Latest:
 AFDBIS |  AFDFGF |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KBIS 210257
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
957 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

ALL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXPIRED OR CANCELLED. THE REMAINING
PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT IS THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RADARS ARE SHOWING A BAND OF
REFLECTIVITIES FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTH OF REGINA
SASKATCHEWAN. SURFACE OBS ARE RATHER SPARSE IN CANADA BUT NOTHING
SHOWING UP YET REACHING THE GROUND. WONDERING HOW THIS WILL HOLD
TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO MUCH DRIER AIR SITUATED OVER NORTH
DAKOTA. MESOSCALE MODELS AND NEW NAM ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION HOWEVER...VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BASICALLY BETWEEN WILLISTON AND MINOT...SOUTH TO JUST WEST OF
BISMARCK. UTILIZED A BLEND OF PREVIOUS POPS WITH THE NAM/RAP/HRRR
FOR PLACEMENT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL IN
THIS NARROW BAND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 910 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ALLOW WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. WILL TAKE A QUICK
LOOK AT 9 PM OBS SHORTLY TO EVALUATE RED FLAG WARNING...BUT EXPECT
WE WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL BEFORE 10 PM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO UPDATES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM. WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING
TO OVER 40 MPH IN MANY LOCATIONS AT 6 PM...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. RED FLAG WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM. IF WINDS DIMINISH AS PLANNED MAY BE
ABLE TO CANCEL BOTH A 9 PM...IF NOT A LITTLE BEFORE.

A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AS IT DROPS
THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RETURNS
NOTED ON CANADIAN RADARS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HIGHLIGHTED BY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

OTHERWISE...FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CUMULUS FIELDS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE DRY AXIS FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ARE EXPECTED TO FADE WITH SUNSET. THEREAFTER...A WEAK
IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
PROPAGATE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE 12
UTC AND INCOMING 18 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO RESULT FROM
NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FALLING AS LIGHT
SNOW. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE LONG TERM APPEARS RATHER COOL AND QUIET.

THROUGH MIDWEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
50S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

BY THURSDAY MODELS ARE DEPICTING A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE LONG TERM MODELS ENTERING THIS WEEKEND. IT DOES APPEAR THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
TIMING...LOCATION AND AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

LOW VFR CLOUDS BREAKING UP ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING
KJMS. BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO RE-ENTER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
CANADA IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUDS BUT MODELS ARE DEPICTING A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS BAND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS KBIS...
KMOT...KISN AND KDIK COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. MOST LIKELY KBIS IF ANY BASED ON LATEST
FORECASTS SO WE DO HAVE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KBIS FROM
09-12 UTC TUESDAY. LOW VFR CLOUDS COMING BACK INTO KJMS MAY LOWER
TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET AT
THIS TIME TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS AT KJMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY...

DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION TO BRING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

ON TUESDAY...CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...AYD





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KFGF 210230
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
930 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENST TO POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT... WITH MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD... MOVING EAST OF
THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD APPROACH AN
INCH OR SO ON GRASSY SURFACES FROM NORTHWEST MN INTO NORTHCENTRAL
MN. OTHERWSIE... WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
CENTRAL RRV FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BUT ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THERE
WILL BE SCANT. WIND GUSTS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING... BUT A LIGHT TO
MODERATE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF NORTHWEST
AND NORTHCENTRAL MN HAVE COOLED NEAR TO BELOW THE FREEZING PINT
NOW ...SO EXPECT PATCHY ICE DEVELOPING ON ROADWAYS AND WALKWAYS
AS WET PAVEMENT COOLS DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WHERE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ENDS
UP TONIGHT AND PCPN CHANCES UNDER THEM. AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE
WERE STILL EXTENSIVE CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE FA. TEMPS WERE IN THE
LOW 30S IN THE EAST AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE WEST. LOTS OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS SHOW BIG
FLAKES IN SPOTS BUT NOTHING OTHER THAN SOME WET ROADS. EARLIER
THIS MORNING THERE WERE SOME WHITE SPOTS IN GRASSY AREAS IN THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. AS TEMPS FALL A BIT TONIGHT THAT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN...BUT MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN IN AND OUT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AS IS AND LET THE
EVENING CREW EXPIRE IT AS NEED BE. TUE LOOKS WINDY AGAIN WITH THE
SNOW SHOWERS HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN FA. CURRENTLY HAVE THE
CLOUDS ALSO HANGING TOUGH ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY. THEREFORE
HIGHS SHOULD STAY A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN FA. THE GUSTY
WINDS FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED...SO ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE HOW COOL IT GETS TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR WED AND THU. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH BUT MORE IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. HIGHS BOTH DAYS REMAIN ON THE COLDER SIDE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS HAVE BECOME LESS AGREEABLE AS THE 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. THE GFS
AND GEM KEEP STEEL NW FLOW/SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF ESSENTIALLY INDICATES MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS AFFECTS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW WILL SIDE WITH THE
DRIER SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY START BELOW NORMAL...AND TRANSITION TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL RRV AND EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MN THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT. POINTS ALG AND WEST OF AN HCO-GFK-JMS LINE WILL SEE
MAINLY LOW VFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS WITH ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. FROM THE DVL BASIN INTO JMS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT EXPECT VFR CIGS BECOMING SCT. MVFR DECK SHOULD
STEADILY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MN THROUGH TUESDAY
FORENOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...GUST








000
FXUS63 KFGF 210230
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
930 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENST TO POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT... WITH MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD... MOVING EAST OF
THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD APPROACH AN
INCH OR SO ON GRASSY SURFACES FROM NORTHWEST MN INTO NORTHCENTRAL
MN. OTHERWSIE... WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
CENTRAL RRV FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BUT ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THERE
WILL BE SCANT. WIND GUSTS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING... BUT A LIGHT TO
MODERATE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF NORTHWEST
AND NORTHCENTRAL MN HAVE COOLED NEAR TO BELOW THE FREEZING PINT
NOW ...SO EXPECT PATCHY ICE DEVELOPING ON ROADWAYS AND WALKWAYS
AS WET PAVEMENT COOLS DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WHERE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ENDS
UP TONIGHT AND PCPN CHANCES UNDER THEM. AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE
WERE STILL EXTENSIVE CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE FA. TEMPS WERE IN THE
LOW 30S IN THE EAST AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE WEST. LOTS OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS SHOW BIG
FLAKES IN SPOTS BUT NOTHING OTHER THAN SOME WET ROADS. EARLIER
THIS MORNING THERE WERE SOME WHITE SPOTS IN GRASSY AREAS IN THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. AS TEMPS FALL A BIT TONIGHT THAT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN...BUT MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN IN AND OUT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AS IS AND LET THE
EVENING CREW EXPIRE IT AS NEED BE. TUE LOOKS WINDY AGAIN WITH THE
SNOW SHOWERS HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN FA. CURRENTLY HAVE THE
CLOUDS ALSO HANGING TOUGH ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY. THEREFORE
HIGHS SHOULD STAY A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN FA. THE GUSTY
WINDS FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED...SO ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE HOW COOL IT GETS TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR WED AND THU. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH BUT MORE IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. HIGHS BOTH DAYS REMAIN ON THE COLDER SIDE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS HAVE BECOME LESS AGREEABLE AS THE 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. THE GFS
AND GEM KEEP STEEL NW FLOW/SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF ESSENTIALLY INDICATES MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS AFFECTS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW WILL SIDE WITH THE
DRIER SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY START BELOW NORMAL...AND TRANSITION TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL RRV AND EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MN THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT. POINTS ALG AND WEST OF AN HCO-GFK-JMS LINE WILL SEE
MAINLY LOW VFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS WITH ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. FROM THE DVL BASIN INTO JMS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT EXPECT VFR CIGS BECOMING SCT. MVFR DECK SHOULD
STEADILY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MN THROUGH TUESDAY
FORENOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...GUST







000
FXUS63 KBIS 210210
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
910 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ALLOW WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. WILL TAKE A QUICK
LOOK AT 9 PM OBS SHORTLY TO EVALUATE RED FLAG WARNING...BUT EXPECT
WE WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL BEFORE 10 PM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO UPDATES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM. WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING
TO OVER 40 MPH IN MANY LOCATIONS AT 6 PM...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. RED FLAG WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM. IF WINDS DIMINISH AS PLANNED MAY BE
ABLE TO CANCEL BOTH A 9 PM...IF NOT A LITTLE BEFORE.

A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AS IT DROPS
THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RETURNS
NOTED ON CANADIAN RADARS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HIGHLIGHTED BY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

OTHERWISE...FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CUMULUS FIELDS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE DRY AXIS FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ARE EXPECTED TO FADE WITH SUNSET. THEREAFTER...A WEAK
IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
PROPAGATE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE 12
UTC AND INCOMING 18 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO RESULT FROM
NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FALLING AS LIGHT
SNOW. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE LONG TERM APPEARS RATHER COOL AND QUIET.

THROUGH MIDWEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
50S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

BY THURSDAY MODELS ARE DEPICTING A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE LONG TERM MODELS ENTERING THIS WEEKEND. IT DOES APPEAR THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
TIMING...LOCATION AND AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TO BEGIN THE 00Z FORECAST
PERIOD. VFR CLOUDS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. LOW VFR
CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO KJMS. A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH CANADA IS EXPECTED TO BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUDS BUT
MODELS ARE DEPICTING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS
BAND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS...KBIS...KMOT...KISN AND KDIK COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. CURRENTLY KBIS LOOKS TO BE
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY BASED ON LATEST FORECASTS SO WE DO HAVE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KBIS FROM 09-12 UTC TUESDAY. LOW VFR
CLOUDS AT KJMS MAY LOWER TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET AT THIS TIME TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS AT KJMS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY...

DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION TO BRING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

ON TUESDAY...CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 210210
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
910 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ALLOW WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. WILL TAKE A QUICK
LOOK AT 9 PM OBS SHORTLY TO EVALUATE RED FLAG WARNING...BUT EXPECT
WE WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL BEFORE 10 PM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO UPDATES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM. WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING
TO OVER 40 MPH IN MANY LOCATIONS AT 6 PM...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. RED FLAG WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM. IF WINDS DIMINISH AS PLANNED MAY BE
ABLE TO CANCEL BOTH A 9 PM...IF NOT A LITTLE BEFORE.

A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AS IT DROPS
THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RETURNS
NOTED ON CANADIAN RADARS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HIGHLIGHTED BY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

OTHERWISE...FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CUMULUS FIELDS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE DRY AXIS FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ARE EXPECTED TO FADE WITH SUNSET. THEREAFTER...A WEAK
IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
PROPAGATE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE 12
UTC AND INCOMING 18 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO RESULT FROM
NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FALLING AS LIGHT
SNOW. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE LONG TERM APPEARS RATHER COOL AND QUIET.

THROUGH MIDWEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
50S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

BY THURSDAY MODELS ARE DEPICTING A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE LONG TERM MODELS ENTERING THIS WEEKEND. IT DOES APPEAR THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
TIMING...LOCATION AND AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TO BEGIN THE 00Z FORECAST
PERIOD. VFR CLOUDS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. LOW VFR
CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO KJMS. A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH CANADA IS EXPECTED TO BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUDS BUT
MODELS ARE DEPICTING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS
BAND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS...KBIS...KMOT...KISN AND KDIK COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. CURRENTLY KBIS LOOKS TO BE
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY BASED ON LATEST FORECASTS SO WE DO HAVE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KBIS FROM 09-12 UTC TUESDAY. LOW VFR
CLOUDS AT KJMS MAY LOWER TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET AT THIS TIME TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS AT KJMS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY...

DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION TO BRING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

ON TUESDAY...CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 202354
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
654 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO UPDATES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM. WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING
TO OVER 40 MPH IN MANY LOCATIONS AT 6 PM...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. RED FLAG WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM. IF WINDS DIMINISH AS PLANNED MAY BE
ABLE TO CANCEL BOTH A 9 PM...IF NOT A LITTLE BEFORE.

A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AS IT DROPS
THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RETURNS
NOTED ON CANADIAN RADARS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HIGHLIGHTED BY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

OTHERWISE...FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CUMULUS FIELDS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE DRY AXIS FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ARE EXPECTED TO FADE WITH SUNSET. THEREAFTER...A WEAK
IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
PROPAGATE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE 12
UTC AND INCOMING 18 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO RESULT FROM
NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FALLING AS LIGHT
SNOW. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE LONG TERM APPEARS RATHER COOL AND QUIET.

THROUGH MIDWEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
50S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

BY THURSDAY MODELS ARE DEPICTING A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE LONG TERM MODELS ENTERING THIS WEEKEND. IT DOES APPEAR THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
TIMING...LOCATION AND AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TO BEGIN THE 00Z FORECAST
PERIOD. VFR CLOUDS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. LOW VFR
CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO KJMS. A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH CANADA IS EXPECTED TO BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUDS BUT
MODELS ARE DEPICTING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS
BAND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS...KBIS...KMOT...KISN AND KDIK COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. CURRENTLY KBIS LOOKS TO BE
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY BASED ON LATEST FORECASTS SO WE DO HAVE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KBIS FROM 09-12 UTC TUESDAY. LOW VFR
CLOUDS AT KJMS MAY LOWER TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET AT THIS TIME TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS AT KJMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY...

DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION TO BRING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

ON TUESDAY...CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-
019>023-025-034>037-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 202354
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
654 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO UPDATES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM. WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING
TO OVER 40 MPH IN MANY LOCATIONS AT 6 PM...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. RED FLAG WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM. IF WINDS DIMINISH AS PLANNED MAY BE
ABLE TO CANCEL BOTH A 9 PM...IF NOT A LITTLE BEFORE.

A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AS IT DROPS
THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RETURNS
NOTED ON CANADIAN RADARS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HIGHLIGHTED BY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

OTHERWISE...FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CUMULUS FIELDS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE DRY AXIS FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ARE EXPECTED TO FADE WITH SUNSET. THEREAFTER...A WEAK
IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
PROPAGATE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE 12
UTC AND INCOMING 18 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO RESULT FROM
NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FALLING AS LIGHT
SNOW. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE LONG TERM APPEARS RATHER COOL AND QUIET.

THROUGH MIDWEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
50S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

BY THURSDAY MODELS ARE DEPICTING A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE LONG TERM MODELS ENTERING THIS WEEKEND. IT DOES APPEAR THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
TIMING...LOCATION AND AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TO BEGIN THE 00Z FORECAST
PERIOD. VFR CLOUDS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. LOW VFR
CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO KJMS. A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH CANADA IS EXPECTED TO BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUDS BUT
MODELS ARE DEPICTING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS
BAND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS...KBIS...KMOT...KISN AND KDIK COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. CURRENTLY KBIS LOOKS TO BE
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY BASED ON LATEST FORECASTS SO WE DO HAVE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KBIS FROM 09-12 UTC TUESDAY. LOW VFR
CLOUDS AT KJMS MAY LOWER TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET AT THIS TIME TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS AT KJMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY...

DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION TO BRING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

ON TUESDAY...CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-
019>023-025-034>037-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 202354
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
654 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO UPDATES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM. WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING
TO OVER 40 MPH IN MANY LOCATIONS AT 6 PM...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. RED FLAG WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM. IF WINDS DIMINISH AS PLANNED MAY BE
ABLE TO CANCEL BOTH A 9 PM...IF NOT A LITTLE BEFORE.

A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AS IT DROPS
THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RETURNS
NOTED ON CANADIAN RADARS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HIGHLIGHTED BY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

OTHERWISE...FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CUMULUS FIELDS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE DRY AXIS FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ARE EXPECTED TO FADE WITH SUNSET. THEREAFTER...A WEAK
IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
PROPAGATE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE 12
UTC AND INCOMING 18 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO RESULT FROM
NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FALLING AS LIGHT
SNOW. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE LONG TERM APPEARS RATHER COOL AND QUIET.

THROUGH MIDWEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
50S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

BY THURSDAY MODELS ARE DEPICTING A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE LONG TERM MODELS ENTERING THIS WEEKEND. IT DOES APPEAR THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
TIMING...LOCATION AND AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TO BEGIN THE 00Z FORECAST
PERIOD. VFR CLOUDS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. LOW VFR
CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO KJMS. A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH CANADA IS EXPECTED TO BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUDS BUT
MODELS ARE DEPICTING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS
BAND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS...KBIS...KMOT...KISN AND KDIK COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. CURRENTLY KBIS LOOKS TO BE
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY BASED ON LATEST FORECASTS SO WE DO HAVE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KBIS FROM 09-12 UTC TUESDAY. LOW VFR
CLOUDS AT KJMS MAY LOWER TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET AT THIS TIME TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS AT KJMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY...

DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION TO BRING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

ON TUESDAY...CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-
019>023-025-034>037-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 202354
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
654 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO UPDATES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM. WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING
TO OVER 40 MPH IN MANY LOCATIONS AT 6 PM...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. RED FLAG WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM. IF WINDS DIMINISH AS PLANNED MAY BE
ABLE TO CANCEL BOTH A 9 PM...IF NOT A LITTLE BEFORE.

A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AS IT DROPS
THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RETURNS
NOTED ON CANADIAN RADARS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HIGHLIGHTED BY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

OTHERWISE...FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CUMULUS FIELDS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE DRY AXIS FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ARE EXPECTED TO FADE WITH SUNSET. THEREAFTER...A WEAK
IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
PROPAGATE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE 12
UTC AND INCOMING 18 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO RESULT FROM
NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FALLING AS LIGHT
SNOW. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE LONG TERM APPEARS RATHER COOL AND QUIET.

THROUGH MIDWEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
50S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

BY THURSDAY MODELS ARE DEPICTING A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE LONG TERM MODELS ENTERING THIS WEEKEND. IT DOES APPEAR THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
TIMING...LOCATION AND AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TO BEGIN THE 00Z FORECAST
PERIOD. VFR CLOUDS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. LOW VFR
CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO KJMS. A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH CANADA IS EXPECTED TO BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUDS BUT
MODELS ARE DEPICTING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS
BAND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS...KBIS...KMOT...KISN AND KDIK COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. CURRENTLY KBIS LOOKS TO BE
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY BASED ON LATEST FORECASTS SO WE DO HAVE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KBIS FROM 09-12 UTC TUESDAY. LOW VFR
CLOUDS AT KJMS MAY LOWER TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET AT THIS TIME TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS AT KJMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY...

DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION TO BRING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

ON TUESDAY...CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-
019>023-025-034>037-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 202354
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
654 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO UPDATES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM. WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING
TO OVER 40 MPH IN MANY LOCATIONS AT 6 PM...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. RED FLAG WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM. IF WINDS DIMINISH AS PLANNED MAY BE
ABLE TO CANCEL BOTH A 9 PM...IF NOT A LITTLE BEFORE.

A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AS IT DROPS
THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RETURNS
NOTED ON CANADIAN RADARS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HIGHLIGHTED BY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

OTHERWISE...FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CUMULUS FIELDS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE DRY AXIS FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ARE EXPECTED TO FADE WITH SUNSET. THEREAFTER...A WEAK
IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
PROPAGATE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE 12
UTC AND INCOMING 18 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO RESULT FROM
NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FALLING AS LIGHT
SNOW. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE LONG TERM APPEARS RATHER COOL AND QUIET.

THROUGH MIDWEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
50S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

BY THURSDAY MODELS ARE DEPICTING A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE LONG TERM MODELS ENTERING THIS WEEKEND. IT DOES APPEAR THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
TIMING...LOCATION AND AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TO BEGIN THE 00Z FORECAST
PERIOD. VFR CLOUDS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. LOW VFR
CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO KJMS. A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH CANADA IS EXPECTED TO BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUDS BUT
MODELS ARE DEPICTING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS
BAND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS...KBIS...KMOT...KISN AND KDIK COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. CURRENTLY KBIS LOOKS TO BE
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY BASED ON LATEST FORECASTS SO WE DO HAVE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KBIS FROM 09-12 UTC TUESDAY. LOW VFR
CLOUDS AT KJMS MAY LOWER TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET AT THIS TIME TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS AT KJMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY...

DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION TO BRING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

ON TUESDAY...CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-
019>023-025-034>037-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 202354
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
654 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO UPDATES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM. WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING
TO OVER 40 MPH IN MANY LOCATIONS AT 6 PM...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. RED FLAG WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM. IF WINDS DIMINISH AS PLANNED MAY BE
ABLE TO CANCEL BOTH A 9 PM...IF NOT A LITTLE BEFORE.

A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AS IT DROPS
THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RETURNS
NOTED ON CANADIAN RADARS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HIGHLIGHTED BY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

OTHERWISE...FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CUMULUS FIELDS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE DRY AXIS FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ARE EXPECTED TO FADE WITH SUNSET. THEREAFTER...A WEAK
IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
PROPAGATE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE 12
UTC AND INCOMING 18 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO RESULT FROM
NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FALLING AS LIGHT
SNOW. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE LONG TERM APPEARS RATHER COOL AND QUIET.

THROUGH MIDWEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
50S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

BY THURSDAY MODELS ARE DEPICTING A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE LONG TERM MODELS ENTERING THIS WEEKEND. IT DOES APPEAR THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
TIMING...LOCATION AND AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TO BEGIN THE 00Z FORECAST
PERIOD. VFR CLOUDS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. LOW VFR
CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO KJMS. A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH CANADA IS EXPECTED TO BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUDS BUT
MODELS ARE DEPICTING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS
BAND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS...KBIS...KMOT...KISN AND KDIK COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. CURRENTLY KBIS LOOKS TO BE
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY BASED ON LATEST FORECASTS SO WE DO HAVE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KBIS FROM 09-12 UTC TUESDAY. LOW VFR
CLOUDS AT KJMS MAY LOWER TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET AT THIS TIME TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS AT KJMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY...

DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION TO BRING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

ON TUESDAY...CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-
019>023-025-034>037-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...AYD







000
FXUS63 KFGF 202351
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED THIS EARLY EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE ROTATING THROUGH EASTCENTRAL ND INTO NORTHWEST MN WITH
AREAS WEST OF A HCO-GFK LINE TRANSITIONED OUT OF THE LIGHT SNOW
BAND BUT FACING CONTINUED CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL ARE COOLING TOWARDS THE FREEZING PINT
NOW AND COULD SEE SOME SLIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY
SURFACES... WITH PATCHY ICE DEVELOPING ON ROADWAYS AND WALKWAYS AS
FREEZING CONDITIONS CHILL THOSE AREAS DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WHERE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ENDS
UP TONIGHT AND PCPN CHANCES UNDER THEM. AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE
WERE STILL EXTENSIVE CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE FA. TEMPS WERE IN THE
LOW 30S IN THE EAST AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE WEST. LOTS OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS SHOW BIG
FLAKES IN SPOTS BUT NOTHING OTHER THAN SOME WET ROADS. EARLIER
THIS MORNING THERE WERE SOME WHITE SPOTS IN GRASSY AREAS IN THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. AS TEMPS FALL A BIT TONIGHT THAT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN...BUT MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN IN AND OUT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AS IS AND LET THE
EVENING CREW EXPIRE IT AS NEED BE. TUE LOOKS WINDY AGAIN WITH THE
SNOW SHOWERS HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN FA. CURRENTLY HAVE THE
CLOUDS ALSO HANGING TOUGH ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY. THEREFORE
HIGHS SHOULD STAY A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN FA. THE GUSTY
WINDS FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED...SO ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE HOW COOL IT GETS TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR WED AND THU. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH BUT MORE IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. HIGHS BOTH DAYS REMAIN ON THE COLDER SIDE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS HAVE BECOME LESS AGREEABLE AS THE 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. THE GFS
AND GEM KEEP STEEL NW FLOW/SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF ESSENTIALLY INDICATES MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS AFFECTS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW WILL SIDE WITH THE
DRIER SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY START BELOW NORMAL...AND TRANSITION TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL RRV AND EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MN THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT. POINTS ALG AND WEST OF AN HCO-GFK-JMS LINE WILL SEE
MAINLY LOW VFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS WITH ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. FROM THE DVL BASIN INTO JMS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT EXPECT VFR CIGS BECOMING SCT. MVFR DECK SHOULD
STEADILY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MN THROUGH TUESDAY
FORENOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...GUST






000
FXUS63 KFGF 202351
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED THIS EARLY EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE ROTATING THROUGH EASTCENTRAL ND INTO NORTHWEST MN WITH
AREAS WEST OF A HCO-GFK LINE TRANSITIONED OUT OF THE LIGHT SNOW
BAND BUT FACING CONTINUED CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL ARE COOLING TOWARDS THE FREEZING PINT
NOW AND COULD SEE SOME SLIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY
SURFACES... WITH PATCHY ICE DEVELOPING ON ROADWAYS AND WALKWAYS AS
FREEZING CONDITIONS CHILL THOSE AREAS DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WHERE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ENDS
UP TONIGHT AND PCPN CHANCES UNDER THEM. AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE
WERE STILL EXTENSIVE CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE FA. TEMPS WERE IN THE
LOW 30S IN THE EAST AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE WEST. LOTS OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS SHOW BIG
FLAKES IN SPOTS BUT NOTHING OTHER THAN SOME WET ROADS. EARLIER
THIS MORNING THERE WERE SOME WHITE SPOTS IN GRASSY AREAS IN THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. AS TEMPS FALL A BIT TONIGHT THAT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN...BUT MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN IN AND OUT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AS IS AND LET THE
EVENING CREW EXPIRE IT AS NEED BE. TUE LOOKS WINDY AGAIN WITH THE
SNOW SHOWERS HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN FA. CURRENTLY HAVE THE
CLOUDS ALSO HANGING TOUGH ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY. THEREFORE
HIGHS SHOULD STAY A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN FA. THE GUSTY
WINDS FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED...SO ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE HOW COOL IT GETS TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR WED AND THU. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH BUT MORE IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. HIGHS BOTH DAYS REMAIN ON THE COLDER SIDE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS HAVE BECOME LESS AGREEABLE AS THE 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. THE GFS
AND GEM KEEP STEEL NW FLOW/SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF ESSENTIALLY INDICATES MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS AFFECTS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW WILL SIDE WITH THE
DRIER SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY START BELOW NORMAL...AND TRANSITION TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL RRV AND EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MN THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT. POINTS ALG AND WEST OF AN HCO-GFK-JMS LINE WILL SEE
MAINLY LOW VFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS WITH ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. FROM THE DVL BASIN INTO JMS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT EXPECT VFR CIGS BECOMING SCT. MVFR DECK SHOULD
STEADILY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MN THROUGH TUESDAY
FORENOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...GUST






000
FXUS63 KFGF 202351
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED THIS EARLY EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE ROTATING THROUGH EASTCENTRAL ND INTO NORTHWEST MN WITH
AREAS WEST OF A HCO-GFK LINE TRANSITIONED OUT OF THE LIGHT SNOW
BAND BUT FACING CONTINUED CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL ARE COOLING TOWARDS THE FREEZING PINT
NOW AND COULD SEE SOME SLIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY
SURFACES... WITH PATCHY ICE DEVELOPING ON ROADWAYS AND WALKWAYS AS
FREEZING CONDITIONS CHILL THOSE AREAS DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WHERE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ENDS
UP TONIGHT AND PCPN CHANCES UNDER THEM. AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE
WERE STILL EXTENSIVE CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE FA. TEMPS WERE IN THE
LOW 30S IN THE EAST AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE WEST. LOTS OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS SHOW BIG
FLAKES IN SPOTS BUT NOTHING OTHER THAN SOME WET ROADS. EARLIER
THIS MORNING THERE WERE SOME WHITE SPOTS IN GRASSY AREAS IN THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. AS TEMPS FALL A BIT TONIGHT THAT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN...BUT MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN IN AND OUT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AS IS AND LET THE
EVENING CREW EXPIRE IT AS NEED BE. TUE LOOKS WINDY AGAIN WITH THE
SNOW SHOWERS HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN FA. CURRENTLY HAVE THE
CLOUDS ALSO HANGING TOUGH ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY. THEREFORE
HIGHS SHOULD STAY A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN FA. THE GUSTY
WINDS FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED...SO ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE HOW COOL IT GETS TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR WED AND THU. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH BUT MORE IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. HIGHS BOTH DAYS REMAIN ON THE COLDER SIDE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS HAVE BECOME LESS AGREEABLE AS THE 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. THE GFS
AND GEM KEEP STEEL NW FLOW/SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF ESSENTIALLY INDICATES MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS AFFECTS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW WILL SIDE WITH THE
DRIER SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY START BELOW NORMAL...AND TRANSITION TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL RRV AND EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MN THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT. POINTS ALG AND WEST OF AN HCO-GFK-JMS LINE WILL SEE
MAINLY LOW VFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS WITH ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. FROM THE DVL BASIN INTO JMS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT EXPECT VFR CIGS BECOMING SCT. MVFR DECK SHOULD
STEADILY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MN THROUGH TUESDAY
FORENOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...GUST







000
FXUS63 KBIS 202105
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HIGHLIGHTED BY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

OTHERWISE...FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CUMULUS FIELDS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE DRY AXIS FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ARE EXPECTED TO FADE WITH SUNSET. THEREAFTER...A WEAK
IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
PROPAGATE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE 12
UTC AND INCOMING 18 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO RESULT FROM
NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FALLING AS LIGHT
SNOW. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE LONG TERM APPEARS RATHER COOL AND QUIET.

THROUGH MIDWEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
50S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

BY THURSDAY MODELS ARE DEPICTING A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE LONG TERM MODELS ENTERING THIS WEEKEND. IT DOES APPEAR THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
TIMING...LOCATION AND AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 450 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MVFR/VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE KJMS TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
25-30 KTS WEST AND OVER 35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY...

DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION TO BRING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

ON TUESDAY...CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-
019>023-025-034>037-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...AYD




000
FXUS63 KFGF 202000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WHERE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ENDS
UP TONIGHT AND PCPN CHANCES UNDER THEM. AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE
WERE STILL EXTENSIVE CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE FA. TEMPS WERE IN THE
LOW 30S IN THE EAST AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE WEST. LOTS OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS SHOW BIG
FLAKES IN SPOTS BUT NOTHING OTHER THAN SOME WET ROADS. EARLIER
THIS MORNING THERE WERE SOME WHITE SPOTS IN GRASSY AREAS IN THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. AS TEMPS FALL A BIT TONIGHT THAT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN...BUT MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN IN AND OUT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AS IS AND LET THE
EVENING CREW EXPIRE IT AS NEED BE. TUE LOOKS WINDY AGAIN WITH THE
SNOW SHOWERS HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN FA. CURRENTLY HAVE THE
CLOUDS ALSO HANGING TOUGH ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY. THEREFORE
HIGHS SHOULD STAY A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN FA. THE GUSTY
WINDS FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED...SO ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE HOW COOL IT GETS TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR WED AND THU. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH BUT MORE IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. HIGHS BOTH DAYS REMAIN ON THE COLDER SIDE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS HAVE BECOME LESS AGREEABLE AS THE 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. THE GFS
AND GEM KEEP STEEL NW FLOW/SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF ESSENTIALLY INDICATES MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS AFFECTS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW WILL SIDE WITH THE
DRIER SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY START BELOW NORMAL...AND TRANSITION TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

ELEVATED WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHER
GUSTS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND
MVFR CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 202000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WHERE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ENDS
UP TONIGHT AND PCPN CHANCES UNDER THEM. AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE
WERE STILL EXTENSIVE CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE FA. TEMPS WERE IN THE
LOW 30S IN THE EAST AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE WEST. LOTS OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS SHOW BIG
FLAKES IN SPOTS BUT NOTHING OTHER THAN SOME WET ROADS. EARLIER
THIS MORNING THERE WERE SOME WHITE SPOTS IN GRASSY AREAS IN THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. AS TEMPS FALL A BIT TONIGHT THAT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN...BUT MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN IN AND OUT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AS IS AND LET THE
EVENING CREW EXPIRE IT AS NEED BE. TUE LOOKS WINDY AGAIN WITH THE
SNOW SHOWERS HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN FA. CURRENTLY HAVE THE
CLOUDS ALSO HANGING TOUGH ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY. THEREFORE
HIGHS SHOULD STAY A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN FA. THE GUSTY
WINDS FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED...SO ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE HOW COOL IT GETS TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR WED AND THU. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH BUT MORE IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. HIGHS BOTH DAYS REMAIN ON THE COLDER SIDE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS HAVE BECOME LESS AGREEABLE AS THE 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. THE GFS
AND GEM KEEP STEEL NW FLOW/SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF ESSENTIALLY INDICATES MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS AFFECTS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW WILL SIDE WITH THE
DRIER SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY START BELOW NORMAL...AND TRANSITION TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

ELEVATED WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHER
GUSTS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND
MVFR CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KBIS 201900
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
200 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH AN AXIS OF VERY DRY AIR MARKED
BY DEW POINTS FALLING BELOW 0 F AT TIMES FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LOOK ON TRACK TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD
COVER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND HAVE PULLED IT TO THE WEST A
BIT IN LINE WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. HAVE ALSO KEPT THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE A BIT LONGER AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST HIGH RES
MODELS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WINDY AND
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
WEST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED ENERGY
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR WEST.

BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS WE WILL TAP INTO AROUND 40KTS OF WIND TODAY
OVER MY CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES AS WE MIX UP TO NEAR 700MB.
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN NORTH ALONG HIGHWAY 83 TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER...AND ALL POINTS EAST. AS WE MIX OUT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND/OR TEENS...RESULTING IN
AFTERNOON PERCENT RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS NORTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL...WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20S OVER MY FAR EAST AND
FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF 00-02Z THIS EVENING AS THE NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS. AN EMBEDDED WAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LOW SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AS RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
THOUGH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY REGION IN MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS REGION REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS START
TO DIVERGE ON SOME KEY FEATURES TOWARDS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THOUGH A SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ALONG WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MVFR/VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE KJMS TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
PICK UP AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KTS WEST AND OVER
35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

A DRY AND WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN
REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

ON TUESDAY...CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-
019>023-025-034>037-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 201900
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
200 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH AN AXIS OF VERY DRY AIR MARKED
BY DEW POINTS FALLING BELOW 0 F AT TIMES FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LOOK ON TRACK TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD
COVER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND HAVE PULLED IT TO THE WEST A
BIT IN LINE WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. HAVE ALSO KEPT THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE A BIT LONGER AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST HIGH RES
MODELS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WINDY AND
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
WEST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED ENERGY
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR WEST.

BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS WE WILL TAP INTO AROUND 40KTS OF WIND TODAY
OVER MY CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES AS WE MIX UP TO NEAR 700MB.
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN NORTH ALONG HIGHWAY 83 TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER...AND ALL POINTS EAST. AS WE MIX OUT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND/OR TEENS...RESULTING IN
AFTERNOON PERCENT RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS NORTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL...WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20S OVER MY FAR EAST AND
FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF 00-02Z THIS EVENING AS THE NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS. AN EMBEDDED WAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LOW SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AS RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
THOUGH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY REGION IN MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS REGION REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS START
TO DIVERGE ON SOME KEY FEATURES TOWARDS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THOUGH A SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ALONG WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MVFR/VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE KJMS TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
PICK UP AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KTS WEST AND OVER
35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

A DRY AND WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN
REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

ON TUESDAY...CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-
019>023-025-034>037-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 201900
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
200 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH AN AXIS OF VERY DRY AIR MARKED
BY DEW POINTS FALLING BELOW 0 F AT TIMES FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LOOK ON TRACK TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD
COVER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND HAVE PULLED IT TO THE WEST A
BIT IN LINE WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. HAVE ALSO KEPT THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE A BIT LONGER AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST HIGH RES
MODELS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WINDY AND
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
WEST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED ENERGY
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR WEST.

BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS WE WILL TAP INTO AROUND 40KTS OF WIND TODAY
OVER MY CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES AS WE MIX UP TO NEAR 700MB.
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN NORTH ALONG HIGHWAY 83 TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER...AND ALL POINTS EAST. AS WE MIX OUT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND/OR TEENS...RESULTING IN
AFTERNOON PERCENT RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS NORTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL...WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20S OVER MY FAR EAST AND
FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF 00-02Z THIS EVENING AS THE NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS. AN EMBEDDED WAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LOW SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AS RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
THOUGH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY REGION IN MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS REGION REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS START
TO DIVERGE ON SOME KEY FEATURES TOWARDS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THOUGH A SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ALONG WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MVFR/VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE KJMS TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
PICK UP AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KTS WEST AND OVER
35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

A DRY AND WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN
REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

ON TUESDAY...CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-
019>023-025-034>037-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 201900
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
200 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH AN AXIS OF VERY DRY AIR MARKED
BY DEW POINTS FALLING BELOW 0 F AT TIMES FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LOOK ON TRACK TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD
COVER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND HAVE PULLED IT TO THE WEST A
BIT IN LINE WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. HAVE ALSO KEPT THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE A BIT LONGER AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST HIGH RES
MODELS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WINDY AND
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
WEST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED ENERGY
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR WEST.

BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS WE WILL TAP INTO AROUND 40KTS OF WIND TODAY
OVER MY CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES AS WE MIX UP TO NEAR 700MB.
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN NORTH ALONG HIGHWAY 83 TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER...AND ALL POINTS EAST. AS WE MIX OUT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND/OR TEENS...RESULTING IN
AFTERNOON PERCENT RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS NORTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL...WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20S OVER MY FAR EAST AND
FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF 00-02Z THIS EVENING AS THE NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS. AN EMBEDDED WAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LOW SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AS RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
THOUGH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY REGION IN MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS REGION REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS START
TO DIVERGE ON SOME KEY FEATURES TOWARDS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THOUGH A SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ALONG WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MVFR/VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE KJMS TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
PICK UP AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KTS WEST AND OVER
35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

A DRY AND WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN
REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

ON TUESDAY...CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-
019>023-025-034>037-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 201900
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
200 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH AN AXIS OF VERY DRY AIR MARKED
BY DEW POINTS FALLING BELOW 0 F AT TIMES FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LOOK ON TRACK TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD
COVER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND HAVE PULLED IT TO THE WEST A
BIT IN LINE WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. HAVE ALSO KEPT THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE A BIT LONGER AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST HIGH RES
MODELS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WINDY AND
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
WEST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED ENERGY
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR WEST.

BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS WE WILL TAP INTO AROUND 40KTS OF WIND TODAY
OVER MY CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES AS WE MIX UP TO NEAR 700MB.
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN NORTH ALONG HIGHWAY 83 TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER...AND ALL POINTS EAST. AS WE MIX OUT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND/OR TEENS...RESULTING IN
AFTERNOON PERCENT RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS NORTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL...WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20S OVER MY FAR EAST AND
FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF 00-02Z THIS EVENING AS THE NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS. AN EMBEDDED WAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LOW SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AS RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
THOUGH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY REGION IN MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS REGION REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS START
TO DIVERGE ON SOME KEY FEATURES TOWARDS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THOUGH A SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ALONG WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MVFR/VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE KJMS TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
PICK UP AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KTS WEST AND OVER
35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

A DRY AND WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN
REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

ON TUESDAY...CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-
019>023-025-034>037-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 201900
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
200 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH AN AXIS OF VERY DRY AIR MARKED
BY DEW POINTS FALLING BELOW 0 F AT TIMES FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LOOK ON TRACK TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD
COVER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND HAVE PULLED IT TO THE WEST A
BIT IN LINE WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. HAVE ALSO KEPT THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE A BIT LONGER AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST HIGH RES
MODELS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WINDY AND
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
WEST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED ENERGY
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR WEST.

BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS WE WILL TAP INTO AROUND 40KTS OF WIND TODAY
OVER MY CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES AS WE MIX UP TO NEAR 700MB.
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN NORTH ALONG HIGHWAY 83 TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER...AND ALL POINTS EAST. AS WE MIX OUT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND/OR TEENS...RESULTING IN
AFTERNOON PERCENT RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS NORTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL...WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20S OVER MY FAR EAST AND
FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF 00-02Z THIS EVENING AS THE NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS. AN EMBEDDED WAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LOW SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AS RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
THOUGH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY REGION IN MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS REGION REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS START
TO DIVERGE ON SOME KEY FEATURES TOWARDS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THOUGH A SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ALONG WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MVFR/VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE KJMS TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
PICK UP AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KTS WEST AND OVER
35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

A DRY AND WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN
REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

ON TUESDAY...CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-
019>023-025-034>037-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 201900
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
200 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH AN AXIS OF VERY DRY AIR MARKED
BY DEW POINTS FALLING BELOW 0 F AT TIMES FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LOOK ON TRACK TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD
COVER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND HAVE PULLED IT TO THE WEST A
BIT IN LINE WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. HAVE ALSO KEPT THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE A BIT LONGER AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST HIGH RES
MODELS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WINDY AND
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
WEST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED ENERGY
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR WEST.

BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS WE WILL TAP INTO AROUND 40KTS OF WIND TODAY
OVER MY CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES AS WE MIX UP TO NEAR 700MB.
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN NORTH ALONG HIGHWAY 83 TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER...AND ALL POINTS EAST. AS WE MIX OUT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND/OR TEENS...RESULTING IN
AFTERNOON PERCENT RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS NORTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL...WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20S OVER MY FAR EAST AND
FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF 00-02Z THIS EVENING AS THE NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS. AN EMBEDDED WAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LOW SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AS RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
THOUGH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY REGION IN MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS REGION REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS START
TO DIVERGE ON SOME KEY FEATURES TOWARDS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THOUGH A SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ALONG WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MVFR/VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE KJMS TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
PICK UP AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KTS WEST AND OVER
35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

A DRY AND WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN
REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

ON TUESDAY...CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-
019>023-025-034>037-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 201900
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
200 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH AN AXIS OF VERY DRY AIR MARKED
BY DEW POINTS FALLING BELOW 0 F AT TIMES FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LOOK ON TRACK TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD
COVER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND HAVE PULLED IT TO THE WEST A
BIT IN LINE WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. HAVE ALSO KEPT THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE A BIT LONGER AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST HIGH RES
MODELS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WINDY AND
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
WEST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED ENERGY
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR WEST.

BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS WE WILL TAP INTO AROUND 40KTS OF WIND TODAY
OVER MY CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES AS WE MIX UP TO NEAR 700MB.
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN NORTH ALONG HIGHWAY 83 TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER...AND ALL POINTS EAST. AS WE MIX OUT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND/OR TEENS...RESULTING IN
AFTERNOON PERCENT RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS NORTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL...WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20S OVER MY FAR EAST AND
FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF 00-02Z THIS EVENING AS THE NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS. AN EMBEDDED WAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LOW SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AS RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
THOUGH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY REGION IN MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS REGION REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS START
TO DIVERGE ON SOME KEY FEATURES TOWARDS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THOUGH A SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ALONG WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MVFR/VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE KJMS TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
PICK UP AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KTS WEST AND OVER
35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

A DRY AND WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN
REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

ON TUESDAY...CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-
019>023-025-034>037-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JJS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 201739
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1239 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

DECENT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THICK CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF WHERE THEY ARE AT
NOW. WITH THAT IN MIND LOWERED HIGHS EVEN A LITTLE MORE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
PLANNING ON EXPANDING THE WIND ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGRESSION TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY THIS PERIOD. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MAN. UPPER LOW FORECAST
TO CARVE OUT A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LOW FORECAST TO
DRIFT EAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LOBES OF VORTICITY TO ROTATE AROUND SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN FORECAST TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING INTO FAR WESTERN
ND AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS ND THROUGH 84 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
DRIES OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GOOD MIXING EXPECTED TODAY WITH ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 700
HPA. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR BETTER
POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE AN WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR VALLEY COUNTIES AND
WESTWARD. WILL CANCEL FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS RHS NOT IN CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOOK FOR GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS AS
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO MOVES AND A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE N PLAINS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL ENTER
EASTERN ND AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

ELEVATED WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHER
GUSTS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND
MVFR CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 201455
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

CURRENTLY HAVE THE 500MB LOW SPINNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MANITOBA.
RADAR NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE YET BUT THERE ARE ECHOES ACROSS
SOUTHERN MANITOBA THAT ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD. WITH THE COLD TEMPS
ALOFT AGAIN TODAY EXPECT MORE SHOWERY PCPN DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. PCPN TYPE BEING MORE SNOW THIS MORNING
AND MIXED THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WERE REPORTS OF ICE PELLETS WEST
OF THE FA YESTERDAY AND COULD GET SOME OF THOSE HERE TODAY TOO.
TEMPS WILL NOT SHOW MUCH UPWARD MOVEMENT TODAY...WITH MOST AREAS
LOOKING AT 5-10F OF RISE FROM WHERE THEY ARE AT NOW. WILL NOT
EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN TO SEE IF AN EXPANSION IS NEEDED THERE
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGRESSION TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY THIS PERIOD. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MAN. UPPER LOW FORECAST
TO CARVE OUT A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LOW FORECAST TO
DRIFT EAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LOBES OF VORTICITY TO ROTATE AROUND SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN FORECAST TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING INTO FAR WESTERN
ND AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS ND THROUGH 84 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
DRIES OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GOOD MIXING EXPECTED TODAY WITH ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 700
HPA. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR BETTER
POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE AN WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR VALLEY COUNTIES AND
WESTWARD. WILL CANCEL FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS RHS NOT IN CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOOK FOR GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS AS
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO MOVES AND A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE N PLAINS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL ENTER
EASTERN ND AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MOSTLY MVFR CIGS WERE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA HAD CIGS GENERALLY
ABOVE 30 HUNDRED FT. EXPECT LOW CLOUD DECK TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH
TODAY. WIND SHOULD SETTLE DOWN NEAR SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 201455
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

CURRENTLY HAVE THE 500MB LOW SPINNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MANITOBA.
RADAR NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE YET BUT THERE ARE ECHOES ACROSS
SOUTHERN MANITOBA THAT ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD. WITH THE COLD TEMPS
ALOFT AGAIN TODAY EXPECT MORE SHOWERY PCPN DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. PCPN TYPE BEING MORE SNOW THIS MORNING
AND MIXED THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WERE REPORTS OF ICE PELLETS WEST
OF THE FA YESTERDAY AND COULD GET SOME OF THOSE HERE TODAY TOO.
TEMPS WILL NOT SHOW MUCH UPWARD MOVEMENT TODAY...WITH MOST AREAS
LOOKING AT 5-10F OF RISE FROM WHERE THEY ARE AT NOW. WILL NOT
EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN TO SEE IF AN EXPANSION IS NEEDED THERE
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGRESSION TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY THIS PERIOD. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MAN. UPPER LOW FORECAST
TO CARVE OUT A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LOW FORECAST TO
DRIFT EAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LOBES OF VORTICITY TO ROTATE AROUND SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN FORECAST TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING INTO FAR WESTERN
ND AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS ND THROUGH 84 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
DRIES OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GOOD MIXING EXPECTED TODAY WITH ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 700
HPA. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR BETTER
POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE AN WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR VALLEY COUNTIES AND
WESTWARD. WILL CANCEL FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS RHS NOT IN CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOOK FOR GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS AS
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO MOVES AND A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE N PLAINS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL ENTER
EASTERN ND AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MOSTLY MVFR CIGS WERE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA HAD CIGS GENERALLY
ABOVE 30 HUNDRED FT. EXPECT LOW CLOUD DECK TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH
TODAY. WIND SHOULD SETTLE DOWN NEAR SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES







000
FXUS63 KFGF 201455
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

CURRENTLY HAVE THE 500MB LOW SPINNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MANITOBA.
RADAR NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE YET BUT THERE ARE ECHOES ACROSS
SOUTHERN MANITOBA THAT ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD. WITH THE COLD TEMPS
ALOFT AGAIN TODAY EXPECT MORE SHOWERY PCPN DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. PCPN TYPE BEING MORE SNOW THIS MORNING
AND MIXED THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WERE REPORTS OF ICE PELLETS WEST
OF THE FA YESTERDAY AND COULD GET SOME OF THOSE HERE TODAY TOO.
TEMPS WILL NOT SHOW MUCH UPWARD MOVEMENT TODAY...WITH MOST AREAS
LOOKING AT 5-10F OF RISE FROM WHERE THEY ARE AT NOW. WILL NOT
EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN TO SEE IF AN EXPANSION IS NEEDED THERE
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGRESSION TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY THIS PERIOD. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MAN. UPPER LOW FORECAST
TO CARVE OUT A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LOW FORECAST TO
DRIFT EAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LOBES OF VORTICITY TO ROTATE AROUND SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN FORECAST TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING INTO FAR WESTERN
ND AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS ND THROUGH 84 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
DRIES OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GOOD MIXING EXPECTED TODAY WITH ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 700
HPA. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR BETTER
POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE AN WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR VALLEY COUNTIES AND
WESTWARD. WILL CANCEL FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS RHS NOT IN CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOOK FOR GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS AS
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO MOVES AND A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE N PLAINS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL ENTER
EASTERN ND AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MOSTLY MVFR CIGS WERE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA HAD CIGS GENERALLY
ABOVE 30 HUNDRED FT. EXPECT LOW CLOUD DECK TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH
TODAY. WIND SHOULD SETTLE DOWN NEAR SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES







000
FXUS63 KFGF 201455
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

CURRENTLY HAVE THE 500MB LOW SPINNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MANITOBA.
RADAR NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE YET BUT THERE ARE ECHOES ACROSS
SOUTHERN MANITOBA THAT ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD. WITH THE COLD TEMPS
ALOFT AGAIN TODAY EXPECT MORE SHOWERY PCPN DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. PCPN TYPE BEING MORE SNOW THIS MORNING
AND MIXED THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WERE REPORTS OF ICE PELLETS WEST
OF THE FA YESTERDAY AND COULD GET SOME OF THOSE HERE TODAY TOO.
TEMPS WILL NOT SHOW MUCH UPWARD MOVEMENT TODAY...WITH MOST AREAS
LOOKING AT 5-10F OF RISE FROM WHERE THEY ARE AT NOW. WILL NOT
EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN TO SEE IF AN EXPANSION IS NEEDED THERE
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGRESSION TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY THIS PERIOD. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MAN. UPPER LOW FORECAST
TO CARVE OUT A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LOW FORECAST TO
DRIFT EAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LOBES OF VORTICITY TO ROTATE AROUND SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN FORECAST TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING INTO FAR WESTERN
ND AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS ND THROUGH 84 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
DRIES OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GOOD MIXING EXPECTED TODAY WITH ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 700
HPA. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR BETTER
POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE AN WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR VALLEY COUNTIES AND
WESTWARD. WILL CANCEL FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS RHS NOT IN CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOOK FOR GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS AS
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO MOVES AND A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE N PLAINS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL ENTER
EASTERN ND AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MOSTLY MVFR CIGS WERE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA HAD CIGS GENERALLY
ABOVE 30 HUNDRED FT. EXPECT LOW CLOUD DECK TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH
TODAY. WIND SHOULD SETTLE DOWN NEAR SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KBIS 201439
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
939 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LOOK ON TRACK TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD
COVER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND HAVE PULLED IT TO THE WEST A
BIT IN LINE WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. HAVE ALSO KEPT THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE A BIT LONGER AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST HIGH RES
MODELS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WINDY AND
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
WEST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED ENERGY
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR WEST.

BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS WE WILL TAP INTO AROUND 40KTS OF WIND TODAY
OVER MY CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES AS WE MIX UP TO NEAR 700MB.
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN NORTH ALONG HIGHWAY 83 TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER...AND ALL POINTS EAST. AS WE MIX OUT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND/OR TEENS...RESULTING IN
AFTERNOON PERCENT RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS NORTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL...WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20S OVER MY FAR EAST AND
FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF 00-02Z THIS EVENING AS THE NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS. AN EMBEDDED WAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LOW SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AS RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
THOUGH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY REGION IN MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS REGION REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS START
TO DIVERGE ON SOME KEY FEATURES TOWARDS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THOUGH A SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ALONG WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AFFECTING THE KMOT AND KJMS TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TODAY WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KTS WEST AND OVER 35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

A DRY AND WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN
REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

ON TUESDAY...CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-
019>023-025-034>037-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 201439
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
939 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LOOK ON TRACK TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD
COVER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND HAVE PULLED IT TO THE WEST A
BIT IN LINE WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. HAVE ALSO KEPT THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE A BIT LONGER AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST HIGH RES
MODELS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WINDY AND
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
WEST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED ENERGY
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR WEST.

BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS WE WILL TAP INTO AROUND 40KTS OF WIND TODAY
OVER MY CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES AS WE MIX UP TO NEAR 700MB.
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN NORTH ALONG HIGHWAY 83 TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER...AND ALL POINTS EAST. AS WE MIX OUT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND/OR TEENS...RESULTING IN
AFTERNOON PERCENT RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS NORTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL...WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20S OVER MY FAR EAST AND
FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF 00-02Z THIS EVENING AS THE NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS. AN EMBEDDED WAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LOW SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AS RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
THOUGH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY REGION IN MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS REGION REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS START
TO DIVERGE ON SOME KEY FEATURES TOWARDS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THOUGH A SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ALONG WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AFFECTING THE KMOT AND KJMS TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TODAY WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KTS WEST AND OVER 35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

A DRY AND WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN
REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

ON TUESDAY...CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-
019>023-025-034>037-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 201439
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
939 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LOOK ON TRACK TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD
COVER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND HAVE PULLED IT TO THE WEST A
BIT IN LINE WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. HAVE ALSO KEPT THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE A BIT LONGER AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST HIGH RES
MODELS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WINDY AND
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
WEST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED ENERGY
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR WEST.

BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS WE WILL TAP INTO AROUND 40KTS OF WIND TODAY
OVER MY CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES AS WE MIX UP TO NEAR 700MB.
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN NORTH ALONG HIGHWAY 83 TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER...AND ALL POINTS EAST. AS WE MIX OUT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND/OR TEENS...RESULTING IN
AFTERNOON PERCENT RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS NORTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL...WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20S OVER MY FAR EAST AND
FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF 00-02Z THIS EVENING AS THE NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS. AN EMBEDDED WAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LOW SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AS RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
THOUGH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY REGION IN MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS REGION REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS START
TO DIVERGE ON SOME KEY FEATURES TOWARDS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THOUGH A SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ALONG WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AFFECTING THE KMOT AND KJMS TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TODAY WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KTS WEST AND OVER 35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

A DRY AND WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN
REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

ON TUESDAY...CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-
019>023-025-034>037-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JJS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 201200
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...MOSTLY ON THE NORTH DAKOTA SIDE OF THE RED
RIVER. LITTLE LESS WIND EXPECTED ON THE MN SIDE. OTHER WISE NO
UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGRESSION TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY THIS PERIOD. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MAN. UPPER LOW FORECAST
TO CARVE OUT A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LOW FORECAST TO
DRIFT EAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LOBES OF VORTICITY TO ROTATE AROUND SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN FORECAST TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING INTO FAR WESTERN
ND AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS ND THROUGH 84 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
DRIES OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GOOD MIXING EXPECTED TODAY WITH ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 700
HPA. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR BETTER
POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE AN WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR VALLEY COUNTIES AND
WESTWARD. WILL CANCEL FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS RHS NOT IN CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOOK FOR GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS AS
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO MOVES AND A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE N PLAINS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL ENTER
EASTERN ND AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MOSTLY MVFR CIGS WERE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA HAD CIGS GENERALLY
ABOVE 30 HUNDRED FT. EXPECT LOW CLOUD DECK TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH
TODAY. WIND SHOULD SETTLE DOWN NEAR SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 201200
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...MOSTLY ON THE NORTH DAKOTA SIDE OF THE RED
RIVER. LITTLE LESS WIND EXPECTED ON THE MN SIDE. OTHER WISE NO
UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGRESSION TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY THIS PERIOD. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MAN. UPPER LOW FORECAST
TO CARVE OUT A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LOW FORECAST TO
DRIFT EAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LOBES OF VORTICITY TO ROTATE AROUND SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN FORECAST TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING INTO FAR WESTERN
ND AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS ND THROUGH 84 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
DRIES OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GOOD MIXING EXPECTED TODAY WITH ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 700
HPA. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR BETTER
POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE AN WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR VALLEY COUNTIES AND
WESTWARD. WILL CANCEL FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS RHS NOT IN CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOOK FOR GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS AS
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO MOVES AND A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE N PLAINS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL ENTER
EASTERN ND AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MOSTLY MVFR CIGS WERE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA HAD CIGS GENERALLY
ABOVE 30 HUNDRED FT. EXPECT LOW CLOUD DECK TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH
TODAY. WIND SHOULD SETTLE DOWN NEAR SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 201200
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...MOSTLY ON THE NORTH DAKOTA SIDE OF THE RED
RIVER. LITTLE LESS WIND EXPECTED ON THE MN SIDE. OTHER WISE NO
UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGRESSION TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY THIS PERIOD. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MAN. UPPER LOW FORECAST
TO CARVE OUT A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LOW FORECAST TO
DRIFT EAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LOBES OF VORTICITY TO ROTATE AROUND SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN FORECAST TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING INTO FAR WESTERN
ND AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS ND THROUGH 84 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
DRIES OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GOOD MIXING EXPECTED TODAY WITH ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 700
HPA. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR BETTER
POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE AN WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR VALLEY COUNTIES AND
WESTWARD. WILL CANCEL FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS RHS NOT IN CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOOK FOR GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS AS
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO MOVES AND A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE N PLAINS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL ENTER
EASTERN ND AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MOSTLY MVFR CIGS WERE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA HAD CIGS GENERALLY
ABOVE 30 HUNDRED FT. EXPECT LOW CLOUD DECK TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH
TODAY. WIND SHOULD SETTLE DOWN NEAR SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 201200
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...MOSTLY ON THE NORTH DAKOTA SIDE OF THE RED
RIVER. LITTLE LESS WIND EXPECTED ON THE MN SIDE. OTHER WISE NO
UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGRESSION TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY THIS PERIOD. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MAN. UPPER LOW FORECAST
TO CARVE OUT A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LOW FORECAST TO
DRIFT EAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LOBES OF VORTICITY TO ROTATE AROUND SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN FORECAST TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING INTO FAR WESTERN
ND AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS ND THROUGH 84 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
DRIES OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GOOD MIXING EXPECTED TODAY WITH ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 700
HPA. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR BETTER
POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE AN WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR VALLEY COUNTIES AND
WESTWARD. WILL CANCEL FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS RHS NOT IN CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOOK FOR GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS AS
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO MOVES AND A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE N PLAINS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL ENTER
EASTERN ND AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MOSTLY MVFR CIGS WERE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA HAD CIGS GENERALLY
ABOVE 30 HUNDRED FT. EXPECT LOW CLOUD DECK TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH
TODAY. WIND SHOULD SETTLE DOWN NEAR SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KBIS 201136
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD
COVER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND HAVE PULLED IT TO THE WEST A
BIT IN LINE WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. HAVE ALSO KEPT THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE A BIT LONGER AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST HIGH RES
MODELS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WINDY AND
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
WEST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED ENERGY
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR WEST.

BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS WE WILL TAP INTO AROUND 40KTS OF WIND TODAY
OVER MY CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES AS WE MIX UP TO NEAR 700MB.
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN NORTH ALONG HIGHWAY 83 TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER...AND ALL POINTS EAST. AS WE MIX OUT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND/OR TEENS...RESULTING IN
AFTERNOON PERCENT RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS NORTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL...WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20S OVER MY FAR EAST AND
FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF 00-02Z THIS EVENING AS THE NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS. AN EMBEDDED WAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LOW SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AS RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
THOUGH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY REGION IN MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS REGION REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS START
TO DIVERGE ON SOME KEY FEATURES TOWARDS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THOUGH A SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ALONG WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AFFECTING THE KMOT AND KJMS TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TODAY WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KTS WEST AND OVER 35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

A DRY AND WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN
REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

ON TUESDAY...CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 10 PM CDT /9
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 201136
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD
COVER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND HAVE PULLED IT TO THE WEST A
BIT IN LINE WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. HAVE ALSO KEPT THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE A BIT LONGER AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST HIGH RES
MODELS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WINDY AND
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
WEST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED ENERGY
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR WEST.

BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS WE WILL TAP INTO AROUND 40KTS OF WIND TODAY
OVER MY CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES AS WE MIX UP TO NEAR 700MB.
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN NORTH ALONG HIGHWAY 83 TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER...AND ALL POINTS EAST. AS WE MIX OUT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND/OR TEENS...RESULTING IN
AFTERNOON PERCENT RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS NORTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL...WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20S OVER MY FAR EAST AND
FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF 00-02Z THIS EVENING AS THE NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS. AN EMBEDDED WAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LOW SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AS RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
THOUGH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY REGION IN MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS REGION REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS START
TO DIVERGE ON SOME KEY FEATURES TOWARDS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THOUGH A SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ALONG WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AFFECTING THE KMOT AND KJMS TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TODAY WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KTS WEST AND OVER 35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

A DRY AND WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN
REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

ON TUESDAY...CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 10 PM CDT /9
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 201136
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD
COVER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND HAVE PULLED IT TO THE WEST A
BIT IN LINE WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. HAVE ALSO KEPT THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE A BIT LONGER AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST HIGH RES
MODELS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WINDY AND
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
WEST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED ENERGY
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR WEST.

BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS WE WILL TAP INTO AROUND 40KTS OF WIND TODAY
OVER MY CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES AS WE MIX UP TO NEAR 700MB.
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN NORTH ALONG HIGHWAY 83 TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER...AND ALL POINTS EAST. AS WE MIX OUT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND/OR TEENS...RESULTING IN
AFTERNOON PERCENT RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS NORTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL...WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20S OVER MY FAR EAST AND
FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF 00-02Z THIS EVENING AS THE NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS. AN EMBEDDED WAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LOW SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AS RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
THOUGH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY REGION IN MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS REGION REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS START
TO DIVERGE ON SOME KEY FEATURES TOWARDS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THOUGH A SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ALONG WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AFFECTING THE KMOT AND KJMS TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TODAY WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KTS WEST AND OVER 35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

A DRY AND WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN
REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

ON TUESDAY...CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 10 PM CDT /9
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 201136
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD
COVER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND HAVE PULLED IT TO THE WEST A
BIT IN LINE WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. HAVE ALSO KEPT THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE A BIT LONGER AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST HIGH RES
MODELS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WINDY AND
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
WEST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED ENERGY
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR WEST.

BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS WE WILL TAP INTO AROUND 40KTS OF WIND TODAY
OVER MY CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES AS WE MIX UP TO NEAR 700MB.
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN NORTH ALONG HIGHWAY 83 TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER...AND ALL POINTS EAST. AS WE MIX OUT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND/OR TEENS...RESULTING IN
AFTERNOON PERCENT RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS NORTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL...WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20S OVER MY FAR EAST AND
FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF 00-02Z THIS EVENING AS THE NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS. AN EMBEDDED WAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LOW SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AS RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
THOUGH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY REGION IN MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS REGION REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS START
TO DIVERGE ON SOME KEY FEATURES TOWARDS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THOUGH A SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ALONG WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AFFECTING THE KMOT AND KJMS TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TODAY WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KTS WEST AND OVER 35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

A DRY AND WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN
REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

ON TUESDAY...CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 10 PM CDT /9
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...JJS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 200935
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
435 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGRESSION TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY THIS PERIOD. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MAN. UPPER LOW FORECAST
TO CARVE OUT A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LOW FORECAST TO
DRIFT EAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LOBES OF VORTICITY TO ROTATE AROUND SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN FORECAST TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING INTO FAR WESTERN
ND AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS ND THROUGH 84 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
DRIES OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GOOD MIXING EXPECTED TODAY WITH ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 700
HPA. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR BETTER
POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE AN WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR VALLEY COUNTIES AND
WESTWARD. WILL CANCEL FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS RHS NOT IN CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOOK FOR GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS AS
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO MOVES AND A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE N PLAINS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL ENTER
EASTERN ND AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CIGS AND WIND MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CIGS
CONTINUE FROM VALLEY WEST WITH SOME SPOTTY MVFR CIGS WITHIN
VALLEY(GFK/FAR). FARTHER EAST CIGS TO REMAIN MVFR WITH IFR OVER
THE FAR EAST(BJI). AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST VFR CIGS SHOULD BECOME
MORE PREVALENT FROM VALLEY WEST WITH SOME CLEARING PSBL DVL
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FAR EAST MORE UNCERTAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING VFR CIGS BUT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON. ANY PCPN LOOKS
TO SPOTTY TO MENTION IN EASTERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOMORROW AM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AT ADVISORY LEVELS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 200935
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
435 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGRESSION TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY THIS PERIOD. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MAN. UPPER LOW FORECAST
TO CARVE OUT A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LOW FORECAST TO
DRIFT EAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LOBES OF VORTICITY TO ROTATE AROUND SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN FORECAST TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING INTO FAR WESTERN
ND AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS ND THROUGH 84 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
DRIES OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GOOD MIXING EXPECTED TODAY WITH ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 700
HPA. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR BETTER
POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE AN WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR VALLEY COUNTIES AND
WESTWARD. WILL CANCEL FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS RHS NOT IN CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOOK FOR GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS AS
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO MOVES AND A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE N PLAINS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL ENTER
EASTERN ND AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CIGS AND WIND MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CIGS
CONTINUE FROM VALLEY WEST WITH SOME SPOTTY MVFR CIGS WITHIN
VALLEY(GFK/FAR). FARTHER EAST CIGS TO REMAIN MVFR WITH IFR OVER
THE FAR EAST(BJI). AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST VFR CIGS SHOULD BECOME
MORE PREVALENT FROM VALLEY WEST WITH SOME CLEARING PSBL DVL
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FAR EAST MORE UNCERTAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING VFR CIGS BUT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON. ANY PCPN LOOKS
TO SPOTTY TO MENTION IN EASTERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOMORROW AM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AT ADVISORY LEVELS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 200935
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
435 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGRESSION TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY THIS PERIOD. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MAN. UPPER LOW FORECAST
TO CARVE OUT A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LOW FORECAST TO
DRIFT EAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LOBES OF VORTICITY TO ROTATE AROUND SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN FORECAST TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING INTO FAR WESTERN
ND AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS ND THROUGH 84 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
DRIES OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GOOD MIXING EXPECTED TODAY WITH ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 700
HPA. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR BETTER
POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE AN WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR VALLEY COUNTIES AND
WESTWARD. WILL CANCEL FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS RHS NOT IN CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOOK FOR GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS AS
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO MOVES AND A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE N PLAINS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL ENTER
EASTERN ND AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CIGS AND WIND MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CIGS
CONTINUE FROM VALLEY WEST WITH SOME SPOTTY MVFR CIGS WITHIN
VALLEY(GFK/FAR). FARTHER EAST CIGS TO REMAIN MVFR WITH IFR OVER
THE FAR EAST(BJI). AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST VFR CIGS SHOULD BECOME
MORE PREVALENT FROM VALLEY WEST WITH SOME CLEARING PSBL DVL
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FAR EAST MORE UNCERTAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING VFR CIGS BUT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON. ANY PCPN LOOKS
TO SPOTTY TO MENTION IN EASTERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOMORROW AM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AT ADVISORY LEVELS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 200935
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
435 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGRESSION TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY THIS PERIOD. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MAN. UPPER LOW FORECAST
TO CARVE OUT A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LOW FORECAST TO
DRIFT EAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LOBES OF VORTICITY TO ROTATE AROUND SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN FORECAST TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING INTO FAR WESTERN
ND AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS ND THROUGH 84 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
DRIES OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GOOD MIXING EXPECTED TODAY WITH ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 700
HPA. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR BETTER
POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE AN WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR VALLEY COUNTIES AND
WESTWARD. WILL CANCEL FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS RHS NOT IN CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOOK FOR GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS AS
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO MOVES AND A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE N PLAINS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL ENTER
EASTERN ND AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CIGS AND WIND MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CIGS
CONTINUE FROM VALLEY WEST WITH SOME SPOTTY MVFR CIGS WITHIN
VALLEY(GFK/FAR). FARTHER EAST CIGS TO REMAIN MVFR WITH IFR OVER
THE FAR EAST(BJI). AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST VFR CIGS SHOULD BECOME
MORE PREVALENT FROM VALLEY WEST WITH SOME CLEARING PSBL DVL
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FAR EAST MORE UNCERTAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING VFR CIGS BUT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON. ANY PCPN LOOKS
TO SPOTTY TO MENTION IN EASTERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOMORROW AM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AT ADVISORY LEVELS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KBIS 200906
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
406 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WINDY AND
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
WEST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED ENERGY
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR WEST.

BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS WE WILL TAP INTO AROUND 40KTS OF WIND TODAY
OVER MY CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES AS WE MIX UP TO NEAR 700MB.
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN NORTH ALONG HIGHWAY 83 TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER...AND ALL POINTS EAST. AS WE MIX OUT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND/OR TEENS...RESULTING IN
AFTERNOON PERCENT RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS NORTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL...WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20S OVER MY FAR EAST AND
FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF 00-02Z THIS EVENING AS THE NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS. AN EMBEDDED WAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LOW SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AS RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
THOUGH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY REGION IN MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS REGION REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS START
TO DIVERGE ON SOME KEY FEATURES TOWARDS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THOUGH A SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ALONG WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER LOBE OF MOISTURE DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WITH HIGH RES MODELS BRINGING
THE MVFR CIGS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL
MENTION AT KMOT-KJMS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25-30 KTS WEST AND OVER 35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

A DRY AND WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN
REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

ON TUESDAY...CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 10 PM CDT /9
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 200906
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
406 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WINDY AND
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
WEST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED ENERGY
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR WEST.

BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS WE WILL TAP INTO AROUND 40KTS OF WIND TODAY
OVER MY CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES AS WE MIX UP TO NEAR 700MB.
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN NORTH ALONG HIGHWAY 83 TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER...AND ALL POINTS EAST. AS WE MIX OUT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND/OR TEENS...RESULTING IN
AFTERNOON PERCENT RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS NORTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL...WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20S OVER MY FAR EAST AND
FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF 00-02Z THIS EVENING AS THE NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS. AN EMBEDDED WAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LOW SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AS RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
THOUGH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY REGION IN MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS REGION REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS START
TO DIVERGE ON SOME KEY FEATURES TOWARDS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THOUGH A SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ALONG WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER LOBE OF MOISTURE DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WITH HIGH RES MODELS BRINGING
THE MVFR CIGS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL
MENTION AT KMOT-KJMS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25-30 KTS WEST AND OVER 35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

A DRY AND WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN
REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

ON TUESDAY...CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 10 PM CDT /9
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...JJS









000
FXUS63 KFGF 200856
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
356 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGRESSION TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY THIS PERIOD. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MAN. UPPER LOW FORECAST
TO CARVE OUT A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LOW FORECAST TO
DRIFT EAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LOBES OF VORTICITY TO ROTATE AROUND SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN FORECAST TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING INTO FAR WESTERN
ND AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS ND THROUGH 84 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
DRIES OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GOOD MIXING EXPECTED TODAY WITH ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 700
HPA. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR BETTER
POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE AN WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR VALLEY COUNTIES AND
WESTWARD. WILL CANCEL FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS RHS NOT IN CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOOK FOR GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS AS
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO MOVES AND A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE N PLAINS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL ENTER
EASTERN ND AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CIGS AND WIND MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CIGS
CONTINUE FROM VALLEY WEST WITH SOME SPOTTY MVFR CIGS WITHIN
VALLEY(GFK/FAR). FARTHER EAST CIGS TO REMAIN MVFR WITH IFR OVER
THE FAR EAST(BJI). AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST VFR CIGS SHOULD BECOME
MORE PREVALENT FROM VALLEY WEST WITH SOME CLEARING PSBL DVL
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FAR EAST MORE UNCERTAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING VFR CIGS BUT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON. ANY PCPN LOOKS
TO SPOTTY TO MENTION IN EASTERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOMORROW AM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AT ADVISORY LEVELS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     NDZ006-014-024-028-038-049-052.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KBIS 200632
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
132 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

STILL SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS EAST...ALONG WITH A FEW OBSERVING
SITES REPORTING LIGHT RAIN OR UNKNOWN PRECIP. THUS OPTED TO
MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW THROUGH 12Z. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MY
EAST SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH A REINFORCED AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND SHOULD PROCEED INTO CENTRAL ND ALONG TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
THROUGH 10-14Z BEFORE QUICKLY ERODING WEST TO EAST.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND CONTINUE TO
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATED SKY
COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS PROBABLY
WONT DROP OFF COMPLETELY BUT SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL. NOT
SURE IF CLOUDS WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR THE EASTERN CWA SO NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES HERE. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MAIN UPDATE EARLY THIS EVENING WAS TO BUMP UP SKY COVER TO BROKEN
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN VFR LAYER AROUND 7-9KFT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND DIMINISHING TO A SCATTERED LAYER ACROSS
THE WEST. RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LITTLE INVERSION
HERE WITH MOISTURE UNDERNEATH AND IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z SOUNDING.
HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND HAVE LIMITED SHOWER MENTION TO ISOLATED
FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EASTWARD AND DISSIPATING FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 502 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

QUICK UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON TO REMOVE MENTION OF SHOWERS WEST AND
THUNDER CENTRAL AND WEST. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE CENTRAL WITH NO LIGHTNING CG STRIKES
INDICATED YET. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON THE WANE...WILL REMOVE
THUNDER CENTRAL AND GO WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE NO CHANGES EXCEPT TO UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS. WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA. HAVE HAD MANY
REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL UP TO PEA SIZE WITH THESE SHOWERS...AND HAVE
MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION WITH LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION IN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN OF FADING WITH THE
APPROACH OF SUNSET. REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF US.
HOWEVER...NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CURVED JET
AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS COULD SPARK SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. QUIET AND COOL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND HIGH RES MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOBE OF MOISTURE
DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS AND THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS. WILL MENTION AT KMOT-KJMS. WINDS WILL
PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS WEST AND POSSIBLY
OVER 35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...A DRY AND
WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3
WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH. TO THE EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3 ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS NEAR 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED...WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GREEN UP OF
VEGETATION...RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 10 PM CDT /9
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 200632
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
132 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

STILL SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS EAST...ALONG WITH A FEW OBSERVING
SITES REPORTING LIGHT RAIN OR UNKNOWN PRECIP. THUS OPTED TO
MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW THROUGH 12Z. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MY
EAST SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH A REINFORCED AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND SHOULD PROCEED INTO CENTRAL ND ALONG TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
THROUGH 10-14Z BEFORE QUICKLY ERODING WEST TO EAST.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND CONTINUE TO
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATED SKY
COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS PROBABLY
WONT DROP OFF COMPLETELY BUT SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL. NOT
SURE IF CLOUDS WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR THE EASTERN CWA SO NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES HERE. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MAIN UPDATE EARLY THIS EVENING WAS TO BUMP UP SKY COVER TO BROKEN
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN VFR LAYER AROUND 7-9KFT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND DIMINISHING TO A SCATTERED LAYER ACROSS
THE WEST. RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LITTLE INVERSION
HERE WITH MOISTURE UNDERNEATH AND IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z SOUNDING.
HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND HAVE LIMITED SHOWER MENTION TO ISOLATED
FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EASTWARD AND DISSIPATING FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 502 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

QUICK UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON TO REMOVE MENTION OF SHOWERS WEST AND
THUNDER CENTRAL AND WEST. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE CENTRAL WITH NO LIGHTNING CG STRIKES
INDICATED YET. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON THE WANE...WILL REMOVE
THUNDER CENTRAL AND GO WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE NO CHANGES EXCEPT TO UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS. WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA. HAVE HAD MANY
REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL UP TO PEA SIZE WITH THESE SHOWERS...AND HAVE
MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION WITH LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION IN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN OF FADING WITH THE
APPROACH OF SUNSET. REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF US.
HOWEVER...NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CURVED JET
AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS COULD SPARK SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. QUIET AND COOL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND HIGH RES MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOBE OF MOISTURE
DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS AND THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS. WILL MENTION AT KMOT-KJMS. WINDS WILL
PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS WEST AND POSSIBLY
OVER 35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...A DRY AND
WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3
WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH. TO THE EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3 ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS NEAR 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED...WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GREEN UP OF
VEGETATION...RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 10 PM CDT /9
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 200632
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
132 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

STILL SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS EAST...ALONG WITH A FEW OBSERVING
SITES REPORTING LIGHT RAIN OR UNKNOWN PRECIP. THUS OPTED TO
MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW THROUGH 12Z. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MY
EAST SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH A REINFORCED AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND SHOULD PROCEED INTO CENTRAL ND ALONG TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
THROUGH 10-14Z BEFORE QUICKLY ERODING WEST TO EAST.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND CONTINUE TO
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATED SKY
COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS PROBABLY
WONT DROP OFF COMPLETELY BUT SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL. NOT
SURE IF CLOUDS WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR THE EASTERN CWA SO NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES HERE. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MAIN UPDATE EARLY THIS EVENING WAS TO BUMP UP SKY COVER TO BROKEN
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN VFR LAYER AROUND 7-9KFT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND DIMINISHING TO A SCATTERED LAYER ACROSS
THE WEST. RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LITTLE INVERSION
HERE WITH MOISTURE UNDERNEATH AND IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z SOUNDING.
HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND HAVE LIMITED SHOWER MENTION TO ISOLATED
FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EASTWARD AND DISSIPATING FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 502 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

QUICK UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON TO REMOVE MENTION OF SHOWERS WEST AND
THUNDER CENTRAL AND WEST. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE CENTRAL WITH NO LIGHTNING CG STRIKES
INDICATED YET. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON THE WANE...WILL REMOVE
THUNDER CENTRAL AND GO WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE NO CHANGES EXCEPT TO UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS. WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA. HAVE HAD MANY
REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL UP TO PEA SIZE WITH THESE SHOWERS...AND HAVE
MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION WITH LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION IN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN OF FADING WITH THE
APPROACH OF SUNSET. REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF US.
HOWEVER...NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CURVED JET
AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS COULD SPARK SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. QUIET AND COOL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND HIGH RES MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOBE OF MOISTURE
DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS AND THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS. WILL MENTION AT KMOT-KJMS. WINDS WILL
PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS WEST AND POSSIBLY
OVER 35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...A DRY AND
WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3
WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH. TO THE EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3 ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS NEAR 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED...WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GREEN UP OF
VEGETATION...RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 10 PM CDT /9
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 200632
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
132 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

STILL SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS EAST...ALONG WITH A FEW OBSERVING
SITES REPORTING LIGHT RAIN OR UNKNOWN PRECIP. THUS OPTED TO
MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW THROUGH 12Z. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MY
EAST SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH A REINFORCED AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND SHOULD PROCEED INTO CENTRAL ND ALONG TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
THROUGH 10-14Z BEFORE QUICKLY ERODING WEST TO EAST.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND CONTINUE TO
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATED SKY
COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS PROBABLY
WONT DROP OFF COMPLETELY BUT SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL. NOT
SURE IF CLOUDS WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR THE EASTERN CWA SO NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES HERE. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MAIN UPDATE EARLY THIS EVENING WAS TO BUMP UP SKY COVER TO BROKEN
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN VFR LAYER AROUND 7-9KFT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND DIMINISHING TO A SCATTERED LAYER ACROSS
THE WEST. RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LITTLE INVERSION
HERE WITH MOISTURE UNDERNEATH AND IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z SOUNDING.
HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND HAVE LIMITED SHOWER MENTION TO ISOLATED
FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EASTWARD AND DISSIPATING FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 502 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

QUICK UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON TO REMOVE MENTION OF SHOWERS WEST AND
THUNDER CENTRAL AND WEST. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE CENTRAL WITH NO LIGHTNING CG STRIKES
INDICATED YET. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON THE WANE...WILL REMOVE
THUNDER CENTRAL AND GO WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE NO CHANGES EXCEPT TO UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS. WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA. HAVE HAD MANY
REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL UP TO PEA SIZE WITH THESE SHOWERS...AND HAVE
MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION WITH LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION IN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN OF FADING WITH THE
APPROACH OF SUNSET. REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF US.
HOWEVER...NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CURVED JET
AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS COULD SPARK SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. QUIET AND COOL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND HIGH RES MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOBE OF MOISTURE
DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS AND THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS. WILL MENTION AT KMOT-KJMS. WINDS WILL
PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS WEST AND POSSIBLY
OVER 35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...A DRY AND
WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3
WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH. TO THE EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3 ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS NEAR 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED...WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GREEN UP OF
VEGETATION...RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 10 PM CDT /9
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...AYD






000
FXUS63 KFGF 200435
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1135 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS EASTERN ND. IN ADDITION SOME
WEAK RETURNS SAGGING SOUTH OUT OF FAR SE MB. WHILE MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS SLIM WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLD POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING TO COVER ABOVE RADAR RETURNS. APPEARS BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER BECOMING LESS AND LESS SO HELD ON TO CLOUD COVER
LONGER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE FA AS -RA WEAKENING
IN LINE WITH MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

500MB TROUGH WILL SWING NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE BAUDETTE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO CANADA AS A RESULT...AND THE INSTABILITY
SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER COLD POOL SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NOT SURE ABOUT CLOUD
COVER...BUT MIXING SHOULD CONTINUE SINCE THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL NOT WEAKEN. MIN TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST
WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE. THIS WILL LEAD
TO PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. MODEL
925MB-850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW IN THIS
AREA...ALTHOUGH RAIN SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DURING PEAK HEATING
WHEN THE LOWEST LAYER GETS INTO THE MID-30S. AT ANY
RATE...SNOWFALL RATES APPEAR LIGHT...AND SOME MELTING SHOULD
OCCUR ON WARM GROUND SURFACES. MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING MAY
GET AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. TO THE
WEST...COLD POOL ALOFT LIKELY WILL LEAD TO ISOLD-SCATTERED
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS.

WIND POTENTIAL...WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON MONDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
(ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY). MIXING POTENTIAL OF WINDS ALOFT
TO THE SFC IS UNCERTAIN SO NOT SURE HOW LONG ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
WINDS WOULD LAST. STILL SOME TIME TO MONITOR AND ASSESS BEFORE
NEEDING TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY.

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS STRONG ENOUGH FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA. FIRE WEATHER WATCH
SEEMS APPROPRIATE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (SEE
FIRE WX SECTION).

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WILL
EXIT. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON TUESDAY
(STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE DEGREE OF TEMP
RECOVERY AS THE 500MB LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST. THE GFS AND GEM
KEEP A FLATTER WEST-NW FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS RIDGING
DEVELOPING MUCH QUICKER. THEREFORE THERMAL FIELDS ARE QUITE A BIT
DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS...WHICH RESULTS IN A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOW WARMING TREND
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH IS FINE FOR NOW. KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY UNTIL SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CIGS AND WIND MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CIGS
CONTINUE FROM VALLEY WEST WITH SOME SPOTTY MVFR CIGS WITHIN
VALLEY(GFK/FAR). FARTHER EAST CIGS TO REMAIN MVFR WITH IFR OVER
THE FAR EAST(BJI). AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST VFR CIGS SHOULD BECOME
MORE PREVALENT FROM VALLEY WEST WITH SOME CLEARING PSBL DVL
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FAR EAST MORE UNCERTAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING VFR CIGS BUT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON. ANY PCPN LOOKS
TO SPOTTY TO MENTION IN EASTERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOMORROW AM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH
COOLER AIR FILTERING IN AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER MOST OF
THE AREA. WITH RECENT RAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF RESPITE IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE...WITH WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MILES PER HOUR. NOT EXPECTING AN INVERSION TO SET UP AT
THIS TIME...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL OVERNIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE SYSTEM. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED IN MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S. COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING
AND THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA DURING THAT PERIOD. IF MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL
ANOTHER 5 TO 10 PERCENT IN THE ZONES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...CONDITIONS WOULD MEET CRITICAL CRITERIA. THUS...A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...FROM TOWNER COUNTY SOUTH TO
SARGENT COUNTY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AND A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR NDZ006-014-024-028-038-049-052.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 200435
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1135 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS EASTERN ND. IN ADDITION SOME
WEAK RETURNS SAGGING SOUTH OUT OF FAR SE MB. WHILE MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS SLIM WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLD POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING TO COVER ABOVE RADAR RETURNS. APPEARS BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER BECOMING LESS AND LESS SO HELD ON TO CLOUD COVER
LONGER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE FA AS -RA WEAKENING
IN LINE WITH MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

500MB TROUGH WILL SWING NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE BAUDETTE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO CANADA AS A RESULT...AND THE INSTABILITY
SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER COLD POOL SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NOT SURE ABOUT CLOUD
COVER...BUT MIXING SHOULD CONTINUE SINCE THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL NOT WEAKEN. MIN TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST
WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE. THIS WILL LEAD
TO PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. MODEL
925MB-850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW IN THIS
AREA...ALTHOUGH RAIN SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DURING PEAK HEATING
WHEN THE LOWEST LAYER GETS INTO THE MID-30S. AT ANY
RATE...SNOWFALL RATES APPEAR LIGHT...AND SOME MELTING SHOULD
OCCUR ON WARM GROUND SURFACES. MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING MAY
GET AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. TO THE
WEST...COLD POOL ALOFT LIKELY WILL LEAD TO ISOLD-SCATTERED
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS.

WIND POTENTIAL...WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON MONDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
(ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY). MIXING POTENTIAL OF WINDS ALOFT
TO THE SFC IS UNCERTAIN SO NOT SURE HOW LONG ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
WINDS WOULD LAST. STILL SOME TIME TO MONITOR AND ASSESS BEFORE
NEEDING TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY.

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS STRONG ENOUGH FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA. FIRE WEATHER WATCH
SEEMS APPROPRIATE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (SEE
FIRE WX SECTION).

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WILL
EXIT. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON TUESDAY
(STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE DEGREE OF TEMP
RECOVERY AS THE 500MB LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST. THE GFS AND GEM
KEEP A FLATTER WEST-NW FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS RIDGING
DEVELOPING MUCH QUICKER. THEREFORE THERMAL FIELDS ARE QUITE A BIT
DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS...WHICH RESULTS IN A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOW WARMING TREND
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH IS FINE FOR NOW. KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY UNTIL SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CIGS AND WIND MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CIGS
CONTINUE FROM VALLEY WEST WITH SOME SPOTTY MVFR CIGS WITHIN
VALLEY(GFK/FAR). FARTHER EAST CIGS TO REMAIN MVFR WITH IFR OVER
THE FAR EAST(BJI). AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST VFR CIGS SHOULD BECOME
MORE PREVALENT FROM VALLEY WEST WITH SOME CLEARING PSBL DVL
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FAR EAST MORE UNCERTAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING VFR CIGS BUT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON. ANY PCPN LOOKS
TO SPOTTY TO MENTION IN EASTERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOMORROW AM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH
COOLER AIR FILTERING IN AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER MOST OF
THE AREA. WITH RECENT RAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF RESPITE IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE...WITH WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MILES PER HOUR. NOT EXPECTING AN INVERSION TO SET UP AT
THIS TIME...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL OVERNIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE SYSTEM. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED IN MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S. COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING
AND THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA DURING THAT PERIOD. IF MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL
ANOTHER 5 TO 10 PERCENT IN THE ZONES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...CONDITIONS WOULD MEET CRITICAL CRITERIA. THUS...A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...FROM TOWNER COUNTY SOUTH TO
SARGENT COUNTY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AND A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR NDZ006-014-024-028-038-049-052.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 200250
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
950 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS EASTERN ND. IN ADDITION SOME
WEAK RETURNS SAGGING SOUTH OUT OF FAR SE MB. WHILE MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS SLIM WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLD POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING TO COVER ABOVE RADAR RETURNS. APPEARS BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER BECOMING LESS AND LESS SO HELD ON TO CLOUD COVER
LONGER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE FA AS -RA WEAKENING
IN LINE WITH MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

500MB TROUGH WILL SWING NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE BAUDETTE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO CANADA AS A RESULT...AND THE INSTABILITY
SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER COLD POOL SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NOT SURE ABOUT CLOUD
COVER...BUT MIXING SHOULD CONTINUE SINCE THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL NOT WEAKEN. MIN TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST
WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE. THIS WILL LEAD
TO PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. MODEL
925MB-850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW IN THIS
AREA...ALTHOUGH RAIN SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DURING PEAK HEATING
WHEN THE LOWEST LAYER GETS INTO THE MID-30S. AT ANY
RATE...SNOWFALL RATES APPEAR LIGHT...AND SOME MELTING SHOULD
OCCUR ON WARM GROUND SURFACES. MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING MAY
GET AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. TO THE
WEST...COLD POOL ALOFT LIKELY WILL LEAD TO ISOLD-SCATTERED
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS.

WIND POTENTIAL...WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON MONDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
(ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY). MIXING POTENTIAL OF WINDS ALOFT
TO THE SFC IS UNCERTAIN SO NOT SURE HOW LONG ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
WINDS WOULD LAST. STILL SOME TIME TO MONITOR AND ASSESS BEFORE
NEEDING TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY.

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS STRONG ENOUGH FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA. FIRE WEATHER WATCH
SEEMS APPROPRIATE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (SEE
FIRE WX SECTION).

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WILL
EXIT. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON TUESDAY
(STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE DEGREE OF TEMP
RECOVERY AS THE 500MB LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST. THE GFS AND GEM
KEEP A FLATTER WEST-NW FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS RIDGING
DEVELOPING MUCH QUICKER. THEREFORE THERMAL FIELDS ARE QUITE A BIT
DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS...WHICH RESULTS IN A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOW WARMING TREND
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH IS FINE FOR NOW. KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY UNTIL SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CIGS WILL BE THE BIG CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD AS TO HEIGHT AND HOW
MUCH CLOUD COVER IS LOST WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CIGS RANGE FROM VFR
WEST OF THE VALLEY TO IFR ACROSS THE FAR EAST. TRENDED UP A
CATEGORY THROUGH THE EVENING BUT NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE.
WINDS TO REV UP AGAIN TOMORROW AM.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH
COOLER AIR FILTERING IN AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER MOST OF
THE AREA. WITH RECENT RAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF RESPITE IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE...WITH WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MILES PER HOUR. NOT EXPECTING AN INVERSION TO SET UP AT
THIS TIME...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL OVERNIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE SYSTEM. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED IN MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S. COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING
AND THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA DURING THAT PERIOD. IF MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL
ANOTHER 5 TO 10 PERCENT IN THE ZONES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...CONDITIONS WOULD MEET CRITICAL CRITERIA. THUS...A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...FROM TOWNER COUNTY SOUTH TO
SARGENT COUNTY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AND A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR NDZ006-014-024-028-038-049-052.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 200240
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
940 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND CONTINUE TO
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATED SKY
COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS PROBABLY
WONT DROP OFF COMPLETELY BUT SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL. NOT
SURE IF CLOUDS WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR THE EASTERN CWA SO NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES HERE. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MAIN UPDATE EARLY THIS EVENING WAS TO BUMP UP SKY COVER TO BROKEN
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN VFR LAYER AROUND 7-9KFT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND DIMINISHING TO A SCATTERED LAYER ACROSS
THE WEST. RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LITTLE INVERSION
HERE WITH MOISTURE UNDERNEATH AND IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z SOUNDING.
HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND HAVE LIMITED SHOWER MENTION TO ISOLATED
FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EASTWARD AND DISSIPATING FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 502 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

QUICK UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON TO REMOVE MENTION OF SHOWERS WEST AND
THUNDER CENTRAL AND WEST. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE CENTRAL WITH NO LIGHTNING CG STRIKES
INDICATED YET. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON THE WANE...WILL REMOVE
THUNDER CENTRAL AND GO WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE NO CHANGES EXCEPT TO UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS. WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA. HAVE HAD MANY
REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL UP TO PEA SIZE WITH THESE SHOWERS...AND HAVE
MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION WITH LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION IN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN OF FADING WITH THE
APPROACH OF SUNSET. REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF US.
HOWEVER...NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CURVED JET
AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS COULD SPARK SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. QUIET AND COOL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. HRRR
CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER LOBE OF MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS.
WILL MONITOR FOR NOW BUT KEEP WITH VFR CEILINGS. NORTHWEST WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING BUT PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KTS WEST AND POSSIBLY OVER 35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...A DRY AND
WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3
WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH. TO THE EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3 ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS NEAR 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED...WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GREEN UP OF
VEGETATION...RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ MONDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-
050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 200240
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
940 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND CONTINUE TO
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATED SKY
COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS PROBABLY
WONT DROP OFF COMPLETELY BUT SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL. NOT
SURE IF CLOUDS WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR THE EASTERN CWA SO NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES HERE. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MAIN UPDATE EARLY THIS EVENING WAS TO BUMP UP SKY COVER TO BROKEN
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN VFR LAYER AROUND 7-9KFT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND DIMINISHING TO A SCATTERED LAYER ACROSS
THE WEST. RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LITTLE INVERSION
HERE WITH MOISTURE UNDERNEATH AND IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z SOUNDING.
HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND HAVE LIMITED SHOWER MENTION TO ISOLATED
FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EASTWARD AND DISSIPATING FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 502 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

QUICK UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON TO REMOVE MENTION OF SHOWERS WEST AND
THUNDER CENTRAL AND WEST. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE CENTRAL WITH NO LIGHTNING CG STRIKES
INDICATED YET. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON THE WANE...WILL REMOVE
THUNDER CENTRAL AND GO WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE NO CHANGES EXCEPT TO UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS. WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA. HAVE HAD MANY
REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL UP TO PEA SIZE WITH THESE SHOWERS...AND HAVE
MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION WITH LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION IN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN OF FADING WITH THE
APPROACH OF SUNSET. REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF US.
HOWEVER...NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CURVED JET
AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS COULD SPARK SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. QUIET AND COOL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. HRRR
CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER LOBE OF MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS.
WILL MONITOR FOR NOW BUT KEEP WITH VFR CEILINGS. NORTHWEST WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING BUT PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KTS WEST AND POSSIBLY OVER 35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...A DRY AND
WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3
WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH. TO THE EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3 ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS NEAR 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED...WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GREEN UP OF
VEGETATION...RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ MONDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-
050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 200240
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
940 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND CONTINUE TO
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATED SKY
COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS PROBABLY
WONT DROP OFF COMPLETELY BUT SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL. NOT
SURE IF CLOUDS WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR THE EASTERN CWA SO NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES HERE. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MAIN UPDATE EARLY THIS EVENING WAS TO BUMP UP SKY COVER TO BROKEN
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN VFR LAYER AROUND 7-9KFT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND DIMINISHING TO A SCATTERED LAYER ACROSS
THE WEST. RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LITTLE INVERSION
HERE WITH MOISTURE UNDERNEATH AND IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z SOUNDING.
HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND HAVE LIMITED SHOWER MENTION TO ISOLATED
FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EASTWARD AND DISSIPATING FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 502 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

QUICK UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON TO REMOVE MENTION OF SHOWERS WEST AND
THUNDER CENTRAL AND WEST. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE CENTRAL WITH NO LIGHTNING CG STRIKES
INDICATED YET. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON THE WANE...WILL REMOVE
THUNDER CENTRAL AND GO WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE NO CHANGES EXCEPT TO UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS. WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA. HAVE HAD MANY
REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL UP TO PEA SIZE WITH THESE SHOWERS...AND HAVE
MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION WITH LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION IN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN OF FADING WITH THE
APPROACH OF SUNSET. REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF US.
HOWEVER...NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CURVED JET
AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS COULD SPARK SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. QUIET AND COOL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. HRRR
CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER LOBE OF MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS.
WILL MONITOR FOR NOW BUT KEEP WITH VFR CEILINGS. NORTHWEST WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING BUT PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KTS WEST AND POSSIBLY OVER 35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...A DRY AND
WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3
WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH. TO THE EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3 ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS NEAR 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED...WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GREEN UP OF
VEGETATION...RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ MONDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-
050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 200240
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
940 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND CONTINUE TO
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATED SKY
COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS PROBABLY
WONT DROP OFF COMPLETELY BUT SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL. NOT
SURE IF CLOUDS WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR THE EASTERN CWA SO NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES HERE. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MAIN UPDATE EARLY THIS EVENING WAS TO BUMP UP SKY COVER TO BROKEN
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN VFR LAYER AROUND 7-9KFT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND DIMINISHING TO A SCATTERED LAYER ACROSS
THE WEST. RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LITTLE INVERSION
HERE WITH MOISTURE UNDERNEATH AND IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z SOUNDING.
HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND HAVE LIMITED SHOWER MENTION TO ISOLATED
FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EASTWARD AND DISSIPATING FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 502 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

QUICK UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON TO REMOVE MENTION OF SHOWERS WEST AND
THUNDER CENTRAL AND WEST. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE CENTRAL WITH NO LIGHTNING CG STRIKES
INDICATED YET. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON THE WANE...WILL REMOVE
THUNDER CENTRAL AND GO WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE NO CHANGES EXCEPT TO UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS. WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA. HAVE HAD MANY
REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL UP TO PEA SIZE WITH THESE SHOWERS...AND HAVE
MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION WITH LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION IN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN OF FADING WITH THE
APPROACH OF SUNSET. REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF US.
HOWEVER...NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CURVED JET
AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS COULD SPARK SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. QUIET AND COOL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. HRRR
CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER LOBE OF MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS.
WILL MONITOR FOR NOW BUT KEEP WITH VFR CEILINGS. NORTHWEST WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING BUT PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KTS WEST AND POSSIBLY OVER 35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...A DRY AND
WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3
WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH. TO THE EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3 ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS NEAR 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED...WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GREEN UP OF
VEGETATION...RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ MONDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-
050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 200240
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
940 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND CONTINUE TO
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATED SKY
COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS PROBABLY
WONT DROP OFF COMPLETELY BUT SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL. NOT
SURE IF CLOUDS WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR THE EASTERN CWA SO NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES HERE. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MAIN UPDATE EARLY THIS EVENING WAS TO BUMP UP SKY COVER TO BROKEN
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN VFR LAYER AROUND 7-9KFT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND DIMINISHING TO A SCATTERED LAYER ACROSS
THE WEST. RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LITTLE INVERSION
HERE WITH MOISTURE UNDERNEATH AND IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z SOUNDING.
HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND HAVE LIMITED SHOWER MENTION TO ISOLATED
FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EASTWARD AND DISSIPATING FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 502 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

QUICK UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON TO REMOVE MENTION OF SHOWERS WEST AND
THUNDER CENTRAL AND WEST. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE CENTRAL WITH NO LIGHTNING CG STRIKES
INDICATED YET. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON THE WANE...WILL REMOVE
THUNDER CENTRAL AND GO WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE NO CHANGES EXCEPT TO UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS. WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA. HAVE HAD MANY
REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL UP TO PEA SIZE WITH THESE SHOWERS...AND HAVE
MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION WITH LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION IN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN OF FADING WITH THE
APPROACH OF SUNSET. REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF US.
HOWEVER...NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CURVED JET
AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS COULD SPARK SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. QUIET AND COOL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. HRRR
CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER LOBE OF MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS.
WILL MONITOR FOR NOW BUT KEEP WITH VFR CEILINGS. NORTHWEST WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING BUT PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KTS WEST AND POSSIBLY OVER 35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...A DRY AND
WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3
WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH. TO THE EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3 ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS NEAR 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED...WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GREEN UP OF
VEGETATION...RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ MONDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-
050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 192347
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
647 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MAIN UPDATE EARLY THIS EVENING WAS TO BUMP UP SKY COVER TO BROKEN
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN VFR LAYER AROUND 7-9KFT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND DIMINISHING TO A SCATTERED LAYER ACROSS
THE WEST. RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LITTLE INVERSION
HERE WITH MOISTURE UNDERNEATH AND IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z SOUNDING.
HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND HAVE LIMITED SHOWER MENTION TO ISOLATED
FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EASTWARD AND DISSIPATING FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 502 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

QUICK UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON TO REMOVE MENTION OF SHOWERS WEST AND
THUNDER CENTRAL AND WEST. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE CENTRAL WITH NO LIGHTNING CG STRIKES
INDICATED YET. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON THE WANE...WILL REMOVE
THUNDER CENTRAL AND GO WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE NO CHANGES EXCEPT TO UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS. WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA. HAVE HAD MANY
REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL UP TO PEA SIZE WITH THESE SHOWERS...AND HAVE
MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION WITH LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION IN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN OF FADING WITH THE
APPROACH OF SUNSET. REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF US.
HOWEVER...NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CURVED JET
AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS COULD SPARK SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. QUIET AND COOL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. HRRR DOES
SHOW ANOTHER LOBE OF MOISTURE DROPPING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS. WILL MONITOR FOR
NOW BUT KEEP WITH VFR CEILINGS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS WEST
AND POSSIBLY OVER 35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...A DRY AND
WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3
WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH. TO THE EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3 ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS NEAR 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED...WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GREEN UP OF
VEGETATION...RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ MONDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-
050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 192347
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
647 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MAIN UPDATE EARLY THIS EVENING WAS TO BUMP UP SKY COVER TO BROKEN
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN VFR LAYER AROUND 7-9KFT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND DIMINISHING TO A SCATTERED LAYER ACROSS
THE WEST. RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LITTLE INVERSION
HERE WITH MOISTURE UNDERNEATH AND IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z SOUNDING.
HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND HAVE LIMITED SHOWER MENTION TO ISOLATED
FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EASTWARD AND DISSIPATING FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 502 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

QUICK UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON TO REMOVE MENTION OF SHOWERS WEST AND
THUNDER CENTRAL AND WEST. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE CENTRAL WITH NO LIGHTNING CG STRIKES
INDICATED YET. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON THE WANE...WILL REMOVE
THUNDER CENTRAL AND GO WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE NO CHANGES EXCEPT TO UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS. WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA. HAVE HAD MANY
REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL UP TO PEA SIZE WITH THESE SHOWERS...AND HAVE
MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION WITH LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION IN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN OF FADING WITH THE
APPROACH OF SUNSET. REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF US.
HOWEVER...NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CURVED JET
AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS COULD SPARK SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. QUIET AND COOL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. HRRR DOES
SHOW ANOTHER LOBE OF MOISTURE DROPPING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS. WILL MONITOR FOR
NOW BUT KEEP WITH VFR CEILINGS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS WEST
AND POSSIBLY OVER 35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...A DRY AND
WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3
WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH. TO THE EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3 ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS NEAR 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED...WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GREEN UP OF
VEGETATION...RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ MONDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-
050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 192347
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
647 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MAIN UPDATE EARLY THIS EVENING WAS TO BUMP UP SKY COVER TO BROKEN
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN VFR LAYER AROUND 7-9KFT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND DIMINISHING TO A SCATTERED LAYER ACROSS
THE WEST. RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LITTLE INVERSION
HERE WITH MOISTURE UNDERNEATH AND IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z SOUNDING.
HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND HAVE LIMITED SHOWER MENTION TO ISOLATED
FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EASTWARD AND DISSIPATING FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 502 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

QUICK UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON TO REMOVE MENTION OF SHOWERS WEST AND
THUNDER CENTRAL AND WEST. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE CENTRAL WITH NO LIGHTNING CG STRIKES
INDICATED YET. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON THE WANE...WILL REMOVE
THUNDER CENTRAL AND GO WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE NO CHANGES EXCEPT TO UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS. WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA. HAVE HAD MANY
REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL UP TO PEA SIZE WITH THESE SHOWERS...AND HAVE
MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION WITH LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION IN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN OF FADING WITH THE
APPROACH OF SUNSET. REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF US.
HOWEVER...NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CURVED JET
AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS COULD SPARK SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. QUIET AND COOL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. HRRR DOES
SHOW ANOTHER LOBE OF MOISTURE DROPPING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS. WILL MONITOR FOR
NOW BUT KEEP WITH VFR CEILINGS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS WEST
AND POSSIBLY OVER 35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...A DRY AND
WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3
WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH. TO THE EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3 ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS NEAR 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED...WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GREEN UP OF
VEGETATION...RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ MONDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-
050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 192347
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
647 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MAIN UPDATE EARLY THIS EVENING WAS TO BUMP UP SKY COVER TO BROKEN
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN VFR LAYER AROUND 7-9KFT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND DIMINISHING TO A SCATTERED LAYER ACROSS
THE WEST. RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LITTLE INVERSION
HERE WITH MOISTURE UNDERNEATH AND IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z SOUNDING.
HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND HAVE LIMITED SHOWER MENTION TO ISOLATED
FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EASTWARD AND DISSIPATING FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 502 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

QUICK UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON TO REMOVE MENTION OF SHOWERS WEST AND
THUNDER CENTRAL AND WEST. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE CENTRAL WITH NO LIGHTNING CG STRIKES
INDICATED YET. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON THE WANE...WILL REMOVE
THUNDER CENTRAL AND GO WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE NO CHANGES EXCEPT TO UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS. WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA. HAVE HAD MANY
REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL UP TO PEA SIZE WITH THESE SHOWERS...AND HAVE
MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION WITH LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION IN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN OF FADING WITH THE
APPROACH OF SUNSET. REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF US.
HOWEVER...NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CURVED JET
AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS COULD SPARK SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. QUIET AND COOL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. HRRR DOES
SHOW ANOTHER LOBE OF MOISTURE DROPPING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS. WILL MONITOR FOR
NOW BUT KEEP WITH VFR CEILINGS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS WEST
AND POSSIBLY OVER 35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...A DRY AND
WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3
WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH. TO THE EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3 ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS NEAR 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED...WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GREEN UP OF
VEGETATION...RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ MONDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-
050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...AYD






000
FXUS63 KFGF 192340
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
640 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE FA AS -RA WEAKENING
IN LINE WITH MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

500MB TROUGH WILL SWING NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE BAUDETTE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO CANADA AS A RESULT...AND THE INSTABILITY
SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER COLD POOL SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NOT SURE ABOUT CLOUD
COVER...BUT MIXING SHOULD CONTINUE SINCE THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL NOT WEAKEN. MIN TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST
WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE. THIS WILL LEAD
TO PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. MODEL
925MB-850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW IN THIS
AREA...ALTHOUGH RAIN SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DURING PEAK HEATING
WHEN THE LOWEST LAYER GETS INTO THE MID-30S. AT ANY
RATE...SNOWFALL RATES APPEAR LIGHT...AND SOME MELTING SHOULD
OCCUR ON WARM GROUND SURFACES. MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING MAY
GET AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. TO THE
WEST...COLD POOL ALOFT LIKELY WILL LEAD TO ISOLD-SCATTERED
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS.

WIND POTENTIAL...WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON MONDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
(ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY). MIXING POTENTIAL OF WINDS ALOFT
TO THE SFC IS UNCERTAIN SO NOT SURE HOW LONG ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
WINDS WOULD LAST. STILL SOME TIME TO MONITOR AND ASSESS BEFORE
NEEDING TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY.

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS STRONG ENOUGH FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA. FIRE WEATHER WATCH
SEEMS APPROPRIATE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (SEE
FIRE WX SECTION).

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WILL
EXIT. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON TUESDAY
(STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE DEGREE OF TEMP
RECOVERY AS THE 500MB LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST. THE GFS AND GEM
KEEP A FLATTER WEST-NW FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS RIDGING
DEVELOPING MUCH QUICKER. THEREFORE THERMAL FIELDS ARE QUITE A BIT
DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS...WHICH RESULTS IN A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOW WARMING TREND
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH IS FINE FOR NOW. KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY UNTIL SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CIGS WILL BE THE BIG CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD AS TO HEIGHT AND HOW
MUCH CLOUD COVER IS LOST WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CIGS RANGE FROM VFR
WEST OF THE VALLEY TO IFR ACROSS THE FAR EAST. TRENDED UP A
CATEGORY THROUGH THE EVENING BUT NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE.
WINDS TO REV UP AGAIN TOMORROW AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH
COOLER AIR FILTERING IN AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER MOST OF
THE AREA. WITH RECENT RAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF RESPITE IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE...WITH WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MILES PER HOUR. NOT EXPECTING AN INVERSION TO SET UP AT
THIS TIME...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL OVERNIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE SYSTEM. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED IN MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S. COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING
AND THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA DURING THAT PERIOD. IF MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL
ANOTHER 5 TO 10 PERCENT IN THE ZONES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...CONDITIONS WOULD MEET CRITICAL CRITERIA. THUS...A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...FROM TOWNER COUNTY SOUTH TO
SARGENT COUNTY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AND A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR NDZ006-014-024-028-038-049-052.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 192340
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
640 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE FA AS -RA WEAKENING
IN LINE WITH MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

500MB TROUGH WILL SWING NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE BAUDETTE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO CANADA AS A RESULT...AND THE INSTABILITY
SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER COLD POOL SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NOT SURE ABOUT CLOUD
COVER...BUT MIXING SHOULD CONTINUE SINCE THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL NOT WEAKEN. MIN TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST
WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE. THIS WILL LEAD
TO PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. MODEL
925MB-850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW IN THIS
AREA...ALTHOUGH RAIN SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DURING PEAK HEATING
WHEN THE LOWEST LAYER GETS INTO THE MID-30S. AT ANY
RATE...SNOWFALL RATES APPEAR LIGHT...AND SOME MELTING SHOULD
OCCUR ON WARM GROUND SURFACES. MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING MAY
GET AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. TO THE
WEST...COLD POOL ALOFT LIKELY WILL LEAD TO ISOLD-SCATTERED
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS.

WIND POTENTIAL...WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON MONDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
(ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY). MIXING POTENTIAL OF WINDS ALOFT
TO THE SFC IS UNCERTAIN SO NOT SURE HOW LONG ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
WINDS WOULD LAST. STILL SOME TIME TO MONITOR AND ASSESS BEFORE
NEEDING TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY.

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS STRONG ENOUGH FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA. FIRE WEATHER WATCH
SEEMS APPROPRIATE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (SEE
FIRE WX SECTION).

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WILL
EXIT. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON TUESDAY
(STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE DEGREE OF TEMP
RECOVERY AS THE 500MB LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST. THE GFS AND GEM
KEEP A FLATTER WEST-NW FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS RIDGING
DEVELOPING MUCH QUICKER. THEREFORE THERMAL FIELDS ARE QUITE A BIT
DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS...WHICH RESULTS IN A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOW WARMING TREND
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH IS FINE FOR NOW. KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY UNTIL SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CIGS WILL BE THE BIG CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD AS TO HEIGHT AND HOW
MUCH CLOUD COVER IS LOST WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CIGS RANGE FROM VFR
WEST OF THE VALLEY TO IFR ACROSS THE FAR EAST. TRENDED UP A
CATEGORY THROUGH THE EVENING BUT NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE.
WINDS TO REV UP AGAIN TOMORROW AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH
COOLER AIR FILTERING IN AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER MOST OF
THE AREA. WITH RECENT RAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF RESPITE IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE...WITH WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MILES PER HOUR. NOT EXPECTING AN INVERSION TO SET UP AT
THIS TIME...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL OVERNIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE SYSTEM. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED IN MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S. COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING
AND THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA DURING THAT PERIOD. IF MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL
ANOTHER 5 TO 10 PERCENT IN THE ZONES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...CONDITIONS WOULD MEET CRITICAL CRITERIA. THUS...A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...FROM TOWNER COUNTY SOUTH TO
SARGENT COUNTY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AND A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR NDZ006-014-024-028-038-049-052.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 192202
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
502 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 502 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

QUICK UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON TO REMOVE MENTION OF SHOWERS WEST AND
THUNDER CENTRAL AND WEST. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE CENTRAL WITH NO LIGHTNING CG STRIKES
INDICATED YET. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON THE WANE...WILL REMOVE
THUNDER CENTRAL AND GO WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE NO CHANGES EXCEPT TO UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS. WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA. HAVE HAD MANY
REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL UP TO PEA SIZE WITH THESE SHOWERS...AND HAVE
MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION WITH LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION IN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN OF FADING WITH THE
APPROACH OF SUNSET. REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF US.
HOWEVER...NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CURVED JET
AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS COULD SPARK SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. QUIET AND COOL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MVFR/VFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND SCATTER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNSET. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...A DRY AND
WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3
WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH. TO THE EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3 ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS NEAR 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED...WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GREEN UP OF
VEGETATION...RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ MONDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-
050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 192202
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
502 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 502 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

QUICK UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON TO REMOVE MENTION OF SHOWERS WEST AND
THUNDER CENTRAL AND WEST. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE CENTRAL WITH NO LIGHTNING CG STRIKES
INDICATED YET. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON THE WANE...WILL REMOVE
THUNDER CENTRAL AND GO WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE NO CHANGES EXCEPT TO UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS. WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA. HAVE HAD MANY
REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL UP TO PEA SIZE WITH THESE SHOWERS...AND HAVE
MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION WITH LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION IN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN OF FADING WITH THE
APPROACH OF SUNSET. REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF US.
HOWEVER...NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CURVED JET
AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS COULD SPARK SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. QUIET AND COOL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MVFR/VFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND SCATTER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNSET. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...A DRY AND
WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3
WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH. TO THE EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3 ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS NEAR 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED...WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GREEN UP OF
VEGETATION...RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ MONDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-
050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 192005
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA. HAVE HAD MANY
REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL UP TO PEA SIZE WITH THESE SHOWERS...AND HAVE
MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION WITH LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION IN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN OF FADING WITH THE
APPROACH OF SUNSET. REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF US.
HOWEVER...NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CURVED JET
AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS COULD SPARK SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. QUIET AND COOL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MVFR/VFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND SCATTER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNSET. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...A DRY AND
WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3
WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH. TO THE EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3 ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS NEAR 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED...WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GREEN UP OF
VEGETATION...RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ MONDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-
050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...AYD









000
FXUS63 KBIS 192005
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA. HAVE HAD MANY
REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL UP TO PEA SIZE WITH THESE SHOWERS...AND HAVE
MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION WITH LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION IN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN OF FADING WITH THE
APPROACH OF SUNSET. REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF US.
HOWEVER...NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CURVED JET
AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS COULD SPARK SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. QUIET AND COOL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MVFR/VFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND SCATTER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNSET. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...A DRY AND
WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3
WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH. TO THE EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3 ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS NEAR 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED...WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GREEN UP OF
VEGETATION...RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ MONDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-
050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 192005
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA. HAVE HAD MANY
REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL UP TO PEA SIZE WITH THESE SHOWERS...AND HAVE
MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION WITH LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION IN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN OF FADING WITH THE
APPROACH OF SUNSET. REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF US.
HOWEVER...NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CURVED JET
AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS COULD SPARK SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. QUIET AND COOL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MVFR/VFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND SCATTER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNSET. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...A DRY AND
WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3
WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH. TO THE EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3 ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS NEAR 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED...WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GREEN UP OF
VEGETATION...RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ MONDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-
050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 192005
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA. HAVE HAD MANY
REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL UP TO PEA SIZE WITH THESE SHOWERS...AND HAVE
MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION WITH LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION IN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN OF FADING WITH THE
APPROACH OF SUNSET. REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF US.
HOWEVER...NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CURVED JET
AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS COULD SPARK SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. QUIET AND COOL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MVFR/VFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND SCATTER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNSET. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...A DRY AND
WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3
WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH. TO THE EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3 ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS NEAR 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED...WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GREEN UP OF
VEGETATION...RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ MONDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-
050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...AYD









000
FXUS63 KFGF 191950
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
250 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

500MB TROUGH WILL SWING NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE BAUDETTE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO CANADA AS A RESULT...AND THE INSTABILITY
SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER COLD POOL SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NOT SURE ABOUT CLOUD
COVER...BUT MIXING SHOULD CONTINUE SINCE THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL NOT WEAKEN. MIN TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST
WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE. THIS WILL LEAD
TO PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. MODEL
925MB-850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW IN THIS
AREA...ALTHOUGH RAIN SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DURING PEAK HEATING
WHEN THE LOWEST LAYER GETS INTO THE MID-30S. AT ANY
RATE...SNOWFALL RATES APPEAR LIGHT...AND SOME MELTING SHOULD
OCCUR ON WARM GROUND SURFACES. MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING MAY
GET AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. TO THE
WEST...COLD POOL ALOFT LIKELY WILL LEAD TO ISOLD-SCATTERED
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS.

WIND POTENTIAL...WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON MONDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
(ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY). MIXING POTENTIAL OF WINDS ALOFT
TO THE SFC IS UNCERTAIN SO NOT SURE HOW LONG ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
WINDS WOULD LAST. STILL SOME TIME TO MONITOR AND ASSESS BEFORE
NEEDING TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY.

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS STRONG ENOUGH FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA. FIRE WEATHER WATCH
SEEMS APPROPRIATE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (SEE
FIRE WX SECTION).

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WILL
EXIT. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON TUESDAY
(STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE DEGREE OF TEMP
RECOVERY AS THE 500MB LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST. THE GFS AND GEM
KEEP A FLATTER WEST-NW FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS RIDGING
DEVELOPING MUCH QUICKER. THEREFORE THERMAL FIELDS ARE QUITE A BIT
DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS...WHICH RESULTS IN A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOW WARMING TREND
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH IS FINE FOR NOW. KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY UNTIL SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. SHOULD LOSE SOME OF THE GUSTINESS DURING THE EVENING BUT
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL STAY UP. THEN EXPECT THE SAME GUSTY WINDS AGAIN
DURING THE DAY MON. CEILINGS ARE A LITTLE TOUGHER CALL. MAY SEE
SOME RISE INTO THE LOW END OF VFR CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEN
MODELS SUGGEST THEY MAY LOWER BACK INTO AT LEAST MVFR CRITERIA AGAIN
TONIGHT. AREA OF STEADIER RAIN OVER THE KGFK AREA SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE
EAST AND AFFECT KTVF/KBJI DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON. THERE IS OTHER
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL ND THAT MAY SLIDE INTO
EASTERN ND LATER THIS AFTERNOON TOO. THIS SHOWERY PCPN SHOULD DIE
OFF THIS EVENING AND START UP AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. WILL NOT
INSERT ANY LATE MON MORNING SHOWERS INTO THE TAFS...AS THEY SHOULD
GET MORE NUMEROUS AROUND 18Z OR LATER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH
COOLER AIR FILTERING IN AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER MOST OF
THE AREA. WITH RECENT RAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF RESPITE IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE...WITH WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MILES PER HOUR. NOT EXPECTING AN INVERSION TO SET UP AT
THIS TIME...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL OVERNIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE SYSTEM. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED IN MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S. COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING
AND THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA DURING THAT PERIOD. IF MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL
ANOTHER 5 TO 10 PERCENT IN THE ZONES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...CONDITIONS WOULD MEET CRITICAL CRITERIA. THUS...A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...FROM TOWNER COUNTY SOUTH TO
SARGENT COUNTY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AND A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR NDZ006-014-024-028-038-049-052.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...GODON
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS





000
FXUS63 KFGF 191950
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
250 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

500MB TROUGH WILL SWING NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE BAUDETTE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO CANADA AS A RESULT...AND THE INSTABILITY
SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER COLD POOL SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NOT SURE ABOUT CLOUD
COVER...BUT MIXING SHOULD CONTINUE SINCE THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL NOT WEAKEN. MIN TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST
WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE. THIS WILL LEAD
TO PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. MODEL
925MB-850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW IN THIS
AREA...ALTHOUGH RAIN SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DURING PEAK HEATING
WHEN THE LOWEST LAYER GETS INTO THE MID-30S. AT ANY
RATE...SNOWFALL RATES APPEAR LIGHT...AND SOME MELTING SHOULD
OCCUR ON WARM GROUND SURFACES. MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING MAY
GET AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. TO THE
WEST...COLD POOL ALOFT LIKELY WILL LEAD TO ISOLD-SCATTERED
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS.

WIND POTENTIAL...WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON MONDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
(ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY). MIXING POTENTIAL OF WINDS ALOFT
TO THE SFC IS UNCERTAIN SO NOT SURE HOW LONG ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
WINDS WOULD LAST. STILL SOME TIME TO MONITOR AND ASSESS BEFORE
NEEDING TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY.

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS STRONG ENOUGH FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA. FIRE WEATHER WATCH
SEEMS APPROPRIATE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (SEE
FIRE WX SECTION).

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WILL
EXIT. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON TUESDAY
(STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE DEGREE OF TEMP
RECOVERY AS THE 500MB LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST. THE GFS AND GEM
KEEP A FLATTER WEST-NW FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS RIDGING
DEVELOPING MUCH QUICKER. THEREFORE THERMAL FIELDS ARE QUITE A BIT
DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS...WHICH RESULTS IN A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOW WARMING TREND
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH IS FINE FOR NOW. KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY UNTIL SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. SHOULD LOSE SOME OF THE GUSTINESS DURING THE EVENING BUT
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL STAY UP. THEN EXPECT THE SAME GUSTY WINDS AGAIN
DURING THE DAY MON. CEILINGS ARE A LITTLE TOUGHER CALL. MAY SEE
SOME RISE INTO THE LOW END OF VFR CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEN
MODELS SUGGEST THEY MAY LOWER BACK INTO AT LEAST MVFR CRITERIA AGAIN
TONIGHT. AREA OF STEADIER RAIN OVER THE KGFK AREA SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE
EAST AND AFFECT KTVF/KBJI DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON. THERE IS OTHER
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL ND THAT MAY SLIDE INTO
EASTERN ND LATER THIS AFTERNOON TOO. THIS SHOWERY PCPN SHOULD DIE
OFF THIS EVENING AND START UP AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. WILL NOT
INSERT ANY LATE MON MORNING SHOWERS INTO THE TAFS...AS THEY SHOULD
GET MORE NUMEROUS AROUND 18Z OR LATER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH
COOLER AIR FILTERING IN AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER MOST OF
THE AREA. WITH RECENT RAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF RESPITE IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE...WITH WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MILES PER HOUR. NOT EXPECTING AN INVERSION TO SET UP AT
THIS TIME...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL OVERNIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE SYSTEM. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED IN MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S. COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING
AND THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA DURING THAT PERIOD. IF MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL
ANOTHER 5 TO 10 PERCENT IN THE ZONES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...CONDITIONS WOULD MEET CRITICAL CRITERIA. THUS...A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...FROM TOWNER COUNTY SOUTH TO
SARGENT COUNTY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AND A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR NDZ006-014-024-028-038-049-052.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...GODON
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 191740
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1240 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

PREVIOUS UPDATES ARE ON TRACK SO ONLY MINIMAL UPDATES ARE NEEDED
FOR TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES BASE OF 500MB TROUGH
BEGINNING TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD PROPAGATE THE
FORCING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND CURRENT
POPS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TIMING. COLD POOL ALOFT SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EXPECTED INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS COLD POOL ALOFT SHIFTS EAST. BISMARCK RECEIVED VERY
SMALL HAIL WITH ONE WEAK SHOWER...SO THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE VERY LOW FREEZING LEVELS (ALTHOUGH THUNDER NOT EXPECTED).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THE NORTHERN UPPER WAVE IS A TAD
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...AND WILL RAISE POPS ACROSS THIS CURRENT
RAIN AREA...AND SLOW DOWN THEIR EXIT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE MAIN ENERGY OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL SWING TO THE NE
TODAY...INDUCING 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS. THIS
FORCING WILL PROPAGATE NE TODAY...AND ANTICIPATE THE CURRENT AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE
ABOVE THINKING...AND CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE...AREAS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY SHOULD RECEIVE 0.20-0.40 INCHES OF RAINFALL (12Z-
00Z). ISOLD-SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLE
MOST AREAS WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING INTO THE REGION. IT IS ALSO
GOING TO GET WINDY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...BUT WITH SPEEDS
JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OPEN TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY,
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OF LS, AND EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE US BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP ON EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER JET WILL DIVE SOUTH ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH ON MON. THE JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OR FARTHER WEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES NOW AND WILL SHIFT
EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ND. LOW LEVEL JET WAS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY.
PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER MN SHOULD ALSO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER SD WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND RESTRICT
AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER WEST,
INGREDIENTS NOT COMING TOGETHER FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. WILL TRIM
BACK QPF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...A QUIET PERIOD WEATHERWISE WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW QUICKLY 500MB RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WITH IT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP. THUS HAVE SOME LIGHT POPS IN FOR
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE FORTIES WILL MODERATE TO LOW
FIFTIES BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. SHOULD LOSE SOME OF THE GUSTINESS DURING THE EVENING BUT
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL STAY UP. THEN EXPECT THE SAME GUSTY WINDS AGAIN
DURING THE DAY MON. CEILINGS ARE A LITTLE TOUGHER CALL. MAY SEE
SOME RISE INTO THE LOW END OF VFR CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEN
MODELS SUGGEST THEY MAY LOWER BACK INTO AT LEAST MVFR CRITERIA AGAIN
TONIGHT. AREA OF STEADIER RAIN OVER THE KGFK AREA SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE
EAST AND AFFECT KTVF/KBJI DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON. THERE IS OTHER
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL ND THAT MAY SLIDE INTO
EASTERN ND LATER THIS AFTERNOON TOO. THIS SHOWERY PCPN SHOULD DIE
OFF THIS EVENING AND START UP AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. WILL NOT
INSERT ANY LATE MON MORNING SHOWERS INTO THE TAFS...AS THEY SHOULD
GET MORE NUMEROUS AROUND 18Z OR LATER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 191740
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1240 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

PREVIOUS UPDATES ARE ON TRACK SO ONLY MINIMAL UPDATES ARE NEEDED
FOR TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES BASE OF 500MB TROUGH
BEGINNING TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD PROPAGATE THE
FORCING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND CURRENT
POPS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TIMING. COLD POOL ALOFT SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EXPECTED INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS COLD POOL ALOFT SHIFTS EAST. BISMARCK RECEIVED VERY
SMALL HAIL WITH ONE WEAK SHOWER...SO THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE VERY LOW FREEZING LEVELS (ALTHOUGH THUNDER NOT EXPECTED).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THE NORTHERN UPPER WAVE IS A TAD
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...AND WILL RAISE POPS ACROSS THIS CURRENT
RAIN AREA...AND SLOW DOWN THEIR EXIT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE MAIN ENERGY OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL SWING TO THE NE
TODAY...INDUCING 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS. THIS
FORCING WILL PROPAGATE NE TODAY...AND ANTICIPATE THE CURRENT AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE
ABOVE THINKING...AND CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE...AREAS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY SHOULD RECEIVE 0.20-0.40 INCHES OF RAINFALL (12Z-
00Z). ISOLD-SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLE
MOST AREAS WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING INTO THE REGION. IT IS ALSO
GOING TO GET WINDY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...BUT WITH SPEEDS
JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OPEN TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY,
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OF LS, AND EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE US BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP ON EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER JET WILL DIVE SOUTH ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH ON MON. THE JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OR FARTHER WEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES NOW AND WILL SHIFT
EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ND. LOW LEVEL JET WAS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY.
PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER MN SHOULD ALSO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER SD WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND RESTRICT
AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER WEST,
INGREDIENTS NOT COMING TOGETHER FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. WILL TRIM
BACK QPF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...A QUIET PERIOD WEATHERWISE WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW QUICKLY 500MB RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WITH IT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP. THUS HAVE SOME LIGHT POPS IN FOR
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE FORTIES WILL MODERATE TO LOW
FIFTIES BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. SHOULD LOSE SOME OF THE GUSTINESS DURING THE EVENING BUT
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL STAY UP. THEN EXPECT THE SAME GUSTY WINDS AGAIN
DURING THE DAY MON. CEILINGS ARE A LITTLE TOUGHER CALL. MAY SEE
SOME RISE INTO THE LOW END OF VFR CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEN
MODELS SUGGEST THEY MAY LOWER BACK INTO AT LEAST MVFR CRITERIA AGAIN
TONIGHT. AREA OF STEADIER RAIN OVER THE KGFK AREA SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE
EAST AND AFFECT KTVF/KBJI DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON. THERE IS OTHER
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL ND THAT MAY SLIDE INTO
EASTERN ND LATER THIS AFTERNOON TOO. THIS SHOWERY PCPN SHOULD DIE
OFF THIS EVENING AND START UP AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. WILL NOT
INSERT ANY LATE MON MORNING SHOWERS INTO THE TAFS...AS THEY SHOULD
GET MORE NUMEROUS AROUND 18Z OR LATER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 191740
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1240 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

PREVIOUS UPDATES ARE ON TRACK SO ONLY MINIMAL UPDATES ARE NEEDED
FOR TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES BASE OF 500MB TROUGH
BEGINNING TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD PROPAGATE THE
FORCING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND CURRENT
POPS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TIMING. COLD POOL ALOFT SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EXPECTED INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS COLD POOL ALOFT SHIFTS EAST. BISMARCK RECEIVED VERY
SMALL HAIL WITH ONE WEAK SHOWER...SO THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE VERY LOW FREEZING LEVELS (ALTHOUGH THUNDER NOT EXPECTED).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THE NORTHERN UPPER WAVE IS A TAD
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...AND WILL RAISE POPS ACROSS THIS CURRENT
RAIN AREA...AND SLOW DOWN THEIR EXIT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE MAIN ENERGY OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL SWING TO THE NE
TODAY...INDUCING 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS. THIS
FORCING WILL PROPAGATE NE TODAY...AND ANTICIPATE THE CURRENT AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE
ABOVE THINKING...AND CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE...AREAS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY SHOULD RECEIVE 0.20-0.40 INCHES OF RAINFALL (12Z-
00Z). ISOLD-SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLE
MOST AREAS WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING INTO THE REGION. IT IS ALSO
GOING TO GET WINDY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...BUT WITH SPEEDS
JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OPEN TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY,
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OF LS, AND EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE US BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP ON EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER JET WILL DIVE SOUTH ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH ON MON. THE JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OR FARTHER WEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES NOW AND WILL SHIFT
EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ND. LOW LEVEL JET WAS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY.
PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER MN SHOULD ALSO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER SD WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND RESTRICT
AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER WEST,
INGREDIENTS NOT COMING TOGETHER FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. WILL TRIM
BACK QPF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...A QUIET PERIOD WEATHERWISE WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW QUICKLY 500MB RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WITH IT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP. THUS HAVE SOME LIGHT POPS IN FOR
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE FORTIES WILL MODERATE TO LOW
FIFTIES BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. SHOULD LOSE SOME OF THE GUSTINESS DURING THE EVENING BUT
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL STAY UP. THEN EXPECT THE SAME GUSTY WINDS AGAIN
DURING THE DAY MON. CEILINGS ARE A LITTLE TOUGHER CALL. MAY SEE
SOME RISE INTO THE LOW END OF VFR CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEN
MODELS SUGGEST THEY MAY LOWER BACK INTO AT LEAST MVFR CRITERIA AGAIN
TONIGHT. AREA OF STEADIER RAIN OVER THE KGFK AREA SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE
EAST AND AFFECT KTVF/KBJI DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON. THERE IS OTHER
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL ND THAT MAY SLIDE INTO
EASTERN ND LATER THIS AFTERNOON TOO. THIS SHOWERY PCPN SHOULD DIE
OFF THIS EVENING AND START UP AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. WILL NOT
INSERT ANY LATE MON MORNING SHOWERS INTO THE TAFS...AS THEY SHOULD
GET MORE NUMEROUS AROUND 18Z OR LATER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 191740
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1240 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

PREVIOUS UPDATES ARE ON TRACK SO ONLY MINIMAL UPDATES ARE NEEDED
FOR TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES BASE OF 500MB TROUGH
BEGINNING TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD PROPAGATE THE
FORCING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND CURRENT
POPS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TIMING. COLD POOL ALOFT SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EXPECTED INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS COLD POOL ALOFT SHIFTS EAST. BISMARCK RECEIVED VERY
SMALL HAIL WITH ONE WEAK SHOWER...SO THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE VERY LOW FREEZING LEVELS (ALTHOUGH THUNDER NOT EXPECTED).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THE NORTHERN UPPER WAVE IS A TAD
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...AND WILL RAISE POPS ACROSS THIS CURRENT
RAIN AREA...AND SLOW DOWN THEIR EXIT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE MAIN ENERGY OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL SWING TO THE NE
TODAY...INDUCING 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS. THIS
FORCING WILL PROPAGATE NE TODAY...AND ANTICIPATE THE CURRENT AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE
ABOVE THINKING...AND CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE...AREAS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY SHOULD RECEIVE 0.20-0.40 INCHES OF RAINFALL (12Z-
00Z). ISOLD-SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLE
MOST AREAS WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING INTO THE REGION. IT IS ALSO
GOING TO GET WINDY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...BUT WITH SPEEDS
JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OPEN TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY,
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OF LS, AND EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE US BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP ON EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER JET WILL DIVE SOUTH ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH ON MON. THE JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OR FARTHER WEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES NOW AND WILL SHIFT
EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ND. LOW LEVEL JET WAS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY.
PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER MN SHOULD ALSO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER SD WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND RESTRICT
AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER WEST,
INGREDIENTS NOT COMING TOGETHER FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. WILL TRIM
BACK QPF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...A QUIET PERIOD WEATHERWISE WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW QUICKLY 500MB RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WITH IT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP. THUS HAVE SOME LIGHT POPS IN FOR
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE FORTIES WILL MODERATE TO LOW
FIFTIES BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. SHOULD LOSE SOME OF THE GUSTINESS DURING THE EVENING BUT
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL STAY UP. THEN EXPECT THE SAME GUSTY WINDS AGAIN
DURING THE DAY MON. CEILINGS ARE A LITTLE TOUGHER CALL. MAY SEE
SOME RISE INTO THE LOW END OF VFR CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEN
MODELS SUGGEST THEY MAY LOWER BACK INTO AT LEAST MVFR CRITERIA AGAIN
TONIGHT. AREA OF STEADIER RAIN OVER THE KGFK AREA SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE
EAST AND AFFECT KTVF/KBJI DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON. THERE IS OTHER
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL ND THAT MAY SLIDE INTO
EASTERN ND LATER THIS AFTERNOON TOO. THIS SHOWERY PCPN SHOULD DIE
OFF THIS EVENING AND START UP AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. WILL NOT
INSERT ANY LATE MON MORNING SHOWERS INTO THE TAFS...AS THEY SHOULD
GET MORE NUMEROUS AROUND 18Z OR LATER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 191740
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1240 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

PREVIOUS UPDATES ARE ON TRACK SO ONLY MINIMAL UPDATES ARE NEEDED
FOR TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES BASE OF 500MB TROUGH
BEGINNING TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD PROPAGATE THE
FORCING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND CURRENT
POPS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TIMING. COLD POOL ALOFT SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EXPECTED INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS COLD POOL ALOFT SHIFTS EAST. BISMARCK RECEIVED VERY
SMALL HAIL WITH ONE WEAK SHOWER...SO THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE VERY LOW FREEZING LEVELS (ALTHOUGH THUNDER NOT EXPECTED).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THE NORTHERN UPPER WAVE IS A TAD
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...AND WILL RAISE POPS ACROSS THIS CURRENT
RAIN AREA...AND SLOW DOWN THEIR EXIT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE MAIN ENERGY OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL SWING TO THE NE
TODAY...INDUCING 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS. THIS
FORCING WILL PROPAGATE NE TODAY...AND ANTICIPATE THE CURRENT AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE
ABOVE THINKING...AND CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE...AREAS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY SHOULD RECEIVE 0.20-0.40 INCHES OF RAINFALL (12Z-
00Z). ISOLD-SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLE
MOST AREAS WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING INTO THE REGION. IT IS ALSO
GOING TO GET WINDY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...BUT WITH SPEEDS
JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OPEN TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY,
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OF LS, AND EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE US BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP ON EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER JET WILL DIVE SOUTH ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH ON MON. THE JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OR FARTHER WEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES NOW AND WILL SHIFT
EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ND. LOW LEVEL JET WAS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY.
PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER MN SHOULD ALSO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER SD WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND RESTRICT
AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER WEST,
INGREDIENTS NOT COMING TOGETHER FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. WILL TRIM
BACK QPF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...A QUIET PERIOD WEATHERWISE WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW QUICKLY 500MB RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WITH IT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP. THUS HAVE SOME LIGHT POPS IN FOR
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE FORTIES WILL MODERATE TO LOW
FIFTIES BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. SHOULD LOSE SOME OF THE GUSTINESS DURING THE EVENING BUT
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL STAY UP. THEN EXPECT THE SAME GUSTY WINDS AGAIN
DURING THE DAY MON. CEILINGS ARE A LITTLE TOUGHER CALL. MAY SEE
SOME RISE INTO THE LOW END OF VFR CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEN
MODELS SUGGEST THEY MAY LOWER BACK INTO AT LEAST MVFR CRITERIA AGAIN
TONIGHT. AREA OF STEADIER RAIN OVER THE KGFK AREA SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE
EAST AND AFFECT KTVF/KBJI DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON. THERE IS OTHER
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL ND THAT MAY SLIDE INTO
EASTERN ND LATER THIS AFTERNOON TOO. THIS SHOWERY PCPN SHOULD DIE
OFF THIS EVENING AND START UP AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. WILL NOT
INSERT ANY LATE MON MORNING SHOWERS INTO THE TAFS...AS THEY SHOULD
GET MORE NUMEROUS AROUND 18Z OR LATER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 191740
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1240 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

PREVIOUS UPDATES ARE ON TRACK SO ONLY MINIMAL UPDATES ARE NEEDED
FOR TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES BASE OF 500MB TROUGH
BEGINNING TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD PROPAGATE THE
FORCING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND CURRENT
POPS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TIMING. COLD POOL ALOFT SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EXPECTED INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS COLD POOL ALOFT SHIFTS EAST. BISMARCK RECEIVED VERY
SMALL HAIL WITH ONE WEAK SHOWER...SO THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE VERY LOW FREEZING LEVELS (ALTHOUGH THUNDER NOT EXPECTED).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THE NORTHERN UPPER WAVE IS A TAD
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...AND WILL RAISE POPS ACROSS THIS CURRENT
RAIN AREA...AND SLOW DOWN THEIR EXIT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE MAIN ENERGY OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL SWING TO THE NE
TODAY...INDUCING 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS. THIS
FORCING WILL PROPAGATE NE TODAY...AND ANTICIPATE THE CURRENT AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE
ABOVE THINKING...AND CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE...AREAS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY SHOULD RECEIVE 0.20-0.40 INCHES OF RAINFALL (12Z-
00Z). ISOLD-SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLE
MOST AREAS WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING INTO THE REGION. IT IS ALSO
GOING TO GET WINDY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...BUT WITH SPEEDS
JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OPEN TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY,
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OF LS, AND EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE US BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP ON EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER JET WILL DIVE SOUTH ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH ON MON. THE JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OR FARTHER WEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES NOW AND WILL SHIFT
EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ND. LOW LEVEL JET WAS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY.
PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER MN SHOULD ALSO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER SD WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND RESTRICT
AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER WEST,
INGREDIENTS NOT COMING TOGETHER FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. WILL TRIM
BACK QPF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...A QUIET PERIOD WEATHERWISE WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW QUICKLY 500MB RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WITH IT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP. THUS HAVE SOME LIGHT POPS IN FOR
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE FORTIES WILL MODERATE TO LOW
FIFTIES BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. SHOULD LOSE SOME OF THE GUSTINESS DURING THE EVENING BUT
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL STAY UP. THEN EXPECT THE SAME GUSTY WINDS AGAIN
DURING THE DAY MON. CEILINGS ARE A LITTLE TOUGHER CALL. MAY SEE
SOME RISE INTO THE LOW END OF VFR CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEN
MODELS SUGGEST THEY MAY LOWER BACK INTO AT LEAST MVFR CRITERIA AGAIN
TONIGHT. AREA OF STEADIER RAIN OVER THE KGFK AREA SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE
EAST AND AFFECT KTVF/KBJI DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON. THERE IS OTHER
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL ND THAT MAY SLIDE INTO
EASTERN ND LATER THIS AFTERNOON TOO. THIS SHOWERY PCPN SHOULD DIE
OFF THIS EVENING AND START UP AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. WILL NOT
INSERT ANY LATE MON MORNING SHOWERS INTO THE TAFS...AS THEY SHOULD
GET MORE NUMEROUS AROUND 18Z OR LATER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 191740
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1240 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

PREVIOUS UPDATES ARE ON TRACK SO ONLY MINIMAL UPDATES ARE NEEDED
FOR TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES BASE OF 500MB TROUGH
BEGINNING TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD PROPAGATE THE
FORCING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND CURRENT
POPS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TIMING. COLD POOL ALOFT SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EXPECTED INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS COLD POOL ALOFT SHIFTS EAST. BISMARCK RECEIVED VERY
SMALL HAIL WITH ONE WEAK SHOWER...SO THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE VERY LOW FREEZING LEVELS (ALTHOUGH THUNDER NOT EXPECTED).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THE NORTHERN UPPER WAVE IS A TAD
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...AND WILL RAISE POPS ACROSS THIS CURRENT
RAIN AREA...AND SLOW DOWN THEIR EXIT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE MAIN ENERGY OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL SWING TO THE NE
TODAY...INDUCING 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS. THIS
FORCING WILL PROPAGATE NE TODAY...AND ANTICIPATE THE CURRENT AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE
ABOVE THINKING...AND CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE...AREAS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY SHOULD RECEIVE 0.20-0.40 INCHES OF RAINFALL (12Z-
00Z). ISOLD-SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLE
MOST AREAS WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING INTO THE REGION. IT IS ALSO
GOING TO GET WINDY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...BUT WITH SPEEDS
JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OPEN TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY,
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OF LS, AND EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE US BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP ON EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER JET WILL DIVE SOUTH ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH ON MON. THE JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OR FARTHER WEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES NOW AND WILL SHIFT
EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ND. LOW LEVEL JET WAS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY.
PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER MN SHOULD ALSO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER SD WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND RESTRICT
AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER WEST,
INGREDIENTS NOT COMING TOGETHER FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. WILL TRIM
BACK QPF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...A QUIET PERIOD WEATHERWISE WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW QUICKLY 500MB RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WITH IT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP. THUS HAVE SOME LIGHT POPS IN FOR
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE FORTIES WILL MODERATE TO LOW
FIFTIES BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. SHOULD LOSE SOME OF THE GUSTINESS DURING THE EVENING BUT
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL STAY UP. THEN EXPECT THE SAME GUSTY WINDS AGAIN
DURING THE DAY MON. CEILINGS ARE A LITTLE TOUGHER CALL. MAY SEE
SOME RISE INTO THE LOW END OF VFR CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEN
MODELS SUGGEST THEY MAY LOWER BACK INTO AT LEAST MVFR CRITERIA AGAIN
TONIGHT. AREA OF STEADIER RAIN OVER THE KGFK AREA SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE
EAST AND AFFECT KTVF/KBJI DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON. THERE IS OTHER
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL ND THAT MAY SLIDE INTO
EASTERN ND LATER THIS AFTERNOON TOO. THIS SHOWERY PCPN SHOULD DIE
OFF THIS EVENING AND START UP AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. WILL NOT
INSERT ANY LATE MON MORNING SHOWERS INTO THE TAFS...AS THEY SHOULD
GET MORE NUMEROUS AROUND 18Z OR LATER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 191740
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1240 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

PREVIOUS UPDATES ARE ON TRACK SO ONLY MINIMAL UPDATES ARE NEEDED
FOR TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES BASE OF 500MB TROUGH
BEGINNING TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD PROPAGATE THE
FORCING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND CURRENT
POPS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TIMING. COLD POOL ALOFT SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EXPECTED INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS COLD POOL ALOFT SHIFTS EAST. BISMARCK RECEIVED VERY
SMALL HAIL WITH ONE WEAK SHOWER...SO THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE VERY LOW FREEZING LEVELS (ALTHOUGH THUNDER NOT EXPECTED).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THE NORTHERN UPPER WAVE IS A TAD
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...AND WILL RAISE POPS ACROSS THIS CURRENT
RAIN AREA...AND SLOW DOWN THEIR EXIT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE MAIN ENERGY OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL SWING TO THE NE
TODAY...INDUCING 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS. THIS
FORCING WILL PROPAGATE NE TODAY...AND ANTICIPATE THE CURRENT AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE
ABOVE THINKING...AND CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE...AREAS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY SHOULD RECEIVE 0.20-0.40 INCHES OF RAINFALL (12Z-
00Z). ISOLD-SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLE
MOST AREAS WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING INTO THE REGION. IT IS ALSO
GOING TO GET WINDY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...BUT WITH SPEEDS
JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OPEN TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY,
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OF LS, AND EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE US BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP ON EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER JET WILL DIVE SOUTH ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH ON MON. THE JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OR FARTHER WEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES NOW AND WILL SHIFT
EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ND. LOW LEVEL JET WAS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY.
PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER MN SHOULD ALSO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER SD WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND RESTRICT
AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER WEST,
INGREDIENTS NOT COMING TOGETHER FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. WILL TRIM
BACK QPF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...A QUIET PERIOD WEATHERWISE WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW QUICKLY 500MB RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WITH IT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP. THUS HAVE SOME LIGHT POPS IN FOR
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE FORTIES WILL MODERATE TO LOW
FIFTIES BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. SHOULD LOSE SOME OF THE GUSTINESS DURING THE EVENING BUT
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL STAY UP. THEN EXPECT THE SAME GUSTY WINDS AGAIN
DURING THE DAY MON. CEILINGS ARE A LITTLE TOUGHER CALL. MAY SEE
SOME RISE INTO THE LOW END OF VFR CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEN
MODELS SUGGEST THEY MAY LOWER BACK INTO AT LEAST MVFR CRITERIA AGAIN
TONIGHT. AREA OF STEADIER RAIN OVER THE KGFK AREA SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE
EAST AND AFFECT KTVF/KBJI DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON. THERE IS OTHER
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL ND THAT MAY SLIDE INTO
EASTERN ND LATER THIS AFTERNOON TOO. THIS SHOWERY PCPN SHOULD DIE
OFF THIS EVENING AND START UP AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. WILL NOT
INSERT ANY LATE MON MORNING SHOWERS INTO THE TAFS...AS THEY SHOULD
GET MORE NUMEROUS AROUND 18Z OR LATER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KBIS 191703
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1203 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SMALL HAIL BEING REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY IS ON TRACK WITH THE
STRATUS FIELD OVERTAKING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY SCATTER WITH DIURNAL HEATING WITH RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE 12-13
UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

INITIAL BATCH OF WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST...THOUGH SECONDARY ROUND OF SCATTERED WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ARE
STARTING TO DEVELOP AND WORK INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER
MAINLY OVER THE WEST AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN BEHIND THE
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY...HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PROLONGING CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE THROUGH
THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AND
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE DEEPENING TROUGH. THE
CURRENT 00Z MODEL SUITE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING AND SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...PUSHING OVER
MINNESOTA/EASTERN MANITOBA AND CLOSING OFF BY 12Z MONDAY. NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS COLD AIR
FILTERING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO JUST BELOW FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LOW WILL WORK ALONG THE MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BORDER ON MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE
DAY...THOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM. A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT WILL KEEP POPS LOW
WITH LACK OF MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER OUR AREA. MODELS START TO DISAGREE WITH THE POSITION OF THE
RIDGE AND WHETHER A FEW UPPER WAVES WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MVFR/VFR STRATUS THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT AND
SCATTER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE ALSO
INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ARE
ALSO FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 191703
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1203 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SMALL HAIL BEING REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY IS ON TRACK WITH THE
STRATUS FIELD OVERTAKING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY SCATTER WITH DIURNAL HEATING WITH RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE 12-13
UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

INITIAL BATCH OF WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST...THOUGH SECONDARY ROUND OF SCATTERED WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ARE
STARTING TO DEVELOP AND WORK INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER
MAINLY OVER THE WEST AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN BEHIND THE
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY...HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PROLONGING CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE THROUGH
THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AND
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE DEEPENING TROUGH. THE
CURRENT 00Z MODEL SUITE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING AND SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...PUSHING OVER
MINNESOTA/EASTERN MANITOBA AND CLOSING OFF BY 12Z MONDAY. NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS COLD AIR
FILTERING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO JUST BELOW FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LOW WILL WORK ALONG THE MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BORDER ON MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE
DAY...THOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM. A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT WILL KEEP POPS LOW
WITH LACK OF MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER OUR AREA. MODELS START TO DISAGREE WITH THE POSITION OF THE
RIDGE AND WHETHER A FEW UPPER WAVES WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MVFR/VFR STRATUS THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT AND
SCATTER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE ALSO
INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ARE
ALSO FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 191703
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1203 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SMALL HAIL BEING REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY IS ON TRACK WITH THE
STRATUS FIELD OVERTAKING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY SCATTER WITH DIURNAL HEATING WITH RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE 12-13
UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

INITIAL BATCH OF WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST...THOUGH SECONDARY ROUND OF SCATTERED WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ARE
STARTING TO DEVELOP AND WORK INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER
MAINLY OVER THE WEST AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN BEHIND THE
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY...HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PROLONGING CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE THROUGH
THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AND
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE DEEPENING TROUGH. THE
CURRENT 00Z MODEL SUITE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING AND SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...PUSHING OVER
MINNESOTA/EASTERN MANITOBA AND CLOSING OFF BY 12Z MONDAY. NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS COLD AIR
FILTERING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO JUST BELOW FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LOW WILL WORK ALONG THE MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BORDER ON MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE
DAY...THOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM. A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT WILL KEEP POPS LOW
WITH LACK OF MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER OUR AREA. MODELS START TO DISAGREE WITH THE POSITION OF THE
RIDGE AND WHETHER A FEW UPPER WAVES WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MVFR/VFR STRATUS THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT AND
SCATTER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE ALSO
INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ARE
ALSO FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 191703
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1203 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SMALL HAIL BEING REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY IS ON TRACK WITH THE
STRATUS FIELD OVERTAKING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY SCATTER WITH DIURNAL HEATING WITH RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE 12-13
UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

INITIAL BATCH OF WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST...THOUGH SECONDARY ROUND OF SCATTERED WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ARE
STARTING TO DEVELOP AND WORK INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER
MAINLY OVER THE WEST AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN BEHIND THE
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY...HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PROLONGING CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE THROUGH
THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AND
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE DEEPENING TROUGH. THE
CURRENT 00Z MODEL SUITE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING AND SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...PUSHING OVER
MINNESOTA/EASTERN MANITOBA AND CLOSING OFF BY 12Z MONDAY. NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS COLD AIR
FILTERING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO JUST BELOW FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LOW WILL WORK ALONG THE MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BORDER ON MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE
DAY...THOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM. A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT WILL KEEP POPS LOW
WITH LACK OF MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER OUR AREA. MODELS START TO DISAGREE WITH THE POSITION OF THE
RIDGE AND WHETHER A FEW UPPER WAVES WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MVFR/VFR STRATUS THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT AND
SCATTER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE ALSO
INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ARE
ALSO FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KFGF 191447
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THE NORTHERN UPPER WAVE IS A TAD
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...AND WILL RAISE POPS ACROSS THIS CURRENT
RAIN AREA...AND SLOW DOWN THEIR EXIT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE MAIN ENERGY OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL SWING TO THE NE
TODAY...INDUCING 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS. THIS
FORCING WILL PROPAGATE NE TODAY...AND ANTICIPATE THE CURRENT AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE
ABOVE THINKING...AND CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE...AREAS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY SHOULD RECEIVE 0.20-0.40 INCHES OF RAINFALL (12Z-
00Z). ISOLD-SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLE
MOST AREAS WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING INTO THE REGION. IT IS ALSO
GOING TO GET WINDY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...BUT WITH SPEEDS
JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OPEN TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY,
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OF LS, AND EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE US BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP ON EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER JET WILL DIVE SOUTH ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH ON MON. THE JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OR FARTHER WEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES NOW AND WILL SHIFT
EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ND. LOW LEVEL JET WAS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY.
PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER MN SHOULD ALSO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER SD WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND RESTRICT
AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER WEST,
INGREDIENTS NOT COMING TOGETHER FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. WILL TRIM
BACK QPF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...A QUIET PERIOD WEATHERWISE WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW QUICKLY 500MB RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WITH IT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP. THUS HAVE SOME LIGHT POPS IN FOR
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE FORTIES WILL MODERATE TO LOW
FIFTIES BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WERE MOVING NORTH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
EAST TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS SURROUND THE IFR AREA OR ROUGHLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM VALLEY CITY TO S OF GFK TO N OF WASKISH MN.
ELSEWHERE VFR CIGS WERE AROUND 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FT. VFR CIGS WILL
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER AREA OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 15
HUNDRED FT OVER FAR NORTHWEST ND WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES
ROUGHLY AFTER 17Z TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 191447
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THE NORTHERN UPPER WAVE IS A TAD
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...AND WILL RAISE POPS ACROSS THIS CURRENT
RAIN AREA...AND SLOW DOWN THEIR EXIT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE MAIN ENERGY OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL SWING TO THE NE
TODAY...INDUCING 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS. THIS
FORCING WILL PROPAGATE NE TODAY...AND ANTICIPATE THE CURRENT AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE
ABOVE THINKING...AND CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE...AREAS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY SHOULD RECEIVE 0.20-0.40 INCHES OF RAINFALL (12Z-
00Z). ISOLD-SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLE
MOST AREAS WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING INTO THE REGION. IT IS ALSO
GOING TO GET WINDY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...BUT WITH SPEEDS
JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OPEN TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY,
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OF LS, AND EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE US BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP ON EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER JET WILL DIVE SOUTH ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH ON MON. THE JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OR FARTHER WEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES NOW AND WILL SHIFT
EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ND. LOW LEVEL JET WAS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY.
PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER MN SHOULD ALSO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER SD WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND RESTRICT
AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER WEST,
INGREDIENTS NOT COMING TOGETHER FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. WILL TRIM
BACK QPF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...A QUIET PERIOD WEATHERWISE WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW QUICKLY 500MB RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WITH IT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP. THUS HAVE SOME LIGHT POPS IN FOR
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE FORTIES WILL MODERATE TO LOW
FIFTIES BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WERE MOVING NORTH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
EAST TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS SURROUND THE IFR AREA OR ROUGHLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM VALLEY CITY TO S OF GFK TO N OF WASKISH MN.
ELSEWHERE VFR CIGS WERE AROUND 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FT. VFR CIGS WILL
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER AREA OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 15
HUNDRED FT OVER FAR NORTHWEST ND WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES
ROUGHLY AFTER 17Z TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KBIS 191429
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
929 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY IS ON TRACK WITH THE
STRATUS FIELD OVERTAKING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY SCATTER WITH DIURNAL HEATING WITH RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE 12-13
UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

INITIAL BATCH OF WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST...THOUGH SECONDARY ROUND OF SCATTERED WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ARE
STARTING TO DEVELOP AND WORK INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER
MAINLY OVER THE WEST AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN BEHIND THE
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY...HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PROLONGING CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE THROUGH
THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AND
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE DEEPENING TROUGH. THE
CURRENT 00Z MODEL SUITE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING AND SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...PUSHING OVER
MINNESOTA/EASTERN MANITOBA AND CLOSING OFF BY 12Z MONDAY. NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS COLD AIR
FILTERING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO JUST BELOW FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LOW WILL WORK ALONG THE MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BORDER ON MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE
DAY...THOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM. A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT WILL KEEP POPS LOW
WITH LACK OF MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER OUR AREA. MODELS START TO DISAGREE WITH THE POSITION OF THE
RIDGE AND WHETHER A FEW UPPER WAVES WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MVFR/VFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THIS DECK IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
LIFT AND SCATTER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE ALSO
INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
30-35 KTS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 191429
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
929 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY IS ON TRACK WITH THE
STRATUS FIELD OVERTAKING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY SCATTER WITH DIURNAL HEATING WITH RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE 12-13
UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

INITIAL BATCH OF WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST...THOUGH SECONDARY ROUND OF SCATTERED WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ARE
STARTING TO DEVELOP AND WORK INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER
MAINLY OVER THE WEST AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN BEHIND THE
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY...HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PROLONGING CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE THROUGH
THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AND
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE DEEPENING TROUGH. THE
CURRENT 00Z MODEL SUITE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING AND SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...PUSHING OVER
MINNESOTA/EASTERN MANITOBA AND CLOSING OFF BY 12Z MONDAY. NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS COLD AIR
FILTERING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO JUST BELOW FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LOW WILL WORK ALONG THE MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BORDER ON MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE
DAY...THOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM. A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT WILL KEEP POPS LOW
WITH LACK OF MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER OUR AREA. MODELS START TO DISAGREE WITH THE POSITION OF THE
RIDGE AND WHETHER A FEW UPPER WAVES WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MVFR/VFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THIS DECK IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
LIFT AND SCATTER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE ALSO
INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
30-35 KTS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 191429
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
929 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY IS ON TRACK WITH THE
STRATUS FIELD OVERTAKING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY SCATTER WITH DIURNAL HEATING WITH RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE 12-13
UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

INITIAL BATCH OF WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST...THOUGH SECONDARY ROUND OF SCATTERED WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ARE
STARTING TO DEVELOP AND WORK INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER
MAINLY OVER THE WEST AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN BEHIND THE
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY...HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PROLONGING CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE THROUGH
THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AND
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE DEEPENING TROUGH. THE
CURRENT 00Z MODEL SUITE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING AND SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...PUSHING OVER
MINNESOTA/EASTERN MANITOBA AND CLOSING OFF BY 12Z MONDAY. NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS COLD AIR
FILTERING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO JUST BELOW FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LOW WILL WORK ALONG THE MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BORDER ON MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE
DAY...THOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM. A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT WILL KEEP POPS LOW
WITH LACK OF MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER OUR AREA. MODELS START TO DISAGREE WITH THE POSITION OF THE
RIDGE AND WHETHER A FEW UPPER WAVES WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MVFR/VFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THIS DECK IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
LIFT AND SCATTER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE ALSO
INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
30-35 KTS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 191429
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
929 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY IS ON TRACK WITH THE
STRATUS FIELD OVERTAKING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY SCATTER WITH DIURNAL HEATING WITH RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE 12-13
UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

INITIAL BATCH OF WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST...THOUGH SECONDARY ROUND OF SCATTERED WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ARE
STARTING TO DEVELOP AND WORK INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER
MAINLY OVER THE WEST AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN BEHIND THE
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY...HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PROLONGING CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE THROUGH
THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AND
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE DEEPENING TROUGH. THE
CURRENT 00Z MODEL SUITE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING AND SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...PUSHING OVER
MINNESOTA/EASTERN MANITOBA AND CLOSING OFF BY 12Z MONDAY. NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS COLD AIR
FILTERING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO JUST BELOW FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LOW WILL WORK ALONG THE MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BORDER ON MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE
DAY...THOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM. A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT WILL KEEP POPS LOW
WITH LACK OF MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER OUR AREA. MODELS START TO DISAGREE WITH THE POSITION OF THE
RIDGE AND WHETHER A FEW UPPER WAVES WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MVFR/VFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THIS DECK IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
LIFT AND SCATTER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE ALSO
INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
30-35 KTS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KFGF 191203
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
703 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OPEN TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY,
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OF LS, AND EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE US BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP ON EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER JET WILL DIVE SOUTH ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH ON MON. THE JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OR FARTHER WEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES NOW AND WILL SHIFT
EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ND. LOW LEVEL JET WAS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY.
PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER MN SHOULD ALSO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER SD WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND RESTRICT
AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER WEST,
INGREDIENTS NOT COMING TOGETHER FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. WILL TRIM
BACK QPF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...A QUIET PERIOD WEATHERWISE WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW QUICKLY 500MB RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WITH IT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP. THUS HAVE SOME LIGHT POPS IN FOR
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE FORTIES WILL MODERATE TO LOW
FIFTIES BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WERE MOVING NORTH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
EAST TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS SURROUND THE IFR AREA OR ROUGHLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM VALLEY CITY TO S OF GFK TO N OF WASKISH MN.
ELSEWHERE VFR CIGS WERE AROUND 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FT. VFR CIGS WILL
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER AREA OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 15
HUNDRED FT OVER FAR NORTHWEST ND WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES
ROUGHLY AFTER 17Z TODAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 191203
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
703 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OPEN TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY,
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OF LS, AND EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE US BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP ON EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER JET WILL DIVE SOUTH ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH ON MON. THE JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OR FARTHER WEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES NOW AND WILL SHIFT
EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ND. LOW LEVEL JET WAS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY.
PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER MN SHOULD ALSO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER SD WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND RESTRICT
AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER WEST,
INGREDIENTS NOT COMING TOGETHER FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. WILL TRIM
BACK QPF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...A QUIET PERIOD WEATHERWISE WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW QUICKLY 500MB RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WITH IT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP. THUS HAVE SOME LIGHT POPS IN FOR
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE FORTIES WILL MODERATE TO LOW
FIFTIES BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WERE MOVING NORTH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
EAST TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS SURROUND THE IFR AREA OR ROUGHLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM VALLEY CITY TO S OF GFK TO N OF WASKISH MN.
ELSEWHERE VFR CIGS WERE AROUND 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FT. VFR CIGS WILL
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER AREA OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 15
HUNDRED FT OVER FAR NORTHWEST ND WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES
ROUGHLY AFTER 17Z TODAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 191203
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
703 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OPEN TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY,
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OF LS, AND EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE US BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP ON EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER JET WILL DIVE SOUTH ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH ON MON. THE JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OR FARTHER WEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES NOW AND WILL SHIFT
EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ND. LOW LEVEL JET WAS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY.
PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER MN SHOULD ALSO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER SD WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND RESTRICT
AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER WEST,
INGREDIENTS NOT COMING TOGETHER FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. WILL TRIM
BACK QPF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...A QUIET PERIOD WEATHERWISE WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW QUICKLY 500MB RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WITH IT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP. THUS HAVE SOME LIGHT POPS IN FOR
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE FORTIES WILL MODERATE TO LOW
FIFTIES BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WERE MOVING NORTH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
EAST TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS SURROUND THE IFR AREA OR ROUGHLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM VALLEY CITY TO S OF GFK TO N OF WASKISH MN.
ELSEWHERE VFR CIGS WERE AROUND 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FT. VFR CIGS WILL
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER AREA OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 15
HUNDRED FT OVER FAR NORTHWEST ND WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES
ROUGHLY AFTER 17Z TODAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 191203
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
703 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OPEN TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY,
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OF LS, AND EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE US BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP ON EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER JET WILL DIVE SOUTH ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH ON MON. THE JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OR FARTHER WEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES NOW AND WILL SHIFT
EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ND. LOW LEVEL JET WAS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY.
PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER MN SHOULD ALSO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER SD WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND RESTRICT
AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER WEST,
INGREDIENTS NOT COMING TOGETHER FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. WILL TRIM
BACK QPF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...A QUIET PERIOD WEATHERWISE WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW QUICKLY 500MB RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WITH IT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP. THUS HAVE SOME LIGHT POPS IN FOR
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE FORTIES WILL MODERATE TO LOW
FIFTIES BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WERE MOVING NORTH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
EAST TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS SURROUND THE IFR AREA OR ROUGHLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM VALLEY CITY TO S OF GFK TO N OF WASKISH MN.
ELSEWHERE VFR CIGS WERE AROUND 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FT. VFR CIGS WILL
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER AREA OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 15
HUNDRED FT OVER FAR NORTHWEST ND WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES
ROUGHLY AFTER 17Z TODAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 191203
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
703 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OPEN TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY,
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OF LS, AND EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE US BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP ON EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER JET WILL DIVE SOUTH ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH ON MON. THE JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OR FARTHER WEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES NOW AND WILL SHIFT
EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ND. LOW LEVEL JET WAS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY.
PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER MN SHOULD ALSO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER SD WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND RESTRICT
AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER WEST,
INGREDIENTS NOT COMING TOGETHER FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. WILL TRIM
BACK QPF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...A QUIET PERIOD WEATHERWISE WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW QUICKLY 500MB RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WITH IT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP. THUS HAVE SOME LIGHT POPS IN FOR
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE FORTIES WILL MODERATE TO LOW
FIFTIES BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WERE MOVING NORTH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
EAST TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS SURROUND THE IFR AREA OR ROUGHLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM VALLEY CITY TO S OF GFK TO N OF WASKISH MN.
ELSEWHERE VFR CIGS WERE AROUND 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FT. VFR CIGS WILL
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER AREA OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 15
HUNDRED FT OVER FAR NORTHWEST ND WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES
ROUGHLY AFTER 17Z TODAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 191203
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
703 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OPEN TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY,
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OF LS, AND EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE US BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP ON EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER JET WILL DIVE SOUTH ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH ON MON. THE JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OR FARTHER WEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES NOW AND WILL SHIFT
EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ND. LOW LEVEL JET WAS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY.
PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER MN SHOULD ALSO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER SD WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND RESTRICT
AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER WEST,
INGREDIENTS NOT COMING TOGETHER FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. WILL TRIM
BACK QPF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...A QUIET PERIOD WEATHERWISE WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW QUICKLY 500MB RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WITH IT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP. THUS HAVE SOME LIGHT POPS IN FOR
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE FORTIES WILL MODERATE TO LOW
FIFTIES BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WERE MOVING NORTH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
EAST TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS SURROUND THE IFR AREA OR ROUGHLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM VALLEY CITY TO S OF GFK TO N OF WASKISH MN.
ELSEWHERE VFR CIGS WERE AROUND 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FT. VFR CIGS WILL
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER AREA OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 15
HUNDRED FT OVER FAR NORTHWEST ND WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES
ROUGHLY AFTER 17Z TODAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 191203
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
703 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OPEN TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY,
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OF LS, AND EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE US BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP ON EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER JET WILL DIVE SOUTH ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH ON MON. THE JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OR FARTHER WEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES NOW AND WILL SHIFT
EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ND. LOW LEVEL JET WAS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY.
PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER MN SHOULD ALSO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER SD WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND RESTRICT
AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER WEST,
INGREDIENTS NOT COMING TOGETHER FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. WILL TRIM
BACK QPF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...A QUIET PERIOD WEATHERWISE WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW QUICKLY 500MB RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WITH IT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP. THUS HAVE SOME LIGHT POPS IN FOR
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE FORTIES WILL MODERATE TO LOW
FIFTIES BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WERE MOVING NORTH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
EAST TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS SURROUND THE IFR AREA OR ROUGHLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM VALLEY CITY TO S OF GFK TO N OF WASKISH MN.
ELSEWHERE VFR CIGS WERE AROUND 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FT. VFR CIGS WILL
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER AREA OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 15
HUNDRED FT OVER FAR NORTHWEST ND WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES
ROUGHLY AFTER 17Z TODAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 191203
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
703 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OPEN TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY,
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OF LS, AND EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE US BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP ON EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER JET WILL DIVE SOUTH ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH ON MON. THE JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OR FARTHER WEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES NOW AND WILL SHIFT
EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ND. LOW LEVEL JET WAS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY.
PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER MN SHOULD ALSO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER SD WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND RESTRICT
AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER WEST,
INGREDIENTS NOT COMING TOGETHER FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. WILL TRIM
BACK QPF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...A QUIET PERIOD WEATHERWISE WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW QUICKLY 500MB RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WITH IT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP. THUS HAVE SOME LIGHT POPS IN FOR
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE FORTIES WILL MODERATE TO LOW
FIFTIES BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WERE MOVING NORTH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
EAST TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS SURROUND THE IFR AREA OR ROUGHLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM VALLEY CITY TO S OF GFK TO N OF WASKISH MN.
ELSEWHERE VFR CIGS WERE AROUND 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FT. VFR CIGS WILL
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER AREA OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 15
HUNDRED FT OVER FAR NORTHWEST ND WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES
ROUGHLY AFTER 17Z TODAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KBIS 191135
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

INITIAL BATCH OF WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST...THOUGH SECONDARY ROUND OF SCATTERED WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ARE
STARTING TO DEVELOP AND WORK INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER
MAINLY OVER THE WEST AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN BEHIND THE
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY...HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PROLONGING CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE THROUGH
THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AND
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE DEEPENING TROUGH. THE
CURRENT 00Z MODEL SUITE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING AND SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...PUSHING OVER
MINNESOTA/EASTERN MANITOBA AND CLOSING OFF BY 12Z MONDAY. NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS COLD AIR
FILTERING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO JUST BELOW FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LOW WILL WORK ALONG THE MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BORDER ON MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE
DAY...THOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM. A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT WILL KEEP POPS LOW
WITH LACK OF MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER OUR AREA. MODELS START TO DISAGREE WITH THE POSITION OF THE
RIDGE AND WHETHER A FEW UPPER WAVES WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. SCT -SHRA
WILL SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH WILL DIMINISH IN
THE EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 190908
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
408 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY...HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PROLONGING CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE THROUGH
THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AND
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE DEEPENING TROUGH. THE
CURRENT 00Z MODEL SUITE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING AND SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...PUSHING OVER
MINNESOTA/EASTERN MANITOBA AND CLOSING OFF BY 12Z MONDAY. NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS COLD AIR
FILTERING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO JUST BELOW FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LOW WILL WORK ALONG THE MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BORDER ON MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE
DAY...THOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM. A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT WILL KEEP POPS LOW
WITH LACK OF MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER OUR AREA. MODELS START TO DISAGREE WITH THE POSITION OF THE
RIDGE AND WHETHER A FEW UPPER WAVES WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.
KJMS HAS THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AC









000
FXUS63 KBIS 190908
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
408 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY...HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PROLONGING CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE THROUGH
THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AND
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE DEEPENING TROUGH. THE
CURRENT 00Z MODEL SUITE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING AND SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...PUSHING OVER
MINNESOTA/EASTERN MANITOBA AND CLOSING OFF BY 12Z MONDAY. NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS COLD AIR
FILTERING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO JUST BELOW FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LOW WILL WORK ALONG THE MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BORDER ON MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE
DAY...THOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM. A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT WILL KEEP POPS LOW
WITH LACK OF MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER OUR AREA. MODELS START TO DISAGREE WITH THE POSITION OF THE
RIDGE AND WHETHER A FEW UPPER WAVES WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.
KJMS HAS THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AC










000
FXUS63 KFGF 190857
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
357 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OPEN TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY,
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OF LS, AND EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE US BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP ON EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER JET WILL DIVE SOUTH ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH ON MON. THE JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OR FARTHER WEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES NOW AND WILL SHIFT
EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ND. LOW LEVEL JET WAS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY.
PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER MN SHOULD ALSO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER SD WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND RESTRICT
AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER WEST,
INGREDIENTS NOT COMING TOGETHER FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. WILL TRIM
BACK QPF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...A QUIET PERIOD WEATHERWISE WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW QUICKLY 500MB RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WITH IT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP. THUS HAVE SOME LIGHT POPS IN FOR
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE FORTIES WILL MODERATE TO LOW
FIFTIES BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

RAIN HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND
SHOULD IMPACT THE KFAR AREA AROUND 06 OR 07Z. THE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VIS OVER 6SM BUT WILL INCLUDE SOME CIGS
AROUND 1500-2500 FT FOR A WHILE. OTHER SITES WILL STAY
VFR...DEPENDING ON AMOUNTS OF SATURATION. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
KDVL AROUND 06 TO 07Z AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND MERGES WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM COMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH. ALL SITES SHOULD SEE WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS
POSSIBLE. SUSTAINED RAIN WILL END BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 190857
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
357 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OPEN TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY,
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OF LS, AND EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE US BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP ON EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER JET WILL DIVE SOUTH ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH ON MON. THE JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OR FARTHER WEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES NOW AND WILL SHIFT
EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ND. LOW LEVEL JET WAS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY.
PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER MN SHOULD ALSO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER SD WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND RESTRICT
AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER WEST,
INGREDIENTS NOT COMING TOGETHER FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. WILL TRIM
BACK QPF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...A QUIET PERIOD WEATHERWISE WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW QUICKLY 500MB RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WITH IT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP. THUS HAVE SOME LIGHT POPS IN FOR
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE FORTIES WILL MODERATE TO LOW
FIFTIES BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

RAIN HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND
SHOULD IMPACT THE KFAR AREA AROUND 06 OR 07Z. THE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VIS OVER 6SM BUT WILL INCLUDE SOME CIGS
AROUND 1500-2500 FT FOR A WHILE. OTHER SITES WILL STAY
VFR...DEPENDING ON AMOUNTS OF SATURATION. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
KDVL AROUND 06 TO 07Z AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND MERGES WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM COMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH. ALL SITES SHOULD SEE WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS
POSSIBLE. SUSTAINED RAIN WILL END BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JR





000
FXUS63 KBIS 190518
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1218 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

ALTHOUGH THE 01 UTC RAP/HRRR ARE OVERDOING THE QPF IN MOST
AREAS...THEY HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND
HAVE UTILIZED THIS BLEND FOR POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIPITATION BAND FROM
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL...WITH BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
BISMARCK THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AROUND 12-14Z...LOWERED POPS
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MORNING...THEN BUMPED THEM UP MID TO LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT |748 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR...ALSO REMOVED
THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO REMAIN OVER
THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
BAND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FROM AROUND MINOT TO GARRISON
TO HEBRON SHOULD HELP MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR KBIS THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MOVING TOWARD BISMARCK
ARE NOW DISSIPATING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE. 19 APRIL 00 UTC
SOUNDING STILL SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING AROUND 10K FEET.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IS PUSHING SHOWERS INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WITH MORE INSOLATION
TO WORK WITH IS PRODUCING A LINE OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
THUNDER IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...DO NOT EXPECT THUNDER TO CONTINUE MUCH LONGER. WILL KEEP
A MENTION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVES LIFTING NORTH AND TRACKING EAST CONVERGE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND THEN MOVE INTO BETTER MOISTURE AND
SURFACE SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT. ADJUSTED POPS/SKY COVER BASED MAINLY ON SHORT TERM
CONSENSUS MODEL AND LATEST RADAR. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
FROM THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

AS OF 1930 UTC...A COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT AND WILL APPROACH
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY 01-02 UTC. AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT PHASES WITH THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A WINDY SUNDAY
IS FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE NOW DEEPENING LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA.
AT THIS TIME...WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITH 30 TO 35 KTS TO MIX IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE MID 30S NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. GIVEN GOOD
AGREEMENT...WILL WEIGH HEAVILY ON THE 16-18 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS
BLENDED TO THE GLOBAL 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

WINDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...COOL AND DRY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW ENTERS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA...MOISTURE SHOULD WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE...PROVIDING
NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN. THE HIGH RESOLUTION
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS (ECMWF/GFS). WITH THE LOW
REMAINING NEARBY AND REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A FAVORABLE
JET STREAK...LIGHT SHOWERS HERE AND THERE AREN`T OUT OF THE
QUESTION THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AND PROPAGATING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
THESE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. THIS COULD CREATE RATHER CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS MONDAY AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS BELOW 20 PERCENT.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...UPPER LOW SLOWLY WORKS
OFF TO THE EAST KEEPING NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS WEEK...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE WITH READINGS IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS AND 20S/30S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.
KBIS/KJMS HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 50S...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AC
FIRE WEATHER...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 190518
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1218 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

ALTHOUGH THE 01 UTC RAP/HRRR ARE OVERDOING THE QPF IN MOST
AREAS...THEY HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND
HAVE UTILIZED THIS BLEND FOR POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIPITATION BAND FROM
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL...WITH BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
BISMARCK THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AROUND 12-14Z...LOWERED POPS
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MORNING...THEN BUMPED THEM UP MID TO LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT |748 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR...ALSO REMOVED
THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO REMAIN OVER
THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
BAND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FROM AROUND MINOT TO GARRISON
TO HEBRON SHOULD HELP MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR KBIS THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MOVING TOWARD BISMARCK
ARE NOW DISSIPATING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE. 19 APRIL 00 UTC
SOUNDING STILL SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING AROUND 10K FEET.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IS PUSHING SHOWERS INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WITH MORE INSOLATION
TO WORK WITH IS PRODUCING A LINE OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
THUNDER IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...DO NOT EXPECT THUNDER TO CONTINUE MUCH LONGER. WILL KEEP
A MENTION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVES LIFTING NORTH AND TRACKING EAST CONVERGE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND THEN MOVE INTO BETTER MOISTURE AND
SURFACE SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT. ADJUSTED POPS/SKY COVER BASED MAINLY ON SHORT TERM
CONSENSUS MODEL AND LATEST RADAR. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
FROM THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

AS OF 1930 UTC...A COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT AND WILL APPROACH
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY 01-02 UTC. AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT PHASES WITH THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A WINDY SUNDAY
IS FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE NOW DEEPENING LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA.
AT THIS TIME...WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITH 30 TO 35 KTS TO MIX IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE MID 30S NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. GIVEN GOOD
AGREEMENT...WILL WEIGH HEAVILY ON THE 16-18 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS
BLENDED TO THE GLOBAL 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

WINDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...COOL AND DRY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW ENTERS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA...MOISTURE SHOULD WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE...PROVIDING
NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN. THE HIGH RESOLUTION
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS (ECMWF/GFS). WITH THE LOW
REMAINING NEARBY AND REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A FAVORABLE
JET STREAK...LIGHT SHOWERS HERE AND THERE AREN`T OUT OF THE
QUESTION THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AND PROPAGATING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
THESE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. THIS COULD CREATE RATHER CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS MONDAY AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS BELOW 20 PERCENT.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...UPPER LOW SLOWLY WORKS
OFF TO THE EAST KEEPING NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS WEEK...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE WITH READINGS IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS AND 20S/30S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.
KBIS/KJMS HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 50S...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AC
FIRE WEATHER...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 190518
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1218 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

ALTHOUGH THE 01 UTC RAP/HRRR ARE OVERDOING THE QPF IN MOST
AREAS...THEY HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND
HAVE UTILIZED THIS BLEND FOR POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIPITATION BAND FROM
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL...WITH BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
BISMARCK THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AROUND 12-14Z...LOWERED POPS
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MORNING...THEN BUMPED THEM UP MID TO LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT |748 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR...ALSO REMOVED
THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO REMAIN OVER
THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
BAND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FROM AROUND MINOT TO GARRISON
TO HEBRON SHOULD HELP MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR KBIS THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MOVING TOWARD BISMARCK
ARE NOW DISSIPATING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE. 19 APRIL 00 UTC
SOUNDING STILL SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING AROUND 10K FEET.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IS PUSHING SHOWERS INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WITH MORE INSOLATION
TO WORK WITH IS PRODUCING A LINE OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
THUNDER IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...DO NOT EXPECT THUNDER TO CONTINUE MUCH LONGER. WILL KEEP
A MENTION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVES LIFTING NORTH AND TRACKING EAST CONVERGE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND THEN MOVE INTO BETTER MOISTURE AND
SURFACE SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT. ADJUSTED POPS/SKY COVER BASED MAINLY ON SHORT TERM
CONSENSUS MODEL AND LATEST RADAR. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
FROM THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

AS OF 1930 UTC...A COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT AND WILL APPROACH
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY 01-02 UTC. AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT PHASES WITH THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A WINDY SUNDAY
IS FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE NOW DEEPENING LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA.
AT THIS TIME...WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITH 30 TO 35 KTS TO MIX IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE MID 30S NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. GIVEN GOOD
AGREEMENT...WILL WEIGH HEAVILY ON THE 16-18 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS
BLENDED TO THE GLOBAL 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

WINDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...COOL AND DRY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW ENTERS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA...MOISTURE SHOULD WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE...PROVIDING
NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN. THE HIGH RESOLUTION
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS (ECMWF/GFS). WITH THE LOW
REMAINING NEARBY AND REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A FAVORABLE
JET STREAK...LIGHT SHOWERS HERE AND THERE AREN`T OUT OF THE
QUESTION THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AND PROPAGATING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
THESE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. THIS COULD CREATE RATHER CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS MONDAY AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS BELOW 20 PERCENT.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...UPPER LOW SLOWLY WORKS
OFF TO THE EAST KEEPING NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS WEEK...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE WITH READINGS IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS AND 20S/30S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.
KBIS/KJMS HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 50S...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AC
FIRE WEATHER...AYD







000
FXUS63 KFGF 190449
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1149 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

RAIN HAS STARTED IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH WHERE THE
DRY SLOT ENDS UP...BUT FOR NOW WITH THE PRECIP COMING UP FROM THE
SOUTH AND THE RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST...MOST SITES
SHOULD BE GETTING AT LEAST SOME RAIN. TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND TRIMMED QPF JUST A TAD FROM THE RED
WESTWARD AS SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING MORE EASTWARD
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. SOME HIGHER RETURNS
ARE ENTERING GRANT COUNTY ALTHOUGH ELBOW LAKE HAS YET TO REPORT
RAIN. THINK THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN MOVING IN AND
EVENTUAL SATURATION. DID SLOW DOWN THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AS IT
SEEMS THAT LOCATIONS NORTH OF FARGO WILL NOT SEE MUCH BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. WESTERN SHOWERS STILL A WAYS FROM MOVING INTO THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN...BUT SHOULD BE COMING IN AROUND THE 04 TO 05Z TIME
FRAME. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE QPF AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT BEFORE 06Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS SO FAR AS THE FORECAST SEEMS
ON TRACK FOR RAIN COMING IN LATER TONIGHT. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE SOME PRECIP GETTING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AROUND
02-03Z...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN RADAR LOOPS. CURRENT POPS
START RAMPING UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO WILL KEEP TIMING AS IT
IS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE AREA OF PCPN THAT WILL FINALLY
MOVE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEEING A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER MOVING NORTHWARD NOW...BUT REALLY DO NOT SEE MUCH GETTING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FA UNTIL AFTER 00Z SUN. THEN THE MODELS SHOW TWO
DISTINCT AREAS LIFTING INTO THE FA...ONE FROM THE NW AND THE OTHER
FROM THE SOUTH. THE NW AREA OF PCPN WILL FINALLY MERGE WITH THE
SOUTHERN ONE BUT THE SOUTHERN ONE WILL BE THE ONE THAT HAS THE
HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHER PCPN
AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER SOUTHEAST ND AND MOST OF THE NORTHWEST
QUARTER OF MN. STILL LOOKING AT AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES
OVER THAT AREA AND LESS WEST OF THERE. ON SUNDAY THE MAIN QUESTION
IS HOW FAST THE AREA OF PCPN LIFTS THRU THE FA. OPERATIONAL MODELS
SHOW A LITTLE SLOWER SOLUTION THAN THE NAM12/SREF...BASICALLY
KEEPING STEADY RAIN OVER NW MN THRU AT LEAST 18Z SUN THEN TAPERING
BACK. NAM12/SREF WOULD HAVE MOST OF IT OVER BY 15Z SUNDAY AND THEN
MUCH LESS DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS A LITTLE BREEZY AND
TEMPS ALSO BEGIN TO DROP BEHIND THE SYSTEM. LOOKING AT A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE BY LATE NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A LIGHT
AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN GRASSY AREAS IN THE NORTH AND MAYBE
A FEW FLAKES TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

STILL LOOKING AT SOME WRAPAROUND PCPN INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA. AGAIN TEMPS COOL ENOUGH AT NIGHT
THAT LIGHT SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE. COULD END UP WITH AN INCH OR TWO
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. OTHERWISE WINDS
REALLY CRANK UP DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SO LOOKING AT A RAW DAY
OVERALL. LOWER WINDS TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NOSE IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER LOW TO THE EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
ONLY SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST. FOR THIS REGION...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
THE WEATHER WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

RAIN HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND
SHOULD IMPACT THE KFAR AREA AROUND 06 OR 07Z. THE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VIS OVER 6SM BUT WILL INCLUDE SOME CIGS
AROUND 1500-2500 FT FOR A WHILE. OTHER SITES WILL STAY
VFR...DEPENDING ON AMOUNTS OF SATURATION. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
KDVL AROUND 06 TO 07Z AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND MERGES WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM COMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH. ALL SITES SHOULD SEE WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS
POSSIBLE. SUSTAINED RAIN WILL END BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 190449
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1149 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

RAIN HAS STARTED IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH WHERE THE
DRY SLOT ENDS UP...BUT FOR NOW WITH THE PRECIP COMING UP FROM THE
SOUTH AND THE RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST...MOST SITES
SHOULD BE GETTING AT LEAST SOME RAIN. TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND TRIMMED QPF JUST A TAD FROM THE RED
WESTWARD AS SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING MORE EASTWARD
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. SOME HIGHER RETURNS
ARE ENTERING GRANT COUNTY ALTHOUGH ELBOW LAKE HAS YET TO REPORT
RAIN. THINK THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN MOVING IN AND
EVENTUAL SATURATION. DID SLOW DOWN THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AS IT
SEEMS THAT LOCATIONS NORTH OF FARGO WILL NOT SEE MUCH BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. WESTERN SHOWERS STILL A WAYS FROM MOVING INTO THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN...BUT SHOULD BE COMING IN AROUND THE 04 TO 05Z TIME
FRAME. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE QPF AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT BEFORE 06Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS SO FAR AS THE FORECAST SEEMS
ON TRACK FOR RAIN COMING IN LATER TONIGHT. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE SOME PRECIP GETTING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AROUND
02-03Z...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN RADAR LOOPS. CURRENT POPS
START RAMPING UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO WILL KEEP TIMING AS IT
IS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE AREA OF PCPN THAT WILL FINALLY
MOVE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEEING A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER MOVING NORTHWARD NOW...BUT REALLY DO NOT SEE MUCH GETTING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FA UNTIL AFTER 00Z SUN. THEN THE MODELS SHOW TWO
DISTINCT AREAS LIFTING INTO THE FA...ONE FROM THE NW AND THE OTHER
FROM THE SOUTH. THE NW AREA OF PCPN WILL FINALLY MERGE WITH THE
SOUTHERN ONE BUT THE SOUTHERN ONE WILL BE THE ONE THAT HAS THE
HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHER PCPN
AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER SOUTHEAST ND AND MOST OF THE NORTHWEST
QUARTER OF MN. STILL LOOKING AT AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES
OVER THAT AREA AND LESS WEST OF THERE. ON SUNDAY THE MAIN QUESTION
IS HOW FAST THE AREA OF PCPN LIFTS THRU THE FA. OPERATIONAL MODELS
SHOW A LITTLE SLOWER SOLUTION THAN THE NAM12/SREF...BASICALLY
KEEPING STEADY RAIN OVER NW MN THRU AT LEAST 18Z SUN THEN TAPERING
BACK. NAM12/SREF WOULD HAVE MOST OF IT OVER BY 15Z SUNDAY AND THEN
MUCH LESS DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS A LITTLE BREEZY AND
TEMPS ALSO BEGIN TO DROP BEHIND THE SYSTEM. LOOKING AT A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE BY LATE NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A LIGHT
AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN GRASSY AREAS IN THE NORTH AND MAYBE
A FEW FLAKES TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

STILL LOOKING AT SOME WRAPAROUND PCPN INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA. AGAIN TEMPS COOL ENOUGH AT NIGHT
THAT LIGHT SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE. COULD END UP WITH AN INCH OR TWO
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. OTHERWISE WINDS
REALLY CRANK UP DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SO LOOKING AT A RAW DAY
OVERALL. LOWER WINDS TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NOSE IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER LOW TO THE EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
ONLY SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST. FOR THIS REGION...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
THE WEATHER WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

RAIN HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND
SHOULD IMPACT THE KFAR AREA AROUND 06 OR 07Z. THE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VIS OVER 6SM BUT WILL INCLUDE SOME CIGS
AROUND 1500-2500 FT FOR A WHILE. OTHER SITES WILL STAY
VFR...DEPENDING ON AMOUNTS OF SATURATION. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
KDVL AROUND 06 TO 07Z AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND MERGES WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM COMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH. ALL SITES SHOULD SEE WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS
POSSIBLE. SUSTAINED RAIN WILL END BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 190449
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1149 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

RAIN HAS STARTED IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH WHERE THE
DRY SLOT ENDS UP...BUT FOR NOW WITH THE PRECIP COMING UP FROM THE
SOUTH AND THE RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST...MOST SITES
SHOULD BE GETTING AT LEAST SOME RAIN. TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND TRIMMED QPF JUST A TAD FROM THE RED
WESTWARD AS SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING MORE EASTWARD
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. SOME HIGHER RETURNS
ARE ENTERING GRANT COUNTY ALTHOUGH ELBOW LAKE HAS YET TO REPORT
RAIN. THINK THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN MOVING IN AND
EVENTUAL SATURATION. DID SLOW DOWN THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AS IT
SEEMS THAT LOCATIONS NORTH OF FARGO WILL NOT SEE MUCH BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. WESTERN SHOWERS STILL A WAYS FROM MOVING INTO THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN...BUT SHOULD BE COMING IN AROUND THE 04 TO 05Z TIME
FRAME. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE QPF AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT BEFORE 06Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS SO FAR AS THE FORECAST SEEMS
ON TRACK FOR RAIN COMING IN LATER TONIGHT. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE SOME PRECIP GETTING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AROUND
02-03Z...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN RADAR LOOPS. CURRENT POPS
START RAMPING UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO WILL KEEP TIMING AS IT
IS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE AREA OF PCPN THAT WILL FINALLY
MOVE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEEING A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER MOVING NORTHWARD NOW...BUT REALLY DO NOT SEE MUCH GETTING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FA UNTIL AFTER 00Z SUN. THEN THE MODELS SHOW TWO
DISTINCT AREAS LIFTING INTO THE FA...ONE FROM THE NW AND THE OTHER
FROM THE SOUTH. THE NW AREA OF PCPN WILL FINALLY MERGE WITH THE
SOUTHERN ONE BUT THE SOUTHERN ONE WILL BE THE ONE THAT HAS THE
HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHER PCPN
AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER SOUTHEAST ND AND MOST OF THE NORTHWEST
QUARTER OF MN. STILL LOOKING AT AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES
OVER THAT AREA AND LESS WEST OF THERE. ON SUNDAY THE MAIN QUESTION
IS HOW FAST THE AREA OF PCPN LIFTS THRU THE FA. OPERATIONAL MODELS
SHOW A LITTLE SLOWER SOLUTION THAN THE NAM12/SREF...BASICALLY
KEEPING STEADY RAIN OVER NW MN THRU AT LEAST 18Z SUN THEN TAPERING
BACK. NAM12/SREF WOULD HAVE MOST OF IT OVER BY 15Z SUNDAY AND THEN
MUCH LESS DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS A LITTLE BREEZY AND
TEMPS ALSO BEGIN TO DROP BEHIND THE SYSTEM. LOOKING AT A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE BY LATE NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A LIGHT
AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN GRASSY AREAS IN THE NORTH AND MAYBE
A FEW FLAKES TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

STILL LOOKING AT SOME WRAPAROUND PCPN INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA. AGAIN TEMPS COOL ENOUGH AT NIGHT
THAT LIGHT SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE. COULD END UP WITH AN INCH OR TWO
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. OTHERWISE WINDS
REALLY CRANK UP DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SO LOOKING AT A RAW DAY
OVERALL. LOWER WINDS TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NOSE IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER LOW TO THE EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
ONLY SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST. FOR THIS REGION...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
THE WEATHER WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

RAIN HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND
SHOULD IMPACT THE KFAR AREA AROUND 06 OR 07Z. THE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VIS OVER 6SM BUT WILL INCLUDE SOME CIGS
AROUND 1500-2500 FT FOR A WHILE. OTHER SITES WILL STAY
VFR...DEPENDING ON AMOUNTS OF SATURATION. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
KDVL AROUND 06 TO 07Z AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND MERGES WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM COMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH. ALL SITES SHOULD SEE WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS
POSSIBLE. SUSTAINED RAIN WILL END BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 190449
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1149 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

RAIN HAS STARTED IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH WHERE THE
DRY SLOT ENDS UP...BUT FOR NOW WITH THE PRECIP COMING UP FROM THE
SOUTH AND THE RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST...MOST SITES
SHOULD BE GETTING AT LEAST SOME RAIN. TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND TRIMMED QPF JUST A TAD FROM THE RED
WESTWARD AS SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING MORE EASTWARD
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. SOME HIGHER RETURNS
ARE ENTERING GRANT COUNTY ALTHOUGH ELBOW LAKE HAS YET TO REPORT
RAIN. THINK THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN MOVING IN AND
EVENTUAL SATURATION. DID SLOW DOWN THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AS IT
SEEMS THAT LOCATIONS NORTH OF FARGO WILL NOT SEE MUCH BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. WESTERN SHOWERS STILL A WAYS FROM MOVING INTO THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN...BUT SHOULD BE COMING IN AROUND THE 04 TO 05Z TIME
FRAME. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE QPF AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT BEFORE 06Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS SO FAR AS THE FORECAST SEEMS
ON TRACK FOR RAIN COMING IN LATER TONIGHT. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE SOME PRECIP GETTING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AROUND
02-03Z...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN RADAR LOOPS. CURRENT POPS
START RAMPING UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO WILL KEEP TIMING AS IT
IS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE AREA OF PCPN THAT WILL FINALLY
MOVE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEEING A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER MOVING NORTHWARD NOW...BUT REALLY DO NOT SEE MUCH GETTING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FA UNTIL AFTER 00Z SUN. THEN THE MODELS SHOW TWO
DISTINCT AREAS LIFTING INTO THE FA...ONE FROM THE NW AND THE OTHER
FROM THE SOUTH. THE NW AREA OF PCPN WILL FINALLY MERGE WITH THE
SOUTHERN ONE BUT THE SOUTHERN ONE WILL BE THE ONE THAT HAS THE
HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHER PCPN
AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER SOUTHEAST ND AND MOST OF THE NORTHWEST
QUARTER OF MN. STILL LOOKING AT AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES
OVER THAT AREA AND LESS WEST OF THERE. ON SUNDAY THE MAIN QUESTION
IS HOW FAST THE AREA OF PCPN LIFTS THRU THE FA. OPERATIONAL MODELS
SHOW A LITTLE SLOWER SOLUTION THAN THE NAM12/SREF...BASICALLY
KEEPING STEADY RAIN OVER NW MN THRU AT LEAST 18Z SUN THEN TAPERING
BACK. NAM12/SREF WOULD HAVE MOST OF IT OVER BY 15Z SUNDAY AND THEN
MUCH LESS DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS A LITTLE BREEZY AND
TEMPS ALSO BEGIN TO DROP BEHIND THE SYSTEM. LOOKING AT A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE BY LATE NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A LIGHT
AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN GRASSY AREAS IN THE NORTH AND MAYBE
A FEW FLAKES TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

STILL LOOKING AT SOME WRAPAROUND PCPN INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA. AGAIN TEMPS COOL ENOUGH AT NIGHT
THAT LIGHT SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE. COULD END UP WITH AN INCH OR TWO
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. OTHERWISE WINDS
REALLY CRANK UP DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SO LOOKING AT A RAW DAY
OVERALL. LOWER WINDS TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NOSE IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER LOW TO THE EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
ONLY SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST. FOR THIS REGION...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
THE WEATHER WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

RAIN HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND
SHOULD IMPACT THE KFAR AREA AROUND 06 OR 07Z. THE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VIS OVER 6SM BUT WILL INCLUDE SOME CIGS
AROUND 1500-2500 FT FOR A WHILE. OTHER SITES WILL STAY
VFR...DEPENDING ON AMOUNTS OF SATURATION. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
KDVL AROUND 06 TO 07Z AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND MERGES WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM COMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH. ALL SITES SHOULD SEE WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS
POSSIBLE. SUSTAINED RAIN WILL END BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...JR






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities