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000
FXUS63 KFGF 252350
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
650 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CLEARING...DRY LINE NOW EXTENDS FROM WARROAD TO TVF TO FAR TO
FORMAN. ITS SLOW PROGRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING. DEW POINT GRADIENT QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH DEWS NEAR 70
ALONG AND AHEAD AND LOW 50S IN ITS WAKE. CONVECTION HAS INITIATED
ALONG THE LINE AND SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND
N BELTRAMI COUNTIES...CLOSER TO THE UPPER SUPPORT IN MANITOBA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS LOW END PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF THE VALLEY. SPOTTY CONVECTION TRYING TO
ORGANIZE JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER ALONG BOUNDARY AHEAD OF WEAK MID
LEVEL IMPULSE. COULD SEE SOME SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON SO LOW POPS SEEM JUSTIFIED. BY EVENING FRONT SHOULD
BE EAST OF FA OR CLOSE TO SO KEPT THE OVERNIGHT DRY. THERMAL RIDGE
SHIFTS OVER FA HOWEVER WITH FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT MIXING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DIP A TAD BLO AVERAGE.

ON SATURDAY UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS IT
DOES A RESPECTABLE COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE FA.
COLD POOL ENTERS THE NORTHERN FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN THIS AREA. AIRMASS FAIRLY STABLE SO
CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANY T AND TRIMMED BACK TO MOSTLY SHRA. SOUTHERN
FA SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER TO AVERAGE MID SUMMER VALUES
WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. FAIRLY DEEP MIXED
LAYER SO EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER DVL BASIN.

UPPER LOW DROPS SE ACROSS NE MN OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW
POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY NE HALF OF FA AS TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOLLOWS UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH SCT SHRA.

UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. COOLER COLUMN
WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT BLO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

HIGH AND DRY BEST DESCRIBES THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIODS. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE BOTH LOCKED ONTO A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE WESTERN NOAM H5
RIDGE POSITION THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WITH NO CLEAR SIGNS
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS.  THE ECMWF HAS A THREAT OF A ISOLATED SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY
OR EARLY THURSDAY... BUT WITH THE GFS COMING IN MARKEDLY DRY DURING
THAT SAME PERIOD...BOTH NCEP AND CONSENSUS POPS WOULD KEEP US DRY.
UNDER SUCH A SCENARIO...MAX AND MIN TEMPS ARE TRENDED VERY NEAR LONG
TERM SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BJI STILL HAS A BKN DECK BUT HAS LIFTED TO 3500FT WITH ALL OTHER
TAF SITES SCT TO SKC. VFR NOW THRU THE OVERNIGHT WITH WEST WINDS
GUSTING TOMORROW LATE MORNING TO AFTN INTO THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...JK










000
FXUS63 KFGF 252350
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
650 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CLEARING...DRY LINE NOW EXTENDS FROM WARROAD TO TVF TO FAR TO
FORMAN. ITS SLOW PROGRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING. DEW POINT GRADIENT QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH DEWS NEAR 70
ALONG AND AHEAD AND LOW 50S IN ITS WAKE. CONVECTION HAS INITIATED
ALONG THE LINE AND SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND
N BELTRAMI COUNTIES...CLOSER TO THE UPPER SUPPORT IN MANITOBA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS LOW END PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF THE VALLEY. SPOTTY CONVECTION TRYING TO
ORGANIZE JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER ALONG BOUNDARY AHEAD OF WEAK MID
LEVEL IMPULSE. COULD SEE SOME SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON SO LOW POPS SEEM JUSTIFIED. BY EVENING FRONT SHOULD
BE EAST OF FA OR CLOSE TO SO KEPT THE OVERNIGHT DRY. THERMAL RIDGE
SHIFTS OVER FA HOWEVER WITH FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT MIXING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DIP A TAD BLO AVERAGE.

ON SATURDAY UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS IT
DOES A RESPECTABLE COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE FA.
COLD POOL ENTERS THE NORTHERN FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN THIS AREA. AIRMASS FAIRLY STABLE SO
CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANY T AND TRIMMED BACK TO MOSTLY SHRA. SOUTHERN
FA SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER TO AVERAGE MID SUMMER VALUES
WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. FAIRLY DEEP MIXED
LAYER SO EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER DVL BASIN.

UPPER LOW DROPS SE ACROSS NE MN OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW
POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY NE HALF OF FA AS TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOLLOWS UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH SCT SHRA.

UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. COOLER COLUMN
WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT BLO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

HIGH AND DRY BEST DESCRIBES THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIODS. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE BOTH LOCKED ONTO A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE WESTERN NOAM H5
RIDGE POSITION THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WITH NO CLEAR SIGNS
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS.  THE ECMWF HAS A THREAT OF A ISOLATED SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY
OR EARLY THURSDAY... BUT WITH THE GFS COMING IN MARKEDLY DRY DURING
THAT SAME PERIOD...BOTH NCEP AND CONSENSUS POPS WOULD KEEP US DRY.
UNDER SUCH A SCENARIO...MAX AND MIN TEMPS ARE TRENDED VERY NEAR LONG
TERM SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BJI STILL HAS A BKN DECK BUT HAS LIFTED TO 3500FT WITH ALL OTHER
TAF SITES SCT TO SKC. VFR NOW THRU THE OVERNIGHT WITH WEST WINDS
GUSTING TOMORROW LATE MORNING TO AFTN INTO THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...JK








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000
FXUS63 KBIS 252245
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
545 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 2230 UTC...THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS ON TRACK WITH CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS IN
THE DRY SLOT OF THE DEEP LOW ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS SATURDAY: THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH...AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH DRY AIR
CONTINUING TO PUSH INTO THE STATE. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 40S
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH 50S AND 60S IN THE DEVILS LAKE/JAMES
RIVER BASINS. MEANWHILE A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE
BORDER OF CENTRAL ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.

TONIGHT THE DRY SURFACE AIR WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH
OR SO WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THIS EVENING...BUT
SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CANADA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO THE MANITOBA/MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD (OVER
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON) TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL.
EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WITH LAYERS OF LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND THE COOLER POOL OF AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
FORMATION OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.

IN ADDITION...THE WIND FIELD WILL BE LINKED FROM THE SURFACE UP TO
H800 AND ALLOW NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. LOOKS LIKE A BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY (CRITERIA IS
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 30 MPH OR GUSTS TO 40 MPH) DAY FOR THE SOUTHWEST.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ISSUANCE FOR A WIND
ADVISORY THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

A COOL DAY IN THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOL AND DRY IS THE TREND FOR THE LONG TERM.

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...EJECTS
EASTWARD. THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF HAS THIS CYCLONE EJECTING EASTWARD
INTO MANITOBA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH AND EAST NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DEPART THE AREA AND
TRANSITION INTO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.

MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN AND REMAIN
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL USHER IN DRYER AND COOLER AIR. WITH WEAK FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION AND DRYER AIR ADVECTING
IN...MOISTURE...AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY...SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
AT LEAST UNTIL MIDWEEK. THEREFORE...A MOSTLY DRY WEEK IS EXPECTED.
OCCASIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT
NO WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR KBIS/KJMS/KDIK FOR THE UPCOMING 00
UTC TAF PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS NEAR MVFR CEILINGS AT KISN/KMOT ON
SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ARE
FORECAST AREA WIDE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 252245
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
545 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 2230 UTC...THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS ON TRACK WITH CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS IN
THE DRY SLOT OF THE DEEP LOW ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS SATURDAY: THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH...AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH DRY AIR
CONTINUING TO PUSH INTO THE STATE. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 40S
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH 50S AND 60S IN THE DEVILS LAKE/JAMES
RIVER BASINS. MEANWHILE A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE
BORDER OF CENTRAL ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.

TONIGHT THE DRY SURFACE AIR WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH
OR SO WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THIS EVENING...BUT
SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CANADA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO THE MANITOBA/MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD (OVER
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON) TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL.
EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WITH LAYERS OF LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND THE COOLER POOL OF AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
FORMATION OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.

IN ADDITION...THE WIND FIELD WILL BE LINKED FROM THE SURFACE UP TO
H800 AND ALLOW NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. LOOKS LIKE A BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY (CRITERIA IS
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 30 MPH OR GUSTS TO 40 MPH) DAY FOR THE SOUTHWEST.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ISSUANCE FOR A WIND
ADVISORY THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

A COOL DAY IN THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOL AND DRY IS THE TREND FOR THE LONG TERM.

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...EJECTS
EASTWARD. THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF HAS THIS CYCLONE EJECTING EASTWARD
INTO MANITOBA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH AND EAST NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DEPART THE AREA AND
TRANSITION INTO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.

MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN AND REMAIN
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL USHER IN DRYER AND COOLER AIR. WITH WEAK FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION AND DRYER AIR ADVECTING
IN...MOISTURE...AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY...SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
AT LEAST UNTIL MIDWEEK. THEREFORE...A MOSTLY DRY WEEK IS EXPECTED.
OCCASIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT
NO WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR KBIS/KJMS/KDIK FOR THE UPCOMING 00
UTC TAF PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS NEAR MVFR CEILINGS AT KISN/KMOT ON
SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ARE
FORECAST AREA WIDE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 252245
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
545 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 2230 UTC...THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS ON TRACK WITH CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS IN
THE DRY SLOT OF THE DEEP LOW ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS SATURDAY: THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH...AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH DRY AIR
CONTINUING TO PUSH INTO THE STATE. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 40S
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH 50S AND 60S IN THE DEVILS LAKE/JAMES
RIVER BASINS. MEANWHILE A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE
BORDER OF CENTRAL ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.

TONIGHT THE DRY SURFACE AIR WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH
OR SO WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THIS EVENING...BUT
SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CANADA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO THE MANITOBA/MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD (OVER
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON) TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL.
EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WITH LAYERS OF LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND THE COOLER POOL OF AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
FORMATION OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.

IN ADDITION...THE WIND FIELD WILL BE LINKED FROM THE SURFACE UP TO
H800 AND ALLOW NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. LOOKS LIKE A BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY (CRITERIA IS
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 30 MPH OR GUSTS TO 40 MPH) DAY FOR THE SOUTHWEST.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ISSUANCE FOR A WIND
ADVISORY THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

A COOL DAY IN THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOL AND DRY IS THE TREND FOR THE LONG TERM.

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...EJECTS
EASTWARD. THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF HAS THIS CYCLONE EJECTING EASTWARD
INTO MANITOBA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH AND EAST NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DEPART THE AREA AND
TRANSITION INTO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.

MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN AND REMAIN
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL USHER IN DRYER AND COOLER AIR. WITH WEAK FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION AND DRYER AIR ADVECTING
IN...MOISTURE...AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY...SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
AT LEAST UNTIL MIDWEEK. THEREFORE...A MOSTLY DRY WEEK IS EXPECTED.
OCCASIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT
NO WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR KBIS/KJMS/KDIK FOR THE UPCOMING 00
UTC TAF PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS NEAR MVFR CEILINGS AT KISN/KMOT ON
SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ARE
FORECAST AREA WIDE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 252245
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
545 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 2230 UTC...THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS ON TRACK WITH CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS IN
THE DRY SLOT OF THE DEEP LOW ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS SATURDAY: THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH...AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH DRY AIR
CONTINUING TO PUSH INTO THE STATE. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 40S
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH 50S AND 60S IN THE DEVILS LAKE/JAMES
RIVER BASINS. MEANWHILE A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE
BORDER OF CENTRAL ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.

TONIGHT THE DRY SURFACE AIR WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH
OR SO WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THIS EVENING...BUT
SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CANADA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO THE MANITOBA/MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD (OVER
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON) TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL.
EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WITH LAYERS OF LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND THE COOLER POOL OF AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
FORMATION OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.

IN ADDITION...THE WIND FIELD WILL BE LINKED FROM THE SURFACE UP TO
H800 AND ALLOW NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. LOOKS LIKE A BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY (CRITERIA IS
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 30 MPH OR GUSTS TO 40 MPH) DAY FOR THE SOUTHWEST.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ISSUANCE FOR A WIND
ADVISORY THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

A COOL DAY IN THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOL AND DRY IS THE TREND FOR THE LONG TERM.

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...EJECTS
EASTWARD. THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF HAS THIS CYCLONE EJECTING EASTWARD
INTO MANITOBA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH AND EAST NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DEPART THE AREA AND
TRANSITION INTO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.

MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN AND REMAIN
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL USHER IN DRYER AND COOLER AIR. WITH WEAK FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION AND DRYER AIR ADVECTING
IN...MOISTURE...AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY...SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
AT LEAST UNTIL MIDWEEK. THEREFORE...A MOSTLY DRY WEEK IS EXPECTED.
OCCASIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT
NO WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR KBIS/KJMS/KDIK FOR THE UPCOMING 00
UTC TAF PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS NEAR MVFR CEILINGS AT KISN/KMOT ON
SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ARE
FORECAST AREA WIDE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KFGF 252000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS LOW END PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF THE VALLEY. SPOTTY CONVECTION TRYING TO
ORGANIZE JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER ALONG BOUNDARY AHEAD OF WEAK MID
LEVEL IMPULSE. COULD SEE SOME SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON SO LOW POPS SEEM JUSTIFIED. BY EVENING FRONT SHOULD
BE EAST OF FA OR CLOSE TO SO KEPT THE OVERNIGHT DRY. THERMAL RIDGE
SHIFTS OVER FA HOWEVER WITH FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT MIXING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DIP A TAD BLO AVERAGE.

ON SATURDAY UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS IT
DOES A RESPECTABLE COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE FA.
COLD POOL ENTERS THE NORTHERN FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN THIS AREA. AIRMASS FAIRLY STABLE SO
CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANY T AND TRIMMED BACK TO MOSTLY SHRA. SOUTHERN
FA SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER TO AVERAGE MID SUMMER VALUES
WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. FAIRLY DEEP MIXED
LAYER SO EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER DVL BASIN.

UPPER LOW DROPS SE ACROSS NE MN OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW
POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY NE HALF OF FA AS TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOLLOWS UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH SCT SHRA.

UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. COOLER COLUMN
WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT BLO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

HIGH AND DRY BEST DESCRIBES THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIODS. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE BOTH LOCKED ONTO A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE WESTERN NOAM H5
RIDGE POSITION THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WITH NO CLEAR SIGNS
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS.  THE ECMWF HAS A THREAT OF A ISOLATED SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY
OR EARLY THURSDAY... BUT WITH THE GFS COMING IN MARKEDLY DRY DURING
THAT SAME PERIOD...BOTH NCEP AND CONSENSUS POPS WOULD KEEP US DRY.
UNDER SUCH A SCENARIO...MAX AND MIN TEMPS ARE TRENDED VERY NEAR LONG
TERM SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

RESIDUAL SCT MVFR CIGS FROM EARLY AM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WED
ACROSS NR MN...LIFTING AND ERODING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
ORV THE RRV. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST BY EVENING.
MIDDAY ON SATURDAY WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO SE RN SASK... WITH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY 200.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...GUST






000
FXUS63 KFGF 252000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS LOW END PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF THE VALLEY. SPOTTY CONVECTION TRYING TO
ORGANIZE JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER ALONG BOUNDARY AHEAD OF WEAK MID
LEVEL IMPULSE. COULD SEE SOME SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON SO LOW POPS SEEM JUSTIFIED. BY EVENING FRONT SHOULD
BE EAST OF FA OR CLOSE TO SO KEPT THE OVERNIGHT DRY. THERMAL RIDGE
SHIFTS OVER FA HOWEVER WITH FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT MIXING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DIP A TAD BLO AVERAGE.

ON SATURDAY UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS IT
DOES A RESPECTABLE COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE FA.
COLD POOL ENTERS THE NORTHERN FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN THIS AREA. AIRMASS FAIRLY STABLE SO
CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANY T AND TRIMMED BACK TO MOSTLY SHRA. SOUTHERN
FA SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER TO AVERAGE MID SUMMER VALUES
WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. FAIRLY DEEP MIXED
LAYER SO EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER DVL BASIN.

UPPER LOW DROPS SE ACROSS NE MN OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW
POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY NE HALF OF FA AS TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOLLOWS UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH SCT SHRA.

UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. COOLER COLUMN
WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT BLO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

HIGH AND DRY BEST DESCRIBES THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIODS. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE BOTH LOCKED ONTO A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE WESTERN NOAM H5
RIDGE POSITION THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WITH NO CLEAR SIGNS
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS.  THE ECMWF HAS A THREAT OF A ISOLATED SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY
OR EARLY THURSDAY... BUT WITH THE GFS COMING IN MARKEDLY DRY DURING
THAT SAME PERIOD...BOTH NCEP AND CONSENSUS POPS WOULD KEEP US DRY.
UNDER SUCH A SCENARIO...MAX AND MIN TEMPS ARE TRENDED VERY NEAR LONG
TERM SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

RESIDUAL SCT MVFR CIGS FROM EARLY AM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WED
ACROSS NR MN...LIFTING AND ERODING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
ORV THE RRV. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST BY EVENING.
MIDDAY ON SATURDAY WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO SE RN SASK... WITH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY 200.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...GUST






000
FXUS63 KFGF 252000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS LOW END PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF THE VALLEY. SPOTTY CONVECTION TRYING TO
ORGANIZE JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER ALONG BOUNDARY AHEAD OF WEAK MID
LEVEL IMPULSE. COULD SEE SOME SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON SO LOW POPS SEEM JUSTIFIED. BY EVENING FRONT SHOULD
BE EAST OF FA OR CLOSE TO SO KEPT THE OVERNIGHT DRY. THERMAL RIDGE
SHIFTS OVER FA HOWEVER WITH FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT MIXING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DIP A TAD BLO AVERAGE.

ON SATURDAY UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS IT
DOES A RESPECTABLE COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE FA.
COLD POOL ENTERS THE NORTHERN FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN THIS AREA. AIRMASS FAIRLY STABLE SO
CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANY T AND TRIMMED BACK TO MOSTLY SHRA. SOUTHERN
FA SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER TO AVERAGE MID SUMMER VALUES
WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. FAIRLY DEEP MIXED
LAYER SO EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER DVL BASIN.

UPPER LOW DROPS SE ACROSS NE MN OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW
POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY NE HALF OF FA AS TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOLLOWS UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH SCT SHRA.

UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. COOLER COLUMN
WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT BLO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

HIGH AND DRY BEST DESCRIBES THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIODS. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE BOTH LOCKED ONTO A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE WESTERN NOAM H5
RIDGE POSITION THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WITH NO CLEAR SIGNS
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS.  THE ECMWF HAS A THREAT OF A ISOLATED SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY
OR EARLY THURSDAY... BUT WITH THE GFS COMING IN MARKEDLY DRY DURING
THAT SAME PERIOD...BOTH NCEP AND CONSENSUS POPS WOULD KEEP US DRY.
UNDER SUCH A SCENARIO...MAX AND MIN TEMPS ARE TRENDED VERY NEAR LONG
TERM SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

RESIDUAL SCT MVFR CIGS FROM EARLY AM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WED
ACROSS NR MN...LIFTING AND ERODING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
ORV THE RRV. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST BY EVENING.
MIDDAY ON SATURDAY WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO SE RN SASK... WITH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY 200.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...GUST






000
FXUS63 KFGF 252000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS LOW END PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF THE VALLEY. SPOTTY CONVECTION TRYING TO
ORGANIZE JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER ALONG BOUNDARY AHEAD OF WEAK MID
LEVEL IMPULSE. COULD SEE SOME SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON SO LOW POPS SEEM JUSTIFIED. BY EVENING FRONT SHOULD
BE EAST OF FA OR CLOSE TO SO KEPT THE OVERNIGHT DRY. THERMAL RIDGE
SHIFTS OVER FA HOWEVER WITH FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT MIXING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DIP A TAD BLO AVERAGE.

ON SATURDAY UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS IT
DOES A RESPECTABLE COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE FA.
COLD POOL ENTERS THE NORTHERN FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN THIS AREA. AIRMASS FAIRLY STABLE SO
CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANY T AND TRIMMED BACK TO MOSTLY SHRA. SOUTHERN
FA SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER TO AVERAGE MID SUMMER VALUES
WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. FAIRLY DEEP MIXED
LAYER SO EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER DVL BASIN.

UPPER LOW DROPS SE ACROSS NE MN OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW
POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY NE HALF OF FA AS TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOLLOWS UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH SCT SHRA.

UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. COOLER COLUMN
WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT BLO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

HIGH AND DRY BEST DESCRIBES THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIODS. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE BOTH LOCKED ONTO A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE WESTERN NOAM H5
RIDGE POSITION THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WITH NO CLEAR SIGNS
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS.  THE ECMWF HAS A THREAT OF A ISOLATED SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY
OR EARLY THURSDAY... BUT WITH THE GFS COMING IN MARKEDLY DRY DURING
THAT SAME PERIOD...BOTH NCEP AND CONSENSUS POPS WOULD KEEP US DRY.
UNDER SUCH A SCENARIO...MAX AND MIN TEMPS ARE TRENDED VERY NEAR LONG
TERM SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

RESIDUAL SCT MVFR CIGS FROM EARLY AM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WED
ACROSS NR MN...LIFTING AND ERODING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
ORV THE RRV. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST BY EVENING.
MIDDAY ON SATURDAY WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO SE RN SASK... WITH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY 200.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...GUST






000
FXUS63 KBIS 251948
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
248 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS SATURDAY: THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH...AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH DRY AIR
CONTINUING TO PUSH INTO THE STATE. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 40S
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH 50S AND 60S IN THE DEVILS LAKE/JAMES
RIVER BASINS. MEANWHILE A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE
BORDER OF CENTRAL ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.

TONIGHT THE DRY SURFACE AIR WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH
OR SO WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THIS EVENING...BUT
SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CANADA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO THE MANITOBA/MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD (OVER
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON) TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL.
EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WITH LAYERS OF LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND THE COOLER POOL OF AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
FORMATION OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.

IN ADDITION...THE WIND FIELD WILL BE LINKED FROM THE SURFACE UP TO
H800 AND ALLOW NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. LOOKS LIKE A BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY (CRITERIA IS
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 30 MPH OR GUSTS TO 40 MPH) DAY FOR THE SOUTHWEST.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ISSUANCE FOR A WIND
ADVISORY THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

A COOL DAY IN THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOL AND DRY IS THE TREND FOR THE LONG TERM.

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...EJECTS
EASTWARD. THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF HAS THIS CYCLONE EJECTING EASTWARD
INTO MANITOBA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH AND EAST NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DEPART THE AREA AND
TRANSITION INTO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.

MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN AND REMAIN
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL USHER IN DRYER AND COOLER AIR. WITH WEAK FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION AND DRYER AIR ADVECTING
IN...MOISTURE...AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY...SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
AT LEAST UNTIL MIDWEEK. THEREFORE...A MOSTLY DRY WEEK IS EXPECTED.
OCCASIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT
NO WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MVFR/VFR CIGS MOVING OUT OF THE KJMS AREA AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF
CIGS OUT AT 18Z. OTHERWISE SKC WILL DOMINATE THE TERMINALS THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z...WHEN NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KISN/KMOT MAY BE IMPACTED
BY SCATTERED CLOUDS OF VFR HEIGHT...BECOMING BROKEN AROUND 13Z-14Z.
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25KT WILL SUBSIDE BY 02Z
SATURDAY...THEN WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFT 12Z SATURDAY WITH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER 25 KNOTS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 251948
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
248 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS SATURDAY: THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH...AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH DRY AIR
CONTINUING TO PUSH INTO THE STATE. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 40S
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH 50S AND 60S IN THE DEVILS LAKE/JAMES
RIVER BASINS. MEANWHILE A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE
BORDER OF CENTRAL ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.

TONIGHT THE DRY SURFACE AIR WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH
OR SO WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THIS EVENING...BUT
SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CANADA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO THE MANITOBA/MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD (OVER
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON) TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL.
EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WITH LAYERS OF LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND THE COOLER POOL OF AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
FORMATION OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.

IN ADDITION...THE WIND FIELD WILL BE LINKED FROM THE SURFACE UP TO
H800 AND ALLOW NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. LOOKS LIKE A BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY (CRITERIA IS
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 30 MPH OR GUSTS TO 40 MPH) DAY FOR THE SOUTHWEST.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ISSUANCE FOR A WIND
ADVISORY THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

A COOL DAY IN THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOL AND DRY IS THE TREND FOR THE LONG TERM.

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...EJECTS
EASTWARD. THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF HAS THIS CYCLONE EJECTING EASTWARD
INTO MANITOBA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH AND EAST NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DEPART THE AREA AND
TRANSITION INTO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.

MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN AND REMAIN
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL USHER IN DRYER AND COOLER AIR. WITH WEAK FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION AND DRYER AIR ADVECTING
IN...MOISTURE...AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY...SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
AT LEAST UNTIL MIDWEEK. THEREFORE...A MOSTLY DRY WEEK IS EXPECTED.
OCCASIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT
NO WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MVFR/VFR CIGS MOVING OUT OF THE KJMS AREA AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF
CIGS OUT AT 18Z. OTHERWISE SKC WILL DOMINATE THE TERMINALS THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z...WHEN NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KISN/KMOT MAY BE IMPACTED
BY SCATTERED CLOUDS OF VFR HEIGHT...BECOMING BROKEN AROUND 13Z-14Z.
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25KT WILL SUBSIDE BY 02Z
SATURDAY...THEN WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFT 12Z SATURDAY WITH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER 25 KNOTS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV









000
FXUS63 KFGF 251747
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1247 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MAIN CHALLENGES REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE T CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ORIENTED ALONG VALLEY. AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY AIRMASS MODESTLY UNSTABLE ALONG WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES. WATER VAPOR INDICATING A POSSIBLE WEAK IMPULSE
TRACKING ALONG THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER. SO WHILE FORCING WEAK WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS HAVE HELD AROUND AND
THICKER THAN EXPECTED. BASED ON TIMING OF CLOUDS WORKING EAST HAD
TO LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NO CHANGES NECESSARY THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS DISSIPATED AS THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED
OFF TO THE EAST AND HAS BEEN FEEDING THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
FURTHER SOUTH OVER MN. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO REDEVELOP
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...AND THERE IS STILL THE TROUGH AXIS THAT
IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20-30 POPS
EAST OF THE WIND SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA BUT A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN PRODUCING STORMS OVER WESTERN ND
AND SOME OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOVING INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA
AND WEAKENING. THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS INTERACTED WITH SOME
STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE LOW LEVEL JET TO SET OFF SOME
STORMS OVER EASTERN SD AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND. THE STORMS WERE
JUST UNDER SEVERE LIMITS AT TIMES BUT HAVE WEAKENED IN THE PAST
FEW HOURS. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THINK
THAT THE ACTIVITY OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN.

TODAY...THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER SD WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST...PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA. TIMING
OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE KEY...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME CAPE VALUES OF 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE QUESTION
WILL BE IF THE CAP CAN BE OVERCOME WITH MOST OF THE BEST FORCING
OFF TO THE EAST. THE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE PAST OUR COUNTIES BEFORE
PEAK HEATING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME 20-40 POPS GOING MAINLY
OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
STRENGTH FOR NOW.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SASK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY TOMORROW. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND MOVE EAST...THIS
TIME DROPPING A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY FOR SATURDAY BUT FOR NOW WENT LOW 70S IN THE NORTH
TO LOW 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS MAINLY HAVE PRECIP MOVING IN
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRETTY
WEAK...UNDER 1000 J/KG SO SEVERE THREAT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. EVEN WITH THE SFC HIGH...WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE AREA
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE THE LOWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE COOL WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
START THE WEEK. A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID-WEEK TO NEAR AVERAGE. MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY...WITH ANY
LOW MID-WEEK PRECIP CHANCES DEPENDENT ON LOW PREDICTABILITY LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS RIDING OVER THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

RESIDUAL SCT MVFR CIGS FROM EARLY AM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WED
ACROSS NR MN...LIFTING AND ERODING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
ORV THE RRV. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST BY EVENING.
MIDDAY ON SATURDAY WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO SE RN SASK... WITH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY 200.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GUST








000
FXUS63 KFGF 251747
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1247 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MAIN CHALLENGES REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE T CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ORIENTED ALONG VALLEY. AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY AIRMASS MODESTLY UNSTABLE ALONG WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES. WATER VAPOR INDICATING A POSSIBLE WEAK IMPULSE
TRACKING ALONG THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER. SO WHILE FORCING WEAK WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS HAVE HELD AROUND AND
THICKER THAN EXPECTED. BASED ON TIMING OF CLOUDS WORKING EAST HAD
TO LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NO CHANGES NECESSARY THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS DISSIPATED AS THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED
OFF TO THE EAST AND HAS BEEN FEEDING THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
FURTHER SOUTH OVER MN. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO REDEVELOP
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...AND THERE IS STILL THE TROUGH AXIS THAT
IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20-30 POPS
EAST OF THE WIND SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA BUT A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN PRODUCING STORMS OVER WESTERN ND
AND SOME OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOVING INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA
AND WEAKENING. THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS INTERACTED WITH SOME
STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE LOW LEVEL JET TO SET OFF SOME
STORMS OVER EASTERN SD AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND. THE STORMS WERE
JUST UNDER SEVERE LIMITS AT TIMES BUT HAVE WEAKENED IN THE PAST
FEW HOURS. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THINK
THAT THE ACTIVITY OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN.

TODAY...THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER SD WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST...PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA. TIMING
OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE KEY...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME CAPE VALUES OF 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE QUESTION
WILL BE IF THE CAP CAN BE OVERCOME WITH MOST OF THE BEST FORCING
OFF TO THE EAST. THE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE PAST OUR COUNTIES BEFORE
PEAK HEATING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME 20-40 POPS GOING MAINLY
OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
STRENGTH FOR NOW.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SASK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY TOMORROW. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND MOVE EAST...THIS
TIME DROPPING A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY FOR SATURDAY BUT FOR NOW WENT LOW 70S IN THE NORTH
TO LOW 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS MAINLY HAVE PRECIP MOVING IN
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRETTY
WEAK...UNDER 1000 J/KG SO SEVERE THREAT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. EVEN WITH THE SFC HIGH...WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE AREA
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE THE LOWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE COOL WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
START THE WEEK. A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID-WEEK TO NEAR AVERAGE. MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY...WITH ANY
LOW MID-WEEK PRECIP CHANCES DEPENDENT ON LOW PREDICTABILITY LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS RIDING OVER THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

RESIDUAL SCT MVFR CIGS FROM EARLY AM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WED
ACROSS NR MN...LIFTING AND ERODING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
ORV THE RRV. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST BY EVENING.
MIDDAY ON SATURDAY WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO SE RN SASK... WITH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY 200.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GUST








000
FXUS63 KFGF 251747
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1247 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MAIN CHALLENGES REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE T CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ORIENTED ALONG VALLEY. AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY AIRMASS MODESTLY UNSTABLE ALONG WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES. WATER VAPOR INDICATING A POSSIBLE WEAK IMPULSE
TRACKING ALONG THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER. SO WHILE FORCING WEAK WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS HAVE HELD AROUND AND
THICKER THAN EXPECTED. BASED ON TIMING OF CLOUDS WORKING EAST HAD
TO LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NO CHANGES NECESSARY THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS DISSIPATED AS THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED
OFF TO THE EAST AND HAS BEEN FEEDING THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
FURTHER SOUTH OVER MN. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO REDEVELOP
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...AND THERE IS STILL THE TROUGH AXIS THAT
IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20-30 POPS
EAST OF THE WIND SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA BUT A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN PRODUCING STORMS OVER WESTERN ND
AND SOME OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOVING INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA
AND WEAKENING. THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS INTERACTED WITH SOME
STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE LOW LEVEL JET TO SET OFF SOME
STORMS OVER EASTERN SD AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND. THE STORMS WERE
JUST UNDER SEVERE LIMITS AT TIMES BUT HAVE WEAKENED IN THE PAST
FEW HOURS. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THINK
THAT THE ACTIVITY OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN.

TODAY...THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER SD WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST...PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA. TIMING
OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE KEY...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME CAPE VALUES OF 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE QUESTION
WILL BE IF THE CAP CAN BE OVERCOME WITH MOST OF THE BEST FORCING
OFF TO THE EAST. THE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE PAST OUR COUNTIES BEFORE
PEAK HEATING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME 20-40 POPS GOING MAINLY
OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
STRENGTH FOR NOW.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SASK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY TOMORROW. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND MOVE EAST...THIS
TIME DROPPING A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY FOR SATURDAY BUT FOR NOW WENT LOW 70S IN THE NORTH
TO LOW 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS MAINLY HAVE PRECIP MOVING IN
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRETTY
WEAK...UNDER 1000 J/KG SO SEVERE THREAT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. EVEN WITH THE SFC HIGH...WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE AREA
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE THE LOWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE COOL WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
START THE WEEK. A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID-WEEK TO NEAR AVERAGE. MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY...WITH ANY
LOW MID-WEEK PRECIP CHANCES DEPENDENT ON LOW PREDICTABILITY LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS RIDING OVER THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

RESIDUAL SCT MVFR CIGS FROM EARLY AM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WED
ACROSS NR MN...LIFTING AND ERODING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
ORV THE RRV. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST BY EVENING.
MIDDAY ON SATURDAY WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO SE RN SASK... WITH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY 200.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GUST








000
FXUS63 KFGF 251747
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1247 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MAIN CHALLENGES REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE T CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ORIENTED ALONG VALLEY. AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY AIRMASS MODESTLY UNSTABLE ALONG WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES. WATER VAPOR INDICATING A POSSIBLE WEAK IMPULSE
TRACKING ALONG THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER. SO WHILE FORCING WEAK WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS HAVE HELD AROUND AND
THICKER THAN EXPECTED. BASED ON TIMING OF CLOUDS WORKING EAST HAD
TO LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NO CHANGES NECESSARY THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS DISSIPATED AS THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED
OFF TO THE EAST AND HAS BEEN FEEDING THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
FURTHER SOUTH OVER MN. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO REDEVELOP
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...AND THERE IS STILL THE TROUGH AXIS THAT
IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20-30 POPS
EAST OF THE WIND SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA BUT A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN PRODUCING STORMS OVER WESTERN ND
AND SOME OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOVING INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA
AND WEAKENING. THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS INTERACTED WITH SOME
STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE LOW LEVEL JET TO SET OFF SOME
STORMS OVER EASTERN SD AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND. THE STORMS WERE
JUST UNDER SEVERE LIMITS AT TIMES BUT HAVE WEAKENED IN THE PAST
FEW HOURS. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THINK
THAT THE ACTIVITY OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN.

TODAY...THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER SD WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST...PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA. TIMING
OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE KEY...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME CAPE VALUES OF 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE QUESTION
WILL BE IF THE CAP CAN BE OVERCOME WITH MOST OF THE BEST FORCING
OFF TO THE EAST. THE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE PAST OUR COUNTIES BEFORE
PEAK HEATING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME 20-40 POPS GOING MAINLY
OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
STRENGTH FOR NOW.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SASK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY TOMORROW. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND MOVE EAST...THIS
TIME DROPPING A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY FOR SATURDAY BUT FOR NOW WENT LOW 70S IN THE NORTH
TO LOW 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS MAINLY HAVE PRECIP MOVING IN
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRETTY
WEAK...UNDER 1000 J/KG SO SEVERE THREAT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. EVEN WITH THE SFC HIGH...WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE AREA
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE THE LOWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE COOL WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
START THE WEEK. A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID-WEEK TO NEAR AVERAGE. MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY...WITH ANY
LOW MID-WEEK PRECIP CHANCES DEPENDENT ON LOW PREDICTABILITY LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS RIDING OVER THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

RESIDUAL SCT MVFR CIGS FROM EARLY AM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WED
ACROSS NR MN...LIFTING AND ERODING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
ORV THE RRV. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST BY EVENING.
MIDDAY ON SATURDAY WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO SE RN SASK... WITH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY 200.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GUST








000
FXUS63 KBIS 251737
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CLOUDS WERE MOVING OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS REMAINED ALONG OR EAST OF
CARRINGTON/BISMARCK/LINTON/FORT YATES LINE...AND THIS CLOUD SHIELD
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND/OR ERODING FROM THE WEST AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
REST OF FORECAST FOR TODAY ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THESE
HAVE BEEN ERODING THROUGH THE MORNING. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH CENTRAL FOR A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR SHERWOOD
TO JUST EAST OF MINOT AND SOUTH TO NEAR LINTON. WEAK PRESSURE
FALLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP INDICATES POCKETS OF LOWER CLOUDS BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT STEADILY MOVING EAST. THE HRRR CEILING FORECAST HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND ALSO PROGRESSIVELY MOVES
THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BY 14Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALBEIT A FEW DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BUT THESE
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THUS EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AS
WESTERLY WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN AREA OF SHOWERS SLIDING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA...BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THUS DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SASK THROUGH
MINNESOTA EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN US. AS THIS PROCESS TAKES PLACE THE LOW WILL USHER IN
COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE AIR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH
AND EAST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND
COOLER WITH HIGHS AS COOL AS THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...AND 70S SOUTH AND WEST. EVENTUALLY A HIGH
AMPLITUDE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A SLIGHTLY
ANTICYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MVFR/VFR CIGS MOVING OUT OF THE KJMS AREA AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF
CIGS OUT AT 18Z. OTHERWISE SKC WILL DOMINATE THE TERMINALS THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z...WHEN NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KISN/KMOT MAY BE IMPACTED
BY SCATTERED CLOUDS OF VFR HEIGHT...BECOMING BROKEN AROUND 13Z-14Z.
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25KT WILL SUBSIDE BY 02Z
SATURDAY...THEN WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFT 12Z SATURDAY WITH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER 25 KNOTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 251737
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CLOUDS WERE MOVING OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS REMAINED ALONG OR EAST OF
CARRINGTON/BISMARCK/LINTON/FORT YATES LINE...AND THIS CLOUD SHIELD
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND/OR ERODING FROM THE WEST AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
REST OF FORECAST FOR TODAY ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THESE
HAVE BEEN ERODING THROUGH THE MORNING. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH CENTRAL FOR A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR SHERWOOD
TO JUST EAST OF MINOT AND SOUTH TO NEAR LINTON. WEAK PRESSURE
FALLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP INDICATES POCKETS OF LOWER CLOUDS BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT STEADILY MOVING EAST. THE HRRR CEILING FORECAST HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND ALSO PROGRESSIVELY MOVES
THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BY 14Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALBEIT A FEW DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BUT THESE
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THUS EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AS
WESTERLY WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN AREA OF SHOWERS SLIDING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA...BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THUS DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SASK THROUGH
MINNESOTA EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN US. AS THIS PROCESS TAKES PLACE THE LOW WILL USHER IN
COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE AIR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH
AND EAST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND
COOLER WITH HIGHS AS COOL AS THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...AND 70S SOUTH AND WEST. EVENTUALLY A HIGH
AMPLITUDE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A SLIGHTLY
ANTICYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MVFR/VFR CIGS MOVING OUT OF THE KJMS AREA AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF
CIGS OUT AT 18Z. OTHERWISE SKC WILL DOMINATE THE TERMINALS THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z...WHEN NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KISN/KMOT MAY BE IMPACTED
BY SCATTERED CLOUDS OF VFR HEIGHT...BECOMING BROKEN AROUND 13Z-14Z.
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25KT WILL SUBSIDE BY 02Z
SATURDAY...THEN WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFT 12Z SATURDAY WITH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER 25 KNOTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 251737
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CLOUDS WERE MOVING OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS REMAINED ALONG OR EAST OF
CARRINGTON/BISMARCK/LINTON/FORT YATES LINE...AND THIS CLOUD SHIELD
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND/OR ERODING FROM THE WEST AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
REST OF FORECAST FOR TODAY ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THESE
HAVE BEEN ERODING THROUGH THE MORNING. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH CENTRAL FOR A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR SHERWOOD
TO JUST EAST OF MINOT AND SOUTH TO NEAR LINTON. WEAK PRESSURE
FALLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP INDICATES POCKETS OF LOWER CLOUDS BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT STEADILY MOVING EAST. THE HRRR CEILING FORECAST HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND ALSO PROGRESSIVELY MOVES
THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BY 14Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALBEIT A FEW DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BUT THESE
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THUS EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AS
WESTERLY WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN AREA OF SHOWERS SLIDING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA...BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THUS DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SASK THROUGH
MINNESOTA EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN US. AS THIS PROCESS TAKES PLACE THE LOW WILL USHER IN
COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE AIR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH
AND EAST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND
COOLER WITH HIGHS AS COOL AS THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...AND 70S SOUTH AND WEST. EVENTUALLY A HIGH
AMPLITUDE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A SLIGHTLY
ANTICYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MVFR/VFR CIGS MOVING OUT OF THE KJMS AREA AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF
CIGS OUT AT 18Z. OTHERWISE SKC WILL DOMINATE THE TERMINALS THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z...WHEN NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KISN/KMOT MAY BE IMPACTED
BY SCATTERED CLOUDS OF VFR HEIGHT...BECOMING BROKEN AROUND 13Z-14Z.
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25KT WILL SUBSIDE BY 02Z
SATURDAY...THEN WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFT 12Z SATURDAY WITH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER 25 KNOTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 251737
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CLOUDS WERE MOVING OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS REMAINED ALONG OR EAST OF
CARRINGTON/BISMARCK/LINTON/FORT YATES LINE...AND THIS CLOUD SHIELD
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND/OR ERODING FROM THE WEST AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
REST OF FORECAST FOR TODAY ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THESE
HAVE BEEN ERODING THROUGH THE MORNING. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH CENTRAL FOR A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR SHERWOOD
TO JUST EAST OF MINOT AND SOUTH TO NEAR LINTON. WEAK PRESSURE
FALLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP INDICATES POCKETS OF LOWER CLOUDS BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT STEADILY MOVING EAST. THE HRRR CEILING FORECAST HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND ALSO PROGRESSIVELY MOVES
THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BY 14Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALBEIT A FEW DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BUT THESE
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THUS EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AS
WESTERLY WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN AREA OF SHOWERS SLIDING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA...BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THUS DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SASK THROUGH
MINNESOTA EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN US. AS THIS PROCESS TAKES PLACE THE LOW WILL USHER IN
COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE AIR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH
AND EAST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND
COOLER WITH HIGHS AS COOL AS THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...AND 70S SOUTH AND WEST. EVENTUALLY A HIGH
AMPLITUDE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A SLIGHTLY
ANTICYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MVFR/VFR CIGS MOVING OUT OF THE KJMS AREA AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF
CIGS OUT AT 18Z. OTHERWISE SKC WILL DOMINATE THE TERMINALS THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z...WHEN NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KISN/KMOT MAY BE IMPACTED
BY SCATTERED CLOUDS OF VFR HEIGHT...BECOMING BROKEN AROUND 13Z-14Z.
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25KT WILL SUBSIDE BY 02Z
SATURDAY...THEN WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFT 12Z SATURDAY WITH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER 25 KNOTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 251438
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
938 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS REMAINED ALONG OR EAST OF
CARRINGTON/BISMARCK/LINTON/FORT YATES LINE...AND THIS CLOUD SHIELD
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND/OR ERODING FROM THE WEST AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
REST OF FORECAST FOR TODAY ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THESE
HAVE BEEN ERODING THROUGH THE MORNING. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH CENTRAL FOR A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR SHERWOOD
TO JUST EAST OF MINOT AND SOUTH TO NEAR LINTON. WEAK PRESSURE
FALLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP INDICATES POCKETS OF LOWER CLOUDS BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT STEADILY MOVING EAST. THE HRRR CEILING FORECAST HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND ALSO PROGRESSIVELY MOVES
THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BY 14Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALBEIT A FEW DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BUT THESE
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THUS EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AS
WESTERLY WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN AREA OF SHOWERS SLIDING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA...BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THUS DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SASK THROUGH
MINNESOTA EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN US. AS THIS PROCESS TAKES PLACE THE LOW WILL USHER IN
COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE AIR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH
AND EAST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND
COOLER WITH HIGHS AS COOL AS THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...AND 70S SOUTH AND WEST. EVENTUALLY A HIGH
AMPLITUDE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A SLIGHTLY
ANTICYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A NARROW LINE OF LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL HOVER FROM KMOT TO KBIS
THROUGH 13Z FRIDAY...AND OVER KJMS UNTIL 16Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE SKC
WILL DOMINATE THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25KT WILL SUBSIDE BY 02Z SATURDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 251438
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
938 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS REMAINED ALONG OR EAST OF
CARRINGTON/BISMARCK/LINTON/FORT YATES LINE...AND THIS CLOUD SHIELD
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND/OR ERODING FROM THE WEST AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
REST OF FORECAST FOR TODAY ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THESE
HAVE BEEN ERODING THROUGH THE MORNING. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH CENTRAL FOR A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR SHERWOOD
TO JUST EAST OF MINOT AND SOUTH TO NEAR LINTON. WEAK PRESSURE
FALLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP INDICATES POCKETS OF LOWER CLOUDS BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT STEADILY MOVING EAST. THE HRRR CEILING FORECAST HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND ALSO PROGRESSIVELY MOVES
THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BY 14Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALBEIT A FEW DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BUT THESE
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THUS EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AS
WESTERLY WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN AREA OF SHOWERS SLIDING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA...BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THUS DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SASK THROUGH
MINNESOTA EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN US. AS THIS PROCESS TAKES PLACE THE LOW WILL USHER IN
COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE AIR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH
AND EAST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND
COOLER WITH HIGHS AS COOL AS THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...AND 70S SOUTH AND WEST. EVENTUALLY A HIGH
AMPLITUDE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A SLIGHTLY
ANTICYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A NARROW LINE OF LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL HOVER FROM KMOT TO KBIS
THROUGH 13Z FRIDAY...AND OVER KJMS UNTIL 16Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE SKC
WILL DOMINATE THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25KT WILL SUBSIDE BY 02Z SATURDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 251438
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
938 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS REMAINED ALONG OR EAST OF
CARRINGTON/BISMARCK/LINTON/FORT YATES LINE...AND THIS CLOUD SHIELD
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND/OR ERODING FROM THE WEST AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
REST OF FORECAST FOR TODAY ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THESE
HAVE BEEN ERODING THROUGH THE MORNING. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH CENTRAL FOR A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR SHERWOOD
TO JUST EAST OF MINOT AND SOUTH TO NEAR LINTON. WEAK PRESSURE
FALLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP INDICATES POCKETS OF LOWER CLOUDS BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT STEADILY MOVING EAST. THE HRRR CEILING FORECAST HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND ALSO PROGRESSIVELY MOVES
THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BY 14Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALBEIT A FEW DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BUT THESE
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THUS EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AS
WESTERLY WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN AREA OF SHOWERS SLIDING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA...BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THUS DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SASK THROUGH
MINNESOTA EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN US. AS THIS PROCESS TAKES PLACE THE LOW WILL USHER IN
COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE AIR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH
AND EAST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND
COOLER WITH HIGHS AS COOL AS THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...AND 70S SOUTH AND WEST. EVENTUALLY A HIGH
AMPLITUDE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A SLIGHTLY
ANTICYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A NARROW LINE OF LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL HOVER FROM KMOT TO KBIS
THROUGH 13Z FRIDAY...AND OVER KJMS UNTIL 16Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE SKC
WILL DOMINATE THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25KT WILL SUBSIDE BY 02Z SATURDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 251438
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
938 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS REMAINED ALONG OR EAST OF
CARRINGTON/BISMARCK/LINTON/FORT YATES LINE...AND THIS CLOUD SHIELD
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND/OR ERODING FROM THE WEST AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
REST OF FORECAST FOR TODAY ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THESE
HAVE BEEN ERODING THROUGH THE MORNING. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH CENTRAL FOR A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR SHERWOOD
TO JUST EAST OF MINOT AND SOUTH TO NEAR LINTON. WEAK PRESSURE
FALLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP INDICATES POCKETS OF LOWER CLOUDS BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT STEADILY MOVING EAST. THE HRRR CEILING FORECAST HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND ALSO PROGRESSIVELY MOVES
THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BY 14Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALBEIT A FEW DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BUT THESE
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THUS EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AS
WESTERLY WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN AREA OF SHOWERS SLIDING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA...BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THUS DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SASK THROUGH
MINNESOTA EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN US. AS THIS PROCESS TAKES PLACE THE LOW WILL USHER IN
COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE AIR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH
AND EAST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND
COOLER WITH HIGHS AS COOL AS THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...AND 70S SOUTH AND WEST. EVENTUALLY A HIGH
AMPLITUDE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A SLIGHTLY
ANTICYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A NARROW LINE OF LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL HOVER FROM KMOT TO KBIS
THROUGH 13Z FRIDAY...AND OVER KJMS UNTIL 16Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE SKC
WILL DOMINATE THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25KT WILL SUBSIDE BY 02Z SATURDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 251431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
931 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NO CHANGES NECESSARY THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS DISSIPATED AS THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED
OFF TO THE EAST AND HAS BEEN FEEDING THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
FURTHER SOUTH OVER MN. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO REDEVELOP
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...AND THERE IS STILL THE TROUGH AXIS THAT
IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20-30 POPS
EAST OF THE WIND SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA BUT A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN PRODUCING STORMS OVER WESTERN ND
AND SOME OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOVING INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA
AND WEAKENING. THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS INTERACTED WITH SOME
STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE LOW LEVEL JET TO SET OFF SOME
STORMS OVER EASTERN SD AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND. THE STORMS WERE
JUST UNDER SEVERE LIMITS AT TIMES BUT HAVE WEAKENED IN THE PAST
FEW HOURS. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THINK
THAT THE ACTIVITY OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN.

TODAY...THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER SD WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST...PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA. TIMING
OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE KEY...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME CAPE VALUES OF 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE QUESTION
WILL BE IF THE CAP CAN BE OVERCOME WITH MOST OF THE BEST FORCING
OFF TO THE EAST. THE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE PAST OUR COUNTIES BEFORE
PEAK HEATING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME 20-40 POPS GOING MAINLY
OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
STRENGTH FOR NOW.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SASK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY TOMORROW. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND MOVE EAST...THIS
TIME DROPPING A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY FOR SATURDAY BUT FOR NOW WENT LOW 70S IN THE NORTH
TO LOW 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS MAINLY HAVE PRECIP MOVING IN
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRETTY
WEAK...UNDER 1000 J/KG SO SEVERE THREAT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. EVEN WITH THE SFC HIGH...WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE AREA
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE THE LOWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE COOL WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
START THE WEEK. A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID-WEEK TO NEAR AVERAGE. MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY...WITH ANY
LOW MID-WEEK PRECIP CHANCES DEPENDENT ON LOW PREDICTABILITY LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS RIDING OVER THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 251431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
931 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NO CHANGES NECESSARY THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS DISSIPATED AS THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED
OFF TO THE EAST AND HAS BEEN FEEDING THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
FURTHER SOUTH OVER MN. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO REDEVELOP
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...AND THERE IS STILL THE TROUGH AXIS THAT
IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20-30 POPS
EAST OF THE WIND SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA BUT A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN PRODUCING STORMS OVER WESTERN ND
AND SOME OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOVING INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA
AND WEAKENING. THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS INTERACTED WITH SOME
STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE LOW LEVEL JET TO SET OFF SOME
STORMS OVER EASTERN SD AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND. THE STORMS WERE
JUST UNDER SEVERE LIMITS AT TIMES BUT HAVE WEAKENED IN THE PAST
FEW HOURS. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THINK
THAT THE ACTIVITY OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN.

TODAY...THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER SD WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST...PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA. TIMING
OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE KEY...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME CAPE VALUES OF 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE QUESTION
WILL BE IF THE CAP CAN BE OVERCOME WITH MOST OF THE BEST FORCING
OFF TO THE EAST. THE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE PAST OUR COUNTIES BEFORE
PEAK HEATING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME 20-40 POPS GOING MAINLY
OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
STRENGTH FOR NOW.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SASK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY TOMORROW. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND MOVE EAST...THIS
TIME DROPPING A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY FOR SATURDAY BUT FOR NOW WENT LOW 70S IN THE NORTH
TO LOW 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS MAINLY HAVE PRECIP MOVING IN
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRETTY
WEAK...UNDER 1000 J/KG SO SEVERE THREAT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. EVEN WITH THE SFC HIGH...WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE AREA
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE THE LOWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE COOL WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
START THE WEEK. A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID-WEEK TO NEAR AVERAGE. MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY...WITH ANY
LOW MID-WEEK PRECIP CHANCES DEPENDENT ON LOW PREDICTABILITY LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS RIDING OVER THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 251431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
931 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NO CHANGES NECESSARY THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS DISSIPATED AS THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED
OFF TO THE EAST AND HAS BEEN FEEDING THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
FURTHER SOUTH OVER MN. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO REDEVELOP
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...AND THERE IS STILL THE TROUGH AXIS THAT
IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20-30 POPS
EAST OF THE WIND SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA BUT A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN PRODUCING STORMS OVER WESTERN ND
AND SOME OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOVING INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA
AND WEAKENING. THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS INTERACTED WITH SOME
STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE LOW LEVEL JET TO SET OFF SOME
STORMS OVER EASTERN SD AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND. THE STORMS WERE
JUST UNDER SEVERE LIMITS AT TIMES BUT HAVE WEAKENED IN THE PAST
FEW HOURS. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THINK
THAT THE ACTIVITY OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN.

TODAY...THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER SD WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST...PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA. TIMING
OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE KEY...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME CAPE VALUES OF 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE QUESTION
WILL BE IF THE CAP CAN BE OVERCOME WITH MOST OF THE BEST FORCING
OFF TO THE EAST. THE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE PAST OUR COUNTIES BEFORE
PEAK HEATING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME 20-40 POPS GOING MAINLY
OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
STRENGTH FOR NOW.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SASK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY TOMORROW. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND MOVE EAST...THIS
TIME DROPPING A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY FOR SATURDAY BUT FOR NOW WENT LOW 70S IN THE NORTH
TO LOW 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS MAINLY HAVE PRECIP MOVING IN
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRETTY
WEAK...UNDER 1000 J/KG SO SEVERE THREAT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. EVEN WITH THE SFC HIGH...WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE AREA
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE THE LOWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE COOL WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
START THE WEEK. A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID-WEEK TO NEAR AVERAGE. MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY...WITH ANY
LOW MID-WEEK PRECIP CHANCES DEPENDENT ON LOW PREDICTABILITY LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS RIDING OVER THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 251431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
931 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NO CHANGES NECESSARY THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS DISSIPATED AS THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED
OFF TO THE EAST AND HAS BEEN FEEDING THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
FURTHER SOUTH OVER MN. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO REDEVELOP
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...AND THERE IS STILL THE TROUGH AXIS THAT
IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20-30 POPS
EAST OF THE WIND SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA BUT A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN PRODUCING STORMS OVER WESTERN ND
AND SOME OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOVING INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA
AND WEAKENING. THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS INTERACTED WITH SOME
STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE LOW LEVEL JET TO SET OFF SOME
STORMS OVER EASTERN SD AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND. THE STORMS WERE
JUST UNDER SEVERE LIMITS AT TIMES BUT HAVE WEAKENED IN THE PAST
FEW HOURS. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THINK
THAT THE ACTIVITY OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN.

TODAY...THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER SD WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST...PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA. TIMING
OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE KEY...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME CAPE VALUES OF 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE QUESTION
WILL BE IF THE CAP CAN BE OVERCOME WITH MOST OF THE BEST FORCING
OFF TO THE EAST. THE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE PAST OUR COUNTIES BEFORE
PEAK HEATING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME 20-40 POPS GOING MAINLY
OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
STRENGTH FOR NOW.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SASK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY TOMORROW. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND MOVE EAST...THIS
TIME DROPPING A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY FOR SATURDAY BUT FOR NOW WENT LOW 70S IN THE NORTH
TO LOW 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS MAINLY HAVE PRECIP MOVING IN
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRETTY
WEAK...UNDER 1000 J/KG SO SEVERE THREAT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. EVEN WITH THE SFC HIGH...WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE AREA
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE THE LOWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE COOL WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
START THE WEEK. A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID-WEEK TO NEAR AVERAGE. MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY...WITH ANY
LOW MID-WEEK PRECIP CHANCES DEPENDENT ON LOW PREDICTABILITY LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS RIDING OVER THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KBIS 251140
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
640 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THESE
HAVE BEEN ERODING THROUGH THE MORNING. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH CENTRAL FOR A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR SHERWOOD
TO JUST EAST OF MINOT AND SOUTH TO NEAR LINTON. WEAK PRESSURE
FALLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP INDICATES POCKETS OF LOWER CLOUDS BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT STEADILY MOVING EAST. THE HRRR CEILING FORECAST HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND ALSO PROGRESSIVELY MOVES
THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BY 14Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALBEIT A FEW DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BUT THESE
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THUS EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AS
WESTERLY WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN AREA OF SHOWERS SLIDING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA...BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THUS DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SASK THROUGH
MINNESOTA EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN US. AS THIS PROCESS TAKES PLACE THE LOW WILL USHER IN
COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE AIR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH
AND EAST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND
COOLER WITH HIGHS AS COOL AS THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...AND 70S SOUTH AND WEST. EVENTUALLY A HIGH
AMPLITUDE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A SLIGHTLY
ANTICYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A NARROW LINE OF LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL HOVER FROM KMOT TO KBIS
THROUGH 13Z FRIDAY...AND OVER KJMS UNTIL 16Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE SKC
WILL DOMINATE THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25KT WILL SUBSIDE BY 02Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 251140
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
640 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THESE
HAVE BEEN ERODING THROUGH THE MORNING. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH CENTRAL FOR A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR SHERWOOD
TO JUST EAST OF MINOT AND SOUTH TO NEAR LINTON. WEAK PRESSURE
FALLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP INDICATES POCKETS OF LOWER CLOUDS BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT STEADILY MOVING EAST. THE HRRR CEILING FORECAST HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND ALSO PROGRESSIVELY MOVES
THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BY 14Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALBEIT A FEW DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BUT THESE
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THUS EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AS
WESTERLY WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN AREA OF SHOWERS SLIDING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA...BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THUS DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SASK THROUGH
MINNESOTA EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN US. AS THIS PROCESS TAKES PLACE THE LOW WILL USHER IN
COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE AIR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH
AND EAST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND
COOLER WITH HIGHS AS COOL AS THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...AND 70S SOUTH AND WEST. EVENTUALLY A HIGH
AMPLITUDE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A SLIGHTLY
ANTICYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A NARROW LINE OF LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL HOVER FROM KMOT TO KBIS
THROUGH 13Z FRIDAY...AND OVER KJMS UNTIL 16Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE SKC
WILL DOMINATE THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25KT WILL SUBSIDE BY 02Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 251140
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
640 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THESE
HAVE BEEN ERODING THROUGH THE MORNING. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH CENTRAL FOR A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR SHERWOOD
TO JUST EAST OF MINOT AND SOUTH TO NEAR LINTON. WEAK PRESSURE
FALLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP INDICATES POCKETS OF LOWER CLOUDS BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT STEADILY MOVING EAST. THE HRRR CEILING FORECAST HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND ALSO PROGRESSIVELY MOVES
THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BY 14Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALBEIT A FEW DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BUT THESE
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THUS EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AS
WESTERLY WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN AREA OF SHOWERS SLIDING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA...BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THUS DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SASK THROUGH
MINNESOTA EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN US. AS THIS PROCESS TAKES PLACE THE LOW WILL USHER IN
COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE AIR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH
AND EAST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND
COOLER WITH HIGHS AS COOL AS THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...AND 70S SOUTH AND WEST. EVENTUALLY A HIGH
AMPLITUDE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A SLIGHTLY
ANTICYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A NARROW LINE OF LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL HOVER FROM KMOT TO KBIS
THROUGH 13Z FRIDAY...AND OVER KJMS UNTIL 16Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE SKC
WILL DOMINATE THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25KT WILL SUBSIDE BY 02Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 251140
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
640 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THESE
HAVE BEEN ERODING THROUGH THE MORNING. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH CENTRAL FOR A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR SHERWOOD
TO JUST EAST OF MINOT AND SOUTH TO NEAR LINTON. WEAK PRESSURE
FALLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP INDICATES POCKETS OF LOWER CLOUDS BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT STEADILY MOVING EAST. THE HRRR CEILING FORECAST HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND ALSO PROGRESSIVELY MOVES
THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BY 14Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALBEIT A FEW DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BUT THESE
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THUS EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AS
WESTERLY WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN AREA OF SHOWERS SLIDING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA...BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THUS DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SASK THROUGH
MINNESOTA EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN US. AS THIS PROCESS TAKES PLACE THE LOW WILL USHER IN
COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE AIR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH
AND EAST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND
COOLER WITH HIGHS AS COOL AS THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...AND 70S SOUTH AND WEST. EVENTUALLY A HIGH
AMPLITUDE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A SLIGHTLY
ANTICYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A NARROW LINE OF LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL HOVER FROM KMOT TO KBIS
THROUGH 13Z FRIDAY...AND OVER KJMS UNTIL 16Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE SKC
WILL DOMINATE THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25KT WILL SUBSIDE BY 02Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 251139
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
639 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS DISSIPATED AS THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED
OFF TO THE EAST AND HAS BEEN FEEDING THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
FURTHER SOUTH OVER MN. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO REDEVELOP
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...AND THERE IS STILL THE TROUGH AXIS THAT
IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20-30 POPS
EAST OF THE WIND SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA BUT A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN PRODUCING STORMS OVER WESTERN ND
AND SOME OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOVING INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA
AND WEAKENING. THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS INTERACTED WITH SOME
STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE LOW LEVEL JET TO SET OFF SOME
STORMS OVER EASTERN SD AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND. THE STORMS WERE
JUST UNDER SEVERE LIMITS AT TIMES BUT HAVE WEAKENED IN THE PAST
FEW HOURS. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THINK
THAT THE ACTIVITY OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN.

TODAY...THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER SD WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST...PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA. TIMING
OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE KEY...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME CAPE VALUES OF 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE QUESTION
WILL BE IF THE CAP CAN BE OVERCOME WITH MOST OF THE BEST FORCING
OFF TO THE EAST. THE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE PAST OUR COUNTIES BEFORE
PEAK HEATING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME 20-40 POPS GOING MAINLY
OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
STRENGTH FOR NOW.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SASK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY TOMORROW. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND MOVE EAST...THIS
TIME DROPPING A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY FOR SATURDAY BUT FOR NOW WENT LOW 70S IN THE NORTH
TO LOW 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS MAINLY HAVE PRECIP MOVING IN
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRETTY
WEAK...UNDER 1000 J/KG SO SEVERE THREAT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. EVEN WITH THE SFC HIGH...WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE AREA
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE THE LOWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE COOL WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
START THE WEEK. A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID-WEEK TO NEAR AVERAGE. MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY...WITH ANY
LOW MID-WEEK PRECIP CHANCES DEPENDENT ON LOW PREDICTABILITY LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS RIDING OVER THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 251139
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
639 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS DISSIPATED AS THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED
OFF TO THE EAST AND HAS BEEN FEEDING THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
FURTHER SOUTH OVER MN. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO REDEVELOP
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...AND THERE IS STILL THE TROUGH AXIS THAT
IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20-30 POPS
EAST OF THE WIND SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA BUT A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN PRODUCING STORMS OVER WESTERN ND
AND SOME OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOVING INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA
AND WEAKENING. THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS INTERACTED WITH SOME
STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE LOW LEVEL JET TO SET OFF SOME
STORMS OVER EASTERN SD AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND. THE STORMS WERE
JUST UNDER SEVERE LIMITS AT TIMES BUT HAVE WEAKENED IN THE PAST
FEW HOURS. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THINK
THAT THE ACTIVITY OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN.

TODAY...THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER SD WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST...PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA. TIMING
OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE KEY...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME CAPE VALUES OF 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE QUESTION
WILL BE IF THE CAP CAN BE OVERCOME WITH MOST OF THE BEST FORCING
OFF TO THE EAST. THE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE PAST OUR COUNTIES BEFORE
PEAK HEATING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME 20-40 POPS GOING MAINLY
OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
STRENGTH FOR NOW.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SASK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY TOMORROW. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND MOVE EAST...THIS
TIME DROPPING A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY FOR SATURDAY BUT FOR NOW WENT LOW 70S IN THE NORTH
TO LOW 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS MAINLY HAVE PRECIP MOVING IN
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRETTY
WEAK...UNDER 1000 J/KG SO SEVERE THREAT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. EVEN WITH THE SFC HIGH...WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE AREA
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE THE LOWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE COOL WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
START THE WEEK. A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID-WEEK TO NEAR AVERAGE. MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY...WITH ANY
LOW MID-WEEK PRECIP CHANCES DEPENDENT ON LOW PREDICTABILITY LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS RIDING OVER THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KBIS 250835
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
334 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR SHERWOOD
TO JUST EAST OF MINOT AND SOUTH TO NEAR LINTON. WEAK PRESSURE
FALLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP INDICATES POCKETS OF LOWER CLOUDS BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT STEADILY MOVING EAST. THE HRRR CEILING FORECAST HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND ALSO PROGRESSIVELY MOVES
THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BY 14Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALBEIT A FEW DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BUT THESE
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THUS EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AS
WESTERLY WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN AREA OF SHOWERS SLIDING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA...BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THUS DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SASK THROUGH
MINNESOTA EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN US. AS THIS PROCESS TAKES PLACE THE LOW WILL USHER IN
COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE AIR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH
AND EAST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND
COOLER WITH HIGHS AS COOL AS THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...AND 70S SOUTH AND WEST. EVENTUALLY A HIGH
AMPLITUDE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A SLIGHTLY
ANTICYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE POCKETS
OF MVFR CIGS AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS. THIS AREA OF LOW CIGS WILL MAKE
A STEADY PROGRESS EAST AND OUT OF KJMS TERMINAL BY 14Z FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR WITH WESTERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 250835
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
334 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR SHERWOOD
TO JUST EAST OF MINOT AND SOUTH TO NEAR LINTON. WEAK PRESSURE
FALLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP INDICATES POCKETS OF LOWER CLOUDS BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT STEADILY MOVING EAST. THE HRRR CEILING FORECAST HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND ALSO PROGRESSIVELY MOVES
THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BY 14Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALBEIT A FEW DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BUT THESE
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THUS EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AS
WESTERLY WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN AREA OF SHOWERS SLIDING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA...BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THUS DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SASK THROUGH
MINNESOTA EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN US. AS THIS PROCESS TAKES PLACE THE LOW WILL USHER IN
COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE AIR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH
AND EAST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND
COOLER WITH HIGHS AS COOL AS THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...AND 70S SOUTH AND WEST. EVENTUALLY A HIGH
AMPLITUDE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A SLIGHTLY
ANTICYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE POCKETS
OF MVFR CIGS AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS. THIS AREA OF LOW CIGS WILL MAKE
A STEADY PROGRESS EAST AND OUT OF KJMS TERMINAL BY 14Z FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR WITH WESTERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 250835
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
334 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR SHERWOOD
TO JUST EAST OF MINOT AND SOUTH TO NEAR LINTON. WEAK PRESSURE
FALLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP INDICATES POCKETS OF LOWER CLOUDS BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT STEADILY MOVING EAST. THE HRRR CEILING FORECAST HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND ALSO PROGRESSIVELY MOVES
THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BY 14Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALBEIT A FEW DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BUT THESE
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THUS EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AS
WESTERLY WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN AREA OF SHOWERS SLIDING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA...BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THUS DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SASK THROUGH
MINNESOTA EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN US. AS THIS PROCESS TAKES PLACE THE LOW WILL USHER IN
COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE AIR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH
AND EAST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND
COOLER WITH HIGHS AS COOL AS THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...AND 70S SOUTH AND WEST. EVENTUALLY A HIGH
AMPLITUDE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A SLIGHTLY
ANTICYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE POCKETS
OF MVFR CIGS AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS. THIS AREA OF LOW CIGS WILL MAKE
A STEADY PROGRESS EAST AND OUT OF KJMS TERMINAL BY 14Z FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR WITH WESTERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 250835
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
334 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR SHERWOOD
TO JUST EAST OF MINOT AND SOUTH TO NEAR LINTON. WEAK PRESSURE
FALLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP INDICATES POCKETS OF LOWER CLOUDS BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT STEADILY MOVING EAST. THE HRRR CEILING FORECAST HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND ALSO PROGRESSIVELY MOVES
THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BY 14Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALBEIT A FEW DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BUT THESE
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THUS EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AS
WESTERLY WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN AREA OF SHOWERS SLIDING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA...BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THUS DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SASK THROUGH
MINNESOTA EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN US. AS THIS PROCESS TAKES PLACE THE LOW WILL USHER IN
COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE AIR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH
AND EAST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND
COOLER WITH HIGHS AS COOL AS THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...AND 70S SOUTH AND WEST. EVENTUALLY A HIGH
AMPLITUDE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A SLIGHTLY
ANTICYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE POCKETS
OF MVFR CIGS AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS. THIS AREA OF LOW CIGS WILL MAKE
A STEADY PROGRESS EAST AND OUT OF KJMS TERMINAL BY 14Z FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR WITH WESTERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 250803
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
303 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA BUT A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN PRODUCING STORMS OVER WESTERN ND
AND SOME OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOVING INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA
AND WEAKENING. THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS INTERACTED WITH SOME
STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE LOW LEVEL JET TO SET OFF SOME
STORMS OVER EASTERN SD AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND. THE STORMS WERE
JUST UNDER SEVERE LIMITS AT TIMES BUT HAVE WEAKENED IN THE PAST
FEW HOURS. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THINK
THAT THE ACTIVITY OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN.

TODAY...THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER SD WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST...PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA. TIMING
OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE KEY...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME CAPE VALUES OF 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE QUESTION
WILL BE IF THE CAP CAN BE OVERCOME WITH MOST OF THE BEST FORCING
OFF TO THE EAST. THE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE PAST OUR COUNTIES BEFORE
PEAK HEATING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME 20-40 POPS GOING MAINLY
OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
STRENGTH FOR NOW.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SASK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY TOMORROW. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND MOVE EAST...THIS
TIME DROPPING A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY FOR SATURDAY BUT FOR NOW WENT LOW 70S IN THE NORTH
TO LOW 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS MAINLY HAVE PRECIP MOVING IN
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRETTY
WEAK...UNDER 1000 J/KG SO SEVERE THREAT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. EVEN WITH THE SFC HIGH...WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE AREA
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE THE LOWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE COOL WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
START THE WEEK. A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID-WEEK TO NEAR AVERAGE. MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY...WITH ANY
LOW MID-WEEK PRECIP CHANCES DEPENDENT ON LOW PREDICTABILITY LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS RIDING OVER THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF BLOW OFF MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. ALSO LOWER CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY OVER NORTHEASTERN ND.
CIGS WERE 3 TO 4 THOUSAND FT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER NORTH OF
DEVELOPING PRECIP AREA FROM FAR TO JMS. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THE LINE OF PRECIP OR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...HOPPES








000
FXUS63 KFGF 250803
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
303 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA BUT A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN PRODUCING STORMS OVER WESTERN ND
AND SOME OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOVING INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA
AND WEAKENING. THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS INTERACTED WITH SOME
STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE LOW LEVEL JET TO SET OFF SOME
STORMS OVER EASTERN SD AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND. THE STORMS WERE
JUST UNDER SEVERE LIMITS AT TIMES BUT HAVE WEAKENED IN THE PAST
FEW HOURS. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THINK
THAT THE ACTIVITY OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN.

TODAY...THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER SD WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST...PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA. TIMING
OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE KEY...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME CAPE VALUES OF 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE QUESTION
WILL BE IF THE CAP CAN BE OVERCOME WITH MOST OF THE BEST FORCING
OFF TO THE EAST. THE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE PAST OUR COUNTIES BEFORE
PEAK HEATING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME 20-40 POPS GOING MAINLY
OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
STRENGTH FOR NOW.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SASK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY TOMORROW. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND MOVE EAST...THIS
TIME DROPPING A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY FOR SATURDAY BUT FOR NOW WENT LOW 70S IN THE NORTH
TO LOW 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS MAINLY HAVE PRECIP MOVING IN
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRETTY
WEAK...UNDER 1000 J/KG SO SEVERE THREAT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. EVEN WITH THE SFC HIGH...WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE AREA
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE THE LOWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE COOL WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
START THE WEEK. A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID-WEEK TO NEAR AVERAGE. MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY...WITH ANY
LOW MID-WEEK PRECIP CHANCES DEPENDENT ON LOW PREDICTABILITY LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS RIDING OVER THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF BLOW OFF MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. ALSO LOWER CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY OVER NORTHEASTERN ND.
CIGS WERE 3 TO 4 THOUSAND FT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER NORTH OF
DEVELOPING PRECIP AREA FROM FAR TO JMS. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THE LINE OF PRECIP OR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...HOPPES







000
FXUS63 KBIS 250458
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1158 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

LATEST LOCAL RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-94 WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
NORTH. COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG A KENMARE TO GLEN ULLIN LINE IS
CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST. WILL MAINTAIN AN EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF
POPS/SKY GRIDS OVERNIGHT...DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03 UTC AS
STORMS WILL BE PROPAGATING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA HAVE STEADILY DECREASED
WITH SUNSET. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 40 MPH...AND
THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY THAT WERE IN EFFECT HAVE
BEEN CANCELLED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 851 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE OCCLUDING FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 06 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50KTS HAVE BEEN
WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION AND OCCLUDING FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MUCH
OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS. THUS...A HIGH
WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 06 UTC FOR MUCH OF THE WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF GOLDEN
VALLEY...BILLINGS...STARK...SLOPE...BOWMAN...HETTINGER AND ADAMS
COUNTIES UNTIL 03 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE 20 UTC AND INCOMING 21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...AND WILL LEAN
HEAVILY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. DID COORDINATE WITH SPC AT 2230 UTC REGARDING A
POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST. WILL HOLD OFF FOR
NOW AS ALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE. HOWEVER...SHOULD
CONVECTION STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES BAKER...A WATCH EXPANSION
MAY BE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 03 UTC. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AROUND 00-01 UTC AS STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MONTANA COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PROPAGATE
EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSE TO THE 19 UTC HRRR SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA TO THE WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. AT
UPPER LEVELS...STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPEARS
TO BE FOCUSED MORE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT PLENTY OF CAPE
AND SHEAR IN PLACE SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MID-LEVEL CAP WAS BUILDING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
WERE MOVING EAST AT 30-35 MPH...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW - BUT NOT SURFACE-BASED.

THE MAIN ACTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT
BEST CAPE IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND THE BEST SHEAR IS
RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH.

EXPECTING BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AND BEST CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL FROM MID/LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND BREEZY WEST WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SAT...WILL
DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN MN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WITH THE LOW COUPLED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BOTH COMBINE WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH SAT
MORNING...WITH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...THEN
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY GIVING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REGION A DRY WEATHER SPELL. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE RIDGE RIDER S/WVS MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST...WILL
SEE SPOTTY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING MID-WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE END OF JULY SAT-
MON...IN THE 70S...THEN WARM INTO THE 80S TUE-THURS WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT ACROSS
KMOT/KBIS/KJMS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15 AND 25
MPH WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...KS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 250458
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1158 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

LATEST LOCAL RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-94 WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
NORTH. COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG A KENMARE TO GLEN ULLIN LINE IS
CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST. WILL MAINTAIN AN EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF
POPS/SKY GRIDS OVERNIGHT...DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03 UTC AS
STORMS WILL BE PROPAGATING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA HAVE STEADILY DECREASED
WITH SUNSET. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 40 MPH...AND
THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY THAT WERE IN EFFECT HAVE
BEEN CANCELLED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 851 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE OCCLUDING FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 06 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50KTS HAVE BEEN
WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION AND OCCLUDING FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MUCH
OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS. THUS...A HIGH
WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 06 UTC FOR MUCH OF THE WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF GOLDEN
VALLEY...BILLINGS...STARK...SLOPE...BOWMAN...HETTINGER AND ADAMS
COUNTIES UNTIL 03 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE 20 UTC AND INCOMING 21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...AND WILL LEAN
HEAVILY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. DID COORDINATE WITH SPC AT 2230 UTC REGARDING A
POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST. WILL HOLD OFF FOR
NOW AS ALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE. HOWEVER...SHOULD
CONVECTION STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES BAKER...A WATCH EXPANSION
MAY BE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 03 UTC. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AROUND 00-01 UTC AS STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MONTANA COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PROPAGATE
EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSE TO THE 19 UTC HRRR SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA TO THE WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. AT
UPPER LEVELS...STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPEARS
TO BE FOCUSED MORE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT PLENTY OF CAPE
AND SHEAR IN PLACE SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MID-LEVEL CAP WAS BUILDING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
WERE MOVING EAST AT 30-35 MPH...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW - BUT NOT SURFACE-BASED.

THE MAIN ACTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT
BEST CAPE IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND THE BEST SHEAR IS
RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH.

EXPECTING BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AND BEST CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL FROM MID/LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND BREEZY WEST WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SAT...WILL
DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN MN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WITH THE LOW COUPLED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BOTH COMBINE WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH SAT
MORNING...WITH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...THEN
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY GIVING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REGION A DRY WEATHER SPELL. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE RIDGE RIDER S/WVS MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST...WILL
SEE SPOTTY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING MID-WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE END OF JULY SAT-
MON...IN THE 70S...THEN WARM INTO THE 80S TUE-THURS WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT ACROSS
KMOT/KBIS/KJMS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15 AND 25
MPH WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 250454
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1154 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER NORTHWEST SD WHERE TEMPS WERE QUITE WARM
ALOFT. LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINTAIN THEIR NUMBERS OVER SD WHILE OVER
ND THE STRIKES HAVE DECREASED IN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. STORMS HAVE
BEEN MOVING EAST AT 40 TO 45 KNOTS. VAD WINDS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL JET
MAY BE FARTHER WEST THAN THE MODELS WHICH IS KEEPING SD STORMS
GOING. ALSO A LINE OF PRECIP WAS DEVELOPING FROM NORTH OF JMS TO
SOUTH OF FAR.

WATER VAPOR LOOP SUGGESTS A SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS ND AND SD
AND WAS KNOCKING DOWN RIDGE AXIS.

SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF PIR WITH TROUGH EXTENDING INTO
WESTERN ND. SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER
SOUTHERN ALTA. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRI.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF BY MORNING.
GOOD SURFACE MIXING RATIOS PRECEDE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE WEST.
HOWEVER NOT MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST PRECEDES FRONT FOR
TONIGHT. HOWEVER STRONGER JET IS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND IS POST
FRONTAL.

MODELS INDICATE TWO 700 THETA-E RIDGES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND
THE OTHER IN WESTERN ND/EASTERN MT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE 850 HPA
DEWPOINTS INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHEAST ZONES. RADAR INDICATING
PRECIP TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST ZONES. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
DEVELOP PRECIP OVER SOUTHEAST ZONES. WILL INCREASE POPS IN SOUTHEAST
ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

RADARS INDICATED BAND OF PRECIP MOVING INTO BARNES, GRIGGS, AND
NELSON COUNTIES. PRECIP WAS MOVING EAST ABOUT 50 KNOTS. LIGHTNING
NETWORK INDICATED ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED TO NO RECENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES. EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND DISSIPATING. NO
CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS T CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT HOWEVER SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN PCPN COVERAGE
LOCATION WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE. AT THIS POINT ECMWF HAVING BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT RAIN LOCATION SO WILL FOLLOW IN THE NEAR TERM.

SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW TONIGHT WHICH WILL REACH
WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES BY MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
INTERACT WITH SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN EASTERN MT TO
INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION. CURRENTLY THERE IS SOME
CAPPING HOWEVER APPROACHING WAVE SHOULD BREAK CAP WITH STORMS
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZING ALONG MT/DAKOTAS BORDER THIS EVENING
PROPAGATING EAST OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
AT LEAST FROM MODEL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND CAPE
WITH WAVE TO LIKELY KEEP STORMS GOING AND COULD REMAIN STRONG
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TIMING/COVERAGE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT
TRENDS ARE IMPACTS IN OUR FA NEAR OR AFT MIDNIGHT. WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID NOT INCREASE POPS AT THIS POINT. HIGH RES RAPID
REFRESH MODEL INDICATING POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONGER WINDS WITH
POSSIBLE BOWING COMPLEX REACHING CENTRAL DAKOTAS AROUND 06Z ALONG
COLD FRONT. SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN PUSHED FAR EAST AS THE
VALLEY SO STORMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LATE TONIGHT.

FRONT WILL PUSH AS FAR EAST AS THE VALLEY ON FRIDAY MID DAY WITH
MAIN PCPN THREAT LINGERING IN THE AM. HOW FAR EAST WILL DETERMINE
WHERE STORMS AGAIN COULD INITIATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR EASTERN
COULD BE ON THE EDGE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. COLD ADVECTION NOT
SIGNIFICANT AND SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

LOOKS QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FA IN BETWEEN FRONTAL PASSAGES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH FA SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW
SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN FA. AIR MASS MORE STABLE WITH THIS BOUNDARY
SO THUNDERSTORMS LESS OF A THREAT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH AS COLD POOL DESCENDS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING OF
THE FRONT SE HALF OF THE FA COULD STILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH FA WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL BLO AVERAGE WITH SOME SPOTTY SHRA ALONG FRONT.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 500MB NW
FLOW ALOFT AS WESTERN US UNDER RIDGE AND EASTERN US UNDER THE
TROUGH. THAT GIVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL TREND FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL
TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. KEPT THE ISO
POCKETS OF SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER WED AND THU AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
PUSH EAST AND HERE MAYBE A POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ABLE TO RIDE RIDGE
AND BRING PCPN TO THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF BLOW OFF MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. ALSO LOWER CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY OVER NORTHEASTERN ND.
CIGS WERE 3 TO 4 THOUSAND FT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER NORTH OF
DEVELOPING PRECIP AREA FROM FAR TO JMS. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THE LINE OF PRECIP OR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 250454
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1154 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER NORTHWEST SD WHERE TEMPS WERE QUITE WARM
ALOFT. LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINTAIN THEIR NUMBERS OVER SD WHILE OVER
ND THE STRIKES HAVE DECREASED IN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. STORMS HAVE
BEEN MOVING EAST AT 40 TO 45 KNOTS. VAD WINDS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL JET
MAY BE FARTHER WEST THAN THE MODELS WHICH IS KEEPING SD STORMS
GOING. ALSO A LINE OF PRECIP WAS DEVELOPING FROM NORTH OF JMS TO
SOUTH OF FAR.

WATER VAPOR LOOP SUGGESTS A SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS ND AND SD
AND WAS KNOCKING DOWN RIDGE AXIS.

SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF PIR WITH TROUGH EXTENDING INTO
WESTERN ND. SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER
SOUTHERN ALTA. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRI.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF BY MORNING.
GOOD SURFACE MIXING RATIOS PRECEDE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE WEST.
HOWEVER NOT MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST PRECEDES FRONT FOR
TONIGHT. HOWEVER STRONGER JET IS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND IS POST
FRONTAL.

MODELS INDICATE TWO 700 THETA-E RIDGES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND
THE OTHER IN WESTERN ND/EASTERN MT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE 850 HPA
DEWPOINTS INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHEAST ZONES. RADAR INDICATING
PRECIP TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST ZONES. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
DEVELOP PRECIP OVER SOUTHEAST ZONES. WILL INCREASE POPS IN SOUTHEAST
ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

RADARS INDICATED BAND OF PRECIP MOVING INTO BARNES, GRIGGS, AND
NELSON COUNTIES. PRECIP WAS MOVING EAST ABOUT 50 KNOTS. LIGHTNING
NETWORK INDICATED ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED TO NO RECENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES. EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND DISSIPATING. NO
CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS T CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT HOWEVER SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN PCPN COVERAGE
LOCATION WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE. AT THIS POINT ECMWF HAVING BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT RAIN LOCATION SO WILL FOLLOW IN THE NEAR TERM.

SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW TONIGHT WHICH WILL REACH
WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES BY MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
INTERACT WITH SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN EASTERN MT TO
INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION. CURRENTLY THERE IS SOME
CAPPING HOWEVER APPROACHING WAVE SHOULD BREAK CAP WITH STORMS
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZING ALONG MT/DAKOTAS BORDER THIS EVENING
PROPAGATING EAST OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
AT LEAST FROM MODEL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND CAPE
WITH WAVE TO LIKELY KEEP STORMS GOING AND COULD REMAIN STRONG
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TIMING/COVERAGE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT
TRENDS ARE IMPACTS IN OUR FA NEAR OR AFT MIDNIGHT. WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID NOT INCREASE POPS AT THIS POINT. HIGH RES RAPID
REFRESH MODEL INDICATING POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONGER WINDS WITH
POSSIBLE BOWING COMPLEX REACHING CENTRAL DAKOTAS AROUND 06Z ALONG
COLD FRONT. SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN PUSHED FAR EAST AS THE
VALLEY SO STORMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LATE TONIGHT.

FRONT WILL PUSH AS FAR EAST AS THE VALLEY ON FRIDAY MID DAY WITH
MAIN PCPN THREAT LINGERING IN THE AM. HOW FAR EAST WILL DETERMINE
WHERE STORMS AGAIN COULD INITIATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR EASTERN
COULD BE ON THE EDGE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. COLD ADVECTION NOT
SIGNIFICANT AND SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

LOOKS QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FA IN BETWEEN FRONTAL PASSAGES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH FA SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW
SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN FA. AIR MASS MORE STABLE WITH THIS BOUNDARY
SO THUNDERSTORMS LESS OF A THREAT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH AS COLD POOL DESCENDS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING OF
THE FRONT SE HALF OF THE FA COULD STILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH FA WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL BLO AVERAGE WITH SOME SPOTTY SHRA ALONG FRONT.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 500MB NW
FLOW ALOFT AS WESTERN US UNDER RIDGE AND EASTERN US UNDER THE
TROUGH. THAT GIVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL TREND FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL
TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. KEPT THE ISO
POCKETS OF SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER WED AND THU AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
PUSH EAST AND HERE MAYBE A POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ABLE TO RIDE RIDGE
AND BRING PCPN TO THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF BLOW OFF MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. ALSO LOWER CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY OVER NORTHEASTERN ND.
CIGS WERE 3 TO 4 THOUSAND FT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER NORTH OF
DEVELOPING PRECIP AREA FROM FAR TO JMS. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THE LINE OF PRECIP OR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KBIS 250319
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1019 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03 UTC AS
STORMS WILL BE PROPAGATING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA HAVE STEADILY DECREASED
WITH SUNSET. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 40 MPH...AND
THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY THAT WERE IN EFFECT HAVE
BEEN CANCELLED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 851 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE OCCLUDING FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 06 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50KTS HAVE BEEN
WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION AND OCCLUDING FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MUCH
OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS. THUS...A HIGH
WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 06 UTC FOR MUCH OF THE WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF GOLDEN
VALLEY...BILLINGS...STARK...SLOPE...BOWMAN...HETTINGER AND ADAMS
COUNTIES UNTIL 03 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE 20 UTC AND INCOMING 21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...AND WILL LEAN
HEAVILY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. DID COORDINATE WITH SPC AT 2230 UTC REGARDING A
POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST. WILL HOLD OFF FOR
NOW AS ALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE. HOWEVER...SHOULD
CONVECTION STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES BAKER...A WATCH EXPANSION
MAY BE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 03 UTC. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AROUND 00-01 UTC AS STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MONTANA COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PROPAGATE
EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSE TO THE 19 UTC HRRR SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA TO THE WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. AT
UPPER LEVELS...STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPEARS
TO BE FOCUSED MORE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT PLENTY OF CAPE
AND SHEAR IN PLACE SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MID-LEVEL CAP WAS BUILDING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
WERE MOVING EAST AT 30-35 MPH...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW - BUT NOT SURFACE-BASED.

THE MAIN ACTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT
BEST CAPE IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND THE BEST SHEAR IS
RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH.

EXPECTING BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AND BEST CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL FROM MID/LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND BREEZY WEST WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SAT...WILL
DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN MN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WITH THE LOW COUPLED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BOTH COMBINE WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH SAT
MORNING...WITH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...THEN
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY GIVING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REGION A DRY WEATHER SPELL. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE RIDGE RIDER S/WVS MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST...WILL
SEE SPOTTY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING MID-WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE END OF JULY SAT-
MON...IN THE 70S...THEN WARM INTO THE 80S TUE-THURS WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SEE TAF FORECASTS FOR THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND DETAILS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 250319
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1019 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03 UTC AS
STORMS WILL BE PROPAGATING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA HAVE STEADILY DECREASED
WITH SUNSET. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 40 MPH...AND
THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY THAT WERE IN EFFECT HAVE
BEEN CANCELLED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 851 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE OCCLUDING FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 06 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50KTS HAVE BEEN
WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION AND OCCLUDING FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MUCH
OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS. THUS...A HIGH
WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 06 UTC FOR MUCH OF THE WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF GOLDEN
VALLEY...BILLINGS...STARK...SLOPE...BOWMAN...HETTINGER AND ADAMS
COUNTIES UNTIL 03 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE 20 UTC AND INCOMING 21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...AND WILL LEAN
HEAVILY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. DID COORDINATE WITH SPC AT 2230 UTC REGARDING A
POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST. WILL HOLD OFF FOR
NOW AS ALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE. HOWEVER...SHOULD
CONVECTION STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES BAKER...A WATCH EXPANSION
MAY BE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 03 UTC. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AROUND 00-01 UTC AS STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MONTANA COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PROPAGATE
EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSE TO THE 19 UTC HRRR SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA TO THE WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. AT
UPPER LEVELS...STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPEARS
TO BE FOCUSED MORE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT PLENTY OF CAPE
AND SHEAR IN PLACE SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MID-LEVEL CAP WAS BUILDING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
WERE MOVING EAST AT 30-35 MPH...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW - BUT NOT SURFACE-BASED.

THE MAIN ACTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT
BEST CAPE IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND THE BEST SHEAR IS
RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH.

EXPECTING BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AND BEST CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL FROM MID/LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND BREEZY WEST WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SAT...WILL
DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN MN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WITH THE LOW COUPLED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BOTH COMBINE WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH SAT
MORNING...WITH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...THEN
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY GIVING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REGION A DRY WEATHER SPELL. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE RIDGE RIDER S/WVS MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST...WILL
SEE SPOTTY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING MID-WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE END OF JULY SAT-
MON...IN THE 70S...THEN WARM INTO THE 80S TUE-THURS WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SEE TAF FORECASTS FOR THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND DETAILS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 250319
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1019 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03 UTC AS
STORMS WILL BE PROPAGATING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA HAVE STEADILY DECREASED
WITH SUNSET. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 40 MPH...AND
THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY THAT WERE IN EFFECT HAVE
BEEN CANCELLED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 851 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE OCCLUDING FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 06 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50KTS HAVE BEEN
WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION AND OCCLUDING FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MUCH
OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS. THUS...A HIGH
WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 06 UTC FOR MUCH OF THE WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF GOLDEN
VALLEY...BILLINGS...STARK...SLOPE...BOWMAN...HETTINGER AND ADAMS
COUNTIES UNTIL 03 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE 20 UTC AND INCOMING 21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...AND WILL LEAN
HEAVILY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. DID COORDINATE WITH SPC AT 2230 UTC REGARDING A
POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST. WILL HOLD OFF FOR
NOW AS ALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE. HOWEVER...SHOULD
CONVECTION STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES BAKER...A WATCH EXPANSION
MAY BE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 03 UTC. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AROUND 00-01 UTC AS STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MONTANA COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PROPAGATE
EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSE TO THE 19 UTC HRRR SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA TO THE WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. AT
UPPER LEVELS...STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPEARS
TO BE FOCUSED MORE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT PLENTY OF CAPE
AND SHEAR IN PLACE SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MID-LEVEL CAP WAS BUILDING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
WERE MOVING EAST AT 30-35 MPH...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW - BUT NOT SURFACE-BASED.

THE MAIN ACTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT
BEST CAPE IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND THE BEST SHEAR IS
RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH.

EXPECTING BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AND BEST CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL FROM MID/LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND BREEZY WEST WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SAT...WILL
DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN MN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WITH THE LOW COUPLED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BOTH COMBINE WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH SAT
MORNING...WITH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...THEN
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY GIVING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REGION A DRY WEATHER SPELL. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE RIDGE RIDER S/WVS MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST...WILL
SEE SPOTTY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING MID-WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE END OF JULY SAT-
MON...IN THE 70S...THEN WARM INTO THE 80S TUE-THURS WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SEE TAF FORECASTS FOR THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND DETAILS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 250319
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1019 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03 UTC AS
STORMS WILL BE PROPAGATING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA HAVE STEADILY DECREASED
WITH SUNSET. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 40 MPH...AND
THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY THAT WERE IN EFFECT HAVE
BEEN CANCELLED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 851 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE OCCLUDING FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 06 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50KTS HAVE BEEN
WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION AND OCCLUDING FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MUCH
OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS. THUS...A HIGH
WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 06 UTC FOR MUCH OF THE WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF GOLDEN
VALLEY...BILLINGS...STARK...SLOPE...BOWMAN...HETTINGER AND ADAMS
COUNTIES UNTIL 03 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE 20 UTC AND INCOMING 21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...AND WILL LEAN
HEAVILY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. DID COORDINATE WITH SPC AT 2230 UTC REGARDING A
POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST. WILL HOLD OFF FOR
NOW AS ALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE. HOWEVER...SHOULD
CONVECTION STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES BAKER...A WATCH EXPANSION
MAY BE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 03 UTC. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AROUND 00-01 UTC AS STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MONTANA COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PROPAGATE
EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSE TO THE 19 UTC HRRR SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA TO THE WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. AT
UPPER LEVELS...STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPEARS
TO BE FOCUSED MORE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT PLENTY OF CAPE
AND SHEAR IN PLACE SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MID-LEVEL CAP WAS BUILDING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
WERE MOVING EAST AT 30-35 MPH...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW - BUT NOT SURFACE-BASED.

THE MAIN ACTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT
BEST CAPE IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND THE BEST SHEAR IS
RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH.

EXPECTING BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AND BEST CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL FROM MID/LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND BREEZY WEST WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SAT...WILL
DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN MN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WITH THE LOW COUPLED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BOTH COMBINE WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH SAT
MORNING...WITH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...THEN
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY GIVING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REGION A DRY WEATHER SPELL. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE RIDGE RIDER S/WVS MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST...WILL
SEE SPOTTY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING MID-WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE END OF JULY SAT-
MON...IN THE 70S...THEN WARM INTO THE 80S TUE-THURS WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SEE TAF FORECASTS FOR THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND DETAILS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KFGF 250245
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
945 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER
SOUTHERN ALTA. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRI.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF BY MORNING.
GOOD SURFACE MIXING RATIOS PRECEDE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE WEST.
HOWEVER NOT MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST PRECEDES FRONT FOR
TONIGHT. HOWEVER STRONGER JET IS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND IS POST
FRONTAL.

MODELS INDICATE TWO 700 THETA-E RIDGES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND
THE OTHER IN WESTERN ND/EASTERN MT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE 850 HPA
DEWPOINTS INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHEAST ZONES. RADAR INDICATING
PRECIP TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST ZONES. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
DEVELOP PRECIP OVER SOUTHEAST ZONES. WILL INCREASE POPS IN SOUTHEAST
ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

RADARS INDICATED BAND OF PRECIP MOVING INTO BARNES, GRIGGS, AND
NELSON COUNTIES. PRECIP WAS MOVING EAST ABOUT 50 KNOTS. LIGHTNING
NETWORK INDICATED ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED TO NO RECENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES. EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND DISSIPATING. NO
CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS T CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT HOWEVER SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN PCPN COVERAGE
LOCATION WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE. AT THIS POINT ECMWF HAVING BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT RAIN LOCATION SO WILL FOLLOW IN THE NEAR TERM.

SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW TONIGHT WHICH WILL REACH
WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES BY MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
INTERACT WITH SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN EASTERN MT TO
INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION. CURRENTLY THERE IS SOME
CAPPING HOWEVER APPROACHING WAVE SHOULD BREAK CAP WITH STORMS
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZING ALONG MT/DAKOTAS BORDER THIS EVENING
PROPAGATING EAST OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
AT LEAST FROM MODEL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND CAPE
WITH WAVE TO LIKELY KEEP STORMS GOING AND COULD REMAIN STRONG
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TIMING/COVERAGE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT
TRENDS ARE IMPACTS IN OUR FA NEAR OR AFT MIDNIGHT. WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID NOT INCREASE POPS AT THIS POINT. HIGH RES RAPID
REFRESH MODEL INDICATING POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONGER WINDS WITH
POSSIBLE BOWING COMPLEX REACHING CENTRAL DAKOTAS AROUND 06Z ALONG
COLD FRONT. SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN PUSHED FAR EAST AS THE
VALLEY SO STORMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LATE TONIGHT.

FRONT WILL PUSH AS FAR EAST AS THE VALLEY ON FRIDAY MID DAY WITH
MAIN PCPN THREAT LINGERING IN THE AM. HOW FAR EAST WILL DETERMINE
WHERE STORMS AGAIN COULD INITIATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR EASTERN
COULD BE ON THE EDGE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. COLD ADVECTION NOT
SIGNIFICANT AND SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

LOOKS QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FA IN BETWEEN FRONTAL PASSAGES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH FA SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW
SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN FA. AIR MASS MORE STABLE WITH THIS BOUNDARY
SO THUNDERSTORMS LESS OF A THREAT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH AS COLD POOL DESCENDS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING OF
THE FRONT SE HALF OF THE FA COULD STILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH FA WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL BLO AVERAGE WITH SOME SPOTTY SHRA ALONG FRONT.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 500MB NW
FLOW ALOFT AS WESTERN US UNDER RIDGE AND EASTERN US UNDER THE
TROUGH. THAT GIVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL TREND FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL
TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. KEPT THE ISO
POCKETS OF SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER WED AND THU AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
PUSH EAST AND HERE MAYBE A POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ABLE TO RIDE RIDGE
AND BRING PCPN TO THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. VISIBLE LOOP INDICATED CLOUD
DECKS MOVING EAST OVER EASTERN ND AND FAR NORTHERN MN. CIGS HAVE
LOWERED TO AROUND 35 HUNDRED FT IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WITH PRECIP
MOVING IN. CIGS OVER NORTHERN MN WAS AROUND 11 THOUSAND FT. ELSEWHERE
MVFR CIGS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND
EXPANDING NORTH.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 250245
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
945 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER
SOUTHERN ALTA. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRI.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF BY MORNING.
GOOD SURFACE MIXING RATIOS PRECEDE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE WEST.
HOWEVER NOT MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST PRECEDES FRONT FOR
TONIGHT. HOWEVER STRONGER JET IS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND IS POST
FRONTAL.

MODELS INDICATE TWO 700 THETA-E RIDGES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND
THE OTHER IN WESTERN ND/EASTERN MT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE 850 HPA
DEWPOINTS INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHEAST ZONES. RADAR INDICATING
PRECIP TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST ZONES. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
DEVELOP PRECIP OVER SOUTHEAST ZONES. WILL INCREASE POPS IN SOUTHEAST
ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

RADARS INDICATED BAND OF PRECIP MOVING INTO BARNES, GRIGGS, AND
NELSON COUNTIES. PRECIP WAS MOVING EAST ABOUT 50 KNOTS. LIGHTNING
NETWORK INDICATED ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED TO NO RECENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES. EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND DISSIPATING. NO
CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS T CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT HOWEVER SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN PCPN COVERAGE
LOCATION WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE. AT THIS POINT ECMWF HAVING BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT RAIN LOCATION SO WILL FOLLOW IN THE NEAR TERM.

SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW TONIGHT WHICH WILL REACH
WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES BY MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
INTERACT WITH SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN EASTERN MT TO
INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION. CURRENTLY THERE IS SOME
CAPPING HOWEVER APPROACHING WAVE SHOULD BREAK CAP WITH STORMS
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZING ALONG MT/DAKOTAS BORDER THIS EVENING
PROPAGATING EAST OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
AT LEAST FROM MODEL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND CAPE
WITH WAVE TO LIKELY KEEP STORMS GOING AND COULD REMAIN STRONG
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TIMING/COVERAGE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT
TRENDS ARE IMPACTS IN OUR FA NEAR OR AFT MIDNIGHT. WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID NOT INCREASE POPS AT THIS POINT. HIGH RES RAPID
REFRESH MODEL INDICATING POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONGER WINDS WITH
POSSIBLE BOWING COMPLEX REACHING CENTRAL DAKOTAS AROUND 06Z ALONG
COLD FRONT. SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN PUSHED FAR EAST AS THE
VALLEY SO STORMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LATE TONIGHT.

FRONT WILL PUSH AS FAR EAST AS THE VALLEY ON FRIDAY MID DAY WITH
MAIN PCPN THREAT LINGERING IN THE AM. HOW FAR EAST WILL DETERMINE
WHERE STORMS AGAIN COULD INITIATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR EASTERN
COULD BE ON THE EDGE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. COLD ADVECTION NOT
SIGNIFICANT AND SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

LOOKS QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FA IN BETWEEN FRONTAL PASSAGES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH FA SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW
SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN FA. AIR MASS MORE STABLE WITH THIS BOUNDARY
SO THUNDERSTORMS LESS OF A THREAT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH AS COLD POOL DESCENDS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING OF
THE FRONT SE HALF OF THE FA COULD STILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH FA WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL BLO AVERAGE WITH SOME SPOTTY SHRA ALONG FRONT.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 500MB NW
FLOW ALOFT AS WESTERN US UNDER RIDGE AND EASTERN US UNDER THE
TROUGH. THAT GIVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL TREND FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL
TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. KEPT THE ISO
POCKETS OF SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER WED AND THU AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
PUSH EAST AND HERE MAYBE A POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ABLE TO RIDE RIDGE
AND BRING PCPN TO THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. VISIBLE LOOP INDICATED CLOUD
DECKS MOVING EAST OVER EASTERN ND AND FAR NORTHERN MN. CIGS HAVE
LOWERED TO AROUND 35 HUNDRED FT IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WITH PRECIP
MOVING IN. CIGS OVER NORTHERN MN WAS AROUND 11 THOUSAND FT. ELSEWHERE
MVFR CIGS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND
EXPANDING NORTH.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KBIS 250152
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
852 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE OCCLUDING FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 06 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50KTS HAVE BEEN
WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION AND OCCLUDING FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MUCH
OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS. THUS...A HIGH
WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 06 UTC FOR MUCH OF THE WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF GOLDEN
VALLEY...BILLINGS...STARK...SLOPE...BOWMAN...HETTINGER AND ADAMS
COUNTIES UNTIL 03 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE 20 UTC AND INCOMING 21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...AND WILL LEAN
HEAVILY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. DID COORDINATE WITH SPC AT 2230 UTC REGARDING A
POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST. WILL HOLD OFF FOR
NOW AS ALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE. HOWEVER...SHOULD
CONVECTION STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES BAKER...A WATCH EXPANSION
MAY BE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 03 UTC. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AROUND 00-01 UTC AS STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MONTANA COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PROPAGATE
EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSE TO THE 19 UTC HRRR SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA TO THE WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. AT
UPPER LEVELS...STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPEARS
TO BE FOCUSED MORE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT PLENTY OF CAPE
AND SHEAR IN PLACE SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MID-LEVEL CAP WAS BUILDING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
WERE MOVING EAST AT 30-35 MPH...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW - BUT NOT SURFACE-BASED.

THE MAIN ACTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT
BEST CAPE IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND THE BEST SHEAR IS
RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH.

EXPECTING BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AND BEST CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL FROM MID/LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND BREEZY WEST WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SAT...WILL
DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN MN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WITH THE LOW COUPLED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BOTH COMBINE WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH SAT
MORNING...WITH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...THEN
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY GIVING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REGION A DRY WEATHER SPELL. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE RIDGE RIDER S/WVS MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST...WILL
SEE SPOTTY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING MID-WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE END OF JULY SAT-
MON...IN THE 70S...THEN WARM INTO THE 80S TUE-THURS WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SEE TAF FORECASTS FOR THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND DETAIL. STRONG
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS AT KISN THROUGH 05-06 UTC...WITH GUSTS
OF 35-40KTS AT KDIK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ FRIDAY FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031-032.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NDZ033-040-041-043-
044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 250152
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
852 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE OCCLUDING FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 06 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50KTS HAVE BEEN
WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION AND OCCLUDING FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MUCH
OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS. THUS...A HIGH
WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 06 UTC FOR MUCH OF THE WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF GOLDEN
VALLEY...BILLINGS...STARK...SLOPE...BOWMAN...HETTINGER AND ADAMS
COUNTIES UNTIL 03 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE 20 UTC AND INCOMING 21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...AND WILL LEAN
HEAVILY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. DID COORDINATE WITH SPC AT 2230 UTC REGARDING A
POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST. WILL HOLD OFF FOR
NOW AS ALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE. HOWEVER...SHOULD
CONVECTION STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES BAKER...A WATCH EXPANSION
MAY BE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 03 UTC. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AROUND 00-01 UTC AS STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MONTANA COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PROPAGATE
EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSE TO THE 19 UTC HRRR SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA TO THE WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. AT
UPPER LEVELS...STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPEARS
TO BE FOCUSED MORE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT PLENTY OF CAPE
AND SHEAR IN PLACE SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MID-LEVEL CAP WAS BUILDING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
WERE MOVING EAST AT 30-35 MPH...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW - BUT NOT SURFACE-BASED.

THE MAIN ACTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT
BEST CAPE IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND THE BEST SHEAR IS
RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH.

EXPECTING BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AND BEST CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL FROM MID/LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND BREEZY WEST WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SAT...WILL
DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN MN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WITH THE LOW COUPLED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BOTH COMBINE WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH SAT
MORNING...WITH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...THEN
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY GIVING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REGION A DRY WEATHER SPELL. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE RIDGE RIDER S/WVS MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST...WILL
SEE SPOTTY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING MID-WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE END OF JULY SAT-
MON...IN THE 70S...THEN WARM INTO THE 80S TUE-THURS WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SEE TAF FORECASTS FOR THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND DETAIL. STRONG
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS AT KISN THROUGH 05-06 UTC...WITH GUSTS
OF 35-40KTS AT KDIK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ FRIDAY FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031-032.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NDZ033-040-041-043-
044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 250112
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
812 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50KTS HAVE BEEN
WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION AND OCCLUDING FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MUCH
OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS. THUS...A HIGH
WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 06 UTC FOR MUCH OF THE WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF GOLDEN
VALLEY...BILLINGS...STARK...SLOPE...BOWMAN...HETTINGER AND ADAMS
COUNTIES UNTIL 03 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE 20 UTC AND INCOMING 21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...AND WILL LEAN
HEAVILY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. DID COORDINATE WITH SPC AT 2230 UTC REGARDING A
POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST. WILL HOLD OFF FOR
NOW AS ALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE. HOWEVER...SHOULD
CONVECTION STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES BAKER...A WATCH EXPANSION
MAY BE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 03 UTC. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AROUND 00-01 UTC AS STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MONTANA COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PROPAGATE
EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSE TO THE 19 UTC HRRR SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA TO THE WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. AT
UPPER LEVELS...STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPEARS
TO BE FOCUSED MORE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT PLENTY OF CAPE
AND SHEAR IN PLACE SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MID-LEVEL CAP WAS BUILDING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
WERE MOVING EAST AT 30-35 MPH...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW - BUT NOT SURFACE-BASED.

THE MAIN ACTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT
BEST CAPE IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND THE BEST SHEAR IS
RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH.

EXPECTING BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AND BEST CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL FROM MID/LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND BREEZY WEST WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SAT...WILL
DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN MN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WITH THE LOW COUPLED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BOTH COMBINE WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH SAT
MORNING...WITH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...THEN
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY GIVING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REGION A DRY WEATHER SPELL. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE RIDGE RIDER S/WVS MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST...WILL
SEE SPOTTY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING MID-WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE END OF JULY SAT-
MON...IN THE 70S...THEN WARM INTO THE 80S TUE-THURS WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SEE TAF FORECASTS FOR THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND DETAIL. STRONG
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS AT KISN THROUGH 05-06 UTC.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ FRIDAY FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 250112
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
812 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50KTS HAVE BEEN
WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION AND OCCLUDING FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MUCH
OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS. THUS...A HIGH
WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 06 UTC FOR MUCH OF THE WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF GOLDEN
VALLEY...BILLINGS...STARK...SLOPE...BOWMAN...HETTINGER AND ADAMS
COUNTIES UNTIL 03 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE 20 UTC AND INCOMING 21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...AND WILL LEAN
HEAVILY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. DID COORDINATE WITH SPC AT 2230 UTC REGARDING A
POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST. WILL HOLD OFF FOR
NOW AS ALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE. HOWEVER...SHOULD
CONVECTION STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES BAKER...A WATCH EXPANSION
MAY BE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 03 UTC. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AROUND 00-01 UTC AS STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MONTANA COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PROPAGATE
EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSE TO THE 19 UTC HRRR SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA TO THE WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. AT
UPPER LEVELS...STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPEARS
TO BE FOCUSED MORE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT PLENTY OF CAPE
AND SHEAR IN PLACE SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MID-LEVEL CAP WAS BUILDING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
WERE MOVING EAST AT 30-35 MPH...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW - BUT NOT SURFACE-BASED.

THE MAIN ACTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT
BEST CAPE IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND THE BEST SHEAR IS
RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH.

EXPECTING BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AND BEST CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL FROM MID/LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND BREEZY WEST WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SAT...WILL
DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN MN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WITH THE LOW COUPLED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BOTH COMBINE WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH SAT
MORNING...WITH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...THEN
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY GIVING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REGION A DRY WEATHER SPELL. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE RIDGE RIDER S/WVS MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST...WILL
SEE SPOTTY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING MID-WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE END OF JULY SAT-
MON...IN THE 70S...THEN WARM INTO THE 80S TUE-THURS WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SEE TAF FORECASTS FOR THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND DETAIL. STRONG
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS AT KISN THROUGH 05-06 UTC.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ FRIDAY FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KFGF 250000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

RADARS INDICATED BAND OF PRECIP MOVING INTO BARNES, GRIGGS, AND
NELSON COUNTIES. PRECIP WAS MOVING EAST ABOUT 50 KNOTS. LIGHTNING
NETWORK INDICATED ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED TO NO RECENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES. EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND DISSIPATING. NO
CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS T CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT HOWEVER SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN PCPN COVERAGE
LOCATION WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE. AT THIS POINT ECMWF HAVING BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT RAIN LOCATION SO WILL FOLLOW IN THE NEAR TERM.

SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW TONIGHT WHICH WILL REACH
WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES BY MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
INTERACT WITH SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN EASTERN MT TO
INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION. CURRENTLY THERE IS SOME
CAPPING HOWEVER APPROACHING WAVE SHOULD BREAK CAP WITH STORMS
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZING ALONG MT/DAKOTAS BORDER THIS EVENING
PROPAGATING EAST OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
AT LEAST FROM MODEL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND CAPE
WITH WAVE TO LIKELY KEEP STORMS GOING AND COULD REMAIN STRONG
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TIMING/COVERAGE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT
TRENDS ARE IMPACTS IN OUR FA NEAR OR AFT MIDNIGHT. WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID NOT INCREASE POPS AT THIS POINT. HIGH RES RAPID
REFRESH MODEL INDICATING POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONGER WINDS WITH
POSSIBLE BOWING COMPLEX REACHING CENTRAL DAKOTAS AROUND 06Z ALONG
COLD FRONT. SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN PUSHED FAR EAST AS THE
VALLEY SO STORMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LATE TONIGHT.

FRONT WILL PUSH AS FAR EAST AS THE VALLEY ON FRIDAY MID DAY WITH
MAIN PCPN THREAT LINGERING IN THE AM. HOW FAR EAST WILL DETERMINE
WHERE STORMS AGAIN COULD INITIATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR EASTERN
COULD BE ON THE EDGE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. COLD ADVECTION NOT
SIGNIFICANT AND SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

LOOKS QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FA IN BETWEEN FRONTAL PASSAGES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH FA SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW
SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN FA. AIRMASS MORE STABLE WITH THIS BOUNDARY
SO THUNDERSTORMS LESS OF A THREAT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH AS COLD POOL DESCENDS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING OF
THE FRONT SE HALF OF THE FA COULD STILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH FA WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL BLO AVERAGE WITH SOME SPOTTY SHRA ALONG FRONT.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 500MB NW
FLOW ALOFT AS WESTERN US UNDER RIDGE AND EASTERN US UNDER THE
TROUGH. THAT GIVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL TREND FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL
TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. KEPT THE ISO
POCKETS OF SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER WED AND THU AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
PUSH EAST AND HERE MAYBE A POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ABLE TO RIDE RIDGE
AND BRING PCPN TO THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. VISIBLE LOOP INDICATED CLOUD
DECKS MOVING EAST OVER EASTERN ND AND FAR NORTHERN MN. CIGS HAVE
LOWERED TO AROUND 35 HUNDRED FT IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WITH PRECIP
MOVING IN. CIGS OVER NORTHERN MN WAS AROUND 11 THOUSAND FT. ELSEWHERE
MVFR CIGS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND
EXPANDING NORTH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES







000
FXUS63 KFGF 250000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

RADARS INDICATED BAND OF PRECIP MOVING INTO BARNES, GRIGGS, AND
NELSON COUNTIES. PRECIP WAS MOVING EAST ABOUT 50 KNOTS. LIGHTNING
NETWORK INDICATED ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED TO NO RECENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES. EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND DISSIPATING. NO
CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS T CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT HOWEVER SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN PCPN COVERAGE
LOCATION WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE. AT THIS POINT ECMWF HAVING BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT RAIN LOCATION SO WILL FOLLOW IN THE NEAR TERM.

SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW TONIGHT WHICH WILL REACH
WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES BY MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
INTERACT WITH SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN EASTERN MT TO
INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION. CURRENTLY THERE IS SOME
CAPPING HOWEVER APPROACHING WAVE SHOULD BREAK CAP WITH STORMS
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZING ALONG MT/DAKOTAS BORDER THIS EVENING
PROPAGATING EAST OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
AT LEAST FROM MODEL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND CAPE
WITH WAVE TO LIKELY KEEP STORMS GOING AND COULD REMAIN STRONG
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TIMING/COVERAGE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT
TRENDS ARE IMPACTS IN OUR FA NEAR OR AFT MIDNIGHT. WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID NOT INCREASE POPS AT THIS POINT. HIGH RES RAPID
REFRESH MODEL INDICATING POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONGER WINDS WITH
POSSIBLE BOWING COMPLEX REACHING CENTRAL DAKOTAS AROUND 06Z ALONG
COLD FRONT. SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN PUSHED FAR EAST AS THE
VALLEY SO STORMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LATE TONIGHT.

FRONT WILL PUSH AS FAR EAST AS THE VALLEY ON FRIDAY MID DAY WITH
MAIN PCPN THREAT LINGERING IN THE AM. HOW FAR EAST WILL DETERMINE
WHERE STORMS AGAIN COULD INITIATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR EASTERN
COULD BE ON THE EDGE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. COLD ADVECTION NOT
SIGNIFICANT AND SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

LOOKS QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FA IN BETWEEN FRONTAL PASSAGES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH FA SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW
SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN FA. AIRMASS MORE STABLE WITH THIS BOUNDARY
SO THUNDERSTORMS LESS OF A THREAT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH AS COLD POOL DESCENDS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING OF
THE FRONT SE HALF OF THE FA COULD STILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH FA WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL BLO AVERAGE WITH SOME SPOTTY SHRA ALONG FRONT.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 500MB NW
FLOW ALOFT AS WESTERN US UNDER RIDGE AND EASTERN US UNDER THE
TROUGH. THAT GIVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL TREND FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL
TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. KEPT THE ISO
POCKETS OF SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER WED AND THU AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
PUSH EAST AND HERE MAYBE A POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ABLE TO RIDE RIDGE
AND BRING PCPN TO THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. VISIBLE LOOP INDICATED CLOUD
DECKS MOVING EAST OVER EASTERN ND AND FAR NORTHERN MN. CIGS HAVE
LOWERED TO AROUND 35 HUNDRED FT IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WITH PRECIP
MOVING IN. CIGS OVER NORTHERN MN WAS AROUND 11 THOUSAND FT. ELSEWHERE
MVFR CIGS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND
EXPANDING NORTH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES







000
FXUS63 KFGF 250000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

RADARS INDICATED BAND OF PRECIP MOVING INTO BARNES, GRIGGS, AND
NELSON COUNTIES. PRECIP WAS MOVING EAST ABOUT 50 KNOTS. LIGHTNING
NETWORK INDICATED ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED TO NO RECENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES. EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND DISSIPATING. NO
CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS T CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT HOWEVER SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN PCPN COVERAGE
LOCATION WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE. AT THIS POINT ECMWF HAVING BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT RAIN LOCATION SO WILL FOLLOW IN THE NEAR TERM.

SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW TONIGHT WHICH WILL REACH
WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES BY MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
INTERACT WITH SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN EASTERN MT TO
INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION. CURRENTLY THERE IS SOME
CAPPING HOWEVER APPROACHING WAVE SHOULD BREAK CAP WITH STORMS
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZING ALONG MT/DAKOTAS BORDER THIS EVENING
PROPAGATING EAST OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
AT LEAST FROM MODEL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND CAPE
WITH WAVE TO LIKELY KEEP STORMS GOING AND COULD REMAIN STRONG
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TIMING/COVERAGE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT
TRENDS ARE IMPACTS IN OUR FA NEAR OR AFT MIDNIGHT. WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID NOT INCREASE POPS AT THIS POINT. HIGH RES RAPID
REFRESH MODEL INDICATING POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONGER WINDS WITH
POSSIBLE BOWING COMPLEX REACHING CENTRAL DAKOTAS AROUND 06Z ALONG
COLD FRONT. SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN PUSHED FAR EAST AS THE
VALLEY SO STORMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LATE TONIGHT.

FRONT WILL PUSH AS FAR EAST AS THE VALLEY ON FRIDAY MID DAY WITH
MAIN PCPN THREAT LINGERING IN THE AM. HOW FAR EAST WILL DETERMINE
WHERE STORMS AGAIN COULD INITIATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR EASTERN
COULD BE ON THE EDGE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. COLD ADVECTION NOT
SIGNIFICANT AND SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

LOOKS QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FA IN BETWEEN FRONTAL PASSAGES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH FA SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW
SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN FA. AIRMASS MORE STABLE WITH THIS BOUNDARY
SO THUNDERSTORMS LESS OF A THREAT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH AS COLD POOL DESCENDS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING OF
THE FRONT SE HALF OF THE FA COULD STILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH FA WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL BLO AVERAGE WITH SOME SPOTTY SHRA ALONG FRONT.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 500MB NW
FLOW ALOFT AS WESTERN US UNDER RIDGE AND EASTERN US UNDER THE
TROUGH. THAT GIVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL TREND FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL
TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. KEPT THE ISO
POCKETS OF SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER WED AND THU AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
PUSH EAST AND HERE MAYBE A POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ABLE TO RIDE RIDGE
AND BRING PCPN TO THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. VISIBLE LOOP INDICATED CLOUD
DECKS MOVING EAST OVER EASTERN ND AND FAR NORTHERN MN. CIGS HAVE
LOWERED TO AROUND 35 HUNDRED FT IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WITH PRECIP
MOVING IN. CIGS OVER NORTHERN MN WAS AROUND 11 THOUSAND FT. ELSEWHERE
MVFR CIGS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND
EXPANDING NORTH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES







000
FXUS63 KFGF 250000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

RADARS INDICATED BAND OF PRECIP MOVING INTO BARNES, GRIGGS, AND
NELSON COUNTIES. PRECIP WAS MOVING EAST ABOUT 50 KNOTS. LIGHTNING
NETWORK INDICATED ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED TO NO RECENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES. EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND DISSIPATING. NO
CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS T CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT HOWEVER SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN PCPN COVERAGE
LOCATION WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE. AT THIS POINT ECMWF HAVING BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT RAIN LOCATION SO WILL FOLLOW IN THE NEAR TERM.

SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW TONIGHT WHICH WILL REACH
WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES BY MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
INTERACT WITH SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN EASTERN MT TO
INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION. CURRENTLY THERE IS SOME
CAPPING HOWEVER APPROACHING WAVE SHOULD BREAK CAP WITH STORMS
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZING ALONG MT/DAKOTAS BORDER THIS EVENING
PROPAGATING EAST OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
AT LEAST FROM MODEL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND CAPE
WITH WAVE TO LIKELY KEEP STORMS GOING AND COULD REMAIN STRONG
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TIMING/COVERAGE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT
TRENDS ARE IMPACTS IN OUR FA NEAR OR AFT MIDNIGHT. WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID NOT INCREASE POPS AT THIS POINT. HIGH RES RAPID
REFRESH MODEL INDICATING POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONGER WINDS WITH
POSSIBLE BOWING COMPLEX REACHING CENTRAL DAKOTAS AROUND 06Z ALONG
COLD FRONT. SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN PUSHED FAR EAST AS THE
VALLEY SO STORMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LATE TONIGHT.

FRONT WILL PUSH AS FAR EAST AS THE VALLEY ON FRIDAY MID DAY WITH
MAIN PCPN THREAT LINGERING IN THE AM. HOW FAR EAST WILL DETERMINE
WHERE STORMS AGAIN COULD INITIATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR EASTERN
COULD BE ON THE EDGE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. COLD ADVECTION NOT
SIGNIFICANT AND SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

LOOKS QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FA IN BETWEEN FRONTAL PASSAGES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH FA SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW
SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN FA. AIRMASS MORE STABLE WITH THIS BOUNDARY
SO THUNDERSTORMS LESS OF A THREAT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH AS COLD POOL DESCENDS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING OF
THE FRONT SE HALF OF THE FA COULD STILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH FA WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL BLO AVERAGE WITH SOME SPOTTY SHRA ALONG FRONT.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 500MB NW
FLOW ALOFT AS WESTERN US UNDER RIDGE AND EASTERN US UNDER THE
TROUGH. THAT GIVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL TREND FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL
TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. KEPT THE ISO
POCKETS OF SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER WED AND THU AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
PUSH EAST AND HERE MAYBE A POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ABLE TO RIDE RIDGE
AND BRING PCPN TO THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. VISIBLE LOOP INDICATED CLOUD
DECKS MOVING EAST OVER EASTERN ND AND FAR NORTHERN MN. CIGS HAVE
LOWERED TO AROUND 35 HUNDRED FT IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WITH PRECIP
MOVING IN. CIGS OVER NORTHERN MN WAS AROUND 11 THOUSAND FT. ELSEWHERE
MVFR CIGS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND
EXPANDING NORTH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES







000
FXUS63 KBIS 242356
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
656 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF GOLDEN
VALLEY...BILLINGS...STARK...SLOPE...BOWMAN...HETTINGER AND ADAMS
COUNTIES UNTIL 03 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE 20 UTC AND INCOMING 21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...AND WILL LEAN
HEAVILY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. DID COORDINATE WITH SPC AT 2230 UTC REGARDING A
POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST. WILL HOLD OFF FOR
NOW AS ALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE. HOWEVER...SHOULD
CONVECTION STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES BAKER...A WATCH EXPANSION
MAY BE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 03 UTC. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AROUND 00-01 UTC AS STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MONTANA COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PROPAGATE
EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSE TO THE 19 UTC HRRR SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA TO THE WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. AT
UPPER LEVELS...STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPEARS
TO BE FOCUSED MORE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT PLENTY OF CAPE
AND SHEAR IN PLACE SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MID-LEVEL CAP WAS BUILDING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
WERE MOVING EAST AT 30-35 MPH...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW - BUT NOT SURFACE-BASED.

THE MAIN ACTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT
BEST CAPE IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND THE BEST SHEAR IS
RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH.

EXPECTING BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AND BEST CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL FROM MID/LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND BREEZY WEST WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SAT...WILL
DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN MN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WITH THE LOW COUPLED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BOTH COMBINE WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH SAT
MORNING...WITH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...THEN
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY GIVING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REGION A DRY WEATHER SPELL. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE RIDGE RIDER S/WVS MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST...WILL
SEE SPOTTY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING MID-WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE END OF JULY SAT-
MON...IN THE 70S...THEN WARM INTO THE 80S TUE-THURS WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SEE TAF FORECASTS FOR THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND DETAILS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 242356
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
656 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF GOLDEN
VALLEY...BILLINGS...STARK...SLOPE...BOWMAN...HETTINGER AND ADAMS
COUNTIES UNTIL 03 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE 20 UTC AND INCOMING 21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...AND WILL LEAN
HEAVILY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. DID COORDINATE WITH SPC AT 2230 UTC REGARDING A
POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST. WILL HOLD OFF FOR
NOW AS ALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE. HOWEVER...SHOULD
CONVECTION STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES BAKER...A WATCH EXPANSION
MAY BE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 03 UTC. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AROUND 00-01 UTC AS STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MONTANA COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PROPAGATE
EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSE TO THE 19 UTC HRRR SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA TO THE WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. AT
UPPER LEVELS...STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPEARS
TO BE FOCUSED MORE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT PLENTY OF CAPE
AND SHEAR IN PLACE SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MID-LEVEL CAP WAS BUILDING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
WERE MOVING EAST AT 30-35 MPH...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW - BUT NOT SURFACE-BASED.

THE MAIN ACTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT
BEST CAPE IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND THE BEST SHEAR IS
RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH.

EXPECTING BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AND BEST CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL FROM MID/LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND BREEZY WEST WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SAT...WILL
DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN MN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WITH THE LOW COUPLED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BOTH COMBINE WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH SAT
MORNING...WITH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...THEN
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY GIVING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REGION A DRY WEATHER SPELL. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE RIDGE RIDER S/WVS MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST...WILL
SEE SPOTTY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING MID-WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE END OF JULY SAT-
MON...IN THE 70S...THEN WARM INTO THE 80S TUE-THURS WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SEE TAF FORECASTS FOR THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND DETAILS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 242356
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
656 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF GOLDEN
VALLEY...BILLINGS...STARK...SLOPE...BOWMAN...HETTINGER AND ADAMS
COUNTIES UNTIL 03 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE 20 UTC AND INCOMING 21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...AND WILL LEAN
HEAVILY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. DID COORDINATE WITH SPC AT 2230 UTC REGARDING A
POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST. WILL HOLD OFF FOR
NOW AS ALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE. HOWEVER...SHOULD
CONVECTION STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES BAKER...A WATCH EXPANSION
MAY BE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 03 UTC. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AROUND 00-01 UTC AS STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MONTANA COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PROPAGATE
EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSE TO THE 19 UTC HRRR SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA TO THE WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. AT
UPPER LEVELS...STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPEARS
TO BE FOCUSED MORE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT PLENTY OF CAPE
AND SHEAR IN PLACE SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MID-LEVEL CAP WAS BUILDING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
WERE MOVING EAST AT 30-35 MPH...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW - BUT NOT SURFACE-BASED.

THE MAIN ACTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT
BEST CAPE IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND THE BEST SHEAR IS
RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH.

EXPECTING BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AND BEST CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL FROM MID/LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND BREEZY WEST WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SAT...WILL
DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN MN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WITH THE LOW COUPLED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BOTH COMBINE WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH SAT
MORNING...WITH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...THEN
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY GIVING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REGION A DRY WEATHER SPELL. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE RIDGE RIDER S/WVS MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST...WILL
SEE SPOTTY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING MID-WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE END OF JULY SAT-
MON...IN THE 70S...THEN WARM INTO THE 80S TUE-THURS WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SEE TAF FORECASTS FOR THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND DETAILS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 242356
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
656 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF GOLDEN
VALLEY...BILLINGS...STARK...SLOPE...BOWMAN...HETTINGER AND ADAMS
COUNTIES UNTIL 03 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE 20 UTC AND INCOMING 21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...AND WILL LEAN
HEAVILY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. DID COORDINATE WITH SPC AT 2230 UTC REGARDING A
POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST. WILL HOLD OFF FOR
NOW AS ALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE. HOWEVER...SHOULD
CONVECTION STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES BAKER...A WATCH EXPANSION
MAY BE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 03 UTC. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AROUND 00-01 UTC AS STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MONTANA COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PROPAGATE
EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSE TO THE 19 UTC HRRR SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA TO THE WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. AT
UPPER LEVELS...STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPEARS
TO BE FOCUSED MORE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT PLENTY OF CAPE
AND SHEAR IN PLACE SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MID-LEVEL CAP WAS BUILDING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
WERE MOVING EAST AT 30-35 MPH...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW - BUT NOT SURFACE-BASED.

THE MAIN ACTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT
BEST CAPE IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND THE BEST SHEAR IS
RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH.

EXPECTING BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AND BEST CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL FROM MID/LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND BREEZY WEST WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SAT...WILL
DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN MN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WITH THE LOW COUPLED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BOTH COMBINE WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH SAT
MORNING...WITH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...THEN
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY GIVING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REGION A DRY WEATHER SPELL. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE RIDGE RIDER S/WVS MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST...WILL
SEE SPOTTY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING MID-WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE END OF JULY SAT-
MON...IN THE 70S...THEN WARM INTO THE 80S TUE-THURS WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SEE TAF FORECASTS FOR THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND DETAILS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 242240
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
540 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE 20 UTC AND INCOMING 21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...AND WILL LEAN
HEAVILY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. DID COORDINATE WITH SPC AT 2230 UTC REGARDING A
POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST. WILL HOLD OFF FOR
NOW AS ALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE. HOWEVER...SHOULD
CONVECTION STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES BAKER...A WATCH EXPANSION
MAY BE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 03 UTC. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AROUND 00-01 UTC AS STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MONTANA COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PROPAGATE
EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSE TO THE 19 UTC HRRR SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA TO THE WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. AT
UPPER LEVELS...STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPEARS
TO BE FOCUSED MORE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT PLENTY OF CAPE
AND SHEAR IN PLACE SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MID-LEVEL CAP WAS BUILDING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
WERE MOVING EAST AT 30-35 MPH...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW - BUT NOT SURFACE-BASED.

THE MAIN ACTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT
BEST CAPE IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND THE BEST SHEAR IS
RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH.

EXPECTING BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AND BEST CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL FROM MID/LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND BREEZY WEST WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SAT...WILL
DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN MN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WITH THE LOW COUPLED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BOTH COMBINE WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH SAT
MORNING...WITH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...THEN
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY GIVING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REGION A DRY WEATHER SPELL. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE RIDGE RIDER S/WVS MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST...WILL
SEE SPOTTY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING MID-WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE END OF JULY SAT-
MON...IN THE 70S...THEN WARM INTO THE 80S TUE-THURS WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SEE TAF FORECASTS FOR THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND DETAILS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 242240
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
540 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE 20 UTC AND INCOMING 21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...AND WILL LEAN
HEAVILY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. DID COORDINATE WITH SPC AT 2230 UTC REGARDING A
POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST. WILL HOLD OFF FOR
NOW AS ALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE. HOWEVER...SHOULD
CONVECTION STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES BAKER...A WATCH EXPANSION
MAY BE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 03 UTC. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AROUND 00-01 UTC AS STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MONTANA COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PROPAGATE
EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSE TO THE 19 UTC HRRR SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA TO THE WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. AT
UPPER LEVELS...STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPEARS
TO BE FOCUSED MORE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT PLENTY OF CAPE
AND SHEAR IN PLACE SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MID-LEVEL CAP WAS BUILDING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
WERE MOVING EAST AT 30-35 MPH...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW - BUT NOT SURFACE-BASED.

THE MAIN ACTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT
BEST CAPE IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND THE BEST SHEAR IS
RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH.

EXPECTING BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AND BEST CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL FROM MID/LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND BREEZY WEST WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SAT...WILL
DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN MN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WITH THE LOW COUPLED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BOTH COMBINE WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH SAT
MORNING...WITH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...THEN
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY GIVING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REGION A DRY WEATHER SPELL. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE RIDGE RIDER S/WVS MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST...WILL
SEE SPOTTY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING MID-WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE END OF JULY SAT-
MON...IN THE 70S...THEN WARM INTO THE 80S TUE-THURS WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SEE TAF FORECASTS FOR THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND DETAILS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 242110
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 03 UTC. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AROUND 00-01 UTC AS STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MONTANA COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PROPAGATE
EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSE TO THE 19 UTC HRRR SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA TO THE WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. AT
UPPER LEVELS...STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPEARS
TO BE FOCUSED MORE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT PLENTY OF CAPE
AND SHEAR IN PLACE SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MID-LEVEL CAP WAS BUILDING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
WERE MOVING EAST AT 30-35 MPH...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW - BUT NOT SURFACE-BASED.

THE MAIN ACTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT
BEST CAPE IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND THE BEST SHEAR IS
RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH.

EXPECTING BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AND BEST CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL FROM MID/LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND BREEZY WEST WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SAT...WILL
DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN MN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WITH THE LOW COUPLED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BOTH COMBINE WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH SAT
MORNING...WITH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...THEN
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY GIVING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REGION A DRY WEATHER SPELL. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE RIDGE RIDER S/WVS MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST...WILL
SEE SPOTTY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING MID-WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE END OF JULY SAT-
MON...IN THE 70S...THEN WARM INTO THE 80S TUE-THURS WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MVFR CIGS LINGERING FROM KDIK TO KBIS AND KEPT THOSE CIGS IN THE
TAFS UNTIL AROUND 20Z-21Z. OTHERWISE...MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL
BE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MODERATE GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH/FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 22Z-00Z...THEN MOVE EAST TO KMOT/KBIS AROUND 06Z...AND
TO KJMS AROUND 09Z-12Z. THERMAL CAP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ALONG
AND BEHIND IT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ND AT KISN/KMOT. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREAT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 242110
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 03 UTC. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AROUND 00-01 UTC AS STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MONTANA COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PROPAGATE
EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSE TO THE 19 UTC HRRR SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA TO THE WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. AT
UPPER LEVELS...STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPEARS
TO BE FOCUSED MORE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT PLENTY OF CAPE
AND SHEAR IN PLACE SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MID-LEVEL CAP WAS BUILDING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
WERE MOVING EAST AT 30-35 MPH...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW - BUT NOT SURFACE-BASED.

THE MAIN ACTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT
BEST CAPE IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND THE BEST SHEAR IS
RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH.

EXPECTING BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AND BEST CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL FROM MID/LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND BREEZY WEST WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SAT...WILL
DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN MN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WITH THE LOW COUPLED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BOTH COMBINE WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH SAT
MORNING...WITH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...THEN
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY GIVING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REGION A DRY WEATHER SPELL. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE RIDGE RIDER S/WVS MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST...WILL
SEE SPOTTY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING MID-WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE END OF JULY SAT-
MON...IN THE 70S...THEN WARM INTO THE 80S TUE-THURS WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MVFR CIGS LINGERING FROM KDIK TO KBIS AND KEPT THOSE CIGS IN THE
TAFS UNTIL AROUND 20Z-21Z. OTHERWISE...MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL
BE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MODERATE GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH/FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 22Z-00Z...THEN MOVE EAST TO KMOT/KBIS AROUND 06Z...AND
TO KJMS AROUND 09Z-12Z. THERMAL CAP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ALONG
AND BEHIND IT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ND AT KISN/KMOT. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREAT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 242110
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 03 UTC. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AROUND 00-01 UTC AS STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MONTANA COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PROPAGATE
EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSE TO THE 19 UTC HRRR SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA TO THE WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. AT
UPPER LEVELS...STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPEARS
TO BE FOCUSED MORE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT PLENTY OF CAPE
AND SHEAR IN PLACE SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MID-LEVEL CAP WAS BUILDING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
WERE MOVING EAST AT 30-35 MPH...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW - BUT NOT SURFACE-BASED.

THE MAIN ACTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT
BEST CAPE IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND THE BEST SHEAR IS
RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH.

EXPECTING BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AND BEST CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL FROM MID/LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND BREEZY WEST WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SAT...WILL
DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN MN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WITH THE LOW COUPLED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BOTH COMBINE WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH SAT
MORNING...WITH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...THEN
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY GIVING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REGION A DRY WEATHER SPELL. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE RIDGE RIDER S/WVS MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST...WILL
SEE SPOTTY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING MID-WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE END OF JULY SAT-
MON...IN THE 70S...THEN WARM INTO THE 80S TUE-THURS WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MVFR CIGS LINGERING FROM KDIK TO KBIS AND KEPT THOSE CIGS IN THE
TAFS UNTIL AROUND 20Z-21Z. OTHERWISE...MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL
BE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MODERATE GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH/FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 22Z-00Z...THEN MOVE EAST TO KMOT/KBIS AROUND 06Z...AND
TO KJMS AROUND 09Z-12Z. THERMAL CAP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ALONG
AND BEHIND IT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ND AT KISN/KMOT. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREAT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 242110
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 03 UTC. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AROUND 00-01 UTC AS STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MONTANA COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PROPAGATE
EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSE TO THE 19 UTC HRRR SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA TO THE WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. AT
UPPER LEVELS...STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPEARS
TO BE FOCUSED MORE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT PLENTY OF CAPE
AND SHEAR IN PLACE SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MID-LEVEL CAP WAS BUILDING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
WERE MOVING EAST AT 30-35 MPH...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW - BUT NOT SURFACE-BASED.

THE MAIN ACTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT
BEST CAPE IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND THE BEST SHEAR IS
RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH.

EXPECTING BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AND BEST CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL FROM MID/LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND BREEZY WEST WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SAT...WILL
DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN MN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WITH THE LOW COUPLED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BOTH COMBINE WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH SAT
MORNING...WITH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...THEN
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY GIVING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REGION A DRY WEATHER SPELL. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE RIDGE RIDER S/WVS MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST...WILL
SEE SPOTTY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING MID-WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE END OF JULY SAT-
MON...IN THE 70S...THEN WARM INTO THE 80S TUE-THURS WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MVFR CIGS LINGERING FROM KDIK TO KBIS AND KEPT THOSE CIGS IN THE
TAFS UNTIL AROUND 20Z-21Z. OTHERWISE...MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL
BE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MODERATE GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH/FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 22Z-00Z...THEN MOVE EAST TO KMOT/KBIS AROUND 06Z...AND
TO KJMS AROUND 09Z-12Z. THERMAL CAP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ALONG
AND BEHIND IT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ND AT KISN/KMOT. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREAT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KFGF 242018
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
318 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS T CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT HOWEVER SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN PCPN COVERAGE
LOCATION WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE. AT THIS POINT ECMWF HAVING BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT RAIN LOCATION SO WILL FOLLOW IN THE NEAR TERM.

SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW TONIGHT WHICH WILL REACH
WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES BY MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
INTERACT WITH SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN EASTERN MT TO
INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION. CURRENTLY THERE IS SOME
CAPPING HOWEVER APPROACHING WAVE SHOULD BREAK CAP WITH STORMS
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZING ALONG MT/DAKOTAS BORDER THIS EVENING
PROPAGATING EAST OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
AT LEAST FROM MODEL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND CAPE
WITH WAVE TO LIKELY KEEP STORMS GOING AND COULD REMAIN STRONG
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TIMING/COVERAGE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT
TRENDS ARE IMPACTS IN OUR FA NEAR OR AFT MIDNIGHT. WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID NOT INCREASE POPS AT THIS POINT. HIGH RES RAPID
REFRESH MODEL INDICATING POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONGER WINDS WITH
POSSIBLE BOWING COMPLEX REACHING CENTRAL DAKOTAS AROUND 06Z ALONG
COLD FRONT. SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN PUSHED FAR EAST AS THE
VALLEY SO STORMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LATE TONIGHT.

FRONT WILL PUSH AS FAR EAST AS THE VALLEY ON FRIDAY MID DAY WITH
MAIN PCPN THREAT LINGERING IN THE AM. HOW FAR EAST WILL DETERMINE
WHERE STORMS AGAIN COULD INITIATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR EASTERN
COULD BE ON THE EDGE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. COLD ADVECTION NOT
SIGNIFICANT AND SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

LOOKS QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FA IN BETWEEN FRONTAL PASSAGES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH FA SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW
SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN FA. AIRMASS MORE STABLE WITH THIS BOUNDARY
SO THUNDERSTORMS LESS OF A THREAT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH AS COLD POOL DESCENDS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING OF
THE FRONT SE HALF OF THE FA COULD STILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO AVERAGE.


SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH FA WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL BLO AVERAGE WITH SOME SPOTTY SHRA ALONG FRONT.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 500MB NW
FLOW ALOFT AS WESTERN US UNDER RIDGE AND EASTERN US UNDER THE
TROUGH. THAT GIVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL TREND FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL
TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. KEPT THE ISO
POCKETS OF SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER WED AND THU AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
PUSH EAST AND HERE MAYBE A POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ABLE TO RIDE RIDGE
AND BRING PCPN TO THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ERODING PCPN ALLOWING FOR MIXING TO THE SFC ON BACKSIDE WITH GUSTY
WINDS 20 TO 40KT. IMPACT AT FARGO FOR THE EARLY AFTN. OTHERWISE VFR
W/ SE WINDS 10-15 GUSTS 20-25KTS THRU THE AFTN. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING ACROSS DVL AND GFK AND TVF.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 242018
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
318 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS T CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT HOWEVER SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN PCPN COVERAGE
LOCATION WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE. AT THIS POINT ECMWF HAVING BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT RAIN LOCATION SO WILL FOLLOW IN THE NEAR TERM.

SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW TONIGHT WHICH WILL REACH
WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES BY MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
INTERACT WITH SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN EASTERN MT TO
INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION. CURRENTLY THERE IS SOME
CAPPING HOWEVER APPROACHING WAVE SHOULD BREAK CAP WITH STORMS
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZING ALONG MT/DAKOTAS BORDER THIS EVENING
PROPAGATING EAST OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
AT LEAST FROM MODEL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND CAPE
WITH WAVE TO LIKELY KEEP STORMS GOING AND COULD REMAIN STRONG
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TIMING/COVERAGE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT
TRENDS ARE IMPACTS IN OUR FA NEAR OR AFT MIDNIGHT. WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID NOT INCREASE POPS AT THIS POINT. HIGH RES RAPID
REFRESH MODEL INDICATING POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONGER WINDS WITH
POSSIBLE BOWING COMPLEX REACHING CENTRAL DAKOTAS AROUND 06Z ALONG
COLD FRONT. SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN PUSHED FAR EAST AS THE
VALLEY SO STORMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LATE TONIGHT.

FRONT WILL PUSH AS FAR EAST AS THE VALLEY ON FRIDAY MID DAY WITH
MAIN PCPN THREAT LINGERING IN THE AM. HOW FAR EAST WILL DETERMINE
WHERE STORMS AGAIN COULD INITIATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR EASTERN
COULD BE ON THE EDGE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. COLD ADVECTION NOT
SIGNIFICANT AND SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

LOOKS QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FA IN BETWEEN FRONTAL PASSAGES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH FA SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW
SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN FA. AIRMASS MORE STABLE WITH THIS BOUNDARY
SO THUNDERSTORMS LESS OF A THREAT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH AS COLD POOL DESCENDS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING OF
THE FRONT SE HALF OF THE FA COULD STILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO AVERAGE.


SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH FA WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL BLO AVERAGE WITH SOME SPOTTY SHRA ALONG FRONT.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 500MB NW
FLOW ALOFT AS WESTERN US UNDER RIDGE AND EASTERN US UNDER THE
TROUGH. THAT GIVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL TREND FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL
TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. KEPT THE ISO
POCKETS OF SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER WED AND THU AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
PUSH EAST AND HERE MAYBE A POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ABLE TO RIDE RIDGE
AND BRING PCPN TO THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ERODING PCPN ALLOWING FOR MIXING TO THE SFC ON BACKSIDE WITH GUSTY
WINDS 20 TO 40KT. IMPACT AT FARGO FOR THE EARLY AFTN. OTHERWISE VFR
W/ SE WINDS 10-15 GUSTS 20-25KTS THRU THE AFTN. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING ACROSS DVL AND GFK AND TVF.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 242018
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
318 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS T CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT HOWEVER SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN PCPN COVERAGE
LOCATION WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE. AT THIS POINT ECMWF HAVING BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT RAIN LOCATION SO WILL FOLLOW IN THE NEAR TERM.

SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW TONIGHT WHICH WILL REACH
WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES BY MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
INTERACT WITH SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN EASTERN MT TO
INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION. CURRENTLY THERE IS SOME
CAPPING HOWEVER APPROACHING WAVE SHOULD BREAK CAP WITH STORMS
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZING ALONG MT/DAKOTAS BORDER THIS EVENING
PROPAGATING EAST OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
AT LEAST FROM MODEL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND CAPE
WITH WAVE TO LIKELY KEEP STORMS GOING AND COULD REMAIN STRONG
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TIMING/COVERAGE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT
TRENDS ARE IMPACTS IN OUR FA NEAR OR AFT MIDNIGHT. WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID NOT INCREASE POPS AT THIS POINT. HIGH RES RAPID
REFRESH MODEL INDICATING POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONGER WINDS WITH
POSSIBLE BOWING COMPLEX REACHING CENTRAL DAKOTAS AROUND 06Z ALONG
COLD FRONT. SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN PUSHED FAR EAST AS THE
VALLEY SO STORMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LATE TONIGHT.

FRONT WILL PUSH AS FAR EAST AS THE VALLEY ON FRIDAY MID DAY WITH
MAIN PCPN THREAT LINGERING IN THE AM. HOW FAR EAST WILL DETERMINE
WHERE STORMS AGAIN COULD INITIATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR EASTERN
COULD BE ON THE EDGE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. COLD ADVECTION NOT
SIGNIFICANT AND SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

LOOKS QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FA IN BETWEEN FRONTAL PASSAGES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH FA SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW
SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN FA. AIRMASS MORE STABLE WITH THIS BOUNDARY
SO THUNDERSTORMS LESS OF A THREAT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH AS COLD POOL DESCENDS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING OF
THE FRONT SE HALF OF THE FA COULD STILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO AVERAGE.


SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH FA WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL BLO AVERAGE WITH SOME SPOTTY SHRA ALONG FRONT.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 500MB NW
FLOW ALOFT AS WESTERN US UNDER RIDGE AND EASTERN US UNDER THE
TROUGH. THAT GIVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL TREND FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL
TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. KEPT THE ISO
POCKETS OF SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER WED AND THU AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
PUSH EAST AND HERE MAYBE A POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ABLE TO RIDE RIDGE
AND BRING PCPN TO THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ERODING PCPN ALLOWING FOR MIXING TO THE SFC ON BACKSIDE WITH GUSTY
WINDS 20 TO 40KT. IMPACT AT FARGO FOR THE EARLY AFTN. OTHERWISE VFR
W/ SE WINDS 10-15 GUSTS 20-25KTS THRU THE AFTN. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING ACROSS DVL AND GFK AND TVF.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 242018
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
318 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS T CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT HOWEVER SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN PCPN COVERAGE
LOCATION WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE. AT THIS POINT ECMWF HAVING BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT RAIN LOCATION SO WILL FOLLOW IN THE NEAR TERM.

SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW TONIGHT WHICH WILL REACH
WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES BY MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
INTERACT WITH SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN EASTERN MT TO
INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION. CURRENTLY THERE IS SOME
CAPPING HOWEVER APPROACHING WAVE SHOULD BREAK CAP WITH STORMS
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZING ALONG MT/DAKOTAS BORDER THIS EVENING
PROPAGATING EAST OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
AT LEAST FROM MODEL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND CAPE
WITH WAVE TO LIKELY KEEP STORMS GOING AND COULD REMAIN STRONG
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TIMING/COVERAGE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT
TRENDS ARE IMPACTS IN OUR FA NEAR OR AFT MIDNIGHT. WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID NOT INCREASE POPS AT THIS POINT. HIGH RES RAPID
REFRESH MODEL INDICATING POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONGER WINDS WITH
POSSIBLE BOWING COMPLEX REACHING CENTRAL DAKOTAS AROUND 06Z ALONG
COLD FRONT. SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN PUSHED FAR EAST AS THE
VALLEY SO STORMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LATE TONIGHT.

FRONT WILL PUSH AS FAR EAST AS THE VALLEY ON FRIDAY MID DAY WITH
MAIN PCPN THREAT LINGERING IN THE AM. HOW FAR EAST WILL DETERMINE
WHERE STORMS AGAIN COULD INITIATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR EASTERN
COULD BE ON THE EDGE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. COLD ADVECTION NOT
SIGNIFICANT AND SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

LOOKS QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FA IN BETWEEN FRONTAL PASSAGES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH FA SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW
SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN FA. AIRMASS MORE STABLE WITH THIS BOUNDARY
SO THUNDERSTORMS LESS OF A THREAT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH AS COLD POOL DESCENDS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING OF
THE FRONT SE HALF OF THE FA COULD STILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO AVERAGE.


SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH FA WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL BLO AVERAGE WITH SOME SPOTTY SHRA ALONG FRONT.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 500MB NW
FLOW ALOFT AS WESTERN US UNDER RIDGE AND EASTERN US UNDER THE
TROUGH. THAT GIVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL TREND FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL
TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. KEPT THE ISO
POCKETS OF SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER WED AND THU AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
PUSH EAST AND HERE MAYBE A POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ABLE TO RIDE RIDGE
AND BRING PCPN TO THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ERODING PCPN ALLOWING FOR MIXING TO THE SFC ON BACKSIDE WITH GUSTY
WINDS 20 TO 40KT. IMPACT AT FARGO FOR THE EARLY AFTN. OTHERWISE VFR
W/ SE WINDS 10-15 GUSTS 20-25KTS THRU THE AFTN. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING ACROSS DVL AND GFK AND TVF.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 242010
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA TO THE WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. AT
UPPER LEVELS...STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPEARS
TO BE FOCUSED MORE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT PLENTY OF CAPE
AND SHEAR IN PLACE SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MID-LEVEL CAP WAS BUILDING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
WERE MOVING EAST AT 30-35 MPH...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW - BUT NOT SURFACE-BASED.

THE MAIN ACTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT
BEST CAPE IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND THE BEST SHEAR IS
RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH.

EXPECTING BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AND BEST CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL FROM MID/LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND BREEZY WEST WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SAT...WILL
DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN MN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WITH THE LOW COUPLED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BOTH COMBINE WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH SAT
MORNING...WITH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...THEN
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY GIVING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REGION A DRY WEATHER SPELL. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE RIDGE RIDER S/WVS MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST...WILL
SEE SPOTTY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING MID-WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE END OF JULY SAT-
MON...IN THE 70S...THEN WARM INTO THE 80S TUE-THURS WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MVFR CIGS LINGERING FROM KDIK TO KBIS AND KEPT THOSE CIGS IN THE
TAFS UNTIL AROUND 20Z-21Z. OTHERWISE...MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL
BE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MODERATE GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH/FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 22Z-00Z...THEN MOVE EAST TO KMOT/KBIS AROUND 06Z...AND
TO KJMS AROUND 09Z-12Z. THERMAL CAP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ALONG
AND BEHIND IT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ND AT KISN/KMOT. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREAT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV









000
FXUS63 KBIS 242010
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA TO THE WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. AT
UPPER LEVELS...STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPEARS
TO BE FOCUSED MORE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT PLENTY OF CAPE
AND SHEAR IN PLACE SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MID-LEVEL CAP WAS BUILDING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
WERE MOVING EAST AT 30-35 MPH...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW - BUT NOT SURFACE-BASED.

THE MAIN ACTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT
BEST CAPE IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND THE BEST SHEAR IS
RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH.

EXPECTING BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AND BEST CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL FROM MID/LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND BREEZY WEST WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SAT...WILL
DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN MN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WITH THE LOW COUPLED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BOTH COMBINE WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH SAT
MORNING...WITH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...THEN
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY GIVING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REGION A DRY WEATHER SPELL. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE RIDGE RIDER S/WVS MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST...WILL
SEE SPOTTY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING MID-WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE END OF JULY SAT-
MON...IN THE 70S...THEN WARM INTO THE 80S TUE-THURS WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MVFR CIGS LINGERING FROM KDIK TO KBIS AND KEPT THOSE CIGS IN THE
TAFS UNTIL AROUND 20Z-21Z. OTHERWISE...MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL
BE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MODERATE GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH/FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 22Z-00Z...THEN MOVE EAST TO KMOT/KBIS AROUND 06Z...AND
TO KJMS AROUND 09Z-12Z. THERMAL CAP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ALONG
AND BEHIND IT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ND AT KISN/KMOT. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREAT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 241756
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1256 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN UPDATE TO LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. INSTABILITY IS HIGH...BUT THE GROWING
THERMAL CAP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH (CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
MONTANA/WYOMING) SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EVENING...CHANCES INCREASE
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND/OR MOVEMENT OF STORMS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST VERY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE MID TO LATE EVENING...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS CANCELLED BY 10 AM CDT. STORMS WERE
EAST OF THE WATCH AREA AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE TO
JAMES RIVER BASIN...AND WEST TO THE LOGAN/MCINTOSH COUNTY AREA.
EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND
NOON. NEXT UPDATE SHOULD FOCUS ON EXPECTED STORMS FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEGINNING IN THE WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 522 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPDATE FOR LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE WEST. WENT LIKELY POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM CDT
FOR WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE UPPER LOW SWINGING
THROUGH BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW/NIL POPS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE COOLER POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEC TINS
OF THE STATE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY AS AN H500 RIDGE BUILDS IN THE NORTHWEST
US RESULTING IN A DOWNSTREAM UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY THAT WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
US. THE EFFECT ON NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE STATE WITH 70S EAST AND 80S IN THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MVFR CIGS LINGERING FROM KDIK TO KBIS AND KEPT THOSE CIGS IN THE
TAFS UNTIL AROUND 20Z-21Z. OTHERWISE...MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL
BE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MODERATE GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH/FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 22Z-00Z...THEN MOVE EAST TO KMOT/KBIS AROUND 06Z...AND
TO KJMS AROUND 09Z-12Z. THERMAL CAP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ALONG
AND BEHIND IT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ND AT KISN/KMOT. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREAT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA/JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 241756
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1256 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN UPDATE TO LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. INSTABILITY IS HIGH...BUT THE GROWING
THERMAL CAP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH (CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
MONTANA/WYOMING) SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EVENING...CHANCES INCREASE
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND/OR MOVEMENT OF STORMS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST VERY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE MID TO LATE EVENING...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS CANCELLED BY 10 AM CDT. STORMS WERE
EAST OF THE WATCH AREA AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE TO
JAMES RIVER BASIN...AND WEST TO THE LOGAN/MCINTOSH COUNTY AREA.
EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND
NOON. NEXT UPDATE SHOULD FOCUS ON EXPECTED STORMS FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEGINNING IN THE WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 522 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPDATE FOR LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE WEST. WENT LIKELY POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM CDT
FOR WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE UPPER LOW SWINGING
THROUGH BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW/NIL POPS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE COOLER POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEC TINS
OF THE STATE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY AS AN H500 RIDGE BUILDS IN THE NORTHWEST
US RESULTING IN A DOWNSTREAM UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY THAT WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
US. THE EFFECT ON NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE STATE WITH 70S EAST AND 80S IN THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MVFR CIGS LINGERING FROM KDIK TO KBIS AND KEPT THOSE CIGS IN THE
TAFS UNTIL AROUND 20Z-21Z. OTHERWISE...MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL
BE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MODERATE GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH/FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 22Z-00Z...THEN MOVE EAST TO KMOT/KBIS AROUND 06Z...AND
TO KJMS AROUND 09Z-12Z. THERMAL CAP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ALONG
AND BEHIND IT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ND AT KISN/KMOT. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREAT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA/JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 241749
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1249 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

NECESSARY TO EXPAND POPS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO AS PCPN BAND HAS HELD TOGETHER. STRONGER ELEVATED CONVECTION
POISED TO EXIT OUR FAR SOUTHERN FA LEAVING MAINLY SHRA INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. ALSO MONITORING WIND SPEEDS ON BACK EDGE OF PCPN BAND.
GOOD DRYING OF ECHOES AND PRESSURE FALLS VIA MSAS INDICATING
POTENTIAL WAKE LOW DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY EXPECTING POSSIBLE 25 TO
40KTS WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW EXPECTED VALUES
ACROSS THE FAR WEST BUT SOLAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR QUICK RECOVERY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA BEGINNING TO OUTRUN FAVORED
INSTABILITY/CAPE. STRONGEST CELLS ON SOUTHERN FLANK PROPAGATING
SSE FEEDING INTO NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET. INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
FAR WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING BUT STILL ANTICIPATE
WEAKENING AS CELLS PUSH EAST. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THERE IS AN INTIMIDATING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MARCHING ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NO HELP AS TO HOW
THIS LINE WILL EVOLVE OVER TIME...AND WILL NEED TO USE EXPERIENCE.
INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...AND
TRANSITIONS TO A STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THUS...ANTICIPATE THAT THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND ALTHOUGH REMNANTS WILL MAKE IT INTO
THIS FA...IT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER. THE CURRENT 20-30 POPS FOR LATER
THIS MORNING SHOULD STILL GET THIS POINT ACROSS. THE MAIN IDEA
THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER SUNSET STILL
SEEMS THE MOST REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE FA...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. NOT MUCH CHANGE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
RIDE OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE FA LATER THIS MORNING. ANY
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING INTO A STABLE AIRMASS...WITH
DISSIPATING CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
COVER THIS PRECIP CHANCE WITH 20-30 POPS (FOLLOWING MAINLY THE
HRRR GUIDANCE)...AND WILL ADD MORE DETAIL WITH THE 7AM UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVENING WILL BE DRY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVERNIGHT (LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT)
AS CONVECTION FROM THE WEST (INITIATED BY A COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH)
MOVES INTO THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THESE PARAMETERS WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELL STORMS.
HOWEVER...A STRONG 850MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR OUR
SOUTHERN FA AT 06Z...THEN VEER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN BY
12Z. THUS...NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT
NOCTURNAL SEVERE STORMS. NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITY TYPE PRODUCTS
SHOW VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS PAST SUNSET. ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED.

GUIDANCE IS NOW QUICKER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT/SFC
TROUGH ON FRIDAY...MEANING THAT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEVERE
THREAT IS LIKELY SHIFTED EAST OF THE FA (INTO NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROPAGATE FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT COULD STILL
RESULT IN A BIT OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. COOL HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 7-10C RANGE.

OTHERWISE...THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...A RETURN TO AN
AMPLIFIED EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE IS
EXPECTED...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE PLAINS. A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS TO NEAR SEASONABLE AVERAGES
WILL OCCUR. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN/INSTABILITY...DEPENDENT UPON ANY IMPULSE THAT MAY DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ERODING PCPN ALLOWING FOR MIXING TO THE SFC ON BACKSIDE WITH GUSTY
WINDS 20 TO 40KT. IMPACT AT FARGO FOR THE EARLY AFTN. OTHERWISE VFR
W/ SE WINDS 10-15 GUSTS 20-25KTS THRU THE AFTN. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING ACROSS DVL AND GFK AND TVF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 241749
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1249 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

NECESSARY TO EXPAND POPS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO AS PCPN BAND HAS HELD TOGETHER. STRONGER ELEVATED CONVECTION
POISED TO EXIT OUR FAR SOUTHERN FA LEAVING MAINLY SHRA INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. ALSO MONITORING WIND SPEEDS ON BACK EDGE OF PCPN BAND.
GOOD DRYING OF ECHOES AND PRESSURE FALLS VIA MSAS INDICATING
POTENTIAL WAKE LOW DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY EXPECTING POSSIBLE 25 TO
40KTS WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW EXPECTED VALUES
ACROSS THE FAR WEST BUT SOLAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR QUICK RECOVERY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA BEGINNING TO OUTRUN FAVORED
INSTABILITY/CAPE. STRONGEST CELLS ON SOUTHERN FLANK PROPAGATING
SSE FEEDING INTO NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET. INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
FAR WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING BUT STILL ANTICIPATE
WEAKENING AS CELLS PUSH EAST. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THERE IS AN INTIMIDATING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MARCHING ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NO HELP AS TO HOW
THIS LINE WILL EVOLVE OVER TIME...AND WILL NEED TO USE EXPERIENCE.
INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...AND
TRANSITIONS TO A STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THUS...ANTICIPATE THAT THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND ALTHOUGH REMNANTS WILL MAKE IT INTO
THIS FA...IT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER. THE CURRENT 20-30 POPS FOR LATER
THIS MORNING SHOULD STILL GET THIS POINT ACROSS. THE MAIN IDEA
THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER SUNSET STILL
SEEMS THE MOST REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE FA...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. NOT MUCH CHANGE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
RIDE OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE FA LATER THIS MORNING. ANY
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING INTO A STABLE AIRMASS...WITH
DISSIPATING CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
COVER THIS PRECIP CHANCE WITH 20-30 POPS (FOLLOWING MAINLY THE
HRRR GUIDANCE)...AND WILL ADD MORE DETAIL WITH THE 7AM UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVENING WILL BE DRY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVERNIGHT (LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT)
AS CONVECTION FROM THE WEST (INITIATED BY A COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH)
MOVES INTO THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THESE PARAMETERS WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELL STORMS.
HOWEVER...A STRONG 850MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR OUR
SOUTHERN FA AT 06Z...THEN VEER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN BY
12Z. THUS...NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT
NOCTURNAL SEVERE STORMS. NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITY TYPE PRODUCTS
SHOW VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS PAST SUNSET. ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED.

GUIDANCE IS NOW QUICKER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT/SFC
TROUGH ON FRIDAY...MEANING THAT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEVERE
THREAT IS LIKELY SHIFTED EAST OF THE FA (INTO NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROPAGATE FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT COULD STILL
RESULT IN A BIT OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. COOL HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 7-10C RANGE.

OTHERWISE...THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...A RETURN TO AN
AMPLIFIED EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE IS
EXPECTED...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE PLAINS. A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS TO NEAR SEASONABLE AVERAGES
WILL OCCUR. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN/INSTABILITY...DEPENDENT UPON ANY IMPULSE THAT MAY DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ERODING PCPN ALLOWING FOR MIXING TO THE SFC ON BACKSIDE WITH GUSTY
WINDS 20 TO 40KT. IMPACT AT FARGO FOR THE EARLY AFTN. OTHERWISE VFR
W/ SE WINDS 10-15 GUSTS 20-25KTS THRU THE AFTN. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING ACROSS DVL AND GFK AND TVF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 241516
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1016 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS CANCELLED BY 10 AM CDT. STORMS WERE
EAST OF THE WATCH AREA AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE TO
JAMES RIVER BASIN...AND WEST TO THE LOGAN/MCINTOSH COUNTY AREA.
EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND
NOON. NEXT UPDATE SHOULD FOCUS ON EXPECTED STORMS FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEGINNING IN THE WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 522 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPDATE FOR LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE WEST. WENT LIKELY POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM CDT
FOR WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE UPPER LOW SWINGING
THROUGH BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW/NIL POPS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE COOLER POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEC TINS
OF THE STATE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY AS AN H500 RIDGE BUILDS IN THE NORTHWEST
US RESULTING IN A DOWNSTREAM UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY THAT WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
US. THE EFFECT ON NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE STATE WITH 70S EAST AND 80S IN THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS PERIOD.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PLACE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 5 AM AND 11 AM CDT. THIS
LIKELY TO IMPACT ALL TAF SITES AS THE LINE PROGRESSES EAST.
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREAT. THUNDERSTORM
THREAT DECREASES AFTER NOON CDT. OTHERWISE VFR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA/JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 241516
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1016 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS CANCELLED BY 10 AM CDT. STORMS WERE
EAST OF THE WATCH AREA AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE TO
JAMES RIVER BASIN...AND WEST TO THE LOGAN/MCINTOSH COUNTY AREA.
EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND
NOON. NEXT UPDATE SHOULD FOCUS ON EXPECTED STORMS FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEGINNING IN THE WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 522 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPDATE FOR LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE WEST. WENT LIKELY POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM CDT
FOR WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE UPPER LOW SWINGING
THROUGH BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW/NIL POPS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE COOLER POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEC TINS
OF THE STATE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY AS AN H500 RIDGE BUILDS IN THE NORTHWEST
US RESULTING IN A DOWNSTREAM UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY THAT WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
US. THE EFFECT ON NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE STATE WITH 70S EAST AND 80S IN THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS PERIOD.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PLACE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 5 AM AND 11 AM CDT. THIS
LIKELY TO IMPACT ALL TAF SITES AS THE LINE PROGRESSES EAST.
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREAT. THUNDERSTORM
THREAT DECREASES AFTER NOON CDT. OTHERWISE VFR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA/JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 241442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA BEGINNING TO OUTRUN FAVORED
INSTABILITY/CAPE. STRONGEST CELLS ON SOUTHERN FLANK PROPAGATING
SSE FEEDING INTO NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET. INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
FAR WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING BUT STILL ANTICIPATE
WEAKENING AS CELLS PUSH EAST. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THERE IS AN INTIMIDATING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MARCHING ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NO HELP AS TO HOW
THIS LINE WILL EVOLVE OVER TIME...AND WILL NEED TO USE EXPERIENCE.
INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...AND
TRANSITIONS TO A STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THUS...ANTICIPATE THAT THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND ALTHOUGH REMNANTS WILL MAKE IT INTO
THIS FA...IT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER. THE CURRENT 20-30 POPS FOR LATER
THIS MORNING SHOULD STILL GET THIS POINT ACROSS. THE MAIN IDEA
THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER SUNSET STILL
SEEMS THE MOST REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE FA...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. NOT MUCH CHANGE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
RIDE OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE FA LATER THIS MORNING. ANY
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING INTO A STABLE AIRMASS...WITH
DISSIPATING CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
COVER THIS PRECIP CHANCE WITH 20-30 POPS (FOLLOWING MAINLY THE
HRRR GUIDANCE)...AND WILL ADD MORE DETAIL WITH THE 7AM UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVENING WILL BE DRY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVERNIGHT (LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT)
AS CONVECTION FROM THE WEST (INITIATED BY A COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH)
MOVES INTO THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THESE PARAMETERS WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELL STORMS.
HOWEVER...A STRONG 850MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR OUR
SOUTHERN FA AT 06Z...THEN VEER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN BY
12Z. THUS...NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT
NOCTURNAL SEVERE STORMS. NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITY TYPE PRODUCTS
SHOW VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS PAST SUNSET. ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED.

GUIDANCE IS NOW QUICKER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT/SFC
TROUGH ON FRIDAY...MEANING THAT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEVERE
THREAT IS LIKELY SHIFTED EAST OF THE FA (INTO NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROPAGATE FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT COULD STILL
RESULT IN A BIT OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. COOL HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 7-10C RANGE.

OTHERWISE...THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...A RETURN TO AN
AMPLIFIED EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE IS
EXPECTED...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE PLAINS. A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS TO NEAR SEASONABLE AVERAGES
WILL OCCUR. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN/INSTABILITY...DEPENDENT UPON ANY IMPULSE THAT MAY DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND ANTICIPATE LITTLE TO
NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CHANCES INCREASE
TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND DID NOT MENTION
IN THE FORECAST. CIGS WILL BE VFR...WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOPING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 241442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA BEGINNING TO OUTRUN FAVORED
INSTABILITY/CAPE. STRONGEST CELLS ON SOUTHERN FLANK PROPAGATING
SSE FEEDING INTO NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET. INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
FAR WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING BUT STILL ANTICIPATE
WEAKENING AS CELLS PUSH EAST. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THERE IS AN INTIMIDATING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MARCHING ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NO HELP AS TO HOW
THIS LINE WILL EVOLVE OVER TIME...AND WILL NEED TO USE EXPERIENCE.
INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...AND
TRANSITIONS TO A STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THUS...ANTICIPATE THAT THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND ALTHOUGH REMNANTS WILL MAKE IT INTO
THIS FA...IT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER. THE CURRENT 20-30 POPS FOR LATER
THIS MORNING SHOULD STILL GET THIS POINT ACROSS. THE MAIN IDEA
THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER SUNSET STILL
SEEMS THE MOST REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE FA...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. NOT MUCH CHANGE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
RIDE OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE FA LATER THIS MORNING. ANY
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING INTO A STABLE AIRMASS...WITH
DISSIPATING CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
COVER THIS PRECIP CHANCE WITH 20-30 POPS (FOLLOWING MAINLY THE
HRRR GUIDANCE)...AND WILL ADD MORE DETAIL WITH THE 7AM UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVENING WILL BE DRY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVERNIGHT (LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT)
AS CONVECTION FROM THE WEST (INITIATED BY A COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH)
MOVES INTO THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THESE PARAMETERS WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELL STORMS.
HOWEVER...A STRONG 850MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR OUR
SOUTHERN FA AT 06Z...THEN VEER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN BY
12Z. THUS...NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT
NOCTURNAL SEVERE STORMS. NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITY TYPE PRODUCTS
SHOW VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS PAST SUNSET. ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED.

GUIDANCE IS NOW QUICKER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT/SFC
TROUGH ON FRIDAY...MEANING THAT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEVERE
THREAT IS LIKELY SHIFTED EAST OF THE FA (INTO NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROPAGATE FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT COULD STILL
RESULT IN A BIT OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. COOL HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 7-10C RANGE.

OTHERWISE...THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...A RETURN TO AN
AMPLIFIED EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE IS
EXPECTED...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE PLAINS. A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS TO NEAR SEASONABLE AVERAGES
WILL OCCUR. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN/INSTABILITY...DEPENDENT UPON ANY IMPULSE THAT MAY DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND ANTICIPATE LITTLE TO
NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CHANCES INCREASE
TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND DID NOT MENTION
IN THE FORECAST. CIGS WILL BE VFR...WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOPING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 241143
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
643 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THERE IS AN INTIMIDATING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MARCHING ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NO HELP AS TO HOW
THIS LINE WILL EVOLVE OVER TIME...AND WILL NEED TO USE EXPERIENCE.
INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...AND
TRANSITIONS TO A STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THUS...ANTICIPATE THAT THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND ALTHOUGH REMNANTS WILL MAKE IT INTO
THIS FA...IT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER. THE CURRENT 20-30 POPS FOR LATER
THIS MORNING SHOULD STILL GET THIS POINT ACROSS. THE MAIN IDEA
THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER SUNSET STILL
SEEMS THE MOST REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE FA...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. NOT MUCH CHANGE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
RIDE OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE FA LATER THIS MORNING. ANY
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING INTO A STABLE AIRMASS...WITH
DISSIPATING CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
COVER THIS PRECIP CHANCE WITH 20-30 POPS (FOLLOWING MAINLY THE
HRRR GUIDANCE)...AND WILL ADD MORE DETAIL WITH THE 7AM UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVENING WILL BE DRY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVERNIGHT (LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT)
AS CONVECTION FROM THE WEST (INITIATED BY A COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH)
MOVES INTO THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THESE PARAMETERS WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELL STORMS.
HOWEVER...A STRONG 850MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR OUR
SOUTHERN FA AT 06Z...THEN VEER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN BY
12Z. THUS...NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT
NOCTURNAL SEVERE STORMS. NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITY TYPE PRODUCTS
SHOW VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS PAST SUNSET. ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED.

GUIDANCE IS NOW QUICKER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT/SFC
TROUGH ON FRIDAY...MEANING THAT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEVERE
THREAT IS LIKELY SHIFTED EAST OF THE FA (INTO NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROPAGATE FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT COULD STILL
RESULT IN A BIT OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. COOL HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 7-10C RANGE.

OTHERWISE...THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...A RETURN TO AN
AMPLIFIED EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE IS
EXPECTED...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE PLAINS. A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS TO NEAR SEASONABLE AVERAGES
WILL OCCUR. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN/INSTABILITY...DEPENDENT UPON ANY IMPULSE THAT MAY DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND ANTICIPATE LITTLE TO
NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CHANCES INCREASE
TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND DID NOT MENTION
IN THE FORECAST. CIGS WILL BE VFR...WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOPING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 241143
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
643 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THERE IS AN INTIMIDATING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MARCHING ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NO HELP AS TO HOW
THIS LINE WILL EVOLVE OVER TIME...AND WILL NEED TO USE EXPERIENCE.
INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...AND
TRANSITIONS TO A STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THUS...ANTICIPATE THAT THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND ALTHOUGH REMNANTS WILL MAKE IT INTO
THIS FA...IT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER. THE CURRENT 20-30 POPS FOR LATER
THIS MORNING SHOULD STILL GET THIS POINT ACROSS. THE MAIN IDEA
THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER SUNSET STILL
SEEMS THE MOST REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE FA...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. NOT MUCH CHANGE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
RIDE OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE FA LATER THIS MORNING. ANY
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING INTO A STABLE AIRMASS...WITH
DISSIPATING CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
COVER THIS PRECIP CHANCE WITH 20-30 POPS (FOLLOWING MAINLY THE
HRRR GUIDANCE)...AND WILL ADD MORE DETAIL WITH THE 7AM UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVENING WILL BE DRY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVERNIGHT (LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT)
AS CONVECTION FROM THE WEST (INITIATED BY A COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH)
MOVES INTO THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THESE PARAMETERS WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELL STORMS.
HOWEVER...A STRONG 850MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR OUR
SOUTHERN FA AT 06Z...THEN VEER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN BY
12Z. THUS...NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT
NOCTURNAL SEVERE STORMS. NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITY TYPE PRODUCTS
SHOW VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS PAST SUNSET. ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED.

GUIDANCE IS NOW QUICKER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT/SFC
TROUGH ON FRIDAY...MEANING THAT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEVERE
THREAT IS LIKELY SHIFTED EAST OF THE FA (INTO NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROPAGATE FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT COULD STILL
RESULT IN A BIT OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. COOL HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 7-10C RANGE.

OTHERWISE...THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...A RETURN TO AN
AMPLIFIED EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE IS
EXPECTED...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE PLAINS. A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS TO NEAR SEASONABLE AVERAGES
WILL OCCUR. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN/INSTABILITY...DEPENDENT UPON ANY IMPULSE THAT MAY DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND ANTICIPATE LITTLE TO
NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CHANCES INCREASE
TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND DID NOT MENTION
IN THE FORECAST. CIGS WILL BE VFR...WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOPING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 241143
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
643 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THERE IS AN INTIMIDATING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MARCHING ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NO HELP AS TO HOW
THIS LINE WILL EVOLVE OVER TIME...AND WILL NEED TO USE EXPERIENCE.
INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...AND
TRANSITIONS TO A STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THUS...ANTICIPATE THAT THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND ALTHOUGH REMNANTS WILL MAKE IT INTO
THIS FA...IT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER. THE CURRENT 20-30 POPS FOR LATER
THIS MORNING SHOULD STILL GET THIS POINT ACROSS. THE MAIN IDEA
THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER SUNSET STILL
SEEMS THE MOST REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE FA...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. NOT MUCH CHANGE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
RIDE OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE FA LATER THIS MORNING. ANY
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING INTO A STABLE AIRMASS...WITH
DISSIPATING CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
COVER THIS PRECIP CHANCE WITH 20-30 POPS (FOLLOWING MAINLY THE
HRRR GUIDANCE)...AND WILL ADD MORE DETAIL WITH THE 7AM UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVENING WILL BE DRY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVERNIGHT (LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT)
AS CONVECTION FROM THE WEST (INITIATED BY A COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH)
MOVES INTO THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THESE PARAMETERS WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELL STORMS.
HOWEVER...A STRONG 850MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR OUR
SOUTHERN FA AT 06Z...THEN VEER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN BY
12Z. THUS...NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT
NOCTURNAL SEVERE STORMS. NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITY TYPE PRODUCTS
SHOW VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS PAST SUNSET. ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED.

GUIDANCE IS NOW QUICKER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT/SFC
TROUGH ON FRIDAY...MEANING THAT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEVERE
THREAT IS LIKELY SHIFTED EAST OF THE FA (INTO NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROPAGATE FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT COULD STILL
RESULT IN A BIT OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. COOL HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 7-10C RANGE.

OTHERWISE...THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...A RETURN TO AN
AMPLIFIED EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE IS
EXPECTED...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE PLAINS. A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS TO NEAR SEASONABLE AVERAGES
WILL OCCUR. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN/INSTABILITY...DEPENDENT UPON ANY IMPULSE THAT MAY DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND ANTICIPATE LITTLE TO
NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CHANCES INCREASE
TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND DID NOT MENTION
IN THE FORECAST. CIGS WILL BE VFR...WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOPING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 241143
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
643 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THERE IS AN INTIMIDATING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MARCHING ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NO HELP AS TO HOW
THIS LINE WILL EVOLVE OVER TIME...AND WILL NEED TO USE EXPERIENCE.
INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...AND
TRANSITIONS TO A STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THUS...ANTICIPATE THAT THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND ALTHOUGH REMNANTS WILL MAKE IT INTO
THIS FA...IT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER. THE CURRENT 20-30 POPS FOR LATER
THIS MORNING SHOULD STILL GET THIS POINT ACROSS. THE MAIN IDEA
THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER SUNSET STILL
SEEMS THE MOST REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE FA...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. NOT MUCH CHANGE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
RIDE OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE FA LATER THIS MORNING. ANY
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING INTO A STABLE AIRMASS...WITH
DISSIPATING CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
COVER THIS PRECIP CHANCE WITH 20-30 POPS (FOLLOWING MAINLY THE
HRRR GUIDANCE)...AND WILL ADD MORE DETAIL WITH THE 7AM UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVENING WILL BE DRY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVERNIGHT (LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT)
AS CONVECTION FROM THE WEST (INITIATED BY A COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH)
MOVES INTO THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THESE PARAMETERS WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELL STORMS.
HOWEVER...A STRONG 850MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR OUR
SOUTHERN FA AT 06Z...THEN VEER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN BY
12Z. THUS...NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT
NOCTURNAL SEVERE STORMS. NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITY TYPE PRODUCTS
SHOW VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS PAST SUNSET. ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED.

GUIDANCE IS NOW QUICKER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT/SFC
TROUGH ON FRIDAY...MEANING THAT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEVERE
THREAT IS LIKELY SHIFTED EAST OF THE FA (INTO NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROPAGATE FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT COULD STILL
RESULT IN A BIT OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. COOL HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 7-10C RANGE.

OTHERWISE...THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...A RETURN TO AN
AMPLIFIED EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE IS
EXPECTED...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE PLAINS. A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS TO NEAR SEASONABLE AVERAGES
WILL OCCUR. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN/INSTABILITY...DEPENDENT UPON ANY IMPULSE THAT MAY DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND ANTICIPATE LITTLE TO
NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CHANCES INCREASE
TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND DID NOT MENTION
IN THE FORECAST. CIGS WILL BE VFR...WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOPING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KBIS 241024
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
524 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 522 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPDATE FOR LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE WEST. WENT LIKLY POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM CDT
FOR WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE UPPER LOW SWINGING
THROUGH BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW/NIL POPS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE COOLER POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEC TINS
OF THE STATE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY AS AN H500 RIDGE BUILDS IN THE NORTHWEST
US RESULTING IN A DOWNSTREAM UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY THAT WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
US. THE EFFECT ON NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE STATE WITH 70S EAST AND 80S IN THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS PERIOD.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PLACE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 5 AM AND 11 AM CDT. THIS
LIKELY TO IMPACT ALL TAF SITES AS THE LINE PROGRESSES EAST.
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREAT. THUNDERSTORM
THREAT DECREASES AFTER NOON CDT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...WAA/JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 241024
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
524 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 522 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPDATE FOR LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE WEST. WENT LIKLY POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM CDT
FOR WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE UPPER LOW SWINGING
THROUGH BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW/NIL POPS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE COOLER POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEC TINS
OF THE STATE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY AS AN H500 RIDGE BUILDS IN THE NORTHWEST
US RESULTING IN A DOWNSTREAM UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY THAT WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
US. THE EFFECT ON NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE STATE WITH 70S EAST AND 80S IN THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS PERIOD.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PLACE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 5 AM AND 11 AM CDT. THIS
LIKELY TO IMPACT ALL TAF SITES AS THE LINE PROGRESSES EAST.
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREAT. THUNDERSTORM
THREAT DECREASES AFTER NOON CDT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...WAA/JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 240851
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
351 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM CDT
FOR WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE UPPER LOW SWINGING
THROUGH BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW/NIL POPS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE COOLER POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEC TINS
OF THE STATE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY AS AN H500 RIDGE BUILDS IN THE NORTHWEST
US RESULTING IN A DOWNSTREAM UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY THAT WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
US. THE EFFECT ON NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE STATE WITH 70S EAST AND 80S IN THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS PERIOD.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PLACE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 5 AM AND 11 AM CDT. THIS
LIKELY TO IMPACT ALL TAF SITES AS THE LINE PROGRESSES EAST.
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREAT. THUNDERSTORM
THREAT DECREASES AFTER NOON CDT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA/JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JPM







000
FXUS63 KBIS 240851
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
351 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM CDT
FOR WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE UPPER LOW SWINGING
THROUGH BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW/NIL POPS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE COOLER POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEC TINS
OF THE STATE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY AS AN H500 RIDGE BUILDS IN THE NORTHWEST
US RESULTING IN A DOWNSTREAM UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY THAT WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
US. THE EFFECT ON NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE STATE WITH 70S EAST AND 80S IN THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS PERIOD.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PLACE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 5 AM AND 11 AM CDT. THIS
LIKELY TO IMPACT ALL TAF SITES AS THE LINE PROGRESSES EAST.
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREAT. THUNDERSTORM
THREAT DECREASES AFTER NOON CDT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA/JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JPM







000
FXUS63 KBIS 240851
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
351 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM CDT
FOR WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE UPPER LOW SWINGING
THROUGH BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW/NIL POPS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE COOLER POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEC TINS
OF THE STATE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY AS AN H500 RIDGE BUILDS IN THE NORTHWEST
US RESULTING IN A DOWNSTREAM UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY THAT WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
US. THE EFFECT ON NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE STATE WITH 70S EAST AND 80S IN THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS PERIOD.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PLACE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 5 AM AND 11 AM CDT. THIS
LIKELY TO IMPACT ALL TAF SITES AS THE LINE PROGRESSES EAST.
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREAT. THUNDERSTORM
THREAT DECREASES AFTER NOON CDT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA/JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JPM







000
FXUS63 KBIS 240851
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
351 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM CDT
FOR WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE UPPER LOW SWINGING
THROUGH BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW/NIL POPS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE COOLER POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEC TINS
OF THE STATE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY AS AN H500 RIDGE BUILDS IN THE NORTHWEST
US RESULTING IN A DOWNSTREAM UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY THAT WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
US. THE EFFECT ON NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE STATE WITH 70S EAST AND 80S IN THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS PERIOD.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PLACE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 5 AM AND 11 AM CDT. THIS
LIKELY TO IMPACT ALL TAF SITES AS THE LINE PROGRESSES EAST.
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREAT. THUNDERSTORM
THREAT DECREASES AFTER NOON CDT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA/JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JPM







000
FXUS63 KFGF 240845
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE FA...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. NOT MUCH CHANGE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
RIDE OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE FA LATER THIS MORNING. ANY
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING INTO A STABLE AIRMASS...WITH
DISSIPATING CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
COVER THIS PRECIP CHANCE WITH 20-30 POPS (FOLLOWING MAINLY THE
HRRR GUIDANCE)...AND WILL ADD MORE DETAIL WITH THE 7AM UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVENING WILL BE DRY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVERNIGHT (LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT)
AS CONVECTION FROM THE WEST (INITIATED BY A COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH)
MOVES INTO THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THESE PARAMETERS WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELL STORMS.
HOWEVER...A STRONG 850MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR OUR
SOUTHERN FA AT 06Z...THEN VEER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN BY
12Z. THUS...NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT
NOCTURNAL SEVERE STORMS. NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITY TYPE PRODUCTS
SHOW VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS PAST SUNSET. ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED.

GUIDANCE IS NOW QUICKER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT/SFC
TROUGH ON FRIDAY...MEANING THAT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEVERE
THREAT IS LIKELY SHIFTED EAST OF THE FA (INTO NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROPAGATE FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT COULD STILL
RESULT IN A BIT OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. COOL HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 7-10C RANGE.

OTHERWISE...THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...A RETURN TO AN
AMPLIFIED EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE IS
EXPECTED...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE PLAINS. A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS TO NEAR SEASONABLE AVERAGES
WILL OCCUR. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN/INSTABILITY...DEPENDENT UPON ANY IMPULSE THAT MAY DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING ON
THU. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER BY TUE EVENING...BUT COVERAGE AT
THIS POINT SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH SO WON/T INCLUDE THUNDER...BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT 24 HR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 240845
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE FA...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. NOT MUCH CHANGE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
RIDE OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE FA LATER THIS MORNING. ANY
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING INTO A STABLE AIRMASS...WITH
DISSIPATING CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
COVER THIS PRECIP CHANCE WITH 20-30 POPS (FOLLOWING MAINLY THE
HRRR GUIDANCE)...AND WILL ADD MORE DETAIL WITH THE 7AM UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVENING WILL BE DRY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVERNIGHT (LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT)
AS CONVECTION FROM THE WEST (INITIATED BY A COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH)
MOVES INTO THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THESE PARAMETERS WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELL STORMS.
HOWEVER...A STRONG 850MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR OUR
SOUTHERN FA AT 06Z...THEN VEER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN BY
12Z. THUS...NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT
NOCTURNAL SEVERE STORMS. NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITY TYPE PRODUCTS
SHOW VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS PAST SUNSET. ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED.

GUIDANCE IS NOW QUICKER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT/SFC
TROUGH ON FRIDAY...MEANING THAT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEVERE
THREAT IS LIKELY SHIFTED EAST OF THE FA (INTO NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROPAGATE FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT COULD STILL
RESULT IN A BIT OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. COOL HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 7-10C RANGE.

OTHERWISE...THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...A RETURN TO AN
AMPLIFIED EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE IS
EXPECTED...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE PLAINS. A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS TO NEAR SEASONABLE AVERAGES
WILL OCCUR. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN/INSTABILITY...DEPENDENT UPON ANY IMPULSE THAT MAY DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING ON
THU. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER BY TUE EVENING...BUT COVERAGE AT
THIS POINT SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH SO WON/T INCLUDE THUNDER...BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT 24 HR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 240845
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE FA...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. NOT MUCH CHANGE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
RIDE OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE FA LATER THIS MORNING. ANY
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING INTO A STABLE AIRMASS...WITH
DISSIPATING CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
COVER THIS PRECIP CHANCE WITH 20-30 POPS (FOLLOWING MAINLY THE
HRRR GUIDANCE)...AND WILL ADD MORE DETAIL WITH THE 7AM UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVENING WILL BE DRY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVERNIGHT (LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT)
AS CONVECTION FROM THE WEST (INITIATED BY A COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH)
MOVES INTO THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THESE PARAMETERS WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELL STORMS.
HOWEVER...A STRONG 850MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR OUR
SOUTHERN FA AT 06Z...THEN VEER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN BY
12Z. THUS...NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT
NOCTURNAL SEVERE STORMS. NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITY TYPE PRODUCTS
SHOW VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS PAST SUNSET. ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED.

GUIDANCE IS NOW QUICKER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT/SFC
TROUGH ON FRIDAY...MEANING THAT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEVERE
THREAT IS LIKELY SHIFTED EAST OF THE FA (INTO NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROPAGATE FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT COULD STILL
RESULT IN A BIT OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. COOL HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 7-10C RANGE.

OTHERWISE...THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...A RETURN TO AN
AMPLIFIED EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE IS
EXPECTED...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE PLAINS. A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS TO NEAR SEASONABLE AVERAGES
WILL OCCUR. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN/INSTABILITY...DEPENDENT UPON ANY IMPULSE THAT MAY DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING ON
THU. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER BY TUE EVENING...BUT COVERAGE AT
THIS POINT SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH SO WON/T INCLUDE THUNDER...BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT 24 HR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 240845
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE FA...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. NOT MUCH CHANGE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
RIDE OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE FA LATER THIS MORNING. ANY
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING INTO A STABLE AIRMASS...WITH
DISSIPATING CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
COVER THIS PRECIP CHANCE WITH 20-30 POPS (FOLLOWING MAINLY THE
HRRR GUIDANCE)...AND WILL ADD MORE DETAIL WITH THE 7AM UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVENING WILL BE DRY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVERNIGHT (LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT)
AS CONVECTION FROM THE WEST (INITIATED BY A COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH)
MOVES INTO THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THESE PARAMETERS WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELL STORMS.
HOWEVER...A STRONG 850MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR OUR
SOUTHERN FA AT 06Z...THEN VEER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN BY
12Z. THUS...NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT
NOCTURNAL SEVERE STORMS. NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITY TYPE PRODUCTS
SHOW VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS PAST SUNSET. ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED.

GUIDANCE IS NOW QUICKER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT/SFC
TROUGH ON FRIDAY...MEANING THAT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEVERE
THREAT IS LIKELY SHIFTED EAST OF THE FA (INTO NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROPAGATE FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT COULD STILL
RESULT IN A BIT OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. COOL HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 7-10C RANGE.

OTHERWISE...THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...A RETURN TO AN
AMPLIFIED EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE IS
EXPECTED...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE PLAINS. A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS TO NEAR SEASONABLE AVERAGES
WILL OCCUR. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN/INSTABILITY...DEPENDENT UPON ANY IMPULSE THAT MAY DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING ON
THU. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER BY TUE EVENING...BUT COVERAGE AT
THIS POINT SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH SO WON/T INCLUDE THUNDER...BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT 24 HR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 240624
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
124 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO REFINE POPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WHILE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED LOW IN COVERAGE THROUGH 230 UTC
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST
SASKATCHEWAN...IT HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR.
SPC HAS JUST ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA. SEE SPC MCD 1452 FOR DETAILS REGARDING TRENDS
THROUGH 345 UTC AS STORMS PROPAGATE EAST. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
HAD A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO THIS
EVENING...WITH STORMS NOW EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER AROUND 07-09 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. STILL MONITORING
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MONTANA OVER
THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. THE 20 UTC HRRR WOULD SUGGEST
MONTANA SURFACE BASED CONVECTION APPROACHING THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
BY 03-04 UTC...CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BY 08-09 UTC SUSTAINED BY A 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 AS THE MONTANA CONVECTION PROPAGATES INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH WAS OVER MANITOBA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS KEEPING MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
SHARP RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
AND EASTERN MT/WY. BEST SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OVER THE
FRONT RANGE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSE FORECAST TO MOVE/DEVELOP INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA DURING THE EVENING. ONCE CONVECTION BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED...THE SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING...THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ONGOING CONVECTION DAYBREAK THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD. THEN...ATTENTION TURNS
TO THE WEST AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW EMERGES INTO THE FRONT RANGE
FROM THE ROCKIES WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE DAKOTAS.
AT THE SAME TIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW OVER THE FRONT
RANGE WILL HAVE MOVED/DEVELOPED EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
THESE INGREDIENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PLENTY OF SHEAR...CAPE
(ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE)...AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL...WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE WA/OR COAST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DOWNSTREAM
H500 RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL
POSITION ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW
POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE STATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY COOLER BUT STILL
REASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD
BE THE RULE. ANY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS
SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. WHILE THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
DRY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS COOL AIR ALOFT
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. AS THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTS EAST AND A RIDGE POPS UP IN MONTANA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...SHOULD BE DRY WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 06UTC
TAF CYCLE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MONTANA WERE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH 12UTC. SEE
TAFS FOR TIMING AND THREAT DETAILS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JPM




000
FXUS63 KBIS 240624
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
124 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO REFINE POPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WHILE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED LOW IN COVERAGE THROUGH 230 UTC
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST
SASKATCHEWAN...IT HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR.
SPC HAS JUST ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA. SEE SPC MCD 1452 FOR DETAILS REGARDING TRENDS
THROUGH 345 UTC AS STORMS PROPAGATE EAST. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
HAD A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO THIS
EVENING...WITH STORMS NOW EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER AROUND 07-09 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. STILL MONITORING
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MONTANA OVER
THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. THE 20 UTC HRRR WOULD SUGGEST
MONTANA SURFACE BASED CONVECTION APPROACHING THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
BY 03-04 UTC...CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BY 08-09 UTC SUSTAINED BY A 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 AS THE MONTANA CONVECTION PROPAGATES INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH WAS OVER MANITOBA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS KEEPING MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
SHARP RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
AND EASTERN MT/WY. BEST SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OVER THE
FRONT RANGE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSE FORECAST TO MOVE/DEVELOP INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA DURING THE EVENING. ONCE CONVECTION BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED...THE SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING...THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ONGOING CONVECTION DAYBREAK THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD. THEN...ATTENTION TURNS
TO THE WEST AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW EMERGES INTO THE FRONT RANGE
FROM THE ROCKIES WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE DAKOTAS.
AT THE SAME TIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW OVER THE FRONT
RANGE WILL HAVE MOVED/DEVELOPED EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
THESE INGREDIENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PLENTY OF SHEAR...CAPE
(ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE)...AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL...WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE WA/OR COAST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DOWNSTREAM
H500 RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL
POSITION ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW
POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE STATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY COOLER BUT STILL
REASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD
BE THE RULE. ANY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS
SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. WHILE THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
DRY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS COOL AIR ALOFT
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. AS THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTS EAST AND A RIDGE POPS UP IN MONTANA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...SHOULD BE DRY WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 06UTC
TAF CYCLE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MONTANA WERE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH 12UTC. SEE
TAFS FOR TIMING AND THREAT DETAILS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JPM





000
FXUS63 KFGF 240415
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1115 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 11115 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. THERE SHOULD BE A BAND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR WEST LATER TONIGHT...AND
WILL LEAVE THIS MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CUMULUS FIELD FORMED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN FA WHILE A STEADY STREAM OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE WESTERN FA. THINK THE CUMULUS
WILL FADE AWAY THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THERE WILL BE A STEADY
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN KEEPING AT LEAST THE WEST
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOOKS LIKE TSTMS SHOULD FIRE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF ND TONIGHT AND SLOWLY TREND EASTWARD TOWARD MORNING. WILL
INSERT SOME LOW TSTM CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT IN CASE ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY REACHES OUR FAR WEST. PRETTY DECENT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT
WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP THESE TSTMS GOING OUT
WEST THRU THE NIGHT. QUESTION THEN IS HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
THE WEST AFFECTS THE FA ON THU. AT THIS POINT SINCE THE LOW LEVEL
JET HOLDS TOGETHER SOMEWHAT AND THERE IS A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL
MAINTAIN TSTM CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS THEY WERE. DO NOT HAVE A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN THU NIGHT CHANCES. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE BEST ON
KEEPING SOMETHING LINGERING IN THE NORTHEAST BUT THERE IS ALSO A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO EASTERN ND. PRETTY HARD TO
ELIMINATE PCPN CHANCES FOR ANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ABOVE MENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST MN
ON FRIDAY. HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BRING MORE TSTMS TO THESE AREAS. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HAS A SEE TEXT FOR MOST OF OUR FA. THESE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OUT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN FA
ON SATURDAY. COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN ND/HIGHWAY 10 IN MN.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS IN FAMOUS AGREEMENT
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH CLOSED LOW NORTH OF
REGION PROPAGATING TO THE EAST DURING SUNDAY TAKING ANY PCPN OUT
OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SUNNY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LONG WAVE RANGE WILL
STAY IN PLACE FROM MONTANA THROUGH DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HINT OF A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW BY DAY 7...MAYBE TOO FAST BUT
MAINTAINED ALLBLEND LOW POPS AS THE PERIOD ENDS. EXPECT LITTLE DAY
TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING ON
THU. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER BY TUE EVENING...BUT COVERAGE AT
THIS POINT SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH SO WON/T INCLUDE THUNDER...BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT 24 HR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 240415
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1115 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 11115 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. THERE SHOULD BE A BAND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR WEST LATER TONIGHT...AND
WILL LEAVE THIS MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CUMULUS FIELD FORMED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN FA WHILE A STEADY STREAM OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE WESTERN FA. THINK THE CUMULUS
WILL FADE AWAY THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THERE WILL BE A STEADY
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN KEEPING AT LEAST THE WEST
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOOKS LIKE TSTMS SHOULD FIRE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF ND TONIGHT AND SLOWLY TREND EASTWARD TOWARD MORNING. WILL
INSERT SOME LOW TSTM CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT IN CASE ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY REACHES OUR FAR WEST. PRETTY DECENT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT
WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP THESE TSTMS GOING OUT
WEST THRU THE NIGHT. QUESTION THEN IS HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
THE WEST AFFECTS THE FA ON THU. AT THIS POINT SINCE THE LOW LEVEL
JET HOLDS TOGETHER SOMEWHAT AND THERE IS A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL
MAINTAIN TSTM CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS THEY WERE. DO NOT HAVE A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN THU NIGHT CHANCES. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE BEST ON
KEEPING SOMETHING LINGERING IN THE NORTHEAST BUT THERE IS ALSO A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO EASTERN ND. PRETTY HARD TO
ELIMINATE PCPN CHANCES FOR ANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ABOVE MENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST MN
ON FRIDAY. HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BRING MORE TSTMS TO THESE AREAS. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HAS A SEE TEXT FOR MOST OF OUR FA. THESE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OUT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN FA
ON SATURDAY. COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN ND/HIGHWAY 10 IN MN.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS IN FAMOUS AGREEMENT
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH CLOSED LOW NORTH OF
REGION PROPAGATING TO THE EAST DURING SUNDAY TAKING ANY PCPN OUT
OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SUNNY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LONG WAVE RANGE WILL
STAY IN PLACE FROM MONTANA THROUGH DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HINT OF A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW BY DAY 7...MAYBE TOO FAST BUT
MAINTAINED ALLBLEND LOW POPS AS THE PERIOD ENDS. EXPECT LITTLE DAY
TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING ON
THU. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER BY TUE EVENING...BUT COVERAGE AT
THIS POINT SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH SO WON/T INCLUDE THUNDER...BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT 24 HR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 240415
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1115 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 11115 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. THERE SHOULD BE A BAND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR WEST LATER TONIGHT...AND
WILL LEAVE THIS MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CUMULUS FIELD FORMED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN FA WHILE A STEADY STREAM OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE WESTERN FA. THINK THE CUMULUS
WILL FADE AWAY THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THERE WILL BE A STEADY
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN KEEPING AT LEAST THE WEST
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOOKS LIKE TSTMS SHOULD FIRE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF ND TONIGHT AND SLOWLY TREND EASTWARD TOWARD MORNING. WILL
INSERT SOME LOW TSTM CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT IN CASE ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY REACHES OUR FAR WEST. PRETTY DECENT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT
WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP THESE TSTMS GOING OUT
WEST THRU THE NIGHT. QUESTION THEN IS HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
THE WEST AFFECTS THE FA ON THU. AT THIS POINT SINCE THE LOW LEVEL
JET HOLDS TOGETHER SOMEWHAT AND THERE IS A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL
MAINTAIN TSTM CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS THEY WERE. DO NOT HAVE A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN THU NIGHT CHANCES. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE BEST ON
KEEPING SOMETHING LINGERING IN THE NORTHEAST BUT THERE IS ALSO A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO EASTERN ND. PRETTY HARD TO
ELIMINATE PCPN CHANCES FOR ANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ABOVE MENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST MN
ON FRIDAY. HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BRING MORE TSTMS TO THESE AREAS. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HAS A SEE TEXT FOR MOST OF OUR FA. THESE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OUT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN FA
ON SATURDAY. COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN ND/HIGHWAY 10 IN MN.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS IN FAMOUS AGREEMENT
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH CLOSED LOW NORTH OF
REGION PROPAGATING TO THE EAST DURING SUNDAY TAKING ANY PCPN OUT
OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SUNNY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LONG WAVE RANGE WILL
STAY IN PLACE FROM MONTANA THROUGH DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HINT OF A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW BY DAY 7...MAYBE TOO FAST BUT
MAINTAINED ALLBLEND LOW POPS AS THE PERIOD ENDS. EXPECT LITTLE DAY
TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING ON
THU. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER BY TUE EVENING...BUT COVERAGE AT
THIS POINT SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH SO WON/T INCLUDE THUNDER...BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT 24 HR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 240415
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1115 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 11115 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. THERE SHOULD BE A BAND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR WEST LATER TONIGHT...AND
WILL LEAVE THIS MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CUMULUS FIELD FORMED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN FA WHILE A STEADY STREAM OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE WESTERN FA. THINK THE CUMULUS
WILL FADE AWAY THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THERE WILL BE A STEADY
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN KEEPING AT LEAST THE WEST
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOOKS LIKE TSTMS SHOULD FIRE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF ND TONIGHT AND SLOWLY TREND EASTWARD TOWARD MORNING. WILL
INSERT SOME LOW TSTM CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT IN CASE ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY REACHES OUR FAR WEST. PRETTY DECENT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT
WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP THESE TSTMS GOING OUT
WEST THRU THE NIGHT. QUESTION THEN IS HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
THE WEST AFFECTS THE FA ON THU. AT THIS POINT SINCE THE LOW LEVEL
JET HOLDS TOGETHER SOMEWHAT AND THERE IS A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL
MAINTAIN TSTM CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS THEY WERE. DO NOT HAVE A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN THU NIGHT CHANCES. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE BEST ON
KEEPING SOMETHING LINGERING IN THE NORTHEAST BUT THERE IS ALSO A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO EASTERN ND. PRETTY HARD TO
ELIMINATE PCPN CHANCES FOR ANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ABOVE MENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST MN
ON FRIDAY. HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BRING MORE TSTMS TO THESE AREAS. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HAS A SEE TEXT FOR MOST OF OUR FA. THESE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OUT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN FA
ON SATURDAY. COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN ND/HIGHWAY 10 IN MN.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS IN FAMOUS AGREEMENT
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH CLOSED LOW NORTH OF
REGION PROPAGATING TO THE EAST DURING SUNDAY TAKING ANY PCPN OUT
OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SUNNY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LONG WAVE RANGE WILL
STAY IN PLACE FROM MONTANA THROUGH DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HINT OF A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW BY DAY 7...MAYBE TOO FAST BUT
MAINTAINED ALLBLEND LOW POPS AS THE PERIOD ENDS. EXPECT LITTLE DAY
TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING ON
THU. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER BY TUE EVENING...BUT COVERAGE AT
THIS POINT SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH SO WON/T INCLUDE THUNDER...BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT 24 HR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 240246
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
946 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CUMULUS FIELD FORMED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN FA WHILE A STEADY STREAM OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE WESTERN FA. THINK THE CUMULUS
WILL FADE AWAY THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THERE WILL BE A STEADY
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN KEEPING AT LEAST THE WEST
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOOKS LIKE TSTMS SHOULD FIRE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF ND TONIGHT AND SLOWLY TREND EASTWARD TOWARD MORNING. WILL
INSERT SOME LOW TSTM CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT IN CASE ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY REACHES OUR FAR WEST. PRETTY DECENT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT
WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP THESE TSTMS GOING OUT
WEST THRU THE NIGHT. QUESTION THEN IS HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
THE WEST AFFECTS THE FA ON THU. AT THIS POINT SINCE THE LOW LEVEL
JET HOLDS TOGETHER SOMEWHAT AND THERE IS A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL
MAINTAIN TSTM CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS THEY WERE. DO NOT HAVE A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN THU NIGHT CHANCES. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE BEST ON
KEEPING SOMETHING LINGERING IN THE NORTHEAST BUT THERE IS ALSO A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO EASTERN ND. PRETTY HARD TO
ELIMINATE PCPN CHANCES FOR ANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ABOVE MENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST MN
ON FRIDAY. HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BRING MORE TSTMS TO THESE AREAS. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HAS A SEE TEXT FOR MOST OF OUR FA. THESE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OUT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN FA
ON SATURDAY. COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN ND/HIGHWAY 10 IN MN.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS IN FAMOUS AGREEMENT
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH CLOSED LOW NORTH OF
REGION PROPAGATING TO THE EAST DURING SUNDAY TAKING ANY PCPN OUT
OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SUNNY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LONG WAVE RANGE WILL
STAY IN PLACE FROM MONTANA THROUGH DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HINT OF A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW BY DAY 7...MAYBE TOO FAST BUT
MAINTAINED ALLBLEND LOW POPS AS THE PERIOD ENDS. EXPECT LITTLE DAY
TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT TURNING SOUTHEAST THU
MORNING...AND INCREASING TO BETWEEN 10-15KT BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 240246
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
946 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CUMULUS FIELD FORMED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN FA WHILE A STEADY STREAM OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE WESTERN FA. THINK THE CUMULUS
WILL FADE AWAY THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THERE WILL BE A STEADY
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN KEEPING AT LEAST THE WEST
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOOKS LIKE TSTMS SHOULD FIRE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF ND TONIGHT AND SLOWLY TREND EASTWARD TOWARD MORNING. WILL
INSERT SOME LOW TSTM CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT IN CASE ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY REACHES OUR FAR WEST. PRETTY DECENT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT
WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP THESE TSTMS GOING OUT
WEST THRU THE NIGHT. QUESTION THEN IS HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
THE WEST AFFECTS THE FA ON THU. AT THIS POINT SINCE THE LOW LEVEL
JET HOLDS TOGETHER SOMEWHAT AND THERE IS A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL
MAINTAIN TSTM CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS THEY WERE. DO NOT HAVE A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN THU NIGHT CHANCES. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE BEST ON
KEEPING SOMETHING LINGERING IN THE NORTHEAST BUT THERE IS ALSO A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO EASTERN ND. PRETTY HARD TO
ELIMINATE PCPN CHANCES FOR ANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ABOVE MENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST MN
ON FRIDAY. HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BRING MORE TSTMS TO THESE AREAS. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HAS A SEE TEXT FOR MOST OF OUR FA. THESE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OUT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN FA
ON SATURDAY. COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN ND/HIGHWAY 10 IN MN.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS IN FAMOUS AGREEMENT
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH CLOSED LOW NORTH OF
REGION PROPAGATING TO THE EAST DURING SUNDAY TAKING ANY PCPN OUT
OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SUNNY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LONG WAVE RANGE WILL
STAY IN PLACE FROM MONTANA THROUGH DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HINT OF A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW BY DAY 7...MAYBE TOO FAST BUT
MAINTAINED ALLBLEND LOW POPS AS THE PERIOD ENDS. EXPECT LITTLE DAY
TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT TURNING SOUTHEAST THU
MORNING...AND INCREASING TO BETWEEN 10-15KT BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 240246
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
946 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CUMULUS FIELD FORMED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN FA WHILE A STEADY STREAM OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE WESTERN FA. THINK THE CUMULUS
WILL FADE AWAY THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THERE WILL BE A STEADY
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN KEEPING AT LEAST THE WEST
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOOKS LIKE TSTMS SHOULD FIRE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF ND TONIGHT AND SLOWLY TREND EASTWARD TOWARD MORNING. WILL
INSERT SOME LOW TSTM CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT IN CASE ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY REACHES OUR FAR WEST. PRETTY DECENT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT
WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP THESE TSTMS GOING OUT
WEST THRU THE NIGHT. QUESTION THEN IS HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
THE WEST AFFECTS THE FA ON THU. AT THIS POINT SINCE THE LOW LEVEL
JET HOLDS TOGETHER SOMEWHAT AND THERE IS A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL
MAINTAIN TSTM CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS THEY WERE. DO NOT HAVE A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN THU NIGHT CHANCES. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE BEST ON
KEEPING SOMETHING LINGERING IN THE NORTHEAST BUT THERE IS ALSO A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO EASTERN ND. PRETTY HARD TO
ELIMINATE PCPN CHANCES FOR ANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ABOVE MENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST MN
ON FRIDAY. HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BRING MORE TSTMS TO THESE AREAS. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HAS A SEE TEXT FOR MOST OF OUR FA. THESE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OUT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN FA
ON SATURDAY. COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN ND/HIGHWAY 10 IN MN.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS IN FAMOUS AGREEMENT
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH CLOSED LOW NORTH OF
REGION PROPAGATING TO THE EAST DURING SUNDAY TAKING ANY PCPN OUT
OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SUNNY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LONG WAVE RANGE WILL
STAY IN PLACE FROM MONTANA THROUGH DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HINT OF A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW BY DAY 7...MAYBE TOO FAST BUT
MAINTAINED ALLBLEND LOW POPS AS THE PERIOD ENDS. EXPECT LITTLE DAY
TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT TURNING SOUTHEAST THU
MORNING...AND INCREASING TO BETWEEN 10-15KT BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 240246
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
946 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CUMULUS FIELD FORMED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN FA WHILE A STEADY STREAM OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE WESTERN FA. THINK THE CUMULUS
WILL FADE AWAY THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THERE WILL BE A STEADY
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN KEEPING AT LEAST THE WEST
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOOKS LIKE TSTMS SHOULD FIRE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF ND TONIGHT AND SLOWLY TREND EASTWARD TOWARD MORNING. WILL
INSERT SOME LOW TSTM CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT IN CASE ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY REACHES OUR FAR WEST. PRETTY DECENT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT
WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP THESE TSTMS GOING OUT
WEST THRU THE NIGHT. QUESTION THEN IS HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
THE WEST AFFECTS THE FA ON THU. AT THIS POINT SINCE THE LOW LEVEL
JET HOLDS TOGETHER SOMEWHAT AND THERE IS A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL
MAINTAIN TSTM CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS THEY WERE. DO NOT HAVE A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN THU NIGHT CHANCES. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE BEST ON
KEEPING SOMETHING LINGERING IN THE NORTHEAST BUT THERE IS ALSO A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO EASTERN ND. PRETTY HARD TO
ELIMINATE PCPN CHANCES FOR ANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ABOVE MENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST MN
ON FRIDAY. HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BRING MORE TSTMS TO THESE AREAS. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HAS A SEE TEXT FOR MOST OF OUR FA. THESE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OUT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN FA
ON SATURDAY. COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN ND/HIGHWAY 10 IN MN.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS IN FAMOUS AGREEMENT
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH CLOSED LOW NORTH OF
REGION PROPAGATING TO THE EAST DURING SUNDAY TAKING ANY PCPN OUT
OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SUNNY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LONG WAVE RANGE WILL
STAY IN PLACE FROM MONTANA THROUGH DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HINT OF A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW BY DAY 7...MAYBE TOO FAST BUT
MAINTAINED ALLBLEND LOW POPS AS THE PERIOD ENDS. EXPECT LITTLE DAY
TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT TURNING SOUTHEAST THU
MORNING...AND INCREASING TO BETWEEN 10-15KT BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KBIS 240233
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
933 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WHILE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED LOW IN COVERAGE THROUGH 230 UTC
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST
SASKATCHEWAN...IT HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR.
SPC HAS JUST ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA. SEE SPC MCD 1452 FOR DETAILS REGARDING TRENDS
THROUGH 345 UTC AS STORMS PROPAGATE EAST. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
HAD A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO THIS
EVENING...WITH STORMS NOW EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER AROUND 07-09 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. STILL MONITORING
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MONTANA OVER
THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. THE 20 UTC HRRR WOULD SUGGEST
MONTANA SURFACE BASED CONVECTION APPROACHING THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
BY 03-04 UTC...CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BY 08-09 UTC SUSTAINED BY A 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 AS THE MONTANA CONVECTION PROPAGATES INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH WAS OVER MANITOBA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS KEEPING MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
SHARP RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
AND EASTERN MT/WY. BEST SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OVER THE
FRONT RANGE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSE FORECAST TO MOVE/DEVELOP INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA DURING THE EVENING. ONCE CONVECTION BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED...THE SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING...THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ONGOING CONVECTION DAYBREAK THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD. THEN...ATTENTION TURNS
TO THE WEST AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW EMERGES INTO THE FRONT RANGE
FROM THE ROCKIES WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE DAKOTAS.
AT THE SAME TIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW OVER THE FRONT
RANGE WILL HAVE MOVED/DEVELOPED EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
THESE INGREDIENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PLENTY OF SHEAR...CAPE
(ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE)...AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL...WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE WA/OR COAST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DOWNSTREAM
H500 RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL
POSITION ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW
POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE STATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY COOLER BUT STILL
REASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD
BE THE RULE. ANY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS
SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. WHILE THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
DRY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS COOL AIR ALOFT
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. AS THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTS EAST AND A RIDGE POPS UP IN MONTANA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...SHOULD BE DRY WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 00
UTC TAF CYCLE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND
03-04 UTC...AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 08-09 UTC. SEE
TAFS FOR TIMING AND THREAT DETAILS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 240233
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
933 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WHILE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED LOW IN COVERAGE THROUGH 230 UTC
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST
SASKATCHEWAN...IT HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR.
SPC HAS JUST ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA. SEE SPC MCD 1452 FOR DETAILS REGARDING TRENDS
THROUGH 345 UTC AS STORMS PROPAGATE EAST. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
HAD A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO THIS
EVENING...WITH STORMS NOW EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER AROUND 07-09 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. STILL MONITORING
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MONTANA OVER
THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. THE 20 UTC HRRR WOULD SUGGEST
MONTANA SURFACE BASED CONVECTION APPROACHING THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
BY 03-04 UTC...CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BY 08-09 UTC SUSTAINED BY A 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 AS THE MONTANA CONVECTION PROPAGATES INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH WAS OVER MANITOBA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS KEEPING MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
SHARP RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
AND EASTERN MT/WY. BEST SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OVER THE
FRONT RANGE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSE FORECAST TO MOVE/DEVELOP INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA DURING THE EVENING. ONCE CONVECTION BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED...THE SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING...THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ONGOING CONVECTION DAYBREAK THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD. THEN...ATTENTION TURNS
TO THE WEST AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW EMERGES INTO THE FRONT RANGE
FROM THE ROCKIES WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE DAKOTAS.
AT THE SAME TIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW OVER THE FRONT
RANGE WILL HAVE MOVED/DEVELOPED EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
THESE INGREDIENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PLENTY OF SHEAR...CAPE
(ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE)...AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL...WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE WA/OR COAST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DOWNSTREAM
H500 RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL
POSITION ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW
POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE STATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY COOLER BUT STILL
REASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD
BE THE RULE. ANY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS
SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. WHILE THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
DRY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS COOL AIR ALOFT
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. AS THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTS EAST AND A RIDGE POPS UP IN MONTANA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...SHOULD BE DRY WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 00
UTC TAF CYCLE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND
03-04 UTC...AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 08-09 UTC. SEE
TAFS FOR TIMING AND THREAT DETAILS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD






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