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000
FXUS63 KFGF 292110
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
310 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE...ALONG WITH SNOW CHANCES FOR THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS AREA.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGING AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO MUCH OF
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE CU WITHIN THIS AREA...BUT
ANTICIPATE THESE TO DISSIPATE LEADING CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN FA MAY STAY IN PLACE...AS THE
RAP/HRRR SUGGEST...AND THEN BEGIN TO ADVECT BACK EAST AS RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS. OBVIOUSLY...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY WHERE CLOUDS
REMAIN...BUT QUICKLY DROP WHERE THE SKY IS CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT.
ONCE RETURN FLOW AND/OR CLOUDS COMMENCE ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES -SN ACROSS THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS REGION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. DID
INCREASE POPS...AND EXPECT AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW (MAINLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AFFECTS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...AND HOW
FAR NORTH THE SNOW SHIELD WILL BE ABLE TO AFFECT. THE ECMWF/GEM
ARE A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS/NAM. AT ANY RATE...KEPT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN FA...AND WILL ADJUST WHEN
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE MAY LEAD TO
WIND CHILL ISSUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA SHIFTS A LITTLE EAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS A LITTLE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO WITH A TROUGH INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES A BIT THIS PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF
WERE SIMILAR AT 84 HOURS. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. WILL PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF.

SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH MON/MON NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
DROP COLD AIR ACROSS THE BORDER TUE NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MON AND DECREASED ONE
TO FIVE DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED. TEMPS INCREASED ONE TO THREE
DEGREES FOR THU FROM THIS MORNINGS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS WERE BETWEEN 14
AND 29 HUNDRED FT. OCCASIONALLY VISIBILITIES MAY GO DOWN TO 1 TO 2
MILES IN LIGHT SNOW. FOR LOOP INDICATED SOME CLEARING FROM ROSEAU T
BACKER COUNTIES AND FROM CAVALIER TO STEELE COUNTIES. CLEARING WAS
ALSO OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY PROPER BUT CLOUDS
WERE REFORMING WITH THE SUNSHINE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE LOOP ALSO INDICATED MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER CENTRAL SASK. SO EXPECT CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY PROPER AND EAST INTO MN. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SASK TO SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 292110
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
310 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE...ALONG WITH SNOW CHANCES FOR THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS AREA.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGING AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO MUCH OF
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE CU WITHIN THIS AREA...BUT
ANTICIPATE THESE TO DISSIPATE LEADING CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN FA MAY STAY IN PLACE...AS THE
RAP/HRRR SUGGEST...AND THEN BEGIN TO ADVECT BACK EAST AS RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS. OBVIOUSLY...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY WHERE CLOUDS
REMAIN...BUT QUICKLY DROP WHERE THE SKY IS CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT.
ONCE RETURN FLOW AND/OR CLOUDS COMMENCE ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES -SN ACROSS THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS REGION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. DID
INCREASE POPS...AND EXPECT AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW (MAINLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AFFECTS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...AND HOW
FAR NORTH THE SNOW SHIELD WILL BE ABLE TO AFFECT. THE ECMWF/GEM
ARE A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS/NAM. AT ANY RATE...KEPT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN FA...AND WILL ADJUST WHEN
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE MAY LEAD TO
WIND CHILL ISSUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA SHIFTS A LITTLE EAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS A LITTLE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO WITH A TROUGH INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES A BIT THIS PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF
WERE SIMILAR AT 84 HOURS. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. WILL PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF.

SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH MON/MON NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
DROP COLD AIR ACROSS THE BORDER TUE NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MON AND DECREASED ONE
TO FIVE DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED. TEMPS INCREASED ONE TO THREE
DEGREES FOR THU FROM THIS MORNINGS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS WERE BETWEEN 14
AND 29 HUNDRED FT. OCCASIONALLY VISIBILITIES MAY GO DOWN TO 1 TO 2
MILES IN LIGHT SNOW. FOR LOOP INDICATED SOME CLEARING FROM ROSEAU T
BACKER COUNTIES AND FROM CAVALIER TO STEELE COUNTIES. CLEARING WAS
ALSO OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY PROPER BUT CLOUDS
WERE REFORMING WITH THE SUNSHINE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE LOOP ALSO INDICATED MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER CENTRAL SASK. SO EXPECT CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY PROPER AND EAST INTO MN. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SASK TO SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...HOPPES




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000
FXUS63 KBIS 292005
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
205 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE OVER AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED FLURRIES...ALONG WITH LOW CLOUD COVER...SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AS AN 850MB RIDGE AXIS CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION AND
USHERS IN DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE MID 20S
SOUTHWEST.

DRY CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF WARM-UP IS FORECAST FRIDAY AS A WARM
FRONT PIVOTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE HUDSON BAY LOW DEEPENS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO A
MORE ACTIVE/MUCH COLDER PERIOD FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PRODUCE ABOUT THREE LIGHT SNOW
EVENTS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES OF
25 BELOW TO 35 BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN ENERGETIC PACIFIC 120KT JET STREAM NOW
POSITIONED NEAR 150W/40N. THIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO WESTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA FRIDAY AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
MONTANA SATURDAY. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120KT JET WILL SERVE
TO ENHANCE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
RESIDE IN EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES ALOFT INTERACTING WITH IT. POPS WERE INCREASED TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE WEST WITH DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND PRECIPITATION AREA. HIGHEST
SNOWFALL TOTALS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OCCUR IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST. 1 TO 2 INCHES OCCUR ELSEWHERE
WITH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SEEING LITTLE OR NO SNOWFALL DUE TO A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST/DRIER AIR FLOW.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED UP WITH
A LIGHT SNOW EVENT VIA WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM A
HALF INCH TO 1.5 INCHES.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTH FROM CANADA. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
KEPT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SNOW POTENTIAL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ARCTIC AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -24C TO
-28C DOMINATE WEDNESDAY WHICH RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO
POSSIBLY THE MID TEENS WEST. HOWEVER DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL ULTIMATELY FALLS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THESE POTENTIAL HIGHS. RECOVERY OCCURS THURSDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION SCOOTING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
ALSO LOOKS TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MAINLY IN THE EAST CENTRAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE OVER KMOT-
KJMS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR AREAWIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TM






000
FXUS63 KBIS 292005
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
205 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE OVER AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED FLURRIES...ALONG WITH LOW CLOUD COVER...SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AS AN 850MB RIDGE AXIS CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION AND
USHERS IN DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE MID 20S
SOUTHWEST.

DRY CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF WARM-UP IS FORECAST FRIDAY AS A WARM
FRONT PIVOTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE HUDSON BAY LOW DEEPENS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO A
MORE ACTIVE/MUCH COLDER PERIOD FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PRODUCE ABOUT THREE LIGHT SNOW
EVENTS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES OF
25 BELOW TO 35 BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN ENERGETIC PACIFIC 120KT JET STREAM NOW
POSITIONED NEAR 150W/40N. THIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO WESTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA FRIDAY AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
MONTANA SATURDAY. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120KT JET WILL SERVE
TO ENHANCE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
RESIDE IN EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES ALOFT INTERACTING WITH IT. POPS WERE INCREASED TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE WEST WITH DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND PRECIPITATION AREA. HIGHEST
SNOWFALL TOTALS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OCCUR IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST. 1 TO 2 INCHES OCCUR ELSEWHERE
WITH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SEEING LITTLE OR NO SNOWFALL DUE TO A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST/DRIER AIR FLOW.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED UP WITH
A LIGHT SNOW EVENT VIA WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM A
HALF INCH TO 1.5 INCHES.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTH FROM CANADA. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
KEPT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SNOW POTENTIAL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ARCTIC AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -24C TO
-28C DOMINATE WEDNESDAY WHICH RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO
POSSIBLY THE MID TEENS WEST. HOWEVER DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL ULTIMATELY FALLS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THESE POTENTIAL HIGHS. RECOVERY OCCURS THURSDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION SCOOTING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
ALSO LOOKS TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MAINLY IN THE EAST CENTRAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE OVER KMOT-
KJMS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR AREAWIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TM







000
FXUS63 KFGF 291855
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1255 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS MORNING AND THEN SFC RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL TODAY. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE...MAINLY FOLLOWING 925MB-850MB RH WHICH
LOOKS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. COLD AIR ADVECTION
FLURRIES HAVE SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN FA...AND ADDED FLURRY
MENTION TO MOST AREAS. ANTICIPATE FLURRIES WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN
END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AND SFC RIDGING BUILDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES. EXCEPT
FOR THE SATURDAY SYSTEM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL
MODEL PREFERENCE.

WILL END ZR HEADLINES AT FORECAST ISSUANCE. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. NO PCPN CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED BY OBS AND RADAR CLEAR. COLD
ADVECTION LEVELS OFF THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER MODELS SEEM A LITTLE
TOO QUICK IN DECREASING CLOUDS SO TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL BE MINIMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN THIS EVENING. WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
RETURN FLOW AFT MIDNIGHT SHOULD SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP FROM VALLEY WEST.

WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH WEAK WAVE. WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST MILD DAY
FOR A WHILE AS COLUMN WARMS PRIOR TO CFP FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING SHARP COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MODELS DIFFER ON SNOW POTENTIAL SATURDAY. GFS/ECMWF CLIP THE
SOUTHERN FA WITH -SN WHILE NAM/GEM FARTHER NORTH. WITH
UNCERTAINTY LEFT CURRENT POPS AS IS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN. MEAN JET POSITION WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...A WEAK WAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR -SN...WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD REMAINING
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS WERE BETWEEN 14
AND 29 HUNDRED FT. OCCASIONALLY VISIBILITIES MAY GO DOWN TO 1 TO 2
MILES IN LIGHT SNOW. FOR LOOP INDICATED SOME CLEARING FROM ROSEAU T
BACKER COUNTIES AND FROM CAVALIER TO STEELE COUNTIES. CLEARING WAS
ALSO OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY PROPER BUT CLOUDS
WERE REFORMING WITH THE SUNSHINE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE LOOP ALSO INDICATED MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER CENTRAL SASK. SO EXPECT CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY PROPER AND EAST INTO MN. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SASK TO SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES







000
FXUS63 KFGF 291855
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1255 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS MORNING AND THEN SFC RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL TODAY. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE...MAINLY FOLLOWING 925MB-850MB RH WHICH
LOOKS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. COLD AIR ADVECTION
FLURRIES HAVE SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN FA...AND ADDED FLURRY
MENTION TO MOST AREAS. ANTICIPATE FLURRIES WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN
END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AND SFC RIDGING BUILDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES. EXCEPT
FOR THE SATURDAY SYSTEM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL
MODEL PREFERENCE.

WILL END ZR HEADLINES AT FORECAST ISSUANCE. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. NO PCPN CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED BY OBS AND RADAR CLEAR. COLD
ADVECTION LEVELS OFF THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER MODELS SEEM A LITTLE
TOO QUICK IN DECREASING CLOUDS SO TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL BE MINIMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN THIS EVENING. WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
RETURN FLOW AFT MIDNIGHT SHOULD SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP FROM VALLEY WEST.

WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH WEAK WAVE. WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST MILD DAY
FOR A WHILE AS COLUMN WARMS PRIOR TO CFP FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING SHARP COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MODELS DIFFER ON SNOW POTENTIAL SATURDAY. GFS/ECMWF CLIP THE
SOUTHERN FA WITH -SN WHILE NAM/GEM FARTHER NORTH. WITH
UNCERTAINTY LEFT CURRENT POPS AS IS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN. MEAN JET POSITION WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...A WEAK WAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR -SN...WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD REMAINING
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS WERE BETWEEN 14
AND 29 HUNDRED FT. OCCASIONALLY VISIBILITIES MAY GO DOWN TO 1 TO 2
MILES IN LIGHT SNOW. FOR LOOP INDICATED SOME CLEARING FROM ROSEAU T
BACKER COUNTIES AND FROM CAVALIER TO STEELE COUNTIES. CLEARING WAS
ALSO OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY PROPER BUT CLOUDS
WERE REFORMING WITH THE SUNSHINE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE LOOP ALSO INDICATED MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER CENTRAL SASK. SO EXPECT CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY PROPER AND EAST INTO MN. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SASK TO SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES







000
FXUS63 KFGF 291855
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1255 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS MORNING AND THEN SFC RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL TODAY. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE...MAINLY FOLLOWING 925MB-850MB RH WHICH
LOOKS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. COLD AIR ADVECTION
FLURRIES HAVE SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN FA...AND ADDED FLURRY
MENTION TO MOST AREAS. ANTICIPATE FLURRIES WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN
END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AND SFC RIDGING BUILDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES. EXCEPT
FOR THE SATURDAY SYSTEM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL
MODEL PREFERENCE.

WILL END ZR HEADLINES AT FORECAST ISSUANCE. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. NO PCPN CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED BY OBS AND RADAR CLEAR. COLD
ADVECTION LEVELS OFF THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER MODELS SEEM A LITTLE
TOO QUICK IN DECREASING CLOUDS SO TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL BE MINIMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN THIS EVENING. WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
RETURN FLOW AFT MIDNIGHT SHOULD SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP FROM VALLEY WEST.

WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH WEAK WAVE. WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST MILD DAY
FOR A WHILE AS COLUMN WARMS PRIOR TO CFP FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING SHARP COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MODELS DIFFER ON SNOW POTENTIAL SATURDAY. GFS/ECMWF CLIP THE
SOUTHERN FA WITH -SN WHILE NAM/GEM FARTHER NORTH. WITH
UNCERTAINTY LEFT CURRENT POPS AS IS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN. MEAN JET POSITION WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...A WEAK WAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR -SN...WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD REMAINING
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS WERE BETWEEN 14
AND 29 HUNDRED FT. OCCASIONALLY VISIBILITIES MAY GO DOWN TO 1 TO 2
MILES IN LIGHT SNOW. FOR LOOP INDICATED SOME CLEARING FROM ROSEAU T
BACKER COUNTIES AND FROM CAVALIER TO STEELE COUNTIES. CLEARING WAS
ALSO OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY PROPER BUT CLOUDS
WERE REFORMING WITH THE SUNSHINE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE LOOP ALSO INDICATED MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER CENTRAL SASK. SO EXPECT CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY PROPER AND EAST INTO MN. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SASK TO SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES







000
FXUS63 KFGF 291855
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1255 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS MORNING AND THEN SFC RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL TODAY. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE...MAINLY FOLLOWING 925MB-850MB RH WHICH
LOOKS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. COLD AIR ADVECTION
FLURRIES HAVE SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN FA...AND ADDED FLURRY
MENTION TO MOST AREAS. ANTICIPATE FLURRIES WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN
END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AND SFC RIDGING BUILDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES. EXCEPT
FOR THE SATURDAY SYSTEM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL
MODEL PREFERENCE.

WILL END ZR HEADLINES AT FORECAST ISSUANCE. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. NO PCPN CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED BY OBS AND RADAR CLEAR. COLD
ADVECTION LEVELS OFF THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER MODELS SEEM A LITTLE
TOO QUICK IN DECREASING CLOUDS SO TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL BE MINIMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN THIS EVENING. WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
RETURN FLOW AFT MIDNIGHT SHOULD SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP FROM VALLEY WEST.

WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH WEAK WAVE. WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST MILD DAY
FOR A WHILE AS COLUMN WARMS PRIOR TO CFP FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING SHARP COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MODELS DIFFER ON SNOW POTENTIAL SATURDAY. GFS/ECMWF CLIP THE
SOUTHERN FA WITH -SN WHILE NAM/GEM FARTHER NORTH. WITH
UNCERTAINTY LEFT CURRENT POPS AS IS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN. MEAN JET POSITION WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...A WEAK WAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR -SN...WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD REMAINING
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS WERE BETWEEN 14
AND 29 HUNDRED FT. OCCASIONALLY VISIBILITIES MAY GO DOWN TO 1 TO 2
MILES IN LIGHT SNOW. FOR LOOP INDICATED SOME CLEARING FROM ROSEAU T
BACKER COUNTIES AND FROM CAVALIER TO STEELE COUNTIES. CLEARING WAS
ALSO OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY PROPER BUT CLOUDS
WERE REFORMING WITH THE SUNSHINE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE LOOP ALSO INDICATED MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER CENTRAL SASK. SO EXPECT CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY PROPER AND EAST INTO MN. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SASK TO SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES







000
FXUS63 KBIS 291817
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1217 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE BEING OBSERVED UNDER LOW CLOUDS OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTED THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE CLOUD
DECK BEGINS TO ERODE THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...ADDED SCATTERED
FLURRIES TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 848 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. OVERCAST SKIES
WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AS SATURATED STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES KEEP A LID ON VERTICAL MIXING. GRADUAL
CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS AN 850MB RIDGE
AXIS ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...USHERING IN RELATIVELY DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY
GIVEN THE ANTICYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES FROM THEIR CURRENT VALUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES OVER ALL BUT A PORTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CONTINUED
CLEARING HERE THIS MORNING...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE EAST AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATED MORNING SKY COVER. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND CLOUD
COVER/RESULTANT TEMPERATURES TODAY.

CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION. EMBEDDED S/WV MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITING NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES TO CREATE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAINLY
ALONG TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94...WHICH SHOULD END BY 12Z AT THE
LATEST AS FORCING DIMINISHES. EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW STRATUS
REMAINS OVER ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...IN ADDITION
TO BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WITH TIME FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE
STATE WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. LATEST NAM/HRRR INDICATES
LOW STRATUS DECK WILL ERODE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND OVER PORTIONS
OF MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS ARE DEPICTED TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

RESULTANT TEMPERATURES WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER WILL SEE
WARMEST READINGS SOUTHWEST WHERE CLEARING IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
WEAK WAA. CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL BE TEMPERED MORE WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT MUCH WARMER THAN THEY ARE
NOW...MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. ACROSS THE EAST...CAA NORTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE TEENS...LOW/MID 20S JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WHERE CLOUDS MAY ALSO LINGER AND ALSO MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE COLD SFC HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A RETURN TO NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC CHANCES
OF LIGHT SNOW HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN...WHILE THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINS HIGH WITH A LOW RELATIVE MEASURE OF
PREDICTABILITY IN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST 500 HPA HEIGHTS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. THUS A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WAS UTILIZED.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A GFS/ECMWF BLEND BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.

THE SECOND WAVE TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
WITH THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOOKING TO SEE THE BEST CHANCES OF
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
AND LOCATIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THESE CLIPPERS WOULD
BRING SUB-ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS. IF CURRENT FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS
HOLD...WE COULD BE CLOSE TO LOW ADVISORY 3 INCH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
SATURDAY. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH NEAR ADVISORY WIND CHILL
CRITERIA EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE OVER KMOT-
KJMS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR AREAWIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TM




000
FXUS63 KBIS 291817
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1217 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE BEING OBSERVED UNDER LOW CLOUDS OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTED THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE CLOUD
DECK BEGINS TO ERODE THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...ADDED SCATTERED
FLURRIES TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 848 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. OVERCAST SKIES
WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AS SATURATED STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES KEEP A LID ON VERTICAL MIXING. GRADUAL
CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS AN 850MB RIDGE
AXIS ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...USHERING IN RELATIVELY DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY
GIVEN THE ANTICYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES FROM THEIR CURRENT VALUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES OVER ALL BUT A PORTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CONTINUED
CLEARING HERE THIS MORNING...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE EAST AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATED MORNING SKY COVER. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND CLOUD
COVER/RESULTANT TEMPERATURES TODAY.

CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION. EMBEDDED S/WV MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITING NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES TO CREATE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAINLY
ALONG TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94...WHICH SHOULD END BY 12Z AT THE
LATEST AS FORCING DIMINISHES. EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW STRATUS
REMAINS OVER ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...IN ADDITION
TO BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WITH TIME FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE
STATE WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. LATEST NAM/HRRR INDICATES
LOW STRATUS DECK WILL ERODE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND OVER PORTIONS
OF MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS ARE DEPICTED TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

RESULTANT TEMPERATURES WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER WILL SEE
WARMEST READINGS SOUTHWEST WHERE CLEARING IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
WEAK WAA. CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL BE TEMPERED MORE WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT MUCH WARMER THAN THEY ARE
NOW...MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. ACROSS THE EAST...CAA NORTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE TEENS...LOW/MID 20S JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WHERE CLOUDS MAY ALSO LINGER AND ALSO MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE COLD SFC HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A RETURN TO NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC CHANCES
OF LIGHT SNOW HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN...WHILE THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINS HIGH WITH A LOW RELATIVE MEASURE OF
PREDICTABILITY IN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST 500 HPA HEIGHTS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. THUS A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WAS UTILIZED.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A GFS/ECMWF BLEND BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.

THE SECOND WAVE TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
WITH THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOOKING TO SEE THE BEST CHANCES OF
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
AND LOCATIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THESE CLIPPERS WOULD
BRING SUB-ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS. IF CURRENT FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS
HOLD...WE COULD BE CLOSE TO LOW ADVISORY 3 INCH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
SATURDAY. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH NEAR ADVISORY WIND CHILL
CRITERIA EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE OVER KMOT-
KJMS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR AREAWIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KFGF 291540
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS MORNING AND THEN SFC RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL TODAY. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE...MAINLY FOLLOWING 925MB-850MB RH WHICH
LOOKS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. COLD AIR ADVECTION
FLURRIES HAVE SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN FA...AND ADDED FLURRY
MENTION TO MOST AREAS. ANTICIPATE FLURRIES WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN
END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AND SFC RIDGING BUILDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES. EXCEPT
FOR THE SATURDAY SYSTEM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL
MODEL PREFERENCE.

WILL END ZR HEADLINES AT FORECAST ISSUANCE. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. NO PCPN CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED BY OBS AND RADAR CLEAR. COLD
ADVECTION LEVELS OFF THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER MODELS SEEM A LITTLE
TOO QUICK IN DECREASING CLOUDS SO TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL BE MINIMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN THIS EVENING. WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
RETURN FLOW AFT MIDNIGHT SHOULD SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP FROM VALLEY WEST.

WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH WEAK WAVE. WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST MILD DAY
FOR A WHILE AS COLUMN WARMS PRIOR TO CFP FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING SHARP COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MODELS DIFFER ON SNOW POTENTIAL SATURDAY. GFS/ECMWF CLIP THE
SOUTHERN FA WITH -SN WHILE NAM/GEM FARTHER NORTH. WITH
UNCERTAINTY LEFT CURRENT POPS AS IS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN. MEAN JET POSITION WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...A WEAK WAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR -SN...WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD REMAINING
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEY WILL EXPAND TO
MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL STILL SEE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
THROUGH GOOD PART OF THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KBIS 291448
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
848 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. OVERCAST SKIES
WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AS SATURATED STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES KEEP A LID ON VERTICAL MIXING. GRADUAL
CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS AN 850MB RIDGE
AXIS ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...USHERING IN RELATIVELY DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY
GIVEN THE ANTICYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES FROM THEIR CURRENT VALUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES OVER ALL BUT A PORTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CONTINUED
CLEARING HERE THIS MORNING...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE EAST AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATED MORNING SKY COVER. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND CLOUD
COVER/RESULTANT TEMPERATURES TODAY.

CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION. EMBEDDED S/WV MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITING NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES TO CREATE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAINLY
ALONG TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94...WHICH SHOULD END BY 12Z AT THE
LATEST AS FORCING DIMINISHES. EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW STRATUS
REMAINS OVER ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...IN ADDITION
TO BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WITH TIME FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE
STATE WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. LATEST NAM/HRRR INDICATES
LOW STRATUS DECK WILL ERODE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND OVER PORTIONS
OF MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS ARE DEPICTED TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

RESULTANT TEMPERATURES WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER WILL SEE
WARMEST READINGS SOUTHWEST WHERE CLEARING IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
WEAK WAA. CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL BE TEMPERED MORE WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT MUCH WARMER THAN THEY ARE
NOW...MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. ACROSS THE EAST...CAA NORTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE TEENS...LOW/MID 20S JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WHERE CLOUDS MAY ALSO LINGER AND ALSO MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE COLD SFC HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A RETURN TO NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC CHANCES
OF LIGHT SNOW HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN...WHILE THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINS HIGH WITH A LOW RELATIVE MEASURE OF
PREDICTABILITY IN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST 500 HPA HEIGHTS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. THUS A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WAS UTILIZED.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A GFS/ECMWF BLEND BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.

THE SECOND WAVE TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
WITH THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOOKING TO SEE THE BEST CHANCES OF
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
AND LOCATIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THESE CLIPPERS WOULD
BRING SUB-ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS. IF CURRENT FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS
HOLD...WE COULD BE CLOSE TO LOW ADVISORY 3 INCH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
SATURDAY. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH NEAR ADVISORY WIND CHILL
CRITERIA EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT WILL START MID-MORNING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST FOR KDIK AND POSSIBLY EAST FOR KJMS.
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL TERMINALS...KISN-KBIS-KMOT...ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN STRATUS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN IMPROVEMENT
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH





000
FXUS63 KFGF 291249
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
649 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ADDED SOME FLURRIES TO NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES. EXCEPT
FOR THE SATURDAY SYSTEM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL
MODEL PREFERENCE.

WILL END ZR HEADLINES AT FORECAST ISSUANCE. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. NO PCPN CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED BY OBS AND RADAR CLEAR. COLD
ADVECTION LEVELS OFF THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER MODELS SEEM A LITTLE
TOO QUICK IN DECREASING CLOUDS SO TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL BE MINIMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN THIS EVENING. WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
RETURN FLOW AFT MIDNIGHT SHOULD SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP FROM VALLEY WEST.

WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH WEAK WAVE. WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST MILD DAY
FOR A WHILE AS COLUMN WARMS PRIOR TO CFP FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING SHARP COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MODELS DIFFER ON SNOW POTENTIAL SATURDAY. GFS/ECMWF CLIP THE
SOUTHERN FA WITH -SN WHILE NAM/GEM FARTHER NORTH. WITH
UNCERTAINTY LEFT CURRENT POPS AS IS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN. MEAN JET POSITION WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...A WEAK WAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR -SN...WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD REMAINING
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEY WILL EXPAND TO
MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL STILL SEE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
THROUGH GOOD PART OF THE DAY

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 291249
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
649 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ADDED SOME FLURRIES TO NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES. EXCEPT
FOR THE SATURDAY SYSTEM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL
MODEL PREFERENCE.

WILL END ZR HEADLINES AT FORECAST ISSUANCE. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. NO PCPN CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED BY OBS AND RADAR CLEAR. COLD
ADVECTION LEVELS OFF THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER MODELS SEEM A LITTLE
TOO QUICK IN DECREASING CLOUDS SO TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL BE MINIMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN THIS EVENING. WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
RETURN FLOW AFT MIDNIGHT SHOULD SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP FROM VALLEY WEST.

WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH WEAK WAVE. WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST MILD DAY
FOR A WHILE AS COLUMN WARMS PRIOR TO CFP FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING SHARP COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MODELS DIFFER ON SNOW POTENTIAL SATURDAY. GFS/ECMWF CLIP THE
SOUTHERN FA WITH -SN WHILE NAM/GEM FARTHER NORTH. WITH
UNCERTAINTY LEFT CURRENT POPS AS IS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN. MEAN JET POSITION WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...A WEAK WAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR -SN...WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD REMAINING
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEY WILL EXPAND TO
MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL STILL SEE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
THROUGH GOOD PART OF THE DAY

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 291249
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
649 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ADDED SOME FLURRIES TO NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES. EXCEPT
FOR THE SATURDAY SYSTEM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL
MODEL PREFERENCE.

WILL END ZR HEADLINES AT FORECAST ISSUANCE. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. NO PCPN CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED BY OBS AND RADAR CLEAR. COLD
ADVECTION LEVELS OFF THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER MODELS SEEM A LITTLE
TOO QUICK IN DECREASING CLOUDS SO TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL BE MINIMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN THIS EVENING. WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
RETURN FLOW AFT MIDNIGHT SHOULD SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP FROM VALLEY WEST.

WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH WEAK WAVE. WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST MILD DAY
FOR A WHILE AS COLUMN WARMS PRIOR TO CFP FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING SHARP COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MODELS DIFFER ON SNOW POTENTIAL SATURDAY. GFS/ECMWF CLIP THE
SOUTHERN FA WITH -SN WHILE NAM/GEM FARTHER NORTH. WITH
UNCERTAINTY LEFT CURRENT POPS AS IS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN. MEAN JET POSITION WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...A WEAK WAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR -SN...WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD REMAINING
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEY WILL EXPAND TO
MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL STILL SEE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
THROUGH GOOD PART OF THE DAY

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 291249
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
649 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ADDED SOME FLURRIES TO NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES. EXCEPT
FOR THE SATURDAY SYSTEM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL
MODEL PREFERENCE.

WILL END ZR HEADLINES AT FORECAST ISSUANCE. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. NO PCPN CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED BY OBS AND RADAR CLEAR. COLD
ADVECTION LEVELS OFF THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER MODELS SEEM A LITTLE
TOO QUICK IN DECREASING CLOUDS SO TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL BE MINIMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN THIS EVENING. WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
RETURN FLOW AFT MIDNIGHT SHOULD SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP FROM VALLEY WEST.

WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH WEAK WAVE. WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST MILD DAY
FOR A WHILE AS COLUMN WARMS PRIOR TO CFP FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING SHARP COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MODELS DIFFER ON SNOW POTENTIAL SATURDAY. GFS/ECMWF CLIP THE
SOUTHERN FA WITH -SN WHILE NAM/GEM FARTHER NORTH. WITH
UNCERTAINTY LEFT CURRENT POPS AS IS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN. MEAN JET POSITION WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...A WEAK WAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR -SN...WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD REMAINING
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEY WILL EXPAND TO
MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL STILL SEE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
THROUGH GOOD PART OF THE DAY

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KBIS 291231
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
631 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES OVER ALL BUT A PORTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CONTINUED
CLEARING HERE THIS MORNING...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE EAST AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATED MORNING SKY COVER. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND CLOUD
COVER/RESULTANT TEMPERATURES TODAY.

CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION. EMBEDDED S/WV MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITING NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES TO CREATE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAINLY
ALONG TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94...WHICH SHOULD END BY 12Z AT THE
LATEST AS FORCING DIMINISHES. EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW STRATUS
REMAINS OVER ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...IN ADDITION
TO BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WITH TIME FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE
STATE WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. LATEST NAM/HRRR INDICATES
LOW STRATUS DECK WILL ERODE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND OVER PORTIONS
OF MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS ARE DEPICTED TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

RESULTANT TEMPERATURES WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER WILL SEE
WARMEST READINGS SOUTHWEST WHERE CLEARING IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
WEAK WAA. CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL BE TEMPERED MORE WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT MUCH WARMER THAN THEY ARE
NOW...MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. ACROSS THE EAST...CAA NORTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE TEENS...LOW/MID 20S JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WHERE CLOUDS MAY ALSO LINGER AND ALSO MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE COLD SFC HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A RETURN TO NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC CHANCES
OF LIGHT SNOW HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN...WHILE THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINS HIGH WITH A LOW RELATIVE MEASURE OF
PREDICTABILITY IN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST 500 HPA HEIGHTS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. THUS A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WAS UTILIZED.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A GFS/ECMWF BLEND BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.

THE SECOND WAVE TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
WITH THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOOKING TO SEE THE BEST CHANCES OF
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
AND LOCATIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THESE CLIPPERS WOULD
BRING SUB-ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS. IF CURRENT FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS
HOLD...WE COULD BE CLOSE TO LOW ADVISORY 3 INCH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
SATURDAY. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH NEAR ADVISORY WIND CHILL
CRITERIA EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT WILL START MID-MORNING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST FOR KDIK AND POSSIBLY EAST FOR KJMS.
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL TERMINALS...KISN-KBIS-KMOT...ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN STRATUS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN IMPROVEMENT
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 291231
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
631 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES OVER ALL BUT A PORTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CONTINUED
CLEARING HERE THIS MORNING...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE EAST AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATED MORNING SKY COVER. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND CLOUD
COVER/RESULTANT TEMPERATURES TODAY.

CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION. EMBEDDED S/WV MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITING NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES TO CREATE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAINLY
ALONG TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94...WHICH SHOULD END BY 12Z AT THE
LATEST AS FORCING DIMINISHES. EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW STRATUS
REMAINS OVER ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...IN ADDITION
TO BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WITH TIME FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE
STATE WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. LATEST NAM/HRRR INDICATES
LOW STRATUS DECK WILL ERODE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND OVER PORTIONS
OF MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS ARE DEPICTED TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

RESULTANT TEMPERATURES WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER WILL SEE
WARMEST READINGS SOUTHWEST WHERE CLEARING IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
WEAK WAA. CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL BE TEMPERED MORE WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT MUCH WARMER THAN THEY ARE
NOW...MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. ACROSS THE EAST...CAA NORTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE TEENS...LOW/MID 20S JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WHERE CLOUDS MAY ALSO LINGER AND ALSO MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE COLD SFC HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A RETURN TO NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC CHANCES
OF LIGHT SNOW HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN...WHILE THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINS HIGH WITH A LOW RELATIVE MEASURE OF
PREDICTABILITY IN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST 500 HPA HEIGHTS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. THUS A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WAS UTILIZED.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A GFS/ECMWF BLEND BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.

THE SECOND WAVE TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
WITH THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOOKING TO SEE THE BEST CHANCES OF
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
AND LOCATIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THESE CLIPPERS WOULD
BRING SUB-ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS. IF CURRENT FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS
HOLD...WE COULD BE CLOSE TO LOW ADVISORY 3 INCH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
SATURDAY. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH NEAR ADVISORY WIND CHILL
CRITERIA EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT WILL START MID-MORNING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST FOR KDIK AND POSSIBLY EAST FOR KJMS.
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL TERMINALS...KISN-KBIS-KMOT...ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN STRATUS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN IMPROVEMENT
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 291231
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
631 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES OVER ALL BUT A PORTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CONTINUED
CLEARING HERE THIS MORNING...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE EAST AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATED MORNING SKY COVER. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND CLOUD
COVER/RESULTANT TEMPERATURES TODAY.

CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION. EMBEDDED S/WV MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITING NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES TO CREATE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAINLY
ALONG TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94...WHICH SHOULD END BY 12Z AT THE
LATEST AS FORCING DIMINISHES. EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW STRATUS
REMAINS OVER ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...IN ADDITION
TO BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WITH TIME FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE
STATE WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. LATEST NAM/HRRR INDICATES
LOW STRATUS DECK WILL ERODE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND OVER PORTIONS
OF MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS ARE DEPICTED TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

RESULTANT TEMPERATURES WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER WILL SEE
WARMEST READINGS SOUTHWEST WHERE CLEARING IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
WEAK WAA. CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL BE TEMPERED MORE WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT MUCH WARMER THAN THEY ARE
NOW...MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. ACROSS THE EAST...CAA NORTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE TEENS...LOW/MID 20S JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WHERE CLOUDS MAY ALSO LINGER AND ALSO MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE COLD SFC HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A RETURN TO NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC CHANCES
OF LIGHT SNOW HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN...WHILE THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINS HIGH WITH A LOW RELATIVE MEASURE OF
PREDICTABILITY IN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST 500 HPA HEIGHTS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. THUS A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WAS UTILIZED.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A GFS/ECMWF BLEND BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.

THE SECOND WAVE TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
WITH THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOOKING TO SEE THE BEST CHANCES OF
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
AND LOCATIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THESE CLIPPERS WOULD
BRING SUB-ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS. IF CURRENT FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS
HOLD...WE COULD BE CLOSE TO LOW ADVISORY 3 INCH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
SATURDAY. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH NEAR ADVISORY WIND CHILL
CRITERIA EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT WILL START MID-MORNING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST FOR KDIK AND POSSIBLY EAST FOR KJMS.
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL TERMINALS...KISN-KBIS-KMOT...ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN STRATUS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN IMPROVEMENT
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 291231
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
631 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES OVER ALL BUT A PORTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CONTINUED
CLEARING HERE THIS MORNING...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE EAST AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATED MORNING SKY COVER. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND CLOUD
COVER/RESULTANT TEMPERATURES TODAY.

CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION. EMBEDDED S/WV MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITING NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES TO CREATE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAINLY
ALONG TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94...WHICH SHOULD END BY 12Z AT THE
LATEST AS FORCING DIMINISHES. EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW STRATUS
REMAINS OVER ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...IN ADDITION
TO BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WITH TIME FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE
STATE WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. LATEST NAM/HRRR INDICATES
LOW STRATUS DECK WILL ERODE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND OVER PORTIONS
OF MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS ARE DEPICTED TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

RESULTANT TEMPERATURES WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER WILL SEE
WARMEST READINGS SOUTHWEST WHERE CLEARING IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
WEAK WAA. CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL BE TEMPERED MORE WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT MUCH WARMER THAN THEY ARE
NOW...MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. ACROSS THE EAST...CAA NORTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE TEENS...LOW/MID 20S JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WHERE CLOUDS MAY ALSO LINGER AND ALSO MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE COLD SFC HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A RETURN TO NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC CHANCES
OF LIGHT SNOW HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN...WHILE THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINS HIGH WITH A LOW RELATIVE MEASURE OF
PREDICTABILITY IN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST 500 HPA HEIGHTS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. THUS A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WAS UTILIZED.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A GFS/ECMWF BLEND BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.

THE SECOND WAVE TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
WITH THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOOKING TO SEE THE BEST CHANCES OF
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
AND LOCATIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THESE CLIPPERS WOULD
BRING SUB-ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS. IF CURRENT FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS
HOLD...WE COULD BE CLOSE TO LOW ADVISORY 3 INCH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
SATURDAY. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH NEAR ADVISORY WIND CHILL
CRITERIA EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT WILL START MID-MORNING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST FOR KDIK AND POSSIBLY EAST FOR KJMS.
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL TERMINALS...KISN-KBIS-KMOT...ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN STRATUS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN IMPROVEMENT
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH






000
FXUS63 KFGF 290904
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
304 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES. EXCEPT
FOR THE SATURDAY SYSTEM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL
MODEL PREFERENCE.

WILL END ZR HEADLINES AT FORECAST ISSUANCE. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. NO PCPN CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED BY OBS AND RADAR CLEAR. COLD
ADVECTION LEVELS OFF THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER MODELS SEEM A LITTLE
TOO QUICK IN DECREASING CLOUDS SO TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL BE MINIMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN THIS EVENING. WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
RETURN FLOW AFT MIDNIGHT SHOULD SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP FROM VALLEY WEST.

WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH WEAK WAVE. WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST MILD DAY
FOR A WHILE AS COLUMN WARMS PRIOR TO CFP FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING SHARP COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MODELS DIFFER ON SNOW POTENTIAL SATURDAY. GFS/ECMWF CLIP THE
SOUTHERN FA WITH -SN WHILE NAM/GEM FARTHER NORTH. WITH
UNCERTAINTY LEFT CURRENT POPS AS IS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN. MEAN JET POSITION WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...A WEAK WAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR -SN...WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD REMAINING
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CIGS AT KDVL AND KGFK HAVE GONE UP TO MVFR A BIT SOONER THAN
EXPECTED. OTHER SITES REMAIN IFR OF LOWER AND KTVF AND KBJI
CONTINUE TO REPORT SOME BR IN THE 3 TO 5 RANGE. THINK THAT
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. SPED UP THE IMPROVEMENT A BIT AND HAVE ALL SITES
BUT KBJI MVFR BY 09Z AND EVENTUALLY VFR CONDITIONS MOVING IN BY
MORNING AS THE CLOUD DECKS SEEM TO BE HIGHER UPSTREAM IN CANADA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BREEZY FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.

MN...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 290904
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
304 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES. EXCEPT
FOR THE SATURDAY SYSTEM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL
MODEL PREFERENCE.

WILL END ZR HEADLINES AT FORECAST ISSUANCE. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. NO PCPN CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED BY OBS AND RADAR CLEAR. COLD
ADVECTION LEVELS OFF THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER MODELS SEEM A LITTLE
TOO QUICK IN DECREASING CLOUDS SO TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL BE MINIMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN THIS EVENING. WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
RETURN FLOW AFT MIDNIGHT SHOULD SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP FROM VALLEY WEST.

WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH WEAK WAVE. WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST MILD DAY
FOR A WHILE AS COLUMN WARMS PRIOR TO CFP FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING SHARP COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MODELS DIFFER ON SNOW POTENTIAL SATURDAY. GFS/ECMWF CLIP THE
SOUTHERN FA WITH -SN WHILE NAM/GEM FARTHER NORTH. WITH
UNCERTAINTY LEFT CURRENT POPS AS IS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN. MEAN JET POSITION WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...A WEAK WAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR -SN...WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD REMAINING
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CIGS AT KDVL AND KGFK HAVE GONE UP TO MVFR A BIT SOONER THAN
EXPECTED. OTHER SITES REMAIN IFR OF LOWER AND KTVF AND KBJI
CONTINUE TO REPORT SOME BR IN THE 3 TO 5 RANGE. THINK THAT
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. SPED UP THE IMPROVEMENT A BIT AND HAVE ALL SITES
BUT KBJI MVFR BY 09Z AND EVENTUALLY VFR CONDITIONS MOVING IN BY
MORNING AS THE CLOUD DECKS SEEM TO BE HIGHER UPSTREAM IN CANADA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BREEZY FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.

MN...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 290904
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
304 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES. EXCEPT
FOR THE SATURDAY SYSTEM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL
MODEL PREFERENCE.

WILL END ZR HEADLINES AT FORECAST ISSUANCE. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. NO PCPN CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED BY OBS AND RADAR CLEAR. COLD
ADVECTION LEVELS OFF THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER MODELS SEEM A LITTLE
TOO QUICK IN DECREASING CLOUDS SO TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL BE MINIMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN THIS EVENING. WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
RETURN FLOW AFT MIDNIGHT SHOULD SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP FROM VALLEY WEST.

WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH WEAK WAVE. WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST MILD DAY
FOR A WHILE AS COLUMN WARMS PRIOR TO CFP FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING SHARP COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MODELS DIFFER ON SNOW POTENTIAL SATURDAY. GFS/ECMWF CLIP THE
SOUTHERN FA WITH -SN WHILE NAM/GEM FARTHER NORTH. WITH
UNCERTAINTY LEFT CURRENT POPS AS IS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN. MEAN JET POSITION WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...A WEAK WAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR -SN...WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD REMAINING
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CIGS AT KDVL AND KGFK HAVE GONE UP TO MVFR A BIT SOONER THAN
EXPECTED. OTHER SITES REMAIN IFR OF LOWER AND KTVF AND KBJI
CONTINUE TO REPORT SOME BR IN THE 3 TO 5 RANGE. THINK THAT
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. SPED UP THE IMPROVEMENT A BIT AND HAVE ALL SITES
BUT KBJI MVFR BY 09Z AND EVENTUALLY VFR CONDITIONS MOVING IN BY
MORNING AS THE CLOUD DECKS SEEM TO BE HIGHER UPSTREAM IN CANADA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BREEZY FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.

MN...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 290904
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
304 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES. EXCEPT
FOR THE SATURDAY SYSTEM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL
MODEL PREFERENCE.

WILL END ZR HEADLINES AT FORECAST ISSUANCE. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. NO PCPN CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED BY OBS AND RADAR CLEAR. COLD
ADVECTION LEVELS OFF THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER MODELS SEEM A LITTLE
TOO QUICK IN DECREASING CLOUDS SO TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL BE MINIMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN THIS EVENING. WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
RETURN FLOW AFT MIDNIGHT SHOULD SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP FROM VALLEY WEST.

WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH WEAK WAVE. WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST MILD DAY
FOR A WHILE AS COLUMN WARMS PRIOR TO CFP FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING SHARP COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MODELS DIFFER ON SNOW POTENTIAL SATURDAY. GFS/ECMWF CLIP THE
SOUTHERN FA WITH -SN WHILE NAM/GEM FARTHER NORTH. WITH
UNCERTAINTY LEFT CURRENT POPS AS IS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN. MEAN JET POSITION WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...A WEAK WAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR -SN...WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD REMAINING
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CIGS AT KDVL AND KGFK HAVE GONE UP TO MVFR A BIT SOONER THAN
EXPECTED. OTHER SITES REMAIN IFR OF LOWER AND KTVF AND KBJI
CONTINUE TO REPORT SOME BR IN THE 3 TO 5 RANGE. THINK THAT
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. SPED UP THE IMPROVEMENT A BIT AND HAVE ALL SITES
BUT KBJI MVFR BY 09Z AND EVENTUALLY VFR CONDITIONS MOVING IN BY
MORNING AS THE CLOUD DECKS SEEM TO BE HIGHER UPSTREAM IN CANADA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BREEZY FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.

MN...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KBIS 290900
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND CLOUD
COVER/RESULTANT TEMPERATURES TODAY.

CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION. EMBEDDED S/WV MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITING NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES TO CREATE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAINLY
ALONG TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94...WHICH SHOULD END BY 12Z AT THE
LATEST AS FORCING DIMINISHES. EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW STRATUS
REMAINS OVER ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...IN ADDITION
TO BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WITH TIME FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE
STATE WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. LATEST NAM/HRRR INDICATES
LOW STRATUS DECK WILL ERODE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND OVER PORTIONS
OF MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS ARE DEPICTED TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

RESULTANT TEMPERATURES WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER WILL SEE
WARMEST READINGS SOUTHWEST WHERE CLEARING IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
WEAK WAA. CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL BE TEMPERED MORE WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT MUCH WARMER THAN THEY ARE
NOW...MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. ACROSS THE EAST...CAA NORTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE TEENS...LOW/MID 20S JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WHERE CLOUDS MAY ALSO LINGER AND ALSO MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE COLD SFC HIGH.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A RETURN TO NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC CHANCES
OF LIGHT SNOW HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN...WHILE THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINS HIGH WITH A LOW RELATIVE MEASURE OF
PREDICTABILITY IN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST 500 HPA HEIGHTS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. THUS A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WAS UTILIZED.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A GFS/ECMWF BLEND BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.

THE SECOND WAVE TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
WITH THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOOKING TO SEE THE BEST CHANCES OF
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
AND LOCATIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THESE CLIPPERS WOULD
BRING SUB-ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS. IF CURRENT FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS
HOLD...WE COULD BE CLOSE TO LOW ADVISORY 3 INCH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
SATURDAY. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH NEAR ADVISORY WIND CHILL
CRITERIA EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT WILL START MID-MORNING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST FOR KDIK AND POSSIBLY EAST FOR KJMS.
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL TERMINALS...KISN-KBIS-KMOT...ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN STRATUS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN IMPROVEMENT
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 290642
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1242 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH...LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING...WILL CONTINUE
OFF TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THUS REMOVED PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH...AND SCALED BACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ELSEWHERE THROUGH 12Z.

SKY COVER WAS INCREASED THURSDAY WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST A
TAD HASTY IN DECREASING SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST NAM/HRRR
BOUNDARY LAYER RH FIELDS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL. STRATUS SHOULD
ERODE SOUTHWEST AND EAST TOMORROW. ALL OTHER GRID ELEMENTS ON
TRACK.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
FILTER THROUGH THE AREA. STILL EXPECT SOME SPOTS OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE SO WILL CONTINUE THAT IN FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE SPREAD PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. A FEW AREA WEBCAMS
SHOWING SOME GLAZE...AND A SPOTTER REPORT NEAR GRASSY BUTTE HAS
INDICATED SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS OF NOW THE 12 UTC MODELS
POINT TO MORE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE
TO NO ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS. FOR NOW COVERAGE IS PATCHY AND WILL
PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

OTHERWISE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST WHERE GUSTS WERE NEAR 40
MPH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME SEE NO REASON FOR ANY
WIND HEADLINES AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PLACES THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. CLIPPERS ARE PROJECTED
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND TUESDAY...PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS...HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT WILL START MID-MORNING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST FOR KDIK AND EAST FOR KJMS. NORTHWEST
AND CENTRAL TERMINALS...KISN-KBIS-KMOT...ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN STRATUS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN IMPROVEMENT LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...NH






000
FXUS63 KFGF 290546
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

DRIER AIR MOVING IN HAS ALLOWED THE DZ AND BR REPORTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MN AND NORTHEASTERN ND TO DISAPPEAR...AND
CIGS IN THOSE AREAS HAVE COME UP TO OVER 1000 FT. GIVEN THE HIGHER
CLOUD DECK AND LACK OF ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VIS THINK THAT FZDZ IS
LIKELY FINISHED AT THOSE LOCATIONS. TRIMMED THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY...BUT KEPT THE SOUTH AND EAST
AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE LOWER CLOUDS AND BR HANGING AROUND TO
PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT ICING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ASOS AT GFK HAS FZDZ ENDING...BUT GIVEN SOME SCATTERED ICING
REPORTS ON ND DOT SITE JUST WEST OF TOWN WILL HANG ONTO THE
ADVISORY JUST A BIT LONGER. FURTHER SOUTH...KFAR AND KPKD HAVE ICE
ACCRETION OBS...AND LOWER VIS AND DRIZZLE REPORTS HAVE CONTINUED
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY AS IT
IS FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 806 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE BEEN GETTING SOME REPORTS OF MORE FZDZ AND SOME LIGHT
FZRA...SO UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD THROUGH 4 AM CST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AND VIS
HAVE BEEN IMPROVING. THERE STILL IS SOME FZDZ/LIGHT FZRA AHEAD OF
THE DRYING AND THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS IN SOUTHERN BELTAMI
COUNTY OF A BIT OF ICE ON TREES AND ROADS. THINK THIS WILL NOT
LAST LONG...BUT SPOTTY SLICK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE
TEMPERATURE FALLS AND MOISTURE FREEZES EVEN AFTER PRECIP ENDS.
WILL PUT OUT AN SPS ABOUT SLICK ROADS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF KENORA AT MID AFTERNOON MOVING EAST.
WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHWEST OVER ERN ND AND DOING SO CURRENTLY IN
THE RRV AND WILL DO SO IN THE REST OF NW/WCNTRL MN EARLY THIS EVE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES IF ANY PRECIP FALLS. IT WILL GET BREEZY-WINDY AS
WELL. THURSDAY CLOUD COVER IS A TOUGH CALL. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING...BUT HAVE BEEN FOOLED BEFORE. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING THU
NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT LIGHT WINDS IN THU EVE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A GOOD TEMP DROP ESP NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AND SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY. STILL SLIGHT RISK OF A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION FRI AFTN-EVE. A FRESH
SUPPLY OF COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE FRI SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY AS WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURN. A LOW RISK OF LIGHT
SNOW EXISTS FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
CANADIAN GEM MODEL OVERDONE WITH PRECIP AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND
DISCOUNTED FOR NOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER
PATTERN...EXCEPT THAT THIS REGION WILL BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ANTICIPATE FAST MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT COULD
PROVIDE -SN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH MOST PERIODS SHOULD BE DRY WITH SFC
RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURE VALUES NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CIGS AT KDVL AND KGFK HAVE GONE UP TO MVFR A BIT SOONER THAN
EXPECTED. OTHER SITES REMAIN IFR OF LOWER AND KTVF AND KBJI
CONTINUE TO REPORT SOME BR IN THE 3 TO 5 RANGE. THINK THAT
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. SPED UP THE IMPROVEMENT A BIT AND HAVE ALL SITES
BUT KBJI MVFR BY 09Z AND EVENTUALLY VFR CONDITIONS MOVING IN BY
MORNING AS THE CLOUD DECKS SEEM TO BE HIGHER UPSTREAM IN CANADA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BREEZY FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ039-053.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>003-
     009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 290546
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

DRIER AIR MOVING IN HAS ALLOWED THE DZ AND BR REPORTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MN AND NORTHEASTERN ND TO DISAPPEAR...AND
CIGS IN THOSE AREAS HAVE COME UP TO OVER 1000 FT. GIVEN THE HIGHER
CLOUD DECK AND LACK OF ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VIS THINK THAT FZDZ IS
LIKELY FINISHED AT THOSE LOCATIONS. TRIMMED THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY...BUT KEPT THE SOUTH AND EAST
AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE LOWER CLOUDS AND BR HANGING AROUND TO
PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT ICING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ASOS AT GFK HAS FZDZ ENDING...BUT GIVEN SOME SCATTERED ICING
REPORTS ON ND DOT SITE JUST WEST OF TOWN WILL HANG ONTO THE
ADVISORY JUST A BIT LONGER. FURTHER SOUTH...KFAR AND KPKD HAVE ICE
ACCRETION OBS...AND LOWER VIS AND DRIZZLE REPORTS HAVE CONTINUED
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY AS IT
IS FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 806 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE BEEN GETTING SOME REPORTS OF MORE FZDZ AND SOME LIGHT
FZRA...SO UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD THROUGH 4 AM CST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AND VIS
HAVE BEEN IMPROVING. THERE STILL IS SOME FZDZ/LIGHT FZRA AHEAD OF
THE DRYING AND THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS IN SOUTHERN BELTAMI
COUNTY OF A BIT OF ICE ON TREES AND ROADS. THINK THIS WILL NOT
LAST LONG...BUT SPOTTY SLICK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE
TEMPERATURE FALLS AND MOISTURE FREEZES EVEN AFTER PRECIP ENDS.
WILL PUT OUT AN SPS ABOUT SLICK ROADS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF KENORA AT MID AFTERNOON MOVING EAST.
WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHWEST OVER ERN ND AND DOING SO CURRENTLY IN
THE RRV AND WILL DO SO IN THE REST OF NW/WCNTRL MN EARLY THIS EVE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES IF ANY PRECIP FALLS. IT WILL GET BREEZY-WINDY AS
WELL. THURSDAY CLOUD COVER IS A TOUGH CALL. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING...BUT HAVE BEEN FOOLED BEFORE. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING THU
NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT LIGHT WINDS IN THU EVE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A GOOD TEMP DROP ESP NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AND SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY. STILL SLIGHT RISK OF A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION FRI AFTN-EVE. A FRESH
SUPPLY OF COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE FRI SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY AS WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURN. A LOW RISK OF LIGHT
SNOW EXISTS FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
CANADIAN GEM MODEL OVERDONE WITH PRECIP AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND
DISCOUNTED FOR NOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER
PATTERN...EXCEPT THAT THIS REGION WILL BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ANTICIPATE FAST MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT COULD
PROVIDE -SN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH MOST PERIODS SHOULD BE DRY WITH SFC
RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURE VALUES NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CIGS AT KDVL AND KGFK HAVE GONE UP TO MVFR A BIT SOONER THAN
EXPECTED. OTHER SITES REMAIN IFR OF LOWER AND KTVF AND KBJI
CONTINUE TO REPORT SOME BR IN THE 3 TO 5 RANGE. THINK THAT
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. SPED UP THE IMPROVEMENT A BIT AND HAVE ALL SITES
BUT KBJI MVFR BY 09Z AND EVENTUALLY VFR CONDITIONS MOVING IN BY
MORNING AS THE CLOUD DECKS SEEM TO BE HIGHER UPSTREAM IN CANADA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BREEZY FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ039-053.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>003-
     009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 290348
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
948 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ASOS AT GFK HAS FZDZ ENDING...BUT GIVEN SOME SCATTERED ICING
REPORTS ON ND DOT SITE JUST WEST OF TOWN WILL HANG ONTO THE
ADVISORY JUST A BIT LONGER. FURTHER SOUTH...KFAR AND KPKD HAVE ICE
ACCRETION OBS...AND LOWER VIS AND DRIZZLE REPORTS HAVE CONTINUED
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY AS IT
IS FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 806 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE BEEN GETTING SOME REPORTS OF MORE FZDZ AND SOME LIGHT
FZRA...SO UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD THROUGH 4 AM CST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AND VIS
HAVE BEEN IMPROVING. THERE STILL IS SOME FZDZ/LIGHT FZRA AHEAD OF
THE DRYING AND THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS IN SOUTHERN BELTAMI
COUNTY OF A BIT OF ICE ON TREES AND ROADS. THINK THIS WILL NOT
LAST LONG...BUT SPOTTY SLICK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE
TEMPERATURE FALLS AND MOISTURE FREEZES EVEN AFTER PRECIP ENDS.
WILL PUT OUT AN SPS ABOUT SLICK ROADS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF KENORA AT MID AFTERNOON MOVING EAST.
WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHWEST OVER ERN ND AND DOING SO CURRENTLY IN
THE RRV AND WILL DO SO IN THE REST OF NW/WCNTRL MN EARLY THIS EVE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES IF ANY PRECIP FALLS. IT WILL GET BREEZY-WINDY AS
WELL. THURSDAY CLOUD COVER IS A TOUGH CALL. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING...BUT HAVE BEEN FOOLED BEFORE. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING THU
NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT LIGHT WINDS IN THU EVE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A GOOD TEMP DROP ESP NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AND SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY. STILL SLIGHT RISK OF A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION FRI AFTN-EVE. A FRESH
SUPPLY OF COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE FRI SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY AS WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURN. A LOW RISK OF LIGHT
SNOW EXISTS FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
CANADIAN GEM MODEL OVERDONE WITH PRECIP AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND
DISCOUNTED FOR NOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER
PATTERN...EXCEPT THAT THIS REGION WILL BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ANTICIPATE FAST MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT COULD
PROVIDE -SN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH MOST PERIODS SHOULD BE DRY WITH SFC
RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURE VALUES NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...AND VIS
HAVE IMPROVED AT KDVL AND KGFK...ALTHOUGH THE SITES FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST HAVE STAYED IN THE 1-5SM RANGE. THINK THOSE SHOULD
IMPROVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE LONGER
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND QUITE BREEZY...WITH
SUSTAINED NEAR 20 AND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. THE COLDER
AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THINK THAT
CIGS WILL LIFT BACK UP TO MVFR BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ016-027-
     030-039-053.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>003-
     005>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 290348
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
948 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ASOS AT GFK HAS FZDZ ENDING...BUT GIVEN SOME SCATTERED ICING
REPORTS ON ND DOT SITE JUST WEST OF TOWN WILL HANG ONTO THE
ADVISORY JUST A BIT LONGER. FURTHER SOUTH...KFAR AND KPKD HAVE ICE
ACCRETION OBS...AND LOWER VIS AND DRIZZLE REPORTS HAVE CONTINUED
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY AS IT
IS FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 806 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE BEEN GETTING SOME REPORTS OF MORE FZDZ AND SOME LIGHT
FZRA...SO UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD THROUGH 4 AM CST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AND VIS
HAVE BEEN IMPROVING. THERE STILL IS SOME FZDZ/LIGHT FZRA AHEAD OF
THE DRYING AND THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS IN SOUTHERN BELTAMI
COUNTY OF A BIT OF ICE ON TREES AND ROADS. THINK THIS WILL NOT
LAST LONG...BUT SPOTTY SLICK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE
TEMPERATURE FALLS AND MOISTURE FREEZES EVEN AFTER PRECIP ENDS.
WILL PUT OUT AN SPS ABOUT SLICK ROADS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF KENORA AT MID AFTERNOON MOVING EAST.
WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHWEST OVER ERN ND AND DOING SO CURRENTLY IN
THE RRV AND WILL DO SO IN THE REST OF NW/WCNTRL MN EARLY THIS EVE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES IF ANY PRECIP FALLS. IT WILL GET BREEZY-WINDY AS
WELL. THURSDAY CLOUD COVER IS A TOUGH CALL. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING...BUT HAVE BEEN FOOLED BEFORE. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING THU
NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT LIGHT WINDS IN THU EVE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A GOOD TEMP DROP ESP NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AND SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY. STILL SLIGHT RISK OF A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION FRI AFTN-EVE. A FRESH
SUPPLY OF COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE FRI SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY AS WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURN. A LOW RISK OF LIGHT
SNOW EXISTS FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
CANADIAN GEM MODEL OVERDONE WITH PRECIP AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND
DISCOUNTED FOR NOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER
PATTERN...EXCEPT THAT THIS REGION WILL BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ANTICIPATE FAST MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT COULD
PROVIDE -SN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH MOST PERIODS SHOULD BE DRY WITH SFC
RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURE VALUES NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...AND VIS
HAVE IMPROVED AT KDVL AND KGFK...ALTHOUGH THE SITES FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST HAVE STAYED IN THE 1-5SM RANGE. THINK THOSE SHOULD
IMPROVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE LONGER
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND QUITE BREEZY...WITH
SUSTAINED NEAR 20 AND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. THE COLDER
AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THINK THAT
CIGS WILL LIFT BACK UP TO MVFR BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ016-027-
     030-039-053.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>003-
     005>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KBIS 290329
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
929 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
FILTER THROUGH THE AREA. STILL EXPECT SOME SPOTS OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE SO WILL CONTINUE THAT IN FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE SPREAD PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. A FEW AREA WEBCAMS
SHOWING SOME GLAZE...AND A SPOTTER REPORT NEAR GRASSY BUTTE HAS
INDICATED SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS OF NOW THE 12 UTC MODELS
POINT TO MORE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE
TO NO ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS. FOR NOW COVERAGE IS PATCHY AND WILL
PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

OTHERWISE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST WHERE GUSTS WERE NEAR 40
MPH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME SEE NO REASON FOR ANY
WIND HEADLINES AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PLACES THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. CLIPPERS ARE PROJECTED
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND TUESDAY...PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS...HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT STARTING MID-MORNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY. LCL -FZDZ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 290329
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
929 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
FILTER THROUGH THE AREA. STILL EXPECT SOME SPOTS OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE SO WILL CONTINUE THAT IN FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE SPREAD PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. A FEW AREA WEBCAMS
SHOWING SOME GLAZE...AND A SPOTTER REPORT NEAR GRASSY BUTTE HAS
INDICATED SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS OF NOW THE 12 UTC MODELS
POINT TO MORE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE
TO NO ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS. FOR NOW COVERAGE IS PATCHY AND WILL
PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

OTHERWISE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST WHERE GUSTS WERE NEAR 40
MPH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME SEE NO REASON FOR ANY
WIND HEADLINES AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PLACES THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. CLIPPERS ARE PROJECTED
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND TUESDAY...PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS...HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT STARTING MID-MORNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY. LCL -FZDZ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 290206
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
806 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 806 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE BEEN GETTING SOME REPORTS OF MORE FZDZ AND SOME LIGHT
FZRA...SO UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD THROUGH 4 AM CST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AND VIS
HAVE BEEN IMPROVING. THERE STILL IS SOME FZDZ/LIGHT FZRA AHEAD OF
THE DRYING AND THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS IN SOUTHERN BELTAMI
COUNTY OF A BIT OF ICE ON TREES AND ROADS. THINK THIS WILL NOT
LAST LONG...BUT SPOTTY SLICK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE
TEMPERATURE FALLS AND MOISTURE FREEZES EVEN AFTER PRECIP ENDS.
WILL PUT OUT AN SPS ABOUT SLICK ROADS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF KENORA AT MID AFTERNOON MOVING EAST.
WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHWEST OVER ERN ND AND DOING SO CURRENTLY IN
THE RRV AND WILL DO SO IN THE REST OF NW/WCNTRL MN EARLY THIS EVE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES IF ANY PRECIP FALLS. IT WILL GET BREEZY-WINDY AS
WELL. THURSDAY CLOUD COVER IS A TOUGH CALL. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING...BUT HAVE BEEN FOOLED BEFORE. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING THU
NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT LIGHT WINDS IN THU EVE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A GOOD TEMP DROP ESP NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AND SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY. STILL SLIGHT RISK OF A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION FRI AFTN-EVE. A FRESH
SUPPLY OF COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE FRI SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY AS WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURN. A LOW RISK OF LIGHT
SNOW EXISTS FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
CANADIAN GEM MODEL OVERDONE WITH PRECIP AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND
DISCOUNTED FOR NOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER
PATTERN...EXCEPT THAT THIS REGION WILL BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ANTICIPATE FAST MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT COULD
PROVIDE -SN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH MOST PERIODS SHOULD BE DRY WITH SFC
RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURE VALUES NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...AND VIS
HAVE IMPROVED AT KDVL AND KGFK...ALTHOUGH THE SITES FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST HAVE STAYED IN THE 1-5SM RANGE. THINK THOSE SHOULD
IMPROVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE LONGER
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND QUITE BREEZY...WITH
SUSTAINED NEAR 20 AND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. THE COLDER
AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THINK THAT
CIGS WILL LIFT BACK UP TO MVFR BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ016-027-
     030-039-053.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>003-
     005>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 290206
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
806 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 806 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE BEEN GETTING SOME REPORTS OF MORE FZDZ AND SOME LIGHT
FZRA...SO UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD THROUGH 4 AM CST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AND VIS
HAVE BEEN IMPROVING. THERE STILL IS SOME FZDZ/LIGHT FZRA AHEAD OF
THE DRYING AND THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS IN SOUTHERN BELTAMI
COUNTY OF A BIT OF ICE ON TREES AND ROADS. THINK THIS WILL NOT
LAST LONG...BUT SPOTTY SLICK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE
TEMPERATURE FALLS AND MOISTURE FREEZES EVEN AFTER PRECIP ENDS.
WILL PUT OUT AN SPS ABOUT SLICK ROADS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF KENORA AT MID AFTERNOON MOVING EAST.
WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHWEST OVER ERN ND AND DOING SO CURRENTLY IN
THE RRV AND WILL DO SO IN THE REST OF NW/WCNTRL MN EARLY THIS EVE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES IF ANY PRECIP FALLS. IT WILL GET BREEZY-WINDY AS
WELL. THURSDAY CLOUD COVER IS A TOUGH CALL. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING...BUT HAVE BEEN FOOLED BEFORE. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING THU
NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT LIGHT WINDS IN THU EVE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A GOOD TEMP DROP ESP NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AND SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY. STILL SLIGHT RISK OF A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION FRI AFTN-EVE. A FRESH
SUPPLY OF COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE FRI SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY AS WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURN. A LOW RISK OF LIGHT
SNOW EXISTS FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
CANADIAN GEM MODEL OVERDONE WITH PRECIP AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND
DISCOUNTED FOR NOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER
PATTERN...EXCEPT THAT THIS REGION WILL BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ANTICIPATE FAST MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT COULD
PROVIDE -SN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH MOST PERIODS SHOULD BE DRY WITH SFC
RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURE VALUES NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...AND VIS
HAVE IMPROVED AT KDVL AND KGFK...ALTHOUGH THE SITES FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST HAVE STAYED IN THE 1-5SM RANGE. THINK THOSE SHOULD
IMPROVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE LONGER
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND QUITE BREEZY...WITH
SUSTAINED NEAR 20 AND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. THE COLDER
AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THINK THAT
CIGS WILL LIFT BACK UP TO MVFR BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ016-027-
     030-039-053.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>003-
     005>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 290042
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
642 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AND VIS
HAVE BEEN IMPROVING. THERE STILL IS SOME FZDZ/LIGHT FZRA AHEAD OF
THE DRYING AND THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS IN SOUTHERN BELTAMI
COUNTY OF A BIT OF ICE ON TREES AND ROADS. THINK THIS WILL NOT
LAST LONG...BUT SPOTTY SLICK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE
TEMPERATURE FALLS AND MOISTURE FREEZES EVEN AFTER PRECIP ENDS.
WILL PUT OUT AN SPS ABOUT SLICK ROADS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF KENORA AT MID AFTERNOON MOVING EAST.
WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHWEST OVER ERN ND AND DOING SO CURRENTLY IN
THE RRV AND WILL DO SO IN THE REST OF NW/WCNTRL MN EARLY THIS EVE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES IF ANY PRECIP FALLS. IT WILL GET BREEZY-WINDY AS
WELL. THURSDAY CLOUD COVER IS A TOUGH CALL. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING...BUT HAVE BEEN FOOLED BEFORE. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING THU
NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT LIGHT WINDS IN THU EVE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A GOOD TEMP DROP ESP NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AND SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY. STILL SLIGHT RISK OF A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION FRI AFTN-EVE. A FRESH
SUPPLY OF COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE FRI SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY AS WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURN. A LOW RISK OF LIGHT
SNOW EXISTS FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
CANADIAN GEM MODEL OVERDONE WITH PRECIP AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND
DISCOUNTED FOR NOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER
PATTERN...EXCEPT THAT THIS REGION WILL BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ANTICIPATE FAST MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT COULD
PROVIDE -SN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH MOST PERIODS SHOULD BE DRY WITH SFC
RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURE VALUES NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...AND VIS
HAVE IMPROVED AT KDVL AND KGFK...ALTHOUGH THE SITES FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST HAVE STAYED IN THE 1-5SM RANGE. THINK THOSE SHOULD
IMPROVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE LONGER
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND QUITE BREEZY...WITH
SUSTAINED NEAR 20 AND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. THE COLDER
AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THINK THAT
CIGS WILL LIFT BACK UP TO MVFR BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 290042
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
642 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AND VIS
HAVE BEEN IMPROVING. THERE STILL IS SOME FZDZ/LIGHT FZRA AHEAD OF
THE DRYING AND THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS IN SOUTHERN BELTAMI
COUNTY OF A BIT OF ICE ON TREES AND ROADS. THINK THIS WILL NOT
LAST LONG...BUT SPOTTY SLICK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE
TEMPERATURE FALLS AND MOISTURE FREEZES EVEN AFTER PRECIP ENDS.
WILL PUT OUT AN SPS ABOUT SLICK ROADS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF KENORA AT MID AFTERNOON MOVING EAST.
WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHWEST OVER ERN ND AND DOING SO CURRENTLY IN
THE RRV AND WILL DO SO IN THE REST OF NW/WCNTRL MN EARLY THIS EVE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES IF ANY PRECIP FALLS. IT WILL GET BREEZY-WINDY AS
WELL. THURSDAY CLOUD COVER IS A TOUGH CALL. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING...BUT HAVE BEEN FOOLED BEFORE. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING THU
NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT LIGHT WINDS IN THU EVE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A GOOD TEMP DROP ESP NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AND SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY. STILL SLIGHT RISK OF A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION FRI AFTN-EVE. A FRESH
SUPPLY OF COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE FRI SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY AS WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURN. A LOW RISK OF LIGHT
SNOW EXISTS FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
CANADIAN GEM MODEL OVERDONE WITH PRECIP AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND
DISCOUNTED FOR NOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER
PATTERN...EXCEPT THAT THIS REGION WILL BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ANTICIPATE FAST MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT COULD
PROVIDE -SN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH MOST PERIODS SHOULD BE DRY WITH SFC
RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURE VALUES NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...AND VIS
HAVE IMPROVED AT KDVL AND KGFK...ALTHOUGH THE SITES FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST HAVE STAYED IN THE 1-5SM RANGE. THINK THOSE SHOULD
IMPROVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE LONGER
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND QUITE BREEZY...WITH
SUSTAINED NEAR 20 AND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. THE COLDER
AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THINK THAT
CIGS WILL LIFT BACK UP TO MVFR BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 290042
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
642 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AND VIS
HAVE BEEN IMPROVING. THERE STILL IS SOME FZDZ/LIGHT FZRA AHEAD OF
THE DRYING AND THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS IN SOUTHERN BELTAMI
COUNTY OF A BIT OF ICE ON TREES AND ROADS. THINK THIS WILL NOT
LAST LONG...BUT SPOTTY SLICK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE
TEMPERATURE FALLS AND MOISTURE FREEZES EVEN AFTER PRECIP ENDS.
WILL PUT OUT AN SPS ABOUT SLICK ROADS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF KENORA AT MID AFTERNOON MOVING EAST.
WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHWEST OVER ERN ND AND DOING SO CURRENTLY IN
THE RRV AND WILL DO SO IN THE REST OF NW/WCNTRL MN EARLY THIS EVE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES IF ANY PRECIP FALLS. IT WILL GET BREEZY-WINDY AS
WELL. THURSDAY CLOUD COVER IS A TOUGH CALL. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING...BUT HAVE BEEN FOOLED BEFORE. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING THU
NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT LIGHT WINDS IN THU EVE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A GOOD TEMP DROP ESP NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AND SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY. STILL SLIGHT RISK OF A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION FRI AFTN-EVE. A FRESH
SUPPLY OF COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE FRI SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY AS WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURN. A LOW RISK OF LIGHT
SNOW EXISTS FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
CANADIAN GEM MODEL OVERDONE WITH PRECIP AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND
DISCOUNTED FOR NOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER
PATTERN...EXCEPT THAT THIS REGION WILL BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ANTICIPATE FAST MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT COULD
PROVIDE -SN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH MOST PERIODS SHOULD BE DRY WITH SFC
RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURE VALUES NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...AND VIS
HAVE IMPROVED AT KDVL AND KGFK...ALTHOUGH THE SITES FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST HAVE STAYED IN THE 1-5SM RANGE. THINK THOSE SHOULD
IMPROVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE LONGER
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND QUITE BREEZY...WITH
SUSTAINED NEAR 20 AND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. THE COLDER
AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THINK THAT
CIGS WILL LIFT BACK UP TO MVFR BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 290042
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
642 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AND VIS
HAVE BEEN IMPROVING. THERE STILL IS SOME FZDZ/LIGHT FZRA AHEAD OF
THE DRYING AND THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS IN SOUTHERN BELTAMI
COUNTY OF A BIT OF ICE ON TREES AND ROADS. THINK THIS WILL NOT
LAST LONG...BUT SPOTTY SLICK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE
TEMPERATURE FALLS AND MOISTURE FREEZES EVEN AFTER PRECIP ENDS.
WILL PUT OUT AN SPS ABOUT SLICK ROADS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF KENORA AT MID AFTERNOON MOVING EAST.
WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHWEST OVER ERN ND AND DOING SO CURRENTLY IN
THE RRV AND WILL DO SO IN THE REST OF NW/WCNTRL MN EARLY THIS EVE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES IF ANY PRECIP FALLS. IT WILL GET BREEZY-WINDY AS
WELL. THURSDAY CLOUD COVER IS A TOUGH CALL. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING...BUT HAVE BEEN FOOLED BEFORE. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING THU
NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT LIGHT WINDS IN THU EVE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A GOOD TEMP DROP ESP NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AND SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY. STILL SLIGHT RISK OF A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION FRI AFTN-EVE. A FRESH
SUPPLY OF COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE FRI SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY AS WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURN. A LOW RISK OF LIGHT
SNOW EXISTS FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
CANADIAN GEM MODEL OVERDONE WITH PRECIP AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND
DISCOUNTED FOR NOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER
PATTERN...EXCEPT THAT THIS REGION WILL BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ANTICIPATE FAST MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT COULD
PROVIDE -SN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH MOST PERIODS SHOULD BE DRY WITH SFC
RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURE VALUES NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...AND VIS
HAVE IMPROVED AT KDVL AND KGFK...ALTHOUGH THE SITES FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST HAVE STAYED IN THE 1-5SM RANGE. THINK THOSE SHOULD
IMPROVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE LONGER
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND QUITE BREEZY...WITH
SUSTAINED NEAR 20 AND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. THE COLDER
AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THINK THAT
CIGS WILL LIFT BACK UP TO MVFR BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 290042
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
642 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AND VIS
HAVE BEEN IMPROVING. THERE STILL IS SOME FZDZ/LIGHT FZRA AHEAD OF
THE DRYING AND THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS IN SOUTHERN BELTAMI
COUNTY OF A BIT OF ICE ON TREES AND ROADS. THINK THIS WILL NOT
LAST LONG...BUT SPOTTY SLICK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE
TEMPERATURE FALLS AND MOISTURE FREEZES EVEN AFTER PRECIP ENDS.
WILL PUT OUT AN SPS ABOUT SLICK ROADS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF KENORA AT MID AFTERNOON MOVING EAST.
WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHWEST OVER ERN ND AND DOING SO CURRENTLY IN
THE RRV AND WILL DO SO IN THE REST OF NW/WCNTRL MN EARLY THIS EVE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES IF ANY PRECIP FALLS. IT WILL GET BREEZY-WINDY AS
WELL. THURSDAY CLOUD COVER IS A TOUGH CALL. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING...BUT HAVE BEEN FOOLED BEFORE. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING THU
NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT LIGHT WINDS IN THU EVE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A GOOD TEMP DROP ESP NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AND SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY. STILL SLIGHT RISK OF A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION FRI AFTN-EVE. A FRESH
SUPPLY OF COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE FRI SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY AS WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURN. A LOW RISK OF LIGHT
SNOW EXISTS FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
CANADIAN GEM MODEL OVERDONE WITH PRECIP AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND
DISCOUNTED FOR NOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER
PATTERN...EXCEPT THAT THIS REGION WILL BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ANTICIPATE FAST MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT COULD
PROVIDE -SN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH MOST PERIODS SHOULD BE DRY WITH SFC
RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURE VALUES NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...AND VIS
HAVE IMPROVED AT KDVL AND KGFK...ALTHOUGH THE SITES FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST HAVE STAYED IN THE 1-5SM RANGE. THINK THOSE SHOULD
IMPROVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE LONGER
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND QUITE BREEZY...WITH
SUSTAINED NEAR 20 AND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. THE COLDER
AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THINK THAT
CIGS WILL LIFT BACK UP TO MVFR BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 290042
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
642 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AND VIS
HAVE BEEN IMPROVING. THERE STILL IS SOME FZDZ/LIGHT FZRA AHEAD OF
THE DRYING AND THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS IN SOUTHERN BELTAMI
COUNTY OF A BIT OF ICE ON TREES AND ROADS. THINK THIS WILL NOT
LAST LONG...BUT SPOTTY SLICK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE
TEMPERATURE FALLS AND MOISTURE FREEZES EVEN AFTER PRECIP ENDS.
WILL PUT OUT AN SPS ABOUT SLICK ROADS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF KENORA AT MID AFTERNOON MOVING EAST.
WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHWEST OVER ERN ND AND DOING SO CURRENTLY IN
THE RRV AND WILL DO SO IN THE REST OF NW/WCNTRL MN EARLY THIS EVE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES IF ANY PRECIP FALLS. IT WILL GET BREEZY-WINDY AS
WELL. THURSDAY CLOUD COVER IS A TOUGH CALL. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING...BUT HAVE BEEN FOOLED BEFORE. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING THU
NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT LIGHT WINDS IN THU EVE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A GOOD TEMP DROP ESP NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AND SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY. STILL SLIGHT RISK OF A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION FRI AFTN-EVE. A FRESH
SUPPLY OF COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE FRI SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY AS WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURN. A LOW RISK OF LIGHT
SNOW EXISTS FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
CANADIAN GEM MODEL OVERDONE WITH PRECIP AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND
DISCOUNTED FOR NOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER
PATTERN...EXCEPT THAT THIS REGION WILL BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ANTICIPATE FAST MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT COULD
PROVIDE -SN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH MOST PERIODS SHOULD BE DRY WITH SFC
RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURE VALUES NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...AND VIS
HAVE IMPROVED AT KDVL AND KGFK...ALTHOUGH THE SITES FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST HAVE STAYED IN THE 1-5SM RANGE. THINK THOSE SHOULD
IMPROVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE LONGER
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND QUITE BREEZY...WITH
SUSTAINED NEAR 20 AND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. THE COLDER
AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THINK THAT
CIGS WILL LIFT BACK UP TO MVFR BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KBIS 290028
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
628 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE SPREAD PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. A FEW AREA WEBCAMS
SHOWING SOME GLAZE...AND A SPOTTER REPORT NEAR GRASSY BUTTE HAS
INDICATED SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS OF NOW THE 12 UTC MODELS
POINT TO MORE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE
TO NO ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS. FOR NOW COVERAGE IS PATCHY AND WILL
PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

OTHERWISE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST WHERE GUSTS WERE NEAR 40
MPH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME SEE NO REASON FOR ANY
WIND HEADLINES AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PLACES THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. CLIPPERS ARE PROJECTED
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND TUESDAY...PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS...HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT STARTING MID-MORNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY. LCL -FZDZ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 290028
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
628 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE SPREAD PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. A FEW AREA WEBCAMS
SHOWING SOME GLAZE...AND A SPOTTER REPORT NEAR GRASSY BUTTE HAS
INDICATED SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS OF NOW THE 12 UTC MODELS
POINT TO MORE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE
TO NO ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS. FOR NOW COVERAGE IS PATCHY AND WILL
PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

OTHERWISE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST WHERE GUSTS WERE NEAR 40
MPH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME SEE NO REASON FOR ANY
WIND HEADLINES AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PLACES THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. CLIPPERS ARE PROJECTED
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND TUESDAY...PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS...HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT STARTING MID-MORNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY. LCL -FZDZ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 290028
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
628 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE SPREAD PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. A FEW AREA WEBCAMS
SHOWING SOME GLAZE...AND A SPOTTER REPORT NEAR GRASSY BUTTE HAS
INDICATED SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS OF NOW THE 12 UTC MODELS
POINT TO MORE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE
TO NO ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS. FOR NOW COVERAGE IS PATCHY AND WILL
PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

OTHERWISE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST WHERE GUSTS WERE NEAR 40
MPH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME SEE NO REASON FOR ANY
WIND HEADLINES AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PLACES THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. CLIPPERS ARE PROJECTED
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND TUESDAY...PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS...HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT STARTING MID-MORNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY. LCL -FZDZ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 290028
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
628 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE SPREAD PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. A FEW AREA WEBCAMS
SHOWING SOME GLAZE...AND A SPOTTER REPORT NEAR GRASSY BUTTE HAS
INDICATED SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS OF NOW THE 12 UTC MODELS
POINT TO MORE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE
TO NO ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS. FOR NOW COVERAGE IS PATCHY AND WILL
PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

OTHERWISE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST WHERE GUSTS WERE NEAR 40
MPH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME SEE NO REASON FOR ANY
WIND HEADLINES AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PLACES THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. CLIPPERS ARE PROJECTED
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND TUESDAY...PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS...HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT STARTING MID-MORNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY. LCL -FZDZ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 290028
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
628 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE SPREAD PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. A FEW AREA WEBCAMS
SHOWING SOME GLAZE...AND A SPOTTER REPORT NEAR GRASSY BUTTE HAS
INDICATED SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS OF NOW THE 12 UTC MODELS
POINT TO MORE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE
TO NO ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS. FOR NOW COVERAGE IS PATCHY AND WILL
PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

OTHERWISE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST WHERE GUSTS WERE NEAR 40
MPH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME SEE NO REASON FOR ANY
WIND HEADLINES AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PLACES THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. CLIPPERS ARE PROJECTED
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND TUESDAY...PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS...HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT STARTING MID-MORNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY. LCL -FZDZ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 282135
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
335 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF KENORA AT MID AFTERNOON MOVING EAST.
WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHWEST OVER ERN ND AND DOING SO CURRENTLY IN
THE RRV AND WILL DO SO IN THE REST OF NW/WCNTRL MN EARLY THIS EVE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES IF ANY PRECIP FALLS. IT WILL GET BREEZY-WINDY AS
WELL. THURSDAY CLOUD COVER IS A TOUGH CALL. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING...BUT HAVE BEEN FOOLED BEFORE. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING THU
NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT LIGHT WINDS IN THU EVE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A GOOD TEMP DROP ESP NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AND SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY. STILL SLIGHT RISK OF A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION FRI AFTN-EVE. A FRESH
SUPPLY OF COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE FRI SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY AS WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURN. A LOW RISK OF LIGHT
SNOW EXISTS FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
CANADIAN GEM MODEL OVERDONE WITH PRECIP AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND
DISCOUNTED FOR NOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER
PATTERN...EXCEPT THAT THIS REGION WILL BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ANTICIPATE FAST MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT COULD
PROVIDE -SN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH MOST PERIODS SHOULD BE DRY WITH SFC
RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURE VALUES NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL MAINTAIN LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT WILL WAIT
FOR MORE CONFIDENCE BEFORE INTRODUCING THIS PARAMETER TO THE
AVIATION FORECAST. THE PROBABILITY FOR IMPROVEMENT WILL EXIST
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE WITH THESE IMPROVEMENT
DETAILS IS LOW. COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...GUSTY AT TIMES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 282135
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
335 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF KENORA AT MID AFTERNOON MOVING EAST.
WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHWEST OVER ERN ND AND DOING SO CURRENTLY IN
THE RRV AND WILL DO SO IN THE REST OF NW/WCNTRL MN EARLY THIS EVE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES IF ANY PRECIP FALLS. IT WILL GET BREEZY-WINDY AS
WELL. THURSDAY CLOUD COVER IS A TOUGH CALL. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING...BUT HAVE BEEN FOOLED BEFORE. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING THU
NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT LIGHT WINDS IN THU EVE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A GOOD TEMP DROP ESP NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AND SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY. STILL SLIGHT RISK OF A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION FRI AFTN-EVE. A FRESH
SUPPLY OF COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE FRI SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY AS WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURN. A LOW RISK OF LIGHT
SNOW EXISTS FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
CANADIAN GEM MODEL OVERDONE WITH PRECIP AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND
DISCOUNTED FOR NOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER
PATTERN...EXCEPT THAT THIS REGION WILL BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ANTICIPATE FAST MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT COULD
PROVIDE -SN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH MOST PERIODS SHOULD BE DRY WITH SFC
RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURE VALUES NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL MAINTAIN LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT WILL WAIT
FOR MORE CONFIDENCE BEFORE INTRODUCING THIS PARAMETER TO THE
AVIATION FORECAST. THE PROBABILITY FOR IMPROVEMENT WILL EXIST
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE WITH THESE IMPROVEMENT
DETAILS IS LOW. COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...GUSTY AT TIMES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 282135
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
335 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF KENORA AT MID AFTERNOON MOVING EAST.
WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHWEST OVER ERN ND AND DOING SO CURRENTLY IN
THE RRV AND WILL DO SO IN THE REST OF NW/WCNTRL MN EARLY THIS EVE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES IF ANY PRECIP FALLS. IT WILL GET BREEZY-WINDY AS
WELL. THURSDAY CLOUD COVER IS A TOUGH CALL. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING...BUT HAVE BEEN FOOLED BEFORE. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING THU
NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT LIGHT WINDS IN THU EVE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A GOOD TEMP DROP ESP NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AND SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY. STILL SLIGHT RISK OF A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION FRI AFTN-EVE. A FRESH
SUPPLY OF COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE FRI SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY AS WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURN. A LOW RISK OF LIGHT
SNOW EXISTS FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
CANADIAN GEM MODEL OVERDONE WITH PRECIP AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND
DISCOUNTED FOR NOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER
PATTERN...EXCEPT THAT THIS REGION WILL BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ANTICIPATE FAST MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT COULD
PROVIDE -SN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH MOST PERIODS SHOULD BE DRY WITH SFC
RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURE VALUES NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL MAINTAIN LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT WILL WAIT
FOR MORE CONFIDENCE BEFORE INTRODUCING THIS PARAMETER TO THE
AVIATION FORECAST. THE PROBABILITY FOR IMPROVEMENT WILL EXIST
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE WITH THESE IMPROVEMENT
DETAILS IS LOW. COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...GUSTY AT TIMES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 282135
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
335 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF KENORA AT MID AFTERNOON MOVING EAST.
WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHWEST OVER ERN ND AND DOING SO CURRENTLY IN
THE RRV AND WILL DO SO IN THE REST OF NW/WCNTRL MN EARLY THIS EVE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES IF ANY PRECIP FALLS. IT WILL GET BREEZY-WINDY AS
WELL. THURSDAY CLOUD COVER IS A TOUGH CALL. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING...BUT HAVE BEEN FOOLED BEFORE. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING THU
NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT LIGHT WINDS IN THU EVE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A GOOD TEMP DROP ESP NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AND SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY. STILL SLIGHT RISK OF A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION FRI AFTN-EVE. A FRESH
SUPPLY OF COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE FRI SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY AS WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURN. A LOW RISK OF LIGHT
SNOW EXISTS FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
CANADIAN GEM MODEL OVERDONE WITH PRECIP AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND
DISCOUNTED FOR NOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER
PATTERN...EXCEPT THAT THIS REGION WILL BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ANTICIPATE FAST MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT COULD
PROVIDE -SN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH MOST PERIODS SHOULD BE DRY WITH SFC
RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURE VALUES NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL MAINTAIN LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT WILL WAIT
FOR MORE CONFIDENCE BEFORE INTRODUCING THIS PARAMETER TO THE
AVIATION FORECAST. THE PROBABILITY FOR IMPROVEMENT WILL EXIST
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE WITH THESE IMPROVEMENT
DETAILS IS LOW. COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...GUSTY AT TIMES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KBIS 282052
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS OF NOW THE 12 UTC MODELS
POINT TO MORE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE
TO NO ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS. FOR NOW COVERAGE IS PATCHY AND WILL
PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

OTHERWISE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST WHERE GUSTS WERE NEAR 40
MPH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME SEE NO REASON FOR ANY
WIND HEADLINES AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PLACES THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. CLIPPERS ARE PROJECTED
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND TUESDAY...PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS...HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIFR TO IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS IN
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. TOOK OUT THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM
TAFS AS PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL MORE LIKELY BE FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR SIMPLY DRIZZLE...HOWEVER IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND PATCHY
ACROSS THE REGION THUS HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH BR IN THE TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...MM








000
FXUS63 KBIS 282052
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS OF NOW THE 12 UTC MODELS
POINT TO MORE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE
TO NO ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS. FOR NOW COVERAGE IS PATCHY AND WILL
PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

OTHERWISE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST WHERE GUSTS WERE NEAR 40
MPH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME SEE NO REASON FOR ANY
WIND HEADLINES AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PLACES THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. CLIPPERS ARE PROJECTED
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND TUESDAY...PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS...HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIFR TO IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS IN
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. TOOK OUT THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM
TAFS AS PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL MORE LIKELY BE FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR SIMPLY DRIZZLE...HOWEVER IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND PATCHY
ACROSS THE REGION THUS HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH BR IN THE TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...MM








000
FXUS63 KBIS 282052
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS OF NOW THE 12 UTC MODELS
POINT TO MORE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE
TO NO ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS. FOR NOW COVERAGE IS PATCHY AND WILL
PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

OTHERWISE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST WHERE GUSTS WERE NEAR 40
MPH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME SEE NO REASON FOR ANY
WIND HEADLINES AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PLACES THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. CLIPPERS ARE PROJECTED
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND TUESDAY...PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS...HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIFR TO IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS IN
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. TOOK OUT THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM
TAFS AS PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL MORE LIKELY BE FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR SIMPLY DRIZZLE...HOWEVER IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND PATCHY
ACROSS THE REGION THUS HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH BR IN THE TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...MM








000
FXUS63 KBIS 282052
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS OF NOW THE 12 UTC MODELS
POINT TO MORE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE
TO NO ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS. FOR NOW COVERAGE IS PATCHY AND WILL
PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

OTHERWISE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST WHERE GUSTS WERE NEAR 40
MPH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME SEE NO REASON FOR ANY
WIND HEADLINES AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PLACES THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. CLIPPERS ARE PROJECTED
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND TUESDAY...PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS...HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIFR TO IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS IN
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. TOOK OUT THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM
TAFS AS PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL MORE LIKELY BE FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR SIMPLY DRIZZLE...HOWEVER IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND PATCHY
ACROSS THE REGION THUS HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH BR IN THE TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...MM








000
FXUS63 KFGF 281900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
100 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LET DENSE FOG ADV EXPIRE AT NOON AFTER COORD WITH BISMARCK. STILL
AREAS OF FOG AROUND AND SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL
MAINTAIN THIS IN THE GRIDS. CHC OF ANY -SN APPEARS LOW AS MOISTURE
IS LOW LEVELS AND NOT ENOUGH IN THE ICE LAYER FOR SNOWFLAKES.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IN THE NEAR TERM DENSE FOG CONTINUES FROM DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY. GUIDANCE HOLDS VSBY DOWN THROUGH THE AM SO
HAVE ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

SHORT WAVE OF CONCERN ENTERING WESTERN SASK WILL PROPAGATE ESE
AFFECTING FA LATER TODAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MAIN CORE
OF PCPN NORTH OF CANADIAN BORDER. GFS WHICH IS FARTHEST SOUTH WITH
DEVELOPING PCPN REALLY DOES NOT BRING LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS SOUTH OF INTERNATIONAL BORDER TIL CLOSE TO 00Z THEN EXITS
FA TO THE EAST AT 06Z. WITH LACK OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW COVERAGE WITH THE SYSTEM. MAINTAINED HIGHEST
POPS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA OF NW MN. OVERALL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WHICH DO OCCUR SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH
CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION MINIMAL TEMPERATURE RECOVERY EXPECTED.

EXPECT ANY SNOW TO END QUICKLY LATE EVENING AS WAVE PUSHES EAST.
THINK MIXING AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
OFF TOO FAR.

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY SO AGAIN THERMAL RECOVERY WILL
BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT. CLEARING...LIGHT
WINDS AND COLDER COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF CLOSE
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. WARM ADVECTION AND RETURN FLOW MAY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OFF AFT MIDNIGHT FROM VALLEY WEST.

KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE. SHOULD SEE SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WITH WARMER COLUMN
AND NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. GOOD
PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL START
DOWNWARD SLIDE OF TEMPERATURES.

FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP COOLER WEATHER OVER THE AREA.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE RIDGE
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST. RETURN FLOW
BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PCPN AND
A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL MAINTAIN LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT WILL WAIT
FOR MORE CONFIDENCE BEFORE INTRODUCING THIS PARAMETER TO THE
AVIATION FORECAST. THE PROBABILITY FOR IMPROVEMENT WILL EXIST
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE WITH THESE IMPROVEMENT
DETAILS IS LOW. COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...GUSTY AT TIMES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 281900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
100 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LET DENSE FOG ADV EXPIRE AT NOON AFTER COORD WITH BISMARCK. STILL
AREAS OF FOG AROUND AND SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL
MAINTAIN THIS IN THE GRIDS. CHC OF ANY -SN APPEARS LOW AS MOISTURE
IS LOW LEVELS AND NOT ENOUGH IN THE ICE LAYER FOR SNOWFLAKES.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IN THE NEAR TERM DENSE FOG CONTINUES FROM DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY. GUIDANCE HOLDS VSBY DOWN THROUGH THE AM SO
HAVE ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

SHORT WAVE OF CONCERN ENTERING WESTERN SASK WILL PROPAGATE ESE
AFFECTING FA LATER TODAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MAIN CORE
OF PCPN NORTH OF CANADIAN BORDER. GFS WHICH IS FARTHEST SOUTH WITH
DEVELOPING PCPN REALLY DOES NOT BRING LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS SOUTH OF INTERNATIONAL BORDER TIL CLOSE TO 00Z THEN EXITS
FA TO THE EAST AT 06Z. WITH LACK OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW COVERAGE WITH THE SYSTEM. MAINTAINED HIGHEST
POPS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA OF NW MN. OVERALL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WHICH DO OCCUR SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH
CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION MINIMAL TEMPERATURE RECOVERY EXPECTED.

EXPECT ANY SNOW TO END QUICKLY LATE EVENING AS WAVE PUSHES EAST.
THINK MIXING AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
OFF TOO FAR.

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY SO AGAIN THERMAL RECOVERY WILL
BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT. CLEARING...LIGHT
WINDS AND COLDER COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF CLOSE
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. WARM ADVECTION AND RETURN FLOW MAY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OFF AFT MIDNIGHT FROM VALLEY WEST.

KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE. SHOULD SEE SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WITH WARMER COLUMN
AND NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. GOOD
PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL START
DOWNWARD SLIDE OF TEMPERATURES.

FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP COOLER WEATHER OVER THE AREA.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE RIDGE
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST. RETURN FLOW
BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PCPN AND
A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL MAINTAIN LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT WILL WAIT
FOR MORE CONFIDENCE BEFORE INTRODUCING THIS PARAMETER TO THE
AVIATION FORECAST. THE PROBABILITY FOR IMPROVEMENT WILL EXIST
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE WITH THESE IMPROVEMENT
DETAILS IS LOW. COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...GUSTY AT TIMES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KBIS 281837
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
AS VISIBILITIES HAVE CONSISTENTLY IMPROVED. HAVE LEFT AREAS OF FOG
IN THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...WITH PATCHY MENTIONS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST.

INCREASED WINDS A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST...BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY WIND ADVISORY AS CRITERIA IS BORDERLINE AND THE HIGHEST
WIND SPEEDS DO NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTH
THROUGH 00 UTC. PROFILES SHOW A SATURATED LOWER LEVEL AND WITH
MOST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH
DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NO UPDATES OTHER THAN TO UPDATE TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST 6 AM
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

BASED ON TRENDS VIA OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL LEAN
ON HRRR GUIDANCE (WHICH IS DOING VERY WELL) AND EXPAND FOG
WORDING WEST AND SOUTH AND WILL ALSO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FARTHER WEST. ALSO EXTENDED TILL 18Z FOR HEADLINE CUTOFF.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST. OBSERVATIONS NOT GETTING
ANY BETTER AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING WORSE VISIBILITIES NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FOG AND CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED AT SITES KISN...KMOT...AND KJMS AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIFR TO IFR. FOR KBIS AND
KDIK LOWER CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR IFR CONDITIONS. TOOK
OUT THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM TAFS AS PRECIP TYPE WILL MORE LIKELY
BE FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SIMPLY DRIZZLE...HOWEVER IT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT AND PATCHY ACROSS THE REGION THUS HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH BR
IN THE TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...MM






000
FXUS63 KBIS 281837
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
AS VISIBILITIES HAVE CONSISTENTLY IMPROVED. HAVE LEFT AREAS OF FOG
IN THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...WITH PATCHY MENTIONS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST.

INCREASED WINDS A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST...BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY WIND ADVISORY AS CRITERIA IS BORDERLINE AND THE HIGHEST
WIND SPEEDS DO NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTH
THROUGH 00 UTC. PROFILES SHOW A SATURATED LOWER LEVEL AND WITH
MOST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH
DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NO UPDATES OTHER THAN TO UPDATE TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST 6 AM
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

BASED ON TRENDS VIA OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL LEAN
ON HRRR GUIDANCE (WHICH IS DOING VERY WELL) AND EXPAND FOG
WORDING WEST AND SOUTH AND WILL ALSO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FARTHER WEST. ALSO EXTENDED TILL 18Z FOR HEADLINE CUTOFF.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST. OBSERVATIONS NOT GETTING
ANY BETTER AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING WORSE VISIBILITIES NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FOG AND CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED AT SITES KISN...KMOT...AND KJMS AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIFR TO IFR. FOR KBIS AND
KDIK LOWER CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR IFR CONDITIONS. TOOK
OUT THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM TAFS AS PRECIP TYPE WILL MORE LIKELY
BE FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SIMPLY DRIZZLE...HOWEVER IT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT AND PATCHY ACROSS THE REGION THUS HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH BR
IN THE TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...MM







000
FXUS63 KBIS 281624
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1024 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTH
THROUGH 00 UTC. PROFILES SHOW A SATURATED LOWER LEVEL AND WITH
MOST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH
DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NO UPDATES OTHER THAN TO UPDATE TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST 6 AM
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

BASED ON TRENDS VIA OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL LEAN
ON HRRR GUIDANCE (WHICH IS DOING VERY WELL) AND EXPAND FOG
WORDING WEST AND SOUTH AND WILL ALSO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FARTHER WEST. ALSO EXTENDED TILL 18Z FOR HEADLINE CUTOFF.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST. OBSERVATIONS NOT GETTING
ANY BETTER AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING WORSE VISIBILITIES NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WIDESPREAD VLIFR CIGS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY TODAY AS
LOW STRATUS AND FOG EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. LOW
STRATUS WILL THEN HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIFT TO
LIFR/IFR MOST AREAS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
021>023-025-036-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 281624
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1024 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTH
THROUGH 00 UTC. PROFILES SHOW A SATURATED LOWER LEVEL AND WITH
MOST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH
DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NO UPDATES OTHER THAN TO UPDATE TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST 6 AM
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

BASED ON TRENDS VIA OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL LEAN
ON HRRR GUIDANCE (WHICH IS DOING VERY WELL) AND EXPAND FOG
WORDING WEST AND SOUTH AND WILL ALSO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FARTHER WEST. ALSO EXTENDED TILL 18Z FOR HEADLINE CUTOFF.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST. OBSERVATIONS NOT GETTING
ANY BETTER AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING WORSE VISIBILITIES NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WIDESPREAD VLIFR CIGS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY TODAY AS
LOW STRATUS AND FOG EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. LOW
STRATUS WILL THEN HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIFT TO
LIFR/IFR MOST AREAS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
021>023-025-036-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KFGF 281603
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1003 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TIL 18Z (NOON) TO MATCH WFO BIS. WILL
DECIDE IF NEEDED TO EXTEND. REPORTS ALSO OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
THE MINTO AREA SOUTH OF GRAFTON AND ALSO NEAR HALLOCK. ADDED FZDZ
THRU THE AFTN IN DVL BASIN/NRN RRV AS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DROPS
SOUTH AND COOLS AND CONTINUES TO MOISTEN THE LOWEST LAYERS WHILE
MID LAYERS ARE DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IN THE NEAR TERM DENSE FOG CONTINUES FROM DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY. GUIDANCE HOLDS VSBY DOWN THROUGH THE AM SO
HAVE ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

SHORT WAVE OF CONCERN ENTERING WESTERN SASK WILL PROPAGATE ESE
AFFECTING FA LATER TODAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MAIN CORE
OF PCPN NORTH OF CANADIAN BORDER. GFS WHICH IS FARTHEST SOUTH WITH
DEVELOPING PCPN REALLY DOES NOT BRING LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS SOUTH OF INTERNATIONAL BORDER TIL CLOSE TO 00Z THEN EXITS
FA TO THE EAST AT 06Z. WITH LACK OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW COVERAGE WITH THE SYSTEM. MAINTAINED HIGHEST
POPS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA OF NW MN. OVERALL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WHICH DO OCCUR SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH
CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION MINIMAL TEMPERATURE RECOVERY EXPECTED.

EXPECT ANY SNOW TO END QUICKLY LATE EVENING AS WAVE PUSHES EAST.
THINK MIXING AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
OFF TOO FAR.

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY SO AGAIN THERMAL RECOVERY WILL
BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT. CLEARING...LIGHT
WINDS AND COLDER COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF CLOSE
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. WARM ADVECTION AND RETURN FLOW MAY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OFF AFT MIDNIGHT FROM VALLEY WEST.

KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE. SHOULD SEE SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WITH WARMER COLUMN
AND NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. GOOD
PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL START
DOWNWARD SLIDE OF TEMPERATURES.

FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP COOLER WEATHER OVER THE AREA.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE RIDGE
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST. RETURN FLOW
BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PCPN AND
A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAINTAINED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE
COULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026-028-038-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 281603
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1003 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TIL 18Z (NOON) TO MATCH WFO BIS. WILL
DECIDE IF NEEDED TO EXTEND. REPORTS ALSO OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
THE MINTO AREA SOUTH OF GRAFTON AND ALSO NEAR HALLOCK. ADDED FZDZ
THRU THE AFTN IN DVL BASIN/NRN RRV AS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DROPS
SOUTH AND COOLS AND CONTINUES TO MOISTEN THE LOWEST LAYERS WHILE
MID LAYERS ARE DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IN THE NEAR TERM DENSE FOG CONTINUES FROM DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY. GUIDANCE HOLDS VSBY DOWN THROUGH THE AM SO
HAVE ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

SHORT WAVE OF CONCERN ENTERING WESTERN SASK WILL PROPAGATE ESE
AFFECTING FA LATER TODAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MAIN CORE
OF PCPN NORTH OF CANADIAN BORDER. GFS WHICH IS FARTHEST SOUTH WITH
DEVELOPING PCPN REALLY DOES NOT BRING LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS SOUTH OF INTERNATIONAL BORDER TIL CLOSE TO 00Z THEN EXITS
FA TO THE EAST AT 06Z. WITH LACK OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW COVERAGE WITH THE SYSTEM. MAINTAINED HIGHEST
POPS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA OF NW MN. OVERALL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WHICH DO OCCUR SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH
CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION MINIMAL TEMPERATURE RECOVERY EXPECTED.

EXPECT ANY SNOW TO END QUICKLY LATE EVENING AS WAVE PUSHES EAST.
THINK MIXING AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
OFF TOO FAR.

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY SO AGAIN THERMAL RECOVERY WILL
BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT. CLEARING...LIGHT
WINDS AND COLDER COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF CLOSE
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. WARM ADVECTION AND RETURN FLOW MAY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OFF AFT MIDNIGHT FROM VALLEY WEST.

KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE. SHOULD SEE SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WITH WARMER COLUMN
AND NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. GOOD
PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL START
DOWNWARD SLIDE OF TEMPERATURES.

FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP COOLER WEATHER OVER THE AREA.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE RIDGE
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST. RETURN FLOW
BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PCPN AND
A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAINTAINED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE
COULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026-028-038-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 281238
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NO CHANGES NECESSARY THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IN THE NEAR TERM DENSE FOG CONTINUES FROM DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY. GUIDANCE HOLDS VSBY DOWN THROUGH THE AM SO
HAVE ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

SHORT WAVE OF CONCERN ENTERING WESTERN SASK WILL PROPAGATE ESE
AFFECTING FA LATER TODAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MAIN CORE
OF PCPN NORTH OF CANADIAN BORDER. GFS WHICH IS FARTHEST SOUTH WITH
DEVELOPING PCPN REALLY DOES NOT BRING LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS SOUTH OF INTERNATIONAL BORDER TIL CLOSE TO 00Z THEN EXITS
FA TO THE EAST AT 06Z. WITH LACK OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW COVERAGE WITH THE SYSTEM. MAINTAINED HIGHEST
POPS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA OF NW MN. OVERALL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WHICH DO OCCUR SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH
CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION MINIMAL TEMPERATURE RECOVERY EXPECTED.

EXPECT ANY SNOW TO END QUICKLY LATE EVENING AS WAVE PUSHES EAST.
THINK MIXING AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
OFF TOO FAR.

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY SO AGAIN THERMAL RECOVERY WILL
BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT. CLEARING...LIGHT
WINDS AND COLDER COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF CLOSE
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. WARM ADVECTION AND RETURN FLOW MAY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OFF AFT MIDNIGHT FROM VALLEY WEST.

KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE. SHOULD SEE SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WITH WARMER COLUMN
AND NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. GOOD
PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL START
DOWNWARD SLIDE OF TEMPERATURES.

FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP COOLER WEATHER OVER THE AREA.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE RIDGE
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST. RETURN FLOW
BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PCPN AND
A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAINTAINED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE
COULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026-028-038-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 281238
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NO CHANGES NECESSARY THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IN THE NEAR TERM DENSE FOG CONTINUES FROM DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY. GUIDANCE HOLDS VSBY DOWN THROUGH THE AM SO
HAVE ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

SHORT WAVE OF CONCERN ENTERING WESTERN SASK WILL PROPAGATE ESE
AFFECTING FA LATER TODAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MAIN CORE
OF PCPN NORTH OF CANADIAN BORDER. GFS WHICH IS FARTHEST SOUTH WITH
DEVELOPING PCPN REALLY DOES NOT BRING LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS SOUTH OF INTERNATIONAL BORDER TIL CLOSE TO 00Z THEN EXITS
FA TO THE EAST AT 06Z. WITH LACK OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW COVERAGE WITH THE SYSTEM. MAINTAINED HIGHEST
POPS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA OF NW MN. OVERALL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WHICH DO OCCUR SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH
CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION MINIMAL TEMPERATURE RECOVERY EXPECTED.

EXPECT ANY SNOW TO END QUICKLY LATE EVENING AS WAVE PUSHES EAST.
THINK MIXING AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
OFF TOO FAR.

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY SO AGAIN THERMAL RECOVERY WILL
BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT. CLEARING...LIGHT
WINDS AND COLDER COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF CLOSE
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. WARM ADVECTION AND RETURN FLOW MAY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OFF AFT MIDNIGHT FROM VALLEY WEST.

KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE. SHOULD SEE SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WITH WARMER COLUMN
AND NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. GOOD
PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL START
DOWNWARD SLIDE OF TEMPERATURES.

FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP COOLER WEATHER OVER THE AREA.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE RIDGE
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST. RETURN FLOW
BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PCPN AND
A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAINTAINED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE
COULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026-028-038-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 281230
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
630 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NO UPDATES OTHER THAN TO UPDATE TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST 6 AM
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

BASED ON TRENDS VIA OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL LEAN
ON HRRR GUIDANCE (WHICH IS DOING VERY WELL) AND EXPAND FOG
WORDING WEST AND SOUTH AND WILL ALSO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FARTHER WEST. ALSO EXTENDED TILL 18Z FOR HEADLINE CUTOFF.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST. OBSERVATIONS NOT GETTING
ANY BETTER AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING WORSE VISIBILITIES NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WIDESPREAD VLIFR CIGS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY TODAY AS
LOW STRATUS AND FOG EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. LOW
STRATUS WILL THEN HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIFT TO
LIFR/IFR MOST AREAS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
021>023-025-036-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 281230
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
630 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NO UPDATES OTHER THAN TO UPDATE TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST 6 AM
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

BASED ON TRENDS VIA OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL LEAN
ON HRRR GUIDANCE (WHICH IS DOING VERY WELL) AND EXPAND FOG
WORDING WEST AND SOUTH AND WILL ALSO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FARTHER WEST. ALSO EXTENDED TILL 18Z FOR HEADLINE CUTOFF.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST. OBSERVATIONS NOT GETTING
ANY BETTER AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING WORSE VISIBILITIES NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WIDESPREAD VLIFR CIGS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY TODAY AS
LOW STRATUS AND FOG EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. LOW
STRATUS WILL THEN HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIFT TO
LIFR/IFR MOST AREAS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
021>023-025-036-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 281146
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

BASED ON TRENDS VIA OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL LEAN
ON HRRR GUIDANCE (WHICH IS DOING VERY WELL) AND EXPAND FOG
WORDING WEST AND SOUTH AND WILL ALSO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FARTHER WEST. ALSO EXTENDED TILL 18Z FOR HEADLINE CUTOFF.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST. OBSERVATIONS NOT GETTING
ANY BETTER AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING WORSE VISIBILITIES NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WIDESPREAD VLIFR CIGS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY TODAY AS
LOW STRATUS AND FOG EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. LOW
STRATUS WILL THEN HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIFT TO
LIFR/IFR MOST AREAS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
021>023-025-036-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 281146
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

BASED ON TRENDS VIA OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL LEAN
ON HRRR GUIDANCE (WHICH IS DOING VERY WELL) AND EXPAND FOG
WORDING WEST AND SOUTH AND WILL ALSO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FARTHER WEST. ALSO EXTENDED TILL 18Z FOR HEADLINE CUTOFF.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST. OBSERVATIONS NOT GETTING
ANY BETTER AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING WORSE VISIBILITIES NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WIDESPREAD VLIFR CIGS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY TODAY AS
LOW STRATUS AND FOG EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. LOW
STRATUS WILL THEN HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIFT TO
LIFR/IFR MOST AREAS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
021>023-025-036-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 281146
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

BASED ON TRENDS VIA OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL LEAN
ON HRRR GUIDANCE (WHICH IS DOING VERY WELL) AND EXPAND FOG
WORDING WEST AND SOUTH AND WILL ALSO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FARTHER WEST. ALSO EXTENDED TILL 18Z FOR HEADLINE CUTOFF.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST. OBSERVATIONS NOT GETTING
ANY BETTER AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING WORSE VISIBILITIES NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WIDESPREAD VLIFR CIGS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY TODAY AS
LOW STRATUS AND FOG EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. LOW
STRATUS WILL THEN HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIFT TO
LIFR/IFR MOST AREAS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
021>023-025-036-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 281146
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

BASED ON TRENDS VIA OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL LEAN
ON HRRR GUIDANCE (WHICH IS DOING VERY WELL) AND EXPAND FOG
WORDING WEST AND SOUTH AND WILL ALSO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FARTHER WEST. ALSO EXTENDED TILL 18Z FOR HEADLINE CUTOFF.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST. OBSERVATIONS NOT GETTING
ANY BETTER AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING WORSE VISIBILITIES NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WIDESPREAD VLIFR CIGS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY TODAY AS
LOW STRATUS AND FOG EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. LOW
STRATUS WILL THEN HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIFT TO
LIFR/IFR MOST AREAS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
021>023-025-036-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH






000
FXUS63 KFGF 280945
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
345 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IN THE NEAR TERM DENSE FOG CONTINUES FROM DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY. GUIDANCE HOLDS VSBY DOWN THROUGH THE AM SO
HAVE ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

SHORT WAVE OF CONCERN ENTERING WESTERN SASK WILL PROPAGATE ESE
AFFECTING FA LATER TODAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MAIN CORE
OF PCPN NORTH OF CANADIAN BORDER. GFS WHICH IS FARTHEST SOUTH WITH
DEVELOPING PCPN REALLY DOES NOT BRING LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS SOUTH OF INTERNATIONAL BORDER TIL CLOSE TO 00Z THEN EXITS
FA TO THE EAST AT 06Z. WITH LACK OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW COVERAGE WITH THE SYSTEM. MAINTAINED HIGHEST
POPS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA OF NW MN. OVERALL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WHICH DO OCCUR SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH
CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION MINIMAL TEMPERATURE RECOVERY EXPECTED.

EXPECT ANY SNOW TO END QUICKLY LATE EVENING AS WAVE PUSHES EAST.
THINK MIXING AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
OFF TOO FAR.

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY SO AGAIN THERMAL RECOVERY WILL
BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT. CLEARING...LIGHT
WINDS AND COLDER COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF CLOSE
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. WARM ADVECTION AND RETURN FLOW MAY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OFF AFT MIDNIGHT FROM VALLEY WEST.

KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE. SHOULD SEE SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WITH WARMER COLUMN
AND NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. GOOD
PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL START
DOWNWARD SLIDE OF TEMPERATURES.

FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP COOLER WEATHER OVER THE AREA.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE RIDGE
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST. RETURN FLOW
BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PCPN AND
A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...WITH KDVL AROUND
3/4SM. THINK THAT THE FOG WILL REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE WEST...BUT
KGFK AND KFAR SHOULD SEE VIS DROP BELOW 6SM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND BE IN THE 2-5SM RANGE OVERNIGHT. CIGS CONTINUE TO BE LOW...IN
THE 400-700 FT RANGE IN THE VALLEY AND LOWER AT KDVL. STRATUS HAS
FINALLY FILLED INTO THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND KTVF AND KBJI HAVE
GONE MVFR. THINK THAT AT LEAST KTVF SHOULD DIP DOWN TO IFR LATER
TONIGHT. MOST OF THE SITES WILL SEE THE LOW CIGS AND VIS LINGERING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING...WITH LIFR
CONTINUING AT KDVL. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z...BUT
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE MORNING. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING IN AFTER 20Z WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND
KDVL COULD BECOME QUITE BREEZY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
THINK THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON CIGS WITH CONDITIONS
MVFR AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 280945
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
345 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IN THE NEAR TERM DENSE FOG CONTINUES FROM DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY. GUIDANCE HOLDS VSBY DOWN THROUGH THE AM SO
HAVE ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

SHORT WAVE OF CONCERN ENTERING WESTERN SASK WILL PROPAGATE ESE
AFFECTING FA LATER TODAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MAIN CORE
OF PCPN NORTH OF CANADIAN BORDER. GFS WHICH IS FARTHEST SOUTH WITH
DEVELOPING PCPN REALLY DOES NOT BRING LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS SOUTH OF INTERNATIONAL BORDER TIL CLOSE TO 00Z THEN EXITS
FA TO THE EAST AT 06Z. WITH LACK OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW COVERAGE WITH THE SYSTEM. MAINTAINED HIGHEST
POPS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA OF NW MN. OVERALL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WHICH DO OCCUR SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH
CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION MINIMAL TEMPERATURE RECOVERY EXPECTED.

EXPECT ANY SNOW TO END QUICKLY LATE EVENING AS WAVE PUSHES EAST.
THINK MIXING AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
OFF TOO FAR.

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY SO AGAIN THERMAL RECOVERY WILL
BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT. CLEARING...LIGHT
WINDS AND COLDER COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF CLOSE
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. WARM ADVECTION AND RETURN FLOW MAY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OFF AFT MIDNIGHT FROM VALLEY WEST.

KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE. SHOULD SEE SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WITH WARMER COLUMN
AND NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. GOOD
PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL START
DOWNWARD SLIDE OF TEMPERATURES.

FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP COOLER WEATHER OVER THE AREA.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE RIDGE
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST. RETURN FLOW
BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PCPN AND
A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...WITH KDVL AROUND
3/4SM. THINK THAT THE FOG WILL REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE WEST...BUT
KGFK AND KFAR SHOULD SEE VIS DROP BELOW 6SM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND BE IN THE 2-5SM RANGE OVERNIGHT. CIGS CONTINUE TO BE LOW...IN
THE 400-700 FT RANGE IN THE VALLEY AND LOWER AT KDVL. STRATUS HAS
FINALLY FILLED INTO THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND KTVF AND KBJI HAVE
GONE MVFR. THINK THAT AT LEAST KTVF SHOULD DIP DOWN TO IFR LATER
TONIGHT. MOST OF THE SITES WILL SEE THE LOW CIGS AND VIS LINGERING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING...WITH LIFR
CONTINUING AT KDVL. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z...BUT
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE MORNING. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING IN AFTER 20Z WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND
KDVL COULD BECOME QUITE BREEZY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
THINK THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON CIGS WITH CONDITIONS
MVFR AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 280945
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
345 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IN THE NEAR TERM DENSE FOG CONTINUES FROM DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY. GUIDANCE HOLDS VSBY DOWN THROUGH THE AM SO
HAVE ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

SHORT WAVE OF CONCERN ENTERING WESTERN SASK WILL PROPAGATE ESE
AFFECTING FA LATER TODAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MAIN CORE
OF PCPN NORTH OF CANADIAN BORDER. GFS WHICH IS FARTHEST SOUTH WITH
DEVELOPING PCPN REALLY DOES NOT BRING LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS SOUTH OF INTERNATIONAL BORDER TIL CLOSE TO 00Z THEN EXITS
FA TO THE EAST AT 06Z. WITH LACK OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW COVERAGE WITH THE SYSTEM. MAINTAINED HIGHEST
POPS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA OF NW MN. OVERALL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WHICH DO OCCUR SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH
CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION MINIMAL TEMPERATURE RECOVERY EXPECTED.

EXPECT ANY SNOW TO END QUICKLY LATE EVENING AS WAVE PUSHES EAST.
THINK MIXING AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
OFF TOO FAR.

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY SO AGAIN THERMAL RECOVERY WILL
BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT. CLEARING...LIGHT
WINDS AND COLDER COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF CLOSE
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. WARM ADVECTION AND RETURN FLOW MAY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OFF AFT MIDNIGHT FROM VALLEY WEST.

KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE. SHOULD SEE SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WITH WARMER COLUMN
AND NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. GOOD
PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL START
DOWNWARD SLIDE OF TEMPERATURES.

FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP COOLER WEATHER OVER THE AREA.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE RIDGE
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST. RETURN FLOW
BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PCPN AND
A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...WITH KDVL AROUND
3/4SM. THINK THAT THE FOG WILL REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE WEST...BUT
KGFK AND KFAR SHOULD SEE VIS DROP BELOW 6SM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND BE IN THE 2-5SM RANGE OVERNIGHT. CIGS CONTINUE TO BE LOW...IN
THE 400-700 FT RANGE IN THE VALLEY AND LOWER AT KDVL. STRATUS HAS
FINALLY FILLED INTO THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND KTVF AND KBJI HAVE
GONE MVFR. THINK THAT AT LEAST KTVF SHOULD DIP DOWN TO IFR LATER
TONIGHT. MOST OF THE SITES WILL SEE THE LOW CIGS AND VIS LINGERING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING...WITH LIFR
CONTINUING AT KDVL. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z...BUT
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE MORNING. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING IN AFTER 20Z WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND
KDVL COULD BECOME QUITE BREEZY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
THINK THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON CIGS WITH CONDITIONS
MVFR AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KBIS 280943
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST. OBSERVATIONS NOT GETTING
ANY BETTER AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING WORSE VISIBILITIES NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED AND MAY CONTINUE. THIS INCLUDES KJMS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. LOW STRATUS WILL THEN HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ005-013-
023-025-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 280943
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST. OBSERVATIONS NOT GETTING
ANY BETTER AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING WORSE VISIBILITIES NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED AND MAY CONTINUE. THIS INCLUDES KJMS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. LOW STRATUS WILL THEN HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ005-013-
023-025-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 280943
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST. OBSERVATIONS NOT GETTING
ANY BETTER AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING WORSE VISIBILITIES NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED AND MAY CONTINUE. THIS INCLUDES KJMS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. LOW STRATUS WILL THEN HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ005-013-
023-025-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 280943
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST. OBSERVATIONS NOT GETTING
ANY BETTER AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING WORSE VISIBILITIES NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED AND MAY CONTINUE. THIS INCLUDES KJMS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. LOW STRATUS WILL THEN HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ005-013-
023-025-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 280915
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED AND MAY CONTINUE. THIS INCLUDES KJMS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. LOW STRATUS WILL THEN HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 280915
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED AND MAY CONTINUE. THIS INCLUDES KJMS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. LOW STRATUS WILL THEN HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH









000
FXUS63 KBIS 280703
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
103 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 103 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN UPDATES WITH THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADJUST
SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
EXPANDING THE AERIAL COVERAGE OF FOG OVER THE JAMES AND WESTERN
DEVILS LAKE BASINS.

CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
BEFORE WE CLOUD UP AGAIN IN THE MID LEVELS LATER THIS MORNING.
WILL ALSO SEE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER 10-12Z WHICH WILL THEN SURGE SOUTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY TO MID DAY.

DENSE FOG BEING REPORTED AT SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES...BUT
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT
THINKING IS WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW AND THROW OUT A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOG REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 103 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AND
MAY CONTINUE. THIS INCLUDES KJMS. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL
IFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO MID-DAY. STRATUS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...AJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 280703
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
103 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 103 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN UPDATES WITH THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADJUST
SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
EXPANDING THE AERIAL COVERAGE OF FOG OVER THE JAMES AND WESTERN
DEVILS LAKE BASINS.

CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
BEFORE WE CLOUD UP AGAIN IN THE MID LEVELS LATER THIS MORNING.
WILL ALSO SEE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER 10-12Z WHICH WILL THEN SURGE SOUTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY TO MID DAY.

DENSE FOG BEING REPORTED AT SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES...BUT
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT
THINKING IS WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW AND THROW OUT A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOG REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 103 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AND
MAY CONTINUE. THIS INCLUDES KJMS. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL
IFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO MID-DAY. STRATUS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...AJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 280703
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
103 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 103 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN UPDATES WITH THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADJUST
SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
EXPANDING THE AERIAL COVERAGE OF FOG OVER THE JAMES AND WESTERN
DEVILS LAKE BASINS.

CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
BEFORE WE CLOUD UP AGAIN IN THE MID LEVELS LATER THIS MORNING.
WILL ALSO SEE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER 10-12Z WHICH WILL THEN SURGE SOUTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY TO MID DAY.

DENSE FOG BEING REPORTED AT SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES...BUT
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT
THINKING IS WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW AND THROW OUT A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOG REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 103 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AND
MAY CONTINUE. THIS INCLUDES KJMS. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL
IFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO MID-DAY. STRATUS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...AJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 280703
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
103 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 103 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN UPDATES WITH THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADJUST
SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
EXPANDING THE AERIAL COVERAGE OF FOG OVER THE JAMES AND WESTERN
DEVILS LAKE BASINS.

CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
BEFORE WE CLOUD UP AGAIN IN THE MID LEVELS LATER THIS MORNING.
WILL ALSO SEE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER 10-12Z WHICH WILL THEN SURGE SOUTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY TO MID DAY.

DENSE FOG BEING REPORTED AT SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES...BUT
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT
THINKING IS WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW AND THROW OUT A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOG REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 103 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AND
MAY CONTINUE. THIS INCLUDES KJMS. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL
IFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO MID-DAY. STRATUS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...AJS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 280546
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

BUMPED UP THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA TO AREAS OF FOG AS COVERAGE
HAS BEEN LESS PATCHY IN RECENT OBS. SOME LOCATIONS DOWN TO 1/4SM
BUT THINK THAT IT WILL BE IN AND OUT OF THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES SO
WILL JUST KEEP AN EYE ON IT FOR NOW AND LEAVE OUT HEADLINES FOR
THE TIME BEING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE...AND SOME SITES
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN DROPPING TO AROUND 1/2SM
IN VISIBILITY. SOME SITES HAVE COME BACK UP SO THE FOG IS PRETTY
PATCHY...BUT SHOULD STICK AROUND MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACCORDING TO
THE HRRR. ADDED IN SOME PATCHY FOG FROM THE RED RIVER WESTWARD.
PRECIP IN SOUTHERN CANADA HAS PULLED AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA SO DROPPED POPS WE HAD GOING FOR AFTER 06Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS GOING IN OUR NORTHEAST AS FLAG ISLAND REPORTED A BIT OF SNOW
EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

TOUGH GO OF IT TODAY IN TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN WITH THE CLOUDS. AFTER THINGS WERE FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU
EARLY AFTERNOON THERE HAVE BEEN BREAKS DEVELOPING FROM KDTL TO
KFSE. THEREFORE THIS WILL REMAIN THE CHALLENGE INTO TONIGHT AND
WED. OTHER THAN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BREAKS THE LOW CLOUDS
LIFTED EARLIER FROM KBJI TO KROX AS WELL BUT THESE AREAS HAVE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT REPLACED THEM. SOUTH-SSE WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MAY BE HELPING TO SCOUR THINGS OUT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF
THINGS REMAINING CLOUDY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD LOSE THE GUSTINESS
THIS EVENING BUT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN STEADY AT LEAST IN THE 10-15
KNOT RANGE. THESE STEADIER WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE THICKER
FOG AT BAY BUT THERE MAY STILL BE SOME 2-5SM VSBYS IN MIST AROUND.
WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER EXPECTED VSBYS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST ITSELF. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR.

THERE IS ALSO PRETTY STRONG 850MB WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT WHICH
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
LOOK QUITE DRY IN THE MID LEVELS BUT LOTS OF CIRRUS ABOVE THAT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A STEADY STREAM OF ECHOES FROM THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS BACK NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. MAIN SUPPORT
SEEMS TO BE THE UPPER JET AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ALONG IT. MODELS SEEM TO KEEP THE IDEA OF SOME MINIMAL PCPN FROM
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY OVER INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION. WITH THE DRY MID LEVELS THIS MAY BE MORE VIRGA THAN
ANYTHING BUT WILL MENTION A MIX POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. KEPT
TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND STEADY
WINDS...BUT ALL THESE BETS ARE OFF IF SOME AREAS CLEAR OUT.
CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A SLOWER EVOLUTION TO ANY ADDITIONAL PCPN
REACHING THE NORTHERN FA ON WED...AS THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ALMOST
NOTHING UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z THU IN THE FAR NORTH. THIS CONTINUES
INTO WED NIGHT AS THE MAIN PCPN BAND REMAINS IN SOUTHERN CANADA.
MAY BE MORE LIKE FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF BREEZIER WINDS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT AS WELL ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPS WORKING
SOUTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ON THU WITH NOT A LOT OF TEMP RECOVERY
EXPECTED. ONE POSITIVE THING IS THE LACK OF SNOW COVER. IF THERE
IS SUN ON THU IT WILL WARM UP. AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON FRI WILL SEE RETURN FLOW AND SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS.
MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST FA FRI
AFTERNOON.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD
HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A RELATIVELY DRY
PATTERN. THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BE
FALLING DURING DAY ON SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT. AN ARCTIC PLUNGE IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY AS HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVES ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY
NIGHT...MAY SKIRT THE AREA...POSSIBLE PRODUCING A DUSTING OF SNOW.
NO MAJOR SNOW PRODUCERS ARE ON THE HORIZON...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...WITH KDVL AROUND
3/4SM. THINK THAT THE FOG WILL REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE WEST...BUT
KGFK AND KFAR SHOULD SEE VIS DROP BELOW 6SM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND BE IN THE 2-5SM RANGE OVERNIGHT. CIGS CONTINUE TO BE LOW...IN
THE 400-700 FT RANGE IN THE VALLEY AND LOWER AT KDVL. STRATUS HAS
FINALLY FILLED INTO THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND KTVF AND KBJI HAVE
GONE MVFR. THINK THAT AT LEAST KTVF SHOULD DIP DOWN TO IFR LATER
TONIGHT. MOST OF THE SITES WILL SEE THE LOW CIGS AND VIS LINGERING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING...WITH LIFR
CONTINUING AT KDVL. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z...BUT
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE MORNING. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING IN AFTER 20Z WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND
KDVL COULD BECOME QUITE BREEZY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
THINK THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON CIGS WITH CONDITIONS
MVFR AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 280546
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

BUMPED UP THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA TO AREAS OF FOG AS COVERAGE
HAS BEEN LESS PATCHY IN RECENT OBS. SOME LOCATIONS DOWN TO 1/4SM
BUT THINK THAT IT WILL BE IN AND OUT OF THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES SO
WILL JUST KEEP AN EYE ON IT FOR NOW AND LEAVE OUT HEADLINES FOR
THE TIME BEING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE...AND SOME SITES
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN DROPPING TO AROUND 1/2SM
IN VISIBILITY. SOME SITES HAVE COME BACK UP SO THE FOG IS PRETTY
PATCHY...BUT SHOULD STICK AROUND MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACCORDING TO
THE HRRR. ADDED IN SOME PATCHY FOG FROM THE RED RIVER WESTWARD.
PRECIP IN SOUTHERN CANADA HAS PULLED AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA SO DROPPED POPS WE HAD GOING FOR AFTER 06Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS GOING IN OUR NORTHEAST AS FLAG ISLAND REPORTED A BIT OF SNOW
EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

TOUGH GO OF IT TODAY IN TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN WITH THE CLOUDS. AFTER THINGS WERE FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU
EARLY AFTERNOON THERE HAVE BEEN BREAKS DEVELOPING FROM KDTL TO
KFSE. THEREFORE THIS WILL REMAIN THE CHALLENGE INTO TONIGHT AND
WED. OTHER THAN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BREAKS THE LOW CLOUDS
LIFTED EARLIER FROM KBJI TO KROX AS WELL BUT THESE AREAS HAVE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT REPLACED THEM. SOUTH-SSE WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MAY BE HELPING TO SCOUR THINGS OUT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF
THINGS REMAINING CLOUDY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD LOSE THE GUSTINESS
THIS EVENING BUT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN STEADY AT LEAST IN THE 10-15
KNOT RANGE. THESE STEADIER WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE THICKER
FOG AT BAY BUT THERE MAY STILL BE SOME 2-5SM VSBYS IN MIST AROUND.
WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER EXPECTED VSBYS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST ITSELF. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR.

THERE IS ALSO PRETTY STRONG 850MB WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT WHICH
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
LOOK QUITE DRY IN THE MID LEVELS BUT LOTS OF CIRRUS ABOVE THAT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A STEADY STREAM OF ECHOES FROM THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS BACK NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. MAIN SUPPORT
SEEMS TO BE THE UPPER JET AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ALONG IT. MODELS SEEM TO KEEP THE IDEA OF SOME MINIMAL PCPN FROM
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY OVER INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION. WITH THE DRY MID LEVELS THIS MAY BE MORE VIRGA THAN
ANYTHING BUT WILL MENTION A MIX POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. KEPT
TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND STEADY
WINDS...BUT ALL THESE BETS ARE OFF IF SOME AREAS CLEAR OUT.
CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A SLOWER EVOLUTION TO ANY ADDITIONAL PCPN
REACHING THE NORTHERN FA ON WED...AS THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ALMOST
NOTHING UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z THU IN THE FAR NORTH. THIS CONTINUES
INTO WED NIGHT AS THE MAIN PCPN BAND REMAINS IN SOUTHERN CANADA.
MAY BE MORE LIKE FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF BREEZIER WINDS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT AS WELL ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPS WORKING
SOUTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ON THU WITH NOT A LOT OF TEMP RECOVERY
EXPECTED. ONE POSITIVE THING IS THE LACK OF SNOW COVER. IF THERE
IS SUN ON THU IT WILL WARM UP. AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON FRI WILL SEE RETURN FLOW AND SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS.
MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST FA FRI
AFTERNOON.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD
HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A RELATIVELY DRY
PATTERN. THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BE
FALLING DURING DAY ON SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT. AN ARCTIC PLUNGE IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY AS HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVES ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY
NIGHT...MAY SKIRT THE AREA...POSSIBLE PRODUCING A DUSTING OF SNOW.
NO MAJOR SNOW PRODUCERS ARE ON THE HORIZON...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...WITH KDVL AROUND
3/4SM. THINK THAT THE FOG WILL REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE WEST...BUT
KGFK AND KFAR SHOULD SEE VIS DROP BELOW 6SM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND BE IN THE 2-5SM RANGE OVERNIGHT. CIGS CONTINUE TO BE LOW...IN
THE 400-700 FT RANGE IN THE VALLEY AND LOWER AT KDVL. STRATUS HAS
FINALLY FILLED INTO THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND KTVF AND KBJI HAVE
GONE MVFR. THINK THAT AT LEAST KTVF SHOULD DIP DOWN TO IFR LATER
TONIGHT. MOST OF THE SITES WILL SEE THE LOW CIGS AND VIS LINGERING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING...WITH LIFR
CONTINUING AT KDVL. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z...BUT
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE MORNING. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING IN AFTER 20Z WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND
KDVL COULD BECOME QUITE BREEZY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
THINK THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON CIGS WITH CONDITIONS
MVFR AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 280336
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
936 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE...AND SOME SITES
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN DROPPING TO AROUND 1/2SM
IN VISIBILITY. SOME SITES HAVE COME BACK UP SO THE FOG IS PRETTY
PATCHY...BUT SHOULD STICK AROUND MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACCORDING TO
THE HRRR. ADDED IN SOME PATCHY FOG FROM THE RED RIVER WESTWARD.
PRECIP IN SOUTHERN CANADA HAS PULLED AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA SO DROPPED POPS WE HAD GOING FOR AFTER 06Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS GOING IN OUR NORTHEAST AS FLAG ISLAND REPORTED A BIT OF SNOW
EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

TOUGH GO OF IT TODAY IN TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN WITH THE CLOUDS. AFTER THINGS WERE FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU
EARLY AFTERNOON THERE HAVE BEEN BREAKS DEVELOPING FROM KDTL TO
KFSE. THEREFORE THIS WILL REMAIN THE CHALLENGE INTO TONIGHT AND
WED. OTHER THAN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BREAKS THE LOW CLOUDS
LIFTED EARLIER FROM KBJI TO KROX AS WELL BUT THESE AREAS HAVE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT REPLACED THEM. SOUTH-SSE WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MAY BE HELPING TO SCOUR THINGS OUT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF
THINGS REMAINING CLOUDY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD LOSE THE GUSTINESS
THIS EVENING BUT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN STEADY AT LEAST IN THE 10-15
KNOT RANGE. THESE STEADIER WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE THICKER
FOG AT BAY BUT THERE MAY STILL BE SOME 2-5SM VSBYS IN MIST AROUND.
WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER EXPECTED VSBYS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST ITSELF. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR.

THERE IS ALSO PRETTY STRONG 850MB WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT WHICH
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
LOOK QUITE DRY IN THE MID LEVELS BUT LOTS OF CIRRUS ABOVE THAT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A STEADY STREAM OF ECHOES FROM THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS BACK NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. MAIN SUPPORT
SEEMS TO BE THE UPPER JET AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ALONG IT. MODELS SEEM TO KEEP THE IDEA OF SOME MINIMAL PCPN FROM
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY OVER INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION. WITH THE DRY MID LEVELS THIS MAY BE MORE VIRGA THAN
ANYTHING BUT WILL MENTION A MIX POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. KEPT
TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND STEADY
WINDS...BUT ALL THESE BETS ARE OFF IF SOME AREAS CLEAR OUT.
CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A SLOWER EVOLUTION TO ANY ADDITIONAL PCPN
REACHING THE NORTHERN FA ON WED...AS THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ALMOST
NOTHING UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z THU IN THE FAR NORTH. THIS CONTINUES
INTO WED NIGHT AS THE MAIN PCPN BAND REMAINS IN SOUTHERN CANADA.
MAY BE MORE LIKE FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF BREEZIER WINDS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT AS WELL ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPS WORKING
SOUTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ON THU WITH NOT A LOT OF TEMP RECOVERY
EXPECTED. ONE POSITIVE THING IS THE LACK OF SNOW COVER. IF THERE
IS SUN ON THU IT WILL WARM UP. AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON FRI WILL SEE RETURN FLOW AND SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS.
MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST FA FRI
AFTERNOON.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD
HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A RELATIVELY DRY
PATTERN. THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BE
FALLING DURING DAY ON SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT. AN ARCTIC PLUNGE IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY AS HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVES ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY
NIGHT...MAY SKIRT THE AREA...POSSIBLE PRODUCING A DUSTING OF SNOW.
NO MAJOR SNOW PRODUCERS ARE ON THE HORIZON...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

IFR CIGS CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD OUT OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
INTO THE KDVL AREA. THE AREA OF NO LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST WILL
FILL IN BY LATE EVENING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING KTVF AND KBJI DOWN TO MVFR AND IFR CIGS. WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...THE QUESTION IS IF WE WILL GET ENOUGH ADVECTION
TO BRING SOME FOG INTO THE AREA. THE SREF PROBABILITIES ARE PRETTY
HIGH...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP EVERYONE FROM
GOING COMPLETELY IN THE TANK. INCLUDED SOME 1SM TOWARDS MORNING IN
THE VALLEY BUT WILL KEEP THE LOWEST VIS OUT FOR NOW. IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KBIS 280311
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
911 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOG REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO MID-DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS
HYDROLOGY...AJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 280311
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
911 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOG REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO MID-DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS
HYDROLOGY...AJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 280133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
733 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO MID-DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS
HYDROLOGY...AJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 280133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
733 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO MID-DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS
HYDROLOGY...AJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 280133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
733 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO MID-DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS
HYDROLOGY...AJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 280133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
733 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO MID-DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS
HYDROLOGY...AJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 280133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
733 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO MID-DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS
HYDROLOGY...AJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 280133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
733 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO MID-DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS
HYDROLOGY...AJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 280133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
733 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO MID-DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS
HYDROLOGY...AJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 280133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
733 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO MID-DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS
HYDROLOGY...AJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 280133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
733 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO MID-DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS
HYDROLOGY...AJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 280133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
733 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO MID-DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS
HYDROLOGY...AJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 280133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
733 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO MID-DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS
HYDROLOGY...AJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 280133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
733 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO MID-DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS
HYDROLOGY...AJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 280133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
733 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO MID-DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS
HYDROLOGY...AJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 280133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
733 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO MID-DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS
HYDROLOGY...AJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 280133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
733 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO MID-DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS
HYDROLOGY...AJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 280133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
733 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO MID-DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS
HYDROLOGY...AJS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 280040
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
640 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS GOING IN OUR NORTHEAST AS FLAG ISLAND REPORTED A BIT OF SNOW
EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

TOUGH GO OF IT TODAY IN TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN WITH THE CLOUDS. AFTER THINGS WERE FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU
EARLY AFTERNOON THERE HAVE BEEN BREAKS DEVELOPING FROM KDTL TO
KFSE. THEREFORE THIS WILL REMAIN THE CHALLENGE INTO TONIGHT AND
WED. OTHER THAN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BREAKS THE LOW CLOUDS
LIFTED EARLIER FROM KBJI TO KROX AS WELL BUT THESE AREAS HAVE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT REPLACED THEM. SOUTH-SSE WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MAY BE HELPING TO SCOUR THINGS OUT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF
THINGS REMAINING CLOUDY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD LOSE THE GUSTINESS
THIS EVENING BUT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN STEADY AT LEAST IN THE 10-15
KNOT RANGE. THESE STEADIER WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE THICKER
FOG AT BAY BUT THERE MAY STILL BE SOME 2-5SM VSBYS IN MIST AROUND.
WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER EXPECTED VSBYS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST ITSELF. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR.

THERE IS ALSO PRETTY STRONG 850MB WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT WHICH
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
LOOK QUITE DRY IN THE MID LEVELS BUT LOTS OF CIRRUS ABOVE THAT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A STEADY STREAM OF ECHOES FROM THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS BACK NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. MAIN SUPPORT
SEEMS TO BE THE UPPER JET AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ALONG IT. MODELS SEEM TO KEEP THE IDEA OF SOME MINIMAL PCPN FROM
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY OVER INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION. WITH THE DRY MID LEVELS THIS MAY BE MORE VIRGA THAN
ANYTHING BUT WILL MENTION A MIX POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. KEPT
TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND STEADY
WINDS...BUT ALL THESE BETS ARE OFF IF SOME AREAS CLEAR OUT.
CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A SLOWER EVOLUTION TO ANY ADDITIONAL PCPN
REACHING THE NORTHERN FA ON WED...AS THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ALMOST
NOTHING UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z THU IN THE FAR NORTH. THIS CONTINUES
INTO WED NIGHT AS THE MAIN PCPN BAND REMAINS IN SOUTHERN CANADA.
MAY BE MORE LIKE FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF BREEZIER WINDS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT AS WELL ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPS WORKING
SOUTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ON THU WITH NOT A LOT OF TEMP RECOVERY
EXPECTED. ONE POSITIVE THING IS THE LACK OF SNOW COVER. IF THERE
IS SUN ON THU IT WILL WARM UP. AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON FRI WILL SEE RETURN FLOW AND SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS.
MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST FA FRI
AFTERNOON.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD
HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A RELATIVELY DRY
PATTERN. THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BE
FALLING DURING DAY ON SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT. AN ARCTIC PLUNGE IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY AS HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVES ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY
NIGHT...MAY SKIRT THE AREA...POSSIBLE PRODUCING A DUSTING OF SNOW.
NO MAJOR SNOW PRODUCERS ARE ON THE HORIZON...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

IFR CIGS CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD OUT OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
INTO THE KDVL AREA. THE AREA OF NO LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST WILL
FILL IN BY LATE EVENING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING KTVF AND KBJI DOWN TO MVFR AND IFR CIGS. WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...THE QUESTION IS IF WE WILL GET ENOUGH ADVECTION
TO BRING SOME FOG INTO THE AREA. THE SREF PROBABILITIES ARE PRETTY
HIGH...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP EVERYONE FROM
GOING COMPLETELY IN THE TANK. INCLUDED SOME 1SM TOWARDS MORNING IN
THE VALLEY BUT WILL KEEP THE LOWEST VIS OUT FOR NOW. IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 280040
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
640 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS GOING IN OUR NORTHEAST AS FLAG ISLAND REPORTED A BIT OF SNOW
EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

TOUGH GO OF IT TODAY IN TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN WITH THE CLOUDS. AFTER THINGS WERE FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU
EARLY AFTERNOON THERE HAVE BEEN BREAKS DEVELOPING FROM KDTL TO
KFSE. THEREFORE THIS WILL REMAIN THE CHALLENGE INTO TONIGHT AND
WED. OTHER THAN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BREAKS THE LOW CLOUDS
LIFTED EARLIER FROM KBJI TO KROX AS WELL BUT THESE AREAS HAVE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT REPLACED THEM. SOUTH-SSE WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MAY BE HELPING TO SCOUR THINGS OUT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF
THINGS REMAINING CLOUDY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD LOSE THE GUSTINESS
THIS EVENING BUT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN STEADY AT LEAST IN THE 10-15
KNOT RANGE. THESE STEADIER WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE THICKER
FOG AT BAY BUT THERE MAY STILL BE SOME 2-5SM VSBYS IN MIST AROUND.
WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER EXPECTED VSBYS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST ITSELF. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR.

THERE IS ALSO PRETTY STRONG 850MB WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT WHICH
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
LOOK QUITE DRY IN THE MID LEVELS BUT LOTS OF CIRRUS ABOVE THAT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A STEADY STREAM OF ECHOES FROM THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS BACK NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. MAIN SUPPORT
SEEMS TO BE THE UPPER JET AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ALONG IT. MODELS SEEM TO KEEP THE IDEA OF SOME MINIMAL PCPN FROM
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY OVER INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION. WITH THE DRY MID LEVELS THIS MAY BE MORE VIRGA THAN
ANYTHING BUT WILL MENTION A MIX POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. KEPT
TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND STEADY
WINDS...BUT ALL THESE BETS ARE OFF IF SOME AREAS CLEAR OUT.
CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A SLOWER EVOLUTION TO ANY ADDITIONAL PCPN
REACHING THE NORTHERN FA ON WED...AS THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ALMOST
NOTHING UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z THU IN THE FAR NORTH. THIS CONTINUES
INTO WED NIGHT AS THE MAIN PCPN BAND REMAINS IN SOUTHERN CANADA.
MAY BE MORE LIKE FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF BREEZIER WINDS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT AS WELL ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPS WORKING
SOUTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ON THU WITH NOT A LOT OF TEMP RECOVERY
EXPECTED. ONE POSITIVE THING IS THE LACK OF SNOW COVER. IF THERE
IS SUN ON THU IT WILL WARM UP. AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON FRI WILL SEE RETURN FLOW AND SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS.
MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST FA FRI
AFTERNOON.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD
HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A RELATIVELY DRY
PATTERN. THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BE
FALLING DURING DAY ON SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT. AN ARCTIC PLUNGE IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY AS HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVES ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY
NIGHT...MAY SKIRT THE AREA...POSSIBLE PRODUCING A DUSTING OF SNOW.
NO MAJOR SNOW PRODUCERS ARE ON THE HORIZON...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

IFR CIGS CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD OUT OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
INTO THE KDVL AREA. THE AREA OF NO LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST WILL
FILL IN BY LATE EVENING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING KTVF AND KBJI DOWN TO MVFR AND IFR CIGS. WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...THE QUESTION IS IF WE WILL GET ENOUGH ADVECTION
TO BRING SOME FOG INTO THE AREA. THE SREF PROBABILITIES ARE PRETTY
HIGH...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP EVERYONE FROM
GOING COMPLETELY IN THE TANK. INCLUDED SOME 1SM TOWARDS MORNING IN
THE VALLEY BUT WILL KEEP THE LOWEST VIS OUT FOR NOW. IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...JR







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