Latest:
 AFDBIS |  AFDFGF |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KFGF 210422
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1122 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER SOUTH OF KJMS CONTINUE TO
SAG INTO SD. HOWEVER THE BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER CENTRAL
ND CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN HIGHER PCPN CHANCES ACROSS OUR WESTERN FA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT THEN SLOWLY EXPAND THEM TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
LATE NIGHT...LIKELY HOLDING OFF IN THE EAST/NE UNTIL CLOSER TO
MORNING OR EVEN LATER. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WX AND THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT HAS PROBABLY ENDED TOO. HOWEVER THERE SHOULD STILL BE
SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
MT. TROUGH FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHERN MAN AND NORTHERN ND
TONIGHT AND THU. DEEP THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED EAST OF UPPER
TROUGH FOR TONIGHT AND THU. LOW LEVEL JET TO NOSE INTO EASTERN SD
THIS EVENING, THEN SHIFT TO STATES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH FRI. THEREAFTER LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH ENTRANCE REGION IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTER LATE TONIGHT AND
THU. BULK SHEAR UNDER 35 KNOTS. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TO REMAIN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ZONES
THU NIGHT...WILL ADD LOW POPS NORTH.

WILL TRIM BACK POPS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES FRI.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SECOND SHORT WAVE OVER WA/BC BORDER.
THE SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MAN AND NORTHERN
ND FRI. WILL HAVE POPS MAINLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO AFFECT THE AREA SAT AND SO A
HIGHER THREAT FOR PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UNSETTLED PERIOD AS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LIFTS NE
INTO MB REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN PCPN PLACEMENT SO TARGETING SPECIFIC
AREAS FOR RAIN DIFFICULT. WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK MONDAY BEFORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FA TOWARDS MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL BLO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

AS THE SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE KDVL REGION THEY HAVE NOT
RESULTED IN ANY NON VFR CEILINGS AS OF YET. NOT LOOKING LIKE THE
SHOWERS/TSTMS EVEN ALONG AND SOUTH OF KJMS ARE RESULTING IN LOWER
CEILINGS YET. THEREFORE WILL KEEP TAFS IN THE VFR RANGE AND LET
LATER SHIFTS LOWER THEM IF ANY LOWER CEILINGS SHOW UP. TRIED TO
TIME THE PCPN FROM WEST TO EAST AS BEST AS POSSIBLE...BUT THE
EASTWARD PROGRESS HAS BEEN VERY SLOW. MODELS ALSO DISAGREE ON HOW
FAST TO MOVE ANY OF THIS OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. TRIED TO USE A MODEL BLEND BUT CONFIDENCE PRETTY LOW
OVERALL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KFGF 210422
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1122 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER SOUTH OF KJMS CONTINUE TO
SAG INTO SD. HOWEVER THE BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER CENTRAL
ND CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN HIGHER PCPN CHANCES ACROSS OUR WESTERN FA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT THEN SLOWLY EXPAND THEM TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
LATE NIGHT...LIKELY HOLDING OFF IN THE EAST/NE UNTIL CLOSER TO
MORNING OR EVEN LATER. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WX AND THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT HAS PROBABLY ENDED TOO. HOWEVER THERE SHOULD STILL BE
SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
MT. TROUGH FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHERN MAN AND NORTHERN ND
TONIGHT AND THU. DEEP THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED EAST OF UPPER
TROUGH FOR TONIGHT AND THU. LOW LEVEL JET TO NOSE INTO EASTERN SD
THIS EVENING, THEN SHIFT TO STATES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH FRI. THEREAFTER LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH ENTRANCE REGION IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTER LATE TONIGHT AND
THU. BULK SHEAR UNDER 35 KNOTS. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TO REMAIN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ZONES
THU NIGHT...WILL ADD LOW POPS NORTH.

WILL TRIM BACK POPS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES FRI.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SECOND SHORT WAVE OVER WA/BC BORDER.
THE SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MAN AND NORTHERN
ND FRI. WILL HAVE POPS MAINLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO AFFECT THE AREA SAT AND SO A
HIGHER THREAT FOR PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UNSETTLED PERIOD AS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LIFTS NE
INTO MB REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN PCPN PLACEMENT SO TARGETING SPECIFIC
AREAS FOR RAIN DIFFICULT. WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK MONDAY BEFORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FA TOWARDS MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL BLO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

AS THE SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE KDVL REGION THEY HAVE NOT
RESULTED IN ANY NON VFR CEILINGS AS OF YET. NOT LOOKING LIKE THE
SHOWERS/TSTMS EVEN ALONG AND SOUTH OF KJMS ARE RESULTING IN LOWER
CEILINGS YET. THEREFORE WILL KEEP TAFS IN THE VFR RANGE AND LET
LATER SHIFTS LOWER THEM IF ANY LOWER CEILINGS SHOW UP. TRIED TO
TIME THE PCPN FROM WEST TO EAST AS BEST AS POSSIBLE...BUT THE
EASTWARD PROGRESS HAS BEEN VERY SLOW. MODELS ALSO DISAGREE ON HOW
FAST TO MOVE ANY OF THIS OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. TRIED TO USE A MODEL BLEND BUT CONFIDENCE PRETTY LOW
OVERALL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KBIS 210403
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1103 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...BUT STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN
MCINTOSH AND DICKEY COUNTIES.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE FLOODING POTENTIAL AS ACTIVE
WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE REMOVES BURLEIGH/SIOUX COUNTIES FROM WATCH. FOCUS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...ISSUED AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY
EMMONS...MCINTOSH AND LOGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 3 AM CDT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TRIMMED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FROM MORTON AND GRANT
COUNTIES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM EMMONS TO
LOGAN AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES...POSSIBLY UP INTO KIDDER COUNTY AS
WELL. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THERE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES IN THREE
HOURS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATE TO REMOVE ADAMS AND HETTINGER COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MAINLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND THREAT
CONTINUES AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS KJMS THIS EVENING.
AT 930 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE OW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR
EXPECTED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 210403
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1103 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...BUT STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN
MCINTOSH AND DICKEY COUNTIES.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE FLOODING POTENTIAL AS ACTIVE
WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE REMOVES BURLEIGH/SIOUX COUNTIES FROM WATCH. FOCUS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...ISSUED AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY
EMMONS...MCINTOSH AND LOGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 3 AM CDT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TRIMMED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FROM MORTON AND GRANT
COUNTIES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM EMMONS TO
LOGAN AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES...POSSIBLY UP INTO KIDDER COUNTY AS
WELL. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THERE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES IN THREE
HOURS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATE TO REMOVE ADAMS AND HETTINGER COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MAINLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND THREAT
CONTINUES AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS KJMS THIS EVENING.
AT 930 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE OW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR
EXPECTED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 210403
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1103 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...BUT STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN
MCINTOSH AND DICKEY COUNTIES.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE FLOODING POTENTIAL AS ACTIVE
WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE REMOVES BURLEIGH/SIOUX COUNTIES FROM WATCH. FOCUS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...ISSUED AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY
EMMONS...MCINTOSH AND LOGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 3 AM CDT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TRIMMED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FROM MORTON AND GRANT
COUNTIES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM EMMONS TO
LOGAN AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES...POSSIBLY UP INTO KIDDER COUNTY AS
WELL. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THERE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES IN THREE
HOURS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATE TO REMOVE ADAMS AND HETTINGER COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MAINLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND THREAT
CONTINUES AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS KJMS THIS EVENING.
AT 930 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE OW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR
EXPECTED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 210403
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1103 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...BUT STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN
MCINTOSH AND DICKEY COUNTIES.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE FLOODING POTENTIAL AS ACTIVE
WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE REMOVES BURLEIGH/SIOUX COUNTIES FROM WATCH. FOCUS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...ISSUED AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY
EMMONS...MCINTOSH AND LOGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 3 AM CDT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TRIMMED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FROM MORTON AND GRANT
COUNTIES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM EMMONS TO
LOGAN AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES...POSSIBLY UP INTO KIDDER COUNTY AS
WELL. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THERE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES IN THREE
HOURS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATE TO REMOVE ADAMS AND HETTINGER COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MAINLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND THREAT
CONTINUES AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS KJMS THIS EVENING.
AT 930 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE OW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR
EXPECTED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 210256
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE REMOVES BURLEIGH/SIOUX COUNTIES FROM WATCH. FOCUS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...ISSUED AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY
EMMONS...MCINTOSH AND LOGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 3 AM CDT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TRIMMED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FROM MORTON AND GRANT
COUNTIES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM EMMONS TO
LOGAN AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES...POSSIBLY UP INTO KIDDER COUNTY AS
WELL. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THERE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES IN THREE
HOURS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATE TO REMOVE ADAMS AND HETTINGER COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MAINLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND THREAT
CONTINUES AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS KJMS THIS EVENING.
AT 930 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE OW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR
EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 210256
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE REMOVES BURLEIGH/SIOUX COUNTIES FROM WATCH. FOCUS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...ISSUED AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY
EMMONS...MCINTOSH AND LOGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 3 AM CDT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TRIMMED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FROM MORTON AND GRANT
COUNTIES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM EMMONS TO
LOGAN AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES...POSSIBLY UP INTO KIDDER COUNTY AS
WELL. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THERE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES IN THREE
HOURS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATE TO REMOVE ADAMS AND HETTINGER COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MAINLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND THREAT
CONTINUES AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS KJMS THIS EVENING.
AT 930 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE OW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR
EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD






000
FXUS63 KFGF 210235
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SO FAR ALL THE PCPN HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
OVER CENTRAL ND. THERE ARE NO ACTIVE WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY IN ND AT THIS POINT. THE STRONGER CELLS HAVE BEEN DIVING
DOWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD. HOWEVER A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD OUR WESTERN FA. EXPECT THESE TO
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ALBEIT VERY SLOWLY. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MORE ACTIVITY WITH IT. THE SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS THE NOSE OF
THE 35KT LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSED DOWN AROUND KFSD WITH WEAKER SPEEDS
INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE ARE A FEW ELEVATED
ECHOES IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL MN BUT NOTHING YET
AT THE SFC. HI RESOLUTION MODELS SEEM TO SHOW THE MAIN ACTIVITY
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET STAYING WELL SOUTH OF THE FA OR ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN TONIGHT. THEY DO DEVELOP SOME SCT ACTIVITY UP INTO
OUR SOUTHERN FA BUT THAT MAY BE ABOUT IT. THE WESTERN ACTIVITY
MAY DECREASE SOME IN COVERAGE TOO AS IT MOVES EAST...AND PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST OR EASTERN FA MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING AT ALL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
MT. TROUGH FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHERN MAN AND NORTHERN ND
TONIGHT AND THU. DEEP THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED EAST OF UPPER
TROUGH FOR TONIGHT AND THU. LOW LEVEL JET TO NOSE INTO EASTERN SD
THIS EVENING, THEN SHIFT TO STATES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH FRI. THEREAFTER LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH ENTRANCE REGION IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTER LATE TONIGHT AND
THU. BULK SHEAR UNDER 35 KNOTS. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TO REMAIN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ZONES
THU NIGHT...WILL ADD LOW POPS NORTH.

WILL TRIM BACK POPS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES FRI.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SECOND SHORT WAVE OVER WA/BC BORDER.
THE SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MAN AND NORTHERN
ND FRI. WILL HAVE POPS MAINLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO AFFECT THE AREA SAT AND SO A
HIGHER THREAT FOR PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UNSETTLED PERIOD AS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LIFTS NE
INTO MB REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN PCPN PLACEMENT SO TARGETING SPECIFIC
AREAS FOR RAIN DIFFICULT. WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK MONDAY BEFORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FA TOWARDS MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL BLO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

EVOLUTION OF THE PCPN INTO OUR FA TONIGHT SEEMS A TAD SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED. MODELS NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT ON WHEN THE ONSET
WILL BE SO KIND OF GOING WITH A BLEND FOR THE TAFS. WILL START OUT
WITH JUST CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM CONVECTION OUT WEST BUT SHOULD SEE
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY LATER IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT
KDVL. KDVL SHOULD ALSO SEE THE PCPN ARRIVE FIRST...THEN PROBABLY
AT KFAR FOLLOWED BY KGFK/KTVF. KBJI MAY NOT SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING
UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. ONCE THE PCPN ROLLS IN IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL STAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF DURATION. KEPT CEILINGS VFR
FOR NOW BUT THEY LIKELY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH
ANY HEAVIER RAIN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 210235
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SO FAR ALL THE PCPN HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
OVER CENTRAL ND. THERE ARE NO ACTIVE WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY IN ND AT THIS POINT. THE STRONGER CELLS HAVE BEEN DIVING
DOWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD. HOWEVER A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD OUR WESTERN FA. EXPECT THESE TO
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ALBEIT VERY SLOWLY. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MORE ACTIVITY WITH IT. THE SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS THE NOSE OF
THE 35KT LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSED DOWN AROUND KFSD WITH WEAKER SPEEDS
INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE ARE A FEW ELEVATED
ECHOES IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL MN BUT NOTHING YET
AT THE SFC. HI RESOLUTION MODELS SEEM TO SHOW THE MAIN ACTIVITY
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET STAYING WELL SOUTH OF THE FA OR ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN TONIGHT. THEY DO DEVELOP SOME SCT ACTIVITY UP INTO
OUR SOUTHERN FA BUT THAT MAY BE ABOUT IT. THE WESTERN ACTIVITY
MAY DECREASE SOME IN COVERAGE TOO AS IT MOVES EAST...AND PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST OR EASTERN FA MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING AT ALL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
MT. TROUGH FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHERN MAN AND NORTHERN ND
TONIGHT AND THU. DEEP THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED EAST OF UPPER
TROUGH FOR TONIGHT AND THU. LOW LEVEL JET TO NOSE INTO EASTERN SD
THIS EVENING, THEN SHIFT TO STATES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH FRI. THEREAFTER LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH ENTRANCE REGION IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTER LATE TONIGHT AND
THU. BULK SHEAR UNDER 35 KNOTS. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TO REMAIN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ZONES
THU NIGHT...WILL ADD LOW POPS NORTH.

WILL TRIM BACK POPS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES FRI.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SECOND SHORT WAVE OVER WA/BC BORDER.
THE SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MAN AND NORTHERN
ND FRI. WILL HAVE POPS MAINLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO AFFECT THE AREA SAT AND SO A
HIGHER THREAT FOR PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UNSETTLED PERIOD AS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LIFTS NE
INTO MB REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN PCPN PLACEMENT SO TARGETING SPECIFIC
AREAS FOR RAIN DIFFICULT. WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK MONDAY BEFORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FA TOWARDS MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL BLO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

EVOLUTION OF THE PCPN INTO OUR FA TONIGHT SEEMS A TAD SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED. MODELS NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT ON WHEN THE ONSET
WILL BE SO KIND OF GOING WITH A BLEND FOR THE TAFS. WILL START OUT
WITH JUST CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM CONVECTION OUT WEST BUT SHOULD SEE
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY LATER IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT
KDVL. KDVL SHOULD ALSO SEE THE PCPN ARRIVE FIRST...THEN PROBABLY
AT KFAR FOLLOWED BY KGFK/KTVF. KBJI MAY NOT SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING
UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. ONCE THE PCPN ROLLS IN IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL STAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF DURATION. KEPT CEILINGS VFR
FOR NOW BUT THEY LIKELY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH
ANY HEAVIER RAIN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 210235
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SO FAR ALL THE PCPN HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
OVER CENTRAL ND. THERE ARE NO ACTIVE WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY IN ND AT THIS POINT. THE STRONGER CELLS HAVE BEEN DIVING
DOWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD. HOWEVER A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD OUR WESTERN FA. EXPECT THESE TO
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ALBEIT VERY SLOWLY. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MORE ACTIVITY WITH IT. THE SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS THE NOSE OF
THE 35KT LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSED DOWN AROUND KFSD WITH WEAKER SPEEDS
INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE ARE A FEW ELEVATED
ECHOES IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL MN BUT NOTHING YET
AT THE SFC. HI RESOLUTION MODELS SEEM TO SHOW THE MAIN ACTIVITY
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET STAYING WELL SOUTH OF THE FA OR ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN TONIGHT. THEY DO DEVELOP SOME SCT ACTIVITY UP INTO
OUR SOUTHERN FA BUT THAT MAY BE ABOUT IT. THE WESTERN ACTIVITY
MAY DECREASE SOME IN COVERAGE TOO AS IT MOVES EAST...AND PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST OR EASTERN FA MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING AT ALL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
MT. TROUGH FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHERN MAN AND NORTHERN ND
TONIGHT AND THU. DEEP THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED EAST OF UPPER
TROUGH FOR TONIGHT AND THU. LOW LEVEL JET TO NOSE INTO EASTERN SD
THIS EVENING, THEN SHIFT TO STATES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH FRI. THEREAFTER LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH ENTRANCE REGION IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTER LATE TONIGHT AND
THU. BULK SHEAR UNDER 35 KNOTS. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TO REMAIN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ZONES
THU NIGHT...WILL ADD LOW POPS NORTH.

WILL TRIM BACK POPS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES FRI.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SECOND SHORT WAVE OVER WA/BC BORDER.
THE SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MAN AND NORTHERN
ND FRI. WILL HAVE POPS MAINLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO AFFECT THE AREA SAT AND SO A
HIGHER THREAT FOR PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UNSETTLED PERIOD AS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LIFTS NE
INTO MB REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN PCPN PLACEMENT SO TARGETING SPECIFIC
AREAS FOR RAIN DIFFICULT. WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK MONDAY BEFORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FA TOWARDS MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL BLO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

EVOLUTION OF THE PCPN INTO OUR FA TONIGHT SEEMS A TAD SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED. MODELS NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT ON WHEN THE ONSET
WILL BE SO KIND OF GOING WITH A BLEND FOR THE TAFS. WILL START OUT
WITH JUST CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM CONVECTION OUT WEST BUT SHOULD SEE
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY LATER IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT
KDVL. KDVL SHOULD ALSO SEE THE PCPN ARRIVE FIRST...THEN PROBABLY
AT KFAR FOLLOWED BY KGFK/KTVF. KBJI MAY NOT SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING
UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. ONCE THE PCPN ROLLS IN IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL STAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF DURATION. KEPT CEILINGS VFR
FOR NOW BUT THEY LIKELY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH
ANY HEAVIER RAIN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 210235
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SO FAR ALL THE PCPN HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
OVER CENTRAL ND. THERE ARE NO ACTIVE WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY IN ND AT THIS POINT. THE STRONGER CELLS HAVE BEEN DIVING
DOWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD. HOWEVER A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD OUR WESTERN FA. EXPECT THESE TO
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ALBEIT VERY SLOWLY. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MORE ACTIVITY WITH IT. THE SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS THE NOSE OF
THE 35KT LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSED DOWN AROUND KFSD WITH WEAKER SPEEDS
INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE ARE A FEW ELEVATED
ECHOES IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL MN BUT NOTHING YET
AT THE SFC. HI RESOLUTION MODELS SEEM TO SHOW THE MAIN ACTIVITY
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET STAYING WELL SOUTH OF THE FA OR ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN TONIGHT. THEY DO DEVELOP SOME SCT ACTIVITY UP INTO
OUR SOUTHERN FA BUT THAT MAY BE ABOUT IT. THE WESTERN ACTIVITY
MAY DECREASE SOME IN COVERAGE TOO AS IT MOVES EAST...AND PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST OR EASTERN FA MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING AT ALL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
MT. TROUGH FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHERN MAN AND NORTHERN ND
TONIGHT AND THU. DEEP THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED EAST OF UPPER
TROUGH FOR TONIGHT AND THU. LOW LEVEL JET TO NOSE INTO EASTERN SD
THIS EVENING, THEN SHIFT TO STATES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH FRI. THEREAFTER LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH ENTRANCE REGION IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTER LATE TONIGHT AND
THU. BULK SHEAR UNDER 35 KNOTS. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TO REMAIN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ZONES
THU NIGHT...WILL ADD LOW POPS NORTH.

WILL TRIM BACK POPS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES FRI.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SECOND SHORT WAVE OVER WA/BC BORDER.
THE SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MAN AND NORTHERN
ND FRI. WILL HAVE POPS MAINLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO AFFECT THE AREA SAT AND SO A
HIGHER THREAT FOR PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UNSETTLED PERIOD AS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LIFTS NE
INTO MB REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN PCPN PLACEMENT SO TARGETING SPECIFIC
AREAS FOR RAIN DIFFICULT. WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK MONDAY BEFORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FA TOWARDS MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL BLO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

EVOLUTION OF THE PCPN INTO OUR FA TONIGHT SEEMS A TAD SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED. MODELS NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT ON WHEN THE ONSET
WILL BE SO KIND OF GOING WITH A BLEND FOR THE TAFS. WILL START OUT
WITH JUST CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM CONVECTION OUT WEST BUT SHOULD SEE
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY LATER IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT
KDVL. KDVL SHOULD ALSO SEE THE PCPN ARRIVE FIRST...THEN PROBABLY
AT KFAR FOLLOWED BY KGFK/KTVF. KBJI MAY NOT SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING
UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. ONCE THE PCPN ROLLS IN IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL STAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF DURATION. KEPT CEILINGS VFR
FOR NOW BUT THEY LIKELY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH
ANY HEAVIER RAIN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KBIS 210222
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
922 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TRIMMED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FROM MORTON AND GRANT
COUNTIES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM EMMONS TO
LOGAN AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES...POSSIBLY UP INTO KIDDER COUNTY AS
WELL. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THERE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES IN THREE
HOURS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATE TO REMOVE ADAMS AND HETTINGER COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MAINLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND THREAT
CONTINUES AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS KBIS-KJMS THIS
EVENING. AT 900 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE OW PRESSURE
ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.  POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 210019
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
719 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATE TO REMOVE ADAMS AND HETTINGER COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MAINLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND THREAT
CONTINUES AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS KBIS-KJMS THIS
EVENING. AT 630 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 210019
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
719 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATE TO REMOVE ADAMS AND HETTINGER COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MAINLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND THREAT
CONTINUES AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS KBIS-KJMS THIS
EVENING. AT 630 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 202359
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
659 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MAINLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND THREAT
CONTINUES AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS KBIS-KJMS THIS
EVENING. AT 630 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 202359
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
659 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MAINLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND THREAT
CONTINUES AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS KBIS-KJMS THIS
EVENING. AT 630 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 202359
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
659 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MAINLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND THREAT
CONTINUES AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS KBIS-KJMS THIS
EVENING. AT 630 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 202359
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
659 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MAINLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND THREAT
CONTINUES AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS KBIS-KJMS THIS
EVENING. AT 630 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD







000
FXUS63 KFGF 202327
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
627 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

NO CHANGES AT THIS POINT. UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
MT. TROUGH FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHERN MAN AND NORTHERN ND
TONIGHT AND THU. DEEP THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED EAST OF UPPER
TROUGH FOR TONIGHT AND THU. LOW LEVEL JET TO NOSE INTO EASTERN SD
THIS EVENING, THEN SHIFT TO STATES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH FRI. THEREAFTER LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH ENTRANCE REGION IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTER LATE TONIGHT AND
THU. BULK SHEAR UNDER 35 KNOTS. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TO REMAIN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ZONES
THU NIGHT...WILL ADD LOW POPS NORTH.

WILL TRIM BACK POPS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES FRI.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SECOND SHORT WAVE OVER WA/BC BORDER.
THE SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MAN AND NORTHERN
ND FRI. WILL HAVE POPS MAINLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO AFFECT THE AREA SAT AND SO A
HIGHER THREAT FOR PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UNSETTLED PERIOD AS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LIFTS NE
INTO MB REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN PCPN PLACEMENT SO TARGETING SPECIFIC
AREAS FOR RAIN DIFFICULT. WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK MONDAY BEFORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FA TOWARDS MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL BLO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

EVOLUTION OF THE PCPN INTO OUR FA TONIGHT SEEMS A TAD SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED. MODELS NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT ON WHEN THE ONSET
WILL BE SO KIND OF GOING WITH A BLEND FOR THE TAFS. WILL START OUT
WITH JUST CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM CONVECTION OUT WEST BUT SHOULD SEE
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY LATER IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT
KDVL. KDVL SHOULD ALSO SEE THE PCPN ARRIVE FIRST...THEN PROBABLY
AT KFAR FOLLOWED BY KGFK/KTVF. KBJI MAY NOT SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING
UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. ONCE THE PCPN ROLLS IN IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL STAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF DURATION. KEPT CEILINGS VFR
FOR NOW BUT THEY LIKELY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH
ANY HEAVIER RAIN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KFGF 202233
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
533 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 533 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

WILL DO AN EARLY FORECAST UPDATE TO ADD SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST WHERE SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE ONGOING. WITH WEAK FLOW THESE ARE VERY SLOW MOVERS. THIS WILL
MAKE HEAVY RAIN A POSSIBILITY UNDER ANY OF THESE TONIGHT...SO ALSO
ADDED A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
MT. TROUGH FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHERN MAN AND NORTHERN ND
TONIGHT AND THU. DEEP THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED EAST OF UPPER
TROUGH FOR TONIGHT AND THU. LOW LEVEL JET TO NOSE INTO EASTERN SD
THIS EVENING, THEN SHIFT TO STATES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH FRI. THEREAFTER LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH ENTRANCE REGION IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTER LATE TONIGHT AND
THU. BULK SHEAR UNDER 35 KNOTS. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TO REMAIN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ZONES
THU NIGHT...WILL ADD LOW POPS NORTH.

WILL TRIM BACK POPS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES FRI.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SECOND SHORT WAVE OVER WA/BC BORDER.
THE SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MAN AND NORTHERN
ND FRI. WILL HAVE POPS MAINLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO AFFECT THE AREA SAT AND SO A
HIGHER THREAT FOR PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UNSETTLED PERIOD AS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LIFTS NE
INTO MB REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN PCPN PLACEMENT SO TARGETING SPECIFIC
AREAS FOR RAIN DIFFICULT. WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK MONDAY BEFORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FA TOWARDS MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL BLO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BASED ARRIVAL OF PCPN
FROM SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE MODELS BRINGING SOME RAIN POTENTIAL TO
FAR-DVL AROUND 06Z. CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT THAT HIGH SO JUST
MENTIONED VCSH FOR NOW. SOME POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
FOG AT BJI BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR MENTION AT THIS
POINT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 202233
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
533 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 533 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

WILL DO AN EARLY FORECAST UPDATE TO ADD SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST WHERE SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE ONGOING. WITH WEAK FLOW THESE ARE VERY SLOW MOVERS. THIS WILL
MAKE HEAVY RAIN A POSSIBILITY UNDER ANY OF THESE TONIGHT...SO ALSO
ADDED A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
MT. TROUGH FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHERN MAN AND NORTHERN ND
TONIGHT AND THU. DEEP THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED EAST OF UPPER
TROUGH FOR TONIGHT AND THU. LOW LEVEL JET TO NOSE INTO EASTERN SD
THIS EVENING, THEN SHIFT TO STATES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH FRI. THEREAFTER LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH ENTRANCE REGION IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTER LATE TONIGHT AND
THU. BULK SHEAR UNDER 35 KNOTS. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TO REMAIN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ZONES
THU NIGHT...WILL ADD LOW POPS NORTH.

WILL TRIM BACK POPS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES FRI.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SECOND SHORT WAVE OVER WA/BC BORDER.
THE SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MAN AND NORTHERN
ND FRI. WILL HAVE POPS MAINLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO AFFECT THE AREA SAT AND SO A
HIGHER THREAT FOR PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UNSETTLED PERIOD AS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LIFTS NE
INTO MB REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN PCPN PLACEMENT SO TARGETING SPECIFIC
AREAS FOR RAIN DIFFICULT. WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK MONDAY BEFORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FA TOWARDS MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL BLO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BASED ARRIVAL OF PCPN
FROM SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE MODELS BRINGING SOME RAIN POTENTIAL TO
FAR-DVL AROUND 06Z. CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT THAT HIGH SO JUST
MENTIONED VCSH FOR NOW. SOME POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
FOG AT BJI BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR MENTION AT THIS
POINT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 202224
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
524 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS KBIS-KJMS THIS
EVENING. AT 5 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 202224
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
524 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS KBIS-KJMS THIS
EVENING. AT 5 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD






000
FXUS63 KFGF 202045
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
345 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
MT. TROUGH FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHERN MAN AND NORTHERN ND
TONIGHT AND THU. DEEP THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED EAST OF UPPER
TROUGH FOR TONIGHT AND THU. LOW LEVEL JET TO NOSE INTO EASTERN SD
THIS EVENING, THEN SHIFT TO STATES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH FRI. THEREAFTER LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH ENTRANCE REGION IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTER LATE TONIGHT AND
THU. BULK SHEAR UNDER 35 KNOTS. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TO REMAIN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ZONES
THU NIGHT...WILL ADD LOW POPS NORTH.

WILL TRIM BACK POPS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES FRI.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SECOND SHORT WAVE OVER WA/BC BORDER.
THE SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MAN AND NORTHERN
ND FRI. WILL HAVE POPS MAINLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO AFFECT THE AREA SAT AND SO A
HIGHER THREAT FOR PRECIP.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UNSETTLED PERIOD AS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LIFTS NE
INTO MB REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN PCPN PLACEMENT SO TARGETING SPECIFIC
AREAS FOR RAIN DIFFICULT. WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK MONDAY BEFORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FA TOWARDS MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL BLO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BASED ARRIVAL OF PCPN
FROM SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE MODELS BRINGING SOME RAIN POTENTIAL TO
FAR-DVL AROUND 06Z. CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT THAT HIGH SO JUST
MENTIONED VCSH FOR NOW. SOME POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
FOG AT BJI BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR MENTION AT THIS
POINT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 202045
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
345 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
MT. TROUGH FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHERN MAN AND NORTHERN ND
TONIGHT AND THU. DEEP THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED EAST OF UPPER
TROUGH FOR TONIGHT AND THU. LOW LEVEL JET TO NOSE INTO EASTERN SD
THIS EVENING, THEN SHIFT TO STATES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH FRI. THEREAFTER LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH ENTRANCE REGION IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTER LATE TONIGHT AND
THU. BULK SHEAR UNDER 35 KNOTS. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TO REMAIN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ZONES
THU NIGHT...WILL ADD LOW POPS NORTH.

WILL TRIM BACK POPS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES FRI.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SECOND SHORT WAVE OVER WA/BC BORDER.
THE SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MAN AND NORTHERN
ND FRI. WILL HAVE POPS MAINLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO AFFECT THE AREA SAT AND SO A
HIGHER THREAT FOR PRECIP.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UNSETTLED PERIOD AS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LIFTS NE
INTO MB REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN PCPN PLACEMENT SO TARGETING SPECIFIC
AREAS FOR RAIN DIFFICULT. WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK MONDAY BEFORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FA TOWARDS MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL BLO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BASED ARRIVAL OF PCPN
FROM SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE MODELS BRINGING SOME RAIN POTENTIAL TO
FAR-DVL AROUND 06Z. CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT THAT HIGH SO JUST
MENTIONED VCSH FOR NOW. SOME POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
FOG AT BJI BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR MENTION AT THIS
POINT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KBIS 201946
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
246 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. EMBEDDED MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. SEE TAFS FOR THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND IMPACTS

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
HYDROLOGY...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 201946
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
246 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. EMBEDDED MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. SEE TAFS FOR THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND IMPACTS

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
HYDROLOGY...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 201818
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
118 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH 18 UTC...THE SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST WHERE
FILTERED SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
DEW POINTS. THAT SAID...CONTINUED FILTERED INSOLATION...AND THE
COLD FRONT DISPLACED TO THE WEST FROM THE BEST INSTABILITY... JUST
CROSSING THE MONTANA BORDER AS OF 18 UTC...ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL CENTRAL.

THE FURTHER WEST...ONGOING ELEVATED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THEIR
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SURFACE BASED AND SEVERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

WITH THE 13 UTC OUTLOOK SPC HAS EXPANDED THE DAY ONE SLIGHT RISK
TO INCLUDE MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SEE OUTLOOK
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

DID ADJUST MORNING POPS FOR THE ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL. HEAVY RAIN IS THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WITH CORFIDI VECTORS OF 10 KTS OR
LESS AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE STATE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES REQUIRED.
THE FRESHENED UP TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON FLOODING POTENTIAL AS TWO ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL THREATEN TO BOTH EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING
AND CAUSE NEW IMPACTS.

THE 00 UTC HIRES ARW AND WRF/HRRR HAVE ALL TRENDED SLOWER WITH
ONSET AND NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE 00 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM GLOBAL AND
WPC HAVE ALL HELD WITH THE IDEA THAT CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG
THE ENTIRE INSTABILITY AXIS...AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST BEFORE EXITING
THURSDAY MORNING.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID NOT FAVOR ONE MODEL OVER ANOTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS SO KEPT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH FOR
THE EXTENDED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(HIGHS AROUND 70).

THE GFS HAS NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF PROGGING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING SUNDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. FOR MONDAY...A LITTLE DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
PERSIST. GIVEN THE PATTERN...WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE AT ALL
TAF SITES TODAY. TIMING REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...SO THERE MAY BE
ADJUSTMENTS LATER. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A LONG PERIOD OF
SHRA AT MOST SITES BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THAT SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SOILS ARE NEARLY SATURATED ACROSS MOST OF THE MISSOURI TRIBUTARY
COUNTIES...AND THE MAIN FLOOD THREAT AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN COUNTIES THAT HAVE JUXTAPOSITION OF
NEARLY SATURATED ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS...INSTABILITY...
CORFIDI VECTORS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

BECAUSE OF POTENTIAL CONFUSION WITH SUCH AN EXTENDED DURATION
EVENT...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL...NO FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THIS FIRST ROUND OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD
HYDROLOGY...SCHECK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 201818
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
118 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH 18 UTC...THE SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST WHERE
FILTERED SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
DEW POINTS. THAT SAID...CONTINUED FILTERED INSOLATION...AND THE
COLD FRONT DISPLACED TO THE WEST FROM THE BEST INSTABILITY... JUST
CROSSING THE MONTANA BORDER AS OF 18 UTC...ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL CENTRAL.

THE FURTHER WEST...ONGOING ELEVATED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THEIR
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SURFACE BASED AND SEVERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

WITH THE 13 UTC OUTLOOK SPC HAS EXPANDED THE DAY ONE SLIGHT RISK
TO INCLUDE MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SEE OUTLOOK
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

DID ADJUST MORNING POPS FOR THE ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL. HEAVY RAIN IS THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WITH CORFIDI VECTORS OF 10 KTS OR
LESS AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE STATE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES REQUIRED.
THE FRESHENED UP TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON FLOODING POTENTIAL AS TWO ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL THREATEN TO BOTH EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING
AND CAUSE NEW IMPACTS.

THE 00 UTC HIRES ARW AND WRF/HRRR HAVE ALL TRENDED SLOWER WITH
ONSET AND NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE 00 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM GLOBAL AND
WPC HAVE ALL HELD WITH THE IDEA THAT CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG
THE ENTIRE INSTABILITY AXIS...AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST BEFORE EXITING
THURSDAY MORNING.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID NOT FAVOR ONE MODEL OVER ANOTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS SO KEPT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH FOR
THE EXTENDED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(HIGHS AROUND 70).

THE GFS HAS NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF PROGGING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING SUNDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. FOR MONDAY...A LITTLE DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
PERSIST. GIVEN THE PATTERN...WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE AT ALL
TAF SITES TODAY. TIMING REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...SO THERE MAY BE
ADJUSTMENTS LATER. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A LONG PERIOD OF
SHRA AT MOST SITES BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THAT SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SOILS ARE NEARLY SATURATED ACROSS MOST OF THE MISSOURI TRIBUTARY
COUNTIES...AND THE MAIN FLOOD THREAT AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN COUNTIES THAT HAVE JUXTAPOSITION OF
NEARLY SATURATED ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS...INSTABILITY...
CORFIDI VECTORS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

BECAUSE OF POTENTIAL CONFUSION WITH SUCH AN EXTENDED DURATION
EVENT...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL...NO FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THIS FIRST ROUND OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD
HYDROLOGY...SCHECK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 201818
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
118 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH 18 UTC...THE SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST WHERE
FILTERED SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
DEW POINTS. THAT SAID...CONTINUED FILTERED INSOLATION...AND THE
COLD FRONT DISPLACED TO THE WEST FROM THE BEST INSTABILITY... JUST
CROSSING THE MONTANA BORDER AS OF 18 UTC...ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL CENTRAL.

THE FURTHER WEST...ONGOING ELEVATED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THEIR
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SURFACE BASED AND SEVERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

WITH THE 13 UTC OUTLOOK SPC HAS EXPANDED THE DAY ONE SLIGHT RISK
TO INCLUDE MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SEE OUTLOOK
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

DID ADJUST MORNING POPS FOR THE ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL. HEAVY RAIN IS THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WITH CORFIDI VECTORS OF 10 KTS OR
LESS AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE STATE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES REQUIRED.
THE FRESHENED UP TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON FLOODING POTENTIAL AS TWO ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL THREATEN TO BOTH EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING
AND CAUSE NEW IMPACTS.

THE 00 UTC HIRES ARW AND WRF/HRRR HAVE ALL TRENDED SLOWER WITH
ONSET AND NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE 00 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM GLOBAL AND
WPC HAVE ALL HELD WITH THE IDEA THAT CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG
THE ENTIRE INSTABILITY AXIS...AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST BEFORE EXITING
THURSDAY MORNING.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID NOT FAVOR ONE MODEL OVER ANOTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS SO KEPT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH FOR
THE EXTENDED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(HIGHS AROUND 70).

THE GFS HAS NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF PROGGING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING SUNDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. FOR MONDAY...A LITTLE DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
PERSIST. GIVEN THE PATTERN...WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE AT ALL
TAF SITES TODAY. TIMING REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...SO THERE MAY BE
ADJUSTMENTS LATER. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A LONG PERIOD OF
SHRA AT MOST SITES BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THAT SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SOILS ARE NEARLY SATURATED ACROSS MOST OF THE MISSOURI TRIBUTARY
COUNTIES...AND THE MAIN FLOOD THREAT AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN COUNTIES THAT HAVE JUXTAPOSITION OF
NEARLY SATURATED ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS...INSTABILITY...
CORFIDI VECTORS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

BECAUSE OF POTENTIAL CONFUSION WITH SUCH AN EXTENDED DURATION
EVENT...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL...NO FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THIS FIRST ROUND OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD
HYDROLOGY...SCHECK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 201818
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
118 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH 18 UTC...THE SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST WHERE
FILTERED SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
DEW POINTS. THAT SAID...CONTINUED FILTERED INSOLATION...AND THE
COLD FRONT DISPLACED TO THE WEST FROM THE BEST INSTABILITY... JUST
CROSSING THE MONTANA BORDER AS OF 18 UTC...ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL CENTRAL.

THE FURTHER WEST...ONGOING ELEVATED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THEIR
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SURFACE BASED AND SEVERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

WITH THE 13 UTC OUTLOOK SPC HAS EXPANDED THE DAY ONE SLIGHT RISK
TO INCLUDE MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SEE OUTLOOK
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

DID ADJUST MORNING POPS FOR THE ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL. HEAVY RAIN IS THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WITH CORFIDI VECTORS OF 10 KTS OR
LESS AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE STATE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES REQUIRED.
THE FRESHENED UP TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON FLOODING POTENTIAL AS TWO ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL THREATEN TO BOTH EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING
AND CAUSE NEW IMPACTS.

THE 00 UTC HIRES ARW AND WRF/HRRR HAVE ALL TRENDED SLOWER WITH
ONSET AND NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE 00 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM GLOBAL AND
WPC HAVE ALL HELD WITH THE IDEA THAT CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG
THE ENTIRE INSTABILITY AXIS...AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST BEFORE EXITING
THURSDAY MORNING.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID NOT FAVOR ONE MODEL OVER ANOTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS SO KEPT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH FOR
THE EXTENDED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(HIGHS AROUND 70).

THE GFS HAS NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF PROGGING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING SUNDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. FOR MONDAY...A LITTLE DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
PERSIST. GIVEN THE PATTERN...WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE AT ALL
TAF SITES TODAY. TIMING REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...SO THERE MAY BE
ADJUSTMENTS LATER. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A LONG PERIOD OF
SHRA AT MOST SITES BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THAT SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SOILS ARE NEARLY SATURATED ACROSS MOST OF THE MISSOURI TRIBUTARY
COUNTIES...AND THE MAIN FLOOD THREAT AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN COUNTIES THAT HAVE JUXTAPOSITION OF
NEARLY SATURATED ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS...INSTABILITY...
CORFIDI VECTORS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

BECAUSE OF POTENTIAL CONFUSION WITH SUCH AN EXTENDED DURATION
EVENT...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL...NO FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THIS FIRST ROUND OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD
HYDROLOGY...SCHECK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 201758
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1258 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST. FEW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND FEW STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MAN. TEMPS ARE ON TRACK. TOOK OUT POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE WESTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED SOME CIRRUS BLOW OFF OVER
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF ND. ELSEWHERE CIRRUS WAS OVER SOUTHERN ND
WHICH LOWERS TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ND. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS NOT EXPECT TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ZONES UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. TWEAKED HIGH TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR SO FOR
TODAY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MOST OF THE FOG HAS REMAINED EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH
JUST A FEW PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE VALLEY. THIS
WILL ERODE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TODAY INTO THURSDAY.

SO FAR THIS MORNING...MOST OF THE AREA HAS REMAINED FREE OF FOG
WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH GIVEN THE LIGHT OR
CALM WINDS IN THIS AREA.

THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING THIS
MORNING WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
UNDER DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FEATURE OF INTEREST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. 850 MB TEMPS WILL WARM
A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB A
LITTLE HIGHER...DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THINK
THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO GET GOING LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHWEST
NEARER TO THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT WITHIN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ALSO FARTHER WEST IN ND.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...PW VALUES WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE TO OVER 1.80 INCHES BY THIS EVENING. WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED WHERE STRONGER CONVECTION DOES OCCUR. IN TERMS OF
LOCATION...ONE FAVORED AREA OF PRECIP MAY BE INTO THE DVL
BASIN...CLOSER TO THE UPPER WAVE. MEANWHILE...THE STRONGEST WARM
ADVECTION SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SE ND THIS EVENING LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK DOES INCLUDE FAR
SE ND IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE. THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSEST TO
THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND WARM FRONT. BASED UPON CURRENT FORECASTS
OF SFC FEATURES...THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA...BUT EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO BE
THE GREATEST THREAT.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW MN ON THURSDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...WITH
OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTHWEST. THERMAL PROFILES ARE
NOT A GREAT DEAL COOLER...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP LIKELY WILL
AFFECT TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EJECTING OUT OF THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE.
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND THE SFC BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE
AREA...CURRENTLY NOT SEEING ANY STRONG FORCING SIGNAL. MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEPS THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER WEST. TEMPS ON
FRIDAY STILL APPEAR TO BE NEAR NORMAL...BUT DEPENDENT ON
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

FOR THE WEEKEND...00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TAKEN A BIT FARTHER WEST TRACK
WITH STORM SYSTEM AND 500 MB UPPER LOW THAN PREV DAYS AND ALSO
SLOWED TIMING OF MAIN WAVE ABOUT 24 HOURS.  IT APPEARS MAIN 500 MB
LOW WILL TRACK OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WESTERN MANITOBA.  THUS THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN THAT AREA
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT TIME PERIOD.  A BIT MORE SCATTERED NATURE TO
SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER EAST IN OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THAT
PERIOD.  COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS 850 MB TEMPS
COOL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH COOLEST AIR REMAINING IN CANADA.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LOWER EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT INCREASE A BIT TOWARD
MID WEEK AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS.  TEMPS WILL DROP
TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BASED ARRIVAL OF PCPN
FROM SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE MODELS BRINGING SOME RAIN POTENTIAL TO
FAR-DVL AROUND 06Z. CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT THAT HIGH SO JUST
MENTIONED VCSH FOR NOW. SOME POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
FOG AT BJI BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR MENTION AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 201758
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1258 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST. FEW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND FEW STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MAN. TEMPS ARE ON TRACK. TOOK OUT POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE WESTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED SOME CIRRUS BLOW OFF OVER
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF ND. ELSEWHERE CIRRUS WAS OVER SOUTHERN ND
WHICH LOWERS TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ND. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS NOT EXPECT TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ZONES UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. TWEAKED HIGH TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR SO FOR
TODAY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MOST OF THE FOG HAS REMAINED EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH
JUST A FEW PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE VALLEY. THIS
WILL ERODE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TODAY INTO THURSDAY.

SO FAR THIS MORNING...MOST OF THE AREA HAS REMAINED FREE OF FOG
WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH GIVEN THE LIGHT OR
CALM WINDS IN THIS AREA.

THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING THIS
MORNING WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
UNDER DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FEATURE OF INTEREST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. 850 MB TEMPS WILL WARM
A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB A
LITTLE HIGHER...DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THINK
THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO GET GOING LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHWEST
NEARER TO THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT WITHIN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ALSO FARTHER WEST IN ND.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...PW VALUES WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE TO OVER 1.80 INCHES BY THIS EVENING. WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED WHERE STRONGER CONVECTION DOES OCCUR. IN TERMS OF
LOCATION...ONE FAVORED AREA OF PRECIP MAY BE INTO THE DVL
BASIN...CLOSER TO THE UPPER WAVE. MEANWHILE...THE STRONGEST WARM
ADVECTION SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SE ND THIS EVENING LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK DOES INCLUDE FAR
SE ND IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE. THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSEST TO
THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND WARM FRONT. BASED UPON CURRENT FORECASTS
OF SFC FEATURES...THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA...BUT EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO BE
THE GREATEST THREAT.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW MN ON THURSDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...WITH
OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTHWEST. THERMAL PROFILES ARE
NOT A GREAT DEAL COOLER...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP LIKELY WILL
AFFECT TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EJECTING OUT OF THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE.
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND THE SFC BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE
AREA...CURRENTLY NOT SEEING ANY STRONG FORCING SIGNAL. MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEPS THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER WEST. TEMPS ON
FRIDAY STILL APPEAR TO BE NEAR NORMAL...BUT DEPENDENT ON
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

FOR THE WEEKEND...00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TAKEN A BIT FARTHER WEST TRACK
WITH STORM SYSTEM AND 500 MB UPPER LOW THAN PREV DAYS AND ALSO
SLOWED TIMING OF MAIN WAVE ABOUT 24 HOURS.  IT APPEARS MAIN 500 MB
LOW WILL TRACK OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WESTERN MANITOBA.  THUS THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN THAT AREA
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT TIME PERIOD.  A BIT MORE SCATTERED NATURE TO
SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER EAST IN OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THAT
PERIOD.  COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS 850 MB TEMPS
COOL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH COOLEST AIR REMAINING IN CANADA.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LOWER EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT INCREASE A BIT TOWARD
MID WEEK AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS.  TEMPS WILL DROP
TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BASED ARRIVAL OF PCPN
FROM SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE MODELS BRINGING SOME RAIN POTENTIAL TO
FAR-DVL AROUND 06Z. CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT THAT HIGH SO JUST
MENTIONED VCSH FOR NOW. SOME POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
FOG AT BJI BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR MENTION AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 201507
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1007 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED SOME CIRRUS BLOW OFF OVER
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF ND. ELSEWHERE CIRRUS WAS OVER SOUTHERN ND
WHICH LOWERS TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ND. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS NOT EXPECT TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ZONES UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. TWEAKED HIGH TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR SO FOR
TODAY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MOST OF THE FOG HAS REMAINED EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH
JUST A FEW PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE VALLEY. THIS
WILL ERODE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TODAY INTO THURSDAY.

SO FAR THIS MORNING...MOST OF THE AREA HAS REMAINED FREE OF FOG
WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH GIVEN THE LIGHT OR
CALM WINDS IN THIS AREA.

THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING THIS
MORNING WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
UNDER DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FEATURE OF INTEREST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. 850 MB TEMPS WILL WARM
A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB A
LITTLE HIGHER...DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THINK
THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO GET GOING LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHWEST
NEARER TO THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT WITHIN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ALSO FARTHER WEST IN ND.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...PW VALUES WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE TO OVER 1.80 INCHES BY THIS EVENING. WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED WHERE STRONGER CONVECTION DOES OCCUR. IN TERMS OF
LOCATION...ONE FAVORED AREA OF PRECIP MAY BE INTO THE DVL
BASIN...CLOSER TO THE UPPER WAVE. MEANWHILE...THE STRONGEST WARM
ADVECTION SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SE ND THIS EVENING LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK DOES INCLUDE FAR
SE ND IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE. THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSEST TO
THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND WARM FRONT. BASED UPON CURRENT FORECASTS
OF SFC FEATURES...THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA...BUT EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO BE
THE GREATEST THREAT.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW MN ON THURSDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...WITH
OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTHWEST. THERMAL PROFILES ARE
NOT A GREAT DEAL COOLER...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP LIKELY WILL
AFFECT TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EJECTING OUT OF THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE.
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND THE SFC BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE
AREA...CURRENTLY NOT SEEING ANY STRONG FORCING SIGNAL. MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEPS THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER WEST. TEMPS ON
FRIDAY STILL APPEAR TO BE NEAR NORMAL...BUT DEPENDENT ON
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

FOR THE WEEKEND...00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TAKEN A BIT FARTHER WEST TRACK
WITH STORM SYSTEM AND 500 MB UPPER LOW THAN PREV DAYS AND ALSO
SLOWED TIMING OF MAIN WAVE ABOUT 24 HOURS.  IT APPEARS MAIN 500 MB
LOW WILL TRACK OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WESTERN MANITOBA.  THUS THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN THAT AREA
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT TIME PERIOD.  A BIT MORE SCATTERED NATURE TO
SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER EAST IN OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THAT
PERIOD.  COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS 850 MB TEMPS
COOL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH COOLEST AIR REMAINING IN CANADA.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LOWER EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT INCREASE A BIT TOWARD
MID WEEK AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS.  TEMPS WILL DROP
TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HIGH/MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING SE
WINDS GUSTING AT TIMES TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING.
MAINTAINED VICINITY THUNDER DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AT
EACH SITE. GUSTY WINDS AND VSBY/CIGS BELOW VFR THRESHOLDS POSSIBLE
WITH STRONGER STORMS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI







000
FXUS63 KFGF 201507
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1007 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED SOME CIRRUS BLOW OFF OVER
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF ND. ELSEWHERE CIRRUS WAS OVER SOUTHERN ND
WHICH LOWERS TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ND. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS NOT EXPECT TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ZONES UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. TWEAKED HIGH TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR SO FOR
TODAY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MOST OF THE FOG HAS REMAINED EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH
JUST A FEW PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE VALLEY. THIS
WILL ERODE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TODAY INTO THURSDAY.

SO FAR THIS MORNING...MOST OF THE AREA HAS REMAINED FREE OF FOG
WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH GIVEN THE LIGHT OR
CALM WINDS IN THIS AREA.

THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING THIS
MORNING WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
UNDER DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FEATURE OF INTEREST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. 850 MB TEMPS WILL WARM
A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB A
LITTLE HIGHER...DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THINK
THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO GET GOING LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHWEST
NEARER TO THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT WITHIN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ALSO FARTHER WEST IN ND.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...PW VALUES WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE TO OVER 1.80 INCHES BY THIS EVENING. WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED WHERE STRONGER CONVECTION DOES OCCUR. IN TERMS OF
LOCATION...ONE FAVORED AREA OF PRECIP MAY BE INTO THE DVL
BASIN...CLOSER TO THE UPPER WAVE. MEANWHILE...THE STRONGEST WARM
ADVECTION SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SE ND THIS EVENING LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK DOES INCLUDE FAR
SE ND IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE. THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSEST TO
THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND WARM FRONT. BASED UPON CURRENT FORECASTS
OF SFC FEATURES...THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA...BUT EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO BE
THE GREATEST THREAT.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW MN ON THURSDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...WITH
OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTHWEST. THERMAL PROFILES ARE
NOT A GREAT DEAL COOLER...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP LIKELY WILL
AFFECT TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EJECTING OUT OF THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE.
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND THE SFC BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE
AREA...CURRENTLY NOT SEEING ANY STRONG FORCING SIGNAL. MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEPS THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER WEST. TEMPS ON
FRIDAY STILL APPEAR TO BE NEAR NORMAL...BUT DEPENDENT ON
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

FOR THE WEEKEND...00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TAKEN A BIT FARTHER WEST TRACK
WITH STORM SYSTEM AND 500 MB UPPER LOW THAN PREV DAYS AND ALSO
SLOWED TIMING OF MAIN WAVE ABOUT 24 HOURS.  IT APPEARS MAIN 500 MB
LOW WILL TRACK OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WESTERN MANITOBA.  THUS THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN THAT AREA
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT TIME PERIOD.  A BIT MORE SCATTERED NATURE TO
SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER EAST IN OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THAT
PERIOD.  COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS 850 MB TEMPS
COOL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH COOLEST AIR REMAINING IN CANADA.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LOWER EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT INCREASE A BIT TOWARD
MID WEEK AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS.  TEMPS WILL DROP
TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HIGH/MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING SE
WINDS GUSTING AT TIMES TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING.
MAINTAINED VICINITY THUNDER DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AT
EACH SITE. GUSTY WINDS AND VSBY/CIGS BELOW VFR THRESHOLDS POSSIBLE
WITH STRONGER STORMS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI






000
FXUS63 KBIS 201429
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
929 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

WITH THE 13 UTC OUTLOOK SPC HAS EXPANDED THE DAY ONE SLIGHT RISK
TO INCLUDE MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SEE OUTLOOK
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

DID ADJUST MORNING POPS FOR THE ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL. HEAVY RAIN IS THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WITH CORFIDI VECTORS OF 10 KTS OR
LESS AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE STATE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES REQUIRED.
THE FRESHENED UP TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON FLOODING POTENTIAL AS TWO ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL THREATEN TO BOTH EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING
AND CAUSE NEW IMPACTS.

THE 00 UTC HIRES ARW AND WRF/HRRR HAVE ALL TRENDED SLOWER WITH
ONSET AND NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE 00 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM GLOBAL AND
WPC HAVE ALL HELD WITH THE IDEA THAT CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG
THE ENTIRE INSTABILITY AXIS...AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST BEFORE EXITING
THURSDAY MORNING.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID NOT FAVOR ONE MODEL OVER ANOTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS SO KEPT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH FOR
THE EXTENDED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(HIGHS AROUND 70).

THE GFS HAS NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF PROGGING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING SUNDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. FOR MONDAY...A LITTLE DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
PERSIST. GIVEN THE PATTERN...WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 827 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE AT ALL
TAF SITES TODAY. TIMING REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...SO THERE MAY BE
ADJUSTMENTS LATER. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A LONG PERIOD OF
SHRA AT MOST SITES BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THAT SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SOILS ARE NEARLY SATURATED ACROSS MOST OF THE MISSOURI TRIBUTARY
COUNTIES...AND THE MAIN FLOOD THREAT AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN COUNTIES THAT HAVE JUXTAPOSITION OF
NEARLY SATURATED ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS...INSTABILITY...
CORFIDI VECTORS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

BECAUSE OF POTENTIAL CONFUSION WITH SUCH AN EXTENDED DURATION
EVENT...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL...NO FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THIS FIRST ROUND OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD
HYDROLOGY...SCHECK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 201136
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MOST OF THE FOG HAS REMAINED EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH
JUST A FEW PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE VALLEY. THIS
WILL ERODE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TODAY INTO THURSDAY.

SO FAR THIS MORNING...MOST OF THE AREA HAS REMAINED FREE OF FOG
WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH GIVEN THE LIGHT OR
CALM WINDS IN THIS AREA.

THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING THIS
MORNING WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
UNDER DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FEATURE OF INTEREST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. 850 MB TEMPS WILL WARM
A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB A
LITTLE HIGHER...DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THINK
THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO GET GOING LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHWEST
NEARER TO THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT WITHIN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ALSO FARTHER WEST IN ND.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...PW VALUES WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE TO OVER 1.80 INCHES BY THIS EVENING. WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED WHERE STRONGER CONVECTION DOES OCCUR. IN TERMS OF
LOCATION...ONE FAVORED AREA OF PRECIP MAY BE INTO THE DVL
BASIN...CLOSER TO THE UPPER WAVE. MEANWHILE...THE STRONGEST WARM
ADVECTION SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SE ND THIS EVENING LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK DOES INCLUDE FAR
SE ND IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE. THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSEST TO
THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND WARM FRONT. BASED UPON CURRRENT FORECASTS
OF SFC FEATURES...THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA...BUT EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO BE
THE GREATEST THREAT.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW MN ON THURSDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...WITH
OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTHWEST. THERMAL PROFILES ARE
NOT A GREAT DEAL COOLER...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP LIKELY WILL
AFFECT TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EJECTING OUT OF THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE.
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND THE SFC BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE
AREA...CURRENTLY NOT SEEING ANY STRONG FORCING SIGNAL. MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEPS THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER WEST. TEMPS ON
FRIDAY STILL APPEAR TO BE NEAR NORMAL...BUT DEPENDENT ON
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

FOR THE WEEKEND...00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TAKEN A BIT FARTHER WEST TRACK
WITH STORM SYSTEM AND 500 MB UPPER LOW THAN PREV DAYS AND ALSO
SLOWED TIMING OF MAIN WAVE ABOUT 24 HOURS.  IT APPEARS MAIN 500 MB
LOW WILL TRACK OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WESTERN MANITOBA.  THUS THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN THAT AREA
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT TIME PERIOD.  A BIT MORE SCATTERED NATURE TO
SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER EAST IN OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THAT
PERIOD.  COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS 850 MB TEMPS
COOL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH COOLEST AIR REMAINING IN CANADA.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LOWER EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT INCREASE A BIT TOWARD
MID WEEK AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS.  TEMPS WILL DROP
TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HIGH/MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING SE
WINDS GUSTING AT TIMES TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING.
MAINTAINED VICINITY THUNDER DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AT
EACH SITE. GUSTY WINDS AND VSBY/CIGS BELOW VFR THRESHOLDS POSSIBLE
WITH STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI






000
FXUS63 KFGF 201136
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MOST OF THE FOG HAS REMAINED EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH
JUST A FEW PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE VALLEY. THIS
WILL ERODE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TODAY INTO THURSDAY.

SO FAR THIS MORNING...MOST OF THE AREA HAS REMAINED FREE OF FOG
WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH GIVEN THE LIGHT OR
CALM WINDS IN THIS AREA.

THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING THIS
MORNING WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
UNDER DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FEATURE OF INTEREST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. 850 MB TEMPS WILL WARM
A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB A
LITTLE HIGHER...DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THINK
THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO GET GOING LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHWEST
NEARER TO THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT WITHIN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ALSO FARTHER WEST IN ND.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...PW VALUES WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE TO OVER 1.80 INCHES BY THIS EVENING. WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED WHERE STRONGER CONVECTION DOES OCCUR. IN TERMS OF
LOCATION...ONE FAVORED AREA OF PRECIP MAY BE INTO THE DVL
BASIN...CLOSER TO THE UPPER WAVE. MEANWHILE...THE STRONGEST WARM
ADVECTION SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SE ND THIS EVENING LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK DOES INCLUDE FAR
SE ND IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE. THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSEST TO
THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND WARM FRONT. BASED UPON CURRRENT FORECASTS
OF SFC FEATURES...THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA...BUT EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO BE
THE GREATEST THREAT.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW MN ON THURSDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...WITH
OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTHWEST. THERMAL PROFILES ARE
NOT A GREAT DEAL COOLER...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP LIKELY WILL
AFFECT TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EJECTING OUT OF THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE.
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND THE SFC BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE
AREA...CURRENTLY NOT SEEING ANY STRONG FORCING SIGNAL. MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEPS THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER WEST. TEMPS ON
FRIDAY STILL APPEAR TO BE NEAR NORMAL...BUT DEPENDENT ON
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

FOR THE WEEKEND...00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TAKEN A BIT FARTHER WEST TRACK
WITH STORM SYSTEM AND 500 MB UPPER LOW THAN PREV DAYS AND ALSO
SLOWED TIMING OF MAIN WAVE ABOUT 24 HOURS.  IT APPEARS MAIN 500 MB
LOW WILL TRACK OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WESTERN MANITOBA.  THUS THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN THAT AREA
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT TIME PERIOD.  A BIT MORE SCATTERED NATURE TO
SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER EAST IN OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THAT
PERIOD.  COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS 850 MB TEMPS
COOL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH COOLEST AIR REMAINING IN CANADA.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LOWER EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT INCREASE A BIT TOWARD
MID WEEK AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS.  TEMPS WILL DROP
TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HIGH/MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING SE
WINDS GUSTING AT TIMES TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING.
MAINTAINED VICINITY THUNDER DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AT
EACH SITE. GUSTY WINDS AND VSBY/CIGS BELOW VFR THRESHOLDS POSSIBLE
WITH STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI






000
FXUS63 KFGF 201136
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MOST OF THE FOG HAS REMAINED EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH
JUST A FEW PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE VALLEY. THIS
WILL ERODE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TODAY INTO THURSDAY.

SO FAR THIS MORNING...MOST OF THE AREA HAS REMAINED FREE OF FOG
WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH GIVEN THE LIGHT OR
CALM WINDS IN THIS AREA.

THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING THIS
MORNING WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
UNDER DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FEATURE OF INTEREST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. 850 MB TEMPS WILL WARM
A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB A
LITTLE HIGHER...DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THINK
THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO GET GOING LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHWEST
NEARER TO THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT WITHIN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ALSO FARTHER WEST IN ND.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...PW VALUES WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE TO OVER 1.80 INCHES BY THIS EVENING. WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED WHERE STRONGER CONVECTION DOES OCCUR. IN TERMS OF
LOCATION...ONE FAVORED AREA OF PRECIP MAY BE INTO THE DVL
BASIN...CLOSER TO THE UPPER WAVE. MEANWHILE...THE STRONGEST WARM
ADVECTION SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SE ND THIS EVENING LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK DOES INCLUDE FAR
SE ND IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE. THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSEST TO
THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND WARM FRONT. BASED UPON CURRRENT FORECASTS
OF SFC FEATURES...THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA...BUT EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO BE
THE GREATEST THREAT.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW MN ON THURSDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...WITH
OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTHWEST. THERMAL PROFILES ARE
NOT A GREAT DEAL COOLER...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP LIKELY WILL
AFFECT TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EJECTING OUT OF THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE.
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND THE SFC BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE
AREA...CURRENTLY NOT SEEING ANY STRONG FORCING SIGNAL. MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEPS THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER WEST. TEMPS ON
FRIDAY STILL APPEAR TO BE NEAR NORMAL...BUT DEPENDENT ON
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

FOR THE WEEKEND...00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TAKEN A BIT FARTHER WEST TRACK
WITH STORM SYSTEM AND 500 MB UPPER LOW THAN PREV DAYS AND ALSO
SLOWED TIMING OF MAIN WAVE ABOUT 24 HOURS.  IT APPEARS MAIN 500 MB
LOW WILL TRACK OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WESTERN MANITOBA.  THUS THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN THAT AREA
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT TIME PERIOD.  A BIT MORE SCATTERED NATURE TO
SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER EAST IN OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THAT
PERIOD.  COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS 850 MB TEMPS
COOL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH COOLEST AIR REMAINING IN CANADA.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LOWER EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT INCREASE A BIT TOWARD
MID WEEK AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS.  TEMPS WILL DROP
TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HIGH/MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING SE
WINDS GUSTING AT TIMES TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING.
MAINTAINED VICINITY THUNDER DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AT
EACH SITE. GUSTY WINDS AND VSBY/CIGS BELOW VFR THRESHOLDS POSSIBLE
WITH STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI






000
FXUS63 KFGF 201136
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MOST OF THE FOG HAS REMAINED EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH
JUST A FEW PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE VALLEY. THIS
WILL ERODE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TODAY INTO THURSDAY.

SO FAR THIS MORNING...MOST OF THE AREA HAS REMAINED FREE OF FOG
WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH GIVEN THE LIGHT OR
CALM WINDS IN THIS AREA.

THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING THIS
MORNING WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
UNDER DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FEATURE OF INTEREST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. 850 MB TEMPS WILL WARM
A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB A
LITTLE HIGHER...DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THINK
THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO GET GOING LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHWEST
NEARER TO THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT WITHIN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ALSO FARTHER WEST IN ND.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...PW VALUES WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE TO OVER 1.80 INCHES BY THIS EVENING. WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED WHERE STRONGER CONVECTION DOES OCCUR. IN TERMS OF
LOCATION...ONE FAVORED AREA OF PRECIP MAY BE INTO THE DVL
BASIN...CLOSER TO THE UPPER WAVE. MEANWHILE...THE STRONGEST WARM
ADVECTION SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SE ND THIS EVENING LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK DOES INCLUDE FAR
SE ND IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE. THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSEST TO
THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND WARM FRONT. BASED UPON CURRRENT FORECASTS
OF SFC FEATURES...THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA...BUT EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO BE
THE GREATEST THREAT.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW MN ON THURSDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...WITH
OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTHWEST. THERMAL PROFILES ARE
NOT A GREAT DEAL COOLER...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP LIKELY WILL
AFFECT TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EJECTING OUT OF THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE.
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND THE SFC BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE
AREA...CURRENTLY NOT SEEING ANY STRONG FORCING SIGNAL. MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEPS THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER WEST. TEMPS ON
FRIDAY STILL APPEAR TO BE NEAR NORMAL...BUT DEPENDENT ON
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

FOR THE WEEKEND...00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TAKEN A BIT FARTHER WEST TRACK
WITH STORM SYSTEM AND 500 MB UPPER LOW THAN PREV DAYS AND ALSO
SLOWED TIMING OF MAIN WAVE ABOUT 24 HOURS.  IT APPEARS MAIN 500 MB
LOW WILL TRACK OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WESTERN MANITOBA.  THUS THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN THAT AREA
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT TIME PERIOD.  A BIT MORE SCATTERED NATURE TO
SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER EAST IN OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THAT
PERIOD.  COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS 850 MB TEMPS
COOL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH COOLEST AIR REMAINING IN CANADA.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LOWER EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT INCREASE A BIT TOWARD
MID WEEK AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS.  TEMPS WILL DROP
TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HIGH/MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING SE
WINDS GUSTING AT TIMES TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING.
MAINTAINED VICINITY THUNDER DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AT
EACH SITE. GUSTY WINDS AND VSBY/CIGS BELOW VFR THRESHOLDS POSSIBLE
WITH STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI






000
FXUS63 KBIS 201135
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE STATE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES REQUIRED.
THE FRESHENED UP TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON FLOODING POTENTIAL AS TWO ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL THREATEN TO BOTH EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING
AND CAUSE NEW IMPACTS.

THE 00 UTC HIRES ARW AND WRF/HRRR HAVE ALL TRENDED SLOWER WITH
ONSET AND NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE 00 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM GLOBAL AND
WPC HAVE ALL HELD WITH THE IDEA THAT CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG
THE ENTIRE INSTABILITY AXIS...AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST BEFORE EXITING
THURSDAY MORNING.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID NOT FAVOR ONE MODEL OVER ANOTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS SO KEPT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH FOR
THE EXTENDED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(HIGHS AROUND 70).

THE GFS HAS NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF PROGGING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING SUNDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. FOR MONDAY...A LITTLE DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
PERSIST. GIVEN THE PATTERN...WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE AT ALL
TAF SITES TODAY. TIMING REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...SO THERE MAY BE
ADJUSTMENTS LATER. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A LONG PERIOD OF
SHRA AT MOST SITES BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THAT SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SOILS ARE NEARLY SATURATED ACROSS MOST OF THE MISSOURI TRIBUTARY
COUNTIES...AND THE MAIN FLOOD THREAT AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN COUNTIES THAT HAVE JUXTAPOSITION OF
NEARLY SATURATED ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS...INSTABILITY...
CORFIDI VECTORS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

BECAUSE OF POTENTIAL CONFUSION WITH SUCH AN EXTENDED DURATION
EVENT...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL...NO FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THIS FIRST ROUND OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...SCHECK
HYDROLOGY...SCHECK




000
FXUS63 KBIS 201135
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE STATE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES REQUIRED.
THE FRESHENED UP TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON FLOODING POTENTIAL AS TWO ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL THREATEN TO BOTH EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING
AND CAUSE NEW IMPACTS.

THE 00 UTC HIRES ARW AND WRF/HRRR HAVE ALL TRENDED SLOWER WITH
ONSET AND NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE 00 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM GLOBAL AND
WPC HAVE ALL HELD WITH THE IDEA THAT CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG
THE ENTIRE INSTABILITY AXIS...AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST BEFORE EXITING
THURSDAY MORNING.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID NOT FAVOR ONE MODEL OVER ANOTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS SO KEPT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH FOR
THE EXTENDED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(HIGHS AROUND 70).

THE GFS HAS NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF PROGGING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING SUNDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. FOR MONDAY...A LITTLE DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
PERSIST. GIVEN THE PATTERN...WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE AT ALL
TAF SITES TODAY. TIMING REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...SO THERE MAY BE
ADJUSTMENTS LATER. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A LONG PERIOD OF
SHRA AT MOST SITES BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THAT SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SOILS ARE NEARLY SATURATED ACROSS MOST OF THE MISSOURI TRIBUTARY
COUNTIES...AND THE MAIN FLOOD THREAT AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN COUNTIES THAT HAVE JUXTAPOSITION OF
NEARLY SATURATED ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS...INSTABILITY...
CORFIDI VECTORS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

BECAUSE OF POTENTIAL CONFUSION WITH SUCH AN EXTENDED DURATION
EVENT...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL...NO FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THIS FIRST ROUND OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...SCHECK
HYDROLOGY...SCHECK





000
FXUS63 KBIS 200932
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A POTENT WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL DIRECT A
SERIES OF MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON FLOODING POTENTIAL AS TWO ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL THREATEN TO BOTH EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING
AND CAUSE NEW IMPACTS.

THE 00 UTC HIRES ARW AND WRF/HRRR HAVE ALL TRENDED SLOWER WITH
ONSET AND NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE 00 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM GLOBAL AND
WPC HAVE ALL HELD WITH THE IDEA THAT CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG
THE ENTIRE INSTABILITY AXIS...AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST BEFORE EXITING
THURSDAY MORNING.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID NOT FAVOR ONE MODEL OVER ANOTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS SO KEPT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH FOR
THE EXTENDED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(HIGHS AROUND 70).

THE GFS HAS NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF PROGGING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING SUNDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. FOR MONDAY...A LITTLE DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
PERSIST. GIVEN THE PATTERN...WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT BEYOND THAT TREND...SO THE
TIMING IN TAFS IS A BEST GUESS. THERE COULD BE MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SOILS ARE NEARLY SATURATED ACROSS MOST OF THE MISSOURI TRIBUTARY
COUNTIES...AND THE MAIN FLOOD THREAT AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN COUNTIES THAT HAVE JUXTAPOSITION OF
NEARLY SATURATED ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS...INSTABILITY...
CORFIDI VECTORS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

BECAUSE OF POTENTIAL CONFUSION WITH SUCH AN EXTENDED DURATION
EVENT...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL...NO FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THIS FIRST ROUND OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...SCHECK
HYDROLOGY...SCHECK




000
FXUS63 KBIS 200932
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A POTENT WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL DIRECT A
SERIES OF MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON FLOODING POTENTIAL AS TWO ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL THREATEN TO BOTH EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING
AND CAUSE NEW IMPACTS.

THE 00 UTC HIRES ARW AND WRF/HRRR HAVE ALL TRENDED SLOWER WITH
ONSET AND NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE 00 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM GLOBAL AND
WPC HAVE ALL HELD WITH THE IDEA THAT CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG
THE ENTIRE INSTABILITY AXIS...AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST BEFORE EXITING
THURSDAY MORNING.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID NOT FAVOR ONE MODEL OVER ANOTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS SO KEPT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH FOR
THE EXTENDED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(HIGHS AROUND 70).

THE GFS HAS NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF PROGGING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING SUNDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. FOR MONDAY...A LITTLE DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
PERSIST. GIVEN THE PATTERN...WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT BEYOND THAT TREND...SO THE
TIMING IN TAFS IS A BEST GUESS. THERE COULD BE MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SOILS ARE NEARLY SATURATED ACROSS MOST OF THE MISSOURI TRIBUTARY
COUNTIES...AND THE MAIN FLOOD THREAT AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN COUNTIES THAT HAVE JUXTAPOSITION OF
NEARLY SATURATED ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS...INSTABILITY...
CORFIDI VECTORS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

BECAUSE OF POTENTIAL CONFUSION WITH SUCH AN EXTENDED DURATION
EVENT...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL...NO FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THIS FIRST ROUND OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...SCHECK
HYDROLOGY...SCHECK




000
FXUS63 KBIS 200932
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A POTENT WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL DIRECT A
SERIES OF MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON FLOODING POTENTIAL AS TWO ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL THREATEN TO BOTH EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING
AND CAUSE NEW IMPACTS.

THE 00 UTC HIRES ARW AND WRF/HRRR HAVE ALL TRENDED SLOWER WITH
ONSET AND NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE 00 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM GLOBAL AND
WPC HAVE ALL HELD WITH THE IDEA THAT CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG
THE ENTIRE INSTABILITY AXIS...AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST BEFORE EXITING
THURSDAY MORNING.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID NOT FAVOR ONE MODEL OVER ANOTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS SO KEPT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH FOR
THE EXTENDED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(HIGHS AROUND 70).

THE GFS HAS NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF PROGGING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING SUNDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. FOR MONDAY...A LITTLE DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
PERSIST. GIVEN THE PATTERN...WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT BEYOND THAT TREND...SO THE
TIMING IN TAFS IS A BEST GUESS. THERE COULD BE MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SOILS ARE NEARLY SATURATED ACROSS MOST OF THE MISSOURI TRIBUTARY
COUNTIES...AND THE MAIN FLOOD THREAT AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN COUNTIES THAT HAVE JUXTAPOSITION OF
NEARLY SATURATED ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS...INSTABILITY...
CORFIDI VECTORS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

BECAUSE OF POTENTIAL CONFUSION WITH SUCH AN EXTENDED DURATION
EVENT...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL...NO FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THIS FIRST ROUND OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...SCHECK
HYDROLOGY...SCHECK




000
FXUS63 KBIS 200932
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A POTENT WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL DIRECT A
SERIES OF MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON FLOODING POTENTIAL AS TWO ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL THREATEN TO BOTH EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING
AND CAUSE NEW IMPACTS.

THE 00 UTC HIRES ARW AND WRF/HRRR HAVE ALL TRENDED SLOWER WITH
ONSET AND NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE 00 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM GLOBAL AND
WPC HAVE ALL HELD WITH THE IDEA THAT CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG
THE ENTIRE INSTABILITY AXIS...AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST BEFORE EXITING
THURSDAY MORNING.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID NOT FAVOR ONE MODEL OVER ANOTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS SO KEPT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH FOR
THE EXTENDED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(HIGHS AROUND 70).

THE GFS HAS NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF PROGGING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING SUNDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. FOR MONDAY...A LITTLE DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
PERSIST. GIVEN THE PATTERN...WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT BEYOND THAT TREND...SO THE
TIMING IN TAFS IS A BEST GUESS. THERE COULD BE MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SOILS ARE NEARLY SATURATED ACROSS MOST OF THE MISSOURI TRIBUTARY
COUNTIES...AND THE MAIN FLOOD THREAT AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN COUNTIES THAT HAVE JUXTAPOSITION OF
NEARLY SATURATED ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS...INSTABILITY...
CORFIDI VECTORS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

BECAUSE OF POTENTIAL CONFUSION WITH SUCH AN EXTENDED DURATION
EVENT...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL...NO FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THIS FIRST ROUND OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...SCHECK
HYDROLOGY...SCHECK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 200850
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
350 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TODAY INTO THURSDAY.

SO FAR THIS MORNING...MOST OF THE AREA HAS REMAINED FREE OF FOG
WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH GIVEN THE LIGHT OR
CALM WINDS IN THIS AREA.

THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING THIS
MORNING WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
UNDER DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FEATURE OF INTEREST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. 850 MB TEMPS WILL WARM
A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB A
LITTLE HIGHER...DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THINK
THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO GET GOING LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHWEST
NEARER TO THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT WITHIN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ALSO FARTHER WEST IN ND.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...PW VALUES WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE TO OVER 1.80 INCHES BY THIS EVENING. WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED WHERE STRONGER CONVECTION DOES OCCUR. IN TERMS OF
LOCATION...ONE FAVORED AREA OF PRECIP MAY BE INTO THE DVL
BASIN...CLOSER TO THE UPPER WAVE. MEANWHILE...THE STRONGEST WARM
ADVECTION SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SE ND THIS EVENING LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK DOES INCLUDE FAR
SE ND IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE. THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSEST TO
THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND WARM FRONT. BASED UPON CURRRENT FORECASTS
OF SFC FEATURES...THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA...BUT EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO BE
THE GREATEST THREAT.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW MN ON THURSDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...WITH
OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTHWEST. THERMAL PROFILES ARE
NOT A GREAT DEAL COOLER...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP LIKELY WILL
AFFECT TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EJECTING OUT OF THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE.
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND THE SFC BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE
AREA...CURRENTLY NOT SEEING ANY STRONG FORCING SIGNAL. MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEPS THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER WEST. TEMPS ON
FRIDAY STILL APPEAR TO BE NEAR NORMAL...BUT DEPENDENT ON
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

FOR THE WEEKEND...00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TAKEN A BIT FARTHER WEST TRACK
WITH STORM SYSTEM AND 500 MB UPPER LOW THAN PREV DAYS AND ALSO
SLOWED TIMING OF MAIN WAVE ABOUT 24 HOURS.  IT APPEARS MAIN 500 MB
LOW WILL TRACK OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WESTERN MANITOBA.  THUS THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN THAT AREA
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT TIME PERIOD.  A BIT MORE SCATTERED NATURE TO
SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER EAST IN OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THAT
PERIOD.  COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS 850 MB TEMPS
COOL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH COOLEST AIR REMAINING IN CANADA.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LOWER EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT INCREASE A BIT TOWARD
MID WEEK AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS.  TEMPS WILL DROP
TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE EAST...BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR EVEN IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE ON WED...ALONG WITH VFR MID CLOUDS MOVING IN BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AFTER
00Z THU...AND HAVE STARTED TO MENTION SOME VCTS AT ALL
SITES...WITH TIMING STILL A BIT IN QUESTION.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 200850
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
350 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TODAY INTO THURSDAY.

SO FAR THIS MORNING...MOST OF THE AREA HAS REMAINED FREE OF FOG
WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH GIVEN THE LIGHT OR
CALM WINDS IN THIS AREA.

THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING THIS
MORNING WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
UNDER DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FEATURE OF INTEREST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. 850 MB TEMPS WILL WARM
A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB A
LITTLE HIGHER...DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THINK
THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO GET GOING LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHWEST
NEARER TO THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT WITHIN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ALSO FARTHER WEST IN ND.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...PW VALUES WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE TO OVER 1.80 INCHES BY THIS EVENING. WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED WHERE STRONGER CONVECTION DOES OCCUR. IN TERMS OF
LOCATION...ONE FAVORED AREA OF PRECIP MAY BE INTO THE DVL
BASIN...CLOSER TO THE UPPER WAVE. MEANWHILE...THE STRONGEST WARM
ADVECTION SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SE ND THIS EVENING LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK DOES INCLUDE FAR
SE ND IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE. THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSEST TO
THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND WARM FRONT. BASED UPON CURRRENT FORECASTS
OF SFC FEATURES...THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA...BUT EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO BE
THE GREATEST THREAT.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW MN ON THURSDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...WITH
OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTHWEST. THERMAL PROFILES ARE
NOT A GREAT DEAL COOLER...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP LIKELY WILL
AFFECT TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EJECTING OUT OF THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE.
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND THE SFC BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE
AREA...CURRENTLY NOT SEEING ANY STRONG FORCING SIGNAL. MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEPS THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER WEST. TEMPS ON
FRIDAY STILL APPEAR TO BE NEAR NORMAL...BUT DEPENDENT ON
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

FOR THE WEEKEND...00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TAKEN A BIT FARTHER WEST TRACK
WITH STORM SYSTEM AND 500 MB UPPER LOW THAN PREV DAYS AND ALSO
SLOWED TIMING OF MAIN WAVE ABOUT 24 HOURS.  IT APPEARS MAIN 500 MB
LOW WILL TRACK OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WESTERN MANITOBA.  THUS THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN THAT AREA
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT TIME PERIOD.  A BIT MORE SCATTERED NATURE TO
SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER EAST IN OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THAT
PERIOD.  COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS 850 MB TEMPS
COOL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH COOLEST AIR REMAINING IN CANADA.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LOWER EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT INCREASE A BIT TOWARD
MID WEEK AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS.  TEMPS WILL DROP
TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE EAST...BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR EVEN IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE ON WED...ALONG WITH VFR MID CLOUDS MOVING IN BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AFTER
00Z THU...AND HAVE STARTED TO MENTION SOME VCTS AT ALL
SITES...WITH TIMING STILL A BIT IN QUESTION.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 200622
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
122 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND THE
FLOOD RISK. THE 00 UTC HIRES ARW AND WRF AND HRRR ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS TOO FAST WITH THE ONSET OF
CONVECTION. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A TREND TOWARD PUSHING CONVECTION
FURTHER NORTH...WHICH WOULD SPARE MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST FROM
HEAVIER AMOUNTS. DECISIONS WILL NEED TO BE MADE THIS MORNING
REGARDING ANY FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCHES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION LIFTING THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL. ALSO WEAK CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. MODELS DO SHOW AN INCREASING JET OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT IN AN AREA OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT. COULD POSSIBLY BE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT SO
EXTENDED SOME SLIGHT POPS EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND 25-35
KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR. ONE HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED FROM BOWMAN
INTO ADAMS COUNTY. THE SECOND IS STILL HOLDING TOGETHER OVER
CENTRAL SLOPE. WILL MAINTAIN OUR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. A FEW CELLS TRIED TO FIRE OVER THE NORTHWEST BUT WITH
LESS LUCK IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST BUT IS HAVING A HARD
TIME MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WILL HOLD OFF ON BRINGING ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE
FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE QUIET ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE PROBLEM IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER
UTAH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID 50S WEST AND IN THE 60S OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND APPROACHES
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. IN RESPONSE...THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD SO THAT BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY IT IS ALONG
THE MONTANA/DAKOTAS BORDER. SOME MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THE WEST...AND HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED/SMALL CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHORTLY AFTER/AT DAYBREAK THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT MORNING
HOURS. AROUND/AFTER NOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD AND NUMEROUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE IMPACTING ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH DECREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE NOT COMING TO A GOOD
CONSENSUS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE NAM
MODEL IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...WITH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (SOURIS
RIVER BASIN) TAKING THE BIGGEST HIT. THE GFS/ECMWF WANT TO SPLIT THE
ENERGY - AND HENCE RESULTING IN TWO HEAVIER PRECIP BULLS-EYES - WITH
ONE OVER THE SOURIS BASIN...AND ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE OTHER SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE FAVORING SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FINAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST INVOLVES A SECTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN...AND AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL.

A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (ESF) HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ALSO
ADDRESSES THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A VERY ACTIVE/WET PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

WILL NOTE 12Z MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION...TIMING/PLACEMENT/AMOUNTS...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING AS A MID LEVEL S/WV
IMPULSE EJECTS INTO CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE
VERY POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WE REMAIN IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DECREASING
CIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...ALONG WITH FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE REGION RESULTING
IN DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BASED ON THE
PROJECTED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL S/WV DEPICTED BY BOTH THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF...MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL THURS
NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. MODEL SPREADS RATHER HIGH IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH LEAD S/WV
IMPULSES DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO KEY IN ON AT THIS TIME. SOME
LOCATION DIFFERENCES AS WELL SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE TRACK OF
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.
LOOKS TO BE WET MOST LOCATIONS.

WE REMAIN IN A QUASI-ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WELL WITH A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND STRONG CAA ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG SURFACE LOW AND UNDERNEATH THE UPPER WAVE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO UPPER 70S AND MID 80S ON THURSDAY. A
SLIGHT MODERATION IN HIGHS FORECAST NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT BEYOND THAT TREND...SO THE
TIMING IN TAFS IS A BEST GUESS. THERE COULD BE MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE WILL BE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THOSE AREAS
OF THE STATE WHICH RECEIVE MULTIPLE PASSES OF HEAVY RAINS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD
OF OVERLAND AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

WHILE THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY
TO NEAR NORMAL THE PAST FEW WEEKS...SOME OF THE MODELS DEPICT
WIDESPREAD RAINS BETWEEN TWO AND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE SOURIS IN NORTH DAKOTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. AREAS THAT
RECEIVE AN INITIAL WETTING DURING THE EARLIER EVENT ARE MORE LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF DURING THE LATTER RAINS. SEVERAL
MISSOURI RIVER TRIBUTARIES WERE PARTICULARLY HARD HIT BY HEAVY RAINS
LAST WEEKEND, INCLUDING THE KNIFE AND HEART RIVERS ALONG WITH APPLE
CREEK. THESE RIVERS WILL STILL BE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS THE
NEXT FEW WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE STATE.

THE JAMES AND PIPESTEM CREEK BASINS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY
AFFECTED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH RAIN
TO KEEP THE SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...SCHECK
HYDROLOGY...AJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 200622
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
122 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND THE
FLOOD RISK. THE 00 UTC HIRES ARW AND WRF AND HRRR ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS TOO FAST WITH THE ONSET OF
CONVECTION. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A TREND TOWARD PUSHING CONVECTION
FURTHER NORTH...WHICH WOULD SPARE MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST FROM
HEAVIER AMOUNTS. DECISIONS WILL NEED TO BE MADE THIS MORNING
REGARDING ANY FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCHES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION LIFTING THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL. ALSO WEAK CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. MODELS DO SHOW AN INCREASING JET OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT IN AN AREA OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT. COULD POSSIBLY BE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT SO
EXTENDED SOME SLIGHT POPS EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND 25-35
KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR. ONE HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED FROM BOWMAN
INTO ADAMS COUNTY. THE SECOND IS STILL HOLDING TOGETHER OVER
CENTRAL SLOPE. WILL MAINTAIN OUR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. A FEW CELLS TRIED TO FIRE OVER THE NORTHWEST BUT WITH
LESS LUCK IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST BUT IS HAVING A HARD
TIME MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WILL HOLD OFF ON BRINGING ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE
FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE QUIET ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE PROBLEM IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER
UTAH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID 50S WEST AND IN THE 60S OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND APPROACHES
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. IN RESPONSE...THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD SO THAT BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY IT IS ALONG
THE MONTANA/DAKOTAS BORDER. SOME MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THE WEST...AND HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED/SMALL CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHORTLY AFTER/AT DAYBREAK THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT MORNING
HOURS. AROUND/AFTER NOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD AND NUMEROUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE IMPACTING ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH DECREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE NOT COMING TO A GOOD
CONSENSUS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE NAM
MODEL IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...WITH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (SOURIS
RIVER BASIN) TAKING THE BIGGEST HIT. THE GFS/ECMWF WANT TO SPLIT THE
ENERGY - AND HENCE RESULTING IN TWO HEAVIER PRECIP BULLS-EYES - WITH
ONE OVER THE SOURIS BASIN...AND ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE OTHER SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE FAVORING SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FINAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST INVOLVES A SECTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN...AND AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL.

A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (ESF) HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ALSO
ADDRESSES THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A VERY ACTIVE/WET PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

WILL NOTE 12Z MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION...TIMING/PLACEMENT/AMOUNTS...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING AS A MID LEVEL S/WV
IMPULSE EJECTS INTO CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE
VERY POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WE REMAIN IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DECREASING
CIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...ALONG WITH FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE REGION RESULTING
IN DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BASED ON THE
PROJECTED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL S/WV DEPICTED BY BOTH THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF...MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL THURS
NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. MODEL SPREADS RATHER HIGH IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH LEAD S/WV
IMPULSES DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO KEY IN ON AT THIS TIME. SOME
LOCATION DIFFERENCES AS WELL SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE TRACK OF
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.
LOOKS TO BE WET MOST LOCATIONS.

WE REMAIN IN A QUASI-ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WELL WITH A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND STRONG CAA ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG SURFACE LOW AND UNDERNEATH THE UPPER WAVE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO UPPER 70S AND MID 80S ON THURSDAY. A
SLIGHT MODERATION IN HIGHS FORECAST NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT BEYOND THAT TREND...SO THE
TIMING IN TAFS IS A BEST GUESS. THERE COULD BE MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE WILL BE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THOSE AREAS
OF THE STATE WHICH RECEIVE MULTIPLE PASSES OF HEAVY RAINS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD
OF OVERLAND AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

WHILE THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY
TO NEAR NORMAL THE PAST FEW WEEKS...SOME OF THE MODELS DEPICT
WIDESPREAD RAINS BETWEEN TWO AND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE SOURIS IN NORTH DAKOTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. AREAS THAT
RECEIVE AN INITIAL WETTING DURING THE EARLIER EVENT ARE MORE LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF DURING THE LATTER RAINS. SEVERAL
MISSOURI RIVER TRIBUTARIES WERE PARTICULARLY HARD HIT BY HEAVY RAINS
LAST WEEKEND, INCLUDING THE KNIFE AND HEART RIVERS ALONG WITH APPLE
CREEK. THESE RIVERS WILL STILL BE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS THE
NEXT FEW WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE STATE.

THE JAMES AND PIPESTEM CREEK BASINS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY
AFFECTED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH RAIN
TO KEEP THE SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...SCHECK
HYDROLOGY...AJS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 200446
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. NAM LOOKS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW
TOO FAR NORTH FOLLOWED BY GEM WITH FARTHER SOUTH GFS/ECMWF IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE LATER FOR FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT SURFACE AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST
SETTING UP WEAK RETURN FLOW. EASTERN FA WILL BE CLOSEST TO SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS AND WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND WILL
INCLUDE IN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY SO MINIMUMS SHOULD FOLLOW.

SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY TAKES SHAPE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY. MAIN LOW
WILL OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH DEVELOPING E-W WARM FRONT AND
THIS LIKELY TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AT PEAK
HEATING BOUNDARY DEPICTED BY MOST MODELS FROM E CENTRAL SD INTO S
MN WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF BOUNDARY. SO AT THIS POINT
BEST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. N-S ORIENTED
INVERTED TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WEST OF THE FA SO LEFT LOWER
POPS GOING ACROSS THE DVL BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER HOWEVER COLUMN WARM SO ANY BREAKS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES.

AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT T SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON HOW
FAR NORTH WARM FRONT WILL LIFT AND THIS WILL HAVE A BIG BEARING ON
WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. GFS/ECMWF FOCUS HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL FROM ND/SD/MN BORDER SOUTH AND EASTWARD WHILE GEM/NAM
FARTHER NORTH. SOUTHERN FA HAS SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL SO IF
SOUTHERN SOLUTION DOES PAN OUT MAY NEED SOME HEADLINES. WITH SPLIT
SOLUTIONS WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

RAIN WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTING SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER.

FA SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF THE DAY
FRIDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN HINGE
ON CLOUD COVER.

LONGWAVE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD WITH LONGWAVE RIDGE/TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND PATTERN SHIFTS
EAST THIS PERIOD. GFS IS FAST WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE AT 84 HOURS
COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. THEN THE GFS BECOMES SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED
FARTHER WEST/NORTHWEST WITH LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF.

THREW OUT POPS FROM THE GFS. REDUCE POPS IN NORTHERN 2/3 OF FORECAST
AREA FOR FRI NIGHT. INCREASED POPS EAST AND DECREASED POPS
NORTHWEST/WEST ON SAT NIGHT/SUN. DECREASED POPS IN THE SOUTH AND
INCREASED POPS NORTH ON MON.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER FOR SAT...A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER FOR SUN...NO CHANGE THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE EAST...BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR EVEN IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE ON WED...ALONG WITH VFR MID CLOUDS MOVING IN BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AFTER
00Z THU...AND HAVE STARTED TO MENTION SOME VCTS AT ALL
SITES...WITH TIMING STILL A BIT IN QUESTION.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 200446
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. NAM LOOKS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW
TOO FAR NORTH FOLLOWED BY GEM WITH FARTHER SOUTH GFS/ECMWF IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE LATER FOR FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT SURFACE AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST
SETTING UP WEAK RETURN FLOW. EASTERN FA WILL BE CLOSEST TO SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS AND WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND WILL
INCLUDE IN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY SO MINIMUMS SHOULD FOLLOW.

SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY TAKES SHAPE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY. MAIN LOW
WILL OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH DEVELOPING E-W WARM FRONT AND
THIS LIKELY TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AT PEAK
HEATING BOUNDARY DEPICTED BY MOST MODELS FROM E CENTRAL SD INTO S
MN WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF BOUNDARY. SO AT THIS POINT
BEST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. N-S ORIENTED
INVERTED TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WEST OF THE FA SO LEFT LOWER
POPS GOING ACROSS THE DVL BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER HOWEVER COLUMN WARM SO ANY BREAKS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES.

AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT T SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON HOW
FAR NORTH WARM FRONT WILL LIFT AND THIS WILL HAVE A BIG BEARING ON
WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. GFS/ECMWF FOCUS HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL FROM ND/SD/MN BORDER SOUTH AND EASTWARD WHILE GEM/NAM
FARTHER NORTH. SOUTHERN FA HAS SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL SO IF
SOUTHERN SOLUTION DOES PAN OUT MAY NEED SOME HEADLINES. WITH SPLIT
SOLUTIONS WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

RAIN WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTING SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER.

FA SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF THE DAY
FRIDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN HINGE
ON CLOUD COVER.

LONGWAVE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD WITH LONGWAVE RIDGE/TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND PATTERN SHIFTS
EAST THIS PERIOD. GFS IS FAST WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE AT 84 HOURS
COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. THEN THE GFS BECOMES SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED
FARTHER WEST/NORTHWEST WITH LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF.

THREW OUT POPS FROM THE GFS. REDUCE POPS IN NORTHERN 2/3 OF FORECAST
AREA FOR FRI NIGHT. INCREASED POPS EAST AND DECREASED POPS
NORTHWEST/WEST ON SAT NIGHT/SUN. DECREASED POPS IN THE SOUTH AND
INCREASED POPS NORTH ON MON.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER FOR SAT...A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER FOR SUN...NO CHANGE THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE EAST...BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR EVEN IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE ON WED...ALONG WITH VFR MID CLOUDS MOVING IN BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AFTER
00Z THU...AND HAVE STARTED TO MENTION SOME VCTS AT ALL
SITES...WITH TIMING STILL A BIT IN QUESTION.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 200253
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
953 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION LIFTING THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL. ALSO WEAK CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. MODELS DO SHOW AN INCREASING JET OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT IN AN AREA OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT. COULD POSSIBLY BE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT SO
EXTENDED SOME SLIGHT POPS EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND 25-35
KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR. ONE HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED FROM BOWMAN
INTO ADAMS COUNTY. THE SECOND IS STILL HOLDING TOGETHER OVER
CENTRAL SLOPE. WILL MAINTAIN OUR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. A FEW CELLS TRIED TO FIRE OVER THE NORTHWEST BUT WITH
LESS LUCK IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST BUT IS HAVING A HARD
TIME MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WILL HOLD OFF ON BRINGING ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE
FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE QUIET ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE PROBLEM IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER
UTAH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID 50S WEST AND IN THE 60S OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND APPROACHES
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. IN RESPONSE...THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD SO THAT BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY IT IS ALONG
THE MONTANA/DAKOTAS BORDER. SOME MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THE WEST...AND HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED/SMALL CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHORTLY AFTER/AT DAYBREAK THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT MORNING
HOURS. AROUND/AFTER NOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD AND NUMEROUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE IMPACTING ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH DECREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE NOT COMING TO A GOOD
CONSENSUS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE NAM
MODEL IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...WITH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (SOURIS
RIVER BASIN) TAKING THE BIGGEST HIT. THE GFS/ECMWF WANT TO SPLIT THE
ENERGY - AND HENCE RESULTING IN TWO HEAVIER PRECIP BULLSEYES - WITH
ONE OVER THE SOURIS BASIN...AND ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE OTHER SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE FAVORING SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FINAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST INVOLVES A SECTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN...AND AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL.

A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (ESF) HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ALSO
ADDRESSES THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A VERY ACTIVE/WET PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

WILL NOTE 12Z MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION...TIMING/PLACEMENT/AMOUNTS...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING AS A MID LEVEL S/WV
IMPULSE EJECTS INTO CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE
VERY POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WE REMAIN IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DECREASING
CIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...ALONG WITH FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE REGION RESULTING
IN DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BASED ON THE
PROJECTED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL S/WV DEPICTED BY BOTH THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF...MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL THURS
NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. MODEL SPREADS RATHER HIGH IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH LEAD S/WV
IMPULSES DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO KEY IN ON AT THIS TIME. SOME
LOCATION DIFFERENCES AS WELL SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE TRACK OF
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.
LOOKS TO BE WET MOST LOCATIONS.

WE REMAIN IN A QUASI-ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WELL WITH A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND STRONG CAA ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG SURFACE LOW AND UNDERNEATH THE UPPER WAVE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO UPPER 70S AND MID 80S ON THURSDAY. A
SLIGHT MODERATION IN HIGHS FORECAST NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BROUGHT SHOWERS INTO KDIK AROUND 14
UTC AND KISN-KBIS AROUND 18 UTC WEDNESDAY...WITH A MENTION OF
THUNDER AT EACH SITE IN THE AFTERNOON. HELD OFF PRECIPITATION AT
KMOT AND KJMS UNTIL AROUND 21 UTC. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY UNTIL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE WILL BE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THOSE AREAS
OF THE STATE WHICH RECEIVE MULTIPLE PASSES OF HEAVY RAINS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD
OF OVERLAND AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

WHILE THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY
TO NEAR NORMAL THE PAST FEW WEEKS...SOME OF THE MODELS DEPICT
WIDESPREAD RAINS BETWEEN TWO AND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE SOURIS IN NORTH DAKOTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. AREAS THAT
RECEIVE AN INITIAL WETTING DURING THE EARLIER EVENT ARE MORE LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF DURING THE LATTER RAINS. SEVERAL
MISSOURI RIVER TRIBUTARIES WERE PARTICULARLY HARD HIT BY HEAVY RAINS
LAST WEEKEND, INCLUDING THE KNIFE AND HEART RIVERS ALONG WITH APPLE
CREEK. THESE RIVERS WILL STILL BE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS THE
NEXT FEW WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE STATE.

THE JAMES AND PIPESTEM CREEK BASINS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY
AFFECTED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH RAIN
TO KEEP THE SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH
HYDROLOGY...AJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 200253
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
953 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION LIFTING THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL. ALSO WEAK CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. MODELS DO SHOW AN INCREASING JET OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT IN AN AREA OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT. COULD POSSIBLY BE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT SO
EXTENDED SOME SLIGHT POPS EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND 25-35
KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR. ONE HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED FROM BOWMAN
INTO ADAMS COUNTY. THE SECOND IS STILL HOLDING TOGETHER OVER
CENTRAL SLOPE. WILL MAINTAIN OUR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. A FEW CELLS TRIED TO FIRE OVER THE NORTHWEST BUT WITH
LESS LUCK IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST BUT IS HAVING A HARD
TIME MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WILL HOLD OFF ON BRINGING ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE
FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE QUIET ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE PROBLEM IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER
UTAH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID 50S WEST AND IN THE 60S OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND APPROACHES
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. IN RESPONSE...THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD SO THAT BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY IT IS ALONG
THE MONTANA/DAKOTAS BORDER. SOME MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THE WEST...AND HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED/SMALL CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHORTLY AFTER/AT DAYBREAK THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT MORNING
HOURS. AROUND/AFTER NOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD AND NUMEROUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE IMPACTING ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH DECREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE NOT COMING TO A GOOD
CONSENSUS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE NAM
MODEL IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...WITH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (SOURIS
RIVER BASIN) TAKING THE BIGGEST HIT. THE GFS/ECMWF WANT TO SPLIT THE
ENERGY - AND HENCE RESULTING IN TWO HEAVIER PRECIP BULLSEYES - WITH
ONE OVER THE SOURIS BASIN...AND ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE OTHER SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE FAVORING SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FINAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST INVOLVES A SECTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN...AND AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL.

A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (ESF) HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ALSO
ADDRESSES THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A VERY ACTIVE/WET PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

WILL NOTE 12Z MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION...TIMING/PLACEMENT/AMOUNTS...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING AS A MID LEVEL S/WV
IMPULSE EJECTS INTO CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE
VERY POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WE REMAIN IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DECREASING
CIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...ALONG WITH FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE REGION RESULTING
IN DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BASED ON THE
PROJECTED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL S/WV DEPICTED BY BOTH THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF...MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL THURS
NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. MODEL SPREADS RATHER HIGH IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH LEAD S/WV
IMPULSES DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO KEY IN ON AT THIS TIME. SOME
LOCATION DIFFERENCES AS WELL SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE TRACK OF
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.
LOOKS TO BE WET MOST LOCATIONS.

WE REMAIN IN A QUASI-ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WELL WITH A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND STRONG CAA ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG SURFACE LOW AND UNDERNEATH THE UPPER WAVE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO UPPER 70S AND MID 80S ON THURSDAY. A
SLIGHT MODERATION IN HIGHS FORECAST NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BROUGHT SHOWERS INTO KDIK AROUND 14
UTC AND KISN-KBIS AROUND 18 UTC WEDNESDAY...WITH A MENTION OF
THUNDER AT EACH SITE IN THE AFTERNOON. HELD OFF PRECIPITATION AT
KMOT AND KJMS UNTIL AROUND 21 UTC. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY UNTIL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE WILL BE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THOSE AREAS
OF THE STATE WHICH RECEIVE MULTIPLE PASSES OF HEAVY RAINS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD
OF OVERLAND AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

WHILE THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY
TO NEAR NORMAL THE PAST FEW WEEKS...SOME OF THE MODELS DEPICT
WIDESPREAD RAINS BETWEEN TWO AND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE SOURIS IN NORTH DAKOTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. AREAS THAT
RECEIVE AN INITIAL WETTING DURING THE EARLIER EVENT ARE MORE LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF DURING THE LATTER RAINS. SEVERAL
MISSOURI RIVER TRIBUTARIES WERE PARTICULARLY HARD HIT BY HEAVY RAINS
LAST WEEKEND, INCLUDING THE KNIFE AND HEART RIVERS ALONG WITH APPLE
CREEK. THESE RIVERS WILL STILL BE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS THE
NEXT FEW WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE STATE.

THE JAMES AND PIPESTEM CREEK BASINS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY
AFFECTED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH RAIN
TO KEEP THE SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH
HYDROLOGY...AJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 200253
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
953 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION LIFTING THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL. ALSO WEAK CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. MODELS DO SHOW AN INCREASING JET OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT IN AN AREA OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT. COULD POSSIBLY BE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT SO
EXTENDED SOME SLIGHT POPS EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND 25-35
KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR. ONE HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED FROM BOWMAN
INTO ADAMS COUNTY. THE SECOND IS STILL HOLDING TOGETHER OVER
CENTRAL SLOPE. WILL MAINTAIN OUR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. A FEW CELLS TRIED TO FIRE OVER THE NORTHWEST BUT WITH
LESS LUCK IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST BUT IS HAVING A HARD
TIME MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WILL HOLD OFF ON BRINGING ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE
FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE QUIET ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE PROBLEM IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER
UTAH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID 50S WEST AND IN THE 60S OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND APPROACHES
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. IN RESPONSE...THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD SO THAT BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY IT IS ALONG
THE MONTANA/DAKOTAS BORDER. SOME MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THE WEST...AND HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED/SMALL CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHORTLY AFTER/AT DAYBREAK THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT MORNING
HOURS. AROUND/AFTER NOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD AND NUMEROUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE IMPACTING ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH DECREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE NOT COMING TO A GOOD
CONSENSUS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE NAM
MODEL IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...WITH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (SOURIS
RIVER BASIN) TAKING THE BIGGEST HIT. THE GFS/ECMWF WANT TO SPLIT THE
ENERGY - AND HENCE RESULTING IN TWO HEAVIER PRECIP BULLSEYES - WITH
ONE OVER THE SOURIS BASIN...AND ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE OTHER SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE FAVORING SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FINAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST INVOLVES A SECTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN...AND AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL.

A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (ESF) HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ALSO
ADDRESSES THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A VERY ACTIVE/WET PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

WILL NOTE 12Z MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION...TIMING/PLACEMENT/AMOUNTS...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING AS A MID LEVEL S/WV
IMPULSE EJECTS INTO CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE
VERY POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WE REMAIN IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DECREASING
CIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...ALONG WITH FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE REGION RESULTING
IN DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BASED ON THE
PROJECTED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL S/WV DEPICTED BY BOTH THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF...MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL THURS
NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. MODEL SPREADS RATHER HIGH IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH LEAD S/WV
IMPULSES DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO KEY IN ON AT THIS TIME. SOME
LOCATION DIFFERENCES AS WELL SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE TRACK OF
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.
LOOKS TO BE WET MOST LOCATIONS.

WE REMAIN IN A QUASI-ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WELL WITH A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND STRONG CAA ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG SURFACE LOW AND UNDERNEATH THE UPPER WAVE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO UPPER 70S AND MID 80S ON THURSDAY. A
SLIGHT MODERATION IN HIGHS FORECAST NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BROUGHT SHOWERS INTO KDIK AROUND 14
UTC AND KISN-KBIS AROUND 18 UTC WEDNESDAY...WITH A MENTION OF
THUNDER AT EACH SITE IN THE AFTERNOON. HELD OFF PRECIPITATION AT
KMOT AND KJMS UNTIL AROUND 21 UTC. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY UNTIL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE WILL BE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THOSE AREAS
OF THE STATE WHICH RECEIVE MULTIPLE PASSES OF HEAVY RAINS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD
OF OVERLAND AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

WHILE THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY
TO NEAR NORMAL THE PAST FEW WEEKS...SOME OF THE MODELS DEPICT
WIDESPREAD RAINS BETWEEN TWO AND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE SOURIS IN NORTH DAKOTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. AREAS THAT
RECEIVE AN INITIAL WETTING DURING THE EARLIER EVENT ARE MORE LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF DURING THE LATTER RAINS. SEVERAL
MISSOURI RIVER TRIBUTARIES WERE PARTICULARLY HARD HIT BY HEAVY RAINS
LAST WEEKEND, INCLUDING THE KNIFE AND HEART RIVERS ALONG WITH APPLE
CREEK. THESE RIVERS WILL STILL BE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS THE
NEXT FEW WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE STATE.

THE JAMES AND PIPESTEM CREEK BASINS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY
AFFECTED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH RAIN
TO KEEP THE SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH
HYDROLOGY...AJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 200253
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
953 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION LIFTING THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL. ALSO WEAK CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. MODELS DO SHOW AN INCREASING JET OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT IN AN AREA OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT. COULD POSSIBLY BE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT SO
EXTENDED SOME SLIGHT POPS EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND 25-35
KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR. ONE HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED FROM BOWMAN
INTO ADAMS COUNTY. THE SECOND IS STILL HOLDING TOGETHER OVER
CENTRAL SLOPE. WILL MAINTAIN OUR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. A FEW CELLS TRIED TO FIRE OVER THE NORTHWEST BUT WITH
LESS LUCK IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST BUT IS HAVING A HARD
TIME MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WILL HOLD OFF ON BRINGING ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE
FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE QUIET ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE PROBLEM IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER
UTAH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID 50S WEST AND IN THE 60S OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND APPROACHES
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. IN RESPONSE...THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD SO THAT BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY IT IS ALONG
THE MONTANA/DAKOTAS BORDER. SOME MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THE WEST...AND HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED/SMALL CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHORTLY AFTER/AT DAYBREAK THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT MORNING
HOURS. AROUND/AFTER NOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD AND NUMEROUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE IMPACTING ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH DECREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE NOT COMING TO A GOOD
CONSENSUS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE NAM
MODEL IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...WITH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (SOURIS
RIVER BASIN) TAKING THE BIGGEST HIT. THE GFS/ECMWF WANT TO SPLIT THE
ENERGY - AND HENCE RESULTING IN TWO HEAVIER PRECIP BULLSEYES - WITH
ONE OVER THE SOURIS BASIN...AND ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE OTHER SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE FAVORING SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FINAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST INVOLVES A SECTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN...AND AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL.

A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (ESF) HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ALSO
ADDRESSES THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A VERY ACTIVE/WET PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

WILL NOTE 12Z MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION...TIMING/PLACEMENT/AMOUNTS...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING AS A MID LEVEL S/WV
IMPULSE EJECTS INTO CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE
VERY POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WE REMAIN IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DECREASING
CIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...ALONG WITH FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE REGION RESULTING
IN DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BASED ON THE
PROJECTED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL S/WV DEPICTED BY BOTH THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF...MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL THURS
NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. MODEL SPREADS RATHER HIGH IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH LEAD S/WV
IMPULSES DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO KEY IN ON AT THIS TIME. SOME
LOCATION DIFFERENCES AS WELL SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE TRACK OF
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.
LOOKS TO BE WET MOST LOCATIONS.

WE REMAIN IN A QUASI-ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WELL WITH A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND STRONG CAA ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG SURFACE LOW AND UNDERNEATH THE UPPER WAVE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO UPPER 70S AND MID 80S ON THURSDAY. A
SLIGHT MODERATION IN HIGHS FORECAST NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BROUGHT SHOWERS INTO KDIK AROUND 14
UTC AND KISN-KBIS AROUND 18 UTC WEDNESDAY...WITH A MENTION OF
THUNDER AT EACH SITE IN THE AFTERNOON. HELD OFF PRECIPITATION AT
KMOT AND KJMS UNTIL AROUND 21 UTC. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY UNTIL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE WILL BE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THOSE AREAS
OF THE STATE WHICH RECEIVE MULTIPLE PASSES OF HEAVY RAINS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD
OF OVERLAND AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

WHILE THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY
TO NEAR NORMAL THE PAST FEW WEEKS...SOME OF THE MODELS DEPICT
WIDESPREAD RAINS BETWEEN TWO AND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE SOURIS IN NORTH DAKOTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. AREAS THAT
RECEIVE AN INITIAL WETTING DURING THE EARLIER EVENT ARE MORE LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF DURING THE LATTER RAINS. SEVERAL
MISSOURI RIVER TRIBUTARIES WERE PARTICULARLY HARD HIT BY HEAVY RAINS
LAST WEEKEND, INCLUDING THE KNIFE AND HEART RIVERS ALONG WITH APPLE
CREEK. THESE RIVERS WILL STILL BE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS THE
NEXT FEW WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE STATE.

THE JAMES AND PIPESTEM CREEK BASINS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY
AFFECTED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH RAIN
TO KEEP THE SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH
HYDROLOGY...AJS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 200236
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
936 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WE WILL EXPAND THE PATCHY FOG MENTION INTO THE VALLEY AFTER
06Z...SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE LOW/MID 60S. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE JUST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE TOO MUCH WIDESPREAD FOG...BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE EAST
WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. NAM LOOKS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW
TOO FAR NORTH FOLLOWED BY GEM WITH FARTHER SOUTH GFS/ECMWF IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE LATER FOR FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT SURFACE AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST
SETTING UP WEAK RETURN FLOW. EASTERN FA WILL BE CLOSEST TO SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS AND WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND WILL
INCLUDE IN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY SO MINIMUMS SHOULD FOLLOW.

SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY TAKES SHAPE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY. MAIN LOW
WILL OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH DEVELOPING E-W WARM FRONT AND
THIS LIKELY TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AT PEAK
HEATING BOUNDARY DEPICTED BY MOST MODELS FROM E CENTRAL SD INTO S
MN WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF BOUNDARY. SO AT THIS POINT
BEST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. N-S ORIENTED
INVERTED TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WEST OF THE FA SO LEFT LOWER
POPS GOING ACROSS THE DVL BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER HOWEVER COLUMN WARM SO ANY BREAKS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES.

AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT T SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON HOW
FAR NORTH WARM FRONT WILL LIFT AND THIS WILL HAVE A BIG BEARING ON
WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. GFS/ECMWF FOCUS HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL FROM ND/SD/MN BORDER SOUTH AND EASTWARD WHILE GEM/NAM
FARTHER NORTH. SOUTHERN FA HAS SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL SO IF
SOUTHERN SOLUTION DOES PAN OUT MAY NEED SOME HEADLINES. WITH SPLIT
SOLUTIONS WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

RAIN WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTING SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER.

FA SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF THE DAY
FRIDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN HINGE
ON CLOUD COVER.

LONGWAVE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD WITH LONGWAVE RIDGE/TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND PATTERN SHIFTS
EAST THIS PERIOD. GFS IS FAST WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE AT 84 HOURS
COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. THEN THE GFS BECOMES SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED
FARTHER WEST/NORTHWEST WITH LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF.

THREW OUT POPS FROM THE GFS. REDUCE POPS IN NORTHERN 2/3 OF FORECAST
AREA FOR FRI NIGHT. INCREASED POPS EAST AND DECREASED POPS
NORTHWEST/WEST ON SAT NIGHT/SUN. DECREASED POPS IN THE SOUTH AND
INCREASED POPS NORTH ON MON.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER FOR SAT...A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER FOR SUN...NO CHANGE THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT
MAINLY IN THE EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY...AND COULD GUST TO NEAR 20KT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 200236
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
936 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WE WILL EXPAND THE PATCHY FOG MENTION INTO THE VALLEY AFTER
06Z...SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE LOW/MID 60S. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE JUST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE TOO MUCH WIDESPREAD FOG...BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE EAST
WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. NAM LOOKS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW
TOO FAR NORTH FOLLOWED BY GEM WITH FARTHER SOUTH GFS/ECMWF IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE LATER FOR FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT SURFACE AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST
SETTING UP WEAK RETURN FLOW. EASTERN FA WILL BE CLOSEST TO SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS AND WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND WILL
INCLUDE IN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY SO MINIMUMS SHOULD FOLLOW.

SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY TAKES SHAPE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY. MAIN LOW
WILL OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH DEVELOPING E-W WARM FRONT AND
THIS LIKELY TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AT PEAK
HEATING BOUNDARY DEPICTED BY MOST MODELS FROM E CENTRAL SD INTO S
MN WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF BOUNDARY. SO AT THIS POINT
BEST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. N-S ORIENTED
INVERTED TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WEST OF THE FA SO LEFT LOWER
POPS GOING ACROSS THE DVL BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER HOWEVER COLUMN WARM SO ANY BREAKS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES.

AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT T SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON HOW
FAR NORTH WARM FRONT WILL LIFT AND THIS WILL HAVE A BIG BEARING ON
WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. GFS/ECMWF FOCUS HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL FROM ND/SD/MN BORDER SOUTH AND EASTWARD WHILE GEM/NAM
FARTHER NORTH. SOUTHERN FA HAS SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL SO IF
SOUTHERN SOLUTION DOES PAN OUT MAY NEED SOME HEADLINES. WITH SPLIT
SOLUTIONS WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

RAIN WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTING SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER.

FA SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF THE DAY
FRIDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN HINGE
ON CLOUD COVER.

LONGWAVE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD WITH LONGWAVE RIDGE/TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND PATTERN SHIFTS
EAST THIS PERIOD. GFS IS FAST WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE AT 84 HOURS
COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. THEN THE GFS BECOMES SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED
FARTHER WEST/NORTHWEST WITH LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF.

THREW OUT POPS FROM THE GFS. REDUCE POPS IN NORTHERN 2/3 OF FORECAST
AREA FOR FRI NIGHT. INCREASED POPS EAST AND DECREASED POPS
NORTHWEST/WEST ON SAT NIGHT/SUN. DECREASED POPS IN THE SOUTH AND
INCREASED POPS NORTH ON MON.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER FOR SAT...A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER FOR SUN...NO CHANGE THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT
MAINLY IN THE EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY...AND COULD GUST TO NEAR 20KT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 200236
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
936 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WE WILL EXPAND THE PATCHY FOG MENTION INTO THE VALLEY AFTER
06Z...SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE LOW/MID 60S. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE JUST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE TOO MUCH WIDESPREAD FOG...BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE EAST
WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. NAM LOOKS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW
TOO FAR NORTH FOLLOWED BY GEM WITH FARTHER SOUTH GFS/ECMWF IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE LATER FOR FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT SURFACE AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST
SETTING UP WEAK RETURN FLOW. EASTERN FA WILL BE CLOSEST TO SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS AND WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND WILL
INCLUDE IN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY SO MINIMUMS SHOULD FOLLOW.

SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY TAKES SHAPE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY. MAIN LOW
WILL OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH DEVELOPING E-W WARM FRONT AND
THIS LIKELY TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AT PEAK
HEATING BOUNDARY DEPICTED BY MOST MODELS FROM E CENTRAL SD INTO S
MN WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF BOUNDARY. SO AT THIS POINT
BEST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. N-S ORIENTED
INVERTED TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WEST OF THE FA SO LEFT LOWER
POPS GOING ACROSS THE DVL BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER HOWEVER COLUMN WARM SO ANY BREAKS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES.

AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT T SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON HOW
FAR NORTH WARM FRONT WILL LIFT AND THIS WILL HAVE A BIG BEARING ON
WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. GFS/ECMWF FOCUS HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL FROM ND/SD/MN BORDER SOUTH AND EASTWARD WHILE GEM/NAM
FARTHER NORTH. SOUTHERN FA HAS SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL SO IF
SOUTHERN SOLUTION DOES PAN OUT MAY NEED SOME HEADLINES. WITH SPLIT
SOLUTIONS WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

RAIN WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTING SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER.

FA SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF THE DAY
FRIDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN HINGE
ON CLOUD COVER.

LONGWAVE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD WITH LONGWAVE RIDGE/TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND PATTERN SHIFTS
EAST THIS PERIOD. GFS IS FAST WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE AT 84 HOURS
COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. THEN THE GFS BECOMES SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED
FARTHER WEST/NORTHWEST WITH LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF.

THREW OUT POPS FROM THE GFS. REDUCE POPS IN NORTHERN 2/3 OF FORECAST
AREA FOR FRI NIGHT. INCREASED POPS EAST AND DECREASED POPS
NORTHWEST/WEST ON SAT NIGHT/SUN. DECREASED POPS IN THE SOUTH AND
INCREASED POPS NORTH ON MON.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER FOR SAT...A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER FOR SUN...NO CHANGE THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT
MAINLY IN THE EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY...AND COULD GUST TO NEAR 20KT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 200236
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
936 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WE WILL EXPAND THE PATCHY FOG MENTION INTO THE VALLEY AFTER
06Z...SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE LOW/MID 60S. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE JUST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE TOO MUCH WIDESPREAD FOG...BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE EAST
WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. NAM LOOKS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW
TOO FAR NORTH FOLLOWED BY GEM WITH FARTHER SOUTH GFS/ECMWF IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE LATER FOR FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT SURFACE AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST
SETTING UP WEAK RETURN FLOW. EASTERN FA WILL BE CLOSEST TO SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS AND WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND WILL
INCLUDE IN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY SO MINIMUMS SHOULD FOLLOW.

SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY TAKES SHAPE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY. MAIN LOW
WILL OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH DEVELOPING E-W WARM FRONT AND
THIS LIKELY TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AT PEAK
HEATING BOUNDARY DEPICTED BY MOST MODELS FROM E CENTRAL SD INTO S
MN WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF BOUNDARY. SO AT THIS POINT
BEST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. N-S ORIENTED
INVERTED TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WEST OF THE FA SO LEFT LOWER
POPS GOING ACROSS THE DVL BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER HOWEVER COLUMN WARM SO ANY BREAKS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES.

AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT T SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON HOW
FAR NORTH WARM FRONT WILL LIFT AND THIS WILL HAVE A BIG BEARING ON
WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. GFS/ECMWF FOCUS HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL FROM ND/SD/MN BORDER SOUTH AND EASTWARD WHILE GEM/NAM
FARTHER NORTH. SOUTHERN FA HAS SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL SO IF
SOUTHERN SOLUTION DOES PAN OUT MAY NEED SOME HEADLINES. WITH SPLIT
SOLUTIONS WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

RAIN WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTING SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER.

FA SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF THE DAY
FRIDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN HINGE
ON CLOUD COVER.

LONGWAVE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD WITH LONGWAVE RIDGE/TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND PATTERN SHIFTS
EAST THIS PERIOD. GFS IS FAST WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE AT 84 HOURS
COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. THEN THE GFS BECOMES SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED
FARTHER WEST/NORTHWEST WITH LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF.

THREW OUT POPS FROM THE GFS. REDUCE POPS IN NORTHERN 2/3 OF FORECAST
AREA FOR FRI NIGHT. INCREASED POPS EAST AND DECREASED POPS
NORTHWEST/WEST ON SAT NIGHT/SUN. DECREASED POPS IN THE SOUTH AND
INCREASED POPS NORTH ON MON.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER FOR SAT...A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER FOR SUN...NO CHANGE THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT
MAINLY IN THE EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY...AND COULD GUST TO NEAR 20KT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 192340
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
640 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND 25-35
KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR. ONE HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED FROM BOWMAN
INTO ADAMS COUNTY. THE SECOND IS STILL HOLDING TOGETHER OVER
CENTRAL SLOPE. WILL MAINTAIN OUR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. A FEW CELLS TRIED TO FIRE OVER THE NORTHWEST BUT WITH
LESS LUCK IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST BUT IS HAVING A HARD
TIME MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WILL HOLD OFF ON BRINGING ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE
FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE QUIET ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE PROBLEM IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER
UTAH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID 50S WEST AND IN THE 60S OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND APPROACHES
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. IN RESPONSE...THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD SO THAT BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY IT IS ALONG
THE MONTANA/DAKOTAS BORDER. SOME MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THE WEST...AND HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED/SMALL CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHORTLY AFTER/AT DAYBREAK THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT MORNING
HOURS. AROUND/AFTER NOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD AND NUMEROUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE IMPACTING ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH DECREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE NOT COMING TO A GOOD
CONSENSUS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE NAM
MODEL IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...WITH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (SOURIS
RIVER BASIN) TAKING THE BIGGEST HIT. THE GFS/ECMWF WANT TO SPLIT THE
ENERGY - AND HENCE RESULTING IN TWO HEAVIER PRECIP BULLSEYES - WITH
ONE OVER THE SOURIS BASIN...AND ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE OTHER SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE FAVORING SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FINAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST INVOLVES A SECTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN...AND AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL.

A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (ESF) HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ALSO
ADDRESSES THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A VERY ACTIVE/WET PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

WILL NOTE 12Z MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION...TIMING/PLACEMENT/AMOUNTS...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING AS A MID LEVEL S/WV
IMPULSE EJECTS INTO CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE
VERY POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WE REMAIN IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DECREASING
CIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...ALONG WITH FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE REGION RESULTING
IN DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BASED ON THE
PROJECTED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL S/WV DEPICTED BY BOTH THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF...MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL THURS
NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. MODEL SPREADS RATHER HIGH IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH LEAD S/WV
IMPULSES DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO KEY IN ON AT THIS TIME. SOME
LOCATION DIFFERENCES AS WELL SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE TRACK OF
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.
LOOKS TO BE WET MOST LOCATIONS.

WE REMAIN IN A QUASI-ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WELL WITH A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND STRONG CAA ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG SURFACE LOW AND UNDERNEATH THE UPPER WAVE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO UPPER 70S AND MID 80S ON THURSDAY. A
SLIGHT MODERATION IN HIGHS FORECAST NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BROUGHT SHOWERS INTO KDIK AROUND 14
UTC AND KISN-KBIS AROUND 18 UTC WEDNESDAY...WITH A MENTION OF
THUNDER AT EACH SITE IN THE AFTERNOON. HELD OFF PRECIPITATION AT
KMOT AND KJMS UNTIL AROUND 21 UTC. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY UNTIL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE WILL BE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THOSE AREAS
OF THE STATE WHICH RECEIVE MULTIPLE PASSES OF HEAVY RAINS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD
OF OVERLAND AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

WHILE THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY
TO NEAR NORMAL THE PAST FEW WEEKS...SOME OF THE MODELS DEPICT
WIDESPREAD RAINS BETWEEN TWO AND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE SOURIS IN NORTH DAKOTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. AREAS THAT
RECEIVE AN INITIAL WETTING DURING THE EARLIER EVENT ARE MORE LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF DURING THE LATTER RAINS. SEVERAL
MISSOURI RIVER TRIBUTARIES WERE PARTICULARLY HARD HIT BY HEAVY RAINS
LAST WEEKEND, INCLUDING THE KNIFE AND HEART RIVERS ALONG WITH APPLE
CREEK. THESE RIVERS WILL STILL BE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS THE
NEXT FEW WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE STATE.

THE JAMES AND PIPESTEM CREEK BASINS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY
AFFECTED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH RAIN
TO KEEP THE SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH
HYDROLOGY...AJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 192340
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
640 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND 25-35
KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR. ONE HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED FROM BOWMAN
INTO ADAMS COUNTY. THE SECOND IS STILL HOLDING TOGETHER OVER
CENTRAL SLOPE. WILL MAINTAIN OUR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. A FEW CELLS TRIED TO FIRE OVER THE NORTHWEST BUT WITH
LESS LUCK IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST BUT IS HAVING A HARD
TIME MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WILL HOLD OFF ON BRINGING ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE
FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE QUIET ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE PROBLEM IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER
UTAH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID 50S WEST AND IN THE 60S OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND APPROACHES
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. IN RESPONSE...THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD SO THAT BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY IT IS ALONG
THE MONTANA/DAKOTAS BORDER. SOME MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THE WEST...AND HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED/SMALL CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHORTLY AFTER/AT DAYBREAK THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT MORNING
HOURS. AROUND/AFTER NOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD AND NUMEROUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE IMPACTING ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH DECREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE NOT COMING TO A GOOD
CONSENSUS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE NAM
MODEL IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...WITH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (SOURIS
RIVER BASIN) TAKING THE BIGGEST HIT. THE GFS/ECMWF WANT TO SPLIT THE
ENERGY - AND HENCE RESULTING IN TWO HEAVIER PRECIP BULLSEYES - WITH
ONE OVER THE SOURIS BASIN...AND ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE OTHER SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE FAVORING SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FINAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST INVOLVES A SECTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN...AND AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL.

A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (ESF) HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ALSO
ADDRESSES THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A VERY ACTIVE/WET PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

WILL NOTE 12Z MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION...TIMING/PLACEMENT/AMOUNTS...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING AS A MID LEVEL S/WV
IMPULSE EJECTS INTO CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE
VERY POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WE REMAIN IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DECREASING
CIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...ALONG WITH FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE REGION RESULTING
IN DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BASED ON THE
PROJECTED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL S/WV DEPICTED BY BOTH THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF...MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL THURS
NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. MODEL SPREADS RATHER HIGH IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH LEAD S/WV
IMPULSES DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO KEY IN ON AT THIS TIME. SOME
LOCATION DIFFERENCES AS WELL SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE TRACK OF
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.
LOOKS TO BE WET MOST LOCATIONS.

WE REMAIN IN A QUASI-ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WELL WITH A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND STRONG CAA ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG SURFACE LOW AND UNDERNEATH THE UPPER WAVE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO UPPER 70S AND MID 80S ON THURSDAY. A
SLIGHT MODERATION IN HIGHS FORECAST NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BROUGHT SHOWERS INTO KDIK AROUND 14
UTC AND KISN-KBIS AROUND 18 UTC WEDNESDAY...WITH A MENTION OF
THUNDER AT EACH SITE IN THE AFTERNOON. HELD OFF PRECIPITATION AT
KMOT AND KJMS UNTIL AROUND 21 UTC. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY UNTIL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE WILL BE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THOSE AREAS
OF THE STATE WHICH RECEIVE MULTIPLE PASSES OF HEAVY RAINS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD
OF OVERLAND AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

WHILE THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY
TO NEAR NORMAL THE PAST FEW WEEKS...SOME OF THE MODELS DEPICT
WIDESPREAD RAINS BETWEEN TWO AND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE SOURIS IN NORTH DAKOTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. AREAS THAT
RECEIVE AN INITIAL WETTING DURING THE EARLIER EVENT ARE MORE LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF DURING THE LATTER RAINS. SEVERAL
MISSOURI RIVER TRIBUTARIES WERE PARTICULARLY HARD HIT BY HEAVY RAINS
LAST WEEKEND, INCLUDING THE KNIFE AND HEART RIVERS ALONG WITH APPLE
CREEK. THESE RIVERS WILL STILL BE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS THE
NEXT FEW WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE STATE.

THE JAMES AND PIPESTEM CREEK BASINS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY
AFFECTED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH RAIN
TO KEEP THE SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH
HYDROLOGY...AJS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 192333
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
633 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. NAM LOOKS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW
TOO FAR NORTH FOLLOWED BY GEM WITH FARTHER SOUTH GFS/ECMWF IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE LATER FOR FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT SURFACE AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST
SETTING UP WEAK RETURN FLOW. EASTERN FA WILL BE CLOSEST TO SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS AND WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND WILL
INCLUDE IN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY SO MINIMUMS SHOULD FOLLOW.

SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY TAKES SHAPE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY. MAIN LOW
WILL OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH DEVELOPING E-W WARM FRONT AND
THIS LIKELY TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AT PEAK
HEATING BOUNDARY DEPICTED BY MOST MODELS FROM E CENTRAL SD INTO S
MN WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF BOUNDARY. SO AT THIS POINT
BEST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. N-S ORIENTED
INVERTED TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WEST OF THE FA SO LEFT LOWER
POPS GOING ACROSS THE DVL BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER HOWEVER COLUMN WARM SO ANY BREAKS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES.

AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT T SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON HOW
FAR NORTH WARM FRONT WILL LIFT AND THIS WILL HAVE A BIG BEARING ON
WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. GFS/ECMWF FOCUS HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL FROM ND/SD/MN BORDER SOUTH AND EASTWARD WHILE GEM/NAM
FARTHER NORTH. SOUTHERN FA HAS SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL SO IF
SOUTHERN SOLUTION DOES PAN OUT MAY NEED SOME HEADLINES. WITH SPLIT
SOLUTIONS WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

RAIN WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTING SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER.

FA SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF THE DAY
FRIDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN HINGE
ON CLOUD COVER.

LONGWAVE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD WITH LONGWAVE RIDGE/TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND PATTERN SHIFTS
EAST THIS PERIOD. GFS IS FAST WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE AT 84 HOURS
COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. THEN THE GFS BECOMES SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED
FARTHER WEST/NORTHWEST WITH LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF.

THREW OUT POPS FROM THE GFS. REDUCE POPS IN NORTHERN 2/3 OF FORECAST
AREA FOR FRI NIGHT. INCREASED POPS EAST AND DECREASED POPS
NORTHWEST/WEST ON SAT NIGHT/SUN. DECREASED POPS IN THE SOUTH AND
INCREASED POPS NORTH ON MON.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER FOR SAT...A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER FOR SUN...NO CHANGE THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT
MAINLY IN THE EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY...AND COULD GUST TO NEAR 20KT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 192333
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
633 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. NAM LOOKS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW
TOO FAR NORTH FOLLOWED BY GEM WITH FARTHER SOUTH GFS/ECMWF IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE LATER FOR FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT SURFACE AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST
SETTING UP WEAK RETURN FLOW. EASTERN FA WILL BE CLOSEST TO SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS AND WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND WILL
INCLUDE IN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY SO MINIMUMS SHOULD FOLLOW.

SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY TAKES SHAPE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY. MAIN LOW
WILL OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH DEVELOPING E-W WARM FRONT AND
THIS LIKELY TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AT PEAK
HEATING BOUNDARY DEPICTED BY MOST MODELS FROM E CENTRAL SD INTO S
MN WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF BOUNDARY. SO AT THIS POINT
BEST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. N-S ORIENTED
INVERTED TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WEST OF THE FA SO LEFT LOWER
POPS GOING ACROSS THE DVL BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER HOWEVER COLUMN WARM SO ANY BREAKS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES.

AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT T SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON HOW
FAR NORTH WARM FRONT WILL LIFT AND THIS WILL HAVE A BIG BEARING ON
WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. GFS/ECMWF FOCUS HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL FROM ND/SD/MN BORDER SOUTH AND EASTWARD WHILE GEM/NAM
FARTHER NORTH. SOUTHERN FA HAS SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL SO IF
SOUTHERN SOLUTION DOES PAN OUT MAY NEED SOME HEADLINES. WITH SPLIT
SOLUTIONS WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

RAIN WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTING SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER.

FA SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF THE DAY
FRIDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN HINGE
ON CLOUD COVER.

LONGWAVE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD WITH LONGWAVE RIDGE/TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND PATTERN SHIFTS
EAST THIS PERIOD. GFS IS FAST WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE AT 84 HOURS
COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. THEN THE GFS BECOMES SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED
FARTHER WEST/NORTHWEST WITH LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF.

THREW OUT POPS FROM THE GFS. REDUCE POPS IN NORTHERN 2/3 OF FORECAST
AREA FOR FRI NIGHT. INCREASED POPS EAST AND DECREASED POPS
NORTHWEST/WEST ON SAT NIGHT/SUN. DECREASED POPS IN THE SOUTH AND
INCREASED POPS NORTH ON MON.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER FOR SAT...A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER FOR SUN...NO CHANGE THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT
MAINLY IN THE EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY...AND COULD GUST TO NEAR 20KT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 192333
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
633 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. NAM LOOKS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW
TOO FAR NORTH FOLLOWED BY GEM WITH FARTHER SOUTH GFS/ECMWF IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE LATER FOR FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT SURFACE AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST
SETTING UP WEAK RETURN FLOW. EASTERN FA WILL BE CLOSEST TO SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS AND WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND WILL
INCLUDE IN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY SO MINIMUMS SHOULD FOLLOW.

SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY TAKES SHAPE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY. MAIN LOW
WILL OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH DEVELOPING E-W WARM FRONT AND
THIS LIKELY TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AT PEAK
HEATING BOUNDARY DEPICTED BY MOST MODELS FROM E CENTRAL SD INTO S
MN WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF BOUNDARY. SO AT THIS POINT
BEST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. N-S ORIENTED
INVERTED TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WEST OF THE FA SO LEFT LOWER
POPS GOING ACROSS THE DVL BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER HOWEVER COLUMN WARM SO ANY BREAKS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES.

AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT T SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON HOW
FAR NORTH WARM FRONT WILL LIFT AND THIS WILL HAVE A BIG BEARING ON
WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. GFS/ECMWF FOCUS HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL FROM ND/SD/MN BORDER SOUTH AND EASTWARD WHILE GEM/NAM
FARTHER NORTH. SOUTHERN FA HAS SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL SO IF
SOUTHERN SOLUTION DOES PAN OUT MAY NEED SOME HEADLINES. WITH SPLIT
SOLUTIONS WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

RAIN WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTING SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER.

FA SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF THE DAY
FRIDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN HINGE
ON CLOUD COVER.

LONGWAVE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD WITH LONGWAVE RIDGE/TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND PATTERN SHIFTS
EAST THIS PERIOD. GFS IS FAST WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE AT 84 HOURS
COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. THEN THE GFS BECOMES SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED
FARTHER WEST/NORTHWEST WITH LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF.

THREW OUT POPS FROM THE GFS. REDUCE POPS IN NORTHERN 2/3 OF FORECAST
AREA FOR FRI NIGHT. INCREASED POPS EAST AND DECREASED POPS
NORTHWEST/WEST ON SAT NIGHT/SUN. DECREASED POPS IN THE SOUTH AND
INCREASED POPS NORTH ON MON.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER FOR SAT...A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER FOR SUN...NO CHANGE THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT
MAINLY IN THE EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY...AND COULD GUST TO NEAR 20KT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 192333
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
633 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. NAM LOOKS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW
TOO FAR NORTH FOLLOWED BY GEM WITH FARTHER SOUTH GFS/ECMWF IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE LATER FOR FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT SURFACE AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST
SETTING UP WEAK RETURN FLOW. EASTERN FA WILL BE CLOSEST TO SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS AND WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND WILL
INCLUDE IN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY SO MINIMUMS SHOULD FOLLOW.

SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY TAKES SHAPE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY. MAIN LOW
WILL OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH DEVELOPING E-W WARM FRONT AND
THIS LIKELY TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AT PEAK
HEATING BOUNDARY DEPICTED BY MOST MODELS FROM E CENTRAL SD INTO S
MN WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF BOUNDARY. SO AT THIS POINT
BEST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. N-S ORIENTED
INVERTED TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WEST OF THE FA SO LEFT LOWER
POPS GOING ACROSS THE DVL BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER HOWEVER COLUMN WARM SO ANY BREAKS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES.

AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT T SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON HOW
FAR NORTH WARM FRONT WILL LIFT AND THIS WILL HAVE A BIG BEARING ON
WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. GFS/ECMWF FOCUS HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL FROM ND/SD/MN BORDER SOUTH AND EASTWARD WHILE GEM/NAM
FARTHER NORTH. SOUTHERN FA HAS SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL SO IF
SOUTHERN SOLUTION DOES PAN OUT MAY NEED SOME HEADLINES. WITH SPLIT
SOLUTIONS WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

RAIN WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTING SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER.

FA SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF THE DAY
FRIDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN HINGE
ON CLOUD COVER.

LONGWAVE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD WITH LONGWAVE RIDGE/TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND PATTERN SHIFTS
EAST THIS PERIOD. GFS IS FAST WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE AT 84 HOURS
COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. THEN THE GFS BECOMES SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED
FARTHER WEST/NORTHWEST WITH LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF.

THREW OUT POPS FROM THE GFS. REDUCE POPS IN NORTHERN 2/3 OF FORECAST
AREA FOR FRI NIGHT. INCREASED POPS EAST AND DECREASED POPS
NORTHWEST/WEST ON SAT NIGHT/SUN. DECREASED POPS IN THE SOUTH AND
INCREASED POPS NORTH ON MON.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER FOR SAT...A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER FOR SUN...NO CHANGE THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT
MAINLY IN THE EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY...AND COULD GUST TO NEAR 20KT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 192027
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. NAM LOOKS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW
TOO FAR NORTH FOLLOWED BY GEM WITH FARTHER SOUTH GFS/ECMWF IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE LATER FOR FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT SURFACE AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST
SETTING UP WEAK RETURN FLOW. EASTERN FA WILL BE CLOSEST TO SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS AND WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND WILL
INCLUDE IN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY SO MINIMUMS SHOULD FOLLOW.

SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY TAKES SHAPE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY. MAIN LOW
WILL OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH DEVELOPING E-W WARM FRONT AND
THIS LIKELY TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AT PEAK
HEATING BOUNDARY DEPICTED BY MOST MODELS FROM E CENTRAL SD INTO S
MN WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF BOUNDARY. SO AT THIS POINT
BEST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. N-S ORIENTED
INVERTED TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WEST OF THE FA SO LEFT LOWER
POPS GOING ACROSS THE DVL BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER HOWEVER COLUMN WARM SO ANY BREAKS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES.

AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT T SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON HOW
FAR NORTH WARM FRONT WILL LIFT AND THIS WILL HAVE A BIG BEARING ON
WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. GFS/ECMWF FOCUS HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL FROM ND/SD/MN BORDER SOUTH AND EASTWARD WHILE GEM/NAM
FARTHER NORTH. SOUTHERN FA HAS SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL SO IF
SOUTHERN SOLUTION DOES PAN OUT MAY NEED SOME HEADLINES. WITH SPLIT
SOLUTIONS WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

RAIN WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTING SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER.

FA SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF THE DAY
FRIDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN HINGE
ON CLOUD COVER.

LONGWAVE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD WITH LONGWAVE RIDGE/TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND PATTERN SHIFTS
EAST THIS PERIOD. GFS IS FAST WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE AT 84 HOURS
COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. THEN THE GFS BECOMES SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED
FARTHER WEST/NORTHWEST WITH LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF.

THREW OUT POPS FROM THE GFS. REDUCE POPS IN NORTHERN 2/3 OF FORECAST
AREA FOR FRI NIGHT. INCREASED POPS EAST AND DECREASED POPS
NORTHWEST/WEST ON SAT NIGHT/SUN. DECREASED POPS IN THE SOUTH AND
INCREASED POPS NORTH ON MON.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER FOR SAT...A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER FOR SUN...NO CHANGE THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED MORE SOLID DECK OF CLOUDS OVER
EASTERN ZONES OR EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR ROX TO WADENA MN.
ELSEWHERE SCATTERED CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
3 OR 4 THOUSAND FT. CIGS IN THE FAR EAST WERE MOSTLY VFR/MVFR
BETWEEN 16 AND 31 HUNDRED FT. EXPECT THE FAR EAST TO REMAIN IN
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 3 TO 4
THOUSAND FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP NEAR SUNSET
IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AND CLEAR OFF ELSEWHERE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 192027
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. NAM LOOKS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW
TOO FAR NORTH FOLLOWED BY GEM WITH FARTHER SOUTH GFS/ECMWF IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE LATER FOR FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT SURFACE AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST
SETTING UP WEAK RETURN FLOW. EASTERN FA WILL BE CLOSEST TO SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS AND WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND WILL
INCLUDE IN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY SO MINIMUMS SHOULD FOLLOW.

SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY TAKES SHAPE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY. MAIN LOW
WILL OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH DEVELOPING E-W WARM FRONT AND
THIS LIKELY TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AT PEAK
HEATING BOUNDARY DEPICTED BY MOST MODELS FROM E CENTRAL SD INTO S
MN WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF BOUNDARY. SO AT THIS POINT
BEST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. N-S ORIENTED
INVERTED TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WEST OF THE FA SO LEFT LOWER
POPS GOING ACROSS THE DVL BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER HOWEVER COLUMN WARM SO ANY BREAKS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES.

AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT T SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON HOW
FAR NORTH WARM FRONT WILL LIFT AND THIS WILL HAVE A BIG BEARING ON
WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. GFS/ECMWF FOCUS HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL FROM ND/SD/MN BORDER SOUTH AND EASTWARD WHILE GEM/NAM
FARTHER NORTH. SOUTHERN FA HAS SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL SO IF
SOUTHERN SOLUTION DOES PAN OUT MAY NEED SOME HEADLINES. WITH SPLIT
SOLUTIONS WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

RAIN WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTING SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER.

FA SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF THE DAY
FRIDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN HINGE
ON CLOUD COVER.

LONGWAVE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD WITH LONGWAVE RIDGE/TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND PATTERN SHIFTS
EAST THIS PERIOD. GFS IS FAST WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE AT 84 HOURS
COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. THEN THE GFS BECOMES SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED
FARTHER WEST/NORTHWEST WITH LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF.

THREW OUT POPS FROM THE GFS. REDUCE POPS IN NORTHERN 2/3 OF FORECAST
AREA FOR FRI NIGHT. INCREASED POPS EAST AND DECREASED POPS
NORTHWEST/WEST ON SAT NIGHT/SUN. DECREASED POPS IN THE SOUTH AND
INCREASED POPS NORTH ON MON.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER FOR SAT...A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER FOR SUN...NO CHANGE THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED MORE SOLID DECK OF CLOUDS OVER
EASTERN ZONES OR EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR ROX TO WADENA MN.
ELSEWHERE SCATTERED CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
3 OR 4 THOUSAND FT. CIGS IN THE FAR EAST WERE MOSTLY VFR/MVFR
BETWEEN 16 AND 31 HUNDRED FT. EXPECT THE FAR EAST TO REMAIN IN
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 3 TO 4
THOUSAND FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP NEAR SUNSET
IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AND CLEAR OFF ELSEWHERE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 192027
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE PROBLEM IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER
UTAH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID 50S WEST AND IN THE 60S OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND APPROACHES
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. IN RESPONSE...THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD SO THAT BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY IT IS ALONG
THE MONTANA/DAKOTAS BORDER. SOME MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THE WEST...AND HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED/SMALL CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHORTLY AFTER/AT DAYBREAK THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT MORNING
HOURS. AROUND/AFTER NOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD AND NUMEROUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE IMPACTING ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH DECREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE NOT COMING TO A GOOD
CONSENSUS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE NAM
MODEL IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...WITH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (SOURIS
RIVER BASIN) TAKING THE BIGGEST HIT. THE GFS/ECMWF WANT TO SPLIT THE
ENERGY - AND HENCE RESULTING IN TWO HEAVIER PRECIP BULLSEYES - WITH
ONE OVER THE SOURIS BASIN...AND ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE OTHER SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE FAVORING SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FINAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST INVOLVES A SECTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN...AND AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL.

A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (ESF) HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ALSO
ADDRESSES THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A VERY ACTIVE/WET PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

WILL NOTE 12Z MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION...TIMING/PLACEMENT/AMOUNTS...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING AS A MID LEVEL S/WV
IMPULSE EJECTS INTO CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE
VERY POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WE REMAIN IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DECREASING
CIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...ALONG WITH FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE REGION RESULTING
IN DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BASED ON THE
PROJECTED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL S/WV DEPICTED BY BOTH THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF...MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL THURS
NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. MODEL SPREADS RATHER HIGH IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH LEAD S/WV
IMPULSES DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO KEY IN ON AT THIS TIME. SOME
LOCATION DIFFERENCES AS WELL SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE TRACK OF
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.
LOOKS TO BE WET MOST LOCATIONS.

WE REMAIN IN A QUASI-ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WELL WITH A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND STRONG CAA ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG SURFACE LOW AND UNDERNEATH THE UPPER WAVE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO UPPER 70S AND MID 80S ON THURSDAY. A
SLIGHT MODERATION IN HIGHS FORECAST NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.


&&


.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z AT KISN/KDIK...BUT ADDED MENTION OF VCTS
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY WHEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE WILL BE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THOSE AREAS
OF THE STATE WHICH RECEIVE MULTIPLE PASSES OF HEAVY RAINS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD
OF OVERLAND AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

WHILE THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY
TO NEAR NORMAL THE PAST FEW WEEKS...SOME OF THE MODELS DEPICT
WIDESPREAD RAINS BETWEEN TWO AND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE SOURIS IN NORTH DAKOTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. AREAS THAT
RECEIVE AN INITIAL WETTING DURING THE EARLIER EVENT ARE MORE LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF DURING THE LATTER RAINS. SEVERAL
MISSOURI RIVER TRIBUTARIES WERE PARTICULARLY HARD HIT BY HEAVY RAINS
LAST WEEKEND, INCLUDING THE KNIFE AND HEART RIVERS ALONG WITH APPLE
CREEK. THESE RIVERS WILL STILL BE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS THE
NEXT FEW WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE STATE.

THE JAMES AND PIPESTEM CREEK BASINS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY
AFFECTED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH RAIN
TO KEEP THE SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV
HYDROLOGY...AJS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 192027
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE PROBLEM IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER
UTAH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID 50S WEST AND IN THE 60S OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND APPROACHES
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. IN RESPONSE...THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD SO THAT BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY IT IS ALONG
THE MONTANA/DAKOTAS BORDER. SOME MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THE WEST...AND HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED/SMALL CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHORTLY AFTER/AT DAYBREAK THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT MORNING
HOURS. AROUND/AFTER NOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD AND NUMEROUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE IMPACTING ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH DECREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE NOT COMING TO A GOOD
CONSENSUS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE NAM
MODEL IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...WITH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (SOURIS
RIVER BASIN) TAKING THE BIGGEST HIT. THE GFS/ECMWF WANT TO SPLIT THE
ENERGY - AND HENCE RESULTING IN TWO HEAVIER PRECIP BULLSEYES - WITH
ONE OVER THE SOURIS BASIN...AND ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE OTHER SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE FAVORING SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FINAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST INVOLVES A SECTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN...AND AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL.

A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (ESF) HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ALSO
ADDRESSES THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A VERY ACTIVE/WET PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

WILL NOTE 12Z MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION...TIMING/PLACEMENT/AMOUNTS...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING AS A MID LEVEL S/WV
IMPULSE EJECTS INTO CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE
VERY POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WE REMAIN IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DECREASING
CIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...ALONG WITH FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE REGION RESULTING
IN DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BASED ON THE
PROJECTED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL S/WV DEPICTED BY BOTH THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF...MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL THURS
NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. MODEL SPREADS RATHER HIGH IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH LEAD S/WV
IMPULSES DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO KEY IN ON AT THIS TIME. SOME
LOCATION DIFFERENCES AS WELL SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE TRACK OF
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.
LOOKS TO BE WET MOST LOCATIONS.

WE REMAIN IN A QUASI-ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WELL WITH A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND STRONG CAA ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG SURFACE LOW AND UNDERNEATH THE UPPER WAVE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO UPPER 70S AND MID 80S ON THURSDAY. A
SLIGHT MODERATION IN HIGHS FORECAST NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.


&&


.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z AT KISN/KDIK...BUT ADDED MENTION OF VCTS
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY WHEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE WILL BE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THOSE AREAS
OF THE STATE WHICH RECEIVE MULTIPLE PASSES OF HEAVY RAINS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD
OF OVERLAND AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

WHILE THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY
TO NEAR NORMAL THE PAST FEW WEEKS...SOME OF THE MODELS DEPICT
WIDESPREAD RAINS BETWEEN TWO AND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE SOURIS IN NORTH DAKOTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. AREAS THAT
RECEIVE AN INITIAL WETTING DURING THE EARLIER EVENT ARE MORE LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF DURING THE LATTER RAINS. SEVERAL
MISSOURI RIVER TRIBUTARIES WERE PARTICULARLY HARD HIT BY HEAVY RAINS
LAST WEEKEND, INCLUDING THE KNIFE AND HEART RIVERS ALONG WITH APPLE
CREEK. THESE RIVERS WILL STILL BE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS THE
NEXT FEW WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE STATE.

THE JAMES AND PIPESTEM CREEK BASINS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY
AFFECTED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH RAIN
TO KEEP THE SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV
HYDROLOGY...AJS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 192027
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE PROBLEM IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER
UTAH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID 50S WEST AND IN THE 60S OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND APPROACHES
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. IN RESPONSE...THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD SO THAT BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY IT IS ALONG
THE MONTANA/DAKOTAS BORDER. SOME MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THE WEST...AND HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED/SMALL CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHORTLY AFTER/AT DAYBREAK THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT MORNING
HOURS. AROUND/AFTER NOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD AND NUMEROUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE IMPACTING ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH DECREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE NOT COMING TO A GOOD
CONSENSUS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE NAM
MODEL IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...WITH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (SOURIS
RIVER BASIN) TAKING THE BIGGEST HIT. THE GFS/ECMWF WANT TO SPLIT THE
ENERGY - AND HENCE RESULTING IN TWO HEAVIER PRECIP BULLSEYES - WITH
ONE OVER THE SOURIS BASIN...AND ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE OTHER SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE FAVORING SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FINAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST INVOLVES A SECTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN...AND AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL.

A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (ESF) HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ALSO
ADDRESSES THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A VERY ACTIVE/WET PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

WILL NOTE 12Z MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION...TIMING/PLACEMENT/AMOUNTS...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING AS A MID LEVEL S/WV
IMPULSE EJECTS INTO CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE
VERY POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WE REMAIN IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DECREASING
CIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...ALONG WITH FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE REGION RESULTING
IN DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BASED ON THE
PROJECTED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL S/WV DEPICTED BY BOTH THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF...MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL THURS
NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. MODEL SPREADS RATHER HIGH IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH LEAD S/WV
IMPULSES DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO KEY IN ON AT THIS TIME. SOME
LOCATION DIFFERENCES AS WELL SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE TRACK OF
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.
LOOKS TO BE WET MOST LOCATIONS.

WE REMAIN IN A QUASI-ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WELL WITH A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND STRONG CAA ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG SURFACE LOW AND UNDERNEATH THE UPPER WAVE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO UPPER 70S AND MID 80S ON THURSDAY. A
SLIGHT MODERATION IN HIGHS FORECAST NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.


&&


.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z AT KISN/KDIK...BUT ADDED MENTION OF VCTS
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY WHEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE WILL BE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THOSE AREAS
OF THE STATE WHICH RECEIVE MULTIPLE PASSES OF HEAVY RAINS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD
OF OVERLAND AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

WHILE THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY
TO NEAR NORMAL THE PAST FEW WEEKS...SOME OF THE MODELS DEPICT
WIDESPREAD RAINS BETWEEN TWO AND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE SOURIS IN NORTH DAKOTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. AREAS THAT
RECEIVE AN INITIAL WETTING DURING THE EARLIER EVENT ARE MORE LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF DURING THE LATTER RAINS. SEVERAL
MISSOURI RIVER TRIBUTARIES WERE PARTICULARLY HARD HIT BY HEAVY RAINS
LAST WEEKEND, INCLUDING THE KNIFE AND HEART RIVERS ALONG WITH APPLE
CREEK. THESE RIVERS WILL STILL BE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS THE
NEXT FEW WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE STATE.

THE JAMES AND PIPESTEM CREEK BASINS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY
AFFECTED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH RAIN
TO KEEP THE SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV
HYDROLOGY...AJS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 192027
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE PROBLEM IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER
UTAH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID 50S WEST AND IN THE 60S OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND APPROACHES
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. IN RESPONSE...THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD SO THAT BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY IT IS ALONG
THE MONTANA/DAKOTAS BORDER. SOME MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THE WEST...AND HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED/SMALL CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHORTLY AFTER/AT DAYBREAK THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT MORNING
HOURS. AROUND/AFTER NOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD AND NUMEROUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE IMPACTING ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH DECREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE NOT COMING TO A GOOD
CONSENSUS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE NAM
MODEL IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...WITH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (SOURIS
RIVER BASIN) TAKING THE BIGGEST HIT. THE GFS/ECMWF WANT TO SPLIT THE
ENERGY - AND HENCE RESULTING IN TWO HEAVIER PRECIP BULLSEYES - WITH
ONE OVER THE SOURIS BASIN...AND ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE OTHER SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE FAVORING SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FINAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST INVOLVES A SECTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN...AND AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL.

A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (ESF) HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ALSO
ADDRESSES THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A VERY ACTIVE/WET PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

WILL NOTE 12Z MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION...TIMING/PLACEMENT/AMOUNTS...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING AS A MID LEVEL S/WV
IMPULSE EJECTS INTO CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE
VERY POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WE REMAIN IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DECREASING
CIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...ALONG WITH FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE REGION RESULTING
IN DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BASED ON THE
PROJECTED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL S/WV DEPICTED BY BOTH THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF...MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL THURS
NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. MODEL SPREADS RATHER HIGH IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH LEAD S/WV
IMPULSES DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO KEY IN ON AT THIS TIME. SOME
LOCATION DIFFERENCES AS WELL SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE TRACK OF
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.
LOOKS TO BE WET MOST LOCATIONS.

WE REMAIN IN A QUASI-ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WELL WITH A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND STRONG CAA ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG SURFACE LOW AND UNDERNEATH THE UPPER WAVE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO UPPER 70S AND MID 80S ON THURSDAY. A
SLIGHT MODERATION IN HIGHS FORECAST NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.


&&


.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z AT KISN/KDIK...BUT ADDED MENTION OF VCTS
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY WHEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE WILL BE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THOSE AREAS
OF THE STATE WHICH RECEIVE MULTIPLE PASSES OF HEAVY RAINS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD
OF OVERLAND AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

WHILE THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY
TO NEAR NORMAL THE PAST FEW WEEKS...SOME OF THE MODELS DEPICT
WIDESPREAD RAINS BETWEEN TWO AND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE SOURIS IN NORTH DAKOTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. AREAS THAT
RECEIVE AN INITIAL WETTING DURING THE EARLIER EVENT ARE MORE LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF DURING THE LATTER RAINS. SEVERAL
MISSOURI RIVER TRIBUTARIES WERE PARTICULARLY HARD HIT BY HEAVY RAINS
LAST WEEKEND, INCLUDING THE KNIFE AND HEART RIVERS ALONG WITH APPLE
CREEK. THESE RIVERS WILL STILL BE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS THE
NEXT FEW WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE STATE.

THE JAMES AND PIPESTEM CREEK BASINS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY
AFFECTED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH RAIN
TO KEEP THE SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV
HYDROLOGY...AJS









000
FXUS63 KFGF 191755
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1255 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH BASED ON
CURRENT VALUES. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANY PCPN WITH LACK OF
INSTABILITY WENT WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHRA ACROSS THE FAR EAST VS
T. NO OTHER CHANCES NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

EXTENDED FOG FOR ANOTHER HOUR ON THE MINNESOTA SIDE OF THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AS FOG SLOWER TO LIFT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE
TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

BASED ON WEBCAMS AND OBS WILL DROP DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A FEW
SPOTS INCLUDING BELTRAMI...HUBBARD...WADENA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
FOG STILL IN PLACE DETROIT LAKES NORTH THROUGH MAHNOMEN TO THIEF
RIVER FALLS TO HALLOCK AND ROSEAU. FERGUS FALLS AND ELBOW LAKE
ONLY RECENTLY WENT DOWN TO 1/4SM AND KEPT THEM OUT AS WEBCAMS
INDICATE A BIT MORE SPOTTY IN THAT AREA WITH NO FOG AT OTTERTAIL
MN DOT SITE. ALSO A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PER RADAR AND OBS BAUDETTE
TO NR BEMIDJI TO WEST OF WADENA.  ADDED A LOW POP FOR THIS THRU 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

500 MB TROUGH IS OVER NORTHEASTERN MN. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS CLEARED
OUT OF PARTS OF NW MN (ROX-FSE-PKD-DTL AREA) AND WITH BRIEF
CLEARING AND THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG QUICKLY FORMED. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TIL 14Z FOR MUCH
OF NORTHWEST MN (HCO-CKN-DTL-ADC AND POINTS EAST) DUE TO
WIDESPREAD 1/4SM FOG. WITH LIGHT WIND DONT FORSEE IMPROVEMENT TIL
AFTER SUNRISE. AREAS THAT NEVER CLEARED OUT SUCH AS BAUDETTE-LAKE
OF THE WOODS HAVENT SEEN FOG AND DIDNT INCLUDE THEM. ALSO WATCHING
TO SEE IF ANY DENSE FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY SPREAD A BIT WEST TOWARD
THE RED RIVER. CROOKSTON-HALLOCK-ADA HAVE BEEN ON THE EDGE AND SO
FAR THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER AREAS (GFK-FAR) HAS BEEN OK. BUT
ALWAYS LEERY OF THAT HOUR RIGHT AT SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BREAK IN THE EAST GIVING WAY TO
DIURNAL CU AS JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT. KEPT VERY LOW POP IN FAR
EAST THIS AFTN BUT 00Z MODELS RUNS SEEM A BIT QUICKER IN LIFTING
COLD POOL WITH 500 MB TROUGH EAST AND SO SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAY BE VERY LIMITED. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME
DIURNAL CU RRV AND ERN ND BUT QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL PUT
A CAP ON COVERAGE.

QUIET AGAIN TONIGHT. COULD BE SOME FOG IN THE FAR EAST BUT AIRMASS
IN ERN ND WHICH WILL BE OVER NRN MN HASNT PRODUCED MUCH FOG SO MAY
BE OK TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE NEXT SHORT MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. EXPECT INCR CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND A DECENT COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST FCST AREA WED LATE AFTN SO KEPT POPS AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL HOLDS OFF TIL WED NIGHT. PRETTY
STRONG MOISTURE SURGE AHD OF SYSTEM WED NIGHT INTO ERN ND/NW MN ON
STRENGTHENING 850 MB JET WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER DOES SEEM AS IF MAIN 850 MB WIND CONVERGENCE IS MORE TIED
TO SOUTHEASTERN SD/SOUTHWESTERN MN 06Z PERIOD AND MODELS DO PICK
UP ON POTENTIALLY TWO COMPLEXES. ONE IN AREA OF 850 MB WIND
CONVERGENCE AND THE OTHER CLOSER TO UPPER WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO
CNTRL-NE ND-SRN MANITOBA. LIKELY POPS EITHER WAY SEEMS VERY
REASONABLE. MAIN RAIN CHANCES MOVE THRU NW MN THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AFTN. WENT WITH HPC QPF
WHICH HAS AVERAGE OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER THE AREA. LIKELY HIGHER
AMTS BUT THIS ALL HINGES OF COURSE ON TSTM COMPLEX DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS IS POOR DURING
THIS TIME WITH THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW PLENTY OF
DIFFERENCES. IT DOES LOOK TO BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD...WITH THE
MID/UPPER FLOW AT LEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...SO DO HAVE SOME POPS IN MOST PERIODS AT THIS POINT. THE
GEM/GFS POINT TO DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BY
SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A WETTER SOUTHWEST FLOW. DESPITE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BRING A SHARPLY COOLER AIR
MASS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING DOWN
BELOW 5C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED MORE SOLID DECK OF CLOUDS OVER
EASTERN ZONES OR EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR ROX TO WADENA MN.
ELSEWHERE SCATTERED CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
3 OR 4 THOUSAND FT. CIGS IN THE FAR EAST WERE MOSTLY VFR/MVFR
BETWEEN 16 AND 31 HUNDRED FT. EXPECT THE FAR EAST TO REMAIN IN
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 3 TO 4
THOUSAND FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP NEAR SUNSET
IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AND CLEAR OFF ELSEWHERE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 191755
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1255 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH BASED ON
CURRENT VALUES. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANY PCPN WITH LACK OF
INSTABILITY WENT WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHRA ACROSS THE FAR EAST VS
T. NO OTHER CHANCES NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

EXTENDED FOG FOR ANOTHER HOUR ON THE MINNESOTA SIDE OF THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AS FOG SLOWER TO LIFT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE
TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

BASED ON WEBCAMS AND OBS WILL DROP DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A FEW
SPOTS INCLUDING BELTRAMI...HUBBARD...WADENA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
FOG STILL IN PLACE DETROIT LAKES NORTH THROUGH MAHNOMEN TO THIEF
RIVER FALLS TO HALLOCK AND ROSEAU. FERGUS FALLS AND ELBOW LAKE
ONLY RECENTLY WENT DOWN TO 1/4SM AND KEPT THEM OUT AS WEBCAMS
INDICATE A BIT MORE SPOTTY IN THAT AREA WITH NO FOG AT OTTERTAIL
MN DOT SITE. ALSO A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PER RADAR AND OBS BAUDETTE
TO NR BEMIDJI TO WEST OF WADENA.  ADDED A LOW POP FOR THIS THRU 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

500 MB TROUGH IS OVER NORTHEASTERN MN. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS CLEARED
OUT OF PARTS OF NW MN (ROX-FSE-PKD-DTL AREA) AND WITH BRIEF
CLEARING AND THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG QUICKLY FORMED. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TIL 14Z FOR MUCH
OF NORTHWEST MN (HCO-CKN-DTL-ADC AND POINTS EAST) DUE TO
WIDESPREAD 1/4SM FOG. WITH LIGHT WIND DONT FORSEE IMPROVEMENT TIL
AFTER SUNRISE. AREAS THAT NEVER CLEARED OUT SUCH AS BAUDETTE-LAKE
OF THE WOODS HAVENT SEEN FOG AND DIDNT INCLUDE THEM. ALSO WATCHING
TO SEE IF ANY DENSE FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY SPREAD A BIT WEST TOWARD
THE RED RIVER. CROOKSTON-HALLOCK-ADA HAVE BEEN ON THE EDGE AND SO
FAR THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER AREAS (GFK-FAR) HAS BEEN OK. BUT
ALWAYS LEERY OF THAT HOUR RIGHT AT SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BREAK IN THE EAST GIVING WAY TO
DIURNAL CU AS JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT. KEPT VERY LOW POP IN FAR
EAST THIS AFTN BUT 00Z MODELS RUNS SEEM A BIT QUICKER IN LIFTING
COLD POOL WITH 500 MB TROUGH EAST AND SO SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAY BE VERY LIMITED. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME
DIURNAL CU RRV AND ERN ND BUT QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL PUT
A CAP ON COVERAGE.

QUIET AGAIN TONIGHT. COULD BE SOME FOG IN THE FAR EAST BUT AIRMASS
IN ERN ND WHICH WILL BE OVER NRN MN HASNT PRODUCED MUCH FOG SO MAY
BE OK TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE NEXT SHORT MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. EXPECT INCR CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND A DECENT COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST FCST AREA WED LATE AFTN SO KEPT POPS AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL HOLDS OFF TIL WED NIGHT. PRETTY
STRONG MOISTURE SURGE AHD OF SYSTEM WED NIGHT INTO ERN ND/NW MN ON
STRENGTHENING 850 MB JET WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER DOES SEEM AS IF MAIN 850 MB WIND CONVERGENCE IS MORE TIED
TO SOUTHEASTERN SD/SOUTHWESTERN MN 06Z PERIOD AND MODELS DO PICK
UP ON POTENTIALLY TWO COMPLEXES. ONE IN AREA OF 850 MB WIND
CONVERGENCE AND THE OTHER CLOSER TO UPPER WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO
CNTRL-NE ND-SRN MANITOBA. LIKELY POPS EITHER WAY SEEMS VERY
REASONABLE. MAIN RAIN CHANCES MOVE THRU NW MN THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AFTN. WENT WITH HPC QPF
WHICH HAS AVERAGE OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER THE AREA. LIKELY HIGHER
AMTS BUT THIS ALL HINGES OF COURSE ON TSTM COMPLEX DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS IS POOR DURING
THIS TIME WITH THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW PLENTY OF
DIFFERENCES. IT DOES LOOK TO BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD...WITH THE
MID/UPPER FLOW AT LEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...SO DO HAVE SOME POPS IN MOST PERIODS AT THIS POINT. THE
GEM/GFS POINT TO DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BY
SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A WETTER SOUTHWEST FLOW. DESPITE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BRING A SHARPLY COOLER AIR
MASS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING DOWN
BELOW 5C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED MORE SOLID DECK OF CLOUDS OVER
EASTERN ZONES OR EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR ROX TO WADENA MN.
ELSEWHERE SCATTERED CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
3 OR 4 THOUSAND FT. CIGS IN THE FAR EAST WERE MOSTLY VFR/MVFR
BETWEEN 16 AND 31 HUNDRED FT. EXPECT THE FAR EAST TO REMAIN IN
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 3 TO 4
THOUSAND FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP NEAR SUNSET
IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AND CLEAR OFF ELSEWHERE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 191742
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1242 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. CURRENT FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS ON
TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE ESTEVAN AND TIOGA OBS WERE REPORTING VISIBILITY IMPROVING TO 4
MILES AND 7 MILES RESPECTIVELY...AND OTHER SITES REPORTED IMPROVING
VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE...REMAINING FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ON TRACK AND
NO CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE ESTEVAN AND TIOGA OBS ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES 1/4 MILE OR
LESS THIS MORNING. THESE REDUCED VISIBILITIES SHOULD QUICKLY BURN
OFF IN A FEW HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ROLLA...FOG HAS YET TO BE OBSERVED IN THE
AREA THIS MORNING. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE...THUS WAS LEFT IN THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS HAS SHIFTED TO THE UPCOMING WET
PERIOD.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE STATE IS SCHEDULED TO INITIATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT...AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO THE 00 UTC WRF ARW AND THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR. WHILE
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE NEARLY SATURATED OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST...THE PAST DAY WITHOUT RAIN SHOULD HAVE BUILT A BIT OF
CAPACITY FOR PROGRESSIVE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT TO PASS WITHOUT
FURTHER FLOODING GIVEN AMOUNTS WELL UNDER AN INCH...PER WPC QPF.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH
RESPECT TO THE UPPER PATTERN NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED TO GO WITH A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH RESPECT TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES.

A WAVE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS
IS WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS HIGHLIGHTED IN
ITS DAY 2 OUTLOOK. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WERE TO SEE A STRONG/SEVERE STORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT...WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OUT OF THE ZONES AND HWO FOR NOW.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY
WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY (HIGHS
AROUND 70).

THE GEM/GFS FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH AND FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z AT KISN/KDIK...BUT ADDED MENTION OF VCTS
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY WHEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 191742
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1242 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. CURRENT FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS ON
TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE ESTEVAN AND TIOGA OBS WERE REPORTING VISIBILITY IMPROVING TO 4
MILES AND 7 MILES RESPECTIVELY...AND OTHER SITES REPORTED IMPROVING
VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE...REMAINING FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ON TRACK AND
NO CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE ESTEVAN AND TIOGA OBS ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES 1/4 MILE OR
LESS THIS MORNING. THESE REDUCED VISIBILITIES SHOULD QUICKLY BURN
OFF IN A FEW HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ROLLA...FOG HAS YET TO BE OBSERVED IN THE
AREA THIS MORNING. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE...THUS WAS LEFT IN THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS HAS SHIFTED TO THE UPCOMING WET
PERIOD.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE STATE IS SCHEDULED TO INITIATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT...AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO THE 00 UTC WRF ARW AND THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR. WHILE
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE NEARLY SATURATED OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST...THE PAST DAY WITHOUT RAIN SHOULD HAVE BUILT A BIT OF
CAPACITY FOR PROGRESSIVE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT TO PASS WITHOUT
FURTHER FLOODING GIVEN AMOUNTS WELL UNDER AN INCH...PER WPC QPF.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH
RESPECT TO THE UPPER PATTERN NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED TO GO WITH A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH RESPECT TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES.

A WAVE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS
IS WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS HIGHLIGHTED IN
ITS DAY 2 OUTLOOK. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WERE TO SEE A STRONG/SEVERE STORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT...WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OUT OF THE ZONES AND HWO FOR NOW.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY
WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY (HIGHS
AROUND 70).

THE GEM/GFS FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH AND FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z AT KISN/KDIK...BUT ADDED MENTION OF VCTS
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY WHEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 191446
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
946 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

EXTENDED FOG FOR ANOTHER HOUR ON THE MINNESOTA SIDE OF THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AS FOG SLOWER TO LIFT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE
TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

BASED ON WEBCAMS AND OBS WILL DROP DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A FEW
SPOTS INCLUDING BELTRAMI...HUBBARD...WADENA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
FOG STILL IN PLACE DETROIT LAKES NORTH THROUGH MAHNOMEN TO THIEF
RIVER FALLS TO HALLOCK AND ROSEAU. FERGUS FALLS AND ELBOW LAKE
ONLY RECENTLY WENT DOWN TO 1/4SM AND KEPT THEM OUT AS WEBCAMS
INDICATE A BIT MORE SPOTTY IN THAT AREA WITH NO FOG AT OTTERTAIL
MN DOT SITE. ALSO A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PER RADAR AND OBS BAUDETTE
TO NR BEMIDJI TO WEST OF WADENA.  ADDED A LOW POP FOR THIS THRU 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

500 MB TROUGH IS OVER NORTHEASTERN MN. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS CLEARED
OUT OF PARTS OF NW MN (ROX-FSE-PKD-DTL AREA) AND WITH BRIEF
CLEARING AND THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG QUICKLY FORMED. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TIL 14Z FOR MUCH
OF NORTHWEST MN (HCO-CKN-DTL-ADC AND POINTS EAST) DUE TO
WIDESPREAD 1/4SM FOG. WITH LIGHT WIND DONT FORSEE IMPROVEMENT TIL
AFTER SUNRISE. AREAS THAT NEVER CLEARED OUT SUCH AS BAUDETTE-LAKE
OF THE WOODS HAVENT SEEN FOG AND DIDNT INCLUDE THEM. ALSO WATCHING
TO SEE IF ANY DENSE FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY SPREAD A BIT WEST TOWARD
THE RED RIVER. CROOKSTON-HALLOCK-ADA HAVE BEEN ON THE EDGE AND SO
FAR THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER AREAS (GFK-FAR) HAS BEEN OK. BUT
ALWAYS LEERY OF THAT HOUR RIGHT AT SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BREAK IN THE EAST GIVING WAY TO
DIURNAL CU AS JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT. KEPT VERY LOW POP IN FAR
EAST THIS AFTN BUT 00Z MODELS RUNS SEEM A BIT QUICKER IN LIFTING
COLD POOL WITH 500 MB TROUGH EAST AND SO SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAY BE VERY LIMITED. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME
DIURNAL CU RRV AND ERN ND BUT QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL PUT
A CAP ON COVERAGE.

QUIET AGAIN TONIGHT. COULD BE SOME FOG IN THE FAR EAST BUT AIRMASS
IN ERN ND WHICH WILL BE OVER NRN MN HASNT PRODUCED MUCH FOG SO MAY
BE OK TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE NEXT SHORT MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. EXPECT INCR CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND A DECENT COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST FCST AREA WED LATE AFTN SO KEPT POPS AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL HOLDS OFF TIL WED NIGHT. PRETTY
STRONG MOISTURE SURGE AHD OF SYSTEM WED NIGHT INTO ERN ND/NW MN ON
STRENGTHENING 850 MB JET WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER DOES SEEM AS IF MAIN 850 MB WIND CONVERGENCE IS MORE TIED
TO SOUTHEASTERN SD/SOUTHWESTERN MN 06Z PERIOD AND MODELS DO PICK
UP ON POTENTIALLY TWO COMPLEXES. ONE IN AREA OF 850 MB WIND
CONVERGENCE AND THE OTHER CLOSER TO UPPER WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO
CNTRL-NE ND-SRN MANITOBA. LIKELY POPS EITHER WAY SEEMS VERY
REASONABLE. MAIN RAIN CHANCES MOVE THRU NW MN THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AFTN. WENT WITH HPC QPF
WHICH HAS AVERAGE OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER THE AREA. LIKELY HIGHER
AMTS BUT THIS ALL HINGES OF COURSE ON TSTM COMPLEX DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS IS POOR DURING
THIS TIME WITH THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW PLENTY OF
DIFFERENCES. IT DOES LOOK TO BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD...WITH THE
MID/UPPER FLOW AT LEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...SO DO HAVE SOME POPS IN MOST PERIODS AT THIS POINT. THE
GEM/GFS POINT TO DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BY
SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A WETTER SOUTHWEST FLOW. DESPITE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BRING A SHARPLY COOLER AIR
MASS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING DOWN
BELOW 5C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

BEMIDJI AREA FOG IS LIFTING AND PER WEBCAMS EXPECT VSBY AT BJI
AIRPORT TO IMPROVE GREATLY THROUGH 13Z-14Z TO P6SM. LOW CLOUD CIGS
WILL REMAIN THOUGH SO IFR REGARDLESS. TVF SOCKED IN WITH FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS AND KEPT THRU 14Z. HOW FAST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
WITH CIGS IS IN QUESTION BUT HAVE RISING CIGS 16Z AND AFTER BUT
LIKELY STILL IN HIGH END MVFR OR LOW END VFR RANGE THIS AFTN WITH
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND. GFK-FAR-DVL IN LITTLE TO NO FOG AND EXPECT
JUST SCATTERED VFR CU THIS AFTN. ALL AREAS CLEAR TONIGHT. COULD BE
SOME FOG IN BEMIDJI AREA BUT AT THE PRESENT NOT INCLUDED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 191446
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
946 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

EXTENDED FOG FOR ANOTHER HOUR ON THE MINNESOTA SIDE OF THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AS FOG SLOWER TO LIFT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE
TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

BASED ON WEBCAMS AND OBS WILL DROP DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A FEW
SPOTS INCLUDING BELTRAMI...HUBBARD...WADENA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
FOG STILL IN PLACE DETROIT LAKES NORTH THROUGH MAHNOMEN TO THIEF
RIVER FALLS TO HALLOCK AND ROSEAU. FERGUS FALLS AND ELBOW LAKE
ONLY RECENTLY WENT DOWN TO 1/4SM AND KEPT THEM OUT AS WEBCAMS
INDICATE A BIT MORE SPOTTY IN THAT AREA WITH NO FOG AT OTTERTAIL
MN DOT SITE. ALSO A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PER RADAR AND OBS BAUDETTE
TO NR BEMIDJI TO WEST OF WADENA.  ADDED A LOW POP FOR THIS THRU 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

500 MB TROUGH IS OVER NORTHEASTERN MN. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS CLEARED
OUT OF PARTS OF NW MN (ROX-FSE-PKD-DTL AREA) AND WITH BRIEF
CLEARING AND THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG QUICKLY FORMED. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TIL 14Z FOR MUCH
OF NORTHWEST MN (HCO-CKN-DTL-ADC AND POINTS EAST) DUE TO
WIDESPREAD 1/4SM FOG. WITH LIGHT WIND DONT FORSEE IMPROVEMENT TIL
AFTER SUNRISE. AREAS THAT NEVER CLEARED OUT SUCH AS BAUDETTE-LAKE
OF THE WOODS HAVENT SEEN FOG AND DIDNT INCLUDE THEM. ALSO WATCHING
TO SEE IF ANY DENSE FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY SPREAD A BIT WEST TOWARD
THE RED RIVER. CROOKSTON-HALLOCK-ADA HAVE BEEN ON THE EDGE AND SO
FAR THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER AREAS (GFK-FAR) HAS BEEN OK. BUT
ALWAYS LEERY OF THAT HOUR RIGHT AT SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BREAK IN THE EAST GIVING WAY TO
DIURNAL CU AS JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT. KEPT VERY LOW POP IN FAR
EAST THIS AFTN BUT 00Z MODELS RUNS SEEM A BIT QUICKER IN LIFTING
COLD POOL WITH 500 MB TROUGH EAST AND SO SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAY BE VERY LIMITED. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME
DIURNAL CU RRV AND ERN ND BUT QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL PUT
A CAP ON COVERAGE.

QUIET AGAIN TONIGHT. COULD BE SOME FOG IN THE FAR EAST BUT AIRMASS
IN ERN ND WHICH WILL BE OVER NRN MN HASNT PRODUCED MUCH FOG SO MAY
BE OK TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE NEXT SHORT MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. EXPECT INCR CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND A DECENT COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST FCST AREA WED LATE AFTN SO KEPT POPS AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL HOLDS OFF TIL WED NIGHT. PRETTY
STRONG MOISTURE SURGE AHD OF SYSTEM WED NIGHT INTO ERN ND/NW MN ON
STRENGTHENING 850 MB JET WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER DOES SEEM AS IF MAIN 850 MB WIND CONVERGENCE IS MORE TIED
TO SOUTHEASTERN SD/SOUTHWESTERN MN 06Z PERIOD AND MODELS DO PICK
UP ON POTENTIALLY TWO COMPLEXES. ONE IN AREA OF 850 MB WIND
CONVERGENCE AND THE OTHER CLOSER TO UPPER WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO
CNTRL-NE ND-SRN MANITOBA. LIKELY POPS EITHER WAY SEEMS VERY
REASONABLE. MAIN RAIN CHANCES MOVE THRU NW MN THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AFTN. WENT WITH HPC QPF
WHICH HAS AVERAGE OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER THE AREA. LIKELY HIGHER
AMTS BUT THIS ALL HINGES OF COURSE ON TSTM COMPLEX DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS IS POOR DURING
THIS TIME WITH THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW PLENTY OF
DIFFERENCES. IT DOES LOOK TO BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD...WITH THE
MID/UPPER FLOW AT LEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...SO DO HAVE SOME POPS IN MOST PERIODS AT THIS POINT. THE
GEM/GFS POINT TO DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BY
SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A WETTER SOUTHWEST FLOW. DESPITE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BRING A SHARPLY COOLER AIR
MASS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING DOWN
BELOW 5C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

BEMIDJI AREA FOG IS LIFTING AND PER WEBCAMS EXPECT VSBY AT BJI
AIRPORT TO IMPROVE GREATLY THROUGH 13Z-14Z TO P6SM. LOW CLOUD CIGS
WILL REMAIN THOUGH SO IFR REGARDLESS. TVF SOCKED IN WITH FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS AND KEPT THRU 14Z. HOW FAST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
WITH CIGS IS IN QUESTION BUT HAVE RISING CIGS 16Z AND AFTER BUT
LIKELY STILL IN HIGH END MVFR OR LOW END VFR RANGE THIS AFTN WITH
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND. GFK-FAR-DVL IN LITTLE TO NO FOG AND EXPECT
JUST SCATTERED VFR CU THIS AFTN. ALL AREAS CLEAR TONIGHT. COULD BE
SOME FOG IN BEMIDJI AREA BUT AT THE PRESENT NOT INCLUDED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KBIS 191435
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
935 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE ESTEVAN AND TIOGA OBS WERE REPORTING VISIBILITY IMPROVING TO 4
MILES AND 7 MILES RESPECTIVELY...AND OTHER SITES REPORTED IMPROVING
VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE...REMAINING FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ON TRACK AND
NO CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE ESTEVAN AND TIOGA OBS ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES 1/4 MILE OR
LESS THIS MORNING. THESE REDUCED VISIBILITIES SHOULD QUICKLY BURN
OFF IN A FEW HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ROLLA...FOG HAS YET TO BE OBSERVED IN THE
AREA THIS MORNING. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE...THUS WAS LEFT IN THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS HAS SHIFTED TO THE UPCOMING WET
PERIOD.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE STATE IS SCHEDULED TO INITIATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT...AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO THE 00 UTC WRF ARW AND THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR. WHILE
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE NEARLY SATURATED OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST...THE PAST DAY WITHOUT RAIN SHOULD HAVE BUILT A BIT OF
CAPACITY FOR PROGRESSIVE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT TO PASS WITHOUT
FURTHER FLOODING GIVEN AMOUNTS WELL UNDER AN INCH...PER WPC QPF.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH
RESPECT TO THE UPPER PATTERN NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED TO GO WITH A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH RESPECT TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES.

A WAVE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS
IS WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS HIGHLIGHTED IN
ITS DAY 2 OUTLOOK. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WERE TO SEE A STRONG/SEVERE STORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT...WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OUT OF THE ZONES AND HWO FOR NOW.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY
WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY (HIGHS
AROUND 70).

THE GEM/GFS FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH AND FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z AT KISN/KDIK...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO GREAT
TO MENTION IN TAFS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...SCHECK






000
FXUS63 KBIS 191435
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
935 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE ESTEVAN AND TIOGA OBS WERE REPORTING VISIBILITY IMPROVING TO 4
MILES AND 7 MILES RESPECTIVELY...AND OTHER SITES REPORTED IMPROVING
VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE...REMAINING FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ON TRACK AND
NO CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE ESTEVAN AND TIOGA OBS ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES 1/4 MILE OR
LESS THIS MORNING. THESE REDUCED VISIBILITIES SHOULD QUICKLY BURN
OFF IN A FEW HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ROLLA...FOG HAS YET TO BE OBSERVED IN THE
AREA THIS MORNING. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE...THUS WAS LEFT IN THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS HAS SHIFTED TO THE UPCOMING WET
PERIOD.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE STATE IS SCHEDULED TO INITIATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT...AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO THE 00 UTC WRF ARW AND THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR. WHILE
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE NEARLY SATURATED OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST...THE PAST DAY WITHOUT RAIN SHOULD HAVE BUILT A BIT OF
CAPACITY FOR PROGRESSIVE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT TO PASS WITHOUT
FURTHER FLOODING GIVEN AMOUNTS WELL UNDER AN INCH...PER WPC QPF.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH
RESPECT TO THE UPPER PATTERN NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED TO GO WITH A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH RESPECT TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES.

A WAVE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS
IS WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS HIGHLIGHTED IN
ITS DAY 2 OUTLOOK. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WERE TO SEE A STRONG/SEVERE STORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT...WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OUT OF THE ZONES AND HWO FOR NOW.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY
WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY (HIGHS
AROUND 70).

THE GEM/GFS FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH AND FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z AT KISN/KDIK...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO GREAT
TO MENTION IN TAFS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...SCHECK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 191153
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
653 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

BASED ON WEBCAMS AND OBS WILL DROP DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A FEW
SPOTS INCLUDING BELTRAMI...HUBBARD...WADENA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
FOG STILL IN PLACE DETROIT LAKES NORTH THROUGH MAHNOMEN TO THIEF
RIVER FALLS TO HALLOCK AND ROSEAU. FERGUS FALLS AND ELBOW LAKE
ONLY RECENTLY WENT DOWN TO 1/4SM AND KEPT THEM OUT AS WEBCAMS
INDICATE A BIT MORE SPOTTY IN THAT AREA WITH NO FOG AT OTTERTAIL
MN DOT SITE. ALSO A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PER RADAR AND OBS BADUETTE
TO NR BEMIDJI TO WEST OF WADENA.  ADDED A LOW POP FOR THIS THRU 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

500 MB TROUGH IS OVER NORTHEASTERN MN. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS CLEARED
OUT OF PARTS OF NW MN (ROX-FSE-PKD-DTL AREA) AND WITH BRIEF
CLEARING AND THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG QUICKLY FORMED. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TIL 14Z FOR MUCH
OF NORTHWEST MN (HCO-CKN-DTL-ADC AND POINTS EAST) DUE TO
WIDESPREAD 1/4SM FOG. WITH LIGHT WIND DONT FORSEE IMPROVEMENT TIL
AFTER SUNRISE. AREAS THAT NEVER CLEARED OUT SUCH AS BAUDETTE-LAKE
OF THE WOODS HAVENT SEEN FOG AND DIDNT INCLUDE THEM. ALSO WATCHING
TO SEE IF ANY DENSE FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY SPREAD A BIT WEST TOWARD
THE RED RIVER. CROOKSTON-HALLOCK-ADA HAVE BEEN ON THE EDGE AND SO
FAR THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER AREAS (GFK-FAR) HAS BEEN OK. BUT
ALWAYS LEERY OF THAT HOUR RIGHT AT SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BREAK IN THE EAST GIVING WAY TO
DIURNAL CU AS JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT. KEPT VERY LOW POP IN FAR
EAST THIS AFTN BUT 00Z MODELS RUNS SEEM A BIT QUICKER IN LIFTING
COLD POOL WITH 500 MB TROUGH EAST AND SO SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAY BE VERY LIMITED. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME
DIURNAL CU RRV AND ERN ND BUT QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL PUT
A CAP ON COVERAGE.

QUIET AGAIN TONIGHT. COULD BE SOME FOG IN THE FAR EAST BUT AIRMASS
IN ERN ND WHICH WILL BE OVER NRN MN HASNT PRODUCED MUCH FOG SO MAY
BE OK TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE NEXT SHORT MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. EXPECT INCR CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND A DECENT COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST FCST AREA WED LATE AFTN SO KEPT POPS AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL HOLDS OFF TIL WED NIGHT. PRETTY
STRONG MOISTURE SURGE AHD OF SYSTEM WED NIGHT INTO ERN ND/NW MN ON
STRENGTHENING 850 MB JET WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER DOES SEEM AS IF MAIN 850 MB WIND COVERGENCE IS MORE TIED
TO SOUTHEASTERN SD/SOUTHWESTERN MN 06Z PERIOD AND MODELS DO PICK
UP ON POTENTIALLY TWO COMPLEXES. ONE IN AREA OF 850 MB WIND
COVERGENCE AND THE OTHER CLOSER TO UPPER WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO
CNTRL-NE ND-SRN MANITOBA. LIKELY POPS EITHER WAY SEEMS VERY
REASONABLE. MAIN RAIN CHANCES MOVE THRU NW MN THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AFTN. WENT WITH HPC QPF
WHICH HAS AVERAGE OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER THE AREA. LIKELY HIGHER
AMTS BUT THIS ALL HINGES OF COURSE ON TSTM COMPLEX DEVELOPMENT.

RIDAY-MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS IS POOR DURING
THIS TIME WITH THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW PLENTY OF
DIFFERENCES. IT DOES LOOK TO BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD...WITH THE
MID/UPPER FLOW AT LEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...SO DO HAVE SOME POPS IN MOST PERIODS AT THIS POINT. THE
GEM/GFS POINT TO DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BY
SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A WETTER SOUTHWEST FLOW. DESPITE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BRING A SHARPLY COOLER AIR
MASS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING DOWN
BELOW 5C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

BEMIDJI AREA FOG IS LIFTING AND PER WEBCAMS EXPECT VSBY AT BJI
AIRPORT TO IMPROVE GREATLY THROUGH 13Z-14Z TO P6SM. LOW CLOUD CIGS
WILL REMAIN THOUGH SO IFR REGARDLESS. TVF SOCKED IN WITH FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS AND KEPT THRU 14Z. HOW FAST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
WITH CIGS IS IN QUESTION BUT HAVE RISING CIGS 16Z AND AFTER BUT
LIKELY STILL IN HIGH END MVFR OR LOW END VFR RANGE THIS AFTN WITH
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND. GFK-FAR-DVL IN LITTLE TO NO FOG AND EXPECT
JUST SCATTERED VFR CU THIS AFTN. ALL AREAS CLEAR TONIGHT. COULD BE
SOME FOG IN BEMIDJI AREA BUT AT THE PRESENT NOT INCLUDED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001-002-
     004-005-007-008-013>016-022-023-027-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 191153
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
653 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

BASED ON WEBCAMS AND OBS WILL DROP DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A FEW
SPOTS INCLUDING BELTRAMI...HUBBARD...WADENA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
FOG STILL IN PLACE DETROIT LAKES NORTH THROUGH MAHNOMEN TO THIEF
RIVER FALLS TO HALLOCK AND ROSEAU. FERGUS FALLS AND ELBOW LAKE
ONLY RECENTLY WENT DOWN TO 1/4SM AND KEPT THEM OUT AS WEBCAMS
INDICATE A BIT MORE SPOTTY IN THAT AREA WITH NO FOG AT OTTERTAIL
MN DOT SITE. ALSO A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PER RADAR AND OBS BADUETTE
TO NR BEMIDJI TO WEST OF WADENA.  ADDED A LOW POP FOR THIS THRU 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

500 MB TROUGH IS OVER NORTHEASTERN MN. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS CLEARED
OUT OF PARTS OF NW MN (ROX-FSE-PKD-DTL AREA) AND WITH BRIEF
CLEARING AND THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG QUICKLY FORMED. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TIL 14Z FOR MUCH
OF NORTHWEST MN (HCO-CKN-DTL-ADC AND POINTS EAST) DUE TO
WIDESPREAD 1/4SM FOG. WITH LIGHT WIND DONT FORSEE IMPROVEMENT TIL
AFTER SUNRISE. AREAS THAT NEVER CLEARED OUT SUCH AS BAUDETTE-LAKE
OF THE WOODS HAVENT SEEN FOG AND DIDNT INCLUDE THEM. ALSO WATCHING
TO SEE IF ANY DENSE FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY SPREAD A BIT WEST TOWARD
THE RED RIVER. CROOKSTON-HALLOCK-ADA HAVE BEEN ON THE EDGE AND SO
FAR THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER AREAS (GFK-FAR) HAS BEEN OK. BUT
ALWAYS LEERY OF THAT HOUR RIGHT AT SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BREAK IN THE EAST GIVING WAY TO
DIURNAL CU AS JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT. KEPT VERY LOW POP IN FAR
EAST THIS AFTN BUT 00Z MODELS RUNS SEEM A BIT QUICKER IN LIFTING
COLD POOL WITH 500 MB TROUGH EAST AND SO SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAY BE VERY LIMITED. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME
DIURNAL CU RRV AND ERN ND BUT QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL PUT
A CAP ON COVERAGE.

QUIET AGAIN TONIGHT. COULD BE SOME FOG IN THE FAR EAST BUT AIRMASS
IN ERN ND WHICH WILL BE OVER NRN MN HASNT PRODUCED MUCH FOG SO MAY
BE OK TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE NEXT SHORT MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. EXPECT INCR CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND A DECENT COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST FCST AREA WED LATE AFTN SO KEPT POPS AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL HOLDS OFF TIL WED NIGHT. PRETTY
STRONG MOISTURE SURGE AHD OF SYSTEM WED NIGHT INTO ERN ND/NW MN ON
STRENGTHENING 850 MB JET WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER DOES SEEM AS IF MAIN 850 MB WIND COVERGENCE IS MORE TIED
TO SOUTHEASTERN SD/SOUTHWESTERN MN 06Z PERIOD AND MODELS DO PICK
UP ON POTENTIALLY TWO COMPLEXES. ONE IN AREA OF 850 MB WIND
COVERGENCE AND THE OTHER CLOSER TO UPPER WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO
CNTRL-NE ND-SRN MANITOBA. LIKELY POPS EITHER WAY SEEMS VERY
REASONABLE. MAIN RAIN CHANCES MOVE THRU NW MN THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AFTN. WENT WITH HPC QPF
WHICH HAS AVERAGE OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER THE AREA. LIKELY HIGHER
AMTS BUT THIS ALL HINGES OF COURSE ON TSTM COMPLEX DEVELOPMENT.

RIDAY-MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS IS POOR DURING
THIS TIME WITH THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW PLENTY OF
DIFFERENCES. IT DOES LOOK TO BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD...WITH THE
MID/UPPER FLOW AT LEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...SO DO HAVE SOME POPS IN MOST PERIODS AT THIS POINT. THE
GEM/GFS POINT TO DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BY
SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A WETTER SOUTHWEST FLOW. DESPITE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BRING A SHARPLY COOLER AIR
MASS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING DOWN
BELOW 5C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

BEMIDJI AREA FOG IS LIFTING AND PER WEBCAMS EXPECT VSBY AT BJI
AIRPORT TO IMPROVE GREATLY THROUGH 13Z-14Z TO P6SM. LOW CLOUD CIGS
WILL REMAIN THOUGH SO IFR REGARDLESS. TVF SOCKED IN WITH FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS AND KEPT THRU 14Z. HOW FAST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
WITH CIGS IS IN QUESTION BUT HAVE RISING CIGS 16Z AND AFTER BUT
LIKELY STILL IN HIGH END MVFR OR LOW END VFR RANGE THIS AFTN WITH
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND. GFK-FAR-DVL IN LITTLE TO NO FOG AND EXPECT
JUST SCATTERED VFR CU THIS AFTN. ALL AREAS CLEAR TONIGHT. COULD BE
SOME FOG IN BEMIDJI AREA BUT AT THE PRESENT NOT INCLUDED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001-002-
     004-005-007-008-013>016-022-023-027-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 191153
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
653 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

BASED ON WEBCAMS AND OBS WILL DROP DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A FEW
SPOTS INCLUDING BELTRAMI...HUBBARD...WADENA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
FOG STILL IN PLACE DETROIT LAKES NORTH THROUGH MAHNOMEN TO THIEF
RIVER FALLS TO HALLOCK AND ROSEAU. FERGUS FALLS AND ELBOW LAKE
ONLY RECENTLY WENT DOWN TO 1/4SM AND KEPT THEM OUT AS WEBCAMS
INDICATE A BIT MORE SPOTTY IN THAT AREA WITH NO FOG AT OTTERTAIL
MN DOT SITE. ALSO A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PER RADAR AND OBS BADUETTE
TO NR BEMIDJI TO WEST OF WADENA.  ADDED A LOW POP FOR THIS THRU 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

500 MB TROUGH IS OVER NORTHEASTERN MN. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS CLEARED
OUT OF PARTS OF NW MN (ROX-FSE-PKD-DTL AREA) AND WITH BRIEF
CLEARING AND THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG QUICKLY FORMED. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TIL 14Z FOR MUCH
OF NORTHWEST MN (HCO-CKN-DTL-ADC AND POINTS EAST) DUE TO
WIDESPREAD 1/4SM FOG. WITH LIGHT WIND DONT FORSEE IMPROVEMENT TIL
AFTER SUNRISE. AREAS THAT NEVER CLEARED OUT SUCH AS BAUDETTE-LAKE
OF THE WOODS HAVENT SEEN FOG AND DIDNT INCLUDE THEM. ALSO WATCHING
TO SEE IF ANY DENSE FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY SPREAD A BIT WEST TOWARD
THE RED RIVER. CROOKSTON-HALLOCK-ADA HAVE BEEN ON THE EDGE AND SO
FAR THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER AREAS (GFK-FAR) HAS BEEN OK. BUT
ALWAYS LEERY OF THAT HOUR RIGHT AT SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BREAK IN THE EAST GIVING WAY TO
DIURNAL CU AS JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT. KEPT VERY LOW POP IN FAR
EAST THIS AFTN BUT 00Z MODELS RUNS SEEM A BIT QUICKER IN LIFTING
COLD POOL WITH 500 MB TROUGH EAST AND SO SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAY BE VERY LIMITED. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME
DIURNAL CU RRV AND ERN ND BUT QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL PUT
A CAP ON COVERAGE.

QUIET AGAIN TONIGHT. COULD BE SOME FOG IN THE FAR EAST BUT AIRMASS
IN ERN ND WHICH WILL BE OVER NRN MN HASNT PRODUCED MUCH FOG SO MAY
BE OK TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE NEXT SHORT MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. EXPECT INCR CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND A DECENT COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST FCST AREA WED LATE AFTN SO KEPT POPS AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL HOLDS OFF TIL WED NIGHT. PRETTY
STRONG MOISTURE SURGE AHD OF SYSTEM WED NIGHT INTO ERN ND/NW MN ON
STRENGTHENING 850 MB JET WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER DOES SEEM AS IF MAIN 850 MB WIND COVERGENCE IS MORE TIED
TO SOUTHEASTERN SD/SOUTHWESTERN MN 06Z PERIOD AND MODELS DO PICK
UP ON POTENTIALLY TWO COMPLEXES. ONE IN AREA OF 850 MB WIND
COVERGENCE AND THE OTHER CLOSER TO UPPER WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO
CNTRL-NE ND-SRN MANITOBA. LIKELY POPS EITHER WAY SEEMS VERY
REASONABLE. MAIN RAIN CHANCES MOVE THRU NW MN THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AFTN. WENT WITH HPC QPF
WHICH HAS AVERAGE OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER THE AREA. LIKELY HIGHER
AMTS BUT THIS ALL HINGES OF COURSE ON TSTM COMPLEX DEVELOPMENT.

RIDAY-MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS IS POOR DURING
THIS TIME WITH THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW PLENTY OF
DIFFERENCES. IT DOES LOOK TO BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD...WITH THE
MID/UPPER FLOW AT LEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...SO DO HAVE SOME POPS IN MOST PERIODS AT THIS POINT. THE
GEM/GFS POINT TO DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BY
SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A WETTER SOUTHWEST FLOW. DESPITE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BRING A SHARPLY COOLER AIR
MASS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING DOWN
BELOW 5C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

BEMIDJI AREA FOG IS LIFTING AND PER WEBCAMS EXPECT VSBY AT BJI
AIRPORT TO IMPROVE GREATLY THROUGH 13Z-14Z TO P6SM. LOW CLOUD CIGS
WILL REMAIN THOUGH SO IFR REGARDLESS. TVF SOCKED IN WITH FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS AND KEPT THRU 14Z. HOW FAST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
WITH CIGS IS IN QUESTION BUT HAVE RISING CIGS 16Z AND AFTER BUT
LIKELY STILL IN HIGH END MVFR OR LOW END VFR RANGE THIS AFTN WITH
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND. GFK-FAR-DVL IN LITTLE TO NO FOG AND EXPECT
JUST SCATTERED VFR CU THIS AFTN. ALL AREAS CLEAR TONIGHT. COULD BE
SOME FOG IN BEMIDJI AREA BUT AT THE PRESENT NOT INCLUDED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001-002-
     004-005-007-008-013>016-022-023-027-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 191153
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
653 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

BASED ON WEBCAMS AND OBS WILL DROP DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A FEW
SPOTS INCLUDING BELTRAMI...HUBBARD...WADENA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
FOG STILL IN PLACE DETROIT LAKES NORTH THROUGH MAHNOMEN TO THIEF
RIVER FALLS TO HALLOCK AND ROSEAU. FERGUS FALLS AND ELBOW LAKE
ONLY RECENTLY WENT DOWN TO 1/4SM AND KEPT THEM OUT AS WEBCAMS
INDICATE A BIT MORE SPOTTY IN THAT AREA WITH NO FOG AT OTTERTAIL
MN DOT SITE. ALSO A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PER RADAR AND OBS BADUETTE
TO NR BEMIDJI TO WEST OF WADENA.  ADDED A LOW POP FOR THIS THRU 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

500 MB TROUGH IS OVER NORTHEASTERN MN. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS CLEARED
OUT OF PARTS OF NW MN (ROX-FSE-PKD-DTL AREA) AND WITH BRIEF
CLEARING AND THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG QUICKLY FORMED. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TIL 14Z FOR MUCH
OF NORTHWEST MN (HCO-CKN-DTL-ADC AND POINTS EAST) DUE TO
WIDESPREAD 1/4SM FOG. WITH LIGHT WIND DONT FORSEE IMPROVEMENT TIL
AFTER SUNRISE. AREAS THAT NEVER CLEARED OUT SUCH AS BAUDETTE-LAKE
OF THE WOODS HAVENT SEEN FOG AND DIDNT INCLUDE THEM. ALSO WATCHING
TO SEE IF ANY DENSE FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY SPREAD A BIT WEST TOWARD
THE RED RIVER. CROOKSTON-HALLOCK-ADA HAVE BEEN ON THE EDGE AND SO
FAR THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER AREAS (GFK-FAR) HAS BEEN OK. BUT
ALWAYS LEERY OF THAT HOUR RIGHT AT SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BREAK IN THE EAST GIVING WAY TO
DIURNAL CU AS JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT. KEPT VERY LOW POP IN FAR
EAST THIS AFTN BUT 00Z MODELS RUNS SEEM A BIT QUICKER IN LIFTING
COLD POOL WITH 500 MB TROUGH EAST AND SO SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAY BE VERY LIMITED. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME
DIURNAL CU RRV AND ERN ND BUT QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL PUT
A CAP ON COVERAGE.

QUIET AGAIN TONIGHT. COULD BE SOME FOG IN THE FAR EAST BUT AIRMASS
IN ERN ND WHICH WILL BE OVER NRN MN HASNT PRODUCED MUCH FOG SO MAY
BE OK TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE NEXT SHORT MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. EXPECT INCR CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND A DECENT COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST FCST AREA WED LATE AFTN SO KEPT POPS AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL HOLDS OFF TIL WED NIGHT. PRETTY
STRONG MOISTURE SURGE AHD OF SYSTEM WED NIGHT INTO ERN ND/NW MN ON
STRENGTHENING 850 MB JET WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER DOES SEEM AS IF MAIN 850 MB WIND COVERGENCE IS MORE TIED
TO SOUTHEASTERN SD/SOUTHWESTERN MN 06Z PERIOD AND MODELS DO PICK
UP ON POTENTIALLY TWO COMPLEXES. ONE IN AREA OF 850 MB WIND
COVERGENCE AND THE OTHER CLOSER TO UPPER WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO
CNTRL-NE ND-SRN MANITOBA. LIKELY POPS EITHER WAY SEEMS VERY
REASONABLE. MAIN RAIN CHANCES MOVE THRU NW MN THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AFTN. WENT WITH HPC QPF
WHICH HAS AVERAGE OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER THE AREA. LIKELY HIGHER
AMTS BUT THIS ALL HINGES OF COURSE ON TSTM COMPLEX DEVELOPMENT.

RIDAY-MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS IS POOR DURING
THIS TIME WITH THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW PLENTY OF
DIFFERENCES. IT DOES LOOK TO BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD...WITH THE
MID/UPPER FLOW AT LEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...SO DO HAVE SOME POPS IN MOST PERIODS AT THIS POINT. THE
GEM/GFS POINT TO DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BY
SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A WETTER SOUTHWEST FLOW. DESPITE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BRING A SHARPLY COOLER AIR
MASS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING DOWN
BELOW 5C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

BEMIDJI AREA FOG IS LIFTING AND PER WEBCAMS EXPECT VSBY AT BJI
AIRPORT TO IMPROVE GREATLY THROUGH 13Z-14Z TO P6SM. LOW CLOUD CIGS
WILL REMAIN THOUGH SO IFR REGARDLESS. TVF SOCKED IN WITH FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS AND KEPT THRU 14Z. HOW FAST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
WITH CIGS IS IN QUESTION BUT HAVE RISING CIGS 16Z AND AFTER BUT
LIKELY STILL IN HIGH END MVFR OR LOW END VFR RANGE THIS AFTN WITH
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND. GFK-FAR-DVL IN LITTLE TO NO FOG AND EXPECT
JUST SCATTERED VFR CU THIS AFTN. ALL AREAS CLEAR TONIGHT. COULD BE
SOME FOG IN BEMIDJI AREA BUT AT THE PRESENT NOT INCLUDED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001-002-
     004-005-007-008-013>016-022-023-027-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KBIS 191134
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE ESTEVAN AND TIOGA OBS ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES 1/4 MILE OR
LESS THIS MORNING. THESE REDUCED VISIBILITIES SHOULD QUICKLY BURN
OFF IN A FEW HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ROLLA...FOG HAS YET TO BE OBSERVED IN THE
AREA THIS MORNING. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE...THUS WAS LEFT IN THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS HAS SHIFTED TO THE UPCOMING WET
PERIOD.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE STATE IS SCHEDULED TO INITIATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT...AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO THE 00 UTC WRF ARW AND THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR. WHILE
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE NEARLY SATURATED OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST...THE PAST DAY WITHOUT RAIN SHOULD HAVE BUILT A BIT OF
CAPACITY FOR PROGRESSIVE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT TO PASS WITHOUT
FURTHER FLOODING GIVEN AMOUNTS WELL UNDER AN INCH...PER WPC QPF.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH
RESPECT TO THE UPPER PATTERN NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED TO GO WITH A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH RESPECT TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES.

A WAVE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS
IS WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS HIGHLIGHTED IN
ITS DAY 2 OUTLOOK. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WERE TO SEE A STRONG/SEVERE STORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT...WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OUT OF THE ZONES AND HWO FOR NOW.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY
WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY (HIGHS
AROUND 70).

THE GEM/GFS FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH AND FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z AT KISN/KDIK...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO GREAT
TO MENTION IN TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...SCHECK





000
FXUS63 KBIS 190854
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ROLLA...FOG HAS YET TO BE OBSERVED IN THE
AREA THIS MORNING. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE...THUS WAS LEFT IN THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS HAS SHIFTED TO THE UPCOMING WET
PERIOD.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE STATE IS SCHEDULED TO INITIATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT...AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO THE 00 UTC WRF ARW AND THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR. WHILE
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE NEARLY SATURATED OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST...THE PAST DAY WITHOUT RAIN SHOULD HAVE BUILT A BIT OF
CAPACITY FOR PROGRESSIVE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT TO PASS WITHOUT
FURTHER FLOODING GIVEN AMOUNTS WELL UNDER AN INCH...PER WPC QPF.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH
RESPECT TO THE UPPER PATTERN NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED TO GO WITH A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH RESPECT TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES.

A WAVE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS
IS WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS HIGHLIGHTED IN
ITS DAY 2 OUTLOOK. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WERE TO SEE A STRONG/SEVERE STORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT...WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OUT OF THE ZONES AND HWO FOR NOW.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY
WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY (HIGHS
AROUND 70).

THE GEM/GFS FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH AND FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

AREAS OF FOG MAY STILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND LAST UNTIL 13Z.
KJMS HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR BECAUSE OF RAINFALL THERE ON
MONDAY...SO VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WERE HELD TO MVFR AT KDIK/KISN.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z AT KISN/KDIK...BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS TOO GREAT TO MENTION IN TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...SCHECK





000
FXUS63 KBIS 190854
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ROLLA...FOG HAS YET TO BE OBSERVED IN THE
AREA THIS MORNING. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE...THUS WAS LEFT IN THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS HAS SHIFTED TO THE UPCOMING WET
PERIOD.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE STATE IS SCHEDULED TO INITIATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT...AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO THE 00 UTC WRF ARW AND THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR. WHILE
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE NEARLY SATURATED OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST...THE PAST DAY WITHOUT RAIN SHOULD HAVE BUILT A BIT OF
CAPACITY FOR PROGRESSIVE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT TO PASS WITHOUT
FURTHER FLOODING GIVEN AMOUNTS WELL UNDER AN INCH...PER WPC QPF.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH
RESPECT TO THE UPPER PATTERN NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED TO GO WITH A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH RESPECT TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES.

A WAVE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS
IS WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS HIGHLIGHTED IN
ITS DAY 2 OUTLOOK. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WERE TO SEE A STRONG/SEVERE STORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT...WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OUT OF THE ZONES AND HWO FOR NOW.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY
WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY (HIGHS
AROUND 70).

THE GEM/GFS FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH AND FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

AREAS OF FOG MAY STILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND LAST UNTIL 13Z.
KJMS HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR BECAUSE OF RAINFALL THERE ON
MONDAY...SO VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WERE HELD TO MVFR AT KDIK/KISN.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z AT KISN/KDIK...BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS TOO GREAT TO MENTION IN TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...SCHECK





000
FXUS63 KBIS 190854
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ROLLA...FOG HAS YET TO BE OBSERVED IN THE
AREA THIS MORNING. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE...THUS WAS LEFT IN THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS HAS SHIFTED TO THE UPCOMING WET
PERIOD.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE STATE IS SCHEDULED TO INITIATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT...AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO THE 00 UTC WRF ARW AND THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR. WHILE
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE NEARLY SATURATED OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST...THE PAST DAY WITHOUT RAIN SHOULD HAVE BUILT A BIT OF
CAPACITY FOR PROGRESSIVE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT TO PASS WITHOUT
FURTHER FLOODING GIVEN AMOUNTS WELL UNDER AN INCH...PER WPC QPF.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH
RESPECT TO THE UPPER PATTERN NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED TO GO WITH A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH RESPECT TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES.

A WAVE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS
IS WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS HIGHLIGHTED IN
ITS DAY 2 OUTLOOK. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WERE TO SEE A STRONG/SEVERE STORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT...WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OUT OF THE ZONES AND HWO FOR NOW.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY
WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY (HIGHS
AROUND 70).

THE GEM/GFS FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH AND FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

AREAS OF FOG MAY STILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND LAST UNTIL 13Z.
KJMS HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR BECAUSE OF RAINFALL THERE ON
MONDAY...SO VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WERE HELD TO MVFR AT KDIK/KISN.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z AT KISN/KDIK...BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS TOO GREAT TO MENTION IN TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...SCHECK





000
FXUS63 KBIS 190854
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ROLLA...FOG HAS YET TO BE OBSERVED IN THE
AREA THIS MORNING. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE...THUS WAS LEFT IN THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS HAS SHIFTED TO THE UPCOMING WET
PERIOD.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE STATE IS SCHEDULED TO INITIATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT...AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO THE 00 UTC WRF ARW AND THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR. WHILE
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE NEARLY SATURATED OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST...THE PAST DAY WITHOUT RAIN SHOULD HAVE BUILT A BIT OF
CAPACITY FOR PROGRESSIVE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT TO PASS WITHOUT
FURTHER FLOODING GIVEN AMOUNTS WELL UNDER AN INCH...PER WPC QPF.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH
RESPECT TO THE UPPER PATTERN NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED TO GO WITH A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH RESPECT TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES.

A WAVE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS
IS WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS HIGHLIGHTED IN
ITS DAY 2 OUTLOOK. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WERE TO SEE A STRONG/SEVERE STORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT...WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OUT OF THE ZONES AND HWO FOR NOW.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY
WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY (HIGHS
AROUND 70).

THE GEM/GFS FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH AND FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

AREAS OF FOG MAY STILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND LAST UNTIL 13Z.
KJMS HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR BECAUSE OF RAINFALL THERE ON
MONDAY...SO VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WERE HELD TO MVFR AT KDIK/KISN.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z AT KISN/KDIK...BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS TOO GREAT TO MENTION IN TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...SCHECK





000
FXUS63 KFGF 190843
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
343 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

500 MB TROUGH IS OVER NORTHEASTERN MN. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS CLEARED
OUT OF PARTS OF NW MN (ROX-FSE-PKD-DTL AREA) AND WITH BRIEF
CLEARING AND THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG QUICKLY FORMED. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TIL 14Z FOR MUCH
OF NORTHWEST MN (HCO-CKN-DTL-ADC AND POINTS EAST) DUE TO
WIDESPREAD 1/4SM FOG. WITH LIGHT WIND DONT FORSEE IMPROVEMENT TIL
AFTER SUNRISE. AREAS THAT NEVER CLEARED OUT SUCH AS BAUDETTE-LAKE
OF THE WOODS HAVENT SEEN FOG AND DIDNT INCLUDE THEM. ALSO WATCHING
TO SEE IF ANY DENSE FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY SPREAD A BIT WEST TOWARD
THE RED RIVER. CROOKSTON-HALLOCK-ADA HAVE BEEN ON THE EDGE AND SO
FAR THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER AREAS (GFK-FAR) HAS BEEN OK. BUT
ALWAYS LEERY OF THAT HOUR RIGHT AT SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BREAK IN THE EAST GIVING WAY TO
DIURNAL CU AS JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT. KEPT VERY LOW POP IN FAR
EAST THIS AFTN BUT 00Z MODELS RUNS SEEM A BIT QUICKER IN LIFTING
COLD POOL WITH 500 MB TROUGH EAST AND SO SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAY BE VERY LIMITED. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME
DIURNAL CU RRV AND ERN ND BUT QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL PUT
A CAP ON COVERAGE.

QUIET AGAIN TONIGHT. COULD BE SOME FOG IN THE FAR EAST BUT AIRMASS
IN ERN ND WHICH WILL BE OVER NRN MN HASNT PRODUCED MUCH FOG SO MAY
BE OK TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE NEXT SHORT MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. EXPECT INCR CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND A DECENT COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST FCST AREA WED LATE AFTN SO KEPT POPS AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL HOLDS OFF TIL WED NIGHT. PRETTY
STRONG MOISTURE SURGE AHD OF SYSTEM WED NIGHT INTO ERN ND/NW MN ON
STRENGTHENING 850 MB JET WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER DOES SEEM AS IF MAIN 850 MB WIND COVERGENCE IS MORE TIED
TO SOUTHEASTERN SD/SOUTHWESTERN MN 06Z PERIOD AND MODELS DO PICK
UP ON POTENTIALLY TWO COMPLEXES. ONE IN AREA OF 850 MB WIND
COVERGENCE AND THE OTHER CLOSER TO UPPER WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO
CNTRL-NE ND-SRN MANITOBA. LIKELY POPS EITHER WAY SEEMS VERY
REASONABLE. MAIN RAIN CHANCES MOVE THRU NW MN THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AFTN. WENT WITH HPC QPF
WHICH HAS AVERAGE OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER THE AREA. LIKELY HIGHER
AMTS BUT THIS ALL HINGES OF COURSE ON TSTM COMPLEX DEVELOPMENT.

RIDAY-MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS IS POOR DURING
THIS TIME WITH THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW PLENTY OF
DIFFERENCES. IT DOES LOOK TO BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD...WITH THE
MID/UPPER FLOW AT LEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...SO DO HAVE SOME POPS IN MOST PERIODS AT THIS POINT. THE
GEM/GFS POINT TO DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BY
SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A WETTER SOUTHWEST FLOW. DESPITE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BRING A SHARPLY COOLER AIR
MASS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING DOWN
BELOW 5C.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF SOME FOG BACKING UP FROM KBJI/KTVF TOWARD
KGFK/KFAR TOWARD MORNING. FOG HAS BEEN REALLY SPORADIC THE PAST
FEW NIGHTS. IF FOG ONLY REMAINS PATCHY IT SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY
TUE MORNING LEADING TO SOME LATE MORNING CUMULUS...GENERALLY
THICKER EAST OF THE RED RIVER. THIS SHOULD FADE AWAY TUE EVENING.
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001-002-
     004-005-007>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 190843
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
343 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

500 MB TROUGH IS OVER NORTHEASTERN MN. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS CLEARED
OUT OF PARTS OF NW MN (ROX-FSE-PKD-DTL AREA) AND WITH BRIEF
CLEARING AND THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG QUICKLY FORMED. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TIL 14Z FOR MUCH
OF NORTHWEST MN (HCO-CKN-DTL-ADC AND POINTS EAST) DUE TO
WIDESPREAD 1/4SM FOG. WITH LIGHT WIND DONT FORSEE IMPROVEMENT TIL
AFTER SUNRISE. AREAS THAT NEVER CLEARED OUT SUCH AS BAUDETTE-LAKE
OF THE WOODS HAVENT SEEN FOG AND DIDNT INCLUDE THEM. ALSO WATCHING
TO SEE IF ANY DENSE FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY SPREAD A BIT WEST TOWARD
THE RED RIVER. CROOKSTON-HALLOCK-ADA HAVE BEEN ON THE EDGE AND SO
FAR THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER AREAS (GFK-FAR) HAS BEEN OK. BUT
ALWAYS LEERY OF THAT HOUR RIGHT AT SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BREAK IN THE EAST GIVING WAY TO
DIURNAL CU AS JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT. KEPT VERY LOW POP IN FAR
EAST THIS AFTN BUT 00Z MODELS RUNS SEEM A BIT QUICKER IN LIFTING
COLD POOL WITH 500 MB TROUGH EAST AND SO SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAY BE VERY LIMITED. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME
DIURNAL CU RRV AND ERN ND BUT QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL PUT
A CAP ON COVERAGE.

QUIET AGAIN TONIGHT. COULD BE SOME FOG IN THE FAR EAST BUT AIRMASS
IN ERN ND WHICH WILL BE OVER NRN MN HASNT PRODUCED MUCH FOG SO MAY
BE OK TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE NEXT SHORT MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. EXPECT INCR CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND A DECENT COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST FCST AREA WED LATE AFTN SO KEPT POPS AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL HOLDS OFF TIL WED NIGHT. PRETTY
STRONG MOISTURE SURGE AHD OF SYSTEM WED NIGHT INTO ERN ND/NW MN ON
STRENGTHENING 850 MB JET WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER DOES SEEM AS IF MAIN 850 MB WIND COVERGENCE IS MORE TIED
TO SOUTHEASTERN SD/SOUTHWESTERN MN 06Z PERIOD AND MODELS DO PICK
UP ON POTENTIALLY TWO COMPLEXES. ONE IN AREA OF 850 MB WIND
COVERGENCE AND THE OTHER CLOSER TO UPPER WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO
CNTRL-NE ND-SRN MANITOBA. LIKELY POPS EITHER WAY SEEMS VERY
REASONABLE. MAIN RAIN CHANCES MOVE THRU NW MN THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AFTN. WENT WITH HPC QPF
WHICH HAS AVERAGE OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER THE AREA. LIKELY HIGHER
AMTS BUT THIS ALL HINGES OF COURSE ON TSTM COMPLEX DEVELOPMENT.

RIDAY-MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS IS POOR DURING
THIS TIME WITH THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW PLENTY OF
DIFFERENCES. IT DOES LOOK TO BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD...WITH THE
MID/UPPER FLOW AT LEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...SO DO HAVE SOME POPS IN MOST PERIODS AT THIS POINT. THE
GEM/GFS POINT TO DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BY
SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A WETTER SOUTHWEST FLOW. DESPITE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BRING A SHARPLY COOLER AIR
MASS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING DOWN
BELOW 5C.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF SOME FOG BACKING UP FROM KBJI/KTVF TOWARD
KGFK/KFAR TOWARD MORNING. FOG HAS BEEN REALLY SPORADIC THE PAST
FEW NIGHTS. IF FOG ONLY REMAINS PATCHY IT SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY
TUE MORNING LEADING TO SOME LATE MORNING CUMULUS...GENERALLY
THICKER EAST OF THE RED RIVER. THIS SHOULD FADE AWAY TUE EVENING.
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001-002-
     004-005-007>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities