Latest:
 AFDBIS |  AFDFGF |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KBIS 282012
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
312 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE SO FAR TODAY. MAIN CHANGE
TO HEADLINES WILL BE TO EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING WEST SEVERAL
MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING AS THE H850 WINDS AND BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH 04Z. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SHOWERS EXTEND ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
WILL SPREAD AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTHEAST
AS BISMARCK THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 04Z
AND SHOWERS ENDING BY MORNING. BREEZY WEDNESDAY BUT NOT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH AS THE LOW EXITS THE
REGION.

A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING COOLER AND DRYER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
THIS WEEKEND AS THE JET STREAM SHIFTS SOUTH AGAIN AND SEVERAL FAST
MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVES PROPAGATE THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. HAZARD
TO AVIATION WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 35 TO 55 KTS
KISN-KDIK-KMOT-KBIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 30KTS OR LESS AFTER 04Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>036-040>044.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ037-045>048-
050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA



000
FXUS63 KBIS 282012
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
312 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE SO FAR TODAY. MAIN CHANGE
TO HEADLINES WILL BE TO EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING WEST SEVERAL
MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING AS THE H850 WINDS AND BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH 04Z. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SHOWERS EXTEND ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
WILL SPREAD AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTHEAST
AS BISMARCK THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 04Z
AND SHOWERS ENDING BY MORNING. BREEZY WEDNESDAY BUT NOT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH AS THE LOW EXITS THE
REGION.

A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING COOLER AND DRYER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
THIS WEEKEND AS THE JET STREAM SHIFTS SOUTH AGAIN AND SEVERAL FAST
MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVES PROPAGATE THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. HAZARD
TO AVIATION WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 35 TO 55 KTS
KISN-KDIK-KMOT-KBIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 30KTS OR LESS AFTER 04Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>036-040>044.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ037-045>048-
050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 282012
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
312 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE SO FAR TODAY. MAIN CHANGE
TO HEADLINES WILL BE TO EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING WEST SEVERAL
MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING AS THE H850 WINDS AND BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH 04Z. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SHOWERS EXTEND ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
WILL SPREAD AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTHEAST
AS BISMARCK THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 04Z
AND SHOWERS ENDING BY MORNING. BREEZY WEDNESDAY BUT NOT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH AS THE LOW EXITS THE
REGION.

A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING COOLER AND DRYER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
THIS WEEKEND AS THE JET STREAM SHIFTS SOUTH AGAIN AND SEVERAL FAST
MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVES PROPAGATE THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. HAZARD
TO AVIATION WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 35 TO 55 KTS
KISN-KDIK-KMOT-KBIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 30KTS OR LESS AFTER 04Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>036-040>044.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ037-045>048-
050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KFGF 281950
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
250 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS OF MID AFTERNOON THE MOST SUN REMAINED OVER THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. WINDS WERE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS YET OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS WHERE THEY WERE GUSTING ABOVE 50 KNOTS. HAVE NOT QUITE
REACHED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM KDVL TO KJMS BUT SHOULD SOON.
STILL HAVE LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM FOR RAW MOS
GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS MUCH HIGHER. EITHER WAY BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE STRONGEST WINDS MOVING INTO THE KDVL AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
TONIGHT. THIS IS TRADITIONALLY NOT THE BEST TIME FOR MIXING
STRONGER WIND GUSTS DOWN TO THE SFC. NOT SEEING THE BEST PUSH OF
COLD ADVECTION DURING THIS TIME EITHER...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
THAT ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED OR EXTENDED IN TIME. WILL
THEREFORE KEEP THE WIND HEADLINES AS THEY ARE AND LET EVENING
SHIFT KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS.

THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST MT TOO WHICH MODELS HOLD
TOGETHER IN SOME FASHION OVERNIGHT. FOR THIS KEPT THE IDEA OF
SOME OF THIS REACHING THE KDVL REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARD WED MORNING. THIS WILL THEN HANG
AROUND INTO NORTHWEST MN INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALSO EXPECT WINDS
TO CRANK UP AGAIN ON WED...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THEY WILL BE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME ENERGY SLIDING INTO THE NORTHEAST FA THU
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...SO KEPT SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN WITH
THIS FEATURE TOO. POSSIBILITY FOR ANTHER WEAK WAVE FRI AFTERNOON
BUT MOST MODELS KEEP ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THIS TIME FRAME DRY FOR NOW AND SEE
WHAT LATER MODELS HAVE IN STORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY IS LOOKING PRETTY QUIET WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.  THERE 500 MB UPPER RIDGE WILL
SHIFT A BIT EAST AND OUR AREA WILL BE IN A BIT DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.  A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS ARE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THIS
FLOW...ONE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL NOT AS MOIST OR
UNSTABLE AND THUS CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS MUCH LOWER.
SO WHILE THERE ARE SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED
PER THE MODEL BLEND...MOST AREAS GET TO ENJOY A REPRIEVE FROM THE
HUMID AND WET WEATHER OF LATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UNSEASONABLY STRONG FOR MID SUMMER SFC LOW AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AS IT DOES LOOK
FOR WINDS TO SHIFT FROM A MORE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TO A MORE WEST DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND THEN WEST-
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. BIG ISSUE IS WIND SPEEDS AND HOW HIGH.
HIGHEST WIND CORE ALOFT AT 925-850 MB (40-50 KTS) COMES OVER NE ND
OVERNIGHT AND NOT AT TIME OF PEAK HEATING. THUS NOT EXPECTING THAT
TO REACH THE SFC. HOWEVER...ENOUGH GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE SFC LOW
FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 KTS IN ERN ND/RRV WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THRU THE AFTN AND THRU THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A BIT LIGHTER
WINDS THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. HIGH WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...WHERE AROUND DVL SOME WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS PSBL LATE
THIS AFTN-EVE. DRY SLOT AND CLEARING AREA WILL WORK EAST THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTN/EVE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD MVFR OR LOW END VFR
CIGS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ008-016-
     027>030-038-039-049-052.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-004-005-
     007-008-013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 281745
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT EXITED THE KBDE AREA. OTHERWISE
CLOUDS ARE HANGING BACK OVER AREAS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE DEVILS LAKE AREA...WITH THE MOST SUN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND. WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTHWEST OVER MOST OF THE
FA TOO...SO WILL NOW LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO INCREASE. WILL LIKELY
ADD A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY WITH THE 3 PM
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

150+M HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN MAN AND ONTARIO FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG MT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST SASK FORECAST TO DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 18Z THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 48
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE AREA
AND OVER 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN SD. EAST-WEST CROSS SECTION INDICATES
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOIST AIR SHIFTS EAST TODAY AS DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTH...OVER SD OR ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CURRENT LINE.  MAY KEEP THE SAME TREND FOR
TODAY. LINE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ADIABATIC LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESSENTIALLY THROUGH WED EVENING EXCEPTING 12Z WED. WINDS TO 60 KNOTS
IN THIS LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MAY NEED A HIGH WIND WARNING NORTHWEST
ZONES...WILL LET NEXT SHIFT DETERMINE IF NEEDED. WINDY YET WED
MORNING AND DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TUE
NIGHT AND WED.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
THU AFTER AND EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
THE BEST WAVE THIS WEEKEND. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY
CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON IF WAVES COME THROUGH AT MAX HEATING...SO
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHAT DAY COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UNSEASONABLY STRONG FOR MID SUMMER SFC LOW AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AS IT DOES LOOK
FOR WINDS TO SHIFT FROM A MORE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TO A MORE WEST DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND THEN WEST-
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. BIG ISSUE IS WIND SPEEDS AND HOW HIGH.
HIGHEST WIND CORE ALOFT AT 925-850 MB (40-50 KTS) COMES OVER NE ND
OVERNIGHT AND NOT AT TIME OF PEAK HEATING. THUS NOT EXPECTING THAT
TO REACH THE SFC. HOWEVER...ENOUGH GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE SFC LOW
FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 KTS IN ERN ND/RRV WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THRU THE AFTN AND THRU THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A BIT LIGHTER
WINDS THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. HIGH WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...WHERE AROUND DVL SOME WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS PSBL LATE
THIS AFTN-EVE. DRY SLOT AND CLEARING AREA WILL WORK EAST THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTN/EVE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD MVFR OR LOW END VFR
CIGS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ008-016-
     027>030-038-039-049-052.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-004-005-
     007-008-013-014.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 281745
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT EXITED THE KBDE AREA. OTHERWISE
CLOUDS ARE HANGING BACK OVER AREAS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE DEVILS LAKE AREA...WITH THE MOST SUN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND. WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTHWEST OVER MOST OF THE
FA TOO...SO WILL NOW LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO INCREASE. WILL LIKELY
ADD A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY WITH THE 3 PM
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

150+M HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN MAN AND ONTARIO FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG MT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST SASK FORECAST TO DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 18Z THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 48
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE AREA
AND OVER 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN SD. EAST-WEST CROSS SECTION INDICATES
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOIST AIR SHIFTS EAST TODAY AS DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTH...OVER SD OR ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CURRENT LINE.  MAY KEEP THE SAME TREND FOR
TODAY. LINE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ADIABATIC LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESSENTIALLY THROUGH WED EVENING EXCEPTING 12Z WED. WINDS TO 60 KNOTS
IN THIS LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MAY NEED A HIGH WIND WARNING NORTHWEST
ZONES...WILL LET NEXT SHIFT DETERMINE IF NEEDED. WINDY YET WED
MORNING AND DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TUE
NIGHT AND WED.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
THU AFTER AND EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
THE BEST WAVE THIS WEEKEND. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY
CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON IF WAVES COME THROUGH AT MAX HEATING...SO
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHAT DAY COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UNSEASONABLY STRONG FOR MID SUMMER SFC LOW AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AS IT DOES LOOK
FOR WINDS TO SHIFT FROM A MORE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TO A MORE WEST DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND THEN WEST-
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. BIG ISSUE IS WIND SPEEDS AND HOW HIGH.
HIGHEST WIND CORE ALOFT AT 925-850 MB (40-50 KTS) COMES OVER NE ND
OVERNIGHT AND NOT AT TIME OF PEAK HEATING. THUS NOT EXPECTING THAT
TO REACH THE SFC. HOWEVER...ENOUGH GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE SFC LOW
FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 KTS IN ERN ND/RRV WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THRU THE AFTN AND THRU THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A BIT LIGHTER
WINDS THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. HIGH WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...WHERE AROUND DVL SOME WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS PSBL LATE
THIS AFTN-EVE. DRY SLOT AND CLEARING AREA WILL WORK EAST THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTN/EVE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD MVFR OR LOW END VFR
CIGS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ008-016-
     027>030-038-039-049-052.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-004-005-
     007-008-013-014.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 281745
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT EXITED THE KBDE AREA. OTHERWISE
CLOUDS ARE HANGING BACK OVER AREAS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE DEVILS LAKE AREA...WITH THE MOST SUN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND. WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTHWEST OVER MOST OF THE
FA TOO...SO WILL NOW LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO INCREASE. WILL LIKELY
ADD A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY WITH THE 3 PM
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

150+M HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN MAN AND ONTARIO FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG MT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST SASK FORECAST TO DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 18Z THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 48
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE AREA
AND OVER 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN SD. EAST-WEST CROSS SECTION INDICATES
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOIST AIR SHIFTS EAST TODAY AS DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTH...OVER SD OR ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CURRENT LINE.  MAY KEEP THE SAME TREND FOR
TODAY. LINE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ADIABATIC LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESSENTIALLY THROUGH WED EVENING EXCEPTING 12Z WED. WINDS TO 60 KNOTS
IN THIS LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MAY NEED A HIGH WIND WARNING NORTHWEST
ZONES...WILL LET NEXT SHIFT DETERMINE IF NEEDED. WINDY YET WED
MORNING AND DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TUE
NIGHT AND WED.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
THU AFTER AND EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
THE BEST WAVE THIS WEEKEND. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY
CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON IF WAVES COME THROUGH AT MAX HEATING...SO
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHAT DAY COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UNSEASONABLY STRONG FOR MID SUMMER SFC LOW AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AS IT DOES LOOK
FOR WINDS TO SHIFT FROM A MORE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TO A MORE WEST DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND THEN WEST-
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. BIG ISSUE IS WIND SPEEDS AND HOW HIGH.
HIGHEST WIND CORE ALOFT AT 925-850 MB (40-50 KTS) COMES OVER NE ND
OVERNIGHT AND NOT AT TIME OF PEAK HEATING. THUS NOT EXPECTING THAT
TO REACH THE SFC. HOWEVER...ENOUGH GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE SFC LOW
FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 KTS IN ERN ND/RRV WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THRU THE AFTN AND THRU THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A BIT LIGHTER
WINDS THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. HIGH WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...WHERE AROUND DVL SOME WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS PSBL LATE
THIS AFTN-EVE. DRY SLOT AND CLEARING AREA WILL WORK EAST THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTN/EVE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD MVFR OR LOW END VFR
CIGS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ008-016-
     027>030-038-039-049-052.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-004-005-
     007-008-013-014.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 281745
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT EXITED THE KBDE AREA. OTHERWISE
CLOUDS ARE HANGING BACK OVER AREAS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE DEVILS LAKE AREA...WITH THE MOST SUN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND. WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTHWEST OVER MOST OF THE
FA TOO...SO WILL NOW LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO INCREASE. WILL LIKELY
ADD A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY WITH THE 3 PM
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

150+M HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN MAN AND ONTARIO FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG MT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST SASK FORECAST TO DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 18Z THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 48
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE AREA
AND OVER 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN SD. EAST-WEST CROSS SECTION INDICATES
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOIST AIR SHIFTS EAST TODAY AS DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTH...OVER SD OR ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CURRENT LINE.  MAY KEEP THE SAME TREND FOR
TODAY. LINE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ADIABATIC LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESSENTIALLY THROUGH WED EVENING EXCEPTING 12Z WED. WINDS TO 60 KNOTS
IN THIS LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MAY NEED A HIGH WIND WARNING NORTHWEST
ZONES...WILL LET NEXT SHIFT DETERMINE IF NEEDED. WINDY YET WED
MORNING AND DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TUE
NIGHT AND WED.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
THU AFTER AND EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
THE BEST WAVE THIS WEEKEND. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY
CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON IF WAVES COME THROUGH AT MAX HEATING...SO
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHAT DAY COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UNSEASONABLY STRONG FOR MID SUMMER SFC LOW AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AS IT DOES LOOK
FOR WINDS TO SHIFT FROM A MORE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TO A MORE WEST DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND THEN WEST-
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. BIG ISSUE IS WIND SPEEDS AND HOW HIGH.
HIGHEST WIND CORE ALOFT AT 925-850 MB (40-50 KTS) COMES OVER NE ND
OVERNIGHT AND NOT AT TIME OF PEAK HEATING. THUS NOT EXPECTING THAT
TO REACH THE SFC. HOWEVER...ENOUGH GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE SFC LOW
FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 KTS IN ERN ND/RRV WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THRU THE AFTN AND THRU THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A BIT LIGHTER
WINDS THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. HIGH WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...WHERE AROUND DVL SOME WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS PSBL LATE
THIS AFTN-EVE. DRY SLOT AND CLEARING AREA WILL WORK EAST THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTN/EVE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD MVFR OR LOW END VFR
CIGS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ008-016-
     027>030-038-039-049-052.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-004-005-
     007-008-013-014.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 281745
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT EXITED THE KBDE AREA. OTHERWISE
CLOUDS ARE HANGING BACK OVER AREAS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE DEVILS LAKE AREA...WITH THE MOST SUN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND. WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTHWEST OVER MOST OF THE
FA TOO...SO WILL NOW LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO INCREASE. WILL LIKELY
ADD A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY WITH THE 3 PM
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

150+M HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN MAN AND ONTARIO FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG MT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST SASK FORECAST TO DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 18Z THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 48
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE AREA
AND OVER 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN SD. EAST-WEST CROSS SECTION INDICATES
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOIST AIR SHIFTS EAST TODAY AS DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTH...OVER SD OR ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CURRENT LINE.  MAY KEEP THE SAME TREND FOR
TODAY. LINE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ADIABATIC LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESSENTIALLY THROUGH WED EVENING EXCEPTING 12Z WED. WINDS TO 60 KNOTS
IN THIS LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MAY NEED A HIGH WIND WARNING NORTHWEST
ZONES...WILL LET NEXT SHIFT DETERMINE IF NEEDED. WINDY YET WED
MORNING AND DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TUE
NIGHT AND WED.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
THU AFTER AND EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
THE BEST WAVE THIS WEEKEND. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY
CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON IF WAVES COME THROUGH AT MAX HEATING...SO
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHAT DAY COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UNSEASONABLY STRONG FOR MID SUMMER SFC LOW AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AS IT DOES LOOK
FOR WINDS TO SHIFT FROM A MORE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TO A MORE WEST DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND THEN WEST-
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. BIG ISSUE IS WIND SPEEDS AND HOW HIGH.
HIGHEST WIND CORE ALOFT AT 925-850 MB (40-50 KTS) COMES OVER NE ND
OVERNIGHT AND NOT AT TIME OF PEAK HEATING. THUS NOT EXPECTING THAT
TO REACH THE SFC. HOWEVER...ENOUGH GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE SFC LOW
FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 KTS IN ERN ND/RRV WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THRU THE AFTN AND THRU THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A BIT LIGHTER
WINDS THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. HIGH WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...WHERE AROUND DVL SOME WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS PSBL LATE
THIS AFTN-EVE. DRY SLOT AND CLEARING AREA WILL WORK EAST THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTN/EVE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD MVFR OR LOW END VFR
CIGS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ008-016-
     027>030-038-039-049-052.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-004-005-
     007-008-013-014.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KBIS 281744
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1244 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WINDS INCREASING TODAY. WILL BE AT WARNING CRITERIA SOON
SOUTHWEST. INCREASED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION BASED ON SATELLITE
LOOPS. BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP SOUTH CENTRAL 1 TO 2 DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DEEP SURFACE LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN FORECAST
TO TRACK EAST INTO MANITOBA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BAND OF H850
WINDS FROM 50 TO 65KT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. PEAK WINDS WILL
BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SMALL AMOUNT OF CAPE
FORECAST AT KISN THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ADD
THUNDERSTORMS TO AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ARE ALREADY GUSTING OVER 30
MPH. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE LOW WORKS SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE EAST. GOING FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING IS A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND A WIND ADVISORY
FOR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT OVERTAKING WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME...WITH UPSTREAM WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
20KT TO 25KT. 997MB SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MANITOBA TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG TEMPERATURE/PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO VERY STRONG WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER PER NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS OF 50KT AND 60KT
COMMON AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40
MPH EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY
BE REALIZED IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...WHERE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL HELP TRANSFER HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...A HIGH WIND WARNING COVERS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WINDS HERE WILL FALL MORE IN LINE WITH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUS SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE FAR NORTH NEAR
CROSBY...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL CAPE AT BEST..THUS WILL KEEP
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW PER REGIONAL RADAR
WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS BEING MAINTAINED IN THE
NORTH THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LOW WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER ON WEDNESDAY...THROUGH A STRONG ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO BRING A BREEZY DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT...THOUGH STILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MODELS START TO DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF
AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. HAZARD
TO AVIATION WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 35 TO 50
KTS KISN-KDIK-KMOT-KBIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 30KTS OR LESS AFTER 04Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-031>034-040>044.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ037-045>048-
050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-
011>013-021>023-025-035-036.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA



000
FXUS63 KBIS 281744
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1244 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WINDS INCREASING TODAY. WILL BE AT WARNING CRITERIA SOON
SOUTHWEST. INCREASED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION BASED ON SATELLITE
LOOPS. BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP SOUTH CENTRAL 1 TO 2 DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DEEP SURFACE LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN FORECAST
TO TRACK EAST INTO MANITOBA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BAND OF H850
WINDS FROM 50 TO 65KT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. PEAK WINDS WILL
BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SMALL AMOUNT OF CAPE
FORECAST AT KISN THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ADD
THUNDERSTORMS TO AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ARE ALREADY GUSTING OVER 30
MPH. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE LOW WORKS SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE EAST. GOING FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING IS A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND A WIND ADVISORY
FOR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT OVERTAKING WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME...WITH UPSTREAM WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
20KT TO 25KT. 997MB SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MANITOBA TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG TEMPERATURE/PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO VERY STRONG WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER PER NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS OF 50KT AND 60KT
COMMON AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40
MPH EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY
BE REALIZED IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...WHERE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL HELP TRANSFER HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...A HIGH WIND WARNING COVERS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WINDS HERE WILL FALL MORE IN LINE WITH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUS SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE FAR NORTH NEAR
CROSBY...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL CAPE AT BEST..THUS WILL KEEP
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW PER REGIONAL RADAR
WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS BEING MAINTAINED IN THE
NORTH THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LOW WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER ON WEDNESDAY...THROUGH A STRONG ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO BRING A BREEZY DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT...THOUGH STILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MODELS START TO DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF
AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. HAZARD
TO AVIATION WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 35 TO 50
KTS KISN-KDIK-KMOT-KBIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 30KTS OR LESS AFTER 04Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-031>034-040>044.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ037-045>048-
050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-
011>013-021>023-025-035-036.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 281744
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1244 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WINDS INCREASING TODAY. WILL BE AT WARNING CRITERIA SOON
SOUTHWEST. INCREASED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION BASED ON SATELLITE
LOOPS. BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP SOUTH CENTRAL 1 TO 2 DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DEEP SURFACE LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN FORECAST
TO TRACK EAST INTO MANITOBA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BAND OF H850
WINDS FROM 50 TO 65KT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. PEAK WINDS WILL
BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SMALL AMOUNT OF CAPE
FORECAST AT KISN THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ADD
THUNDERSTORMS TO AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ARE ALREADY GUSTING OVER 30
MPH. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE LOW WORKS SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE EAST. GOING FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING IS A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND A WIND ADVISORY
FOR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT OVERTAKING WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME...WITH UPSTREAM WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
20KT TO 25KT. 997MB SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MANITOBA TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG TEMPERATURE/PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO VERY STRONG WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER PER NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS OF 50KT AND 60KT
COMMON AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40
MPH EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY
BE REALIZED IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...WHERE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL HELP TRANSFER HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...A HIGH WIND WARNING COVERS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WINDS HERE WILL FALL MORE IN LINE WITH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUS SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE FAR NORTH NEAR
CROSBY...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL CAPE AT BEST..THUS WILL KEEP
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW PER REGIONAL RADAR
WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS BEING MAINTAINED IN THE
NORTH THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LOW WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER ON WEDNESDAY...THROUGH A STRONG ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO BRING A BREEZY DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT...THOUGH STILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MODELS START TO DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF
AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. HAZARD
TO AVIATION WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 35 TO 50
KTS KISN-KDIK-KMOT-KBIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 30KTS OR LESS AFTER 04Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-031>034-040>044.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ037-045>048-
050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-
011>013-021>023-025-035-036.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA



000
FXUS63 KBIS 281744
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1244 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WINDS INCREASING TODAY. WILL BE AT WARNING CRITERIA SOON
SOUTHWEST. INCREASED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION BASED ON SATELLITE
LOOPS. BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP SOUTH CENTRAL 1 TO 2 DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DEEP SURFACE LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN FORECAST
TO TRACK EAST INTO MANITOBA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BAND OF H850
WINDS FROM 50 TO 65KT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. PEAK WINDS WILL
BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SMALL AMOUNT OF CAPE
FORECAST AT KISN THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ADD
THUNDERSTORMS TO AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ARE ALREADY GUSTING OVER 30
MPH. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE LOW WORKS SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE EAST. GOING FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING IS A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND A WIND ADVISORY
FOR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT OVERTAKING WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME...WITH UPSTREAM WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
20KT TO 25KT. 997MB SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MANITOBA TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG TEMPERATURE/PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO VERY STRONG WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER PER NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS OF 50KT AND 60KT
COMMON AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40
MPH EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY
BE REALIZED IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...WHERE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL HELP TRANSFER HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...A HIGH WIND WARNING COVERS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WINDS HERE WILL FALL MORE IN LINE WITH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUS SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE FAR NORTH NEAR
CROSBY...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL CAPE AT BEST..THUS WILL KEEP
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW PER REGIONAL RADAR
WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS BEING MAINTAINED IN THE
NORTH THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LOW WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER ON WEDNESDAY...THROUGH A STRONG ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO BRING A BREEZY DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT...THOUGH STILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MODELS START TO DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF
AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. HAZARD
TO AVIATION WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 35 TO 50
KTS KISN-KDIK-KMOT-KBIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 30KTS OR LESS AFTER 04Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-031>034-040>044.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ037-045>048-
050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-
011>013-021>023-025-035-036.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KFGF 281544
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1044 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WIND SPEEDS INCREASING QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF ND.
AS A RESULT DECIDED TO BUMP UP THE START TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY
IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA TO 1 PM. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS
PROGRESS OUT WEST AS THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WHEN CONDITIONS ARE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA FOR AT LEAST EDDY/BENSON/RAMSEY COUNTIES. MAY
ALSO EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE FA...BUT WILL
DEAL WITH THAT IN LATER UPDATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

150+M HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN MAN AND ONTARIO FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG MT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST SASK FORECAST TO DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 18Z THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 48
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE AREA
AND OVER 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN SD. EAST-WEST CROSS SECTION INDICATES
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOIST AIR SHIFTS EAST TODAY AS DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTH...OVER SD OR ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CURRENT LINE.  MAY KEEP THE SAME TREND FOR
TODAY. LINE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ADIABATIC LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESSENTIALLY THROUGH WED EVENING EXCEPTING 12Z WED. WINDS TO 60 KNOTS
IN THIS LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MAY NEED A HIGH WIND WARNING NORTHWEST
ZONES...WILL LET NEXT SHIFT DETERMINE IF NEEDED. WINDY YET WED
MORNING AND DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TUE
NIGHT AND WED.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
THU AFTER AND EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
THE BEST WAVE THIS WEEKEND. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY
CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON IF WAVES COME THROUGH AT MAX HEATING...SO
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHAT DAY COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MVFR CIGS WERE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. CIGS
WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 HUNDRED AND 20 HUNDRED FT. SOME IFR CIGS
OF 4 TO 6 HUNDRED FT WAS IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO SHIFT EAST THIS
MORNING. MVFR TO VFR CIGS BETWEEN 1 THOUSAND AND 4 THOUSAND FT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-054.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ008-016-027>030-038-039-049-052.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013-014.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...HOPPES



000
FXUS63 KFGF 281544
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1044 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WIND SPEEDS INCREASING QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF ND.
AS A RESULT DECIDED TO BUMP UP THE START TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY
IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA TO 1 PM. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS
PROGRESS OUT WEST AS THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WHEN CONDITIONS ARE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA FOR AT LEAST EDDY/BENSON/RAMSEY COUNTIES. MAY
ALSO EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE FA...BUT WILL
DEAL WITH THAT IN LATER UPDATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

150+M HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN MAN AND ONTARIO FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG MT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST SASK FORECAST TO DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 18Z THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 48
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE AREA
AND OVER 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN SD. EAST-WEST CROSS SECTION INDICATES
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOIST AIR SHIFTS EAST TODAY AS DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTH...OVER SD OR ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CURRENT LINE.  MAY KEEP THE SAME TREND FOR
TODAY. LINE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ADIABATIC LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESSENTIALLY THROUGH WED EVENING EXCEPTING 12Z WED. WINDS TO 60 KNOTS
IN THIS LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MAY NEED A HIGH WIND WARNING NORTHWEST
ZONES...WILL LET NEXT SHIFT DETERMINE IF NEEDED. WINDY YET WED
MORNING AND DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TUE
NIGHT AND WED.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
THU AFTER AND EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
THE BEST WAVE THIS WEEKEND. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY
CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON IF WAVES COME THROUGH AT MAX HEATING...SO
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHAT DAY COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MVFR CIGS WERE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. CIGS
WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 HUNDRED AND 20 HUNDRED FT. SOME IFR CIGS
OF 4 TO 6 HUNDRED FT WAS IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO SHIFT EAST THIS
MORNING. MVFR TO VFR CIGS BETWEEN 1 THOUSAND AND 4 THOUSAND FT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-054.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ008-016-027>030-038-039-049-052.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013-014.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KBIS 281453
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
953 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DEEP SURFACE LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN FORECAST
TO TRACK EAST INTO MANITOBA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BAND OF H850
WINDS FROM 50 TO 65KT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. PEAK WINDS WILL
BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SMALL AMOUNT OF CAPE
FORECAST AT KISN THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ADD
THUNDERSTORMS TO AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ARE ALREADY GUSTING OVER 30
MPH. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE LOW WORKS SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE EAST. GOING FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING IS A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND A WIND ADVISORY
FOR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT OVERTAKING WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME...WITH UPSTREAM WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
20KT TO 25KT. 997MB SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MANITOBA TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG TEMPERATURE/PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO VERY STRONG WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER PER NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS OF 50KT AND 60KT
COMMON AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40
MPH EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY
BE REALIZED IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...WHERE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL HELP TRANSFER HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...A HIGH WIND WARNING COVERS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WINDS HERE WILL FALL MORE IN LINE WITH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUS SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE FAR NORTH NEAR
CROSBY...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL CAPE AT BEST..THUS WILL KEEP
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW PER REGIONAL RADAR
WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS BEING MAINTAINED IN THE
NORTH THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LOW WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER ON WEDNESDAY...THROUGH A STRONG ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO BRING A BREEZY DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT...THOUGH STILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MODELS START TO DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF
AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KJMS. KJMS WILL EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL  WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 06Z BUT
STILL RANGE FROM 15KT TO 30KT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.

RAINSHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST UNTIL 03Z WEDNESDAY AT KISN.
KDIK/KMOT/KBIS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY
16Z TUESDAY...BUT REMAINING GENERALLY DRY. HOWEVER THE SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO KMOT TUESDAY EVENING WITH LOW VFR CIGS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-031>034-040>044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ037-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025-035-036.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 281453
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
953 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DEEP SURFACE LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN FORECAST
TO TRACK EAST INTO MANITOBA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BAND OF H850
WINDS FROM 50 TO 65KT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. PEAK WINDS WILL
BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SMALL AMOUNT OF CAPE
FORECAST AT KISN THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ADD
THUNDERSTORMS TO AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ARE ALREADY GUSTING OVER 30
MPH. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE LOW WORKS SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE EAST. GOING FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING IS A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND A WIND ADVISORY
FOR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT OVERTAKING WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME...WITH UPSTREAM WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
20KT TO 25KT. 997MB SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MANITOBA TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG TEMPERATURE/PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO VERY STRONG WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER PER NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS OF 50KT AND 60KT
COMMON AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40
MPH EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY
BE REALIZED IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...WHERE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL HELP TRANSFER HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...A HIGH WIND WARNING COVERS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WINDS HERE WILL FALL MORE IN LINE WITH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUS SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE FAR NORTH NEAR
CROSBY...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL CAPE AT BEST..THUS WILL KEEP
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW PER REGIONAL RADAR
WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS BEING MAINTAINED IN THE
NORTH THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LOW WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER ON WEDNESDAY...THROUGH A STRONG ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO BRING A BREEZY DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT...THOUGH STILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MODELS START TO DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF
AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KJMS. KJMS WILL EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL  WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 06Z BUT
STILL RANGE FROM 15KT TO 30KT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.

RAINSHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST UNTIL 03Z WEDNESDAY AT KISN.
KDIK/KMOT/KBIS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY
16Z TUESDAY...BUT REMAINING GENERALLY DRY. HOWEVER THE SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO KMOT TUESDAY EVENING WITH LOW VFR CIGS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-031>034-040>044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ037-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025-035-036.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 281453
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
953 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DEEP SURFACE LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN FORECAST
TO TRACK EAST INTO MANITOBA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BAND OF H850
WINDS FROM 50 TO 65KT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. PEAK WINDS WILL
BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SMALL AMOUNT OF CAPE
FORECAST AT KISN THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ADD
THUNDERSTORMS TO AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ARE ALREADY GUSTING OVER 30
MPH. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE LOW WORKS SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE EAST. GOING FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING IS A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND A WIND ADVISORY
FOR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT OVERTAKING WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME...WITH UPSTREAM WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
20KT TO 25KT. 997MB SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MANITOBA TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG TEMPERATURE/PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO VERY STRONG WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER PER NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS OF 50KT AND 60KT
COMMON AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40
MPH EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY
BE REALIZED IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...WHERE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL HELP TRANSFER HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...A HIGH WIND WARNING COVERS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WINDS HERE WILL FALL MORE IN LINE WITH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUS SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE FAR NORTH NEAR
CROSBY...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL CAPE AT BEST..THUS WILL KEEP
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW PER REGIONAL RADAR
WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS BEING MAINTAINED IN THE
NORTH THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LOW WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER ON WEDNESDAY...THROUGH A STRONG ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO BRING A BREEZY DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT...THOUGH STILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MODELS START TO DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF
AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KJMS. KJMS WILL EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL  WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 06Z BUT
STILL RANGE FROM 15KT TO 30KT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.

RAINSHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST UNTIL 03Z WEDNESDAY AT KISN.
KDIK/KMOT/KBIS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY
16Z TUESDAY...BUT REMAINING GENERALLY DRY. HOWEVER THE SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO KMOT TUESDAY EVENING WITH LOW VFR CIGS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-031>034-040>044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ037-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025-035-036.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 281453
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
953 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DEEP SURFACE LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN FORECAST
TO TRACK EAST INTO MANITOBA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BAND OF H850
WINDS FROM 50 TO 65KT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. PEAK WINDS WILL
BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SMALL AMOUNT OF CAPE
FORECAST AT KISN THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ADD
THUNDERSTORMS TO AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ARE ALREADY GUSTING OVER 30
MPH. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE LOW WORKS SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE EAST. GOING FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING IS A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND A WIND ADVISORY
FOR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT OVERTAKING WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME...WITH UPSTREAM WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
20KT TO 25KT. 997MB SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MANITOBA TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG TEMPERATURE/PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO VERY STRONG WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER PER NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS OF 50KT AND 60KT
COMMON AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40
MPH EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY
BE REALIZED IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...WHERE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL HELP TRANSFER HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...A HIGH WIND WARNING COVERS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WINDS HERE WILL FALL MORE IN LINE WITH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUS SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE FAR NORTH NEAR
CROSBY...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL CAPE AT BEST..THUS WILL KEEP
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW PER REGIONAL RADAR
WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS BEING MAINTAINED IN THE
NORTH THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LOW WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER ON WEDNESDAY...THROUGH A STRONG ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO BRING A BREEZY DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT...THOUGH STILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MODELS START TO DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF
AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KJMS. KJMS WILL EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL  WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 06Z BUT
STILL RANGE FROM 15KT TO 30KT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.

RAINSHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST UNTIL 03Z WEDNESDAY AT KISN.
KDIK/KMOT/KBIS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY
16Z TUESDAY...BUT REMAINING GENERALLY DRY. HOWEVER THE SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO KMOT TUESDAY EVENING WITH LOW VFR CIGS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-031>034-040>044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ037-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025-035-036.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 281452
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
952 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AFTER COORDINATING WITH EASTERN BORDER OFFICES HAVE REMOVED THE
AFTERNOON PCPN CHANCES COMPLETELY. THE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE
KBJI TO KBDE AREA SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA SO MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY THRU THE DAY. WINDS STILL ON TAP FOR
INCREASING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL LOOK OVER 12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE TO SEE IF A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NEEDED ACROSS THE DEVILS
LAKE REGION OR IF THE WIND ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER
EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

150+M HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN MAN AND ONTARIO FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG MT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST SASK FORECAST TO DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 18Z THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 48
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE AREA
AND OVER 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN SD. EAST-WEST CROSS SECTION INDICATES
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOIST AIR SHIFTS EAST TODAY AS DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTH...OVER SD OR ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CURRENT LINE.  MAY KEEP THE SAME TREND FOR
TODAY. LINE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ADIABATIC LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESSENTIALLY THROUGH WED EVENING EXCEPTING 12Z WED. WINDS TO 60 KNOTS
IN THIS LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MAY NEED A HIGH WIND WARNING NORTHWEST
ZONES...WILL LET NEXT SHIFT DETERMINE IF NEEDED. WINDY YET WED
MORNING AND DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TUE
NIGHT AND WED.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
THU AFTER AND EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
THE BEST WAVE THIS WEEKEND. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY
CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON IF WAVES COME THROUGH AT MAX HEATING...SO
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHAT DAY COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MVFR CIGS WERE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. CIGS
WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 HUNDRED AND 20 HUNDRED FT. SOME IFR CIGS
OF 4 TO 6 HUNDRED FT WAS IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO SHIFT EAST THIS
MORNING. MVFR TO VFR CIGS BETWEEN 1 THOUSAND AND 4 THOUSAND FT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052-054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013-014.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...HOPPES



000
FXUS63 KFGF 281452
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
952 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AFTER COORDINATING WITH EASTERN BORDER OFFICES HAVE REMOVED THE
AFTERNOON PCPN CHANCES COMPLETELY. THE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE
KBJI TO KBDE AREA SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA SO MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY THRU THE DAY. WINDS STILL ON TAP FOR
INCREASING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL LOOK OVER 12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE TO SEE IF A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NEEDED ACROSS THE DEVILS
LAKE REGION OR IF THE WIND ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER
EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

150+M HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN MAN AND ONTARIO FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG MT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST SASK FORECAST TO DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 18Z THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 48
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE AREA
AND OVER 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN SD. EAST-WEST CROSS SECTION INDICATES
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOIST AIR SHIFTS EAST TODAY AS DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTH...OVER SD OR ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CURRENT LINE.  MAY KEEP THE SAME TREND FOR
TODAY. LINE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ADIABATIC LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESSENTIALLY THROUGH WED EVENING EXCEPTING 12Z WED. WINDS TO 60 KNOTS
IN THIS LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MAY NEED A HIGH WIND WARNING NORTHWEST
ZONES...WILL LET NEXT SHIFT DETERMINE IF NEEDED. WINDY YET WED
MORNING AND DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TUE
NIGHT AND WED.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
THU AFTER AND EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
THE BEST WAVE THIS WEEKEND. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY
CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON IF WAVES COME THROUGH AT MAX HEATING...SO
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHAT DAY COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MVFR CIGS WERE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. CIGS
WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 HUNDRED AND 20 HUNDRED FT. SOME IFR CIGS
OF 4 TO 6 HUNDRED FT WAS IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO SHIFT EAST THIS
MORNING. MVFR TO VFR CIGS BETWEEN 1 THOUSAND AND 4 THOUSAND FT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052-054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013-014.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...HOPPES



000
FXUS63 KFGF 281452
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
952 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AFTER COORDINATING WITH EASTERN BORDER OFFICES HAVE REMOVED THE
AFTERNOON PCPN CHANCES COMPLETELY. THE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE
KBJI TO KBDE AREA SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA SO MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY THRU THE DAY. WINDS STILL ON TAP FOR
INCREASING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL LOOK OVER 12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE TO SEE IF A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NEEDED ACROSS THE DEVILS
LAKE REGION OR IF THE WIND ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER
EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

150+M HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN MAN AND ONTARIO FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG MT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST SASK FORECAST TO DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 18Z THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 48
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE AREA
AND OVER 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN SD. EAST-WEST CROSS SECTION INDICATES
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOIST AIR SHIFTS EAST TODAY AS DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTH...OVER SD OR ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CURRENT LINE.  MAY KEEP THE SAME TREND FOR
TODAY. LINE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ADIABATIC LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESSENTIALLY THROUGH WED EVENING EXCEPTING 12Z WED. WINDS TO 60 KNOTS
IN THIS LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MAY NEED A HIGH WIND WARNING NORTHWEST
ZONES...WILL LET NEXT SHIFT DETERMINE IF NEEDED. WINDY YET WED
MORNING AND DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TUE
NIGHT AND WED.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
THU AFTER AND EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
THE BEST WAVE THIS WEEKEND. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY
CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON IF WAVES COME THROUGH AT MAX HEATING...SO
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHAT DAY COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MVFR CIGS WERE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. CIGS
WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 HUNDRED AND 20 HUNDRED FT. SOME IFR CIGS
OF 4 TO 6 HUNDRED FT WAS IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO SHIFT EAST THIS
MORNING. MVFR TO VFR CIGS BETWEEN 1 THOUSAND AND 4 THOUSAND FT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052-054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013-014.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...HOPPES



000
FXUS63 KFGF 281452
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
952 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AFTER COORDINATING WITH EASTERN BORDER OFFICES HAVE REMOVED THE
AFTERNOON PCPN CHANCES COMPLETELY. THE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE
KBJI TO KBDE AREA SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA SO MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY THRU THE DAY. WINDS STILL ON TAP FOR
INCREASING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL LOOK OVER 12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE TO SEE IF A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NEEDED ACROSS THE DEVILS
LAKE REGION OR IF THE WIND ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER
EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

150+M HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN MAN AND ONTARIO FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG MT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST SASK FORECAST TO DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 18Z THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 48
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE AREA
AND OVER 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN SD. EAST-WEST CROSS SECTION INDICATES
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOIST AIR SHIFTS EAST TODAY AS DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTH...OVER SD OR ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CURRENT LINE.  MAY KEEP THE SAME TREND FOR
TODAY. LINE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ADIABATIC LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESSENTIALLY THROUGH WED EVENING EXCEPTING 12Z WED. WINDS TO 60 KNOTS
IN THIS LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MAY NEED A HIGH WIND WARNING NORTHWEST
ZONES...WILL LET NEXT SHIFT DETERMINE IF NEEDED. WINDY YET WED
MORNING AND DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TUE
NIGHT AND WED.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
THU AFTER AND EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
THE BEST WAVE THIS WEEKEND. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY
CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON IF WAVES COME THROUGH AT MAX HEATING...SO
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHAT DAY COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MVFR CIGS WERE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. CIGS
WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 HUNDRED AND 20 HUNDRED FT. SOME IFR CIGS
OF 4 TO 6 HUNDRED FT WAS IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO SHIFT EAST THIS
MORNING. MVFR TO VFR CIGS BETWEEN 1 THOUSAND AND 4 THOUSAND FT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052-054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013-014.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...HOPPES



000
FXUS63 KFGF 281352
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
852 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS ARE THINNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY ALREADY...AND CLOUDS EAST OF THE VALLEY SHOULD THIN OUT
BY LATER MORNING. THERE ARE STILL SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE KBJI TO
KBDE AREA...BUT NO LONGER ANY LIGHTNING THERE. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH EAST THIS MORNING TOO LEAVING MOST AREAS DRY
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE YET ABOUT ANY REDEVELOPMENT
OVER OUR MN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP KEEPS IT DRY WHILE
THE LATEST NAM12 SHOWS A SMALL BIT OF REDEVELOPMENT. EITHER WAY
NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER FROM IT. MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE
THE INCREASING WEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

150+M HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN MAN AND ONTARIO FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG MT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST SASK FORECAST TO DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 18Z THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 48
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE AREA
AND OVER 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN SD. EAST-WEST CROSS SECTION INDICATES
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOIST AIR SHIFTS EAST TODAY AS DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTH...OVER SD OR ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CURRENT LINE.  MAY KEEP THE SAME TREND FOR
TODAY. LINE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ADIABATIC LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESSENTIALLY THROUGH WED EVENING EXCEPTING 12Z WED. WINDS TO 60 KNOTS
IN THIS LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MAY NEED A HIGH WIND WARNING NORTHWEST
ZONES...WILL LET NEXT SHIFT DETERMINE IF NEEDED. WINDY YET WED
MORNING AND DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TUE
NIGHT AND WED.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
THU AFTER AND EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
THE BEST WAVE THIS WEEKEND. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY
CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON IF WAVES COME THROUGH AT MAX HEATING...SO
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHAT DAY COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MVFR CIGS WERE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. CIGS
WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 HUNDRED AND 20 HUNDRED FT. SOME IFR CIGS
OF 4 TO 6 HUNDRED FT WAS IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO SHIFT EAST THIS
MORNING. MVFR TO VFR CIGS BETWEEN 1 THOUSAND AND 4 THOUSAND FT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052-054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013-014.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...HOPPES



000
FXUS63 KFGF 281352
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
852 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS ARE THINNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY ALREADY...AND CLOUDS EAST OF THE VALLEY SHOULD THIN OUT
BY LATER MORNING. THERE ARE STILL SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE KBJI TO
KBDE AREA...BUT NO LONGER ANY LIGHTNING THERE. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH EAST THIS MORNING TOO LEAVING MOST AREAS DRY
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE YET ABOUT ANY REDEVELOPMENT
OVER OUR MN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP KEEPS IT DRY WHILE
THE LATEST NAM12 SHOWS A SMALL BIT OF REDEVELOPMENT. EITHER WAY
NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER FROM IT. MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE
THE INCREASING WEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

150+M HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN MAN AND ONTARIO FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG MT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST SASK FORECAST TO DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 18Z THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 48
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE AREA
AND OVER 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN SD. EAST-WEST CROSS SECTION INDICATES
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOIST AIR SHIFTS EAST TODAY AS DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTH...OVER SD OR ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CURRENT LINE.  MAY KEEP THE SAME TREND FOR
TODAY. LINE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ADIABATIC LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESSENTIALLY THROUGH WED EVENING EXCEPTING 12Z WED. WINDS TO 60 KNOTS
IN THIS LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MAY NEED A HIGH WIND WARNING NORTHWEST
ZONES...WILL LET NEXT SHIFT DETERMINE IF NEEDED. WINDY YET WED
MORNING AND DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TUE
NIGHT AND WED.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
THU AFTER AND EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
THE BEST WAVE THIS WEEKEND. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY
CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON IF WAVES COME THROUGH AT MAX HEATING...SO
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHAT DAY COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MVFR CIGS WERE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. CIGS
WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 HUNDRED AND 20 HUNDRED FT. SOME IFR CIGS
OF 4 TO 6 HUNDRED FT WAS IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO SHIFT EAST THIS
MORNING. MVFR TO VFR CIGS BETWEEN 1 THOUSAND AND 4 THOUSAND FT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052-054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013-014.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 281202
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
702 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN AREA. PRECIP WAS
CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND EAST AREAS AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST.
EXPECT STORM TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ON THE MN SIDE AND MOVES OUT
BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

150+M HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN MAN AND ONTARIO FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG MT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST SASK FORECAST TO DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 18Z THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 48
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE AREA
AND OVER 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN SD. EAST-WEST CROSS SECTION INDICATES
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOIST AIR SHIFTS EAST TODAY AS DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTH...OVER SD OR ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CURRENT LINE.  MAY KEEP THE SAME TREND FOR
TODAY. LINE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ADIABATIC LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESSENTIALLY THROUGH WED EVENING EXCEPTING 12Z WED. WINDS TO 60 KNOTS
IN THIS LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MAY NEED A HIGH WIND WARNING NORTHWEST
ZONES...WILL LET NEXT SHIFT DETERMINE IF NEEDED. WINDY YET WED
MORNING AND DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TUE
NIGHT AND WED.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
THU AFTER AND EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
THE BEST WAVE THIS WEEKEND. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY
CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON IF WAVES COME THROUGH AT MAX HEATING...SO
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHAT DAY COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MVFR CIGS WERE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. CIGS
WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 HUNDRED AND 20 HUNDRED FT. SOME IFR CIGS
OF 4 TO 6 HUNDRED FT WAS IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO SHIFT EAST THIS
MORNING. MVFR TO VFR CIGS BETWEEN 1 THOUSAND AND 4 THOUSAND FT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052-054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013-014.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 281202
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
702 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN AREA. PRECIP WAS
CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND EAST AREAS AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST.
EXPECT STORM TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ON THE MN SIDE AND MOVES OUT
BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

150+M HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN MAN AND ONTARIO FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG MT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST SASK FORECAST TO DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 18Z THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 48
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE AREA
AND OVER 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN SD. EAST-WEST CROSS SECTION INDICATES
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOIST AIR SHIFTS EAST TODAY AS DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTH...OVER SD OR ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CURRENT LINE.  MAY KEEP THE SAME TREND FOR
TODAY. LINE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ADIABATIC LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESSENTIALLY THROUGH WED EVENING EXCEPTING 12Z WED. WINDS TO 60 KNOTS
IN THIS LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MAY NEED A HIGH WIND WARNING NORTHWEST
ZONES...WILL LET NEXT SHIFT DETERMINE IF NEEDED. WINDY YET WED
MORNING AND DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TUE
NIGHT AND WED.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
THU AFTER AND EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
THE BEST WAVE THIS WEEKEND. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY
CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON IF WAVES COME THROUGH AT MAX HEATING...SO
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHAT DAY COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MVFR CIGS WERE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. CIGS
WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 HUNDRED AND 20 HUNDRED FT. SOME IFR CIGS
OF 4 TO 6 HUNDRED FT WAS IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO SHIFT EAST THIS
MORNING. MVFR TO VFR CIGS BETWEEN 1 THOUSAND AND 4 THOUSAND FT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052-054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013-014.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KBIS 281134
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ARE ALREADY GUSTING OVER 30
MPH. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE LOW WORKS SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE EAST. GOING FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING IS A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND A WIND ADVISORY
FOR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT OVERTAKING WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME...WITH UPSTREAM WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
20KT TO 25KT. 997MB SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MANITOBA TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG TEMPERATURE/PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO VERY STRONG WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER PER NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS OF 50KT AND 60KT
COMMON AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40
MPH EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY
BE REALIZED IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...WHERE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL HELP TRANSFER HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...A HIGH WIND WARNING COVERS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WINDS HERE WILL FALL MORE IN LINE WITH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUS SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE FAR NORTH NEAR
CROSBY...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL CAPE AT BEST..THUS WILL KEEP
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW PER REGIONAL RADAR
WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS BEING MAINTAINED IN THE
NORTH THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LOW WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER ON WEDNESDAY...THROUGH A STRONG ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO BRING A BREEZY DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT...THOUGH STILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MODELS START TO DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF
AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KJMS. KJMS WILL EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL  WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 06Z BUT
STILL RANGE FROM 15KT TO 30KT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.

RAINSHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST UNTIL 03Z WEDNESDAY AT KISN.
KDIK/KMOT/KBIS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY
16Z TUESDAY...BUT REAMIN GENERALLY DRY. HOWEVER THE SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO KMOT TUESDAY EVENING WITH LOW VFR CIGS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-
031>034-040>044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ037-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025-035-036.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 281134
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ARE ALREADY GUSTING OVER 30
MPH. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE LOW WORKS SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE EAST. GOING FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING IS A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND A WIND ADVISORY
FOR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT OVERTAKING WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME...WITH UPSTREAM WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
20KT TO 25KT. 997MB SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MANITOBA TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG TEMPERATURE/PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO VERY STRONG WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER PER NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS OF 50KT AND 60KT
COMMON AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40
MPH EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY
BE REALIZED IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...WHERE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL HELP TRANSFER HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...A HIGH WIND WARNING COVERS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WINDS HERE WILL FALL MORE IN LINE WITH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUS SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE FAR NORTH NEAR
CROSBY...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL CAPE AT BEST..THUS WILL KEEP
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW PER REGIONAL RADAR
WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS BEING MAINTAINED IN THE
NORTH THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LOW WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER ON WEDNESDAY...THROUGH A STRONG ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO BRING A BREEZY DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT...THOUGH STILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MODELS START TO DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF
AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KJMS. KJMS WILL EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL  WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 06Z BUT
STILL RANGE FROM 15KT TO 30KT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.

RAINSHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST UNTIL 03Z WEDNESDAY AT KISN.
KDIK/KMOT/KBIS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY
16Z TUESDAY...BUT REAMIN GENERALLY DRY. HOWEVER THE SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO KMOT TUESDAY EVENING WITH LOW VFR CIGS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-
031>034-040>044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ037-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025-035-036.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 281134
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ARE ALREADY GUSTING OVER 30
MPH. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE LOW WORKS SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE EAST. GOING FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING IS A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND A WIND ADVISORY
FOR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT OVERTAKING WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME...WITH UPSTREAM WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
20KT TO 25KT. 997MB SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MANITOBA TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG TEMPERATURE/PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO VERY STRONG WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER PER NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS OF 50KT AND 60KT
COMMON AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40
MPH EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY
BE REALIZED IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...WHERE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL HELP TRANSFER HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...A HIGH WIND WARNING COVERS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WINDS HERE WILL FALL MORE IN LINE WITH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUS SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE FAR NORTH NEAR
CROSBY...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL CAPE AT BEST..THUS WILL KEEP
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW PER REGIONAL RADAR
WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS BEING MAINTAINED IN THE
NORTH THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LOW WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER ON WEDNESDAY...THROUGH A STRONG ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO BRING A BREEZY DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT...THOUGH STILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MODELS START TO DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF
AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KJMS. KJMS WILL EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL  WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 06Z BUT
STILL RANGE FROM 15KT TO 30KT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.

RAINSHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST UNTIL 03Z WEDNESDAY AT KISN.
KDIK/KMOT/KBIS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY
16Z TUESDAY...BUT REAMIN GENERALLY DRY. HOWEVER THE SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO KMOT TUESDAY EVENING WITH LOW VFR CIGS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-
031>034-040>044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ037-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025-035-036.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 281134
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ARE ALREADY GUSTING OVER 30
MPH. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE LOW WORKS SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE EAST. GOING FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING IS A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND A WIND ADVISORY
FOR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT OVERTAKING WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME...WITH UPSTREAM WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
20KT TO 25KT. 997MB SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MANITOBA TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG TEMPERATURE/PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO VERY STRONG WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER PER NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS OF 50KT AND 60KT
COMMON AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40
MPH EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY
BE REALIZED IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...WHERE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL HELP TRANSFER HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...A HIGH WIND WARNING COVERS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WINDS HERE WILL FALL MORE IN LINE WITH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUS SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE FAR NORTH NEAR
CROSBY...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL CAPE AT BEST..THUS WILL KEEP
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW PER REGIONAL RADAR
WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS BEING MAINTAINED IN THE
NORTH THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LOW WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER ON WEDNESDAY...THROUGH A STRONG ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO BRING A BREEZY DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT...THOUGH STILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MODELS START TO DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF
AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KJMS. KJMS WILL EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL  WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 06Z BUT
STILL RANGE FROM 15KT TO 30KT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.

RAINSHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST UNTIL 03Z WEDNESDAY AT KISN.
KDIK/KMOT/KBIS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY
16Z TUESDAY...BUT REAMIN GENERALLY DRY. HOWEVER THE SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO KMOT TUESDAY EVENING WITH LOW VFR CIGS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-
031>034-040>044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ037-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025-035-036.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 281134
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ARE ALREADY GUSTING OVER 30
MPH. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE LOW WORKS SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE EAST. GOING FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING IS A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND A WIND ADVISORY
FOR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT OVERTAKING WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME...WITH UPSTREAM WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
20KT TO 25KT. 997MB SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MANITOBA TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG TEMPERATURE/PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO VERY STRONG WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER PER NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS OF 50KT AND 60KT
COMMON AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40
MPH EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY
BE REALIZED IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...WHERE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL HELP TRANSFER HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...A HIGH WIND WARNING COVERS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WINDS HERE WILL FALL MORE IN LINE WITH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUS SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE FAR NORTH NEAR
CROSBY...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL CAPE AT BEST..THUS WILL KEEP
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW PER REGIONAL RADAR
WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS BEING MAINTAINED IN THE
NORTH THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LOW WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER ON WEDNESDAY...THROUGH A STRONG ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO BRING A BREEZY DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT...THOUGH STILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MODELS START TO DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF
AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KJMS. KJMS WILL EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL  WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 06Z BUT
STILL RANGE FROM 15KT TO 30KT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.

RAINSHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST UNTIL 03Z WEDNESDAY AT KISN.
KDIK/KMOT/KBIS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY
16Z TUESDAY...BUT REAMIN GENERALLY DRY. HOWEVER THE SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO KMOT TUESDAY EVENING WITH LOW VFR CIGS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-
031>034-040>044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ037-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025-035-036.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 281134
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ARE ALREADY GUSTING OVER 30
MPH. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE LOW WORKS SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE EAST. GOING FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING IS A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND A WIND ADVISORY
FOR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT OVERTAKING WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME...WITH UPSTREAM WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
20KT TO 25KT. 997MB SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MANITOBA TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG TEMPERATURE/PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO VERY STRONG WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER PER NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS OF 50KT AND 60KT
COMMON AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40
MPH EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY
BE REALIZED IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...WHERE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL HELP TRANSFER HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...A HIGH WIND WARNING COVERS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WINDS HERE WILL FALL MORE IN LINE WITH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUS SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE FAR NORTH NEAR
CROSBY...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL CAPE AT BEST..THUS WILL KEEP
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW PER REGIONAL RADAR
WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS BEING MAINTAINED IN THE
NORTH THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LOW WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER ON WEDNESDAY...THROUGH A STRONG ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO BRING A BREEZY DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT...THOUGH STILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MODELS START TO DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF
AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KJMS. KJMS WILL EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL  WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 06Z BUT
STILL RANGE FROM 15KT TO 30KT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.

RAINSHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST UNTIL 03Z WEDNESDAY AT KISN.
KDIK/KMOT/KBIS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY
16Z TUESDAY...BUT REAMIN GENERALLY DRY. HOWEVER THE SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO KMOT TUESDAY EVENING WITH LOW VFR CIGS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-
031>034-040>044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ037-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025-035-036.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 281134
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ARE ALREADY GUSTING OVER 30
MPH. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE LOW WORKS SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE EAST. GOING FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING IS A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND A WIND ADVISORY
FOR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT OVERTAKING WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME...WITH UPSTREAM WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
20KT TO 25KT. 997MB SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MANITOBA TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG TEMPERATURE/PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO VERY STRONG WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER PER NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS OF 50KT AND 60KT
COMMON AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40
MPH EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY
BE REALIZED IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...WHERE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL HELP TRANSFER HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...A HIGH WIND WARNING COVERS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WINDS HERE WILL FALL MORE IN LINE WITH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUS SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE FAR NORTH NEAR
CROSBY...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL CAPE AT BEST..THUS WILL KEEP
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW PER REGIONAL RADAR
WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS BEING MAINTAINED IN THE
NORTH THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LOW WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER ON WEDNESDAY...THROUGH A STRONG ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO BRING A BREEZY DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT...THOUGH STILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MODELS START TO DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF
AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KJMS. KJMS WILL EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL  WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 06Z BUT
STILL RANGE FROM 15KT TO 30KT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.

RAINSHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST UNTIL 03Z WEDNESDAY AT KISN.
KDIK/KMOT/KBIS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY
16Z TUESDAY...BUT REAMIN GENERALLY DRY. HOWEVER THE SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO KMOT TUESDAY EVENING WITH LOW VFR CIGS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-
031>034-040>044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ037-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025-035-036.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 281134
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ARE ALREADY GUSTING OVER 30
MPH. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE LOW WORKS SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE EAST. GOING FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING IS A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND A WIND ADVISORY
FOR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT OVERTAKING WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME...WITH UPSTREAM WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
20KT TO 25KT. 997MB SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MANITOBA TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG TEMPERATURE/PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO VERY STRONG WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER PER NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS OF 50KT AND 60KT
COMMON AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40
MPH EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY
BE REALIZED IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...WHERE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL HELP TRANSFER HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...A HIGH WIND WARNING COVERS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WINDS HERE WILL FALL MORE IN LINE WITH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUS SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE FAR NORTH NEAR
CROSBY...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL CAPE AT BEST..THUS WILL KEEP
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW PER REGIONAL RADAR
WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS BEING MAINTAINED IN THE
NORTH THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LOW WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER ON WEDNESDAY...THROUGH A STRONG ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO BRING A BREEZY DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT...THOUGH STILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MODELS START TO DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF
AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KJMS. KJMS WILL EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL  WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 06Z BUT
STILL RANGE FROM 15KT TO 30KT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.

RAINSHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST UNTIL 03Z WEDNESDAY AT KISN.
KDIK/KMOT/KBIS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY
16Z TUESDAY...BUT REAMIN GENERALLY DRY. HOWEVER THE SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO KMOT TUESDAY EVENING WITH LOW VFR CIGS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-
031>034-040>044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ037-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025-035-036.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 280904
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
404 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING IS A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND A WIND ADVISORY
FOR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT OVERTAKING WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME...WITH UPSTREAM WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
20KT TO 25KT. 997MB SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MANITOBA TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG TEMPERATURE/PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO VERY STRONG WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER PER NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS OF 50KT AND 60KT
COMMON AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40
MPH EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY
BE REALIZED IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...WHERE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL HELP TRANSFER HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...A HIGH WIND WARNING COVERS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WINDS HERE WILL FALL MORE IN LINE WITH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUS SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE FAR NORTH NEAR
CROSBY...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL CAPE AT BEST..THUS WILL KEEP
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW PER REGIONAL RADAR
WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS BEING MAINTAINED IN THE
NORTH THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LOW WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER ON WEDNESDAY...THROUGH A STRONG ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO BRING A BREEZY DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT...THOUGH STILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MODELS START TO DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF
AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
60 MPH FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KJMS. KJMS WILL EXPERIENCE WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAINSHOWERS ARE FORECAST AT
KISN WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH 02Z WEDNESDAY. A VCSH WILL BE CARRIED
AT KMOT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE REMAINING
AERODROMES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-
031>034-040>044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ037-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025-035-036.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 280904
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
404 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING IS A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND A WIND ADVISORY
FOR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT OVERTAKING WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME...WITH UPSTREAM WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
20KT TO 25KT. 997MB SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MANITOBA TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG TEMPERATURE/PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO VERY STRONG WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER PER NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS OF 50KT AND 60KT
COMMON AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40
MPH EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY
BE REALIZED IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...WHERE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL HELP TRANSFER HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...A HIGH WIND WARNING COVERS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WINDS HERE WILL FALL MORE IN LINE WITH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUS SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE FAR NORTH NEAR
CROSBY...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL CAPE AT BEST..THUS WILL KEEP
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW PER REGIONAL RADAR
WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS BEING MAINTAINED IN THE
NORTH THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LOW WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER ON WEDNESDAY...THROUGH A STRONG ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO BRING A BREEZY DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT...THOUGH STILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MODELS START TO DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF
AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
60 MPH FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KJMS. KJMS WILL EXPERIENCE WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAINSHOWERS ARE FORECAST AT
KISN WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH 02Z WEDNESDAY. A VCSH WILL BE CARRIED
AT KMOT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE REMAINING
AERODROMES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-
031>034-040>044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ037-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025-035-036.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 280859
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
359 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

150+M HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN MAN AND ONTARIO FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG MT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST SASK FORECAST TO DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 18Z THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 48
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE AREA
AND OVER 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN SD. EAST-WEST CROSS SECTION INDICATES
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOIST AIR SHIFTS EAST TODAY AS DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTH...OVER SD OR ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CURRENT LINE.  MAY KEEP THE SAME TREND FOR
TODAY. LINE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ADIABATIC LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESSENTIALLY THROUGH WED EVENING EXCEPTING 12Z WED. WINDS TO 60 KNOTS
IN THIS LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MAY NEED A HIGH WIND WARNING NORTHWEST
ZONES...WILL LET NEXT SHIFT DETERMINE IF NEEDED. WINDY YET WED
MORNING AND DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TUE
NIGHT AND WED.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
THU AFTER AND EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
THE BEST WAVE THIS WEEKEND. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY
CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON IF WAVES COME THROUGH AT MAX HEATING...SO
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHAT DAY COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF POTENTIAL T THROUGH TAF SITES
THEN INCREASING WINDS LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT FEEL
FAR HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL WITH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUING AT OTHER
SITES. LATER TOMORROW DVL BASIN WILL BE SEEING VERY STRONG WINDS
DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS HIGHER THAN 45KTS PSBL.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052-054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 280859
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
359 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

150+M HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN MAN AND ONTARIO FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG MT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST SASK FORECAST TO DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 18Z THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 48
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE AREA
AND OVER 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN SD. EAST-WEST CROSS SECTION INDICATES
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOIST AIR SHIFTS EAST TODAY AS DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTH...OVER SD OR ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CURRENT LINE.  MAY KEEP THE SAME TREND FOR
TODAY. LINE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ADIABATIC LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESSENTIALLY THROUGH WED EVENING EXCEPTING 12Z WED. WINDS TO 60 KNOTS
IN THIS LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MAY NEED A HIGH WIND WARNING NORTHWEST
ZONES...WILL LET NEXT SHIFT DETERMINE IF NEEDED. WINDY YET WED
MORNING AND DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TUE
NIGHT AND WED.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
THU AFTER AND EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
THE BEST WAVE THIS WEEKEND. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY
CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON IF WAVES COME THROUGH AT MAX HEATING...SO
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHAT DAY COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF POTENTIAL T THROUGH TAF SITES
THEN INCREASING WINDS LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT FEEL
FAR HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL WITH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUING AT OTHER
SITES. LATER TOMORROW DVL BASIN WILL BE SEEING VERY STRONG WINDS
DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS HIGHER THAN 45KTS PSBL.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052-054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 280859
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
359 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

150+M HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN MAN AND ONTARIO FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG MT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST SASK FORECAST TO DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 18Z THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 48
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE AREA
AND OVER 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN SD. EAST-WEST CROSS SECTION INDICATES
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOIST AIR SHIFTS EAST TODAY AS DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTH...OVER SD OR ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CURRENT LINE.  MAY KEEP THE SAME TREND FOR
TODAY. LINE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ADIABATIC LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESSENTIALLY THROUGH WED EVENING EXCEPTING 12Z WED. WINDS TO 60 KNOTS
IN THIS LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MAY NEED A HIGH WIND WARNING NORTHWEST
ZONES...WILL LET NEXT SHIFT DETERMINE IF NEEDED. WINDY YET WED
MORNING AND DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TUE
NIGHT AND WED.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
THU AFTER AND EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
THE BEST WAVE THIS WEEKEND. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY
CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON IF WAVES COME THROUGH AT MAX HEATING...SO
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHAT DAY COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF POTENTIAL T THROUGH TAF SITES
THEN INCREASING WINDS LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT FEEL
FAR HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL WITH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUING AT OTHER
SITES. LATER TOMORROW DVL BASIN WILL BE SEEING VERY STRONG WINDS
DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS HIGHER THAN 45KTS PSBL.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052-054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 280859
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
359 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

150+M HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN MAN AND ONTARIO FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG MT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST SASK FORECAST TO DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 18Z THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 48
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE AREA
AND OVER 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN SD. EAST-WEST CROSS SECTION INDICATES
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOIST AIR SHIFTS EAST TODAY AS DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTH...OVER SD OR ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CURRENT LINE.  MAY KEEP THE SAME TREND FOR
TODAY. LINE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ADIABATIC LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESSENTIALLY THROUGH WED EVENING EXCEPTING 12Z WED. WINDS TO 60 KNOTS
IN THIS LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MAY NEED A HIGH WIND WARNING NORTHWEST
ZONES...WILL LET NEXT SHIFT DETERMINE IF NEEDED. WINDY YET WED
MORNING AND DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TUE
NIGHT AND WED.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
THU AFTER AND EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
THE BEST WAVE THIS WEEKEND. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY
CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON IF WAVES COME THROUGH AT MAX HEATING...SO
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHAT DAY COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF POTENTIAL T THROUGH TAF SITES
THEN INCREASING WINDS LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT FEEL
FAR HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL WITH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUING AT OTHER
SITES. LATER TOMORROW DVL BASIN WILL BE SEEING VERY STRONG WINDS
DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS HIGHER THAN 45KTS PSBL.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052-054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 280859
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
359 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

150+M HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN MAN AND ONTARIO FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG MT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST SASK FORECAST TO DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 18Z THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 48
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE AREA
AND OVER 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN SD. EAST-WEST CROSS SECTION INDICATES
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOIST AIR SHIFTS EAST TODAY AS DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTH...OVER SD OR ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CURRENT LINE.  MAY KEEP THE SAME TREND FOR
TODAY. LINE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ADIABATIC LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESSENTIALLY THROUGH WED EVENING EXCEPTING 12Z WED. WINDS TO 60 KNOTS
IN THIS LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MAY NEED A HIGH WIND WARNING NORTHWEST
ZONES...WILL LET NEXT SHIFT DETERMINE IF NEEDED. WINDY YET WED
MORNING AND DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TUE
NIGHT AND WED.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
THU AFTER AND EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
THE BEST WAVE THIS WEEKEND. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY
CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON IF WAVES COME THROUGH AT MAX HEATING...SO
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHAT DAY COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF POTENTIAL T THROUGH TAF SITES
THEN INCREASING WINDS LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT FEEL
FAR HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL WITH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUING AT OTHER
SITES. LATER TOMORROW DVL BASIN WILL BE SEEING VERY STRONG WINDS
DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS HIGHER THAN 45KTS PSBL.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052-054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KBIS 280557
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1257 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

HAVE TRIMMED OFF MOST OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONVECTIVE
WATCHES WHERE WIND/HAIL THREAT HAS DIMINISHED...KEEPING ONLY
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LINE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOR THIS UPDATE...HAVE REMOVED SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457. COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING EAST. MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. FOCUS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR LATER TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COORDINATED WITH SPC AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 458 HAS BEEN
ISSUED UNTIL 5AM CDT TUESDAY. THIS COVERS ALL COUNTIES IN THE
BISMARCK COUNTY WARNING AREA THAT WERE NOT INCLUDED IN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457. UPDATES FORTHCOMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD BURLEIGH AND EMMONS COUNTIES TO THE EXISTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457...WHICH CONTINUES UNTIL 3AM CDT
TUESDAY. UPDATED PRODUCTS SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED POPS WITH HRRR ENSEMBLE. TRIED TO CAPTURE THE HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED NEXT 6 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE ALLOWING FULL HEATING ACROSS MUST OF WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE 4000+ CAPE WITH
20-30 KTS BULK SHEAR ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WAITING
FOR CAP TO ERODE.

HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE THUNDERSTORM AREAS OF ONE TO NEARLY 2
INCHES MAINLY NORTH. ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.

ON TUESDAY...EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
MODELS DELAYED THE HIGHER WINDS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PRODUCE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
STRONG CAA WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ALBEIT MUCH
LESS THAN TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS STILL AFFECTING KMOT AND KJMS AT
THE BEGINNING OF THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH KISN/KDIK/KBIS RECEIVING
LIMITED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN ISSUE FOR TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE THE VERY STRONG WEST WINDS...WITH THE
LATEST DATA SHOWING GUSTS TO AROUND 50KT AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KJMS...WHICH WILL SEE MAX GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 280557
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1257 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

HAVE TRIMMED OFF MOST OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONVECTIVE
WATCHES WHERE WIND/HAIL THREAT HAS DIMINISHED...KEEPING ONLY
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LINE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOR THIS UPDATE...HAVE REMOVED SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457. COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING EAST. MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. FOCUS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR LATER TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COORDINATED WITH SPC AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 458 HAS BEEN
ISSUED UNTIL 5AM CDT TUESDAY. THIS COVERS ALL COUNTIES IN THE
BISMARCK COUNTY WARNING AREA THAT WERE NOT INCLUDED IN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457. UPDATES FORTHCOMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD BURLEIGH AND EMMONS COUNTIES TO THE EXISTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457...WHICH CONTINUES UNTIL 3AM CDT
TUESDAY. UPDATED PRODUCTS SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED POPS WITH HRRR ENSEMBLE. TRIED TO CAPTURE THE HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED NEXT 6 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE ALLOWING FULL HEATING ACROSS MUST OF WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE 4000+ CAPE WITH
20-30 KTS BULK SHEAR ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WAITING
FOR CAP TO ERODE.

HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE THUNDERSTORM AREAS OF ONE TO NEARLY 2
INCHES MAINLY NORTH. ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.

ON TUESDAY...EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
MODELS DELAYED THE HIGHER WINDS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PRODUCE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
STRONG CAA WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ALBEIT MUCH
LESS THAN TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS STILL AFFECTING KMOT AND KJMS AT
THE BEGINNING OF THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH KISN/KDIK/KBIS RECEIVING
LIMITED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN ISSUE FOR TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE THE VERY STRONG WEST WINDS...WITH THE
LATEST DATA SHOWING GUSTS TO AROUND 50KT AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KJMS...WHICH WILL SEE MAX GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 280557
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1257 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

HAVE TRIMMED OFF MOST OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONVECTIVE
WATCHES WHERE WIND/HAIL THREAT HAS DIMINISHED...KEEPING ONLY
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LINE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOR THIS UPDATE...HAVE REMOVED SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457. COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING EAST. MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. FOCUS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR LATER TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COORDINATED WITH SPC AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 458 HAS BEEN
ISSUED UNTIL 5AM CDT TUESDAY. THIS COVERS ALL COUNTIES IN THE
BISMARCK COUNTY WARNING AREA THAT WERE NOT INCLUDED IN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457. UPDATES FORTHCOMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD BURLEIGH AND EMMONS COUNTIES TO THE EXISTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457...WHICH CONTINUES UNTIL 3AM CDT
TUESDAY. UPDATED PRODUCTS SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED POPS WITH HRRR ENSEMBLE. TRIED TO CAPTURE THE HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED NEXT 6 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE ALLOWING FULL HEATING ACROSS MUST OF WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE 4000+ CAPE WITH
20-30 KTS BULK SHEAR ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WAITING
FOR CAP TO ERODE.

HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE THUNDERSTORM AREAS OF ONE TO NEARLY 2
INCHES MAINLY NORTH. ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.

ON TUESDAY...EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
MODELS DELAYED THE HIGHER WINDS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PRODUCE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
STRONG CAA WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ALBEIT MUCH
LESS THAN TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS STILL AFFECTING KMOT AND KJMS AT
THE BEGINNING OF THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH KISN/KDIK/KBIS RECEIVING
LIMITED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN ISSUE FOR TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE THE VERY STRONG WEST WINDS...WITH THE
LATEST DATA SHOWING GUSTS TO AROUND 50KT AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KJMS...WHICH WILL SEE MAX GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 280557
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1257 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

HAVE TRIMMED OFF MOST OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONVECTIVE
WATCHES WHERE WIND/HAIL THREAT HAS DIMINISHED...KEEPING ONLY
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LINE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOR THIS UPDATE...HAVE REMOVED SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457. COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING EAST. MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. FOCUS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR LATER TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COORDINATED WITH SPC AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 458 HAS BEEN
ISSUED UNTIL 5AM CDT TUESDAY. THIS COVERS ALL COUNTIES IN THE
BISMARCK COUNTY WARNING AREA THAT WERE NOT INCLUDED IN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457. UPDATES FORTHCOMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD BURLEIGH AND EMMONS COUNTIES TO THE EXISTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457...WHICH CONTINUES UNTIL 3AM CDT
TUESDAY. UPDATED PRODUCTS SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED POPS WITH HRRR ENSEMBLE. TRIED TO CAPTURE THE HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED NEXT 6 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE ALLOWING FULL HEATING ACROSS MUST OF WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE 4000+ CAPE WITH
20-30 KTS BULK SHEAR ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WAITING
FOR CAP TO ERODE.

HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE THUNDERSTORM AREAS OF ONE TO NEARLY 2
INCHES MAINLY NORTH. ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.

ON TUESDAY...EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
MODELS DELAYED THE HIGHER WINDS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PRODUCE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
STRONG CAA WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ALBEIT MUCH
LESS THAN TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS STILL AFFECTING KMOT AND KJMS AT
THE BEGINNING OF THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH KISN/KDIK/KBIS RECEIVING
LIMITED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN ISSUE FOR TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE THE VERY STRONG WEST WINDS...WITH THE
LATEST DATA SHOWING GUSTS TO AROUND 50KT AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KJMS...WHICH WILL SEE MAX GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 280537
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOR THIS UPDATE...HAVE REMOVED SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457. COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING EAST. MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. FOCUS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR LATER TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COORDINATED WITH SPC AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 458 HAS BEEN
ISSUED UNTIL 5AM CDT TUESDAY. THIS COVERS ALL COUNTIES IN THE
BISMARCK COUNTY WARNING AREA THAT WERE NOT INCLUDED IN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457. UPDATES FORTHCOMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD BURLEIGH AND EMMONS COUNTIES TO THE EXISTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457...WHICH CONTINUES UNTIL 3AM CDT
TUESDAY. UPDATED PRODUCTS SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED POPS WITH HRRR ENSEMBLE. TRIED TO CAPTURE THE HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED NEXT 6 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE ALLOWING FULL HEATING ACROSS MUST OF WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE 4000+ CAPE WITH
20-30 KTS BULK SHEAR ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WAITING
FOR CAP TO ERODE.

HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE THUNDERSTORM AREAS OF ONE TO NEARLY 2
INCHES MAINLY NORTH. ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.

ON TUESDAY...EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
MODELS DELAYED THE HIGHER WINDS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PRODUCE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
STRONG CAA WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ALBEIT MUCH
LESS THAN TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS STILL AFFECTING KMOT AND KJMS AT
THE BEGINNING OF THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH KISN/KDIK/KBIS RECEIVING
LIMITED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN ISSUE FOR TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE THE VERY STRONG WEST WINDS...WITH THE
LATEST DATA SHOWING GUSTS TO AROUND 50KT AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KJMS...WHICH WILL SEE MAX GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 280537
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOR THIS UPDATE...HAVE REMOVED SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457. COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING EAST. MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. FOCUS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR LATER TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COORDINATED WITH SPC AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 458 HAS BEEN
ISSUED UNTIL 5AM CDT TUESDAY. THIS COVERS ALL COUNTIES IN THE
BISMARCK COUNTY WARNING AREA THAT WERE NOT INCLUDED IN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457. UPDATES FORTHCOMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD BURLEIGH AND EMMONS COUNTIES TO THE EXISTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457...WHICH CONTINUES UNTIL 3AM CDT
TUESDAY. UPDATED PRODUCTS SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED POPS WITH HRRR ENSEMBLE. TRIED TO CAPTURE THE HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED NEXT 6 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE ALLOWING FULL HEATING ACROSS MUST OF WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE 4000+ CAPE WITH
20-30 KTS BULK SHEAR ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WAITING
FOR CAP TO ERODE.

HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE THUNDERSTORM AREAS OF ONE TO NEARLY 2
INCHES MAINLY NORTH. ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.

ON TUESDAY...EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
MODELS DELAYED THE HIGHER WINDS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PRODUCE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
STRONG CAA WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ALBEIT MUCH
LESS THAN TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS STILL AFFECTING KMOT AND KJMS AT
THE BEGINNING OF THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH KISN/KDIK/KBIS RECEIVING
LIMITED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN ISSUE FOR TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE THE VERY STRONG WEST WINDS...WITH THE
LATEST DATA SHOWING GUSTS TO AROUND 50KT AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KJMS...WHICH WILL SEE MAX GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 280444
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ADJUSTED POPS AS CONVECTION STILL WELL WEST OF THE FA. OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES AS WILL BE NOW BE MONITORING FOR SEVERE STORMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS WESTERN ND CONTINUES TO BE SLOW WITH
MAIN ACTION ACROSS W SD...E MT AND ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN MB/SASK
BORDER AREA. A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO FAR S CENTRAL ND
BETWEEN DIK AND BIS AND JUST MOVING ACROSS THE MT/ND BORDER AREA.
STRONGEST SHEAR WITH WAVE OVER W SD AND E MT. BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING STILL ALONG ND/MT BORDER AREA VCNTY SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CUT BACK ON POPS BUT
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR W CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT BUT
UNCERTAIN WITH THAT. HIGH RESOLUTION QUICK UPDATE MODELS DO NOT
BRING ANYTHING INTO THE WEST UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAY BREAK. SEVERE
THREAT ALSO SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. INSTABILITY REMAINS HOWEVER
CONVERGENCE WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
MAINTAINED CURRENT POPS LATER TONIGHT BUT AGAIN SEVERE THREAT NOT
ALL THAT CLEAR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONLY CHANGES WERE TO ADD SOME ISOLD TSRA CHANCES TO THE FAR SW FA
ALTHOUGH CURRENT CONVECTION WEAKENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID RED RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTN.
AREA OF MID LEVEL ALTOCU WITH THIS INTO PARTS OF NW MN AS WELL
GFK-DTL REGION. STILL COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN THIS AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE MENTION THRU 23Z. OTHERWISE WARM AIR ALOFT SEEN ON VSBL
SAT PIX WITH LACK OF CU FROM BISMARCK AREA TO NEAR STANLEY ND TO
ESTEVAN SK. HRRR AND OTHER VARIOUS WRF MODELS QUITE SIMILAR IN
SHOWING ACTIVITY INCREASING 23Z-01Z IN ERN MT OR FAR WRN ND INTO
SE SASK AND THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST AND NORTHEAST..WITH
THREAT NOT INTO ERN ND TIL LIKELY AFTER 06Z. MOST SHORT RANGE
MODELS ALSO SO A SECOND AREA OF STORMS IN ECNTRL SD INTO CENTRAL
MN. ALL IN ALL BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY GOOD BUT MAIN MID LEVEL JET
AROUND THE BASE OF THE 500 MB LOW IS STILL WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT SO AT THIS POINT THE IDEA OF SEVERE OUTBREAK
FOR ERN ND/NW MN POINTS TOWARD ISOLATED AT BEST AS SOME CLUSTERS
OR A SQUALL LINE MOVES IN. COORD WITH VARIOUS OFFICES AND HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE POPS A BIT MORE. SUNNIER AND LESS WINDY FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STILL EXPECTING A RIDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PUT THE FA IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
DURATION OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS THE FA IN A GENERALLY QUIET
PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOW END PCPN CHANCES AT TIMES.
EXACTLY WHEN A TOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT WITH NO DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONGOING CONVECTION EXITING THE RRV 12Z TUES AND EXITING NW MN BY
MIDDAY. DRY SLOT COMING IN AND PRETTY STRONG 925 MB WINDS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CNTRL ND TUES AFTN AND INTO
PARTS OF NE/ECNTRL ND LATE TUES AFTN/EARLY EVE. AT THIS
POINT...MAY FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME
DVL BASIN WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS OTHER AREAS IN
ERN ND. NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED THIS FCST AS IT WILL PAST 18Z
TUES AND GIVES MID SHIFT TIME TO ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

WRAPAROUND CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NE ND/NW MN TUES
NIGHT..EXITING LAKE OF THE WOODS WED MORNING. BREEZY
WEDNESDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUD/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF POTENTIAL T THROUGH TAF SITES
THEN INCREASING WINDS LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT FEEL
FAR HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL WITH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUING AT OTHER
SITES. LATER TOMORROW DVL BASIN WILL BE SEEING VERY STRONG WINDS
DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS HIGHER THAN 45KTS PSBL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 280444
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ADJUSTED POPS AS CONVECTION STILL WELL WEST OF THE FA. OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES AS WILL BE NOW BE MONITORING FOR SEVERE STORMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS WESTERN ND CONTINUES TO BE SLOW WITH
MAIN ACTION ACROSS W SD...E MT AND ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN MB/SASK
BORDER AREA. A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO FAR S CENTRAL ND
BETWEEN DIK AND BIS AND JUST MOVING ACROSS THE MT/ND BORDER AREA.
STRONGEST SHEAR WITH WAVE OVER W SD AND E MT. BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING STILL ALONG ND/MT BORDER AREA VCNTY SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CUT BACK ON POPS BUT
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR W CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT BUT
UNCERTAIN WITH THAT. HIGH RESOLUTION QUICK UPDATE MODELS DO NOT
BRING ANYTHING INTO THE WEST UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAY BREAK. SEVERE
THREAT ALSO SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. INSTABILITY REMAINS HOWEVER
CONVERGENCE WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
MAINTAINED CURRENT POPS LATER TONIGHT BUT AGAIN SEVERE THREAT NOT
ALL THAT CLEAR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONLY CHANGES WERE TO ADD SOME ISOLD TSRA CHANCES TO THE FAR SW FA
ALTHOUGH CURRENT CONVECTION WEAKENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID RED RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTN.
AREA OF MID LEVEL ALTOCU WITH THIS INTO PARTS OF NW MN AS WELL
GFK-DTL REGION. STILL COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN THIS AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE MENTION THRU 23Z. OTHERWISE WARM AIR ALOFT SEEN ON VSBL
SAT PIX WITH LACK OF CU FROM BISMARCK AREA TO NEAR STANLEY ND TO
ESTEVAN SK. HRRR AND OTHER VARIOUS WRF MODELS QUITE SIMILAR IN
SHOWING ACTIVITY INCREASING 23Z-01Z IN ERN MT OR FAR WRN ND INTO
SE SASK AND THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST AND NORTHEAST..WITH
THREAT NOT INTO ERN ND TIL LIKELY AFTER 06Z. MOST SHORT RANGE
MODELS ALSO SO A SECOND AREA OF STORMS IN ECNTRL SD INTO CENTRAL
MN. ALL IN ALL BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY GOOD BUT MAIN MID LEVEL JET
AROUND THE BASE OF THE 500 MB LOW IS STILL WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT SO AT THIS POINT THE IDEA OF SEVERE OUTBREAK
FOR ERN ND/NW MN POINTS TOWARD ISOLATED AT BEST AS SOME CLUSTERS
OR A SQUALL LINE MOVES IN. COORD WITH VARIOUS OFFICES AND HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE POPS A BIT MORE. SUNNIER AND LESS WINDY FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STILL EXPECTING A RIDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PUT THE FA IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
DURATION OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS THE FA IN A GENERALLY QUIET
PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOW END PCPN CHANCES AT TIMES.
EXACTLY WHEN A TOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT WITH NO DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONGOING CONVECTION EXITING THE RRV 12Z TUES AND EXITING NW MN BY
MIDDAY. DRY SLOT COMING IN AND PRETTY STRONG 925 MB WINDS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CNTRL ND TUES AFTN AND INTO
PARTS OF NE/ECNTRL ND LATE TUES AFTN/EARLY EVE. AT THIS
POINT...MAY FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME
DVL BASIN WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS OTHER AREAS IN
ERN ND. NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED THIS FCST AS IT WILL PAST 18Z
TUES AND GIVES MID SHIFT TIME TO ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

WRAPAROUND CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NE ND/NW MN TUES
NIGHT..EXITING LAKE OF THE WOODS WED MORNING. BREEZY
WEDNESDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUD/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF POTENTIAL T THROUGH TAF SITES
THEN INCREASING WINDS LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT FEEL
FAR HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL WITH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUING AT OTHER
SITES. LATER TOMORROW DVL BASIN WILL BE SEEING VERY STRONG WINDS
DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS HIGHER THAN 45KTS PSBL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 280444
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ADJUSTED POPS AS CONVECTION STILL WELL WEST OF THE FA. OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES AS WILL BE NOW BE MONITORING FOR SEVERE STORMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS WESTERN ND CONTINUES TO BE SLOW WITH
MAIN ACTION ACROSS W SD...E MT AND ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN MB/SASK
BORDER AREA. A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO FAR S CENTRAL ND
BETWEEN DIK AND BIS AND JUST MOVING ACROSS THE MT/ND BORDER AREA.
STRONGEST SHEAR WITH WAVE OVER W SD AND E MT. BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING STILL ALONG ND/MT BORDER AREA VCNTY SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CUT BACK ON POPS BUT
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR W CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT BUT
UNCERTAIN WITH THAT. HIGH RESOLUTION QUICK UPDATE MODELS DO NOT
BRING ANYTHING INTO THE WEST UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAY BREAK. SEVERE
THREAT ALSO SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. INSTABILITY REMAINS HOWEVER
CONVERGENCE WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
MAINTAINED CURRENT POPS LATER TONIGHT BUT AGAIN SEVERE THREAT NOT
ALL THAT CLEAR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONLY CHANGES WERE TO ADD SOME ISOLD TSRA CHANCES TO THE FAR SW FA
ALTHOUGH CURRENT CONVECTION WEAKENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID RED RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTN.
AREA OF MID LEVEL ALTOCU WITH THIS INTO PARTS OF NW MN AS WELL
GFK-DTL REGION. STILL COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN THIS AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE MENTION THRU 23Z. OTHERWISE WARM AIR ALOFT SEEN ON VSBL
SAT PIX WITH LACK OF CU FROM BISMARCK AREA TO NEAR STANLEY ND TO
ESTEVAN SK. HRRR AND OTHER VARIOUS WRF MODELS QUITE SIMILAR IN
SHOWING ACTIVITY INCREASING 23Z-01Z IN ERN MT OR FAR WRN ND INTO
SE SASK AND THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST AND NORTHEAST..WITH
THREAT NOT INTO ERN ND TIL LIKELY AFTER 06Z. MOST SHORT RANGE
MODELS ALSO SO A SECOND AREA OF STORMS IN ECNTRL SD INTO CENTRAL
MN. ALL IN ALL BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY GOOD BUT MAIN MID LEVEL JET
AROUND THE BASE OF THE 500 MB LOW IS STILL WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT SO AT THIS POINT THE IDEA OF SEVERE OUTBREAK
FOR ERN ND/NW MN POINTS TOWARD ISOLATED AT BEST AS SOME CLUSTERS
OR A SQUALL LINE MOVES IN. COORD WITH VARIOUS OFFICES AND HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE POPS A BIT MORE. SUNNIER AND LESS WINDY FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STILL EXPECTING A RIDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PUT THE FA IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
DURATION OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS THE FA IN A GENERALLY QUIET
PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOW END PCPN CHANCES AT TIMES.
EXACTLY WHEN A TOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT WITH NO DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONGOING CONVECTION EXITING THE RRV 12Z TUES AND EXITING NW MN BY
MIDDAY. DRY SLOT COMING IN AND PRETTY STRONG 925 MB WINDS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CNTRL ND TUES AFTN AND INTO
PARTS OF NE/ECNTRL ND LATE TUES AFTN/EARLY EVE. AT THIS
POINT...MAY FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME
DVL BASIN WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS OTHER AREAS IN
ERN ND. NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED THIS FCST AS IT WILL PAST 18Z
TUES AND GIVES MID SHIFT TIME TO ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

WRAPAROUND CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NE ND/NW MN TUES
NIGHT..EXITING LAKE OF THE WOODS WED MORNING. BREEZY
WEDNESDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUD/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF POTENTIAL T THROUGH TAF SITES
THEN INCREASING WINDS LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT FEEL
FAR HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL WITH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUING AT OTHER
SITES. LATER TOMORROW DVL BASIN WILL BE SEEING VERY STRONG WINDS
DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS HIGHER THAN 45KTS PSBL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 280444
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ADJUSTED POPS AS CONVECTION STILL WELL WEST OF THE FA. OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES AS WILL BE NOW BE MONITORING FOR SEVERE STORMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS WESTERN ND CONTINUES TO BE SLOW WITH
MAIN ACTION ACROSS W SD...E MT AND ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN MB/SASK
BORDER AREA. A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO FAR S CENTRAL ND
BETWEEN DIK AND BIS AND JUST MOVING ACROSS THE MT/ND BORDER AREA.
STRONGEST SHEAR WITH WAVE OVER W SD AND E MT. BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING STILL ALONG ND/MT BORDER AREA VCNTY SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CUT BACK ON POPS BUT
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR W CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT BUT
UNCERTAIN WITH THAT. HIGH RESOLUTION QUICK UPDATE MODELS DO NOT
BRING ANYTHING INTO THE WEST UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAY BREAK. SEVERE
THREAT ALSO SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. INSTABILITY REMAINS HOWEVER
CONVERGENCE WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
MAINTAINED CURRENT POPS LATER TONIGHT BUT AGAIN SEVERE THREAT NOT
ALL THAT CLEAR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONLY CHANGES WERE TO ADD SOME ISOLD TSRA CHANCES TO THE FAR SW FA
ALTHOUGH CURRENT CONVECTION WEAKENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID RED RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTN.
AREA OF MID LEVEL ALTOCU WITH THIS INTO PARTS OF NW MN AS WELL
GFK-DTL REGION. STILL COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN THIS AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE MENTION THRU 23Z. OTHERWISE WARM AIR ALOFT SEEN ON VSBL
SAT PIX WITH LACK OF CU FROM BISMARCK AREA TO NEAR STANLEY ND TO
ESTEVAN SK. HRRR AND OTHER VARIOUS WRF MODELS QUITE SIMILAR IN
SHOWING ACTIVITY INCREASING 23Z-01Z IN ERN MT OR FAR WRN ND INTO
SE SASK AND THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST AND NORTHEAST..WITH
THREAT NOT INTO ERN ND TIL LIKELY AFTER 06Z. MOST SHORT RANGE
MODELS ALSO SO A SECOND AREA OF STORMS IN ECNTRL SD INTO CENTRAL
MN. ALL IN ALL BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY GOOD BUT MAIN MID LEVEL JET
AROUND THE BASE OF THE 500 MB LOW IS STILL WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT SO AT THIS POINT THE IDEA OF SEVERE OUTBREAK
FOR ERN ND/NW MN POINTS TOWARD ISOLATED AT BEST AS SOME CLUSTERS
OR A SQUALL LINE MOVES IN. COORD WITH VARIOUS OFFICES AND HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE POPS A BIT MORE. SUNNIER AND LESS WINDY FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STILL EXPECTING A RIDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PUT THE FA IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
DURATION OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS THE FA IN A GENERALLY QUIET
PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOW END PCPN CHANCES AT TIMES.
EXACTLY WHEN A TOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT WITH NO DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONGOING CONVECTION EXITING THE RRV 12Z TUES AND EXITING NW MN BY
MIDDAY. DRY SLOT COMING IN AND PRETTY STRONG 925 MB WINDS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CNTRL ND TUES AFTN AND INTO
PARTS OF NE/ECNTRL ND LATE TUES AFTN/EARLY EVE. AT THIS
POINT...MAY FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME
DVL BASIN WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS OTHER AREAS IN
ERN ND. NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED THIS FCST AS IT WILL PAST 18Z
TUES AND GIVES MID SHIFT TIME TO ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

WRAPAROUND CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NE ND/NW MN TUES
NIGHT..EXITING LAKE OF THE WOODS WED MORNING. BREEZY
WEDNESDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUD/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF POTENTIAL T THROUGH TAF SITES
THEN INCREASING WINDS LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT FEEL
FAR HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL WITH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUING AT OTHER
SITES. LATER TOMORROW DVL BASIN WILL BE SEEING VERY STRONG WINDS
DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS HIGHER THAN 45KTS PSBL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 280444
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ADJUSTED POPS AS CONVECTION STILL WELL WEST OF THE FA. OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES AS WILL BE NOW BE MONITORING FOR SEVERE STORMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS WESTERN ND CONTINUES TO BE SLOW WITH
MAIN ACTION ACROSS W SD...E MT AND ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN MB/SASK
BORDER AREA. A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO FAR S CENTRAL ND
BETWEEN DIK AND BIS AND JUST MOVING ACROSS THE MT/ND BORDER AREA.
STRONGEST SHEAR WITH WAVE OVER W SD AND E MT. BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING STILL ALONG ND/MT BORDER AREA VCNTY SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CUT BACK ON POPS BUT
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR W CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT BUT
UNCERTAIN WITH THAT. HIGH RESOLUTION QUICK UPDATE MODELS DO NOT
BRING ANYTHING INTO THE WEST UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAY BREAK. SEVERE
THREAT ALSO SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. INSTABILITY REMAINS HOWEVER
CONVERGENCE WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
MAINTAINED CURRENT POPS LATER TONIGHT BUT AGAIN SEVERE THREAT NOT
ALL THAT CLEAR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONLY CHANGES WERE TO ADD SOME ISOLD TSRA CHANCES TO THE FAR SW FA
ALTHOUGH CURRENT CONVECTION WEAKENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID RED RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTN.
AREA OF MID LEVEL ALTOCU WITH THIS INTO PARTS OF NW MN AS WELL
GFK-DTL REGION. STILL COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN THIS AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE MENTION THRU 23Z. OTHERWISE WARM AIR ALOFT SEEN ON VSBL
SAT PIX WITH LACK OF CU FROM BISMARCK AREA TO NEAR STANLEY ND TO
ESTEVAN SK. HRRR AND OTHER VARIOUS WRF MODELS QUITE SIMILAR IN
SHOWING ACTIVITY INCREASING 23Z-01Z IN ERN MT OR FAR WRN ND INTO
SE SASK AND THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST AND NORTHEAST..WITH
THREAT NOT INTO ERN ND TIL LIKELY AFTER 06Z. MOST SHORT RANGE
MODELS ALSO SO A SECOND AREA OF STORMS IN ECNTRL SD INTO CENTRAL
MN. ALL IN ALL BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY GOOD BUT MAIN MID LEVEL JET
AROUND THE BASE OF THE 500 MB LOW IS STILL WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT SO AT THIS POINT THE IDEA OF SEVERE OUTBREAK
FOR ERN ND/NW MN POINTS TOWARD ISOLATED AT BEST AS SOME CLUSTERS
OR A SQUALL LINE MOVES IN. COORD WITH VARIOUS OFFICES AND HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE POPS A BIT MORE. SUNNIER AND LESS WINDY FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STILL EXPECTING A RIDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PUT THE FA IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
DURATION OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS THE FA IN A GENERALLY QUIET
PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOW END PCPN CHANCES AT TIMES.
EXACTLY WHEN A TOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT WITH NO DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONGOING CONVECTION EXITING THE RRV 12Z TUES AND EXITING NW MN BY
MIDDAY. DRY SLOT COMING IN AND PRETTY STRONG 925 MB WINDS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CNTRL ND TUES AFTN AND INTO
PARTS OF NE/ECNTRL ND LATE TUES AFTN/EARLY EVE. AT THIS
POINT...MAY FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME
DVL BASIN WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS OTHER AREAS IN
ERN ND. NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED THIS FCST AS IT WILL PAST 18Z
TUES AND GIVES MID SHIFT TIME TO ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

WRAPAROUND CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NE ND/NW MN TUES
NIGHT..EXITING LAKE OF THE WOODS WED MORNING. BREEZY
WEDNESDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUD/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF POTENTIAL T THROUGH TAF SITES
THEN INCREASING WINDS LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT FEEL
FAR HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL WITH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUING AT OTHER
SITES. LATER TOMORROW DVL BASIN WILL BE SEEING VERY STRONG WINDS
DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS HIGHER THAN 45KTS PSBL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 280444
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ADJUSTED POPS AS CONVECTION STILL WELL WEST OF THE FA. OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES AS WILL BE NOW BE MONITORING FOR SEVERE STORMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS WESTERN ND CONTINUES TO BE SLOW WITH
MAIN ACTION ACROSS W SD...E MT AND ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN MB/SASK
BORDER AREA. A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO FAR S CENTRAL ND
BETWEEN DIK AND BIS AND JUST MOVING ACROSS THE MT/ND BORDER AREA.
STRONGEST SHEAR WITH WAVE OVER W SD AND E MT. BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING STILL ALONG ND/MT BORDER AREA VCNTY SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CUT BACK ON POPS BUT
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR W CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT BUT
UNCERTAIN WITH THAT. HIGH RESOLUTION QUICK UPDATE MODELS DO NOT
BRING ANYTHING INTO THE WEST UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAY BREAK. SEVERE
THREAT ALSO SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. INSTABILITY REMAINS HOWEVER
CONVERGENCE WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
MAINTAINED CURRENT POPS LATER TONIGHT BUT AGAIN SEVERE THREAT NOT
ALL THAT CLEAR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONLY CHANGES WERE TO ADD SOME ISOLD TSRA CHANCES TO THE FAR SW FA
ALTHOUGH CURRENT CONVECTION WEAKENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID RED RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTN.
AREA OF MID LEVEL ALTOCU WITH THIS INTO PARTS OF NW MN AS WELL
GFK-DTL REGION. STILL COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN THIS AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE MENTION THRU 23Z. OTHERWISE WARM AIR ALOFT SEEN ON VSBL
SAT PIX WITH LACK OF CU FROM BISMARCK AREA TO NEAR STANLEY ND TO
ESTEVAN SK. HRRR AND OTHER VARIOUS WRF MODELS QUITE SIMILAR IN
SHOWING ACTIVITY INCREASING 23Z-01Z IN ERN MT OR FAR WRN ND INTO
SE SASK AND THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST AND NORTHEAST..WITH
THREAT NOT INTO ERN ND TIL LIKELY AFTER 06Z. MOST SHORT RANGE
MODELS ALSO SO A SECOND AREA OF STORMS IN ECNTRL SD INTO CENTRAL
MN. ALL IN ALL BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY GOOD BUT MAIN MID LEVEL JET
AROUND THE BASE OF THE 500 MB LOW IS STILL WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT SO AT THIS POINT THE IDEA OF SEVERE OUTBREAK
FOR ERN ND/NW MN POINTS TOWARD ISOLATED AT BEST AS SOME CLUSTERS
OR A SQUALL LINE MOVES IN. COORD WITH VARIOUS OFFICES AND HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE POPS A BIT MORE. SUNNIER AND LESS WINDY FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STILL EXPECTING A RIDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PUT THE FA IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
DURATION OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS THE FA IN A GENERALLY QUIET
PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOW END PCPN CHANCES AT TIMES.
EXACTLY WHEN A TOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT WITH NO DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONGOING CONVECTION EXITING THE RRV 12Z TUES AND EXITING NW MN BY
MIDDAY. DRY SLOT COMING IN AND PRETTY STRONG 925 MB WINDS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CNTRL ND TUES AFTN AND INTO
PARTS OF NE/ECNTRL ND LATE TUES AFTN/EARLY EVE. AT THIS
POINT...MAY FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME
DVL BASIN WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS OTHER AREAS IN
ERN ND. NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED THIS FCST AS IT WILL PAST 18Z
TUES AND GIVES MID SHIFT TIME TO ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

WRAPAROUND CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NE ND/NW MN TUES
NIGHT..EXITING LAKE OF THE WOODS WED MORNING. BREEZY
WEDNESDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUD/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF POTENTIAL T THROUGH TAF SITES
THEN INCREASING WINDS LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT FEEL
FAR HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL WITH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUING AT OTHER
SITES. LATER TOMORROW DVL BASIN WILL BE SEEING VERY STRONG WINDS
DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS HIGHER THAN 45KTS PSBL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 280444
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ADJUSTED POPS AS CONVECTION STILL WELL WEST OF THE FA. OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES AS WILL BE NOW BE MONITORING FOR SEVERE STORMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS WESTERN ND CONTINUES TO BE SLOW WITH
MAIN ACTION ACROSS W SD...E MT AND ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN MB/SASK
BORDER AREA. A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO FAR S CENTRAL ND
BETWEEN DIK AND BIS AND JUST MOVING ACROSS THE MT/ND BORDER AREA.
STRONGEST SHEAR WITH WAVE OVER W SD AND E MT. BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING STILL ALONG ND/MT BORDER AREA VCNTY SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CUT BACK ON POPS BUT
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR W CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT BUT
UNCERTAIN WITH THAT. HIGH RESOLUTION QUICK UPDATE MODELS DO NOT
BRING ANYTHING INTO THE WEST UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAY BREAK. SEVERE
THREAT ALSO SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. INSTABILITY REMAINS HOWEVER
CONVERGENCE WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
MAINTAINED CURRENT POPS LATER TONIGHT BUT AGAIN SEVERE THREAT NOT
ALL THAT CLEAR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONLY CHANGES WERE TO ADD SOME ISOLD TSRA CHANCES TO THE FAR SW FA
ALTHOUGH CURRENT CONVECTION WEAKENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID RED RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTN.
AREA OF MID LEVEL ALTOCU WITH THIS INTO PARTS OF NW MN AS WELL
GFK-DTL REGION. STILL COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN THIS AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE MENTION THRU 23Z. OTHERWISE WARM AIR ALOFT SEEN ON VSBL
SAT PIX WITH LACK OF CU FROM BISMARCK AREA TO NEAR STANLEY ND TO
ESTEVAN SK. HRRR AND OTHER VARIOUS WRF MODELS QUITE SIMILAR IN
SHOWING ACTIVITY INCREASING 23Z-01Z IN ERN MT OR FAR WRN ND INTO
SE SASK AND THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST AND NORTHEAST..WITH
THREAT NOT INTO ERN ND TIL LIKELY AFTER 06Z. MOST SHORT RANGE
MODELS ALSO SO A SECOND AREA OF STORMS IN ECNTRL SD INTO CENTRAL
MN. ALL IN ALL BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY GOOD BUT MAIN MID LEVEL JET
AROUND THE BASE OF THE 500 MB LOW IS STILL WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT SO AT THIS POINT THE IDEA OF SEVERE OUTBREAK
FOR ERN ND/NW MN POINTS TOWARD ISOLATED AT BEST AS SOME CLUSTERS
OR A SQUALL LINE MOVES IN. COORD WITH VARIOUS OFFICES AND HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE POPS A BIT MORE. SUNNIER AND LESS WINDY FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STILL EXPECTING A RIDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PUT THE FA IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
DURATION OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS THE FA IN A GENERALLY QUIET
PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOW END PCPN CHANCES AT TIMES.
EXACTLY WHEN A TOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT WITH NO DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONGOING CONVECTION EXITING THE RRV 12Z TUES AND EXITING NW MN BY
MIDDAY. DRY SLOT COMING IN AND PRETTY STRONG 925 MB WINDS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CNTRL ND TUES AFTN AND INTO
PARTS OF NE/ECNTRL ND LATE TUES AFTN/EARLY EVE. AT THIS
POINT...MAY FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME
DVL BASIN WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS OTHER AREAS IN
ERN ND. NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED THIS FCST AS IT WILL PAST 18Z
TUES AND GIVES MID SHIFT TIME TO ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

WRAPAROUND CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NE ND/NW MN TUES
NIGHT..EXITING LAKE OF THE WOODS WED MORNING. BREEZY
WEDNESDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUD/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF POTENTIAL T THROUGH TAF SITES
THEN INCREASING WINDS LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT FEEL
FAR HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL WITH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUING AT OTHER
SITES. LATER TOMORROW DVL BASIN WILL BE SEEING VERY STRONG WINDS
DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS HIGHER THAN 45KTS PSBL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 280444
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ADJUSTED POPS AS CONVECTION STILL WELL WEST OF THE FA. OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES AS WILL BE NOW BE MONITORING FOR SEVERE STORMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS WESTERN ND CONTINUES TO BE SLOW WITH
MAIN ACTION ACROSS W SD...E MT AND ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN MB/SASK
BORDER AREA. A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO FAR S CENTRAL ND
BETWEEN DIK AND BIS AND JUST MOVING ACROSS THE MT/ND BORDER AREA.
STRONGEST SHEAR WITH WAVE OVER W SD AND E MT. BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING STILL ALONG ND/MT BORDER AREA VCNTY SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CUT BACK ON POPS BUT
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR W CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT BUT
UNCERTAIN WITH THAT. HIGH RESOLUTION QUICK UPDATE MODELS DO NOT
BRING ANYTHING INTO THE WEST UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAY BREAK. SEVERE
THREAT ALSO SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. INSTABILITY REMAINS HOWEVER
CONVERGENCE WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
MAINTAINED CURRENT POPS LATER TONIGHT BUT AGAIN SEVERE THREAT NOT
ALL THAT CLEAR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONLY CHANGES WERE TO ADD SOME ISOLD TSRA CHANCES TO THE FAR SW FA
ALTHOUGH CURRENT CONVECTION WEAKENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID RED RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTN.
AREA OF MID LEVEL ALTOCU WITH THIS INTO PARTS OF NW MN AS WELL
GFK-DTL REGION. STILL COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN THIS AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE MENTION THRU 23Z. OTHERWISE WARM AIR ALOFT SEEN ON VSBL
SAT PIX WITH LACK OF CU FROM BISMARCK AREA TO NEAR STANLEY ND TO
ESTEVAN SK. HRRR AND OTHER VARIOUS WRF MODELS QUITE SIMILAR IN
SHOWING ACTIVITY INCREASING 23Z-01Z IN ERN MT OR FAR WRN ND INTO
SE SASK AND THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST AND NORTHEAST..WITH
THREAT NOT INTO ERN ND TIL LIKELY AFTER 06Z. MOST SHORT RANGE
MODELS ALSO SO A SECOND AREA OF STORMS IN ECNTRL SD INTO CENTRAL
MN. ALL IN ALL BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY GOOD BUT MAIN MID LEVEL JET
AROUND THE BASE OF THE 500 MB LOW IS STILL WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT SO AT THIS POINT THE IDEA OF SEVERE OUTBREAK
FOR ERN ND/NW MN POINTS TOWARD ISOLATED AT BEST AS SOME CLUSTERS
OR A SQUALL LINE MOVES IN. COORD WITH VARIOUS OFFICES AND HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE POPS A BIT MORE. SUNNIER AND LESS WINDY FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STILL EXPECTING A RIDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PUT THE FA IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
DURATION OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS THE FA IN A GENERALLY QUIET
PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOW END PCPN CHANCES AT TIMES.
EXACTLY WHEN A TOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT WITH NO DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONGOING CONVECTION EXITING THE RRV 12Z TUES AND EXITING NW MN BY
MIDDAY. DRY SLOT COMING IN AND PRETTY STRONG 925 MB WINDS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CNTRL ND TUES AFTN AND INTO
PARTS OF NE/ECNTRL ND LATE TUES AFTN/EARLY EVE. AT THIS
POINT...MAY FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME
DVL BASIN WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS OTHER AREAS IN
ERN ND. NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED THIS FCST AS IT WILL PAST 18Z
TUES AND GIVES MID SHIFT TIME TO ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

WRAPAROUND CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NE ND/NW MN TUES
NIGHT..EXITING LAKE OF THE WOODS WED MORNING. BREEZY
WEDNESDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUD/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF POTENTIAL T THROUGH TAF SITES
THEN INCREASING WINDS LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT FEEL
FAR HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL WITH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUING AT OTHER
SITES. LATER TOMORROW DVL BASIN WILL BE SEEING VERY STRONG WINDS
DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS HIGHER THAN 45KTS PSBL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KBIS 280352
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1052 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COORDINATED WITH SPC AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 458 HAS BEEN
ISSUED UNTIL 5AM CDT TUESDAY. THIS COVERS ALL COUNTIES IN THE
BISMARCK COUNTY WARNING AREA THAT WERE NOT INCLUDED IN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457. UPDATES FORTHCOMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD BURLEIGH AND EMMONS COUNTIES TO THE EXISTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457...WHICH CONTINUES UNTIL 3AM CDT
TUESDAY. UPDATED PRODUCTS SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED POPS WITH HRRR ENSEMBLE. TRIED TO CAPTURE THE HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED NEXT 6 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE ALLOWING FULL HEATING ACROSS MUST OF WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE 4000+ CAPE WITH
20-30 KTS BULK SHEAR ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WAITING
FOR CAP TO ERODE.

HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE THUNDERSTORM AREAS OF ONE TO NEARLY 2
INCHES MAINLY NORTH. ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.

ON TUESDAY...EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
MODELS DELAYED THE HIGHER WINDS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PRODUCE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
STRONG CAA WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ALBEIT MUCH
LESS THAN TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HAZARDS TO AVIATION INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY. AT 6 PM CDT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST. COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WILL FOLLOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION TUESDAY STRONG WEST WINDS OF
30 TO 45KTS WILL SPREAD FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 280352
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1052 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COORDINATED WITH SPC AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 458 HAS BEEN
ISSUED UNTIL 5AM CDT TUESDAY. THIS COVERS ALL COUNTIES IN THE
BISMARCK COUNTY WARNING AREA THAT WERE NOT INCLUDED IN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457. UPDATES FORTHCOMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD BURLEIGH AND EMMONS COUNTIES TO THE EXISTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457...WHICH CONTINUES UNTIL 3AM CDT
TUESDAY. UPDATED PRODUCTS SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED POPS WITH HRRR ENSEMBLE. TRIED TO CAPTURE THE HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED NEXT 6 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE ALLOWING FULL HEATING ACROSS MUST OF WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE 4000+ CAPE WITH
20-30 KTS BULK SHEAR ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WAITING
FOR CAP TO ERODE.

HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE THUNDERSTORM AREAS OF ONE TO NEARLY 2
INCHES MAINLY NORTH. ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.

ON TUESDAY...EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
MODELS DELAYED THE HIGHER WINDS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PRODUCE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
STRONG CAA WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ALBEIT MUCH
LESS THAN TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HAZARDS TO AVIATION INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY. AT 6 PM CDT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST. COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WILL FOLLOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION TUESDAY STRONG WEST WINDS OF
30 TO 45KTS WILL SPREAD FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA



000
FXUS63 KBIS 280245
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
945 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD BURLEIGH AND EMMONS COUNTIES TO THE EXISTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457...WHICH CONTINUES UNTIL 3AM CDT
TUESDAY. UPDATED PRODUCTS SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED POPS WITH HRRR ENSEMBLE. TRIED TO CAPTURE THE HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED NEXT 6 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE ALLOWING FULL HEATING ACROSS MUST OF WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE 4000+ CAPE WITH
20-30 KTS BULK SHEAR ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WAITING
FOR CAP TO ERODE.

HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE THUNDERSTORM AREAS OF ONE TO NEARLY 2
INCHES MAINLY NORTH. ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.

ON TUESDAY...EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
MODELS DELAYED THE HIGHER WINDS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PRODUCE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
STRONG CAA WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ALBEIT MUCH
LESS THAN TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HAZARDS TO AVIATION INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY. AT 6 PM CDT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST. COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WILL FOLLOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION TUESDAY STRONG WEST WINDS OF
30 TO 45KTS WILL SPREAD FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 280245
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
945 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD BURLEIGH AND EMMONS COUNTIES TO THE EXISTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457...WHICH CONTINUES UNTIL 3AM CDT
TUESDAY. UPDATED PRODUCTS SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED POPS WITH HRRR ENSEMBLE. TRIED TO CAPTURE THE HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED NEXT 6 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE ALLOWING FULL HEATING ACROSS MUST OF WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE 4000+ CAPE WITH
20-30 KTS BULK SHEAR ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WAITING
FOR CAP TO ERODE.

HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE THUNDERSTORM AREAS OF ONE TO NEARLY 2
INCHES MAINLY NORTH. ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.

ON TUESDAY...EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
MODELS DELAYED THE HIGHER WINDS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PRODUCE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
STRONG CAA WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ALBEIT MUCH
LESS THAN TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HAZARDS TO AVIATION INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY. AT 6 PM CDT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST. COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WILL FOLLOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION TUESDAY STRONG WEST WINDS OF
30 TO 45KTS WILL SPREAD FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KFGF 280237
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
937 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS WESTERN ND CONTINUES TO BE SLOW WITH
MAIN ACTION ACROSS W SD...E MT AND ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN MB/SASK
BORDER AREA. A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO FAR S CENTRAL ND
BETWEEN DIK AND BIS AND JUST MOVING ACROSS THE MT/ND BORDER AREA.
STRONGEST SHEAR WITH WAVE OVER W SD AND E MT. BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING STILL ALONG ND/MT BORDER AREA VCNTY SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CUT BACK ON POPS BUT
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR W CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT BUT
UNCERTAIN WITH THAT. HIGH RESOLUTION QUICK UPDATE MODELS DO NOT
BRING ANYTHING INTO THE WEST UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAY BREAK. SEVERE
THREAT ALSO SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. INSTABILITY REMAINS HOWEVER
CONVERGENCE WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
MAINTAINED CURRENT POPS LATER TONIGHT BUT AGAIN SEVERE THREAT NOT
ALL THAT CLEAR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONLY CHANGES WERE TO ADD SOME ISOLD TSRA CHANCES TO THE FAR SW FA
ALTHOUGH CURRENT CONVECTION WEAKENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID RED RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTN.
AREA OF MID LEVEL ALTOCU WITH THIS INTO PARTS OF NW MN AS WELL
GFK-DTL REGION. STILL COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN THIS AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE MENTION THRU 23Z. OTHERWISE WARM AIR ALOFT SEEN ON VSBL
SAT PIX WITH LACK OF CU FROM BISMARCK AREA TO NEAR STANLEY ND TO
ESTEVAN SK. HRRR AND OTHER VARIOUS WRF MODELS QUITE SIMILAR IN
SHOWING ACTIVITY INCREASING 23Z-01Z IN ERN MT OR FAR WRN ND INTO
SE SASK AND THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST AND NORTHEAST..WITH
THREAT NOT INTO ERN ND TIL LIKELY AFTER 06Z. MOST SHORT RANGE
MODELS ALSO SO A SECOND AREA OF STORMS IN ECNTRL SD INTO CENTRAL
MN. ALL IN ALL BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY GOOD BUT MAIN MID LEVEL JET
AROUND THE BASE OF THE 500 MB LOW IS STILL WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT SO AT THIS POINT THE IDEA OF SEVERE OUTBREAK
FOR ERN ND/NW MN POINTS TOWARD ISOLATED AT BEST AS SOME CLUSTERS
OR A SQUALL LINE MOVES IN. COORD WITH VARIOUS OFFICES AND HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE POPS A BIT MORE. SUNNIER AND LESS WINDY FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STILL EXPECTING A RIDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PUT THE FA IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
DURATION OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS THE FA IN A GENERALLY QUIET
PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOW END PCPN CHANCES AT TIMES.
EXACTLY WHEN A TOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT WITH NO DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONGOING CONVECTION EXITING THE RRV 12Z TUES AND EXITING NW MN BY
MIDDAY. DRY SLOT COMING IN AND PRETTY STRONG 925 MB WINDS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CNTRL ND TUES AFTN AND INTO
PARTS OF NE/ECNTRL ND LATE TUES AFTN/EARLY EVE. AT THIS
POINT...MAY FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME
DVL BASIN WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS OTHER AREAS IN
ERN ND. NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED THIS FCST AS IT WILL PAST 18Z
TUES AND GIVES MID SHIFT TIME TO ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

WRAPAROUND CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NE ND/NW MN TUES
NIGHT..EXITING LAKE OF THE WOODS WED MORNING. BREEZY
WEDNESDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUD/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

TIMING OF THUNDER CHANCES MAIN CHALLENGE. BROUGHT T INTO DVL
AROUND 07Z...VALLEY SITES 09-10Z AND LATER FARTHER EAST. WITH LATE
ARRIVAL NOT SURE HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE HOLDING TOGETHER AS
LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER STORMS OTHERWISE VFR. STRONG WINDS TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD IN THE DVL BASIN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 280237
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
937 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS WESTERN ND CONTINUES TO BE SLOW WITH
MAIN ACTION ACROSS W SD...E MT AND ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN MB/SASK
BORDER AREA. A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO FAR S CENTRAL ND
BETWEEN DIK AND BIS AND JUST MOVING ACROSS THE MT/ND BORDER AREA.
STRONGEST SHEAR WITH WAVE OVER W SD AND E MT. BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING STILL ALONG ND/MT BORDER AREA VCNTY SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CUT BACK ON POPS BUT
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR W CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT BUT
UNCERTAIN WITH THAT. HIGH RESOLUTION QUICK UPDATE MODELS DO NOT
BRING ANYTHING INTO THE WEST UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAY BREAK. SEVERE
THREAT ALSO SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. INSTABILITY REMAINS HOWEVER
CONVERGENCE WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
MAINTAINED CURRENT POPS LATER TONIGHT BUT AGAIN SEVERE THREAT NOT
ALL THAT CLEAR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONLY CHANGES WERE TO ADD SOME ISOLD TSRA CHANCES TO THE FAR SW FA
ALTHOUGH CURRENT CONVECTION WEAKENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID RED RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTN.
AREA OF MID LEVEL ALTOCU WITH THIS INTO PARTS OF NW MN AS WELL
GFK-DTL REGION. STILL COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN THIS AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE MENTION THRU 23Z. OTHERWISE WARM AIR ALOFT SEEN ON VSBL
SAT PIX WITH LACK OF CU FROM BISMARCK AREA TO NEAR STANLEY ND TO
ESTEVAN SK. HRRR AND OTHER VARIOUS WRF MODELS QUITE SIMILAR IN
SHOWING ACTIVITY INCREASING 23Z-01Z IN ERN MT OR FAR WRN ND INTO
SE SASK AND THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST AND NORTHEAST..WITH
THREAT NOT INTO ERN ND TIL LIKELY AFTER 06Z. MOST SHORT RANGE
MODELS ALSO SO A SECOND AREA OF STORMS IN ECNTRL SD INTO CENTRAL
MN. ALL IN ALL BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY GOOD BUT MAIN MID LEVEL JET
AROUND THE BASE OF THE 500 MB LOW IS STILL WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT SO AT THIS POINT THE IDEA OF SEVERE OUTBREAK
FOR ERN ND/NW MN POINTS TOWARD ISOLATED AT BEST AS SOME CLUSTERS
OR A SQUALL LINE MOVES IN. COORD WITH VARIOUS OFFICES AND HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE POPS A BIT MORE. SUNNIER AND LESS WINDY FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STILL EXPECTING A RIDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PUT THE FA IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
DURATION OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS THE FA IN A GENERALLY QUIET
PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOW END PCPN CHANCES AT TIMES.
EXACTLY WHEN A TOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT WITH NO DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONGOING CONVECTION EXITING THE RRV 12Z TUES AND EXITING NW MN BY
MIDDAY. DRY SLOT COMING IN AND PRETTY STRONG 925 MB WINDS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CNTRL ND TUES AFTN AND INTO
PARTS OF NE/ECNTRL ND LATE TUES AFTN/EARLY EVE. AT THIS
POINT...MAY FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME
DVL BASIN WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS OTHER AREAS IN
ERN ND. NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED THIS FCST AS IT WILL PAST 18Z
TUES AND GIVES MID SHIFT TIME TO ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

WRAPAROUND CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NE ND/NW MN TUES
NIGHT..EXITING LAKE OF THE WOODS WED MORNING. BREEZY
WEDNESDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUD/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

TIMING OF THUNDER CHANCES MAIN CHALLENGE. BROUGHT T INTO DVL
AROUND 07Z...VALLEY SITES 09-10Z AND LATER FARTHER EAST. WITH LATE
ARRIVAL NOT SURE HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE HOLDING TOGETHER AS
LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER STORMS OTHERWISE VFR. STRONG WINDS TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD IN THE DVL BASIN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 280237
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
937 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS WESTERN ND CONTINUES TO BE SLOW WITH
MAIN ACTION ACROSS W SD...E MT AND ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN MB/SASK
BORDER AREA. A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO FAR S CENTRAL ND
BETWEEN DIK AND BIS AND JUST MOVING ACROSS THE MT/ND BORDER AREA.
STRONGEST SHEAR WITH WAVE OVER W SD AND E MT. BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING STILL ALONG ND/MT BORDER AREA VCNTY SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CUT BACK ON POPS BUT
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR W CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT BUT
UNCERTAIN WITH THAT. HIGH RESOLUTION QUICK UPDATE MODELS DO NOT
BRING ANYTHING INTO THE WEST UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAY BREAK. SEVERE
THREAT ALSO SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. INSTABILITY REMAINS HOWEVER
CONVERGENCE WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
MAINTAINED CURRENT POPS LATER TONIGHT BUT AGAIN SEVERE THREAT NOT
ALL THAT CLEAR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONLY CHANGES WERE TO ADD SOME ISOLD TSRA CHANCES TO THE FAR SW FA
ALTHOUGH CURRENT CONVECTION WEAKENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID RED RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTN.
AREA OF MID LEVEL ALTOCU WITH THIS INTO PARTS OF NW MN AS WELL
GFK-DTL REGION. STILL COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN THIS AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE MENTION THRU 23Z. OTHERWISE WARM AIR ALOFT SEEN ON VSBL
SAT PIX WITH LACK OF CU FROM BISMARCK AREA TO NEAR STANLEY ND TO
ESTEVAN SK. HRRR AND OTHER VARIOUS WRF MODELS QUITE SIMILAR IN
SHOWING ACTIVITY INCREASING 23Z-01Z IN ERN MT OR FAR WRN ND INTO
SE SASK AND THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST AND NORTHEAST..WITH
THREAT NOT INTO ERN ND TIL LIKELY AFTER 06Z. MOST SHORT RANGE
MODELS ALSO SO A SECOND AREA OF STORMS IN ECNTRL SD INTO CENTRAL
MN. ALL IN ALL BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY GOOD BUT MAIN MID LEVEL JET
AROUND THE BASE OF THE 500 MB LOW IS STILL WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT SO AT THIS POINT THE IDEA OF SEVERE OUTBREAK
FOR ERN ND/NW MN POINTS TOWARD ISOLATED AT BEST AS SOME CLUSTERS
OR A SQUALL LINE MOVES IN. COORD WITH VARIOUS OFFICES AND HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE POPS A BIT MORE. SUNNIER AND LESS WINDY FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STILL EXPECTING A RIDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PUT THE FA IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
DURATION OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS THE FA IN A GENERALLY QUIET
PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOW END PCPN CHANCES AT TIMES.
EXACTLY WHEN A TOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT WITH NO DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONGOING CONVECTION EXITING THE RRV 12Z TUES AND EXITING NW MN BY
MIDDAY. DRY SLOT COMING IN AND PRETTY STRONG 925 MB WINDS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CNTRL ND TUES AFTN AND INTO
PARTS OF NE/ECNTRL ND LATE TUES AFTN/EARLY EVE. AT THIS
POINT...MAY FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME
DVL BASIN WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS OTHER AREAS IN
ERN ND. NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED THIS FCST AS IT WILL PAST 18Z
TUES AND GIVES MID SHIFT TIME TO ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

WRAPAROUND CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NE ND/NW MN TUES
NIGHT..EXITING LAKE OF THE WOODS WED MORNING. BREEZY
WEDNESDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUD/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

TIMING OF THUNDER CHANCES MAIN CHALLENGE. BROUGHT T INTO DVL
AROUND 07Z...VALLEY SITES 09-10Z AND LATER FARTHER EAST. WITH LATE
ARRIVAL NOT SURE HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE HOLDING TOGETHER AS
LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER STORMS OTHERWISE VFR. STRONG WINDS TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD IN THE DVL BASIN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KBIS 272350
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
650 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED POPS WITH HRRR ENSEMBLE. TRIED TO CAPTURE THE HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED NEXT 6 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE ALLOWING FULL HEATING ACROSS MUST OF WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE 4000+ CAPE WITH
20-30 KTS BULK SHEAR ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WAITING
FOR CAP TO ERODE.

HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE THUNDERSTORM AREAS OF ONE TO NEARLY 2
INCHES MAINLY NORTH. ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.

ON TUESDAY...EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
MODELS DELAYED THE HIGHER WINDS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PRODUCE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
STRONG CAA WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ALBEIT MUCH
LESS THAN TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HAZARDS TO AVIATION INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY. AT 6 PM CDT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST. COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WILL FOLLOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION TUESDAY STRONG WEST WINDS OF
30 TO 45KTS WILL SPREAD FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA



000
FXUS63 KBIS 272350
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
650 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED POPS WITH HRRR ENSEMBLE. TRIED TO CAPTURE THE HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED NEXT 6 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE ALLOWING FULL HEATING ACROSS MUST OF WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE 4000+ CAPE WITH
20-30 KTS BULK SHEAR ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WAITING
FOR CAP TO ERODE.

HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE THUNDERSTORM AREAS OF ONE TO NEARLY 2
INCHES MAINLY NORTH. ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.

ON TUESDAY...EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
MODELS DELAYED THE HIGHER WINDS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PRODUCE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
STRONG CAA WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ALBEIT MUCH
LESS THAN TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HAZARDS TO AVIATION INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY. AT 6 PM CDT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST. COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WILL FOLLOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION TUESDAY STRONG WEST WINDS OF
30 TO 45KTS WILL SPREAD FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 272350
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
650 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED POPS WITH HRRR ENSEMBLE. TRIED TO CAPTURE THE HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED NEXT 6 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE ALLOWING FULL HEATING ACROSS MUST OF WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE 4000+ CAPE WITH
20-30 KTS BULK SHEAR ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WAITING
FOR CAP TO ERODE.

HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE THUNDERSTORM AREAS OF ONE TO NEARLY 2
INCHES MAINLY NORTH. ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.

ON TUESDAY...EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
MODELS DELAYED THE HIGHER WINDS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PRODUCE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
STRONG CAA WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ALBEIT MUCH
LESS THAN TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HAZARDS TO AVIATION INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY. AT 6 PM CDT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST. COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WILL FOLLOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION TUESDAY STRONG WEST WINDS OF
30 TO 45KTS WILL SPREAD FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 272350
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
650 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED POPS WITH HRRR ENSEMBLE. TRIED TO CAPTURE THE HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED NEXT 6 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE ALLOWING FULL HEATING ACROSS MUST OF WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE 4000+ CAPE WITH
20-30 KTS BULK SHEAR ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WAITING
FOR CAP TO ERODE.

HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE THUNDERSTORM AREAS OF ONE TO NEARLY 2
INCHES MAINLY NORTH. ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.

ON TUESDAY...EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
MODELS DELAYED THE HIGHER WINDS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PRODUCE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
STRONG CAA WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ALBEIT MUCH
LESS THAN TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HAZARDS TO AVIATION INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY. AT 6 PM CDT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST. COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WILL FOLLOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION TUESDAY STRONG WEST WINDS OF
30 TO 45KTS WILL SPREAD FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA



000
FXUS63 KFGF 272334
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONLY CHANGES WERE TO ADD SOME ISOLD TSRA CHANCES TO THE FAR SW FA
ALTHOUGH CURRENT CONVECTION WEAKENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID RED RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTN.
AREA OF MID LEVEL ALTOCU WITH THIS INTO PARTS OF NW MN AS WELL
GFK-DTL REGION. STILL COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN THIS AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE MENTION THRU 23Z. OTHERWISE WARM AIR ALOFT SEEN ON VSBL
SAT PIX WITH LACK OF CU FROM BISMARCK AREA TO NEAR STANLEY ND TO
ESTEVAN SK. HRRR AND OTHER VARIOUS WRF MODELS QUITE SIMILAR IN
SHOWING ACTIVITY INCREASING 23Z-01Z IN ERN MT OR FAR WRN ND INTO
SE SASK AND THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST AND NORTHEAST..WITH
THREAT NOT INTO ERN ND TIL LIKELY AFTER 06Z. MOST SHORT RANGE
MODELS ALSO SO A SECOND AREA OF STORMS IN ECNTRL SD INTO CENTRAL
MN. ALL IN ALL BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY GOOD BUT MAIN MID LEVEL JET
AROUND THE BASE OF THE 500 MB LOW IS STILL WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT SO AT THIS POINT THE IDEA OF SEVERE OUTBREAK
FOR ERN ND/NW MN POINTS TOWARD ISOLATED AT BEST AS SOME CLUSTERS
OR A SQUALL LINE MOVES IN. COORD WITH VARIOUS OFFICES AND HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE POPS A BIT MORE. SUNNIER AND LESS WINDY FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STILL EXPECTING A RIDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PUT THE FA IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
DURATION OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS THE FA IN A GENERALLY QUIET
PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOW END PCPN CHANCES AT TIMES.
EXACTLY WHEN A TOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT WITH NO DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONGOING CONVECTION EXITING THE RRV 12Z TUES AND EXITING NW MN BY
MIDDAY. DRY SLOT COMING IN AND PRETTY STRONG 925 MB WINDS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CNTRL ND TUES AFTN AND INTO
PARTS OF NE/ECNTRL ND LATE TUES AFTN/EARLY EVE. AT THIS
POINT...MAY FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME
DVL BASIN WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS OTHER AREAS IN
ERN ND. NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED THIS FCST AS IT WILL PAST 18Z
TUES AND GIVES MID SHIFT TIME TO ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

WRAPAROUND CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NE ND/NW MN TUES
NIGHT..EXITING LAKE OF THE WOODS WED MORNING. BREEZY
WEDNESDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUD/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

TIMING OF THUNDER CHANCES MAIN CHALLENGE. BROUGHT T INTO DVL
AROUND 07Z...VALLEY SITES 09-10Z AND LATER FARTHER EAST. WITH LATE
ARRIVAL NOT SURE HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE HOLDING TOGETHER AS
LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER STORMS OTHERWISE VFR. STRONG WINDS TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD IN THE DVL BASIN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 272334
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONLY CHANGES WERE TO ADD SOME ISOLD TSRA CHANCES TO THE FAR SW FA
ALTHOUGH CURRENT CONVECTION WEAKENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID RED RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTN.
AREA OF MID LEVEL ALTOCU WITH THIS INTO PARTS OF NW MN AS WELL
GFK-DTL REGION. STILL COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN THIS AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE MENTION THRU 23Z. OTHERWISE WARM AIR ALOFT SEEN ON VSBL
SAT PIX WITH LACK OF CU FROM BISMARCK AREA TO NEAR STANLEY ND TO
ESTEVAN SK. HRRR AND OTHER VARIOUS WRF MODELS QUITE SIMILAR IN
SHOWING ACTIVITY INCREASING 23Z-01Z IN ERN MT OR FAR WRN ND INTO
SE SASK AND THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST AND NORTHEAST..WITH
THREAT NOT INTO ERN ND TIL LIKELY AFTER 06Z. MOST SHORT RANGE
MODELS ALSO SO A SECOND AREA OF STORMS IN ECNTRL SD INTO CENTRAL
MN. ALL IN ALL BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY GOOD BUT MAIN MID LEVEL JET
AROUND THE BASE OF THE 500 MB LOW IS STILL WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT SO AT THIS POINT THE IDEA OF SEVERE OUTBREAK
FOR ERN ND/NW MN POINTS TOWARD ISOLATED AT BEST AS SOME CLUSTERS
OR A SQUALL LINE MOVES IN. COORD WITH VARIOUS OFFICES AND HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE POPS A BIT MORE. SUNNIER AND LESS WINDY FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STILL EXPECTING A RIDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PUT THE FA IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
DURATION OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS THE FA IN A GENERALLY QUIET
PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOW END PCPN CHANCES AT TIMES.
EXACTLY WHEN A TOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT WITH NO DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONGOING CONVECTION EXITING THE RRV 12Z TUES AND EXITING NW MN BY
MIDDAY. DRY SLOT COMING IN AND PRETTY STRONG 925 MB WINDS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CNTRL ND TUES AFTN AND INTO
PARTS OF NE/ECNTRL ND LATE TUES AFTN/EARLY EVE. AT THIS
POINT...MAY FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME
DVL BASIN WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS OTHER AREAS IN
ERN ND. NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED THIS FCST AS IT WILL PAST 18Z
TUES AND GIVES MID SHIFT TIME TO ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

WRAPAROUND CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NE ND/NW MN TUES
NIGHT..EXITING LAKE OF THE WOODS WED MORNING. BREEZY
WEDNESDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUD/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

TIMING OF THUNDER CHANCES MAIN CHALLENGE. BROUGHT T INTO DVL
AROUND 07Z...VALLEY SITES 09-10Z AND LATER FARTHER EAST. WITH LATE
ARRIVAL NOT SURE HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE HOLDING TOGETHER AS
LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER STORMS OTHERWISE VFR. STRONG WINDS TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD IN THE DVL BASIN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 272334
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONLY CHANGES WERE TO ADD SOME ISOLD TSRA CHANCES TO THE FAR SW FA
ALTHOUGH CURRENT CONVECTION WEAKENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID RED RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTN.
AREA OF MID LEVEL ALTOCU WITH THIS INTO PARTS OF NW MN AS WELL
GFK-DTL REGION. STILL COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN THIS AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE MENTION THRU 23Z. OTHERWISE WARM AIR ALOFT SEEN ON VSBL
SAT PIX WITH LACK OF CU FROM BISMARCK AREA TO NEAR STANLEY ND TO
ESTEVAN SK. HRRR AND OTHER VARIOUS WRF MODELS QUITE SIMILAR IN
SHOWING ACTIVITY INCREASING 23Z-01Z IN ERN MT OR FAR WRN ND INTO
SE SASK AND THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST AND NORTHEAST..WITH
THREAT NOT INTO ERN ND TIL LIKELY AFTER 06Z. MOST SHORT RANGE
MODELS ALSO SO A SECOND AREA OF STORMS IN ECNTRL SD INTO CENTRAL
MN. ALL IN ALL BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY GOOD BUT MAIN MID LEVEL JET
AROUND THE BASE OF THE 500 MB LOW IS STILL WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT SO AT THIS POINT THE IDEA OF SEVERE OUTBREAK
FOR ERN ND/NW MN POINTS TOWARD ISOLATED AT BEST AS SOME CLUSTERS
OR A SQUALL LINE MOVES IN. COORD WITH VARIOUS OFFICES AND HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE POPS A BIT MORE. SUNNIER AND LESS WINDY FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STILL EXPECTING A RIDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PUT THE FA IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
DURATION OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS THE FA IN A GENERALLY QUIET
PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOW END PCPN CHANCES AT TIMES.
EXACTLY WHEN A TOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT WITH NO DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONGOING CONVECTION EXITING THE RRV 12Z TUES AND EXITING NW MN BY
MIDDAY. DRY SLOT COMING IN AND PRETTY STRONG 925 MB WINDS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CNTRL ND TUES AFTN AND INTO
PARTS OF NE/ECNTRL ND LATE TUES AFTN/EARLY EVE. AT THIS
POINT...MAY FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME
DVL BASIN WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS OTHER AREAS IN
ERN ND. NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED THIS FCST AS IT WILL PAST 18Z
TUES AND GIVES MID SHIFT TIME TO ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

WRAPAROUND CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NE ND/NW MN TUES
NIGHT..EXITING LAKE OF THE WOODS WED MORNING. BREEZY
WEDNESDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUD/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

TIMING OF THUNDER CHANCES MAIN CHALLENGE. BROUGHT T INTO DVL
AROUND 07Z...VALLEY SITES 09-10Z AND LATER FARTHER EAST. WITH LATE
ARRIVAL NOT SURE HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE HOLDING TOGETHER AS
LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER STORMS OTHERWISE VFR. STRONG WINDS TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD IN THE DVL BASIN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 272334
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONLY CHANGES WERE TO ADD SOME ISOLD TSRA CHANCES TO THE FAR SW FA
ALTHOUGH CURRENT CONVECTION WEAKENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID RED RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTN.
AREA OF MID LEVEL ALTOCU WITH THIS INTO PARTS OF NW MN AS WELL
GFK-DTL REGION. STILL COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN THIS AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE MENTION THRU 23Z. OTHERWISE WARM AIR ALOFT SEEN ON VSBL
SAT PIX WITH LACK OF CU FROM BISMARCK AREA TO NEAR STANLEY ND TO
ESTEVAN SK. HRRR AND OTHER VARIOUS WRF MODELS QUITE SIMILAR IN
SHOWING ACTIVITY INCREASING 23Z-01Z IN ERN MT OR FAR WRN ND INTO
SE SASK AND THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST AND NORTHEAST..WITH
THREAT NOT INTO ERN ND TIL LIKELY AFTER 06Z. MOST SHORT RANGE
MODELS ALSO SO A SECOND AREA OF STORMS IN ECNTRL SD INTO CENTRAL
MN. ALL IN ALL BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY GOOD BUT MAIN MID LEVEL JET
AROUND THE BASE OF THE 500 MB LOW IS STILL WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT SO AT THIS POINT THE IDEA OF SEVERE OUTBREAK
FOR ERN ND/NW MN POINTS TOWARD ISOLATED AT BEST AS SOME CLUSTERS
OR A SQUALL LINE MOVES IN. COORD WITH VARIOUS OFFICES AND HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE POPS A BIT MORE. SUNNIER AND LESS WINDY FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STILL EXPECTING A RIDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PUT THE FA IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
DURATION OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS THE FA IN A GENERALLY QUIET
PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOW END PCPN CHANCES AT TIMES.
EXACTLY WHEN A TOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT WITH NO DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONGOING CONVECTION EXITING THE RRV 12Z TUES AND EXITING NW MN BY
MIDDAY. DRY SLOT COMING IN AND PRETTY STRONG 925 MB WINDS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CNTRL ND TUES AFTN AND INTO
PARTS OF NE/ECNTRL ND LATE TUES AFTN/EARLY EVE. AT THIS
POINT...MAY FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME
DVL BASIN WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS OTHER AREAS IN
ERN ND. NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED THIS FCST AS IT WILL PAST 18Z
TUES AND GIVES MID SHIFT TIME TO ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

WRAPAROUND CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NE ND/NW MN TUES
NIGHT..EXITING LAKE OF THE WOODS WED MORNING. BREEZY
WEDNESDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUD/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

TIMING OF THUNDER CHANCES MAIN CHALLENGE. BROUGHT T INTO DVL
AROUND 07Z...VALLEY SITES 09-10Z AND LATER FARTHER EAST. WITH LATE
ARRIVAL NOT SURE HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE HOLDING TOGETHER AS
LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER STORMS OTHERWISE VFR. STRONG WINDS TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD IN THE DVL BASIN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 272027
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
327 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID RED RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTN.
AREA OF MID LEVEL ALTOCU WITH THIS INTO PARTS OF NW MN AS WELL
GFK-DTL REGION. STILL COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN THIS AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE MENTION THRU 23Z. OTEHRWISE WARM AIR ALOFT SEEN ON VSBL
SAT PIX WITH LACK OF CU FROM BISMARK AREA TO NEAR STANLEY ND TO
ESTEVAN SK. HRRR AND OTHER VARIOUS WRF MODELS QUITE SIMILAR IN
SHOWING ACTIVITY INCREASING 23Z-01Z IN ERN MT OR FAR WRN ND INTO
SE SASK AND THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST AND NORTHEAST..WITH
THREAT NOT INTO ERN ND TIL LIKELY AFTER 06Z. MOST SHORT RANGE
MODELS ALSO SO A SECOND AREA OF STORMS IN ECNTRL SD INTO CENTRAL
MN. ALL IN ALL BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY GOOD BUT MAIN MID LEVEL JET
AROUND THE BASE OF THE 500 MB LOW IS STILL WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT SO AT THIS POINT THE IDEA OF SEVERE OUTBREAK
FOR ERN ND/NW MN POINTS TOWARD ISOLATED AT BEST AS SOME CLUSTERS
OR A SQUALL LINE MOVES IN. COORD WITH VARIOUS OFFICES AND HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE POPS A BIT MORE. SUNNIER AND LESS WINDY FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STILL EXPECTING A RIDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PUT THE FA IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
DURATION OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS THE FA IN A GENERALLY QUIET
PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOW END PCPN CHANCES AT TIMES.
EXACTLY WHEN A TOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT WITH NO DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JULY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONGOING COVNECTION EXITING THE RRV 12Z TUES AND EXITING NW MN BY
MIDDAY. DRY SLOT COMING IN AND PRETTY STRONG 925 MB WINDS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CNTRL ND TUES AFTN AND INTO
PARTS OF NE/ECNTRL ND LATE TUES AFTN/EARLY EVE. AT THIS
POINT...MAY FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME
DVL BASIN WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS OTHER AREAS IN
ERN ND. NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED THIS FCST AS IT WILL PAST 18Z
TUES AND GIVES MID SHIFT TIME TO ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

WRAPAROUND CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NE ND/NW MN TUES
NIGHT..EXITING LAKE OF THE WOODS WED MORNING. BREEZY
WEDNESDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUD/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LOWER BASED CUMULUS FIELD FORMED DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST FA WHERE
THERE WAS SOME FOG THIS MORNING. IT QUICKLY EXPANDED UP THE RED
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE MORNING. THINKING IT SHOULD DIMINISH THRU
THE AFTERNOON AS WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVE IN. FAIRLY STEADY WINDS
SHOULD HOLD UP THRU THE NIGHT AND THEN THE GUSTS SHOULD PICK AGAIN
BY MID TUE MORNING. PUSHED BACK THE ONSET OF TSTMS TO 09Z AT KDVL
AND 11Z INTO KGFK/KFAR. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON LATER TIMING THAN
PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE A LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM
IN THERE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON



000
FXUS63 KFGF 272027
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
327 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID RED RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTN.
AREA OF MID LEVEL ALTOCU WITH THIS INTO PARTS OF NW MN AS WELL
GFK-DTL REGION. STILL COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN THIS AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE MENTION THRU 23Z. OTEHRWISE WARM AIR ALOFT SEEN ON VSBL
SAT PIX WITH LACK OF CU FROM BISMARK AREA TO NEAR STANLEY ND TO
ESTEVAN SK. HRRR AND OTHER VARIOUS WRF MODELS QUITE SIMILAR IN
SHOWING ACTIVITY INCREASING 23Z-01Z IN ERN MT OR FAR WRN ND INTO
SE SASK AND THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST AND NORTHEAST..WITH
THREAT NOT INTO ERN ND TIL LIKELY AFTER 06Z. MOST SHORT RANGE
MODELS ALSO SO A SECOND AREA OF STORMS IN ECNTRL SD INTO CENTRAL
MN. ALL IN ALL BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY GOOD BUT MAIN MID LEVEL JET
AROUND THE BASE OF THE 500 MB LOW IS STILL WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT SO AT THIS POINT THE IDEA OF SEVERE OUTBREAK
FOR ERN ND/NW MN POINTS TOWARD ISOLATED AT BEST AS SOME CLUSTERS
OR A SQUALL LINE MOVES IN. COORD WITH VARIOUS OFFICES AND HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE POPS A BIT MORE. SUNNIER AND LESS WINDY FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STILL EXPECTING A RIDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PUT THE FA IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
DURATION OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS THE FA IN A GENERALLY QUIET
PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOW END PCPN CHANCES AT TIMES.
EXACTLY WHEN A TOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT WITH NO DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JULY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONGOING COVNECTION EXITING THE RRV 12Z TUES AND EXITING NW MN BY
MIDDAY. DRY SLOT COMING IN AND PRETTY STRONG 925 MB WINDS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CNTRL ND TUES AFTN AND INTO
PARTS OF NE/ECNTRL ND LATE TUES AFTN/EARLY EVE. AT THIS
POINT...MAY FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME
DVL BASIN WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS OTHER AREAS IN
ERN ND. NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED THIS FCST AS IT WILL PAST 18Z
TUES AND GIVES MID SHIFT TIME TO ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

WRAPAROUND CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NE ND/NW MN TUES
NIGHT..EXITING LAKE OF THE WOODS WED MORNING. BREEZY
WEDNESDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUD/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LOWER BASED CUMULUS FIELD FORMED DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST FA WHERE
THERE WAS SOME FOG THIS MORNING. IT QUICKLY EXPANDED UP THE RED
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE MORNING. THINKING IT SHOULD DIMINISH THRU
THE AFTERNOON AS WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVE IN. FAIRLY STEADY WINDS
SHOULD HOLD UP THRU THE NIGHT AND THEN THE GUSTS SHOULD PICK AGAIN
BY MID TUE MORNING. PUSHED BACK THE ONSET OF TSTMS TO 09Z AT KDVL
AND 11Z INTO KGFK/KFAR. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON LATER TIMING THAN
PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE A LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM
IN THERE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KBIS 271952
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE ALLOWING FULL HEATING ACROSS MUST OF WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE 4000+ CAPE WITH
20-30 KTS BULK SHEAR ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WAITING
FOR CAP TO ERODE.

HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE THUNDERSTORM AREAS OF ONE TO NEARLY 2
INCHES MAINLY NORTH. ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.

ON TUESDAY...EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
MODELS DELAYED THE HIGHER WINDS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PRODUCE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
STRONG CAA WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ALBEIT MUCH
LESS THAN TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION ARE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WEST
SPREADING EAST TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY STRONG WINDS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH LOCAL MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS. WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 30 TO 48 KTS AFTER 12Z
TUESDAY WESTERN PORTION. STRONG WINDS SPREADING EAST AFTER 18Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA



000
FXUS63 KBIS 271952
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE ALLOWING FULL HEATING ACROSS MUST OF WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE 4000+ CAPE WITH
20-30 KTS BULK SHEAR ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WAITING
FOR CAP TO ERODE.

HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE THUNDERSTORM AREAS OF ONE TO NEARLY 2
INCHES MAINLY NORTH. ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.

ON TUESDAY...EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
MODELS DELAYED THE HIGHER WINDS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PRODUCE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
STRONG CAA WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ALBEIT MUCH
LESS THAN TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION ARE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WEST
SPREADING EAST TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY STRONG WINDS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH LOCAL MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS. WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 30 TO 48 KTS AFTER 12Z
TUESDAY WESTERN PORTION. STRONG WINDS SPREADING EAST AFTER 18Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 271952
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE ALLOWING FULL HEATING ACROSS MUST OF WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE 4000+ CAPE WITH
20-30 KTS BULK SHEAR ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WAITING
FOR CAP TO ERODE.

HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE THUNDERSTORM AREAS OF ONE TO NEARLY 2
INCHES MAINLY NORTH. ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.

ON TUESDAY...EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
MODELS DELAYED THE HIGHER WINDS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PRODUCE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
STRONG CAA WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ALBEIT MUCH
LESS THAN TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION ARE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WEST
SPREADING EAST TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY STRONG WINDS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH LOCAL MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS. WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 30 TO 48 KTS AFTER 12Z
TUESDAY WESTERN PORTION. STRONG WINDS SPREADING EAST AFTER 18Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 271812
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
112 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE OVER 4000 CAPE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE SO NOTHING TO HINDER THE
DESTABILIZATION. TRYING TO GENTLY REFINE THE POPS WITH THE HRRR
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THIS DELAYS THE INSET CENTRAL A FEW HOURS.
PLANNING ON A SPECIAL 20Z SOUNDING FOR BIS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 913 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SETTLING OUT ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST HRRR
SUGGESTS A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE STRONGER CONVECTION GETS GOING
ASSOCIATED WITHE THE WARM/COLD FRONTS MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. UPDATED POPS AND CLOUDS FOR THIS.
FOCUSED ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A FEW ECHOS ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR ALONG SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. FOR MORNING UPDATE WILL ADD SOME LOW
POPS OVER THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND ADDRESSES THE SEVERE THREAT LATER ON TODAY WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO HEADLINE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS IT DRAWS NEARER TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...A 1004MB SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WILL UNDERGO A DEEPENING PHASE TO 991MB BY 12Z TUESDAY...AS
THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN.

SPC FORECAST CONTINUES WITH THE ENHANCED AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS
TODAY/TONIGHT. HAVE MENTIONED SEVERE WORDING IN THE NORTHWEST AND
FAR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH 18Z TODAY...THEN INTRODUCED THE SEVERE
MENTION BEGINNING 21Z WEST...AND SPREADING THIS EASTBOUND THROUGH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION REFLECTIVITY TRENDS
SUGGEST THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT AREA FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THIS AREA
IS IN THE PROXIMITY A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASING AND BECOMING MAXIMIZED ALONG THE
FRONT. THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL 21Z. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST 21Z-00Z AND EXPAND
AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY RANGING BETWEEN 20 AND 35 MPH...THEN
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL
ON TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY...STACKED UP LOW RUNS ALONG/SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP
OVER THE AREA WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 850MB WIND
SPEEDS WELL IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS IN THE WEST MIXING DOWN.
THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MANY
PARTS OF THE WEST...AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WHETHER THIS WILL NEED
EXPANDING LATER. ALONG WITH THE WIND AND THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW.
GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AS THE LOW WORKS EAST. A CLAP OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY NOTED...WITH SOME SHOWERS
REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS MAINLY BRINGING DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION ARE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WEST
SPREADING EAST TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY STRONG WINDS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH LOCAL MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA



000
FXUS63 KBIS 271812
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
112 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE OVER 4000 CAPE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE SO NOTHING TO HINDER THE
DESTABILIZATION. TRYING TO GENTLY REFINE THE POPS WITH THE HRRR
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THIS DELAYS THE INSET CENTRAL A FEW HOURS.
PLANNING ON A SPECIAL 20Z SOUNDING FOR BIS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 913 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SETTLING OUT ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST HRRR
SUGGESTS A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE STRONGER CONVECTION GETS GOING
ASSOCIATED WITHE THE WARM/COLD FRONTS MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. UPDATED POPS AND CLOUDS FOR THIS.
FOCUSED ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A FEW ECHOS ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR ALONG SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. FOR MORNING UPDATE WILL ADD SOME LOW
POPS OVER THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND ADDRESSES THE SEVERE THREAT LATER ON TODAY WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO HEADLINE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS IT DRAWS NEARER TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...A 1004MB SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WILL UNDERGO A DEEPENING PHASE TO 991MB BY 12Z TUESDAY...AS
THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN.

SPC FORECAST CONTINUES WITH THE ENHANCED AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS
TODAY/TONIGHT. HAVE MENTIONED SEVERE WORDING IN THE NORTHWEST AND
FAR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH 18Z TODAY...THEN INTRODUCED THE SEVERE
MENTION BEGINNING 21Z WEST...AND SPREADING THIS EASTBOUND THROUGH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION REFLECTIVITY TRENDS
SUGGEST THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT AREA FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THIS AREA
IS IN THE PROXIMITY A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASING AND BECOMING MAXIMIZED ALONG THE
FRONT. THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL 21Z. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST 21Z-00Z AND EXPAND
AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY RANGING BETWEEN 20 AND 35 MPH...THEN
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL
ON TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY...STACKED UP LOW RUNS ALONG/SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP
OVER THE AREA WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 850MB WIND
SPEEDS WELL IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS IN THE WEST MIXING DOWN.
THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MANY
PARTS OF THE WEST...AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WHETHER THIS WILL NEED
EXPANDING LATER. ALONG WITH THE WIND AND THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW.
GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AS THE LOW WORKS EAST. A CLAP OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY NOTED...WITH SOME SHOWERS
REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS MAINLY BRINGING DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION ARE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WEST
SPREADING EAST TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY STRONG WINDS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH LOCAL MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KFGF 271811
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
111 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 109 PM  CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONTINUED TO COORDINATE WITH WFO BIS ON SLOWING TIMING OF MAIN
TSTM ACTION TONIGHT SO ADJUSTED POPS SOME MORE WITH MOSTLY NOT
TIL 05-06Z IN DVL REGION SPREADING EAST. UNSURE OF SEVERE THREAT
AT THAT TIME...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE AS
EXPECT A SQUALL LINE EVENT. DID KEEP ISOLD -SHRA IN A SMALL AREA
NEAR A MID LEVEL VORT MOVING FROM NEAR FARGO INTO THE BEMIDJI AREA
THIS AFTN. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY ABOVE
850 MB FOR A LITTLE ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM BREAKING THE
CAP A BIT TOO SOON THIS AFTERNOON...SO PREFER THE GFS.

FOR TODAY...IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR 90.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO HOLD OF UNTIL TONIGHT WITH A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE NAM DOES BREAK THE CAP BY LATE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE DVL BASIN.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AS
A 50KT LLJ INCREASES INTO THE AREA AFTER DARK. DEEP LAYERED SHEAR
PROFILES WILL ALSO INCREASE AFTER DARK...AND EXPECT A POTENTIAL
BOW ECHO OR SEVERAL SEVERE CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS AROUND 00Z...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. PWATS ARE
PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES ALSO...SO TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR
NEAR ANY STORM.

ON TUE...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN
THE NORTH. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THIS STRONG MID SUMMER
SYSTEM...AND COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE GFS IS VERY
STRONG WITH WINDS...SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FOR TUE NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTH OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRIER/COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN.

FOR WED...EXPECT A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH ABOUT 30-40KT TO MIX
FROM THE NW. ONCE AGAIN...IT COULD BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS AND TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

LONG WAVE PATTERN WAS ZONAL WITH A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA AND A FLAT TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
/NORTHERN PLAINS. PATTERN AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON
BAY/GREAT LAKES. THE GFS BECOMES FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY A DEGREE LOWER
FOR FRI AND SUN AND LESS SO FOR THU AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LOWER BASED CUMULUS FIELD FORMED DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST FA WHERE
THERE WAS SOME FOG THIS MORNING. IT QUICKLY EXPANDED UP THE RED
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE MORNING. THINKING IT SHOULD DIMINISH THRU
THE AFTERNOON AS WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVE IN. FAIRLY STEADY WINDS
SHOULD HOLD UP THRU THE NIGHT AND THEN THE GUSTS SHOULD PICK AGAIN
BY MID TUE MORNING. PUSHED BACK THE ONSET OF TSTMS TO 09Z AT KDVL
AND 11Z INTO KGFK/KFAR. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON LATER TIMING THAN
PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE A LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM
IN THERE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 271811
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
111 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 109 PM  CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONTINUED TO COORDINATE WITH WFO BIS ON SLOWING TIMING OF MAIN
TSTM ACTION TONIGHT SO ADJUSTED POPS SOME MORE WITH MOSTLY NOT
TIL 05-06Z IN DVL REGION SPREADING EAST. UNSURE OF SEVERE THREAT
AT THAT TIME...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE AS
EXPECT A SQUALL LINE EVENT. DID KEEP ISOLD -SHRA IN A SMALL AREA
NEAR A MID LEVEL VORT MOVING FROM NEAR FARGO INTO THE BEMIDJI AREA
THIS AFTN. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY ABOVE
850 MB FOR A LITTLE ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM BREAKING THE
CAP A BIT TOO SOON THIS AFTERNOON...SO PREFER THE GFS.

FOR TODAY...IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR 90.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO HOLD OF UNTIL TONIGHT WITH A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE NAM DOES BREAK THE CAP BY LATE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE DVL BASIN.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AS
A 50KT LLJ INCREASES INTO THE AREA AFTER DARK. DEEP LAYERED SHEAR
PROFILES WILL ALSO INCREASE AFTER DARK...AND EXPECT A POTENTIAL
BOW ECHO OR SEVERAL SEVERE CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS AROUND 00Z...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. PWATS ARE
PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES ALSO...SO TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR
NEAR ANY STORM.

ON TUE...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN
THE NORTH. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THIS STRONG MID SUMMER
SYSTEM...AND COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE GFS IS VERY
STRONG WITH WINDS...SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FOR TUE NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTH OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRIER/COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN.

FOR WED...EXPECT A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH ABOUT 30-40KT TO MIX
FROM THE NW. ONCE AGAIN...IT COULD BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS AND TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

LONG WAVE PATTERN WAS ZONAL WITH A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA AND A FLAT TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
/NORTHERN PLAINS. PATTERN AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON
BAY/GREAT LAKES. THE GFS BECOMES FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY A DEGREE LOWER
FOR FRI AND SUN AND LESS SO FOR THU AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LOWER BASED CUMULUS FIELD FORMED DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST FA WHERE
THERE WAS SOME FOG THIS MORNING. IT QUICKLY EXPANDED UP THE RED
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE MORNING. THINKING IT SHOULD DIMINISH THRU
THE AFTERNOON AS WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVE IN. FAIRLY STEADY WINDS
SHOULD HOLD UP THRU THE NIGHT AND THEN THE GUSTS SHOULD PICK AGAIN
BY MID TUE MORNING. PUSHED BACK THE ONSET OF TSTMS TO 09Z AT KDVL
AND 11Z INTO KGFK/KFAR. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON LATER TIMING THAN
PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE A LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM
IN THERE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 271811
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
111 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 109 PM  CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONTINUED TO COORDINATE WITH WFO BIS ON SLOWING TIMING OF MAIN
TSTM ACTION TONIGHT SO ADJUSTED POPS SOME MORE WITH MOSTLY NOT
TIL 05-06Z IN DVL REGION SPREADING EAST. UNSURE OF SEVERE THREAT
AT THAT TIME...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE AS
EXPECT A SQUALL LINE EVENT. DID KEEP ISOLD -SHRA IN A SMALL AREA
NEAR A MID LEVEL VORT MOVING FROM NEAR FARGO INTO THE BEMIDJI AREA
THIS AFTN. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY ABOVE
850 MB FOR A LITTLE ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM BREAKING THE
CAP A BIT TOO SOON THIS AFTERNOON...SO PREFER THE GFS.

FOR TODAY...IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR 90.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO HOLD OF UNTIL TONIGHT WITH A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE NAM DOES BREAK THE CAP BY LATE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE DVL BASIN.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AS
A 50KT LLJ INCREASES INTO THE AREA AFTER DARK. DEEP LAYERED SHEAR
PROFILES WILL ALSO INCREASE AFTER DARK...AND EXPECT A POTENTIAL
BOW ECHO OR SEVERAL SEVERE CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS AROUND 00Z...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. PWATS ARE
PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES ALSO...SO TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR
NEAR ANY STORM.

ON TUE...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN
THE NORTH. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THIS STRONG MID SUMMER
SYSTEM...AND COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE GFS IS VERY
STRONG WITH WINDS...SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FOR TUE NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTH OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRIER/COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN.

FOR WED...EXPECT A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH ABOUT 30-40KT TO MIX
FROM THE NW. ONCE AGAIN...IT COULD BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS AND TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

LONG WAVE PATTERN WAS ZONAL WITH A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA AND A FLAT TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
/NORTHERN PLAINS. PATTERN AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON
BAY/GREAT LAKES. THE GFS BECOMES FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY A DEGREE LOWER
FOR FRI AND SUN AND LESS SO FOR THU AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LOWER BASED CUMULUS FIELD FORMED DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST FA WHERE
THERE WAS SOME FOG THIS MORNING. IT QUICKLY EXPANDED UP THE RED
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE MORNING. THINKING IT SHOULD DIMINISH THRU
THE AFTERNOON AS WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVE IN. FAIRLY STEADY WINDS
SHOULD HOLD UP THRU THE NIGHT AND THEN THE GUSTS SHOULD PICK AGAIN
BY MID TUE MORNING. PUSHED BACK THE ONSET OF TSTMS TO 09Z AT KDVL
AND 11Z INTO KGFK/KFAR. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON LATER TIMING THAN
PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE A LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM
IN THERE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 271811
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
111 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 109 PM  CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONTINUED TO COORDINATE WITH WFO BIS ON SLOWING TIMING OF MAIN
TSTM ACTION TONIGHT SO ADJUSTED POPS SOME MORE WITH MOSTLY NOT
TIL 05-06Z IN DVL REGION SPREADING EAST. UNSURE OF SEVERE THREAT
AT THAT TIME...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE AS
EXPECT A SQUALL LINE EVENT. DID KEEP ISOLD -SHRA IN A SMALL AREA
NEAR A MID LEVEL VORT MOVING FROM NEAR FARGO INTO THE BEMIDJI AREA
THIS AFTN. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY ABOVE
850 MB FOR A LITTLE ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM BREAKING THE
CAP A BIT TOO SOON THIS AFTERNOON...SO PREFER THE GFS.

FOR TODAY...IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR 90.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO HOLD OF UNTIL TONIGHT WITH A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE NAM DOES BREAK THE CAP BY LATE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE DVL BASIN.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AS
A 50KT LLJ INCREASES INTO THE AREA AFTER DARK. DEEP LAYERED SHEAR
PROFILES WILL ALSO INCREASE AFTER DARK...AND EXPECT A POTENTIAL
BOW ECHO OR SEVERAL SEVERE CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS AROUND 00Z...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. PWATS ARE
PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES ALSO...SO TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR
NEAR ANY STORM.

ON TUE...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN
THE NORTH. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THIS STRONG MID SUMMER
SYSTEM...AND COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE GFS IS VERY
STRONG WITH WINDS...SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FOR TUE NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTH OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRIER/COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN.

FOR WED...EXPECT A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH ABOUT 30-40KT TO MIX
FROM THE NW. ONCE AGAIN...IT COULD BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS AND TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

LONG WAVE PATTERN WAS ZONAL WITH A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA AND A FLAT TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
/NORTHERN PLAINS. PATTERN AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON
BAY/GREAT LAKES. THE GFS BECOMES FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY A DEGREE LOWER
FOR FRI AND SUN AND LESS SO FOR THU AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LOWER BASED CUMULUS FIELD FORMED DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST FA WHERE
THERE WAS SOME FOG THIS MORNING. IT QUICKLY EXPANDED UP THE RED
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE MORNING. THINKING IT SHOULD DIMINISH THRU
THE AFTERNOON AS WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVE IN. FAIRLY STEADY WINDS
SHOULD HOLD UP THRU THE NIGHT AND THEN THE GUSTS SHOULD PICK AGAIN
BY MID TUE MORNING. PUSHED BACK THE ONSET OF TSTMS TO 09Z AT KDVL
AND 11Z INTO KGFK/KFAR. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON LATER TIMING THAN
PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE A LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM
IN THERE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 271521
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1021 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WARM AND MUGGY DAY AHEAD. SOME MID CLOUDS SHOWERS JAMESTOWN AREA
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND DESPITE A WARM MID LAYER COULD SEE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED T-STORM WITH
THIS LITTLE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY. OTHERWISE WARM LAYER ALOFT
PUTTING A CAP ON THINGS AND EXPECT NO CUMULUS OUTSIDE OF AREA OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOSITURE. VARIOUS CONVECTIVE MODELS AND
INCOMING NAM ALL SLOW DOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FAR WRN
ND SEVERAL HOURS AND REALLY SLOW DOWN THE ADVANCE OF T-STORMS
EASTWARD INTO ERN ND/RRV. THUS DID SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO KEEP MOST
AREAS DRY THRU AT LEAST 03Z (EXCEPT FAR WEST) AND THEN ADVANCED
PRECIP A BIT SLOWER THAN PREV FCST. FURTHER FINE TUNING LIKELY
NEEDED AS MORE DATA COMES IN. CERTAINLY MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE
TODAY WILL BE SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN....ERN MT AND WRN ND.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM BREAKING THE
CAP A BIT TOO SOON THIS AFTERNOON...SO PREFER THE GFS.

FOR TODAY...IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR 90.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO HOLD OF UNTIL TONIGHT WITH A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE NAM DOES BREAK THE CAP BY LATE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE DVL BASIN.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AS
A 50KT LLJ INCREASES INTO THE AREA AFTER DARK. DEEP LAYERED SHEAR
PROFILES WILL ALSO INCREASE AFTER DARK...AND EXPECT A POTENTIAL
BOW ECHO OR SEVERAL SEVERE CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS AROUND 00Z...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. PWATS ARE
PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES ALSO...SO TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR
NEAR ANY STORM.

ON TUE...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN
THE NORTH. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THIS STRONG MID SUMMER
SYSTEM...AND COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE GFS IS VERY
STRONG WITH WINDS...SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FOR TUE NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTH OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRIER/COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN.

FOR WED...EXPECT A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH ABOUT 30-40KT TO MIX
FROM THE NW. ONCE AGAIN...IT COULD BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS AND TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

LONG WAVE PATTERN WAS ZONAL WITH A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA AND A FLAT TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
/NORTHERN PLAINS. PATTERN AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON
BAY/GREAT LAKES. THE GFS BECOMES FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY A DEGREE LOWER
FOR FRI AND SUN AND LESS SO FOR THU AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH 13Z WHERE IT
CLEAR...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE THREAT FOR
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...AND WILL
TRY TO TIME THIS THREAT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK



000
FXUS63 KFGF 271521
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1021 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WARM AND MUGGY DAY AHEAD. SOME MID CLOUDS SHOWERS JAMESTOWN AREA
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND DESPITE A WARM MID LAYER COULD SEE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED T-STORM WITH
THIS LITTLE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY. OTHERWISE WARM LAYER ALOFT
PUTTING A CAP ON THINGS AND EXPECT NO CUMULUS OUTSIDE OF AREA OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOSITURE. VARIOUS CONVECTIVE MODELS AND
INCOMING NAM ALL SLOW DOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FAR WRN
ND SEVERAL HOURS AND REALLY SLOW DOWN THE ADVANCE OF T-STORMS
EASTWARD INTO ERN ND/RRV. THUS DID SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO KEEP MOST
AREAS DRY THRU AT LEAST 03Z (EXCEPT FAR WEST) AND THEN ADVANCED
PRECIP A BIT SLOWER THAN PREV FCST. FURTHER FINE TUNING LIKELY
NEEDED AS MORE DATA COMES IN. CERTAINLY MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE
TODAY WILL BE SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN....ERN MT AND WRN ND.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM BREAKING THE
CAP A BIT TOO SOON THIS AFTERNOON...SO PREFER THE GFS.

FOR TODAY...IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR 90.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO HOLD OF UNTIL TONIGHT WITH A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE NAM DOES BREAK THE CAP BY LATE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE DVL BASIN.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AS
A 50KT LLJ INCREASES INTO THE AREA AFTER DARK. DEEP LAYERED SHEAR
PROFILES WILL ALSO INCREASE AFTER DARK...AND EXPECT A POTENTIAL
BOW ECHO OR SEVERAL SEVERE CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS AROUND 00Z...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. PWATS ARE
PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES ALSO...SO TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR
NEAR ANY STORM.

ON TUE...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN
THE NORTH. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THIS STRONG MID SUMMER
SYSTEM...AND COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE GFS IS VERY
STRONG WITH WINDS...SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FOR TUE NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTH OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRIER/COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN.

FOR WED...EXPECT A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH ABOUT 30-40KT TO MIX
FROM THE NW. ONCE AGAIN...IT COULD BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS AND TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

LONG WAVE PATTERN WAS ZONAL WITH A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA AND A FLAT TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
/NORTHERN PLAINS. PATTERN AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON
BAY/GREAT LAKES. THE GFS BECOMES FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY A DEGREE LOWER
FOR FRI AND SUN AND LESS SO FOR THU AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH 13Z WHERE IT
CLEAR...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE THREAT FOR
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...AND WILL
TRY TO TIME THIS THREAT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KBIS 271416
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
916 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SETTLING OUT ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST HRRR
SUGGESTS A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE STRONGER CONVECTION GETS GOING
ASSOCIATED WITHE THE WARM/COLD FRONTS MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. UPDATED POPS AND CLOUDS FOR THIS.
FOCUSED ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A FEW ECHOS ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR ALONG SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. FOR MORNING UPDATE WILL ADD SOME LOW
POPS OVER THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND ADDRESSES THE SEVERE THREAT LATER ON TODAY WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO HEADLINE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS IT DRAWS NEARER TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...A 1004MB SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WILL UNDERGO A DEEPENING PHASE TO 991MB BY 12Z TUESDAY...AS
THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN.

SPC FORECAST CONTINUES WITH THE ENHANCED AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS
TODAY/TONIGHT. HAVE MENTIONED SEVERE WORDING IN THE NORTHWEST AND
FAR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH 18Z TODAY...THEN INTRODUCED THE SEVERE
MENTION BEGINNING 21Z WEST...AND SPREADING THIS EASTBOUND THROUGH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION REFLECTIVITY TRENDS
SUGGEST THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT AREA FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THIS AREA
IS IN THE PROXIMITY A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASING AND BECOMING MAXIMIZED ALONG THE
FRONT. THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL 21Z. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST 21Z-00Z AND EXPAND
AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY RANGING BETWEEN 20 AND 35 MPH...THEN
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL
ON TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY...STACKED UP LOW RUNS ALONG/SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP
OVER THE AREA WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 850MB WIND
SPEEDS WELL IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS IN THE WEST MIXING DOWN.
THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MANY
PARTS OF THE WEST...AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WHETHER THIS WILL NEED
EXPANDING LATER. ALONG WITH THE WIND AND THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW.
GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AS THE LOW WORKS EAST. A CLAP OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY NOTED...WITH SOME SHOWERS
REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS MAINLY BRINGING DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 913 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
TUESDAY...THEN SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE BEGINNING
IN THE WEST BETWEEN 21Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY...THEN EXPANDING INTO
THE CENTRAL TERMINALS MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. OVERALL VFR CIGS/VSBYS
BUT MVFR CIGS FORECAST AT KISN BEGINNING AT 06Z TUESDAY. LOW VFR AT
THE REMAINING AERODROMES ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HAVE
USED A PREDOMINATE TSRA AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK MONDAY EVENING BUT KEPT A
VCTS AT KBIS/KJMS UNTIL WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA



000
FXUS63 KBIS 271416
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
916 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SETTLING OUT ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST HRRR
SUGGESTS A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE STRONGER CONVECTION GETS GOING
ASSOCIATED WITHE THE WARM/COLD FRONTS MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. UPDATED POPS AND CLOUDS FOR THIS.
FOCUSED ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A FEW ECHOS ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR ALONG SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. FOR MORNING UPDATE WILL ADD SOME LOW
POPS OVER THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND ADDRESSES THE SEVERE THREAT LATER ON TODAY WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO HEADLINE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS IT DRAWS NEARER TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...A 1004MB SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WILL UNDERGO A DEEPENING PHASE TO 991MB BY 12Z TUESDAY...AS
THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN.

SPC FORECAST CONTINUES WITH THE ENHANCED AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS
TODAY/TONIGHT. HAVE MENTIONED SEVERE WORDING IN THE NORTHWEST AND
FAR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH 18Z TODAY...THEN INTRODUCED THE SEVERE
MENTION BEGINNING 21Z WEST...AND SPREADING THIS EASTBOUND THROUGH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION REFLECTIVITY TRENDS
SUGGEST THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT AREA FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THIS AREA
IS IN THE PROXIMITY A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASING AND BECOMING MAXIMIZED ALONG THE
FRONT. THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL 21Z. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST 21Z-00Z AND EXPAND
AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY RANGING BETWEEN 20 AND 35 MPH...THEN
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL
ON TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY...STACKED UP LOW RUNS ALONG/SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP
OVER THE AREA WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 850MB WIND
SPEEDS WELL IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS IN THE WEST MIXING DOWN.
THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MANY
PARTS OF THE WEST...AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WHETHER THIS WILL NEED
EXPANDING LATER. ALONG WITH THE WIND AND THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW.
GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AS THE LOW WORKS EAST. A CLAP OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY NOTED...WITH SOME SHOWERS
REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS MAINLY BRINGING DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 913 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
TUESDAY...THEN SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE BEGINNING
IN THE WEST BETWEEN 21Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY...THEN EXPANDING INTO
THE CENTRAL TERMINALS MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. OVERALL VFR CIGS/VSBYS
BUT MVFR CIGS FORECAST AT KISN BEGINNING AT 06Z TUESDAY. LOW VFR AT
THE REMAINING AERODROMES ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HAVE
USED A PREDOMINATE TSRA AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK MONDAY EVENING BUT KEPT A
VCTS AT KBIS/KJMS UNTIL WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 271416
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
916 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SETTLING OUT ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST HRRR
SUGGESTS A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE STRONGER CONVECTION GETS GOING
ASSOCIATED WITHE THE WARM/COLD FRONTS MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. UPDATED POPS AND CLOUDS FOR THIS.
FOCUSED ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A FEW ECHOS ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR ALONG SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. FOR MORNING UPDATE WILL ADD SOME LOW
POPS OVER THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND ADDRESSES THE SEVERE THREAT LATER ON TODAY WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO HEADLINE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS IT DRAWS NEARER TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...A 1004MB SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WILL UNDERGO A DEEPENING PHASE TO 991MB BY 12Z TUESDAY...AS
THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN.

SPC FORECAST CONTINUES WITH THE ENHANCED AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS
TODAY/TONIGHT. HAVE MENTIONED SEVERE WORDING IN THE NORTHWEST AND
FAR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH 18Z TODAY...THEN INTRODUCED THE SEVERE
MENTION BEGINNING 21Z WEST...AND SPREADING THIS EASTBOUND THROUGH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION REFLECTIVITY TRENDS
SUGGEST THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT AREA FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THIS AREA
IS IN THE PROXIMITY A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASING AND BECOMING MAXIMIZED ALONG THE
FRONT. THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL 21Z. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST 21Z-00Z AND EXPAND
AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY RANGING BETWEEN 20 AND 35 MPH...THEN
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL
ON TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY...STACKED UP LOW RUNS ALONG/SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP
OVER THE AREA WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 850MB WIND
SPEEDS WELL IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS IN THE WEST MIXING DOWN.
THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MANY
PARTS OF THE WEST...AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WHETHER THIS WILL NEED
EXPANDING LATER. ALONG WITH THE WIND AND THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW.
GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AS THE LOW WORKS EAST. A CLAP OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY NOTED...WITH SOME SHOWERS
REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS MAINLY BRINGING DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 913 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
TUESDAY...THEN SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE BEGINNING
IN THE WEST BETWEEN 21Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY...THEN EXPANDING INTO
THE CENTRAL TERMINALS MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. OVERALL VFR CIGS/VSBYS
BUT MVFR CIGS FORECAST AT KISN BEGINNING AT 06Z TUESDAY. LOW VFR AT
THE REMAINING AERODROMES ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HAVE
USED A PREDOMINATE TSRA AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK MONDAY EVENING BUT KEPT A
VCTS AT KBIS/KJMS UNTIL WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA



000
FXUS63 KBIS 271133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A FEW ECHOS ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR ALONG SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. FOR MORNING UPDATE WILL ADD SOME LOW
POPS OVER THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND ADDRESSES THE SEVERE THREAT LATER ON TODAY WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO HEADLINE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS IT DRAWS NEARER TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...A 1004MB SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WILL UNDERGO A DEEPENING PHASE TO 991MB BY 12Z TUESDAY...AS
THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN.

SPC FORECAST CONTINUES WITH THE ENHANCED AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS
TODAY/TONIGHT. HAVE MENTIONED SEVERE WORDING IN THE NORTHWEST AND
FAR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH 18Z TODAY...THEN INTRODUCED THE SEVERE
MENTION BEGINNING 21Z WEST...AND SPREADING THIS EASTBOUND THROUGH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION REFLECTIVITY TRENDS
SUGGEST THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT AREA FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THIS AREA
IS IN THE PROXIMITY A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASING AND BECOMING MAXIMIZED ALONG THE
FRONT. THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL 21Z. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST 21Z-00Z AND EXPAND
AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY RANGING BETWEEN 20 AND 35 MPH...THEN
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL
ON TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY...STACKED UP LOW RUNS ALONG/SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP
OVER THE AREA WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 850MB WIND
SPEEDS WELL IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS IN THE WEST MIXING DOWN.
THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MANY
PARTS OF THE WEST...AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WHETHER THIS WILL NEED
EXPANDING LATER. ALONG WITH THE WIND AND THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW.
GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AS THE LOW WORKS EAST. A CLAP OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY NOTED...WITH SOME SHOWERS
REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS MAINLY BRINGING DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
TUESDAY...THEN SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE BEGINNING
IN THE WEST BETWEEN 21Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY...THEN EXPANDING INTO
THE CENTRAL TERMINALS MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. OVERALL VFR CIGS/VSBYS
BUT MVFR CIGS FORECAST AT KISN BEGINNING AT 06Z TUESDAY. LOW VFR AT
THE REMAINING AERODROMES ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HAVE
USED A PREDOMINATE TSRA AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK MONDAY EVENING BUT KEPT A
VCTS AT KBIS/KJMS UNTIL WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 271133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A FEW ECHOS ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR ALONG SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. FOR MORNING UPDATE WILL ADD SOME LOW
POPS OVER THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND ADDRESSES THE SEVERE THREAT LATER ON TODAY WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO HEADLINE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS IT DRAWS NEARER TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...A 1004MB SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WILL UNDERGO A DEEPENING PHASE TO 991MB BY 12Z TUESDAY...AS
THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN.

SPC FORECAST CONTINUES WITH THE ENHANCED AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS
TODAY/TONIGHT. HAVE MENTIONED SEVERE WORDING IN THE NORTHWEST AND
FAR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH 18Z TODAY...THEN INTRODUCED THE SEVERE
MENTION BEGINNING 21Z WEST...AND SPREADING THIS EASTBOUND THROUGH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION REFLECTIVITY TRENDS
SUGGEST THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT AREA FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THIS AREA
IS IN THE PROXIMITY A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASING AND BECOMING MAXIMIZED ALONG THE
FRONT. THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL 21Z. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST 21Z-00Z AND EXPAND
AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY RANGING BETWEEN 20 AND 35 MPH...THEN
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL
ON TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY...STACKED UP LOW RUNS ALONG/SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP
OVER THE AREA WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 850MB WIND
SPEEDS WELL IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS IN THE WEST MIXING DOWN.
THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MANY
PARTS OF THE WEST...AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WHETHER THIS WILL NEED
EXPANDING LATER. ALONG WITH THE WIND AND THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW.
GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AS THE LOW WORKS EAST. A CLAP OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY NOTED...WITH SOME SHOWERS
REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS MAINLY BRINGING DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
TUESDAY...THEN SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE BEGINNING
IN THE WEST BETWEEN 21Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY...THEN EXPANDING INTO
THE CENTRAL TERMINALS MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. OVERALL VFR CIGS/VSBYS
BUT MVFR CIGS FORECAST AT KISN BEGINNING AT 06Z TUESDAY. LOW VFR AT
THE REMAINING AERODROMES ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HAVE
USED A PREDOMINATE TSRA AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK MONDAY EVENING BUT KEPT A
VCTS AT KBIS/KJMS UNTIL WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 271133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A FEW ECHOS ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR ALONG SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. FOR MORNING UPDATE WILL ADD SOME LOW
POPS OVER THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND ADDRESSES THE SEVERE THREAT LATER ON TODAY WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO HEADLINE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS IT DRAWS NEARER TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...A 1004MB SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WILL UNDERGO A DEEPENING PHASE TO 991MB BY 12Z TUESDAY...AS
THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN.

SPC FORECAST CONTINUES WITH THE ENHANCED AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS
TODAY/TONIGHT. HAVE MENTIONED SEVERE WORDING IN THE NORTHWEST AND
FAR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH 18Z TODAY...THEN INTRODUCED THE SEVERE
MENTION BEGINNING 21Z WEST...AND SPREADING THIS EASTBOUND THROUGH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION REFLECTIVITY TRENDS
SUGGEST THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT AREA FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THIS AREA
IS IN THE PROXIMITY A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASING AND BECOMING MAXIMIZED ALONG THE
FRONT. THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL 21Z. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST 21Z-00Z AND EXPAND
AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY RANGING BETWEEN 20 AND 35 MPH...THEN
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL
ON TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY...STACKED UP LOW RUNS ALONG/SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP
OVER THE AREA WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 850MB WIND
SPEEDS WELL IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS IN THE WEST MIXING DOWN.
THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MANY
PARTS OF THE WEST...AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WHETHER THIS WILL NEED
EXPANDING LATER. ALONG WITH THE WIND AND THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW.
GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AS THE LOW WORKS EAST. A CLAP OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY NOTED...WITH SOME SHOWERS
REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS MAINLY BRINGING DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
TUESDAY...THEN SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE BEGINNING
IN THE WEST BETWEEN 21Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY...THEN EXPANDING INTO
THE CENTRAL TERMINALS MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. OVERALL VFR CIGS/VSBYS
BUT MVFR CIGS FORECAST AT KISN BEGINNING AT 06Z TUESDAY. LOW VFR AT
THE REMAINING AERODROMES ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HAVE
USED A PREDOMINATE TSRA AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK MONDAY EVENING BUT KEPT A
VCTS AT KBIS/KJMS UNTIL WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 271133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A FEW ECHOS ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR ALONG SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. FOR MORNING UPDATE WILL ADD SOME LOW
POPS OVER THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND ADDRESSES THE SEVERE THREAT LATER ON TODAY WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO HEADLINE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS IT DRAWS NEARER TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...A 1004MB SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WILL UNDERGO A DEEPENING PHASE TO 991MB BY 12Z TUESDAY...AS
THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN.

SPC FORECAST CONTINUES WITH THE ENHANCED AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS
TODAY/TONIGHT. HAVE MENTIONED SEVERE WORDING IN THE NORTHWEST AND
FAR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH 18Z TODAY...THEN INTRODUCED THE SEVERE
MENTION BEGINNING 21Z WEST...AND SPREADING THIS EASTBOUND THROUGH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION REFLECTIVITY TRENDS
SUGGEST THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT AREA FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THIS AREA
IS IN THE PROXIMITY A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASING AND BECOMING MAXIMIZED ALONG THE
FRONT. THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL 21Z. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST 21Z-00Z AND EXPAND
AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY RANGING BETWEEN 20 AND 35 MPH...THEN
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL
ON TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY...STACKED UP LOW RUNS ALONG/SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP
OVER THE AREA WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 850MB WIND
SPEEDS WELL IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS IN THE WEST MIXING DOWN.
THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MANY
PARTS OF THE WEST...AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WHETHER THIS WILL NEED
EXPANDING LATER. ALONG WITH THE WIND AND THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW.
GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AS THE LOW WORKS EAST. A CLAP OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY NOTED...WITH SOME SHOWERS
REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS MAINLY BRINGING DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
TUESDAY...THEN SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE BEGINNING
IN THE WEST BETWEEN 21Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY...THEN EXPANDING INTO
THE CENTRAL TERMINALS MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. OVERALL VFR CIGS/VSBYS
BUT MVFR CIGS FORECAST AT KISN BEGINNING AT 06Z TUESDAY. LOW VFR AT
THE REMAINING AERODROMES ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HAVE
USED A PREDOMINATE TSRA AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK MONDAY EVENING BUT KEPT A
VCTS AT KBIS/KJMS UNTIL WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS



000
FXUS63 KFGF 271057
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
557 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WE WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS THIS MORNING TO THE FAR SOUTH NEAR SOME
DYING CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM BREAKING THE
CAP A BIT TOO SOON THIS AFTERNOON...SO PREFER THE GFS.

FOR TODAY...IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR 90.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO HOLD OF UNTIL TONIGHT WITH A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE NAM DOES BREAK THE CAP BY LATE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE DVL BASIN.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AS
A 50KT LLJ INCREASES INTO THE AREA AFTER DARK. DEEP LAYERED SHEAR
PROFILES WILL ALSO INCREASE AFTER DARK...AND EXPECT A POTENTIAL
BOW ECHO OR SEVERAL SEVERE CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS AROUND 00Z...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. PWATS ARE
PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES ALSO...SO TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR
NEAR ANY STORM.

ON TUE...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN
THE NORTH. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THIS STRONG MID SUMMER
SYSTEM...AND COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE GFS IS VERY
STRONG WITH WINDS...SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FOR TUE NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTH OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRIER/COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN.

FOR WED...EXPECT A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH ABOUT 30-40KT TO MIX
FROM THE NW. ONCE AGAIN...IT COULD BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS AND TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

LONG WAVE PATTERN WAS ZONAL WITH A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA AND A FLAT TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
/NORTHERN PLAINS. PATTERN AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON
BAY/GREAT LAKES. THE GFS BECOMES FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY A DEGREE LOWER
FOR FRI AND SUN AND LESS SO FOR THU AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH 13Z WHERE IT
CLEAR...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE THREAT FOR
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...AND WILL
TRY TO TIME THIS THREAT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 271057
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
557 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WE WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS THIS MORNING TO THE FAR SOUTH NEAR SOME
DYING CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM BREAKING THE
CAP A BIT TOO SOON THIS AFTERNOON...SO PREFER THE GFS.

FOR TODAY...IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR 90.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO HOLD OF UNTIL TONIGHT WITH A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE NAM DOES BREAK THE CAP BY LATE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE DVL BASIN.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AS
A 50KT LLJ INCREASES INTO THE AREA AFTER DARK. DEEP LAYERED SHEAR
PROFILES WILL ALSO INCREASE AFTER DARK...AND EXPECT A POTENTIAL
BOW ECHO OR SEVERAL SEVERE CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS AROUND 00Z...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. PWATS ARE
PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES ALSO...SO TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR
NEAR ANY STORM.

ON TUE...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN
THE NORTH. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THIS STRONG MID SUMMER
SYSTEM...AND COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE GFS IS VERY
STRONG WITH WINDS...SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FOR TUE NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTH OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRIER/COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN.

FOR WED...EXPECT A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH ABOUT 30-40KT TO MIX
FROM THE NW. ONCE AGAIN...IT COULD BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS AND TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

LONG WAVE PATTERN WAS ZONAL WITH A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA AND A FLAT TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
/NORTHERN PLAINS. PATTERN AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON
BAY/GREAT LAKES. THE GFS BECOMES FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY A DEGREE LOWER
FOR FRI AND SUN AND LESS SO FOR THU AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH 13Z WHERE IT
CLEAR...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE THREAT FOR
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...AND WILL
TRY TO TIME THIS THREAT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK



000
FXUS63 KFGF 271057
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
557 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WE WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS THIS MORNING TO THE FAR SOUTH NEAR SOME
DYING CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM BREAKING THE
CAP A BIT TOO SOON THIS AFTERNOON...SO PREFER THE GFS.

FOR TODAY...IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR 90.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO HOLD OF UNTIL TONIGHT WITH A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE NAM DOES BREAK THE CAP BY LATE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE DVL BASIN.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AS
A 50KT LLJ INCREASES INTO THE AREA AFTER DARK. DEEP LAYERED SHEAR
PROFILES WILL ALSO INCREASE AFTER DARK...AND EXPECT A POTENTIAL
BOW ECHO OR SEVERAL SEVERE CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS AROUND 00Z...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. PWATS ARE
PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES ALSO...SO TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR
NEAR ANY STORM.

ON TUE...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN
THE NORTH. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THIS STRONG MID SUMMER
SYSTEM...AND COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE GFS IS VERY
STRONG WITH WINDS...SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FOR TUE NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTH OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRIER/COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN.

FOR WED...EXPECT A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH ABOUT 30-40KT TO MIX
FROM THE NW. ONCE AGAIN...IT COULD BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS AND TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

LONG WAVE PATTERN WAS ZONAL WITH A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA AND A FLAT TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
/NORTHERN PLAINS. PATTERN AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON
BAY/GREAT LAKES. THE GFS BECOMES FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY A DEGREE LOWER
FOR FRI AND SUN AND LESS SO FOR THU AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH 13Z WHERE IT
CLEAR...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE THREAT FOR
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...AND WILL
TRY TO TIME THIS THREAT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 271057
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
557 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WE WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS THIS MORNING TO THE FAR SOUTH NEAR SOME
DYING CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM BREAKING THE
CAP A BIT TOO SOON THIS AFTERNOON...SO PREFER THE GFS.

FOR TODAY...IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR 90.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO HOLD OF UNTIL TONIGHT WITH A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE NAM DOES BREAK THE CAP BY LATE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE DVL BASIN.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AS
A 50KT LLJ INCREASES INTO THE AREA AFTER DARK. DEEP LAYERED SHEAR
PROFILES WILL ALSO INCREASE AFTER DARK...AND EXPECT A POTENTIAL
BOW ECHO OR SEVERAL SEVERE CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS AROUND 00Z...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. PWATS ARE
PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES ALSO...SO TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR
NEAR ANY STORM.

ON TUE...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN
THE NORTH. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THIS STRONG MID SUMMER
SYSTEM...AND COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE GFS IS VERY
STRONG WITH WINDS...SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FOR TUE NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTH OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRIER/COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN.

FOR WED...EXPECT A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH ABOUT 30-40KT TO MIX
FROM THE NW. ONCE AGAIN...IT COULD BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS AND TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

LONG WAVE PATTERN WAS ZONAL WITH A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA AND A FLAT TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
/NORTHERN PLAINS. PATTERN AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON
BAY/GREAT LAKES. THE GFS BECOMES FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY A DEGREE LOWER
FOR FRI AND SUN AND LESS SO FOR THU AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH 13Z WHERE IT
CLEAR...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE THREAT FOR
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...AND WILL
TRY TO TIME THIS THREAT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 271057
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
557 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WE WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS THIS MORNING TO THE FAR SOUTH NEAR SOME
DYING CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM BREAKING THE
CAP A BIT TOO SOON THIS AFTERNOON...SO PREFER THE GFS.

FOR TODAY...IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR 90.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO HOLD OF UNTIL TONIGHT WITH A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE NAM DOES BREAK THE CAP BY LATE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE DVL BASIN.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AS
A 50KT LLJ INCREASES INTO THE AREA AFTER DARK. DEEP LAYERED SHEAR
PROFILES WILL ALSO INCREASE AFTER DARK...AND EXPECT A POTENTIAL
BOW ECHO OR SEVERAL SEVERE CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS AROUND 00Z...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. PWATS ARE
PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES ALSO...SO TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR
NEAR ANY STORM.

ON TUE...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN
THE NORTH. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THIS STRONG MID SUMMER
SYSTEM...AND COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE GFS IS VERY
STRONG WITH WINDS...SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FOR TUE NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTH OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRIER/COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN.

FOR WED...EXPECT A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH ABOUT 30-40KT TO MIX
FROM THE NW. ONCE AGAIN...IT COULD BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS AND TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

LONG WAVE PATTERN WAS ZONAL WITH A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA AND A FLAT TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
/NORTHERN PLAINS. PATTERN AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON
BAY/GREAT LAKES. THE GFS BECOMES FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY A DEGREE LOWER
FOR FRI AND SUN AND LESS SO FOR THU AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH 13Z WHERE IT
CLEAR...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE THREAT FOR
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...AND WILL
TRY TO TIME THIS THREAT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 271057
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
557 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WE WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS THIS MORNING TO THE FAR SOUTH NEAR SOME
DYING CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM BREAKING THE
CAP A BIT TOO SOON THIS AFTERNOON...SO PREFER THE GFS.

FOR TODAY...IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR 90.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO HOLD OF UNTIL TONIGHT WITH A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE NAM DOES BREAK THE CAP BY LATE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE DVL BASIN.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AS
A 50KT LLJ INCREASES INTO THE AREA AFTER DARK. DEEP LAYERED SHEAR
PROFILES WILL ALSO INCREASE AFTER DARK...AND EXPECT A POTENTIAL
BOW ECHO OR SEVERAL SEVERE CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS AROUND 00Z...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. PWATS ARE
PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES ALSO...SO TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR
NEAR ANY STORM.

ON TUE...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN
THE NORTH. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THIS STRONG MID SUMMER
SYSTEM...AND COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE GFS IS VERY
STRONG WITH WINDS...SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FOR TUE NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTH OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRIER/COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN.

FOR WED...EXPECT A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH ABOUT 30-40KT TO MIX
FROM THE NW. ONCE AGAIN...IT COULD BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS AND TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

LONG WAVE PATTERN WAS ZONAL WITH A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA AND A FLAT TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
/NORTHERN PLAINS. PATTERN AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON
BAY/GREAT LAKES. THE GFS BECOMES FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY A DEGREE LOWER
FOR FRI AND SUN AND LESS SO FOR THU AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH 13Z WHERE IT
CLEAR...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE THREAT FOR
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...AND WILL
TRY TO TIME THIS THREAT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 270854
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
354 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM BREAKING THE
CAP A BIT TOO SOON THIS AFTERNOON...SO PREFER THE GFS.

FOR TODAY...IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR 90.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO HOLD OF UNTIL TONIGHT WITH A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE NAM DOES BREAK THE CAP BY LATE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE DVL BASIN.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AS
A 50KT LLJ INCREASES INTO THE AREA AFTER DARK. DEEP LAYERED SHEAR
PROFILES WILL ALSO INCREASE AFTER DARK...AND EXPECT A POTENTIAL
BOW ECHO OR SEVERAL SEVERE CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS AROUND 00Z...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. PWATS ARE
PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES ALSO...SO TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR
NEAR ANY STORM.

ON TUE...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN
THE NORTH. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THIS STRONG MID SUMMER
SYSTEM...AND COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE GFS IS VERY
STRONG WITH WINDS...SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FOR TUE NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTH OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRIER/COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN.

FOR WED...EXPECT A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH ABOUT 30-40KT TO MIX
FROM THE NW. ONCE AGAIN...IT COULD BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS AND TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

LONG WAVE PATTERN WAS ZONAL WITH A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA AND A FLAT TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
/NORTHERN PLAINS. PATTERN AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON
BAY/GREAT LAKES. THE GFS BECOMES FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY A DEGREE LOWER
FOR FRI AND SUN AND LESS SO FOR THU AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. WINDS GUSTING TOMORROW AFTN
AROUND 25 KTS. CONVECTION INITIATES IN WESTERN ND AND MOVES EAST
INTO THE DVL BSN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...JK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 270854
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
354 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM BREAKING THE
CAP A BIT TOO SOON THIS AFTERNOON...SO PREFER THE GFS.

FOR TODAY...IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR 90.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO HOLD OF UNTIL TONIGHT WITH A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE NAM DOES BREAK THE CAP BY LATE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE DVL BASIN.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AS
A 50KT LLJ INCREASES INTO THE AREA AFTER DARK. DEEP LAYERED SHEAR
PROFILES WILL ALSO INCREASE AFTER DARK...AND EXPECT A POTENTIAL
BOW ECHO OR SEVERAL SEVERE CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS AROUND 00Z...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. PWATS ARE
PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES ALSO...SO TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR
NEAR ANY STORM.

ON TUE...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN
THE NORTH. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THIS STRONG MID SUMMER
SYSTEM...AND COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE GFS IS VERY
STRONG WITH WINDS...SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FOR TUE NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTH OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRIER/COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN.

FOR WED...EXPECT A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH ABOUT 30-40KT TO MIX
FROM THE NW. ONCE AGAIN...IT COULD BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS AND TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

LONG WAVE PATTERN WAS ZONAL WITH A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA AND A FLAT TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
/NORTHERN PLAINS. PATTERN AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON
BAY/GREAT LAKES. THE GFS BECOMES FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY A DEGREE LOWER
FOR FRI AND SUN AND LESS SO FOR THU AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. WINDS GUSTING TOMORROW AFTN
AROUND 25 KTS. CONVECTION INITIATES IN WESTERN ND AND MOVES EAST
INTO THE DVL BSN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...JK



000
FXUS63 KBIS 270832
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
332 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO HEADLINE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS IT DRAWS NEARER TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...A 1004MB SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WILL UNDERGO A DEEPENING PHASE TO 991MB BY 12Z TUESDAY...AS
THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN.

SPC FORECAST CONTINUES WITH THE ENHANCED AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS
TODAY/TONIGHT. HAVE MENTIONED SEVERE WORDING IN THE NORTHWEST AND
FAR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH 18Z TODAY...THEN INTRODUCED THE SEVERE
MENTION BEGINNING 21Z WEST...AND SPREADING THIS EASTBOUND THROUGH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION REFLECTIVITY TRENDS
SUGGEST THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT AREA FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THIS AREA
IS IN THE PROXIMITY A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASING AND BECOMING MAXIMIZED ALONG THE
FRONT. THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL 21Z. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST 21Z-00Z AND EXPAND
AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY RANGING BETWEEN 20 AND 35 MPH...THEN
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL
ON TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY...STACKED UP LOW RUNS ALONG/SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP
OVER THE AREA WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 850MB WIND
SPEEDS WELL IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS IN THE WEST MIXING DOWN.
THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MANY
PARTS OF THE WEST...AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WHETHER THIS WILL NEED
EXPANDING LATER. ALONG WITH THE WIND AND THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW.
GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AS THE LOW WORKS EAST. A CLAP OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY NOTED...WITH SOME SHOWERS
REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS MAINLY BRINGING DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS CLOUDS/IFR CIGS TO AFFECT
KBIS/KJMS TOWARD 12Z MONDAY...HOWEVER WILL GIVE THIS SOME ADDITIONAL
TIME BEFORE GOING WITH A PREDOMINATE CLOUD GROUP. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF KBIS/KJMS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY COULD
PRODUCE LOWER CLOUDS INTO THESE TERMINALS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. OTHERWISE...A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21Z MONDAY THROUGH THEN END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH A VCTS AND TRY TO BECOME MORE
SPECIFIC WITH THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 270832
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
332 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO HEADLINE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS IT DRAWS NEARER TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...A 1004MB SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WILL UNDERGO A DEEPENING PHASE TO 991MB BY 12Z TUESDAY...AS
THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN.

SPC FORECAST CONTINUES WITH THE ENHANCED AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS
TODAY/TONIGHT. HAVE MENTIONED SEVERE WORDING IN THE NORTHWEST AND
FAR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH 18Z TODAY...THEN INTRODUCED THE SEVERE
MENTION BEGINNING 21Z WEST...AND SPREADING THIS EASTBOUND THROUGH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION REFLECTIVITY TRENDS
SUGGEST THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT AREA FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THIS AREA
IS IN THE PROXIMITY A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASING AND BECOMING MAXIMIZED ALONG THE
FRONT. THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL 21Z. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST 21Z-00Z AND EXPAND
AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY RANGING BETWEEN 20 AND 35 MPH...THEN
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL
ON TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY...STACKED UP LOW RUNS ALONG/SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP
OVER THE AREA WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 850MB WIND
SPEEDS WELL IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS IN THE WEST MIXING DOWN.
THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MANY
PARTS OF THE WEST...AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WHETHER THIS WILL NEED
EXPANDING LATER. ALONG WITH THE WIND AND THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW.
GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AS THE LOW WORKS EAST. A CLAP OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY NOTED...WITH SOME SHOWERS
REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS MAINLY BRINGING DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS CLOUDS/IFR CIGS TO AFFECT
KBIS/KJMS TOWARD 12Z MONDAY...HOWEVER WILL GIVE THIS SOME ADDITIONAL
TIME BEFORE GOING WITH A PREDOMINATE CLOUD GROUP. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF KBIS/KJMS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY COULD
PRODUCE LOWER CLOUDS INTO THESE TERMINALS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. OTHERWISE...A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21Z MONDAY THROUGH THEN END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH A VCTS AND TRY TO BECOME MORE
SPECIFIC WITH THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 270536
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1236 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LATEST LOCAL RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
GRANT/SIOUX/EMMONS COUNTIES. MOVEMENT ON THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE
TAKING ON MORE OF A NORTHEAST TREND...AND THIS IS SOMEWHAT
SUPPORTED IN THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP13. THUS...HAVE COORDINATED
WITH ABERDEEN WFO TO CONTINUE MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. REGIONALLY...THE NEXT AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT/LOW LEVEL JET. THE NAM/HRRR/RAP13 SUGGESTS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GRAZING OUR NORTHWEST CORNER TOWARD 12Z MONDAY. REST
OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS EXPIRED. ONLY A SMALL AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...OVER GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES. KEPT HIGHER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THERE THROUGH MIDNIGHT CDT...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EARLIER CONVECTION AXIS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LATER TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTION OVER
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO TAKE SEVERAL COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH. ALL
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES ARE NOW OUT...AND TOOK OUT SOME WESTERN
COUNTIES. THOSE REMAINING IN THE WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT INCLUDE
MCLEAN...MERCER...OLIVER...MORTON...HETTINGER...GRANT.

CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH...AND EXPECT SOUTHERN
END OF LINE TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY THIS EVENING. HAD TO ADD SOME
MENTION OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD INTO
SHERIDAN/WELLS/BURLEIGH/KIDDER...AS STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER. DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS OUTSIDE THE WATCH AREA...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR
ADAMS/SIOUX COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES FROM BOTTINEAU/ROLETTE
COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD TO BOWMAN COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
CONTINUES FOR THIS AREA AND EAST TO PIERCE/ROLETTE TO
MORTON/GRANT...BUT WILL ALLOW THE WATCH TO EXPIRE FOR SOME OF THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...NAMELY BURKE...MOUNTRAIL...MCKENZIE AND BILLINGS
COUNTIES.

LINE OF STORMS IS MAINLY ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH
HAS MOVED EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

BLENDED THE CURRENT POPS WITH THE HRRR ENSEMBLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF 2 PM CDT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INITIATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
BUFKIT 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP IN PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BIS-JMS
SO USED THIS AS THE EASTWARD EXTENT FOR THE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS WEAK TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW COMING ON
SHORE ACROSS WASH/OR. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE
COLD FRONT IT WILL ONLY MAKE IT THROUGH WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LIKELY RETREAT TO THE NORTHWEST AS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES MORE PREDOMINANT LATE
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING TO MONTANA BY MONDAY
MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL
DIMINISH CENTRAL AND RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST.

ON MONDAY MID LEVEL COOLING AND INCREASING MID LEVEL ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000.
WITH COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SET TO HELP BREAK THE CAP SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING
AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK TOMORROW EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW.
THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE UPPER LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...A DEEP SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...WITH A WARM
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER. AFTERNOON HEATING
ACROSS A VERY WARM AND MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY YIELD CAPE
VALUES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG. AFTERNOON CAPING DUE TO AN
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION FROM FORMING
ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WHEN MID LEVEL COOLING AND STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES VIA
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. INITIALLY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. ONCE THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE...A TRANSITION TO DAMAGING LINE SEGMENTS
(WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL) APPEARS LIKELY.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...A SECONDARY PRESSURE SURGE WILL PRODUCE
VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH PRESSURE RISES BETWEEN
15 AND 20 MB/6HOUR...AND A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...WIND GUSTS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH READINGS ON AVERAGE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS CLOUDS/IFR CIGS TO AFFECT
KBIS/KJMS TOWARD 12Z MONDAY...HOWEVER WILL GIVE THIS SOME
ADDITIONAL TIME BEFORE GOING WITH A PREDOMINATE CLOUD GROUP. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF KBIS/KJMS THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY COULD PRODUCE LOWER CLOUDS INTO THESE TERMINALS WITH A
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND. OTHERWISE...A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21Z
MONDAY THROUGH THEN END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
VCTS AND TRY TO BECOME MORE SPECIFIC WITH THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 270536
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1236 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LATEST LOCAL RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
GRANT/SIOUX/EMMONS COUNTIES. MOVEMENT ON THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE
TAKING ON MORE OF A NORTHEAST TREND...AND THIS IS SOMEWHAT
SUPPORTED IN THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP13. THUS...HAVE COORDINATED
WITH ABERDEEN WFO TO CONTINUE MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. REGIONALLY...THE NEXT AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT/LOW LEVEL JET. THE NAM/HRRR/RAP13 SUGGESTS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GRAZING OUR NORTHWEST CORNER TOWARD 12Z MONDAY. REST
OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS EXPIRED. ONLY A SMALL AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...OVER GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES. KEPT HIGHER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THERE THROUGH MIDNIGHT CDT...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EARLIER CONVECTION AXIS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LATER TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTION OVER
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO TAKE SEVERAL COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH. ALL
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES ARE NOW OUT...AND TOOK OUT SOME WESTERN
COUNTIES. THOSE REMAINING IN THE WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT INCLUDE
MCLEAN...MERCER...OLIVER...MORTON...HETTINGER...GRANT.

CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH...AND EXPECT SOUTHERN
END OF LINE TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY THIS EVENING. HAD TO ADD SOME
MENTION OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD INTO
SHERIDAN/WELLS/BURLEIGH/KIDDER...AS STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER. DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS OUTSIDE THE WATCH AREA...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR
ADAMS/SIOUX COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES FROM BOTTINEAU/ROLETTE
COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD TO BOWMAN COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
CONTINUES FOR THIS AREA AND EAST TO PIERCE/ROLETTE TO
MORTON/GRANT...BUT WILL ALLOW THE WATCH TO EXPIRE FOR SOME OF THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...NAMELY BURKE...MOUNTRAIL...MCKENZIE AND BILLINGS
COUNTIES.

LINE OF STORMS IS MAINLY ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH
HAS MOVED EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

BLENDED THE CURRENT POPS WITH THE HRRR ENSEMBLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF 2 PM CDT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INITIATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
BUFKIT 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP IN PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BIS-JMS
SO USED THIS AS THE EASTWARD EXTENT FOR THE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS WEAK TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW COMING ON
SHORE ACROSS WASH/OR. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE
COLD FRONT IT WILL ONLY MAKE IT THROUGH WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LIKELY RETREAT TO THE NORTHWEST AS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES MORE PREDOMINANT LATE
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING TO MONTANA BY MONDAY
MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL
DIMINISH CENTRAL AND RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST.

ON MONDAY MID LEVEL COOLING AND INCREASING MID LEVEL ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000.
WITH COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SET TO HELP BREAK THE CAP SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING
AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK TOMORROW EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW.
THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE UPPER LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...A DEEP SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...WITH A WARM
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER. AFTERNOON HEATING
ACROSS A VERY WARM AND MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY YIELD CAPE
VALUES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG. AFTERNOON CAPING DUE TO AN
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION FROM FORMING
ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WHEN MID LEVEL COOLING AND STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES VIA
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. INITIALLY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. ONCE THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE...A TRANSITION TO DAMAGING LINE SEGMENTS
(WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL) APPEARS LIKELY.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...A SECONDARY PRESSURE SURGE WILL PRODUCE
VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH PRESSURE RISES BETWEEN
15 AND 20 MB/6HOUR...AND A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...WIND GUSTS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH READINGS ON AVERAGE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS CLOUDS/IFR CIGS TO AFFECT
KBIS/KJMS TOWARD 12Z MONDAY...HOWEVER WILL GIVE THIS SOME
ADDITIONAL TIME BEFORE GOING WITH A PREDOMINATE CLOUD GROUP. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF KBIS/KJMS THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY COULD PRODUCE LOWER CLOUDS INTO THESE TERMINALS WITH A
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND. OTHERWISE...A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21Z
MONDAY THROUGH THEN END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
VCTS AND TRY TO BECOME MORE SPECIFIC WITH THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 270536
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1236 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LATEST LOCAL RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
GRANT/SIOUX/EMMONS COUNTIES. MOVEMENT ON THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE
TAKING ON MORE OF A NORTHEAST TREND...AND THIS IS SOMEWHAT
SUPPORTED IN THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP13. THUS...HAVE COORDINATED
WITH ABERDEEN WFO TO CONTINUE MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. REGIONALLY...THE NEXT AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT/LOW LEVEL JET. THE NAM/HRRR/RAP13 SUGGESTS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GRAZING OUR NORTHWEST CORNER TOWARD 12Z MONDAY. REST
OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS EXPIRED. ONLY A SMALL AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...OVER GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES. KEPT HIGHER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THERE THROUGH MIDNIGHT CDT...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EARLIER CONVECTION AXIS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LATER TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTION OVER
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO TAKE SEVERAL COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH. ALL
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES ARE NOW OUT...AND TOOK OUT SOME WESTERN
COUNTIES. THOSE REMAINING IN THE WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT INCLUDE
MCLEAN...MERCER...OLIVER...MORTON...HETTINGER...GRANT.

CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH...AND EXPECT SOUTHERN
END OF LINE TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY THIS EVENING. HAD TO ADD SOME
MENTION OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD INTO
SHERIDAN/WELLS/BURLEIGH/KIDDER...AS STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER. DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS OUTSIDE THE WATCH AREA...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR
ADAMS/SIOUX COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES FROM BOTTINEAU/ROLETTE
COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD TO BOWMAN COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
CONTINUES FOR THIS AREA AND EAST TO PIERCE/ROLETTE TO
MORTON/GRANT...BUT WILL ALLOW THE WATCH TO EXPIRE FOR SOME OF THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...NAMELY BURKE...MOUNTRAIL...MCKENZIE AND BILLINGS
COUNTIES.

LINE OF STORMS IS MAINLY ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH
HAS MOVED EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

BLENDED THE CURRENT POPS WITH THE HRRR ENSEMBLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF 2 PM CDT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INITIATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
BUFKIT 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP IN PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BIS-JMS
SO USED THIS AS THE EASTWARD EXTENT FOR THE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS WEAK TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW COMING ON
SHORE ACROSS WASH/OR. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE
COLD FRONT IT WILL ONLY MAKE IT THROUGH WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LIKELY RETREAT TO THE NORTHWEST AS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES MORE PREDOMINANT LATE
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING TO MONTANA BY MONDAY
MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL
DIMINISH CENTRAL AND RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST.

ON MONDAY MID LEVEL COOLING AND INCREASING MID LEVEL ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000.
WITH COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SET TO HELP BREAK THE CAP SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING
AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK TOMORROW EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW.
THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE UPPER LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...A DEEP SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...WITH A WARM
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER. AFTERNOON HEATING
ACROSS A VERY WARM AND MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY YIELD CAPE
VALUES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG. AFTERNOON CAPING DUE TO AN
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION FROM FORMING
ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WHEN MID LEVEL COOLING AND STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES VIA
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. INITIALLY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. ONCE THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE...A TRANSITION TO DAMAGING LINE SEGMENTS
(WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL) APPEARS LIKELY.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...A SECONDARY PRESSURE SURGE WILL PRODUCE
VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH PRESSURE RISES BETWEEN
15 AND 20 MB/6HOUR...AND A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...WIND GUSTS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH READINGS ON AVERAGE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS CLOUDS/IFR CIGS TO AFFECT
KBIS/KJMS TOWARD 12Z MONDAY...HOWEVER WILL GIVE THIS SOME
ADDITIONAL TIME BEFORE GOING WITH A PREDOMINATE CLOUD GROUP. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF KBIS/KJMS THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY COULD PRODUCE LOWER CLOUDS INTO THESE TERMINALS WITH A
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND. OTHERWISE...A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21Z
MONDAY THROUGH THEN END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
VCTS AND TRY TO BECOME MORE SPECIFIC WITH THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 270536
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1236 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LATEST LOCAL RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
GRANT/SIOUX/EMMONS COUNTIES. MOVEMENT ON THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE
TAKING ON MORE OF A NORTHEAST TREND...AND THIS IS SOMEWHAT
SUPPORTED IN THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP13. THUS...HAVE COORDINATED
WITH ABERDEEN WFO TO CONTINUE MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. REGIONALLY...THE NEXT AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT/LOW LEVEL JET. THE NAM/HRRR/RAP13 SUGGESTS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GRAZING OUR NORTHWEST CORNER TOWARD 12Z MONDAY. REST
OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS EXPIRED. ONLY A SMALL AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...OVER GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES. KEPT HIGHER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THERE THROUGH MIDNIGHT CDT...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EARLIER CONVECTION AXIS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LATER TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTION OVER
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO TAKE SEVERAL COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH. ALL
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES ARE NOW OUT...AND TOOK OUT SOME WESTERN
COUNTIES. THOSE REMAINING IN THE WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT INCLUDE
MCLEAN...MERCER...OLIVER...MORTON...HETTINGER...GRANT.

CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH...AND EXPECT SOUTHERN
END OF LINE TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY THIS EVENING. HAD TO ADD SOME
MENTION OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD INTO
SHERIDAN/WELLS/BURLEIGH/KIDDER...AS STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER. DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS OUTSIDE THE WATCH AREA...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR
ADAMS/SIOUX COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES FROM BOTTINEAU/ROLETTE
COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD TO BOWMAN COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
CONTINUES FOR THIS AREA AND EAST TO PIERCE/ROLETTE TO
MORTON/GRANT...BUT WILL ALLOW THE WATCH TO EXPIRE FOR SOME OF THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...NAMELY BURKE...MOUNTRAIL...MCKENZIE AND BILLINGS
COUNTIES.

LINE OF STORMS IS MAINLY ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH
HAS MOVED EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

BLENDED THE CURRENT POPS WITH THE HRRR ENSEMBLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF 2 PM CDT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INITIATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
BUFKIT 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP IN PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BIS-JMS
SO USED THIS AS THE EASTWARD EXTENT FOR THE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS WEAK TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW COMING ON
SHORE ACROSS WASH/OR. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE
COLD FRONT IT WILL ONLY MAKE IT THROUGH WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LIKELY RETREAT TO THE NORTHWEST AS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES MORE PREDOMINANT LATE
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING TO MONTANA BY MONDAY
MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL
DIMINISH CENTRAL AND RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST.

ON MONDAY MID LEVEL COOLING AND INCREASING MID LEVEL ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000.
WITH COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SET TO HELP BREAK THE CAP SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING
AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK TOMORROW EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW.
THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE UPPER LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...A DEEP SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...WITH A WARM
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER. AFTERNOON HEATING
ACROSS A VERY WARM AND MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY YIELD CAPE
VALUES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG. AFTERNOON CAPING DUE TO AN
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION FROM FORMING
ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WHEN MID LEVEL COOLING AND STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES VIA
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. INITIALLY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. ONCE THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE...A TRANSITION TO DAMAGING LINE SEGMENTS
(WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL) APPEARS LIKELY.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...A SECONDARY PRESSURE SURGE WILL PRODUCE
VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH PRESSURE RISES BETWEEN
15 AND 20 MB/6HOUR...AND A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...WIND GUSTS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH READINGS ON AVERAGE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS CLOUDS/IFR CIGS TO AFFECT
KBIS/KJMS TOWARD 12Z MONDAY...HOWEVER WILL GIVE THIS SOME
ADDITIONAL TIME BEFORE GOING WITH A PREDOMINATE CLOUD GROUP. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF KBIS/KJMS THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY COULD PRODUCE LOWER CLOUDS INTO THESE TERMINALS WITH A
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND. OTHERWISE...A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21Z
MONDAY THROUGH THEN END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
VCTS AND TRY TO BECOME MORE SPECIFIC WITH THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KFGF 270442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN WITH SUNDOWN. KEPT POPS IN THE NORTHERN DVL BSN FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

CONVECTION IN CENTRAL ND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK EAST NEAR THE
DVL BSN THIS EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST FOR A CHC OF THUNDER IN THE
DVL BSN REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE TO NO POPS ELSEWHERE...THIS
IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT HRRR AND OTHER CAMS. MIXING A LITTLE
STRONGER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT WHEN SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPED. WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

WEAK SFC LOW IN WCNTRL ND WITH A TROUGH FROM NEAR WATFORD CITY TO
MINOT TO BRANDON MANITOBA. NOT UNEXPECTEDLY CONVECTING FIRING JUST
BEHIND THE TROUGH AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SO INTO THE EVENING AS
BOUNDARY SLIDES SLOWLY EAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POP IN AREAS
JUST NORTHWEST OF DEVILS LAKE THRU MID EVENING PER 1 PM UPDATE.
SPC ADDED THIS AREA INTO A SLIGHT RISK. EASTWARD ADVANCE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY BOUNDARY.
EXPECT THE STORMS TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. HRRR HAS FOLLOWED THIS
TREND ALL DAY AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. MONDAY WILL BE UNDER THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AND DRY DURING THE DAY. SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN
WCNTRL ND MON AFTN AND LOOK FOR STRONG INSTABILITY TO BUILD IN NW
ND DURING THE AFTN JUST NORTH OF THE SFC AND NR THE WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM NW ND INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. SPC THINKING
SVR STORMS FIRING ALONG THE LOW AND WARM FRONT MID AFTN MONDAY AND
THEN OVER TIME ORGANIZING AND SPREADING EAST AS A SQUALL LINE INTO
ERN ND BUT MOST LIKELY MID TO LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SE SASK AND MANITOBA TUES-TUES NIGHT
PERIOD. COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH BEHIND THE TSTMS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY SLOT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
EAST TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED. A TAD
COOLER WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER AS UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO NW ONTARIO. SW EDGE OF SOME SHOWERS WILL IMPACT FAR NE ND/NW
MN TUES NIGHT INTO A PART OF WED WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOOK FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED DURING THIS TIME OVER THE N PLAINS. A
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PATTEN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH ONLY SOME LOW-END POPS BY THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW TO DROP OUT OF

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. WINDS GUSTING TOMORROW AFTN
AROUND 25 KTS. CONVECTION INITIATES IN WESTERN ND AND MOVES EAST
INTO THE DVL BSN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK



000
FXUS63 KFGF 270442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN WITH SUNDOWN. KEPT POPS IN THE NORTHERN DVL BSN FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

CONVECTION IN CENTRAL ND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK EAST NEAR THE
DVL BSN THIS EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST FOR A CHC OF THUNDER IN THE
DVL BSN REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE TO NO POPS ELSEWHERE...THIS
IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT HRRR AND OTHER CAMS. MIXING A LITTLE
STRONGER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT WHEN SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPED. WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

WEAK SFC LOW IN WCNTRL ND WITH A TROUGH FROM NEAR WATFORD CITY TO
MINOT TO BRANDON MANITOBA. NOT UNEXPECTEDLY CONVECTING FIRING JUST
BEHIND THE TROUGH AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SO INTO THE EVENING AS
BOUNDARY SLIDES SLOWLY EAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POP IN AREAS
JUST NORTHWEST OF DEVILS LAKE THRU MID EVENING PER 1 PM UPDATE.
SPC ADDED THIS AREA INTO A SLIGHT RISK. EASTWARD ADVANCE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY BOUNDARY.
EXPECT THE STORMS TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. HRRR HAS FOLLOWED THIS
TREND ALL DAY AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. MONDAY WILL BE UNDER THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AND DRY DURING THE DAY. SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN
WCNTRL ND MON AFTN AND LOOK FOR STRONG INSTABILITY TO BUILD IN NW
ND DURING THE AFTN JUST NORTH OF THE SFC AND NR THE WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM NW ND INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. SPC THINKING
SVR STORMS FIRING ALONG THE LOW AND WARM FRONT MID AFTN MONDAY AND
THEN OVER TIME ORGANIZING AND SPREADING EAST AS A SQUALL LINE INTO
ERN ND BUT MOST LIKELY MID TO LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SE SASK AND MANITOBA TUES-TUES NIGHT
PERIOD. COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH BEHIND THE TSTMS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY SLOT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
EAST TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED. A TAD
COOLER WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER AS UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO NW ONTARIO. SW EDGE OF SOME SHOWERS WILL IMPACT FAR NE ND/NW
MN TUES NIGHT INTO A PART OF WED WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOOK FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED DURING THIS TIME OVER THE N PLAINS. A
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PATTEN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH ONLY SOME LOW-END POPS BY THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW TO DROP OUT OF

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. WINDS GUSTING TOMORROW AFTN
AROUND 25 KTS. CONVECTION INITIATES IN WESTERN ND AND MOVES EAST
INTO THE DVL BSN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK




000
FXUS63 KBIS 270340
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1040 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS EXPIRED. ONLY A SMALL AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...OVER GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES. KEPT HIGHER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THERE THROUGH MIDNIGHT CDT...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EARLIER CONVECTION AXIS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LATER TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTION OVER
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO TAKE SEVERAL COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH. ALL
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES ARE NOW OUT...AND TOOK OUT SOME WESTERN
COUNTIES. THOSE REMAINING IN THE WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT INCLUDE
MCLEAN...MERCER...OLIVER...MORTON...HETTINGER...GRANT.

CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH...AND EXPECT SOUTHERN
END OF LINE TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY THIS EVENING. HAD TO ADD SOME
MENTION OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD INTO
SHERIDAN/WELLS/BURLEIGH/KIDDER...AS STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER. DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS OUTSIDE THE WATCH AREA...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR
ADAMS/SIOUX COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES FROM BOTTINEAU/ROLETTE
COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD TO BOWMAN COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
CONTINUES FOR THIS AREA AND EAST TO PIERCE/ROLETTE TO
MORTON/GRANT...BUT WILL ALLOW THE WATCH TO EXPIRE FOR SOME OF THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...NAMELY BURKE...MOUNTRAIL...MCKENZIE AND BILLINGS
COUNTIES.

LINE OF STORMS IS MAINLY ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH
HAS MOVED EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

BLENDED THE CURRENT POPS WITH THE HRRR ENSEMBLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF 2 PM CDT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INITIATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
BUFKIT 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP IN PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BIS-JMS
SO USED THIS AS THE EASTWARD EXTENT FOR THE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS WEAK TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW COMING ON
SHORE ACROSS WASH/OR. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE
COLD FRONT IT WILL ONLY MAKE IT THROUGH WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LIKELY RETREAT TO THE NORTHWEST AS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES MORE PREDOMINANT LATE
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING TO MONTANA BY MONDAY
MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL
DIMINISH CENTRAL AND RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST.

ON MONDAY MID LEVEL COOLING AND INCREASING MID LEVEL ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000.
WITH COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SET TO HELP BREAK THE CAP SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING
AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK TOMORROW EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW.
THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE UPPER LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...A DEEP SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...WITH A WARM
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER. AFTERNOON HEATING
ACROSS A VERY WARM AND MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY YIELD CAPE
VALUES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG. AFTERNOON CAPING DUE TO AN
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION FROM FORMING
ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WHEN MID LEVEL COOLING AND STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES VIA
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. INITIALLY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. ONCE THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE...A TRANSITION TO DAMAGING LINE SEGMENTS
(WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL) APPEARS LIKELY.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...A SECONDARY PRESSURE SURGE WILL PRODUCE
VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH PRESSURE RISES BETWEEN
15 AND 20 MB/6HOUR...AND A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...WIND GUSTS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH READINGS ON AVERAGE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

UPDATE:

CONVECTION IS NOT AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.
CHANCES INCREASE AT KISN MAINLY AFT 08Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH LOW VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KISN
AFTER 12Z. MOST STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
AFTER 21Z AT KISN/KDIK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE AND
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ARRIVE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KFGF 270232
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
932 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN WITH SUNDOWN. KEPT POPS IN THE NORTHERN DVL BSN FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

CONVECTION IN CENTRAL ND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK EAST NEAR THE
DVL BSN THIS EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST FOR A CHC OF THUNDER IN THE
DVL BSN REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE TO NO POPS ELSEWHERE...THIS
IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT HRRR AND OTHER CAMS. MIXING A LITTLE
STRONGER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT WHEN SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPED. WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

WEAK SFC LOW IN WCNTRL ND WITH A TROUGH FROM NEAR WATFORD CITY TO
MINOT TO BRANDON MANITOBA. NOT UNEXPECTEDLY CONVECTING FIRING JUST
BEHIND THE TROUGH AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SO INTO THE EVENING AS
BOUNDARY SLIDES SLOWLY EAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POP IN AREAS
JUST NORTHWEST OF DEVILS LAKE THRU MID EVENING PER 1 PM UPDATE.
SPC ADDED THIS AREA INTO A SLIGHT RISK. EASTWARD ADVANCE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY BOUNDARY.
EXPECT THE STORMS TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. HRRR HAS FOLLOWED THIS
TREND ALL DAY AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. MONDAY WILL BE UNDER THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AND DRY DURING THE DAY. SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN
WCNTRL ND MON AFTN AND LOOK FOR STRONG INSTABILITY TO BUILD IN NW
ND DURING THE AFTN JUST NORTH OF THE SFC AND NR THE WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM NW ND INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. SPC THINKING
SVR STORMS FIRING ALONG THE LOW AND WARM FRONT MID AFTN MONDAY AND
THEN OVER TIME ORGANIZING AND SPREADING EAST AS A SQUALL LINE INTO
ERN ND BUT MOST LIKELY MID TO LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SE SASK AND MANITOBA TUES-TUES NIGHT
PERIOD. COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH BEHIND THE TSTMS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY SLOT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
EAST TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED. A TAD
COOLER WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER AS UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO NW ONTARIO. SW EDGE OF SOME SHOWERS WILL IMPACT FAR NE ND/NW
MN TUES NIGHT INTO A PART OF WED WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOOK FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED DURING THIS TIME OVER THE N PLAINS. A
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PATTEN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH ONLY SOME LOW-END POPS BY THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW TO DROP OUT OF

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TSRA OR VCTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT DVL... HOWEVER VERY
UNCERTAIN...SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF AND WILL MONITOR. VFR FOR THE
PERIOD WITH SE WINDS GUSTING TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO THE
EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 270232
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
932 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN WITH SUNDOWN. KEPT POPS IN THE NORTHERN DVL BSN FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

CONVECTION IN CENTRAL ND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK EAST NEAR THE
DVL BSN THIS EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST FOR A CHC OF THUNDER IN THE
DVL BSN REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE TO NO POPS ELSEWHERE...THIS
IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT HRRR AND OTHER CAMS. MIXING A LITTLE
STRONGER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT WHEN SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPED. WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

WEAK SFC LOW IN WCNTRL ND WITH A TROUGH FROM NEAR WATFORD CITY TO
MINOT TO BRANDON MANITOBA. NOT UNEXPECTEDLY CONVECTING FIRING JUST
BEHIND THE TROUGH AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SO INTO THE EVENING AS
BOUNDARY SLIDES SLOWLY EAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POP IN AREAS
JUST NORTHWEST OF DEVILS LAKE THRU MID EVENING PER 1 PM UPDATE.
SPC ADDED THIS AREA INTO A SLIGHT RISK. EASTWARD ADVANCE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY BOUNDARY.
EXPECT THE STORMS TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. HRRR HAS FOLLOWED THIS
TREND ALL DAY AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. MONDAY WILL BE UNDER THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AND DRY DURING THE DAY. SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN
WCNTRL ND MON AFTN AND LOOK FOR STRONG INSTABILITY TO BUILD IN NW
ND DURING THE AFTN JUST NORTH OF THE SFC AND NR THE WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM NW ND INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. SPC THINKING
SVR STORMS FIRING ALONG THE LOW AND WARM FRONT MID AFTN MONDAY AND
THEN OVER TIME ORGANIZING AND SPREADING EAST AS A SQUALL LINE INTO
ERN ND BUT MOST LIKELY MID TO LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SE SASK AND MANITOBA TUES-TUES NIGHT
PERIOD. COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH BEHIND THE TSTMS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY SLOT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
EAST TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED. A TAD
COOLER WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER AS UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO NW ONTARIO. SW EDGE OF SOME SHOWERS WILL IMPACT FAR NE ND/NW
MN TUES NIGHT INTO A PART OF WED WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOOK FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED DURING THIS TIME OVER THE N PLAINS. A
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PATTEN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH ONLY SOME LOW-END POPS BY THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW TO DROP OUT OF

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TSRA OR VCTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT DVL... HOWEVER VERY
UNCERTAIN...SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF AND WILL MONITOR. VFR FOR THE
PERIOD WITH SE WINDS GUSTING TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO THE
EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK



000
FXUS63 KFGF 270232
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
932 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN WITH SUNDOWN. KEPT POPS IN THE NORTHERN DVL BSN FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

CONVECTION IN CENTRAL ND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK EAST NEAR THE
DVL BSN THIS EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST FOR A CHC OF THUNDER IN THE
DVL BSN REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE TO NO POPS ELSEWHERE...THIS
IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT HRRR AND OTHER CAMS. MIXING A LITTLE
STRONGER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT WHEN SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPED. WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

WEAK SFC LOW IN WCNTRL ND WITH A TROUGH FROM NEAR WATFORD CITY TO
MINOT TO BRANDON MANITOBA. NOT UNEXPECTEDLY CONVECTING FIRING JUST
BEHIND THE TROUGH AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SO INTO THE EVENING AS
BOUNDARY SLIDES SLOWLY EAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POP IN AREAS
JUST NORTHWEST OF DEVILS LAKE THRU MID EVENING PER 1 PM UPDATE.
SPC ADDED THIS AREA INTO A SLIGHT RISK. EASTWARD ADVANCE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY BOUNDARY.
EXPECT THE STORMS TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. HRRR HAS FOLLOWED THIS
TREND ALL DAY AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. MONDAY WILL BE UNDER THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AND DRY DURING THE DAY. SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN
WCNTRL ND MON AFTN AND LOOK FOR STRONG INSTABILITY TO BUILD IN NW
ND DURING THE AFTN JUST NORTH OF THE SFC AND NR THE WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM NW ND INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. SPC THINKING
SVR STORMS FIRING ALONG THE LOW AND WARM FRONT MID AFTN MONDAY AND
THEN OVER TIME ORGANIZING AND SPREADING EAST AS A SQUALL LINE INTO
ERN ND BUT MOST LIKELY MID TO LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SE SASK AND MANITOBA TUES-TUES NIGHT
PERIOD. COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH BEHIND THE TSTMS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY SLOT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
EAST TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED. A TAD
COOLER WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER AS UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO NW ONTARIO. SW EDGE OF SOME SHOWERS WILL IMPACT FAR NE ND/NW
MN TUES NIGHT INTO A PART OF WED WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOOK FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED DURING THIS TIME OVER THE N PLAINS. A
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PATTEN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH ONLY SOME LOW-END POPS BY THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW TO DROP OUT OF

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TSRA OR VCTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT DVL... HOWEVER VERY
UNCERTAIN...SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF AND WILL MONITOR. VFR FOR THE
PERIOD WITH SE WINDS GUSTING TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO THE
EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK



000
FXUS63 KBIS 270144
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
844 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO TAKE SEVERAL COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH. ALL
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES ARE NOW OUT...AND TOOK OUT SOME WESTERN
COUNTIES. THOSE REMAINING IN THE WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT INCLUDE
MCLEARN...MERCER...OLIVER...MORTON...HETTINGER...GRANT.

CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH...AND EXPECT SOUTHERN
END OF LINE TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY THIS EVENING. HAD TO ADD SOME
MENTION OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD INTO
SHERIDAN/WELLS/BURLEIGH/KIDDER...AS STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER. DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS OUTSIDE THE WATCH AREA...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR
ADAMS/SIOUX COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES FROM BOTTINEAU/ROLETTE
COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD TO BOWMAN COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
CONTINUES FOR THIS AREA AND EAST TO PIERCE/ROLETTE TO
MORTON/GRANT...BUT WILL ALLOW THE WATCH TO EXPIRE FOR SOME OF THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...NAMELY BURKE...MOUNTRAIL...MCKENZIE AND BILLINGS
COUNTIES.

LINE OF STORMS IS MAINLY ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH
HAS MOVED EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

BLENDED THE CURRENT POPS WITH THE HRRR ENSEMBLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF 2 PM CDT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INITIATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
BUFKIT 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP IN PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BIS-JMS
SO USED THIS AS THE EASTWARD EXTENT FOR THE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS WEAK TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW COMING ON
SHORE ACROSS WASH/OR. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE
COLD FRONT IT WILL ONLY MAKE IT THROUGH WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LIKELY RETREAT TO THE NORTHWEST AS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES MORE PREDOMINANT LATE
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING TO MONTANA BY MONDAY
MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL
DIMINISH CENTRAL AND RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST.

ON MONDAY MID LEVEL COOLING AND INCREASING MID LEVEL ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000.
WITH COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SET TO HELP BREAK THE CAP SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING
AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK TOMORROW EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW.
THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE UPPER LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...A DEEP SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...WITH A WARM
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER. AFTERNOON HEATING
ACROSS A VERY WARM AND MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY YIELD CAPE
VALUES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG. AFTERNOON CAPING DUE TO AN
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION FROM FORMING
ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WHEN MID LEVEL COOLING AND STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES VIA
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. INITIALLY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. ONCE THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE...A TRANSITION TO DAMAGING LINE SEGMENTS
(WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL) APPEARS LIKELY.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...A SECONDARY PRESSURE SURGE WILL PRODUCE
VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH PRESSURE RISES BETWEEN
15 AND 20 MB/6HOUR...AND A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...WIND GUSTS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH READINGS ON AVERAGE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR MINOT/BOTTINEAU
TO NEAR DICKINSON/GLEN ULLIN WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVE
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. KMOT AND KDIK WILL BE THE MAIN AIRPORTS
AFFECTED BY TSRA THROUGH AROUND 03Z/04Z.

THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL IMPACT KISN AFTER 08Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH
LOW VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KISN AFTER 12Z. MOST THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AFTER 21Z AT KISN/KDIK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE STATE AND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ARRIVE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KBIS 270144
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
844 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO TAKE SEVERAL COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH. ALL
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES ARE NOW OUT...AND TOOK OUT SOME WESTERN
COUNTIES. THOSE REMAINING IN THE WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT INCLUDE
MCLEARN...MERCER...OLIVER...MORTON...HETTINGER...GRANT.

CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH...AND EXPECT SOUTHERN
END OF LINE TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY THIS EVENING. HAD TO ADD SOME
MENTION OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD INTO
SHERIDAN/WELLS/BURLEIGH/KIDDER...AS STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER. DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS OUTSIDE THE WATCH AREA...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR
ADAMS/SIOUX COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES FROM BOTTINEAU/ROLETTE
COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD TO BOWMAN COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
CONTINUES FOR THIS AREA AND EAST TO PIERCE/ROLETTE TO
MORTON/GRANT...BUT WILL ALLOW THE WATCH TO EXPIRE FOR SOME OF THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...NAMELY BURKE...MOUNTRAIL...MCKENZIE AND BILLINGS
COUNTIES.

LINE OF STORMS IS MAINLY ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH
HAS MOVED EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

BLENDED THE CURRENT POPS WITH THE HRRR ENSEMBLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF 2 PM CDT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INITIATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
BUFKIT 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP IN PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BIS-JMS
SO USED THIS AS THE EASTWARD EXTENT FOR THE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS WEAK TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW COMING ON
SHORE ACROSS WASH/OR. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE
COLD FRONT IT WILL ONLY MAKE IT THROUGH WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LIKELY RETREAT TO THE NORTHWEST AS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES MORE PREDOMINANT LATE
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING TO MONTANA BY MONDAY
MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL
DIMINISH CENTRAL AND RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST.

ON MONDAY MID LEVEL COOLING AND INCREASING MID LEVEL ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000.
WITH COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SET TO HELP BREAK THE CAP SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING
AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK TOMORROW EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW.
THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE UPPER LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...A DEEP SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...WITH A WARM
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER. AFTERNOON HEATING
ACROSS A VERY WARM AND MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY YIELD CAPE
VALUES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG. AFTERNOON CAPING DUE TO AN
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION FROM FORMING
ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WHEN MID LEVEL COOLING AND STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES VIA
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. INITIALLY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. ONCE THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE...A TRANSITION TO DAMAGING LINE SEGMENTS
(WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL) APPEARS LIKELY.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...A SECONDARY PRESSURE SURGE WILL PRODUCE
VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH PRESSURE RISES BETWEEN
15 AND 20 MB/6HOUR...AND A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...WIND GUSTS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH READINGS ON AVERAGE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR MINOT/BOTTINEAU
TO NEAR DICKINSON/GLEN ULLIN WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVE
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. KMOT AND KDIK WILL BE THE MAIN AIRPORTS
AFFECTED BY TSRA THROUGH AROUND 03Z/04Z.

THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL IMPACT KISN AFTER 08Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH
LOW VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KISN AFTER 12Z. MOST THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AFTER 21Z AT KISN/KDIK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE STATE AND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ARRIVE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KBIS 270144
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
844 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO TAKE SEVERAL COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH. ALL
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES ARE NOW OUT...AND TOOK OUT SOME WESTERN
COUNTIES. THOSE REMAINING IN THE WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT INCLUDE
MCLEARN...MERCER...OLIVER...MORTON...HETTINGER...GRANT.

CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH...AND EXPECT SOUTHERN
END OF LINE TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY THIS EVENING. HAD TO ADD SOME
MENTION OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD INTO
SHERIDAN/WELLS/BURLEIGH/KIDDER...AS STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER. DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS OUTSIDE THE WATCH AREA...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR
ADAMS/SIOUX COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES FROM BOTTINEAU/ROLETTE
COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD TO BOWMAN COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
CONTINUES FOR THIS AREA AND EAST TO PIERCE/ROLETTE TO
MORTON/GRANT...BUT WILL ALLOW THE WATCH TO EXPIRE FOR SOME OF THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...NAMELY BURKE...MOUNTRAIL...MCKENZIE AND BILLINGS
COUNTIES.

LINE OF STORMS IS MAINLY ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH
HAS MOVED EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

BLENDED THE CURRENT POPS WITH THE HRRR ENSEMBLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF 2 PM CDT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INITIATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
BUFKIT 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP IN PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BIS-JMS
SO USED THIS AS THE EASTWARD EXTENT FOR THE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS WEAK TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW COMING ON
SHORE ACROSS WASH/OR. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE
COLD FRONT IT WILL ONLY MAKE IT THROUGH WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LIKELY RETREAT TO THE NORTHWEST AS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES MORE PREDOMINANT LATE
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING TO MONTANA BY MONDAY
MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL
DIMINISH CENTRAL AND RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST.

ON MONDAY MID LEVEL COOLING AND INCREASING MID LEVEL ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000.
WITH COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SET TO HELP BREAK THE CAP SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING
AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK TOMORROW EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW.
THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE UPPER LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...A DEEP SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...WITH A WARM
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER. AFTERNOON HEATING
ACROSS A VERY WARM AND MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY YIELD CAPE
VALUES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG. AFTERNOON CAPING DUE TO AN
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION FROM FORMING
ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WHEN MID LEVEL COOLING AND STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES VIA
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. INITIALLY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. ONCE THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE...A TRANSITION TO DAMAGING LINE SEGMENTS
(WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL) APPEARS LIKELY.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...A SECONDARY PRESSURE SURGE WILL PRODUCE
VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH PRESSURE RISES BETWEEN
15 AND 20 MB/6HOUR...AND A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...WIND GUSTS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH READINGS ON AVERAGE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR MINOT/BOTTINEAU
TO NEAR DICKINSON/GLEN ULLIN WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVE
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. KMOT AND KDIK WILL BE THE MAIN AIRPORTS
AFFECTED BY TSRA THROUGH AROUND 03Z/04Z.

THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL IMPACT KISN AFTER 08Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH
LOW VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KISN AFTER 12Z. MOST THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AFTER 21Z AT KISN/KDIK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE STATE AND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ARRIVE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KBIS 270144
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
844 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO TAKE SEVERAL COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH. ALL
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES ARE NOW OUT...AND TOOK OUT SOME WESTERN
COUNTIES. THOSE REMAINING IN THE WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT INCLUDE
MCLEARN...MERCER...OLIVER...MORTON...HETTINGER...GRANT.

CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH...AND EXPECT SOUTHERN
END OF LINE TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY THIS EVENING. HAD TO ADD SOME
MENTION OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD INTO
SHERIDAN/WELLS/BURLEIGH/KIDDER...AS STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER. DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS OUTSIDE THE WATCH AREA...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR
ADAMS/SIOUX COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES FROM BOTTINEAU/ROLETTE
COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD TO BOWMAN COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
CONTINUES FOR THIS AREA AND EAST TO PIERCE/ROLETTE TO
MORTON/GRANT...BUT WILL ALLOW THE WATCH TO EXPIRE FOR SOME OF THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...NAMELY BURKE...MOUNTRAIL...MCKENZIE AND BILLINGS
COUNTIES.

LINE OF STORMS IS MAINLY ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH
HAS MOVED EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

BLENDED THE CURRENT POPS WITH THE HRRR ENSEMBLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF 2 PM CDT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INITIATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
BUFKIT 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP IN PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BIS-JMS
SO USED THIS AS THE EASTWARD EXTENT FOR THE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS WEAK TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW COMING ON
SHORE ACROSS WASH/OR. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE
COLD FRONT IT WILL ONLY MAKE IT THROUGH WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LIKELY RETREAT TO THE NORTHWEST AS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES MORE PREDOMINANT LATE
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING TO MONTANA BY MONDAY
MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL
DIMINISH CENTRAL AND RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST.

ON MONDAY MID LEVEL COOLING AND INCREASING MID LEVEL ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000.
WITH COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SET TO HELP BREAK THE CAP SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING
AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK TOMORROW EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW.
THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE UPPER LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...A DEEP SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...WITH A WARM
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER. AFTERNOON HEATING
ACROSS A VERY WARM AND MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY YIELD CAPE
VALUES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG. AFTERNOON CAPING DUE TO AN
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION FROM FORMING
ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WHEN MID LEVEL COOLING AND STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES VIA
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. INITIALLY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. ONCE THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE...A TRANSITION TO DAMAGING LINE SEGMENTS
(WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL) APPEARS LIKELY.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...A SECONDARY PRESSURE SURGE WILL PRODUCE
VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH PRESSURE RISES BETWEEN
15 AND 20 MB/6HOUR...AND A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...WIND GUSTS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH READINGS ON AVERAGE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR MINOT/BOTTINEAU
TO NEAR DICKINSON/GLEN ULLIN WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVE
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. KMOT AND KDIK WILL BE THE MAIN AIRPORTS
AFFECTED BY TSRA THROUGH AROUND 03Z/04Z.

THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL IMPACT KISN AFTER 08Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH
LOW VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KISN AFTER 12Z. MOST THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AFTER 21Z AT KISN/KDIK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE STATE AND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ARRIVE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KBIS 262348
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES FROM BOTTINEAU/ROLETTE
COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD TO BOWMAN COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
CONTINUES FOR THIS AREA AND EAST TO PIERCE/ROLETTE TO
MORTON/GRANT...BUT WILL ALLOW THE WATCH TO EXPIRE FOR SOME OF THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...NAMELY BURKE...MOUNTRAIL...MCKENZIE AND BILLINGS
COUNTIES.

LINE OF STORMS IS MAINLY ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH
HAS MOVED EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

BLENDED THE CURRENT POPS WITH THE HRRR ENSEMBLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF 2 PM CDT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INITIATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
BUFKIT 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP IN PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BIS-JMS
SO USED THIS AS THE EASTWARD EXTENT FOR THE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS WEAK TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW COMING ON
SHORE ACROSS WASH/OR. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE
COLD FRONT IT WILL ONLY MAKE IT THROUGH WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LIKELY RETREAT TO THE NORTHWEST AS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES MORE PREDOMINANT LATE
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING TO MONTANA BY MONDAY
MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL
DIMINISH CENTRAL AND RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST.

ON MONDAY MID LEVEL COOLING AND INCREASING MID LEVEL ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000.
WITH COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SET TO HELP BREAK THE CAP SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING
AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK TOMORROW EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW.
THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE UPPER LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...A DEEP SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...WITH A WARM
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER. AFTERNOON HEATING
ACROSS A VERY WARM AND MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY YIELD CAPE
VALUES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG. AFTERNOON CAPING DUE TO AN
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION FROM FORMING
ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WHEN MID LEVEL COOLING AND STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES VIA
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. INITIALLY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. ONCE THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE...A TRANSITION TO DAMAGING LINE SEGMENTS
(WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL) APPEARS LIKELY.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...A SECONDARY PRESSURE SURGE WILL PRODUCE
VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH PRESSURE RISES BETWEEN
15 AND 20 MB/6HOUR...AND A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...WIND GUSTS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH READINGS ON AVERAGE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR MINOT/BOTTINEAU
TO NEAR DICKINSON/GLEN ULLIN WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVE
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. KMOT AND KDIK WILL BE THE MAIN AIRPORTS
AFFECTED BY TSRA THROUGH AROUND 03Z/04Z.

THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL IMPACT KISN AFTER 08Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH
LOW VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KISN AFTER 12Z. MOST THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AFTER 21Z AT KISN/KDIK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE STATE AND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ARRIVE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 262348
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES FROM BOTTINEAU/ROLETTE
COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD TO BOWMAN COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
CONTINUES FOR THIS AREA AND EAST TO PIERCE/ROLETTE TO
MORTON/GRANT...BUT WILL ALLOW THE WATCH TO EXPIRE FOR SOME OF THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...NAMELY BURKE...MOUNTRAIL...MCKENZIE AND BILLINGS
COUNTIES.

LINE OF STORMS IS MAINLY ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH
HAS MOVED EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

BLENDED THE CURRENT POPS WITH THE HRRR ENSEMBLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF 2 PM CDT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INITIATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
BUFKIT 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP IN PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BIS-JMS
SO USED THIS AS THE EASTWARD EXTENT FOR THE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS WEAK TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW COMING ON
SHORE ACROSS WASH/OR. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE
COLD FRONT IT WILL ONLY MAKE IT THROUGH WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LIKELY RETREAT TO THE NORTHWEST AS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES MORE PREDOMINANT LATE
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING TO MONTANA BY MONDAY
MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL
DIMINISH CENTRAL AND RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST.

ON MONDAY MID LEVEL COOLING AND INCREASING MID LEVEL ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000.
WITH COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SET TO HELP BREAK THE CAP SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING
AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK TOMORROW EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW.
THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE UPPER LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...A DEEP SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...WITH A WARM
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER. AFTERNOON HEATING
ACROSS A VERY WARM AND MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY YIELD CAPE
VALUES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG. AFTERNOON CAPING DUE TO AN
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION FROM FORMING
ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WHEN MID LEVEL COOLING AND STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES VIA
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. INITIALLY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. ONCE THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE...A TRANSITION TO DAMAGING LINE SEGMENTS
(WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL) APPEARS LIKELY.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...A SECONDARY PRESSURE SURGE WILL PRODUCE
VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH PRESSURE RISES BETWEEN
15 AND 20 MB/6HOUR...AND A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...WIND GUSTS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH READINGS ON AVERAGE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR MINOT/BOTTINEAU
TO NEAR DICKINSON/GLEN ULLIN WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVE
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. KMOT AND KDIK WILL BE THE MAIN AIRPORTS
AFFECTED BY TSRA THROUGH AROUND 03Z/04Z.

THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL IMPACT KISN AFTER 08Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH
LOW VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KISN AFTER 12Z. MOST THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AFTER 21Z AT KISN/KDIK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE STATE AND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ARRIVE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KBIS 262348
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES FROM BOTTINEAU/ROLETTE
COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD TO BOWMAN COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
CONTINUES FOR THIS AREA AND EAST TO PIERCE/ROLETTE TO
MORTON/GRANT...BUT WILL ALLOW THE WATCH TO EXPIRE FOR SOME OF THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...NAMELY BURKE...MOUNTRAIL...MCKENZIE AND BILLINGS
COUNTIES.

LINE OF STORMS IS MAINLY ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH
HAS MOVED EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

BLENDED THE CURRENT POPS WITH THE HRRR ENSEMBLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF 2 PM CDT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INITIATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
BUFKIT 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP IN PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BIS-JMS
SO USED THIS AS THE EASTWARD EXTENT FOR THE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS WEAK TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW COMING ON
SHORE ACROSS WASH/OR. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE
COLD FRONT IT WILL ONLY MAKE IT THROUGH WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LIKELY RETREAT TO THE NORTHWEST AS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES MORE PREDOMINANT LATE
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING TO MONTANA BY MONDAY
MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL
DIMINISH CENTRAL AND RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST.

ON MONDAY MID LEVEL COOLING AND INCREASING MID LEVEL ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000.
WITH COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SET TO HELP BREAK THE CAP SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING
AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK TOMORROW EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW.
THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE UPPER LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...A DEEP SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...WITH A WARM
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER. AFTERNOON HEATING
ACROSS A VERY WARM AND MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY YIELD CAPE
VALUES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG. AFTERNOON CAPING DUE TO AN
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION FROM FORMING
ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WHEN MID LEVEL COOLING AND STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES VIA
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. INITIALLY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. ONCE THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE...A TRANSITION TO DAMAGING LINE SEGMENTS
(WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL) APPEARS LIKELY.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...A SECONDARY PRESSURE SURGE WILL PRODUCE
VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH PRESSURE RISES BETWEEN
15 AND 20 MB/6HOUR...AND A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...WIND GUSTS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH READINGS ON AVERAGE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR MINOT/BOTTINEAU
TO NEAR DICKINSON/GLEN ULLIN WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVE
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. KMOT AND KDIK WILL BE THE MAIN AIRPORTS
AFFECTED BY TSRA THROUGH AROUND 03Z/04Z.

THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL IMPACT KISN AFTER 08Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH
LOW VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KISN AFTER 12Z. MOST THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AFTER 21Z AT KISN/KDIK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE STATE AND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ARRIVE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KBIS 262348
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES FROM BOTTINEAU/ROLETTE
COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD TO BOWMAN COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
CONTINUES FOR THIS AREA AND EAST TO PIERCE/ROLETTE TO
MORTON/GRANT...BUT WILL ALLOW THE WATCH TO EXPIRE FOR SOME OF THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...NAMELY BURKE...MOUNTRAIL...MCKENZIE AND BILLINGS
COUNTIES.

LINE OF STORMS IS MAINLY ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH
HAS MOVED EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

BLENDED THE CURRENT POPS WITH THE HRRR ENSEMBLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF 2 PM CDT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INITIATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
BUFKIT 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP IN PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BIS-JMS
SO USED THIS AS THE EASTWARD EXTENT FOR THE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS WEAK TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW COMING ON
SHORE ACROSS WASH/OR. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE
COLD FRONT IT WILL ONLY MAKE IT THROUGH WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LIKELY RETREAT TO THE NORTHWEST AS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES MORE PREDOMINANT LATE
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING TO MONTANA BY MONDAY
MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL
DIMINISH CENTRAL AND RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST.

ON MONDAY MID LEVEL COOLING AND INCREASING MID LEVEL ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000.
WITH COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SET TO HELP BREAK THE CAP SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING
AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK TOMORROW EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW.
THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE UPPER LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...A DEEP SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...WITH A WARM
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER. AFTERNOON HEATING
ACROSS A VERY WARM AND MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY YIELD CAPE
VALUES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG. AFTERNOON CAPING DUE TO AN
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION FROM FORMING
ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WHEN MID LEVEL COOLING AND STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES VIA
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. INITIALLY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. ONCE THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE...A TRANSITION TO DAMAGING LINE SEGMENTS
(WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL) APPEARS LIKELY.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...A SECONDARY PRESSURE SURGE WILL PRODUCE
VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH PRESSURE RISES BETWEEN
15 AND 20 MB/6HOUR...AND A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...WIND GUSTS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH READINGS ON AVERAGE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR MINOT/BOTTINEAU
TO NEAR DICKINSON/GLEN ULLIN WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVE
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. KMOT AND KDIK WILL BE THE MAIN AIRPORTS
AFFECTED BY TSRA THROUGH AROUND 03Z/04Z.

THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL IMPACT KISN AFTER 08Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH
LOW VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KISN AFTER 12Z. MOST THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AFTER 21Z AT KISN/KDIK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE STATE AND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ARRIVE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KFGF 262342
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
642 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

CONVECTION IN CENTRAL ND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK EAST NEAR THE
DVL BSN THIS EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST FOR A CHC OF THUNDER IN THE
DVL BSN REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE TO NO POPS ELSEWHERE...THIS
IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT HRRR AND OTHER CAMS. MIXING A LITTLE
STRONGER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT WHEN SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPED. WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

WEAK SFC LOW IN WCNTRL ND WITH A TROUGH FROM NEAR WATFORD CITY TO
MINOT TO BRANDON MANITOBA. NOT UNEXPECTEDLY CONVECTING FIRING JUST
BEHIND THE TROUGH AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SO INTO THE EVENING AS
BOUNDARY SLIDES SLOWLY EAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POP IN AREAS
JUST NORTHWEST OF DEVILS LAKE THRU MID EVENING PER 1 PM UPDATE.
SPC ADDED THIS AREA INTO A SLIGHT RISK. EASTWARD ADVANCE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY BOUNDARY.
EXPECT THE STORMS TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. HRRR HAS FOLLOWED THIS
TREND ALL DAY AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. MONDAY WILL BE UNDER THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AND DRY DURING THE DAY. SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN
WCNTRL ND MON AFTN AND LOOK FOR STRONG INSTABILITY TO BUILD IN NW
ND DURING THE AFTN JUST NORTH OF THE SFC AND NR THE WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM NW ND INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. SPC THINKING
SVR STORMS FIRING ALONG THE LOW AND WARM FRONT MID AFTN MONDAY AND
THEN OVER TIME ORGANIZING AND SPREADING EAST AS A SQUALL LINE INTO
ERN ND BUT MOST LIKELY MID TO LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SE SASK AND MANITOBA TUES-TUES NIGHT
PERIOD. COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH BEHIND THE TSTMS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY SLOT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
EAST TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED. A TAD
COOLER WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER AS UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO NW ONTARIO. SW EDGE OF SOME SHOWERS WILL IMPACT FAR NE ND/NW
MN TUES NIGHT INTO A PART OF WED WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOOK FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED DURING THIS TIME OVER THE N PLAINS. A
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PATTEN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH ONLY SOME LOW-END POPS BY THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW TO DROP OUT OF

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TSRA OR VCTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT DVL... HOWEVER VERY
UNCERTAIN...SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF AND WILL MONITOR. VFR FOR THE
PERIOD WITH SE WINDS GUSTING TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO THE
EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 262342
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
642 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

CONVECTION IN CENTRAL ND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK EAST NEAR THE
DVL BSN THIS EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST FOR A CHC OF THUNDER IN THE
DVL BSN REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE TO NO POPS ELSEWHERE...THIS
IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT HRRR AND OTHER CAMS. MIXING A LITTLE
STRONGER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT WHEN SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPED. WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

WEAK SFC LOW IN WCNTRL ND WITH A TROUGH FROM NEAR WATFORD CITY TO
MINOT TO BRANDON MANITOBA. NOT UNEXPECTEDLY CONVECTING FIRING JUST
BEHIND THE TROUGH AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SO INTO THE EVENING AS
BOUNDARY SLIDES SLOWLY EAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POP IN AREAS
JUST NORTHWEST OF DEVILS LAKE THRU MID EVENING PER 1 PM UPDATE.
SPC ADDED THIS AREA INTO A SLIGHT RISK. EASTWARD ADVANCE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY BOUNDARY.
EXPECT THE STORMS TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. HRRR HAS FOLLOWED THIS
TREND ALL DAY AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. MONDAY WILL BE UNDER THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AND DRY DURING THE DAY. SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN
WCNTRL ND MON AFTN AND LOOK FOR STRONG INSTABILITY TO BUILD IN NW
ND DURING THE AFTN JUST NORTH OF THE SFC AND NR THE WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM NW ND INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. SPC THINKING
SVR STORMS FIRING ALONG THE LOW AND WARM FRONT MID AFTN MONDAY AND
THEN OVER TIME ORGANIZING AND SPREADING EAST AS A SQUALL LINE INTO
ERN ND BUT MOST LIKELY MID TO LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SE SASK AND MANITOBA TUES-TUES NIGHT
PERIOD. COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH BEHIND THE TSTMS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY SLOT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
EAST TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED. A TAD
COOLER WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER AS UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO NW ONTARIO. SW EDGE OF SOME SHOWERS WILL IMPACT FAR NE ND/NW
MN TUES NIGHT INTO A PART OF WED WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOOK FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED DURING THIS TIME OVER THE N PLAINS. A
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PATTEN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH ONLY SOME LOW-END POPS BY THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW TO DROP OUT OF

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TSRA OR VCTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT DVL... HOWEVER VERY
UNCERTAIN...SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF AND WILL MONITOR. VFR FOR THE
PERIOD WITH SE WINDS GUSTING TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO THE
EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities