000
FXUS63 KFGF 222032
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
332 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

20 UTC SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW STRATUS/STRATOCU ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LISBON TO PARK RAPIDS. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SOME LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT...WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW
LOW INTO THE 30S TEMPERATURES DROP. CURRENT DEW POINTS ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN ARE AS LOW AS 34 DEGREES...SO DON/T THINK AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL MUCH FURTHER.

THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG
THE VALLEY FLOOR BY 18 UTC. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...SO DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT...FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
THE WEST AS A MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 300 K SURFACE AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR ONE INCH WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOST INSTABILITY
REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN MT...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION. STILL SOME PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY...LIKELY TO BE RAISED TO 60 PERCENT OR HIGHER
WHEN BETTER CONFIDENCE IS ACHIEVED.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR AT THIS TIME TO BE AN ALL DAY WASH
OUT. DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
COOL WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

FORECAST CHALLENGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE RW/T
CHANCES. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG RANGE.
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST PUTTING FA IN
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT BY FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. FOR MOST OF
THE WEEKEND LOW LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND SO QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR EAST CONVECTION
GETS AFTER DIURNAL INITIATION. BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN NEXT WEEK
AS LOW PRESSURE AND ABOVE FORCING AND MOISTURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EAST. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO HOLD AT OR A LITTLE BLO AVERAGE
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THEN MODERATING TO AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE
TO START WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MVFR STRATUS DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED JUST SOUTH OF
KBJI AND KFAR WITH CLEARING TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18 UTC THURSDAY WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AT TIMES TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WEAKENING
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WALHALLA AND NECHE ALONG
THE PEMBINA RIVER...WITH WALHALLA HAVING CRESTED EARLIER.

BIGGEST FORECAST CHANGE IS ALONG PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON WHERE THE
RECENT RAINFALL HAS TRIGGERED RAPID STAGE RISES TOWARD MAJOR AND
ULTIMATELY NEAR RECORD FLOOD LEVELS.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN
MAINSTEM RED AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES
TO THE RED. THESE POINTS ARE ALL EXPECTED TO ACHIEVE MINOR FLOOD
STAGE EXCEPT FOR OSLO WHERE MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.

AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR PEMBINA...EASTERN
CAVALIER...AND WALSH COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THEN AREAL
FLOODING SHOULD BECOME LESS OF A CONCERN WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION
AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME DRYING WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF THE RENWICK DAM ON THE TONGUE RIVER. WATER
REMAINS VERY HIGH AT THE DAM SITE AND IS BEING HELD BACK BY A
CONSTRUCTED EARTHEN LEVEE ON TOP OF THE DAM STRUCTURE.  ALSO...
OFFICIALS ARE CONTINUING TO MONITOR SEVERAL RETENTION DAMS TO THE
WEST OF RENWICK DAM.

AT THIS TIME...OFFICIALS NOTE THE TEMPORARY LEVEE ON TOP OF THE
RENWICK DAM APPEARS TO BE STABLE AND WILL BE CONTINUALLY MONITORED.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT REMAINS AND FAILURE WOULD MEAN MAJOR FLOODING
WOULD BE IMMINENT FOR THE CITIES OF AKRA...CAVALIER...AND BATHGATE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/VOELKER
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY...BH

000
FXUS63 KBIS 222018
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
318 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM IS STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF FOG DESPITE THE RECENT
RAINFALL AS EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT
SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO HOLD OFF FOG FORMATION. THIS IS
CONFIRMED BY THE 19 UTC LAMP GUIDANCE AND 15 UTC SREF VISIBILITY
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS.

FOR THURSDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA
AND A RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO YIELD A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE
GRADIENT WINDS ARE GREATEST...WITH 40-45 KTS TO MIX AT THE BASE
OF AN INVERSION AT 800 MB FORMED BY A LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME IN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS WIND DIRECTION DOES LIMIT
MIXING HEIGHTS...AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR 50+ KTS WITHIN THE
INVERSION TO BE MIXED TO THE SURFACE. HAVE THUS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA FROM 15-03 UTC.
OTHERWISE...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FIELDS A BLEND OF
THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUITE WAS USED
GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/ROCKIES WILL EXPAND...AND FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
STATE.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG THE FIRST IMPULSE TO EJECT FROM OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC NORTHWEST/ROCKIES LOW OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DEVELOPING AREA-WIDE ON FRIDAY...WITH THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TAP WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PERSISTENT RETURN
FLOW SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HIGHS
IN THE 60S CENTRAL AND 70S WEST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MEMORIAL DAY...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S OVER ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DESPITE RECENT RAINFALL...EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...FOR WEDNESDAY...STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
MONTANA. GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KDIK...25-30 KTS AT
KISN...KMOT AND KBIS...AND 20-25 KTS AT KJMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

LAKE DARLING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE RELEASES TO 1000 CFS THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SOURIS RIVER AT FOXHOLM TO RISE ABOVE
MINOR FLOOD STAGE. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY AS A POSSIBLE RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
IS FORECAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW
MUCH WATER WILL ARRIVE IN THE CHANNEL FROM RECENT RAINFALL.
FINALLY...DID CANCEL THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE PIPESTEM CREEK NEAR
PINGREE AS RUNOFF HAS TURNED OUT TO BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/
THURSDAY FOR NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD
HYDROLOGY...AYD

000
FXUS63 KFGF 221825 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
125 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

CONFINED REMAINING POPS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM FORMAN TO WAHPETON TO WADENA. LOW STRATUS AND LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE
RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ADJUSTED
SKY AND AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO MATCH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1024 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE AS THE INHERITED
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO 15 UTC OBSERVED TRENDS. GIVEN
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...DID INCREASE POPS TO NEAR 100
FOR THIS MORNING ACROSS LAKES COUNTRY...DECREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE CWA EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE BY 22-00
UTC. THE RAP HAS PERFORMED WELL IN REGARDS TO THE STRATUS SHIELD
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND FOLLOWED ITS LATEST 14 UTC SOLUTION
FOR CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PICKING UP HAVE SCOURED OUT THE FOG
THAT WAS STARTING TO FORM OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...SO
REMOVED MENTION FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. RAIN WILL LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR A WHILE LONGER THIS MORNING BEFORE
DRYING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINNING TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CWA AS IT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO IA TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS
STARTED TO NOSE DOWN OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOST
OF THE PRECIP HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS STILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE NORTH HAS
CLEARED OUT COMPLETELY AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMATION AROUND CANDO AND LANGDON. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THINK THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON OBS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER AND AROUND 60 WHILE THE NORTH WILL BE A BIT
WARMER. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE FURTHER DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP THE NORTHER TIER ALONG WITH
EASTERN COUNTIES GET DOWN TO BELOW 40 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE QUIET AND A BIT WARMER AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH SOME DECENT SUNSHINE KEPT HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THURSDAY NIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS STILL START PICKING UP OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER MN/WI ALONG WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER MT CREATES A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE
WINDS WILL HELP KEEP THE WESTERN COUNTIES FROM COMPLETELY
DECOUPLING AND STAY A BIT WARMER WHILE THE EAST WILL AGAIN DROP TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LEE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS. MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COMING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRODUCING SOME PRECIP FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS POINT THE INSTABILITY SEEMS FAIRLY WEAK WITH SFC BASED CAPE
STAYING WEST OF OUR AREA AND ONLY A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED CAPE TO
WORK WITH. INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES IN OUR WEST.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
US...WITH SOME DEGREE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE PLAINS
DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EJECTING OUT OF THE BROADER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL LEAD TO
BOUTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE LOW
TO MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INDIVIDUAL
WAVES. WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES IS LOW...SO CONTINUED TO CARRY
SOME POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MANY DRY HOURS ARE
EXPECTED.

THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A TREND TO A MORE PREDOMINANT ACTIVE
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE GFS/ECMWF 925 MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 20C ON TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPS RISING
FROM MAINLY THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY OR
TUESDAY...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MVFR STRATUS DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED JUST SOUTH OF
KBJI AND KFAR WITH CLEARING TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18 UTC THURSDAY WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AT TIMES TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WEAKENING
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WALHALLA AND NECHE ALONG
THE PEMBINA RIVER...WITH WALHALLA HAVING CRESTED EARLIER.

BIGGEST FORECAST CHANGE IS ALONG PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON WHERE THE
RECENT RAINFALL HAS TRIGGERED RAPID STAGE RISES TOWARD MAJOR AND
ULTIMATELY NEAR RECORD FLOOD LEVELS.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN
MAINSTEM RED AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES
TO THE RED. THESE POINTS ARE ALL EXPECTED TO ACHIEVE MINOR FLOOD
STAGE EXCEPT FOR OSLO WHERE MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.

AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR PEMBINA...EASTERN
CAVALIER...AND WALSH COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THEN AREAL
FLOODING SHOULD BECOME LESS OF A CONCERN WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION
AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME DRYING WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF THE RENWICK DAM ON THE TONGUE RIVER. WATER
REMAINS VERY HIGH AT THE DAM SITE AND IS BEING HELD BACK BY A
CONSTRUCTED EARTHEN LEVEE ON TOP OF THE DAM STRUCTURE.  ALSO...
OFFICIALS ARE CONTINUING TO MONITOR SEVERAL RETENTION DAMS TO THE
WEST OF RENWICK DAM.

AT THIS TIME...OFFICIALS NOTE THE TEMPORARY LEVEE ON TOP OF THE
RENWICK DAM APPEARS TO BE STABLE AND WILL BE CONTINUALLY MONITORED.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT REMAINS AND FAILURE WOULD MEAN MAJOR FLOODING
WOULD BE IMMINENT FOR THE CITIES OF AKRA...CAVALIER...AND BATHGATE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY...BH

000
FXUS63 KBIS 221733
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN RISING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED...AND
THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER VALUES.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY CHANGES WERE TO
CAPTURE CURRENT TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE 22.12Z
NAM AND LATEST RAP STILL SUGGEST A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DID NOT
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THAT AREA FOR THE UPDATE...BUT WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR TRENDS IN CASE A STRAY SHOWER TRIES TO
MOVE IN LATER.

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH THE MOST
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS OF MID
MORNING. ADJUSTED NEAR TERM SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
TRENDS...WITH THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON STILL ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. ENOUGH GRADIENT FLOW HAS DEVELOPED TO MIX OUT MORNING FOG
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. AS OF THE 11Z
OBS...THERE WAS NO FOG REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. AS A
RESULT...REMOVED MORNING FOG WORDING FROM THE GRIDS AND ZONES.

FURTHERMORE...REGIONAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. LOWERED MORNING POPS AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND COOL
WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.

CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO ADVECT WEST-SOUTHWEST FURTHER
SOUTH...STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH IS
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...AND SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH NOW THROUGH 15Z. WILL MAINTAIN
MORNING FOG NORTH WITH T/TD SPREADS NEARING ZERO AS SKIES
CLEAR...AND SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES REPORTING FOG. WILL MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE DENSE FOG...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE SO DO NOT EXPECT THE DURATION OF THE FOG TO BE VERY
LONG.

THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS TODAY...WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE
LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF DO GENERATE 100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
THINGS DRY...BUT COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO AROUND THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS/DEVILS LAKE BASIN AREA.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WEDNESDAY THANKS TO CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 35-45. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 TO 45. SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW INCREASES
LATE TONIGHT FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE WEST IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG THE FIRST IMPULSE TO EJECT FROM OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DEVELOPING
AREAWIDE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE TAP WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PERSISTENT
RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BY
TUESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

EAST / NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASED LATE THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT
GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT WILL INCREASE
AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ONLY PASSING SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 4KFT EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...CK

000
FXUS63 KFGF 221525
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1025 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE AS THE INHERITED
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO 15 UTC OBSERVED TRENDS. GIVEN
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...DID INCREASE POPS TO NEAR 100
FOR THIS MORNING ACROSS LAKES COUNTRY...DECREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE CWA EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE BY 22-00
UTC. THE RAP HAS PERFORMED WELL IN REGARDS TO THE STRATUS SHIELD
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND FOLLOWED ITS LATEST 14 UTC SOLUTION
FOR CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PICKING UP HAVE SCOURED OUT THE FOG
THAT WAS STARTING TO FORM OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...SO
REMOVED MENTION FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. RAIN WILL LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR A WHILE LONGER THIS MORNING BEFORE
DRYING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINNING TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CWA AS IT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO IA TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS
STARTED TO NOSE DOWN OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOST
OF THE PRECIP HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS STILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE NORTH HAS
CLEARED OUT COMPLETELY AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMATION AROUND CANDO AND LANGDON. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THINK THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON OBS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER AND AROUND 60 WHILE THE NORTH WILL BE A BIT
WARMER. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE FURTHER DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP THE NORTHER TIER ALONG WITH
EASTERN COUNTIES GET DOWN TO BELOW 40 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE QUIET AND A BIT WARMER AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH SOME DECENT SUNSHINE KEPT HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THURSDAY NIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS STILL START PICKING UP OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER MN/WI ALONG WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER MT CREATES A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE
WINDS WILL HELP KEEP THE WESTERN COUNTIES FROM COMPLETELY
DECOUPLING AND STAY A BIT WARMER WHILE THE EAST WILL AGAIN DROP TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LEE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS. MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COMING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRODUCING SOME PRECIP FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS POINT THE INSTABILITY SEEMS FAIRLY WEAK WITH SFC BASED CAPE
STAYING WEST OF OUR AREA AND ONLY A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED CAPE TO
WORK WITH. INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES IN OUR WEST.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
US...WITH SOME DEGREE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE PLAINS
DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EJECTING OUT OF THE BROADER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL LEAD TO
BOUTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE LOW
TO MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INDIVIDUAL
WAVES. WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES IS LOW...SO CONTINUED TO CARRY
SOME POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MANY DRY HOURS ARE
EXPECTED.

THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A TREND TO A MORE PREDOMINANT ACTIVE
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE GFS/ECMWF 925 MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 20C ON TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPS RISING
FROM MAINLY THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY OR
TUESDAY...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE EDGE OF THE MVFR STRATUS FIELD WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT RAIN WAS
JUST OVER THE KBJI AND KFAR TERMINALS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY 16-17 UTC. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
KDVL...KGFK AND KTVF FOR THE 12 UTC TAFS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO AND EASTERN MANITOBA PUSHING
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER....THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DISSOLVE THROUGH
THE DAY BEFORE REACHING NORTH DAKOTA. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
20-25 KTS WILL BE COMMON AT ALL TAF SITES LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WANE FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING RIVER FORECASTING TO BE MORE RUNOFF AS OPPOSED TO QPF
BASED.  RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WALHALLA AND NECHE
ALONG THE PEMBINA RIVER WITH WALHALLA HAVING CRESTED EARLIER.

BIGGEST FORECAST CHANGE IS ALONG PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON WHERE THE
COPIOUS RAINFALL HAS TRIGGERED RAPID STAGE RISES TOWARD MAJOR AND
ULTIMATELY NEAR RECORD FLOOD LEVELS.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE MAINSTEM RED
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES TO THE RED.
THESE POINTS ARE ALL EXPECTED TO ACHIEVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE SAVE FOR
OSLO WHERE MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.

AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR PEMBINA...EASTERN
CAVALIER...AND WALSH COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THEN AREAL
FLOODING SHOULD BECOME LESS OF A CONCERN WITH A DEARTH OF
PRECIPITATION AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME DRYING WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF PEMBINA COUNTY
AS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS CAUSED FLOOD WATERS TO
APPROACH THE TOP OF THE SPILLWAY AT THE RENWICK DAM. WATER
REMAINS VERY HIGH AND IS BEING HELD BACK BY A CONSTRUCTED EARTHEN
LEVEE ON TOP OF THE DAM STRUCTURE. OFFICIALS CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE DAM AND THE NEW CLAY LEVEE FOR ANY EROSION. THERE ARE SEVERAL
OLD RETENTION DAMS TO THE WEST OF THE RENWICK DAM...AND WITH THE
LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER IN THE AREA THESE DAMS COULD FAIL. IF ONE OF
THESE OLDER DAMS TO THE WEST DID FAIL...THE TEMPORARY LEVEE ON TOP
OF THE RENWICK DAM WOULD NO LONGER BE ABLE TO HOLD BACK
WATER...AND FLOODING WOULD BE IMMINENT FOR THE CITIES OF
AKRA...CAVALIER...AND BATHGATE. THE PEMBINA COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT ANTICIPATES A POSSIBLE BREACH WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS...AND HAVE ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR THE AREA
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE RENWICK DAM...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
CAVALIER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...AYD
HYDROLOGY...WJB/TG/JH

000
FXUS63 KBIS 221512
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1012 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE 22.12Z
NAM AND LATEST RAP STILL SUGGEST A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DID NOT
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THAT AREA FOR THE UPDATE...BUT WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR TRENDS IN CASE A STRAY SHOWER TRIES TO
MOVE IN LATER.

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH THE MOST
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS OF MID
MORNING. ADJUSTED NEAR TERM SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
TRENDS...WITH THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON STILL ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. ENOUGH GRADIENT FLOW HAS DEVELOPED TO MIX OUT MORNING FOG
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. AS OF THE 11Z
OBS...THERE WAS NO FOG REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. AS A
RESULT...REMOVED MORNING FOG WORDING FROM THE GRIDS AND ZONES.

FURTHERMORE...REGIONAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. LOWERED MORNING POPS AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND COOL
WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.

CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO ADVECT WEST-SOUTHWEST FURTHER
SOUTH...STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH IS
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...AND SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH NOW THROUGH 15Z. WILL MAINTAIN
MORNING FOG NORTH WITH T/TD SPREADS NEARING ZERO AS SKIES
CLEAR...AND SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES REPORTING FOG. WILL MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE DENSE FOG...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE SO DO NOT EXPECT THE DURATION OF THE FOG TO BE VERY
LONG.

THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS TODAY...WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE
LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF DO GENERATE 100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
THINGS DRY...BUT COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO AROUND THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS/DEVILS LAKE BASIN AREA.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WEDNESDAY THANKS TO CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 35-45. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 TO 45. SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW INCREASES
LATE TONIGHT FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE WEST IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG THE FIRST IMPULSE TO EJECT FROM OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DEVELOPING
AREAWIDE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE TAP WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PERSISTENT
RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BY
TUESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

VFR CIGS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE AT KMOT-KISN THROUGH 14Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...NH

000
FXUS63 KFGF 221148
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
648 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PICKING UP HAVE SCOURED OUT THE FOG
THAT WAS STARTING TO FORM OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...SO
REMOVED MENTION FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. RAIN WILL LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR A WHILE LONGER THIS MORNING BEFORE
DRYING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINNING TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CWA AS IT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO IA TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS
STARTED TO NOSE DOWN OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOST
OF THE PRECIP HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS STILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE NORTH HAS
CLEARED OUT COMPLETELY AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMATION AROUND CANDO AND LANGDON. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THINK THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON OBS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER AND AROUND 60 WHILE THE NORTH WILL BE A BIT
WARMER. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE FURTHER DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP THE NORTHER TIER ALONG WITH
EASTERN COUNTIES GET DOWN TO BELOW 40 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE QUIET AND A BIT WARMER AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH SOME DECENT SUNSHINE KEPT HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THURSDAY NIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS STILL START PICKING UP OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER MN/WI ALONG WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER MT CREATES A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE
WINDS WILL HELP KEEP THE WESTERN COUNTIES FROM COMPLETELY
DECOUPLING AND STAY A BIT WARMER WHILE THE EAST WILL AGAIN DROP TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LEE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS. MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COMING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRODUCING SOME PRECIP FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS POINT THE INSTABILITY SEEMS FAIRLY WEAK WITH SFC BASED CAPE
STAYING WEST OF OUR AREA AND ONLY A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED CAPE TO
WORK WITH. INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES IN OUR WEST.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
US...WITH SOME DEGREE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE PLAINS
DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EJECTING OUT OF THE BROADER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL LEAD TO
BOUTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE LOW
TO MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INDIVIDUAL
WAVES. WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES IS LOW...SO CONTINUED TO CARRY
SOME POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MANY DRY HOURS ARE
EXPECTED.

THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A TREND TO A MORE PREDOMINANT ACTIVE
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE GFS/ECMWF 925 MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 20C ON TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPS RISING
FROM MAINLY THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY OR
TUESDAY...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

KBJI HAS HAD SOME LINGERING VERY LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR
CONDITIONS...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR
CEILINGS AT KFAR WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT BY LATE MORNING. SOME CIRRUS
BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
AROUND 16Z. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS AND THEN DECREASE AGAIN AFTER 00Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WANE FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING RIVER FORECASTING TO BE MORE RUNOFF AS OPPOSED TO QPF
BASED.  RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WALHALLA AND NECHE
ALONG THE PEMBINA RIVER WITH WALHALLA HAVING CRESTED EARLIER.

BIGGEST FORECAST CHANGE IS ALONG PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON WHERE THE
COPIOUS RAINFALL HAS TRIGGERED RAPID STAGE RISES TOWARD MAJOR AND
ULTIMATELY NEAR RECORD FLOOD LEVELS.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE MAINSTEM RED
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES TO THE RED.
THESE POINTS ARE ALL EXPECTED TO ACHIEVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE SAVE FOR
OSLO WHERE MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.

AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR PEMBINA...EASTERN
CAVALIER...AND WALSH COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THEN AREAL
FLOODING SHOULD BECOME LESS OF A CONCERN WITH A DEARTH OF
PRECIPITATION AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME DRYING WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF PEMBINA COUNTY
AS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS CAUSED FLOOD WATERS TO
APPROACH THE TOP OF THE SPILLWAY AT THE RENWICK DAM. WATER
REMAINS VERY HIGH AND IS BEING HELD BACK BY A CONSTRUCTED EARTHEN
LEVEE ON TOP OF THE DAM STRUCTURE. OFFICIALS CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE DAM AND THE NEW CLAY LEVEE FOR ANY EROSION. THERE ARE SEVERAL
OLD RETENTION DAMS TO THE WEST OF THE RENWICK DAM...AND WITH THE
LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER IN THE AREA THESE DAMS COULD FAIL. IF ONE OF
THESE OLDER DAMS TO THE WEST DID FAIL...THE TEMPORARY LEVEE ON TOP
OF THE RENWICK DAM WOULD NO LONGER BE ABLE TO HOLD BACK
WATER...AND FLOODING WOULD BE IMMINENT FOR THE CITIES OF
AKRA...CAVALIER...AND BATHGATE. THE PEMBINA COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT ANTICIPATES A POSSIBLE BREACH WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS...AND HAVE ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR THE AREA
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE RENWICK DAM...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
CAVALIER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR
HYDROLOGY...WJB/TG/JH

000
FXUS63 KBIS 221141
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. ENOUGH GRADIENT FLOW HAS DEVELOPED TO MIX OUT MORNING FOG
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. AS OF THE 11Z
OBS...THERE WAS NO FOG REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. AS A
RESULT...REMOVED MORNING FOG WORDING FROM THE GRIDS AND ZONES.

FURTHERMORE...REGIONAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. LOWERED MORNING POPS AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND COOL
WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.

CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO ADVECT WEST-SOUTHWEST FURTHER
SOUTH...STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH IS
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...AND SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH NOW THROUGH 15Z. WILL MAINTAIN
MORNING FOG NORTH WITH T/TD SPREADS NEARING ZERO AS SKIES
CLEAR...AND SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES REPORTING FOG. WILL MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE DENSE FOG...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE SO DO NOT EXPECT THE DURATION OF THE FOG TO BE VERY
LONG.

THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS TODAY...WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE
LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF DO GENERATE 100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
THINGS DRY...BUT COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO AROUND THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS/DEVILS LAKE BASIN AREA.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WEDNESDAY THANKS TO CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 35-45. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 TO 45. SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW INCREASES
LATE TONIGHT FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE WEST IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG THE FIRST IMPULSE TO EJECT FROM OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DEVELOPING
AREAWIDE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE TAP WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PERSISTENT
RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BY
TUESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

VFR CIGS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE AT KMOT-KISN THROUGH 14Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...NH

000
FXUS63 KBIS 220843
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
343 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND COOL
WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.

CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO ADVECT WEST-SOUTHWEST FURTHER
SOUTH...STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH IS
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...AND SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH NOW THROUGH 15Z. WILL MAINTAIN
MORNING FOG NORTH WITH T/TD SPREADS NEARING ZERO AS SKIES
CLEAR...AND SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES REPORTING FOG. WILL MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE DENSE FOG...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE SO DO NOT EXPECT THE DURATION OF THE FOG TO BE VERY
LONG.

THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS TODAY...WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE
LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF DO GENERATE 100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
THINGS DRY...BUT COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO AROUND THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS/DEVILS LAKE BASIN AREA.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WEDNESDAY THANKS TO CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 35-45. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 TO 45. SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW INCREASES
LATE TONIGHT FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE WEST IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG THE FIRST IMPULSE TO EJECT FROM OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DEVELOPING
AREAWIDE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE TAP WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PERSISTENT
RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BY
TUESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS AT KDIK-KBIS-KJMS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT KMOT-KISN. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AT KMOT AND POSSIBLY KISN
WHERE VISIBILITIES COULD FALL TO IFR OR BELOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD
EARLY THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09-14Z. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE SKC BY
15-18Z TODAY AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...NH

000
FXUS63 KFGF 220830
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
330 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINNING TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CWA AS IT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO IA TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS
STARTED TO NOSE DOWN OUT OF CANAD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOST
OF THE PRECIP HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS STILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE NORTH HAS
CLEARED OUT COMPLETELY AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMATION AROUND CANDO AND LANGDON. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THINK THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON OBS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER AND AROUND 60 WHILE THE NORTH WILL BE A BIT
WARMER. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE FURTHER DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP THE NORTHER TIER ALONG WITH
EASTERN COUNTIES GET DOWN TO BELOW 40 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE QUIET AND A BIT WARMER AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH SOME DECENT SUNSHINE KEPT HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THURSDAY NIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS STILL START PICKING UP OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER MN/WI ALONG WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER MT CREATES A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE
WINDS WILL HELP KEEP THE WESTERN COUNTIES FROM COMPLETELY
DECOUPLING AND STAY A BIT WARMER WHILE THE EAST WILL AGAIN DROP TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LEE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS. MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COMING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRODUCING SOME PRECIP FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS POINT THE INSTABILITY SEEMS FAIRLY WEAK WITH SFC BASED CAPE
STAYING WEST OF OUR AREA AND ONLY A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED CAPE TO
WORK WITH. INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES IN OUR WEST.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
US...WITH SOME DEGREE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE PLAINS
DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EJECTING OUT OF THE BROADER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL LEAD TO
BOUTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE LOW
TO MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INDIVIDUAL
WAVES. WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES IS LOW...SO CONTINUED TO CARRY
SOME POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MANY DRY HOURS ARE
EXPECTED.

THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A TREND TO A MORE PREDOMINANT ACTIVE
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE GFS/ECMWF 925 MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 20C ON TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPS RISING
FROM MAINLY THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY OR
TUESDAY...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTH...WITH VFR
CIGS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND EVENTUALLY
CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT GUSTY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WANE FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING RIVER FORECASTING TO BE MORE RUNOFF AS OPPOSED TO QPF
BASED.  RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WALHALLA AND NECHE
ALONG THE PEMBINA RIVER WITH WALHALLA HAVING CRESTED EARLIER.

BIGGEST FORECAST CHANGE IS ALONG PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON WHERE THE
COPIOUS RAINFALL HAS TRIGGERED RAPID STAGE RISES TOWARD MAJOR AND
ULTIMATELY NEAR RECORD FLOOD LEVELS.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE MAINSTEM RED
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES TO THE RED.
THESE POINTS ARE ALL EXPECTED TO ACHIEVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE SAVE FOR
OSLO WHERE MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.

AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR PEMBINA...EASTERN
CAVALIER...AND WALSH COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THEN AREAL
FLOODING SHOULD BECOME LESS OF A CONCERN WITH A DEARTH OF
PRECIPITATION AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME DRYING WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF PEMBINA COUNTY
AS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS CAUSED FLOOD WATERS TO
APPROACH THE TOP OF THE SPILLWAY AT THE RENWICK DAM. WATER
REMAINS VERY HIGH AND IS BEING HELD BACK BY A CONSTRUCTED EARTHEN
LEVEE ON TOP OF THE DAM STRUCTURE. OFFICIALS CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE DAM AND THE NEW CLAY LEVEE FOR ANY EROSION. THERE ARE SEVERAL
OLD RETENTION DAMS TO THE WEST OF THE RENWICK DAM...AND WITH THE
LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER IN THE AREA THESE DAMS COULD FAIL. IF ONE OF
THESE OLDER DAMS TO THE WEST DID FAIL...THE TEMPORARY LEVEE ON TOP
OF THE RENWICK DAM WOULD NO LONGER BE ABLE TO HOLD BACK
WATER...AND FLOODING WOULD BE IMMINENT FOR THE CITIES OF
AKRA...CAVALIER...AND BATHGATE. THE PEMBINA COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT ANTICIPATES A POSSIBLE BREACH WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS...AND HAVE ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR THE AREA
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE RENWICK DAM...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
CAVALIER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...WJB/TG/JH

000
FXUS63 KBIS 220612
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
112 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS EARLY MORNING FORECAST
UPDATE. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST CENTRAL AND SOUTH...WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH NOW
THROUGH 15Z...AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL MAINTAIN FOG IN THE FORECAST
NORTH WITH T/TD SPREADS NEARING ZERO AT SOME LOCATIONS WHERE SKIES
HAVE CLEARED.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 853 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH THE WEST
LIKELY GETTING SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT AS WELL AS EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO PULL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
UPPED THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH FOR THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING. SO FAR DO NOT SEE A FIRM
TREND ON CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH YET. SO HAVE SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF CLEARING UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
PROBLEMS WITH FOG FORMATION NORTH UNTIL LATE. UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTRIBUTING TO LIGHT FOG SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

AT 6 PM CDT...THE CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA
EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ARE NOW FORMING. AFTER SUNSET THE EAST NORTHEAST FLOW OUT
OF CANADA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEW POINTS WILL
FURTHER ERODE THE CLOUDS. WITH MINOT STILL REPORTED A LIGHT SHOWER
ADDED SPRINKLES FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA EXCLUDING THE NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES WHERE
CLEARING WILL DEFINITELY BE FOUND. ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF WILL
STILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. WILL THE NORTH CLEARING BY MIDNIGHT...AND ABUNDANT
SURFACE MOISTURE PRESENT...AREAS OF FOG STILL LOOK REASONABLE.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS LOOK GOOD AND DID NOT TOUCH THEM WITH THIS
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE END OF THE LONG DURATION
RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...THE RAP THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE AREA..AND FOLLOWED ITS LATEST 19 UTC
RUN FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH ADVECTS DRIER AIR
SOUTHWEST AND SCOURS OUT THE STRATUS. DID ADD A MENTION OF FOG TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WHERE SKIES FIRST CLEAR TONIGHT
AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT...ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND SATURATION IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT RAINFALL.

A QUIET WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
AREA. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...USED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC
GEM/GFS/NAM/ECMWF AND 15 UTC SREF FOR ALL FIELDS...WITH GENERALLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST...AND THE ESTABLISHED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE WEST COAST/ROCKIES...WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
PLAINS OF NORTH AMERICA. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA NOSES INTO THE DAKOTAS.

BY THURSDAY THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS THE
INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW OVER THE ROCKIES/LEE OF THE ROCKIES SETS UP
A STRONGER SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
PLAINS. SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES SETS UP A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH
DAKOTA...AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THUS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.

FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DECREASE...WITH MAINLY VFR
CIGS NOW AT KDIK-KBIS-KJMS...CLEAR SKIES AT KMOT...AND TRENDING
TOWARDS SKC AT KISN. MAY STILL SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AT THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS OF KDIK-KBIS-KJMS EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL TERMINALS WILL
BE SKC BY 15-18Z TODAY AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
06Z TAF PERIOD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE PIPESTEM CREEK NEAR PINGREE AND
THE FORECAST POINTS OF TOWNER...BANTRY AND WESTHOPE ON THE SOURIS.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE WINTERING RIVER NEAR KARLSRUHE AND THE
WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY WHICH MAY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE IN
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. HAVE HELD OFF ON A FLOOD WARNING FOR
NOW...AND WILL WATCH HOW THESE WATERWAYS RESPOND TO RUNOFF.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...AYD

000
FXUS63 KFGF 220448
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1148 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

NO UPDATES NEEDED...

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH CLEARING SKY SLOWLY SAGGING
SOUTHWARD...NOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS CLEARING LINE.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE
RENWICK DAM SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE FOCUS TODAY WAS ON THE SERIOUS FLOODING SITUATION IN
NORTHEASTERN ND. GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE VERY LAST OF THE LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE MOVING THRU AND FROM 00Z WED TO 12Z FRI DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST FOR THAT GRAFTON-WALHALLA-CAVALIER AREAS.

UPPER LOW NR SIOUX FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AND THEN EAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING FOR SLOW CLEARING NOW IN SOUTHERN
MANITOBA (PORTAGE-WINNIPEG) TO DROP INTO FAR NRN ND BY 12Z WED AND
THEN SOUTHWARD REACHING THE FAR SOUTHERN FCST AREA WED EVE. WILL
KEEP IN CHC POPS FOR PRECIP TONIGHT IN THE CNTRL-SOUTHERN FCST
AREA AND ONLY IN THE FAR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING-MIDDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR WED NIGHT. A BIT
COOLER THAN AVERAGE. COULD BE SOME FOG WED NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKY DUE TO ALL THE WATER IN THE FIELDS AND DITCHES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

NICE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE THEN CLOUDS TO
INCREASE LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM THE WEST AS THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS
FOR FRIDAY IN ERN ND AND THE VALLEY FOR SOME WARM ADV LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS.

12 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH SHOW A RIDGE ALOFT ALIGNED ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN BREAKING DOWN SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ENERGY FROM A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. MEANWHILE...A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL
THERMAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PROVIDING A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COUPLE SHORT-WAVES ROTATE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ALL
BLEND GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS WELL AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH
MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT...WILL SEE
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE MID 60S ON
SATURDAY TO THE MID 70S BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTH...WITH VFR
CIGS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND EVENTUALLY
CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT GUSTY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WANE FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING RIVER FORECASTING TO BE MORE RUNOFF AS OPPOSED TO QPF
BASED.  RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WALHALLA AND NECHE
ALONG THE PEMBINA RIVER WITH WALHALLA HAVING CRESTED EARLIER.

BIGGEST FORECAST CHANGE IS ALONG PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON WHERE THE
COPIOUS RAINFALL HAS TRIGGERED RAPID STAGE RISES TOWARD MAJOR AND
ULTIMATELY NEAR RECORD FLOOD LEVELS.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE MAINSTEM RED
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES TO THE RED.
THESE POINTS ARE ALL EXPECTED TO ACHIEVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE SAVE FOR
OSLO WHERE MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.

AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR PEMBINA...EASTERN
CAVALIER...AND WALSH COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THEN AREAL
FLOODING SHOULD BECOME LESS OF A CONCERN WITH A DEARTH OF
PRECIPITATION AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME DRYING WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF PEMBINA COUNTY
AS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS CAUSED FLOOD WATERS TO
APPROACH THE TOP OF THE SPILLWAY AT THE RENWICK DAM. WATER
REMAINS VERY HIGH AND IS BEING HELD BACK BY A CONSTRUCTED EARTHEN
LEVEE ON TOP OF THE DAM STRUCTURE. OFFICIALS CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE DAM AND THE NEW CLAY LEVEE FOR ANY EROSION. THERE ARE SEVERAL
OLD RETENTION DAMS TO THE WEST OF THE RENWICK DAM...AND WITH THE
LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER IN THE AREA THESE DAMS COULD FAIL. IF ONE OF
THESE OLDER DAMS TO THE WEST DID FAIL...THE TEMPORARY LEVEE ON TOP
OF THE RENWICK DAM WOULD NO LONGER BE ABLE TO HOLD BACK
WATER...AND FLOODING WOULD BE IMMINENT FOR THE CITIES OF
AKRA...CAVALIER...AND BATHGATE. THE PEMBINA COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT ANTICIPATES A POSSIBLE BREACH WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS...AND HAVE ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR THE AREA
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE RENWICK DAM...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
CAVALIER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/ROGERS
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...WJB/TG/JH

000
FXUS63 KFGF 220251
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
951 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH CLEARING SKY SLOWLY SAGGING
SOUTHWARD...NOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS CLEARING LINE.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE
RENWICK DAM SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE FOCUS TODAY WAS ON THE SERIOUS FLOODING SITUATION IN
NORTHEASTERN ND. GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE VERY LAST OF THE LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE MOVING THRU AND FROM 00Z WED TO 12Z FRI DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST FOR THAT GRAFTON-WALHALLA-CAVALIER AREAS.

UPPER LOW NR SIOUX FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AND THEN EAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING FOR SLOW CLEARING NOW IN SOUTHERN
MANITOBA (PORTAGE-WINNIPEG) TO DROP INTO FAR NRN ND BY 12Z WED AND
THEN SOUTHWARD REACHING THE FAR SOUTHERN FCST AREA WED EVE. WILL
KEEP IN CHC POPS FOR PRECIP TONIGHT IN THE CNTRL-SOUTHERN FCST
AREA AND ONLY IN THE FAR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING-MIDDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR WED NIGHT. A BIT
COOLER THAN AVERAGE. COULD BE SOME FOG WED NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKY DUE TO ALL THE WATER IN THE FIELDS AND DITCHES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

NICE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE THEN CLOUDS TO
INCREASE LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM THE WEST AS THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS
FOR FRIDAY IN ERN ND AND THE VALLEY FOR SOME WARM ADV LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS.

12 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH SHOW A RIDGE ALOFT ALIGNED ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN BREAKING DOWN SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ENERGY FROM A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. MEANWHILE...A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL
THERMAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PROVIDING A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COUPLE SHORT-WAVES ROTATE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ALL
BLEND GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS WELL AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH
MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT...WILL SEE
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE MID 60S ON
SATURDAY TO THE MID 70S BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTH...WITH VFR
CIGS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND EVENTUALLY
CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WANE FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING RIVER FORECASTING TO BE MORE RUNOFF AS OPPOSED TO QPF
BASED.  RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WALHALLA AND NECHE
ALONG THE PEMBINA RIVER WITH WALHALLA HAVING CRESTED EARLIER.

BIGGEST FORECAST CHANGE IS ALONG PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON WHERE THE
COPIOUS RAINFALL HAS TRIGGERED RAPID STAGE RISES TOWARD MAJOR AND
ULTIMATELY NEAR RECORD FLOOD LEVELS.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE MAINSTEM RED
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES TO THE RED.
THESE POINTS ARE ALL EXPECTED TO ACHIEVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE SAVE FOR
OSLO WHERE MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.

AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR PEMBINA...EASTERN
CAVALIER...AND WALSH COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THEN AREAL
FLOODING SHOULD BECOME LESS OF A CONCERN WITH A DEARTH OF
PRECIPITATION AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME DRYING WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF PEMBINA COUNTY
AS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS CAUSED FLOOD WATERS TO
APPROACH THE TOP OF THE SPILLWAY AT THE RENWICK DAM. WATER
REMAINS VERY HIGH AND IS BEING HELD BACK BY A CONSTRUCTED EARTHEN
LEVEE ON TOP OF THE DAM STRUCTURE. OFFICIALS CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE DAM AND THE NEW CLAY LEVEE FOR ANY EROSION. THERE ARE SEVERAL
OLD RETENTION DAMS TO THE WEST OF THE RENWICK DAM...AND WITH THE
LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER IN THE AREA THESE DAMS COULD FAIL. IF ONE OF
THESE OLDER DAMS TO THE WEST DID FAIL...THE TEMPORARY LEVEE ON TOP
OF THE RENWICK DAM WOULD NO LONGER BE ABLE TO HOLD BACK
WATER...AND FLOODING WOULD BE IMMINENT FOR THE CITIES OF
AKRA...CAVALIER...AND BATHGATE. THE PEMBINA COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT ANTICIPATES A POSSIBLE BREACH WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS...AND HAVE ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR THE AREA
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE RENWICK DAM...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
CAVALIER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/ROGERS
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...WJB/TG

000
FXUS63 KBIS 220207
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
907 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH THE WEST
LIKELY GETTING SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT AS WELL AS EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO PULL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
UPPED THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH FOR THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING. SO FAR DO NOT SEE A FIRM
TREND ON CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH YET. SO HAVE SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF CLEARING UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
PROBLEMS WITH FOG FORMATION NORTH UNTIL LATE. UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTRIBUTING TO LIGHT FOG SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

AT 6 PM CDT...THE CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA
EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ARE NOW FORMING. AFTER SUNSET THE EAST NORTHEAST FLOW OUT
OF CANADA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEW POINTS WILL
FURTHER ERODE THE CLOUDS. WITH MINOT STILL REPORTED A LIGHT SHOWER
ADDED SPRINKLES FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA EXCLUDING THE NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES WHERE
CLEARING WILL DEFINITELY BE FOUND. ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF WILL
STILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. WILL THE NORTH CLEARING BY MIDNIGHT...AND ABUNDANT
SURFACE MOISTURE PRESENT...AREAS OF FOG STILL LOOK REASONABLE.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS LOOK GOOD AND DID NOT TOUCH THEM WITH THIS
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE END OF THE LONG DURATION
RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...THE RAP THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE AREA..AND FOLLOWED ITS LATEST 19 UTC
RUN FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH ADVECTS DRIER AIR
SOUTHWEST AND SCOURS OUT THE STRATUS. DID ADD A MENTION OF FOG TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WHERE SKIES FIRST CLEAR TONIGHT
AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT...ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND SATURATION IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT RAINFALL.

A QUIET WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
AREA. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...USED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC
GEM/GFS/NAM/ECMWF AND 15 UTC SREF FOR ALL FIELDS...WITH GENERALLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST...AND THE ESTABLISHED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE WEST COAST/ROCKIES...WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
PLAINS OF NORTH AMERICA. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA NOSES INTO THE DAKOTAS.

BY THURSDAY THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS THE
INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW OVER THE ROCKIES/LEE OF THE ROCKIES SETS UP
A STRONGER SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
PLAINS. SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES SETS UP A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH
DAKOTA...AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THUS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.

FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 853 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

CIRCULATION AROUND A LOW PRESSURE AREA IN MINNESOTA CAUSING LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/UPSLOPE COMPONENTS MANIFESTING ITSELF AS
LOWER CEILINGS INTO THE LOW MVFR TO IFR CATEGORY FROM KJMS-KBIS-
KDIK...WITH KDIK LIKELY INTO THE LOW IFR THROUGH 10Z. AFTER 10Z
SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO MVFR THEN VFR AFTER 12Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE PIPESTEM CREEK NEAR PINGREE AND
THE FORECAST POINTS OF TOWNER...BANTRY AND WESTHOPE ON THE SOURIS.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE WINTERING RIVER NEAR KARLSRUHE AND THE
WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY WHICH MAY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE IN
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. HAVE HELD OFF ON A FLOOD WARNING FOR
NOW...AND WILL WATCH HOW THESE WATERWAYS RESPOND TO RUNOFF.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD

000
FXUS63 KBIS 220003
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
703 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

AT 6 PM CDT...THE CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA
EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ARE NOW FORMING. AFTER SUNSET THE EAST NORTHEAST FLOW OUT
OF CANADA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEW POINTS WILL
FURTHER ERODE THE CLOUDS. WITH MINOT STILL REPORTED A LIGHT SHOWER
ADDED SPRINKLES FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA EXCLUDING THE NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES WHERE
CLEARING WILL DEFINITELY BE FOUND. ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF WILL
STILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. WILL THE NORTH CLEARING BY MIDNIGHT...AND ABUNDANT
SURFACE MOISTURE PRESENT...AREAS OF FOG STILL LOOK REASONABLE.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS LOOK GOOD AND DID NOT TOUCH THEM WITH THIS
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE END OF THE LONG DURATION
RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...THE RAP THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE AREA..AND FOLLOWED ITS LATEST 19 UTC
RUN FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH ADVECTS DRIER AIR
SOUTHWEST AND SCOURS OUT THE STRATUS. DID ADD A MENTION OF FOG TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WHERE SKIES FIRST CLEAR TONIGHT
AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT...ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND SATURATION IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT RAINFALL.

A QUIET WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
AREA. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...USED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC
GEM/GFS/NAM/ECMWF AND 15 UTC SREF FOR ALL FIELDS...WITH GENERALLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST...AND THE ESTABLISHED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE WEST COAST/ROCKIES...WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
PLAINS OF NORTH AMERICA. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA NOSES INTO THE DAKOTAS.

BY THURSDAY THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS THE
INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW OVER THE ROCKIES/LEE OF THE ROCKIES SETS UP
A STRONGER SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
PLAINS. SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES SETS UP A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH
DAKOTA...AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THUS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.

FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

AT 6 PM CDT...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
CONTINUED TO PULL MOIST AIR INTO NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE EAST. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM KJMS-KBIS-KDIK...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY EVENING AT KDIK. KISN-KMOT
WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. AFTER MIDNIGHT...PATCHY
FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KMOT WHERE ABUNDANT RAINFALL
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO FOG FORMATION. VFR ALL TAF SITES AFTER 14Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE PIPESTEM CREEK NEAR PINGREE AND
THE FORECAST POINTS OF TOWNER...BANTRY AND WESTHOPE ON THE SOURIS.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE WINTERING RIVER NEAR KARLSRUHE AND THE
WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY WHICH MAY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE IN
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. HAVE HELD OFF ON A FLOOD WARNING FOR
NOW...AND WILL WATCH HOW THESE WATERWAYS RESPOND TO RUNOFF.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD

000
FXUS63 KFGF 212350
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
650 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE WEATHER IS ON TRACK WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND NO CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CLEARING OF THE
CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH...AND WILL LOOK AT THIS IN MORE DETAIL WITH
THE NEXT UPDATE.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE
RENWICK DAM SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE FOCUS TODAY WAS ON THE SERIOUS FLOODING SITUATION IN
NORTHEASTERN ND. GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE VERY LAST OF THE LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE MOVING THRU AND FROM 00Z WED TO 12Z FRI DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST FOR THAT GRAFTON-WALHALLA-CAVALIER AREAS.

UPPER LOW NR SIOUX FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AND THEN EAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING FOR SLOW CLEARING NOW IN SOUTHERN
MANITOBA (PORTAGE-WINNIPEG) TO DROP INTO FAR NRN ND BY 12Z WED AND
THEN SOUTHWARD REACHING THE FAR SOUTHERN FCST AREA WED EVE. WILL
KEEP IN CHC POPS FOR PRECIP TONIGHT IN THE CNTRL-SOUTHERN FCST
AREA AND ONLY IN THE FAR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING-MIDDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR WED NIGHT. A BIT
COOLER THAN AVERAGE. COULD BE SOME FOG WED NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKY DUE TO ALL THE WATER IN THE FIELDS AND DITCHES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

NICE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE THEN CLOUDS TO
INCREASE LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM THE WEST AS THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS
FOR FRIDAY IN ERN ND AND THE VALLEY FOR SOME WARM ADV LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS.

12 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH SHOW A RIDGE ALOFT ALIGNED ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN BREAKING DOWN SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ENERGY FROM A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. MEANWHILE...A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL
THERMAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PROVIDING A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COUPLE SHORT-WAVES ROTATE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ALL
BLEND GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS WELL AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH
MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT...WILL SEE
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE MID 60S ON
SATURDAY TO THE MID 70S BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTH...WITH VFR
CIGS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND EVENTUALLY
CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WANE FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING RIVER FORECASTING TO BE MORE RUNOFF AS OPPOSED TO QPF
BASED.  RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WALHALLA AND NECHE
ALONG THE PEMBINA RIVER WITH WALHALLA HAVING CRESTED EARLIER.

BIGGEST FORECAST CHANGE IS ALONG PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON WHERE THE
COPIOUS RAINFALL HAS TRIGGERED RAPID STAGE RISES TOWARD MAJOR AND
ULTIMATELY NEAR RECORD FLOOD LEVELS.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE MAINSTEM RED
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES TO THE RED.
THESE POINTS ARE ALL EXPECTED TO ACHIEVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE SAVE FOR
OSLO WHERE MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.

AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR PEMBINA...EASTERN
CAVALIER...AND WALSH COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THEN AREAL
FLOODING SHOULD BECOME LESS OF A CONCERN WITH A DEARTH OF
PRECIPITATION AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME DRYING WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF PEMBINA COUNTY
AS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS CAUSED FLOOD WATERS TO
APPROACH THE TOP OF THE SPILLWAY AT THE RENWICK DAM. WATER
REMAINS VERY HIGH AND IS BEING HELD BACK BY A CONSTRUCTED EARTHEN
LEVEE ON TOP OF THE DAM STRUCTURE. OFFICIALS CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE DAM AND THE NEW CLAY LEVEE FOR ANY EROSION. THERE ARE SEVERAL
OLD DAMS TO THE WEST OF THE RENWICK DAM...AND WITH THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF WATER IN THE AREA THESE DAMS COULD FAIL. IF ONE OF THESE
OLDER DAMS TO THE WEST DID FAIL...THE TEMPORARY LEVEE ON TOP OF
THE RENWICK DAM WOULD NO LONGER BE ABLE TO HOLD BACK WATER...AND
FLOODING WOULD BE IMMINENT FOR THE CITIES OF AKRA...CAVALIER...AND
BATHGATE. THE PEMBINA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ANTICIPATES A
POSSIBLE BREACH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND HAVE ORDERED A
MANDATORY EVACUATION BEGINNING AT 700PM FOR THE AREA IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE RENWICK DAM...INCLUDING THE CITY OF CAVALIER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/ROGERS
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...WJB/TG

000
FXUS63 KFGF 212039
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
339 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE FOCUS TODAY WAS ON THE SERIOUS FLOODING SITUATION IN
NORTHEASTERN ND. GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE VERY LAST OF THE LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE MOVING THRU AND FROM 00Z WED TO 12Z FRI DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST FOR THAT GRAFTON-WALHALLA-CAVALIER AREAS.

UPPER LOW NR SIOUX FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AND THEN EAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING FOR SLOW CLEARING NOW IN SOUTHERN
MANITOBA (PORTAGE-WINNIPEG) TO DROP INTO FAR NRN ND BY 12Z WED AND
THEN SOUTHWARD REACHING THE FAR SOUTHERN FCST AREA WED EVE. WILL
KEEP IN CHC POPS FOR PRECIP TONIGHT IN THE CNTRL-SOUTHERN FCST
AREA AND ONLY IN THE FAR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING-MIDDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR WED NIGHT. A BIT
COOLER THAN AVERAGE. COULD BE SOME FOG WED NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKY DUE TO ALL THE WATER IN THE FIELDS AND DITCHES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

NICE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE THEN CLOUDS TO
INCREASE LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM THE WEST AS THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS
FOR FRIDAY IN ERN ND AND THE VALLEY FOR SOME WARM ADV LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS.

12 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH SHOW A RIDGE ALOFT ALIGNED ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN BREAKING DOWN SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ENERGY FROM A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. MEANWHILE...A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL
THERMAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PROVIDING A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COUPLE SHORT-WAVES ROTATE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ALL
BLEND GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS WELL AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH
MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT...WILL SEE
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE MID 60S ON
SATURDAY TO THE MID 70S BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

IFR/LOW MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT DO EXPECT A VERY SLOW CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
FOR NORTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 02 UTC. PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
BECOME SPOTTY...BUT MAY BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT KBJI/KFAR BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WIND WILL PERSIST...GUSTING AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON TO 25 KTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WANE FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING RIVER FORECASTING TO BE MORE RUNOFF AS OPPOSED TO QPF
BASED.  RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WALHALLA AND NECHE
ALONG THE PEMBINA RIVER WITH WALHALLA HAVING CRESTED EARLIER.

BIGGEST FORECAST CHANGE IS ALONG PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON WHERE THE
COPIOUS RAINFALL HAS TRIGGERED RAPID STAGE RISES TOWARD MAJOR AND
ULTIMATELY NEAR RECORD FLOOD LEVELS.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE MAINSTEM RED
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES TO THE RED.
THESE POINTS ARE ALL EXPECTED TO ACHIEVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE SAVE FOR
OSLO WHERE MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.

AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR PEMBINA...EASTERN
CAVALIER...AND WALSH COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THEN AREAL
FLOODING SHOULD BECOME LESS OF A CONCERN WITH A DEARTH OF
PRECIPITATION AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME DRYING WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF PEMBINA COUNTY
AS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS CAUSED FLOODWATERS TO
APPROACH THE TOP OF THE SPILLWAY AT THE RENWICK DAM. AT PRESS
TIME...PLACEMENT OF AN EMERGENCY DAM SEEMS TO HAVE THE SITUATION
UNDER CONTROL BUT CONTINUED MONITORING IS REQUIRED.



&&


.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/ROGERS
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY...WJB

000
FXUS63 KBIS 212026
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
326 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE END OF THE LONG DURATION
RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...THE RAP THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE AREA..AND FOLLOWED ITS LATEST 19 UTC
RUN FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH ADVECTS DRIER AIR
SOUTHWEST AND SCOURS OUT THE STRATUS. DID ADD A MENTION OF FOG TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WHERE SKIES FIRST CLEAR TONIGHT
AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT...ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND SATURATION IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT RAINFALL.

A QUIET WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
AREA. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...USED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC
GEM/GFS/NAM/ECMWF AND 15 UTC SREF FOR ALL FIELDS...WITH GENERALLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST...AND THE ESTABLISHED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE WEST COAST/ROCKIES...WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
PLAINS OF NORTH AMERICA. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA NOSES INTO THE DAKOTAS.

BY THURSDAY THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS THE
INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW OVER THE ROCKIES/LEE OF THE ROCKIES SETS UP
A STRONGER SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
PLAINS. SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES SETS UP A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH
DAKOTA...AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THUS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.

FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MVFR STRATUS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
KMOT...KBIS...KJMS AND KDIK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A
CLEARING TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
SUNSET...THE STRATUS DECK MAY LOWER TO IFR BEFORE CLEARING. KISN
SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THIS DECK FOR THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT AT KMOT
AS SKIES CLEAR WITH RECENT RAINFALL...HOWEVER...IMPACTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND WILL CODE AS VCFG FOR NOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE PIPESTEM CREEK NEAR PINGREE AND
THE FORECAST POINTS OF TOWNER...BANTRY AND WESTHOPE ON THE SOURIS.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE WINTERING RIVER NEAR KARLSRUHE AND THE
WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY WHICH MAY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE IN
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. HAVE HELD OFF ON A FLOOD WARNING FOR
NOW...AND WILL WATCH HOW THESE WATERWAYS RESPOND TO RUNOFF.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD
HYDROLOGY...AYD

000
FXUS63 KFGF 211833
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
133 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

PRECIP WINDING DOWN....THANKFULLY JUST IN TIME AS AREAS FROM WEST
OF GRAFTON UP TO WALHALLA CANNOT STAND ANOTHER DROP. HIGHEST
REPORT WAS 9.5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS STORM 2E6N MILTON ND.

WILL CONTINUE TO TWEEK POPS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

WV LOOP HAS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO ROTATE OVER SD...AND THE
CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH
AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA WILL
BEGIN TO RELAX BY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH 15Z AND THINK THAT WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW CRITERIA BY
LATE MORNING. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH CWA ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW FROM EAST TO WEST. COVERAGE IS A BIT
MORE SCATTERED BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL AGAIN GET WET AT SOME POINT
TODAY. CONTINUED THE TREND OF HIGH POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES TODAY WITH DIMINISHING PROBABILITIES IN THE NORTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM CANADA.
CONTINUED TO HAVE DECREASING POPS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW...WITH ONLY A 30 PERCENT CHANCE HANGING ON IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE EVEN SOME
CLEARING IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO KEPT
HIGHER TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THAT AREA WITH LOWER
READINGS FURTHER SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HANG AROUND
LONGER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS. CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND 40
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME GOOD RECOVERY ON
THURSDAY AS TEMPS WARM BACK UP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND KEEP
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GETS GOING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...THE SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD ON FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL OR SOUTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND WITH
PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST AND A SERIES OF IMPULSES
EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THESE IMPULSES
IS LOW AT THIS RANGE. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013


IFR/LOW MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT DO EXPECT A VERY SLOW CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
FOR NORTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 02 UTC. PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
BECOME SPOTTY...BUT MAY BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT KBJI/KFAR BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WIND WILL PERSIST...GUSTING AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON TO 25 KTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE RED RIVER BASIN AND
ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WALHALLA AND NECHE ALONG THE
PEMBINA RIVER. WALHALLA APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF SOMEWHAT IN
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
NECHE CONTINUES TO RISE QUITE RAPIDLY TOWARDS MAJOR FLOOD STAGE.
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOREST RIVER AT
MINTO AND THE PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON...WHERE STAGES MAY REACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE.

OVER THE LAST 18 HOURS...ONE INCH TO ONE AND ONE QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN FELL OVER BUFFALO RIVER BASIN AND THE RED RIVER BASIN IN THE
VICINITY OF WAHPETON. THIS HAS RESULTED IN NEW FORECASTS PUSHING THE
CREST INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH RAIN
WILL FALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WILL ISSUE FLOOD WATCHES FOR
THESE THREE POINTS.

AREAL FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WALSH...PEMBINA...AND PARTS OF CAVALIER COUNTIES...WHERE SOME OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE OCCURRED. INCREASINGLY SATURATED GROUND
MAY LEAD TO SOME OVERLAND FLOOD CONCERNS WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TODAY ACROSS OTHER AREAS OF THE REGION.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF PEMBINA COUNTY
AS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS CAUSED FLOODWATERS TO
APPROACH THE TOP OF THE SPILLWAY AT THE RENWICK DAM. RIVER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO RISE ALONG THE TONGUE RIVER AT AKRA. SEE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH PRODUCT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI

000
FXUS63 KBIS 211815
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
115 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO DECREASE SKY
COVER ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...FOLLOWING THE
17 UTC RAP FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH HAS HANDLED THE
CLOUD SHIELD WELL SO FAR TODAY. ALSO...REMOVED THE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY FOR US HIGHWAY 2 AND NORTH...AND REDUCED
POPS TO CHANCE FOR MOST OTHER LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS THE
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PROPAGATES INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 00 UTC
GEM/ECMWF...09 UTC SREF...06 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC NAM UTILIZED FOR
TEMPERATURES AND POPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

GRADIENT FLOW HAS DECREASED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A SURFACE
LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MODIFIED HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
RAIN AND WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE REGION.

CURRENTLY...LARGE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...CENTERED OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL EMBEDDED
VORTICITY MAXIMUMS/CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ROTATING AROUND/WITHIN
THE LARGE LOW. RAIN IS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH MOST OBS REPORTING LIGHT
RAIN RATHER THAN MODERATE OR HEAVY. PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY
DIMINISHING OVER MY EAST BUT AM STILL SEEING GUSTY WINDS AT ROLLA
AND RUGBY TO OVER 40 MPH. THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY AS
IS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND NORTH IF I94 WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

100KT JET STREAK SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW FROM EASTERN KANSAS
NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...ALONG WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS TODAY...WILL ALL HELP TO NUDGE THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. SEVERAL MORE EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW WILL STILL BRING LIGHT RAINFALL TO MOST LOCATIONS
THIS MORNING...BUT WILL SEE CHANCES DECREASE NORTH LATER
TODAY...WITH THIS TREND (DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH) CONTINUING TONIGHT. WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL NOW EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM
SYSTEM...WE OPTED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH WITH FURTHER
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CRESTS ACROSS THE
REGION. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
PERIODIC ENERGY TRAVERSING THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERATE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY...CONTINUED TO BROAD
BRUSH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TRY AND TARGET WHICH DAY WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...IF ANY SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOPS AT ALL. AS A RESULT...SIDED WITH THE SPC AND THINK
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MVFR STRATUS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
KMOT...KBIS...KJMS AND KDIK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A
CLEARING TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. KISN SHOULD REMAIN
OUTSIDE OF THIS DECK FOR THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT AT KMOT AS SKIES CLEAR
WITH RECENT RAINFALL...HOWEVER...IMPACTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME AND WILL CODE AS VCFG FOR NOW.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD

000
FXUS63 KBIS 211452
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
952 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS THE
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PROPAGATES INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 00 UTC
GEM/ECMWF...09 UTC SREF...06 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC NAM UTILIZED FOR
TEMPERATURES AND POPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

GRADIENT FLOW HAS DECREASED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A SURFACE
LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MODIFIED HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
RAIN AND WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE REGION.

CURRENTLY...LARGE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...CENTERED OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL EMBEDDED
VORTICITY MAXIMUMS/CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ROTATING AROUND/WITHIN
THE LARGE LOW. RAIN IS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH MOST OBS REPORTING LIGHT
RAIN RATHER THAN MODERATE OR HEAVY. PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY
DIMINISHING OVER MY EAST BUT AM STILL SEEING GUSTY WINDS AT ROLLA
AND RUGBY TO OVER 40 MPH. THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY AS
IS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND NORTH IF I94 WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

100KT JET STREAK SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW FROM EASTERN KANSAS
NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...ALONG WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS TODAY...WILL ALL HELP TO NUDGE THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. SEVERAL MORE EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW WILL STILL BRING LIGHT RAINFALL TO MOST LOCATIONS
THIS MORNING...BUT WILL SEE CHANCES DECREASE NORTH LATER
TODAY...WITH THIS TREND (DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH) CONTINUING TONIGHT. WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL NOW EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM
SYSTEM...WE OPTED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH WITH FURTHER
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CRESTS ACROSS THE
REGION. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
PERIODIC ENERGY TRAVERSING THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERATE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY...CONTINUED TO BROAD
BRUSH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TRY AND TARGET WHICH DAY WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...IF ANY SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOPS AT ALL. AS A RESULT...SIDED WITH THE SPC AND THINK
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

LIGHT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL TERMINALS TUESDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED
NORTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER 06Z FOR KMOT-KISN...ALONG WITH
DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ALL TERMINALS. WIND GUSTS OF 30 KTS
STILL POSSIBLE AT KJMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD

000
FXUS63 KFGF 211157
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
657 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

ADJUSTED POPS A BIT FOR TIMING...BUT THE MAIN CHANGE THIS UPDATE
WAS TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY. COOPERSTOWN HAS BEEN HANGING ON
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IT IS THE ONLY SITE THAT STRONG
ANYMORE AS EVERYWHERE ELSE HAS DROPPED TO AROUND 20 KTS SUSTAINED.
WILL CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY BUT WITH RAIN PICKING UP AGAIN WILL
KEEP THE FLOOD PRODUCTS WE HAVE GOING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

WV LOOP HAS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO ROTATE OVER SD...AND THE
CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH
AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA WILL
BEGIN TO RELAX BY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH 15Z AND THINK THAT WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW CRITERIA BY
LATE MORNING. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH CWA ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW FROM EAST TO WEST. COVERAGE IS A BIT
MORE SCATTERED BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL AGAIN GET WET AT SOME POINT
TODAY. CONTINUED THE TREND OF HIGH POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES TODAY WITH DIMINISHING PROBABILITIES IN THE NORTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM CANADA.
CONTINUED TO HAVE DECREASING POPS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW...WITH ONLY A 30 PERCENT CHANCE HANGING ON IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE EVEN SOME
CLEARING IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO KEPT
HIGHER TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THAT AREA WITH LOWER
READINGS FURTHER SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HANG AROUND
LONGER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS. CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND 40
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME GOOD RECOVERY ON
THURSDAY AS TEMPS WARM BACK UP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND KEEP
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GETS GOING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...THE SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD ON FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL OR SOUTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND WITH
PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST AND A SERIES OF IMPULSES
EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THESE IMPULSES
IS LOW AT THIS RANGE. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS
RAIN CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY BREEZY IN THE
15 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY
EVENING. SOME DROPS IN VIS DOWN TO THE 2-5SM RANGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. THINK THAT THE CEILINGS WILL
COME UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE SITES IN THE MVFR RANGE.
SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT FOR
NOW JUST HAVE KDVL GOING TO VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE RED RIVER BASIN AND
ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WALHALLA AND NECHE ALONG THE
PEMBINA RIVER. WALHALLA APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF SOMEWHAT IN
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
NECHE CONTINUES TO RISE QUITE RAPIDLY TOWARDS MAJOR FLOOD STAGE.
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOREST RIVER AT
MINTO AND THE PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON...WHERE STAGES MAY REACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE.

OVER THE LAST 18 HOURS...ONE INCH TO ONE AND ONE QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN FELL OVER BUFFALO RIVER BASIN AND THE RED RIVER BASIN IN THE
VICINITY OF WAHPETON. THIS HAS RESULTED IN NEW FORECASTS PUSHING THE
CREST INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH RAIN
WILL FALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WILL ISSUE FLOOD WATCHES FOR
THESE THREE POINTS.

AREAL FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WALSH...PEMBINA...AND PARTS OF CAVALIER COUNTIES...WHERE SOME OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE OCCURRED. INCREASINGLY SATURATED GROUND
MAY LEAD TO SOME OVERLAND FLOOD CONCERNS WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TODAY ACROSS OTHER AREAS OF THE REGION.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF PEMBINA COUNTY
AS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS CAUSED FLOODWATERS TO
APPROACH THE TOP OF THE SPILLWAY AT THE RENWICK DAM. RIVER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO RISE ALONG THE TONGUE RIVER AT AKRA. SEE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH PRODUCT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-
     026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008.

MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-
     027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI

000
FXUS63 KBIS 211140
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
640 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

GRADIENT FLOW HAS DECREASED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A SURFACE
LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MODIFIED HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
RAIN AND WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE REGION.

CURRENTLY...LARGE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...CENTERED OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL EMBEDDED
VORTICITY MAXIMUMS/CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ROTATING AROUND/WITHIN
THE LARGE LOW. RAIN IS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH MOST OBS REPORTING LIGHT
RAIN RATHER THAN MODERATE OR HEAVY. PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY
DIMINISHING OVER MY EAST BUT AM STILL SEEING GUSTY WINDS AT ROLLA
AND RUGBY TO OVER 40 MPH. THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY AS
IS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND NORTH IF I94 WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

100KT JET STREAK SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW FROM EASTERN KANSAS
NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...ALONG WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS TODAY...WILL ALL HELP TO NUDGE THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. SEVERAL MORE EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW WILL STILL BRING LIGHT RAINFALL TO MOST LOCATIONS
THIS MORNING...BUT WILL SEE CHANCES DECREASE NORTH LATER
TODAY...WITH THIS TREND (DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH) CONTINUING TONIGHT. WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL NOW EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM
SYSTEM...WE OPTED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH WITH FURTHER
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CRESTS ACROSS THE
REGION. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
PERIODIC ENERGY TRAVERSING THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERATE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY...CONTINUED TO BROAD
BRUSH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TRY AND TARGET WHICH DAY WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...IF ANY SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOPS AT ALL. AS A RESULT...SIDED WITH THE SPC AND THINK
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

LIGHT TO SOMETIMES MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL
TERMINALS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED NORTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER 06Z FOR
KMOT-KISN...ALONG WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ALL TERMINALS.
WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS STILL POSSIBLE AT KJMS THROUGH THIS
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...NH

000
FXUS63 KBIS 210914
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
414 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
RAIN AND WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE REGION.

CURRENTLY...LARGE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...CENTERED OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL EMBEDDED
VORTICITY MAXIMUMS/CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ROTATING AROUND/WITHIN
THE LARGE LOW. RAIN IS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH MOST OBS REPORTING LIGHT
RAIN RATHER THAN MODERATE OR HEAVY. PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY
DIMINISHING OVER MY EAST BUT AM STILL SEEING GUSTY WINDS AT ROLLA
AND RUGBY TO OVER 40 MPH. THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY AS
IS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND NORTH IF I94 WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

100KT JET STREAK SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW FROM EASTERN KANSAS
NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...ALONG WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS TODAY...WILL ALL HELP TO NUDGE THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. SEVERAL MORE EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW WILL STILL BRING LIGHT RAINFALL TO MOST LOCATIONS
THIS MORNING...BUT WILL SEE CHANCES DECREASE NORTH LATER
TODAY...WITH THIS TREND (DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH) CONTINUING TONIGHT. WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL NOW EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM
SYSTEM...WE OPTED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH WITH FURTHER
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CRESTS ACROSS THE
REGION. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
PERIODIC ENERGY TRAVERSING THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERATE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY...CONTINUED TO BROAD
BRUSH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TRY AND TARGET WHICH DAY WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...IF ANY SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOPS AT ALL. AS A RESULT...SIDED WITH THE SPC AND THINK
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

LIGHT TO SOMETIMES MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL
TERMINALS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED NORTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER 06Z FOR
KMOT-KISN...ALONG WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ALL TERMINALS.
WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS STILL POSSIBLE AT KJMS THROUGH THIS
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-
022-023-025-036-037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...NH

000
FXUS63 KFGF 210845
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
345 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

WV LOOP HAS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO ROTATE OVER SD...AND THE
CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH
AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA WILL
BEGIN TO RELAX BY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH 15Z AND THINK THAT WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW CRITERIA BY
LATE MORNING. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH CWA ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW FROM EAST TO WEST. COVERAGE IS A BIT
MORE SCATTERED BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL AGAIN GET WET AT SOME POINT
TODAY. CONTINUED THE TREND OF HIGH POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES TODAY WITH DIMINISHING PROBABILITIES IN THE NORTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM CANADA.
CONTINUED TO HAVE DECREASING POPS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW...WITH ONLY A 30 PERCENT CHANCE HANGING ON IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE EVEN SOME
CLEARING IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO KEPT
HIGHER TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THAT AREA WITH LOWER
READINGS FURTHER SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HANG AROUND
LONGER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS. CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND 40
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME GOOD RECOVERY ON
THURSDAY AS TEMPS WARM BACK UP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND KEEP
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GETS GOING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...THE SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD ON FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL OR SOUTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND WITH
PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST AND A SERIES OF IMPULSES
EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THESE IMPULSES
IS LOW AT THIS RANGE. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 709 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE RAIN COVERAGE MAY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PERIODS OF RAINFALL. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW...LIKELY
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR. WINDS STRONGEST AT KDVL...WITH
KGFK AND KTVF ALSO GUSTY. KBJI AND KFAR ARE CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE
LOW AND SHOULD HAVE THE LOWEST WIND SPEEDS...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
BY MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE RED RIVER BASIN AND
ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WALHALLA AND NECHE ALONG THE
PEMBINA RIVER. WALHALLA APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF SOMEWHAT IN
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
NECHE CONTINUES TO RISE QUITE RAPIDLY TOWARDS MAJOR FLOOD STAGE.
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOREST RIVER AT
MINTO AND THE PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON...WHERE STAGES MAY REACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE.

OVER THE LAST 18 HOURS...ONE INCH TO ONE AND ONE QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN FELL OVER BUFFALO RIVER BASIN AND THE RED RIVER BASIN IN THE
VICINITY OF WAHPETON. THIS HAS RESULTED IN NEW FORECASTS PUSHING THE
CREST INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH RAIN
WILL FALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WILL ISSUE FLOOD WATCHES FOR
THESE THREE POINTS.

AREAL FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WALSH...PEMBINA...AND PARTS OF CAVALIER COUNTIES...WHERE SOME OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE OCCURRED. INCREASINGLY SATURATED GROUND
MAY LEAD TO SOME OVERLAND FLOOD CONCERNS WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TODAY ACROSS OTHER AREAS OF THE REGION.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF PEMBINA COUNTY
AS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS CAUSED FLOODWATERS TO
APPROACH THE TOP OF THE SPILLWAY AT THE RENWICK DAM. RIVER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO RISE ALONG THE TONGUE RIVER AT AKRA. SEE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH PRODUCT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-
     026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-028-038-054.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008.

MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-
     027>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI

000
FXUS63 KBIS 210609
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
109 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MAIN UPDATE EARLY THIS MORNING WAS TO TRIM THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
WIND ADVISORY WITH WINDS DECREASING ALONG TO WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
OTHERWISE THE INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH RAIN CONTINUING
MOST AREAS.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1008 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

MAIN UPDATE THIS EVENING WAS TO ADJUST THE WIND ADVISORY. WINDS
ARE DIMINISHING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWEST AND EXPECT WINDS
SOUTHWEST TO DROP SOON. THEREFORE WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY IN THE
WEST. WILL KEEP IT GOING IN THE CENTRAL THROUGH 1 AM CDT. DID
EXTEND THE ADVISORY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH 7 AM BASED MAINLY ON RAP ANALYSIS KEEPING 40-45 KNOT WINDS
AT 925MB INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

QUICK UPDATE JUST TO FRESHEN UP GRIDS NOT UPDATED WITH THE
EXPANSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY. NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. WITH NEXT UPDATE MAY NEED TO LOOK INTO EXTENDING EASTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

UPDATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG WINDS. WILL EXTEND THE
WIND ADVISORY FARTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94.

VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUST TO 48KTS RECORDED AT ROLLA. CURRENT GUSTS
HAVE SUBSIDED BACK TO AROUND 40-42 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING THIS EVENING.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AROUND 40-45 KNOTS OF WIND AT 925 MB
THROUGH MID EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR AND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. ALSO 850 KNOT WINDS
INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH FGF...WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY FARTHER SOUTH TO ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...AND
KEEP AN EYE ON WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL...HOLDING OFF ON
A HIGH WIND WARNING AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE IMPACTS OF THE
ONGOING RAINFALL EVENT.

OVERALL THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE 12 UTC GFS/GEM/ECMWF AND 15 UTC SREF FOR ALL FIELDS.
CURRENTLY THE STACKED LOW ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH
TUESDAY. WRAP AROUND RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DOWNTREND
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DID MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE WEST AND NORTH. THE WIND FIELD ACROSS THESE AREAS CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN WITH 40-45 KTS AT THE TOP OF A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER AS
DEPICTED BY THE 12 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
RIVER AND OVERLAND FLOODING CONCERNS. SEE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PERSISTENT RAINS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE SD/MN BORDER TUESDAY EVENING...THEN BECOME
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER IA/WI/IL AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SCENARIO WILL MEAN THE VERY HIGH/LIKELY
CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE JAMES RIVER BASIN WILL LESSEN
TO SCATTERED IN NATURE BY WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCES TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVES EAST...A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ROCKIES. THUS NO PRECIPITATION
MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE...SETTING UP A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
WILL MEAN PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THIS WILL RESULT IN BROAD
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS...ALLOWING PLENTY OF GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD. A PROLONGED LOW LEVEL JET AT H925-H850
WILL HELP TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND ENERGY NORTHWARD UP THE PLAINS.
THUS PERIODIC EPISODES OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

WHILE TOO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CERTAINTY IN NARROWING DOWN SPECIFIC
AREAS OF CONCERN...SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY
AND FORECAST CAPE DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WOULD SUGGEST SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
A BROAD AREA OF THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR LATER
FORECASTS AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

LIGHT TO SOMETIMES MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. WIND
GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT EASTERN TAF
SITES...KJMS...THROUGH THIS TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

DID MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. CALLS TO AREA EMERGENCY MANAGERS REVEAL THAT
FOR THE MOST PART...COUNTY AND TOWNSHIP ROAD IMPACTS ARE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...AS SOILS CONTINUE TO SATURATE...OVERLAND FLOOD CONCERNS
COULD INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. FURTHERMORE...REPORTS HAVE BEEN
COMING IN OF WATER ENTERING BASEMENTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
SATURATED GROUND. ADDITIONAL RIVER AND STREAM RISES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COMING DAYS. FOR THE MOST PART WITHIN BANK RISES ARE
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THE SOURIS RIVER AT TOWNER IS EXPECTED TO
RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AGAIN...THE PIPESTEM CREEK NEAR PINGREE IS
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
THE WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY POSSIBLY APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-
022-023-025-036-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...AYD

000
FXUS63 KBIS 210308
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1008 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

MAIN UPDATE THIS EVENING WAS TO ADJUST THE WIND ADVISORY. WINDS
ARE DIMINISHING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWEST AND EXPECT WINDS
SOUTHWEST TO DROP SOON. THEREFORE WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY IN THE
WEST. WILL KEEP IT GOING IN THE CENTRAL THROUGH 1 AM CDT. DID
EXTEND THE ADVISORY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH 7 AM BASED MAINLY ON RAP ANALYSIS KEEPING 40-45 KNOT WINDS
AT 925MB INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

QUICK UPDATE JUST TO FRESHEN UP GRIDS NOT UPDATED WITH THE
EXPANSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY. NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. WITH NEXT UPDATE MAY NEED TO LOOK INTO EXTENDING EASTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

UPDATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG WINDS. WILL EXTEND THE
WIND ADVISORY FARTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94.

VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUST TO 48KTS RECORDED AT ROLLA. CURRENT GUSTS
HAVE SUBSIDED BACK TO AROUND 40-42 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING THIS EVENING.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AROUND 40-45 KNOTS OF WIND AT 925 MB
THROUGH MID EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR AND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. ALSO 850 KNOT WINDS
INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH FGF...WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY FARTHER SOUTH TO ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...AND
KEEP AN EYE ON WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL...HOLDING OFF ON
A HIGH WIND WARNING AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE IMPACTS OF THE
ONGOING RAINFALL EVENT.

OVERALL THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE 12 UTC GFS/GEM/ECMWF AND 15 UTC SREF FOR ALL FIELDS.
CURRENTLY THE STACKED LOW ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH
TUESDAY. WRAP AROUND RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DOWNTREND
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DID MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE WEST AND NORTH. THE WIND FIELD ACROSS THESE AREAS CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN WITH 40-45 KTS AT THE TOP OF A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER AS
DEPICTED BY THE 12 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
RIVER AND OVERLAND FLOODING CONCERNS. SEE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PERSISTENT RAINS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE SD/MN BORDER TUESDAY EVENING...THEN BECOME
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER IA/WI/IL AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SCENARIO WILL MEAN THE VERY HIGH/LIKELY
CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE JAMES RIVER BASIN WILL LESSEN
TO SCATTERED IN NATURE BY WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCES TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVES EAST...A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ROCKIES. THUS NO PRECIPITATION
MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE...SETTING UP A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
WILL MEAN PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THIS WILL RESULT IN BROAD
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS...ALLOWING PLENTY OF GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD. A PROLONGED LOW LEVEL JET AT H925-H850
WILL HELP TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND ENERGY NORTHWARD UP THE PLAINS.
THUS PERIODIC EPISODES OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

WHILE TOO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CERTAINTY IN NARROWING DOWN SPECIFIC
AREAS OF CONCERN...SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY
AND FORECAST CAPE DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WOULD SUGGEST SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
A BROAD AREA OF THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR LATER
FORECASTS AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. WIND GUSTS OF
30-40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

DID MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. CALLS TO AREA EMERGENCY MANAGERS REVEAL THAT
FOR THE MOST PART...COUNTY AND TOWNSHIP ROAD IMPACTS ARE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...AS SOILS CONTINUE TO SATURATE...OVERLAND FLOOD CONCERNS
COULD INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. FURTHERMORE...REPORTS HAVE BEEN
COMING IN OF WATER ENTERING BASEMENTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
SATURATED GROUND. ADDITIONAL RIVER AND STREAM RISES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COMING DAYS. FOR THE MOST PART WITHIN BANK RISES ARE
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THE SOURIS RIVER AT TOWNER IS EXPECTED TO
RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AGAIN...THE PIPESTEM CREEK NEAR PINGREE IS
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
THE WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY POSSIBLY APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
HYDROLOGY...AYD

000
FXUS63 KFGF 210255
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
POINT. THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS IS DECREASING ACROSS THE
EASTERN FA...BUT THIS WAS HANDLED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE...AND
THINK THAT THIS AREA WILL AGAIN FILL IN BY LATER TONIGHT. THE
STEADIER RAINS MAY COME TO AN END...BUT MOST AREAS WILL STILL
RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITHIN EACH 6 HOUR PERIOD. WINDS ARE
ALSO ON TRACK WITH PREVIOUS THINKING.

MADE SOME CALLS AROUND THE REGION IN AN ATTEMPT TO SEE IF THERE
ARE ANY AREAL FLOODING PROBLEMS (OTHER THAN WHERE THE CURRENT
AREAL FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED). REPORTS INDICATE THAT EVEN WHERE
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN OCCURRED...NO PROBLEMS OTHER THAN MINOR PONDING
EXIST. ONE THOUGHT IS THAT MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN WITHOUT SNOWCOVER
FOR SOME TIME...AND MUCH OF THE RAIN HAS BEEN ABLE TO SOAK INTO
THE GROUND. HOWEVER...WITHIN THE CURRENT AREAL FLOOD
WARNING...SNOWCOVER LASTED LONGER...AND THE SOIL IS MORE SATURATED
WHICH IS CAUSING MUCH MORE RUNOFF (PLUS THIS AREA GOT A LOT MORE
RAIN). THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN AFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
AS WATER MAY STILL BE RUNNING OFF AND COULD POTENTIALLY CAUSE
PROBLEMS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

CONTINUING TO WATCH WINDS ACROSS THE NW FA...AND SO FAR THEY ARE
REMAINING WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE
CONSIDERING THERE IS NO STRONG MECHANISM TO MIX THE WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. LAV GUIDANCE IS DOING WELL WITH CURRENT WIND SPEEDS...AND
INDICATES 30-40MPH WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. THE RAP INDICATES WINDS ALOFT (925MB)
REMAIN AOA 35 KNOTS UNTIL 15Z TUE. WILL EXTENT THE WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS THE WESTERN FA UNTIL 15Z TUE.

STEADY RAIN CONTINUES ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...WITH AN AREA
OF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF THE VALLEY. WAVES WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW...AND WILL NOT ADJUST POPS TOO
MUCH. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE THE MORE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS ACROSS THE SE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

VERY SEVERE FLOODING SITUATION OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. KMVX 88D STORM PRECIP TOTALS EITHER VIA LEGACY STP OR THE
NEW DUAL POL ARE WOEFULLY UNDERDONE ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. SENT OUT A LONG LIST OF RAINFALL REPORTS SO FAR
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES WITH POCKET OF 4-6 INCHES OR MORE FROM HOMME
DAM NEAR PARK RIVER ND UP THROUGH CRYSTAL TO MOUNTAIN ND TO
WALHALLA. LOTS OF CREEK FLOODING AND OVERLAND FLOODING THERE AND
UPDATED AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THIS AREA.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CONTINUED RAIN...THOUGH A BIT DRIER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD MEAN RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHTER AS THE
NIGHT GOES ALONG. SOME THUNDER IN DRY SLOT FROM LITTLE FALLS TO ST
CLOUD AND SOME ISOLD THUNDER MAY MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
THIS EVE. OTHERWISE JUST RAIN. ANOTHER HALF INCH OR A BIT MORE
THRU TONIGHT ISOLD 1 INCH MORE IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN
AREAS HAVE HAD THE LEAST AND CAN TAKE IT. WILL MAINTAIN AREAL
FLOOD WATCH AS ISSUED EARLIER.

FOR WINDS EXPANDED WIND ADV TO ROSEAU COUNTY AS ROX AWOS CONTINUES
TO SEE WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS AND SUSTAINED WINDS 25-30 KTS.
EXPECT TO SEE WINDY CONDITIONS THRU 03Z BEFORE THEY DIMINISH.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPR LOW AND SFC LOW STACKED SOUTH OF SISSETON
AND THIS LOW WILL BE STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL SEE LIGHTER RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY....BUT FOCUS MORE ON THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING AND DRYING
MOVING SOUTH. MAINLY DRY WED NIGH INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
COMING IN. FOR THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MOST OF THE FA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS THE FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHWEST. THIS SWITCH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ACTIVE
WEATHER BACK INTO THE FA FOR BASICALLY THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS TODAY ARE SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF NORTHEAST FLOW ERODING SOME OF THIS PCPN
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST FA. THEREFORE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN SHOULD PROBABLY BE OVER THE WESTERN FA WITH
LESSER CHANCES TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 709 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE RAIN COVERAGE MAY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PERIODS OF RAINFALL. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW...LIKELY
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR. WINDS STRONGEST AT KDVL...WITH
KGFK AND KTVF ALSO GUSTY. KBJI AND KFAR ARE CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE
LOW AND SHOULD HAVE THE LOWEST WIND SPEEDS...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
BY MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ACROSS THE RED
RIVER BASIN AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES. OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS...
ONE INCH TO ONE AND ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FELL OVER BUFFALO
RIVER BASIN AND THE RED RIVER BASIN IN THE VICINITY OF WAHPETON.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN NEW FORECASTS PUSHING THE CREST INTO MINOR
FLOOD STAGE. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WILL ISSUE FLOOD WATCHES FOR THESE THREE
POINTS.

THREE TO FIVE INCHES TOTAL HAVE FALLEN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND SITES ALONG THE FOREST AND PARK RIVERS ARE RISING
RAPIDLY. THERE IS ALSO PLENTY OF AREAL FLOODING TO RUN OFF INTO
THESE RIVERS...AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE WARNINGS FOR
MINOR FLOODING AT BOTH LOCATIONS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THE
PEMBINA RIVER AT WALHALLA FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR FLOODING.
A WARNING FOR MODERATE FLOODING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...BUT MAY
NEED TO BE UPGRADED IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
     026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-
     026-028-038-054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ008-016.

MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ004-005-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/GODON
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...SPEICHER

000
FXUS63 KBIS 210034
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
734 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 734 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

QUICK UPDATE JUST TO FRESHEN UP GRIDS NOT UPDATED WITH THE
EXPANSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY. NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. WITH NEXT UPDATE MAY NEED TO LOOK INTO EXTENDING EASTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

UPDATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG WINDS. WILL EXTEND THE
WIND ADVISORY FARTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94.

VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUST TO 48KTS RECORDED AT ROLLA. CURRENT GUSTS
HAVE SUBSIDED BACK TO AROUND 40-42 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING THIS EVENING.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AROUND 40-45 KNOTS OF WIND AT 925 MB
THROUGH MID EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR AND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. ALSO 850 KNOT WINDS
INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH FGF...WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY FARTHER SOUTH TO ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...AND
KEEP AN EYE ON WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL...HOLDING OFF ON
A HIGH WIND WARNING AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE IMPACTS OF THE
ONGOING RAINFALL EVENT.

OVERALL THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE 12 UTC GFS/GEM/ECMWF AND 15 UTC SREF FOR ALL FIELDS.
CURRENTLY THE STACKED LOW ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH
TUESDAY. WRAP AROUND RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DOWNTREND
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DID MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE WEST AND NORTH. THE WIND FIELD ACROSS THESE AREAS CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN WITH 40-45 KTS AT THE TOP OF A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER AS
DEPICTED BY THE 12 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
RIVER AND OVERLAND FLOODING CONCERNS. SEE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PERSISTENT RAINS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE SD/MN BORDER TUESDAY EVENING...THEN BECOME
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER IA/WI/IL AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SCENARIO WILL MEAN THE VERY HIGH/LIKELY
CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE JAMES RIVER BASIN WILL LESSEN
TO SCATTERED IN NATURE BY WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCES TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVES EAST...A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ROCKIES. THUS NO PRECIPITATION
MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE...SETTING UP A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
WILL MEAN PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THIS WILL RESULT IN BROAD
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS...ALLOWING PLENTY OF GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD. A PROLONGED LOW LEVEL JET AT H925-H850
WILL HELP TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND ENERGY NORTHWARD UP THE PLAINS.
THUS PERIODIC EPISODES OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

WHILE TOO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CERTAINTY IN NARROWING DOWN SPECIFIC
AREAS OF CONCERN...SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY
AND FORECAST CAPE DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WOULD SUGGEST SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
A BROAD AREA OF THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR LATER
FORECASTS AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. WIND GUSTS OF
30-40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

DID MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. CALLS TO AREA EMERGENCY MANAGERS REVEAL THAT
FOR THE MOST PART...COUNTY AND TOWNSHIP ROAD IMPACTS ARE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...AS SOILS CONTINUE TO SATURATE...OVERLAND FLOOD CONCERNS
COULD INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. FURTHERMORE...REPORTS HAVE BEEN
COMING IN OF WATER ENTERING BASEMENTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
SATURATED GROUND. ADDITIONAL RIVER AND STREAM RISES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COMING DAYS. FOR THE MOST PART WITHIN BANK RISES ARE
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THE SOURIS RIVER AT TOWNER IS EXPECTED TO
RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AGAIN...THE PIPESTEM CREEK NEAR PINGREE IS
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
THE WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY POSSIBLY APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
HYDROLOGY...AYD

000
FXUS63 KFGF 210009
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
709 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 709 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

CONTINUING TO WATCH WINDS ACROSS THE NW FA...AND SO FAR THEY ARE
REMAINING WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE
CONSIDERING THERE IS NO STRONG MECHANISM TO MIX THE WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. LAV GUIDANCE IS DOING WELL WITH CURRENT WIND SPEEDS...AND
INDICATES 30-40MPH WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. THE RAP INDICATES WINDS ALOFT (925MB)
REMAIN AOA 35 KNOTS UNTIL 15Z TUE. WILL EXTENT THE WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS THE WESTERN FA UNTIL 15Z TUE.

STEADY RAIN CONTINUES ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...WITH AN AREA
OF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF THE VALLEY. WAVES WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW...AND WILL NOT ADJUST POPS TOO
MUCH. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE THE MORE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS ACROSS THE SE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

VERY SEVERE FLOODING SITUATION OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. KMVX 88D STORM PRECIP TOTALS EITHER VIA LEGACY STP OR THE
NEW DUAL POL ARE WOEFULLY UNDERDONE ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. SENT OUT A LONG LIST OF RAINFALL REPORTS SO FAR
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES WITH POCKET OF 4-6 INCHES OR MORE FROM HOMME
DAM NEAR PARK RIVER ND UP THROUGH CRYSTAL TO MOUNTAIN ND TO
WALHALLA. LOTS OF CREEK FLOODING AND OVERLAND FLOODING THERE AND
UPDATED AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THIS AREA.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CONTINUED RAIN...THOUGH A BIT DRIER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD MEAN RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHTER AS THE
NIGHT GOES ALONG. SOME THUNDER IN DRY SLOT FROM LITTLE FALLS TO ST
CLOUD AND SOME ISOLD THUNDER MAY MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
THIS EVE. OTHERWISE JUST RAIN. ANOTHER HALF INCH OR A BIT MORE
THRU TONIGHT ISOLD 1 INCH MORE IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN
AREAS HAVE HAD THE LEAST AND CAN TAKE IT. WILL MAINTAIN AREAL
FLOOD WATCH AS ISSUED EARLIER.

FOR WINDS EXPANDED WIND ADV TO ROSEAU COUNTY AS ROX AWOS CONTINUES
TO SEE WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS AND SUSTAINED WINDS 25-30 KTS.
EXPECT TO SEE WINDY CONDITIONS THRU 03Z BEFORE THEY DIMINISH.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPR LOW AND SFC LOW STACKED SOUTH OF SISSETON
AND THIS LOW WILL BE STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL SEE LIGHTER RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY....BUT FOCUS MORE ON THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING AND DRYING
MOVING SOUTH. MAINLY DRY WED NIGH INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
COMING IN. FOR THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MOST OF THE FA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS THE FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHWEST. THIS SWITCH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ACTIVE
WEATHER BACK INTO THE FA FOR BASICALLY THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS TODAY ARE SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF NORTHEAST FLOW ERODING SOME OF THIS PCPN
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST FA. THEREFORE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN SHOULD PROBABLY BE OVER THE WESTERN FA WITH
LESSER CHANCES TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 709 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE RAIN COVERAGE MAY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PERIODS OF RAINFALL. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW...LIKELY
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR. WINDS STRONGEST AT KDVL...WITH
KGFK AND KTVF ALSO GUSTY. KBJI AND KFAR ARE CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE
LOW AND SHOULD HAVE THE LOWEST WIND SPEEDS...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
BY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

RIVER FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE RED RIVER AT
WAHPETON AND ITS SOUTHERN VALLEY MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EITHER INSUFFICIENT OR RUNOFF DUBIOUS TO
FORCE THESE POINTS TO FLOOD STAGE DURING THIS EVENT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
     026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-
     026-028-038-054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ008-016.

MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ004-005-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/GODON
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...WJB

000
FXUS63 KBIS 202239
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
539 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

UPDATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG WINDS. WILL EXTEND THE
WIND ADVISORY FARTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94.


VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUST TO 48KTS RECORDED AT ROLLA. CURRENT GUSTS
HAVE SUBSIDED BACK TO AROUND 40-42 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING THIS EVENING.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AROUND 40-45 KNOTS OF WIND AT 925 MB
THROUGH MID EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR AND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. ALSO 850 KNOT WINDS
INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH FGF...WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY FARTHER SOUTH TO ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...AND
KEEP AN EYE ON WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL...HOLDING OFF ON
A HIGH WIND WARNING AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE IMPACTS OF THE
ONGOING RAINFALL EVENT.

OVERALL THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE 12 UTC GFS/GEM/ECMWF AND 15 UTC SREF FOR ALL FIELDS.
CURRENTLY THE STACKED LOW ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH
TUESDAY. WRAP AROUND RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DOWNTREND
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DID MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE WEST AND NORTH. THE WIND FIELD ACROSS THESE AREAS CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN WITH 40-45 KTS AT THE TOP OF A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER AS
DEPICTED BY THE 12 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
RIVER AND OVERLAND FLOODING CONCERNS. SEE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PERSISTENT RAINS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE SD/MN BORDER TUESDAY EVENING...THEN BECOME
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER IA/WI/IL AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SCENARIO WILL MEAN THE VERY HIGH/LIKELY
CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE JAMES RIVER BASIN WILL LESSEN
TO SCATTERED IN NATURE BY WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCES TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVES EAST...A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ROCKIES. THUS NO PRECIPITATION
MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE...SETTING UP A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
WILL MEAN PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THIS WILL RESULT IN BROAD
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS...ALLOWING PLENTY OF GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD. A PROLONGED LOW LEVEL JET AT H925-H850
WILL HELP TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND ENERGY NORTHWARD UP THE PLAINS.
THUS PERIODIC EPISODES OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

WHILE TOO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CERTAINTY IN NARROWING DOWN SPECIFIC
AREAS OF CONCERN...SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY
AND FORECAST CAPE DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WOULD SUGGEST SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
A BROAD AREA OF THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR LATER
FORECASTS AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. WIND GUSTS OF
30-40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

DID MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. CALLS TO AREA EMERGENCY MANAGERS REVEAL THAT
FOR THE MOST PART...COUNTY AND TOWNSHIP ROAD IMPACTS ARE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...AS SOILS CONTINUE TO SATURATE...OVERLAND FLOOD CONCERNS
COULD INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. FURTHERMORE...REPORTS HAVE BEEN
COMING IN OF WATER ENTERING BASEMENTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
SATURATED GROUND. ADDITIONAL RIVER AND STREAM RISES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COMING DAYS. FOR THE MOST PART WITHIN BANK RISES ARE
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THE SOURIS RIVER AT TOWNER IS EXPECTED TO
RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AGAIN...THE PIPESTEM CREEK NEAR PINGREE IS
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
THE WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY POSSIBLY APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-
017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
HYDROLOGY...AYD

000
FXUS63 KFGF 202233
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
533 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 533 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

WATCHING WINDS ACROSS THE NW FA VERY CLOSELY THIS EVENING. THERE
IS AN AREA FROM ROLLA TO LANGDON WHERE THE AWOS SITES HAVE BEEN
FLIRTING WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA (BOTH SUSTAINED AND
GUSTS). THE RAP INDICATES THE ADIABATIC LAYER WILL DEEPEN OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND 925MB WINDS WILL INCREASE. THE LAV
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
WINDS...AND INDICATES 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ACROSS THIS AREA
AT 00Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR...BUT WILL MONITOR IT CLOSELY. THE RAP AND LAV GUIDANCE ALSO
INDICATE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
ANTICIPATED AS THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY WARBLES SOUTHWARD...AND WILL
EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY INTO THE COOPERSTOWN AND VALLEY CITY
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

VERY SEVERE FLOODING SITUATION OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. KMVX 88D STORM PRECIP TOTALS EITHER VIA LEGACY STP OR THE
NEW DUAL POL ARE WOEFULLY UNDERDONE ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. SENT OUT A LONG LIST OF RAINFALL REPORTS SO FAR
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES WITH POCKET OF 4-6 INCHES OR MORE FROM HOMME
DAM NEAR PARK RIVER ND UP THROUGH CRYSTAL TO MOUNTAIN ND TO
WALHALLA. LOTS OF CREEK FLOODING AND OVERLAND FLOODING THERE AND
UPDATED AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THIS AREA.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CONTINUED RAIN...THOUGH A BIT DRIER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD MEAN RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHTER AS THE
NIGHT GOES ALONG. SOME THUNDER IN DRY SLOT FROM LITTLE FALLS TO ST
CLOUD AND SOME ISOLD THUNDER MAY MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
THIS EVE. OTHERWISE JUST RAIN. ANOTHER HALF INCH OR A BIT MORE
THRU TONIGHT ISOLD 1 INCH MORE IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN
AREAS HAVE HAD THE LEAST AND CAN TAKE IT. WILL MAINTAIN AREAL
FLOOD WATCH AS ISSUED EARLIER.

FOR WINDS EXPANDED WIND ADV TO ROSEAU COUNTY AS ROX AWOS CONTINUES
TO SEE WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS AND SUSTAINED WINDS 25-30 KTS.
EXPECT TO SEE WINDY CONDITIONS THRU 03Z BEFORE THEY DIMINISH.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPR LOW AND SFC LOW STACKED SOUTH OF SISSETON
AND THIS LOW WILL BE STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL SEE LIGHTER RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY....BUT FOCUS MORE ON THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING AND DRYING
MOVING SOUTH. MAINLY DRY WED NIGH INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
COMING IN. FOR THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MOST OF THE FA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS THE FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHWEST. THIS SWITCH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ACTIVE
WEATHER BACK INTO THE FA FOR BASICALLY THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS TODAY ARE SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF NORTHEAST FLOW ERODING SOME OF THIS PCPN
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST FA. THEREFORE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN SHOULD PROBABLY BE OVER THE WESTERN FA WITH
LESSER CHANCES TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE AT KDVL BUT KGFK/KTVF WILL STILL
SEE SOME PRETTY GUSTY EAST-NE WINDS. KBJI AND KFAR WILL BE QUITE A
BIT LOWER FOR WIND SPEEDS DUE TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC
LOW. EXACT VSBYS AND CEILINGS TOUGH TO CALL BUT IT DEFINITELY LOOKS
WET. WILL STICK WITH STEADY RAIN AT ALL TAF SITES EVEN THOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME TEMPORARY BREAKS. CLOUD HEIGHTS SEEM TO BE INCREASING A
LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULD GO DOWN AGAIN TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

RIVER FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE RED RIVER AT
WAHPETON AND ITS SOUTHERN VALLEY MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EITHER INSUFFICIENT OR RUNOFF DUBIOUS TO
FORCE THESE POINTS TO FLOOD STAGE DURING THIS EVENT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
     026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
     026-028-038-054.

MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ004-005-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/GODON
AVIATION...GODON
HYDROLOGY...WJB