VERY WARM AIR MASS
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS C BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF MIXING FROM THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUN DURING THE DAY KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S FOR TUESDAY WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND A RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN
CANADA. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LEADS TO A SPLIT FLOW.
UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS WAS A FASTER
SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE TRENDING
SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL REMOVE POPS ON FRI
AND WILL SHIFT INTO FRI NIGHT.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WED AND
WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY NORTH.

HIGH TEMPS INCREASED TWO OR THREE DEGREE FOR WED. LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPS FOR THU THROUGH SAT FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KFAR/KGFK/KDVL TODAY...AND MVFR CIGS
AT KTVF AND KBJI WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TODAY WITH THE AFTERNOON
SUN...LIKELY REACHING VFR AROUND MID AFTN. EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN AS
WELL...BECOMING FEW-SCT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
DIE OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ028>030-038-039-
     049-052-053.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ002-003-015-016-
     022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...HOPPES
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG







000
FXUS63 KBIS 291437
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER THE AREA AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST. WINDS ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS
HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL OFF TO THE EAST.
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE CLEARED OUT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...AND
HAVE TRIMMED OFF WINDS TO THE WEST. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRONGER GUSTS REMAIN...THOUGH
THESE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. JUST KEPT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. TRIMMED PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS WELL. CLOUDS
CLEARING RAPIDLY. PRECIP WILL END SOUTHEAST CWA BY 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WIND DIMINISHING AND SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING. AFTER 9 AM CDT VFR
ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ025-037-047-
048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 291437
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER THE AREA AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST. WINDS ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS
HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL OFF TO THE EAST.
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE CLEARED OUT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...AND
HAVE TRIMMED OFF WINDS TO THE WEST. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRONGER GUSTS REMAIN...THOUGH
THESE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. JUST KEPT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. TRIMMED PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS WELL. CLOUDS
CLEARING RAPIDLY. PRECIP WILL END SOUTHEAST CWA BY 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WIND DIMINISHING AND SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING. AFTER 9 AM CDT VFR
ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ025-037-047-
048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 291437
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER THE AREA AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST. WINDS ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS
HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL OFF TO THE EAST.
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE CLEARED OUT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...AND
HAVE TRIMMED OFF WINDS TO THE WEST. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRONGER GUSTS REMAIN...THOUGH
THESE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. JUST KEPT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. TRIMMED PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS WELL. CLOUDS
CLEARING RAPIDLY. PRECIP WILL END SOUTHEAST CWA BY 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WIND DIMINISHING AND SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING. AFTER 9 AM CDT VFR
ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ025-037-047-
048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 291437
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER THE AREA AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST. WINDS ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS
HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL OFF TO THE EAST.
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE CLEARED OUT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...AND
HAVE TRIMMED OFF WINDS TO THE WEST. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRONGER GUSTS REMAIN...THOUGH
THESE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. JUST KEPT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. TRIMMED PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS WELL. CLOUDS
CLEARING RAPIDLY. PRECIP WILL END SOUTHEAST CWA BY 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WIND DIMINISHING AND SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING. AFTER 9 AM CDT VFR
ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ025-037-047-
048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 291437
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER THE AREA AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST. WINDS ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS
HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL OFF TO THE EAST.
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE CLEARED OUT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...AND
HAVE TRIMMED OFF WINDS TO THE WEST. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRONGER GUSTS REMAIN...THOUGH
THESE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. JUST KEPT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. TRIMMED PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS WELL. CLOUDS
CLEARING RAPIDLY. PRECIP WILL END SOUTHEAST CWA BY 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WIND DIMINISHING AND SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING. AFTER 9 AM CDT VFR
ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ025-037-047-
048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 291437
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER THE AREA AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST. WINDS ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS
HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL OFF TO THE EAST.
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE CLEARED OUT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...AND
HAVE TRIMMED OFF WINDS TO THE WEST. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRONGER GUSTS REMAIN...THOUGH
THESE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. JUST KEPT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. TRIMMED PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS WELL. CLOUDS
CLEARING RAPIDLY. PRECIP WILL END SOUTHEAST CWA BY 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WIND DIMINISHING AND SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING. AFTER 9 AM CDT VFR
ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ025-037-047-
048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 291433
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHRA CONFINED TO THE FAR EAST AND ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. ALL
PCPN SHOULD CLEAR THE FA BY LATE MORNING. ADJUSTED CLOUD TRENDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CLEARING WITH REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST OK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ADJUSTED POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AS IT SEEMS MOST OF THE
PRECIP HAS ENTERED OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. KEPT POPS A BIT
LONGER IN THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THINK WE ARE
PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH RAIN IN THAT AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...BUT SOME SPOTS
BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE FALLEN BACK BELOW. THINK THERE SHOULD BE
SOME MIXING AS THE SUN RISES AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...SO WILL LEAVE
THE ADVISORY AS IT IS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS AND PRECIP TODAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TOMORROW
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS THE POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO MOVE
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW HAS ENTERED THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA. MOST OF THE PRECIP THAT HAS FALLEN SO FAR HAS
BEEN EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERE IS
ALSO SOME RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT THE CLASSIC COMMA HEAD TYPE WRAP
AROUND. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MOSTLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE RADAR TRENDS. LOWERED POPS A BIT IN THE NORTHWEST WHICH SEEMS
THAT IT WILL GET BYPASSED...BUT KEPT CATEGORICAL/LIKELY IN THE
EAST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIP MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 16Z OR SO. THINK THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY
RAIN ALTHOUGH KEPT THE POWT TOOLS IDEA OF A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN
ON THE BACK EDGE.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ARE HITTING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN SOME AREAS...BUT OTHER RANDOM SPOTS ARE NOT BLOWING AS
HARD. MODELS ALL HAVE THE HIGHEST 925MB WINDS OF 40 KTS AROUND 12Z
AND THEN DECREASING BY 18Z. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH MIXING
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO GET PRETTY WINDY AROUND SUNRISE.
THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE WINDS WILL LAST...AS ALTHOUGH MIXING
WILL BE GOOD WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE THE 925/850MB WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY AS IT IS AND CAN CANCEL IF
NEEDED.

TONIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS IN BUT ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN FROM MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN BY MONDAY.
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER WITH QPF BUT
GIVEN ALL MODELS TENDENCY TO OVERDO PRECIP LATELY WILL KEEP BEST
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN CWA WITH FAIRLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. WITH WARMER
925 TEMPS MOVING IN THINK THAT THE PRECIP WILL MOSTLY BE RAIN
ALTHOUGH A FEW FLAKES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EVEN WITH
PRECIP THINK WITH WEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD WARM
NICELY AND KEPT HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MID WEEK. MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S UNDER A WEAK SFC HIGH BUT TEMPS WILL
RECOVER NICELY FOR TUESDAY AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SETS UP SOUTHERLY WINDS. A VERY WARM AIR MASS
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS C BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF MIXING FROM THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUN DURING THE DAY KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S FOR TUESDAY WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND A RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN
CANADA. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LEADS TO A SPLIT FLOW.
UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS WAS A FASTER
SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE TRENDING
SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL REMOVE POPS ON FRI
AND WILL SHIFT INTO FRI NIGHT.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WED AND
WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY NORTH.

HIGH TEMPS INCREASED TWO OR THREE DEGREE FOR WED. LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPS FOR THU THROUGH SAT FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS AT ALL BUT KBJI AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND KBJI SHOULD SWITCH OVER IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. CIGS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY MVFR ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS HAVE
DROPPED DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES. RAIN IS IMPACTING KFAR AND
KBJI...BUT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE MORE WESTERN TAF SITES. CLEARING
LINE IS ALREADY APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND
KDVL SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING. CLOUDS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND THINK THAT ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...HOPPES
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 291433
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHRA CONFINED TO THE FAR EAST AND ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. ALL
PCPN SHOULD CLEAR THE FA BY LATE MORNING. ADJUSTED CLOUD TRENDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CLEARING WITH REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST OK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ADJUSTED POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AS IT SEEMS MOST OF THE
PRECIP HAS ENTERED OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. KEPT POPS A BIT
LONGER IN THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THINK WE ARE
PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH RAIN IN THAT AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...BUT SOME SPOTS
BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE FALLEN BACK BELOW. THINK THERE SHOULD BE
SOME MIXING AS THE SUN RISES AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...SO WILL LEAVE
THE ADVISORY AS IT IS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS AND PRECIP TODAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TOMORROW
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS THE POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO MOVE
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW HAS ENTERED THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA. MOST OF THE PRECIP THAT HAS FALLEN SO FAR HAS
BEEN EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERE IS
ALSO SOME RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT THE CLASSIC COMMA HEAD TYPE WRAP
AROUND. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MOSTLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE RADAR TRENDS. LOWERED POPS A BIT IN THE NORTHWEST WHICH SEEMS
THAT IT WILL GET BYPASSED...BUT KEPT CATEGORICAL/LIKELY IN THE
EAST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIP MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 16Z OR SO. THINK THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY
RAIN ALTHOUGH KEPT THE POWT TOOLS IDEA OF A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN
ON THE BACK EDGE.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ARE HITTING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN SOME AREAS...BUT OTHER RANDOM SPOTS ARE NOT BLOWING AS
HARD. MODELS ALL HAVE THE HIGHEST 925MB WINDS OF 40 KTS AROUND 12Z
AND THEN DECREASING BY 18Z. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH MIXING
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO GET PRETTY WINDY AROUND SUNRISE.
THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE WINDS WILL LAST...AS ALTHOUGH MIXING
WILL BE GOOD WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE THE 925/850MB WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY AS IT IS AND CAN CANCEL IF
NEEDED.

TONIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS IN BUT ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN FROM MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN BY MONDAY.
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER WITH QPF BUT
GIVEN ALL MODELS TENDENCY TO OVERDO PRECIP LATELY WILL KEEP BEST
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN CWA WITH FAIRLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. WITH WARMER
925 TEMPS MOVING IN THINK THAT THE PRECIP WILL MOSTLY BE RAIN
ALTHOUGH A FEW FLAKES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EVEN WITH
PRECIP THINK WITH WEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD WARM
NICELY AND KEPT HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MID WEEK. MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S UNDER A WEAK SFC HIGH BUT TEMPS WILL
RECOVER NICELY FOR TUESDAY AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SETS UP SOUTHERLY WINDS. A VERY WARM AIR MASS
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS C BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF MIXING FROM THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUN DURING THE DAY KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S FOR TUESDAY WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND A RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN
CANADA. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LEADS TO A SPLIT FLOW.
UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS WAS A FASTER
SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE TRENDING
SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL REMOVE POPS ON FRI
AND WILL SHIFT INTO FRI NIGHT.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WED AND
WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY NORTH.

HIGH TEMPS INCREASED TWO OR THREE DEGREE FOR WED. LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPS FOR THU THROUGH SAT FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS AT ALL BUT KBJI AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND KBJI SHOULD SWITCH OVER IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. CIGS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY MVFR ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS HAVE
DROPPED DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES. RAIN IS IMPACTING KFAR AND
KBJI...BUT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE MORE WESTERN TAF SITES. CLEARING
LINE IS ALREADY APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND
KDVL SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING. CLOUDS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND THINK THAT ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...HOPPES
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 291433
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHRA CONFINED TO THE FAR EAST AND ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. ALL
PCPN SHOULD CLEAR THE FA BY LATE MORNING. ADJUSTED CLOUD TRENDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CLEARING WITH REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST OK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ADJUSTED POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AS IT SEEMS MOST OF THE
PRECIP HAS ENTERED OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. KEPT POPS A BIT
LONGER IN THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THINK WE ARE
PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH RAIN IN THAT AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...BUT SOME SPOTS
BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE FALLEN BACK BELOW. THINK THERE SHOULD BE
SOME MIXING AS THE SUN RISES AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...SO WILL LEAVE
THE ADVISORY AS IT IS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS AND PRECIP TODAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TOMORROW
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS THE POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO MOVE
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW HAS ENTERED THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA. MOST OF THE PRECIP THAT HAS FALLEN SO FAR HAS
BEEN EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERE IS
ALSO SOME RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT THE CLASSIC COMMA HEAD TYPE WRAP
AROUND. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MOSTLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE RADAR TRENDS. LOWERED POPS A BIT IN THE NORTHWEST WHICH SEEMS
THAT IT WILL GET BYPASSED...BUT KEPT CATEGORICAL/LIKELY IN THE
EAST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIP MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 16Z OR SO. THINK THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY
RAIN ALTHOUGH KEPT THE POWT TOOLS IDEA OF A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN
ON THE BACK EDGE.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ARE HITTING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN SOME AREAS...BUT OTHER RANDOM SPOTS ARE NOT BLOWING AS
HARD. MODELS ALL HAVE THE HIGHEST 925MB WINDS OF 40 KTS AROUND 12Z
AND THEN DECREASING BY 18Z. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH MIXING
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO GET PRETTY WINDY AROUND SUNRISE.
THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE WINDS WILL LAST...AS ALTHOUGH MIXING
WILL BE GOOD WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE THE 925/850MB WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY AS IT IS AND CAN CANCEL IF
NEEDED.

TONIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS IN BUT ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN FROM MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN BY MONDAY.
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER WITH QPF BUT
GIVEN ALL MODELS TENDENCY TO OVERDO PRECIP LATELY WILL KEEP BEST
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN CWA WITH FAIRLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. WITH WARMER
925 TEMPS MOVING IN THINK THAT THE PRECIP WILL MOSTLY BE RAIN
ALTHOUGH A FEW FLAKES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EVEN WITH
PRECIP THINK WITH WEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD WARM
NICELY AND KEPT HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MID WEEK. MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S UNDER A WEAK SFC HIGH BUT TEMPS WILL
RECOVER NICELY FOR TUESDAY AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SETS UP SOUTHERLY WINDS. A VERY WARM AIR MASS
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS C BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF MIXING FROM THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUN DURING THE DAY KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S FOR TUESDAY WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND A RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN
CANADA. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LEADS TO A SPLIT FLOW.
UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS WAS A FASTER
SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE TRENDING
SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL REMOVE POPS ON FRI
AND WILL SHIFT INTO FRI NIGHT.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WED AND
WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY NORTH.

HIGH TEMPS INCREASED TWO OR THREE DEGREE FOR WED. LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPS FOR THU THROUGH SAT FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS AT ALL BUT KBJI AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND KBJI SHOULD SWITCH OVER IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. CIGS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY MVFR ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS HAVE
DROPPED DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES. RAIN IS IMPACTING KFAR AND
KBJI...BUT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE MORE WESTERN TAF SITES. CLEARING
LINE IS ALREADY APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND
KDVL SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING. CLOUDS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND THINK THAT ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...HOPPES
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 291433
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHRA CONFINED TO THE FAR EAST AND ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. ALL
PCPN SHOULD CLEAR THE FA BY LATE MORNING. ADJUSTED CLOUD TRENDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CLEARING WITH REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST OK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ADJUSTED POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AS IT SEEMS MOST OF THE
PRECIP HAS ENTERED OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. KEPT POPS A BIT
LONGER IN THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THINK WE ARE
PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH RAIN IN THAT AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...BUT SOME SPOTS
BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE FALLEN BACK BELOW. THINK THERE SHOULD BE
SOME MIXING AS THE SUN RISES AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...SO WILL LEAVE
THE ADVISORY AS IT IS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS AND PRECIP TODAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TOMORROW
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS THE POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO MOVE
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW HAS ENTERED THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA. MOST OF THE PRECIP THAT HAS FALLEN SO FAR HAS
BEEN EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERE IS
ALSO SOME RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT THE CLASSIC COMMA HEAD TYPE WRAP
AROUND. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MOSTLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE RADAR TRENDS. LOWERED POPS A BIT IN THE NORTHWEST WHICH SEEMS
THAT IT WILL GET BYPASSED...BUT KEPT CATEGORICAL/LIKELY IN THE
EAST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIP MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 16Z OR SO. THINK THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY
RAIN ALTHOUGH KEPT THE POWT TOOLS IDEA OF A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN
ON THE BACK EDGE.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ARE HITTING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN SOME AREAS...BUT OTHER RANDOM SPOTS ARE NOT BLOWING AS
HARD. MODELS ALL HAVE THE HIGHEST 925MB WINDS OF 40 KTS AROUND 12Z
AND THEN DECREASING BY 18Z. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH MIXING
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO GET PRETTY WINDY AROUND SUNRISE.
THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE WINDS WILL LAST...AS ALTHOUGH MIXING
WILL BE GOOD WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE THE 925/850MB WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY AS IT IS AND CAN CANCEL IF
NEEDED.

TONIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS IN BUT ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN FROM MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN BY MONDAY.
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER WITH QPF BUT
GIVEN ALL MODELS TENDENCY TO OVERDO PRECIP LATELY WILL KEEP BEST
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN CWA WITH FAIRLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. WITH WARMER
925 TEMPS MOVING IN THINK THAT THE PRECIP WILL MOSTLY BE RAIN
ALTHOUGH A FEW FLAKES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EVEN WITH
PRECIP THINK WITH WEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD WARM
NICELY AND KEPT HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MID WEEK. MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S UNDER A WEAK SFC HIGH BUT TEMPS WILL
RECOVER NICELY FOR TUESDAY AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SETS UP SOUTHERLY WINDS. A VERY WARM AIR MASS
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS C BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF MIXING FROM THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUN DURING THE DAY KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S FOR TUESDAY WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND A RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN
CANADA. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LEADS TO A SPLIT FLOW.
UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS WAS A FASTER
SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE TRENDING
SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL REMOVE POPS ON FRI
AND WILL SHIFT INTO FRI NIGHT.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WED AND
WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY NORTH.

HIGH TEMPS INCREASED TWO OR THREE DEGREE FOR WED. LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPS FOR THU THROUGH SAT FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS AT ALL BUT KBJI AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND KBJI SHOULD SWITCH OVER IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. CIGS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY MVFR ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS HAVE
DROPPED DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES. RAIN IS IMPACTING KFAR AND
KBJI...BUT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE MORE WESTERN TAF SITES. CLEARING
LINE IS ALREADY APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND
KDVL SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING. CLOUDS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND THINK THAT ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...HOPPES
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KBIS 291205
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
705 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. JUST KEPT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. TRIMMED PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS WELL. CLOUDS
CLEARING RAPIDLY. PRECIP WILL END SOUTHEAST CWA BY 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WIND DIMINISHING AND SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING. AFTER 9 AM CDT VFR
ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ020-034.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ005-013-022-
023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ042-045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 291205
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
705 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. JUST KEPT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. TRIMMED PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS WELL. CLOUDS
CLEARING RAPIDLY. PRECIP WILL END SOUTHEAST CWA BY 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WIND DIMINISHING AND SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING. AFTER 9 AM CDT VFR
ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ020-034.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ005-013-022-
023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ042-045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 291205
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
705 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. JUST KEPT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. TRIMMED PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS WELL. CLOUDS
CLEARING RAPIDLY. PRECIP WILL END SOUTHEAST CWA BY 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WIND DIMINISHING AND SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING. AFTER 9 AM CDT VFR
ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ020-034.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ005-013-022-
023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ042-045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 291205
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
705 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. JUST KEPT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. TRIMMED PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS WELL. CLOUDS
CLEARING RAPIDLY. PRECIP WILL END SOUTHEAST CWA BY 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WIND DIMINISHING AND SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING. AFTER 9 AM CDT VFR
ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ020-034.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ005-013-022-
023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ042-045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KFGF 291201
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ADJUSTED POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AS IT SEEMS MOST OF THE
PRECIP HAS ENTERED OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. KEPT POPS A BIT
LONGER IN THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THINK WE ARE
PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH RAIN IN THAT AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...BUT SOME SPOTS
BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE FALLEN BACK BELOW. THINK THERE SHOULD BE
SOME MIXING AS THE SUN RISES AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...SO WILL LEAVE
THE ADVISORY AS IT IS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS AND PRECIP TODAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TOMORROW
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS THE POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO MOVE
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW HAS ENTERED THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA. MOST OF THE PRECIP THAT HAS FALLEN SO FAR HAS
BEEN EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERE IS
ALSO SOME RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT THE CLASSIC COMMA HEAD TYPE WRAP
AROUND. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MOSTLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE RADAR TRENDS. LOWERED POPS A BIT IN THE NORTHWEST WHICH SEEMS
THAT IT WILL GET BYPASSED...BUT KEPT CATEGORICAL/LIKELY IN THE
EAST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIP MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 16Z OR SO. THINK THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY
RAIN ALTHOUGH KEPT THE POWT TOOLS IDEA OF A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN
ON THE BACK EDGE.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ARE HITTING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN SOME AREAS...BUT OTHER RANDOM SPOTS ARE NOT BLOWING AS
HARD. MODELS ALL HAVE THE HIGHEST 925MB WINDS OF 40 KTS AROUND 12Z
AND THEN DECREASING BY 18Z. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH MIXING
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO GET PRETTY WINDY AROUND SUNRISE.
THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE WINDS WILL LAST...AS ALTHOUGH MIXING
WILL BE GOOD WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE THE 925/850MB WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY AS IT IS AND CAN CANCEL IF
NEEDED.

TONIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS IN BUT ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN FROM MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN BY MONDAY.
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER WITH QPF BUT
GIVEN ALL MODELS TENDANCY TO OVERDO PRECIP LATELY WILL KEEP BEST
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN CWA WITH FAIRLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. WITH WARMER
925 TEMPS MOVING IN THINK THAT THE PRECIP WILL MOSTLY BE RAIN
ALTHOUGH A FEW FLAKES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EVEN WITH
PRECIP THINK WITH WEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD WARM
NICELY AND KEPT HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MID WEEK. MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S UNDER A WEAK SFC HIGH BUT TEMPS WILL
RECOVER NICELY FOR TUESDAY AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SETS UP SOUTHERLY WINDS. A VERY WARM AIR MASS
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS C BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF MIXING FROM THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUN DURING THE DAY KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S FOR TUESDAY WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND A RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN
CANADA. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LEADS TO A SPLIT FLOW.
UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS WAS A FASTER
SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE TRENDING
SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL REMOVE POPS ON FRI
AND WILL SHIFT INTO FRI NIGHT.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WED AND
WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY NORTH.

HIGH TEMPS INCREASED TWO OR THREE DEGREE FOR WED. LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPS FOR THU THROUGH SAT FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS AT ALL BUT KBJI AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND KBJI SHOULD SWITCH OVER IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. CIGS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY MVFR ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS HAVE
DROPPED DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES. RAIN IS IMPACTING KFAR AND
KBJI...BUT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE MORE WESTERN TAF SITES. CLEARING
LINE IS ALREADY APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND
KDVL SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING. CLOUDS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND THINK THAT ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...HOPPES
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 291201
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ADJUSTED POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AS IT SEEMS MOST OF THE
PRECIP HAS ENTERED OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. KEPT POPS A BIT
LONGER IN THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THINK WE ARE
PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH RAIN IN THAT AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...BUT SOME SPOTS
BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE FALLEN BACK BELOW. THINK THERE SHOULD BE
SOME MIXING AS THE SUN RISES AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...SO WILL LEAVE
THE ADVISORY AS IT IS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS AND PRECIP TODAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TOMORROW
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS THE POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO MOVE
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW HAS ENTERED THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA. MOST OF THE PRECIP THAT HAS FALLEN SO FAR HAS
BEEN EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERE IS
ALSO SOME RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT THE CLASSIC COMMA HEAD TYPE WRAP
AROUND. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MOSTLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE RADAR TRENDS. LOWERED POPS A BIT IN THE NORTHWEST WHICH SEEMS
THAT IT WILL GET BYPASSED...BUT KEPT CATEGORICAL/LIKELY IN THE
EAST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIP MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 16Z OR SO. THINK THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY
RAIN ALTHOUGH KEPT THE POWT TOOLS IDEA OF A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN
ON THE BACK EDGE.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ARE HITTING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN SOME AREAS...BUT OTHER RANDOM SPOTS ARE NOT BLOWING AS
HARD. MODELS ALL HAVE THE HIGHEST 925MB WINDS OF 40 KTS AROUND 12Z
AND THEN DECREASING BY 18Z. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH MIXING
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO GET PRETTY WINDY AROUND SUNRISE.
THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE WINDS WILL LAST...AS ALTHOUGH MIXING
WILL BE GOOD WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE THE 925/850MB WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY AS IT IS AND CAN CANCEL IF
NEEDED.

TONIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS IN BUT ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN FROM MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN BY MONDAY.
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER WITH QPF BUT
GIVEN ALL MODELS TENDANCY TO OVERDO PRECIP LATELY WILL KEEP BEST
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN CWA WITH FAIRLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. WITH WARMER
925 TEMPS MOVING IN THINK THAT THE PRECIP WILL MOSTLY BE RAIN
ALTHOUGH A FEW FLAKES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EVEN WITH
PRECIP THINK WITH WEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD WARM
NICELY AND KEPT HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MID WEEK. MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S UNDER A WEAK SFC HIGH BUT TEMPS WILL
RECOVER NICELY FOR TUESDAY AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SETS UP SOUTHERLY WINDS. A VERY WARM AIR MASS
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS C BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF MIXING FROM THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUN DURING THE DAY KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S FOR TUESDAY WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND A RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN
CANADA. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LEADS TO A SPLIT FLOW.
UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS WAS A FASTER
SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE TRENDING
SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL REMOVE POPS ON FRI
AND WILL SHIFT INTO FRI NIGHT.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WED AND
WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY NORTH.

HIGH TEMPS INCREASED TWO OR THREE DEGREE FOR WED. LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPS FOR THU THROUGH SAT FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS AT ALL BUT KBJI AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND KBJI SHOULD SWITCH OVER IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. CIGS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY MVFR ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS HAVE
DROPPED DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES. RAIN IS IMPACTING KFAR AND
KBJI...BUT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE MORE WESTERN TAF SITES. CLEARING
LINE IS ALREADY APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND
KDVL SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING. CLOUDS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND THINK THAT ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...HOPPES
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 291201
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ADJUSTED POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AS IT SEEMS MOST OF THE
PRECIP HAS ENTERED OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. KEPT POPS A BIT
LONGER IN THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THINK WE ARE
PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH RAIN IN THAT AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...BUT SOME SPOTS
BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE FALLEN BACK BELOW. THINK THERE SHOULD BE
SOME MIXING AS THE SUN RISES AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...SO WILL LEAVE
THE ADVISORY AS IT IS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS AND PRECIP TODAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TOMORROW
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS THE POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO MOVE
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW HAS ENTERED THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA. MOST OF THE PRECIP THAT HAS FALLEN SO FAR HAS
BEEN EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERE IS
ALSO SOME RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT THE CLASSIC COMMA HEAD TYPE WRAP
AROUND. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MOSTLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE RADAR TRENDS. LOWERED POPS A BIT IN THE NORTHWEST WHICH SEEMS
THAT IT WILL GET BYPASSED...BUT KEPT CATEGORICAL/LIKELY IN THE
EAST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIP MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 16Z OR SO. THINK THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY
RAIN ALTHOUGH KEPT THE POWT TOOLS IDEA OF A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN
ON THE BACK EDGE.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ARE HITTING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN SOME AREAS...BUT OTHER RANDOM SPOTS ARE NOT BLOWING AS
HARD. MODELS ALL HAVE THE HIGHEST 925MB WINDS OF 40 KTS AROUND 12Z
AND THEN DECREASING BY 18Z. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH MIXING
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO GET PRETTY WINDY AROUND SUNRISE.
THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE WINDS WILL LAST...AS ALTHOUGH MIXING
WILL BE GOOD WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE THE 925/850MB WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY AS IT IS AND CAN CANCEL IF
NEEDED.

TONIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS IN BUT ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN FROM MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN BY MONDAY.
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER WITH QPF BUT
GIVEN ALL MODELS TENDANCY TO OVERDO PRECIP LATELY WILL KEEP BEST
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN CWA WITH FAIRLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. WITH WARMER
925 TEMPS MOVING IN THINK THAT THE PRECIP WILL MOSTLY BE RAIN
ALTHOUGH A FEW FLAKES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EVEN WITH
PRECIP THINK WITH WEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD WARM
NICELY AND KEPT HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MID WEEK. MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S UNDER A WEAK SFC HIGH BUT TEMPS WILL
RECOVER NICELY FOR TUESDAY AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SETS UP SOUTHERLY WINDS. A VERY WARM AIR MASS
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS C BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF MIXING FROM THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUN DURING THE DAY KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S FOR TUESDAY WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND A RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN
CANADA. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LEADS TO A SPLIT FLOW.
UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS WAS A FASTER
SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE TRENDING
SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL REMOVE POPS ON FRI
AND WILL SHIFT INTO FRI NIGHT.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WED AND
WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY NORTH.

HIGH TEMPS INCREASED TWO OR THREE DEGREE FOR WED. LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPS FOR THU THROUGH SAT FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS AT ALL BUT KBJI AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND KBJI SHOULD SWITCH OVER IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. CIGS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY MVFR ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS HAVE
DROPPED DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES. RAIN IS IMPACTING KFAR AND
KBJI...BUT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE MORE WESTERN TAF SITES. CLEARING
LINE IS ALREADY APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND
KDVL SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING. CLOUDS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND THINK THAT ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...HOPPES
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 291201
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ADJUSTED POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AS IT SEEMS MOST OF THE
PRECIP HAS ENTERED OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. KEPT POPS A BIT
LONGER IN THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THINK WE ARE
PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH RAIN IN THAT AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...BUT SOME SPOTS
BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE FALLEN BACK BELOW. THINK THERE SHOULD BE
SOME MIXING AS THE SUN RISES AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...SO WILL LEAVE
THE ADVISORY AS IT IS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS AND PRECIP TODAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TOMORROW
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS THE POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO MOVE
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW HAS ENTERED THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA. MOST OF THE PRECIP THAT HAS FALLEN SO FAR HAS
BEEN EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERE IS
ALSO SOME RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT THE CLASSIC COMMA HEAD TYPE WRAP
AROUND. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MOSTLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE RADAR TRENDS. LOWERED POPS A BIT IN THE NORTHWEST WHICH SEEMS
THAT IT WILL GET BYPASSED...BUT KEPT CATEGORICAL/LIKELY IN THE
EAST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIP MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 16Z OR SO. THINK THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY
RAIN ALTHOUGH KEPT THE POWT TOOLS IDEA OF A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN
ON THE BACK EDGE.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ARE HITTING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN SOME AREAS...BUT OTHER RANDOM SPOTS ARE NOT BLOWING AS
HARD. MODELS ALL HAVE THE HIGHEST 925MB WINDS OF 40 KTS AROUND 12Z
AND THEN DECREASING BY 18Z. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH MIXING
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO GET PRETTY WINDY AROUND SUNRISE.
THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE WINDS WILL LAST...AS ALTHOUGH MIXING
WILL BE GOOD WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE THE 925/850MB WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY AS IT IS AND CAN CANCEL IF
NEEDED.

TONIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS IN BUT ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN FROM MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN BY MONDAY.
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER WITH QPF BUT
GIVEN ALL MODELS TENDANCY TO OVERDO PRECIP LATELY WILL KEEP BEST
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN CWA WITH FAIRLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. WITH WARMER
925 TEMPS MOVING IN THINK THAT THE PRECIP WILL MOSTLY BE RAIN
ALTHOUGH A FEW FLAKES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EVEN WITH
PRECIP THINK WITH WEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD WARM
NICELY AND KEPT HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MID WEEK. MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S UNDER A WEAK SFC HIGH BUT TEMPS WILL
RECOVER NICELY FOR TUESDAY AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SETS UP SOUTHERLY WINDS. A VERY WARM AIR MASS
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS C BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF MIXING FROM THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUN DURING THE DAY KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S FOR TUESDAY WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND A RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN
CANADA. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LEADS TO A SPLIT FLOW.
UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS WAS A FASTER
SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE TRENDING
SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL REMOVE POPS ON FRI
AND WILL SHIFT INTO FRI NIGHT.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WED AND
WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY NORTH.

HIGH TEMPS INCREASED TWO OR THREE DEGREE FOR WED. LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPS FOR THU THROUGH SAT FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS AT ALL BUT KBJI AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND KBJI SHOULD SWITCH OVER IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. CIGS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY MVFR ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS HAVE
DROPPED DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES. RAIN IS IMPACTING KFAR AND
KBJI...BUT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE MORE WESTERN TAF SITES. CLEARING
LINE IS ALREADY APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND
KDVL SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING. CLOUDS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND THINK THAT ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...HOPPES
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 290901
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS AND PRECIP TODAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TOMORROW
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS THE POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO MOVE
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW HAS ENTERED THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA. MOST OF THE PRECIP THAT HAS FALLEN SO FAR HAS
BEEN EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERE IS
ALSO SOME RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT THE CLASSIC COMMA HEAD TYPE WRAP
AROUND. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MOSTLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE RADAR TRENDS. LOWERED POPS A BIT IN THE NORTHWEST WHICH SEEMS
THAT IT WILL GET BYPASSED...BUT KEPT CATEGORICAL/LIKELY IN THE
EAST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIP MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 16Z OR SO. THINK THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY
RAIN ALTHOUGH KEPT THE POWT TOOLS IDEA OF A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN
ON THE BACK EDGE.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ARE HITTING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN SOME AREAS...BUT OTHER RANDOM SPOTS ARE NOT BLOWING AS
HARD. MODELS ALL HAVE THE HIGHEST 925MB WINDS OF 40 KTS AROUND 12Z
AND THEN DECREASING BY 18Z. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH MIXING
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO GET PRETTY WINDY AROUND SUNRISE.
THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE WINDS WILL LAST...AS ALTHOUGH MIXING
WILL BE GOOD WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE THE 925/850MB WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY AS IT IS AND CAN CANCEL IF
NEEDED.

TONIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS IN BUT ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN FROM MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN BY MONDAY.
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER WITH QPF BUT
GIVEN ALL MODELS TENDANCY TO OVERDO PRECIP LATELY WILL KEEP BEST
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN CWA WITH FAIRLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. WITH WARMER
925 TEMPS MOVING IN THINK THAT THE PRECIP WILL MOSTLY BE RAIN
ALTHOUGH A FEW FLAKES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EVEN WITH
PRECIP THINK WITH WEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD WARM
NICELY AND KEPT HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MID WEEK. MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S UNDER A WEAK SFC HIGH BUT TEMPS WILL
RECOVER NICELY FOR TUESDAY AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SETS UP SOUTHERLY WINDS. A VERY WARM AIR MASS
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS C BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF MIXING FROM THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUN DURING THE DAY KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S FOR TUESDAY WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND A RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN
CANADA. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LEADS TO A SPLIT FLOW.
UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS WAS A FASTER
SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE TRENDING
SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL REMOVE POPS ON FRI
AND WILL SHIFT INTO FRI NIGHT.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WED AND
WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY NORTH.

HIGH TEMPS INCREASED TWO OR THREE DEGREE FOR WED. LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPS FOR THU THROUGH SAT FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS (OR
EVEN IFR) ON THE BACKEDGE OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE WINDS TURN
NORTHWEST. SEEING AN AERA OF MIXED IFR/MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM IN SE
SASK AND THIS SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHEAST SO KEPT IDEA OF SOME LOWER
CIGS BUT NOT AS LONG AS SOME MODEL MOS GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE ISSUE
WILL BE WIND. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE RRV IN THAT 10-12Z PERIOD THEN BJI AREA BY 15Z. LOOK
FOR A PERIOD OF 25-40 KT WINDS SUNDAY MID MORNING TO MID
AFTN...LESSER IN THE MN TREES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...HOPPES
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 290901
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS AND PRECIP TODAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TOMORROW
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS THE POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO MOVE
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW HAS ENTERED THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA. MOST OF THE PRECIP THAT HAS FALLEN SO FAR HAS
BEEN EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERE IS
ALSO SOME RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT THE CLASSIC COMMA HEAD TYPE WRAP
AROUND. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MOSTLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE RADAR TRENDS. LOWERED POPS A BIT IN THE NORTHWEST WHICH SEEMS
THAT IT WILL GET BYPASSED...BUT KEPT CATEGORICAL/LIKELY IN THE
EAST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIP MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 16Z OR SO. THINK THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY
RAIN ALTHOUGH KEPT THE POWT TOOLS IDEA OF A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN
ON THE BACK EDGE.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ARE HITTING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN SOME AREAS...BUT OTHER RANDOM SPOTS ARE NOT BLOWING AS
HARD. MODELS ALL HAVE THE HIGHEST 925MB WINDS OF 40 KTS AROUND 12Z
AND THEN DECREASING BY 18Z. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH MIXING
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO GET PRETTY WINDY AROUND SUNRISE.
THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE WINDS WILL LAST...AS ALTHOUGH MIXING
WILL BE GOOD WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE THE 925/850MB WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY AS IT IS AND CAN CANCEL IF
NEEDED.

TONIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS IN BUT ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN FROM MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN BY MONDAY.
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER WITH QPF BUT
GIVEN ALL MODELS TENDANCY TO OVERDO PRECIP LATELY WILL KEEP BEST
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN CWA WITH FAIRLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. WITH WARMER
925 TEMPS MOVING IN THINK THAT THE PRECIP WILL MOSTLY BE RAIN
ALTHOUGH A FEW FLAKES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EVEN WITH
PRECIP THINK WITH WEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD WARM
NICELY AND KEPT HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MID WEEK. MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S UNDER A WEAK SFC HIGH BUT TEMPS WILL
RECOVER NICELY FOR TUESDAY AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SETS UP SOUTHERLY WINDS. A VERY WARM AIR MASS
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS C BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF MIXING FROM THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUN DURING THE DAY KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S FOR TUESDAY WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND A RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN
CANADA. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LEADS TO A SPLIT FLOW.
UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS WAS A FASTER
SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE TRENDING
SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL REMOVE POPS ON FRI
AND WILL SHIFT INTO FRI NIGHT.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WED AND
WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY NORTH.

HIGH TEMPS INCREASED TWO OR THREE DEGREE FOR WED. LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPS FOR THU THROUGH SAT FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS (OR
EVEN IFR) ON THE BACKEDGE OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE WINDS TURN
NORTHWEST. SEEING AN AERA OF MIXED IFR/MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM IN SE
SASK AND THIS SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHEAST SO KEPT IDEA OF SOME LOWER
CIGS BUT NOT AS LONG AS SOME MODEL MOS GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE ISSUE
WILL BE WIND. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE RRV IN THAT 10-12Z PERIOD THEN BJI AREA BY 15Z. LOOK
FOR A PERIOD OF 25-40 KT WINDS SUNDAY MID MORNING TO MID
AFTN...LESSER IN THE MN TREES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...HOPPES
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KBIS 290829
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
329 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS EXPECTED.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ002-003-010-
011-019>021-034.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001-009-017-018.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ








000
FXUS63 KBIS 290829
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
329 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS EXPECTED.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ002-003-010-
011-019>021-034.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001-009-017-018.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ









000
FXUS63 KBIS 290456
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1156 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.

PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. BEHIND THE TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WAS
JUST ENTERING FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
6MB/3HR OR 12MB/6HR PRESSURE RISE ACROSS MONTANA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 848 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AS OF 130 UTC...THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS THE AREA OF
STORMS PROPAGATES INTO A MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. THUS...ANTICIPATE THAT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
QUICKLY END BY 02-03 UTC. ELSEWHERE...A DRY SLOT IS OVERTAKING
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR. STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC FORCING WITH THIS SURGE OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH A MIXED
LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 850-800 MB WITH 45-55KTS TO MIX
SUPPORT THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
SHOULD A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. SOME CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM...WITH SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES NOTED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA...WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION SPREADING
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF 2 ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL ROUND
MOVING THOUGH PRE-FRONTAL AND THE SECONDARY ROUND COMING LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERALL REMAIN TAME...THOUGH WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS DEVELOP WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS.

PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES PUSH MAINLY THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BUT NUDGE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING STRONG AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. LATER IN THE EVENING COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY
THROUGHOUT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS FRONT AND SHORT WAVE PUSH
WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM.

NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST...AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE CURRENT 12Z MODEL
SUITE PROJECTS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THERE IS STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FOR WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE CONUS SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES NEARING 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE PROJECTED ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS
LOW AS 20 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL SWITCH TOWARDS THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
RESULT IN DRY LIGHTING ALONG WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002-003-010-011-
019>021-034.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-009-017-018.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-022-
023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 290456
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1156 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.

PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. BEHIND THE TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WAS
JUST ENTERING FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
6MB/3HR OR 12MB/6HR PRESSURE RISE ACROSS MONTANA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 848 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AS OF 130 UTC...THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS THE AREA OF
STORMS PROPAGATES INTO A MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. THUS...ANTICIPATE THAT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
QUICKLY END BY 02-03 UTC. ELSEWHERE...A DRY SLOT IS OVERTAKING
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR. STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC FORCING WITH THIS SURGE OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH A MIXED
LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 850-800 MB WITH 45-55KTS TO MIX
SUPPORT THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
SHOULD A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. SOME CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM...WITH SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES NOTED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA...WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION SPREADING
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF 2 ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL ROUND
MOVING THOUGH PRE-FRONTAL AND THE SECONDARY ROUND COMING LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERALL REMAIN TAME...THOUGH WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS DEVELOP WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS.

PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES PUSH MAINLY THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BUT NUDGE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING STRONG AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. LATER IN THE EVENING COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY
THROUGHOUT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS FRONT AND SHORT WAVE PUSH
WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM.

NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST...AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE CURRENT 12Z MODEL
SUITE PROJECTS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THERE IS STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FOR WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE CONUS SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES NEARING 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE PROJECTED ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS
LOW AS 20 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL SWITCH TOWARDS THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
RESULT IN DRY LIGHTING ALONG WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002-003-010-011-
019>021-034.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-009-017-018.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-022-
023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 290456
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1156 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.

PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. BEHIND THE TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WAS
JUST ENTERING FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
6MB/3HR OR 12MB/6HR PRESSURE RISE ACROSS MONTANA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 848 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AS OF 130 UTC...THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS THE AREA OF
STORMS PROPAGATES INTO A MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. THUS...ANTICIPATE THAT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
QUICKLY END BY 02-03 UTC. ELSEWHERE...A DRY SLOT IS OVERTAKING
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR. STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC FORCING WITH THIS SURGE OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH A MIXED
LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 850-800 MB WITH 45-55KTS TO MIX
SUPPORT THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
SHOULD A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. SOME CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM...WITH SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES NOTED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA...WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION SPREADING
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF 2 ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL ROUND
MOVING THOUGH PRE-FRONTAL AND THE SECONDARY ROUND COMING LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERALL REMAIN TAME...THOUGH WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS DEVELOP WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS.

PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES PUSH MAINLY THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BUT NUDGE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING STRONG AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. LATER IN THE EVENING COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY
THROUGHOUT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS FRONT AND SHORT WAVE PUSH
WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM.

NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST...AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE CURRENT 12Z MODEL
SUITE PROJECTS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THERE IS STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FOR WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE CONUS SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES NEARING 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE PROJECTED ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS
LOW AS 20 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL SWITCH TOWARDS THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
RESULT IN DRY LIGHTING ALONG WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002-003-010-011-
019>021-034.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-009-017-018.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-022-
023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 290452
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

GOING FCST OK. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AND INCOMING MODEL DATA THINK
ANY RISK OF -SN/IP MIX IS VERY VERY LOW AND SO REMOVED. OTHERWISE
TIMING LOOKING GOOD. PCPN AMOUNTS FROM HPC MIGHT BE A TAD HIGH AS
CLOUD BASES REMAIN PRETTY HIGH. BUT ANYTHING IS BETTER THAN
NOTHING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PCPN/TYPE/PHASE...WIND AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND USED A BLEND MAINLY WITH WIND SPEEDS.

POTENT SHORT WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CROSS FA LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE ALONG
WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS BORDER AREA AROUND 00Z WITH COLD FRONT
CATCHING UP LATER TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL THEN NEARLY BE THROUGH
THE FA BY 12Z SUNDAY. BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHRA ALONG
BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH WESTERN FA BY MID EVENING AND THE VALLEY BY
MIDNIGHT...CONTINUING EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES
APPROACH AN INCH LATER TONIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME MODERATE BUT LIKELY
SPOTTY RAIN AMOUNTS. SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACH ZERO OVER WEST
CENTRAL MN ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE. WHILE MODELS NOT
INDICATING ANY ELEVATED CAPE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
LTG STRIKES HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT INTO
FORECAST. AS COLUMN COOLS LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX HOWEVER NO ACCUMS EXPECTED AS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD FOR
THE MOST PART BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.

WIND WILL BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG/RISE FALL
SURFACE PRESSURE COUPLET ALONG WITH PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION AND
30-40+ KTS THROUGH DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS. WINDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER DVL BASIN SPREADING EAST
DURING THE EARLY AM. SUFFICIENT WIND EXPECTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS ALL BUT THE MORE WOODED AREA OVER THE FAR EASTERN
FA. THERMAL ADVECTION NOT LONG LIVED AND WITH CLEARING IN WAKE OF
CFP SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO SEE SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP
CLOSE TO FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CROSS FA ON MONDAY AND MODELS BECOMING A LITTLE
CLOSER ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF POTENTIAL PCPN...ACROSS THE NE
HALF OF THE FA. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
BUT COLUMN FAIRLY MILD.

COLUMN A BIT COOLER TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL RANGE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD
FROM THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...
USHERING IN COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WEDNESDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 DEGREES.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OR NORTH OF
THE REGION...LEAVING THE AREA WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE LOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
GFS IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE WA/OR COAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...FAVORING A WARMER
SATURDAY. CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS (OR
EVEN IFR) ON THE BACKEDGE OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE WINDS TURN
NORTHWEST. SEEING AN AERA OF MIXED IFR/MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM IN SE
SASK AND THIS SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHEAST SO KEPT IDEA OF SOME LOWER
CIGS BUT NOT AS LONG AS SOME MODEL MOS GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE ISSUE
WILL BE WIND. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE RRV IN THAT 10-12Z PERIOD THEN BJI AREA BY 15Z. LOOK
FOR A PERIOD OF 25-40 KT WINDS SUNDAY MID MORNING TO MID
AFTN...LESSER IN THE MN TREES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 290452
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

GOING FCST OK. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AND INCOMING MODEL DATA THINK
ANY RISK OF -SN/IP MIX IS VERY VERY LOW AND SO REMOVED. OTHERWISE
TIMING LOOKING GOOD. PCPN AMOUNTS FROM HPC MIGHT BE A TAD HIGH AS
CLOUD BASES REMAIN PRETTY HIGH. BUT ANYTHING IS BETTER THAN
NOTHING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PCPN/TYPE/PHASE...WIND AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND USED A BLEND MAINLY WITH WIND SPEEDS.

POTENT SHORT WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CROSS FA LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE ALONG
WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS BORDER AREA AROUND 00Z WITH COLD FRONT
CATCHING UP LATER TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL THEN NEARLY BE THROUGH
THE FA BY 12Z SUNDAY. BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHRA ALONG
BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH WESTERN FA BY MID EVENING AND THE VALLEY BY
MIDNIGHT...CONTINUING EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES
APPROACH AN INCH LATER TONIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME MODERATE BUT LIKELY
SPOTTY RAIN AMOUNTS. SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACH ZERO OVER WEST
CENTRAL MN ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE. WHILE MODELS NOT
INDICATING ANY ELEVATED CAPE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
LTG STRIKES HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT INTO
FORECAST. AS COLUMN COOLS LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX HOWEVER NO ACCUMS EXPECTED AS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD FOR
THE MOST PART BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.

WIND WILL BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG/RISE FALL
SURFACE PRESSURE COUPLET ALONG WITH PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION AND
30-40+ KTS THROUGH DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS. WINDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER DVL BASIN SPREADING EAST
DURING THE EARLY AM. SUFFICIENT WIND EXPECTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS ALL BUT THE MORE WOODED AREA OVER THE FAR EASTERN
FA. THERMAL ADVECTION NOT LONG LIVED AND WITH CLEARING IN WAKE OF
CFP SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO SEE SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP
CLOSE TO FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CROSS FA ON MONDAY AND MODELS BECOMING A LITTLE
CLOSER ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF POTENTIAL PCPN...ACROSS THE NE
HALF OF THE FA. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
BUT COLUMN FAIRLY MILD.

COLUMN A BIT COOLER TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL RANGE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD
FROM THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...
USHERING IN COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WEDNESDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 DEGREES.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OR NORTH OF
THE REGION...LEAVING THE AREA WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE LOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
GFS IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE WA/OR COAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...FAVORING A WARMER
SATURDAY. CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS (OR
EVEN IFR) ON THE BACKEDGE OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE WINDS TURN
NORTHWEST. SEEING AN AERA OF MIXED IFR/MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM IN SE
SASK AND THIS SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHEAST SO KEPT IDEA OF SOME LOWER
CIGS BUT NOT AS LONG AS SOME MODEL MOS GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE ISSUE
WILL BE WIND. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE RRV IN THAT 10-12Z PERIOD THEN BJI AREA BY 15Z. LOOK
FOR A PERIOD OF 25-40 KT WINDS SUNDAY MID MORNING TO MID
AFTN...LESSER IN THE MN TREES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 290452
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

GOING FCST OK. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AND INCOMING MODEL DATA THINK
ANY RISK OF -SN/IP MIX IS VERY VERY LOW AND SO REMOVED. OTHERWISE
TIMING LOOKING GOOD. PCPN AMOUNTS FROM HPC MIGHT BE A TAD HIGH AS
CLOUD BASES REMAIN PRETTY HIGH. BUT ANYTHING IS BETTER THAN
NOTHING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PCPN/TYPE/PHASE...WIND AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND USED A BLEND MAINLY WITH WIND SPEEDS.

POTENT SHORT WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CROSS FA LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE ALONG
WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS BORDER AREA AROUND 00Z WITH COLD FRONT
CATCHING UP LATER TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL THEN NEARLY BE THROUGH
THE FA BY 12Z SUNDAY. BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHRA ALONG
BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH WESTERN FA BY MID EVENING AND THE VALLEY BY
MIDNIGHT...CONTINUING EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES
APPROACH AN INCH LATER TONIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME MODERATE BUT LIKELY
SPOTTY RAIN AMOUNTS. SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACH ZERO OVER WEST
CENTRAL MN ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE. WHILE MODELS NOT
INDICATING ANY ELEVATED CAPE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
LTG STRIKES HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT INTO
FORECAST. AS COLUMN COOLS LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX HOWEVER NO ACCUMS EXPECTED AS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD FOR
THE MOST PART BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.

WIND WILL BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG/RISE FALL
SURFACE PRESSURE COUPLET ALONG WITH PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION AND
30-40+ KTS THROUGH DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS. WINDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER DVL BASIN SPREADING EAST
DURING THE EARLY AM. SUFFICIENT WIND EXPECTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS ALL BUT THE MORE WOODED AREA OVER THE FAR EASTERN
FA. THERMAL ADVECTION NOT LONG LIVED AND WITH CLEARING IN WAKE OF
CFP SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO SEE SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP
CLOSE TO FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CROSS FA ON MONDAY AND MODELS BECOMING A LITTLE
CLOSER ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF POTENTIAL PCPN...ACROSS THE NE
HALF OF THE FA. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
BUT COLUMN FAIRLY MILD.

COLUMN A BIT COOLER TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL RANGE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD
FROM THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...
USHERING IN COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WEDNESDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 DEGREES.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OR NORTH OF
THE REGION...LEAVING THE AREA WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE LOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
GFS IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE WA/OR COAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...FAVORING A WARMER
SATURDAY. CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS (OR
EVEN IFR) ON THE BACKEDGE OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE WINDS TURN
NORTHWEST. SEEING AN AERA OF MIXED IFR/MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM IN SE
SASK AND THIS SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHEAST SO KEPT IDEA OF SOME LOWER
CIGS BUT NOT AS LONG AS SOME MODEL MOS GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE ISSUE
WILL BE WIND. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE RRV IN THAT 10-12Z PERIOD THEN BJI AREA BY 15Z. LOOK
FOR A PERIOD OF 25-40 KT WINDS SUNDAY MID MORNING TO MID
AFTN...LESSER IN THE MN TREES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 290452
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

GOING FCST OK. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AND INCOMING MODEL DATA THINK
ANY RISK OF -SN/IP MIX IS VERY VERY LOW AND SO REMOVED. OTHERWISE
TIMING LOOKING GOOD. PCPN AMOUNTS FROM HPC MIGHT BE A TAD HIGH AS
CLOUD BASES REMAIN PRETTY HIGH. BUT ANYTHING IS BETTER THAN
NOTHING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PCPN/TYPE/PHASE...WIND AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND USED A BLEND MAINLY WITH WIND SPEEDS.

POTENT SHORT WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CROSS FA LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE ALONG
WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS BORDER AREA AROUND 00Z WITH COLD FRONT
CATCHING UP LATER TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL THEN NEARLY BE THROUGH
THE FA BY 12Z SUNDAY. BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHRA ALONG
BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH WESTERN FA BY MID EVENING AND THE VALLEY BY
MIDNIGHT...CONTINUING EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES
APPROACH AN INCH LATER TONIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME MODERATE BUT LIKELY
SPOTTY RAIN AMOUNTS. SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACH ZERO OVER WEST
CENTRAL MN ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE. WHILE MODELS NOT
INDICATING ANY ELEVATED CAPE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
LTG STRIKES HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT INTO
FORECAST. AS COLUMN COOLS LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX HOWEVER NO ACCUMS EXPECTED AS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD FOR
THE MOST PART BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.

WIND WILL BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG/RISE FALL
SURFACE PRESSURE COUPLET ALONG WITH PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION AND
30-40+ KTS THROUGH DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS. WINDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER DVL BASIN SPREADING EAST
DURING THE EARLY AM. SUFFICIENT WIND EXPECTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS ALL BUT THE MORE WOODED AREA OVER THE FAR EASTERN
FA. THERMAL ADVECTION NOT LONG LIVED AND WITH CLEARING IN WAKE OF
CFP SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO SEE SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP
CLOSE TO FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CROSS FA ON MONDAY AND MODELS BECOMING A LITTLE
CLOSER ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF POTENTIAL PCPN...ACROSS THE NE
HALF OF THE FA. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
BUT COLUMN FAIRLY MILD.

COLUMN A BIT COOLER TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL RANGE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD
FROM THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...
USHERING IN COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WEDNESDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 DEGREES.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OR NORTH OF
THE REGION...LEAVING THE AREA WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE LOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
GFS IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE WA/OR COAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...FAVORING A WARMER
SATURDAY. CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS (OR
EVEN IFR) ON THE BACKEDGE OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE WINDS TURN
NORTHWEST. SEEING AN AERA OF MIXED IFR/MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM IN SE
SASK AND THIS SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHEAST SO KEPT IDEA OF SOME LOWER
CIGS BUT NOT AS LONG AS SOME MODEL MOS GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE ISSUE
WILL BE WIND. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE RRV IN THAT 10-12Z PERIOD THEN BJI AREA BY 15Z. LOOK
FOR A PERIOD OF 25-40 KT WINDS SUNDAY MID MORNING TO MID
AFTN...LESSER IN THE MN TREES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 290452
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

GOING FCST OK. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AND INCOMING MODEL DATA THINK
ANY RISK OF -SN/IP MIX IS VERY VERY LOW AND SO REMOVED. OTHERWISE
TIMING LOOKING GOOD. PCPN AMOUNTS FROM HPC MIGHT BE A TAD HIGH AS
CLOUD BASES REMAIN PRETTY HIGH. BUT ANYTHING IS BETTER THAN
NOTHING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PCPN/TYPE/PHASE...WIND AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND USED A BLEND MAINLY WITH WIND SPEEDS.

POTENT SHORT WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CROSS FA LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE ALONG
WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS BORDER AREA AROUND 00Z WITH COLD FRONT
CATCHING UP LATER TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL THEN NEARLY BE THROUGH
THE FA BY 12Z SUNDAY. BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHRA ALONG
BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH WESTERN FA BY MID EVENING AND THE VALLEY BY
MIDNIGHT...CONTINUING EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES
APPROACH AN INCH LATER TONIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME MODERATE BUT LIKELY
SPOTTY RAIN AMOUNTS. SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACH ZERO OVER WEST
CENTRAL MN ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE. WHILE MODELS NOT
INDICATING ANY ELEVATED CAPE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
LTG STRIKES HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT INTO
FORECAST. AS COLUMN COOLS LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX HOWEVER NO ACCUMS EXPECTED AS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD FOR
THE MOST PART BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.

WIND WILL BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG/RISE FALL
SURFACE PRESSURE COUPLET ALONG WITH PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION AND
30-40+ KTS THROUGH DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS. WINDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER DVL BASIN SPREADING EAST
DURING THE EARLY AM. SUFFICIENT WIND EXPECTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS ALL BUT THE MORE WOODED AREA OVER THE FAR EASTERN
FA. THERMAL ADVECTION NOT LONG LIVED AND WITH CLEARING IN WAKE OF
CFP SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO SEE SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP
CLOSE TO FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CROSS FA ON MONDAY AND MODELS BECOMING A LITTLE
CLOSER ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF POTENTIAL PCPN...ACROSS THE NE
HALF OF THE FA. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
BUT COLUMN FAIRLY MILD.

COLUMN A BIT COOLER TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL RANGE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD
FROM THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...
USHERING IN COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WEDNESDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 DEGREES.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OR NORTH OF
THE REGION...LEAVING THE AREA WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE LOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
GFS IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE WA/OR COAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...FAVORING A WARMER
SATURDAY. CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS (OR
EVEN IFR) ON THE BACKEDGE OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE WINDS TURN
NORTHWEST. SEEING AN AERA OF MIXED IFR/MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM IN SE
SASK AND THIS SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHEAST SO KEPT IDEA OF SOME LOWER
CIGS BUT NOT AS LONG AS SOME MODEL MOS GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE ISSUE
WILL BE WIND. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE RRV IN THAT 10-12Z PERIOD THEN BJI AREA BY 15Z. LOOK
FOR A PERIOD OF 25-40 KT WINDS SUNDAY MID MORNING TO MID
AFTN...LESSER IN THE MN TREES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KBIS 290149
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
849 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AS OF 130 UTC...THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS THE AREA OF
STORMS PROPAGATES INTO A MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. THUS...ANTICIPATE THAT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
QUICKLY END BY 02-03 UTC. ELSEWHERE...A DRY SLOT IS OVERTAKING
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR. STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC FORCING WITH THIS SURGE OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH A MIXED
LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 850-800 MB WITH 45-55KTS TO MIX
SUPPORT THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
SHOULD A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. SOME CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM...WITH SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES NOTED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA...WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION SPREADING
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF 2 ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL ROUND
MOVING THOUGH PRE-FRONTAL AND THE SECONDARY ROUND COMING LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERALL REMAIN TAME...THOUGH WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS DEVELOP WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS.

PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES PUSH MAINLY THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BUT NUDGE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING STRONG AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. LATER IN THE EVENING COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY
THROUGHOUT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS FRONT AND SHORT WAVE PUSH
WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM.

NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST...AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE CURRENT 12Z MODEL
SUITE PROJECTS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THERE IS STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FOR WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE CONUS SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES NEARING 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE PROJECTED ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AS OF 145 UTC WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS
LOW AS 20 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL SWITCH TOWARDS THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
RESULT IN DRY LIGHTING ALONG WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002-003-010-011-
019>021-034.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-009-017-018.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 290149
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
849 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AS OF 130 UTC...THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS THE AREA OF
STORMS PROPAGATES INTO A MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. THUS...ANTICIPATE THAT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
QUICKLY END BY 02-03 UTC. ELSEWHERE...A DRY SLOT IS OVERTAKING
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR. STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC FORCING WITH THIS SURGE OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH A MIXED
LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 850-800 MB WITH 45-55KTS TO MIX
SUPPORT THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
SHOULD A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. SOME CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM...WITH SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES NOTED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA...WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION SPREADING
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF 2 ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL ROUND
MOVING THOUGH PRE-FRONTAL AND THE SECONDARY ROUND COMING LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERALL REMAIN TAME...THOUGH WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS DEVELOP WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS.

PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES PUSH MAINLY THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BUT NUDGE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING STRONG AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. LATER IN THE EVENING COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY
THROUGHOUT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS FRONT AND SHORT WAVE PUSH
WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM.

NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST...AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE CURRENT 12Z MODEL
SUITE PROJECTS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THERE IS STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FOR WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE CONUS SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES NEARING 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE PROJECTED ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AS OF 145 UTC WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS
LOW AS 20 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL SWITCH TOWARDS THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
RESULT IN DRY LIGHTING ALONG WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002-003-010-011-
019>021-034.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-009-017-018.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 290149
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
849 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AS OF 130 UTC...THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS THE AREA OF
STORMS PROPAGATES INTO A MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. THUS...ANTICIPATE THAT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
QUICKLY END BY 02-03 UTC. ELSEWHERE...A DRY SLOT IS OVERTAKING
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR. STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC FORCING WITH THIS SURGE OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH A MIXED
LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 850-800 MB WITH 45-55KTS TO MIX
SUPPORT THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
SHOULD A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. SOME CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM...WITH SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES NOTED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA...WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION SPREADING
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF 2 ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL ROUND
MOVING THOUGH PRE-FRONTAL AND THE SECONDARY ROUND COMING LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERALL REMAIN TAME...THOUGH WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS DEVELOP WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS.

PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES PUSH MAINLY THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BUT NUDGE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING STRONG AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. LATER IN THE EVENING COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY
THROUGHOUT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS FRONT AND SHORT WAVE PUSH
WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM.

NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST...AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE CURRENT 12Z MODEL
SUITE PROJECTS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THERE IS STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FOR WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE CONUS SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES NEARING 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE PROJECTED ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AS OF 145 UTC WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS
LOW AS 20 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL SWITCH TOWARDS THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
RESULT IN DRY LIGHTING ALONG WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002-003-010-011-
019>021-034.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-009-017-018.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 290149
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
849 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AS OF 130 UTC...THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS THE AREA OF
STORMS PROPAGATES INTO A MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. THUS...ANTICIPATE THAT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
QUICKLY END BY 02-03 UTC. ELSEWHERE...A DRY SLOT IS OVERTAKING
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR. STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC FORCING WITH THIS SURGE OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH A MIXED
LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 850-800 MB WITH 45-55KTS TO MIX
SUPPORT THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
SHOULD A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. SOME CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM...WITH SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES NOTED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA...WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION SPREADING
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF 2 ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL ROUND
MOVING THOUGH PRE-FRONTAL AND THE SECONDARY ROUND COMING LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERALL REMAIN TAME...THOUGH WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS DEVELOP WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS.

PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES PUSH MAINLY THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BUT NUDGE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING STRONG AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. LATER IN THE EVENING COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY
THROUGHOUT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS FRONT AND SHORT WAVE PUSH
WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM.

NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST...AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE CURRENT 12Z MODEL
SUITE PROJECTS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THERE IS STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FOR WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE CONUS SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES NEARING 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE PROJECTED ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AS OF 145 UTC WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS
LOW AS 20 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL SWITCH TOWARDS THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
RESULT IN DRY LIGHTING ALONG WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002-003-010-011-
019>021-034.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-009-017-018.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 290149
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
849 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AS OF 130 UTC...THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS THE AREA OF
STORMS PROPAGATES INTO A MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. THUS...ANTICIPATE THAT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
QUICKLY END BY 02-03 UTC. ELSEWHERE...A DRY SLOT IS OVERTAKING
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR. STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC FORCING WITH THIS SURGE OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH A MIXED
LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 850-800 MB WITH 45-55KTS TO MIX
SUPPORT THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
SHOULD A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. SOME CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM...WITH SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES NOTED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA...WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION SPREADING
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF 2 ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL ROUND
MOVING THOUGH PRE-FRONTAL AND THE SECONDARY ROUND COMING LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERALL REMAIN TAME...THOUGH WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS DEVELOP WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS.

PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES PUSH MAINLY THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BUT NUDGE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING STRONG AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. LATER IN THE EVENING COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY
THROUGHOUT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS FRONT AND SHORT WAVE PUSH
WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM.

NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST...AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE CURRENT 12Z MODEL
SUITE PROJECTS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THERE IS STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FOR WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE CONUS SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES NEARING 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE PROJECTED ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AS OF 145 UTC WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS
LOW AS 20 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL SWITCH TOWARDS THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
RESULT IN DRY LIGHTING ALONG WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002-003-010-011-
019>021-034.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-009-017-018.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 290149
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
849 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AS OF 130 UTC...THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS THE AREA OF
STORMS PROPAGATES INTO A MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. THUS...ANTICIPATE THAT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
QUICKLY END BY 02-03 UTC. ELSEWHERE...A DRY SLOT IS OVERTAKING
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR. STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC FORCING WITH THIS SURGE OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH A MIXED
LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 850-800 MB WITH 45-55KTS TO MIX
SUPPORT THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
SHOULD A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. SOME CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM...WITH SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES NOTED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA...WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION SPREADING
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF 2 ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL ROUND
MOVING THOUGH PRE-FRONTAL AND THE SECONDARY ROUND COMING LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERALL REMAIN TAME...THOUGH WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS DEVELOP WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS.

PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES PUSH MAINLY THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BUT NUDGE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING STRONG AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. LATER IN THE EVENING COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY
THROUGHOUT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS FRONT AND SHORT WAVE PUSH
WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM.

NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST...AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE CURRENT 12Z MODEL
SUITE PROJECTS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THERE IS STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FOR WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE CONUS SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES NEARING 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE PROJECTED ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AS OF 145 UTC WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS
LOW AS 20 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL SWITCH TOWARDS THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
RESULT IN DRY LIGHTING ALONG WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002-003-010-011-
019>021-034.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-009-017-018.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JJS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 290016
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
716 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS ENTERING WRN ND. BAND OF TSTMS FORMED AND LOCATED WEST OF
GARRISON TO NEAR GLEN ULLEN TO SOUTHEAST OF DICKINSON. INSTABILITY
ENOUGH IN THAT AREA FOR TSTMS...BUT THIS RIBBON OF UNSTABLE AIR
DOES WEAKEN BY 02Z AS IT GETS CLOSER TO OUR WRN FCST AREA. THUS
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER MENTION AS PREDOMINATE WEATHER. DID TWEEK
TEMPS JUST A TAD UP TONIGHT AND DOING SO WOULD LIMIT ANY -SN/RA
MIX TO FAR NE ND/NW MN FOR JUST A FEW HOURS 11Z-15Z PERIOD. KEPT
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND POPS OTHERWISE AS IT WAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PCPN/TYPE/PHASE...WIND AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND USED A BLEND MAINLY WITH WIND SPEEDS.

POTENT SHORT WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CROSS FA LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE ALONG
WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS BORDER AREA AROUND 00Z WITH COLD FRONT
CATCHING UP LATER TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL THEN NEARLY BE THROUGH
THE FA BY 12Z SUNDAY. BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHRA ALONG
BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH WESTERN FA BY MID EVENING AND THE VALLEY BY
MIDNIGHT...CONTINUING EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES
APPROACH AN INCH LATER TONIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME MODERATE BUT LIKELY
SPOTTY RAIN AMOUNTS. SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACH ZERO OVER WEST
CENTRAL MN ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE. WHILE MODELS NOT
INDICATING ANY ELEVATED CAPE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
LTG STRIKES HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT INTO
FORECAST. AS COLUMN COOLS LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX HOWEVER NO ACCUMS EXPECTED AS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD FOR
THE MOST PART BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.

WIND WILL BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG/RISE FALL
SURFACE PRESSURE COUPLET ALONG WITH PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION AND
30-40+ KTS THROUGH DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS. WINDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER DVL BASIN SPREADING EAST
DURING THE EARLY AM. SUFFICIENT WIND EXPECTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS ALL BUT THE MORE WOODED AREA OVER THE FAR EASTERN
FA. THERMAL ADVECTION NOT LONG LIVED AND WITH CLEARING IN WAKE OF
CFP SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO SEE SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP
CLOSE TO FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CROSS FA ON MONDAY AND MODELS BECOMING A LITTLE
CLOSER ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF POTENTIAL PCPN...ACROSS THE NE
HALF OF THE FA. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
BUT COLUMN FAIRLY MILD.

COLUMN A BIT COOLER TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL RANGE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD
FROM THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...
USHERING IN COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WEDNESDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 DEGREES.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OR NORTH OF
THE REGION...LEAVING THE AREA WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE LOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
GFS IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE WA/OR COAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...FAVORING A WARMER
SATURDAY. CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. KEPT TIMING PER
PREVIOUS 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. HOWEVER BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS BEHIND
THE RAIN SHOWERS DIDNT GO AS LOW OF CEILINGS AS SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS PSBL ON BACKSIDE
OF SHOWERS ONCE COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. CLEARING WILL WORK IN
PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH A STRONG
NORTHWEST WIND 25 TO 40 KTS....20 TO 30 KTS IN BEMIDJI AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 290016
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
716 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS ENTERING WRN ND. BAND OF TSTMS FORMED AND LOCATED WEST OF
GARRISON TO NEAR GLEN ULLEN TO SOUTHEAST OF DICKINSON. INSTABILITY
ENOUGH IN THAT AREA FOR TSTMS...BUT THIS RIBBON OF UNSTABLE AIR
DOES WEAKEN BY 02Z AS IT GETS CLOSER TO OUR WRN FCST AREA. THUS
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER MENTION AS PREDOMINATE WEATHER. DID TWEEK
TEMPS JUST A TAD UP TONIGHT AND DOING SO WOULD LIMIT ANY -SN/RA
MIX TO FAR NE ND/NW MN FOR JUST A FEW HOURS 11Z-15Z PERIOD. KEPT
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND POPS OTHERWISE AS IT WAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PCPN/TYPE/PHASE...WIND AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND USED A BLEND MAINLY WITH WIND SPEEDS.

POTENT SHORT WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CROSS FA LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE ALONG
WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS BORDER AREA AROUND 00Z WITH COLD FRONT
CATCHING UP LATER TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL THEN NEARLY BE THROUGH
THE FA BY 12Z SUNDAY. BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHRA ALONG
BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH WESTERN FA BY MID EVENING AND THE VALLEY BY
MIDNIGHT...CONTINUING EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES
APPROACH AN INCH LATER TONIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME MODERATE BUT LIKELY
SPOTTY RAIN AMOUNTS. SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACH ZERO OVER WEST
CENTRAL MN ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE. WHILE MODELS NOT
INDICATING ANY ELEVATED CAPE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
LTG STRIKES HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT INTO
FORECAST. AS COLUMN COOLS LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX HOWEVER NO ACCUMS EXPECTED AS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD FOR
THE MOST PART BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.

WIND WILL BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG/RISE FALL
SURFACE PRESSURE COUPLET ALONG WITH PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION AND
30-40+ KTS THROUGH DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS. WINDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER DVL BASIN SPREADING EAST
DURING THE EARLY AM. SUFFICIENT WIND EXPECTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS ALL BUT THE MORE WOODED AREA OVER THE FAR EASTERN
FA. THERMAL ADVECTION NOT LONG LIVED AND WITH CLEARING IN WAKE OF
CFP SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO SEE SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP
CLOSE TO FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CROSS FA ON MONDAY AND MODELS BECOMING A LITTLE
CLOSER ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF POTENTIAL PCPN...ACROSS THE NE
HALF OF THE FA. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
BUT COLUMN FAIRLY MILD.

COLUMN A BIT COOLER TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL RANGE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD
FROM THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...
USHERING IN COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WEDNESDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 DEGREES.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OR NORTH OF
THE REGION...LEAVING THE AREA WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE LOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
GFS IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE WA/OR COAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...FAVORING A WARMER
SATURDAY. CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. KEPT TIMING PER
PREVIOUS 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. HOWEVER BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS BEHIND
THE RAIN SHOWERS DIDNT GO AS LOW OF CEILINGS AS SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS PSBL ON BACKSIDE
OF SHOWERS ONCE COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. CLEARING WILL WORK IN
PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH A STRONG
NORTHWEST WIND 25 TO 40 KTS....20 TO 30 KTS IN BEMIDJI AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 290016
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
716 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS ENTERING WRN ND. BAND OF TSTMS FORMED AND LOCATED WEST OF
GARRISON TO NEAR GLEN ULLEN TO SOUTHEAST OF DICKINSON. INSTABILITY
ENOUGH IN THAT AREA FOR TSTMS...BUT THIS RIBBON OF UNSTABLE AIR
DOES WEAKEN BY 02Z AS IT GETS CLOSER TO OUR WRN FCST AREA. THUS
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER MENTION AS PREDOMINATE WEATHER. DID TWEEK
TEMPS JUST A TAD UP TONIGHT AND DOING SO WOULD LIMIT ANY -SN/RA
MIX TO FAR NE ND/NW MN FOR JUST A FEW HOURS 11Z-15Z PERIOD. KEPT
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND POPS OTHERWISE AS IT WAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PCPN/TYPE/PHASE...WIND AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND USED A BLEND MAINLY WITH WIND SPEEDS.

POTENT SHORT WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CROSS FA LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE ALONG
WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS BORDER AREA AROUND 00Z WITH COLD FRONT
CATCHING UP LATER TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL THEN NEARLY BE THROUGH
THE FA BY 12Z SUNDAY. BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHRA ALONG
BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH WESTERN FA BY MID EVENING AND THE VALLEY BY
MIDNIGHT...CONTINUING EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES
APPROACH AN INCH LATER TONIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME MODERATE BUT LIKELY
SPOTTY RAIN AMOUNTS. SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACH ZERO OVER WEST
CENTRAL MN ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE. WHILE MODELS NOT
INDICATING ANY ELEVATED CAPE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
LTG STRIKES HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT INTO
FORECAST. AS COLUMN COOLS LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX HOWEVER NO ACCUMS EXPECTED AS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD FOR
THE MOST PART BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.

WIND WILL BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG/RISE FALL
SURFACE PRESSURE COUPLET ALONG WITH PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION AND
30-40+ KTS THROUGH DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS. WINDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER DVL BASIN SPREADING EAST
DURING THE EARLY AM. SUFFICIENT WIND EXPECTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS ALL BUT THE MORE WOODED AREA OVER THE FAR EASTERN
FA. THERMAL ADVECTION NOT LONG LIVED AND WITH CLEARING IN WAKE OF
CFP SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO SEE SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP
CLOSE TO FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CROSS FA ON MONDAY AND MODELS BECOMING A LITTLE
CLOSER ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF POTENTIAL PCPN...ACROSS THE NE
HALF OF THE FA. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
BUT COLUMN FAIRLY MILD.

COLUMN A BIT COOLER TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL RANGE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD
FROM THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...
USHERING IN COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WEDNESDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 DEGREES.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OR NORTH OF
THE REGION...LEAVING THE AREA WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE LOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
GFS IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE WA/OR COAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...FAVORING A WARMER
SATURDAY. CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. KEPT TIMING PER
PREVIOUS 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. HOWEVER BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS BEHIND
THE RAIN SHOWERS DIDNT GO AS LOW OF CEILINGS AS SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS PSBL ON BACKSIDE
OF SHOWERS ONCE COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. CLEARING WILL WORK IN
PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH A STRONG
NORTHWEST WIND 25 TO 40 KTS....20 TO 30 KTS IN BEMIDJI AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 290016
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
716 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS ENTERING WRN ND. BAND OF TSTMS FORMED AND LOCATED WEST OF
GARRISON TO NEAR GLEN ULLEN TO SOUTHEAST OF DICKINSON. INSTABILITY
ENOUGH IN THAT AREA FOR TSTMS...BUT THIS RIBBON OF UNSTABLE AIR
DOES WEAKEN BY 02Z AS IT GETS CLOSER TO OUR WRN FCST AREA. THUS
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER MENTION AS PREDOMINATE WEATHER. DID TWEEK
TEMPS JUST A TAD UP TONIGHT AND DOING SO WOULD LIMIT ANY -SN/RA
MIX TO FAR NE ND/NW MN FOR JUST A FEW HOURS 11Z-15Z PERIOD. KEPT
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND POPS OTHERWISE AS IT WAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PCPN/TYPE/PHASE...WIND AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND USED A BLEND MAINLY WITH WIND SPEEDS.

POTENT SHORT WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CROSS FA LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE ALONG
WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS BORDER AREA AROUND 00Z WITH COLD FRONT
CATCHING UP LATER TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL THEN NEARLY BE THROUGH
THE FA BY 12Z SUNDAY. BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHRA ALONG
BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH WESTERN FA BY MID EVENING AND THE VALLEY BY
MIDNIGHT...CONTINUING EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES
APPROACH AN INCH LATER TONIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME MODERATE BUT LIKELY
SPOTTY RAIN AMOUNTS. SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACH ZERO OVER WEST
CENTRAL MN ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE. WHILE MODELS NOT
INDICATING ANY ELEVATED CAPE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
LTG STRIKES HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT INTO
FORECAST. AS COLUMN COOLS LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX HOWEVER NO ACCUMS EXPECTED AS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD FOR
THE MOST PART BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.

WIND WILL BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG/RISE FALL
SURFACE PRESSURE COUPLET ALONG WITH PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION AND
30-40+ KTS THROUGH DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS. WINDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER DVL BASIN SPREADING EAST
DURING THE EARLY AM. SUFFICIENT WIND EXPECTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS ALL BUT THE MORE WOODED AREA OVER THE FAR EASTERN
FA. THERMAL ADVECTION NOT LONG LIVED AND WITH CLEARING IN WAKE OF
CFP SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO SEE SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP
CLOSE TO FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CROSS FA ON MONDAY AND MODELS BECOMING A LITTLE
CLOSER ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF POTENTIAL PCPN...ACROSS THE NE
HALF OF THE FA. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
BUT COLUMN FAIRLY MILD.

COLUMN A BIT COOLER TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL RANGE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD
FROM THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...
USHERING IN COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WEDNESDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 DEGREES.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OR NORTH OF
THE REGION...LEAVING THE AREA WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE LOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
GFS IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE WA/OR COAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...FAVORING A WARMER
SATURDAY. CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. KEPT TIMING PER
PREVIOUS 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. HOWEVER BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS BEHIND
THE RAIN SHOWERS DIDNT GO AS LOW OF CEILINGS AS SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS PSBL ON BACKSIDE
OF SHOWERS ONCE COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. CLEARING WILL WORK IN
PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH A STRONG
NORTHWEST WIND 25 TO 40 KTS....20 TO 30 KTS IN BEMIDJI AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 290016
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
716 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS ENTERING WRN ND. BAND OF TSTMS FORMED AND LOCATED WEST OF
GARRISON TO NEAR GLEN ULLEN TO SOUTHEAST OF DICKINSON. INSTABILITY
ENOUGH IN THAT AREA FOR TSTMS...BUT THIS RIBBON OF UNSTABLE AIR
DOES WEAKEN BY 02Z AS IT GETS CLOSER TO OUR WRN FCST AREA. THUS
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER MENTION AS PREDOMINATE WEATHER. DID TWEEK
TEMPS JUST A TAD UP TONIGHT AND DOING SO WOULD LIMIT ANY -SN/RA
MIX TO FAR NE ND/NW MN FOR JUST A FEW HOURS 11Z-15Z PERIOD. KEPT
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND POPS OTHERWISE AS IT WAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PCPN/TYPE/PHASE...WIND AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND USED A BLEND MAINLY WITH WIND SPEEDS.

POTENT SHORT WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CROSS FA LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE ALONG
WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS BORDER AREA AROUND 00Z WITH COLD FRONT
CATCHING UP LATER TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL THEN NEARLY BE THROUGH
THE FA BY 12Z SUNDAY. BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHRA ALONG
BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH WESTERN FA BY MID EVENING AND THE VALLEY BY
MIDNIGHT...CONTINUING EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES
APPROACH AN INCH LATER TONIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME MODERATE BUT LIKELY
SPOTTY RAIN AMOUNTS. SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACH ZERO OVER WEST
CENTRAL MN ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE. WHILE MODELS NOT
INDICATING ANY ELEVATED CAPE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
LTG STRIKES HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT INTO
FORECAST. AS COLUMN COOLS LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX HOWEVER NO ACCUMS EXPECTED AS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD FOR
THE MOST PART BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.

WIND WILL BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG/RISE FALL
SURFACE PRESSURE COUPLET ALONG WITH PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION AND
30-40+ KTS THROUGH DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS. WINDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER DVL BASIN SPREADING EAST
DURING THE EARLY AM. SUFFICIENT WIND EXPECTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS ALL BUT THE MORE WOODED AREA OVER THE FAR EASTERN
FA. THERMAL ADVECTION NOT LONG LIVED AND WITH CLEARING IN WAKE OF
CFP SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO SEE SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP
CLOSE TO FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CROSS FA ON MONDAY AND MODELS BECOMING A LITTLE
CLOSER ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF POTENTIAL PCPN...ACROSS THE NE
HALF OF THE FA. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
BUT COLUMN FAIRLY MILD.

COLUMN A BIT COOLER TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL RANGE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD
FROM THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...
USHERING IN COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WEDNESDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 DEGREES.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OR NORTH OF
THE REGION...LEAVING THE AREA WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE LOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
GFS IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE WA/OR COAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...FAVORING A WARMER
SATURDAY. CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. KEPT TIMING PER
PREVIOUS 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. HOWEVER BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS BEHIND
THE RAIN SHOWERS DIDNT GO AS LOW OF CEILINGS AS SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS PSBL ON BACKSIDE
OF SHOWERS ONCE COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. CLEARING WILL WORK IN
PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH A STRONG
NORTHWEST WIND 25 TO 40 KTS....20 TO 30 KTS IN BEMIDJI AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 290016
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
716 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS ENTERING WRN ND. BAND OF TSTMS FORMED AND LOCATED WEST OF
GARRISON TO NEAR GLEN ULLEN TO SOUTHEAST OF DICKINSON. INSTABILITY
ENOUGH IN THAT AREA FOR TSTMS...BUT THIS RIBBON OF UNSTABLE AIR
DOES WEAKEN BY 02Z AS IT GETS CLOSER TO OUR WRN FCST AREA. THUS
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER MENTION AS PREDOMINATE WEATHER. DID TWEEK
TEMPS JUST A TAD UP TONIGHT AND DOING SO WOULD LIMIT ANY -SN/RA
MIX TO FAR NE ND/NW MN FOR JUST A FEW HOURS 11Z-15Z PERIOD. KEPT
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND POPS OTHERWISE AS IT WAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PCPN/TYPE/PHASE...WIND AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND USED A BLEND MAINLY WITH WIND SPEEDS.

POTENT SHORT WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CROSS FA LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE ALONG
WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS BORDER AREA AROUND 00Z WITH COLD FRONT
CATCHING UP LATER TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL THEN NEARLY BE THROUGH
THE FA BY 12Z SUNDAY. BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHRA ALONG
BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH WESTERN FA BY MID EVENING AND THE VALLEY BY
MIDNIGHT...CONTINUING EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES
APPROACH AN INCH LATER TONIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME MODERATE BUT LIKELY
SPOTTY RAIN AMOUNTS. SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACH ZERO OVER WEST
CENTRAL MN ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE. WHILE MODELS NOT
INDICATING ANY ELEVATED CAPE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
LTG STRIKES HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT INTO
FORECAST. AS COLUMN COOLS LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX HOWEVER NO ACCUMS EXPECTED AS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD FOR
THE MOST PART BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.

WIND WILL BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG/RISE FALL
SURFACE PRESSURE COUPLET ALONG WITH PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION AND
30-40+ KTS THROUGH DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS. WINDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER DVL BASIN SPREADING EAST
DURING THE EARLY AM. SUFFICIENT WIND EXPECTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS ALL BUT THE MORE WOODED AREA OVER THE FAR EASTERN
FA. THERMAL ADVECTION NOT LONG LIVED AND WITH CLEARING IN WAKE OF
CFP SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO SEE SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP
CLOSE TO FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CROSS FA ON MONDAY AND MODELS BECOMING A LITTLE
CLOSER ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF POTENTIAL PCPN...ACROSS THE NE
HALF OF THE FA. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
BUT COLUMN FAIRLY MILD.

COLUMN A BIT COOLER TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL RANGE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD
FROM THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...
USHERING IN COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WEDNESDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 DEGREES.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OR NORTH OF
THE REGION...LEAVING THE AREA WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE LOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
GFS IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE WA/OR COAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...FAVORING A WARMER
SATURDAY. CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. KEPT TIMING PER
PREVIOUS 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. HOWEVER BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS BEHIND
THE RAIN SHOWERS DIDNT GO AS LOW OF CEILINGS AS SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS PSBL ON BACKSIDE
OF SHOWERS ONCE COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. CLEARING WILL WORK IN
PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH A STRONG
NORTHWEST WIND 25 TO 40 KTS....20 TO 30 KTS IN BEMIDJI AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KBIS 282041
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. SOME CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM...WITH SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES NOTED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA...WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION SPREADING
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF 2 ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL ROUND
MOVING THOUGH PRE-FRONTAL AND THE SECONDARY ROUND COMING LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERALL REMAIN TAME...THOUGH WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS DEVELOP WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS.

PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES PUSH MAINLY THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BUT NUDGE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING STRONG AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. LATER IN THE EVENING COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY
THROUGHOUT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS FRONT AND SHORT WAVE PUSH
WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM.

NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST...AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE CURRENT 12Z MODEL
SUITE PROJECTS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THERE IS STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FOR WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE CONUS SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES NEARING 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE PROJECTED ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS OVER KJMS WILL ERODE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LCL -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN AREAS...WITH CHANCES SPREADING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES IN TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY. AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE
SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS
LOW AS 20 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL SWITCH TOWARDS THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
RESULT IN DRY LIGHTING ALONG WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
NDZ002-003-010-011-019>021-034.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031-032-040-
041-043-044.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-009-017-018.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...JJS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 282041
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. SOME CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM...WITH SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES NOTED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA...WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION SPREADING
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF 2 ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL ROUND
MOVING THOUGH PRE-FRONTAL AND THE SECONDARY ROUND COMING LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERALL REMAIN TAME...THOUGH WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS DEVELOP WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS.

PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES PUSH MAINLY THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BUT NUDGE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING STRONG AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. LATER IN THE EVENING COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY
THROUGHOUT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS FRONT AND SHORT WAVE PUSH
WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM.

NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST...AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE CURRENT 12Z MODEL
SUITE PROJECTS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THERE IS STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FOR WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE CONUS SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES NEARING 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE PROJECTED ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS OVER KJMS WILL ERODE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LCL -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN AREAS...WITH CHANCES SPREADING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES IN TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY. AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE
SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS
LOW AS 20 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL SWITCH TOWARDS THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
RESULT IN DRY LIGHTING ALONG WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
NDZ002-003-010-011-019>021-034.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031-032-040-
041-043-044.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-009-017-018.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...JJS










000
FXUS63 KBIS 282041
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. SOME CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM...WITH SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES NOTED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA...WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION SPREADING
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF 2 ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL ROUND
MOVING THOUGH PRE-FRONTAL AND THE SECONDARY ROUND COMING LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERALL REMAIN TAME...THOUGH WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS DEVELOP WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS.

PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES PUSH MAINLY THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BUT NUDGE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING STRONG AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. LATER IN THE EVENING COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY
THROUGHOUT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS FRONT AND SHORT WAVE PUSH
WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM.

NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST...AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE CURRENT 12Z MODEL
SUITE PROJECTS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THERE IS STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FOR WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE CONUS SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES NEARING 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE PROJECTED ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS OVER KJMS WILL ERODE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LCL -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN AREAS...WITH CHANCES SPREADING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES IN TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY. AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE
SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS
LOW AS 20 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL SWITCH TOWARDS THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
RESULT IN DRY LIGHTING ALONG WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
NDZ002-003-010-011-019>021-034.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031-032-040-
041-043-044.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-009-017-018.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...JJS









000
FXUS63 KFGF 282016
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
316 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PCPN/TYPE/PHASE...WIND AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND USED A BLEND MAINLY WITH WIND SPEEDS.

POTENT SHORT WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CROSS FA LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE ALONG
WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS BORDER AREA AROUND 00Z WITH COLD FRONT
CATCHING UP LATER TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL THEN NEARLY BE THROUGH
THE FA BY 12Z SUNDAY. BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHRA ALONG
BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH WESTERN FA BY MID EVENING AND THE VALLEY BY
MIDNIGHT...CONTINUING EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES
APPROACH AN INCH LATER TONIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME MODERATE BUT LIKELY
SPOTTY RAIN AMOUNTS. SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACH ZERO OVER WEST
CENTRAL MN ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE. WHILE MODELS NOT
INDICATING ANY ELEVATED CAPE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
LTG STRIKES HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT INTO
FORECAST. AS COLUMN COOLS LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX HOWEVER NO ACCUMS EXPECTED AS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD FOR
THE MOST PART BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.

WIND WILL BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG/RISE FALL
SURFACE PRESSURE COUPLET ALONG WITH PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION AND
30-40+ KTS THROUGH DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS. WINDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER DVL BASIN SPREADING EAST
DURING THE EARLY AM. SUFFICIENT WIND EXPECTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS ALL BUT THE MORE WOODED AREA OVER THE FAR EASTERN
FA. THERMAL ADVECTION NOT LONG LIVED AND WITH CLEARING IN WAKE OF
CFP SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO SEE SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP
CLOSE TO FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CROSS FA ON MONDAY AND MODELS BECOMING A LITTLE
CLOSER ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF POTENTIAL PCPN...ACROSS THE NE
HALF OF THE FA. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
BUT COLUMN FAIRLY MILD.

COLUMN A BIT COOLER TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL RANGE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD
FROM THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...
USHERING IN COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WEDNESDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 DEGREES.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OR NORTH OF
THE REGION...LEAVING THE AREA WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE LOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
GFS IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE WA/OR COAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...FAVORING A WARMER
SATURDAY. CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN STEADILY
ERODING. HOWEVER...SOME A CUMULUS FIELD HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE CUMULUS THICKENING THE MOST AT KDVL
PER NAM SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE. BELIEVE CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER. OTHERWISE KFAR AND KGFK COULD SEE SOME LOW LEVEL
CU AS WELL...BUT CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS ONLY SCT COVERAGE. WILL
MONITOR AND UPDATE IF NEEDED.

TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE TWO DISTINCT PERIODS OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT TYPE TO BE RAIN BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD CHANGE TO SNOW BRIEFLY RIGHT BEFORE
ENDING. ALSO...THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THE
FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS...SO LIGHTNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT
IS RATHER UNLIKELY. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE S TO
THE NNW AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 282016
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
316 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PCPN/TYPE/PHASE...WIND AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND USED A BLEND MAINLY WITH WIND SPEEDS.

POTENT SHORT WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CROSS FA LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE ALONG
WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS BORDER AREA AROUND 00Z WITH COLD FRONT
CATCHING UP LATER TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL THEN NEARLY BE THROUGH
THE FA BY 12Z SUNDAY. BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHRA ALONG
BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH WESTERN FA BY MID EVENING AND THE VALLEY BY
MIDNIGHT...CONTINUING EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES
APPROACH AN INCH LATER TONIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME MODERATE BUT LIKELY
SPOTTY RAIN AMOUNTS. SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACH ZERO OVER WEST
CENTRAL MN ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE. WHILE MODELS NOT
INDICATING ANY ELEVATED CAPE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
LTG STRIKES HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT INTO
FORECAST. AS COLUMN COOLS LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX HOWEVER NO ACCUMS EXPECTED AS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD FOR
THE MOST PART BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.

WIND WILL BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG/RISE FALL
SURFACE PRESSURE COUPLET ALONG WITH PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION AND
30-40+ KTS THROUGH DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS. WINDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER DVL BASIN SPREADING EAST
DURING THE EARLY AM. SUFFICIENT WIND EXPECTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS ALL BUT THE MORE WOODED AREA OVER THE FAR EASTERN
FA. THERMAL ADVECTION NOT LONG LIVED AND WITH CLEARING IN WAKE OF
CFP SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO SEE SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP
CLOSE TO FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CROSS FA ON MONDAY AND MODELS BECOMING A LITTLE
CLOSER ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF POTENTIAL PCPN...ACROSS THE NE
HALF OF THE FA. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
BUT COLUMN FAIRLY MILD.

COLUMN A BIT COOLER TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL RANGE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD
FROM THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...
USHERING IN COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WEDNESDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 DEGREES.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OR NORTH OF
THE REGION...LEAVING THE AREA WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE LOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
GFS IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE WA/OR COAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...FAVORING A WARMER
SATURDAY. CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN STEADILY
ERODING. HOWEVER...SOME A CUMULUS FIELD HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE CUMULUS THICKENING THE MOST AT KDVL
PER NAM SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE. BELIEVE CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER. OTHERWISE KFAR AND KGFK COULD SEE SOME LOW LEVEL
CU AS WELL...BUT CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS ONLY SCT COVERAGE. WILL
MONITOR AND UPDATE IF NEEDED.

TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE TWO DISTINCT PERIODS OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT TYPE TO BE RAIN BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD CHANGE TO SNOW BRIEFLY RIGHT BEFORE
ENDING. ALSO...THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THE
FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS...SO LIGHTNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT
IS RATHER UNLIKELY. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE S TO
THE NNW AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 281833 CCA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE WESTERN FA SO HELD CLOUDS IN LONGER
THERE. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES STARTING
TONIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL DIGGING ONTO THE WEST COAST
BUT WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. SFC LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST AND DEEPEN
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION. 925MB WINDS ARE UP CLOSE TO 40 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO GET SUBSIDENCE TO HELP OUT WITH MIXING. WENT JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY
FLIRTING WITH CRITERIA. THINK THE GREATER THREAT FOR WINDS WILL
BE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW.
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPS
TODAY WARM WELL INTO THE 40S.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE SFC LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE CWA INTO MN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
AND MORE PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE COLD SIDE OF THE LOW. WE WILL
NOT HAVE THE TRUE INSTABILITY THAT MODELS SHOW TO OUR WEST FOR
THIS EVENING...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. GIVEN TEMP PROFILES
THINK THAT ANY SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AND EVEN
THEN IT WILL BE MORE OF A MIX. THERE WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW BUT THEN 850MB TEMPS
RETURN BACK ABOVE ZERO FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A STRONG MIXED LAYER AS THE FRONT COMES
IN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 30KTS IN SOME
AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COMING IN...AND WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE STRONG. THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE WINDS
COMING INTO THE AREA AND HOW FAST WE GET THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR THE TIME BEING TO
SEE WHAT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS
UP WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THAT WAVE. THE ECMWF AND GEM
TAKE THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA WITH
PRECIP...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE FURTHER NORTH AND JUST BRUSH
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20-30 POPS GOING
AREAWIDE FOR NOW. THERE SHOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN SNOW DURING THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE WE TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS WARM
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THINK THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL
SEE SOME SUN FOR PART OF THE DAY SO KEPT MONDAYS HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S WITH COOLER READINGS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. LIGHT WEST WINDS
WILL HELP KEEP MONDAY NIGHT READINGS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN IS RELATIVELY ZONAL
WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN BECOME MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW.
FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS IS A SLIGHTLY
FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. LITTLE CONFIDENCE AFTER WED AS THE
GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED ZERO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN STEADILY
ERODING. HOWEVER...SOME A CUMULUS FIELD HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE CUMULUS THICKENING THE MOST AT KDVL
PER NAM SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE. BELIEVE CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER. OTHERWISE KFAR AND KGFK COULD SEE SOME LOW LEVEL
CU AS WELL...BUT CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS ONLY SCT COVERAGE. WILL
MONITOR AND UPDATE IF NEEDED.

TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE TWO DISTINCT PERIODS OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT TYPE TO BE RAIN BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD CHANGE TO SNOW BRIEFLY RIGHT BEFORE
ENDING. ALSO...THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THE
FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS...SO LIGHTNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT
IS RATHER UNLIKELY. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE S TO
THE NNW AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG









000
FXUS63 KFGF 281833 CCA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE WESTERN FA SO HELD CLOUDS IN LONGER
THERE. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES STARTING
TONIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL DIGGING ONTO THE WEST COAST
BUT WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. SFC LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST AND DEEPEN
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION. 925MB WINDS ARE UP CLOSE TO 40 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO GET SUBSIDENCE TO HELP OUT WITH MIXING. WENT JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY
FLIRTING WITH CRITERIA. THINK THE GREATER THREAT FOR WINDS WILL
BE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW.
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPS
TODAY WARM WELL INTO THE 40S.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE SFC LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE CWA INTO MN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
AND MORE PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE COLD SIDE OF THE LOW. WE WILL
NOT HAVE THE TRUE INSTABILITY THAT MODELS SHOW TO OUR WEST FOR
THIS EVENING...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. GIVEN TEMP PROFILES
THINK THAT ANY SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AND EVEN
THEN IT WILL BE MORE OF A MIX. THERE WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW BUT THEN 850MB TEMPS
RETURN BACK ABOVE ZERO FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A STRONG MIXED LAYER AS THE FRONT COMES
IN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 30KTS IN SOME
AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COMING IN...AND WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE STRONG. THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE WINDS
COMING INTO THE AREA AND HOW FAST WE GET THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR THE TIME BEING TO
SEE WHAT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS
UP WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THAT WAVE. THE ECMWF AND GEM
TAKE THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA WITH
PRECIP...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE FURTHER NORTH AND JUST BRUSH
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20-30 POPS GOING
AREAWIDE FOR NOW. THERE SHOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN SNOW DURING THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE WE TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS WARM
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THINK THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL
SEE SOME SUN FOR PART OF THE DAY SO KEPT MONDAYS HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S WITH COOLER READINGS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. LIGHT WEST WINDS
WILL HELP KEEP MONDAY NIGHT READINGS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN IS RELATIVELY ZONAL
WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN BECOME MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW.
FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS IS A SLIGHTLY
FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. LITTLE CONFIDENCE AFTER WED AS THE
GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED ZERO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN STEADILY
ERODING. HOWEVER...SOME A CUMULUS FIELD HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE CUMULUS THICKENING THE MOST AT KDVL
PER NAM SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE. BELIEVE CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER. OTHERWISE KFAR AND KGFK COULD SEE SOME LOW LEVEL
CU AS WELL...BUT CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS ONLY SCT COVERAGE. WILL
MONITOR AND UPDATE IF NEEDED.

TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE TWO DISTINCT PERIODS OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT TYPE TO BE RAIN BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD CHANGE TO SNOW BRIEFLY RIGHT BEFORE
ENDING. ALSO...THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THE
FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS...SO LIGHTNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT
IS RATHER UNLIKELY. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE S TO
THE NNW AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG









000
FXUS63 KFGF 281833 CCA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE WESTERN FA SO HELD CLOUDS IN LONGER
THERE. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES STARTING
TONIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL DIGGING ONTO THE WEST COAST
BUT WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. SFC LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST AND DEEPEN
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION. 925MB WINDS ARE UP CLOSE TO 40 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO GET SUBSIDENCE TO HELP OUT WITH MIXING. WENT JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY
FLIRTING WITH CRITERIA. THINK THE GREATER THREAT FOR WINDS WILL
BE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW.
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPS
TODAY WARM WELL INTO THE 40S.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE SFC LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE CWA INTO MN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
AND MORE PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE COLD SIDE OF THE LOW. WE WILL
NOT HAVE THE TRUE INSTABILITY THAT MODELS SHOW TO OUR WEST FOR
THIS EVENING...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. GIVEN TEMP PROFILES
THINK THAT ANY SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AND EVEN
THEN IT WILL BE MORE OF A MIX. THERE WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW BUT THEN 850MB TEMPS
RETURN BACK ABOVE ZERO FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A STRONG MIXED LAYER AS THE FRONT COMES
IN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 30KTS IN SOME
AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COMING IN...AND WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE STRONG. THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE WINDS
COMING INTO THE AREA AND HOW FAST WE GET THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR THE TIME BEING TO
SEE WHAT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS
UP WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THAT WAVE. THE ECMWF AND GEM
TAKE THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA WITH
PRECIP...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE FURTHER NORTH AND JUST BRUSH
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20-30 POPS GOING
AREAWIDE FOR NOW. THERE SHOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN SNOW DURING THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE WE TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS WARM
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THINK THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL
SEE SOME SUN FOR PART OF THE DAY SO KEPT MONDAYS HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S WITH COOLER READINGS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. LIGHT WEST WINDS
WILL HELP KEEP MONDAY NIGHT READINGS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN IS RELATIVELY ZONAL
WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN BECOME MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW.
FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS IS A SLIGHTLY
FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. LITTLE CONFIDENCE AFTER WED AS THE
GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED ZERO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN STEADILY
ERODING. HOWEVER...SOME A CUMULUS FIELD HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE CUMULUS THICKENING THE MOST AT KDVL
PER NAM SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE. BELIEVE CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER. OTHERWISE KFAR AND KGFK COULD SEE SOME LOW LEVEL
CU AS WELL...BUT CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS ONLY SCT COVERAGE. WILL
MONITOR AND UPDATE IF NEEDED.

TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE TWO DISTINCT PERIODS OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT TYPE TO BE RAIN BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD CHANGE TO SNOW BRIEFLY RIGHT BEFORE
ENDING. ALSO...THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THE
FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS...SO LIGHTNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT
IS RATHER UNLIKELY. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE S TO
THE NNW AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG









000
FXUS63 KFGF 281833 CCA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE WESTERN FA SO HELD CLOUDS IN LONGER
THERE. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES STARTING
TONIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL DIGGING ONTO THE WEST COAST
BUT WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. SFC LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST AND DEEPEN
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION. 925MB WINDS ARE UP CLOSE TO 40 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO GET SUBSIDENCE TO HELP OUT WITH MIXING. WENT JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY
FLIRTING WITH CRITERIA. THINK THE GREATER THREAT FOR WINDS WILL
BE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW.
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPS
TODAY WARM WELL INTO THE 40S.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE SFC LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE CWA INTO MN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
AND MORE PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE COLD SIDE OF THE LOW. WE WILL
NOT HAVE THE TRUE INSTABILITY THAT MODELS SHOW TO OUR WEST FOR
THIS EVENING...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. GIVEN TEMP PROFILES
THINK THAT ANY SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AND EVEN
THEN IT WILL BE MORE OF A MIX. THERE WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW BUT THEN 850MB TEMPS
RETURN BACK ABOVE ZERO FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A STRONG MIXED LAYER AS THE FRONT COMES
IN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 30KTS IN SOME
AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COMING IN...AND WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE STRONG. THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE WINDS
COMING INTO THE AREA AND HOW FAST WE GET THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR THE TIME BEING TO
SEE WHAT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS
UP WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THAT WAVE. THE ECMWF AND GEM
TAKE THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA WITH
PRECIP...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE FURTHER NORTH AND JUST BRUSH
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20-30 POPS GOING
AREAWIDE FOR NOW. THERE SHOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN SNOW DURING THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE WE TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS WARM
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THINK THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL
SEE SOME SUN FOR PART OF THE DAY SO KEPT MONDAYS HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S WITH COOLER READINGS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. LIGHT WEST WINDS
WILL HELP KEEP MONDAY NIGHT READINGS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN IS RELATIVELY ZONAL
WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN BECOME MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW.
FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS IS A SLIGHTLY
FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. LITTLE CONFIDENCE AFTER WED AS THE
GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED ZERO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN STEADILY
ERODING. HOWEVER...SOME A CUMULUS FIELD HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE CUMULUS THICKENING THE MOST AT KDVL
PER NAM SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE. BELIEVE CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER. OTHERWISE KFAR AND KGFK COULD SEE SOME LOW LEVEL
CU AS WELL...BUT CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS ONLY SCT COVERAGE. WILL
MONITOR AND UPDATE IF NEEDED.

TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE TWO DISTINCT PERIODS OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT TYPE TO BE RAIN BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD CHANGE TO SNOW BRIEFLY RIGHT BEFORE
ENDING. ALSO...THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THE
FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS...SO LIGHTNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT
IS RATHER UNLIKELY. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE S TO
THE NNW AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG









000
FXUS63 KFGF 281833 CCA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE WESTERN FA SO HELD CLOUDS IN LONGER
THERE. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES STARTING
TONIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL DIGGING ONTO THE WEST COAST
BUT WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. SFC LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST AND DEEPEN
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION. 925MB WINDS ARE UP CLOSE TO 40 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO GET SUBSIDENCE TO HELP OUT WITH MIXING. WENT JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY
FLIRTING WITH CRITERIA. THINK THE GREATER THREAT FOR WINDS WILL
BE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW.
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPS
TODAY WARM WELL INTO THE 40S.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE SFC LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE CWA INTO MN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
AND MORE PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE COLD SIDE OF THE LOW. WE WILL
NOT HAVE THE TRUE INSTABILITY THAT MODELS SHOW TO OUR WEST FOR
THIS EVENING...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. GIVEN TEMP PROFILES
THINK THAT ANY SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AND EVEN
THEN IT WILL BE MORE OF A MIX. THERE WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW BUT THEN 850MB TEMPS
RETURN BACK ABOVE ZERO FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A STRONG MIXED LAYER AS THE FRONT COMES
IN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 30KTS IN SOME
AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COMING IN...AND WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE STRONG. THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE WINDS
COMING INTO THE AREA AND HOW FAST WE GET THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR THE TIME BEING TO
SEE WHAT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS
UP WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THAT WAVE. THE ECMWF AND GEM
TAKE THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA WITH
PRECIP...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE FURTHER NORTH AND JUST BRUSH
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20-30 POPS GOING
AREAWIDE FOR NOW. THERE SHOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN SNOW DURING THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE WE TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS WARM
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THINK THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL
SEE SOME SUN FOR PART OF THE DAY SO KEPT MONDAYS HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S WITH COOLER READINGS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. LIGHT WEST WINDS
WILL HELP KEEP MONDAY NIGHT READINGS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN IS RELATIVELY ZONAL
WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN BECOME MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW.
FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS IS A SLIGHTLY
FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. LITTLE CONFIDENCE AFTER WED AS THE
GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED ZERO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN STEADILY
ERODING. HOWEVER...SOME A CUMULUS FIELD HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE CUMULUS THICKENING THE MOST AT KDVL
PER NAM SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE. BELIEVE CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER. OTHERWISE KFAR AND KGFK COULD SEE SOME LOW LEVEL
CU AS WELL...BUT CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS ONLY SCT COVERAGE. WILL
MONITOR AND UPDATE IF NEEDED.

TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE TWO DISTINCT PERIODS OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT TYPE TO BE RAIN BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD CHANGE TO SNOW BRIEFLY RIGHT BEFORE
ENDING. ALSO...THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THE
FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS...SO LIGHTNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT
IS RATHER UNLIKELY. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE S TO
THE NNW AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG










000
FXUS63 KFGF 281833 CCA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE WESTERN FA SO HELD CLOUDS IN LONGER
THERE. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES STARTING
TONIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL DIGGING ONTO THE WEST COAST
BUT WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. SFC LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST AND DEEPEN
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION. 925MB WINDS ARE UP CLOSE TO 40 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO GET SUBSIDENCE TO HELP OUT WITH MIXING. WENT JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY
FLIRTING WITH CRITERIA. THINK THE GREATER THREAT FOR WINDS WILL
BE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW.
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPS
TODAY WARM WELL INTO THE 40S.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE SFC LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE CWA INTO MN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
AND MORE PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE COLD SIDE OF THE LOW. WE WILL
NOT HAVE THE TRUE INSTABILITY THAT MODELS SHOW TO OUR WEST FOR
THIS EVENING...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. GIVEN TEMP PROFILES
THINK THAT ANY SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AND EVEN
THEN IT WILL BE MORE OF A MIX. THERE WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW BUT THEN 850MB TEMPS
RETURN BACK ABOVE ZERO FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A STRONG MIXED LAYER AS THE FRONT COMES
IN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 30KTS IN SOME
AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COMING IN...AND WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE STRONG. THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE WINDS
COMING INTO THE AREA AND HOW FAST WE GET THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR THE TIME BEING TO
SEE WHAT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS
UP WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THAT WAVE. THE ECMWF AND GEM
TAKE THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA WITH
PRECIP...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE FURTHER NORTH AND JUST BRUSH
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20-30 POPS GOING
AREAWIDE FOR NOW. THERE SHOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN SNOW DURING THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE WE TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS WARM
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THINK THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL
SEE SOME SUN FOR PART OF THE DAY SO KEPT MONDAYS HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S WITH COOLER READINGS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. LIGHT WEST WINDS
WILL HELP KEEP MONDAY NIGHT READINGS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN IS RELATIVELY ZONAL
WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN BECOME MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW.
FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS IS A SLIGHTLY
FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. LITTLE CONFIDENCE AFTER WED AS THE
GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED ZERO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN STEADILY
ERODING. HOWEVER...SOME A CUMULUS FIELD HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE CUMULUS THICKENING THE MOST AT KDVL
PER NAM SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE. BELIEVE CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER. OTHERWISE KFAR AND KGFK COULD SEE SOME LOW LEVEL
CU AS WELL...BUT CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS ONLY SCT COVERAGE. WILL
MONITOR AND UPDATE IF NEEDED.

TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE TWO DISTINCT PERIODS OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT TYPE TO BE RAIN BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD CHANGE TO SNOW BRIEFLY RIGHT BEFORE
ENDING. ALSO...THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THE
FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS...SO LIGHTNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT
IS RATHER UNLIKELY. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE S TO
THE NNW AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG









000
FXUS63 KFGF 281752
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE WESTERN FA SO HELD CLOUDS IN LONGER
THERE. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES STARTING
TONIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL DIGGING ONTO THE WEST COAST
BUT WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. SFC LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST AND DEEPEN
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION. 925MB WINDS ARE UP CLOSE TO 40 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO GET SUBSIDENCE TO HELP OUT WITH MIXING. WENT JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY
FLIRTING WITH CRITERIA. THINK THE GREATER THREAT FOR WINDS WILL
BE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW.
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPS
TODAY WARM WELL INTO THE 40S.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE SFC LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE CWA INTO MN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
AND MORE PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE COLD SIDE OF THE LOW. WE WILL
NOT HAVE THE TRUE INSTABILITY THAT MODELS SHOW TO OUR WEST FOR
THIS EVENING...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. GIVEN TEMP PROFILES
THINK THAT ANY SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AND EVEN
THEN IT WILL BE MORE OF A MIX. THERE WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW BUT THEN 850MB TEMPS
RETURN BACK ABOVE ZERO FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A STRONG MIXED LAYER AS THE FRONT COMES
IN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 30KTS IN SOME
AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COMING IN...AND WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE STRONG. THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE WINDS
COMING INTO THE AREA AND HOW FAST WE GET THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR THE TIME BEING TO
SEE WHAT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS
UP WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THAT WAVE. THE ECMWF AND GEM
TAKE THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA WITH
PRECIP...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE FURTHER NORTH AND JUST BRUSH
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20-30 POPS GOING
AREAWIDE FOR NOW. THERE SHOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN SNOW DURING THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE WE TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS WARM
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THINK THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL
SEE SOME SUN FOR PART OF THE DAY SO KEPT MONDAYS HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S WITH COOLER READINGS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. LIGHT WEST WINDS
WILL HELP KEEP MONDAY NIGHT READINGS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN IS RELATIVELY ZONAL
WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN BECOME MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW.
FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS IS A SLIGHTLY
FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. LITTLE CONFIDENCE AFTER WED AS THE
GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED ZERO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN STEADILY
ERODING. HOWEVER...SOME A CUMULUS FIELD HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE CUMULUS THICKENING THE MOST AT KDVL
PER NAM SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE. BELIEVE CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER. OTHERWISE KFAR AND KGFK COULD SEE SOME LOW LEVEL CU
AS WELL...BUT CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS ONLY SCT COVERAGE. WILL
MONITOR AND UPDATE IF NEEDED.

TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE TWO DISTINCT PERIODS OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT TYPE TO BE RAIN BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD CHANGE TO SNOW BRIEFLY RIGHT BEFORE
ENDING. ALSO...THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THE
FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS...SO LIGHTNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT
IS RATHER UNLIKELY. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE S TO
THE NNW AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 281752
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE WESTERN FA SO HELD CLOUDS IN LONGER
THERE. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES STARTING
TONIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL DIGGING ONTO THE WEST COAST
BUT WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. SFC LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST AND DEEPEN
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION. 925MB WINDS ARE UP CLOSE TO 40 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO GET SUBSIDENCE TO HELP OUT WITH MIXING. WENT JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY
FLIRTING WITH CRITERIA. THINK THE GREATER THREAT FOR WINDS WILL
BE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW.
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPS
TODAY WARM WELL INTO THE 40S.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE SFC LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE CWA INTO MN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
AND MORE PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE COLD SIDE OF THE LOW. WE WILL
NOT HAVE THE TRUE INSTABILITY THAT MODELS SHOW TO OUR WEST FOR
THIS EVENING...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. GIVEN TEMP PROFILES
THINK THAT ANY SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AND EVEN
THEN IT WILL BE MORE OF A MIX. THERE WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW BUT THEN 850MB TEMPS
RETURN BACK ABOVE ZERO FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A STRONG MIXED LAYER AS THE FRONT COMES
IN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 30KTS IN SOME
AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COMING IN...AND WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE STRONG. THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE WINDS
COMING INTO THE AREA AND HOW FAST WE GET THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR THE TIME BEING TO
SEE WHAT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS
UP WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THAT WAVE. THE ECMWF AND GEM
TAKE THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA WITH
PRECIP...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE FURTHER NORTH AND JUST BRUSH
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20-30 POPS GOING
AREAWIDE FOR NOW. THERE SHOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN SNOW DURING THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE WE TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS WARM
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THINK THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL
SEE SOME SUN FOR PART OF THE DAY SO KEPT MONDAYS HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S WITH COOLER READINGS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. LIGHT WEST WINDS
WILL HELP KEEP MONDAY NIGHT READINGS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN IS RELATIVELY ZONAL
WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN BECOME MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW.
FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS IS A SLIGHTLY
FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. LITTLE CONFIDENCE AFTER WED AS THE
GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED ZERO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN STEADILY
ERODING. HOWEVER...SOME A CUMULUS FIELD HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE CUMULUS THICKENING THE MOST AT KDVL
PER NAM SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE. BELIEVE CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER. OTHERWISE KFAR AND KGFK COULD SEE SOME LOW LEVEL CU
AS WELL...BUT CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS ONLY SCT COVERAGE. WILL
MONITOR AND UPDATE IF NEEDED.

TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE TWO DISTINCT PERIODS OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT TYPE TO BE RAIN BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD CHANGE TO SNOW BRIEFLY RIGHT BEFORE
ENDING. ALSO...THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THE
FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS...SO LIGHTNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT
IS RATHER UNLIKELY. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE S TO
THE NNW AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 281752
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE WESTERN FA SO HELD CLOUDS IN LONGER
THERE. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES STARTING
TONIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL DIGGING ONTO THE WEST COAST
BUT WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. SFC LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST AND DEEPEN
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION. 925MB WINDS ARE UP CLOSE TO 40 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO GET SUBSIDENCE TO HELP OUT WITH MIXING. WENT JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY
FLIRTING WITH CRITERIA. THINK THE GREATER THREAT FOR WINDS WILL
BE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW.
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPS
TODAY WARM WELL INTO THE 40S.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE SFC LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE CWA INTO MN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
AND MORE PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE COLD SIDE OF THE LOW. WE WILL
NOT HAVE THE TRUE INSTABILITY THAT MODELS SHOW TO OUR WEST FOR
THIS EVENING...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. GIVEN TEMP PROFILES
THINK THAT ANY SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AND EVEN
THEN IT WILL BE MORE OF A MIX. THERE WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW BUT THEN 850MB TEMPS
RETURN BACK ABOVE ZERO FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A STRONG MIXED LAYER AS THE FRONT COMES
IN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 30KTS IN SOME
AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COMING IN...AND WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE STRONG. THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE WINDS
COMING INTO THE AREA AND HOW FAST WE GET THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR THE TIME BEING TO
SEE WHAT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS
UP WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THAT WAVE. THE ECMWF AND GEM
TAKE THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA WITH
PRECIP...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE FURTHER NORTH AND JUST BRUSH
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20-30 POPS GOING
AREAWIDE FOR NOW. THERE SHOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN SNOW DURING THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE WE TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS WARM
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THINK THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL
SEE SOME SUN FOR PART OF THE DAY SO KEPT MONDAYS HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S WITH COOLER READINGS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. LIGHT WEST WINDS
WILL HELP KEEP MONDAY NIGHT READINGS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN IS RELATIVELY ZONAL
WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN BECOME MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW.
FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS IS A SLIGHTLY
FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. LITTLE CONFIDENCE AFTER WED AS THE
GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED ZERO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN STEADILY
ERODING. HOWEVER...SOME A CUMULUS FIELD HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE CUMULUS THICKENING THE MOST AT KDVL
PER NAM SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE. BELIEVE CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER. OTHERWISE KFAR AND KGFK COULD SEE SOME LOW LEVEL CU
AS WELL...BUT CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS ONLY SCT COVERAGE. WILL
MONITOR AND UPDATE IF NEEDED.

TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE TWO DISTINCT PERIODS OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT TYPE TO BE RAIN BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD CHANGE TO SNOW BRIEFLY RIGHT BEFORE
ENDING. ALSO...THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THE
FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS...SO LIGHTNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT
IS RATHER UNLIKELY. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE S TO
THE NNW AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 281752
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE WESTERN FA SO HELD CLOUDS IN LONGER
THERE. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES STARTING
TONIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL DIGGING ONTO THE WEST COAST
BUT WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. SFC LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST AND DEEPEN
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION. 925MB WINDS ARE UP CLOSE TO 40 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO GET SUBSIDENCE TO HELP OUT WITH MIXING. WENT JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY
FLIRTING WITH CRITERIA. THINK THE GREATER THREAT FOR WINDS WILL
BE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW.
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPS
TODAY WARM WELL INTO THE 40S.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE SFC LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE CWA INTO MN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
AND MORE PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE COLD SIDE OF THE LOW. WE WILL
NOT HAVE THE TRUE INSTABILITY THAT MODELS SHOW TO OUR WEST FOR
THIS EVENING...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. GIVEN TEMP PROFILES
THINK THAT ANY SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AND EVEN
THEN IT WILL BE MORE OF A MIX. THERE WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW BUT THEN 850MB TEMPS
RETURN BACK ABOVE ZERO FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A STRONG MIXED LAYER AS THE FRONT COMES
IN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 30KTS IN SOME
AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COMING IN...AND WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE STRONG. THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE WINDS
COMING INTO THE AREA AND HOW FAST WE GET THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR THE TIME BEING TO
SEE WHAT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS
UP WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THAT WAVE. THE ECMWF AND GEM
TAKE THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA WITH
PRECIP...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE FURTHER NORTH AND JUST BRUSH
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20-30 POPS GOING
AREAWIDE FOR NOW. THERE SHOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN SNOW DURING THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE WE TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS WARM
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THINK THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL
SEE SOME SUN FOR PART OF THE DAY SO KEPT MONDAYS HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S WITH COOLER READINGS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. LIGHT WEST WINDS
WILL HELP KEEP MONDAY NIGHT READINGS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN IS RELATIVELY ZONAL
WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN BECOME MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW.
FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS IS A SLIGHTLY
FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. LITTLE CONFIDENCE AFTER WED AS THE
GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED ZERO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN STEADILY
ERODING. HOWEVER...SOME A CUMULUS FIELD HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE CUMULUS THICKENING THE MOST AT KDVL
PER NAM SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE. BELIEVE CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER. OTHERWISE KFAR AND KGFK COULD SEE SOME LOW LEVEL CU
AS WELL...BUT CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS ONLY SCT COVERAGE. WILL
MONITOR AND UPDATE IF NEEDED.

TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE TWO DISTINCT PERIODS OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT TYPE TO BE RAIN BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD CHANGE TO SNOW BRIEFLY RIGHT BEFORE
ENDING. ALSO...THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THE
FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS...SO LIGHTNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT
IS RATHER UNLIKELY. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE S TO
THE NNW AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 281734
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1234 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FOG CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
ONLY A SMALL PATCH LEFT OVER THE FAR NORTH. THIS SHOULD BE GONE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
WINDS PICKING UP ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES PUSHING UP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FOG OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAS STARTED TO DIMINISH ON ITS EDGES THIS
MORNING...THOUGH VISIBILITY STILL REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER PORTIONS
OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL EXPAND MENTION OF FOG
THROUGH MID DAY OVER THIS AREA...THEN EXPECT IT TO ERODE AS WINDS
START PICKING UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...GOING
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WITH THIS UPDATE WILL REFINE THE FOG AREA. CLOUDS ARE FOG ARE
ERODING FROM THE EAST. BY MID MORNING MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND FOG
SHOULD BE GONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SEVERAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM RANGING FROM
FOG...TO THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS.

THIS MORNING WE START OUT WITH FOG ACROSS THE JAMES AND MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEYS. SOME LOCATIONS WERE ALSO EXPERIENCING LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. FOG AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS WINDS INCREASE AND
SHIFT FROM AN EAST OR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO DUE SOUTH...FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS RISE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. WHILE WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THE MAIN WIND EVENT WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND LATER TONIGHT FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA. DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR 50 MPH
(RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH WIND WARNING). THE SHORT TERM HIGH RES
MODELS (WRF/RAP/HRRR) ALL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY AROUND 4 PM CDT. FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (BETWEEN 200 AND 700 J/KG
CAPE DEPENDING WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT) TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT ENHANCED UPDRAFTS...SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA
(MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER). BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
VERY IMPRESSIVE STEEP PRESSURE RISES ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
WITH PRESSURE RISES AROUND 8 OR 9 MB/3HR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
MIXING DOWN WINDS ALOFT...STRONG WINDS AROUND 40 MPH APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THEREFORE
A HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND NOT AS MILD BUT GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL.
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME AT 500MB WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIRLY
REGULAR PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERY
PERIODS. AFTER WEDNESDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT 500MB CENTRAL
CANADIAN LOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS OVER KJMS WILL ERODE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LCL -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN AREAS...WITH CHANCES SPREADING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES IN TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY. AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE
SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
25 MPH. THE TROUGH PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM MDT. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING WEST WINDS TO 40 MPH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
DRY LIGHTNING AND LOCAL WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH. ANY FIRES
COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY AND SHOW ERRATIC BEHAVIOR. DANGEROUS BURNING
CONDITIONS WILL WILL EXIST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002>004-
010>012-019>022-034>036-046-047-050.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7
AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040>045.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031-032-040-
041-043-044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 281734
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1234 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FOG CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
ONLY A SMALL PATCH LEFT OVER THE FAR NORTH. THIS SHOULD BE GONE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
WINDS PICKING UP ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES PUSHING UP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FOG OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAS STARTED TO DIMINISH ON ITS EDGES THIS
MORNING...THOUGH VISIBILITY STILL REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER PORTIONS
OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL EXPAND MENTION OF FOG
THROUGH MID DAY OVER THIS AREA...THEN EXPECT IT TO ERODE AS WINDS
START PICKING UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...GOING
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WITH THIS UPDATE WILL REFINE THE FOG AREA. CLOUDS ARE FOG ARE
ERODING FROM THE EAST. BY MID MORNING MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND FOG
SHOULD BE GONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SEVERAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM RANGING FROM
FOG...TO THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS.

THIS MORNING WE START OUT WITH FOG ACROSS THE JAMES AND MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEYS. SOME LOCATIONS WERE ALSO EXPERIENCING LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. FOG AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS WINDS INCREASE AND
SHIFT FROM AN EAST OR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO DUE SOUTH...FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS RISE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. WHILE WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THE MAIN WIND EVENT WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND LATER TONIGHT FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA. DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR 50 MPH
(RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH WIND WARNING). THE SHORT TERM HIGH RES
MODELS (WRF/RAP/HRRR) ALL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY AROUND 4 PM CDT. FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (BETWEEN 200 AND 700 J/KG
CAPE DEPENDING WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT) TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT ENHANCED UPDRAFTS...SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA
(MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER). BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
VERY IMPRESSIVE STEEP PRESSURE RISES ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
WITH PRESSURE RISES AROUND 8 OR 9 MB/3HR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
MIXING DOWN WINDS ALOFT...STRONG WINDS AROUND 40 MPH APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THEREFORE
A HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND NOT AS MILD BUT GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL.
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME AT 500MB WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIRLY
REGULAR PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERY
PERIODS. AFTER WEDNESDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT 500MB CENTRAL
CANADIAN LOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS OVER KJMS WILL ERODE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LCL -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN AREAS...WITH CHANCES SPREADING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES IN TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY. AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE
SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
25 MPH. THE TROUGH PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM MDT. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING WEST WINDS TO 40 MPH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
DRY LIGHTNING AND LOCAL WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH. ANY FIRES
COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY AND SHOW ERRATIC BEHAVIOR. DANGEROUS BURNING
CONDITIONS WILL WILL EXIST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002>004-
010>012-019>022-034>036-046-047-050.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7
AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040>045.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031-032-040-
041-043-044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 281734
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1234 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FOG CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
ONLY A SMALL PATCH LEFT OVER THE FAR NORTH. THIS SHOULD BE GONE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
WINDS PICKING UP ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES PUSHING UP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FOG OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAS STARTED TO DIMINISH ON ITS EDGES THIS
MORNING...THOUGH VISIBILITY STILL REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER PORTIONS
OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL EXPAND MENTION OF FOG
THROUGH MID DAY OVER THIS AREA...THEN EXPECT IT TO ERODE AS WINDS
START PICKING UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...GOING
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WITH THIS UPDATE WILL REFINE THE FOG AREA. CLOUDS ARE FOG ARE
ERODING FROM THE EAST. BY MID MORNING MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND FOG
SHOULD BE GONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SEVERAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM RANGING FROM
FOG...TO THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS.

THIS MORNING WE START OUT WITH FOG ACROSS THE JAMES AND MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEYS. SOME LOCATIONS WERE ALSO EXPERIENCING LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. FOG AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS WINDS INCREASE AND
SHIFT FROM AN EAST OR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO DUE SOUTH...FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS RISE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. WHILE WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THE MAIN WIND EVENT WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND LATER TONIGHT FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA. DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR 50 MPH
(RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH WIND WARNING). THE SHORT TERM HIGH RES
MODELS (WRF/RAP/HRRR) ALL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY AROUND 4 PM CDT. FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (BETWEEN 200 AND 700 J/KG
CAPE DEPENDING WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT) TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT ENHANCED UPDRAFTS...SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA
(MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER). BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
VERY IMPRESSIVE STEEP PRESSURE RISES ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
WITH PRESSURE RISES AROUND 8 OR 9 MB/3HR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
MIXING DOWN WINDS ALOFT...STRONG WINDS AROUND 40 MPH APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THEREFORE
A HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND NOT AS MILD BUT GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL.
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME AT 500MB WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIRLY
REGULAR PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERY
PERIODS. AFTER WEDNESDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT 500MB CENTRAL
CANADIAN LOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS OVER KJMS WILL ERODE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LCL -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN AREAS...WITH CHANCES SPREADING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES IN TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY. AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE
SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
25 MPH. THE TROUGH PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM MDT. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING WEST WINDS TO 40 MPH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
DRY LIGHTNING AND LOCAL WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH. ANY FIRES
COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY AND SHOW ERRATIC BEHAVIOR. DANGEROUS BURNING
CONDITIONS WILL WILL EXIST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002>004-
010>012-019>022-034>036-046-047-050.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7
AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040>045.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031-032-040-
041-043-044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 281734
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1234 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FOG CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
ONLY A SMALL PATCH LEFT OVER THE FAR NORTH. THIS SHOULD BE GONE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
WINDS PICKING UP ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES PUSHING UP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FOG OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAS STARTED TO DIMINISH ON ITS EDGES THIS
MORNING...THOUGH VISIBILITY STILL REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER PORTIONS
OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL EXPAND MENTION OF FOG
THROUGH MID DAY OVER THIS AREA...THEN EXPECT IT TO ERODE AS WINDS
START PICKING UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...GOING
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WITH THIS UPDATE WILL REFINE THE FOG AREA. CLOUDS ARE FOG ARE
ERODING FROM THE EAST. BY MID MORNING MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND FOG
SHOULD BE GONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SEVERAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM RANGING FROM
FOG...TO THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS.

THIS MORNING WE START OUT WITH FOG ACROSS THE JAMES AND MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEYS. SOME LOCATIONS WERE ALSO EXPERIENCING LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. FOG AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS WINDS INCREASE AND
SHIFT FROM AN EAST OR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO DUE SOUTH...FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS RISE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. WHILE WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THE MAIN WIND EVENT WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND LATER TONIGHT FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA. DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR 50 MPH
(RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH WIND WARNING). THE SHORT TERM HIGH RES
MODELS (WRF/RAP/HRRR) ALL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY AROUND 4 PM CDT. FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (BETWEEN 200 AND 700 J/KG
CAPE DEPENDING WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT) TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT ENHANCED UPDRAFTS...SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA
(MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER). BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
VERY IMPRESSIVE STEEP PRESSURE RISES ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
WITH PRESSURE RISES AROUND 8 OR 9 MB/3HR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
MIXING DOWN WINDS ALOFT...STRONG WINDS AROUND 40 MPH APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THEREFORE
A HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND NOT AS MILD BUT GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL.
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME AT 500MB WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIRLY
REGULAR PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERY
PERIODS. AFTER WEDNESDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT 500MB CENTRAL
CANADIAN LOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS OVER KJMS WILL ERODE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LCL -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN AREAS...WITH CHANCES SPREADING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES IN TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY. AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE
SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
25 MPH. THE TROUGH PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM MDT. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING WEST WINDS TO 40 MPH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
DRY LIGHTNING AND LOCAL WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH. ANY FIRES
COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY AND SHOW ERRATIC BEHAVIOR. DANGEROUS BURNING
CONDITIONS WILL WILL EXIST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002>004-
010>012-019>022-034>036-046-047-050.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7
AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040>045.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031-032-040-
041-043-044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...WAA







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities