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000
FXUS63 KFGF 051131
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
631 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL AGAIN BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...STRENGTH OF STORMS WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF UPPER WAVE AND CLOUD COVER. THE SHORTWAVE OF THE DAY IS
CURRENTLY (08Z) LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WILL PROPAGATE
TO THE NE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECTED TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING FORCING INTO THE SOUTHERN FA AFTER 18Z...AND INTO THE
NORTHERN FA AFTER 21Z. THIS TIMING IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER COMPARED
WITH FRIDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW MORE TIME FOR HEATING. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL NOT BE MUCH STRONGER TODAY...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
DEPEND ON ENHANCED INSTABILITY DUE TO HEATING. AS OF 08Z...LOW
CLOUDS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY ARE ADVANCING TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. ANTICIPATE THIS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ADVANCEMENT OF
CLOUDS TO STALL AROUND MID-MORNING FROM AROUND BEMIDJI TO WAHPETON
(FOLLOWING THE HRRR). ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CLEARING ACROSS THE MINNESOTA COUNTIES. MOST CAMS INDICATE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NW MN (WHERE FORCING WILL ARRIVE LAST...PROVIDING MORE TIME
FOR HEATING AND GREATER INSTABILITY). WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE AND LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. WILL MENTION RW+ ACROSS NW MN WHERE STRONGER
STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY. CONSIDERING THE MANY VARIABLES
INVOLVED...WILL NOT YET MENTION T+.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE. TIMING WILL DETERMINE SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING BEST CHANCES EAST OF THE
REGION (ALTHOUGH SPC DID PLACE THE FAR EASTERN FA IN A SLIGHT
RISK).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
AND W CNTRL MN. LWT THEN MOVES ACROSS MN THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH
NW FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD KEEP REGION DRY FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL WITH MAX TEMPS
THU AND FRI STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

LIFR CIGS AFFECTING MOST AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING (EXCEPT FARGO).
THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY...OR MOVE NORTH AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. USED HRRR GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING OF CIGS. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG



000
FXUS63 KFGF 051131
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
631 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL AGAIN BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...STRENGTH OF STORMS WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF UPPER WAVE AND CLOUD COVER. THE SHORTWAVE OF THE DAY IS
CURRENTLY (08Z) LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WILL PROPAGATE
TO THE NE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECTED TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING FORCING INTO THE SOUTHERN FA AFTER 18Z...AND INTO THE
NORTHERN FA AFTER 21Z. THIS TIMING IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER COMPARED
WITH FRIDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW MORE TIME FOR HEATING. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL NOT BE MUCH STRONGER TODAY...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
DEPEND ON ENHANCED INSTABILITY DUE TO HEATING. AS OF 08Z...LOW
CLOUDS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY ARE ADVANCING TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. ANTICIPATE THIS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ADVANCEMENT OF
CLOUDS TO STALL AROUND MID-MORNING FROM AROUND BEMIDJI TO WAHPETON
(FOLLOWING THE HRRR). ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CLEARING ACROSS THE MINNESOTA COUNTIES. MOST CAMS INDICATE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NW MN (WHERE FORCING WILL ARRIVE LAST...PROVIDING MORE TIME
FOR HEATING AND GREATER INSTABILITY). WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE AND LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. WILL MENTION RW+ ACROSS NW MN WHERE STRONGER
STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY. CONSIDERING THE MANY VARIABLES
INVOLVED...WILL NOT YET MENTION T+.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE. TIMING WILL DETERMINE SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING BEST CHANCES EAST OF THE
REGION (ALTHOUGH SPC DID PLACE THE FAR EASTERN FA IN A SLIGHT
RISK).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
AND W CNTRL MN. LWT THEN MOVES ACROSS MN THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH
NW FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD KEEP REGION DRY FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL WITH MAX TEMPS
THU AND FRI STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

LIFR CIGS AFFECTING MOST AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING (EXCEPT FARGO).
THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY...OR MOVE NORTH AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. USED HRRR GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING OF CIGS. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG



000
FXUS63 KFGF 051131
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
631 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL AGAIN BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...STRENGTH OF STORMS WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF UPPER WAVE AND CLOUD COVER. THE SHORTWAVE OF THE DAY IS
CURRENTLY (08Z) LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WILL PROPAGATE
TO THE NE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECTED TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING FORCING INTO THE SOUTHERN FA AFTER 18Z...AND INTO THE
NORTHERN FA AFTER 21Z. THIS TIMING IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER COMPARED
WITH FRIDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW MORE TIME FOR HEATING. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL NOT BE MUCH STRONGER TODAY...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
DEPEND ON ENHANCED INSTABILITY DUE TO HEATING. AS OF 08Z...LOW
CLOUDS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY ARE ADVANCING TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. ANTICIPATE THIS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ADVANCEMENT OF
CLOUDS TO STALL AROUND MID-MORNING FROM AROUND BEMIDJI TO WAHPETON
(FOLLOWING THE HRRR). ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CLEARING ACROSS THE MINNESOTA COUNTIES. MOST CAMS INDICATE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NW MN (WHERE FORCING WILL ARRIVE LAST...PROVIDING MORE TIME
FOR HEATING AND GREATER INSTABILITY). WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE AND LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. WILL MENTION RW+ ACROSS NW MN WHERE STRONGER
STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY. CONSIDERING THE MANY VARIABLES
INVOLVED...WILL NOT YET MENTION T+.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE. TIMING WILL DETERMINE SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING BEST CHANCES EAST OF THE
REGION (ALTHOUGH SPC DID PLACE THE FAR EASTERN FA IN A SLIGHT
RISK).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
AND W CNTRL MN. LWT THEN MOVES ACROSS MN THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH
NW FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD KEEP REGION DRY FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL WITH MAX TEMPS
THU AND FRI STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

LIFR CIGS AFFECTING MOST AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING (EXCEPT FARGO).
THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY...OR MOVE NORTH AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. USED HRRR GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING OF CIGS. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 051131
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
631 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL AGAIN BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...STRENGTH OF STORMS WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF UPPER WAVE AND CLOUD COVER. THE SHORTWAVE OF THE DAY IS
CURRENTLY (08Z) LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WILL PROPAGATE
TO THE NE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECTED TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING FORCING INTO THE SOUTHERN FA AFTER 18Z...AND INTO THE
NORTHERN FA AFTER 21Z. THIS TIMING IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER COMPARED
WITH FRIDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW MORE TIME FOR HEATING. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL NOT BE MUCH STRONGER TODAY...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
DEPEND ON ENHANCED INSTABILITY DUE TO HEATING. AS OF 08Z...LOW
CLOUDS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY ARE ADVANCING TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. ANTICIPATE THIS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ADVANCEMENT OF
CLOUDS TO STALL AROUND MID-MORNING FROM AROUND BEMIDJI TO WAHPETON
(FOLLOWING THE HRRR). ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CLEARING ACROSS THE MINNESOTA COUNTIES. MOST CAMS INDICATE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NW MN (WHERE FORCING WILL ARRIVE LAST...PROVIDING MORE TIME
FOR HEATING AND GREATER INSTABILITY). WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE AND LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. WILL MENTION RW+ ACROSS NW MN WHERE STRONGER
STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY. CONSIDERING THE MANY VARIABLES
INVOLVED...WILL NOT YET MENTION T+.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE. TIMING WILL DETERMINE SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING BEST CHANCES EAST OF THE
REGION (ALTHOUGH SPC DID PLACE THE FAR EASTERN FA IN A SLIGHT
RISK).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
AND W CNTRL MN. LWT THEN MOVES ACROSS MN THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH
NW FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD KEEP REGION DRY FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL WITH MAX TEMPS
THU AND FRI STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

LIFR CIGS AFFECTING MOST AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING (EXCEPT FARGO).
THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY...OR MOVE NORTH AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. USED HRRR GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING OF CIGS. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KBIS 051111
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
611 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TOWARDS CURRENT
TRENDS WHICH SEEM TO BE PICKED UP RATHER WELL BY THE HRRR MODEL.
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH TOWARDS
CANADA...BUT BEHIND IT A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING
SOUTHWARD WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND FILL IN A BIT. HAVE ALSO BUMPED
UP FOG COVERAGE A BIT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE VISIBILITIES HAVE DIPPED DOWN TO AROUND
1/4 MILE AT TIMES. THE COVERAGE OF THIS IS NOT WIDESPREAD SO WILL
REFRAIN FROM ISSUING AN ADVISORY...BUT WILL COVER WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

CURRENTLY...STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA RESPONSIBLE FOR ROBUST CONVECTION NOW MOVING
INTO MY NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
MOVE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER BY 12Z. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET AND NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ONCE AGAIN A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH FORECAST QPF FOR
TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE A DECENT ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO
KEEP HIGH POPS CENTRAL INTO EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER STRONG EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED AS THE NOSE OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET PUSHES NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. FOCUSED HIGHER
POPS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. STRONG
MOISTURE FEED CONTINUES FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN...SO HEAVY
RAINERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY. IN ADDITION...A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE 1-1.5K MUCAPE AND AROUND 35KTS
OF WIND SHEAR.

THE UPPER JET WILL FORCE THE STATIONARY SFC LOW FINALLY OFF TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AFTER 00Z.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EAST WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TONIGHT NEAR THE TRACK OF THE BASE OF
THE WEST COAST TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
DRY WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
BREEZY BUT PLEASANT FOR SUNDAY AS SFC DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES FALL
FROM THE 60S AND LOW 70S WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS BROAD AREA OF
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. ON
MONDAY...AREA WILL BE UNDER COOL BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS MAY
LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING...AND POSSIBLY A WEAK THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. QUIET WEATHER RETURNS IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH WEAK RIDGE
PASSING OVER...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL. THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

IFR-VLIFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
EARLY THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AM
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING/REDEVELOPING CENTRAL INTO EAST LATER
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 051111
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
611 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TOWARDS CURRENT
TRENDS WHICH SEEM TO BE PICKED UP RATHER WELL BY THE HRRR MODEL.
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH TOWARDS
CANADA...BUT BEHIND IT A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING
SOUTHWARD WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND FILL IN A BIT. HAVE ALSO BUMPED
UP FOG COVERAGE A BIT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE VISIBILITIES HAVE DIPPED DOWN TO AROUND
1/4 MILE AT TIMES. THE COVERAGE OF THIS IS NOT WIDESPREAD SO WILL
REFRAIN FROM ISSUING AN ADVISORY...BUT WILL COVER WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

CURRENTLY...STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA RESPONSIBLE FOR ROBUST CONVECTION NOW MOVING
INTO MY NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
MOVE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER BY 12Z. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET AND NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ONCE AGAIN A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH FORECAST QPF FOR
TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE A DECENT ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO
KEEP HIGH POPS CENTRAL INTO EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER STRONG EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED AS THE NOSE OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET PUSHES NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. FOCUSED HIGHER
POPS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. STRONG
MOISTURE FEED CONTINUES FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN...SO HEAVY
RAINERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY. IN ADDITION...A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE 1-1.5K MUCAPE AND AROUND 35KTS
OF WIND SHEAR.

THE UPPER JET WILL FORCE THE STATIONARY SFC LOW FINALLY OFF TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AFTER 00Z.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EAST WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TONIGHT NEAR THE TRACK OF THE BASE OF
THE WEST COAST TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
DRY WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
BREEZY BUT PLEASANT FOR SUNDAY AS SFC DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES FALL
FROM THE 60S AND LOW 70S WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS BROAD AREA OF
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. ON
MONDAY...AREA WILL BE UNDER COOL BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS MAY
LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING...AND POSSIBLY A WEAK THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. QUIET WEATHER RETURNS IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH WEAK RIDGE
PASSING OVER...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL. THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

IFR-VLIFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
EARLY THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AM
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING/REDEVELOPING CENTRAL INTO EAST LATER
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 050922
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
422 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

CURRENTLY...STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA RESPONSIBLE FOR ROBUST CONVECTION NOW MOVING
INTO MY NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
MOVE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER BY 12Z. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET AND NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ONCE AGAIN A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH FORECAST QPF FOR
TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE A DECENT ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO
KEEP HIGH POPS CENTRAL INTO EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER STRONG EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED AS THE NOSE OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET PUSHES NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. FOCUSED HIGHER
POPS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. STRONG
MOISTURE FEED CONTINUES FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN...SO HEAVY
RAINERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY. IN ADDITION...A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE 1-1.5K MUCAPE AND AROUND 35KTS
OF WIND SHEAR.

THE UPPER JET WILL FORCE THE STATIONARY SFC LOW FINALLY OFF TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AFTER 00Z.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EAST WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TONIGHT NEAR THE TRACK OF THE BASE OF
THE WEST COAST TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
DRY WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
BREEZY BUT PLEASANT FOR SUNDAY AS SFC DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES FALL
FROM THE 60S AND LOW 70S WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS BROAD AREA OF
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. ON
MONDAY...AREA WILL BE UNDER COOL BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS MAY
LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING...AND POSSIBLY A WEAK THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. QUIET WEATHER RETURNS IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH WEAK RIDGE
PASSING OVER...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL. THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

IFR-VLIFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
EARLY THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AM
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING/REDEVELOPING CENTRAL INTO EAST LATER
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 050922
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
422 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

CURRENTLY...STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA RESPONSIBLE FOR ROBUST CONVECTION NOW MOVING
INTO MY NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
MOVE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER BY 12Z. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET AND NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ONCE AGAIN A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH FORECAST QPF FOR
TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE A DECENT ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO
KEEP HIGH POPS CENTRAL INTO EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER STRONG EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED AS THE NOSE OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET PUSHES NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. FOCUSED HIGHER
POPS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. STRONG
MOISTURE FEED CONTINUES FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN...SO HEAVY
RAINERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY. IN ADDITION...A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE 1-1.5K MUCAPE AND AROUND 35KTS
OF WIND SHEAR.

THE UPPER JET WILL FORCE THE STATIONARY SFC LOW FINALLY OFF TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AFTER 00Z.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EAST WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TONIGHT NEAR THE TRACK OF THE BASE OF
THE WEST COAST TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
DRY WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
BREEZY BUT PLEASANT FOR SUNDAY AS SFC DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES FALL
FROM THE 60S AND LOW 70S WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS BROAD AREA OF
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. ON
MONDAY...AREA WILL BE UNDER COOL BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS MAY
LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING...AND POSSIBLY A WEAK THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. QUIET WEATHER RETURNS IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH WEAK RIDGE
PASSING OVER...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL. THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

IFR-VLIFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
EARLY THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AM
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING/REDEVELOPING CENTRAL INTO EAST LATER
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 050922
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
422 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

CURRENTLY...STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA RESPONSIBLE FOR ROBUST CONVECTION NOW MOVING
INTO MY NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
MOVE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER BY 12Z. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET AND NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ONCE AGAIN A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH FORECAST QPF FOR
TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE A DECENT ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO
KEEP HIGH POPS CENTRAL INTO EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER STRONG EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED AS THE NOSE OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET PUSHES NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. FOCUSED HIGHER
POPS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. STRONG
MOISTURE FEED CONTINUES FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN...SO HEAVY
RAINERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY. IN ADDITION...A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE 1-1.5K MUCAPE AND AROUND 35KTS
OF WIND SHEAR.

THE UPPER JET WILL FORCE THE STATIONARY SFC LOW FINALLY OFF TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AFTER 00Z.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EAST WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TONIGHT NEAR THE TRACK OF THE BASE OF
THE WEST COAST TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
DRY WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
BREEZY BUT PLEASANT FOR SUNDAY AS SFC DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES FALL
FROM THE 60S AND LOW 70S WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS BROAD AREA OF
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. ON
MONDAY...AREA WILL BE UNDER COOL BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS MAY
LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING...AND POSSIBLY A WEAK THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. QUIET WEATHER RETURNS IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH WEAK RIDGE
PASSING OVER...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL. THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

IFR-VLIFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
EARLY THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AM
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING/REDEVELOPING CENTRAL INTO EAST LATER
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 050922
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
422 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

CURRENTLY...STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA RESPONSIBLE FOR ROBUST CONVECTION NOW MOVING
INTO MY NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
MOVE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER BY 12Z. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET AND NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ONCE AGAIN A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH FORECAST QPF FOR
TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE A DECENT ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO
KEEP HIGH POPS CENTRAL INTO EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER STRONG EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED AS THE NOSE OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET PUSHES NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. FOCUSED HIGHER
POPS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. STRONG
MOISTURE FEED CONTINUES FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN...SO HEAVY
RAINERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY. IN ADDITION...A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE 1-1.5K MUCAPE AND AROUND 35KTS
OF WIND SHEAR.

THE UPPER JET WILL FORCE THE STATIONARY SFC LOW FINALLY OFF TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AFTER 00Z.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EAST WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TONIGHT NEAR THE TRACK OF THE BASE OF
THE WEST COAST TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
DRY WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
BREEZY BUT PLEASANT FOR SUNDAY AS SFC DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES FALL
FROM THE 60S AND LOW 70S WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS BROAD AREA OF
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. ON
MONDAY...AREA WILL BE UNDER COOL BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS MAY
LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING...AND POSSIBLY A WEAK THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. QUIET WEATHER RETURNS IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH WEAK RIDGE
PASSING OVER...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL. THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

IFR-VLIFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
EARLY THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AM
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING/REDEVELOPING CENTRAL INTO EAST LATER
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH




000
FXUS63 KFGF 050834
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
334 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL AGAIN BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...STRENGTH OF STORMS WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF UPPER WAVE AND CLOUD COVER. THE SHORTWAVE OF THE DAY IS
CURRENTLY (08Z) LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WILL PROPAGATE
TO THE NE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECTED TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING FORCING INTO THE SOUTHERN FA AFTER 18Z...AND INTO THE
NORTHERN FA AFTER 21Z. THIS TIMING IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER COMPARED
WITH FRIDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW MORE TIME FOR HEATING. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL NOT BE MUCH STRONGER TODAY...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
DEPEND ON ENHANCED INSTABILITY DUE TO HEATING. AS OF 08Z...LOW
CLOUDS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY ARE ADVANCING TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. ANTICIPATE THIS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ADVANCEMENT OF
CLOUDS TO STALL AROUND MID-MORNING FROM AROUND BEMIDJI TO WAHPETON
(FOLLOWING THE HRRR). ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CLEARING ACROSS THE MINNESOTA COUNTIES. MOST CAMS INDICATE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NW MN (WHERE FORCING WILL ARRIVE LAST...PROVIDING MORE TIME
FOR HEATING AND GREATER INSTABILITY). WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE AND LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. WILL MENTION RW+ ACROSS NW MN WHERE STRONGER
STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY. CONSIDERING THE MANY VARIABLES
INVOLVED...WILL NOT YET MENTION T+.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE. TIMING WILL DETERMINE SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING BEST CHANCES EAST OF THE
REGION (ALTHOUGH SPC DID PLACE THE FAR EASTERN FA IN A SLIGHT
RISK).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
AND W CNTRL MN. LWT THEN MOVES ACROSS MN THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH
NW FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD KEEP REGION DRY FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL WITH MAX TEMPS
THU AND FRI STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

BY MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE BAND OF IFR STRATUS FROM BDE-TVF AND
GFK SOUTHEASTWARD WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY BURN OFF IN THE AM. COULD
STILL SEE SOME OVERNIGHT TSRA OVER THE FAR EASTERN FA. NEXT T
POTENTIAL LOOKS LIKE LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 050834
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
334 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL AGAIN BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...STRENGTH OF STORMS WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF UPPER WAVE AND CLOUD COVER. THE SHORTWAVE OF THE DAY IS
CURRENTLY (08Z) LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WILL PROPAGATE
TO THE NE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECTED TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING FORCING INTO THE SOUTHERN FA AFTER 18Z...AND INTO THE
NORTHERN FA AFTER 21Z. THIS TIMING IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER COMPARED
WITH FRIDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW MORE TIME FOR HEATING. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL NOT BE MUCH STRONGER TODAY...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
DEPEND ON ENHANCED INSTABILITY DUE TO HEATING. AS OF 08Z...LOW
CLOUDS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY ARE ADVANCING TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. ANTICIPATE THIS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ADVANCEMENT OF
CLOUDS TO STALL AROUND MID-MORNING FROM AROUND BEMIDJI TO WAHPETON
(FOLLOWING THE HRRR). ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CLEARING ACROSS THE MINNESOTA COUNTIES. MOST CAMS INDICATE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NW MN (WHERE FORCING WILL ARRIVE LAST...PROVIDING MORE TIME
FOR HEATING AND GREATER INSTABILITY). WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE AND LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. WILL MENTION RW+ ACROSS NW MN WHERE STRONGER
STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY. CONSIDERING THE MANY VARIABLES
INVOLVED...WILL NOT YET MENTION T+.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE. TIMING WILL DETERMINE SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING BEST CHANCES EAST OF THE
REGION (ALTHOUGH SPC DID PLACE THE FAR EASTERN FA IN A SLIGHT
RISK).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
AND W CNTRL MN. LWT THEN MOVES ACROSS MN THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH
NW FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD KEEP REGION DRY FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL WITH MAX TEMPS
THU AND FRI STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

BY MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE BAND OF IFR STRATUS FROM BDE-TVF AND
GFK SOUTHEASTWARD WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY BURN OFF IN THE AM. COULD
STILL SEE SOME OVERNIGHT TSRA OVER THE FAR EASTERN FA. NEXT T
POTENTIAL LOOKS LIKE LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 050834
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
334 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL AGAIN BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...STRENGTH OF STORMS WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF UPPER WAVE AND CLOUD COVER. THE SHORTWAVE OF THE DAY IS
CURRENTLY (08Z) LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WILL PROPAGATE
TO THE NE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECTED TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING FORCING INTO THE SOUTHERN FA AFTER 18Z...AND INTO THE
NORTHERN FA AFTER 21Z. THIS TIMING IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER COMPARED
WITH FRIDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW MORE TIME FOR HEATING. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL NOT BE MUCH STRONGER TODAY...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
DEPEND ON ENHANCED INSTABILITY DUE TO HEATING. AS OF 08Z...LOW
CLOUDS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY ARE ADVANCING TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. ANTICIPATE THIS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ADVANCEMENT OF
CLOUDS TO STALL AROUND MID-MORNING FROM AROUND BEMIDJI TO WAHPETON
(FOLLOWING THE HRRR). ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CLEARING ACROSS THE MINNESOTA COUNTIES. MOST CAMS INDICATE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NW MN (WHERE FORCING WILL ARRIVE LAST...PROVIDING MORE TIME
FOR HEATING AND GREATER INSTABILITY). WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE AND LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. WILL MENTION RW+ ACROSS NW MN WHERE STRONGER
STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY. CONSIDERING THE MANY VARIABLES
INVOLVED...WILL NOT YET MENTION T+.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE. TIMING WILL DETERMINE SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING BEST CHANCES EAST OF THE
REGION (ALTHOUGH SPC DID PLACE THE FAR EASTERN FA IN A SLIGHT
RISK).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
AND W CNTRL MN. LWT THEN MOVES ACROSS MN THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH
NW FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD KEEP REGION DRY FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL WITH MAX TEMPS
THU AND FRI STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

BY MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE BAND OF IFR STRATUS FROM BDE-TVF AND
GFK SOUTHEASTWARD WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY BURN OFF IN THE AM. COULD
STILL SEE SOME OVERNIGHT TSRA OVER THE FAR EASTERN FA. NEXT T
POTENTIAL LOOKS LIKE LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 050820
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
320 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL AGAIN BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...STRENGTH OF STORMS WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF UPPER WAVE AND CLOUD COVER. THE SHORTWAVE OF THE DAY IS
CURRENTLY (08Z) LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WILL PROPAGATE
TO THE NE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECTED TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING FORCING INTO THE SOUTHERN FA AFTER 18Z...AND INTO THE
NORTHERN FA AFTER 21Z. THIS TIMING IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER COMPARED
WITH FRIDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW MORE TIME FOR HEATING. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL NOT BE MUCH STRONGER TODAY...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
DEPEND ON ENHANCED INSTABILITY DUE TO HEATING. AS OF 08Z...LOW
CLOUDS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY ARE ADVANCING TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. ANTICIPATE THIS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ADVANCEMENT OF
CLOUDS TO STALL AROUND MID-MORNING FROM AROUND BEMIDJI TO WAHPETON
(FOLLOWING THE HRRR). ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CLEARING ACROSS THE MINNESOTA COUNTIES. MOST CAMS INDICATE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NW MN (WHERE FORCING WILL ARRIVE LAST...PROVIDING MORE TIME
FOR HEATING AND GREATER INSTABILITY). WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE AND LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. CONSIDERING THE MANY VARIABLES
INVOLVED...WILL NOT YET MENTION T+ OR RW+.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE. TIMING WILL DETERMINE SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING BEST CHANCES EAST OF THE
REGION (ALTHOUGH SPC DID PLACE THE FAR EASTERN FA IN A SLIGHT
RISK).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
AND W CNTRL MN. LWT THEN MOVES ACROSS MN THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH
NW FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD KEEP REGION DRY FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL WITH MAX TEMPS
THU AND FRI STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

BY MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE BAND OF IFR STRATUS FROM BDE-TVF AND
GFK SOUTHEASTWARD WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY BURN OFF IN THE AM. COULD
STILL SEE SOME OVERNIGHT TSRA OVER THE FAR EASTERN FA. NEXT T
POTENTIAL LOOKS LIKE LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 050820
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
320 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL AGAIN BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...STRENGTH OF STORMS WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF UPPER WAVE AND CLOUD COVER. THE SHORTWAVE OF THE DAY IS
CURRENTLY (08Z) LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WILL PROPAGATE
TO THE NE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECTED TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING FORCING INTO THE SOUTHERN FA AFTER 18Z...AND INTO THE
NORTHERN FA AFTER 21Z. THIS TIMING IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER COMPARED
WITH FRIDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW MORE TIME FOR HEATING. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL NOT BE MUCH STRONGER TODAY...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
DEPEND ON ENHANCED INSTABILITY DUE TO HEATING. AS OF 08Z...LOW
CLOUDS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY ARE ADVANCING TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. ANTICIPATE THIS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ADVANCEMENT OF
CLOUDS TO STALL AROUND MID-MORNING FROM AROUND BEMIDJI TO WAHPETON
(FOLLOWING THE HRRR). ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CLEARING ACROSS THE MINNESOTA COUNTIES. MOST CAMS INDICATE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NW MN (WHERE FORCING WILL ARRIVE LAST...PROVIDING MORE TIME
FOR HEATING AND GREATER INSTABILITY). WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE AND LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. CONSIDERING THE MANY VARIABLES
INVOLVED...WILL NOT YET MENTION T+ OR RW+.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE. TIMING WILL DETERMINE SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING BEST CHANCES EAST OF THE
REGION (ALTHOUGH SPC DID PLACE THE FAR EASTERN FA IN A SLIGHT
RISK).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
AND W CNTRL MN. LWT THEN MOVES ACROSS MN THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH
NW FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD KEEP REGION DRY FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL WITH MAX TEMPS
THU AND FRI STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

BY MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE BAND OF IFR STRATUS FROM BDE-TVF AND
GFK SOUTHEASTWARD WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY BURN OFF IN THE AM. COULD
STILL SEE SOME OVERNIGHT TSRA OVER THE FAR EASTERN FA. NEXT T
POTENTIAL LOOKS LIKE LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KBIS 050631
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
131 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

STRONG S/WV IMPULSE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH WITH THE WAVE
ACROSS EASTERN MT AND SOUTHWESTERN ND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
NORTH. HIGH RES MODELS THEN BRING ANOTHER WAVE NORTH LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. INCREASED POPS AND ALSO CLOUDY COVER WITH
LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS BUILDING SOUTHWARD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEAST.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

NEXT IMPULSE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING.
THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING NORTHEAST AROUND 30-35 MPH AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THIS AREA LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AND
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
UPDATED POP/WX GRIDS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE TIME-LAGGED HRRR AND
PERSISTENCE THROUGH 14 UTC. ALSO EXPANDED OVERCAST CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
EXPANDED IT FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

EVEN IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY RECENTLY AS TWO
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDED. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF BISMARCK UP INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. CURRENT
INDICATIONS SUGGEST MORE LIKE AROUND MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER. THUS
CUT BACK ON POPS IN THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR
ANALYSIS INDICATES SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY AROUND GLASGOW AND
FARTHER WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 520 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS/SKY COVER AND TO FRESHEN LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT EXITED THE FAR EASTERN
CWA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER FAR EASTERN STUTSMAN INTO
LAMOURE/DICKEY COUNTIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THIS
EVENING. CHANCES RETURN OUT WEST AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE NEXT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND IMPACT WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH THIS FEATURE. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IS IN THE DAY TWO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK...THIS HAS BEEN THE DRIEST PORTION OF THE STATE THIS
SUMMER AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MORE SCATTERED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN GOOD
AGREEMENT...UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT PROPAGATING
INTO SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD MARK THE
END OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHORT TERM BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE AREA. THEREAFTER...A MEAN...LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FAVORS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THESE COOLER
TEMPERATES...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FROST POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

IFR-VLIFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
EARLY THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AM
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
THEN POSSIBLE CENTRAL INTO EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 050631
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
131 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

STRONG S/WV IMPULSE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH WITH THE WAVE
ACROSS EASTERN MT AND SOUTHWESTERN ND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
NORTH. HIGH RES MODELS THEN BRING ANOTHER WAVE NORTH LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. INCREASED POPS AND ALSO CLOUDY COVER WITH
LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS BUILDING SOUTHWARD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEAST.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

NEXT IMPULSE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING.
THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING NORTHEAST AROUND 30-35 MPH AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THIS AREA LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AND
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
UPDATED POP/WX GRIDS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE TIME-LAGGED HRRR AND
PERSISTENCE THROUGH 14 UTC. ALSO EXPANDED OVERCAST CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
EXPANDED IT FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

EVEN IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY RECENTLY AS TWO
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDED. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF BISMARCK UP INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. CURRENT
INDICATIONS SUGGEST MORE LIKE AROUND MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER. THUS
CUT BACK ON POPS IN THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR
ANALYSIS INDICATES SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY AROUND GLASGOW AND
FARTHER WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 520 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS/SKY COVER AND TO FRESHEN LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT EXITED THE FAR EASTERN
CWA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER FAR EASTERN STUTSMAN INTO
LAMOURE/DICKEY COUNTIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THIS
EVENING. CHANCES RETURN OUT WEST AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE NEXT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND IMPACT WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH THIS FEATURE. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IS IN THE DAY TWO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK...THIS HAS BEEN THE DRIEST PORTION OF THE STATE THIS
SUMMER AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MORE SCATTERED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN GOOD
AGREEMENT...UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT PROPAGATING
INTO SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD MARK THE
END OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHORT TERM BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE AREA. THEREAFTER...A MEAN...LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FAVORS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THESE COOLER
TEMPERATES...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FROST POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

IFR-VLIFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
EARLY THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AM
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
THEN POSSIBLE CENTRAL INTO EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 050631
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
131 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

STRONG S/WV IMPULSE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH WITH THE WAVE
ACROSS EASTERN MT AND SOUTHWESTERN ND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
NORTH. HIGH RES MODELS THEN BRING ANOTHER WAVE NORTH LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. INCREASED POPS AND ALSO CLOUDY COVER WITH
LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS BUILDING SOUTHWARD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEAST.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

NEXT IMPULSE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING.
THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING NORTHEAST AROUND 30-35 MPH AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THIS AREA LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AND
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
UPDATED POP/WX GRIDS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE TIME-LAGGED HRRR AND
PERSISTENCE THROUGH 14 UTC. ALSO EXPANDED OVERCAST CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
EXPANDED IT FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

EVEN IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY RECENTLY AS TWO
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDED. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF BISMARCK UP INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. CURRENT
INDICATIONS SUGGEST MORE LIKE AROUND MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER. THUS
CUT BACK ON POPS IN THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR
ANALYSIS INDICATES SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY AROUND GLASGOW AND
FARTHER WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 520 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS/SKY COVER AND TO FRESHEN LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT EXITED THE FAR EASTERN
CWA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER FAR EASTERN STUTSMAN INTO
LAMOURE/DICKEY COUNTIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THIS
EVENING. CHANCES RETURN OUT WEST AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE NEXT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND IMPACT WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH THIS FEATURE. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IS IN THE DAY TWO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK...THIS HAS BEEN THE DRIEST PORTION OF THE STATE THIS
SUMMER AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MORE SCATTERED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN GOOD
AGREEMENT...UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT PROPAGATING
INTO SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD MARK THE
END OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHORT TERM BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE AREA. THEREAFTER...A MEAN...LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FAVORS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THESE COOLER
TEMPERATES...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FROST POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

IFR-VLIFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
EARLY THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AM
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
THEN POSSIBLE CENTRAL INTO EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 050631
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
131 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

STRONG S/WV IMPULSE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH WITH THE WAVE
ACROSS EASTERN MT AND SOUTHWESTERN ND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
NORTH. HIGH RES MODELS THEN BRING ANOTHER WAVE NORTH LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. INCREASED POPS AND ALSO CLOUDY COVER WITH
LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS BUILDING SOUTHWARD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEAST.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

NEXT IMPULSE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING.
THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING NORTHEAST AROUND 30-35 MPH AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THIS AREA LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AND
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
UPDATED POP/WX GRIDS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE TIME-LAGGED HRRR AND
PERSISTENCE THROUGH 14 UTC. ALSO EXPANDED OVERCAST CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
EXPANDED IT FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

EVEN IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY RECENTLY AS TWO
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDED. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF BISMARCK UP INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. CURRENT
INDICATIONS SUGGEST MORE LIKE AROUND MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER. THUS
CUT BACK ON POPS IN THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR
ANALYSIS INDICATES SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY AROUND GLASGOW AND
FARTHER WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 520 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS/SKY COVER AND TO FRESHEN LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT EXITED THE FAR EASTERN
CWA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER FAR EASTERN STUTSMAN INTO
LAMOURE/DICKEY COUNTIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THIS
EVENING. CHANCES RETURN OUT WEST AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE NEXT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND IMPACT WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH THIS FEATURE. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IS IN THE DAY TWO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK...THIS HAS BEEN THE DRIEST PORTION OF THE STATE THIS
SUMMER AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MORE SCATTERED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN GOOD
AGREEMENT...UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT PROPAGATING
INTO SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD MARK THE
END OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHORT TERM BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE AREA. THEREAFTER...A MEAN...LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FAVORS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THESE COOLER
TEMPERATES...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FROST POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

IFR-VLIFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
EARLY THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AM
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
THEN POSSIBLE CENTRAL INTO EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 050631
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
131 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

STRONG S/WV IMPULSE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH WITH THE WAVE
ACROSS EASTERN MT AND SOUTHWESTERN ND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
NORTH. HIGH RES MODELS THEN BRING ANOTHER WAVE NORTH LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. INCREASED POPS AND ALSO CLOUDY COVER WITH
LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS BUILDING SOUTHWARD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEAST.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

NEXT IMPULSE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING.
THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING NORTHEAST AROUND 30-35 MPH AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THIS AREA LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AND
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
UPDATED POP/WX GRIDS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE TIME-LAGGED HRRR AND
PERSISTENCE THROUGH 14 UTC. ALSO EXPANDED OVERCAST CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
EXPANDED IT FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

EVEN IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY RECENTLY AS TWO
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDED. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF BISMARCK UP INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. CURRENT
INDICATIONS SUGGEST MORE LIKE AROUND MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER. THUS
CUT BACK ON POPS IN THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR
ANALYSIS INDICATES SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY AROUND GLASGOW AND
FARTHER WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 520 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS/SKY COVER AND TO FRESHEN LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT EXITED THE FAR EASTERN
CWA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER FAR EASTERN STUTSMAN INTO
LAMOURE/DICKEY COUNTIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THIS
EVENING. CHANCES RETURN OUT WEST AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE NEXT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND IMPACT WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH THIS FEATURE. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IS IN THE DAY TWO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK...THIS HAS BEEN THE DRIEST PORTION OF THE STATE THIS
SUMMER AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MORE SCATTERED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN GOOD
AGREEMENT...UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT PROPAGATING
INTO SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD MARK THE
END OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHORT TERM BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE AREA. THEREAFTER...A MEAN...LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FAVORS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THESE COOLER
TEMPERATES...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FROST POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

IFR-VLIFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
EARLY THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AM
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
THEN POSSIBLE CENTRAL INTO EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 050631
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
131 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

STRONG S/WV IMPULSE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH WITH THE WAVE
ACROSS EASTERN MT AND SOUTHWESTERN ND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
NORTH. HIGH RES MODELS THEN BRING ANOTHER WAVE NORTH LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. INCREASED POPS AND ALSO CLOUDY COVER WITH
LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS BUILDING SOUTHWARD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEAST.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

NEXT IMPULSE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING.
THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING NORTHEAST AROUND 30-35 MPH AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THIS AREA LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AND
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
UPDATED POP/WX GRIDS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE TIME-LAGGED HRRR AND
PERSISTENCE THROUGH 14 UTC. ALSO EXPANDED OVERCAST CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
EXPANDED IT FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

EVEN IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY RECENTLY AS TWO
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDED. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF BISMARCK UP INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. CURRENT
INDICATIONS SUGGEST MORE LIKE AROUND MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER. THUS
CUT BACK ON POPS IN THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR
ANALYSIS INDICATES SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY AROUND GLASGOW AND
FARTHER WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 520 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS/SKY COVER AND TO FRESHEN LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT EXITED THE FAR EASTERN
CWA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER FAR EASTERN STUTSMAN INTO
LAMOURE/DICKEY COUNTIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THIS
EVENING. CHANCES RETURN OUT WEST AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE NEXT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND IMPACT WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH THIS FEATURE. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IS IN THE DAY TWO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK...THIS HAS BEEN THE DRIEST PORTION OF THE STATE THIS
SUMMER AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MORE SCATTERED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN GOOD
AGREEMENT...UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT PROPAGATING
INTO SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD MARK THE
END OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHORT TERM BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE AREA. THEREAFTER...A MEAN...LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FAVORS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THESE COOLER
TEMPERATES...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FROST POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

IFR-VLIFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
EARLY THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AM
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
THEN POSSIBLE CENTRAL INTO EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH



000
FXUS63 KFGF 050448
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1148 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST AS HRRR INDICATING
POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT TSRA AS CURRENT RADAR INDICATING
SOME WEAK ECHOES DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL MN. ALSO EXPANDED
FOG MENTION ACROSS NORTHERN MN WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MOST OF THE SCT SHRA/TSRA HAVE SHIFTED E INTO NW MN AS SHORT WAVE
CONTINUES TO LIFT NE. WILL TREND ENDING OF PCPN FROM SW-NE
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NE
THIRD OF THE FA BY LATE EVENING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
LIFTED SEVERE MENTION ACROSS FAR NW MN AS CURRENT CONVECTION HAS
SHOWN NO SIGNS OF INCREASING INTENSITY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND ROUND TWO
TOMORROW WILL BE THE MAIN HEADACHE FOR THE PERIOD.

WV LOOP SHOWS A STRONG LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING
THROUGH EASTERN ND. CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE HAS WEAKENED AFTER SOME CELLS PULSED
UP TO SEVERE. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...BUT CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE
DAY AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS WORKED OVER FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS A BIT OF THINNING CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA...AND THE SPC MESOANALYSIS FINALLY HAS A BIT OF SFC BASED CAPE
AFTER THE EARLIER ELEVATED CONVECTION. THINK THERE WILL BE A
NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR REDEVELOPMENT IF THE NORTHERN CWA
CAN DESTABILIZE AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH. EVEN
THEN...THE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...AROUND
30 KTS. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT THINK THAT MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH
PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES.

TOMORROW...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...BUT MODELS BRING THROUGH ANOTHER LEAD SHORTWAVE AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
BREAK IN PRECIP FOR SATURDAY MORNING...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH RECENT RAINFALL. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD BE COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW MUCH WE WILL DESTABILIZE...BUT THE NAM AT LEAST HAS SOME
CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG...ALTHOUGH THE 40 KTS BULK SHEAR ARE
WEST OF WHERE THE BEST CAPE IS EXPECTED. A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA COULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
IF THE SHORTWAVE COMES IN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED IT COULD
COMPLICATE THINGS. SOME FAIRLY GOOD QPF IS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
LIFTS THROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS BUT FOR
NOW HAVE SOME 80S IN THE SOUTH AND 70S IN THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
STALLED FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF THE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO MONTANA AND KEEPING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST SHOULD
HELP PUSH A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS VARY
ON HOW MUCH PRECIP OCCURS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOR NOW KEPT
BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S ON SUNDAY BUT GOOD COOL AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE STARTING OFF THE PERIOD
WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WILL SEE WEST-NW
WINDS AND COOL AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR TUE. FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR
WED/WED NIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ONCE THIS FRONT
MOVES THRU THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THU/FRI.
THEREFORE LOOKING FOR MAINLY DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

BY MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE BAND OF IFR STRATUS FROM BDE-TVF AND
GFK SOUTHEASTWARD WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY BURN OFF IN THE AM. COULD
STILL SEE SOME OVERNIGHT TSRA OVER THE FAR EASTERN FA. NEXT T
POTENTIAL LOOKS LIKE LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KBIS 050248
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
948 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

NEXT IMPULSE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING.
THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING NORTHEAST AROUND 30-35 MPH AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THIS AREA LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AND
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
UPDATED POP/WX GRIDS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE TIME-LAGGED HRRR AND
PERSISTENCE THROUGH 14 UTC. ALSO EXPANDED OVERCAST CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
EXPANDED IT FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

EVEN IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY RECENTLY AS TWO
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDED. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF BISMARCK UP INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. CURRENT
INDICATIONS SUGGEST MORE LIKE AROUND MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER. THUS
CUT BACK ON POPS IN THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR
ANALYSIS INDICATES SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY AROUND GLASGOW AND
FARTHER WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 520 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS/SKY COVER AND TO FRESHEN LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT EXITED THE FAR EASTERN
CWA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER FAR EASTERN STUTSMAN INTO
LAMOURE/DICKEY COUNTIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THIS
EVENING. CHANCES RETURN OUT WEST AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE NEXT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND IMPACT WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH THIS FEATURE. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IS IN THE DAY TWO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK...THIS HAS BEEN THE DRIEST PORTION OF THE STATE THIS
SUMMER AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MORE SCATTERED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN GOOD
AGREEMENT...UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT PROPAGATING
INTO SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD MARK THE
END OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHORT TERM BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE AREA. THEREAFTER...A MEAN...LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FAVORS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THESE COOLER
TEMPERATES...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FROST POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MVFR STRATUS STILL HANGING ON AROUND KMOT AND HAS EXPANDED BACK
INTO KISN. FOG AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 050248
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
948 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

NEXT IMPULSE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING.
THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING NORTHEAST AROUND 30-35 MPH AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THIS AREA LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AND
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
UPDATED POP/WX GRIDS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE TIME-LAGGED HRRR AND
PERSISTENCE THROUGH 14 UTC. ALSO EXPANDED OVERCAST CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
EXPANDED IT FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

EVEN IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY RECENTLY AS TWO
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDED. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF BISMARCK UP INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. CURRENT
INDICATIONS SUGGEST MORE LIKE AROUND MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER. THUS
CUT BACK ON POPS IN THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR
ANALYSIS INDICATES SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY AROUND GLASGOW AND
FARTHER WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 520 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS/SKY COVER AND TO FRESHEN LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT EXITED THE FAR EASTERN
CWA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER FAR EASTERN STUTSMAN INTO
LAMOURE/DICKEY COUNTIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THIS
EVENING. CHANCES RETURN OUT WEST AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE NEXT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND IMPACT WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH THIS FEATURE. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IS IN THE DAY TWO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK...THIS HAS BEEN THE DRIEST PORTION OF THE STATE THIS
SUMMER AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MORE SCATTERED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN GOOD
AGREEMENT...UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT PROPAGATING
INTO SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD MARK THE
END OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHORT TERM BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE AREA. THEREAFTER...A MEAN...LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FAVORS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THESE COOLER
TEMPERATES...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FROST POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MVFR STRATUS STILL HANGING ON AROUND KMOT AND HAS EXPANDED BACK
INTO KISN. FOG AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 050248
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
948 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

NEXT IMPULSE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING.
THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING NORTHEAST AROUND 30-35 MPH AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THIS AREA LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AND
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
UPDATED POP/WX GRIDS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE TIME-LAGGED HRRR AND
PERSISTENCE THROUGH 14 UTC. ALSO EXPANDED OVERCAST CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
EXPANDED IT FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

EVEN IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY RECENTLY AS TWO
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDED. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF BISMARCK UP INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. CURRENT
INDICATIONS SUGGEST MORE LIKE AROUND MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER. THUS
CUT BACK ON POPS IN THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR
ANALYSIS INDICATES SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY AROUND GLASGOW AND
FARTHER WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 520 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS/SKY COVER AND TO FRESHEN LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT EXITED THE FAR EASTERN
CWA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER FAR EASTERN STUTSMAN INTO
LAMOURE/DICKEY COUNTIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THIS
EVENING. CHANCES RETURN OUT WEST AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE NEXT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND IMPACT WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH THIS FEATURE. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IS IN THE DAY TWO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK...THIS HAS BEEN THE DRIEST PORTION OF THE STATE THIS
SUMMER AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MORE SCATTERED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN GOOD
AGREEMENT...UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT PROPAGATING
INTO SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD MARK THE
END OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHORT TERM BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE AREA. THEREAFTER...A MEAN...LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FAVORS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THESE COOLER
TEMPERATES...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FROST POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MVFR STRATUS STILL HANGING ON AROUND KMOT AND HAS EXPANDED BACK
INTO KISN. FOG AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KFGF 042351
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MOST OF THE SCT SHRA/TSRA HAVE SHIFTED E INTO NW MN AS SHORT WAVE
CONTINUES TO LIFT NE. WILL TREND ENDING OF PCPN FROM SW-NE
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NE
THIRD OF THE FA BY LATE EVENING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
LIFTED SEVERE MENTION ACROSS FAR NW MN AS CURRENT CONVECTION HAS
SHOWN NO SIGNS OF INCREASING INTENSITY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND ROUND TWO
TOMORROW WILL BE THE MAIN HEADACHE FOR THE PERIOD.

WV LOOP SHOWS A STRONG LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING
THROUGH EASTERN ND. CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE HAS WEAKENED AFTER SOME CELLS PULSED
UP TO SEVERE. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...BUT CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE
DAY AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS WORKED OVER FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS A BIT OF THINNING CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA...AND THE SPC MESOANALYSIS FINALLY HAS A BIT OF SFC BASED CAPE
AFTER THE EARLIER ELEVATED CONVECTION. THINK THERE WILL BE A
NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR REDEVELOPMENT IF THE NORTHERN CWA
CAN DESTABILIZE AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH. EVEN
THEN...THE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...AROUND
30 KTS. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT THINK THAT MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH
PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES.

TOMORROW...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...BUT MODELS BRING THROUGH ANOTHER LEAD SHORTWAVE AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
BREAK IN PRECIP FOR SATURDAY MORNING...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH RECENT RAINFALL. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD BE COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW MUCH WE WILL DESTABILIZE...BUT THE NAM AT LEAST HAS SOME
CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG...ALTHOUGH THE 40 KTS BULK SHEAR ARE
WEST OF WHERE THE BEST CAPE IS EXPECTED. A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA COULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
IF THE SHORTWAVE COMES IN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED IT COULD
COMPLICATE THINGS. SOME FAIRLY GOOD QPF IS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
LIFTS THROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS BUT FOR
NOW HAVE SOME 80S IN THE SOUTH AND 70S IN THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
STALLED FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF THE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO MONTANA AND KEEPING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST SHOULD
HELP PUSH A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS VARY
ON HOW MUCH PRECIP OCCURS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOR NOW KEPT
BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S ON SUNDAY BUT GOOD COOL AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE STARTING OFF THE PERIOD
WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WILL SEE WEST-NW
WINDS AND COOL AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR TUE. FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR
WED/WED NIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ONCE THIS FRONT
MOVES THRU THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THU/FRI.
THEREFORE LOOKING FOR MAINLY DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION (TSRA) SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF
A FAR-TVF LINE ENDING FROM W-E DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING.
DID INCLUDE T MENTION FOR ABOVE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. AFTER THAT CHALLENGE WILL BE IF/WHEN LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS
WRAPPING AROUND DEPARTING LOW SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA.
CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATING BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE AFT 06Z AND
BROUGHT LOWER CIGS INTO ALL BUT FAR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 042351
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MOST OF THE SCT SHRA/TSRA HAVE SHIFTED E INTO NW MN AS SHORT WAVE
CONTINUES TO LIFT NE. WILL TREND ENDING OF PCPN FROM SW-NE
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NE
THIRD OF THE FA BY LATE EVENING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
LIFTED SEVERE MENTION ACROSS FAR NW MN AS CURRENT CONVECTION HAS
SHOWN NO SIGNS OF INCREASING INTENSITY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND ROUND TWO
TOMORROW WILL BE THE MAIN HEADACHE FOR THE PERIOD.

WV LOOP SHOWS A STRONG LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING
THROUGH EASTERN ND. CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE HAS WEAKENED AFTER SOME CELLS PULSED
UP TO SEVERE. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...BUT CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE
DAY AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS WORKED OVER FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS A BIT OF THINNING CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA...AND THE SPC MESOANALYSIS FINALLY HAS A BIT OF SFC BASED CAPE
AFTER THE EARLIER ELEVATED CONVECTION. THINK THERE WILL BE A
NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR REDEVELOPMENT IF THE NORTHERN CWA
CAN DESTABILIZE AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH. EVEN
THEN...THE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...AROUND
30 KTS. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT THINK THAT MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH
PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES.

TOMORROW...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...BUT MODELS BRING THROUGH ANOTHER LEAD SHORTWAVE AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
BREAK IN PRECIP FOR SATURDAY MORNING...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH RECENT RAINFALL. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD BE COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW MUCH WE WILL DESTABILIZE...BUT THE NAM AT LEAST HAS SOME
CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG...ALTHOUGH THE 40 KTS BULK SHEAR ARE
WEST OF WHERE THE BEST CAPE IS EXPECTED. A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA COULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
IF THE SHORTWAVE COMES IN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED IT COULD
COMPLICATE THINGS. SOME FAIRLY GOOD QPF IS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
LIFTS THROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS BUT FOR
NOW HAVE SOME 80S IN THE SOUTH AND 70S IN THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
STALLED FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF THE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO MONTANA AND KEEPING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST SHOULD
HELP PUSH A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS VARY
ON HOW MUCH PRECIP OCCURS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOR NOW KEPT
BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S ON SUNDAY BUT GOOD COOL AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE STARTING OFF THE PERIOD
WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WILL SEE WEST-NW
WINDS AND COOL AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR TUE. FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR
WED/WED NIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ONCE THIS FRONT
MOVES THRU THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THU/FRI.
THEREFORE LOOKING FOR MAINLY DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION (TSRA) SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF
A FAR-TVF LINE ENDING FROM W-E DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING.
DID INCLUDE T MENTION FOR ABOVE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. AFTER THAT CHALLENGE WILL BE IF/WHEN LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS
WRAPPING AROUND DEPARTING LOW SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA.
CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATING BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE AFT 06Z AND
BROUGHT LOWER CIGS INTO ALL BUT FAR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 042351
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MOST OF THE SCT SHRA/TSRA HAVE SHIFTED E INTO NW MN AS SHORT WAVE
CONTINUES TO LIFT NE. WILL TREND ENDING OF PCPN FROM SW-NE
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NE
THIRD OF THE FA BY LATE EVENING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
LIFTED SEVERE MENTION ACROSS FAR NW MN AS CURRENT CONVECTION HAS
SHOWN NO SIGNS OF INCREASING INTENSITY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND ROUND TWO
TOMORROW WILL BE THE MAIN HEADACHE FOR THE PERIOD.

WV LOOP SHOWS A STRONG LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING
THROUGH EASTERN ND. CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE HAS WEAKENED AFTER SOME CELLS PULSED
UP TO SEVERE. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...BUT CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE
DAY AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS WORKED OVER FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS A BIT OF THINNING CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA...AND THE SPC MESOANALYSIS FINALLY HAS A BIT OF SFC BASED CAPE
AFTER THE EARLIER ELEVATED CONVECTION. THINK THERE WILL BE A
NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR REDEVELOPMENT IF THE NORTHERN CWA
CAN DESTABILIZE AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH. EVEN
THEN...THE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...AROUND
30 KTS. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT THINK THAT MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH
PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES.

TOMORROW...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...BUT MODELS BRING THROUGH ANOTHER LEAD SHORTWAVE AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
BREAK IN PRECIP FOR SATURDAY MORNING...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH RECENT RAINFALL. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD BE COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW MUCH WE WILL DESTABILIZE...BUT THE NAM AT LEAST HAS SOME
CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG...ALTHOUGH THE 40 KTS BULK SHEAR ARE
WEST OF WHERE THE BEST CAPE IS EXPECTED. A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA COULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
IF THE SHORTWAVE COMES IN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED IT COULD
COMPLICATE THINGS. SOME FAIRLY GOOD QPF IS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
LIFTS THROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS BUT FOR
NOW HAVE SOME 80S IN THE SOUTH AND 70S IN THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
STALLED FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF THE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO MONTANA AND KEEPING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST SHOULD
HELP PUSH A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS VARY
ON HOW MUCH PRECIP OCCURS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOR NOW KEPT
BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S ON SUNDAY BUT GOOD COOL AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE STARTING OFF THE PERIOD
WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WILL SEE WEST-NW
WINDS AND COOL AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR TUE. FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR
WED/WED NIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ONCE THIS FRONT
MOVES THRU THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THU/FRI.
THEREFORE LOOKING FOR MAINLY DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION (TSRA) SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF
A FAR-TVF LINE ENDING FROM W-E DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING.
DID INCLUDE T MENTION FOR ABOVE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. AFTER THAT CHALLENGE WILL BE IF/WHEN LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS
WRAPPING AROUND DEPARTING LOW SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA.
CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATING BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE AFT 06Z AND
BROUGHT LOWER CIGS INTO ALL BUT FAR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 042351
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MOST OF THE SCT SHRA/TSRA HAVE SHIFTED E INTO NW MN AS SHORT WAVE
CONTINUES TO LIFT NE. WILL TREND ENDING OF PCPN FROM SW-NE
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NE
THIRD OF THE FA BY LATE EVENING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
LIFTED SEVERE MENTION ACROSS FAR NW MN AS CURRENT CONVECTION HAS
SHOWN NO SIGNS OF INCREASING INTENSITY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND ROUND TWO
TOMORROW WILL BE THE MAIN HEADACHE FOR THE PERIOD.

WV LOOP SHOWS A STRONG LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING
THROUGH EASTERN ND. CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE HAS WEAKENED AFTER SOME CELLS PULSED
UP TO SEVERE. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...BUT CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE
DAY AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS WORKED OVER FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS A BIT OF THINNING CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA...AND THE SPC MESOANALYSIS FINALLY HAS A BIT OF SFC BASED CAPE
AFTER THE EARLIER ELEVATED CONVECTION. THINK THERE WILL BE A
NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR REDEVELOPMENT IF THE NORTHERN CWA
CAN DESTABILIZE AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH. EVEN
THEN...THE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...AROUND
30 KTS. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT THINK THAT MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH
PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES.

TOMORROW...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...BUT MODELS BRING THROUGH ANOTHER LEAD SHORTWAVE AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
BREAK IN PRECIP FOR SATURDAY MORNING...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH RECENT RAINFALL. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD BE COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW MUCH WE WILL DESTABILIZE...BUT THE NAM AT LEAST HAS SOME
CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG...ALTHOUGH THE 40 KTS BULK SHEAR ARE
WEST OF WHERE THE BEST CAPE IS EXPECTED. A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA COULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
IF THE SHORTWAVE COMES IN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED IT COULD
COMPLICATE THINGS. SOME FAIRLY GOOD QPF IS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
LIFTS THROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS BUT FOR
NOW HAVE SOME 80S IN THE SOUTH AND 70S IN THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
STALLED FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF THE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO MONTANA AND KEEPING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST SHOULD
HELP PUSH A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS VARY
ON HOW MUCH PRECIP OCCURS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOR NOW KEPT
BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S ON SUNDAY BUT GOOD COOL AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE STARTING OFF THE PERIOD
WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WILL SEE WEST-NW
WINDS AND COOL AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR TUE. FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR
WED/WED NIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ONCE THIS FRONT
MOVES THRU THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THU/FRI.
THEREFORE LOOKING FOR MAINLY DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION (TSRA) SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF
A FAR-TVF LINE ENDING FROM W-E DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING.
DID INCLUDE T MENTION FOR ABOVE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. AFTER THAT CHALLENGE WILL BE IF/WHEN LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS
WRAPPING AROUND DEPARTING LOW SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA.
CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATING BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE AFT 06Z AND
BROUGHT LOWER CIGS INTO ALL BUT FAR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 042351
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MOST OF THE SCT SHRA/TSRA HAVE SHIFTED E INTO NW MN AS SHORT WAVE
CONTINUES TO LIFT NE. WILL TREND ENDING OF PCPN FROM SW-NE
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NE
THIRD OF THE FA BY LATE EVENING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
LIFTED SEVERE MENTION ACROSS FAR NW MN AS CURRENT CONVECTION HAS
SHOWN NO SIGNS OF INCREASING INTENSITY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND ROUND TWO
TOMORROW WILL BE THE MAIN HEADACHE FOR THE PERIOD.

WV LOOP SHOWS A STRONG LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING
THROUGH EASTERN ND. CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE HAS WEAKENED AFTER SOME CELLS PULSED
UP TO SEVERE. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...BUT CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE
DAY AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS WORKED OVER FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS A BIT OF THINNING CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA...AND THE SPC MESOANALYSIS FINALLY HAS A BIT OF SFC BASED CAPE
AFTER THE EARLIER ELEVATED CONVECTION. THINK THERE WILL BE A
NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR REDEVELOPMENT IF THE NORTHERN CWA
CAN DESTABILIZE AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH. EVEN
THEN...THE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...AROUND
30 KTS. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT THINK THAT MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH
PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES.

TOMORROW...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...BUT MODELS BRING THROUGH ANOTHER LEAD SHORTWAVE AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
BREAK IN PRECIP FOR SATURDAY MORNING...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH RECENT RAINFALL. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD BE COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW MUCH WE WILL DESTABILIZE...BUT THE NAM AT LEAST HAS SOME
CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG...ALTHOUGH THE 40 KTS BULK SHEAR ARE
WEST OF WHERE THE BEST CAPE IS EXPECTED. A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA COULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
IF THE SHORTWAVE COMES IN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED IT COULD
COMPLICATE THINGS. SOME FAIRLY GOOD QPF IS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
LIFTS THROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS BUT FOR
NOW HAVE SOME 80S IN THE SOUTH AND 70S IN THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
STALLED FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF THE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO MONTANA AND KEEPING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST SHOULD
HELP PUSH A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS VARY
ON HOW MUCH PRECIP OCCURS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOR NOW KEPT
BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S ON SUNDAY BUT GOOD COOL AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE STARTING OFF THE PERIOD
WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WILL SEE WEST-NW
WINDS AND COOL AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR TUE. FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR
WED/WED NIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ONCE THIS FRONT
MOVES THRU THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THU/FRI.
THEREFORE LOOKING FOR MAINLY DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION (TSRA) SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF
A FAR-TVF LINE ENDING FROM W-E DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING.
DID INCLUDE T MENTION FOR ABOVE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. AFTER THAT CHALLENGE WILL BE IF/WHEN LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS
WRAPPING AROUND DEPARTING LOW SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA.
CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATING BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE AFT 06Z AND
BROUGHT LOWER CIGS INTO ALL BUT FAR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 042351
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MOST OF THE SCT SHRA/TSRA HAVE SHIFTED E INTO NW MN AS SHORT WAVE
CONTINUES TO LIFT NE. WILL TREND ENDING OF PCPN FROM SW-NE
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NE
THIRD OF THE FA BY LATE EVENING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
LIFTED SEVERE MENTION ACROSS FAR NW MN AS CURRENT CONVECTION HAS
SHOWN NO SIGNS OF INCREASING INTENSITY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND ROUND TWO
TOMORROW WILL BE THE MAIN HEADACHE FOR THE PERIOD.

WV LOOP SHOWS A STRONG LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING
THROUGH EASTERN ND. CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE HAS WEAKENED AFTER SOME CELLS PULSED
UP TO SEVERE. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...BUT CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE
DAY AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS WORKED OVER FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS A BIT OF THINNING CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA...AND THE SPC MESOANALYSIS FINALLY HAS A BIT OF SFC BASED CAPE
AFTER THE EARLIER ELEVATED CONVECTION. THINK THERE WILL BE A
NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR REDEVELOPMENT IF THE NORTHERN CWA
CAN DESTABILIZE AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH. EVEN
THEN...THE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...AROUND
30 KTS. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT THINK THAT MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH
PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES.

TOMORROW...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...BUT MODELS BRING THROUGH ANOTHER LEAD SHORTWAVE AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
BREAK IN PRECIP FOR SATURDAY MORNING...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH RECENT RAINFALL. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD BE COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW MUCH WE WILL DESTABILIZE...BUT THE NAM AT LEAST HAS SOME
CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG...ALTHOUGH THE 40 KTS BULK SHEAR ARE
WEST OF WHERE THE BEST CAPE IS EXPECTED. A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA COULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
IF THE SHORTWAVE COMES IN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED IT COULD
COMPLICATE THINGS. SOME FAIRLY GOOD QPF IS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
LIFTS THROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS BUT FOR
NOW HAVE SOME 80S IN THE SOUTH AND 70S IN THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
STALLED FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF THE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO MONTANA AND KEEPING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST SHOULD
HELP PUSH A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS VARY
ON HOW MUCH PRECIP OCCURS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOR NOW KEPT
BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S ON SUNDAY BUT GOOD COOL AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE STARTING OFF THE PERIOD
WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WILL SEE WEST-NW
WINDS AND COOL AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR TUE. FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR
WED/WED NIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ONCE THIS FRONT
MOVES THRU THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THU/FRI.
THEREFORE LOOKING FOR MAINLY DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION (TSRA) SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF
A FAR-TVF LINE ENDING FROM W-E DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING.
DID INCLUDE T MENTION FOR ABOVE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. AFTER THAT CHALLENGE WILL BE IF/WHEN LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS
WRAPPING AROUND DEPARTING LOW SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA.
CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATING BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE AFT 06Z AND
BROUGHT LOWER CIGS INTO ALL BUT FAR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KBIS 042344
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
644 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

EVEN IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY RECENTLY AS TWO
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDED. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF BISMARCK UP INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. CURRENT
INDICATIONS SUGGEST MORE LIKE AROUND MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER. THUS
CUT BACK ON POPS IN THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR
ANALYSIS INDICATES SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY AROUND GLASGOW AND
FARTHER WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 520 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS/SKY COVER AND TO FRESHEN LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT EXITED THE FAR EASTERN
CWA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER FAR EASTERN STUTSMAN INTO
LAMOURE/DICKEY COUNTIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THIS
EVENING. CHANCES RETURN OUT WEST AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE NEXT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND IMPACT WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH THIS FEATURE. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IS IN THE DAY TWO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK...THIS HAS BEEN THE DRIEST PORTION OF THE STATE THIS
SUMMER AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MORE SCATTERED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN GOOD
AGREEMENT...UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT PROPAGATING
INTO SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD MARK THE
END OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHORT TERM BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE AREA. THEREAFTER...A MEAN...LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FAVORS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THESE COOLER
TEMPERATES...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FROST POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MVFR STRATUS IS STILL HANGING ON AROUND KMOT BUT HAS DISSIPATED
OVER KISN AND KDIK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... FOG AND
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 042223
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
523 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 520 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS/SKY COVER AND TO FRESHEN LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT EXITED THE FAR EASTERN
CWA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER FAR EASTERN STUTSMAN INTO
LAMOURE/DICKEY COUNTIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THIS
EVENING. CHANCES RETURN OUT WEST AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE NEXT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND IMPACT WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH THIS FEATURE. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IS IN THE DAY TWO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK...THIS HAS BEEN THE DRIEST PORTION OF THE STATE THIS
SUMMER AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MORE SCATTERED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN GOOD
AGREEMENT...UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT PROPAGATING
INTO SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD MARK THE
END OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHORT TERM BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE AREA. THEREAFTER...A MEAN...LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FAVORS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THESE COOLER
TEMPERATES...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FROST POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MVFR/IFR STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT AND ERODE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... FOG
AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 042223
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
523 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 520 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS/SKY COVER AND TO FRESHEN LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT EXITED THE FAR EASTERN
CWA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER FAR EASTERN STUTSMAN INTO
LAMOURE/DICKEY COUNTIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THIS
EVENING. CHANCES RETURN OUT WEST AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE NEXT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND IMPACT WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH THIS FEATURE. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IS IN THE DAY TWO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK...THIS HAS BEEN THE DRIEST PORTION OF THE STATE THIS
SUMMER AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MORE SCATTERED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN GOOD
AGREEMENT...UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT PROPAGATING
INTO SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD MARK THE
END OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHORT TERM BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE AREA. THEREAFTER...A MEAN...LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FAVORS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THESE COOLER
TEMPERATES...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FROST POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MVFR/IFR STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT AND ERODE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... FOG
AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 042223
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
523 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 520 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS/SKY COVER AND TO FRESHEN LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT EXITED THE FAR EASTERN
CWA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER FAR EASTERN STUTSMAN INTO
LAMOURE/DICKEY COUNTIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THIS
EVENING. CHANCES RETURN OUT WEST AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE NEXT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND IMPACT WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH THIS FEATURE. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IS IN THE DAY TWO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK...THIS HAS BEEN THE DRIEST PORTION OF THE STATE THIS
SUMMER AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MORE SCATTERED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN GOOD
AGREEMENT...UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT PROPAGATING
INTO SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD MARK THE
END OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHORT TERM BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE AREA. THEREAFTER...A MEAN...LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FAVORS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THESE COOLER
TEMPERATES...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FROST POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MVFR/IFR STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT AND ERODE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... FOG
AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KFGF 041956
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
256 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND ROUND TWO
TOMORROW WILL BE THE MAIN HEADACHE FOR THE PERIOD.

WV LOOP SHOWS A STRONG LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING
THROUGH EASTERN ND. CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE HAS WEAKENED AFTER SOME CELLS PULSED
UP TO SEVERE. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...BUT CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE
DAY AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS WORKED OVER FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS A BIT OF THINNING CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA...AND THE SPC MESOANALYSIS FINALLY HAS A BIT OF SFC BASED CAPE
AFTER THE EARLIER ELEVATED CONVECTION. THINK THERE WILL BE A
NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR REDEVELOPMENT IF THE NORTHERN CWA
CAN DESTABILIZE AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH. EVEN
THEN...THE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...AROUND
30 KTS. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT THINK THAT MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH
PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES.

TOMORROW...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...BUT MODELS BRING THROUGH ANOTHER LEAD SHORTWAVE AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
BREAK IN PRECIP FOR SATURDAY MORNING...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH RECENT RAINFALL. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD BE COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW MUCH WE WILL DESTABILIZE...BUT THE NAM AT LEAST HAS SOME
CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG...ALTHOUGH THE 40 KTS BULK SHEAR ARE
WEST OF WHERE THE BEST CAPE IS EXPECTED. A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA COULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
IF THE SHORTWAVE COMES IN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED IT COULD
COMPLICATE THINGS. SOME FAIRLY GOOD QPF IS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
LIFTS THROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS BUT FOR
NOW HAVE SOME 80S IN THE SOUTH AND 70S IN THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
STALLED FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF THE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO MONTANA AND KEEPING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST SHOULD
HELP PUSH A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS VARY
ON HOW MUCH PRECIP OCCURS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOR NOW KEPT
BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S ON SUNDAY BUT GOOD COOL AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE STARTING OFF THE PERIOD
WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WILL SEE WEST-NW
WINDS AND COOL AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR TUE. FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR
WED/WED NIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ONCE THIS FRONT
MOVES THRU THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THU/FRI.
THEREFORE LOOKING FOR MAINLY DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

TRICKY SET OF TAFS WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FOG OR LOWER CEILINGS SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST TSTMS
SEEM TO BE TRACKING QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND SHOULD ONLY AFFECT THE
KDVL AREA FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. THEN LOOKING AT THE BAND OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS SOUTH OF KFAR ROTATING NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE TAF SITES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS DROP OFF SOME TONIGHT WITH GUIDANCE HINTING AT SOME
FOG POTENTIAL OR LOW CLOUDS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. NOT
SURE HOW THICK ANY FOG WOULD BE OR HOW EXTENSIVE ANY LOW CLOUDS
WOULD GET...BUT THREW THE MENTION IN FOR NOW AND WILL SEE WHAT
LATER RUNS HAVE IN STORE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 041956
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
256 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND ROUND TWO
TOMORROW WILL BE THE MAIN HEADACHE FOR THE PERIOD.

WV LOOP SHOWS A STRONG LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING
THROUGH EASTERN ND. CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE HAS WEAKENED AFTER SOME CELLS PULSED
UP TO SEVERE. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...BUT CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE
DAY AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS WORKED OVER FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS A BIT OF THINNING CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA...AND THE SPC MESOANALYSIS FINALLY HAS A BIT OF SFC BASED CAPE
AFTER THE EARLIER ELEVATED CONVECTION. THINK THERE WILL BE A
NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR REDEVELOPMENT IF THE NORTHERN CWA
CAN DESTABILIZE AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH. EVEN
THEN...THE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...AROUND
30 KTS. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT THINK THAT MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH
PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES.

TOMORROW...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...BUT MODELS BRING THROUGH ANOTHER LEAD SHORTWAVE AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
BREAK IN PRECIP FOR SATURDAY MORNING...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH RECENT RAINFALL. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD BE COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW MUCH WE WILL DESTABILIZE...BUT THE NAM AT LEAST HAS SOME
CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG...ALTHOUGH THE 40 KTS BULK SHEAR ARE
WEST OF WHERE THE BEST CAPE IS EXPECTED. A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA COULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
IF THE SHORTWAVE COMES IN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED IT COULD
COMPLICATE THINGS. SOME FAIRLY GOOD QPF IS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
LIFTS THROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS BUT FOR
NOW HAVE SOME 80S IN THE SOUTH AND 70S IN THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
STALLED FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF THE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO MONTANA AND KEEPING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST SHOULD
HELP PUSH A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS VARY
ON HOW MUCH PRECIP OCCURS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOR NOW KEPT
BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S ON SUNDAY BUT GOOD COOL AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE STARTING OFF THE PERIOD
WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WILL SEE WEST-NW
WINDS AND COOL AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR TUE. FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR
WED/WED NIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ONCE THIS FRONT
MOVES THRU THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THU/FRI.
THEREFORE LOOKING FOR MAINLY DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

TRICKY SET OF TAFS WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FOG OR LOWER CEILINGS SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST TSTMS
SEEM TO BE TRACKING QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND SHOULD ONLY AFFECT THE
KDVL AREA FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. THEN LOOKING AT THE BAND OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS SOUTH OF KFAR ROTATING NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE TAF SITES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS DROP OFF SOME TONIGHT WITH GUIDANCE HINTING AT SOME
FOG POTENTIAL OR LOW CLOUDS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. NOT
SURE HOW THICK ANY FOG WOULD BE OR HOW EXTENSIVE ANY LOW CLOUDS
WOULD GET...BUT THREW THE MENTION IN FOR NOW AND WILL SEE WHAT
LATER RUNS HAVE IN STORE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 041956
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
256 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND ROUND TWO
TOMORROW WILL BE THE MAIN HEADACHE FOR THE PERIOD.

WV LOOP SHOWS A STRONG LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING
THROUGH EASTERN ND. CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE HAS WEAKENED AFTER SOME CELLS PULSED
UP TO SEVERE. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...BUT CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE
DAY AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS WORKED OVER FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS A BIT OF THINNING CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA...AND THE SPC MESOANALYSIS FINALLY HAS A BIT OF SFC BASED CAPE
AFTER THE EARLIER ELEVATED CONVECTION. THINK THERE WILL BE A
NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR REDEVELOPMENT IF THE NORTHERN CWA
CAN DESTABILIZE AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH. EVEN
THEN...THE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...AROUND
30 KTS. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT THINK THAT MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH
PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES.

TOMORROW...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...BUT MODELS BRING THROUGH ANOTHER LEAD SHORTWAVE AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
BREAK IN PRECIP FOR SATURDAY MORNING...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH RECENT RAINFALL. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD BE COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW MUCH WE WILL DESTABILIZE...BUT THE NAM AT LEAST HAS SOME
CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG...ALTHOUGH THE 40 KTS BULK SHEAR ARE
WEST OF WHERE THE BEST CAPE IS EXPECTED. A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA COULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
IF THE SHORTWAVE COMES IN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED IT COULD
COMPLICATE THINGS. SOME FAIRLY GOOD QPF IS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
LIFTS THROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS BUT FOR
NOW HAVE SOME 80S IN THE SOUTH AND 70S IN THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
STALLED FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF THE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO MONTANA AND KEEPING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST SHOULD
HELP PUSH A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS VARY
ON HOW MUCH PRECIP OCCURS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOR NOW KEPT
BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S ON SUNDAY BUT GOOD COOL AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE STARTING OFF THE PERIOD
WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WILL SEE WEST-NW
WINDS AND COOL AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR TUE. FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR
WED/WED NIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ONCE THIS FRONT
MOVES THRU THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THU/FRI.
THEREFORE LOOKING FOR MAINLY DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

TRICKY SET OF TAFS WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FOG OR LOWER CEILINGS SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST TSTMS
SEEM TO BE TRACKING QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND SHOULD ONLY AFFECT THE
KDVL AREA FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. THEN LOOKING AT THE BAND OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS SOUTH OF KFAR ROTATING NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE TAF SITES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS DROP OFF SOME TONIGHT WITH GUIDANCE HINTING AT SOME
FOG POTENTIAL OR LOW CLOUDS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. NOT
SURE HOW THICK ANY FOG WOULD BE OR HOW EXTENSIVE ANY LOW CLOUDS
WOULD GET...BUT THREW THE MENTION IN FOR NOW AND WILL SEE WHAT
LATER RUNS HAVE IN STORE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 041956
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
256 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND ROUND TWO
TOMORROW WILL BE THE MAIN HEADACHE FOR THE PERIOD.

WV LOOP SHOWS A STRONG LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING
THROUGH EASTERN ND. CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE HAS WEAKENED AFTER SOME CELLS PULSED
UP TO SEVERE. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...BUT CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE
DAY AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS WORKED OVER FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS A BIT OF THINNING CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA...AND THE SPC MESOANALYSIS FINALLY HAS A BIT OF SFC BASED CAPE
AFTER THE EARLIER ELEVATED CONVECTION. THINK THERE WILL BE A
NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR REDEVELOPMENT IF THE NORTHERN CWA
CAN DESTABILIZE AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH. EVEN
THEN...THE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...AROUND
30 KTS. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT THINK THAT MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH
PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES.

TOMORROW...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...BUT MODELS BRING THROUGH ANOTHER LEAD SHORTWAVE AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
BREAK IN PRECIP FOR SATURDAY MORNING...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH RECENT RAINFALL. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD BE COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW MUCH WE WILL DESTABILIZE...BUT THE NAM AT LEAST HAS SOME
CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG...ALTHOUGH THE 40 KTS BULK SHEAR ARE
WEST OF WHERE THE BEST CAPE IS EXPECTED. A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA COULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
IF THE SHORTWAVE COMES IN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED IT COULD
COMPLICATE THINGS. SOME FAIRLY GOOD QPF IS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
LIFTS THROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS BUT FOR
NOW HAVE SOME 80S IN THE SOUTH AND 70S IN THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
STALLED FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF THE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO MONTANA AND KEEPING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST SHOULD
HELP PUSH A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS VARY
ON HOW MUCH PRECIP OCCURS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOR NOW KEPT
BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S ON SUNDAY BUT GOOD COOL AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE STARTING OFF THE PERIOD
WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WILL SEE WEST-NW
WINDS AND COOL AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR TUE. FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR
WED/WED NIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ONCE THIS FRONT
MOVES THRU THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THU/FRI.
THEREFORE LOOKING FOR MAINLY DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

TRICKY SET OF TAFS WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FOG OR LOWER CEILINGS SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST TSTMS
SEEM TO BE TRACKING QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND SHOULD ONLY AFFECT THE
KDVL AREA FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. THEN LOOKING AT THE BAND OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS SOUTH OF KFAR ROTATING NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE TAF SITES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS DROP OFF SOME TONIGHT WITH GUIDANCE HINTING AT SOME
FOG POTENTIAL OR LOW CLOUDS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. NOT
SURE HOW THICK ANY FOG WOULD BE OR HOW EXTENSIVE ANY LOW CLOUDS
WOULD GET...BUT THREW THE MENTION IN FOR NOW AND WILL SEE WHAT
LATER RUNS HAVE IN STORE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KBIS 041945
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
245 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE NEXT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND IMPACT WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH THIS FEATURE. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IS IN THE DAY TWO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK...THIS HAS BEEN THE DRIEST PORTION OF THE STATE THIS
SUMMER AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MORE SCATTERED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN GOOD
AGREEMENT...UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT PROPAGATING
INTO SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD MARK THE
END OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHORT TERM BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE AREA. THEREAFTER...A MEAN...LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FAVORS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THESE COOLER
TEMPERATES...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FROST POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND ERODE INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
FOG AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KFGF 041736
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA. A FEW HAVE BEEN PULSING UP TO
SEVERE...BUT THE STRONGER CELLS ARE FAIRLY ISOLATED. MOST OF THE
INSTABILITY IS STILL PRETTY ELEVATED AND OUR RISK HAS GONE DOWN
SOMEWHAT. ADJUSTED POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HAVE HIGH
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN CWA INTO THIS EVENING AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH. WILL MAKE MORE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NEEDED. LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WITH PRECIP AND CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH...BUT EVEN WITH CLOUDS SOME LOCATIONS ARE GETTING UP INTO
THE 80S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE MAIN UPPER WAVE IS STILL LIFTING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA...AND
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
SOUTHERN CWA. ALL ELEVATED AT THIS POINT AS THE SFC IS STILL
CAPPED. ADJUSTED POPS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUMPING THEM UP IN
THE SOUTH AND DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL IS
UNCERTAIN WITH HOW MUCH CLOUDS WE HAVE. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING BUT SOME HIGHER CIRRUS IS STARTING TO COME IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AT THIS POINT THINK THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR WHEN THE WAVE COMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SOME STORMS...SO WILL KEEP THE SEVERE MENTION THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE
VALLEY AND ADJUSTED SKY ACCORDINGLY. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE
CIGS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...AND NO CHANGES NEEDED TO MAX
TEMPS TODAY.

THE UPPER WAVE TO WATCH FOR TODAY CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS.
THIS MAY BE A BIT QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...BUT MAIN IDEAS
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING THE REGION (AND MOVING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING). THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AS THE SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS LOCATED THROUGH CENTRAL ND. THE
FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY
LIKELY LEADING TO A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SHORTWAVE. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS (SPC INDICATES A SLIGHT
RISK). CAM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE 00Z SPC SSEO
INDICATES VERY HIGH PROBABILITIES OF STRONG UPDRAFT HELICITY AND
WIND GUST POTENTIAL FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA
GIVEN WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. TO THE
SOUTH...NOT SURE THE EXTENT OF STORMS GIVEN THE WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPS (CAPPING) AND WEAKER FORCING. DID KEEP CHC POPS SINCE IF A
STORM OR TWO CAN DEVELOP THEY SHOULD BE SEVERE. DAMAGING HAIL AND
WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
WEAK WHICH LIMITS TORNADO POTENTIAL (ALTHOUGH STILL NOT
IMPOSSIBLE).

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AND WPC INDICATES A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING SIGNALS
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ARE WEAK...MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH
WITH MODELS SUGGESTING PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGH RAINFALL RATES (> 1 INCH/HOUR). GIVEN THESE FACTORS WILL
MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE (RW+) ACROSS THE DVL BASIN
AND NORTHERN VALLEY. TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CONCERNS. THERE WILL A BREAK EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...LEADING TO LIKELY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WILL NEED TO WAIT AND
ATTEMPT TO FIGURE OUT DETAILS GIVEN SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT
REMAIN. THE MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BY
SUNDAY EVENING...SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
SOMETIME ON SUNDAY...WHICH COULD AGAIN LEAD TO AN AREA OF STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR
THE START OF THIS PERIOD. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW
PULLS AWAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. TEMPS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH AREAS NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO HIT 60. IN GENERAL...MUCH OF THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER WITH
THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WOULD IMPACT TEMP TRENDS AND MINOR RAIN CHANCES WITH
EMBEDDED IMPULSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

TRICKY SET OF TAFS WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FOG OR LOWER CEILINGS SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST TSTMS
SEEM TO BE TRACKING QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND SHOULD ONLY AFFECT THE
KDVL AREA FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. THEN LOOKING AT THE BAND OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS SOUTH OF KFAR ROTATING NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE TAF SITES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS DROP OFF SOME TONIGHT WITH GUIDANCE HINTING AT SOME
FOG POTENTIAL OR LOW CLOUDS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. NOT
SURE HOW THICK ANY FOG WOULD BE OR HOW EXTENSIVE ANY LOW CLOUDS
WOULD GET...BUT THREW THE MENTION IN FOR NOW AND WILL SEE WHAT
LATER RUNS HAVE IN STORE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 041736
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA. A FEW HAVE BEEN PULSING UP TO
SEVERE...BUT THE STRONGER CELLS ARE FAIRLY ISOLATED. MOST OF THE
INSTABILITY IS STILL PRETTY ELEVATED AND OUR RISK HAS GONE DOWN
SOMEWHAT. ADJUSTED POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HAVE HIGH
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN CWA INTO THIS EVENING AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH. WILL MAKE MORE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NEEDED. LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WITH PRECIP AND CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH...BUT EVEN WITH CLOUDS SOME LOCATIONS ARE GETTING UP INTO
THE 80S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE MAIN UPPER WAVE IS STILL LIFTING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA...AND
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
SOUTHERN CWA. ALL ELEVATED AT THIS POINT AS THE SFC IS STILL
CAPPED. ADJUSTED POPS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUMPING THEM UP IN
THE SOUTH AND DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL IS
UNCERTAIN WITH HOW MUCH CLOUDS WE HAVE. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING BUT SOME HIGHER CIRRUS IS STARTING TO COME IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AT THIS POINT THINK THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR WHEN THE WAVE COMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SOME STORMS...SO WILL KEEP THE SEVERE MENTION THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE
VALLEY AND ADJUSTED SKY ACCORDINGLY. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE
CIGS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...AND NO CHANGES NEEDED TO MAX
TEMPS TODAY.

THE UPPER WAVE TO WATCH FOR TODAY CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS.
THIS MAY BE A BIT QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...BUT MAIN IDEAS
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING THE REGION (AND MOVING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING). THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AS THE SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS LOCATED THROUGH CENTRAL ND. THE
FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY
LIKELY LEADING TO A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SHORTWAVE. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS (SPC INDICATES A SLIGHT
RISK). CAM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE 00Z SPC SSEO
INDICATES VERY HIGH PROBABILITIES OF STRONG UPDRAFT HELICITY AND
WIND GUST POTENTIAL FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA
GIVEN WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. TO THE
SOUTH...NOT SURE THE EXTENT OF STORMS GIVEN THE WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPS (CAPPING) AND WEAKER FORCING. DID KEEP CHC POPS SINCE IF A
STORM OR TWO CAN DEVELOP THEY SHOULD BE SEVERE. DAMAGING HAIL AND
WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
WEAK WHICH LIMITS TORNADO POTENTIAL (ALTHOUGH STILL NOT
IMPOSSIBLE).

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AND WPC INDICATES A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING SIGNALS
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ARE WEAK...MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH
WITH MODELS SUGGESTING PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGH RAINFALL RATES (> 1 INCH/HOUR). GIVEN THESE FACTORS WILL
MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE (RW+) ACROSS THE DVL BASIN
AND NORTHERN VALLEY. TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CONCERNS. THERE WILL A BREAK EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...LEADING TO LIKELY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WILL NEED TO WAIT AND
ATTEMPT TO FIGURE OUT DETAILS GIVEN SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT
REMAIN. THE MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BY
SUNDAY EVENING...SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
SOMETIME ON SUNDAY...WHICH COULD AGAIN LEAD TO AN AREA OF STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR
THE START OF THIS PERIOD. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW
PULLS AWAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. TEMPS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH AREAS NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO HIT 60. IN GENERAL...MUCH OF THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER WITH
THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WOULD IMPACT TEMP TRENDS AND MINOR RAIN CHANCES WITH
EMBEDDED IMPULSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

TRICKY SET OF TAFS WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FOG OR LOWER CEILINGS SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST TSTMS
SEEM TO BE TRACKING QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND SHOULD ONLY AFFECT THE
KDVL AREA FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. THEN LOOKING AT THE BAND OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS SOUTH OF KFAR ROTATING NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE TAF SITES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS DROP OFF SOME TONIGHT WITH GUIDANCE HINTING AT SOME
FOG POTENTIAL OR LOW CLOUDS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. NOT
SURE HOW THICK ANY FOG WOULD BE OR HOW EXTENSIVE ANY LOW CLOUDS
WOULD GET...BUT THREW THE MENTION IN FOR NOW AND WILL SEE WHAT
LATER RUNS HAVE IN STORE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GODON



000
FXUS63 KFGF 041736
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA. A FEW HAVE BEEN PULSING UP TO
SEVERE...BUT THE STRONGER CELLS ARE FAIRLY ISOLATED. MOST OF THE
INSTABILITY IS STILL PRETTY ELEVATED AND OUR RISK HAS GONE DOWN
SOMEWHAT. ADJUSTED POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HAVE HIGH
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN CWA INTO THIS EVENING AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH. WILL MAKE MORE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NEEDED. LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WITH PRECIP AND CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH...BUT EVEN WITH CLOUDS SOME LOCATIONS ARE GETTING UP INTO
THE 80S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE MAIN UPPER WAVE IS STILL LIFTING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA...AND
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
SOUTHERN CWA. ALL ELEVATED AT THIS POINT AS THE SFC IS STILL
CAPPED. ADJUSTED POPS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUMPING THEM UP IN
THE SOUTH AND DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL IS
UNCERTAIN WITH HOW MUCH CLOUDS WE HAVE. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING BUT SOME HIGHER CIRRUS IS STARTING TO COME IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AT THIS POINT THINK THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR WHEN THE WAVE COMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SOME STORMS...SO WILL KEEP THE SEVERE MENTION THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE
VALLEY AND ADJUSTED SKY ACCORDINGLY. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE
CIGS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...AND NO CHANGES NEEDED TO MAX
TEMPS TODAY.

THE UPPER WAVE TO WATCH FOR TODAY CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS.
THIS MAY BE A BIT QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...BUT MAIN IDEAS
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING THE REGION (AND MOVING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING). THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AS THE SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS LOCATED THROUGH CENTRAL ND. THE
FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY
LIKELY LEADING TO A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SHORTWAVE. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS (SPC INDICATES A SLIGHT
RISK). CAM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE 00Z SPC SSEO
INDICATES VERY HIGH PROBABILITIES OF STRONG UPDRAFT HELICITY AND
WIND GUST POTENTIAL FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA
GIVEN WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. TO THE
SOUTH...NOT SURE THE EXTENT OF STORMS GIVEN THE WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPS (CAPPING) AND WEAKER FORCING. DID KEEP CHC POPS SINCE IF A
STORM OR TWO CAN DEVELOP THEY SHOULD BE SEVERE. DAMAGING HAIL AND
WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
WEAK WHICH LIMITS TORNADO POTENTIAL (ALTHOUGH STILL NOT
IMPOSSIBLE).

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AND WPC INDICATES A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING SIGNALS
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ARE WEAK...MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH
WITH MODELS SUGGESTING PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGH RAINFALL RATES (> 1 INCH/HOUR). GIVEN THESE FACTORS WILL
MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE (RW+) ACROSS THE DVL BASIN
AND NORTHERN VALLEY. TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CONCERNS. THERE WILL A BREAK EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...LEADING TO LIKELY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WILL NEED TO WAIT AND
ATTEMPT TO FIGURE OUT DETAILS GIVEN SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT
REMAIN. THE MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BY
SUNDAY EVENING...SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
SOMETIME ON SUNDAY...WHICH COULD AGAIN LEAD TO AN AREA OF STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR
THE START OF THIS PERIOD. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW
PULLS AWAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. TEMPS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH AREAS NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO HIT 60. IN GENERAL...MUCH OF THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER WITH
THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WOULD IMPACT TEMP TRENDS AND MINOR RAIN CHANCES WITH
EMBEDDED IMPULSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

TRICKY SET OF TAFS WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FOG OR LOWER CEILINGS SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST TSTMS
SEEM TO BE TRACKING QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND SHOULD ONLY AFFECT THE
KDVL AREA FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. THEN LOOKING AT THE BAND OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS SOUTH OF KFAR ROTATING NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE TAF SITES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS DROP OFF SOME TONIGHT WITH GUIDANCE HINTING AT SOME
FOG POTENTIAL OR LOW CLOUDS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. NOT
SURE HOW THICK ANY FOG WOULD BE OR HOW EXTENSIVE ANY LOW CLOUDS
WOULD GET...BUT THREW THE MENTION IN FOR NOW AND WILL SEE WHAT
LATER RUNS HAVE IN STORE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 041736
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA. A FEW HAVE BEEN PULSING UP TO
SEVERE...BUT THE STRONGER CELLS ARE FAIRLY ISOLATED. MOST OF THE
INSTABILITY IS STILL PRETTY ELEVATED AND OUR RISK HAS GONE DOWN
SOMEWHAT. ADJUSTED POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HAVE HIGH
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN CWA INTO THIS EVENING AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH. WILL MAKE MORE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NEEDED. LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WITH PRECIP AND CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH...BUT EVEN WITH CLOUDS SOME LOCATIONS ARE GETTING UP INTO
THE 80S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE MAIN UPPER WAVE IS STILL LIFTING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA...AND
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
SOUTHERN CWA. ALL ELEVATED AT THIS POINT AS THE SFC IS STILL
CAPPED. ADJUSTED POPS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUMPING THEM UP IN
THE SOUTH AND DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL IS
UNCERTAIN WITH HOW MUCH CLOUDS WE HAVE. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING BUT SOME HIGHER CIRRUS IS STARTING TO COME IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AT THIS POINT THINK THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR WHEN THE WAVE COMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SOME STORMS...SO WILL KEEP THE SEVERE MENTION THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE
VALLEY AND ADJUSTED SKY ACCORDINGLY. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE
CIGS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...AND NO CHANGES NEEDED TO MAX
TEMPS TODAY.

THE UPPER WAVE TO WATCH FOR TODAY CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS.
THIS MAY BE A BIT QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...BUT MAIN IDEAS
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING THE REGION (AND MOVING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING). THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AS THE SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS LOCATED THROUGH CENTRAL ND. THE
FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY
LIKELY LEADING TO A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SHORTWAVE. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS (SPC INDICATES A SLIGHT
RISK). CAM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE 00Z SPC SSEO
INDICATES VERY HIGH PROBABILITIES OF STRONG UPDRAFT HELICITY AND
WIND GUST POTENTIAL FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA
GIVEN WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. TO THE
SOUTH...NOT SURE THE EXTENT OF STORMS GIVEN THE WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPS (CAPPING) AND WEAKER FORCING. DID KEEP CHC POPS SINCE IF A
STORM OR TWO CAN DEVELOP THEY SHOULD BE SEVERE. DAMAGING HAIL AND
WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
WEAK WHICH LIMITS TORNADO POTENTIAL (ALTHOUGH STILL NOT
IMPOSSIBLE).

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AND WPC INDICATES A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING SIGNALS
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ARE WEAK...MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH
WITH MODELS SUGGESTING PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGH RAINFALL RATES (> 1 INCH/HOUR). GIVEN THESE FACTORS WILL
MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE (RW+) ACROSS THE DVL BASIN
AND NORTHERN VALLEY. TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CONCERNS. THERE WILL A BREAK EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...LEADING TO LIKELY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WILL NEED TO WAIT AND
ATTEMPT TO FIGURE OUT DETAILS GIVEN SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT
REMAIN. THE MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BY
SUNDAY EVENING...SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
SOMETIME ON SUNDAY...WHICH COULD AGAIN LEAD TO AN AREA OF STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR
THE START OF THIS PERIOD. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW
PULLS AWAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. TEMPS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH AREAS NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO HIT 60. IN GENERAL...MUCH OF THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER WITH
THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WOULD IMPACT TEMP TRENDS AND MINOR RAIN CHANCES WITH
EMBEDDED IMPULSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

TRICKY SET OF TAFS WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FOG OR LOWER CEILINGS SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST TSTMS
SEEM TO BE TRACKING QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND SHOULD ONLY AFFECT THE
KDVL AREA FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. THEN LOOKING AT THE BAND OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS SOUTH OF KFAR ROTATING NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE TAF SITES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS DROP OFF SOME TONIGHT WITH GUIDANCE HINTING AT SOME
FOG POTENTIAL OR LOW CLOUDS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. NOT
SURE HOW THICK ANY FOG WOULD BE OR HOW EXTENSIVE ANY LOW CLOUDS
WOULD GET...BUT THREW THE MENTION IN FOR NOW AND WILL SEE WHAT
LATER RUNS HAVE IN STORE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GODON



000
FXUS63 KBIS 041707
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1207 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AS OF 17 UTC...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WAS FOCUSING ACROSS THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS WAVE
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST...EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND IN
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPDATE TO BLEND OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS TO A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF
THE 10-12 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF ONGOING
CONVECTION THIS MORNING. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FOR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE 13 UTC RAP FORECAST
DEPICTS 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND 20-25 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...SUPPORTING
THE MARGINAL RISK FOR POSSIBLY A SEVERE STORM OR TWO.
HOWEVER...THE RAP ALSO PROPAGATES THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM OF
THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING INTO
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...THE TIMING OF
THE WAVE SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
RESIDE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AT THIS TIME OVER FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER AREA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE A BROAD AREA OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS OUR REGION. FOR THE
MORNING UPDATE...HAVE TRIED TO TIME OUT THE MOTION/ARRIVAL OF
THESE STORMS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
FAR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

CURRENTLY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV
IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TOWARDS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS MY NORTHWEST
NEAR A POST FRONTAL AXIS. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING A WELL
DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FEED FROM TROPICAL STORM FRED
SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WARM MID-ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
SUGGESTS A MORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT VERSUS WIDESPREAD.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND AS HIGH RES AND LATEST NAM MODEL
SUGGEST...NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
LOOK HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
VIGOROUS CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING SOUTH INTO MY NORTHWEST. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTH WHICH LATEST NAM AND HRRR
BRING INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN 12-15Z OR SO. VERY UNSEASONABLE
HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OUT THERE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S
CENTRAL AND EAST.

EMBEDDED WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY AND EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE WAVE`S WAKE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SPC
OUTLOOK MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO MAINLY THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SO OPTED TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING
IN OUR PRODUCTS. MODELS HINTING AT LOW LEVEL STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING
TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH COUPLED WITH
FORECAST RAINFALL TODAY.

NEXT STRONG EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING POPS WEST LATE TONIGHT THEN SPREADING
EAST AND NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF TOWARDS NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ON SUNDAY...GREATEST
CHANCES WILL BE RESTRICTED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
UPPER LOW STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST
LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH COOLING TREND
CONTINUING AS LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND ERRODE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT KJMS THROUGH 19-20 UTC. FOG
AND STRATUS MAY BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD



000
FXUS63 KBIS 041707
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1207 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AS OF 17 UTC...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WAS FOCUSING ACROSS THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS WAVE
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST...EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND IN
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPDATE TO BLEND OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS TO A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF
THE 10-12 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF ONGOING
CONVECTION THIS MORNING. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FOR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE 13 UTC RAP FORECAST
DEPICTS 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND 20-25 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...SUPPORTING
THE MARGINAL RISK FOR POSSIBLY A SEVERE STORM OR TWO.
HOWEVER...THE RAP ALSO PROPAGATES THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM OF
THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING INTO
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...THE TIMING OF
THE WAVE SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
RESIDE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AT THIS TIME OVER FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER AREA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE A BROAD AREA OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS OUR REGION. FOR THE
MORNING UPDATE...HAVE TRIED TO TIME OUT THE MOTION/ARRIVAL OF
THESE STORMS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
FAR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

CURRENTLY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV
IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TOWARDS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS MY NORTHWEST
NEAR A POST FRONTAL AXIS. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING A WELL
DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FEED FROM TROPICAL STORM FRED
SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WARM MID-ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
SUGGESTS A MORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT VERSUS WIDESPREAD.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND AS HIGH RES AND LATEST NAM MODEL
SUGGEST...NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
LOOK HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
VIGOROUS CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING SOUTH INTO MY NORTHWEST. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTH WHICH LATEST NAM AND HRRR
BRING INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN 12-15Z OR SO. VERY UNSEASONABLE
HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OUT THERE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S
CENTRAL AND EAST.

EMBEDDED WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY AND EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE WAVE`S WAKE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SPC
OUTLOOK MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO MAINLY THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SO OPTED TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING
IN OUR PRODUCTS. MODELS HINTING AT LOW LEVEL STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING
TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH COUPLED WITH
FORECAST RAINFALL TODAY.

NEXT STRONG EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING POPS WEST LATE TONIGHT THEN SPREADING
EAST AND NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF TOWARDS NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ON SUNDAY...GREATEST
CHANCES WILL BE RESTRICTED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
UPPER LOW STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST
LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH COOLING TREND
CONTINUING AS LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND ERRODE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT KJMS THROUGH 19-20 UTC. FOG
AND STRATUS MAY BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD



000
FXUS63 KBIS 041707
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1207 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AS OF 17 UTC...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WAS FOCUSING ACROSS THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS WAVE
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST...EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND IN
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPDATE TO BLEND OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS TO A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF
THE 10-12 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF ONGOING
CONVECTION THIS MORNING. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FOR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE 13 UTC RAP FORECAST
DEPICTS 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND 20-25 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...SUPPORTING
THE MARGINAL RISK FOR POSSIBLY A SEVERE STORM OR TWO.
HOWEVER...THE RAP ALSO PROPAGATES THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM OF
THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING INTO
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...THE TIMING OF
THE WAVE SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
RESIDE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AT THIS TIME OVER FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER AREA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE A BROAD AREA OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS OUR REGION. FOR THE
MORNING UPDATE...HAVE TRIED TO TIME OUT THE MOTION/ARRIVAL OF
THESE STORMS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
FAR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

CURRENTLY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV
IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TOWARDS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS MY NORTHWEST
NEAR A POST FRONTAL AXIS. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING A WELL
DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FEED FROM TROPICAL STORM FRED
SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WARM MID-ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
SUGGESTS A MORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT VERSUS WIDESPREAD.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND AS HIGH RES AND LATEST NAM MODEL
SUGGEST...NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
LOOK HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
VIGOROUS CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING SOUTH INTO MY NORTHWEST. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTH WHICH LATEST NAM AND HRRR
BRING INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN 12-15Z OR SO. VERY UNSEASONABLE
HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OUT THERE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S
CENTRAL AND EAST.

EMBEDDED WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY AND EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE WAVE`S WAKE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SPC
OUTLOOK MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO MAINLY THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SO OPTED TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING
IN OUR PRODUCTS. MODELS HINTING AT LOW LEVEL STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING
TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH COUPLED WITH
FORECAST RAINFALL TODAY.

NEXT STRONG EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING POPS WEST LATE TONIGHT THEN SPREADING
EAST AND NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF TOWARDS NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ON SUNDAY...GREATEST
CHANCES WILL BE RESTRICTED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
UPPER LOW STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST
LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH COOLING TREND
CONTINUING AS LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND ERRODE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT KJMS THROUGH 19-20 UTC. FOG
AND STRATUS MAY BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD



000
FXUS63 KBIS 041707
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1207 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AS OF 17 UTC...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WAS FOCUSING ACROSS THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS WAVE
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST...EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND IN
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPDATE TO BLEND OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS TO A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF
THE 10-12 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF ONGOING
CONVECTION THIS MORNING. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FOR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE 13 UTC RAP FORECAST
DEPICTS 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND 20-25 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...SUPPORTING
THE MARGINAL RISK FOR POSSIBLY A SEVERE STORM OR TWO.
HOWEVER...THE RAP ALSO PROPAGATES THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM OF
THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING INTO
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...THE TIMING OF
THE WAVE SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
RESIDE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AT THIS TIME OVER FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER AREA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE A BROAD AREA OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS OUR REGION. FOR THE
MORNING UPDATE...HAVE TRIED TO TIME OUT THE MOTION/ARRIVAL OF
THESE STORMS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
FAR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

CURRENTLY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV
IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TOWARDS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS MY NORTHWEST
NEAR A POST FRONTAL AXIS. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING A WELL
DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FEED FROM TROPICAL STORM FRED
SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WARM MID-ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
SUGGESTS A MORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT VERSUS WIDESPREAD.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND AS HIGH RES AND LATEST NAM MODEL
SUGGEST...NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
LOOK HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
VIGOROUS CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING SOUTH INTO MY NORTHWEST. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTH WHICH LATEST NAM AND HRRR
BRING INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN 12-15Z OR SO. VERY UNSEASONABLE
HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OUT THERE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S
CENTRAL AND EAST.

EMBEDDED WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY AND EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE WAVE`S WAKE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SPC
OUTLOOK MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO MAINLY THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SO OPTED TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING
IN OUR PRODUCTS. MODELS HINTING AT LOW LEVEL STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING
TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH COUPLED WITH
FORECAST RAINFALL TODAY.

NEXT STRONG EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING POPS WEST LATE TONIGHT THEN SPREADING
EAST AND NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF TOWARDS NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ON SUNDAY...GREATEST
CHANCES WILL BE RESTRICTED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
UPPER LOW STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST
LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH COOLING TREND
CONTINUING AS LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND ERRODE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT KJMS THROUGH 19-20 UTC. FOG
AND STRATUS MAY BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD



000
FXUS63 KBIS 041707
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1207 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AS OF 17 UTC...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WAS FOCUSING ACROSS THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS WAVE
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST...EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND IN
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPDATE TO BLEND OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS TO A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF
THE 10-12 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF ONGOING
CONVECTION THIS MORNING. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FOR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE 13 UTC RAP FORECAST
DEPICTS 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND 20-25 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...SUPPORTING
THE MARGINAL RISK FOR POSSIBLY A SEVERE STORM OR TWO.
HOWEVER...THE RAP ALSO PROPAGATES THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM OF
THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING INTO
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...THE TIMING OF
THE WAVE SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
RESIDE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AT THIS TIME OVER FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER AREA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE A BROAD AREA OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS OUR REGION. FOR THE
MORNING UPDATE...HAVE TRIED TO TIME OUT THE MOTION/ARRIVAL OF
THESE STORMS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
FAR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

CURRENTLY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV
IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TOWARDS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS MY NORTHWEST
NEAR A POST FRONTAL AXIS. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING A WELL
DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FEED FROM TROPICAL STORM FRED
SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WARM MID-ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
SUGGESTS A MORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT VERSUS WIDESPREAD.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND AS HIGH RES AND LATEST NAM MODEL
SUGGEST...NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
LOOK HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
VIGOROUS CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING SOUTH INTO MY NORTHWEST. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTH WHICH LATEST NAM AND HRRR
BRING INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN 12-15Z OR SO. VERY UNSEASONABLE
HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OUT THERE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S
CENTRAL AND EAST.

EMBEDDED WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY AND EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE WAVE`S WAKE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SPC
OUTLOOK MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO MAINLY THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SO OPTED TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING
IN OUR PRODUCTS. MODELS HINTING AT LOW LEVEL STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING
TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH COUPLED WITH
FORECAST RAINFALL TODAY.

NEXT STRONG EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING POPS WEST LATE TONIGHT THEN SPREADING
EAST AND NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF TOWARDS NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ON SUNDAY...GREATEST
CHANCES WILL BE RESTRICTED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
UPPER LOW STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST
LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH COOLING TREND
CONTINUING AS LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND ERRODE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT KJMS THROUGH 19-20 UTC. FOG
AND STRATUS MAY BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 041707
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1207 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AS OF 17 UTC...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WAS FOCUSING ACROSS THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS WAVE
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST...EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND IN
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPDATE TO BLEND OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS TO A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF
THE 10-12 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF ONGOING
CONVECTION THIS MORNING. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FOR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE 13 UTC RAP FORECAST
DEPICTS 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND 20-25 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...SUPPORTING
THE MARGINAL RISK FOR POSSIBLY A SEVERE STORM OR TWO.
HOWEVER...THE RAP ALSO PROPAGATES THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM OF
THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING INTO
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...THE TIMING OF
THE WAVE SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
RESIDE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AT THIS TIME OVER FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER AREA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE A BROAD AREA OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS OUR REGION. FOR THE
MORNING UPDATE...HAVE TRIED TO TIME OUT THE MOTION/ARRIVAL OF
THESE STORMS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
FAR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

CURRENTLY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV
IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TOWARDS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS MY NORTHWEST
NEAR A POST FRONTAL AXIS. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING A WELL
DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FEED FROM TROPICAL STORM FRED
SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WARM MID-ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
SUGGESTS A MORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT VERSUS WIDESPREAD.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND AS HIGH RES AND LATEST NAM MODEL
SUGGEST...NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
LOOK HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
VIGOROUS CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING SOUTH INTO MY NORTHWEST. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTH WHICH LATEST NAM AND HRRR
BRING INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN 12-15Z OR SO. VERY UNSEASONABLE
HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OUT THERE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S
CENTRAL AND EAST.

EMBEDDED WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY AND EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE WAVE`S WAKE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SPC
OUTLOOK MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO MAINLY THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SO OPTED TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING
IN OUR PRODUCTS. MODELS HINTING AT LOW LEVEL STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING
TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH COUPLED WITH
FORECAST RAINFALL TODAY.

NEXT STRONG EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING POPS WEST LATE TONIGHT THEN SPREADING
EAST AND NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF TOWARDS NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ON SUNDAY...GREATEST
CHANCES WILL BE RESTRICTED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
UPPER LOW STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST
LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH COOLING TREND
CONTINUING AS LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND ERRODE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT KJMS THROUGH 19-20 UTC. FOG
AND STRATUS MAY BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD



000
FXUS63 KFGF 041441
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
941 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE MAIN UPPER WAVE IS STILL LIFTING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA...AND
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
SOUTHERN CWA. ALL ELEVATED AT THIS POINT AS THE SFC IS STILL
CAPPED. ADJUSTED POPS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUMPING THEM UP IN
THE SOUTH AND DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL IS
UNCERTAIN WITH HOW MUCH CLOUDS WE HAVE. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING BUT SOME HIGHER CIRRUS IS STARTING TO COME IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AT THIS POINT THINK THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR WHEN THE WAVE COMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SOME STORMS...SO WILL KEEP THE SEVERE MENTION THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE
VALLEY AND ADJUSTED SKY ACCORDINGLY. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE
CIGS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...AND NO CHANGES NEEDED TO MAX
TEMPS TODAY.

THE UPPER WAVE TO WATCH FOR TODAY CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS.
THIS MAY BE A BIT QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...BUT MAIN IDEAS
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING THE REGION (AND MOVING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING). THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AS THE SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS LOCATED THROUGH CENTRAL ND. THE
FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY
LIKELY LEADING TO A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SHORTWAVE. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS (SPC INDICATES A SLIGHT
RISK). CAM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE 00Z SPC SSEO
INDICATES VERY HIGH PROBABILITIES OF STRONG UPDRAFT HELICITY AND
WIND GUST POTENTIAL FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA
GIVEN WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. TO THE
SOUTH...NOT SURE THE EXTENT OF STORMS GIVEN THE WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPS (CAPPING) AND WEAKER FORCING. DID KEEP CHC POPS SINCE IF A
STORM OR TWO CAN DEVELOP THEY SHOULD BE SEVERE. DAMAGING HAIL AND
WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
WEAK WHICH LIMITS TORNADO POTENTIAL (ALTHOUGH STILL NOT
IMPOSSIBLE).

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AND WPC INDICATES A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING SIGNALS
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ARE WEAK...MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH
WITH MODELS SUGGESTING PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGH RAINFALL RATES (> 1 INCH/HOUR). GIVEN THESE FACTORS WILL
MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE (RW+) ACROSS THE DVL BASIN
AND NORTHERN VALLEY. TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CONCERNS. THERE WILL A BREAK EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...LEADING TO LIKELY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WILL NEED TO WAIT AND
ATTEMPT TO FIGURE OUT DETAILS GIVEN SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT
REMAIN. THE MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BY
SUNDAY EVENING...SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
SOMETIME ON SUNDAY...WHICH COULD AGAIN LEAD TO AN AREA OF STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR
THE START OF THIS PERIOD. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW
PULLS AWAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. TEMPS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH AREAS NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO HIT 60. IN GENERAL...MUCH OF THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER WITH
THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WOULD IMPACT TEMP TRENDS AND MINOR RAIN CHANCES WITH
EMBEDDED IMPULSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL THEN BECOME THUNDER POTENTIAL. BEST CHANCES APPEAR
TO BE FROM KDVL INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
ISOLD/SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA. WILL AMEND
TAFS WHERE AND IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG



000
FXUS63 KFGF 041441
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
941 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE MAIN UPPER WAVE IS STILL LIFTING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA...AND
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
SOUTHERN CWA. ALL ELEVATED AT THIS POINT AS THE SFC IS STILL
CAPPED. ADJUSTED POPS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUMPING THEM UP IN
THE SOUTH AND DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL IS
UNCERTAIN WITH HOW MUCH CLOUDS WE HAVE. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING BUT SOME HIGHER CIRRUS IS STARTING TO COME IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AT THIS POINT THINK THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR WHEN THE WAVE COMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SOME STORMS...SO WILL KEEP THE SEVERE MENTION THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE
VALLEY AND ADJUSTED SKY ACCORDINGLY. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE
CIGS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...AND NO CHANGES NEEDED TO MAX
TEMPS TODAY.

THE UPPER WAVE TO WATCH FOR TODAY CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS.
THIS MAY BE A BIT QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...BUT MAIN IDEAS
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING THE REGION (AND MOVING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING). THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AS THE SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS LOCATED THROUGH CENTRAL ND. THE
FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY
LIKELY LEADING TO A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SHORTWAVE. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS (SPC INDICATES A SLIGHT
RISK). CAM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE 00Z SPC SSEO
INDICATES VERY HIGH PROBABILITIES OF STRONG UPDRAFT HELICITY AND
WIND GUST POTENTIAL FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA
GIVEN WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. TO THE
SOUTH...NOT SURE THE EXTENT OF STORMS GIVEN THE WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPS (CAPPING) AND WEAKER FORCING. DID KEEP CHC POPS SINCE IF A
STORM OR TWO CAN DEVELOP THEY SHOULD BE SEVERE. DAMAGING HAIL AND
WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
WEAK WHICH LIMITS TORNADO POTENTIAL (ALTHOUGH STILL NOT
IMPOSSIBLE).

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AND WPC INDICATES A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING SIGNALS
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ARE WEAK...MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH
WITH MODELS SUGGESTING PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGH RAINFALL RATES (> 1 INCH/HOUR). GIVEN THESE FACTORS WILL
MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE (RW+) ACROSS THE DVL BASIN
AND NORTHERN VALLEY. TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CONCERNS. THERE WILL A BREAK EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...LEADING TO LIKELY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WILL NEED TO WAIT AND
ATTEMPT TO FIGURE OUT DETAILS GIVEN SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT
REMAIN. THE MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BY
SUNDAY EVENING...SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
SOMETIME ON SUNDAY...WHICH COULD AGAIN LEAD TO AN AREA OF STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR
THE START OF THIS PERIOD. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW
PULLS AWAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. TEMPS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH AREAS NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO HIT 60. IN GENERAL...MUCH OF THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER WITH
THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WOULD IMPACT TEMP TRENDS AND MINOR RAIN CHANCES WITH
EMBEDDED IMPULSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL THEN BECOME THUNDER POTENTIAL. BEST CHANCES APPEAR
TO BE FROM KDVL INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
ISOLD/SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA. WILL AMEND
TAFS WHERE AND IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KBIS 041413
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
913 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPDATE TO BLEND OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS TO A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF
THE 10-12 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF ONGOING
CONVECTION THIS MORNING. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FOR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE 13 UTC RAP FORECAST
DEPICTS 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND 20-25 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...SUPPORTING
THE MARGINAL RISK FOR POSSIBLY A SEVERE STORM OR TWO.
HOWEVER...THE RAP ALSO PROPAGATES THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM OF
THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING INTO
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...THE TIMING OF
THE WAVE SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
RESIDE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AT THIS TIME OVER FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER AREA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE A BROAD AREA OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS OUR REGION. FOR THE
MORNING UPDATE...HAVE TRIED TO TIME OUT THE MOTION/ARRIVAL OF
THESE STORMS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
FAR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

CURRENTLY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV
IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TOWARDS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS MY NORTHWEST
NEAR A POST FRONTAL AXIS. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING A WELL
DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FEED FROM TROPICAL STORM FRED
SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WARM MID-ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
SUGGESTS A MORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT VERSUS WIDESPREAD.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND AS HIGH RES AND LATEST NAM MODEL
SUGGEST...NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
LOOK HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
VIGOROUS CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING SOUTH INTO MY NORTHWEST. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTH WHICH LATEST NAM AND HRRR
BRING INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN 12-15Z OR SO. VERY UNSEASONABLE
HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OUT THERE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S
CENTRAL AND EAST.

EMBEDDED WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY AND EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE WAVE`S WAKE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SPC
OUTLOOK MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO MAINLY THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SO OPTED TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING
IN OUR PRODUCTS. MODELS HINTING AT LOW LEVEL STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING
TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH COUPLED WITH
FORECAST RAINFALL TODAY.

NEXT STRONG EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING POPS WEST LATE TONIGHT THEN SPREADING
EAST AND NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF TOWARDS NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ON SUNDAY...GREATEST
CHANCES WILL BE RESTRICTED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
UPPER LOW STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST
LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH COOLING TREND
CONTINUING AS LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

PATCHY FOG AND IFR STRATUS POTENTIAL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH
VERY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERN
TERMINALS WILL SEE -SHRA AND VCTS NOW THROUGH MID
MORNING...SPREADING EAST MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD



000
FXUS63 KBIS 041413
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
913 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPDATE TO BLEND OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS TO A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF
THE 10-12 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF ONGOING
CONVECTION THIS MORNING. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FOR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE 13 UTC RAP FORECAST
DEPICTS 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND 20-25 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...SUPPORTING
THE MARGINAL RISK FOR POSSIBLY A SEVERE STORM OR TWO.
HOWEVER...THE RAP ALSO PROPAGATES THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM OF
THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING INTO
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...THE TIMING OF
THE WAVE SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
RESIDE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AT THIS TIME OVER FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER AREA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE A BROAD AREA OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS OUR REGION. FOR THE
MORNING UPDATE...HAVE TRIED TO TIME OUT THE MOTION/ARRIVAL OF
THESE STORMS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
FAR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

CURRENTLY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV
IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TOWARDS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS MY NORTHWEST
NEAR A POST FRONTAL AXIS. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING A WELL
DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FEED FROM TROPICAL STORM FRED
SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WARM MID-ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
SUGGESTS A MORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT VERSUS WIDESPREAD.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND AS HIGH RES AND LATEST NAM MODEL
SUGGEST...NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
LOOK HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
VIGOROUS CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING SOUTH INTO MY NORTHWEST. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTH WHICH LATEST NAM AND HRRR
BRING INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN 12-15Z OR SO. VERY UNSEASONABLE
HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OUT THERE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S
CENTRAL AND EAST.

EMBEDDED WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY AND EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE WAVE`S WAKE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SPC
OUTLOOK MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO MAINLY THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SO OPTED TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING
IN OUR PRODUCTS. MODELS HINTING AT LOW LEVEL STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING
TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH COUPLED WITH
FORECAST RAINFALL TODAY.

NEXT STRONG EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING POPS WEST LATE TONIGHT THEN SPREADING
EAST AND NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF TOWARDS NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ON SUNDAY...GREATEST
CHANCES WILL BE RESTRICTED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
UPPER LOW STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST
LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH COOLING TREND
CONTINUING AS LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

PATCHY FOG AND IFR STRATUS POTENTIAL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH
VERY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERN
TERMINALS WILL SEE -SHRA AND VCTS NOW THROUGH MID
MORNING...SPREADING EAST MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KFGF 041152
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
652 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE
VALLEY AND ADJUSTED SKY ACCORDINGLY. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE
CIGS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...AND NO CHANGES NEEDED TO MAX
TEMPS TODAY.

THE UPPER WAVE TO WATCH FOR TODAY CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS.
THIS MAY BE A BIT QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...BUT MAIN IDEAS
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING THE REGION (AND MOVING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING). THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AS THE SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS LOCATED THROUGH CENTRAL ND. THE
FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY
LIKELY LEADING TO A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SHORTWAVE. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS (SPC INDICATES A SLIGHT
RISK). CAM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE 00Z SPC SSEO
INDICATES VERY HIGH PROBABILITIES OF STRONG UPDRAFT HELICITY AND
WIND GUST POTENTIAL FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA
GIVEN WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. TO THE
SOUTH...NOT SURE THE EXTENT OF STORMS GIVEN THE WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPS (CAPPING) AND WEAKER FORCING. DID KEEP CHC POPS SINCE IF A
STORM OR TWO CAN DEVELOP THEY SHOULD BE SEVERE. DAMAGING HAIL AND
WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
WEAK WHICH LIMITS TORNADO POTENTIAL (ALTHOUGH STILL NOT
IMPOSSIBLE).

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AND WPC INDICATES A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING SIGNALS
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ARE WEAK...MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH
WITH MODELS SUGGESTING PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGH RAINFALL RATES (> 1 INCH/HOUR). GIVEN THESE FACTORS WILL
MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE (RW+) ACROSS THE DVL BASIN
AND NORTHERN VALLEY. TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CONCERNS. THERE WILL A BREAK EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...LEADING TO LIKELY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WILL NEED TO WAIT AND
ATTEMPT TO FIGURE OUT DETAILS GIVEN SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT
REMAIN. THE MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BY
SUNDAY EVENING...SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
SOMETIME ON SUNDAY...WHICH COULD AGAIN LEAD TO AN AREA OF STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR
THE START OF THIS PERIOD. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW
PULLS AWAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. TEMPS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH AREAS NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO HIT 60. IN GENERAL...MUCH OF THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER WITH
THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WOULD IMPACT TEMP TRENDS AND MINOR RAIN CHANCES WITH
EMBEDDED IMPULSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL THEN BECOME THUNDER POTENTIAL. BEST CHANCES APPEAR
TO BE FROM KDVL INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
ISOLD/SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA. WILL AMEND
TAFS WHERE AND IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG



000
FXUS63 KFGF 041152
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
652 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE
VALLEY AND ADJUSTED SKY ACCORDINGLY. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE
CIGS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...AND NO CHANGES NEEDED TO MAX
TEMPS TODAY.

THE UPPER WAVE TO WATCH FOR TODAY CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS.
THIS MAY BE A BIT QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...BUT MAIN IDEAS
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING THE REGION (AND MOVING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING). THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AS THE SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS LOCATED THROUGH CENTRAL ND. THE
FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY
LIKELY LEADING TO A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SHORTWAVE. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS (SPC INDICATES A SLIGHT
RISK). CAM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE 00Z SPC SSEO
INDICATES VERY HIGH PROBABILITIES OF STRONG UPDRAFT HELICITY AND
WIND GUST POTENTIAL FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA
GIVEN WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. TO THE
SOUTH...NOT SURE THE EXTENT OF STORMS GIVEN THE WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPS (CAPPING) AND WEAKER FORCING. DID KEEP CHC POPS SINCE IF A
STORM OR TWO CAN DEVELOP THEY SHOULD BE SEVERE. DAMAGING HAIL AND
WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
WEAK WHICH LIMITS TORNADO POTENTIAL (ALTHOUGH STILL NOT
IMPOSSIBLE).

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AND WPC INDICATES A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING SIGNALS
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ARE WEAK...MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH
WITH MODELS SUGGESTING PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGH RAINFALL RATES (> 1 INCH/HOUR). GIVEN THESE FACTORS WILL
MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE (RW+) ACROSS THE DVL BASIN
AND NORTHERN VALLEY. TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CONCERNS. THERE WILL A BREAK EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...LEADING TO LIKELY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WILL NEED TO WAIT AND
ATTEMPT TO FIGURE OUT DETAILS GIVEN SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT
REMAIN. THE MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BY
SUNDAY EVENING...SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
SOMETIME ON SUNDAY...WHICH COULD AGAIN LEAD TO AN AREA OF STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR
THE START OF THIS PERIOD. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW
PULLS AWAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. TEMPS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH AREAS NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO HIT 60. IN GENERAL...MUCH OF THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER WITH
THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WOULD IMPACT TEMP TRENDS AND MINOR RAIN CHANCES WITH
EMBEDDED IMPULSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL THEN BECOME THUNDER POTENTIAL. BEST CHANCES APPEAR
TO BE FROM KDVL INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
ISOLD/SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA. WILL AMEND
TAFS WHERE AND IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 041152
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
652 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE
VALLEY AND ADJUSTED SKY ACCORDINGLY. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE
CIGS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...AND NO CHANGES NEEDED TO MAX
TEMPS TODAY.

THE UPPER WAVE TO WATCH FOR TODAY CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS.
THIS MAY BE A BIT QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...BUT MAIN IDEAS
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING THE REGION (AND MOVING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING). THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AS THE SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS LOCATED THROUGH CENTRAL ND. THE
FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY
LIKELY LEADING TO A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SHORTWAVE. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS (SPC INDICATES A SLIGHT
RISK). CAM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE 00Z SPC SSEO
INDICATES VERY HIGH PROBABILITIES OF STRONG UPDRAFT HELICITY AND
WIND GUST POTENTIAL FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA
GIVEN WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. TO THE
SOUTH...NOT SURE THE EXTENT OF STORMS GIVEN THE WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPS (CAPPING) AND WEAKER FORCING. DID KEEP CHC POPS SINCE IF A
STORM OR TWO CAN DEVELOP THEY SHOULD BE SEVERE. DAMAGING HAIL AND
WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
WEAK WHICH LIMITS TORNADO POTENTIAL (ALTHOUGH STILL NOT
IMPOSSIBLE).

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AND WPC INDICATES A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING SIGNALS
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ARE WEAK...MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH
WITH MODELS SUGGESTING PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGH RAINFALL RATES (> 1 INCH/HOUR). GIVEN THESE FACTORS WILL
MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE (RW+) ACROSS THE DVL BASIN
AND NORTHERN VALLEY. TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CONCERNS. THERE WILL A BREAK EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...LEADING TO LIKELY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WILL NEED TO WAIT AND
ATTEMPT TO FIGURE OUT DETAILS GIVEN SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT
REMAIN. THE MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BY
SUNDAY EVENING...SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
SOMETIME ON SUNDAY...WHICH COULD AGAIN LEAD TO AN AREA OF STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR
THE START OF THIS PERIOD. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW
PULLS AWAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. TEMPS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH AREAS NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO HIT 60. IN GENERAL...MUCH OF THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER WITH
THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WOULD IMPACT TEMP TRENDS AND MINOR RAIN CHANCES WITH
EMBEDDED IMPULSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL THEN BECOME THUNDER POTENTIAL. BEST CHANCES APPEAR
TO BE FROM KDVL INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
ISOLD/SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA. WILL AMEND
TAFS WHERE AND IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG



000
FXUS63 KBIS 041133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AT THIS TIME OVER FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER AREA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE A BROAD AREA OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS OUR REGION. FOR THE
MORNING UPDATE...HAVE TRIED TO TIME OUT THE MOTION/ARRIVAL OF
THESE STORMS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
FAR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

CURRENTLY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV
IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TOWARDS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS MY NORTHWEST
NEAR A POST FRONTAL AXIS. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING A WELL
DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FEED FROM TROPICAL STORM FRED
SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WARM MID-ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
SUGGESTS A MORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT VERSUS WIDESPREAD.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND AS HIGH RES AND LATEST NAM MODEL
SUGGEST...NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
LOOK HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
VIGOROUS CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING SOUTH INTO MY NORTHWEST. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTH WHICH LATEST NAM AND HRRR
BRING INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN 12-15Z OR SO. VERY UNSEASONABLE
HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OUT THERE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S
CENTRAL AND EAST.

EMBEDDED WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY AND EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE WAVE`S WAKE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SPC
OUTLOOK MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO MAINLY THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SO OPTED TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING
IN OUR PRODUCTS. MODELS HINTING AT LOW LEVEL STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING
TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH COUPLED WITH
FORECAST RAINFALL TODAY.

NEXT STRONG EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING POPS WEST LATE TONIGHT THEN SPREADING
EAST AND NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF TOWARDS NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ON SUNDAY...GREATEST
CHANCES WILL BE RESTRICTED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
UPPER LOW STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST
LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH COOLING TREND
CONTINUING AS LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VERY
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERN TERMINALS
WILL SEE -SHRA AND VCTS NOW THROUGH MID MORNING...SPREADING EAST
MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 041133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AT THIS TIME OVER FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER AREA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE A BROAD AREA OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS OUR REGION. FOR THE
MORNING UPDATE...HAVE TRIED TO TIME OUT THE MOTION/ARRIVAL OF
THESE STORMS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
FAR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

CURRENTLY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV
IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TOWARDS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS MY NORTHWEST
NEAR A POST FRONTAL AXIS. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING A WELL
DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FEED FROM TROPICAL STORM FRED
SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WARM MID-ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
SUGGESTS A MORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT VERSUS WIDESPREAD.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND AS HIGH RES AND LATEST NAM MODEL
SUGGEST...NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
LOOK HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
VIGOROUS CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING SOUTH INTO MY NORTHWEST. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTH WHICH LATEST NAM AND HRRR
BRING INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN 12-15Z OR SO. VERY UNSEASONABLE
HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OUT THERE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S
CENTRAL AND EAST.

EMBEDDED WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY AND EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE WAVE`S WAKE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SPC
OUTLOOK MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO MAINLY THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SO OPTED TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING
IN OUR PRODUCTS. MODELS HINTING AT LOW LEVEL STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING
TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH COUPLED WITH
FORECAST RAINFALL TODAY.

NEXT STRONG EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING POPS WEST LATE TONIGHT THEN SPREADING
EAST AND NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF TOWARDS NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ON SUNDAY...GREATEST
CHANCES WILL BE RESTRICTED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
UPPER LOW STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST
LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH COOLING TREND
CONTINUING AS LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VERY
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERN TERMINALS
WILL SEE -SHRA AND VCTS NOW THROUGH MID MORNING...SPREADING EAST
MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 041133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AT THIS TIME OVER FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER AREA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE A BROAD AREA OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS OUR REGION. FOR THE
MORNING UPDATE...HAVE TRIED TO TIME OUT THE MOTION/ARRIVAL OF
THESE STORMS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
FAR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

CURRENTLY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV
IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TOWARDS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS MY NORTHWEST
NEAR A POST FRONTAL AXIS. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING A WELL
DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FEED FROM TROPICAL STORM FRED
SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WARM MID-ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
SUGGESTS A MORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT VERSUS WIDESPREAD.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND AS HIGH RES AND LATEST NAM MODEL
SUGGEST...NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
LOOK HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
VIGOROUS CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING SOUTH INTO MY NORTHWEST. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTH WHICH LATEST NAM AND HRRR
BRING INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN 12-15Z OR SO. VERY UNSEASONABLE
HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OUT THERE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S
CENTRAL AND EAST.

EMBEDDED WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY AND EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE WAVE`S WAKE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SPC
OUTLOOK MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO MAINLY THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SO OPTED TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING
IN OUR PRODUCTS. MODELS HINTING AT LOW LEVEL STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING
TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH COUPLED WITH
FORECAST RAINFALL TODAY.

NEXT STRONG EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING POPS WEST LATE TONIGHT THEN SPREADING
EAST AND NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF TOWARDS NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ON SUNDAY...GREATEST
CHANCES WILL BE RESTRICTED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
UPPER LOW STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST
LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH COOLING TREND
CONTINUING AS LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VERY
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERN TERMINALS
WILL SEE -SHRA AND VCTS NOW THROUGH MID MORNING...SPREADING EAST
MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 041133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AT THIS TIME OVER FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER AREA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE A BROAD AREA OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS OUR REGION. FOR THE
MORNING UPDATE...HAVE TRIED TO TIME OUT THE MOTION/ARRIVAL OF
THESE STORMS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
FAR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

CURRENTLY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV
IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TOWARDS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS MY NORTHWEST
NEAR A POST FRONTAL AXIS. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING A WELL
DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FEED FROM TROPICAL STORM FRED
SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WARM MID-ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
SUGGESTS A MORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT VERSUS WIDESPREAD.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND AS HIGH RES AND LATEST NAM MODEL
SUGGEST...NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
LOOK HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
VIGOROUS CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING SOUTH INTO MY NORTHWEST. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTH WHICH LATEST NAM AND HRRR
BRING INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN 12-15Z OR SO. VERY UNSEASONABLE
HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OUT THERE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S
CENTRAL AND EAST.

EMBEDDED WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY AND EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE WAVE`S WAKE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SPC
OUTLOOK MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO MAINLY THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SO OPTED TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING
IN OUR PRODUCTS. MODELS HINTING AT LOW LEVEL STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING
TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH COUPLED WITH
FORECAST RAINFALL TODAY.

NEXT STRONG EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING POPS WEST LATE TONIGHT THEN SPREADING
EAST AND NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF TOWARDS NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ON SUNDAY...GREATEST
CHANCES WILL BE RESTRICTED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
UPPER LOW STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST
LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH COOLING TREND
CONTINUING AS LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VERY
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERN TERMINALS
WILL SEE -SHRA AND VCTS NOW THROUGH MID MORNING...SPREADING EAST
MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 041133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AT THIS TIME OVER FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER AREA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE A BROAD AREA OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS OUR REGION. FOR THE
MORNING UPDATE...HAVE TRIED TO TIME OUT THE MOTION/ARRIVAL OF
THESE STORMS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
FAR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

CURRENTLY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV
IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TOWARDS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS MY NORTHWEST
NEAR A POST FRONTAL AXIS. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING A WELL
DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FEED FROM TROPICAL STORM FRED
SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WARM MID-ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
SUGGESTS A MORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT VERSUS WIDESPREAD.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND AS HIGH RES AND LATEST NAM MODEL
SUGGEST...NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
LOOK HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
VIGOROUS CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING SOUTH INTO MY NORTHWEST. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTH WHICH LATEST NAM AND HRRR
BRING INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN 12-15Z OR SO. VERY UNSEASONABLE
HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OUT THERE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S
CENTRAL AND EAST.

EMBEDDED WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY AND EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE WAVE`S WAKE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SPC
OUTLOOK MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO MAINLY THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SO OPTED TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING
IN OUR PRODUCTS. MODELS HINTING AT LOW LEVEL STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING
TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH COUPLED WITH
FORECAST RAINFALL TODAY.

NEXT STRONG EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING POPS WEST LATE TONIGHT THEN SPREADING
EAST AND NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF TOWARDS NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ON SUNDAY...GREATEST
CHANCES WILL BE RESTRICTED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
UPPER LOW STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST
LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH COOLING TREND
CONTINUING AS LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VERY
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERN TERMINALS
WILL SEE -SHRA AND VCTS NOW THROUGH MID MORNING...SPREADING EAST
MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 041133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AT THIS TIME OVER FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER AREA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE A BROAD AREA OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS OUR REGION. FOR THE
MORNING UPDATE...HAVE TRIED TO TIME OUT THE MOTION/ARRIVAL OF
THESE STORMS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
FAR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

CURRENTLY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV
IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TOWARDS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS MY NORTHWEST
NEAR A POST FRONTAL AXIS. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING A WELL
DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FEED FROM TROPICAL STORM FRED
SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WARM MID-ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
SUGGESTS A MORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT VERSUS WIDESPREAD.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND AS HIGH RES AND LATEST NAM MODEL
SUGGEST...NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
LOOK HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
VIGOROUS CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING SOUTH INTO MY NORTHWEST. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTH WHICH LATEST NAM AND HRRR
BRING INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN 12-15Z OR SO. VERY UNSEASONABLE
HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OUT THERE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S
CENTRAL AND EAST.

EMBEDDED WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY AND EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE WAVE`S WAKE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SPC
OUTLOOK MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO MAINLY THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SO OPTED TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING
IN OUR PRODUCTS. MODELS HINTING AT LOW LEVEL STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING
TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH COUPLED WITH
FORECAST RAINFALL TODAY.

NEXT STRONG EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING POPS WEST LATE TONIGHT THEN SPREADING
EAST AND NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF TOWARDS NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ON SUNDAY...GREATEST
CHANCES WILL BE RESTRICTED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
UPPER LOW STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST
LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH COOLING TREND
CONTINUING AS LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VERY
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERN TERMINALS
WILL SEE -SHRA AND VCTS NOW THROUGH MID MORNING...SPREADING EAST
MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 041133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AT THIS TIME OVER FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER AREA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE A BROAD AREA OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS OUR REGION. FOR THE
MORNING UPDATE...HAVE TRIED TO TIME OUT THE MOTION/ARRIVAL OF
THESE STORMS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
FAR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

CURRENTLY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV
IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TOWARDS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS MY NORTHWEST
NEAR A POST FRONTAL AXIS. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING A WELL
DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FEED FROM TROPICAL STORM FRED
SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WARM MID-ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
SUGGESTS A MORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT VERSUS WIDESPREAD.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND AS HIGH RES AND LATEST NAM MODEL
SUGGEST...NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
LOOK HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
VIGOROUS CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING SOUTH INTO MY NORTHWEST. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTH WHICH LATEST NAM AND HRRR
BRING INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN 12-15Z OR SO. VERY UNSEASONABLE
HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OUT THERE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S
CENTRAL AND EAST.

EMBEDDED WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY AND EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE WAVE`S WAKE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SPC
OUTLOOK MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO MAINLY THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SO OPTED TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING
IN OUR PRODUCTS. MODELS HINTING AT LOW LEVEL STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING
TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH COUPLED WITH
FORECAST RAINFALL TODAY.

NEXT STRONG EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING POPS WEST LATE TONIGHT THEN SPREADING
EAST AND NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF TOWARDS NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ON SUNDAY...GREATEST
CHANCES WILL BE RESTRICTED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
UPPER LOW STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST
LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH COOLING TREND
CONTINUING AS LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VERY
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERN TERMINALS
WILL SEE -SHRA AND VCTS NOW THROUGH MID MORNING...SPREADING EAST
MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 041133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AT THIS TIME OVER FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER AREA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE A BROAD AREA OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS OUR REGION. FOR THE
MORNING UPDATE...HAVE TRIED TO TIME OUT THE MOTION/ARRIVAL OF
THESE STORMS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
FAR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

CURRENTLY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV
IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TOWARDS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS MY NORTHWEST
NEAR A POST FRONTAL AXIS. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING A WELL
DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FEED FROM TROPICAL STORM FRED
SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WARM MID-ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
SUGGESTS A MORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT VERSUS WIDESPREAD.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND AS HIGH RES AND LATEST NAM MODEL
SUGGEST...NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
LOOK HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
VIGOROUS CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING SOUTH INTO MY NORTHWEST. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTH WHICH LATEST NAM AND HRRR
BRING INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN 12-15Z OR SO. VERY UNSEASONABLE
HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OUT THERE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S
CENTRAL AND EAST.

EMBEDDED WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY AND EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE WAVE`S WAKE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SPC
OUTLOOK MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO MAINLY THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SO OPTED TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING
IN OUR PRODUCTS. MODELS HINTING AT LOW LEVEL STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING
TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH COUPLED WITH
FORECAST RAINFALL TODAY.

NEXT STRONG EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING POPS WEST LATE TONIGHT THEN SPREADING
EAST AND NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF TOWARDS NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ON SUNDAY...GREATEST
CHANCES WILL BE RESTRICTED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
UPPER LOW STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST
LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH COOLING TREND
CONTINUING AS LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VERY
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERN TERMINALS
WILL SEE -SHRA AND VCTS NOW THROUGH MID MORNING...SPREADING EAST
MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 040932
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
432 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
FAR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

CURRENTLY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV
IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TOWARDS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS MY NORTHWEST
NEAR A POST FRONTAL AXIS. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING A WELL
DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FEED FROM TROPICAL STORM FRED
SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WARM MID-ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
SUGGESTS A MORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT VERSUS WIDESPREAD.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND AS HIGH RES AND LATEST NAM MODEL
SUGGEST...NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
LOOK HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
VIGOROUS CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING SOUTH INTO MY NORTHWEST. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTH WHICH LATEST NAM AND HRRR
BRING INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN 12-15Z OR SO. VERY UNSEASONABLE
HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OUT THERE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S
CENTRAL AND EAST.

EMBEDDED WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY AND EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE WAVE`S WAKE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SPC
OUTLOOK MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO MAINLY THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SO OPTED TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING
IN OUR PRODUCTS. MODELS HINTING AT LOW LEVEL STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING
TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH COUPLED WITH
FORECAST RAINFALL TODAY.

NEXT STRONG EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING POPS WEST LATE TONIGHT THEN SPREADING
EAST AND NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF TOWARDS NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ON SUNDAY...GREATEST
CHANCES WILL BE RESTRICTED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
UPPER LOW STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST
LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH COOLING TREND
CONTINUING AS LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VERY
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERN TERMINALS
WILL SEE -SHRA AND VCTS NOW THROUGH MID MORNING...SPREADING EAST
MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH



000
FXUS63 KFGF 040833
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
333 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING THE REGION (AND MOVING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING). THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AS THE SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS LOCATED THROUGH CENTRAL ND. THE
FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY
LIKELY LEADING TO A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SHORTWAVE. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS (SPC INDICATES A SLIGHT
RISK). CAM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE 00Z SPC SSEO
INDICATES VERY HIGH PROBABILITIES OF STRONG UPDRAFT HELICITY AND
WIND GUST POTENTIAL FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA
GIVEN WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. TO THE
SOUTH...NOT SURE THE EXTENT OF STORMS GIVEN THE WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPS (CAPPING) AND WEAKER FORCING. DID KEEP CHC POPS SINCE IF A
STORM OR TWO CAN DEVELOP THEY SHOULD BE SEVERE. DAMAGING HAIL AND
WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
WEAK WHICH LIMITS TORNADO POTENTIAL (ALTHOUGH STILL NOT
IMPOSSIBLE).

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AND WPC INDICATES A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING SIGNALS
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ARE WEAK...MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH
WITH MODELS SUGGESTING PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGH RAINFALL RATES (> 1 INCH/HOUR). GIVEN THESE FACTORS WILL
MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE (RW+) ACROSS THE DVL BASIN
AND NORTHERN VALLEY. TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CONCERNS. THERE WILL A BREAK EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...LEADING TO LIKELY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WILL NEED TO WAIT AND
ATTEMPT TO FIGURE OUT DETAILS GIVEN SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT
REMAIN. THE MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BY
SUNDAY EVENING...SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
SOMETIME ON SUNDAY...WHICH COULD AGAIN LEAD TO AN AREA OF STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR
THE START OF THIS PERIOD. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW
PULLS AWAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. TEMPS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH AREAS NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO HIT 60. IN GENERAL...MUCH OF THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER WITH
THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WOULD IMPACT TEMP TRENDS AND MINOR RAIN CHANCES WITH
EMBEDDED IMPULSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE THUNDER CHANCES SLIM AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT. ST/FG WILL AGAIN BE A BIG CHALLENGE. LATEST
GUIDANCE BRINGS SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
HALF OF THE FA LATE TONIGHT AND INCLUDED IN LATEST TAF SETS. BEST
T POTENTIAL TOMORROW SHOULD BE LATE AFTERNOON FIRST IN THE DVL
AREA AND INTO THE VALLEY BY EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 040833
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
333 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING THE REGION (AND MOVING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING). THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AS THE SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS LOCATED THROUGH CENTRAL ND. THE
FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY
LIKELY LEADING TO A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SHORTWAVE. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS (SPC INDICATES A SLIGHT
RISK). CAM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE 00Z SPC SSEO
INDICATES VERY HIGH PROBABILITIES OF STRONG UPDRAFT HELICITY AND
WIND GUST POTENTIAL FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA
GIVEN WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. TO THE
SOUTH...NOT SURE THE EXTENT OF STORMS GIVEN THE WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPS (CAPPING) AND WEAKER FORCING. DID KEEP CHC POPS SINCE IF A
STORM OR TWO CAN DEVELOP THEY SHOULD BE SEVERE. DAMAGING HAIL AND
WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
WEAK WHICH LIMITS TORNADO POTENTIAL (ALTHOUGH STILL NOT
IMPOSSIBLE).

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AND WPC INDICATES A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING SIGNALS
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ARE WEAK...MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH
WITH MODELS SUGGESTING PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGH RAINFALL RATES (> 1 INCH/HOUR). GIVEN THESE FACTORS WILL
MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE (RW+) ACROSS THE DVL BASIN
AND NORTHERN VALLEY. TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CONCERNS. THERE WILL A BREAK EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...LEADING TO LIKELY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WILL NEED TO WAIT AND
ATTEMPT TO FIGURE OUT DETAILS GIVEN SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT
REMAIN. THE MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BY
SUNDAY EVENING...SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
SOMETIME ON SUNDAY...WHICH COULD AGAIN LEAD TO AN AREA OF STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR
THE START OF THIS PERIOD. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW
PULLS AWAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. TEMPS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH AREAS NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO HIT 60. IN GENERAL...MUCH OF THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER WITH
THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WOULD IMPACT TEMP TRENDS AND MINOR RAIN CHANCES WITH
EMBEDDED IMPULSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE THUNDER CHANCES SLIM AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT. ST/FG WILL AGAIN BE A BIG CHALLENGE. LATEST
GUIDANCE BRINGS SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
HALF OF THE FA LATE TONIGHT AND INCLUDED IN LATEST TAF SETS. BEST
T POTENTIAL TOMORROW SHOULD BE LATE AFTERNOON FIRST IN THE DVL
AREA AND INTO THE VALLEY BY EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 040833
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
333 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING THE REGION (AND MOVING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING). THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AS THE SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS LOCATED THROUGH CENTRAL ND. THE
FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY
LIKELY LEADING TO A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SHORTWAVE. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS (SPC INDICATES A SLIGHT
RISK). CAM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE 00Z SPC SSEO
INDICATES VERY HIGH PROBABILITIES OF STRONG UPDRAFT HELICITY AND
WIND GUST POTENTIAL FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA
GIVEN WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. TO THE
SOUTH...NOT SURE THE EXTENT OF STORMS GIVEN THE WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPS (CAPPING) AND WEAKER FORCING. DID KEEP CHC POPS SINCE IF A
STORM OR TWO CAN DEVELOP THEY SHOULD BE SEVERE. DAMAGING HAIL AND
WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
WEAK WHICH LIMITS TORNADO POTENTIAL (ALTHOUGH STILL NOT
IMPOSSIBLE).

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AND WPC INDICATES A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING SIGNALS
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ARE WEAK...MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH
WITH MODELS SUGGESTING PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGH RAINFALL RATES (> 1 INCH/HOUR). GIVEN THESE FACTORS WILL
MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE (RW+) ACROSS THE DVL BASIN
AND NORTHERN VALLEY. TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CONCERNS. THERE WILL A BREAK EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...LEADING TO LIKELY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WILL NEED TO WAIT AND
ATTEMPT TO FIGURE OUT DETAILS GIVEN SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT
REMAIN. THE MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BY
SUNDAY EVENING...SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
SOMETIME ON SUNDAY...WHICH COULD AGAIN LEAD TO AN AREA OF STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR
THE START OF THIS PERIOD. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW
PULLS AWAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. TEMPS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH AREAS NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO HIT 60. IN GENERAL...MUCH OF THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER WITH
THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WOULD IMPACT TEMP TRENDS AND MINOR RAIN CHANCES WITH
EMBEDDED IMPULSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE THUNDER CHANCES SLIM AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT. ST/FG WILL AGAIN BE A BIG CHALLENGE. LATEST
GUIDANCE BRINGS SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
HALF OF THE FA LATE TONIGHT AND INCLUDED IN LATEST TAF SETS. BEST
T POTENTIAL TOMORROW SHOULD BE LATE AFTERNOON FIRST IN THE DVL
AREA AND INTO THE VALLEY BY EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 040833
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
333 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING THE REGION (AND MOVING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING). THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AS THE SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS LOCATED THROUGH CENTRAL ND. THE
FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY
LIKELY LEADING TO A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SHORTWAVE. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS (SPC INDICATES A SLIGHT
RISK). CAM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE 00Z SPC SSEO
INDICATES VERY HIGH PROBABILITIES OF STRONG UPDRAFT HELICITY AND
WIND GUST POTENTIAL FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA
GIVEN WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. TO THE
SOUTH...NOT SURE THE EXTENT OF STORMS GIVEN THE WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPS (CAPPING) AND WEAKER FORCING. DID KEEP CHC POPS SINCE IF A
STORM OR TWO CAN DEVELOP THEY SHOULD BE SEVERE. DAMAGING HAIL AND
WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
WEAK WHICH LIMITS TORNADO POTENTIAL (ALTHOUGH STILL NOT
IMPOSSIBLE).

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AND WPC INDICATES A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING SIGNALS
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ARE WEAK...MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH
WITH MODELS SUGGESTING PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGH RAINFALL RATES (> 1 INCH/HOUR). GIVEN THESE FACTORS WILL
MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE (RW+) ACROSS THE DVL BASIN
AND NORTHERN VALLEY. TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CONCERNS. THERE WILL A BREAK EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...LEADING TO LIKELY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WILL NEED TO WAIT AND
ATTEMPT TO FIGURE OUT DETAILS GIVEN SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT
REMAIN. THE MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BY
SUNDAY EVENING...SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
SOMETIME ON SUNDAY...WHICH COULD AGAIN LEAD TO AN AREA OF STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR
THE START OF THIS PERIOD. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW
PULLS AWAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. TEMPS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH AREAS NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO HIT 60. IN GENERAL...MUCH OF THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER WITH
THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WOULD IMPACT TEMP TRENDS AND MINOR RAIN CHANCES WITH
EMBEDDED IMPULSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE THUNDER CHANCES SLIM AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT. ST/FG WILL AGAIN BE A BIG CHALLENGE. LATEST
GUIDANCE BRINGS SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
HALF OF THE FA LATE TONIGHT AND INCLUDED IN LATEST TAF SETS. BEST
T POTENTIAL TOMORROW SHOULD BE LATE AFTERNOON FIRST IN THE DVL
AREA AND INTO THE VALLEY BY EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KBIS 040629
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
129 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A POTENT EMBEDDED S/WV LIFTS NORTH-
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

STORMS HAVE WEAKENED TO SHOWERS IN THE BISMARCK AREA. HAVE
ACCOUNTED FOR THIS THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE ENHANCED SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

AS OF THIS WRITING THE COLD FRONT RUNS FROM BOTTINEAU-MCHENRY
COUNTY...THROUGH HAZEN...TO NEAR HETTINGER.

SHOWERS AND STORMS IN MONTANA ARE FORECAST TO START PUSHING EAST
OVERNIGHT...INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THUNDERSTORMS FIRED ON THE SOUTH DAKOTA SIDE OF THE STANDING ROCK
NATION AND ADVANCED NORTH...INTO SIOUX COUNTY...THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE NATION. THE AREA OF FORMATION WAS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...IN THE AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE / LIFT.

STORMS WERE WEAKENING AS THEY PUSHED NORTH...FARTHER FROM THE
JUICIEST AIR. THEY WERE ALSO BECOMING LESS OF A SOLID LINE AND
MORE OF A BROKEN ONE. AN ISOLATED STORM HAS FORMED NORTHWEST OF
BISMARCK...ON A NORTHWESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND
ANOTHER NORTH OF FORT YATES...ON AN EASTWARD PUSHING ONE.

UPDATED THE FORECAST A WHILE BACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND WINDS VICINITY STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDE THE VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 SOUTH CENTRAL SHOULD BE COMMON
THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY A PLUME OF
MOISTURE WAS RAISING DEWPOINT ACROSS THE REGION NEAR 70 DEGREES.
SOME AWOS LOCATIONS...DEFINITELY AT OAKES AND POSSIBLY
LINTON...SEEM A BIT HIGH IN COMPARISON TO SURROUNDING
OBSERVATIONS. BELIEVE HEAD INDEX WILL BE AROUND 100 FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON THEN FALL IN THE EVENING AS A SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND DRYER AIR FILTERS IN. WILL NOT ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

TONIGHT A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LINE UP WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS WILL BE PRETTY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND GOOD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
POSSIBLY IN THE AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE LONG TERM ARE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR LEE TROUGHING AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING ALONG CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SUNDAY...SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR (EAST CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA) FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE INDICATING
SEVERAL THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A RATHER WINDY SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS EXPECTED AS
THE LOW WRAPS UP AND PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VERY
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERN TERMINALS
WILL SEE -SHRA AND VCTS NOW THROUGH MID MORNING...SPREADING EAST
MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 040629
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
129 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A POTENT EMBEDDED S/WV LIFTS NORTH-
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

STORMS HAVE WEAKENED TO SHOWERS IN THE BISMARCK AREA. HAVE
ACCOUNTED FOR THIS THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE ENHANCED SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

AS OF THIS WRITING THE COLD FRONT RUNS FROM BOTTINEAU-MCHENRY
COUNTY...THROUGH HAZEN...TO NEAR HETTINGER.

SHOWERS AND STORMS IN MONTANA ARE FORECAST TO START PUSHING EAST
OVERNIGHT...INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THUNDERSTORMS FIRED ON THE SOUTH DAKOTA SIDE OF THE STANDING ROCK
NATION AND ADVANCED NORTH...INTO SIOUX COUNTY...THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE NATION. THE AREA OF FORMATION WAS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...IN THE AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE / LIFT.

STORMS WERE WEAKENING AS THEY PUSHED NORTH...FARTHER FROM THE
JUICIEST AIR. THEY WERE ALSO BECOMING LESS OF A SOLID LINE AND
MORE OF A BROKEN ONE. AN ISOLATED STORM HAS FORMED NORTHWEST OF
BISMARCK...ON A NORTHWESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND
ANOTHER NORTH OF FORT YATES...ON AN EASTWARD PUSHING ONE.

UPDATED THE FORECAST A WHILE BACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND WINDS VICINITY STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDE THE VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 SOUTH CENTRAL SHOULD BE COMMON
THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY A PLUME OF
MOISTURE WAS RAISING DEWPOINT ACROSS THE REGION NEAR 70 DEGREES.
SOME AWOS LOCATIONS...DEFINITELY AT OAKES AND POSSIBLY
LINTON...SEEM A BIT HIGH IN COMPARISON TO SURROUNDING
OBSERVATIONS. BELIEVE HEAD INDEX WILL BE AROUND 100 FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON THEN FALL IN THE EVENING AS A SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND DRYER AIR FILTERS IN. WILL NOT ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

TONIGHT A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LINE UP WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS WILL BE PRETTY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND GOOD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
POSSIBLY IN THE AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE LONG TERM ARE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR LEE TROUGHING AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING ALONG CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SUNDAY...SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR (EAST CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA) FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE INDICATING
SEVERAL THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A RATHER WINDY SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS EXPECTED AS
THE LOW WRAPS UP AND PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VERY
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERN TERMINALS
WILL SEE -SHRA AND VCTS NOW THROUGH MID MORNING...SPREADING EAST
MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 040629
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
129 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A POTENT EMBEDDED S/WV LIFTS NORTH-
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

STORMS HAVE WEAKENED TO SHOWERS IN THE BISMARCK AREA. HAVE
ACCOUNTED FOR THIS THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE ENHANCED SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

AS OF THIS WRITING THE COLD FRONT RUNS FROM BOTTINEAU-MCHENRY
COUNTY...THROUGH HAZEN...TO NEAR HETTINGER.

SHOWERS AND STORMS IN MONTANA ARE FORECAST TO START PUSHING EAST
OVERNIGHT...INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THUNDERSTORMS FIRED ON THE SOUTH DAKOTA SIDE OF THE STANDING ROCK
NATION AND ADVANCED NORTH...INTO SIOUX COUNTY...THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE NATION. THE AREA OF FORMATION WAS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...IN THE AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE / LIFT.

STORMS WERE WEAKENING AS THEY PUSHED NORTH...FARTHER FROM THE
JUICIEST AIR. THEY WERE ALSO BECOMING LESS OF A SOLID LINE AND
MORE OF A BROKEN ONE. AN ISOLATED STORM HAS FORMED NORTHWEST OF
BISMARCK...ON A NORTHWESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND
ANOTHER NORTH OF FORT YATES...ON AN EASTWARD PUSHING ONE.

UPDATED THE FORECAST A WHILE BACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND WINDS VICINITY STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDE THE VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 SOUTH CENTRAL SHOULD BE COMMON
THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY A PLUME OF
MOISTURE WAS RAISING DEWPOINT ACROSS THE REGION NEAR 70 DEGREES.
SOME AWOS LOCATIONS...DEFINITELY AT OAKES AND POSSIBLY
LINTON...SEEM A BIT HIGH IN COMPARISON TO SURROUNDING
OBSERVATIONS. BELIEVE HEAD INDEX WILL BE AROUND 100 FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON THEN FALL IN THE EVENING AS A SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND DRYER AIR FILTERS IN. WILL NOT ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

TONIGHT A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LINE UP WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS WILL BE PRETTY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND GOOD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
POSSIBLY IN THE AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE LONG TERM ARE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR LEE TROUGHING AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING ALONG CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SUNDAY...SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR (EAST CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA) FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE INDICATING
SEVERAL THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A RATHER WINDY SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS EXPECTED AS
THE LOW WRAPS UP AND PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VERY
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERN TERMINALS
WILL SEE -SHRA AND VCTS NOW THROUGH MID MORNING...SPREADING EAST
MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 040629
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
129 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A POTENT EMBEDDED S/WV LIFTS NORTH-
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

STORMS HAVE WEAKENED TO SHOWERS IN THE BISMARCK AREA. HAVE
ACCOUNTED FOR THIS THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE ENHANCED SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

AS OF THIS WRITING THE COLD FRONT RUNS FROM BOTTINEAU-MCHENRY
COUNTY...THROUGH HAZEN...TO NEAR HETTINGER.

SHOWERS AND STORMS IN MONTANA ARE FORECAST TO START PUSHING EAST
OVERNIGHT...INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THUNDERSTORMS FIRED ON THE SOUTH DAKOTA SIDE OF THE STANDING ROCK
NATION AND ADVANCED NORTH...INTO SIOUX COUNTY...THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE NATION. THE AREA OF FORMATION WAS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...IN THE AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE / LIFT.

STORMS WERE WEAKENING AS THEY PUSHED NORTH...FARTHER FROM THE
JUICIEST AIR. THEY WERE ALSO BECOMING LESS OF A SOLID LINE AND
MORE OF A BROKEN ONE. AN ISOLATED STORM HAS FORMED NORTHWEST OF
BISMARCK...ON A NORTHWESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND
ANOTHER NORTH OF FORT YATES...ON AN EASTWARD PUSHING ONE.

UPDATED THE FORECAST A WHILE BACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND WINDS VICINITY STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDE THE VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 SOUTH CENTRAL SHOULD BE COMMON
THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY A PLUME OF
MOISTURE WAS RAISING DEWPOINT ACROSS THE REGION NEAR 70 DEGREES.
SOME AWOS LOCATIONS...DEFINITELY AT OAKES AND POSSIBLY
LINTON...SEEM A BIT HIGH IN COMPARISON TO SURROUNDING
OBSERVATIONS. BELIEVE HEAD INDEX WILL BE AROUND 100 FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON THEN FALL IN THE EVENING AS A SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND DRYER AIR FILTERS IN. WILL NOT ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

TONIGHT A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LINE UP WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS WILL BE PRETTY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND GOOD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
POSSIBLY IN THE AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE LONG TERM ARE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR LEE TROUGHING AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING ALONG CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SUNDAY...SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR (EAST CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA) FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE INDICATING
SEVERAL THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A RATHER WINDY SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS EXPECTED AS
THE LOW WRAPS UP AND PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VERY
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERN TERMINALS
WILL SEE -SHRA AND VCTS NOW THROUGH MID MORNING...SPREADING EAST
MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH




000
FXUS63 KFGF 040442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1142 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MADE MINOR ISOLD POP ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS THE FAR NW AND NE FA WITH
CONTINUED WEAK CONVECTION. EXPANDED SOME FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
DVL BASIN BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

LTG STRIKES HAVE RECENTLY FORMED ALONG BAND OF WEAK ECHOES OVER
THE FAR NW FA SO WILL INTRODUCE SOME ISOLD POPS REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. EARLIER ECHOES HAVE WEAKENED OVER NORTHERN VALLEY INTO NW
MN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

HAVE ADDED ISOLD T THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN VALLEY REGION FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. GETTING A FEW LTG STRIKES IN SMALL
CLUSTER OF MAINLY ACCAS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HOT AND HUMID AIR CONTINUE OVER THE
CWA...WITH MANY LOCATIONS SHOWING DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF NEAR 5000 J/KG...BUT WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD AND 700MB TEMPS IN THE 14 C RANGE...A STOUT CAP IS
IN PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO GET GOING ALONG THE
SFC TROUGH AXIS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT CU IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE. SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION
ENTERING THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MANY
HAVE BEEN OVERDOING CONVECTION AND HAVE STORMS BREAKING OUT OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS OF 18Z TODAY WHICH DIDN`T HAPPEN. WITH THE
CAP AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING...WILL LEAVE THIS
EVENING DRY. THINK THAT TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH A
BIT OF STRATUS AND MAYBE PATCHY FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVE IN AND
EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA UP TOWARDS THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH CAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG SHOULD SET OFF SOME PRETTY STRONG
CONVECTION BY MID AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE EARLY ON BUT IMPROVE TO NEAR 40 KTS IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK SO INCLUDED SOME MENTION OF SEVERE FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT ON FRIDAY AND THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT TO MORE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. THINK THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOTS OF
CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE COMES
THROUGH...SO HAVE LIKELY POPS GOING. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DOES
NOT ENTER WESTERN ND UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH MUCH
OF THE PRECIP SHIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLING OFF WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP IN THE AREA SO KEPT HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE 70S TO
LOW 80S.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER AS 500MB LOW NORTH OF THE CWA LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO BE EXITING THE EAST EARLY MONDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN. THEREAFTER
A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH A SLGT CHC POP IN THE FAR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 15C WILL SEE MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
MONDAY TO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE THUNDER CHANCES SLIM AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT. ST/FG WILL AGAIN BE A BIG CHALLENGE. LATEST
GUIDANCE BRINGS SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
HALF OF THE FA LATE TONIGHT AND INCLUDED IN LATEST TAF SETS. BEST
T POTENTIAL TOMORROW SHOULD BE LATE AFTERNOON FIRST IN THE DVL
AREA AND INTO THE VALLEY BY EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 040442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1142 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MADE MINOR ISOLD POP ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS THE FAR NW AND NE FA WITH
CONTINUED WEAK CONVECTION. EXPANDED SOME FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
DVL BASIN BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

LTG STRIKES HAVE RECENTLY FORMED ALONG BAND OF WEAK ECHOES OVER
THE FAR NW FA SO WILL INTRODUCE SOME ISOLD POPS REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. EARLIER ECHOES HAVE WEAKENED OVER NORTHERN VALLEY INTO NW
MN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

HAVE ADDED ISOLD T THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN VALLEY REGION FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. GETTING A FEW LTG STRIKES IN SMALL
CLUSTER OF MAINLY ACCAS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HOT AND HUMID AIR CONTINUE OVER THE
CWA...WITH MANY LOCATIONS SHOWING DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF NEAR 5000 J/KG...BUT WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD AND 700MB TEMPS IN THE 14 C RANGE...A STOUT CAP IS
IN PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO GET GOING ALONG THE
SFC TROUGH AXIS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT CU IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE. SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION
ENTERING THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MANY
HAVE BEEN OVERDOING CONVECTION AND HAVE STORMS BREAKING OUT OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS OF 18Z TODAY WHICH DIDN`T HAPPEN. WITH THE
CAP AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING...WILL LEAVE THIS
EVENING DRY. THINK THAT TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH A
BIT OF STRATUS AND MAYBE PATCHY FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVE IN AND
EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA UP TOWARDS THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH CAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG SHOULD SET OFF SOME PRETTY STRONG
CONVECTION BY MID AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE EARLY ON BUT IMPROVE TO NEAR 40 KTS IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK SO INCLUDED SOME MENTION OF SEVERE FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT ON FRIDAY AND THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT TO MORE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. THINK THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOTS OF
CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE COMES
THROUGH...SO HAVE LIKELY POPS GOING. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DOES
NOT ENTER WESTERN ND UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH MUCH
OF THE PRECIP SHIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLING OFF WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP IN THE AREA SO KEPT HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE 70S TO
LOW 80S.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER AS 500MB LOW NORTH OF THE CWA LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO BE EXITING THE EAST EARLY MONDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN. THEREAFTER
A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH A SLGT CHC POP IN THE FAR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 15C WILL SEE MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
MONDAY TO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE THUNDER CHANCES SLIM AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT. ST/FG WILL AGAIN BE A BIG CHALLENGE. LATEST
GUIDANCE BRINGS SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
HALF OF THE FA LATE TONIGHT AND INCLUDED IN LATEST TAF SETS. BEST
T POTENTIAL TOMORROW SHOULD BE LATE AFTERNOON FIRST IN THE DVL
AREA AND INTO THE VALLEY BY EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KBIS 040345
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1045 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

STORMS HAVE WEAKENED TO SHOWERS IN THE BISMARCK AREA. HAVE
ACCOUNTED FOR THIS THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE ENHANCED SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

AS OF THIS WRITING THE COLD FRONT RUNS FROM BOTTINEAU-MCHENRY
COUNTY...THROUGH HAZEN...TO NEAR HETTINGER.

SHOWERS AND STORMS IN MONTANA ARE FORECAST TO START PUSHING EAST
OVERNIGHT...INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THUNDERSTORMS FIRED ON THE SOUTH DAKOTA SIDE OF THE STANDING ROCK
NATION AND ADVANCED NORTH...INTO SIOUX COUNTY...THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE NATION. THE AREA OF FORMATION WAS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...IN THE AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE / LIFT.

STORMS WERE WEAKENING AS THEY PUSHED NORTH...FARTHER FROM THE
JUICIEST AIR. THEY WERE ALSO BECOMING LESS OF A SOLID LINE AND
MORE OF A BROKEN ONE. AN ISOLATED STORM HAS FORMED NORTHWEST OF
BISMARCK...ON A NORTHWESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND
ANOTHER NORTH OF FORT YATES...ON AN EASTWARD PUSHING ONE.

UPDATED THE FORECAST A WHILE BACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND WINDS VICINITY STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDE THE VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 SOUTH CENTRAL SHOULD BE COMMON
THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY A PLUME OF
MOISTURE WAS RAISING DEWPOINT ACROSS THE REGION NEAR 70 DEGREES.
SOME AWOS LOCATIONS...DEFINITELY AT OAKES AND POSSIBLY
LINTON...SEEM A BIT HIGH IN COMPARISON TO SURROUNDING
OBSERVATIONS. BELIEVE HEAD INDEX WILL BE AROUND 100 FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON THEN FALL IN THE EVENING AS A SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND DRYER AIR FILTERS IN. WILL NOT ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

TONIGHT A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LINE UP WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS WILL BE PRETTY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND GOOD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
POSSIBLY IN THE AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE LONG TERM ARE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR LEE TROUGHING AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING ALONG CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SUNDAY...SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR (EAST CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA) FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE INDICATING
SEVERAL THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A RATHER WINDY SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS EXPECTED AS
THE LOW WRAPS UP AND PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ISOLATED -TSRA IN THE KBIS AREA TO START THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT FROM KMOT TO JUST WEST OF KBIS WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST.
IT WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS OVERNIGHT. ENERGY MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT WILL TRIGGER -SHRA / -TSRA ACROSS WESTERN SITES. FOR
FRIDAY...WITH THE WESTERN ENERGY...AND THE FRONT...EXPECT SCATTERED
-SHRA / -TSRA EXCEPT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE STRONGER...EVEN SEVERE...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FINALLY...PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY DAYBREAK IN RIVER VALLEYS EAST.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JPM




000
FXUS63 KBIS 040345
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1045 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

STORMS HAVE WEAKENED TO SHOWERS IN THE BISMARCK AREA. HAVE
ACCOUNTED FOR THIS THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE ENHANCED SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

AS OF THIS WRITING THE COLD FRONT RUNS FROM BOTTINEAU-MCHENRY
COUNTY...THROUGH HAZEN...TO NEAR HETTINGER.

SHOWERS AND STORMS IN MONTANA ARE FORECAST TO START PUSHING EAST
OVERNIGHT...INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THUNDERSTORMS FIRED ON THE SOUTH DAKOTA SIDE OF THE STANDING ROCK
NATION AND ADVANCED NORTH...INTO SIOUX COUNTY...THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE NATION. THE AREA OF FORMATION WAS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...IN THE AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE / LIFT.

STORMS WERE WEAKENING AS THEY PUSHED NORTH...FARTHER FROM THE
JUICIEST AIR. THEY WERE ALSO BECOMING LESS OF A SOLID LINE AND
MORE OF A BROKEN ONE. AN ISOLATED STORM HAS FORMED NORTHWEST OF
BISMARCK...ON A NORTHWESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND
ANOTHER NORTH OF FORT YATES...ON AN EASTWARD PUSHING ONE.

UPDATED THE FORECAST A WHILE BACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND WINDS VICINITY STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDE THE VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 SOUTH CENTRAL SHOULD BE COMMON
THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY A PLUME OF
MOISTURE WAS RAISING DEWPOINT ACROSS THE REGION NEAR 70 DEGREES.
SOME AWOS LOCATIONS...DEFINITELY AT OAKES AND POSSIBLY
LINTON...SEEM A BIT HIGH IN COMPARISON TO SURROUNDING
OBSERVATIONS. BELIEVE HEAD INDEX WILL BE AROUND 100 FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON THEN FALL IN THE EVENING AS A SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND DRYER AIR FILTERS IN. WILL NOT ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

TONIGHT A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LINE UP WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS WILL BE PRETTY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND GOOD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
POSSIBLY IN THE AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE LONG TERM ARE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR LEE TROUGHING AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING ALONG CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SUNDAY...SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR (EAST CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA) FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE INDICATING
SEVERAL THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A RATHER WINDY SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS EXPECTED AS
THE LOW WRAPS UP AND PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ISOLATED -TSRA IN THE KBIS AREA TO START THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT FROM KMOT TO JUST WEST OF KBIS WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST.
IT WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS OVERNIGHT. ENERGY MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT WILL TRIGGER -SHRA / -TSRA ACROSS WESTERN SITES. FOR
FRIDAY...WITH THE WESTERN ENERGY...AND THE FRONT...EXPECT SCATTERED
-SHRA / -TSRA EXCEPT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE STRONGER...EVEN SEVERE...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FINALLY...PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY DAYBREAK IN RIVER VALLEYS EAST.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JPM



000
FXUS63 KFGF 040254
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
954 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

LTG STRIKES HAVE RECENTLY FORMED ALONG BAND OF WEAK ECHOES OVER
THE FAR NW FA SO WILL INTRODUCE SOME ISOLD POPS REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. EARLIER ECHOES HAVE WEAKENED OVER NORTHERN VALLEY INTO NW
MN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

HAVE ADDED ISOLD T THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN VALLEY REGION FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. GETTING A FEW LTG STRIKES IN SMALL
CLUSTER OF MAINLY ACCAS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HOT AND HUMID AIR CONTINUE OVER THE
CWA...WITH MANY LOCATIONS SHOWING DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF NEAR 5000 J/KG...BUT WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD AND 700MB TEMPS IN THE 14 C RANGE...A STOUT CAP IS
IN PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO GET GOING ALONG THE
SFC TROUGH AXIS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT CU IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE. SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION
ENTERING THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MANY
HAVE BEEN OVERDOING CONVECTION AND HAVE STORMS BREAKING OUT OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS OF 18Z TODAY WHICH DIDN`T HAPPEN. WITH THE
CAP AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING...WILL LEAVE THIS
EVENING DRY. THINK THAT TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH A
BIT OF STRATUS AND MAYBE PATCHY FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVE IN AND
EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA UP TOWARDS THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH CAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG SHOULD SET OFF SOME PRETTY STRONG
CONVECTION BY MID AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE EARLY ON BUT IMPROVE TO NEAR 40 KTS IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK SO INCLUDED SOME MENTION OF SEVERE FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT ON FRIDAY AND THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT TO MORE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. THINK THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOTS OF
CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE COMES
THROUGH...SO HAVE LIKELY POPS GOING. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DOES
NOT ENTER WESTERN ND UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH MUCH
OF THE PRECIP SHIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLING OFF WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP IN THE AREA SO KEPT HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE 70S TO
LOW 80S.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER AS 500MB LOW NORTH OF THE CWA LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO BE EXITING THE EAST EARLY MONDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN. THEREAFTER
A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH A SLGT CHC POP IN THE FAR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 15C WILL SEE MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
MONDAY TO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

T DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN VALLEY HOWEVER SO ISOLD DID
NOT MENTION IN ANY TAFS. OTHERWISE CHALLENGE AGAIN TONIGHT WILL
BE ST/FG DEVELOPMENT AS REGION REMAINS IN VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS. GETTING MIXED SIGNALS FROM NEAR TERM GUIDANCE ON
POTENTIAL. DID NOT BRING IN ANY IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO GUIDANCE CLOSELY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 040254
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
954 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

LTG STRIKES HAVE RECENTLY FORMED ALONG BAND OF WEAK ECHOES OVER
THE FAR NW FA SO WILL INTRODUCE SOME ISOLD POPS REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. EARLIER ECHOES HAVE WEAKENED OVER NORTHERN VALLEY INTO NW
MN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

HAVE ADDED ISOLD T THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN VALLEY REGION FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. GETTING A FEW LTG STRIKES IN SMALL
CLUSTER OF MAINLY ACCAS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HOT AND HUMID AIR CONTINUE OVER THE
CWA...WITH MANY LOCATIONS SHOWING DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF NEAR 5000 J/KG...BUT WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD AND 700MB TEMPS IN THE 14 C RANGE...A STOUT CAP IS
IN PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO GET GOING ALONG THE
SFC TROUGH AXIS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT CU IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE. SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION
ENTERING THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MANY
HAVE BEEN OVERDOING CONVECTION AND HAVE STORMS BREAKING OUT OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS OF 18Z TODAY WHICH DIDN`T HAPPEN. WITH THE
CAP AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING...WILL LEAVE THIS
EVENING DRY. THINK THAT TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH A
BIT OF STRATUS AND MAYBE PATCHY FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVE IN AND
EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA UP TOWARDS THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH CAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG SHOULD SET OFF SOME PRETTY STRONG
CONVECTION BY MID AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE EARLY ON BUT IMPROVE TO NEAR 40 KTS IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK SO INCLUDED SOME MENTION OF SEVERE FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT ON FRIDAY AND THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT TO MORE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. THINK THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOTS OF
CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE COMES
THROUGH...SO HAVE LIKELY POPS GOING. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DOES
NOT ENTER WESTERN ND UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH MUCH
OF THE PRECIP SHIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLING OFF WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP IN THE AREA SO KEPT HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE 70S TO
LOW 80S.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER AS 500MB LOW NORTH OF THE CWA LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO BE EXITING THE EAST EARLY MONDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN. THEREAFTER
A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH A SLGT CHC POP IN THE FAR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 15C WILL SEE MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
MONDAY TO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

T DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN VALLEY HOWEVER SO ISOLD DID
NOT MENTION IN ANY TAFS. OTHERWISE CHALLENGE AGAIN TONIGHT WILL
BE ST/FG DEVELOPMENT AS REGION REMAINS IN VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS. GETTING MIXED SIGNALS FROM NEAR TERM GUIDANCE ON
POTENTIAL. DID NOT BRING IN ANY IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO GUIDANCE CLOSELY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 040254
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
954 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

LTG STRIKES HAVE RECENTLY FORMED ALONG BAND OF WEAK ECHOES OVER
THE FAR NW FA SO WILL INTRODUCE SOME ISOLD POPS REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. EARLIER ECHOES HAVE WEAKENED OVER NORTHERN VALLEY INTO NW
MN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

HAVE ADDED ISOLD T THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN VALLEY REGION FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. GETTING A FEW LTG STRIKES IN SMALL
CLUSTER OF MAINLY ACCAS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HOT AND HUMID AIR CONTINUE OVER THE
CWA...WITH MANY LOCATIONS SHOWING DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF NEAR 5000 J/KG...BUT WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD AND 700MB TEMPS IN THE 14 C RANGE...A STOUT CAP IS
IN PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO GET GOING ALONG THE
SFC TROUGH AXIS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT CU IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE. SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION
ENTERING THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MANY
HAVE BEEN OVERDOING CONVECTION AND HAVE STORMS BREAKING OUT OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS OF 18Z TODAY WHICH DIDN`T HAPPEN. WITH THE
CAP AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING...WILL LEAVE THIS
EVENING DRY. THINK THAT TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH A
BIT OF STRATUS AND MAYBE PATCHY FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVE IN AND
EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA UP TOWARDS THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH CAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG SHOULD SET OFF SOME PRETTY STRONG
CONVECTION BY MID AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE EARLY ON BUT IMPROVE TO NEAR 40 KTS IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK SO INCLUDED SOME MENTION OF SEVERE FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT ON FRIDAY AND THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT TO MORE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. THINK THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOTS OF
CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE COMES
THROUGH...SO HAVE LIKELY POPS GOING. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DOES
NOT ENTER WESTERN ND UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH MUCH
OF THE PRECIP SHIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLING OFF WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP IN THE AREA SO KEPT HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE 70S TO
LOW 80S.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER AS 500MB LOW NORTH OF THE CWA LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO BE EXITING THE EAST EARLY MONDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN. THEREAFTER
A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH A SLGT CHC POP IN THE FAR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 15C WILL SEE MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
MONDAY TO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

T DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN VALLEY HOWEVER SO ISOLD DID
NOT MENTION IN ANY TAFS. OTHERWISE CHALLENGE AGAIN TONIGHT WILL
BE ST/FG DEVELOPMENT AS REGION REMAINS IN VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS. GETTING MIXED SIGNALS FROM NEAR TERM GUIDANCE ON
POTENTIAL. DID NOT BRING IN ANY IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO GUIDANCE CLOSELY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 040254
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
954 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

LTG STRIKES HAVE RECENTLY FORMED ALONG BAND OF WEAK ECHOES OVER
THE FAR NW FA SO WILL INTRODUCE SOME ISOLD POPS REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. EARLIER ECHOES HAVE WEAKENED OVER NORTHERN VALLEY INTO NW
MN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

HAVE ADDED ISOLD T THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN VALLEY REGION FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. GETTING A FEW LTG STRIKES IN SMALL
CLUSTER OF MAINLY ACCAS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HOT AND HUMID AIR CONTINUE OVER THE
CWA...WITH MANY LOCATIONS SHOWING DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF NEAR 5000 J/KG...BUT WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD AND 700MB TEMPS IN THE 14 C RANGE...A STOUT CAP IS
IN PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO GET GOING ALONG THE
SFC TROUGH AXIS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT CU IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE. SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION
ENTERING THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MANY
HAVE BEEN OVERDOING CONVECTION AND HAVE STORMS BREAKING OUT OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS OF 18Z TODAY WHICH DIDN`T HAPPEN. WITH THE
CAP AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING...WILL LEAVE THIS
EVENING DRY. THINK THAT TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH A
BIT OF STRATUS AND MAYBE PATCHY FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVE IN AND
EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA UP TOWARDS THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH CAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG SHOULD SET OFF SOME PRETTY STRONG
CONVECTION BY MID AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE EARLY ON BUT IMPROVE TO NEAR 40 KTS IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK SO INCLUDED SOME MENTION OF SEVERE FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT ON FRIDAY AND THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT TO MORE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. THINK THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOTS OF
CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE COMES
THROUGH...SO HAVE LIKELY POPS GOING. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DOES
NOT ENTER WESTERN ND UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH MUCH
OF THE PRECIP SHIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLING OFF WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP IN THE AREA SO KEPT HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE 70S TO
LOW 80S.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER AS 500MB LOW NORTH OF THE CWA LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO BE EXITING THE EAST EARLY MONDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN. THEREAFTER
A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH A SLGT CHC POP IN THE FAR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 15C WILL SEE MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
MONDAY TO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

T DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN VALLEY HOWEVER SO ISOLD DID
NOT MENTION IN ANY TAFS. OTHERWISE CHALLENGE AGAIN TONIGHT WILL
BE ST/FG DEVELOPMENT AS REGION REMAINS IN VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS. GETTING MIXED SIGNALS FROM NEAR TERM GUIDANCE ON
POTENTIAL. DID NOT BRING IN ANY IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO GUIDANCE CLOSELY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KBIS 040027
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
727 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THUNDERSTORMS FIRED ON THE SOUTH DAKOTA SIDE OF THE STANDING ROCK
NATION AND ADVANCED NORTH...INTO SIOUX COUNTY...THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE NATION. THE AREA OF FORMATION WAS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...IN THE AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE / LIFT.

STORMS WERE WEAKENING AS THEY PUSHED NORTH...FARTHER FROM THE
JUICIEST AIR. THEY WERE ALSO BECOMING LESS OF A SOLID LINE AND
MORE OF A BROKEN ONE. AN ISOLATED STORM HAS FORMED NORTHWEST OF
BISMARCK...ON A NORTHWESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND
ANOTHER NORTH OF FORT YATES...ON AN EASTWARD PUSHING ONE.

UPDATED THE FORECAST A WHILE BACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND WINDS VICINITY STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDE THE VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 SOUTH CENTRAL SHOULD BE COMMON
THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY A PLUME OF
MOISTURE WAS RAISING DEWPOINT ACROSS THE REGION NEAR 70 DEGREES.
SOME AWOS LOCATIONS...DEFINITELY AT OAKES AND POSSIBLY
LINTON...SEEM A BIT HIGH IN COMPARISON TO SURROUNDING
OBSERVATIONS. BELIEVE HEAD INDEX WILL BE AROUND 100 FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON THEN FALL IN THE EVENING AS A SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND DRYER AIR FILTERS IN. WILL NOT ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

TONIGHT A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LINE UP WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS WILL BE PRETTY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND GOOD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
POSSIBLY IN THE AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE LONG TERM ARE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR LEE TROUGHING AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING ALONG CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SUNDAY...SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR (EAST CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA) FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE INDICATING
SEVERAL THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A RATHER WINDY SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS EXPECTED AS
THE LOW WRAPS UP AND PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ISOLATED -TSRA IN THE KBIS AREA TO START THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT FROM KMOT TO JUST WEST OF KBIS WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST.
IT WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS OVERNIGHT. ENERGY MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT WILL TRIGGER -SHRA / -TSRA ACROSS WESTERN SITES. FOR
FRIDAY...WITH THE WESTERN ENERGY...AND THE FRONT...EXPECT SCATTERED
-SHRA / -TSRA EXCEPT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE STRONGER...EVEN SEVERE...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FINALLY...PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY DAYBREAK IN RIVER VALLEYS EAST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JPM




000
FXUS63 KBIS 040027
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
727 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THUNDERSTORMS FIRED ON THE SOUTH DAKOTA SIDE OF THE STANDING ROCK
NATION AND ADVANCED NORTH...INTO SIOUX COUNTY...THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE NATION. THE AREA OF FORMATION WAS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...IN THE AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE / LIFT.

STORMS WERE WEAKENING AS THEY PUSHED NORTH...FARTHER FROM THE
JUICIEST AIR. THEY WERE ALSO BECOMING LESS OF A SOLID LINE AND
MORE OF A BROKEN ONE. AN ISOLATED STORM HAS FORMED NORTHWEST OF
BISMARCK...ON A NORTHWESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND
ANOTHER NORTH OF FORT YATES...ON AN EASTWARD PUSHING ONE.

UPDATED THE FORECAST A WHILE BACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND WINDS VICINITY STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDE THE VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 SOUTH CENTRAL SHOULD BE COMMON
THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY A PLUME OF
MOISTURE WAS RAISING DEWPOINT ACROSS THE REGION NEAR 70 DEGREES.
SOME AWOS LOCATIONS...DEFINITELY AT OAKES AND POSSIBLY
LINTON...SEEM A BIT HIGH IN COMPARISON TO SURROUNDING
OBSERVATIONS. BELIEVE HEAD INDEX WILL BE AROUND 100 FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON THEN FALL IN THE EVENING AS A SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND DRYER AIR FILTERS IN. WILL NOT ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

TONIGHT A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LINE UP WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS WILL BE PRETTY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND GOOD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
POSSIBLY IN THE AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE LONG TERM ARE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR LEE TROUGHING AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING ALONG CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SUNDAY...SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR (EAST CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA) FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE INDICATING
SEVERAL THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A RATHER WINDY SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS EXPECTED AS
THE LOW WRAPS UP AND PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ISOLATED -TSRA IN THE KBIS AREA TO START THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT FROM KMOT TO JUST WEST OF KBIS WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST.
IT WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS OVERNIGHT. ENERGY MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT WILL TRIGGER -SHRA / -TSRA ACROSS WESTERN SITES. FOR
FRIDAY...WITH THE WESTERN ENERGY...AND THE FRONT...EXPECT SCATTERED
-SHRA / -TSRA EXCEPT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE STRONGER...EVEN SEVERE...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FINALLY...PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY DAYBREAK IN RIVER VALLEYS EAST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JPM



000
FXUS63 KBIS 040027
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
727 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THUNDERSTORMS FIRED ON THE SOUTH DAKOTA SIDE OF THE STANDING ROCK
NATION AND ADVANCED NORTH...INTO SIOUX COUNTY...THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE NATION. THE AREA OF FORMATION WAS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...IN THE AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE / LIFT.

STORMS WERE WEAKENING AS THEY PUSHED NORTH...FARTHER FROM THE
JUICIEST AIR. THEY WERE ALSO BECOMING LESS OF A SOLID LINE AND
MORE OF A BROKEN ONE. AN ISOLATED STORM HAS FORMED NORTHWEST OF
BISMARCK...ON A NORTHWESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND
ANOTHER NORTH OF FORT YATES...ON AN EASTWARD PUSHING ONE.

UPDATED THE FORECAST A WHILE BACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND WINDS VICINITY STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDE THE VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 SOUTH CENTRAL SHOULD BE COMMON
THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY A PLUME OF
MOISTURE WAS RAISING DEWPOINT ACROSS THE REGION NEAR 70 DEGREES.
SOME AWOS LOCATIONS...DEFINITELY AT OAKES AND POSSIBLY
LINTON...SEEM A BIT HIGH IN COMPARISON TO SURROUNDING
OBSERVATIONS. BELIEVE HEAD INDEX WILL BE AROUND 100 FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON THEN FALL IN THE EVENING AS A SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND DRYER AIR FILTERS IN. WILL NOT ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

TONIGHT A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LINE UP WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS WILL BE PRETTY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND GOOD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
POSSIBLY IN THE AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE LONG TERM ARE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR LEE TROUGHING AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING ALONG CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SUNDAY...SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR (EAST CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA) FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE INDICATING
SEVERAL THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A RATHER WINDY SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS EXPECTED AS
THE LOW WRAPS UP AND PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ISOLATED -TSRA IN THE KBIS AREA TO START THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT FROM KMOT TO JUST WEST OF KBIS WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST.
IT WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS OVERNIGHT. ENERGY MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT WILL TRIGGER -SHRA / -TSRA ACROSS WESTERN SITES. FOR
FRIDAY...WITH THE WESTERN ENERGY...AND THE FRONT...EXPECT SCATTERED
-SHRA / -TSRA EXCEPT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE STRONGER...EVEN SEVERE...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FINALLY...PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY DAYBREAK IN RIVER VALLEYS EAST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JPM




000
FXUS63 KBIS 040027
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
727 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THUNDERSTORMS FIRED ON THE SOUTH DAKOTA SIDE OF THE STANDING ROCK
NATION AND ADVANCED NORTH...INTO SIOUX COUNTY...THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE NATION. THE AREA OF FORMATION WAS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...IN THE AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE / LIFT.

STORMS WERE WEAKENING AS THEY PUSHED NORTH...FARTHER FROM THE
JUICIEST AIR. THEY WERE ALSO BECOMING LESS OF A SOLID LINE AND
MORE OF A BROKEN ONE. AN ISOLATED STORM HAS FORMED NORTHWEST OF
BISMARCK...ON A NORTHWESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND
ANOTHER NORTH OF FORT YATES...ON AN EASTWARD PUSHING ONE.

UPDATED THE FORECAST A WHILE BACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND WINDS VICINITY STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDE THE VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 SOUTH CENTRAL SHOULD BE COMMON
THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY A PLUME OF
MOISTURE WAS RAISING DEWPOINT ACROSS THE REGION NEAR 70 DEGREES.
SOME AWOS LOCATIONS...DEFINITELY AT OAKES AND POSSIBLY
LINTON...SEEM A BIT HIGH IN COMPARISON TO SURROUNDING
OBSERVATIONS. BELIEVE HEAD INDEX WILL BE AROUND 100 FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON THEN FALL IN THE EVENING AS A SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND DRYER AIR FILTERS IN. WILL NOT ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

TONIGHT A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LINE UP WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS WILL BE PRETTY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND GOOD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
POSSIBLY IN THE AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE LONG TERM ARE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR LEE TROUGHING AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING ALONG CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SUNDAY...SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR (EAST CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA) FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE INDICATING
SEVERAL THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A RATHER WINDY SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS EXPECTED AS
THE LOW WRAPS UP AND PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ISOLATED -TSRA IN THE KBIS AREA TO START THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT FROM KMOT TO JUST WEST OF KBIS WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST.
IT WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS OVERNIGHT. ENERGY MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT WILL TRIGGER -SHRA / -TSRA ACROSS WESTERN SITES. FOR
FRIDAY...WITH THE WESTERN ENERGY...AND THE FRONT...EXPECT SCATTERED
-SHRA / -TSRA EXCEPT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE STRONGER...EVEN SEVERE...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FINALLY...PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY DAYBREAK IN RIVER VALLEYS EAST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JPM



000
FXUS63 KFGF 032345
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

HAVE ADDED ISOLD T THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN VALLEY REGION FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. GETTING A FEW LTG STRIKES IN SMALL
CLUSTER OF MAINLY ACCAS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HOT AND HUMID AIR CONTINUE OVER THE
CWA...WITH MANY LOCATIONS SHOWING DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF NEAR 5000 J/KG...BUT WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD AND 700MB TEMPS IN THE 14 C RANGE...A STOUT CAP IS
IN PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO GET GOING ALONG THE
SFC TROUGH AXIS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT CU IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE. SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION
ENTERING THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MANY
HAVE BEEN OVERDOING CONVECTION AND HAVE STORMS BREAKING OUT OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS OF 18Z TODAY WHICH DIDN`T HAPPEN. WITH THE
CAP AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING...WILL LEAVE THIS
EVENING DRY. THINK THAT TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH A
BIT OF STRATUS AND MAYBE PATCHY FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVE IN AND
EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA UP TOWARDS THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH CAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG SHOULD SET OFF SOME PRETTY STRONG
CONVECTION BY MID AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE EARLY ON BUT IMPROVE TO NEAR 40 KTS IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK SO INCLUDED SOME MENTION OF SEVERE FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT ON FRIDAY AND THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT TO MORE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. THINK THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOTS OF
CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE COMES
THROUGH...SO HAVE LIKELY POPS GOING. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DOES
NOT ENTER WESTERN ND UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH MUCH
OF THE PRECIP SHIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLING OFF WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP IN THE AREA SO KEPT HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE 70S TO
LOW 80S.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER AS 500MB LOW NORTH OF THE CWA LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO BE EXITING THE EAST EARLY MONDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN. THEREAFTER
A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH A SLGT CHC POP IN THE FAR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 15C WILL SEE MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
MONDAY TO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

T DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN VALLEY HOWEVER SO ISOLD DID
NOT MENTION IN ANY TAFS. OTHERWISE CHALLENGE AGAIN TONIGHT WILL
BE ST/FG DEVELOPMENT AS REGION REMAINS IN VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS. GETTING MIXED SIGNALS FROM NEAR TERM GUIDANCE ON
POTENTIAL. DID NOT BRING IN ANY IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO GUIDANCE CLOSELY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 032345
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

HAVE ADDED ISOLD T THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN VALLEY REGION FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. GETTING A FEW LTG STRIKES IN SMALL
CLUSTER OF MAINLY ACCAS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HOT AND HUMID AIR CONTINUE OVER THE
CWA...WITH MANY LOCATIONS SHOWING DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF NEAR 5000 J/KG...BUT WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD AND 700MB TEMPS IN THE 14 C RANGE...A STOUT CAP IS
IN PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO GET GOING ALONG THE
SFC TROUGH AXIS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT CU IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE. SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION
ENTERING THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MANY
HAVE BEEN OVERDOING CONVECTION AND HAVE STORMS BREAKING OUT OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS OF 18Z TODAY WHICH DIDN`T HAPPEN. WITH THE
CAP AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING...WILL LEAVE THIS
EVENING DRY. THINK THAT TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH A
BIT OF STRATUS AND MAYBE PATCHY FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVE IN AND
EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA UP TOWARDS THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH CAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG SHOULD SET OFF SOME PRETTY STRONG
CONVECTION BY MID AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE EARLY ON BUT IMPROVE TO NEAR 40 KTS IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK SO INCLUDED SOME MENTION OF SEVERE FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT ON FRIDAY AND THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT TO MORE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. THINK THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOTS OF
CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE COMES
THROUGH...SO HAVE LIKELY POPS GOING. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DOES
NOT ENTER WESTERN ND UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH MUCH
OF THE PRECIP SHIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLING OFF WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP IN THE AREA SO KEPT HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE 70S TO
LOW 80S.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER AS 500MB LOW NORTH OF THE CWA LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO BE EXITING THE EAST EARLY MONDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN. THEREAFTER
A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH A SLGT CHC POP IN THE FAR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 15C WILL SEE MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
MONDAY TO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

T DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN VALLEY HOWEVER SO ISOLD DID
NOT MENTION IN ANY TAFS. OTHERWISE CHALLENGE AGAIN TONIGHT WILL
BE ST/FG DEVELOPMENT AS REGION REMAINS IN VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS. GETTING MIXED SIGNALS FROM NEAR TERM GUIDANCE ON
POTENTIAL. DID NOT BRING IN ANY IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO GUIDANCE CLOSELY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 032345
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

HAVE ADDED ISOLD T THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN VALLEY REGION FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. GETTING A FEW LTG STRIKES IN SMALL
CLUSTER OF MAINLY ACCAS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HOT AND HUMID AIR CONTINUE OVER THE
CWA...WITH MANY LOCATIONS SHOWING DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF NEAR 5000 J/KG...BUT WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD AND 700MB TEMPS IN THE 14 C RANGE...A STOUT CAP IS
IN PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO GET GOING ALONG THE
SFC TROUGH AXIS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT CU IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE. SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION
ENTERING THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MANY
HAVE BEEN OVERDOING CONVECTION AND HAVE STORMS BREAKING OUT OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS OF 18Z TODAY WHICH DIDN`T HAPPEN. WITH THE
CAP AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING...WILL LEAVE THIS
EVENING DRY. THINK THAT TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH A
BIT OF STRATUS AND MAYBE PATCHY FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVE IN AND
EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA UP TOWARDS THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH CAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG SHOULD SET OFF SOME PRETTY STRONG
CONVECTION BY MID AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE EARLY ON BUT IMPROVE TO NEAR 40 KTS IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK SO INCLUDED SOME MENTION OF SEVERE FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT ON FRIDAY AND THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT TO MORE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. THINK THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOTS OF
CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE COMES
THROUGH...SO HAVE LIKELY POPS GOING. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DOES
NOT ENTER WESTERN ND UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH MUCH
OF THE PRECIP SHIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLING OFF WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP IN THE AREA SO KEPT HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE 70S TO
LOW 80S.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER AS 500MB LOW NORTH OF THE CWA LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO BE EXITING THE EAST EARLY MONDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN. THEREAFTER
A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH A SLGT CHC POP IN THE FAR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 15C WILL SEE MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
MONDAY TO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

T DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN VALLEY HOWEVER SO ISOLD DID
NOT MENTION IN ANY TAFS. OTHERWISE CHALLENGE AGAIN TONIGHT WILL
BE ST/FG DEVELOPMENT AS REGION REMAINS IN VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS. GETTING MIXED SIGNALS FROM NEAR TERM GUIDANCE ON
POTENTIAL. DID NOT BRING IN ANY IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO GUIDANCE CLOSELY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 032345
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

HAVE ADDED ISOLD T THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN VALLEY REGION FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. GETTING A FEW LTG STRIKES IN SMALL
CLUSTER OF MAINLY ACCAS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HOT AND HUMID AIR CONTINUE OVER THE
CWA...WITH MANY LOCATIONS SHOWING DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF NEAR 5000 J/KG...BUT WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD AND 700MB TEMPS IN THE 14 C RANGE...A STOUT CAP IS
IN PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO GET GOING ALONG THE
SFC TROUGH AXIS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT CU IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE. SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION
ENTERING THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MANY
HAVE BEEN OVERDOING CONVECTION AND HAVE STORMS BREAKING OUT OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS OF 18Z TODAY WHICH DIDN`T HAPPEN. WITH THE
CAP AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING...WILL LEAVE THIS
EVENING DRY. THINK THAT TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH A
BIT OF STRATUS AND MAYBE PATCHY FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVE IN AND
EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA UP TOWARDS THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH CAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG SHOULD SET OFF SOME PRETTY STRONG
CONVECTION BY MID AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE EARLY ON BUT IMPROVE TO NEAR 40 KTS IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK SO INCLUDED SOME MENTION OF SEVERE FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT ON FRIDAY AND THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT TO MORE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. THINK THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOTS OF
CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE COMES
THROUGH...SO HAVE LIKELY POPS GOING. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DOES
NOT ENTER WESTERN ND UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH MUCH
OF THE PRECIP SHIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLING OFF WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP IN THE AREA SO KEPT HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE 70S TO
LOW 80S.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER AS 500MB LOW NORTH OF THE CWA LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO BE EXITING THE EAST EARLY MONDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN. THEREAFTER
A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH A SLGT CHC POP IN THE FAR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 15C WILL SEE MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
MONDAY TO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

T DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN VALLEY HOWEVER SO ISOLD DID
NOT MENTION IN ANY TAFS. OTHERWISE CHALLENGE AGAIN TONIGHT WILL
BE ST/FG DEVELOPMENT AS REGION REMAINS IN VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS. GETTING MIXED SIGNALS FROM NEAR TERM GUIDANCE ON
POTENTIAL. DID NOT BRING IN ANY IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO GUIDANCE CLOSELY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 032345
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

HAVE ADDED ISOLD T THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN VALLEY REGION FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. GETTING A FEW LTG STRIKES IN SMALL
CLUSTER OF MAINLY ACCAS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HOT AND HUMID AIR CONTINUE OVER THE
CWA...WITH MANY LOCATIONS SHOWING DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF NEAR 5000 J/KG...BUT WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD AND 700MB TEMPS IN THE 14 C RANGE...A STOUT CAP IS
IN PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO GET GOING ALONG THE
SFC TROUGH AXIS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT CU IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE. SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION
ENTERING THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MANY
HAVE BEEN OVERDOING CONVECTION AND HAVE STORMS BREAKING OUT OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS OF 18Z TODAY WHICH DIDN`T HAPPEN. WITH THE
CAP AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING...WILL LEAVE THIS
EVENING DRY. THINK THAT TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH A
BIT OF STRATUS AND MAYBE PATCHY FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVE IN AND
EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA UP TOWARDS THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH CAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG SHOULD SET OFF SOME PRETTY STRONG
CONVECTION BY MID AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE EARLY ON BUT IMPROVE TO NEAR 40 KTS IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK SO INCLUDED SOME MENTION OF SEVERE FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT ON FRIDAY AND THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT TO MORE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. THINK THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOTS OF
CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE COMES
THROUGH...SO HAVE LIKELY POPS GOING. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DOES
NOT ENTER WESTERN ND UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH MUCH
OF THE PRECIP SHIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLING OFF WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP IN THE AREA SO KEPT HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE 70S TO
LOW 80S.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER AS 500MB LOW NORTH OF THE CWA LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO BE EXITING THE EAST EARLY MONDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN. THEREAFTER
A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH A SLGT CHC POP IN THE FAR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 15C WILL SEE MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
MONDAY TO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

T DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN VALLEY HOWEVER SO ISOLD DID
NOT MENTION IN ANY TAFS. OTHERWISE CHALLENGE AGAIN TONIGHT WILL
BE ST/FG DEVELOPMENT AS REGION REMAINS IN VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS. GETTING MIXED SIGNALS FROM NEAR TERM GUIDANCE ON
POTENTIAL. DID NOT BRING IN ANY IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO GUIDANCE CLOSELY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KBIS 032039
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
339 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDE THE VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 SOUTH CENTRAL SHOULD BE COMMON
THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY A PLUME OF
MOISTURE WAS RAISING DEWPOINT ACROSS THE REGION NEAR 70 DEGREES.
SOME AWOS LOCATIONS...DEFINITELY AT OAKES AND POSSIBLY
LINTON...SEEM A BIT HIGH IN COMPARISON TO SURROUNDING
OBSERVATIONS. BELIEVE HEAD INDEX WILL BE AROUND 100 FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON THEN FALL IN THE EVENING AS A SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND DRYER AIR FILTERS IN. WILL NOT ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

TONIGHT A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LINE UP WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS WILL BE PRETTY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND GOOD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
POSSIBLY IN THE AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE LONG TERM ARE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR LEE TROUGHING AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING ALONG CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SUNDAY...SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR (EAST CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA) FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE INDICATING
SEVERAL THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A RATHER WINDY SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS EXPECTED AS
THE LOW WRAPS UP AND PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES UNTIL AROUND 12Z ON
FRIDAY...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KISN/KBIS/KJMS.
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAVE ERODED OVER ALL SITES. SCATTERED MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF
FOGGY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 032039
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
339 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDE THE VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 SOUTH CENTRAL SHOULD BE COMMON
THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY A PLUME OF
MOISTURE WAS RAISING DEWPOINT ACROSS THE REGION NEAR 70 DEGREES.
SOME AWOS LOCATIONS...DEFINITELY AT OAKES AND POSSIBLY
LINTON...SEEM A BIT HIGH IN COMPARISON TO SURROUNDING
OBSERVATIONS. BELIEVE HEAD INDEX WILL BE AROUND 100 FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON THEN FALL IN THE EVENING AS A SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND DRYER AIR FILTERS IN. WILL NOT ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

TONIGHT A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LINE UP WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS WILL BE PRETTY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND GOOD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
POSSIBLY IN THE AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE LONG TERM ARE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR LEE TROUGHING AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING ALONG CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SUNDAY...SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR (EAST CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA) FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE INDICATING
SEVERAL THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A RATHER WINDY SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS EXPECTED AS
THE LOW WRAPS UP AND PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES UNTIL AROUND 12Z ON
FRIDAY...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KISN/KBIS/KJMS.
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAVE ERODED OVER ALL SITES. SCATTERED MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF
FOGGY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA



000
FXUS63 KBIS 032039
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
339 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDE THE VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 SOUTH CENTRAL SHOULD BE COMMON
THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY A PLUME OF
MOISTURE WAS RAISING DEWPOINT ACROSS THE REGION NEAR 70 DEGREES.
SOME AWOS LOCATIONS...DEFINITELY AT OAKES AND POSSIBLY
LINTON...SEEM A BIT HIGH IN COMPARISON TO SURROUNDING
OBSERVATIONS. BELIEVE HEAD INDEX WILL BE AROUND 100 FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON THEN FALL IN THE EVENING AS A SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND DRYER AIR FILTERS IN. WILL NOT ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

TONIGHT A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LINE UP WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS WILL BE PRETTY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND GOOD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
POSSIBLY IN THE AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE LONG TERM ARE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR LEE TROUGHING AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING ALONG CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SUNDAY...SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR (EAST CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA) FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE INDICATING
SEVERAL THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A RATHER WINDY SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS EXPECTED AS
THE LOW WRAPS UP AND PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES UNTIL AROUND 12Z ON
FRIDAY...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KISN/KBIS/KJMS.
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAVE ERODED OVER ALL SITES. SCATTERED MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF
FOGGY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA



000
FXUS63 KFGF 032026
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HOT AND HUMID AIR CONTINUE OVER THE
CWA...WITH MANY LOCATIONS SHOWING DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF NEAR 5000 J/KG...BUT WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD AND 700MB TEMPS IN THE 14 C RANGE...A STOUT CAP IS
IN PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO GET GOING ALONG THE
SFC TROUGH AXIS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT CU IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE. SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION
ENTERING THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MANY
HAVE BEEN OVERDOING CONVECTION AND HAVE STORMS BREAKING OUT OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS OF 18Z TODAY WHICH DIDN`T HAPPEN. WITH THE
CAP AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING...WILL LEAVE THIS
EVENING DRY. THINK THAT TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH A
BIT OF STRATUS AND MAYBE PATCHY FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVE IN AND
EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA UP TOWARDS THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH CAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG SHOULD SET OFF SOME PRETTY STRONG
CONVECTION BY MID AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE EARLY ON BUT IMPROVE TO NEAR 40 KTS IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK SO INCLUDED SOME MENTION OF SEVERE FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT ON FRIDAY AND THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT TO MORE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. THINK THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOTS OF
CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE COMES
THROUGH...SO HAVE LIKELY POPS GOING. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DOES
NOT ENTER WESTERN ND UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH MUCH
OF THE PRECIP SHIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLING OFF WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP IN THE AREA SO KEPT HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE 70S TO
LOW 80S.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER AS 500MB LOW NORTH OF THE CWA LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO BE EXITING THE EAST EARLY MONDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN. THEREAFTER
A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH A SLGT CHC POP IN THE FAR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 15C WILL SEE MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
MONDAY TO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR TODAY WITH SE WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASING SKY COVER TOMORROW MORNING WITH BKN TO OVC
10KFT OR HIGHER CIGS DEVELOPING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 032026
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HOT AND HUMID AIR CONTINUE OVER THE
CWA...WITH MANY LOCATIONS SHOWING DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF NEAR 5000 J/KG...BUT WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD AND 700MB TEMPS IN THE 14 C RANGE...A STOUT CAP IS
IN PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO GET GOING ALONG THE
SFC TROUGH AXIS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT CU IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE. SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION
ENTERING THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MANY
HAVE BEEN OVERDOING CONVECTION AND HAVE STORMS BREAKING OUT OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS OF 18Z TODAY WHICH DIDN`T HAPPEN. WITH THE
CAP AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING...WILL LEAVE THIS
EVENING DRY. THINK THAT TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH A
BIT OF STRATUS AND MAYBE PATCHY FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVE IN AND
EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA UP TOWARDS THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH CAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG SHOULD SET OFF SOME PRETTY STRONG
CONVECTION BY MID AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE EARLY ON BUT IMPROVE TO NEAR 40 KTS IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK SO INCLUDED SOME MENTION OF SEVERE FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT ON FRIDAY AND THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT TO MORE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. THINK THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOTS OF
CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE COMES
THROUGH...SO HAVE LIKELY POPS GOING. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DOES
NOT ENTER WESTERN ND UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH MUCH
OF THE PRECIP SHIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLING OFF WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP IN THE AREA SO KEPT HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE 70S TO
LOW 80S.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER AS 500MB LOW NORTH OF THE CWA LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO BE EXITING THE EAST EARLY MONDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN. THEREAFTER
A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH A SLGT CHC POP IN THE FAR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 15C WILL SEE MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
MONDAY TO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR TODAY WITH SE WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASING SKY COVER TOMORROW MORNING WITH BKN TO OVC
10KFT OR HIGHER CIGS DEVELOPING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 031739
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1239 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CWA...BUT A BIT OF STRATUS IS STILL LINGERING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THINK THAT THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE GONE IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. BASED ON CURRENT CLOUD AND TEMP PROFILES THINK
THAT MUCH OF THE CWA WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S BUT
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD GET TO THE MID 90S. HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THAT AREA WILL BE 100 OR ABOVE FOR A SHORT PERIOD BUT DO
NOT THINK IT WILL BE MORE THAN 3 HOURS AS NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE RED RIVER ARE BEING STUBBORN AND HANGING
AROUND A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE FOG HAS
DISSIPATED. THINK THAT THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING COMPLETELY THIS AFTERNOON. STILL THINK THAT THE
NORTH DAKOTA SIDE WILL GET INTO THE LOW 90S...BUT WILL MONITOR IN
CASE THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND A BIT LONGER AND KEEP US A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE BURNING OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND TEMPS. MODELS
CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM VERY
SIMILAR AND PREFERRED.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE HOT WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THAT WE WILL
MENTION THROUGH 14Z OR SO.

ON FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT A SHORTWAVE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES FRIDAY EVENING...AND MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. THE
STRONGER DEEP LAYERED SHEAR REMAINS TO THE WEST...BUT GIVEN FAIRLY
STRONG INSTABILITY/MOISTURE...SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
BECOME LIKELY AS LLJ INCREASES DURING THE EVENING. A SFC BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND WILL LIKELY FOCUS SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE PROFILE...EVEN WITH WEAKER SHEAR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO BECOME A THREAT NEAR AREA THAT
GET REPEATED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN VERY HIGH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW FINALLY WILL EJECT INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION AS THE WARM MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE PRECEDING THE BOUNDARY AND DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN.

MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY...BREEZY AND COOLER AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS. CURRENTLY HAVE
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST TUE-WED...ALTHOUGH MODEL VARIABILITY BECOMES
MUCH GREATER DURING THIS TIME...LEADING TO LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR TODAY WITH SE WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASING SKY COVER TOMORROW MORNING WITH BKN TO OVC
10KFT OR HIGHER CIGS DEVELOPING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 031739
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1239 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CWA...BUT A BIT OF STRATUS IS STILL LINGERING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THINK THAT THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE GONE IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. BASED ON CURRENT CLOUD AND TEMP PROFILES THINK
THAT MUCH OF THE CWA WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S BUT
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD GET TO THE MID 90S. HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THAT AREA WILL BE 100 OR ABOVE FOR A SHORT PERIOD BUT DO
NOT THINK IT WILL BE MORE THAN 3 HOURS AS NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE RED RIVER ARE BEING STUBBORN AND HANGING
AROUND A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE FOG HAS
DISSIPATED. THINK THAT THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING COMPLETELY THIS AFTERNOON. STILL THINK THAT THE
NORTH DAKOTA SIDE WILL GET INTO THE LOW 90S...BUT WILL MONITOR IN
CASE THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND A BIT LONGER AND KEEP US A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE BURNING OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND TEMPS. MODELS
CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM VERY
SIMILAR AND PREFERRED.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE HOT WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THAT WE WILL
MENTION THROUGH 14Z OR SO.

ON FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT A SHORTWAVE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES FRIDAY EVENING...AND MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. THE
STRONGER DEEP LAYERED SHEAR REMAINS TO THE WEST...BUT GIVEN FAIRLY
STRONG INSTABILITY/MOISTURE...SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
BECOME LIKELY AS LLJ INCREASES DURING THE EVENING. A SFC BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND WILL LIKELY FOCUS SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE PROFILE...EVEN WITH WEAKER SHEAR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO BECOME A THREAT NEAR AREA THAT
GET REPEATED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN VERY HIGH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW FINALLY WILL EJECT INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION AS THE WARM MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE PRECEDING THE BOUNDARY AND DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN.

MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY...BREEZY AND COOLER AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS. CURRENTLY HAVE
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST TUE-WED...ALTHOUGH MODEL VARIABILITY BECOMES
MUCH GREATER DURING THIS TIME...LEADING TO LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR TODAY WITH SE WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASING SKY COVER TOMORROW MORNING WITH BKN TO OVC
10KFT OR HIGHER CIGS DEVELOPING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JK



000
FXUS63 KBIS 031739
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1239 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ADDED SOME CLOUD COVER WHERE ACCAS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
SOUTHWEST IN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. HIGHS SHOULD STILL
BE AROUND 100 CENTRAL UNLESS CLOUDS INCREASE TOO MUCH...BUT
ALREADY 91 IN BISMARCK AT 1230 PM CDT SO THINGS ARE IN TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO
ERODE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. KEPT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON IN CASE A STORM OR TWO CAN BREAK THROUGH
THE CAP WITH MODEST INSTABILITY FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. DID NUDGE FOG AND
CLOUD COVER WEST SLIGHTLY BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. REMOVED ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST AS THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE
BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE MORNING FOG...VERY
WARM CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED...AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH A
DOWNSTREAM THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
DAKOTAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
SLOWLY...REMAINING OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND EDGING EASTWARD
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD SLOWLY TODAY. BY THIS EVENING THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND FROM MANITOBA TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...TO THE BLACK HILLS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS INDICATE THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THIS MORNING...VERY HUMID AIR IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WERE REPORTED IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE JAMES
AND TURTLE MOUNTAIN AND DEVILS LAKE BASINS. FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE VERY WARM MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL MIX DOWN
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 90S AGAIN
TODAY...PERHAPS HITTING THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN SOME LOCALES.

RECORD HIGHS TODAY:
                  YEAR
WILLISTON    102  1978
MINOT        101  1940
DICKINSON     99  2007
BISMARCK     101  1978
JAMESTOWN     99  1922

THE THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD CAP ANY CONVECTION TODAY...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP ALONG THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH JUST ENOUGH SURFACE
HEATING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE FLOW...THE MID-LEVEL CAP WEAKENING A BIT WITH SUNSET...SHOULD
ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY...TROUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN CONUS WILL DEEPEN AND
START SLOWLY WORKING TOWARDS THE EAST...WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW
REMAINS OVER OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL DEEPEN. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AS
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS ADVANCE TOWARDS THE PLAINS AND SURFACE
LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD. THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

UPPER SYSTEM THEN CLOSES OFF AND LIFTS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA AS SYSTEM STARTS TO STACK UP. THIS WILL BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN OVER
MANY LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY...TAPERING OFF ON MONDAY. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES UNTIL AROUND 12Z ON
FRIDAY...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KISN/KBIS/KJMS.
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAVE ERODED OVER ALL SITES. SCATTERED MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF
FOGGY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...ZH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 031739
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1239 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ADDED SOME CLOUD COVER WHERE ACCAS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
SOUTHWEST IN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. HIGHS SHOULD STILL
BE AROUND 100 CENTRAL UNLESS CLOUDS INCREASE TOO MUCH...BUT
ALREADY 91 IN BISMARCK AT 1230 PM CDT SO THINGS ARE IN TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO
ERODE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. KEPT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON IN CASE A STORM OR TWO CAN BREAK THROUGH
THE CAP WITH MODEST INSTABILITY FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. DID NUDGE FOG AND
CLOUD COVER WEST SLIGHTLY BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. REMOVED ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST AS THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE
BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE MORNING FOG...VERY
WARM CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED...AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH A
DOWNSTREAM THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
DAKOTAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
SLOWLY...REMAINING OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND EDGING EASTWARD
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD SLOWLY TODAY. BY THIS EVENING THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND FROM MANITOBA TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...TO THE BLACK HILLS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS INDICATE THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THIS MORNING...VERY HUMID AIR IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WERE REPORTED IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE JAMES
AND TURTLE MOUNTAIN AND DEVILS LAKE BASINS. FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE VERY WARM MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL MIX DOWN
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 90S AGAIN
TODAY...PERHAPS HITTING THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN SOME LOCALES.

RECORD HIGHS TODAY:
                  YEAR
WILLISTON    102  1978
MINOT        101  1940
DICKINSON     99  2007
BISMARCK     101  1978
JAMESTOWN     99  1922

THE THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD CAP ANY CONVECTION TODAY...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP ALONG THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH JUST ENOUGH SURFACE
HEATING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE FLOW...THE MID-LEVEL CAP WEAKENING A BIT WITH SUNSET...SHOULD
ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY...TROUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN CONUS WILL DEEPEN AND
START SLOWLY WORKING TOWARDS THE EAST...WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW
REMAINS OVER OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL DEEPEN. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AS
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS ADVANCE TOWARDS THE PLAINS AND SURFACE
LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD. THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

UPPER SYSTEM THEN CLOSES OFF AND LIFTS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA AS SYSTEM STARTS TO STACK UP. THIS WILL BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN OVER
MANY LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY...TAPERING OFF ON MONDAY. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES UNTIL AROUND 12Z ON
FRIDAY...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KISN/KBIS/KJMS.
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAVE ERODED OVER ALL SITES. SCATTERED MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF
FOGGY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...ZH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 031739
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1239 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ADDED SOME CLOUD COVER WHERE ACCAS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
SOUTHWEST IN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. HIGHS SHOULD STILL
BE AROUND 100 CENTRAL UNLESS CLOUDS INCREASE TOO MUCH...BUT
ALREADY 91 IN BISMARCK AT 1230 PM CDT SO THINGS ARE IN TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO
ERODE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. KEPT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON IN CASE A STORM OR TWO CAN BREAK THROUGH
THE CAP WITH MODEST INSTABILITY FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. DID NUDGE FOG AND
CLOUD COVER WEST SLIGHTLY BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. REMOVED ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST AS THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE
BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE MORNING FOG...VERY
WARM CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED...AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH A
DOWNSTREAM THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
DAKOTAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
SLOWLY...REMAINING OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND EDGING EASTWARD
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD SLOWLY TODAY. BY THIS EVENING THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND FROM MANITOBA TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...TO THE BLACK HILLS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS INDICATE THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THIS MORNING...VERY HUMID AIR IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WERE REPORTED IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE JAMES
AND TURTLE MOUNTAIN AND DEVILS LAKE BASINS. FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE VERY WARM MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL MIX DOWN
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 90S AGAIN
TODAY...PERHAPS HITTING THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN SOME LOCALES.

RECORD HIGHS TODAY:
                  YEAR
WILLISTON    102  1978
MINOT        101  1940
DICKINSON     99  2007
BISMARCK     101  1978
JAMESTOWN     99  1922

THE THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD CAP ANY CONVECTION TODAY...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP ALONG THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH JUST ENOUGH SURFACE
HEATING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE FLOW...THE MID-LEVEL CAP WEAKENING A BIT WITH SUNSET...SHOULD
ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY...TROUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN CONUS WILL DEEPEN AND
START SLOWLY WORKING TOWARDS THE EAST...WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW
REMAINS OVER OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL DEEPEN. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AS
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS ADVANCE TOWARDS THE PLAINS AND SURFACE
LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD. THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

UPPER SYSTEM THEN CLOSES OFF AND LIFTS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA AS SYSTEM STARTS TO STACK UP. THIS WILL BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN OVER
MANY LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY...TAPERING OFF ON MONDAY. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES UNTIL AROUND 12Z ON
FRIDAY...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KISN/KBIS/KJMS.
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAVE ERODED OVER ALL SITES. SCATTERED MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF
FOGGY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...ZH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 031739
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1239 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ADDED SOME CLOUD COVER WHERE ACCAS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
SOUTHWEST IN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. HIGHS SHOULD STILL
BE AROUND 100 CENTRAL UNLESS CLOUDS INCREASE TOO MUCH...BUT
ALREADY 91 IN BISMARCK AT 1230 PM CDT SO THINGS ARE IN TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO
ERODE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. KEPT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON IN CASE A STORM OR TWO CAN BREAK THROUGH
THE CAP WITH MODEST INSTABILITY FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. DID NUDGE FOG AND
CLOUD COVER WEST SLIGHTLY BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. REMOVED ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST AS THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE
BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE MORNING FOG...VERY
WARM CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED...AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH A
DOWNSTREAM THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
DAKOTAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
SLOWLY...REMAINING OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND EDGING EASTWARD
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD SLOWLY TODAY. BY THIS EVENING THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND FROM MANITOBA TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...TO THE BLACK HILLS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS INDICATE THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THIS MORNING...VERY HUMID AIR IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WERE REPORTED IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE JAMES
AND TURTLE MOUNTAIN AND DEVILS LAKE BASINS. FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE VERY WARM MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL MIX DOWN
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 90S AGAIN
TODAY...PERHAPS HITTING THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN SOME LOCALES.

RECORD HIGHS TODAY:
                  YEAR
WILLISTON    102  1978
MINOT        101  1940
DICKINSON     99  2007
BISMARCK     101  1978
JAMESTOWN     99  1922

THE THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD CAP ANY CONVECTION TODAY...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP ALONG THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH JUST ENOUGH SURFACE
HEATING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE FLOW...THE MID-LEVEL CAP WEAKENING A BIT WITH SUNSET...SHOULD
ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY...TROUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN CONUS WILL DEEPEN AND
START SLOWLY WORKING TOWARDS THE EAST...WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW
REMAINS OVER OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL DEEPEN. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AS
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS ADVANCE TOWARDS THE PLAINS AND SURFACE
LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD. THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

UPPER SYSTEM THEN CLOSES OFF AND LIFTS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA AS SYSTEM STARTS TO STACK UP. THIS WILL BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN OVER
MANY LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY...TAPERING OFF ON MONDAY. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES UNTIL AROUND 12Z ON
FRIDAY...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KISN/KBIS/KJMS.
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAVE ERODED OVER ALL SITES. SCATTERED MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF
FOGGY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...ZH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 031739
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1239 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ADDED SOME CLOUD COVER WHERE ACCAS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
SOUTHWEST IN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. HIGHS SHOULD STILL
BE AROUND 100 CENTRAL UNLESS CLOUDS INCREASE TOO MUCH...BUT
ALREADY 91 IN BISMARCK AT 1230 PM CDT SO THINGS ARE IN TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO
ERODE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. KEPT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON IN CASE A STORM OR TWO CAN BREAK THROUGH
THE CAP WITH MODEST INSTABILITY FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. DID NUDGE FOG AND
CLOUD COVER WEST SLIGHTLY BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. REMOVED ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST AS THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE
BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE MORNING FOG...VERY
WARM CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED...AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH A
DOWNSTREAM THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
DAKOTAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
SLOWLY...REMAINING OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND EDGING EASTWARD
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD SLOWLY TODAY. BY THIS EVENING THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND FROM MANITOBA TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...TO THE BLACK HILLS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS INDICATE THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THIS MORNING...VERY HUMID AIR IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WERE REPORTED IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE JAMES
AND TURTLE MOUNTAIN AND DEVILS LAKE BASINS. FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE VERY WARM MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL MIX DOWN
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 90S AGAIN
TODAY...PERHAPS HITTING THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN SOME LOCALES.

RECORD HIGHS TODAY:
                  YEAR
WILLISTON    102  1978
MINOT        101  1940
DICKINSON     99  2007
BISMARCK     101  1978
JAMESTOWN     99  1922

THE THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD CAP ANY CONVECTION TODAY...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP ALONG THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH JUST ENOUGH SURFACE
HEATING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE FLOW...THE MID-LEVEL CAP WEAKENING A BIT WITH SUNSET...SHOULD
ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY...TROUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN CONUS WILL DEEPEN AND
START SLOWLY WORKING TOWARDS THE EAST...WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW
REMAINS OVER OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL DEEPEN. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AS
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS ADVANCE TOWARDS THE PLAINS AND SURFACE
LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD. THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

UPPER SYSTEM THEN CLOSES OFF AND LIFTS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA AS SYSTEM STARTS TO STACK UP. THIS WILL BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN OVER
MANY LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY...TAPERING OFF ON MONDAY. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES UNTIL AROUND 12Z ON
FRIDAY...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KISN/KBIS/KJMS.
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAVE ERODED OVER ALL SITES. SCATTERED MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF
FOGGY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...ZH




000
FXUS63 KFGF 031739
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1239 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CWA...BUT A BIT OF STRATUS IS STILL LINGERING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THINK THAT THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE GONE IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. BASED ON CURRENT CLOUD AND TEMP PROFILES THINK
THAT MUCH OF THE CWA WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S BUT
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD GET TO THE MID 90S. HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THAT AREA WILL BE 100 OR ABOVE FOR A SHORT PERIOD BUT DO
NOT THINK IT WILL BE MORE THAN 3 HOURS AS NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE RED RIVER ARE BEING STUBBORN AND HANGING
AROUND A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE FOG HAS
DISSIPATED. THINK THAT THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING COMPLETELY THIS AFTERNOON. STILL THINK THAT THE
NORTH DAKOTA SIDE WILL GET INTO THE LOW 90S...BUT WILL MONITOR IN
CASE THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND A BIT LONGER AND KEEP US A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE BURNING OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND TEMPS. MODELS
CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM VERY
SIMILAR AND PREFERRED.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE HOT WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THAT WE WILL
MENTION THROUGH 14Z OR SO.

ON FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT A SHORTWAVE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES FRIDAY EVENING...AND MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. THE
STRONGER DEEP LAYERED SHEAR REMAINS TO THE WEST...BUT GIVEN FAIRLY
STRONG INSTABILITY/MOISTURE...SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
BECOME LIKELY AS LLJ INCREASES DURING THE EVENING. A SFC BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND WILL LIKELY FOCUS SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE PROFILE...EVEN WITH WEAKER SHEAR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO BECOME A THREAT NEAR AREA THAT
GET REPEATED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN VERY HIGH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW FINALLY WILL EJECT INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION AS THE WARM MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE PRECEDING THE BOUNDARY AND DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN.

MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY...BREEZY AND COOLER AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS. CURRENTLY HAVE
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST TUE-WED...ALTHOUGH MODEL VARIABILITY BECOMES
MUCH GREATER DURING THIS TIME...LEADING TO LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR TODAY WITH SE WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASING SKY COVER TOMORROW MORNING WITH BKN TO OVC
10KFT OR HIGHER CIGS DEVELOPING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 031439
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
939 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE RED RIVER ARE BEING STUBBORN AND HANGING
AROUND A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE FOG HAS
DISSIPATED. THINK THAT THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING COMPLETELY THIS AFTERNOON. STILL THINK THAT THE
NORTH DAKOTA SIDE WILL GET INTO THE LOW 90S...BUT WILL MONITOR IN
CASE THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND A BIT LONGER AND KEEP US A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE BURNING OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND TEMPS. MODELS
CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM VERY
SIMILAR AND PREFERRED.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE HOT WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THAT WE WILL
MENTION THROUGH 14Z OR SO.

ON FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT A SHORTWAVE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES FRIDAY EVENING...AND MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. THE
STRONGER DEEP LAYERED SHEAR REMAINS TO THE WEST...BUT GIVEN FAIRLY
STRONG INSTABILITY/MOISTURE...SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
BECOME LIKELY AS LLJ INCREASES DURING THE EVENING. A SFC BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND WILL LIKELY FOCUS SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE PROFILE...EVEN WITH WEAKER SHEAR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO BECOME A THREAT NEAR AREA THAT
GET REPEATED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN VERY HIGH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW FINALLY WILL EJECT INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION AS THE WARM MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE PRECEDING THE BOUNDARY AND DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN.

MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY...BREEZY AND COOLER AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS. CURRENTLY HAVE
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST TUE-WED...ALTHOUGH MODEL VARIABILITY BECOMES
MUCH GREATER DURING THIS TIME...LEADING TO LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.
THE HRRR SLOWLY ERODES THESE CLOUDS AND FOG AROUND 15Z...AND HAVE
GONE VFR THEREAFTER. SOME AREAS COULD HOLD ON A BIT LONGER...WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 20KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK



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