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000
FXUS63 KBIS 011510
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1010 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM FOG WERE IMPROVING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LINGERING
LOW VISIBILITIES AT CROSBY ARE LIKELY VERY LOCALIZED AND WILL BE
ALLOWING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM CDT.

OTHERWISE LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING...BUT
KEPT THE SCATTERED MENTION FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES AND AN APPROACHING JET STREAK TO ENHANCE
INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRIMMED POPS A BIT AND INCREASED WHERE RADAR INDICATES
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOGGY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

CALM WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LED TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z FOR THESE
AREAS...AS HRRR ITERATIONS SUGGEST THAT LOW VISIBILITY WILL
LINGER UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND ALBERTA...FLATTENING THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE
SHOULD ARRIVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT JET STREAM LEVEL...A 70 KNOT SPEED MAX WILL
APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE.
THIS ORIENTATION SHOULD PLACE MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION...FURTHER PROMOTING CONVECTION. THAT BEING
SAID...FORECAST SURFACE FEATURES DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FORCING...SO MAGNITUDE OF COVERAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION. 00Z NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 500-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE COLLOCATED WITH 35-45 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN THE
WEST. THEREFORE...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM IN SAID ENVIRONMENT WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DUE TO COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE SEVERE WORDING OUT OF THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THURSDAY...LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SO WE WILL ONCE
AGAIN SEE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH A ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...BEST
CHANCES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE STALLED SFC TROUGH. WE THEN TREND
MAINLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY FINALLY MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
REPLACED BY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.

DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING
AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT - SUNDAY
NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN
DURING THE DAY EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHEN AND WHERE
MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COUPLED TOGETHER.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO FAR
NORTHWEST NEAR THE SFC TROUGH.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY. WARMING TREND TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS
RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WAS LOCATED OVER KISN AND KMOT EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH VLIFR VSBYS AND LIFR CIGS OBSERVED PERIODICALLY. LOW
CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG HAVE ALSO DROPPED KDIK INTO IFR CONDITIONS.
ALL OTHER SITES SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR/MVFR CATEGORIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO IMPROVE AT ALL SITES AFTER 15Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE BEFORE GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...ZH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 011510
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1010 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM FOG WERE IMPROVING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LINGERING
LOW VISIBILITIES AT CROSBY ARE LIKELY VERY LOCALIZED AND WILL BE
ALLOWING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM CDT.

OTHERWISE LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING...BUT
KEPT THE SCATTERED MENTION FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES AND AN APPROACHING JET STREAK TO ENHANCE
INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRIMMED POPS A BIT AND INCREASED WHERE RADAR INDICATES
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOGGY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

CALM WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LED TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z FOR THESE
AREAS...AS HRRR ITERATIONS SUGGEST THAT LOW VISIBILITY WILL
LINGER UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND ALBERTA...FLATTENING THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE
SHOULD ARRIVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT JET STREAM LEVEL...A 70 KNOT SPEED MAX WILL
APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE.
THIS ORIENTATION SHOULD PLACE MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION...FURTHER PROMOTING CONVECTION. THAT BEING
SAID...FORECAST SURFACE FEATURES DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FORCING...SO MAGNITUDE OF COVERAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION. 00Z NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 500-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE COLLOCATED WITH 35-45 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN THE
WEST. THEREFORE...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM IN SAID ENVIRONMENT WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DUE TO COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE SEVERE WORDING OUT OF THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THURSDAY...LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SO WE WILL ONCE
AGAIN SEE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH A ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...BEST
CHANCES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE STALLED SFC TROUGH. WE THEN TREND
MAINLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY FINALLY MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
REPLACED BY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.

DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING
AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT - SUNDAY
NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN
DURING THE DAY EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHEN AND WHERE
MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COUPLED TOGETHER.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO FAR
NORTHWEST NEAR THE SFC TROUGH.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY. WARMING TREND TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS
RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WAS LOCATED OVER KISN AND KMOT EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH VLIFR VSBYS AND LIFR CIGS OBSERVED PERIODICALLY. LOW
CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG HAVE ALSO DROPPED KDIK INTO IFR CONDITIONS.
ALL OTHER SITES SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR/MVFR CATEGORIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO IMPROVE AT ALL SITES AFTER 15Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE BEFORE GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...ZH


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KFGF 011427
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
927 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ALTHOUGH SMOKE CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE DID TRIM BACK ON CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FA THROUGH THE MORNING. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING AND/OR MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
ANTICIPATE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
THE ENTIRE FA WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...WITH ANY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALREADY
CUT BACK ON POPS FOR TODAY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...AND WILL LET A FEW MORE HRRR RUNS COME IN TO GAIN
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE BEFORE CUTTING BACK ON POPS AGAIN. IT DOES
APPEAR THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS THIS FA) WILL BE TOWARD 12Z THUR ACROSS SE ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT
IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THIS AREA BY 12Z. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE (FROM LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS STILL WELL
TO THE NW IN WESTERN CANADA). DID KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS
NEAR THE AREA. MOST SYNOPTIC TYPE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAR TOO WET
WITH PRECIP UNDER THIS CURRENT PATTERN...WITH THE CAM TYPE
GUIDANCE PERFORMING MUCH BETTER. FOLLOWING THIS GUIDANCE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SE ND TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY (PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN CANADA). AFTER THAT...THERE IS
ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
CANADA...POSSIBLY BRINING SCATTERED THUNDER TO THE NORTHERN FA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LOCATION OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY). A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITHIN POCKETS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH FOREST FIRE SMOKE MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE...WITH
VALUES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN FA DURING PEAK
HEATING ON FRIDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY SATURDAY WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE PEAK TIME.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING THE PAST TWO DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL TEMPS WARMEST ON
SATURDAY THEN A TAD COOLER SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AFFECTING
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING. SMOKE
FROM THE CANADIAN WILD FIRES NOT EXPECTED TO RESTRICT VSBY BELOW
6SM. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LOWERED...AND
LIKELY WILL NOT OCCUR (IF THEY DID COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED
ANYWAY).


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 011427
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
927 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ALTHOUGH SMOKE CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE DID TRIM BACK ON CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FA THROUGH THE MORNING. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING AND/OR MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
ANTICIPATE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
THE ENTIRE FA WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...WITH ANY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALREADY
CUT BACK ON POPS FOR TODAY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...AND WILL LET A FEW MORE HRRR RUNS COME IN TO GAIN
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE BEFORE CUTTING BACK ON POPS AGAIN. IT DOES
APPEAR THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS THIS FA) WILL BE TOWARD 12Z THUR ACROSS SE ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT
IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THIS AREA BY 12Z. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE (FROM LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS STILL WELL
TO THE NW IN WESTERN CANADA). DID KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS
NEAR THE AREA. MOST SYNOPTIC TYPE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAR TOO WET
WITH PRECIP UNDER THIS CURRENT PATTERN...WITH THE CAM TYPE
GUIDANCE PERFORMING MUCH BETTER. FOLLOWING THIS GUIDANCE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SE ND TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY (PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN CANADA). AFTER THAT...THERE IS
ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
CANADA...POSSIBLY BRINING SCATTERED THUNDER TO THE NORTHERN FA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LOCATION OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY). A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITHIN POCKETS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH FOREST FIRE SMOKE MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE...WITH
VALUES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN FA DURING PEAK
HEATING ON FRIDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY SATURDAY WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE PEAK TIME.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING THE PAST TWO DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL TEMPS WARMEST ON
SATURDAY THEN A TAD COOLER SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AFFECTING
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING. SMOKE
FROM THE CANADIAN WILD FIRES NOT EXPECTED TO RESTRICT VSBY BELOW
6SM. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LOWERED...AND
LIKELY WILL NOT OCCUR (IF THEY DID COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED
ANYWAY).


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG



000
FXUS63 KFGF 011135
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING AND/OR MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
ANTICIPATE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
THE ENTIRE FA WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...WITH ANY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALREADY
CUT BACK ON POPS FOR TODAY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...AND WILL LET A FEW MORE HRRR RUNS COME IN TO GAIN
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE BEFORE CUTTING BACK ON POPS AGAIN. IT DOES
APPEAR THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS THIS FA) WILL BE TOWARD 12Z THUR ACROSS SE ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT
IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THIS AREA BY 12Z. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE (FROM LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS STILL WELL
TO THE NW IN WESTERN CANADA). DID KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS
NEAR THE AREA. MOST SYNOPTIC TYPE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAR TOO WET
WITH PRECIP UNDER THIS CURRENT PATTERN...WITH THE CAM TYPE
GUIDANCE PERFORMING MUCH BETTER. FOLLOWING THIS GUIDANCE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SE ND TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY (PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN CANADA). AFTER THAT...THERE IS
ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
CANADA...POSSIBLY BRINING SCATTERED THUNDER TO THE NORTHERN FA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LOCATION OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY). A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITHIN POCKETS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH FOREST FIRE SMOKE MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE...WITH
VALUES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN FA DURING PEAK
HEATING ON FRIDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY SATURDAY WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE PEAK TIME.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING THE PAST TWO DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL TEMPS WARMEST ON
SATURDAY THEN A TAD COOLER SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AFFECTING
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING. SMOKE
FROM THE CANADIAN WILD FIRES NOT EXPECTED TO RESTRICT VSBY BELOW
6SM. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LOWERED...AND
LIKELY WILL NOT OCCUR (IF THEY DID COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED
ANYWAY).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 011135
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING AND/OR MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
ANTICIPATE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
THE ENTIRE FA WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...WITH ANY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALREADY
CUT BACK ON POPS FOR TODAY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...AND WILL LET A FEW MORE HRRR RUNS COME IN TO GAIN
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE BEFORE CUTTING BACK ON POPS AGAIN. IT DOES
APPEAR THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS THIS FA) WILL BE TOWARD 12Z THUR ACROSS SE ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT
IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THIS AREA BY 12Z. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE (FROM LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS STILL WELL
TO THE NW IN WESTERN CANADA). DID KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS
NEAR THE AREA. MOST SYNOPTIC TYPE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAR TOO WET
WITH PRECIP UNDER THIS CURRENT PATTERN...WITH THE CAM TYPE
GUIDANCE PERFORMING MUCH BETTER. FOLLOWING THIS GUIDANCE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SE ND TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY (PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN CANADA). AFTER THAT...THERE IS
ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
CANADA...POSSIBLY BRINING SCATTERED THUNDER TO THE NORTHERN FA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LOCATION OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY). A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITHIN POCKETS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH FOREST FIRE SMOKE MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE...WITH
VALUES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN FA DURING PEAK
HEATING ON FRIDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY SATURDAY WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE PEAK TIME.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING THE PAST TWO DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL TEMPS WARMEST ON
SATURDAY THEN A TAD COOLER SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AFFECTING
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING. SMOKE
FROM THE CANADIAN WILD FIRES NOT EXPECTED TO RESTRICT VSBY BELOW
6SM. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LOWERED...AND
LIKELY WILL NOT OCCUR (IF THEY DID COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED
ANYWAY).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG



000
FXUS63 KFGF 011135
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING AND/OR MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
ANTICIPATE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
THE ENTIRE FA WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...WITH ANY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALREADY
CUT BACK ON POPS FOR TODAY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...AND WILL LET A FEW MORE HRRR RUNS COME IN TO GAIN
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE BEFORE CUTTING BACK ON POPS AGAIN. IT DOES
APPEAR THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS THIS FA) WILL BE TOWARD 12Z THUR ACROSS SE ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT
IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THIS AREA BY 12Z. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE (FROM LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS STILL WELL
TO THE NW IN WESTERN CANADA). DID KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS
NEAR THE AREA. MOST SYNOPTIC TYPE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAR TOO WET
WITH PRECIP UNDER THIS CURRENT PATTERN...WITH THE CAM TYPE
GUIDANCE PERFORMING MUCH BETTER. FOLLOWING THIS GUIDANCE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SE ND TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY (PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN CANADA). AFTER THAT...THERE IS
ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
CANADA...POSSIBLY BRINING SCATTERED THUNDER TO THE NORTHERN FA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LOCATION OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY). A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITHIN POCKETS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH FOREST FIRE SMOKE MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE...WITH
VALUES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN FA DURING PEAK
HEATING ON FRIDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY SATURDAY WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE PEAK TIME.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING THE PAST TWO DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL TEMPS WARMEST ON
SATURDAY THEN A TAD COOLER SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AFFECTING
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING. SMOKE
FROM THE CANADIAN WILD FIRES NOT EXPECTED TO RESTRICT VSBY BELOW
6SM. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LOWERED...AND
LIKELY WILL NOT OCCUR (IF THEY DID COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED
ANYWAY).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KBIS 011125
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRIMMED POPS A BIT AND INCREASED WHERE RADAR INDICATES
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
THIS MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOGGY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

CALM WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LED TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z FOR THESE
AREAS...AS HRRR ITERATIONS SUGGEST THAT LOW VISIBILITY WILL
LINGER UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND ALBERTA...FLATTENING THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE
SHOULD ARRIVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT JET STREAM LEVEL...A 70 KNOT SPEED MAX WILL
APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE.
THIS ORIENTATION SHOULD PLACE MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION...FURTHER PROMOTING CONVECTION. THAT BEING
SAID...FORECAST SURFACE FEATURES DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FORCING...SO MAGNITUDE OF COVERAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION. 00Z NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 500-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE COLLOCATED WITH 35-45 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN THE
WEST. THEREFORE...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM IN SAID ENVIRONMENT WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DUE TO COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE SEVERE WORDING OUT OF THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THURSDAY...LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SO WE WILL ONCE
AGAIN SEE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH A ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...BEST
CHANCES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE STALLED SFC TROUGH. WE THEN TREND
MAINLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY FINALLY MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
REPLACED BY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.

DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING
AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT - SUNDAY
NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN
DURING THE DAY EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHEN AND WHERE
MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COUPLED TOGETHER.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO FAR
NORTHWEST NEAR THE SFC TROUGH.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY. WARMING TREND TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS
RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WAS LOCATED OVER KISN AND KMOT EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH VLIFR VSBYS AND LIFR CIGS OBSERVED PERIODICALLY. LOW
CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG HAVE ALSO DROPPED KDIK INTO IFR CONDITIONS.
ALL OTHER SITES SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR/MVFR CATEGORIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO IMPROVE AT ALL SITES AFTER 15Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE BEFORE GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...ZH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 011125
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRIMMED POPS A BIT AND INCREASED WHERE RADAR INDICATES
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
THIS MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOGGY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

CALM WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LED TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z FOR THESE
AREAS...AS HRRR ITERATIONS SUGGEST THAT LOW VISIBILITY WILL
LINGER UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND ALBERTA...FLATTENING THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE
SHOULD ARRIVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT JET STREAM LEVEL...A 70 KNOT SPEED MAX WILL
APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE.
THIS ORIENTATION SHOULD PLACE MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION...FURTHER PROMOTING CONVECTION. THAT BEING
SAID...FORECAST SURFACE FEATURES DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FORCING...SO MAGNITUDE OF COVERAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION. 00Z NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 500-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE COLLOCATED WITH 35-45 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN THE
WEST. THEREFORE...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM IN SAID ENVIRONMENT WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DUE TO COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE SEVERE WORDING OUT OF THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THURSDAY...LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SO WE WILL ONCE
AGAIN SEE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH A ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...BEST
CHANCES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE STALLED SFC TROUGH. WE THEN TREND
MAINLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY FINALLY MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
REPLACED BY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.

DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING
AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT - SUNDAY
NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN
DURING THE DAY EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHEN AND WHERE
MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COUPLED TOGETHER.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO FAR
NORTHWEST NEAR THE SFC TROUGH.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY. WARMING TREND TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS
RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WAS LOCATED OVER KISN AND KMOT EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH VLIFR VSBYS AND LIFR CIGS OBSERVED PERIODICALLY. LOW
CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG HAVE ALSO DROPPED KDIK INTO IFR CONDITIONS.
ALL OTHER SITES SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR/MVFR CATEGORIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO IMPROVE AT ALL SITES AFTER 15Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE BEFORE GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...ZH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 011125
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRIMMED POPS A BIT AND INCREASED WHERE RADAR INDICATES
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
THIS MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOGGY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

CALM WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LED TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z FOR THESE
AREAS...AS HRRR ITERATIONS SUGGEST THAT LOW VISIBILITY WILL
LINGER UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND ALBERTA...FLATTENING THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE
SHOULD ARRIVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT JET STREAM LEVEL...A 70 KNOT SPEED MAX WILL
APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE.
THIS ORIENTATION SHOULD PLACE MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION...FURTHER PROMOTING CONVECTION. THAT BEING
SAID...FORECAST SURFACE FEATURES DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FORCING...SO MAGNITUDE OF COVERAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION. 00Z NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 500-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE COLLOCATED WITH 35-45 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN THE
WEST. THEREFORE...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM IN SAID ENVIRONMENT WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DUE TO COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE SEVERE WORDING OUT OF THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THURSDAY...LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SO WE WILL ONCE
AGAIN SEE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH A ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...BEST
CHANCES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE STALLED SFC TROUGH. WE THEN TREND
MAINLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY FINALLY MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
REPLACED BY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.

DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING
AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT - SUNDAY
NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN
DURING THE DAY EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHEN AND WHERE
MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COUPLED TOGETHER.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO FAR
NORTHWEST NEAR THE SFC TROUGH.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY. WARMING TREND TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS
RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WAS LOCATED OVER KISN AND KMOT EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH VLIFR VSBYS AND LIFR CIGS OBSERVED PERIODICALLY. LOW
CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG HAVE ALSO DROPPED KDIK INTO IFR CONDITIONS.
ALL OTHER SITES SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR/MVFR CATEGORIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO IMPROVE AT ALL SITES AFTER 15Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE BEFORE GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...ZH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 011125
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRIMMED POPS A BIT AND INCREASED WHERE RADAR INDICATES
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
THIS MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOGGY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

CALM WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LED TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z FOR THESE
AREAS...AS HRRR ITERATIONS SUGGEST THAT LOW VISIBILITY WILL
LINGER UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND ALBERTA...FLATTENING THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE
SHOULD ARRIVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT JET STREAM LEVEL...A 70 KNOT SPEED MAX WILL
APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE.
THIS ORIENTATION SHOULD PLACE MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION...FURTHER PROMOTING CONVECTION. THAT BEING
SAID...FORECAST SURFACE FEATURES DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FORCING...SO MAGNITUDE OF COVERAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION. 00Z NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 500-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE COLLOCATED WITH 35-45 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN THE
WEST. THEREFORE...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM IN SAID ENVIRONMENT WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DUE TO COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE SEVERE WORDING OUT OF THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THURSDAY...LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SO WE WILL ONCE
AGAIN SEE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH A ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...BEST
CHANCES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE STALLED SFC TROUGH. WE THEN TREND
MAINLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY FINALLY MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
REPLACED BY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.

DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING
AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT - SUNDAY
NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN
DURING THE DAY EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHEN AND WHERE
MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COUPLED TOGETHER.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO FAR
NORTHWEST NEAR THE SFC TROUGH.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY. WARMING TREND TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS
RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WAS LOCATED OVER KISN AND KMOT EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH VLIFR VSBYS AND LIFR CIGS OBSERVED PERIODICALLY. LOW
CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG HAVE ALSO DROPPED KDIK INTO IFR CONDITIONS.
ALL OTHER SITES SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR/MVFR CATEGORIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO IMPROVE AT ALL SITES AFTER 15Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE BEFORE GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...ZH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 011125
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRIMMED POPS A BIT AND INCREASED WHERE RADAR INDICATES
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
THIS MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOGGY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

CALM WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LED TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z FOR THESE
AREAS...AS HRRR ITERATIONS SUGGEST THAT LOW VISIBILITY WILL
LINGER UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND ALBERTA...FLATTENING THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE
SHOULD ARRIVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT JET STREAM LEVEL...A 70 KNOT SPEED MAX WILL
APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE.
THIS ORIENTATION SHOULD PLACE MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION...FURTHER PROMOTING CONVECTION. THAT BEING
SAID...FORECAST SURFACE FEATURES DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FORCING...SO MAGNITUDE OF COVERAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION. 00Z NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 500-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE COLLOCATED WITH 35-45 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN THE
WEST. THEREFORE...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM IN SAID ENVIRONMENT WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DUE TO COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE SEVERE WORDING OUT OF THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THURSDAY...LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SO WE WILL ONCE
AGAIN SEE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH A ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...BEST
CHANCES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE STALLED SFC TROUGH. WE THEN TREND
MAINLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY FINALLY MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
REPLACED BY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.

DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING
AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT - SUNDAY
NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN
DURING THE DAY EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHEN AND WHERE
MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COUPLED TOGETHER.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO FAR
NORTHWEST NEAR THE SFC TROUGH.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY. WARMING TREND TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS
RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WAS LOCATED OVER KISN AND KMOT EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH VLIFR VSBYS AND LIFR CIGS OBSERVED PERIODICALLY. LOW
CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG HAVE ALSO DROPPED KDIK INTO IFR CONDITIONS.
ALL OTHER SITES SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR/MVFR CATEGORIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO IMPROVE AT ALL SITES AFTER 15Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE BEFORE GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...ZH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 011125
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRIMMED POPS A BIT AND INCREASED WHERE RADAR INDICATES
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
THIS MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOGGY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

CALM WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LED TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z FOR THESE
AREAS...AS HRRR ITERATIONS SUGGEST THAT LOW VISIBILITY WILL
LINGER UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND ALBERTA...FLATTENING THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE
SHOULD ARRIVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT JET STREAM LEVEL...A 70 KNOT SPEED MAX WILL
APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE.
THIS ORIENTATION SHOULD PLACE MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION...FURTHER PROMOTING CONVECTION. THAT BEING
SAID...FORECAST SURFACE FEATURES DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FORCING...SO MAGNITUDE OF COVERAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION. 00Z NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 500-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE COLLOCATED WITH 35-45 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN THE
WEST. THEREFORE...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM IN SAID ENVIRONMENT WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DUE TO COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE SEVERE WORDING OUT OF THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THURSDAY...LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SO WE WILL ONCE
AGAIN SEE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH A ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...BEST
CHANCES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE STALLED SFC TROUGH. WE THEN TREND
MAINLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY FINALLY MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
REPLACED BY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.

DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING
AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT - SUNDAY
NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN
DURING THE DAY EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHEN AND WHERE
MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COUPLED TOGETHER.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO FAR
NORTHWEST NEAR THE SFC TROUGH.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY. WARMING TREND TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS
RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WAS LOCATED OVER KISN AND KMOT EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH VLIFR VSBYS AND LIFR CIGS OBSERVED PERIODICALLY. LOW
CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG HAVE ALSO DROPPED KDIK INTO IFR CONDITIONS.
ALL OTHER SITES SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR/MVFR CATEGORIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO IMPROVE AT ALL SITES AFTER 15Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE BEFORE GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...ZH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 010900
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOGGY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

CALM WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LED TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z FOR THESE
AREAS...AS HRRR ITERATIONS SUGGEST THAT LOW VISIBILITY WILL
LINGER UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND ALBERTA...FLATTENING THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE
SHOULD ARRIVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT JET STREAM LEVEL...A 70 KNOT SPEED MAX WILL
APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE.
THIS ORIENTATION SHOULD PLACE MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION...FURTHER PROMOTING CONVECTION. THAT BEING
SAID...FORECAST SURFACE FEATURES DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FORCING...SO MAGNITUDE OF COVERAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION. 00Z NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 500-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE COLLOCATED WITH 35-45 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN THE
WEST. THEREFORE...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM IN SAID ENVIRONMENT WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DUE TO COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE SEVERE WORDING OUT OF THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THURSDAY...LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SO WE WILL ONCE
AGAIN SEE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH A ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...BEST
CHANCES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE STALLED SFC TROUGH. WE THEN TREND
MAINLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY FINALLY MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
REPLACED BY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.

DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING
AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT - SUNDAY
NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN
DURING THE DAY EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHEN AND WHERE
MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COUPLED TOGETHER.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO FAR
NORTHWEST NEAR THE SFC TROUGH.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY. WARMING TREND TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS
RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

DENSE FOG AND SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO
HAMPER VISIBILITY PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AROUND KMOT AND
KISN. EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES DURING THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMOT...WHERE VLIFR VSBYS AND LIFR CIGS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...ZH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 010900
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOGGY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

CALM WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LED TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z FOR THESE
AREAS...AS HRRR ITERATIONS SUGGEST THAT LOW VISIBILITY WILL
LINGER UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND ALBERTA...FLATTENING THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE
SHOULD ARRIVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT JET STREAM LEVEL...A 70 KNOT SPEED MAX WILL
APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE.
THIS ORIENTATION SHOULD PLACE MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION...FURTHER PROMOTING CONVECTION. THAT BEING
SAID...FORECAST SURFACE FEATURES DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FORCING...SO MAGNITUDE OF COVERAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION. 00Z NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 500-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE COLLOCATED WITH 35-45 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN THE
WEST. THEREFORE...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM IN SAID ENVIRONMENT WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DUE TO COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE SEVERE WORDING OUT OF THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THURSDAY...LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SO WE WILL ONCE
AGAIN SEE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH A ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...BEST
CHANCES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE STALLED SFC TROUGH. WE THEN TREND
MAINLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY FINALLY MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
REPLACED BY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.

DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING
AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT - SUNDAY
NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN
DURING THE DAY EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHEN AND WHERE
MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COUPLED TOGETHER.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO FAR
NORTHWEST NEAR THE SFC TROUGH.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY. WARMING TREND TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS
RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

DENSE FOG AND SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO
HAMPER VISIBILITY PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AROUND KMOT AND
KISN. EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES DURING THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMOT...WHERE VLIFR VSBYS AND LIFR CIGS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...ZH




000
FXUS63 KFGF 010800
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT
IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THIS AREA BY 12Z. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE (FROM LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS STILL WELL
TO THE NW IN WESTERN CANADA). DID KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS
NEAR THE AREA. MOST SYNOPTIC TYPE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAR TOO WET
WITH PRECIP UNDER THIS CURRENT PATTERN...WITH THE CAM TYPE
GUIDANCE PERFORMING MUCH BETTER. FOLLOWING THIS GUIDANCE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SE ND TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY (PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN CANADA). AFTER THAT...THERE IS
ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
CANADA...POSSIBLY BRINING SCATTERED THUNDER TO THE NORTHERN FA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LOCATION OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY). A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITHIN POCKETS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH FOREST FIRE SMOKE MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE...WITH
VALUES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN FA DURING PEAK
HEATING ON FRIDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY SATURDAY WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE PEAK TIME.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING THE PAST TWO DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL TEMPS WARMEST ON
SATURDAY THEN A TAD COOLER SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. KEPT ANY PRECIP OUT OF TAFS FOR
NOW...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWEST OF THE
SITES TONIGHT. A SHOWER COULD CLIP KFAR DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
DESPITE LIGHT WINDS...WILL NOT MENTION FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
SOME CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...A BIT OF FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF SKIES DO CLEAR. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER MAINLY ND TERMINALS LATER WEDNESDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI



000
FXUS63 KFGF 010800
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT
IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THIS AREA BY 12Z. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE (FROM LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS STILL WELL
TO THE NW IN WESTERN CANADA). DID KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS
NEAR THE AREA. MOST SYNOPTIC TYPE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAR TOO WET
WITH PRECIP UNDER THIS CURRENT PATTERN...WITH THE CAM TYPE
GUIDANCE PERFORMING MUCH BETTER. FOLLOWING THIS GUIDANCE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SE ND TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY (PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN CANADA). AFTER THAT...THERE IS
ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
CANADA...POSSIBLY BRINING SCATTERED THUNDER TO THE NORTHERN FA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LOCATION OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY). A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITHIN POCKETS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH FOREST FIRE SMOKE MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE...WITH
VALUES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN FA DURING PEAK
HEATING ON FRIDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY SATURDAY WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE PEAK TIME.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING THE PAST TWO DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL TEMPS WARMEST ON
SATURDAY THEN A TAD COOLER SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. KEPT ANY PRECIP OUT OF TAFS FOR
NOW...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWEST OF THE
SITES TONIGHT. A SHOWER COULD CLIP KFAR DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
DESPITE LIGHT WINDS...WILL NOT MENTION FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
SOME CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...A BIT OF FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF SKIES DO CLEAR. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER MAINLY ND TERMINALS LATER WEDNESDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI




000
FXUS63 KBIS 010541
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1241 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TORNADO WATCH # 380 HAS BEEN CANCELLED OVER ALL COUNTIES IN THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.
DID TRIM BACK POPS OVERNIGHT IN LINE WITH RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE ALL BUT GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES FROM
TORNADO WATCH # 380. WILL LIKELY DROP THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL BEFORE 1AM CDT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THIS UPDATE. SEVERAL
STRONG SUPER CELLS WERE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE AN EAST WEST AREA OF NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED MOVING SOUTH ALONG LAKE SAKAKAWEA.
RAP MODEL MAKES A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (POSSIBLY SEVERE)...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES IN THE NORTHWEST...AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY.

REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED TO PLAGUE A PORTION OF
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY FROM WATFORD CITY NORTH TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND AS FAR EAST AS AROUND MINOT. VISIBILITIES HAD
IMPROVED TO 2-6 MILES...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED MIXING
OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE BORDER OF
MT/SD/WY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WAS KEEPING
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS FROM STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED SURFACE BASED
AND MIXED LAYER CAPES SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND
HAVE SEEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DESPITE THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS.
FARTHER WEST IN MONTANA SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WOULD EXPECT
SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL - AND WATCHING FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT 5.5-6.5 C/KM ARE NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SUSTAINED STORMS - AT LEAST NOT APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS. THIS MAY
CHANGE WITH TIME HOWEVER.

AT UPPER LEVELS...THE ANTICIPATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WILL SEE HOW THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT...BUT KEPT HIGH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
MENTION UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

YET ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES THE
STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE STRONG NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR AND CAPE FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REVISIT
THIS TO DETERMINE WHETHER SEVERE MENTION IS WARRANTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE LONG TERM CAN BEST BE CATEGORIZED AS A ROLLER COASTER.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY
EXITS THE REGION. THERE`S A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE SEVERE AS
CAPE...SHEAR AND FORCING REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INHIBIT AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE APPROACHING NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...4TH
OF JULY ACTIVITIES COULD BE IMPACTED. AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE
MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND EVENING OF THE 4TH.

TEMPERATURES WILL SWING FROM THE 70S AND LOW 80S LATE THIS
WEEK...TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY...AND THEN BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN OVER KJMS THROUGH
AROUND 08Z...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN THE NORTHWEST
NEAR KISN. SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER
VISIBILITY PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AROUND KMOT AND KISN.
EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES DURING THE PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KMOT...WHERE FOG AND IFR VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH 14Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...ZH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 010541
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1241 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TORNADO WATCH # 380 HAS BEEN CANCELLED OVER ALL COUNTIES IN THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.
DID TRIM BACK POPS OVERNIGHT IN LINE WITH RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE ALL BUT GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES FROM
TORNADO WATCH # 380. WILL LIKELY DROP THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL BEFORE 1AM CDT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THIS UPDATE. SEVERAL
STRONG SUPER CELLS WERE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE AN EAST WEST AREA OF NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED MOVING SOUTH ALONG LAKE SAKAKAWEA.
RAP MODEL MAKES A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (POSSIBLY SEVERE)...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES IN THE NORTHWEST...AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY.

REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED TO PLAGUE A PORTION OF
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY FROM WATFORD CITY NORTH TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND AS FAR EAST AS AROUND MINOT. VISIBILITIES HAD
IMPROVED TO 2-6 MILES...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED MIXING
OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE BORDER OF
MT/SD/WY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WAS KEEPING
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS FROM STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED SURFACE BASED
AND MIXED LAYER CAPES SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND
HAVE SEEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DESPITE THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS.
FARTHER WEST IN MONTANA SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WOULD EXPECT
SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL - AND WATCHING FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT 5.5-6.5 C/KM ARE NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SUSTAINED STORMS - AT LEAST NOT APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS. THIS MAY
CHANGE WITH TIME HOWEVER.

AT UPPER LEVELS...THE ANTICIPATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WILL SEE HOW THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT...BUT KEPT HIGH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
MENTION UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

YET ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES THE
STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE STRONG NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR AND CAPE FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REVISIT
THIS TO DETERMINE WHETHER SEVERE MENTION IS WARRANTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE LONG TERM CAN BEST BE CATEGORIZED AS A ROLLER COASTER.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY
EXITS THE REGION. THERE`S A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE SEVERE AS
CAPE...SHEAR AND FORCING REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INHIBIT AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE APPROACHING NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...4TH
OF JULY ACTIVITIES COULD BE IMPACTED. AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE
MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND EVENING OF THE 4TH.

TEMPERATURES WILL SWING FROM THE 70S AND LOW 80S LATE THIS
WEEK...TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY...AND THEN BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN OVER KJMS THROUGH
AROUND 08Z...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN THE NORTHWEST
NEAR KISN. SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER
VISIBILITY PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AROUND KMOT AND KISN.
EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES DURING THE PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KMOT...WHERE FOG AND IFR VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH 14Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...ZH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 010450
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1150 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE ALL BUT GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES FROM
TORNADO WATCH # 380. WILL LIKELY DROP THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL BEFORE 1AM CDT.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THIS UPDATE. SEVERAL
STRONG SUPER CELLS WERE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE AN EAST WEST AREA OF NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED MOVING SOUTH ALONG LAKE SAKAKAWEA.
RAP MODEL MAKES A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (POSSIBLY SEVERE)...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES IN THE NORTHWEST...AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY.

REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED TO PLAGUE A PORTION OF
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY FROM WATFORD CITY NORTH TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND AS FAR EAST AS AROUND MINOT. VISIBILITIES HAD
IMPROVED TO 2-6 MILES...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED MIXING
OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE BORDER OF
MT/SD/WY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WAS KEEPING
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS FROM STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED SURFACE BASED
AND MIXED LAYER CAPES SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND
HAVE SEEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DESPITE THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS.
FARTHER WEST IN MONTANA SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WOULD EXPECT
SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL - AND WATCHING FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT 5.5-6.5 C/KM ARE NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SUSTAINED STORMS - AT LEAST NOT APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS. THIS MAY
CHANGE WITH TIME HOWEVER.

AT UPPER LEVELS...THE ANTICIPATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WILL SEE HOW THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT...BUT KEPT HIGH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
MENTION UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

YET ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES THE
STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE STRONG NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR AND CAPE FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REVISIT
THIS TO DETERMINE WHETHER SEVERE MENTION IS WARRANTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE LONG TERM CAN BEST BE CATEGORIZED AS A ROLLER COASTER.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY
EXITS THE REGION. THERE`S A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE SEVERE AS
CAPE...SHEAR AND FORCING REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INHIBIT AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE APPROACHING NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...4TH
OF JULY ACTIVITIES COULD BE IMPACTED. AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE
MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND EVENING OF THE 4TH.

TEMPERATURES WILL SWING FROM THE 70S AND LOW 80S LATE THIS
WEEK...TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY...AND THEN BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. MAINLY
IMPACTING KDIK-KBIS THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN KJMS AFTER MID.
OTHERWISE THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE SMOKE LAYER. SMOKE REMAINS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT KISN-KMOT
WITH 3-5 MILES FU AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 010450
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1150 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE ALL BUT GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES FROM
TORNADO WATCH # 380. WILL LIKELY DROP THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL BEFORE 1AM CDT.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THIS UPDATE. SEVERAL
STRONG SUPER CELLS WERE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE AN EAST WEST AREA OF NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED MOVING SOUTH ALONG LAKE SAKAKAWEA.
RAP MODEL MAKES A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (POSSIBLY SEVERE)...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES IN THE NORTHWEST...AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY.

REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED TO PLAGUE A PORTION OF
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY FROM WATFORD CITY NORTH TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND AS FAR EAST AS AROUND MINOT. VISIBILITIES HAD
IMPROVED TO 2-6 MILES...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED MIXING
OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE BORDER OF
MT/SD/WY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WAS KEEPING
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS FROM STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED SURFACE BASED
AND MIXED LAYER CAPES SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND
HAVE SEEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DESPITE THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS.
FARTHER WEST IN MONTANA SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WOULD EXPECT
SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL - AND WATCHING FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT 5.5-6.5 C/KM ARE NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SUSTAINED STORMS - AT LEAST NOT APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS. THIS MAY
CHANGE WITH TIME HOWEVER.

AT UPPER LEVELS...THE ANTICIPATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WILL SEE HOW THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT...BUT KEPT HIGH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
MENTION UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

YET ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES THE
STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE STRONG NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR AND CAPE FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REVISIT
THIS TO DETERMINE WHETHER SEVERE MENTION IS WARRANTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE LONG TERM CAN BEST BE CATEGORIZED AS A ROLLER COASTER.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY
EXITS THE REGION. THERE`S A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE SEVERE AS
CAPE...SHEAR AND FORCING REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INHIBIT AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE APPROACHING NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...4TH
OF JULY ACTIVITIES COULD BE IMPACTED. AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE
MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND EVENING OF THE 4TH.

TEMPERATURES WILL SWING FROM THE 70S AND LOW 80S LATE THIS
WEEK...TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY...AND THEN BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. MAINLY
IMPACTING KDIK-KBIS THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN KJMS AFTER MID.
OTHERWISE THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE SMOKE LAYER. SMOKE REMAINS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT KISN-KMOT
WITH 3-5 MILES FU AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA



000
FXUS63 KFGF 010445
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO ADD A BIT OF PATCHY FOG IN THE N RRV EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...FOG
IS A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY CLEARING SKIES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP/HRRR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS C ND. SOME OF THIS RAINFALL MAY BRUSH
PARTS OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
INSTABILITY IS WEAK OVER E ND...SO ANY THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO BE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ATTEMPTED TO PUSH INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MINIMAL. THE
STRONGER STORMS...AND INSTABILITY...SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SCTD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY IMPACT MAINLY WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...WHICH AGREES WITH
CURRENT POPS. SO...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CLOUDS AND SMOKE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TEMP FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
TODAY IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH BY EACH AS IT WAS JUST SMOKE
YESTERDAY. EITHER WAY THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
AND SMOKE ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN THRU THE NIGHT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A LITTLE SMOKE/HAZE/FOG AFFECTING THE VSBY AT
SOME SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE PAST TWO DAYS...BUT
IT HAS BEEN SPOTTY ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. IF IT
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD IT CAN BE ADDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE IS STILL OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DROPPING SE.
SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AROUND THIS FEATURE THRU THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY SPREAD SOME WEAKENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO AREAS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT IN THE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED RANGE FOR NOW. DAYTIME HIGHS WED LIKELY REMAIN
A LITTLE LOWER THAN POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STILL KEEP SOME LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN AROUND THU INTO FRI
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE SPOTTY AND BRING MINIMAL PCPN
AMOUNTS. HIGHS THU/FRI WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA/N CENTRAL US OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS QUITE A BIT OFF ON TIMING OF
FEATURES AT THIS POINT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME. UNTIL FROPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
CLOSE TO IF NOT A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. KEPT ANY PRECIP OUT OF TAFS FOR
NOW...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWEST OF THE
SITES TONIGHT. A SHOWER COULD CLIP KFAR DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
DESPITE LIGHT WINDS...WILL NOT MENTION FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
SOME CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...A BIT OF FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF SKIES DO CLEAR. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER MAINLY ND TERMINALS LATER WEDNESDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI



000
FXUS63 KFGF 010445
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO ADD A BIT OF PATCHY FOG IN THE N RRV EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...FOG
IS A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY CLEARING SKIES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP/HRRR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS C ND. SOME OF THIS RAINFALL MAY BRUSH
PARTS OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
INSTABILITY IS WEAK OVER E ND...SO ANY THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO BE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ATTEMPTED TO PUSH INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MINIMAL. THE
STRONGER STORMS...AND INSTABILITY...SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SCTD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY IMPACT MAINLY WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...WHICH AGREES WITH
CURRENT POPS. SO...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CLOUDS AND SMOKE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TEMP FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
TODAY IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH BY EACH AS IT WAS JUST SMOKE
YESTERDAY. EITHER WAY THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
AND SMOKE ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN THRU THE NIGHT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A LITTLE SMOKE/HAZE/FOG AFFECTING THE VSBY AT
SOME SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE PAST TWO DAYS...BUT
IT HAS BEEN SPOTTY ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. IF IT
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD IT CAN BE ADDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE IS STILL OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DROPPING SE.
SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AROUND THIS FEATURE THRU THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY SPREAD SOME WEAKENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO AREAS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT IN THE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED RANGE FOR NOW. DAYTIME HIGHS WED LIKELY REMAIN
A LITTLE LOWER THAN POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STILL KEEP SOME LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN AROUND THU INTO FRI
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE SPOTTY AND BRING MINIMAL PCPN
AMOUNTS. HIGHS THU/FRI WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA/N CENTRAL US OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS QUITE A BIT OFF ON TIMING OF
FEATURES AT THIS POINT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME. UNTIL FROPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
CLOSE TO IF NOT A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. KEPT ANY PRECIP OUT OF TAFS FOR
NOW...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWEST OF THE
SITES TONIGHT. A SHOWER COULD CLIP KFAR DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
DESPITE LIGHT WINDS...WILL NOT MENTION FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
SOME CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...A BIT OF FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF SKIES DO CLEAR. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER MAINLY ND TERMINALS LATER WEDNESDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI




000
FXUS63 KFGF 010249
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
949 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS C ND. SOME OF THIS RAINFALL MAY BRUSH
PARTS OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
INSTABILITY IS WEAK OVER E ND...SO ANY THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO BE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ATTEMPTED TO PUSH INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MINIMAL. THE
STRONGER STORMS...AND INSTABILITY...SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SCTD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY IMPACT MAINLY WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...WHICH AGREES WITH
CURRENT POPS. SO...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CLOUDS AND SMOKE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TEMP FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
TODAY IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH BY EACH AS IT WAS JUST SMOKE
YESTERDAY. EITHER WAY THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
AND SMOKE ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN THRU THE NIGHT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A LITTLE SMOKE/HAZE/FOG AFFECTING THE VSBY AT
SOME SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE PAST TWO DAYS...BUT
IT HAS BEEN SPOTTY ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. IF IT
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD IT CAN BE ADDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE IS STILL OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DROPPING SE.
SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AROUND THIS FEATURE THRU THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY SPREAD SOME WEAKENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO AREAS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT IN THE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED RANGE FOR NOW. DAYTIME HIGHS WED LIKELY REMAIN
A LITTLE LOWER THAN POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STILL KEEP SOME LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN AROUND THU INTO FRI
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE SPOTTY AND BRING MINIMAL PCPN
AMOUNTS. HIGHS THU/FRI WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA/N CENTRAL US OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS QUITE A BIT OFF ON TIMING OF
FEATURES AT THIS POINT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME. UNTIL FROPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
CLOSE TO IF NOT A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF PRECIP DURING THIS TIME.
OVERNIGHT...HIGHER CHANCES LOOK TO BE FARTHER WEST...AND DID
INCLUDE VICINTY SHOWERS AT KDVL THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TO SEE
IF ANY PRECIP GETS FARTHER EAST TOWARDS KGFK/KFAR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI



000
FXUS63 KFGF 010249
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
949 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS C ND. SOME OF THIS RAINFALL MAY BRUSH
PARTS OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
INSTABILITY IS WEAK OVER E ND...SO ANY THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO BE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ATTEMPTED TO PUSH INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MINIMAL. THE
STRONGER STORMS...AND INSTABILITY...SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SCTD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY IMPACT MAINLY WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...WHICH AGREES WITH
CURRENT POPS. SO...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CLOUDS AND SMOKE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TEMP FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
TODAY IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH BY EACH AS IT WAS JUST SMOKE
YESTERDAY. EITHER WAY THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
AND SMOKE ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN THRU THE NIGHT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A LITTLE SMOKE/HAZE/FOG AFFECTING THE VSBY AT
SOME SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE PAST TWO DAYS...BUT
IT HAS BEEN SPOTTY ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. IF IT
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD IT CAN BE ADDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE IS STILL OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DROPPING SE.
SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AROUND THIS FEATURE THRU THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY SPREAD SOME WEAKENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO AREAS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT IN THE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED RANGE FOR NOW. DAYTIME HIGHS WED LIKELY REMAIN
A LITTLE LOWER THAN POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STILL KEEP SOME LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN AROUND THU INTO FRI
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE SPOTTY AND BRING MINIMAL PCPN
AMOUNTS. HIGHS THU/FRI WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA/N CENTRAL US OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS QUITE A BIT OFF ON TIMING OF
FEATURES AT THIS POINT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME. UNTIL FROPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
CLOSE TO IF NOT A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF PRECIP DURING THIS TIME.
OVERNIGHT...HIGHER CHANCES LOOK TO BE FARTHER WEST...AND DID
INCLUDE VICINTY SHOWERS AT KDVL THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TO SEE
IF ANY PRECIP GETS FARTHER EAST TOWARDS KGFK/KFAR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI




000
FXUS63 KBIS 010030
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
730 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THIS UPDATE. SEVERAL
STRONG SUPER CELLS WERE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE AN EAST WEST AREA OF NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED MOVING SOUTH ALONG LAKE SAKAKAWEA.
RAP MODEL MAKES A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (POSSIBLY SEVERE)...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES IN THE NORTHWEST...AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY.

REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED TO PLAGUE A PORTION OF
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY FROM WATFORD CITY NORTH TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND AS FAR EAST AS AROUND MINOT. VISIBILITIES HAD
IMPROVED TO 2-6 MILES...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED MIXING
OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE BORDER OF
MT/SD/WY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WAS KEEPING
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS FROM STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED SURFACE BASED
AND MIXED LAYER CAPES SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND
HAVE SEEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DESPITE THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS.
FARTHER WEST IN MONTANA SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WOULD EXPECT
SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL - AND WATCHING FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT 5.5-6.5 C/KM ARE NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SUSTAINED STORMS - AT LEAST NOT APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS. THIS MAY
CHANGE WITH TIME HOWEVER.

AT UPPER LEVELS...THE ANTICIPATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WILL SEE HOW THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT...BUT KEPT HIGH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
MENTION UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

YET ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES THE
STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE STRONG NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR AND CAPE FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REVISIT
THIS TO DETERMINE WHETHER SEVERE MENTION IS WARRANTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE LONG TERM CAN BEST BE CATEGORIZED AS A ROLLER COASTER.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY
EXITS THE REGION. THERE`S A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE SEVERE AS
CAPE...SHEAR AND FORCING REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INHIBIT AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE APPROACHING NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...4TH
OF JULY ACTIVITIES COULD BE IMPACTED. AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE
MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND EVENING OF THE 4TH.

TEMPERATURES WILL SWING FROM THE 70S AND LOW 80S LATE THIS
WEEK...TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY...AND THEN BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. MAINLY
IMPACTING KDIK-KBIS THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN KJMS AFTER MID.
OTHERWISE THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE SMOKE LAYER. SMOKE REMAINS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT KISN-KMOT
WITH 3-5 MILES FU AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA



000
FXUS63 KBIS 010030
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
730 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THIS UPDATE. SEVERAL
STRONG SUPER CELLS WERE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE AN EAST WEST AREA OF NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED MOVING SOUTH ALONG LAKE SAKAKAWEA.
RAP MODEL MAKES A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (POSSIBLY SEVERE)...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES IN THE NORTHWEST...AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY.

REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED TO PLAGUE A PORTION OF
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY FROM WATFORD CITY NORTH TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND AS FAR EAST AS AROUND MINOT. VISIBILITIES HAD
IMPROVED TO 2-6 MILES...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED MIXING
OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE BORDER OF
MT/SD/WY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WAS KEEPING
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS FROM STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED SURFACE BASED
AND MIXED LAYER CAPES SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND
HAVE SEEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DESPITE THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS.
FARTHER WEST IN MONTANA SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WOULD EXPECT
SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL - AND WATCHING FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT 5.5-6.5 C/KM ARE NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SUSTAINED STORMS - AT LEAST NOT APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS. THIS MAY
CHANGE WITH TIME HOWEVER.

AT UPPER LEVELS...THE ANTICIPATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WILL SEE HOW THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT...BUT KEPT HIGH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
MENTION UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

YET ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES THE
STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE STRONG NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR AND CAPE FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REVISIT
THIS TO DETERMINE WHETHER SEVERE MENTION IS WARRANTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE LONG TERM CAN BEST BE CATEGORIZED AS A ROLLER COASTER.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY
EXITS THE REGION. THERE`S A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE SEVERE AS
CAPE...SHEAR AND FORCING REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INHIBIT AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE APPROACHING NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...4TH
OF JULY ACTIVITIES COULD BE IMPACTED. AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE
MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND EVENING OF THE 4TH.

TEMPERATURES WILL SWING FROM THE 70S AND LOW 80S LATE THIS
WEEK...TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY...AND THEN BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. MAINLY
IMPACTING KDIK-KBIS THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN KJMS AFTER MID.
OTHERWISE THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE SMOKE LAYER. SMOKE REMAINS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT KISN-KMOT
WITH 3-5 MILES FU AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 010030
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
730 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THIS UPDATE. SEVERAL
STRONG SUPER CELLS WERE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE AN EAST WEST AREA OF NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED MOVING SOUTH ALONG LAKE SAKAKAWEA.
RAP MODEL MAKES A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (POSSIBLY SEVERE)...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES IN THE NORTHWEST...AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY.

REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED TO PLAGUE A PORTION OF
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY FROM WATFORD CITY NORTH TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND AS FAR EAST AS AROUND MINOT. VISIBILITIES HAD
IMPROVED TO 2-6 MILES...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED MIXING
OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE BORDER OF
MT/SD/WY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WAS KEEPING
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS FROM STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED SURFACE BASED
AND MIXED LAYER CAPES SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND
HAVE SEEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DESPITE THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS.
FARTHER WEST IN MONTANA SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WOULD EXPECT
SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL - AND WATCHING FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT 5.5-6.5 C/KM ARE NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SUSTAINED STORMS - AT LEAST NOT APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS. THIS MAY
CHANGE WITH TIME HOWEVER.

AT UPPER LEVELS...THE ANTICIPATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WILL SEE HOW THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT...BUT KEPT HIGH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
MENTION UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

YET ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES THE
STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE STRONG NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR AND CAPE FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REVISIT
THIS TO DETERMINE WHETHER SEVERE MENTION IS WARRANTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE LONG TERM CAN BEST BE CATEGORIZED AS A ROLLER COASTER.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY
EXITS THE REGION. THERE`S A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE SEVERE AS
CAPE...SHEAR AND FORCING REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INHIBIT AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE APPROACHING NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...4TH
OF JULY ACTIVITIES COULD BE IMPACTED. AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE
MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND EVENING OF THE 4TH.

TEMPERATURES WILL SWING FROM THE 70S AND LOW 80S LATE THIS
WEEK...TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY...AND THEN BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. MAINLY
IMPACTING KDIK-KBIS THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN KJMS AFTER MID.
OTHERWISE THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE SMOKE LAYER. SMOKE REMAINS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT KISN-KMOT
WITH 3-5 MILES FU AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA



000
FXUS63 KFGF 302357
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ATTEMPTED TO PUSH INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MINIMAL. THE
STRONGER STORMS...AND INSTABILITY...SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SCTD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY IMPACT MAINLY WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...WHICH AGREES WITH
CURRENT POPS. SO...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CLOUDS AND SMOKE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TEMP FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
TODAY IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH BY EACH AS IT WAS JUST SMOKE
YESTERDAY. EITHER WAY THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
AND SMOKE ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN THRU THE NIGHT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A LITTLE SMOKE/HAZE/FOG AFFECTING THE VSBY AT
SOME SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE PAST TWO DAYS...BUT
IT HAS BEEN SPOTTY ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. IF IT
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD IT CAN BE ADDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE IS STILL OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DROPPING SE.
SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AROUND THIS FEATURE THRU THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY SPREAD SOME WEAKENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO AREAS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT IN THE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED RANGE FOR NOW. DAYTIME HIGHS WED LIKELY REMAIN
A LITTLE LOWER THAN POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STILL KEEP SOME LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN AROUND THU INTO FRI
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE SPOTTY AND BRING MINIMAL PCPN
AMOUNTS. HIGHS THU/FRI WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA/N CENTRAL US OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS QUITE A BIT OFF ON TIMING OF
FEATURES AT THIS POINT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME. UNTIL FROPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
CLOSE TO IF NOT A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF PRECIP DURING THIS TIME.
OVERNIGHT...HIGHER CHANCES LOOK TO BE FARTHER WEST...AND DID
INCLUDE VICINTY SHOWERS AT KDVL THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TO SEE
IF ANY PRECIP GETS FARTHER EAST TOWARDS KGFK/KFAR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI



000
FXUS63 KFGF 302357
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ATTEMPTED TO PUSH INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MINIMAL. THE
STRONGER STORMS...AND INSTABILITY...SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SCTD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY IMPACT MAINLY WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...WHICH AGREES WITH
CURRENT POPS. SO...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CLOUDS AND SMOKE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TEMP FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
TODAY IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH BY EACH AS IT WAS JUST SMOKE
YESTERDAY. EITHER WAY THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
AND SMOKE ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN THRU THE NIGHT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A LITTLE SMOKE/HAZE/FOG AFFECTING THE VSBY AT
SOME SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE PAST TWO DAYS...BUT
IT HAS BEEN SPOTTY ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. IF IT
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD IT CAN BE ADDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE IS STILL OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DROPPING SE.
SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AROUND THIS FEATURE THRU THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY SPREAD SOME WEAKENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO AREAS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT IN THE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED RANGE FOR NOW. DAYTIME HIGHS WED LIKELY REMAIN
A LITTLE LOWER THAN POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STILL KEEP SOME LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN AROUND THU INTO FRI
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE SPOTTY AND BRING MINIMAL PCPN
AMOUNTS. HIGHS THU/FRI WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA/N CENTRAL US OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS QUITE A BIT OFF ON TIMING OF
FEATURES AT THIS POINT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME. UNTIL FROPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
CLOSE TO IF NOT A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF PRECIP DURING THIS TIME.
OVERNIGHT...HIGHER CHANCES LOOK TO BE FARTHER WEST...AND DID
INCLUDE VICINTY SHOWERS AT KDVL THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TO SEE
IF ANY PRECIP GETS FARTHER EAST TOWARDS KGFK/KFAR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI



000
FXUS63 KFGF 302357
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ATTEMPTED TO PUSH INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MINIMAL. THE
STRONGER STORMS...AND INSTABILITY...SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SCTD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY IMPACT MAINLY WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...WHICH AGREES WITH
CURRENT POPS. SO...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CLOUDS AND SMOKE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TEMP FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
TODAY IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH BY EACH AS IT WAS JUST SMOKE
YESTERDAY. EITHER WAY THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
AND SMOKE ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN THRU THE NIGHT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A LITTLE SMOKE/HAZE/FOG AFFECTING THE VSBY AT
SOME SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE PAST TWO DAYS...BUT
IT HAS BEEN SPOTTY ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. IF IT
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD IT CAN BE ADDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE IS STILL OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DROPPING SE.
SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AROUND THIS FEATURE THRU THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY SPREAD SOME WEAKENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO AREAS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT IN THE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED RANGE FOR NOW. DAYTIME HIGHS WED LIKELY REMAIN
A LITTLE LOWER THAN POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STILL KEEP SOME LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN AROUND THU INTO FRI
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE SPOTTY AND BRING MINIMAL PCPN
AMOUNTS. HIGHS THU/FRI WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA/N CENTRAL US OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS QUITE A BIT OFF ON TIMING OF
FEATURES AT THIS POINT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME. UNTIL FROPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
CLOSE TO IF NOT A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF PRECIP DURING THIS TIME.
OVERNIGHT...HIGHER CHANCES LOOK TO BE FARTHER WEST...AND DID
INCLUDE VICINTY SHOWERS AT KDVL THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TO SEE
IF ANY PRECIP GETS FARTHER EAST TOWARDS KGFK/KFAR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI




000
FXUS63 KFGF 302357
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ATTEMPTED TO PUSH INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MINIMAL. THE
STRONGER STORMS...AND INSTABILITY...SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SCTD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY IMPACT MAINLY WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...WHICH AGREES WITH
CURRENT POPS. SO...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CLOUDS AND SMOKE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TEMP FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
TODAY IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH BY EACH AS IT WAS JUST SMOKE
YESTERDAY. EITHER WAY THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
AND SMOKE ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN THRU THE NIGHT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A LITTLE SMOKE/HAZE/FOG AFFECTING THE VSBY AT
SOME SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE PAST TWO DAYS...BUT
IT HAS BEEN SPOTTY ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. IF IT
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD IT CAN BE ADDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE IS STILL OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DROPPING SE.
SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AROUND THIS FEATURE THRU THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY SPREAD SOME WEAKENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO AREAS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT IN THE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED RANGE FOR NOW. DAYTIME HIGHS WED LIKELY REMAIN
A LITTLE LOWER THAN POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STILL KEEP SOME LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN AROUND THU INTO FRI
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE SPOTTY AND BRING MINIMAL PCPN
AMOUNTS. HIGHS THU/FRI WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA/N CENTRAL US OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS QUITE A BIT OFF ON TIMING OF
FEATURES AT THIS POINT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME. UNTIL FROPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
CLOSE TO IF NOT A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF PRECIP DURING THIS TIME.
OVERNIGHT...HIGHER CHANCES LOOK TO BE FARTHER WEST...AND DID
INCLUDE VICINTY SHOWERS AT KDVL THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TO SEE
IF ANY PRECIP GETS FARTHER EAST TOWARDS KGFK/KFAR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI




000
FXUS63 KFGF 302004
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CLOUDS AND SMOKE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TEMP FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
TODAY IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH BY EACH AS IT WAS JUST SMOKE
YESTERDAY. EITHER WAY THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
AND SMOKE ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN THRU THE NIGHT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A LITTLE SMOKE/HAZE/FOG AFFECTING THE VSBY AT
SOME SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE PAST TWO DAYS...BUT
IT HAS BEEN SPOTTY ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. IF IT
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD IT CAN BE ADDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE IS STILL OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DROPPING SE.
SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AROUND THIS FEATURE THRU THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY SPREAD SOME WEAKENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO AREAS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT IN THE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED RANGE FOR NOW. DAYTIME HIGHS WED LIKELY REMAIN
A LITTLE LOWER THAN POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STILL KEEP SOME LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN AROUND THU INTO FRI
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE SPOTTY AND BRING MINIMAL PCPN
AMOUNTS. HIGHS THU/FRI WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA/N CENTRAL US OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS QUITE A BIT OFF ON TIMING OF
FEATURES AT THIS POINT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME. UNTIL FROPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
CLOSE TO IF NOT A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

K DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AFFECTING SFC VSBY ANY LONGER.  OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SPOTTY SHRA COULD
REACH INTO THE DVL AREA THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN LIGHT WITH NO T
EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 302004
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CLOUDS AND SMOKE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TEMP FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
TODAY IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH BY EACH AS IT WAS JUST SMOKE
YESTERDAY. EITHER WAY THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
AND SMOKE ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN THRU THE NIGHT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A LITTLE SMOKE/HAZE/FOG AFFECTING THE VSBY AT
SOME SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE PAST TWO DAYS...BUT
IT HAS BEEN SPOTTY ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. IF IT
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD IT CAN BE ADDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE IS STILL OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DROPPING SE.
SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AROUND THIS FEATURE THRU THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY SPREAD SOME WEAKENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO AREAS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT IN THE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED RANGE FOR NOW. DAYTIME HIGHS WED LIKELY REMAIN
A LITTLE LOWER THAN POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STILL KEEP SOME LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN AROUND THU INTO FRI
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE SPOTTY AND BRING MINIMAL PCPN
AMOUNTS. HIGHS THU/FRI WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA/N CENTRAL US OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS QUITE A BIT OFF ON TIMING OF
FEATURES AT THIS POINT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME. UNTIL FROPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
CLOSE TO IF NOT A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

K DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AFFECTING SFC VSBY ANY LONGER.  OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SPOTTY SHRA COULD
REACH INTO THE DVL AREA THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN LIGHT WITH NO T
EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KBIS 301949
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
249 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (POSSIBLY SEVERE)...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES IN THE NORTHWEST...AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY.

REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED TO PLAGUE A PORTION OF
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY FROM WATFORD CITY NORTH TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND AS FAR EAST AS AROUND MINOT. VISIBILITIES HAD
IMPROVED TO 2-6 MILES...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED MIXING
OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE BORDER OF
MT/SD/WY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WAS KEEPING
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS FROM STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED SURFACE BASED
AND MIXED LAYER CAPES SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND
HAVE SEEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DESPITE THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS.
FARTHER WEST IN MONTANA SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WOULD EXPECT
SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL - AND WATCHING FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT 5.5-6.5 C/KM ARE NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SUSTAINED STORMS - AT LEAST NOT APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS. THIS MAY
CHANGE WITH TIME HOWEVER.

AT UPPER LEVELS...THE ANTICIPATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WILL SEE HOW THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT...BUT KEPT HIGH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
MENTION UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

YET ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES THE
STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE STRONG NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR AND CAPE FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REVISIT
THIS TO DETERMINE WHETHER SEVERE MENTION IS WARRANTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE LONG TERM CAN BEST BE CATEGORIZED AS A ROLLER COASTER.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY
EXITS THE REGION. THERE`S A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE SEVERE AS
CAPE...SHEAR AND FORCING REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INHIBIT AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE APPROACHING NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...4TH
OF JULY ACTIVITIES COULD BE IMPACTED. AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE
MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND EVENING OF THE 4TH.

TEMPERATURES WILL SWING FROM THE 70S AND LOW 80S LATE THIS
WEEK...TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY...AND THEN BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VSBYS AT KISN AND KMOT...BUT NOW
EXPECTED ONLY TO 2-6 MILES. VISIBILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIXING TO LOW/MID LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE.

WEAK SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE KJMS AREA BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED KISN/KDIK AT 18Z...AND
AT KMOT/KBIS BY MID AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AT KISN AND
KDIK TO KMOT AND KBIS FROM AROUND 21Z-03Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER
06Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 301949
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
249 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (POSSIBLY SEVERE)...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES IN THE NORTHWEST...AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY.

REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED TO PLAGUE A PORTION OF
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY FROM WATFORD CITY NORTH TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND AS FAR EAST AS AROUND MINOT. VISIBILITIES HAD
IMPROVED TO 2-6 MILES...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED MIXING
OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE BORDER OF
MT/SD/WY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WAS KEEPING
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS FROM STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED SURFACE BASED
AND MIXED LAYER CAPES SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND
HAVE SEEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DESPITE THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS.
FARTHER WEST IN MONTANA SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WOULD EXPECT
SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL - AND WATCHING FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT 5.5-6.5 C/KM ARE NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SUSTAINED STORMS - AT LEAST NOT APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS. THIS MAY
CHANGE WITH TIME HOWEVER.

AT UPPER LEVELS...THE ANTICIPATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WILL SEE HOW THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT...BUT KEPT HIGH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
MENTION UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

YET ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES THE
STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE STRONG NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR AND CAPE FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REVISIT
THIS TO DETERMINE WHETHER SEVERE MENTION IS WARRANTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE LONG TERM CAN BEST BE CATEGORIZED AS A ROLLER COASTER.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY
EXITS THE REGION. THERE`S A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE SEVERE AS
CAPE...SHEAR AND FORCING REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INHIBIT AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE APPROACHING NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...4TH
OF JULY ACTIVITIES COULD BE IMPACTED. AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE
MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND EVENING OF THE 4TH.

TEMPERATURES WILL SWING FROM THE 70S AND LOW 80S LATE THIS
WEEK...TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY...AND THEN BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VSBYS AT KISN AND KMOT...BUT NOW
EXPECTED ONLY TO 2-6 MILES. VISIBILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIXING TO LOW/MID LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE.

WEAK SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE KJMS AREA BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED KISN/KDIK AT 18Z...AND
AT KMOT/KBIS BY MID AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AT KISN AND
KDIK TO KMOT AND KBIS FROM AROUND 21Z-03Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER
06Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 301949
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
249 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (POSSIBLY SEVERE)...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES IN THE NORTHWEST...AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY.

REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED TO PLAGUE A PORTION OF
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY FROM WATFORD CITY NORTH TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND AS FAR EAST AS AROUND MINOT. VISIBILITIES HAD
IMPROVED TO 2-6 MILES...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED MIXING
OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE BORDER OF
MT/SD/WY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WAS KEEPING
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS FROM STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED SURFACE BASED
AND MIXED LAYER CAPES SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND
HAVE SEEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DESPITE THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS.
FARTHER WEST IN MONTANA SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WOULD EXPECT
SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL - AND WATCHING FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT 5.5-6.5 C/KM ARE NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SUSTAINED STORMS - AT LEAST NOT APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS. THIS MAY
CHANGE WITH TIME HOWEVER.

AT UPPER LEVELS...THE ANTICIPATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WILL SEE HOW THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT...BUT KEPT HIGH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
MENTION UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

YET ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES THE
STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE STRONG NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR AND CAPE FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REVISIT
THIS TO DETERMINE WHETHER SEVERE MENTION IS WARRANTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE LONG TERM CAN BEST BE CATEGORIZED AS A ROLLER COASTER.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY
EXITS THE REGION. THERE`S A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE SEVERE AS
CAPE...SHEAR AND FORCING REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INHIBIT AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE APPROACHING NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...4TH
OF JULY ACTIVITIES COULD BE IMPACTED. AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE
MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND EVENING OF THE 4TH.

TEMPERATURES WILL SWING FROM THE 70S AND LOW 80S LATE THIS
WEEK...TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY...AND THEN BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VSBYS AT KISN AND KMOT...BUT NOW
EXPECTED ONLY TO 2-6 MILES. VISIBILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIXING TO LOW/MID LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE.

WEAK SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE KJMS AREA BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED KISN/KDIK AT 18Z...AND
AT KMOT/KBIS BY MID AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AT KISN AND
KDIK TO KMOT AND KBIS FROM AROUND 21Z-03Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER
06Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 301949
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
249 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (POSSIBLY SEVERE)...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES IN THE NORTHWEST...AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY.

REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED TO PLAGUE A PORTION OF
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY FROM WATFORD CITY NORTH TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND AS FAR EAST AS AROUND MINOT. VISIBILITIES HAD
IMPROVED TO 2-6 MILES...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED MIXING
OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE BORDER OF
MT/SD/WY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WAS KEEPING
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS FROM STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED SURFACE BASED
AND MIXED LAYER CAPES SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND
HAVE SEEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DESPITE THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS.
FARTHER WEST IN MONTANA SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WOULD EXPECT
SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL - AND WATCHING FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT 5.5-6.5 C/KM ARE NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SUSTAINED STORMS - AT LEAST NOT APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS. THIS MAY
CHANGE WITH TIME HOWEVER.

AT UPPER LEVELS...THE ANTICIPATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WILL SEE HOW THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT...BUT KEPT HIGH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
MENTION UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

YET ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES THE
STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE STRONG NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR AND CAPE FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REVISIT
THIS TO DETERMINE WHETHER SEVERE MENTION IS WARRANTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE LONG TERM CAN BEST BE CATEGORIZED AS A ROLLER COASTER.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY
EXITS THE REGION. THERE`S A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE SEVERE AS
CAPE...SHEAR AND FORCING REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INHIBIT AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE APPROACHING NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...4TH
OF JULY ACTIVITIES COULD BE IMPACTED. AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE
MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND EVENING OF THE 4TH.

TEMPERATURES WILL SWING FROM THE 70S AND LOW 80S LATE THIS
WEEK...TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY...AND THEN BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VSBYS AT KISN AND KMOT...BUT NOW
EXPECTED ONLY TO 2-6 MILES. VISIBILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIXING TO LOW/MID LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE.

WEAK SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE KJMS AREA BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED KISN/KDIK AT 18Z...AND
AT KMOT/KBIS BY MID AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AT KISN AND
KDIK TO KMOT AND KBIS FROM AROUND 21Z-03Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER
06Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 301949
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
249 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (POSSIBLY SEVERE)...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES IN THE NORTHWEST...AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY.

REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED TO PLAGUE A PORTION OF
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY FROM WATFORD CITY NORTH TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND AS FAR EAST AS AROUND MINOT. VISIBILITIES HAD
IMPROVED TO 2-6 MILES...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED MIXING
OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE BORDER OF
MT/SD/WY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WAS KEEPING
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS FROM STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED SURFACE BASED
AND MIXED LAYER CAPES SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND
HAVE SEEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DESPITE THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS.
FARTHER WEST IN MONTANA SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WOULD EXPECT
SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL - AND WATCHING FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT 5.5-6.5 C/KM ARE NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SUSTAINED STORMS - AT LEAST NOT APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS. THIS MAY
CHANGE WITH TIME HOWEVER.

AT UPPER LEVELS...THE ANTICIPATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WILL SEE HOW THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT...BUT KEPT HIGH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
MENTION UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

YET ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES THE
STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE STRONG NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR AND CAPE FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REVISIT
THIS TO DETERMINE WHETHER SEVERE MENTION IS WARRANTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE LONG TERM CAN BEST BE CATEGORIZED AS A ROLLER COASTER.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY
EXITS THE REGION. THERE`S A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE SEVERE AS
CAPE...SHEAR AND FORCING REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INHIBIT AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE APPROACHING NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...4TH
OF JULY ACTIVITIES COULD BE IMPACTED. AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE
MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND EVENING OF THE 4TH.

TEMPERATURES WILL SWING FROM THE 70S AND LOW 80S LATE THIS
WEEK...TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY...AND THEN BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VSBYS AT KISN AND KMOT...BUT NOW
EXPECTED ONLY TO 2-6 MILES. VISIBILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIXING TO LOW/MID LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE.

WEAK SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE KJMS AREA BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED KISN/KDIK AT 18Z...AND
AT KMOT/KBIS BY MID AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AT KISN AND
KDIK TO KMOT AND KBIS FROM AROUND 21Z-03Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER
06Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 301744
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1244 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VISIBILITIES WERE IMPROVING SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES VALID UNTIL AROUND 4 PM. AS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON THE SMOKE SHOULD NOT POSE
VISIBILITY ISSUES AT THE SURFACE.

FIRST WAVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED
MOVING EAST INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AND JAMES BASIN REGIONS.
MEANWHILE AN AREA OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. INCREASING CAPE AND ESTABLISHED SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY BECOME MORE
SCATTERED (A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD) IN NATURE. WITH TIME SOME
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG AND MAY EVEN REACH SEVERE
LEVELS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES HAS BEGUN TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THE
PAST HOUR OR SO...WITH VISIBILITY IN WILLISTON RISING FROM 1-2 MILES
TO 4 MILES...THOUGH CROSBY IS STILL REPORTING 1 MILE VISIBILITY.
WILL REVISIT THIS ISSUE AROUND NOON TO SEE WHETHER MIXING WITH WINDS
AND POTENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS HELPS MIX OUT THE SMOKE AT THE SURFACE.

BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAS SHIFTED INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH THE SOUTHWEST FREE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HAVE UPDATED
PRECIP CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WE ARE STILL EXPECTING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST
BY MID-AFTERNOON...WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THIS ISSUANCE. TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY...ONE MOVING EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ND...THE OTHER
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH ZERO LIGHTNING STRIKES THE PAST FEW HOURS.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLD THUNDER MENTION THROUGH THE AM
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN ONE AND THREE MILES ACROSS
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WILL CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE SMOKY CONDITIONS NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND LET THE DAYSHIFT RE-EVALUATE LATER IN THE MORNING.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT PAST THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY...IS NOW LOCATED
ROUGHLY FROM BOWBELLS...TO STANLEY...SOUTH TO GLEN ULLIN AND INTO
MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR SHOWED A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...RIDING OVER THIS FRONT RESULTING IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MORTON/GRANT/SIOUX/EMMONS
COUNTIES...AND INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING
ACTIVITY AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWS REFLECTIVITYS INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND EASTERN MONTANA..ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LEADING SHORTWAVE. AS
THIS SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...EXPECTING RENEWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE AREAL COVERAGE TODAY...BUT TIMING HOW
LONG AND WHICH AREAS WILL BE DIFFICULT. HAVE PRETTY MUCH TRENDED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING THEN
INCREASED TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...SHIFTS
INTO NORTHEAST/EASTERN MONTANA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND A FORMIDABLE FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. REMNANTS OF THIS MORNINGS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MENTIONED ABOVE MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FURTHER WEST. SPC HAS
NOW INCREASED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK CATEGORY TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEST...AND EXPANDED THE MARGINAL AREA TO NEAR CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/AND
CLOSER TO THE FRONT/GREATEST SHEAR WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
COUPLE OF TORNADOS. CAPE VALUES PER GFS INCREASE TO AROUND
1000-1300 J/KG WEST WITH IMPRESSIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55-60KT.
THE ECMWF ADVERTISES CAPE OF AROUND 1800 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULKSHEAR
OF 50-55KT. HAVE INJECTED SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDDED DATA/POINT
AND CLICK...AND WILL CARRY THIS MESSAGE OUT INTO THE STATE FORECAST/HWO
FOR CONSISTENCY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THROUGH THURSDAY...SEVERAL EMBEDDED
WAVES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY/REDEVELOPING SURFACE BOUNDARY BRINGING DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. KEPT WORDING AT CHANCE UNTIL WE
GET CLOSER TO SPECIFIC PERIODS WHEN POPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE BETTER
FINE-TUNED. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME ACROSS THE WEST NEAR A STATIONARY SFC TROUGH WHERE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ROBUST BULK SHEAR.

WILL GO WITH A DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD WHEN MODELS MOVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.

DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES
SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK
INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S AFTER HIGHS WED & THURS 70-80. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT -
SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WHEN MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COUPLED TOGETHER. SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP
LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SECONDARY/BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE 70S FOR SUNDAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT 60S ACROSS THE EAST DEPENDING
ON HOW STRONG THE CAA IS DEPICTED FOR MONDAY OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL
RUNS. WE WARM BACK UP MID-WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VSBYS AT KISN AND KMOT...BUT NOW
EXPECTED ONLY TO 2-6 MILES. VISIBILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIXING TO LOW/MID LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE.

WEAK SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE KJMS AREA BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED KISN/KDIK AT 18Z...AND
AT KMOT/KBIS BY MID AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AT KISN AND
KDIK TO KMOT AND KBIS FROM AROUND 21Z-03Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER
06Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 301744
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1244 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VISIBILITIES WERE IMPROVING SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES VALID UNTIL AROUND 4 PM. AS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON THE SMOKE SHOULD NOT POSE
VISIBILITY ISSUES AT THE SURFACE.

FIRST WAVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED
MOVING EAST INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AND JAMES BASIN REGIONS.
MEANWHILE AN AREA OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. INCREASING CAPE AND ESTABLISHED SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY BECOME MORE
SCATTERED (A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD) IN NATURE. WITH TIME SOME
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG AND MAY EVEN REACH SEVERE
LEVELS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES HAS BEGUN TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THE
PAST HOUR OR SO...WITH VISIBILITY IN WILLISTON RISING FROM 1-2 MILES
TO 4 MILES...THOUGH CROSBY IS STILL REPORTING 1 MILE VISIBILITY.
WILL REVISIT THIS ISSUE AROUND NOON TO SEE WHETHER MIXING WITH WINDS
AND POTENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS HELPS MIX OUT THE SMOKE AT THE SURFACE.

BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAS SHIFTED INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH THE SOUTHWEST FREE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HAVE UPDATED
PRECIP CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WE ARE STILL EXPECTING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST
BY MID-AFTERNOON...WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THIS ISSUANCE. TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY...ONE MOVING EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ND...THE OTHER
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH ZERO LIGHTNING STRIKES THE PAST FEW HOURS.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLD THUNDER MENTION THROUGH THE AM
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN ONE AND THREE MILES ACROSS
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WILL CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE SMOKY CONDITIONS NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND LET THE DAYSHIFT RE-EVALUATE LATER IN THE MORNING.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT PAST THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY...IS NOW LOCATED
ROUGHLY FROM BOWBELLS...TO STANLEY...SOUTH TO GLEN ULLIN AND INTO
MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR SHOWED A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...RIDING OVER THIS FRONT RESULTING IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MORTON/GRANT/SIOUX/EMMONS
COUNTIES...AND INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING
ACTIVITY AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWS REFLECTIVITYS INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND EASTERN MONTANA..ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LEADING SHORTWAVE. AS
THIS SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...EXPECTING RENEWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE AREAL COVERAGE TODAY...BUT TIMING HOW
LONG AND WHICH AREAS WILL BE DIFFICULT. HAVE PRETTY MUCH TRENDED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING THEN
INCREASED TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...SHIFTS
INTO NORTHEAST/EASTERN MONTANA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND A FORMIDABLE FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. REMNANTS OF THIS MORNINGS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MENTIONED ABOVE MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FURTHER WEST. SPC HAS
NOW INCREASED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK CATEGORY TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEST...AND EXPANDED THE MARGINAL AREA TO NEAR CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/AND
CLOSER TO THE FRONT/GREATEST SHEAR WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
COUPLE OF TORNADOS. CAPE VALUES PER GFS INCREASE TO AROUND
1000-1300 J/KG WEST WITH IMPRESSIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55-60KT.
THE ECMWF ADVERTISES CAPE OF AROUND 1800 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULKSHEAR
OF 50-55KT. HAVE INJECTED SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDDED DATA/POINT
AND CLICK...AND WILL CARRY THIS MESSAGE OUT INTO THE STATE FORECAST/HWO
FOR CONSISTENCY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THROUGH THURSDAY...SEVERAL EMBEDDED
WAVES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY/REDEVELOPING SURFACE BOUNDARY BRINGING DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. KEPT WORDING AT CHANCE UNTIL WE
GET CLOSER TO SPECIFIC PERIODS WHEN POPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE BETTER
FINE-TUNED. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME ACROSS THE WEST NEAR A STATIONARY SFC TROUGH WHERE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ROBUST BULK SHEAR.

WILL GO WITH A DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD WHEN MODELS MOVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.

DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES
SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK
INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S AFTER HIGHS WED & THURS 70-80. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT -
SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WHEN MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COUPLED TOGETHER. SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP
LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SECONDARY/BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE 70S FOR SUNDAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT 60S ACROSS THE EAST DEPENDING
ON HOW STRONG THE CAA IS DEPICTED FOR MONDAY OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL
RUNS. WE WARM BACK UP MID-WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VSBYS AT KISN AND KMOT...BUT NOW
EXPECTED ONLY TO 2-6 MILES. VISIBILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIXING TO LOW/MID LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE.

WEAK SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE KJMS AREA BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED KISN/KDIK AT 18Z...AND
AT KMOT/KBIS BY MID AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AT KISN AND
KDIK TO KMOT AND KBIS FROM AROUND 21Z-03Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER
06Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KFGF 301737
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1237 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

BUMPED UP CLOUD AMOUNTS A LITTLE BIT MORE ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY...WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED MORE THAN
EXPECTED. PCPN CONTINUES TO DRY UP AS IT APPROACHES OUR WESTERN
BORDER SO WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. EVEN THEN ONLY EXPECTING AN ISOLATED SHOWER AT MOST.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LESS PCPN TONIGHT AS WELL SO WILL LIKELY
BE TRIMMING BACK ON PCPN CHANCES AND POTENTIAL AMOUNTS. OVERALL
LOOKING PRETTY LIGHT IF ANYTHING AT ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SMOKE/HAZE TODAY. FEEL LIKE THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT AS UPPER FLOW IS THE SAME AS MONDAY. BUT WE ALSO HAVE
CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE AREA AS
MOISTURE MOVES AROUND THE 500 MB HIGH OVER UTAH. WEAK SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CNTRL/WRN ND CAUSING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDER JUST WEST OF FCST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL
KEEP PATTERN PRETTY STABLE THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST ONLY SLOWLY ABLE TO MOVE EAST INTO ERN ND TODAY THRU
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING MOST OF NW MN TO BE DRY.  GFS/NAM ARE A BIT
MORE BULLISH WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT SO DID PUSH THE
POPS A TAD FARTHER EAST THAN SOME OF THE VERY SHORT RANGE MODELS
(WRFS) WOULD SAY. TEMPS NEAR AVERAGE AND LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV
FCST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT WAVES AND A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CNTRL ND INTO ERN SD AND SRN MN WITH BEST BET FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS IN THIS REGION. DID KEEP LOWER POPS WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN THE RRV AND PARTS OF NW/WCNTRL MN AS AREA IS ON THE
FENCE BETWEEN DRY CONDITIONS OVER NW ONTARIO AND WETTER CONDITIONS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO INDICATE NW FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS A DEEP UPPER LOW PROPAGATES THROUGH
CANADA. THE STRONGEST MODEL SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY (ECMWF ABOUT
12 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE GFS). TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES AHEAD OF THE COLD FROPA...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES
TO START THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

K DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AFFECTING SFC VSBY ANY LONGER.  OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SPOTTY SHRA COULD
REACH INTO THE DVL AREA THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN LIGHT WITH NO T
EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 301737
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1237 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

BUMPED UP CLOUD AMOUNTS A LITTLE BIT MORE ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY...WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED MORE THAN
EXPECTED. PCPN CONTINUES TO DRY UP AS IT APPROACHES OUR WESTERN
BORDER SO WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. EVEN THEN ONLY EXPECTING AN ISOLATED SHOWER AT MOST.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LESS PCPN TONIGHT AS WELL SO WILL LIKELY
BE TRIMMING BACK ON PCPN CHANCES AND POTENTIAL AMOUNTS. OVERALL
LOOKING PRETTY LIGHT IF ANYTHING AT ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SMOKE/HAZE TODAY. FEEL LIKE THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT AS UPPER FLOW IS THE SAME AS MONDAY. BUT WE ALSO HAVE
CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE AREA AS
MOISTURE MOVES AROUND THE 500 MB HIGH OVER UTAH. WEAK SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CNTRL/WRN ND CAUSING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDER JUST WEST OF FCST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL
KEEP PATTERN PRETTY STABLE THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST ONLY SLOWLY ABLE TO MOVE EAST INTO ERN ND TODAY THRU
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING MOST OF NW MN TO BE DRY.  GFS/NAM ARE A BIT
MORE BULLISH WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT SO DID PUSH THE
POPS A TAD FARTHER EAST THAN SOME OF THE VERY SHORT RANGE MODELS
(WRFS) WOULD SAY. TEMPS NEAR AVERAGE AND LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV
FCST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT WAVES AND A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CNTRL ND INTO ERN SD AND SRN MN WITH BEST BET FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS IN THIS REGION. DID KEEP LOWER POPS WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN THE RRV AND PARTS OF NW/WCNTRL MN AS AREA IS ON THE
FENCE BETWEEN DRY CONDITIONS OVER NW ONTARIO AND WETTER CONDITIONS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO INDICATE NW FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS A DEEP UPPER LOW PROPAGATES THROUGH
CANADA. THE STRONGEST MODEL SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY (ECMWF ABOUT
12 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE GFS). TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES AHEAD OF THE COLD FROPA...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES
TO START THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

K DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AFFECTING SFC VSBY ANY LONGER.  OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SPOTTY SHRA COULD
REACH INTO THE DVL AREA THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN LIGHT WITH NO T
EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KBIS 301502
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1002 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES HAS BEGUN TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THE
PAST HOUR OR SO...WITH VISIBILITY IN WILLISTON RISING FROM 1-2 MILES
TO 4 MILES...THOUGH CROSBY IS STILL REPORTING 1 MILE VISIBILITY.
WILL REVISIT THIS ISSUE AROUND NOON TO SEE WHETHER MIXING WITH WINDS
AND POTENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS HELPS MIX OUT THE SMOKE AT THE SURFACE.

BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAS SHIFTED INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH THE SOUTHWEST FREE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HAVE UPDATED
PRECIP CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WE ARE STILL EXPECTING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST
BY MID-AFTERNOON...WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THIS ISSUANCE. TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY...ONE MOVING EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ND...THE OTHER
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH ZERO LIGHTNING STRIKES THE PAST FEW HOURS.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLD THUNDER MENTION THROUGH THE AM
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN ONE AND THREE MILES ACROSS
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WILL CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE SMOKY CONDITIONS NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND LET THE DAYSHIFT RE-EVALUATE LATER IN THE MORNING.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT PAST THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY...IS NOW LOCATED
ROUGHLY FROM BOWBELLS...TO STANLEY...SOUTH TO GLEN ULLIN AND INTO
MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR SHOWED A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...RIDING OVER THIS FRONT RESULTING IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MORTON/GRANT/SIOUX/EMMONS
COUNTIES...AND INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING
ACTIVITY AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWS REFLECTIVITYS INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND EASTERN MONTANA..ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LEADING SHORTWAVE. AS
THIS SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...EXPECTING RENEWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE AREAL COVERAGE TODAY...BUT TIMING HOW
LONG AND WHICH AREAS WILL BE DIFFICULT. HAVE PRETTY MUCH TRENDED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING THEN
INCREASED TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...SHIFTS
INTO NORTHEAST/EASTERN MONTANA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND A FORMIDABLE FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. REMNANTS OF THIS MORNINGS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MENTIONED ABOVE MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FURTHER WEST. SPC HAS
NOW INCREASED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK CATEGORY TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEST...AND EXPANDED THE MARGINAL AREA TO NEAR CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/AND
CLOSER TO THE FRONT/GREATEST SHEAR WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
COUPLE OF TORNADOS. CAPE VALUES PER GFS INCREASE TO AROUND
1000-1300 J/KG WEST WITH IMPRESSIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55-60KT.
THE ECMWF ADVERTISES CAPE OF AROUND 1800 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULKSHEAR
OF 50-55KT. HAVE INJECTED SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDDED DATA/POINT
AND CLICK...AND WILL CARRY THIS MESSAGE OUT INTO THE STATE FORECAST/HWO
FOR CONSISTENCY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THROUGH THURSDAY...SEVERAL EMBEDDED
WAVES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY/REDEVELOPING SURFACE BOUNDARY BRINGING DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. KEPT WORDING AT CHANCE UNTIL WE
GET CLOSER TO SPECIFIC PERIODS WHEN POPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE BETTER
FINE-TUNED. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME ACROSS THE WEST NEAR A STATIONARY SFC TROUGH WHERE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ROBUST BULK SHEAR.

WILL GO WITH A DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD WHEN MODELS MOVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.

DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES
SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK
INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S AFTER HIGHS WED & THURS 70-80. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT -
SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WHEN MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COUPLED TOGETHER. SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP
LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SECONDARY/BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE 70S FOR SUNDAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT 60S ACROSS THE EAST DEPENDING
ON HOW STRONG THE CAA IS DEPICTED FOR MONDAY OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL
RUNS. WE WARM BACK UP MID-WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VSBYS AT KISN TO AROUND 2SM/MVFR
THROUGH 18Z...POSSIBLY LONGER. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD HELP TEMPORARY
IMPROVE VSBYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KJMS THROUGH 18Z...THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM KISN
SOUTH TO KDIK. HAVE KEPT CIGS VFR ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER 00Z. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME FOR A PREDOMINATE
MVFR GROUP.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 301502
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1002 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES HAS BEGUN TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THE
PAST HOUR OR SO...WITH VISIBILITY IN WILLISTON RISING FROM 1-2 MILES
TO 4 MILES...THOUGH CROSBY IS STILL REPORTING 1 MILE VISIBILITY.
WILL REVISIT THIS ISSUE AROUND NOON TO SEE WHETHER MIXING WITH WINDS
AND POTENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS HELPS MIX OUT THE SMOKE AT THE SURFACE.

BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAS SHIFTED INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH THE SOUTHWEST FREE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HAVE UPDATED
PRECIP CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WE ARE STILL EXPECTING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST
BY MID-AFTERNOON...WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THIS ISSUANCE. TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY...ONE MOVING EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ND...THE OTHER
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH ZERO LIGHTNING STRIKES THE PAST FEW HOURS.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLD THUNDER MENTION THROUGH THE AM
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN ONE AND THREE MILES ACROSS
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WILL CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE SMOKY CONDITIONS NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND LET THE DAYSHIFT RE-EVALUATE LATER IN THE MORNING.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT PAST THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY...IS NOW LOCATED
ROUGHLY FROM BOWBELLS...TO STANLEY...SOUTH TO GLEN ULLIN AND INTO
MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR SHOWED A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...RIDING OVER THIS FRONT RESULTING IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MORTON/GRANT/SIOUX/EMMONS
COUNTIES...AND INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING
ACTIVITY AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWS REFLECTIVITYS INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND EASTERN MONTANA..ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LEADING SHORTWAVE. AS
THIS SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...EXPECTING RENEWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE AREAL COVERAGE TODAY...BUT TIMING HOW
LONG AND WHICH AREAS WILL BE DIFFICULT. HAVE PRETTY MUCH TRENDED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING THEN
INCREASED TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...SHIFTS
INTO NORTHEAST/EASTERN MONTANA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND A FORMIDABLE FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. REMNANTS OF THIS MORNINGS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MENTIONED ABOVE MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FURTHER WEST. SPC HAS
NOW INCREASED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK CATEGORY TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEST...AND EXPANDED THE MARGINAL AREA TO NEAR CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/AND
CLOSER TO THE FRONT/GREATEST SHEAR WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
COUPLE OF TORNADOS. CAPE VALUES PER GFS INCREASE TO AROUND
1000-1300 J/KG WEST WITH IMPRESSIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55-60KT.
THE ECMWF ADVERTISES CAPE OF AROUND 1800 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULKSHEAR
OF 50-55KT. HAVE INJECTED SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDDED DATA/POINT
AND CLICK...AND WILL CARRY THIS MESSAGE OUT INTO THE STATE FORECAST/HWO
FOR CONSISTENCY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THROUGH THURSDAY...SEVERAL EMBEDDED
WAVES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY/REDEVELOPING SURFACE BOUNDARY BRINGING DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. KEPT WORDING AT CHANCE UNTIL WE
GET CLOSER TO SPECIFIC PERIODS WHEN POPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE BETTER
FINE-TUNED. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME ACROSS THE WEST NEAR A STATIONARY SFC TROUGH WHERE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ROBUST BULK SHEAR.

WILL GO WITH A DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD WHEN MODELS MOVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.

DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES
SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK
INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S AFTER HIGHS WED & THURS 70-80. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT -
SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WHEN MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COUPLED TOGETHER. SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP
LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SECONDARY/BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE 70S FOR SUNDAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT 60S ACROSS THE EAST DEPENDING
ON HOW STRONG THE CAA IS DEPICTED FOR MONDAY OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL
RUNS. WE WARM BACK UP MID-WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VSBYS AT KISN TO AROUND 2SM/MVFR
THROUGH 18Z...POSSIBLY LONGER. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD HELP TEMPORARY
IMPROVE VSBYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KJMS THROUGH 18Z...THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM KISN
SOUTH TO KDIK. HAVE KEPT CIGS VFR ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER 00Z. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME FOR A PREDOMINATE
MVFR GROUP.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 301440
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STILL SOME HAZE/FOG BEING REPORTED...BUT THINK CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY MAINLY CLOUDY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH MORE FILTERED SUN TO THE
EAST. SMOKE LAYER IS BEING MASKED BY OTHER CLOUDS TODAY BUT IT IS
STILL THERE. ONLY UPDATE AT THIS POINT WILL BE TO REMOVE ANY PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN FA UNTIL AFTER NOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SMOKE/HAZE TODAY. FEEL LIKE THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT AS UPPER FLOW IS THE SAME AS MONDAY. BUT WE ALSO HAVE
CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE AREA AS
MOISTURE MOVES AROUND THE 500 MB HIGH OVER UTAH. WEAK SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CNTRL/WRN ND CAUSING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDER JUST WEST OF FCST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL
KEEP PATTERN PRETTY STABLE THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST ONLY SLOWLY ABLE TO MOVE EAST INTO ERN ND TODAY THRU
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING MOST OF NW MN TO BE DRY.  GFS/NAM ARE A BIT
MORE BULLISH WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT SO DID PUSH THE
POPS A TAD FARTHER EAST THAN SOME OF THE VERY SHORT RANGE MODELS
(WRFS) WOULD SAY. TEMPS NEAR AVERAGE AND LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV
FCST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT WAVES AND A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CNTRL ND INTO ERN SD AND SRN MN WITH BEST BET FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS IN THIS REGION. DID KEEP LOWER POPS WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN THE RRV AND PARTS OF NW/WCNTRL MN AS AREA IS ON THE
FENCE BETWEEN DRY CONDITIONS OVER NW ONTARIO AND WETTER CONDITIONS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO INDICATE NW FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS A DEEP UPPER LOW PROPAGATES THROUGH
CANADA. THE STRONGEST MODEL SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY (ECMWF ABOUT
12 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE GFS). TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES AHEAD OF THE COLD FROPA...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES
TO START THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PATCHY FOG AROUND THRU 14Z...ONLY BRIEFING IMPACTING TAF SITES GFK
AND FAR. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR LIGHT WINDS TODAY...PREDOMINATELY
NORTHEAST UNDER 10 KTS...ALONG WITH SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
SMOKE STILL PRESENT THRU THE DAY HOWEVER MAKING CONDITIONS LESS
THAN IDEAL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 301440
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STILL SOME HAZE/FOG BEING REPORTED...BUT THINK CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY MAINLY CLOUDY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH MORE FILTERED SUN TO THE
EAST. SMOKE LAYER IS BEING MASKED BY OTHER CLOUDS TODAY BUT IT IS
STILL THERE. ONLY UPDATE AT THIS POINT WILL BE TO REMOVE ANY PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN FA UNTIL AFTER NOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SMOKE/HAZE TODAY. FEEL LIKE THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT AS UPPER FLOW IS THE SAME AS MONDAY. BUT WE ALSO HAVE
CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE AREA AS
MOISTURE MOVES AROUND THE 500 MB HIGH OVER UTAH. WEAK SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CNTRL/WRN ND CAUSING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDER JUST WEST OF FCST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL
KEEP PATTERN PRETTY STABLE THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST ONLY SLOWLY ABLE TO MOVE EAST INTO ERN ND TODAY THRU
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING MOST OF NW MN TO BE DRY.  GFS/NAM ARE A BIT
MORE BULLISH WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT SO DID PUSH THE
POPS A TAD FARTHER EAST THAN SOME OF THE VERY SHORT RANGE MODELS
(WRFS) WOULD SAY. TEMPS NEAR AVERAGE AND LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV
FCST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT WAVES AND A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CNTRL ND INTO ERN SD AND SRN MN WITH BEST BET FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS IN THIS REGION. DID KEEP LOWER POPS WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN THE RRV AND PARTS OF NW/WCNTRL MN AS AREA IS ON THE
FENCE BETWEEN DRY CONDITIONS OVER NW ONTARIO AND WETTER CONDITIONS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO INDICATE NW FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS A DEEP UPPER LOW PROPAGATES THROUGH
CANADA. THE STRONGEST MODEL SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY (ECMWF ABOUT
12 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE GFS). TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES AHEAD OF THE COLD FROPA...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES
TO START THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PATCHY FOG AROUND THRU 14Z...ONLY BRIEFING IMPACTING TAF SITES GFK
AND FAR. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR LIGHT WINDS TODAY...PREDOMINATELY
NORTHEAST UNDER 10 KTS...ALONG WITH SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
SMOKE STILL PRESENT THRU THE DAY HOWEVER MAKING CONDITIONS LESS
THAN IDEAL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE



000
FXUS63 KFGF 301202
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
702 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PATCHY FOG AROUND THE AREA...BUT VSBYS AT ANY ONE PLACE NOT
STAYING TOO LOW FOR TOO LONG. CIRRUS THICKEST IN FAR WRN FCST AREA
WITH THIN CIRRUS RRV AND NW MN. NOT THAT YOU CAN TELL WITH
SMOKE/HAZE.  FCST UNCHANGED.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SMOKE/HAZE TODAY. FEEL LIKE THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT AS UPPER FLOW IS THE SAME AS MONDAY. BUT WE ALSO HAVE
CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE AREA AS
MOISTURE MOVES AROUND THE 500 MB HIGH OVER UTAH. WEAK SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CNTRL/WRN ND CAUSING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDER JUST WEST OF FCST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL
KEEP PATTERN PRETTY STABLE THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST ONLY SLOWLY ABLE TO MOVE EAST INTO ERN ND TODAY THRU
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING MOST OF NW MN TO BE DRY.  GFS/NAM ARE A BIT
MORE BULLISH WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT SO DID PUSH THE
POPS A TAD FARTHER EAST THAN SOME OF THE VERY SHORT RANGE MODELS
(WRFS) WOULD SAY. TEMPS NEAR AVERAGE AND LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV
FCST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT WAVES AND A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CNTRL ND INTO ERN SD AND SRN MN WITH BEST BET FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS IN THIS REGION. DID KEEP LOWER POPS WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN THE RRV AND PARTS OF NW/WCNTRL MN AS AREA IS ON THE
FENCE BETWEEN DRY CONDITIONS OVER NW ONTARIO AND WETTER CONDITIONS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO INDICATE NW FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS A DEEP UPPER LOW PROPAGATES THROUGH
CANADA. THE STRONGEST MODEL SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY (ECMWF ABOUT
12 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE GFS). TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES AHEAD OF THE COLD FROPA...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES
TO START THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PATCHY FOG AROUND THRU 14Z...ONLY BRIEFING IMPACTING TAF SITES GFK
AND FAR. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR LIGHT WINDS TODAY...PREDOMINATELY
NORTHEAST UNDER 10 KTS...ALONG WITH SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
SMOKE STILL PRESENT THRU THE DAY HOWEVER MAKING CONDITIONS LESS
THAN IDEAL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 301202
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
702 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PATCHY FOG AROUND THE AREA...BUT VSBYS AT ANY ONE PLACE NOT
STAYING TOO LOW FOR TOO LONG. CIRRUS THICKEST IN FAR WRN FCST AREA
WITH THIN CIRRUS RRV AND NW MN. NOT THAT YOU CAN TELL WITH
SMOKE/HAZE.  FCST UNCHANGED.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SMOKE/HAZE TODAY. FEEL LIKE THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT AS UPPER FLOW IS THE SAME AS MONDAY. BUT WE ALSO HAVE
CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE AREA AS
MOISTURE MOVES AROUND THE 500 MB HIGH OVER UTAH. WEAK SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CNTRL/WRN ND CAUSING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDER JUST WEST OF FCST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL
KEEP PATTERN PRETTY STABLE THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST ONLY SLOWLY ABLE TO MOVE EAST INTO ERN ND TODAY THRU
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING MOST OF NW MN TO BE DRY.  GFS/NAM ARE A BIT
MORE BULLISH WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT SO DID PUSH THE
POPS A TAD FARTHER EAST THAN SOME OF THE VERY SHORT RANGE MODELS
(WRFS) WOULD SAY. TEMPS NEAR AVERAGE AND LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV
FCST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT WAVES AND A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CNTRL ND INTO ERN SD AND SRN MN WITH BEST BET FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS IN THIS REGION. DID KEEP LOWER POPS WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN THE RRV AND PARTS OF NW/WCNTRL MN AS AREA IS ON THE
FENCE BETWEEN DRY CONDITIONS OVER NW ONTARIO AND WETTER CONDITIONS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO INDICATE NW FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS A DEEP UPPER LOW PROPAGATES THROUGH
CANADA. THE STRONGEST MODEL SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY (ECMWF ABOUT
12 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE GFS). TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES AHEAD OF THE COLD FROPA...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES
TO START THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PATCHY FOG AROUND THRU 14Z...ONLY BRIEFING IMPACTING TAF SITES GFK
AND FAR. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR LIGHT WINDS TODAY...PREDOMINATELY
NORTHEAST UNDER 10 KTS...ALONG WITH SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
SMOKE STILL PRESENT THRU THE DAY HOWEVER MAKING CONDITIONS LESS
THAN IDEAL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE



000
FXUS63 KBIS 301123
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
623 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THIS ISSUANCE. TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY...ONE MOVING EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ND...THE OTHER
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH ZERO LIGHTNING STRIKES THE PAST FEW HOURS.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLD THUNDER MENTION THROUGH THE AM
HOURS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN ONE AND THREE MILES ACROSS
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WILL CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE SMOKY CONDITIONS NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND LET THE DAYSHIFT RE-EVALUATE LATER IN THE MORNING.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT PAST THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY...IS NOW LOCATED
ROUGHLY FROM BOWBELLS...TO STANLEY...SOUTH TO GLEN ULLIN AND INTO
MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR SHOWED A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...RIDING OVER THIS FRONT RESULTING IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MORTON/GRANT/SIOUX/EMMONS
COUNTIES...AND INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING
ACTIVITY AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWS REFLECTIVITYS INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND EASTERN MONTANA..ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LEADING SHORTWAVE. AS
THIS SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...EXPECTING RENEWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE AREAL COVERAGE TODAY...BUT TIMING HOW
LONG AND WHICH AREAS WILL BE DIFFICULT. HAVE PRETTY MUCH TRENDED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING THEN
INCREASED TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...SHIFTS
INTO NORTHEAST/EASTERN MONTANA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND A FORMIDABLE FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. REMNANTS OF THIS MORNINGS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MENTIONED ABOVE MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FURTHER WEST. SPC HAS
NOW INCREASED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK CATEGORY TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEST...AND EXPANDED THE MARGINAL AREA TO NEAR CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/AND
CLOSER TO THE FRONT/GREATEST SHEAR WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
COUPLE OF TORNADOS. CAPE VALUES PER GFS INCREASE TO AROUND
1000-1300 J/KG WEST WITH IMPRESSIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55-60KT.
THE ECMWF ADVERTISES CAPE OF AROUND 1800 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULKSHEAR
OF 50-55KT. HAVE INJECTED SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDDED DATA/POINT
AND CLICK...AND WILL CARRY THIS MESSAGE OUT INTO THE STATE FORECAST/HWO
FOR CONSISTENCY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THROUGH THURSDAY...SEVERAL EMBEDDED
WAVES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY/REDEVELOPING SURFACE BOUNDARY BRINGING DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. KEPT WORDING AT CHANCE UNTIL WE
GET CLOSER TO SPECIFIC PERIODS WHEN POPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE BETTER
FINE-TUNED. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME ACROSS THE WEST NEAR A STATIONARY SFC TROUGH WHERE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ROBUST BULK SHEAR.

WILL GO WITH A DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD WHEN MODELS MOVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.

DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES
SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK
INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S AFTER HIGHS WED & THURS 70-80. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT -
SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WHEN MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COUPLED TOGETHER. SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP
LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SECONDARY/BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE 70S FOR SUNDAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT 60S ACROSS THE EAST DEPENDING
ON HOW STRONG THE CAA IS DEPICTED FOR MONDAY OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL
RUNS. WE WARM BACK UP MID-WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VSBYS AT KISN TO AROUND 2SM/MVFR
THROUGH 18Z...POSSIBLY LONGER. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD HELP TEMPORARY
IMPROVE VSBYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KJMS THROUGH 18Z...THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM KISN
SOUTH TO KDIK. HAVE KEPT CIGS VFR ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER 00Z. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME FOR A PREDOMINATE
MVFR GROUP.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 301123
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
623 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THIS ISSUANCE. TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY...ONE MOVING EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ND...THE OTHER
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH ZERO LIGHTNING STRIKES THE PAST FEW HOURS.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLD THUNDER MENTION THROUGH THE AM
HOURS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN ONE AND THREE MILES ACROSS
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WILL CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE SMOKY CONDITIONS NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND LET THE DAYSHIFT RE-EVALUATE LATER IN THE MORNING.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT PAST THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY...IS NOW LOCATED
ROUGHLY FROM BOWBELLS...TO STANLEY...SOUTH TO GLEN ULLIN AND INTO
MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR SHOWED A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...RIDING OVER THIS FRONT RESULTING IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MORTON/GRANT/SIOUX/EMMONS
COUNTIES...AND INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING
ACTIVITY AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWS REFLECTIVITYS INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND EASTERN MONTANA..ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LEADING SHORTWAVE. AS
THIS SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...EXPECTING RENEWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE AREAL COVERAGE TODAY...BUT TIMING HOW
LONG AND WHICH AREAS WILL BE DIFFICULT. HAVE PRETTY MUCH TRENDED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING THEN
INCREASED TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...SHIFTS
INTO NORTHEAST/EASTERN MONTANA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND A FORMIDABLE FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. REMNANTS OF THIS MORNINGS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MENTIONED ABOVE MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FURTHER WEST. SPC HAS
NOW INCREASED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK CATEGORY TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEST...AND EXPANDED THE MARGINAL AREA TO NEAR CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/AND
CLOSER TO THE FRONT/GREATEST SHEAR WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
COUPLE OF TORNADOS. CAPE VALUES PER GFS INCREASE TO AROUND
1000-1300 J/KG WEST WITH IMPRESSIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55-60KT.
THE ECMWF ADVERTISES CAPE OF AROUND 1800 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULKSHEAR
OF 50-55KT. HAVE INJECTED SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDDED DATA/POINT
AND CLICK...AND WILL CARRY THIS MESSAGE OUT INTO THE STATE FORECAST/HWO
FOR CONSISTENCY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THROUGH THURSDAY...SEVERAL EMBEDDED
WAVES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY/REDEVELOPING SURFACE BOUNDARY BRINGING DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. KEPT WORDING AT CHANCE UNTIL WE
GET CLOSER TO SPECIFIC PERIODS WHEN POPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE BETTER
FINE-TUNED. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME ACROSS THE WEST NEAR A STATIONARY SFC TROUGH WHERE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ROBUST BULK SHEAR.

WILL GO WITH A DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD WHEN MODELS MOVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.

DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES
SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK
INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S AFTER HIGHS WED & THURS 70-80. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT -
SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WHEN MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COUPLED TOGETHER. SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP
LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SECONDARY/BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE 70S FOR SUNDAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT 60S ACROSS THE EAST DEPENDING
ON HOW STRONG THE CAA IS DEPICTED FOR MONDAY OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL
RUNS. WE WARM BACK UP MID-WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VSBYS AT KISN TO AROUND 2SM/MVFR
THROUGH 18Z...POSSIBLY LONGER. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD HELP TEMPORARY
IMPROVE VSBYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KJMS THROUGH 18Z...THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM KISN
SOUTH TO KDIK. HAVE KEPT CIGS VFR ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER 00Z. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME FOR A PREDOMINATE
MVFR GROUP.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 301123
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
623 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THIS ISSUANCE. TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY...ONE MOVING EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ND...THE OTHER
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH ZERO LIGHTNING STRIKES THE PAST FEW HOURS.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLD THUNDER MENTION THROUGH THE AM
HOURS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN ONE AND THREE MILES ACROSS
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WILL CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE SMOKY CONDITIONS NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND LET THE DAYSHIFT RE-EVALUATE LATER IN THE MORNING.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT PAST THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY...IS NOW LOCATED
ROUGHLY FROM BOWBELLS...TO STANLEY...SOUTH TO GLEN ULLIN AND INTO
MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR SHOWED A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...RIDING OVER THIS FRONT RESULTING IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MORTON/GRANT/SIOUX/EMMONS
COUNTIES...AND INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING
ACTIVITY AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWS REFLECTIVITYS INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND EASTERN MONTANA..ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LEADING SHORTWAVE. AS
THIS SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...EXPECTING RENEWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE AREAL COVERAGE TODAY...BUT TIMING HOW
LONG AND WHICH AREAS WILL BE DIFFICULT. HAVE PRETTY MUCH TRENDED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING THEN
INCREASED TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...SHIFTS
INTO NORTHEAST/EASTERN MONTANA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND A FORMIDABLE FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. REMNANTS OF THIS MORNINGS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MENTIONED ABOVE MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FURTHER WEST. SPC HAS
NOW INCREASED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK CATEGORY TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEST...AND EXPANDED THE MARGINAL AREA TO NEAR CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/AND
CLOSER TO THE FRONT/GREATEST SHEAR WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
COUPLE OF TORNADOS. CAPE VALUES PER GFS INCREASE TO AROUND
1000-1300 J/KG WEST WITH IMPRESSIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55-60KT.
THE ECMWF ADVERTISES CAPE OF AROUND 1800 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULKSHEAR
OF 50-55KT. HAVE INJECTED SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDDED DATA/POINT
AND CLICK...AND WILL CARRY THIS MESSAGE OUT INTO THE STATE FORECAST/HWO
FOR CONSISTENCY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THROUGH THURSDAY...SEVERAL EMBEDDED
WAVES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY/REDEVELOPING SURFACE BOUNDARY BRINGING DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. KEPT WORDING AT CHANCE UNTIL WE
GET CLOSER TO SPECIFIC PERIODS WHEN POPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE BETTER
FINE-TUNED. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME ACROSS THE WEST NEAR A STATIONARY SFC TROUGH WHERE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ROBUST BULK SHEAR.

WILL GO WITH A DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD WHEN MODELS MOVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.

DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES
SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK
INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S AFTER HIGHS WED & THURS 70-80. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT -
SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WHEN MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COUPLED TOGETHER. SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP
LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SECONDARY/BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE 70S FOR SUNDAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT 60S ACROSS THE EAST DEPENDING
ON HOW STRONG THE CAA IS DEPICTED FOR MONDAY OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL
RUNS. WE WARM BACK UP MID-WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VSBYS AT KISN TO AROUND 2SM/MVFR
THROUGH 18Z...POSSIBLY LONGER. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD HELP TEMPORARY
IMPROVE VSBYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KJMS THROUGH 18Z...THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM KISN
SOUTH TO KDIK. HAVE KEPT CIGS VFR ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER 00Z. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME FOR A PREDOMINATE
MVFR GROUP.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 301123
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
623 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THIS ISSUANCE. TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY...ONE MOVING EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ND...THE OTHER
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH ZERO LIGHTNING STRIKES THE PAST FEW HOURS.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLD THUNDER MENTION THROUGH THE AM
HOURS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN ONE AND THREE MILES ACROSS
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WILL CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE SMOKY CONDITIONS NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND LET THE DAYSHIFT RE-EVALUATE LATER IN THE MORNING.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT PAST THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY...IS NOW LOCATED
ROUGHLY FROM BOWBELLS...TO STANLEY...SOUTH TO GLEN ULLIN AND INTO
MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR SHOWED A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...RIDING OVER THIS FRONT RESULTING IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MORTON/GRANT/SIOUX/EMMONS
COUNTIES...AND INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING
ACTIVITY AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWS REFLECTIVITYS INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND EASTERN MONTANA..ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LEADING SHORTWAVE. AS
THIS SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...EXPECTING RENEWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE AREAL COVERAGE TODAY...BUT TIMING HOW
LONG AND WHICH AREAS WILL BE DIFFICULT. HAVE PRETTY MUCH TRENDED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING THEN
INCREASED TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...SHIFTS
INTO NORTHEAST/EASTERN MONTANA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND A FORMIDABLE FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. REMNANTS OF THIS MORNINGS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MENTIONED ABOVE MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FURTHER WEST. SPC HAS
NOW INCREASED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK CATEGORY TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEST...AND EXPANDED THE MARGINAL AREA TO NEAR CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/AND
CLOSER TO THE FRONT/GREATEST SHEAR WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
COUPLE OF TORNADOS. CAPE VALUES PER GFS INCREASE TO AROUND
1000-1300 J/KG WEST WITH IMPRESSIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55-60KT.
THE ECMWF ADVERTISES CAPE OF AROUND 1800 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULKSHEAR
OF 50-55KT. HAVE INJECTED SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDDED DATA/POINT
AND CLICK...AND WILL CARRY THIS MESSAGE OUT INTO THE STATE FORECAST/HWO
FOR CONSISTENCY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THROUGH THURSDAY...SEVERAL EMBEDDED
WAVES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY/REDEVELOPING SURFACE BOUNDARY BRINGING DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. KEPT WORDING AT CHANCE UNTIL WE
GET CLOSER TO SPECIFIC PERIODS WHEN POPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE BETTER
FINE-TUNED. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME ACROSS THE WEST NEAR A STATIONARY SFC TROUGH WHERE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ROBUST BULK SHEAR.

WILL GO WITH A DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD WHEN MODELS MOVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.

DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES
SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK
INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S AFTER HIGHS WED & THURS 70-80. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT -
SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WHEN MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COUPLED TOGETHER. SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP
LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SECONDARY/BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE 70S FOR SUNDAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT 60S ACROSS THE EAST DEPENDING
ON HOW STRONG THE CAA IS DEPICTED FOR MONDAY OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL
RUNS. WE WARM BACK UP MID-WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VSBYS AT KISN TO AROUND 2SM/MVFR
THROUGH 18Z...POSSIBLY LONGER. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD HELP TEMPORARY
IMPROVE VSBYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KJMS THROUGH 18Z...THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM KISN
SOUTH TO KDIK. HAVE KEPT CIGS VFR ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER 00Z. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME FOR A PREDOMINATE
MVFR GROUP.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 301123
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
623 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THIS ISSUANCE. TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY...ONE MOVING EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ND...THE OTHER
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH ZERO LIGHTNING STRIKES THE PAST FEW HOURS.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLD THUNDER MENTION THROUGH THE AM
HOURS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN ONE AND THREE MILES ACROSS
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WILL CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE SMOKY CONDITIONS NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND LET THE DAYSHIFT RE-EVALUATE LATER IN THE MORNING.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT PAST THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY...IS NOW LOCATED
ROUGHLY FROM BOWBELLS...TO STANLEY...SOUTH TO GLEN ULLIN AND INTO
MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR SHOWED A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...RIDING OVER THIS FRONT RESULTING IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MORTON/GRANT/SIOUX/EMMONS
COUNTIES...AND INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING
ACTIVITY AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWS REFLECTIVITYS INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND EASTERN MONTANA..ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LEADING SHORTWAVE. AS
THIS SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...EXPECTING RENEWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE AREAL COVERAGE TODAY...BUT TIMING HOW
LONG AND WHICH AREAS WILL BE DIFFICULT. HAVE PRETTY MUCH TRENDED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING THEN
INCREASED TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...SHIFTS
INTO NORTHEAST/EASTERN MONTANA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND A FORMIDABLE FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. REMNANTS OF THIS MORNINGS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MENTIONED ABOVE MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FURTHER WEST. SPC HAS
NOW INCREASED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK CATEGORY TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEST...AND EXPANDED THE MARGINAL AREA TO NEAR CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/AND
CLOSER TO THE FRONT/GREATEST SHEAR WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
COUPLE OF TORNADOS. CAPE VALUES PER GFS INCREASE TO AROUND
1000-1300 J/KG WEST WITH IMPRESSIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55-60KT.
THE ECMWF ADVERTISES CAPE OF AROUND 1800 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULKSHEAR
OF 50-55KT. HAVE INJECTED SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDDED DATA/POINT
AND CLICK...AND WILL CARRY THIS MESSAGE OUT INTO THE STATE FORECAST/HWO
FOR CONSISTENCY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THROUGH THURSDAY...SEVERAL EMBEDDED
WAVES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY/REDEVELOPING SURFACE BOUNDARY BRINGING DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. KEPT WORDING AT CHANCE UNTIL WE
GET CLOSER TO SPECIFIC PERIODS WHEN POPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE BETTER
FINE-TUNED. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME ACROSS THE WEST NEAR A STATIONARY SFC TROUGH WHERE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ROBUST BULK SHEAR.

WILL GO WITH A DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD WHEN MODELS MOVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.

DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES
SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK
INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S AFTER HIGHS WED & THURS 70-80. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT -
SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WHEN MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COUPLED TOGETHER. SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP
LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SECONDARY/BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE 70S FOR SUNDAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT 60S ACROSS THE EAST DEPENDING
ON HOW STRONG THE CAA IS DEPICTED FOR MONDAY OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL
RUNS. WE WARM BACK UP MID-WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VSBYS AT KISN TO AROUND 2SM/MVFR
THROUGH 18Z...POSSIBLY LONGER. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD HELP TEMPORARY
IMPROVE VSBYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KJMS THROUGH 18Z...THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM KISN
SOUTH TO KDIK. HAVE KEPT CIGS VFR ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER 00Z. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME FOR A PREDOMINATE
MVFR GROUP.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 301123
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
623 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THIS ISSUANCE. TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY...ONE MOVING EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ND...THE OTHER
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH ZERO LIGHTNING STRIKES THE PAST FEW HOURS.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLD THUNDER MENTION THROUGH THE AM
HOURS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN ONE AND THREE MILES ACROSS
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WILL CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE SMOKY CONDITIONS NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND LET THE DAYSHIFT RE-EVALUATE LATER IN THE MORNING.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT PAST THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY...IS NOW LOCATED
ROUGHLY FROM BOWBELLS...TO STANLEY...SOUTH TO GLEN ULLIN AND INTO
MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR SHOWED A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...RIDING OVER THIS FRONT RESULTING IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MORTON/GRANT/SIOUX/EMMONS
COUNTIES...AND INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING
ACTIVITY AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWS REFLECTIVITYS INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND EASTERN MONTANA..ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LEADING SHORTWAVE. AS
THIS SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...EXPECTING RENEWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE AREAL COVERAGE TODAY...BUT TIMING HOW
LONG AND WHICH AREAS WILL BE DIFFICULT. HAVE PRETTY MUCH TRENDED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING THEN
INCREASED TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...SHIFTS
INTO NORTHEAST/EASTERN MONTANA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND A FORMIDABLE FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. REMNANTS OF THIS MORNINGS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MENTIONED ABOVE MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FURTHER WEST. SPC HAS
NOW INCREASED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK CATEGORY TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEST...AND EXPANDED THE MARGINAL AREA TO NEAR CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/AND
CLOSER TO THE FRONT/GREATEST SHEAR WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
COUPLE OF TORNADOS. CAPE VALUES PER GFS INCREASE TO AROUND
1000-1300 J/KG WEST WITH IMPRESSIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55-60KT.
THE ECMWF ADVERTISES CAPE OF AROUND 1800 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULKSHEAR
OF 50-55KT. HAVE INJECTED SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDDED DATA/POINT
AND CLICK...AND WILL CARRY THIS MESSAGE OUT INTO THE STATE FORECAST/HWO
FOR CONSISTENCY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THROUGH THURSDAY...SEVERAL EMBEDDED
WAVES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY/REDEVELOPING SURFACE BOUNDARY BRINGING DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. KEPT WORDING AT CHANCE UNTIL WE
GET CLOSER TO SPECIFIC PERIODS WHEN POPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE BETTER
FINE-TUNED. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME ACROSS THE WEST NEAR A STATIONARY SFC TROUGH WHERE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ROBUST BULK SHEAR.

WILL GO WITH A DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD WHEN MODELS MOVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.

DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES
SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK
INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S AFTER HIGHS WED & THURS 70-80. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT -
SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WHEN MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COUPLED TOGETHER. SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP
LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SECONDARY/BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE 70S FOR SUNDAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT 60S ACROSS THE EAST DEPENDING
ON HOW STRONG THE CAA IS DEPICTED FOR MONDAY OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL
RUNS. WE WARM BACK UP MID-WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VSBYS AT KISN TO AROUND 2SM/MVFR
THROUGH 18Z...POSSIBLY LONGER. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD HELP TEMPORARY
IMPROVE VSBYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KJMS THROUGH 18Z...THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM KISN
SOUTH TO KDIK. HAVE KEPT CIGS VFR ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER 00Z. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME FOR A PREDOMINATE
MVFR GROUP.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 300832
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN ONE AND THREE MILES ACROSS
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WILL CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE SMOKEY CONDITIONS NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND LET THE DAYSHIFT RE-EVALUATE LATER IN THE MORNING.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT PAST THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY...IS NOW LOCATED
ROUGHLY FROM BOWBELLS...TO STANLEY...SOUTH TO GLEN ULLIN AND INTO
MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR SHOWED A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...RIDING OVER THIS FRONT RESULTING IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MORTON/GRANT/SIOUX/EMMONS
COUNTIES...AND INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING
ACTIVITY AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWS REFLECTIVITYS INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND EASTERN MONTANA..ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LEADING SHORTWAVE. AS
THIS SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...EXPECTING RENEWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE AREAL COVERAGE TODAY...BUT TIMING HOW
LONG AND WHICH AREAS WILL BE DIFFICULT. HAVE PRETTY MUCH TRENDED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING THEN
INCREASED TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...SHIFTS
INTO NORTHEAST/EASTERN MONTANA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND A FORMIDABLE FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. REMNANTS OF THIS MORNINGS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MENTIONED ABOVE MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FURTHER WEST. SPC HAS
NOW INCREASED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK CATEGORY TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEST...AND EXPANDED THE MARGINAL AREA TO NEAR CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/AND
CLOSER TO THE FRONT/GREATEST SHEAR WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
COUPLE OF TORNADOS. CAPE VALUES PER GFS INCREASE TO AROUND
1000-1300 J/KG WEST WITH IMPRESSIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55-60KT.
THE ECMWF ADVERTISES CAPE OF AROUND 1800 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULKSHEAR
OF 50-55KT. HAVE INJECTED SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDDED DATA/POINT
AND CLICK...AND WILL CARRY THIS MESSAGE OUT INTO THE STATE FORECAST/HWO
FOR CONSISTENCY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THROUGH THURSDAY...SEVERAL EMBEDDED
WAVES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY/REDEVELOPING SURFACE BOUNDARY BRINGING DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. KEPT WORDING AT CHANCE UNTIL WE
GET CLOSER TO SPECIFIC PERIODS WHEN POPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE BETTER
FINE-TUNED. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME ACROSS THE WEST NEAR A STATIONARY SFC TROUGH WHERE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ROBUST BULK SHEAR.

WILL GO WITH A DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD WHEN MODELS MOVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.

DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES
SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK
INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S AFTER HIGHS WED & THURS 70-80. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT -
SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WHEN MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COUPLED TOGETHER. SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP
LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SECONDARY/BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE 70S FOR SUNDAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT 60S ACROSS THE EAST DEPENDING
ON HOW STRONG THE CAA IS DEPICTED FOR MONDAY OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL
RUNS. WE WARM BACK UP MID-WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE REDUCING VSBYS TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KISN THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. HAZE A CONCERN AT KBIS WHERE MVFR VSBYS HAVE
DEVELOPED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN KISN AND KBIS
SHOULD HELP VSBYS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING DOMINATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WHERE
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO PRECIPIATION...WENT WITH A
PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TIMEFRAME AS OPPOSED TO A VCSH/VCTS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 300832 CCA
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN ONE AND THREE MILES ACROSS
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WILL CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE SMOKY CONDITIONS NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND LET THE DAYSHIFT RE-EVALUATE LATER IN THE MORNING.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT PAST THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY...IS NOW LOCATED
ROUGHLY FROM BOWBELLS...TO STANLEY...SOUTH TO GLEN ULLIN AND INTO
MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR SHOWED A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...RIDING OVER THIS FRONT RESULTING IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MORTON/GRANT/SIOUX/EMMONS
COUNTIES...AND INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING
ACTIVITY AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWS REFLECTIVITYS INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND EASTERN MONTANA..ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LEADING SHORTWAVE. AS
THIS SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...EXPECTING RENEWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE AREAL COVERAGE TODAY...BUT TIMING HOW
LONG AND WHICH AREAS WILL BE DIFFICULT. HAVE PRETTY MUCH TRENDED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING THEN
INCREASED TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...SHIFTS
INTO NORTHEAST/EASTERN MONTANA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND A FORMIDABLE FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. REMNANTS OF THIS MORNINGS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MENTIONED ABOVE MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FURTHER WEST. SPC HAS
NOW INCREASED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK CATEGORY TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEST...AND EXPANDED THE MARGINAL AREA TO NEAR CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/AND
CLOSER TO THE FRONT/GREATEST SHEAR WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
COUPLE OF TORNADOS. CAPE VALUES PER GFS INCREASE TO AROUND
1000-1300 J/KG WEST WITH IMPRESSIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55-60KT.
THE ECMWF ADVERTISES CAPE OF AROUND 1800 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULKSHEAR
OF 50-55KT. HAVE INJECTED SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDDED DATA/POINT
AND CLICK...AND WILL CARRY THIS MESSAGE OUT INTO THE STATE FORECAST/HWO
FOR CONSISTENCY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THROUGH THURSDAY...SEVERAL EMBEDDED
WAVES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY/REDEVELOPING SURFACE BOUNDARY BRINGING DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. KEPT WORDING AT CHANCE UNTIL WE
GET CLOSER TO SPECIFIC PERIODS WHEN POPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE BETTER
FINE-TUNED. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME ACROSS THE WEST NEAR A STATIONARY SFC TROUGH WHERE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ROBUST BULK SHEAR.

WILL GO WITH A DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD WHEN MODELS MOVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.

DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES
SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK
INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S AFTER HIGHS WED & THURS 70-80. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT -
SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WHEN MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COUPLED TOGETHER. SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP
LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SECONDARY/BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE 70S FOR SUNDAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT 60S ACROSS THE EAST DEPENDING
ON HOW STRONG THE CAA IS DEPICTED FOR MONDAY OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL
RUNS. WE WARM BACK UP MID-WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE REDUCING VSBYS TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KISN THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. HAZE A CONCERN AT KBIS WHERE MVFR VSBYS HAVE
DEVELOPED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN KISN AND KBIS
SHOULD HELP VSBYS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING DOMINATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WHERE
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO PRECIPIATION...WENT WITH A
PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TIMEFRAME AS OPPOSED TO A VCSH/VCTS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 300832 CCA
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN ONE AND THREE MILES ACROSS
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WILL CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE SMOKY CONDITIONS NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND LET THE DAYSHIFT RE-EVALUATE LATER IN THE MORNING.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT PAST THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY...IS NOW LOCATED
ROUGHLY FROM BOWBELLS...TO STANLEY...SOUTH TO GLEN ULLIN AND INTO
MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR SHOWED A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...RIDING OVER THIS FRONT RESULTING IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MORTON/GRANT/SIOUX/EMMONS
COUNTIES...AND INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING
ACTIVITY AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWS REFLECTIVITYS INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND EASTERN MONTANA..ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LEADING SHORTWAVE. AS
THIS SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...EXPECTING RENEWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE AREAL COVERAGE TODAY...BUT TIMING HOW
LONG AND WHICH AREAS WILL BE DIFFICULT. HAVE PRETTY MUCH TRENDED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING THEN
INCREASED TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...SHIFTS
INTO NORTHEAST/EASTERN MONTANA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND A FORMIDABLE FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. REMNANTS OF THIS MORNINGS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MENTIONED ABOVE MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FURTHER WEST. SPC HAS
NOW INCREASED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK CATEGORY TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEST...AND EXPANDED THE MARGINAL AREA TO NEAR CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/AND
CLOSER TO THE FRONT/GREATEST SHEAR WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
COUPLE OF TORNADOS. CAPE VALUES PER GFS INCREASE TO AROUND
1000-1300 J/KG WEST WITH IMPRESSIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55-60KT.
THE ECMWF ADVERTISES CAPE OF AROUND 1800 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULKSHEAR
OF 50-55KT. HAVE INJECTED SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDDED DATA/POINT
AND CLICK...AND WILL CARRY THIS MESSAGE OUT INTO THE STATE FORECAST/HWO
FOR CONSISTENCY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THROUGH THURSDAY...SEVERAL EMBEDDED
WAVES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY/REDEVELOPING SURFACE BOUNDARY BRINGING DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. KEPT WORDING AT CHANCE UNTIL WE
GET CLOSER TO SPECIFIC PERIODS WHEN POPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE BETTER
FINE-TUNED. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME ACROSS THE WEST NEAR A STATIONARY SFC TROUGH WHERE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ROBUST BULK SHEAR.

WILL GO WITH A DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD WHEN MODELS MOVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.

DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES
SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK
INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S AFTER HIGHS WED & THURS 70-80. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT -
SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WHEN MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COUPLED TOGETHER. SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP
LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SECONDARY/BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE 70S FOR SUNDAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT 60S ACROSS THE EAST DEPENDING
ON HOW STRONG THE CAA IS DEPICTED FOR MONDAY OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL
RUNS. WE WARM BACK UP MID-WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE REDUCING VSBYS TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KISN THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. HAZE A CONCERN AT KBIS WHERE MVFR VSBYS HAVE
DEVELOPED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN KISN AND KBIS
SHOULD HELP VSBYS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING DOMINATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WHERE
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO PRECIPIATION...WENT WITH A
PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TIMEFRAME AS OPPOSED TO A VCSH/VCTS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 300832
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN ONE AND THREE MILES ACROSS
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WILL CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE SMOKEY CONDITIONS NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND LET THE DAYSHIFT RE-EVALUATE LATER IN THE MORNING.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT PAST THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY...IS NOW LOCATED
ROUGHLY FROM BOWBELLS...TO STANLEY...SOUTH TO GLEN ULLIN AND INTO
MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR SHOWED A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...RIDING OVER THIS FRONT RESULTING IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MORTON/GRANT/SIOUX/EMMONS
COUNTIES...AND INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING
ACTIVITY AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWS REFLECTIVITYS INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND EASTERN MONTANA..ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LEADING SHORTWAVE. AS
THIS SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...EXPECTING RENEWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE AREAL COVERAGE TODAY...BUT TIMING HOW
LONG AND WHICH AREAS WILL BE DIFFICULT. HAVE PRETTY MUCH TRENDED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING THEN
INCREASED TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...SHIFTS
INTO NORTHEAST/EASTERN MONTANA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND A FORMIDABLE FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. REMNANTS OF THIS MORNINGS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MENTIONED ABOVE MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FURTHER WEST. SPC HAS
NOW INCREASED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK CATEGORY TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEST...AND EXPANDED THE MARGINAL AREA TO NEAR CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/AND
CLOSER TO THE FRONT/GREATEST SHEAR WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
COUPLE OF TORNADOS. CAPE VALUES PER GFS INCREASE TO AROUND
1000-1300 J/KG WEST WITH IMPRESSIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55-60KT.
THE ECMWF ADVERTISES CAPE OF AROUND 1800 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULKSHEAR
OF 50-55KT. HAVE INJECTED SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDDED DATA/POINT
AND CLICK...AND WILL CARRY THIS MESSAGE OUT INTO THE STATE FORECAST/HWO
FOR CONSISTENCY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THROUGH THURSDAY...SEVERAL EMBEDDED
WAVES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY/REDEVELOPING SURFACE BOUNDARY BRINGING DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. KEPT WORDING AT CHANCE UNTIL WE
GET CLOSER TO SPECIFIC PERIODS WHEN POPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE BETTER
FINE-TUNED. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME ACROSS THE WEST NEAR A STATIONARY SFC TROUGH WHERE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ROBUST BULK SHEAR.

WILL GO WITH A DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD WHEN MODELS MOVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.

DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES
SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK
INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S AFTER HIGHS WED & THURS 70-80. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT -
SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WHEN MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COUPLED TOGETHER. SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP
LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SECONDARY/BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE 70S FOR SUNDAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT 60S ACROSS THE EAST DEPENDING
ON HOW STRONG THE CAA IS DEPICTED FOR MONDAY OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL
RUNS. WE WARM BACK UP MID-WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE REDUCING VSBYS TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KISN THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. HAZE A CONCERN AT KBIS WHERE MVFR VSBYS HAVE
DEVELOPED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN KISN AND KBIS
SHOULD HELP VSBYS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING DOMINATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WHERE
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO PRECIPIATION...WENT WITH A
PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TIMEFRAME AS OPPOSED TO A VCSH/VCTS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 300832
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN ONE AND THREE MILES ACROSS
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WILL CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE SMOKEY CONDITIONS NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND LET THE DAYSHIFT RE-EVALUATE LATER IN THE MORNING.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT PAST THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY...IS NOW LOCATED
ROUGHLY FROM BOWBELLS...TO STANLEY...SOUTH TO GLEN ULLIN AND INTO
MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR SHOWED A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...RIDING OVER THIS FRONT RESULTING IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MORTON/GRANT/SIOUX/EMMONS
COUNTIES...AND INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING
ACTIVITY AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWS REFLECTIVITYS INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND EASTERN MONTANA..ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LEADING SHORTWAVE. AS
THIS SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...EXPECTING RENEWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE AREAL COVERAGE TODAY...BUT TIMING HOW
LONG AND WHICH AREAS WILL BE DIFFICULT. HAVE PRETTY MUCH TRENDED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING THEN
INCREASED TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...SHIFTS
INTO NORTHEAST/EASTERN MONTANA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND A FORMIDABLE FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. REMNANTS OF THIS MORNINGS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MENTIONED ABOVE MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FURTHER WEST. SPC HAS
NOW INCREASED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK CATEGORY TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEST...AND EXPANDED THE MARGINAL AREA TO NEAR CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/AND
CLOSER TO THE FRONT/GREATEST SHEAR WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
COUPLE OF TORNADOS. CAPE VALUES PER GFS INCREASE TO AROUND
1000-1300 J/KG WEST WITH IMPRESSIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55-60KT.
THE ECMWF ADVERTISES CAPE OF AROUND 1800 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULKSHEAR
OF 50-55KT. HAVE INJECTED SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDDED DATA/POINT
AND CLICK...AND WILL CARRY THIS MESSAGE OUT INTO THE STATE FORECAST/HWO
FOR CONSISTENCY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THROUGH THURSDAY...SEVERAL EMBEDDED
WAVES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY/REDEVELOPING SURFACE BOUNDARY BRINGING DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. KEPT WORDING AT CHANCE UNTIL WE
GET CLOSER TO SPECIFIC PERIODS WHEN POPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE BETTER
FINE-TUNED. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME ACROSS THE WEST NEAR A STATIONARY SFC TROUGH WHERE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ROBUST BULK SHEAR.

WILL GO WITH A DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD WHEN MODELS MOVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.

DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES
SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK
INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S AFTER HIGHS WED & THURS 70-80. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT -
SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WHEN MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COUPLED TOGETHER. SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP
LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SECONDARY/BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE 70S FOR SUNDAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT 60S ACROSS THE EAST DEPENDING
ON HOW STRONG THE CAA IS DEPICTED FOR MONDAY OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL
RUNS. WE WARM BACK UP MID-WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE REDUCING VSBYS TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KISN THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. HAZE A CONCERN AT KBIS WHERE MVFR VSBYS HAVE
DEVELOPED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN KISN AND KBIS
SHOULD HELP VSBYS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING DOMINATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WHERE
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO PRECIPIATION...WENT WITH A
PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TIMEFRAME AS OPPOSED TO A VCSH/VCTS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 300822
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
322 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SMOKE/HAZE TODAY. FEEL LIKE THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT AS UPPER FLOW IS THE SAME AS MONDAY. BUT WE ALSO HAVE
CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE AREA AS
MOISTURE MOVES AROUND THE 500 MB HIGH OVER UTAH. WEAK SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CNTRL/WRN ND CAUSING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDER JUST WEST OF FCST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL
KEEP PATTERN PRETTY STABLE THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST ONLY SLOWLY ABLE TO MOVE EAST INTO ERN ND TODAY THRU
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING MOST OF NW MN TO BE DRY.  GFS/NAM ARE A BIT
MORE BULLISH WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT SO DID PUSH THE
POPS A TAD FARTHER EAST THAN SOME OF THE VERY SHORT RANGE MODELS
(WRFS) WOULD SAY. TEMPS NEAR AVERAGE AND LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV
FCST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT WAVES AND A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CNTRL ND INTO ERN SD AND SRN MN WITH BEST BET FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS IN THIS REGION. DID KEEP LOWER POPS WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN THE RRV AND PARTS OF NW/WCNTRL MN AS AREA IS ON THE
FENCE BETWEEN DRY CONDITIONS OVER NW ONTARIO AND WETTER CONDITIONS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO INDICATE NW FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS A DEEP UPPER LOW PROPAGATES THROUGH
CANADA. THE STRONGEST MODEL SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY (ECMWF ABOUT
12 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE GFS). TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES AHEAD OF THE COLD FROPA...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES
TO START THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VIS HAVE STAYED IN THE 7-10SM RANGE SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL GET
MUCH HAZE FORMING FROM THE SMOKE...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO BRING 20000 FT CIGS. SOME MORE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY STEADY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BUT STAY BELOW
12 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 300822
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
322 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SMOKE/HAZE TODAY. FEEL LIKE THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT AS UPPER FLOW IS THE SAME AS MONDAY. BUT WE ALSO HAVE
CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE AREA AS
MOISTURE MOVES AROUND THE 500 MB HIGH OVER UTAH. WEAK SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CNTRL/WRN ND CAUSING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDER JUST WEST OF FCST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL
KEEP PATTERN PRETTY STABLE THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST ONLY SLOWLY ABLE TO MOVE EAST INTO ERN ND TODAY THRU
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING MOST OF NW MN TO BE DRY.  GFS/NAM ARE A BIT
MORE BULLISH WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT SO DID PUSH THE
POPS A TAD FARTHER EAST THAN SOME OF THE VERY SHORT RANGE MODELS
(WRFS) WOULD SAY. TEMPS NEAR AVERAGE AND LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV
FCST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT WAVES AND A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CNTRL ND INTO ERN SD AND SRN MN WITH BEST BET FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS IN THIS REGION. DID KEEP LOWER POPS WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN THE RRV AND PARTS OF NW/WCNTRL MN AS AREA IS ON THE
FENCE BETWEEN DRY CONDITIONS OVER NW ONTARIO AND WETTER CONDITIONS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO INDICATE NW FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS A DEEP UPPER LOW PROPAGATES THROUGH
CANADA. THE STRONGEST MODEL SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY (ECMWF ABOUT
12 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE GFS). TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES AHEAD OF THE COLD FROPA...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES
TO START THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VIS HAVE STAYED IN THE 7-10SM RANGE SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL GET
MUCH HAZE FORMING FROM THE SMOKE...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO BRING 20000 FT CIGS. SOME MORE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY STEADY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BUT STAY BELOW
12 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR



000
FXUS63 KBIS 300644
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
144 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
MORTON/GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. MAY SEE
ACTIVITY EXPAND NORTH AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS IN THIS DIRECTION
ALONG WITH THUNDER MENTION BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. UPDATES
FORTHCOMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ALIGNED FROM NEAR
SHERWOOD TO GARRISON...AND SOUTH TO MANDAN AND LINTON. SOME CONVECTION
WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN FAR SOUTHERN EMMONS COUNTY
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BORDER. WATER VAPOR DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE
WORKING THROUGH SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WHICH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. CURRENT RADAR REFLECTIVITYS ARE WEAK ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST WITH THIS WAVE BUT WERE EXPANDING. THE HRRR/NAM12/GFS
PRODUCE A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH
12Z AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON THIS. CAPE IS SCARCE SO THINKING
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AT BEST...AND HAVE REDUCED
THUNDER MENTION TO THE FAR SOUTH. SMOKE STILL A PROBLEM IN THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP THAT GOING INTO THE MORNING THEN
RE-EVALUATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN UPDATE ISSUES WERE TO ADDRESS THE INCREASED SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN FIRES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK ON
TRACK FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT UNTIL THEN EXPECT
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A MILE OR TWO ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY TONIGHT SO WE ARE
UNSURE OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE SMOKE WILL TRAVEL. DID ADD SOME HAZE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SMOKE AND DID ISSUE AN SPS TO HEIGHTEN
AWARENESS OF THE SMOKE. REPORTS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA AND GLASGOW
SAID THAT YOU COULD SMELL THE SMOKE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHERN DUNN AND EASTERN STARK
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST. STILL VERY UNSTABLE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WITH 2-3 THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE...BUT NOTHING GET
THINGS STARTED. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWEST...AND INTO GRANT COUNTY THROUGH 9 PM. ALSO KEPT HAZE IN
THE EAST THROUGH SUNSET. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN BOWMAN AND HETTINGER. SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO GET GOING
HERE BUT HAVING A HARD TIME. DID SEE ONE CELL PRODUCE A LITTLE
LIGHTNING...AND ANOTHER MAY YET FORM. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH THROUGH DICKINSON AND DUNN COUNTY WHERE CU IS
A LITTLE MORE CONGESTED. ADDED SOME HAZE IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH OVER
HUDSON BAY WAS PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WAS EVIDENT ON SAT PICS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL SMOKE APPEARED
TO BE OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...EVEN A FEW LOWER 90S REPORTED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUND THE APEX IN SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. THE FIRST ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SPREADING/EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ELEVATED WITH THIS
WAVE OF IMPULSES...CAPE IS WEAK.

TUESDAY MORNING...THE LARGE AREA ENCOMPASSED BY THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BULK SHEAR STILL ELEVATED BUT CAPE VALUES NOT
OF A CONCERN FOR ANY KIND OF SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE BACK EDGE OF THE FIRST ROUND OF
IMPULSES/SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WITH
A BIT OF CLEARING IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CAPE
VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE BULK
SHEAR STILL ELEVATED AT 35-50 KNOTS. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH
DAKOTA...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE.
WILL NOT YET MENTION SEVERE WORDING...AS STORM PREDICTION CENTER
KEEPS A MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFTERNOON.

COOLER TUESDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 70S CENTRAL TO 80S WEST WITH THE
TEMPORARY AFTERNOON CLEARING BEFORE THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BEGIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM COULD START OUT RATHER STORMY. A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING AND WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND VERY STRONG SHEAR (50-60 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR) COULD
SPARK SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES OVERNIGHT A TRANSITION TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS
DISSIPATE AND ALLOW AFTERNOON HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEARBY THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

AT THIS TIME...INDEPENDENCE DAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...HOWEVER THE
LONG TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY EVENING. A MINOR CHANGE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON 4TH OF JULY PLANS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE REDUCING VSBYS TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KISN THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. HAZE A CONCERN AT KBIS WHERE MVFR VSBYS HAVE
DEVELOPED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN KISN AND KBIS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP VSBYS
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
DOMINATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WHERE CONFIDENCE
WAS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO PRECIPIATION...WENT WITH A PREDOMINATE
PRECIPITATION TIMEFRAME AS OPPOSED TO A VCSH/VCTS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 300644
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
144 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
MORTON/GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. MAY SEE
ACTIVITY EXPAND NORTH AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS IN THIS DIRECTION
ALONG WITH THUNDER MENTION BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. UPDATES
FORTHCOMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ALIGNED FROM NEAR
SHERWOOD TO GARRISON...AND SOUTH TO MANDAN AND LINTON. SOME CONVECTION
WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN FAR SOUTHERN EMMONS COUNTY
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BORDER. WATER VAPOR DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE
WORKING THROUGH SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WHICH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. CURRENT RADAR REFLECTIVITYS ARE WEAK ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST WITH THIS WAVE BUT WERE EXPANDING. THE HRRR/NAM12/GFS
PRODUCE A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH
12Z AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON THIS. CAPE IS SCARCE SO THINKING
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AT BEST...AND HAVE REDUCED
THUNDER MENTION TO THE FAR SOUTH. SMOKE STILL A PROBLEM IN THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP THAT GOING INTO THE MORNING THEN
RE-EVALUATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN UPDATE ISSUES WERE TO ADDRESS THE INCREASED SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN FIRES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK ON
TRACK FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT UNTIL THEN EXPECT
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A MILE OR TWO ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY TONIGHT SO WE ARE
UNSURE OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE SMOKE WILL TRAVEL. DID ADD SOME HAZE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SMOKE AND DID ISSUE AN SPS TO HEIGHTEN
AWARENESS OF THE SMOKE. REPORTS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA AND GLASGOW
SAID THAT YOU COULD SMELL THE SMOKE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHERN DUNN AND EASTERN STARK
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST. STILL VERY UNSTABLE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WITH 2-3 THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE...BUT NOTHING GET
THINGS STARTED. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWEST...AND INTO GRANT COUNTY THROUGH 9 PM. ALSO KEPT HAZE IN
THE EAST THROUGH SUNSET. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN BOWMAN AND HETTINGER. SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO GET GOING
HERE BUT HAVING A HARD TIME. DID SEE ONE CELL PRODUCE A LITTLE
LIGHTNING...AND ANOTHER MAY YET FORM. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH THROUGH DICKINSON AND DUNN COUNTY WHERE CU IS
A LITTLE MORE CONGESTED. ADDED SOME HAZE IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH OVER
HUDSON BAY WAS PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WAS EVIDENT ON SAT PICS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL SMOKE APPEARED
TO BE OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...EVEN A FEW LOWER 90S REPORTED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUND THE APEX IN SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. THE FIRST ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SPREADING/EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ELEVATED WITH THIS
WAVE OF IMPULSES...CAPE IS WEAK.

TUESDAY MORNING...THE LARGE AREA ENCOMPASSED BY THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BULK SHEAR STILL ELEVATED BUT CAPE VALUES NOT
OF A CONCERN FOR ANY KIND OF SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE BACK EDGE OF THE FIRST ROUND OF
IMPULSES/SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WITH
A BIT OF CLEARING IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CAPE
VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE BULK
SHEAR STILL ELEVATED AT 35-50 KNOTS. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH
DAKOTA...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE.
WILL NOT YET MENTION SEVERE WORDING...AS STORM PREDICTION CENTER
KEEPS A MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFTERNOON.

COOLER TUESDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 70S CENTRAL TO 80S WEST WITH THE
TEMPORARY AFTERNOON CLEARING BEFORE THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BEGIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM COULD START OUT RATHER STORMY. A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING AND WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND VERY STRONG SHEAR (50-60 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR) COULD
SPARK SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES OVERNIGHT A TRANSITION TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS
DISSIPATE AND ALLOW AFTERNOON HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEARBY THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

AT THIS TIME...INDEPENDENCE DAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...HOWEVER THE
LONG TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY EVENING. A MINOR CHANGE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON 4TH OF JULY PLANS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE REDUCING VSBYS TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KISN THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. HAZE A CONCERN AT KBIS WHERE MVFR VSBYS HAVE
DEVELOPED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN KISN AND KBIS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP VSBYS
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
DOMINATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WHERE CONFIDENCE
WAS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO PRECIPIATION...WENT WITH A PREDOMINATE
PRECIPITATION TIMEFRAME AS OPPOSED TO A VCSH/VCTS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 300644
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
144 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
MORTON/GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. MAY SEE
ACTIVITY EXPAND NORTH AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS IN THIS DIRECTION
ALONG WITH THUNDER MENTION BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. UPDATES
FORTHCOMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ALIGNED FROM NEAR
SHERWOOD TO GARRISON...AND SOUTH TO MANDAN AND LINTON. SOME CONVECTION
WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN FAR SOUTHERN EMMONS COUNTY
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BORDER. WATER VAPOR DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE
WORKING THROUGH SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WHICH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. CURRENT RADAR REFLECTIVITYS ARE WEAK ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST WITH THIS WAVE BUT WERE EXPANDING. THE HRRR/NAM12/GFS
PRODUCE A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH
12Z AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON THIS. CAPE IS SCARCE SO THINKING
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AT BEST...AND HAVE REDUCED
THUNDER MENTION TO THE FAR SOUTH. SMOKE STILL A PROBLEM IN THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP THAT GOING INTO THE MORNING THEN
RE-EVALUATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN UPDATE ISSUES WERE TO ADDRESS THE INCREASED SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN FIRES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK ON
TRACK FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT UNTIL THEN EXPECT
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A MILE OR TWO ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY TONIGHT SO WE ARE
UNSURE OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE SMOKE WILL TRAVEL. DID ADD SOME HAZE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SMOKE AND DID ISSUE AN SPS TO HEIGHTEN
AWARENESS OF THE SMOKE. REPORTS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA AND GLASGOW
SAID THAT YOU COULD SMELL THE SMOKE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHERN DUNN AND EASTERN STARK
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST. STILL VERY UNSTABLE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WITH 2-3 THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE...BUT NOTHING GET
THINGS STARTED. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWEST...AND INTO GRANT COUNTY THROUGH 9 PM. ALSO KEPT HAZE IN
THE EAST THROUGH SUNSET. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN BOWMAN AND HETTINGER. SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO GET GOING
HERE BUT HAVING A HARD TIME. DID SEE ONE CELL PRODUCE A LITTLE
LIGHTNING...AND ANOTHER MAY YET FORM. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH THROUGH DICKINSON AND DUNN COUNTY WHERE CU IS
A LITTLE MORE CONGESTED. ADDED SOME HAZE IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH OVER
HUDSON BAY WAS PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WAS EVIDENT ON SAT PICS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL SMOKE APPEARED
TO BE OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...EVEN A FEW LOWER 90S REPORTED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUND THE APEX IN SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. THE FIRST ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SPREADING/EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ELEVATED WITH THIS
WAVE OF IMPULSES...CAPE IS WEAK.

TUESDAY MORNING...THE LARGE AREA ENCOMPASSED BY THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BULK SHEAR STILL ELEVATED BUT CAPE VALUES NOT
OF A CONCERN FOR ANY KIND OF SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE BACK EDGE OF THE FIRST ROUND OF
IMPULSES/SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WITH
A BIT OF CLEARING IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CAPE
VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE BULK
SHEAR STILL ELEVATED AT 35-50 KNOTS. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH
DAKOTA...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE.
WILL NOT YET MENTION SEVERE WORDING...AS STORM PREDICTION CENTER
KEEPS A MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFTERNOON.

COOLER TUESDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 70S CENTRAL TO 80S WEST WITH THE
TEMPORARY AFTERNOON CLEARING BEFORE THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BEGIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM COULD START OUT RATHER STORMY. A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING AND WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND VERY STRONG SHEAR (50-60 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR) COULD
SPARK SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES OVERNIGHT A TRANSITION TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS
DISSIPATE AND ALLOW AFTERNOON HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEARBY THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

AT THIS TIME...INDEPENDENCE DAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...HOWEVER THE
LONG TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY EVENING. A MINOR CHANGE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON 4TH OF JULY PLANS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE REDUCING VSBYS TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KISN THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. HAZE A CONCERN AT KBIS WHERE MVFR VSBYS HAVE
DEVELOPED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN KISN AND KBIS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP VSBYS
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
DOMINATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WHERE CONFIDENCE
WAS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO PRECIPIATION...WENT WITH A PREDOMINATE
PRECIPITATION TIMEFRAME AS OPPOSED TO A VCSH/VCTS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 300524
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1224 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ALIGNED FROM NEAR
SHERWOOD TO GARRISON...AND SOUTH TO MANDAN AND LINTON. SOME CONVECTION
WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN FAR SOUTHERN EMMONS COUNTY
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BORDER. WATER VAPOR DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE
WORKING THROUGH SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WHICH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. CURRENT RADAR REFLECTIVITYS ARE WEAK ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST WITH THIS WAVE BUT WERE EXPANDING. THE HRRR/NAM12/GFS
PRODUCE A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH
12Z AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON THIS. CAPE IS SCARCE SO THINKING
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AT BEST...AND HAVE REDUCED
THUNDER MENTION TO THE FAR SOUTH. SMOKE STILL A PROBLEM IN THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP THAT GOING INTO THE MORNING THEN
RE-EVALUATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN UPDATE ISSUES WERE TO ADDRESS THE INCREASED SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN FIRES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK ON
TRACK FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT UNTIL THEN EXPECT
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A MILE OR TWO ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY TONIGHT SO WE ARE
UNSURE OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE SMOKE WILL TRAVEL. DID ADD SOME HAZE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SMOKE AND DID ISSUE AN SPS TO HEIGHTEN
AWARENESS OF THE SMOKE. REPORTS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA AND GLASGOW
SAID THAT YOU COULD SMELL THE SMOKE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHERN DUNN AND EASTERN STARK
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST. STILL VERY UNSTABLE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WITH 2-3 THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE...BUT NOTHING GET
THINGS STARTED. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWEST...AND INTO GRANT COUNTY THROUGH 9 PM. ALSO KEPT HAZE IN
THE EAST THROUGH SUNSET. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN BOWMAN AND HETTINGER. SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO GET GOING
HERE BUT HAVING A HARD TIME. DID SEE ONE CELL PRODUCE A LITTLE
LIGHTNING...AND ANOTHER MAY YET FORM. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH THROUGH DICKINSON AND DUNN COUNTY WHERE CU IS
A LITTLE MORE CONGESTED. ADDED SOME HAZE IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH OVER
HUDSON BAY WAS PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WAS EVIDENT ON SAT PICS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL SMOKE APPEARED
TO BE OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...EVEN A FEW LOWER 90S REPORTED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUND THE APEX IN SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. THE FIRST ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SPREADING/EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ELEVATED WITH THIS
WAVE OF IMPULSES...CAPE IS WEAK.

TUESDAY MORNING...THE LARGE AREA ENCOMPASSED BY THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BULK SHEAR STILL ELEVATED BUT CAPE VALUES NOT
OF A CONCERN FOR ANY KIND OF SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE BACK EDGE OF THE FIRST ROUND OF
IMPULSES/SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WITH
A BIT OF CLEARING IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CAPE
VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE BULK
SHEAR STILL ELEVATED AT 35-50 KNOTS. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH
DAKOTA...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE.
WILL NOT YET MENTION SEVERE WORDING...AS STORM PREDICTION CENTER
KEEPS A MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFTERNOON.

COOLER TUESDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 70S CENTRAL TO 80S WEST WITH THE
TEMPORARY AFTERNOON CLEARING BEFORE THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BEGIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM COULD START OUT RATHER STORMY. A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING AND WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND VERY STRONG SHEAR (50-60 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR) COULD
SPARK SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES OVERNIGHT A TRANSITION TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS
DISSIPATE AND ALLOW AFTERNOON HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEARBY THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

AT THIS TIME...INDEPENDENCE DAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...HOWEVER THE
LONG TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY EVENING. A MINOR CHANGE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON 4TH OF JULY PLANS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE REDUCING VSBYS TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KISN THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. HAZE A CONCERN AT KBIS WHERE MVFR VSBYS HAVE
DEVELOPED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN KISN AND KBIS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP VSBYS
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
DOMINATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WHERE CONFIDENCE
WAS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO PRECIPIATION...WENT WITH A PREDOMINATE
PRECIPITATION TIMEFRAME AS OPPOSED TO A VCSH/VCTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 300524
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1224 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ALIGNED FROM NEAR
SHERWOOD TO GARRISON...AND SOUTH TO MANDAN AND LINTON. SOME CONVECTION
WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN FAR SOUTHERN EMMONS COUNTY
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BORDER. WATER VAPOR DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE
WORKING THROUGH SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WHICH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. CURRENT RADAR REFLECTIVITYS ARE WEAK ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST WITH THIS WAVE BUT WERE EXPANDING. THE HRRR/NAM12/GFS
PRODUCE A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH
12Z AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON THIS. CAPE IS SCARCE SO THINKING
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AT BEST...AND HAVE REDUCED
THUNDER MENTION TO THE FAR SOUTH. SMOKE STILL A PROBLEM IN THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP THAT GOING INTO THE MORNING THEN
RE-EVALUATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN UPDATE ISSUES WERE TO ADDRESS THE INCREASED SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN FIRES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK ON
TRACK FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT UNTIL THEN EXPECT
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A MILE OR TWO ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY TONIGHT SO WE ARE
UNSURE OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE SMOKE WILL TRAVEL. DID ADD SOME HAZE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SMOKE AND DID ISSUE AN SPS TO HEIGHTEN
AWARENESS OF THE SMOKE. REPORTS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA AND GLASGOW
SAID THAT YOU COULD SMELL THE SMOKE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHERN DUNN AND EASTERN STARK
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST. STILL VERY UNSTABLE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WITH 2-3 THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE...BUT NOTHING GET
THINGS STARTED. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWEST...AND INTO GRANT COUNTY THROUGH 9 PM. ALSO KEPT HAZE IN
THE EAST THROUGH SUNSET. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN BOWMAN AND HETTINGER. SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO GET GOING
HERE BUT HAVING A HARD TIME. DID SEE ONE CELL PRODUCE A LITTLE
LIGHTNING...AND ANOTHER MAY YET FORM. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH THROUGH DICKINSON AND DUNN COUNTY WHERE CU IS
A LITTLE MORE CONGESTED. ADDED SOME HAZE IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH OVER
HUDSON BAY WAS PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WAS EVIDENT ON SAT PICS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL SMOKE APPEARED
TO BE OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...EVEN A FEW LOWER 90S REPORTED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUND THE APEX IN SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. THE FIRST ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SPREADING/EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ELEVATED WITH THIS
WAVE OF IMPULSES...CAPE IS WEAK.

TUESDAY MORNING...THE LARGE AREA ENCOMPASSED BY THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BULK SHEAR STILL ELEVATED BUT CAPE VALUES NOT
OF A CONCERN FOR ANY KIND OF SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE BACK EDGE OF THE FIRST ROUND OF
IMPULSES/SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WITH
A BIT OF CLEARING IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CAPE
VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE BULK
SHEAR STILL ELEVATED AT 35-50 KNOTS. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH
DAKOTA...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE.
WILL NOT YET MENTION SEVERE WORDING...AS STORM PREDICTION CENTER
KEEPS A MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFTERNOON.

COOLER TUESDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 70S CENTRAL TO 80S WEST WITH THE
TEMPORARY AFTERNOON CLEARING BEFORE THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BEGIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM COULD START OUT RATHER STORMY. A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING AND WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND VERY STRONG SHEAR (50-60 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR) COULD
SPARK SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES OVERNIGHT A TRANSITION TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS
DISSIPATE AND ALLOW AFTERNOON HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEARBY THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

AT THIS TIME...INDEPENDENCE DAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...HOWEVER THE
LONG TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY EVENING. A MINOR CHANGE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON 4TH OF JULY PLANS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE REDUCING VSBYS TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KISN THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. HAZE A CONCERN AT KBIS WHERE MVFR VSBYS HAVE
DEVELOPED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN KISN AND KBIS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP VSBYS
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
DOMINATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WHERE CONFIDENCE
WAS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO PRECIPIATION...WENT WITH A PREDOMINATE
PRECIPITATION TIMEFRAME AS OPPOSED TO A VCSH/VCTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KFGF 300432
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1132 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

NO CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FAIRLY HIGH CLOUD GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS WE ARE STILL GETTING THE HIGH LEVEL SMOKE TRANSPORTED
DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN FIRES. THE LOWERED VIS WITH LOWER LEVEL
SMOKE WILL STAY TO OUR WEST SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE
GRIDS FOR NOW. OTHER THAN THE SMOKE IT SHOULD BE VERY QUIET NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

KEPT A BIT OF LOW POPS IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN CASE A STRAY
SHOWER DEVELOPS...BUT NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH AS THE MAIN PRECIP
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN WELL TO OUR EAST. SMOKE CONTINUES TO
BE AN ISSUE...WITH TEMPS KEPT IN THE 70S TODAY BY THE THICK LAYER
OVERHEAD. GIVEN ITS POSITION HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE DID NOT
INCLUDE SMOKE MENTION IN THE GRIDS BUT BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A
BIT THIS EVENING. THINK THAT SMOKE SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE LATER
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SMOKE
INFLUENCING TEMPS. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH ANY PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THU...WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...THE THICK SMOKE PLUME OVER THE AREA SHOULD DISPERSE
SOME BUT MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT WHERE IT PERSISTS.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR A STORM IN THE FAR WEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FOR WED/THU...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR A STORM
MAINLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM CLOUD AND IF
THERE IS ANY SMOKE STILL AROUND...WHICH IS POSSIBLE WITH
PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN QPF AREA SHOULD BE ALONG OR
JUST WEST OF THE FA...WITH DEEPER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE ALSO TO OUR
WEST.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ONE SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
EAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PCPN CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MILDEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE FA BY 12Z SUNDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT BRINGING DOWN COOLER TEMPS THEREAFTER. MORE MODEL
DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY FOR MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING SOME
SLIGHT PCPN CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST AND THE GFS SHOWING THEM ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VIS HAVE STAYED IN THE 7-10SM RANGE SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL GET
MUCH HAZE FORMING FROM THE SMOKE...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO BRING 20000 FT CIGS. SOME MORE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY STEADY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BUT STAY BELOW
12 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 300432
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1132 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

NO CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FAIRLY HIGH CLOUD GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS WE ARE STILL GETTING THE HIGH LEVEL SMOKE TRANSPORTED
DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN FIRES. THE LOWERED VIS WITH LOWER LEVEL
SMOKE WILL STAY TO OUR WEST SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE
GRIDS FOR NOW. OTHER THAN THE SMOKE IT SHOULD BE VERY QUIET NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

KEPT A BIT OF LOW POPS IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN CASE A STRAY
SHOWER DEVELOPS...BUT NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH AS THE MAIN PRECIP
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN WELL TO OUR EAST. SMOKE CONTINUES TO
BE AN ISSUE...WITH TEMPS KEPT IN THE 70S TODAY BY THE THICK LAYER
OVERHEAD. GIVEN ITS POSITION HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE DID NOT
INCLUDE SMOKE MENTION IN THE GRIDS BUT BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A
BIT THIS EVENING. THINK THAT SMOKE SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE LATER
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SMOKE
INFLUENCING TEMPS. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH ANY PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THU...WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...THE THICK SMOKE PLUME OVER THE AREA SHOULD DISPERSE
SOME BUT MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT WHERE IT PERSISTS.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR A STORM IN THE FAR WEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FOR WED/THU...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR A STORM
MAINLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM CLOUD AND IF
THERE IS ANY SMOKE STILL AROUND...WHICH IS POSSIBLE WITH
PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN QPF AREA SHOULD BE ALONG OR
JUST WEST OF THE FA...WITH DEEPER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE ALSO TO OUR
WEST.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ONE SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
EAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PCPN CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MILDEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE FA BY 12Z SUNDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT BRINGING DOWN COOLER TEMPS THEREAFTER. MORE MODEL
DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY FOR MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING SOME
SLIGHT PCPN CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST AND THE GFS SHOWING THEM ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VIS HAVE STAYED IN THE 7-10SM RANGE SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL GET
MUCH HAZE FORMING FROM THE SMOKE...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO BRING 20000 FT CIGS. SOME MORE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY STEADY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BUT STAY BELOW
12 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...JR



000
FXUS63 KBIS 300303
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1003 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN UPDATE ISSUES WERE TO ADDRESS THE INCREASED SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN FIRES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK ON
TRACK FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT UNTIL THEN EXPECT
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A MILE OR TWO ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY TONIGHT SO WE ARE
UNSURE OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE SMOKE WILL TRAVEL. DID ADD SOME HAZE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SMOKE AND DID ISSUE AN SPS TO HEIGHTEN
AWARENESS OF THE SMOKE. REPORTS FROM SOUTHERN CANANDA AND GLASGOW
SAID THAT YOU COULD SMELL THE SMOKE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHERN DUNN AND EASTERN STARK
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST. STILL VERY UNSTABLE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WITH 2-3 THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE...BUT NOTHING GET
THINGS STARTED. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWEST...AND INTO GRANT COUNTY THROUGH 9 PM. ALSO KEPT HAZE IN
THE EAST THROUGH SUNSET. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN BOWMAN AND HETTINGER. SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO GET GOING
HERE BUT HAVING A HARD TIME. DID SEE ONE CELL PRODUCE A LITTLE
LIGHTNING...AND ANOTHER MAY YET FORM. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH THROUGH DICKINSON AND DUNN COUNTY WHERE CU IS
A LITTLE MORE CONGESTED. ADDED SOME HAZE IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH OVER
HUDSON BAY WAS PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WAS EVIDENT ON SAT PICS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL SMOKE APPEARED
TO BE OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...EVEN A FEW LOWER 90S REPORTED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUND THE APEX IN SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. THE FIRST ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SPREADING/EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ELEVATED WITH THIS
WAVE OF IMPULSES...CAPE IS WEAK.

TUESDAY MORNING...THE LARGE AREA ENCOMPASSED BY THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BULK SHEAR STILL ELEVATED BUT CAPE VALUES NOT
OF A CONCERN FOR ANY KIND OF SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE BACK EDGE OF THE FIRST ROUND OF
IMPULSES/SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WITH
A BIT OF CLEARING IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CAPE
VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE BULK
SHEAR STILL ELEVATED AT 35-50 KNOTS. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH
DAKOTA...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE.
WILL NOT YET MENTION SEVERE WORDING...AS STORM PREDICTION CENTER
KEEPS A MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFTERNOON.

COOLER TUESDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 70S CENTRAL TO 80S WEST WITH THE
TEMPORARY AFTERNOON CLEARING BEFORE THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BEGIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM COULD START OUT RATHER STORMY. A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING AND WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND VERY STRONG SHEAR (50-60 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR) COULD
SPARK SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES OVERNIGHT A TRANSITION TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS
DISSIPATE AND ALLOW AFTERNOON HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEARBY THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

AT THIS TIME...INDEPENDENCE DAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...HOWEVER THE
LONG TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY EVENING. A MINOR CHANGE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON 4TH OF JULY PLANS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SMOKE FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. VSBYS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 6SM FOR
ALL TAF SITES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF ADDITIONAL SMOKE OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THAT WILL DROP INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ALSO A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
SO HARD TO TELL HOW EXTENSIVE THE SMOKE WILL BE. THERE ARE SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY OVER SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR...

UPDATE...SMOKE HAS MADE IT INTO WILLISTON...DOWN TO 2 MILES. HAVE
AMMENDED AND WILL NEED TO VISIT OTHER TAFS.

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. COVERED THIS WITH MAINLY VCSH THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING...THEN -SHRA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS
LIMITED SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. THE EXCEPTION BEING
KISN WHICH MIGHT MISS OUT ON THE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS DURING THE
DAY...THUS ALLOWING MORE HEATING AND A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDED A VCTS FOR KDIK 21-24 UTC
TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 300303
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1003 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN UPDATE ISSUES WERE TO ADDRESS THE INCREASED SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN FIRES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK ON
TRACK FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT UNTIL THEN EXPECT
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A MILE OR TWO ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY TONIGHT SO WE ARE
UNSURE OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE SMOKE WILL TRAVEL. DID ADD SOME HAZE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SMOKE AND DID ISSUE AN SPS TO HEIGHTEN
AWARENESS OF THE SMOKE. REPORTS FROM SOUTHERN CANANDA AND GLASGOW
SAID THAT YOU COULD SMELL THE SMOKE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHERN DUNN AND EASTERN STARK
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST. STILL VERY UNSTABLE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WITH 2-3 THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE...BUT NOTHING GET
THINGS STARTED. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWEST...AND INTO GRANT COUNTY THROUGH 9 PM. ALSO KEPT HAZE IN
THE EAST THROUGH SUNSET. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN BOWMAN AND HETTINGER. SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO GET GOING
HERE BUT HAVING A HARD TIME. DID SEE ONE CELL PRODUCE A LITTLE
LIGHTNING...AND ANOTHER MAY YET FORM. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH THROUGH DICKINSON AND DUNN COUNTY WHERE CU IS
A LITTLE MORE CONGESTED. ADDED SOME HAZE IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH OVER
HUDSON BAY WAS PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WAS EVIDENT ON SAT PICS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL SMOKE APPEARED
TO BE OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...EVEN A FEW LOWER 90S REPORTED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUND THE APEX IN SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. THE FIRST ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SPREADING/EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ELEVATED WITH THIS
WAVE OF IMPULSES...CAPE IS WEAK.

TUESDAY MORNING...THE LARGE AREA ENCOMPASSED BY THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BULK SHEAR STILL ELEVATED BUT CAPE VALUES NOT
OF A CONCERN FOR ANY KIND OF SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE BACK EDGE OF THE FIRST ROUND OF
IMPULSES/SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WITH
A BIT OF CLEARING IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CAPE
VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE BULK
SHEAR STILL ELEVATED AT 35-50 KNOTS. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH
DAKOTA...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE.
WILL NOT YET MENTION SEVERE WORDING...AS STORM PREDICTION CENTER
KEEPS A MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFTERNOON.

COOLER TUESDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 70S CENTRAL TO 80S WEST WITH THE
TEMPORARY AFTERNOON CLEARING BEFORE THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BEGIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM COULD START OUT RATHER STORMY. A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING AND WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND VERY STRONG SHEAR (50-60 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR) COULD
SPARK SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES OVERNIGHT A TRANSITION TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS
DISSIPATE AND ALLOW AFTERNOON HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEARBY THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

AT THIS TIME...INDEPENDENCE DAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...HOWEVER THE
LONG TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY EVENING. A MINOR CHANGE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON 4TH OF JULY PLANS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SMOKE FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. VSBYS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 6SM FOR
ALL TAF SITES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF ADDITIONAL SMOKE OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THAT WILL DROP INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ALSO A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
SO HARD TO TELL HOW EXTENSIVE THE SMOKE WILL BE. THERE ARE SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY OVER SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR...

UPDATE...SMOKE HAS MADE IT INTO WILLISTON...DOWN TO 2 MILES. HAVE
AMMENDED AND WILL NEED TO VISIT OTHER TAFS.

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. COVERED THIS WITH MAINLY VCSH THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING...THEN -SHRA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS
LIMITED SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. THE EXCEPTION BEING
KISN WHICH MIGHT MISS OUT ON THE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS DURING THE
DAY...THUS ALLOWING MORE HEATING AND A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDED A VCTS FOR KDIK 21-24 UTC
TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 300303
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1003 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN UPDATE ISSUES WERE TO ADDRESS THE INCREASED SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN FIRES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK ON
TRACK FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT UNTIL THEN EXPECT
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A MILE OR TWO ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY TONIGHT SO WE ARE
UNSURE OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE SMOKE WILL TRAVEL. DID ADD SOME HAZE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SMOKE AND DID ISSUE AN SPS TO HEIGHTEN
AWARENESS OF THE SMOKE. REPORTS FROM SOUTHERN CANANDA AND GLASGOW
SAID THAT YOU COULD SMELL THE SMOKE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHERN DUNN AND EASTERN STARK
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST. STILL VERY UNSTABLE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WITH 2-3 THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE...BUT NOTHING GET
THINGS STARTED. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWEST...AND INTO GRANT COUNTY THROUGH 9 PM. ALSO KEPT HAZE IN
THE EAST THROUGH SUNSET. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN BOWMAN AND HETTINGER. SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO GET GOING
HERE BUT HAVING A HARD TIME. DID SEE ONE CELL PRODUCE A LITTLE
LIGHTNING...AND ANOTHER MAY YET FORM. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH THROUGH DICKINSON AND DUNN COUNTY WHERE CU IS
A LITTLE MORE CONGESTED. ADDED SOME HAZE IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH OVER
HUDSON BAY WAS PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WAS EVIDENT ON SAT PICS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL SMOKE APPEARED
TO BE OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...EVEN A FEW LOWER 90S REPORTED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUND THE APEX IN SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. THE FIRST ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SPREADING/EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ELEVATED WITH THIS
WAVE OF IMPULSES...CAPE IS WEAK.

TUESDAY MORNING...THE LARGE AREA ENCOMPASSED BY THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BULK SHEAR STILL ELEVATED BUT CAPE VALUES NOT
OF A CONCERN FOR ANY KIND OF SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE BACK EDGE OF THE FIRST ROUND OF
IMPULSES/SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WITH
A BIT OF CLEARING IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CAPE
VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE BULK
SHEAR STILL ELEVATED AT 35-50 KNOTS. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH
DAKOTA...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE.
WILL NOT YET MENTION SEVERE WORDING...AS STORM PREDICTION CENTER
KEEPS A MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFTERNOON.

COOLER TUESDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 70S CENTRAL TO 80S WEST WITH THE
TEMPORARY AFTERNOON CLEARING BEFORE THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BEGIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM COULD START OUT RATHER STORMY. A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING AND WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND VERY STRONG SHEAR (50-60 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR) COULD
SPARK SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES OVERNIGHT A TRANSITION TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS
DISSIPATE AND ALLOW AFTERNOON HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEARBY THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

AT THIS TIME...INDEPENDENCE DAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...HOWEVER THE
LONG TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY EVENING. A MINOR CHANGE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON 4TH OF JULY PLANS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SMOKE FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. VSBYS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 6SM FOR
ALL TAF SITES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF ADDITIONAL SMOKE OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THAT WILL DROP INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ALSO A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
SO HARD TO TELL HOW EXTENSIVE THE SMOKE WILL BE. THERE ARE SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY OVER SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR...

UPDATE...SMOKE HAS MADE IT INTO WILLISTON...DOWN TO 2 MILES. HAVE
AMMENDED AND WILL NEED TO VISIT OTHER TAFS.

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. COVERED THIS WITH MAINLY VCSH THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING...THEN -SHRA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS
LIMITED SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. THE EXCEPTION BEING
KISN WHICH MIGHT MISS OUT ON THE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS DURING THE
DAY...THUS ALLOWING MORE HEATING AND A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDED A VCTS FOR KDIK 21-24 UTC
TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 300303
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1003 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN UPDATE ISSUES WERE TO ADDRESS THE INCREASED SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN FIRES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK ON
TRACK FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT UNTIL THEN EXPECT
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A MILE OR TWO ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY TONIGHT SO WE ARE
UNSURE OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE SMOKE WILL TRAVEL. DID ADD SOME HAZE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SMOKE AND DID ISSUE AN SPS TO HEIGHTEN
AWARENESS OF THE SMOKE. REPORTS FROM SOUTHERN CANANDA AND GLASGOW
SAID THAT YOU COULD SMELL THE SMOKE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHERN DUNN AND EASTERN STARK
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST. STILL VERY UNSTABLE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WITH 2-3 THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE...BUT NOTHING GET
THINGS STARTED. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWEST...AND INTO GRANT COUNTY THROUGH 9 PM. ALSO KEPT HAZE IN
THE EAST THROUGH SUNSET. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN BOWMAN AND HETTINGER. SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO GET GOING
HERE BUT HAVING A HARD TIME. DID SEE ONE CELL PRODUCE A LITTLE
LIGHTNING...AND ANOTHER MAY YET FORM. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH THROUGH DICKINSON AND DUNN COUNTY WHERE CU IS
A LITTLE MORE CONGESTED. ADDED SOME HAZE IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH OVER
HUDSON BAY WAS PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WAS EVIDENT ON SAT PICS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL SMOKE APPEARED
TO BE OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...EVEN A FEW LOWER 90S REPORTED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUND THE APEX IN SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. THE FIRST ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SPREADING/EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ELEVATED WITH THIS
WAVE OF IMPULSES...CAPE IS WEAK.

TUESDAY MORNING...THE LARGE AREA ENCOMPASSED BY THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BULK SHEAR STILL ELEVATED BUT CAPE VALUES NOT
OF A CONCERN FOR ANY KIND OF SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE BACK EDGE OF THE FIRST ROUND OF
IMPULSES/SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WITH
A BIT OF CLEARING IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CAPE
VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE BULK
SHEAR STILL ELEVATED AT 35-50 KNOTS. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH
DAKOTA...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE.
WILL NOT YET MENTION SEVERE WORDING...AS STORM PREDICTION CENTER
KEEPS A MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFTERNOON.

COOLER TUESDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 70S CENTRAL TO 80S WEST WITH THE
TEMPORARY AFTERNOON CLEARING BEFORE THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BEGIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM COULD START OUT RATHER STORMY. A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING AND WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND VERY STRONG SHEAR (50-60 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR) COULD
SPARK SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES OVERNIGHT A TRANSITION TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS
DISSIPATE AND ALLOW AFTERNOON HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEARBY THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

AT THIS TIME...INDEPENDENCE DAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...HOWEVER THE
LONG TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY EVENING. A MINOR CHANGE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON 4TH OF JULY PLANS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SMOKE FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. VSBYS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 6SM FOR
ALL TAF SITES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF ADDITIONAL SMOKE OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THAT WILL DROP INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ALSO A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
SO HARD TO TELL HOW EXTENSIVE THE SMOKE WILL BE. THERE ARE SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY OVER SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR...

UPDATE...SMOKE HAS MADE IT INTO WILLISTON...DOWN TO 2 MILES. HAVE
AMMENDED AND WILL NEED TO VISIT OTHER TAFS.

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. COVERED THIS WITH MAINLY VCSH THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING...THEN -SHRA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS
LIMITED SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. THE EXCEPTION BEING
KISN WHICH MIGHT MISS OUT ON THE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS DURING THE
DAY...THUS ALLOWING MORE HEATING AND A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDED A VCTS FOR KDIK 21-24 UTC
TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KFGF 300241
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
941 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FAIRLY HIGH CLOUD GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS WE ARE STILL GETTING THE HIGH LEVEL SMOKE TRANSPORTED
DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN FIRES. THE LOWERED VIS WITH LOWER LEVEL
SMOKE WILL STAY TO OUR WEST SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE
GRIDS FOR NOW. OTHER THAN THE SMOKE IT SHOULD BE VERY QUIET NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

KEPT A BIT OF LOW POPS IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN CASE A STRAY
SHOWER DEVELOPS...BUT NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH AS THE MAIN PRECIP
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN WELL TO OUR EAST. SMOKE CONTINUES TO
BE AN ISSUE...WITH TEMPS KEPT IN THE 70S TODAY BY THE THICK LAYER
OVERHEAD. GIVEN ITS POSITION HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE DID NOT
INCLUDE SMOKE MENTION IN THE GRIDS BUT BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A
BIT THIS EVENING. THINK THAT SMOKE SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE LATER
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SMOKE
INFLUENCING TEMPS. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH ANY PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THU...WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...THE THICK SMOKE PLUME OVER THE AREA SHOULD DISPERSE
SOME BUT MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT WHERE IT PERSISTS.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR A STORM IN THE FAR WEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FOR WED/THU...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR A STORM
MAINLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM CLOUD AND IF
THERE IS ANY SMOKE STILL AROUND...WHICH IS POSSIBLE WITH
PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN QPF AREA SHOULD BE ALONG OR
JUST WEST OF THE FA...WITH DEEPER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE ALSO TO OUR
WEST.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ONE SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
EAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PCPN CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MILDEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE FA BY 12Z SUNDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT BRINGING DOWN COOLER TEMPS THEREAFTER. MORE MODEL
DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY FOR MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING SOME
SLIGHT PCPN CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST AND THE GFS SHOWING THEM ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES CONTINUES TO COME ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN A FAIRLY THICK LAYER. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A MENTION OF A
20000 FT CIG TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SMOKE. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE
SOME HAZE DEVELOPING LATER ON TONIGHT...AND THAT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS WE DECOUPLE. NOT SURE ENOUGH FOR SOME 3-5SM IN HAZE
DEVELOPING TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
AMEND AS NEEDED. NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...JR



000
FXUS63 KFGF 300241
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
941 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FAIRLY HIGH CLOUD GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS WE ARE STILL GETTING THE HIGH LEVEL SMOKE TRANSPORTED
DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN FIRES. THE LOWERED VIS WITH LOWER LEVEL
SMOKE WILL STAY TO OUR WEST SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE
GRIDS FOR NOW. OTHER THAN THE SMOKE IT SHOULD BE VERY QUIET NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

KEPT A BIT OF LOW POPS IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN CASE A STRAY
SHOWER DEVELOPS...BUT NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH AS THE MAIN PRECIP
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN WELL TO OUR EAST. SMOKE CONTINUES TO
BE AN ISSUE...WITH TEMPS KEPT IN THE 70S TODAY BY THE THICK LAYER
OVERHEAD. GIVEN ITS POSITION HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE DID NOT
INCLUDE SMOKE MENTION IN THE GRIDS BUT BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A
BIT THIS EVENING. THINK THAT SMOKE SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE LATER
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SMOKE
INFLUENCING TEMPS. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH ANY PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THU...WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...THE THICK SMOKE PLUME OVER THE AREA SHOULD DISPERSE
SOME BUT MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT WHERE IT PERSISTS.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR A STORM IN THE FAR WEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FOR WED/THU...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR A STORM
MAINLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM CLOUD AND IF
THERE IS ANY SMOKE STILL AROUND...WHICH IS POSSIBLE WITH
PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN QPF AREA SHOULD BE ALONG OR
JUST WEST OF THE FA...WITH DEEPER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE ALSO TO OUR
WEST.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ONE SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
EAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PCPN CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MILDEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE FA BY 12Z SUNDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT BRINGING DOWN COOLER TEMPS THEREAFTER. MORE MODEL
DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY FOR MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING SOME
SLIGHT PCPN CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST AND THE GFS SHOWING THEM ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES CONTINUES TO COME ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN A FAIRLY THICK LAYER. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A MENTION OF A
20000 FT CIG TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SMOKE. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE
SOME HAZE DEVELOPING LATER ON TONIGHT...AND THAT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS WE DECOUPLE. NOT SURE ENOUGH FOR SOME 3-5SM IN HAZE
DEVELOPING TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
AMEND AS NEEDED. NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 300241
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
941 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FAIRLY HIGH CLOUD GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS WE ARE STILL GETTING THE HIGH LEVEL SMOKE TRANSPORTED
DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN FIRES. THE LOWERED VIS WITH LOWER LEVEL
SMOKE WILL STAY TO OUR WEST SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE
GRIDS FOR NOW. OTHER THAN THE SMOKE IT SHOULD BE VERY QUIET NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

KEPT A BIT OF LOW POPS IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN CASE A STRAY
SHOWER DEVELOPS...BUT NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH AS THE MAIN PRECIP
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN WELL TO OUR EAST. SMOKE CONTINUES TO
BE AN ISSUE...WITH TEMPS KEPT IN THE 70S TODAY BY THE THICK LAYER
OVERHEAD. GIVEN ITS POSITION HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE DID NOT
INCLUDE SMOKE MENTION IN THE GRIDS BUT BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A
BIT THIS EVENING. THINK THAT SMOKE SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE LATER
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SMOKE
INFLUENCING TEMPS. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH ANY PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THU...WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...THE THICK SMOKE PLUME OVER THE AREA SHOULD DISPERSE
SOME BUT MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT WHERE IT PERSISTS.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR A STORM IN THE FAR WEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FOR WED/THU...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR A STORM
MAINLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM CLOUD AND IF
THERE IS ANY SMOKE STILL AROUND...WHICH IS POSSIBLE WITH
PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN QPF AREA SHOULD BE ALONG OR
JUST WEST OF THE FA...WITH DEEPER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE ALSO TO OUR
WEST.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ONE SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
EAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PCPN CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MILDEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE FA BY 12Z SUNDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT BRINGING DOWN COOLER TEMPS THEREAFTER. MORE MODEL
DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY FOR MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING SOME
SLIGHT PCPN CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST AND THE GFS SHOWING THEM ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES CONTINUES TO COME ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN A FAIRLY THICK LAYER. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A MENTION OF A
20000 FT CIG TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SMOKE. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE
SOME HAZE DEVELOPING LATER ON TONIGHT...AND THAT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS WE DECOUPLE. NOT SURE ENOUGH FOR SOME 3-5SM IN HAZE
DEVELOPING TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
AMEND AS NEEDED. NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...JR



000
FXUS63 KFGF 300241
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
941 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FAIRLY HIGH CLOUD GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS WE ARE STILL GETTING THE HIGH LEVEL SMOKE TRANSPORTED
DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN FIRES. THE LOWERED VIS WITH LOWER LEVEL
SMOKE WILL STAY TO OUR WEST SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE
GRIDS FOR NOW. OTHER THAN THE SMOKE IT SHOULD BE VERY QUIET NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

KEPT A BIT OF LOW POPS IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN CASE A STRAY
SHOWER DEVELOPS...BUT NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH AS THE MAIN PRECIP
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN WELL TO OUR EAST. SMOKE CONTINUES TO
BE AN ISSUE...WITH TEMPS KEPT IN THE 70S TODAY BY THE THICK LAYER
OVERHEAD. GIVEN ITS POSITION HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE DID NOT
INCLUDE SMOKE MENTION IN THE GRIDS BUT BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A
BIT THIS EVENING. THINK THAT SMOKE SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE LATER
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SMOKE
INFLUENCING TEMPS. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH ANY PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THU...WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...THE THICK SMOKE PLUME OVER THE AREA SHOULD DISPERSE
SOME BUT MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT WHERE IT PERSISTS.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR A STORM IN THE FAR WEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FOR WED/THU...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR A STORM
MAINLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM CLOUD AND IF
THERE IS ANY SMOKE STILL AROUND...WHICH IS POSSIBLE WITH
PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN QPF AREA SHOULD BE ALONG OR
JUST WEST OF THE FA...WITH DEEPER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE ALSO TO OUR
WEST.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ONE SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
EAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PCPN CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MILDEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE FA BY 12Z SUNDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT BRINGING DOWN COOLER TEMPS THEREAFTER. MORE MODEL
DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY FOR MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING SOME
SLIGHT PCPN CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST AND THE GFS SHOWING THEM ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES CONTINUES TO COME ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN A FAIRLY THICK LAYER. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A MENTION OF A
20000 FT CIG TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SMOKE. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE
SOME HAZE DEVELOPING LATER ON TONIGHT...AND THAT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS WE DECOUPLE. NOT SURE ENOUGH FOR SOME 3-5SM IN HAZE
DEVELOPING TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
AMEND AS NEEDED. NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 292358
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
658 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

KEPT A BIT OF LOW POPS IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN CASE A STRAY
SHOWER DEVELOPS...BUT NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH AS THE MAIN PRECIP
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN WELL TO OUR EAST. SMOKE CONTINUES TO
BE AN ISSUE...WITH TEMPS KEPT IN THE 70S TODAY BY THE THICK LAYER
OVERHEAD. GIVEN ITS POSITION HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE DID NOT
INCLUDE SMOKE MENTION IN THE GRIDS BUT BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A
BIT THIS EVENING. THINK THAT SMOKE SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE LATER
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SMOKE
INFLUENCING TEMPS. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH ANY PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THU...WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...THE THICK SMOKE PLUME OVER THE AREA SHOULD DISPERSE
SOME BUT MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT WHERE IT PERSISTS.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR A STORM IN THE FAR WEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FOR WED/THU...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR A STORM
MAINLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM CLOUD AND IF
THERE IS ANY SMOKE STILL AROUND...WHICH IS POSSIBLE WITH
PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN QPF AREA SHOULD BE ALONG OR
JUST WEST OF THE FA...WITH DEEPER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE ALSO TO OUR
WEST.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ONE SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
EAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PCPN CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MILDEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE FA BY 12Z SUNDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT BRINGING DOWN COOLER TEMPS THEREAFTER. MORE MODEL
DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY FOR MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING SOME
SLIGHT PCPN CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST AND THE GFS SHOWING THEM ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES CONTINUES TO COME ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN A FAIRLY THICK LAYER. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A MENTION OF A
20000 FT CIG TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SMOKE. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE
SOME HAZE DEVELOPING LATER ON TONIGHT...AND THAT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS WE DECOUPLE. NOT SURE ENOUGH FOR SOME 3-5SM IN HAZE
DEVELOPING TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
AMEND AS NEEDED. NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...JR



000
FXUS63 KFGF 292358
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
658 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

KEPT A BIT OF LOW POPS IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN CASE A STRAY
SHOWER DEVELOPS...BUT NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH AS THE MAIN PRECIP
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN WELL TO OUR EAST. SMOKE CONTINUES TO
BE AN ISSUE...WITH TEMPS KEPT IN THE 70S TODAY BY THE THICK LAYER
OVERHEAD. GIVEN ITS POSITION HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE DID NOT
INCLUDE SMOKE MENTION IN THE GRIDS BUT BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A
BIT THIS EVENING. THINK THAT SMOKE SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE LATER
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SMOKE
INFLUENCING TEMPS. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH ANY PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THU...WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...THE THICK SMOKE PLUME OVER THE AREA SHOULD DISPERSE
SOME BUT MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT WHERE IT PERSISTS.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR A STORM IN THE FAR WEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FOR WED/THU...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR A STORM
MAINLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM CLOUD AND IF
THERE IS ANY SMOKE STILL AROUND...WHICH IS POSSIBLE WITH
PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN QPF AREA SHOULD BE ALONG OR
JUST WEST OF THE FA...WITH DEEPER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE ALSO TO OUR
WEST.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ONE SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
EAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PCPN CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MILDEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE FA BY 12Z SUNDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT BRINGING DOWN COOLER TEMPS THEREAFTER. MORE MODEL
DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY FOR MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING SOME
SLIGHT PCPN CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST AND THE GFS SHOWING THEM ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES CONTINUES TO COME ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN A FAIRLY THICK LAYER. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A MENTION OF A
20000 FT CIG TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SMOKE. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE
SOME HAZE DEVELOPING LATER ON TONIGHT...AND THAT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS WE DECOUPLE. NOT SURE ENOUGH FOR SOME 3-5SM IN HAZE
DEVELOPING TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
AMEND AS NEEDED. NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...JR



000
FXUS63 KFGF 292358
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
658 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

KEPT A BIT OF LOW POPS IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN CASE A STRAY
SHOWER DEVELOPS...BUT NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH AS THE MAIN PRECIP
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN WELL TO OUR EAST. SMOKE CONTINUES TO
BE AN ISSUE...WITH TEMPS KEPT IN THE 70S TODAY BY THE THICK LAYER
OVERHEAD. GIVEN ITS POSITION HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE DID NOT
INCLUDE SMOKE MENTION IN THE GRIDS BUT BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A
BIT THIS EVENING. THINK THAT SMOKE SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE LATER
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SMOKE
INFLUENCING TEMPS. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH ANY PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THU...WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...THE THICK SMOKE PLUME OVER THE AREA SHOULD DISPERSE
SOME BUT MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT WHERE IT PERSISTS.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR A STORM IN THE FAR WEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FOR WED/THU...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR A STORM
MAINLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM CLOUD AND IF
THERE IS ANY SMOKE STILL AROUND...WHICH IS POSSIBLE WITH
PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN QPF AREA SHOULD BE ALONG OR
JUST WEST OF THE FA...WITH DEEPER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE ALSO TO OUR
WEST.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ONE SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
EAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PCPN CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MILDEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE FA BY 12Z SUNDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT BRINGING DOWN COOLER TEMPS THEREAFTER. MORE MODEL
DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY FOR MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING SOME
SLIGHT PCPN CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST AND THE GFS SHOWING THEM ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES CONTINUES TO COME ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN A FAIRLY THICK LAYER. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A MENTION OF A
20000 FT CIG TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SMOKE. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE
SOME HAZE DEVELOPING LATER ON TONIGHT...AND THAT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS WE DECOUPLE. NOT SURE ENOUGH FOR SOME 3-5SM IN HAZE
DEVELOPING TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
AMEND AS NEEDED. NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...JR



000
FXUS63 KFGF 292358
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
658 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

KEPT A BIT OF LOW POPS IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN CASE A STRAY
SHOWER DEVELOPS...BUT NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH AS THE MAIN PRECIP
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN WELL TO OUR EAST. SMOKE CONTINUES TO
BE AN ISSUE...WITH TEMPS KEPT IN THE 70S TODAY BY THE THICK LAYER
OVERHEAD. GIVEN ITS POSITION HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE DID NOT
INCLUDE SMOKE MENTION IN THE GRIDS BUT BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A
BIT THIS EVENING. THINK THAT SMOKE SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE LATER
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SMOKE
INFLUENCING TEMPS. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH ANY PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THU...WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...THE THICK SMOKE PLUME OVER THE AREA SHOULD DISPERSE
SOME BUT MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT WHERE IT PERSISTS.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR A STORM IN THE FAR WEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FOR WED/THU...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR A STORM
MAINLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM CLOUD AND IF
THERE IS ANY SMOKE STILL AROUND...WHICH IS POSSIBLE WITH
PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN QPF AREA SHOULD BE ALONG OR
JUST WEST OF THE FA...WITH DEEPER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE ALSO TO OUR
WEST.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ONE SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
EAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PCPN CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MILDEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE FA BY 12Z SUNDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT BRINGING DOWN COOLER TEMPS THEREAFTER. MORE MODEL
DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY FOR MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING SOME
SLIGHT PCPN CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST AND THE GFS SHOWING THEM ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES CONTINUES TO COME ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN A FAIRLY THICK LAYER. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A MENTION OF A
20000 FT CIG TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SMOKE. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE
SOME HAZE DEVELOPING LATER ON TONIGHT...AND THAT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS WE DECOUPLE. NOT SURE ENOUGH FOR SOME 3-5SM IN HAZE
DEVELOPING TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
AMEND AS NEEDED. NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...JR



000
FXUS63 KBIS 292357
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
657 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHERN DUNN AND EASTERN STARK
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST. STILL VERY UNSTABLE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WITH 2-3 THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE...BUT NOTHING GET
THINGS STARTED. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWEST...AND INTO GRANT COUNTY THROUGH 9 PM. ALSO KEPT HAZE IN
THE EAST THROUGH SUNSET. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN BOWMAN AND HETTINGER. SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO GET GOING
HERE BUT HAVING A HARD TIME. DID SEE ONE CELL PRODUCE A LITTLE
LIGHTNING...AND ANOTHER MAY YET FORM. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH THROUGH DICKINSON AND DUNN COUNTY WHERE CU IS
A LITTLE MORE CONGESTED. ADDED SOME HAZE IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH OVER
HUDSON BAY WAS PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WAS EVIDENT ON SAT PICS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL SMOKE APPEARED
TO BE OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...EVEN A FEW LOWER 90S REPORTED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUND THE APEX IN SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. THE FIRST ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SPREADING/EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ELEVATED WITH THIS
WAVE OF IMPULSES...CAPE IS WEAK.

TUESDAY MORNING...THE LARGE AREA ENCOMPASSED BY THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BULK SHEAR STILL ELEVATED BUT CAPE VALUES NOT
OF A CONCERN FOR ANY KIND OF SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE BACK EDGE OF THE FIRST ROUND OF
IMPULSES/SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WITH
A BIT OF CLEARING IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CAPE
VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE BULK
SHEAR STILL ELEVATED AT 35-50 KNOTS. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH
DAKOTA...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE.
WILL NOT YET MENTION SEVERE WORDING...AS STORM PREDICTION CENTER
KEEPS A MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFTERNOON.

COOLER TUESDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 70S CENTRAL TO 80S WEST WITH THE
TEMPORARY AFTERNOON CLEARING BEFORE THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BEGIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM COULD START OUT RATHER STORMY. A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING AND WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND VERY STRONG SHEAR (50-60 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR) COULD
SPARK SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES OVERNIGHT A TRANSITION TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS
DISSIPATE AND ALLOW AFTERNOON HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEARBY THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

AT THIS TIME...INDEPENDENCE DAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...HOWEVER THE
LONG TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY EVENING. A MINOR CHANGE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON 4TH OF JULY PLANS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SMOKE FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. VSBYS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 6SM FOR
ALL TAF SITES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF ADDITIONAL SMOKE OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THAT WILL DROP INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ALSO A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
SO HARD TO TELL HOW EXTENSIVE THE SMOKE WILL BE. THERE ARE SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY OVER SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR...BUT FOR NOW NO MENTION OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO
HAZE/SMOKE. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. COVERED THIS WITH MAINLY VCSH THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING...THEN -SHRA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
LOOKS LIMITED SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. THE EXCEPTION
BEING KISN WHICH MIGHT MISS OUT ON THE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY...THUS ALLOWING MORE HEATING AND A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDED A VCTS FOR KDIK 21-24 UTC
TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 292357
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
657 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHERN DUNN AND EASTERN STARK
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST. STILL VERY UNSTABLE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WITH 2-3 THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE...BUT NOTHING GET
THINGS STARTED. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWEST...AND INTO GRANT COUNTY THROUGH 9 PM. ALSO KEPT HAZE IN
THE EAST THROUGH SUNSET. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN BOWMAN AND HETTINGER. SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO GET GOING
HERE BUT HAVING A HARD TIME. DID SEE ONE CELL PRODUCE A LITTLE
LIGHTNING...AND ANOTHER MAY YET FORM. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH THROUGH DICKINSON AND DUNN COUNTY WHERE CU IS
A LITTLE MORE CONGESTED. ADDED SOME HAZE IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH OVER
HUDSON BAY WAS PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WAS EVIDENT ON SAT PICS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL SMOKE APPEARED
TO BE OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...EVEN A FEW LOWER 90S REPORTED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUND THE APEX IN SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. THE FIRST ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SPREADING/EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ELEVATED WITH THIS
WAVE OF IMPULSES...CAPE IS WEAK.

TUESDAY MORNING...THE LARGE AREA ENCOMPASSED BY THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BULK SHEAR STILL ELEVATED BUT CAPE VALUES NOT
OF A CONCERN FOR ANY KIND OF SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE BACK EDGE OF THE FIRST ROUND OF
IMPULSES/SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WITH
A BIT OF CLEARING IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CAPE
VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE BULK
SHEAR STILL ELEVATED AT 35-50 KNOTS. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH
DAKOTA...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE.
WILL NOT YET MENTION SEVERE WORDING...AS STORM PREDICTION CENTER
KEEPS A MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFTERNOON.

COOLER TUESDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 70S CENTRAL TO 80S WEST WITH THE
TEMPORARY AFTERNOON CLEARING BEFORE THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BEGIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM COULD START OUT RATHER STORMY. A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING AND WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND VERY STRONG SHEAR (50-60 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR) COULD
SPARK SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES OVERNIGHT A TRANSITION TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS
DISSIPATE AND ALLOW AFTERNOON HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEARBY THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

AT THIS TIME...INDEPENDENCE DAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...HOWEVER THE
LONG TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY EVENING. A MINOR CHANGE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON 4TH OF JULY PLANS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SMOKE FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. VSBYS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 6SM FOR
ALL TAF SITES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF ADDITIONAL SMOKE OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THAT WILL DROP INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ALSO A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
SO HARD TO TELL HOW EXTENSIVE THE SMOKE WILL BE. THERE ARE SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY OVER SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR...BUT FOR NOW NO MENTION OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO
HAZE/SMOKE. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. COVERED THIS WITH MAINLY VCSH THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING...THEN -SHRA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
LOOKS LIMITED SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. THE EXCEPTION
BEING KISN WHICH MIGHT MISS OUT ON THE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY...THUS ALLOWING MORE HEATING AND A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDED A VCTS FOR KDIK 21-24 UTC
TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 292357
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
657 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHERN DUNN AND EASTERN STARK
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST. STILL VERY UNSTABLE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WITH 2-3 THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE...BUT NOTHING GET
THINGS STARTED. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWEST...AND INTO GRANT COUNTY THROUGH 9 PM. ALSO KEPT HAZE IN
THE EAST THROUGH SUNSET. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN BOWMAN AND HETTINGER. SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO GET GOING
HERE BUT HAVING A HARD TIME. DID SEE ONE CELL PRODUCE A LITTLE
LIGHTNING...AND ANOTHER MAY YET FORM. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH THROUGH DICKINSON AND DUNN COUNTY WHERE CU IS
A LITTLE MORE CONGESTED. ADDED SOME HAZE IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH OVER
HUDSON BAY WAS PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WAS EVIDENT ON SAT PICS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL SMOKE APPEARED
TO BE OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...EVEN A FEW LOWER 90S REPORTED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUND THE APEX IN SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. THE FIRST ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SPREADING/EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ELEVATED WITH THIS
WAVE OF IMPULSES...CAPE IS WEAK.

TUESDAY MORNING...THE LARGE AREA ENCOMPASSED BY THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BULK SHEAR STILL ELEVATED BUT CAPE VALUES NOT
OF A CONCERN FOR ANY KIND OF SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE BACK EDGE OF THE FIRST ROUND OF
IMPULSES/SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WITH
A BIT OF CLEARING IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CAPE
VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE BULK
SHEAR STILL ELEVATED AT 35-50 KNOTS. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH
DAKOTA...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE.
WILL NOT YET MENTION SEVERE WORDING...AS STORM PREDICTION CENTER
KEEPS A MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFTERNOON.

COOLER TUESDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 70S CENTRAL TO 80S WEST WITH THE
TEMPORARY AFTERNOON CLEARING BEFORE THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BEGIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM COULD START OUT RATHER STORMY. A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING AND WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND VERY STRONG SHEAR (50-60 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR) COULD
SPARK SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES OVERNIGHT A TRANSITION TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS
DISSIPATE AND ALLOW AFTERNOON HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEARBY THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

AT THIS TIME...INDEPENDENCE DAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...HOWEVER THE
LONG TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY EVENING. A MINOR CHANGE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON 4TH OF JULY PLANS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SMOKE FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. VSBYS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 6SM FOR
ALL TAF SITES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF ADDITIONAL SMOKE OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THAT WILL DROP INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ALSO A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
SO HARD TO TELL HOW EXTENSIVE THE SMOKE WILL BE. THERE ARE SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY OVER SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR...BUT FOR NOW NO MENTION OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO
HAZE/SMOKE. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. COVERED THIS WITH MAINLY VCSH THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING...THEN -SHRA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
LOOKS LIMITED SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. THE EXCEPTION
BEING KISN WHICH MIGHT MISS OUT ON THE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY...THUS ALLOWING MORE HEATING AND A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDED A VCTS FOR KDIK 21-24 UTC
TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 292357
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
657 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHERN DUNN AND EASTERN STARK
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST. STILL VERY UNSTABLE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WITH 2-3 THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE...BUT NOTHING GET
THINGS STARTED. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWEST...AND INTO GRANT COUNTY THROUGH 9 PM. ALSO KEPT HAZE IN
THE EAST THROUGH SUNSET. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN BOWMAN AND HETTINGER. SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO GET GOING
HERE BUT HAVING A HARD TIME. DID SEE ONE CELL PRODUCE A LITTLE
LIGHTNING...AND ANOTHER MAY YET FORM. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH THROUGH DICKINSON AND DUNN COUNTY WHERE CU IS
A LITTLE MORE CONGESTED. ADDED SOME HAZE IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH OVER
HUDSON BAY WAS PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WAS EVIDENT ON SAT PICS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL SMOKE APPEARED
TO BE OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...EVEN A FEW LOWER 90S REPORTED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUND THE APEX IN SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. THE FIRST ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SPREADING/EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ELEVATED WITH THIS
WAVE OF IMPULSES...CAPE IS WEAK.

TUESDAY MORNING...THE LARGE AREA ENCOMPASSED BY THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BULK SHEAR STILL ELEVATED BUT CAPE VALUES NOT
OF A CONCERN FOR ANY KIND OF SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE BACK EDGE OF THE FIRST ROUND OF
IMPULSES/SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WITH
A BIT OF CLEARING IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CAPE
VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE BULK
SHEAR STILL ELEVATED AT 35-50 KNOTS. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH
DAKOTA...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE.
WILL NOT YET MENTION SEVERE WORDING...AS STORM PREDICTION CENTER
KEEPS A MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFTERNOON.

COOLER TUESDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 70S CENTRAL TO 80S WEST WITH THE
TEMPORARY AFTERNOON CLEARING BEFORE THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BEGIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM COULD START OUT RATHER STORMY. A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING AND WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND VERY STRONG SHEAR (50-60 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR) COULD
SPARK SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES OVERNIGHT A TRANSITION TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS
DISSIPATE AND ALLOW AFTERNOON HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEARBY THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

AT THIS TIME...INDEPENDENCE DAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...HOWEVER THE
LONG TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY EVENING. A MINOR CHANGE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON 4TH OF JULY PLANS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SMOKE FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. VSBYS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 6SM FOR
ALL TAF SITES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF ADDITIONAL SMOKE OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THAT WILL DROP INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ALSO A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
SO HARD TO TELL HOW EXTENSIVE THE SMOKE WILL BE. THERE ARE SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY OVER SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR...BUT FOR NOW NO MENTION OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO
HAZE/SMOKE. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. COVERED THIS WITH MAINLY VCSH THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING...THEN -SHRA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
LOOKS LIMITED SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. THE EXCEPTION
BEING KISN WHICH MIGHT MISS OUT ON THE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY...THUS ALLOWING MORE HEATING AND A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDED A VCTS FOR KDIK 21-24 UTC
TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 292244
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
544 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN BOWMAN AND HETTINGER. SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO GET GOING
HERE BUT HAVING A HARD TIME. DID SEE ONE CELL PRODUCE A LITTLE
LIGHTNING...AND ANOTHER MAY YET FORM. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH THROUGH DICKINSON AND DUNN COUNTY WHERE CU IS
A LITTLE MORE CONGESTED. ADDED SOME HAZE IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH OVER
HUDSON BAY WAS PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WAS EVIDENT ON SAT PICS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL SMOKE APPEARED
TO BE OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...EVEN A FEW LOWER 90S REPORTED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUND THE APEX IN SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. THE FIRST ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SPREADING/EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ELEVATED WITH THIS
WAVE OF IMPULSES...CAPE IS WEAK.

TUESDAY MORNING...THE LARGE AREA ENCOMPASSED BY THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BULK SHEAR STILL ELEVATED BUT CAPE VALUES NOT
OF A CONCERN FOR ANY KIND OF SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE BACK EDGE OF THE FIRST ROUND OF
IMPULSES/SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WITH
A BIT OF CLEARING IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CAPE
VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE BULK
SHEAR STILL ELEVATED AT 35-50 KNOTS. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH
DAKOTA...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE.
WILL NOT YET MENTION SEVERE WORDING...AS STORM PREDICTION CENTER
KEEPS A MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFTERNOON.

COOLER TUESDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 70S CENTRAL TO 80S WEST WITH THE
TEMPORARY AFTERNOON CLEARING BEFORE THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BEGIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM COULD START OUT RATHER STORMY. A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING AND WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND VERY STRONG SHEAR (50-60 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR) COULD
SPARK SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES OVERNIGHT A TRANSITION TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS
DISSIPATE AND ALLOW AFTERNOON HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEARBY THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

AT THIS TIME...INDEPENDENCE DAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...HOWEVER THE
LONG TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY EVENING. A MINOR CHANGE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON 4TH OF JULY PLANS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SMOKE FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. VSBYS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 6SM
FOR ALL TAF SITES.  A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM A LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WAS APPROACHING THE I-94 CORRIDOR (KJMS AND
KFAR) EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH.
LATE TONIGHT AFT 06Z EXPECT MID CLOUD VFR CIGS TO MOVE/DEVELOP OVER
KISN/KMOT WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER AT KISN AND
KMOT MAINLY TOWARDS 12Z. HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH VCSH...AS TIME
PERIOD IS AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 292244
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
544 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN BOWMAN AND HETTINGER. SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO GET GOING
HERE BUT HAVING A HARD TIME. DID SEE ONE CELL PRODUCE A LITTLE
LIGHTNING...AND ANOTHER MAY YET FORM. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH THROUGH DICKINSON AND DUNN COUNTY WHERE CU IS
A LITTLE MORE CONGESTED. ADDED SOME HAZE IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH OVER
HUDSON BAY WAS PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WAS EVIDENT ON SAT PICS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL SMOKE APPEARED
TO BE OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...EVEN A FEW LOWER 90S REPORTED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUND THE APEX IN SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. THE FIRST ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SPREADING/EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ELEVATED WITH THIS
WAVE OF IMPULSES...CAPE IS WEAK.

TUESDAY MORNING...THE LARGE AREA ENCOMPASSED BY THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BULK SHEAR STILL ELEVATED BUT CAPE VALUES NOT
OF A CONCERN FOR ANY KIND OF SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE BACK EDGE OF THE FIRST ROUND OF
IMPULSES/SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WITH
A BIT OF CLEARING IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CAPE
VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE BULK
SHEAR STILL ELEVATED AT 35-50 KNOTS. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH
DAKOTA...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE.
WILL NOT YET MENTION SEVERE WORDING...AS STORM PREDICTION CENTER
KEEPS A MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFTERNOON.

COOLER TUESDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 70S CENTRAL TO 80S WEST WITH THE
TEMPORARY AFTERNOON CLEARING BEFORE THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BEGIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM COULD START OUT RATHER STORMY. A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING AND WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND VERY STRONG SHEAR (50-60 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR) COULD
SPARK SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES OVERNIGHT A TRANSITION TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS
DISSIPATE AND ALLOW AFTERNOON HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEARBY THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

AT THIS TIME...INDEPENDENCE DAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...HOWEVER THE
LONG TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY EVENING. A MINOR CHANGE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON 4TH OF JULY PLANS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SMOKE FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. VSBYS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 6SM
FOR ALL TAF SITES.  A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM A LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WAS APPROACHING THE I-94 CORRIDOR (KJMS AND
KFAR) EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH.
LATE TONIGHT AFT 06Z EXPECT MID CLOUD VFR CIGS TO MOVE/DEVELOP OVER
KISN/KMOT WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER AT KISN AND
KMOT MAINLY TOWARDS 12Z. HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH VCSH...AS TIME
PERIOD IS AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KFGF 291957
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
257 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SMOKE
INFLUENCING TEMPS. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH ANY PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THU...WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...THE THICK SMOKE PLUME OVER THE AREA SHOULD DISPERSE
SOME BUT MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT WHERE IT PERSISTS.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR A STORM IN THE FAR WEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FOR WED/THU...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR A STORM
MAINLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM CLOUD AND IF
THERE IS ANY SMOKE STILL AROUND...WHICH IS POSSIBLE WITH
PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN QPF AREA SHOULD BE ALONG OR
JUST WEST OF THE FA...WITH DEEPER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE ALSO TO OUR
WEST.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ONE SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
EAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PCPN CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MILDEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE FA BY 12Z SUNDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT BRINGING DOWN COOLER TEMPS THEREAFTER. MORE MODEL
DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY FOR MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING SOME
SLIGHT PCPN CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST AND THE GFS SHOWING THEM ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER PRETTY MUCH ACTING LIKE A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CIRRUS DECK. WILL KEEP THIS MENTIONED IN THE TAFS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD ALTHOUGH IT MAY GO SCT AT TIMES. THERE WAS A BIT OF HAZE
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND THERE COULD BE SOME AROUND AGAIN TUE
MORNING. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
NORTH-NW WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT LATER ON THIS EVENING. SOME MODELS
SHOW SOME PCPN NEAR KDVL BY LATE TUE MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE ALSO LOW
WITH THIS...LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD IF CONFIDENCE GROWS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KBIS 291942
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
242 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH OVER
HUDSON BAY WAS PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WAS EVIDENT ON SAT PICS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL SMOKE APPEARED
TO BE OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...EVEN A FEW LOWER 90S REPORTED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUND THE APEX IN SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. THE FIRST ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SPREADING/EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ELEVATED WITH THIS
WAVE OF IMPULSES...CAPE IS WEAK.

TUESDAY MORNING...THE LARGE AREA ENCOMPASSED BY THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BULK SHEAR STILL ELEVATED BUT CAPE VALUES NOT
OF A CONCERN FOR ANY KIND OF SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE BACK EDGE OF THE FIRST ROUND OF
IMPULSES/SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WITH
A BIT OF CLEARING IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CAPE
VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE BULK
SHEAR STILL ELEVATED AT 35-50 KNOTS. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH
DAKOTA...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE.
WILL NOT YET MENTION SEVERE WORDING...AS STORM PREDICTION CENTER
KEEPS A MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFTERNOON.

COOLER TUESDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 70S CENTRAL TO 80S WEST WITH THE
TEMPORARY AFTERNOON CLEARING BEFORE THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BEGIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM COULD START OUT RATHER STORMY. A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING AND WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND VERY STRONG SHEAR (50-60 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR) COULD
SPARK SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES OVERNIGHT A TRANSITION TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS
DISSIPATE AND ALLOW AFTERNOON HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEARBY THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

AT THIS TIME...INDEPENDENCE DAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...HOWEVER THE
LONG TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY EVENING. A MINOR CHANGE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON 4TH OF JULY PLANS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SMOKE FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. VSBYS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 6SM
FOR ALL TAF SITES.  A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM A LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WAS APPROACHING THE I-94 CORRIDOR (KJMS AND
KFAR) EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH.
LATE TONIGHT AFT 06Z EXPECT MID CLOUD VFR CIGS TO MOVE/DEVELOP OVER
KISN/KMOT WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER AT KISN AND
KMOT MAINLY TOWARDS 12Z. HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH VCSH...AS TIME
PERIOD IS AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 291942
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
242 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH OVER
HUDSON BAY WAS PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WAS EVIDENT ON SAT PICS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL SMOKE APPEARED
TO BE OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...EVEN A FEW LOWER 90S REPORTED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUND THE APEX IN SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. THE FIRST ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SPREADING/EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ELEVATED WITH THIS
WAVE OF IMPULSES...CAPE IS WEAK.

TUESDAY MORNING...THE LARGE AREA ENCOMPASSED BY THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BULK SHEAR STILL ELEVATED BUT CAPE VALUES NOT
OF A CONCERN FOR ANY KIND OF SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE BACK EDGE OF THE FIRST ROUND OF
IMPULSES/SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WITH
A BIT OF CLEARING IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CAPE
VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE BULK
SHEAR STILL ELEVATED AT 35-50 KNOTS. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH
DAKOTA...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE.
WILL NOT YET MENTION SEVERE WORDING...AS STORM PREDICTION CENTER
KEEPS A MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFTERNOON.

COOLER TUESDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 70S CENTRAL TO 80S WEST WITH THE
TEMPORARY AFTERNOON CLEARING BEFORE THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BEGIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM COULD START OUT RATHER STORMY. A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING AND WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND VERY STRONG SHEAR (50-60 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR) COULD
SPARK SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES OVERNIGHT A TRANSITION TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS
DISSIPATE AND ALLOW AFTERNOON HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEARBY THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

AT THIS TIME...INDEPENDENCE DAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...HOWEVER THE
LONG TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY EVENING. A MINOR CHANGE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON 4TH OF JULY PLANS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SMOKE FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. VSBYS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 6SM
FOR ALL TAF SITES.  A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM A LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WAS APPROACHING THE I-94 CORRIDOR (KJMS AND
KFAR) EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH.
LATE TONIGHT AFT 06Z EXPECT MID CLOUD VFR CIGS TO MOVE/DEVELOP OVER
KISN/KMOT WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER AT KISN AND
KMOT MAINLY TOWARDS 12Z. HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH VCSH...AS TIME
PERIOD IS AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KFGF 291741
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1241 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

NO CHANGE FROM MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN 500 MB SHORT WAVE OF NOTE TODAY IS SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST THRU FAR EASTERN MANITOBA CURRENTLY. SCATTERED STORMS
NOTED WITH IT. THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP SSE THRU INL THEN TOWARD MSP
TODAY. IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE ERN/SE FCST AREA. NEW
DAY 1 SPC HAS MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK A TAD FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND
HAVE THE AREAS FROM LAKE OF THE WOODS TO WAPHETON IN MARGINAL RISK
OF SVR. THINK THAT IS REASONABLE AS COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED.
CAPES BRIEFLY GET INTO THE 2000 J/KG RANGE ERN FCST AREA 18Z-21Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN SE SASK WILL DROP INTO
CNTRL ND TODAY. AN ISOLATED HIGH BASED T-STORM IS PSBL WITH MAX
HEATING SOMEWHERE IN SCNTRL ND INTO SD....MAYBE AFFECTING FAR SW
FCST AREA...BUT FEEL AFTER COLLAB WITH BIS/ABR RISK IS 10 PCT OR
LOWER AND WILL NOT MENTION. HIGH BASED SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES IN
NRN SASK WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY...THICKEST IN CNTRL ND AS
UPPER FLOW MORE NNW. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP TODAY
AS THE UPPER WAVE GOES TO OUR EAST INTO THE 10-20 KT RANGE.

SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE INTO SRN SASK/WRN ND
TUESDAY AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY BRUSH FAR WRN/SW FCST AREA
AND WILL KEEP A LOW POP FOR THIS MAINLY TUES MIDDAY-AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

WRN/SW FCST AREA TO REMAIN NEAR A ZONE WHERE SHORT WAVES FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL TRAVEL AS HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED TO OUR
NORTHEAST. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP AMTS FROM YESTERDAYS
RUNS AND ALSO KEEPS BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP MORE CNTRL ND.

THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD WILL SEE THE AREA IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WITH A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE
AREA. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A WAVE PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS...WITH A LITTLE BIT OF COOLING FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES...ALONG
WITH BREEZIER CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...A MORE VIGOROUS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE AREA...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO END THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER PRETTY MUCH ACTING LIKE A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CIRRUS DECK. WILL KEEP THIS MENTIONED IN THE TAFS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD ALTHOUGH IT MAY GO SCT AT TIMES. THERE WAS A BIT OF HAZE
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND THERE COULD BE SOME AROUND AGAIN TUE
MORNING. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
NORTH-NW WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT LATER ON THIS EVENING. SOME MODELS
SHOW SOME PCPN NEAR KDVL BY LATE TUE MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE ALSO LOW
WITH THIS...LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD IF CONFIDENCE GROWS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON



000
FXUS63 KFGF 291741
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1241 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

NO CHANGE FROM MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN 500 MB SHORT WAVE OF NOTE TODAY IS SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST THRU FAR EASTERN MANITOBA CURRENTLY. SCATTERED STORMS
NOTED WITH IT. THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP SSE THRU INL THEN TOWARD MSP
TODAY. IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE ERN/SE FCST AREA. NEW
DAY 1 SPC HAS MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK A TAD FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND
HAVE THE AREAS FROM LAKE OF THE WOODS TO WAPHETON IN MARGINAL RISK
OF SVR. THINK THAT IS REASONABLE AS COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED.
CAPES BRIEFLY GET INTO THE 2000 J/KG RANGE ERN FCST AREA 18Z-21Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN SE SASK WILL DROP INTO
CNTRL ND TODAY. AN ISOLATED HIGH BASED T-STORM IS PSBL WITH MAX
HEATING SOMEWHERE IN SCNTRL ND INTO SD....MAYBE AFFECTING FAR SW
FCST AREA...BUT FEEL AFTER COLLAB WITH BIS/ABR RISK IS 10 PCT OR
LOWER AND WILL NOT MENTION. HIGH BASED SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES IN
NRN SASK WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY...THICKEST IN CNTRL ND AS
UPPER FLOW MORE NNW. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP TODAY
AS THE UPPER WAVE GOES TO OUR EAST INTO THE 10-20 KT RANGE.

SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE INTO SRN SASK/WRN ND
TUESDAY AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY BRUSH FAR WRN/SW FCST AREA
AND WILL KEEP A LOW POP FOR THIS MAINLY TUES MIDDAY-AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

WRN/SW FCST AREA TO REMAIN NEAR A ZONE WHERE SHORT WAVES FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL TRAVEL AS HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED TO OUR
NORTHEAST. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP AMTS FROM YESTERDAYS
RUNS AND ALSO KEEPS BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP MORE CNTRL ND.

THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD WILL SEE THE AREA IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WITH A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE
AREA. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A WAVE PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS...WITH A LITTLE BIT OF COOLING FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES...ALONG
WITH BREEZIER CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...A MORE VIGOROUS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE AREA...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO END THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER PRETTY MUCH ACTING LIKE A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CIRRUS DECK. WILL KEEP THIS MENTIONED IN THE TAFS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD ALTHOUGH IT MAY GO SCT AT TIMES. THERE WAS A BIT OF HAZE
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND THERE COULD BE SOME AROUND AGAIN TUE
MORNING. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
NORTH-NW WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT LATER ON THIS EVENING. SOME MODELS
SHOW SOME PCPN NEAR KDVL BY LATE TUE MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE ALSO LOW
WITH THIS...LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD IF CONFIDENCE GROWS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 291741
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1241 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

NO CHANGE FROM MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN 500 MB SHORT WAVE OF NOTE TODAY IS SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST THRU FAR EASTERN MANITOBA CURRENTLY. SCATTERED STORMS
NOTED WITH IT. THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP SSE THRU INL THEN TOWARD MSP
TODAY. IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE ERN/SE FCST AREA. NEW
DAY 1 SPC HAS MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK A TAD FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND
HAVE THE AREAS FROM LAKE OF THE WOODS TO WAPHETON IN MARGINAL RISK
OF SVR. THINK THAT IS REASONABLE AS COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED.
CAPES BRIEFLY GET INTO THE 2000 J/KG RANGE ERN FCST AREA 18Z-21Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN SE SASK WILL DROP INTO
CNTRL ND TODAY. AN ISOLATED HIGH BASED T-STORM IS PSBL WITH MAX
HEATING SOMEWHERE IN SCNTRL ND INTO SD....MAYBE AFFECTING FAR SW
FCST AREA...BUT FEEL AFTER COLLAB WITH BIS/ABR RISK IS 10 PCT OR
LOWER AND WILL NOT MENTION. HIGH BASED SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES IN
NRN SASK WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY...THICKEST IN CNTRL ND AS
UPPER FLOW MORE NNW. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP TODAY
AS THE UPPER WAVE GOES TO OUR EAST INTO THE 10-20 KT RANGE.

SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE INTO SRN SASK/WRN ND
TUESDAY AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY BRUSH FAR WRN/SW FCST AREA
AND WILL KEEP A LOW POP FOR THIS MAINLY TUES MIDDAY-AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

WRN/SW FCST AREA TO REMAIN NEAR A ZONE WHERE SHORT WAVES FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL TRAVEL AS HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED TO OUR
NORTHEAST. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP AMTS FROM YESTERDAYS
RUNS AND ALSO KEEPS BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP MORE CNTRL ND.

THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD WILL SEE THE AREA IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WITH A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE
AREA. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A WAVE PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS...WITH A LITTLE BIT OF COOLING FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES...ALONG
WITH BREEZIER CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...A MORE VIGOROUS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE AREA...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO END THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER PRETTY MUCH ACTING LIKE A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CIRRUS DECK. WILL KEEP THIS MENTIONED IN THE TAFS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD ALTHOUGH IT MAY GO SCT AT TIMES. THERE WAS A BIT OF HAZE
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND THERE COULD BE SOME AROUND AGAIN TUE
MORNING. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
NORTH-NW WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT LATER ON THIS EVENING. SOME MODELS
SHOW SOME PCPN NEAR KDVL BY LATE TUE MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE ALSO LOW
WITH THIS...LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD IF CONFIDENCE GROWS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KBIS 291729
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1229 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SAT PICS SHOW UPPER LEVEL SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES STILL IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES BASIN AND EAST. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT RISEN THERE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR THAT AREA TO MID 80S RATHER THAN
UPPER 80S. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE DAY IS THE SMOKE ALOFT FROM THE ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN FIRES POSSIBLY LIMITING INSOLATION AND...IN TURN...HIGH
TEMPS FOR TODAY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP APPEARS TO INDICATE THAT
THE SMOKE ALOFT IS IMPACTING THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
MAINLY SMOKE-FREE CONDITIONS WEST HALF. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY JET CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST TODAY AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. THUS
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEST AND UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 CENTRAL IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

INHERITED FORECAST IS ON TARGET WITH NO CHANGES WARRANTED.

A FEW SPRINKLES WERE IN THE SIDNEY...MONTANA AREA...AND IN
SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN NORTHWEST OF MINOT. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST
WITH RADAR SHOWING FEWER RETURNS THAN EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA BORDER. NORTH DAKOTA REMAINS IN
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. EARLY THIS MORNING...A SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN MONTANA
WITH AN ASSOCIATED 300MB 70KT JET STREAK THUS FAR HAS GENERATED
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN...JUST NORTH OF
DIVIDE COUNTY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE WAY OVERDONE WITH THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HAZE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
JAMESTOWN AIRPORT FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 6SM AND 7SM...WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS AT BISMARCK. ONE OF THE FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY IS THE
AMOUNT OF SMOKE/HAZE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE
CANADIAN WILDFIRES IN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. JUST LIKE
SUNDAY...THE SKY AND SUBSEQUENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS WILL BE
DEPENDENT UPON THE AMOUNT OF OBSCURATION ALOFT. NOT REAL CONFIDENT
ON THE TIMING EXTENT OF BLOCKED INSOLATION THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
OCCUR. HAVE MENTIONED HAZE IN THE GRIDS AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z AND
THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. SHALLOW INVERSIONS BREAKING BETWEEN
14Z AND 15Z WILL ALLOW LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LIFT AND IMPROVE
THEREAFTER.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. WEAK 3HR PRESSURE FALLS WERE OCCURRING OVER
SOUTHEAST MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTH. A HANDFUL OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED
WITHIN THE PRESSURE FALL AREA. AN 80KT-90KT JET STREAK IN SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE EAST INTO MANITOBA AND CENTRAL/EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN A
SHORTWAVE...THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET...AND THE SURFACE BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF
INTERACTION MENTIONED ABOVE. BEST FORCING REMAINS IN EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM NOT RELIABLE
THIS MORNING...AND THE RAP13 ALONG WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL
SUITE KEEPING THINGS DRY. TRYING TO COVER THE UNCERTAINTY WITH A
SLIGHT CHC OVER A LARGE AREA IS NOT PRUDENT AT THIS TIME. WILL
LET THE DAY SHIFT LOOK AT THE CURRENT DATA AND ADJUST IF NEED BE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...POPS INCREASE NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z AND THEN
EXPAND SOUTH THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF
THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... RIDES OVER
AND FLATTENS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE...SPAWNING AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY WEST. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW...WITH HIGHER POPS FOLLOWING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE PROTECTIVE RIDGE OF THE LAST FEW DAYS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM WITH A CHANGE TO COOLER AND STORMY
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SPIN
OFF THE LOW OFF OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WORK TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE
AS THEY PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE FIRST OF THESE
COMES IN FOR TUESDAY AND WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A
SURFACE FRONT COMES INCREASING INSTABILITY...ALBEIT IN A NARROW
BAND AS SHOWN ON MODELS...UP ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA
BORDER. AS FAR AS SEVERE STORMS GO...SPC HAS INCLUDED WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA.

ANOTHER WAVE IS SCHEDULED FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS ONE IS WEAKER
AND THE TIMING WOULD BE AT A RELATIVE MINIMUM FOR SEVERE WEATHER
RISK. THE THIRD AND FINAL ONE BEFORE THE RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES IS SET
FOR MID DAY THURSDAY. POPS CONTINUE RELATIVELY HIGH REFLECTING
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT.

THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND LOOKS DRY MOST OF THE TIME...WITH A
WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT HIGHLIGHTING THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SMOKE FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. VSBYS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 6SM
FOR ALL TAF SITES.  A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM A LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WAS APPROACHING THE I-94 CORRIDOR (KJMS AND
KFAR) EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH.
LATE TONIGHT AFT 06Z EXPECT MID CLOUD VFR CIGS TO MOVE/DEVELOP OVER
KISN/KMOT WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER AT KISN AND
KMOT MAINLY TOWARDS 12Z. HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH VCSH...AS TIME
PERIOD IS AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 291729
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1229 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SAT PICS SHOW UPPER LEVEL SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES STILL IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES BASIN AND EAST. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT RISEN THERE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR THAT AREA TO MID 80S RATHER THAN
UPPER 80S. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE DAY IS THE SMOKE ALOFT FROM THE ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN FIRES POSSIBLY LIMITING INSOLATION AND...IN TURN...HIGH
TEMPS FOR TODAY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP APPEARS TO INDICATE THAT
THE SMOKE ALOFT IS IMPACTING THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
MAINLY SMOKE-FREE CONDITIONS WEST HALF. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY JET CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST TODAY AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. THUS
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEST AND UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 CENTRAL IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

INHERITED FORECAST IS ON TARGET WITH NO CHANGES WARRANTED.

A FEW SPRINKLES WERE IN THE SIDNEY...MONTANA AREA...AND IN
SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN NORTHWEST OF MINOT. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST
WITH RADAR SHOWING FEWER RETURNS THAN EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA BORDER. NORTH DAKOTA REMAINS IN
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. EARLY THIS MORNING...A SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN MONTANA
WITH AN ASSOCIATED 300MB 70KT JET STREAK THUS FAR HAS GENERATED
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN...JUST NORTH OF
DIVIDE COUNTY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE WAY OVERDONE WITH THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HAZE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
JAMESTOWN AIRPORT FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 6SM AND 7SM...WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS AT BISMARCK. ONE OF THE FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY IS THE
AMOUNT OF SMOKE/HAZE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE
CANADIAN WILDFIRES IN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. JUST LIKE
SUNDAY...THE SKY AND SUBSEQUENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS WILL BE
DEPENDENT UPON THE AMOUNT OF OBSCURATION ALOFT. NOT REAL CONFIDENT
ON THE TIMING EXTENT OF BLOCKED INSOLATION THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
OCCUR. HAVE MENTIONED HAZE IN THE GRIDS AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z AND
THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. SHALLOW INVERSIONS BREAKING BETWEEN
14Z AND 15Z WILL ALLOW LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LIFT AND IMPROVE
THEREAFTER.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. WEAK 3HR PRESSURE FALLS WERE OCCURRING OVER
SOUTHEAST MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTH. A HANDFUL OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED
WITHIN THE PRESSURE FALL AREA. AN 80KT-90KT JET STREAK IN SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE EAST INTO MANITOBA AND CENTRAL/EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN A
SHORTWAVE...THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET...AND THE SURFACE BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF
INTERACTION MENTIONED ABOVE. BEST FORCING REMAINS IN EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM NOT RELIABLE
THIS MORNING...AND THE RAP13 ALONG WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL
SUITE KEEPING THINGS DRY. TRYING TO COVER THE UNCERTAINTY WITH A
SLIGHT CHC OVER A LARGE AREA IS NOT PRUDENT AT THIS TIME. WILL
LET THE DAY SHIFT LOOK AT THE CURRENT DATA AND ADJUST IF NEED BE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...POPS INCREASE NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z AND THEN
EXPAND SOUTH THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF
THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... RIDES OVER
AND FLATTENS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE...SPAWNING AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY WEST. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW...WITH HIGHER POPS FOLLOWING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE PROTECTIVE RIDGE OF THE LAST FEW DAYS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM WITH A CHANGE TO COOLER AND STORMY
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SPIN
OFF THE LOW OFF OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WORK TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE
AS THEY PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE FIRST OF THESE
COMES IN FOR TUESDAY AND WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A
SURFACE FRONT COMES INCREASING INSTABILITY...ALBEIT IN A NARROW
BAND AS SHOWN ON MODELS...UP ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA
BORDER. AS FAR AS SEVERE STORMS GO...SPC HAS INCLUDED WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA.

ANOTHER WAVE IS SCHEDULED FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS ONE IS WEAKER
AND THE TIMING WOULD BE AT A RELATIVE MINIMUM FOR SEVERE WEATHER
RISK. THE THIRD AND FINAL ONE BEFORE THE RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES IS SET
FOR MID DAY THURSDAY. POPS CONTINUE RELATIVELY HIGH REFLECTING
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT.

THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND LOOKS DRY MOST OF THE TIME...WITH A
WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT HIGHLIGHTING THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SMOKE FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. VSBYS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 6SM
FOR ALL TAF SITES.  A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM A LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WAS APPROACHING THE I-94 CORRIDOR (KJMS AND
KFAR) EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH.
LATE TONIGHT AFT 06Z EXPECT MID CLOUD VFR CIGS TO MOVE/DEVELOP OVER
KISN/KMOT WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER AT KISN AND
KMOT MAINLY TOWARDS 12Z. HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH VCSH...AS TIME
PERIOD IS AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KBIS 291729
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1229 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SAT PICS SHOW UPPER LEVEL SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES STILL IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES BASIN AND EAST. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT RISEN THERE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR THAT AREA TO MID 80S RATHER THAN
UPPER 80S. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE DAY IS THE SMOKE ALOFT FROM THE ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN FIRES POSSIBLY LIMITING INSOLATION AND...IN TURN...HIGH
TEMPS FOR TODAY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP APPEARS TO INDICATE THAT
THE SMOKE ALOFT IS IMPACTING THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
MAINLY SMOKE-FREE CONDITIONS WEST HALF. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY JET CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST TODAY AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. THUS
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEST AND UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 CENTRAL IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

INHERITED FORECAST IS ON TARGET WITH NO CHANGES WARRANTED.

A FEW SPRINKLES WERE IN THE SIDNEY...MONTANA AREA...AND IN
SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN NORTHWEST OF MINOT. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST
WITH RADAR SHOWING FEWER RETURNS THAN EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA BORDER. NORTH DAKOTA REMAINS IN
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. EARLY THIS MORNING...A SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN MONTANA
WITH AN ASSOCIATED 300MB 70KT JET STREAK THUS FAR HAS GENERATED
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN...JUST NORTH OF
DIVIDE COUNTY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE WAY OVERDONE WITH THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HAZE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
JAMESTOWN AIRPORT FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 6SM AND 7SM...WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS AT BISMARCK. ONE OF THE FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY IS THE
AMOUNT OF SMOKE/HAZE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE
CANADIAN WILDFIRES IN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. JUST LIKE
SUNDAY...THE SKY AND SUBSEQUENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS WILL BE
DEPENDENT UPON THE AMOUNT OF OBSCURATION ALOFT. NOT REAL CONFIDENT
ON THE TIMING EXTENT OF BLOCKED INSOLATION THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
OCCUR. HAVE MENTIONED HAZE IN THE GRIDS AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z AND
THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. SHALLOW INVERSIONS BREAKING BETWEEN
14Z AND 15Z WILL ALLOW LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LIFT AND IMPROVE
THEREAFTER.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. WEAK 3HR PRESSURE FALLS WERE OCCURRING OVER
SOUTHEAST MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTH. A HANDFUL OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED
WITHIN THE PRESSURE FALL AREA. AN 80KT-90KT JET STREAK IN SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE EAST INTO MANITOBA AND CENTRAL/EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN A
SHORTWAVE...THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET...AND THE SURFACE BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF
INTERACTION MENTIONED ABOVE. BEST FORCING REMAINS IN EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM NOT RELIABLE
THIS MORNING...AND THE RAP13 ALONG WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL
SUITE KEEPING THINGS DRY. TRYING TO COVER THE UNCERTAINTY WITH A
SLIGHT CHC OVER A LARGE AREA IS NOT PRUDENT AT THIS TIME. WILL
LET THE DAY SHIFT LOOK AT THE CURRENT DATA AND ADJUST IF NEED BE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...POPS INCREASE NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z AND THEN
EXPAND SOUTH THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF
THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... RIDES OVER
AND FLATTENS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE...SPAWNING AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY WEST. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW...WITH HIGHER POPS FOLLOWING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE PROTECTIVE RIDGE OF THE LAST FEW DAYS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM WITH A CHANGE TO COOLER AND STORMY
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SPIN
OFF THE LOW OFF OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WORK TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE
AS THEY PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE FIRST OF THESE
COMES IN FOR TUESDAY AND WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A
SURFACE FRONT COMES INCREASING INSTABILITY...ALBEIT IN A NARROW
BAND AS SHOWN ON MODELS...UP ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA
BORDER. AS FAR AS SEVERE STORMS GO...SPC HAS INCLUDED WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA.

ANOTHER WAVE IS SCHEDULED FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS ONE IS WEAKER
AND THE TIMING WOULD BE AT A RELATIVE MINIMUM FOR SEVERE WEATHER
RISK. THE THIRD AND FINAL ONE BEFORE THE RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES IS SET
FOR MID DAY THURSDAY. POPS CONTINUE RELATIVELY HIGH REFLECTING
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT.

THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND LOOKS DRY MOST OF THE TIME...WITH A
WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT HIGHLIGHTING THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SMOKE FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. VSBYS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 6SM
FOR ALL TAF SITES.  A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM A LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WAS APPROACHING THE I-94 CORRIDOR (KJMS AND
KFAR) EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH.
LATE TONIGHT AFT 06Z EXPECT MID CLOUD VFR CIGS TO MOVE/DEVELOP OVER
KISN/KMOT WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER AT KISN AND
KMOT MAINLY TOWARDS 12Z. HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH VCSH...AS TIME
PERIOD IS AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...JV




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