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000
FXUS63 KFGF 070352
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
952 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP CONCENTRATED JUST EAST
OF THE RED RIVER FROM CROOKSTON DOWN TO MAHNOMAN. RETURNS FURTHER
SOUTH OVER DETROIT LAKES AND PARK RAPIDS HAVE PRODUCED NOTHING
REACHING THE GROUND...AND NO REPORTS FURTHER NORTH EITHER. HAVE
LIKELY POPS JUST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO
CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THINK THAT MOST OF WHAT WE WILL GET WILL BE SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES...AND CHANCES ARE NOT TOO HIGH FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP. WINDS ARE STARTING TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND BECOMING RATHER BREEZY. ROLLA
BRIEFLY WENT WIND ADVISORY BUT THINK IT WAS MAINLY FROM THE
INITIAL SURGE COMING DOWN OFF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS BREEZY WINDS AROUND 20 KTS OVER THE WEST AND THIS
CONTINUES TO SEEM REASONABLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

LINE OF RADAR RETURNS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT REACHING THE GROUND. CONTINUED TO
KEEP POPS GOING BUT OVERALL THINK THE EVENT WILL MAINLY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES WITH NOT A HUGE CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING ACCUMULATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE WEAK WAVES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS.
TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES...BUT OVERALL
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES EXPECTED.

THE FIRST SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS...IS APPROACHING.
THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PLACE THE STRONGEST FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO NW MN THIS EVENING (PLACED THE
HIGHEST POPS HERE). THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...AND SNOWFALL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS SLIGHTLY WEAKER...WITH A SIMILAR TRACK
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS FOR AREAS
THAT APPEAR DARKER ON VISIBLE IMAGERY (GIVEN TODAYS MAX TEMPS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SUNDAY-MONDAY...UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL WITH STRONGER SYSTEMS
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS WILL
ADVECT INTO THE AREA...AND WITH LOW LEVEL SW/W FLOW EXPECTED
ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS NEAR OR INTO THE 40S ON SUNDAY...AND MID 40S
TO LOW 50S ON MONDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THESE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE ISOLATED AREAS OF DEEPER SNOWPACK
(LANGDON AREA...BAUDETTE AREA). CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
FORMATION...BUT IT IS STILL A POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...EXPECTED PATTERN STILL ON TARGET FOR THIS PERIOD
WITH FLATTENING WEST/NW FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH THE ECMWF STILL LOOKING A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THE GFS. UPPER JET REMAINS NORTH THE FA KEEPING ANY WEATHER
SYSTEMS THERE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

LIGHT SNOW AT KDVL WAS SHORT LIVED...AND THINK THAT ANY SNOW OR
RAIN REACHING THE GROUND FURTHER EAST WILL BE SIMILAR. INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP AS THE PRECIP SHOULD BE TOO SCATTERED AND BRIEF
TO INCLUDE IN THE PREVAILING GROUP. THE CIGS ARE MOSTLY VFR
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS HAVE BRIEFLY GONE DOWN TO MVFR. BETTER
CHANCES OF MVFR WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND COLDER AIR STARTS COMING DOWN. EVEN THEN THE MVFR
CIGS UPSTREAM ARE NOT SOLID AND THERE ARE A LOT OF SUCKER HOLES.
WILL KEEP TAFS MOSTLY VFR CIGS...WITH A BREAK IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SHIFT
AROUND BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...JR





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000
FXUS63 KBIS 070332
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
932 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHERLY WITH ONLY A FEW ECHOS
ON RADAR OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE CLOUD BASES ARE QUITE HIGH
AND A FAIR TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS NOTED SO DOUBTFUL THAT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES ARE HITTING THE GROUND.
THEREFORE...HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST
LOOKED GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT  604 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

RADAR RETURNS OVER THE AREA HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE WITH FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THIS...HAVE
SPREAD LOW POPS FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
IN THIS SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE. THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARE
DEEPLY EMBEDDED IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH SEVERAL WEAK
PERTURBATIONS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE IN
SASKATCHEWAN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG ONE OF THESE SHORT WAVES AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
TEPID TO GENERATE MUCH PRECIP WITH THIS AND SO FAR TODAY HAVE SEEN
NO SURFACE REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH RADARS HAVE SHOWN
ABUNDANT LIGHT RETURNS. THE NAM/GFS MODELS GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF A 100+ KT  JET TONIGHT THAT LEAVES
MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA DRY. SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PRECIP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...THE MODELS GENERATED PRECIP AGAIN FOLLOWING THE JET
LOCATION. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH CENTRAL. AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH WITH THE COOL AIR ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES
OF RAIN OR SNOW OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH MAINLY
TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES
FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA.

SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI...WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS
GONE/VIRTUALLY GONE...AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE
30S AND WE SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY...AND 50-60 THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COTEAU...STILL
HAS A SMALL SNOW PACK. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S. MAX TEMPERATURES OF 35 TO 40 CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH
40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND 35 TO 45 THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE AREA BRINGING MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH
BY AFTERNOON...WHILE REMAINING AREAS REMAIN MVFR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 070332
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
932 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHERLY WITH ONLY A FEW ECHOS
ON RADAR OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE CLOUD BASES ARE QUITE HIGH
AND A FAIR TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS NOTED SO DOUBTFUL THAT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES ARE HITTING THE GROUND.
THEREFORE...HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST
LOOKED GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT  604 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

RADAR RETURNS OVER THE AREA HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE WITH FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THIS...HAVE
SPREAD LOW POPS FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
IN THIS SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE. THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARE
DEEPLY EMBEDDED IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH SEVERAL WEAK
PERTURBATIONS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE IN
SASKATCHEWAN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG ONE OF THESE SHORT WAVES AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
TEPID TO GENERATE MUCH PRECIP WITH THIS AND SO FAR TODAY HAVE SEEN
NO SURFACE REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH RADARS HAVE SHOWN
ABUNDANT LIGHT RETURNS. THE NAM/GFS MODELS GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF A 100+ KT  JET TONIGHT THAT LEAVES
MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA DRY. SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PRECIP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...THE MODELS GENERATED PRECIP AGAIN FOLLOWING THE JET
LOCATION. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH CENTRAL. AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH WITH THE COOL AIR ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES
OF RAIN OR SNOW OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH MAINLY
TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES
FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA.

SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI...WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS
GONE/VIRTUALLY GONE...AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE
30S AND WE SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY...AND 50-60 THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COTEAU...STILL
HAS A SMALL SNOW PACK. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S. MAX TEMPERATURES OF 35 TO 40 CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH
40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND 35 TO 45 THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE AREA BRINGING MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH
BY AFTERNOON...WHILE REMAINING AREAS REMAIN MVFR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 070055
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
655 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

LINE OF RADAR RETURNS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT REACHING THE GROUND. CONTINUED TO
KEEP POPS GOING BUT OVERALL THINK THE EVENT WILL MAINLY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES WITH NOT A HUGE CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING ACCUMULATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE WEAK WAVES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS.
TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES...BUT OVERALL
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES EXPECTED.

THE FIRST SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS...IS APPROACHING.
THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PLACE THE STRONGEST FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO NW MN THIS EVENING (PLACED THE
HIGHEST POPS HERE). THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...AND SNOWFALL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS SLIGHTLY WEAKER...WITH A SIMILAR TRACK
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS FOR AREAS
THAT APPEAR DARKER ON VISIBLE IMAGERY (GIVEN TODAYS MAX TEMPS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SUNDAY-MONDAY...UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL WITH STRONGER SYSTEMS
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS WILL
ADVECT INTO THE AREA...AND WITH LOW LEVEL SW/W FLOW EXPECTED
ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS NEAR OR INTO THE 40S ON SUNDAY...AND MID 40S
TO LOW 50S ON MONDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THESE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE ISOLATED AREAS OF DEEPER SNOWPACK
(LANGDON AREA...BAUDETTE AREA). CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
FORMATION...BUT IT IS STILL A POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...EXPECTED PATTERN STILL ON TARGET FOR THIS PERIOD
WITH FLATTENING WEST/NW FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH THE ECMWF STILL LOOKING A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THE GFS. UPPER JET REMAINS NORTH THE FA KEEPING ANY WEATHER
SYSTEMS THERE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

LIGHT SNOW AT KDVL WAS SHORT LIVED...AND THINK THAT ANY SNOW OR
RAIN REACHING THE GROUND FURTHER EAST WILL BE SIMILAR. INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP AS THE PRECIP SHOULD BE TOO SCATTERED AND BRIEF
TO INCLUDE IN THE PREVAILING GROUP. THE CIGS ARE MOSTLY VFR
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS HAVE BRIEFLY GONE DOWN TO MVFR. BETTER
CHANCES OF MVFR WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND COLDER AIR STARTS COMING DOWN. EVEN THEN THE MVFR
CIGS UPSTREAM ARE NOT SOLID AND THERE ARE A LOT OF SUCKER HOLES.
WILL KEEP TAFS MOSTLY VFR CIGS...WITH A BREAK IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SHIFT
AROUND BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 070055
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
655 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

LINE OF RADAR RETURNS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT REACHING THE GROUND. CONTINUED TO
KEEP POPS GOING BUT OVERALL THINK THE EVENT WILL MAINLY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES WITH NOT A HUGE CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING ACCUMULATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE WEAK WAVES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS.
TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES...BUT OVERALL
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES EXPECTED.

THE FIRST SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS...IS APPROACHING.
THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PLACE THE STRONGEST FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO NW MN THIS EVENING (PLACED THE
HIGHEST POPS HERE). THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...AND SNOWFALL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS SLIGHTLY WEAKER...WITH A SIMILAR TRACK
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS FOR AREAS
THAT APPEAR DARKER ON VISIBLE IMAGERY (GIVEN TODAYS MAX TEMPS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SUNDAY-MONDAY...UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL WITH STRONGER SYSTEMS
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS WILL
ADVECT INTO THE AREA...AND WITH LOW LEVEL SW/W FLOW EXPECTED
ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS NEAR OR INTO THE 40S ON SUNDAY...AND MID 40S
TO LOW 50S ON MONDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THESE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE ISOLATED AREAS OF DEEPER SNOWPACK
(LANGDON AREA...BAUDETTE AREA). CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
FORMATION...BUT IT IS STILL A POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...EXPECTED PATTERN STILL ON TARGET FOR THIS PERIOD
WITH FLATTENING WEST/NW FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH THE ECMWF STILL LOOKING A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THE GFS. UPPER JET REMAINS NORTH THE FA KEEPING ANY WEATHER
SYSTEMS THERE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

LIGHT SNOW AT KDVL WAS SHORT LIVED...AND THINK THAT ANY SNOW OR
RAIN REACHING THE GROUND FURTHER EAST WILL BE SIMILAR. INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP AS THE PRECIP SHOULD BE TOO SCATTERED AND BRIEF
TO INCLUDE IN THE PREVAILING GROUP. THE CIGS ARE MOSTLY VFR
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS HAVE BRIEFLY GONE DOWN TO MVFR. BETTER
CHANCES OF MVFR WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND COLDER AIR STARTS COMING DOWN. EVEN THEN THE MVFR
CIGS UPSTREAM ARE NOT SOLID AND THERE ARE A LOT OF SUCKER HOLES.
WILL KEEP TAFS MOSTLY VFR CIGS...WITH A BREAK IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SHIFT
AROUND BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 070055
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
655 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

LINE OF RADAR RETURNS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT REACHING THE GROUND. CONTINUED TO
KEEP POPS GOING BUT OVERALL THINK THE EVENT WILL MAINLY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES WITH NOT A HUGE CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING ACCUMULATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE WEAK WAVES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS.
TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES...BUT OVERALL
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES EXPECTED.

THE FIRST SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS...IS APPROACHING.
THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PLACE THE STRONGEST FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO NW MN THIS EVENING (PLACED THE
HIGHEST POPS HERE). THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...AND SNOWFALL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS SLIGHTLY WEAKER...WITH A SIMILAR TRACK
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS FOR AREAS
THAT APPEAR DARKER ON VISIBLE IMAGERY (GIVEN TODAYS MAX TEMPS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SUNDAY-MONDAY...UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL WITH STRONGER SYSTEMS
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS WILL
ADVECT INTO THE AREA...AND WITH LOW LEVEL SW/W FLOW EXPECTED
ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS NEAR OR INTO THE 40S ON SUNDAY...AND MID 40S
TO LOW 50S ON MONDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THESE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE ISOLATED AREAS OF DEEPER SNOWPACK
(LANGDON AREA...BAUDETTE AREA). CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
FORMATION...BUT IT IS STILL A POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...EXPECTED PATTERN STILL ON TARGET FOR THIS PERIOD
WITH FLATTENING WEST/NW FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH THE ECMWF STILL LOOKING A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THE GFS. UPPER JET REMAINS NORTH THE FA KEEPING ANY WEATHER
SYSTEMS THERE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

LIGHT SNOW AT KDVL WAS SHORT LIVED...AND THINK THAT ANY SNOW OR
RAIN REACHING THE GROUND FURTHER EAST WILL BE SIMILAR. INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP AS THE PRECIP SHOULD BE TOO SCATTERED AND BRIEF
TO INCLUDE IN THE PREVAILING GROUP. THE CIGS ARE MOSTLY VFR
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS HAVE BRIEFLY GONE DOWN TO MVFR. BETTER
CHANCES OF MVFR WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND COLDER AIR STARTS COMING DOWN. EVEN THEN THE MVFR
CIGS UPSTREAM ARE NOT SOLID AND THERE ARE A LOT OF SUCKER HOLES.
WILL KEEP TAFS MOSTLY VFR CIGS...WITH A BREAK IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SHIFT
AROUND BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 070055
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
655 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

LINE OF RADAR RETURNS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT REACHING THE GROUND. CONTINUED TO
KEEP POPS GOING BUT OVERALL THINK THE EVENT WILL MAINLY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES WITH NOT A HUGE CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING ACCUMULATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE WEAK WAVES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS.
TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES...BUT OVERALL
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES EXPECTED.

THE FIRST SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS...IS APPROACHING.
THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PLACE THE STRONGEST FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO NW MN THIS EVENING (PLACED THE
HIGHEST POPS HERE). THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...AND SNOWFALL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS SLIGHTLY WEAKER...WITH A SIMILAR TRACK
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS FOR AREAS
THAT APPEAR DARKER ON VISIBLE IMAGERY (GIVEN TODAYS MAX TEMPS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SUNDAY-MONDAY...UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL WITH STRONGER SYSTEMS
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS WILL
ADVECT INTO THE AREA...AND WITH LOW LEVEL SW/W FLOW EXPECTED
ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS NEAR OR INTO THE 40S ON SUNDAY...AND MID 40S
TO LOW 50S ON MONDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THESE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE ISOLATED AREAS OF DEEPER SNOWPACK
(LANGDON AREA...BAUDETTE AREA). CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
FORMATION...BUT IT IS STILL A POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...EXPECTED PATTERN STILL ON TARGET FOR THIS PERIOD
WITH FLATTENING WEST/NW FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH THE ECMWF STILL LOOKING A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THE GFS. UPPER JET REMAINS NORTH THE FA KEEPING ANY WEATHER
SYSTEMS THERE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

LIGHT SNOW AT KDVL WAS SHORT LIVED...AND THINK THAT ANY SNOW OR
RAIN REACHING THE GROUND FURTHER EAST WILL BE SIMILAR. INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP AS THE PRECIP SHOULD BE TOO SCATTERED AND BRIEF
TO INCLUDE IN THE PREVAILING GROUP. THE CIGS ARE MOSTLY VFR
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS HAVE BRIEFLY GONE DOWN TO MVFR. BETTER
CHANCES OF MVFR WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND COLDER AIR STARTS COMING DOWN. EVEN THEN THE MVFR
CIGS UPSTREAM ARE NOT SOLID AND THERE ARE A LOT OF SUCKER HOLES.
WILL KEEP TAFS MOSTLY VFR CIGS...WITH A BREAK IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SHIFT
AROUND BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KBIS 070021
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
621 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT  604 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

RADAR RETURNS OVER THE AREA HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE WITH FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THIS...HAVE
SPREAD LOW POPS FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
IN THIS SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE. THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARE
DEEPLY EMBEDDED IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH SEVERAL WEAK
PERTURBATIONS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE IN
SASKATCHEWAN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG ONE OF THESE SHORT WAVES AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
TEPID TO GENERATE MUCH PRECIP WITH THIS AND SO FAR TODAY HAVE SEEN
NO SURFACE REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH RADARS HAVE SHOWN
ABUNDANT LIGHT RETURNS. THE NAM/GFS MODELS GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF A 100+ KT  JET TONIGHT THAT LEAVES
MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA DRY. SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PRECIP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...THE MODELS GENERATED PRECIP AGAIN FOLLOWING THE JET
LOCATION. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH CENTRAL. AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH WITH THE COOL AIR ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES
OF RAIN OR SNOW OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH MAINLY
TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES
FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA.

SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI...WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS
GONE/VIRTUALLY GONE...AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE
30S AND WE SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY...AND 50-60 THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COTEAU...STILL
HAS A SMALL SNOW PACK. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S. MAX TEMPERATURES OF 35 TO 40 CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH
40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND 35 TO 45 THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE AREA BRINGING MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH
BY AFTERNOON...WHILE REMAINING AREAS REMAIN MVFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 070021
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
621 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT  604 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

RADAR RETURNS OVER THE AREA HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE WITH FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THIS...HAVE
SPREAD LOW POPS FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
IN THIS SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE. THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARE
DEEPLY EMBEDDED IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH SEVERAL WEAK
PERTURBATIONS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE IN
SASKATCHEWAN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG ONE OF THESE SHORT WAVES AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
TEPID TO GENERATE MUCH PRECIP WITH THIS AND SO FAR TODAY HAVE SEEN
NO SURFACE REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH RADARS HAVE SHOWN
ABUNDANT LIGHT RETURNS. THE NAM/GFS MODELS GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF A 100+ KT  JET TONIGHT THAT LEAVES
MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA DRY. SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PRECIP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...THE MODELS GENERATED PRECIP AGAIN FOLLOWING THE JET
LOCATION. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH CENTRAL. AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH WITH THE COOL AIR ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES
OF RAIN OR SNOW OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH MAINLY
TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES
FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA.

SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI...WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS
GONE/VIRTUALLY GONE...AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE
30S AND WE SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY...AND 50-60 THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COTEAU...STILL
HAS A SMALL SNOW PACK. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S. MAX TEMPERATURES OF 35 TO 40 CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH
40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND 35 TO 45 THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE AREA BRINGING MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH
BY AFTERNOON...WHILE REMAINING AREAS REMAIN MVFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 070021
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
621 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT  604 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

RADAR RETURNS OVER THE AREA HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE WITH FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THIS...HAVE
SPREAD LOW POPS FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
IN THIS SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE. THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARE
DEEPLY EMBEDDED IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH SEVERAL WEAK
PERTURBATIONS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE IN
SASKATCHEWAN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG ONE OF THESE SHORT WAVES AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
TEPID TO GENERATE MUCH PRECIP WITH THIS AND SO FAR TODAY HAVE SEEN
NO SURFACE REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH RADARS HAVE SHOWN
ABUNDANT LIGHT RETURNS. THE NAM/GFS MODELS GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF A 100+ KT  JET TONIGHT THAT LEAVES
MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA DRY. SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PRECIP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...THE MODELS GENERATED PRECIP AGAIN FOLLOWING THE JET
LOCATION. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH CENTRAL. AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH WITH THE COOL AIR ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES
OF RAIN OR SNOW OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH MAINLY
TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES
FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA.

SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI...WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS
GONE/VIRTUALLY GONE...AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE
30S AND WE SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY...AND 50-60 THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COTEAU...STILL
HAS A SMALL SNOW PACK. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S. MAX TEMPERATURES OF 35 TO 40 CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH
40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND 35 TO 45 THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE AREA BRINGING MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH
BY AFTERNOON...WHILE REMAINING AREAS REMAIN MVFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 070021
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
621 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT  604 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

RADAR RETURNS OVER THE AREA HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE WITH FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THIS...HAVE
SPREAD LOW POPS FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
IN THIS SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE. THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARE
DEEPLY EMBEDDED IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH SEVERAL WEAK
PERTURBATIONS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE IN
SASKATCHEWAN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG ONE OF THESE SHORT WAVES AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
TEPID TO GENERATE MUCH PRECIP WITH THIS AND SO FAR TODAY HAVE SEEN
NO SURFACE REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH RADARS HAVE SHOWN
ABUNDANT LIGHT RETURNS. THE NAM/GFS MODELS GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF A 100+ KT  JET TONIGHT THAT LEAVES
MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA DRY. SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PRECIP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...THE MODELS GENERATED PRECIP AGAIN FOLLOWING THE JET
LOCATION. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH CENTRAL. AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH WITH THE COOL AIR ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES
OF RAIN OR SNOW OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH MAINLY
TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES
FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA.

SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI...WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS
GONE/VIRTUALLY GONE...AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE
30S AND WE SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY...AND 50-60 THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COTEAU...STILL
HAS A SMALL SNOW PACK. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S. MAX TEMPERATURES OF 35 TO 40 CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH
40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND 35 TO 45 THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE AREA BRINGING MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH
BY AFTERNOON...WHILE REMAINING AREAS REMAIN MVFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 062056
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
256 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE WEAK WAVES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS.
TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES...BUT OVERALL
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES EXPECTED.

THE FIRST SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS...IS APPROACHING.
THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PLACE THE STRONGEST FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO NW MN THIS EVENING (PLACED THE
HIGHEST POPS HERE). THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...AND SNOWFALL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS SLIGHTLY WEAKER...WITH A SIMILAR TRACK
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS FOR AREAS
THAT APPEAR DARKER ON VISIBLE IMAGERY (GIVEN TODAYS MAX TEMPS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SUNDAY-MONDAY...UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL WITH STRONGER SYSTEMS
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS WILL
ADVECT INTO THE AREA...AND WITH LOW LEVEL SW/W FLOW EXPECTED
ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS NEAR OR INTO THE 40S ON SUNDAY...AND MID 40S
TO LOW 50S ON MONDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THESE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE ISOLATED AREAS OF DEEPER SNOWPACK
(LANGDON AREA...BAUDETTE AREA). CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
FORMATION...BUT IT IS STILL A POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...EXPECTED PATTERN STILL ON TARGET FOR THIS PERIOD
WITH FLATTENING WEST/NW FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH THE ECMWF STILL LOOKING A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THE GFS. UPPER JET REMAINS NORTH THE FA KEEPING ANY WEATHER
SYSTEMS THERE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

STILL DEALING WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS UPSTREAM WITH
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS SO THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD STAY VFR. BY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE
WITH LIGHT SNOW/LOWER CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT KEPT THINGS VFR AS NOT A
LOT OF LOWER CONDITIONS FOUND UPSTREAM. AFTER THE LIGHT SNOW MOVES
THROUGH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE. THEN TOWARD SAT MORNING THE
WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...GODON





000
FXUS63 KFGF 062056
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
256 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE WEAK WAVES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS.
TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES...BUT OVERALL
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES EXPECTED.

THE FIRST SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS...IS APPROACHING.
THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PLACE THE STRONGEST FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO NW MN THIS EVENING (PLACED THE
HIGHEST POPS HERE). THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...AND SNOWFALL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS SLIGHTLY WEAKER...WITH A SIMILAR TRACK
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS FOR AREAS
THAT APPEAR DARKER ON VISIBLE IMAGERY (GIVEN TODAYS MAX TEMPS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SUNDAY-MONDAY...UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL WITH STRONGER SYSTEMS
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS WILL
ADVECT INTO THE AREA...AND WITH LOW LEVEL SW/W FLOW EXPECTED
ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS NEAR OR INTO THE 40S ON SUNDAY...AND MID 40S
TO LOW 50S ON MONDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THESE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE ISOLATED AREAS OF DEEPER SNOWPACK
(LANGDON AREA...BAUDETTE AREA). CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
FORMATION...BUT IT IS STILL A POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...EXPECTED PATTERN STILL ON TARGET FOR THIS PERIOD
WITH FLATTENING WEST/NW FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH THE ECMWF STILL LOOKING A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THE GFS. UPPER JET REMAINS NORTH THE FA KEEPING ANY WEATHER
SYSTEMS THERE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

STILL DEALING WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS UPSTREAM WITH
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS SO THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD STAY VFR. BY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE
WITH LIGHT SNOW/LOWER CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT KEPT THINGS VFR AS NOT A
LOT OF LOWER CONDITIONS FOUND UPSTREAM. AFTER THE LIGHT SNOW MOVES
THROUGH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE. THEN TOWARD SAT MORNING THE
WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 062056
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
256 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE WEAK WAVES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS.
TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES...BUT OVERALL
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES EXPECTED.

THE FIRST SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS...IS APPROACHING.
THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PLACE THE STRONGEST FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO NW MN THIS EVENING (PLACED THE
HIGHEST POPS HERE). THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...AND SNOWFALL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS SLIGHTLY WEAKER...WITH A SIMILAR TRACK
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS FOR AREAS
THAT APPEAR DARKER ON VISIBLE IMAGERY (GIVEN TODAYS MAX TEMPS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SUNDAY-MONDAY...UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL WITH STRONGER SYSTEMS
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS WILL
ADVECT INTO THE AREA...AND WITH LOW LEVEL SW/W FLOW EXPECTED
ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS NEAR OR INTO THE 40S ON SUNDAY...AND MID 40S
TO LOW 50S ON MONDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THESE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE ISOLATED AREAS OF DEEPER SNOWPACK
(LANGDON AREA...BAUDETTE AREA). CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
FORMATION...BUT IT IS STILL A POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...EXPECTED PATTERN STILL ON TARGET FOR THIS PERIOD
WITH FLATTENING WEST/NW FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH THE ECMWF STILL LOOKING A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THE GFS. UPPER JET REMAINS NORTH THE FA KEEPING ANY WEATHER
SYSTEMS THERE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

STILL DEALING WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS UPSTREAM WITH
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS SO THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD STAY VFR. BY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE
WITH LIGHT SNOW/LOWER CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT KEPT THINGS VFR AS NOT A
LOT OF LOWER CONDITIONS FOUND UPSTREAM. AFTER THE LIGHT SNOW MOVES
THROUGH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE. THEN TOWARD SAT MORNING THE
WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 062056
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
256 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE WEAK WAVES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS.
TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES...BUT OVERALL
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES EXPECTED.

THE FIRST SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS...IS APPROACHING.
THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PLACE THE STRONGEST FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO NW MN THIS EVENING (PLACED THE
HIGHEST POPS HERE). THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...AND SNOWFALL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS SLIGHTLY WEAKER...WITH A SIMILAR TRACK
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS FOR AREAS
THAT APPEAR DARKER ON VISIBLE IMAGERY (GIVEN TODAYS MAX TEMPS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SUNDAY-MONDAY...UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL WITH STRONGER SYSTEMS
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS WILL
ADVECT INTO THE AREA...AND WITH LOW LEVEL SW/W FLOW EXPECTED
ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS NEAR OR INTO THE 40S ON SUNDAY...AND MID 40S
TO LOW 50S ON MONDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THESE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE ISOLATED AREAS OF DEEPER SNOWPACK
(LANGDON AREA...BAUDETTE AREA). CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
FORMATION...BUT IT IS STILL A POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...EXPECTED PATTERN STILL ON TARGET FOR THIS PERIOD
WITH FLATTENING WEST/NW FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH THE ECMWF STILL LOOKING A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THE GFS. UPPER JET REMAINS NORTH THE FA KEEPING ANY WEATHER
SYSTEMS THERE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

STILL DEALING WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS UPSTREAM WITH
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS SO THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD STAY VFR. BY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE
WITH LIGHT SNOW/LOWER CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT KEPT THINGS VFR AS NOT A
LOT OF LOWER CONDITIONS FOUND UPSTREAM. AFTER THE LIGHT SNOW MOVES
THROUGH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE. THEN TOWARD SAT MORNING THE
WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 062056
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
256 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE WEAK WAVES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS.
TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES...BUT OVERALL
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES EXPECTED.

THE FIRST SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS...IS APPROACHING.
THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PLACE THE STRONGEST FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO NW MN THIS EVENING (PLACED THE
HIGHEST POPS HERE). THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...AND SNOWFALL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS SLIGHTLY WEAKER...WITH A SIMILAR TRACK
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS FOR AREAS
THAT APPEAR DARKER ON VISIBLE IMAGERY (GIVEN TODAYS MAX TEMPS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SUNDAY-MONDAY...UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL WITH STRONGER SYSTEMS
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS WILL
ADVECT INTO THE AREA...AND WITH LOW LEVEL SW/W FLOW EXPECTED
ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS NEAR OR INTO THE 40S ON SUNDAY...AND MID 40S
TO LOW 50S ON MONDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THESE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE ISOLATED AREAS OF DEEPER SNOWPACK
(LANGDON AREA...BAUDETTE AREA). CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
FORMATION...BUT IT IS STILL A POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...EXPECTED PATTERN STILL ON TARGET FOR THIS PERIOD
WITH FLATTENING WEST/NW FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH THE ECMWF STILL LOOKING A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THE GFS. UPPER JET REMAINS NORTH THE FA KEEPING ANY WEATHER
SYSTEMS THERE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

STILL DEALING WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS UPSTREAM WITH
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS SO THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD STAY VFR. BY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE
WITH LIGHT SNOW/LOWER CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT KEPT THINGS VFR AS NOT A
LOT OF LOWER CONDITIONS FOUND UPSTREAM. AFTER THE LIGHT SNOW MOVES
THROUGH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE. THEN TOWARD SAT MORNING THE
WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 062056
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
256 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE WEAK WAVES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS.
TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES...BUT OVERALL
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES EXPECTED.

THE FIRST SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS...IS APPROACHING.
THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PLACE THE STRONGEST FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO NW MN THIS EVENING (PLACED THE
HIGHEST POPS HERE). THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...AND SNOWFALL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS SLIGHTLY WEAKER...WITH A SIMILAR TRACK
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS FOR AREAS
THAT APPEAR DARKER ON VISIBLE IMAGERY (GIVEN TODAYS MAX TEMPS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SUNDAY-MONDAY...UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL WITH STRONGER SYSTEMS
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS WILL
ADVECT INTO THE AREA...AND WITH LOW LEVEL SW/W FLOW EXPECTED
ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS NEAR OR INTO THE 40S ON SUNDAY...AND MID 40S
TO LOW 50S ON MONDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THESE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE ISOLATED AREAS OF DEEPER SNOWPACK
(LANGDON AREA...BAUDETTE AREA). CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
FORMATION...BUT IT IS STILL A POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...EXPECTED PATTERN STILL ON TARGET FOR THIS PERIOD
WITH FLATTENING WEST/NW FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH THE ECMWF STILL LOOKING A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THE GFS. UPPER JET REMAINS NORTH THE FA KEEPING ANY WEATHER
SYSTEMS THERE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

STILL DEALING WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS UPSTREAM WITH
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS SO THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD STAY VFR. BY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE
WITH LIGHT SNOW/LOWER CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT KEPT THINGS VFR AS NOT A
LOT OF LOWER CONDITIONS FOUND UPSTREAM. AFTER THE LIGHT SNOW MOVES
THROUGH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE. THEN TOWARD SAT MORNING THE
WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KBIS 062047
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
247 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
IN THIS SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE. THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARE
DEEPLY EMBEDDED IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH SEVERAL WEAK
PERTURBATIONS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE IN
SASKATCHEWAN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG ONE OF THESE SHORT WAVES AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
TEPID TO GENERATE MUCH PRECIP WITH THIS AND SO FAR TODAY HAVE SEEN
NO SURFACE REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH RADARS HAVE SHOWN
ABUNDANT LIGHT RETURNS. THE NAM/GFS MODELS GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF A 100+ KT  JET TONIGHT THAT LEAVES
MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA DRY. SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PRECIP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...THE MODELS GENERATED PRECIP AGAIN FOLLOWING THE JET
LOCATION. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH CENTRAL. AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH WITH THE COOL AIR ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES
OF RAIN OR SNOW OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH MAINLY
TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES
FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA.

SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI...WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS
GONE/VIRTUALLY GONE...AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE
30S AND WE SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY...AND 50-60 THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COTEAU...STILL
HAS A SMALL SNOW PACK. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S. MAX TEMPERATURES OF 35 TO 40 CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH
40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND 35 TO 45 THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SURFACE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
INTO MINNESOTA BY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SPOTTY AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATO CU THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 062047
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
247 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
IN THIS SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE. THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARE
DEEPLY EMBEDDED IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH SEVERAL WEAK
PERTURBATIONS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE IN
SASKATCHEWAN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG ONE OF THESE SHORT WAVES AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
TEPID TO GENERATE MUCH PRECIP WITH THIS AND SO FAR TODAY HAVE SEEN
NO SURFACE REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH RADARS HAVE SHOWN
ABUNDANT LIGHT RETURNS. THE NAM/GFS MODELS GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF A 100+ KT  JET TONIGHT THAT LEAVES
MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA DRY. SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PRECIP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...THE MODELS GENERATED PRECIP AGAIN FOLLOWING THE JET
LOCATION. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH CENTRAL. AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH WITH THE COOL AIR ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES
OF RAIN OR SNOW OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH MAINLY
TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES
FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA.

SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI...WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS
GONE/VIRTUALLY GONE...AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE
30S AND WE SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY...AND 50-60 THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COTEAU...STILL
HAS A SMALL SNOW PACK. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S. MAX TEMPERATURES OF 35 TO 40 CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH
40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND 35 TO 45 THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SURFACE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
INTO MINNESOTA BY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SPOTTY AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATO CU THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA









000
FXUS63 KBIS 061828
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1228 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SHIFTED THE POPS TO THE WEST CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON AS LOCAL
RADARS SHOW RETURNS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL. LOWERED THE POPS A
BIT NORTH CENTRAL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR SOUTHWEST ND ON LATEST NAM INDICATE A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. RAISED MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO 60 OVER THE SNOW
FREE AREA FAR SOUTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM/COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL RESIDE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30MPH
WILL MOSTLY BE FELT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MEANDERING INTO NORTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH A 100KT 300MB JET STREAK WAS
SLIDING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SHORTWAVE AND JET
STREAK WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
GENERATED ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
BORDER 18Z-00Z SATURDAY. VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
LEADING TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN WILL
RESULT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE JET
STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...THE DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL BE MAINTAINED LEADING TO CONTINUE
RISING MOTION AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WILL STILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
WITH THE WARMEST AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A NEAR 100KT JET DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THE MAIN
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR CWA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER JET WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSLATING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING BUT EXPECT MAINLY
RAIN. IF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER/LATER IN THE DAY
THE PROBABILITY OF A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW INCREASES. OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
AND WE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS WHICH WAS HINTING AT
A COOL DOWN MID WEEK HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT...BRINGING A
GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST...THEN WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK AND BRINGS AN
EVEN WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL UTILIZE A BLEND WHICH KEEPS US MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SURFACE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
INTO MINNESOTA BY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SPOTTY AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATO CU THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 061828
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1228 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SHIFTED THE POPS TO THE WEST CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON AS LOCAL
RADARS SHOW RETURNS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL. LOWERED THE POPS A
BIT NORTH CENTRAL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR SOUTHWEST ND ON LATEST NAM INDICATE A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. RAISED MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO 60 OVER THE SNOW
FREE AREA FAR SOUTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM/COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL RESIDE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30MPH
WILL MOSTLY BE FELT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MEANDERING INTO NORTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH A 100KT 300MB JET STREAK WAS
SLIDING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SHORTWAVE AND JET
STREAK WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
GENERATED ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
BORDER 18Z-00Z SATURDAY. VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
LEADING TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN WILL
RESULT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE JET
STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...THE DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL BE MAINTAINED LEADING TO CONTINUE
RISING MOTION AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WILL STILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
WITH THE WARMEST AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A NEAR 100KT JET DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THE MAIN
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR CWA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER JET WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSLATING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING BUT EXPECT MAINLY
RAIN. IF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER/LATER IN THE DAY
THE PROBABILITY OF A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW INCREASES. OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
AND WE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS WHICH WAS HINTING AT
A COOL DOWN MID WEEK HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT...BRINGING A
GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST...THEN WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK AND BRINGS AN
EVEN WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL UTILIZE A BLEND WHICH KEEPS US MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SURFACE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
INTO MINNESOTA BY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SPOTTY AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATO CU THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 061826
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1226 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPDATE FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT INVOLVES ADDING DETAILS TO THE
FORECAST...SUCH AS BETTER TIMING OF HIGHER POPS/SNOW ALONG WITH A
MORE REALISTIC TEMPERATURE TREND. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES PRECIP
ACROSS A PORTION OF NW MN...AND RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY HERE. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE...AND KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS UNDER
AN INCH. AT 06Z...SFC LOW WILL BE JUST NORTH OF INTERNATIONAL
FALLS...AND AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES A RIDGE OF 925MB TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG AND WEST
OF THE VALLEY. HOURLY TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE WARMEST AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THEN A COLD FROPA AFTER 06Z. ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS
A BIT. THE ABOVE FREEZING LAYER DOES NOT CORRESPOND TO THE
STRONGEST AREA OF FORCING...SO STILL THINKING A MAINLY SNOW EVENT
(BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS MORE ZONAL AND QUITE PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR
LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE OVER THE AREA. RADAR SHOWING WEAK
RETURNS OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST MN. PRECIP WAS MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 30 KNOTS AND PRECIP WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXPECTED TO CUT OFF WITH
JET STREAM TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA BY 84 HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME, JET STREAK/SHORT WAVE OVER
WESTERN CANADA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PRODUCE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT PRECIP IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA WITH JET STREAM ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WARM DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW/MID 40S WITH FAVORABLE WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND 925MB TEMPS AROUND +6C TO +9C. THE GFS TRIES
TO BRING A COOL FRONT THROUGH TUE/WED...WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS SOME
COOLING BUT NOT MUCH. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR EVEN WARMER WEATHER IN
THE ECMWF TOWARDS NEXT THU/FRI. WILL KEEP IT FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE
LATER IN THE EXTENDED...BUT WITH MINIMAL SNOW ON THE GROUND AND
MARCH SUNSHINE...WARM WEATHER IS ON THE WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

STILL DEALING WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS UPSTREAM WITH
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS SO THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD STAY VFR. BY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE
WITH LIGHT SNOW/LOWER CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT KEPT THINGS VFR AS NOT A
LOT OF LOWER CONDITIONS FOUND UPSTREAM. AFTER THE LIGHT SNOW MOVES
THROUGH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE. THEN TOWARD SAT MORNING THE
WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...GODON





000
FXUS63 KFGF 061555
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPDATE FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT INVOLVES ADDING DETAILS TO THE
FORECAST...SUCH AS BETTER TIMING OF HIGHER POPS/SNOW ALONG WITH A
MORE REALISTIC TEMPERATURE TREND. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES PRECIP
ACROSS A PORTION OF NW MN...AND RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY HERE. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE...AND KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS UNDER
AN INCH. AT 06Z...SFC LOW WILL BE JUST NORTH OF INTERNATIONAL
FALLS...AND AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES A RIDGE OF 925MB TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG AND WEST
OF THE VALLEY. HOURLY TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE WARMEST AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THEN A COLD FROPA AFTER 06Z. ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS
A BIT. THE ABOVE FREEZING LAYER DOES NOT CORRESPOND TO THE
STRONGEST AREA OF FORCING...SO STILL THINKING A MAINLY SNOW EVENT
(BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS MORE ZONAL AND QUITE PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR
LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE OVER THE AREA. RADAR SHOWING WEAK
RETURNS OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST MN. PRECIP WAS MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 30 KNOTS AND PRECIP WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXPECTED TO CUT OFF WITH
JET STREAM TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA BY 84 HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME, JET STREAK/SHORT WAVE OVER
WESTERN CANADA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PRODUCE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT PRECIP IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA WITH JET STREAM ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WARM DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW/MID 40S WITH FAVORABLE WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND 925MB TEMPS AROUND +6C TO +9C. THE GFS TRIES
TO BRING A COOL FRONT THROUGH TUE/WED...WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS SOME
COOLING BUT NOT MUCH. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR EVEN WARMER WEATHER IN
THE ECMWF TOWARDS NEXT THU/FRI. WILL KEEP IT FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE
LATER IN THE EXTENDED...BUT WITH MINIMAL SNOW ON THE GROUND AND
MARCH SUNSHINE...WARM WEATHER IS ON THE WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND OVER THE RRV INTO NW MN AHEAD OF SFC
TROUGH WILL SHIFT A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. BAND OF MID CLOUDS FROM BAUDETTE TO FARGO WILL
MOVE EAST AS WELL. OVER THE DVL BASIN BEHIND THE TROUGH WINDS WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTION MAY SHIFT
A BIT MORE SOUTH AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE THRU FRIDAY EVENING. BRIEFLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND IT. INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FRIDAY MIDDAY-
AFTN...SOME STRATOCU PSBL ESP NE ND/NW MN AFTER 00Z SAT. -SN PSBL
BUT MORE SO IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA FRI EVE.

 &&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 061555
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPDATE FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT INVOLVES ADDING DETAILS TO THE
FORECAST...SUCH AS BETTER TIMING OF HIGHER POPS/SNOW ALONG WITH A
MORE REALISTIC TEMPERATURE TREND. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES PRECIP
ACROSS A PORTION OF NW MN...AND RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY HERE. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE...AND KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS UNDER
AN INCH. AT 06Z...SFC LOW WILL BE JUST NORTH OF INTERNATIONAL
FALLS...AND AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES A RIDGE OF 925MB TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG AND WEST
OF THE VALLEY. HOURLY TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE WARMEST AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THEN A COLD FROPA AFTER 06Z. ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS
A BIT. THE ABOVE FREEZING LAYER DOES NOT CORRESPOND TO THE
STRONGEST AREA OF FORCING...SO STILL THINKING A MAINLY SNOW EVENT
(BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS MORE ZONAL AND QUITE PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR
LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE OVER THE AREA. RADAR SHOWING WEAK
RETURNS OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST MN. PRECIP WAS MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 30 KNOTS AND PRECIP WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXPECTED TO CUT OFF WITH
JET STREAM TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA BY 84 HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME, JET STREAK/SHORT WAVE OVER
WESTERN CANADA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PRODUCE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT PRECIP IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA WITH JET STREAM ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WARM DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW/MID 40S WITH FAVORABLE WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND 925MB TEMPS AROUND +6C TO +9C. THE GFS TRIES
TO BRING A COOL FRONT THROUGH TUE/WED...WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS SOME
COOLING BUT NOT MUCH. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR EVEN WARMER WEATHER IN
THE ECMWF TOWARDS NEXT THU/FRI. WILL KEEP IT FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE
LATER IN THE EXTENDED...BUT WITH MINIMAL SNOW ON THE GROUND AND
MARCH SUNSHINE...WARM WEATHER IS ON THE WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND OVER THE RRV INTO NW MN AHEAD OF SFC
TROUGH WILL SHIFT A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. BAND OF MID CLOUDS FROM BAUDETTE TO FARGO WILL
MOVE EAST AS WELL. OVER THE DVL BASIN BEHIND THE TROUGH WINDS WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTION MAY SHIFT
A BIT MORE SOUTH AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE THRU FRIDAY EVENING. BRIEFLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND IT. INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FRIDAY MIDDAY-
AFTN...SOME STRATOCU PSBL ESP NE ND/NW MN AFTER 00Z SAT. -SN PSBL
BUT MORE SO IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA FRI EVE.

 &&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 061555
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPDATE FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT INVOLVES ADDING DETAILS TO THE
FORECAST...SUCH AS BETTER TIMING OF HIGHER POPS/SNOW ALONG WITH A
MORE REALISTIC TEMPERATURE TREND. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES PRECIP
ACROSS A PORTION OF NW MN...AND RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY HERE. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE...AND KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS UNDER
AN INCH. AT 06Z...SFC LOW WILL BE JUST NORTH OF INTERNATIONAL
FALLS...AND AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES A RIDGE OF 925MB TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG AND WEST
OF THE VALLEY. HOURLY TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE WARMEST AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THEN A COLD FROPA AFTER 06Z. ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS
A BIT. THE ABOVE FREEZING LAYER DOES NOT CORRESPOND TO THE
STRONGEST AREA OF FORCING...SO STILL THINKING A MAINLY SNOW EVENT
(BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS MORE ZONAL AND QUITE PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR
LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE OVER THE AREA. RADAR SHOWING WEAK
RETURNS OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST MN. PRECIP WAS MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 30 KNOTS AND PRECIP WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXPECTED TO CUT OFF WITH
JET STREAM TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA BY 84 HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME, JET STREAK/SHORT WAVE OVER
WESTERN CANADA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PRODUCE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT PRECIP IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA WITH JET STREAM ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WARM DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW/MID 40S WITH FAVORABLE WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND 925MB TEMPS AROUND +6C TO +9C. THE GFS TRIES
TO BRING A COOL FRONT THROUGH TUE/WED...WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS SOME
COOLING BUT NOT MUCH. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR EVEN WARMER WEATHER IN
THE ECMWF TOWARDS NEXT THU/FRI. WILL KEEP IT FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE
LATER IN THE EXTENDED...BUT WITH MINIMAL SNOW ON THE GROUND AND
MARCH SUNSHINE...WARM WEATHER IS ON THE WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND OVER THE RRV INTO NW MN AHEAD OF SFC
TROUGH WILL SHIFT A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. BAND OF MID CLOUDS FROM BAUDETTE TO FARGO WILL
MOVE EAST AS WELL. OVER THE DVL BASIN BEHIND THE TROUGH WINDS WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTION MAY SHIFT
A BIT MORE SOUTH AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE THRU FRIDAY EVENING. BRIEFLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND IT. INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FRIDAY MIDDAY-
AFTN...SOME STRATOCU PSBL ESP NE ND/NW MN AFTER 00Z SAT. -SN PSBL
BUT MORE SO IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA FRI EVE.

 &&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 061555
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPDATE FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT INVOLVES ADDING DETAILS TO THE
FORECAST...SUCH AS BETTER TIMING OF HIGHER POPS/SNOW ALONG WITH A
MORE REALISTIC TEMPERATURE TREND. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES PRECIP
ACROSS A PORTION OF NW MN...AND RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY HERE. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE...AND KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS UNDER
AN INCH. AT 06Z...SFC LOW WILL BE JUST NORTH OF INTERNATIONAL
FALLS...AND AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES A RIDGE OF 925MB TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG AND WEST
OF THE VALLEY. HOURLY TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE WARMEST AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THEN A COLD FROPA AFTER 06Z. ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS
A BIT. THE ABOVE FREEZING LAYER DOES NOT CORRESPOND TO THE
STRONGEST AREA OF FORCING...SO STILL THINKING A MAINLY SNOW EVENT
(BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS MORE ZONAL AND QUITE PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR
LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE OVER THE AREA. RADAR SHOWING WEAK
RETURNS OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST MN. PRECIP WAS MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 30 KNOTS AND PRECIP WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXPECTED TO CUT OFF WITH
JET STREAM TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA BY 84 HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME, JET STREAK/SHORT WAVE OVER
WESTERN CANADA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PRODUCE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT PRECIP IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA WITH JET STREAM ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WARM DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW/MID 40S WITH FAVORABLE WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND 925MB TEMPS AROUND +6C TO +9C. THE GFS TRIES
TO BRING A COOL FRONT THROUGH TUE/WED...WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS SOME
COOLING BUT NOT MUCH. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR EVEN WARMER WEATHER IN
THE ECMWF TOWARDS NEXT THU/FRI. WILL KEEP IT FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE
LATER IN THE EXTENDED...BUT WITH MINIMAL SNOW ON THE GROUND AND
MARCH SUNSHINE...WARM WEATHER IS ON THE WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND OVER THE RRV INTO NW MN AHEAD OF SFC
TROUGH WILL SHIFT A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. BAND OF MID CLOUDS FROM BAUDETTE TO FARGO WILL
MOVE EAST AS WELL. OVER THE DVL BASIN BEHIND THE TROUGH WINDS WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTION MAY SHIFT
A BIT MORE SOUTH AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE THRU FRIDAY EVENING. BRIEFLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND IT. INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FRIDAY MIDDAY-
AFTN...SOME STRATOCU PSBL ESP NE ND/NW MN AFTER 00Z SAT. -SN PSBL
BUT MORE SO IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA FRI EVE.

 &&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KBIS 061541
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
941 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR SOUTHWEST ND ON LATEST NAM INDICATE A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. RAISED MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO 60 OVER THE SNOW
FREE AREA FAR SOUTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM/COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL RESIDE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30MPH
WILL MOSTLY BE FELT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MEANDERING INTO NORTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH A 100KT 300MB JET STREAK WAS
SLIDING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SHORTWAVE AND JET
STREAK WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
GENERATED ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
BORDER 18Z-00Z SATURDAY. VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
LEADING TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN WILL
RESULT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE JET
STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...THE DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL BE MAINTAINED LEADING TO CONTINUE
RISING MOTION AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WILL STILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
WITH THE WARMEST AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A NEAR 100KT JET DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THE MAIN
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR CWA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER JET WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSLATING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING BUT EXPECT MAINLY
RAIN. IF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER/LATER IN THE DAY
THE PROBABILITY OF A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW INCREASES. OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
AND WE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS WHICH WAS HINTING AT
A COOL DOWN MID WEEK HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT...BRINGING A
GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST...THEN WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK AND BRINGS AN
EVEN WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL UTILIZE A BLEND WHICH KEEPS US MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

EXPECT SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KT AND GUSTS TO 32KT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY...WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15KT TO 25KT AND CIGS DETERIORATING FROM VFR TO
MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 061541
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
941 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR SOUTHWEST ND ON LATEST NAM INDICATE A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. RAISED MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO 60 OVER THE SNOW
FREE AREA FAR SOUTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM/COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL RESIDE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30MPH
WILL MOSTLY BE FELT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MEANDERING INTO NORTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH A 100KT 300MB JET STREAK WAS
SLIDING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SHORTWAVE AND JET
STREAK WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
GENERATED ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
BORDER 18Z-00Z SATURDAY. VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
LEADING TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN WILL
RESULT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE JET
STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...THE DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL BE MAINTAINED LEADING TO CONTINUE
RISING MOTION AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WILL STILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
WITH THE WARMEST AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A NEAR 100KT JET DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THE MAIN
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR CWA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER JET WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSLATING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING BUT EXPECT MAINLY
RAIN. IF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER/LATER IN THE DAY
THE PROBABILITY OF A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW INCREASES. OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
AND WE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS WHICH WAS HINTING AT
A COOL DOWN MID WEEK HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT...BRINGING A
GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST...THEN WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK AND BRINGS AN
EVEN WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL UTILIZE A BLEND WHICH KEEPS US MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

EXPECT SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KT AND GUSTS TO 32KT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY...WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15KT TO 25KT AND CIGS DETERIORATING FROM VFR TO
MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 061541
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
941 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR SOUTHWEST ND ON LATEST NAM INDICATE A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. RAISED MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO 60 OVER THE SNOW
FREE AREA FAR SOUTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM/COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL RESIDE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30MPH
WILL MOSTLY BE FELT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MEANDERING INTO NORTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH A 100KT 300MB JET STREAK WAS
SLIDING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SHORTWAVE AND JET
STREAK WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
GENERATED ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
BORDER 18Z-00Z SATURDAY. VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
LEADING TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN WILL
RESULT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE JET
STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...THE DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL BE MAINTAINED LEADING TO CONTINUE
RISING MOTION AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WILL STILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
WITH THE WARMEST AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A NEAR 100KT JET DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THE MAIN
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR CWA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER JET WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSLATING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING BUT EXPECT MAINLY
RAIN. IF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER/LATER IN THE DAY
THE PROBABILITY OF A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW INCREASES. OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
AND WE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS WHICH WAS HINTING AT
A COOL DOWN MID WEEK HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT...BRINGING A
GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST...THEN WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK AND BRINGS AN
EVEN WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL UTILIZE A BLEND WHICH KEEPS US MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

EXPECT SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KT AND GUSTS TO 32KT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY...WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15KT TO 25KT AND CIGS DETERIORATING FROM VFR TO
MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 061541
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
941 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR SOUTHWEST ND ON LATEST NAM INDICATE A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. RAISED MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO 60 OVER THE SNOW
FREE AREA FAR SOUTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM/COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL RESIDE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30MPH
WILL MOSTLY BE FELT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MEANDERING INTO NORTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH A 100KT 300MB JET STREAK WAS
SLIDING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SHORTWAVE AND JET
STREAK WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
GENERATED ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
BORDER 18Z-00Z SATURDAY. VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
LEADING TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN WILL
RESULT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE JET
STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...THE DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL BE MAINTAINED LEADING TO CONTINUE
RISING MOTION AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WILL STILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
WITH THE WARMEST AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A NEAR 100KT JET DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THE MAIN
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR CWA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER JET WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSLATING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING BUT EXPECT MAINLY
RAIN. IF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER/LATER IN THE DAY
THE PROBABILITY OF A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW INCREASES. OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
AND WE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS WHICH WAS HINTING AT
A COOL DOWN MID WEEK HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT...BRINGING A
GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST...THEN WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK AND BRINGS AN
EVEN WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL UTILIZE A BLEND WHICH KEEPS US MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

EXPECT SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KT AND GUSTS TO 32KT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY...WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15KT TO 25KT AND CIGS DETERIORATING FROM VFR TO
MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 061222
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM/COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL RESIDE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30MPH
WILL MOSTLY BE FELT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MEANDERING INTO NORTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH A 100KT 300MB JET STREAK WAS
SLIDING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SHORTWAVE AND JET
STREAK WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
GENERATED ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
BORDER 18Z-00Z SATURDAY. VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
LEADING TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN WILL
RESULT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE JET
STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...THE DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL BE MAINTAINED LEADING TO CONTINUE
RISING MOTION AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WILL STILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
WITH THE WARMEST AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A NEAR 100KT JET DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THE MAIN
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR CWA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER JET WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSLATING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING BUT EXPECT MAINLY
RAIN. IF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER/LATER IN THE DAY
THE PROBABILITY OF A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW INCREASES. OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
AND WE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS WHICH WAS HINTING AT
A COOL DOWN MID WEEK HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT...BRINGING A
GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST...THEN WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK AND BRINGS AN
EVEN WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL UTILIZE A BLEND WHICH KEEPS US MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

EXPECT SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KT AND GUSTS TO 32KT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY...WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15KT TO 25KT AND CIGS DETERIORATING FROM VFR TO
MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 061222
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM/COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL RESIDE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30MPH
WILL MOSTLY BE FELT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MEANDERING INTO NORTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH A 100KT 300MB JET STREAK WAS
SLIDING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SHORTWAVE AND JET
STREAK WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
GENERATED ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
BORDER 18Z-00Z SATURDAY. VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
LEADING TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN WILL
RESULT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE JET
STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...THE DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL BE MAINTAINED LEADING TO CONTINUE
RISING MOTION AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WILL STILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
WITH THE WARMEST AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A NEAR 100KT JET DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THE MAIN
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR CWA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER JET WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSLATING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING BUT EXPECT MAINLY
RAIN. IF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER/LATER IN THE DAY
THE PROBABILITY OF A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW INCREASES. OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
AND WE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS WHICH WAS HINTING AT
A COOL DOWN MID WEEK HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT...BRINGING A
GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST...THEN WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK AND BRINGS AN
EVEN WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL UTILIZE A BLEND WHICH KEEPS US MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

EXPECT SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KT AND GUSTS TO 32KT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY...WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15KT TO 25KT AND CIGS DETERIORATING FROM VFR TO
MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 061222
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM/COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL RESIDE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30MPH
WILL MOSTLY BE FELT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MEANDERING INTO NORTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH A 100KT 300MB JET STREAK WAS
SLIDING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SHORTWAVE AND JET
STREAK WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
GENERATED ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
BORDER 18Z-00Z SATURDAY. VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
LEADING TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN WILL
RESULT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE JET
STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...THE DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL BE MAINTAINED LEADING TO CONTINUE
RISING MOTION AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WILL STILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
WITH THE WARMEST AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A NEAR 100KT JET DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THE MAIN
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR CWA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER JET WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSLATING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING BUT EXPECT MAINLY
RAIN. IF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER/LATER IN THE DAY
THE PROBABILITY OF A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW INCREASES. OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
AND WE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS WHICH WAS HINTING AT
A COOL DOWN MID WEEK HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT...BRINGING A
GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST...THEN WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK AND BRINGS AN
EVEN WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL UTILIZE A BLEND WHICH KEEPS US MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

EXPECT SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KT AND GUSTS TO 32KT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY...WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15KT TO 25KT AND CIGS DETERIORATING FROM VFR TO
MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 061222
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM/COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL RESIDE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30MPH
WILL MOSTLY BE FELT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MEANDERING INTO NORTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH A 100KT 300MB JET STREAK WAS
SLIDING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SHORTWAVE AND JET
STREAK WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
GENERATED ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
BORDER 18Z-00Z SATURDAY. VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
LEADING TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN WILL
RESULT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE JET
STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...THE DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL BE MAINTAINED LEADING TO CONTINUE
RISING MOTION AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WILL STILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
WITH THE WARMEST AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A NEAR 100KT JET DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THE MAIN
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR CWA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER JET WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSLATING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING BUT EXPECT MAINLY
RAIN. IF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER/LATER IN THE DAY
THE PROBABILITY OF A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW INCREASES. OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
AND WE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS WHICH WAS HINTING AT
A COOL DOWN MID WEEK HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT...BRINGING A
GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST...THEN WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK AND BRINGS AN
EVEN WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL UTILIZE A BLEND WHICH KEEPS US MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

EXPECT SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KT AND GUSTS TO 32KT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY...WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15KT TO 25KT AND CIGS DETERIORATING FROM VFR TO
MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 061222
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM/COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL RESIDE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30MPH
WILL MOSTLY BE FELT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MEANDERING INTO NORTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH A 100KT 300MB JET STREAK WAS
SLIDING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SHORTWAVE AND JET
STREAK WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
GENERATED ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
BORDER 18Z-00Z SATURDAY. VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
LEADING TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN WILL
RESULT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE JET
STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...THE DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL BE MAINTAINED LEADING TO CONTINUE
RISING MOTION AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WILL STILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
WITH THE WARMEST AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A NEAR 100KT JET DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THE MAIN
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR CWA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER JET WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSLATING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING BUT EXPECT MAINLY
RAIN. IF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER/LATER IN THE DAY
THE PROBABILITY OF A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW INCREASES. OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
AND WE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS WHICH WAS HINTING AT
A COOL DOWN MID WEEK HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT...BRINGING A
GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST...THEN WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK AND BRINGS AN
EVEN WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL UTILIZE A BLEND WHICH KEEPS US MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

EXPECT SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KT AND GUSTS TO 32KT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY...WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15KT TO 25KT AND CIGS DETERIORATING FROM VFR TO
MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 061222
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM/COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL RESIDE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30MPH
WILL MOSTLY BE FELT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MEANDERING INTO NORTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH A 100KT 300MB JET STREAK WAS
SLIDING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SHORTWAVE AND JET
STREAK WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
GENERATED ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
BORDER 18Z-00Z SATURDAY. VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
LEADING TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN WILL
RESULT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE JET
STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...THE DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL BE MAINTAINED LEADING TO CONTINUE
RISING MOTION AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WILL STILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
WITH THE WARMEST AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A NEAR 100KT JET DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THE MAIN
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR CWA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER JET WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSLATING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING BUT EXPECT MAINLY
RAIN. IF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER/LATER IN THE DAY
THE PROBABILITY OF A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW INCREASES. OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
AND WE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS WHICH WAS HINTING AT
A COOL DOWN MID WEEK HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT...BRINGING A
GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST...THEN WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK AND BRINGS AN
EVEN WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL UTILIZE A BLEND WHICH KEEPS US MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

EXPECT SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KT AND GUSTS TO 32KT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY...WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15KT TO 25KT AND CIGS DETERIORATING FROM VFR TO
MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 060959
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
359 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS MORE ZONAL AND QUITE PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR
LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE OVER THE AREA. RADAR SHOWING WEAK
RETURNS OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST MN. PRECIP WAS MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 30 KNOTS AND PRECIP WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXPECTED TO CUT OFF WITH
JET STREAM TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA BY 84 HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME, JET STREAK/SHORT WAVE OVER
WESTERN CANADA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PRODUCE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT PRECIP IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA WITH JET STREAM ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WARM DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW/MID 40S WITH FAVORABLE WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND 925MB TEMPS AROUND +6C TO +9C. THE GFS TRIES
TO BRING A COOL FRONT THROUGH TUE/WED...WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS SOME
COOLING BUT NOT MUCH. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR EVEN WARMER WEATHER IN
THE ECMWF TOWARDS NEXT THU/FRI. WILL KEEP IT FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE
LATER IN THE EXTENDED...BUT WITH MINIMAL SNOW ON THE GROUND AND
MARCH SUNSHINE...WARM WEATHER IS ON THE WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND OVER THE RRV INTO NW MN AHEAD OF SFC
TROUGH WILL SHIFT A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. BAND OF MID CLUOUDS FROM BAUDETTE TO FARGO WILL
MOVE EAST AS WELL. OVER THE DVL BASIN BEHIND THE TROUGH WINDS WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTION MAY SHIFT
A BIT MORE SOUTH AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE THRU FRIDAY EVENING. BRIEFLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND IT. INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FRIDAY MIDDAY-
AFTN...SOME STRATOCU PSBL ESP NE ND/NW MN AFTER 00Z SAT. -SN PSBL
BUT MORE SO IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA FRI EVE.

 &&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE





000
FXUS63 KFGF 060959
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
359 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS MORE ZONAL AND QUITE PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR
LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE OVER THE AREA. RADAR SHOWING WEAK
RETURNS OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST MN. PRECIP WAS MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 30 KNOTS AND PRECIP WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXPECTED TO CUT OFF WITH
JET STREAM TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA BY 84 HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME, JET STREAK/SHORT WAVE OVER
WESTERN CANADA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PRODUCE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT PRECIP IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA WITH JET STREAM ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WARM DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW/MID 40S WITH FAVORABLE WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND 925MB TEMPS AROUND +6C TO +9C. THE GFS TRIES
TO BRING A COOL FRONT THROUGH TUE/WED...WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS SOME
COOLING BUT NOT MUCH. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR EVEN WARMER WEATHER IN
THE ECMWF TOWARDS NEXT THU/FRI. WILL KEEP IT FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE
LATER IN THE EXTENDED...BUT WITH MINIMAL SNOW ON THE GROUND AND
MARCH SUNSHINE...WARM WEATHER IS ON THE WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND OVER THE RRV INTO NW MN AHEAD OF SFC
TROUGH WILL SHIFT A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. BAND OF MID CLUOUDS FROM BAUDETTE TO FARGO WILL
MOVE EAST AS WELL. OVER THE DVL BASIN BEHIND THE TROUGH WINDS WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTION MAY SHIFT
A BIT MORE SOUTH AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE THRU FRIDAY EVENING. BRIEFLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND IT. INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FRIDAY MIDDAY-
AFTN...SOME STRATOCU PSBL ESP NE ND/NW MN AFTER 00Z SAT. -SN PSBL
BUT MORE SO IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA FRI EVE.

 &&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KBIS 060827
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM/COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL RESIDE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30MPH
WILL MOSTLY BE FELT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MEANDERING INTO NORTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH A 100KT 300MB JET STREAK WAS
SLIDING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SHORTWAVE AND JET
STREAK WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
GENERATED ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
BORDER 18Z-00Z SATURDAY. VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
LEADING TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN WILL
RESULT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE JET
STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...THE DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL BE MAINTAINED LEADING TO CONTINUE
RISING MOTION AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WILL STILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
WITH THE WARMEST AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A NEAR 100KT JET DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THE MAIN
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR CWA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER JET WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSLATING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING BUT EXPECT MAINLY
RAIN. IF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER/LATER IN THE DAY
THE PROBABILITY OF A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW INCREASES. OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
AND WE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS WHICH WAS HINTING AT
A COOL DOWN MID WEEK HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT...BRINGING A
GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST...THEN WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK AND BRINGS AN
EVEN WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL UTILIZE A BLEND WHICH KEEPS US MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KT
AND GUSTS TO 32KT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z-06Z SATURDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 15KT AND 30KT. AREAS OF LOW VFR CIGS TO MVFR CIGS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 060827
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM/COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL RESIDE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30MPH
WILL MOSTLY BE FELT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MEANDERING INTO NORTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH A 100KT 300MB JET STREAK WAS
SLIDING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SHORTWAVE AND JET
STREAK WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
GENERATED ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
BORDER 18Z-00Z SATURDAY. VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
LEADING TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN WILL
RESULT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE JET
STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...THE DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL BE MAINTAINED LEADING TO CONTINUE
RISING MOTION AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WILL STILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
WITH THE WARMEST AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A NEAR 100KT JET DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THE MAIN
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR CWA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER JET WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSLATING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING BUT EXPECT MAINLY
RAIN. IF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER/LATER IN THE DAY
THE PROBABILITY OF A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW INCREASES. OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
AND WE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS WHICH WAS HINTING AT
A COOL DOWN MID WEEK HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT...BRINGING A
GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST...THEN WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK AND BRINGS AN
EVEN WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL UTILIZE A BLEND WHICH KEEPS US MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KT
AND GUSTS TO 32KT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z-06Z SATURDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 15KT AND 30KT. AREAS OF LOW VFR CIGS TO MVFR CIGS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 060605
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1205 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING INTO
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NOW CIRCULATING
THROUGH NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH
PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SETTLE
THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE FORECAST.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SEPARATE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MILD PACIFIC AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGEST
TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE DAYTIME: HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL
FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY MILD AND DRY
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE - MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE 50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

UNCERTAINTY FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH DIFFERING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KT
AND GUSTS TO 32KT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z-06Z SATURDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 15KT AND 30KT. AREAS OF LOW VFR CIGS TO MVFR CIGS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 060605
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1205 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING INTO
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NOW CIRCULATING
THROUGH NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH
PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SETTLE
THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE FORECAST.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SEPARATE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MILD PACIFIC AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGEST
TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE DAYTIME: HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL
FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY MILD AND DRY
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE - MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE 50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

UNCERTAINTY FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH DIFFERING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KT
AND GUSTS TO 32KT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z-06Z SATURDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 15KT AND 30KT. AREAS OF LOW VFR CIGS TO MVFR CIGS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 060605
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1205 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING INTO
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NOW CIRCULATING
THROUGH NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH
PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SETTLE
THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE FORECAST.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SEPARATE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MILD PACIFIC AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGEST
TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE DAYTIME: HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL
FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY MILD AND DRY
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE - MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE 50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

UNCERTAINTY FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH DIFFERING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KT
AND GUSTS TO 32KT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z-06Z SATURDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 15KT AND 30KT. AREAS OF LOW VFR CIGS TO MVFR CIGS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 060605
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1205 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING INTO
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NOW CIRCULATING
THROUGH NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH
PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SETTLE
THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE FORECAST.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SEPARATE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MILD PACIFIC AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGEST
TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE DAYTIME: HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL
FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY MILD AND DRY
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE - MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE 50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

UNCERTAINTY FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH DIFFERING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KT
AND GUSTS TO 32KT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z-06Z SATURDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 15KT AND 30KT. AREAS OF LOW VFR CIGS TO MVFR CIGS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 060543
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1143 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SCATTERED MID CLOUDS MOVING THRU NW MN AND THE RRV LATE THIS
EVENING DUE TO SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST WIND
AHD OF SYSTEM KEEPING TEMPS UP IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
FCST AREA WHERE LIGHTER WINDS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS TURN A BIT MORE WEST BEHIND IT AND UPSTREAM
TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY MILD SO DID RAISE TEMPS A BIT. BUT ON THE
OTHER HAND DO EXPECT SOME DROP IN TEMPS LATE TONIGHT/SUNRISE AS
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DECOUPLE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES. THE EXPECTED AIRMASS TEMPERATURE WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PERIODS OF
CLOUDS AND SNOW ANTICIPATED...BUT EACH SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE (LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION). THE BEST CHANCE FOR
-SN WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
WAVE EXPECTED LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TAKES A BREAK FOR A
WHILE DURING THE NEXT EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS ZONAL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD SCALE SW PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. POLAR JET REMAINS LOCKED UP IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CANADA
KEEPING SURFACE SYSTEMS AND PCPN WITH IT. DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE
FROM DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 WITH HINT OF A WAVE OR BACK DOOR TYPE COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE OF AN EAST SFC WIND FOR THURS. HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 40S FIRST 3 DAYS WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AT
THE END IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. EARLIER GFS RUNS THAT WERE
MARKEDLY COLDER THAN CORRESPONDING ECMWF ARE NOW TRENDING WARMER
WITH BOTH GUIDANCE SUITES INDICATING HIGHEST 850 MB TEMPS IN THE
PLUS 6 TO 10C RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND OVER THE RRV INTO NW MN AHEAD OF SFC
TROUGH WILL SHIFT A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. BAND OF MID CLUOUDS FROM BAUDETTE TO FARGO WILL
MOVE EAST AS WELL. OVER THE DVL BASIN BEHIND THE TROUGH WINDS WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTION MAY SHIFT
A BIT MORE SOUTH AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE THRU FRIDAY EVENING. BRIEFLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND IT. INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FRIDAY MIDDAY-
AFTN...SOME STRATOCU PSBL ESP NE ND/NW MN AFTER 00Z SAT. -SN PSBL
BUT MORE SO IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA FRI EVE.

 &&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 060543
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1143 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SCATTERED MID CLOUDS MOVING THRU NW MN AND THE RRV LATE THIS
EVENING DUE TO SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST WIND
AHD OF SYSTEM KEEPING TEMPS UP IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
FCST AREA WHERE LIGHTER WINDS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS TURN A BIT MORE WEST BEHIND IT AND UPSTREAM
TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY MILD SO DID RAISE TEMPS A BIT. BUT ON THE
OTHER HAND DO EXPECT SOME DROP IN TEMPS LATE TONIGHT/SUNRISE AS
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DECOUPLE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES. THE EXPECTED AIRMASS TEMPERATURE WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PERIODS OF
CLOUDS AND SNOW ANTICIPATED...BUT EACH SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE (LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION). THE BEST CHANCE FOR
-SN WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
WAVE EXPECTED LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TAKES A BREAK FOR A
WHILE DURING THE NEXT EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS ZONAL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD SCALE SW PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. POLAR JET REMAINS LOCKED UP IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CANADA
KEEPING SURFACE SYSTEMS AND PCPN WITH IT. DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE
FROM DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 WITH HINT OF A WAVE OR BACK DOOR TYPE COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE OF AN EAST SFC WIND FOR THURS. HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 40S FIRST 3 DAYS WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AT
THE END IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. EARLIER GFS RUNS THAT WERE
MARKEDLY COLDER THAN CORRESPONDING ECMWF ARE NOW TRENDING WARMER
WITH BOTH GUIDANCE SUITES INDICATING HIGHEST 850 MB TEMPS IN THE
PLUS 6 TO 10C RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND OVER THE RRV INTO NW MN AHEAD OF SFC
TROUGH WILL SHIFT A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. BAND OF MID CLUOUDS FROM BAUDETTE TO FARGO WILL
MOVE EAST AS WELL. OVER THE DVL BASIN BEHIND THE TROUGH WINDS WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTION MAY SHIFT
A BIT MORE SOUTH AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE THRU FRIDAY EVENING. BRIEFLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND IT. INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FRIDAY MIDDAY-
AFTN...SOME STRATOCU PSBL ESP NE ND/NW MN AFTER 00Z SAT. -SN PSBL
BUT MORE SO IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA FRI EVE.

 &&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 060543
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1143 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SCATTERED MID CLOUDS MOVING THRU NW MN AND THE RRV LATE THIS
EVENING DUE TO SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST WIND
AHD OF SYSTEM KEEPING TEMPS UP IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
FCST AREA WHERE LIGHTER WINDS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS TURN A BIT MORE WEST BEHIND IT AND UPSTREAM
TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY MILD SO DID RAISE TEMPS A BIT. BUT ON THE
OTHER HAND DO EXPECT SOME DROP IN TEMPS LATE TONIGHT/SUNRISE AS
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DECOUPLE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES. THE EXPECTED AIRMASS TEMPERATURE WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PERIODS OF
CLOUDS AND SNOW ANTICIPATED...BUT EACH SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE (LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION). THE BEST CHANCE FOR
-SN WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
WAVE EXPECTED LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TAKES A BREAK FOR A
WHILE DURING THE NEXT EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS ZONAL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD SCALE SW PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. POLAR JET REMAINS LOCKED UP IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CANADA
KEEPING SURFACE SYSTEMS AND PCPN WITH IT. DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE
FROM DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 WITH HINT OF A WAVE OR BACK DOOR TYPE COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE OF AN EAST SFC WIND FOR THURS. HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 40S FIRST 3 DAYS WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AT
THE END IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. EARLIER GFS RUNS THAT WERE
MARKEDLY COLDER THAN CORRESPONDING ECMWF ARE NOW TRENDING WARMER
WITH BOTH GUIDANCE SUITES INDICATING HIGHEST 850 MB TEMPS IN THE
PLUS 6 TO 10C RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND OVER THE RRV INTO NW MN AHEAD OF SFC
TROUGH WILL SHIFT A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. BAND OF MID CLUOUDS FROM BAUDETTE TO FARGO WILL
MOVE EAST AS WELL. OVER THE DVL BASIN BEHIND THE TROUGH WINDS WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTION MAY SHIFT
A BIT MORE SOUTH AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE THRU FRIDAY EVENING. BRIEFLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND IT. INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FRIDAY MIDDAY-
AFTN...SOME STRATOCU PSBL ESP NE ND/NW MN AFTER 00Z SAT. -SN PSBL
BUT MORE SO IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA FRI EVE.

 &&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 060543
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1143 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SCATTERED MID CLOUDS MOVING THRU NW MN AND THE RRV LATE THIS
EVENING DUE TO SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST WIND
AHD OF SYSTEM KEEPING TEMPS UP IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
FCST AREA WHERE LIGHTER WINDS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS TURN A BIT MORE WEST BEHIND IT AND UPSTREAM
TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY MILD SO DID RAISE TEMPS A BIT. BUT ON THE
OTHER HAND DO EXPECT SOME DROP IN TEMPS LATE TONIGHT/SUNRISE AS
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DECOUPLE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES. THE EXPECTED AIRMASS TEMPERATURE WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PERIODS OF
CLOUDS AND SNOW ANTICIPATED...BUT EACH SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE (LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION). THE BEST CHANCE FOR
-SN WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
WAVE EXPECTED LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TAKES A BREAK FOR A
WHILE DURING THE NEXT EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS ZONAL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD SCALE SW PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. POLAR JET REMAINS LOCKED UP IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CANADA
KEEPING SURFACE SYSTEMS AND PCPN WITH IT. DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE
FROM DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 WITH HINT OF A WAVE OR BACK DOOR TYPE COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE OF AN EAST SFC WIND FOR THURS. HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 40S FIRST 3 DAYS WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AT
THE END IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. EARLIER GFS RUNS THAT WERE
MARKEDLY COLDER THAN CORRESPONDING ECMWF ARE NOW TRENDING WARMER
WITH BOTH GUIDANCE SUITES INDICATING HIGHEST 850 MB TEMPS IN THE
PLUS 6 TO 10C RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND OVER THE RRV INTO NW MN AHEAD OF SFC
TROUGH WILL SHIFT A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. BAND OF MID CLUOUDS FROM BAUDETTE TO FARGO WILL
MOVE EAST AS WELL. OVER THE DVL BASIN BEHIND THE TROUGH WINDS WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTION MAY SHIFT
A BIT MORE SOUTH AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE THRU FRIDAY EVENING. BRIEFLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND IT. INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FRIDAY MIDDAY-
AFTN...SOME STRATOCU PSBL ESP NE ND/NW MN AFTER 00Z SAT. -SN PSBL
BUT MORE SO IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA FRI EVE.

 &&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KBIS 060331
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
931 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SETTLE
THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE FORECAST.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SEPARATE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MILD PACIFIC AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGEST
TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE DAYTIME: HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL
FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY MILD AND DRY
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE - MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE 50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

UNCERTAINTY FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH DIFFERING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOME -SN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 060331
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
931 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SETTLE
THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE FORECAST.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SEPARATE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MILD PACIFIC AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGEST
TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE DAYTIME: HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL
FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY MILD AND DRY
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE - MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE 50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

UNCERTAINTY FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH DIFFERING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOME -SN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 060331
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
931 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SETTLE
THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE FORECAST.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SEPARATE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MILD PACIFIC AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGEST
TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE DAYTIME: HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL
FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY MILD AND DRY
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE - MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE 50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

UNCERTAINTY FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH DIFFERING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOME -SN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 060331
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
931 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SETTLE
THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE FORECAST.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SEPARATE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MILD PACIFIC AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGEST
TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE DAYTIME: HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL
FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY MILD AND DRY
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE - MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE 50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

UNCERTAINTY FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH DIFFERING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOME -SN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 060331
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
931 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SETTLE
THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE FORECAST.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SEPARATE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MILD PACIFIC AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGEST
TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE DAYTIME: HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL
FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY MILD AND DRY
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE - MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE 50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

UNCERTAINTY FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH DIFFERING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOME -SN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 060331
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
931 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SETTLE
THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE FORECAST.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SEPARATE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MILD PACIFIC AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGEST
TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE DAYTIME: HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL
FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY MILD AND DRY
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE - MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE 50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

UNCERTAINTY FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH DIFFERING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOME -SN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 060051
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

FCST ON TRACK. 500 MB SHORT WAVE IN CENTRAL MANITOBA MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO NW ONTARIO TONIGHT. SOME MID CLOUDS BRUSHING THE
FAR NORTHEAST. O/W GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT. WINDS DIMISHING. LOWS
LOOK OK FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES. THE EXPECTED AIRMASS TEMPERATURE WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PERIODS OF
CLOUDS AND SNOW ANTICIPATED...BUT EACH SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE (LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION). THE BEST CHANCE FOR
-SN WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
WAVE EXPECTED LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TAKES A BREAK FOR A
WHILE DURING THE NEXT EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS ZONAL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD SCALE SW PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. POLAR JET REMAINS LOCKED UP IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CANADA
KEEPING SURFACE SYSTEMS AND PCPN WITH IT. DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE
FROM DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 WITH HINT OF A WAVE OR BACK DOOR TYPE COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE OF AN EAST SFC WIND FOR THURS. HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 40S FIRST 3 DAYS WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AT
THE END IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. EARLIER GFS RUNS THAT WERE
MARKEDLY COLDER THAN CORRESPONDING ECMWF ARE NOW TRENDING WARMER
WITH BOTH GUIDANCE SUITES INDICATING HIGHEST 850 MB TEMPS IN THE
PLUS 6 TO 10C RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PD. CLEAR OR SCATTERED CIRRUS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. INCREASING CIRRUS AND THEN MID CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTN. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DIMINISHING
EARLY THIS EVENING AND MAY TURN WEST-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING BACK SOUTHWEST FRI AFTN GENERALLY IN
THE 10-20 KT RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 060051
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

FCST ON TRACK. 500 MB SHORT WAVE IN CENTRAL MANITOBA MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO NW ONTARIO TONIGHT. SOME MID CLOUDS BRUSHING THE
FAR NORTHEAST. O/W GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT. WINDS DIMISHING. LOWS
LOOK OK FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES. THE EXPECTED AIRMASS TEMPERATURE WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PERIODS OF
CLOUDS AND SNOW ANTICIPATED...BUT EACH SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE (LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION). THE BEST CHANCE FOR
-SN WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
WAVE EXPECTED LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TAKES A BREAK FOR A
WHILE DURING THE NEXT EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS ZONAL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD SCALE SW PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. POLAR JET REMAINS LOCKED UP IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CANADA
KEEPING SURFACE SYSTEMS AND PCPN WITH IT. DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE
FROM DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 WITH HINT OF A WAVE OR BACK DOOR TYPE COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE OF AN EAST SFC WIND FOR THURS. HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 40S FIRST 3 DAYS WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AT
THE END IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. EARLIER GFS RUNS THAT WERE
MARKEDLY COLDER THAN CORRESPONDING ECMWF ARE NOW TRENDING WARMER
WITH BOTH GUIDANCE SUITES INDICATING HIGHEST 850 MB TEMPS IN THE
PLUS 6 TO 10C RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PD. CLEAR OR SCATTERED CIRRUS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. INCREASING CIRRUS AND THEN MID CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTN. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DIMINISHING
EARLY THIS EVENING AND MAY TURN WEST-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING BACK SOUTHWEST FRI AFTN GENERALLY IN
THE 10-20 KT RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 060051
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

FCST ON TRACK. 500 MB SHORT WAVE IN CENTRAL MANITOBA MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO NW ONTARIO TONIGHT. SOME MID CLOUDS BRUSHING THE
FAR NORTHEAST. O/W GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT. WINDS DIMISHING. LOWS
LOOK OK FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES. THE EXPECTED AIRMASS TEMPERATURE WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PERIODS OF
CLOUDS AND SNOW ANTICIPATED...BUT EACH SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE (LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION). THE BEST CHANCE FOR
-SN WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
WAVE EXPECTED LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TAKES A BREAK FOR A
WHILE DURING THE NEXT EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS ZONAL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD SCALE SW PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. POLAR JET REMAINS LOCKED UP IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CANADA
KEEPING SURFACE SYSTEMS AND PCPN WITH IT. DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE
FROM DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 WITH HINT OF A WAVE OR BACK DOOR TYPE COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE OF AN EAST SFC WIND FOR THURS. HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 40S FIRST 3 DAYS WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AT
THE END IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. EARLIER GFS RUNS THAT WERE
MARKEDLY COLDER THAN CORRESPONDING ECMWF ARE NOW TRENDING WARMER
WITH BOTH GUIDANCE SUITES INDICATING HIGHEST 850 MB TEMPS IN THE
PLUS 6 TO 10C RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PD. CLEAR OR SCATTERED CIRRUS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. INCREASING CIRRUS AND THEN MID CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTN. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DIMINISHING
EARLY THIS EVENING AND MAY TURN WEST-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING BACK SOUTHWEST FRI AFTN GENERALLY IN
THE 10-20 KT RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 060051
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

FCST ON TRACK. 500 MB SHORT WAVE IN CENTRAL MANITOBA MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO NW ONTARIO TONIGHT. SOME MID CLOUDS BRUSHING THE
FAR NORTHEAST. O/W GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT. WINDS DIMISHING. LOWS
LOOK OK FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES. THE EXPECTED AIRMASS TEMPERATURE WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PERIODS OF
CLOUDS AND SNOW ANTICIPATED...BUT EACH SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE (LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION). THE BEST CHANCE FOR
-SN WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
WAVE EXPECTED LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TAKES A BREAK FOR A
WHILE DURING THE NEXT EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS ZONAL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD SCALE SW PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. POLAR JET REMAINS LOCKED UP IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CANADA
KEEPING SURFACE SYSTEMS AND PCPN WITH IT. DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE
FROM DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 WITH HINT OF A WAVE OR BACK DOOR TYPE COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE OF AN EAST SFC WIND FOR THURS. HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 40S FIRST 3 DAYS WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AT
THE END IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. EARLIER GFS RUNS THAT WERE
MARKEDLY COLDER THAN CORRESPONDING ECMWF ARE NOW TRENDING WARMER
WITH BOTH GUIDANCE SUITES INDICATING HIGHEST 850 MB TEMPS IN THE
PLUS 6 TO 10C RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PD. CLEAR OR SCATTERED CIRRUS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. INCREASING CIRRUS AND THEN MID CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTN. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DIMINISHING
EARLY THIS EVENING AND MAY TURN WEST-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING BACK SOUTHWEST FRI AFTN GENERALLY IN
THE 10-20 KT RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 060051
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

FCST ON TRACK. 500 MB SHORT WAVE IN CENTRAL MANITOBA MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO NW ONTARIO TONIGHT. SOME MID CLOUDS BRUSHING THE
FAR NORTHEAST. O/W GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT. WINDS DIMISHING. LOWS
LOOK OK FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES. THE EXPECTED AIRMASS TEMPERATURE WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PERIODS OF
CLOUDS AND SNOW ANTICIPATED...BUT EACH SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE (LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION). THE BEST CHANCE FOR
-SN WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
WAVE EXPECTED LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TAKES A BREAK FOR A
WHILE DURING THE NEXT EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS ZONAL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD SCALE SW PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. POLAR JET REMAINS LOCKED UP IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CANADA
KEEPING SURFACE SYSTEMS AND PCPN WITH IT. DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE
FROM DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 WITH HINT OF A WAVE OR BACK DOOR TYPE COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE OF AN EAST SFC WIND FOR THURS. HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 40S FIRST 3 DAYS WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AT
THE END IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. EARLIER GFS RUNS THAT WERE
MARKEDLY COLDER THAN CORRESPONDING ECMWF ARE NOW TRENDING WARMER
WITH BOTH GUIDANCE SUITES INDICATING HIGHEST 850 MB TEMPS IN THE
PLUS 6 TO 10C RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PD. CLEAR OR SCATTERED CIRRUS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. INCREASING CIRRUS AND THEN MID CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTN. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DIMINISHING
EARLY THIS EVENING AND MAY TURN WEST-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING BACK SOUTHWEST FRI AFTN GENERALLY IN
THE 10-20 KT RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 060051
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

FCST ON TRACK. 500 MB SHORT WAVE IN CENTRAL MANITOBA MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO NW ONTARIO TONIGHT. SOME MID CLOUDS BRUSHING THE
FAR NORTHEAST. O/W GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT. WINDS DIMISHING. LOWS
LOOK OK FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES. THE EXPECTED AIRMASS TEMPERATURE WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PERIODS OF
CLOUDS AND SNOW ANTICIPATED...BUT EACH SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE (LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION). THE BEST CHANCE FOR
-SN WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
WAVE EXPECTED LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TAKES A BREAK FOR A
WHILE DURING THE NEXT EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS ZONAL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD SCALE SW PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. POLAR JET REMAINS LOCKED UP IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CANADA
KEEPING SURFACE SYSTEMS AND PCPN WITH IT. DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE
FROM DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 WITH HINT OF A WAVE OR BACK DOOR TYPE COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE OF AN EAST SFC WIND FOR THURS. HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 40S FIRST 3 DAYS WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AT
THE END IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. EARLIER GFS RUNS THAT WERE
MARKEDLY COLDER THAN CORRESPONDING ECMWF ARE NOW TRENDING WARMER
WITH BOTH GUIDANCE SUITES INDICATING HIGHEST 850 MB TEMPS IN THE
PLUS 6 TO 10C RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PD. CLEAR OR SCATTERED CIRRUS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. INCREASING CIRRUS AND THEN MID CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTN. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DIMINISHING
EARLY THIS EVENING AND MAY TURN WEST-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING BACK SOUTHWEST FRI AFTN GENERALLY IN
THE 10-20 KT RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 060051
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

FCST ON TRACK. 500 MB SHORT WAVE IN CENTRAL MANITOBA MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO NW ONTARIO TONIGHT. SOME MID CLOUDS BRUSHING THE
FAR NORTHEAST. O/W GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT. WINDS DIMISHING. LOWS
LOOK OK FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES. THE EXPECTED AIRMASS TEMPERATURE WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PERIODS OF
CLOUDS AND SNOW ANTICIPATED...BUT EACH SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE (LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION). THE BEST CHANCE FOR
-SN WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
WAVE EXPECTED LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TAKES A BREAK FOR A
WHILE DURING THE NEXT EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS ZONAL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD SCALE SW PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. POLAR JET REMAINS LOCKED UP IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CANADA
KEEPING SURFACE SYSTEMS AND PCPN WITH IT. DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE
FROM DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 WITH HINT OF A WAVE OR BACK DOOR TYPE COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE OF AN EAST SFC WIND FOR THURS. HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 40S FIRST 3 DAYS WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AT
THE END IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. EARLIER GFS RUNS THAT WERE
MARKEDLY COLDER THAN CORRESPONDING ECMWF ARE NOW TRENDING WARMER
WITH BOTH GUIDANCE SUITES INDICATING HIGHEST 850 MB TEMPS IN THE
PLUS 6 TO 10C RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PD. CLEAR OR SCATTERED CIRRUS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. INCREASING CIRRUS AND THEN MID CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTN. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DIMINISHING
EARLY THIS EVENING AND MAY TURN WEST-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING BACK SOUTHWEST FRI AFTN GENERALLY IN
THE 10-20 KT RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 060051
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

FCST ON TRACK. 500 MB SHORT WAVE IN CENTRAL MANITOBA MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO NW ONTARIO TONIGHT. SOME MID CLOUDS BRUSHING THE
FAR NORTHEAST. O/W GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT. WINDS DIMISHING. LOWS
LOOK OK FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES. THE EXPECTED AIRMASS TEMPERATURE WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PERIODS OF
CLOUDS AND SNOW ANTICIPATED...BUT EACH SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE (LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION). THE BEST CHANCE FOR
-SN WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
WAVE EXPECTED LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TAKES A BREAK FOR A
WHILE DURING THE NEXT EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS ZONAL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD SCALE SW PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. POLAR JET REMAINS LOCKED UP IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CANADA
KEEPING SURFACE SYSTEMS AND PCPN WITH IT. DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE
FROM DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 WITH HINT OF A WAVE OR BACK DOOR TYPE COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE OF AN EAST SFC WIND FOR THURS. HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 40S FIRST 3 DAYS WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AT
THE END IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. EARLIER GFS RUNS THAT WERE
MARKEDLY COLDER THAN CORRESPONDING ECMWF ARE NOW TRENDING WARMER
WITH BOTH GUIDANCE SUITES INDICATING HIGHEST 850 MB TEMPS IN THE
PLUS 6 TO 10C RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PD. CLEAR OR SCATTERED CIRRUS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. INCREASING CIRRUS AND THEN MID CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTN. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DIMINISHING
EARLY THIS EVENING AND MAY TURN WEST-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING BACK SOUTHWEST FRI AFTN GENERALLY IN
THE 10-20 KT RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 060051
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

FCST ON TRACK. 500 MB SHORT WAVE IN CENTRAL MANITOBA MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO NW ONTARIO TONIGHT. SOME MID CLOUDS BRUSHING THE
FAR NORTHEAST. O/W GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT. WINDS DIMISHING. LOWS
LOOK OK FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES. THE EXPECTED AIRMASS TEMPERATURE WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PERIODS OF
CLOUDS AND SNOW ANTICIPATED...BUT EACH SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE (LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION). THE BEST CHANCE FOR
-SN WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
WAVE EXPECTED LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TAKES A BREAK FOR A
WHILE DURING THE NEXT EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS ZONAL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD SCALE SW PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. POLAR JET REMAINS LOCKED UP IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CANADA
KEEPING SURFACE SYSTEMS AND PCPN WITH IT. DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE
FROM DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 WITH HINT OF A WAVE OR BACK DOOR TYPE COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE OF AN EAST SFC WIND FOR THURS. HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 40S FIRST 3 DAYS WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AT
THE END IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. EARLIER GFS RUNS THAT WERE
MARKEDLY COLDER THAN CORRESPONDING ECMWF ARE NOW TRENDING WARMER
WITH BOTH GUIDANCE SUITES INDICATING HIGHEST 850 MB TEMPS IN THE
PLUS 6 TO 10C RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PD. CLEAR OR SCATTERED CIRRUS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. INCREASING CIRRUS AND THEN MID CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTN. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DIMINISHING
EARLY THIS EVENING AND MAY TURN WEST-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING BACK SOUTHWEST FRI AFTN GENERALLY IN
THE 10-20 KT RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 060051
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

FCST ON TRACK. 500 MB SHORT WAVE IN CENTRAL MANITOBA MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO NW ONTARIO TONIGHT. SOME MID CLOUDS BRUSHING THE
FAR NORTHEAST. O/W GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT. WINDS DIMISHING. LOWS
LOOK OK FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES. THE EXPECTED AIRMASS TEMPERATURE WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PERIODS OF
CLOUDS AND SNOW ANTICIPATED...BUT EACH SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE (LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION). THE BEST CHANCE FOR
-SN WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
WAVE EXPECTED LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TAKES A BREAK FOR A
WHILE DURING THE NEXT EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS ZONAL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD SCALE SW PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. POLAR JET REMAINS LOCKED UP IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CANADA
KEEPING SURFACE SYSTEMS AND PCPN WITH IT. DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE
FROM DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 WITH HINT OF A WAVE OR BACK DOOR TYPE COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE OF AN EAST SFC WIND FOR THURS. HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 40S FIRST 3 DAYS WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AT
THE END IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. EARLIER GFS RUNS THAT WERE
MARKEDLY COLDER THAN CORRESPONDING ECMWF ARE NOW TRENDING WARMER
WITH BOTH GUIDANCE SUITES INDICATING HIGHEST 850 MB TEMPS IN THE
PLUS 6 TO 10C RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PD. CLEAR OR SCATTERED CIRRUS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. INCREASING CIRRUS AND THEN MID CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTN. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DIMINISHING
EARLY THIS EVENING AND MAY TURN WEST-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING BACK SOUTHWEST FRI AFTN GENERALLY IN
THE 10-20 KT RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KBIS 060033
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE FORECAST.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SEPARATE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MILD PACIFIC AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGEST
TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE DAYTIME: HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL
FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY MILD AND DRY
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE - MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE 50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

UNCERTAINTY FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH DIFFERING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOME -SN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 060033
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE FORECAST.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SEPARATE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MILD PACIFIC AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGEST
TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE DAYTIME: HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL
FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY MILD AND DRY
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE - MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE 50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

UNCERTAINTY FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH DIFFERING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOME -SN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 060033
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE FORECAST.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SEPARATE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MILD PACIFIC AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGEST
TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE DAYTIME: HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL
FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY MILD AND DRY
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE - MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE 50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

UNCERTAINTY FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH DIFFERING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOME -SN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 052134
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
334 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE FORECAST.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SEPARATE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MILD PACIFIC AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGEST
TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE DAYTIME: HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL
FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.


THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY MILD AND DRY
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE - MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE 50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

UNCERTAINTY FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH DIFFERING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TM






000
FXUS63 KBIS 052134
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
334 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE FORECAST.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SEPARATE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MILD PACIFIC AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGEST
TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE DAYTIME: HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL
FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.


THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY MILD AND DRY
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE - MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE 50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

UNCERTAINTY FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH DIFFERING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TM







000
FXUS63 KBIS 052134
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
334 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE FORECAST.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SEPARATE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MILD PACIFIC AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGEST
TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE DAYTIME: HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL
FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.


THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY MILD AND DRY
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE - MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE 50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

UNCERTAINTY FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH DIFFERING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TM






000
FXUS63 KBIS 052134
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
334 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE FORECAST.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SEPARATE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MILD PACIFIC AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGEST
TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE DAYTIME: HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL
FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.


THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY MILD AND DRY
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE - MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE 50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

UNCERTAINTY FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH DIFFERING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TM







000
FXUS63 KFGF 052122
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES. THE EXPECTED AIRMASS TEMPERATURE WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PERIODS OF
CLOUDS AND SNOW ANTICIPATED...BUT EACH SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE (LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION). THE BEST CHANCE FOR
-SN WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
WAVE EXPECTED LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TAKES A BREAK FOR A
WHILE DURING THE NEXT EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS ZONAL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD SCALE SW PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. POLAR JET REMAINS LOCKED UP IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CANADA
KEEPING SURFACE SYSTEMS AND PCPN WITH IT. DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE
FROM DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 WITH HINT OF A WAVE OR BACK DOOR TYPE COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE OF AN EAST SFC WIND FOR THURS. HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 40S FIRST 3 DAYS WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AT
THE END IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. EARLIER GFS RUNS THAT WERE
MARKEDLY COLDER THAN CORRESPONDING ECMWF ARE NOW TRENDING WARMER
WITH BOTH GUIDANCE SUITES INDICATING HIGHEST 850 MB TEMPS IN THE
PLUS 6 TO 10C RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CIGS AND VSBY TO PREVAIL RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FRESH
SOUTHERLY WIND ARD 15KTSG25 THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE ARD
SUNSET BEFORE SHIFTING TO WEST FRI MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...WJB




000
FXUS63 KFGF 052122
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES. THE EXPECTED AIRMASS TEMPERATURE WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PERIODS OF
CLOUDS AND SNOW ANTICIPATED...BUT EACH SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE (LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION). THE BEST CHANCE FOR
-SN WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
WAVE EXPECTED LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TAKES A BREAK FOR A
WHILE DURING THE NEXT EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS ZONAL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD SCALE SW PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. POLAR JET REMAINS LOCKED UP IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CANADA
KEEPING SURFACE SYSTEMS AND PCPN WITH IT. DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE
FROM DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 WITH HINT OF A WAVE OR BACK DOOR TYPE COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE OF AN EAST SFC WIND FOR THURS. HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 40S FIRST 3 DAYS WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AT
THE END IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. EARLIER GFS RUNS THAT WERE
MARKEDLY COLDER THAN CORRESPONDING ECMWF ARE NOW TRENDING WARMER
WITH BOTH GUIDANCE SUITES INDICATING HIGHEST 850 MB TEMPS IN THE
PLUS 6 TO 10C RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CIGS AND VSBY TO PREVAIL RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FRESH
SOUTHERLY WIND ARD 15KTSG25 THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE ARD
SUNSET BEFORE SHIFTING TO WEST FRI MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...WJB





000
FXUS63 KBIS 051844
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. MID 20S TO LOW 30S ARE FORECAST NORTHEAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 839 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS SURFACE OBS SHOW ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. STILL A COLD START TO THE MORNING OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH READINGS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO
AND WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH 10 AM FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST A BIT THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

DANGEROUS COLD TRANSITIONS TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIGID TEMPERATURES REMAINED ENTRENCHED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. HELP IS ON THE WAY
THOUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH
WEST WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR IN. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (LOCATIONS WITH MINIMAL TO ZERO SNOWPACK)
WILL SEE A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT HISTORY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE SCOURED OUT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN...SEPARATING COLDER AIR NORTHEAST FROM WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE HAD A
HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE
KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END. DID BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP MID TO LATE WEEK...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO
THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 051844
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. MID 20S TO LOW 30S ARE FORECAST NORTHEAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 839 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS SURFACE OBS SHOW ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. STILL A COLD START TO THE MORNING OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH READINGS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO
AND WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH 10 AM FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST A BIT THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

DANGEROUS COLD TRANSITIONS TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIGID TEMPERATURES REMAINED ENTRENCHED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. HELP IS ON THE WAY
THOUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH
WEST WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR IN. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (LOCATIONS WITH MINIMAL TO ZERO SNOWPACK)
WILL SEE A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT HISTORY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE SCOURED OUT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN...SEPARATING COLDER AIR NORTHEAST FROM WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE HAD A
HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE
KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END. DID BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP MID TO LATE WEEK...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO
THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 051844
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. MID 20S TO LOW 30S ARE FORECAST NORTHEAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 839 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS SURFACE OBS SHOW ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. STILL A COLD START TO THE MORNING OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH READINGS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO
AND WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH 10 AM FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST A BIT THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

DANGEROUS COLD TRANSITIONS TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIGID TEMPERATURES REMAINED ENTRENCHED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. HELP IS ON THE WAY
THOUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH
WEST WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR IN. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (LOCATIONS WITH MINIMAL TO ZERO SNOWPACK)
WILL SEE A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT HISTORY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE SCOURED OUT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN...SEPARATING COLDER AIR NORTHEAST FROM WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE HAD A
HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE
KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END. DID BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP MID TO LATE WEEK...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO
THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 051844
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. MID 20S TO LOW 30S ARE FORECAST NORTHEAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 839 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS SURFACE OBS SHOW ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. STILL A COLD START TO THE MORNING OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH READINGS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO
AND WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH 10 AM FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST A BIT THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

DANGEROUS COLD TRANSITIONS TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIGID TEMPERATURES REMAINED ENTRENCHED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. HELP IS ON THE WAY
THOUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH
WEST WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR IN. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (LOCATIONS WITH MINIMAL TO ZERO SNOWPACK)
WILL SEE A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT HISTORY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE SCOURED OUT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN...SEPARATING COLDER AIR NORTHEAST FROM WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE HAD A
HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE
KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END. DID BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP MID TO LATE WEEK...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO
THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KFGF 051828
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1228 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10AM WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
RISING. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS OR LOW 20S
TODAY...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND. MODEL THERMAL FIELDS FOR THE MOST PART IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH PCPN OUTPUT
WITH WEAK SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND AND HELD PRETTY CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE.

TEMPERATURES LEVELING OFF/RISING FROM THE VALLEY WEST AS RETURN
FLOW/WARM ADVECTION INITIATES. MIXING TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY
ALONG WITH SOLAR AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION. AFTER COLD START
SHOULD SEE MODEST RECOVERY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES FA TONIGHT. GFS HAS TRENDED DRIER
CLOSER TO ECMWF/GEM/NAM. GFS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH COLD ADVECTION
IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE WHEN COMPARED WITH NAM/ECMWF AND WILL
FOLLOW WITH THE LATER WHICH HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT.

COLUMN CONTINUES TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY. ONLY CATCH FOR MILD
TEMPERATURES MAY BE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT
WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO SHOULD SEE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 32F.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINTAINED INHERITED POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS MODELS SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. WITH CLOUDS AND
WARMER COLUMN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ALSO HINGE ON THE DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER. WITH MILDER START SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR MAYBE A
LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

NEXT WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE FRIDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM AND MAINTAIN SIMILAR POPS.

LONG WAVE PATTERN DE AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS MORE INTO EASTERN CANADA. LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST FLATTENS AND SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD AND BECOMES FASTER THOUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY FASTER OVER THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE RUNS. UPPER LEVEL JET SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
REESTABLISH ITSELF NORTH OF THE AREA SUN AND REMAINS NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THU.

HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SUN...INCREASED A
DEGREE FOR MON AND INCREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CIGS AND VSBY TO PREVAIL RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FRESH
SOUTHERLY WIND ARD 15KTSG25 THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE ARD
SUNSET BEFORE SHIFTING TO WEST FRI MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...WJB






000
FXUS63 KFGF 051828
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1228 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10AM WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
RISING. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS OR LOW 20S
TODAY...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND. MODEL THERMAL FIELDS FOR THE MOST PART IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH PCPN OUTPUT
WITH WEAK SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND AND HELD PRETTY CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE.

TEMPERATURES LEVELING OFF/RISING FROM THE VALLEY WEST AS RETURN
FLOW/WARM ADVECTION INITIATES. MIXING TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY
ALONG WITH SOLAR AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION. AFTER COLD START
SHOULD SEE MODEST RECOVERY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES FA TONIGHT. GFS HAS TRENDED DRIER
CLOSER TO ECMWF/GEM/NAM. GFS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH COLD ADVECTION
IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE WHEN COMPARED WITH NAM/ECMWF AND WILL
FOLLOW WITH THE LATER WHICH HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT.

COLUMN CONTINUES TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY. ONLY CATCH FOR MILD
TEMPERATURES MAY BE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT
WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO SHOULD SEE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 32F.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINTAINED INHERITED POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS MODELS SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. WITH CLOUDS AND
WARMER COLUMN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ALSO HINGE ON THE DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER. WITH MILDER START SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR MAYBE A
LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

NEXT WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE FRIDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM AND MAINTAIN SIMILAR POPS.

LONG WAVE PATTERN DE AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS MORE INTO EASTERN CANADA. LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST FLATTENS AND SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD AND BECOMES FASTER THOUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY FASTER OVER THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE RUNS. UPPER LEVEL JET SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
REESTABLISH ITSELF NORTH OF THE AREA SUN AND REMAINS NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THU.

HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SUN...INCREASED A
DEGREE FOR MON AND INCREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CIGS AND VSBY TO PREVAIL RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FRESH
SOUTHERLY WIND ARD 15KTSG25 THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE ARD
SUNSET BEFORE SHIFTING TO WEST FRI MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...WJB







000
FXUS63 KFGF 051550
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
950 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10AM WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
RISING. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS OR LOW 20S
TODAY...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND. MODEL THERMAL FIELDS FOR THE MOST PART IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH PCPN OUTPUT
WITH WEAK SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND AND HELD PRETTY CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE.

TEMPERATURES LEVELING OFF/RISING FROM THE VALLEY WEST AS RETURN
FLOW/WARM ADVECTION INITIATES. MIXING TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY
ALONG WITH SOLAR AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION. AFTER COLD START
SHOULD SEE MODEST RECOVERY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES FA TONIGHT. GFS HAS TRENDED DRIER
CLOSER TO ECMWF/GEM/NAM. GFS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH COLD ADVECTION
IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE WHEN COMPARED WITH NAM/ECMWF AND WILL
FOLLOW WITH THE LATER WHICH HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT.

COLUMN CONTINUES TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY. ONLY CATCH FOR MILD
TEMPERATURES MAY BE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT
WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO SHOULD SEE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 32F.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINTAINED INHERITED POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS MODELS SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. WITH CLOUDS AND
WARMER COLUMN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ALSO HINGE ON THE DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER. WITH MILDER START SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR MAYBE A
LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

NEXT WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE FRIDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM AND MAINTAIN SIMILAR POPS.

LONG WAVE PATTERN DE AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS MORE INTO EASTERN CANADA. LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST FLATTENS AND SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD AND BECOMES FASTER THOUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY FASTER OVER THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE RUNS. UPPER LEVEL JET SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
REESTABLISH ITSELF NORTH OF THE AREA SUN AND REMAINS NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THU.

HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SUN...INCREASED A
DEGREE FOR MON AND INCREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CAVOK AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 051550
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
950 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10AM WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
RISING. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS OR LOW 20S
TODAY...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND. MODEL THERMAL FIELDS FOR THE MOST PART IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH PCPN OUTPUT
WITH WEAK SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND AND HELD PRETTY CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE.

TEMPERATURES LEVELING OFF/RISING FROM THE VALLEY WEST AS RETURN
FLOW/WARM ADVECTION INITIATES. MIXING TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY
ALONG WITH SOLAR AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION. AFTER COLD START
SHOULD SEE MODEST RECOVERY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES FA TONIGHT. GFS HAS TRENDED DRIER
CLOSER TO ECMWF/GEM/NAM. GFS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH COLD ADVECTION
IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE WHEN COMPARED WITH NAM/ECMWF AND WILL
FOLLOW WITH THE LATER WHICH HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT.

COLUMN CONTINUES TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY. ONLY CATCH FOR MILD
TEMPERATURES MAY BE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT
WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO SHOULD SEE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 32F.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINTAINED INHERITED POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS MODELS SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. WITH CLOUDS AND
WARMER COLUMN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ALSO HINGE ON THE DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER. WITH MILDER START SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR MAYBE A
LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

NEXT WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE FRIDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM AND MAINTAIN SIMILAR POPS.

LONG WAVE PATTERN DE AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS MORE INTO EASTERN CANADA. LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST FLATTENS AND SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD AND BECOMES FASTER THOUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY FASTER OVER THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE RUNS. UPPER LEVEL JET SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
REESTABLISH ITSELF NORTH OF THE AREA SUN AND REMAINS NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THU.

HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SUN...INCREASED A
DEGREE FOR MON AND INCREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CAVOK AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 051440
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
840 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS SURFACE OBS SHOW ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. STILL A COLD START TO THE MORNING OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH READINGS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO
AND WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH 10 AM FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST A BIT THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

DANGEROUS COLD TRANSITIONS TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIGID TEMPERATURES REMAINED ENTRENCHED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. HELP IS ON THE WAY
THOUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH
WEST WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR IN. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (LOCATIONS WITH MINIMAL TO ZERO SNOWPACK)
WILL SEE A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT HISTORY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE SCOURED OUT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN...SEPARATING COLDER AIR NORTHEAST FROM WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE HAD A
HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE
KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END. DID BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP MID TO LATE WEEK...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO
THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 051440
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
840 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS SURFACE OBS SHOW ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. STILL A COLD START TO THE MORNING OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH READINGS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO
AND WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH 10 AM FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST A BIT THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

DANGEROUS COLD TRANSITIONS TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIGID TEMPERATURES REMAINED ENTRENCHED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. HELP IS ON THE WAY
THOUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH
WEST WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR IN. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (LOCATIONS WITH MINIMAL TO ZERO SNOWPACK)
WILL SEE A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT HISTORY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE SCOURED OUT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN...SEPARATING COLDER AIR NORTHEAST FROM WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE HAD A
HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE
KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END. DID BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP MID TO LATE WEEK...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO
THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 051440
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
840 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS SURFACE OBS SHOW ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. STILL A COLD START TO THE MORNING OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH READINGS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO
AND WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH 10 AM FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST A BIT THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

DANGEROUS COLD TRANSITIONS TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIGID TEMPERATURES REMAINED ENTRENCHED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. HELP IS ON THE WAY
THOUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH
WEST WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR IN. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (LOCATIONS WITH MINIMAL TO ZERO SNOWPACK)
WILL SEE A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT HISTORY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE SCOURED OUT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN...SEPARATING COLDER AIR NORTHEAST FROM WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE HAD A
HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE
KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END. DID BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP MID TO LATE WEEK...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO
THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 051440
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
840 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS SURFACE OBS SHOW ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. STILL A COLD START TO THE MORNING OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH READINGS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO
AND WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH 10 AM FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST A BIT THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

DANGEROUS COLD TRANSITIONS TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIGID TEMPERATURES REMAINED ENTRENCHED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. HELP IS ON THE WAY
THOUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH
WEST WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR IN. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (LOCATIONS WITH MINIMAL TO ZERO SNOWPACK)
WILL SEE A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT HISTORY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE SCOURED OUT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN...SEPARATING COLDER AIR NORTHEAST FROM WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE HAD A
HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE
KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END. DID BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP MID TO LATE WEEK...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO
THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 051240
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. STILL A COLD START TO THE MORNING OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH READINGS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO
AND WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH 10 AM FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST A BIT THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

DANGEROUS COLD TRANSITIONS TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIGID TEMPERATURES REMAINED ENTRENCHED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. HELP IS ON THE WAY
THOUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH
WEST WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR IN. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (LOCATIONS WITH MINIMAL TO ZERO SNOWPACK)
WILL SEE A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT HISTORY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE SCOURED OUT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN...SEPARATING COLDER AIR NORTHEAST FROM WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE HAD A
HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE
KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END. DID BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP MID TO LATE WEEK...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO
THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 051240
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. STILL A COLD START TO THE MORNING OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH READINGS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO
AND WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH 10 AM FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST A BIT THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

DANGEROUS COLD TRANSITIONS TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIGID TEMPERATURES REMAINED ENTRENCHED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. HELP IS ON THE WAY
THOUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH
WEST WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR IN. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (LOCATIONS WITH MINIMAL TO ZERO SNOWPACK)
WILL SEE A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT HISTORY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE SCOURED OUT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN...SEPARATING COLDER AIR NORTHEAST FROM WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE HAD A
HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE
KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END. DID BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP MID TO LATE WEEK...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO
THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 051240
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. STILL A COLD START TO THE MORNING OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH READINGS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO
AND WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH 10 AM FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST A BIT THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

DANGEROUS COLD TRANSITIONS TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIGID TEMPERATURES REMAINED ENTRENCHED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. HELP IS ON THE WAY
THOUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH
WEST WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR IN. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (LOCATIONS WITH MINIMAL TO ZERO SNOWPACK)
WILL SEE A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT HISTORY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE SCOURED OUT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN...SEPARATING COLDER AIR NORTHEAST FROM WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE HAD A
HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE
KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END. DID BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP MID TO LATE WEEK...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO
THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 051240
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. STILL A COLD START TO THE MORNING OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH READINGS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO
AND WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH 10 AM FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST A BIT THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

DANGEROUS COLD TRANSITIONS TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIGID TEMPERATURES REMAINED ENTRENCHED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. HELP IS ON THE WAY
THOUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH
WEST WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR IN. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (LOCATIONS WITH MINIMAL TO ZERO SNOWPACK)
WILL SEE A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT HISTORY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE SCOURED OUT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN...SEPARATING COLDER AIR NORTHEAST FROM WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE HAD A
HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE
KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END. DID BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP MID TO LATE WEEK...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO
THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KFGF 051236
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND. MODEL THERMAL FIELDS FOR THE MOST PART IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH PCPN OUTPUT
WITH WEAK SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND AND HELD PRETTY CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE.

TEMPERATURES LEVELING OFF/RISING FROM THE VALLEY WEST AS RETURN
FLOW/WARM ADVECTION INITIATES. MIXING TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY
ALONG WITH SOLAR AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION. AFTER COLD START
SHOULD SEE MODEST RECOVERY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES FA TONIGHT. GFS HAS TRENDED DRIER
CLOSER TO ECMWF/GEM/NAM. GFS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH COLD ADVECTION
IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE WHEN COMPARED WITH NAM/ECMWF AND WILL
FOLLOW WITH THE LATER WHICH HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT.

COLUMN CONTINUES TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY. ONLY CATCH FOR MILD
TEMPERATURES MAY BE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT
WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO SHOULD SEE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 32F.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINTAINED INHERITED POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS MODELS SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. WITH CLOUDS AND
WARMER COLUMN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ALSO HINGE ON THE DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER. WITH MILDER START SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR MAYBE A
LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

NEXT WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE FRIDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM AND MAINTAIN SIMILAR POPS.

LONG WAVE PATTERN DE AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS MORE INTO EASTERN CANADA. LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST FLATTENS AND SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD AND BECOMES FASTER THOUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY FASTER OVER THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE RUNS. UPPER LEVEL JET SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
REESTABLISH ITSELF NORTH OF THE AREA SUN AND REMAINS NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THU.

HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SUN...INCREASED A
DEGREE FOR MON AND INCREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CAVOK AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 050948
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
348 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND. MODEL THERMAL FIELDS FOR THE MOST PART IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH PCPN OUTPUT
WITH WEAK SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND AND HELD PRETTY CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE.

TEMPERATURES LEVELING OFF/RISING FROM THE VALLEY WEST AS RETURN
FLOW/WARM ADVECTION INITIATES. MIXING TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY
ALONG WITH SOLAR AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION. AFTER COLD START
SHOULD SEE MODEST RECOVERY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES FA TONIGHT. GFS HAS TRENDED DRIER
CLOSER TO ECMWF/GEM/NAM. GFS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH COLD ADVECTION
IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE WHEN COMPARED WITH NAM/ECMWF AND WILL
FOLLOW WITH THE LATER WHICH HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT.

COLUMN CONTINUES TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY. ONLY CATCH FOR MILD
TEMPERATURES MAY BE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT
WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO SHOULD SEE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 32F.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINTAINED INHERITED POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS MODELS SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. WITH CLOUDS AND
WARMER COLUMN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ALSO HINGE ON THE DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER. WITH MILDER START SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR MAYBE A
LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

NEXT WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE FRIDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM AND MAINTAIN SIMILAR POPS.

LONG WAVE PATTERN DE AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS MORE INTO EASTERN CANADA. LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST FLATTENS AND SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD AND BECOMES FASTER THOUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY FASTER OVER THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE RUNS. UPPER LEVEL JET SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
REESTABLISH ITSELF NORTH OF THE AREA SUN AND REMAINS NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THU.

HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SUN...INCREASED A
DEGREE FOR MON AND INCREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAVE
COMPLETELY DISSIPATED. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND PICK UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS
AND HIGHER GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL COME DOWN A BIT
AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 050948
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
348 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND. MODEL THERMAL FIELDS FOR THE MOST PART IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH PCPN OUTPUT
WITH WEAK SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND AND HELD PRETTY CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE.

TEMPERATURES LEVELING OFF/RISING FROM THE VALLEY WEST AS RETURN
FLOW/WARM ADVECTION INITIATES. MIXING TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY
ALONG WITH SOLAR AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION. AFTER COLD START
SHOULD SEE MODEST RECOVERY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES FA TONIGHT. GFS HAS TRENDED DRIER
CLOSER TO ECMWF/GEM/NAM. GFS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH COLD ADVECTION
IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE WHEN COMPARED WITH NAM/ECMWF AND WILL
FOLLOW WITH THE LATER WHICH HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT.

COLUMN CONTINUES TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY. ONLY CATCH FOR MILD
TEMPERATURES MAY BE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT
WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO SHOULD SEE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 32F.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINTAINED INHERITED POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS MODELS SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. WITH CLOUDS AND
WARMER COLUMN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ALSO HINGE ON THE DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER. WITH MILDER START SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR MAYBE A
LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

NEXT WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE FRIDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM AND MAINTAIN SIMILAR POPS.

LONG WAVE PATTERN DE AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS MORE INTO EASTERN CANADA. LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST FLATTENS AND SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD AND BECOMES FASTER THOUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY FASTER OVER THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE RUNS. UPPER LEVEL JET SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
REESTABLISH ITSELF NORTH OF THE AREA SUN AND REMAINS NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THU.

HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SUN...INCREASED A
DEGREE FOR MON AND INCREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAVE
COMPLETELY DISSIPATED. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND PICK UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS
AND HIGHER GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL COME DOWN A BIT
AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 050948
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
348 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND. MODEL THERMAL FIELDS FOR THE MOST PART IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH PCPN OUTPUT
WITH WEAK SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND AND HELD PRETTY CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE.

TEMPERATURES LEVELING OFF/RISING FROM THE VALLEY WEST AS RETURN
FLOW/WARM ADVECTION INITIATES. MIXING TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY
ALONG WITH SOLAR AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION. AFTER COLD START
SHOULD SEE MODEST RECOVERY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES FA TONIGHT. GFS HAS TRENDED DRIER
CLOSER TO ECMWF/GEM/NAM. GFS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH COLD ADVECTION
IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE WHEN COMPARED WITH NAM/ECMWF AND WILL
FOLLOW WITH THE LATER WHICH HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT.

COLUMN CONTINUES TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY. ONLY CATCH FOR MILD
TEMPERATURES MAY BE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT
WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO SHOULD SEE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 32F.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINTAINED INHERITED POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS MODELS SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. WITH CLOUDS AND
WARMER COLUMN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ALSO HINGE ON THE DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER. WITH MILDER START SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR MAYBE A
LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

NEXT WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE FRIDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM AND MAINTAIN SIMILAR POPS.

LONG WAVE PATTERN DE AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS MORE INTO EASTERN CANADA. LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST FLATTENS AND SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD AND BECOMES FASTER THOUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY FASTER OVER THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE RUNS. UPPER LEVEL JET SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
REESTABLISH ITSELF NORTH OF THE AREA SUN AND REMAINS NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THU.

HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SUN...INCREASED A
DEGREE FOR MON AND INCREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAVE
COMPLETELY DISSIPATED. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND PICK UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS
AND HIGHER GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL COME DOWN A BIT
AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KBIS 050932
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

DANGEROUS COLD TRANSITIONS TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIGID TEMPERATURES REMAINED ENTRENCHED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. HELP IS ON THE WAY
THOUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH
WEST WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR IN. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (LOCATIONS WITH MINIMAL TO ZERO SNOWPACK)
WILL SEE A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT HISTORY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE SCOURED OUT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN...SEPARATING COLDER AIR NORTHEAST FROM WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE HAD A
HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE
KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END. DID BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP MID TO LATE WEEK...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO
THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ






000
FXUS63 KBIS 050932
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

DANGEROUS COLD TRANSITIONS TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIGID TEMPERATURES REMAINED ENTRENCHED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. HELP IS ON THE WAY
THOUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH
WEST WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR IN. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (LOCATIONS WITH MINIMAL TO ZERO SNOWPACK)
WILL SEE A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT HISTORY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE SCOURED OUT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN...SEPARATING COLDER AIR NORTHEAST FROM WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE HAD A
HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE
KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END. DID BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP MID TO LATE WEEK...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO
THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 050932
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

DANGEROUS COLD TRANSITIONS TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIGID TEMPERATURES REMAINED ENTRENCHED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. HELP IS ON THE WAY
THOUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH
WEST WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR IN. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (LOCATIONS WITH MINIMAL TO ZERO SNOWPACK)
WILL SEE A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT HISTORY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE SCOURED OUT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN...SEPARATING COLDER AIR NORTHEAST FROM WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE HAD A
HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE
KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END. DID BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP MID TO LATE WEEK...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO
THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ






000
FXUS63 KBIS 050932
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

DANGEROUS COLD TRANSITIONS TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIGID TEMPERATURES REMAINED ENTRENCHED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. HELP IS ON THE WAY
THOUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH
WEST WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR IN. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (LOCATIONS WITH MINIMAL TO ZERO SNOWPACK)
WILL SEE A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT HISTORY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE SCOURED OUT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN...SEPARATING COLDER AIR NORTHEAST FROM WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE HAD A
HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE
KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END. DID BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP MID TO LATE WEEK...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO
THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 050628
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1228 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

NO CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

ONLY ADJUSTMENT FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED AND TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
MANY READINGS BELOW ZERO OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WIND
CHILL VALUES ALREADY DROPPING TO AROUND 20 BELOW OVER A FEW
LOCATIONS. GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES NEEDED. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BETWEEN 00Z-16Z THURSDAY. MINIMUM
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 30 BELOW
ZERO DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE STATE. DECIDED TO FORECAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER SINCE THERE IS NO SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND IN THAT LOCATION.
AS A RESULT...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE SNOW PACK REMAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MILD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ARCTIC AIRMASS SCOURED OUT THURSDAY WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO MORE SEASONAL IN THE 30S AND 40S
FRI-SUN...MUCH ABOVE WHAT WE SAW THE PAST FEW DAYS. COOLER AIR WILL
BE EAST AND WARMER WEST WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERING WEST TO EAST/EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
AS EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. KEPT CHANCES
ON THE LOW END. EACH WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL RESULT
IN EITHER WEAK WAA OR WEAK CAA. THESE HARD TO TIME/TRACK FEATURES
RESULTS IN A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM WE WILL ACTUALLY
GET...AND THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SATURDAY WHEN MODELS BRING
THROUGH THE STRONGER OF THESE WAVES. 12Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST COOLER AND
THE 12Z ECMWF WARMER. THUS FORECAST HIGHS WILL EITHER BE MAINTAINED
OR TRENDED DOWNWARDS.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP AFTERWARDS...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO THE
REGION...ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ






000
FXUS63 KBIS 050628
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1228 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

NO CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

ONLY ADJUSTMENT FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED AND TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
MANY READINGS BELOW ZERO OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WIND
CHILL VALUES ALREADY DROPPING TO AROUND 20 BELOW OVER A FEW
LOCATIONS. GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES NEEDED. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BETWEEN 00Z-16Z THURSDAY. MINIMUM
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 30 BELOW
ZERO DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE STATE. DECIDED TO FORECAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER SINCE THERE IS NO SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND IN THAT LOCATION.
AS A RESULT...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE SNOW PACK REMAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MILD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ARCTIC AIRMASS SCOURED OUT THURSDAY WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO MORE SEASONAL IN THE 30S AND 40S
FRI-SUN...MUCH ABOVE WHAT WE SAW THE PAST FEW DAYS. COOLER AIR WILL
BE EAST AND WARMER WEST WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERING WEST TO EAST/EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
AS EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. KEPT CHANCES
ON THE LOW END. EACH WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL RESULT
IN EITHER WEAK WAA OR WEAK CAA. THESE HARD TO TIME/TRACK FEATURES
RESULTS IN A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM WE WILL ACTUALLY
GET...AND THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SATURDAY WHEN MODELS BRING
THROUGH THE STRONGER OF THESE WAVES. 12Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST COOLER AND
THE 12Z ECMWF WARMER. THUS FORECAST HIGHS WILL EITHER BE MAINTAINED
OR TRENDED DOWNWARDS.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP AFTERWARDS...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO THE
REGION...ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 050628
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1228 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

NO CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

ONLY ADJUSTMENT FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED AND TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
MANY READINGS BELOW ZERO OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WIND
CHILL VALUES ALREADY DROPPING TO AROUND 20 BELOW OVER A FEW
LOCATIONS. GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES NEEDED. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BETWEEN 00Z-16Z THURSDAY. MINIMUM
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 30 BELOW
ZERO DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE STATE. DECIDED TO FORECAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER SINCE THERE IS NO SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND IN THAT LOCATION.
AS A RESULT...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE SNOW PACK REMAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MILD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ARCTIC AIRMASS SCOURED OUT THURSDAY WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO MORE SEASONAL IN THE 30S AND 40S
FRI-SUN...MUCH ABOVE WHAT WE SAW THE PAST FEW DAYS. COOLER AIR WILL
BE EAST AND WARMER WEST WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERING WEST TO EAST/EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
AS EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. KEPT CHANCES
ON THE LOW END. EACH WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL RESULT
IN EITHER WEAK WAA OR WEAK CAA. THESE HARD TO TIME/TRACK FEATURES
RESULTS IN A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM WE WILL ACTUALLY
GET...AND THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SATURDAY WHEN MODELS BRING
THROUGH THE STRONGER OF THESE WAVES. 12Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST COOLER AND
THE 12Z ECMWF WARMER. THUS FORECAST HIGHS WILL EITHER BE MAINTAINED
OR TRENDED DOWNWARDS.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP AFTERWARDS...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO THE
REGION...ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ






000
FXUS63 KBIS 050628
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1228 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

NO CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

ONLY ADJUSTMENT FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED AND TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
MANY READINGS BELOW ZERO OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WIND
CHILL VALUES ALREADY DROPPING TO AROUND 20 BELOW OVER A FEW
LOCATIONS. GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES NEEDED. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BETWEEN 00Z-16Z THURSDAY. MINIMUM
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 30 BELOW
ZERO DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE STATE. DECIDED TO FORECAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER SINCE THERE IS NO SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND IN THAT LOCATION.
AS A RESULT...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE SNOW PACK REMAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MILD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ARCTIC AIRMASS SCOURED OUT THURSDAY WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO MORE SEASONAL IN THE 30S AND 40S
FRI-SUN...MUCH ABOVE WHAT WE SAW THE PAST FEW DAYS. COOLER AIR WILL
BE EAST AND WARMER WEST WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERING WEST TO EAST/EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
AS EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. KEPT CHANCES
ON THE LOW END. EACH WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL RESULT
IN EITHER WEAK WAA OR WEAK CAA. THESE HARD TO TIME/TRACK FEATURES
RESULTS IN A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM WE WILL ACTUALLY
GET...AND THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SATURDAY WHEN MODELS BRING
THROUGH THE STRONGER OF THESE WAVES. 12Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST COOLER AND
THE 12Z ECMWF WARMER. THUS FORECAST HIGHS WILL EITHER BE MAINTAINED
OR TRENDED DOWNWARDS.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP AFTERWARDS...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO THE
REGION...ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KFGF 050544
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS. STILL SEEM ON TRACK
FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY EVERYWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
LOCATIONS. WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND NOT TOO MANY PLACES ARE
REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PULLS AWAY FROM
THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY GOING WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WORDING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

NO CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE PERIODS AS
ARCTIC AIRMASS DEPARTS THE REGION. TEMP RECOVERY TODAY POOR UNDER
THE COLD POOL OF ARCTIC AIR WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS AT TO JUST ABOVE
ZERO SCT TO BKN CU HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ALL BUT THE DVL BSN.
SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES POSSIBLE AS A FEW METARS HAVE SOME PERIODIC
REDUCED VSBYS DOWN TO 3SM IN A FEW LOCALES. EXPECT THE SPORADIC
NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDOWN.

ANOTHER NIGHT OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES AS POSSIBLY THE LAST OF THE
TRUE WINTERTIME SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SW OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AND WINDS REMAINING IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE. WINDS
COMBINED WITH LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL TO 10F TO 20F BELOW WILL
LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES OF 25F TO 40F BELOW BY MORNING FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. AS THE SOUTHERLY RETURN WINDS SET UP TEMP FALL MAY
STEADY OFF OR EVEN RISE ACROSS THE DVL BSN OVERNIGHT.

RETURN FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AS SOUTHWEST 850MB WINDS INCREASE TEMPS FROM
-20C TO -5 TO -10C BY 00Z FRI. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM TEENS IN
THE MN PINES TO 20S IN DVL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...TIMING OF CLIPPER SYSTEM LEADS TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST WRT TO POPS AND TEMPS. EC BRINGS THE
WAVE THROUGH THE FA SOONER...DURING THE DAY GIVING MORE CLOUDS AND
EARLIER POPS...THAN THE GFS/NAM WITH THE GEM IN-BETWEEN. EC
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE ALL SNOW AS WARMEST LAYER REMAINS AT THE
SFC WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE 0 TO 5C RANGE BY 00Z SAT. NAM IS
WARMER WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING TO 3C IN E ND BY 00Z SAT.
NONETHELESS KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC POP WITH AN ALL SNOW PTYPE. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT UPPER FLOW
WILL TRANSITION MORE ZONAL (ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY NW). THE MAIN
STORY WILL BE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH NOT
SURE ABOUT SNOWMELT ISSUES SUCH AS FOG/CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT BY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT FAR OUT PREDICTABILITY IS
QUITE LOW AND THE MODEL BLEND WILL WORK JUST FINE. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE QUITE LOW WITH THE STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAVE
COMPLETELY DISSIPATED. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND PICK UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS
AND HIGHER GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL COME DOWN A BIT
AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.



&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 050544
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS. STILL SEEM ON TRACK
FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY EVERYWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
LOCATIONS. WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND NOT TOO MANY PLACES ARE
REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PULLS AWAY FROM
THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY GOING WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WORDING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

NO CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE PERIODS AS
ARCTIC AIRMASS DEPARTS THE REGION. TEMP RECOVERY TODAY POOR UNDER
THE COLD POOL OF ARCTIC AIR WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS AT TO JUST ABOVE
ZERO SCT TO BKN CU HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ALL BUT THE DVL BSN.
SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES POSSIBLE AS A FEW METARS HAVE SOME PERIODIC
REDUCED VSBYS DOWN TO 3SM IN A FEW LOCALES. EXPECT THE SPORADIC
NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDOWN.

ANOTHER NIGHT OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES AS POSSIBLY THE LAST OF THE
TRUE WINTERTIME SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SW OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AND WINDS REMAINING IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE. WINDS
COMBINED WITH LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL TO 10F TO 20F BELOW WILL
LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES OF 25F TO 40F BELOW BY MORNING FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. AS THE SOUTHERLY RETURN WINDS SET UP TEMP FALL MAY
STEADY OFF OR EVEN RISE ACROSS THE DVL BSN OVERNIGHT.

RETURN FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AS SOUTHWEST 850MB WINDS INCREASE TEMPS FROM
-20C TO -5 TO -10C BY 00Z FRI. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM TEENS IN
THE MN PINES TO 20S IN DVL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...TIMING OF CLIPPER SYSTEM LEADS TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST WRT TO POPS AND TEMPS. EC BRINGS THE
WAVE THROUGH THE FA SOONER...DURING THE DAY GIVING MORE CLOUDS AND
EARLIER POPS...THAN THE GFS/NAM WITH THE GEM IN-BETWEEN. EC
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE ALL SNOW AS WARMEST LAYER REMAINS AT THE
SFC WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE 0 TO 5C RANGE BY 00Z SAT. NAM IS
WARMER WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING TO 3C IN E ND BY 00Z SAT.
NONETHELESS KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC POP WITH AN ALL SNOW PTYPE. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT UPPER FLOW
WILL TRANSITION MORE ZONAL (ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY NW). THE MAIN
STORY WILL BE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH NOT
SURE ABOUT SNOWMELT ISSUES SUCH AS FOG/CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT BY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT FAR OUT PREDICTABILITY IS
QUITE LOW AND THE MODEL BLEND WILL WORK JUST FINE. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE QUITE LOW WITH THE STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAVE
COMPLETELY DISSIPATED. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND PICK UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS
AND HIGHER GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL COME DOWN A BIT
AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.



&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 050544
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS. STILL SEEM ON TRACK
FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY EVERYWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
LOCATIONS. WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND NOT TOO MANY PLACES ARE
REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PULLS AWAY FROM
THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY GOING WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WORDING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

NO CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE PERIODS AS
ARCTIC AIRMASS DEPARTS THE REGION. TEMP RECOVERY TODAY POOR UNDER
THE COLD POOL OF ARCTIC AIR WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS AT TO JUST ABOVE
ZERO SCT TO BKN CU HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ALL BUT THE DVL BSN.
SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES POSSIBLE AS A FEW METARS HAVE SOME PERIODIC
REDUCED VSBYS DOWN TO 3SM IN A FEW LOCALES. EXPECT THE SPORADIC
NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDOWN.

ANOTHER NIGHT OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES AS POSSIBLY THE LAST OF THE
TRUE WINTERTIME SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SW OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AND WINDS REMAINING IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE. WINDS
COMBINED WITH LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL TO 10F TO 20F BELOW WILL
LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES OF 25F TO 40F BELOW BY MORNING FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. AS THE SOUTHERLY RETURN WINDS SET UP TEMP FALL MAY
STEADY OFF OR EVEN RISE ACROSS THE DVL BSN OVERNIGHT.

RETURN FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AS SOUTHWEST 850MB WINDS INCREASE TEMPS FROM
-20C TO -5 TO -10C BY 00Z FRI. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM TEENS IN
THE MN PINES TO 20S IN DVL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...TIMING OF CLIPPER SYSTEM LEADS TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST WRT TO POPS AND TEMPS. EC BRINGS THE
WAVE THROUGH THE FA SOONER...DURING THE DAY GIVING MORE CLOUDS AND
EARLIER POPS...THAN THE GFS/NAM WITH THE GEM IN-BETWEEN. EC
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE ALL SNOW AS WARMEST LAYER REMAINS AT THE
SFC WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE 0 TO 5C RANGE BY 00Z SAT. NAM IS
WARMER WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING TO 3C IN E ND BY 00Z SAT.
NONETHELESS KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC POP WITH AN ALL SNOW PTYPE. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT UPPER FLOW
WILL TRANSITION MORE ZONAL (ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY NW). THE MAIN
STORY WILL BE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH NOT
SURE ABOUT SNOWMELT ISSUES SUCH AS FOG/CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT BY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT FAR OUT PREDICTABILITY IS
QUITE LOW AND THE MODEL BLEND WILL WORK JUST FINE. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE QUITE LOW WITH THE STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAVE
COMPLETELY DISSIPATED. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND PICK UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS
AND HIGHER GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL COME DOWN A BIT
AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.



&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 050544
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS. STILL SEEM ON TRACK
FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY EVERYWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
LOCATIONS. WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND NOT TOO MANY PLACES ARE
REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PULLS AWAY FROM
THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY GOING WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WORDING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

NO CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE PERIODS AS
ARCTIC AIRMASS DEPARTS THE REGION. TEMP RECOVERY TODAY POOR UNDER
THE COLD POOL OF ARCTIC AIR WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS AT TO JUST ABOVE
ZERO SCT TO BKN CU HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ALL BUT THE DVL BSN.
SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES POSSIBLE AS A FEW METARS HAVE SOME PERIODIC
REDUCED VSBYS DOWN TO 3SM IN A FEW LOCALES. EXPECT THE SPORADIC
NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDOWN.

ANOTHER NIGHT OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES AS POSSIBLY THE LAST OF THE
TRUE WINTERTIME SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SW OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AND WINDS REMAINING IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE. WINDS
COMBINED WITH LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL TO 10F TO 20F BELOW WILL
LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES OF 25F TO 40F BELOW BY MORNING FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. AS THE SOUTHERLY RETURN WINDS SET UP TEMP FALL MAY
STEADY OFF OR EVEN RISE ACROSS THE DVL BSN OVERNIGHT.

RETURN FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AS SOUTHWEST 850MB WINDS INCREASE TEMPS FROM
-20C TO -5 TO -10C BY 00Z FRI. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM TEENS IN
THE MN PINES TO 20S IN DVL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...TIMING OF CLIPPER SYSTEM LEADS TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST WRT TO POPS AND TEMPS. EC BRINGS THE
WAVE THROUGH THE FA SOONER...DURING THE DAY GIVING MORE CLOUDS AND
EARLIER POPS...THAN THE GFS/NAM WITH THE GEM IN-BETWEEN. EC
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE ALL SNOW AS WARMEST LAYER REMAINS AT THE
SFC WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE 0 TO 5C RANGE BY 00Z SAT. NAM IS
WARMER WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING TO 3C IN E ND BY 00Z SAT.
NONETHELESS KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC POP WITH AN ALL SNOW PTYPE. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT UPPER FLOW
WILL TRANSITION MORE ZONAL (ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY NW). THE MAIN
STORY WILL BE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH NOT
SURE ABOUT SNOWMELT ISSUES SUCH AS FOG/CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT BY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT FAR OUT PREDICTABILITY IS
QUITE LOW AND THE MODEL BLEND WILL WORK JUST FINE. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE QUITE LOW WITH THE STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAVE
COMPLETELY DISSIPATED. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND PICK UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS
AND HIGHER GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL COME DOWN A BIT
AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.



&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 050544
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS. STILL SEEM ON TRACK
FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY EVERYWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
LOCATIONS. WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND NOT TOO MANY PLACES ARE
REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PULLS AWAY FROM
THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY GOING WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WORDING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

NO CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE PERIODS AS
ARCTIC AIRMASS DEPARTS THE REGION. TEMP RECOVERY TODAY POOR UNDER
THE COLD POOL OF ARCTIC AIR WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS AT TO JUST ABOVE
ZERO SCT TO BKN CU HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ALL BUT THE DVL BSN.
SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES POSSIBLE AS A FEW METARS HAVE SOME PERIODIC
REDUCED VSBYS DOWN TO 3SM IN A FEW LOCALES. EXPECT THE SPORADIC
NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDOWN.

ANOTHER NIGHT OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES AS POSSIBLY THE LAST OF THE
TRUE WINTERTIME SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SW OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AND WINDS REMAINING IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE. WINDS
COMBINED WITH LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL TO 10F TO 20F BELOW WILL
LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES OF 25F TO 40F BELOW BY MORNING FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. AS THE SOUTHERLY RETURN WINDS SET UP TEMP FALL MAY
STEADY OFF OR EVEN RISE ACROSS THE DVL BSN OVERNIGHT.

RETURN FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AS SOUTHWEST 850MB WINDS INCREASE TEMPS FROM
-20C TO -5 TO -10C BY 00Z FRI. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM TEENS IN
THE MN PINES TO 20S IN DVL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...TIMING OF CLIPPER SYSTEM LEADS TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST WRT TO POPS AND TEMPS. EC BRINGS THE
WAVE THROUGH THE FA SOONER...DURING THE DAY GIVING MORE CLOUDS AND
EARLIER POPS...THAN THE GFS/NAM WITH THE GEM IN-BETWEEN. EC
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE ALL SNOW AS WARMEST LAYER REMAINS AT THE
SFC WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE 0 TO 5C RANGE BY 00Z SAT. NAM IS
WARMER WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING TO 3C IN E ND BY 00Z SAT.
NONETHELESS KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC POP WITH AN ALL SNOW PTYPE. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT UPPER FLOW
WILL TRANSITION MORE ZONAL (ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY NW). THE MAIN
STORY WILL BE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH NOT
SURE ABOUT SNOWMELT ISSUES SUCH AS FOG/CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT BY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT FAR OUT PREDICTABILITY IS
QUITE LOW AND THE MODEL BLEND WILL WORK JUST FINE. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE QUITE LOW WITH THE STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAVE
COMPLETELY DISSIPATED. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND PICK UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS
AND HIGHER GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL COME DOWN A BIT
AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.



&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 050544
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS. STILL SEEM ON TRACK
FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY EVERYWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
LOCATIONS. WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND NOT TOO MANY PLACES ARE
REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PULLS AWAY FROM
THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY GOING WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WORDING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

NO CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE PERIODS AS
ARCTIC AIRMASS DEPARTS THE REGION. TEMP RECOVERY TODAY POOR UNDER
THE COLD POOL OF ARCTIC AIR WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS AT TO JUST ABOVE
ZERO SCT TO BKN CU HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ALL BUT THE DVL BSN.
SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES POSSIBLE AS A FEW METARS HAVE SOME PERIODIC
REDUCED VSBYS DOWN TO 3SM IN A FEW LOCALES. EXPECT THE SPORADIC
NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDOWN.

ANOTHER NIGHT OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES AS POSSIBLY THE LAST OF THE
TRUE WINTERTIME SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SW OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AND WINDS REMAINING IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE. WINDS
COMBINED WITH LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL TO 10F TO 20F BELOW WILL
LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES OF 25F TO 40F BELOW BY MORNING FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. AS THE SOUTHERLY RETURN WINDS SET UP TEMP FALL MAY
STEADY OFF OR EVEN RISE ACROSS THE DVL BSN OVERNIGHT.

RETURN FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AS SOUTHWEST 850MB WINDS INCREASE TEMPS FROM
-20C TO -5 TO -10C BY 00Z FRI. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM TEENS IN
THE MN PINES TO 20S IN DVL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...TIMING OF CLIPPER SYSTEM LEADS TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST WRT TO POPS AND TEMPS. EC BRINGS THE
WAVE THROUGH THE FA SOONER...DURING THE DAY GIVING MORE CLOUDS AND
EARLIER POPS...THAN THE GFS/NAM WITH THE GEM IN-BETWEEN. EC
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE ALL SNOW AS WARMEST LAYER REMAINS AT THE
SFC WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE 0 TO 5C RANGE BY 00Z SAT. NAM IS
WARMER WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING TO 3C IN E ND BY 00Z SAT.
NONETHELESS KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC POP WITH AN ALL SNOW PTYPE. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT UPPER FLOW
WILL TRANSITION MORE ZONAL (ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY NW). THE MAIN
STORY WILL BE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH NOT
SURE ABOUT SNOWMELT ISSUES SUCH AS FOG/CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT BY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT FAR OUT PREDICTABILITY IS
QUITE LOW AND THE MODEL BLEND WILL WORK JUST FINE. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE QUITE LOW WITH THE STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAVE
COMPLETELY DISSIPATED. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND PICK UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS
AND HIGHER GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL COME DOWN A BIT
AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.



&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...JR






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