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  [top]

000
FXUS63 KBIS 280247
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
947 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS DOMINATES THE WEATHER FOR
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. SCT-BKN LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS
PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE UNDERNEATH MID LEVEL
ENERGY AND ON THE NORTH/EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER JET STREAM.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK. DID INCREASE SKY COVER A
BIT EAST AS CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND LOOK TO DO SO FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER MICHIGAN WHILE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. BROAD
AREA OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS LOW CONTINUES TO
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND OPEN INTO THE FLOW AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN.

ON MONDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA AND
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL REBOUND
SOME...THOUGH STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A BLOCKING WEATHER
PATTERN FEATURING A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
(HUDSON BAY LOW) AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS GENERALLY CUTOFF FROM GULF MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE LOW. ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW CAN OFTEN BRING SURPRISE CONVECTION AS WEAK IMPULSES ARE
INEVITABLY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THIS
PERIOD DRY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND FROM BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY (MID/UPPER 70S TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE
JAMES VALLEY TO LOWER 80S SOUTHWEST) TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL (MID TO
UPPER 80S) BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING KJMS.
MOSTLY CLEAR WEST WITH DECREASING CLOUDS CENTRAL. CIGS EAST SHOULD
IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 280247
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
947 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS DOMINATES THE WEATHER FOR
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. SCT-BKN LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS
PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE UNDERNEATH MID LEVEL
ENERGY AND ON THE NORTH/EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER JET STREAM.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK. DID INCREASE SKY COVER A
BIT EAST AS CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND LOOK TO DO SO FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER MICHIGAN WHILE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. BROAD
AREA OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS LOW CONTINUES TO
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND OPEN INTO THE FLOW AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN.

ON MONDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA AND
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL REBOUND
SOME...THOUGH STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A BLOCKING WEATHER
PATTERN FEATURING A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
(HUDSON BAY LOW) AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS GENERALLY CUTOFF FROM GULF MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE LOW. ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW CAN OFTEN BRING SURPRISE CONVECTION AS WEAK IMPULSES ARE
INEVITABLY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THIS
PERIOD DRY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND FROM BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY (MID/UPPER 70S TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE
JAMES VALLEY TO LOWER 80S SOUTHWEST) TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL (MID TO
UPPER 80S) BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING KJMS.
MOSTLY CLEAR WEST WITH DECREASING CLOUDS CENTRAL. CIGS EAST SHOULD
IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH





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000
FXUS63 KFGF 280240
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR REMAINDER OF EVENING CONTINUES TO BE SKY
COVER TRENDS. SWIR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF CWA (LAKES VISIBLE) AND EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHWEST MN.
RUC H850 TO H700 RH FIELD HAS DECENT HANDLE ON TRENDS...SO USED
ESTF EXTRAPOLATE TOOL WITH RUC GUIDANCE FOR HOURLY SKY GRIDS THROUGH
12Z. LOOKING FOR MOST OF CWA TO BE CLEARED OUT BE 09Z TO 12Z
TIMEFRAME THEN PLENTY OF SOLAR TOMORROW. VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO
TEMP GRIDS AS THEY APPEAR ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TIMING DISSIPATION OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BE FORECAST
CHALLENGE. CURRENTLY VIS SAT SHOWING MOST OF AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST BUT HERE IN GRAND FORKS...SKIES BECOMING MUCH BRIGHTER AS
CLOUD LAYER THINS. WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME BUT OVERALL WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE HOW THIS WORKS AND
READJUST AT 10 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STILL HAVE PRETTY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN SOME SHRINKAGE ALONG ITS EDGES. THINK A SLOW
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING IS STILL LIKELY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
HIT AND MISS BUT MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN. WILL NOT EXTEND THE
MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOW TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY BE THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT. AS NORTH WINDS DIE DOWN AND
CLOUDS START TO THIN TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY BUT NORTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP THINGS ON THE
COOL SIDE YET. SAME STORY CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

850MB TEMPS RECOVER A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY FROM TUE INTO WED SO
GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY TOO. FOR WED
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD WITH REGION IN MID
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE AND WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CIGS WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNING OUT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY MID MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 280240
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR REMAINDER OF EVENING CONTINUES TO BE SKY
COVER TRENDS. SWIR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF CWA (LAKES VISIBLE) AND EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHWEST MN.
RUC H850 TO H700 RH FIELD HAS DECENT HANDLE ON TRENDS...SO USED
ESTF EXTRAPOLATE TOOL WITH RUC GUIDANCE FOR HOURLY SKY GRIDS THROUGH
12Z. LOOKING FOR MOST OF CWA TO BE CLEARED OUT BE 09Z TO 12Z
TIMEFRAME THEN PLENTY OF SOLAR TOMORROW. VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO
TEMP GRIDS AS THEY APPEAR ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TIMING DISSIPATION OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BE FORECAST
CHALLENGE. CURRENTLY VIS SAT SHOWING MOST OF AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST BUT HERE IN GRAND FORKS...SKIES BECOMING MUCH BRIGHTER AS
CLOUD LAYER THINS. WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME BUT OVERALL WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE HOW THIS WORKS AND
READJUST AT 10 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STILL HAVE PRETTY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN SOME SHRINKAGE ALONG ITS EDGES. THINK A SLOW
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING IS STILL LIKELY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
HIT AND MISS BUT MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN. WILL NOT EXTEND THE
MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOW TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY BE THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT. AS NORTH WINDS DIE DOWN AND
CLOUDS START TO THIN TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY BUT NORTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP THINGS ON THE
COOL SIDE YET. SAME STORY CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

850MB TEMPS RECOVER A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY FROM TUE INTO WED SO
GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY TOO. FOR WED
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD WITH REGION IN MID
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE AND WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CIGS WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNING OUT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY MID MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 280017
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
717 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TIMING DISSIPATION OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BE FORECAST
CHALLENGE. CURRENTLY VIS SAT SHOWING MOST OF AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST BUT HERE IN GRAND FORKS...SKIES BECOMING MUCH BRIGHTER AS
CLOUD LAYER THINS. WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME BUT OVERALL WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE HOW THIS WORKS AND
READJUST AT 10 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STILL HAVE PRETTY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN SOME SHRINKAGE ALONG ITS EDGES. THINK A SLOW
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING IS STILL LIKELY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
HIT AND MISS BUT MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN. WILL NOT EXTEND THE
MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOW TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY BE THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT. AS NORTH WINDS DIE DOWN AND
CLOUDS START TO THIN TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY BUT NORTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP THINGS ON THE
COOL SIDE YET. SAME STORY CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

850MB TEMPS RECOVER A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY FROM TUE INTO WED SO
GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY TOO. FOR WED
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD WITH REGION IN MID
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE AND WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CIGS WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNING OUT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY MID MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 280017
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
717 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TIMING DISSIPATION OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BE FORECAST
CHALLENGE. CURRENTLY VIS SAT SHOWING MOST OF AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST BUT HERE IN GRAND FORKS...SKIES BECOMING MUCH BRIGHTER AS
CLOUD LAYER THINS. WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME BUT OVERALL WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE HOW THIS WORKS AND
READJUST AT 10 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STILL HAVE PRETTY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN SOME SHRINKAGE ALONG ITS EDGES. THINK A SLOW
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING IS STILL LIKELY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
HIT AND MISS BUT MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN. WILL NOT EXTEND THE
MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOW TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY BE THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT. AS NORTH WINDS DIE DOWN AND
CLOUDS START TO THIN TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY BUT NORTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP THINGS ON THE
COOL SIDE YET. SAME STORY CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

850MB TEMPS RECOVER A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY FROM TUE INTO WED SO
GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY TOO. FOR WED
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD WITH REGION IN MID
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE AND WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CIGS WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNING OUT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY MID MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER






000
FXUS63 KBIS 272343
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
643 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK. DID INCREASE SKY COVER A
BIT EAST AS CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND LOOK TO DO SO FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS THIS EVENING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER MICHIGAN WHILE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. BROAD
AREA OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS LOW CONTINUES TO
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND OPEN INTO THE FLOW AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN.

ON MONDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA AND
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL REBOUND
SOME...THOUGH STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A BLOCKING WEATHER
PATTERN FEATURING A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
(HUDSON BAY LOW) AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS GENERALLY CUTOFF FROM GULF MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE LOW. ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW CAN OFTEN BRING SURPRISE CONVECTION AS WEAK IMPULSES ARE
INEVITABLY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THIS
PERIOD DRY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND FROM BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY (MID/UPPER 70S TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE
JAMES VALLEY TO LOWER 80S SOUTHWEST) TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL (MID TO
UPPER 80S) BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING KJMS.
MOSTLY CLEAR WEST WITH DECREASING CLOUDS CENTRAL. CIGS EAST SHOULD
IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 272343
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
643 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK. DID INCREASE SKY COVER A
BIT EAST AS CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND LOOK TO DO SO FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS THIS EVENING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER MICHIGAN WHILE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. BROAD
AREA OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS LOW CONTINUES TO
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND OPEN INTO THE FLOW AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN.

ON MONDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA AND
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL REBOUND
SOME...THOUGH STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A BLOCKING WEATHER
PATTERN FEATURING A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
(HUDSON BAY LOW) AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS GENERALLY CUTOFF FROM GULF MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE LOW. ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW CAN OFTEN BRING SURPRISE CONVECTION AS WEAK IMPULSES ARE
INEVITABLY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THIS
PERIOD DRY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND FROM BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY (MID/UPPER 70S TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE
JAMES VALLEY TO LOWER 80S SOUTHWEST) TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL (MID TO
UPPER 80S) BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING KJMS.
MOSTLY CLEAR WEST WITH DECREASING CLOUDS CENTRAL. CIGS EAST SHOULD
IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 272343
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
643 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK. DID INCREASE SKY COVER A
BIT EAST AS CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND LOOK TO DO SO FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS THIS EVENING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER MICHIGAN WHILE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. BROAD
AREA OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS LOW CONTINUES TO
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND OPEN INTO THE FLOW AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN.

ON MONDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA AND
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL REBOUND
SOME...THOUGH STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A BLOCKING WEATHER
PATTERN FEATURING A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
(HUDSON BAY LOW) AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS GENERALLY CUTOFF FROM GULF MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE LOW. ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW CAN OFTEN BRING SURPRISE CONVECTION AS WEAK IMPULSES ARE
INEVITABLY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THIS
PERIOD DRY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND FROM BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY (MID/UPPER 70S TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE
JAMES VALLEY TO LOWER 80S SOUTHWEST) TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL (MID TO
UPPER 80S) BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING KJMS.
MOSTLY CLEAR WEST WITH DECREASING CLOUDS CENTRAL. CIGS EAST SHOULD
IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 272343
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
643 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK. DID INCREASE SKY COVER A
BIT EAST AS CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND LOOK TO DO SO FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS THIS EVENING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER MICHIGAN WHILE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. BROAD
AREA OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS LOW CONTINUES TO
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND OPEN INTO THE FLOW AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN.

ON MONDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA AND
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL REBOUND
SOME...THOUGH STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A BLOCKING WEATHER
PATTERN FEATURING A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
(HUDSON BAY LOW) AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS GENERALLY CUTOFF FROM GULF MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE LOW. ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW CAN OFTEN BRING SURPRISE CONVECTION AS WEAK IMPULSES ARE
INEVITABLY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THIS
PERIOD DRY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND FROM BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY (MID/UPPER 70S TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE
JAMES VALLEY TO LOWER 80S SOUTHWEST) TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL (MID TO
UPPER 80S) BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING KJMS.
MOSTLY CLEAR WEST WITH DECREASING CLOUDS CENTRAL. CIGS EAST SHOULD
IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH







000
FXUS63 KFGF 272000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STILL HAVE PRETTY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN SOME SHRINKAGE ALONG ITS EDGES. THINK A SLOW
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING IS STILL LIKELY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
HIT AND MISS BUT MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN. WILL NOT EXTEND THE
MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOW TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY BE THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT. AS NORTH WINDS DIE DOWN AND
CLOUDS START TO THIN TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY BUT NORTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP THINGS ON THE
COOL SIDE YET. SAME STORY CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

850MB TEMPS RECOVER A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY FROM TUE INTO WED SO
GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY TOO. FOR WED
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD WITH REGION IN MID
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE AND WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO VFR RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
CLEARING THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA. REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE VFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 272000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STILL HAVE PRETTY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN SOME SHRINKAGE ALONG ITS EDGES. THINK A SLOW
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING IS STILL LIKELY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
HIT AND MISS BUT MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN. WILL NOT EXTEND THE
MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOW TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY BE THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT. AS NORTH WINDS DIE DOWN AND
CLOUDS START TO THIN TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY BUT NORTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP THINGS ON THE
COOL SIDE YET. SAME STORY CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

850MB TEMPS RECOVER A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY FROM TUE INTO WED SO
GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY TOO. FOR WED
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD WITH REGION IN MID
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE AND WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO VFR RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
CLEARING THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA. REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE VFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KBIS 271956
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
256 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER MICHIGAN WHILE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. BROAD
AREA OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS LOW CONTINUES TO
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND OPEN INTO THE FLOW AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN.

ON MONDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA AND
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL REBOUND
SOME...THOUGH STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A BLOCKING WEATHER
PATTERN FEATURING A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
(HUDSON BAY LOW) AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS GENERALLY CUTOFF FROM GULF MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE LOW. ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW CAN OFTEN BRING SURPRISE CONVECTION AS WEAK IMPULSES ARE
INEVITABLY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THIS
PERIOD DRY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND FROM BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY (MID/UPPER 70S TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE
JAMES VALLEY TO LOWER 80S SOUTHWEST) TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL (MID TO
UPPER 80S) BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 271956
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
256 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER MICHIGAN WHILE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. BROAD
AREA OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS LOW CONTINUES TO
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND OPEN INTO THE FLOW AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN.

ON MONDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA AND
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL REBOUND
SOME...THOUGH STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A BLOCKING WEATHER
PATTERN FEATURING A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
(HUDSON BAY LOW) AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS GENERALLY CUTOFF FROM GULF MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE LOW. ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW CAN OFTEN BRING SURPRISE CONVECTION AS WEAK IMPULSES ARE
INEVITABLY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THIS
PERIOD DRY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND FROM BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY (MID/UPPER 70S TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE
JAMES VALLEY TO LOWER 80S SOUTHWEST) TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL (MID TO
UPPER 80S) BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 271732
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CLOUDS ARE STAYING PRETTY THICK ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL INCREASE
CLOUD AMOUNTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HOW MUCH PRECIP HANGS AROUND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR THE PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OFF INTO WI DURING THE DAY...WITH THE
SFC LOW ALSO HEADING OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. THE BEST LIFT WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S...SO SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO SHOW THIS TREND. THUS...CONTINUED TO KEEP
LOW POPS GOING THROUGH 00Z. TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S
WITH NORTH WINDS LESS BREEZY THAN YESTERDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
BRING LIGHT NORTH WINDS. THE NAM WAS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS AREA AND BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
DROP QUITE NICELY TO THE LOW 50S UNDER THE SFC HIGH...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS ON MONDAY GETTING INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE. WITH NOTHING TO FORCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND NOT EVEN ANY REAL RETURN FLOW...EXPECT US TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH THEY
SHOULD SLOWLY WARM.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE EASTERN US
TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE KEEPS THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IN A VERY
QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK WAVES
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO VFR RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
CLEARING THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA. REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE VFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 271732
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CLOUDS ARE STAYING PRETTY THICK ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL INCREASE
CLOUD AMOUNTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HOW MUCH PRECIP HANGS AROUND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR THE PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OFF INTO WI DURING THE DAY...WITH THE
SFC LOW ALSO HEADING OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. THE BEST LIFT WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S...SO SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO SHOW THIS TREND. THUS...CONTINUED TO KEEP
LOW POPS GOING THROUGH 00Z. TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S
WITH NORTH WINDS LESS BREEZY THAN YESTERDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
BRING LIGHT NORTH WINDS. THE NAM WAS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS AREA AND BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
DROP QUITE NICELY TO THE LOW 50S UNDER THE SFC HIGH...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS ON MONDAY GETTING INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE. WITH NOTHING TO FORCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND NOT EVEN ANY REAL RETURN FLOW...EXPECT US TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH THEY
SHOULD SLOWLY WARM.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE EASTERN US
TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE KEEPS THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IN A VERY
QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK WAVES
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO VFR RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
CLEARING THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA. REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE VFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KBIS 271716
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1216 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE AREA IN NRLY FLOW IN THE
WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. WITH THAT...HAVE
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP INTO THIS EVENING AND HAVE DROPPED HIGH
TEMPS A BIT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ONLY CHANGE FOR MORNING UPDATE IS TO UP CLOUD COVER A BIT. CURRENT
TRENDS ARE KEEPING CLOUD COVER AROUND LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...THOUGH STILL EXPECT IT TO DECREASE SOME BY AFTERNOON.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INITIALIZED THE GRIDS WITH THE LOW CLOUD SATELLITE CHANNEL AND THAT
BEEFED UP THE CLOUD COVER A BIT ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST AND
CENTRAL. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING STRATO CU A LITTLE MORE PERVASIVE
THIS MORNING. THE TREND WILL STILL BE DECREASING CLOUDS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW LEAVES THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH A COMPENSATING NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTH DAKOTA. FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEVERAL
POCKETS OF BKN/OVC LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PER HRRR CEILING
FORECAST...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
LIFT INTO A FAIRLY LARGE SCT/BKN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY/EASTERN LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES PER
GFS/ECMWF FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER. THE
REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE DRY. 850MB TEMPS
GENERALLY THE SAME OR 1C COOLER OVER SATURDAYS. WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING MORE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY REACH THE LOWER 70S. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A CLEAR SKY AND
COOL TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 50F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A BLOCKING
WEATHER PATTERN FEATURING A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE NORTHERN PLAINS
GENERALLY CUTOFF FROM GULF MOISTURE AND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
LOW. ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW CAN OFTEN BRING SURPRISE CONVECTION AS
WEAK IMPULSES ARE INEVITABLE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE THIS PERIOD DRY. FOR TEMPERATURES EXPECT A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY TO NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.


.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 271716
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1216 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE AREA IN NRLY FLOW IN THE
WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. WITH THAT...HAVE
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP INTO THIS EVENING AND HAVE DROPPED HIGH
TEMPS A BIT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ONLY CHANGE FOR MORNING UPDATE IS TO UP CLOUD COVER A BIT. CURRENT
TRENDS ARE KEEPING CLOUD COVER AROUND LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...THOUGH STILL EXPECT IT TO DECREASE SOME BY AFTERNOON.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INITIALIZED THE GRIDS WITH THE LOW CLOUD SATELLITE CHANNEL AND THAT
BEEFED UP THE CLOUD COVER A BIT ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST AND
CENTRAL. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING STRATO CU A LITTLE MORE PERVASIVE
THIS MORNING. THE TREND WILL STILL BE DECREASING CLOUDS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW LEAVES THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH A COMPENSATING NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTH DAKOTA. FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEVERAL
POCKETS OF BKN/OVC LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PER HRRR CEILING
FORECAST...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
LIFT INTO A FAIRLY LARGE SCT/BKN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY/EASTERN LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES PER
GFS/ECMWF FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER. THE
REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE DRY. 850MB TEMPS
GENERALLY THE SAME OR 1C COOLER OVER SATURDAYS. WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING MORE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY REACH THE LOWER 70S. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A CLEAR SKY AND
COOL TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 50F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A BLOCKING
WEATHER PATTERN FEATURING A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE NORTHERN PLAINS
GENERALLY CUTOFF FROM GULF MOISTURE AND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
LOW. ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW CAN OFTEN BRING SURPRISE CONVECTION AS
WEAK IMPULSES ARE INEVITABLE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE THIS PERIOD DRY. FOR TEMPERATURES EXPECT A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY TO NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.


.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 271716
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1216 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE AREA IN NRLY FLOW IN THE
WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. WITH THAT...HAVE
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP INTO THIS EVENING AND HAVE DROPPED HIGH
TEMPS A BIT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ONLY CHANGE FOR MORNING UPDATE IS TO UP CLOUD COVER A BIT. CURRENT
TRENDS ARE KEEPING CLOUD COVER AROUND LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...THOUGH STILL EXPECT IT TO DECREASE SOME BY AFTERNOON.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INITIALIZED THE GRIDS WITH THE LOW CLOUD SATELLITE CHANNEL AND THAT
BEEFED UP THE CLOUD COVER A BIT ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST AND
CENTRAL. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING STRATO CU A LITTLE MORE PERVASIVE
THIS MORNING. THE TREND WILL STILL BE DECREASING CLOUDS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW LEAVES THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH A COMPENSATING NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTH DAKOTA. FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEVERAL
POCKETS OF BKN/OVC LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PER HRRR CEILING
FORECAST...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
LIFT INTO A FAIRLY LARGE SCT/BKN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY/EASTERN LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES PER
GFS/ECMWF FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER. THE
REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE DRY. 850MB TEMPS
GENERALLY THE SAME OR 1C COOLER OVER SATURDAYS. WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING MORE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY REACH THE LOWER 70S. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A CLEAR SKY AND
COOL TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 50F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A BLOCKING
WEATHER PATTERN FEATURING A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE NORTHERN PLAINS
GENERALLY CUTOFF FROM GULF MOISTURE AND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
LOW. ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW CAN OFTEN BRING SURPRISE CONVECTION AS
WEAK IMPULSES ARE INEVITABLE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE THIS PERIOD DRY. FOR TEMPERATURES EXPECT A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY TO NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.


.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 271716
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1216 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE AREA IN NRLY FLOW IN THE
WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. WITH THAT...HAVE
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP INTO THIS EVENING AND HAVE DROPPED HIGH
TEMPS A BIT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ONLY CHANGE FOR MORNING UPDATE IS TO UP CLOUD COVER A BIT. CURRENT
TRENDS ARE KEEPING CLOUD COVER AROUND LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...THOUGH STILL EXPECT IT TO DECREASE SOME BY AFTERNOON.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INITIALIZED THE GRIDS WITH THE LOW CLOUD SATELLITE CHANNEL AND THAT
BEEFED UP THE CLOUD COVER A BIT ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST AND
CENTRAL. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING STRATO CU A LITTLE MORE PERVASIVE
THIS MORNING. THE TREND WILL STILL BE DECREASING CLOUDS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW LEAVES THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH A COMPENSATING NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTH DAKOTA. FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEVERAL
POCKETS OF BKN/OVC LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PER HRRR CEILING
FORECAST...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
LIFT INTO A FAIRLY LARGE SCT/BKN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY/EASTERN LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES PER
GFS/ECMWF FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER. THE
REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE DRY. 850MB TEMPS
GENERALLY THE SAME OR 1C COOLER OVER SATURDAYS. WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING MORE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY REACH THE LOWER 70S. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A CLEAR SKY AND
COOL TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 50F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A BLOCKING
WEATHER PATTERN FEATURING A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE NORTHERN PLAINS
GENERALLY CUTOFF FROM GULF MOISTURE AND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
LOW. ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW CAN OFTEN BRING SURPRISE CONVECTION AS
WEAK IMPULSES ARE INEVITABLE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE THIS PERIOD DRY. FOR TEMPERATURES EXPECT A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY TO NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.


.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 271443
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
943 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND BREEZY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND TODAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NORTHERN OR
NORTHWEST AREAS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECREASING AFTERNOON
CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HOW MUCH PRECIP HANGS AROUND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR THE PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OFF INTO WI DURING THE DAY...WITH THE
SFC LOW ALSO HEADING OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. THE BEST LIFT WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S...SO SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO SHOW THIS TREND. THUS...CONTINUED TO KEEP
LOW POPS GOING THROUGH 00Z. TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S
WITH NORTH WINDS LESS BREEZY THAN YESTERDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
BRING LIGHT NORTH WINDS. THE NAM WAS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS AREA AND BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
DROP QUITE NICELY TO THE LOW 50S UNDER THE SFC HIGH...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS ON MONDAY GETTING INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE. WITH NOTHING TO FORCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND NOT EVEN ANY REAL RETURN FLOW...EXPECT US TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH THEY
SHOULD SLOWLY WARM.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE EASTERN US
TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE KEEPS THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IN A VERY
QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK WAVES
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR TO A FEW IFR CIGS COVER THE AREA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THINK THESE LOWER CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE RECOVERING TO
VFR BY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT JUST KEPT A MENTION
FOR KBJI AS THE COVERAGE WILL BE HIT AND MISS AND EAST OF THE TAF
SITES. THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY THE EVENING.
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS FOR A WHILE
LONGER TODAY...BUT SHOULD DROP DOWN BELOW 12 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 271443
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
943 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND BREEZY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND TODAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NORTHERN OR
NORTHWEST AREAS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECREASING AFTERNOON
CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HOW MUCH PRECIP HANGS AROUND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR THE PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OFF INTO WI DURING THE DAY...WITH THE
SFC LOW ALSO HEADING OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. THE BEST LIFT WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S...SO SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO SHOW THIS TREND. THUS...CONTINUED TO KEEP
LOW POPS GOING THROUGH 00Z. TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S
WITH NORTH WINDS LESS BREEZY THAN YESTERDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
BRING LIGHT NORTH WINDS. THE NAM WAS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS AREA AND BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
DROP QUITE NICELY TO THE LOW 50S UNDER THE SFC HIGH...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS ON MONDAY GETTING INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE. WITH NOTHING TO FORCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND NOT EVEN ANY REAL RETURN FLOW...EXPECT US TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH THEY
SHOULD SLOWLY WARM.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE EASTERN US
TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE KEEPS THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IN A VERY
QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK WAVES
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR TO A FEW IFR CIGS COVER THE AREA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THINK THESE LOWER CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE RECOVERING TO
VFR BY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT JUST KEPT A MENTION
FOR KBJI AS THE COVERAGE WILL BE HIT AND MISS AND EAST OF THE TAF
SITES. THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY THE EVENING.
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS FOR A WHILE
LONGER TODAY...BUT SHOULD DROP DOWN BELOW 12 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KBIS 271427
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
927 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ONLY CHANGE FOR MORNING UPDATE IS TO UP CLOUD COVER A BIT. CURRENT
TRENDS ARE KEEPING CLOUD COVER AROUND LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...THOUGH STILL EXPECT IT TO DECREASE SOME BY AFTERNOON.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INITIALIZED THE GRIDS WITH THE LOW CLOUD SATELLITE CHANNEL AND THAT
BEEFED UP THE CLOUD COVER A BIT ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST AND
CENTRAL. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING STRATO CU A LITTLE MORE PERVASIVE
THIS MORNING. THE TREND WILL STILL BE DECREASING CLOUDS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW LEAVES THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH A COMPENSATING NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTH DAKOTA. FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEVERAL
POCKETS OF BKN/OVC LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PER HRRR CEILING
FORECAST...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
LIFT INTO A FAIRLY LARGE SCT/BKN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY/EASTERN LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES PER
GFS/ECMWF FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER. THE
REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE DRY. 850MB TEMPS
GENERALLY THE SAME OR 1C COOLER OVER SATURDAYS. WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING MORE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY REACH THE LOWER 70S. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A CLEAR SKY AND
COOL TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 50F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A BLOCKING
WEATHER PATTERN FEATURING A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE NORTHERN PLAINS
GENERALLY CUTOFF FROM GULF MOISTURE AND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
LOW. ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW CAN OFTEN BRING SURPRISE CONVECTION AS
WEAK IMPULSES ARE INEVITABLE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE THIS PERIOD DRY. FOR TEMPERATURES EXPECT A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY TO NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCT/BKN MVFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING
THEN GRADUALLY LIFT TO LOW VFR BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z...EXCEPT AT KJMS
WHERE THE MVFR CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 21Z SUNDAY. AS THE
MVFR CIGS LIFT TO VFR...EXPECT A WIDESPREAD SCT/BKN STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. A CLEARING SKY WILL COMMENCE
NEAR/AROUND SUNSET. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10KT AND 15KT
THROUGH SUNSET THEN BECOMING LIGHT THEREAFTER.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KFGF 271136
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...BUT OVERALL KEPT
SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HOW MUCH PRECIP HANGS AROUND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR THE PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OFF INTO WI DURING THE DAY...WITH THE
SFC LOW ALSO HEADING OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. THE BEST LIFT WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S...SO SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO SHOW THIS TREND. THUS...CONTINUED TO KEEP
LOW POPS GOING THROUGH 00Z. TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S
WITH NORTH WINDS LESS BREEZY THAN YESTERDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
BRING LIGHT NORTH WINDS. THE NAM WAS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS AREA AND BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
DROP QUITE NICELY TO THE LOW 50S UNDER THE SFC HIGH...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS ON MONDAY GETTING INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE. WITH NOTHING TO FORCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND NOT EVEN ANY REAL RETURN FLOW...EXPECT US TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH THEY
SHOULD SLOWLY WARM.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE EASTERN US
TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE KEEPS THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IN A VERY
QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK WAVES
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR TO A FEW IFR CIGS COVER THE AREA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THINK THESE LOWER CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE RECOVERING TO
VFR BY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT JUST KEPT A MENTION
FOR KBJI AS THE COVERAGE WILL BE HIT AND MISS AND EAST OF THE TAF
SITES. THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY THE EVENING.
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS FOR A WHILE
LONGER TODAY...BUT SHOULD DROP DOWN BELOW 12 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 271136
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...BUT OVERALL KEPT
SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HOW MUCH PRECIP HANGS AROUND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR THE PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OFF INTO WI DURING THE DAY...WITH THE
SFC LOW ALSO HEADING OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. THE BEST LIFT WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S...SO SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO SHOW THIS TREND. THUS...CONTINUED TO KEEP
LOW POPS GOING THROUGH 00Z. TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S
WITH NORTH WINDS LESS BREEZY THAN YESTERDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
BRING LIGHT NORTH WINDS. THE NAM WAS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS AREA AND BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
DROP QUITE NICELY TO THE LOW 50S UNDER THE SFC HIGH...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS ON MONDAY GETTING INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE. WITH NOTHING TO FORCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND NOT EVEN ANY REAL RETURN FLOW...EXPECT US TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH THEY
SHOULD SLOWLY WARM.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE EASTERN US
TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE KEEPS THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IN A VERY
QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK WAVES
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR TO A FEW IFR CIGS COVER THE AREA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THINK THESE LOWER CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE RECOVERING TO
VFR BY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT JUST KEPT A MENTION
FOR KBJI AS THE COVERAGE WILL BE HIT AND MISS AND EAST OF THE TAF
SITES. THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY THE EVENING.
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS FOR A WHILE
LONGER TODAY...BUT SHOULD DROP DOWN BELOW 12 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KBIS 271128
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
628 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INITIALIZED THE GRIDS WITH THE LOW CLOUD SATELLITE CHANNEL AND THAT
BEEFED UP THE CLOUD COVER A BIT ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST AND
CENTRAL. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING STRATO CU A LITTLE MORE PERVASIVE
THIS MORNING. THE TREND WILL STILL BE DECREASING CLOUDS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW LEAVES THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH A COMPENSATING NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTH DAKOTA. FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEVERAL
POCKETS OF BKN/OVC LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PER HRRR CEILING
FORECAST...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
LIFT INTO A FAIRLY LARGE SCT/BKN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY/EASTERN LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES PER
GFS/ECMWF FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER. THE
REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE DRY. 850MB TEMPS
GENERALLY THE SAME OR 1C COOLER OVER SATURDAYS. WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING MORE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY REACH THE LOWER 70S. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A CLEAR SKY AND
COOL TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 50F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A BLOCKING
WEATHER PATTERN FEATURING A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE NORTHERN PLAINS
GENERALLY CUTOFF FROM GULF MOISTURE AND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
LOW. ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW CAN OFTEN BRING SURPRISE CONVECTION AS
WEAK IMPULSES ARE INEVITABLE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE THIS PERIOD DRY. FOR TEMPERATURES EXPECT A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY TO NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCT/BKN MVFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING
THEN GRADUALLY LIFT TO LOW VFR BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z...EXCEPT AT KJMS
WHERE THE MVFR CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 21Z SUNDAY. AS THE
MVFR CIGS LIFT TO VFR...EXPECT A WIDESPREAD SCT/BKN STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. A CLEARING SKY WILL COMMENCE
NEAR/AROUND SUNSET. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10KT AND 15KT
THROUGH SUNSET THEN BECOMING LIGHT THEREAFTER.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 270809
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
309 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH A COMPENSATING NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTH DAKOTA. FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEVERAL
POCKETS OF BKN/OVC LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PER HRRR CEILING
FORECAST...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
LIFT INTO A FAIRLY LARGE SCT/BKN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY/EASTERN LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES PER
GFS/ECMWF FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER. THE
REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE DRY. 850MB TEMPS
GENERALLY THE SAME OR 1C COOLER OVER SATURDAYS. WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING MORE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY REACH THE LOWER 70S. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A CLEAR SKY AND
COOL TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 50F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A BLOCKING
WEATHER PATTERN FEATURING A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE NORTHERN PLAINS
GENERALLY CUTOFF FROM GULF MOISTURE AND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
LOW. ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW CAN OFTEN BRING SURPRISE CONVECTION AS
WEAK IMPULSES ARE INEVITABLE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE THIS PERIOD DRY. FOR TEMPERATURES EXPECT A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY TO NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCT/BKN LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
15Z SUNDAY...THEN TREND TOWARD AN ALL SCT/BKN LOW VFR BY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKC SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TODAY RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 15KT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 270809
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
309 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH A COMPENSATING NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTH DAKOTA. FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEVERAL
POCKETS OF BKN/OVC LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PER HRRR CEILING
FORECAST...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
LIFT INTO A FAIRLY LARGE SCT/BKN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY/EASTERN LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES PER
GFS/ECMWF FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER. THE
REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE DRY. 850MB TEMPS
GENERALLY THE SAME OR 1C COOLER OVER SATURDAYS. WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING MORE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY REACH THE LOWER 70S. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A CLEAR SKY AND
COOL TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 50F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A BLOCKING
WEATHER PATTERN FEATURING A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE NORTHERN PLAINS
GENERALLY CUTOFF FROM GULF MOISTURE AND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
LOW. ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW CAN OFTEN BRING SURPRISE CONVECTION AS
WEAK IMPULSES ARE INEVITABLE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE THIS PERIOD DRY. FOR TEMPERATURES EXPECT A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY TO NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCT/BKN LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
15Z SUNDAY...THEN TREND TOWARD AN ALL SCT/BKN LOW VFR BY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKC SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TODAY RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 15KT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 270746
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HOW MUCH PRECIP HANGS AROUND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR THE PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OFF INTO WI DURING THE DAY...WITH THE
SFC LOW ALSO HEADING OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. THE BEST LIFT WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S...SO SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO SHOW THIS TREND. THUS...CONTINUED TO KEEP
LOW POPS GOING THROUGH 00Z. TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S
WITH NORTH WINDS LESS BREEZY THAN YESTERDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
BRING LIGHT NORTH WINDS. THE NAM WAS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS AREA AND BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
DROP QUITE NICELY TO THE LOW 50S UNDER THE SFC HIGH...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS ON MONDAY GETTING INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE. WITH NOTHING TO FORCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND NOT EVEN ANY REAL RETURN FLOW...EXPECT US TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH THEY
SHOULD SLOWLY WARM.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE EASTERN US
TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE KEEPS THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IN A VERY
QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK WAVES
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SOME SCATTERED MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RISE INTO THE VFR RANGE IN ALL BUT THE FAR EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 30KT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 270458
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1158 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS AREAS OF SCT/BKN LOW CIGS OVER
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THE
HRRR/RAP13/NAM12 CAPTURE THIS AND PUSH IT SOUTH...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE. SURFACE MAP INDICATES
A WEAKENING 3HR PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN OVERNIGHT PER RAP13.
THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH CONTINUING.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES
NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK...AND
WAS BLENDED TO THE OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC AS ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE INTO MINNESOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE DIURNAL DOWNTREND IN WINDS AND CONVECTION IS SLOWLY BEGINNING
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH
THE ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE WINNIPEG
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO WRN MINNESOTA
BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH COMPACT LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE
LOW...MAINLY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FOR TONIGHT...LOW WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST PUSHING INTO
NRN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL AND WIND WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE BY AROUND SUNSET...THOUGH SOME BREEZY LOCATIONS MAY
LINGER TOWARDS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY TOWARDS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...A PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND LOW SCOOTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BRINGING DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
AS COOLER AIRMASS REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL HUDSON BAY LOW AND A WEST COAST/ROCKIES RIDGE...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THUS THE STATE WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER.

THE VARIOUS MODELS DEPICT WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW OFF AND ON DURING THE PERIOD...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTIONING.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...WARMING TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT BRIEF IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP...BUT HAVE DECIDED
TO METWATCH FOR THIS AND NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AS THE DURATION
WOULD BE BRIEF AND AREAL COVERAGE LIMITED. THE MVFR CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO LOW VFR AFTER 15Z SUNDAY WITH A CLEARING SKY
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 270458
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1158 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS AREAS OF SCT/BKN LOW CIGS OVER
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THE
HRRR/RAP13/NAM12 CAPTURE THIS AND PUSH IT SOUTH...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE. SURFACE MAP INDICATES
A WEAKENING 3HR PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN OVERNIGHT PER RAP13.
THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH CONTINUING.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES
NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK...AND
WAS BLENDED TO THE OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC AS ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE INTO MINNESOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE DIURNAL DOWNTREND IN WINDS AND CONVECTION IS SLOWLY BEGINNING
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH
THE ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE WINNIPEG
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO WRN MINNESOTA
BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH COMPACT LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE
LOW...MAINLY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FOR TONIGHT...LOW WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST PUSHING INTO
NRN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL AND WIND WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE BY AROUND SUNSET...THOUGH SOME BREEZY LOCATIONS MAY
LINGER TOWARDS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY TOWARDS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...A PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND LOW SCOOTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BRINGING DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
AS COOLER AIRMASS REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL HUDSON BAY LOW AND A WEST COAST/ROCKIES RIDGE...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THUS THE STATE WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER.

THE VARIOUS MODELS DEPICT WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW OFF AND ON DURING THE PERIOD...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTIONING.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...WARMING TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT BRIEF IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP...BUT HAVE DECIDED
TO METWATCH FOR THIS AND NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AS THE DURATION
WOULD BE BRIEF AND AREAL COVERAGE LIMITED. THE MVFR CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO LOW VFR AFTER 15Z SUNDAY WITH A CLEARING SKY
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 270458
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1158 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS AREAS OF SCT/BKN LOW CIGS OVER
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THE
HRRR/RAP13/NAM12 CAPTURE THIS AND PUSH IT SOUTH...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE. SURFACE MAP INDICATES
A WEAKENING 3HR PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN OVERNIGHT PER RAP13.
THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH CONTINUING.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES
NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK...AND
WAS BLENDED TO THE OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC AS ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE INTO MINNESOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE DIURNAL DOWNTREND IN WINDS AND CONVECTION IS SLOWLY BEGINNING
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH
THE ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE WINNIPEG
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO WRN MINNESOTA
BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH COMPACT LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE
LOW...MAINLY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FOR TONIGHT...LOW WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST PUSHING INTO
NRN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL AND WIND WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE BY AROUND SUNSET...THOUGH SOME BREEZY LOCATIONS MAY
LINGER TOWARDS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY TOWARDS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...A PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND LOW SCOOTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BRINGING DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
AS COOLER AIRMASS REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL HUDSON BAY LOW AND A WEST COAST/ROCKIES RIDGE...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THUS THE STATE WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER.

THE VARIOUS MODELS DEPICT WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW OFF AND ON DURING THE PERIOD...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTIONING.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...WARMING TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT BRIEF IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP...BUT HAVE DECIDED
TO METWATCH FOR THIS AND NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AS THE DURATION
WOULD BE BRIEF AND AREAL COVERAGE LIMITED. THE MVFR CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO LOW VFR AFTER 15Z SUNDAY WITH A CLEARING SKY
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 270458
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1158 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS AREAS OF SCT/BKN LOW CIGS OVER
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THE
HRRR/RAP13/NAM12 CAPTURE THIS AND PUSH IT SOUTH...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE. SURFACE MAP INDICATES
A WEAKENING 3HR PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN OVERNIGHT PER RAP13.
THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH CONTINUING.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES
NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK...AND
WAS BLENDED TO THE OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC AS ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE INTO MINNESOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE DIURNAL DOWNTREND IN WINDS AND CONVECTION IS SLOWLY BEGINNING
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH
THE ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE WINNIPEG
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO WRN MINNESOTA
BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH COMPACT LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE
LOW...MAINLY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FOR TONIGHT...LOW WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST PUSHING INTO
NRN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL AND WIND WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE BY AROUND SUNSET...THOUGH SOME BREEZY LOCATIONS MAY
LINGER TOWARDS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY TOWARDS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...A PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND LOW SCOOTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BRINGING DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
AS COOLER AIRMASS REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL HUDSON BAY LOW AND A WEST COAST/ROCKIES RIDGE...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THUS THE STATE WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER.

THE VARIOUS MODELS DEPICT WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW OFF AND ON DURING THE PERIOD...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTIONING.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...WARMING TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT BRIEF IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP...BUT HAVE DECIDED
TO METWATCH FOR THIS AND NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AS THE DURATION
WOULD BE BRIEF AND AREAL COVERAGE LIMITED. THE MVFR CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO LOW VFR AFTER 15Z SUNDAY WITH A CLEARING SKY
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 270427
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1127 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH MUCAPE STILL AROUND 500 J/KG OVER NW MN/EXTREME
NORTHEAST ND. WE ARE STILL GETTING SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES IN NW
MN...AND WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVING DOWN
OVERNIGHT...WILL ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH THE
NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH...SO NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH RAIN ANYWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FA AS
UPPER LOW TRACKS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER THEN DROPS SE FROM
LAKE OF THE WOODS TO DLH BY MORNING. BEST CONCENTRATION LOOKS TO
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 BUT WILL MAINTAIN JUST CHC POPS.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL AREA FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WHERE MORE MODEST INSTABILITY AND
CAPE EXISTS. WILL PUT IN SOME LOW POPS THIS AREA REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA BY EVENING.
WITH CELLULAR NATURE OF CLOUD COVER FEEL MOST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONLY CATCH
IS THAT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LOW WHICH HAS DEEPER MOISTURE INVOLVED. AS THE LOW DROPS SE LATER
TONIGHT THIS FEATURE MAY LINGER SOME SHOWERS LONGER. WITH
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. TO BE SAFE
MAINTAINED SOME LOW END POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SOME CLOUDS AND A
BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR INTO THE 50S.

TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH MOIST
LAYER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE SPOTTY SHRA SUNDAY. WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S WOULD NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET
MUCH WARMER.

SHOWERS END SUNDAY EVENING AS ALL FORCING EXITS TO THE SE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A BIT BLO AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE UNDER MID LEVEL NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SOME SCATTERED MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RISE INTO THE VFR RANGE IN ALL BUT THE FAR EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 30KT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 270427
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1127 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH MUCAPE STILL AROUND 500 J/KG OVER NW MN/EXTREME
NORTHEAST ND. WE ARE STILL GETTING SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES IN NW
MN...AND WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVING DOWN
OVERNIGHT...WILL ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH THE
NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH...SO NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH RAIN ANYWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FA AS
UPPER LOW TRACKS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER THEN DROPS SE FROM
LAKE OF THE WOODS TO DLH BY MORNING. BEST CONCENTRATION LOOKS TO
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 BUT WILL MAINTAIN JUST CHC POPS.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL AREA FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WHERE MORE MODEST INSTABILITY AND
CAPE EXISTS. WILL PUT IN SOME LOW POPS THIS AREA REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA BY EVENING.
WITH CELLULAR NATURE OF CLOUD COVER FEEL MOST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONLY CATCH
IS THAT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LOW WHICH HAS DEEPER MOISTURE INVOLVED. AS THE LOW DROPS SE LATER
TONIGHT THIS FEATURE MAY LINGER SOME SHOWERS LONGER. WITH
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. TO BE SAFE
MAINTAINED SOME LOW END POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SOME CLOUDS AND A
BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR INTO THE 50S.

TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH MOIST
LAYER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE SPOTTY SHRA SUNDAY. WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S WOULD NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET
MUCH WARMER.

SHOWERS END SUNDAY EVENING AS ALL FORCING EXITS TO THE SE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A BIT BLO AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE UNDER MID LEVEL NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SOME SCATTERED MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RISE INTO THE VFR RANGE IN ALL BUT THE FAR EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 30KT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 270311
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1011 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NO CHANGES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FA AS
UPPER LOW TRACKS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER THEN DROPS SE FROM
LAKE OF THE WOODS TO DLH BY MORNING. BEST CONCENTRATION LOOKS TO
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 BUT WILL MAINTAIN JUST CHC POPS.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL AREA FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WHERE MORE MODEST INSTABILITY AND
CAPE EXISTS. WILL PUT IN SOME LOW POPS THIS AREA REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA BY EVENING.
WITH CELLULAR NATURE OF CLOUD COVER FEEL MOST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONLY CATCH
IS THAT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LOW WHICH HAS DEEPER MOISTURE INVOLVED. AS THE LOW DROPS SE LATER
TONIGHT THIS FEATURE MAY LINGER SOME SHOWERS LONGER. WITH
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. TO BE SAFE
MAINTAINED SOME LOW END POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SOME CLOUDS AND A
BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR INTO THE 50S.

TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH MOIST
LAYER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE SPOTTY SHRA SUNDAY. WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S WOULD NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET
MUCH WARMER.

SHOWERS END SUNDAY EVENING AS ALL FORCING EXITS TO THE SE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A BIT BLO AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE UNDER MID LEVEL NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CONDITIONS COULD FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY LATER TONIGHT ONCE DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATES OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN AROUND
15-20KT TONIGHT AND INCREASE A BIT AND SHIFT NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT MAINLY SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A CLAP OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT NOT WORTH A MENTION WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 270311
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1011 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NO CHANGES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FA AS
UPPER LOW TRACKS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER THEN DROPS SE FROM
LAKE OF THE WOODS TO DLH BY MORNING. BEST CONCENTRATION LOOKS TO
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 BUT WILL MAINTAIN JUST CHC POPS.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL AREA FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WHERE MORE MODEST INSTABILITY AND
CAPE EXISTS. WILL PUT IN SOME LOW POPS THIS AREA REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA BY EVENING.
WITH CELLULAR NATURE OF CLOUD COVER FEEL MOST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONLY CATCH
IS THAT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LOW WHICH HAS DEEPER MOISTURE INVOLVED. AS THE LOW DROPS SE LATER
TONIGHT THIS FEATURE MAY LINGER SOME SHOWERS LONGER. WITH
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. TO BE SAFE
MAINTAINED SOME LOW END POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SOME CLOUDS AND A
BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR INTO THE 50S.

TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH MOIST
LAYER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE SPOTTY SHRA SUNDAY. WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S WOULD NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET
MUCH WARMER.

SHOWERS END SUNDAY EVENING AS ALL FORCING EXITS TO THE SE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A BIT BLO AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE UNDER MID LEVEL NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CONDITIONS COULD FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY LATER TONIGHT ONCE DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATES OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN AROUND
15-20KT TONIGHT AND INCREASE A BIT AND SHIFT NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT MAINLY SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A CLAP OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT NOT WORTH A MENTION WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 270311
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1011 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NO CHANGES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FA AS
UPPER LOW TRACKS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER THEN DROPS SE FROM
LAKE OF THE WOODS TO DLH BY MORNING. BEST CONCENTRATION LOOKS TO
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 BUT WILL MAINTAIN JUST CHC POPS.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL AREA FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WHERE MORE MODEST INSTABILITY AND
CAPE EXISTS. WILL PUT IN SOME LOW POPS THIS AREA REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA BY EVENING.
WITH CELLULAR NATURE OF CLOUD COVER FEEL MOST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONLY CATCH
IS THAT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LOW WHICH HAS DEEPER MOISTURE INVOLVED. AS THE LOW DROPS SE LATER
TONIGHT THIS FEATURE MAY LINGER SOME SHOWERS LONGER. WITH
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. TO BE SAFE
MAINTAINED SOME LOW END POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SOME CLOUDS AND A
BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR INTO THE 50S.

TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH MOIST
LAYER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE SPOTTY SHRA SUNDAY. WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S WOULD NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET
MUCH WARMER.

SHOWERS END SUNDAY EVENING AS ALL FORCING EXITS TO THE SE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A BIT BLO AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE UNDER MID LEVEL NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CONDITIONS COULD FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY LATER TONIGHT ONCE DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATES OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN AROUND
15-20KT TONIGHT AND INCREASE A BIT AND SHIFT NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT MAINLY SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A CLAP OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT NOT WORTH A MENTION WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 270311
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1011 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NO CHANGES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FA AS
UPPER LOW TRACKS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER THEN DROPS SE FROM
LAKE OF THE WOODS TO DLH BY MORNING. BEST CONCENTRATION LOOKS TO
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 BUT WILL MAINTAIN JUST CHC POPS.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL AREA FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WHERE MORE MODEST INSTABILITY AND
CAPE EXISTS. WILL PUT IN SOME LOW POPS THIS AREA REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA BY EVENING.
WITH CELLULAR NATURE OF CLOUD COVER FEEL MOST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONLY CATCH
IS THAT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LOW WHICH HAS DEEPER MOISTURE INVOLVED. AS THE LOW DROPS SE LATER
TONIGHT THIS FEATURE MAY LINGER SOME SHOWERS LONGER. WITH
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. TO BE SAFE
MAINTAINED SOME LOW END POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SOME CLOUDS AND A
BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR INTO THE 50S.

TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH MOIST
LAYER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE SPOTTY SHRA SUNDAY. WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S WOULD NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET
MUCH WARMER.

SHOWERS END SUNDAY EVENING AS ALL FORCING EXITS TO THE SE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A BIT BLO AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE UNDER MID LEVEL NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CONDITIONS COULD FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY LATER TONIGHT ONCE DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATES OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN AROUND
15-20KT TONIGHT AND INCREASE A BIT AND SHIFT NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT MAINLY SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A CLAP OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT NOT WORTH A MENTION WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 270253
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
953 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK...AND
WAS BLENDED TO THE OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC AS ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE INTO MINNESOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE DIURNAL DOWNTREND IN WINDS AND CONVECTION IS SLOWLY BEGINNING
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH
THE ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE WINNIPEG
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO WRN MINNESOTA
BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH COMPACT LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE
LOW...MAINLY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FOR TONIGHT...LOW WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST PUSHING INTO
NRN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL AND WIND WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE BY AROUND SUNSET...THOUGH SOME BREEZY LOCATIONS MAY
LINGER TOWARDS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY TOWARDS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...A PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND LOW SCOOTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BRINGING DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
AS COOLER AIRMASS REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL HUDSON BAY LOW AND A WEST COAST/ROCKIES RIDGE...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THUS THE STATE WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER.

THE VARIOUS MODELS DEPICT WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW OFF AND ON DURING THE PERIOD...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTIONING.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...WARMING TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS AND CUMULUS FIELDS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MVFR STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN AND
WESTERN MANITOBA WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 270253
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
953 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK...AND
WAS BLENDED TO THE OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC AS ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE INTO MINNESOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE DIURNAL DOWNTREND IN WINDS AND CONVECTION IS SLOWLY BEGINNING
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH
THE ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE WINNIPEG
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO WRN MINNESOTA
BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH COMPACT LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE
LOW...MAINLY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FOR TONIGHT...LOW WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST PUSHING INTO
NRN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL AND WIND WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE BY AROUND SUNSET...THOUGH SOME BREEZY LOCATIONS MAY
LINGER TOWARDS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY TOWARDS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...A PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND LOW SCOOTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BRINGING DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
AS COOLER AIRMASS REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL HUDSON BAY LOW AND A WEST COAST/ROCKIES RIDGE...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THUS THE STATE WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER.

THE VARIOUS MODELS DEPICT WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW OFF AND ON DURING THE PERIOD...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTIONING.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...WARMING TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS AND CUMULUS FIELDS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MVFR STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN AND
WESTERN MANITOBA WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 270253
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
953 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK...AND
WAS BLENDED TO THE OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC AS ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE INTO MINNESOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE DIURNAL DOWNTREND IN WINDS AND CONVECTION IS SLOWLY BEGINNING
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH
THE ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE WINNIPEG
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO WRN MINNESOTA
BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH COMPACT LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE
LOW...MAINLY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FOR TONIGHT...LOW WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST PUSHING INTO
NRN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL AND WIND WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE BY AROUND SUNSET...THOUGH SOME BREEZY LOCATIONS MAY
LINGER TOWARDS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY TOWARDS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...A PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND LOW SCOOTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BRINGING DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
AS COOLER AIRMASS REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL HUDSON BAY LOW AND A WEST COAST/ROCKIES RIDGE...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THUS THE STATE WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER.

THE VARIOUS MODELS DEPICT WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW OFF AND ON DURING THE PERIOD...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTIONING.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...WARMING TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS AND CUMULUS FIELDS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MVFR STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN AND
WESTERN MANITOBA WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 270253
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
953 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK...AND
WAS BLENDED TO THE OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC AS ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE INTO MINNESOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE DIURNAL DOWNTREND IN WINDS AND CONVECTION IS SLOWLY BEGINNING
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH
THE ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE WINNIPEG
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO WRN MINNESOTA
BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH COMPACT LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE
LOW...MAINLY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FOR TONIGHT...LOW WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST PUSHING INTO
NRN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL AND WIND WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE BY AROUND SUNSET...THOUGH SOME BREEZY LOCATIONS MAY
LINGER TOWARDS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY TOWARDS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...A PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND LOW SCOOTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BRINGING DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
AS COOLER AIRMASS REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL HUDSON BAY LOW AND A WEST COAST/ROCKIES RIDGE...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THUS THE STATE WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER.

THE VARIOUS MODELS DEPICT WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW OFF AND ON DURING THE PERIOD...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTIONING.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...WARMING TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS AND CUMULUS FIELDS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MVFR STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN AND
WESTERN MANITOBA WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KFGF 270018
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
718 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NO CHANGES THIS EVENING...WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND A FEW
RUMBLES DYING AFTER AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FA AS
UPPER LOW TRACKS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER THEN DROPS SE FROM
LAKE OF THE WOODS TO DLH BY MORNING. BEST CONCENTRATION LOOKS TO
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 BUT WILL MAINTAIN JUST CHC POPS.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL AREA FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WHERE MORE MODEST INSTABILITY AND
CAPE EXISTS. WILL PUT IN SOME LOW POPS THIS AREA REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA BY EVENING.
WITH CELLULAR NATURE OF CLOUD COVER FEEL MOST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONLY CATCH
IS THAT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LOW WHICH HAS DEEPER MOISTURE INVOLVED. AS THE LOW DROPS SE LATER
TONIGHT THIS FEATURE MAY LINGER SOME SHOWERS LONGER. WITH
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. TO BE SAFE
MAINTAINED SOME LOW END POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SOME CLOUDS AND A
BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR INTO THE 50S.

TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH MOIST
LAYER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE SPOTTY SHRA SUNDAY. WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S WOULD NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET
MUCH WARMER.

SHOWERS END SUNDAY EVENING AS ALL FORCING EXITS TO THE SE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A BIT BLO AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE UNDER MID LEVEL NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CONDITIONS COULD FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY LATER TONIGHT ONCE DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATES OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN AROUND
15-20KT TONIGHT AND INCREASE A BIT AND SHIFT NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT MAINLY SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A CLAP OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT NOT WORTH A MENTION WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 270018
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
718 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NO CHANGES THIS EVENING...WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND A FEW
RUMBLES DYING AFTER AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FA AS
UPPER LOW TRACKS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER THEN DROPS SE FROM
LAKE OF THE WOODS TO DLH BY MORNING. BEST CONCENTRATION LOOKS TO
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 BUT WILL MAINTAIN JUST CHC POPS.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL AREA FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WHERE MORE MODEST INSTABILITY AND
CAPE EXISTS. WILL PUT IN SOME LOW POPS THIS AREA REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA BY EVENING.
WITH CELLULAR NATURE OF CLOUD COVER FEEL MOST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONLY CATCH
IS THAT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LOW WHICH HAS DEEPER MOISTURE INVOLVED. AS THE LOW DROPS SE LATER
TONIGHT THIS FEATURE MAY LINGER SOME SHOWERS LONGER. WITH
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. TO BE SAFE
MAINTAINED SOME LOW END POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SOME CLOUDS AND A
BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR INTO THE 50S.

TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH MOIST
LAYER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE SPOTTY SHRA SUNDAY. WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S WOULD NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET
MUCH WARMER.

SHOWERS END SUNDAY EVENING AS ALL FORCING EXITS TO THE SE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A BIT BLO AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE UNDER MID LEVEL NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CONDITIONS COULD FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY LATER TONIGHT ONCE DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATES OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN AROUND
15-20KT TONIGHT AND INCREASE A BIT AND SHIFT NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT MAINLY SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A CLAP OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT NOT WORTH A MENTION WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KBIS 270004
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
704 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE DIURNAL DOWNTREND IN WINDS AND CONVECTION IS SLOWLY BEGINNING
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH
THE ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE WINNIPEG
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO WRN MINNESOTA
BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH COMPACT LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE
LOW...MAINLY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FOR TONIGHT...LOW WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST PUSHING INTO
NRN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL AND WIND WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE BY AROUND SUNSET...THOUGH SOME BREEZY LOCATIONS MAY
LINGER TOWARDS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY TOWARDS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...A PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND LOW SCOOTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BRINGING DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
AS COOLER AIRMASS REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL HUDSON BAY LOW AND A WEST COAST/ROCKIES RIDGE...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THUS THE STATE WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER.

THE VARIOUS MODELS DEPICT WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW OFF AND ON DURING THE PERIOD...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTIONING.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...WARMING TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE KISN AND KMOT VICINITIES. VFR CEILINGS MAY SLOWLY
LOWER TO NEAR MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS ON THE BACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA MOVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KFGF 261959
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
259 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FA AS
UPPER LOW TRACKS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER THEN DROPS SE FROM
LAKE OF THE WOODS TO DLH BY MORNING. BEST CONCENTRATION LOOKS TO
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 BUT WILL MAINTAIN JUST CHC POPS.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL AREA FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WHERE MORE MODEST INSTABILITY AND
CAPE EXISTS. WILL PUT IN SOME LOW POPS THIS AREA REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA BY EVENING.
WITH CELLULAR NATURE OF CLOUD COVER FEEL MOST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONLY CATCH
IS THAT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LOW WHICH HAS DEEPER MOISTURE INVOLVED. AS THE LOW DROPS SE LATER
TONIGHT THIS FEATURE MAY LINGER SOME SHOWERS LONGER. WITH
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. TO BE SAFE
MAINTAINED SOME LOW END POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SOME CLOUDS AND A
BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR INTO THE 50S.

TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH MOIST
LAYER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE SPOTTY SHRA SUNDAY. WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S WOULD NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET
MUCH WARMER.

SHOWERS END SUNDAY EVENING AS ALL FORCING EXITS TO THE SE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A BIT BLO AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE UNDER MID LEVEL NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY MADE IT INTO KDVL AND SHOULD GET INTO KGFK/KTVF
SHORTLY. KFAR/KBJI WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER BUT THEY WILL ALSO GET
INTO THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF SHOWERS
INTO ANY OF THE AIRPORTS SO STUCK WITH THE VCSH MENTION. IF RADAR
SHOWS SHOWERS GETTING MORE WIDESPREAD OR IMMINENT WILL UPDATE TO
PUT A TEMPO GROUP IN. OTHER STORY IS WIND WHICH WILL ONLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS MAY ALSO DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT WILL
GENERALLY STICK AROUND INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KFGF 261959
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
259 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FA AS
UPPER LOW TRACKS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER THEN DROPS SE FROM
LAKE OF THE WOODS TO DLH BY MORNING. BEST CONCENTRATION LOOKS TO
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 BUT WILL MAINTAIN JUST CHC POPS.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL AREA FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WHERE MORE MODEST INSTABILITY AND
CAPE EXISTS. WILL PUT IN SOME LOW POPS THIS AREA REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA BY EVENING.
WITH CELLULAR NATURE OF CLOUD COVER FEEL MOST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONLY CATCH
IS THAT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LOW WHICH HAS DEEPER MOISTURE INVOLVED. AS THE LOW DROPS SE LATER
TONIGHT THIS FEATURE MAY LINGER SOME SHOWERS LONGER. WITH
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. TO BE SAFE
MAINTAINED SOME LOW END POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SOME CLOUDS AND A
BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR INTO THE 50S.

TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH MOIST
LAYER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE SPOTTY SHRA SUNDAY. WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S WOULD NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET
MUCH WARMER.

SHOWERS END SUNDAY EVENING AS ALL FORCING EXITS TO THE SE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A BIT BLO AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE UNDER MID LEVEL NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY MADE IT INTO KDVL AND SHOULD GET INTO KGFK/KTVF
SHORTLY. KFAR/KBJI WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER BUT THEY WILL ALSO GET
INTO THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF SHOWERS
INTO ANY OF THE AIRPORTS SO STUCK WITH THE VCSH MENTION. IF RADAR
SHOWS SHOWERS GETTING MORE WIDESPREAD OR IMMINENT WILL UPDATE TO
PUT A TEMPO GROUP IN. OTHER STORY IS WIND WHICH WILL ONLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS MAY ALSO DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT WILL
GENERALLY STICK AROUND INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KFGF 261959
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
259 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FA AS
UPPER LOW TRACKS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER THEN DROPS SE FROM
LAKE OF THE WOODS TO DLH BY MORNING. BEST CONCENTRATION LOOKS TO
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 BUT WILL MAINTAIN JUST CHC POPS.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL AREA FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WHERE MORE MODEST INSTABILITY AND
CAPE EXISTS. WILL PUT IN SOME LOW POPS THIS AREA REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA BY EVENING.
WITH CELLULAR NATURE OF CLOUD COVER FEEL MOST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONLY CATCH
IS THAT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LOW WHICH HAS DEEPER MOISTURE INVOLVED. AS THE LOW DROPS SE LATER
TONIGHT THIS FEATURE MAY LINGER SOME SHOWERS LONGER. WITH
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. TO BE SAFE
MAINTAINED SOME LOW END POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SOME CLOUDS AND A
BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR INTO THE 50S.

TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH MOIST
LAYER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE SPOTTY SHRA SUNDAY. WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S WOULD NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET
MUCH WARMER.

SHOWERS END SUNDAY EVENING AS ALL FORCING EXITS TO THE SE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A BIT BLO AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE UNDER MID LEVEL NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY MADE IT INTO KDVL AND SHOULD GET INTO KGFK/KTVF
SHORTLY. KFAR/KBJI WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER BUT THEY WILL ALSO GET
INTO THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF SHOWERS
INTO ANY OF THE AIRPORTS SO STUCK WITH THE VCSH MENTION. IF RADAR
SHOWS SHOWERS GETTING MORE WIDESPREAD OR IMMINENT WILL UPDATE TO
PUT A TEMPO GROUP IN. OTHER STORY IS WIND WHICH WILL ONLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS MAY ALSO DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT WILL
GENERALLY STICK AROUND INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KFGF 261959
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
259 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FA AS
UPPER LOW TRACKS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER THEN DROPS SE FROM
LAKE OF THE WOODS TO DLH BY MORNING. BEST CONCENTRATION LOOKS TO
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 BUT WILL MAINTAIN JUST CHC POPS.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL AREA FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WHERE MORE MODEST INSTABILITY AND
CAPE EXISTS. WILL PUT IN SOME LOW POPS THIS AREA REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA BY EVENING.
WITH CELLULAR NATURE OF CLOUD COVER FEEL MOST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONLY CATCH
IS THAT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LOW WHICH HAS DEEPER MOISTURE INVOLVED. AS THE LOW DROPS SE LATER
TONIGHT THIS FEATURE MAY LINGER SOME SHOWERS LONGER. WITH
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. TO BE SAFE
MAINTAINED SOME LOW END POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SOME CLOUDS AND A
BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR INTO THE 50S.

TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH MOIST
LAYER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE SPOTTY SHRA SUNDAY. WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S WOULD NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET
MUCH WARMER.

SHOWERS END SUNDAY EVENING AS ALL FORCING EXITS TO THE SE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A BIT BLO AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE UNDER MID LEVEL NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY MADE IT INTO KDVL AND SHOULD GET INTO KGFK/KTVF
SHORTLY. KFAR/KBJI WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER BUT THEY WILL ALSO GET
INTO THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF SHOWERS
INTO ANY OF THE AIRPORTS SO STUCK WITH THE VCSH MENTION. IF RADAR
SHOWS SHOWERS GETTING MORE WIDESPREAD OR IMMINENT WILL UPDATE TO
PUT A TEMPO GROUP IN. OTHER STORY IS WIND WHICH WILL ONLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS MAY ALSO DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT WILL
GENERALLY STICK AROUND INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KBIS 261949
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
249 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE WINNIPEG
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO WRN MINNESOTA
BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH COMPACT LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE
LOW...MAINLY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FOR TONIGHT...LOW WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST PUSHING INTO
NRN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL AND WIND WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE BY AROUND SUNSET...THOUGH SOME BREEZY LOCATIONS MAY
LINGER TOWARDS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY TOWARDS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...A PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND LOW SCOOTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BRINGING DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
AS COOLER AIRMASS REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL HUDSON BAY LOW AND A WEST COAST/ROCKIES RIDGE...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THUS THE STATE WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER.

THE VARIOUS MODELS DEPICT WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW OFF AND ON DURING THE PERIOD...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTIONING.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...WARMING TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM  CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. LCL
MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. LATER TONIGHT...MVFR WITH LCL IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 261742
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1242 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SPOTTY SHOWERS JUST WORKING INTO THE FAR NW FA ATTM. NIL
INSTABILITY/CAPE AT THIS POINT SO STUCK WITH SHOWERS. BASED ON
CURRENT TIMING ADJUSTED POPS DELAYING ARRIVAL IN EASTERN AREAS.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER BASED CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MAIN CHANGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE PATCHY FOG
MENTION. SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS SHOW ALL OF THE FOG HAS BEEN STAYING
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPS HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S AND SHOULD START RISING SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS TODAY AND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

A VERY WRAPPED UP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS A LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 70S IN
OUR NORTHWEST CORNER WHILE THE SOUTH WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY IN THE
80S. ALL THE MODELS BREAK OUT PRECIP ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
KEPT SCATTERED POPS GOING...MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST CLOSEST
TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. CAPE VALUES ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 1000 J/KG AT MOST...SO THINK THAT THUNDER WILL
BE PRETTY ISOLATED.

WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING...SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS BRINGING WIND SPEEDS IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA UP TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. NOT ALL DO HOWEVER...AND EVEN THE STRONGER
GUIDANCE IS BORDERLINE. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MIXING UP TO
850MB...BUT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE AROUND 35 KTS
AT MOST. THINK THAT IT WILL BE BREEZY...PARTICULARLY NEAR SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL ASSIST MIXING. WILL LEAVE
OUT ANY WIND HEADLINES FOR NOW.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF INTO EASTERN MN AND WI...WITH
THE SFC LOW OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
MAINTAINING OF PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AS IT SPINS
CURRENTLY OVER CANADA...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SET IN FOR
SUNDAY BUT WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS IN
OUR EAST SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE 70 MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
BELOW AVERAGE...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH READINGS A BIT CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL OCCUR DURING THIS
TIME WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH RATHER LIGHT
WINDS. THERMAL FIELDS VERY GRADUALLY WARM...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT
SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY MADE IT INTO KDVL AND SHOULD GET INTO KGFK/KTVF
SHORTLY. KFAR/KBJI WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER BUT THEY WILL ALSO GET
INTO THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF SHOWERS
INTO ANY OF THE AIRPORTS SO STUCK WITH THE VCSH MENTION. IF RADAR
SHOWS SHOWERS GETTING MORE WIDESPREAD OR IMMINENT WILL UPDATE TO
PUT A TEMPO GROUP IN. OTHER STORY IS WIND WHICH WILL ONLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS MAY ALSO DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT WILL
GENERALLY STICK AROUND INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261742
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1242 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SPOTTY SHOWERS JUST WORKING INTO THE FAR NW FA ATTM. NIL
INSTABILITY/CAPE AT THIS POINT SO STUCK WITH SHOWERS. BASED ON
CURRENT TIMING ADJUSTED POPS DELAYING ARRIVAL IN EASTERN AREAS.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER BASED CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MAIN CHANGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE PATCHY FOG
MENTION. SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS SHOW ALL OF THE FOG HAS BEEN STAYING
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPS HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S AND SHOULD START RISING SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS TODAY AND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

A VERY WRAPPED UP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS A LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 70S IN
OUR NORTHWEST CORNER WHILE THE SOUTH WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY IN THE
80S. ALL THE MODELS BREAK OUT PRECIP ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
KEPT SCATTERED POPS GOING...MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST CLOSEST
TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. CAPE VALUES ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 1000 J/KG AT MOST...SO THINK THAT THUNDER WILL
BE PRETTY ISOLATED.

WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING...SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS BRINGING WIND SPEEDS IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA UP TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. NOT ALL DO HOWEVER...AND EVEN THE STRONGER
GUIDANCE IS BORDERLINE. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MIXING UP TO
850MB...BUT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE AROUND 35 KTS
AT MOST. THINK THAT IT WILL BE BREEZY...PARTICULARLY NEAR SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL ASSIST MIXING. WILL LEAVE
OUT ANY WIND HEADLINES FOR NOW.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF INTO EASTERN MN AND WI...WITH
THE SFC LOW OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
MAINTAINING OF PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AS IT SPINS
CURRENTLY OVER CANADA...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SET IN FOR
SUNDAY BUT WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS IN
OUR EAST SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE 70 MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
BELOW AVERAGE...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH READINGS A BIT CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL OCCUR DURING THIS
TIME WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH RATHER LIGHT
WINDS. THERMAL FIELDS VERY GRADUALLY WARM...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT
SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY MADE IT INTO KDVL AND SHOULD GET INTO KGFK/KTVF
SHORTLY. KFAR/KBJI WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER BUT THEY WILL ALSO GET
INTO THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF SHOWERS
INTO ANY OF THE AIRPORTS SO STUCK WITH THE VCSH MENTION. IF RADAR
SHOWS SHOWERS GETTING MORE WIDESPREAD OR IMMINENT WILL UPDATE TO
PUT A TEMPO GROUP IN. OTHER STORY IS WIND WHICH WILL ONLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS MAY ALSO DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT WILL
GENERALLY STICK AROUND INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261742
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1242 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SPOTTY SHOWERS JUST WORKING INTO THE FAR NW FA ATTM. NIL
INSTABILITY/CAPE AT THIS POINT SO STUCK WITH SHOWERS. BASED ON
CURRENT TIMING ADJUSTED POPS DELAYING ARRIVAL IN EASTERN AREAS.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER BASED CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MAIN CHANGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE PATCHY FOG
MENTION. SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS SHOW ALL OF THE FOG HAS BEEN STAYING
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPS HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S AND SHOULD START RISING SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS TODAY AND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

A VERY WRAPPED UP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS A LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 70S IN
OUR NORTHWEST CORNER WHILE THE SOUTH WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY IN THE
80S. ALL THE MODELS BREAK OUT PRECIP ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
KEPT SCATTERED POPS GOING...MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST CLOSEST
TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. CAPE VALUES ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 1000 J/KG AT MOST...SO THINK THAT THUNDER WILL
BE PRETTY ISOLATED.

WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING...SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS BRINGING WIND SPEEDS IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA UP TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. NOT ALL DO HOWEVER...AND EVEN THE STRONGER
GUIDANCE IS BORDERLINE. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MIXING UP TO
850MB...BUT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE AROUND 35 KTS
AT MOST. THINK THAT IT WILL BE BREEZY...PARTICULARLY NEAR SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL ASSIST MIXING. WILL LEAVE
OUT ANY WIND HEADLINES FOR NOW.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF INTO EASTERN MN AND WI...WITH
THE SFC LOW OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
MAINTAINING OF PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AS IT SPINS
CURRENTLY OVER CANADA...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SET IN FOR
SUNDAY BUT WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS IN
OUR EAST SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE 70 MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
BELOW AVERAGE...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH READINGS A BIT CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL OCCUR DURING THIS
TIME WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH RATHER LIGHT
WINDS. THERMAL FIELDS VERY GRADUALLY WARM...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT
SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY MADE IT INTO KDVL AND SHOULD GET INTO KGFK/KTVF
SHORTLY. KFAR/KBJI WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER BUT THEY WILL ALSO GET
INTO THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF SHOWERS
INTO ANY OF THE AIRPORTS SO STUCK WITH THE VCSH MENTION. IF RADAR
SHOWS SHOWERS GETTING MORE WIDESPREAD OR IMMINENT WILL UPDATE TO
PUT A TEMPO GROUP IN. OTHER STORY IS WIND WHICH WILL ONLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS MAY ALSO DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT WILL
GENERALLY STICK AROUND INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261742
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1242 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SPOTTY SHOWERS JUST WORKING INTO THE FAR NW FA ATTM. NIL
INSTABILITY/CAPE AT THIS POINT SO STUCK WITH SHOWERS. BASED ON
CURRENT TIMING ADJUSTED POPS DELAYING ARRIVAL IN EASTERN AREAS.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER BASED CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MAIN CHANGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE PATCHY FOG
MENTION. SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS SHOW ALL OF THE FOG HAS BEEN STAYING
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPS HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S AND SHOULD START RISING SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS TODAY AND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

A VERY WRAPPED UP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS A LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 70S IN
OUR NORTHWEST CORNER WHILE THE SOUTH WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY IN THE
80S. ALL THE MODELS BREAK OUT PRECIP ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
KEPT SCATTERED POPS GOING...MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST CLOSEST
TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. CAPE VALUES ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 1000 J/KG AT MOST...SO THINK THAT THUNDER WILL
BE PRETTY ISOLATED.

WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING...SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS BRINGING WIND SPEEDS IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA UP TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. NOT ALL DO HOWEVER...AND EVEN THE STRONGER
GUIDANCE IS BORDERLINE. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MIXING UP TO
850MB...BUT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE AROUND 35 KTS
AT MOST. THINK THAT IT WILL BE BREEZY...PARTICULARLY NEAR SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL ASSIST MIXING. WILL LEAVE
OUT ANY WIND HEADLINES FOR NOW.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF INTO EASTERN MN AND WI...WITH
THE SFC LOW OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
MAINTAINING OF PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AS IT SPINS
CURRENTLY OVER CANADA...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SET IN FOR
SUNDAY BUT WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS IN
OUR EAST SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE 70 MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
BELOW AVERAGE...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH READINGS A BIT CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL OCCUR DURING THIS
TIME WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH RATHER LIGHT
WINDS. THERMAL FIELDS VERY GRADUALLY WARM...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT
SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY MADE IT INTO KDVL AND SHOULD GET INTO KGFK/KTVF
SHORTLY. KFAR/KBJI WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER BUT THEY WILL ALSO GET
INTO THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF SHOWERS
INTO ANY OF THE AIRPORTS SO STUCK WITH THE VCSH MENTION. IF RADAR
SHOWS SHOWERS GETTING MORE WIDESPREAD OR IMMINENT WILL UPDATE TO
PUT A TEMPO GROUP IN. OTHER STORY IS WIND WHICH WILL ONLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS MAY ALSO DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT WILL
GENERALLY STICK AROUND INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KBIS 261736
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS A LOW SHIFTS
THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA. HAVE EXPANDED DENSER CLOUD COVER
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH TO MATCH GOING TREND. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED LOW
PRECIP CHANCES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TO MATCH THE GOING
TREND OF LIGHT DEVELOPING ACTIVITY ALONG WITH HIGH-RES MODEL
OUTPUT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

GOING FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
ADJUST CLOUD COVER UP A BIT OVER NORTHERN ZONES AS IT WORKS IN
BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED LOW. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

HRRR MODEL SO FAR CORRECTLY FORECAST SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE AND
BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. BELIEVE THIS FEATURE
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH IN SOUTH DAKOTA. TO
THE NORTH...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW
CIRCULATING OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A 1003MB SURFACE LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER WYNYARD SASKATCHEWAN...DIRECTLY BENEATH THE UPPER LOW.
AS A RESULT...THE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL/WEAKEN WITH TIME. ATTACHED
TO THE LOW IS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO MINOT AND GARRISON...AND CONTINUING SOUTH TO
GLEN ULLIN AND HETTINGER. COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY COMBINED WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE...INCLUDING TODAYS DATA...THE MET/NAM WIND GUIDANCE IS
WEAKER THAN THE MAV/GFS. THE LATEST RAP13 AND ECMWF FAVORS THE
LOWER END OF STRONGEST WINDS. THIS ULTIMATELY SUGGESTS A WEAK
CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WOULD LIKE TO MORE AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE FORECAST DATA WITH HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS. THUS HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AS IT REMAINS
MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. THE DAY SHIFT CAN HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AS WINDS
INCREASE BY MID/LATE MORNING TO COMPARE ACTUAL VERSUS FORECAST.

OTHERWISE THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF
LOW/MID LEVEL BKN/OVC CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THESE ARE NOW BEGINNING TO
CROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND
OF CLOUDS ARCING INTO WILLISTON AND MINOT BETWEEN 16Z-17Z. THERE
WILL BE AN AREA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TODAY. THE NAM WAS MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MAINTAINING THE
THREAT OVER THE NORTH...HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NAM AND CONTINUED/REFINED
WITH WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. HIGHS TODAY IN THE NORTH WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY/WINDY/WET CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S.
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDY WEATHER
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

ALSO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG AND NORTH OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FIELD/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME HINT PER RAP13 THAT SHOWERS
WILL ENTER FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST AT THE LAST MINUTE IF TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS THE AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MERGE INTO A LARGE HUDSON BAY
TROUGH SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH OVER
THE EAST. THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
SUNDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE H500 RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN US ONLY A FEW WEAK IMPULSES MAY BE ABLE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS POSSIBILITY LEFT WIDELY SCATTERED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BASICALLY DRY AND WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM  CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. LCL
MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. LATER TONIGHT...MVFR WITH LCL IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 261736
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS A LOW SHIFTS
THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA. HAVE EXPANDED DENSER CLOUD COVER
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH TO MATCH GOING TREND. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED LOW
PRECIP CHANCES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TO MATCH THE GOING
TREND OF LIGHT DEVELOPING ACTIVITY ALONG WITH HIGH-RES MODEL
OUTPUT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

GOING FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
ADJUST CLOUD COVER UP A BIT OVER NORTHERN ZONES AS IT WORKS IN
BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED LOW. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

HRRR MODEL SO FAR CORRECTLY FORECAST SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE AND
BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. BELIEVE THIS FEATURE
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH IN SOUTH DAKOTA. TO
THE NORTH...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW
CIRCULATING OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A 1003MB SURFACE LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER WYNYARD SASKATCHEWAN...DIRECTLY BENEATH THE UPPER LOW.
AS A RESULT...THE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL/WEAKEN WITH TIME. ATTACHED
TO THE LOW IS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO MINOT AND GARRISON...AND CONTINUING SOUTH TO
GLEN ULLIN AND HETTINGER. COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY COMBINED WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE...INCLUDING TODAYS DATA...THE MET/NAM WIND GUIDANCE IS
WEAKER THAN THE MAV/GFS. THE LATEST RAP13 AND ECMWF FAVORS THE
LOWER END OF STRONGEST WINDS. THIS ULTIMATELY SUGGESTS A WEAK
CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WOULD LIKE TO MORE AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE FORECAST DATA WITH HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS. THUS HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AS IT REMAINS
MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. THE DAY SHIFT CAN HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AS WINDS
INCREASE BY MID/LATE MORNING TO COMPARE ACTUAL VERSUS FORECAST.

OTHERWISE THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF
LOW/MID LEVEL BKN/OVC CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THESE ARE NOW BEGINNING TO
CROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND
OF CLOUDS ARCING INTO WILLISTON AND MINOT BETWEEN 16Z-17Z. THERE
WILL BE AN AREA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TODAY. THE NAM WAS MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MAINTAINING THE
THREAT OVER THE NORTH...HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NAM AND CONTINUED/REFINED
WITH WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. HIGHS TODAY IN THE NORTH WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY/WINDY/WET CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S.
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDY WEATHER
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

ALSO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG AND NORTH OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FIELD/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME HINT PER RAP13 THAT SHOWERS
WILL ENTER FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST AT THE LAST MINUTE IF TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS THE AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MERGE INTO A LARGE HUDSON BAY
TROUGH SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH OVER
THE EAST. THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
SUNDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE H500 RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN US ONLY A FEW WEAK IMPULSES MAY BE ABLE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS POSSIBILITY LEFT WIDELY SCATTERED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BASICALLY DRY AND WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM  CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. LCL
MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. LATER TONIGHT...MVFR WITH LCL IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 261433
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
933 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

GOING FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
ADJUST CLOUD COVER UP A BIT OVER NORTHERN ZONES AS IT WORKS IN
BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED LOW. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

HRRR MODEL SO FAR CORRECTLY FORECAST SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE AND
BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. BELIEVE THIS FEATURE
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH IN SOUTH DAKOTA. TO
THE NORTH...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW
CIRCULATING OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A 1003MB SURFACE LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER WYNYARD SASKATCHEWAN...DIRECTLY BENEATH THE UPPER LOW.
AS A RESULT...THE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL/WEAKEN WITH TIME. ATTACHED
TO THE LOW IS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO MINOT AND GARRISON...AND CONTINUING SOUTH TO
GLEN ULLIN AND HETTINGER. COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY COMBINED WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE...INCLUDING TODAYS DATA...THE MET/NAM WIND GUIDANCE IS
WEAKER THAN THE MAV/GFS. THE LATEST RAP13 AND ECMWF FAVORS THE
LOWER END OF STRONGEST WINDS. THIS ULTIMATELY SUGGESTS A WEAK
CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WOULD LIKE TO MORE AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE FORECAST DATA WITH HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS. THUS HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AS IT REMAINS
MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. THE DAY SHIFT CAN HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AS WINDS
INCREASE BY MID/LATE MORNING TO COMPARE ACTUAL VERSUS FORECAST.

OTHERWISE THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF
LOW/MID LEVEL BKN/OVC CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THESE ARE NOW BEGINNING TO
CROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND
OF CLOUDS ARCING INTO WILLISTON AND MINOT BETWEEN 16Z-17Z. THERE
WILL BE AN AREA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TODAY. THE NAM WAS MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MAINTAINING THE
THREAT OVER THE NORTH...HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NAM AND CONTINUED/REFINED
WITH WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. HIGHS TODAY IN THE NORTH WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY/WINDY/WET CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S.
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDY WEATHER
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

ALSO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG AND NORTH OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FIELD/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME HINT PER RAP13 THAT SHOWERS
WILL ENTER FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST AT THE LAST MINUTE IF TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS THE AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MERGE INTO A LARGE HUDSON BAY
TROUGH SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH OVER
THE EAST. THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
SUNDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE H500 RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN US ONLY A FEW WEAK IMPULSES MAY BE ABLE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS POSSIBILITY LEFT WIDELY SCATTERED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BASICALLY DRY AND WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 25KT AND 35KT WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 15Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 02Z
SUNDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL IMPACT KISN/KMOT FROM 16Z SATURDAY THROUGH
02Z SUNDAY. KMOT WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF -SHRA AND
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WHICH WILL BE COVERED IN A TEMPO GROUP
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z SATURDAY. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN
VFR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 261433
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
933 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

GOING FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
ADJUST CLOUD COVER UP A BIT OVER NORTHERN ZONES AS IT WORKS IN
BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED LOW. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

HRRR MODEL SO FAR CORRECTLY FORECAST SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE AND
BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. BELIEVE THIS FEATURE
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH IN SOUTH DAKOTA. TO
THE NORTH...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW
CIRCULATING OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A 1003MB SURFACE LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER WYNYARD SASKATCHEWAN...DIRECTLY BENEATH THE UPPER LOW.
AS A RESULT...THE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL/WEAKEN WITH TIME. ATTACHED
TO THE LOW IS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO MINOT AND GARRISON...AND CONTINUING SOUTH TO
GLEN ULLIN AND HETTINGER. COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY COMBINED WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE...INCLUDING TODAYS DATA...THE MET/NAM WIND GUIDANCE IS
WEAKER THAN THE MAV/GFS. THE LATEST RAP13 AND ECMWF FAVORS THE
LOWER END OF STRONGEST WINDS. THIS ULTIMATELY SUGGESTS A WEAK
CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WOULD LIKE TO MORE AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE FORECAST DATA WITH HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS. THUS HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AS IT REMAINS
MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. THE DAY SHIFT CAN HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AS WINDS
INCREASE BY MID/LATE MORNING TO COMPARE ACTUAL VERSUS FORECAST.

OTHERWISE THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF
LOW/MID LEVEL BKN/OVC CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THESE ARE NOW BEGINNING TO
CROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND
OF CLOUDS ARCING INTO WILLISTON AND MINOT BETWEEN 16Z-17Z. THERE
WILL BE AN AREA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TODAY. THE NAM WAS MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MAINTAINING THE
THREAT OVER THE NORTH...HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NAM AND CONTINUED/REFINED
WITH WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. HIGHS TODAY IN THE NORTH WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY/WINDY/WET CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S.
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDY WEATHER
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

ALSO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG AND NORTH OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FIELD/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME HINT PER RAP13 THAT SHOWERS
WILL ENTER FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST AT THE LAST MINUTE IF TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS THE AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MERGE INTO A LARGE HUDSON BAY
TROUGH SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH OVER
THE EAST. THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
SUNDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE H500 RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN US ONLY A FEW WEAK IMPULSES MAY BE ABLE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS POSSIBILITY LEFT WIDELY SCATTERED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BASICALLY DRY AND WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 25KT AND 35KT WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 15Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 02Z
SUNDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL IMPACT KISN/KMOT FROM 16Z SATURDAY THROUGH
02Z SUNDAY. KMOT WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF -SHRA AND
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WHICH WILL BE COVERED IN A TEMPO GROUP
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z SATURDAY. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN
VFR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261432
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
932 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MAIN CHANGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE PATCHY FOG
MENTION. SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS SHOW ALL OF THE FOG HAS BEEN STAYING
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPS HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S AND SHOULD START RISING SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS TODAY AND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

A VERY WRAPPED UP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS A LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 70S IN
OUR NORTHWEST CORNER WHILE THE SOUTH WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY IN THE
80S. ALL THE MODELS BREAK OUT PRECIP ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
KEPT SCATTERED POPS GOING...MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST CLOSEST
TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. CAPE VALUES ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 1000 J/KG AT MOST...SO THINK THAT THUNDER WILL
BE PRETTY ISOLATED.

WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING...SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS BRINGING WIND SPEEDS IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA UP TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. NOT ALL DO HOWEVER...AND EVEN THE STRONGER
GUIDANCE IS BORDERLINE. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MIXING UP TO
850MB...BUT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE AROUND 35 KTS
AT MOST. THINK THAT IT WILL BE BREEZY...PARTICULARLY NEAR SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL ASSIST MIXING. WILL LEAVE
OUT ANY WIND HEADLINES FOR NOW.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF INTO EASTERN MN AND WI...WITH
THE SFC LOW OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
MAINTAINING OF PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AS IT SPINS
CURRENTLY OVER CANADA...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SET IN FOR
SUNDAY BUT WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS IN
OUR EAST SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE 70 MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
BELOW AVERAGE...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH READINGS A BIT CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL OCCUR DURING THIS
TIME WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH RATHER LIGHT
WINDS. THERMAL FIELDS VERY GRADUALLY WARM...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT
SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST THREE QUARTERS OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING BREEZY WEST WINDS
BEHIND IT. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS OVER 25 KTS. KDVL COULD BE EVEN HIGHER WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS AND SUSTAINED OVER 20 KTS. THERE COULD BE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT...BUT
THINK THUNDER IS A LOW ENOUGH CHANCE TO JUST CONTINUE WITH VCSH AT
THIS TIME. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KBIS 261137
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

HRRR MODEL SO FAR CORRECTLY FORECAST SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE AND
BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. BELIEVE THIS FEATURE
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH IN SOUTH DAKOTA. TO
THE NORTH...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW
CIRCULATING OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A 1003MB SURFACE LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER WYNYARD SASKATCHEWAN...DIRECTLY BENEATH THE UPPER LOW.
AS A RESULT...THE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL/WEAKEN WITH TIME. ATTACHED
TO THE LOW IS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO MINOT AND GARRISON...AND CONTINUING SOUTH TO
GLEN ULLIN AND HETTINGER. COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY COMBINED WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE...INCLUDING TODAYS DATA...THE MET/NAM WIND GUIDANCE IS
WEAKER THAN THE MAV/GFS. THE LATEST RAP13 AND ECMWF FAVORS THE
LOWER END OF STRONGEST WINDS. THIS ULTIMATELY SUGGESTS A WEAK
CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WOULD LIKE TO MORE AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE FORECAST DATA WITH HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS. THUS HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AS IT REMAINS
MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. THE DAY SHIFT CAN HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AS WINDS
INCREASE BY MID/LATE MORNING TO COMPARE ACTUAL VERSUS FORECAST.

OTHERWISE THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF
LOW/MID LEVEL BKN/OVC CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THESE ARE NOW BEGINNING TO
CROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND
OF CLOUDS ARCING INTO WILLISTON AND MINOT BETWEEN 16Z-17Z. THERE
WILL BE AN AREA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TODAY. THE NAM WAS MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MAINTAINING THE
THREAT OVER THE NORTH...HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NAM AND CONTINUED/REFINED
WITH WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. HIGHS TODAY IN THE NORTH WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY/WINDY/WET CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S.
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDY WEATHER
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

ALSO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG AND NORTH OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FIELD/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME HINT PER RAP13 THAT SHOWERS
WILL ENTER FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST AT THE LAST MINUTE IF TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS THE AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MERGE INTO A LARGE HUDSON BAY
TROUGH SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH OVER
THE EAST. THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
SUNDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE H500 RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN US ONLY A FEW WEAK IMPULSES MAY BE ABLE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS POSSIBILITY LEFT WIDELY SCATTERED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BASICALLY DRY AND WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 25KT AND 35KT WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 15Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 02Z
SUNDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL IMPACT KISN/KMOT FROM 16Z SATURDAY THROUGH
02Z SUNDAY. KMOT WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF -SHRA AND
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WHICH WILL BE COVERED IN A TEMPO GROUP
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z SATURDAY. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN
VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 261137
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

HRRR MODEL SO FAR CORRECTLY FORECAST SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE AND
BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. BELIEVE THIS FEATURE
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH IN SOUTH DAKOTA. TO
THE NORTH...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW
CIRCULATING OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A 1003MB SURFACE LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER WYNYARD SASKATCHEWAN...DIRECTLY BENEATH THE UPPER LOW.
AS A RESULT...THE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL/WEAKEN WITH TIME. ATTACHED
TO THE LOW IS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO MINOT AND GARRISON...AND CONTINUING SOUTH TO
GLEN ULLIN AND HETTINGER. COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY COMBINED WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE...INCLUDING TODAYS DATA...THE MET/NAM WIND GUIDANCE IS
WEAKER THAN THE MAV/GFS. THE LATEST RAP13 AND ECMWF FAVORS THE
LOWER END OF STRONGEST WINDS. THIS ULTIMATELY SUGGESTS A WEAK
CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WOULD LIKE TO MORE AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE FORECAST DATA WITH HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS. THUS HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AS IT REMAINS
MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. THE DAY SHIFT CAN HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AS WINDS
INCREASE BY MID/LATE MORNING TO COMPARE ACTUAL VERSUS FORECAST.

OTHERWISE THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF
LOW/MID LEVEL BKN/OVC CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THESE ARE NOW BEGINNING TO
CROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND
OF CLOUDS ARCING INTO WILLISTON AND MINOT BETWEEN 16Z-17Z. THERE
WILL BE AN AREA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TODAY. THE NAM WAS MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MAINTAINING THE
THREAT OVER THE NORTH...HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NAM AND CONTINUED/REFINED
WITH WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. HIGHS TODAY IN THE NORTH WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY/WINDY/WET CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S.
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDY WEATHER
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

ALSO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG AND NORTH OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FIELD/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME HINT PER RAP13 THAT SHOWERS
WILL ENTER FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST AT THE LAST MINUTE IF TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS THE AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MERGE INTO A LARGE HUDSON BAY
TROUGH SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH OVER
THE EAST. THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
SUNDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE H500 RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN US ONLY A FEW WEAK IMPULSES MAY BE ABLE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS POSSIBILITY LEFT WIDELY SCATTERED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BASICALLY DRY AND WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 25KT AND 35KT WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 15Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 02Z
SUNDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL IMPACT KISN/KMOT FROM 16Z SATURDAY THROUGH
02Z SUNDAY. KMOT WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF -SHRA AND
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WHICH WILL BE COVERED IN A TEMPO GROUP
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z SATURDAY. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN
VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 261137
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

HRRR MODEL SO FAR CORRECTLY FORECAST SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE AND
BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. BELIEVE THIS FEATURE
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH IN SOUTH DAKOTA. TO
THE NORTH...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW
CIRCULATING OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A 1003MB SURFACE LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER WYNYARD SASKATCHEWAN...DIRECTLY BENEATH THE UPPER LOW.
AS A RESULT...THE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL/WEAKEN WITH TIME. ATTACHED
TO THE LOW IS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO MINOT AND GARRISON...AND CONTINUING SOUTH TO
GLEN ULLIN AND HETTINGER. COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY COMBINED WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE...INCLUDING TODAYS DATA...THE MET/NAM WIND GUIDANCE IS
WEAKER THAN THE MAV/GFS. THE LATEST RAP13 AND ECMWF FAVORS THE
LOWER END OF STRONGEST WINDS. THIS ULTIMATELY SUGGESTS A WEAK
CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WOULD LIKE TO MORE AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE FORECAST DATA WITH HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS. THUS HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AS IT REMAINS
MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. THE DAY SHIFT CAN HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AS WINDS
INCREASE BY MID/LATE MORNING TO COMPARE ACTUAL VERSUS FORECAST.

OTHERWISE THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF
LOW/MID LEVEL BKN/OVC CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THESE ARE NOW BEGINNING TO
CROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND
OF CLOUDS ARCING INTO WILLISTON AND MINOT BETWEEN 16Z-17Z. THERE
WILL BE AN AREA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TODAY. THE NAM WAS MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MAINTAINING THE
THREAT OVER THE NORTH...HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NAM AND CONTINUED/REFINED
WITH WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. HIGHS TODAY IN THE NORTH WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY/WINDY/WET CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S.
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDY WEATHER
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

ALSO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG AND NORTH OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FIELD/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME HINT PER RAP13 THAT SHOWERS
WILL ENTER FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST AT THE LAST MINUTE IF TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS THE AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MERGE INTO A LARGE HUDSON BAY
TROUGH SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH OVER
THE EAST. THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
SUNDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE H500 RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN US ONLY A FEW WEAK IMPULSES MAY BE ABLE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS POSSIBILITY LEFT WIDELY SCATTERED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BASICALLY DRY AND WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 25KT AND 35KT WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 15Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 02Z
SUNDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL IMPACT KISN/KMOT FROM 16Z SATURDAY THROUGH
02Z SUNDAY. KMOT WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF -SHRA AND
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WHICH WILL BE COVERED IN A TEMPO GROUP
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z SATURDAY. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN
VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 261137
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

HRRR MODEL SO FAR CORRECTLY FORECAST SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE AND
BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. BELIEVE THIS FEATURE
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH IN SOUTH DAKOTA. TO
THE NORTH...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW
CIRCULATING OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A 1003MB SURFACE LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER WYNYARD SASKATCHEWAN...DIRECTLY BENEATH THE UPPER LOW.
AS A RESULT...THE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL/WEAKEN WITH TIME. ATTACHED
TO THE LOW IS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO MINOT AND GARRISON...AND CONTINUING SOUTH TO
GLEN ULLIN AND HETTINGER. COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY COMBINED WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE...INCLUDING TODAYS DATA...THE MET/NAM WIND GUIDANCE IS
WEAKER THAN THE MAV/GFS. THE LATEST RAP13 AND ECMWF FAVORS THE
LOWER END OF STRONGEST WINDS. THIS ULTIMATELY SUGGESTS A WEAK
CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WOULD LIKE TO MORE AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE FORECAST DATA WITH HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS. THUS HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AS IT REMAINS
MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. THE DAY SHIFT CAN HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AS WINDS
INCREASE BY MID/LATE MORNING TO COMPARE ACTUAL VERSUS FORECAST.

OTHERWISE THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF
LOW/MID LEVEL BKN/OVC CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THESE ARE NOW BEGINNING TO
CROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND
OF CLOUDS ARCING INTO WILLISTON AND MINOT BETWEEN 16Z-17Z. THERE
WILL BE AN AREA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TODAY. THE NAM WAS MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MAINTAINING THE
THREAT OVER THE NORTH...HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NAM AND CONTINUED/REFINED
WITH WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. HIGHS TODAY IN THE NORTH WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY/WINDY/WET CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S.
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDY WEATHER
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

ALSO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG AND NORTH OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FIELD/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME HINT PER RAP13 THAT SHOWERS
WILL ENTER FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST AT THE LAST MINUTE IF TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS THE AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MERGE INTO A LARGE HUDSON BAY
TROUGH SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH OVER
THE EAST. THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
SUNDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE H500 RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN US ONLY A FEW WEAK IMPULSES MAY BE ABLE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS POSSIBILITY LEFT WIDELY SCATTERED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BASICALLY DRY AND WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 25KT AND 35KT WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 15Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 02Z
SUNDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL IMPACT KISN/KMOT FROM 16Z SATURDAY THROUGH
02Z SUNDAY. KMOT WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF -SHRA AND
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WHICH WILL BE COVERED IN A TEMPO GROUP
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z SATURDAY. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN
VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KFGF 261135
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
635 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MAIN CHANGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE PATCHY FOG
MENTION. SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS SHOW ALL OF THE FOG HAS BEEN STAYING
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPS HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S AND SHOULD START RISING SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS TODAY AND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

A VERY WRAPPED UP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS A LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 70S IN
OUR NORTHWEST CORNER WHILE THE SOUTH WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY IN THE
80S. ALL THE MODELS BREAK OUT PRECIP ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
KEPT SCATTERED POPS GOING...MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST CLOSEST
TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. CAPE VALUES ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 1000 J/KG AT MOST...SO THINK THAT THUNDER WILL
BE PRETTY ISOLATED.

WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING...SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS BRINGING WIND SPEEDS IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA UP TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. NOT ALL DO HOWEVER...AND EVEN THE STRONGER
GUIDANCE IS BORDERLINE. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MIXING UP TO
850MB...BUT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE AROUND 35 KTS
AT MOST. THINK THAT IT WILL BE BREEZY...PARTICULARLY NEAR SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL ASSIST MIXING. WILL LEAVE
OUT ANY WIND HEADLINES FOR NOW.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF INTO EASTERN MN AND WI...WITH
THE SFC LOW OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
MAINTAINING OF PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AS IT SPINS
CURRENTLY OVER CANADA...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SET IN FOR
SUNDAY BUT WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS IN
OUR EAST SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE 70 MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
BELOW AVERAGE...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH READINGS A BIT CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL OCCUR DURING THIS
TIME WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH RATHER LIGHT
WINDS. THERMAL FIELDS VERY GRADUALLY WARM...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT
SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST THREE QUARTERS OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING BREEZY WEST WINDS
BEHIND IT. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS OVER 25 KTS. KDVL COULD BE EVEN HIGHER WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS AND SUSTAINED OVER 20 KTS. THERE COULD BE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT...BUT
THINK THUNDER IS A LOW ENOUGH CHANCE TO JUST CONTINUE WITH VCSH AT
THIS TIME. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 261135
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
635 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MAIN CHANGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE PATCHY FOG
MENTION. SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS SHOW ALL OF THE FOG HAS BEEN STAYING
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPS HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S AND SHOULD START RISING SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS TODAY AND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

A VERY WRAPPED UP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS A LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 70S IN
OUR NORTHWEST CORNER WHILE THE SOUTH WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY IN THE
80S. ALL THE MODELS BREAK OUT PRECIP ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
KEPT SCATTERED POPS GOING...MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST CLOSEST
TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. CAPE VALUES ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 1000 J/KG AT MOST...SO THINK THAT THUNDER WILL
BE PRETTY ISOLATED.

WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING...SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS BRINGING WIND SPEEDS IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA UP TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. NOT ALL DO HOWEVER...AND EVEN THE STRONGER
GUIDANCE IS BORDERLINE. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MIXING UP TO
850MB...BUT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE AROUND 35 KTS
AT MOST. THINK THAT IT WILL BE BREEZY...PARTICULARLY NEAR SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL ASSIST MIXING. WILL LEAVE
OUT ANY WIND HEADLINES FOR NOW.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF INTO EASTERN MN AND WI...WITH
THE SFC LOW OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
MAINTAINING OF PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AS IT SPINS
CURRENTLY OVER CANADA...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SET IN FOR
SUNDAY BUT WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS IN
OUR EAST SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE 70 MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
BELOW AVERAGE...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH READINGS A BIT CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL OCCUR DURING THIS
TIME WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH RATHER LIGHT
WINDS. THERMAL FIELDS VERY GRADUALLY WARM...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT
SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST THREE QUARTERS OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING BREEZY WEST WINDS
BEHIND IT. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS OVER 25 KTS. KDVL COULD BE EVEN HIGHER WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS AND SUSTAINED OVER 20 KTS. THERE COULD BE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT...BUT
THINK THUNDER IS A LOW ENOUGH CHANCE TO JUST CONTINUE WITH VCSH AT
THIS TIME. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 261135
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
635 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MAIN CHANGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE PATCHY FOG
MENTION. SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS SHOW ALL OF THE FOG HAS BEEN STAYING
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPS HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S AND SHOULD START RISING SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS TODAY AND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

A VERY WRAPPED UP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS A LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 70S IN
OUR NORTHWEST CORNER WHILE THE SOUTH WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY IN THE
80S. ALL THE MODELS BREAK OUT PRECIP ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
KEPT SCATTERED POPS GOING...MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST CLOSEST
TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. CAPE VALUES ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 1000 J/KG AT MOST...SO THINK THAT THUNDER WILL
BE PRETTY ISOLATED.

WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING...SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS BRINGING WIND SPEEDS IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA UP TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. NOT ALL DO HOWEVER...AND EVEN THE STRONGER
GUIDANCE IS BORDERLINE. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MIXING UP TO
850MB...BUT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE AROUND 35 KTS
AT MOST. THINK THAT IT WILL BE BREEZY...PARTICULARLY NEAR SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL ASSIST MIXING. WILL LEAVE
OUT ANY WIND HEADLINES FOR NOW.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF INTO EASTERN MN AND WI...WITH
THE SFC LOW OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
MAINTAINING OF PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AS IT SPINS
CURRENTLY OVER CANADA...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SET IN FOR
SUNDAY BUT WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS IN
OUR EAST SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE 70 MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
BELOW AVERAGE...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH READINGS A BIT CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL OCCUR DURING THIS
TIME WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH RATHER LIGHT
WINDS. THERMAL FIELDS VERY GRADUALLY WARM...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT
SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST THREE QUARTERS OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING BREEZY WEST WINDS
BEHIND IT. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS OVER 25 KTS. KDVL COULD BE EVEN HIGHER WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS AND SUSTAINED OVER 20 KTS. THERE COULD BE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT...BUT
THINK THUNDER IS A LOW ENOUGH CHANCE TO JUST CONTINUE WITH VCSH AT
THIS TIME. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 261135
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
635 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MAIN CHANGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE PATCHY FOG
MENTION. SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS SHOW ALL OF THE FOG HAS BEEN STAYING
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPS HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S AND SHOULD START RISING SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS TODAY AND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

A VERY WRAPPED UP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS A LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 70S IN
OUR NORTHWEST CORNER WHILE THE SOUTH WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY IN THE
80S. ALL THE MODELS BREAK OUT PRECIP ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
KEPT SCATTERED POPS GOING...MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST CLOSEST
TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. CAPE VALUES ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 1000 J/KG AT MOST...SO THINK THAT THUNDER WILL
BE PRETTY ISOLATED.

WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING...SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS BRINGING WIND SPEEDS IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA UP TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. NOT ALL DO HOWEVER...AND EVEN THE STRONGER
GUIDANCE IS BORDERLINE. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MIXING UP TO
850MB...BUT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE AROUND 35 KTS
AT MOST. THINK THAT IT WILL BE BREEZY...PARTICULARLY NEAR SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL ASSIST MIXING. WILL LEAVE
OUT ANY WIND HEADLINES FOR NOW.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF INTO EASTERN MN AND WI...WITH
THE SFC LOW OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
MAINTAINING OF PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AS IT SPINS
CURRENTLY OVER CANADA...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SET IN FOR
SUNDAY BUT WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS IN
OUR EAST SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE 70 MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
BELOW AVERAGE...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH READINGS A BIT CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL OCCUR DURING THIS
TIME WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH RATHER LIGHT
WINDS. THERMAL FIELDS VERY GRADUALLY WARM...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT
SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST THREE QUARTERS OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING BREEZY WEST WINDS
BEHIND IT. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS OVER 25 KTS. KDVL COULD BE EVEN HIGHER WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS AND SUSTAINED OVER 20 KTS. THERE COULD BE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT...BUT
THINK THUNDER IS A LOW ENOUGH CHANCE TO JUST CONTINUE WITH VCSH AT
THIS TIME. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KBIS 260821
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
321 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW
CIRCULATING OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A 1003MB SURFACE LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER WYNYARD SASKATCHEWAN...DIRECTLY BENEATH THE UPPER LOW.
AS A RESULT...THE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL/WEAKEN WITH TIME. ATTACHED
TO THE LOW IS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO MINOT AND GARRISON...AND CONTINUING SOUTH TO
GLEN ULLIN AND HETTINGER. COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY COMBINED WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE...INCLUDING TODAYS DATA...THE MET/NAM WIND GUIDANCE IS
WEAKER THAN THE MAV/GFS. THE LATEST RAP13 AND ECMWF FAVORS THE
LOWER END OF STRONGEST WINDS. THIS ULTIMATELY SUGGESTS A WEAK
CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WOULD LIKE TO MORE AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE FORECAST DATA WITH HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS. THUS HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AS IT REMAINS
MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. THE DAY SHIFT CAN HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AS WINDS
INCREASE BY MID/LATE MORNING TO COMPARE ACTUAL VERSUS FORECAST.

OTHERWISE THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF
LOW/MID LEVEL BKN/OVC CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THESE ARE NOW BEGINNING TO
CROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND
OF CLOUDS ARCING INTO WILLISTON AND MINOT BETWEEN 16Z-17Z. THERE
WILL BE AN AREA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TODAY. THE NAM WAS MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MAINTAINING THE
THREAT OVER THE NORTH...HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NAM AND CONTINUED/REFINED
WITH WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. HIGHS TODAY IN THE NORTH WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY/WINDY/WET CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S.
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDY WEATHER
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

ALSO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG AND NORTH OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FIELD/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME HINT PER RAP13 THAT SHOWERS
WILL ENTER FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST AT THE LAST MINUTE IF TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS THE AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MERGE INTO A LARGE HUDSON BAY
TROUGH SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH OVER
THE EAST. THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
SUNDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE H500 RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN US ONLY A FEW WEAK IMPULSES MAY BE ABLE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS POSSIBILITY LEFT WIDELY SCATTERED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BASICALLY DRY AND WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MAIN THEME TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN
25KT AND 35KT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THESE WINDS WILL ABATE BY 02Z
SUNDAY. ALSO...LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL
SAG INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL IMPACT KISN/KMOT FROM
16Z SATURDAY THROUGH 02Z SUNDAY WITH LOW VFR CONDITIONS MIXED IN
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 260821
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
321 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW
CIRCULATING OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A 1003MB SURFACE LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER WYNYARD SASKATCHEWAN...DIRECTLY BENEATH THE UPPER LOW.
AS A RESULT...THE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL/WEAKEN WITH TIME. ATTACHED
TO THE LOW IS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO MINOT AND GARRISON...AND CONTINUING SOUTH TO
GLEN ULLIN AND HETTINGER. COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY COMBINED WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE...INCLUDING TODAYS DATA...THE MET/NAM WIND GUIDANCE IS
WEAKER THAN THE MAV/GFS. THE LATEST RAP13 AND ECMWF FAVORS THE
LOWER END OF STRONGEST WINDS. THIS ULTIMATELY SUGGESTS A WEAK
CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WOULD LIKE TO MORE AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE FORECAST DATA WITH HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS. THUS HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AS IT REMAINS
MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. THE DAY SHIFT CAN HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AS WINDS
INCREASE BY MID/LATE MORNING TO COMPARE ACTUAL VERSUS FORECAST.

OTHERWISE THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF
LOW/MID LEVEL BKN/OVC CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THESE ARE NOW BEGINNING TO
CROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND
OF CLOUDS ARCING INTO WILLISTON AND MINOT BETWEEN 16Z-17Z. THERE
WILL BE AN AREA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TODAY. THE NAM WAS MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MAINTAINING THE
THREAT OVER THE NORTH...HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NAM AND CONTINUED/REFINED
WITH WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. HIGHS TODAY IN THE NORTH WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY/WINDY/WET CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S.
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDY WEATHER
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

ALSO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG AND NORTH OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FIELD/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME HINT PER RAP13 THAT SHOWERS
WILL ENTER FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST AT THE LAST MINUTE IF TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS THE AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MERGE INTO A LARGE HUDSON BAY
TROUGH SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH OVER
THE EAST. THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
SUNDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE H500 RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN US ONLY A FEW WEAK IMPULSES MAY BE ABLE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS POSSIBILITY LEFT WIDELY SCATTERED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BASICALLY DRY AND WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MAIN THEME TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN
25KT AND 35KT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THESE WINDS WILL ABATE BY 02Z
SUNDAY. ALSO...LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL
SAG INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL IMPACT KISN/KMOT FROM
16Z SATURDAY THROUGH 02Z SUNDAY WITH LOW VFR CONDITIONS MIXED IN
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 260821
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
321 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW
CIRCULATING OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A 1003MB SURFACE LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER WYNYARD SASKATCHEWAN...DIRECTLY BENEATH THE UPPER LOW.
AS A RESULT...THE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL/WEAKEN WITH TIME. ATTACHED
TO THE LOW IS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO MINOT AND GARRISON...AND CONTINUING SOUTH TO
GLEN ULLIN AND HETTINGER. COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY COMBINED WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE...INCLUDING TODAYS DATA...THE MET/NAM WIND GUIDANCE IS
WEAKER THAN THE MAV/GFS. THE LATEST RAP13 AND ECMWF FAVORS THE
LOWER END OF STRONGEST WINDS. THIS ULTIMATELY SUGGESTS A WEAK
CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WOULD LIKE TO MORE AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE FORECAST DATA WITH HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS. THUS HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AS IT REMAINS
MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. THE DAY SHIFT CAN HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AS WINDS
INCREASE BY MID/LATE MORNING TO COMPARE ACTUAL VERSUS FORECAST.

OTHERWISE THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF
LOW/MID LEVEL BKN/OVC CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THESE ARE NOW BEGINNING TO
CROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND
OF CLOUDS ARCING INTO WILLISTON AND MINOT BETWEEN 16Z-17Z. THERE
WILL BE AN AREA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TODAY. THE NAM WAS MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MAINTAINING THE
THREAT OVER THE NORTH...HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NAM AND CONTINUED/REFINED
WITH WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. HIGHS TODAY IN THE NORTH WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY/WINDY/WET CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S.
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDY WEATHER
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

ALSO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG AND NORTH OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FIELD/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME HINT PER RAP13 THAT SHOWERS
WILL ENTER FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST AT THE LAST MINUTE IF TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS THE AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MERGE INTO A LARGE HUDSON BAY
TROUGH SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH OVER
THE EAST. THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
SUNDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE H500 RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN US ONLY A FEW WEAK IMPULSES MAY BE ABLE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS POSSIBILITY LEFT WIDELY SCATTERED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BASICALLY DRY AND WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MAIN THEME TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN
25KT AND 35KT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THESE WINDS WILL ABATE BY 02Z
SUNDAY. ALSO...LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL
SAG INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL IMPACT KISN/KMOT FROM
16Z SATURDAY THROUGH 02Z SUNDAY WITH LOW VFR CONDITIONS MIXED IN
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 260821
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
321 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW
CIRCULATING OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A 1003MB SURFACE LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER WYNYARD SASKATCHEWAN...DIRECTLY BENEATH THE UPPER LOW.
AS A RESULT...THE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL/WEAKEN WITH TIME. ATTACHED
TO THE LOW IS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO MINOT AND GARRISON...AND CONTINUING SOUTH TO
GLEN ULLIN AND HETTINGER. COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY COMBINED WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE...INCLUDING TODAYS DATA...THE MET/NAM WIND GUIDANCE IS
WEAKER THAN THE MAV/GFS. THE LATEST RAP13 AND ECMWF FAVORS THE
LOWER END OF STRONGEST WINDS. THIS ULTIMATELY SUGGESTS A WEAK
CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WOULD LIKE TO MORE AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE FORECAST DATA WITH HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS. THUS HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AS IT REMAINS
MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. THE DAY SHIFT CAN HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AS WINDS
INCREASE BY MID/LATE MORNING TO COMPARE ACTUAL VERSUS FORECAST.

OTHERWISE THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF
LOW/MID LEVEL BKN/OVC CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THESE ARE NOW BEGINNING TO
CROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND
OF CLOUDS ARCING INTO WILLISTON AND MINOT BETWEEN 16Z-17Z. THERE
WILL BE AN AREA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TODAY. THE NAM WAS MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MAINTAINING THE
THREAT OVER THE NORTH...HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NAM AND CONTINUED/REFINED
WITH WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. HIGHS TODAY IN THE NORTH WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY/WINDY/WET CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S.
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDY WEATHER
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

ALSO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG AND NORTH OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FIELD/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME HINT PER RAP13 THAT SHOWERS
WILL ENTER FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST AT THE LAST MINUTE IF TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS THE AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MERGE INTO A LARGE HUDSON BAY
TROUGH SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH OVER
THE EAST. THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
SUNDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE H500 RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN US ONLY A FEW WEAK IMPULSES MAY BE ABLE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS POSSIBILITY LEFT WIDELY SCATTERED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BASICALLY DRY AND WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MAIN THEME TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN
25KT AND 35KT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THESE WINDS WILL ABATE BY 02Z
SUNDAY. ALSO...LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL
SAG INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL IMPACT KISN/KMOT FROM
16Z SATURDAY THROUGH 02Z SUNDAY WITH LOW VFR CONDITIONS MIXED IN
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS









000
FXUS63 KFGF 260753
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
253 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS TODAY AND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

A VERY WRAPPED UP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS A LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 70S IN
OUR NORTHWEST CORNER WHILE THE SOUTH WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY IN THE
80S. ALL THE MODELS BREAK OUT PRECIP ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
KEPT SCATTERED POPS GOING...MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST CLOSEST
TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. CAPE VALUES ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 1000 J/KG AT MOST...SO THINK THAT THUNDER WILL
BE PRETTY ISOLATED.

WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING...SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS BRINGING WIND SPEEDS IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA UP TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. NOT ALL DO HOWEVER...AND EVEN THE STRONGER
GUIDANCE IS BORDERLINE. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MIXING UP TO
850MB...BUT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE AROUND 35 KTS
AT MOST. THINK THAT IT WILL BE BREEZY...PARTICULARLY NEAR SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL ASSIST MIXING. WILL LEAVE
OUT ANY WIND HEADLINES FOR NOW.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF INTO EASTERN MN AND WI...WITH
THE SFC LOW OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
MAINTAINING OF PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AS IT SPINS
CURRENTLY OVER CANADA...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SET IN FOR
SUNDAY BUT WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS IN
OUR EAST SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE 70 MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
BELOW AVERAGE...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH READINGS A BIT CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL OCCUR DURING THIS
TIME WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH RATHER LIGHT
WINDS. THERMAL FIELDS VERY GRADUALLY WARM...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT
SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CURRENTLY VFR THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE OVERNIGHT TIME
FRAME AS FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...BEST AREA REMAINS SOUTH OF
BJI AND EAST OF FAR. THAT SAID WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE VSBYS
IMPACTED AT THESE LOCALES BEFORE 11Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW
WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 30KTS POSSIBLE 35KTS AT DVL
IN THE AFTN. CIGS MAY BECOME MVFR BY TOMORROW EVENING IN THE
NORTH.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 260513
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1213 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG A LINE
FROM LIGNITE TO STANLEY...WATFORD CITY TO BEACH. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE A SOUTHEAST TRACK OVERNIGHT REACHING BISMARCK BY 10Z AND
JAMESTOWN 13Z-14Z. OVERALL A CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHWEST/NORTHERN BORDER WHERE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH
02 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 2230 UTC...THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS ON TRACK WITH CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS IN
THE DRY SLOT OF THE DEEP LOW ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS SATURDAY: THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH...AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH DRY AIR
CONTINUING TO PUSH INTO THE STATE. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 40S
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH 50S AND 60S IN THE DEVILS LAKE/JAMES
RIVER BASINS. MEANWHILE A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE
BORDER OF CENTRAL ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.

TONIGHT THE DRY SURFACE AIR WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH
OR SO WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THIS EVENING...BUT
SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CANADA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO THE MANITOBA/MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD (OVER
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON) TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL.
EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WITH LAYERS OF LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND THE COOLER POOL OF AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
FORMATION OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.

IN ADDITION...THE WIND FIELD WILL BE LINKED FROM THE SURFACE UP TO
H800 AND ALLOW NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. LOOKS LIKE A BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY (CRITERIA IS
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 30 MPH OR GUSTS TO 40 MPH) DAY FOR THE SOUTHWEST.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ISSUANCE FOR A WIND
ADVISORY THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

A COOL DAY IN THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOL AND DRY IS THE TREND FOR THE LONG TERM.

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...EJECTS
EASTWARD. THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF HAS THIS CYCLONE EJECTING EASTWARD
INTO MANITOBA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH AND EAST NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DEPART THE AREA AND
TRANSITION INTO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.

MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN AND REMAIN
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL USHER IN DRYER AND COOLER AIR. WITH WEAK FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION AND DRYER AIR ADVECTING
IN...MOISTURE...AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY...SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
AT LEAST UNTIL MIDWEEK. THEREFORE...A MOSTLY DRY WEEK IS EXPECTED.
OCCASIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT
NO WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ALREADY THROUGH
KISN AND IT WILL PASS THROUGH KDIK/KMOT/KBIS BY 12Z AND THROUGH
KJMS BY 14Z SATURDAY. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
ENVELOP THE TERMINALS AROUND 15Z SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z
SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS BETWEEN 25KT AND 35KT. VFR CIGS IN ALL
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER KMOT/KISN WILL SEE A VCSH WITH CIGS BETWEEN
3500 AND 5000FT AGL FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 260513
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1213 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG A LINE
FROM LIGNITE TO STANLEY...WATFORD CITY TO BEACH. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE A SOUTHEAST TRACK OVERNIGHT REACHING BISMARCK BY 10Z AND
JAMESTOWN 13Z-14Z. OVERALL A CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHWEST/NORTHERN BORDER WHERE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH
02 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 2230 UTC...THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS ON TRACK WITH CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS IN
THE DRY SLOT OF THE DEEP LOW ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS SATURDAY: THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH...AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH DRY AIR
CONTINUING TO PUSH INTO THE STATE. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 40S
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH 50S AND 60S IN THE DEVILS LAKE/JAMES
RIVER BASINS. MEANWHILE A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE
BORDER OF CENTRAL ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.

TONIGHT THE DRY SURFACE AIR WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH
OR SO WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THIS EVENING...BUT
SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CANADA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO THE MANITOBA/MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD (OVER
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON) TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL.
EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WITH LAYERS OF LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND THE COOLER POOL OF AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
FORMATION OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.

IN ADDITION...THE WIND FIELD WILL BE LINKED FROM THE SURFACE UP TO
H800 AND ALLOW NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. LOOKS LIKE A BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY (CRITERIA IS
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 30 MPH OR GUSTS TO 40 MPH) DAY FOR THE SOUTHWEST.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ISSUANCE FOR A WIND
ADVISORY THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

A COOL DAY IN THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOL AND DRY IS THE TREND FOR THE LONG TERM.

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...EJECTS
EASTWARD. THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF HAS THIS CYCLONE EJECTING EASTWARD
INTO MANITOBA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH AND EAST NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DEPART THE AREA AND
TRANSITION INTO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.

MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN AND REMAIN
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL USHER IN DRYER AND COOLER AIR. WITH WEAK FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION AND DRYER AIR ADVECTING
IN...MOISTURE...AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY...SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
AT LEAST UNTIL MIDWEEK. THEREFORE...A MOSTLY DRY WEEK IS EXPECTED.
OCCASIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT
NO WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ALREADY THROUGH
KISN AND IT WILL PASS THROUGH KDIK/KMOT/KBIS BY 12Z AND THROUGH
KJMS BY 14Z SATURDAY. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
ENVELOP THE TERMINALS AROUND 15Z SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z
SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS BETWEEN 25KT AND 35KT. VFR CIGS IN ALL
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER KMOT/KISN WILL SEE A VCSH WITH CIGS BETWEEN
3500 AND 5000FT AGL FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 260446
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NO CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE FA WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT.
OTHERWISE SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND BELTRAMI
COUNTIES HAVE MOVED EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS LOW END PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF THE VALLEY. SPOTTY CONVECTION TRYING TO
ORGANIZE JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER ALONG BOUNDARY AHEAD OF WEAK MID
LEVEL IMPULSE. COULD SEE SOME SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON SO LOW POPS SEEM JUSTIFIED. BY EVENING FRONT SHOULD
BE EAST OF FA OR CLOSE TO SO KEPT THE OVERNIGHT DRY. THERMAL RIDGE
SHIFTS OVER FA HOWEVER WITH FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT MIXING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DIP A TAD BLO AVERAGE.

ON SATURDAY UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS IT
DOES A RESPECTABLE COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE FA.
COLD POOL ENTERS THE NORTHERN FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN THIS AREA. AIRMASS FAIRLY STABLE SO
CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANY T AND TRIMMED BACK TO MOSTLY SHRA. SOUTHERN
FA SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER TO AVERAGE MID SUMMER VALUES
WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. FAIRLY DEEP MIXED
LAYER SO EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER DVL BASIN.

UPPER LOW DROPS SE ACROSS NE MN OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW
POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY NE HALF OF FA AS TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOLLOWS UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH SCT SHRA.

UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. COOLER COLUMN
WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT BLO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

HIGH AND DRY BEST DESCRIBES THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIODS. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE BOTH LOCKED ONTO A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE WESTERN NOAM H5
RIDGE POSITION THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WITH NO CLEAR SIGNS
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS.  THE ECMWF HAS A THREAT OF A ISOLATED SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY
OR EARLY THURSDAY... BUT WITH THE GFS COMING IN MARKEDLY DRY DURING
THAT SAME PERIOD...BOTH NCEP AND CONSENSUS POPS WOULD KEEP US DRY.
UNDER SUCH A SCENARIO...MAX AND MIN TEMPS ARE TRENDED VERY NEAR LONG
TERM SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CURRENTLY VFR THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE OVERNIGHT TIME
FRAME AS FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...BEST AREA REMAINS SOUTH OF
BJI AND EAST OF FAR. THAT SAID WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE VSBYS
IMPACTED AT THESE LOCALES BEFORE 11Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW
WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 30KTS POSSIBLE 35KTS AT DVL
IN THE AFTN. CIGS MAY BECOME MVFR BY TOMORROW EVENING IN THE
NORTH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...JK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 260446
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NO CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE FA WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT.
OTHERWISE SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND BELTRAMI
COUNTIES HAVE MOVED EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS LOW END PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF THE VALLEY. SPOTTY CONVECTION TRYING TO
ORGANIZE JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER ALONG BOUNDARY AHEAD OF WEAK MID
LEVEL IMPULSE. COULD SEE SOME SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON SO LOW POPS SEEM JUSTIFIED. BY EVENING FRONT SHOULD
BE EAST OF FA OR CLOSE TO SO KEPT THE OVERNIGHT DRY. THERMAL RIDGE
SHIFTS OVER FA HOWEVER WITH FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT MIXING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DIP A TAD BLO AVERAGE.

ON SATURDAY UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS IT
DOES A RESPECTABLE COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE FA.
COLD POOL ENTERS THE NORTHERN FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN THIS AREA. AIRMASS FAIRLY STABLE SO
CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANY T AND TRIMMED BACK TO MOSTLY SHRA. SOUTHERN
FA SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER TO AVERAGE MID SUMMER VALUES
WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. FAIRLY DEEP MIXED
LAYER SO EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER DVL BASIN.

UPPER LOW DROPS SE ACROSS NE MN OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW
POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY NE HALF OF FA AS TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOLLOWS UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH SCT SHRA.

UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. COOLER COLUMN
WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT BLO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

HIGH AND DRY BEST DESCRIBES THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIODS. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE BOTH LOCKED ONTO A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE WESTERN NOAM H5
RIDGE POSITION THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WITH NO CLEAR SIGNS
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS.  THE ECMWF HAS A THREAT OF A ISOLATED SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY
OR EARLY THURSDAY... BUT WITH THE GFS COMING IN MARKEDLY DRY DURING
THAT SAME PERIOD...BOTH NCEP AND CONSENSUS POPS WOULD KEEP US DRY.
UNDER SUCH A SCENARIO...MAX AND MIN TEMPS ARE TRENDED VERY NEAR LONG
TERM SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CURRENTLY VFR THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE OVERNIGHT TIME
FRAME AS FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...BEST AREA REMAINS SOUTH OF
BJI AND EAST OF FAR. THAT SAID WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE VSBYS
IMPACTED AT THESE LOCALES BEFORE 11Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW
WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 30KTS POSSIBLE 35KTS AT DVL
IN THE AFTN. CIGS MAY BECOME MVFR BY TOMORROW EVENING IN THE
NORTH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...JK







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