Latest:
 AFDBIS |  AFDFGF |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KBIS 011448
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
948 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE BORDER OF MONTANA/WYOMING/DAKOTAS
THIS MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT NORTHEAST/NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A GOOD MIX-OUT DAY...AND AS SURFACE
LINKS ALOFT TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 60S AND DEWPOINTS LOWER.
EXPECTING LOWER AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM 15 TO 20
PERCENT. FARTHER SOUTH 20 TO 25 PERCENT VALUES WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE
FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL
DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LIGHT WINDS
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ARE IN STORE. AS FAR AS THE EARLY MORNING
UPDATE THE ONLY CHANCE WAS TO UPDATE LATEST OBSERVATIONS RESULTING
IN A COOLER START TO THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
MOVING FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN WILL DROP SOUTH
BRINING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWER INTO THE
NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DID MANUALLY ADJUST AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN OUR DEFAULT GUIDANCE...GIVING US SOME
HUMIDITIES IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 20 TO 25 PERCENT RH EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA. BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
FOR TODAY. BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES 2-5 DEGREES OVER SATURDAYS
HIGHS.

MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WHICH DROPS ALMOST DUE SOUTH ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG WESTERN U.S./CANADA UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP SOME LIGHT QPF DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 09 UTC.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

OVERALL...DRY AND SEASONABLE TO MILD THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DEVELOPS A
CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY
MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...WOULD NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND QPF AMOUNTS OF MAYBE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
TOPS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

ANOTHER WAVE DROPS DOWN THE BUILDING RIDGE ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. BY
THIS TIME THE RIDGE HAS ADVANCED EASTWARD ENOUGH THAT ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND THE ONLY AFFECTS WILL BE A SLIGHT DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S
TUESDAY AND LOWER 60S EAST TO MID 70S WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUND INTO THE 70S FOR THE MOST PART BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

BY FRIDAY A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER
RIDGE THAT HAS ADVANCED INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SKC THROUGH 06Z MON...THEN SCT/BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 5KFT AND 10KFT.
LIGHT WINDS NEXT 24HR...LESS THAN 10KT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KFGF 011425
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
925 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

BEAUTIFUL START TO THE MONTH OF MAY WITH A LOT OF SUN AND FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS TODAY. FORECAST ALREADY HAS THIS COVERED WELL SO NO
UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MUCH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE AREA TODAY AS SFC LOW IS NOW WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MUCH WEAKER. ALSO
SFC HIGH IS A BIT CLOSER OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. EXPECT FULL SUN
AND LIGHT WINDS. 925-850 MB TEMPS ARE A TAD WARMER THAN ON
SATURDAY SO JUST A 1-3 DEG RISE IN HIGHS TODAY VS SATURDAY WITH
THE WARMEST READINGS IN THE NRN VALLEY. A MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT.
UPSTREAM IS A SHORT WAVE OVER NRN SASKATCHEWAN WHICH WILL DROP
SOUTH TOWARD NRN ND BY 12Z AND THEN THRU CNTRL ND MONDAY MORNING.
ECMWF REMAINS MORE BULLISH WITH SOME LIGHT QPF BUT EVEN GFS SHOWS
A LITTLE BIT AND WPC DOES AS WELL IN CNTRL ND (AND MY WESTERN FCST
AREA) MAINLY 12Z-18Z MONDAY. CANADIAN RADARS SHOW SOME ECHOES WITH
WAVE AND OBS HAVE -RA AT STONY POINT SK. OVERALL FELT WORTHY OF
ADDING A VERY LOW POP LATE TONIGHT IN THE FAR NW FCST AREA AND
THEN DURING THE MORNING IN DVL BASIN AND JUST WEST OF VALLEY CITY.
MOISTURE IS MID LEVEL BASED AND AIRMASS BELOW CLOUD BASE IS QUITE
DRY SO PROBABLY MORE VIRGA OR SPRINKLES. STILL MILD ON MONDAY AS
WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

TUESDAY WILL SEE A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH THRU THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. A BIT COOLER FOR WED WITH HIGHS
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. COOLEST OF AIR STAYS JUST EAST OF OUR AREA.
WARMING QUITE NICELY FOR THU-FRI AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND
HIGHS WARM INTO THE 70S IN MANY AREAS ON FRIDAY. RISK OF A FEW
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A NRN STREAM
WAVE MOVING THRU CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR THRU THE PD. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. WINDS
MAINLY MORE OF A NORTH DIRECTION 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 011203
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
703 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

NO CHANGES TO GOING FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MUCH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE AREA TODAY AS SFC LOW IS NOW WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MUCH WEAKER. ALSO
SFC HIGH IS A BIT CLOSER OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. EXPECT FULL SUN
AND LIGHT WINDS. 925-850 MB TEMPS ARE A TAD WARMER THAN ON
SATURDAY SO JUST A 1-3 DEG RISE IN HIGHS TODAY VS SATURDAY WITH
THE WARMEST READINGS IN THE NRN VALLEY. A MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT.
UPSTREAM IS A SHORT WAVE OVER NRN SASKATCHEWAN WHICH WILL DROP
SOUTH TOWARD NRN ND BY 12Z AND THEN THRU CNTRL ND MONDAY MORNING.
ECMWF REMAINS MORE BULLISH WITH SOME LIGHT QPF BUT EVEN GFS SHOWS
A LITTLE BIT AND WPC DOES AS WELL IN CNTRL ND (AND MY WESTERN FCST
AREA) MAINLY 12Z-18Z MONDAY. CANADIAN RADARS SHOW SOME ECHOES WITH
WAVE AND OBS HAVE -RA AT STONY POINT SK. OVERALL FELT WORTHY OF
ADDING A VERY LOW POP LATE TONIGHT IN THE FAR NW FCST AREA AND
THEN DURING THE MORNING IN DVL BASIN AND JUST WEST OF VALLEY CITY.
MOISTURE IS MID LEVEL BASED AND AIRMASS BELOW CLOUD BASE IS QUITE
DRY SO PROBABLY MORE VIRGA OR SPRINKLES. STILL MILD ON MONDAY AS
WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

TUESDAY WILL SEE A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH THRU THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. A BIT COOLER FOR WED WITH HIGHS
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. COOLEST OF AIR STAYS JUST EAST OF OUR AREA.
WARMING QUITE NICELY FOR THU-FRI AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND
HIGHS WARM INTO THE 70S IN MANY AREAS ON FRIDAY. RISK OF A FEW
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A NRN STREAM
WAVE MOVING THRU CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR THRU THE PD. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. WINDS
MAINLY MORE OF A NORTH DIRECTION 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 011203
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
703 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

NO CHANGES TO GOING FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MUCH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE AREA TODAY AS SFC LOW IS NOW WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MUCH WEAKER. ALSO
SFC HIGH IS A BIT CLOSER OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. EXPECT FULL SUN
AND LIGHT WINDS. 925-850 MB TEMPS ARE A TAD WARMER THAN ON
SATURDAY SO JUST A 1-3 DEG RISE IN HIGHS TODAY VS SATURDAY WITH
THE WARMEST READINGS IN THE NRN VALLEY. A MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT.
UPSTREAM IS A SHORT WAVE OVER NRN SASKATCHEWAN WHICH WILL DROP
SOUTH TOWARD NRN ND BY 12Z AND THEN THRU CNTRL ND MONDAY MORNING.
ECMWF REMAINS MORE BULLISH WITH SOME LIGHT QPF BUT EVEN GFS SHOWS
A LITTLE BIT AND WPC DOES AS WELL IN CNTRL ND (AND MY WESTERN FCST
AREA) MAINLY 12Z-18Z MONDAY. CANADIAN RADARS SHOW SOME ECHOES WITH
WAVE AND OBS HAVE -RA AT STONY POINT SK. OVERALL FELT WORTHY OF
ADDING A VERY LOW POP LATE TONIGHT IN THE FAR NW FCST AREA AND
THEN DURING THE MORNING IN DVL BASIN AND JUST WEST OF VALLEY CITY.
MOISTURE IS MID LEVEL BASED AND AIRMASS BELOW CLOUD BASE IS QUITE
DRY SO PROBABLY MORE VIRGA OR SPRINKLES. STILL MILD ON MONDAY AS
WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

TUESDAY WILL SEE A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH THRU THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. A BIT COOLER FOR WED WITH HIGHS
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. COOLEST OF AIR STAYS JUST EAST OF OUR AREA.
WARMING QUITE NICELY FOR THU-FRI AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND
HIGHS WARM INTO THE 70S IN MANY AREAS ON FRIDAY. RISK OF A FEW
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A NRN STREAM
WAVE MOVING THRU CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR THRU THE PD. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. WINDS
MAINLY MORE OF A NORTH DIRECTION 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KBIS 011125
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
625 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL
DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LIGHT WINDS
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ARE IN STORE. AS FAR AS THE EARLY MORNING
UPDATE THE ONLY CHANCE WAS TO UPDATE LATEST OBSERVATIONS RESULTING
IN A COOLER START TO THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
MOVING FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN WILL DROP SOUTH
BRINING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWER INTO THE
NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DID MANUALLY ADJUST AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN OUR DEFAULT GUIDANCE...GIVING US SOME
HUMIDITIES IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 20 TO 25 PERCENT RH EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA. BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
FOR TODAY. BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES 2-5 DEGREES OVER SATURDAYS
HIGHS.

MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WHICH DROPS ALMOST DUE SOUTH ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG WESTERN U.S./CANADA UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP SOME LIGHT QPF DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 09 UTC.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

OVERALL...DRY AND SEASONABLE TO MILD THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DEVELOPS A
CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY
MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...WOULD NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND QPF AMOUNTS OF MAYBE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
TOPS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

ANOTHER WAVE DROPS DOWN THE BUILDING RIDGE ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. BY
THIS TIME THE RIDGE HAS ADVANCED EASTWARD ENOUGH THAT ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND THE ONLY AFFECTS WILL BE A SLIGHT DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S
TUESDAY AND LOWER 60S EAST TO MID 70S WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUND INTO THE 70S FOR THE MOST PART BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

BY FRIDAY A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER
RIDGE THAT HAS ADVANCED INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SKC THROUGH 06Z MON...THEN SCT/BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 5KFT AND 10KFT.
LIGHT WINDS NEXT 24HR...LESS THAN 10KT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 010837
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
337 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
MOVING FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN WILL DROP SOUTH
BRINING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWER INTO THE
NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DID MANUALLY ADJUST AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN OUR DEFAULT GUIDANCE...GIVING US SOME
HUMIDITIES IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 20 TO 25 PERCENT RH EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA. BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
FOR TODAY. BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES 2-5 DEGREES OVER SATURDAYS
HIGHS.

MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WHICH DROPS ALMOST DUE SOUTH ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG WESTERN U.S./CANADA UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP SOME LIGHT QPF DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 09 UTC.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

OVERALL...DRY AND SEASONABLE TO MILD THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DEVELOPS A
CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY
MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...WOULD NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND QPF AMOUNTS OF MAYBE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
TOPS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

ANOTHER WAVE DROPS DOWN THE BUILDING RIDGE ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. BY
THIS TIME THE RIDGE HAS ADVANCED EASTWARD ENOUGH THAT ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND THE ONLY AFFECTS WILL BE A SLIGHT DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S
TUESDAY AND LOWER 60S EAST TO MID 70S WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUND INTO THE 70S FOR THE MOST PART BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

BY FRIDAY A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER
RIDGE THAT HAS ADVANCED INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS AND LIGHT WINDS....LESS THAN 10KT NEXT 24HR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 010816
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
316 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MUCH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE AREA TODAY AS SFC LOW IS NOW WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MUCH WEAKER. ALSO
SFC HIGH IS A BIT CLOSER OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. EXPECT FULL SUN
AND LIGHT WINDS. 925-850 MB TEMPS ARE A TAD WARMER THAN ON
SATURDAY SO JUST A 1-3 DEG RISE IN HIGHS TODAY VS SATURDAY WITH
THE WARMEST READINGS IN THE NRN VALLEY. A MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT.
UPSTREAM IS A SHORT WAVE OVER NRN SASKATCHEWAN WHICH WILL DROP
SOUTH TOWARD NRN ND BY 12Z AND THEN THRU CNTRL ND MONDAY MORNING.
ECMWF REMAINS MORE BULLISH WITH SOME LIGHT QPF BUT EVEN GFS SHOWS
A LITTLE BIT AND WPC DOES AS WELL IN CNTRL ND (AND MY WESTERN FCST
AREA) MAINLY 12Z-18Z MONDAY. CANADIAN RADARS SHOW SOME ECHOES WITH
WAVE AND OBS HAVE -RA AT STONY POINT SK. OVERALL FELT WORTHY OF
ADDING A VERY LOW POP LATE TONIGHT IN THE FAR NW FCST AREA AND
THEN DURING THE MORNING IN DVL BASIN AND JUST WEST OF VALLEY CITY.
MOISTURE IS MID LEVEL BASED AND AIRMASS BELOW CLOUD BASE IS QUITE
DRY SO PROBABLY MORE VIRGA OR SPRINKLES. STILL MILD ON MONDAY AS
WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.



.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

TUESDAY WILL SEE A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH THRU THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. A BIT COOLER FOR WED WITH HIGHS
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. COOLEST OF AIR STAYS JUST EAST OF OUR AREA.
WARMING QUITE NICELY FOR THU-FRI AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND
HIGHS WARM INTO THE 70S IN MANY AREAS ON FRIDAY. RISK OF A FEW
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A NRN STREAM
WAVE MOVING THRU CANADA.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CIRRUS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY SOUTH TOWARDS KFAR. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT... CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...GUST




000
FXUS63 KBIS 010522
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1222 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FEW
LOCALES WERE NEAR OVERNIGHT LOWS SO DROPPED TEMPERATURES IN A FEW
AREAS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 02 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
DIURNALLY WITH SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

REX BLOCK H500 PATTERN CONTINUES TO PROVIDE NORTH DAKOTA WITH QUIET
WEATHER. THE NORTHERN BRANCH H500 HIGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE THE H500 UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA REGION. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL EVENTUALLY KICK OUT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
REMNANTS OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WITH THE H500 RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN.
THE RESULT WILL BE SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S WITH
SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE H500 RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AND BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALBERTA MONDAY. THIS POSITION WILL ALLOW SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO OVER-TOP IT AND MOVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE MORE THAN THE
GFS AND EVEN CLOSES OFF AN H500 LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY...GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AN ASSOCIATED
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. THE GFS KEEPS THE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
EAST OF THE REGION AND AS SUCH IS WARMER. WILL FOLLOW THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE ON MONDAY AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER AS A
TROUGH RIDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY CARVING OUT A
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE H500 RIDGE AXIS IN EASTERN
MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE
70S WEST BUT WITH NORTHERN FLOW ALOFT EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE EAST...MORE LIKE MID 50S ACROSS TEH WESTERN DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS MOVES SLOWLY EAST PUTTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY. WILL PROBABLY START
TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS AND LIGHT WINDS....LESS THAN 10KT NEXT 24HR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 010454
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1154 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

NO SURPRISES... WINDS DROPPED OFF MARKEDLY WITH SUNSET. STILL A
FAIR NORTHEAST FLOW GRADIENT, BUT ENOUGH DECOUPLING IS EXPECTED TO
ALLOW WINDS IN SOME AREAS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
ELSE...NO SIG UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE THROUGH
THIS LATE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...AS THERE IS STILL NO MENTION OF RAIN IN THE
SHORT TERM. THEREFORE LIKE YESTERDAY...WILL BE FOCUSING ON MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES/WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPS. WINDS ONCE AGAIN
GOT FAIRLY GUSTY TODAY WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO TOP OUT ABOUT WHERE
THEY DID YESTERDAY. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING. LOOKING INTO SUNDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE CLOSE
OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. BIG CHANGE WILL BE MUCH LOWER
WIND SPEEDS. STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHORT WAVE
FURTHER WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE OTHER MODELS SHOW NO
PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE OR HAVE IT FURTHER EAST. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO DROP SOME LIGHT PCPN OVER CENTRAL ND THEN DOWN INTO
CENTRAL SD. AFTER COORDINATING WITH ADJACENT OFFICES HAVE ELECTED
TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

ABOVE MENTIONED SHORT WAVE ON THE ECMWF ALSO HOLDS BACK COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE FA FOR MONDAY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE WARMER.
HAVE KEPT THE WARMER SCENARIO FOR NOW. WINDS ON MONDAY TAKE ON
MORE OF A WEST-NW DIRECTION...BUT NOT LOOKING VERY HIGH AT THIS
POINT. FOR TUE...A STRONGER NORTHEAST TO SW THERMAL GRADIENT SETS
UP...WITH THE WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS LOOK TO BE
MORE NNW AND BECOME GUSTY BY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DRY PATTERN CONTINUES FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BETWEEN TWO UPPER SYSTEMS.
FLOW IS FAIRLY AMPLIFIED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND MODELS HAVE SOME FAIRLY COLD
850MB TEMPS MOVING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR IF NOT A BIT COOLER THAN TODAYS AND LOWERED THE BLENDED
SOLUTION A BIT TO KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. WARMING TREND FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
MODELS START TO DIVERGE ON SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF BRINGS THE NEXT
SYSTEM FURTHER EAST THAN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. EVEN
WITH THE SLOWER GFS WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION SO LOW PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE TAIL END
OF THE PERIOD SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CIRRUS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY SOUTH TOWARDS KFAR. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT... CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JR
AVIATION...GUST




000
FXUS63 KFGF 010225
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
925 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

NO SURPRISE... WINDS ARE DROPPING OFF MARKEDLY WITH SUNSET. STILL
A FAIR NORTHEAST FLOW GRADIENT, BUT ENOUGH DECOUPLING IS EXPECTED
TO ALLOW WINDS IN SOME AREAS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE
LONG. ELSE...NO SIG UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE
THROUGH THIS LATE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...AS THERE IS STILL NO MENTION OF RAIN IN THE
SHORT TERM. THEREFORE LIKE YESTERDAY...WILL BE FOCUSING ON MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES/WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPS. WINDS ONCE AGAIN
GOT FAIRLY GUSTY TODAY WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO TOP OUT ABOUT WHERE
THEY DID YESTERDAY. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING. LOOKING INTO SUNDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE CLOSE
OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. BIG CHANGE WILL BE MUCH LOWER
WIND SPEEDS. STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHORT WAVE
FURTHER WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE OTHER MODELS SHOW NO
PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE OR HAVE IT FURTHER EAST. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO DROP SOME LIGHT PCPN OVER CENTRAL ND THEN DOWN INTO
CENTRAL SD. AFTER COORDINATING WITH ADJACENT OFFICES HAVE ELECTED
TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

ABOVE MENTIONED SHORT WAVE ON THE ECMWF ALSO HOLDS BACK COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE FA FOR MONDAY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE WARMER.
HAVE KEPT THE WARMER SCENARIO FOR NOW. WINDS ON MONDAY TAKE ON
MORE OF A WEST-NW DIRECTION...BUT NOT LOOKING VERY HIGH AT THIS
POINT. FOR TUE...A STRONGER NORTHEAST TO SW THERMAL GRADIENT SETS
UP...WITH THE WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS LOOK TO BE
MORE NNW AND BECOME GUSTY BY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DRY PATTERN CONTINUES FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BETWEEN TWO UPPER SYSTEMS.
FLOW IS FAIRLY AMPLIFIED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND MODELS HAVE SOME FAIRLY COLD
850MB TEMPS MOVING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR IF NOT A BIT COOLER THAN TODAYS AND LOWERED THE BLENDED
SOLUTION A BIT TO KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. WARMING TREND FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
MODELS START TO DIVERGE ON SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF BRINGS THE NEXT
SYSTEM FURTHER EAST THAN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. EVEN
WITH THE SLOWER GFS WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION SO LOW PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE TAIL END
OF THE PERIOD SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CIRRUS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY SOUTH TOWARDS KFAR. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST INTO THE MID 20S THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT SHOULD RAPIDLY
SUBSIDE NEAR NIGHTFALL...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE IN SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JR
AVIATION...GUST/MAKOWSKI




000
FXUS63 KBIS 010223
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
923 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 02 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
DIURNALLY WITH SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

REX BLOCK H500 PATTERN CONTINUES TO PROVIDE NORTH DAKOTA WITH QUIET
WEATHER. THE NORTHERN BRANCH H500 HIGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE THE H500 UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA REGION. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL EVENTUALLY KICK OUT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
REMNANTS OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WITH THE H500 RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN.
THE RESULT WILL BE SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S WITH
SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE H500 RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AND BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALBERTA MONDAY. THIS POSITION WILL ALLOW SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO OVER-TOP IT AND MOVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE MORE THAN THE
GFS AND EVEN CLOSES OFF AN H500 LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY...GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AN ASSOCIATED
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. THE GFS KEEPS THE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
EAST OF THE REGION AND AS SUCH IS WARMER. WILL FOLLOW THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE ON MONDAY AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER AS A
TROUGH RIDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY CARVING OUT A
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE H500 RIDGE AXIS IN EASTERN
MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE
70S WEST BUT WITH NORTHERN FLOW ALOFT EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE EAST...MORE LIKE MID 50S ACROSS TEH WESTERN DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS MOVES SLOWLY EAST PUTTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY. WILL PROBABLY START
TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 302333
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
DIURNALLY WITH SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

REX BLOCK H500 PATTERN CONTINUES TO PROVIDE NORTH DAKOTA WITH QUIET
WEATHER. THE NORTHERN BRANCH H500 HIGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE THE H500 UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA REGION. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL EVENTUALLY KICK OUT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
REMNANTS OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WITH THE H500 RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN.
THE RESULT WILL BE SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S WITH
SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE H500 RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AND BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALBERTA MONDAY. THIS POSITION WILL ALLOW SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO OVER-TOP IT AND MOVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE MORE THAN THE
GFS AND EVEN CLOSES OFF AN H500 LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY...GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AN ASSOCIATED
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. THE GFS KEEPS THE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
EAST OF THE REGION AND AS SUCH IS WARMER. WILL FOLLOW THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE ON MONDAY AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER AS A
TROUGH RIDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY CARVING OUT A
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE H500 RIDGE AXIS IN EASTERN
MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE
70S WEST BUT WITH NORTHERN FLOW ALOFT EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE EAST...MORE LIKE MID 50S ACROSS TEH WESTERN DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS MOVES SLOWLY EAST PUTTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY. WILL PROBABLY START
TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KFGF 302310
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
610 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

TEMPS STARTING TO COOL SLIGHTLY WHILE GUSTY NORTHEAST FLOW
PERSISTS. MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOWED FAIRLY CLOSE TO FORECAST. NO SIG
UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE THROUGH THIS EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...AS THERE IS STILL NO MENTION OF RAIN IN THE
SHORT TERM. THEREFORE LIKE YESTERDAY...WILL BE FOCUSING ON MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES/WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPS. WINDS ONCE AGAIN
GOT FAIRLY GUSTY TODAY WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO TOP OUT ABOUT WHERE
THEY DID YESTERDAY. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING. LOOKING INTO SUNDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE CLOSE
OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. BIG CHANGE WILL BE MUCH LOWER
WIND SPEEDS. STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHORT WAVE
FURTHER WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE OTHER MODELS SHOW NO
PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE OR HAVE IT FURTHER EAST. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO DROP SOME LIGHT PCPN OVER CENTRAL ND THEN DOWN INTO
CENTRAL SD. AFTER COORDINATING WITH ADJACENT OFFICES HAVE ELECTED
TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

ABOVE MENTIONED SHORT WAVE ON THE ECMWF ALSO HOLDS BACK COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE FA FOR MONDAY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE WARMER.
HAVE KEPT THE WARMER SCENARIO FOR NOW. WINDS ON MONDAY TAKE ON
MORE OF A WEST-NW DIRECTION...BUT NOT LOOKING VERY HIGH AT THIS
POINT. FOR TUE...A STRONGER NORTHEAST TO SW THERMAL GRADIENT SETS
UP...WITH THE WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS LOOK TO BE
MORE NNW AND BECOME GUSTY BY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DRY PATTERN CONTINUES FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BETWEEN TWO UPPER SYSTEMS.
FLOW IS FAIRLY AMPLIFIED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND MODELS HAVE SOME FAIRLY COLD
850MB TEMPS MOVING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR IF NOT A BIT COOLER THAN TODAYS AND LOWERED THE BLENDED
SOLUTION A BIT TO KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. WARMING TREND FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
MODELS START TO DIVERGE ON SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF BRINGS THE NEXT
SYSTEM FURTHER EAST THAN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. EVEN
WITH THE SLOWER GFS WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION SO LOW PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE TAIL END
OF THE PERIOD SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CIRRUS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY SOUTH TOWARDS KFAR. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST INTO THE MID 20S THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT SHOULD RAPIDLY
SUBSIDE NEAR NIGHTFALL...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE IN SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JR
AVIATION...GUST/MAKOWSKI




000
FXUS63 KBIS 301950
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
250 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

REX BLOCK H500 PATTERN CONTINUES TO PROVIDE NORTH DAKOTA WITH QUIET
WEATHER. THE NORTHERN BRANCH H500 HIGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE THE H500 UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA REGION. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL EVENTUALLY KICK OUT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
REMNANTS OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WITH THE H500 RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN.
THE RESULT WILL BE SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S WITH
SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE H500 RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AND BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALBERTA MONDAY. THIS POSITION WILL ALLOW SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO OVER-TOP IT AND MOVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE MORE THAN THE
GFS AND EVEN CLOSES OFF AN H500 LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY...GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AN ASSOCIATED
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. THE GFS KEEPS THE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
EAST OF THE REGION AND AS SUCH IS WARMER. WILL FOLLOW THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE ON MONDAY AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER AS A
TROUGH RIDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY CARVING OUT A
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE H500 RIDGE AXIS IN EASTERN
MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE
70S WEST BUT WITH NORTHERN FLOW ALOFT EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE EAST...MORE LIKE MID 50S ACROSS TEH WESTERN DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS MOVES SLOWLY EAST PUTTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY. WILL PROBABLY START
TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL COMBINE FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS OF
25 TO 35KTS AT KJMS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL TAF
SITES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 8 PM CDT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KFGF 301944
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
244 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...AS THERE IS STILL NO MENTION OF RAIN IN THE
SHORT TERM. THEREFORE LIKE YESTERDAY...WILL BE FOCUSING ON MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES/WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPS. WINDS ONCE AGAIN
GOT FAIRLY GUSTY TODAY WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO TOP OUT ABOUT WHERE
THEY DID YESTERDAY. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING. LOOKING INTO SUNDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE CLOSE
OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. BIG CHANGE WILL BE MUCH LOWER
WIND SPEEDS. STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHORT WAVE
FURTHER WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE OTHER MODELS SHOW NO
PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE OR HAVE IT FURTHER EAST. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO DROP SOME LIGHT PCPN OVER CENTRAL ND THEN DOWN INTO
CENTRAL SD. AFTER COORDINATING WITH ADJACENT OFFICES HAVE ELECTED
TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

ABOVE MENTIONED SHORT WAVE ON THE ECMWF ALSO HOLDS BACK COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE FA FOR MONDAY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE WARMER.
HAVE KEPT THE WARMER SCENARIO FOR NOW. WINDS ON MONDAY TAKE ON
MORE OF A WEST-NW DIRECTION...BUT NOT LOOKING VERY HIGH AT THIS
POINT. FOR TUE...A STRONGER NORTHEAST TO SW THERMAL GRADIENT SETS
UP...WITH THE WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS LOOK TO BE
MORE NNW AND BECOME GUSTY BY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DRY PATTERN CONTINUES FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BETWEEN TWO UPPER SYSTEMS.
FLOW IS FAIRLY AMPLIFIED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND MODELS HAVE SOME FAIRLY COLD
850MB TEMPS MOVING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR IF NOT A BIT COOLER THAN TODAYS AND LOWERED THE BLENDED
SOLUTION A BIT TO KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. WARMING TREND FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
MODELS START TO DIVERGE ON SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF BRINGS THE NEXT
SYSTEM FURTHER EAST THAN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. EVEN
WITH THE SLOWER GFS WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION SO LOW PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE TAIL END
OF THE PERIOD SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CIRRUS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY SOUTH TOWARDS KFAR. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST AS HIGH AS 20-30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD RAPIDLY
SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE IN SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JR
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI




000
FXUS63 KBIS 301744
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1244 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TODAY IS THE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SEEING SOME CUMULUS FORMATION ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST THAT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN UNDERNEATH THE NORTHERN H500 HIGH COMPONENT
OF THE REX BLOCK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL VERY DRY AIR SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND LOW RH
VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY NORTH. CLOUDS
SPILLING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
H500 DEFORMATION ZONE SO WILL INCREASE CLOUDS SOUTH. OTHERWISE
FORECAST TRENDING WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

ADJUSTED SKY COVER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TO BRING
SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
AROUND 18 UTC. LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR ARE INDICATING A
CU FIELD DEVELOPING HERE MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH A
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND 5K FEET. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
OTHER THAN UPDATING LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

OVERALL A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS PRODUCING A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
THROUGH THIS MORNING BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THEN BEGINS TO
RELAX THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW MOVES EAST.

THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WE WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUST
TO AROUND 30 MPH. WINDS WILL LESSEN AS YOU MOVE NORTH AND EAST BUT
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS TO AROUND 20 MPH FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL ALSO SEE OUR WARMEST
TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. WE STARTED WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HUMIDITIES GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS RESULTS IN AFTERNOON MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ANYWHERE FROM 18 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL. FIRE DANGER IN THE NORTH CENTRAL REMAINS IN THE
VERY HIGH CATEGORY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL NOT CORRESPOND WITH THE LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
PASS THIS ALONG TO THE DAY SHIFT BUT AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS. IF WINDS WOULD HOLD UP INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND HUMIDITIES DROP LOWER THAN FORECAST WE COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. EVEN IF THIS OCCURS...THINK
IT WOULD BE HARD TO REACH THE REQUIRED TIME FRAME OF A 3 HOUR
PERIOD...SO THINK ITS MINIMAL ENOUGH THAT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
NOT NEEDED.

EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS SHOVING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND THIS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-DAY OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING.

MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO
THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON SUNDAY TRANSLATES SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPING
BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WAVE TRAVERSING THE
BUILDING RIDGE ON MONDAY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. THIS IS FARTHER EAST THAN 24 HOURS AGO
AND IS THE WEST OUTLIER IN THE ENVELOPE OF DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW OUR MODEL BLEND KEEPS IT DRY ON MONDAY...AND
THIS IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION. A STRONGER WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE
RIDGE BY MID WEEK IS FARTHER EAST BUT LOOKS TO BRING SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN WARMING INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS WAVE DEVELOPS INTO THE EAST LOW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
OMEGA BLOCK. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE AT THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ECMWF WANTS TO MERGE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
WITH THE WESTERN LOW AS THE NORTHERN WAVE BREAKS DOWN THE CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND KEEPS THE WESTERN TROUGH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH SIGNIFICANT DETERMINISTIC MODEL DIFFERENCES AND A LARGE
SPREAD OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS TO THE NORTH OF THE OMEGA
BLOCK...WILL STICK WITH OUR MODEL BLEND SOLUTION WHICH DOES BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL COMBINE FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS OF
25 TO 35KTS AT KJMS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL TAF
SITES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 8 PM CDT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KFGF 301731
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1231 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST STILL LOOKING GOOD SO NO UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO WRN KANSAS WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS
DROPPING SOUTH THRU NW ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. IN BETWEEN IS
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WITH THE CENTER OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.
AT THE SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO SRN NEBRASKA AND HIGH BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA WILL CONTINUE OUR EAST TO NORTHEAST
SFC GRADIENT. AS LOW IN NEBRASKA IS CLOSER TODAY SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS A BIT TIGHTER AND THUS SFC WINDS TODAY A BIG HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS THINNING OUT AS THEY MOVE NORTH INTO SRN ND. OUTSIDE OF
SOME CIRRUS...MAINLY IN THE SRN FCST AREA...LOTS OF SUN TODAY.
TEMP PROFILES SHOW PERHAPS A TAD COOLER 925-850 MB LAYER SO HIGH
TEMPS TODAY MAY COME SHY OF WHAT THEY WERE ON FRIDAY.

CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AS THE SFC LOW AND UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST SUNDAY LOOK FOR BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A LESS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. THUS LIGHTER
WINDS SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER
THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

500 MB RIDGE STRENGTHENS FURTHER OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN
MONDAY AND MILDER SFC-850 MB AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH WEST WINDS.
QUITE MILD WITH AFTN HIGHS MONDAY INTO THE 70S OVER NRN ND AND
INTO A LARGE PART OF WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF
DO PAINT A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN OUR WARM ADVECTION REGIME VS THE
GFS/GEM. WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED
TO 500 MB OR HIGHER.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA. LONG WAVE RIDGE IN
WESTERN CANADA AMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH DAY 5 THEN DE-AMPLIFIES
THEREAFTER. LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST AND MOVES
INTO CA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL PATTERN
DE-AMPLIFIES A BIT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ECMWF WAS THE FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION THAN THE GFS.
WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUE, THU AND FRI. A DEGREE OR
SO HIGHER FOR WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CIRRUS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY SOUTH TOWARDS KFAR. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST AS HIGH AS 20-30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD RAPIDLY
SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE IN SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI




000
FXUS63 KBIS 301434
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
934 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN UNDERNEATH THE NORTHERN H500 HIGH COMPONENT
OF THE REX BLOCK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL VERY DRY AIR SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND LOW RH
VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY NORTH. CLOUDS
SPILLING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
H500 DEFORMATION ZONE SO WILL INCREASE CLOUDS SOUTH. OTHERWISE
FORECAST TRENDING WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

ADJUSTED SKY COVER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TO BRING
SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
AROUND 18 UTC. LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR ARE INDICATING A
CU FIELD DEVELOPING HERE MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH A
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND 5K FEET. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
OTHER THAN UPDATING LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

OVERALL A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS PRODUCING A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
THROUGH THIS MORNING BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THEN BEGINS TO
RELAX THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW MOVES EAST.

THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WE WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUST
TO AROUND 30 MPH. WINDS WILL LESSEN AS YOU MOVE NORTH AND EAST BUT
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS TO AROUND 20 MPH FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL ALSO SEE OUR WARMEST
TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. WE STARTED WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HUMIDITIES GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS RESULTS IN AFTERNOON MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ANYWHERE FROM 18 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL. FIRE DANGER IN THE NORTH CENTRAL REMAINS IN THE
VERY HIGH CATEGORY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL NOT CORRESPOND WITH THE LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
PASS THIS ALONG TO THE DAY SHIFT BUT AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS. IF WINDS WOULD HOLD UP INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND HUMIDITIES DROP LOWER THAN FORECAST WE COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. EVEN IF THIS OCCURS...THINK
IT WOULD BE HARD TO REACH THE REQUIRED TIME FRAME OF A 3 HOUR
PERIOD...SO THINK ITS MINIMAL ENOUGH THAT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
NOT NEEDED.

EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS SHOVING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND THIS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-DAY OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING.

MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO
THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON SUNDAY TRANSLATES SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPING
BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WAVE TRAVERSING THE
BUILDING RIDGE ON MONDAY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. THIS IS FARTHER EAST THAN 24 HOURS AGO
AND IS THE WEST OUTLIER IN THE ENVELOPE OF DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW OUR MODEL BLEND KEEPS IT DRY ON MONDAY...AND
THIS IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION. A STRONGER WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE
RIDGE BY MID WEEK IS FARTHER EAST BUT LOOKS TO BRING SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN WARMING INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS WAVE DEVELOPS INTO THE EAST LOW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
OMEGA BLOCK. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE AT THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ECMWF WANTS TO MERGE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
WITH THE WESTERN LOW AS THE NORTHERN WAVE BREAKS DOWN THE CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND KEEPS THE WESTERN TROUGH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH SIGNIFICANT DETERMINISTIC MODEL DIFFERENCES AND A LARGE
SPREAD OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS TO THE NORTH OF THE OMEGA
BLOCK...WILL STICK WITH OUR MODEL BLEND SOLUTION WHICH DOES BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A SCT/BKN CUMULUS
FIELD BASED AT 5KFT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS OF
15KT TO 25KT WILL OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KFGF 301433
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY RUNNING ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THIS TIME YESTERDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THE RISE REALLY SLOWED DOWN BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS YESTERDAY. SO AT THIS POINT DO NOT PLAN ON
DOING ANY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS. ONLY SEEING SOME THIN CIRRUS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR...SO LOTS OF SUN
EXPECTED AGAIN. WINDS ARE COMING UP AS EXPECTED WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S IN A FEW SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO WRN KANSAS WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS
DROPPING SOUTH THRU NW ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. IN BETWEEN IS
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WITH THE CENTER OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.
AT THE SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO SRN NEBRASKA AND HIGH BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA WILL CONTINUE OUR EAST TO NORTHEAST
SFC GRADIENT. AS LOW IN NEBRASKA IS CLOSER TODAY SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS A BIT TIGHTER AND THUS SFC WINDS TODAY A BIG HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS THINNING OUT AS THEY MOVE NORTH INTO SRN ND. OUTSIDE OF
SOME CIRRUS...MAINLY IN THE SRN FCST AREA...LOTS OF SUN TODAY.
TEMP PROFILES SHOW PERHAPS A TAD COOLER 925-850 MB LAYER SO HIGH
TEMPS TODAY MAY COME SHY OF WHAT THEY WERE ON FRIDAY.

CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AS THE SFC LOW AND UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST SUNDAY LOOK FOR BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A LESS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. THUS LIGHTER
WINDS SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER
THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

500 MB RIDGE STRENGTHENS FURTHER OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN
MONDAY AND MILDER SFC-850 MB AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH WEST WINDS.
QUITE MILD WITH AFTN HIGHS MONDAY INTO THE 70S OVER NRN ND AND
INTO A LARGE PART OF WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF
DO PAINT A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN OUR WARM ADVECTION REGIME VS THE
GFS/GEM. WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED
TO 500 MB OR HIGHER.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA. LONG WAVE RIDGE IN
WESTERN CANADA AMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH DAY 5 THEN DE-AMPLIFIES
THEREAFTER. LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST AND MOVES
INTO CA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL PATTERN
DE-AMPLIFIES A BIT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ECMWF WAS THE FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION THAN THE GFS.
WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUE, THU AND FRI. A DEGREE OR
SO HIGHER FOR WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR THRU THE FCST PD. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THEY INCREASE TO THE 15-25 KT
RANGE IN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 301141
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
641 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FCST. SOME CIRRUS ENTERING THE FAR SOUTHERN
FCST AREA BUT IT WILL BE THINNING OUT AS IT TRIES TO MOVE NORTH
INTO DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO WRN KANSAS WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS
DROPPING SOUTH THRU NW ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. IN BETWEEN IS
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WITH THE CENTER OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.
AT THE SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO SRN NEBRASKA AND HIGH BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA WILL CONTINUE OUR EAST TO NORTHEAST
SFC GRADIENT. AS LOW IN NEBRASKA IS CLOSER TODAY SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS A BIT TIGHTER AND THUS SFC WINDS TODAY A BIG HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS THINNING OUT AS THEY MOVE NORTH INTO SRN ND. OUTSIDE OF
SOME CIRRUS...MAINLY IN THE SRN FCST AREA...LOTS OF SUN TODAY.
TEMP PROFILES SHOW PERHAPS A TAD COOLER 925-850 MB LAYER SO HIGH
TEMPS TODAY MAY COME SHY OF WHAT THEY WERE ON FRIDAY.

CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AS THE SFC LOW AND UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST SUNDAY LOOK FOR BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A LESS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. THUS LIGHTER
WINDS SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER
THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

500 MB RIDGE STRENGTHENS FURTHER OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN
MONDAY AND MILDER SFC-850 MB AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH WEST WINDS.
QUITE MILD WITH AFTN HIGHS MONDAY INTO THE 70S OVER NRN ND AND
INTO A LARGE PART OF WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF
DO PAINT A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN OUR WARM ADVECTION REGIME VS THE
GFS/GEM. WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED
TO 500 MB OR HIGHER.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA. LONG WAVE RIDGE IN
WESTERN CANADA AMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH DAY 5 THEN DE-AMPLIFIES
THEREAFTER. LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST AND MOVES
INTO CA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL PATTERN
DE-AMPLIFIES A BIT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ECMWF WAS THE FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION THAN THE GFS.
WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUE, THU AND FRI. A DEGREE OR
SO HIGHER FOR WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR THRU THE FCST PD. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THEY INCREASE TO THE 15-25 KT
RANGE IN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KBIS 301125
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
625 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

ADJUSTED SKY COVER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TO BRING
SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
AROUND 18 UTC. LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR ARE INDICATING A
CU FIELD DEVELOPING HERE MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH A
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND 5K FEET. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
OTHER THAN UPDATING LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

OVERALL A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS PRODUCING A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
THROUGH THIS MORNING BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THEN BEGINS TO
RELAX THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW MOVES EAST.

THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WE WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUST
TO AROUND 30 MPH. WINDS WILL LESSEN AS YOU MOVE NORTH AND EAST BUT
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS TO AROUND 20 MPH FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL ALSO SEE OUR WARMEST
TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. WE STARTED WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HUMIDITIES GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS RESULTS IN AFTERNOON MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ANYWHERE FROM 18 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL. FIRE DANGER IN THE NORTH CENTRAL REMAINS IN THE
VERY HIGH CATEGORY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL NOT CORRESPOND WITH THE LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
PASS THIS ALONG TO THE DAY SHIFT BUT AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS. IF WINDS WOULD HOLD UP INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND HUMIDITIES DROP LOWER THAN FORECAST WE COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. EVEN IF THIS OCCURS...THINK
IT WOULD BE HARD TO REACH THE REQUIRED TIME FRAME OF A 3 HOUR
PERIOD...SO THINK ITS MINIMAL ENOUGH THAT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
NOT NEEDED.

EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS SHOVING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND THIS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-DAY OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING.

MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO
THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON SUNDAY TRANSLATES SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPING
BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WAVE TRAVERSING THE
BUILDING RIDGE ON MONDAY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. THIS IS FARTHER EAST THAN 24 HOURS AGO
AND IS THE WEST OUTLIER IN THE ENVELOPE OF DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW OUR MODEL BLEND KEEPS IT DRY ON MONDAY...AND
THIS IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION. A STRONGER WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE
RIDGE BY MID WEEK IS FARTHER EAST BUT LOOKS TO BRING SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN WARMING INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS WAVE DEVELOPS INTO THE EAST LOW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
OMEGA BLOCK. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE AT THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ECMWF WANTS TO MERGE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
WITH THE WESTERN LOW AS THE NORTHERN WAVE BREAKS DOWN THE CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND KEEPS THE WESTERN TROUGH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH SIGNIFICANT DETERMINISTIC MODEL DIFFERENCES AND A LARGE
SPREAD OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS TO THE NORTH OF THE OMEGA
BLOCK...WILL STICK WITH OUR MODEL BLEND SOLUTION WHICH DOES BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A SCT/BKN CUMULUS
FIELD BASED AT 5KFT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS OF
15KT TO 25KT WILL OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 301125
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
625 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

ADJUSTED SKY COVER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TO BRING
SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
AROUND 18 UTC. LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR ARE INDICATING A
CU FIELD DEVELOPING HERE MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH A
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND 5K FEET. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
OTHER THAN UPDATING LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

OVERALL A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS PRODUCING A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
THROUGH THIS MORNING BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THEN BEGINS TO
RELAX THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW MOVES EAST.

THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WE WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUST
TO AROUND 30 MPH. WINDS WILL LESSEN AS YOU MOVE NORTH AND EAST BUT
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS TO AROUND 20 MPH FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL ALSO SEE OUR WARMEST
TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. WE STARTED WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HUMIDITIES GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS RESULTS IN AFTERNOON MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ANYWHERE FROM 18 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL. FIRE DANGER IN THE NORTH CENTRAL REMAINS IN THE
VERY HIGH CATEGORY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL NOT CORRESPOND WITH THE LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
PASS THIS ALONG TO THE DAY SHIFT BUT AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS. IF WINDS WOULD HOLD UP INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND HUMIDITIES DROP LOWER THAN FORECAST WE COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. EVEN IF THIS OCCURS...THINK
IT WOULD BE HARD TO REACH THE REQUIRED TIME FRAME OF A 3 HOUR
PERIOD...SO THINK ITS MINIMAL ENOUGH THAT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
NOT NEEDED.

EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS SHOVING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND THIS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-DAY OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING.

MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO
THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON SUNDAY TRANSLATES SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPING
BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WAVE TRAVERSING THE
BUILDING RIDGE ON MONDAY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. THIS IS FARTHER EAST THAN 24 HOURS AGO
AND IS THE WEST OUTLIER IN THE ENVELOPE OF DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW OUR MODEL BLEND KEEPS IT DRY ON MONDAY...AND
THIS IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION. A STRONGER WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE
RIDGE BY MID WEEK IS FARTHER EAST BUT LOOKS TO BRING SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN WARMING INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS WAVE DEVELOPS INTO THE EAST LOW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
OMEGA BLOCK. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE AT THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ECMWF WANTS TO MERGE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
WITH THE WESTERN LOW AS THE NORTHERN WAVE BREAKS DOWN THE CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND KEEPS THE WESTERN TROUGH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH SIGNIFICANT DETERMINISTIC MODEL DIFFERENCES AND A LARGE
SPREAD OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS TO THE NORTH OF THE OMEGA
BLOCK...WILL STICK WITH OUR MODEL BLEND SOLUTION WHICH DOES BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A SCT/BKN CUMULUS
FIELD BASED AT 5KFT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS OF
15KT TO 25KT WILL OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KFGF 300900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO WRN KANSAS WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS
DROPPING SOUTH THRU NW ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. IN BETWEEN IS
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WITH THE CENTER OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.
AT THE SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO SRN NEBRASKA AND HIGH BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA WILL CONTINUE OUR EAST TO NORTHEAST
SFC GRADIENT. AS LOW IN NEBRASKA IS CLOSER TODAY SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS A BIT TIGHTER AND THUS SFC WINDS TODAY A BIG HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS THINNING OUT AS THEY MOVE NORTH INTO SRN ND. OUTSIDE OF
SOME CIRRUS...MAINLY IN THE SRN FCST AREA...LOTS OF SUN TODAY.
TEMP PROFILES SHOW PERHAPS A TAD COOLER 925-850 MB LAYER SO HIGH
TEMPS TODAY MAY COME SHY OF WHAT THEY WERE ON FRIDAY.

CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AS THE SFC LOW AND UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST SUNDAY LOOK FOR BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A LESS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. THUS LIGHTER
WINDS SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER
THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

500 MB RIDGE STRENGTHENS FURTHER OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN
MONDAY AND MILDER SFC-850 MB AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH WEST WINDS.
QUITE MILD WITH AFTN HIGHS MONDAY INTO THE 70S OVER NRN ND AND
INTO A LARGE PART OF WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF
DO PAINT A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN OUR WARM ADVECTION REGIME VS THE
GFS/GEM. WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED
TO 500 MB OR HIGHER.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA. LONG WAVE RIDGE IN
WESTERN CANADA AMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH DAY 5 THEN DE-AMPLIFIES
THEREAFTER. LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST AND MOVES
INTO CA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL PATTERN
DE-AMPLIFIES A BIT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ECMWF WAS THE FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION THAN THE GFS.
WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUE, THU AND FRI. A DEGREE OR
SO HIGHER FOR WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ONLY A BIT OF
CIRRUS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING
TOMORROW TO GUST ABOVE 20 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN
AGAIN AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KBIS 300834
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
334 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

OVERALL A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS PRODUCING A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
THROUGH THIS MORNING BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THEN BEGINS TO
RELAX THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW MOVES EAST.

THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WE WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUST
TO AROUND 30 MPH. WINDS WILL LESSEN AS YOU MOVE NORTH AND EAST BUT
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS TO AROUND 20 MPH FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL ALSO SEE OUR WARMEST
TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. WE STARTED WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HUMIDITIES GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS RESULTS IN AFTERNOON MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ANYWHERE FROM 18 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL. FIRE DANGER IN THE NORTH CENTRAL REMAINS IN THE
VERY HIGH CATEGORY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL NOT CORRESPOND WITH THE LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
PASS THIS ALONG TO THE DAY SHIFT BUT AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS. IF WINDS WOULD HOLD UP INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND HUMIDITIES DROP LOWER THAN FORECAST WE COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. EVEN IF THIS OCCURS...THINK
IT WOULD BE HARD TO REACH THE REQUIRED TIME FRAME OF A 3 HOUR
PERIOD...SO THINK ITS MINIMAL ENOUGH THAT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
NOT NEEDED.

EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS SHOVING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND THIS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-DAY OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING.

MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO
THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON SUNDAY TRANSLATES SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPING
BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WAVE TRAVERSING THE
BUILDING RIDGE ON MONDAY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. THIS IS FARTHER EAST THAN 24 HOURS AGO
AND IS THE WEST OUTLIER IN THE ENVELOPE OF DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW OUR MODEL BLEND KEEPS IT DRY ON MONDAY...AND
THIS IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION. A STRONGER WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE
RIDGE BY MID WEEK IS FARTHER EAST BUT LOOKS TO BRING SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN WARMING INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS WAVE DEVELOPS INTO THE EAST LOW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
OMEGA BLOCK. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE AT THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ECMWF WANTS TO MERGE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
WITH THE WESTERN LOW AS THE NORTHERN WAVE BREAKS DOWN THE CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND KEEPS THE WESTERN TROUGH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH SIGNIFICANT DETERMINISTIC MODEL DIFFERENCES AND A LARGE
SPREAD OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS TO THE NORTH OF THE OMEGA
BLOCK...WILL STICK WITH OUR MODEL BLEND SOLUTION WHICH DOES BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS
15KT TO 25KT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 300527
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1227 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MORE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
MUCH IN THE SOUTHWEST BUT A FEW PLACES...LIKE HETTINGER ARE
ALREADY AT OVERNIGHT LOWS SO BUMPED THEM DOWN A LITTLE. ALSO CUT
BACK ON CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

FOR THIS UPDATE...BROUGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD AID IN LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. OTHER
THAN THAT...JUST TWEAKED CLOUD COVER AND BLENDED CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS TO THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES NEEDED. JUST
BLENDED LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING UP THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
WYOMING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME
FEATURE. HAVE ALSO NOTED THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY NORTH IS FALLING
INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERY DRY AIR MOVES SOUTH FROM THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN MANITOBA. WILL LOWER THE RH INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20 AGAIN ON SATURDAY ACROSS THIS AREA. WHILE VERY DRY THIS
DOES NOT IMPACT FIRE WEATHER AS THE WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT...AROUND 15 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE IN BREAKING DOWN A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN US
THEN EVOLVING INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN WITH A RIDGE
PRETTY MUCH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE ONLY ISSUE WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
ON THURSDAY. AS SUCH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN DESCRIBED WILL BE
DRY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THURSDAY...THEN COOLER BY A BIT
ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD TRIP A FEW SHOWERS BUT
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE STILL DRY SO PRECIPIATION WILL BE
SPOTTY. WILL NOT ADD ANY POPS TO THE DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 60S WARMING TO THE 60S TO LOWER
70S MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE SOME COOLING...AT
LEAST BACK INTO THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS
15KT TO 25KT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH/KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 300527
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1227 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MORE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
MUCH IN THE SOUTHWEST BUT A FEW PLACES...LIKE HETTINGER ARE
ALREADY AT OVERNIGHT LOWS SO BUMPED THEM DOWN A LITTLE. ALSO CUT
BACK ON CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

FOR THIS UPDATE...BROUGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD AID IN LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. OTHER
THAN THAT...JUST TWEAKED CLOUD COVER AND BLENDED CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS TO THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES NEEDED. JUST
BLENDED LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING UP THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
WYOMING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME
FEATURE. HAVE ALSO NOTED THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY NORTH IS FALLING
INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERY DRY AIR MOVES SOUTH FROM THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN MANITOBA. WILL LOWER THE RH INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20 AGAIN ON SATURDAY ACROSS THIS AREA. WHILE VERY DRY THIS
DOES NOT IMPACT FIRE WEATHER AS THE WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT...AROUND 15 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE IN BREAKING DOWN A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN US
THEN EVOLVING INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN WITH A RIDGE
PRETTY MUCH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE ONLY ISSUE WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
ON THURSDAY. AS SUCH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN DESCRIBED WILL BE
DRY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THURSDAY...THEN COOLER BY A BIT
ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD TRIP A FEW SHOWERS BUT
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE STILL DRY SO PRECIPIATION WILL BE
SPOTTY. WILL NOT ADD ANY POPS TO THE DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 60S WARMING TO THE 60S TO LOWER
70S MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE SOME COOLING...AT
LEAST BACK INTO THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS
15KT TO 25KT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH/KS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 300429
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1129 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

NO CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

TEMPERATURES STILL SEEM ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

NO CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A VERY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM SO MAIN
CHALLENGE MAY BE MORE FIRE WEATHER RELATED. THOSE CONCERNS WOULD
BE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WIND SPEEDS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES...AS MANY LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES ARE BURNING DURING THIS
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. SHOULD BE NEARLY CLOUD FREE TONIGHT WITH
WINDS DROPPING OFF. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY.
WINDS START OFF FAIRLY LOW IN THE MORNING BUT INCREASE AND THEN
GET A LITTLE GUSTY FROM THE NE BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

LOOKING AHEAD INTO SUNDAY 850MB FINALLY WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES
BUT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ND. WIND SPEEDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT ON
SUNDAY. THE SLOW WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH 850MB
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER TOO. LOOKING LIKE A STEADY WEST TO NW WIND
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ON MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION IN NW FLOW...WHILE A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND CANADA. THE ECMWF TAKES
THIS ENERGY AND CUTS OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER WY BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WHICH IS MUCH DIFFERENT COMPARED TO THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODEL. STILL...THE IMPACT OF THE EC SOLUTION OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WOULD BE MINIMAL. A STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...USHERING IN A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR CLOUD COVER...BUT RIGHT NOW
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT LIKELIHOOD IS
STILL LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S. THE COLD FRONT WILL DIP TEMPS A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY (UPPER
50S TO MID 60S)...BUT TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY
THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON FRIDAY AS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS RANGE
FROM HAVING AN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY TO AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS
NORTH CAROLINA. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD APPROACH...MODELS RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 70S OVER
THE AREA. EITHER WAY... PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL FOR
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ONLY A BIT OF
CIRRUS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING
TOMORROW TO GUST ABOVE 20 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN
AGAIN AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 300234
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
934 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

TEMPERATURES STILL SEEM ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

NO CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A VERY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM SO MAIN
CHALLENGE MAY BE MORE FIRE WEATHER RELATED. THOSE CONCERNS WOULD
BE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WIND SPEEDS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES...AS MANY LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES ARE BURNING DURING THIS
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. SHOULD BE NEARLY CLOUD FREE TONIGHT WITH
WINDS DROPPING OFF. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY.
WINDS START OFF FAIRLY LOW IN THE MORNING BUT INCREASE AND THEN
GET A LITTLE GUSTY FROM THE NE BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

LOOKING AHEAD INTO SUNDAY 850MB FINALLY WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES
BUT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ND. WIND SPEEDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT ON
SUNDAY. THE SLOW WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH 850MB
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER TOO. LOOKING LIKE A STEADY WEST TO NW WIND
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ON MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION IN NW FLOW...WHILE A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND CANADA. THE ECMWF TAKES
THIS ENERGY AND CUTS OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER WY BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WHICH IS MUCH DIFFERENT COMPARED TO THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODEL. STILL...THE IMPACT OF THE EC SOLUTION OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WOULD BE MINIMAL. A STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...USHERING IN A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR CLOUD COVER...BUT RIGHT NOW
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT LIKELIHOOD IS
STILL LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S. THE COLD FRONT WILL DIP TEMPS A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY (UPPER
50S TO MID 60S)...BUT TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY
THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON FRIDAY AS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS RANGE
FROM HAVING AN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY TO AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS
NORTH CAROLINA. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD APPROACH...MODELS RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 70S OVER
THE AREA. EITHER WAY... PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL FOR
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE AS SOME SITES
ARE STILL ABOVE 12 KTS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TO
10 KTS OR LESS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DIRECTION WILL REMAIN FROM
THE NORTHEAST...BUT SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS WE GET SOME MIXING. SOME GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 300234
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
934 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

TEMPERATURES STILL SEEM ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

NO CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A VERY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM SO MAIN
CHALLENGE MAY BE MORE FIRE WEATHER RELATED. THOSE CONCERNS WOULD
BE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WIND SPEEDS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES...AS MANY LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES ARE BURNING DURING THIS
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. SHOULD BE NEARLY CLOUD FREE TONIGHT WITH
WINDS DROPPING OFF. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY.
WINDS START OFF FAIRLY LOW IN THE MORNING BUT INCREASE AND THEN
GET A LITTLE GUSTY FROM THE NE BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

LOOKING AHEAD INTO SUNDAY 850MB FINALLY WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES
BUT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ND. WIND SPEEDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT ON
SUNDAY. THE SLOW WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH 850MB
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER TOO. LOOKING LIKE A STEADY WEST TO NW WIND
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ON MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION IN NW FLOW...WHILE A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND CANADA. THE ECMWF TAKES
THIS ENERGY AND CUTS OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER WY BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WHICH IS MUCH DIFFERENT COMPARED TO THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODEL. STILL...THE IMPACT OF THE EC SOLUTION OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WOULD BE MINIMAL. A STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...USHERING IN A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR CLOUD COVER...BUT RIGHT NOW
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT LIKELIHOOD IS
STILL LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S. THE COLD FRONT WILL DIP TEMPS A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY (UPPER
50S TO MID 60S)...BUT TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY
THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON FRIDAY AS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS RANGE
FROM HAVING AN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY TO AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS
NORTH CAROLINA. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD APPROACH...MODELS RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 70S OVER
THE AREA. EITHER WAY... PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL FOR
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE AS SOME SITES
ARE STILL ABOVE 12 KTS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TO
10 KTS OR LESS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DIRECTION WILL REMAIN FROM
THE NORTHEAST...BUT SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS WE GET SOME MIXING. SOME GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KBIS 300233
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
933 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

FOR THIS UPDATE...BROUGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD AID IN LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. OTHER
THAN THAT...JUST TWEAKED CLOUD COVER AND BLENDED CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS TO THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES NEEDED. JUST
BLENDED LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING UP THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
WYOMING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME
FEATURE. HAVE ALSO NOTED THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY NORTH IS FALLING
INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERY DRY AIR MOVES SOUTH FROM THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN MANITOBA. WILL LOWER THE RH INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20 AGAIN ON SATURDAY ACROSS THIS AREA. WHILE VERY DRY THIS
DOES NOT IMPACT FIRE WEATHER AS THE WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT...AROUND 15 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE IN BREAKING DOWN A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN US
THEN EVOLVING INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN WITH A RIDGE
PRETTY MUCH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE ONLY ISSUE WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
ON THURSDAY. AS SUCH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN DESCRIBED WILL BE
DRY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THURSDAY...THEN COOLER BY A BIT
ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD TRIP A FEW SHOWERS BUT
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE STILL DRY SO PRECIPIATION WILL BE
SPOTTY. WILL NOT ADD ANY POPS TO THE DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 60S WARMING TO THE 60S TO LOWER
70S MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE SOME COOLING...AT
LEAST BACK INTO THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIE DOWN THROUGH THE
EVENING...GIVING WAY TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST OR
NORTH NORTHEAST.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...ZH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 292342
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
642 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES NEEDED. JUST
BLENDED LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING UP THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
WYOMING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME
FEATURE. HAVE ALSO NOTED THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY NORTH IS FALLING
INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERY DRY AIR MOVES SOUTH FROM THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN MANITOBA. WILL LOWER THE RH INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20 AGAIN ON SATURDAY ACROSS THIS AREA. WHILE VERY DRY THIS
DOES NOT IMPACT FIRE WEATHER AS THE WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT...AROUND 15 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE IN BREAKING DOWN A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN US
THEN EVOLVING INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN WITH A RIDGE
PRETTY MUCH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE ONLY ISSUE WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
ON THURSDAY. AS SUCH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN DESCRIBED WILL BE
DRY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THURSDAY...THEN COOLER BY A BIT
ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD TRIP A FEW SHOWERS BUT
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE STILL DRY SO PRECIPIATION WILL BE
SPOTTY. WILL NOT ADD ANY POPS TO THE DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 60S WARMING TO THE 60S TO LOWER
70S MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE SOME COOLING...AT
LEAST BACK INTO THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIE DOWN THROUGH THE
EVENING...GIVING WAY TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST OR
NORTH NORTHEAST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...ZH




000
FXUS63 KFGF 292335
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
635 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

NO CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A VERY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM SO MAIN
CHALLENGE MAY BE MORE FIRE WEATHER RELATED. THOSE CONCERNS WOULD
BE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WIND SPEEDS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES...AS MANY LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES ARE BURNING DURING THIS
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. SHOULD BE NEARLY CLOUD FREE TONIGHT WITH
WINDS DROPPING OFF. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY.
WINDS START OFF FAIRLY LOW IN THE MORNING BUT INCREASE AND THEN
GET A LITTLE GUSTY FROM THE NE BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

LOOKING AHEAD INTO SUNDAY 850MB FINALLY WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES
BUT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ND. WIND SPEEDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT ON
SUNDAY. THE SLOW WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH 850MB
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER TOO. LOOKING LIKE A STEADY WEST TO NW WIND
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ON MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION IN NW FLOW...WHILE A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND CANADA. THE ECMWF TAKES
THIS ENERGY AND CUTS OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER WY BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WHICH IS MUCH DIFFERENT COMPARED TO THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODEL. STILL...THE IMPACT OF THE EC SOLUTION OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WOULD BE MINIMAL. A STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...USHERING IN A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR CLOUD COVER...BUT RIGHT NOW
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT LIKELIHOOD IS
STILL LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S. THE COLD FRONT WILL DIP TEMPS A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY (UPPER
50S TO MID 60S)...BUT TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY
THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON FRIDAY AS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS RANGE
FROM HAVING AN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY TO AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS
NORTH CAROLINA. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD APPROACH...MODELS RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 70S OVER
THE AREA. EITHER WAY... PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL FOR
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE AS SOME SITES
ARE STILL ABOVE 12 KTS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TO
10 KTS OR LESS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DIRECTION WILL REMAIN FROM
THE NORTHEAST...BUT SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS WE GET SOME MIXING. SOME GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 292008
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
308 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A VERY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM SO MAIN
CHALLENGE MAY BE MORE FIRE WEATHER RELATED. THOSE CONCERNS WOULD
BE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WIND SPEEDS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES...AS MANY LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES ARE BURNING DURING THIS
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. SHOULD BE NEARLY CLOUD FREE TONIGHT WITH
WINDS DROPPING OFF. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY.
WINDS START OFF FAIRLY LOW IN THE MORNING BUT INCREASE AND THEN
GET A LITTLE GUSTY FROM THE NE BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

LOOKING AHEAD INTO SUNDAY 850MB FINALLY WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES
BUT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ND. WIND SPEEDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT ON
SUNDAY. THE SLOW WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH 850MB
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER TOO. LOOKING LIKE A STEADY WEST TO NW WIND
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ON MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION IN NW FLOW...WHILE A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND CANADA. THE ECMWF TAKES
THIS ENERGY AND CUTS OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER WY BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WHICH IS MUCH DIFFERENT COMPARED TO THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODEL. STILL...THE IMPACT OF THE EC SOLUTION OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WOULD BE MINIMAL. A STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...USHERING IN A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR CLOUD COVER...BUT RIGHT NOW
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT LIKELIHOOD IS
STILL LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S. THE COLD FRONT WILL DIP TEMPS A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY (UPPER
50S TO MID 60S)...BUT TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY
THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON FRIDAY AS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS RANGE
FROM HAVING AN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY TO AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS
NORTH CAROLINA. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD APPROACH...MODELS RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 70S OVER
THE AREA. EITHER WAY... PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL FOR
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG




000
FXUS63 KBIS 291933
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
233 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING UP THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
WYOMING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME
FEATURE. HAVE ALSO NOTED THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY NORTH IS FALLING
INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERY DRY AIR MOVES SOUTH FROM THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN MANITOBA. WILL LOWER THE RH INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20 AGAIN ON SATURDAY ACROSS THIS AREA. WHILE VERY DRY THIS
DOES NOT IMPACT FIRE WEATHER AS THE WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT...AROUND 15 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE IN BREAKING DOWN A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN US
THEN EVOLVING INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN WITH A RIDGE
PRETTY MUCH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE ONLY ISSUE WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
ON THURSDAY. AS SUCH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN DESCRIBED WILL BE
DRY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THURSDAY...THEN COOLER BY A BIT
ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD TRIP A FEW SHOWERS BUT
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE STILL DRY SO PRECIPIATION WILL BE
SPOTTY. WILL NOT ADD ANY POPS TO THE DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 60S WARMING TO THE 60S TO LOWER
70S MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE SOME COOLING...AT
LEAST BACK INTO THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

LARGE SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
AND MINNESOTA WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 18Z PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KFGF 291733
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1233 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY APPROACHING FORECAST HIGHS IN A LOT OF
PLACES. WITH LOTS OF SUN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WILL GO AHEAD AND RAISE HIGHS UP INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S FOR MOST AREAS. WILL ALSO RAISE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE MORE TOO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

REX LIKE PATTERN WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW MON DEPENDING ON MODEL OF
CHOICE. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION AND NOT PREFERRED. WILL USE
A MODEL BLEND.

UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO NE BY SAT.
RAIN EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH IN SD ON SAT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REPLACE TROUGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SAT.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGH SAT. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED
DRYING/DARKENING OVER SOUTHERN MAN. DRYING SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY FRI NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND HALF AN INCH AND WILL FALL TO AROUND A
THIRD OF AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON SUN WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT.

FOG LOOP AND SFC OBS INDICATED CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. A CLEAR
SKY SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

LOOKING AT A DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURE OVERALL RUNNING CLOSE TO
THE LONG TERM NORMALS.  AREA WILL START OFF NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN AN AREA OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.  WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE DROP
SOUTH AROUND THE HUDSON BAY TROUGH WITH A COOL FRONT COMING THROUGH.
AIRMASS IS QUIET DRY SO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT.  THIS
DRIER PATTERN LOOKS TO LAST WELL BEYOND THE 7 DAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG




000
FXUS63 KBIS 291659
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1159 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE SOUTHWEST IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK H500 TROUGH RIDING UP THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL US.
THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 831 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

ADDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
WHERE BOWMAN RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS. OTHERWISE
FORECAST TRENDING OK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SKIES
HAVE CLEARED SOME...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND HAVE
LOWERED SKY COVER HERE THIS MORNING. POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS AND BLENDED TEMPERATURES INTO OUR CURRENT
MID-MORNING FORECAST TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

RATHER UNEVENTFUL SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
ISSUE BEING MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE NORTH.

THE HIGH OVER LOW BLOCKING PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD MEANING NO
SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
FORECAST AREA. WE WOULD PROBABLY BE QUITE A BIT COOLER IF THE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WERE
A LITTLE LESS ROBUST. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING PRETTY
STEADY IN THE 30S BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE RANGING FROM THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND EAST. WE MAY STILL DROP INTO THE
20S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA...BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST WITH
DEWPOINTS STEADY IN THE MID 30S WILL LIKELY NOT DROP AS LOW AS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...UTILIZED A PERSISTENCE FORECAST...BUT
ALLOWED FOR SOME WARMING AS 85H TEMPERATURES DO WARM A LITTLE AND
OUR MID LEVEL MOISTURE GETS WRUNG OUT WITH THE BUILDING UPPER HIGH
TO OUR NORTH. ONE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE DEFAULT SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE WAS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTH. OUR
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR WAS NOT AVAILABLE THIS MORNING BUT THE
OPERATIONAL HRRR LOOKED REASONABLE WITH 15-20 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
TIER COUNTIES AND 20 TO 25 PERCENT RH FOR THE NEXT TIER. WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AND UTILIZING SOME OF
THE HIGHER GUIDANCE WINDS WE ARE STILL NOT MORE THAN 10 TO 15 MPH
SUSTAINED TODAY. THUS ANY FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
WILL PASS THIS ALONG TO THE NEXT SHIFT TO MONITOR BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS.

ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT WITH MORE CLEARING SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT WITH LOW IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AGAIN UTILIZED
PERSISTENCE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH OUR BLOCKING PATTERN AND
GENERALLY RAISED TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION WAS THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD
BEGIN TO RISE A LITTLE QUICKER AS WE LOSE ANY REMAINING SNOW.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH ADVERTISE A WESTERN
U.S. RIDGE WITH TROUGHING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WE WILL BE RIGHT ON THE TRANSITION OF THE
RIDGE/TROUGH REGIME AND AFTER A MILD BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK WE
COULD SEE A LITTLE SETBACK IN TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN CWA DUE TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
DROPPING INTO THE DEVELOPING EAST COAST TROUGH. WE ARE TALKING
ONLY A FEW DEGREES HERE AND THE FRONT WOULD BE DRY. REALLY THE
ONLY HINT OF ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEK IS WITH A LEADING
WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF
SHOWS THIS WAVE DROPPING FARTHER WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND
COULD RESULT IN A SHOWER OR TWO. THE GFS TAKES IT MUCH FARTHER
EAST AND IS DRY ACROSS THE CWA. RIGHT NOW A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION
DOES NOT CREATE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. THEN LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND MODELS
WANT TO BRING A LITTLE QPF INTO THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS DOES NOT COME TO FRUITION GIVEN THE
DRY ATMOSPHERE AND RIDGING STILL HOLDING ON OVER EASTERN MONTANA
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

LARGE AND PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM MANITOBA
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING. VFR
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities