000
FXUS63 KBIS 210253
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
953 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.DISCUSSION...REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION AT SUNSET. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TOPPING A RIDGE OVER WESTERN US WILL MOVE TO NORTH
DAKOTA ON MONDAY. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY WILL BRING ADDED MOISTURE TO THE LOW LEVELS BUT
PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. LATEST NAM MODEL RUN
DOES GENERATE A SMALL PRECIP ACROSS THE WEST AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.


&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COVER THE REGION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST AND NORTH AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. VFR AT ALL
TAF SITES THOUGH 7 PM MONDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA

000
FXUS63 KFGF 210226
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
926 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY SIMPLE FORECAST TONIGHT. CU FIELD HAS DISSIPATED WITH
LOSS OF SOLAR. TEMPS IN SOUTHEAST ND WELL ABOVE CURVE...SO HAVE MADE
ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH 06Z...BUT WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS IN THAT
AREA...TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN DROPPING QUICKLY (THIS IS ONLY AREA
WITH ANY CU LEFT) VERY SHORTLY AND CATCH UP WITH REST OF AREA BY
12Z. ALSO DECREASED SKY COVER FOR TONIGHT. VIS IS SHOWING A BAND
OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA...THIS IS QUICK MOVING AND NOT SPREADING OUT SO SEE
MINIMAL IMPACT ON TEMPS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN PART OF
STATE WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE EAST...BUT DO SEE THEM
EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO DEVILS LAKE AREA TOMORROW...GIVEN MOST
RECENT NAM RH CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING
THEN TURN TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

CHALLENGES CONCERN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
SEVERE THREAT TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL
USE A ECMWF/NAM/GEM BLEND...SINCE THE GFS APPEARS TOO MOIST AND IS
OVERLY BULLISH WITH QPF MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT...THERMAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE SOON AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY PERIODS OF CIRRUS. LIGHT NORTHWEST
WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY DAYBREAK AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 40S...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE
UPPER 30S IN LOW-LYING FAVORED AREAS.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND STRONG SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. DIFFICULT POP FORECAST FOR MONDAY GIVEN
MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR
WHERE A COMBINATION OF 850 HPA AND 500 HPA JETS...MOISTURE...AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
12 UTC ECMWF PAINTS QPF A BIT FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION...
SO MAY NEED TO EXTEND 20 TO 30 POPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20 TO 30 PERCENT) SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AS STRENGTHENING 850 TO 700 HPA
THERMAL RIDGE CAPS THE LOW-LEVELS FARTHER SOUTH. WITH CONTINUING
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DRY ADIABATIC BOUNDARY LAYER TO
850 HPA...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHEAST WIND
THROUGH THE DAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN. INSTABILITY
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
50S...BUT STRONG JET DYNAMICS SHOULD RESULT IS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT ONCE CAP BREAKS FROM COOLING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS A SEE TEXT AREA
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS
POINT. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY AND NOT
INTRODUCE SEVERE WORDING AT THIS TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH
CLOSELY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS
AND STORMS...BUT MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A BIT COOLER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

PATTERN LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE LONGER TERM MODELS IN
DEPICTING SEVERAL THINGS IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME. FIRST A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. FOR THE MOST PART THIS SETS UP SOME
SORT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FA...AT LEAST INITIALLY. TOWARD
THE WEEKEND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF RIDGING
EXTENDING UP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
THE HPC GUIDANCE PUTS OUT PCPN CHANCES FOR EVERY DAY OF THE LONG
TERM. HARD THIS FAR OUT TO SPLIT OFF ANY SMALLER TIME PERIODS TO GO
DRY BUT IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE. GENERALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW PERIODS
CAN BE PRETTY ACTIVE SO WILL KEEP GUIDANCE PRETTY MUCH AS IS FOR
TODAY. SAT/SUN TIME FRAME LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS AS THE RIDGE
PUMPS UP.

AVIATION...

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NEARLY THE ENTIRE FA. WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING EXPECT
THAT MOST OF THIS CUMULUS WILL FADE AWAY. AFTER THAT THERE SHOULD
BE A PERIOD OF TIME THAT SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS ARE LIGHT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING INCREASING CIRRUS TOWARD MORNING WITH WINDS
SWITCHING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SPEICHER

000
FXUS63 KBIS 210000
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
700 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IN MONTANA WILL BRING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RETURN MOISTURE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. EARLY THIS EVENING CONGESTED CUMULUS SPREADING OUT
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL THE RESULT OF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
HAVING BEEN REACHED/SURPASSED. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES NOW SHOWING
SOME OF THE CU DISSIPATING WEST. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENT TO
CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING...AS THE CLOUD ELEMENTS WILL LINGER A
LITTLE THEN DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS VERY
GOOD.


&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN MONTANA. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RETURN SOME MOISTURE TO THE REGION MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
IN NATURE...THEREFORE...CODED AS VCSH FOR NOW AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
AS TO POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. VFR AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA

000
FXUS63 KFGF 202030
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
330 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

CHALLENGES CONCERN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
SEVERE THREAT TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL
USE A ECMWF/NAM/GEM BLEND...SINCE THE GFS APPEARS TOO MOIST AND IS
OVERLY BULLISH WITH QPF MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT...THERMAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE SOON AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY PERIODS OF CIRRUS. LIGHT NORTHWEST
WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY DAYBREAK AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 40S...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE
UPPER 30S IN LOW-LYING FAVORED AREAS.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND STRONG SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. DIFFICULT POP FORECAST FOR MONDAY GIVEN
MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR
WHERE A COMBINATION OF 850 HPA AND 500 HPA JETS...MOISTURE...AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
12 UTC ECMWF PAINTS QPF A BIT FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION...
SO MAY NEED TO EXTEND 20 TO 30 POPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20 TO 30 PERCENT) SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AS STRENGTHENING 850 TO 700 HPA
THERMAL RIDGE CAPS THE LOW-LEVELS FARTHER SOUTH. WITH CONTINUING
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DRY ADIABATIC BOUNDARY LAYER TO
850 HPA...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHEAST WIND
THROUGH THE DAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN. INSTABILITY
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
50S...BUT STRONG JET DYNAMICS SHOULD RESULT IS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT ONCE CAP BREAKS FROM COOLING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS A SEE TEXT AREA
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS
POINT. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY AND NOT
INTRODUCE SEVERE WORDING AT THIS TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH
CLOSELY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS
AND STORMS...BUT MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A BIT COOLER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

PATTERN LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE LONGER TERM MODELS IN
DEPICTING SEVERAL THINGS IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME. FIRST A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. FOR THE MOST PART THIS SETS UP SOME
SORT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FA...AT LEAST INITIALLY. TOWARD
THE WEEKEND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF RIDGING
EXTENDING UP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
THE HPC GUIDANCE PUTS OUT PCPN CHANCES FOR EVERY DAY OF THE LONG
TERM. HARD THIS FAR OUT TO SPLIT OFF ANY SMALLER TIME PERIODS TO GO
DRY BUT IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE. GENERALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW PERIODS
CAN BE PRETTY ACTIVE SO WILL KEEP GUIDANCE PRETTY MUCH AS IS FOR
TODAY. SAT/SUN TIME FRAME LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS AS THE RIDGE
PUMPS UP.

&&

.AVIATION...

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NEARLY THE ENTIRE FA. WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING EXPECT
THAT MOST OF THIS CUMULUS WILL FADE AWAY. AFTER THAT THERE SHOULD
BE A PERIOD OF TIME THAT SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS ARE LIGHT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING INCREASING CIRRUS TOWARD MORNING WITH WINDS
SWITCHING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

ROGERS/GODON

000
FXUS63 KBIS 202012
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
312 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
THE CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE
WITH THE SETTING SUN. CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID
LEVEL WAVE THAT WILL BRING A SHOWER CHANCE FOR MONDAY AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST CHANCES NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD ABOVE 40 TONIGHT...AND MONDAY WILL BE
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S...FOLLOWED BY A MILD
NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

A CUMULUS FIELD FORMED THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA.
THE FIELD FORMED OVER AREAS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS OF 35 AND
HIGHER AND APPEARED AESTHETICALLY PLEASING ON THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE AS IT ROTATES ANTI-CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE H85 RIDGE
AXIS THAT EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...RIGHT THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES. THE FIELD WAS SCATTERED TO IN SOME LOCATIONS
BROKEN...AND WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE
SETTING SUN...ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST SOME VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL
ECLIPSE THIS EVENING. FOR INFORMATION ON THE PARTIAL ECLIPSE SEE
THE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY HEADLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS.

HIGH CLOUDS WERE ADVANCING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE NEXT
MID LEVEL ENERGY WAVE...AND WILL BE INCREASING INTO NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT. THIS WAVE TRAVERSES THE CANADIAN BORDER ON MONDAY.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...LEADING TO A BREEZY
DAY...BUT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE LACKING...FAVORING
SHOWERS OVER THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.

MONDAY WILL ALSO BE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS HELD IN THE LOWER 70S
NORTH...WITH THE HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES...TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHWEST.
THE INSTABILITY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AND AS A RESULT THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST STORM PARAMETERS
DO NOT FAVOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...
POSSIBLY SEVERE...FOLLOWED BY A PATTERN CHANGE CHARACTERIZED BY
COOLER AND ACTIVE WEATHER.

BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE
LOCATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN THE I-94 AND HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDORS...A COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OCCLUDING
INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL...DECREASING TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
CONVECTIVE FORECAST ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE SURGING COLD FRONT.
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO PERHAPS THE LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST
ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. CAPE AND SHEAR
VALUES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION...HOWEVER...CAPPING WILL
BE STRONG AND LIKELY INHIBIT SURFACE BASED STORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION APPEARS MORE LIKELY
DURING THE EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL AND FRONTAL FORCING COUPLE.
ELSEWHERE...ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING MUCH OF THE DAY NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
MAXIMIZED...WITH HAIL BEING A THREAT ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A DRY SLOT LOOKS TO OVERTAKE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HOWEVER...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE COLD CORE
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW. THEREAFTER...A BROAD WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH IS FORECAST LATE NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR AT LEAST
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY
LATE NEXT WEEK RESULTING FROM DIFFICULTLY IN HANDLING THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS CLOSED LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH HIGH BASED
CUMULUS FIELDS BETWEEN 7-10 KFT THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA AFTER 10 UTC TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
IN NATURE...THEREFORE...CODED AS VCSH FOR NOW AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
AS TO POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM....AYD
AVIATION...AYD

000
FXUS63 KBIS 201801
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
101 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A CUMULUS FIELD WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THAT WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA AFTER 10 UTC TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
IN NATURE...THEREFORE...CODED AS VCSH FOR NOW AS UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS TO POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPM
AVIATION...AYD

000
FXUS63 KFGF 201528 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1028 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST FORECAST
AREA AND WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 18 UTC.
REMAINING SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER WAVE. CLOUD COVER HAS
BEEN A BIT SLOW TO EXIT NORTHWEST MN...SO INCREASED SKY GRIDS A
BIT THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECT INCREASING SUN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
BUT WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FORECAST HIGHS...AFTERNOON THERMAL CUMULUS IN THE
7000 TO 9000 FT LAYER ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK...
EXCEPT FOR AREAS STILL UNDER CLOUD COVER...SO ADJUSTED AFTERNOON
HIGHS DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES FROM BEMIDJI TO PARK RAPIDS TO
WADENA. OVERALL...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH A FEW SPOTS
APPROACHING 70 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND.

&&

.AVIATION...

THERE WAS A BIT OF MORNING FOG RIGHT ALONG THE CLEARING LINE WHICH
AFFECTED THE KGFK/KRDR/KHCO AREAS FOR AN HOUR RIGHT AFTER SUNRISE
THIS MORNING. THIS BURNED OFF PRETTY QUICKLY SO FOG IS NO LONGER AN
ISSUE. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY EXPECT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EAST
OF THE VALLEY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGH BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOULD HAVE STEADY NORTHWEST WINDS
TODAY WHICH WILL DROP OFF AGAIN THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY NIGHT)...CHALLENGE WILL BE NEAR TERM
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND
WILL FOLLOW A BLEND FOR DETAILS. WILL USE ECMWF/NAM FOR LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AS GFS IS LIKELY TOO MOIST.

UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EXTREME SE
FA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD MOVE EAST BY 15Z. CURRENTLY...LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR COMBINED WITH WEAKENING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SE FA
ARE CREATING GUSTY WINDS 30-50 MPH. THESE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED...AND ISSUED A SPS TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY. THERE
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL AND LIKELY AFTERNOON CU
DEVELOPMENT...BUT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE TO
SCATTERED. THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SOLAR FOR MAX TEMPS INTO
THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70F ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS. RETURN FLOW BEGINS
TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN FA...WITH MIN TEMPS LIKELY UPPER 30S
EAST TO MID 40S WEST.

SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. MUCH OF MONDAY
SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS INTO THE 70S. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT AN 850MB JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING (PROPAGATING
EAST). INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK.

ON TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL
DAKOTAS BY 00Z WED. MUCH OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AND CAPPING HOLDS. STRONG FORCING
FROM APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL BE REQUIRED TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SHOWALTER INDEX OF -4C TO
-6C COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)... ODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ACTIVE 500MB SW
FLOW TO BRING POPS TO MOST PERIODS IN LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD HAVE AMPLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE
50S AND NEAR 60 AHEAD OF FROPA... INITIATING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THURSDAY WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS GFS IS A SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF IN MOVING THE VORT MAX
OVER THE FA WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE AREAL
POPS COVERAGE ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE WARM SECTOR SURGES NORTH INTO
THE FA WITH THE INCREASED RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS WAA WARRANTS
SLIGHT CHC POPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD WILL
BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND MID 70S.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

ROGERS/TG

000
FXUS63 KBIS 201505
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1005 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...BY NORTH DAKOTA STANDARDS...AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...IT
WILL BE A PLEASANT MID MAY DAY.

A WEAK WAVE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CROSSING
THE AREA ON MONDAY. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS FAVOR SHOWERS
OVER THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH 12 UTC. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH...MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

JP MARTIN

000
FXUS63 KBIS 201204
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
704 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...UPDATE WILL REMOVE FROST AND FOG MENTION AND SMOOTH
DIURNAL TRENDS.

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG IS DISSIPATING. 12Z TAFS WILL HAVE HIGH BASED CUMULUS
DECK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HW
AVIATION...HW

000
FXUS63 KFGF 200828
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
328 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY NIGHT)...CHALLENGE WILL BE NEAR TERM
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND
WILL FOLLOW A BLEND FOR DETAILS. WILL USE ECMWF/NAM FOR LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AS GFS IS LIKELY TOO MOIST.

UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EXTREME SE
FA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD MOVE EAST BY 15Z. CURRENTLY...LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR COMBINED WITH WEAKENING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SE FA
ARE CREATING GUSTY WINDS 30-50 MPH. THESE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED...AND ISSUED A SPS TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY. THERE
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL AND LIKELY AFTERNOON CU
DEVELOPMENT...BUT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE TO
SCATTERED. THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SOLAR FOR MAX TEMPS INTO
THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70F ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS. RETURN FLOW BEGINS
TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN FA...WITH MIN TEMPS LIKELY UPPER 30S
EAST TO MID 40S WEST.

SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. MUCH OF MONDAY
SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS INTO THE 70S. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT AN 850MB JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING (PROPAGATING
EAST). INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK.

ON TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL
DAKOTAS BY 00Z WED. MUCH OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AND CAPPING HOLDS. STRONG FORCING
FROM APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL BE REQUIRED TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SHOWALTER INDEX OF -4C TO
-6C COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)... ODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ACTIVE 500MB SW
FLOW TO BRING POPS TO MOST PERIODS IN LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD HAVE AMPLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE
50S AND NEAR 60 AHEAD OF FROPA... INITIATING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THURSDAY WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS GFS IS A SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF IN MOVING THE VORT MAX
OVER THE FA WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE AREAL
POPS COVERAGE ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE WARM SECTOR SURGES NORTH INTO
THE FA WITH THE INCREASED RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS WAA WARRANTS
SLIGHT CHC POPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD WILL
BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS REMAIN AT BEMIDJI...AND CLEARING TREND IS
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR...THINKING MVFR
THRU 12Z-14Z USING 06Z RUC 925-850MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY. VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGH BASED CU POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
TG/JK

000
FXUS63 KBIS 200811
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
310 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE MINIMAL. PLEASANT DAY
TODAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY WARMER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN. WENT WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF
GUIDANCE.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS THIS EARLY MORNING. UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY
CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS OF LIGHT RADAR ECHOS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MT
INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WITH CIGS AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL
DOUBT MUCH IF ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND NEAR ND SO WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. WILL ALSO LEAVE IN
PATCHY FOG SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR
ZERO OR DECREASING TOWARDS.

A FEW TEMPERATURE OBS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN ND WHERE WINDS HAVE GONE CALM AND SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR. THUS PATCHY FROST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION STILL...BUT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT IN DURATION IF IT DOES FORM.

A VERY NICE DAY IN STORE FOR TODAY AS THE SFC HIGH IS SLOW TO
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND DAYTIME HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S. DID INCREASE CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
MODELS AND BUFFER SOUNDINGS INDICATING AFTERNOON CU FORMATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST TONIGHT ALONG WITH DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS A RIDGE RIDER
S/WV ADVECTS EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA. MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS WEST
LATER THIS EVENING AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES...AND INTO CENTRAL ND
AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND WAA SHOULD KEEP NIGHTTIME
TEMPS ABOVE THE 40 DEGREE MARK.

BOTH THE GFS/NAM PAINT QPF MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS THE S/WV
ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY.
OPTED TO PUT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST. FOR
SURE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WHICH WILL IMPACT DAYTIME
HIGHS...GIVING ME WARMER TEMPS WEST WHERE MORE SUN SHOULD
OCCUR...AND COOLER EAST WHERE I EXPECT SUN IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED
BY CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT OF MID LEVEL SYSTEM FORECAST TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
SOLUTION.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BE PUSHED EAST BY FLAT EAST TO WEST EXTENSION OF GULF OF ALASKA
LOW ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. FLOW AROUND EAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH
WILL BE SOUTHWEST WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LEE TROUGHING IN RESPONSE WILL PUSH ONTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT CONVECTION LIKELY BREAKING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.

SOME DIFFERENCES APPEAR BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS BY MID WEEK BUT
BOTH MODELS HAVE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTAL COMPLEX FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MID LEVEL LOW DIPS SOUTH TO OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA AND OREGON
COASTS WITH UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARMEST ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S...OTHERWISE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
40S AND 50S.


&&

.AVIATION...

WHILE CU RULE REMAINS MOSTLY POSITIVE...TQ INDEX HAS HIGH VALUES AND
EXAMINATION OF THE BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATES LAYER OF CU DEVELOPING.
WILL CONTINUE AFTERNOON VFR CEILINGS IN ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...HW

000
FXUS63 KBIS 200625
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
125 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS THIS EARLY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT EXTENDED SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN MT. DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS
WESTERN ND SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY OF THIS MOISTURE TO REACH THE
GROUND OVER MY NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES ONCE THE WEAK WAVE MOVES EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN ND.

WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST WITH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS DECREASING. CIRRUS SHIELD FROM MN CONVECTION RESULTING
IN CLOUDY SKIES ATTM SHOULD SCATTER OUT/CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED LOWER THAN FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WEST WITH MID 30S REPORTED AT BEACH...HAZEN...HETTINGER AND
HANNOVER WHERE WIND HAVE GONE CALM. TWEAKED TEMPS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBS TRENDS...WHICH RESULTED IN THE AERIAL EXTENT OF PATCHY
FROST TO INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA
TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. ANTICIPATING SOME PATCHY
FOG AS LOW AS 2SM BR FROM THE ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
CENTRAL AND EAST FROM RECENT RAINS AND CLEARING SKIES. THIS TO
EFFECT KBIS/KJMS BETWEEN 10-15Z. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
AVIATION...WAA

000
FXUS63 KBIS 200246
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
946 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...WEAK BOUNDARY SHOWING UP IN NAM H850 WINDS/TEMPS
FORECAST TONIGHT. HRRR/RUC MODEL SHOW SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES LINGERING IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT. ADDED SOME SPRINKLES WITH THE IDEA THAT THERE WILL
ESSENTIALLY BE NO ACCUMULATION. ALSO ADDED SOME CLOUD COVER AND
RAISED TEMPERATURES 1 TO 2 DEGREES...WHICH LOWERED THE FROST
POSSIBILITY WEST.


&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA.
WEAK BOUNDARY ALOFT LIKELY THE SUPPORT FOR SOME SHOWERS IN MONTANA
THAT MAY DRIFT INTO NORTH DAKOTA NEAR WILLISTON. AT THIS TIME THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A SHOWER AT WILLISTON IS LOW...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN
TAF ALTHOUGH RADAR MAY SHOW SOME RETURNS LATER TONIGHT. STILL
ANTICIPATING SOME PATCHY FOG FROM THE ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE CENTRAL AND EAST FROM RECENT RAINS AND CLEARING SKIES. THIS TO
EFFECT KBIS/KJMS BETWEEN 10-15Z. OTHERWISE VFR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA

000
FXUS63 KFGF 200134 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
834 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE RAIN CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA
AND LOW TEMPS IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS
500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST PAST WINNIPEG AND INTO
FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO. GOOD DRYING THE 850 MB LAYER HELPING TO
SPREAD CLEARING PRETTY QUICKLY EASTWARD THRU MUCH OF ERN ND LATE
AFTN. CLEARING TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO PARTS
OF NW MN BEFORE SLOWING DOWN AS NEXT SHORT WAVE ASSOC WITH THE
MAIN 500 MB UPPER LOW NOW IN KANSAS MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND THEN TOWARD THE DULUTH AREA
AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SUN AFTN. THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE HAS AN AREA
OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS IN NW IOWA.
SPENES MESSAGE INDICATES AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND THEN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THIS PRECIP
SHIELD WILL ALIGN VERY CLOSE TO A WADENA TO FERGUS FALLS-ELBOW
LAKE LINE. DID KEEP HIGH CHC POPS FOR THIS IMMEDIATE BUT REMOVED
POPS NORTHWEST OF THAT AREA TONIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS PSBL IN FAR
SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA SUN MORNING...THEN DRY.

HRRR MODEL AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN
TRACK OF THIS NEXT RAIN AREA BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY
UPDATES LATER ON THIS EVENING.

IN CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND AREA OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LOWS
WILL DROP INTO SOME UPPER 30S...BUT FEEL ANY FROST POTENTIAL WILL
LIE A BIT WEST OF US WHERE AIRMASS IS DRIER. FOG POTENTIAL SEEMS
LIMITED ATTM AS AIRMASS MOVING IN IS PRETTY DRY.

&&
.AVIATION...
SKIES CLEARING QUITE NICELY THRU NORTHEAST ND THIS EVE...WITH
CLEARING PROGRESSING TO NEAR FARGO-CROOKSTON-HALLOCK LINE AT 01Z.
WENT WITH CLEARING INTO TVF IN THE 03Z-05Z PERIOD WITH SCT OR SKC
OVERNIGHT GFK-FAR-DVL REGIONS AS UPSTREAM CUMULUS WILL LIKELY
DISSPATE WITH SUNSET. BEMIDJI CLEARING TREND IS A BIT MORE SUSPECT
AND HELD THEN IN THE MVFR CLOUDS THRU 12Z-14Z. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO NR 5 KTS OVERNIGHT.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY CLEARED THE EASTERN FA SO THINK TEMPS WILL
BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM. WILL USE A
MODEL BLEND FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

TONIGHT...AS OF 19Z THE SFC FRONT LOOKED TO EXTEND FROM NORTH
CENTRAL MN DOWN TOWARD THE STAPLES MN AREA. THICKEST CLOUD COVER
LAGS ABOUT 50 OR SO MILES BEHIND THIS FRONT WHERE CEILINGS DROP
DOWN PRETTY LOW. TEMPS ARE STILL WARMEST IN THE FAR EAST WHERE
SOME MID 70S OCCURRED. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPS DROP OFF PRETTY
QUICKLY. IN THE LAST HALF HOUR SPC DID ISSUE A MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION ABOUT TSTM POTENTIAL EAST OF THE FRONT. SFC DEW POINTS
DID JUMP UP TO AROUND 60F ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT EXPECT
THEM TO RAPIDLY DROP OFF BEHIND THE FRONT TOO. ALOFT THERE IS
STILL GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH THE STRONGEST ENERGY STILL DOWN
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT REACHING CENTRAL MN TOWARD 12Z SUN. THIS POSITION SEEMS A
BIT FURTHER EAST THAN MODELS WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY. COULD BE MORE
SUBTLE WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT
FOR MORE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH IN THAT. THERE HAS NOT BEEN
MUCH UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT THAT HAS HELD TOGETHER VERY LONG. EITHER
WAY WILL JUST MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE EAST
TONIGHT. CLEARING TRENDS WILL ALSO BE BIG. CLEARING HAS WORKED
INTO CENTRAL ND WITH A LOT OF CELLULAR CLOUDS ON THE EDGE OF THE
CLEARING. THEREFORE IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. HOW LOW WILL TEMPS GET TONIGHT IS A
TOUGH ONE. UPSTREAM LAST NIGHT THERE WERE SOME LOW 30S. THEREFORE
UNDERCUT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE TEMPS TO GO UPPER 30S IN THE WEST.
LOTS OF THE REGION PICKED UP RAIN EARLIER TODAY SO WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS...FOG IS A QUESTION. JUST DO NOT HAVE
A GOOD FEEL AT THIS POINT SO WILL LET EVENING SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT THIS. LOW LYING AREAS MAY SEE SOME FROST UP NEAR LANGDON
BUT MAY STAY JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FROST AT BAY SO WILL NOT
MENTION THIS EITHER.

SUN-TUE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS ON
SUN WITH FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE FA. SOMEWHAT
CONCERNED WITH 500MB COLD POOL OVER NORTHWEST/NORTH FA WHICH COULD
RESULT IN AFTERNOON CUMULUS FORMATION. HIGHS WILL HINGE ON HOW
THICK THE CUMULUS GETS. LOOKS LIKE LIGHTEST WINDS AND COOLEST
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE EAST SUN NIGHT. THE 500MB COLD POOL SHIFTS
INTO OUR NORTHEAST FA ON MON SO COULD HAVE MORE AFTERNOON CLOUDS
THERE. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT ON DEPICTING SOME
AFTERNOON PCPN IN THE NORTHWEST FA BY MON AFTERNOON SO STUCK IN
SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES FOR NOW. THESE PCPN CHANCES WILL SPREAD TO
THE EAST MON NIGHT INTO TUE WHERE THE FORECAST ALREADY HAD PCPN
CHANCES. TEMPS SLOWLY WARM WITH TUE LOOKING LIKE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT-SAT)...
GFS/DGEX/ECMWF/GEM IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH MEDIUM RANGE
LONGWAVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER REMAINS
UNCERTAIN GIVEN TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES OF MESOSCALE
FEATURES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH TWO DISTINCT EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVES. THE FIRST MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO STALL SOMEWHAT ACROSS MN
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES...MODEST INSTABILITY...A
850 HPA JET AROUND 40 KTS AND 300 HPA JET PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MN. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY
WITH A NARROW BAND OF LIKELIES FROM ROSEAU TO FARGO.

THE SECOND SHORT-WAVE DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE TO BUILD AND
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NATION/S MIDSECTION. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WITH A SERIES OF IMPULSES RIDING THE RIDGE
NORTHEASTWARD. CONVECTIVE TIMING AND COVERAGE MORE UNCERTAIN...SO
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL DROP SLIGHTLY EACH DAY WITH
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL TOP
OUT IN THE IN THE 70S...COOLING INTO THE 60S BY NEXT SATURDAY.



&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
RIDDLE/GODON

000
FXUS63 KBIS 200005
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
705 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS ARE CLEARING TO THE EAST...WHILE SCATTERED
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE ARE TEMPORARILY
MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST. AS SUNSET APPROACHES THESE CLOUDS WILL
TOO DISAPPEAR...LEAVING THE REGION CLEAR. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD. EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG CENTRAL AND EAST WITH JUST A TITCH OF
FROST WEST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 35.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. SOUNDING PROFILES WEST DO NOT
SUPPORT FOG AT THIS TIME. EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG AT KBIS/KJMS WITH
A BIT LESS CHANCE AT KMOT BETWEEN 10Z-15Z. OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS
THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA

000
FXUS63 KBIS 192004
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
304 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
THE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT...CLOUDS WERE DECREASING FROM THE WEST...
AND WITH DECREASING WIND OVERNIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY
FOG...MAINLY EAST...AND PATCHY FROST...MAINLY WEST. A MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY
NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH THE COLD
FRONT SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AT MID AFTERNOON
SATURDAY. THE GREATEST PRESSURE RISES WERE OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
DRIER...LOWER DEW POINT...AIR WAS WORKING INTO NORTH DAKOTA FROM
SASKATCHEWAN...WHERE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE MID 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AS THE STORM
PULLS AWAY...AND CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET...OR
EVEN BEFORE THAT AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES...A DECREASE IN WIND SPEED SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
WITH THAT...AND WITH RECENT RAIN...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE CENTRAL
AND EAST...AND WITH THE DRIER AIR...PATCHY FROST WEST. AT THIS
POINT WE WILL NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...NOR WILL WE EXPECT
WIDESPREAD FROST.

UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY LOOK FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND
LIGHTER WINDS.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH MONTANA LATER SUNDAY. THAT
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ABOVE 40.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONVECTIVE CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND A COOL DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON MONDAY IS FORECAST TO YIELD WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO PERHAPS THE LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST WITH GOOD MIXING OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. FOR TUESDAY...THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...WHERE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE POSSIBLE. THIS PLACES A WARM FRONT
BETWEEN HIGHWAY 2 AND 200...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WITH A COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING THE
FAR WEST BY EARLY EVENING. DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
IS EXPECTED WITH MID TO UPPER 50S DEW POINTS. CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES
ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN
REGARDS TO THE CAP BREAKING FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IN THE
WARM SECTOR IS HIGH. ELSEWHERE...ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM THE
OVERNIGHT MAY CONTINUE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY
WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED...WITH LARGE HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. CONVECTIVE CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE.

THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES TO A BROAD WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD FAVOR NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR AT LEAST
LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...

AS OF 20 UTC...DRIER AIR ENTERING FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY ERODED THE CUMULUS FIELDS AT KISN AND KDIK.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS WAS LIFTING AS CUMULUS FIELDS AT KMOT...KBIS AND
KJMS INTO THE VFR RANGE....WITH CLOUD FREE SKIES LIKELY AFTER
SUNSET. FOG WILL BE A CONCERN AT KBIS AND KJMS TONIGHT AFTER 09 UTC
WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND MOIST SOILS FROM RECENT RAIN.
DRIER AIR SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG THREAT AT KISN...KDIK AND KMOT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM AND AVIATION...AYD

000
FXUS63 KFGF 191957
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
257 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY CLEARED THE EASTERN FA SO THINK TEMPS WILL
BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM. WILL USE A
MODEL BLEND FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

TONIGHT...AS OF 19Z THE SFC FRONT LOOKED TO EXTEND FROM NORTH
CENTRAL MN DOWN TOWARD THE STAPLES MN AREA. THICKEST CLOUD COVER
LAGS ABOUT 50 OR SO MILES BEHIND THIS FRONT WHERE CEILINGS DROP
DOWN PRETTY LOW. TEMPS ARE STILL WARMEST IN THE FAR EAST WHERE
SOME MID 70S OCCURRED. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPS DROP OFF PRETTY
QUICKLY. IN THE LAST HALF HOUR SPC DID ISSUE A MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION ABOUT TSTM POTENTIAL EAST OF THE FRONT. SFC DEW POINTS
DID JUMP UP TO AROUND 60F ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT EXPECT
THEM TO RAPIDLY DROP OFF BEHIND THE FRONT TOO. ALOFT THERE IS
STILL GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH THE STRONGEST ENERGY STILL DOWN
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT REACHING CENTRAL MN TOWARD 12Z SUN. THIS POSITION SEEMS A
BIT FURTHER EAST THAN MODELS WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY. COULD BE MORE
SUBTLE WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT
FOR MORE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH IN THAT. THERE HAS NOT BEEN
MUCH UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT THAT HAS HELD TOGETHER VERY LONG. EITHER
WAY WILL JUST MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE EAST
TONIGHT. CLEARING TRENDS WILL ALSO BE BIG. CLEARING HAS WORKED
INTO CENTRAL ND WITH A LOT OF CELLULAR CLOUDS ON THE EDGE OF THE
CLEARING. THEREFORE IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. HOW LOW WILL TEMPS GET TONIGHT IS A
TOUGH ONE. UPSTREAM LAST NIGHT THERE WERE SOME LOW 30S. THEREFORE
UNDERCUT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE TEMPS TO GO UPPER 30S IN THE WEST.
LOTS OF THE REGION PICKED UP RAIN EARLIER TODAY SO WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS...FOG IS A QUESTION. JUST DO NOT HAVE
A GOOD FEEL AT THIS POINT SO WILL LET EVENING SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT THIS. LOW LYING AREAS MAY SEE SOME FROST UP NEAR LANGDON
BUT MAY STAY JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FROST AT BAY SO WILL NOT
MENTION THIS EITHER.

SUN-TUE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS ON
SUN WITH FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE FA. SOMEWHAT
CONCERNED WITH 500MB COLD POOL OVER NORTHWEST/NORTH FA WHICH COULD
RESULT IN AFTERNOON CUMULUS FORMATION. HIGHS WILL HINGE ON HOW
THICK THE CUMULUS GETS. LOOKS LIKE LIGHTEST WINDS AND COOLEST
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE EAST SUN NIGHT. THE 500MB COLD POOL SHIFTS
INTO OUR NORTHEAST FA ON MON SO COULD HAVE MORE AFTERNOON CLOUDS
THERE. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT ON DEPICTING SOME
AFTERNOON PCPN IN THE NORTHWEST FA BY MON AFTERNOON SO STUCK IN
SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES FOR NOW. THESE PCPN CHANCES WILL SPREAD TO
THE EAST MON NIGHT INTO TUE WHERE THE FORECAST ALREADY HAD PCPN
CHANCES. TEMPS SLOWLY WARM WITH TUE LOOKING LIKE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT-SAT)...
GFS/DGEX/ECMWF/GEM IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH MEDIUM RANGE
LONGWAVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER REMAINS
UNCERTAIN GIVEN TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES OF MESOSCALE
FEATURES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH TWO DISTINCT EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVES. THE FIRST MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO STALL SOMEWHAT ACROSS MN
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES...MODEST INSTABILITY...A
850 HPA JET AROUND 40 KTS AND 300 HPA JET PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MN. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY
WITH A NARROW BAND OF LIKELIES FROM ROSEAU TO FARGO.

THE SECOND SHORT-WAVE DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE TO BUILD AND
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NATION/S MIDSECTION. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WITH A SERIES OF IMPULSES RIDING THE RIDGE
NORTHEASTWARD. CONVECTIVE TIMING AND COVERAGE MORE UNCERTAIN...SO
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL DROP SLIGHTLY EACH DAY WITH
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL TOP
OUT IN THE IN THE 70S...COOLING INTO THE 60S BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL MN WITH MAINLY MVFR
CEILINGS...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND IN ITS
WAKE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBJI AND PERHAPS KTVF...CEILINGS SHOULD
LIFT AND DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEPENDING ON
EXTENT OF CLEARING AND STRENGTH OF WIND...SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN 18 UTC TAF ISSUANCE.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/S FORWARD MOTION IS A BIT SLOWER THAN MOST
MODELS INDICATE...SO TIMING OF IMPROVED CEILINGS MAY NEED TO BE
DELAYED IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

GODON/ROGERS

000
FXUS63 KBIS 191807
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
107 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN POCKET CONTINUES FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF BISMARCK TO
NEAR CARRINGTON...NORTH OF JAMESTOWN. THE AREA WAS DECREASING IN
COVERAGE AS IT PULLS NORTHEAST.

CLOUDS WERE BREAKING OVER THE WEST...AND THAT LINE WILL BE THROUGH
BISMARCK AND MINOT BY 2 TO 3 PM.

BREEZY WIND WEST WILL SPREAD EAST AS THE AREA BREAKS INTO SOME
SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO EAST AS
AGAIN...THAT AREA WILL NOT SEE ANY SUNSHINE UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY...JAMESTOWN TO OAKES.

ADDED PATCHY FOG EAST AND PATCHY FROST WEST FOR TONIGHT DUE TO THE
RECENT RAINS AND WIND DECREASING WITH SUNSET.

&&

.AVIATION...
AS OF 1730 UTC...RAIN HAS ENDED AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KJMS...WHERE
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 20 UTC.

ELSEWHERE...CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT AS CUMULUS DECKS WITH
CONDITIONS TRENDING TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 18-20 UTC.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT WITH SUNSET.

FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AT KBIS AND KJMS TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND WET SOILS FROM RECENT RAIN. DRIER AIR ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT THE FOG
THREAT AT KISN...KDIK AND KMOT TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPM
AVIATION...AYD

000
FXUS63 KBIS 191508
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1008 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE EDITED THE GRIDDED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS...TO DECREASE POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND DELAY THE
CLEARING LINE PUSHING SLOWER EAST THAN EXPECTED. ALL THUNDER WAS
REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST BASED ON
THE ABOVE STATED TRENDS...AND THE EXPECTATION THAT ANY SUNSHINE
THERE WILL BE LIMITED TO VERY LATE IN THE DAY.

NAM MODEL GUIDANCE IS WELL IN LINE WITH REALITY THROUGH THE 7 AM
TO 10 AM TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...
KBIS CONTINUES IFR CEILINGS AT 15Z WHILE SITES TO THE WEST
HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR...AND THE CENTRAL AND EAST TO MVFR WITH LIGHT
RAIN CONTINUING THERE. TS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE TAFS.

LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHILE CLOUDS
BEGIN BREAKING UP AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE WEST.

EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS...GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

JP MARTIN

000
FXUS63 KFGF 191454 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
954 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND
TEMPS. PCPN CHANCES LOOKING PRETTY MEAGER TODAY. PRETTY EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER OVER THE ENTIRE REGION RIGHT NOW WITH ANY CLEARING
WAY BACK OVER EASTERN MT. UNLESS SOME CLEARING OR DECREASE IN
CLOUDS CAN SOMEHOW MANAGE TO WORK IN TEMPS ARE NOT GOING TO RISE
MUCH TODAY. LOOKING UPSTREAM THIS MORNING THERE WERE SOME LOW 30
TEMPS IN EASTERN MT AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. STEADY COLD
ADVECTION TODAY WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP IT
CHILLY...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE RECORD HIGHS OF YESTERDAY. WENT
AHEAD AND CUT BACK TEMPS MORE FOR TODAY AND BUMPED UP CLOUD
AMOUNTS A BIT MORE TOO. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FA THIS MORNING THEN NEW MODELS SHOW VERY
LITTLE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THEREFORE DECREASED PCPN CHANCES A
BIT FOR THE AFTERNOON TOO.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRETTY LOW CEILINGS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KBJI. KBJI SHOULD ALSO SEE LOWERING CEILINGS THRU THE
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ALSO
LOOK TO CONTINUE THRU THE DAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CEILINGS AND
SEE HOW FAST THEY CAN RISE LATER IN THE DAY. PCPN AT THE TAF
SITES LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL AFTER THE MORNING WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF KBJI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDER
CHANCES INTO SUNDAY. WILL USE A BLEND OF 00Z MODELS.

STRONG 850MB JET CAUSING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN FA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO DISTINCT UPPER WAVES...ONE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND THE OTHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. BOTH THESE WAVES HAVE ASSOCIATED PRECIP THAT WILL
AFFECT THE WESTERN FA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. 850MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS CAUSING SCATTERED THUNDER FROM ROSEAU TO COOPERSTOWN...AND
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS INITIATED STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE ARE A LOT OF FORCING
MECHANISMS IN PLAY. 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL BEGIN PROPAGATING EASTWARD AFTER 12Z. WENT WITH HIGHEST POPS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING...SHIFTING THESE
HIGHER POPS EAST OF THE VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT ACTIVITY
IS WELL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
HIGHEST INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONGER
STORM WILL BE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE SOUTH DAKOTA WAVE
APPROACHES...AND THERE IS ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. MAIN UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE SW CONUS SWINGS NORTH BY
TONIGHT...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO THE SE FA TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD
LEAD TO DRY WEATHER.

WINDS TODAY COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. MIXING LAYER IS
SHALLOW...UP TO 925MB...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SPEEDS JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
GENERAL SYNOPSIS OF THE PROGGED 500MB PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACHING 500MB TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASE. SOUTHERLY SFC
WINDS WILL INCREASE TEMPS AND MOISTURE TO FUEL ANY WELL TIMED
SHORT WAVE. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE FAVORABLE SW FLOW HARD TO
NAIL DOWN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...THAT SAID BEST FORCING SHOULD
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS MAIN UPPER VORT MAX AND COLD FRONT MOVE THRU. TEMPS FOR
THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

GODON

000
FXUS63 KBIS 191144
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
644 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...OTHERWISE RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION. LOWERED POPS SOME IN THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES AND ADJUSTED DIURNAL TRENDS.

.AVIATION...
LOW IFR CEILING AT KMOT WILL BE INTERMITTENT FOR A FEW HOURS WITH
TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS AT REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. LIFTING AND
CLEARING TREND BEGINNING WEST AND WITH LOWER CONDITIONS LINGERING
LONGEST NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HW
AVIATION...HW

000
FXUS63 KBIS 190904
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
404 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. USED A BLEND OF
THE NEAR TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
A GENERAL BLEND AFTERWARDS.

CURRENTLY...STRONG S/WV IMPULSE LIFTING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS SATURDAY MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE NOW THROUGH
18Z. ANOTHER IMPULSE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
GENERATING ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE INCLUDED A PRE-FIRST PERIOD IN THE ZFP
TO CAPTURE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY.

AS THE TWO S/WV`S CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST LATER THIS
MORNING...AND AS DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST...SHOULD SEE MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION END BY 18Z. WILL
BE A TAD BREEZY THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOCAL REGION DUE TO THE PRESSURE RISES AHEAD OF THE HIGH.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE STATE
AS WELL...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION TONIGHT...LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. COMBINED
WITH SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE WEST...WILL SEE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
DROP INTO THE 30S HERE LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FROST
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST AND WILL LET THE
DAY CREW EVALUATE WHETHER FROST HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.

A VERY NICE DAY IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH IS SLOW TO
PUSH EAST. SHOULD SEE SUNNY SKIES...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND
DAYTIME HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT OF MID LEVEL SYSTEM FORECAST TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
SOLUTION.

WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS. NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE WILL EXTENDED FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN
RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL TROUGH OFF SHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS TROUGH SLOWLY EDGES EAST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MILD DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL BE
INTERRUPTED MORE FREQUENTLY BY PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND MID
LEVEL LOW AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...

CONVECTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE TAF PERIODS. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AND VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE TAFS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...HW

000
FXUS63 KFGF 190819
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
319 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDER
CHANCES INTO SUNDAY. WILL USE A BLEND OF 00Z MODELS.

STRONG 850MB JET CAUSING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN FA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO DISTINCT UPPER WAVES...ONE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND THE OTHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. BOTH THESE WAVES HAVE ASSOCIATED PRECIP THAT WILL
AFFECT THE WESTERN FA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. 850MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS CAUSING SCATTERED THUNDER FROM ROSEAU TO COOPERSTOWN...AND
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS INITIATED STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE ARE A LOT OF FORCING
MECHANISMS IN PLAY. 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL BEGIN PROPAGATING EASTWARD AFTER 12Z. WENT WITH HIGHEST POPS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING...SHIFTING THESE
HIGHER POPS EAST OF THE VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT ACTIVITY
IS WELL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
HIGHEST INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONGER
STORM WILL BE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE SOUTH DAKOTA WAVE
APPROACHES...AND THERE IS ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. MAIN UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE SW CONUS SWINGS NORTH BY
TONIGHT...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO THE SE FA TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD
LEAD TO DRY WEATHER.

WINDS TODAY COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. MIXING LAYER IS
SHALLOW...UP TO 925MB...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SPEEDS JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
GENERAL SYNOPSIS OF THE PROGGED 500MB PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACHING 500MB TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASE. SOUTHERLY SFC
WINDS WILL INCREASE TEMPS AND MOISTURE TO FUEL ANY WELL TIMED
SHORT WAVE. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE FAVORABLE SW FLOW HARD TO
NAIL DOWN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...THAT SAID BEST FORCING SHOULD
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS MAIN UPPER VORT MAX AND COLD FRONT MOVE THRU. TEMPS FOR
THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL
INVADE THE REGION IN NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE LOW
CIGS ARE NOW IN KDVL AND KGFK...AND WILL BE INTO KFAR AND KTVF BY
NOON IF NOT SOONER. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ALSO EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER LIKELY THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.
EAST OF THE VALLEY (KBJI)...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALTHOUGH CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
TG/JK