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000
FXUS63 KBIS 230538
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1238 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ONLY A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT IN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MADE FOR THIS
UPDATE. HETTINGER WAS ALREADY REPORTING 33 DEGREES...A TAD BELOW THE
FORECAST MINIMUM. EXPECTING A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND TONIGHT SO WAS
NOT CONFIDENT ON LOWERING TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH IN THE WEST.
OTHERWISE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER
CENTRAL MANITOBA WAS OVER THE MINOT/TURTLE MOUNTAIN/NORTHERN JAMES
VALLEY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST...AND EXPECT
CLOUDS TO MOVE EASTWARD AND BE OUT OF THE AREA IN 2-3 HOURS. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...REMOVED SHOWERS FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON
FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. OTHERWISE...ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITING THE REGION VIA SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. NORTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING IN SOME STRATO CU ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AND WILL EXIT THE REGION BY MID EVENING. ACROSS THE
EAST AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION AND WILL
CARRY THE SHOWERS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BE
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 7 PM CDT. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRYER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. GOOD VIEWING
OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TREND ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH ALL THE
DYNAMICS NORTH AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE STATE. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL PUSH
OFF TO THE EAST AS THE MODELS POINT TO A TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE MODELS
DIFFER GREATLY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN NEAR
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CIGS OVER KMOT HAS MOVED EAST...BUT SOME LINGERING SCATTERED
CLOUDS NEAR KJMS MAY AFFECT KJMS FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 00Z. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 00Z AND MOVE/EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE STATE
THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV






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000
FXUS63 KFGF 230445
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO ADD PATCHY FOG FROM THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN FA. THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO
SEE DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING AS RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO THIN
WITH SHOWERS ALL EAST OF THE RED RIVER. STILL EXPECT -RA TO CLEAR
THE FA BY MID EVENING. WILL SEE HOW RAIN BAND HOLDS TOGETHER
FARTHER E AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND CLEARING TRENDS
AS THE PCPN BAND MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
CLOUDS WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO THICKEN ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE PCPN BAND ALSO FILLED IN AND HAS BECOME
CONTINUOUS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS AND
METAR REPORTS SHOW VERY LITTLE AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO WITH
MOST LOCATIONS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS THIN BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE FA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
ARE ALONG A KMOT TO KBIS LINE AND THESE ARE ALSO PROGRESSING TO
THE EAST. THERE ARE ALSO SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST ND
WHICH MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN FA LATER IN THE
EVENING. OVERALL THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. BIGGEST CHANGE WILL PROBABLY BE
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

LOOKING AT MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT ON FRIDAY AS THE
WARMEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPS WORK INTO THE FA ON SAT
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH MODELS
AGREEING THAT A BROAD SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWFA. THE RESULTANT FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAKE FOR A SEASONALLY
COOL NIGHT. THINGS CHANGE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THEY OFTEN DO IN THE
FALL...SO THAT BY 18Z SUNDAY A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS.
BRISK...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. WITH SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWFA EXPECT A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. LOW POPS IN BLEND MAKE SENSE GIVING THE NORTHWARD
RUSH OF RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE. ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWS AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW SENDS ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COMBINED WITH STRONG OPEN WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL DEPICTION OF -SHRA IN UPGLIDE AREA NORTHWEST
OF LOW MAKES SENSE. A MIX POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH CRITICAL
THICKNESS AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF WEDNESDAY IT LEAVES A WEAK BOUNDARY
STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWFA. WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE
AND UPPER SHEAR AXIS DEPICTED IN GFS LOW POP -SHRA...MAYBE MORNING
MIX SEEMS LOGICAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS ON BACK EDGE OF DEPARTING RAIN BAND WILL
EXIT FA TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO LEAVING THE FA VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
AT THIS POINT ON FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY.
MAINTAINED MENTION AT BJI LEAVING REMAINDER FOG FREE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/EWENS
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 230257
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
957 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO ADD PATCHY FOG FROM THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN FA. THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO
SEE DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING AS RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO THIN
WITH SHOWERS ALL EAST OF THE RED RIVER. STILL EXPECT -RA TO CLEAR
THE FA BY MID EVENING. WILL SEE HOW RAIN BAND HOLDS TOGETHER
FARTHER E AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND CLEARING TRENDS
AS THE PCPN BAND MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
CLOUDS WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO THICKEN ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE PCPN BAND ALSO FILLED IN AND HAS BECOME
CONTINUOUS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS AND
METAR REPORTS SHOW VERY LITTLE AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO WITH
MOST LOCATIONS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS THIN BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE FA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
ARE ALONG A KMOT TO KBIS LINE AND THESE ARE ALSO PROGRESSING TO
THE EAST. THERE ARE ALSO SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST ND
WHICH MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN FA LATER IN THE
EVENING. OVERALL THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. BIGGEST CHANGE WILL PROBABLY BE
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

LOOKING AT MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT ON FRIDAY AS THE
WARMEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPS WORK INTO THE FA ON SAT
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH MODELS
AGREEING THAT A BROAD SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWFA. THE RESULTANT FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAKE FOR A SEASONALLY
COOL NIGHT. THINGS CHANGE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THEY OFTEN DO IN THE
FALL...SO THAT BY 18Z SUNDAY A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS.
BRISK...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. WITH SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWFA EXPECT A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. LOW POPS IN BLEND MAKE SENSE GIVING THE NORTHWARD
RUSH OF RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE. ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWS AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW SENDS ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COMBINED WITH STRONG OPEN WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL DEPICTION OF -SHRA IN UPGLIDE AREA NORTHWEST
OF LOW MAKES SENSE. A MIX POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH CRITICAL
THICKNESS AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF WEDNESDAY IT LEAVES A WEAK BOUNDARY
STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWFA. WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE
AND UPPER SHEAR AXIS DEPICTED IN GFS LOW POP -SHRA...MAYBE MORNING
MIX SEEMS LOGICAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

RAIN HAS CLEARED AREAS WEST OF THE RED RIVER AND WITH RAIN BAND
SHRINKING AND PROGRESSIVE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE OVER EAST OF THE
VALLEY BY MID EVENING. SOME WRAP AROUND LOW VFR CIGS MAY AFFECT
NORTHERN TAF SITES WITH THE REMAINDER CLEARING FROM W-E. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR BR OVER THE FAR EAST AND MENTIONED SOME BR IN THE
BJI TAF. REMAINDER OF THE SITES WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED TOMORROW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/EWENS
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 230235
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
935 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...REMOVED SHOWERS FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON
FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. OTHERWISE...ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITING THE REGION VIA SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. NORTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING IN SOME STRATO CU ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AND WILL EXIT THE REGION BY MID EVENING. ACROSS THE
EAST AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION AND WILL
CARRY THE SHOWERS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BE
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 7 PM CDT. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRYER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. GOOD VIEWING
OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TREND ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH ALL THE
DYNAMICS NORTH AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE STATE. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL PUSH
OFF TO THE EAST AS THE MODELS POINT TO A TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE MODELS
DIFFER GREATLY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN NEAR
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CIGS OVER KMOT WILL CLEAR OUT BY 03Z THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING
WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TM







000
FXUS63 KFGF 222335
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
635 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING AS RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO THIN
WITH SHOWERS ALL EAST OF THE RED RIVER. STILL EXPECT -RA TO CLEAR
THE FA BY MID EVENING. WILL SEE HOW RAIN BAND HOLDS TOGETHER
FARTHER E AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND CLEARING TRENDS
AS THE PCPN BAND MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
CLOUDS WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO THICKEN ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE PCPN BAND ALSO FILLED IN AND HAS BECOME
CONTINUOUS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS AND
METAR REPORTS SHOW VERY LITTLE AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO WITH
MOST LOCATIONS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS THIN BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE FA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
ARE ALONG A KMOT TO KBIS LINE AND THESE ARE ALSO PROGRESSING TO
THE EAST. THERE ARE ALSO SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST ND
WHICH MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN FA LATER IN THE
EVENING. OVERALL THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. BIGGEST CHANGE WILL PROBABLY BE
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

LOOKING AT MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT ON FRIDAY AS THE
WARMEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPS WORK INTO THE FA ON SAT
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH MODELS
AGREEING THAT A BROAD SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWFA. THE RESULTANT FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAKE FOR A SEASONALLY
COOL NIGHT. THINGS CHANGE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THEY OFTEN DO IN THE
FALL...SO THAT BY 18Z SUNDAY A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS.
BRISK...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. WITH SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWFA EXPECT A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. LOW POPS IN BLEND MAKE SENSE GIVING THE NORTHWARD
RUSH OF RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE. ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWS AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW SENDS ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COMBINED WITH STRONG OPEN WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL DEPICTION OF -SHRA IN UPGLIDE AREA NORTHWEST
OF LOW MAKES SENSE. A MIX POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH CRITICAL
THICKNESS AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF WEDNESDAY IT LEAVES A WEAK BOUNDARY
STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWFA. WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE
AND UPPER SHEAR AXIS DEPICTED IN GFS LOW POP -SHRA...MAYBE MORNING
MIX SEEMS LOGICAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

RAIN HAS CLEARED AREAS WEST OF THE RED RIVER AND WITH RAIN BAND
SHRINKING AND PROGRESSIVE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE OVER EAST OF THE
VALLEY BY MID EVENING. SOME WRAP AROUND LOW VFR CIGS MAY AFFECT
NORTHERN TAF SITES WITH THE REMAINDER CLEARING FROM W-E. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR BR OVER THE FAR EAST AND MENTIONED SOME BR IN THE
BJI TAF. REMAINDER OF THE SITES WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED TOMORROW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/EWENS
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 222255
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
555 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...REMOVED SHOWERS FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON
FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. OTHERWISE...ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITING THE REGION VIA SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. NORTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING IN SOME STRATO CU ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AND WILL EXIT THE REGION BY MID EVENING. ACROSS THE
EAST AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION AND WILL
CARRY THE SHOWERS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BE
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 7 PM CDT. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRYER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. GOOD VIEWING
OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TREND ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH ALL THE
DYNAMICS NORTH AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE STATE. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL PUSH
OFF TO THE EAST AS THE MODELS POINT TO A TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE MODELS
DIFFER GREATLY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN NEAR
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CIGS OVER KMOT WILL CLEAR OUT BY 03Z THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING
WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 222255
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
555 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...REMOVED SHOWERS FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON
FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. OTHERWISE...ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITING THE REGION VIA SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. NORTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING IN SOME STRATO CU ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AND WILL EXIT THE REGION BY MID EVENING. ACROSS THE
EAST AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION AND WILL
CARRY THE SHOWERS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BE
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 7 PM CDT. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRYER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. GOOD VIEWING
OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TREND ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH ALL THE
DYNAMICS NORTH AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE STATE. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL PUSH
OFF TO THE EAST AS THE MODELS POINT TO A TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE MODELS
DIFFER GREATLY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN NEAR
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CIGS OVER KMOT WILL CLEAR OUT BY 03Z THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING
WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 221958
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITING THE REGION VIA SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. NORTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING IN SOME STRATO CU ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AND WILL EXIT THE REGION BY MID EVENING. ACROSS THE
EAST AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION AND WILL
CARRY THE SHOWERS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BE
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 7 PM CDT. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRYER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. GOOD VIEWING
OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TREND ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH ALL THE
DYNAMICS NORTH AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE STATE. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL PUSH
OFF TO THE EAST AS THE MODELS POINT TO A TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE MODELS
DIFFER GREATLY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN NEAR
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL BRING STRATO CU ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, THIS WILL IMPACT
KISN-KMOT WITH LOW VFR CLOUDS. OTHERWISE SHOWERS WILL END AT KJMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND VFR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA









000
FXUS63 KFGF 221954
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND CLEARING TRENDS
AS THE PCPN BAND MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
CLOUDS WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO THICKEN ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE PCPN BAND ALSO FILLED IN AND HAS BECOME
CONTINUOUS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS AND
METAR REPORTS SHOW VERY LITTLE AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO WITH
MOST LOCATIONS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS THIN BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE FA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
ARE ALONG A KMOT TO KBIS LINE AND THESE ARE ALSO PROGRESSING TO
THE EAST. THERE ARE ALSO SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST ND
WHICH MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN FA LATER IN THE
EVENING. OVERALL THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. BIGGEST CHANGE WILL PROBABLY BE
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

LOOKING AT MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT ON FRIDAY AS THE
WARMEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPS WORK INTO THE FA ON SAT
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH MODELS
AGREEING THAT A BROAD SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWFA. THE RESULTANT FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAKE FOR A SEASONALLY
COOL NIGHT. THINGS CHANGE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THEY OFTEN DO IN THE
FALL...SO THAT BY 18Z SUNDAY A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS.
BRISK...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. WITH SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWFA EXPECT A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. LOW POPS IN BLEND MAKE SENSE GIVING THE NORTHWARD
RUSH OF RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE. ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWS AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW SENDS ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COMBINED WITH STRONG OPEN WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL DEPICTION OF -SHRA IN UPGLIDE AREA NORTHWEST
OF LOW MAKES SENSE. A MIX POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH CRITICAL
THICKNESS AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF WEDNESDAY IT LEAVES A WEAK BOUNDARY
STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWFA. WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE
AND UPPER SHEAR AXIS DEPICTED IN GFS LOW POP -SHRA...MAYBE MORNING
MIX SEEMS LOGICAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

GUSTY WINDS AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES WILL DECREASE AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS GFK/FAR
AND TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANY INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION SO BELIEVE THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE LOW. OTHERWISE...
IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME CIGS NEARING MVFR IN MODERATE
RAIN. HAVE BEEN WATCHING CENTRAL SD FOR TRENDS. AFTER THIS
EVENING...SKIES CLEAR OUT. THE NAM TRIES TO BRING IN LOW IFR CIGS
TO KBJI LATE TONIGHT. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER. THE
SREF ENSEMBLE HAS LOW CIGS FURTHER EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/EWENS
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 221742
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN FA HAVE REALLY TAPERED
BACK BUT ARE INCREASING AGAIN JUST TO THE SW OF THE FA. THESE
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD BACK INTO THE FA THIS AFTERNOON...TAKING
LONGEST TO GET INTO AREAS EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. CUT BACK A
LITTLE MORE ON EXPECTED PCPN AMOUNTS TOO AS UPSTREAM LOCATIONS
HAVE NOT BEEN GETTING VERY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS
NOSING INTO NV. JET WAS UNDERCUTTING SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTS EAST WED NIGHT. SHOWALTER BECOME NEGATIVE AS
850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO DIG A BIT
FRI WITH DOWN STREAM AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE/TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS RESPECTIVELY. MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED
ATMOSPHERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG/150+ KNOT/ UPPER LEVEL JET TO NOSE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA FRI. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...EXPECT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPS
COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY...AND DIFFER THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY DEALING WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD
ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KDVL WILL LIGHTEN UP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE KDVL
WILL STAY W/SW AND LIGHTEN UP DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...RK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 221742
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN FA HAVE REALLY TAPERED
BACK BUT ARE INCREASING AGAIN JUST TO THE SW OF THE FA. THESE
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD BACK INTO THE FA THIS AFTERNOON...TAKING
LONGEST TO GET INTO AREAS EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. CUT BACK A
LITTLE MORE ON EXPECTED PCPN AMOUNTS TOO AS UPSTREAM LOCATIONS
HAVE NOT BEEN GETTING VERY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS
NOSING INTO NV. JET WAS UNDERCUTTING SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTS EAST WED NIGHT. SHOWALTER BECOME NEGATIVE AS
850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO DIG A BIT
FRI WITH DOWN STREAM AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE/TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS RESPECTIVELY. MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED
ATMOSPHERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG/150+ KNOT/ UPPER LEVEL JET TO NOSE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA FRI. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...EXPECT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPS
COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY...AND DIFFER THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY DEALING WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD
ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KDVL WILL LIGHTEN UP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE KDVL
WILL STAY W/SW AND LIGHTEN UP DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...RK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 221741
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1241 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AFTER 1 PM CDT. CLEARING CLOUDS SOUTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. STRATO CU ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
FROM THE UPPER LOW CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GRADUAL
CLEARING SOUTH CENTRAL. SHOWERS DIMINISHING AND MOVING EAST THIS
AFTERNOON JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW EXPECTED BETWEEN MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER
VALLEYS NORTH TI DEVILS LAKE BASIN. LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THE MORNING EAST CENTRAL. TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS LOOK GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THUNDER
MENTION OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY REMAINS INDICATED BY A WEAK THUNDERSTORM MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN WELLS COUNTY. HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A
BIT THROUGH THE DAY MAINLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PUSHING FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHWEST MANITOBA WHILE COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA STRETCHING JUST TO THE WEST OF A LINE
FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH AXIS
SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA INTO WESTERN WYOMING WITH RIDGE
OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS IS BRINGING ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
OUR AREA WITH A VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES SLIDING THROUGH AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH...WHICH HAS BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TODAY...TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION SLIDING
OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS...COMBINED WITH PROGRESSING COLD
FRONT...WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES COMING LATER TODAY MAINLY OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS MAIN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AS RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BRINGING QUIET CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS BROAD
RIDGE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CONTINUED WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST AS MODELS TRY TO BRING A BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION.
MOST MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN
WILL SPREAD STRATO CU ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO KMOT WITH LOW
VFR TO MVFR POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON KISN-KMOT. SHOWERS ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR
WITH DECREASING WINDS THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 221741
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1241 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AFTER 1 PM CDT. CLEARING CLOUDS SOUTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. STRATO CU ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
FROM THE UPPER LOW CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GRADUAL
CLEARING SOUTH CENTRAL. SHOWERS DIMINISHING AND MOVING EAST THIS
AFTERNOON JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW EXPECTED BETWEEN MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER
VALLEYS NORTH TI DEVILS LAKE BASIN. LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THE MORNING EAST CENTRAL. TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS LOOK GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THUNDER
MENTION OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY REMAINS INDICATED BY A WEAK THUNDERSTORM MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN WELLS COUNTY. HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A
BIT THROUGH THE DAY MAINLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PUSHING FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHWEST MANITOBA WHILE COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA STRETCHING JUST TO THE WEST OF A LINE
FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH AXIS
SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA INTO WESTERN WYOMING WITH RIDGE
OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS IS BRINGING ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
OUR AREA WITH A VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES SLIDING THROUGH AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH...WHICH HAS BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TODAY...TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION SLIDING
OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS...COMBINED WITH PROGRESSING COLD
FRONT...WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES COMING LATER TODAY MAINLY OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS MAIN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AS RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BRINGING QUIET CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS BROAD
RIDGE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CONTINUED WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST AS MODELS TRY TO BRING A BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION.
MOST MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN
WILL SPREAD STRATO CU ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO KMOT WITH LOW
VFR TO MVFR POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON KISN-KMOT. SHOWERS ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR
WITH DECREASING WINDS THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 221703
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1203 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TODAY NOT LOOKING QUITE AS BAD AS MODELS WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY.
THERE IS ACTUALLY A LOT OF MORNING SUNSHINE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. A LITTLE BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IS OUT ACROSS THE
KDVL REGION WHERE SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH. FOR
THE MOST PART ANY CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS HAVE ALL
BEEN MID OR HIGH LEVEL. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES OUT THAT WAY BUT THESE HAVE BEEN ON THE WANE. THEREFORE
WILL JUST GO WITH SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY AS IT DOES LOOK MORE
STABLE THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS. HAVE TRIED TO NARROW DOWN THE PCPN
AREA A LITTLE MORE AS THESE SHOWERS ARE IN A THIN BAND SO FAR AND
ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE PCPN. THEY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE NOON HOUR AND THEN EASTWARD INTO MN THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY RATHER GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING
AND SHOULD THEN BEGIN A SLOW DECREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS
NOSING INTO NV. JET WAS UNDERCUTTING SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTS EAST WED NIGHT. SHOWALTER BECOME NEGATIVE AS
850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO DIG A BIT
FRI WITH DOWN STREAM AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE/TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS RESPECTIVELY. MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED
ATMOSPHERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG/150+ KNOT/ UPPER LEVEL JET TO NOSE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA FRI. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...EXPECT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPS
COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY...AND DIFFER THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

GUSTY WINDS AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES WILL DECREASE AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS GFK/FAR
AND TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANY INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION SO BELIEVE THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE LOW. OTHERWISE...
IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME CIGS NEARING MVFR IN MODERATE
RAIN. HAVE BEEN WATCHING CENTRAL SD FOR TRENDS. AFTER THIS
EVENING...SKIES CLEAR OUT. THE NAM TRIES TO BRING IN LOW IFR CIGS
TO KBJI LATE TONIGHT. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER. THE
SREF ENSEMBLE HAS LOW CIGS FURTHER EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 221703
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1203 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TODAY NOT LOOKING QUITE AS BAD AS MODELS WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY.
THERE IS ACTUALLY A LOT OF MORNING SUNSHINE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. A LITTLE BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IS OUT ACROSS THE
KDVL REGION WHERE SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH. FOR
THE MOST PART ANY CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS HAVE ALL
BEEN MID OR HIGH LEVEL. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES OUT THAT WAY BUT THESE HAVE BEEN ON THE WANE. THEREFORE
WILL JUST GO WITH SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY AS IT DOES LOOK MORE
STABLE THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS. HAVE TRIED TO NARROW DOWN THE PCPN
AREA A LITTLE MORE AS THESE SHOWERS ARE IN A THIN BAND SO FAR AND
ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE PCPN. THEY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE NOON HOUR AND THEN EASTWARD INTO MN THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY RATHER GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING
AND SHOULD THEN BEGIN A SLOW DECREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS
NOSING INTO NV. JET WAS UNDERCUTTING SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTS EAST WED NIGHT. SHOWALTER BECOME NEGATIVE AS
850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO DIG A BIT
FRI WITH DOWN STREAM AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE/TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS RESPECTIVELY. MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED
ATMOSPHERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG/150+ KNOT/ UPPER LEVEL JET TO NOSE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA FRI. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...EXPECT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPS
COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY...AND DIFFER THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

GUSTY WINDS AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES WILL DECREASE AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS GFK/FAR
AND TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANY INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION SO BELIEVE THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE LOW. OTHERWISE...
IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME CIGS NEARING MVFR IN MODERATE
RAIN. HAVE BEEN WATCHING CENTRAL SD FOR TRENDS. AFTER THIS
EVENING...SKIES CLEAR OUT. THE NAM TRIES TO BRING IN LOW IFR CIGS
TO KBJI LATE TONIGHT. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER. THE
SREF ENSEMBLE HAS LOW CIGS FURTHER EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG







000
FXUS63 KBIS 221454
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
954 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW EXPECTED BETWEEN MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER
VALLEYS NORTH TI DEVILS LAKE BASIN. LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THE MORNING EAST CENTRAL. TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS LOOK GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THUNDER
MENTION OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY REMAINS INDICATED BY A WEAK THUNDERSTORM MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN WELLS COUNTY. HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A
BIT THROUGH THE DAY MAINLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PUSHING FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHWEST MANITOBA WHILE COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA STRETCHING JUST TO THE WEST OF A LINE
FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH AXIS
SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA INTO WESTERN WYOMING WITH RIDGE
OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS IS BRINGING ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
OUR AREA WITH A VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES SLIDING THROUGH AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH...WHICH HAS BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TODAY...TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION SLIDING
OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS...COMBINED WITH PROGRESSING COLD
FRONT...WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES COMING LATER TODAY MAINLY OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS MAIN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AS RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BRINGING QUIET CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS BROAD
RIDGE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CONTINUED WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST AS MODELS TRY TO BRING A BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION.
MOST MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH A WESTERLY WIND 15 TO 25 KTS DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 221439
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
939 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TODAY NOT LOOKING QUITE AS BAD AS MODELS WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY.
THERE IS ACTUALLY A LOT OF MORNING SUNSHINE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. A LITTLE BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IS OUT ACROSS THE
KDVL REGION WHERE SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH. FOR
THE MOST PART ANY CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS HAVE ALL
BEEN MID OR HIGH LEVEL. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES OUT THAT WAY BUT THESE HAVE BEEN ON THE WANE. THEREFORE
WILL JUST GO WITH SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY AS IT DOES LOOK MORE
STABLE THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS. HAVE TRIED TO NARROW DOWN THE PCPN
AREA A LITTLE MORE AS THESE SHOWERS ARE IN A THIN BAND SO FAR AND
ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE PCPN. THEY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE NOON HOUR AND THEN EASTWARD INTO MN THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY RATHER GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING
AND SHOULD THEN BEGIN A SLOW DECREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS
NOSING INTO NV. JET WAS UNDERCUTTING SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTS EAST WED NIGHT. SHOWALTER BECOME NEGATIVE AS
850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO DIG A BIT
FRI WITH DOWN STREAM AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE/TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS RESPECTIVELY. MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED
ATMOSPHERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG/150+ KNOT/ UPPER LEVEL JET TO NOSE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA FRI. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...EXPECT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPS
COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY...AND DIFFER THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A NARROW BAND OF
BROKEN CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND 45 HUNDRED FT EXTENDED FROM AXN TO
TVF. BAND WAS MOVING TO THE EAST AT 20-25 KNOTS. PATCHY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WERE OVER EASTERN ND. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...HOPPES







000
FXUS63 KFGF 221203
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
703 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAY ADJUST POPS DOWN FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS
NOSING INTO NV. JET WAS UNDERCUTTING SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTS EAST WED NIGHT. SHOWALTER BECOME NEGATIVE AS
850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO DIG A BIT
FRI WITH DOWN STREAM AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE/TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS RESPECTIVELY. MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED
ATMOSPHERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG/150+ KNOT/ UPPER LEVEL JET TO NOSE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA FRI. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...EXPECT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPS
COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY...AND DIFFER THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A NARROW BAND OF
BROKEN CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND 45 HUNDRED FT EXTENDED FROM AXN TO
TVF. BAND WAS MOVING TO THE EAST AT 20-25 KNOTS. PATCHY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WERE OVER EASTERN ND. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KBIS 221130
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
630 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THUNDER
MENTION OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY REMAINS INDICATED BY A WEAK THUNDERSTORM MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN WELLS COUNTY. HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A
BIT THROUGH THE DAY MAINLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PUSHING FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHWEST MANITOBA WHILE COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA STRETCHING JUST TO THE WEST OF A LINE
FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH AXIS
SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA INTO WESTERN WYOMING WITH RIDGE
OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS IS BRINGING ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
OUR AREA WITH A VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES SLIDING THROUGH AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH...WHICH HAS BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TODAY...TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION SLIDING
OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS...COMBINED WITH PROGRESSING COLD
FRONT...WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES COMING LATER TODAY MAINLY OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS MAIN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AS RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BRINGING QUIET CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS BROAD
RIDGE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CONTINUED WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST AS MODELS TRY TO BRING A BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION.
MOST MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SCT -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...WITH CHANCES PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
ISOLD -TSRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING BY EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 220900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS
NOSING INTO NV. JET WAS UNDERCUTTING SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTS EAST WED NIGHT. SHOWALTER BECOME NEGATIVE AS
850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO DIG A BIT
FRI WITH DOWN STREAM AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE/TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS RESPECTIVELY. MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED
ATMOSPHERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG/150+ KNOT/ UPPER LEVEL JET TO NOSE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA FRI. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...EXPECT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPS
COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY...AND DIFFER THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRIMARILY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
SPOTTY ELEVATED T POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT OTHERWISE MAIN PCPN BAND WILL CROSS DVL MID
MORNING...VALLEY AROUND 18Z AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EAST.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KBIS 220845
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PUSHING FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHWEST MANITOBA WHILE COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA STRETCHING JUST TO THE WEST OF A LINE
FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH AXIS
SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA INTO WESTERN WYOMING WITH RIDGE
OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS IS BRINGING ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
OUR AREA WITH A VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES SLIDING THROUGH AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH...WHICH HAS BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TODAY...TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION SLIDING
OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS...COMBINED WITH PROGRESSING COLD
FRONT...WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES COMING LATER TODAY MAINLY OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS MAIN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AS RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BRINGING QUIET CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS BROAD
RIDGE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CONTINUED WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST AS MODELS TRY TO BRING A BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION.
MOST MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH KISN AND KDIK AS OF 06Z WEDNESDAY.
REST OF THE TERMINALS HAVE SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN
AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS NOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL SHIFT
TOWARD KISN/KDIK BY 13Z WEDNESDAY...AND INTO KMOT BY 18Z. THERE
COULD BE INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AT THESE TERMINALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH A VCSH OVER THE
AERODROMES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KJMS
WHERE PREDOMINANT -SHRA IS FORECAST BETWEEN 15Z AND 23Z WEDNESDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 220513
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1213 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
WEST. RADAR IMAGERY...REGIONAL AND LOCAL...SHOWS INCREASING AREAS
OF REFLECTIVITY`S DEVELOPING...MOST OF WHICH IS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
BEING SAMPLED AND INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER
BOWMAN RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS IN FAR EASTERN MONTANA WITH
POCKETS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HONE IN ON THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...AND THEN INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AT TIMES ARE EXPECTED MID MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND CONCUR WITH THIS AS THEY WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND NON-SEVERE. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
DURING THE PAST HOUR. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD
EAST OVER THE STATE TONIGHT IN AN AREA OF ELEVATED CAPE AHEAD OF
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PIVOTING INTO EASTERN MONTANA. ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER
ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. ITS PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL LAG BEHIND
AND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...DELAYED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ROBUST CAP IN PLACE AS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVERSPREADS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE SHOWALTER INDEX TRENDS NEGATIVE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SOUTHEAST. THIS LAYER ABOVE THE CAP COULD
RESULT IN ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TRIED TO FIT THE POPS WITH THE BEST FORCING FOR LIFT. ENDED UP
FOCUSING ON THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 60S WHICH IS 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE MOUNTAIN
WEST. OF COURSE BEING NEARLY A WEEK WAY...GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY
ON PRECIP CHANCES AND PLACEMENT.

TEMPERATURE WISE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH KISN AND KDIK AS OF 06Z WEDNESDAY.
REST OF THE TERMINALS HAVE SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN
AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS NOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL SHIFT
TOWARD KISN/KDIK BY 13Z WEDNESDAY...AND INTO KMOT BY 18Z. THERE
COULD BE INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AT THESE TERMINALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH A VCSH OVER TH
AERODROMES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KJMS
WHERE PREDOMINANT -SHRA IS FORECAST BETWEEN 15Z AND 23Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 220513
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1213 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
WEST. RADAR IMAGERY...REGIONAL AND LOCAL...SHOWS INCREASING AREAS
OF REFLECTIVITY`S DEVELOPING...MOST OF WHICH IS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
BEING SAMPLED AND INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER
BOWMAN RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS IN FAR EASTERN MONTANA WITH
POCKETS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HONE IN ON THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...AND THEN INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AT TIMES ARE EXPECTED MID MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND CONCUR WITH THIS AS THEY WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND NON-SEVERE. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
DURING THE PAST HOUR. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD
EAST OVER THE STATE TONIGHT IN AN AREA OF ELEVATED CAPE AHEAD OF
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PIVOTING INTO EASTERN MONTANA. ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER
ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. ITS PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL LAG BEHIND
AND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...DELAYED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ROBUST CAP IN PLACE AS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVERSPREADS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE SHOWALTER INDEX TRENDS NEGATIVE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SOUTHEAST. THIS LAYER ABOVE THE CAP COULD
RESULT IN ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TRIED TO FIT THE POPS WITH THE BEST FORCING FOR LIFT. ENDED UP
FOCUSING ON THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 60S WHICH IS 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE MOUNTAIN
WEST. OF COURSE BEING NEARLY A WEEK WAY...GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY
ON PRECIP CHANCES AND PLACEMENT.

TEMPERATURE WISE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH KISN AND KDIK AS OF 06Z WEDNESDAY.
REST OF THE TERMINALS HAVE SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN
AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS NOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL SHIFT
TOWARD KISN/KDIK BY 13Z WEDNESDAY...AND INTO KMOT BY 18Z. THERE
COULD BE INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AT THESE TERMINALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH A VCSH OVER TH
AERODROMES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KJMS
WHERE PREDOMINANT -SHRA IS FORECAST BETWEEN 15Z AND 23Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS









000
FXUS63 KFGF 220447
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NOT TOO MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE LAST DISCUSSION WHICH STILL HOLDS.
GUIDANCE FROM MESOSCALE MODELS FAVORING POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ND/SD/MN BORDER AREA SO EXTENDED POPS INTO
THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

OVER THE NEXT TWO UPDATE PERIODS MONITORING FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS. RIBBON OF ELEVATED CAPE
PROPAGATING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS WELL AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET MAXIMA
FORMING OVER S CENTRAL SD. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING WHAT LOOKS TO BE
SOME HIGH BASED ACCAS OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND SOME RELATED
WEAK ECHOES STARTING TO SHOW UP. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO 06Z. AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS
BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR IF SOMETHING DEVELOPS A BIT
EARLIER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WINDS ARE THE ISSUE THIS EVENING. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY 00Z-06Z. WITH THE SETTING SUN THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASING INVERSION BUT STILL ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC TO KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTY ALL
NIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER WITH SOME AREAS OF
ERN ND STAYING ABOVE 50. SECOND ISSUE IS ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND 850 MB INSTABILITY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND THEN
EASTERN ND 09Z-12Z PERIOD. MOISTURE INITIALLY QUITE WEAK BUT PWATS
DO GO ABOVE 1 INCH BY 12Z IN THE RRV. MAIN FORCING AT THE SFC WEST
OF THE FCST AREA BUT NAM/GFS DO SO MUCAPES IN THE 500-700 J/KG
RANGE WITH NAM AROUND 1000 J/KG AT 12Z WED IN THE RRV. ALSO SEEING
A BAND OF 50 DEW PTS IN WRN KS INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA LIKELY HEADED
FOR ERN ND WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THIS 50 DEW PT AREA THERE WAS
SOME LOW CLOUDS. UNSURE IF THAT WILL OCCUR IN OUR AREA 12Z WED BUT
NONETHELESS CONDITIONS SET UP ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT IN PARTS OF ERN ND SPREADING INTO THE RRV TOWARD 12Z.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER THRU 18Z AS INSTABILITY RIBBON
(SHOWWALTERS IN THE -2C RANGE) MOVES INTO WRN MN. WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLD T INTO EARLY AFTN FOR FAR ERN FCST AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
AXIS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE AND THE TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING THRU. COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES YIELDED A BIT
FASTER SOLN THAN ECMWF AND MOST OF THE PRECIP EXITS THE EASTERN
FCST AREA NR 06Z THU.

AMOUNT OF RAINFALL NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH MOST SITES UNDER ONE
QUARTER INCH...THOUGH HEAVIER TOTALS APPROACHING ONE HALF INCH
PSBL IN WCNTRL-NCNTRL MN ZONE FROM FERGUS FALLS TO BEMIDJI MAINLY
WED MID TO LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEARING WILL WORK IN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN
WEST. ANY 850 MB COOLING WILL BE NEGATED BY A FAVORABLE WEST WIND
WHICH IS GOOD FOR WARM SFC TEMPS. THUS NO COOLING EXPECTED FOR
THU. WEST WIND AND WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ON FRIDAY FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN CHC PCPN MONDAY/TUESDAY AS 500MB RIDGING
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH APPROACHING LONG WAVE
TROUGH. TEMPS WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL...60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH STRONG FROPA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO 50 FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRIMARILY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
SPOTTY ELEVATED T POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT OTHERWISE MAIN PCPN BAND WILL CROSS DVL MID
MORNING...VALLEY AROUND 18Z AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 220447
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NOT TOO MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE LAST DISCUSSION WHICH STILL HOLDS.
GUIDANCE FROM MESOSCALE MODELS FAVORING POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ND/SD/MN BORDER AREA SO EXTENDED POPS INTO
THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

OVER THE NEXT TWO UPDATE PERIODS MONITORING FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS. RIBBON OF ELEVATED CAPE
PROPAGATING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS WELL AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET MAXIMA
FORMING OVER S CENTRAL SD. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING WHAT LOOKS TO BE
SOME HIGH BASED ACCAS OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND SOME RELATED
WEAK ECHOES STARTING TO SHOW UP. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO 06Z. AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS
BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR IF SOMETHING DEVELOPS A BIT
EARLIER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WINDS ARE THE ISSUE THIS EVENING. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY 00Z-06Z. WITH THE SETTING SUN THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASING INVERSION BUT STILL ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC TO KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTY ALL
NIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER WITH SOME AREAS OF
ERN ND STAYING ABOVE 50. SECOND ISSUE IS ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND 850 MB INSTABILITY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND THEN
EASTERN ND 09Z-12Z PERIOD. MOISTURE INITIALLY QUITE WEAK BUT PWATS
DO GO ABOVE 1 INCH BY 12Z IN THE RRV. MAIN FORCING AT THE SFC WEST
OF THE FCST AREA BUT NAM/GFS DO SO MUCAPES IN THE 500-700 J/KG
RANGE WITH NAM AROUND 1000 J/KG AT 12Z WED IN THE RRV. ALSO SEEING
A BAND OF 50 DEW PTS IN WRN KS INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA LIKELY HEADED
FOR ERN ND WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THIS 50 DEW PT AREA THERE WAS
SOME LOW CLOUDS. UNSURE IF THAT WILL OCCUR IN OUR AREA 12Z WED BUT
NONETHELESS CONDITIONS SET UP ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT IN PARTS OF ERN ND SPREADING INTO THE RRV TOWARD 12Z.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER THRU 18Z AS INSTABILITY RIBBON
(SHOWWALTERS IN THE -2C RANGE) MOVES INTO WRN MN. WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLD T INTO EARLY AFTN FOR FAR ERN FCST AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
AXIS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE AND THE TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING THRU. COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES YIELDED A BIT
FASTER SOLN THAN ECMWF AND MOST OF THE PRECIP EXITS THE EASTERN
FCST AREA NR 06Z THU.

AMOUNT OF RAINFALL NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH MOST SITES UNDER ONE
QUARTER INCH...THOUGH HEAVIER TOTALS APPROACHING ONE HALF INCH
PSBL IN WCNTRL-NCNTRL MN ZONE FROM FERGUS FALLS TO BEMIDJI MAINLY
WED MID TO LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEARING WILL WORK IN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN
WEST. ANY 850 MB COOLING WILL BE NEGATED BY A FAVORABLE WEST WIND
WHICH IS GOOD FOR WARM SFC TEMPS. THUS NO COOLING EXPECTED FOR
THU. WEST WIND AND WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ON FRIDAY FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN CHC PCPN MONDAY/TUESDAY AS 500MB RIDGING
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH APPROACHING LONG WAVE
TROUGH. TEMPS WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL...60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH STRONG FROPA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO 50 FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRIMARILY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
SPOTTY ELEVATED T POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT OTHERWISE MAIN PCPN BAND WILL CROSS DVL MID
MORNING...VALLEY AROUND 18Z AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 220246
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
946 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
DURING THE PAST HOUR. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD
EAST OVER THE STATE TONIGHT IN AN AREA OF ELEVATED CAPE AHEAD OF
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PIVOTING INTO EASTERN MONTANA. ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER
ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. ITS PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL LAG BEHIND
AND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...DELAYED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ROBUST CAP IN PLACE AS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVERSPREADS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE SHOWALTER INDEX TRENDS NEGATIVE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SOUTHEAST. THIS LAYER ABOVE THE CAP COULD
RESULT IN ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TRIED TO FIT THE POPS WITH THE BEST FORCING FOR LIFT. ENDED UP
FOCUSING ON THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 60S WHICH IS 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE MOUNTAIN
WEST. OF COURSE BEING NEARLY A WEEK WAY...GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY
ON PRECIP CHANCES AND PLACEMENT.

TEMPERATURE WISE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE STATE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. THE
HIGHEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER KDIK. SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 220246
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
946 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
DURING THE PAST HOUR. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD
EAST OVER THE STATE TONIGHT IN AN AREA OF ELEVATED CAPE AHEAD OF
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PIVOTING INTO EASTERN MONTANA. ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER
ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. ITS PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL LAG BEHIND
AND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...DELAYED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ROBUST CAP IN PLACE AS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVERSPREADS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE SHOWALTER INDEX TRENDS NEGATIVE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SOUTHEAST. THIS LAYER ABOVE THE CAP COULD
RESULT IN ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TRIED TO FIT THE POPS WITH THE BEST FORCING FOR LIFT. ENDED UP
FOCUSING ON THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 60S WHICH IS 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE MOUNTAIN
WEST. OF COURSE BEING NEARLY A WEEK WAY...GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY
ON PRECIP CHANCES AND PLACEMENT.

TEMPERATURE WISE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE STATE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. THE
HIGHEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER KDIK. SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KFGF 220245
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
945 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

OVER THE NEXT TWO UPDATE PERIODS MONITORING FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS. RIBBON OF ELEVATED CAPE
PROPAGATING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS WELL AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET MAXIMA
FORMING OVER S CENTRAL SD. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING WHAT LOOKS TO BE
SOME HIGH BASED ACCAS OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND SOME RELATED
WEAK ECHOES STARTING TO SHOW UP. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO 06Z. AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS
BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR IF SOMETHING DEVELOPS A BIT
EARLIER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WINDS ARE THE ISSUE THIS EVENING. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY 00Z-06Z. WITH THE SETTING SUN THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASING INVERSION BUT STILL ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC TO KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTY ALL
NIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER WITH SOME AREAS OF
ERN ND STAYING ABOVE 50. SECOND ISSUE IS ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND 850 MB INSTABILITY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND THEN
EASTERN ND 09Z-12Z PERIOD. MOISTURE INITIALLY QUITE WEAK BUT PWATS
DO GO ABOVE 1 INCH BY 12Z IN THE RRV. MAIN FORCING AT THE SFC WEST
OF THE FCST AREA BUT NAM/GFS DO SO MUCAPES IN THE 500-700 J/KG
RANGE WITH NAM AROUND 1000 J/KG AT 12Z WED IN THE RRV. ALSO SEEING
A BAND OF 50 DEW PTS IN WRN KS INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA LIKELY HEADED
FOR ERN ND WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THIS 50 DEW PT AREA THERE WAS
SOME LOW CLOUDS. UNSURE IF THAT WILL OCCUR IN OUR AREA 12Z WED BUT
NONETHELESS CONDITIONS SET UP ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT IN PARTS OF ERN ND SPREADING INTO THE RRV TOWARD 12Z.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER THRU 18Z AS INSTABILITY RIBBON
(SHOWWALTERS IN THE -2C RANGE) MOVES INTO WRN MN. WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLD T INTO EARLY AFTN FOR FAR ERN FCST AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
AXIS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE AND THE TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING THRU. COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES YIELDED A BIT
FASTER SOLN THAN ECMWF AND MOST OF THE PRECIP EXITS THE EASTERN
FCST AREA NR 06Z THU.

AMOUNT OF RAINFALL NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH MOST SITES UNDER ONE
QUARTER INCH...THOUGH HEAVIER TOTALS APPROACHING ONE HALF INCH
PSBL IN WCNTRL-NCNTRL MN ZONE FROM FERGUS FALLS TO BEMIDJI MAINLY
WED MID TO LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEARING WILL WORK IN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN
WEST. ANY 850 MB COOLING WILL BE NEGATED BY A FAVORABLE WEST WIND
WHICH IS GOOD FOR WARM SFC TEMPS. THUS NO COOLING EXPECTED FOR
THU. WEST WIND AND WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ON FRIDAY FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN CHC PCPN MONDAY/TUESDAY AS 500MB RIDGING
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH APPROACHING LONG WAVE
TROUGH. TEMPS WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL...60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH STRONG FROPA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO 50 FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDY MOST OF THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL ELEVATED CONVECTION TOWARDS MORNING SO
LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. WILL BE SEEING AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS AS FRONT APPROACHES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 220245
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
945 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

OVER THE NEXT TWO UPDATE PERIODS MONITORING FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS. RIBBON OF ELEVATED CAPE
PROPAGATING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS WELL AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET MAXIMA
FORMING OVER S CENTRAL SD. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING WHAT LOOKS TO BE
SOME HIGH BASED ACCAS OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND SOME RELATED
WEAK ECHOES STARTING TO SHOW UP. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO 06Z. AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS
BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR IF SOMETHING DEVELOPS A BIT
EARLIER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WINDS ARE THE ISSUE THIS EVENING. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY 00Z-06Z. WITH THE SETTING SUN THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASING INVERSION BUT STILL ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC TO KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTY ALL
NIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER WITH SOME AREAS OF
ERN ND STAYING ABOVE 50. SECOND ISSUE IS ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND 850 MB INSTABILITY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND THEN
EASTERN ND 09Z-12Z PERIOD. MOISTURE INITIALLY QUITE WEAK BUT PWATS
DO GO ABOVE 1 INCH BY 12Z IN THE RRV. MAIN FORCING AT THE SFC WEST
OF THE FCST AREA BUT NAM/GFS DO SO MUCAPES IN THE 500-700 J/KG
RANGE WITH NAM AROUND 1000 J/KG AT 12Z WED IN THE RRV. ALSO SEEING
A BAND OF 50 DEW PTS IN WRN KS INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA LIKELY HEADED
FOR ERN ND WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THIS 50 DEW PT AREA THERE WAS
SOME LOW CLOUDS. UNSURE IF THAT WILL OCCUR IN OUR AREA 12Z WED BUT
NONETHELESS CONDITIONS SET UP ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT IN PARTS OF ERN ND SPREADING INTO THE RRV TOWARD 12Z.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER THRU 18Z AS INSTABILITY RIBBON
(SHOWWALTERS IN THE -2C RANGE) MOVES INTO WRN MN. WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLD T INTO EARLY AFTN FOR FAR ERN FCST AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
AXIS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE AND THE TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING THRU. COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES YIELDED A BIT
FASTER SOLN THAN ECMWF AND MOST OF THE PRECIP EXITS THE EASTERN
FCST AREA NR 06Z THU.

AMOUNT OF RAINFALL NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH MOST SITES UNDER ONE
QUARTER INCH...THOUGH HEAVIER TOTALS APPROACHING ONE HALF INCH
PSBL IN WCNTRL-NCNTRL MN ZONE FROM FERGUS FALLS TO BEMIDJI MAINLY
WED MID TO LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEARING WILL WORK IN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN
WEST. ANY 850 MB COOLING WILL BE NEGATED BY A FAVORABLE WEST WIND
WHICH IS GOOD FOR WARM SFC TEMPS. THUS NO COOLING EXPECTED FOR
THU. WEST WIND AND WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ON FRIDAY FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN CHC PCPN MONDAY/TUESDAY AS 500MB RIDGING
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH APPROACHING LONG WAVE
TROUGH. TEMPS WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL...60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH STRONG FROPA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO 50 FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDY MOST OF THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL ELEVATED CONVECTION TOWARDS MORNING SO
LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. WILL BE SEEING AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS AS FRONT APPROACHES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 212352
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
652 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. ITS PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL LAG BEHIND
AND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...DELAYED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ROBUST CAP IN PLACE AS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVERSPREADS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE SHOWALTER INDEX TRENDS NEGATIVE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SOUTHEAST. THIS LAYER ABOVE THE CAP COULD
RESULT IN ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TRIED TO FIT THE POPS WITH THE BEST FORCING FOR LIFT. ENDED UP
FOCUSING ON THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 60S WHICH IS 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE MOUNTAIN
WEST. OF COURSE BEING NEARLY A WEEK WAY...GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY
ON PRECIP CHANCES AND PLACEMENT.

TEMPERATURE WISE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE STATE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. THE
HIGHEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER KDIK. SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KFGF 212331
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
631 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WINDS ARE THE ISSUE THIS EVENING. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY 00Z-06Z. WITH THE SETTING SUN THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASING INVERSION BUT STILL ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC TO KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTY ALL
NIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER WITH SOME AREAS OF
ERN ND STAYING ABOVE 50. SECOND ISSUE IS ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND 850 MB INSTABILITY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND THEN
EASTERN ND 09Z-12Z PERIOD. MOISTURE INITIALLY QUITE WEAK BUT PWATS
DO GO ABOVE 1 INCH BY 12Z IN THE RRV. MAIN FORCING AT THE SFC WEST
OF THE FCST AREA BUT NAM/GFS DO SO MUCAPES IN THE 500-700 J/KG
RANGE WITH NAM AROUND 1000 J/KG AT 12Z WED IN THE RRV. ALSO SEEING
A BAND OF 50 DEW PTS IN WRN KS INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA LIKELY HEADED
FOR ERN ND WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THIS 50 DEW PT AREA THERE WAS
SOME LOW CLOUDS. UNSURE IF THAT WILL OCCUR IN OUR AREA 12Z WED BUT
NONETHELESS CONDITIONS SET UP ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT IN PARTS OF ERN ND SPREADING INTO THE RRV TOWARD 12Z.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER THRU 18Z AS INSTABILITY RIBBON
(SHOWWALTERS IN THE -2C RANGE) MOVES INTO WRN MN. WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLD T INTO EARLY AFTN FOR FAR ERN FCST AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
AXIS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE AND THE TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING THRU. COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES YIELDED A BIT
FASTER SOLN THAN ECMWF AND MOST OF THE PRECIP EXITS THE EASTERN
FCST AREA NR 06Z THU.

AMOUNT OF RAINFALL NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH MOST SITES UNDER ONE
QUARTER INCH...THOUGH HEAVIER TOTALS APPROACHING ONE HALF INCH
PSBL IN WCNTRL-NCNTRL MN ZONE FROM FERGUS FALLS TO BEMIDJI MAINLY
WED MID TO LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEARING WILL WORK IN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN
WEST. ANY 850 MB COOLING WILL BE NEGATED BY A FAVORABLE WEST WIND
WHICH IS GOOD FOR WARM SFC TEMPS. THUS NO COOLING EXPECTED FOR
THU. WEST WIND AND WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ON FRIDAY FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN CHC PCPN MONDAY/TUESDAY AS 500MB RIDGING
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH APPROACHING LONG WAVE
TROUGH. TEMPS WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL...60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH STRONG FROPA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO 50 FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDY MOST OF THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL ELEVATED CONVECTION TOWARDS MORNING SO
LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. WILL BE SEEING AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS AS FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 212049
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ROBUST CAP IN PLACE AS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVERSPREADS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE SHOWALTER INDEX TRENDS NEGATIVE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SOUTHEAST. THIS LAYER ABOVE THE CAP COULD
RESULT IN ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TRIED TO FIT THE POPS WITH THE BEST FORCING FOR LIFT. ENDED UP
FOCUSING ON THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 60S WHICH IS 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE MOUNTAIN
WEST. OF COURSE BEING NEARLY A WEEK WAY...GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY
ON PRECIP CHANCES AND PLACEMENT.

TEMPERATURE WISE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN EASTERN
MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY NOON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST WITH THE
FRONT AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA









000
FXUS63 KFGF 212024
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
324 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WINDS ARE THE ISSUE THIS EVENING. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY 00Z-06Z. WITH THE SETTING SUN THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASING INVERSION BUT STILL ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC TO KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTY ALL
NIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER WITH SOME AREAS OF
ERN ND STAYING ABOVE 50. SECOND ISSUE IS ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND 850 MB INSTABILITY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND THEN
EASTERN ND 09Z-12Z PERIOD. MOISTURE INITIALLY QUITE WEAK BUT PWATS
DO GO ABOVE 1 INCH BY 12Z IN THE RRV. MAIN FORCING AT THE SFC WEST
OF THE FCST AREA BUT NAM/GFS DO SO MUCAPES IN THE 500-700 J/KG
RANGE WITH NAM AROUND 1000 J/KG AT 12Z WED IN THE RRV. ALSO SEEING
A BAND OF 50 DEW PTS IN WRN KS INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA LIKELY HEADED
FOR ERN ND WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THIS 50 DEW PT AREA THERE WAS
SOME LOW CLOUDS. UNSURE IF THAT WILL OCCUR IN OUR AREA 12Z WED BUT
NONETHELESS CONDITIONS SET UP ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT IN PARTS OF ERN ND SPREADING INTO THE RRV TOWARD 12Z.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER THRU 18Z AS INSTABILITY RIBBON
(SHOWWALTERS IN THE -2C RANGE) MOVES INTO WRN MN. WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLD T INTO EARLY AFTN FOR FAR ERN FCST AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
AXIS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE AND THE TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING THRU. COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES YIELDED A BIT
FASTER SOLN THAN ECMWF AND MOST OF THE PRECIP EXITS THE EASTERN
FCST AREA NR 06Z THU.

AMOUNT OF RAINFALL NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH MOST SITES UNDER ONE
QUARTER INCH...THOUGH HEAVIER TOTALS APPROACHING ONE HALF INCH
PSBL IN WCNTRL-NCNTRL MN ZONE FROM FERGUS FALLS TO BEMIDJI MAINLY
WED MID TO LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEARING WILL WORK IN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN
WEST. ANY 850 MB COOLING WILL BE NEGATED BY A FAVORABLE WEST WIND
WHICH IS GOOD FOR WARM SFC TEMPS. THUS NO COOLING EXPECTED FOR
THU. WEST WIND AND WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ON FRIDAY FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN CHC PCPN MONDAY/TUESDAY AS 500MB RIDGING
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH APPROACHING LONG WAVE
TROUGH. TEMPS WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL...60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH STRONG FROPA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO 50 FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

STRONG SE WINDS 18 TO 25KTS GUSTING HIGHER IN THE VALLEY AROUND
35KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS STAY RELATIVELY HIGH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS AT GFK AND FAR. BKN MID TO HIGH CIGS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 211800
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
100 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ALL GOING AS SCHEDULED WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS IN ERN ND/RRV. CLEAR SKY. DID GO WITH SLIGHT CHC TRW- IN
THE GRIDS FOR LATE TONIGHT. WILL PROB HAVE TO ADD THEM TO WED AM
12Z-18Z PERIOD AS WELL TO PARTS OF THE RRV/NW MN AS NEGATIVE
SHOWWALTERS AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MU CAPES 500 OR A BIT
HIGHER MOVE THRU.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

STRONG SE WINDS 18 TO 25KTS GUSTING HIGHER IN THE VALLEY AROUND
35KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS STAY RELATIVELY HIGH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS AT GFK AND FAR. BKN MID TO HIGH CIGS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...JK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 211738
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1238 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SUNNY AND VERY MILD TODAY. BREEZY EAST. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING
WELL WITH NO SIG UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SUNNY AND VERY MILD TODAY WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND. ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WILL KEEP A STRONG CAP AROUND 2500 FEET AGL. THIS WILL LIMIT
MIXING. STILL...WITH MIN TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS TODAY DESPITE
MIXING ISSUE. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT OVER THE SOUTHWEST BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTH INTO MANITOBA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF LEADING SHORTWAVES BETWEEN
MONTANA AND WYOMING GENERATING LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WAS SEEN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHERN OREGON.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
SPLIT BETWEEN THE SHALLOWER/WEAKER NAM AND MUCH HIGHER/STRONGER
GFS. HENCE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS FOLLOW THE SAME SCENARIO. WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...USUALLY
MORE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN/SUSTAIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PAST
EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN TAKEN A BLEND BETWEEN THE WEAKER NAM AND
STRONGER GFS VERIFIES BETTER THAN TAKING EITHER SOLUTION. THUS
EXPECT THE STRONGEST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. WINDS TAPER OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER WEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMING UP FROM THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING EAST THEREAFTER. MOST LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AREA...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY/EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED STRIKE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE EVENING
TIME PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AND DELAYED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL ZONES. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
70S EAST CENTRAL AND MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FRO THE MID 40S WEST TO
LOWER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...TROF WITH BASE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRIES TO CLOSE OFF OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONGEST LIFT
REMAINING NORTH AND EAST WILL KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINTING AT NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AVIATION
EXPECTED. VFR THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 211455
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED. 12Z NAM SHOWS STRONGEST 925 MB WINDS (50 KTS)
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY 00Z-06Z AND AT THIS TIME THE INVERSION
WILL BE SETTING UP. DURING THE TIME OF MAX HEATING WINDS TO MIX
ARE IN THE 35KT RANGE...A TAD HIGHER UP AROUND HALLOCK-PEMBINA.
THUS FORSEE WINDY CONDITIONS BUT JUST BLO ADVISORY LEVELS.
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS SMALL AREA AROUND PEMBINA-HALLOCK. FULL SUN
TODAY AND TEMPS APPEAR OK. &&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 35KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 211455
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED. 12Z NAM SHOWS STRONGEST 925 MB WINDS (50 KTS)
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY 00Z-06Z AND AT THIS TIME THE INVERSION
WILL BE SETTING UP. DURING THE TIME OF MAX HEATING WINDS TO MIX
ARE IN THE 35KT RANGE...A TAD HIGHER UP AROUND HALLOCK-PEMBINA.
THUS FORSEE WINDY CONDITIONS BUT JUST BLO ADVISORY LEVELS.
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS SMALL AREA AROUND PEMBINA-HALLOCK. FULL SUN
TODAY AND TEMPS APPEAR OK. &&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 35KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 211449
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SUNNY AND VERY MILD TODAY WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND. ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WILL KEEP A STRONG CAP AROUND 2500 FEET AGL. THIS WILL LIMIT
MIXING. STILL...WITH MIN TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS TODAY DESPITE
MIXING ISSUE. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT OVER THE SOUTHWEST BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTH INTO MANITOBA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF LEADING SHORTWAVES BETWEEN
MONTANA AND WYOMING GENERATING LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WAS SEEN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHERN OREGON.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
SPLIT BETWEEN THE SHALLOWER/WEAKER NAM AND MUCH HIGHER/STRONGER
GFS. HENCE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS FOLLOW THE SAME SCENARIO. WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...USUALLY
MORE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN/SUSTAIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PAST
EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN TAKEN A BLEND BETWEEN THE WEAKER NAM AND
STRONGER GFS VERIFIES BETTER THAN TAKING EITHER SOLUTION. THUS
EXPECT THE STRONGEST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. WINDS TAPER OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER WEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMING UP FROM THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING EAST THEREAFTER. MOST LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AREA...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY/EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED STRIKE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE EVENING
TIME PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AND DELAYED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL ZONES. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
70S EAST CENTRAL AND MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FRO THE MID 40S WEST TO
LOWER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...TROF WITH BASE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRIES TO CLOSE OFF OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONGEST LIFT
REMAINING NORTH AND EAST WILL KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINTING AT NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DRY SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THOUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 211449
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SUNNY AND VERY MILD TODAY WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND. ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WILL KEEP A STRONG CAP AROUND 2500 FEET AGL. THIS WILL LIMIT
MIXING. STILL...WITH MIN TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS TODAY DESPITE
MIXING ISSUE. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT OVER THE SOUTHWEST BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTH INTO MANITOBA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF LEADING SHORTWAVES BETWEEN
MONTANA AND WYOMING GENERATING LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WAS SEEN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHERN OREGON.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
SPLIT BETWEEN THE SHALLOWER/WEAKER NAM AND MUCH HIGHER/STRONGER
GFS. HENCE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS FOLLOW THE SAME SCENARIO. WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...USUALLY
MORE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN/SUSTAIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PAST
EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN TAKEN A BLEND BETWEEN THE WEAKER NAM AND
STRONGER GFS VERIFIES BETTER THAN TAKING EITHER SOLUTION. THUS
EXPECT THE STRONGEST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. WINDS TAPER OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER WEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMING UP FROM THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING EAST THEREAFTER. MOST LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AREA...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY/EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED STRIKE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE EVENING
TIME PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AND DELAYED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL ZONES. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
70S EAST CENTRAL AND MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FRO THE MID 40S WEST TO
LOWER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...TROF WITH BASE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRIES TO CLOSE OFF OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONGEST LIFT
REMAINING NORTH AND EAST WILL KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINTING AT NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DRY SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THOUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 211114
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
614 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WITH FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 35KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 211114
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
614 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WITH FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 35KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 211114
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
614 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WITH FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 35KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 211114
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
614 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WITH FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 35KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 211114
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
614 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WITH FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 35KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 211114
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
614 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WITH FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 35KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KBIS 211050
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
550 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT OVER THE SOUTHWEST BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTH INTO MANITOBA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF LEADING SHORTWAVES BETWEEN
MONTANA AND WYOMING GENERATING LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WAS SEEN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHERN OREGON.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
SPLIT BETWEEN THE SHALLOWER/WEAKER NAM AND MUCH HIGHER/STRONGER
GFS. HENCE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS FOLLOW THE SAME SCENARIO. WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...USUALLY
MORE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN/SUSTAIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PAST
EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN TAKEN A BLEND BETWEEN THE WEAKER NAM AND
STRONGER GFS VERIFIES BETTER THAN TAKING EITHER SOLUTION. THUS
EXPECT THE STRONGEST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. WINDS TAPER OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER WEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMING UP FROM THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING EAST THEREAFTER. MOST LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AREA...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY/EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED STRIKE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE EVENING
TIME PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AND DELAYED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL ZONES. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
70S EAST CENTRAL AND MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FRO THE MID 40S WEST TO
LOWER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...TROF WITH BASE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRIES TO CLOSE OFF OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONGEST LIFT
REMAINING NORTH AND EAST WILL KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINTING AT NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS THROUGH 20Z
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH KISN/KDIK BETWEEN 06Z-09Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN
INTO KMOT/KBIS 12Z WEDNESDAY. A VCSH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WAS INCLUDED AT KISN/KMOT/KBIS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 211050
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
550 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT OVER THE SOUTHWEST BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTH INTO MANITOBA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF LEADING SHORTWAVES BETWEEN
MONTANA AND WYOMING GENERATING LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WAS SEEN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHERN OREGON.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
SPLIT BETWEEN THE SHALLOWER/WEAKER NAM AND MUCH HIGHER/STRONGER
GFS. HENCE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS FOLLOW THE SAME SCENARIO. WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...USUALLY
MORE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN/SUSTAIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PAST
EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN TAKEN A BLEND BETWEEN THE WEAKER NAM AND
STRONGER GFS VERIFIES BETTER THAN TAKING EITHER SOLUTION. THUS
EXPECT THE STRONGEST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. WINDS TAPER OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER WEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMING UP FROM THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING EAST THEREAFTER. MOST LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AREA...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY/EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED STRIKE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE EVENING
TIME PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AND DELAYED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL ZONES. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
70S EAST CENTRAL AND MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FRO THE MID 40S WEST TO
LOWER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...TROF WITH BASE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRIES TO CLOSE OFF OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONGEST LIFT
REMAINING NORTH AND EAST WILL KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINTING AT NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS THROUGH 20Z
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH KISN/KDIK BETWEEN 06Z-09Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN
INTO KMOT/KBIS 12Z WEDNESDAY. A VCSH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WAS INCLUDED AT KISN/KMOT/KBIS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 211050
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
550 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT OVER THE SOUTHWEST BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTH INTO MANITOBA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF LEADING SHORTWAVES BETWEEN
MONTANA AND WYOMING GENERATING LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WAS SEEN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHERN OREGON.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
SPLIT BETWEEN THE SHALLOWER/WEAKER NAM AND MUCH HIGHER/STRONGER
GFS. HENCE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS FOLLOW THE SAME SCENARIO. WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...USUALLY
MORE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN/SUSTAIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PAST
EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN TAKEN A BLEND BETWEEN THE WEAKER NAM AND
STRONGER GFS VERIFIES BETTER THAN TAKING EITHER SOLUTION. THUS
EXPECT THE STRONGEST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. WINDS TAPER OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER WEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMING UP FROM THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING EAST THEREAFTER. MOST LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AREA...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY/EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED STRIKE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE EVENING
TIME PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AND DELAYED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL ZONES. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
70S EAST CENTRAL AND MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FRO THE MID 40S WEST TO
LOWER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...TROF WITH BASE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRIES TO CLOSE OFF OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONGEST LIFT
REMAINING NORTH AND EAST WILL KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINTING AT NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS THROUGH 20Z
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH KISN/KDIK BETWEEN 06Z-09Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN
INTO KMOT/KBIS 12Z WEDNESDAY. A VCSH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WAS INCLUDED AT KISN/KMOT/KBIS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 211050
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
550 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT OVER THE SOUTHWEST BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTH INTO MANITOBA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF LEADING SHORTWAVES BETWEEN
MONTANA AND WYOMING GENERATING LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WAS SEEN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHERN OREGON.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
SPLIT BETWEEN THE SHALLOWER/WEAKER NAM AND MUCH HIGHER/STRONGER
GFS. HENCE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS FOLLOW THE SAME SCENARIO. WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...USUALLY
MORE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN/SUSTAIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PAST
EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN TAKEN A BLEND BETWEEN THE WEAKER NAM AND
STRONGER GFS VERIFIES BETTER THAN TAKING EITHER SOLUTION. THUS
EXPECT THE STRONGEST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. WINDS TAPER OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER WEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMING UP FROM THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING EAST THEREAFTER. MOST LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AREA...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY/EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED STRIKE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE EVENING
TIME PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AND DELAYED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL ZONES. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
70S EAST CENTRAL AND MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FRO THE MID 40S WEST TO
LOWER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...TROF WITH BASE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRIES TO CLOSE OFF OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONGEST LIFT
REMAINING NORTH AND EAST WILL KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINTING AT NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS THROUGH 20Z
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH KISN/KDIK BETWEEN 06Z-09Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN
INTO KMOT/KBIS 12Z WEDNESDAY. A VCSH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WAS INCLUDED AT KISN/KMOT/KBIS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 210900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED. SE
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW BECOMING WINDY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 KTS PSBL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 210900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED. SE
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW BECOMING WINDY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 KTS PSBL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 210817
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTH INTO MANITOBA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF LEADING SHORTWAVES BETWEEN
MONTANA AND WYOMING GENERATING LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WAS SEEN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHERN OREGON.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
SPLIT BETWEEN THE SHALLOWER/WEAKER NAM AND MUCH HIGHER/STRONGER
GFS. HENCE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS FOLLOW THE SAME SCENARIO. WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...USUALLY
MORE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN/SUSTAIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PAST
EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN TAKEN A BLEND BETWEEN THE WEAKER NAM AND
STRONGER GFS VERIFIES BETTER THAN TAKING EITHER SOLUTION. THUS
EXPECT THE STRONGEST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. WINDS TAPER OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER WEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMING UP FROM THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING EAST THEREAFTER. MOST LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AREA...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY/EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED STRIKE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE EVENING
TIME PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AND DELAYED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL ZONES. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
70S EAST CENTRAL AND MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FRO THE MID 40S WEST TO
LOWER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...TROF WITH BASE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRIES TO CLOSE OFF OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONGEST LIFT
REMAINING NORTH AND EAST WILL KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINTING AT NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN IN VFR STATUS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 210817
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTH INTO MANITOBA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF LEADING SHORTWAVES BETWEEN
MONTANA AND WYOMING GENERATING LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WAS SEEN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHERN OREGON.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
SPLIT BETWEEN THE SHALLOWER/WEAKER NAM AND MUCH HIGHER/STRONGER
GFS. HENCE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS FOLLOW THE SAME SCENARIO. WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...USUALLY
MORE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN/SUSTAIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PAST
EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN TAKEN A BLEND BETWEEN THE WEAKER NAM AND
STRONGER GFS VERIFIES BETTER THAN TAKING EITHER SOLUTION. THUS
EXPECT THE STRONGEST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. WINDS TAPER OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER WEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMING UP FROM THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING EAST THEREAFTER. MOST LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AREA...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY/EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED STRIKE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE EVENING
TIME PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AND DELAYED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL ZONES. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
70S EAST CENTRAL AND MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FRO THE MID 40S WEST TO
LOWER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...TROF WITH BASE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRIES TO CLOSE OFF OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONGEST LIFT
REMAINING NORTH AND EAST WILL KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINTING AT NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN IN VFR STATUS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS







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