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000
FXUS63 KBIS 191005
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
405 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS  INDICATES LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA TO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. AT UPPER LEVELS A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDED OVER THE CANADIAN
AND NORTHERN US PLAINS. A RATHER SHARP WESTERN EDGE TO LOW CLOUDS
EXTENDED FROM NEAR WILLISTON ACROSS LAKE SAKAKAWEA TO EAST OF
BISMARCK. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALONG AND SOUTH/WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AT 3 AM CST. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES
CLOUDS HANGING IN ACROSS THE NORTH. A SHORTWAVE ALOFT ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND MAY BE THE DRIVING
FORCE FOR THE MID CLOUDS MOVING IN AND THE LOWER CLOUDS DISSIPATING.

DENSE FOG STILL EVIDENT AT WILLISTON...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES HAVE
IMPROVED IN THE LAST HOUR AT OTHER PLACES WITHIN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...SUCH AS TIOGA/STANLEY/CROSBY. BUT MINOT VISIBILITY IS ON
A DOWNWARD TREND. THUS WILL KEEP THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOING UNTIL
6 AM AND THEN RE-EVALUATE.

OTHERWISE WARM ADVECTION TODAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND
WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RIVER. TONIGHT
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM ISSUES...LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG...
CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A
MEAN TROUGH SURFACE AND ALOFT. WAVES COMING THROUGH SATURDAY AND
AGAIN SUNDAY ARE WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED. HOWEVER...WITH WARMER
AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT AHEAD OF EACH WAVE THERE IS A RISK OF
FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY MORNING / FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES CHANGING ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHWEST TO RAIN WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SIMILAR SCENARIO SETS UP FOR SUNDAY.

THE MID LEVEL LOW...CUTTING OFF OVER WISCONSIN...WILL BLOCK THE
FLOW PATTERN UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER
AIR TO SPILL IN FOR TUESDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO CHRISTMAS DAY...THE
LOW TO THE EAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...ALLOW A STEADY FLOW OF COLDER AIR INTO NORTH
DAKOTA...THAT WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
STILL THOUGH...TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR THE
END OF DECEMBER...AROUND 20 DAYTIME AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW AT NIGHT. PERIODS OF FLURRIES...MAYBE A FEW TENTHS INCH OF
SNOW AT MOST EVERY OTHER DAY OR SO...LOOKS TO OCCUR THROUGH THE
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR
STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE...WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT...IS IS PROVIDING
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS TROUGH WILL CLEAR
THE STRATUS AT KBIS AND POSSIBLY KISN AROUND 06 UTC. HOWEVER...WITH
THE CLEAR SKIES AREAS OF FOG WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
THESE SITES THROUGH EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. KMOT AND KJMS WILL REMAIN
IN MVFR-IFR STRATUS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. KJMS SHOULD CLEAR DURING
THE MORNING BUT THE MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER WHICH COULD KEEP KMOT IN THE MVFR-IFR STRATUS AT LEAST
THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. ONCE THE STRATUS CLEARS THE TAF SITES...AND
THE THREAT OF PATCHY MORNING FOG HAS ENDED...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...TWH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 191005
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
405 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS  INDICATES LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA TO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. AT UPPER LEVELS A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDED OVER THE CANADIAN
AND NORTHERN US PLAINS. A RATHER SHARP WESTERN EDGE TO LOW CLOUDS
EXTENDED FROM NEAR WILLISTON ACROSS LAKE SAKAKAWEA TO EAST OF
BISMARCK. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALONG AND SOUTH/WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AT 3 AM CST. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES
CLOUDS HANGING IN ACROSS THE NORTH. A SHORTWAVE ALOFT ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND MAY BE THE DRIVING
FORCE FOR THE MID CLOUDS MOVING IN AND THE LOWER CLOUDS DISSIPATING.

DENSE FOG STILL EVIDENT AT WILLISTON...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES HAVE
IMPROVED IN THE LAST HOUR AT OTHER PLACES WITHIN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...SUCH AS TIOGA/STANLEY/CROSBY. BUT MINOT VISIBILITY IS ON
A DOWNWARD TREND. THUS WILL KEEP THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOING UNTIL
6 AM AND THEN RE-EVALUATE.

OTHERWISE WARM ADVECTION TODAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND
WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RIVER. TONIGHT
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM ISSUES...LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG...
CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A
MEAN TROUGH SURFACE AND ALOFT. WAVES COMING THROUGH SATURDAY AND
AGAIN SUNDAY ARE WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED. HOWEVER...WITH WARMER
AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT AHEAD OF EACH WAVE THERE IS A RISK OF
FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY MORNING / FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES CHANGING ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHWEST TO RAIN WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SIMILAR SCENARIO SETS UP FOR SUNDAY.

THE MID LEVEL LOW...CUTTING OFF OVER WISCONSIN...WILL BLOCK THE
FLOW PATTERN UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER
AIR TO SPILL IN FOR TUESDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO CHRISTMAS DAY...THE
LOW TO THE EAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...ALLOW A STEADY FLOW OF COLDER AIR INTO NORTH
DAKOTA...THAT WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
STILL THOUGH...TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR THE
END OF DECEMBER...AROUND 20 DAYTIME AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW AT NIGHT. PERIODS OF FLURRIES...MAYBE A FEW TENTHS INCH OF
SNOW AT MOST EVERY OTHER DAY OR SO...LOOKS TO OCCUR THROUGH THE
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR
STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE...WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT...IS IS PROVIDING
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS TROUGH WILL CLEAR
THE STRATUS AT KBIS AND POSSIBLY KISN AROUND 06 UTC. HOWEVER...WITH
THE CLEAR SKIES AREAS OF FOG WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
THESE SITES THROUGH EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. KMOT AND KJMS WILL REMAIN
IN MVFR-IFR STRATUS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. KJMS SHOULD CLEAR DURING
THE MORNING BUT THE MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER WHICH COULD KEEP KMOT IN THE MVFR-IFR STRATUS AT LEAST
THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. ONCE THE STRATUS CLEARS THE TAF SITES...AND
THE THREAT OF PATCHY MORNING FOG HAS ENDED...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...TWH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 191005
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
405 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS  INDICATES LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA TO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. AT UPPER LEVELS A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDED OVER THE CANADIAN
AND NORTHERN US PLAINS. A RATHER SHARP WESTERN EDGE TO LOW CLOUDS
EXTENDED FROM NEAR WILLISTON ACROSS LAKE SAKAKAWEA TO EAST OF
BISMARCK. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALONG AND SOUTH/WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AT 3 AM CST. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES
CLOUDS HANGING IN ACROSS THE NORTH. A SHORTWAVE ALOFT ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND MAY BE THE DRIVING
FORCE FOR THE MID CLOUDS MOVING IN AND THE LOWER CLOUDS DISSIPATING.

DENSE FOG STILL EVIDENT AT WILLISTON...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES HAVE
IMPROVED IN THE LAST HOUR AT OTHER PLACES WITHIN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...SUCH AS TIOGA/STANLEY/CROSBY. BUT MINOT VISIBILITY IS ON
A DOWNWARD TREND. THUS WILL KEEP THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOING UNTIL
6 AM AND THEN RE-EVALUATE.

OTHERWISE WARM ADVECTION TODAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND
WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RIVER. TONIGHT
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM ISSUES...LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG...
CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A
MEAN TROUGH SURFACE AND ALOFT. WAVES COMING THROUGH SATURDAY AND
AGAIN SUNDAY ARE WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED. HOWEVER...WITH WARMER
AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT AHEAD OF EACH WAVE THERE IS A RISK OF
FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY MORNING / FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES CHANGING ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHWEST TO RAIN WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SIMILAR SCENARIO SETS UP FOR SUNDAY.

THE MID LEVEL LOW...CUTTING OFF OVER WISCONSIN...WILL BLOCK THE
FLOW PATTERN UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER
AIR TO SPILL IN FOR TUESDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO CHRISTMAS DAY...THE
LOW TO THE EAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...ALLOW A STEADY FLOW OF COLDER AIR INTO NORTH
DAKOTA...THAT WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
STILL THOUGH...TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR THE
END OF DECEMBER...AROUND 20 DAYTIME AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW AT NIGHT. PERIODS OF FLURRIES...MAYBE A FEW TENTHS INCH OF
SNOW AT MOST EVERY OTHER DAY OR SO...LOOKS TO OCCUR THROUGH THE
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR
STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE...WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT...IS IS PROVIDING
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS TROUGH WILL CLEAR
THE STRATUS AT KBIS AND POSSIBLY KISN AROUND 06 UTC. HOWEVER...WITH
THE CLEAR SKIES AREAS OF FOG WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
THESE SITES THROUGH EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. KMOT AND KJMS WILL REMAIN
IN MVFR-IFR STRATUS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. KJMS SHOULD CLEAR DURING
THE MORNING BUT THE MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER WHICH COULD KEEP KMOT IN THE MVFR-IFR STRATUS AT LEAST
THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. ONCE THE STRATUS CLEARS THE TAF SITES...AND
THE THREAT OF PATCHY MORNING FOG HAS ENDED...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 191005
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
405 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS  INDICATES LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA TO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. AT UPPER LEVELS A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDED OVER THE CANADIAN
AND NORTHERN US PLAINS. A RATHER SHARP WESTERN EDGE TO LOW CLOUDS
EXTENDED FROM NEAR WILLISTON ACROSS LAKE SAKAKAWEA TO EAST OF
BISMARCK. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALONG AND SOUTH/WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AT 3 AM CST. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES
CLOUDS HANGING IN ACROSS THE NORTH. A SHORTWAVE ALOFT ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND MAY BE THE DRIVING
FORCE FOR THE MID CLOUDS MOVING IN AND THE LOWER CLOUDS DISSIPATING.

DENSE FOG STILL EVIDENT AT WILLISTON...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES HAVE
IMPROVED IN THE LAST HOUR AT OTHER PLACES WITHIN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...SUCH AS TIOGA/STANLEY/CROSBY. BUT MINOT VISIBILITY IS ON
A DOWNWARD TREND. THUS WILL KEEP THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOING UNTIL
6 AM AND THEN RE-EVALUATE.

OTHERWISE WARM ADVECTION TODAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND
WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RIVER. TONIGHT
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM ISSUES...LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG...
CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A
MEAN TROUGH SURFACE AND ALOFT. WAVES COMING THROUGH SATURDAY AND
AGAIN SUNDAY ARE WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED. HOWEVER...WITH WARMER
AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT AHEAD OF EACH WAVE THERE IS A RISK OF
FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY MORNING / FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES CHANGING ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHWEST TO RAIN WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SIMILAR SCENARIO SETS UP FOR SUNDAY.

THE MID LEVEL LOW...CUTTING OFF OVER WISCONSIN...WILL BLOCK THE
FLOW PATTERN UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER
AIR TO SPILL IN FOR TUESDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO CHRISTMAS DAY...THE
LOW TO THE EAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...ALLOW A STEADY FLOW OF COLDER AIR INTO NORTH
DAKOTA...THAT WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
STILL THOUGH...TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR THE
END OF DECEMBER...AROUND 20 DAYTIME AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW AT NIGHT. PERIODS OF FLURRIES...MAYBE A FEW TENTHS INCH OF
SNOW AT MOST EVERY OTHER DAY OR SO...LOOKS TO OCCUR THROUGH THE
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR
STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE...WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT...IS IS PROVIDING
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS TROUGH WILL CLEAR
THE STRATUS AT KBIS AND POSSIBLY KISN AROUND 06 UTC. HOWEVER...WITH
THE CLEAR SKIES AREAS OF FOG WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
THESE SITES THROUGH EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. KMOT AND KJMS WILL REMAIN
IN MVFR-IFR STRATUS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. KJMS SHOULD CLEAR DURING
THE MORNING BUT THE MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER WHICH COULD KEEP KMOT IN THE MVFR-IFR STRATUS AT LEAST
THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. ONCE THE STRATUS CLEARS THE TAF SITES...AND
THE THREAT OF PATCHY MORNING FOG HAS ENDED...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...TWH






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000
FXUS63 KFGF 190916
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
316 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND WITH NO REAL MODEL PREFERENCE.

UPPER LOW OVER S MB WILL DRIFT EAST NEXT 24 HOURS. LEAD
IMPULSE/SHEAR AXIS OVER NW MN WILL LIFT NE THIS MORNING WITH SECONDARY
WAVE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS MOVING IN LATER TODAY. RADAR RETURNS
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE LINING UP NICELY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
FROM K285 SURFACE. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DO LOWER THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WITH CURRENT VSBY UNDER SNOW BAND BRIEFLY DROPPING
BLO 7 MILES FEEL THERE COULD BE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW FALL SO
INCREASED POPS TO COVER BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS
BAND NOT MUCH HAPPENING AS FAR AS PCPN. AS LOWER CIGS PUSH EAST
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES SO MAINTAINED MENTION. NO REPORTS SO
FAR OF FZDZ HOWEVER THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY SO WILL
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE OFF SET BY CLOUD
COVER HOWEVER WITH WARMER START TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER ABOVE AVERAGE.

KEPT LOW END POPS OVER THE NE TONIGHT AS WEAK LIFT AND LOWER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
MILD WITH COOLEST READINGS OVER THE NW FA WHERE SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE ON CLOUDS HOWEVER WITH RELATIVELY
WARM COLUMN TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT FA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY WEAKENING SURFACE REFLECTION SO CONTINUED WITH LOW
END POPS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON FREEZING PCPN POTENTIAL HOWEVER WITH
SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS LATE THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF FZDZ
SO KEPT IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TO STAY MILD.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE SEVERAL UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY A BROADER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL US EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF EVENTUALLY
INDICATE STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONSOLIDATES. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE
HAPPENS...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE POSITION OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE REGION MON/TUE...BUT LOCATION WILL HINGE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND APPROACHING PACIFIC
ENERGY FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
TEMPS OVERALL WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH EARLY WEEK...WITH AT
LEAST SOME DEGREE OF COOLING BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
LIKELY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL
BE THE CHANCES FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...WITH BEST CHANCES AT KDVL.
WILL MONITOR EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THESE LIFR CONDITIONS AND UPDATE
AS NEEDED. SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 190916
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
316 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND WITH NO REAL MODEL PREFERENCE.

UPPER LOW OVER S MB WILL DRIFT EAST NEXT 24 HOURS. LEAD
IMPULSE/SHEAR AXIS OVER NW MN WILL LIFT NE THIS MORNING WITH SECONDARY
WAVE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS MOVING IN LATER TODAY. RADAR RETURNS
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE LINING UP NICELY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
FROM K285 SURFACE. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DO LOWER THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WITH CURRENT VSBY UNDER SNOW BAND BRIEFLY DROPPING
BLO 7 MILES FEEL THERE COULD BE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW FALL SO
INCREASED POPS TO COVER BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS
BAND NOT MUCH HAPPENING AS FAR AS PCPN. AS LOWER CIGS PUSH EAST
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES SO MAINTAINED MENTION. NO REPORTS SO
FAR OF FZDZ HOWEVER THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY SO WILL
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE OFF SET BY CLOUD
COVER HOWEVER WITH WARMER START TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER ABOVE AVERAGE.

KEPT LOW END POPS OVER THE NE TONIGHT AS WEAK LIFT AND LOWER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
MILD WITH COOLEST READINGS OVER THE NW FA WHERE SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE ON CLOUDS HOWEVER WITH RELATIVELY
WARM COLUMN TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT FA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY WEAKENING SURFACE REFLECTION SO CONTINUED WITH LOW
END POPS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON FREEZING PCPN POTENTIAL HOWEVER WITH
SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS LATE THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF FZDZ
SO KEPT IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TO STAY MILD.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE SEVERAL UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY A BROADER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL US EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF EVENTUALLY
INDICATE STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONSOLIDATES. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE
HAPPENS...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE POSITION OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE REGION MON/TUE...BUT LOCATION WILL HINGE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND APPROACHING PACIFIC
ENERGY FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
TEMPS OVERALL WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH EARLY WEEK...WITH AT
LEAST SOME DEGREE OF COOLING BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
LIKELY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL
BE THE CHANCES FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...WITH BEST CHANCES AT KDVL.
WILL MONITOR EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THESE LIFR CONDITIONS AND UPDATE
AS NEEDED. SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KBIS 190645
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1245 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

DENSE FOG HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEASTERN MONTANA AND HAD SPREAD
INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HRRR SHORT TERM MODEL SUGGESTS LOW
VISIBILITIES ALSO FARTHER EAST TOWARDS THE MINOT AREA. THEREFORE
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS
COUNTIES...BURKE AND MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES...AND RENVILLE AND WARD
COUNTIES UNTIL 6 AM CST. WATFORD CITY HAD REPORTED 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITY...BUT LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOWED A TREND OF MID
CLOUDS MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF MONTANA - WHICH WOULD HELP BREAK UP
FOG SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THUS KEPT THOSE COUNTIES SOUTH OF
THE MISSOURI OUT OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. OTHERWISE CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ONLY SOME MINOR UPDATES LATE THIS EVENING. ADDED A MENTION OF FOG
MOST EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOG IS BECOMING MORE
PREVALENT OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA. STILL THINK AREAS JUST WEST OF
THE CLEARING WILL FOG IN A LITTLE ALSO. UPDATED TEMPERATURES BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN DICKEY/LAMOURE
COUNTIES DIRECTLY. OTHERWISE STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW REPORTS OF VERY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING...AND DONT THINK FZDZ CAN BE RULED
OUT ANYWHERE WE HAVE THE STRATUS. THUS HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE...ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES WHEREVER
WE HAVE THE LOW STRATUS. THIS IS MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING...WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST. DICKINSON CLEARED OUT AND DROPPED DOWN
TO A QUARTER MILE BRIEFLY...BEFORE SETTLING AROUND 3SM. ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HERE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY. TEMPERATURES
WERE LOWERED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ONLY A COUPLE MINOR CHANGES TO THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. LOWERED
CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW STRATUS HAS CLEARED. ALSO
REMOVED MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR THIS AREA. ADJUSTED MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE A LITTLE NORTH INTO STUTSMAN COUNTY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA THROUGH 9 PM CENTRAL BASED ON CURRENT RADAR RETURNS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM NEAR THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LINE TOWARDS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES UPPER LOW PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLIDING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

FOR TONIGHT...BROAD LAYER OF LOW CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY ERODE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER REMAINING
AREAS. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHILE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

ON FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING
AS WEAK RIDGE MAKES ITS APPROACH. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA BRINGING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED A 332 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY AND THEN
THE LARGE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. THE 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE...HOWEVER PAST MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE...ONLY SLIGHT...OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY MELT THE
SNOW...HOWEVER BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL MOST
LIKELY REFREEZE THE PRECIPITATION INTO SLEET. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL COOL TO BELOW FREEZING AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING...CAUSING ANY
FALLING PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF FREEZING
RAIN...SNOW...AND RAIN. WITH ALL THAT SAID ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY KIND
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY...DEEPENS
AND PROPAGATES EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS MAY
CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. ONCE AGAIN
ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
TO SEE IF ANY MORE PRECIPITATION IS PUSHED INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES TOWARD THE EAST COAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL PROGRESSIVELY GET COLDER
WITH A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR
STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE...WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT...IS IS PROVIDING
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS TROUGH WILL CLEAR
THE STRATUS AT KBIS AND POSSIBLY KISN AROUND 06 UTC. HOWEVER...WITH
THE CLEAR SKIES AREAS OF FOG WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
THESE SITES THROUGH EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. KMOT AND KJMS WILL REMAIN
IN MVFR-IFR STRATUS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. KJMS SHOULD CLEAR DURING
THE MORNING BUT THE MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER WHICH COULD KEEP KMOT IN THE MVFR-IFR STRATUS AT LEAST
THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. ONCE THE STRATUS CLEARS THE TAF SITES...AND
THE THREAT OF PATCHY MORNING FOG HAS ENDED...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TWH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 190645
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1245 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

DENSE FOG HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEASTERN MONTANA AND HAD SPREAD
INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HRRR SHORT TERM MODEL SUGGESTS LOW
VISIBILITIES ALSO FARTHER EAST TOWARDS THE MINOT AREA. THEREFORE
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS
COUNTIES...BURKE AND MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES...AND RENVILLE AND WARD
COUNTIES UNTIL 6 AM CST. WATFORD CITY HAD REPORTED 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITY...BUT LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOWED A TREND OF MID
CLOUDS MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF MONTANA - WHICH WOULD HELP BREAK UP
FOG SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THUS KEPT THOSE COUNTIES SOUTH OF
THE MISSOURI OUT OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. OTHERWISE CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ONLY SOME MINOR UPDATES LATE THIS EVENING. ADDED A MENTION OF FOG
MOST EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOG IS BECOMING MORE
PREVALENT OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA. STILL THINK AREAS JUST WEST OF
THE CLEARING WILL FOG IN A LITTLE ALSO. UPDATED TEMPERATURES BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN DICKEY/LAMOURE
COUNTIES DIRECTLY. OTHERWISE STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW REPORTS OF VERY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING...AND DONT THINK FZDZ CAN BE RULED
OUT ANYWHERE WE HAVE THE STRATUS. THUS HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE...ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES WHEREVER
WE HAVE THE LOW STRATUS. THIS IS MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING...WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST. DICKINSON CLEARED OUT AND DROPPED DOWN
TO A QUARTER MILE BRIEFLY...BEFORE SETTLING AROUND 3SM. ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HERE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY. TEMPERATURES
WERE LOWERED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ONLY A COUPLE MINOR CHANGES TO THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. LOWERED
CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW STRATUS HAS CLEARED. ALSO
REMOVED MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR THIS AREA. ADJUSTED MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE A LITTLE NORTH INTO STUTSMAN COUNTY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA THROUGH 9 PM CENTRAL BASED ON CURRENT RADAR RETURNS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM NEAR THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LINE TOWARDS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES UPPER LOW PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLIDING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

FOR TONIGHT...BROAD LAYER OF LOW CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY ERODE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER REMAINING
AREAS. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHILE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

ON FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING
AS WEAK RIDGE MAKES ITS APPROACH. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA BRINGING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED A 332 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY AND THEN
THE LARGE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. THE 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE...HOWEVER PAST MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE...ONLY SLIGHT...OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY MELT THE
SNOW...HOWEVER BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL MOST
LIKELY REFREEZE THE PRECIPITATION INTO SLEET. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL COOL TO BELOW FREEZING AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING...CAUSING ANY
FALLING PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF FREEZING
RAIN...SNOW...AND RAIN. WITH ALL THAT SAID ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY KIND
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY...DEEPENS
AND PROPAGATES EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS MAY
CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. ONCE AGAIN
ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
TO SEE IF ANY MORE PRECIPITATION IS PUSHED INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES TOWARD THE EAST COAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL PROGRESSIVELY GET COLDER
WITH A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR
STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE...WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT...IS IS PROVIDING
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS TROUGH WILL CLEAR
THE STRATUS AT KBIS AND POSSIBLY KISN AROUND 06 UTC. HOWEVER...WITH
THE CLEAR SKIES AREAS OF FOG WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
THESE SITES THROUGH EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. KMOT AND KJMS WILL REMAIN
IN MVFR-IFR STRATUS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. KJMS SHOULD CLEAR DURING
THE MORNING BUT THE MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER WHICH COULD KEEP KMOT IN THE MVFR-IFR STRATUS AT LEAST
THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. ONCE THE STRATUS CLEARS THE TAF SITES...AND
THE THREAT OF PATCHY MORNING FOG HAS ENDED...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KFGF 190527
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1127 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

RECEIVED A REPORT OF FZDZ AROUND THE STARKWEATHER AREA (JUST NORTH
OF DEVILS LAKE). IT WAS LIGHT...AND VERY PATCHY (NO FZDZ IN DEVILS
LAKE)...BUT DID CAUSE THE SPOTTER TO SLOW DOWN A BIT. THERE ARE
LIKELY PATCHY AREAS OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PATCHY
AREAS OF SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS (AND THUS FZDZ). FZDZ HAS JUST
BEEN REPORTED IN BISMARCK AS WELL...AND WITH MANY AREAS BEGINNING
TO INDICATE LOWER VSBY...WILL MENTION SCATTERED FLURRIES/PATCHY
FZDZ MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. AGAIN...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A
HAZARD CONSIDERING THE PATCHY COVERAGE AND BRIEF DURATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...DO NOT FORESEE THE
TEMPERATURE DROPPING. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO BE STEADY...AND
RAISED THE MIN TEMP ACCORDINGLY.

THE BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ENTERING SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA STARTS
AS A FINE MIST...BUT QUICKLY BECOMES FLURRIES (WITH LARGER
FLAKES!)...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO EYE WITNESS REPORTS. NOTHING HAS
ACCUMULATED TO THE WEST THAT WOULD LEAD TO A HIGH POP/LOW QPF
SCENARIO...AND WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST OF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED FLURRIES RIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUDS AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AND BE INTO NW MN FRIDAY. AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA ATTM. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT PRESENT. BUT GOT A LAYER OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TONIGHT AS TROUGH
MOVES INTO ERN ND. RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS RIGHT NEAR THE
MINOT AND BISMARCK RADAR SITES AND WAS A FEW REPORTS THIS AFTN OF
LIGHT MIST IN NORTH CENTRAL SD AND EARLIER TODAY NEAR BISMARCK.
THINK AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR A FEW FLURRIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT SO INCLUDED. UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO NW MN FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
FLURRY MENTION AND CONTINUE A FLURRY/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMBO IN
PARTS OF WCNTRL MN AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE OF THAT
MAINLY FERGUS FALLS-WADENA AREAS. OVERALL THOUGH EXPECT A CLOUDY
SKY.

FRI SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ERN FCST AREA. ALL IN ALL ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPS WENT A TAD WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS DUE TO
CLOUDS. AFTN TEMPS TO WARM UP SLOWLY INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BUT CLOUDS LIKELY TOUGH TO
GET RID OF. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE
TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA GIVING ONCE AGAIN SOME LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA. ONCE AGAIN
SOUNDINGS WOULD SHOW SOME THREAT FOR A FZDZ/-SN MIX WITH THIS
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT SO INCLUDED TO MATCH UP WITH WFO DLH. TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND TO BE MILD RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY RESPECTIVELY WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE SO TROUGH
DIGGING DAY5 AND THEREAFTER. THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DIG TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS MON THROUGH WED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE
TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER
THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ON MON BY A DEGREE OR SO. TEMPS WERE
LOWERED ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON TUE AND HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ONE
TO FOUR DEGREES ON WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
LIKELY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL
BE THE CHANCES FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...WITH BEST CHANCES AT KDVL.
WILL MONITOR EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THESE LIFR CONDITIONS AND UPDATE
AS NEEDED. SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 190527
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1127 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

RECEIVED A REPORT OF FZDZ AROUND THE STARKWEATHER AREA (JUST NORTH
OF DEVILS LAKE). IT WAS LIGHT...AND VERY PATCHY (NO FZDZ IN DEVILS
LAKE)...BUT DID CAUSE THE SPOTTER TO SLOW DOWN A BIT. THERE ARE
LIKELY PATCHY AREAS OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PATCHY
AREAS OF SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS (AND THUS FZDZ). FZDZ HAS JUST
BEEN REPORTED IN BISMARCK AS WELL...AND WITH MANY AREAS BEGINNING
TO INDICATE LOWER VSBY...WILL MENTION SCATTERED FLURRIES/PATCHY
FZDZ MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. AGAIN...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A
HAZARD CONSIDERING THE PATCHY COVERAGE AND BRIEF DURATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...DO NOT FORESEE THE
TEMPERATURE DROPPING. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO BE STEADY...AND
RAISED THE MIN TEMP ACCORDINGLY.

THE BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ENTERING SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA STARTS
AS A FINE MIST...BUT QUICKLY BECOMES FLURRIES (WITH LARGER
FLAKES!)...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO EYE WITNESS REPORTS. NOTHING HAS
ACCUMULATED TO THE WEST THAT WOULD LEAD TO A HIGH POP/LOW QPF
SCENARIO...AND WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST OF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED FLURRIES RIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUDS AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AND BE INTO NW MN FRIDAY. AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA ATTM. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT PRESENT. BUT GOT A LAYER OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TONIGHT AS TROUGH
MOVES INTO ERN ND. RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS RIGHT NEAR THE
MINOT AND BISMARCK RADAR SITES AND WAS A FEW REPORTS THIS AFTN OF
LIGHT MIST IN NORTH CENTRAL SD AND EARLIER TODAY NEAR BISMARCK.
THINK AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR A FEW FLURRIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT SO INCLUDED. UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO NW MN FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
FLURRY MENTION AND CONTINUE A FLURRY/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMBO IN
PARTS OF WCNTRL MN AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE OF THAT
MAINLY FERGUS FALLS-WADENA AREAS. OVERALL THOUGH EXPECT A CLOUDY
SKY.

FRI SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ERN FCST AREA. ALL IN ALL ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPS WENT A TAD WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS DUE TO
CLOUDS. AFTN TEMPS TO WARM UP SLOWLY INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BUT CLOUDS LIKELY TOUGH TO
GET RID OF. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE
TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA GIVING ONCE AGAIN SOME LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA. ONCE AGAIN
SOUNDINGS WOULD SHOW SOME THREAT FOR A FZDZ/-SN MIX WITH THIS
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT SO INCLUDED TO MATCH UP WITH WFO DLH. TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND TO BE MILD RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY RESPECTIVELY WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE SO TROUGH
DIGGING DAY5 AND THEREAFTER. THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DIG TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS MON THROUGH WED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE
TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER
THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ON MON BY A DEGREE OR SO. TEMPS WERE
LOWERED ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON TUE AND HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ONE
TO FOUR DEGREES ON WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
LIKELY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL
BE THE CHANCES FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...WITH BEST CHANCES AT KDVL.
WILL MONITOR EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THESE LIFR CONDITIONS AND UPDATE
AS NEEDED. SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KBIS 190356
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ONLY SOM MINOR UPDATES LATE THIS EVENING. ADDED A MENTION OF FOG
MOST EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOG IS BECOMING MORE
PREVALENT OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA. STILL THINK AREAS JUST WEST OF
THE CLEARING WILL FOG IN A LITTLE ALSO. UPDATED TEMPERATURES BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN DICKEY/LAMOURE
COUNTIES DIRECTLY. OTHERWISE STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW REPORTS OF VERY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING...AND DONT THINK FZDZ CAN BE RULED
OUT ANYWHERE WE HAVE THE STRATUS. THUS HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE...ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES WHEREVER
WE HAVE THE LOW STRATUS. THIS IS MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING...WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST. DICKINSON CLEARED OUT AND DROPPED DOWN
TO A QUARTER MILE BRIEFLY...BEFORE SETTLING AROUND 3SM. ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HERE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY. TEMPERATURES
WERE LOWERED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ONLY A COUPLE MINOR CHANGES TO THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. LOWERED
CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW STRATUS HAS CLEARED. ALSO
REMOVED MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR THIS AREA. ADJUSTED MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE A LITTLE NORTH INTO STUTSMAN COUNTY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA THROUGH 9 PM CENTRAL BASED ON CURRENT RADAR RETURNS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM NEAR THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LINE TOWARDS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES UPPER LOW PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLIDING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

FOR TONIGHT...BROAD LAYER OF LOW CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY ERODE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER REMAINING
AREAS. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHILE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

ON FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING
AS WEAK RIDGE MAKES ITS APPROACH. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA BRINGING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED A 332 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY AND THEN
THE LARGE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. THE 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE...HOWEVER PAST MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE...ONLY SLIGHT...OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY MELT THE
SNOW...HOWEVER BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL MOST
LIKELY REFREEZE THE PRECIPITATION INTO SLEET. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL COOL TO BELOW FREEZING AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING...CAUSING ANY
FALLING PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF FREEZING
RAIN...SNOW...AND RAIN. WITH ALL THAT SAID ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY KIND
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY...DEEPENS
AND PROPAGATES EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS MAY
CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. ONCE AGAIN
ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
TO SEE IF ANY MORE PRECIPITATION IS PUSHED INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES TOWARD THE EAST COAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL PROGRESSIVELY GET COLDER
WITH A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR TO IFR STRATUS CONTINUES OVER ALL BUT SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
KDIK SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME MID-HIGH
CLOUDS THEREAFTER. IF STRATUS CONTINUES TO CLEAR AT ITS CURRENT
RATE KISN AND KBIS WOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY HAVE THIS
OCCURRING IN THE 00 UTC TAFS. MORE PESSIMISTIC FOR KMOT AND KJMS
KEEPING THEM IN MVFR-IFR STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE.

HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF FOG AT KDIK WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TWH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 190356
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ONLY SOM MINOR UPDATES LATE THIS EVENING. ADDED A MENTION OF FOG
MOST EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOG IS BECOMING MORE
PREVALENT OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA. STILL THINK AREAS JUST WEST OF
THE CLEARING WILL FOG IN A LITTLE ALSO. UPDATED TEMPERATURES BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN DICKEY/LAMOURE
COUNTIES DIRECTLY. OTHERWISE STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW REPORTS OF VERY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING...AND DONT THINK FZDZ CAN BE RULED
OUT ANYWHERE WE HAVE THE STRATUS. THUS HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE...ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES WHEREVER
WE HAVE THE LOW STRATUS. THIS IS MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING...WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST. DICKINSON CLEARED OUT AND DROPPED DOWN
TO A QUARTER MILE BRIEFLY...BEFORE SETTLING AROUND 3SM. ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HERE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY. TEMPERATURES
WERE LOWERED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ONLY A COUPLE MINOR CHANGES TO THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. LOWERED
CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW STRATUS HAS CLEARED. ALSO
REMOVED MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR THIS AREA. ADJUSTED MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE A LITTLE NORTH INTO STUTSMAN COUNTY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA THROUGH 9 PM CENTRAL BASED ON CURRENT RADAR RETURNS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM NEAR THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LINE TOWARDS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES UPPER LOW PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLIDING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

FOR TONIGHT...BROAD LAYER OF LOW CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY ERODE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER REMAINING
AREAS. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHILE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

ON FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING
AS WEAK RIDGE MAKES ITS APPROACH. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA BRINGING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED A 332 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY AND THEN
THE LARGE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. THE 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE...HOWEVER PAST MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE...ONLY SLIGHT...OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY MELT THE
SNOW...HOWEVER BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL MOST
LIKELY REFREEZE THE PRECIPITATION INTO SLEET. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL COOL TO BELOW FREEZING AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING...CAUSING ANY
FALLING PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF FREEZING
RAIN...SNOW...AND RAIN. WITH ALL THAT SAID ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY KIND
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY...DEEPENS
AND PROPAGATES EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS MAY
CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. ONCE AGAIN
ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
TO SEE IF ANY MORE PRECIPITATION IS PUSHED INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES TOWARD THE EAST COAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL PROGRESSIVELY GET COLDER
WITH A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR TO IFR STRATUS CONTINUES OVER ALL BUT SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
KDIK SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME MID-HIGH
CLOUDS THEREAFTER. IF STRATUS CONTINUES TO CLEAR AT ITS CURRENT
RATE KISN AND KBIS WOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY HAVE THIS
OCCURRING IN THE 00 UTC TAFS. MORE PESSIMISTIC FOR KMOT AND KJMS
KEEPING THEM IN MVFR-IFR STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE.

HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF FOG AT KDIK WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TWH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 190356
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ONLY SOM MINOR UPDATES LATE THIS EVENING. ADDED A MENTION OF FOG
MOST EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOG IS BECOMING MORE
PREVALENT OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA. STILL THINK AREAS JUST WEST OF
THE CLEARING WILL FOG IN A LITTLE ALSO. UPDATED TEMPERATURES BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN DICKEY/LAMOURE
COUNTIES DIRECTLY. OTHERWISE STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW REPORTS OF VERY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING...AND DONT THINK FZDZ CAN BE RULED
OUT ANYWHERE WE HAVE THE STRATUS. THUS HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE...ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES WHEREVER
WE HAVE THE LOW STRATUS. THIS IS MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING...WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST. DICKINSON CLEARED OUT AND DROPPED DOWN
TO A QUARTER MILE BRIEFLY...BEFORE SETTLING AROUND 3SM. ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HERE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY. TEMPERATURES
WERE LOWERED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ONLY A COUPLE MINOR CHANGES TO THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. LOWERED
CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW STRATUS HAS CLEARED. ALSO
REMOVED MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR THIS AREA. ADJUSTED MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE A LITTLE NORTH INTO STUTSMAN COUNTY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA THROUGH 9 PM CENTRAL BASED ON CURRENT RADAR RETURNS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM NEAR THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LINE TOWARDS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES UPPER LOW PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLIDING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

FOR TONIGHT...BROAD LAYER OF LOW CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY ERODE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER REMAINING
AREAS. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHILE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

ON FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING
AS WEAK RIDGE MAKES ITS APPROACH. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA BRINGING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED A 332 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY AND THEN
THE LARGE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. THE 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE...HOWEVER PAST MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE...ONLY SLIGHT...OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY MELT THE
SNOW...HOWEVER BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL MOST
LIKELY REFREEZE THE PRECIPITATION INTO SLEET. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL COOL TO BELOW FREEZING AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING...CAUSING ANY
FALLING PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF FREEZING
RAIN...SNOW...AND RAIN. WITH ALL THAT SAID ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY KIND
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY...DEEPENS
AND PROPAGATES EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS MAY
CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. ONCE AGAIN
ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
TO SEE IF ANY MORE PRECIPITATION IS PUSHED INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES TOWARD THE EAST COAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL PROGRESSIVELY GET COLDER
WITH A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR TO IFR STRATUS CONTINUES OVER ALL BUT SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
KDIK SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME MID-HIGH
CLOUDS THEREAFTER. IF STRATUS CONTINUES TO CLEAR AT ITS CURRENT
RATE KISN AND KBIS WOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY HAVE THIS
OCCURRING IN THE 00 UTC TAFS. MORE PESSIMISTIC FOR KMOT AND KJMS
KEEPING THEM IN MVFR-IFR STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE.

HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF FOG AT KDIK WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 190356
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ONLY SOM MINOR UPDATES LATE THIS EVENING. ADDED A MENTION OF FOG
MOST EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOG IS BECOMING MORE
PREVALENT OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA. STILL THINK AREAS JUST WEST OF
THE CLEARING WILL FOG IN A LITTLE ALSO. UPDATED TEMPERATURES BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN DICKEY/LAMOURE
COUNTIES DIRECTLY. OTHERWISE STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW REPORTS OF VERY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING...AND DONT THINK FZDZ CAN BE RULED
OUT ANYWHERE WE HAVE THE STRATUS. THUS HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE...ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES WHEREVER
WE HAVE THE LOW STRATUS. THIS IS MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING...WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST. DICKINSON CLEARED OUT AND DROPPED DOWN
TO A QUARTER MILE BRIEFLY...BEFORE SETTLING AROUND 3SM. ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HERE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY. TEMPERATURES
WERE LOWERED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ONLY A COUPLE MINOR CHANGES TO THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. LOWERED
CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW STRATUS HAS CLEARED. ALSO
REMOVED MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR THIS AREA. ADJUSTED MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE A LITTLE NORTH INTO STUTSMAN COUNTY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA THROUGH 9 PM CENTRAL BASED ON CURRENT RADAR RETURNS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM NEAR THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LINE TOWARDS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES UPPER LOW PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLIDING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

FOR TONIGHT...BROAD LAYER OF LOW CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY ERODE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER REMAINING
AREAS. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHILE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

ON FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING
AS WEAK RIDGE MAKES ITS APPROACH. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA BRINGING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED A 332 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY AND THEN
THE LARGE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. THE 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE...HOWEVER PAST MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE...ONLY SLIGHT...OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY MELT THE
SNOW...HOWEVER BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL MOST
LIKELY REFREEZE THE PRECIPITATION INTO SLEET. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL COOL TO BELOW FREEZING AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING...CAUSING ANY
FALLING PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF FREEZING
RAIN...SNOW...AND RAIN. WITH ALL THAT SAID ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY KIND
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY...DEEPENS
AND PROPAGATES EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS MAY
CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. ONCE AGAIN
ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
TO SEE IF ANY MORE PRECIPITATION IS PUSHED INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES TOWARD THE EAST COAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL PROGRESSIVELY GET COLDER
WITH A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR TO IFR STRATUS CONTINUES OVER ALL BUT SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
KDIK SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME MID-HIGH
CLOUDS THEREAFTER. IF STRATUS CONTINUES TO CLEAR AT ITS CURRENT
RATE KISN AND KBIS WOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY HAVE THIS
OCCURRING IN THE 00 UTC TAFS. MORE PESSIMISTIC FOR KMOT AND KJMS
KEEPING THEM IN MVFR-IFR STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE.

HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF FOG AT KDIK WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 190209
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
809 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN DICKEY/LAMOURE
COUNTIES DIRECTLY. OTHERWISE STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW REPORTS OF VERY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING...AND DONT THINK FZDZ CAN BE RULED
OUT ANYWHERE WE HAVE THE STRATUS. THUS HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE...ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES WHEREVER
WE HAVE THE LOW STRATUS. THIS IS MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING...WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST. DICKINSON CLEARED OUT AND DROPPED DOWN
TO A QUARTER MILE BRIEFLY...BEFORE SETTLING AROUND 3SM. ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HERE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY. TEMPERATURES
WERE LOWERED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ONLY A COUPLE MINOR CHANGES TO THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. LOWERED
CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW STRATUS HAS CLEARED. ALSO
REMOVED MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR THIS AREA. ADJUSTED MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE A LITTLE NORTH INTO STUTSMAN COUNTY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA THROUGH 9 PM CENTRAL BASED ON CURRENT RADAR RETURNS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM NEAR THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LINE TOWARDS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES UPPER LOW PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLIDING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

FOR TONIGHT...BROAD LAYER OF LOW CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY ERODE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER REMAINING
AREAS. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHILE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

ON FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING
AS WEAK RIDGE MAKES ITS APPROACH. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA BRINGING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED A 332 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY AND THEN
THE LARGE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. THE 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE...HOWEVER PAST MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE...ONLY SLIGHT...OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY MELT THE
SNOW...HOWEVER BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL MOST
LIKELY REFREEZE THE PRECIPITATION INTO SLEET. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL COOL TO BELOW FREEZING AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING...CAUSING ANY
FALLING PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF FREEZING
RAIN...SNOW...AND RAIN. WITH ALL THAT SAID ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY KIND
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY...DEEPENS
AND PROPAGATES EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS MAY
CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. ONCE AGAIN
ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
TO SEE IF ANY MORE PRECIPITATION IS PUSHED INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES TOWARD THE EAST COAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL PROGRESSIVELY GET COLDER
WITH A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR TO IFR STRATUS CONTINUES OVER ALL BUT SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
KDIK SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME MID-HIGH
CLOUDS THEREAFTER. IF STRATUS CONTINUES TO CLEAR AT ITS CURRENT
RATE KISN AND KBIS WOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY HAVE THIS
OCCURRING IN THE 00 UTC TAFS. MORE PESSIMISTIC FOR KMOT AND KJMS
KEEPING THEM IN MVFR-IFR STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE.

HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF FOG AT KDIK WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 190209
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
809 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN DICKEY/LAMOURE
COUNTIES DIRECTLY. OTHERWISE STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW REPORTS OF VERY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING...AND DONT THINK FZDZ CAN BE RULED
OUT ANYWHERE WE HAVE THE STRATUS. THUS HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE...ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES WHEREVER
WE HAVE THE LOW STRATUS. THIS IS MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING...WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST. DICKINSON CLEARED OUT AND DROPPED DOWN
TO A QUARTER MILE BRIEFLY...BEFORE SETTLING AROUND 3SM. ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HERE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY. TEMPERATURES
WERE LOWERED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ONLY A COUPLE MINOR CHANGES TO THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. LOWERED
CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW STRATUS HAS CLEARED. ALSO
REMOVED MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR THIS AREA. ADJUSTED MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE A LITTLE NORTH INTO STUTSMAN COUNTY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA THROUGH 9 PM CENTRAL BASED ON CURRENT RADAR RETURNS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM NEAR THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LINE TOWARDS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES UPPER LOW PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLIDING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

FOR TONIGHT...BROAD LAYER OF LOW CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY ERODE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER REMAINING
AREAS. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHILE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

ON FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING
AS WEAK RIDGE MAKES ITS APPROACH. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA BRINGING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED A 332 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY AND THEN
THE LARGE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. THE 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE...HOWEVER PAST MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE...ONLY SLIGHT...OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY MELT THE
SNOW...HOWEVER BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL MOST
LIKELY REFREEZE THE PRECIPITATION INTO SLEET. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL COOL TO BELOW FREEZING AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING...CAUSING ANY
FALLING PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF FREEZING
RAIN...SNOW...AND RAIN. WITH ALL THAT SAID ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY KIND
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY...DEEPENS
AND PROPAGATES EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS MAY
CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. ONCE AGAIN
ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
TO SEE IF ANY MORE PRECIPITATION IS PUSHED INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES TOWARD THE EAST COAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL PROGRESSIVELY GET COLDER
WITH A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR TO IFR STRATUS CONTINUES OVER ALL BUT SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
KDIK SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME MID-HIGH
CLOUDS THEREAFTER. IF STRATUS CONTINUES TO CLEAR AT ITS CURRENT
RATE KISN AND KBIS WOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY HAVE THIS
OCCURRING IN THE 00 UTC TAFS. MORE PESSIMISTIC FOR KMOT AND KJMS
KEEPING THEM IN MVFR-IFR STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE.

HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF FOG AT KDIK WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TWH






000
FXUS63 KFGF 190205
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
805 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

RECEIVED A REPORT OF FZDZ AROUND THE STARKWEATHER AREA (JUST NORTH
OF DEVILS LAKE). IT WAS LIGHT...AND VERY PATCHY (NO FZDZ IN DEVILS
LAKE)...BUT DID CAUSE THE SPOTTER TO SLOW DOWN A BIT. THERE ARE
LIKELY PATCHY AREAS OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PATCHY
AREAS OF SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS (AND THUS FZDZ). FZDZ HAS JUST
BEEN REPORTED IN BISMARCK AS WELL...AND WITH MANY AREAS BEGINNING
TO INDICATE LOWER VSBY...WILL MENTION SCATTERED FLURRIES/PATCHY
FZDZ MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. AGAIN...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A
HAZARD CONSIDERING THE PATCHY COVERAGE AND BRIEF DURATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...DO NOT FORESEE THE
TEMPERATURE DROPPING. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO BE STEADY...AND
RAISED THE MIN TEMP ACCORDINGLY.

THE BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ENTERING SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA STARTS
AS A FINE MIST...BUT QUICKLY BECOMES FLURRIES (WITH LARGER
FLAKES!)...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO EYE WITNESS REPORTS. NOTHING HAS
ACCUMULATED TO THE WEST THAT WOULD LEAD TO A HIGH POP/LOW QPF
SCENARIO...AND WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST OF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED FLURRIES RIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUDS AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AND BE INTO NW MN FRIDAY. AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA ATTM. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT PRESENT. BUT GOT A LAYER OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TONIGHT AS TROUGH
MOVES INTO ERN ND. RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS RIGHT NEAR THE
MINOT AND BISMARCK RADAR SITES AND WAS A FEW REPORTS THIS AFTN OF
LIGHT MIST IN NORTH CENTRAL SD AND EARLIER TODAY NEAR BISMARCK.
THINK AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR A FEW FLURRIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT SO INCLUDED. UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO NW MN FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
FLURRY MENTION AND CONTINUE A FLURRY/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMBO IN
PARTS OF WCNTRL MN AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE OF THAT
MAINLY FERGUS FALLS-WADENA AREAS. OVERALL THOUGH EXPECT A CLOUDY
SKY.

FRI SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ERN FCST AREA. ALL IN ALL ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPS WENT A TAD WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS DUE TO
CLOUDS. AFTN TEMPS TO WARM UP SLOWLY INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BUT CLOUDS LIKELY TOUGH TO
GET RID OF. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE
TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA GIVING ONCE AGAIN SOME LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA. ONCE AGAIN
SOUNDINGS WOULD SHOW SOME THREAT FOR A FZDZ/-SN MIX WITH THIS
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT SO INCLUDED TO MATCH UP WITH WFO DLH. TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND TO BE MILD RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY RESPECTIVELY WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE SO TROUGH
DIGGING DAY5 AND THEREAFTER. THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DIG TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS MON THROUGH WED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE
TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER
THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ON MON BY A DEGREE OR SO. TEMPS WERE
LOWERED ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON TUE AND HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ONE
TO FOUR DEGREES ON WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERAL TREND WILL BE LOWERING CIGS THIS EVENING...WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD). MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS...BUT SOME
GUIDANCE DOES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
AND ADJUST IF NEEDED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 190205
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
805 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

RECEIVED A REPORT OF FZDZ AROUND THE STARKWEATHER AREA (JUST NORTH
OF DEVILS LAKE). IT WAS LIGHT...AND VERY PATCHY (NO FZDZ IN DEVILS
LAKE)...BUT DID CAUSE THE SPOTTER TO SLOW DOWN A BIT. THERE ARE
LIKELY PATCHY AREAS OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PATCHY
AREAS OF SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS (AND THUS FZDZ). FZDZ HAS JUST
BEEN REPORTED IN BISMARCK AS WELL...AND WITH MANY AREAS BEGINNING
TO INDICATE LOWER VSBY...WILL MENTION SCATTERED FLURRIES/PATCHY
FZDZ MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. AGAIN...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A
HAZARD CONSIDERING THE PATCHY COVERAGE AND BRIEF DURATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...DO NOT FORESEE THE
TEMPERATURE DROPPING. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO BE STEADY...AND
RAISED THE MIN TEMP ACCORDINGLY.

THE BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ENTERING SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA STARTS
AS A FINE MIST...BUT QUICKLY BECOMES FLURRIES (WITH LARGER
FLAKES!)...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO EYE WITNESS REPORTS. NOTHING HAS
ACCUMULATED TO THE WEST THAT WOULD LEAD TO A HIGH POP/LOW QPF
SCENARIO...AND WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST OF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED FLURRIES RIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUDS AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AND BE INTO NW MN FRIDAY. AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA ATTM. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT PRESENT. BUT GOT A LAYER OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TONIGHT AS TROUGH
MOVES INTO ERN ND. RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS RIGHT NEAR THE
MINOT AND BISMARCK RADAR SITES AND WAS A FEW REPORTS THIS AFTN OF
LIGHT MIST IN NORTH CENTRAL SD AND EARLIER TODAY NEAR BISMARCK.
THINK AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR A FEW FLURRIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT SO INCLUDED. UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO NW MN FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
FLURRY MENTION AND CONTINUE A FLURRY/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMBO IN
PARTS OF WCNTRL MN AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE OF THAT
MAINLY FERGUS FALLS-WADENA AREAS. OVERALL THOUGH EXPECT A CLOUDY
SKY.

FRI SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ERN FCST AREA. ALL IN ALL ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPS WENT A TAD WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS DUE TO
CLOUDS. AFTN TEMPS TO WARM UP SLOWLY INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BUT CLOUDS LIKELY TOUGH TO
GET RID OF. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE
TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA GIVING ONCE AGAIN SOME LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA. ONCE AGAIN
SOUNDINGS WOULD SHOW SOME THREAT FOR A FZDZ/-SN MIX WITH THIS
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT SO INCLUDED TO MATCH UP WITH WFO DLH. TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND TO BE MILD RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY RESPECTIVELY WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE SO TROUGH
DIGGING DAY5 AND THEREAFTER. THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DIG TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS MON THROUGH WED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE
TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER
THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ON MON BY A DEGREE OR SO. TEMPS WERE
LOWERED ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON TUE AND HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ONE
TO FOUR DEGREES ON WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERAL TREND WILL BE LOWERING CIGS THIS EVENING...WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD). MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS...BUT SOME
GUIDANCE DOES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
AND ADJUST IF NEEDED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 190205
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
805 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

RECEIVED A REPORT OF FZDZ AROUND THE STARKWEATHER AREA (JUST NORTH
OF DEVILS LAKE). IT WAS LIGHT...AND VERY PATCHY (NO FZDZ IN DEVILS
LAKE)...BUT DID CAUSE THE SPOTTER TO SLOW DOWN A BIT. THERE ARE
LIKELY PATCHY AREAS OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PATCHY
AREAS OF SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS (AND THUS FZDZ). FZDZ HAS JUST
BEEN REPORTED IN BISMARCK AS WELL...AND WITH MANY AREAS BEGINNING
TO INDICATE LOWER VSBY...WILL MENTION SCATTERED FLURRIES/PATCHY
FZDZ MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. AGAIN...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A
HAZARD CONSIDERING THE PATCHY COVERAGE AND BRIEF DURATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...DO NOT FORESEE THE
TEMPERATURE DROPPING. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO BE STEADY...AND
RAISED THE MIN TEMP ACCORDINGLY.

THE BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ENTERING SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA STARTS
AS A FINE MIST...BUT QUICKLY BECOMES FLURRIES (WITH LARGER
FLAKES!)...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO EYE WITNESS REPORTS. NOTHING HAS
ACCUMULATED TO THE WEST THAT WOULD LEAD TO A HIGH POP/LOW QPF
SCENARIO...AND WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST OF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED FLURRIES RIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUDS AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AND BE INTO NW MN FRIDAY. AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA ATTM. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT PRESENT. BUT GOT A LAYER OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TONIGHT AS TROUGH
MOVES INTO ERN ND. RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS RIGHT NEAR THE
MINOT AND BISMARCK RADAR SITES AND WAS A FEW REPORTS THIS AFTN OF
LIGHT MIST IN NORTH CENTRAL SD AND EARLIER TODAY NEAR BISMARCK.
THINK AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR A FEW FLURRIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT SO INCLUDED. UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO NW MN FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
FLURRY MENTION AND CONTINUE A FLURRY/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMBO IN
PARTS OF WCNTRL MN AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE OF THAT
MAINLY FERGUS FALLS-WADENA AREAS. OVERALL THOUGH EXPECT A CLOUDY
SKY.

FRI SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ERN FCST AREA. ALL IN ALL ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPS WENT A TAD WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS DUE TO
CLOUDS. AFTN TEMPS TO WARM UP SLOWLY INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BUT CLOUDS LIKELY TOUGH TO
GET RID OF. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE
TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA GIVING ONCE AGAIN SOME LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA. ONCE AGAIN
SOUNDINGS WOULD SHOW SOME THREAT FOR A FZDZ/-SN MIX WITH THIS
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT SO INCLUDED TO MATCH UP WITH WFO DLH. TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND TO BE MILD RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY RESPECTIVELY WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE SO TROUGH
DIGGING DAY5 AND THEREAFTER. THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DIG TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS MON THROUGH WED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE
TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER
THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ON MON BY A DEGREE OR SO. TEMPS WERE
LOWERED ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON TUE AND HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ONE
TO FOUR DEGREES ON WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERAL TREND WILL BE LOWERING CIGS THIS EVENING...WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD). MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS...BUT SOME
GUIDANCE DOES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
AND ADJUST IF NEEDED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 190205
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
805 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

RECEIVED A REPORT OF FZDZ AROUND THE STARKWEATHER AREA (JUST NORTH
OF DEVILS LAKE). IT WAS LIGHT...AND VERY PATCHY (NO FZDZ IN DEVILS
LAKE)...BUT DID CAUSE THE SPOTTER TO SLOW DOWN A BIT. THERE ARE
LIKELY PATCHY AREAS OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PATCHY
AREAS OF SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS (AND THUS FZDZ). FZDZ HAS JUST
BEEN REPORTED IN BISMARCK AS WELL...AND WITH MANY AREAS BEGINNING
TO INDICATE LOWER VSBY...WILL MENTION SCATTERED FLURRIES/PATCHY
FZDZ MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. AGAIN...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A
HAZARD CONSIDERING THE PATCHY COVERAGE AND BRIEF DURATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...DO NOT FORESEE THE
TEMPERATURE DROPPING. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO BE STEADY...AND
RAISED THE MIN TEMP ACCORDINGLY.

THE BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ENTERING SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA STARTS
AS A FINE MIST...BUT QUICKLY BECOMES FLURRIES (WITH LARGER
FLAKES!)...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO EYE WITNESS REPORTS. NOTHING HAS
ACCUMULATED TO THE WEST THAT WOULD LEAD TO A HIGH POP/LOW QPF
SCENARIO...AND WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST OF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED FLURRIES RIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUDS AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AND BE INTO NW MN FRIDAY. AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA ATTM. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT PRESENT. BUT GOT A LAYER OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TONIGHT AS TROUGH
MOVES INTO ERN ND. RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS RIGHT NEAR THE
MINOT AND BISMARCK RADAR SITES AND WAS A FEW REPORTS THIS AFTN OF
LIGHT MIST IN NORTH CENTRAL SD AND EARLIER TODAY NEAR BISMARCK.
THINK AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR A FEW FLURRIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT SO INCLUDED. UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO NW MN FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
FLURRY MENTION AND CONTINUE A FLURRY/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMBO IN
PARTS OF WCNTRL MN AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE OF THAT
MAINLY FERGUS FALLS-WADENA AREAS. OVERALL THOUGH EXPECT A CLOUDY
SKY.

FRI SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ERN FCST AREA. ALL IN ALL ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPS WENT A TAD WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS DUE TO
CLOUDS. AFTN TEMPS TO WARM UP SLOWLY INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BUT CLOUDS LIKELY TOUGH TO
GET RID OF. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE
TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA GIVING ONCE AGAIN SOME LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA. ONCE AGAIN
SOUNDINGS WOULD SHOW SOME THREAT FOR A FZDZ/-SN MIX WITH THIS
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT SO INCLUDED TO MATCH UP WITH WFO DLH. TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND TO BE MILD RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY RESPECTIVELY WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE SO TROUGH
DIGGING DAY5 AND THEREAFTER. THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DIG TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS MON THROUGH WED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE
TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER
THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ON MON BY A DEGREE OR SO. TEMPS WERE
LOWERED ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON TUE AND HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ONE
TO FOUR DEGREES ON WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERAL TREND WILL BE LOWERING CIGS THIS EVENING...WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD). MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS...BUT SOME
GUIDANCE DOES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
AND ADJUST IF NEEDED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 190205
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
805 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

RECEIVED A REPORT OF FZDZ AROUND THE STARKWEATHER AREA (JUST NORTH
OF DEVILS LAKE). IT WAS LIGHT...AND VERY PATCHY (NO FZDZ IN DEVILS
LAKE)...BUT DID CAUSE THE SPOTTER TO SLOW DOWN A BIT. THERE ARE
LIKELY PATCHY AREAS OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PATCHY
AREAS OF SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS (AND THUS FZDZ). FZDZ HAS JUST
BEEN REPORTED IN BISMARCK AS WELL...AND WITH MANY AREAS BEGINNING
TO INDICATE LOWER VSBY...WILL MENTION SCATTERED FLURRIES/PATCHY
FZDZ MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. AGAIN...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A
HAZARD CONSIDERING THE PATCHY COVERAGE AND BRIEF DURATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...DO NOT FORESEE THE
TEMPERATURE DROPPING. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO BE STEADY...AND
RAISED THE MIN TEMP ACCORDINGLY.

THE BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ENTERING SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA STARTS
AS A FINE MIST...BUT QUICKLY BECOMES FLURRIES (WITH LARGER
FLAKES!)...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO EYE WITNESS REPORTS. NOTHING HAS
ACCUMULATED TO THE WEST THAT WOULD LEAD TO A HIGH POP/LOW QPF
SCENARIO...AND WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST OF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED FLURRIES RIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUDS AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AND BE INTO NW MN FRIDAY. AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA ATTM. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT PRESENT. BUT GOT A LAYER OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TONIGHT AS TROUGH
MOVES INTO ERN ND. RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS RIGHT NEAR THE
MINOT AND BISMARCK RADAR SITES AND WAS A FEW REPORTS THIS AFTN OF
LIGHT MIST IN NORTH CENTRAL SD AND EARLIER TODAY NEAR BISMARCK.
THINK AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR A FEW FLURRIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT SO INCLUDED. UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO NW MN FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
FLURRY MENTION AND CONTINUE A FLURRY/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMBO IN
PARTS OF WCNTRL MN AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE OF THAT
MAINLY FERGUS FALLS-WADENA AREAS. OVERALL THOUGH EXPECT A CLOUDY
SKY.

FRI SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ERN FCST AREA. ALL IN ALL ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPS WENT A TAD WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS DUE TO
CLOUDS. AFTN TEMPS TO WARM UP SLOWLY INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BUT CLOUDS LIKELY TOUGH TO
GET RID OF. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE
TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA GIVING ONCE AGAIN SOME LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA. ONCE AGAIN
SOUNDINGS WOULD SHOW SOME THREAT FOR A FZDZ/-SN MIX WITH THIS
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT SO INCLUDED TO MATCH UP WITH WFO DLH. TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND TO BE MILD RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY RESPECTIVELY WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE SO TROUGH
DIGGING DAY5 AND THEREAFTER. THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DIG TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS MON THROUGH WED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE
TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER
THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ON MON BY A DEGREE OR SO. TEMPS WERE
LOWERED ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON TUE AND HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ONE
TO FOUR DEGREES ON WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERAL TREND WILL BE LOWERING CIGS THIS EVENING...WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD). MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS...BUT SOME
GUIDANCE DOES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
AND ADJUST IF NEEDED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 190040
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
640 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...DO NOT FORESEE THE
TEMPERATURE DROPPING. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO BE STEADY...AND
RAISED THE MIN TEMP ACCORDINGLY.

THE BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ENTERING SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA STARTS
AS A FINE MIST...BUT QUICKLY BECOMES FLURRIES (WITH LARGER
FLAKES!)...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO EYE WITNESS REPORTS. NOTHING HAS
ACCUMULATED TO THE WEST THAT WOULD LEAD TO A HIGH POP/LOW QPF
SCENARIO...AND WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST OF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED FLURRIES RIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUDS AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AND BE INTO NW MN FRIDAY. AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA ATTM. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT PRESENT. BUT GOT A LAYER OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TONIGHT AS TROUGH
MOVES INTO ERN ND. RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS RIGHT NEAR THE
MINOT AND BISMARCK RADAR SITES AND WAS A FEW REPORTS THIS AFTN OF
LIGHT MIST IN NORTH CENTRAL SD AND EARLIER TODAY NEAR BISMARCK.
THINK AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR A FEW FLURRIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT SO INCLUDED. UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO NW MN FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
FLURRY MENTION AND CONTINUE A FLURRY/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMBO IN
PARTS OF WCNTRL MN AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE OF THAT
MAINLY FERGUS FALLS-WADENA AREAS. OVERALL THOUGH EXPECT A CLOUDY
SKY.

FRI SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ERN FCST AREA. ALL IN ALL ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPS WENT A TAD WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS DUE TO
CLOUDS. AFTN TEMPS TO WARM UP SLOWLY INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BUT CLOUDS LIKELY TOUGH TO
GET RID OF. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE
TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA GIVING ONCE AGAIN SOME LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA. ONCE AGAIN
SOUNDINGS WOULD SHOW SOME THREAT FOR A FZDZ/-SN MIX WITH THIS
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT SO INCLUDED TO MATCH UP WITH WFO DLH. TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND TO BE MILD RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY RESPECTIVELY WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE SO TROUGH
DIGGING DAY5 AND THEREAFTER. THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DIG TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS MON THROUGH WED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE
TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER
THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ON MON BY A DEGREE OR SO. TEMPS WERE
LOWERED ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON TUE AND HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ONE
TO FOUR DEGREES ON WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERAL TREND WILL BE LOWERING CIGS THIS EVENING...WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD). MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS...BUT SOME
GUIDANCE DOES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
AND ADJUST IF NEEDED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 190040
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
640 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...DO NOT FORESEE THE
TEMPERATURE DROPPING. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO BE STEADY...AND
RAISED THE MIN TEMP ACCORDINGLY.

THE BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ENTERING SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA STARTS
AS A FINE MIST...BUT QUICKLY BECOMES FLURRIES (WITH LARGER
FLAKES!)...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO EYE WITNESS REPORTS. NOTHING HAS
ACCUMULATED TO THE WEST THAT WOULD LEAD TO A HIGH POP/LOW QPF
SCENARIO...AND WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST OF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED FLURRIES RIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUDS AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AND BE INTO NW MN FRIDAY. AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA ATTM. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT PRESENT. BUT GOT A LAYER OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TONIGHT AS TROUGH
MOVES INTO ERN ND. RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS RIGHT NEAR THE
MINOT AND BISMARCK RADAR SITES AND WAS A FEW REPORTS THIS AFTN OF
LIGHT MIST IN NORTH CENTRAL SD AND EARLIER TODAY NEAR BISMARCK.
THINK AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR A FEW FLURRIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT SO INCLUDED. UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO NW MN FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
FLURRY MENTION AND CONTINUE A FLURRY/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMBO IN
PARTS OF WCNTRL MN AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE OF THAT
MAINLY FERGUS FALLS-WADENA AREAS. OVERALL THOUGH EXPECT A CLOUDY
SKY.

FRI SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ERN FCST AREA. ALL IN ALL ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPS WENT A TAD WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS DUE TO
CLOUDS. AFTN TEMPS TO WARM UP SLOWLY INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BUT CLOUDS LIKELY TOUGH TO
GET RID OF. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE
TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA GIVING ONCE AGAIN SOME LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA. ONCE AGAIN
SOUNDINGS WOULD SHOW SOME THREAT FOR A FZDZ/-SN MIX WITH THIS
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT SO INCLUDED TO MATCH UP WITH WFO DLH. TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND TO BE MILD RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY RESPECTIVELY WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE SO TROUGH
DIGGING DAY5 AND THEREAFTER. THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DIG TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS MON THROUGH WED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE
TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER
THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ON MON BY A DEGREE OR SO. TEMPS WERE
LOWERED ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON TUE AND HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ONE
TO FOUR DEGREES ON WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERAL TREND WILL BE LOWERING CIGS THIS EVENING...WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD). MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS...BUT SOME
GUIDANCE DOES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
AND ADJUST IF NEEDED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 190040
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
640 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...DO NOT FORESEE THE
TEMPERATURE DROPPING. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO BE STEADY...AND
RAISED THE MIN TEMP ACCORDINGLY.

THE BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ENTERING SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA STARTS
AS A FINE MIST...BUT QUICKLY BECOMES FLURRIES (WITH LARGER
FLAKES!)...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO EYE WITNESS REPORTS. NOTHING HAS
ACCUMULATED TO THE WEST THAT WOULD LEAD TO A HIGH POP/LOW QPF
SCENARIO...AND WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST OF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED FLURRIES RIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUDS AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AND BE INTO NW MN FRIDAY. AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA ATTM. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT PRESENT. BUT GOT A LAYER OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TONIGHT AS TROUGH
MOVES INTO ERN ND. RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS RIGHT NEAR THE
MINOT AND BISMARCK RADAR SITES AND WAS A FEW REPORTS THIS AFTN OF
LIGHT MIST IN NORTH CENTRAL SD AND EARLIER TODAY NEAR BISMARCK.
THINK AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR A FEW FLURRIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT SO INCLUDED. UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO NW MN FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
FLURRY MENTION AND CONTINUE A FLURRY/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMBO IN
PARTS OF WCNTRL MN AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE OF THAT
MAINLY FERGUS FALLS-WADENA AREAS. OVERALL THOUGH EXPECT A CLOUDY
SKY.

FRI SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ERN FCST AREA. ALL IN ALL ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPS WENT A TAD WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS DUE TO
CLOUDS. AFTN TEMPS TO WARM UP SLOWLY INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BUT CLOUDS LIKELY TOUGH TO
GET RID OF. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE
TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA GIVING ONCE AGAIN SOME LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA. ONCE AGAIN
SOUNDINGS WOULD SHOW SOME THREAT FOR A FZDZ/-SN MIX WITH THIS
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT SO INCLUDED TO MATCH UP WITH WFO DLH. TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND TO BE MILD RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY RESPECTIVELY WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE SO TROUGH
DIGGING DAY5 AND THEREAFTER. THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DIG TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS MON THROUGH WED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE
TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER
THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ON MON BY A DEGREE OR SO. TEMPS WERE
LOWERED ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON TUE AND HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ONE
TO FOUR DEGREES ON WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERAL TREND WILL BE LOWERING CIGS THIS EVENING...WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD). MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS...BUT SOME
GUIDANCE DOES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
AND ADJUST IF NEEDED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 190040
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
640 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...DO NOT FORESEE THE
TEMPERATURE DROPPING. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO BE STEADY...AND
RAISED THE MIN TEMP ACCORDINGLY.

THE BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ENTERING SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA STARTS
AS A FINE MIST...BUT QUICKLY BECOMES FLURRIES (WITH LARGER
FLAKES!)...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO EYE WITNESS REPORTS. NOTHING HAS
ACCUMULATED TO THE WEST THAT WOULD LEAD TO A HIGH POP/LOW QPF
SCENARIO...AND WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST OF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED FLURRIES RIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUDS AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AND BE INTO NW MN FRIDAY. AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA ATTM. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT PRESENT. BUT GOT A LAYER OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TONIGHT AS TROUGH
MOVES INTO ERN ND. RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS RIGHT NEAR THE
MINOT AND BISMARCK RADAR SITES AND WAS A FEW REPORTS THIS AFTN OF
LIGHT MIST IN NORTH CENTRAL SD AND EARLIER TODAY NEAR BISMARCK.
THINK AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR A FEW FLURRIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT SO INCLUDED. UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO NW MN FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
FLURRY MENTION AND CONTINUE A FLURRY/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMBO IN
PARTS OF WCNTRL MN AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE OF THAT
MAINLY FERGUS FALLS-WADENA AREAS. OVERALL THOUGH EXPECT A CLOUDY
SKY.

FRI SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ERN FCST AREA. ALL IN ALL ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPS WENT A TAD WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS DUE TO
CLOUDS. AFTN TEMPS TO WARM UP SLOWLY INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BUT CLOUDS LIKELY TOUGH TO
GET RID OF. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE
TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA GIVING ONCE AGAIN SOME LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA. ONCE AGAIN
SOUNDINGS WOULD SHOW SOME THREAT FOR A FZDZ/-SN MIX WITH THIS
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT SO INCLUDED TO MATCH UP WITH WFO DLH. TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND TO BE MILD RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY RESPECTIVELY WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE SO TROUGH
DIGGING DAY5 AND THEREAFTER. THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DIG TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS MON THROUGH WED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE
TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER
THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ON MON BY A DEGREE OR SO. TEMPS WERE
LOWERED ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON TUE AND HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ONE
TO FOUR DEGREES ON WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERAL TREND WILL BE LOWERING CIGS THIS EVENING...WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD). MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS...BUT SOME
GUIDANCE DOES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
AND ADJUST IF NEEDED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KBIS 190001
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
601 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 602 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ONLY A COUPLE MINOR CHANGES TO THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. LOWERED
CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW STRATUS HAS CLEARED. ALSO
REMOVED MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR THIS AREA. ADJUSTED MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE A LITTLE NORTH INTO STUTSMAN COUNTY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA THROUGH 9 PM CENTRAL BASED ON CURRENT RADAR RETURNS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM NEAR THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LINE TOWARDS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES UPPER LOW PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLIDING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

FOR TONIGHT...BROAD LAYER OF LOW CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY ERODE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER REMAINING
AREAS. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHILE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

ON FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING
AS WEAK RIDGE MAKES ITS APPROACH. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA BRINGING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED A 332 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY AND THEN
THE LARGE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. THE 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE...HOWEVER PAST MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE...ONLY SLIGHT...OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY MELT THE
SNOW...HOWEVER BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL MOST
LIKELY REFREEZE THE PRECIPITATION INTO SLEET. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL COOL TO BELOW FREEZING AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING...CAUSING ANY
FALLING PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF FREEZING
RAIN...SNOW...AND RAIN. WITH ALL THAT SAID ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY KIND
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY...DEEPENS
AND PROPAGATES EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS MAY
CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. ONCE AGAIN
ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
TO SEE IF ANY MORE PRECIPITATION IS PUSHED INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES TOWARD THE EAST COAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL PROGRESSIVELY GET COLDER
WITH A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR TO IFR STRATUS CONTINUES OVER ALL BUT SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
KDIK SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME MID-HIGH
CLOUDS THEREAFTER. IF STRATUS CONTINUES TO CLEAR AT ITS CURRENT
RATE KISN AND KBIS WOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY HAVE THIS
OCCURRING IN THE 00 UTC TAFS. MORE PESSIMISTIC FOR KMOT AND KJMS
KEEPING THEM IN MVFR-IFR STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TWH






000
FXUS63 KFGF 182325
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUDS AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AND BE INTO NW MN FRIDAY. AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA ATTM. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT PRESENT. BUT GOT A LAYER OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TONIGHT AS TROUGH
MOVES INTO ERN ND. RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS RIGHT NEAR THE
MINOT AND BISMARCK RADAR SITES AND WAS A FEW REPORTS THIS AFTN OF
LIGHT MIST IN NORTH CENTRAL SD AND EARLIER TODAY NEAR BISMARCK.
THINK AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR A FEW FLURRIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT SO INCLUDED. UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO NW MN FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
FLURRY MENTION AND CONTINUE A FLURRY/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMBO IN
PARTS OF WCNTRL MN AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE OF THAT
MAINLY FERGUS FALLS-WADENA AREAS. OVERALL THOUGH EXPECT A CLOUDY
SKY.

FRI SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ERN FCST AREA. ALL IN ALL ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPS WENT A TAD WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS DUE TO
CLOUDS. AFTN TEMPS TO WARM UP SLOWLY INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BUT CLOUDS LIKELY TOUGH TO
GET RID OF. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE
TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA GIVING ONCE AGAIN SOME LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA. ONCE AGAIN
SOUNDINGS WOULD SHOW SOME THREAT FOR A FZDZ/-SN MIX WITH THIS
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT SO INCLUDED TO MATCH UP WITH WFO DLH. TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND TO BE MILD RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY RESPECTIVELY WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE SO TROUGH
DIGGING DAY5 AND THEREAFTER. THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DIG TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS MON THROUGH WED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE
TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER
THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ON MON BY A DEGREE OR SO. TEMPS WERE
LOWERED ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON TUE AND HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ONE
TO FOUR DEGREES ON WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERAL TREND WILL BE LOWERING CIGS THIS EVENING...WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD). MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS...BUT SOME
GUIDANCE DOES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
AND ADJUST IF NEEDED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 182325
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUDS AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AND BE INTO NW MN FRIDAY. AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA ATTM. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT PRESENT. BUT GOT A LAYER OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TONIGHT AS TROUGH
MOVES INTO ERN ND. RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS RIGHT NEAR THE
MINOT AND BISMARCK RADAR SITES AND WAS A FEW REPORTS THIS AFTN OF
LIGHT MIST IN NORTH CENTRAL SD AND EARLIER TODAY NEAR BISMARCK.
THINK AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR A FEW FLURRIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT SO INCLUDED. UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO NW MN FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
FLURRY MENTION AND CONTINUE A FLURRY/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMBO IN
PARTS OF WCNTRL MN AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE OF THAT
MAINLY FERGUS FALLS-WADENA AREAS. OVERALL THOUGH EXPECT A CLOUDY
SKY.

FRI SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ERN FCST AREA. ALL IN ALL ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPS WENT A TAD WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS DUE TO
CLOUDS. AFTN TEMPS TO WARM UP SLOWLY INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BUT CLOUDS LIKELY TOUGH TO
GET RID OF. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE
TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA GIVING ONCE AGAIN SOME LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA. ONCE AGAIN
SOUNDINGS WOULD SHOW SOME THREAT FOR A FZDZ/-SN MIX WITH THIS
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT SO INCLUDED TO MATCH UP WITH WFO DLH. TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND TO BE MILD RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY RESPECTIVELY WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE SO TROUGH
DIGGING DAY5 AND THEREAFTER. THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DIG TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS MON THROUGH WED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE
TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER
THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ON MON BY A DEGREE OR SO. TEMPS WERE
LOWERED ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON TUE AND HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ONE
TO FOUR DEGREES ON WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERAL TREND WILL BE LOWERING CIGS THIS EVENING...WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD). MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS...BUT SOME
GUIDANCE DOES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
AND ADJUST IF NEEDED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KBIS 182139
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
339 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM NEAR THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LINE TOWARDS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES UPPER LOW PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLIDING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

FOR TONIGHT...BROAD LAYER OF LOW CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY ERODE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER REMAINING
AREAS. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHILE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

ON FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING
AS WEAK RIDGE MAKES ITS APPROACH. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA BRINGING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED A 332 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY AND THEN
THE LARGE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. THE 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE...HOWEVER PAST MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE...ONLY SLIGHT...OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY MELT THE
SNOW...HOWEVER BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL MOST
LIKELY REFREEZE THE PRECIPITATION INTO SLEET. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL COOL TO BELOW FREEZING AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING...CAUSING ANY
FALLING PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF FREEZING
RAIN...SNOW...AND RAIN. WITH ALL THAT SAID ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY KIND
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY...DEEPENS
AND PROPAGATES EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS MAY
CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. ONCE AGAIN
ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
TO SEE IF ANY MORE PRECIPITATION IS PUSHED INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES TOWARD THE EAST COAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL PROGRESSIVELY GET COLDER
WITH A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS REMAIN THROUGHOUT NORTH DAKOTA.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WITH IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY MORNING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 182139
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
339 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM NEAR THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LINE TOWARDS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES UPPER LOW PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLIDING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

FOR TONIGHT...BROAD LAYER OF LOW CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY ERODE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER REMAINING
AREAS. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHILE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

ON FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING
AS WEAK RIDGE MAKES ITS APPROACH. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA BRINGING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED A 332 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY AND THEN
THE LARGE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. THE 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE...HOWEVER PAST MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE...ONLY SLIGHT...OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY MELT THE
SNOW...HOWEVER BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL MOST
LIKELY REFREEZE THE PRECIPITATION INTO SLEET. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL COOL TO BELOW FREEZING AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING...CAUSING ANY
FALLING PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF FREEZING
RAIN...SNOW...AND RAIN. WITH ALL THAT SAID ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY KIND
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY...DEEPENS
AND PROPAGATES EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS MAY
CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. ONCE AGAIN
ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
TO SEE IF ANY MORE PRECIPITATION IS PUSHED INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES TOWARD THE EAST COAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL PROGRESSIVELY GET COLDER
WITH A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS REMAIN THROUGHOUT NORTH DAKOTA.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WITH IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY MORNING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 182135
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
335 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUDS AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AND BE INTO NW MN FRIDAY. AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA ATTM. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT PRESENT. BUT GOT A LAYER OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TONIGHT AS TROUGH
MOVES INTO ERN ND. RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS RIGHT NEAR THE
MINOT AND BISMARCK RADAR SITES AND WAS A FEW REPORTS THIS AFTN OF
LIGHT MIST IN NORTH CENTRAL SD AND EARLIER TODAY NEAR BISMARCK.
THINK AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR A FEW FLURRIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT SO INCLUDED. UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO NW MN FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
FLURRY MENTION AND CONTINUE A FLURRY/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMBO IN
PARTS OF WCNTRL MN AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE OF THAT
MAINLOY FERGUS FALLS-WADENA AREAS. OVERALL THOUGH EXPECT A CLOUDY
SKY.

FRI SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ERN FCST AREA. ALL IN ALL ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPS WENT A TAD WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS DUE TO
CLOUDS. AFTN TEMPS TO WARM UP SLOWLY INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BUT CLOUDS LIKELY TOUGH TO
GET RID OF. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE
TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA GIVING ONCE AGAIN SOME LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA. ONCE AGAIN
SOUNDINGS WOULD SHOW SOME THREAT FOR A FZDZ/-SN MIX WITH THIS
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT SO INCLUDED TO MATCH UP WITH WFO DLH. TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND TO BE MILD RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY RESPECTIVELY WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE SO TROUGH
DIGGING DAY5 AND THEREAFTER. THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DIG TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS MON THROUGH WED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE
TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER
THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ON MON BY A DEGREE OR SO. TEMPS WERE
LOWERED ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON TUE AND HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ONE
TO FOUR DEGREES ON WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST...THE AREA WILL SEE LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS AND MODEL DATA...LOWER MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL BE INCREASING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HRS. THE NAM MOS DATA
SUPPORT CIGS BELOW 1000 FT...WITH NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SATURATED IN
THE LOW LEVES AS WELL. SOME CIGS MAY DIP BELOW 500 FT BY LATE
TOMORROW MORNING ACCORDING TO THE NAM MOS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED CIGS
THIS LOW YET...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MODEL DATA TO
SEE IF THE LIKELIHOOD INCREASES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 182135
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
335 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUDS AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AND BE INTO NW MN FRIDAY. AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA ATTM. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT PRESENT. BUT GOT A LAYER OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TONIGHT AS TROUGH
MOVES INTO ERN ND. RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS RIGHT NEAR THE
MINOT AND BISMARCK RADAR SITES AND WAS A FEW REPORTS THIS AFTN OF
LIGHT MIST IN NORTH CENTRAL SD AND EARLIER TODAY NEAR BISMARCK.
THINK AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR A FEW FLURRIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT SO INCLUDED. UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO NW MN FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
FLURRY MENTION AND CONTINUE A FLURRY/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMBO IN
PARTS OF WCNTRL MN AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE OF THAT
MAINLOY FERGUS FALLS-WADENA AREAS. OVERALL THOUGH EXPECT A CLOUDY
SKY.

FRI SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ERN FCST AREA. ALL IN ALL ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPS WENT A TAD WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS DUE TO
CLOUDS. AFTN TEMPS TO WARM UP SLOWLY INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BUT CLOUDS LIKELY TOUGH TO
GET RID OF. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE
TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA GIVING ONCE AGAIN SOME LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA. ONCE AGAIN
SOUNDINGS WOULD SHOW SOME THREAT FOR A FZDZ/-SN MIX WITH THIS
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT SO INCLUDED TO MATCH UP WITH WFO DLH. TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND TO BE MILD RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY RESPECTIVELY WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE SO TROUGH
DIGGING DAY5 AND THEREAFTER. THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DIG TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS MON THROUGH WED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE
TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER
THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ON MON BY A DEGREE OR SO. TEMPS WERE
LOWERED ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON TUE AND HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ONE
TO FOUR DEGREES ON WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST...THE AREA WILL SEE LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS AND MODEL DATA...LOWER MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL BE INCREASING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HRS. THE NAM MOS DATA
SUPPORT CIGS BELOW 1000 FT...WITH NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SATURATED IN
THE LOW LEVES AS WELL. SOME CIGS MAY DIP BELOW 500 FT BY LATE
TOMORROW MORNING ACCORDING TO THE NAM MOS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED CIGS
THIS LOW YET...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MODEL DATA TO
SEE IF THE LIKELIHOOD INCREASES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG







000
FXUS63 KBIS 181832
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1232 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SOME LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE MAINLY THROUGH SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITH SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AHEAD OF IT. SOME CLEARING
IS STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
BEHIND PROGRESSING UPPER LOW. HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST TO REFLECT
THESE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS UPPER LOW
PASSES THROUGH. A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES...WHILE OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN OBSERVED.
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING WITH A TRANSITION TO ALL PRECIPITATION BEING ALL SNOW
BY MID-DAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH NEAR
WILLISTON/NEWTOWN...MOVING EASTWARD. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS DEPICT
THE VORT/ARC OF THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDING IN A CURVE FROM
NEWTOWN/WILLISTON EAST TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD WAHPETON. AS THIS AREA OF SNOW CONTINUES NORTHWARD...THE
INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED FROM MODERATE/HEAVY IN PLACES TO LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...AND NO
OTHER STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THIS FEATURE. LOW CLOUDS WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY MINOR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS NEEDED ATTENTION THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
CENTERED/CIRCULATING NEAR WILLISTON THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE
SLIDING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...A VERY NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
PER LOCAL RADAR AND WEBCAMS EXTENDS FROM NEWTOWN...EAST INTO VELVA
AND SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MCCLUSKY. THE GFS40 850-700MB 1.5 PVU ATOP A
850MB FRONTOGENESIS AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DEVELOPED
A NARROW MESOSCALE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EARLIER THIS
MORNING. ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH CERTAINLY REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AS AN EARLIER REPORT OF A HALF INCH OCCURRED NEAR
HALLIDAY ON HIGHWAY 8. THE BAND WILL LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHERN
BORDER THROUGH 12Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH ISSUING NOWCASTS TO COVER
THIS FEATURE.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...REACHING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 18Z TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST BY 18Z. THE
LATEST RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF
OMEGA/LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER WITH RESPECT TO ICE
ACROSS KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
FROST POINT EXCEEDS THE TEMPERATURE...SOME SNOW PRODUCTION WILL
RESULT IN THE SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER EXPECT THOSE AMOUNTS TO REMAIN
LIGHT AS THE STRONGEST LIFT REMAINS WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT AREA. AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
OR TWO OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES CAN BE
ANTICIPATED UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. ALL ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRANSITORY MID LEVEL RIDGE
CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRY FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST. HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES DEPICT WARMING ALOFT AT TIMES THAT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
FREEZING MARK - BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING - WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE. CLOUDS
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ICE CRYSTALS FALLING
FROM MID CLOUDS AT TIMES AND NO MID CLOUDS AT TIMES. THIS SUGGESTS A
MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE WAVE. LOOKING AT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE
SUNDAY...THEN IT DEEPENS/STRENGTHENS AS IT REACHES MINNESOTA/IOWA ON
MONDAY...AND TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE MIXED WITH
RAIN OR SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE LARGE
TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(CHRISTMAS EVE) LOOK TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. HIGHS
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEAR TO BE FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS REMAIN THROUGHOUT NORTH DAKOTA.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WITH IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY MORNING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 181832
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1232 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SOME LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE MAINLY THROUGH SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITH SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AHEAD OF IT. SOME CLEARING
IS STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
BEHIND PROGRESSING UPPER LOW. HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST TO REFLECT
THESE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS UPPER LOW
PASSES THROUGH. A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES...WHILE OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN OBSERVED.
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING WITH A TRANSITION TO ALL PRECIPITATION BEING ALL SNOW
BY MID-DAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH NEAR
WILLISTON/NEWTOWN...MOVING EASTWARD. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS DEPICT
THE VORT/ARC OF THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDING IN A CURVE FROM
NEWTOWN/WILLISTON EAST TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD WAHPETON. AS THIS AREA OF SNOW CONTINUES NORTHWARD...THE
INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED FROM MODERATE/HEAVY IN PLACES TO LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...AND NO
OTHER STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THIS FEATURE. LOW CLOUDS WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY MINOR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS NEEDED ATTENTION THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
CENTERED/CIRCULATING NEAR WILLISTON THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE
SLIDING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...A VERY NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
PER LOCAL RADAR AND WEBCAMS EXTENDS FROM NEWTOWN...EAST INTO VELVA
AND SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MCCLUSKY. THE GFS40 850-700MB 1.5 PVU ATOP A
850MB FRONTOGENESIS AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DEVELOPED
A NARROW MESOSCALE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EARLIER THIS
MORNING. ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH CERTAINLY REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AS AN EARLIER REPORT OF A HALF INCH OCCURRED NEAR
HALLIDAY ON HIGHWAY 8. THE BAND WILL LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHERN
BORDER THROUGH 12Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH ISSUING NOWCASTS TO COVER
THIS FEATURE.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...REACHING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 18Z TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST BY 18Z. THE
LATEST RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF
OMEGA/LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER WITH RESPECT TO ICE
ACROSS KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
FROST POINT EXCEEDS THE TEMPERATURE...SOME SNOW PRODUCTION WILL
RESULT IN THE SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER EXPECT THOSE AMOUNTS TO REMAIN
LIGHT AS THE STRONGEST LIFT REMAINS WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT AREA. AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
OR TWO OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES CAN BE
ANTICIPATED UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. ALL ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRANSITORY MID LEVEL RIDGE
CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRY FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST. HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES DEPICT WARMING ALOFT AT TIMES THAT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
FREEZING MARK - BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING - WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE. CLOUDS
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ICE CRYSTALS FALLING
FROM MID CLOUDS AT TIMES AND NO MID CLOUDS AT TIMES. THIS SUGGESTS A
MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE WAVE. LOOKING AT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE
SUNDAY...THEN IT DEEPENS/STRENGTHENS AS IT REACHES MINNESOTA/IOWA ON
MONDAY...AND TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE MIXED WITH
RAIN OR SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE LARGE
TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(CHRISTMAS EVE) LOOK TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. HIGHS
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEAR TO BE FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS REMAIN THROUGHOUT NORTH DAKOTA.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WITH IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY MORNING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 181832
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1232 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SOME LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE MAINLY THROUGH SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITH SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AHEAD OF IT. SOME CLEARING
IS STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
BEHIND PROGRESSING UPPER LOW. HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST TO REFLECT
THESE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS UPPER LOW
PASSES THROUGH. A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES...WHILE OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN OBSERVED.
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING WITH A TRANSITION TO ALL PRECIPITATION BEING ALL SNOW
BY MID-DAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH NEAR
WILLISTON/NEWTOWN...MOVING EASTWARD. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS DEPICT
THE VORT/ARC OF THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDING IN A CURVE FROM
NEWTOWN/WILLISTON EAST TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD WAHPETON. AS THIS AREA OF SNOW CONTINUES NORTHWARD...THE
INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED FROM MODERATE/HEAVY IN PLACES TO LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...AND NO
OTHER STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THIS FEATURE. LOW CLOUDS WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY MINOR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS NEEDED ATTENTION THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
CENTERED/CIRCULATING NEAR WILLISTON THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE
SLIDING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...A VERY NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
PER LOCAL RADAR AND WEBCAMS EXTENDS FROM NEWTOWN...EAST INTO VELVA
AND SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MCCLUSKY. THE GFS40 850-700MB 1.5 PVU ATOP A
850MB FRONTOGENESIS AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DEVELOPED
A NARROW MESOSCALE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EARLIER THIS
MORNING. ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH CERTAINLY REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AS AN EARLIER REPORT OF A HALF INCH OCCURRED NEAR
HALLIDAY ON HIGHWAY 8. THE BAND WILL LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHERN
BORDER THROUGH 12Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH ISSUING NOWCASTS TO COVER
THIS FEATURE.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...REACHING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 18Z TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST BY 18Z. THE
LATEST RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF
OMEGA/LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER WITH RESPECT TO ICE
ACROSS KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
FROST POINT EXCEEDS THE TEMPERATURE...SOME SNOW PRODUCTION WILL
RESULT IN THE SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER EXPECT THOSE AMOUNTS TO REMAIN
LIGHT AS THE STRONGEST LIFT REMAINS WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT AREA. AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
OR TWO OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES CAN BE
ANTICIPATED UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. ALL ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRANSITORY MID LEVEL RIDGE
CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRY FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST. HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES DEPICT WARMING ALOFT AT TIMES THAT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
FREEZING MARK - BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING - WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE. CLOUDS
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ICE CRYSTALS FALLING
FROM MID CLOUDS AT TIMES AND NO MID CLOUDS AT TIMES. THIS SUGGESTS A
MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE WAVE. LOOKING AT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE
SUNDAY...THEN IT DEEPENS/STRENGTHENS AS IT REACHES MINNESOTA/IOWA ON
MONDAY...AND TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE MIXED WITH
RAIN OR SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE LARGE
TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(CHRISTMAS EVE) LOOK TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. HIGHS
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEAR TO BE FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS REMAIN THROUGHOUT NORTH DAKOTA.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WITH IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY MORNING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 181832
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1232 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SOME LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE MAINLY THROUGH SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITH SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AHEAD OF IT. SOME CLEARING
IS STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
BEHIND PROGRESSING UPPER LOW. HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST TO REFLECT
THESE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS UPPER LOW
PASSES THROUGH. A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES...WHILE OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN OBSERVED.
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING WITH A TRANSITION TO ALL PRECIPITATION BEING ALL SNOW
BY MID-DAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH NEAR
WILLISTON/NEWTOWN...MOVING EASTWARD. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS DEPICT
THE VORT/ARC OF THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDING IN A CURVE FROM
NEWTOWN/WILLISTON EAST TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD WAHPETON. AS THIS AREA OF SNOW CONTINUES NORTHWARD...THE
INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED FROM MODERATE/HEAVY IN PLACES TO LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...AND NO
OTHER STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THIS FEATURE. LOW CLOUDS WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY MINOR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS NEEDED ATTENTION THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
CENTERED/CIRCULATING NEAR WILLISTON THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE
SLIDING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...A VERY NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
PER LOCAL RADAR AND WEBCAMS EXTENDS FROM NEWTOWN...EAST INTO VELVA
AND SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MCCLUSKY. THE GFS40 850-700MB 1.5 PVU ATOP A
850MB FRONTOGENESIS AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DEVELOPED
A NARROW MESOSCALE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EARLIER THIS
MORNING. ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH CERTAINLY REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AS AN EARLIER REPORT OF A HALF INCH OCCURRED NEAR
HALLIDAY ON HIGHWAY 8. THE BAND WILL LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHERN
BORDER THROUGH 12Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH ISSUING NOWCASTS TO COVER
THIS FEATURE.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...REACHING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 18Z TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST BY 18Z. THE
LATEST RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF
OMEGA/LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER WITH RESPECT TO ICE
ACROSS KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
FROST POINT EXCEEDS THE TEMPERATURE...SOME SNOW PRODUCTION WILL
RESULT IN THE SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER EXPECT THOSE AMOUNTS TO REMAIN
LIGHT AS THE STRONGEST LIFT REMAINS WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT AREA. AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
OR TWO OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES CAN BE
ANTICIPATED UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. ALL ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRANSITORY MID LEVEL RIDGE
CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRY FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST. HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES DEPICT WARMING ALOFT AT TIMES THAT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
FREEZING MARK - BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING - WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE. CLOUDS
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ICE CRYSTALS FALLING
FROM MID CLOUDS AT TIMES AND NO MID CLOUDS AT TIMES. THIS SUGGESTS A
MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE WAVE. LOOKING AT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE
SUNDAY...THEN IT DEEPENS/STRENGTHENS AS IT REACHES MINNESOTA/IOWA ON
MONDAY...AND TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE MIXED WITH
RAIN OR SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE LARGE
TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(CHRISTMAS EVE) LOOK TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. HIGHS
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEAR TO BE FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS REMAIN THROUGHOUT NORTH DAKOTA.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WITH IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY MORNING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS









000
FXUS63 KFGF 181732
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1132 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY. AREA OF MID CLOUDS AND THEN
LOWER MVFR CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHEAST EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER WRN ND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO THIS AFTN.
ALSO GOT A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOWER STRATOCU MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWEST FROM WISCONSIN INTO NE-ECNTRL MN AND ITS HEADED TOWARD
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER THERE. ALSO QUITE A
BIT OF FLURRIES IN THIS CLOUD AREA...SO MATCHED UP WITH WFO DLH
AND INCLUDED FLURRIES THIS AFTN IN THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA. KEPT
FLURRIES IN FAR WEST BUT HAVENT SEEN ANY SIGNS OF PRECIP IN CNTRL
ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND IF WE GET
ANY SNOW OF MENTION OR JUST FLURRIES.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN ON WV LOOP ROTATING OVER THE
MT/ND BORDER...AND THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT INTO THE
REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTH
WINDS AND MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN
A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND...WHICH MATCHES PRETTY WELL
WHERE THE RAP HAS SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP HAS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...SO THINK A WELL
DEFINED BAND OF SNOW IS NOT TOO LIKELY. HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR
WEST WITH SOME FLURRIES GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER EVEN WITH CLOUDS AS
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES OUT WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THAT ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET WELL INTO THE 20S TO
NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT
THINK THAT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER NORTHERN MN...AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE INCREASING. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME SIGNS OF PRECIP
MOVING IN WITH THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIATION FROM THE NAM SHOWING UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE ECMWF HAVING HARDLY ANYTHING...SO KEPT
POPS LOW FOR NOW. THE SREF SHOWS SOME FZRA PROBABILITIES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TOP DOWN METHOD GIVES MOSTLY SNOW IN THE
NORTH WHERE POPS ARE LOCATED WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STAYING
MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTH WHERE CURRENTLY WE ARE GOING DRY. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING 30 DEGREES AND LOWS STAYING IN THE TEENS TO EVEN LOW 20S.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT BECOMING
MORE OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW WAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN...WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST...THE AREA WILL SEE LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS AND MODEL DATA...LOWER MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL BE INCREASING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HRS. THE NAM MOS DATA
SUPPORT CIGS BELOW 1000 FT...WITH NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SATURATED IN
THE LOW LEVES AS WELL. SOME CIGS MAY DIP BELOW 500 FT BY LATE
TOMORROW MORNING ACCORDING TO THE NAM MOS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED CIGS
THIS LOW YET...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MODEL DATA TO
SEE IF THE LIKELIHOOD INCREASES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 181732
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1132 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY. AREA OF MID CLOUDS AND THEN
LOWER MVFR CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHEAST EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER WRN ND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO THIS AFTN.
ALSO GOT A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOWER STRATOCU MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWEST FROM WISCONSIN INTO NE-ECNTRL MN AND ITS HEADED TOWARD
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER THERE. ALSO QUITE A
BIT OF FLURRIES IN THIS CLOUD AREA...SO MATCHED UP WITH WFO DLH
AND INCLUDED FLURRIES THIS AFTN IN THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA. KEPT
FLURRIES IN FAR WEST BUT HAVENT SEEN ANY SIGNS OF PRECIP IN CNTRL
ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND IF WE GET
ANY SNOW OF MENTION OR JUST FLURRIES.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN ON WV LOOP ROTATING OVER THE
MT/ND BORDER...AND THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT INTO THE
REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTH
WINDS AND MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN
A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND...WHICH MATCHES PRETTY WELL
WHERE THE RAP HAS SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP HAS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...SO THINK A WELL
DEFINED BAND OF SNOW IS NOT TOO LIKELY. HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR
WEST WITH SOME FLURRIES GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER EVEN WITH CLOUDS AS
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES OUT WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THAT ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET WELL INTO THE 20S TO
NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT
THINK THAT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER NORTHERN MN...AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE INCREASING. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME SIGNS OF PRECIP
MOVING IN WITH THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIATION FROM THE NAM SHOWING UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE ECMWF HAVING HARDLY ANYTHING...SO KEPT
POPS LOW FOR NOW. THE SREF SHOWS SOME FZRA PROBABILITIES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TOP DOWN METHOD GIVES MOSTLY SNOW IN THE
NORTH WHERE POPS ARE LOCATED WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STAYING
MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTH WHERE CURRENTLY WE ARE GOING DRY. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING 30 DEGREES AND LOWS STAYING IN THE TEENS TO EVEN LOW 20S.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT BECOMING
MORE OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW WAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN...WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST...THE AREA WILL SEE LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS AND MODEL DATA...LOWER MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL BE INCREASING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HRS. THE NAM MOS DATA
SUPPORT CIGS BELOW 1000 FT...WITH NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SATURATED IN
THE LOW LEVES AS WELL. SOME CIGS MAY DIP BELOW 500 FT BY LATE
TOMORROW MORNING ACCORDING TO THE NAM MOS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED CIGS
THIS LOW YET...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MODEL DATA TO
SEE IF THE LIKELIHOOD INCREASES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 181732
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1132 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY. AREA OF MID CLOUDS AND THEN
LOWER MVFR CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHEAST EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER WRN ND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO THIS AFTN.
ALSO GOT A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOWER STRATOCU MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWEST FROM WISCONSIN INTO NE-ECNTRL MN AND ITS HEADED TOWARD
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER THERE. ALSO QUITE A
BIT OF FLURRIES IN THIS CLOUD AREA...SO MATCHED UP WITH WFO DLH
AND INCLUDED FLURRIES THIS AFTN IN THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA. KEPT
FLURRIES IN FAR WEST BUT HAVENT SEEN ANY SIGNS OF PRECIP IN CNTRL
ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND IF WE GET
ANY SNOW OF MENTION OR JUST FLURRIES.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN ON WV LOOP ROTATING OVER THE
MT/ND BORDER...AND THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT INTO THE
REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTH
WINDS AND MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN
A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND...WHICH MATCHES PRETTY WELL
WHERE THE RAP HAS SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP HAS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...SO THINK A WELL
DEFINED BAND OF SNOW IS NOT TOO LIKELY. HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR
WEST WITH SOME FLURRIES GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER EVEN WITH CLOUDS AS
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES OUT WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THAT ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET WELL INTO THE 20S TO
NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT
THINK THAT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER NORTHERN MN...AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE INCREASING. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME SIGNS OF PRECIP
MOVING IN WITH THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIATION FROM THE NAM SHOWING UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE ECMWF HAVING HARDLY ANYTHING...SO KEPT
POPS LOW FOR NOW. THE SREF SHOWS SOME FZRA PROBABILITIES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TOP DOWN METHOD GIVES MOSTLY SNOW IN THE
NORTH WHERE POPS ARE LOCATED WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STAYING
MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTH WHERE CURRENTLY WE ARE GOING DRY. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING 30 DEGREES AND LOWS STAYING IN THE TEENS TO EVEN LOW 20S.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT BECOMING
MORE OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW WAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN...WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST...THE AREA WILL SEE LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS AND MODEL DATA...LOWER MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL BE INCREASING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HRS. THE NAM MOS DATA
SUPPORT CIGS BELOW 1000 FT...WITH NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SATURATED IN
THE LOW LEVES AS WELL. SOME CIGS MAY DIP BELOW 500 FT BY LATE
TOMORROW MORNING ACCORDING TO THE NAM MOS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED CIGS
THIS LOW YET...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MODEL DATA TO
SEE IF THE LIKELIHOOD INCREASES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 181732
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1132 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY. AREA OF MID CLOUDS AND THEN
LOWER MVFR CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHEAST EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER WRN ND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO THIS AFTN.
ALSO GOT A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOWER STRATOCU MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWEST FROM WISCONSIN INTO NE-ECNTRL MN AND ITS HEADED TOWARD
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER THERE. ALSO QUITE A
BIT OF FLURRIES IN THIS CLOUD AREA...SO MATCHED UP WITH WFO DLH
AND INCLUDED FLURRIES THIS AFTN IN THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA. KEPT
FLURRIES IN FAR WEST BUT HAVENT SEEN ANY SIGNS OF PRECIP IN CNTRL
ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND IF WE GET
ANY SNOW OF MENTION OR JUST FLURRIES.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN ON WV LOOP ROTATING OVER THE
MT/ND BORDER...AND THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT INTO THE
REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTH
WINDS AND MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN
A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND...WHICH MATCHES PRETTY WELL
WHERE THE RAP HAS SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP HAS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...SO THINK A WELL
DEFINED BAND OF SNOW IS NOT TOO LIKELY. HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR
WEST WITH SOME FLURRIES GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER EVEN WITH CLOUDS AS
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES OUT WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THAT ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET WELL INTO THE 20S TO
NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT
THINK THAT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER NORTHERN MN...AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE INCREASING. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME SIGNS OF PRECIP
MOVING IN WITH THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIATION FROM THE NAM SHOWING UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE ECMWF HAVING HARDLY ANYTHING...SO KEPT
POPS LOW FOR NOW. THE SREF SHOWS SOME FZRA PROBABILITIES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TOP DOWN METHOD GIVES MOSTLY SNOW IN THE
NORTH WHERE POPS ARE LOCATED WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STAYING
MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTH WHERE CURRENTLY WE ARE GOING DRY. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING 30 DEGREES AND LOWS STAYING IN THE TEENS TO EVEN LOW 20S.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT BECOMING
MORE OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW WAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN...WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST...THE AREA WILL SEE LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS AND MODEL DATA...LOWER MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL BE INCREASING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HRS. THE NAM MOS DATA
SUPPORT CIGS BELOW 1000 FT...WITH NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SATURATED IN
THE LOW LEVES AS WELL. SOME CIGS MAY DIP BELOW 500 FT BY LATE
TOMORROW MORNING ACCORDING TO THE NAM MOS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED CIGS
THIS LOW YET...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MODEL DATA TO
SEE IF THE LIKELIHOOD INCREASES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 181601
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1001 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY. AREA OF MID CLOUDS AND THEN
LOWER MVFR CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHEAST EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER WRN ND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO THIS AFTN.
ALSO GOT A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOWER STRATOCU MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWEST FROM WISCONSIN INTO NE-ECNTRL MN AND ITS HEADED TOWARD
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER THERE. ALSO QUITE A
BIT OF FLURRIES IN THIS CLOUD AREA...SO MATCHED UP WITH WFO DLH
AND INCLUDED FLURRIES THIS AFTN IN THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA. KEPT
FLURRIES IN FAR WEST BUT HAVENT SEEN ANY SIGNS OF PRECIP IN CNTRL
ND.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND IF WE GET
ANY SNOW OF MENTION OR JUST FLURRIES.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN ON WV LOOP ROTATING OVER THE
MT/ND BORDER...AND THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT INTO THE
REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTH
WINDS AND MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN
A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND...WHICH MATCHES PRETTY WELL
WHERE THE RAP HAS SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP HAS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...SO THINK A WELL
DEFINED BAND OF SNOW IS NOT TOO LIKELY. HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR
WEST WITH SOME FLURRIES GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER EVEN WITH CLOUDS AS
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES OUT WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THAT ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET WELL INTO THE 20S TO
NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT
THINK THAT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER NORTHERN MN...AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE INCREASING. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME SIGNS OF PRECIP
MOVING IN WITH THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIATION FROM THE NAM SHOWING UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE ECMWF HAVING HARDLY ANYTHING...SO KEPT
POPS LOW FOR NOW. THE SREF SHOWS SOME FZRA PROBABILITIES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TOP DOWN METHOD GIVES MOSTLY SNOW IN THE
NORTH WHERE POPS ARE LOCATED WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STAYING
MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTH WHERE CURRENTLY WE ARE GOING DRY. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING 30 DEGREES AND LOWS STAYING IN THE TEENS TO EVEN LOW 20S.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT BECOMING
MORE OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW WAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN...WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ALL SITES ARE VFR FOR THE TIME BEING BUT CLOUDS ARE MAKING A RUN
FOR THE FORECAST AREA BOTH FROM THE WEST AND FROM THE EAST. CLOUDS
ENTERING THE KDVL AREA ARE MID LEVEL...SO VFR WILL REMAIN FOR A
BIT LONGER. THINK THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THEN SOME MVFR CIGS MOVING IN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE STRATUS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH EASTERN MN...WHICH MAY IMPACT KBJI
LATER ON. BASED ON THE SPEED OF THE CLOUD DECK SOME MVFR CIGS
COULD ENTER KBJI AS SOON AS EARLY AFTERNOON. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD
BE MVFR OR EVEN IFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD OR EXPECTED TO BRING VIS DOWN FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL STEADY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT UNDER 10 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 181601
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1001 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY. AREA OF MID CLOUDS AND THEN
LOWER MVFR CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHEAST EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER WRN ND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO THIS AFTN.
ALSO GOT A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOWER STRATOCU MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWEST FROM WISCONSIN INTO NE-ECNTRL MN AND ITS HEADED TOWARD
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER THERE. ALSO QUITE A
BIT OF FLURRIES IN THIS CLOUD AREA...SO MATCHED UP WITH WFO DLH
AND INCLUDED FLURRIES THIS AFTN IN THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA. KEPT
FLURRIES IN FAR WEST BUT HAVENT SEEN ANY SIGNS OF PRECIP IN CNTRL
ND.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND IF WE GET
ANY SNOW OF MENTION OR JUST FLURRIES.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN ON WV LOOP ROTATING OVER THE
MT/ND BORDER...AND THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT INTO THE
REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTH
WINDS AND MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN
A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND...WHICH MATCHES PRETTY WELL
WHERE THE RAP HAS SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP HAS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...SO THINK A WELL
DEFINED BAND OF SNOW IS NOT TOO LIKELY. HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR
WEST WITH SOME FLURRIES GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER EVEN WITH CLOUDS AS
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES OUT WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THAT ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET WELL INTO THE 20S TO
NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT
THINK THAT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER NORTHERN MN...AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE INCREASING. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME SIGNS OF PRECIP
MOVING IN WITH THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIATION FROM THE NAM SHOWING UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE ECMWF HAVING HARDLY ANYTHING...SO KEPT
POPS LOW FOR NOW. THE SREF SHOWS SOME FZRA PROBABILITIES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TOP DOWN METHOD GIVES MOSTLY SNOW IN THE
NORTH WHERE POPS ARE LOCATED WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STAYING
MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTH WHERE CURRENTLY WE ARE GOING DRY. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING 30 DEGREES AND LOWS STAYING IN THE TEENS TO EVEN LOW 20S.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT BECOMING
MORE OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW WAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN...WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ALL SITES ARE VFR FOR THE TIME BEING BUT CLOUDS ARE MAKING A RUN
FOR THE FORECAST AREA BOTH FROM THE WEST AND FROM THE EAST. CLOUDS
ENTERING THE KDVL AREA ARE MID LEVEL...SO VFR WILL REMAIN FOR A
BIT LONGER. THINK THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THEN SOME MVFR CIGS MOVING IN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE STRATUS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH EASTERN MN...WHICH MAY IMPACT KBJI
LATER ON. BASED ON THE SPEED OF THE CLOUD DECK SOME MVFR CIGS
COULD ENTER KBJI AS SOON AS EARLY AFTERNOON. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD
BE MVFR OR EVEN IFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD OR EXPECTED TO BRING VIS DOWN FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL STEADY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT UNDER 10 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KBIS 181549
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS UPPER LOW
PASSES THROUGH. A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES...WHILE OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN OBSERVED.
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING WITH A TRANSITION TO ALL PRECIPITATION BEING ALL SNOW
BY MID-DAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH NEAR
WILLISTON/NEWTOWN...MOVING EASTWARD. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS DEPICT
THE VORT/ARC OF THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDING IN A CURVE FROM
NEWTOWN/WILLISTON EAST TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD WAHPETON. AS THIS AREA OF SNOW CONTINUES NORTHWARD...THE
INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED FROM MODERATE/HEAVY IN PLACES TO LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...AND NO
OTHER STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THIS FEATURE. LOW CLOUDS WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY MINOR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS NEEDED ATTENTION THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
CENTERED/CIRCULATING NEAR WILLISTON THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE
SLIDING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...A VERY NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
PER LOCAL RADAR AND WEBCAMS EXTENDS FROM NEWTOWN...EAST INTO VELVA
AND SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MCCLUSKY. THE GFS40 850-700MB 1.5 PVU ATOP A
850MB FRONTOGENESIS AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DEVELOPED
A NARROW MESOSCALE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EARLIER THIS
MORNING. ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH CERTAINLY REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AS AN EARLIER REPORT OF A HALF INCH OCCURRED NEAR
HALLIDAY ON HIGHWAY 8. THE BAND WILL LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHERN
BORDER THROUGH 12Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH ISSUING NOWCASTS TO COVER
THIS FEATURE.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...REACHING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 18Z TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST BY 18Z. THE
LATEST RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF
OMEGA/LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER WITH RESPECT TO ICE
ACROSS KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
FROST POINT EXCEEDS THE TEMPERATURE...SOME SNOW PRODUCTION WILL
RESULT IN THE SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER EXPECT THOSE AMOUNTS TO REMAIN
LIGHT AS THE STRONGEST LIFT REMAINS WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT AREA. AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
OR TWO OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES CAN BE
ANTICIPATED UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. ALL ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRANSITORY MID LEVEL RIDGE
CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRY FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST. HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES DEPICT WARMING ALOFT AT TIMES THAT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
FREEZING MARK - BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING - WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE. CLOUDS
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ICE CRYSTALS FALLING
FROM MID CLOUDS AT TIMES AND NO MID CLOUDS AT TIMES. THIS SUGGESTS A
MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE WAVE. LOOKING AT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE
SUNDAY...THEN IT DEEPENS/STRENGTHENS AS IT REACHES MINNESOTA/IOWA ON
MONDAY...AND TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE MIXED WITH
RAIN OR SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE LARGE
TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(CHRISTMAS EVE) LOOK TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. HIGHS
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEAR TO BE FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TODAY AS IT
SLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS
IN FOG AT KDIK BEFORE CIGS LIFT TO IFR CIGS BY 15Z. IFR CIGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KISN/KBIS THROUGH 18Z-20Z BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT KMOT WITH KJMS DETERIORATING FROM VFR TO MVFR BY 16Z
TODAY. ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 181549
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS UPPER LOW
PASSES THROUGH. A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES...WHILE OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN OBSERVED.
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING WITH A TRANSITION TO ALL PRECIPITATION BEING ALL SNOW
BY MID-DAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH NEAR
WILLISTON/NEWTOWN...MOVING EASTWARD. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS DEPICT
THE VORT/ARC OF THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDING IN A CURVE FROM
NEWTOWN/WILLISTON EAST TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD WAHPETON. AS THIS AREA OF SNOW CONTINUES NORTHWARD...THE
INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED FROM MODERATE/HEAVY IN PLACES TO LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...AND NO
OTHER STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THIS FEATURE. LOW CLOUDS WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY MINOR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS NEEDED ATTENTION THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
CENTERED/CIRCULATING NEAR WILLISTON THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE
SLIDING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...A VERY NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
PER LOCAL RADAR AND WEBCAMS EXTENDS FROM NEWTOWN...EAST INTO VELVA
AND SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MCCLUSKY. THE GFS40 850-700MB 1.5 PVU ATOP A
850MB FRONTOGENESIS AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DEVELOPED
A NARROW MESOSCALE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EARLIER THIS
MORNING. ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH CERTAINLY REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AS AN EARLIER REPORT OF A HALF INCH OCCURRED NEAR
HALLIDAY ON HIGHWAY 8. THE BAND WILL LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHERN
BORDER THROUGH 12Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH ISSUING NOWCASTS TO COVER
THIS FEATURE.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...REACHING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 18Z TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST BY 18Z. THE
LATEST RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF
OMEGA/LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER WITH RESPECT TO ICE
ACROSS KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
FROST POINT EXCEEDS THE TEMPERATURE...SOME SNOW PRODUCTION WILL
RESULT IN THE SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER EXPECT THOSE AMOUNTS TO REMAIN
LIGHT AS THE STRONGEST LIFT REMAINS WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT AREA. AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
OR TWO OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES CAN BE
ANTICIPATED UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. ALL ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRANSITORY MID LEVEL RIDGE
CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRY FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST. HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES DEPICT WARMING ALOFT AT TIMES THAT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
FREEZING MARK - BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING - WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE. CLOUDS
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ICE CRYSTALS FALLING
FROM MID CLOUDS AT TIMES AND NO MID CLOUDS AT TIMES. THIS SUGGESTS A
MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE WAVE. LOOKING AT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE
SUNDAY...THEN IT DEEPENS/STRENGTHENS AS IT REACHES MINNESOTA/IOWA ON
MONDAY...AND TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE MIXED WITH
RAIN OR SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE LARGE
TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(CHRISTMAS EVE) LOOK TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. HIGHS
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEAR TO BE FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TODAY AS IT
SLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS
IN FOG AT KDIK BEFORE CIGS LIFT TO IFR CIGS BY 15Z. IFR CIGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KISN/KBIS THROUGH 18Z-20Z BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT KMOT WITH KJMS DETERIORATING FROM VFR TO MVFR BY 16Z
TODAY. ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 181258
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
658 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ADJUSTED CLOUDS A BIT AS THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT FASTER CLOUDING
UP OF THE WESTERN CWA. A BAND OF RADAR RETURNS HAS ENTERED THE
WESTERN CWA BUT NOT MUCH AT THIS POINT HAS BEEN SEEN REACHING THE
GROUND. INCLUDED JUST A FLURRY MENTION BUT THINK THAT ACCUMULATING
SNOW CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND IF WE GET
ANY SNOW OF MENTION OR JUST FLURRIES.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN ON WV LOOP ROTATING OVER THE
MT/ND BORDER...AND THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT INTO THE
REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTH
WINDS AND MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN
A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND...WHICH MATCHES PRETTY WELL
WHERE THE RAP HAS SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP HAS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...SO THINK A WELL
DEFINED BAND OF SNOW IS NOT TOO LIKELY. HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR
WEST WITH SOME FLURRIES GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER EVEN WITH CLOUDS AS
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES OUT WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THAT ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET WELL INTO THE 20S TO
NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT
THINK THAT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER NORTHERN MN...AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE INCREASING. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME SIGNS OF PRECIP
MOVING IN WITH THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIATION FROM THE NAM SHOWING UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE ECMWF HAVING HARDLY ANYTHING...SO KEPT
POPS LOW FOR NOW. THE SREF SHOWS SOME FZRA PROBABILITIES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TOP DOWN METHOD GIVES MOSTLY SNOW IN THE
NORTH WHERE POPS ARE LOCATED WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STAYING
MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTH WHERE CURRENTLY WE ARE GOING DRY. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING 30 DEGREES AND LOWS STAYING IN THE TEENS TO EVEN LOW 20S.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT BECOMING
MORE OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW WAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN...WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ALL SITES ARE VFR FOR THE TIME BEING BUT CLOUDS ARE MAKING A RUN
FOR THE FORECAST AREA BOTH FROM THE WEST AND FROM THE EAST. CLOUDS
ENTERING THE KDVL AREA ARE MID LEVEL...SO VFR WILL REMAIN FOR A
BIT LONGER. THINK THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THEN SOME MVFR CIGS MOVING IN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE STRATUS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH EASTERN MN...WHICH MAY IMPACT KBJI
LATER ON. BASED ON THE SPEED OF THE CLOUD DECK SOME MVFR CIGS
COULD ENTER KBJI AS SOON AS EARLY AFTERNOON. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD
BE MVFR OR EVEN IFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD OR EXPECTED TO BRING VIS DOWN FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL STEADY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 181258
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
658 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ADJUSTED CLOUDS A BIT AS THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT FASTER CLOUDING
UP OF THE WESTERN CWA. A BAND OF RADAR RETURNS HAS ENTERED THE
WESTERN CWA BUT NOT MUCH AT THIS POINT HAS BEEN SEEN REACHING THE
GROUND. INCLUDED JUST A FLURRY MENTION BUT THINK THAT ACCUMULATING
SNOW CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND IF WE GET
ANY SNOW OF MENTION OR JUST FLURRIES.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN ON WV LOOP ROTATING OVER THE
MT/ND BORDER...AND THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT INTO THE
REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTH
WINDS AND MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN
A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND...WHICH MATCHES PRETTY WELL
WHERE THE RAP HAS SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP HAS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...SO THINK A WELL
DEFINED BAND OF SNOW IS NOT TOO LIKELY. HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR
WEST WITH SOME FLURRIES GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER EVEN WITH CLOUDS AS
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES OUT WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THAT ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET WELL INTO THE 20S TO
NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT
THINK THAT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER NORTHERN MN...AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE INCREASING. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME SIGNS OF PRECIP
MOVING IN WITH THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIATION FROM THE NAM SHOWING UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE ECMWF HAVING HARDLY ANYTHING...SO KEPT
POPS LOW FOR NOW. THE SREF SHOWS SOME FZRA PROBABILITIES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TOP DOWN METHOD GIVES MOSTLY SNOW IN THE
NORTH WHERE POPS ARE LOCATED WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STAYING
MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTH WHERE CURRENTLY WE ARE GOING DRY. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING 30 DEGREES AND LOWS STAYING IN THE TEENS TO EVEN LOW 20S.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT BECOMING
MORE OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW WAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN...WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ALL SITES ARE VFR FOR THE TIME BEING BUT CLOUDS ARE MAKING A RUN
FOR THE FORECAST AREA BOTH FROM THE WEST AND FROM THE EAST. CLOUDS
ENTERING THE KDVL AREA ARE MID LEVEL...SO VFR WILL REMAIN FOR A
BIT LONGER. THINK THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THEN SOME MVFR CIGS MOVING IN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE STRATUS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH EASTERN MN...WHICH MAY IMPACT KBJI
LATER ON. BASED ON THE SPEED OF THE CLOUD DECK SOME MVFR CIGS
COULD ENTER KBJI AS SOON AS EARLY AFTERNOON. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD
BE MVFR OR EVEN IFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD OR EXPECTED TO BRING VIS DOWN FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL STEADY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 181258
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
658 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ADJUSTED CLOUDS A BIT AS THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT FASTER CLOUDING
UP OF THE WESTERN CWA. A BAND OF RADAR RETURNS HAS ENTERED THE
WESTERN CWA BUT NOT MUCH AT THIS POINT HAS BEEN SEEN REACHING THE
GROUND. INCLUDED JUST A FLURRY MENTION BUT THINK THAT ACCUMULATING
SNOW CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND IF WE GET
ANY SNOW OF MENTION OR JUST FLURRIES.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN ON WV LOOP ROTATING OVER THE
MT/ND BORDER...AND THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT INTO THE
REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTH
WINDS AND MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN
A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND...WHICH MATCHES PRETTY WELL
WHERE THE RAP HAS SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP HAS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...SO THINK A WELL
DEFINED BAND OF SNOW IS NOT TOO LIKELY. HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR
WEST WITH SOME FLURRIES GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER EVEN WITH CLOUDS AS
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES OUT WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THAT ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET WELL INTO THE 20S TO
NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT
THINK THAT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER NORTHERN MN...AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE INCREASING. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME SIGNS OF PRECIP
MOVING IN WITH THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIATION FROM THE NAM SHOWING UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE ECMWF HAVING HARDLY ANYTHING...SO KEPT
POPS LOW FOR NOW. THE SREF SHOWS SOME FZRA PROBABILITIES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TOP DOWN METHOD GIVES MOSTLY SNOW IN THE
NORTH WHERE POPS ARE LOCATED WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STAYING
MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTH WHERE CURRENTLY WE ARE GOING DRY. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING 30 DEGREES AND LOWS STAYING IN THE TEENS TO EVEN LOW 20S.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT BECOMING
MORE OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW WAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN...WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ALL SITES ARE VFR FOR THE TIME BEING BUT CLOUDS ARE MAKING A RUN
FOR THE FORECAST AREA BOTH FROM THE WEST AND FROM THE EAST. CLOUDS
ENTERING THE KDVL AREA ARE MID LEVEL...SO VFR WILL REMAIN FOR A
BIT LONGER. THINK THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THEN SOME MVFR CIGS MOVING IN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE STRATUS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH EASTERN MN...WHICH MAY IMPACT KBJI
LATER ON. BASED ON THE SPEED OF THE CLOUD DECK SOME MVFR CIGS
COULD ENTER KBJI AS SOON AS EARLY AFTERNOON. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD
BE MVFR OR EVEN IFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD OR EXPECTED TO BRING VIS DOWN FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL STEADY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KBIS 181236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH NEAR
WILLISTON/NEWTOWN...MOVING EASTWARD. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS DEPICT
THE VORT/ARC OF THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDING IN A CURVE FROM
NEWTOWN/WILLISTON EAST TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD WAHPETON. AS THIS AREA OF SNOW CONTINUES NORTHWARD...THE
INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED FROM MODERATE/HEAVY IN PLACES TO LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...AND NO
OTHER STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THIS FEATURE. LOW CLOUDS WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY MINOR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS NEEDED ATTENTION THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
CENTERED/CIRCULATING NEAR WILLISTON THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE
SLIDING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...A VERY NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
PER LOCAL RADAR AND WEBCAMS EXTENDS FROM NEWTOWN...EAST INTO VELVA
AND SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MCCLUSKY. THE GFS40 850-700MB 1.5 PVU ATOP A
850MB FRONTOGENESIS AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DEVELOPED
A NARROW MESOSCALE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EARLIER THIS
MORNING. ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH CERTAINLY REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AS AN EARLIER REPORT OF A HALF INCH OCCURRED NEAR
HALLIDAY ON HIGHWAY 8. THE BAND WILL LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHERN
BORDER THROUGH 12Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH ISSUING NOWCASTS TO COVER
THIS FEATURE.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...REACHING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 18Z TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST BY 18Z. THE
LATEST RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF
OMEGA/LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER WITH RESPECT TO ICE
ACROSS KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
FROST POINT EXCEEDS THE TEMPERATURE...SOME SNOW PRODUCTION WILL
RESULT IN THE SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER EXPECT THOSE AMOUNTS TO REMAIN
LIGHT AS THE STRONGEST LIFT REMAINS WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT AREA. AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
OR TWO OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES CAN BE
ANTICIPATED UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. ALL ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRANSITORY MID LEVEL RIDGE
CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRY FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST. HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES DEPICT WARMING ALOFT AT TIMES THAT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
FREEZING MARK - BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING - WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE. CLOUDS
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ICE CRYSTALS FALLING
FROM MID CLOUDS AT TIMES AND NO MID CLOUDS AT TIMES. THIS SUGGESTS A
MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE WAVE. LOOKING AT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE
SUNDAY...THEN IT DEEPENS/STRENGTHENS AS IT REACHES MINNESOTA/IOWA ON
MONDAY...AND TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE MIXED WITH
RAIN OR SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE LARGE
TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(CHRISTMAS EVE) LOOK TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. HIGHS
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEAR TO BE FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TODAY AS IT
SLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS
IN FOG AT KDIK BEFORE CIGS LIFT TO IFR CIGS BY 15Z. IFR CIGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KISN/KBIS THROUGH 18Z-20Z BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT KMOT WITH KJMS DETERIORATING FROM VFR TO MVFR BY 16Z
TODAY. ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 181236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH NEAR
WILLISTON/NEWTOWN...MOVING EASTWARD. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS DEPICT
THE VORT/ARC OF THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDING IN A CURVE FROM
NEWTOWN/WILLISTON EAST TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD WAHPETON. AS THIS AREA OF SNOW CONTINUES NORTHWARD...THE
INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED FROM MODERATE/HEAVY IN PLACES TO LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...AND NO
OTHER STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THIS FEATURE. LOW CLOUDS WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY MINOR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS NEEDED ATTENTION THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
CENTERED/CIRCULATING NEAR WILLISTON THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE
SLIDING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...A VERY NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
PER LOCAL RADAR AND WEBCAMS EXTENDS FROM NEWTOWN...EAST INTO VELVA
AND SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MCCLUSKY. THE GFS40 850-700MB 1.5 PVU ATOP A
850MB FRONTOGENESIS AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DEVELOPED
A NARROW MESOSCALE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EARLIER THIS
MORNING. ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH CERTAINLY REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AS AN EARLIER REPORT OF A HALF INCH OCCURRED NEAR
HALLIDAY ON HIGHWAY 8. THE BAND WILL LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHERN
BORDER THROUGH 12Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH ISSUING NOWCASTS TO COVER
THIS FEATURE.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...REACHING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 18Z TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST BY 18Z. THE
LATEST RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF
OMEGA/LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER WITH RESPECT TO ICE
ACROSS KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
FROST POINT EXCEEDS THE TEMPERATURE...SOME SNOW PRODUCTION WILL
RESULT IN THE SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER EXPECT THOSE AMOUNTS TO REMAIN
LIGHT AS THE STRONGEST LIFT REMAINS WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT AREA. AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
OR TWO OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES CAN BE
ANTICIPATED UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. ALL ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRANSITORY MID LEVEL RIDGE
CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRY FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST. HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES DEPICT WARMING ALOFT AT TIMES THAT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
FREEZING MARK - BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING - WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE. CLOUDS
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ICE CRYSTALS FALLING
FROM MID CLOUDS AT TIMES AND NO MID CLOUDS AT TIMES. THIS SUGGESTS A
MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE WAVE. LOOKING AT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE
SUNDAY...THEN IT DEEPENS/STRENGTHENS AS IT REACHES MINNESOTA/IOWA ON
MONDAY...AND TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE MIXED WITH
RAIN OR SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE LARGE
TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(CHRISTMAS EVE) LOOK TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. HIGHS
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEAR TO BE FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TODAY AS IT
SLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS
IN FOG AT KDIK BEFORE CIGS LIFT TO IFR CIGS BY 15Z. IFR CIGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KISN/KBIS THROUGH 18Z-20Z BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT KMOT WITH KJMS DETERIORATING FROM VFR TO MVFR BY 16Z
TODAY. ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 181236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH NEAR
WILLISTON/NEWTOWN...MOVING EASTWARD. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS DEPICT
THE VORT/ARC OF THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDING IN A CURVE FROM
NEWTOWN/WILLISTON EAST TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD WAHPETON. AS THIS AREA OF SNOW CONTINUES NORTHWARD...THE
INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED FROM MODERATE/HEAVY IN PLACES TO LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...AND NO
OTHER STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THIS FEATURE. LOW CLOUDS WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY MINOR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS NEEDED ATTENTION THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
CENTERED/CIRCULATING NEAR WILLISTON THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE
SLIDING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...A VERY NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
PER LOCAL RADAR AND WEBCAMS EXTENDS FROM NEWTOWN...EAST INTO VELVA
AND SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MCCLUSKY. THE GFS40 850-700MB 1.5 PVU ATOP A
850MB FRONTOGENESIS AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DEVELOPED
A NARROW MESOSCALE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EARLIER THIS
MORNING. ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH CERTAINLY REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AS AN EARLIER REPORT OF A HALF INCH OCCURRED NEAR
HALLIDAY ON HIGHWAY 8. THE BAND WILL LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHERN
BORDER THROUGH 12Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH ISSUING NOWCASTS TO COVER
THIS FEATURE.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...REACHING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 18Z TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST BY 18Z. THE
LATEST RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF
OMEGA/LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER WITH RESPECT TO ICE
ACROSS KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
FROST POINT EXCEEDS THE TEMPERATURE...SOME SNOW PRODUCTION WILL
RESULT IN THE SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER EXPECT THOSE AMOUNTS TO REMAIN
LIGHT AS THE STRONGEST LIFT REMAINS WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT AREA. AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
OR TWO OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES CAN BE
ANTICIPATED UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. ALL ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRANSITORY MID LEVEL RIDGE
CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRY FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST. HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES DEPICT WARMING ALOFT AT TIMES THAT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
FREEZING MARK - BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING - WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE. CLOUDS
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ICE CRYSTALS FALLING
FROM MID CLOUDS AT TIMES AND NO MID CLOUDS AT TIMES. THIS SUGGESTS A
MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE WAVE. LOOKING AT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE
SUNDAY...THEN IT DEEPENS/STRENGTHENS AS IT REACHES MINNESOTA/IOWA ON
MONDAY...AND TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE MIXED WITH
RAIN OR SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE LARGE
TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(CHRISTMAS EVE) LOOK TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. HIGHS
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEAR TO BE FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TODAY AS IT
SLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS
IN FOG AT KDIK BEFORE CIGS LIFT TO IFR CIGS BY 15Z. IFR CIGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KISN/KBIS THROUGH 18Z-20Z BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT KMOT WITH KJMS DETERIORATING FROM VFR TO MVFR BY 16Z
TODAY. ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 181013
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
CENTERED/CIRCULATING NEAR WILLISTON THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE
SLIDING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...A VERY NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
PER LOCAL RADAR AND WEBCAMS EXTENDS FROM NEWTOWN...EAST INTO VELVA
AND SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MCCLUSKY. THE GFS40 850-700MB 1.5 PVU ATOP A
850MB FRONTOGENESIS AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DEVELOPED
A NARROW MESOSCALE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EARLIER THIS
MORNING. ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH CERTAINLY REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AS AN EARLIER REPORT OF A HALF INCH OCCURRED NEAR
HALLIDAY ON HIGHWAY 8. THE BAND WILL LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHERN
BORDER THROUGH 12Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH ISSUING NOWCASTS TO COVER
THIS FEATURE.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...REACHING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 18Z TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST BY 18Z. THE
LATEST RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF
OMEGA/LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER WITH RESPECT TO ICE
ACROSS KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
FROST POINT EXCEEDS THE TEMPERATURE...SOME SNOW PRODUCTION WILL
RESULT IN THE SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER EXPECT THOSE AMOUNTS TO REMAIN
LIGHT AS THE STRONGEST LIFT REMAINS WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT AREA. AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
OR TWO OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES CAN BE
ANTICIPATED UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. ALL ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRANSITORY MID LEVEL RIDGE
CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRY FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST. HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES DEPICT WARMING ALOFT AT TIMES THAT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
FREEZING MARK - BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING - WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE. CLOUDS
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ICE CRYSTALS FALLING
FROM MID CLOUDS AT TIMES AND NO MID CLOUDS AT TIMES. THIS SUGGESTS A
MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE WAVE. LOOKING AT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE
SUNDAY...THEN IT DEEPENS/STRENGTHENS AS IT REACHES MINNESOTA/IOWA ON
MONDAY...AND TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE MIXED WITH
RAIN OR SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE LARGE
TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(CHRISTMAS EVE) LOOK TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. HIGHS
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEAR TO BE FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR STRATUS CONTINUES AT KDIK WITH MVFR STRATUS AT KISN AND KBIS.
VFR CIGS AT KMOT WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS BY 12Z AND EVENTUALLY AT
KJMS BY 15Z TODAY. THE LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT ALL
AERODROMES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME LIFTING AT
KDIK LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AT
KDIK THROUGH 06 UTC. EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
TERMINALS TODAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS/TWH









000
FXUS63 KFGF 180914
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND IF WE GET
ANY SNOW OF MENTION OR JUST FLURRIES.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN ON WV LOOP ROTATING OVER THE
MT/ND BORDER...AND THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT INTO THE
REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTH
WINDS AND MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN
A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND...WHICH MATCHES PRETTY WELL
WHERE THE RAP HAS SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP HAS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...SO THINK A WELL
DEFINED BAND OF SNOW IS NOT TOO LIKELY. HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR
WEST WITH SOME FLURRIES GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER EVEN WITH CLOUDS AS
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES OUT WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THAT ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET WELL INTO THE 20S TO
NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT
THINK THAT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER NORTHERN MN...AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE INCREASING. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME SIGNS OF PRECIP
MOVING IN WITH THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIATION FROM THE NAM SHOWING UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE ECMWF HAVING HARDLY ANYTHING...SO KEPT
POPS LOW FOR NOW. THE SREF SHOWS SOME FZRA PROBABILITIES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TOP DOWN METHOD GIVES MOSTLY SNOW IN THE
NORTH WHERE POPS ARE LOCATED WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STAYING
MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTH WHERE CURRENTLY WE ARE GOING DRY. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING 30 DEGREES AND LOWS STAYING IN THE TEENS TO EVEN LOW 20S.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT BECOMING
MORE OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW WAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN...WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST...BUT
WILL TAKE THEIR TIME GETTING HERE. THE MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO KDVL BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...VALLEY SITES CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN AOB 10
KNOTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 180914
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND IF WE GET
ANY SNOW OF MENTION OR JUST FLURRIES.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN ON WV LOOP ROTATING OVER THE
MT/ND BORDER...AND THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT INTO THE
REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTH
WINDS AND MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN
A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND...WHICH MATCHES PRETTY WELL
WHERE THE RAP HAS SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP HAS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...SO THINK A WELL
DEFINED BAND OF SNOW IS NOT TOO LIKELY. HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR
WEST WITH SOME FLURRIES GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER EVEN WITH CLOUDS AS
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES OUT WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THAT ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET WELL INTO THE 20S TO
NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT
THINK THAT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER NORTHERN MN...AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE INCREASING. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME SIGNS OF PRECIP
MOVING IN WITH THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIATION FROM THE NAM SHOWING UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE ECMWF HAVING HARDLY ANYTHING...SO KEPT
POPS LOW FOR NOW. THE SREF SHOWS SOME FZRA PROBABILITIES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TOP DOWN METHOD GIVES MOSTLY SNOW IN THE
NORTH WHERE POPS ARE LOCATED WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STAYING
MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTH WHERE CURRENTLY WE ARE GOING DRY. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING 30 DEGREES AND LOWS STAYING IN THE TEENS TO EVEN LOW 20S.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT BECOMING
MORE OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW WAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN...WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST...BUT
WILL TAKE THEIR TIME GETTING HERE. THE MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO KDVL BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...VALLEY SITES CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN AOB 10
KNOTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 180914
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND IF WE GET
ANY SNOW OF MENTION OR JUST FLURRIES.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN ON WV LOOP ROTATING OVER THE
MT/ND BORDER...AND THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT INTO THE
REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTH
WINDS AND MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN
A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND...WHICH MATCHES PRETTY WELL
WHERE THE RAP HAS SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP HAS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...SO THINK A WELL
DEFINED BAND OF SNOW IS NOT TOO LIKELY. HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR
WEST WITH SOME FLURRIES GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER EVEN WITH CLOUDS AS
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES OUT WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THAT ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET WELL INTO THE 20S TO
NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT
THINK THAT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER NORTHERN MN...AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE INCREASING. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME SIGNS OF PRECIP
MOVING IN WITH THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIATION FROM THE NAM SHOWING UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE ECMWF HAVING HARDLY ANYTHING...SO KEPT
POPS LOW FOR NOW. THE SREF SHOWS SOME FZRA PROBABILITIES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TOP DOWN METHOD GIVES MOSTLY SNOW IN THE
NORTH WHERE POPS ARE LOCATED WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STAYING
MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTH WHERE CURRENTLY WE ARE GOING DRY. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING 30 DEGREES AND LOWS STAYING IN THE TEENS TO EVEN LOW 20S.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT BECOMING
MORE OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW WAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN...WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST...BUT
WILL TAKE THEIR TIME GETTING HERE. THE MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO KDVL BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...VALLEY SITES CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN AOB 10
KNOTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 180914
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND IF WE GET
ANY SNOW OF MENTION OR JUST FLURRIES.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN ON WV LOOP ROTATING OVER THE
MT/ND BORDER...AND THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT INTO THE
REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTH
WINDS AND MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN
A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND...WHICH MATCHES PRETTY WELL
WHERE THE RAP HAS SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP HAS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...SO THINK A WELL
DEFINED BAND OF SNOW IS NOT TOO LIKELY. HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR
WEST WITH SOME FLURRIES GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER EVEN WITH CLOUDS AS
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES OUT WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THAT ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET WELL INTO THE 20S TO
NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT
THINK THAT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER NORTHERN MN...AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE INCREASING. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME SIGNS OF PRECIP
MOVING IN WITH THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIATION FROM THE NAM SHOWING UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE ECMWF HAVING HARDLY ANYTHING...SO KEPT
POPS LOW FOR NOW. THE SREF SHOWS SOME FZRA PROBABILITIES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TOP DOWN METHOD GIVES MOSTLY SNOW IN THE
NORTH WHERE POPS ARE LOCATED WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STAYING
MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTH WHERE CURRENTLY WE ARE GOING DRY. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING 30 DEGREES AND LOWS STAYING IN THE TEENS TO EVEN LOW 20S.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT BECOMING
MORE OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW WAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN...WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST...BUT
WILL TAKE THEIR TIME GETTING HERE. THE MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO KDVL BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...VALLEY SITES CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN AOB 10
KNOTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 180914
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND IF WE GET
ANY SNOW OF MENTION OR JUST FLURRIES.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN ON WV LOOP ROTATING OVER THE
MT/ND BORDER...AND THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT INTO THE
REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTH
WINDS AND MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN
A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND...WHICH MATCHES PRETTY WELL
WHERE THE RAP HAS SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP HAS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...SO THINK A WELL
DEFINED BAND OF SNOW IS NOT TOO LIKELY. HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR
WEST WITH SOME FLURRIES GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER EVEN WITH CLOUDS AS
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES OUT WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THAT ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET WELL INTO THE 20S TO
NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT
THINK THAT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER NORTHERN MN...AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE INCREASING. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME SIGNS OF PRECIP
MOVING IN WITH THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIATION FROM THE NAM SHOWING UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE ECMWF HAVING HARDLY ANYTHING...SO KEPT
POPS LOW FOR NOW. THE SREF SHOWS SOME FZRA PROBABILITIES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TOP DOWN METHOD GIVES MOSTLY SNOW IN THE
NORTH WHERE POPS ARE LOCATED WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STAYING
MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTH WHERE CURRENTLY WE ARE GOING DRY. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING 30 DEGREES AND LOWS STAYING IN THE TEENS TO EVEN LOW 20S.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT BECOMING
MORE OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW WAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN...WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST...BUT
WILL TAKE THEIR TIME GETTING HERE. THE MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO KDVL BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...VALLEY SITES CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN AOB 10
KNOTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 180914
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND IF WE GET
ANY SNOW OF MENTION OR JUST FLURRIES.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN ON WV LOOP ROTATING OVER THE
MT/ND BORDER...AND THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT INTO THE
REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTH
WINDS AND MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN
A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND...WHICH MATCHES PRETTY WELL
WHERE THE RAP HAS SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP HAS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...SO THINK A WELL
DEFINED BAND OF SNOW IS NOT TOO LIKELY. HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR
WEST WITH SOME FLURRIES GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER EVEN WITH CLOUDS AS
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES OUT WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THAT ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET WELL INTO THE 20S TO
NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT
THINK THAT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER NORTHERN MN...AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE INCREASING. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME SIGNS OF PRECIP
MOVING IN WITH THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIATION FROM THE NAM SHOWING UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE ECMWF HAVING HARDLY ANYTHING...SO KEPT
POPS LOW FOR NOW. THE SREF SHOWS SOME FZRA PROBABILITIES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TOP DOWN METHOD GIVES MOSTLY SNOW IN THE
NORTH WHERE POPS ARE LOCATED WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STAYING
MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTH WHERE CURRENTLY WE ARE GOING DRY. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING 30 DEGREES AND LOWS STAYING IN THE TEENS TO EVEN LOW 20S.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT BECOMING
MORE OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW WAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN...WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST...BUT
WILL TAKE THEIR TIME GETTING HERE. THE MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO KDVL BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...VALLEY SITES CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN AOB 10
KNOTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KBIS 180816
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
216 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

QUICK UPDATE AS A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PER LATEST
RADAR...AND CONFIRMATION FROM LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS 1.5 PVU 850-700MB AXIS ATOP AN AREA
OF 850MB FRONTOGENESIS IS RESULTING IN A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY
SNOWFALL. TIGHT CIRCULATION CAN BE SEEN ON THE 0.5 DEGREE RADAR
SLICE. THE BAND OF SNOW BEGINS FROM HIGHWAY 8...JUST WEST OF
HALLIDAY WHERE LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED VISIBILITY OF AROUND
FIFTEEN 15 FEET WITH ABOUT A HALF INCH OF SNOW. WEBCAMS AT
COLEHARBOR AND WHITE SHIELD CONFIRM BRIEF BUT INTENSE SNOW. HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDDED FORECAST AND FOLLOWED THIS AXIS THROUGH THE
MORNING AS IT SLIDES NORTH. THE BAND EXTENDS SOUTHEAST INTO
GARRISON...WILTON...REGAN AND WING. A NOWCAST WAS SENT EARLIER
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. UPDATES TO THE TEXT PRODUCTS
FORTHCOMING.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP PLACES AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATING JUST
SOUTH OF WILLISTON WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT/THURSDAY...BEING LOCATED
BETWEEN DICKINSON AND BISMARCK BY 12Z...AND BETWEEN BISMARCK AND
JAMESTOWN BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE LATEST RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS INDICATE ENOUGH OMEGA/LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED
LAYER WITH RESPECT TO ICE. AS THE FROST POINT EXCEEDS THE
TEMPERATURE...SNOW PRODUCTION WILL RESULT IN THE SUPERSATURATED
ENVIRONMENT FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS FOR THIS FEATURE AND WILL
MONITOR AS IT EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THINKING IS ONE TO
TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED FLURRIES STILL A GOOD BET WITH THE ACTUAL
UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN ISSUE LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A HASSLE AGAIN ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN THE
LOW CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL ND...BUT TREND SEEMS
REASONABLE SO NO BIG CHANGES HERE.

LATEST 00 UTC NAM AND 02 UTC RAP SHOW A COUPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE LEAD WAVE
IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
GROUND REPORTS ARE INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE SMALL BAND LIFTING QUICKLY
NORTH...OPTED TO KEEP THIS AS A CONTINUED MENTION OF FLURRIES AS
GETTING A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH IS NOT LIKELY.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES
WEST ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. ALTHOUGH RAP/NAM
QPF IS CURRENTLY NIL...THE RAP/HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE 07-12
UTC TIMEFRAME. THINKING AS WE GO THROUGH A FEW MORE ITERATIONS OF
THE RAP/HRRR...THIS MAY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INCREASE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
INCREASING SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...HAVE EXTENDED FLURRIES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THINK MID SHIFT WILL HAVE THE
TIME TO RE-EVALUATE AND ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
MORNING HOURS IF NEEDED. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT THIS
SECOND WAVE LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO GIVE SOME OF US A LITTLE MORE
THAN JUST FLURRIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...COVERING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHEREVER WE HAVE THE STRATUS
WE CAN EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR STRATUS CONTINUES AT KDIK WITH MVFR STRATUS AT KDIK. LOW STRATUS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (KBIS-KMOT) 07-10 UTC
AND INTO KJMS 13-16 UTC. THE LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT
ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME LIFTING
AT KDIK LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AT
KDIK THROUGH 06 UTC.

A COUPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW...WHICH TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW
TO KISN AND KMOT LATE TONIGHT. THE SECOND WAVE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES...KDIK AROUND 10-16
UTC...KBIS AROUND 14-20 UTC AND KJMS AROUND 18-24 UTC. DID ADD A
TEMPO AT KDIK AND KBIS FOR SOME LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL HOLD OFF ON LOWER CIGS/VSBYS FOR KJMS AT THIS TIME AS
IT`S PRETTY FAR OUT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 180816
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
216 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

QUICK UPDATE AS A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PER LATEST
RADAR...AND CONFIRMATION FROM LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS 1.5 PVU 850-700MB AXIS ATOP AN AREA
OF 850MB FRONTOGENESIS IS RESULTING IN A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY
SNOWFALL. TIGHT CIRCULATION CAN BE SEEN ON THE 0.5 DEGREE RADAR
SLICE. THE BAND OF SNOW BEGINS FROM HIGHWAY 8...JUST WEST OF
HALLIDAY WHERE LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED VISIBILITY OF AROUND
FIFTEEN 15 FEET WITH ABOUT A HALF INCH OF SNOW. WEBCAMS AT
COLEHARBOR AND WHITE SHIELD CONFIRM BRIEF BUT INTENSE SNOW. HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDDED FORECAST AND FOLLOWED THIS AXIS THROUGH THE
MORNING AS IT SLIDES NORTH. THE BAND EXTENDS SOUTHEAST INTO
GARRISON...WILTON...REGAN AND WING. A NOWCAST WAS SENT EARLIER
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. UPDATES TO THE TEXT PRODUCTS
FORTHCOMING.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP PLACES AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATING JUST
SOUTH OF WILLISTON WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT/THURSDAY...BEING LOCATED
BETWEEN DICKINSON AND BISMARCK BY 12Z...AND BETWEEN BISMARCK AND
JAMESTOWN BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE LATEST RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS INDICATE ENOUGH OMEGA/LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED
LAYER WITH RESPECT TO ICE. AS THE FROST POINT EXCEEDS THE
TEMPERATURE...SNOW PRODUCTION WILL RESULT IN THE SUPERSATURATED
ENVIRONMENT FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS FOR THIS FEATURE AND WILL
MONITOR AS IT EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THINKING IS ONE TO
TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED FLURRIES STILL A GOOD BET WITH THE ACTUAL
UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN ISSUE LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A HASSLE AGAIN ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN THE
LOW CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL ND...BUT TREND SEEMS
REASONABLE SO NO BIG CHANGES HERE.

LATEST 00 UTC NAM AND 02 UTC RAP SHOW A COUPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE LEAD WAVE
IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
GROUND REPORTS ARE INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE SMALL BAND LIFTING QUICKLY
NORTH...OPTED TO KEEP THIS AS A CONTINUED MENTION OF FLURRIES AS
GETTING A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH IS NOT LIKELY.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES
WEST ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. ALTHOUGH RAP/NAM
QPF IS CURRENTLY NIL...THE RAP/HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE 07-12
UTC TIMEFRAME. THINKING AS WE GO THROUGH A FEW MORE ITERATIONS OF
THE RAP/HRRR...THIS MAY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INCREASE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
INCREASING SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...HAVE EXTENDED FLURRIES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THINK MID SHIFT WILL HAVE THE
TIME TO RE-EVALUATE AND ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
MORNING HOURS IF NEEDED. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT THIS
SECOND WAVE LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO GIVE SOME OF US A LITTLE MORE
THAN JUST FLURRIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...COVERING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHEREVER WE HAVE THE STRATUS
WE CAN EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR STRATUS CONTINUES AT KDIK WITH MVFR STRATUS AT KDIK. LOW STRATUS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (KBIS-KMOT) 07-10 UTC
AND INTO KJMS 13-16 UTC. THE LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT
ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME LIFTING
AT KDIK LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AT
KDIK THROUGH 06 UTC.

A COUPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW...WHICH TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW
TO KISN AND KMOT LATE TONIGHT. THE SECOND WAVE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES...KDIK AROUND 10-16
UTC...KBIS AROUND 14-20 UTC AND KJMS AROUND 18-24 UTC. DID ADD A
TEMPO AT KDIK AND KBIS FOR SOME LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL HOLD OFF ON LOWER CIGS/VSBYS FOR KJMS AT THIS TIME AS
IT`S PRETTY FAR OUT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 180612
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1212 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP PLACES AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATING JUST
SOUTH OF WILLISTON WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT/THURSDAY...BEING LOCATED
BETWEEN DICKINSON AND BISMARCK BY 12Z...AND BETWEEN BISMARCK AND
JAMESTOWN BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE LATEST RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS INDICATE ENOUGH OMEGA/LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED
LAYER WITH RESPECT TO ICE. AS THE FROST POINT EXCEEDS THE
TEMPERATURE...SNOW PRODUCTION WILL RESULT IN THE SUPERSATURATED
ENVIRONMENT FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS FOR THIS FEATURE AND WILL
MONITOR AS IT EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THINKING IS ONE TO
TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED FLURRIES STILL A GOOD BET WITH THE ACTUAL
UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN ISSUE LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A HASSLE AGAIN ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN THE
LOW CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL ND...BUT TREND SEEMS
REASONABLE SO NO BIG CHANGES HERE.

LATEST 00 UTC NAM AND 02 UTC RAP SHOW A COUPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE LEAD WAVE
IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
GROUND REPORTS ARE INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE SMALL BAND LIFTING QUICKLY
NORTH...OPTED TO KEEP THIS AS A CONTINUED MENTION OF FLURRIES AS
GETTING A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH IS NOT LIKELY.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES
WEST ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. ALTHOUGH RAP/NAM
QPF IS CURRENTLY NIL...THE RAP/HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE 07-12
UTC TIMEFRAME. THINKING AS WE GO THROUGH A FEW MORE ITERATIONS OF
THE RAP/HRRR...THIS MAY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INCREASE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
INCREASING SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...HAVE EXTENDED FLURRIES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THINK MID SHIFT WILL HAVE THE
TIME TO RE-EVALUATE AND ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
MORNING HOURS IF NEEDED. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT THIS
SECOND WAVE LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO GIVE SOME OF US A LITTLE MORE
THAN JUST FLURRIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...COVERING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHEREVER WE HAVE THE STRATUS
WE CAN EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR STRATUS CONTINUES AT KDIK WITH MVFR STRATUS AT KDIK. LOW STRATUS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (KBIS-KMOT) 07-10 UTC
AND INTO KJMS 13-16 UTC. THE LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT
ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME LIFTING
AT KDIK LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AT
KDIK THROUGH 06 UTC.

A COUPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW...WHICH TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW
TO KISN AND KMOT LATE TONIGHT. THE SECOND WAVE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES...KDIK AROUND 10-16
UTC...KBIS AROUND 14-20 UTC AND KJMS AROUND 18-24 UTC. DID ADD A
TEMPO AT KDIK AND KBIS FOR SOME LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL HOLD OFF ON LOWER CIGS/VSBYS FOR KJMS AT THIS TIME AS
IT`S PRETTY FAR OUT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 180612
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1212 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP PLACES AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATING JUST
SOUTH OF WILLISTON WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT/THURSDAY...BEING LOCATED
BETWEEN DICKINSON AND BISMARCK BY 12Z...AND BETWEEN BISMARCK AND
JAMESTOWN BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE LATEST RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS INDICATE ENOUGH OMEGA/LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED
LAYER WITH RESPECT TO ICE. AS THE FROST POINT EXCEEDS THE
TEMPERATURE...SNOW PRODUCTION WILL RESULT IN THE SUPERSATURATED
ENVIRONMENT FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS FOR THIS FEATURE AND WILL
MONITOR AS IT EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THINKING IS ONE TO
TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED FLURRIES STILL A GOOD BET WITH THE ACTUAL
UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN ISSUE LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A HASSLE AGAIN ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN THE
LOW CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL ND...BUT TREND SEEMS
REASONABLE SO NO BIG CHANGES HERE.

LATEST 00 UTC NAM AND 02 UTC RAP SHOW A COUPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE LEAD WAVE
IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
GROUND REPORTS ARE INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE SMALL BAND LIFTING QUICKLY
NORTH...OPTED TO KEEP THIS AS A CONTINUED MENTION OF FLURRIES AS
GETTING A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH IS NOT LIKELY.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES
WEST ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. ALTHOUGH RAP/NAM
QPF IS CURRENTLY NIL...THE RAP/HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE 07-12
UTC TIMEFRAME. THINKING AS WE GO THROUGH A FEW MORE ITERATIONS OF
THE RAP/HRRR...THIS MAY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INCREASE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
INCREASING SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...HAVE EXTENDED FLURRIES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THINK MID SHIFT WILL HAVE THE
TIME TO RE-EVALUATE AND ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
MORNING HOURS IF NEEDED. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT THIS
SECOND WAVE LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO GIVE SOME OF US A LITTLE MORE
THAN JUST FLURRIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...COVERING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHEREVER WE HAVE THE STRATUS
WE CAN EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR STRATUS CONTINUES AT KDIK WITH MVFR STRATUS AT KDIK. LOW STRATUS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (KBIS-KMOT) 07-10 UTC
AND INTO KJMS 13-16 UTC. THE LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT
ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME LIFTING
AT KDIK LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AT
KDIK THROUGH 06 UTC.

A COUPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW...WHICH TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW
TO KISN AND KMOT LATE TONIGHT. THE SECOND WAVE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES...KDIK AROUND 10-16
UTC...KBIS AROUND 14-20 UTC AND KJMS AROUND 18-24 UTC. DID ADD A
TEMPO AT KDIK AND KBIS FOR SOME LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL HOLD OFF ON LOWER CIGS/VSBYS FOR KJMS AT THIS TIME AS
IT`S PRETTY FAR OUT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 180612
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1212 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP PLACES AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATING JUST
SOUTH OF WILLISTON WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT/THURSDAY...BEING LOCATED
BETWEEN DICKINSON AND BISMARCK BY 12Z...AND BETWEEN BISMARCK AND
JAMESTOWN BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE LATEST RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS INDICATE ENOUGH OMEGA/LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED
LAYER WITH RESPECT TO ICE. AS THE FROST POINT EXCEEDS THE
TEMPERATURE...SNOW PRODUCTION WILL RESULT IN THE SUPERSATURATED
ENVIRONMENT FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS FOR THIS FEATURE AND WILL
MONITOR AS IT EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THINKING IS ONE TO
TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED FLURRIES STILL A GOOD BET WITH THE ACTUAL
UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN ISSUE LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A HASSLE AGAIN ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN THE
LOW CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL ND...BUT TREND SEEMS
REASONABLE SO NO BIG CHANGES HERE.

LATEST 00 UTC NAM AND 02 UTC RAP SHOW A COUPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE LEAD WAVE
IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
GROUND REPORTS ARE INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE SMALL BAND LIFTING QUICKLY
NORTH...OPTED TO KEEP THIS AS A CONTINUED MENTION OF FLURRIES AS
GETTING A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH IS NOT LIKELY.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES
WEST ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. ALTHOUGH RAP/NAM
QPF IS CURRENTLY NIL...THE RAP/HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE 07-12
UTC TIMEFRAME. THINKING AS WE GO THROUGH A FEW MORE ITERATIONS OF
THE RAP/HRRR...THIS MAY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INCREASE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
INCREASING SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...HAVE EXTENDED FLURRIES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THINK MID SHIFT WILL HAVE THE
TIME TO RE-EVALUATE AND ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
MORNING HOURS IF NEEDED. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT THIS
SECOND WAVE LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO GIVE SOME OF US A LITTLE MORE
THAN JUST FLURRIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...COVERING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHEREVER WE HAVE THE STRATUS
WE CAN EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR STRATUS CONTINUES AT KDIK WITH MVFR STRATUS AT KDIK. LOW STRATUS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (KBIS-KMOT) 07-10 UTC
AND INTO KJMS 13-16 UTC. THE LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT
ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME LIFTING
AT KDIK LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AT
KDIK THROUGH 06 UTC.

A COUPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW...WHICH TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW
TO KISN AND KMOT LATE TONIGHT. THE SECOND WAVE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES...KDIK AROUND 10-16
UTC...KBIS AROUND 14-20 UTC AND KJMS AROUND 18-24 UTC. DID ADD A
TEMPO AT KDIK AND KBIS FOR SOME LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL HOLD OFF ON LOWER CIGS/VSBYS FOR KJMS AT THIS TIME AS
IT`S PRETTY FAR OUT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 180612
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1212 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP PLACES AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATING JUST
SOUTH OF WILLISTON WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT/THURSDAY...BEING LOCATED
BETWEEN DICKINSON AND BISMARCK BY 12Z...AND BETWEEN BISMARCK AND
JAMESTOWN BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE LATEST RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS INDICATE ENOUGH OMEGA/LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED
LAYER WITH RESPECT TO ICE. AS THE FROST POINT EXCEEDS THE
TEMPERATURE...SNOW PRODUCTION WILL RESULT IN THE SUPERSATURATED
ENVIRONMENT FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS FOR THIS FEATURE AND WILL
MONITOR AS IT EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THINKING IS ONE TO
TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED FLURRIES STILL A GOOD BET WITH THE ACTUAL
UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN ISSUE LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A HASSLE AGAIN ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN THE
LOW CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL ND...BUT TREND SEEMS
REASONABLE SO NO BIG CHANGES HERE.

LATEST 00 UTC NAM AND 02 UTC RAP SHOW A COUPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE LEAD WAVE
IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
GROUND REPORTS ARE INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE SMALL BAND LIFTING QUICKLY
NORTH...OPTED TO KEEP THIS AS A CONTINUED MENTION OF FLURRIES AS
GETTING A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH IS NOT LIKELY.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES
WEST ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. ALTHOUGH RAP/NAM
QPF IS CURRENTLY NIL...THE RAP/HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE 07-12
UTC TIMEFRAME. THINKING AS WE GO THROUGH A FEW MORE ITERATIONS OF
THE RAP/HRRR...THIS MAY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INCREASE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
INCREASING SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...HAVE EXTENDED FLURRIES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THINK MID SHIFT WILL HAVE THE
TIME TO RE-EVALUATE AND ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
MORNING HOURS IF NEEDED. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT THIS
SECOND WAVE LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO GIVE SOME OF US A LITTLE MORE
THAN JUST FLURRIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...COVERING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHEREVER WE HAVE THE STRATUS
WE CAN EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR STRATUS CONTINUES AT KDIK WITH MVFR STRATUS AT KDIK. LOW STRATUS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (KBIS-KMOT) 07-10 UTC
AND INTO KJMS 13-16 UTC. THE LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT
ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME LIFTING
AT KDIK LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AT
KDIK THROUGH 06 UTC.

A COUPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW...WHICH TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW
TO KISN AND KMOT LATE TONIGHT. THE SECOND WAVE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES...KDIK AROUND 10-16
UTC...KBIS AROUND 14-20 UTC AND KJMS AROUND 18-24 UTC. DID ADD A
TEMPO AT KDIK AND KBIS FOR SOME LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL HOLD OFF ON LOWER CIGS/VSBYS FOR KJMS AT THIS TIME AS
IT`S PRETTY FAR OUT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KFGF 180530
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1130 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO MAJOR UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED. THE
SLOWER TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST STILL LOOKS
GOOD...WITH THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
BECOMING CLOUDY MAINLY AFTER 12Z.

THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE HRRR/RAP ARE BACKING OFF ON THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FOG TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF HALLOCK...BUT COVERAGE
IS STILL MINIMAL. WILL MONITOR AND ADJUST AS NEEDED...BUT FOR NOW
WILL NOT MENTION FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEIR
IMPACTS ON TEMPS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WILL KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH FRIDAY.

CURRENT CLEAR SKY WILL MAKE FOR A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP. THE FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TEMPERED OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS MIXING INCREASES WITH
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL RH FIELDS
INDICATE THE WESTERN THIRD OF CWFA WILL HAVE OVERCAST SKIES BY 12Z
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE WEAK 500MB TROUGH TRACK ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL KEEP SLIGHT -SN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AND NW MN AS SOUTH WINDS BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AS
PWATS REACH THREE TO FOUR TENTHS. HOWEVER LIFT IS UNIMPRESSIVE
WITHIN THE COLUMN. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS
COLUMN WARMS WITH MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW ESCORTING IN DWPTS INTO THE
MID 20S. MAY SEE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REINFORCED GIVEN THE COLD
SFC AND MOIST LOW LAYER.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK A 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER
MICHIGAN.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WEST OF THE
LOW OVER OUR AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.  ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR EAST...BUT OVERALL LOOKS
CLOUDY...WINDY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OVERALL
MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST...BUT
WILL TAKE THEIR TIME GETTING HERE. THE MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO KDVL BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...VALLEY SITES CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN AOB 10
KNOTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 180530
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1130 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO MAJOR UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED. THE
SLOWER TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST STILL LOOKS
GOOD...WITH THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
BECOMING CLOUDY MAINLY AFTER 12Z.

THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE HRRR/RAP ARE BACKING OFF ON THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FOG TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF HALLOCK...BUT COVERAGE
IS STILL MINIMAL. WILL MONITOR AND ADJUST AS NEEDED...BUT FOR NOW
WILL NOT MENTION FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEIR
IMPACTS ON TEMPS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WILL KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH FRIDAY.

CURRENT CLEAR SKY WILL MAKE FOR A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP. THE FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TEMPERED OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS MIXING INCREASES WITH
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL RH FIELDS
INDICATE THE WESTERN THIRD OF CWFA WILL HAVE OVERCAST SKIES BY 12Z
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE WEAK 500MB TROUGH TRACK ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL KEEP SLIGHT -SN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AND NW MN AS SOUTH WINDS BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AS
PWATS REACH THREE TO FOUR TENTHS. HOWEVER LIFT IS UNIMPRESSIVE
WITHIN THE COLUMN. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS
COLUMN WARMS WITH MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW ESCORTING IN DWPTS INTO THE
MID 20S. MAY SEE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REINFORCED GIVEN THE COLD
SFC AND MOIST LOW LAYER.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK A 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER
MICHIGAN.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WEST OF THE
LOW OVER OUR AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.  ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR EAST...BUT OVERALL LOOKS
CLOUDY...WINDY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OVERALL
MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST...BUT
WILL TAKE THEIR TIME GETTING HERE. THE MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO KDVL BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...VALLEY SITES CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN AOB 10
KNOTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KBIS 180349
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN ISSUE LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A HASSLE AGAIN ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN THE
LOW CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL ND...BUT TREND SEEMS
REASONABLE SO NO BIG CHANGES HERE.

LATEST 00 UTC NAM AND 02 UTC RAP SHOW A COUPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE LEAD WAVE
IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
GROUND REPORTS ARE INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE SMALL BAND LIFTING QUICKLY
NORTH...OPTED TO KEEP THIS AS A CONTINUED MENTION OF FLURRIES AS
GETTING A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH IS NOT LIKELY.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES
WEST ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. ALTHOUGH RAP/NAM
QPF IS CURRENTLY NIL...THE RAP/HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE 07-12
UTC TIMEFRAME. THINKING AS WE GO THROUGH A FEW MORE ITERATIONS OF
THE RAP/HRRR...THIS MAY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INCREASE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
INCREASING SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...HAVE EXTENDED FLURRIES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THINK MID SHIFT WILL HAVE THE
TIME TO RE-EVALUATE AND ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
MORNING HOURS IF NEEDED. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT THIS
SECOND WAVE LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO GIVE SOME OF US A LITTLE MORE
THAN JUST FLURRIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...COVERING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHEREVER WE HAVE THE STRATUS
WE CAN EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR STRATUS CONTINUES AT KDIK WITH MVFR STRATUS AT KDIK. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KBIS AND KMOT ARE ON
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS...CURRENTLY CLEAR...BUT WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE MVFR STRATUS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE 00 UTC FORECAST PERIOD. KJMS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT...AND
THEN REMAINING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES. LOOKING A LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS WILL
PROBABLY ADD AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES OF KDIK...KBIS...KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING WEST TO EAST ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER. FOR NOW WILL LIKELY KEEP VSBYS ABOVE 5SM UNTIL WE SEE MORE
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 180349
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN ISSUE LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A HASSLE AGAIN ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN THE
LOW CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL ND...BUT TREND SEEMS
REASONABLE SO NO BIG CHANGES HERE.

LATEST 00 UTC NAM AND 02 UTC RAP SHOW A COUPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE LEAD WAVE
IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
GROUND REPORTS ARE INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE SMALL BAND LIFTING QUICKLY
NORTH...OPTED TO KEEP THIS AS A CONTINUED MENTION OF FLURRIES AS
GETTING A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH IS NOT LIKELY.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES
WEST ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. ALTHOUGH RAP/NAM
QPF IS CURRENTLY NIL...THE RAP/HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE 07-12
UTC TIMEFRAME. THINKING AS WE GO THROUGH A FEW MORE ITERATIONS OF
THE RAP/HRRR...THIS MAY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INCREASE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
INCREASING SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...HAVE EXTENDED FLURRIES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THINK MID SHIFT WILL HAVE THE
TIME TO RE-EVALUATE AND ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
MORNING HOURS IF NEEDED. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT THIS
SECOND WAVE LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO GIVE SOME OF US A LITTLE MORE
THAN JUST FLURRIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...COVERING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHEREVER WE HAVE THE STRATUS
WE CAN EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR STRATUS CONTINUES AT KDIK WITH MVFR STRATUS AT KDIK. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KBIS AND KMOT ARE ON
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS...CURRENTLY CLEAR...BUT WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE MVFR STRATUS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE 00 UTC FORECAST PERIOD. KJMS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT...AND
THEN REMAINING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES. LOOKING A LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS WILL
PROBABLY ADD AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES OF KDIK...KBIS...KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING WEST TO EAST ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER. FOR NOW WILL LIKELY KEEP VSBYS ABOVE 5SM UNTIL WE SEE MORE
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 180349
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN ISSUE LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A HASSLE AGAIN ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN THE
LOW CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL ND...BUT TREND SEEMS
REASONABLE SO NO BIG CHANGES HERE.

LATEST 00 UTC NAM AND 02 UTC RAP SHOW A COUPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE LEAD WAVE
IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
GROUND REPORTS ARE INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE SMALL BAND LIFTING QUICKLY
NORTH...OPTED TO KEEP THIS AS A CONTINUED MENTION OF FLURRIES AS
GETTING A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH IS NOT LIKELY.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES
WEST ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. ALTHOUGH RAP/NAM
QPF IS CURRENTLY NIL...THE RAP/HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE 07-12
UTC TIMEFRAME. THINKING AS WE GO THROUGH A FEW MORE ITERATIONS OF
THE RAP/HRRR...THIS MAY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INCREASE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
INCREASING SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...HAVE EXTENDED FLURRIES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THINK MID SHIFT WILL HAVE THE
TIME TO RE-EVALUATE AND ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
MORNING HOURS IF NEEDED. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT THIS
SECOND WAVE LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO GIVE SOME OF US A LITTLE MORE
THAN JUST FLURRIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...COVERING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHEREVER WE HAVE THE STRATUS
WE CAN EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR STRATUS CONTINUES AT KDIK WITH MVFR STRATUS AT KDIK. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KBIS AND KMOT ARE ON
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS...CURRENTLY CLEAR...BUT WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE MVFR STRATUS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE 00 UTC FORECAST PERIOD. KJMS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT...AND
THEN REMAINING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES. LOOKING A LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS WILL
PROBABLY ADD AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES OF KDIK...KBIS...KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING WEST TO EAST ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER. FOR NOW WILL LIKELY KEEP VSBYS ABOVE 5SM UNTIL WE SEE MORE
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 180349
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN ISSUE LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A HASSLE AGAIN ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN THE
LOW CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL ND...BUT TREND SEEMS
REASONABLE SO NO BIG CHANGES HERE.

LATEST 00 UTC NAM AND 02 UTC RAP SHOW A COUPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE LEAD WAVE
IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
GROUND REPORTS ARE INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE SMALL BAND LIFTING QUICKLY
NORTH...OPTED TO KEEP THIS AS A CONTINUED MENTION OF FLURRIES AS
GETTING A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH IS NOT LIKELY.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES
WEST ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. ALTHOUGH RAP/NAM
QPF IS CURRENTLY NIL...THE RAP/HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE 07-12
UTC TIMEFRAME. THINKING AS WE GO THROUGH A FEW MORE ITERATIONS OF
THE RAP/HRRR...THIS MAY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INCREASE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
INCREASING SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...HAVE EXTENDED FLURRIES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THINK MID SHIFT WILL HAVE THE
TIME TO RE-EVALUATE AND ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
MORNING HOURS IF NEEDED. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT THIS
SECOND WAVE LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO GIVE SOME OF US A LITTLE MORE
THAN JUST FLURRIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...COVERING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHEREVER WE HAVE THE STRATUS
WE CAN EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR STRATUS CONTINUES AT KDIK WITH MVFR STRATUS AT KDIK. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KBIS AND KMOT ARE ON
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS...CURRENTLY CLEAR...BUT WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE MVFR STRATUS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE 00 UTC FORECAST PERIOD. KJMS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT...AND
THEN REMAINING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES. LOOKING A LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS WILL
PROBABLY ADD AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES OF KDIK...KBIS...KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING WEST TO EAST ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER. FOR NOW WILL LIKELY KEEP VSBYS ABOVE 5SM UNTIL WE SEE MORE
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 180349
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN ISSUE LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A HASSLE AGAIN ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN THE
LOW CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL ND...BUT TREND SEEMS
REASONABLE SO NO BIG CHANGES HERE.

LATEST 00 UTC NAM AND 02 UTC RAP SHOW A COUPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE LEAD WAVE
IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
GROUND REPORTS ARE INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE SMALL BAND LIFTING QUICKLY
NORTH...OPTED TO KEEP THIS AS A CONTINUED MENTION OF FLURRIES AS
GETTING A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH IS NOT LIKELY.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES
WEST ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. ALTHOUGH RAP/NAM
QPF IS CURRENTLY NIL...THE RAP/HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE 07-12
UTC TIMEFRAME. THINKING AS WE GO THROUGH A FEW MORE ITERATIONS OF
THE RAP/HRRR...THIS MAY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INCREASE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
INCREASING SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...HAVE EXTENDED FLURRIES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THINK MID SHIFT WILL HAVE THE
TIME TO RE-EVALUATE AND ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
MORNING HOURS IF NEEDED. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT THIS
SECOND WAVE LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO GIVE SOME OF US A LITTLE MORE
THAN JUST FLURRIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...COVERING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHEREVER WE HAVE THE STRATUS
WE CAN EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR STRATUS CONTINUES AT KDIK WITH MVFR STRATUS AT KDIK. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KBIS AND KMOT ARE ON
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS...CURRENTLY CLEAR...BUT WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE MVFR STRATUS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE 00 UTC FORECAST PERIOD. KJMS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT...AND
THEN REMAINING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES. LOOKING A LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS WILL
PROBABLY ADD AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES OF KDIK...KBIS...KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING WEST TO EAST ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER. FOR NOW WILL LIKELY KEEP VSBYS ABOVE 5SM UNTIL WE SEE MORE
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 180349
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN ISSUE LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A HASSLE AGAIN ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN THE
LOW CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL ND...BUT TREND SEEMS
REASONABLE SO NO BIG CHANGES HERE.

LATEST 00 UTC NAM AND 02 UTC RAP SHOW A COUPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE LEAD WAVE
IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
GROUND REPORTS ARE INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE SMALL BAND LIFTING QUICKLY
NORTH...OPTED TO KEEP THIS AS A CONTINUED MENTION OF FLURRIES AS
GETTING A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH IS NOT LIKELY.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES
WEST ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. ALTHOUGH RAP/NAM
QPF IS CURRENTLY NIL...THE RAP/HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE 07-12
UTC TIMEFRAME. THINKING AS WE GO THROUGH A FEW MORE ITERATIONS OF
THE RAP/HRRR...THIS MAY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INCREASE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
INCREASING SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...HAVE EXTENDED FLURRIES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THINK MID SHIFT WILL HAVE THE
TIME TO RE-EVALUATE AND ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
MORNING HOURS IF NEEDED. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT THIS
SECOND WAVE LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO GIVE SOME OF US A LITTLE MORE
THAN JUST FLURRIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...COVERING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHEREVER WE HAVE THE STRATUS
WE CAN EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR STRATUS CONTINUES AT KDIK WITH MVFR STRATUS AT KDIK. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KBIS AND KMOT ARE ON
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS...CURRENTLY CLEAR...BUT WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE MVFR STRATUS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE 00 UTC FORECAST PERIOD. KJMS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT...AND
THEN REMAINING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES. LOOKING A LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS WILL
PROBABLY ADD AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES OF KDIK...KBIS...KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING WEST TO EAST ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER. FOR NOW WILL LIKELY KEEP VSBYS ABOVE 5SM UNTIL WE SEE MORE
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KFGF 180335
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO MAJOR UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED. THE
SLOWER TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST STILL LOOKS
GOOD...WITH THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
BECOMING CLOUDY MAINLY AFTER 12Z.

THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE HRRR/RAP ARE BACKING OFF ON THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FOG TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF HALLOCK...BUT COVERAGE
IS STILL MINIMAL. WILL MONITOR AND ADJUST AS NEEDED...BUT FOR NOW
WILL NOT MENTION FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEIR
IMPACTS ON TEMPS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WILL KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH FRIDAY.

CURRENT CLEAR SKY WILL MAKE FOR A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH IDEAL RADITONAL COOLING SET UP. THE FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TEMPERED OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS MIXING INCREASES WITH
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL RH FIELDS
INDICATE THE WESTERN THIRD OF CWFA WILL HAVE OVERCAST SKIES BY 12Z
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE WEAK 500MB TROUGH TRACK ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL KEEP SLIGHT -SN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AND NW MN AS SOUTH WINDS BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AS
PWATS REACH THREE TO FOUR TENTHS. HOWEVER LIFT IS UNIMPRESSIVE
WITHIN THE COLUMN. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS
COLUMN WARMS WITH MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW ESCORTING IN DWPTS INTO THE
MID 20S. MAY SEE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REINFORCED GIVEN THE COLD
SFC AND MOIST LOW LAYER.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK A 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER
MICHIGAN.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WEST OF THE
LOW OVER OUR AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.  ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR EAST...BUT OVERALL LOOKS
CLOUDY...WINDY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OVERALL
MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKY FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UPDATED GUIDANCE
IS SLOWING THE MVFR CIGS ADVANCING FROM THE WEST...AND ALTHOUGH
THEY MAY AFFECT TAF SITES TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD...WILL
HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE OBTAINED. THE
POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR FOG...BUT AGAIN...WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE OBTAINED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 180335
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO MAJOR UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED. THE
SLOWER TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST STILL LOOKS
GOOD...WITH THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
BECOMING CLOUDY MAINLY AFTER 12Z.

THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE HRRR/RAP ARE BACKING OFF ON THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FOG TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF HALLOCK...BUT COVERAGE
IS STILL MINIMAL. WILL MONITOR AND ADJUST AS NEEDED...BUT FOR NOW
WILL NOT MENTION FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEIR
IMPACTS ON TEMPS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WILL KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH FRIDAY.

CURRENT CLEAR SKY WILL MAKE FOR A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH IDEAL RADITONAL COOLING SET UP. THE FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TEMPERED OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS MIXING INCREASES WITH
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL RH FIELDS
INDICATE THE WESTERN THIRD OF CWFA WILL HAVE OVERCAST SKIES BY 12Z
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE WEAK 500MB TROUGH TRACK ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL KEEP SLIGHT -SN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AND NW MN AS SOUTH WINDS BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AS
PWATS REACH THREE TO FOUR TENTHS. HOWEVER LIFT IS UNIMPRESSIVE
WITHIN THE COLUMN. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS
COLUMN WARMS WITH MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW ESCORTING IN DWPTS INTO THE
MID 20S. MAY SEE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REINFORCED GIVEN THE COLD
SFC AND MOIST LOW LAYER.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK A 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER
MICHIGAN.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WEST OF THE
LOW OVER OUR AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.  ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR EAST...BUT OVERALL LOOKS
CLOUDY...WINDY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OVERALL
MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKY FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UPDATED GUIDANCE
IS SLOWING THE MVFR CIGS ADVANCING FROM THE WEST...AND ALTHOUGH
THEY MAY AFFECT TAF SITES TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD...WILL
HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE OBTAINED. THE
POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR FOG...BUT AGAIN...WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE OBTAINED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 180027
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
627 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE IS SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF CLOUDS FROM THE WEST
INTO THIS REGION. WENT WITH THIS TREND FOR THE UPDATE. RAP/HRRR
GUIDANCE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TONIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING FOG UNTIL MORE
CONFIDENCE CAN BE OBTAINED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEIR
IMPACTS ON TEMPS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WILL KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH FRIDAY.

CURRENT CLEAR SKY WILL MAKE FOR A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH IDEAL RADITONAL COOLING SET UP. THE FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TEMPERED OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS MIXING INCREASES WITH
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL RH FIELDS
INDICATE THE WESTERN THIRD OF CWFA WILL HAVE OVERCAST SKIES BY 12Z
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE WEAK 500MB TROUGH TRACK ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL KEEP SLIGHT -SN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AND NW MN AS SOUTH WINDS BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AS
PWATS REACH THREE TO FOUR TENTHS. HOWEVER LIFT IS UNIMPRESSIVE
WITHIN THE COLUMN. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS
COLUMN WARMS WITH MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW ESCORTING IN DWPTS INTO THE
MID 20S. MAY SEE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REINFORCED GIVEN THE COLD
SFC AND MOIST LOW LAYER.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK A 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER
MICHIGAN.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WEST OF THE
LOW OVER OUR AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.  ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR EAST...BUT OVERALL LOOKS
CLOUDY...WINDY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OVERALL
MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKY FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UPDATED GUIDANCE
IS SLOWING THE MVFR CIGS ADVANCING FROM THE WEST...AND ALTHOUGH
THEY MAY AFFECT TAF SITES TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD...WILL
HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE OBTAINED. THE
POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR FOG...BUT AGAIN...WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE OBTAINED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 180027
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
627 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE IS SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF CLOUDS FROM THE WEST
INTO THIS REGION. WENT WITH THIS TREND FOR THE UPDATE. RAP/HRRR
GUIDANCE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TONIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING FOG UNTIL MORE
CONFIDENCE CAN BE OBTAINED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEIR
IMPACTS ON TEMPS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WILL KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH FRIDAY.

CURRENT CLEAR SKY WILL MAKE FOR A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH IDEAL RADITONAL COOLING SET UP. THE FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TEMPERED OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS MIXING INCREASES WITH
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL RH FIELDS
INDICATE THE WESTERN THIRD OF CWFA WILL HAVE OVERCAST SKIES BY 12Z
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE WEAK 500MB TROUGH TRACK ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL KEEP SLIGHT -SN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AND NW MN AS SOUTH WINDS BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AS
PWATS REACH THREE TO FOUR TENTHS. HOWEVER LIFT IS UNIMPRESSIVE
WITHIN THE COLUMN. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS
COLUMN WARMS WITH MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW ESCORTING IN DWPTS INTO THE
MID 20S. MAY SEE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REINFORCED GIVEN THE COLD
SFC AND MOIST LOW LAYER.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK A 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER
MICHIGAN.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WEST OF THE
LOW OVER OUR AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.  ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR EAST...BUT OVERALL LOOKS
CLOUDY...WINDY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OVERALL
MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKY FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UPDATED GUIDANCE
IS SLOWING THE MVFR CIGS ADVANCING FROM THE WEST...AND ALTHOUGH
THEY MAY AFFECT TAF SITES TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD...WILL
HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE OBTAINED. THE
POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR FOG...BUT AGAIN...WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE OBTAINED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 180027
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
627 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE IS SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF CLOUDS FROM THE WEST
INTO THIS REGION. WENT WITH THIS TREND FOR THE UPDATE. RAP/HRRR
GUIDANCE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TONIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING FOG UNTIL MORE
CONFIDENCE CAN BE OBTAINED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEIR
IMPACTS ON TEMPS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WILL KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH FRIDAY.

CURRENT CLEAR SKY WILL MAKE FOR A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH IDEAL RADITONAL COOLING SET UP. THE FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TEMPERED OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS MIXING INCREASES WITH
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL RH FIELDS
INDICATE THE WESTERN THIRD OF CWFA WILL HAVE OVERCAST SKIES BY 12Z
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE WEAK 500MB TROUGH TRACK ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL KEEP SLIGHT -SN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AND NW MN AS SOUTH WINDS BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AS
PWATS REACH THREE TO FOUR TENTHS. HOWEVER LIFT IS UNIMPRESSIVE
WITHIN THE COLUMN. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS
COLUMN WARMS WITH MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW ESCORTING IN DWPTS INTO THE
MID 20S. MAY SEE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REINFORCED GIVEN THE COLD
SFC AND MOIST LOW LAYER.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK A 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER
MICHIGAN.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WEST OF THE
LOW OVER OUR AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.  ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR EAST...BUT OVERALL LOOKS
CLOUDY...WINDY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OVERALL
MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKY FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UPDATED GUIDANCE
IS SLOWING THE MVFR CIGS ADVANCING FROM THE WEST...AND ALTHOUGH
THEY MAY AFFECT TAF SITES TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD...WILL
HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE OBTAINED. THE
POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR FOG...BUT AGAIN...WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE OBTAINED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 180027
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
627 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE IS SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF CLOUDS FROM THE WEST
INTO THIS REGION. WENT WITH THIS TREND FOR THE UPDATE. RAP/HRRR
GUIDANCE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TONIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING FOG UNTIL MORE
CONFIDENCE CAN BE OBTAINED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEIR
IMPACTS ON TEMPS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WILL KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH FRIDAY.

CURRENT CLEAR SKY WILL MAKE FOR A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH IDEAL RADITONAL COOLING SET UP. THE FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TEMPERED OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS MIXING INCREASES WITH
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL RH FIELDS
INDICATE THE WESTERN THIRD OF CWFA WILL HAVE OVERCAST SKIES BY 12Z
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE WEAK 500MB TROUGH TRACK ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL KEEP SLIGHT -SN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AND NW MN AS SOUTH WINDS BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AS
PWATS REACH THREE TO FOUR TENTHS. HOWEVER LIFT IS UNIMPRESSIVE
WITHIN THE COLUMN. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS
COLUMN WARMS WITH MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW ESCORTING IN DWPTS INTO THE
MID 20S. MAY SEE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REINFORCED GIVEN THE COLD
SFC AND MOIST LOW LAYER.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK A 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER
MICHIGAN.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WEST OF THE
LOW OVER OUR AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.  ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR EAST...BUT OVERALL LOOKS
CLOUDY...WINDY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OVERALL
MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKY FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UPDATED GUIDANCE
IS SLOWING THE MVFR CIGS ADVANCING FROM THE WEST...AND ALTHOUGH
THEY MAY AFFECT TAF SITES TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD...WILL
HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE OBTAINED. THE
POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR FOG...BUT AGAIN...WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE OBTAINED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KBIS 172351
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...COVERING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHEREVER WE HAVE THE STRATUS
WE CAN EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR STRATUS CONTINUES AT KDIK WITH MVFR STRATUS AT KDIK. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KBIS AND KMOT ARE ON
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS...CURRENTLY CLEAR...BUT WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE MVFR STRATUS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE 00 UTC FORECAST PERIOD. KJMS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT...AND
THEN REMAINING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 172351
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...COVERING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHEREVER WE HAVE THE STRATUS
WE CAN EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR STRATUS CONTINUES AT KDIK WITH MVFR STRATUS AT KDIK. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KBIS AND KMOT ARE ON
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS...CURRENTLY CLEAR...BUT WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE MVFR STRATUS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE 00 UTC FORECAST PERIOD. KJMS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT...AND
THEN REMAINING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 172153
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO
SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 172153
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO
SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 172153
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO
SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 172153
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO
SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS









000
FXUS63 KFGF 172135
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
335 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEIR
IMPACTS ON TEMPS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WILL KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH FRIDAY.

CURRENT CLEAR SKY WILL MAKE FOR A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH IDEAL RADITONAL COOLING SET UP. THE FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TEMPERED OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS MIXING INCREASES WITH
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL RH FIELDS
INDICATE THE WESTERN THIRD OF CWFA WILL HAVE OVERCAST SKIES BY 12Z
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE WEAK 500MB TROUGH TRACK ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL KEEP SLIGHT -SN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AND NW MN AS SOUTH WINDS BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AS
PWATS REACH THREE TO FOUR TENTHS. HOWEVER LIFT IS UNIMPRESSIVE
WITHIN THE COLUMN. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS
COLUMN WARMS WITH MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW ESCORTING IN DWPTS INTO THE
MID 20S. MAY SEE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REINFORCED GIVEN THE COLD
SFC AND MOIST LOW LAYER.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK A 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER
MICHIGAN.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WEST OF THE
LOW OVER OUR AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.  ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR EAST...BUT OVERALL LOOKS
CLOUDY...WINDY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OVERALL
MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY IN THE RRV/ERN ND AFTER
00Z WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE VALLEY GOES LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.   THERE IS ONE PATCH OF MID CLOUD
TVF-FSE AREA MOVING WEST AND IT MAY MAKE IT TO GFK AT MID AFTN FOR A
FEW HOURS BUT ALSO MAY JUST DISSIPATE.  THE MVFR CIGS IN WRN ND WILL
STAY OUT IN THAT AREA  BUT COULD MOVE EAST SOME AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
GET MORE PRONOUNCED THURSDAY.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOWER CIGS WEST OF
DVL THRU 18Z THU.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 172135
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
335 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEIR
IMPACTS ON TEMPS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WILL KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH FRIDAY.

CURRENT CLEAR SKY WILL MAKE FOR A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH IDEAL RADITONAL COOLING SET UP. THE FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TEMPERED OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS MIXING INCREASES WITH
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL RH FIELDS
INDICATE THE WESTERN THIRD OF CWFA WILL HAVE OVERCAST SKIES BY 12Z
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE WEAK 500MB TROUGH TRACK ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL KEEP SLIGHT -SN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AND NW MN AS SOUTH WINDS BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AS
PWATS REACH THREE TO FOUR TENTHS. HOWEVER LIFT IS UNIMPRESSIVE
WITHIN THE COLUMN. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS
COLUMN WARMS WITH MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW ESCORTING IN DWPTS INTO THE
MID 20S. MAY SEE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REINFORCED GIVEN THE COLD
SFC AND MOIST LOW LAYER.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK A 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER
MICHIGAN.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WEST OF THE
LOW OVER OUR AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.  ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR EAST...BUT OVERALL LOOKS
CLOUDY...WINDY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OVERALL
MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY IN THE RRV/ERN ND AFTER
00Z WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE VALLEY GOES LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.   THERE IS ONE PATCH OF MID CLOUD
TVF-FSE AREA MOVING WEST AND IT MAY MAKE IT TO GFK AT MID AFTN FOR A
FEW HOURS BUT ALSO MAY JUST DISSIPATE.  THE MVFR CIGS IN WRN ND WILL
STAY OUT IN THAT AREA  BUT COULD MOVE EAST SOME AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
GET MORE PRONOUNCED THURSDAY.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOWER CIGS WEST OF
DVL THRU 18Z THU.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 172135
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
335 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEIR
IMPACTS ON TEMPS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WILL KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH FRIDAY.

CURRENT CLEAR SKY WILL MAKE FOR A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH IDEAL RADITONAL COOLING SET UP. THE FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TEMPERED OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS MIXING INCREASES WITH
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL RH FIELDS
INDICATE THE WESTERN THIRD OF CWFA WILL HAVE OVERCAST SKIES BY 12Z
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE WEAK 500MB TROUGH TRACK ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL KEEP SLIGHT -SN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AND NW MN AS SOUTH WINDS BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AS
PWATS REACH THREE TO FOUR TENTHS. HOWEVER LIFT IS UNIMPRESSIVE
WITHIN THE COLUMN. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS
COLUMN WARMS WITH MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW ESCORTING IN DWPTS INTO THE
MID 20S. MAY SEE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REINFORCED GIVEN THE COLD
SFC AND MOIST LOW LAYER.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK A 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER
MICHIGAN.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WEST OF THE
LOW OVER OUR AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.  ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR EAST...BUT OVERALL LOOKS
CLOUDY...WINDY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OVERALL
MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY IN THE RRV/ERN ND AFTER
00Z WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE VALLEY GOES LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.   THERE IS ONE PATCH OF MID CLOUD
TVF-FSE AREA MOVING WEST AND IT MAY MAKE IT TO GFK AT MID AFTN FOR A
FEW HOURS BUT ALSO MAY JUST DISSIPATE.  THE MVFR CIGS IN WRN ND WILL
STAY OUT IN THAT AREA  BUT COULD MOVE EAST SOME AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
GET MORE PRONOUNCED THURSDAY.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOWER CIGS WEST OF
DVL THRU 18Z THU.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 172135
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
335 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEIR
IMPACTS ON TEMPS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WILL KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH FRIDAY.

CURRENT CLEAR SKY WILL MAKE FOR A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH IDEAL RADITONAL COOLING SET UP. THE FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TEMPERED OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS MIXING INCREASES WITH
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL RH FIELDS
INDICATE THE WESTERN THIRD OF CWFA WILL HAVE OVERCAST SKIES BY 12Z
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE WEAK 500MB TROUGH TRACK ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL KEEP SLIGHT -SN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AND NW MN AS SOUTH WINDS BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AS
PWATS REACH THREE TO FOUR TENTHS. HOWEVER LIFT IS UNIMPRESSIVE
WITHIN THE COLUMN. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS
COLUMN WARMS WITH MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW ESCORTING IN DWPTS INTO THE
MID 20S. MAY SEE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REINFORCED GIVEN THE COLD
SFC AND MOIST LOW LAYER.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK A 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER
MICHIGAN.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WEST OF THE
LOW OVER OUR AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.  ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR EAST...BUT OVERALL LOOKS
CLOUDY...WINDY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OVERALL
MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY IN THE RRV/ERN ND AFTER
00Z WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE VALLEY GOES LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.   THERE IS ONE PATCH OF MID CLOUD
TVF-FSE AREA MOVING WEST AND IT MAY MAKE IT TO GFK AT MID AFTN FOR A
FEW HOURS BUT ALSO MAY JUST DISSIPATE.  THE MVFR CIGS IN WRN ND WILL
STAY OUT IN THAT AREA  BUT COULD MOVE EAST SOME AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
GET MORE PRONOUNCED THURSDAY.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOWER CIGS WEST OF
DVL THRU 18Z THU.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 171848
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1248 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NE ND GIVING THE CLEAR SKIES TO MOST OF THE AREA WITH MID
CLOUDS DIMINISHING ACROSS NW MN. TEMPERATURES ARE RESPONDING WELL
TO THE FULL SUN...EVEN AT ITS LOW ELEVATION...WITH THE LACK OF
SNOW PACK...AND WILL TWEAK THEM UP A TOUCH FOR THE AFTN MAXES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
PLAINS TODAY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS MOVING IN BEHIND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM CANADA INTO THE
CWA. CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND WILL HAVE TO
WATCH IF THEY PUSH FURTHER WEST. THINK THAT MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE VALLEY TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT THINK THAT THEY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE RAP HAS RH VALUES DECREASING A BIT AS WE HEAD
INTO THE DAY. KEPT EAST OF THE RED RIVER IN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY
RANGE. TEMPS THIS MORNING IN THE WEST HAVE DROPPED BELOW ZERO
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN TO GET
BACK INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...BUT
NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THE SFC HIGH
WILL START TO MOVE EAST IN RESPONSE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING. AT THIS POINT THINK THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL AGAIN SEE
CLEAR SKIES BUT SOME MIXING FROM WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE ZERO
WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND BE NEAR 10 DEGREES. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THURSDAY AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS MOISTURE RETURN PICKS UP.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION SO TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO RETURN TO THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE NOT OVERLY
HIGH AND LIFT IS PRETTY WEAK. MODELS ALL PUT OUT VERY MINIMAL QPF
BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. KEPT SOME LOW POPS
GOING FRIDAY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY
IN THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEATHER OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS MOST OF THE JET ENERGY STAYS TO THE
SOUTH. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE AND
INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A SLOW WARMING TREND...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE ON
MONDAY AS A WEAK PACIFIC WAVE CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY IN THE RRV/ERN ND AFTER
00Z WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE VALLEY GOES LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.   THERE IS ONE PATCH OF MID CLOUD
TVF-FSE AREA MOVING WEST AND IT MAY MAKE IT TO GFK AT MID AFTN FOR A
FEW HOURS BUT ALSO MAY JUST DISSIPATE.  THE MVFR CIGS IN WRN ND WILL
STAY OUT IN THAT AREA  BUT COULD MOVE EAST SOME AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
GET MORE PRONOUNCED THURSDAY.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOWER CIGS WEST OF
DVL THRU 18Z THU.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 171848
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1248 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NE ND GIVING THE CLEAR SKIES TO MOST OF THE AREA WITH MID
CLOUDS DIMINISHING ACROSS NW MN. TEMPERATURES ARE RESPONDING WELL
TO THE FULL SUN...EVEN AT ITS LOW ELEVATION...WITH THE LACK OF
SNOW PACK...AND WILL TWEAK THEM UP A TOUCH FOR THE AFTN MAXES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
PLAINS TODAY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS MOVING IN BEHIND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM CANADA INTO THE
CWA. CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND WILL HAVE TO
WATCH IF THEY PUSH FURTHER WEST. THINK THAT MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE VALLEY TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT THINK THAT THEY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE RAP HAS RH VALUES DECREASING A BIT AS WE HEAD
INTO THE DAY. KEPT EAST OF THE RED RIVER IN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY
RANGE. TEMPS THIS MORNING IN THE WEST HAVE DROPPED BELOW ZERO
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN TO GET
BACK INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...BUT
NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THE SFC HIGH
WILL START TO MOVE EAST IN RESPONSE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING. AT THIS POINT THINK THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL AGAIN SEE
CLEAR SKIES BUT SOME MIXING FROM WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE ZERO
WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND BE NEAR 10 DEGREES. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THURSDAY AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS MOISTURE RETURN PICKS UP.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION SO TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO RETURN TO THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE NOT OVERLY
HIGH AND LIFT IS PRETTY WEAK. MODELS ALL PUT OUT VERY MINIMAL QPF
BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. KEPT SOME LOW POPS
GOING FRIDAY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY
IN THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEATHER OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS MOST OF THE JET ENERGY STAYS TO THE
SOUTH. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE AND
INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A SLOW WARMING TREND...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE ON
MONDAY AS A WEAK PACIFIC WAVE CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY IN THE RRV/ERN ND AFTER
00Z WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE VALLEY GOES LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.   THERE IS ONE PATCH OF MID CLOUD
TVF-FSE AREA MOVING WEST AND IT MAY MAKE IT TO GFK AT MID AFTN FOR A
FEW HOURS BUT ALSO MAY JUST DISSIPATE.  THE MVFR CIGS IN WRN ND WILL
STAY OUT IN THAT AREA  BUT COULD MOVE EAST SOME AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
GET MORE PRONOUNCED THURSDAY.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOWER CIGS WEST OF
DVL THRU 18Z THU.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KBIS 171821
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1221 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

EASTERN EDGE OF BROAD CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA HAS BEEN DOING SOME ERODING...THOUGH SOME AREAS THAT ERODED
HAD QUICK RE-DEVELOPMENT. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AS EXPECT
ANY BREAKS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO FILL BACK IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 838 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUES OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
STATE AND HAS BEEN TRYING TO BUILD A LITTLE TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING. FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED THE EASTERN EDGE A BIT
WITH CURRENT TRENDS. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON WHETHER THE CLOUD
COVER WILL RETREAT SOME LATER TODAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
CONSISTENCY SINCE THIS HAS NOT BUDGED MUCH FOR THE PAST DAY.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES MADE. BLENDED IN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE CHALLENGE TODAY IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH FORECASTING THE
MOVEMENT OF A DISTINCT/SHARP DELINEATION OF CLOUDS/NO
CLOUDS...ALIGNED FAIRLY CLOSE TO AND ALONG HIGHWAY 83 THIS
MORNING. A SOLID OVERCAST WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES DOMINATE ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
EXTENDING EAST OF THIS LINE. TEMPERATURES DEPENDENT ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE TODAY/TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT INTO EASTERN MONTANA THIS
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH THE STRATUS LINE NUDGING A BIT FARTHER
EAST...NOW INTO MINOT AND LINTON AGAIN. THE HRRR/RAP13/NAM/GFS
925MB RH TREND SHOWS NEARLY A STATIONARY SITUATION WITH THE STRATUS
DECK DURING THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR ALSO HAS PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO
LOWER THIS MORNING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH 18Z. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ISENTROPIC LIFT PER NAM
285K PRESSURE SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A SIGHT CHC MENTION OF LIGHT
SNOW...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING LIMITED AMOUNTS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENCIES
OF BETWEEN ONE AND TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE CLOUDS
REMAIN IN-TACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WEST WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES...AND MOSTLY SUNNY EAST CENTRAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER TO MID TEENS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRANSITIONING INTO A
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS
THE LONG TERM.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...FAVORING HIGHS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THEREAFTER...ENERGY COMING ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL IMPACTS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO
SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 171821
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1221 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

EASTERN EDGE OF BROAD CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA HAS BEEN DOING SOME ERODING...THOUGH SOME AREAS THAT ERODED
HAD QUICK RE-DEVELOPMENT. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AS EXPECT
ANY BREAKS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO FILL BACK IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 838 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUES OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
STATE AND HAS BEEN TRYING TO BUILD A LITTLE TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING. FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED THE EASTERN EDGE A BIT
WITH CURRENT TRENDS. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON WHETHER THE CLOUD
COVER WILL RETREAT SOME LATER TODAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
CONSISTENCY SINCE THIS HAS NOT BUDGED MUCH FOR THE PAST DAY.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES MADE. BLENDED IN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE CHALLENGE TODAY IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH FORECASTING THE
MOVEMENT OF A DISTINCT/SHARP DELINEATION OF CLOUDS/NO
CLOUDS...ALIGNED FAIRLY CLOSE TO AND ALONG HIGHWAY 83 THIS
MORNING. A SOLID OVERCAST WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES DOMINATE ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
EXTENDING EAST OF THIS LINE. TEMPERATURES DEPENDENT ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE TODAY/TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT INTO EASTERN MONTANA THIS
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH THE STRATUS LINE NUDGING A BIT FARTHER
EAST...NOW INTO MINOT AND LINTON AGAIN. THE HRRR/RAP13/NAM/GFS
925MB RH TREND SHOWS NEARLY A STATIONARY SITUATION WITH THE STRATUS
DECK DURING THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR ALSO HAS PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO
LOWER THIS MORNING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH 18Z. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ISENTROPIC LIFT PER NAM
285K PRESSURE SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A SIGHT CHC MENTION OF LIGHT
SNOW...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING LIMITED AMOUNTS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENCIES
OF BETWEEN ONE AND TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE CLOUDS
REMAIN IN-TACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WEST WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES...AND MOSTLY SUNNY EAST CENTRAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER TO MID TEENS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRANSITIONING INTO A
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS
THE LONG TERM.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...FAVORING HIGHS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THEREAFTER...ENERGY COMING ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL IMPACTS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO
SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 171547
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED 7000FT CLOUD DECK SWING SOUTH ACROSS NW MN TODAY. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR IN THE VALLEY AND WEST WITH
TEMPS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COOL WITH LACK
OF SNOW COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
PLAINS TODAY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS MOVING IN BEHIND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM CANADA INTO THE
CWA. CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND WILL HAVE TO
WATCH IF THEY PUSH FURTHER WEST. THINK THAT MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE VALLEY TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT THINK THAT THEY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE RAP HAS RH VALUES DECREASING A BIT AS WE HEAD
INTO THE DAY. KEPT EAST OF THE RED RIVER IN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY
RANGE. TEMPS THIS MORNING IN THE WEST HAVE DROPPED BELOW ZERO
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN TO GET
BACK INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...BUT
NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THE SFC HIGH
WILL START TO MOVE EAST IN RESPONSE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING. AT THIS POINT THINK THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL AGAIN SEE
CLEAR SKIES BUT SOME MIXING FROM WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE ZERO
WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND BE NEAR 10 DEGREES. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THURSDAY AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS MOISTURE RETURN PICKS UP.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION SO TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO RETURN TO THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE NOT OVERLY
HIGH AND LIFT IS PRETTY WEAK. MODELS ALL PUT OUT VERY MINIMAL QPF
BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. KEPT SOME LOW POPS
GOING FRIDAY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY
IN THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEATHER OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS MOST OF THE JET ENERGY STAYS TO THE
SOUTH. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE AND
INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A SLOW WARMING TREND...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE ON
MONDAY AS A WEAK PACIFIC WAVE CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR CIGS AND A FEW FLURRIES CONTINUE AT KBJI WITH THE REST OF THE
CWA SEEING CLEAR SKIES. THINK THAT KBJI SHOULD RECOVER TO MVFR BY
MID MORNING AND THEN SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW 10 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 171547
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED 7000FT CLOUD DECK SWING SOUTH ACROSS NW MN TODAY. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR IN THE VALLEY AND WEST WITH
TEMPS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COOL WITH LACK
OF SNOW COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
PLAINS TODAY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS MOVING IN BEHIND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM CANADA INTO THE
CWA. CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND WILL HAVE TO
WATCH IF THEY PUSH FURTHER WEST. THINK THAT MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE VALLEY TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT THINK THAT THEY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE RAP HAS RH VALUES DECREASING A BIT AS WE HEAD
INTO THE DAY. KEPT EAST OF THE RED RIVER IN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY
RANGE. TEMPS THIS MORNING IN THE WEST HAVE DROPPED BELOW ZERO
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN TO GET
BACK INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...BUT
NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THE SFC HIGH
WILL START TO MOVE EAST IN RESPONSE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING. AT THIS POINT THINK THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL AGAIN SEE
CLEAR SKIES BUT SOME MIXING FROM WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE ZERO
WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND BE NEAR 10 DEGREES. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THURSDAY AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS MOISTURE RETURN PICKS UP.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION SO TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO RETURN TO THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE NOT OVERLY
HIGH AND LIFT IS PRETTY WEAK. MODELS ALL PUT OUT VERY MINIMAL QPF
BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. KEPT SOME LOW POPS
GOING FRIDAY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY
IN THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEATHER OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS MOST OF THE JET ENERGY STAYS TO THE
SOUTH. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE AND
INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A SLOW WARMING TREND...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE ON
MONDAY AS A WEAK PACIFIC WAVE CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR CIGS AND A FEW FLURRIES CONTINUE AT KBJI WITH THE REST OF THE
CWA SEEING CLEAR SKIES. THINK THAT KBJI SHOULD RECOVER TO MVFR BY
MID MORNING AND THEN SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW 10 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 171547
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED 7000FT CLOUD DECK SWING SOUTH ACROSS NW MN TODAY. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR IN THE VALLEY AND WEST WITH
TEMPS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COOL WITH LACK
OF SNOW COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
PLAINS TODAY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS MOVING IN BEHIND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM CANADA INTO THE
CWA. CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND WILL HAVE TO
WATCH IF THEY PUSH FURTHER WEST. THINK THAT MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE VALLEY TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT THINK THAT THEY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE RAP HAS RH VALUES DECREASING A BIT AS WE HEAD
INTO THE DAY. KEPT EAST OF THE RED RIVER IN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY
RANGE. TEMPS THIS MORNING IN THE WEST HAVE DROPPED BELOW ZERO
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN TO GET
BACK INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...BUT
NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THE SFC HIGH
WILL START TO MOVE EAST IN RESPONSE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING. AT THIS POINT THINK THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL AGAIN SEE
CLEAR SKIES BUT SOME MIXING FROM WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE ZERO
WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND BE NEAR 10 DEGREES. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THURSDAY AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS MOISTURE RETURN PICKS UP.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION SO TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO RETURN TO THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE NOT OVERLY
HIGH AND LIFT IS PRETTY WEAK. MODELS ALL PUT OUT VERY MINIMAL QPF
BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. KEPT SOME LOW POPS
GOING FRIDAY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY
IN THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEATHER OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS MOST OF THE JET ENERGY STAYS TO THE
SOUTH. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE AND
INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A SLOW WARMING TREND...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE ON
MONDAY AS A WEAK PACIFIC WAVE CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR CIGS AND A FEW FLURRIES CONTINUE AT KBJI WITH THE REST OF THE
CWA SEEING CLEAR SKIES. THINK THAT KBJI SHOULD RECOVER TO MVFR BY
MID MORNING AND THEN SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW 10 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 171547
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED 7000FT CLOUD DECK SWING SOUTH ACROSS NW MN TODAY. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR IN THE VALLEY AND WEST WITH
TEMPS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COOL WITH LACK
OF SNOW COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
PLAINS TODAY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS MOVING IN BEHIND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM CANADA INTO THE
CWA. CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND WILL HAVE TO
WATCH IF THEY PUSH FURTHER WEST. THINK THAT MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE VALLEY TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT THINK THAT THEY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE RAP HAS RH VALUES DECREASING A BIT AS WE HEAD
INTO THE DAY. KEPT EAST OF THE RED RIVER IN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY
RANGE. TEMPS THIS MORNING IN THE WEST HAVE DROPPED BELOW ZERO
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN TO GET
BACK INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...BUT
NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THE SFC HIGH
WILL START TO MOVE EAST IN RESPONSE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING. AT THIS POINT THINK THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL AGAIN SEE
CLEAR SKIES BUT SOME MIXING FROM WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE ZERO
WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND BE NEAR 10 DEGREES. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THURSDAY AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS MOISTURE RETURN PICKS UP.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION SO TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO RETURN TO THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE NOT OVERLY
HIGH AND LIFT IS PRETTY WEAK. MODELS ALL PUT OUT VERY MINIMAL QPF
BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. KEPT SOME LOW POPS
GOING FRIDAY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY
IN THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEATHER OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS MOST OF THE JET ENERGY STAYS TO THE
SOUTH. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE AND
INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A SLOW WARMING TREND...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE ON
MONDAY AS A WEAK PACIFIC WAVE CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR CIGS AND A FEW FLURRIES CONTINUE AT KBJI WITH THE REST OF THE
CWA SEEING CLEAR SKIES. THINK THAT KBJI SHOULD RECOVER TO MVFR BY
MID MORNING AND THEN SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW 10 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 171547
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED 7000FT CLOUD DECK SWING SOUTH ACROSS NW MN TODAY. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR IN THE VALLEY AND WEST WITH
TEMPS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COOL WITH LACK
OF SNOW COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
PLAINS TODAY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS MOVING IN BEHIND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM CANADA INTO THE
CWA. CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND WILL HAVE TO
WATCH IF THEY PUSH FURTHER WEST. THINK THAT MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE VALLEY TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT THINK THAT THEY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE RAP HAS RH VALUES DECREASING A BIT AS WE HEAD
INTO THE DAY. KEPT EAST OF THE RED RIVER IN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY
RANGE. TEMPS THIS MORNING IN THE WEST HAVE DROPPED BELOW ZERO
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN TO GET
BACK INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...BUT
NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THE SFC HIGH
WILL START TO MOVE EAST IN RESPONSE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING. AT THIS POINT THINK THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL AGAIN SEE
CLEAR SKIES BUT SOME MIXING FROM WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE ZERO
WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND BE NEAR 10 DEGREES. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THURSDAY AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS MOISTURE RETURN PICKS UP.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION SO TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO RETURN TO THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE NOT OVERLY
HIGH AND LIFT IS PRETTY WEAK. MODELS ALL PUT OUT VERY MINIMAL QPF
BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. KEPT SOME LOW POPS
GOING FRIDAY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY
IN THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEATHER OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS MOST OF THE JET ENERGY STAYS TO THE
SOUTH. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE AND
INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A SLOW WARMING TREND...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE ON
MONDAY AS A WEAK PACIFIC WAVE CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR CIGS AND A FEW FLURRIES CONTINUE AT KBJI WITH THE REST OF THE
CWA SEEING CLEAR SKIES. THINK THAT KBJI SHOULD RECOVER TO MVFR BY
MID MORNING AND THEN SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW 10 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 171547
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED 7000FT CLOUD DECK SWING SOUTH ACROSS NW MN TODAY. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR IN THE VALLEY AND WEST WITH
TEMPS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COOL WITH LACK
OF SNOW COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
PLAINS TODAY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS MOVING IN BEHIND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM CANADA INTO THE
CWA. CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND WILL HAVE TO
WATCH IF THEY PUSH FURTHER WEST. THINK THAT MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE VALLEY TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT THINK THAT THEY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE RAP HAS RH VALUES DECREASING A BIT AS WE HEAD
INTO THE DAY. KEPT EAST OF THE RED RIVER IN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY
RANGE. TEMPS THIS MORNING IN THE WEST HAVE DROPPED BELOW ZERO
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN TO GET
BACK INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...BUT
NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THE SFC HIGH
WILL START TO MOVE EAST IN RESPONSE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING. AT THIS POINT THINK THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL AGAIN SEE
CLEAR SKIES BUT SOME MIXING FROM WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE ZERO
WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND BE NEAR 10 DEGREES. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THURSDAY AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS MOISTURE RETURN PICKS UP.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION SO TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO RETURN TO THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE NOT OVERLY
HIGH AND LIFT IS PRETTY WEAK. MODELS ALL PUT OUT VERY MINIMAL QPF
BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. KEPT SOME LOW POPS
GOING FRIDAY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY
IN THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEATHER OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS MOST OF THE JET ENERGY STAYS TO THE
SOUTH. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE AND
INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A SLOW WARMING TREND...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE ON
MONDAY AS A WEAK PACIFIC WAVE CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR CIGS AND A FEW FLURRIES CONTINUE AT KBJI WITH THE REST OF THE
CWA SEEING CLEAR SKIES. THINK THAT KBJI SHOULD RECOVER TO MVFR BY
MID MORNING AND THEN SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW 10 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 171547
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED 7000FT CLOUD DECK SWING SOUTH ACROSS NW MN TODAY. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR IN THE VALLEY AND WEST WITH
TEMPS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COOL WITH LACK
OF SNOW COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
PLAINS TODAY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS MOVING IN BEHIND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM CANADA INTO THE
CWA. CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND WILL HAVE TO
WATCH IF THEY PUSH FURTHER WEST. THINK THAT MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE VALLEY TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT THINK THAT THEY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE RAP HAS RH VALUES DECREASING A BIT AS WE HEAD
INTO THE DAY. KEPT EAST OF THE RED RIVER IN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY
RANGE. TEMPS THIS MORNING IN THE WEST HAVE DROPPED BELOW ZERO
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN TO GET
BACK INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...BUT
NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THE SFC HIGH
WILL START TO MOVE EAST IN RESPONSE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING. AT THIS POINT THINK THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL AGAIN SEE
CLEAR SKIES BUT SOME MIXING FROM WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE ZERO
WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND BE NEAR 10 DEGREES. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THURSDAY AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS MOISTURE RETURN PICKS UP.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION SO TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO RETURN TO THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE NOT OVERLY
HIGH AND LIFT IS PRETTY WEAK. MODELS ALL PUT OUT VERY MINIMAL QPF
BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. KEPT SOME LOW POPS
GOING FRIDAY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY
IN THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEATHER OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS MOST OF THE JET ENERGY STAYS TO THE
SOUTH. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE AND
INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A SLOW WARMING TREND...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE ON
MONDAY AS A WEAK PACIFIC WAVE CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR CIGS AND A FEW FLURRIES CONTINUE AT KBJI WITH THE REST OF THE
CWA SEEING CLEAR SKIES. THINK THAT KBJI SHOULD RECOVER TO MVFR BY
MID MORNING AND THEN SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW 10 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 171547
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED 7000FT CLOUD DECK SWING SOUTH ACROSS NW MN TODAY. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR IN THE VALLEY AND WEST WITH
TEMPS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COOL WITH LACK
OF SNOW COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
PLAINS TODAY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS MOVING IN BEHIND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM CANADA INTO THE
CWA. CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND WILL HAVE TO
WATCH IF THEY PUSH FURTHER WEST. THINK THAT MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE VALLEY TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT THINK THAT THEY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE RAP HAS RH VALUES DECREASING A BIT AS WE HEAD
INTO THE DAY. KEPT EAST OF THE RED RIVER IN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY
RANGE. TEMPS THIS MORNING IN THE WEST HAVE DROPPED BELOW ZERO
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN TO GET
BACK INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...BUT
NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THE SFC HIGH
WILL START TO MOVE EAST IN RESPONSE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING. AT THIS POINT THINK THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL AGAIN SEE
CLEAR SKIES BUT SOME MIXING FROM WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE ZERO
WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND BE NEAR 10 DEGREES. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THURSDAY AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS MOISTURE RETURN PICKS UP.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION SO TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO RETURN TO THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE NOT OVERLY
HIGH AND LIFT IS PRETTY WEAK. MODELS ALL PUT OUT VERY MINIMAL QPF
BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. KEPT SOME LOW POPS
GOING FRIDAY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY
IN THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEATHER OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS MOST OF THE JET ENERGY STAYS TO THE
SOUTH. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE AND
INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A SLOW WARMING TREND...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE ON
MONDAY AS A WEAK PACIFIC WAVE CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR CIGS AND A FEW FLURRIES CONTINUE AT KBJI WITH THE REST OF THE
CWA SEEING CLEAR SKIES. THINK THAT KBJI SHOULD RECOVER TO MVFR BY
MID MORNING AND THEN SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW 10 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 171547
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED 7000FT CLOUD DECK SWING SOUTH ACROSS NW MN TODAY. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR IN THE VALLEY AND WEST WITH
TEMPS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COOL WITH LACK
OF SNOW COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
PLAINS TODAY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS MOVING IN BEHIND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM CANADA INTO THE
CWA. CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND WILL HAVE TO
WATCH IF THEY PUSH FURTHER WEST. THINK THAT MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE VALLEY TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT THINK THAT THEY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE RAP HAS RH VALUES DECREASING A BIT AS WE HEAD
INTO THE DAY. KEPT EAST OF THE RED RIVER IN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY
RANGE. TEMPS THIS MORNING IN THE WEST HAVE DROPPED BELOW ZERO
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN TO GET
BACK INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...BUT
NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THE SFC HIGH
WILL START TO MOVE EAST IN RESPONSE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING. AT THIS POINT THINK THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL AGAIN SEE
CLEAR SKIES BUT SOME MIXING FROM WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE ZERO
WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND BE NEAR 10 DEGREES. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THURSDAY AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS MOISTURE RETURN PICKS UP.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION SO TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO RETURN TO THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE NOT OVERLY
HIGH AND LIFT IS PRETTY WEAK. MODELS ALL PUT OUT VERY MINIMAL QPF
BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. KEPT SOME LOW POPS
GOING FRIDAY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY
IN THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEATHER OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS MOST OF THE JET ENERGY STAYS TO THE
SOUTH. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE AND
INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A SLOW WARMING TREND...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE ON
MONDAY AS A WEAK PACIFIC WAVE CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR CIGS AND A FEW FLURRIES CONTINUE AT KBJI WITH THE REST OF THE
CWA SEEING CLEAR SKIES. THINK THAT KBJI SHOULD RECOVER TO MVFR BY
MID MORNING AND THEN SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW 10 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 171547
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED 7000FT CLOUD DECK SWING SOUTH ACROSS NW MN TODAY. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR IN THE VALLEY AND WEST WITH
TEMPS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COOL WITH LACK
OF SNOW COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
PLAINS TODAY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS MOVING IN BEHIND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM CANADA INTO THE
CWA. CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND WILL HAVE TO
WATCH IF THEY PUSH FURTHER WEST. THINK THAT MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE VALLEY TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT THINK THAT THEY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE RAP HAS RH VALUES DECREASING A BIT AS WE HEAD
INTO THE DAY. KEPT EAST OF THE RED RIVER IN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY
RANGE. TEMPS THIS MORNING IN THE WEST HAVE DROPPED BELOW ZERO
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN TO GET
BACK INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...BUT
NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THE SFC HIGH
WILL START TO MOVE EAST IN RESPONSE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING. AT THIS POINT THINK THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL AGAIN SEE
CLEAR SKIES BUT SOME MIXING FROM WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE ZERO
WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND BE NEAR 10 DEGREES. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THURSDAY AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS MOISTURE RETURN PICKS UP.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION SO TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO RETURN TO THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE NOT OVERLY
HIGH AND LIFT IS PRETTY WEAK. MODELS ALL PUT OUT VERY MINIMAL QPF
BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. KEPT SOME LOW POPS
GOING FRIDAY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY
IN THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEATHER OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS MOST OF THE JET ENERGY STAYS TO THE
SOUTH. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE AND
INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A SLOW WARMING TREND...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE ON
MONDAY AS A WEAK PACIFIC WAVE CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR CIGS AND A FEW FLURRIES CONTINUE AT KBJI WITH THE REST OF THE
CWA SEEING CLEAR SKIES. THINK THAT KBJI SHOULD RECOVER TO MVFR BY
MID MORNING AND THEN SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW 10 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KBIS 171447
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
847 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUES OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
STATE AND HAS BEEN TRYING TO BUILD A LITTLE TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING. FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED THE EASTERN EDGE A BIT
WITH CURRENT TRENDS. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON WHETHER THE CLOUD
COVER WILL RETREAT SOME LATER TODAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
CONSISTENCY SINCE THIS HAS NOT BUDGED MUCH FOR THE PAST DAY.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES MADE. BLENDED IN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE CHALLENGE TODAY IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH FORECASTING THE
MOVEMENT OF A DISTINCT/SHARP DELINEATION OF CLOUDS/NO
CLOUDS...ALIGNED FAIRLY CLOSE TO AND ALONG HIGHWAY 83 THIS
MORNING. A SOLID OVERCAST WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES DOMINATE ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
EXTENDING EAST OF THIS LINE. TEMPERATURES DEPENDENT ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE TODAY/TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT INTO EASTERN MONTANA THIS
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH THE STRATUS LINE NUDGING A BIT FARTHER
EAST...NOW INTO MINOT AND LINTON AGAIN. THE HRRR/RAP13/NAM/GFS
925MB RH TREND SHOWS NEARLY A STATIONARY SITUATION WITH THE STRATUS
DECK DURING THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR ALSO HAS PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO
LOWER THIS MORNING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH 18Z. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ISENTROPIC LIFT PER NAM
285K PRESSURE SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A SIGHT CHC MENTION OF LIGHT
SNOW...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING LIMITED AMOUNTS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENCIES
OF BETWEEN ONE AND TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE CLOUDS
REMAIN IN-TACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WEST WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES...AND MOSTLY SUNNY EAST CENTRAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER TO MID TEENS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRANSITIONING INTO A
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS
THE LONG TERM.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...FAVORING HIGHS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THEREAFTER...ENERGY COMING ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL IMPACTS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD/SOLID MVFR CIGS AT KISN/KBIS NEXT 24HR. IFR CIGS AND AT
KDIK THROUGH 01Z THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG AT THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 18Z. A VCFG HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT KDIK. KMOT HAS BEEN
WOBBLING ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS LINE...AND IT APPEARS KMOT WILL
JUST BARELY REMAIN WITHIN THE MVFR STRATUS DECK. KJMS WILL CONTINUE
WITH VFR CIGS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKY UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MVFR/IFR CIGS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 171447
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
847 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUES OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
STATE AND HAS BEEN TRYING TO BUILD A LITTLE TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING. FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED THE EASTERN EDGE A BIT
WITH CURRENT TRENDS. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON WHETHER THE CLOUD
COVER WILL RETREAT SOME LATER TODAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
CONSISTENCY SINCE THIS HAS NOT BUDGED MUCH FOR THE PAST DAY.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES MADE. BLENDED IN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE CHALLENGE TODAY IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH FORECASTING THE
MOVEMENT OF A DISTINCT/SHARP DELINEATION OF CLOUDS/NO
CLOUDS...ALIGNED FAIRLY CLOSE TO AND ALONG HIGHWAY 83 THIS
MORNING. A SOLID OVERCAST WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES DOMINATE ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
EXTENDING EAST OF THIS LINE. TEMPERATURES DEPENDENT ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE TODAY/TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT INTO EASTERN MONTANA THIS
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH THE STRATUS LINE NUDGING A BIT FARTHER
EAST...NOW INTO MINOT AND LINTON AGAIN. THE HRRR/RAP13/NAM/GFS
925MB RH TREND SHOWS NEARLY A STATIONARY SITUATION WITH THE STRATUS
DECK DURING THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR ALSO HAS PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO
LOWER THIS MORNING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH 18Z. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ISENTROPIC LIFT PER NAM
285K PRESSURE SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A SIGHT CHC MENTION OF LIGHT
SNOW...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING LIMITED AMOUNTS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENCIES
OF BETWEEN ONE AND TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE CLOUDS
REMAIN IN-TACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WEST WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES...AND MOSTLY SUNNY EAST CENTRAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER TO MID TEENS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRANSITIONING INTO A
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS
THE LONG TERM.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...FAVORING HIGHS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THEREAFTER...ENERGY COMING ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL IMPACTS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD/SOLID MVFR CIGS AT KISN/KBIS NEXT 24HR. IFR CIGS AND AT
KDIK THROUGH 01Z THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG AT THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 18Z. A VCFG HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT KDIK. KMOT HAS BEEN
WOBBLING ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS LINE...AND IT APPEARS KMOT WILL
JUST BARELY REMAIN WITHIN THE MVFR STRATUS DECK. KJMS WILL CONTINUE
WITH VFR CIGS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKY UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MVFR/IFR CIGS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 171257
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
657 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES MADE. BLENDED IN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE CHALLENGE TODAY IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH FORECASTING THE
MOVEMENT OF A DISTINCT/SHARP DELINEATION OF CLOUDS/NO
CLOUDS...ALIGNED FAIRLY CLOSE TO AND ALONG HIGHWAY 83 THIS
MORNING. A SOLID OVERCAST WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES DOMINATE ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
EXTENDING EAST OF THIS LINE. TEMPERATURES DEPENDENT ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE TODAY/TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT INTO EASTERN MONTANA THIS
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH THE STRATUS LINE NUDGING A BIT FARTHER
EAST...NOW INTO MINOT AND LINTON AGAIN. THE HRRR/RAP13/NAM/GFS
925MB RH TREND SHOWS NEARLY A STATIONARY SITUATION WITH THE STRATUS
DECK DURING THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR ALSO HAS PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO
LOWER THIS MORNING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH 18Z. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ISENTROPIC LIFT PER NAM
285K PRESSURE SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A SIGHT CHC MENTION OF LIGHT
SNOW...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING LIMITED AMOUNTS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENCIES
OF BETWEEN ONE AND TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE CLOUDS
REMAIN IN-TACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WEST WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES...AND MOSTLY SUNNY EAST CENTRAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER TO MID TEENS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRANSITIONING INTO A
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS
THE LONG TERM.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...FAVORING HIGHS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THEREAFTER...ENERGY COMING ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL IMPACTS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD/SOLID MVFR CIGS AT KISN/KBIS NEXT 24HR. IFR CIGS AND AT
KDIK THROUGH 01Z THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG AT THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 18Z. A VCFG HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT KDIK. KMOT HAS BEEN
WOBBLING ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS LINE...AND IT APPEARS KMOT WILL
JUST BARELY REMAIN WITHIN THE MVFR STRATUS DECK. KJMS WILL CONTINUE
WITH VFR CIGS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKY UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 171257
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
657 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES MADE. BLENDED IN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE CHALLENGE TODAY IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH FORECASTING THE
MOVEMENT OF A DISTINCT/SHARP DELINEATION OF CLOUDS/NO
CLOUDS...ALIGNED FAIRLY CLOSE TO AND ALONG HIGHWAY 83 THIS
MORNING. A SOLID OVERCAST WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES DOMINATE ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
EXTENDING EAST OF THIS LINE. TEMPERATURES DEPENDENT ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE TODAY/TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT INTO EASTERN MONTANA THIS
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH THE STRATUS LINE NUDGING A BIT FARTHER
EAST...NOW INTO MINOT AND LINTON AGAIN. THE HRRR/RAP13/NAM/GFS
925MB RH TREND SHOWS NEARLY A STATIONARY SITUATION WITH THE STRATUS
DECK DURING THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR ALSO HAS PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO
LOWER THIS MORNING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH 18Z. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ISENTROPIC LIFT PER NAM
285K PRESSURE SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A SIGHT CHC MENTION OF LIGHT
SNOW...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING LIMITED AMOUNTS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENCIES
OF BETWEEN ONE AND TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE CLOUDS
REMAIN IN-TACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WEST WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES...AND MOSTLY SUNNY EAST CENTRAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER TO MID TEENS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRANSITIONING INTO A
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS
THE LONG TERM.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...FAVORING HIGHS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THEREAFTER...ENERGY COMING ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL IMPACTS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD/SOLID MVFR CIGS AT KISN/KBIS NEXT 24HR. IFR CIGS AND AT
KDIK THROUGH 01Z THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG AT THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 18Z. A VCFG HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT KDIK. KMOT HAS BEEN
WOBBLING ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS LINE...AND IT APPEARS KMOT WILL
JUST BARELY REMAIN WITHIN THE MVFR STRATUS DECK. KJMS WILL CONTINUE
WITH VFR CIGS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKY UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 171257
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
657 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES MADE. BLENDED IN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE CHALLENGE TODAY IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH FORECASTING THE
MOVEMENT OF A DISTINCT/SHARP DELINEATION OF CLOUDS/NO
CLOUDS...ALIGNED FAIRLY CLOSE TO AND ALONG HIGHWAY 83 THIS
MORNING. A SOLID OVERCAST WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES DOMINATE ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
EXTENDING EAST OF THIS LINE. TEMPERATURES DEPENDENT ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE TODAY/TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT INTO EASTERN MONTANA THIS
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH THE STRATUS LINE NUDGING A BIT FARTHER
EAST...NOW INTO MINOT AND LINTON AGAIN. THE HRRR/RAP13/NAM/GFS
925MB RH TREND SHOWS NEARLY A STATIONARY SITUATION WITH THE STRATUS
DECK DURING THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR ALSO HAS PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO
LOWER THIS MORNING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH 18Z. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ISENTROPIC LIFT PER NAM
285K PRESSURE SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A SIGHT CHC MENTION OF LIGHT
SNOW...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING LIMITED AMOUNTS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENCIES
OF BETWEEN ONE AND TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE CLOUDS
REMAIN IN-TACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WEST WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES...AND MOSTLY SUNNY EAST CENTRAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER TO MID TEENS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRANSITIONING INTO A
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS
THE LONG TERM.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...FAVORING HIGHS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THEREAFTER...ENERGY COMING ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL IMPACTS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD/SOLID MVFR CIGS AT KISN/KBIS NEXT 24HR. IFR CIGS AND AT
KDIK THROUGH 01Z THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG AT THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 18Z. A VCFG HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT KDIK. KMOT HAS BEEN
WOBBLING ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS LINE...AND IT APPEARS KMOT WILL
JUST BARELY REMAIN WITHIN THE MVFR STRATUS DECK. KJMS WILL CONTINUE
WITH VFR CIGS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKY UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 171257
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
657 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES MADE. BLENDED IN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE CHALLENGE TODAY IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH FORECASTING THE
MOVEMENT OF A DISTINCT/SHARP DELINEATION OF CLOUDS/NO
CLOUDS...ALIGNED FAIRLY CLOSE TO AND ALONG HIGHWAY 83 THIS
MORNING. A SOLID OVERCAST WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES DOMINATE ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
EXTENDING EAST OF THIS LINE. TEMPERATURES DEPENDENT ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE TODAY/TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT INTO EASTERN MONTANA THIS
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH THE STRATUS LINE NUDGING A BIT FARTHER
EAST...NOW INTO MINOT AND LINTON AGAIN. THE HRRR/RAP13/NAM/GFS
925MB RH TREND SHOWS NEARLY A STATIONARY SITUATION WITH THE STRATUS
DECK DURING THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR ALSO HAS PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO
LOWER THIS MORNING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH 18Z. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ISENTROPIC LIFT PER NAM
285K PRESSURE SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A SIGHT CHC MENTION OF LIGHT
SNOW...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING LIMITED AMOUNTS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENCIES
OF BETWEEN ONE AND TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE CLOUDS
REMAIN IN-TACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WEST WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES...AND MOSTLY SUNNY EAST CENTRAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER TO MID TEENS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRANSITIONING INTO A
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS
THE LONG TERM.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...FAVORING HIGHS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THEREAFTER...ENERGY COMING ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL IMPACTS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD/SOLID MVFR CIGS AT KISN/KBIS NEXT 24HR. IFR CIGS AND AT
KDIK THROUGH 01Z THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG AT THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 18Z. A VCFG HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT KDIK. KMOT HAS BEEN
WOBBLING ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS LINE...AND IT APPEARS KMOT WILL
JUST BARELY REMAIN WITHIN THE MVFR STRATUS DECK. KJMS WILL CONTINUE
WITH VFR CIGS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKY UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 171238
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER...AS THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS HAS STAYED
FURTHER EAST. THE RAP AND NAM BOTH HAVE THE HIGHER 925 TO 850 RH
VALUES MOVING WEST INTO THE VALLEY THIS MORNING...BUT DECREASE
THAT SATURATION. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUDS IN THE EAST ALONG
WITH A FLURRY MENTION IN THE KBJI MENTION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE WEST SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
PLAINS TODAY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS MOVING IN BEHIND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM CANADA INTO THE
CWA. CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND WILL HAVE TO
WATCH IF THEY PUSH FURTHER WEST. THINK THAT MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE VALLEY TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT THINK THAT THEY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE RAP HAS RH VALUES DECREASING A BIT AS WE HEAD
INTO THE DAY. KEPT EAST OF THE RED RIVER IN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY
RANGE. TEMPS THIS MORNING IN THE WEST HAVE DROPPED BELOW ZERO
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN TO GET
BACK INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WIL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...BUT
NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THE SFC HIGH
WILL START TO MOVE EAST IN RESPONSE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING. AT THIS POINT THINK THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL AGAIN SEE
CLEAR SKIES BUT SOME MIXING FROM WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE ZERO
WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND BE NEAR 10 DEGREES. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THURSDAY AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS MOISTURE RETURN PICKS UP.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION SO TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO RETURN TO THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE NOT OVERLY
HIGH AND LIFT IS PRETTY WEAK. MODELS ALL PUT OUT VERY MINIMAL QPF
BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. KEPT SOME LOW POPS
GOING FRIDAY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY
IN THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEATHER OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS MOST OF THE JET ENERGY STAYS TO THE
SOUTH. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE AND
INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A SLOW WARMING TREND...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE ON
MONDAY AS A WEAK PACIFIC WAVE CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR CIGS AND A FEW FLURRIES CONTINUE AT KBJI WITH THE REST OF THE
CWA SEEING CLEAR SKIES. THINK THAT KBJI SHOULD RECOVER TO MVFR BY
MID MORNING AND THEN SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 171238
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER...AS THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS HAS STAYED
FURTHER EAST. THE RAP AND NAM BOTH HAVE THE HIGHER 925 TO 850 RH
VALUES MOVING WEST INTO THE VALLEY THIS MORNING...BUT DECREASE
THAT SATURATION. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUDS IN THE EAST ALONG
WITH A FLURRY MENTION IN THE KBJI MENTION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE WEST SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
PLAINS TODAY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS MOVING IN BEHIND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM CANADA INTO THE
CWA. CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND WILL HAVE TO
WATCH IF THEY PUSH FURTHER WEST. THINK THAT MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE VALLEY TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT THINK THAT THEY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE RAP HAS RH VALUES DECREASING A BIT AS WE HEAD
INTO THE DAY. KEPT EAST OF THE RED RIVER IN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY
RANGE. TEMPS THIS MORNING IN THE WEST HAVE DROPPED BELOW ZERO
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN TO GET
BACK INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WIL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...BUT
NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THE SFC HIGH
WILL START TO MOVE EAST IN RESPONSE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING. AT THIS POINT THINK THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL AGAIN SEE
CLEAR SKIES BUT SOME MIXING FROM WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE ZERO
WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND BE NEAR 10 DEGREES. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THURSDAY AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS MOISTURE RETURN PICKS UP.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION SO TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO RETURN TO THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE NOT OVERLY
HIGH AND LIFT IS PRETTY WEAK. MODELS ALL PUT OUT VERY MINIMAL QPF
BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. KEPT SOME LOW POPS
GOING FRIDAY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY
IN THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEATHER OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS MOST OF THE JET ENERGY STAYS TO THE
SOUTH. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE AND
INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A SLOW WARMING TREND...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE ON
MONDAY AS A WEAK PACIFIC WAVE CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR CIGS AND A FEW FLURRIES CONTINUE AT KBJI WITH THE REST OF THE
CWA SEEING CLEAR SKIES. THINK THAT KBJI SHOULD RECOVER TO MVFR BY
MID MORNING AND THEN SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR






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