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000
FXUS63 KBIS 110050
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
650 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT INTO
TODAY HAS MOVED WELL SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
FROM MANITOBA INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA...WHILE A
LEE SIDE TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CANADIAN
ROCKIES.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND
COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...T/TD SPREAD REMAIN
PRETTY HIGH ACROSS THE WEST WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. THUS THINK THE RISK OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING IS MINIMAL. AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN AND DRY LAYERS ALOFT...CONDUCIVE TO DRIZZLE QUICKLY MOISTEN
UP. THUS HAVE ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FOG AS SURFACE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW/BOUNDARY STRETCHING THROUGH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA WHILE HIGH
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW
LINGERS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER JET STREAK WORKS ITS WAY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET CONTINUES ON ITS WAY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...WHILE OVER THE SOUTHWEST LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME FOG WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
MAY DEVELOP. LATER TONIGHT BROAD SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION
RESULTING IN AN ELONGATED AREA OF MODEST LIFT OVER WESTERN PARTS
OF NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHERLY.

FOR THURSDAY...BROAD AREA OF MODEST LIFT SPREADS EASTERLY INTO
CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
SPREADING FROM WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE WHERE A BROAD SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL. OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...WARMER CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAIN
DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
SEVERAL WAVES ACROSS THE REGION.

THE FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY. AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SHIFTS WEST...SNOW WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...GENERALLY AROUND ONE INCH.

THE NEXT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEMS
AS THIS WAVE WILL HAVE MORE OF A PACIFIC COMPONENT TO IT. WHILE
FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TOO STRONG WITH THIS WAVE...PERSISTENT
LIGHT SNOW WITH BROAD SCALE LIFT OVER A 36 HOUR PERIOD COULD
BRING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. MODELS ARE JUST
BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM...SO DETAILS WILL BE FURTHER REFINED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND AMOUNTS/PRECIP TYPE COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND SCATTERED IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST TO
START THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXPECT
IFR CEILINGS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...INCLUDING AT KISN...KDIK
AND KBIS. THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING (12Z-18Z)
THEN LIFTING TO MVFR AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT MOVE
INTO KISN AND KDIK APPROX 12-18Z THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 110050
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
650 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT INTO
TODAY HAS MOVED WELL SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
FROM MANITOBA INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA...WHILE A
LEE SIDE TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CANADIAN
ROCKIES.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND
COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...T/TD SPREAD REMAIN
PRETTY HIGH ACROSS THE WEST WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. THUS THINK THE RISK OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING IS MINIMAL. AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN AND DRY LAYERS ALOFT...CONDUCIVE TO DRIZZLE QUICKLY MOISTEN
UP. THUS HAVE ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FOG AS SURFACE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW/BOUNDARY STRETCHING THROUGH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA WHILE HIGH
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW
LINGERS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER JET STREAK WORKS ITS WAY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET CONTINUES ON ITS WAY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...WHILE OVER THE SOUTHWEST LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME FOG WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
MAY DEVELOP. LATER TONIGHT BROAD SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION
RESULTING IN AN ELONGATED AREA OF MODEST LIFT OVER WESTERN PARTS
OF NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHERLY.

FOR THURSDAY...BROAD AREA OF MODEST LIFT SPREADS EASTERLY INTO
CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
SPREADING FROM WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE WHERE A BROAD SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL. OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...WARMER CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAIN
DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
SEVERAL WAVES ACROSS THE REGION.

THE FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY. AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SHIFTS WEST...SNOW WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...GENERALLY AROUND ONE INCH.

THE NEXT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEMS
AS THIS WAVE WILL HAVE MORE OF A PACIFIC COMPONENT TO IT. WHILE
FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TOO STRONG WITH THIS WAVE...PERSISTENT
LIGHT SNOW WITH BROAD SCALE LIFT OVER A 36 HOUR PERIOD COULD
BRING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. MODELS ARE JUST
BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM...SO DETAILS WILL BE FURTHER REFINED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND AMOUNTS/PRECIP TYPE COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND SCATTERED IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST TO
START THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXPECT
IFR CEILINGS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...INCLUDING AT KISN...KDIK
AND KBIS. THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING (12Z-18Z)
THEN LIFTING TO MVFR AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT MOVE
INTO KISN AND KDIK APPROX 12-18Z THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KFGF 110034
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE FA UNDER THE THICKER
CLOUDS. HOWEVER THERE ARE HOLES OVER THE NORTHEAST FA AROUND THE
LAKE OF THE WOODS. TEMPS IN THAT REGION ARE ALREADY AROUND ZERO SO
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE COLDEST AGAIN THERE. FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED SO NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

CHALLENGE THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE CLOUDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING ONGOING. DID ADD SOME LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...NO ACCUMULATIONS.

CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WILL BE PLACEMENT OF THE
CLOUDS AS A DETERMINING FACTOR FOR HOW FAR TEMPS FALL OFF FOR LOWS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM MODEL RH
FIELDS AND AVIATION CIG GUIDANCE IS THAT A SIMILAR CLOUD TREND
WILL OCCUR AS LAST NIGHT. EVENING CLEARING LINE WILL MOVE IN FROM
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...REACHING A LANGDON TO CROOKSTON TO PARK RAPIDS
LINE BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE PUSHES THEM BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. NW MN
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS OR
COLDER...BDE AT MINUS 23 THIS MORNING...TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN
AREAS UNDER THE CLOUDS.

THURSDAY DAYTIME WILL SEE THE SAME...WITH MORE CLOUDS WEST AND
POSSIBLY SOME SUN EAST. DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF -SN IN THE FAR SW
IN THE AFTN AND EVENING...LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUM. NORTH WINDS
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BEGINS TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION...CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN
IMPRESSIVE 1040MB PLUS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. ARCTIC COLD TEMPS
PUSH SOUTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH STEADY TO FALLING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH 925MB TEMPS
IN THE 20C TO 28C BELOW ZERO AND PWATS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH INDICATING CLEAR SKIES AND THE SFC HIGH CENTER OVER THE
VALLEY BY SAT 12Z...EXPECTING LOWS IN THE 15 TO 25 BELOW...MAY
NEED TO GO COLDER. WARMUP SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...MODELS BRING QPF IN SATURDAY
AFTN...THINKING SE WINDS WILL LIKELY ENTRAIN DRY AIRMASS
UNDERNEATH PRECIP BAND. DELAYED POPS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY FOR THE
VALLEY.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THE PERIOD SHOULD START OUT WITH WARMING
TEMPS AND SOME SNOW IN WAA ZONE SAT NIGHT/SUN. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW NEARLY ANY DAY NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

DESPITE HAVING CLOUD COVER AT ALL THE TAF SITES THE CEILINGS ARE
ALL IN THE VFR RANGE. MODELS SHOW NO REAL CHANGE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY THU AT KDVL...WITH SOME LOWERING CEILINGS
POSSIBLE THERE. HOWEVER DESPITE SOME LOWERING HAVE KEPT THE
CEILINGS IN THE VFR RANGE. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 110034
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE FA UNDER THE THICKER
CLOUDS. HOWEVER THERE ARE HOLES OVER THE NORTHEAST FA AROUND THE
LAKE OF THE WOODS. TEMPS IN THAT REGION ARE ALREADY AROUND ZERO SO
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE COLDEST AGAIN THERE. FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED SO NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

CHALLENGE THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE CLOUDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING ONGOING. DID ADD SOME LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...NO ACCUMULATIONS.

CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WILL BE PLACEMENT OF THE
CLOUDS AS A DETERMINING FACTOR FOR HOW FAR TEMPS FALL OFF FOR LOWS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM MODEL RH
FIELDS AND AVIATION CIG GUIDANCE IS THAT A SIMILAR CLOUD TREND
WILL OCCUR AS LAST NIGHT. EVENING CLEARING LINE WILL MOVE IN FROM
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...REACHING A LANGDON TO CROOKSTON TO PARK RAPIDS
LINE BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE PUSHES THEM BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. NW MN
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS OR
COLDER...BDE AT MINUS 23 THIS MORNING...TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN
AREAS UNDER THE CLOUDS.

THURSDAY DAYTIME WILL SEE THE SAME...WITH MORE CLOUDS WEST AND
POSSIBLY SOME SUN EAST. DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF -SN IN THE FAR SW
IN THE AFTN AND EVENING...LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUM. NORTH WINDS
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BEGINS TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION...CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN
IMPRESSIVE 1040MB PLUS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. ARCTIC COLD TEMPS
PUSH SOUTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH STEADY TO FALLING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH 925MB TEMPS
IN THE 20C TO 28C BELOW ZERO AND PWATS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH INDICATING CLEAR SKIES AND THE SFC HIGH CENTER OVER THE
VALLEY BY SAT 12Z...EXPECTING LOWS IN THE 15 TO 25 BELOW...MAY
NEED TO GO COLDER. WARMUP SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...MODELS BRING QPF IN SATURDAY
AFTN...THINKING SE WINDS WILL LIKELY ENTRAIN DRY AIRMASS
UNDERNEATH PRECIP BAND. DELAYED POPS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY FOR THE
VALLEY.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THE PERIOD SHOULD START OUT WITH WARMING
TEMPS AND SOME SNOW IN WAA ZONE SAT NIGHT/SUN. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW NEARLY ANY DAY NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

DESPITE HAVING CLOUD COVER AT ALL THE TAF SITES THE CEILINGS ARE
ALL IN THE VFR RANGE. MODELS SHOW NO REAL CHANGE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY THU AT KDVL...WITH SOME LOWERING CEILINGS
POSSIBLE THERE. HOWEVER DESPITE SOME LOWERING HAVE KEPT THE
CEILINGS IN THE VFR RANGE. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 110034
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE FA UNDER THE THICKER
CLOUDS. HOWEVER THERE ARE HOLES OVER THE NORTHEAST FA AROUND THE
LAKE OF THE WOODS. TEMPS IN THAT REGION ARE ALREADY AROUND ZERO SO
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE COLDEST AGAIN THERE. FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED SO NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

CHALLENGE THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE CLOUDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING ONGOING. DID ADD SOME LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...NO ACCUMULATIONS.

CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WILL BE PLACEMENT OF THE
CLOUDS AS A DETERMINING FACTOR FOR HOW FAR TEMPS FALL OFF FOR LOWS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM MODEL RH
FIELDS AND AVIATION CIG GUIDANCE IS THAT A SIMILAR CLOUD TREND
WILL OCCUR AS LAST NIGHT. EVENING CLEARING LINE WILL MOVE IN FROM
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...REACHING A LANGDON TO CROOKSTON TO PARK RAPIDS
LINE BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE PUSHES THEM BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. NW MN
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS OR
COLDER...BDE AT MINUS 23 THIS MORNING...TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN
AREAS UNDER THE CLOUDS.

THURSDAY DAYTIME WILL SEE THE SAME...WITH MORE CLOUDS WEST AND
POSSIBLY SOME SUN EAST. DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF -SN IN THE FAR SW
IN THE AFTN AND EVENING...LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUM. NORTH WINDS
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BEGINS TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION...CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN
IMPRESSIVE 1040MB PLUS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. ARCTIC COLD TEMPS
PUSH SOUTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH STEADY TO FALLING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH 925MB TEMPS
IN THE 20C TO 28C BELOW ZERO AND PWATS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH INDICATING CLEAR SKIES AND THE SFC HIGH CENTER OVER THE
VALLEY BY SAT 12Z...EXPECTING LOWS IN THE 15 TO 25 BELOW...MAY
NEED TO GO COLDER. WARMUP SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...MODELS BRING QPF IN SATURDAY
AFTN...THINKING SE WINDS WILL LIKELY ENTRAIN DRY AIRMASS
UNDERNEATH PRECIP BAND. DELAYED POPS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY FOR THE
VALLEY.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THE PERIOD SHOULD START OUT WITH WARMING
TEMPS AND SOME SNOW IN WAA ZONE SAT NIGHT/SUN. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW NEARLY ANY DAY NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

DESPITE HAVING CLOUD COVER AT ALL THE TAF SITES THE CEILINGS ARE
ALL IN THE VFR RANGE. MODELS SHOW NO REAL CHANGE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY THU AT KDVL...WITH SOME LOWERING CEILINGS
POSSIBLE THERE. HOWEVER DESPITE SOME LOWERING HAVE KEPT THE
CEILINGS IN THE VFR RANGE. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 110034
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE FA UNDER THE THICKER
CLOUDS. HOWEVER THERE ARE HOLES OVER THE NORTHEAST FA AROUND THE
LAKE OF THE WOODS. TEMPS IN THAT REGION ARE ALREADY AROUND ZERO SO
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE COLDEST AGAIN THERE. FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED SO NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

CHALLENGE THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE CLOUDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING ONGOING. DID ADD SOME LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...NO ACCUMULATIONS.

CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WILL BE PLACEMENT OF THE
CLOUDS AS A DETERMINING FACTOR FOR HOW FAR TEMPS FALL OFF FOR LOWS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM MODEL RH
FIELDS AND AVIATION CIG GUIDANCE IS THAT A SIMILAR CLOUD TREND
WILL OCCUR AS LAST NIGHT. EVENING CLEARING LINE WILL MOVE IN FROM
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...REACHING A LANGDON TO CROOKSTON TO PARK RAPIDS
LINE BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE PUSHES THEM BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. NW MN
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS OR
COLDER...BDE AT MINUS 23 THIS MORNING...TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN
AREAS UNDER THE CLOUDS.

THURSDAY DAYTIME WILL SEE THE SAME...WITH MORE CLOUDS WEST AND
POSSIBLY SOME SUN EAST. DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF -SN IN THE FAR SW
IN THE AFTN AND EVENING...LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUM. NORTH WINDS
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BEGINS TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION...CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN
IMPRESSIVE 1040MB PLUS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. ARCTIC COLD TEMPS
PUSH SOUTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH STEADY TO FALLING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH 925MB TEMPS
IN THE 20C TO 28C BELOW ZERO AND PWATS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH INDICATING CLEAR SKIES AND THE SFC HIGH CENTER OVER THE
VALLEY BY SAT 12Z...EXPECTING LOWS IN THE 15 TO 25 BELOW...MAY
NEED TO GO COLDER. WARMUP SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...MODELS BRING QPF IN SATURDAY
AFTN...THINKING SE WINDS WILL LIKELY ENTRAIN DRY AIRMASS
UNDERNEATH PRECIP BAND. DELAYED POPS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY FOR THE
VALLEY.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THE PERIOD SHOULD START OUT WITH WARMING
TEMPS AND SOME SNOW IN WAA ZONE SAT NIGHT/SUN. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW NEARLY ANY DAY NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

DESPITE HAVING CLOUD COVER AT ALL THE TAF SITES THE CEILINGS ARE
ALL IN THE VFR RANGE. MODELS SHOW NO REAL CHANGE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY THU AT KDVL...WITH SOME LOWERING CEILINGS
POSSIBLE THERE. HOWEVER DESPITE SOME LOWERING HAVE KEPT THE
CEILINGS IN THE VFR RANGE. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 110034
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE FA UNDER THE THICKER
CLOUDS. HOWEVER THERE ARE HOLES OVER THE NORTHEAST FA AROUND THE
LAKE OF THE WOODS. TEMPS IN THAT REGION ARE ALREADY AROUND ZERO SO
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE COLDEST AGAIN THERE. FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED SO NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

CHALLENGE THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE CLOUDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING ONGOING. DID ADD SOME LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...NO ACCUMULATIONS.

CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WILL BE PLACEMENT OF THE
CLOUDS AS A DETERMINING FACTOR FOR HOW FAR TEMPS FALL OFF FOR LOWS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM MODEL RH
FIELDS AND AVIATION CIG GUIDANCE IS THAT A SIMILAR CLOUD TREND
WILL OCCUR AS LAST NIGHT. EVENING CLEARING LINE WILL MOVE IN FROM
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...REACHING A LANGDON TO CROOKSTON TO PARK RAPIDS
LINE BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE PUSHES THEM BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. NW MN
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS OR
COLDER...BDE AT MINUS 23 THIS MORNING...TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN
AREAS UNDER THE CLOUDS.

THURSDAY DAYTIME WILL SEE THE SAME...WITH MORE CLOUDS WEST AND
POSSIBLY SOME SUN EAST. DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF -SN IN THE FAR SW
IN THE AFTN AND EVENING...LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUM. NORTH WINDS
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BEGINS TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION...CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN
IMPRESSIVE 1040MB PLUS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. ARCTIC COLD TEMPS
PUSH SOUTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH STEADY TO FALLING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH 925MB TEMPS
IN THE 20C TO 28C BELOW ZERO AND PWATS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH INDICATING CLEAR SKIES AND THE SFC HIGH CENTER OVER THE
VALLEY BY SAT 12Z...EXPECTING LOWS IN THE 15 TO 25 BELOW...MAY
NEED TO GO COLDER. WARMUP SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...MODELS BRING QPF IN SATURDAY
AFTN...THINKING SE WINDS WILL LIKELY ENTRAIN DRY AIRMASS
UNDERNEATH PRECIP BAND. DELAYED POPS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY FOR THE
VALLEY.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THE PERIOD SHOULD START OUT WITH WARMING
TEMPS AND SOME SNOW IN WAA ZONE SAT NIGHT/SUN. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW NEARLY ANY DAY NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

DESPITE HAVING CLOUD COVER AT ALL THE TAF SITES THE CEILINGS ARE
ALL IN THE VFR RANGE. MODELS SHOW NO REAL CHANGE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY THU AT KDVL...WITH SOME LOWERING CEILINGS
POSSIBLE THERE. HOWEVER DESPITE SOME LOWERING HAVE KEPT THE
CEILINGS IN THE VFR RANGE. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KBIS 102133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
333 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW/BOUNDARY STRETCHING THROUGH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA WHILE HIGH
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW
LINGERS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER JET STREAK WORKS ITS WAY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET CONTINUES ON ITS WAY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...WHILE OVER THE SOUTHWEST LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME FOG WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
MAY DEVELOP. LATER TONIGHT BROAD SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION
RESULTING IN AN ELONGATED AREA OF MODEST LIFT OVER WESTERN PARTS
OF NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHERLY.

FOR THURSDAY...BROAD AREA OF MODEST LIFT SPREADS EASTERLY INTO
CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
SPREADING FROM WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE WHERE A BROAD SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL. OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...WARMER CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAIN
DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
SEVERAL WAVES ACROSS THE REGION.

THE FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY. AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SHIFTS WEST...SNOW WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...GENERALLY AROUND ONE INCH.

THE NEXT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEMS
AS THIS WAVE WILL HAVE MORE OF A PACIFIC COMPONENT TO IT. WHILE
FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TOO STRONG WITH THIS WAVE...PERSISTENT
LIGHT SNOW WITH BROAD SCALE LIFT OVER A 36 HOUR PERIOD COULD
BRING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. MODELS ARE JUST
BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM...SO DETAILS WILL BE FURTHER REFINED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND AMOUNTS/PRECIP TYPE COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW CIGS
SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA. AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 102131
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
331 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS SNOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WESTERN AND INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM MID MORNING TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS APPROACH
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA 06Z- 12Z THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH LEADS INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE MAIN HEADLINE EARLY THIS MORNING IS SNOW. THE LATEST RADAR SHOWS
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED AREA OF SNOW WHICH IS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM MOHALL TO MINOT...MERCER TO WISHEK. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WAS BEING PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150KT
300MB JET STREAK NOW INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IN THIS AREA FROM 12Z TO 15Z...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
BY 18Z AS THE MAIN VERTICAL MOTION FIELD SHIFTS FARTHER AWAY.

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM
NEAR ESTEVAN INTO GLEN ULLIN AND SNAKING INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. PRIOR
TO THAT OCCURRING...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A NARROW SWATH OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING SOUTH CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY...NORTHERLY WINDS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL PULL THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE/STATIONARY FRONT BACK INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM WILLISTON TO WATFORD CITY AND
DICKINSON SHOW THERE COULD BE PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
FOG THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE GRIDDED
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
SEVERAL WAVES ACROSS THE REGION.

THE FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY. AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SHIFTS WEST...SNOW WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...GENERALLY AROUND ONE INCH.

THE NEXT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEMS
AS THIS WAVE WILL HAVE MORE OF A PACIFIC COMPONENT TO IT. WHILE
FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TOO STRONG WITH THIS WAVE...PERSISTENT
LIGHT SNOW WITH BROAD SCALE LIFT OVER A 36 HOUR PERIOD COULD
BRING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. MODELS ARE JUST
BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM...SO DETAILS WILL BE FURTHER REFINED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND AMOUNTS/PRECIP TYPE COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW AT KJMS BEGINS THE TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SNOW WANING BY 18Z. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AT KJMS HOWEVER CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR. THE TREND AT THE REMAINING
TERMINALS WILL BE A FOR GRADUAL DETERIORATION FROM VFR TO MVFR.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AT KBIS/KISN/KDIK TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 102131
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
331 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS SNOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WESTERN AND INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM MID MORNING TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS APPROACH
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA 06Z- 12Z THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH LEADS INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE MAIN HEADLINE EARLY THIS MORNING IS SNOW. THE LATEST RADAR SHOWS
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED AREA OF SNOW WHICH IS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM MOHALL TO MINOT...MERCER TO WISHEK. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WAS BEING PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150KT
300MB JET STREAK NOW INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IN THIS AREA FROM 12Z TO 15Z...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
BY 18Z AS THE MAIN VERTICAL MOTION FIELD SHIFTS FARTHER AWAY.

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM
NEAR ESTEVAN INTO GLEN ULLIN AND SNAKING INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. PRIOR
TO THAT OCCURRING...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A NARROW SWATH OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING SOUTH CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY...NORTHERLY WINDS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL PULL THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE/STATIONARY FRONT BACK INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM WILLISTON TO WATFORD CITY AND
DICKINSON SHOW THERE COULD BE PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
FOG THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE GRIDDED
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
SEVERAL WAVES ACROSS THE REGION.

THE FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY. AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SHIFTS WEST...SNOW WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...GENERALLY AROUND ONE INCH.

THE NEXT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEMS
AS THIS WAVE WILL HAVE MORE OF A PACIFIC COMPONENT TO IT. WHILE
FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TOO STRONG WITH THIS WAVE...PERSISTENT
LIGHT SNOW WITH BROAD SCALE LIFT OVER A 36 HOUR PERIOD COULD
BRING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. MODELS ARE JUST
BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM...SO DETAILS WILL BE FURTHER REFINED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND AMOUNTS/PRECIP TYPE COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW AT KJMS BEGINS THE TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SNOW WANING BY 18Z. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AT KJMS HOWEVER CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR. THE TREND AT THE REMAINING
TERMINALS WILL BE A FOR GRADUAL DETERIORATION FROM VFR TO MVFR.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AT KBIS/KISN/KDIK TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 102131
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
331 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS SNOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WESTERN AND INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM MID MORNING TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS APPROACH
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA 06Z- 12Z THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH LEADS INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE MAIN HEADLINE EARLY THIS MORNING IS SNOW. THE LATEST RADAR SHOWS
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED AREA OF SNOW WHICH IS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM MOHALL TO MINOT...MERCER TO WISHEK. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WAS BEING PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150KT
300MB JET STREAK NOW INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IN THIS AREA FROM 12Z TO 15Z...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
BY 18Z AS THE MAIN VERTICAL MOTION FIELD SHIFTS FARTHER AWAY.

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM
NEAR ESTEVAN INTO GLEN ULLIN AND SNAKING INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. PRIOR
TO THAT OCCURRING...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A NARROW SWATH OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING SOUTH CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY...NORTHERLY WINDS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL PULL THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE/STATIONARY FRONT BACK INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM WILLISTON TO WATFORD CITY AND
DICKINSON SHOW THERE COULD BE PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
FOG THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE GRIDDED
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
SEVERAL WAVES ACROSS THE REGION.

THE FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY. AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SHIFTS WEST...SNOW WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...GENERALLY AROUND ONE INCH.

THE NEXT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEMS
AS THIS WAVE WILL HAVE MORE OF A PACIFIC COMPONENT TO IT. WHILE
FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TOO STRONG WITH THIS WAVE...PERSISTENT
LIGHT SNOW WITH BROAD SCALE LIFT OVER A 36 HOUR PERIOD COULD
BRING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. MODELS ARE JUST
BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM...SO DETAILS WILL BE FURTHER REFINED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND AMOUNTS/PRECIP TYPE COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW AT KJMS BEGINS THE TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SNOW WANING BY 18Z. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AT KJMS HOWEVER CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR. THE TREND AT THE REMAINING
TERMINALS WILL BE A FOR GRADUAL DETERIORATION FROM VFR TO MVFR.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AT KBIS/KISN/KDIK TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 102118
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
318 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

CHALLENGE THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE CLOUDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING ONGOING. DID ADD SOME LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...NO ACCUMULATIONS.

CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WILL BE PLACEMENT OF THE
CLOUDS AS A DETERMINING FACTOR FOR HOW FAR TEMPS FALL OFF FOR LOWS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM MODEL RH
FIELDS AND AVIATION CIG GUIDANCE IS THAT A SIMILAR CLOUD TREND
WILL OCCUR AS LAST NIGHT. EVENING CLEARING LINE WILL MOVE IN FROM
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...REACHING A LANGDON TO CROOKSTON TO PARK RAPIDS
LINE BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE PUSHES THEM BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. NW MN
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS OR
COLDER...BDE AT MINUS 23 THIS MORNING...TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN
AREAS UNDER THE CLOUDS.

THURSDAY DAYTIME WILL SEE THE SAME...WITH MORE CLOUDS WEST AND
POSSIBLY SOME SUN EAST. DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF -SN IN THE FAR SW
IN THE AFTN AND EVENING...LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUM. NORTH WINDS
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BEGINS TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION...CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN
IMPRESSIVE 1040MB PLUS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. ARCTIC COLD TEMPS
PUSH SOUTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH STEADY TO FALLING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH 925MB TEMPS
IN THE 20C TO 28C BELOW ZERO AND PWATS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH INDICATING CLEAR SKIES AND THE SFC HIGH CENTER OVER THE
VALLEY BY SAT 12Z...EXPECTING LOWS IN THE 15 TO 25 BELOW...MAY
NEED TO GO COLDER. WARMUP SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...MODELS BRING QPF IN SATURDAY
AFTN...THINKING SE WINDS WILL LIKELY ENTRAIN DRY AIRMASS
UNDERNEATH PRECIP BAND. DELAYED POPS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY FOR THE
VALLEY.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THE PERIOD SHOULD START OUT WITH WARMING
TEMPS AND SOME SNOW IN WAA ZONE SAT NIGHT/SUN. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW NEARLY ANY DAY NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST IN ALL BUT THE FAR EAST...WITH GENERAL MVFR
CIGS AND AT TIMES VFR CIGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 10KT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 101841
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1241 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA. DID ADD A
FLURRY MENTION IN E ND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING ECHOS
ON RADAR ANS A FEW 5 TO 7 MILE VSBY REPORTS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
MADE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH THE RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A 150
KT JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SNOW HAS BEEN
FALLING SINCE BEFORE 06Z IN OUR WESTERN CWA...WITH AUTOMATED SITES
SHOWING AROUND 0.06 TO 0.08 INCHES OF LIQUID SO FAR. THE SNOW BAND
LINES UP WELL WITH THE UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE JET AS WELL AS
700MB FRONTOGENESIS SEEN ON SPC MESO PAGE. VIS HAS BEEN MOSTLY IN
THE 2 TO 5SM RANGE ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES HAVE BEEN DOWN TO 1SM AT
TIMES. THE MODELS HAVE FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 18Z
TODAY...SO THINK WE SHOULD HAVE PRETTY DECENT BAND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SOME OF THE RECENT RUNS HAVE BEEN
BACKING OFF ON QPF...BUT WILL KEEP THE 3 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST
FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS ARE AT 12Z. DID CUT THE AMOUNTS IN RED
RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
BAND.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHEST READINGS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND
COLDER TEMPS EVEN WITH MORE SUN IN THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL START
OUT WELL BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT
ON TEMPS TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL START MOVING INTO WESTERN ND...SO OUR WEST SHOULD BE
CLOUDY EVEN AS THE PRECIP STAYS OUT OF THE CWA. THE NORTHEAST WILL
AGAIN HAVE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SO GETTING
DOWN INTO THE 10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THE
CLOUDY WEST AND MORE SUNNY EAST SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS AGAIN SHOWING A DECENT GRADIENT OF SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES BY LATE
FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THINK IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. OF GREATER NOTE IS A SURGE OF COLDER AIR COMING DOWN
DURING THE PERIOD. THE MORE THAN 1040MB HIGH DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP HIGHS ON FRIDAY BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL DROP INTO THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...AND SOME SPOTS IN THE EAST COULD BE EVEN COLDER.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS RUN. NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW WAVES
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION. A WAVE PROGRESSES EAST ON SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...ANOTHER WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST IN ALL BUT THE FAR EAST...WITH GENERAL MVFR
CIGS AND AT TIMES VFR CIGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 10KT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...DK



000
FXUS63 KFGF 101841
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1241 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA. DID ADD A
FLURRY MENTION IN E ND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING ECHOS
ON RADAR ANS A FEW 5 TO 7 MILE VSBY REPORTS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
MADE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH THE RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A 150
KT JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SNOW HAS BEEN
FALLING SINCE BEFORE 06Z IN OUR WESTERN CWA...WITH AUTOMATED SITES
SHOWING AROUND 0.06 TO 0.08 INCHES OF LIQUID SO FAR. THE SNOW BAND
LINES UP WELL WITH THE UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE JET AS WELL AS
700MB FRONTOGENESIS SEEN ON SPC MESO PAGE. VIS HAS BEEN MOSTLY IN
THE 2 TO 5SM RANGE ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES HAVE BEEN DOWN TO 1SM AT
TIMES. THE MODELS HAVE FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 18Z
TODAY...SO THINK WE SHOULD HAVE PRETTY DECENT BAND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SOME OF THE RECENT RUNS HAVE BEEN
BACKING OFF ON QPF...BUT WILL KEEP THE 3 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST
FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS ARE AT 12Z. DID CUT THE AMOUNTS IN RED
RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
BAND.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHEST READINGS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND
COLDER TEMPS EVEN WITH MORE SUN IN THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL START
OUT WELL BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT
ON TEMPS TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL START MOVING INTO WESTERN ND...SO OUR WEST SHOULD BE
CLOUDY EVEN AS THE PRECIP STAYS OUT OF THE CWA. THE NORTHEAST WILL
AGAIN HAVE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SO GETTING
DOWN INTO THE 10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THE
CLOUDY WEST AND MORE SUNNY EAST SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS AGAIN SHOWING A DECENT GRADIENT OF SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES BY LATE
FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THINK IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. OF GREATER NOTE IS A SURGE OF COLDER AIR COMING DOWN
DURING THE PERIOD. THE MORE THAN 1040MB HIGH DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP HIGHS ON FRIDAY BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL DROP INTO THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...AND SOME SPOTS IN THE EAST COULD BE EVEN COLDER.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS RUN. NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW WAVES
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION. A WAVE PROGRESSES EAST ON SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...ANOTHER WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST IN ALL BUT THE FAR EAST...WITH GENERAL MVFR
CIGS AND AT TIMES VFR CIGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 10KT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 101841
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1241 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA. DID ADD A
FLURRY MENTION IN E ND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING ECHOS
ON RADAR ANS A FEW 5 TO 7 MILE VSBY REPORTS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
MADE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH THE RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A 150
KT JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SNOW HAS BEEN
FALLING SINCE BEFORE 06Z IN OUR WESTERN CWA...WITH AUTOMATED SITES
SHOWING AROUND 0.06 TO 0.08 INCHES OF LIQUID SO FAR. THE SNOW BAND
LINES UP WELL WITH THE UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE JET AS WELL AS
700MB FRONTOGENESIS SEEN ON SPC MESO PAGE. VIS HAS BEEN MOSTLY IN
THE 2 TO 5SM RANGE ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES HAVE BEEN DOWN TO 1SM AT
TIMES. THE MODELS HAVE FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 18Z
TODAY...SO THINK WE SHOULD HAVE PRETTY DECENT BAND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SOME OF THE RECENT RUNS HAVE BEEN
BACKING OFF ON QPF...BUT WILL KEEP THE 3 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST
FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS ARE AT 12Z. DID CUT THE AMOUNTS IN RED
RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
BAND.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHEST READINGS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND
COLDER TEMPS EVEN WITH MORE SUN IN THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL START
OUT WELL BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT
ON TEMPS TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL START MOVING INTO WESTERN ND...SO OUR WEST SHOULD BE
CLOUDY EVEN AS THE PRECIP STAYS OUT OF THE CWA. THE NORTHEAST WILL
AGAIN HAVE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SO GETTING
DOWN INTO THE 10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THE
CLOUDY WEST AND MORE SUNNY EAST SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS AGAIN SHOWING A DECENT GRADIENT OF SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES BY LATE
FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THINK IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. OF GREATER NOTE IS A SURGE OF COLDER AIR COMING DOWN
DURING THE PERIOD. THE MORE THAN 1040MB HIGH DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP HIGHS ON FRIDAY BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL DROP INTO THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...AND SOME SPOTS IN THE EAST COULD BE EVEN COLDER.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS RUN. NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW WAVES
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION. A WAVE PROGRESSES EAST ON SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...ANOTHER WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST IN ALL BUT THE FAR EAST...WITH GENERAL MVFR
CIGS AND AT TIMES VFR CIGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 10KT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KBIS 101837
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MAIN CHANGE FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER A
BIT OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE ADVANCING LINE OF LOW CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. PRECIP WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 45 KNOTS AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
1030 OR 11 AM. INCREASED TEMPS A BIT IN THE FAR WEST. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
ADJUST POPS TO RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC...BLENDED THEREAFTER
TO THE 10 AND 11 UTC RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD
DEPICTION OF THE ONGOING SNOWBAND ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS SNOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WESTERN AND INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM MID MORNING TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS APPROACH
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA 06Z- 12Z THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH LEADS INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE MAIN HEADLINE EARLY THIS MORNING IS SNOW. THE LATEST RADAR SHOWS
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED AREA OF SNOW WHICH IS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM MOHALL TO MINOT...MERCER TO WISHEK. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WAS BEING PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150KT
300MB JET STREAK NOW INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IN THIS AREA FROM 12Z TO 15Z...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
BY 18Z AS THE MAIN VERTICAL MOTION FIELD SHIFTS FARTHER AWAY.

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM
NEAR ESTEVAN INTO GLEN ULLIN AND SNAKING INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. PRIOR
TO THAT OCCURRING...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A NARROW SWATH OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING SOUTH CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY...NORTHERLY WINDS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL PULL THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE/STATIONARY FRONT BACK INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM WILLISTON TO WATFORD CITY AND
DICKINSON SHOW THERE COULD BE PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
FOG THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE GRIDDED
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY...WITH A COOL DOWN INTO THE
WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK...RAPIDLY
PROPAGATING IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR. SNOW MAY CHANGE OVER TO
ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THEREAFTER...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO
RESIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TWO ARCTIC HIGHS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME THE CORE
OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
THE GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY
ACCUMULATING SNOW...IS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE COMING
ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT PROPAGATES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW CIGS
SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA. AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JJS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 101837
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MAIN CHANGE FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER A
BIT OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE ADVANCING LINE OF LOW CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. PRECIP WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 45 KNOTS AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
1030 OR 11 AM. INCREASED TEMPS A BIT IN THE FAR WEST. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
ADJUST POPS TO RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC...BLENDED THEREAFTER
TO THE 10 AND 11 UTC RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD
DEPICTION OF THE ONGOING SNOWBAND ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS SNOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WESTERN AND INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM MID MORNING TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS APPROACH
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA 06Z- 12Z THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH LEADS INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE MAIN HEADLINE EARLY THIS MORNING IS SNOW. THE LATEST RADAR SHOWS
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED AREA OF SNOW WHICH IS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM MOHALL TO MINOT...MERCER TO WISHEK. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WAS BEING PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150KT
300MB JET STREAK NOW INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IN THIS AREA FROM 12Z TO 15Z...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
BY 18Z AS THE MAIN VERTICAL MOTION FIELD SHIFTS FARTHER AWAY.

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM
NEAR ESTEVAN INTO GLEN ULLIN AND SNAKING INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. PRIOR
TO THAT OCCURRING...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A NARROW SWATH OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING SOUTH CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY...NORTHERLY WINDS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL PULL THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE/STATIONARY FRONT BACK INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM WILLISTON TO WATFORD CITY AND
DICKINSON SHOW THERE COULD BE PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
FOG THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE GRIDDED
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY...WITH A COOL DOWN INTO THE
WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK...RAPIDLY
PROPAGATING IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR. SNOW MAY CHANGE OVER TO
ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THEREAFTER...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO
RESIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TWO ARCTIC HIGHS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME THE CORE
OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
THE GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY
ACCUMULATING SNOW...IS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE COMING
ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT PROPAGATES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW CIGS
SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA. AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JJS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 101837
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MAIN CHANGE FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER A
BIT OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE ADVANCING LINE OF LOW CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. PRECIP WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 45 KNOTS AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
1030 OR 11 AM. INCREASED TEMPS A BIT IN THE FAR WEST. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
ADJUST POPS TO RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC...BLENDED THEREAFTER
TO THE 10 AND 11 UTC RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD
DEPICTION OF THE ONGOING SNOWBAND ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS SNOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WESTERN AND INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM MID MORNING TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS APPROACH
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA 06Z- 12Z THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH LEADS INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE MAIN HEADLINE EARLY THIS MORNING IS SNOW. THE LATEST RADAR SHOWS
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED AREA OF SNOW WHICH IS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM MOHALL TO MINOT...MERCER TO WISHEK. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WAS BEING PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150KT
300MB JET STREAK NOW INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IN THIS AREA FROM 12Z TO 15Z...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
BY 18Z AS THE MAIN VERTICAL MOTION FIELD SHIFTS FARTHER AWAY.

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM
NEAR ESTEVAN INTO GLEN ULLIN AND SNAKING INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. PRIOR
TO THAT OCCURRING...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A NARROW SWATH OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING SOUTH CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY...NORTHERLY WINDS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL PULL THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE/STATIONARY FRONT BACK INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM WILLISTON TO WATFORD CITY AND
DICKINSON SHOW THERE COULD BE PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
FOG THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE GRIDDED
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY...WITH A COOL DOWN INTO THE
WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK...RAPIDLY
PROPAGATING IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR. SNOW MAY CHANGE OVER TO
ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THEREAFTER...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO
RESIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TWO ARCTIC HIGHS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME THE CORE
OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
THE GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY
ACCUMULATING SNOW...IS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE COMING
ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT PROPAGATES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW CIGS
SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA. AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JJS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 101556
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
956 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. PRECIP WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 45 KNOTS AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
1030 OR 11 AM. INCREASED TEMPS A BIT IN THE FAR WEST. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
ADJUST POPS TO RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC...BLENDED THEREAFTER
TO THE 10 AND 11 UTC RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD
DEPICTION OF THE ONGOING SNOWBAND ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS SNOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WESTERN AND INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM MID MORNING TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS APPROACH
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA 06Z- 12Z THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH LEADS INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE MAIN HEADLINE EARLY THIS MORNING IS SNOW. THE LATEST RADAR SHOWS
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED AREA OF SNOW WHICH IS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM MOHALL TO MINOT...MERCER TO WISHEK. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WAS BEING PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150KT
300MB JET STREAK NOW INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IN THIS AREA FROM 12Z TO 15Z...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
BY 18Z AS THE MAIN VERTICAL MOTION FIELD SHIFTS FARTHER AWAY.

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM
NEAR ESTEVAN INTO GLEN ULLIN AND SNAKING INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. PRIOR
TO THAT OCCURRING...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A NARROW SWATH OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING SOUTH CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY...NORTHERLY WINDS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL PULL THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE/STATIONARY FRONT BACK INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM WILLISTON TO WATFORD CITY AND
DICKINSON SHOW THERE COULD BE PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
FOG THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE GRIDDED
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY...WITH A COOL DOWN INTO THE
WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK...RAPIDLY
PROPAGATING IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR. SNOW MAY CHANGE OVER TO
ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THEREAFTER...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO
RESIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TWO ARCTIC HIGHS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME THE CORE
OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
THE GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY
ACCUMULATING SNOW...IS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE COMING
ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT PROPAGATES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

-SN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KJMS BEGINS THE TAF PERIOD. THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL WANE AND END BETWEEN 18Z-19Z AT KJMS WITH VFR VSBYS
RETURNING...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED. ELSEWHERE MVFR
CIGS WILL FILL IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AERODROMES TODAY.
KMOT ALREADY IS IN MVFR STATUS...KISN WILL FOLLOW AT 16Z...KBIS AT
19Z...AND KDIK AT 21Z. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 101556
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
956 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. PRECIP WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 45 KNOTS AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
1030 OR 11 AM. INCREASED TEMPS A BIT IN THE FAR WEST. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
ADJUST POPS TO RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC...BLENDED THEREAFTER
TO THE 10 AND 11 UTC RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD
DEPICTION OF THE ONGOING SNOWBAND ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS SNOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WESTERN AND INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM MID MORNING TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS APPROACH
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA 06Z- 12Z THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH LEADS INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE MAIN HEADLINE EARLY THIS MORNING IS SNOW. THE LATEST RADAR SHOWS
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED AREA OF SNOW WHICH IS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM MOHALL TO MINOT...MERCER TO WISHEK. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WAS BEING PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150KT
300MB JET STREAK NOW INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IN THIS AREA FROM 12Z TO 15Z...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
BY 18Z AS THE MAIN VERTICAL MOTION FIELD SHIFTS FARTHER AWAY.

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM
NEAR ESTEVAN INTO GLEN ULLIN AND SNAKING INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. PRIOR
TO THAT OCCURRING...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A NARROW SWATH OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING SOUTH CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY...NORTHERLY WINDS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL PULL THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE/STATIONARY FRONT BACK INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM WILLISTON TO WATFORD CITY AND
DICKINSON SHOW THERE COULD BE PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
FOG THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE GRIDDED
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY...WITH A COOL DOWN INTO THE
WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK...RAPIDLY
PROPAGATING IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR. SNOW MAY CHANGE OVER TO
ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THEREAFTER...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO
RESIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TWO ARCTIC HIGHS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME THE CORE
OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
THE GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY
ACCUMULATING SNOW...IS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE COMING
ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT PROPAGATES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

-SN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KJMS BEGINS THE TAF PERIOD. THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL WANE AND END BETWEEN 18Z-19Z AT KJMS WITH VFR VSBYS
RETURNING...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED. ELSEWHERE MVFR
CIGS WILL FILL IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AERODROMES TODAY.
KMOT ALREADY IS IN MVFR STATUS...KISN WILL FOLLOW AT 16Z...KBIS AT
19Z...AND KDIK AT 21Z. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD



000
FXUS63 KBIS 101556
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
956 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. PRECIP WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 45 KNOTS AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
1030 OR 11 AM. INCREASED TEMPS A BIT IN THE FAR WEST. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
ADJUST POPS TO RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC...BLENDED THEREAFTER
TO THE 10 AND 11 UTC RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD
DEPICTION OF THE ONGOING SNOWBAND ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS SNOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WESTERN AND INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM MID MORNING TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS APPROACH
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA 06Z- 12Z THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH LEADS INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE MAIN HEADLINE EARLY THIS MORNING IS SNOW. THE LATEST RADAR SHOWS
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED AREA OF SNOW WHICH IS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM MOHALL TO MINOT...MERCER TO WISHEK. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WAS BEING PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150KT
300MB JET STREAK NOW INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IN THIS AREA FROM 12Z TO 15Z...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
BY 18Z AS THE MAIN VERTICAL MOTION FIELD SHIFTS FARTHER AWAY.

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM
NEAR ESTEVAN INTO GLEN ULLIN AND SNAKING INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. PRIOR
TO THAT OCCURRING...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A NARROW SWATH OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING SOUTH CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY...NORTHERLY WINDS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL PULL THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE/STATIONARY FRONT BACK INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM WILLISTON TO WATFORD CITY AND
DICKINSON SHOW THERE COULD BE PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
FOG THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE GRIDDED
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY...WITH A COOL DOWN INTO THE
WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK...RAPIDLY
PROPAGATING IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR. SNOW MAY CHANGE OVER TO
ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THEREAFTER...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO
RESIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TWO ARCTIC HIGHS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME THE CORE
OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
THE GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY
ACCUMULATING SNOW...IS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE COMING
ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT PROPAGATES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

-SN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KJMS BEGINS THE TAF PERIOD. THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL WANE AND END BETWEEN 18Z-19Z AT KJMS WITH VFR VSBYS
RETURNING...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED. ELSEWHERE MVFR
CIGS WILL FILL IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AERODROMES TODAY.
KMOT ALREADY IS IN MVFR STATUS...KISN WILL FOLLOW AT 16Z...KBIS AT
19Z...AND KDIK AT 21Z. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD



000
FXUS63 KBIS 101556
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
956 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. PRECIP WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 45 KNOTS AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
1030 OR 11 AM. INCREASED TEMPS A BIT IN THE FAR WEST. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
ADJUST POPS TO RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC...BLENDED THEREAFTER
TO THE 10 AND 11 UTC RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD
DEPICTION OF THE ONGOING SNOWBAND ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS SNOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WESTERN AND INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM MID MORNING TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS APPROACH
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA 06Z- 12Z THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH LEADS INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE MAIN HEADLINE EARLY THIS MORNING IS SNOW. THE LATEST RADAR SHOWS
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED AREA OF SNOW WHICH IS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM MOHALL TO MINOT...MERCER TO WISHEK. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WAS BEING PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150KT
300MB JET STREAK NOW INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IN THIS AREA FROM 12Z TO 15Z...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
BY 18Z AS THE MAIN VERTICAL MOTION FIELD SHIFTS FARTHER AWAY.

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM
NEAR ESTEVAN INTO GLEN ULLIN AND SNAKING INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. PRIOR
TO THAT OCCURRING...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A NARROW SWATH OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING SOUTH CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY...NORTHERLY WINDS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL PULL THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE/STATIONARY FRONT BACK INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM WILLISTON TO WATFORD CITY AND
DICKINSON SHOW THERE COULD BE PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
FOG THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE GRIDDED
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY...WITH A COOL DOWN INTO THE
WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK...RAPIDLY
PROPAGATING IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR. SNOW MAY CHANGE OVER TO
ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THEREAFTER...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO
RESIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TWO ARCTIC HIGHS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME THE CORE
OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
THE GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY
ACCUMULATING SNOW...IS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE COMING
ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT PROPAGATES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

-SN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KJMS BEGINS THE TAF PERIOD. THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL WANE AND END BETWEEN 18Z-19Z AT KJMS WITH VFR VSBYS
RETURNING...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED. ELSEWHERE MVFR
CIGS WILL FILL IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AERODROMES TODAY.
KMOT ALREADY IS IN MVFR STATUS...KISN WILL FOLLOW AT 16Z...KBIS AT
19Z...AND KDIK AT 21Z. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD



000
FXUS63 KBIS 101556
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
956 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. PRECIP WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 45 KNOTS AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
1030 OR 11 AM. INCREASED TEMPS A BIT IN THE FAR WEST. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
ADJUST POPS TO RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC...BLENDED THEREAFTER
TO THE 10 AND 11 UTC RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD
DEPICTION OF THE ONGOING SNOWBAND ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS SNOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WESTERN AND INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM MID MORNING TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS APPROACH
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA 06Z- 12Z THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH LEADS INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE MAIN HEADLINE EARLY THIS MORNING IS SNOW. THE LATEST RADAR SHOWS
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED AREA OF SNOW WHICH IS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM MOHALL TO MINOT...MERCER TO WISHEK. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WAS BEING PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150KT
300MB JET STREAK NOW INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IN THIS AREA FROM 12Z TO 15Z...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
BY 18Z AS THE MAIN VERTICAL MOTION FIELD SHIFTS FARTHER AWAY.

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM
NEAR ESTEVAN INTO GLEN ULLIN AND SNAKING INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. PRIOR
TO THAT OCCURRING...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A NARROW SWATH OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING SOUTH CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY...NORTHERLY WINDS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL PULL THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE/STATIONARY FRONT BACK INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM WILLISTON TO WATFORD CITY AND
DICKINSON SHOW THERE COULD BE PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
FOG THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE GRIDDED
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY...WITH A COOL DOWN INTO THE
WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK...RAPIDLY
PROPAGATING IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR. SNOW MAY CHANGE OVER TO
ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THEREAFTER...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO
RESIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TWO ARCTIC HIGHS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME THE CORE
OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
THE GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY
ACCUMULATING SNOW...IS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE COMING
ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT PROPAGATES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

-SN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KJMS BEGINS THE TAF PERIOD. THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL WANE AND END BETWEEN 18Z-19Z AT KJMS WITH VFR VSBYS
RETURNING...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED. ELSEWHERE MVFR
CIGS WILL FILL IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AERODROMES TODAY.
KMOT ALREADY IS IN MVFR STATUS...KISN WILL FOLLOW AT 16Z...KBIS AT
19Z...AND KDIK AT 21Z. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD



000
FXUS63 KFGF 101534
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
934 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

SNOW INTENSITIES STARTING TO DIMINISH WITH VSBYS IMPROVING ACROSS
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND CENTRAL VALLEY AS STRONGEST RADAR
RETURNS ARE NOW IN SOUTHEASTERN ND. MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR
THE UPDATE WITH A TWEAK TO THE POPS COVERAGE TO MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS. ENDING TIME FOR THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS IS ON TRACK WITH -SN LINGERING ACROSS E ND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH THE RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A 150
KT JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SNOW HAS BEEN
FALLING SINCE BEFORE 06Z IN OUR WESTERN CWA...WITH AUTOMATED SITES
SHOWING AROUND 0.06 TO 0.08 INCHES OF LIQUID SO FAR. THE SNOW BAND
LINES UP WELL WITH THE UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE JET AS WELL AS
700MB FRONTOGENESIS SEEN ON SPC MESO PAGE. VIS HAS BEEN MOSTLY IN
THE 2 TO 5SM RANGE ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES HAVE BEEN DOWN TO 1SM AT
TIMES. THE MODELS HAVE FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 18Z
TODAY...SO THINK WE SHOULD HAVE PRETTY DECENT BAND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SOME OF THE RECENT RUNS HAVE BEEN
BACKING OFF ON QPF...BUT WILL KEEP THE 3 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST
FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS ARE AT 12Z. DID CUT THE AMOUNTS IN RED
RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
BAND.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHEST READINGS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND
COLDER TEMPS EVEN WITH MORE SUN IN THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL START
OUT WELL BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT
ON TEMPS TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL START MOVING INTO WESTERN ND...SO OUR WEST SHOULD BE
CLOUDY EVEN AS THE PRECIP STAYS OUT OF THE CWA. THE NORTHEAST WILL
AGAIN HAVE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SO GETTING
DOWN INTO THE 10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THE
CLOUDY WEST AND MORE SUNNY EAST SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS AGAIN SHOWING A DECENT GRADIENT OF SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES BY LATE
FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THINK IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. OF GREATER NOTE IS A SURGE OF COLDER AIR COMING DOWN
DURING THE PERIOD. THE MORE THAN 1040MB HIGH DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP HIGHS ON FRIDAY BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL DROP INTO THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...AND SOME SPOTS IN THE EAST COULD BE EVEN COLDER.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS RUN. NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW WAVES
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION. A WAVE PROGRESSES EAST ON SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...ANOTHER WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KDVL WHICH IS
STILL 1SM WITH CIGS IN THE 9000-1300 FT RANGE. THINK THAT
CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AT KDVL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS THE SNOW BAND MOVES OFF. KGFK AND KFAR HAVE BEEN REPORTING SOME
FLURRIES AND HAVE VIS IN THE 5-6SM RANGE ALTHOUGH CIGS ARE STILL
IN THE VFR RANGE. EXPECT THE LOWERED VIS TO NOT LAST VERY LONG AS
THE SNOW BAND WILL BE SOUTH OF KGFK BY MID MORNING AND KFAR BY
18Z. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY HANG AROUND KDVL BUT OTHER SITES SHOULD BE
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 101257
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
657 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

THE MAIN ISSUE IS SNOW AMOUNTS. REPORTS HAVE BEEN SPARSE...BUT GOT
ONE OF 3 INCHES IN DEVILS LAKE. THIS FITS WITH THE LOWER END OF
THE SNOW TOTAL RANGE ON RADAR ESTIMATE. ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR CURRENT
SNOW AMOUNTS. BAND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING ON THE NORTH END
AND THINK SNOW WILL BE ENDING SOON THERE WHILE THE
SHEYENNE/FAR SOUTHERN RED BASINS WILL SEE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO. ALL
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE PRECIP PRETTY MUCH ENDING BY 18Z. WILL
KEEP THE SPS GOING AND UPDATE TOP NEWS FOR UPDATED WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH THE RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A 150
KT JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SNOW HAS BEEN
FALLING SINCE BEFORE 06Z IN OUR WESTERN CWA...WITH AUTOMATED SITES
SHOWING AROUND 0.06 TO 0.08 INCHES OF LIQUID SO FAR. THE SNOW BAND
LINES UP WELL WITH THE UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE JET AS WELL AS
700MB FRONTOGENESIS SEEN ON SPC MESO PAGE. VIS HAS BEEN MOSTLY IN
THE 2 TO 5SM RANGE ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES HAVE BEEN DOWN TO 1SM AT
TIMES. THE MODELS HAVE FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 18Z
TODAY...SO THINK WE SHOULD HAVE PRETTY DECENT BAND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SOME OF THE RECENT RUNS HAVE BEEN
BACKING OFF ON QPF...BUT WILL KEEP THE 3 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST
FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS ARE AT 12Z. DID CUT THE AMOUNTS IN RED
RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
BAND.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHEST READINGS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND
COLDER TEMPS EVEN WITH MORE SUN IN THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL START
OUT WELL BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT
ON TEMPS TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL START MOVING INTO WESTERN ND...SO OUR WEST SHOULD BE
CLOUDY EVEN AS THE PRECIP STAYS OUT OF THE CWA. THE NORTHEAST WILL
AGAIN HAVE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SO GETTING
DOWN INTO THE 10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THE
CLOUDY WEST AND MORE SUNNY EAST SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS AGAIN SHOWING A DECENT GRADIENT OF SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES BY LATE
FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THINK IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. OF GREATER NOTE IS A SURGE OF COLDER AIR COMING DOWN
DURING THE PERIOD. THE MORE THAN 1040MB HIGH DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP HIGHS ON FRIDAY BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL DROP INTO THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...AND SOME SPOTS IN THE EAST COULD BE EVEN COLDER.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS RUN. NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW WAVES
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION. A WAVE PROGRESSES EAST ON SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...ANOTHER WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KDVL WHICH IS
STILL 1SM WITH CIGS IN THE 9000-1300 FT RANGE. THINK THAT
CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AT KDVL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS THE SNOW BAND MOVES OFF. KGFK AND KFAR HAVE BEEN REPORTING SOME
FLURRIES AND HAVE VIS IN THE 5-6SM RANGE ALTHOUGH CIGS ARE STILL
IN THE VFR RANGE. EXPECT THE LOWERED VIS TO NOT LAST VERY LONG AS
THE SNOW BAND WILL BE SOUTH OF KGFK BY MID MORNING AND KFAR BY
18Z. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY HANG AROUND KDVL BUT OTHER SITES SHOULD BE
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR



000
FXUS63 KFGF 101257
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
657 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

THE MAIN ISSUE IS SNOW AMOUNTS. REPORTS HAVE BEEN SPARSE...BUT GOT
ONE OF 3 INCHES IN DEVILS LAKE. THIS FITS WITH THE LOWER END OF
THE SNOW TOTAL RANGE ON RADAR ESTIMATE. ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR CURRENT
SNOW AMOUNTS. BAND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING ON THE NORTH END
AND THINK SNOW WILL BE ENDING SOON THERE WHILE THE
SHEYENNE/FAR SOUTHERN RED BASINS WILL SEE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO. ALL
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE PRECIP PRETTY MUCH ENDING BY 18Z. WILL
KEEP THE SPS GOING AND UPDATE TOP NEWS FOR UPDATED WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH THE RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A 150
KT JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SNOW HAS BEEN
FALLING SINCE BEFORE 06Z IN OUR WESTERN CWA...WITH AUTOMATED SITES
SHOWING AROUND 0.06 TO 0.08 INCHES OF LIQUID SO FAR. THE SNOW BAND
LINES UP WELL WITH THE UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE JET AS WELL AS
700MB FRONTOGENESIS SEEN ON SPC MESO PAGE. VIS HAS BEEN MOSTLY IN
THE 2 TO 5SM RANGE ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES HAVE BEEN DOWN TO 1SM AT
TIMES. THE MODELS HAVE FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 18Z
TODAY...SO THINK WE SHOULD HAVE PRETTY DECENT BAND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SOME OF THE RECENT RUNS HAVE BEEN
BACKING OFF ON QPF...BUT WILL KEEP THE 3 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST
FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS ARE AT 12Z. DID CUT THE AMOUNTS IN RED
RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
BAND.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHEST READINGS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND
COLDER TEMPS EVEN WITH MORE SUN IN THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL START
OUT WELL BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT
ON TEMPS TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL START MOVING INTO WESTERN ND...SO OUR WEST SHOULD BE
CLOUDY EVEN AS THE PRECIP STAYS OUT OF THE CWA. THE NORTHEAST WILL
AGAIN HAVE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SO GETTING
DOWN INTO THE 10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THE
CLOUDY WEST AND MORE SUNNY EAST SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS AGAIN SHOWING A DECENT GRADIENT OF SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES BY LATE
FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THINK IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. OF GREATER NOTE IS A SURGE OF COLDER AIR COMING DOWN
DURING THE PERIOD. THE MORE THAN 1040MB HIGH DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP HIGHS ON FRIDAY BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL DROP INTO THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...AND SOME SPOTS IN THE EAST COULD BE EVEN COLDER.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS RUN. NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW WAVES
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION. A WAVE PROGRESSES EAST ON SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...ANOTHER WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KDVL WHICH IS
STILL 1SM WITH CIGS IN THE 9000-1300 FT RANGE. THINK THAT
CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AT KDVL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS THE SNOW BAND MOVES OFF. KGFK AND KFAR HAVE BEEN REPORTING SOME
FLURRIES AND HAVE VIS IN THE 5-6SM RANGE ALTHOUGH CIGS ARE STILL
IN THE VFR RANGE. EXPECT THE LOWERED VIS TO NOT LAST VERY LONG AS
THE SNOW BAND WILL BE SOUTH OF KGFK BY MID MORNING AND KFAR BY
18Z. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY HANG AROUND KDVL BUT OTHER SITES SHOULD BE
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 101257
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
657 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

THE MAIN ISSUE IS SNOW AMOUNTS. REPORTS HAVE BEEN SPARSE...BUT GOT
ONE OF 3 INCHES IN DEVILS LAKE. THIS FITS WITH THE LOWER END OF
THE SNOW TOTAL RANGE ON RADAR ESTIMATE. ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR CURRENT
SNOW AMOUNTS. BAND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING ON THE NORTH END
AND THINK SNOW WILL BE ENDING SOON THERE WHILE THE
SHEYENNE/FAR SOUTHERN RED BASINS WILL SEE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO. ALL
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE PRECIP PRETTY MUCH ENDING BY 18Z. WILL
KEEP THE SPS GOING AND UPDATE TOP NEWS FOR UPDATED WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH THE RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A 150
KT JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SNOW HAS BEEN
FALLING SINCE BEFORE 06Z IN OUR WESTERN CWA...WITH AUTOMATED SITES
SHOWING AROUND 0.06 TO 0.08 INCHES OF LIQUID SO FAR. THE SNOW BAND
LINES UP WELL WITH THE UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE JET AS WELL AS
700MB FRONTOGENESIS SEEN ON SPC MESO PAGE. VIS HAS BEEN MOSTLY IN
THE 2 TO 5SM RANGE ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES HAVE BEEN DOWN TO 1SM AT
TIMES. THE MODELS HAVE FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 18Z
TODAY...SO THINK WE SHOULD HAVE PRETTY DECENT BAND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SOME OF THE RECENT RUNS HAVE BEEN
BACKING OFF ON QPF...BUT WILL KEEP THE 3 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST
FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS ARE AT 12Z. DID CUT THE AMOUNTS IN RED
RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
BAND.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHEST READINGS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND
COLDER TEMPS EVEN WITH MORE SUN IN THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL START
OUT WELL BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT
ON TEMPS TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL START MOVING INTO WESTERN ND...SO OUR WEST SHOULD BE
CLOUDY EVEN AS THE PRECIP STAYS OUT OF THE CWA. THE NORTHEAST WILL
AGAIN HAVE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SO GETTING
DOWN INTO THE 10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THE
CLOUDY WEST AND MORE SUNNY EAST SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS AGAIN SHOWING A DECENT GRADIENT OF SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES BY LATE
FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THINK IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. OF GREATER NOTE IS A SURGE OF COLDER AIR COMING DOWN
DURING THE PERIOD. THE MORE THAN 1040MB HIGH DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP HIGHS ON FRIDAY BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL DROP INTO THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...AND SOME SPOTS IN THE EAST COULD BE EVEN COLDER.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS RUN. NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW WAVES
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION. A WAVE PROGRESSES EAST ON SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...ANOTHER WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KDVL WHICH IS
STILL 1SM WITH CIGS IN THE 9000-1300 FT RANGE. THINK THAT
CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AT KDVL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS THE SNOW BAND MOVES OFF. KGFK AND KFAR HAVE BEEN REPORTING SOME
FLURRIES AND HAVE VIS IN THE 5-6SM RANGE ALTHOUGH CIGS ARE STILL
IN THE VFR RANGE. EXPECT THE LOWERED VIS TO NOT LAST VERY LONG AS
THE SNOW BAND WILL BE SOUTH OF KGFK BY MID MORNING AND KFAR BY
18Z. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY HANG AROUND KDVL BUT OTHER SITES SHOULD BE
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KBIS 101237
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
ADJUST POPS TO RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC...BLENDED THEREAFTER
TO THE 10 AND 11 UTC RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD
DEPICTION OF THE ONGOING SNOWBAND ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS SNOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WESTERN AND INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM MID MORNING TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS APPROACH
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA 06Z- 12Z THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH LEADS INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE MAIN HEADLINE EARLY THIS MORNING IS SNOW. THE LATEST RADAR SHOWS
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED AREA OF SNOW WHICH IS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM MOHALL TO MINOT...MERCER TO WISHEK. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WAS BEING PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150KT
300MB JET STREAK NOW INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IN THIS AREA FROM 12Z TO 15Z...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
BY 18Z AS THE MAIN VERTICAL MOTION FIELD SHIFTS FARTHER AWAY.

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM
NEAR ESTEVAN INTO GLEN ULLIN AND SNAKING INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. PRIOR
TO THAT OCCURRING...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A NARROW SWATH OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING SOUTH CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY...NORTHERLY WINDS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL PULL THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE/STATIONARY FRONT BACK INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM WILLISTON TO WATFORD CITY AND
DICKINSON SHOW THERE COULD BE PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
FOG THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE GRIDDED
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY...WITH A COOL DOWN INTO THE
WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK...RAPIDLY
PROPAGATING IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR. SNOW MAY CHANGE OVER TO
ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THEREAFTER...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO
RESIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TWO ARCTIC HIGHS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME THE CORE
OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
THE GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY
ACCUMULATING SNOW...IS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE COMING
ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT PROPAGATES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

-SN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KJMS BEGINS THE TAF PERIOD. THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL WANE AND END BETWEEN 18Z-19Z AT KJMS WITH VFR VSBYS
RETURNING...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED. ELSEWHERE MVFR
CIGS WILL FILL IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AERODROMES TODAY.
KMOT ALREADY IS IN MVFR STATUS...KISN WILL FOLLOW AT 16Z...KBIS AT
19Z...AND KDIK AT 21Z. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KFGF 100911
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
311 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH THE RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A 150
KT JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SNOW HAS BEEN
FALLING SINCE BEFORE 06Z IN OUR WESTERN CWA...WITH AUTOMATED SITES
SHOWING AROUND 0.06 TO 0.08 INCHES OF LIQUID SO FAR. THE SNOW BAND
LINES UP WELL WITH THE UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE JET AS WELL AS
700MB FRONTOGENESIS SEEN ON SPC MESO PAGE. VIS HAS BEEN MOSTLY IN
THE 2 TO 5SM RANGE ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES HAVE BEEN DOWN TO 1SM AT
TIMES. THE MODELS HAVE FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 18Z
TODAY...SO THINK WE SHOULD HAVE PRETTY DECENT BAND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SOME OF THE RECENT RUNS HAVE BEEN
BACKING OFF ON QPF...BUT WILL KEEP THE 3 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST
FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS ARE AT 12Z. DID CUT THE AMOUNTS IN RED
RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
BAND.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHEST READINGS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND
COLDER TEMPS EVEN WITH MORE SUN IN THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL START
OUT WELL BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT
ON TEMPS TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL START MOVING INTO WESTERN ND...SO OUR WEST SHOULD BE
CLOUDY EVEN AS THE PRECIP STAYS OUT OF THE CWA. THE NORTHEAST WILL
AGAIN HAVE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SO GETTING
DOWN INTO THE 10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THE
CLOUDY WEST AND MORE SUNNY EAST SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS AGAIN SHOWING A DECENT GRADIENT OF SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES BY LATE
FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THINK IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. OF GREATER NOTE IS A SURGE OF COLDER AIR COMING DOWN
DURING THE PERIOD. THE MORE THAN 1040MB HIGH DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP HIGHS ON FRIDAY BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL DROP INTO THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...AND SOME SPOTS IN THE EAST COULD BE EVEN COLDER.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS RUN. NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW WAVES
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION. A WAVE PROGRESSES EAST ON SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...ANOTHER WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK WEAK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST MODELS
KEEP ANY LIGHT SNOW OUT OF KFAR/KGFK...SO HAVE REMOVED THAT FROM
THE LATEST TAFS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW REMAIN AT KDVL...WHICH
COULD DROP THE VSBY THERE BELOW A MILE AT TIMES. WITH LITTLE OR NO
SNOW AT KGFK/KFAR...ALSO INCREASED THE CEILINGS. WORST CEILINGS
WILL ALSO BE WITH THE SNOW AT KDVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KBIS 100908
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
308 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS SNOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WESTERN AND INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM MID MORNING TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS APPROACH
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA 06Z- 12Z THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH LEADS INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE MAIN HEADLINE EARLY THIS MORNING IS SNOW. THE LATEST RADAR SHOWS
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED AREA OF SNOW WHICH IS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM MOHALL TO MINOT...MERCER TO WISHEK. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WAS BEING PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150KT
300MB JET STREAK NOW INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IN THIS AREA FROM 12Z TO 15Z...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
BY 18Z AS THE MAIN VERTICAL MOTION FIELD SHIFTS FARTHER AWAY.

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM
NEAR ESTEVAN INTO GLEN ULLIN AND SNAKING INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. PRIOR
TO THAT OCCURRING...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A NARROW SWATH OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING SOUTH CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY...NORTHERLY WINDS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL PULL THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE/STATIONARY FRONT BACK INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM WILLISTON TO WATFORD CITY AND
DICKINSON SHOW THERE COULD BE PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
FOG THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE GRIDDED
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY...WITH A COOL DOWN INTO THE
WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK...RAPIDLY
PROPAGATING IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR. SNOW MAY CHANGE OVER TO
ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THEREAFTER...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO
RESIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TWO ARCTIC HIGHS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME THE CORE
OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
THE GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY
ACCUMULATING SNOW...IS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE COMING
ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT PROPAGATES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW AT KJMS BEGINS THE TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SNOW WANING BY 18Z. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AT KJMS HOWEVER CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR. THE TREND AT THE REMAINING
TERMINALS WILL BE A FOR GRADUAL DETERIORATION FROM VFR TO MVFR.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AT KBIS/KISN/KDIK TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 100545
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1145 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS A
STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR ESTEVEN SOUTHEAST TO GLEN ULLIN THEN
SNAKING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL RADAR AND GROUND
TRUTH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW STRETCHING
FROM ESTEVEN TO MOHALL...MINOT TO RUGBY AND ROLLA. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW IS PERHAPS INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...BUT NO REPORTS OF SNOW REACHING THE GROUND YET. HOWEVER
THIS WILL CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A 150KT JET STREAK CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA SHIFTS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN
THE MORE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET DURING THE
09Z-15Z WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME...RESULTING IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
AT TIMES. A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLIDING INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY WILL HELP ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FIELD ALONG/NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH 15Z. WITH THAT SAID
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH
THIS FEATURE AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. CURRENTLY AN AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTH INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
STATE. CURRENT MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BAND OF
SNOW FROM BOTTINEAU AND ROLETTE COUNTIES SOUTHEAST INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND NORTH AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS INTO SOUTHWEST/FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO SHIFT THE
BAND OF SNOW A BIT FARTHER EAST WHICH WOULD KEEP BISMARCK AND
MANDAN OUT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS
TO A HALF INCH. PREVIOUS SNOWFALL FORECAST OF BETWEEN 2 AND 4
INCHES FROM BOTTINEAU AND RUGBY TO CARRINGTON...JAMESTOWN AND
ELLENDALE LOOKS GOOD. CURRENTLY MOST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
DEPICTING MOST AREAS IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE RATHER THAN 3-4
INCHES...BUT A FEW LOCALES COULD SEE SOME 3-4 INCH
REPORTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE
EAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THERE REMAINS
A SMALL THREAT OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WEDNESDAY SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

A FEW MINOR UPDATES EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR SNOW CHANCES.
BAND OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WAS
ADJUSTED FARTHER EAST AND BACKED OFF ON QPF THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS. UPPER LEVEL JET
DROPPING SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BRING A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SNOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP TODAY. ONLY MINOR AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD AND SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...A MORE ROBUST 150 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL DIVE
OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A PRONOUNCED 850 MB LOW AND
ENHANCED BAROCLINIC ZONE TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD SNOW EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
LOCATIONS ALONG A LINE FROM ROLLA TO CARRINGTON...JAMESTOWN AND
ELLENDALE WILL SEE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF SNOW. FURTHER
WEST...BETWEEN THE MISSOURI RIVER AND HIGHWAY 281 BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS ISSUE THAT MAY LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND
COULD PRODUCE SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS. AS THE 850 MB LOW APPROACHES
IT WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN WARM AIR ALOFT. THIS PUNCH OF WARM AIR
MAY BE PRONOUNCED ENOUGH TO DRY OUT THE MID-LEVELS AND/OR
SUFFICIENTLY MELT ANY ICE CRYSTALS. THIS WOULD IN TURN PRODUCE
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW FAR EAST THIS WARM/DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT...BUT CURRENT
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS IT ANYWHERE BETWEEN BISMARCK AND MEDINA. IF
THIS INDEED TURNS OUT TO BE THE CASE THEN SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD
LIKELY BE REDUCED AND ROAD CONDITIONS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WITH A PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE WEEK A VERY PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL RESIDE. EAST OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WEST OF THE
FRONT TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE EXPECTED.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAST MOVING WAVES
ACROSS THE REGION...GENERALLY BRINGING ONLY MINOR AMOUNTS OF RAIN
OR SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA. THE NEXT SUCH WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SCATTERED SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONLY
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS ON THE HORIZON. A TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST LATER THIS
WEEKEND. THIS COULD MEAN A RETURN TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

MVFR TO BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. KMOT/KBIS/KJMS WILL BE IN LINE FOR THESE CONDITIONS
BEGINNING EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...WITH LIGHT SNOW AND IFR
VSBYS. THERE WILL BE SOME TIME LAG BEFORE KISN AND KDIK SHIFT FROM
VFR TO MVFR. THIS WILL OCCUR AT KISN BY 15Z WED AND 20Z AT KDIK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 100545
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1145 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS A
STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR ESTEVEN SOUTHEAST TO GLEN ULLIN THEN
SNAKING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL RADAR AND GROUND
TRUTH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW STRETCHING
FROM ESTEVEN TO MOHALL...MINOT TO RUGBY AND ROLLA. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW IS PERHAPS INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...BUT NO REPORTS OF SNOW REACHING THE GROUND YET. HOWEVER
THIS WILL CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A 150KT JET STREAK CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA SHIFTS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN
THE MORE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET DURING THE
09Z-15Z WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME...RESULTING IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
AT TIMES. A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLIDING INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY WILL HELP ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FIELD ALONG/NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH 15Z. WITH THAT SAID
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH
THIS FEATURE AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. CURRENTLY AN AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTH INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
STATE. CURRENT MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BAND OF
SNOW FROM BOTTINEAU AND ROLETTE COUNTIES SOUTHEAST INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND NORTH AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS INTO SOUTHWEST/FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO SHIFT THE
BAND OF SNOW A BIT FARTHER EAST WHICH WOULD KEEP BISMARCK AND
MANDAN OUT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS
TO A HALF INCH. PREVIOUS SNOWFALL FORECAST OF BETWEEN 2 AND 4
INCHES FROM BOTTINEAU AND RUGBY TO CARRINGTON...JAMESTOWN AND
ELLENDALE LOOKS GOOD. CURRENTLY MOST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
DEPICTING MOST AREAS IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE RATHER THAN 3-4
INCHES...BUT A FEW LOCALES COULD SEE SOME 3-4 INCH
REPORTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE
EAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THERE REMAINS
A SMALL THREAT OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WEDNESDAY SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

A FEW MINOR UPDATES EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR SNOW CHANCES.
BAND OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WAS
ADJUSTED FARTHER EAST AND BACKED OFF ON QPF THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS. UPPER LEVEL JET
DROPPING SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BRING A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SNOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP TODAY. ONLY MINOR AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD AND SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...A MORE ROBUST 150 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL DIVE
OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A PRONOUNCED 850 MB LOW AND
ENHANCED BAROCLINIC ZONE TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD SNOW EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
LOCATIONS ALONG A LINE FROM ROLLA TO CARRINGTON...JAMESTOWN AND
ELLENDALE WILL SEE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF SNOW. FURTHER
WEST...BETWEEN THE MISSOURI RIVER AND HIGHWAY 281 BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS ISSUE THAT MAY LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND
COULD PRODUCE SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS. AS THE 850 MB LOW APPROACHES
IT WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN WARM AIR ALOFT. THIS PUNCH OF WARM AIR
MAY BE PRONOUNCED ENOUGH TO DRY OUT THE MID-LEVELS AND/OR
SUFFICIENTLY MELT ANY ICE CRYSTALS. THIS WOULD IN TURN PRODUCE
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW FAR EAST THIS WARM/DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT...BUT CURRENT
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS IT ANYWHERE BETWEEN BISMARCK AND MEDINA. IF
THIS INDEED TURNS OUT TO BE THE CASE THEN SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD
LIKELY BE REDUCED AND ROAD CONDITIONS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WITH A PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE WEEK A VERY PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL RESIDE. EAST OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WEST OF THE
FRONT TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE EXPECTED.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAST MOVING WAVES
ACROSS THE REGION...GENERALLY BRINGING ONLY MINOR AMOUNTS OF RAIN
OR SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA. THE NEXT SUCH WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SCATTERED SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONLY
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS ON THE HORIZON. A TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST LATER THIS
WEEKEND. THIS COULD MEAN A RETURN TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

MVFR TO BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. KMOT/KBIS/KJMS WILL BE IN LINE FOR THESE CONDITIONS
BEGINNING EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...WITH LIGHT SNOW AND IFR
VSBYS. THERE WILL BE SOME TIME LAG BEFORE KISN AND KDIK SHIFT FROM
VFR TO MVFR. THIS WILL OCCUR AT KISN BY 15Z WED AND 20Z AT KDIK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 100545
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1145 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS A
STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR ESTEVEN SOUTHEAST TO GLEN ULLIN THEN
SNAKING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL RADAR AND GROUND
TRUTH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW STRETCHING
FROM ESTEVEN TO MOHALL...MINOT TO RUGBY AND ROLLA. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW IS PERHAPS INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...BUT NO REPORTS OF SNOW REACHING THE GROUND YET. HOWEVER
THIS WILL CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A 150KT JET STREAK CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA SHIFTS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN
THE MORE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET DURING THE
09Z-15Z WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME...RESULTING IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
AT TIMES. A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLIDING INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY WILL HELP ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FIELD ALONG/NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH 15Z. WITH THAT SAID
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH
THIS FEATURE AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. CURRENTLY AN AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTH INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
STATE. CURRENT MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BAND OF
SNOW FROM BOTTINEAU AND ROLETTE COUNTIES SOUTHEAST INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND NORTH AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS INTO SOUTHWEST/FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO SHIFT THE
BAND OF SNOW A BIT FARTHER EAST WHICH WOULD KEEP BISMARCK AND
MANDAN OUT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS
TO A HALF INCH. PREVIOUS SNOWFALL FORECAST OF BETWEEN 2 AND 4
INCHES FROM BOTTINEAU AND RUGBY TO CARRINGTON...JAMESTOWN AND
ELLENDALE LOOKS GOOD. CURRENTLY MOST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
DEPICTING MOST AREAS IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE RATHER THAN 3-4
INCHES...BUT A FEW LOCALES COULD SEE SOME 3-4 INCH
REPORTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE
EAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THERE REMAINS
A SMALL THREAT OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WEDNESDAY SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

A FEW MINOR UPDATES EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR SNOW CHANCES.
BAND OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WAS
ADJUSTED FARTHER EAST AND BACKED OFF ON QPF THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS. UPPER LEVEL JET
DROPPING SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BRING A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SNOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP TODAY. ONLY MINOR AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD AND SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...A MORE ROBUST 150 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL DIVE
OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A PRONOUNCED 850 MB LOW AND
ENHANCED BAROCLINIC ZONE TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD SNOW EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
LOCATIONS ALONG A LINE FROM ROLLA TO CARRINGTON...JAMESTOWN AND
ELLENDALE WILL SEE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF SNOW. FURTHER
WEST...BETWEEN THE MISSOURI RIVER AND HIGHWAY 281 BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS ISSUE THAT MAY LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND
COULD PRODUCE SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS. AS THE 850 MB LOW APPROACHES
IT WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN WARM AIR ALOFT. THIS PUNCH OF WARM AIR
MAY BE PRONOUNCED ENOUGH TO DRY OUT THE MID-LEVELS AND/OR
SUFFICIENTLY MELT ANY ICE CRYSTALS. THIS WOULD IN TURN PRODUCE
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW FAR EAST THIS WARM/DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT...BUT CURRENT
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS IT ANYWHERE BETWEEN BISMARCK AND MEDINA. IF
THIS INDEED TURNS OUT TO BE THE CASE THEN SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD
LIKELY BE REDUCED AND ROAD CONDITIONS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WITH A PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE WEEK A VERY PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL RESIDE. EAST OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WEST OF THE
FRONT TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE EXPECTED.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAST MOVING WAVES
ACROSS THE REGION...GENERALLY BRINGING ONLY MINOR AMOUNTS OF RAIN
OR SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA. THE NEXT SUCH WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SCATTERED SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONLY
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS ON THE HORIZON. A TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST LATER THIS
WEEKEND. THIS COULD MEAN A RETURN TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

MVFR TO BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. KMOT/KBIS/KJMS WILL BE IN LINE FOR THESE CONDITIONS
BEGINNING EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...WITH LIGHT SNOW AND IFR
VSBYS. THERE WILL BE SOME TIME LAG BEFORE KISN AND KDIK SHIFT FROM
VFR TO MVFR. THIS WILL OCCUR AT KISN BY 15Z WED AND 20Z AT KDIK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KFGF 100539
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE REGION. WEB CAM AT
RUGBY SHOWS A LITTLE ACCUMULATION ON THE ROAD THERE. WITH NO WIND
THE VSBY REMAINS GOOD OR AROUND 2 MILES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT WITH 1-2 INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW
FROM WEST OF KDVL DOWN THRU KJMS...WITH AMOUNTS DECREASING TOWARD
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THESE LATEST RUNS KEEP ANY SNOW OUT OF
KGFK/KFAR BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT
SNOW AT TIMES. STILL NOTHING TO THE EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT WILL BE TIMING...PLACEMENT AND
ACCUMULATION FOR A QUICK MOVING SNOW BAND TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
WITH THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE OVER THE
GENERAL AREA FROM CANDO TO DEVILS LAKE TO VALLEY CITY TO GWINNER
AND POINTS WEST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW AREA...MESOSCALE
INDUCED...OF HIGHER SNOWFALL IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE AS
850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS STRONG. WHERE THIS BAND MAY SET
UP WILL HAVE TO BE SEEN ONCE REGIONAL MESOSCALE RUNS CAN BE
ASSESSED FOR TRENDS. WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL
FOR THIS BANDING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST INTO
THE DVL BSN 06-09Z AND SE ND BY 12Z AND QUICKLY EXIT WEDNESDAY
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS WILL RANGE WIDELY FROM WEST TO
EAST ONCE AGAIN WITH NEAR 20 IN SE ND AND 5 IN THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON CLOUD
COVER...WITH CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMP TO FALL BELOW ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH 925MB
TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY. FRIDAY
HIGHS WILL BE STEADY TO FALLING WITH MORNING MAXIMUMS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

FRIDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...NW MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY GIVES WAY TO
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SATURDAY PRIOR TO NEXT WAVE PASSAGE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH WAVE HOWEVER
THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR NEXT SHOT OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. COLDEST MORNING IN SOME TIME SATURDAY AM WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK TO AVERAGE TO FINISH WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK WEAK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST MODELS
KEEP ANY LIGHT SNOW OUT OF KFAR/KGFK...SO HAVE REMOVED THAT FROM
THE LATEST TAFS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW REMAIN AT KDVL...WHICH
COULD DROP THE VSBY THERE BELOW A MILE AT TIMES. WITH LITTLE OR NO
SNOW AT KGFK/KFAR...ALSO INCREASED THE CEILINGS. WORST CEILINGS
WILL ALSO BE WITH THE SNOW AT KDVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 100539
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE REGION. WEB CAM AT
RUGBY SHOWS A LITTLE ACCUMULATION ON THE ROAD THERE. WITH NO WIND
THE VSBY REMAINS GOOD OR AROUND 2 MILES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT WITH 1-2 INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW
FROM WEST OF KDVL DOWN THRU KJMS...WITH AMOUNTS DECREASING TOWARD
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THESE LATEST RUNS KEEP ANY SNOW OUT OF
KGFK/KFAR BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT
SNOW AT TIMES. STILL NOTHING TO THE EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT WILL BE TIMING...PLACEMENT AND
ACCUMULATION FOR A QUICK MOVING SNOW BAND TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
WITH THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE OVER THE
GENERAL AREA FROM CANDO TO DEVILS LAKE TO VALLEY CITY TO GWINNER
AND POINTS WEST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW AREA...MESOSCALE
INDUCED...OF HIGHER SNOWFALL IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE AS
850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS STRONG. WHERE THIS BAND MAY SET
UP WILL HAVE TO BE SEEN ONCE REGIONAL MESOSCALE RUNS CAN BE
ASSESSED FOR TRENDS. WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL
FOR THIS BANDING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST INTO
THE DVL BSN 06-09Z AND SE ND BY 12Z AND QUICKLY EXIT WEDNESDAY
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS WILL RANGE WIDELY FROM WEST TO
EAST ONCE AGAIN WITH NEAR 20 IN SE ND AND 5 IN THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON CLOUD
COVER...WITH CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMP TO FALL BELOW ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH 925MB
TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY. FRIDAY
HIGHS WILL BE STEADY TO FALLING WITH MORNING MAXIMUMS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

FRIDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...NW MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY GIVES WAY TO
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SATURDAY PRIOR TO NEXT WAVE PASSAGE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH WAVE HOWEVER
THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR NEXT SHOT OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. COLDEST MORNING IN SOME TIME SATURDAY AM WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK TO AVERAGE TO FINISH WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK WEAK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST MODELS
KEEP ANY LIGHT SNOW OUT OF KFAR/KGFK...SO HAVE REMOVED THAT FROM
THE LATEST TAFS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW REMAIN AT KDVL...WHICH
COULD DROP THE VSBY THERE BELOW A MILE AT TIMES. WITH LITTLE OR NO
SNOW AT KGFK/KFAR...ALSO INCREASED THE CEILINGS. WORST CEILINGS
WILL ALSO BE WITH THE SNOW AT KDVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KBIS 100355
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
955 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. CURRENTLY AN AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTH INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
STATE. CURRENT MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BAND OF
SNOW FROM BOTTINEAU AND ROLETTE COUNTIES SOUTHEAST INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND NORTH AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS INTO SOUTHWEST/FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO SHIFT THE
BAND OF SNOW A BIT FARTHER EAST WHICH WOULD KEEP BISMARCK AND
MANDAN OUT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS
TO A HALF INCH. PREVIOUS SNOWFALL FORECAST OF BETWEEN 2 AND 4
INCHES FROM BOTTINEAU AND RUGBY TO CARRINGTON...JAMESTOWN AND
ELLENDALE LOOKS GOOD. CURRENTLY MOST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
DEPICTING MOST AREAS IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE RATHER THAN 3-4
INCHES...BUT A FEW LOCALES COULD SEE SOME 3-4 INCH
REPORTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE
EAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THERE REMAINS
A SMALL THREAT OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WEDNESDAY SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

A FEW MINOR UPDATES EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR SNOW CHANCES.
BAND OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WAS
ADJUSTED FARTHER EAST AND BACKED OFF ON QPF THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS. UPPER LEVEL JET
DROPPING SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BRING A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SNOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP TODAY. ONLY MINOR AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD AND SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...A MORE ROBUST 150 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL DIVE
OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A PRONOUNCED 850 MB LOW AND
ENHANCED BAROCLINIC ZONE TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD SNOW EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
LOCATIONS ALONG A LINE FROM ROLLA TO CARRINGTON...JAMESTOWN AND
ELLENDALE WILL SEE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF SNOW. FURTHER
WEST...BETWEEN THE MISSOURI RIVER AND HIGHWAY 281 BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS ISSUE THAT MAY LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND
COULD PRODUCE SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS. AS THE 850 MB LOW APPROACHES
IT WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN WARM AIR ALOFT. THIS PUNCH OF WARM AIR
MAY BE PRONOUNCED ENOUGH TO DRY OUT THE MID-LEVELS AND/OR
SUFFICIENTLY MELT ANY ICE CRYSTALS. THIS WOULD IN TURN PRODUCE
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW FAR EAST THIS WARM/DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT...BUT CURRENT
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS IT ANYWHERE BETWEEN BISMARCK AND MEDINA. IF
THIS INDEED TURNS OUT TO BE THE CASE THEN SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD
LIKELY BE REDUCED AND ROAD CONDITIONS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WITH A PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE WEEK A VERY PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL RESIDE. EAST OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WEST OF THE
FRONT TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE EXPECTED.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAST MOVING WAVES
ACROSS THE REGION...GENERALLY BRINGING ONLY MINOR AMOUNTS OF RAIN
OR SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA. THE NEXT SUCH WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SCATTERED SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONLY
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS ON THE HORIZON. A TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST LATER THIS
WEEKEND. THIS COULD MEAN A RETURN TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

TONIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT
KMOT/KBIS/KJMS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT KMOT/KBIS COULD SEE SOME
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THE TAF. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KISN AND KDIK TONIGHT
BUT AREA OF STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST AND COVER THESE TAF
SITES BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KFGF 100324
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
924 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SOME FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED AT KMOT AND RUGBY...SO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH CALLED FOR A LATE EVENING ARRIVAL OF THE
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA STILL LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES
NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT WILL BE TIMING...PLACEMENT AND
ACCUMULATION FOR A QUICK MOVING SNOW BAND TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
WITH THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE OVER THE
GENERAL AREA FROM CANDO TO DEVILS LAKE TO VALLEY CITY TO GWINNER
AND POINTS WEST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW AREA...MESOSCALE
INDUCED...OF HIGHER SNOWFALL IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE AS
850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS STRONG. WHERE THIS BAND MAY SET
UP WILL HAVE TO BE SEEN ONCE REGIONAL MESOSCALE RUNS CAN BE
ASSESSED FOR TRENDS. WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL
FOR THIS BANDING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST INTO
THE DVL BSN 06-09Z AND SE ND BY 12Z AND QUICKLY EXIT WEDNESDAY
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS WILL RANGE WIDELY FROM WEST TO
EAST ONCE AGAIN WITH NEAR 20 IN SE ND AND 5 IN THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON CLOUD
COVER...WITH CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMP TO FALL BELOW ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH 925MB
TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY. FRIDAY
HIGHS WILL BE STEADY TO FALLING WITH MORNING MAXIMUMS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

FRIDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...NW MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY GIVES WAY TO
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SATURDAY PRIOR TO NEXT WAVE PASSAGE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH WAVE HOWEVER
THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR NEXT SHOT OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. COLDEST MORNING IN SOME TIME SATURDAY AM WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK TO AVERAGE TO FINISH WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE VFR RANGE AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY
UNTIL THE SNOW BEGINS TO MOVE IN. EXPECTING THIS TO BE AROUND 09Z
AT KDVL AND AROUND 13Z AT KGFK/KFAR. THE SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO
AFFECT EITHER KTVF OR KBJI. KGFK/KFAR MAY BE MORE ON THE FRINGE SO
VSBYS SHOULD BE BETTER THAN AT KDVL. AS STEADIER SNOW MOVES INTO
THE KDVL AREA THE VSBY WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE. A GOOD
THING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE LACK OF MUCH WIND.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KBIS 100034
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

A FEW MINOR UPDATES EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR SNOW CHANCES.
BAND OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WAS
ADJUSTED FARTHER EAST AND BACKED OFF ON QPF THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS. UPPER LEVEL JET
DROPPING SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BRING A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SNOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP TODAY. ONLY MINOR AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD AND SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...A MORE ROBUST 150 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL DIVE
OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A PRONOUNCED 850 MB LOW AND
ENHANCED BAROCLINIC ZONE TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD SNOW EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
LOCATIONS ALONG A LINE FROM ROLLA TO CARRINGTON...JAMESTOWN AND
ELLENDALE WILL SEE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF SNOW. FURTHER
WEST...BETWEEN THE MISSOURI RIVER AND HIGHWAY 281 BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS ISSUE THAT MAY LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND
COULD PRODUCE SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS. AS THE 850 MB LOW APPROACHES
IT WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN WARM AIR ALOFT. THIS PUNCH OF WARM AIR
MAY BE PRONOUNCED ENOUGH TO DRY OUT THE MID-LEVELS AND/OR
SUFFICIENTLY MELT ANY ICE CRYSTALS. THIS WOULD IN TURN PRODUCE
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW FAR EAST THIS WARM/DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT...BUT CURRENT
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS IT ANYWHERE BETWEEN BISMARCK AND MEDINA. IF
THIS INDEED TURNS OUT TO BE THE CASE THEN SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD
LIKELY BE REDUCED AND ROAD CONDITIONS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WITH A PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE WEEK A VERY PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL RESIDE. EAST OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WEST OF THE
FRONT TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE EXPECTED.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAST MOVING WAVES
ACROSS THE REGION...GENERALLY BRINGING ONLY MINOR AMOUNTS OF RAIN
OR SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA. THE NEXT SUCH WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SCATTERED SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONLY
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS ON THE HORIZON. A TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST LATER THIS
WEEKEND. THIS COULD MEAN A RETURN TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT...MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS. IT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT KMOT/KBIS COULD SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 100034
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

A FEW MINOR UPDATES EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR SNOW CHANCES.
BAND OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WAS
ADJUSTED FARTHER EAST AND BACKED OFF ON QPF THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS. UPPER LEVEL JET
DROPPING SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BRING A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SNOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP TODAY. ONLY MINOR AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD AND SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...A MORE ROBUST 150 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL DIVE
OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A PRONOUNCED 850 MB LOW AND
ENHANCED BAROCLINIC ZONE TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD SNOW EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
LOCATIONS ALONG A LINE FROM ROLLA TO CARRINGTON...JAMESTOWN AND
ELLENDALE WILL SEE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF SNOW. FURTHER
WEST...BETWEEN THE MISSOURI RIVER AND HIGHWAY 281 BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS ISSUE THAT MAY LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND
COULD PRODUCE SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS. AS THE 850 MB LOW APPROACHES
IT WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN WARM AIR ALOFT. THIS PUNCH OF WARM AIR
MAY BE PRONOUNCED ENOUGH TO DRY OUT THE MID-LEVELS AND/OR
SUFFICIENTLY MELT ANY ICE CRYSTALS. THIS WOULD IN TURN PRODUCE
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW FAR EAST THIS WARM/DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT...BUT CURRENT
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS IT ANYWHERE BETWEEN BISMARCK AND MEDINA. IF
THIS INDEED TURNS OUT TO BE THE CASE THEN SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD
LIKELY BE REDUCED AND ROAD CONDITIONS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WITH A PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE WEEK A VERY PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL RESIDE. EAST OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WEST OF THE
FRONT TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE EXPECTED.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAST MOVING WAVES
ACROSS THE REGION...GENERALLY BRINGING ONLY MINOR AMOUNTS OF RAIN
OR SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA. THE NEXT SUCH WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SCATTERED SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONLY
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS ON THE HORIZON. A TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST LATER THIS
WEEKEND. THIS COULD MEAN A RETURN TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT...MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS. IT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT KMOT/KBIS COULD SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 100034
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

A FEW MINOR UPDATES EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR SNOW CHANCES.
BAND OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WAS
ADJUSTED FARTHER EAST AND BACKED OFF ON QPF THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS. UPPER LEVEL JET
DROPPING SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BRING A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SNOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP TODAY. ONLY MINOR AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD AND SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...A MORE ROBUST 150 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL DIVE
OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A PRONOUNCED 850 MB LOW AND
ENHANCED BAROCLINIC ZONE TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD SNOW EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
LOCATIONS ALONG A LINE FROM ROLLA TO CARRINGTON...JAMESTOWN AND
ELLENDALE WILL SEE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF SNOW. FURTHER
WEST...BETWEEN THE MISSOURI RIVER AND HIGHWAY 281 BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS ISSUE THAT MAY LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND
COULD PRODUCE SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS. AS THE 850 MB LOW APPROACHES
IT WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN WARM AIR ALOFT. THIS PUNCH OF WARM AIR
MAY BE PRONOUNCED ENOUGH TO DRY OUT THE MID-LEVELS AND/OR
SUFFICIENTLY MELT ANY ICE CRYSTALS. THIS WOULD IN TURN PRODUCE
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW FAR EAST THIS WARM/DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT...BUT CURRENT
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS IT ANYWHERE BETWEEN BISMARCK AND MEDINA. IF
THIS INDEED TURNS OUT TO BE THE CASE THEN SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD
LIKELY BE REDUCED AND ROAD CONDITIONS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WITH A PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE WEEK A VERY PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL RESIDE. EAST OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WEST OF THE
FRONT TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE EXPECTED.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAST MOVING WAVES
ACROSS THE REGION...GENERALLY BRINGING ONLY MINOR AMOUNTS OF RAIN
OR SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA. THE NEXT SUCH WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SCATTERED SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONLY
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS ON THE HORIZON. A TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST LATER THIS
WEEKEND. THIS COULD MEAN A RETURN TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT...MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS. IT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT KMOT/KBIS COULD SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KFGF 100029
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
629 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

STILL HAVE CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH MORE
CLOUDS TO THE WEST. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO NOT BRING ANY LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE FA UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
AT THIS POINT AND COVERS THESE ELEMENTS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT WILL BE TIMING...PLACEMENT AND
ACCUMULATION FOR A QUICK MOVING SNOW BAND TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
WITH THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE OVER THE
GENERAL AREA FROM CANDO TO DEVILS LAKE TO VALLEY CITY TO GWINNER
AND POINTS WEST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW AREA...MESOSCALE
INDUCED...OF HIGHER SNOWFALL IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE AS
850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS STRONG. WHERE THIS BAND MAY SET
UP WILL HAVE TO BE SEEN ONCE REGIONAL MESOSCALE RUNS CAN BE
ASSESSED FOR TRENDS. WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL
FOR THIS BANDING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST INTO
THE DVL BSN 06-09Z AND SE ND BY 12Z AND QUICKLY EXIT WEDNESDAY
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS WILL RANGE WIDELY FROM WEST TO
EAST ONCE AGAIN WITH NEAR 20 IN SE ND AND 5 IN THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON CLOUD
COVER...WITH CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMP TO FALL BELOW ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH 925MB
TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY. FRIDAY
HIGHS WILL BE STEADY TO FALLING WITH MORNING MAXIMUMS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

FRIDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...NW MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY GIVES WAY TO
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SATURDAY PRIOR TO NEXT WAVE PASSAGE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH WAVE HOWEVER
THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR NEXT SHOT OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. COLDEST MORNING IN SOME TIME SATURDAY AM WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK TO AVERAGE TO FINISH WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE VFR RANGE AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY
UNTIL THE SNOW BEGINS TO MOVE IN. EXPECTING THIS TO BE AROUND 09Z
AT KDVL AND AROUND 13Z AT KGFK/KFAR. THE SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO
AFFECT EITHER KTVF OR KBJI. KGFK/KFAR MAY BE MORE ON THE FRINGE SO
VSBYS SHOULD BE BETTER THAN AT KDVL. AS STEADIER SNOW MOVES INTO
THE KDVL AREA THE VSBY WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE. A GOOD
THING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE LACK OF MUCH WIND.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 100029
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
629 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

STILL HAVE CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH MORE
CLOUDS TO THE WEST. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO NOT BRING ANY LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE FA UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
AT THIS POINT AND COVERS THESE ELEMENTS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT WILL BE TIMING...PLACEMENT AND
ACCUMULATION FOR A QUICK MOVING SNOW BAND TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
WITH THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE OVER THE
GENERAL AREA FROM CANDO TO DEVILS LAKE TO VALLEY CITY TO GWINNER
AND POINTS WEST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW AREA...MESOSCALE
INDUCED...OF HIGHER SNOWFALL IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE AS
850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS STRONG. WHERE THIS BAND MAY SET
UP WILL HAVE TO BE SEEN ONCE REGIONAL MESOSCALE RUNS CAN BE
ASSESSED FOR TRENDS. WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL
FOR THIS BANDING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST INTO
THE DVL BSN 06-09Z AND SE ND BY 12Z AND QUICKLY EXIT WEDNESDAY
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS WILL RANGE WIDELY FROM WEST TO
EAST ONCE AGAIN WITH NEAR 20 IN SE ND AND 5 IN THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON CLOUD
COVER...WITH CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMP TO FALL BELOW ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH 925MB
TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY. FRIDAY
HIGHS WILL BE STEADY TO FALLING WITH MORNING MAXIMUMS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

FRIDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...NW MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY GIVES WAY TO
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SATURDAY PRIOR TO NEXT WAVE PASSAGE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH WAVE HOWEVER
THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR NEXT SHOT OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. COLDEST MORNING IN SOME TIME SATURDAY AM WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK TO AVERAGE TO FINISH WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE VFR RANGE AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY
UNTIL THE SNOW BEGINS TO MOVE IN. EXPECTING THIS TO BE AROUND 09Z
AT KDVL AND AROUND 13Z AT KGFK/KFAR. THE SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO
AFFECT EITHER KTVF OR KBJI. KGFK/KFAR MAY BE MORE ON THE FRINGE SO
VSBYS SHOULD BE BETTER THAN AT KDVL. AS STEADIER SNOW MOVES INTO
THE KDVL AREA THE VSBY WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE. A GOOD
THING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE LACK OF MUCH WIND.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON



000
FXUS63 KFGF 100029
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
629 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

STILL HAVE CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH MORE
CLOUDS TO THE WEST. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO NOT BRING ANY LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE FA UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
AT THIS POINT AND COVERS THESE ELEMENTS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT WILL BE TIMING...PLACEMENT AND
ACCUMULATION FOR A QUICK MOVING SNOW BAND TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
WITH THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE OVER THE
GENERAL AREA FROM CANDO TO DEVILS LAKE TO VALLEY CITY TO GWINNER
AND POINTS WEST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW AREA...MESOSCALE
INDUCED...OF HIGHER SNOWFALL IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE AS
850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS STRONG. WHERE THIS BAND MAY SET
UP WILL HAVE TO BE SEEN ONCE REGIONAL MESOSCALE RUNS CAN BE
ASSESSED FOR TRENDS. WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL
FOR THIS BANDING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST INTO
THE DVL BSN 06-09Z AND SE ND BY 12Z AND QUICKLY EXIT WEDNESDAY
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS WILL RANGE WIDELY FROM WEST TO
EAST ONCE AGAIN WITH NEAR 20 IN SE ND AND 5 IN THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON CLOUD
COVER...WITH CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMP TO FALL BELOW ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH 925MB
TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY. FRIDAY
HIGHS WILL BE STEADY TO FALLING WITH MORNING MAXIMUMS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

FRIDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...NW MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY GIVES WAY TO
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SATURDAY PRIOR TO NEXT WAVE PASSAGE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH WAVE HOWEVER
THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR NEXT SHOT OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. COLDEST MORNING IN SOME TIME SATURDAY AM WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK TO AVERAGE TO FINISH WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE VFR RANGE AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY
UNTIL THE SNOW BEGINS TO MOVE IN. EXPECTING THIS TO BE AROUND 09Z
AT KDVL AND AROUND 13Z AT KGFK/KFAR. THE SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO
AFFECT EITHER KTVF OR KBJI. KGFK/KFAR MAY BE MORE ON THE FRINGE SO
VSBYS SHOULD BE BETTER THAN AT KDVL. AS STEADIER SNOW MOVES INTO
THE KDVL AREA THE VSBY WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE. A GOOD
THING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE LACK OF MUCH WIND.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KBIS 092127
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
327 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP TODAY. ONLY MINOR AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD AND SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...A MORE ROBUST 150 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL DIVE
OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A PRONOUNCED 850 MB LOW AND
ENHANCED BAROCLINIC ZONE TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD SNOW EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
LOCATIONS ALONG A LINE FROM ROLLA TO CARRINGTON...JAMESTOWN AND
ELLENDALE WILL SEE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF SNOW. FURTHER
WEST...BETWEEN THE MISSOURI RIVER AND HIGHWAY 281 BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS ISSUE THAT MAY LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND
COULD PRODUCE SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS. AS THE 850 MB LOW APPROACHES
IT WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN WARM AIR ALOFT. THIS PUNCH OF WARM AIR
MAY BE PRONOUNCED ENOUGH TO DRY OUT THE MID-LEVELS AND/OR
SUFFICIENTLY MELT ANY ICE CRYSTALS. THIS WOULD IN TURN PRODUCE
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW FAR EAST THIS WARM/DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT...BUT CURRENT
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS IT ANYWHERE BETWEEN BISMARCK AND MEDINA. IF
THIS INDEED TURNS OUT TO BE THE CASE THEN SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD
LIKELY BE REDUCED AND ROAD CONDITIONS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WITH A PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE WEEK A VERY PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL RESIDE. EAST OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WEST OF THE
FRONT TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE EXPECTED.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAST MOVING WAVES
ACROSS THE REGION...GENERALLY BRINGING ONLY MINOR AMOUNTS OF RAIN
OR SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA. THE NEXT SUCH WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SCATTERED SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONLY
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS ON THE HORIZON. A TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST LATER THIS
WEEKEND. THIS COULD MEAN A RETURN TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. KISN MAY SEE SOME BRIEF SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY.

TONIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW  ARE POSSIBLE AT
KMOT/KBIS/KJMS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT KMOT/KBIS COULD SEE SOME
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THE TAF.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KFGF 092121
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
321 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT WILL BE TIMING...PLACEMENT AND
ACCUMULATION FOR A QUICK MOVING SNOW BAND TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
WITH THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE OVER THE
GENERAL AREA FROM CANDO TO DEVILS LAKE TO VALLEY CITY TO GWINNER
AND POINTS WEST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW AREA...MESOSCALE
INDUCED...OF HIGHER SNOWFALL IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE AS
850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS STRONG. WHERE THIS BAND MAY SET
UP WILL HAVE TO BE SEEN ONCE REGIONAL MESOSCALE RUNS CAN BE
ASSESSED FOR TRENDS. WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL
FOR THIS BANDING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST INTO
THE DVL BSN 06-09Z AND SE ND BY 12Z AND QUICKLY EXIT WEDNESDAY
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS WILL RANGE WIDELY FROM WEST TO
EAST ONCE AGAIN WITH NEAR 20 IN SE ND AND 5 IN THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON CLOUD
COVER...WITH CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMP TO FALL BELOW ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH 925MB
TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY. FRIDAY
HIGHS WILL BE STEADY TO FALLING WITH MORNING MAXIMUMS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

FRIDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...NW MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY GIVES WAY TO
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SATURDAY PRIOR TO NEXT WAVE PASSAGE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH WAVE HOWEVER
THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR NEXT SHOT OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. COLDEST MORNING IN SOME TIME SATURDAY AM WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK TO AVERAGE TO FINISH WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF DVL. LOWERED CIGS/VSBY IN -SN TO MVFR RANGE
TOWARDS MORNING AS NEXT MODEST SNOW SYSTEM MOVES. UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
FAR EAST SNOW WILL GET SO LEFT FAR/GFK DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 091845
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATED THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

FAIRLY FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP...AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CWA...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CLEAR SKIES ARE ON THE EDGE OF
THE HIGHS WHILE THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN HAS SEEN CLOUD COVER MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN CWA HAVE FALLEN
DOWN TO JUST BELOW ZERO...AND WIND CHILLS ARE IN THE 15 TO 20
BELOW RANGE. THINK THAT THE WIND CHILLS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE
DECREASING WINDS AND INCOMING CLOUDS...ALLOWING A BRIEF DROP TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS MORNING IN ISOLATED SPOTS BUT NOTHING TOO
WIDESPREAD. WILL KEEP US HEADLINE FREE FOR NOW BUT MONITOR. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES EVEN WITH SOME SUN...WHILE THE WEST WILL BE IN A SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR MASS AND READINGS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE TEENS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT
ON BRINGING A VIGOROUS JET STREAK DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT INTO OUR AREA. THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL MOSTLY BE OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THE WESTERN CWA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK FOR A WHILE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME VARIATIONS ON HOW FAR EAST THE MODELS
BRING THE QPF...AND SOME ENSEMBLE RUNS KEEP EVERYTHING WEST OF US.
HOWEVER...THINK THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO KEEP OUR FAR
WESTERN TIER WITH LIKELY LIGHT SNOW FOR A PERIOD WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH CHANCE POPS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
A FAIRLY QUICK SHOT SO THINK THAT AMOUNTS WILL BE ONLY AN INCH OR
TWO EVEN WITH SOME OF THE MODELS SHOWING SOME HEALTHY QPF. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COLD OVER THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WITH PERIODIC WEAK SHORTWAVES OR JET STREAKS MOVING THROUGH WILL
CONTINUE. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONE OF THOSE MINOR FEATURES...SO
WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN AS THEY HAVE BEEN...WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT FROM
COLD IN THE NORTHEAST TO MORE MILD IN THE SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NW FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTING THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW WAVES CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA. A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...DROPPING LOWS INTO THE 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO RANGE. THE SFC
RIDGE WILL MOVE E FAIRLY RAPIDLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM...WITH
RETURN FLOW HELPING TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE MEASURABLE PCPN BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF DVL. LOWERED CIGS/VSBY IN -SN TO MVFR RANGE
TOWARDS MORNING AS NEXT MODEST SNOW SYSTEM MOVES. UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
FAR EAST SNOW WILL GET SO LEFT FAR/GFK DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 091845
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATED THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

FAIRLY FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP...AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CWA...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CLEAR SKIES ARE ON THE EDGE OF
THE HIGHS WHILE THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN HAS SEEN CLOUD COVER MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN CWA HAVE FALLEN
DOWN TO JUST BELOW ZERO...AND WIND CHILLS ARE IN THE 15 TO 20
BELOW RANGE. THINK THAT THE WIND CHILLS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE
DECREASING WINDS AND INCOMING CLOUDS...ALLOWING A BRIEF DROP TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS MORNING IN ISOLATED SPOTS BUT NOTHING TOO
WIDESPREAD. WILL KEEP US HEADLINE FREE FOR NOW BUT MONITOR. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES EVEN WITH SOME SUN...WHILE THE WEST WILL BE IN A SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR MASS AND READINGS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE TEENS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT
ON BRINGING A VIGOROUS JET STREAK DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT INTO OUR AREA. THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL MOSTLY BE OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THE WESTERN CWA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK FOR A WHILE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME VARIATIONS ON HOW FAR EAST THE MODELS
BRING THE QPF...AND SOME ENSEMBLE RUNS KEEP EVERYTHING WEST OF US.
HOWEVER...THINK THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO KEEP OUR FAR
WESTERN TIER WITH LIKELY LIGHT SNOW FOR A PERIOD WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH CHANCE POPS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
A FAIRLY QUICK SHOT SO THINK THAT AMOUNTS WILL BE ONLY AN INCH OR
TWO EVEN WITH SOME OF THE MODELS SHOWING SOME HEALTHY QPF. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COLD OVER THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WITH PERIODIC WEAK SHORTWAVES OR JET STREAKS MOVING THROUGH WILL
CONTINUE. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONE OF THOSE MINOR FEATURES...SO
WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN AS THEY HAVE BEEN...WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT FROM
COLD IN THE NORTHEAST TO MORE MILD IN THE SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NW FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTING THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW WAVES CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA. A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...DROPPING LOWS INTO THE 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO RANGE. THE SFC
RIDGE WILL MOVE E FAIRLY RAPIDLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM...WITH
RETURN FLOW HELPING TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE MEASURABLE PCPN BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF DVL. LOWERED CIGS/VSBY IN -SN TO MVFR RANGE
TOWARDS MORNING AS NEXT MODEST SNOW SYSTEM MOVES. UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
FAR EAST SNOW WILL GET SO LEFT FAR/GFK DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KBIS 091837
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST.

RADAR IS JUST BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS THAT PRECIPITATION IS
FORMING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. IT IS STILL UNLIKELY THAT
ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. TEMPERATURES
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WERE ABOVE FREEZING...SO ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY FALL AS RAIN OR SNOW THAT
QUICKLY MELTS. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

FOR THIS UPDATE...REMOVED ANY MENTION OF FREEZING DURING THE DAY
TODAY. MODELS ARE OVER FORECASTING PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AS
RADAR AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY
OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND UPSTREAM IN CANADA.
FURTHERMORE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HIGH-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS
DELAY THE WARM AIR ALOFT INTRUSION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...KEEPING
THE ATMOSPHERE BELOW FREEZING ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD
ELIMINATE THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND FAVOR SIMPLY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR TRANSITION BASED SOLELY ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

NO CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 12 UTC. THE 09 THROUGH 11 UTC RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS AND 06
UTC NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN
SOUTHWEST AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FAR NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT BAND OF ECHOES ON THE
REGIONAL RADAR CENTRAL THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WITH NO PRECIPITATION OBSERVED ON WEBCAMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SHORT TERM HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WEST
TODAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
OCCUR IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WITH A NARROW AREA OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
IN THE HWO/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW AND ADJUSTMENTS CAN
BE MADE LATER TODAY IF FORECAST CONDITIONS LOOK DIFFERENT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DETAIL A CLOUDY SKY FOR
ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A CLOUDY SKY
WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS A STATIONARY FRONT
SEPARATES WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST FROM COLDER AIR IN THE
EAST. A DISTINCT CONTRAST IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TODAY...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PACIFIC SHORTWAVES RIDING UP
AND OVER THE RIDGE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
INTERACT WITH THE STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
CENTRAL ALBERTA. AS IT APPROACHES NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND THEN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE
H850-H3 OMEGA FIELD WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL
PRODUCE THE VERTICAL MOTION NEEDED TO GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN WEST TODAY...SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW SLIDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PRODUCE HIGHER POPS
AND SNOW AMOUNTS LATER TONIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
ALSO ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT...WITH AROUND 1 INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE
COLD/SATURATED SECTOR OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...WITH A NARROW AREA
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PORTRAY A DRY LAYER ALOFT WITH NEAR
SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLET REGIME.
OMEGA LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT
THINKING IS THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT RESULTING IN SNOW AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A COOL
DOWN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHORT TERM TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH THE
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BAND
FROM BOWBELLS THROUGH BISMARCK AND LINTON...FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT AROUND +2 TO +3 C AND A
POTENTIAL LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...OVERALL
QPF WEDNESDAY MORNING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BAND IS FORECAST
TO BE VERY LIGHT ON THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. THUS...WILL
HIGHLIGHT FOR NOW ONLY IN THE HWO. FURTHER EAST...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF
NEW ACCUMULATION.

THEREAFTER...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO
RESIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TWO ARCTIC HIGHS FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FEATURE ARE A BIT WIDE GIVEN THE WAVE STILL
WELL OFF SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. KISN MAY SEE SOME BRIEF SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY.

TONIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW  ARE POSSIBLE AT
KMOT/KBIS/KJMS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT KMOT/KBIS COULD SEE SOME
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THE TAF.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KBIS 091837
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST.

RADAR IS JUST BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS THAT PRECIPITATION IS
FORMING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. IT IS STILL UNLIKELY THAT
ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. TEMPERATURES
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WERE ABOVE FREEZING...SO ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY FALL AS RAIN OR SNOW THAT
QUICKLY MELTS. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

FOR THIS UPDATE...REMOVED ANY MENTION OF FREEZING DURING THE DAY
TODAY. MODELS ARE OVER FORECASTING PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AS
RADAR AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY
OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND UPSTREAM IN CANADA.
FURTHERMORE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HIGH-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS
DELAY THE WARM AIR ALOFT INTRUSION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...KEEPING
THE ATMOSPHERE BELOW FREEZING ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD
ELIMINATE THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND FAVOR SIMPLY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR TRANSITION BASED SOLELY ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

NO CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 12 UTC. THE 09 THROUGH 11 UTC RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS AND 06
UTC NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN
SOUTHWEST AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FAR NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT BAND OF ECHOES ON THE
REGIONAL RADAR CENTRAL THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WITH NO PRECIPITATION OBSERVED ON WEBCAMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SHORT TERM HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WEST
TODAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
OCCUR IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WITH A NARROW AREA OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
IN THE HWO/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW AND ADJUSTMENTS CAN
BE MADE LATER TODAY IF FORECAST CONDITIONS LOOK DIFFERENT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DETAIL A CLOUDY SKY FOR
ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A CLOUDY SKY
WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS A STATIONARY FRONT
SEPARATES WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST FROM COLDER AIR IN THE
EAST. A DISTINCT CONTRAST IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TODAY...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PACIFIC SHORTWAVES RIDING UP
AND OVER THE RIDGE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
INTERACT WITH THE STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
CENTRAL ALBERTA. AS IT APPROACHES NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND THEN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE
H850-H3 OMEGA FIELD WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL
PRODUCE THE VERTICAL MOTION NEEDED TO GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN WEST TODAY...SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW SLIDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PRODUCE HIGHER POPS
AND SNOW AMOUNTS LATER TONIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
ALSO ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT...WITH AROUND 1 INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE
COLD/SATURATED SECTOR OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...WITH A NARROW AREA
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PORTRAY A DRY LAYER ALOFT WITH NEAR
SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLET REGIME.
OMEGA LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT
THINKING IS THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT RESULTING IN SNOW AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A COOL
DOWN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHORT TERM TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH THE
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BAND
FROM BOWBELLS THROUGH BISMARCK AND LINTON...FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT AROUND +2 TO +3 C AND A
POTENTIAL LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...OVERALL
QPF WEDNESDAY MORNING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BAND IS FORECAST
TO BE VERY LIGHT ON THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. THUS...WILL
HIGHLIGHT FOR NOW ONLY IN THE HWO. FURTHER EAST...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF
NEW ACCUMULATION.

THEREAFTER...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO
RESIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TWO ARCTIC HIGHS FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FEATURE ARE A BIT WIDE GIVEN THE WAVE STILL
WELL OFF SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. KISN MAY SEE SOME BRIEF SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY.

TONIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW  ARE POSSIBLE AT
KMOT/KBIS/KJMS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT KMOT/KBIS COULD SEE SOME
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THE TAF.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KBIS 091837
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST.

RADAR IS JUST BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS THAT PRECIPITATION IS
FORMING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. IT IS STILL UNLIKELY THAT
ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. TEMPERATURES
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WERE ABOVE FREEZING...SO ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY FALL AS RAIN OR SNOW THAT
QUICKLY MELTS. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

FOR THIS UPDATE...REMOVED ANY MENTION OF FREEZING DURING THE DAY
TODAY. MODELS ARE OVER FORECASTING PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AS
RADAR AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY
OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND UPSTREAM IN CANADA.
FURTHERMORE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HIGH-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS
DELAY THE WARM AIR ALOFT INTRUSION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...KEEPING
THE ATMOSPHERE BELOW FREEZING ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD
ELIMINATE THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND FAVOR SIMPLY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR TRANSITION BASED SOLELY ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

NO CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 12 UTC. THE 09 THROUGH 11 UTC RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS AND 06
UTC NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN
SOUTHWEST AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FAR NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT BAND OF ECHOES ON THE
REGIONAL RADAR CENTRAL THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WITH NO PRECIPITATION OBSERVED ON WEBCAMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SHORT TERM HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WEST
TODAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
OCCUR IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WITH A NARROW AREA OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
IN THE HWO/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW AND ADJUSTMENTS CAN
BE MADE LATER TODAY IF FORECAST CONDITIONS LOOK DIFFERENT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DETAIL A CLOUDY SKY FOR
ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A CLOUDY SKY
WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS A STATIONARY FRONT
SEPARATES WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST FROM COLDER AIR IN THE
EAST. A DISTINCT CONTRAST IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TODAY...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PACIFIC SHORTWAVES RIDING UP
AND OVER THE RIDGE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
INTERACT WITH THE STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
CENTRAL ALBERTA. AS IT APPROACHES NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND THEN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE
H850-H3 OMEGA FIELD WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL
PRODUCE THE VERTICAL MOTION NEEDED TO GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN WEST TODAY...SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW SLIDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PRODUCE HIGHER POPS
AND SNOW AMOUNTS LATER TONIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
ALSO ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT...WITH AROUND 1 INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE
COLD/SATURATED SECTOR OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...WITH A NARROW AREA
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PORTRAY A DRY LAYER ALOFT WITH NEAR
SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLET REGIME.
OMEGA LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT
THINKING IS THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT RESULTING IN SNOW AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A COOL
DOWN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHORT TERM TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH THE
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BAND
FROM BOWBELLS THROUGH BISMARCK AND LINTON...FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT AROUND +2 TO +3 C AND A
POTENTIAL LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...OVERALL
QPF WEDNESDAY MORNING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BAND IS FORECAST
TO BE VERY LIGHT ON THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. THUS...WILL
HIGHLIGHT FOR NOW ONLY IN THE HWO. FURTHER EAST...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF
NEW ACCUMULATION.

THEREAFTER...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO
RESIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TWO ARCTIC HIGHS FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FEATURE ARE A BIT WIDE GIVEN THE WAVE STILL
WELL OFF SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. KISN MAY SEE SOME BRIEF SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY.

TONIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW  ARE POSSIBLE AT
KMOT/KBIS/KJMS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT KMOT/KBIS COULD SEE SOME
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THE TAF.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KBIS 091557
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
957 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

FOR THIS UPDATE...REMOVED ANY MENTION OF FREEZING DURING THE DAY
TODAY. MODELS ARE OVER FORECASTING PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AS
RADAR AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY
OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND UPSTREAM IN CANADA.
FURTHERMORE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HIGH-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS
DELAY THE WARM AIR ALOFT INTRUSION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...KEEPING
THE ATMOSPHERE BELOW FREEZING ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD
ELIMINATE THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND FAVOR SIMPLY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR TRANSITION BASED SOLELY ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

NO CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 12 UTC. THE 09 THROUGH 11 UTC RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS AND 06
UTC NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN
SOUTHWEST AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FAR NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT BAND OF ECHOES ON THE
REGIONAL RADAR CENTRAL THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WITH NO PRECIPITATION OBSERVED ON WEBCAMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SHORT TERM HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WEST
TODAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
OCCUR IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WITH A NARROW AREA OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
IN THE HWO/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW AND ADJUSTMENTS CAN
BE MADE LATER TODAY IF FORECAST CONDITIONS LOOK DIFFERENT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DETAIL A CLOUDY SKY FOR
ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A CLOUDY SKY
WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS A STATIONARY FRONT
SEPARATES WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST FROM COLDER AIR IN THE
EAST. A DISTINCT CONTRAST IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TODAY...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PACIFIC SHORTWAVES RIDING UP
AND OVER THE RIDGE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
INTERACT WITH THE STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
CENTRAL ALBERTA. AS IT APPROACHES NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND THEN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE
H850-H3 OMEGA FIELD WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL
PRODUCE THE VERTICAL MOTION NEEDED TO GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN WEST TODAY...SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW SLIDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PRODUCE HIGHER POPS
AND SNOW AMOUNTS LATER TONIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
ALSO ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT...WITH AROUND 1 INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE
COLD/SATURATED SECTOR OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...WITH A NARROW AREA
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PORTRAY A DRY LAYER ALOFT WITH NEAR
SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLET REGIME.
OMEGA LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT
THINKING IS THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT RESULTING IN SNOW AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A COOL
DOWN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHORT TERM TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH THE
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BAND
FROM BOWBELLS THROUGH BISMARCK AND LINTON...FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT AROUND +2 TO +3 C AND A
POTENTIAL LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...OVERALL
QPF WEDNESDAY MORNING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BAND IS FORECAST
TO BE VERY LIGHT ON THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. THUS...WILL
HIGHLIGHT FOR NOW ONLY IN THE HWO. FURTHER EAST...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF
NEW ACCUMULATION.

THEREAFTER...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO
RESIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TWO ARCTIC HIGHS FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FEATURE ARE A BIT WIDE GIVEN THE WAVE STILL
WELL OFF SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN -SN AT KISN/KDIK 16Z-17Z TUESDAY
UNTIL 00Z WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KMOT/KJMS
BY 18Z TODAY. -SN WILL NOT ARRIVE AT KBIS AND KMOT UNTIL 02Z-03Z
WEDNESDAY...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CIGS AT KMOT WILL LOWER TO IFR BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. -FZRA IS
POSSIBLE AT KMOT AND KBIS TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FOR ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KFGF 091535
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

FEW CHANGES MADE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WITH TWEAKS TO THE SKY
COVERAGE AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS. MAX TEMPS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE
TODAY WITH CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPS UP AND NEAR TODAY EXPECTED
HIGHS. TEMPS SHOULD BE RATHER STEADY WITH A DEGREE OR 2 INCREASE
TODAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE PLACEMENT OF WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS CLIPPER SNOW BAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

FAIRLY FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP...AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CWA...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CLEAR SKIES ARE ON THE EDGE OF
THE HIGHS WHILE THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN HAS SEEN CLOUD COVER MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN CWA HAVE FALLEN
DOWN TO JUST BELOW ZERO...AND WIND CHILLS ARE IN THE 15 TO 20
BELOW RANGE. THINK THAT THE WIND CHILLS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE
DECREASING WINDS AND INCOMING CLOUDS...ALLOWING A BRIEF DROP TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS MORNING IN ISOLATED SPOTS BUT NOTHING TOO
WIDESPREAD. WILL KEEP US HEADLINE FREE FOR NOW BUT MONITOR. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES EVEN WITH SOME SUN...WHILE THE WEST WILL BE IN A SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR MASS AND READINGS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE TEENS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT
ON BRINGING A VIGOROUS JET STREAK DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT INTO OUR AREA. THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL MOSTLY BE OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THE WESTERN CWA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK FOR A WHILE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME VARIATIONS ON HOW FAR EAST THE MODELS
BRING THE QPF...AND SOME ENSEMBLE RUNS KEEP EVERYTHING WEST OF US.
HOWEVER...THINK THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO KEEP OUR FAR
WESTERN TIER WITH LIKELY LIGHT SNOW FOR A PERIOD WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH CHANCE POPS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
A FAIRLY QUICK SHOT SO THINK THAT AMOUNTS WILL BE ONLY AN INCH OR
TWO EVEN WITH SOME OF THE MODELS SHOWING SOME HEALTHY QPF. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COLD OVER THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WITH PERIODIC WEAK SHORTWAVES OR JET STREAKS MOVING THROUGH WILL
CONTINUE. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONE OF THOSE MINOR FEATURES...SO
WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN AS THEY HAVE BEEN...WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT FROM
COLD IN THE NORTHEAST TO MORE MILD IN THE SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NW FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTING THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW WAVES CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA. A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...DROPPING LOWS INTO THE 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO RANGE. THE SFC
RIDGE WILL MOVE E FAIRLY RAPIDLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM...WITH
RETURN FLOW HELPING TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE MEASURABLE PCPN BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

CLOUD DECK OF AROUND 6000 FT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE TAF SITES...WITH KBJI THE ONLY ONE CLEAR THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT SOME
MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KDVL AFTER 00Z. THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND STAY VFR.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR



000
FXUS63 KFGF 091535
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

FEW CHANGES MADE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WITH TWEAKS TO THE SKY
COVERAGE AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS. MAX TEMPS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE
TODAY WITH CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPS UP AND NEAR TODAY EXPECTED
HIGHS. TEMPS SHOULD BE RATHER STEADY WITH A DEGREE OR 2 INCREASE
TODAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE PLACEMENT OF WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS CLIPPER SNOW BAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

FAIRLY FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP...AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CWA...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CLEAR SKIES ARE ON THE EDGE OF
THE HIGHS WHILE THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN HAS SEEN CLOUD COVER MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN CWA HAVE FALLEN
DOWN TO JUST BELOW ZERO...AND WIND CHILLS ARE IN THE 15 TO 20
BELOW RANGE. THINK THAT THE WIND CHILLS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE
DECREASING WINDS AND INCOMING CLOUDS...ALLOWING A BRIEF DROP TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS MORNING IN ISOLATED SPOTS BUT NOTHING TOO
WIDESPREAD. WILL KEEP US HEADLINE FREE FOR NOW BUT MONITOR. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES EVEN WITH SOME SUN...WHILE THE WEST WILL BE IN A SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR MASS AND READINGS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE TEENS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT
ON BRINGING A VIGOROUS JET STREAK DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT INTO OUR AREA. THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL MOSTLY BE OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THE WESTERN CWA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK FOR A WHILE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME VARIATIONS ON HOW FAR EAST THE MODELS
BRING THE QPF...AND SOME ENSEMBLE RUNS KEEP EVERYTHING WEST OF US.
HOWEVER...THINK THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO KEEP OUR FAR
WESTERN TIER WITH LIKELY LIGHT SNOW FOR A PERIOD WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH CHANCE POPS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
A FAIRLY QUICK SHOT SO THINK THAT AMOUNTS WILL BE ONLY AN INCH OR
TWO EVEN WITH SOME OF THE MODELS SHOWING SOME HEALTHY QPF. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COLD OVER THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WITH PERIODIC WEAK SHORTWAVES OR JET STREAKS MOVING THROUGH WILL
CONTINUE. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONE OF THOSE MINOR FEATURES...SO
WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN AS THEY HAVE BEEN...WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT FROM
COLD IN THE NORTHEAST TO MORE MILD IN THE SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NW FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTING THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW WAVES CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA. A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...DROPPING LOWS INTO THE 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO RANGE. THE SFC
RIDGE WILL MOVE E FAIRLY RAPIDLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM...WITH
RETURN FLOW HELPING TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE MEASURABLE PCPN BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

CLOUD DECK OF AROUND 6000 FT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE TAF SITES...WITH KBJI THE ONLY ONE CLEAR THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT SOME
MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KDVL AFTER 00Z. THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND STAY VFR.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 091535
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

FEW CHANGES MADE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WITH TWEAKS TO THE SKY
COVERAGE AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS. MAX TEMPS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE
TODAY WITH CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPS UP AND NEAR TODAY EXPECTED
HIGHS. TEMPS SHOULD BE RATHER STEADY WITH A DEGREE OR 2 INCREASE
TODAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE PLACEMENT OF WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS CLIPPER SNOW BAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

FAIRLY FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP...AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CWA...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CLEAR SKIES ARE ON THE EDGE OF
THE HIGHS WHILE THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN HAS SEEN CLOUD COVER MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN CWA HAVE FALLEN
DOWN TO JUST BELOW ZERO...AND WIND CHILLS ARE IN THE 15 TO 20
BELOW RANGE. THINK THAT THE WIND CHILLS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE
DECREASING WINDS AND INCOMING CLOUDS...ALLOWING A BRIEF DROP TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS MORNING IN ISOLATED SPOTS BUT NOTHING TOO
WIDESPREAD. WILL KEEP US HEADLINE FREE FOR NOW BUT MONITOR. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES EVEN WITH SOME SUN...WHILE THE WEST WILL BE IN A SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR MASS AND READINGS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE TEENS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT
ON BRINGING A VIGOROUS JET STREAK DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT INTO OUR AREA. THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL MOSTLY BE OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THE WESTERN CWA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK FOR A WHILE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME VARIATIONS ON HOW FAR EAST THE MODELS
BRING THE QPF...AND SOME ENSEMBLE RUNS KEEP EVERYTHING WEST OF US.
HOWEVER...THINK THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO KEEP OUR FAR
WESTERN TIER WITH LIKELY LIGHT SNOW FOR A PERIOD WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH CHANCE POPS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
A FAIRLY QUICK SHOT SO THINK THAT AMOUNTS WILL BE ONLY AN INCH OR
TWO EVEN WITH SOME OF THE MODELS SHOWING SOME HEALTHY QPF. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COLD OVER THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WITH PERIODIC WEAK SHORTWAVES OR JET STREAKS MOVING THROUGH WILL
CONTINUE. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONE OF THOSE MINOR FEATURES...SO
WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN AS THEY HAVE BEEN...WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT FROM
COLD IN THE NORTHEAST TO MORE MILD IN THE SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NW FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTING THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW WAVES CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA. A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...DROPPING LOWS INTO THE 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO RANGE. THE SFC
RIDGE WILL MOVE E FAIRLY RAPIDLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM...WITH
RETURN FLOW HELPING TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE MEASURABLE PCPN BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

CLOUD DECK OF AROUND 6000 FT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE TAF SITES...WITH KBJI THE ONLY ONE CLEAR THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT SOME
MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KDVL AFTER 00Z. THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND STAY VFR.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 091239
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
639 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER TO FIT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS.
CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...AND
LOOKING AT THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS IN THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

FAIRLY FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP...AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CWA...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CLEAR SKIES ARE ON THE EDGE OF
THE HIGHS WHILE THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN HAS SEEN CLOUD COVER MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN CWA HAVE FALLEN
DOWN TO JUST BELOW ZERO...AND WIND CHILLS ARE IN THE 15 TO 20
BELOW RANGE. THINK THAT THE WIND CHILLS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE
DECREASING WINDS AND INCOMING CLOUDS...ALLOWING A BRIEF DROP TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS MORNING IN ISOLATED SPOTS BUT NOTHING TOO
WIDESPREAD. WILL KEEP US HEADLINE FREE FOR NOW BUT MONITOR. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES EVEN WITH SOME SUN...WHILE THE WEST WILL BE IN A SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR MASS AND READINGS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE TEENS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT
ON BRINGING A VIGOROUS JET STREAK DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT INTO OUR AREA. THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL MOSTLY BE OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THE WESTERN CWA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK FOR A WHILE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME VARIATIONS ON HOW FAR EAST THE MODELS
BRING THE QPF...AND SOME ENSEMBLE RUNS KEEP EVERYTHING WEST OF US.
HOWEVER...THINK THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO KEEP OUR FAR
WESTERN TIER WITH LIKELY LIGHT SNOW FOR A PERIOD WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH CHANCE POPS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
A FAIRLY QUICK SHOT SO THINK THAT AMOUNTS WILL BE ONLY AN INCH OR
TWO EVEN WITH SOME OF THE MODELS SHOWING SOME HEALTHY QPF. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COLD OVER THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WITH PERIODIC WEAK SHORTWAVES OR JET STREAKS MOVING THROUGH WILL
CONTINUE. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONE OF THOSE MINOR FEATURES...SO
WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN AS THEY HAVE BEEN...WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT FROM
COLD IN THE NORTHEAST TO MORE MILD IN THE SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NW FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTING THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW WAVES CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA. A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...DROPPING LOWS INTO THE 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO RANGE. THE SFC
RIDGE WILL MOVE E FAIRLY RAPIDLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM...WITH
RETURN FLOW HELPING TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE MEASURABLE PCPN BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

CLOUD DECK OF AROUND 6000 FT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE TAF SITES...WITH KBJI THE ONLY ONE CLEAR THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT SOME
MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KDVL AFTER 00Z. THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND STAY VFR.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KBIS 091236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

NO CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 12 UTC. THE 09 THROUGH 11 UTC RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS AND 06
UTC NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN
SOUTHWEST AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FAR NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT BAND OF ECHOES ON THE
REGIONAL RADAR CENTRAL THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WITH NO PRECIPITATION OBSERVED ON WEBCAMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SHORT TERM HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WEST
TODAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
OCCUR IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WITH A NARROW AREA OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
IN THE HWO/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW AND ADJUSTMENTS CAN
BE MADE LATER TODAY IF FORECAST CONDITIONS LOOK DIFFERENT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DETAIL A CLOUDY SKY FOR
ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A CLOUDY SKY
WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS A STATIONARY FRONT
SEPARATES WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST FROM COLDER AIR IN THE
EAST. A DISTINCT CONTRAST IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TODAY...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PACIFIC SHORTWAVES RIDING UP
AND OVER THE RIDGE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
INTERACT WITH THE STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
CENTRAL ALBERTA. AS IT APPROACHES NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND THEN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE
H850-H3 OMEGA FIELD WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL
PRODUCE THE VERTICAL MOTION NEEDED TO GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN WEST TODAY...SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW SLIDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PRODUCE HIGHER POPS
AND SNOW AMOUNTS LATER TONIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
ALSO ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT...WITH AROUND 1 INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE
COLD/SATURATED SECTOR OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...WITH A NARROW AREA
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PORTRAY A DRY LAYER ALOFT WITH NEAR
SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLET REGIME.
OMEGA LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT
THINKING IS THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT RESULTING IN SNOW AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A COOL
DOWN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHORT TERM TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH THE
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BAND
FROM BOWBELLS THROUGH BISMARCK AND LINTON...FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT AROUND +2 TO +3 C AND A
POTENTIAL LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...OVERALL
QPF WEDNESDAY MORNING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BAND IS FORECAST
TO BE VERY LIGHT ON THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. THUS...WILL
HIGHLIGHT FOR NOW ONLY IN THE HWO. FURTHER EAST...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF
NEW ACCUMULATION.

THEREAFTER...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO
RESIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TWO ARCTIC HIGHS FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FEATURE ARE A BIT WIDE GIVEN THE WAVE STILL
WELL OFF SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN -SN AT KISN/KDIK 16Z-17Z TUESDAY
UNTIL 00Z WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KMOT/KJMS
BY 18Z TODAY. -SN WILL NOT ARRIVE AT KBIS AND KMOT UNTIL 02Z-03Z
WEDNESDAY...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CIGS AT KMOT WILL LOWER TO IFR BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. -FZRA IS
POSSIBLE AT KMOT AND KBIS TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FOR ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 091236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

NO CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 12 UTC. THE 09 THROUGH 11 UTC RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS AND 06
UTC NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN
SOUTHWEST AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FAR NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT BAND OF ECHOES ON THE
REGIONAL RADAR CENTRAL THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WITH NO PRECIPITATION OBSERVED ON WEBCAMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SHORT TERM HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WEST
TODAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
OCCUR IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WITH A NARROW AREA OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
IN THE HWO/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW AND ADJUSTMENTS CAN
BE MADE LATER TODAY IF FORECAST CONDITIONS LOOK DIFFERENT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DETAIL A CLOUDY SKY FOR
ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A CLOUDY SKY
WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS A STATIONARY FRONT
SEPARATES WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST FROM COLDER AIR IN THE
EAST. A DISTINCT CONTRAST IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TODAY...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PACIFIC SHORTWAVES RIDING UP
AND OVER THE RIDGE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
INTERACT WITH THE STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
CENTRAL ALBERTA. AS IT APPROACHES NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND THEN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE
H850-H3 OMEGA FIELD WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL
PRODUCE THE VERTICAL MOTION NEEDED TO GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN WEST TODAY...SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW SLIDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PRODUCE HIGHER POPS
AND SNOW AMOUNTS LATER TONIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
ALSO ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT...WITH AROUND 1 INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE
COLD/SATURATED SECTOR OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...WITH A NARROW AREA
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PORTRAY A DRY LAYER ALOFT WITH NEAR
SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLET REGIME.
OMEGA LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT
THINKING IS THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT RESULTING IN SNOW AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A COOL
DOWN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHORT TERM TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH THE
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BAND
FROM BOWBELLS THROUGH BISMARCK AND LINTON...FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT AROUND +2 TO +3 C AND A
POTENTIAL LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...OVERALL
QPF WEDNESDAY MORNING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BAND IS FORECAST
TO BE VERY LIGHT ON THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. THUS...WILL
HIGHLIGHT FOR NOW ONLY IN THE HWO. FURTHER EAST...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF
NEW ACCUMULATION.

THEREAFTER...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO
RESIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TWO ARCTIC HIGHS FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FEATURE ARE A BIT WIDE GIVEN THE WAVE STILL
WELL OFF SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN -SN AT KISN/KDIK 16Z-17Z TUESDAY
UNTIL 00Z WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KMOT/KJMS
BY 18Z TODAY. -SN WILL NOT ARRIVE AT KBIS AND KMOT UNTIL 02Z-03Z
WEDNESDAY...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CIGS AT KMOT WILL LOWER TO IFR BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. -FZRA IS
POSSIBLE AT KMOT AND KBIS TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FOR ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD



000
FXUS63 KBIS 091236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

NO CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 12 UTC. THE 09 THROUGH 11 UTC RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS AND 06
UTC NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN
SOUTHWEST AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FAR NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT BAND OF ECHOES ON THE
REGIONAL RADAR CENTRAL THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WITH NO PRECIPITATION OBSERVED ON WEBCAMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SHORT TERM HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WEST
TODAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
OCCUR IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WITH A NARROW AREA OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
IN THE HWO/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW AND ADJUSTMENTS CAN
BE MADE LATER TODAY IF FORECAST CONDITIONS LOOK DIFFERENT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DETAIL A CLOUDY SKY FOR
ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A CLOUDY SKY
WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS A STATIONARY FRONT
SEPARATES WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST FROM COLDER AIR IN THE
EAST. A DISTINCT CONTRAST IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TODAY...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PACIFIC SHORTWAVES RIDING UP
AND OVER THE RIDGE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
INTERACT WITH THE STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
CENTRAL ALBERTA. AS IT APPROACHES NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND THEN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE
H850-H3 OMEGA FIELD WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL
PRODUCE THE VERTICAL MOTION NEEDED TO GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN WEST TODAY...SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW SLIDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PRODUCE HIGHER POPS
AND SNOW AMOUNTS LATER TONIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
ALSO ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT...WITH AROUND 1 INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE
COLD/SATURATED SECTOR OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...WITH A NARROW AREA
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PORTRAY A DRY LAYER ALOFT WITH NEAR
SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLET REGIME.
OMEGA LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT
THINKING IS THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT RESULTING IN SNOW AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A COOL
DOWN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHORT TERM TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH THE
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BAND
FROM BOWBELLS THROUGH BISMARCK AND LINTON...FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT AROUND +2 TO +3 C AND A
POTENTIAL LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...OVERALL
QPF WEDNESDAY MORNING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BAND IS FORECAST
TO BE VERY LIGHT ON THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. THUS...WILL
HIGHLIGHT FOR NOW ONLY IN THE HWO. FURTHER EAST...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF
NEW ACCUMULATION.

THEREAFTER...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO
RESIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TWO ARCTIC HIGHS FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FEATURE ARE A BIT WIDE GIVEN THE WAVE STILL
WELL OFF SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN -SN AT KISN/KDIK 16Z-17Z TUESDAY
UNTIL 00Z WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KMOT/KJMS
BY 18Z TODAY. -SN WILL NOT ARRIVE AT KBIS AND KMOT UNTIL 02Z-03Z
WEDNESDAY...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CIGS AT KMOT WILL LOWER TO IFR BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. -FZRA IS
POSSIBLE AT KMOT AND KBIS TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FOR ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KFGF 090912
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
312 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

FAIRLY FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP...AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CWA...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CLEAR SKIES ARE ON THE EDGE OF
THE HIGHS WHILE THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN HAS SEEN CLOUD COVER MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN CWA HAVE FALLEN
DOWN TO JUST BELOW ZERO...AND WIND CHILLS ARE IN THE 15 TO 20
BELOW RANGE. THINK THAT THE WIND CHILLS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE
DECREASING WINDS AND INCOMING CLOUDS...ALLOWING A BRIEF DROP TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS MORNING IN ISOLATED SPOTS BUT NOTHING TOO
WIDESPREAD. WILL KEEP US HEADLINE FREE FOR NOW BUT MONITOR. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES EVEN WITH SOME SUN...WHILE THE WEST WILL BE IN A SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR MASS AND READINGS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE TEENS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT
ON BRINGING A VIGOROUS JET STREAK DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT INTO OUR AREA. THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL MOSTLY BE OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THE WESTERN CWA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK FOR A WHILE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME VARIATIONS ON HOW FAR EAST THE MODELS
BRING THE QPF...AND SOME ENSEMBLE RUNS KEEP EVERYTHING WEST OF US.
HOWEVER...THINK THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO KEEP OUR FAR
WESTERN TIER WITH LIKELY LIGHT SNOW FOR A PERIOD WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH CHANCE POPS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
A FAIRLY QUICK SHOT SO THINK THAT AMOUNTS WILL BE ONLY AN INCH OR
TWO EVEN WITH SOME OF THE MODELS SHOWING SOME HEALTHY QPF. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COLD OVER THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WITH PERIODIC WEAK SHORTWAVES OR JET STREAKS MOVING THROUGH WILL
CONTINUE. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONE OF THOSE MINOR FEATURES...SO
WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN AS THEY HAVE BEEN...WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT FROM
COLD IN THE NORTHEAST TO MORE MILD IN THE SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NW FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTING THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW WAVES CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA. A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...DROPPING LOWS INTO THE 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO RANGE. THE SFC
RIDGE WILL MOVE E FAIRLY RAPIDLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM...WITH
RETURN FLOW HELPING TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE MEASURABLE PCPN BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AND SKIES ARE CLEARING AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
BJI. MODELED RH VALUES INDICATE BJI SHOULD SEE CLEARING IN THE 09Z
TO 11Z TIMEFRAME. LOW VFR CIGS AROUND 5K FEET THEN MOVE DROP SOUTH
OUT OF MANITOBA IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...REACHING TVF AND GFK
AROUND 10Z AND FAR AROUND 12Z BEFORE SHIFTING WEST OF THE VALLEY.
APPEARS DVL WILL BE ONLY SITE THAT WILL HAVE CIGS FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE DAY. MODELS DO INDICATE CIGS DROPPING INTO MVFR RANGE. IF
THIS OCCURS IT SHOULD BE MID DAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH AND
WINDS ARE LIGHT. WINDS SHIFT EAST BY EVENING...AND THIS SHOULD
HELP CIGS REMAIN VFR AT DVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER




000
FXUS63 KBIS 090842
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
242 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SHORT TERM HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WEST
TODAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
OCCUR IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WITH A NARROW AREA OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
IN THE HWO/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW AND ADJUSTMENTS CAN
BE MADE LATER TODAY IF FORECAST CONDITIONS LOOK DIFFERENT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DETAIL A CLOUDY SKY FOR
ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A CLOUDY SKY
WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS A STATIONARY FRONT
SEPARATES WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST FROM COLDER AIR IN THE
EAST. A DISTINCT CONTRAST IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TODAY...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PACIFIC SHORTWAVES RIDING UP
AND OVER THE RIDGE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
INTERACT WITH THE STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
CENTRAL ALBERTA. AS IT APPROACHES NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND THEN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE
H850-H3 OMEGA FIELD WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL
PRODUCE THE VERTICAL MOTION NEEDED TO GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN WEST TODAY...SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW SLIDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PRODUCE HIGHER POPS
AND SNOW AMOUNTS LATER TONIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
ALSO ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT...WITH AROUND 1 INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE
COLD/SATURATED SECTOR OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...WITH A NARROW AREA
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PORTRAY A DRY LAYER ALOFT WITH NEAR
SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLET REGIME.
OMEGA LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT
THINKING IS THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT RESULTING IN SNOW AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A COOL
DOWN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHORT TERM TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH THE
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BAND
FROM BOWBELLS THROUGH BISMARCK AND LINTON...FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT AROUND +2 TO +3 C AND A
POTENTIAL LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...OVERALL
QPF WEDNESDAY MORNING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BAND IS FORECAST
TO BE VERY LIGHT ON THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. THUS...WILL
HIGHLIGHT FOR NOW ONLY IN THE HWO. FURTHER EAST...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF
NEW ACCUMULATION.

THEREAFTER...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO
RESIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TWO ARCTIC HIGHS FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FEATURE ARE A BIT WIDE GIVEN THE WAVE STILL
WELL OFF SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

CIGS WILL TREND FROM VFR TO MVFR AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT FROM 15Z-17Z
TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AT KISN/KDIK DURING THE SAME TIME
PERIOD ABOVE RESULTING IN MVFR-IFR VSBYS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
AT KBIS BY 19Z WITH LIGHT SNOW FORECAST INTO KMOT/KBIS BEGINNING
AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBIS/KMOT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. VSBYS WILL LOWER TO IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW AT
KMOT/KBIS/KJMS ESPECIALLY IN THE 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 090842
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
242 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SHORT TERM HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WEST
TODAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
OCCUR IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WITH A NARROW AREA OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
IN THE HWO/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW AND ADJUSTMENTS CAN
BE MADE LATER TODAY IF FORECAST CONDITIONS LOOK DIFFERENT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DETAIL A CLOUDY SKY FOR
ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A CLOUDY SKY
WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS A STATIONARY FRONT
SEPARATES WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST FROM COLDER AIR IN THE
EAST. A DISTINCT CONTRAST IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TODAY...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PACIFIC SHORTWAVES RIDING UP
AND OVER THE RIDGE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
INTERACT WITH THE STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
CENTRAL ALBERTA. AS IT APPROACHES NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND THEN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE
H850-H3 OMEGA FIELD WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL
PRODUCE THE VERTICAL MOTION NEEDED TO GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN WEST TODAY...SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW SLIDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PRODUCE HIGHER POPS
AND SNOW AMOUNTS LATER TONIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
ALSO ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT...WITH AROUND 1 INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE
COLD/SATURATED SECTOR OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...WITH A NARROW AREA
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PORTRAY A DRY LAYER ALOFT WITH NEAR
SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLET REGIME.
OMEGA LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT
THINKING IS THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT RESULTING IN SNOW AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A COOL
DOWN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHORT TERM TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH THE
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BAND
FROM BOWBELLS THROUGH BISMARCK AND LINTON...FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT AROUND +2 TO +3 C AND A
POTENTIAL LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...OVERALL
QPF WEDNESDAY MORNING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BAND IS FORECAST
TO BE VERY LIGHT ON THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. THUS...WILL
HIGHLIGHT FOR NOW ONLY IN THE HWO. FURTHER EAST...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF
NEW ACCUMULATION.

THEREAFTER...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO
RESIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TWO ARCTIC HIGHS FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FEATURE ARE A BIT WIDE GIVEN THE WAVE STILL
WELL OFF SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

CIGS WILL TREND FROM VFR TO MVFR AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT FROM 15Z-17Z
TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AT KISN/KDIK DURING THE SAME TIME
PERIOD ABOVE RESULTING IN MVFR-IFR VSBYS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
AT KBIS BY 19Z WITH LIGHT SNOW FORECAST INTO KMOT/KBIS BEGINNING
AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBIS/KMOT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. VSBYS WILL LOWER TO IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW AT
KMOT/KBIS/KJMS ESPECIALLY IN THE 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 090842
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
242 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SHORT TERM HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WEST
TODAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
OCCUR IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WITH A NARROW AREA OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
IN THE HWO/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW AND ADJUSTMENTS CAN
BE MADE LATER TODAY IF FORECAST CONDITIONS LOOK DIFFERENT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DETAIL A CLOUDY SKY FOR
ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A CLOUDY SKY
WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS A STATIONARY FRONT
SEPARATES WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST FROM COLDER AIR IN THE
EAST. A DISTINCT CONTRAST IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TODAY...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PACIFIC SHORTWAVES RIDING UP
AND OVER THE RIDGE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
INTERACT WITH THE STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
CENTRAL ALBERTA. AS IT APPROACHES NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND THEN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE
H850-H3 OMEGA FIELD WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL
PRODUCE THE VERTICAL MOTION NEEDED TO GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN WEST TODAY...SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW SLIDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PRODUCE HIGHER POPS
AND SNOW AMOUNTS LATER TONIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
ALSO ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT...WITH AROUND 1 INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE
COLD/SATURATED SECTOR OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...WITH A NARROW AREA
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PORTRAY A DRY LAYER ALOFT WITH NEAR
SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLET REGIME.
OMEGA LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT
THINKING IS THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT RESULTING IN SNOW AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A COOL
DOWN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHORT TERM TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH THE
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BAND
FROM BOWBELLS THROUGH BISMARCK AND LINTON...FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT AROUND +2 TO +3 C AND A
POTENTIAL LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...OVERALL
QPF WEDNESDAY MORNING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BAND IS FORECAST
TO BE VERY LIGHT ON THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. THUS...WILL
HIGHLIGHT FOR NOW ONLY IN THE HWO. FURTHER EAST...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF
NEW ACCUMULATION.

THEREAFTER...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO
RESIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TWO ARCTIC HIGHS FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FEATURE ARE A BIT WIDE GIVEN THE WAVE STILL
WELL OFF SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

CIGS WILL TREND FROM VFR TO MVFR AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT FROM 15Z-17Z
TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AT KISN/KDIK DURING THE SAME TIME
PERIOD ABOVE RESULTING IN MVFR-IFR VSBYS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
AT KBIS BY 19Z WITH LIGHT SNOW FORECAST INTO KMOT/KBIS BEGINNING
AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBIS/KMOT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. VSBYS WILL LOWER TO IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW AT
KMOT/KBIS/KJMS ESPECIALLY IN THE 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 090532
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1132 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE 3HR PRESSURE FALLS
ARE MAXIMIZED. VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN THIS AREA HAS RESULTED IN
CEILINGS UNIFORMLY AROUND 5000FT. NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM
SEEN TO FURTHER ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION AND GENERATE PRECIPITATION
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE BOWMAN AND BISMARCK RADAR SHOW A DISTINCT
LINE OF WEAKENING ECHOES IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND WILL
MAINTAIN THIS THOUGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD...QUICK SCAN IN THE BUFKIT ANALYSIS AND 00Z NAM/GFS
MODEL SOLUTIONS...SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN GENERATING LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE WEST MID MORNING TUESDAY...THEN SPREADING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
IN THE COLD SECTOR WITH A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN
THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL AWAIT POPS IN THE NEXT CYCLE
TO EVALUATE THIS THREAT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT IN THE NORTHEAST BASED ON THE LATEST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. ALSO DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL 12Z TUESDAY DUE TO LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. IN THE WEST A FLURRY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...BUT
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE...DO NOT THINK THE CURRENT 0.5 DEGREE RADAR RETURNS FROM
KMBX ARE MAKING THEIR WAY TO THE GROUND. WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY
AND ADJUSTING ACCORDINGLY SHOULD THIS BECOME LESS CERTAIN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 542 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. LATE AFTERNOON 0.5 DEGREE
RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOWS A NARROW LINE OF ECHOES MOVING EAST
AND EXTENDING FROM TIOGA SOUTH TO DICKINSON AND HETTINGER AT 2330
UTC. HOWEVER...WE BELIEVE THE ECHOES REPRESENT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
AND NOT SURFACE PRECIPITATION GIVEN SUB-20 DBZ RETURNS BASED ABOVE
5000 FT AGL. IN FACT...POPS WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY IN NORTHWEST ND
TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH 03 UTC GIVEN THE DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE TEENS F OVER MUCH OF WESTERN ND
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT OPERATIONAL HRRR SIMULATIONS ARE MORE
ROBUST WITH LIGHT SNOW IN WESTERN ND LATE TONIGHT THAN THE ESRL-
RUN EXPERIMENTAL HRRR...WHICH ALSO REPRESENTS UNCERTAINTY THAT IS
LIKELY RELATED TO THE DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK FORCING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
RIDGE RUNNING THROUGH THE WESTERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH LOW NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WHILE FAST NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER OUR AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER WILL
START THE EVENING WITH BREEZY WINDS DIMINISHING AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY RELAX OVER THE REGION. LATER THIS
EVENING WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT DEVELOPS RESULTING IN MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS...BRINGING A
LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW.

ON TUESDAY...STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE SET UP OVER THE
AREA WITH TEENS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
AROUND 40 OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. MODEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN IN BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA. MOST AREAS MAY SEE SOME SNOW...BUT CHANCES
SWITCH TOWARDS RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST AS WARMER AIR TRIES
TO WORK EASTERLY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS
THESE WAVES APPROACH BRIEF PERIODS OF MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FIRST SUCH WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CLEARLY
SHOW A WARM LAYER ALOFT...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS AS TO JUST
HOW WARM THIS LAYER IS AND HOW FAR EAST IT WILL PUSH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS BELOW FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE BEST FORCING AND WARM LAYER
ALOFT. AS PRECIPITATION PUSHES FURTHER EAST IT WILL ENCOUNTER
COOLER AIR BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE AND SHOULD TRANSITION OR
REMAIN ALL SNOW. EXACTLY WHERE THIS TRANSITION ZONE WILL SET UP
IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
LIKELY BE VERY STEEP AND A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
COULD MEAN VERY DIFFERENT PRECIPITATION TYPES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CIGS AROUND 5KFT TO BEGIN THIS TAF PERIOD...THEN TRENDING TO MVFR
IN THE WESTERN/NORTHERN TERMINALS OF KISN/KDIK/KMOT 15Z-17Z
TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AT KISN/KDIK DURING THE SAME TIME
PERIOD ABOVE RESULTING IN MVFR-IFR VSBYS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
AT KBIS BY 19Z WITH LIGHT SNOW FORECAST INTO KMOT/KBIS AROUND 00Z
WEDNESDAY. VSBYS WILL ALSO LOWER TO IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. KJMS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 090532
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1132 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE 3HR PRESSURE FALLS
ARE MAXIMIZED. VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN THIS AREA HAS RESULTED IN
CEILINGS UNIFORMLY AROUND 5000FT. NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM
SEEN TO FURTHER ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION AND GENERATE PRECIPITATION
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE BOWMAN AND BISMARCK RADAR SHOW A DISTINCT
LINE OF WEAKENING ECHOES IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND WILL
MAINTAIN THIS THOUGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD...QUICK SCAN IN THE BUFKIT ANALYSIS AND 00Z NAM/GFS
MODEL SOLUTIONS...SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN GENERATING LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE WEST MID MORNING TUESDAY...THEN SPREADING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
IN THE COLD SECTOR WITH A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN
THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL AWAIT POPS IN THE NEXT CYCLE
TO EVALUATE THIS THREAT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT IN THE NORTHEAST BASED ON THE LATEST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. ALSO DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL 12Z TUESDAY DUE TO LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. IN THE WEST A FLURRY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...BUT
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE...DO NOT THINK THE CURRENT 0.5 DEGREE RADAR RETURNS FROM
KMBX ARE MAKING THEIR WAY TO THE GROUND. WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY
AND ADJUSTING ACCORDINGLY SHOULD THIS BECOME LESS CERTAIN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 542 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. LATE AFTERNOON 0.5 DEGREE
RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOWS A NARROW LINE OF ECHOES MOVING EAST
AND EXTENDING FROM TIOGA SOUTH TO DICKINSON AND HETTINGER AT 2330
UTC. HOWEVER...WE BELIEVE THE ECHOES REPRESENT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
AND NOT SURFACE PRECIPITATION GIVEN SUB-20 DBZ RETURNS BASED ABOVE
5000 FT AGL. IN FACT...POPS WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY IN NORTHWEST ND
TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH 03 UTC GIVEN THE DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE TEENS F OVER MUCH OF WESTERN ND
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT OPERATIONAL HRRR SIMULATIONS ARE MORE
ROBUST WITH LIGHT SNOW IN WESTERN ND LATE TONIGHT THAN THE ESRL-
RUN EXPERIMENTAL HRRR...WHICH ALSO REPRESENTS UNCERTAINTY THAT IS
LIKELY RELATED TO THE DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK FORCING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
RIDGE RUNNING THROUGH THE WESTERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH LOW NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WHILE FAST NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER OUR AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER WILL
START THE EVENING WITH BREEZY WINDS DIMINISHING AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY RELAX OVER THE REGION. LATER THIS
EVENING WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT DEVELOPS RESULTING IN MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS...BRINGING A
LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW.

ON TUESDAY...STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE SET UP OVER THE
AREA WITH TEENS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
AROUND 40 OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. MODEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN IN BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA. MOST AREAS MAY SEE SOME SNOW...BUT CHANCES
SWITCH TOWARDS RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST AS WARMER AIR TRIES
TO WORK EASTERLY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS
THESE WAVES APPROACH BRIEF PERIODS OF MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FIRST SUCH WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CLEARLY
SHOW A WARM LAYER ALOFT...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS AS TO JUST
HOW WARM THIS LAYER IS AND HOW FAR EAST IT WILL PUSH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS BELOW FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE BEST FORCING AND WARM LAYER
ALOFT. AS PRECIPITATION PUSHES FURTHER EAST IT WILL ENCOUNTER
COOLER AIR BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE AND SHOULD TRANSITION OR
REMAIN ALL SNOW. EXACTLY WHERE THIS TRANSITION ZONE WILL SET UP
IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
LIKELY BE VERY STEEP AND A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
COULD MEAN VERY DIFFERENT PRECIPITATION TYPES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CIGS AROUND 5KFT TO BEGIN THIS TAF PERIOD...THEN TRENDING TO MVFR
IN THE WESTERN/NORTHERN TERMINALS OF KISN/KDIK/KMOT 15Z-17Z
TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AT KISN/KDIK DURING THE SAME TIME
PERIOD ABOVE RESULTING IN MVFR-IFR VSBYS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
AT KBIS BY 19Z WITH LIGHT SNOW FORECAST INTO KMOT/KBIS AROUND 00Z
WEDNESDAY. VSBYS WILL ALSO LOWER TO IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. KJMS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KFGF 090527
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1127 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NO CHANGES TO 10 PM UPDATE.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE LINGERING AROUND THE FOSSTON TO PARK RAPIDS
AREA...AND HAVE ADDED SCT SHSN TO THE REGION THROUGH 04Z. BEYOND
THAT...SKY CONTINUES TO BE MAIN CHALLENGE. NAM/RUC H850 RH FIELD
BRINGING IN SOME LOWER CLOUDS AFT 09Z TUE MORNING. THIS LOOKS
DECENT WITH CURRENT SKY GRIDS...AND WILL ADJUST AS NECESSARY
BEFORE SHIPPING 10 PM GRID SET. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
BOTTOMING OUT OVER WESTERN ZONES AND SHOULD SEE MUCH WARMER TEMPS
IN THE WEST. SUB ZERO TEMPS IN THE NORTHEAST CONTINGENT UPON LOW
CLOUD DECK CLEARING OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH
AFOREMENTIONED MODELS DO IN THE 05Z TO 07Z TIMEFRAME. EXPECT ABOUT
A 15 TO 20 DEG TEMP GRADIENT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS
CWA TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS HAVE BEGAN TO INCREASE AND VISIBILITIES IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY ARE IMPROVING. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW AND VERY
PATCHING DRIFTING/BLOWING SNOW THROUGH 8 PM AS THESE BANDS
DISSIPATE...HOWEVER VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE 1 TO 3 MILES AT WORST.

NEXT CHALLENGE WILL BE SKY TRENDS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...WHERE APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING WE
SEE AND CONFIDENT NOT HIGH ENOUGH...NOR DURATION LONG ENOUGH...TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR AS NECESSARY. NO
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES FOR THIS FCST UPDATE PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONVECTIVE SHSN/SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL COLD POOL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE VALLEY WITH BRIEF VSBY DROP BLO 1 MILE IN STRONGER
SNOW BANDS. FEEL SHSN AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AT SUNSET WHICH
SHOULD IMPROVE VSBY. WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING TO 00Z WITH SCHOOL
ENDING AND LATE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. NEXT FGF TEAM CAN EVALUATE FOR
ANY ADJUSTMENTS. OTHERWISE PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING CLEARING SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST.
WITH DIMINISHING WIND CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE HOW COLD WE GET. WITH
W-E BAROCLINIC ZONE WARMEST MINS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST. CLOUDS
HOLD LONGEST OVER THE FAR EAST BUT IF THEY DO CLEAR OUT COULD SEE
MINIMUMS APPROACHING 10 BELOW. WIND CHILLS APPROACH ADVISORY
LIMITS BUT CONSIDERING TIME OF YEAR AND MARGINAL VALUES WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY ADVISORY.

TUESDAY COLD BUT MORE TRANQUIL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NOSES IN. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO FAR NE
TO TEENS IN THE WEST.

REGION REMAINS IN NORTHERLY FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE NIGHT. ZONE OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
WILL LEAD TO BAND OF -SN DEVELOPING REACHING THE NW FA BY MORNING.
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR TEMPERATURES FALL WITH
THE NE AGAIN THE COLDEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

AS BAND OF F-GEN FORCING AIDED BY UPPER JET MAXIMA SHIFTS SSE
WILL SEE ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND SPREADING SE GENERALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS TIME FEEL 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE.

-SN WILL EXIT THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE NEXT. NW FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHC
-SN IN SE ND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT A 1040MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 5 TO 20 BELOW RANGE AND
HIGHS 15 TO 5 ABOVE...THE HIGHER TEMPS TO THE WEST AND LOWER VALUES
TO THE EAST. 500MB FLOW RELAXES SOME WITH A SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO
MOVE TROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING WARMER AIR AND A CHC OF SNOW SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH COLD START TO
THE WEEKEND THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 20S BY SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY 30
FOR MONDAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AND SKIES ARE CLEARING AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
BJI. MODELED RH VALUES INDICATE BJI SHOULD SEE CLEARING IN THE 09Z
TO 11Z TIMEFRAME. LOW VFR CIGS AROUND 5K FEET THEN MOVE DROP SOUTH
OUT OF MANITOBA IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...REACHING TVF AND GFK
AROUND 10Z AND FAR AROUND 12Z BEFORE SHIFTING WEST OF THE VALLEY.
APPEARS DVL WILL BE ONLY SITE THAT WILL HAVE CIGS FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE DAY. MODELS DO INDICATE CIGS DROPPING INTO MVFR RANGE. IF
THIS OCCURS IT SHOULD BE MID DAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH AND
WINDS ARE LIGHT. WINDS SHIFT EAST BY EVENING...AND THIS SHOULD
HELP CIGS REMAIN VFR AT DVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 090527
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1127 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NO CHANGES TO 10 PM UPDATE.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE LINGERING AROUND THE FOSSTON TO PARK RAPIDS
AREA...AND HAVE ADDED SCT SHSN TO THE REGION THROUGH 04Z. BEYOND
THAT...SKY CONTINUES TO BE MAIN CHALLENGE. NAM/RUC H850 RH FIELD
BRINGING IN SOME LOWER CLOUDS AFT 09Z TUE MORNING. THIS LOOKS
DECENT WITH CURRENT SKY GRIDS...AND WILL ADJUST AS NECESSARY
BEFORE SHIPPING 10 PM GRID SET. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
BOTTOMING OUT OVER WESTERN ZONES AND SHOULD SEE MUCH WARMER TEMPS
IN THE WEST. SUB ZERO TEMPS IN THE NORTHEAST CONTINGENT UPON LOW
CLOUD DECK CLEARING OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH
AFOREMENTIONED MODELS DO IN THE 05Z TO 07Z TIMEFRAME. EXPECT ABOUT
A 15 TO 20 DEG TEMP GRADIENT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS
CWA TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS HAVE BEGAN TO INCREASE AND VISIBILITIES IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY ARE IMPROVING. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW AND VERY
PATCHING DRIFTING/BLOWING SNOW THROUGH 8 PM AS THESE BANDS
DISSIPATE...HOWEVER VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE 1 TO 3 MILES AT WORST.

NEXT CHALLENGE WILL BE SKY TRENDS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...WHERE APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING WE
SEE AND CONFIDENT NOT HIGH ENOUGH...NOR DURATION LONG ENOUGH...TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR AS NECESSARY. NO
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES FOR THIS FCST UPDATE PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONVECTIVE SHSN/SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL COLD POOL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE VALLEY WITH BRIEF VSBY DROP BLO 1 MILE IN STRONGER
SNOW BANDS. FEEL SHSN AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AT SUNSET WHICH
SHOULD IMPROVE VSBY. WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING TO 00Z WITH SCHOOL
ENDING AND LATE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. NEXT FGF TEAM CAN EVALUATE FOR
ANY ADJUSTMENTS. OTHERWISE PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING CLEARING SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST.
WITH DIMINISHING WIND CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE HOW COLD WE GET. WITH
W-E BAROCLINIC ZONE WARMEST MINS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST. CLOUDS
HOLD LONGEST OVER THE FAR EAST BUT IF THEY DO CLEAR OUT COULD SEE
MINIMUMS APPROACHING 10 BELOW. WIND CHILLS APPROACH ADVISORY
LIMITS BUT CONSIDERING TIME OF YEAR AND MARGINAL VALUES WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY ADVISORY.

TUESDAY COLD BUT MORE TRANQUIL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NOSES IN. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO FAR NE
TO TEENS IN THE WEST.

REGION REMAINS IN NORTHERLY FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE NIGHT. ZONE OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
WILL LEAD TO BAND OF -SN DEVELOPING REACHING THE NW FA BY MORNING.
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR TEMPERATURES FALL WITH
THE NE AGAIN THE COLDEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

AS BAND OF F-GEN FORCING AIDED BY UPPER JET MAXIMA SHIFTS SSE
WILL SEE ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND SPREADING SE GENERALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS TIME FEEL 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE.

-SN WILL EXIT THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE NEXT. NW FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHC
-SN IN SE ND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT A 1040MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 5 TO 20 BELOW RANGE AND
HIGHS 15 TO 5 ABOVE...THE HIGHER TEMPS TO THE WEST AND LOWER VALUES
TO THE EAST. 500MB FLOW RELAXES SOME WITH A SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO
MOVE TROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING WARMER AIR AND A CHC OF SNOW SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH COLD START TO
THE WEEKEND THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 20S BY SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY 30
FOR MONDAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AND SKIES ARE CLEARING AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
BJI. MODELED RH VALUES INDICATE BJI SHOULD SEE CLEARING IN THE 09Z
TO 11Z TIMEFRAME. LOW VFR CIGS AROUND 5K FEET THEN MOVE DROP SOUTH
OUT OF MANITOBA IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...REACHING TVF AND GFK
AROUND 10Z AND FAR AROUND 12Z BEFORE SHIFTING WEST OF THE VALLEY.
APPEARS DVL WILL BE ONLY SITE THAT WILL HAVE CIGS FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE DAY. MODELS DO INDICATE CIGS DROPPING INTO MVFR RANGE. IF
THIS OCCURS IT SHOULD BE MID DAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH AND
WINDS ARE LIGHT. WINDS SHIFT EAST BY EVENING...AND THIS SHOULD
HELP CIGS REMAIN VFR AT DVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 090331
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
931 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE LINGERING AROUND THE FOSSTON TO PARK RAPIDS
AREA...AND HAVE ADDED SCT SHSN TO THE REGION THROUGH 04Z. BEYOND
THAT...SKY CONTINUES TO BE MAIN CHALLENGE. NAM/RUC H850 RH FIELD
BRINGING IN SOME LOWER CLOUDS AFT 09Z TUE MORNING. THIS LOOKS
DECENT WITH CURRENT SKY GRIDS...AND WILL ADJUST AS NECESSARY
BEFORE SHIPPING 10 PM GRID SET. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
BOTTOMING OUT OVER WESTERN ZONES AND SHOULD SEE MUCH WARMER TEMPS
IN THE WEST. SUB ZERO TEMPS IN THE NORTHEAST CONTINGENT UPON LOW
CLOUD DECK CLEARING OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH
AFOREMENTIONED MODELS DO IN THE 05Z TO 07Z TIMEFRAME. EXPECT ABOUT
A 15 TO 20 DEG TEMP GRADIENT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS
CWA TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS HAVE BEGAN TO INCREASE AND VISIBILITIES IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY ARE IMPROVING. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW AND VERY
PATCHING DRIFTING/BLOWING SNOW THROUGH 8 PM AS THESE BANDS
DISSIPATE...HOWEVER VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE 1 TO 3 MILES AT WORST.

NEXT CHALLENGE WILL BE SKY TRENDS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...WHERE APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING WE
SEE AND CONFIDENT NOT HIGH ENOUGH...NOR DURATION LONG ENOUGH...TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR AS NECESSARY. NO
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES FOR THIS FCST UPDATE PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONVECTIVE SHSN/SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL COLD POOL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE VALLEY WITH BRIEF VSBY DROP BLO 1 MILE IN STRONGER
SNOW BANDS. FEEL SHSN AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AT SUNSET WHICH
SHOULD IMPROVE VSBY. WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING TO 00Z WITH SCHOOL
ENDING AND LATE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. NEXT FGF TEAM CAN EVALUATE FOR
ANY ADJUSTMENTS. OTHERWISE PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING CLEARING SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST.
WITH DIMINISHING WIND CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE HOW COLD WE GET. WITH
W-E BAROCLINIC ZONE WARMEST MINS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST. CLOUDS
HOLD LONGEST OVER THE FAR EAST BUT IF THEY DO CLEAR OUT COULD SEE
MINIMUMS APPROACHING 10 BELOW. WIND CHILLS APPROACH ADVISORY
LIMITS BUT CONSIDERING TIME OF YEAR AND MARGINAL VALUES WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY ADVISORY.

TUESDAY COLD BUT MORE TRANQUIL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NOSES IN. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO FAR NE
TO TEENS IN THE WEST.

REGION REMAINS IN NORTHERLY FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE NIGHT. ZONE OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
WILL LEAD TO BAND OF -SN DEVELOPING REACHING THE NW FA BY MORNING.
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR TEMPERATURES FALL WITH
THE NE AGAIN THE COLDEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

AS BAND OF F-GEN FORCING AIDED BY UPPER JET MAXIMA SHIFTS SSE
WILL SEE ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND SPREADING SE GENERALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS TIME FEEL 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE.

-SN WILL EXIT THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE NEXT. NW FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHC
-SN IN SE ND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT A 1040MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 5 TO 20 BELOW RANGE AND
HIGHS 15 TO 5 ABOVE...THE HIGHER TEMPS TO THE WEST AND LOWER VALUES
TO THE EAST. 500MB FLOW RELAXES SOME WITH A SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO
MOVE TROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING WARMER AIR AND A CHC OF SNOW SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH COLD START TO
THE WEEKEND THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 20S BY SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY 30
FOR MONDAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...RESULTING IN IMPROVING VSBYS
GENERALLY IN THE MVFR RANGE. MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED BY MID
EVENING...WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
TVF/BJI BEING THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT AROUND MIDNIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDS AT ALL SITES BY 06Z TO 07Z TIMEFRAME.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 090331
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
931 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE LINGERING AROUND THE FOSSTON TO PARK RAPIDS
AREA...AND HAVE ADDED SCT SHSN TO THE REGION THROUGH 04Z. BEYOND
THAT...SKY CONTINUES TO BE MAIN CHALLENGE. NAM/RUC H850 RH FIELD
BRINGING IN SOME LOWER CLOUDS AFT 09Z TUE MORNING. THIS LOOKS
DECENT WITH CURRENT SKY GRIDS...AND WILL ADJUST AS NECESSARY
BEFORE SHIPPING 10 PM GRID SET. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
BOTTOMING OUT OVER WESTERN ZONES AND SHOULD SEE MUCH WARMER TEMPS
IN THE WEST. SUB ZERO TEMPS IN THE NORTHEAST CONTINGENT UPON LOW
CLOUD DECK CLEARING OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH
AFOREMENTIONED MODELS DO IN THE 05Z TO 07Z TIMEFRAME. EXPECT ABOUT
A 15 TO 20 DEG TEMP GRADIENT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS
CWA TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS HAVE BEGAN TO INCREASE AND VISIBILITIES IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY ARE IMPROVING. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW AND VERY
PATCHING DRIFTING/BLOWING SNOW THROUGH 8 PM AS THESE BANDS
DISSIPATE...HOWEVER VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE 1 TO 3 MILES AT WORST.

NEXT CHALLENGE WILL BE SKY TRENDS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...WHERE APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING WE
SEE AND CONFIDENT NOT HIGH ENOUGH...NOR DURATION LONG ENOUGH...TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR AS NECESSARY. NO
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES FOR THIS FCST UPDATE PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONVECTIVE SHSN/SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL COLD POOL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE VALLEY WITH BRIEF VSBY DROP BLO 1 MILE IN STRONGER
SNOW BANDS. FEEL SHSN AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AT SUNSET WHICH
SHOULD IMPROVE VSBY. WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING TO 00Z WITH SCHOOL
ENDING AND LATE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. NEXT FGF TEAM CAN EVALUATE FOR
ANY ADJUSTMENTS. OTHERWISE PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING CLEARING SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST.
WITH DIMINISHING WIND CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE HOW COLD WE GET. WITH
W-E BAROCLINIC ZONE WARMEST MINS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST. CLOUDS
HOLD LONGEST OVER THE FAR EAST BUT IF THEY DO CLEAR OUT COULD SEE
MINIMUMS APPROACHING 10 BELOW. WIND CHILLS APPROACH ADVISORY
LIMITS BUT CONSIDERING TIME OF YEAR AND MARGINAL VALUES WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY ADVISORY.

TUESDAY COLD BUT MORE TRANQUIL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NOSES IN. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO FAR NE
TO TEENS IN THE WEST.

REGION REMAINS IN NORTHERLY FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE NIGHT. ZONE OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
WILL LEAD TO BAND OF -SN DEVELOPING REACHING THE NW FA BY MORNING.
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR TEMPERATURES FALL WITH
THE NE AGAIN THE COLDEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

AS BAND OF F-GEN FORCING AIDED BY UPPER JET MAXIMA SHIFTS SSE
WILL SEE ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND SPREADING SE GENERALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS TIME FEEL 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE.

-SN WILL EXIT THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE NEXT. NW FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHC
-SN IN SE ND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT A 1040MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 5 TO 20 BELOW RANGE AND
HIGHS 15 TO 5 ABOVE...THE HIGHER TEMPS TO THE WEST AND LOWER VALUES
TO THE EAST. 500MB FLOW RELAXES SOME WITH A SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO
MOVE TROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING WARMER AIR AND A CHC OF SNOW SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH COLD START TO
THE WEEKEND THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 20S BY SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY 30
FOR MONDAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...RESULTING IN IMPROVING VSBYS
GENERALLY IN THE MVFR RANGE. MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED BY MID
EVENING...WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
TVF/BJI BEING THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT AROUND MIDNIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDS AT ALL SITES BY 06Z TO 07Z TIMEFRAME.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 090331
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
931 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE LINGERING AROUND THE FOSSTON TO PARK RAPIDS
AREA...AND HAVE ADDED SCT SHSN TO THE REGION THROUGH 04Z. BEYOND
THAT...SKY CONTINUES TO BE MAIN CHALLENGE. NAM/RUC H850 RH FIELD
BRINGING IN SOME LOWER CLOUDS AFT 09Z TUE MORNING. THIS LOOKS
DECENT WITH CURRENT SKY GRIDS...AND WILL ADJUST AS NECESSARY
BEFORE SHIPPING 10 PM GRID SET. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
BOTTOMING OUT OVER WESTERN ZONES AND SHOULD SEE MUCH WARMER TEMPS
IN THE WEST. SUB ZERO TEMPS IN THE NORTHEAST CONTINGENT UPON LOW
CLOUD DECK CLEARING OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH
AFOREMENTIONED MODELS DO IN THE 05Z TO 07Z TIMEFRAME. EXPECT ABOUT
A 15 TO 20 DEG TEMP GRADIENT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS
CWA TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS HAVE BEGAN TO INCREASE AND VISIBILITIES IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY ARE IMPROVING. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW AND VERY
PATCHING DRIFTING/BLOWING SNOW THROUGH 8 PM AS THESE BANDS
DISSIPATE...HOWEVER VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE 1 TO 3 MILES AT WORST.

NEXT CHALLENGE WILL BE SKY TRENDS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...WHERE APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING WE
SEE AND CONFIDENT NOT HIGH ENOUGH...NOR DURATION LONG ENOUGH...TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR AS NECESSARY. NO
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES FOR THIS FCST UPDATE PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONVECTIVE SHSN/SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL COLD POOL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE VALLEY WITH BRIEF VSBY DROP BLO 1 MILE IN STRONGER
SNOW BANDS. FEEL SHSN AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AT SUNSET WHICH
SHOULD IMPROVE VSBY. WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING TO 00Z WITH SCHOOL
ENDING AND LATE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. NEXT FGF TEAM CAN EVALUATE FOR
ANY ADJUSTMENTS. OTHERWISE PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING CLEARING SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST.
WITH DIMINISHING WIND CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE HOW COLD WE GET. WITH
W-E BAROCLINIC ZONE WARMEST MINS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST. CLOUDS
HOLD LONGEST OVER THE FAR EAST BUT IF THEY DO CLEAR OUT COULD SEE
MINIMUMS APPROACHING 10 BELOW. WIND CHILLS APPROACH ADVISORY
LIMITS BUT CONSIDERING TIME OF YEAR AND MARGINAL VALUES WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY ADVISORY.

TUESDAY COLD BUT MORE TRANQUIL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NOSES IN. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO FAR NE
TO TEENS IN THE WEST.

REGION REMAINS IN NORTHERLY FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE NIGHT. ZONE OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
WILL LEAD TO BAND OF -SN DEVELOPING REACHING THE NW FA BY MORNING.
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR TEMPERATURES FALL WITH
THE NE AGAIN THE COLDEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

AS BAND OF F-GEN FORCING AIDED BY UPPER JET MAXIMA SHIFTS SSE
WILL SEE ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND SPREADING SE GENERALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS TIME FEEL 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE.

-SN WILL EXIT THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE NEXT. NW FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHC
-SN IN SE ND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT A 1040MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 5 TO 20 BELOW RANGE AND
HIGHS 15 TO 5 ABOVE...THE HIGHER TEMPS TO THE WEST AND LOWER VALUES
TO THE EAST. 500MB FLOW RELAXES SOME WITH A SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO
MOVE TROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING WARMER AIR AND A CHC OF SNOW SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH COLD START TO
THE WEEKEND THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 20S BY SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY 30
FOR MONDAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...RESULTING IN IMPROVING VSBYS
GENERALLY IN THE MVFR RANGE. MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED BY MID
EVENING...WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
TVF/BJI BEING THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT AROUND MIDNIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDS AT ALL SITES BY 06Z TO 07Z TIMEFRAME.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER




000
FXUS63 KBIS 090330
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
930 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT IN THE NORTHEAST BASED ON THE LATEST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. ALSO DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL 12Z TUESDAY DUE TO LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. IN THE WEST A FLURRY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...BUT
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE...DO NOT THINK THE CURRENT 0.5 DEGREE RADAR RETURNS FROM
KMBX ARE MAKING THEIR WAY TO THE GROUND. WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY
AND ADJUSTING ACCORDINGLY SHOULD THIS BECOME LESS CERTAIN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 542 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. LATE AFTERNOON 0.5 DEGREE
RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOWS A NARROW LINE OF ECHOES MOVING EAST
AND EXTENDING FROM TIOGA SOUTH TO DICKINSON AND HETTINGER AT 2330
UTC. HOWEVER...WE BELIEVE THE ECHOES REPRESENT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
AND NOT SURFACE PRECIPITATION GIVEN SUB-20 DBZ RETURNS BASED ABOVE
5000 FT AGL. IN FACT...POPS WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY IN NORTHWEST ND
TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH 03 UTC GIVEN THE DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE TEENS F OVER MUCH OF WESTERN ND
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT OPERATIONAL HRRR SIMULATIONS ARE MORE
ROBUST WITH LIGHT SNOW IN WESTERN ND LATE TONIGHT THAN THE ESRL-
RUN EXPERIMENTAL HRRR...WHICH ALSO REPRESENTS UNCERTAINTY THAT IS
LIKELY RELATED TO THE DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK FORCING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
RIDGE RUNNING THROUGH THE WESTERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH LOW NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WHILE FAST NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER OUR AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER WILL
START THE EVENING WITH BREEZY WINDS DIMINISHING AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY RELAX OVER THE REGION. LATER THIS
EVENING WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT DEVELOPS RESULTING IN MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS...BRINGING A
LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW.

ON TUESDAY...STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE SET UP OVER THE
AREA WITH TEENS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
AROUND 40 OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. MODEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN IN BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA. MOST AREAS MAY SEE SOME SNOW...BUT CHANCES
SWITCH TOWARDS RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST AS WARMER AIR TRIES
TO WORK EASTERLY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS
THESE WAVES APPROACH BRIEF PERIODS OF MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FIRST SUCH WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CLEARLY
SHOW A WARM LAYER ALOFT...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS AS TO JUST
HOW WARM THIS LAYER IS AND HOW FAR EAST IT WILL PUSH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS BELOW FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE BEST FORCING AND WARM LAYER
ALOFT. AS PRECIPITATION PUSHES FURTHER EAST IT WILL ENCOUNTER
COOLER AIR BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE AND SHOULD TRANSITION OR
REMAIN ALL SNOW. EXACTLY WHERE THIS TRANSITION ZONE WILL SET UP
IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
LIKELY BE VERY STEEP AND A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
COULD MEAN VERY DIFFERENT PRECIPITATION TYPES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
CEILINGS WILL LOWER OVER WESTERN ND. ON TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR-TYPE CEILINGS IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
THE PROBABILITY OF THAT HIGHEST AT KISN AND KDIK AFTER 15 UTC.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CJS




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