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000
FXUS63 KBIS 311751
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1251 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. LOWER STRATUS IS
QUICKLY ERODING OVER THE FAR WEST. TEMPERATURES LOOK IN LINE.
WIND ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST AT 18 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS REMAINS OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR WITH THIN CIRRUS SPREADING FROM CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATED SKY COVER IN THE WEST TO KEEP
CLOUDS IN THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. LATEST 13 UTC RAP SHOWS LOW
LEVEL RH DISSIPATING QUICKLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY MIDDAY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MORE MARGINAL CRITERIA FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY AS WE
MOVE CLOSER TO MIDDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

STRATUS DECK ORIENTED ALONG A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO
ERODE THIS MORNING AS VERTICAL MIXING COMMENCES. THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS
GOOD BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. ONLY MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO
THE NEAR-TERM HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG
WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO
SASKATCHEWAN...MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH AND
EAST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. LOW STRATUS DECK
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHRINK WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ERODES THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE CLOUDS. SCT-BKN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MATERIALIZES TODAY IN THE WAKE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA. AS IS COMMON WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW...STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT (40KTS +) LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE STRONGEST GRADIENT FORCING IS
DEPICTED. THUS CURRENT WIND ADVISORY (SOUTHWEST) LOOKS GOOD BASED
ON THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT ANALYSIS. BREEZY BUT SUB
ADVISORY WINDS ELSEWHERE.

DESPITE GOOD RETURN FLOW TODAY...SCT-BKN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK
COMBINED WITH A VERY COLD START THIS MORNING WILL ONLY SEE DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S CENTRAL AND EAST. A BIT WARMER WEST
(40S) THANKS TO A WARMER MORNING START AND BETTER WAA.

PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SUCH AS THEY ARE THIS
MORNING. THE BAD NEWS IS LOWS ARE STILL FORECAST AT 25 TO AROUND
30...RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CRESTS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN IN MONTANA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS NORTH
MONDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK CLIPPER CLIPS THE STATE. THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE EITHER
RAIN OR SNOW...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
BROAD UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LOWER STRATUS HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED A KISN AND KDIK. THEREFORE
WILL BE ABLE TO START OUT THE 18 UTC FORECAST WITH VFR CEILINGS
AT ALL AERODROMES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF RETURNING STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WEST/CENTRAL BUT MODELS INDICATE LESS OF AN
INVERSION TONIGHT WITH NOT AS MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040-041-
043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH






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000
FXUS63 KFGF 311726
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1226 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY...FORECAST GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY. 00Z MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR TODAY...COLD START COMBINED WITH WEAK MIXING
WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S (DESPITE FULL SOLAR). RETURN
FLOW COMMENCES TONIGHT...AND THE CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW QUICKLY
TEMPS FALL IN THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MORE STEADY (DUE TO
RETURN FLOW). THE ONE CERTAINTY...MIN TEMPS WILL BE WARMER WEST OF
THE VALLEY THAN EAST OF THE VALLEY.

ON SATURDAY...COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE (DRY AIRMASS WITH RIDGING ALOFT).
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER CONSIDERING INCREASED MIXING AND A
WARMING AIRMASS. STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME MIXING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE NEAR WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS.
CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING LAYER UP TO AROUND
900MB...WITH AROUND 35 KNOTS AT THIS LAYER. IF THE MIXING LAYER IS
DEEPER THAN EXPECTED...MODELS INDICATE 850MB WIND SPEEDS AROUND 40
KNOTS...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO STRONGER SFC WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND ANY
WEAK WAVES EJECTING FROM WEST COAST TROUGH COULD LEAD TO CLOUD
COVER AND/OR SHOWERS. HOWEVER...AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY
AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
WARM.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE QUIET TO
START...AS MAJOR GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF AN OMEGA UPPER
AIR PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SHORT WAVE MOVING
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD EXTREME NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA COULD
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS OR MIXED PCPN THAT VICINITY EARLY TUES AS
REST OF REGION REMAINS DRY. MORE POTENT WAVE ON TRACK FOR
WEDNESDAY SHOULD OFFER A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY WITH SIGNS OF ANOTHER RIDGE MIGRATING IN
FROM THE WEST AT THE VERY END OF THE TILT. THIS PATTERN WOULD
INDICATE SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING LOW TEMPS MOST PLACES MOST OF THE
DAYS...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MAX TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE ONLY CLOUDS OF NOTE WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING CIRRUS SO
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ALLOWING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PICK
UP THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY...ALL
STATIONS BUT POSSIBLY KBJI WILL SEE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20
KTS WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 311452
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
952 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS REMAINS OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR WITH THIN CIRRUS SPREADING FROM CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATED SKY COVER IN THE WEST TO KEEP
CLOUDS IN THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. LATEST 13 UTC RAP SHOWS LOW
LEVEL RH DISSIPATING QUICKLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY MIDDAY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MORE MARGINAL CRITERIA FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY AS WE
MOVE CLOSER TO MIDDAY.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

STRATUS DECK ORIENTED ALONG A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO
ERODE THIS MORNING AS VERTICAL MIXING COMMENCES. THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS
GOOD BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. ONLY MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO
THE NEAR-TERM HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG
WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO
SASKATCHEWAN...MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH AND
EAST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. LOW STRATUS DECK
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHRINK WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ERODES THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE CLOUDS. SCT-BKN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MATERIALIZES TODAY IN THE WAKE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA. AS IS COMMON WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW...STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT (40KTS +) LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE STRONGEST GRADIENT FORCING IS
DEPICTED. THUS CURRENT WIND ADVISORY (SOUTHWEST) LOOKS GOOD BASED
ON THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT ANALYSIS. BREEZY BUT SUB
ADVISORY WINDS ELSEWHERE.

DESPITE GOOD RETURN FLOW TODAY...SCT-BKN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK
COMBINED WITH A VERY COLD START THIS MORNING WILL ONLY SEE DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S CENTRAL AND EAST. A BIT WARMER WEST
(40S) THANKS TO A WARMER MORNING START AND BETTER WAA.

PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SUCH AS THEY ARE THIS
MORNING. THE BAD NEWS IS LOWS ARE STILL FORECAST AT 25 TO AROUND
30...RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CRESTS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN IN MONTANA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS NORTH
MONDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK CLIPPER CLIPS THE STATE. THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE EITHER
RAIN OR SNOW...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
BROAD UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MVFR-IFR CEILINGS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (KISN-KDIK) ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT AROUND 18 UTC. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS AT
AERODROMES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL WORK FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KFGF 311448
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
948 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY...FORECAST GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY. 00Z MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR TODAY...COLD START COMBINED WITH WEAK MIXING
WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S (DESPITE FULL SOLAR). RETURN
FLOW COMMENCES TONIGHT...AND THE CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW QUICKLY
TEMPS FALL IN THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MORE STEADY (DUE TO
RETURN FLOW). THE ONE CERTAINTY...MIN TEMPS WILL BE WARMER WEST OF
THE VALLEY THAN EAST OF THE VALLEY.

ON SATURDAY...COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE (DRY AIRMASS WITH RIDGING ALOFT).
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER CONSIDERING INCREASED MIXING AND A
WARMING AIRMASS. STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME MIXING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE NEAR WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS.
CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING LAYER UP TO AROUND
900MB...WITH AROUND 35 KNOTS AT THIS LAYER. IF THE MIXING LAYER IS
DEEPER THAN EXPECTED...MODELS INDICATE 850MB WIND SPEEDS AROUND 40
KNOTS...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO STRONGER SFC WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND ANY
WEAK WAVES EJECTING FROM WEST COAST TROUGH COULD LEAD TO CLOUD
COVER AND/OR SHOWERS. HOWEVER...AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY
AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
WARM.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE QUIET TO
START...AS MAJOR GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF AN OMEGA UPPER
AIR PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SHORT WAVE MOVING
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD EXTREME NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA COULD
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS OR MIXED PCPN THAT VICINITY EARLY TUES AS
REST OF REGION REMAINS DRY. MORE POTENT WAVE ON TRACK FOR
WEDNESDAY SHOULD OFFER A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY WITH SIGNS OF ANOTHER RIDGE MIGRATING IN
FROM THE WEST AT THE VERY END OF THE TILT. THIS PATTERN WOULD
INDICATE SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING LOW TEMPS MOST PLACES MOST OF THE
DAYS...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MAX TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS ABOVE 12 KNOTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KBIS 311141
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

STRATUS DECK ORIENTED ALONG A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO
ERODE THIS MORNING AS VERTICAL MIXING COMMENCES. THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS
GOOD BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. ONLY MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO
THE NEAR-TERM HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG
WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO
SASKATCHEWAN...MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH AND
EAST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. LOW STRATUS DECK
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHRINK WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ERODES THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE CLOUDS. SCT-BKN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MATERIALIZES TODAY IN THE WAKE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA. AS IS COMMON WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW...STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT (40KTS +) LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE STRONGEST GRADIENT FORCING IS
DEPICTED. THUS CURRENT WIND ADVISORY (SOUTHWEST) LOOKS GOOD BASED
ON THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT ANALYSIS. BREEZY BUT SUB
ADVISORY WINDS ELSEWHERE.

DESPITE GOOD RETURN FLOW TODAY...SCT-BKN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK
COMBINED WITH A VERY COLD START THIS MORNING WILL ONLY SEE DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S CENTRAL AND EAST. A BIT WARMER WEST
(40S) THANKS TO A WARMER MORNING START AND BETTER WAA.

PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SUCH AS THEY ARE THIS
MORNING. THE BAD NEWS IS LOWS ARE STILL FORECAST AT 25 TO AROUND
30...RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CRESTS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN IN MONTANA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS NORTH
MONDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK CLIPPER CLIPS THE STATE. THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE EITHER
RAIN OR SNOW...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
BROAD UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
ERODE THE BAND OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA NOW
THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY MORNING...WITH BOTH KDIK AND KISN TRENDING
SCATTERED BY 15Z. OTHERWISE VFR ELSEWHERE AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST AT
18-24KTS. PEAK GUSTS AT KDIK TODAY WILL APPROACH 35-40KTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...NH





000
FXUS63 KFGF 311140
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
640 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY. 00Z MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR TODAY...COLD START COMBINED WITH WEAK MIXING
WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S (DESPITE FULL SOLAR). RETURN
FLOW COMMENCES TONIGHT...AND THE CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW QUICKLY
TEMPS FALL IN THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MORE STEADY (DUE TO
RETURN FLOW). THE ONE CERTAINTY...MIN TEMPS WILL BE WARMER WEST OF
THE VALLEY THAN EAST OF THE VALLEY.

ON SATURDAY...COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE (DRY AIRMASS WITH RIDGING ALOFT).
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER CONSIDERING INCREASED MIXING AND A
WARMING AIRMASS. STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME MIXING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE NEAR WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS.
CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING LAYER UP TO AROUND
900MB...WITH AROUND 35 KNOTS AT THIS LAYER. IF THE MIXING LAYER IS
DEEPER THAN EXPECTED...MODELS INDICATE 850MB WIND SPEEDS AROUND 40
KNOTS...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO STRONGER SFC WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND ANY
WEAK WAVES EJECTING FROM WEST COAST TROUGH COULD LEAD TO CLOUD
COVER AND/OR SHOWERS. HOWEVER...AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY
AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
WARM.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE QUIET TO
START...AS MAJOR GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF AN OMEGA UPPER
AIR PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SHORT WAVE MOVING
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD EXTREME NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA COULD
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS OR MIXED PCPN THAT VICINITY EARLY TUES AS
REST OF REGION REMAINS DRY. MORE POTENT WAVE ON TRACK FOR
WEDNESDAY SHOULD OFFER A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY WITH SIGNS OF ANOTHER RIDGE MIGRATING IN
FROM THE WEST AT THE VERY END OF THE TILT. THIS PATTERN WOULD
INDICATE SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING LOW TEMPS MOST PLACES MOST OF THE
DAYS...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MAX TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS ABOVE 12 KNOTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 310843
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
343 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY. 00Z MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR TODAY...COLD START COMBINED WITH WEAK MIXING
WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S (DESPITE FULL SOLAR). RETURN
FLOW COMMENCES TONIGHT...AND THE CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW QUICKLY
TEMPS FALL IN THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MORE STEADY (DUE TO
RETURN FLOW). THE ONE CERTAINTY...MIN TEMPS WILL BE WARMER WEST OF
THE VALLEY THAN EAST OF THE VALLEY.

ON SATURDAY...COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE (DRY AIRMASS WITH RIDGING ALOFT).
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER CONSIDERING INCREASED MIXING AND A
WARMING AIRMASS. STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME MIXING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE NEAR WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS.
CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING LAYER UP TO AROUND
900MB...WITH AROUND 35 KNOTS AT THIS LAYER. IF THE MIXING LAYER IS
DEEPER THAN EXPECTED...MODELS INDICATE 850MB WIND SPEEDS AROUND 40
KNOTS...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO STRONGER SFC WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND ANY
WEAK WAVES EJECTING FROM WEST COAST TROUGH COULD LEAD TO CLOUD
COVER AND/OR SHOWERS. HOWEVER...AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY
AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
WARM.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE QUIET TO
START...AS MAJOR GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF AN OMEGA UPPER
AIR PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SHORT WAVE MOVING
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD EXTREME NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA COULD
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS OR MIXED PCPN THAT VICINITY EARLY TUES AS
REST OF REGION REMAINS DRY. MORE POTENT WAVE ON TRACK FOR
WEDNESDAY SHOULD OFFER A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY WITH SIGNS OF ANOTHER RIDGE MIGRATING IN
FROM THE WEST AT THE VERY END OF THE TILT. THIS PATTERN WOULD
INDICATE SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING LOW TEMPS MOST PLACES MOST OF THE
DAYS...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MAX TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO 20KT ALONG AND WEST OF
THE VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...DK





000
FXUS63 KBIS 310811
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
311 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG
WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO
SASKATCHEWAN...MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH AND
EAST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. LOW STRATUS DECK
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHRINK WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ERODES THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE CLOUDS. SCT-BKN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MATERIALIZES TODAY IN THE WAKE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA. AS IS COMMON WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW...STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT (40KTS +) LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE STRONGEST GRADIENT FORCING IS
DEPICTED. THUS CURRENT WIND ADVISORY (SOUTHWEST) LOOKS GOOD BASED
ON THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT ANALYSIS. BREEZY BUT SUB
ADVISORY WINDS ELSEWHERE.

DESPITE GOOD RETURN FLOW TODAY...SCT-BKN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK
COMBINED WITH A VERY COLD START THIS MORNING WILL ONLY SEE DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S CENTRAL AND EAST. A BIT WARMER WEST
(40S) THANKS TO A WARMER MORNING START AND BETTER WAA.

PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SUCH AS THEY ARE THIS
MORNING. THE BAD NEWS IS LOWS ARE STILL FORECAST AT 25 TO AROUND
30...RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CRESTS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN IN MONTANA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS NORTH
MONDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK CLIPPER CLIPS THE STATE. THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE EITHER
RAIN OR SNOW...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
BROAD UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
ERODE THE BAND OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA NOW
THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT BOTH KDIK AND KISN TO TREND
SCATTERED BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. OTHERWISE VFR ELSEWHERE AND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...NH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 310625
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
125 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHRINK WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AS DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ERODES THE
STRATUS DECK. LINGERING STRATUS LIKELY THROUGH 15Z...THEN
SCATTERING OUT WITH SCT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING FROM WEST TO
EAST ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PROPAGATES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

MAIN UPDATES EARLY THIS MORNING WAS TO ADJUST SKY GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS. REMOVED FREEZING DRIZZLE/FOG FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH BUFKIT INDICATING THE STRATUS DECK RATHER
THIN AND ZERO FORCING MECHANISMS ALOFT. UPSLOPE FLOW IS
THERE...JUST NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

COOL AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND EAST THIS EVENING.
LOWERED MINS ABOUT 3 DEGREES NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. CLOUDS
WILL NOW OCCUPY ONLY THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF FZDZ AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTHWEST BUT SHOULD ONLY BE
PATCHY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE SOUTH
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY THE WEST AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.
AFTER MIDNIGHT AGREE THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -FZDZ
OVER THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO WEAK UP SLOPE FLOW SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL
SUPER SATURATION ABOVE -10C WITH DRY AIR ABOVE. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND
STRONG WINDS FRIDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

VISIBLE SATELLITE THROUGH 2015 UTC SHOWS THAT THE STRATUS HAS
ERODED ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO
THE UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS GENERALLY ON TRACK...IF NOT
JUST A BIT SLOWER WHEN COMPARED TO THE LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS ON THE
17 THROUGH 19 UTC RAP AND HRRR ITERATIONS. STRATUS EROSION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS IN THE RAP/HRRR AND OBSERVED SATELLITE TRENDS THAT THE
STRATUS MAY LINER ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THUS...WITH SUNDOWN STRATUS BUILD DOWN IS
POSSIBLE...LEADING TO FOG AND POTENTIALLY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
WITH SATURATION WARMER THAN -10C ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR STRATUS FREE AREAS WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE SURFACE HIGH AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS.

FOR FRIDAY...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST FROM 18-00
UTC. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ARE FORECAST AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATING
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE STATIONARY LEE FRONT
ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. 0.5 KM WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS BY 00
UTC ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE RATHER SHALLOW GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED INVERSION. THUS...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHWEST HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF TAPING INTO THE STRONG WINDS
AT THE BASE OF THE INVERSION. SHOULD MIXING HEIGHTS BE GREATER
THAN FORECAST...AN EXPANSION IN TIME AND AREA OF THE ADVISORY MAY
BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN IMPACTS IN THE EXTENDED...WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
EVENING...RAIN/SNOW MONDAY.

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COMBINED WITH LARGE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IN EASTERN MONTANA...WILL BRING IN GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 40 MPH. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE (12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/SREF/NAM) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE TIME AND PLACEMENT OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF NORTH
DAKOTA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD BRING IN A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN AND
ENTER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A
BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS. IF THE TRACK ON
THE ECMWF HOLDS TRUE THEN VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
ECMWF IS ALSO WARMER THAN THE GFS...POINTING TO ALL RAIN PRECIP
RATHER THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX OF THE GFS. RIGHT NOW ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE
THE BAND OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT KISN TO TREND SCATTERED BETWEEN NOW
AND 09Z...AND FOR KDIK 08Z-10Z. OTHERWISE VFR ELSEWHERE AND FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH







000
FXUS63 KFGF 310438
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1138 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD INTO THE FA TONIGHT. WITH
CLEARING...DIMINISHING WIND AND LITTLE THERMAL RECOVERY TODAY WE
WILL SEE ONE OF OUR COLDER NIGHTS SO FAR WITH MOST AREAS AROUND
20.

SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SOLAR TOMORROW AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO
MN. SOME RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER WITH COLD START AND LOW SUN ANGLE TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY
TO GET OUT OF THE 30S.

TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP FRIDAY NIGHT.

A WARMER DAY SATURDAY WITH SOLAR AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION BUT
GUSTY SE WINDS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON ANY WARMING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MILDER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES ALONG WITH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET ABOVE AVERAGE.

LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF AK AND A LONG WAVE
RIDGE WAS OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. LONG WAVE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES
THIS PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/EASTERN CANADA RESPECTIVELY.

THE GFS IS THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND
THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF.

TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO ON MON AND TWO TO FOUR
DEGREES ON THU. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO ON
TUE AND WED FROM THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO 20KT ALONG AND WEST OF
THE VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 310251
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
951 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

COOL AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND EAST THIS EVENING.
LOWERED MINS ABOUT 3 DEGREES NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. CLOUDS
WILL NOW OCCUPY ONLY THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF FZDZ AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTHWEST BUT SHOULD ONLY BE
PATCHY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE SOUTH
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY THE WEST AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.
AFTER MIDNIGHT AGREE THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -FZDZ
OVER THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO WEAK UP SLOPE FLOW SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL
SUPER SATURATION ABOVE -10C WITH DRY AIR ABOVE. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND
STRONG WINDS FRIDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

VISIBLE SATELLITE THROUGH 2015 UTC SHOWS THAT THE STRATUS HAS
ERODED ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO
THE UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS GENERALLY ON TRACK...IF NOT
JUST A BIT SLOWER WHEN COMPARED TO THE LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS ON THE
17 THROUGH 19 UTC RAP AND HRRR ITERATIONS. STRATUS EROSION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS IN THE RAP/HRRR AND OBSERVED SATELLITE TRENDS THAT THE
STRATUS MAY LINER ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THUS...WITH SUNDOWN STRATUS BUILD DOWN IS
POSSIBLE...LEADING TO FOG AND POTENTIALLY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
WITH SATURATION WARMER THAN -10C ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR STRATUS FREE AREAS WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE SURFACE HIGH AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS.

FOR FRIDAY...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST FROM 18-00
UTC. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ARE FORECAST AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATING
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE STATIONARY LEE FRONT
ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. 0.5 KM WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS BY 00
UTC ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE RATHER SHALLOW GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED INVERSION. THUS...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHWEST HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF TAPING INTO THE STRONG WINDS
AT THE BASE OF THE INVERSION. SHOULD MIXING HEIGHTS BE GREATER
THAN FORECAST...AN EXPANSION IN TIME AND AREA OF THE ADVISORY MAY
BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN IMPACTS IN THE EXTENDED...WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
EVENING...RAIN/SNOW MONDAY.

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COMBINED WITH LARGE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IN EASTERN MONTANA...WILL BRING IN GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 40 MPH. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE (12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/SREF/NAM) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE TIME AND PLACEMENT OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF NORTH
DAKOTA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD BRING IN A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN AND
ENTER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A
BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS. IF THE TRACK ON
THE ECMWF HOLDS TRUE THEN VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
ECMWF IS ALSO WARMER THAN THE GFS...POINTING TO ALL RAIN PRECIP
RATHER THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX OF THE GFS. RIGHT NOW ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE BAND OF STRATUS CLOUDS
WESTWARD TO OCCUPY THE SOUTHWEST WHERE UP SLOPE FLOW SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ISSUES TONIGHT. AT THIS
TIME STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN TAF FOR KDIK BUT IFR WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST IF THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040-
041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 310248
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
948 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

WE WILL LOWER TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES IN THE NORTH AND
WEST...GIVEN IT IS ALREADY 19 IN WALHALLA AND CANDO. EXPECT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS PERHAPS GETTING
DOWN TO NEAR 10 ABOVE LOCALLY IN THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...A COLD
NIGHT FOR SURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD INTO THE FA TONIGHT. WITH
CLEARING...DIMINISHING WIND AND LITTLE THERMAL RECOVERY TODAY WE
WILL SEE ONE OF OUR COLDER NIGHTS SO FAR WITH MOST AREAS AROUND
20.

SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SOLAR TOMORROW AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO
MN. SOME RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER WITH COLD START AND LOW SUN ANGLE TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY
TO GET OUT OF THE 30S.

TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP FRIDAY NIGHT.

A WARMER DAY SATURDAY WITH SOLAR AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION BUT
GUSTY SE WINDS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON ANY WARMING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MILDER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES ALONG WITH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET ABOVE AVERAGE.

LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF AK AND A LONG WAVE
RIDGE WAS OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. LONG WAVE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES
THIS PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/EASTERN CANADA RESPECTIVELY.

THE GFS IS THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND
THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF.

TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO ON MON AND TWO TO FOUR
DEGREES ON THU. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO ON
TUE AND WED FROM THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SKIES BECOMING SKC ALL AREAS SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 302341
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE SOUTH
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY THE WEST AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.
AFTER MIDNIGHT AGREE THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -FZDZ
OVER THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO WEAK UP SLOPE FLOW SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL
SUPER SATURATION ABOVE -10C WITH DRY AIR ABOVE. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND
STRONG WINDS FRIDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

VISIBLE SATELLITE THROUGH 2015 UTC SHOWS THAT THE STRATUS HAS
ERODED ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO
THE UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS GENERALLY ON TRACK...IF NOT
JUST A BIT SLOWER WHEN COMPARED TO THE LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS ON THE
17 THROUGH 19 UTC RAP AND HRRR ITERATIONS. STRATUS EROSION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS IN THE RAP/HRRR AND OBSERVED SATELLITE TRENDS THAT THE
STRATUS MAY LINER ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THUS...WITH SUNDOWN STRATUS BUILD DOWN IS
POSSIBLE...LEADING TO FOG AND POTENTIALLY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
WITH SATURATION WARMER THAN -10C ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR STRATUS FREE AREAS WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE SURFACE HIGH AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS.

FOR FRIDAY...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST FROM 18-00
UTC. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ARE FORECAST AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATING
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE STATIONARY LEE FRONT
ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. 0.5 KM WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS BY 00
UTC ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE RATHER SHALLOW GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED INVERSION. THUS...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHWEST HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF TAPING INTO THE STRONG WINDS
AT THE BASE OF THE INVERSION. SHOULD MIXING HEIGHTS BE GREATER
THAN FORECAST...AN EXPANSION IN TIME AND AREA OF THE ADVISORY MAY
BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN IMPACTS IN THE EXTENDED...WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
EVENING...RAIN/SNOW MONDAY.

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COMBINED WITH LARGE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IN EASTERN MONTANA...WILL BRING IN GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 40 MPH. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE (12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/SREF/NAM) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE TIME AND PLACEMENT OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF NORTH
DAKOTA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD BRING IN A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN AND
ENTER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A
BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS. IF THE TRACK ON
THE ECMWF HOLDS TRUE THEN VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
ECMWF IS ALSO WARMER THAN THE GFS...POINTING TO ALL RAIN PRECIP
RATHER THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX OF THE GFS. RIGHT NOW ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ERODING THE STRATUS
QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS KBIS WILL CLEAR BY 02Z AND KISN BY
03Z. KDIK WILL BE IMPACTED BY LOW LEVEL UP SLOPE FLOW. THIS WILL
KEEP IFR TO LOW IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -FZDZ AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME
HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW BUT WILL MONITOR. CONDITIONS
BECOMING VFR AT KDIK AFTER 15Z. THEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO NEAR 40 KTS KDIK-KISN AFTER 18Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040-
041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 302327
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
627 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT FOR THE REGION WITH A 1040MB HIGH MOVING
OVER THE AREA. WE WILL LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES...WITH MOST AREAS
FROM 15-20 FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...PERHAPS SOME LOCALLY COOLER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD INTO THE FA TONIGHT. WITH
CLEARING...DIMINISHING WIND AND LITTLE THERMAL RECOVERY TODAY WE
WILL SEE ONE OF OUR COLDER NIGHTS SO FAR WITH MOST AREAS AROUND
20.

SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SOLAR TOMORROW AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO
MN. SOME RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER WITH COLD START AND LOW SUN ANGLE TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY
TO GET OUT OF THE 30S.

TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP FRIDAY NIGHT.

A WARMER DAY SATURDAY WITH SOLAR AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION BUT
GUSTY SE WINDS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON ANY WARMING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MILDER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES ALONG WITH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET ABOVE AVERAGE.

LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF AK AND A LONG WAVE
RIDGE WAS OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. LONG WAVE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES
THIS PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/EASTERN CANADA RESPECTIVELY.

THE GFS IS THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND
THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF.

TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO ON MON AND TWO TO FOUR
DEGREES ON THU. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO ON
TUE AND WED FROM THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SKIES BECOMING SKC ALL AREAS SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 302104
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND
STRONG WINDS FRIDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

VISIBLE SATELLITE THROUGH 2015 UTC SHOWS THAT THE STRATUS HAS
ERODED ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO
THE UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS GENERALLY ON TRACK...IF NOT
JUST A BIT SLOWER WHEN COMPARED TO THE LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS ON THE
17 THROUGH 19 UTC RAP AND HRRR ITERATIONS. STRATUS EROSION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS IN THE RAP/HRRR AND OBSERVED SATELLITE TRENDS THAT THE
STRATUS MAY LINER ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THUS...WITH SUNDOWN STRATUS BUILD DOWN IS
POSSIBLE...LEADING TO FOG AND POTENTIALLY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
WITH SATURATION WARMER THAN -10C ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR STRATUS FREE AREAS WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE SURFACE HIGH AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS.

FOR FRIDAY...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST FROM 18-00
UTC. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ARE FORECAST AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATING
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE STATIONARY LEE FRONT
ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. 0.5 KM WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS BY 00
UTC ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE RATHER SHALLOW GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED INVERSION. THUS...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHWEST HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF TAPING INTO THE STRONG WINDS
AT THE BASE OF THE INVERSION. SHOULD MIXING HEIGHTS BE GREATER
THAN FORECAST...AN EXPANSION IN TIME AND AREA OF THE ADVISORY MAY
BE POSSIBLE.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN IMPACTS IN THE EXTENDED...WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
EVENING...RAIN/SNOW MONDAY.

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COMBINED WITH LARGE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IN EASTERN MONTANA...WILL BRING IN GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 40 MPH. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE (12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/SREF/NAM) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE TIME AND PLACEMENT OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF NORTH
DAKOTA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD BRING IN A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN AND
ENTER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A
BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS. IF THE TRACK ON
THE ECMWF HOLDS TRUE THEN VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
ECMWF IS ALSO WARMER THAN THE GFS...POINTING TO ALL RAIN PRECIP
RATHER THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX OF THE GFS. RIGHT NOW ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE ACROSS ALL BUT FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THIS INCLUDES KDIK AND POSSIBLY
KISN...WHERE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...WITH SOME FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH
STRATUS BUILD DOWN. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST AREA WIDE
FRIDAY...THE STRONGEST BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KDIK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040-
041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD









000
FXUS63 KFGF 302013
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
313 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD INTO THE FA TONIGHT. WITH
CLEARING...DIMINISHING WIND AND LITTLE THERMAL RECOVERY TODAY WE
WILL SEE ONE OF OUR COLDER NIGHTS SO FAR WITH MOST AREAS AROUND
20.

SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SOLAR TOMORROW AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO
MN. SOME RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER WITH COLD START AND LOW SUN ANGLE TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY
TO GET OUT OF THE 30S.

TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP FRIDAY NIGHT.

A WARMER DAY SATURDAY WITH SOLAR AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION BUT
GUSTY SE WINDS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON ANY WARMING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MILDER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES ALONG WITH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET ABOVE AVERAGE.

LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF AK AND A LONG WAVE
RIDGE WAS OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. LONG WAVE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES
THIS PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/EASTERN CANADA RESPECTIVELY.

THE GFS IS THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND
THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF.

TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO ON MON AND TWO TO FOUR
DEGREES ON THU. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO ON
TUE AND WED FROM THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MOSTLY MVFR CIGS WERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN MAN.  OCCASIONAL VFR CIGS AROUND 4 THOUSAND FT
WERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. CLOUDS WERE MOVING TO THE SOUTH
AROUND 40 KNOTS. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS MAY RISE A BIT INTO THE 25 TO 35
HUNDRED FT CATEGORY FOR AREA THAT CURRENTLY HAVE CIGS AROUND 15
HUNDRED. SKY SHOULD CLEAR OFF AFTER SUNSET EXCEPT IN THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OFF LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO
SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 301814
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
114 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON TRACK AS STRATUS IS BEGINNING
TO ERODE ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 909 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS THE LATEST
12-13 UTC RAP ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO ERODE LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN
THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

REMOVED EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WORDING FROM THE
ZONES AS SURFACE OBS HAVE BEEN DRY ALL MORNING UNDER THE STRATUS
DECK CREEPING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

EFFECTS OF A LARGE CLOUD DECK MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TIMING OF CLOUDS DISSIPATING TODAY WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR JAMESTOWN WESTWARD
ALONG I-94. A LARGE CLOUD DECK IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WELL BEHIND
THE FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

THE COLD MOIST AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND THE
LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE STATE LATER THIS MORNING. SOME
OBSERVATION SITES WERE REPORTING FOG AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CLOUD DECK...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS STRATUS DECK MOVES
OVER AND WINDS PICK UP A BIT. THE FOG IN THE JAMES VALLEY MAY LINGER
UNTIL THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST AND THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...SO KEPT
A MENTION OF FOG THERE UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND
THE MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH TIME TODAY. EXPECTING
DISSIPATING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH.

BY FRIDAY MORNING THE HIGH CENTER SHOULD BE OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WITH A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WEST ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CLOSER TO THE
HIGH CENTER...TO THE 20S IN THE FAR WEST WITH THE SOUTHEAST WINDS
MIXING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW 20.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD ABATE BY SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE
ENTERS EASTERN MONTANA AND WEAKENS GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN IN MONTANA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE COULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
MORNING...WITH THE PRECIP TYPE LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CRESTS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
DEVELOPING NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A 130+ KT
UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS BROAD UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR TO IFR STRATUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KFGF 301758
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1258 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

PARTIAL CLEARING PUSHING INTO THE FAR NORTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. FEEL ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE HAS ABOUT PUSHED THROUGH SO TRIMMED POPS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

BASED ON UPSTREAM/LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY AS
WELL AS SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE FEEL ANY POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE PCPN WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FCST ON TRACK. ENHANCED CLOUDS ASSOC WITH LEADING EDGE OF SHORT
WAVE MOVING SOUTH ENTERING NE ND/FAR NW MN ATTM. SEEING A FEW WEAK
RETURNS ON RADAR WITH THIS AND PORTAGE MB REPORTS -SN AT 11Z. SO
IDEA OF A FEW SPITS/FLURRIES WITH SHORT WAVE SEEMS REASONABLE NRN
VALLEY AND NW MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

ONE 500 MB SHORTWAVE NEAR FARGO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SFC LOW
NORTH OF VALLEY CITY. AS THIS WAVE AND SFC LOW PASSES EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH THRU THE EARLY
MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
MINNESOTA MAINLY BEMIDJI AREA SOUTHWARD THRU MID MORNING. UPSTREAM
IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL RAPIDLY DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM
CENTRAL MANITOBA TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. EXPECT A FAST MOVING
SURGE OF COLD AIR TO DROP THRU THE AREA TODAY...WITH NORTH WIND
GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTN. SC WITH THIS FEATURE UPSTREAM
AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP ON OBS AT DAUPHIN MANITOBA. THIS CLOUD BAND
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MODELS HINT AT SOME
LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS WAVE MAINLY NRN RRV THRU NW MN.
SKIES WILL CLEAR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER NE ND AS STRONG DRYING
OCCURS IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO COLD ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL RISE
SOME TODAY BUT LIKELY STABILIZE OR FALL A FEW MID TO LATE AFTN.
HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO ERN/CNTRL ND BY 12Z FRIDAY AND WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING WIND EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SUNNY FRIDAY AS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WINDS SETTING UP FRI LATE AFTN IN ERN
ND. COOL DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS TO INCREASE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA. VERY DRY AIRMASS
AT THE LOW LEVELS SO NO PRECIP THRU SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL
MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM PROPAGATES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE A DAY OR
SO LATER. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND MOSTLY LIQUID
(ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD BE POSSIBLE). TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MOSTLY MVFR CIGS WERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN MAN.  OCCASIONAL VFR CIGS AROUND 4 THOUSAND FT
WERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. CLOUDS WERE MOVING TO THE SOUTH
AROUND 40 KNOTS. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS MAY RISE A BIT INTO THE 25 TO 35
HUNDRED FT CATEGORY FOR AREA THAT CURRENTLY HAVE CIGS AROUND 15
HUNDRED. SKY SHOULD CLEAR OFF AFTER SUNSET EXCEPT IN THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OFF LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO
SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 301431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
931 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

BASED ON UPSTREAM/LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY AS
WELL AS SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE FEEL ANY POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE PCPN WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FCST ON TRACK. ENHANCED CLOUDS ASSOC WITH LEADING EDGE OF SHORT
WAVE MOVING SOUTH ENTERING NE ND/FAR NW MN ATTM. SEEING A FEW WEAK
RETURNS ON RADAR WITH THIS AND PORTAGE MB REPORTS -SN AT 11Z. SO
IDEA OF A FEW SPITS/FLURRIES WITH SHORT WAVE SEEMS REASONABLE NRN
VALLEY AND NW MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

ONE 500 MB SHORTWAVE NEAR FARGO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SFC LOW
NORTH OF VALLEY CITY. AS THIS WAVE AND SFC LOW PASSES EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH THRU THE EARLY
MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
MINNESOTA MAINLY BEMIDJI AREA SOUTHWARD THRU MID MORNING. UPSTREAM
IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL RAPIDLY DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM
CENTRAL MANITOBA TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. EXPECT A FAST MOVING
SURGE OF COLD AIR TO DROP THRU THE AREA TODAY...WITH NORTH WIND
GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTN. SC WITH THIS FEATURE UPSTREAM
AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP ON OBS AT DAUPHIN MANITOBA. THIS CLOUD BAND
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MODELS HINT AT SOME
LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS WAVE MAINLY NRN RRV THRU NW MN.
SKIES WILL CLEAR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER NE ND AS STRONG DRYING
OCCURS IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO COLD ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL RISE
SOME TODAY BUT LIKELY STABILIZE OR FALL A FEW MID TO LATE AFTN.
HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO ERN/CNTRL ND BY 12Z FRIDAY AND WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING WIND EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SUNNY FRIDAY AS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WINDS SETTING UP FRI LATE AFTN IN ERN
ND. COOL DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS TO INCREASE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA. VERY DRY AIRMASS
AT THE LOW LEVELS SO NO PRECIP THRU SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL
MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM PROPAGATES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE A DAY OR
SO LATER. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND MOSTLY LIQUID
(ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD BE POSSIBLE). TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO DROP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THRU THE AREA
THIS MORNING AS SURFACE LOW DEPARTS TO OUR EAST. EXPECT WINDS TO
BE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE ALL AREAS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO NR 30 KTS ESP IN THE RRV. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER EITHER WITH DEPARTING SFC LOW IN
MINNESOTA OR DROPPING SOUTH FROM MANITOBA. PREDOMINATELY MVFR CIGS
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEARING WORKS SOUTH. ALREADY SEEING
SCATTERING OF CLOUDS ENTERING THE INTERLAKE REGION OF MANITOBA SO
WILL NEED TO WATCH CLEARING TRENDS TO BETTER TIME CLEARING THRU
THE DAY.   CLEAR SKY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KBIS 301409
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
909 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS THE LATEST
12-13 UTC RAP ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO ERODE LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN
THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

REMOVED EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WORDING FROM THE
ZONES AS SURFACE OBS HAVE BEEN DRY ALL MORNING UNDER THE STRATUS
DECK CREEPING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

EFFECTS OF A LARGE CLOUD DECK MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TIMING OF CLOUDS DISSIPATING TODAY WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR JAMESTOWN WESTWARD
ALONG I-94. A LARGE CLOUD DECK IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WELL BEHIND
THE FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

THE COLD MOIST AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND THE
LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE STATE LATER THIS MORNING. SOME
OBSERVATION SITES WERE REPORTING FOG AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CLOUD DECK...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS STRATUS DECK MOVES
OVER AND WINDS PICK UP A BIT. THE FOG IN THE JAMES VALLEY MAY LINGER
UNTIL THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST AND THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...SO KEPT
A MENTION OF FOG THERE UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND
THE MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH TIME TODAY. EXPECTING
DISSIPATING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH.

BY FRIDAY MORNING THE HIGH CENTER SHOULD BE OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WITH A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WEST ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CLOSER TO THE
HIGH CENTER...TO THE 20S IN THE FAR WEST WITH THE SOUTHEAST WINDS
MIXING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW 20.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD ABATE BY SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE
ENTERS EASTERN MONTANA AND WEAKENS GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN IN MONTANA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE COULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
MORNING...WITH THE PRECIP TYPE LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CRESTS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
DEVELOPING NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A 130+ KT
UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS BROAD UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 909 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR TO IFR STRATUS THIS MORNING ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE ERODING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KFGF 301202
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
702 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FCST ON TRACK. ENHANCED CLOUDS ASSOC WITH LEADING EDGE OF SHORT
WAVE MOVING SOUTH ENTERING NE ND/FAR NW MN ATTM. SEEING A FEW WEAK
RETURNS ON RADAR WITH THIS AND PORTAGE MB REPORTS -SN AT 11Z. SO
IDEA OF A FEW SPITS/FLURRIES WITH SHORT WAVE SEEMS REASONABLE NRN
VALLEY AND NW MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

ONE 500 MB SHORTWAVE NEAR FARGO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SFC LOW
NORTH OF VALLEY CITY. AS THIS WAVE AND SFC LOW PASSES EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH THRU THE EARLY
MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
MINNESOTA MAINLY BEMIDJ AREA SOUTHWARD THRU MID MORNING. UPSTREAM
IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL RAPIDLY DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM
CENTRAL MANITOBA TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. EXPECT A FAST MOVING
SURGE OF COLD AIR TO DROP THRU THE AREA TODAY...WITH NORTH WIND
GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTN. STRATOCU WITH THIS FEATURE UPSTREAM
AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP ON OBS AT DAUPHIN MANITOBA. THIS CLOUD BAND
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MODELS HINT AT SOME
LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS WAVE MAINLY NRN RRV THRU NW MN.
SKIES WILL CLEAR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER NE ND AS STRONG DRYING
OCCURS IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO COLD ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL RISE
SOME TODAY BUT LIKELY STABILIZE OR FALL A FEW MID TO LATE AFTN.
HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO ERN/CNTRL ND BY 12Z FRIDAY AND WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING WIND EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SUNNY FRIDAY AS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WINDS SETTING UP FRI LATE AFTN IN ERN
ND. COOL DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS TO INCREASE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA. VERY DRY AIRMASS
AT THE LOW LEVELS SO NO PRECIP THRU SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL
MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM PROPAGATES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE A DAY OR
SO LATER. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND MOSTLY LIQUID
(ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD BE POSSIBLE). TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO DROP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THRU THE AREA
THIS MORNING AS SURFACE LOW DEPARTS TO OUR EAST. EXPECT WINDS TO
BE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE ALL AREAS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO NR 30 KTS ESP IN THE RRV. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER EITHER WITH DEPARTING SFC LOW IN
MINNESOTA OR DROPPING SOUTH FROM MANITOBA. PREDOMINATELY MVFR CIGS
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEARING WORKS SOUTH. ALREADY SEEING
SCATTERING OF CLOUDS ENTERING THE INTERLAKE REGION OF MANITOBA SO
WILL NEED TO WATCH CLEARING TRENDS TO BETTER TIME CLEARING THRU
THE DAY.   CLEAR SKY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KBIS 301146
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
646 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

REMOVED EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WORDING FROM THE
ZONES AS SURFACE OBS HAVE BEEN DRY ALL MORNING UNDER THE STRATUS
DECK CREEPING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

EFFECTS OF A LARGE CLOUD DECK MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TIMING OF CLOUDS DISSIPATING TODAY WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR JAMESTOWN WESTWARD
ALONG I-94. A LARGE CLOUD DECK IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WELL BEHIND
THE FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

THE COLD MOIST AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND THE
LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE STATE LATER THIS MORNING. SOME
OBSERVATION SITES WERE REPORTING FOG AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CLOUD DECK...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS STRATUS DECK MOVES
OVER AND WINDS PICK UP A BIT. THE FOG IN THE JAMES VALLEY MAY LINGER
UNTIL THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST AND THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...SO KEPT
A MENTION OF FOG THERE UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND
THE MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH TIME TODAY. EXPECTING
DISSIPATING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH.

BY FRIDAY MORNING THE HIGH CENTER SHOULD BE OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WITH A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WEST ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CLOSER TO THE
HIGH CENTER...TO THE 20S IN THE FAR WEST WITH THE SOUTHEAST WINDS
MIXING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW 20.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD ABATE BY SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE
ENTERS EASTERN MONTANA AND WEAKENS GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN IN MONTANA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE COULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
MORNING...WITH THE PRECIP TYPE LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CRESTS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
DEVELOPING NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A 130+ KT
UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS BROAD UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

LARGE CLOUD DECK WITH MVFR AND EMBEDDED IFR CIGS OVER MOST OF
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. SOME
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG OCCURRING AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUD
DECK...THUS DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG TO LAST VERY LONG. MVFR AND IFR
CIGS SHOULD BECOME VFR GRADUALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 300833
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
333 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

EFFECTS OF A LARGE CLOUD DECK MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TIMING OF CLOUDS DISSIPATING TODAY WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR JAMESTOWN WESTWARD
ALONG I-94. A LARGE CLOUD DECK IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WELL BEHIND
THE FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

THE COLD MOIST AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND THE
LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE STATE LATER THIS MORNING. SOME
OBSERVATION SITES WERE REPORTING FOG AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CLOUD DECK...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS STRATUS DECK MOVES
OVER AND WINDS PICK UP A BIT. THE FOG IN THE JAMES VALLEY MAY LINGER
UNTIL THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST AND THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...SO KEPT
A MENTION OF FOG THERE UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND
THE MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH TIME TODAY. EXPECTING
DISSIPATING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH.

BY FRIDAY MORNING THE HIGH CENTER SHOULD BE OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WITH A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WEST ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CLOSER TO THE
HIGH CENTER...TO THE 20S IN THE FAR WEST WITH THE SOUTHEAST WINDS
MIXING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW 20.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD ABATE BY SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE
ENTERS EASTERN MONTANA AND WEAKENS GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN IN MONTANA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE COULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
MORNING...WITH THE PRECIP TYPE LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CRESTS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
DEVELOPING NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A 130+ KT
UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS BROAD UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

RAIN SHOWERS HAD MOVED EAST OF THE KJMS AREA. WILL ADD TEMPO GROUP
FOR FOG TO KBIS AND KJMS TAF. GETTING GROUND FOG SOUTH CENTRAL AS
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED AND SURFACE MOISTURE LIGHT WINDS COMBINE FOR
FOG. EXPECTING FOG TO DISSIPATE AS NORTHWEST WINDS ARRIVE AFTER
AROUND 09Z/10Z. SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR KDVL/KJMS WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR KMOT...AND WAS ALREADY SOUTH OF
KISN. WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST/NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT MVFR
AND IFR CIGS TO MOVE SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT...LAGGING THE FRONT BY
AN HOUR OR SO.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KFGF 300808
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
308 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

ONE 500 MB SHORTWAVE NEAR FARGO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SFC LOW
NORTH OF VALLEY CITY. AS THIS WAVE AND SFC LOW PASSES EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH THRU THE EARLY
MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
MINNESOTA MAINLY BEMIDJ AREA SOUTHWARD THRU MID MORNING. UPSTREAM
IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL RAPIDLY DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM
CENTRAL MANITOBA TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. EXPECT A FAST MOVING
SURGE OF COLD AIR TO DROP THRU THE AREA TODAY...WITH NORTH WIND
GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTN. STRATOCU WITH THIS FEATURE UPSTREAM
AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP ON OBS AT DAUPHIN MANITOBA. THIS CLOUD BAND
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MODELS HINT AT SOME
LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS WAVE MAINLY NRN RRV THRU NW MN.
SKIES WILL CLEAR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER NE ND AS STRONG DRYING
OCCURS IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO COLD ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL RISE
SOME TODAY BUT LIKELY STABILIZE OR FALL A FEW MID TO LATE AFTN.
HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO ERN/CNTRL ND BY 12Z FRIDAY AND WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING WIND EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SUNNY FRIDAY AS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WINDS SETTING UP FRI LATE AFTN IN ERN
ND. COOL DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS TO INCREASE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA. VERY DRY AIRMASS
AT THE LOW LEVELS SO NO PRECIP THRU SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL
MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM PROPAGATES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE A DAY OR
SO LATER. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND MOSTLY LIQUID
(ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD BE POSSIBLE). TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

CIG/VIS VFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
EXPECTING SOME MVFR CIGS TO WORK IN AFT 09Z AS BAND OF LOWERED
CIGS MOVE SE OUT OF CANADA. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR WINDS TO BE
GENERALLY SE 5-10 KTS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN WRN ND. BEHIND THE
LOW...EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP IN COLD ADVECTION.
THUS...SHOWED TREND OF INCREASING WINDS AROUND THE 12-16Z TIME
FRAME.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPKINS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 300547
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1247 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPDATED FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. CURRENTLY THE SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR DEVILS LAKE/JAMESTOWN WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR MINOT AND WILLISTON TO
THE MONTANA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. WINDS HAD TURNED NORTHWEST/NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. LARGE CLOUD DECK MOVING SOUTH AN HOUR OR TWO
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND EXPECT FRONT AND CLOUDS TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND WIND TRENDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...BUT MADE LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. KEPT MENTION OF POSSIBLE DRIZZLE AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. 00Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWED NO ICE CRYSTALS ABOVE STRATUS LAYER. LOWS IN THE NORTH
REACHING THE UPPER 20S...SO PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE LOW IN WHETHER PRECIP WILL MATERIALIZE...BUT
LATEST HIGH RES NMM AND ARW MODELS SHOWING SOME SPOTTY PRECIP
POSSIBLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPDATED FOR PATCHY FOG SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION LESS THAN 2. FOG SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATED WHEN
NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

SHOWERS ARE ENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS EVENING. TRENDED THE
POPS TO FIT THE LATEST RADAR. CLEARING SKIES ARE OVER A LARGE PART
OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE REPLACED WITH A STRATUS
AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM COOL AIR ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN. SO FAR SEE NO DRIZZLE/FZDZ YET IN SASK BUT WILL
MONITOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD
FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WERE TRACKING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH CLEARING ALREADY SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THE RAIN WILL
END ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. COOL AIR ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. COOL AIR STRATUS IS PRETTY
WIDESPREAD IN SASKATCHEWAN AND IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO REGINA. THIS
WILL MOVE INGOT WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DRY AIR ABOVE COULD CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN FOR ANY EVIDENCE FOR
THIS. SO FAR CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF US
HIGHWAY 2 AS OF 1945 UTC WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE
JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR
ITERATIONS...NAMELY THEIR 17-18 UTC RUNS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. THEREAFTER...LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SATURATION AT TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -10 C...PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURE FALL BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA...SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO WINDY (30-50 MPH) CONDITIONS SOUTHWEST FRIDAY...WITH
20-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. THIS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED WELL IN THE ENSEMBLE
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE USING THE V COMPONENT OF THE WIND. A
SOLID HIGH END WIND ADVISORY LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THE STRONGER GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS COULD
REACH 40 MPH POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A HIGH WIND WARNING. FOR NOW WILL
BLEND THE WEAKER NAM AND THE STRONGER GFS WHICH USUALLY IS A GOOD
COMBINATION IN THESE WARM AIR ADVECTION SITUATIONS. WILL LET
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS LOOK AT THE LATEST DATA FOR CHANGES. THE GRADIENT
SHIFTS EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED FURTHER EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT
CHILLY HIGHS ON FRIDAY...RANGING BETWEEN 35 TO 45. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 45 TO 55. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH SUNDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY WITH
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...MORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL.
EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WHERE
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST. COLDER AIR MONDAY BEHIND
THE SYSTEM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE AS A QUICK MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO SLIP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS
INITIALLY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WITH POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
CLIPPER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

RAIN SHOWERS HAD MOVED EAST OF THE KJMS AREA. WILL ADD TEMPO GROUP
FOR FOG TO KBIS AND KJMS TAF. GETTING GROUND FOG SOUTH CENTRAL AS
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED AND SURFACE MOISTURE LIGHT WINDS COMBINE FOR
FOG. EXPECTING FOG TO DISSIPATE AS NORTHWEST WINDS ARRIVE AFTER
AROUND 09Z/10Z. SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR KDVL/KJMS WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR KMOT...AND WAS ALREADY SOUTH OF
KISN. WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST/NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT MVFR
AND IFR CIGS TO MOVE SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT...LAGGING THE FRONT BY
AN HOUR OR SO.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 300437
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1137 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND TIMING WITH RESPECT TO
MOVEMENT ACROSS THE AREA STILL LOOKS GOOD. MAY GET A BIT OF A
BREAK IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT BUT SAT SHOWS ANOTHER AREA OF
CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. WILL KEEP TEMP TREND IN PLACE
FOR NOW BUT MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED LATER. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TARGET.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOK GOOD ATTM SO NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IS CLOUDS...TEMPS...AND PCPN FOR THIS UPDATE. SAT
SHOWS APPRECIABLE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...DO NOT LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO DROP OFF TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT
AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. SFC OBS SHOWING VERY LITTLE PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH RADAR RETURNS SO CUT BACK ON POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

CURRENT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ROUGHLY
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO (ND SIDE) THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MORE CLOUD
COVER IS MOVING IN FROM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WILL
LIKELY FILL THIS IN...HOWEVER NOW HAVE MORE HOPE THAN AT PREV
UPDATE THE WESTERN EDGE WILL FURTHER ERODE TO THOSE ZONES ALONG
THE VALLEY ON THE MN SIDE. FURTHER EAST...MAY SEE CLOUDS LINGER
WELL INTO THE NIGHT IN BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS/WADENA COUNTIES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY IN PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WITH ECMWF HAVING
THE MOST COVERAGE...THE NAM A SMALLER AREA BASICALLY TARGETING SE
ND...THE GEM E CNTRL ND AND THE GFS AN EAST/WEST BAND ORIENTED
ACROSS W CNTRL MN. THE HRRR COMP REF PRODUCT TENDS TO BRING
PRECIP INTO THE AREAS DEPICTED BY THE GEM/ECMWF (FURTHER NORTH)
AND A BLEND OF THESE MODELS IS WHAT I HAVE USED FOR POP
GRIDS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN VALLEY.

TONIGHT...SFC LOW WILL TRACK ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTL
BORDER...DROPPING INTO SRN MN BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF GROUND TRUTH FROM METARS IN ERN MT AND WRN
ND...MOST SITES SHOWING 6K CIGS AND NO PRECIP. RADAR AND OB FROM
KDIK DOES INDICATE PRECIP REACHING THE SFC AROUND AND SOUTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA. THESE ECHOES ARE MOVING NEARLY DUE EAST SO PRECIP
MAY STAY SOUTH OF HWY 2 CORRIDOR. WILL ADJUST POP GRIDS PRIOR TO 4
PM FCST ISSUANCE. PRECIP SHOULD ENTER WRN EDGE OF CWA AROUND OR
JUST AFTER 00Z AND LIKELY CLEAR ND BY 12Z.

TOMORROW...A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO AS MODEST COLD
ADVECTION BRINGS COOLER TEMPS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THIS COULD DRAW ENOUGH COLD AIR IN TO SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES IN
BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SNOW TO THE
FCST. WILL NOT HAVE ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY MELT ON THE WARMER
SURFACES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DROP DOWN FROM MANITOBA AND
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND BE DRY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES ON FRI
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST...WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITHIN AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. AM GENERALLY
TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO
SOME WEAK MIXING CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DVL BASIN. REGARDLESS COOLER AIR ADVECTED IN DURING THE DAY
WILL HELP DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 20S...PERHAPS
THE TEENS WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE FAR EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. MOST SOLAR WILL BE ON
SATURDAY AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S WITH QUITE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT
EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTS FROM CENTRAL
ND INTO CANADA. OVERALL AT THIS POINT PCPN AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH
LOW TO OUR NORTH ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A MIX AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND FROPA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

CIG/VIS VFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
EXPECTING SOME MVFR CIGS TO WORK IN AFT 09Z AS BAND OF LOWERED
CIGS MOVE SE OUT OF CANADA. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR WINDS TO BE
GENERALLY SE 5-10 KTS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN WRN ND. BEHIND THE
LOW...EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP IN COLD ADVECTION.
THUS...SHOWED TREND OF INCREASING WINDS AROUND THE 12-16Z TIME
FRAME.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPKINS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 300310
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1010 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPDATED FOR PATCHY FOG SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION LESS THAN 2. FOG SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATED WHEN
NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

SHOWERS ARE ENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS EVENING. TRENDED THE
POPS TO FIT THE LATEST RADAR. CLEARING SKIES ARE OVER A LARGE PART
OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE REPLACED WITH A STRATUS
AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM COOL AIR ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN. SO FAR SEE NO DRIZZLE/FZDZ YET IN SASK BUT WILL
MONITOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD
FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WERE TRACKING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH CLEARING ALREADY SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THE RAIN WILL
END ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. COOL AIR ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. COOL AIR STRATUS IS PRETTY
WIDESPREAD IN SASKATCHEWAN AND IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO REGINA. THIS
WILL MOVE INGOT WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DRY AIR ABOVE COULD CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN FOR ANY EVIDENCE FOR
THIS. SO FAR CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF US
HIGHWAY 2 AS OF 1945 UTC WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE
JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR
ITERATIONS...NAMELY THEIR 17-18 UTC RUNS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. THEREAFTER...LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SATURATION AT TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -10 C...PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURE FALL BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA...SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO WINDY (30-50 MPH) CONDITIONS SOUTHWEST FRIDAY...WITH
20-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. THIS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED WELL IN THE ENSEMBLE
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE USING THE V COMPONENT OF THE WIND. A
SOLID HIGH END WIND ADVISORY LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THE STRONGER GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS COULD
REACH 40 MPH POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A HIGH WIND WARNING. FOR NOW WILL
BLEND THE WEAKER NAM AND THE STRONGER GFS WHICH USUALLY IS A GOOD
COMBINATION IN THESE WARM AIR ADVECTION SITUATIONS. WILL LET
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS LOOK AT THE LATEST DATA FOR CHANGES. THE GRADIENT
SHIFTS EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED FURTHER EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT
CHILLY HIGHS ON FRIDAY...RANGING BETWEEN 35 TO 45. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 45 TO 55. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH SUNDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY WITH
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...MORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL.
EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WHERE
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST. COLDER AIR MONDAY BEHIND
THE SYSTEM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE AS A QUICK MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO SLIP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS
INITIALLY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WITH POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
CLIPPER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

WILL ADD FOG TO KBIS TAF. GETTING GROUND FOG SOUTH CENTRAL AS
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED AND SURFACE MOISTURE LIGHT WINDS COMBINE
FOR FOG, EXPECTING FOG TO DISSIPATE AS NORTHWEST WINDS ARRIVE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 300242
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOK GOOD ATTM SO NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IS CLOUDS...TEMPS...AND PCPN FOR THIS UPDATE. SAT
SHOWS APPRECIABLE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...DO NOT LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO DROP OFF TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT
AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. SFC OBS SHOWING VERY LITTLE PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH RADAR RETURNS SO CUT BACK ON POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

CURRENT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ROUGHLY
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO (ND SIDE) THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MORE CLOUD
COVER IS MOVING IN FROM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WILL
LIKELY FILL THIS IN...HOWEVER NOW HAVE MORE HOPE THAN AT PREV
UPDATE THE WESTERN EDGE WILL FURTHER ERODE TO THOSE ZONES ALONG
THE VALLEY ON THE MN SIDE. FURTHER EAST...MAY SEE CLOUDS LINGER
WELL INTO THE NIGHT IN BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS/WADENA COUNTIES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY IN PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WITH ECMWF HAVING
THE MOST COVERAGE...THE NAM A SMALLER AREA BASICALLY TARGETING SE
ND...THE GEM E CNTRL ND AND THE GFS AN EAST/WEST BAND ORIENTED
ACROSS W CNTRL MN. THE HRRR COMP REF PRODUCT TENDS TO BRING
PRECIP INTO THE AREAS DEPICTED BY THE GEM/ECMWF (FURTHER NORTH)
AND A BLEND OF THESE MODELS IS WHAT I HAVE USED FOR POP
GRIDS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN VALLEY.

TONIGHT...SFC LOW WILL TRACK ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTL
BORDER...DROPPING INTO SRN MN BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF GROUND TRUTH FROM METARS IN ERN MT AND WRN
ND...MOST SITES SHOWING 6K CIGS AND NO PRECIP. RADAR AND OB FROM
KDIK DOES INDICATE PRECIP REACHING THE SFC AROUND AND SOUTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA. THESE ECHOES ARE MOVING NEARLY DUE EAST SO PRECIP
MAY STAY SOUTH OF HWY 2 CORRIDOR. WILL ADJUST POP GRIDS PRIOR TO 4
PM FCST ISSUANCE. PRECIP SHOULD ENTER WRN EDGE OF CWA AROUND OR
JUST AFTER 00Z AND LIKELY CLEAR ND BY 12Z.

TOMORROW...A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO AS MODEST COLD
ADVECTION BRINGS COOLER TEMPS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THIS COULD DRAW ENOUGH COLD AIR IN TO SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES IN
BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SNOW TO THE
FCST. WILL NOT HAVE ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY MELT ON THE WARMER
SURFACES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DROP DOWN FROM MANITOBA AND
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND BE DRY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES ON FRI
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST...WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITHIN AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. AM GENERALLY
TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO
SOME WEAK MIXING CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DVL BASIN. REGARDLESS COOLER AIR ADVECTED IN DURING THE DAY
WILL HELP DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 20S...PERHAPS
THE TEENS WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE FAR EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. MOST SOLAR WILL BE ON
SATURDAY AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S WITH QUITE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT
EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTS FROM CENTRAL
ND INTO CANADA. OVERALL AT THIS POINT PCPN AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH
LOW TO OUR NORTH ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A MIX AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND FROPA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

AREA OF MVFR CIGS REMAINS FOR TVF AND BJI TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT
TO GO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP IN COLD ADVECTION.
THUS...SHOWED TREND OF INCREASING WINDS AFT 12-16Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPKINS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 300235
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
935 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

SHOWERS ARE ENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS EVENING. TRENDED THE
POPS TO FIT THE LATEST RADAR. CLEARING SKIES ARE OVER A LARGE PART
OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE REPLACED WITH A STRATUS
AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM COOL AIR ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN. SO FAR SEE NO DRIZZLE/FZDZ YET IN SASK BUT WILL
MONITOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD
FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WERE TRACKING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH CLEARING ALREADY SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THE RAIN WILL
END ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. COOL AIR ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. COOL AIR STRATUS IS PRETTY
WIDESPREAD IN SASKATCHEWAN AND IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO REGINA. THIS
WILL MOVE INGOT WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DRY AIR ABOVE COULD CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN FOR ANY EVIDENCE FOR
THIS. SO FAR CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF US
HIGHWAY 2 AS OF 1945 UTC WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE
JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR
ITERATIONS...NAMELY THEIR 17-18 UTC RUNS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. THEREAFTER...LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SATURATION AT TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -10 C...PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURE FALL BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA...SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO WINDY (30-50 MPH) CONDITIONS SOUTHWEST FRIDAY...WITH
20-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. THIS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED WELL IN THE ENSEMBLE
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE USING THE V COMPONENT OF THE WIND. A
SOLID HIGH END WIND ADVISORY LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THE STRONGER GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS COULD
REACH 40 MPH POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A HIGH WIND WARNING. FOR NOW WILL
BLEND THE WEAKER NAM AND THE STRONGER GFS WHICH USUALLY IS A GOOD
COMBINATION IN THESE WARM AIR ADVECTION SITUATIONS. WILL LET
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS LOOK AT THE LATEST DATA FOR CHANGES. THE GRADIENT
SHIFTS EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED FURTHER EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT
CHILLY HIGHS ON FRIDAY...RANGING BETWEEN 35 TO 45. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 45 TO 55. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH SUNDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY WITH
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...MORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL.
EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WHERE
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST. COLDER AIR MONDAY BEHIND
THE SYSTEM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE AS A QUICK MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO SLIP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS
INITIALLY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WITH POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
CLIPPER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING WEST INTO MONTANA. LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS ON THE COOL
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IN SASKATCHEWAN. WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS
CURRENTLY IFR WHILE THE EASTERN PORTION IN SASK LOW MVFR. LESS
UNCERTAINTY NOW ABOUT IFR CONDITIONS WESTERN ND AND EXPECT THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR KISN-KMOT-KDIK AS THIS STRATUS MOVES SOUTH.
PATCHY DRIZZLE/FZDZ POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 292351
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IS CLOUDS...TEMPS...AND PCPN FOR THIS UPDATE. SAT
SHOWS APPRECIABLE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...DO NOT LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO DROP OFF TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT
AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. SFC OBS SHOWING VERY LITTLE PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH RADAR RETURNS SO CUT BACK ON POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

CURRENT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ROUGHLY
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO (ND SIDE) THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MORE CLOUD
COVER IS MOVING IN FROM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WILL
LIKELY FILL THIS IN...HOWEVER NOW HAVE MORE HOPE THAN AT PREV
UPDATE THE WESTERN EDGE WILL FURTHER ERODE TO THOSE ZONES ALONG
THE VALLEY ON THE MN SIDE. FURTHER EAST...MAY SEE CLOUDS LINGER
WELL INTO THE NIGHT IN BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS/WADENA COUNTIES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY IN PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WITH ECMWF HAVING
THE MOST COVERAGE...THE NAM A SMALLER AREA BASICALLY TARGETING SE
ND...THE GEM E CNTRL ND AND THE GFS AN EAST/WEST BAND ORIENTED
ACROSS W CNTRL MN. THE HRRR COMP REF PRODUCT TENDS TO BRING
PRECIP INTO THE AREAS DEPICTED BY THE GEM/ECMWF (FURTHER NORTH)
AND A BLEND OF THESE MODELS IS WHAT I HAVE USED FOR POP
GRIDS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN VALLEY.

TONIGHT...SFC LOW WILL TRACK ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTL
BORDER...DROPPING INTO SRN MN BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF GROUND TRUTH FROM METARS IN ERN MT AND WRN
ND...MOST SITES SHOWING 6K CIGS AND NO PRECIP. RADAR AND OB FROM
KDIK DOES INDICATE PRECIP REACHING THE SFC AROUND AND SOUTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA. THESE ECHOES ARE MOVING NEARLY DUE EAST SO PRECIP
MAY STAY SOUTH OF HWY 2 CORRIDOR. WILL ADJUST POP GRIDS PRIOR TO 4
PM FCST ISSUANCE. PRECIP SHOULD ENTER WRN EDGE OF CWA AROUND OR
JUST AFTER 00Z AND LIKELY CLEAR ND BY 12Z.

TOMORROW...A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO AS MODEST COLD
ADVECTION BRINGS COOLER TEMPS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THIS COULD DRAW ENOUGH COLD AIR IN TO SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES IN
BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SNOW TO THE
FCST. WILL NOT HAVE ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY MELT ON THE WARMER
SURFACES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DROP DOWN FROM MANITOBA AND
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND BE DRY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES ON FRI
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST...WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITHIN AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. AM GENERALLY
TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO
SOME WEAK MIXING CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DVL BASIN. REGARDLESS COOLER AIR ADVECTED IN DURING THE DAY
WILL HELP DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 20S...PERHAPS
THE TEENS WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE FAR EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. MOST SOLAR WILL BE ON
SATURDAY AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S WITH QUITE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT
EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTS FROM CENTRAL
ND INTO CANADA. OVERALL AT THIS POINT PCPN AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH
LOW TO OUR NORTH ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A MIX AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND FROPA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

AREA OF MVFR CIGS REMAINS FOR TVF AND BJI TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT
TO GO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP IN COLD ADVECTION.
THUS...SHOWED TREND OF INCREASING WINDS AFT 12-16Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPKINS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 292330
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
630 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD
FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WERE TRACKING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH CLEARING ALREADY SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THE RAIN WILL
END ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. COOL AIR ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. COOL AIR STRATUS IS PRETTY
WIDESPREAD IN SASKATCHEWAN AND IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO REGINA. THIS
WILL MOVE INGOT WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DRY AIR ABOVE COULD CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN FOR ANY EVIDENCE FOR
THIS. SO FAR CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF US
HIGHWAY 2 AS OF 1945 UTC WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE
JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR
ITERATIONS...NAMELY THEIR 17-18 UTC RUNS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. THEREAFTER...LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SATURATION AT TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -10 C...PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURE FALL BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA...SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO WINDY (30-50 MPH) CONDITIONS SOUTHWEST FRIDAY...WITH
20-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. THIS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED WELL IN THE ENSEMBLE
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE USING THE V COMPONENT OF THE WIND. A
SOLID HIGH END WIND ADVISORY LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THE STRONGER GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS COULD
REACH 40 MPH POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A HIGH WIND WARNING. FOR NOW WILL
BLEND THE WEAKER NAM AND THE STRONGER GFS WHICH USUALLY IS A GOOD
COMBINATION IN THESE WARM AIR ADVECTION SITUATIONS. WILL LET
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS LOOK AT THE LATEST DATA FOR CHANGES. THE GRADIENT
SHIFTS EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED FURTHER EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT
CHILLY HIGHS ON FRIDAY...RANGING BETWEEN 35 TO 45. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 45 TO 55. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH SUNDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY WITH
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...MORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL.
EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WHERE
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST. COLDER AIR MONDAY BEHIND
THE SYSTEM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE AS A QUICK MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO SLIP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS
INITIALLY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WITH POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
CLIPPER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

AT 6 PM CDT...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WAS MOVING
EAST. THE LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 05Z. THE COOL AIR STRATUS WILL
SPREAD SOUTH FROM SASKATCHEWAN LATE TONIGHT BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS.
PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE KISN-KMOT BETWEEN 10Z-12Z.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 17Z.
&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 292003
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
303 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

CURRENT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ROUGHLY
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO (ND SIDE) THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MORE CLOUD
COVER IS MOVING IN FROM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WILL
LIKELY FILL THIS IN...HOWEVER NOW HAVE MORE HOPE THAN AT PREV
UPDATE THE WESTERN EDGE WILL FURTHER ERODE TO THOSE ZONES ALONG
THE VALLEY ON THE MN SIDE. FURTHER EAST...MAY SEE CLOUDS LINGER
WELL INTO THE NIGHT IN BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS/WADENA COUNTIES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY IN PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WITH ECMWF HAVING
THE MOST COVERAGE...THE NAM A SMALLER AREA BASICALLY TARGETING SE
ND...THE GEM E CNTRL ND AND THE GFS AN EAST/WEST BAND ORIENTED
ACROSS W CNTRL MN. THE HRRR COMP REF PRODUCT TENDS TO BRING
PRECIP INTO THE AREAS DEPICTED BY THE GEM/ECMWF (FURTHER NORTH)
AND A BLEND OF THESE MODELS IS WHAT I HAVE USED FOR POP
GRIDS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN VALLEY.

TONIGHT...SFC LOW WILL TRACK ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTL
BORDER...DROPPING INTO SRN MN BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF GROUND TRUTH FROM METARS IN ERN MT AND WRN
ND...MOST SITES SHOWING 6K CIGS AND NO PRECIP. RADAR AND OB FROM
KDIK DOES INDICATE PRECIP REACHING THE SFC AROUND AND SOUTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA. THESE ECHOES ARE MOVING NEARLY DUE EAST SO PRECIP
MAY STAY SOUTH OF HWY 2 CORRIDOR. WILL ADJUST POP GRIDS PRIOR TO 4
PM FCST ISSUANCE. PRECIP SHOULD ENTER WRN EDGE OF CWA AROUND OR
JUST AFTER 00Z AND LIKELY CLEAR ND BY 12Z.

TOMORROW...A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO AS MODEST COLD
ADVECTION BRINGS COOLER TEMPS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THIS COULD DRAW ENOUGH COLD AIR IN TO SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES IN
BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SNOW TO THE
FCST. WILL NOT HAVE ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY MELT ON THE WARMER
SURFACES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DROP DOWN FROM MANITOBA AND
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND BE DRY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES ON FRI
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST...WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITHIN AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. AM GENERALLY
TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO
SOME WEAK MIXING CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DVL BASIN. REGARDLESS COOLER AIR ADVECTED IN DURING THE DAY
WILL HELP DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 20S...PERHAPS
THE TEENS WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE FAR EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. MOST SOLAR WILL BE ON
SATURDAY AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S WITH QUITE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT
EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTS FROM CENTRAL
ND INTO CANADA. OVERALL AT THIS POINT PCPN AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH
LOW TO OUR NORTH ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A MIX AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND FROPA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

DID BEST ATTEMPT WITH CLEARING/OR LIFTING CIGS INTO VFR FROM WEST TO
EAST. DVL TO LIFT TO VFR SOON WITH HOPEFULLY GFK/FAR LATE AFTERNOON
AND BJI EARLY EVENING. PCPN SO FAR THIS EVENING SPOTTY AND HANDLED
WITH VCSH UNTIL WE GET BETTER DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 291957
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
257 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF US
HIGHWAY 2 AS OF 1945 UTC WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE
JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR
ITERATIONS...NAMELY THEIR 17-18 UTC RUNS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. THEREAFTER...LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SATURATION AT TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -10 C...PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURE FALL BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA...SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO WINDY (30-50 MPH) CONDITIONS SOUTHWEST FRIDAY...WITH
20-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. THIS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED WELL IN THE ENSEMBLE
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE USING THE V COMPONENT OF THE WIND. A
SOLID HIGH END WIND ADVISORY LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THE STRONGER GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS COULD
REACH 40 MPH POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A HIGH WIND WARNING. FOR NOW WILL
BLEND THE WEAKER NAM AND THE STRONGER GFS WHICH USUALLY IS A GOOD
COMBINATION IN THESE WARM AIR ADVECTION SITUATIONS. WILL LET
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS LOOK AT THE LATEST DATA FOR CHANGES. THE GRADIENT
SHIFTS EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED FURTHER EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT
CHILLY HIGHS ON FRIDAY...RANGING BETWEEN 35 TO 45. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 45 TO 55. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH SUNDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY WITH
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...MORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL.
EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WHERE
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST. COLDER AIR MONDAY BEHIND
THE SYSTEM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE AS A QUICK MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO SLIP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS
INITIALLY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WITH POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
CLIPPER WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

LIGHT RAIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WITH DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD







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