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000
FXUS63 KBIS 240522
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1222 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THIS
UPDATE.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS STILL WELL SOUTH IN
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. LATEST HIGH-RES DATA (WRF/RAP) INDICATES
ONLY LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY PUSHING IN DURING
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES. THE AREA
OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST HAS LIFTED INTO MORE STABLE AIR AND
HAS DISSIPATED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. DID PUSH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...OTHERWISE MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS NORTH. ALSO HELD BACK ON THE LIKELY POPS COMING INTO
THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY...LIMITING THEM TO MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER IN THE MORNING AND BRINGING THEM NORTH TO AROUND THE
I-94 CORRIDOR AFTER 18Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A BAND OF SHOWERS IS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE NOTHING MORE THAN POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD. DID
MENTION SOME HIGH POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BAND LIFTING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THIS EVENING...THEN SOME CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID KEEP SOME LIKELY POPS FOR NOW ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER AFTER 09Z. WILL MONITOR THOUGH THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE
OF RAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS INDICATE YET MORE DELAY IN TIMING OF THE
ONSET OF RAIN MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER COLORADO.

THE GFS MODEL REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE...ALREADY INDICATING THAT RAIN
SHOULD BE ADVANCING NORTH TOWARDS I-94. THIS MODEL WAS DISCOUNTED
FOR TODAY`S FORECAST. INSTEAD USED A BLEND OF THE NAM...ECMWF...HRRR
AND CANADIAN MODELS IN DETERMINING CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION ADVANCEMENT
NORTHWARD. LOW CLOUDS REMAINED STEADY BROKEN/OVERCAST AT HETTINGER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OVERCAST SKIES REACHING DICKINSON AND NEARLY
AT BISMARCK. RADAR RETURNS FROM THE BOWMAN RADAR HAVE BEEN
INCREASING WITH INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
NOTED THAT BISON SD RECEIVED 0.01 OF RAIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THUS PRECIPITATION IS NOW FINALLY REACHING THE GROUND.
EXPECT THAT THE BOWMAN AREA IS SEEING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST SHOULD BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING...AND THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOULD
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME. THE MODELS WERE KEYING IN ON
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE TONIGHT...
MAINLY OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND WYOMING...WITH MORE
OF THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE REMAINING FARTHER WEST OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF NORTH DAKOTA. HELD OFF WITH HIGHER PRECIP
CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE JAMES VALLEY UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE STATE IS LIKELY TO SEE RAIN...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FARTHER NORTH WITH TIME...BUT THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL HAVE LESS THAN 50 PERCENT
CHANCES OF RAIN. SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY INCREASES
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH BETTER FORCING AND CAPE. WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY MORNING...AND FOR THE CHANCE
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH IN
THE AFTERNOON.

EXPECTING ONLY A TENTH OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT SOUTHWEST.
EXPECTING 0.25 TO 0.50 SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH 0.20 TO 0.40 OVER THE
REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

LOWS TONIGHT FROM 45 TO 50 MOST AREAS IN CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SUNDAY
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SOUTH...AND UPPER 60S TO 70 NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RELIED MORE ON
THE ECMWF VERSUS THE GFS BEFORE THE SUPERBLEND TOOK OVER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY OVER-
FORECASTING AREAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED AMOUNTS. PER
ECMWF...A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM FROM THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY LIFT FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING SUNDAY NIGHT TO
EASTERN MINNESOTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...FAVORING CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH LESSER CHANCES IN THE NORTH. FOR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ALMOST ON A DAILY BASIS. THE DAYS WITH THE LOWEST
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AND HENCE MOSTLY A DRY FORECAST
RESIDE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...AND  ON
SATURDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FAVOR HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MOVING IN SUNDAY
EVENING. MVFR...AND MAYBE IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER RAIN...ARE
LIKELY AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS EVENING. KEPT THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KBIS 240522
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1222 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THIS
UPDATE.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS STILL WELL SOUTH IN
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. LATEST HIGH-RES DATA (WRF/RAP) INDICATES
ONLY LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY PUSHING IN DURING
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES. THE AREA
OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST HAS LIFTED INTO MORE STABLE AIR AND
HAS DISSIPATED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. DID PUSH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...OTHERWISE MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS NORTH. ALSO HELD BACK ON THE LIKELY POPS COMING INTO
THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY...LIMITING THEM TO MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER IN THE MORNING AND BRINGING THEM NORTH TO AROUND THE
I-94 CORRIDOR AFTER 18Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A BAND OF SHOWERS IS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE NOTHING MORE THAN POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD. DID
MENTION SOME HIGH POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BAND LIFTING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THIS EVENING...THEN SOME CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID KEEP SOME LIKELY POPS FOR NOW ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER AFTER 09Z. WILL MONITOR THOUGH THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE
OF RAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS INDICATE YET MORE DELAY IN TIMING OF THE
ONSET OF RAIN MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER COLORADO.

THE GFS MODEL REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE...ALREADY INDICATING THAT RAIN
SHOULD BE ADVANCING NORTH TOWARDS I-94. THIS MODEL WAS DISCOUNTED
FOR TODAY`S FORECAST. INSTEAD USED A BLEND OF THE NAM...ECMWF...HRRR
AND CANADIAN MODELS IN DETERMINING CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION ADVANCEMENT
NORTHWARD. LOW CLOUDS REMAINED STEADY BROKEN/OVERCAST AT HETTINGER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OVERCAST SKIES REACHING DICKINSON AND NEARLY
AT BISMARCK. RADAR RETURNS FROM THE BOWMAN RADAR HAVE BEEN
INCREASING WITH INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
NOTED THAT BISON SD RECEIVED 0.01 OF RAIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THUS PRECIPITATION IS NOW FINALLY REACHING THE GROUND.
EXPECT THAT THE BOWMAN AREA IS SEEING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST SHOULD BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING...AND THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOULD
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME. THE MODELS WERE KEYING IN ON
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE TONIGHT...
MAINLY OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND WYOMING...WITH MORE
OF THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE REMAINING FARTHER WEST OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF NORTH DAKOTA. HELD OFF WITH HIGHER PRECIP
CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE JAMES VALLEY UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE STATE IS LIKELY TO SEE RAIN...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FARTHER NORTH WITH TIME...BUT THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL HAVE LESS THAN 50 PERCENT
CHANCES OF RAIN. SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY INCREASES
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH BETTER FORCING AND CAPE. WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY MORNING...AND FOR THE CHANCE
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH IN
THE AFTERNOON.

EXPECTING ONLY A TENTH OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT SOUTHWEST.
EXPECTING 0.25 TO 0.50 SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH 0.20 TO 0.40 OVER THE
REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

LOWS TONIGHT FROM 45 TO 50 MOST AREAS IN CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SUNDAY
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SOUTH...AND UPPER 60S TO 70 NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RELIED MORE ON
THE ECMWF VERSUS THE GFS BEFORE THE SUPERBLEND TOOK OVER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY OVER-
FORECASTING AREAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED AMOUNTS. PER
ECMWF...A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM FROM THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY LIFT FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING SUNDAY NIGHT TO
EASTERN MINNESOTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...FAVORING CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH LESSER CHANCES IN THE NORTH. FOR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ALMOST ON A DAILY BASIS. THE DAYS WITH THE LOWEST
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AND HENCE MOSTLY A DRY FORECAST
RESIDE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...AND  ON
SATURDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FAVOR HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MOVING IN SUNDAY
EVENING. MVFR...AND MAYBE IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER RAIN...ARE
LIKELY AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS EVENING. KEPT THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KFGF 240439
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

NO CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ADJUSTED THE CLOUDS A BIT MORE AS CIRRUS AND EVEN SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUDS TO FIT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
BUT NO CHANGES OTHERWISE TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN TREND IS SLOWER...AND MODIFIED THE POP/WX FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH (EXCEPT POSSIBLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER). UPPER RIDGING HANGS ON INTO SUNDAY
(EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT) WHICH WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT. DID KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-94...BUT EVEN THIS MIGHT BE OVERKILL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MONDAY-TUESDAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE ROCKIES UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE
WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPING. THE NAM/SREF INDICATE MORE INTERACTION WITH THE
ROCKIES UPPER LOW THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. THIS WILL AFFECT LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS. AT ANY RATE...ANTICIPATE A HEAVIER
DEFORMATION RAIN BAND TO SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FA (NAM/SREF
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF/GFS). WITH PWATS 1.25 TO 1.50
INCHES AND STRONG FORCING...OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST AN AREA OF 1-2 INCHES RAINFALL...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES (MUCH LIKE LAST WEEKEND). WE HAVE
HAD A WEEK TO DRY OUT...AND THIS RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER A
12-24 HOUR DURATION...SO AREAL FLOODING ONLY A MINOR CONCERN.

DRIER ON TUESDAY...WITH POSSIBLE WEAK AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...REGION WILL BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CANADA. INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
S MB INTO ONTARIO WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH. AIRMASS MODESTLY WARM AND
UNSTABLE SOUTH OF BOUNDARY SO LOW POPS SEEM REASONABLE. MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WESTERN TROUGH
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MIDWEEK WITH THE FAVORED PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA. SURFACE HIGH
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL SHUNT MAIN PCPN CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE FA TOWARDS END OF WORK WEEK BUT WILL ALSO BRING COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY WILL RANGE ABOVE AVERAGE
DROPPING TO AT OR BLO AVERAGES BY END WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THINK SOME LOWER CIGS OF AROUND 5000 FT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE KFAR AREA BY MORNING...AND THE TAF SITES FURTHER NORTH BY
AFTERNOON BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. THERE HAS BEEN A SLOWING
TREND FOR PRECIP MOVING IN...SO DID NOT START ANY VCSH AT KFAR
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT
OF THE EAST AT AROUND 8 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR



000
FXUS63 KFGF 240439
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

NO CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ADJUSTED THE CLOUDS A BIT MORE AS CIRRUS AND EVEN SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUDS TO FIT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
BUT NO CHANGES OTHERWISE TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN TREND IS SLOWER...AND MODIFIED THE POP/WX FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH (EXCEPT POSSIBLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER). UPPER RIDGING HANGS ON INTO SUNDAY
(EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT) WHICH WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT. DID KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-94...BUT EVEN THIS MIGHT BE OVERKILL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MONDAY-TUESDAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE ROCKIES UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE
WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPING. THE NAM/SREF INDICATE MORE INTERACTION WITH THE
ROCKIES UPPER LOW THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. THIS WILL AFFECT LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS. AT ANY RATE...ANTICIPATE A HEAVIER
DEFORMATION RAIN BAND TO SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FA (NAM/SREF
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF/GFS). WITH PWATS 1.25 TO 1.50
INCHES AND STRONG FORCING...OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST AN AREA OF 1-2 INCHES RAINFALL...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES (MUCH LIKE LAST WEEKEND). WE HAVE
HAD A WEEK TO DRY OUT...AND THIS RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER A
12-24 HOUR DURATION...SO AREAL FLOODING ONLY A MINOR CONCERN.

DRIER ON TUESDAY...WITH POSSIBLE WEAK AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...REGION WILL BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CANADA. INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
S MB INTO ONTARIO WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH. AIRMASS MODESTLY WARM AND
UNSTABLE SOUTH OF BOUNDARY SO LOW POPS SEEM REASONABLE. MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WESTERN TROUGH
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MIDWEEK WITH THE FAVORED PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA. SURFACE HIGH
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL SHUNT MAIN PCPN CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE FA TOWARDS END OF WORK WEEK BUT WILL ALSO BRING COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY WILL RANGE ABOVE AVERAGE
DROPPING TO AT OR BLO AVERAGES BY END WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THINK SOME LOWER CIGS OF AROUND 5000 FT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE KFAR AREA BY MORNING...AND THE TAF SITES FURTHER NORTH BY
AFTERNOON BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. THERE HAS BEEN A SLOWING
TREND FOR PRECIP MOVING IN...SO DID NOT START ANY VCSH AT KFAR
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT
OF THE EAST AT AROUND 8 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KBIS 240245
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
945 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES. THE AREA
OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST HAS LIFTED INTO MORE STABLE AIR AND
HAS DISSIPATED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. DID PUSH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...OTHERWISE MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS NORTH. ALSO HELD BACK ON THE LIKELY POPS COMING INTO
THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY...LIMITING THEM TO MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER IN THE MORNING AND BRINGING THEM NORTH TO AROUND THE
I-94 CORRIDOR AFTER 18Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A BAND OF SHOWERS IS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE NOTHING MORE THAN POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD. DID
MENTION SOME HIGH POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BAND LIFTING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THIS EVENING...THEN SOME CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID KEEP SOME LIKELY POPS FOR NOW ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER AFTER 09Z. WILL MONITOR THOUGH THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE
OF RAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS INDICATE YET MORE DELAY IN TIMING OF THE
ONSET OF RAIN MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER COLORADO.

THE GFS MODEL REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE...ALREADY INDICATING THAT RAIN
SHOULD BE ADVANCING NORTH TOWARDS I-94. THIS MODEL WAS DISCOUNTED
FOR TODAY`S FORECAST. INSTEAD USED A BLEND OF THE NAM...ECMWF...HRRR
AND CANADIAN MODELS IN DETERMINING CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION ADVANCEMENT
NORTHWARD. LOW CLOUDS REMAINED STEADY BROKEN/OVERCAST AT HETTINGER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OVERCAST SKIES REACHING DICKINSON AND NEARLY
AT BISMARCK. RADAR RETURNS FROM THE BOWMAN RADAR HAVE BEEN
INCREASING WITH INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
NOTED THAT BISON SD RECEIVED 0.01 OF RAIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THUS PRECIPITATION IS NOW FINALLY REACHING THE GROUND.
EXPECT THAT THE BOWMAN AREA IS SEEING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST SHOULD BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING...AND THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOULD
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME. THE MODELS WERE KEYING IN ON
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE TONIGHT...
MAINLY OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND WYOMING...WITH MORE
OF THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE REMAINING FARTHER WEST OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF NORTH DAKOTA. HELD OFF WITH HIGHER PRECIP
CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE JAMES VALLEY UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE STATE IS LIKELY TO SEE RAIN...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FARTHER NORTH WITH TIME...BUT THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL HAVE LESS THAN 50 PERCENT
CHANCES OF RAIN. SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY INCREASES
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH BETTER FORCING AND CAPE. WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY MORNING...AND FOR THE CHANCE
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH IN
THE AFTERNOON.

EXPECTING ONLY A TENTH OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT SOUTHWEST.
EXPECTING 0.25 TO 0.50 SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH 0.20 TO 0.40 OVER THE
REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

LOWS TONIGHT FROM 45 TO 50 MOST AREAS IN CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SUNDAY
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SOUTH...AND UPPER 60S TO 70 NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RELIED MORE ON
THE ECMWF VERSUS THE GFS BEFORE THE SUPERBLEND TOOK OVER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY OVER-
FORECASTING AREAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED AMOUNTS. PER
ECMWF...A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM FROM THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY LIFT FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING SUNDAY NIGHT TO
EASTERN MINNESOTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...FAVORING CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH LESSER CHANCES IN THE NORTH. FOR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ALMOST ON A DAILY BASIS. THE DAYS WITH THE LOWEST
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AND HENCE MOSTLY A DRY FORECAST
RESIDE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...AND  ON
SATURDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FAVOR HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES BY SUNDAY. EXPECT
MAINLY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MOVING IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT MVFR
CEILINGS INTO KDIK AROUND 12Z...KBIS AROUND 16Z AND KJMS AROUND
21Z. KEPT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
HINTS AT LIFR CONDITIONS AT KDIK BEGINNING 08-12Z. WILL HOLD OFF
ON THE LIFR FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 240245
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
945 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES. THE AREA
OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST HAS LIFTED INTO MORE STABLE AIR AND
HAS DISSIPATED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. DID PUSH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...OTHERWISE MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS NORTH. ALSO HELD BACK ON THE LIKELY POPS COMING INTO
THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY...LIMITING THEM TO MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER IN THE MORNING AND BRINGING THEM NORTH TO AROUND THE
I-94 CORRIDOR AFTER 18Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A BAND OF SHOWERS IS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE NOTHING MORE THAN POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD. DID
MENTION SOME HIGH POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BAND LIFTING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THIS EVENING...THEN SOME CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID KEEP SOME LIKELY POPS FOR NOW ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER AFTER 09Z. WILL MONITOR THOUGH THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE
OF RAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS INDICATE YET MORE DELAY IN TIMING OF THE
ONSET OF RAIN MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER COLORADO.

THE GFS MODEL REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE...ALREADY INDICATING THAT RAIN
SHOULD BE ADVANCING NORTH TOWARDS I-94. THIS MODEL WAS DISCOUNTED
FOR TODAY`S FORECAST. INSTEAD USED A BLEND OF THE NAM...ECMWF...HRRR
AND CANADIAN MODELS IN DETERMINING CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION ADVANCEMENT
NORTHWARD. LOW CLOUDS REMAINED STEADY BROKEN/OVERCAST AT HETTINGER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OVERCAST SKIES REACHING DICKINSON AND NEARLY
AT BISMARCK. RADAR RETURNS FROM THE BOWMAN RADAR HAVE BEEN
INCREASING WITH INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
NOTED THAT BISON SD RECEIVED 0.01 OF RAIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THUS PRECIPITATION IS NOW FINALLY REACHING THE GROUND.
EXPECT THAT THE BOWMAN AREA IS SEEING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST SHOULD BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING...AND THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOULD
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME. THE MODELS WERE KEYING IN ON
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE TONIGHT...
MAINLY OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND WYOMING...WITH MORE
OF THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE REMAINING FARTHER WEST OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF NORTH DAKOTA. HELD OFF WITH HIGHER PRECIP
CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE JAMES VALLEY UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE STATE IS LIKELY TO SEE RAIN...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FARTHER NORTH WITH TIME...BUT THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL HAVE LESS THAN 50 PERCENT
CHANCES OF RAIN. SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY INCREASES
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH BETTER FORCING AND CAPE. WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY MORNING...AND FOR THE CHANCE
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH IN
THE AFTERNOON.

EXPECTING ONLY A TENTH OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT SOUTHWEST.
EXPECTING 0.25 TO 0.50 SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH 0.20 TO 0.40 OVER THE
REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

LOWS TONIGHT FROM 45 TO 50 MOST AREAS IN CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SUNDAY
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SOUTH...AND UPPER 60S TO 70 NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RELIED MORE ON
THE ECMWF VERSUS THE GFS BEFORE THE SUPERBLEND TOOK OVER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY OVER-
FORECASTING AREAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED AMOUNTS. PER
ECMWF...A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM FROM THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY LIFT FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING SUNDAY NIGHT TO
EASTERN MINNESOTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...FAVORING CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH LESSER CHANCES IN THE NORTH. FOR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ALMOST ON A DAILY BASIS. THE DAYS WITH THE LOWEST
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AND HENCE MOSTLY A DRY FORECAST
RESIDE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...AND  ON
SATURDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FAVOR HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES BY SUNDAY. EXPECT
MAINLY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MOVING IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT MVFR
CEILINGS INTO KDIK AROUND 12Z...KBIS AROUND 16Z AND KJMS AROUND
21Z. KEPT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
HINTS AT LIFR CONDITIONS AT KDIK BEGINNING 08-12Z. WILL HOLD OFF
ON THE LIFR FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KFGF 240243
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
943 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ADJUSTED THE CLOUDS A BIT MORE AS CIRRUS AND EVEN SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUDS TO FIT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
BUT NO CHANGES OTHERWISE TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN TREND IS SLOWER...AND MODIFIED THE POP/WX FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH (EXCEPT POSSIBLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER). UPPER RIDGING HANGS ON INTO SUNDAY
(EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT) WHICH WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT. DID KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-94...BUT EVEN THIS MIGHT BE OVERKILL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MONDAY-TUESDAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE ROCKIES UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE
WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPING. THE NAM/SREF INDICATE MORE INTERACTION WITH THE
ROCKIES UPPER LOW THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. THIS WILL AFFECT LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS. AT ANY RATE...ANTICIPATE A HEAVIER
DEFORMATION RAIN BAND TO SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FA (NAM/SREF
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF/GFS). WITH PWATS 1.25 TO 1.50
INCHES AND STRONG FORCING...OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST AN AREA OF 1-2 INCHES RAINFALL...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES (MUCH LIKE LAST WEEKEND). WE HAVE
HAD A WEEK TO DRY OUT...AND THIS RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER A
12-24 HOUR DURATION...SO AREAL FLOODING ONLY A MINOR CONCERN.

DRIER ON TUESDAY...WITH POSSIBLE WEAK AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...REGION WILL BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CANADA. INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
S MB INTO ONTARIO WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH. AIRMASS MODESTLY WARM AND
UNSTABLE SOUTH OF BOUNDARY SO LOW POPS SEEM REASONABLE. MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WESTERN TROUGH
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MIDWEEK WITH THE FAVORED PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA. SURFACE HIGH
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL SHUNT MAIN PCPN CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE FA TOWARDS END OF WORK WEEK BUT WILL ALSO BRING COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY WILL RANGE ABOVE AVERAGE
DROPPING TO AT OR BLO AVERAGES BY END WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN AND CU OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA
SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME LOWER CLOUDS WILL
START MOVING INTO THE KFAR AREA BY MORNING AND THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES BY AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH CIGS NEAR
5000 FT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND THEN
STEADY OUT OF THE EAST BY TOMORROW AT AROUND 8 TO 10 KTS


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR



000
FXUS63 KFGF 240243
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
943 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ADJUSTED THE CLOUDS A BIT MORE AS CIRRUS AND EVEN SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUDS TO FIT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
BUT NO CHANGES OTHERWISE TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN TREND IS SLOWER...AND MODIFIED THE POP/WX FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH (EXCEPT POSSIBLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER). UPPER RIDGING HANGS ON INTO SUNDAY
(EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT) WHICH WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT. DID KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-94...BUT EVEN THIS MIGHT BE OVERKILL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MONDAY-TUESDAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE ROCKIES UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE
WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPING. THE NAM/SREF INDICATE MORE INTERACTION WITH THE
ROCKIES UPPER LOW THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. THIS WILL AFFECT LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS. AT ANY RATE...ANTICIPATE A HEAVIER
DEFORMATION RAIN BAND TO SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FA (NAM/SREF
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF/GFS). WITH PWATS 1.25 TO 1.50
INCHES AND STRONG FORCING...OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST AN AREA OF 1-2 INCHES RAINFALL...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES (MUCH LIKE LAST WEEKEND). WE HAVE
HAD A WEEK TO DRY OUT...AND THIS RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER A
12-24 HOUR DURATION...SO AREAL FLOODING ONLY A MINOR CONCERN.

DRIER ON TUESDAY...WITH POSSIBLE WEAK AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...REGION WILL BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CANADA. INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
S MB INTO ONTARIO WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH. AIRMASS MODESTLY WARM AND
UNSTABLE SOUTH OF BOUNDARY SO LOW POPS SEEM REASONABLE. MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WESTERN TROUGH
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MIDWEEK WITH THE FAVORED PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA. SURFACE HIGH
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL SHUNT MAIN PCPN CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE FA TOWARDS END OF WORK WEEK BUT WILL ALSO BRING COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY WILL RANGE ABOVE AVERAGE
DROPPING TO AT OR BLO AVERAGES BY END WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN AND CU OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA
SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME LOWER CLOUDS WILL
START MOVING INTO THE KFAR AREA BY MORNING AND THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES BY AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH CIGS NEAR
5000 FT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND THEN
STEADY OUT OF THE EAST BY TOMORROW AT AROUND 8 TO 10 KTS


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KBIS 232351
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
651 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A BAND OF SHOWERS IS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE NOTHING MORE THAN POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD. DID
MENTION SOME HIGH POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BAND LIFTING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THIS EVENING...THEN SOME CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID KEEP SOME LIKELY POPS FOR NOW ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER AFTER 09Z. WILL MONITOR THOUGH THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE
OF RAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS INDICATE YET MORE DELAY IN TIMING OF THE
ONSET OF RAIN MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER COLORADO.

THE GFS MODEL REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE...ALREADY INDICATING THAT RAIN
SHOULD BE ADVANCING NORTH TOWARDS I-94. THIS MODEL WAS DISCOUNTED
FOR TODAY`S FORECAST. INSTEAD USED A BLEND OF THE NAM...ECMWF...HRRR
AND CANADIAN MODELS IN DETERMINING CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION ADVANCEMENT
NORTHWARD. LOW CLOUDS REMAINED STEADY BROKEN/OVERCAST AT HETTINGER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OVERCAST SKIES REACHING DICKINSON AND NEARLY
AT BISMARCK. RADAR RETURNS FROM THE BOWMAN RADAR HAVE BEEN
INCREASING WITH INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
NOTED THAT BISON SD RECEIVED 0.01 OF RAIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THUS PRECIPITATION IS NOW FINALLY REACHING THE GROUND.
EXPECT THAT THE BOWMAN AREA IS SEEING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST SHOULD BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING...AND THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOULD
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME. THE MODELS WERE KEYING IN ON
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE TONIGHT...
MAINLY OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND WYOMING...WITH MORE
OF THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE REMAINING FARTHER WEST OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF NORTH DAKOTA. HELD OFF WITH HIGHER PRECIP
CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE JAMES VALLEY UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE STATE IS LIKELY TO SEE RAIN...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FARTHER NORTH WITH TIME...BUT THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL HAVE LESS THAN 50 PERCENT
CHANCES OF RAIN. SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY INCREASES
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH BETTER FORCING AND CAPE. WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY MORNING...AND FOR THE CHANCE
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH IN
THE AFTERNOON.

EXPECTING ONLY A TENTH OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT SOUTHWEST.
EXPECTING 0.25 TO 0.50 SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH 0.20 TO 0.40 OVER THE
REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

LOWS TONIGHT FROM 45 TO 50 MOST AREAS IN CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SUNDAY
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SOUTH...AND UPPER 60S TO 70 NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RELIED MORE ON
THE ECMWF VERSUS THE GFS BEFORE THE SUPERBLEND TOOK OVER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY OVER-
FORECASTING AREAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED AMOUNTS. PER
ECMWF...A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM FROM THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY LIFT FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING SUNDAY NIGHT TO
EASTERN MINNESOTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...FAVORING CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH LESSER CHANCES IN THE NORTH. FOR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ALMOST ON A DAILY BASIS. THE DAYS WITH THE LOWEST
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AND HENCE MOSTLY A DRY FORECAST
RESIDE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...AND  ON
SATURDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FAVOR HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES BY SUNDAY. EXPECT
MAINLY SCATTERED PRECIPITATON SUNDAY MORNING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS
INTO KDIK AROUND 12Z...KBIS AROUND 16Z AND KJMS AROUND 21Z. KEPT
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HINTS AT LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KDIK BEGINNING 08-12Z. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE LIFR FOR
NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 232351
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
651 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A BAND OF SHOWERS IS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE NOTHING MORE THAN POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD. DID
MENTION SOME HIGH POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BAND LIFTING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THIS EVENING...THEN SOME CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID KEEP SOME LIKELY POPS FOR NOW ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER AFTER 09Z. WILL MONITOR THOUGH THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE
OF RAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS INDICATE YET MORE DELAY IN TIMING OF THE
ONSET OF RAIN MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER COLORADO.

THE GFS MODEL REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE...ALREADY INDICATING THAT RAIN
SHOULD BE ADVANCING NORTH TOWARDS I-94. THIS MODEL WAS DISCOUNTED
FOR TODAY`S FORECAST. INSTEAD USED A BLEND OF THE NAM...ECMWF...HRRR
AND CANADIAN MODELS IN DETERMINING CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION ADVANCEMENT
NORTHWARD. LOW CLOUDS REMAINED STEADY BROKEN/OVERCAST AT HETTINGER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OVERCAST SKIES REACHING DICKINSON AND NEARLY
AT BISMARCK. RADAR RETURNS FROM THE BOWMAN RADAR HAVE BEEN
INCREASING WITH INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
NOTED THAT BISON SD RECEIVED 0.01 OF RAIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THUS PRECIPITATION IS NOW FINALLY REACHING THE GROUND.
EXPECT THAT THE BOWMAN AREA IS SEEING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST SHOULD BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING...AND THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOULD
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME. THE MODELS WERE KEYING IN ON
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE TONIGHT...
MAINLY OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND WYOMING...WITH MORE
OF THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE REMAINING FARTHER WEST OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF NORTH DAKOTA. HELD OFF WITH HIGHER PRECIP
CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE JAMES VALLEY UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE STATE IS LIKELY TO SEE RAIN...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FARTHER NORTH WITH TIME...BUT THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL HAVE LESS THAN 50 PERCENT
CHANCES OF RAIN. SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY INCREASES
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH BETTER FORCING AND CAPE. WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY MORNING...AND FOR THE CHANCE
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH IN
THE AFTERNOON.

EXPECTING ONLY A TENTH OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT SOUTHWEST.
EXPECTING 0.25 TO 0.50 SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH 0.20 TO 0.40 OVER THE
REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

LOWS TONIGHT FROM 45 TO 50 MOST AREAS IN CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SUNDAY
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SOUTH...AND UPPER 60S TO 70 NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RELIED MORE ON
THE ECMWF VERSUS THE GFS BEFORE THE SUPERBLEND TOOK OVER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY OVER-
FORECASTING AREAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED AMOUNTS. PER
ECMWF...A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM FROM THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY LIFT FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING SUNDAY NIGHT TO
EASTERN MINNESOTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...FAVORING CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH LESSER CHANCES IN THE NORTH. FOR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ALMOST ON A DAILY BASIS. THE DAYS WITH THE LOWEST
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AND HENCE MOSTLY A DRY FORECAST
RESIDE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...AND  ON
SATURDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FAVOR HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES BY SUNDAY. EXPECT
MAINLY SCATTERED PRECIPITATON SUNDAY MORNING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS
INTO KDIK AROUND 12Z...KBIS AROUND 16Z AND KJMS AROUND 21Z. KEPT
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HINTS AT LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KDIK BEGINNING 08-12Z. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE LIFR FOR
NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 232351
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
651 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A BAND OF SHOWERS IS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE NOTHING MORE THAN POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD. DID
MENTION SOME HIGH POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BAND LIFTING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THIS EVENING...THEN SOME CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID KEEP SOME LIKELY POPS FOR NOW ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER AFTER 09Z. WILL MONITOR THOUGH THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE
OF RAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS INDICATE YET MORE DELAY IN TIMING OF THE
ONSET OF RAIN MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER COLORADO.

THE GFS MODEL REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE...ALREADY INDICATING THAT RAIN
SHOULD BE ADVANCING NORTH TOWARDS I-94. THIS MODEL WAS DISCOUNTED
FOR TODAY`S FORECAST. INSTEAD USED A BLEND OF THE NAM...ECMWF...HRRR
AND CANADIAN MODELS IN DETERMINING CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION ADVANCEMENT
NORTHWARD. LOW CLOUDS REMAINED STEADY BROKEN/OVERCAST AT HETTINGER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OVERCAST SKIES REACHING DICKINSON AND NEARLY
AT BISMARCK. RADAR RETURNS FROM THE BOWMAN RADAR HAVE BEEN
INCREASING WITH INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
NOTED THAT BISON SD RECEIVED 0.01 OF RAIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THUS PRECIPITATION IS NOW FINALLY REACHING THE GROUND.
EXPECT THAT THE BOWMAN AREA IS SEEING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST SHOULD BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING...AND THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOULD
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME. THE MODELS WERE KEYING IN ON
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE TONIGHT...
MAINLY OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND WYOMING...WITH MORE
OF THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE REMAINING FARTHER WEST OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF NORTH DAKOTA. HELD OFF WITH HIGHER PRECIP
CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE JAMES VALLEY UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE STATE IS LIKELY TO SEE RAIN...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FARTHER NORTH WITH TIME...BUT THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL HAVE LESS THAN 50 PERCENT
CHANCES OF RAIN. SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY INCREASES
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH BETTER FORCING AND CAPE. WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY MORNING...AND FOR THE CHANCE
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH IN
THE AFTERNOON.

EXPECTING ONLY A TENTH OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT SOUTHWEST.
EXPECTING 0.25 TO 0.50 SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH 0.20 TO 0.40 OVER THE
REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

LOWS TONIGHT FROM 45 TO 50 MOST AREAS IN CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SUNDAY
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SOUTH...AND UPPER 60S TO 70 NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RELIED MORE ON
THE ECMWF VERSUS THE GFS BEFORE THE SUPERBLEND TOOK OVER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY OVER-
FORECASTING AREAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED AMOUNTS. PER
ECMWF...A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM FROM THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY LIFT FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING SUNDAY NIGHT TO
EASTERN MINNESOTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...FAVORING CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH LESSER CHANCES IN THE NORTH. FOR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ALMOST ON A DAILY BASIS. THE DAYS WITH THE LOWEST
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AND HENCE MOSTLY A DRY FORECAST
RESIDE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...AND  ON
SATURDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FAVOR HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES BY SUNDAY. EXPECT
MAINLY SCATTERED PRECIPITATON SUNDAY MORNING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS
INTO KDIK AROUND 12Z...KBIS AROUND 16Z AND KJMS AROUND 21Z. KEPT
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HINTS AT LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KDIK BEGINNING 08-12Z. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE LIFR FOR
NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 232351
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
651 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A BAND OF SHOWERS IS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE NOTHING MORE THAN POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD. DID
MENTION SOME HIGH POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BAND LIFTING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THIS EVENING...THEN SOME CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID KEEP SOME LIKELY POPS FOR NOW ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER AFTER 09Z. WILL MONITOR THOUGH THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE
OF RAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS INDICATE YET MORE DELAY IN TIMING OF THE
ONSET OF RAIN MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER COLORADO.

THE GFS MODEL REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE...ALREADY INDICATING THAT RAIN
SHOULD BE ADVANCING NORTH TOWARDS I-94. THIS MODEL WAS DISCOUNTED
FOR TODAY`S FORECAST. INSTEAD USED A BLEND OF THE NAM...ECMWF...HRRR
AND CANADIAN MODELS IN DETERMINING CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION ADVANCEMENT
NORTHWARD. LOW CLOUDS REMAINED STEADY BROKEN/OVERCAST AT HETTINGER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OVERCAST SKIES REACHING DICKINSON AND NEARLY
AT BISMARCK. RADAR RETURNS FROM THE BOWMAN RADAR HAVE BEEN
INCREASING WITH INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
NOTED THAT BISON SD RECEIVED 0.01 OF RAIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THUS PRECIPITATION IS NOW FINALLY REACHING THE GROUND.
EXPECT THAT THE BOWMAN AREA IS SEEING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST SHOULD BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING...AND THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOULD
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME. THE MODELS WERE KEYING IN ON
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE TONIGHT...
MAINLY OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND WYOMING...WITH MORE
OF THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE REMAINING FARTHER WEST OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF NORTH DAKOTA. HELD OFF WITH HIGHER PRECIP
CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE JAMES VALLEY UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE STATE IS LIKELY TO SEE RAIN...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FARTHER NORTH WITH TIME...BUT THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL HAVE LESS THAN 50 PERCENT
CHANCES OF RAIN. SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY INCREASES
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH BETTER FORCING AND CAPE. WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY MORNING...AND FOR THE CHANCE
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH IN
THE AFTERNOON.

EXPECTING ONLY A TENTH OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT SOUTHWEST.
EXPECTING 0.25 TO 0.50 SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH 0.20 TO 0.40 OVER THE
REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

LOWS TONIGHT FROM 45 TO 50 MOST AREAS IN CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SUNDAY
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SOUTH...AND UPPER 60S TO 70 NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RELIED MORE ON
THE ECMWF VERSUS THE GFS BEFORE THE SUPERBLEND TOOK OVER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY OVER-
FORECASTING AREAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED AMOUNTS. PER
ECMWF...A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM FROM THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY LIFT FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING SUNDAY NIGHT TO
EASTERN MINNESOTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...FAVORING CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH LESSER CHANCES IN THE NORTH. FOR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ALMOST ON A DAILY BASIS. THE DAYS WITH THE LOWEST
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AND HENCE MOSTLY A DRY FORECAST
RESIDE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...AND  ON
SATURDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FAVOR HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES BY SUNDAY. EXPECT
MAINLY SCATTERED PRECIPITATON SUNDAY MORNING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS
INTO KDIK AROUND 12Z...KBIS AROUND 16Z AND KJMS AROUND 21Z. KEPT
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HINTS AT LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KDIK BEGINNING 08-12Z. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE LIFR FOR
NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 232351
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
651 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A BAND OF SHOWERS IS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE NOTHING MORE THAN POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD. DID
MENTION SOME HIGH POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BAND LIFTING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THIS EVENING...THEN SOME CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID KEEP SOME LIKELY POPS FOR NOW ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER AFTER 09Z. WILL MONITOR THOUGH THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE
OF RAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS INDICATE YET MORE DELAY IN TIMING OF THE
ONSET OF RAIN MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER COLORADO.

THE GFS MODEL REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE...ALREADY INDICATING THAT RAIN
SHOULD BE ADVANCING NORTH TOWARDS I-94. THIS MODEL WAS DISCOUNTED
FOR TODAY`S FORECAST. INSTEAD USED A BLEND OF THE NAM...ECMWF...HRRR
AND CANADIAN MODELS IN DETERMINING CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION ADVANCEMENT
NORTHWARD. LOW CLOUDS REMAINED STEADY BROKEN/OVERCAST AT HETTINGER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OVERCAST SKIES REACHING DICKINSON AND NEARLY
AT BISMARCK. RADAR RETURNS FROM THE BOWMAN RADAR HAVE BEEN
INCREASING WITH INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
NOTED THAT BISON SD RECEIVED 0.01 OF RAIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THUS PRECIPITATION IS NOW FINALLY REACHING THE GROUND.
EXPECT THAT THE BOWMAN AREA IS SEEING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST SHOULD BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING...AND THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOULD
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME. THE MODELS WERE KEYING IN ON
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE TONIGHT...
MAINLY OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND WYOMING...WITH MORE
OF THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE REMAINING FARTHER WEST OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF NORTH DAKOTA. HELD OFF WITH HIGHER PRECIP
CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE JAMES VALLEY UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE STATE IS LIKELY TO SEE RAIN...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FARTHER NORTH WITH TIME...BUT THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL HAVE LESS THAN 50 PERCENT
CHANCES OF RAIN. SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY INCREASES
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH BETTER FORCING AND CAPE. WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY MORNING...AND FOR THE CHANCE
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH IN
THE AFTERNOON.

EXPECTING ONLY A TENTH OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT SOUTHWEST.
EXPECTING 0.25 TO 0.50 SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH 0.20 TO 0.40 OVER THE
REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

LOWS TONIGHT FROM 45 TO 50 MOST AREAS IN CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SUNDAY
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SOUTH...AND UPPER 60S TO 70 NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RELIED MORE ON
THE ECMWF VERSUS THE GFS BEFORE THE SUPERBLEND TOOK OVER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY OVER-
FORECASTING AREAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED AMOUNTS. PER
ECMWF...A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM FROM THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY LIFT FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING SUNDAY NIGHT TO
EASTERN MINNESOTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...FAVORING CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH LESSER CHANCES IN THE NORTH. FOR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ALMOST ON A DAILY BASIS. THE DAYS WITH THE LOWEST
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AND HENCE MOSTLY A DRY FORECAST
RESIDE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...AND  ON
SATURDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FAVOR HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES BY SUNDAY. EXPECT
MAINLY SCATTERED PRECIPITATON SUNDAY MORNING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS
INTO KDIK AROUND 12Z...KBIS AROUND 16Z AND KJMS AROUND 21Z. KEPT
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HINTS AT LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KDIK BEGINNING 08-12Z. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE LIFR FOR
NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KFGF 232348
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUDS TO FIT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
BUT NO CHANGES OTHERWISE TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN TREND IS SLOWER...AND MODIFIED THE POP/WX FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH (EXCEPT POSSIBLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER). UPPER RIDGING HANGS ON INTO SUNDAY
(EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT) WHICH WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT. DID KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-94...BUT EVEN THIS MIGHT BE OVERKILL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MONDAY-TUESDAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE ROCKIES UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE
WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPING. THE NAM/SREF INDICATE MORE INTERACTION WITH THE
ROCKIES UPPER LOW THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. THIS WILL AFFECT LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS. AT ANY RATE...ANTICIPATE A HEAVIER
DEFORMATION RAIN BAND TO SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FA (NAM/SREF
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF/GFS). WITH PWATS 1.25 TO 1.50
INCHES AND STRONG FORCING...OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST AN AREA OF 1-2 INCHES RAINFALL...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES (MUCH LIKE LAST WEEKEND). WE HAVE
HAD A WEEK TO DRY OUT...AND THIS RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER A
12-24 HOUR DURATION...SO AREAL FLOODING ONLY A MINOR CONCERN.

DRIER ON TUESDAY...WITH POSSIBLE WEAK AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...REGION WILL BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CANADA. INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
S MB INTO ONTARIO WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH. AIRMASS MODESTLY WARM AND
UNSTABLE SOUTH OF BOUNDARY SO LOW POPS SEEM REASONABLE. MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WESTERN TROUGH
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MIDWEEK WITH THE FAVORED PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA. SURFACE HIGH
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL SHUNT MAIN PCPN CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE FA TOWARDS END OF WORK WEEK BUT WILL ALSO BRING COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY WILL RANGE ABOVE AVERAGE
DROPPING TO AT OR BLO AVERAGES BY END WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN AND CU OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA
SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME LOWER CLOUDS WILL
START MOVING INTO THE KFAR AREA BY MORNING AND THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES BY AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH CIGS NEAR
5000 FT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND THEN
STEADY OUT OF THE EAST BY TOMORROW AT AROUND 8 TO 10 KTS

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 232348
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUDS TO FIT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
BUT NO CHANGES OTHERWISE TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN TREND IS SLOWER...AND MODIFIED THE POP/WX FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH (EXCEPT POSSIBLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER). UPPER RIDGING HANGS ON INTO SUNDAY
(EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT) WHICH WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT. DID KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-94...BUT EVEN THIS MIGHT BE OVERKILL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MONDAY-TUESDAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE ROCKIES UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE
WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPING. THE NAM/SREF INDICATE MORE INTERACTION WITH THE
ROCKIES UPPER LOW THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. THIS WILL AFFECT LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS. AT ANY RATE...ANTICIPATE A HEAVIER
DEFORMATION RAIN BAND TO SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FA (NAM/SREF
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF/GFS). WITH PWATS 1.25 TO 1.50
INCHES AND STRONG FORCING...OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST AN AREA OF 1-2 INCHES RAINFALL...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES (MUCH LIKE LAST WEEKEND). WE HAVE
HAD A WEEK TO DRY OUT...AND THIS RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER A
12-24 HOUR DURATION...SO AREAL FLOODING ONLY A MINOR CONCERN.

DRIER ON TUESDAY...WITH POSSIBLE WEAK AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...REGION WILL BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CANADA. INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
S MB INTO ONTARIO WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH. AIRMASS MODESTLY WARM AND
UNSTABLE SOUTH OF BOUNDARY SO LOW POPS SEEM REASONABLE. MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WESTERN TROUGH
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MIDWEEK WITH THE FAVORED PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA. SURFACE HIGH
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL SHUNT MAIN PCPN CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE FA TOWARDS END OF WORK WEEK BUT WILL ALSO BRING COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY WILL RANGE ABOVE AVERAGE
DROPPING TO AT OR BLO AVERAGES BY END WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN AND CU OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA
SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME LOWER CLOUDS WILL
START MOVING INTO THE KFAR AREA BY MORNING AND THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES BY AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH CIGS NEAR
5000 FT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND THEN
STEADY OUT OF THE EAST BY TOMORROW AT AROUND 8 TO 10 KTS

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 232348
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUDS TO FIT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
BUT NO CHANGES OTHERWISE TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN TREND IS SLOWER...AND MODIFIED THE POP/WX FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH (EXCEPT POSSIBLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER). UPPER RIDGING HANGS ON INTO SUNDAY
(EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT) WHICH WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT. DID KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-94...BUT EVEN THIS MIGHT BE OVERKILL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MONDAY-TUESDAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE ROCKIES UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE
WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPING. THE NAM/SREF INDICATE MORE INTERACTION WITH THE
ROCKIES UPPER LOW THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. THIS WILL AFFECT LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS. AT ANY RATE...ANTICIPATE A HEAVIER
DEFORMATION RAIN BAND TO SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FA (NAM/SREF
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF/GFS). WITH PWATS 1.25 TO 1.50
INCHES AND STRONG FORCING...OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST AN AREA OF 1-2 INCHES RAINFALL...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES (MUCH LIKE LAST WEEKEND). WE HAVE
HAD A WEEK TO DRY OUT...AND THIS RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER A
12-24 HOUR DURATION...SO AREAL FLOODING ONLY A MINOR CONCERN.

DRIER ON TUESDAY...WITH POSSIBLE WEAK AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...REGION WILL BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CANADA. INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
S MB INTO ONTARIO WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH. AIRMASS MODESTLY WARM AND
UNSTABLE SOUTH OF BOUNDARY SO LOW POPS SEEM REASONABLE. MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WESTERN TROUGH
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MIDWEEK WITH THE FAVORED PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA. SURFACE HIGH
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL SHUNT MAIN PCPN CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE FA TOWARDS END OF WORK WEEK BUT WILL ALSO BRING COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY WILL RANGE ABOVE AVERAGE
DROPPING TO AT OR BLO AVERAGES BY END WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN AND CU OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA
SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME LOWER CLOUDS WILL
START MOVING INTO THE KFAR AREA BY MORNING AND THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES BY AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH CIGS NEAR
5000 FT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND THEN
STEADY OUT OF THE EAST BY TOMORROW AT AROUND 8 TO 10 KTS

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 232348
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUDS TO FIT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
BUT NO CHANGES OTHERWISE TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN TREND IS SLOWER...AND MODIFIED THE POP/WX FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH (EXCEPT POSSIBLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER). UPPER RIDGING HANGS ON INTO SUNDAY
(EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT) WHICH WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT. DID KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-94...BUT EVEN THIS MIGHT BE OVERKILL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MONDAY-TUESDAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE ROCKIES UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE
WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPING. THE NAM/SREF INDICATE MORE INTERACTION WITH THE
ROCKIES UPPER LOW THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. THIS WILL AFFECT LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS. AT ANY RATE...ANTICIPATE A HEAVIER
DEFORMATION RAIN BAND TO SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FA (NAM/SREF
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF/GFS). WITH PWATS 1.25 TO 1.50
INCHES AND STRONG FORCING...OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST AN AREA OF 1-2 INCHES RAINFALL...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES (MUCH LIKE LAST WEEKEND). WE HAVE
HAD A WEEK TO DRY OUT...AND THIS RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER A
12-24 HOUR DURATION...SO AREAL FLOODING ONLY A MINOR CONCERN.

DRIER ON TUESDAY...WITH POSSIBLE WEAK AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...REGION WILL BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CANADA. INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
S MB INTO ONTARIO WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH. AIRMASS MODESTLY WARM AND
UNSTABLE SOUTH OF BOUNDARY SO LOW POPS SEEM REASONABLE. MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WESTERN TROUGH
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MIDWEEK WITH THE FAVORED PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA. SURFACE HIGH
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL SHUNT MAIN PCPN CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE FA TOWARDS END OF WORK WEEK BUT WILL ALSO BRING COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY WILL RANGE ABOVE AVERAGE
DROPPING TO AT OR BLO AVERAGES BY END WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN AND CU OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA
SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME LOWER CLOUDS WILL
START MOVING INTO THE KFAR AREA BY MORNING AND THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES BY AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH CIGS NEAR
5000 FT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND THEN
STEADY OUT OF THE EAST BY TOMORROW AT AROUND 8 TO 10 KTS

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 232023
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN TREND IS SLOWER...AND MODIFIED THE POP/WX FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH (EXCEPT POSSIBLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER). UPPER RIDGING HANGS ON INTO SUNDAY
(EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT) WHICH WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT. DID KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-94...BUT EVEN THIS MIGHT BE OVERKILL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MONDAY-TUESDAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE ROCKIES UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE
WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPING. THE NAM/SREF INDICATE MORE INTERACTION WITH THE
ROCKIES UPPER LOW THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. THIS WILL AFFECT LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS. AT ANY RATE...ANTICIPATE A HEAVIER
DEFORMATION RAIN BAND TO SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FA (NAM/SREF
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF/GFS). WITH PWATS 1.25 TO 1.50
INCHES AND STRONG FORCING...OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST AN AREA OF 1-2 INCHES RAINFALL...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES (MUCH LIKE LAST WEEKEND). WE HAVE
HAD A WEEK TO DRY OUT...AND THIS RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER A
12-24 HOUR DURATION...SO AREAL FLOODING ONLY A MINOR CONCERN.

DRIER ON TUESDAY...WITH POSSIBLE WEAK AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...REGION WILL BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CANADA. INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
S MB INTO ONTARIO WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH. AIRMASS MODESTLY WARM AND
UNSTABLE SOUTH OF BOUNDARY SO LOW POPS SEEM REASONABLE. MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WESTERN TROUGH
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MIDWEEK WITH THE FAVORED PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA. SURFACE HIGH
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL SHUNT MAIN PCPN CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE FA TOWARDS END OF WORK WEEK BUT WILL ALSO BRING COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY WILL RANGE ABOVE AVERAGE
DROPPING TO AT OR BLO AVERAGES BY END WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

CONTINUE WITH VFR CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN FA REACHING FAR
EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 232023
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN TREND IS SLOWER...AND MODIFIED THE POP/WX FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH (EXCEPT POSSIBLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER). UPPER RIDGING HANGS ON INTO SUNDAY
(EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT) WHICH WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT. DID KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-94...BUT EVEN THIS MIGHT BE OVERKILL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MONDAY-TUESDAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE ROCKIES UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE
WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPING. THE NAM/SREF INDICATE MORE INTERACTION WITH THE
ROCKIES UPPER LOW THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. THIS WILL AFFECT LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS. AT ANY RATE...ANTICIPATE A HEAVIER
DEFORMATION RAIN BAND TO SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FA (NAM/SREF
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF/GFS). WITH PWATS 1.25 TO 1.50
INCHES AND STRONG FORCING...OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST AN AREA OF 1-2 INCHES RAINFALL...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES (MUCH LIKE LAST WEEKEND). WE HAVE
HAD A WEEK TO DRY OUT...AND THIS RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER A
12-24 HOUR DURATION...SO AREAL FLOODING ONLY A MINOR CONCERN.

DRIER ON TUESDAY...WITH POSSIBLE WEAK AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...REGION WILL BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CANADA. INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
S MB INTO ONTARIO WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH. AIRMASS MODESTLY WARM AND
UNSTABLE SOUTH OF BOUNDARY SO LOW POPS SEEM REASONABLE. MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WESTERN TROUGH
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MIDWEEK WITH THE FAVORED PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA. SURFACE HIGH
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL SHUNT MAIN PCPN CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE FA TOWARDS END OF WORK WEEK BUT WILL ALSO BRING COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY WILL RANGE ABOVE AVERAGE
DROPPING TO AT OR BLO AVERAGES BY END WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

CONTINUE WITH VFR CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN FA REACHING FAR
EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 232023
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN TREND IS SLOWER...AND MODIFIED THE POP/WX FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH (EXCEPT POSSIBLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER). UPPER RIDGING HANGS ON INTO SUNDAY
(EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT) WHICH WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT. DID KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-94...BUT EVEN THIS MIGHT BE OVERKILL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MONDAY-TUESDAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE ROCKIES UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE
WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPING. THE NAM/SREF INDICATE MORE INTERACTION WITH THE
ROCKIES UPPER LOW THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. THIS WILL AFFECT LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS. AT ANY RATE...ANTICIPATE A HEAVIER
DEFORMATION RAIN BAND TO SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FA (NAM/SREF
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF/GFS). WITH PWATS 1.25 TO 1.50
INCHES AND STRONG FORCING...OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST AN AREA OF 1-2 INCHES RAINFALL...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES (MUCH LIKE LAST WEEKEND). WE HAVE
HAD A WEEK TO DRY OUT...AND THIS RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER A
12-24 HOUR DURATION...SO AREAL FLOODING ONLY A MINOR CONCERN.

DRIER ON TUESDAY...WITH POSSIBLE WEAK AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...REGION WILL BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CANADA. INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
S MB INTO ONTARIO WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH. AIRMASS MODESTLY WARM AND
UNSTABLE SOUTH OF BOUNDARY SO LOW POPS SEEM REASONABLE. MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WESTERN TROUGH
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MIDWEEK WITH THE FAVORED PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA. SURFACE HIGH
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL SHUNT MAIN PCPN CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE FA TOWARDS END OF WORK WEEK BUT WILL ALSO BRING COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY WILL RANGE ABOVE AVERAGE
DROPPING TO AT OR BLO AVERAGES BY END WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

CONTINUE WITH VFR CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN FA REACHING FAR
EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 232023
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN TREND IS SLOWER...AND MODIFIED THE POP/WX FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH (EXCEPT POSSIBLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER). UPPER RIDGING HANGS ON INTO SUNDAY
(EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT) WHICH WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT. DID KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-94...BUT EVEN THIS MIGHT BE OVERKILL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MONDAY-TUESDAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE ROCKIES UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE
WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPING. THE NAM/SREF INDICATE MORE INTERACTION WITH THE
ROCKIES UPPER LOW THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. THIS WILL AFFECT LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS. AT ANY RATE...ANTICIPATE A HEAVIER
DEFORMATION RAIN BAND TO SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FA (NAM/SREF
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF/GFS). WITH PWATS 1.25 TO 1.50
INCHES AND STRONG FORCING...OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST AN AREA OF 1-2 INCHES RAINFALL...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES (MUCH LIKE LAST WEEKEND). WE HAVE
HAD A WEEK TO DRY OUT...AND THIS RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER A
12-24 HOUR DURATION...SO AREAL FLOODING ONLY A MINOR CONCERN.

DRIER ON TUESDAY...WITH POSSIBLE WEAK AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...REGION WILL BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CANADA. INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
S MB INTO ONTARIO WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH. AIRMASS MODESTLY WARM AND
UNSTABLE SOUTH OF BOUNDARY SO LOW POPS SEEM REASONABLE. MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WESTERN TROUGH
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MIDWEEK WITH THE FAVORED PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA. SURFACE HIGH
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL SHUNT MAIN PCPN CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE FA TOWARDS END OF WORK WEEK BUT WILL ALSO BRING COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY WILL RANGE ABOVE AVERAGE
DROPPING TO AT OR BLO AVERAGES BY END WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

CONTINUE WITH VFR CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN FA REACHING FAR
EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KBIS 231939
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
239 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE
OF RAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS INDICATE YET MORE DELAY IN TIMING OF THE
ONSET OF RAIN MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER COLORADO.

THE GFS MODEL REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE...ALREADY INDICATING THAT RAIN
SHOULD BE ADVANCING NORTH TOWARDS I-94. THIS MODEL WAS DISCOUNTED
FOR TODAY`S FORECAST. INSTEAD USED A BLEND OF THE NAM...ECMWF...HRRR
AND CANADIAN MODELS IN DETERMINING CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION ADVANCEMENT
NORTHWARD. LOW CLOUDS REMAINED STEADY BROKEN/OVERCAST AT HETTINGER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OVERCAST SKIES REACHING DICKINSON AND NEARLY
AT BISMARCK. RADAR RETURNS FROM THE BOWMAN RADAR HAVE BEEN
INCREASING WITH INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
NOTED THAT BISON SD RECEIVED 0.01 OF RAIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THUS PRECIPITATION IS NOW FINALLY REACHING THE GROUND.
EXPECT THAT THE BOWMAN AREA IS SEEING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST SHOULD BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING...AND THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOULD
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME. THE MODELS WERE KEYING IN ON
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE TONIGHT...
MAINLY OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND WYOMING...WITH MORE
OF THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE REMAINING FARTHER WEST OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF NORTH DAKOTA. HELD OFF WITH HIGHER PRECIP
CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE JAMES VALLEY UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE STATE IS LIKELY TO SEE RAIN...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FARTHER NORTH WITH TIME...BUT THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL HAVE LESS THAN 50 PERCENT
CHANCES OF RAIN. SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY INCREASES
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH BETTER FORCING AND CAPE. WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY MORNING...AND FOR THE CHANCE
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH IN
THE AFTERNOON.

EXPECTING ONLY A TENTH OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT SOUTHWEST.
EXPECTING 0.25 TO 0.50 SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH 0.20 TO 0.40 OVER THE
REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

LOWS TONIGHT FROM 45 TO 50 MOST AREAS IN CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SUNDAY
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SOUTH...AND UPPER 60S TO 70 NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RELIED MORE ON
THE ECMWF VERSUS THE GFS BEFORE THE SUPERBLEND TOOK OVER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY OVER-
FORECASTING AREAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED AMOUNTS. PER
ECMWF...A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM FROM THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY LIFT FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING SUNDAY NIGHT TO
EASTERN MINNESOTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...FAVORING CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH LESSER CHANCES IN THE NORTH. FOR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ALMOST ON A DAILY BASIS. THE DAYS WITH THE LOWEST
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AND HENCE MOSTLY A DRY FORECAST
RESIDE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...AND  ON
SATURDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FAVOR HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
VFR AT KISN UNTIL AROUND 06Z WHEN MVFR CIGS FORECAST.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO MFVR CIGS AT KDIK/KBIS
AROUND 00Z WITH VCSH...AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN BY AROUND
04Z-06Z. KJMS TO BECOME MVFR LATER TONIGHT WITH RAIN.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KBIS 231939
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
239 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE
OF RAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS INDICATE YET MORE DELAY IN TIMING OF THE
ONSET OF RAIN MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER COLORADO.

THE GFS MODEL REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE...ALREADY INDICATING THAT RAIN
SHOULD BE ADVANCING NORTH TOWARDS I-94. THIS MODEL WAS DISCOUNTED
FOR TODAY`S FORECAST. INSTEAD USED A BLEND OF THE NAM...ECMWF...HRRR
AND CANADIAN MODELS IN DETERMINING CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION ADVANCEMENT
NORTHWARD. LOW CLOUDS REMAINED STEADY BROKEN/OVERCAST AT HETTINGER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OVERCAST SKIES REACHING DICKINSON AND NEARLY
AT BISMARCK. RADAR RETURNS FROM THE BOWMAN RADAR HAVE BEEN
INCREASING WITH INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
NOTED THAT BISON SD RECEIVED 0.01 OF RAIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THUS PRECIPITATION IS NOW FINALLY REACHING THE GROUND.
EXPECT THAT THE BOWMAN AREA IS SEEING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST SHOULD BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING...AND THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOULD
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME. THE MODELS WERE KEYING IN ON
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE TONIGHT...
MAINLY OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND WYOMING...WITH MORE
OF THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE REMAINING FARTHER WEST OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF NORTH DAKOTA. HELD OFF WITH HIGHER PRECIP
CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE JAMES VALLEY UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE STATE IS LIKELY TO SEE RAIN...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FARTHER NORTH WITH TIME...BUT THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL HAVE LESS THAN 50 PERCENT
CHANCES OF RAIN. SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY INCREASES
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH BETTER FORCING AND CAPE. WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY MORNING...AND FOR THE CHANCE
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH IN
THE AFTERNOON.

EXPECTING ONLY A TENTH OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT SOUTHWEST.
EXPECTING 0.25 TO 0.50 SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH 0.20 TO 0.40 OVER THE
REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

LOWS TONIGHT FROM 45 TO 50 MOST AREAS IN CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SUNDAY
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SOUTH...AND UPPER 60S TO 70 NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RELIED MORE ON
THE ECMWF VERSUS THE GFS BEFORE THE SUPERBLEND TOOK OVER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY OVER-
FORECASTING AREAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED AMOUNTS. PER
ECMWF...A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM FROM THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY LIFT FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING SUNDAY NIGHT TO
EASTERN MINNESOTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...FAVORING CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH LESSER CHANCES IN THE NORTH. FOR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ALMOST ON A DAILY BASIS. THE DAYS WITH THE LOWEST
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AND HENCE MOSTLY A DRY FORECAST
RESIDE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...AND  ON
SATURDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FAVOR HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
VFR AT KISN UNTIL AROUND 06Z WHEN MVFR CIGS FORECAST.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO MFVR CIGS AT KDIK/KBIS
AROUND 00Z WITH VCSH...AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN BY AROUND
04Z-06Z. KJMS TO BECOME MVFR LATER TONIGHT WITH RAIN.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KFGF 231752
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

STILL LOOKING AT SOME POSSIBLE SPRINKLES ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TODAY...BUT REMAINING SOUTH OF HWY 2. RAP 850MB-700MB RELATIVE
HUMIDITY APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS CLOUD SHIELD AND
USED FOR TIMING PURPOSES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S
(POSSIBLY 80F) NORTH OF HWY 2 WITH FULL SOLAR...WITH COOLER VALUES
NEAR 70F WITH CLOUDS. DID RAISE MAX TEMPS A BIT NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISSUES WILL BE HOW FAR AND WHEN WILL THE PRECIP SPREAD NORTH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER UTAH/N ARIZONA THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS..AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME MID CLOUDS IN THE
SRN FCST AREA THIS AFTN. OF INTEREST IS A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS IN
THE SIOUX FALLS AREA. HRRR AND A FEW OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS DO
BRING A FEW SPITS OF PRECIP NORTHEAST INTO WCNTRL MN (ALEX-ST
CLOUD AREA) LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. TO BLEND WITH WFO MPX I
DID INSERT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OTTER TAIL AND WADENA COUNTIES LATE
MORNING INTO MID AFTN. BASED ON MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ANY SHOWERS
WILL NOT REACH THE SD/ND BORDER AREA TIL LATE THIS AFTN AND
TRIMMED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY. TONIGHT WILL SEE A SHOWER RICK
IN THE SOUTH BUT STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SLOWING DOWN ANY NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF MOISTURE.

SUNDAY WILL SEE DEEPER MOISTURE START TO MOVE INTO SE ND AND THEN
SPREAD NORTH DURING THE DAY. THUS HIGHER POPS...MOSTLY SOUTHERN
FCST AREA. GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER THAN ECMWF/GEM WHICH KEEP
DVL-GFK AREA DRY THRU SUN EVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RAIN CHANCES SPREAD NORTH SUN NIGHT WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
AS UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SD INTO CNTRL/SRN
MN. HIGH PRESSURE DOES REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SOME
MODELS WANT TO KEEP FAR NW FCST AREA DRY EVEN MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
WENT WITH SUPERBLEND OF MODELS AND IDEA OF CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY SE 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT VERY WEAK...SO DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
SUN NIGHT THRU MON IN THE GRIDS. PRECIP BEGINS TO MOVE EAST MON
NIGHT. AS FOR HOW MUCH RAINFALL....MOST AREAS IN THE ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS INCH RANGE GFK SOUTH AND EAST AND LESS NORTHWEST.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER FEATURES BECOME OUT OF
PHASE WHEN COMPARING ECMWF AND GFS...UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY`S
SOLUTION. ECMWF HAS LONGER WAVES WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW MID
WEEK WHILE GFS HANGS ON TO A DIGGING SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE BORDER
WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE KEY TO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS.
LATEST EXTENDED SUPERBLEND SOLUTION CONTINUES WITH POPS COVERING
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA MOST OF THE TIME...ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO
SMOOTH OUT MINUTE AREAS OF PCPN/NO PCPN WITHIN THE FGF CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

CONTINUE WITH VFR CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN FA REACHING FAR
EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KBIS 231725
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

CLOUD COVER MOVING NORTH FROM SOUTH DAKOTA AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MAINLY ON TRACK. STILL SUNNY NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES THERE TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S. THIS AFFECTS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...WITH DEWPOINTS
LOWERING NORTH WITH MIXING...AND MIN RH VALUES NORTH NOW EXPECTED
IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.

RADAR RETURNS AT BOWMAN ARE BECOMING STRONGER IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. THUS CHANCES OF RAIN BEGINNING IN
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES IN
TIMING EXPECTATIONS FOR RAIN...WITH AFTERNOON CHANCES FAR SOUTHWEST
AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND MOVING NORTHWARD GRADUALLY TOWARD EVENING
TO AROUND I-94 IN THE SOUTHWEST BUT NOT REACHING I-94 IN THE JAMES
VALLEY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SATELLITE LOOPS AND SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE LARGE CLOUD MASS
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
DAY. LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODELS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS MAKING THEIR
WAY NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE I-94 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY. LOW
CLOUDS IN HETTINGER HAVE SCATTERED OUT...BUT EXPECT THAT WITH TIME
THEY WILL COVER THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.

REGARDING RAIN CHANCES...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT FOR THE
MORNING HOURS AS PER THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. SHORT
TERM MODELS - INCLUDING THE NAM - INDICATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. A LOOK AT THE BOWMAN RADAR INDICATES LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND SUSPECT
RADAR IS PICKING UP ON MID CLOUDS AND/OR VIRGA IN THE AREA.
LIFTING GOING ON IN THE LOW/MID ATMOSPHERE BUT NOT ENOUGH YET TO
YIELD PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. THE GFS REMAINS VERY
AGGRESSIVE AND IS OVER- FORECASTING THE PRECIPITATION. MINOR
CHANGES TO AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES...BUT BASICALLY CHANCES ARE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-94...PERHAPS A BIT
BETTER FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARDS THE MEDORA/BEACH AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

BETTER LIFTING AND STRONGER FORCING BEGINS THIS EVENING.

RAISED TEMPERATURES A TAD IN THE FAR NORTH BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WAVE MOVING NORTH ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE RAIN
CHANCES TODAY. CURRENT RAP / HRRR SUGGEST ANY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
HOLD OFF FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS IN
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL MAINTAIN THAT
TIMING FOR THIS UPDATE. MAINLY BLENDED CURRENT CONDITIONS INTO
THE FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING OF RAIN
TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE INDICATE AN EVEN
FURTHER DELAY IN PRECIPITATION ONSET. THE EARLIER NAM AND GEM RUNS
KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THEIR LATEST RUNS. FURTHERMORE...THE OO UTC
RUNS OF THE WRF FURTHER INDICATE A DELAY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER EJECTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ALSO PUSHED BACK THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN...SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SHOULD BE THE COOL SPOT TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S...WHILE NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SEES A LITTLE MORE SUN AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE RAIN / THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES KEEP CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL DETAILS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY SOMEWHAT LOW. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL IN REGARDS TO QPF ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE NAM IS ON THE LOW END OF VALUES. THE
ECMWF IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A BLEND
OF SOLUTIONS. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND QPF ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF NORTH DAKOTA. INSTABILITY IS STILL NOT VERY
HIGH ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE KEPT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.
AS STATED EARLIER...MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL VARY ON MONDAY...AND
THIS ALSO INFLUENCES THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THEY PRODUCE. WILL
BUMP UP THE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ON MONDAY WITH MORE
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY THE GFS...BUT WILL KEEP THINGS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WE ARE STILL SHOWING THE HIGHEST
TOTALS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1.00 - 1.25
INCHES ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS
REMAIN IN THE NORTH WHERE WE HAVE 0.25 - 0.50 INCH THROUGH THAT
SAME TIME PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A BLENDED
MODEL SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY OVERALL IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
VFR AT KISN UNTIL AROUND 06Z WHEN MVFR CIGS FORECAST.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO MFVR CIGS AT KDIK/KBIS
AROUND 00Z WITH VCSH...AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN BY AROUND
04Z-06Z. KJMS TO BECOME MVFR LATER TONIGHT WITH RAIN.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KBIS 231725
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

CLOUD COVER MOVING NORTH FROM SOUTH DAKOTA AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MAINLY ON TRACK. STILL SUNNY NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES THERE TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S. THIS AFFECTS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...WITH DEWPOINTS
LOWERING NORTH WITH MIXING...AND MIN RH VALUES NORTH NOW EXPECTED
IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.

RADAR RETURNS AT BOWMAN ARE BECOMING STRONGER IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. THUS CHANCES OF RAIN BEGINNING IN
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES IN
TIMING EXPECTATIONS FOR RAIN...WITH AFTERNOON CHANCES FAR SOUTHWEST
AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND MOVING NORTHWARD GRADUALLY TOWARD EVENING
TO AROUND I-94 IN THE SOUTHWEST BUT NOT REACHING I-94 IN THE JAMES
VALLEY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SATELLITE LOOPS AND SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE LARGE CLOUD MASS
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
DAY. LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODELS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS MAKING THEIR
WAY NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE I-94 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY. LOW
CLOUDS IN HETTINGER HAVE SCATTERED OUT...BUT EXPECT THAT WITH TIME
THEY WILL COVER THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.

REGARDING RAIN CHANCES...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT FOR THE
MORNING HOURS AS PER THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. SHORT
TERM MODELS - INCLUDING THE NAM - INDICATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. A LOOK AT THE BOWMAN RADAR INDICATES LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND SUSPECT
RADAR IS PICKING UP ON MID CLOUDS AND/OR VIRGA IN THE AREA.
LIFTING GOING ON IN THE LOW/MID ATMOSPHERE BUT NOT ENOUGH YET TO
YIELD PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. THE GFS REMAINS VERY
AGGRESSIVE AND IS OVER- FORECASTING THE PRECIPITATION. MINOR
CHANGES TO AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES...BUT BASICALLY CHANCES ARE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-94...PERHAPS A BIT
BETTER FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARDS THE MEDORA/BEACH AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

BETTER LIFTING AND STRONGER FORCING BEGINS THIS EVENING.

RAISED TEMPERATURES A TAD IN THE FAR NORTH BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WAVE MOVING NORTH ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE RAIN
CHANCES TODAY. CURRENT RAP / HRRR SUGGEST ANY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
HOLD OFF FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS IN
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL MAINTAIN THAT
TIMING FOR THIS UPDATE. MAINLY BLENDED CURRENT CONDITIONS INTO
THE FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING OF RAIN
TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE INDICATE AN EVEN
FURTHER DELAY IN PRECIPITATION ONSET. THE EARLIER NAM AND GEM RUNS
KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THEIR LATEST RUNS. FURTHERMORE...THE OO UTC
RUNS OF THE WRF FURTHER INDICATE A DELAY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER EJECTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ALSO PUSHED BACK THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN...SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SHOULD BE THE COOL SPOT TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S...WHILE NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SEES A LITTLE MORE SUN AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE RAIN / THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES KEEP CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL DETAILS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY SOMEWHAT LOW. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL IN REGARDS TO QPF ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE NAM IS ON THE LOW END OF VALUES. THE
ECMWF IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A BLEND
OF SOLUTIONS. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND QPF ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF NORTH DAKOTA. INSTABILITY IS STILL NOT VERY
HIGH ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE KEPT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.
AS STATED EARLIER...MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL VARY ON MONDAY...AND
THIS ALSO INFLUENCES THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THEY PRODUCE. WILL
BUMP UP THE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ON MONDAY WITH MORE
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY THE GFS...BUT WILL KEEP THINGS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WE ARE STILL SHOWING THE HIGHEST
TOTALS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1.00 - 1.25
INCHES ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS
REMAIN IN THE NORTH WHERE WE HAVE 0.25 - 0.50 INCH THROUGH THAT
SAME TIME PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A BLENDED
MODEL SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY OVERALL IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
VFR AT KISN UNTIL AROUND 06Z WHEN MVFR CIGS FORECAST.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO MFVR CIGS AT KDIK/KBIS
AROUND 00Z WITH VCSH...AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN BY AROUND
04Z-06Z. KJMS TO BECOME MVFR LATER TONIGHT WITH RAIN.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 231725
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

CLOUD COVER MOVING NORTH FROM SOUTH DAKOTA AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MAINLY ON TRACK. STILL SUNNY NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES THERE TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S. THIS AFFECTS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...WITH DEWPOINTS
LOWERING NORTH WITH MIXING...AND MIN RH VALUES NORTH NOW EXPECTED
IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.

RADAR RETURNS AT BOWMAN ARE BECOMING STRONGER IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. THUS CHANCES OF RAIN BEGINNING IN
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES IN
TIMING EXPECTATIONS FOR RAIN...WITH AFTERNOON CHANCES FAR SOUTHWEST
AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND MOVING NORTHWARD GRADUALLY TOWARD EVENING
TO AROUND I-94 IN THE SOUTHWEST BUT NOT REACHING I-94 IN THE JAMES
VALLEY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SATELLITE LOOPS AND SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE LARGE CLOUD MASS
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
DAY. LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODELS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS MAKING THEIR
WAY NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE I-94 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY. LOW
CLOUDS IN HETTINGER HAVE SCATTERED OUT...BUT EXPECT THAT WITH TIME
THEY WILL COVER THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.

REGARDING RAIN CHANCES...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT FOR THE
MORNING HOURS AS PER THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. SHORT
TERM MODELS - INCLUDING THE NAM - INDICATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. A LOOK AT THE BOWMAN RADAR INDICATES LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND SUSPECT
RADAR IS PICKING UP ON MID CLOUDS AND/OR VIRGA IN THE AREA.
LIFTING GOING ON IN THE LOW/MID ATMOSPHERE BUT NOT ENOUGH YET TO
YIELD PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. THE GFS REMAINS VERY
AGGRESSIVE AND IS OVER- FORECASTING THE PRECIPITATION. MINOR
CHANGES TO AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES...BUT BASICALLY CHANCES ARE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-94...PERHAPS A BIT
BETTER FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARDS THE MEDORA/BEACH AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

BETTER LIFTING AND STRONGER FORCING BEGINS THIS EVENING.

RAISED TEMPERATURES A TAD IN THE FAR NORTH BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WAVE MOVING NORTH ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE RAIN
CHANCES TODAY. CURRENT RAP / HRRR SUGGEST ANY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
HOLD OFF FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS IN
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL MAINTAIN THAT
TIMING FOR THIS UPDATE. MAINLY BLENDED CURRENT CONDITIONS INTO
THE FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING OF RAIN
TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE INDICATE AN EVEN
FURTHER DELAY IN PRECIPITATION ONSET. THE EARLIER NAM AND GEM RUNS
KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THEIR LATEST RUNS. FURTHERMORE...THE OO UTC
RUNS OF THE WRF FURTHER INDICATE A DELAY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER EJECTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ALSO PUSHED BACK THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN...SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SHOULD BE THE COOL SPOT TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S...WHILE NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SEES A LITTLE MORE SUN AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE RAIN / THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES KEEP CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL DETAILS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY SOMEWHAT LOW. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL IN REGARDS TO QPF ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE NAM IS ON THE LOW END OF VALUES. THE
ECMWF IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A BLEND
OF SOLUTIONS. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND QPF ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF NORTH DAKOTA. INSTABILITY IS STILL NOT VERY
HIGH ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE KEPT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.
AS STATED EARLIER...MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL VARY ON MONDAY...AND
THIS ALSO INFLUENCES THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THEY PRODUCE. WILL
BUMP UP THE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ON MONDAY WITH MORE
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY THE GFS...BUT WILL KEEP THINGS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WE ARE STILL SHOWING THE HIGHEST
TOTALS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1.00 - 1.25
INCHES ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS
REMAIN IN THE NORTH WHERE WE HAVE 0.25 - 0.50 INCH THROUGH THAT
SAME TIME PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A BLENDED
MODEL SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY OVERALL IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
VFR AT KISN UNTIL AROUND 06Z WHEN MVFR CIGS FORECAST.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO MFVR CIGS AT KDIK/KBIS
AROUND 00Z WITH VCSH...AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN BY AROUND
04Z-06Z. KJMS TO BECOME MVFR LATER TONIGHT WITH RAIN.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 231725
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

CLOUD COVER MOVING NORTH FROM SOUTH DAKOTA AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MAINLY ON TRACK. STILL SUNNY NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES THERE TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S. THIS AFFECTS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...WITH DEWPOINTS
LOWERING NORTH WITH MIXING...AND MIN RH VALUES NORTH NOW EXPECTED
IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.

RADAR RETURNS AT BOWMAN ARE BECOMING STRONGER IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. THUS CHANCES OF RAIN BEGINNING IN
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES IN
TIMING EXPECTATIONS FOR RAIN...WITH AFTERNOON CHANCES FAR SOUTHWEST
AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND MOVING NORTHWARD GRADUALLY TOWARD EVENING
TO AROUND I-94 IN THE SOUTHWEST BUT NOT REACHING I-94 IN THE JAMES
VALLEY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SATELLITE LOOPS AND SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE LARGE CLOUD MASS
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
DAY. LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODELS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS MAKING THEIR
WAY NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE I-94 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY. LOW
CLOUDS IN HETTINGER HAVE SCATTERED OUT...BUT EXPECT THAT WITH TIME
THEY WILL COVER THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.

REGARDING RAIN CHANCES...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT FOR THE
MORNING HOURS AS PER THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. SHORT
TERM MODELS - INCLUDING THE NAM - INDICATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. A LOOK AT THE BOWMAN RADAR INDICATES LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND SUSPECT
RADAR IS PICKING UP ON MID CLOUDS AND/OR VIRGA IN THE AREA.
LIFTING GOING ON IN THE LOW/MID ATMOSPHERE BUT NOT ENOUGH YET TO
YIELD PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. THE GFS REMAINS VERY
AGGRESSIVE AND IS OVER- FORECASTING THE PRECIPITATION. MINOR
CHANGES TO AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES...BUT BASICALLY CHANCES ARE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-94...PERHAPS A BIT
BETTER FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARDS THE MEDORA/BEACH AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

BETTER LIFTING AND STRONGER FORCING BEGINS THIS EVENING.

RAISED TEMPERATURES A TAD IN THE FAR NORTH BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WAVE MOVING NORTH ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE RAIN
CHANCES TODAY. CURRENT RAP / HRRR SUGGEST ANY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
HOLD OFF FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS IN
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL MAINTAIN THAT
TIMING FOR THIS UPDATE. MAINLY BLENDED CURRENT CONDITIONS INTO
THE FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING OF RAIN
TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE INDICATE AN EVEN
FURTHER DELAY IN PRECIPITATION ONSET. THE EARLIER NAM AND GEM RUNS
KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THEIR LATEST RUNS. FURTHERMORE...THE OO UTC
RUNS OF THE WRF FURTHER INDICATE A DELAY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER EJECTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ALSO PUSHED BACK THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN...SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SHOULD BE THE COOL SPOT TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S...WHILE NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SEES A LITTLE MORE SUN AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE RAIN / THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES KEEP CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL DETAILS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY SOMEWHAT LOW. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL IN REGARDS TO QPF ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE NAM IS ON THE LOW END OF VALUES. THE
ECMWF IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A BLEND
OF SOLUTIONS. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND QPF ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF NORTH DAKOTA. INSTABILITY IS STILL NOT VERY
HIGH ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE KEPT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.
AS STATED EARLIER...MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL VARY ON MONDAY...AND
THIS ALSO INFLUENCES THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THEY PRODUCE. WILL
BUMP UP THE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ON MONDAY WITH MORE
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY THE GFS...BUT WILL KEEP THINGS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WE ARE STILL SHOWING THE HIGHEST
TOTALS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1.00 - 1.25
INCHES ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS
REMAIN IN THE NORTH WHERE WE HAVE 0.25 - 0.50 INCH THROUGH THAT
SAME TIME PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A BLENDED
MODEL SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY OVERALL IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
VFR AT KISN UNTIL AROUND 06Z WHEN MVFR CIGS FORECAST.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO MFVR CIGS AT KDIK/KBIS
AROUND 00Z WITH VCSH...AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN BY AROUND
04Z-06Z. KJMS TO BECOME MVFR LATER TONIGHT WITH RAIN.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 231725
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

CLOUD COVER MOVING NORTH FROM SOUTH DAKOTA AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MAINLY ON TRACK. STILL SUNNY NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES THERE TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S. THIS AFFECTS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...WITH DEWPOINTS
LOWERING NORTH WITH MIXING...AND MIN RH VALUES NORTH NOW EXPECTED
IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.

RADAR RETURNS AT BOWMAN ARE BECOMING STRONGER IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. THUS CHANCES OF RAIN BEGINNING IN
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES IN
TIMING EXPECTATIONS FOR RAIN...WITH AFTERNOON CHANCES FAR SOUTHWEST
AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND MOVING NORTHWARD GRADUALLY TOWARD EVENING
TO AROUND I-94 IN THE SOUTHWEST BUT NOT REACHING I-94 IN THE JAMES
VALLEY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SATELLITE LOOPS AND SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE LARGE CLOUD MASS
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
DAY. LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODELS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS MAKING THEIR
WAY NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE I-94 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY. LOW
CLOUDS IN HETTINGER HAVE SCATTERED OUT...BUT EXPECT THAT WITH TIME
THEY WILL COVER THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.

REGARDING RAIN CHANCES...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT FOR THE
MORNING HOURS AS PER THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. SHORT
TERM MODELS - INCLUDING THE NAM - INDICATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. A LOOK AT THE BOWMAN RADAR INDICATES LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND SUSPECT
RADAR IS PICKING UP ON MID CLOUDS AND/OR VIRGA IN THE AREA.
LIFTING GOING ON IN THE LOW/MID ATMOSPHERE BUT NOT ENOUGH YET TO
YIELD PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. THE GFS REMAINS VERY
AGGRESSIVE AND IS OVER- FORECASTING THE PRECIPITATION. MINOR
CHANGES TO AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES...BUT BASICALLY CHANCES ARE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-94...PERHAPS A BIT
BETTER FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARDS THE MEDORA/BEACH AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

BETTER LIFTING AND STRONGER FORCING BEGINS THIS EVENING.

RAISED TEMPERATURES A TAD IN THE FAR NORTH BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WAVE MOVING NORTH ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE RAIN
CHANCES TODAY. CURRENT RAP / HRRR SUGGEST ANY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
HOLD OFF FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS IN
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL MAINTAIN THAT
TIMING FOR THIS UPDATE. MAINLY BLENDED CURRENT CONDITIONS INTO
THE FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING OF RAIN
TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE INDICATE AN EVEN
FURTHER DELAY IN PRECIPITATION ONSET. THE EARLIER NAM AND GEM RUNS
KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THEIR LATEST RUNS. FURTHERMORE...THE OO UTC
RUNS OF THE WRF FURTHER INDICATE A DELAY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER EJECTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ALSO PUSHED BACK THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN...SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SHOULD BE THE COOL SPOT TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S...WHILE NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SEES A LITTLE MORE SUN AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE RAIN / THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES KEEP CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL DETAILS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY SOMEWHAT LOW. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL IN REGARDS TO QPF ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE NAM IS ON THE LOW END OF VALUES. THE
ECMWF IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A BLEND
OF SOLUTIONS. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND QPF ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF NORTH DAKOTA. INSTABILITY IS STILL NOT VERY
HIGH ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE KEPT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.
AS STATED EARLIER...MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL VARY ON MONDAY...AND
THIS ALSO INFLUENCES THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THEY PRODUCE. WILL
BUMP UP THE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ON MONDAY WITH MORE
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY THE GFS...BUT WILL KEEP THINGS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WE ARE STILL SHOWING THE HIGHEST
TOTALS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1.00 - 1.25
INCHES ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS
REMAIN IN THE NORTH WHERE WE HAVE 0.25 - 0.50 INCH THROUGH THAT
SAME TIME PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A BLENDED
MODEL SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY OVERALL IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
VFR AT KISN UNTIL AROUND 06Z WHEN MVFR CIGS FORECAST.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO MFVR CIGS AT KDIK/KBIS
AROUND 00Z WITH VCSH...AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN BY AROUND
04Z-06Z. KJMS TO BECOME MVFR LATER TONIGHT WITH RAIN.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 231725
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

CLOUD COVER MOVING NORTH FROM SOUTH DAKOTA AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MAINLY ON TRACK. STILL SUNNY NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES THERE TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S. THIS AFFECTS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...WITH DEWPOINTS
LOWERING NORTH WITH MIXING...AND MIN RH VALUES NORTH NOW EXPECTED
IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.

RADAR RETURNS AT BOWMAN ARE BECOMING STRONGER IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. THUS CHANCES OF RAIN BEGINNING IN
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES IN
TIMING EXPECTATIONS FOR RAIN...WITH AFTERNOON CHANCES FAR SOUTHWEST
AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND MOVING NORTHWARD GRADUALLY TOWARD EVENING
TO AROUND I-94 IN THE SOUTHWEST BUT NOT REACHING I-94 IN THE JAMES
VALLEY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SATELLITE LOOPS AND SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE LARGE CLOUD MASS
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
DAY. LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODELS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS MAKING THEIR
WAY NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE I-94 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY. LOW
CLOUDS IN HETTINGER HAVE SCATTERED OUT...BUT EXPECT THAT WITH TIME
THEY WILL COVER THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.

REGARDING RAIN CHANCES...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT FOR THE
MORNING HOURS AS PER THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. SHORT
TERM MODELS - INCLUDING THE NAM - INDICATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. A LOOK AT THE BOWMAN RADAR INDICATES LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND SUSPECT
RADAR IS PICKING UP ON MID CLOUDS AND/OR VIRGA IN THE AREA.
LIFTING GOING ON IN THE LOW/MID ATMOSPHERE BUT NOT ENOUGH YET TO
YIELD PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. THE GFS REMAINS VERY
AGGRESSIVE AND IS OVER- FORECASTING THE PRECIPITATION. MINOR
CHANGES TO AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES...BUT BASICALLY CHANCES ARE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-94...PERHAPS A BIT
BETTER FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARDS THE MEDORA/BEACH AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

BETTER LIFTING AND STRONGER FORCING BEGINS THIS EVENING.

RAISED TEMPERATURES A TAD IN THE FAR NORTH BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WAVE MOVING NORTH ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE RAIN
CHANCES TODAY. CURRENT RAP / HRRR SUGGEST ANY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
HOLD OFF FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS IN
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL MAINTAIN THAT
TIMING FOR THIS UPDATE. MAINLY BLENDED CURRENT CONDITIONS INTO
THE FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING OF RAIN
TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE INDICATE AN EVEN
FURTHER DELAY IN PRECIPITATION ONSET. THE EARLIER NAM AND GEM RUNS
KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THEIR LATEST RUNS. FURTHERMORE...THE OO UTC
RUNS OF THE WRF FURTHER INDICATE A DELAY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER EJECTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ALSO PUSHED BACK THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN...SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SHOULD BE THE COOL SPOT TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S...WHILE NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SEES A LITTLE MORE SUN AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE RAIN / THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES KEEP CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL DETAILS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY SOMEWHAT LOW. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL IN REGARDS TO QPF ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE NAM IS ON THE LOW END OF VALUES. THE
ECMWF IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A BLEND
OF SOLUTIONS. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND QPF ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF NORTH DAKOTA. INSTABILITY IS STILL NOT VERY
HIGH ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE KEPT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.
AS STATED EARLIER...MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL VARY ON MONDAY...AND
THIS ALSO INFLUENCES THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THEY PRODUCE. WILL
BUMP UP THE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ON MONDAY WITH MORE
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY THE GFS...BUT WILL KEEP THINGS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WE ARE STILL SHOWING THE HIGHEST
TOTALS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1.00 - 1.25
INCHES ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS
REMAIN IN THE NORTH WHERE WE HAVE 0.25 - 0.50 INCH THROUGH THAT
SAME TIME PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A BLENDED
MODEL SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY OVERALL IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
VFR AT KISN UNTIL AROUND 06Z WHEN MVFR CIGS FORECAST.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO MFVR CIGS AT KDIK/KBIS
AROUND 00Z WITH VCSH...AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN BY AROUND
04Z-06Z. KJMS TO BECOME MVFR LATER TONIGHT WITH RAIN.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KFGF 231440
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

STILL LOOKING AT SOME POSSIBLE SPRINKLES ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TODAY...BUT REMAINING SOUTH OF HWY 2. RAP 850MB-700MB RELATIVE
HUMIDITY APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS CLOUD SHIELD AND
USED FOR TIMING PURPOSES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S
(POSSIBLY 80F) NORTH OF HWY 2 WITH FULL SOLAR...WITH COOLER VALUES
NEAR 70F WITH CLOUDS. DID RAISE MAX TEMPS A BIT NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISSUES WILL BE HOW FAR AND WHEN WILL THE PRECIP SPREAD NORTH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER UTAH/N ARIZONA THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS..AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME MID CLOUDS IN THE
SRN FCST AREA THIS AFTN. OF INTEREST IS A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS IN
THE SIOUX FALLS AREA. HRRR AND A FEW OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS DO
BRING A FEW SPITS OF PRECIP NORTHEAST INTO WCNTRL MN (ALEX-ST
CLOUD AREA) LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. TO BLEND WITH WFO MPX I
DID INSERT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OTTER TAIL AND WADENA COUNTIES LATE
MORNING INTO MID AFTN. BASED ON MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ANY SHOWERS
WILL NOT REACH THE SD/ND BORDER AREA TIL LATE THIS AFTN AND
TRIMMED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY. TONIGHT WILL SEE A SHOWER RICK
IN THE SOUTH BUT STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SLOWING DOWN ANY NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF MOISTURE.

SUNDAY WILL SEE DEEPER MOISTURE START TO MOVE INTO SE ND AND THEN
SPREAD NORTH DURING THE DAY. THUS HIGHER POPS...MOSTLY SOUTHERN
FCST AREA. GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER THAN ECMWF/GEM WHICH KEEP
DVL-GFK AREA DRY THRU SUN EVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RAIN CHANCES SPREAD NORTH SUN NIGHT WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
AS UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SD INTO CNTRL/SRN
MN. HIGH PRESSURE DOES REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SOME
MODELS WANT TO KEEP FAR NW FCST AREA DRY EVEN MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
WENT WITH SUPERBLEND OF MODELS AND IDEA OF CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY SE 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT VERY WEAK...SO DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
SUN NIGHT THRU MON IN THE GRIDS. PRECIP BEGINS TO MOVE EAST MON
NIGHT. AS FOR HOW MUCH RAINFALL....MOST AREAS IN THE ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS INCH RANGE GFK SOUTH AND EAST AND LESS NORTHWEST.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER FEATURES BECOME OUT OF
PHASE WHEN COMPARING ECMWF AND GFS...UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY`S
SOLUTION. ECMWF HAS LONGER WAVES WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW MID
WEEK WHILE GFS HANGS ON TO A DIGGING SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE BORDER
WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE KEY TO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS.
LATEST EXTENDED SUPERBLEND SOLUTION CONTINUES WITH POPS COVERING
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA MOST OF THE TIME...ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO
SMOOTH OUT MINUTE AREAS OF PCPN/NO PCPN WITHIN THE FGF CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR THRU 12Z SUN. EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TODAY...THICKEST IN THE SRN RRV AND WCNTRL MN. SOUTH
WINDS GENERALLY NR 10 KTS. NO PRECIP PUT IN THE TAFS THRU 12Z SUN
AS BEST CHC IS BEYOND THEN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 231440
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

STILL LOOKING AT SOME POSSIBLE SPRINKLES ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TODAY...BUT REMAINING SOUTH OF HWY 2. RAP 850MB-700MB RELATIVE
HUMIDITY APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS CLOUD SHIELD AND
USED FOR TIMING PURPOSES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S
(POSSIBLY 80F) NORTH OF HWY 2 WITH FULL SOLAR...WITH COOLER VALUES
NEAR 70F WITH CLOUDS. DID RAISE MAX TEMPS A BIT NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISSUES WILL BE HOW FAR AND WHEN WILL THE PRECIP SPREAD NORTH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER UTAH/N ARIZONA THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS..AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME MID CLOUDS IN THE
SRN FCST AREA THIS AFTN. OF INTEREST IS A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS IN
THE SIOUX FALLS AREA. HRRR AND A FEW OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS DO
BRING A FEW SPITS OF PRECIP NORTHEAST INTO WCNTRL MN (ALEX-ST
CLOUD AREA) LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. TO BLEND WITH WFO MPX I
DID INSERT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OTTER TAIL AND WADENA COUNTIES LATE
MORNING INTO MID AFTN. BASED ON MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ANY SHOWERS
WILL NOT REACH THE SD/ND BORDER AREA TIL LATE THIS AFTN AND
TRIMMED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY. TONIGHT WILL SEE A SHOWER RICK
IN THE SOUTH BUT STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SLOWING DOWN ANY NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF MOISTURE.

SUNDAY WILL SEE DEEPER MOISTURE START TO MOVE INTO SE ND AND THEN
SPREAD NORTH DURING THE DAY. THUS HIGHER POPS...MOSTLY SOUTHERN
FCST AREA. GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER THAN ECMWF/GEM WHICH KEEP
DVL-GFK AREA DRY THRU SUN EVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RAIN CHANCES SPREAD NORTH SUN NIGHT WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
AS UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SD INTO CNTRL/SRN
MN. HIGH PRESSURE DOES REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SOME
MODELS WANT TO KEEP FAR NW FCST AREA DRY EVEN MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
WENT WITH SUPERBLEND OF MODELS AND IDEA OF CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY SE 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT VERY WEAK...SO DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
SUN NIGHT THRU MON IN THE GRIDS. PRECIP BEGINS TO MOVE EAST MON
NIGHT. AS FOR HOW MUCH RAINFALL....MOST AREAS IN THE ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS INCH RANGE GFK SOUTH AND EAST AND LESS NORTHWEST.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER FEATURES BECOME OUT OF
PHASE WHEN COMPARING ECMWF AND GFS...UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY`S
SOLUTION. ECMWF HAS LONGER WAVES WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW MID
WEEK WHILE GFS HANGS ON TO A DIGGING SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE BORDER
WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE KEY TO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS.
LATEST EXTENDED SUPERBLEND SOLUTION CONTINUES WITH POPS COVERING
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA MOST OF THE TIME...ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO
SMOOTH OUT MINUTE AREAS OF PCPN/NO PCPN WITHIN THE FGF CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR THRU 12Z SUN. EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TODAY...THICKEST IN THE SRN RRV AND WCNTRL MN. SOUTH
WINDS GENERALLY NR 10 KTS. NO PRECIP PUT IN THE TAFS THRU 12Z SUN
AS BEST CHC IS BEYOND THEN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 231440
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

STILL LOOKING AT SOME POSSIBLE SPRINKLES ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TODAY...BUT REMAINING SOUTH OF HWY 2. RAP 850MB-700MB RELATIVE
HUMIDITY APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS CLOUD SHIELD AND
USED FOR TIMING PURPOSES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S
(POSSIBLY 80F) NORTH OF HWY 2 WITH FULL SOLAR...WITH COOLER VALUES
NEAR 70F WITH CLOUDS. DID RAISE MAX TEMPS A BIT NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISSUES WILL BE HOW FAR AND WHEN WILL THE PRECIP SPREAD NORTH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER UTAH/N ARIZONA THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS..AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME MID CLOUDS IN THE
SRN FCST AREA THIS AFTN. OF INTEREST IS A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS IN
THE SIOUX FALLS AREA. HRRR AND A FEW OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS DO
BRING A FEW SPITS OF PRECIP NORTHEAST INTO WCNTRL MN (ALEX-ST
CLOUD AREA) LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. TO BLEND WITH WFO MPX I
DID INSERT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OTTER TAIL AND WADENA COUNTIES LATE
MORNING INTO MID AFTN. BASED ON MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ANY SHOWERS
WILL NOT REACH THE SD/ND BORDER AREA TIL LATE THIS AFTN AND
TRIMMED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY. TONIGHT WILL SEE A SHOWER RICK
IN THE SOUTH BUT STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SLOWING DOWN ANY NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF MOISTURE.

SUNDAY WILL SEE DEEPER MOISTURE START TO MOVE INTO SE ND AND THEN
SPREAD NORTH DURING THE DAY. THUS HIGHER POPS...MOSTLY SOUTHERN
FCST AREA. GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER THAN ECMWF/GEM WHICH KEEP
DVL-GFK AREA DRY THRU SUN EVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RAIN CHANCES SPREAD NORTH SUN NIGHT WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
AS UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SD INTO CNTRL/SRN
MN. HIGH PRESSURE DOES REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SOME
MODELS WANT TO KEEP FAR NW FCST AREA DRY EVEN MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
WENT WITH SUPERBLEND OF MODELS AND IDEA OF CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY SE 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT VERY WEAK...SO DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
SUN NIGHT THRU MON IN THE GRIDS. PRECIP BEGINS TO MOVE EAST MON
NIGHT. AS FOR HOW MUCH RAINFALL....MOST AREAS IN THE ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS INCH RANGE GFK SOUTH AND EAST AND LESS NORTHWEST.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER FEATURES BECOME OUT OF
PHASE WHEN COMPARING ECMWF AND GFS...UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY`S
SOLUTION. ECMWF HAS LONGER WAVES WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW MID
WEEK WHILE GFS HANGS ON TO A DIGGING SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE BORDER
WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE KEY TO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS.
LATEST EXTENDED SUPERBLEND SOLUTION CONTINUES WITH POPS COVERING
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA MOST OF THE TIME...ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO
SMOOTH OUT MINUTE AREAS OF PCPN/NO PCPN WITHIN THE FGF CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR THRU 12Z SUN. EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TODAY...THICKEST IN THE SRN RRV AND WCNTRL MN. SOUTH
WINDS GENERALLY NR 10 KTS. NO PRECIP PUT IN THE TAFS THRU 12Z SUN
AS BEST CHC IS BEYOND THEN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 231440
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

STILL LOOKING AT SOME POSSIBLE SPRINKLES ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TODAY...BUT REMAINING SOUTH OF HWY 2. RAP 850MB-700MB RELATIVE
HUMIDITY APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS CLOUD SHIELD AND
USED FOR TIMING PURPOSES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S
(POSSIBLY 80F) NORTH OF HWY 2 WITH FULL SOLAR...WITH COOLER VALUES
NEAR 70F WITH CLOUDS. DID RAISE MAX TEMPS A BIT NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISSUES WILL BE HOW FAR AND WHEN WILL THE PRECIP SPREAD NORTH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER UTAH/N ARIZONA THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS..AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME MID CLOUDS IN THE
SRN FCST AREA THIS AFTN. OF INTEREST IS A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS IN
THE SIOUX FALLS AREA. HRRR AND A FEW OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS DO
BRING A FEW SPITS OF PRECIP NORTHEAST INTO WCNTRL MN (ALEX-ST
CLOUD AREA) LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. TO BLEND WITH WFO MPX I
DID INSERT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OTTER TAIL AND WADENA COUNTIES LATE
MORNING INTO MID AFTN. BASED ON MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ANY SHOWERS
WILL NOT REACH THE SD/ND BORDER AREA TIL LATE THIS AFTN AND
TRIMMED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY. TONIGHT WILL SEE A SHOWER RICK
IN THE SOUTH BUT STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SLOWING DOWN ANY NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF MOISTURE.

SUNDAY WILL SEE DEEPER MOISTURE START TO MOVE INTO SE ND AND THEN
SPREAD NORTH DURING THE DAY. THUS HIGHER POPS...MOSTLY SOUTHERN
FCST AREA. GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER THAN ECMWF/GEM WHICH KEEP
DVL-GFK AREA DRY THRU SUN EVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RAIN CHANCES SPREAD NORTH SUN NIGHT WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
AS UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SD INTO CNTRL/SRN
MN. HIGH PRESSURE DOES REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SOME
MODELS WANT TO KEEP FAR NW FCST AREA DRY EVEN MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
WENT WITH SUPERBLEND OF MODELS AND IDEA OF CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY SE 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT VERY WEAK...SO DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
SUN NIGHT THRU MON IN THE GRIDS. PRECIP BEGINS TO MOVE EAST MON
NIGHT. AS FOR HOW MUCH RAINFALL....MOST AREAS IN THE ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS INCH RANGE GFK SOUTH AND EAST AND LESS NORTHWEST.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER FEATURES BECOME OUT OF
PHASE WHEN COMPARING ECMWF AND GFS...UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY`S
SOLUTION. ECMWF HAS LONGER WAVES WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW MID
WEEK WHILE GFS HANGS ON TO A DIGGING SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE BORDER
WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE KEY TO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS.
LATEST EXTENDED SUPERBLEND SOLUTION CONTINUES WITH POPS COVERING
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA MOST OF THE TIME...ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO
SMOOTH OUT MINUTE AREAS OF PCPN/NO PCPN WITHIN THE FGF CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR THRU 12Z SUN. EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TODAY...THICKEST IN THE SRN RRV AND WCNTRL MN. SOUTH
WINDS GENERALLY NR 10 KTS. NO PRECIP PUT IN THE TAFS THRU 12Z SUN
AS BEST CHC IS BEYOND THEN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 231440
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

STILL LOOKING AT SOME POSSIBLE SPRINKLES ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TODAY...BUT REMAINING SOUTH OF HWY 2. RAP 850MB-700MB RELATIVE
HUMIDITY APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS CLOUD SHIELD AND
USED FOR TIMING PURPOSES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S
(POSSIBLY 80F) NORTH OF HWY 2 WITH FULL SOLAR...WITH COOLER VALUES
NEAR 70F WITH CLOUDS. DID RAISE MAX TEMPS A BIT NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISSUES WILL BE HOW FAR AND WHEN WILL THE PRECIP SPREAD NORTH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER UTAH/N ARIZONA THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS..AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME MID CLOUDS IN THE
SRN FCST AREA THIS AFTN. OF INTEREST IS A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS IN
THE SIOUX FALLS AREA. HRRR AND A FEW OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS DO
BRING A FEW SPITS OF PRECIP NORTHEAST INTO WCNTRL MN (ALEX-ST
CLOUD AREA) LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. TO BLEND WITH WFO MPX I
DID INSERT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OTTER TAIL AND WADENA COUNTIES LATE
MORNING INTO MID AFTN. BASED ON MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ANY SHOWERS
WILL NOT REACH THE SD/ND BORDER AREA TIL LATE THIS AFTN AND
TRIMMED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY. TONIGHT WILL SEE A SHOWER RICK
IN THE SOUTH BUT STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SLOWING DOWN ANY NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF MOISTURE.

SUNDAY WILL SEE DEEPER MOISTURE START TO MOVE INTO SE ND AND THEN
SPREAD NORTH DURING THE DAY. THUS HIGHER POPS...MOSTLY SOUTHERN
FCST AREA. GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER THAN ECMWF/GEM WHICH KEEP
DVL-GFK AREA DRY THRU SUN EVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RAIN CHANCES SPREAD NORTH SUN NIGHT WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
AS UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SD INTO CNTRL/SRN
MN. HIGH PRESSURE DOES REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SOME
MODELS WANT TO KEEP FAR NW FCST AREA DRY EVEN MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
WENT WITH SUPERBLEND OF MODELS AND IDEA OF CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY SE 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT VERY WEAK...SO DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
SUN NIGHT THRU MON IN THE GRIDS. PRECIP BEGINS TO MOVE EAST MON
NIGHT. AS FOR HOW MUCH RAINFALL....MOST AREAS IN THE ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS INCH RANGE GFK SOUTH AND EAST AND LESS NORTHWEST.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER FEATURES BECOME OUT OF
PHASE WHEN COMPARING ECMWF AND GFS...UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY`S
SOLUTION. ECMWF HAS LONGER WAVES WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW MID
WEEK WHILE GFS HANGS ON TO A DIGGING SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE BORDER
WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE KEY TO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS.
LATEST EXTENDED SUPERBLEND SOLUTION CONTINUES WITH POPS COVERING
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA MOST OF THE TIME...ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO
SMOOTH OUT MINUTE AREAS OF PCPN/NO PCPN WITHIN THE FGF CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR THRU 12Z SUN. EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TODAY...THICKEST IN THE SRN RRV AND WCNTRL MN. SOUTH
WINDS GENERALLY NR 10 KTS. NO PRECIP PUT IN THE TAFS THRU 12Z SUN
AS BEST CHC IS BEYOND THEN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KBIS 231438
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
938 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SATELLITE LOOPS AND SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE LARGE CLOUD MASS
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
DAY. LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODELS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS MAKING THEIR
WAY NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE I-94 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY. LOW
CLOUDS IN HETTINGER HAVE SCATTERED OUT...BUT EXPECT THAT WITH TIME
THEY WILL COVER THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.

REGARDING RAIN CHANCES...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT FOR THE
MORNING HOURS AS PER THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. SHORT
TERM MODELS - INCLUDING THE NAM - INDICATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. A LOOK AT THE BOWMAN RADAR INDICATES LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND SUSPECT
RADAR IS PICKING UP ON MID CLOUDS AND/OR VIRGA IN THE AREA.
LIFTING GOING ON IN THE LOW/MID ATMOSPHERE BUT NOT ENOUGH YET TO
YIELD PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. THE GFS REMAINS VERY
AGGRESSIVE AND IS OVER- FORECASTING THE PRECIPITATION. MINOR
CHANGES TO AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES...BUT BASICALLY CHANCES ARE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-94...PERHAPS A BIT
BETTER FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARDS THE MEDORA/BEACH AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

BETTER LIFTING AND STRONGER FORCING BEGINS THIS EVENING.

RAISED TEMPERATURES A TAD IN THE FAR NORTH BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WAVE MOVING NORTH ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE RAIN
CHANCES TODAY. CURRENT RAP / HRRR SUGGEST ANY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
HOLD OFF FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS IN
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL MAINTAIN THAT
TIMING FOR THIS UPDATE. MAINLY BLENDED CURRENT CONDITIONS INTO
THE FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING OF RAIN
TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE INDICATE AN EVEN
FURTHER DELAY IN PRECIPITATION ONSET. THE EARLIER NAM AND GEM RUNS
KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THEIR LATEST RUNS. FURTHERMORE...THE OO UTC
RUNS OF THE WRF FURTHER INDICATE A DELAY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER EJECTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ALSO PUSHED BACK THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN...SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SHOULD BE THE COOL SPOT TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S...WHILE NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SEES A LITTLE MORE SUN AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE RAIN / THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES KEEP CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL DETAILS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY SOMEWHAT LOW. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL IN REGARDS TO QPF ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE NAM IS ON THE LOW END OF VALUES. THE
ECMWF IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A BLEND
OF SOLUTIONS. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND QPF ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF NORTH DAKOTA. INSTABILITY IS STILL NOT VERY
HIGH ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE KEPT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.
AS STATED EARLIER...MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL VARY ON MONDAY...AND
THIS ALSO INFLUENCES THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THEY PRODUCE. WILL
BUMP UP THE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ON MONDAY WITH MORE
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY THE GFS...BUT WILL KEEP THINGS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WE ARE STILL SHOWING THE HIGHEST
TOTALS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1.00 - 1.25
INCHES ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS
REMAIN IN THE NORTH WHERE WE HAVE 0.25 - 0.50 INCH THROUGH THAT
SAME TIME PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A BLENDED
MODEL SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY OVERALL IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO MFVR WITH RAIN AT
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN CLOSER
TO 12Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KBIS 231438
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
938 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SATELLITE LOOPS AND SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE LARGE CLOUD MASS
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
DAY. LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODELS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS MAKING THEIR
WAY NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE I-94 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY. LOW
CLOUDS IN HETTINGER HAVE SCATTERED OUT...BUT EXPECT THAT WITH TIME
THEY WILL COVER THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.

REGARDING RAIN CHANCES...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT FOR THE
MORNING HOURS AS PER THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. SHORT
TERM MODELS - INCLUDING THE NAM - INDICATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. A LOOK AT THE BOWMAN RADAR INDICATES LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND SUSPECT
RADAR IS PICKING UP ON MID CLOUDS AND/OR VIRGA IN THE AREA.
LIFTING GOING ON IN THE LOW/MID ATMOSPHERE BUT NOT ENOUGH YET TO
YIELD PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. THE GFS REMAINS VERY
AGGRESSIVE AND IS OVER- FORECASTING THE PRECIPITATION. MINOR
CHANGES TO AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES...BUT BASICALLY CHANCES ARE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-94...PERHAPS A BIT
BETTER FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARDS THE MEDORA/BEACH AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

BETTER LIFTING AND STRONGER FORCING BEGINS THIS EVENING.

RAISED TEMPERATURES A TAD IN THE FAR NORTH BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WAVE MOVING NORTH ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE RAIN
CHANCES TODAY. CURRENT RAP / HRRR SUGGEST ANY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
HOLD OFF FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS IN
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL MAINTAIN THAT
TIMING FOR THIS UPDATE. MAINLY BLENDED CURRENT CONDITIONS INTO
THE FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING OF RAIN
TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE INDICATE AN EVEN
FURTHER DELAY IN PRECIPITATION ONSET. THE EARLIER NAM AND GEM RUNS
KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THEIR LATEST RUNS. FURTHERMORE...THE OO UTC
RUNS OF THE WRF FURTHER INDICATE A DELAY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER EJECTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ALSO PUSHED BACK THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN...SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SHOULD BE THE COOL SPOT TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S...WHILE NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SEES A LITTLE MORE SUN AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE RAIN / THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES KEEP CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL DETAILS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY SOMEWHAT LOW. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL IN REGARDS TO QPF ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE NAM IS ON THE LOW END OF VALUES. THE
ECMWF IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A BLEND
OF SOLUTIONS. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND QPF ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF NORTH DAKOTA. INSTABILITY IS STILL NOT VERY
HIGH ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE KEPT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.
AS STATED EARLIER...MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL VARY ON MONDAY...AND
THIS ALSO INFLUENCES THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THEY PRODUCE. WILL
BUMP UP THE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ON MONDAY WITH MORE
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY THE GFS...BUT WILL KEEP THINGS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WE ARE STILL SHOWING THE HIGHEST
TOTALS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1.00 - 1.25
INCHES ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS
REMAIN IN THE NORTH WHERE WE HAVE 0.25 - 0.50 INCH THROUGH THAT
SAME TIME PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A BLENDED
MODEL SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY OVERALL IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO MFVR WITH RAIN AT
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN CLOSER
TO 12Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KBIS 231438
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
938 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SATELLITE LOOPS AND SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE LARGE CLOUD MASS
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
DAY. LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODELS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS MAKING THEIR
WAY NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE I-94 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY. LOW
CLOUDS IN HETTINGER HAVE SCATTERED OUT...BUT EXPECT THAT WITH TIME
THEY WILL COVER THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.

REGARDING RAIN CHANCES...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT FOR THE
MORNING HOURS AS PER THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. SHORT
TERM MODELS - INCLUDING THE NAM - INDICATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. A LOOK AT THE BOWMAN RADAR INDICATES LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND SUSPECT
RADAR IS PICKING UP ON MID CLOUDS AND/OR VIRGA IN THE AREA.
LIFTING GOING ON IN THE LOW/MID ATMOSPHERE BUT NOT ENOUGH YET TO
YIELD PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. THE GFS REMAINS VERY
AGGRESSIVE AND IS OVER- FORECASTING THE PRECIPITATION. MINOR
CHANGES TO AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES...BUT BASICALLY CHANCES ARE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-94...PERHAPS A BIT
BETTER FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARDS THE MEDORA/BEACH AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

BETTER LIFTING AND STRONGER FORCING BEGINS THIS EVENING.

RAISED TEMPERATURES A TAD IN THE FAR NORTH BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WAVE MOVING NORTH ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE RAIN
CHANCES TODAY. CURRENT RAP / HRRR SUGGEST ANY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
HOLD OFF FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS IN
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL MAINTAIN THAT
TIMING FOR THIS UPDATE. MAINLY BLENDED CURRENT CONDITIONS INTO
THE FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING OF RAIN
TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE INDICATE AN EVEN
FURTHER DELAY IN PRECIPITATION ONSET. THE EARLIER NAM AND GEM RUNS
KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THEIR LATEST RUNS. FURTHERMORE...THE OO UTC
RUNS OF THE WRF FURTHER INDICATE A DELAY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER EJECTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ALSO PUSHED BACK THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN...SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SHOULD BE THE COOL SPOT TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S...WHILE NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SEES A LITTLE MORE SUN AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE RAIN / THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES KEEP CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL DETAILS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY SOMEWHAT LOW. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL IN REGARDS TO QPF ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE NAM IS ON THE LOW END OF VALUES. THE
ECMWF IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A BLEND
OF SOLUTIONS. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND QPF ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF NORTH DAKOTA. INSTABILITY IS STILL NOT VERY
HIGH ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE KEPT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.
AS STATED EARLIER...MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL VARY ON MONDAY...AND
THIS ALSO INFLUENCES THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THEY PRODUCE. WILL
BUMP UP THE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ON MONDAY WITH MORE
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY THE GFS...BUT WILL KEEP THINGS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WE ARE STILL SHOWING THE HIGHEST
TOTALS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1.00 - 1.25
INCHES ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS
REMAIN IN THE NORTH WHERE WE HAVE 0.25 - 0.50 INCH THROUGH THAT
SAME TIME PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A BLENDED
MODEL SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY OVERALL IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO MFVR WITH RAIN AT
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN CLOSER
TO 12Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KFGF 231211
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
711 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HRRR WAS RIGHT ON THE MONEY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING
NORTHEAST THRU ECNTRL/SE SD INTO SW MN. THESE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW THEY HOLD TOGETHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISSUES WILL BE HOW FAR AND WHEN WILL THE PRECIP SPREAD NORTH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER UTAH/N ARIZONA THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS..AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME MID CLOUDS IN THE
SRN FCST AREA THIS AFTN. OF INTEREST IS A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS IN
THE SIOUX FALLS AREA. HRRR AND A FEW OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS DO
BRING A FEW SPITS OF PRECIP NORTHEAST INTO WCNTRL MN (ALEX-ST
CLOUD AREA) LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. TO BLEND WITH WFO MPX I
DID INSERT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OTTER TAIL AND WADENA COUNTIES LATE
MORNING INTO MID AFTN. BASED ON MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ANY SHOWERS
WILL NOT REACH THE SD/ND BORDER AREA TIL LATE THIS AFTN AND
TRIMMED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY. TONIGHT WILL SEE A SHOWER RICK
IN THE SOUTH BUT STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SLOWING DOWN ANY NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF MOISTURE.

SUNDAY WILL SEE DEEPER MOISTURE START TO MOVE INTO SE ND AND THEN
SPREAD NORTH DURING THE DAY. THUS HIGHER POPS...MOSTLY SOUTHERN
FCST AREA. GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER THAN ECMWF/GEM WHICH KEEP
DVL-GFK AREA DRY THRU SUN EVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RAIN CHANCES SPREAD NORTH SUN NIGHT WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
AS UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SD INTO CNTRL/SRN
MN. HIGH PRESSURE DOES REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SOME
MODELS WANT TO KEEP FAR NW FCST AREA DRY EVEN MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
WENT WITH SUPERBLEND OF MODELS AND IDEA OF CATEGORIAL POPS FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY SE 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT VERY WEAK...SO DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
SUN NIGHT THRU MON IN THE GRIDS. PRECIP BEGINS TO MOVE EAST MON
NIGHT. AS FOR HOW MUCH RAINFALL....MOST AREAS IN THE ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS INCH RANGE GFK SOUTH AND EAST AND LESS NORTHWEST.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER FEATURES BECOME OUT OF
PHASE WHEN COMPARING ECMWF AND GFS...UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY`S
SOLUTION. ECMWF HAS LONGER WAVES WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW MID
WEEK WHILE GFS HANGS ON TO A DIGGING SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE BORDER
WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE KEY TO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS.
LATEST EXTENDED SUPERBLEND SOLUTION CONTINUES WITH POPS COVERING
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA MOST OF THE TIME...ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO
SMOOTH OUT MINUTE AREAS OF PCPN/NO PCPN WITHIN THE FGF CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR THRU 12Z SUN. EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TODAY...THICKEST IN THE SRN RRV AND WCNTRL MN. SOUTH
WINDS GENERALLY NR 10 KTS. NO PRECIP PUT IN THE TAFS THRU 12Z SUN
AS BEST CHC IS BEYOND THEN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 231211
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
711 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HRRR WAS RIGHT ON THE MONEY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING
NORTHEAST THRU ECNTRL/SE SD INTO SW MN. THESE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW THEY HOLD TOGETHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISSUES WILL BE HOW FAR AND WHEN WILL THE PRECIP SPREAD NORTH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER UTAH/N ARIZONA THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS..AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME MID CLOUDS IN THE
SRN FCST AREA THIS AFTN. OF INTEREST IS A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS IN
THE SIOUX FALLS AREA. HRRR AND A FEW OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS DO
BRING A FEW SPITS OF PRECIP NORTHEAST INTO WCNTRL MN (ALEX-ST
CLOUD AREA) LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. TO BLEND WITH WFO MPX I
DID INSERT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OTTER TAIL AND WADENA COUNTIES LATE
MORNING INTO MID AFTN. BASED ON MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ANY SHOWERS
WILL NOT REACH THE SD/ND BORDER AREA TIL LATE THIS AFTN AND
TRIMMED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY. TONIGHT WILL SEE A SHOWER RICK
IN THE SOUTH BUT STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SLOWING DOWN ANY NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF MOISTURE.

SUNDAY WILL SEE DEEPER MOISTURE START TO MOVE INTO SE ND AND THEN
SPREAD NORTH DURING THE DAY. THUS HIGHER POPS...MOSTLY SOUTHERN
FCST AREA. GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER THAN ECMWF/GEM WHICH KEEP
DVL-GFK AREA DRY THRU SUN EVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RAIN CHANCES SPREAD NORTH SUN NIGHT WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
AS UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SD INTO CNTRL/SRN
MN. HIGH PRESSURE DOES REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SOME
MODELS WANT TO KEEP FAR NW FCST AREA DRY EVEN MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
WENT WITH SUPERBLEND OF MODELS AND IDEA OF CATEGORIAL POPS FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY SE 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT VERY WEAK...SO DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
SUN NIGHT THRU MON IN THE GRIDS. PRECIP BEGINS TO MOVE EAST MON
NIGHT. AS FOR HOW MUCH RAINFALL....MOST AREAS IN THE ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS INCH RANGE GFK SOUTH AND EAST AND LESS NORTHWEST.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER FEATURES BECOME OUT OF
PHASE WHEN COMPARING ECMWF AND GFS...UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY`S
SOLUTION. ECMWF HAS LONGER WAVES WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW MID
WEEK WHILE GFS HANGS ON TO A DIGGING SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE BORDER
WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE KEY TO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS.
LATEST EXTENDED SUPERBLEND SOLUTION CONTINUES WITH POPS COVERING
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA MOST OF THE TIME...ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO
SMOOTH OUT MINUTE AREAS OF PCPN/NO PCPN WITHIN THE FGF CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR THRU 12Z SUN. EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TODAY...THICKEST IN THE SRN RRV AND WCNTRL MN. SOUTH
WINDS GENERALLY NR 10 KTS. NO PRECIP PUT IN THE TAFS THRU 12Z SUN
AS BEST CHC IS BEYOND THEN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE



000
FXUS63 KBIS 231123
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
623 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WAVE MOVING NORTH ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE RAIN
CHANCES TODAY. CURRENT RAP / HRRR SUGGEST ANY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
HOLD OFF FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS IN
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL MAINTAIN THAT
TIMING FOR THIS UPDATE. MAINLY BLENDED CURRENT CONDITIONS INTO
THE FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING OF RAIN
TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE INDICATE AN EVEN
FURTHER DELAY IN PRECIPITATION ONSET. THE EARLIER NAM AND GEM RUNS
KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THEIR LATEST RUNS. FURTHERMORE...THE OO UTC
RUNS OF THE WRF FURTHER INDICATE A DELAY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER EJECTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ALSO PUSHED BACK THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN...SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SHOULD BE THE COOL SPOT TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S...WHILE NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SEES A LITTLE MORE SUN AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE RAIN / THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES KEEP CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL DETAILS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY SOMEWHAT LOW. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL IN REGARDS TO QPF ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE NAM IS ON THE LOW END OF VALUES. THE
ECMWF IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A BLEND
OF SOLUTIONS. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND QPF ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF NORTH DAKOTA. INSTABILITY IS STILL NOT VERY
HIGH ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE KEPT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.
AS STATED EARLIER...MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL VARY ON MONDAY...AND
THIS ALSO INFLUENCES THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THEY PRODUCE. WILL
BUMP UP THE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ON MONDAY WITH MORE
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY THE GFS...BUT WILL KEEP THINGS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WE ARE STILL SHOWING THE HIGHEST
TOTALS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1.00 - 1.25
INCHES ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS
REMAIN IN THE NORTH WHERE WE HAVE 0.25 - 0.50 INCH THROUGH THAT
SAME TIME PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A BLENDED
MODEL SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY OVERALL IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO MFVR WITH RAIN AT
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN CLOSER
TO 12Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KBIS 230845
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING OF RAIN
TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE INDICATE AN EVEN
FURTHER DELAY IN PRECIPITATION ONSET. THE EARLIER NAM AND GEM RUNS
KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THEIR LATEST RUNS. FURTHERMORE...THE OO UTC
RUNS OF THE WRF FURTHER INDICATE A DELAY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER EJECTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ALSO PUSHED BACK THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN...SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SHOULD BE THE COOL SPOT TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S...WHILE NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SEES A LITTLE MORE SUN AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE RAIN / THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES KEEP CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL DETAILS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY SOMEWHAT LOW. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL IN REGARDS TO QPF ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE NAM IS ON THE LOW END OF VALUES. THE
ECMWF IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A BLEND
OF SOLUTIONS. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND QPF ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF NORTH DAKOTA. INSTABILITY IS STILL NOT VERY
HIGH ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE KEPT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.
AS STATED EARLIER...MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL VARY ON MONDAY...AND
THIS ALSO INFLUENCES THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THEY PRODUCE. WILL
BUMP UP THE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ON MONDAY WITH MORE
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY THE GFS...BUT WILL KEEP THINGS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WE ARE STILL SHOWING THE HIGHEST
TOTALS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1.00 - 1.25
INCHES ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS
REMAIN IN THE NORTH WHERE WE HAVE 0.25 - 0.50 INCH THROUGH THAT
SAME TIME PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A BLENDED
MODEL SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY OVERALL IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY. FOR THIS ISSUANCE PUSHED BACK IN TIME THE MVFR
CEILINGS AND SHOWERS INTO KDIK/KBIS/KJMS TO OOZ SUNDAY. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS OUT OF NORTHERN TAF SITES OF
KISN AND KMOT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KBIS 230845
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING OF RAIN
TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE INDICATE AN EVEN
FURTHER DELAY IN PRECIPITATION ONSET. THE EARLIER NAM AND GEM RUNS
KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THEIR LATEST RUNS. FURTHERMORE...THE OO UTC
RUNS OF THE WRF FURTHER INDICATE A DELAY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER EJECTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ALSO PUSHED BACK THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN...SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SHOULD BE THE COOL SPOT TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S...WHILE NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SEES A LITTLE MORE SUN AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE RAIN / THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES KEEP CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL DETAILS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY SOMEWHAT LOW. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL IN REGARDS TO QPF ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE NAM IS ON THE LOW END OF VALUES. THE
ECMWF IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A BLEND
OF SOLUTIONS. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND QPF ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF NORTH DAKOTA. INSTABILITY IS STILL NOT VERY
HIGH ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE KEPT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.
AS STATED EARLIER...MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL VARY ON MONDAY...AND
THIS ALSO INFLUENCES THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THEY PRODUCE. WILL
BUMP UP THE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ON MONDAY WITH MORE
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY THE GFS...BUT WILL KEEP THINGS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WE ARE STILL SHOWING THE HIGHEST
TOTALS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1.00 - 1.25
INCHES ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS
REMAIN IN THE NORTH WHERE WE HAVE 0.25 - 0.50 INCH THROUGH THAT
SAME TIME PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A BLENDED
MODEL SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY OVERALL IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY. FOR THIS ISSUANCE PUSHED BACK IN TIME THE MVFR
CEILINGS AND SHOWERS INTO KDIK/KBIS/KJMS TO OOZ SUNDAY. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS OUT OF NORTHERN TAF SITES OF
KISN AND KMOT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KBIS 230845
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING OF RAIN
TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE INDICATE AN EVEN
FURTHER DELAY IN PRECIPITATION ONSET. THE EARLIER NAM AND GEM RUNS
KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THEIR LATEST RUNS. FURTHERMORE...THE OO UTC
RUNS OF THE WRF FURTHER INDICATE A DELAY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER EJECTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ALSO PUSHED BACK THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN...SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SHOULD BE THE COOL SPOT TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S...WHILE NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SEES A LITTLE MORE SUN AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE RAIN / THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES KEEP CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL DETAILS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY SOMEWHAT LOW. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL IN REGARDS TO QPF ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE NAM IS ON THE LOW END OF VALUES. THE
ECMWF IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A BLEND
OF SOLUTIONS. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND QPF ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF NORTH DAKOTA. INSTABILITY IS STILL NOT VERY
HIGH ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE KEPT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.
AS STATED EARLIER...MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL VARY ON MONDAY...AND
THIS ALSO INFLUENCES THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THEY PRODUCE. WILL
BUMP UP THE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ON MONDAY WITH MORE
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY THE GFS...BUT WILL KEEP THINGS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WE ARE STILL SHOWING THE HIGHEST
TOTALS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1.00 - 1.25
INCHES ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS
REMAIN IN THE NORTH WHERE WE HAVE 0.25 - 0.50 INCH THROUGH THAT
SAME TIME PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A BLENDED
MODEL SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY OVERALL IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY. FOR THIS ISSUANCE PUSHED BACK IN TIME THE MVFR
CEILINGS AND SHOWERS INTO KDIK/KBIS/KJMS TO OOZ SUNDAY. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS OUT OF NORTHERN TAF SITES OF
KISN AND KMOT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KBIS 230845
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING OF RAIN
TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE INDICATE AN EVEN
FURTHER DELAY IN PRECIPITATION ONSET. THE EARLIER NAM AND GEM RUNS
KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THEIR LATEST RUNS. FURTHERMORE...THE OO UTC
RUNS OF THE WRF FURTHER INDICATE A DELAY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER EJECTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ALSO PUSHED BACK THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN...SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SHOULD BE THE COOL SPOT TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S...WHILE NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SEES A LITTLE MORE SUN AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE RAIN / THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES KEEP CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL DETAILS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY SOMEWHAT LOW. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL IN REGARDS TO QPF ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE NAM IS ON THE LOW END OF VALUES. THE
ECMWF IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A BLEND
OF SOLUTIONS. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND QPF ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF NORTH DAKOTA. INSTABILITY IS STILL NOT VERY
HIGH ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE KEPT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.
AS STATED EARLIER...MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL VARY ON MONDAY...AND
THIS ALSO INFLUENCES THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THEY PRODUCE. WILL
BUMP UP THE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ON MONDAY WITH MORE
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY THE GFS...BUT WILL KEEP THINGS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WE ARE STILL SHOWING THE HIGHEST
TOTALS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1.00 - 1.25
INCHES ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS
REMAIN IN THE NORTH WHERE WE HAVE 0.25 - 0.50 INCH THROUGH THAT
SAME TIME PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A BLENDED
MODEL SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY OVERALL IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY. FOR THIS ISSUANCE PUSHED BACK IN TIME THE MVFR
CEILINGS AND SHOWERS INTO KDIK/KBIS/KJMS TO OOZ SUNDAY. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS OUT OF NORTHERN TAF SITES OF
KISN AND KMOT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KBIS 230845
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING OF RAIN
TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE INDICATE AN EVEN
FURTHER DELAY IN PRECIPITATION ONSET. THE EARLIER NAM AND GEM RUNS
KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THEIR LATEST RUNS. FURTHERMORE...THE OO UTC
RUNS OF THE WRF FURTHER INDICATE A DELAY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER EJECTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ALSO PUSHED BACK THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN...SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SHOULD BE THE COOL SPOT TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S...WHILE NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SEES A LITTLE MORE SUN AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE RAIN / THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES KEEP CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL DETAILS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY SOMEWHAT LOW. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL IN REGARDS TO QPF ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE NAM IS ON THE LOW END OF VALUES. THE
ECMWF IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A BLEND
OF SOLUTIONS. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND QPF ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF NORTH DAKOTA. INSTABILITY IS STILL NOT VERY
HIGH ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE KEPT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.
AS STATED EARLIER...MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL VARY ON MONDAY...AND
THIS ALSO INFLUENCES THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THEY PRODUCE. WILL
BUMP UP THE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ON MONDAY WITH MORE
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY THE GFS...BUT WILL KEEP THINGS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WE ARE STILL SHOWING THE HIGHEST
TOTALS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1.00 - 1.25
INCHES ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS
REMAIN IN THE NORTH WHERE WE HAVE 0.25 - 0.50 INCH THROUGH THAT
SAME TIME PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A BLENDED
MODEL SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY OVERALL IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY. FOR THIS ISSUANCE PUSHED BACK IN TIME THE MVFR
CEILINGS AND SHOWERS INTO KDIK/KBIS/KJMS TO OOZ SUNDAY. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS OUT OF NORTHERN TAF SITES OF
KISN AND KMOT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KBIS 230845
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING OF RAIN
TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE INDICATE AN EVEN
FURTHER DELAY IN PRECIPITATION ONSET. THE EARLIER NAM AND GEM RUNS
KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THEIR LATEST RUNS. FURTHERMORE...THE OO UTC
RUNS OF THE WRF FURTHER INDICATE A DELAY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER EJECTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ALSO PUSHED BACK THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN...SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SHOULD BE THE COOL SPOT TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S...WHILE NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SEES A LITTLE MORE SUN AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE RAIN / THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES KEEP CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL DETAILS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY SOMEWHAT LOW. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL IN REGARDS TO QPF ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE NAM IS ON THE LOW END OF VALUES. THE
ECMWF IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A BLEND
OF SOLUTIONS. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND QPF ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF NORTH DAKOTA. INSTABILITY IS STILL NOT VERY
HIGH ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE KEPT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.
AS STATED EARLIER...MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL VARY ON MONDAY...AND
THIS ALSO INFLUENCES THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THEY PRODUCE. WILL
BUMP UP THE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ON MONDAY WITH MORE
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY THE GFS...BUT WILL KEEP THINGS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WE ARE STILL SHOWING THE HIGHEST
TOTALS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1.00 - 1.25
INCHES ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS
REMAIN IN THE NORTH WHERE WE HAVE 0.25 - 0.50 INCH THROUGH THAT
SAME TIME PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A BLENDED
MODEL SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY OVERALL IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY. FOR THIS ISSUANCE PUSHED BACK IN TIME THE MVFR
CEILINGS AND SHOWERS INTO KDIK/KBIS/KJMS TO OOZ SUNDAY. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS OUT OF NORTHERN TAF SITES OF
KISN AND KMOT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KFGF 230836
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
336 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISSUES WILL BE HOW FAR AND WHEN WILL THE PRECIP SPREAD NORTH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER UTAH/N ARIZONA THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS..AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME MID CLOUDS IN THE
SRN FCST AREA THIS AFTN. OF INTEREST IS A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS IN
THE SIOUX FALLS AREA. HRRR AND A FEW OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS DO
BRING A FEW SPITS OF PRECIP NORTHEAST INTO WCNTRL MN (ALEX-ST
CLOUD AREA) LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. TO BLEND WITH WFO MPX I
DID INSERT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OTTER TAIL AND WADENA COUNTIES LATE
MORNING INTO MID AFTN. BASED ON MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ANY SHOWERS
WILL NOT REACH THE SD/ND BORDER AREA TIL LATE THIS AFTN AND
TRIMMED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY. TONIGHT WILL SEE A SHOWER RICK
IN THE SOUTH BUT STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SLOWING DOWN ANY NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF MOISTURE.

SUNDAY WILL SEE DEEPER MOISTURE START TO MOVE INTO SE ND AND THEN
SPREAD NORTH DURING THE DAY. THUS HIGHER POPS...MOSTLY SOUTHERN
FCST AREA. GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER THAN ECMWF/GEM WHICH KEEP
DVL-GFK AREA DRY THRU SUN EVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RAIN CHANCES SPREAD NORTH SUN NIGHT WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
AS UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SD INTO CNTRL/SRN
MN. HIGH PRESSURE DOES REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SOME
MODELS WANT TO KEEP FAR NW FCST AREA DRY EVEN MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
WENT WITH SUPERBLEND OF MODELS AND IDEA OF CATEGORIAL POPS FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY SE 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT VERY WEAK...SO DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
SUN NIGHT THRU MON IN THE GRIDS. PRECIP BEGINS TO MOVE EAST MON
NIGHT. AS FOR HOW MUCH RAINFALL....MOST AREAS IN THE ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS INCH RANGE GFK SOUTH AND EAST AND LESS NORTHWEST.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER FEATURES BECOME OUT OF
PHASE WHEN COMPARING ECMWF AND GFS...UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY`S
SOLUTION. ECMWF HAS LONGER WAVES WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW MID
WEEK WHILE GFS HANGS ON TO A DIGGING SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE BORDER
WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE KEY TO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS.
LATEST EXTENDED SUPERBLEND SOLUTION CONTINUES WITH POPS COVERING
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA MOST OF THE TIME...ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO
SMOOTH OUT MINUTE AREAS OF PCPN/NO PCPN WITHIN THE FGF CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAINLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. INCREASING VFR CIGS INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND
AND WEST CENTRAL MN BY 18Z... WITH SCT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS AFT 20Z... MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 10 TO 15 KTS FROM MID MORNING TIL SUNSET.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GUST



000
FXUS63 KFGF 230836
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
336 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISSUES WILL BE HOW FAR AND WHEN WILL THE PRECIP SPREAD NORTH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER UTAH/N ARIZONA THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS..AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME MID CLOUDS IN THE
SRN FCST AREA THIS AFTN. OF INTEREST IS A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS IN
THE SIOUX FALLS AREA. HRRR AND A FEW OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS DO
BRING A FEW SPITS OF PRECIP NORTHEAST INTO WCNTRL MN (ALEX-ST
CLOUD AREA) LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. TO BLEND WITH WFO MPX I
DID INSERT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OTTER TAIL AND WADENA COUNTIES LATE
MORNING INTO MID AFTN. BASED ON MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ANY SHOWERS
WILL NOT REACH THE SD/ND BORDER AREA TIL LATE THIS AFTN AND
TRIMMED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY. TONIGHT WILL SEE A SHOWER RICK
IN THE SOUTH BUT STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SLOWING DOWN ANY NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF MOISTURE.

SUNDAY WILL SEE DEEPER MOISTURE START TO MOVE INTO SE ND AND THEN
SPREAD NORTH DURING THE DAY. THUS HIGHER POPS...MOSTLY SOUTHERN
FCST AREA. GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER THAN ECMWF/GEM WHICH KEEP
DVL-GFK AREA DRY THRU SUN EVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RAIN CHANCES SPREAD NORTH SUN NIGHT WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
AS UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SD INTO CNTRL/SRN
MN. HIGH PRESSURE DOES REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SOME
MODELS WANT TO KEEP FAR NW FCST AREA DRY EVEN MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
WENT WITH SUPERBLEND OF MODELS AND IDEA OF CATEGORIAL POPS FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY SE 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT VERY WEAK...SO DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
SUN NIGHT THRU MON IN THE GRIDS. PRECIP BEGINS TO MOVE EAST MON
NIGHT. AS FOR HOW MUCH RAINFALL....MOST AREAS IN THE ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS INCH RANGE GFK SOUTH AND EAST AND LESS NORTHWEST.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER FEATURES BECOME OUT OF
PHASE WHEN COMPARING ECMWF AND GFS...UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY`S
SOLUTION. ECMWF HAS LONGER WAVES WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW MID
WEEK WHILE GFS HANGS ON TO A DIGGING SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE BORDER
WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE KEY TO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS.
LATEST EXTENDED SUPERBLEND SOLUTION CONTINUES WITH POPS COVERING
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA MOST OF THE TIME...ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO
SMOOTH OUT MINUTE AREAS OF PCPN/NO PCPN WITHIN THE FGF CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAINLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. INCREASING VFR CIGS INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND
AND WEST CENTRAL MN BY 18Z... WITH SCT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS AFT 20Z... MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 10 TO 15 KTS FROM MID MORNING TIL SUNSET.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GUST




000
FXUS63 KBIS 230525
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1225 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES FOR THE EVENING FORECAST. MODIFIED SKY
COVER SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND UPDATED LATEST
SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. NEW NAM IS JUST COMING IN AND PRETTY
MUCH DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NAM HAS BEEN THE DRIEST OF THE MODELS AND
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOT ARRIVED YET SO WILL STICK WITH OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF DURING THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. MID SHIFT CAN ADJUST AS
NEEDED AS REMAINING 00 UTC MODELS START COMING IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS ON OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HAVE
KEPT TONIGHT DRY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND SLOWED THE INTRUSION
OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
NORTHWESTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN. SOUTHWEST OF THIS AXIS WINDS WERE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORTHEAST OF THIS LINE THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WERE AT 5 TO 15 MPH. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA MOVING NORTHWARD.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH THE UPPER
JET ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

THE MODELS CONTINUED TO DIFFER REGARDING THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE REGARDING
BRINGING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NORTHWARD AND INTO SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY NORTHWARD...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE IMPULSE IS WEAKER THAN
THAT OF THE GFS...AND WOULD INDICATE ANY RAINFALL WOULD BEGIN A
BIT LATER SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS WEAKEST AND SLOWEST OF ALL
AND SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

THE CONSENSUS WAS TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE MODEL
ENSEMBLES...AND BACKED OFF ON PRECIP AMOUNTS THAT WERE EARLIER FORECAST FOR
THE DAYTIME SATURDAY PERIOD.

THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BEGIN AROUND DAYBREAK
IN FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DAYTIME SATURDAY. ALSO LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...LESS THAN 0.10" FOR THE SATURDAY DAYTIME PERIOD.

THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TAKEN OUT FOR SATURDAY...AS LATEST MODELS
INDICATED MUCH LESS INSTABILITY AND FORCING EARLY ON IN THIS LARGE-SCALE
SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CONSENSUS AMONGST THE LONG TERM MODELS SHOW A POTENT JET STREAK
EJECTING THROUGH THE BASE OF A SOUTHWEST LONGWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. THE
EVOLUTION/PLACEMENT OF A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT LIKELY POPS WARRANTED IN THE
FAR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND RESULTANT UPPER LOW TRACKING
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE ECMWF IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND AND EAST. THE CANADIAN GEM IS
IN MIDDLE. THUS USED A BLEND OF THE MODEL SUITE IN COMBINATION WITH
QPF FROM WPC. THIS PLACES THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY MORNING OF AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THE REST OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 1.20
INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL TAPERS OFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE FAR NORTH
AROUND A HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION. OVERALL THIS SHOULD BE A DECENT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY. FOR THIS ISSUANCE PUSHED BACK IN TIME THE MVFR
CEILINGS AND SHOWERS INTO KDIK/KBIS/KJMS TO OOZ SUNDAY. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS OUT OF NORTHERN TAF SITES OF
KISN AND KMOT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KFGF 230425
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1125 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NO SIG FORECAST UPDATES ARE NEEDED THIS LATE EVENING. EXPECT
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY COOLING
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S BY MIDNIGHT...AND DOWN TO THE UPPER
40S NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
DIMINISHING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. WILL USE MODEL BLEND
FOR TEMPS AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WITH SKY INCREASING SOUTH TO NORTH AFT 12Z TOMORROW. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP ATMS STABLE ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIP TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...IF ANY.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN AREA.

TOMORROW...12Z NAM BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN VALLEY
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...SPREADING NORTH TO ABOUT THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR
AND THEN STALLING. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA CLEAR
AND A RETURN OF MID 70S TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S SOUTH OF HWY 200. UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION.

TOMORROW NIGHT....MODELS TO FLIRT WITH SOME PRECIP SOUTH OF I 94
CORRIDOR IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS
ORIENTED SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE. HAVE PULLED POPS UNTIL 09Z SUN MORNING OTHER THAN
THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF CWA FOR BLENDING PURPOSES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST AND SOME SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH
INTO THE CWA HOWEVER ATMS REMAINS STABLE WITH VERY LOW MUCAPES
THROUGH SUN AND SUN NIGHT. MUCAPES FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHEN UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN TIER.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE H500 LOW TRACKS...COULD SEE ANOTHER COLD
AIR FUNNEL SCENARIO SET UP MON AFTN. HOWEVER MANY VARIABLES TO
CONSIDER THIS FAR OUT. WITH MODELS VARYING ON TRACK OF LOW AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WILL USE SUPERBLEND FOR POPS AND KEEP
LIKELIES MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. ALSO WILL GO WITH
STRAIGHT CONVECTION AS MUCAPES ARE ON THE RISE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE MAIN QUESTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN (ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
ALLOWS MORE MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY). THE SUPERBLEND EXTENDED
SOLUTION HAS POPS/WX MOST PERIODS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH THAT
SAID...MAINLY DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE TYPE ACTIVITY AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAINLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. INCREASING VFR CIGS INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND
AND WEST CENTRAL MN BY 18Z... WITH SCT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS AFT 20Z... MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 10 TO 15 KTS FROM MID MORNING TIL SUNSET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE TWO RIVERS RIVER IN KITTSON COUNTY /NEAR HALLOCK/ WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW DECLINE...DROPPING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GUST
HYDROLOGY...HOPKINS



000
FXUS63 KFGF 230425
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1125 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NO SIG FORECAST UPDATES ARE NEEDED THIS LATE EVENING. EXPECT
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY COOLING
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S BY MIDNIGHT...AND DOWN TO THE UPPER
40S NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
DIMINISHING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. WILL USE MODEL BLEND
FOR TEMPS AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WITH SKY INCREASING SOUTH TO NORTH AFT 12Z TOMORROW. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP ATMS STABLE ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIP TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...IF ANY.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN AREA.

TOMORROW...12Z NAM BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN VALLEY
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...SPREADING NORTH TO ABOUT THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR
AND THEN STALLING. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA CLEAR
AND A RETURN OF MID 70S TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S SOUTH OF HWY 200. UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION.

TOMORROW NIGHT....MODELS TO FLIRT WITH SOME PRECIP SOUTH OF I 94
CORRIDOR IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS
ORIENTED SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE. HAVE PULLED POPS UNTIL 09Z SUN MORNING OTHER THAN
THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF CWA FOR BLENDING PURPOSES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST AND SOME SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH
INTO THE CWA HOWEVER ATMS REMAINS STABLE WITH VERY LOW MUCAPES
THROUGH SUN AND SUN NIGHT. MUCAPES FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHEN UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN TIER.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE H500 LOW TRACKS...COULD SEE ANOTHER COLD
AIR FUNNEL SCENARIO SET UP MON AFTN. HOWEVER MANY VARIABLES TO
CONSIDER THIS FAR OUT. WITH MODELS VARYING ON TRACK OF LOW AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WILL USE SUPERBLEND FOR POPS AND KEEP
LIKELIES MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. ALSO WILL GO WITH
STRAIGHT CONVECTION AS MUCAPES ARE ON THE RISE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE MAIN QUESTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN (ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
ALLOWS MORE MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY). THE SUPERBLEND EXTENDED
SOLUTION HAS POPS/WX MOST PERIODS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH THAT
SAID...MAINLY DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE TYPE ACTIVITY AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAINLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. INCREASING VFR CIGS INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND
AND WEST CENTRAL MN BY 18Z... WITH SCT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS AFT 20Z... MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 10 TO 15 KTS FROM MID MORNING TIL SUNSET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE TWO RIVERS RIVER IN KITTSON COUNTY /NEAR HALLOCK/ WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW DECLINE...DROPPING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GUST
HYDROLOGY...HOPKINS



000
FXUS63 KFGF 230425
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1125 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NO SIG FORECAST UPDATES ARE NEEDED THIS LATE EVENING. EXPECT
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY COOLING
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S BY MIDNIGHT...AND DOWN TO THE UPPER
40S NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
DIMINISHING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. WILL USE MODEL BLEND
FOR TEMPS AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WITH SKY INCREASING SOUTH TO NORTH AFT 12Z TOMORROW. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP ATMS STABLE ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIP TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...IF ANY.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN AREA.

TOMORROW...12Z NAM BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN VALLEY
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...SPREADING NORTH TO ABOUT THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR
AND THEN STALLING. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA CLEAR
AND A RETURN OF MID 70S TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S SOUTH OF HWY 200. UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION.

TOMORROW NIGHT....MODELS TO FLIRT WITH SOME PRECIP SOUTH OF I 94
CORRIDOR IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS
ORIENTED SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE. HAVE PULLED POPS UNTIL 09Z SUN MORNING OTHER THAN
THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF CWA FOR BLENDING PURPOSES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST AND SOME SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH
INTO THE CWA HOWEVER ATMS REMAINS STABLE WITH VERY LOW MUCAPES
THROUGH SUN AND SUN NIGHT. MUCAPES FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHEN UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN TIER.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE H500 LOW TRACKS...COULD SEE ANOTHER COLD
AIR FUNNEL SCENARIO SET UP MON AFTN. HOWEVER MANY VARIABLES TO
CONSIDER THIS FAR OUT. WITH MODELS VARYING ON TRACK OF LOW AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WILL USE SUPERBLEND FOR POPS AND KEEP
LIKELIES MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. ALSO WILL GO WITH
STRAIGHT CONVECTION AS MUCAPES ARE ON THE RISE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE MAIN QUESTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN (ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
ALLOWS MORE MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY). THE SUPERBLEND EXTENDED
SOLUTION HAS POPS/WX MOST PERIODS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH THAT
SAID...MAINLY DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE TYPE ACTIVITY AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAINLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. INCREASING VFR CIGS INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND
AND WEST CENTRAL MN BY 18Z... WITH SCT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS AFT 20Z... MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 10 TO 15 KTS FROM MID MORNING TIL SUNSET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE TWO RIVERS RIVER IN KITTSON COUNTY /NEAR HALLOCK/ WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW DECLINE...DROPPING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GUST
HYDROLOGY...HOPKINS



000
FXUS63 KFGF 230425
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1125 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NO SIG FORECAST UPDATES ARE NEEDED THIS LATE EVENING. EXPECT
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY COOLING
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S BY MIDNIGHT...AND DOWN TO THE UPPER
40S NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
DIMINISHING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. WILL USE MODEL BLEND
FOR TEMPS AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WITH SKY INCREASING SOUTH TO NORTH AFT 12Z TOMORROW. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP ATMS STABLE ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIP TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...IF ANY.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN AREA.

TOMORROW...12Z NAM BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN VALLEY
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...SPREADING NORTH TO ABOUT THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR
AND THEN STALLING. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA CLEAR
AND A RETURN OF MID 70S TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S SOUTH OF HWY 200. UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION.

TOMORROW NIGHT....MODELS TO FLIRT WITH SOME PRECIP SOUTH OF I 94
CORRIDOR IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS
ORIENTED SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE. HAVE PULLED POPS UNTIL 09Z SUN MORNING OTHER THAN
THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF CWA FOR BLENDING PURPOSES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST AND SOME SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH
INTO THE CWA HOWEVER ATMS REMAINS STABLE WITH VERY LOW MUCAPES
THROUGH SUN AND SUN NIGHT. MUCAPES FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHEN UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN TIER.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE H500 LOW TRACKS...COULD SEE ANOTHER COLD
AIR FUNNEL SCENARIO SET UP MON AFTN. HOWEVER MANY VARIABLES TO
CONSIDER THIS FAR OUT. WITH MODELS VARYING ON TRACK OF LOW AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WILL USE SUPERBLEND FOR POPS AND KEEP
LIKELIES MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. ALSO WILL GO WITH
STRAIGHT CONVECTION AS MUCAPES ARE ON THE RISE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE MAIN QUESTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN (ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
ALLOWS MORE MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY). THE SUPERBLEND EXTENDED
SOLUTION HAS POPS/WX MOST PERIODS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH THAT
SAID...MAINLY DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE TYPE ACTIVITY AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAINLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. INCREASING VFR CIGS INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND
AND WEST CENTRAL MN BY 18Z... WITH SCT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS AFT 20Z... MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 10 TO 15 KTS FROM MID MORNING TIL SUNSET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE TWO RIVERS RIVER IN KITTSON COUNTY /NEAR HALLOCK/ WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW DECLINE...DROPPING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GUST
HYDROLOGY...HOPKINS



000
FXUS63 KFGF 230425
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1125 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NO SIG FORECAST UPDATES ARE NEEDED THIS LATE EVENING. EXPECT
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY COOLING
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S BY MIDNIGHT...AND DOWN TO THE UPPER
40S NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
DIMINISHING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. WILL USE MODEL BLEND
FOR TEMPS AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WITH SKY INCREASING SOUTH TO NORTH AFT 12Z TOMORROW. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP ATMS STABLE ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIP TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...IF ANY.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN AREA.

TOMORROW...12Z NAM BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN VALLEY
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...SPREADING NORTH TO ABOUT THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR
AND THEN STALLING. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA CLEAR
AND A RETURN OF MID 70S TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S SOUTH OF HWY 200. UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION.

TOMORROW NIGHT....MODELS TO FLIRT WITH SOME PRECIP SOUTH OF I 94
CORRIDOR IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS
ORIENTED SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE. HAVE PULLED POPS UNTIL 09Z SUN MORNING OTHER THAN
THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF CWA FOR BLENDING PURPOSES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST AND SOME SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH
INTO THE CWA HOWEVER ATMS REMAINS STABLE WITH VERY LOW MUCAPES
THROUGH SUN AND SUN NIGHT. MUCAPES FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHEN UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN TIER.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE H500 LOW TRACKS...COULD SEE ANOTHER COLD
AIR FUNNEL SCENARIO SET UP MON AFTN. HOWEVER MANY VARIABLES TO
CONSIDER THIS FAR OUT. WITH MODELS VARYING ON TRACK OF LOW AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WILL USE SUPERBLEND FOR POPS AND KEEP
LIKELIES MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. ALSO WILL GO WITH
STRAIGHT CONVECTION AS MUCAPES ARE ON THE RISE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE MAIN QUESTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN (ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
ALLOWS MORE MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY). THE SUPERBLEND EXTENDED
SOLUTION HAS POPS/WX MOST PERIODS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH THAT
SAID...MAINLY DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE TYPE ACTIVITY AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAINLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. INCREASING VFR CIGS INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND
AND WEST CENTRAL MN BY 18Z... WITH SCT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS AFT 20Z... MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 10 TO 15 KTS FROM MID MORNING TIL SUNSET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE TWO RIVERS RIVER IN KITTSON COUNTY /NEAR HALLOCK/ WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW DECLINE...DROPPING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GUST
HYDROLOGY...HOPKINS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 230237
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES FOR THE EVENING FORECAST. MODIFIED SKY
COVER SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND UPDATED LATEST
SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. NEW NAM IS JUST COMING IN AND PRETTY
MUCH DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NAM HAS BEEN THE DRIEST OF THE MODELS AND
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOT ARRIVED YET SO WILL STICK WITH OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF DURING THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. MID SHIFT CAN ADJUST AS
NEEDED AS REMAINING 00 UTC MODELS START COMING IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS ON OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HAVE
KEPT TONIGHT DRY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND SLOWED THE INTRUSION
OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
NORTHWESTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN. SOUTHWEST OF THIS AXIS WINDS WERE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORTHEAST OF THIS LINE THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WERE AT 5 TO 15 MPH. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA MOVING NORTHWARD.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH THE UPPER
JET ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

THE MODELS CONTINUED TO DIFFER REGARDING THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE REGARDING
BRINGING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NORTHWARD AND INTO SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY NORTHWARD...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE IMPULSE IS WEAKER THAN
THAT OF THE GFS...AND WOULD INDICATE ANY RAINFALL WOULD BEGIN A
BIT LATER SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS WEAKEST AND SLOWEST OF ALL
AND SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

THE CONSENSUS WAS TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE MODEL
ENSEMBLES...AND BACKED OFF ON PRECIP AMOUNTS THAT WERE EARLIER FORECAST FOR
THE DAYTIME SATURDAY PERIOD.

THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BEGIN AROUND DAYBREAK
IN FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DAYTIME SATURDAY. ALSO LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...LESS THAN 0.10" FOR THE SATURDAY DAYTIME PERIOD.

THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TAKEN OUT FOR SATURDAY...AS LATEST MODELS
INDICATED MUCH LESS INSTABILITY AND FORCING EARLY ON IN THIS LARGE-SCALE
SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CONSENSUS AMONGST THE LONG TERM MODELS SHOW A POTENT JET STREAK
EJECTING THROUGH THE BASE OF A SOUTHWEST LONGWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. THE
EVOLUTION/PLACEMENT OF A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT LIKELY POPS WARRANTED IN THE
FAR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND RESULTANT UPPER LOW TRACKING
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE ECMWF IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND AND EAST. THE CANADIAN GEM IS
IN MIDDLE. THUS USED A BLEND OF THE MODEL SUITE IN COMBINATION WITH
QPF FROM WPC. THIS PLACES THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY MORNING OF AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THE REST OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 1.20
INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL TAPERS OFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE FAR NORTH
AROUND A HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION. OVERALL THIS SHOULD BE A DECENT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY. BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS INTO KDIK AND KBIS
16-18Z SATURDAY...WITH VFR SHOWERS INTO KJMS AROUND 21 UTC
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS OUT OF
NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KISN AND KMOT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 230237
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES FOR THE EVENING FORECAST. MODIFIED SKY
COVER SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND UPDATED LATEST
SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. NEW NAM IS JUST COMING IN AND PRETTY
MUCH DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NAM HAS BEEN THE DRIEST OF THE MODELS AND
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOT ARRIVED YET SO WILL STICK WITH OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF DURING THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. MID SHIFT CAN ADJUST AS
NEEDED AS REMAINING 00 UTC MODELS START COMING IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS ON OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HAVE
KEPT TONIGHT DRY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND SLOWED THE INTRUSION
OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
NORTHWESTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN. SOUTHWEST OF THIS AXIS WINDS WERE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORTHEAST OF THIS LINE THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WERE AT 5 TO 15 MPH. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA MOVING NORTHWARD.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH THE UPPER
JET ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

THE MODELS CONTINUED TO DIFFER REGARDING THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE REGARDING
BRINGING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NORTHWARD AND INTO SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY NORTHWARD...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE IMPULSE IS WEAKER THAN
THAT OF THE GFS...AND WOULD INDICATE ANY RAINFALL WOULD BEGIN A
BIT LATER SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS WEAKEST AND SLOWEST OF ALL
AND SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

THE CONSENSUS WAS TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE MODEL
ENSEMBLES...AND BACKED OFF ON PRECIP AMOUNTS THAT WERE EARLIER FORECAST FOR
THE DAYTIME SATURDAY PERIOD.

THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BEGIN AROUND DAYBREAK
IN FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DAYTIME SATURDAY. ALSO LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...LESS THAN 0.10" FOR THE SATURDAY DAYTIME PERIOD.

THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TAKEN OUT FOR SATURDAY...AS LATEST MODELS
INDICATED MUCH LESS INSTABILITY AND FORCING EARLY ON IN THIS LARGE-SCALE
SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CONSENSUS AMONGST THE LONG TERM MODELS SHOW A POTENT JET STREAK
EJECTING THROUGH THE BASE OF A SOUTHWEST LONGWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. THE
EVOLUTION/PLACEMENT OF A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT LIKELY POPS WARRANTED IN THE
FAR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND RESULTANT UPPER LOW TRACKING
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE ECMWF IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND AND EAST. THE CANADIAN GEM IS
IN MIDDLE. THUS USED A BLEND OF THE MODEL SUITE IN COMBINATION WITH
QPF FROM WPC. THIS PLACES THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY MORNING OF AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THE REST OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 1.20
INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL TAPERS OFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE FAR NORTH
AROUND A HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION. OVERALL THIS SHOULD BE A DECENT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY. BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS INTO KDIK AND KBIS
16-18Z SATURDAY...WITH VFR SHOWERS INTO KJMS AROUND 21 UTC
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS OUT OF
NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KISN AND KMOT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 230237
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES FOR THE EVENING FORECAST. MODIFIED SKY
COVER SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND UPDATED LATEST
SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. NEW NAM IS JUST COMING IN AND PRETTY
MUCH DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NAM HAS BEEN THE DRIEST OF THE MODELS AND
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOT ARRIVED YET SO WILL STICK WITH OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF DURING THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. MID SHIFT CAN ADJUST AS
NEEDED AS REMAINING 00 UTC MODELS START COMING IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS ON OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HAVE
KEPT TONIGHT DRY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND SLOWED THE INTRUSION
OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
NORTHWESTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN. SOUTHWEST OF THIS AXIS WINDS WERE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORTHEAST OF THIS LINE THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WERE AT 5 TO 15 MPH. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA MOVING NORTHWARD.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH THE UPPER
JET ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

THE MODELS CONTINUED TO DIFFER REGARDING THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE REGARDING
BRINGING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NORTHWARD AND INTO SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY NORTHWARD...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE IMPULSE IS WEAKER THAN
THAT OF THE GFS...AND WOULD INDICATE ANY RAINFALL WOULD BEGIN A
BIT LATER SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS WEAKEST AND SLOWEST OF ALL
AND SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

THE CONSENSUS WAS TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE MODEL
ENSEMBLES...AND BACKED OFF ON PRECIP AMOUNTS THAT WERE EARLIER FORECAST FOR
THE DAYTIME SATURDAY PERIOD.

THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BEGIN AROUND DAYBREAK
IN FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DAYTIME SATURDAY. ALSO LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...LESS THAN 0.10" FOR THE SATURDAY DAYTIME PERIOD.

THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TAKEN OUT FOR SATURDAY...AS LATEST MODELS
INDICATED MUCH LESS INSTABILITY AND FORCING EARLY ON IN THIS LARGE-SCALE
SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CONSENSUS AMONGST THE LONG TERM MODELS SHOW A POTENT JET STREAK
EJECTING THROUGH THE BASE OF A SOUTHWEST LONGWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. THE
EVOLUTION/PLACEMENT OF A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT LIKELY POPS WARRANTED IN THE
FAR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND RESULTANT UPPER LOW TRACKING
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE ECMWF IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND AND EAST. THE CANADIAN GEM IS
IN MIDDLE. THUS USED A BLEND OF THE MODEL SUITE IN COMBINATION WITH
QPF FROM WPC. THIS PLACES THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY MORNING OF AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THE REST OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 1.20
INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL TAPERS OFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE FAR NORTH
AROUND A HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION. OVERALL THIS SHOULD BE A DECENT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY. BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS INTO KDIK AND KBIS
16-18Z SATURDAY...WITH VFR SHOWERS INTO KJMS AROUND 21 UTC
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS OUT OF
NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KISN AND KMOT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 230237
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES FOR THE EVENING FORECAST. MODIFIED SKY
COVER SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND UPDATED LATEST
SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. NEW NAM IS JUST COMING IN AND PRETTY
MUCH DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NAM HAS BEEN THE DRIEST OF THE MODELS AND
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOT ARRIVED YET SO WILL STICK WITH OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF DURING THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. MID SHIFT CAN ADJUST AS
NEEDED AS REMAINING 00 UTC MODELS START COMING IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS ON OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HAVE
KEPT TONIGHT DRY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND SLOWED THE INTRUSION
OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
NORTHWESTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN. SOUTHWEST OF THIS AXIS WINDS WERE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORTHEAST OF THIS LINE THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WERE AT 5 TO 15 MPH. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA MOVING NORTHWARD.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH THE UPPER
JET ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

THE MODELS CONTINUED TO DIFFER REGARDING THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE REGARDING
BRINGING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NORTHWARD AND INTO SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY NORTHWARD...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE IMPULSE IS WEAKER THAN
THAT OF THE GFS...AND WOULD INDICATE ANY RAINFALL WOULD BEGIN A
BIT LATER SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS WEAKEST AND SLOWEST OF ALL
AND SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

THE CONSENSUS WAS TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE MODEL
ENSEMBLES...AND BACKED OFF ON PRECIP AMOUNTS THAT WERE EARLIER FORECAST FOR
THE DAYTIME SATURDAY PERIOD.

THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BEGIN AROUND DAYBREAK
IN FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DAYTIME SATURDAY. ALSO LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...LESS THAN 0.10" FOR THE SATURDAY DAYTIME PERIOD.

THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TAKEN OUT FOR SATURDAY...AS LATEST MODELS
INDICATED MUCH LESS INSTABILITY AND FORCING EARLY ON IN THIS LARGE-SCALE
SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CONSENSUS AMONGST THE LONG TERM MODELS SHOW A POTENT JET STREAK
EJECTING THROUGH THE BASE OF A SOUTHWEST LONGWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. THE
EVOLUTION/PLACEMENT OF A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT LIKELY POPS WARRANTED IN THE
FAR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND RESULTANT UPPER LOW TRACKING
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE ECMWF IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND AND EAST. THE CANADIAN GEM IS
IN MIDDLE. THUS USED A BLEND OF THE MODEL SUITE IN COMBINATION WITH
QPF FROM WPC. THIS PLACES THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY MORNING OF AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THE REST OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 1.20
INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL TAPERS OFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE FAR NORTH
AROUND A HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION. OVERALL THIS SHOULD BE A DECENT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY. BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS INTO KDIK AND KBIS
16-18Z SATURDAY...WITH VFR SHOWERS INTO KJMS AROUND 21 UTC
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS OUT OF
NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KISN AND KMOT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 230237
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES FOR THE EVENING FORECAST. MODIFIED SKY
COVER SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND UPDATED LATEST
SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. NEW NAM IS JUST COMING IN AND PRETTY
MUCH DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NAM HAS BEEN THE DRIEST OF THE MODELS AND
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOT ARRIVED YET SO WILL STICK WITH OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF DURING THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. MID SHIFT CAN ADJUST AS
NEEDED AS REMAINING 00 UTC MODELS START COMING IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS ON OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HAVE
KEPT TONIGHT DRY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND SLOWED THE INTRUSION
OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
NORTHWESTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN. SOUTHWEST OF THIS AXIS WINDS WERE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORTHEAST OF THIS LINE THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WERE AT 5 TO 15 MPH. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA MOVING NORTHWARD.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH THE UPPER
JET ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

THE MODELS CONTINUED TO DIFFER REGARDING THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE REGARDING
BRINGING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NORTHWARD AND INTO SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY NORTHWARD...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE IMPULSE IS WEAKER THAN
THAT OF THE GFS...AND WOULD INDICATE ANY RAINFALL WOULD BEGIN A
BIT LATER SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS WEAKEST AND SLOWEST OF ALL
AND SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

THE CONSENSUS WAS TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE MODEL
ENSEMBLES...AND BACKED OFF ON PRECIP AMOUNTS THAT WERE EARLIER FORECAST FOR
THE DAYTIME SATURDAY PERIOD.

THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BEGIN AROUND DAYBREAK
IN FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DAYTIME SATURDAY. ALSO LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...LESS THAN 0.10" FOR THE SATURDAY DAYTIME PERIOD.

THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TAKEN OUT FOR SATURDAY...AS LATEST MODELS
INDICATED MUCH LESS INSTABILITY AND FORCING EARLY ON IN THIS LARGE-SCALE
SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CONSENSUS AMONGST THE LONG TERM MODELS SHOW A POTENT JET STREAK
EJECTING THROUGH THE BASE OF A SOUTHWEST LONGWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. THE
EVOLUTION/PLACEMENT OF A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT LIKELY POPS WARRANTED IN THE
FAR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND RESULTANT UPPER LOW TRACKING
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE ECMWF IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND AND EAST. THE CANADIAN GEM IS
IN MIDDLE. THUS USED A BLEND OF THE MODEL SUITE IN COMBINATION WITH
QPF FROM WPC. THIS PLACES THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY MORNING OF AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THE REST OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 1.20
INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL TAPERS OFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE FAR NORTH
AROUND A HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION. OVERALL THIS SHOULD BE A DECENT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY. BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS INTO KDIK AND KBIS
16-18Z SATURDAY...WITH VFR SHOWERS INTO KJMS AROUND 21 UTC
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS OUT OF
NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KISN AND KMOT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 230237
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES FOR THE EVENING FORECAST. MODIFIED SKY
COVER SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND UPDATED LATEST
SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. NEW NAM IS JUST COMING IN AND PRETTY
MUCH DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NAM HAS BEEN THE DRIEST OF THE MODELS AND
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOT ARRIVED YET SO WILL STICK WITH OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF DURING THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. MID SHIFT CAN ADJUST AS
NEEDED AS REMAINING 00 UTC MODELS START COMING IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS ON OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HAVE
KEPT TONIGHT DRY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND SLOWED THE INTRUSION
OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
NORTHWESTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN. SOUTHWEST OF THIS AXIS WINDS WERE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORTHEAST OF THIS LINE THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WERE AT 5 TO 15 MPH. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA MOVING NORTHWARD.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH THE UPPER
JET ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

THE MODELS CONTINUED TO DIFFER REGARDING THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE REGARDING
BRINGING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NORTHWARD AND INTO SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY NORTHWARD...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE IMPULSE IS WEAKER THAN
THAT OF THE GFS...AND WOULD INDICATE ANY RAINFALL WOULD BEGIN A
BIT LATER SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS WEAKEST AND SLOWEST OF ALL
AND SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

THE CONSENSUS WAS TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE MODEL
ENSEMBLES...AND BACKED OFF ON PRECIP AMOUNTS THAT WERE EARLIER FORECAST FOR
THE DAYTIME SATURDAY PERIOD.

THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BEGIN AROUND DAYBREAK
IN FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DAYTIME SATURDAY. ALSO LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...LESS THAN 0.10" FOR THE SATURDAY DAYTIME PERIOD.

THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TAKEN OUT FOR SATURDAY...AS LATEST MODELS
INDICATED MUCH LESS INSTABILITY AND FORCING EARLY ON IN THIS LARGE-SCALE
SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CONSENSUS AMONGST THE LONG TERM MODELS SHOW A POTENT JET STREAK
EJECTING THROUGH THE BASE OF A SOUTHWEST LONGWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. THE
EVOLUTION/PLACEMENT OF A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT LIKELY POPS WARRANTED IN THE
FAR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND RESULTANT UPPER LOW TRACKING
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE ECMWF IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND AND EAST. THE CANADIAN GEM IS
IN MIDDLE. THUS USED A BLEND OF THE MODEL SUITE IN COMBINATION WITH
QPF FROM WPC. THIS PLACES THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY MORNING OF AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THE REST OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 1.20
INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL TAPERS OFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE FAR NORTH
AROUND A HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION. OVERALL THIS SHOULD BE A DECENT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY. BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS INTO KDIK AND KBIS
16-18Z SATURDAY...WITH VFR SHOWERS INTO KJMS AROUND 21 UTC
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS OUT OF
NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KISN AND KMOT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KFGF 230206
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
906 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NO SIG FORECAST UPDATES ARE NEEDED THIS LATE EVENING. EXPECT
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY COOLING
INTO THE UPPER 50S BY MIDNIGHT...AND THE UPPER 40S NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
DIMINISHING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. WILL USE MODEL BLEND
FOR TEMPS AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WITH SKY INCREASING SOUTH TO NORTH AFT 12Z TOMORROW. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP ATMS STABLE ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIP TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...IF ANY.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN AREA.

TOMORROW...12Z NAM BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN VALLEY
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...SPREADING NORTH TO ABOUT THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR
AND THEN STALLING. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA CLEAR
AND A RETURN OF MID 70S TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S SOUTH OF HWY 200. UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION.

TOMORROW NIGHT....MODELS TO FLIRT WITH SOME PRECIP SOUTH OF I 94
CORRIDOR IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS
ORIENTED SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE. HAVE PULLED POPS UNTIL 09Z SUN MORNING OTHER THAN
THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF CWA FOR BLENDING PURPOSES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST AND SOME SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH
INTO THE CWA HOWEVER ATMS REMAINS STABLE WITH VERY LOW MUCAPES
THROUGH SUN AND SUN NIGHT. MUCAPES FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHEN UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN TIER.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE H500 LOW TRACKS...COULD SEE ANOTHER COLD
AIR FUNNEL SCENARIO SET UP MON AFTN. HOWEVER MANY VARIABLES TO
CONSIDER THIS FAR OUT. WITH MODELS VARYING ON TRACK OF LOW AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WILL USE SUPERBLEND FOR POPS AND KEEP
LIKELIES MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. ALSO WILL GO WITH
STRAIGHT CONVECTION AS MUCAPES ARE ON THE RISE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE MAIN QUESTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN (ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
ALLOWS MORE MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY). THE SUPERBLEND EXTENDED
SOLUTION HAS POPS/WX MOST PERIODS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH THAT
SAID...MAINLY DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE TYPE ACTIVITY AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAINLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. INCREASING VFR CIGS INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND
AND WEST CENTRAL MN BY 18Z... WITH SCT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOWERS
AND ISOLD TSTMS AFT 20Z... MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE TWO RIVERS RIVER IN KITTSON COUNTY /NEAR HALLOCK/ WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW DECLINE...DROPPING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...RIVER FLOOD WARNING /MINOR/ CONTINUES FOR KITTSON COUNTY.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GUST
HYDROLOGY...HOPKINS



000
FXUS63 KFGF 230206
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
906 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NO SIG FORECAST UPDATES ARE NEEDED THIS LATE EVENING. EXPECT
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY COOLING
INTO THE UPPER 50S BY MIDNIGHT...AND THE UPPER 40S NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
DIMINISHING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. WILL USE MODEL BLEND
FOR TEMPS AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WITH SKY INCREASING SOUTH TO NORTH AFT 12Z TOMORROW. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP ATMS STABLE ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIP TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...IF ANY.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN AREA.

TOMORROW...12Z NAM BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN VALLEY
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...SPREADING NORTH TO ABOUT THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR
AND THEN STALLING. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA CLEAR
AND A RETURN OF MID 70S TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S SOUTH OF HWY 200. UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION.

TOMORROW NIGHT....MODELS TO FLIRT WITH SOME PRECIP SOUTH OF I 94
CORRIDOR IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS
ORIENTED SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE. HAVE PULLED POPS UNTIL 09Z SUN MORNING OTHER THAN
THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF CWA FOR BLENDING PURPOSES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST AND SOME SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH
INTO THE CWA HOWEVER ATMS REMAINS STABLE WITH VERY LOW MUCAPES
THROUGH SUN AND SUN NIGHT. MUCAPES FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHEN UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN TIER.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE H500 LOW TRACKS...COULD SEE ANOTHER COLD
AIR FUNNEL SCENARIO SET UP MON AFTN. HOWEVER MANY VARIABLES TO
CONSIDER THIS FAR OUT. WITH MODELS VARYING ON TRACK OF LOW AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WILL USE SUPERBLEND FOR POPS AND KEEP
LIKELIES MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. ALSO WILL GO WITH
STRAIGHT CONVECTION AS MUCAPES ARE ON THE RISE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE MAIN QUESTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN (ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
ALLOWS MORE MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY). THE SUPERBLEND EXTENDED
SOLUTION HAS POPS/WX MOST PERIODS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH THAT
SAID...MAINLY DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE TYPE ACTIVITY AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAINLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. INCREASING VFR CIGS INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND
AND WEST CENTRAL MN BY 18Z... WITH SCT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOWERS
AND ISOLD TSTMS AFT 20Z... MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE TWO RIVERS RIVER IN KITTSON COUNTY /NEAR HALLOCK/ WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW DECLINE...DROPPING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...RIVER FLOOD WARNING /MINOR/ CONTINUES FOR KITTSON COUNTY.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GUST
HYDROLOGY...HOPKINS



000
FXUS63 KFGF 230206
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
906 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NO SIG FORECAST UPDATES ARE NEEDED THIS LATE EVENING. EXPECT
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY COOLING
INTO THE UPPER 50S BY MIDNIGHT...AND THE UPPER 40S NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
DIMINISHING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. WILL USE MODEL BLEND
FOR TEMPS AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WITH SKY INCREASING SOUTH TO NORTH AFT 12Z TOMORROW. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP ATMS STABLE ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIP TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...IF ANY.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN AREA.

TOMORROW...12Z NAM BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN VALLEY
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...SPREADING NORTH TO ABOUT THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR
AND THEN STALLING. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA CLEAR
AND A RETURN OF MID 70S TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S SOUTH OF HWY 200. UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION.

TOMORROW NIGHT....MODELS TO FLIRT WITH SOME PRECIP SOUTH OF I 94
CORRIDOR IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS
ORIENTED SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE. HAVE PULLED POPS UNTIL 09Z SUN MORNING OTHER THAN
THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF CWA FOR BLENDING PURPOSES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST AND SOME SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH
INTO THE CWA HOWEVER ATMS REMAINS STABLE WITH VERY LOW MUCAPES
THROUGH SUN AND SUN NIGHT. MUCAPES FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHEN UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN TIER.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE H500 LOW TRACKS...COULD SEE ANOTHER COLD
AIR FUNNEL SCENARIO SET UP MON AFTN. HOWEVER MANY VARIABLES TO
CONSIDER THIS FAR OUT. WITH MODELS VARYING ON TRACK OF LOW AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WILL USE SUPERBLEND FOR POPS AND KEEP
LIKELIES MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. ALSO WILL GO WITH
STRAIGHT CONVECTION AS MUCAPES ARE ON THE RISE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE MAIN QUESTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN (ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
ALLOWS MORE MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY). THE SUPERBLEND EXTENDED
SOLUTION HAS POPS/WX MOST PERIODS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH THAT
SAID...MAINLY DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE TYPE ACTIVITY AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAINLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. INCREASING VFR CIGS INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND
AND WEST CENTRAL MN BY 18Z... WITH SCT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOWERS
AND ISOLD TSTMS AFT 20Z... MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE TWO RIVERS RIVER IN KITTSON COUNTY /NEAR HALLOCK/ WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW DECLINE...DROPPING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...RIVER FLOOD WARNING /MINOR/ CONTINUES FOR KITTSON COUNTY.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GUST
HYDROLOGY...HOPKINS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 230206
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
906 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NO SIG FORECAST UPDATES ARE NEEDED THIS LATE EVENING. EXPECT
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY COOLING
INTO THE UPPER 50S BY MIDNIGHT...AND THE UPPER 40S NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
DIMINISHING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. WILL USE MODEL BLEND
FOR TEMPS AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WITH SKY INCREASING SOUTH TO NORTH AFT 12Z TOMORROW. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP ATMS STABLE ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIP TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...IF ANY.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN AREA.

TOMORROW...12Z NAM BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN VALLEY
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...SPREADING NORTH TO ABOUT THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR
AND THEN STALLING. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA CLEAR
AND A RETURN OF MID 70S TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S SOUTH OF HWY 200. UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION.

TOMORROW NIGHT....MODELS TO FLIRT WITH SOME PRECIP SOUTH OF I 94
CORRIDOR IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS
ORIENTED SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE. HAVE PULLED POPS UNTIL 09Z SUN MORNING OTHER THAN
THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF CWA FOR BLENDING PURPOSES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST AND SOME SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH
INTO THE CWA HOWEVER ATMS REMAINS STABLE WITH VERY LOW MUCAPES
THROUGH SUN AND SUN NIGHT. MUCAPES FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHEN UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN TIER.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE H500 LOW TRACKS...COULD SEE ANOTHER COLD
AIR FUNNEL SCENARIO SET UP MON AFTN. HOWEVER MANY VARIABLES TO
CONSIDER THIS FAR OUT. WITH MODELS VARYING ON TRACK OF LOW AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WILL USE SUPERBLEND FOR POPS AND KEEP
LIKELIES MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. ALSO WILL GO WITH
STRAIGHT CONVECTION AS MUCAPES ARE ON THE RISE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE MAIN QUESTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN (ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
ALLOWS MORE MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY). THE SUPERBLEND EXTENDED
SOLUTION HAS POPS/WX MOST PERIODS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH THAT
SAID...MAINLY DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE TYPE ACTIVITY AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAINLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. INCREASING VFR CIGS INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND
AND WEST CENTRAL MN BY 18Z... WITH SCT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOWERS
AND ISOLD TSTMS AFT 20Z... MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE TWO RIVERS RIVER IN KITTSON COUNTY /NEAR HALLOCK/ WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW DECLINE...DROPPING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...RIVER FLOOD WARNING /MINOR/ CONTINUES FOR KITTSON COUNTY.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GUST
HYDROLOGY...HOPKINS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 230206
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
906 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NO SIG FORECAST UPDATES ARE NEEDED THIS LATE EVENING. EXPECT
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY COOLING
INTO THE UPPER 50S BY MIDNIGHT...AND THE UPPER 40S NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
DIMINISHING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. WILL USE MODEL BLEND
FOR TEMPS AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WITH SKY INCREASING SOUTH TO NORTH AFT 12Z TOMORROW. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP ATMS STABLE ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIP TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...IF ANY.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN AREA.

TOMORROW...12Z NAM BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN VALLEY
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...SPREADING NORTH TO ABOUT THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR
AND THEN STALLING. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA CLEAR
AND A RETURN OF MID 70S TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S SOUTH OF HWY 200. UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION.

TOMORROW NIGHT....MODELS TO FLIRT WITH SOME PRECIP SOUTH OF I 94
CORRIDOR IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS
ORIENTED SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE. HAVE PULLED POPS UNTIL 09Z SUN MORNING OTHER THAN
THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF CWA FOR BLENDING PURPOSES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST AND SOME SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH
INTO THE CWA HOWEVER ATMS REMAINS STABLE WITH VERY LOW MUCAPES
THROUGH SUN AND SUN NIGHT. MUCAPES FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHEN UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN TIER.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE H500 LOW TRACKS...COULD SEE ANOTHER COLD
AIR FUNNEL SCENARIO SET UP MON AFTN. HOWEVER MANY VARIABLES TO
CONSIDER THIS FAR OUT. WITH MODELS VARYING ON TRACK OF LOW AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WILL USE SUPERBLEND FOR POPS AND KEEP
LIKELIES MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. ALSO WILL GO WITH
STRAIGHT CONVECTION AS MUCAPES ARE ON THE RISE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE MAIN QUESTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN (ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
ALLOWS MORE MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY). THE SUPERBLEND EXTENDED
SOLUTION HAS POPS/WX MOST PERIODS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH THAT
SAID...MAINLY DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE TYPE ACTIVITY AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAINLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. INCREASING VFR CIGS INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND
AND WEST CENTRAL MN BY 18Z... WITH SCT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOWERS
AND ISOLD TSTMS AFT 20Z... MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE TWO RIVERS RIVER IN KITTSON COUNTY /NEAR HALLOCK/ WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW DECLINE...DROPPING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...RIVER FLOOD WARNING /MINOR/ CONTINUES FOR KITTSON COUNTY.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GUST
HYDROLOGY...HOPKINS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 230206
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
906 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NO SIG FORECAST UPDATES ARE NEEDED THIS LATE EVENING. EXPECT
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY COOLING
INTO THE UPPER 50S BY MIDNIGHT...AND THE UPPER 40S NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
DIMINISHING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. WILL USE MODEL BLEND
FOR TEMPS AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WITH SKY INCREASING SOUTH TO NORTH AFT 12Z TOMORROW. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP ATMS STABLE ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIP TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...IF ANY.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN AREA.

TOMORROW...12Z NAM BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN VALLEY
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...SPREADING NORTH TO ABOUT THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR
AND THEN STALLING. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA CLEAR
AND A RETURN OF MID 70S TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S SOUTH OF HWY 200. UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION.

TOMORROW NIGHT....MODELS TO FLIRT WITH SOME PRECIP SOUTH OF I 94
CORRIDOR IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS
ORIENTED SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE. HAVE PULLED POPS UNTIL 09Z SUN MORNING OTHER THAN
THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF CWA FOR BLENDING PURPOSES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST AND SOME SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH
INTO THE CWA HOWEVER ATMS REMAINS STABLE WITH VERY LOW MUCAPES
THROUGH SUN AND SUN NIGHT. MUCAPES FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHEN UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN TIER.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE H500 LOW TRACKS...COULD SEE ANOTHER COLD
AIR FUNNEL SCENARIO SET UP MON AFTN. HOWEVER MANY VARIABLES TO
CONSIDER THIS FAR OUT. WITH MODELS VARYING ON TRACK OF LOW AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WILL USE SUPERBLEND FOR POPS AND KEEP
LIKELIES MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. ALSO WILL GO WITH
STRAIGHT CONVECTION AS MUCAPES ARE ON THE RISE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE MAIN QUESTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN (ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
ALLOWS MORE MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY). THE SUPERBLEND EXTENDED
SOLUTION HAS POPS/WX MOST PERIODS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH THAT
SAID...MAINLY DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE TYPE ACTIVITY AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAINLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. INCREASING VFR CIGS INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND
AND WEST CENTRAL MN BY 18Z... WITH SCT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOWERS
AND ISOLD TSTMS AFT 20Z... MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE TWO RIVERS RIVER IN KITTSON COUNTY /NEAR HALLOCK/ WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW DECLINE...DROPPING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...RIVER FLOOD WARNING /MINOR/ CONTINUES FOR KITTSON COUNTY.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GUST
HYDROLOGY...HOPKINS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 222347
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
647 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NO SIG FORECAST UPDATES ARE NEEDED THIS EARLY EVENING. EXPECT
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
COOLING INTO THE UPPER 50S BY MIDNIGHT...AND THE UPPER 40S NEAR
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
DIMINISHING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. WILL USE MODEL BLEND
FOR TEMPS AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WITH SKY INCREASING SOUTH TO NORTH AFT 12Z TOMORROW. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP ATMS STABLE ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIP TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...IF ANY.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN AREA.

TOMORROW...12Z NAM BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN VALLEY
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...SPREADING NORTH TO ABOUT THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR
AND THEN STALLING. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA CLEAR
AND A RETURN OF MID 70S TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S SOUTH OF HWY 200. UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION.

TOMORROW NIGHT....MODELS TO FLIRT WITH SOME PRECIP SOUTH OF I 94
CORRIDOR IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS
ORIENTED SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE. HAVE PULLED POPS UNTIL 09Z SUN MORNING OTHER THAN
THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF CWA FOR BLENDING PURPOSES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST AND SOME SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH
INTO THE CWA HOWEVER ATMS REMAINS STABLE WITH VERY LOW MUCAPES
THROUGH SUN AND SUN NIGHT. MUCAPES FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHEN UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN TIER.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE H500 LOW TRACKS...COULD SEE ANOTHER COLD
AIR FUNNEL SCENARIO SET UP MON AFTN. HOWEVER MANY VARIABLES TO
CONSIDER THIS FAR OUT. WITH MODELS VARYING ON TRACK OF LOW AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WILL USE SUPERBLEND FOR POPS AND KEEP
LIKELIES MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. ALSO WILL GO WITH
STRAIGHT CONVECTION AS MUCAPES ARE ON THE RISE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE MAIN QUESTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN (ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
ALLOWS MORE MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY). THE SUPERBLEND EXTENDED
SOLUTION HAS POPS/WX MOST PERIODS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH THAT
SAID...MAINLY DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE TYPE ACTIVITY AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAINLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. INCREASING VFR CIGS INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND
AND WEST CENTRAL MN BY 18Z... WITH SCT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOWERS
AND ISOLD TSTMS AFT 20Z... MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE TWO RIVERS RIVER IN KITTSON COUNTY /NEAR HALLOCK/ WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW DECLINE...DROPPING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...MINOR RIVER FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES IN KITTSON COUNTY.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GUST
HYDROLOGY...HOPKINS



000
FXUS63 KFGF 222347
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
647 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NO SIG FORECAST UPDATES ARE NEEDED THIS EARLY EVENING. EXPECT
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
COOLING INTO THE UPPER 50S BY MIDNIGHT...AND THE UPPER 40S NEAR
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
DIMINISHING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. WILL USE MODEL BLEND
FOR TEMPS AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WITH SKY INCREASING SOUTH TO NORTH AFT 12Z TOMORROW. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP ATMS STABLE ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIP TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...IF ANY.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN AREA.

TOMORROW...12Z NAM BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN VALLEY
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...SPREADING NORTH TO ABOUT THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR
AND THEN STALLING. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA CLEAR
AND A RETURN OF MID 70S TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S SOUTH OF HWY 200. UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION.

TOMORROW NIGHT....MODELS TO FLIRT WITH SOME PRECIP SOUTH OF I 94
CORRIDOR IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS
ORIENTED SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE. HAVE PULLED POPS UNTIL 09Z SUN MORNING OTHER THAN
THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF CWA FOR BLENDING PURPOSES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST AND SOME SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH
INTO THE CWA HOWEVER ATMS REMAINS STABLE WITH VERY LOW MUCAPES
THROUGH SUN AND SUN NIGHT. MUCAPES FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHEN UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN TIER.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE H500 LOW TRACKS...COULD SEE ANOTHER COLD
AIR FUNNEL SCENARIO SET UP MON AFTN. HOWEVER MANY VARIABLES TO
CONSIDER THIS FAR OUT. WITH MODELS VARYING ON TRACK OF LOW AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WILL USE SUPERBLEND FOR POPS AND KEEP
LIKELIES MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. ALSO WILL GO WITH
STRAIGHT CONVECTION AS MUCAPES ARE ON THE RISE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE MAIN QUESTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN (ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
ALLOWS MORE MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY). THE SUPERBLEND EXTENDED
SOLUTION HAS POPS/WX MOST PERIODS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH THAT
SAID...MAINLY DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE TYPE ACTIVITY AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAINLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. INCREASING VFR CIGS INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND
AND WEST CENTRAL MN BY 18Z... WITH SCT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOWERS
AND ISOLD TSTMS AFT 20Z... MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE TWO RIVERS RIVER IN KITTSON COUNTY /NEAR HALLOCK/ WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW DECLINE...DROPPING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...MINOR RIVER FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES IN KITTSON COUNTY.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GUST
HYDROLOGY...HOPKINS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 222347
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
647 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NO SIG FORECAST UPDATES ARE NEEDED THIS EARLY EVENING. EXPECT
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
COOLING INTO THE UPPER 50S BY MIDNIGHT...AND THE UPPER 40S NEAR
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
DIMINISHING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. WILL USE MODEL BLEND
FOR TEMPS AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WITH SKY INCREASING SOUTH TO NORTH AFT 12Z TOMORROW. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP ATMS STABLE ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIP TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...IF ANY.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN AREA.

TOMORROW...12Z NAM BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN VALLEY
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...SPREADING NORTH TO ABOUT THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR
AND THEN STALLING. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA CLEAR
AND A RETURN OF MID 70S TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S SOUTH OF HWY 200. UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION.

TOMORROW NIGHT....MODELS TO FLIRT WITH SOME PRECIP SOUTH OF I 94
CORRIDOR IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS
ORIENTED SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE. HAVE PULLED POPS UNTIL 09Z SUN MORNING OTHER THAN
THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF CWA FOR BLENDING PURPOSES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST AND SOME SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH
INTO THE CWA HOWEVER ATMS REMAINS STABLE WITH VERY LOW MUCAPES
THROUGH SUN AND SUN NIGHT. MUCAPES FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHEN UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN TIER.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE H500 LOW TRACKS...COULD SEE ANOTHER COLD
AIR FUNNEL SCENARIO SET UP MON AFTN. HOWEVER MANY VARIABLES TO
CONSIDER THIS FAR OUT. WITH MODELS VARYING ON TRACK OF LOW AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WILL USE SUPERBLEND FOR POPS AND KEEP
LIKELIES MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. ALSO WILL GO WITH
STRAIGHT CONVECTION AS MUCAPES ARE ON THE RISE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE MAIN QUESTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN (ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
ALLOWS MORE MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY). THE SUPERBLEND EXTENDED
SOLUTION HAS POPS/WX MOST PERIODS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH THAT
SAID...MAINLY DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE TYPE ACTIVITY AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAINLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. INCREASING VFR CIGS INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND
AND WEST CENTRAL MN BY 18Z... WITH SCT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOWERS
AND ISOLD TSTMS AFT 20Z... MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE TWO RIVERS RIVER IN KITTSON COUNTY /NEAR HALLOCK/ WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW DECLINE...DROPPING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...MINOR RIVER FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES IN KITTSON COUNTY.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GUST
HYDROLOGY...HOPKINS



000
FXUS63 KFGF 222347
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
647 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NO SIG FORECAST UPDATES ARE NEEDED THIS EARLY EVENING. EXPECT
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
COOLING INTO THE UPPER 50S BY MIDNIGHT...AND THE UPPER 40S NEAR
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
DIMINISHING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. WILL USE MODEL BLEND
FOR TEMPS AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WITH SKY INCREASING SOUTH TO NORTH AFT 12Z TOMORROW. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP ATMS STABLE ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIP TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...IF ANY.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN AREA.

TOMORROW...12Z NAM BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN VALLEY
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...SPREADING NORTH TO ABOUT THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR
AND THEN STALLING. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA CLEAR
AND A RETURN OF MID 70S TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S SOUTH OF HWY 200. UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION.

TOMORROW NIGHT....MODELS TO FLIRT WITH SOME PRECIP SOUTH OF I 94
CORRIDOR IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS
ORIENTED SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE. HAVE PULLED POPS UNTIL 09Z SUN MORNING OTHER THAN
THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF CWA FOR BLENDING PURPOSES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST AND SOME SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH
INTO THE CWA HOWEVER ATMS REMAINS STABLE WITH VERY LOW MUCAPES
THROUGH SUN AND SUN NIGHT. MUCAPES FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHEN UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN TIER.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE H500 LOW TRACKS...COULD SEE ANOTHER COLD
AIR FUNNEL SCENARIO SET UP MON AFTN. HOWEVER MANY VARIABLES TO
CONSIDER THIS FAR OUT. WITH MODELS VARYING ON TRACK OF LOW AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WILL USE SUPERBLEND FOR POPS AND KEEP
LIKELIES MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. ALSO WILL GO WITH
STRAIGHT CONVECTION AS MUCAPES ARE ON THE RISE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE MAIN QUESTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN (ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
ALLOWS MORE MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY). THE SUPERBLEND EXTENDED
SOLUTION HAS POPS/WX MOST PERIODS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH THAT
SAID...MAINLY DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE TYPE ACTIVITY AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAINLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. INCREASING VFR CIGS INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND
AND WEST CENTRAL MN BY 18Z... WITH SCT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOWERS
AND ISOLD TSTMS AFT 20Z... MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE TWO RIVERS RIVER IN KITTSON COUNTY /NEAR HALLOCK/ WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW DECLINE...DROPPING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...MINOR RIVER FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES IN KITTSON COUNTY.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GUST
HYDROLOGY...HOPKINS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 222331
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
631 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS ON OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HAVE
KEPT TONIGHT DRY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND SLOWED THE INTRUSION
OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
NORTHWESTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN. SOUTHWEST OF THIS AXIS WINDS WERE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORTHEAST OF THIS LINE THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WERE AT 5 TO 15 MPH. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA MOVING NORTHWARD.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH THE UPPER
JET ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

THE MODELS CONTINUED TO DIFFER REGARDING THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE REGARDING
BRINGING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NORTHWARD AND INTO SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY NORTHWARD...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE IMPULSE IS WEAKER THAN
THAT OF THE GFS...AND WOULD INDICATE ANY RAINFALL WOULD BEGIN A
BIT LATER SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS WEAKEST AND SLOWEST OF ALL
AND SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

THE CONSENSUS WAS TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE MODEL
ENSEMBLES...AND BACKED OFF ON PRECIP AMOUNTS THAT WERE EARLIER FORECAST FOR
THE DAYTIME SATURDAY PERIOD.

THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BEGIN AROUND DAYBREAK
IN FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DAYTIME SATURDAY. ALSO LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...LESS THAN 0.10" FOR THE SATURDAY DAYTIME PERIOD.

THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TAKEN OUT FOR SATURDAY...AS LATEST MODELS
INDICATED MUCH LESS INSTABILITY AND FORCING EARLY ON IN THIS LARGE-SCALE
SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CONSENSUS AMONGST THE LONG TERM MODELS SHOW A POTENT JET STREAK
EJECTING THROUGH THE BASE OF A SOUTHWEST LONGWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. THE
EVOLUTION/PLACEMENT OF A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT LIKELY POPS WARRANTED IN THE
FAR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND RESULTANT UPPER LOW TRACKING
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE ECMWF IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND AND EAST. THE CANADIAN GEM IS
IN MIDDLE. THUS USED A BLEND OF THE MODEL SUITE IN COMBINATION WITH
QPF FROM WPC. THIS PLACES THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY MORNING OF AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THE REST OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 1.20
INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL TAPERS OFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE FAR NORTH
AROUND A HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION. OVERALL THIS SHOULD BE A DECENT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY. BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS INTO KDIK AND KBIS
16-18Z SATURDAY...WITH VFR SHOWERS INTO KJMS AROUND 21 UTC
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS OUT OF
NORTHERN TAF SITES KISN AND KMOT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 222331
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
631 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS ON OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HAVE
KEPT TONIGHT DRY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND SLOWED THE INTRUSION
OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
NORTHWESTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN. SOUTHWEST OF THIS AXIS WINDS WERE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORTHEAST OF THIS LINE THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WERE AT 5 TO 15 MPH. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA MOVING NORTHWARD.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH THE UPPER
JET ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

THE MODELS CONTINUED TO DIFFER REGARDING THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE REGARDING
BRINGING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NORTHWARD AND INTO SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY NORTHWARD...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE IMPULSE IS WEAKER THAN
THAT OF THE GFS...AND WOULD INDICATE ANY RAINFALL WOULD BEGIN A
BIT LATER SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS WEAKEST AND SLOWEST OF ALL
AND SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

THE CONSENSUS WAS TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE MODEL
ENSEMBLES...AND BACKED OFF ON PRECIP AMOUNTS THAT WERE EARLIER FORECAST FOR
THE DAYTIME SATURDAY PERIOD.

THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BEGIN AROUND DAYBREAK
IN FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DAYTIME SATURDAY. ALSO LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...LESS THAN 0.10" FOR THE SATURDAY DAYTIME PERIOD.

THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TAKEN OUT FOR SATURDAY...AS LATEST MODELS
INDICATED MUCH LESS INSTABILITY AND FORCING EARLY ON IN THIS LARGE-SCALE
SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CONSENSUS AMONGST THE LONG TERM MODELS SHOW A POTENT JET STREAK
EJECTING THROUGH THE BASE OF A SOUTHWEST LONGWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. THE
EVOLUTION/PLACEMENT OF A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT LIKELY POPS WARRANTED IN THE
FAR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND RESULTANT UPPER LOW TRACKING
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE ECMWF IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND AND EAST. THE CANADIAN GEM IS
IN MIDDLE. THUS USED A BLEND OF THE MODEL SUITE IN COMBINATION WITH
QPF FROM WPC. THIS PLACES THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY MORNING OF AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THE REST OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 1.20
INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL TAPERS OFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE FAR NORTH
AROUND A HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION. OVERALL THIS SHOULD BE A DECENT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY. BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS INTO KDIK AND KBIS
16-18Z SATURDAY...WITH VFR SHOWERS INTO KJMS AROUND 21 UTC
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS OUT OF
NORTHERN TAF SITES KISN AND KMOT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 222331
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
631 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS ON OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HAVE
KEPT TONIGHT DRY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND SLOWED THE INTRUSION
OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
NORTHWESTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN. SOUTHWEST OF THIS AXIS WINDS WERE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORTHEAST OF THIS LINE THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WERE AT 5 TO 15 MPH. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA MOVING NORTHWARD.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH THE UPPER
JET ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

THE MODELS CONTINUED TO DIFFER REGARDING THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE REGARDING
BRINGING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NORTHWARD AND INTO SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY NORTHWARD...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE IMPULSE IS WEAKER THAN
THAT OF THE GFS...AND WOULD INDICATE ANY RAINFALL WOULD BEGIN A
BIT LATER SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS WEAKEST AND SLOWEST OF ALL
AND SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

THE CONSENSUS WAS TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE MODEL
ENSEMBLES...AND BACKED OFF ON PRECIP AMOUNTS THAT WERE EARLIER FORECAST FOR
THE DAYTIME SATURDAY PERIOD.

THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BEGIN AROUND DAYBREAK
IN FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DAYTIME SATURDAY. ALSO LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...LESS THAN 0.10" FOR THE SATURDAY DAYTIME PERIOD.

THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TAKEN OUT FOR SATURDAY...AS LATEST MODELS
INDICATED MUCH LESS INSTABILITY AND FORCING EARLY ON IN THIS LARGE-SCALE
SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CONSENSUS AMONGST THE LONG TERM MODELS SHOW A POTENT JET STREAK
EJECTING THROUGH THE BASE OF A SOUTHWEST LONGWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. THE
EVOLUTION/PLACEMENT OF A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT LIKELY POPS WARRANTED IN THE
FAR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND RESULTANT UPPER LOW TRACKING
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE ECMWF IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND AND EAST. THE CANADIAN GEM IS
IN MIDDLE. THUS USED A BLEND OF THE MODEL SUITE IN COMBINATION WITH
QPF FROM WPC. THIS PLACES THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY MORNING OF AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THE REST OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 1.20
INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL TAPERS OFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE FAR NORTH
AROUND A HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION. OVERALL THIS SHOULD BE A DECENT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY. BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS INTO KDIK AND KBIS
16-18Z SATURDAY...WITH VFR SHOWERS INTO KJMS AROUND 21 UTC
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS OUT OF
NORTHERN TAF SITES KISN AND KMOT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 222331
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
631 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS ON OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HAVE
KEPT TONIGHT DRY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND SLOWED THE INTRUSION
OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
NORTHWESTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN. SOUTHWEST OF THIS AXIS WINDS WERE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORTHEAST OF THIS LINE THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WERE AT 5 TO 15 MPH. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA MOVING NORTHWARD.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH THE UPPER
JET ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

THE MODELS CONTINUED TO DIFFER REGARDING THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE REGARDING
BRINGING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NORTHWARD AND INTO SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY NORTHWARD...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE IMPULSE IS WEAKER THAN
THAT OF THE GFS...AND WOULD INDICATE ANY RAINFALL WOULD BEGIN A
BIT LATER SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS WEAKEST AND SLOWEST OF ALL
AND SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

THE CONSENSUS WAS TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE MODEL
ENSEMBLES...AND BACKED OFF ON PRECIP AMOUNTS THAT WERE EARLIER FORECAST FOR
THE DAYTIME SATURDAY PERIOD.

THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BEGIN AROUND DAYBREAK
IN FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DAYTIME SATURDAY. ALSO LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...LESS THAN 0.10" FOR THE SATURDAY DAYTIME PERIOD.

THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TAKEN OUT FOR SATURDAY...AS LATEST MODELS
INDICATED MUCH LESS INSTABILITY AND FORCING EARLY ON IN THIS LARGE-SCALE
SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CONSENSUS AMONGST THE LONG TERM MODELS SHOW A POTENT JET STREAK
EJECTING THROUGH THE BASE OF A SOUTHWEST LONGWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. THE
EVOLUTION/PLACEMENT OF A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT LIKELY POPS WARRANTED IN THE
FAR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND RESULTANT UPPER LOW TRACKING
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE ECMWF IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND AND EAST. THE CANADIAN GEM IS
IN MIDDLE. THUS USED A BLEND OF THE MODEL SUITE IN COMBINATION WITH
QPF FROM WPC. THIS PLACES THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY MORNING OF AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THE REST OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 1.20
INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL TAPERS OFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE FAR NORTH
AROUND A HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION. OVERALL THIS SHOULD BE A DECENT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY. BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS INTO KDIK AND KBIS
16-18Z SATURDAY...WITH VFR SHOWERS INTO KJMS AROUND 21 UTC
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS OUT OF
NORTHERN TAF SITES KISN AND KMOT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 221943
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
243 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
NORTHWESTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN. SOUTHWEST OF THIS AXIS WINDS WERE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORTHEAST OF THIS LINE THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WERE AT 5 TO 15 MPH. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA MOVING NORTHWARD.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH THE UPPER
JET ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

THE MODELS CONTINUED TO DIFFER REGARDING THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE REGARDING
BRINGING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NORTHWARD AND INTO SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY NORTHWARD...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE IMPULSE IS WEAKER THAN
THAT OF THE GFS...AND WOULD INDICATE ANY RAINFALL WOULD BEGIN A
BIT LATER SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS WEAKEST AND SLOWEST OF ALL
AND SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

THE CONSENSUS WAS TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE MODEL
ENSEMBLES...AND BACKED OFF ON PRECIP AMOUNTS THAT WERE EARLIER FORECAST FOR
THE DAYTIME SATURDAY PERIOD.

THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BEGIN AROUND DAYBREAK
IN FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DAYTIME SATURDAY. ALSO LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...LESS THAN 0.10" FOR THE SATURDAY DAYTIME PERIOD.

THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TAKEN OUT FOR SATURDAY...AS LATEST MODELS
INDICATED MUCH LESS INSTABILITY AND FORCING EARLY ON IN THIS LARGE-SCALE
SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CONSENSUS AMONGST THE LONG TERM MODELS SHOW A POTENT JET STREAK
EJECTING THROUGH THE BASE OF A SOUTHWEST LONGWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. THE
EVOLUTION/PLACEMENT OF A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT LIKELY POPS WARRANTED IN THE
FAR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND RESULTANT UPPER LOW TRACKING
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE ECMWF IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND AND EAST. THE CANADIAN GEM IS
IN MIDDLE. THUS USED A BLEND OF THE MODEL SUITE IN COMBINATION WITH
QPF FROM WPC. THIS PLACES THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY MORNING OF AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THE REST OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 1.20
INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL TAPERS OFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE FAR NORTH
AROUND A HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION. OVERALL THIS SHOULD BE A DECENT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT KDIK WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 12 TO 17 KNOTS AT OTHER TAF SITES.
WINDS TO DECREASE AFT 01Z. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LATE TONIGHT WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWARD...BRINGING CHANCES OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS TO SOUTHERN
TAF SITES MAINLY AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KBIS 221943
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
243 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
NORTHWESTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN. SOUTHWEST OF THIS AXIS WINDS WERE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORTHEAST OF THIS LINE THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WERE AT 5 TO 15 MPH. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA MOVING NORTHWARD.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH THE UPPER
JET ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

THE MODELS CONTINUED TO DIFFER REGARDING THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE REGARDING
BRINGING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NORTHWARD AND INTO SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY NORTHWARD...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE IMPULSE IS WEAKER THAN
THAT OF THE GFS...AND WOULD INDICATE ANY RAINFALL WOULD BEGIN A
BIT LATER SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS WEAKEST AND SLOWEST OF ALL
AND SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

THE CONSENSUS WAS TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE MODEL
ENSEMBLES...AND BACKED OFF ON PRECIP AMOUNTS THAT WERE EARLIER FORECAST FOR
THE DAYTIME SATURDAY PERIOD.

THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BEGIN AROUND DAYBREAK
IN FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DAYTIME SATURDAY. ALSO LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...LESS THAN 0.10" FOR THE SATURDAY DAYTIME PERIOD.

THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TAKEN OUT FOR SATURDAY...AS LATEST MODELS
INDICATED MUCH LESS INSTABILITY AND FORCING EARLY ON IN THIS LARGE-SCALE
SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CONSENSUS AMONGST THE LONG TERM MODELS SHOW A POTENT JET STREAK
EJECTING THROUGH THE BASE OF A SOUTHWEST LONGWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. THE
EVOLUTION/PLACEMENT OF A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT LIKELY POPS WARRANTED IN THE
FAR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND RESULTANT UPPER LOW TRACKING
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE ECMWF IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND AND EAST. THE CANADIAN GEM IS
IN MIDDLE. THUS USED A BLEND OF THE MODEL SUITE IN COMBINATION WITH
QPF FROM WPC. THIS PLACES THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY MORNING OF AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THE REST OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 1.20
INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL TAPERS OFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE FAR NORTH
AROUND A HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION. OVERALL THIS SHOULD BE A DECENT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT KDIK WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 12 TO 17 KNOTS AT OTHER TAF SITES.
WINDS TO DECREASE AFT 01Z. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LATE TONIGHT WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWARD...BRINGING CHANCES OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS TO SOUTHERN
TAF SITES MAINLY AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KFGF 221934
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
234 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
DIMINISHING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. WILL USE MODEL BLEND
FOR TEMPS AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WITH SKY INCREASING SOUTH TO NORTH AFT 12Z TOMORROW. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP ATMS STABLE ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIP TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...IF ANY.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN AREA.

TOMORROW...12Z NAM BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN VALLEY
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...SPREADING NORTH TO ABOUT THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR
AND THEN STALLING. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA CLEAR
AND A RETURN OF MID 70S TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S SOUTH OF HWY 200. UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION.

TOMORROW NIGHT....MODELS TO FLIRT WITH SOME PRECIP SOUTH OF I 94
CORRIDOR IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS
ORIENTED SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE. HAVE PULLED POPS UNTIL 09Z SUN MORNING OTHER THAN
THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF CWA FOR BLENDING PURPOSES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST AND SOME SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH
INTO THE CWA HOWEVER ATMS REMAINS STABLE WITH VERY LOW MUCAPES
THROUGH SUN AND SUN NIGHT. MUCAPES FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHEN UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN TIER.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE H500 LOW TRACKS...COULD SEE ANOTHER COLD
AIR FUNNEL SCENARIO SET UP MON AFTN. HOWEVER MANY VARIABLES TO
CONSIDER THIS FAR OUT. WITH MODELS VARYING ON TRACK OF LOW AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WILL USE SUPERBLEND FOR POPS AND KEEP
LIKELIES MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. ALSO WILL GO WITH
STRAIGHT CONVECTION AS MUCAPES ARE ON THE RISE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE MAIN QUESTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN (ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
ALLOWS MORE MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY). THE SUPERBLEND EXTENDED
SOLUTION HAS POPS/WX MOST PERIODS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH THAT
SAID...MAINLY DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE TYPE ACTIVITY AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 221934
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
234 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
DIMINISHING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. WILL USE MODEL BLEND
FOR TEMPS AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WITH SKY INCREASING SOUTH TO NORTH AFT 12Z TOMORROW. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP ATMS STABLE ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIP TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...IF ANY.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN AREA.

TOMORROW...12Z NAM BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN VALLEY
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...SPREADING NORTH TO ABOUT THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR
AND THEN STALLING. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA CLEAR
AND A RETURN OF MID 70S TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S SOUTH OF HWY 200. UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION.

TOMORROW NIGHT....MODELS TO FLIRT WITH SOME PRECIP SOUTH OF I 94
CORRIDOR IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS
ORIENTED SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE. HAVE PULLED POPS UNTIL 09Z SUN MORNING OTHER THAN
THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF CWA FOR BLENDING PURPOSES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST AND SOME SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH
INTO THE CWA HOWEVER ATMS REMAINS STABLE WITH VERY LOW MUCAPES
THROUGH SUN AND SUN NIGHT. MUCAPES FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHEN UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN TIER.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE H500 LOW TRACKS...COULD SEE ANOTHER COLD
AIR FUNNEL SCENARIO SET UP MON AFTN. HOWEVER MANY VARIABLES TO
CONSIDER THIS FAR OUT. WITH MODELS VARYING ON TRACK OF LOW AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WILL USE SUPERBLEND FOR POPS AND KEEP
LIKELIES MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. ALSO WILL GO WITH
STRAIGHT CONVECTION AS MUCAPES ARE ON THE RISE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE MAIN QUESTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN (ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
ALLOWS MORE MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY). THE SUPERBLEND EXTENDED
SOLUTION HAS POPS/WX MOST PERIODS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH THAT
SAID...MAINLY DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE TYPE ACTIVITY AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 221934
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
234 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
DIMINISHING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. WILL USE MODEL BLEND
FOR TEMPS AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WITH SKY INCREASING SOUTH TO NORTH AFT 12Z TOMORROW. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP ATMS STABLE ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIP TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...IF ANY.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN AREA.

TOMORROW...12Z NAM BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN VALLEY
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...SPREADING NORTH TO ABOUT THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR
AND THEN STALLING. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA CLEAR
AND A RETURN OF MID 70S TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S SOUTH OF HWY 200. UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION.

TOMORROW NIGHT....MODELS TO FLIRT WITH SOME PRECIP SOUTH OF I 94
CORRIDOR IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS
ORIENTED SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE. HAVE PULLED POPS UNTIL 09Z SUN MORNING OTHER THAN
THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF CWA FOR BLENDING PURPOSES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST AND SOME SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH
INTO THE CWA HOWEVER ATMS REMAINS STABLE WITH VERY LOW MUCAPES
THROUGH SUN AND SUN NIGHT. MUCAPES FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHEN UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN TIER.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE H500 LOW TRACKS...COULD SEE ANOTHER COLD
AIR FUNNEL SCENARIO SET UP MON AFTN. HOWEVER MANY VARIABLES TO
CONSIDER THIS FAR OUT. WITH MODELS VARYING ON TRACK OF LOW AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WILL USE SUPERBLEND FOR POPS AND KEEP
LIKELIES MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. ALSO WILL GO WITH
STRAIGHT CONVECTION AS MUCAPES ARE ON THE RISE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE MAIN QUESTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN (ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
ALLOWS MORE MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY). THE SUPERBLEND EXTENDED
SOLUTION HAS POPS/WX MOST PERIODS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH THAT
SAID...MAINLY DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE TYPE ACTIVITY AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 221934
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
234 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
DIMINISHING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. WILL USE MODEL BLEND
FOR TEMPS AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WITH SKY INCREASING SOUTH TO NORTH AFT 12Z TOMORROW. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP ATMS STABLE ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIP TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...IF ANY.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN AREA.

TOMORROW...12Z NAM BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN VALLEY
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...SPREADING NORTH TO ABOUT THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR
AND THEN STALLING. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA CLEAR
AND A RETURN OF MID 70S TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S SOUTH OF HWY 200. UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION.

TOMORROW NIGHT....MODELS TO FLIRT WITH SOME PRECIP SOUTH OF I 94
CORRIDOR IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS
ORIENTED SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE. HAVE PULLED POPS UNTIL 09Z SUN MORNING OTHER THAN
THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF CWA FOR BLENDING PURPOSES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST AND SOME SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH
INTO THE CWA HOWEVER ATMS REMAINS STABLE WITH VERY LOW MUCAPES
THROUGH SUN AND SUN NIGHT. MUCAPES FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHEN UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN TIER.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE H500 LOW TRACKS...COULD SEE ANOTHER COLD
AIR FUNNEL SCENARIO SET UP MON AFTN. HOWEVER MANY VARIABLES TO
CONSIDER THIS FAR OUT. WITH MODELS VARYING ON TRACK OF LOW AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WILL USE SUPERBLEND FOR POPS AND KEEP
LIKELIES MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. ALSO WILL GO WITH
STRAIGHT CONVECTION AS MUCAPES ARE ON THE RISE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE MAIN QUESTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN (ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
ALLOWS MORE MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY). THE SUPERBLEND EXTENDED
SOLUTION HAS POPS/WX MOST PERIODS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH THAT
SAID...MAINLY DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE TYPE ACTIVITY AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 221807
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
107 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

12Z GFS ALSO DELAYING PRECIP FOR SYSTEM EXPECTING TO SPREADS
SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. DELAYED
FURTHER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. MORE DISCUSSION ON 4 PM FCST
ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL DECREASE SKY
COVER TO 0 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTN. TEMPERATURES MAIN CONCERN TODAY...AND
FCST TRENDS ON TRACK SO NO PLANNED CHANGES.

FOR TOMORROW...GFS ONLY MODEL SHOWING PRECIP LIFTING OUT OF THE
CNTRL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN VALLEY PRIOR TO 18Z. 12Z NAM HAS ALSO
CAME IN DRY SATURDAY MORNING...AND DECIDED TO REMOVE CHANCE POPS
(WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN UNTIL SEEING 12Z GFS) THROUGH 18Z. NOT
ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THE LLJ REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF CWA AT 12Z ALTHOUGH DOES INCREASE TO 25KT IN NE SD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER AS WELL WITH MOST AREAS 70-75 FOR THE
AFTERNOON HIGH. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM ENTERING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL START TO SPREAD NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT DO RUN INTO THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE SIT ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WITH HIGH IN PLACE...PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF IN
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIP NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. 00Z GFS
SLOWER AS WELL. NET RESULT WAS TO GO DRY ALL AREAS TONIGHT THEN
RESTRICT POPS SATURDAY TO ONLY THE SOUTH HALF. EVEN THIS MAY BE
TOO AGGRESSIVE. OVERALL FEEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
SPREADING NORTH. RESULT IS WARMER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS NORTH
SATURDAY AND A BIT CLOUDIER AND COOLER SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE INTO SUNDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH ANY PRECIP WILL
GET. ONCE AGAIN HIGH IN PLACE NR THE CANADIAN BORDER SO MOISTURE
WILL RUN INTO A BRICK WALL. THUS KEPT FAR NRN AREAS DRY THRU
SUNDAY WITH LOW POPS ALONG HWY 2 AND HIGHER POPS SOUTH. THE
PLACEMENT OF POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TWEAKED IN FUTURE FCSTS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN QUESTION FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RATE OF EASTWARD PROGRESS OF PROTECTIVE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT BY
MEMORIAL DAY THIS WILL BE EVIDENT AS HIGH PLAINS TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. SO THE SIGNAL FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EVIDENT...BUT LACK OF ANY SURFACE REFLECTION THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS PRECLUDES CONFIDENT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME. KEPT EXISTING SHRA GRIDS INTACT DURING MOST PERIODS
WITH OCCASIONAL MENTION OF ISO TSRA. LONGER WAVE TROUGH INDICATED
BY ECMWF BY THURSDAY COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH GFS...BUT IF
CORRECT WOULD OFFER GREATER PCPN/THUNDER CHANCES AT END OF TIME
FRAME. HIGHS IN 60S MEMORIAL DAY OWING TO CLOUDS/PCPN SHOULD
TRANSITION TO 70S TUE-THU AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE SPORADIC.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015



&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG



000
FXUS63 KFGF 221807
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
107 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

12Z GFS ALSO DELAYING PRECIP FOR SYSTEM EXPECTING TO SPREADS
SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. DELAYED
FURTHER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. MORE DISCUSSION ON 4 PM FCST
ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL DECREASE SKY
COVER TO 0 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTN. TEMPERATURES MAIN CONCERN TODAY...AND
FCST TRENDS ON TRACK SO NO PLANNED CHANGES.

FOR TOMORROW...GFS ONLY MODEL SHOWING PRECIP LIFTING OUT OF THE
CNTRL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN VALLEY PRIOR TO 18Z. 12Z NAM HAS ALSO
CAME IN DRY SATURDAY MORNING...AND DECIDED TO REMOVE CHANCE POPS
(WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN UNTIL SEEING 12Z GFS) THROUGH 18Z. NOT
ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THE LLJ REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF CWA AT 12Z ALTHOUGH DOES INCREASE TO 25KT IN NE SD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER AS WELL WITH MOST AREAS 70-75 FOR THE
AFTERNOON HIGH. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM ENTERING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL START TO SPREAD NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT DO RUN INTO THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE SIT ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WITH HIGH IN PLACE...PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF IN
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIP NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. 00Z GFS
SLOWER AS WELL. NET RESULT WAS TO GO DRY ALL AREAS TONIGHT THEN
RESTRICT POPS SATURDAY TO ONLY THE SOUTH HALF. EVEN THIS MAY BE
TOO AGGRESSIVE. OVERALL FEEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
SPREADING NORTH. RESULT IS WARMER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS NORTH
SATURDAY AND A BIT CLOUDIER AND COOLER SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE INTO SUNDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH ANY PRECIP WILL
GET. ONCE AGAIN HIGH IN PLACE NR THE CANADIAN BORDER SO MOISTURE
WILL RUN INTO A BRICK WALL. THUS KEPT FAR NRN AREAS DRY THRU
SUNDAY WITH LOW POPS ALONG HWY 2 AND HIGHER POPS SOUTH. THE
PLACEMENT OF POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TWEAKED IN FUTURE FCSTS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN QUESTION FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RATE OF EASTWARD PROGRESS OF PROTECTIVE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT BY
MEMORIAL DAY THIS WILL BE EVIDENT AS HIGH PLAINS TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. SO THE SIGNAL FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EVIDENT...BUT LACK OF ANY SURFACE REFLECTION THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS PRECLUDES CONFIDENT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME. KEPT EXISTING SHRA GRIDS INTACT DURING MOST PERIODS
WITH OCCASIONAL MENTION OF ISO TSRA. LONGER WAVE TROUGH INDICATED
BY ECMWF BY THURSDAY COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH GFS...BUT IF
CORRECT WOULD OFFER GREATER PCPN/THUNDER CHANCES AT END OF TIME
FRAME. HIGHS IN 60S MEMORIAL DAY OWING TO CLOUDS/PCPN SHOULD
TRANSITION TO 70S TUE-THU AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE SPORADIC.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015



&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG



000
FXUS63 KFGF 221807
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
107 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

12Z GFS ALSO DELAYING PRECIP FOR SYSTEM EXPECTING TO SPREADS
SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. DELAYED
FURTHER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. MORE DISCUSSION ON 4 PM FCST
ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL DECREASE SKY
COVER TO 0 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTN. TEMPERATURES MAIN CONCERN TODAY...AND
FCST TRENDS ON TRACK SO NO PLANNED CHANGES.

FOR TOMORROW...GFS ONLY MODEL SHOWING PRECIP LIFTING OUT OF THE
CNTRL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN VALLEY PRIOR TO 18Z. 12Z NAM HAS ALSO
CAME IN DRY SATURDAY MORNING...AND DECIDED TO REMOVE CHANCE POPS
(WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN UNTIL SEEING 12Z GFS) THROUGH 18Z. NOT
ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THE LLJ REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF CWA AT 12Z ALTHOUGH DOES INCREASE TO 25KT IN NE SD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER AS WELL WITH MOST AREAS 70-75 FOR THE
AFTERNOON HIGH. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM ENTERING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL START TO SPREAD NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT DO RUN INTO THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE SIT ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WITH HIGH IN PLACE...PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF IN
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIP NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. 00Z GFS
SLOWER AS WELL. NET RESULT WAS TO GO DRY ALL AREAS TONIGHT THEN
RESTRICT POPS SATURDAY TO ONLY THE SOUTH HALF. EVEN THIS MAY BE
TOO AGGRESSIVE. OVERALL FEEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
SPREADING NORTH. RESULT IS WARMER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS NORTH
SATURDAY AND A BIT CLOUDIER AND COOLER SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE INTO SUNDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH ANY PRECIP WILL
GET. ONCE AGAIN HIGH IN PLACE NR THE CANADIAN BORDER SO MOISTURE
WILL RUN INTO A BRICK WALL. THUS KEPT FAR NRN AREAS DRY THRU
SUNDAY WITH LOW POPS ALONG HWY 2 AND HIGHER POPS SOUTH. THE
PLACEMENT OF POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TWEAKED IN FUTURE FCSTS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN QUESTION FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RATE OF EASTWARD PROGRESS OF PROTECTIVE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT BY
MEMORIAL DAY THIS WILL BE EVIDENT AS HIGH PLAINS TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. SO THE SIGNAL FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EVIDENT...BUT LACK OF ANY SURFACE REFLECTION THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS PRECLUDES CONFIDENT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME. KEPT EXISTING SHRA GRIDS INTACT DURING MOST PERIODS
WITH OCCASIONAL MENTION OF ISO TSRA. LONGER WAVE TROUGH INDICATED
BY ECMWF BY THURSDAY COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH GFS...BUT IF
CORRECT WOULD OFFER GREATER PCPN/THUNDER CHANCES AT END OF TIME
FRAME. HIGHS IN 60S MEMORIAL DAY OWING TO CLOUDS/PCPN SHOULD
TRANSITION TO 70S TUE-THU AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE SPORADIC.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015



&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 221807
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
107 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

12Z GFS ALSO DELAYING PRECIP FOR SYSTEM EXPECTING TO SPREADS
SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. DELAYED
FURTHER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. MORE DISCUSSION ON 4 PM FCST
ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL DECREASE SKY
COVER TO 0 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTN. TEMPERATURES MAIN CONCERN TODAY...AND
FCST TRENDS ON TRACK SO NO PLANNED CHANGES.

FOR TOMORROW...GFS ONLY MODEL SHOWING PRECIP LIFTING OUT OF THE
CNTRL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN VALLEY PRIOR TO 18Z. 12Z NAM HAS ALSO
CAME IN DRY SATURDAY MORNING...AND DECIDED TO REMOVE CHANCE POPS
(WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN UNTIL SEEING 12Z GFS) THROUGH 18Z. NOT
ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THE LLJ REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF CWA AT 12Z ALTHOUGH DOES INCREASE TO 25KT IN NE SD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER AS WELL WITH MOST AREAS 70-75 FOR THE
AFTERNOON HIGH. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM ENTERING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL START TO SPREAD NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT DO RUN INTO THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE SIT ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WITH HIGH IN PLACE...PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF IN
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIP NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. 00Z GFS
SLOWER AS WELL. NET RESULT WAS TO GO DRY ALL AREAS TONIGHT THEN
RESTRICT POPS SATURDAY TO ONLY THE SOUTH HALF. EVEN THIS MAY BE
TOO AGGRESSIVE. OVERALL FEEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
SPREADING NORTH. RESULT IS WARMER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS NORTH
SATURDAY AND A BIT CLOUDIER AND COOLER SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE INTO SUNDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH ANY PRECIP WILL
GET. ONCE AGAIN HIGH IN PLACE NR THE CANADIAN BORDER SO MOISTURE
WILL RUN INTO A BRICK WALL. THUS KEPT FAR NRN AREAS DRY THRU
SUNDAY WITH LOW POPS ALONG HWY 2 AND HIGHER POPS SOUTH. THE
PLACEMENT OF POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TWEAKED IN FUTURE FCSTS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN QUESTION FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RATE OF EASTWARD PROGRESS OF PROTECTIVE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT BY
MEMORIAL DAY THIS WILL BE EVIDENT AS HIGH PLAINS TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. SO THE SIGNAL FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EVIDENT...BUT LACK OF ANY SURFACE REFLECTION THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS PRECLUDES CONFIDENT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME. KEPT EXISTING SHRA GRIDS INTACT DURING MOST PERIODS
WITH OCCASIONAL MENTION OF ISO TSRA. LONGER WAVE TROUGH INDICATED
BY ECMWF BY THURSDAY COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH GFS...BUT IF
CORRECT WOULD OFFER GREATER PCPN/THUNDER CHANCES AT END OF TIME
FRAME. HIGHS IN 60S MEMORIAL DAY OWING TO CLOUDS/PCPN SHOULD
TRANSITION TO 70S TUE-THU AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE SPORADIC.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015



&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KBIS 221725
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1225 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THIS UPDATE ADJUSTED WINDS. SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...WINDS WERE ALREADY SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY.
NORTH AND EAST OF THE RIVER...WIND DIRECTION OF SOUTHEAST WAS JUST
BECOMING ESTABLISHED AT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH MOST LOCALES. EXPECT
THESE WINDS TO BECOME STEADY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
MPH...PERHAPS WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO ADJUSTED
DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WAS
MIXING AND DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT AT NOON CDT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ONLY ADJUSTMENTS THIS UPDATE WAS FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND WIND
CONDITIONS. WINDS WERE A TAD LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED...BUT SHOULD
BECOME MORE WELL DEFINED IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY
LATER THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND ADD A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE LATEST
EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY`S WEATHER FOR TODAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS USHER IN WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE ONLY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY WILL BE
THE WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUD COVER. BY THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 MPH AND CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION...HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A H5 LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH SHORTWAVES LIFTING INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST WAVE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS VERSIONS. WILL SLOW THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS
FOR SATURDAY BY TRIMMING THEIR NORTHERN EXTENT...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY IS WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO
WILL KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED.

MODEL DIFFERENCES LEAD TO LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF. THIS IN PART LEADS TO HIGHER QPF
FROM THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A MODEL
BLEND FOR SUNDAY...WHICH STILL HOLDS ONTO FAIRLY HIGH POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE NORTH MAY NOT SEE MUCH
RAIN...EVEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.

THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE LARGE H5 TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE PLACES THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THEY FORECAST 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.  FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS IN THE NORTH
WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH DEPICTED.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...BUT A LARGE H5
TROUGH AGAIN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT KDIK WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 12 TO 17 KNOTS AT OTHER TAF SITES.
WINDS TO DECREASE AFT 01Z. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LATE TONIGHT WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWARD...BRINGING CHANCES OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS TO SOUTHERN
TAF SITES MAINLY AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 221725
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1225 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THIS UPDATE ADJUSTED WINDS. SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...WINDS WERE ALREADY SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY.
NORTH AND EAST OF THE RIVER...WIND DIRECTION OF SOUTHEAST WAS JUST
BECOMING ESTABLISHED AT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH MOST LOCALES. EXPECT
THESE WINDS TO BECOME STEADY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
MPH...PERHAPS WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO ADJUSTED
DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WAS
MIXING AND DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT AT NOON CDT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ONLY ADJUSTMENTS THIS UPDATE WAS FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND WIND
CONDITIONS. WINDS WERE A TAD LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED...BUT SHOULD
BECOME MORE WELL DEFINED IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY
LATER THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND ADD A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE LATEST
EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY`S WEATHER FOR TODAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS USHER IN WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE ONLY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY WILL BE
THE WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUD COVER. BY THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 MPH AND CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION...HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A H5 LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH SHORTWAVES LIFTING INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST WAVE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS VERSIONS. WILL SLOW THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS
FOR SATURDAY BY TRIMMING THEIR NORTHERN EXTENT...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY IS WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO
WILL KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED.

MODEL DIFFERENCES LEAD TO LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF. THIS IN PART LEADS TO HIGHER QPF
FROM THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A MODEL
BLEND FOR SUNDAY...WHICH STILL HOLDS ONTO FAIRLY HIGH POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE NORTH MAY NOT SEE MUCH
RAIN...EVEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.

THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE LARGE H5 TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE PLACES THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THEY FORECAST 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.  FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS IN THE NORTH
WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH DEPICTED.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...BUT A LARGE H5
TROUGH AGAIN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT KDIK WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 12 TO 17 KNOTS AT OTHER TAF SITES.
WINDS TO DECREASE AFT 01Z. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LATE TONIGHT WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWARD...BRINGING CHANCES OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS TO SOUTHERN
TAF SITES MAINLY AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 221507
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1007 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ONLY ADJUSTMENTS THIS UPDATE WAS FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND WIND
CONDITIONS. WINDS WERE A TAD LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED...BUT SHOULD
BECOME MORE WELL DEFINED IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY
LATER THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND ADD A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE LATEST
EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY`S WEATHER FOR TODAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS USHER IN WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE ONLY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY WILL BE
THE WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUD COVER. BY THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 MPH AND CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION...HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A H5 LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH SHORTWAVES LIFTING INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST WAVE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS VERSIONS. WILL SLOW THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS
FOR SATURDAY BY TRIMMING THEIR NORTHERN EXTENT...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY IS WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO
WILL KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED.

MODEL DIFFERENCES LEAD TO LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF. THIS IN PART LEADS TO HIGHER QPF
FROM THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A MODEL
BLEND FOR SUNDAY...WHICH STILL HOLDS ONTO FAIRLY HIGH POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE NORTH MAY NOT SEE MUCH
RAIN...EVEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.

THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE LARGE H5 TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE PLACES THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THEY FORECAST 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.  FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS IN THE NORTH
WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH DEPICTED.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...BUT A LARGE H5
TROUGH AGAIN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED BY AFTERNOON...AND COULD BECOME GUSTY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KDIK WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 24 KTS. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...CK



000
FXUS63 KBIS 221507
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1007 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ONLY ADJUSTMENTS THIS UPDATE WAS FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND WIND
CONDITIONS. WINDS WERE A TAD LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED...BUT SHOULD
BECOME MORE WELL DEFINED IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY
LATER THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND ADD A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE LATEST
EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY`S WEATHER FOR TODAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS USHER IN WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE ONLY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY WILL BE
THE WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUD COVER. BY THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 MPH AND CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION...HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A H5 LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH SHORTWAVES LIFTING INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST WAVE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS VERSIONS. WILL SLOW THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS
FOR SATURDAY BY TRIMMING THEIR NORTHERN EXTENT...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY IS WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO
WILL KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED.

MODEL DIFFERENCES LEAD TO LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF. THIS IN PART LEADS TO HIGHER QPF
FROM THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A MODEL
BLEND FOR SUNDAY...WHICH STILL HOLDS ONTO FAIRLY HIGH POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE NORTH MAY NOT SEE MUCH
RAIN...EVEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.

THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE LARGE H5 TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE PLACES THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THEY FORECAST 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.  FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS IN THE NORTH
WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH DEPICTED.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...BUT A LARGE H5
TROUGH AGAIN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED BY AFTERNOON...AND COULD BECOME GUSTY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KDIK WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 24 KTS. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...CK



000
FXUS63 KBIS 221507
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1007 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ONLY ADJUSTMENTS THIS UPDATE WAS FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND WIND
CONDITIONS. WINDS WERE A TAD LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED...BUT SHOULD
BECOME MORE WELL DEFINED IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY
LATER THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND ADD A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE LATEST
EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY`S WEATHER FOR TODAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS USHER IN WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE ONLY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY WILL BE
THE WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUD COVER. BY THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 MPH AND CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION...HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A H5 LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH SHORTWAVES LIFTING INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST WAVE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS VERSIONS. WILL SLOW THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS
FOR SATURDAY BY TRIMMING THEIR NORTHERN EXTENT...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY IS WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO
WILL KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED.

MODEL DIFFERENCES LEAD TO LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF. THIS IN PART LEADS TO HIGHER QPF
FROM THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A MODEL
BLEND FOR SUNDAY...WHICH STILL HOLDS ONTO FAIRLY HIGH POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE NORTH MAY NOT SEE MUCH
RAIN...EVEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.

THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE LARGE H5 TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE PLACES THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THEY FORECAST 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.  FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS IN THE NORTH
WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH DEPICTED.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...BUT A LARGE H5
TROUGH AGAIN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED BY AFTERNOON...AND COULD BECOME GUSTY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KDIK WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 24 KTS. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...CK



000
FXUS63 KBIS 221507
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1007 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ONLY ADJUSTMENTS THIS UPDATE WAS FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND WIND
CONDITIONS. WINDS WERE A TAD LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED...BUT SHOULD
BECOME MORE WELL DEFINED IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY
LATER THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND ADD A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE LATEST
EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY`S WEATHER FOR TODAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS USHER IN WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE ONLY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY WILL BE
THE WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUD COVER. BY THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 MPH AND CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION...HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A H5 LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH SHORTWAVES LIFTING INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST WAVE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS VERSIONS. WILL SLOW THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS
FOR SATURDAY BY TRIMMING THEIR NORTHERN EXTENT...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY IS WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO
WILL KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED.

MODEL DIFFERENCES LEAD TO LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF. THIS IN PART LEADS TO HIGHER QPF
FROM THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A MODEL
BLEND FOR SUNDAY...WHICH STILL HOLDS ONTO FAIRLY HIGH POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE NORTH MAY NOT SEE MUCH
RAIN...EVEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.

THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE LARGE H5 TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE PLACES THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THEY FORECAST 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.  FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS IN THE NORTH
WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH DEPICTED.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...BUT A LARGE H5
TROUGH AGAIN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED BY AFTERNOON...AND COULD BECOME GUSTY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KDIK WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 24 KTS. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...CK



000
FXUS63 KFGF 221451
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
951 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL DECREASE SKY
COVER TO 0 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTN. TEMPERATURES MAIN CONCERN TODAY...AND
FCST TRENDS ON TRACK SO NO PLANNED CHANGES.

FOR TOMORROW...GFS ONLY MODEL SHOWING PRECIP LIFTING OUT OF THE
CNTRL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN VALLEY PRIOR TO 18Z. 12Z NAM HAS ALSO
CAME IN DRY SATURDAY MORNING...AND DECIDED TO REMOVE CHANCE POPS
(WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN UNTIL SEEING 12Z GFS) THROUGH 18Z. NOT
ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THE LLJ REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF CWA AT 12Z ALTHOUGH DOES INCREASE TO 25KT IN NE SD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER AS WELL WITH MOST AREAS 70-75 FOR THE
AFTERNOON HIGH. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM ENTERING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL START TO SPREAD NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT DO RUN INTO THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE SIT ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WITH HIGH IN PLACE...PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF IN
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIP NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. 00Z GFS
SLOWER AS WELL. NET RESULT WAS TO GO DRY ALL AREAS TONIGHT THEN
RESTRICT POPS SATURDAY TO ONLY THE SOUTH HALF. EVEN THIS MAY BE
TOO AGGRESSIVE. OVERALL FEEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
SPREADING NORTH. RESULT IS WARMER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS NORTH
SATURDAY AND A BIT CLOUDIER AND COOLER SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE INTO SUNDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH ANY PRECIP WILL
GET. ONCE AGAIN HIGH IN PLACE NR THE CANADIAN BORDER SO MOISTURE
WILL RUN INTO A BRICK WALL. THUS KEPT FAR NRN AREAS DRY THRU
SUNDAY WITH LOW POPS ALONG HWY 2 AND HIGHER POPS SOUTH. THE
PLACEMENT OF POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TWEAKED IN FUTURE FCSTS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN QUESTION FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RATE OF EASTWARD PROGRESS OF PROTECTIVE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT BY
MEMORIAL DAY THIS WILL BE EVIDENT AS HIGH PLAINS TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. SO THE SIGNAL FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EVIDENT...BUT LACK OF ANY SURFACE REFLECTION THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS PRECLUDES CONFIDENT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME. KEPT EXISTING SHRA GRIDS INTACT DURING MOST PERIODS
WITH OCCASIONAL MENTION OF ISO TSRA. LONGER WAVE TROUGH INDICATED
BY ECMWF BY THURSDAY COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH GFS...BUT IF
CORRECT WOULD OFFER GREATER PCPN/THUNDER CHANCES AT END OF TIME
FRAME. HIGHS IN 60S MEMORIAL DAY OWING TO CLOUDS/PCPN SHOULD
TRANSITION TO 70S TUE-THU AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE SPORADIC.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR THRU THE PD. CLEAR SKY AND A SOUTH WIND NEAR 10 MPH.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 221451
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
951 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL DECREASE SKY
COVER TO 0 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTN. TEMPERATURES MAIN CONCERN TODAY...AND
FCST TRENDS ON TRACK SO NO PLANNED CHANGES.

FOR TOMORROW...GFS ONLY MODEL SHOWING PRECIP LIFTING OUT OF THE
CNTRL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN VALLEY PRIOR TO 18Z. 12Z NAM HAS ALSO
CAME IN DRY SATURDAY MORNING...AND DECIDED TO REMOVE CHANCE POPS
(WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN UNTIL SEEING 12Z GFS) THROUGH 18Z. NOT
ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THE LLJ REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF CWA AT 12Z ALTHOUGH DOES INCREASE TO 25KT IN NE SD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER AS WELL WITH MOST AREAS 70-75 FOR THE
AFTERNOON HIGH. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM ENTERING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL START TO SPREAD NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT DO RUN INTO THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE SIT ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WITH HIGH IN PLACE...PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF IN
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIP NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. 00Z GFS
SLOWER AS WELL. NET RESULT WAS TO GO DRY ALL AREAS TONIGHT THEN
RESTRICT POPS SATURDAY TO ONLY THE SOUTH HALF. EVEN THIS MAY BE
TOO AGGRESSIVE. OVERALL FEEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
SPREADING NORTH. RESULT IS WARMER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS NORTH
SATURDAY AND A BIT CLOUDIER AND COOLER SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE INTO SUNDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH ANY PRECIP WILL
GET. ONCE AGAIN HIGH IN PLACE NR THE CANADIAN BORDER SO MOISTURE
WILL RUN INTO A BRICK WALL. THUS KEPT FAR NRN AREAS DRY THRU
SUNDAY WITH LOW POPS ALONG HWY 2 AND HIGHER POPS SOUTH. THE
PLACEMENT OF POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TWEAKED IN FUTURE FCSTS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN QUESTION FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RATE OF EASTWARD PROGRESS OF PROTECTIVE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT BY
MEMORIAL DAY THIS WILL BE EVIDENT AS HIGH PLAINS TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. SO THE SIGNAL FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EVIDENT...BUT LACK OF ANY SURFACE REFLECTION THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS PRECLUDES CONFIDENT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME. KEPT EXISTING SHRA GRIDS INTACT DURING MOST PERIODS
WITH OCCASIONAL MENTION OF ISO TSRA. LONGER WAVE TROUGH INDICATED
BY ECMWF BY THURSDAY COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH GFS...BUT IF
CORRECT WOULD OFFER GREATER PCPN/THUNDER CHANCES AT END OF TIME
FRAME. HIGHS IN 60S MEMORIAL DAY OWING TO CLOUDS/PCPN SHOULD
TRANSITION TO 70S TUE-THU AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE SPORADIC.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR THRU THE PD. CLEAR SKY AND A SOUTH WIND NEAR 10 MPH.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 221451
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
951 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL DECREASE SKY
COVER TO 0 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTN. TEMPERATURES MAIN CONCERN TODAY...AND
FCST TRENDS ON TRACK SO NO PLANNED CHANGES.

FOR TOMORROW...GFS ONLY MODEL SHOWING PRECIP LIFTING OUT OF THE
CNTRL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN VALLEY PRIOR TO 18Z. 12Z NAM HAS ALSO
CAME IN DRY SATURDAY MORNING...AND DECIDED TO REMOVE CHANCE POPS
(WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN UNTIL SEEING 12Z GFS) THROUGH 18Z. NOT
ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THE LLJ REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF CWA AT 12Z ALTHOUGH DOES INCREASE TO 25KT IN NE SD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER AS WELL WITH MOST AREAS 70-75 FOR THE
AFTERNOON HIGH. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM ENTERING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL START TO SPREAD NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT DO RUN INTO THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE SIT ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WITH HIGH IN PLACE...PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF IN
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIP NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. 00Z GFS
SLOWER AS WELL. NET RESULT WAS TO GO DRY ALL AREAS TONIGHT THEN
RESTRICT POPS SATURDAY TO ONLY THE SOUTH HALF. EVEN THIS MAY BE
TOO AGGRESSIVE. OVERALL FEEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
SPREADING NORTH. RESULT IS WARMER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS NORTH
SATURDAY AND A BIT CLOUDIER AND COOLER SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE INTO SUNDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH ANY PRECIP WILL
GET. ONCE AGAIN HIGH IN PLACE NR THE CANADIAN BORDER SO MOISTURE
WILL RUN INTO A BRICK WALL. THUS KEPT FAR NRN AREAS DRY THRU
SUNDAY WITH LOW POPS ALONG HWY 2 AND HIGHER POPS SOUTH. THE
PLACEMENT OF POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TWEAKED IN FUTURE FCSTS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN QUESTION FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RATE OF EASTWARD PROGRESS OF PROTECTIVE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT BY
MEMORIAL DAY THIS WILL BE EVIDENT AS HIGH PLAINS TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. SO THE SIGNAL FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EVIDENT...BUT LACK OF ANY SURFACE REFLECTION THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS PRECLUDES CONFIDENT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME. KEPT EXISTING SHRA GRIDS INTACT DURING MOST PERIODS
WITH OCCASIONAL MENTION OF ISO TSRA. LONGER WAVE TROUGH INDICATED
BY ECMWF BY THURSDAY COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH GFS...BUT IF
CORRECT WOULD OFFER GREATER PCPN/THUNDER CHANCES AT END OF TIME
FRAME. HIGHS IN 60S MEMORIAL DAY OWING TO CLOUDS/PCPN SHOULD
TRANSITION TO 70S TUE-THU AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE SPORADIC.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR THRU THE PD. CLEAR SKY AND A SOUTH WIND NEAR 10 MPH.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 221451
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
951 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL DECREASE SKY
COVER TO 0 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTN. TEMPERATURES MAIN CONCERN TODAY...AND
FCST TRENDS ON TRACK SO NO PLANNED CHANGES.

FOR TOMORROW...GFS ONLY MODEL SHOWING PRECIP LIFTING OUT OF THE
CNTRL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN VALLEY PRIOR TO 18Z. 12Z NAM HAS ALSO
CAME IN DRY SATURDAY MORNING...AND DECIDED TO REMOVE CHANCE POPS
(WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN UNTIL SEEING 12Z GFS) THROUGH 18Z. NOT
ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THE LLJ REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF CWA AT 12Z ALTHOUGH DOES INCREASE TO 25KT IN NE SD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER AS WELL WITH MOST AREAS 70-75 FOR THE
AFTERNOON HIGH. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM ENTERING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL START TO SPREAD NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT DO RUN INTO THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE SIT ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WITH HIGH IN PLACE...PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF IN
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIP NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. 00Z GFS
SLOWER AS WELL. NET RESULT WAS TO GO DRY ALL AREAS TONIGHT THEN
RESTRICT POPS SATURDAY TO ONLY THE SOUTH HALF. EVEN THIS MAY BE
TOO AGGRESSIVE. OVERALL FEEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
SPREADING NORTH. RESULT IS WARMER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS NORTH
SATURDAY AND A BIT CLOUDIER AND COOLER SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE INTO SUNDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH ANY PRECIP WILL
GET. ONCE AGAIN HIGH IN PLACE NR THE CANADIAN BORDER SO MOISTURE
WILL RUN INTO A BRICK WALL. THUS KEPT FAR NRN AREAS DRY THRU
SUNDAY WITH LOW POPS ALONG HWY 2 AND HIGHER POPS SOUTH. THE
PLACEMENT OF POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TWEAKED IN FUTURE FCSTS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN QUESTION FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RATE OF EASTWARD PROGRESS OF PROTECTIVE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT BY
MEMORIAL DAY THIS WILL BE EVIDENT AS HIGH PLAINS TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. SO THE SIGNAL FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EVIDENT...BUT LACK OF ANY SURFACE REFLECTION THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS PRECLUDES CONFIDENT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME. KEPT EXISTING SHRA GRIDS INTACT DURING MOST PERIODS
WITH OCCASIONAL MENTION OF ISO TSRA. LONGER WAVE TROUGH INDICATED
BY ECMWF BY THURSDAY COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH GFS...BUT IF
CORRECT WOULD OFFER GREATER PCPN/THUNDER CHANCES AT END OF TIME
FRAME. HIGHS IN 60S MEMORIAL DAY OWING TO CLOUDS/PCPN SHOULD
TRANSITION TO 70S TUE-THU AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE SPORADIC.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR THRU THE PD. CLEAR SKY AND A SOUTH WIND NEAR 10 MPH.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 221138
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED AVAITION SECTION.  NO CHANGES TO FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER AS WELL WITH MOST AREAS 70-75 FOR THE
AFTERNOON HIGH. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM ENTERING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL START TO SPREAD NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT DO RUN INTO THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE SIT ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WITH HIGH IN PLACE...PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF IN
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIP NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. 00Z GFS
SLOWER AS WELL. NET RESULT WAS TO GO DRY ALL AREAS TONIGHT THEN
RESTRICT POPS SATURDAY TO ONLY THE SOUTH HALF. EVEN THIS MAY BE
TOO AGGRESSIVE. OVERALL FEEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
SPREADING NORTH. RESULT IS WARMER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS NORTH
SATURDAY AND A BIT CLOUDIER AND COOLER SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE INTO SUNDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH ANY PRECIP WILL
GET. ONCE AGAIN HIGH IN PLACE NR THE CANADIAN BORDER SO MOISTURE
WILL RUN INTO A BRICK WALL. THUS KEPT FAR NRN AREAS DRY THRU
SUNDAY WITH LOW POPS ALONG HWY 2 AND HIGHER POPS SOUTH. THE
PLACEMENT OF POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TWEEKED IN FUTURE FCSTS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN QUESTION FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RATE OF EASTWARD PROGRESS OF PROTECTIVE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT BY
MEMORIAL DAY THIS WILL BE EVIDENT AS HIGH PLAINS TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. SO THE SIGNAL FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EVIDENT...BUT LACK OF ANY SURFACE REFLECTION THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS PRECLUDES CONFIDENT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME. KEPT EXISTING SHRA GRIDS INTACT DURING MOST PERIODS
WITH OCCASIONAL MENTION OF ISO TSRA. LONGER WAVE TROUGH INDICATED
BY ECMWF BY THURS COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH GFS...BUT IF
CORRECT WOULD OFFER GREATER PCPN/THUNDER CHANCES AT END OF TIME
FRAME. HIGHS IN 60S MEMORIAL DAY OWING TO CLOUDS/PCPN SHOULD
TRANSITION TO 70S TUE-THU AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE SPORADIC.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR THRU THE PD. CLEAR SKY AND A SOUTH WIND NR 10 MPH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE



000
FXUS63 KFGF 221138
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED AVAITION SECTION.  NO CHANGES TO FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER AS WELL WITH MOST AREAS 70-75 FOR THE
AFTERNOON HIGH. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM ENTERING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL START TO SPREAD NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT DO RUN INTO THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE SIT ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WITH HIGH IN PLACE...PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF IN
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIP NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. 00Z GFS
SLOWER AS WELL. NET RESULT WAS TO GO DRY ALL AREAS TONIGHT THEN
RESTRICT POPS SATURDAY TO ONLY THE SOUTH HALF. EVEN THIS MAY BE
TOO AGGRESSIVE. OVERALL FEEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
SPREADING NORTH. RESULT IS WARMER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS NORTH
SATURDAY AND A BIT CLOUDIER AND COOLER SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE INTO SUNDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH ANY PRECIP WILL
GET. ONCE AGAIN HIGH IN PLACE NR THE CANADIAN BORDER SO MOISTURE
WILL RUN INTO A BRICK WALL. THUS KEPT FAR NRN AREAS DRY THRU
SUNDAY WITH LOW POPS ALONG HWY 2 AND HIGHER POPS SOUTH. THE
PLACEMENT OF POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TWEEKED IN FUTURE FCSTS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN QUESTION FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RATE OF EASTWARD PROGRESS OF PROTECTIVE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT BY
MEMORIAL DAY THIS WILL BE EVIDENT AS HIGH PLAINS TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. SO THE SIGNAL FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EVIDENT...BUT LACK OF ANY SURFACE REFLECTION THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS PRECLUDES CONFIDENT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME. KEPT EXISTING SHRA GRIDS INTACT DURING MOST PERIODS
WITH OCCASIONAL MENTION OF ISO TSRA. LONGER WAVE TROUGH INDICATED
BY ECMWF BY THURS COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH GFS...BUT IF
CORRECT WOULD OFFER GREATER PCPN/THUNDER CHANCES AT END OF TIME
FRAME. HIGHS IN 60S MEMORIAL DAY OWING TO CLOUDS/PCPN SHOULD
TRANSITION TO 70S TUE-THU AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE SPORADIC.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR THRU THE PD. CLEAR SKY AND A SOUTH WIND NR 10 MPH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 221138
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED AVAITION SECTION.  NO CHANGES TO FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER AS WELL WITH MOST AREAS 70-75 FOR THE
AFTERNOON HIGH. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM ENTERING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL START TO SPREAD NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT DO RUN INTO THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE SIT ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WITH HIGH IN PLACE...PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF IN
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIP NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. 00Z GFS
SLOWER AS WELL. NET RESULT WAS TO GO DRY ALL AREAS TONIGHT THEN
RESTRICT POPS SATURDAY TO ONLY THE SOUTH HALF. EVEN THIS MAY BE
TOO AGGRESSIVE. OVERALL FEEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
SPREADING NORTH. RESULT IS WARMER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS NORTH
SATURDAY AND A BIT CLOUDIER AND COOLER SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE INTO SUNDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH ANY PRECIP WILL
GET. ONCE AGAIN HIGH IN PLACE NR THE CANADIAN BORDER SO MOISTURE
WILL RUN INTO A BRICK WALL. THUS KEPT FAR NRN AREAS DRY THRU
SUNDAY WITH LOW POPS ALONG HWY 2 AND HIGHER POPS SOUTH. THE
PLACEMENT OF POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TWEEKED IN FUTURE FCSTS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN QUESTION FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RATE OF EASTWARD PROGRESS OF PROTECTIVE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT BY
MEMORIAL DAY THIS WILL BE EVIDENT AS HIGH PLAINS TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. SO THE SIGNAL FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EVIDENT...BUT LACK OF ANY SURFACE REFLECTION THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS PRECLUDES CONFIDENT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME. KEPT EXISTING SHRA GRIDS INTACT DURING MOST PERIODS
WITH OCCASIONAL MENTION OF ISO TSRA. LONGER WAVE TROUGH INDICATED
BY ECMWF BY THURS COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH GFS...BUT IF
CORRECT WOULD OFFER GREATER PCPN/THUNDER CHANCES AT END OF TIME
FRAME. HIGHS IN 60S MEMORIAL DAY OWING TO CLOUDS/PCPN SHOULD
TRANSITION TO 70S TUE-THU AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE SPORADIC.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR THRU THE PD. CLEAR SKY AND A SOUTH WIND NR 10 MPH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 221138
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED AVAITION SECTION.  NO CHANGES TO FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER AS WELL WITH MOST AREAS 70-75 FOR THE
AFTERNOON HIGH. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM ENTERING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL START TO SPREAD NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT DO RUN INTO THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE SIT ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WITH HIGH IN PLACE...PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF IN
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIP NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. 00Z GFS
SLOWER AS WELL. NET RESULT WAS TO GO DRY ALL AREAS TONIGHT THEN
RESTRICT POPS SATURDAY TO ONLY THE SOUTH HALF. EVEN THIS MAY BE
TOO AGGRESSIVE. OVERALL FEEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
SPREADING NORTH. RESULT IS WARMER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS NORTH
SATURDAY AND A BIT CLOUDIER AND COOLER SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE INTO SUNDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH ANY PRECIP WILL
GET. ONCE AGAIN HIGH IN PLACE NR THE CANADIAN BORDER SO MOISTURE
WILL RUN INTO A BRICK WALL. THUS KEPT FAR NRN AREAS DRY THRU
SUNDAY WITH LOW POPS ALONG HWY 2 AND HIGHER POPS SOUTH. THE
PLACEMENT OF POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TWEEKED IN FUTURE FCSTS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN QUESTION FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RATE OF EASTWARD PROGRESS OF PROTECTIVE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT BY
MEMORIAL DAY THIS WILL BE EVIDENT AS HIGH PLAINS TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. SO THE SIGNAL FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EVIDENT...BUT LACK OF ANY SURFACE REFLECTION THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS PRECLUDES CONFIDENT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME. KEPT EXISTING SHRA GRIDS INTACT DURING MOST PERIODS
WITH OCCASIONAL MENTION OF ISO TSRA. LONGER WAVE TROUGH INDICATED
BY ECMWF BY THURS COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH GFS...BUT IF
CORRECT WOULD OFFER GREATER PCPN/THUNDER CHANCES AT END OF TIME
FRAME. HIGHS IN 60S MEMORIAL DAY OWING TO CLOUDS/PCPN SHOULD
TRANSITION TO 70S TUE-THU AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE SPORADIC.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR THRU THE PD. CLEAR SKY AND A SOUTH WIND NR 10 MPH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE



000
FXUS63 KBIS 221133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND ADD A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE LATEST
EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY`S WEATHER FOR TODAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS USHER IN WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE ONLY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY WILL BE
THE WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUD COVER. BY THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 MPH AND CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION...HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A H5 LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH SHORTWAVES LIFTING INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST WAVE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS VERSIONS. WILL SLOW THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS
FOR SATURDAY BY TRIMMING THEIR NORTHERN EXTENT...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY IS WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO
WILL KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED.

MODEL DIFFERENCES LEAD TO LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF. THIS IN PART LEADS TO HIGHER QPF
FROM THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A MODEL
BLEND FOR SUNDAY...WHICH STILL HOLDS ONTO FAIRLY HIGH POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE NORTH MAY NOT SEE MUCH
RAIN...EVEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.

THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE LARGE H5 TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE PLACES THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THEY FORECAST 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.  FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS IN THE NORTH
WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH DEPICTED.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...BUT A LARGE H5
TROUGH AGAIN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED BY AFTERNOON...AND COULD BECOME GUSTY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KDIK WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 24 KTS. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...CK



000
FXUS63 KBIS 221133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND ADD A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE LATEST
EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY`S WEATHER FOR TODAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS USHER IN WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE ONLY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY WILL BE
THE WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUD COVER. BY THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 MPH AND CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION...HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A H5 LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH SHORTWAVES LIFTING INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST WAVE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS VERSIONS. WILL SLOW THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS
FOR SATURDAY BY TRIMMING THEIR NORTHERN EXTENT...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY IS WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO
WILL KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED.

MODEL DIFFERENCES LEAD TO LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF. THIS IN PART LEADS TO HIGHER QPF
FROM THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A MODEL
BLEND FOR SUNDAY...WHICH STILL HOLDS ONTO FAIRLY HIGH POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE NORTH MAY NOT SEE MUCH
RAIN...EVEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.

THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE LARGE H5 TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE PLACES THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THEY FORECAST 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.  FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS IN THE NORTH
WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH DEPICTED.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...BUT A LARGE H5
TROUGH AGAIN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED BY AFTERNOON...AND COULD BECOME GUSTY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KDIK WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 24 KTS. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...CK



000
FXUS63 KBIS 221133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND ADD A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE LATEST
EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY`S WEATHER FOR TODAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS USHER IN WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE ONLY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY WILL BE
THE WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUD COVER. BY THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 MPH AND CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION...HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A H5 LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH SHORTWAVES LIFTING INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST WAVE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS VERSIONS. WILL SLOW THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS
FOR SATURDAY BY TRIMMING THEIR NORTHERN EXTENT...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY IS WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO
WILL KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED.

MODEL DIFFERENCES LEAD TO LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF. THIS IN PART LEADS TO HIGHER QPF
FROM THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A MODEL
BLEND FOR SUNDAY...WHICH STILL HOLDS ONTO FAIRLY HIGH POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE NORTH MAY NOT SEE MUCH
RAIN...EVEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.

THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE LARGE H5 TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE PLACES THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THEY FORECAST 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.  FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS IN THE NORTH
WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH DEPICTED.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...BUT A LARGE H5
TROUGH AGAIN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED BY AFTERNOON...AND COULD BECOME GUSTY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KDIK WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 24 KTS. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...CK



000
FXUS63 KBIS 221133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND ADD A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE LATEST
EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY`S WEATHER FOR TODAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS USHER IN WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE ONLY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY WILL BE
THE WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUD COVER. BY THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 MPH AND CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION...HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A H5 LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH SHORTWAVES LIFTING INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST WAVE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS VERSIONS. WILL SLOW THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS
FOR SATURDAY BY TRIMMING THEIR NORTHERN EXTENT...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY IS WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO
WILL KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED.

MODEL DIFFERENCES LEAD TO LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF. THIS IN PART LEADS TO HIGHER QPF
FROM THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A MODEL
BLEND FOR SUNDAY...WHICH STILL HOLDS ONTO FAIRLY HIGH POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE NORTH MAY NOT SEE MUCH
RAIN...EVEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.

THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE LARGE H5 TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE PLACES THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THEY FORECAST 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.  FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS IN THE NORTH
WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH DEPICTED.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...BUT A LARGE H5
TROUGH AGAIN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED BY AFTERNOON...AND COULD BECOME GUSTY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KDIK WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 24 KTS. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...CK



000
FXUS63 KBIS 221133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND ADD A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE LATEST
EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY`S WEATHER FOR TODAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS USHER IN WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE ONLY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY WILL BE
THE WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUD COVER. BY THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 MPH AND CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION...HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A H5 LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH SHORTWAVES LIFTING INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST WAVE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS VERSIONS. WILL SLOW THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS
FOR SATURDAY BY TRIMMING THEIR NORTHERN EXTENT...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY IS WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO
WILL KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED.

MODEL DIFFERENCES LEAD TO LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF. THIS IN PART LEADS TO HIGHER QPF
FROM THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A MODEL
BLEND FOR SUNDAY...WHICH STILL HOLDS ONTO FAIRLY HIGH POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE NORTH MAY NOT SEE MUCH
RAIN...EVEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.

THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE LARGE H5 TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE PLACES THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THEY FORECAST 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.  FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS IN THE NORTH
WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH DEPICTED.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...BUT A LARGE H5
TROUGH AGAIN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED BY AFTERNOON...AND COULD BECOME GUSTY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KDIK WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 24 KTS. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...CK



000
FXUS63 KBIS 221133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND ADD A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE LATEST
EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY`S WEATHER FOR TODAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS USHER IN WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE ONLY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY WILL BE
THE WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUD COVER. BY THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 MPH AND CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION...HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A H5 LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH SHORTWAVES LIFTING INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST WAVE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS VERSIONS. WILL SLOW THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS
FOR SATURDAY BY TRIMMING THEIR NORTHERN EXTENT...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY IS WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO
WILL KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED.

MODEL DIFFERENCES LEAD TO LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF. THIS IN PART LEADS TO HIGHER QPF
FROM THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A MODEL
BLEND FOR SUNDAY...WHICH STILL HOLDS ONTO FAIRLY HIGH POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE NORTH MAY NOT SEE MUCH
RAIN...EVEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.

THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE LARGE H5 TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE PLACES THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THEY FORECAST 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.  FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS IN THE NORTH
WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH DEPICTED.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...BUT A LARGE H5
TROUGH AGAIN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED BY AFTERNOON...AND COULD BECOME GUSTY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KDIK WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 24 KTS. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...CK




000
FXUS63 KBIS 220859
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
359 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY`S WEATHER FOR TODAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS USHER IN WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE ONLY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY WILL BE
THE WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUD COVER. BY THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 MPH AND CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION...HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A H5 LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH SHORTWAVES LIFTING INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST WAVE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS VERSIONS. WILL SLOW THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS
FOR SATURDAY BY TRIMMING THEIR NORTHERN EXTENT...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY IS WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO
WILL KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED.

MODEL DIFFERENCES LEAD TO LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF. THIS IN PART LEADS TO HIGHER QPF
FROM THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A MODEL
BLEND FOR SUNDAY...WHICH STILL HOLDS ONTO FAIRLY HIGH POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE NORTH MAY NOT SEE MUCH
RAIN...EVEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.

THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE LARGE H5 TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE PLACES THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THEY FORECAST 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.  FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS IN THE NORTH
WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH DEPICTED.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...BUT A LARGE H5
TROUGH AGAIN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KBIS 220859
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
359 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY`S WEATHER FOR TODAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS USHER IN WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE ONLY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY WILL BE
THE WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUD COVER. BY THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 MPH AND CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION...HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A H5 LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH SHORTWAVES LIFTING INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST WAVE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS VERSIONS. WILL SLOW THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS
FOR SATURDAY BY TRIMMING THEIR NORTHERN EXTENT...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY IS WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO
WILL KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED.

MODEL DIFFERENCES LEAD TO LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF. THIS IN PART LEADS TO HIGHER QPF
FROM THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A MODEL
BLEND FOR SUNDAY...WHICH STILL HOLDS ONTO FAIRLY HIGH POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE NORTH MAY NOT SEE MUCH
RAIN...EVEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.

THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE LARGE H5 TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE PLACES THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THEY FORECAST 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.  FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS IN THE NORTH
WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH DEPICTED.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...BUT A LARGE H5
TROUGH AGAIN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KFGF 220822
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
322 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER AS WELL WITH MOST AREAS 70-75 FOR THE
AFTERNOON HIGH. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM ENTERING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL START TO SPREAD NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT DO RUN INTO THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE SIT ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WITH HIGH IN PLACE...PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF IN
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIP NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. 00Z GFS
SLOWER AS WELL. NET RESULT WAS TO GO DRY ALL AREAS TONIGHT THEN
RESTRICT POPS SATURDAY TO ONLY THE SOUTH HALF. EVEN THIS MAY BE
TOO AGGRESSIVE. OVERALL FEEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
SPREADING NORTH. RESULT IS WARMER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS NORTH
SATURDAY AND A BIT CLOUDIER AND COOLER SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE INTO SUNDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH ANY PRECIP WILL
GET. ONCE AGAIN HIGH IN PLACE NR THE CANADIAN BORDER SO MOISTURE
WILL RUN INTO A BRICK WALL. THUS KEPT FAR NRN AREAS DRY THRU
SUNDAY WITH LOW POPS ALONG HWY 2 AND HIGHER POPS SOUTH. THE
PLACEMENT OF POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TWEEKED IN FUTURE FCSTS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN QUESTION FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RATE OF EASTWARD PROGRESS OF PROTECTIVE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT BY
MEMORIAL DAY THIS WILL BE EVIDENT AS HIGH PLAINS TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. SO THE SIGNAL FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EVIDENT...BUT LACK OF ANY SURFACE REFLECTION THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS PRECLUDES CONFIDENT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME. KEPT EXISTING SHRA GRIDS INTACT DURING MOST PERIODS
WITH OCCASIONAL MENTION OF ISO TSRA. LONGER WAVE TROUGH INDICATED
BY ECMWF BY THURS COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH GFS...BUT IF
CORRECT WOULD OFFER GREATER PCPN/THUNDER CHANCES AT END OF TIME
FRAME. HIGHS IN 60S MEMORIAL DAY OWING TO CLOUDS/PCPN SHOULD
TRANSITION TO 70S TUE-THU AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE SPORADIC.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

CAVU. NO CIGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 220822
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
322 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER AS WELL WITH MOST AREAS 70-75 FOR THE
AFTERNOON HIGH. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM ENTERING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL START TO SPREAD NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT DO RUN INTO THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE SIT ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WITH HIGH IN PLACE...PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF IN
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIP NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. 00Z GFS
SLOWER AS WELL. NET RESULT WAS TO GO DRY ALL AREAS TONIGHT THEN
RESTRICT POPS SATURDAY TO ONLY THE SOUTH HALF. EVEN THIS MAY BE
TOO AGGRESSIVE. OVERALL FEEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
SPREADING NORTH. RESULT IS WARMER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS NORTH
SATURDAY AND A BIT CLOUDIER AND COOLER SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE INTO SUNDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH ANY PRECIP WILL
GET. ONCE AGAIN HIGH IN PLACE NR THE CANADIAN BORDER SO MOISTURE
WILL RUN INTO A BRICK WALL. THUS KEPT FAR NRN AREAS DRY THRU
SUNDAY WITH LOW POPS ALONG HWY 2 AND HIGHER POPS SOUTH. THE
PLACEMENT OF POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TWEEKED IN FUTURE FCSTS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN QUESTION FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RATE OF EASTWARD PROGRESS OF PROTECTIVE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT BY
MEMORIAL DAY THIS WILL BE EVIDENT AS HIGH PLAINS TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. SO THE SIGNAL FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EVIDENT...BUT LACK OF ANY SURFACE REFLECTION THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS PRECLUDES CONFIDENT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME. KEPT EXISTING SHRA GRIDS INTACT DURING MOST PERIODS
WITH OCCASIONAL MENTION OF ISO TSRA. LONGER WAVE TROUGH INDICATED
BY ECMWF BY THURS COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH GFS...BUT IF
CORRECT WOULD OFFER GREATER PCPN/THUNDER CHANCES AT END OF TIME
FRAME. HIGHS IN 60S MEMORIAL DAY OWING TO CLOUDS/PCPN SHOULD
TRANSITION TO 70S TUE-THU AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE SPORADIC.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

CAVU. NO CIGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 220822
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
322 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER AS WELL WITH MOST AREAS 70-75 FOR THE
AFTERNOON HIGH. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM ENTERING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL START TO SPREAD NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT DO RUN INTO THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE SIT ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WITH HIGH IN PLACE...PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF IN
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIP NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. 00Z GFS
SLOWER AS WELL. NET RESULT WAS TO GO DRY ALL AREAS TONIGHT THEN
RESTRICT POPS SATURDAY TO ONLY THE SOUTH HALF. EVEN THIS MAY BE
TOO AGGRESSIVE. OVERALL FEEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
SPREADING NORTH. RESULT IS WARMER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS NORTH
SATURDAY AND A BIT CLOUDIER AND COOLER SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE INTO SUNDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH ANY PRECIP WILL
GET. ONCE AGAIN HIGH IN PLACE NR THE CANADIAN BORDER SO MOISTURE
WILL RUN INTO A BRICK WALL. THUS KEPT FAR NRN AREAS DRY THRU
SUNDAY WITH LOW POPS ALONG HWY 2 AND HIGHER POPS SOUTH. THE
PLACEMENT OF POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TWEEKED IN FUTURE FCSTS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN QUESTION FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RATE OF EASTWARD PROGRESS OF PROTECTIVE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT BY
MEMORIAL DAY THIS WILL BE EVIDENT AS HIGH PLAINS TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. SO THE SIGNAL FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EVIDENT...BUT LACK OF ANY SURFACE REFLECTION THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS PRECLUDES CONFIDENT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME. KEPT EXISTING SHRA GRIDS INTACT DURING MOST PERIODS
WITH OCCASIONAL MENTION OF ISO TSRA. LONGER WAVE TROUGH INDICATED
BY ECMWF BY THURS COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH GFS...BUT IF
CORRECT WOULD OFFER GREATER PCPN/THUNDER CHANCES AT END OF TIME
FRAME. HIGHS IN 60S MEMORIAL DAY OWING TO CLOUDS/PCPN SHOULD
TRANSITION TO 70S TUE-THU AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE SPORADIC.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

CAVU. NO CIGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER




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