000
FXUS61 KGYX 210648
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
248 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE NORTH...SPREADING SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND SPARK SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE CWA...AT LEAST FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY. WARM FNT IS LAYING ALONG THE S COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND ATTM...AND SLOWLY LIFTING NWD. AS IT REACHES THE SRN CWA
EARLY THIS AFTN...ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROMOTE LOW CLOUD AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WEAK LIFT IN THE LWR LVLS WILL ALSO MEAN PATCHY DZ IS
PSBL UNTIL DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES LATE IN THE AFTN AND EVE.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TODAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASING CLOUDS. THE
COOLEST LOCATIONS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND IN SRN NH WHERE
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW BEGIN EARLIEST. EARLY SUN IN THE NRN HALF
OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO FURTHER LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS AND
MORE FOG/DZ SE OF THE MTNS. SHRA WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE
COAST. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TNGT MILD...WITH LOWS
STAYING MAINLY IN THE 50S.

LOW PRES DEVELOPING S OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NWD...AND PASS
OFFSHORE AS A COLD FNT APPROACHES FROM THE W. SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD
OF THE FNT WILL ENCOURAGE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE E OF T.S.
ALBERTO TO SURGE TOWARDS THE REGION. PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE
LATE TNGT INTO TUE...NEARING 1.5 INCHES AT TIMES. THESE TYPES OF
VALUES ARE APPROACHING +2SD FOR THIS AREA...AND COUPLED WITH WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 10KFT...BRIEF PDS OF HEAVY RAFL WILL BE
PSBL. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOW TO LATCH ONTO HEAVIER QPF...BUT
THE 20/12Z ECMWF HAS ENHANCED PCPN TO THE N OF THE COASTAL LOW
PRES. IT ALSO SEEMED A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE ON LOW PRES
DEVELOPMENT...SO A COMPROMISE WAS USED. WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
COLD FNT APPROACHING FROM THE W...STILL FEEL THAT HEAVIER RAIN
WILL GET SQUEEZED OUT OF THE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE. THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE FEATURES WILL PRECLUDE ANY HYDRO ISSUES AS THINGS
STAND RIGHT NOW.

AHEAD OF THE COLD FNT...SOME DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEPER LAPSE
RATES COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER. MOST LIKELY
AREAS WOULD BE IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND NRN MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD SOUTHEAST FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
FROM WELL OUT INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO CONT TO POOL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
THICKEST CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCH FOG RIGHT ALONG THE
SHORELINE.

BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO OUR
REGION...ALLOWING FOR OUR POPS TO LOWER AS WELL. HOWEVER DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW BECOMES ALIGNED OUT OF THE SSE ONCE
AGAIN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM...MUGGY CONDS WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS AND JUST A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER DURING THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL HOLD TRUE FOR THU AND FRI. THEREAFTER...A STG COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE REGION BY SATURDAY. HAVE ADDED A CHC FOR A TSTM DURING
THIS PERIOD AS THE ATMOS BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WARM FNT WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY
TODAY. VFR CONDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR...AND EVENTUALLY IFR OR
LOWER CONDS AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MOVE ONSHORE IN SE FLOW. EXPECT
KCON AND ESPECIALLY KPSM TO DETERIORATE IN THE EARLY AFTN...WITH
KPWM/KAUG/KRKD FOLLOWING IN THE LATE AFTN/EVE. KLEB AND KHIE WILL
REMAIN VFR THE LONGEST...WITH MVFR CONDS PSBL LATE TNGT.

LONG TERM...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS AND FOG AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA THRESHOLDS
TODAY. LOW PRES PASSING SE OF THE WATERS TUE WILL BUILD SEAS ABOVE
5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE DAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
APPROACHING 25 KT IF LOW PRES CAN TRACK FURTHER INTO GULF OF
MAINE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNNY AND DRY START TO THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS
AND MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

LEGRO/JC

000
FXUS61 KGYX 210515 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
115 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH MONDAY SPREADING SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FCST TO KEEP IN LINE WITH
CURRENT OBS. WATCHING THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE S COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...AS THIS IS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE EXPECTED AFTN
CLOUDS/FOG/DZ FOR OUR AREA. CURRENT MOTION WOULD PLACE THE
WARM FNT ACROSS SRN NH IN THE EARLY AFTN.

PREV DISC...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT BUT EXPECT MOST OF
TONIGHT TO BE CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN SOUTHERN ZONES TOWARD
DAWN. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MOVES SLOWLY NORTH RESULTING IN
INCREASING CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME FOG ADVECTING IN OFF THE WATER LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND CLOUDS
THICKENING UP FASTER IN SOUTHERN ZONES EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE. HIGH TEMPS HERE WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE 60S. FARTHER
IN THE INTERIOR AND THE MOUNTAINS HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. MONDAY NIGHT SHOWERS AND FOG ARE FORECAST AS
THE WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WHICH DEVELOPS IN THE SAME TROPICAL AIR HAS T.S.ALBERTO
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT...
PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECASTS ARE AROUND 1.3-1.4 INCHES WHICH IS
CLOSE TO +2SD ABOVE NORMAL...INDICATING WE COULD HAVE SOME VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INTENSIFY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT.

THE FRONT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT BUT LOSES STEAM AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AGAIN WEDNESDAY TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WEAKENS UNDER A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS QUIET EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SATURDAY
WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY MONDAY WITH IFR LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY IN SOUTHERN AREAS. IFR
EXPECTED ALL LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

LONG TERM...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS AND FOG AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH MOSTLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOVE IN LATE MONDAY AND LAST INTO WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL HELP FUELS BECOME WET ONCE AGAIN. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

LEGRO

000
FXUS61 KBOX 210239
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1040 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE COAST...BRINGING AREAS OF SHOWERS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. IMPROVING
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION. NOTING AN AREA OF MUCH LOWER DEWPTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CT INTO SE NY STATE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WHILE DEWPTS
RISING THOUGH SLOWER THAN FORECAST ACFROSS E MA/RI. HIGHEST DEWPTS
AT 02Z WERE ACROSS SW NH/W MA INTO UPSTATE NY...ALSO RISING ACROSS
LONG ISLAND.

BIG QUESTION FOR THE NIGHT WILL BE WHEN THE DEWPTS FINALLY START TO
RISE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WORKS UP THE COAST. FEEL THIS WILL
FINALLY HAPPEN AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM S-N...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

THIS WILL DELAY ANY PROBLEMS WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE S
COAST UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WAS THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. ALSO NOTED MENTION OF INCREASING CLOUDS...WHICH ARE
STARTING TO WORK N FROM THE DELMARVA REGION AT 02Z. KEPT SIMILAR
TREND FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT AND INCORPORATED INTO
THE NEAR TERM TREND OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONFIDENCE WANES. SUCH DRY CONDITIONS ALONG THE S COAST WOULD LEND
TO REASON THAT FOG HAS A LOW PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPING. CROSSOVER
TEMP...THAT IS THE DWPT AT TIME OF MAX HEATING...IS LOW...AND MIN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN FALL INTO THE MID 50S...WELL ABOVE THE
CROSSOVER TEMP /THE THRESHOLD THAT IF CROSSED BY THE SFC TEMP WOULD
LEND GREATER PROBABILITY OF FOG FORMATION/.

BUT SHOULD WE SEE A STRONG NWD ADVECTION OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WITH INCREASING DWPTS EXCEEDING SEA-SFC TEMPS...THEN IT IS QUITE
PLAUSIBLE. DOWNSTREAM AND OFFSHORE FROM BUOY REPORTS...DEWPOINTS
AROUND THE MID 50S ARE BEING REPORTED...WITH LOW 60S ACROSS THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW.

WILL LEAN CONSERVATIVELY. BY MORNING WITH INCREASED ADVECTIVE FLOW
AND APPROACH OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES AND SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...FEEL THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF VSBYS FALLING
TO 1-2 MILES WITH MIST.

CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE S THRU THE EVNG...THICKENING AND
LOWERING INTO MORNING. AM NOT CONFIDENT SHOWERS WILL GET TO THE S
COAST UNTIL THE MID-MORNING INTO MIDDAY HRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE MOVED NORTH INTO OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...NO STRONG DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.5 INCHES INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL...IF CONVECTION OF STRONGER
VERTICAL FORCING DEVELOPS. TIMING OF ONSET FOR ANY PARTICULAR
LOCATION IS TRICKY. AT THIS POINT OPTED TO BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF RAIN DURING THE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE BRUNT OF THE
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
AREAS NORTH OF ROUTE 2 IN MA AND SOUTHERN NH MAY EVEN SEE THE
STEADIER RAINFALL HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING.

MOST OF THE 20/12Z GUIDANCE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. MOST OF THESE INDICES ARE MARGINAL...BUT
THINK THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CONSISTENT SIGNAL TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. TIMING AGAIN IS IFFY.

USED A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES AND ABUNDANCE OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE REMNANT
FROM TS ALBERTO AND NEIGHBORING AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE ERN
ATLANTIC MAKES FOR A CHAOTIC FCST. CONFIDENCE LIES THAT AN ELONGATED
SHRTWV TROF AXIS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY SWEEP OFFSHORE
ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WHILE PUSHING THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES NEWD AND OUT OF THE RGN. WHILE IT/S FELT THE
AXIS WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED ASCENT LENDING TO SFC CONVERGENCE AND
FRONTO- GENESIS...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEARS VERY WEAK DUE TO THE
WEAK NATURE OF THE TROF AXIS AND ATTENDANT BAROCLINIC ZONE. FEEL TUE
MAYBE FAIRLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED TO SCTD SHOWERS /BETTER CHCS TO
THE WEST/...WHEREAS WED WILL BE THE BETTER CHC FOR WET WX AS THE
TROF AXIS SWEEPS THRU THE RGN. ANTICIPATING AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE
FOR THE TUE EVNG PD /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTLINES AND OVER THE
WATERS/.

THURSDAY...

ENERGY ALONG THE SRN TIER OF AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV TROF AXIS WILL
CYCLONICALLY DEEPEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET
ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ANTICIPATE
A SECONDARY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES TO GRADUALLY LIFT WITH THE MEAN
FLOW THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OFFSHORE. BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE RGN
COUPLED WITH A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN LENDS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SCTD POP-UP SHOWERS. FEEL SOME OROGRAPHICAL AID IS GIVEN ALONG THE
EWD SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN AS E/SELY ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENHANCE IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING DEEPER SYS ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS. FLOW
WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED OUT OF THE SW ALOFT ADVECTING WARMER AIR
ACROSS THE RGN AND ACTING TO CAP THE LOW-LVLS AROUND H85. SO
UNCERTAINTY PREVAILS AS TO WHETHER LOW-LVL FORCING WILL OVERCOME THE
MID-LYR CAP. ANTICIPATE SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THUNDER.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

AS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE...WAA AND SUBSEQUENT
RIDGING AHEAD OF A DEEP SYS THRU THE NRN CONUS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
FCST DRY INTO SATURDAY. INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THE RIDGE ULTIMATELY IMPACTS THE EXPECTATION OF A SFC COLD
FRNT ACROSS THE RGN WITH SHOWERS AND PSBL THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE
LIES THAT SHOULD THE SFC COLD FRNT TRAVERSE THE RGN DURING THE SAT
AFTN PD...THEN LIKELY SFC-BASED INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH FRONTO-
GENETICAL FORCING WILL LIKELY YIELD THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND AWAY FROM THE MARINE ZONES/. WILL HINT AS THE
POSSIBILITY IN THE FCST FOR SAT AFTN. WHETHER THE SFC COLD FRNT
PUSHES OFFSHORE REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT MUCH OF THE FCST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT STRONGER HIGH PRES WILL BUILD S OUT OF CANADA AND PUSH
ENERGY OUT TO SEA.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...

AT FIRST GUESS IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRES RIDGING SEWD OUT OF CANADA
WILL KEEP THE FCST PD COOL AND DRY UNDER NLY FLOW. LOW-LVL PROFILES
WILL LIKELY BE WELL-MIXED LENDING TO DIURNAL CU AND MIX-DOWN OF BOTH
DRIER AIR AND FASTER MOMENTUM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...
INCREASING LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND STRATUS FROM THE S...THICKENING AND
LOWERING WITH TIME. INTO MON MORN...INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF MVFR-
IFR VSBY/CIGS /LIFR WILL BE PSBL AS FOG ALONG THE S SHORE IS
EXPECTED/. BANDS OF SHRA /WITH +SHRA AND PSBL ISOLATED TSRA/
SWEEPING N-S THRU THE TERMINALS...INCREASING IN AERIAL EXTENT
INTO LATE MON AND MON NGT. E/SE FLOW PREVAILS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF LOWER CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO MONDAY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF LOWER CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THOUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DURING THE DAY MIXED MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WITH
INTERMITTENT VFR PSBL. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR TUES NGT.
SHOWERS MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY WED. LGT SLY WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR TO LINGER THRU THURS...IMPROVING VFR
INTO FRI. COLD FRNT APPROACHING...INCREASING SLY FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELLS OF 3-6 FT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...DO NOT THINK THIS SWELL WILL
CHANGE MUCH DURING THAT TIME. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY DUE TO HAZARDOUS SEAS.

EXPECT THESE SWELLS TO ALSO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH COAST BEACHES.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INITIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A WEAK
AND DIFFUSE COLD FRNTL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AS TS
ALBERTO LIFTS NEWD JUST S AND E OF THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK. LIKELY
SWELL FROM THE STORM WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER
THE WATERS...BUT THE PROXIMITY AND THE DISTINCT NATURE OF TS
ALBERTO SHOULD KEEP THE WIND IMPACTS MINIMAL ALONG THE S/E OUTER
WATERS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. SCA FOR HAZ SEAS CONTINUING.

OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF BROAD AREAS OF LOW PRES ACROSS THE WATERS
FOR THE PERIOD SHALL INVOKE LIFT OF A VERY MOIST SUB-TROPICAL
AIRMASS. ANTICIPATE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS WITH EVNG
PERIODS COMPRISED OF AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE /TUE EVNG LOOKING LIKE
A SURE BET/. LIKELY VSBY IMPACTS WHILE THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE
S/SELY FOR THE WEEK...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS ENHANCING BY FRI AHEAD OF A
COLD FNTL DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE GRT LKS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL

000
FXUS61 KGYX 210129
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
929 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH MONDAY SPREADING SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

925 PM...WEST-EAST SURFACE RIDGE WAS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES TO THE
FORECAST AREA AT MOMENT. EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TO WORK INTO
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND GRIDS BASED ON MESONET...OTHERWISE NIL OTHER
CHANGES.


PREV DISC...
630 PM...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO 1ST PERIOD TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS BASED ON MESONET.

PREV DISC...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT BUT EXPECT MOST OF
TONIGHT TO BE CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN SOUTHERN ZONES TOWARD
DAWN. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MOVES SLOWLY NORTH RESULTING IN
INCREASING CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME FOG ADVECTING IN OFF THE WATER LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND CLOUDS
THICKENING UP FASTER IN SOUTHERN ZONES EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE. HIGH TEMPS HERE WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE 60S. FARTHER
IN THE INTERIOR AND THE MOUNTAINS HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. MONDAY NIGHT SHOWERS AND FOG ARE FORECAST AS
THE WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WHICH DEVELOPS IN THE SAME TROPICAL AIR HAS T.S.ALBERTO
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT...
PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECASTS ARE AROUND 1.3-1.4 INCHES WHICH IS
CLOSE TO +2SD ABOVE NORMAL...INDICATING WE COULD HAVE SOME VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INTENSIFY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT.

THE FRONT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT BUT LOSES STEAM AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AGAIN WEDNESDAY TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WEAKENS UNDER A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS QUIET EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SATURDAY
WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY MONDAY WITH IFR LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY IN SOUTHERN AREAS. IFR
EXPECTED ALL LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

LONG TERM...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS AND FOG AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH MOSTLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOVE IN LATE MONDAY AND LAST INTO WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL HELP FUELS BECOME WET ONCE AGAIN. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES

000
FXUS61 KBOX 202325
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
725 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

A LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE COAST...BRINGING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

UPDATING THE NEAR-TERM TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST TRENDS. NOTABLY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE S SHORE HAVE BEEN DRY...WITH DWPTS OVER
NANTUCKET GETTING AS LOW AS 35 DEGREES. WITH THAT BEING SAID...
THE EXPECTATION FOR THIS EVNG IS FOR E/SELY FLOW TO ADVECT
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE N AND W ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
MORNING HRS...AND CONSEQUENTIALLY IMPACTS UPON VSYBS DUE TO FOG.

CONFIDENCE WANES. SUCH DRY CONDITIONS ALONG THE S WOULD LEND TO
REASON THAT FOG HAS A LOW PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPING. CROSSOVER
TEMP...THAT IS THE DWPT AT TIME OF MAX HEATING...IS LOW...AND MIN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN FALL INTO THE MID 50S...WELL ABOVE THE
CROSSOVER TEMP /THE THRESHOLD THAT IF CROSSED BY THE SFC TEMP
WOULD LEND GREATER PROBABILITY OF FOG FORMATION/.

BUT SHOULD WE SEE A STRONG NWD ADVECTION OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WITH INCREASING DWPTS EXCEEDING SEA-SFC TEMPS...THEN IT IS QUITE
PLAUSIBLE. DOWNSTREAM AND OFFSHORE FROM BUOY REPORTS...DEWPOINTS
AROUND THE MID 50S ARE BEING REPORTED...WITH LOW 60S ACROSS THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW.

WILL LEAN CONSERVATIVELY. BY MORNING WITH INCREASED ADVECTIVE FLOW
AND APPROACH OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES AND SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...FEEL THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF VSBYS FALLING
TO 1-2 MILES WITH MIST.

CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE S THRU THE EVNG...THICKENING AND
LOWERING INTO MORNING. AM NOT CONFIDENT SHOWERS WILL GET TO THE S
COAST UNTIL THE MID-MORNING INTO MIDDAY HRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

LOTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE MOVED NORTH INTO OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...NO STRONG DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.5 INCHES INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL...IF CONVECTION OF STRONGER
VERTICAL FORCING DEVELOPS. TIMING OF ONSET FOR ANY PARTICULAR
LOCATION IS TRICKY. AT THIS POINT OPTED TO BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF RAIN DURING THE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE BRUNT OF THE
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
AREAS NORTH OF ROUTE 2 IN MA AND SOUTHERN NH MAY EVEN SEE THE
STEADIER RAINFALL HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING.

MOST OF THE 20/12Z GUIDANCE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. MOST OF THESE INDICES ARE MARGINAL...BUT
THINK THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CONSISTENT SIGNAL TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. TIMING AGAIN IS IFFY.

USED A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES AND ABUNDANCE OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE REMNANT
FROM TS ALBERTO AND NEIGHBORING AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE ERN ATLANTIC
MAKES FOR A CHAOTIC FCST. CONFIDENCE LIES THAT AN ELONGATED SHRTWV
TROF AXIS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY SWEEP OFFSHORE ACTING
AS A FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WHILE PUSHING THE BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRES NEWD AND OUT OF THE RGN. WHILE IT/S FELT THE AXIS WILL
PROVIDE ENHANCED ASCENT LENDING TO SFC CONVERGENCE AND FRONTO-
GENESIS...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEARS VERY WEAK DUE TO THE WEAK
NATURE OF THE TROF AXIS AND ATTENDANT BAROCLINIC ZONE. FEEL TUE
MAYBE FAIRLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED TO SCTD SHOWERS /BETTER CHCS TO
THE WEST/...WHEREAS WED WILL BE THE BETTER CHC FOR WET WX AS THE
TROF AXIS SWEEPS THRU THE RGN. ANTICIPATING AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE
FOR THE TUE EVNG PD /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTLINES AND OVER THE
WATERS/.

THURSDAY...

ENERGY ALONG THE SRN TIER OF AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV TROF AXIS WILL
CYCLONICALLY DEEPEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET
ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ANTICIPATE
A SECONDARY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES TO GRADUALLY LIFT WITH THE MEAN
FLOW THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OFFSHORE. BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE RGN
COUPLED WITH A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN LENDS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SCTD POP-UP SHOWERS. FEEL SOME OROGRAPHICAL AID IS GIVEN ALONG THE
EWD SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN AS E/SELY ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENHANCE IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING DEEPER SYS ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS. FLOW
WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED OUT OF THE SW ALOFT ADVECTING WARMER AIR
ACROSS THE RGN AND ACTING TO CAP THE LOW-LVLS AROUND H85. SO
UNCERTAINTY PREVAILS AS TO WHETHER LOW-LVL FORCING WILL OVERCOME THE
MID-LYR CAP. ANTICIPATE SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THUNDER.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

AS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE...WAA AND SUBSEQUENT
RIDGING AHEAD OF A DEEP SYS THRU THE NRN CONUS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
FCST DRY INTO SATURDAY. INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THE RIDGE ULTIMATELY IMPACTS THE EXPECTATION OF A SFC COLD
FRNT ACROSS THE RGN WITH SHOWERS AND PSBL THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE
LIES THAT SHOULD THE SFC COLD FRNT TRAVERSE THE RGN DURING THE SAT
AFTN PD...THEN LIKELY SFC-BASED INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH FRONTO-
GENETICAL FORCING WILL LIKELY YIELD THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND AWAY FROM THE MARINE ZONES/. WILL HINT AS THE
POSSIBILITY IN THE FCST FOR SAT AFTN. WHETHER THE SFC COLD FRNT
PUSHES OFFSHORE REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT MUCH OF THE FCST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT STRONGER HIGH PRES WILL BUILD S OUT OF CANADA AND PUSH
ENERGY OUT TO SEA.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...

AT FIRST GUESS IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRES RIDGING SEWD OUT OF CANADA
WILL KEEP THE FCST PD COOL AND DRY UNDER NLY FLOW. LOW-LVL PROFILES
WILL LIKELY BE WELL-MIXED LENDING TO DIURNAL CU AND MIX-DOWN OF BOTH
DRIER AIR AND FASTER MOMENTUM.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...
INCREASING LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND STRATUS FROM THE S...THICKENING AND
LOWERING WITH TIME. INTO MON MORN...INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF MVFR-
IFR VSBY/CIGS /LIFR WILL BE PSBL AS FOG ALONG THE S SHORE IS
EXPECTED/. BANDS OF SHRA /WITH +SHRA AND PSBL ISOLATED TSRA/
SWEEPING N-S THRU THE TERMINALS...INCREASING IN AERIAL EXTENT
INTO LATE MON AND MON NGT. E/SE FLOW PREVAILS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF LOWER CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO MONDAY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF LOWER CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THOUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DURING THE DAY MIXED MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WITH
INTERMITTENT VFR PSBL. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR TUES NGT.
SHOWERS MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY WED. LGT SLY WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR TO LINGER THRU THURS...IMPROVING VFR
INTO FRI. COLD FRNT APPROACHING...INCREASING SLY FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.

3-5 FT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELLS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...DO NOT THINK THIS SWELL
WILL CHANGE MUCH DURING THAT TIME. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO HAZARDOUS SEAS.

EXPECT THESE SWELLS TO ALSO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH COAST BEACHES.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INITIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A WEAK
AND DIFFUSE COLD FRNTL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AS TS
ALBERTO LIFTS NEWD JUST S AND E OF THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK. LIKELY
SWELL FROM THE STORM WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER
THE WATERS...BUT THE PROXIMITY AND THE DISTINCT NATURE OF TS
ALBERTO SHOULD KEEP THE WIND IMPACTS MINIMAL ALONG THE S/E OUTER
WATERS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. SCA FOR HAZ SEAS CONTINUING.

OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF BROAD AREAS OF LOW PRES ACROSS THE WATERS
FOR THE PERIOD SHALL INVOKE LIFT OF A VERY MOIST SUB-TROPICAL
AIRMASS. ANTICIPATE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS WITH EVNG
PERIODS COMPRISED OF AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE /TUE EVNG LOOKING LIKE
A SURE BET/. LIKELY VSBY IMPACTS WHILE THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE
S/SELY FOR THE WEEK...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS ENHANCING BY FRI AHEAD OF A
COLD FNTL DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE GRT LKS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...BELK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL

000
FXUS61 KGYX 202232
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
632 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH MONDAY SPREADING SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND SPARK SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

630 PM...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO 1ST PERIOD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
BASED ON MESONET.

PREV DISC...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT BUT EXPECT MOST OF
TONIGHT TO BE CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN SOUTHERN ZONES TOWARD
DAWN. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MOVES SLOWLY NORTH RESULTING IN
INCREASING CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME FOG ADVECTING IN OFF THE WATER LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND CLOUDS
THICKENING UP FASTER IN SOUTHERN ZONES EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE. HIGH TEMPS HERE WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE 60S. FARTHER
IN THE INTERIOR AND THE MOUNTAINS HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. MONDAY NIGHT SHOWERS AND FOG ARE FORECAST AS
THE WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WHICH DEVELOPS IN THE SAME TROPICAL AIR HAS T.S.ALBERTO
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT...
PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECASTS ARE AROUND 1.3-1.4 INCHES WHICH IS
CLOSE TO +2SD ABOVE NORMAL...INDICATING WE COULD HAVE SOME VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INTENSIFY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT.

THE FRONT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT BUT LOSES STEAM AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AGAIN WEDNESDAY TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WEAKENS UNDER A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS QUIET EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SATURDAY
WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY MONDAY WITH IFR LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY IN SOUTHERN AREAS. IFR
EXPECTED ALL LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

LONG TERM...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS AND FOG AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH MOSTLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOVE IN LATE MONDAY AND LAST INTO WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL HELP FUELS BECOME WET ONCE AGAIN. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES

000
FXUS61 KBOX 201931
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
331 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE COAST...BRINGING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
2 PM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVED
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS. MOS GUIDANCE DEW POINTS ARE TOO
LOW...FOUND VALUES MUCH CLOSER TO REALITY IN THE RAW MODEL OUTPUT.

TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
MOVE OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A BROAD
MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW TO STEER A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES OUR WAY LATE TONIGHT.

MAIN IMPACT TONIGHT WILL BE A INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE IDEA OF STRATUS AND
FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST TONIGHT. AM THINKING THESE LOWER CLOUDS
AND FOG...AS WELL AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION...WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CUTOFF LOW ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST DOES NOT ARGUE FOR A FASTER TIMING.

USED A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE MOVED NORTH INTO OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...NO STRONG DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.5 INCHES INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL...IF CONVECTION OF STRONGER
VERTICAL FORCING DEVELOPS. TIMING OF ONSET FOR ANY PARTICULAR
LOCATION IS TRICKY. AT THIS POINT OPTED TO BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF RAIN DURING THE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE BRUNT OF THE
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
AREAS NORTH OF ROUTE 2 IN MA AND SOUTHERN NH MAY EVEN SEE THE
STEADIER RAINFALL HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING.

MOST OF THE 20/12Z GUIDANCE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. MOST OF THESE INDICES ARE MARGINAL...BUT
THINK THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CONSISTENT SIGNAL TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. TIMING AGAIN IS IFFY.

USED A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES AND ABUNDANCE OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE REMNANT
FROM TS ALBERTO AND NEIGHBORING AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE ERN ATLANTIC
MAKES FOR A CHAOTIC FCST. CONFIDENCE LIES THAT AN ELONGATED SHRTWV
TROF AXIS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY SWEEP OFFSHORE ACTING
AS A FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WHILE PUSHING THE BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRES NEWD AND OUT OF THE RGN. WHILE IT/S FELT THE AXIS WILL
PROVIDE ENHANCED ASCENT LENDING TO SFC CONVERGENCE AND FRONTO-
GENESIS...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEARS VERY WEAK DUE TO THE WEAK
NATURE OF THE TROF AXIS AND ATTENDANT BAROCLINIC ZONE. FEEL TUE
MAYBE FAIRLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED TO SCTD SHOWERS /BETTER CHCS TO
THE WEST/...WHEREAS WED WILL BE THE BETTER CHC FOR WET WX AS THE
TROF AXIS SWEEPS THRU THE RGN. ANTICIPATING AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE
FOR THE TUE EVNG PD /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTLINES AND OVER THE
WATERS/.

THURSDAY...

ENERGY ALONG THE SRN TIER OF AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV TROF AXIS WILL
CYCLONICALLY DEEPEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET
ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ANTICIPATE
A SECONDARY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES TO GRADUALLY LIFT WITH THE MEAN
FLOW THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OFFSHORE. BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE RGN
COUPLED WITH A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN LENDS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SCTD POP-UP SHOWERS. FEEL SOME OROGRAPHICAL AID IS GIVEN ALONG THE
EWD SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN AS E/SELY ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENHANCE IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING DEEPER SYS ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS. FLOW
WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED OUT OF THE SW ALOFT ADVECTING WARMER AIR
ACROSS THE RGN AND ACTING TO CAP THE LOW-LVLS AROUND H85. SO
UNCERTAINTY PREVAILS AS TO WHETHER LOW-LVL FORCING WILL OVERCOME THE
MID-LYR CAP. ANTICIPATE SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THUNDER.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

AS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE...WAA AND SUBSEQUENT
RIDGING AHEAD OF A DEEP SYS THRU THE NRN CONUS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
FCST DRY INTO SATURDAY. INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THE RIDGE ULTIMATELY IMPACTS THE EXPECTATION OF A SFC COLD
FRNT ACROSS THE RGN WITH SHOWERS AND PSBL THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE
LIES THAT SHOULD THE SFC COLD FRNT TRAVERSE THE RGN DURING THE SAT
AFTN PD...THEN LIKELY SFC-BASED INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH FRONTO-
GENETICAL FORCING WILL LIKELY YIELD THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND AWAY FROM THE MARINE ZONES/. WILL HINT AS THE
POSSIBILITY IN THE FCST FOR SAT AFTN. WHETHER THE SFC COLD FRNT
PUSHES OFFSHORE REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT MUCH OF THE FCST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT STRONGER HIGH PRES WILL BUILD S OUT OF CANADA AND PUSH
ENERGY OUT TO SEA.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...

AT FIRST GUESS IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRES RIDGING SEWD OUT OF CANADA
WILL KEEP THE FCST PD COOL AND DRY UNDER NLY FLOW. LOW-LVL PROFILES
WILL LIKELY BE WELL-MIXED LENDING TO DIURNAL CU AND MIX-DOWN OF BOTH
DRIER AIR AND FASTER MOMENTUM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN STRATUS AND FOG
IMPACT THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING THIS AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR AS IT MOVES NORTH. COULD ALSO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS BRING
MVFR CONDITIONS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR-IFR ACROSS
THE REGION AS SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO MOVE N. LOWEST
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WITH LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
MAINLY VFR-MVFR ACROSS SW NH/NW MA. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG AND SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF LOWER CLOUDS AND PRECIP MONDAY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF LOWER CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THOUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DURING THE DAY MIXED MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WITH
INTERMITTENT VFR PSBL. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR TUES NGT.
SHOWERS MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY WED. LGT SLY WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR TO LINGER THRU THURS...IMPROVING VFR
INTO FRI. COLD FRNT APPROACHING...INCREASING SLY FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.

3-5 FT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELLS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...DO NOT THINK THIS SWELL
WILL CHANGE MUCH DURING THAT TIME. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO HAZARDOUS SEAS.

EXPECT THESE SWELLS TO ALSO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH COAST BEACHES.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INITIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A WEAK
AND DIFFUSE COLD FRNTL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AS TS
ALBERTO LIFTS NEWD JUST S AND E OF THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK. LIKELY
SWELL FROM THE STORM WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER
THE WATERS...BUT THE PROXIMITY AND THE DISTINCT NATURE OF TS
ALBERTO SHOULD KEEP THE WIND IMPACTS MINIMAL ALONG THE S/E OUTER
WATERS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. SCA FOR HAZ SEAS CONTINUING.

OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF BROAD AREAS OF LOW PRES ACROSS THE WATERS
FOR THE PERIOD SHALL INVOKE LIFT OF A VERY MOIST SUB-TROPICAL
AIRMASS. ANTICIPATE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS WITH EVNG
PERIODS COMPRISED OF AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE /TUE EVNG LOOKING LIKE
A SURE BET/. LIKELY VSBY IMPACTS WHILE THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE
S/SELY FOR THE WEEK...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS ENHANCING BY FRI AHEAD OF A
COLD FNTL DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE GRT LKS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL

000
FXUS61 KGYX 201917
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
317 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH MONDAY SPREADING SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND SPARK SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT BUT EXPECT MOST OF TONIGHT TO
BE CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN SOUTHERN ZONES TOWARD DAWN.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MOVES SLOWLY NORTH RESULTING IN
INCREASING CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME FOG ADVECTING IN OFF THE WATER LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND CLOUDS
THICKENING UP FASTER IN SOUTHERN ZONES EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE. HIGH TEMPS HERE WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE 60S. FARTHER
IN THE INTERIOR AND THE MOUNTAINS HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. MONDAY NIGHT SHOWERS AND FOG ARE FORECAST AS
THE WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WHICH DEVELOPS IN THE SAME TROPICAL AIR HAS T.S.ALBERTO
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT...
PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECASTS ARE AROUND 1.3-1.4 INCHES WHICH IS
CLOSE TO +2SD ABOVE NORMAL...INDICATING WE COULD HAVE SOME VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INTENSIFY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT.

THE FRONT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT BUT LOSES STEAM AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AGAIN WEDNESDAY TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WEAKENS UNDER A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS QUIET EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SATURDAY
WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY MONDAY WITH IFR LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY IN SOUTHERN AREAS. IFR
EXPECTED ALL LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

LONG TERM...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS AND FOG AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH MOSTLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOVE IN LATE MONDAY AND LAST INTO WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL HELP FUELS BECOME WET ONCE AGAIN. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

TFH/SH

000
FXUS61 KBOX 201901
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
301 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING US ONE MORE BEAUTIFUL DAY TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE COAST...BRINGING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

2 PM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVED
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS. MOS GUIDANCE DEW POINTS ARE TOO
LOW...FOUND VALUES MUCH CLOSER TO REALITY IN THE RAW MODEL OUTPUT.

TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
MOVE OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A BROAD
MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW TO STEER A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES OUR WAY LATE TONIGHT.

MAIN IMPACT TONIGHT WILL BE A INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE IDEA OF STRATUS AND
FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST TONIGHT. AM THINKING THESE LOWER CLOUDS
AND FOG...AS WELL AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION...WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CUTOFF LOW ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST DOES NOT ARGUE FOR A FASTER TIMING.

USED A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

LOTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE MOVED NORTH INTO OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...NO STRONG DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.5 INCHES INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL...IF CONVECTION OF STRONGER
VERTICAL FORCING DEVELOPS. TIMING OF ONSET FOR ANY PARTICULAR
LOCATION IS TRICKY. AT THIS POINT OPTED TO BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF RAIN DURING THE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE BRUNT OF THE
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
AREAS NORTH OF ROUTE 2 IN MA AND SOUTHERN NH MAY EVEN SEE THE
STEADIER RAINFALL HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING.

MOST OF THE 20/12Z GUIDANCE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. MOST OF THESE INDICES ARE MARGINAL...BUT
THINK THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CONSISTENT SIGNAL TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. TIMING AGAIN IS IFFY.

USED A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES AND ABUNDANCE OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE REMNANT
FROM TS ALBERTO AND NEIGHBORING AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE ERN ATLANTIC
MAKES FOR A CHAOTIC FCST. CONFIDENCE LIES THAT AN ELONGATED SHRTWV
TROF AXIS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY SWEEP OFFSHORE ACTING
AS A FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WHILE PUSHING THE BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRES NEWD AND OUT OF THE RGN. WHILE IT/S FELT THE AXIS WILL
PROVIDE ENHANCED ASCENT LENDING TO SFC CONVERGENCE AND FRONTO-
GENESIS...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEARS VERY WEAK DUE TO THE WEAK
NATURE OF THE TROF AXIS AND ATTENDANT BAROCLINIC ZONE. FEEL TUE
MAYBE FAIRLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED TO SCTD SHOWERS /BETTER CHCS TO
THE WEST/...WHEREAS WED WILL BE THE BETTER CHC FOR WET WX AS THE
TROF AXIS SWEEPS THRU THE RGN. ANTICIPATING AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE
FOR THE TUE EVNG PD /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTLINES AND OVER THE
WATERS/.

THURSDAY...

ENERGY ALONG THE SRN TIER OF AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV TROF AXIS WILL
CYCLONICALLY DEEPEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET
ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ANTICIPATE
A SECONDARY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES TO GRADUALLY LIFT WITH THE MEAN
FLOW THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OFFSHORE. BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE RGN
COUPLED WITH A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN LENDS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SCTD POP-UP SHOWERS. FEEL SOME OROGRAPHICAL AID IS GIVEN ALONG THE
EWD SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN AS E/SELY ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENHANCE IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING DEEPER SYS ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS. FLOW
WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED OUT OF THE SW ALOFT ADVECTING WARMER AIR
ACROSS THE RGN AND ACTING TO CAP THE LOW-LVLS AROUND H85. SO
UNCERTAINTY PREVAILS AS TO WHETHER LOW-LVL FORCING WILL OVERCOME THE
MID-LYR CAP. ANTICIPATE SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THUNDER.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

AS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE...WAA AND SUBSEQUENT
RIDGING AHEAD OF A DEEP SYS THRU THE NRN CONUS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
FCST DRY INTO SATURDAY. INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THE RIDGE ULTIMATELY IMPACTS THE EXPECTATION OF A SFC COLD
FRNT ACROSS THE RGN WITH SHOWERS AND PSBL THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE
LIES THAT SHOULD THE SFC COLD FRNT TRAVERSE THE RGN DURING THE SAT
AFTN PD...THEN LIKELY SFC-BASED INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH FRONTO-
GENETICAL FORCING WILL LIKELY YIELD THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND AWAY FROM THE MARINE ZONES/. WILL HINT AS THE
POSSIBILITY IN THE FCST FOR SAT AFTN. WHETHER THE SFC COLD FRNT
PUSHES OFFSHORE REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT MUCH OF THE FCST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT STRONGER HIGH PRES WILL BUILD S OUT OF CANADA AND PUSH
ENERGY OUT TO SEA.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...

AT FIRST GUESS IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRES RIDGING SEWD OUT OF CANADA
WILL KEEP THE FCST PD COOL AND DRY UNDER NLY FLOW. LOW-LVL PROFILES
WILL LIKELY BE WELL-MIXED LENDING TO DIURNAL CU AND MIX-DOWN OF BOTH
DRIER AIR AND FASTER MOMENTUM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN STRATUS AND FOG
IMPACT THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING THIS AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR AS IT MOVES NORTH. COULD ALSO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS BRING
MVFR CONDITIONS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR-IFR ACROSS
THE REGION AS SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO MOVE N. LOWEST
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WITH LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
MAINLY VFR-MVFR ACROSS SW NH/NW MA. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG AND SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF LOWER CLOUDS AND PRECIP MONDAY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF LOWER CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THOUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DURING THE DAY MIXED MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WITH
INTERMITTENT VFR PSBL. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR TUES NGT.
SHOWERS MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY WED. LGT SLY WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR TO LINGER THRU THURS...IMPROVING VFR
INTO FRI. COLD FRNT APPROACHING...INCREASING SLY FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.

3-5 FT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELLS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...DO NOT THINK THIS SWELL
WILL CHANGE MUCH DURING THAT TIME. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO HAZARDOUS SEAS.

EXPECT THESE SWELLS TO ALSO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH COAST BEACHES.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INITIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A WEAK
AND DIFFUSE COLD FRNTL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AS TS
ALBERTO LIFTS NEWD JUST S AND E OF THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK. LIKELY
SWELL FROM THE STORM WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER
THE WATERS...BUT THE PROXIMITY AND THE DISTINCT NATURE OF TS
ALBERTO SHOULD KEEP THE WIND IMPACTS MINIMAL ALONG THE S/E OUTER
WATERS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. SCA FOR HAZ SEAS CONTINUING.

OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF BROAD AREAS OF LOW PRES ACROSS THE WATERS
FOR THE PERIOD SHALL INVOKE LIFT OF A VERY MOIST SUB-TROPICAL
AIRMASS. ANTICIPATE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS WITH EVNG
PERIODS COMPRISED OF AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE /TUE EVNG LOOKING LIKE
A SURE BET/. LIKELY VSBY IMPACTS WHILE THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE
S/SELY FOR THE WEEK...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS ENHANCING BY FRI AHEAD OF A
COLD FNTL DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE GRT LKS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL

000
FXUS61 KBOX 201852
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
252 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING US ONE MORE BEAUTIFUL DAY TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEKEND.  LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE COAST...BRINGING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVED
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS. MOS GUIDANCE DEW POINTS ARE TOO
LOW...FOUND VALUES MUCH CLOSER TO REALITY IN THE RAW MODEL OUTPUT.

TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
MOVE OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A BROAD
MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW TO STEER A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES OUR WAY LATE TONIGHT.

MAIN IMPACT TONIGHT WILL BE A INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE IDEA OF STRATUS AND
FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST TONIGHT. AM THINKING THESE LOWER CLOUDS
AND FOG...AS WELL AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION...WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CUTOFF LOW ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST DOES NOT ARGUE FOR A FASTER TIMING.

USED A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE MOVED NORTH INTO OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...NO STRONG DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.5 INCHES INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL...IF CONVECTION OF STRONGER
VERTICAL FORCING DEVELOPS. TIMING OF ONSET FOR ANY PARTICULAR
LOCATION IS TRICKY. AT THIS POINT OPTED TO BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF RAIN DURING THE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE BRUNT OF THE
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
AREAS NORTH OF ROUTE 2 IN MA AND SOUTHERN NH MAY EVEN SEE THE
STEADIER RAINFALL HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING.

MOST OF THE 20/12Z GUIDANCE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. MOST OF THESE INDICES ARE MARGINAL...BUT
THINK THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CONSISTENT SIGNAL TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. TIMING AGAIN IS IFFY.

USED A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY MON NIGHT
* SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER TUE-WED BUT WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI WITH PLEASANT TEMPS

DETAILS...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HOWEVER...AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WHILE A WASHOUT IS NOT
EXPECTED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DID NOT INSERT ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME SINCE INSTABILITY IS
UNCERTAIN...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER IT.  BEST CHANCE
FOR THAT APPEARS TO BE ON WED.  HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
70S...BUT SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ARE LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO SUPPORT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF SPOT
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY AVERAGE AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN HIGH HEIGHT FIELDS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING THE CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWER
SOMETIME SAT AND/OR SAT NIGHT.  WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME.  NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT...BUT IF TIMING IS
RIGHT LATER SHIFTS WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO CONSIDER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN STRATUS AND FOG
IMPACT THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING THIS AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR AS IT MOVES NORTH. COULD ALSO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS BRING
MVFR CONDITIONS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR-IFR ACROSS
THE REGION AS SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO MOVE N. LOWEST
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WITH LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
MAINLY VFR-MVFR ACROSS SW NH/NW MA. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG AND SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF LOWER CLOUDS AND PRECIP MONDAY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF LOWER CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
MAY BE MIXED WITH TIMES OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.

3-5 FT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELLS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...DO NOT THINK THIS SWELL
WILL CHANGE MUCH DURING THAT TIME. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO HAZARDOUS SEAS.

EXPECT THESE SWELLS TO ALSO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH COAST BEACHES.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR SOME OF THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO BEING ABSORBED INTO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SCA SEAS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST
PART OF WED. A PERIOD OF MARGINAL 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY TUE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST WATERS. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. MARINERS PLANNING TO TRAVEL OFFSHORE SHOULD KEEP ALERT OF
THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
CONCERN IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/FRANK

000
FXUS61 KBOX 201440
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1040 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING US ONE MORE BEAUTIFUL DAY TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEKEND.  LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE COAST...BRINGING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS MORNING. MADE
MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO DEW POINT TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. LATEST OBSERVED DEW POINTS WERE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. DESPITE THE HIGHER DEW POINTS...DO NOT EXPECT ANY
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OR RAINFALL CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LIGHT E-SE WINDS
WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WELL OFFSHORE.
SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT BAY THROUGH TODAY.
WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE AND A LITTLE HIGHER LAUNCHING POINT...
EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND NICELY...AND A BIT MILDER AWAY FROM THE
COAST AS H85 TEMPS OF +12C TO +14C MOVE IN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE 60S TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST...UP TO THE LOWER-MID 80S WELL
INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...BROAD CUTOFF LOW PRES WILL SPIN SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE
SYSTEMS...AS WELL AS T.S. ALBERTO ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE COAST.
ONE OF THESE LOWS WILL START TO PUSH UP THE COAST...BRINGING CLOUDS
FROM THE S DURING TONIGHT. E-SE WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO START TO PUSH IN.  SOME MODELS STARTING TO SHOW AN
INVERTED TROUGH TRYING TO SET UP NEAR OR OFF THE S COAST...WHICH
WILL HELP FOCUS MOISTURE AS IT WORKS TOWARD THE COAST. HOWEVER...
WITH DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO NOSE
ACROSS THE REGION...LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY.
HOWEVER...LOW OCEAN CLOUDS WILL WORK INTO S COASTAL AREAS PROBABLY
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
AND LIGHT E-SE WINDS...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A BIT MILDER...MAINLY IN
THE LOWER-MID 50S.

MONDAY...APPEARS THAT THE INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION ZONE WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION. CONTINUED TO CARRY LIKELY POPS...AND SOME AREAS
COULD SEE SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AS PW/S INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.7
INCHES AS TROPICAL AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM DOWN THE COAST. MAY
SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH THIS...BUT HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET UP. BEST SHOT RIGHT NOW WILL BE ALONG THE
S COAST...BUT MIGHT PUSH FURTHER INLAND. ALSO NOTING GOOD
INSTABILITY WORKING IN WITH THE MOISTURE WITH LIFTED INDICES BELOW
ZERO AND TQ VALUES APPROACHING 20 /GOOD FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY/.
HAVE MENTIONED ISOLD THUNDER DURING THE DAY...BUT AGAIN HARD TO
PINPOINT WHERE THIS MAY HAPPEN.  EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY MON NIGHT
* SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER TUE-WED BUT WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI WITH PLEASANT TEMPS

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THE REMNANTS OF AT LEAST PART OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO LOOK TO GET
ABSORBED INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK MON NIGHT.  SINCE THIS
SYSTEM WILL STILL HAVE SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...HIGH PWATS
WILL SUPPORT A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN.  AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE.  STILL EXPECT PERIODS
OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AND WITH HIGH PWATS...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS.  NOT TOO CONCERNED FOR STRONG
WINDS...AS WE WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HOWEVER...AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WHILE A WASHOUT IS NOT
EXPECTED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DID NOT INSERT ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME SINCE INSTABILITY IS
UNCERTAIN...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER IT.  BEST CHANCE
FOR THAT APPEARS TO BE ON WED.  HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
70S...BUT SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ARE LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO SUPPORT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF SPOT
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY AVERAGE AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN HIGH HEIGHT FIELDS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING THE CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWER
SOMETIME SAT AND/OR SAT NIGHT.  WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME.  NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT...BUT IF TIMING IS
RIGHT LATER SHIFTS WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO CONSIDER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START FOR ALL AREAS. MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE IN ACROSS S
RI/S COASTAL MA IN STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN
MOVES N THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCT SHOWERS ALSO MOVE IN FROM S-N.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR-IFR ACROSS THE REGION AS SHOWERS AND AREAS
OF FOG CONTINUE TO MOVE N...LOWEST ALONG THE COAST WITH LOCAL LIFR
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR-MVFR ACROSS SW NH/NW MA. GENERAL
E-SE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN
LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND SHOWERS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
MAY BE MIXED WITH TIMES OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY...S SWELLS OF 5 FEET CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWARD...SO HAVE CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. OTHERWISE...E-SE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS HIGH
PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

TONIGHT-MONDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
THROUGH MONDAY AS WILL SEE CONTINUE S-SE WIND FETCH OFF THE OCEAN AS
WELL AS SWELLS PROPAGATING UP THE COAST FROM SYSTEMS S OF THE REGION
INCLUDING TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO.  SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 7 FT
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS MONDAY.

EXPECT THE SWELLS TO ALSO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG EXPOSED S COAST BEACHES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR SOME OF THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO BEING ABSORBED INTO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK MON NIGHT.  SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN SCA SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS MON NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST PART OF WED.  A PERIOD OF MARGINAL 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON AND EARLY TUE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
WATERS.  HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  MARINERS PLANNING TO TRAVEL
OFFSHORE SHOULD KEEP ALERT OF THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS.  WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT/FRANK
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...EVT/FRANK
MARINE...EVT/FRANK

000
FXUS61 KGYX 201328
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
928 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...CURRENT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL UPDATE DIGITAL PRODUCTS
WITH CURRENT TEMPS.


PREVIOUSLY...500MB RIDGING AND SFC HIGH HOLD ON FOR ABOUT 24 MORE
HOURS AS WEAK BUT PERSISTENT SW FLOW AT MID LVLS CONTINUE TO
STREAM IN WARMER AIR...ALLOWING 850MB TEMPS TO APPROACH 15C
TODAY....AND SHOULD MIX PRETTY CLOSE TO THAT...SO EXPECTING MOST
INLAND SPOTS TO MAKE IT TOM 80...WITH NORMALLY WARMER PLACES
REACHING INTO THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG THE COAST...WILL
SEE THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOP...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL 17 OR
18Z...SO...EXCEPT FOR THE BEACHES...COASTAL AREAS SHOULD MAKE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE
COOLS THINGS DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
IT SHOULD STAY MAINLY CLEAR...OTHER THAN SOME CI STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...SO SOME RAD COOLING POSSIBLE WITH LOWS MID
40S TO LOW 50S.

ON MONDAY...WILL BE WATCHING PROGRESS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM AS
IT DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CLOSED 500MB LOW
OVER THE SERN US. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT TS ALBERTO...BUT MAY DRAG
SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NWD MONDAY WILL
SEE EASTERLY GRADIENT DEVELOP...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING SFC MOISTURE INLAND...COULD SEE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG AND DZ DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM
PORTLAND SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME SHRA AS WELL IN THE SR
ZONES MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS
COOLER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRES...ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION NE OF THE BAHAMAS
ATTM...WILL PASS SE OF THE REGION AND INTO THE MARITIMES. WHILE
NOT T.S. ALBERTO IN ORIGIN...IT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES ON TUE. COMPLICATING THE FCST WILL BE A
COLD FNT APPROACHING FROM THE W. THIS WILL ACT TO KICK OUT THE
COASTAL LOW BEFORE IT CAN GET TOO FAR W. HOWEVER...SHRA WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD THRU THE CWA...WITH HEAVY RAFL PSBL AT
TIMES. TSTMS WILL ALSO BE PSBL TUE...AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALOFT.
EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN LATER TUE AS LOW PRES PULLS
AWAY...WITH SHRA INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE W AS COLD FNT BEGINS TO
PUSH INTO THE MTNS.

COLD FNT SWEEPS THRU THE CWA OVERNIGHT...AND CLEARS THE COAST BY
LATE WED. SOME LINGERING SHRA OR CLOUDS WILL BE PSBL IN THE FAR S
WED BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. NEXT FNT APPROACHES THE FCST AREA
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...AS RIDGE ALOFT TRIES TO BUILD IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FNT...SW FLOW COULD BRING IN VERY WARM TEMPS.
THERE ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT
THIS RANGE THOUGH. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING CENTERED
OVER THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE COUNTRY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
STEEPER LAPSE RATES EJECTING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
COUPLING WITH STRONGER FLOW ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO PRODUCE A
TSTM EVENT OR TWO FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONSIDERING
THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE...HAVE NOT DEPARTED MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST. HOWEVER...FCST PATTERN AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS WOULD
SUPPORT A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD COMING UP.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH SOME VLY FOG
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME MVFR OR IFR IN FOG AND DZ
MONDAY AFTERNOON AT KPSM AND KPWM.

LONG TERM...MVFR OF LOWER CONDS PSBL LATE MON INTO TUE WITH SHRA
FROM COASTAL LOW PRES. THEN COLD FNT APPROACHES FROM THE W WITH
MVFR CONDS PSBL IN SHRA LATE TUE INTO WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS
SHIFT ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN....AND SEAS IN THE OPEN WATERS CONTINUE AT 3-4 FT IN
SWELL.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BUILD ABOVE 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
TUE LASTING INTO WED...AS LOW PRES PASSES SE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTERNOON RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. EXPECT GOOD RECOVERY
TONIGHT...AND HIGHER RH VALUES ON MONDAY...AS MOIST AIR AND
EVENTUALLY RAIN MOVE IN MON NIGHT OR TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TFH

000
FXUS61 KBOX 201124
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
724 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING US ONE MORE BEAUTIFUL DAY TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEKEND.  LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE COAST...BRINGING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

715 AM UPDATE...
OTHER THAN SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS MORNING...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A RAPID CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LIGHT E-SE WINDS
WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WELL OFFSHORE.
SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT BAY THROUGH TODAY.
WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE AND A LITTLE HIGHER LAUNCHING POINT...
EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND NICELY...AND A BIT MILDER AWAY FROM THE
COAST AS H85 TEMPS OF +12C TO +14C MOVE IN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE 60S TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST...UP TO THE LOWER-MID 80S WELL
INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...BROAD CUTOFF LOW PRES WILL SPIN SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE
SYSTEMS...AS WELL AS T.S. ALBERTO ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE COAST.
ONE OF THESE LOWS WILL START TO PUSH UP THE COAST...BRINGING CLOUDS
FROM THE S DURING TONIGHT. E-SE WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO START TO PUSH IN.  SOME MODELS STARTING TO SHOW AN
INVERTED TROUGH TRYING TO SET UP NEAR OR OFF THE S COAST...WHICH
WILL HELP FOCUS MOISTURE AS IT WORKS TOWARD THE COAST. HOWEVER...
WITH DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO NOSE
ACROSS THE REGION...LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY.
HOWEVER...LOW OCEAN CLOUDS WILL WORK INTO S COASTAL AREAS PROBABLY
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
AND LIGHT E-SE WINDS...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A BIT MILDER... MAINLY IN
THE LOWER-MID 50S.

MONDAY...APPEARS THAT THE INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION ZONE WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION. CONTINUED TO CARRY LIKELY POPS...AND SOME AREAS
COULD SEE SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AS PW/S INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.7
INCHES AS TROPICAL AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM DOWN THE COAST. MAY
SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH THIS...BUT HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET UP. BEST SHOT RIGHT NOW WILL BE ALONG THE
S COAST...BUT MIGHT PUSH FURTHER INLAND. ALSO NOTING GOOD
INSTABILITY WORKING IN WITH THE MOISTURE WITH LIFTED INDICES BELOW
ZERO AND TQ VALUES APPROACHING 20 /GOOD FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY/.
HAVE MENTIONED ISOLD THUNDER DURING THE DAY...BUT AGAIN HARD TO
PINPOINT WHERE THIS MAY HAPPEN.  EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY MON NIGHT
* SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER TUE-WED BUT WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI WITH PLEASANT TEMPS

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THE REMNANTS OF AT LEAST PART OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO LOOK TO GET
ABSORBED INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK MON NIGHT.  SINCE THIS
SYSTEM WILL STILL HAVE SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...HIGH PWATS
WILL SUPPORT A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN.  AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE.  STILL EXPECT PERIODS
OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AND WITH HIGH PWATS...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS.  NOT TOO CONCERNED FOR STRONG
WINDS...AS WE WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HOWEVER...AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WHILE A WASHOUT IS NOT
EXPECTED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DID NOT INSERT ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME SINCE INSTABILITY IS
UNCERTAIN...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER IT.  BEST CHANCE
FOR THAT APPEARS TO BE ON WED.  HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
70S...BUT SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ARE LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO SUPPORT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF SPOT
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY AVERAGE AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN HIGH HEIGHT FIELDS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING THE CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWER
SOMETIME SAT AND/OR SAT NIGHT.  WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME.  NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT...BUT IF TIMING IS
RIGHT LATER SHIFTS WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO CONSIDER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START FOR ALL AREAS. MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE IN ACROSS S
RI/S COASTAL MA IN STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN
MOVES N THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCT SHOWERS ALSO MOVE IN FROM S-N.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR-IFR ACROSS THE REGION AS SHOWERS AND AREAS
OF FOG CONTINUE TO MOVE N...LOWEST ALONG THE COAST WITH LOCAL LIFR
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR-MVFR ACROSS SW NH/NW MA. GENERAL
E-SE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN
LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND SHOWERS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
MAY BE MIXED WITH TIMES OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY...S SWELLS OF 5 FEET CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWARD...SO HAVE CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. OTHERWISE...E-SE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS HIGH
PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

TONIGHT-MONDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
THROUGH MONDAY AS WILL SEE CONTINUE S-SE WIND FETCH OFF THE OCEAN AS
WELL AS SWELLS PROPAGATING UP THE COAST FROM SYSTEMS S OF THE REGION
INCLUDING TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO.  SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 7 FT
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS MONDAY.

EXPECT THE SWELLS TO ALSO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG EXPOSED S COAST BEACHES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR SOME OF THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO BEING ABSORBED INTO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK MON NIGHT.  SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN SCA SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS MON NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST PART OF WED.  A PERIOD OF MARGINAL 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON AND EARLY TUE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
WATERS.  HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  MARINERS PLANNING TO TRAVEL
OFFSHORE SHOULD KEEP ALERT OF THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS.  WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
MONDAY      FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...EVT/FRANK
MARINE...EVT/FRANK

000
FXUS61 KGYX 201043
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
643 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
0645...NO REAL CHANGES TO FORECAST...JUST SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY/TEMPS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUSLY...500MB RIDGING AND SFC HIGH HOLD ON FOR ABOUT 24 MORE
HOURS AS WEAK BUT PERSISTENT SW FLOW AT MID LVLS CONTINUE TO
STREAM IN WARMER AIR...ALLOWING 850MB TEMPS TO APPROACH 15C
TODAY....AND SHOULD MIX PRETTY CLOSE TO THAT...SO EXPECTING MOST
INLAND SPOTS TO MAKE IT TOM 80...WITH NORMALLY WARMER PLACES
REACHING INTO THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG THE COAST...WILL
SEE THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOP...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL 17 OR
18Z...SO...EXCEPT FOR THE BEACHES...COASTAL AREAS SHOULD MAKE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE
COOLS THINGS DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IT SHOULD STAY MAINLY CLEAR...OTHER THAN SOME CI STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...SO SOME RAD COOLING POSSIBLE WITH LOWS MID
40S TO LOW 50S.

ON MONDAY...WILL BE WATCHING PROGRESS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM AS
IT DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CLOSED 500MB LOW
OVER THE SERN US. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT TS ALBERTO...BUT MAY DRAG
SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NWD MONDAY WILL
SEE EASTERLY GRADIENT DEVELOP...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING SFC MOISTURE INLAND...COULD SEE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG AND DZ DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM
PORTLAND SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME SHRA AS WELL IN THE SR
ZONES MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS
COOLER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRES...ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION NE OF THE BAHAMAS
ATTM...WILL PASS SE OF THE REGION AND INTO THE MARITIMES. WHILE
NOT T.S. ALBERTO IN ORIGIN...IT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES ON TUE. COMPLICATING THE FCST WILL BE A
COLD FNT APPROACHING FROM THE W. THIS WILL ACT TO KICK OUT THE
COASTAL LOW BEFORE IT CAN GET TOO FAR W. HOWEVER...SHRA WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD THRU THE CWA...WITH HEAVY RAFL PSBL AT
TIMES. TSTMS WILL ALSO BE PSBL TUE...AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALOFT.
EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN LATER TUE AS LOW PRES PULLS
AWAY...WITH SHRA INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE W AS COLD FNT BEGINS TO
PUSH INTO THE MTNS.

COLD FNT SWEEPS THRU THE CWA OVERNIGHT...AND CLEARS THE COAST BY
LATE WED. SOME LINGERING SHRA OR CLOUDS WILL BE PSBL IN THE FAR S
WED BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. NEXT FNT APPROACHES THE FCST AREA
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...AS RIDGE ALOFT TRIES TO BUILD IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FNT...SW FLOW COULD BRING IN VERY WARM TEMPS.
THERE ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT
THIS RANGE THOUGH. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING CENTERED
OVER THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE COUNTRY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
STEEPER LAPSE RATES EJECTING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
COUPLING WITH STRONGER FLOW ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO PRODUCE A
TSTM EVENT OR TWO FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONSIDERING
THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE...HAVE NOT DEPARTED MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST. HOWEVER...FCST PATTERN AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS WOULD
SUPPORT A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD COMING UP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH SOME VLY FOG
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME MVFR OR IFR IN FOG AND DZ
MONDAY AFTERNOON AT KPSM AND KPWM.

LONG TERM...MVFR OF LOWER CONDS PSBL LATE MON INTO TUE WITH SHRA
FROM COASTAL LOW PRES. THEN COLD FNT APPROACHES FROM THE W WITH
MVFR CONDS PSBL IN SHRA LATE TUE INTO WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS
SHIFT ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN....AND SEAS IN THE OPEN WATERS CONTINUE AT 3-4 FT IN
SWELL.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BUILD ABOVE 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
TUE LASTING INTO WED...AS LOW PRES PASSES SE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTERNOON RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. EXPECT GOOD RECOVERY
TONIGHT...AND HIGHER RH VALUES ON MONDAY...AS MOIST AIR AND
EVENTUALLY RAIN MOVE IN MON NIGHT OR TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 200913
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
505 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING US ONE MORE BEAUTIFUL DAY TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEKEND.  LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE COAST...BRINGING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OTHER THAN AN AREA OF HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS...DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LIGHT E-SE WINDS
WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WELL OFFSHORE.
SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT BAY THROUGH TODAY.
WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE AND A LITTLE HIGHER LAUNCHING POINT...
EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND NICELY...AND A BIT MILDER AWAY FROM THE
COAST AS H85 TEMPS OF +12C TO +14C MOVE IN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE 60S TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST...UP TO THE LOWER-MID 80S WELL
INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...BROAD CUTOFF LOW PRES WILL SPIN SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE
SYSTEMS...AS WELL AS T.S. ALBERTO ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE COAST.
ONE OF THESE LOWS WILL START TO PUSH UP THE COAST...BRINGING CLOUDS
FROM THE S DURING TONIGHT. E-SE WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO START TO PUSH IN.  SOME MODELS STARTING TO SHOW AN
INVERTED TROUGH TRYING TO SET UP NEAR OR OFF THE S COAST...WHICH
WILL HELP FOCUS MOISTURE AS IT WORKS TOWARD THE COAST. HOWEVER...
WITH DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO NOSE
ACROSS THE REGION...LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY.
HOWEVER...LOW OCEAN CLOUDS WILL WORK INTO S COASTAL AREAS PROBABLY
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
AND LIGHT E-SE WINDS...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A BIT MILDER... MAINLY IN
THE LOWER-MID 50S.

MONDAY...APPEARS THAT THE INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION ZONE WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION. CONTINUED TO CARRY LIKELY POPS...AND SOME AREAS
COULD SEE SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AS PW/S INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.7
INCHES AS TROPICAL AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM DOWN THE COAST. MAY
SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH THIS...BUT HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET UP. BEST SHOT RIGHT NOW WILL BE ALONG THE
S COAST...BUT MIGHT PUSH FURTHER INLAND. ALSO NOTING GOOD
INSTABILITY WORKING IN WITH THE MOISTURE WITH LIFTED INDICES BELOW
ZERO AND TQ VALUES APPROACHING 20 /GOOD FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY/.
HAVE MENTIONED ISOLD THUNDER DURING THE DAY...BUT AGAIN HARD TO
PINPOINT WHERE THIS MAY HAPPEN.  EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY MON NIGHT
* SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER TUE-WED BUT WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI WITH PLEASANT TEMPS

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THE REMNANTS OF AT LEAST PART OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO LOOK TO GET
ABSORBED INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK MON NIGHT.  SINCE THIS
SYSTEM WILL STILL HAVE SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...HIGH PWATS
WILL SUPPORT A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN.  AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE.  STILL EXPECT PERIODS
OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AND WITH HIGH PWATS...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS.  NOT TOO CONCERNED FOR STRONG
WINDS...AS WE WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HOWEVER...AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WHILE A WASHOUT IS NOT
EXPECTED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DID NOT INSERT ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME SINCE INSTABILITY IS
UNCERTAIN...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER IT.  BEST CHANCE
FOR THAT APPEARS TO BE ON WED.  HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
70S...BUT SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ARE LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO SUPPORT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF SPOT
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY AVERAGE AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN HIGH HEIGHT FIELDS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING THE CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWER
SOMETIME SAT AND/OR SAT NIGHT.  WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME.  NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT...BUT IF TIMING IS
RIGHT LATER SHIFTS WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO CONSIDER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.  MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG
AT A FEW OF THE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE AIRPORT LOCATIONS LIKE KORE OR
KEEN.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS. ANY LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL
IMPROVE BY 14Z. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COAST WITH LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START FOR ALL AREAS. MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE IN ACROSS S
RI/S COASTAL MA IN STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN
MOVES N THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCT SHOWERS ALSO MOVE IN FROM S-N.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR-IFR ACROSS THE REGION AS SHOWERS AND AREAS
OF FOG CONTINUE TO MOVE N...LOWEST ALONG THE COAST WITH LOCAL LIFR
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR-MVFR ACROSS SW NH/NW MA. GENERAL
E-SE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
12Z MONDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MAINLY IN
CIGS BUT PATCHY FOG AS WELL. EXPECT SEA BREEZE DURING THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN GENERAL E-SE WINDS FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AROUND
APPROACHING LOW PRES. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS WORKING N TO THE AIRPORT
BY DAYBREAK MON. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN
LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND SHOWERS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
MAY BE MIXED WITH TIMES OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY...S SWELLS OF 5 FEET CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWARD...SO HAVE CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. OTHERWISE...E-SE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS HIGH
PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

TONIGHT-MONDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
THROUGH MONDAY AS WILL SEE CONTINUE S-SE WIND FETCH OFF THE OCEAN AS
WELL AS SWELLS PROPAGATING UP THE COAST FROM SYSTEMS S OF THE REGION
INCLUDING TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO.  SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 7 FT
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS MONDAY.

EXPECT THE SWELLS TO ALSO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG EXPOSED S COAST BEACHES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR SOME OF THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO BEING ABSORBED INTO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK MON NIGHT.  SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN SCA SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS MON NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST PART OF WED.  A PERIOD OF MARGINAL 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON AND EARLY TUE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
WATERS.  HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  MARINERS PLANNING TO TRAVEL
OFFSHORE SHOULD KEEP ALERT OF THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS.  WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT

000
FXUS61 KBOX 200908
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
505 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING US ONE MORE BEAUTIFUL DAY TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEKEND.  LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE COAST...BRINGING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OTHER THAN AN AREA OF HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS...DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LIGHT E-SE WINDS
WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WELL OFFSHORE.
SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT BAY THROUGH TODAY.
WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE AND A LITTLE HIGHER LAUNCHING POINT...
EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND NICELY...AND A BIT MILDER AWAY FROM THE
COAST AS H85 TEMPS OF +12C TO +14C MOVE IN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE 60S TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST...UP TO THE LOWER-MID 80S WELL
INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...WITH BROAD CUTOFF LOW PRES WILL SPIN SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE
SYSTEMS...AS WELL AS T.S. ALBERTO ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE COAST.
ONE OF THESE LOWS WILL START TO PUSH UP THE COAST...BRINGING CLOUDS
FROM THE S DURING TONIGHT. E-SE WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO START TO PUSH IN.  SOME MODELS STARTING TO SHOW AN
INVERTED TROUGH TRYING TO SET UP NEAR OR OFF THE S COAST...WHICH
WILL HELP FOCUS MOISTURE AS IT WORKS IN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
HOWEVER...WITH DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO NOSE ACROSS THE REGION...LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY. HOWEVER...LOW OCEAN CLOUDS WILL WORK INTO S COASTAL AREAS
PROBABLY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND LIGHT E-SE WINDS...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A BIT
MILDER..MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.

MONDAY...APPEARS THAT THE INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION ZONE WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION. CONTINUED TO CARRY LIKELY POPS...AND SOME AREAS
COULD SEE SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AS PW/S INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.7
INCHES AS TROPICAL AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM DOWN THE COAST. MAY
SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH THIS...BUT HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET UP. BEST SHOT RIGHT NOW WILL BE ALONG THE
S COAST...BUT MIGHT PUSH FURTHER INLAND. ALSO NOTING GOOD
INSTABILITY WORKING IN WITH THE MOISTURE WITH LIFTED INDICES BELOW
ZERO AND TQ VALUES APPROACHING 20 /GOOD FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY/.
HAVE MENTIONED ISOLD THUNDER DURING THE DAY...BUT AGAIN HARD TO
PINPOINT WHERE THIS MAY HAPPEN.  EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY MON NIGHT
* SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER TUE-WED BUT WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI WITH PLEASANT TEMPS

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THE REMNANTS OF AT LEAST PART OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO LOOK TO GET
ABSORBED INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK MON NIGHT.  SINCE THIS
SYSTEM WILL STILL HAVE SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...HIGH PWATS
WILL SUPPORT A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN.  AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE.  STILL EXPECT PERIODS
OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AND WITH HIGH PWATS...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS.  NOT TOO CONCERNED FOR STRONG
WINDS...AS WE WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HOWEVER...AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WHILE A WASHOUT IS NOT
EXPECTED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DID NOT INSERT ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME SINCE INSTABILITY IS
UNCERTAIN...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER IT.  BEST CHANCE
FOR THAT APPEARS TO BE ON WED.  HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
70S...BUT SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ARE LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO SUPPORT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF SPOT
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY AVERAGE AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN HIGH HEIGHT FIELDS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING THE CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWER
SOMETIME SAT AND/OR SAT NIGHT.  WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME.  NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT...BUT IF TIMING IS
RIGHT LATER SHIFTS WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO CONSIDER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.  MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG
AT A FEW OF THE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE AIRPORT LOCATIONS LIKE KORE OR
KEEN.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS. ANY LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL
IMPROVE BY 14Z. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COAST WITH LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START FOR ALL AREAS. MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE IN ACROSS S
RI/S COASTAL MA IN STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN
MOVES N THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCT SHOWERS ALSO MOVE IN FROM S-N.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR-IFR ACROSS THE REGION AS SHOWERS AND AREAS
OF FOG CONTINUE TO MOVE N...LOWEST ALONG THE COAST WITH LOCAL LIFR
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR-MVFR ACROSS SW NH/NW MA. GENERAL
E-SE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
12Z MONDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MAINLY IN
CIGS BUT PATCHY FOG AS WELL. EXPECT SEA BREEZE DURING THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN GENERAL E-SE WINDS FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AROUND
APPROACHING LOW PRES. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS WORKING N TO THE AIRPORT
BY DAYBREAK MON. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN
LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND SHOWERS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
MAY BE MIXED WITH TIMES OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY...S SWELLS OF 5 FEET CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWARD...SO HAVE CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. OTHERWISE...E-SE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS HIGH
PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

TONIGHT-MONDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
THROUGH MONDAY AS WILL SEE CONTINUE S-SE WIND FETCH OFF THE OCEAN AS
WELL AS SWELLS PROPAGATING UP THE COAST FROM SYSTEMS S OF THE REGION
INCLUDING TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO.  SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 7 FT
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS MONDAY.

EXPECT THE SWELLS TO ALSO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG EXPOSED S COAST BEACHES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR SOME OF THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO BEING ABSORBED INTO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK MON NIGHT.  SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN SCA SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS MON NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST PART OF WED.  A PERIOD OF MARGINAL 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON AND EARLY TUE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
WATERS.  HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  MARINERS PLANNING TO TRAVEL
OFFSHORE SHOULD KEEP ALERT OF THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS.  WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT

000
FXUS61 KBOX 200824
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
423 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING US ONE MORE BEAUTIFUL DAY TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEKEND.  LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE COAST AND BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS MON AND MON NIGHT.  A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER TUE INTO
WED...BUT A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
245 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF CIRRUS CLOUDS HAS SLOWLY MOVED ACROSS E CT/RI/SE MA SINCE
02Z AS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT OR CALM WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS SITS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT 06Z.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT...THOUGH DEWPTS ARE
STILL PROBLEMATIC. READINGS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...THOUGH MAINLY
IN THE 40S EXCEPT FOR A FEW LOW 50S. WITH THE HIGHER THAN FORECAST
DEWPTS AND TEMPS FALLING THANKS TO RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY FROM TODAY
ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS ORIGINALLY MODELED. ANTICIPATE HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S INLAND WITH A FEW SPOTS
POSSIBLY MAKING IT TO 85 DEGREES. IN CONTRAST THE LIGHT PRES
GRADIENT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEA BREEZES ALONG ALL COASTS WHERE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 65 TO 75 DEGREES. EXPECT SKIES
TO REMAIN CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
SHOWING UP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED PATTERN OF ONE OR MORE LOW
PRES CENTERS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BEGIN TO BE A PLAYER
IN OUR WEATHER. EXPECT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUDS TO WORK ITS WAY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND BELIEVE THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY DRIZZLE REACHING THE SOUTH COAST
LATE AT NIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE ELEVATED
SUNDAY NIGHT AND GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EXCEPT ACROSS FAR
NW MA AND SW NH WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD
AT NIGHT MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN RISING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OVER THE COOLER
WATER TEMPERATURES SETTING THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. BOTH THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE ARE BULLISH
ON BRINGING STRATUS AND FOG ONTO THE S COAST LATE SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY MON NIGHT
* SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER TUE-WED BUT A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI WITH PLEASANT TEMPS

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THE REMNANTS OF AT LEAST PART OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO LOOK TO GET
ABSORBED INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK MON NIGHT.  SINCE THIS
SYSTEM WILL STILL HAVE SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...HIGH PWATS
WILL SUPPORT A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN.  AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE.  STILL EXPECT PERIODS
OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AND WITH HIGH PWATS...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS.  NOT TOO CONCERNED FOR STRONG
WINDS...AS WE WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HOWEVER...AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WHILE A WASHOUT IS NOT
EXPECTED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DID NOT INSERT ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME SINCE INSTABILITY IS
UNCERTAIN...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER IT.  BEST CHANCE
FOR THAT APPEARS TO BE ON WED.  HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
70S...BUT SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ARE LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO SUPPORT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF SPOT
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY AVERAGE AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN HIGH HEIGHT FIELDS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING THE CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWER
SOMETIME SAT AND/OR SAT NIGHT.  WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME.  NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT...BUT IF TIMING IS
RIGHT LATER SHIFTS WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO CONSIDER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.  MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG
AT A FEW OF THE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE AIRPORT LOCATIONS LIKE KORE OR
KEEN.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS. ANY LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL
IMPROVE BY 14Z. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COAST WITH LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START FOR ALL AREAS. MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE IN ACROSS S
RI/S COASTAL MA IN STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN
MOVES N THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCT SHOWERS ALSO MOVE IN FROM S-N.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR-IFR ACROSS THE REGION AS SHOWERS AND AREAS
OF FOG CONTINUE TO MOVE N...LOWEST ALONG THE COAST WITH LOCAL LIFR
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR-MVFR ACROSS SW NH/NW MA. GENERAL
E-SE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
12Z MONDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MAINLY IN
CIGS BUT PATCHY FOG AS WELL. EXPECT SEA BREEZE DURING THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN GENERAL E-SE WINDS FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AROUND
APPROACHING LOW PRES. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS WORKING N TO THE AIRPORT
BY DAYBREAK MON. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE DURING MONDAY.


OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN
LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND SHOWERS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
MAY BE MIXED WITH TIMES OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
1025 PM UPDATE...
NOTED HIGH SOUTH SWELLS STILL PROPAGATING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...
UP TO 7 FEET AT BUOYS 44097 AND 44008 AT 02Z. ADJUSTED SEAS JUST A
TAD...OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED EAST
OF THE CAROLINA COAST DUE TO PERSISTENT LOW PRES THERE AND
REASONABLY SIGNIFICANT S TO SE FETCH. SWELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE NORTH INTO OUR SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. NOTED 5 TO 8 FT
SWELLS INTO THE OUTER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. UP TO 7 FT SE OF BID
AND 5 FT A MILE S OF THE MVY COASTLINE. HAVE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IN SPACE TO INCLUDE RI SOUND AND PORTIONS OF BLOCK
ISLAND SOUND...AND HAVE EXPANDED IN TIME THROUGH SUN NIGHT. EXPECT
THE SWELLS TO ALSO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG EXPOSED S COAST BEACHES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR SOME OF THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO BEING ABSORBED INTO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK MON NIGHT.  SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN SCA SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS MON NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST PART OF WED.  A PERIOD OF MARGINAL 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON AND EARLY TUE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
WATERS.  HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  MARINERS PLANNING TO TRAVEL
OFFSHORE SHOULD KEEP ALERT OF THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
MONDAY      FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...EVT/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...EVT/FRANK
MARINE...EVT/FRANK

000
FXUS61 KGYX 200723
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
323 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
500MB RIDGING AND SFC HIGH HOLD ON FOR ABOUT 24 MORE HOURS AS WEAK
BUT PERSISTENT SW FLOW AT MID LVLS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN WARMER
AIR...ALLOWING 850MB TEMPS TO APPROACH 15C TODAY....AND SHOULD
MIX PRETTY CLOSE TO THAT...SO EXPECTING MOST INLAND SPOTS TO MAKE
IT TOM 80...WITH NORMALLY WARMER PLACES REACHING INTO THE MID 80S
THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG THE COAST...WILL SEE THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOP...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL 17 OR 18Z...SO...EXCEPT FOR THE
BEACHES...COASTAL AREAS SHOULD MAKE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE COOLS THINGS DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
IT SHOULD STAY MAINLY CLEAR...OTHER THAN SOME CI STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...SO SOME RAD COOLING POSSIBLE WITH LOWS MID
40S TO LOW 50S.

ON MONDAY...WILL BE WATCHING PROGRESS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM AS
IT DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CLOSED 500MB LOW
OVER THE SERN US. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT TS ALBERTO...BUT MAY DRAG
SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NWD MONDAY WILL
SEE EASTERLY GRADIENT DEVELOP...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING SFC MOISTURE INLAND...COULD SEE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG AND DZ DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM
PORTLAND SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME SHRA AS WELL IN THE SR
ZONES MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS
COOLER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRES...ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION NE OF THE BAHAMAS
ATTM...WILL PASS SE OF THE REGION AND INTO THE MARITIMES. WHILE
NOT T.S. ALBERTO IN ORIGIN...IT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES ON TUE. COMPLICATING THE FCST WILL BE A
COLD FNT APPROACHING FROM THE W. THIS WILL ACT TO KICK OUT THE
COASTAL LOW BEFORE IT CAN GET TOO FAR W. HOWEVER...SHRA WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD THRU THE CWA...WITH HEAVY RAFL PSBL AT
TIMES. TSTMS WILL ALSO BE PSBL TUE...AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALOFT.
EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN LATER TUE AS LOW PRES PULLS
AWAY...WITH SHRA INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE W AS COLD FNT BEGINS TO
PUSH INTO THE MTNS.

COLD FNT SWEEPS THRU THE CWA OVERNIGHT...AND CLEARS THE COAST BY
LATE WED. SOME LINGERING SHRA OR CLOUDS WILL BE PSBL IN THE FAR S
WED BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. NEXT FNT APPROACHES THE FCST AREA
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...AS RIDGE ALOFT TRIES TO BUILD IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FNT...SW FLOW COULD BRING IN VERY WARM TEMPS.
THERE ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT
THIS RANGE THOUGH. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING CENTERED
OVER THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE COUNTRY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
STEEPER LAPSE RATES EJECTING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
COUPLING WITH STRONGER FLOW ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO PRODUCE A
TSTM EVENT OR TWO FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONSIDERING
THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE...HAVE NOT DEPARTED MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST. HOWEVER...FCST PATTERN AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS WOULD
SUPPORT A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD COMING UP.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH SOME VLY FOG
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME MVFR OR IFR IN FOG AND DZ
MONDAY AFTERNOON AT KPSM AND KPWM.

LONG TERM...MVFR OF LOWER CONDS PSBL LATE MON INTO TUE WITH SHRA
FROM COASTAL LOW PRES. THEN COLD FNT APPROACHES FROM THE W WITH
MVFR CONDS PSBL IN SHRA LATE TUE INTO WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS
SHIFT ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN....AND SEAS IN THE OPEN WATERS CONTINUE AT 3-4 FT IN
SWELL.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BUILD ABOVE 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
TUE LASTING INTO WED...AS LOW PRES PASSES SE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTERNOON RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. EXPECT GOOD RECOVERY
TONIGHT...AND HIGHER RH VALUES ON MONDAY...AS MOIST AIR AND
EVENTUALLY RAIN MOVE IN MON NIGHT OR TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...CEMPA

000
FXUS61 KBOX 200707
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
305 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY ALONG WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE COAST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
THEN LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
245 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF CIRRUS CLOUDS HAS SLOWLY MOVED ACROSS E CT/RI/SE MA SINCE
02Z AS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT OR CALM WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS SITS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT 06Z.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT...THOUGH DEWPTS ARE
STILL PROBLEMATIC. READINGS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...THOUGH MAINLY
IN THE 40S EXCEPT FOR A FEW LOW 50S. WITH THE HIGHER THAN FORECAST
DEWPTS AND TEMPS FALLING THANKS TO RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY FROM TODAY
ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS ORIGINALLY MODELED. ANTICIPATE HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S INLAND WITH A FEW SPOTS
POSSIBLY MAKING IT TO 85 DEGREES. IN CONTRAST THE LIGHT PRES
GRADIENT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEA BREEZES ALONG ALL COASTS WHERE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 65 TO 75 DEGREES. EXPECT SKIES
TO REMAIN CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
SHOWING UP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED PATTERN OF ONE OR MORE LOW
PRES CENTERS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BEGIN TO BE A PLAYER
IN OUR WEATHER. EXPECT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUDS TO WORK ITS WAY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND BELIEVE THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY DRIZZLE REACHING THE SOUTH COAST
LATE AT NIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE ELEVATED
SUNDAY NIGHT AND GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EXCEPT ACROSS FAR
NW MA AND SW NH WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD
AT NIGHT MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN RISING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OVER THE COOLER
WATER TEMPERATURES SETTING THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. BOTH THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE ARE BULLISH
ON BRINGING STRATUS AND FOG ONTO THE S COAST LATE SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF SHOWERS MON AND MON NIGHT
* SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER TUE-WED BUT A WASHOUT IS NOT
  EXPECTED
* DRY WEATHER LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE COMING WORK WEEK

7 PM UPDATE...REFER TO NHC FOR LATEST INFO ON FIRST TROPICAL
STORM OF THE SEASON...ALBERTO. THE LOW PRES CENTER DEPICTED BY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ON A TRACK PASSING NEAR OR JUST SE OF THE
BENCHMARK EARLY TUE MORNING MAY CONSTITUTE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM ALBERTO.

DETAILS FROM SAT LATE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE PRESENCE OF
MULTIPLE LOW PRES CENTERS OFF THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC COAST
COMPLICATES THE PICTURE TO SOME DEGREE...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
SOUTHERNMOST LOW CENTER HAS DEVELOPED A CONCENTRATED AREA OF
CONVECTION NEAR ITS CIRCULATION CENTER AND TAKEN ON WARM CORE
CHARACTERISTICS. WOULD EXPECT THAT THE NUMERICAL PREDICTION CENTER
MODELS MIGHT BE CHALLENGED SOME TO RESOLVE A DEVELOPING WARM CORE
SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS...THE VARIOUS MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW
PRES CENTER WITH HIGH THETA-E VALUES NEAR ITS CENTER PASSING JUST SE
OF THE BENCHMARK LATE MON NIGHT. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THIS
SYSTEM IS MORE TROPICAL OR EXTRATROPICAL AS IT APPROACHES OUR
LATITUDE. THE SENSIBLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER IS LIKELY TO SIMILAR
EITHER WAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY...POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS DEPENDING UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK. THE
12Z ECMWF DEPICTS A HEAVY AREA OF RAIN THAT MAY BRUSH THE CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. THIS SOLUTION IS NOT TOO FAR FROM WHAT THE 12Z GFS
DEPICTS AND MAY BE ALONG THE LINES OF WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS.
ALTHOUGH NOT SHOWN IN THE MODEL OUTPUTS...WONDER IF THERE MIGHT BE
AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE THAT DEPRESSES RAINFALL MON NIGHT WELL TO THE
NW OF THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH SIGNS OF A DEFORMATION AXIS IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS MAY COUNTERACT THAT. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT IT IS
TRICKY AS TO HOW MUCH QPF TO FORECAST MON NIGHT AND IT IS STILL TOO
SOON TO BE CONFIDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ANY SURFACE LOW CENTER.

THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT...ALBEIT TIGHT WIND
FIELD. MOST OF THAT WIND MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT TOO SOON TO BE
SURE. NE OR N GUSTS TO 25 OR 30 KT NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR ACK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD EARLY TUE MORNING BUT AGAIN WILL DEPEND
UPON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRUCTURE OF THE LOW PRES PASSING BY.
CHANCES ARE WHATEVER WIND FIELD EXISTS ON THE NW SIDE WILL DROP
OFF RAPIDLY AS IS TYPICAL WITH ACCELERATING TROPICAL AND
EXTRATROPICAL LOWS TURNING NE.

FOR TEMPERATURES MON AND MON NIGHT...HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF MAV
AND MET BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS. EXPECT RELATIVELY MODEST DIURNAL
RANGES WITH THE CLOUDS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK UPLIFT WOULD APPEAR
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY WED...THINKING IT MIGHT NOT BE SO
WET AS JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF GMOS AND
TEMPS THAT WOULD BE IMPLIED FROM THE ECMWF MODEL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. APPEARS THAT
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP WEST COAST TROF SHOULD RESULT IN DRY AND WARM
SENSIBLE WEATHER. IN FACT...SATURDAY MAY TURN OUT TO BE VERY WARM
WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF 18+C VERY PLAUSIBLE. THE GFS QUITE
AGGRESSIVELY AND THE ECMWF NOT QUITE SO ROBUSTLY ATTEMPT TO SLIDE
A COLD FRONT SOUTH THRU NEW ENGLAND LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT BUT VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS FEATURE SO FAR OUT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE
AREA. FOR NOW HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARM AND DRY SIDE THRU SAT
WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.  MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG
AT A FEW OF THE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE AIRPORT LOCATIONS LIKE KORE OR
KEEN.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS. ANY LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL
IMPROVE BY 14Z. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COAST WITH LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START FOR ALL AREAS. MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE IN ACROSS S
RI/S COASTAL MA IN STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN
MOVES N THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCT SHOWERS ALSO MOVE IN FROM S-N.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR-IFR ACROSS THE REGION AS SHOWERS AND AREAS
OF FOG CONTINUE TO MOVE N...LOWEST ALONG THE COAST WITH LOCAL LIFR
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR-MVFR ACROSS SW NH/NW MA. GENERAL
E-SE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
12Z MONDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MAINLY IN
CIGS BUT PATCHY FOG AS WELL. EXPECT SEA BREEZE DURING THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN GENERAL E-SE WINDS FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AROUND
APPROACHING LOW PRES. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS WORKING N TO THE AIRPORT
BY DAYBREAK MON. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS/LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG.

LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MAY
BE MIXED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF VFR OR BECOMING VFR ALL AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
1025 PM UPDATE...
NOTED HIGH SOUTH SWELLS STILL PROPAGATING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...
UP TO 7 FEET AT BUOYS 44097 AND 44008 AT 02Z. ADJUSTED SEAS JUST A
TAD...OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED EAST
OF THE CAROLINA COAST DUE TO PERSISTENT LOW PRES THERE AND
REASONABLY SIGNIFICANT S TO SE FETCH. SWELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE NORTH INTO OUR SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. NOTED 5 TO 8 FT
SWELLS INTO THE OUTER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. UP TO 7 FT SE OF BID
AND 5 FT A MILE S OF THE MVY COASTLINE. HAVE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IN SPACE TO INCLUDE RI SOUND AND PORTIONS OF BLOCK
ISLAND SOUND...AND HAVE EXPANDED IN TIME THROUGH SUN NIGHT. EXPECT
THE SWELLS TO ALSO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG EXPOSED S COAST BEACHES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SCA SEAS
ALONG EXPOSED S COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS DEVELOP ALONG EXPOSED E
COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF STRONG SCA GUSTS OR
EVEN MARGINAL GALE GUSTS NEAR AND SE OF NANTUCKET LATE MON NIGHT
AND TUE MORNING...DEPENDING UPON EXACT TRACK OF LOW. THERE IS
ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEAS REACHING ABOVE 10 FEET FOR A TIME
MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING S AND E OF NANTUCKET. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED. IN HWO SUGGESTED THAT MARINERS PAY EXTRA ATTENTION TO
FORECASTS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH PLANS TO
SAIL TO GEORGES BANK AND OTHER OFFSHORE WATERS. THE OTHER CONCERN
WILL BE FOR SOME FOG TO AFFECT THE WATERS DUE TO CONSIDERABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...EVT/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...EVT/THOMPSON
MARINE...EVT/THOMPSON

000
FXUS61 KBOX 200236
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1035 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY ALONG WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE COAST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
THEN LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1025 PM UPDATE...
BANDS OF HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUES TO SPIN INTO S RI/SE MA
AS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE LOOP...OTHERWISE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AT 02Z. WINDS HAVE BEEN DROPPING
OFF TO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM AT MOST LOCATIONS. WHERE SKIES ARE
CLEAR...TEMPS ARE STARTING TO FALL BACK THROUGH THE 50S WITH LOWEST
READING AT KPVC ALREADY DOWN TO 50.

NOTED TEMPS RUNNING WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 01Z AND 02Z SO
ADJUSTED TO BRING READINGS CURRENT. WIDE RANGE OF DEWPTS AS
WELL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN PLACE...EXPECT DEWPTS TO FALL BACK
AS TEMPS DROP OVERNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO TRY AND REFLECT THIS
THOUGH EXPECT WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS/DEWPTS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORMAL
RADIATOR LOCATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS HAS
WARMED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT. ANTICIPATE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE LOWER 50S IN URBAN AREAS AND IN THE 40S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY FROM TODAY
ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS ORIGINALLY MODELED. ANTICIPATE HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S INLAND WITH A FEW SPOTS
POSSIBLY MAKING IT TO 85 DEGREES. IN CONTRAST THE LIGHT PRES
GRADIENT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEA BREEZES ALONG ALL COASTS WHERE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 65 TO 75 DEGREES. EXPECT SKIES
TO REMAIN CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
SHOWING UP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED PATTERN OF ONE OR MORE LOW
PRES CENTERS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BEGIN TO BE A PLAYER
IN OUR WEATHER. EXPECT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUDS TO WORK ITS WAY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND BELIEVE THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY DRIZZLE REACHING THE SOUTH COAST
LATE AT NIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE ELEVATED
SUNDAY NIGHT AND GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EXCEPT ACROSS FAR
NW MA AND SW NH WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD
AT NIGHT MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN RISING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OVER THE COOLER
WATER TEMPERATURES SETTING THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. BOTH THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE ARE BULLISH
ON BRINGING STRATUS AND FOG ONTO THE S COAST LATE SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF SHOWERS MON AND MON NIGHT
* SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER TUE-WED BUT A WASHOUT IS NOT
  EXPECTED
* DRY WEATHER LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE COMING WORK WEEK

7 PM UPDATE...REFER TO NHC FOR LATEST INFO ON FIRST TROPICAL
STORM OF THE SEASON...ALBERTO. THE LOW PRES CENTER DEPICTED BY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ON A TRACK PASSING NEAR OR JUST SE OF THE
BENCHMARK EARLY TUE MORNING MAY CONSTITUTE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM ALBERTO.

DETAILS FROM SAT LATE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE PRESENCE OF
MULTIPLE LOW PRES CENTERS OFF THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC COAST
COMPLICATES THE PICTURE TO SOME DEGREE...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
SOUTHERNMOST LOW CENTER HAS DEVELOPED A CONCENTRATED AREA OF
CONVECTION NEAR ITS CIRCULATION CENTER AND TAKEN ON WARM CORE
CHARACTERISTICS. WOULD EXPECT THAT THE NUMERICAL PREDICTION CENTER
MODELS MIGHT BE CHALLENGED SOME TO RESOLVE A DEVELOPING WARM CORE
SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS...THE VARIOUS MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW
PRES CENTER WITH HIGH THETA-E VALUES NEAR ITS CENTER PASSING JUST SE
OF THE BENCHMARK LATE MON NIGHT. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THIS
SYSTEM IS MORE TROPICAL OR EXTRATROPICAL AS IT APPROACHES OUR
LATITUDE. THE SENSIBLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER IS LIKELY TO SIMILAR
EITHER WAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY...POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS DEPENDING UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK. THE
12Z ECMWF DEPICTS A HEAVY AREA OF RAIN THAT MAY BRUSH THE CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. THIS SOLUTION IS NOT TOO FAR FROM WHAT THE 12Z GFS
DEPICTS AND MAY BE ALONG THE LINES OF WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS.
ALTHOUGH NOT SHOWN IN THE MODEL OUTPUTS...WONDER IF THERE MIGHT BE
AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE THAT DEPRESSES RAINFALL MON NIGHT WELL TO THE
NW OF THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH SIGNS OF A DEFORMATION AXIS IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS MAY COUNTERACT THAT. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT IT IS
TRICKY AS TO HOW MUCH QPF TO FORECAST MON NIGHT AND IT IS STILL TOO
SOON TO BE CONFIDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ANY SURFACE LOW CENTER.

THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT...ALBEIT TIGHT WIND
FIELD. MOST OF THAT WIND MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT TOO SOON TO BE
SURE. NE OR N GUSTS TO 25 OR 30 KT NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR ACK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD EARLY TUE MORNING BUT AGAIN WILL DEPEND
UPON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRUCTURE OF THE LOW PRES PASSING BY.
CHANCES ARE WHATEVER WIND FIELD EXISTS ON THE NW SIDE WILL DROP
OFF RAPIDLY AS IS TYPICAL WITH ACCELERATING TROPICAL AND
EXTRATROPICAL LOWS TURNING NE.

FOR TEMPERATURES MON AND MON NIGHT...HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF MAV
AND MET BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS. EXPECT RELATIVELY MODEST DIURNAL
RANGES WITH THE CLOUDS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK UPLIFT WOULD APPEAR
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY WED...THINKING IT MIGHT NOT BE SO
WET AS JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF GMOS AND
TEMPS THAT WOULD BE IMPLIED FROM THE ECMWF MODEL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. APPEARS THAT
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP WEST COAST TROF SHOULD RESULT IN DRY AND WARM
SENSIBLE WEATHER. IN FACT...SATURDAY MAY TURN OUT TO BE VERY WARM
WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF 18+C VERY PLAUSIBLE. THE GFS QUITE
AGGRESSIVELY AND THE ECMWF NOT QUITE SO ROBUSTLY ATTEMPT TO SLIDE
A COLD FRONT SOUTH THRU NEW ENGLAND LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT BUT VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS FEATURE SO FAR OUT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE
AREA. FOR NOW HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARM AND DRY SIDE THRU SAT
WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...NO REAL CHANGE SINCE LAST AFD ISSUANCE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SEA BREEZES
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE DROPS TO MODERATE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT. AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS LIKELY WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST WITH POSSIBLY AREAS OF IFR CIGS FROM STRATUS AND MVFR OR IFR
VSBYS IN AREAS OF FOG FORMING. LOW CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN SPREADING
NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT PROBABLY REMAINING S OF BOS-BAF LINE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
UNTIL MON MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE
PERSISTING INTO AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. SEA BREEZE BECOMING
ESTABLISHED AGAIN BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS WORKING THEIR WAY NORTH
TO BDL BY DAYBREAK MON.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS/LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG.

LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MAY
BE MIXED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF VFR OR BECOMING VFR ALL AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
1025 PM UPDATE...
NOTED HIGH SOUTH SWELLS STILL PROPAGATING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...
UP TO 7 FEET AT BUOYS 44097 AND 44008 AT 02Z. ADJUSTED SEAS JUST A
TAD...OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED EAST
OF THE CAROLINA COAST DUE TO PERSISTENT LOW PRES THERE AND
REASONABLY SIGNIFICANT S TO SE FETCH. SWELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE NORTH INTO OUR SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. NOTED 5 TO 8 FT
SWELLS INTO THE OUTER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. UP TO 7 FT SE OF BID
AND 5 FT A MILE S OF THE MVY COASTLINE. HAVE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IN SPACE TO INCLUDE RI SOUND AND PORTIONS OF BLOCK
ISLAND SOUND...AND HAVE EXPANDED IN TIME THROUGH SUN NIGHT. EXPECT
THE SWELLS TO ALSO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG EXPOSED S COAST BEACHES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SCA SEAS
ALONG EXPOSED S COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS DEVELOP ALONG EXPOSED E
COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF STRONG SCA GUSTS OR
EVEN MARGINAL GALE GUSTS NEAR AND SE OF NANTUCKET LATE MON NIGHT
AND TUE MORNING...DEPENDING UPON EXACT TRACK OF LOW. THERE IS
ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEAS REACHING ABOVE 10 FEET FOR A TIME
MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING S AND E OF NANTUCKET. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED. IN HWO SUGGESTED THAT MARINERS PAY EXTRA ATTENTION TO
FORECASTS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH PLANS TO
SAIL TO GEORGES BANK AND OTHER OFFSHORE WATERS. THE OTHER CONCERN
WILL BE FOR SOME FOG TO AFFECT THE WATERS DUE TO CONSIDERABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...EVT/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...THOMPSON
MARINE...EVT/THOMPSON

000
FXUS61 KBOX 192333
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
733 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY ALONG WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE COAST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
THEN LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
QUIET NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...JUST A FEW BANDS
OF THIN CIRRUS OVER SE MA AND SOUTHERN RI. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS A
LITTLE AS RUNNING HIGHER THAN FORECAST AT THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...AS
SUN SETS...THINK WE WILL SEE A FAIRLY RAPID TEMP DROP GIVEN THE
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. THE AIR
MASS HAS WARMED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT.
NONETHELESS...DEWPOINTS REMAIN ONLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S MOST
LOCATIONS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE FAIRLY OPTIMUM
TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE LOWER 50S IN URBAN
AREAS AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY FROM TODAY ALTHOUGH NOT
QUITE AS MUCH AS ORIGINALLY MODELED. ANTICIPATE HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S INLAND WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY MAKING
IT TO 85 DEGREES. IN CONTRAST THE LIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SEA BREEZES ALONG ALL COASTS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE 65 TO 75 DEGREES. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR OR
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOWING UP ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED PATTERN OF ONE OR MORE LOW
PRES CENTERS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BEGIN TO BE A PLAYER
IN OUR WEATHER. EXPECT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUDS TO WORK ITS WAY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND BELIEVE THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY DRIZZLE REACHING THE SOUTH COAST
LATE AT NIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE ELEVATED
SUNDAY NIGHT AND GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EXCEPT ACROSS FAR
NW MA AND SW NH WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD
AT NIGHT MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN RISING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OVER THE COOLER
WATER TEMPERATURES SETTING THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. BOTH THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE ARE BULLISH
ON BRINGING STRATUS AND FOG ONTO THE S COAST LATE SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF SHOWERS MON AND MON NIGHT
* SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER TUE-WED BUT A WASHOUT IS NOT
  EXPECTED
* DRY WEATHER LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE COMING WORK WEEK

7 PM UPDATE...REFER TO NHC FOR LATEST INFO ON FIRST TROPICAL
STORM OF THE SEASON...ALBERTO. THE LOW PRES CENTER DEPICTED BY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ON A TRACK PASSING NEAR OR JUST SE OF THE
BENCHMARK EARLY TUE MORNING MAY CONSTITUTE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM ALBERTO.

DETAILS FROM SAT LATE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE PRESENCE OF
MULTIPLE LOW PRES CENTERS OFF THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC COAST
COMPLICATES THE PICTURE TO SOME DEGREE...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
SOUTHERNMOST LOW CENTER HAS DEVELOPED A CONCENTRATED AREA OF
CONVECTION NEAR ITS CIRCULATION CENTER AND TAKEN ON WARM CORE CHARACTERISTICS.
WOULD EXPECT THAT THE NUMERICAL PREDICTION CENTER MODELS MIGHT BE
CHALLENGED SOME TO RESOLVE A DEVELOPING WARM CORE SYSTEM.
NEVERTHELESS...THE VARIOUS MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW PRES
CENTER WITH HIGH THETA-E VALUES NEAR ITS CENTER PASSING JUST SE OF
THE BENCHMARK LATE MON NIGHT. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THIS
SYSTEM IS MORE TROPICAL OR EXTRATROPICAL AS IT APPROACHES OUR
LATITUDE. THE SENSIBLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER IS LIKELY TO SIMILAR
EITHER WAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY...POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS DEPENDING UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK. THE 12Z
ECMWF DEPICTS A HEAVY AREA OF RAIN THAT MAY BRUSH THE CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. THIS SOLUTION IS NOT TOO FAR FROM WHAT THE 12Z GFS
DEPICTS AND MAY BE ALONG THE LINES OF WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS.
ALTHOUGH NOT SHOWN IN THE MODEL OUTPUTS...WONDER IF THERE MIGHT BE
AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE THAT DEPRESSES RAINFALL MON NIGHT WELL TO
THE NW OF THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH SIGNS OF A DEFORMATION AXIS IN THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS MAY COUNTERACT THAT. THE BOTTOMLINE IS THAT IT
IS TRICKY AS TO HOW MUCH QPF TO FORECAST MON NIGHT AND IT IS STILL
TOO SOON TO BE CONFIDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ANY SURFACE LOW
CENTER.

THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT...ALBEIT TIGHT WIND
FIELD. MOST OF THAT WIND MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT TOO SOON TO BE
SURE. NE OR N GUSTS TO 25 OR 30 KT NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR ACK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD EARLY TUE MORNING BUT AGAIN WILL DEPEND
UPON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRUCTURE OF THE LOW PRES PASSING BY.
CHANCES ARE WHATEVER WIND FIELD EXISTS ON THE NW SIDE WILL DROP
OFF RAPIDLY AS IS TYPICAL WITH ACCELERATING TROPICAL AND
EXTRATROPICAL LOWS TURNING NE.

FOR TEMPERATURES MON AND MON NIGHT...HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF MAV
AND MET BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS. EXPECT RELATIVELY MODEST DIURNAL
RANGES WITH THE CLOUDS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK UPLIFT WOULD APPEAR
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY WED...THINKING IT MIGHT NOT BE SO
WET AS JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF GMOS AND
TEMPS THAT WOULD BE IMPLIED FROM THE ECMWF MODEL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. APPEARS THAT
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN
ANOMOUSLY DEEP WEST COAST TROF SHOULD RESULT IN DRY AND WARM
SENSIBLE WEATHER. IN FACT...SATURDAY MAY TURN OUT TO BE VERY WARM
WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF 18+C VERY PLAUSIBLE. THE GFS QUITE
AGGRESSIVELY AND THE ECMWF NOT QUITE SO ROBUSTLY ATTEMPT TO SLIDE
A COLD FRONT SOUTH THRU NEW ENGLAND LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT BUT VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS FEATURE SO FAR OUT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE
AREA. FOR NOW HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARM AND DRY SIDE THRU SAT
WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...NO REAL CHANGE SINCE LAST AFD ISSUANCE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SEA BREEZES
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE DROPS TO MODERATE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT. AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS LIKELY WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST WITH POSSIBLY AREAS OF IFR CIGS FROM STRATUS AND MVFR OR IFR
VSBYS IN AREAS OF FOG FORMING. LOW CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN SPREADING
NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT PROBABLY REMAINING S OF BOS-BAF LINE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
UNTIL MON MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE
PERSISTING INTO AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. SEA BREEZE BECOMING
ESTABLISHED AGAIN BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS WORKING THEIR WAY NORTH
TO BDL BY DAYBREAK MON.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS/LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG.

LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MAY
BE MIXED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF VFR OR BECOMING VFR ALL AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED EAST
OF THE CAROLINA COAST DUE TO PERSISTENT LOW PRES THERE AND
REASONABLY SIGNIFICANT S TO SE FETCH. SWELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROPAGE NORTH INTO OUR SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. NOTED 5 TO 8 FT
SWELLS INTO THE OUTER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. UP TO 7 FT SE OF BID
AND 5 FT A MILE S OF THE MVY COASTLINE. HAVE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IN SPACE TO INCLUDE RI SOUND AND PORTIONS OF BLOCK
ISLAND SOUND...AND HAVE EXPANDED IN TIME THROUGH SUN NIGHT. EXPECT
THE SWELLS TO ALSO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG EXPOSED S COAST BEACHES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SCA SEAS
ALONG EXPOSED S COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS DEVELOP ALONG EXPOSED E
COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF STRONG SCA GUSTS OR
EVEN MARGINAL GALE GUSTS NEAR AND SE OF NANTUCKET LATE MON NIGHT
AND TUE MORNING...DEPENDING UPON EXACT TRACK OF LOW. THERE IS
ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEAS REACHING ABOVE 10 FEET FOR A TIME
MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING S AND E OF NANTUCKET. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED. IN HWO SUGGESTED THAT MARINERS PAY EXTRA ATTENTION TO
FORECASTS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH PLANS TO
SAIL TO GEORGES BANK AND OTHER OFFSHORE WATERS. THE OTHER CONCERN
WILL BE FOR SOME FOG TO AFFECT THE WATERS DUE TO CONSIDERABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...THOMPSON
MARINE...THOMPSON

000
FXUS61 KBOX 192108
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
508 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY ALONG WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE COAST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
THEN LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS HAS
WARMED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT.
NONETHELESS...DEWPOINTS REMAIN ONLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S MOST
LOCATIONS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE FAIRLY OPTIMUM
TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE LOWER 50S IN URBAN
AREAS AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY FROM TODAY ALTHOUGH NOT
QUITE AS MUCH AS ORIGINALLY MODELED. ANTICIPATE HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S INLAND WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY MAKING
IT TO 85 DEGREES. IN CONTRAST THE LIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SEA BREEZES ALONG ALL COASTS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE 65 TO 75 DEGREES. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR OR
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOWING UP ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED PATTERN OF ONE OR MORE LOW
PRES CENTERS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BEGIN TO BE A PLAYER
IN OUR WEATHER. EXPECT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUDS TO WORK ITS WAY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND BELIEVE THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY DRIZZLE REACHING THE SOUTH COAST
LATE AT NIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE ELEVATED
SUNDAY NIGHT AND GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EXCEPT ACROSS FAR
NW MA AND SW NH WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD
AT NIGHT MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN RISING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OVER THE COOLER
WATER TEMPERATURES SETTING THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF SHOWERS MON AND MON NIGHT
* SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER TUE-WED BUT A WASHOUT IS NOT
  EXPECTED
* DRY WEATHER LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE COMING WORK WEEK

DETAILS...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE PRESENCE OF
MULTIPLE LOW PRES CENTERS OFF THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC COAST
COMPLICATES THE PICTURE TO SOME DEGREE...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
SOUTHERNMOST LOW CENTER HAS DEVELOPED A CONCENTRATED AREA OF
CONVECTION NEAR ITS CIRCULATION CENTER AND TAKEN ON WARM CORE CHARACTERISTICS.
WOULD EXPECT THAT THE NUMERICAL PREDICTION CENTER MODELS MIGHT BE
CHALLENGED SOME TO RESOLVE A DEVELOPING WARM CORE SYSTEM.
NEVERTHELESS...THE VARIOUS MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW PRES
CENTER WITH HIGH THETA-E VALUES NEAR ITS CENTER PASSING JUST SE OF
THE BENCHMARK LATE MON NIGHT. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THIS
SYSTEM IS MORE TROPICAL OR EXTRATROPICAL AS IT APPROACHES OUR
LATITUDE. THE SENSIBLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER IS LIKELY TO SIMILAR
EITHER WAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. THE 12Z ECMWF DEPICTS A HEAVY AREA
OF RAIN THAT MAY BRUSH THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. THIS SOLUTION IS
NOT TOO FAR FROM WHAT THE 12Z GFS DEPICTS AND MAY BE ALONG THE
LINES OF WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS. ALTHOUGH NOT SHOWN IN THE MODEL
OUTPUTS...WONDER IF THERE MIGHT BE AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE THAT
DEPRESSES RAINFALL MON NIGHT WELL TO THE NW OF THE
CENTER...ALTHOUGH SIGNS OF A DEFORMATION AXIS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS MAY COUNTERACT THAT. THE BOTTOMLINE IS THAT IT IS TRICKY AS
TO HOW MUCH QPF TO FORECAST MON NIGHT AND IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO
BE CONFIDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ANY SURFACE LOW CENTER.

FOR TEMPERATURES MON AND MON NIGHT...HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF MAV
AND MET BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS. EXPECT RELATIVELY MODEST DIURNAL
RANGES WITH THE CLOUDS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK UPLIFT WOULD APPEAR
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY WED...THINKING IT MIGHT NOT BE SO
WET AS JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF GMOS AND
TEMPS THAT WOULD BE IMPLIED FROM THE ECMWF MODEL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. APPEARS THAT
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN
ANOMOUSLY DEEP WEST COAST TROF SHOULD RESULT IN DRY AND WARM
SENSIBLE WEATHER. IN FACT...SATURDAY MAY TURN OUT TO BE VERY WARM
WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF 18+C VERY PLAUSIBLE. THE GFS QUITE
AGGRESSIVELY AND THE ECMWF NOT QUITE SO ROBUSTLY ATTEMPT TO SLIDE
A COLD FRONT SOUTH THRU NEW ENGLAND LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT BUT VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS FEATURE SO FAR OUT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE
AREA. FOR NOW HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARM AND DRY SIDE THRU SAT
WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE DROPS TO MODERATE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN
NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH POSSIBLY AREAS OF IFR CIGS FROM STRATUS
AND MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN AREAS OF FOG FORMING. LOW CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN SPREADING NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT PROBABLY REMAINING S OF
BOS-BAF LINE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
UNTIL MON MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE
PERSISTING INTO AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. SEA BREEZE BECOMING
ESTABLISHED AGAIN BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS WORKING THEIR WAY NORTH
TO BDL BY DAYBREAK MON.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS/LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG.

LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MAY
BE MIXED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF VFR OR BECOMING VFR ALL AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED EAST
OF THE CAROLINA COAST DUE TO PERSISTENT LOW PRES THERE AND
REASONABLY SIGNIFICANT S TO SE FETCH. SWELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROPAGE NORTH INTO OUR SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. NOTED 5 TO 8 FT
SWELLS INTO THE OUTER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. UP TO 7 FT SE OF BID
AND 5 FT A MILE S OF THE MVY COASTLINE. HAVE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IN SPACE TO INCLUDE RI SOUND AND PORTIONS OF BLOCK
ISLAND SOUND...AND HAVE EXPANDED IN TIME THROUGH SUN NIGHT. EXPECT
THE SWELLS TO ALSO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG EXPOSED S COAST BEACHES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SCA SEAS
ALONG EXPOSED S COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS DEVELOP ALONG EXPOSED E
COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF STRONG SCA GUSTS
NEAR AND SE OF NANTUCKET LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING. THERE IS
ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEAS REACHING ABOVE 10 FEET FOR A TIME
MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING S AND E OF NANTUCKET. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED. SUGGEST MARINERS PAY EXTRA ATTENTION TO FORECASTS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH PLANS TO SAIL TO GEORGES
BANK AND OTHER OFFSHORE WATERS. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR
SOME FOG TO AFFECT THE WATERS DUE TO CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...THOMPSON
MARINE...THOMPSON

000
FXUS61 KBOX 192031
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
431 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY ALONG WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE COAST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
THEN LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS HAS
WARMED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT.
NONETHELESS...DEWPOINTS REMAIN ONLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S MOST
LOCATIONS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE FAIRLY OPTIMUM
TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE LOWER 50S IN URBAN
AREAS AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY FROM TODAY ALTHOUGH NOT
QUITE AS MUCH AS ORIGINALLY MODELED. ANTICIPATE HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S INLAND WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY MAKING
IT TO 85 DEGREES. IN CONTRAST THE LIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SEA BREEZES ALONG ALL COASTS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE 65 TO 75 DEGREES. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR OR
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOWING UP ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED PATTERN OF ONE OR MORE LOW
PRES CENTERS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BEGIN TO BE A PLAYER
IN OUR WEATHER. EXPECT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUDS TO WORK ITS WAY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND BELIEVE THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY DRIZZLE REACHING THE SOUTH COAST
LATE AT NIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE ELEVATED
SUNDAY NIGHT AND GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EXCEPT ACROSS FAR
NW MA AND SW NH WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD
AT NIGHT MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN RISING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OVER THE COOLER
WATER TEMPERATURES SETTING THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF SHOWERS EXPECTED MON AND MON NIGHT
* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE-WED BUT A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED
* DRY WEATHER LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK

DETAILS...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OF COURSE THE EXACT TRACK IS UNCERTAIN...BUT
PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MON INTO MON NIGHT. HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE ITS ORIGIN IN
THE CARIBBEAN AND PWAT VALUES MAY EXCEED 1.5 INCHES.
THEREFORE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST. ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD MONDAY/S HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS.  HOWEVER...A WASHOUT IS NOT
EXPECTED AND MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME WILL PROBABLY BE DRY.  HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 70S...EXCEPT ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP IT A BIT COOLER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO RESULT IN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT...RISING HEIGHT FIELDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS
WELL UP INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 INLAND FROM THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE DROPS TO MODERATE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN
NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH POSSIBLY AREAS OF IFR CIGS FROM STRATUS
AND MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN AREAS OF FOG FORMING. LOW CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN SPREADING NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT PROBABLY REMAINING S OF
BOS-BAF LINE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
UNTIL MON MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE
PERSISTING INTO AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. SEA BREEZE BECOMING
ESTABLISHED AGAIN BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS WORKING THEIR WAY NORTH
TO BDL BY DAYBREAK MON.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS/LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
PATCHES.

LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  VFR MAY BE MIXED WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND A FEW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED EAST
OF THE CAROLINA COAST DUE TO PERSISTENT LOW PRES THERE AND
REASONABLY SIGNIFICANT S TO SE FETCH. SWELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROPAGE NORTH INTO OUR SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. NOTED 5 TO 8 FT
SWELLS INTO THE OUTER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. UP TO 7 FT SE OF BID
AND 5 FT A MILE S OF THE MVY COASTLINE. HAVE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IN SPACE TO INCLUDE RI SOUND AND PORTIONS OF BLOCK
ISLAND SOUND...AND HAVE EXPANDED IN TIME THROUGH SUN NIGHT. EXPECT
THE SWELLS TO ALSO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG EXPOSED S COAST BEACHES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WILL PROBABLY SEE A PERIOD OF SCA SEAS ACROSS
AT LEAST THE OUTER-WATERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FROM PERSISTENT
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND SWELL FROM COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.  A
PERIOD OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS IS ALSO LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR SOME
FOG TO AFFECT THE WATERS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...FRANK/THOMPSON
AVIATION...THOMPSON
MARINE...THOMPSON

000
FXUS61 KGYX 191854
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
254 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STALLED WEST-EAST BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS REMAIN TO THE
AREA TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. CLEAR AND
COOL TONIGHT UNDER RIDGE WITH SCATTERED VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING IN
THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH 850
MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THEN
TODAY...EXPECT LITTLE OR NO DIFFERENCE IN COASTAL TEMPERATURES AS
FLOW GOES ONSHORE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. INLAND SECTIONS
HOWEVER SHOULD EASILY REACH AND EXCEED THE 80F MARK.

THE RIDGE HOLDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THEN TONIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING THE 60S ALONG
THE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING
DEW POINTS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL ALONG THE COAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE IS SQUEEZED EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FIRST ALONG THE COAST AND
THEN WILL SHIFT INLAND. A WEAK SHORT WAVE/FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THE LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY AFTER ANOTHER WARM DAY.

THE GFS IS INDICATING SOME CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT COULD
RESULT IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

850 MB TEMPERATURES REALLY RAMP UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN AT ALL LEVELS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR MOST
OF NH AND MAINE. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS HERE AND THERE AS WEAK
WAVES PASS BY...BUT THEY ARE TOO INSIGNIFICANT TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z MONDAY/...MAINLY VFR. VLY FOG POSSIBLE
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT KLEB/KCON...THEN AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BLO SCA THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM...SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT OR MORE
TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES CLOSE
BY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT TOMORROW...WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ES/HANES

000
FXUS61 KBOX 191751
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
151 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP
THE COAST WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION MON AND MON
NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER TUE AND WED...BUT A WASHOUT IS NOT
EXPECTED.  DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE JUST MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. WELL ESTABLISHED SEA
BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MID LVL TEMPS AND LLVL DWPTS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE RISE AS WELL.
H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO ABOUT +10C BY AFTERNOON...THEN
+12C BY EVENING. FULL MAY SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW BL MIXING TO REACH
THIS LVL EASILY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. THIS IS LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...MUCH LIKE
FRI...WEAK E GRADIENT FLOW...AS WELL AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL
KEEP NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS COOLER...ADVECTING IN MARINE AIRMASS
COOLED BY LOW 50F SST AIR. THEREFORE...COASTAL LOCATION WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMING FURTHER AS ONE MOVES
INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH HIGH PRES AND MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGING STILL IN CONTROL THE
WEAK FLOW AND NEARLY SKC CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAD COOLING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH MID LVL TEMPS AND SFC DWPTS
CONTINUING TO RISE /GENERALLY INTO THE MID 40S/ RAD COOLING WOULD
ONLY ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE MID 40S IN COOLEST LOCATIONS.
TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S ARE LIKELY IN THE MORE DENSELY POPULATED
METROS. GIVEN THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE...CAN/T RULE
OUT SOME ISOLD FOG...PARTICULARLY IN COOLEST VALLEYS WHERE RAD
COOLING WOULD BE MAXIMIZED.

SUNDAY...
HIGH PRES CENTER BEGINS SLIGHTLY FASTER MIGRATION E AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SRN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
N WITHIN THE MEAN RIDGE. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO FAVOR
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL WITH A DRY COLUMN AND A SLIGHT HINT AT
CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE. THEREFORE...THE DRY WX WILL CONTINUE. MAY
SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND POSSIBLY EVEN MID CLOUDINESS LATE IN
THE DAY FROM THE S AS THE ENERGY MOVES N.

MID LVL TEMPS AND SFC DWPTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE RIDGE IS FED
WITH WARM AIRMASS. H85 TEMPS WILL LIKELY REACH CLOSER TO +14C BY
LATE IN THE DAY...AND MIXING SHOULD AGAIN REACH THIS LVL.
THEREFORE...WARMER AREAS SUCH AS THE CT VALLEY WOULD WARM TO THE
MID 80S BY PEAK HEATING. GRADIENT FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A SE
DIRECTION. HOWEVER WITH BOTH A S AND E COMPONENT EXPECTED...MARINE
AIR WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS...KEEPING THEM
COOLER THAN FULL MIXING WOULD SUGGEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF SHOWERS EXPECTED MON AND MON NIGHT
* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE-WED BUT A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED
* DRY WEATHER LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS.
THIS WILL ALLOW SOME LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES.  MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOP BY
DAYBREAK.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OF COURSE THE EXACT TRACK IS
UNCERTAIN...BUT PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MON INTO MON NIGHT.
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES.  THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE ITS
ORIGIN IN THE CARIBBEAN AND PWAT VALUES MAY EXCEED 1.5 INCHES.
THEREFORE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST.  ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD MONDAY/S HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS.  HOWEVER...A WASHOUT IS NOT
EXPECTED AND MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME WILL PROBABLY BE DRY.  HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 70S...EXCEPT ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP IT A BIT COOLER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO RESULT IN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT...RISING HEIGHT FIELDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS
WELL UP INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 INLAND FROM THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE PERSISTING INTO AT LEAST
EARLY EVENING. SEA BREEZE BECOMING ESTABLISHED AGAIN BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS TO
START. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE TO MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST LATE.

MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS/LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES.

LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  VFR MAY BE MIXED WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND A FEW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS. CONTINUING TO SEE A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT AT KACK.
AGREE WITH PRIOR FORECAST REASONING THAT SHOULD BE DIFFICULT TO
HAVE GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO LOWER MIXING
DEPTH OVER THE COLDER WATER.

SIGNIFICANT 5 TO 8 FOOT SWELL TO PERSIST OVER OUTER SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS. FOR ANYONE IN THE WATER FOR WHATEVER REASON...A MODERATE
TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG THE EXPOSED
SOUTH COAST TODAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WILL PROBABLY SEE A PERIOD OF SCA SEAS ACROSS
AT LEAST THE OUTER-WATERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FROM PERSISTENT
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND SWELL FROM COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.  A
PERIOD OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS IS ALSO LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR SOME
FOG TO AFFECT THE WATERS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK/DOODY/THOMPSON
MARINE...BELK/FRANK/THOMPSON

000
FXUS61 KGYX 191620
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1220 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1215 PM...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO 1ST PERIOD SKY COVER AND
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE.


920 AM...1024 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER VERMONT AT 13Z WITH
A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE ROOFTOP OF MAINE. I ADDED SOME CLOUD COVER TO FAR NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE MAINE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
AND 1ST PERIOD TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR UPDATE. THE 12Z KGYX RAOB
SUPPORTS 80F WITH FULL SUN...WHICH SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR MOST
COMMUNITIES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE OUR LIGHT
SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNS ONSHORE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAV A GUD DAY.

0630...JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY/TEMPS TO BETTER MATCH UP WITH
CURRENT OBS.  ENJOY THE DAY!

PREVIOUSLY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG THIS
MORNING...WILL BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL WARM SPRING DAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT...AND SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE W-SW GRADIENT
FLOW...WHICH WILL DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE SEA BREEZE ON THE COAST
A BIT...ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE WARMER MIDDAY MAXES THERE AS WELL.
INLAND HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES WITH SOME
READINGS AROUND 80 IN THE SRN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
500MB REX BLOCKING...WITH RIDGING OVER NERN CONUS...WILL HOLD
THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CLEAR AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THRU THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE A BETTER CHC FOR VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT...GIVEN HIGHER TDS AND ANOTHER CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT. MIGHT
SEE A BIT OF THICKER CI MOVE ACROSS NRN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
LOTS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ROUGHLY 2-4 F
WARMER THAN TODAY...WHICH WOULD MEAN MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST WILL SEE AT LEAST 80...AND SOME LOW TO MID 80S POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SRN NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATE MON RIDGING...SFC AND ALOFT...BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT
OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN FROM LOW PRES RIDING UP THE
EAST COAST TO SPREAD S TO N ACROSS THE CWA. SFC RIDGING WILL TRY
AND HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SO EXPECT SO DRY AIR TO ERODE
THE LEADING EDGE OF RAFL AND THE PCPN SHIELD TO SLOW DOWN SOME
MON. BY MON NGT RAFL SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE THE FAR NRN MTNS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH...AND APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES.
PUSHING +2 SD ANOMALY FOR THIS AREA...THIS WOULD MEAN SOME HEAVY
RAFL COULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PCPN MON NGT AND TUE. AHEAD OF A
COLD FNT APPROACHING FROM THE W ON TUE...SOME HIGHER LAPSE RATES
WILL WORK IN ALOFT. INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER...BUT AN
ISOLD TSTM WILL BE PSBL.

GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE TIMING AND PUSH OF THE COLD FNT. WITH THE
19/00Z GFS QUICKER TO CLEAR THE COAST. PREFERRED THE 18/12Z ECMWF
TIMING AS IT WAS A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. BEYOND
THAT TIME FNT MAY STALL NEAR THE SRN CWA. THIS COULD KEEP A FEW
MORE CLOUDS AND SCHC SHRA AROUND...BUT HAVE LEFT THE FCST DRY
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU THE WEEKEND. VLY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS MORNING AT KLEB/LCON...BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHC FOR IT
TONIGHT. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL AGAIN SEE FLOW SHIFT ONSHORE AND
PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN SHRA LATE MON THRU
WED. ISOLD TSTMS LOOK PSBL TUE AHEAD OF COLD FNT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BLO SCA THRESHOLDS...BUT AFTER SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY...WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SWELL INCREASE TO AROUND 4 FT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THANKS TO NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRES OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES
LOOK TO FALL TO AROUND 30PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES

000
FXUS61 KBOX 191459
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1059 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP
THE COAST WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION MON AND MON
NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER TUE AND WED...BUT A WASHOUT IS NOT
EXPECTED.  DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. DID MAKE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED WIND DIRECTION ALONG THE EAST COAST TO
MORE OF A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AROUND BOSTON HARBOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MID LVL TEMPS AND LLVL DWPTS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE RISE AS WELL.
H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO ABOUT +10C BY AFTERNOON...THEN
+12C BY EVENING. FULL MAY SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW BL MIXING TO REACH
THIS LVL EASILY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. THIS IS LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...MUCH LIKE
FRI...WEAK E GRADIENT FLOW...AS WELL AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL
KEEP NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS COOLER...ADVECTING IN MARINE AIRMASS
COOLED BY LOW 50F SST AIR. THEREFORE...COASTAL LOCATION WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMING FURTHER AS ONE MOVES
INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH HIGH PRES AND MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGING STILL IN CONTROL THE
WEAK FLOW AND NEARLY SKC CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAD COOLING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH MID LVL TEMPS AND SFC DWPTS
CONTINUING TO RISE /GENERALLY INTO THE MID 40S/ RAD COOLING WOULD
ONLY ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE MID 40S IN COOLEST LOCATIONS.
TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S ARE LIKELY IN THE MORE DENSELY POPULATED
METROS. GIVEN THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE...CAN/T RULE
OUT SOME ISOLD FOG...PARTICULARLY IN COOLEST VALLEYS WHERE RAD
COOLING WOULD BE MAXIMIZED.

SUNDAY...
HIGH PRES CENTER BEGINS SLIGHTLY FASTER MIGRATION E AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SRN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
N WITHIN THE MEAN RIDGE. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO FAVOR
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL WITH A DRY COLUMN AND A SLIGHT HINT AT
CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE. THEREFORE...THE DRY WX WILL CONTINUE. MAY
SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND POSSIBLY EVEN MID CLOUDINESS LATE IN
THE DAY FROM THE S AS THE ENERGY MOVES N.

MID LVL TEMPS AND SFC DWPTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE RIDGE IS FED
WITH WARM AIRMASS. H85 TEMPS WILL LIKELY REACH CLOSER TO +14C BY
LATE IN THE DAY...AND MIXING SHOULD AGAIN REACH THIS LVL.
THEREFORE...WARMER AREAS SUCH AS THE CT VALLEY WOULD WARM TO THE
MID 80S BY PEAK HEATING. GRADIENT FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A SE
DIRECTION. HOWEVER WITH BOTH A S AND E COMPONENT EXPECTED...MARINE
AIR WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS...KEEPING THEM
COOLER THAN FULL MIXING WOULD SUGGEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF SHOWERS EXPECTED MON AND MON NIGHT
* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE-WED BUT A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED
* DRY WEATHER LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS.
THIS WILL ALLOW SOME LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES.  MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOP BY
DAYBREAK.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OF COURSE THE EXACT TRACK IS
UNCERTAIN...BUT PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MON INTO MON NIGHT.
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES.  THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE ITS
ORIGIN IN THE CARIBBEAN AND PWAT VALUES MAY EXCEED 1.5 INCHES.
THEREFORE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST.  ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD MONDAY/S HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS.  HOWEVER...A WASHOUT IS NOT
EXPECTED AND MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME WILL PROBABLY BE DRY.  HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 70S...EXCEPT ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP IT A BIT COOLER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO RESULT IN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT...RISING HEIGHT FIELDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS
WELL UP INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 INLAND FROM THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS MORNING WITH WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE LINGERING INTO THIS
EVENING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS MAY EVENTUALLY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE.

MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS/LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES.

LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  VFR MAY BE MIXED WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND A FEW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS. SEEING A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT AT KACK. DID NOT
BRING GUSTS TO 25 KT TO THE COASTAL WATERS AS MIXING DEPTH SHOULD
BE LESS OVER THE COLDER WATER. WEAKER AND SHIFTING FLOW SUN MAY
ALLOW THIS SWELL TO SUBSIDE BRIEFLY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WILL PROBABLY SEE A PERIOD OF SCA SEAS ACROSS
AT LEAST THE OUTER-WATERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FROM PERSISTENT
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND SWELL FROM COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.  A
PERIOD OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS IS ALSO LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR SOME
FOG TO AFFECT THE WATERS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY/FRANK
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/DOODY/FRANK

000
FXUS61 KGYX 191332
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
932 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

920 AM...1024 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER VERMONT AT 13Z WITH
A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE ROOFTOP OF MAINE. I ADDED SOME CLOUD COVER TO FAR NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE MAINE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
AND 1ST PERIOD TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR UPDATE. THE 12Z KGYX RAOB
SUPPORTS 80F WITH FULL SUN...WHICH SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR MOST
COMMUNITIES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE OUR LIGHT
SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNS ONSHORE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAV A GUD DAY.

0630...JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY/TEMPS TO BETTER MATCH UP WITH
CURRENT OBS.  ENJOY THE DAY!

PREVIOUSLY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG THIS
MORNING...WILL BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL WARM SPRING DAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT...AND SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE W-SW GRADIENT
FLOW...WHICH WILL DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE SEA BREEZE ON THE COAST
A BIT...ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE WARMER MIDDAY MAXES THERE AS WELL.
INLAND HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES WITH SOME
READINGS AROUND 80 IN THE SRN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
500MB REX BLOCKING...WITH RIDGING OVER NERN CONUS...WILL HOLD
THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CLEAR AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THRU THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE A BETTER CHC FOR VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT...GIVEN HIGHER TDS AND ANOTHER CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT. MIGHT
SEE A BIT OF THICKER CI MOVE ACROSS NRN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
LOTS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ROUGHLY 2-4 F
WARMER THAN TODAY...WHICH WOULD MEAN MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST WILL SEE AT LEAST 80...AND SOME LOW TO MID 80S POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SRN NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATE MON RIDGING...SFC AND ALOFT...BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT
OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN FROM LOW PRES RIDING UP THE
EAST COAST TO SPREAD S TO N ACROSS THE CWA. SFC RIDGING WILL TRY
AND HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SO EXPECT SO DRY AIR TO ERODE
THE LEADING EDGE OF RAFL AND THE PCPN SHIELD TO SLOW DOWN SOME
MON. BY MON NGT RAFL SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE THE FAR NRN MTNS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH...AND APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES.
PUSHING +2 SD ANOMALY FOR THIS AREA...THIS WOULD MEAN SOME HEAVY
RAFL COULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PCPN MON NGT AND TUE. AHEAD OF A
COLD FNT APPROACHING FROM THE W ON TUE...SOME HIGHER LAPSE RATES
WILL WORK IN ALOFT. INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER...BUT AN
ISOLD TSTM WILL BE PSBL.

GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE TIMING AND PUSH OF THE COLD FNT. WITH THE
19/00Z GFS QUICKER TO CLEAR THE COAST. PREFERRED THE 18/12Z ECMWF
TIMING AS IT WAS A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. BEYOND
THAT TIME FNT MAY STALL NEAR THE SRN CWA. THIS COULD KEEP A FEW
MORE CLOUDS AND SCHC SHRA AROUND...BUT HAVE LEFT THE FCST DRY
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU THE WEEKEND. VLY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS MORNING AT KLEB/LCON...BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHC FOR IT
TONIGHT. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL AGAIN SEE FLOW SHIFT ONSHORE AND
PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN SHRA LATE MON THRU
WED. ISOLD TSTMS LOOK PSBL TUE AHEAD OF COLD FNT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BLO SCA THRESHOLDS...BUT AFTER SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY...WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SWELL INCREASE TO AROUND 4 FT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THANKS TO NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRES OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES
LOOK TO FALL TO AROUND 30PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES

000
FXUS61 KBOX 191108
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP
THE COAST WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION MON AND MON
NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER TUE AND WED...BUT A WASHOUT IS NOT
EXPECTED.  DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...
SUNNY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
RISE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MID LVL TEMPS AND LLVL DWPTS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE RISE AS WELL.
H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO ABOUT +10C BY AFTERNOON...THEN
+12C BY EVENING. FULL MAY SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW BL MIXING TO REACH
THIS LVL EASILY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. THIS IS LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...MUCH LIKE
FRI...WEAK E GRADIENT FLOW...AS WELL AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL
KEEP NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS COOLER...ADVECTING IN MARINE AIRMASS
COOLED BY LOW 50F SST AIR. THEREFORE...COASTAL LOCATION WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMING FURTHER AS ONE MOVES
INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH HIGH PRES AND MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGING STILL IN CONTROL THE
WEAK FLOW AND NEARLY SKC CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAD COOLING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH MID LVL TEMPS AND SFC DWPTS
CONTINUING TO RISE /GENERALLY INTO THE MID 40S/ RAD COOLING WOULD
ONLY ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE MID 40S IN COOLEST LOCATIONS.
TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S ARE LIKELY IN THE MORE DENSELY POPULATED
METROS. GIVEN THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE...CAN/T RULE
OUT SOME ISOLD FOG...PARTICULARLY IN COOLEST VALLEYS WHERE RAD
COOLING WOULD BE MAXIMIZED.

SUNDAY...
HIGH PRES CENTER BEGINS SLIGHTLY FASTER MIGRATION E AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SRN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
N WITHIN THE MEAN RIDGE. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO FAVOR
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL WITH A DRY COLUMN AND A SLIGHT HINT AT
CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE. THEREFORE...THE DRY WX WILL CONTINUE. MAY
SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND POSSIBLY EVEN MID CLOUDINESS LATE IN
THE DAY FROM THE S AS THE ENERGY MOVES N.

MID LVL TEMPS AND SFC DWPTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE RIDGE IS FED
WITH WARM AIRMASS. H85 TEMPS WILL LIKELY REACH CLOSER TO +14C BY
LATE IN THE DAY...AND MIXING SHOULD AGAIN REACH THIS LVL.
THEREFORE...WARMER AREAS SUCH AS THE CT VALLEY WOULD WARM TO THE
MID 80S BY PEAK HEATING. GRADIENT FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A SE
DIRECTION. HOWEVER WITH BOTH A S AND E COMPONENT EXPECTED...MARINE
AIR WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS...KEEPING THEM
COOLER THAN FULL MIXING WOULD SUGGEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF SHOWERS EXPECTED MON AND MON NIGHT
* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE-WED BUT A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED
* DRY WEATHER LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS.
THIS WILL ALLOW SOME LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES.  MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOP BY
DAYBREAK.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OF COURSE THE EXACT TRACK IS
UNCERTAIN...BUT PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MON INTO MON NIGHT.
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES.  THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE ITS
ORIGIN IN THE CARIBBEAN AND PWAT VALUES MAY EXCEED 1.5 INCHES.
THEREFORE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST.  ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD MONDAY/S HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS.  HOWEVER...A WASHOUT IS NOT
EXPECTED AND MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME WILL PROBABLY BE DRY.  HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 70S...EXCEPT ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP IT A BIT COOLER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO RESULT IN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT...RISING HEIGHT FIELDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS
WELL UP INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 INLAND FROM THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS MORNING WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST SEA BREEZE SHIFTING TO EAST BY NOON AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS MAY EVENTUALLY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE.

MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS/LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES.

LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  VFR MAY BE MIXED WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND A FEW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY.

SWELL HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO BUILD THIS MORNING THAN
FORECAST...HOWEVER...WITH SOME FAR OFFSHORE BUOYS SUGGESTING +5 FT
SWELLS...FEEL THAT SRN OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE DAY TODAY. REACHING 5 FT WITH THE BUILDING SWELL AND ASSISTED
BY LONG ELY FETCH. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN TIMING OF SCA AS IT
STANDS. WEAKER AND SHIFTING FLOW SUN MAY ALLOW THE SWELL TO SUBSIDE
BRIEFLY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WILL PROBABLY SEE A PERIOD OF SCA SEAS ACROSS
AT LEAST THE OUTER-WATERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FROM PERSISTENT
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND SWELL FROM COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.  A
PERIOD OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS IS ALSO LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR SOME
FOG TO AFFECT THE WATERS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
SUNDAY      FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...DOODY/FRANK
MARINE...DOODY/FRANK

000
FXUS61 KGYX 191032
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
632 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
0630...JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY/TEMPS TO BETTER MATCH UP WITH
CURRENT OBS.  ENJOY THE DAY!

PREVIOUSLY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG THIS
MORNING...WILL BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL WARM SPRING DAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT...AND SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE W-SW GRADIENT
FLOW...WHICH WILL DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE SEA BREEZE ON THE COAST
A BIT...ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE WARMER MIDDAY MAXES THERE AS WELL.
INLAND HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES WITH SOME
READINGS AROUND 80 IN THE SRN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
500MB REX BLOCKING...WITH RIDGING OVER NERN CONUS...WILL HOLD
THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CLEAR AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THRU THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE A BETTER CHC FOR VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT...GIVEN HIGHER TDS AND ANOTHER CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT. MIGHT
SEE A BIT OF THICKER CI MOVE ACROSS NRN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
LOTS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ROUGHLY 2-4 F
WARMER THAN TODAY...WHICH WOULD MEAN MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST WILL SEE AT LEAST 80...AND SOME LOW TO MID 80S POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SRN NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATE MON RIDGING...SFC AND ALOFT...BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT
OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN FROM LOW PRES RIDING UP THE
EAST COAST TO SPREAD S TO N ACROSS THE CWA. SFC RIDGING WILL TRY
AND HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SO EXPECT SO DRY AIR TO ERODE
THE LEADING EDGE OF RAFL AND THE PCPN SHIELD TO SLOW DOWN SOME
MON. BY MON NGT RAFL SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE THE FAR NRN MTNS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH...AND APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES.
PUSHING +2 SD ANOMALY FOR THIS AREA...THIS WOULD MEAN SOME HEAVY
RAFL COULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PCPN MON NGT AND TUE. AHEAD OF A
COLD FNT APPROACHING FROM THE W ON TUE...SOME HIGHER LAPSE RATES
WILL WORK IN ALOFT. INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER...BUT AN
ISOLD TSTM WILL BE PSBL.

GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE TIMING AND PUSH OF THE COLD FNT. WITH THE
19/00Z GFS QUICKER TO CLEAR THE COAST. PREFERRED THE 18/12Z ECMWF
TIMING AS IT WAS A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. BEYOND
THAT TIME FNT MAY STALL NEAR THE SRN CWA. THIS COULD KEEP A FEW
MORE CLOUDS AND SCHC SHRA AROUND...BUT HAVE LEFT THE FCST DRY
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU THE WEEKEND. VLY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS MORNING AT KLEB/LCON...BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHC FOR IT
TONIGHT. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL AGAIN SEE FLOW SHIFT ONSHORE AND
PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN SHRA LATE MON THRU
WED. ISOLD TSTMS LOOK PSBL TUE AHEAD OF COLD FNT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BLO SCA THRESHOLDS...BUT AFTER SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY...WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SWELL INCREASE TO AROUND 4 FT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THANKS TO NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRES OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES
LOOK TO FALL TO AROUND 30PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 190817
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
416 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP
THE COAST WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION MON AND MON
NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER TUE AND WED...BUT A WASHOUT IS NOT
EXPECTED.  DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REST JUST E OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NE CONUS AND SRN
CANADA IN RESPONSE TO WRN LONGWAVE TROF. THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH HAS ERODED THE CI SHIELD OF THE SHORE OF THE
CAPE...YIELDING SKC CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE
DAY TODAY.  THEREFORE...THE DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS PERSIST.

WITH THE HIGH TO THE E AND BUILDING MID LVL RIDGING...MID LVL
TEMPS AND LLVL DWPTS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE RISE AS WELL. H85
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO ABOUT +10C BY AFTERNOON...THEN
+12C BY EVENING. FULL MAY SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW BL MIXING TO
REACH THIS LVL EASILY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S. THIS IS LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...MUCH
LIKE FRI...WEAK E GRADIENT FLOW...AS WELL AS SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WILL KEEP NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS COOLER...ADVECTING IN
MARINE AIRMASS COOLED BY LOW 50F SST AIR. THEREFORE...COASTAL
LOCATION WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMING
FURTHER AS ONE MOVES INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH HIGH PRES AND MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGING STILL IN CONTROL THE
WEAK FLOW AND NEARLY SKC CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAD COOLING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH MID LVL TEMPS AND SFC DWPTS
CONTINUING TO RISE /GENERALLY INTO THE MID 40S/ RAD COOLING WOULD
ONLY ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE MID 40S IN COOLEST LOCATIONS.
TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S ARE LIKELY IN THE MORE DENSELY POPULATED
METROS. GIVEN THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE...CAN/T RULE
OUT SOME ISOLD FOG...PARTICULARLY IN COOLEST VALLEYS WHERE RAD
COOLING WOULD BE MAXIMIZED.

SUNDAY...
HIGH PRES CENTER BEGINS SLIGHTLY FASTER MIGRATION E AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SRN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
N WITHIN THE MEAN RIDGE. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO FAVOR
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL WITH A DRY COLUMN AND A SLIGHT HINT AT
CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE. THEREFORE...THE DRY WX WILL CONTINUE. MAY
SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND POSSIBLY EVEN MID CLOUDINESS LATE IN
THE DAY FROM THE S AS THE ENERGY MOVES N.

MID LVL TEMPS AND SFC DWPTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE RIDGE IS FED
WITH WARM AIRMASS. H85 TEMPS WILL LIKELY REACH CLOSER TO +14C BY
LATE IN THE DAY...AND MIXING SHOULD AGAIN REACH THIS LVL.
THEREFORE...WARMER AREAS SUCH AS THE CT VALLEY WOULD WARM TO THE
MID 80S BY PEAK HEATING. GRADIENT FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A SE
DIRECTION. HOWEVER WITH BOTH A S AND E COMPONENT EXPECTED...MARINE
AIR WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS...KEEPING THEM
COOLER THAN FULL MIXING WOULD SUGGEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF SHOWERS EXPECTED MON AND MON NIGHT
* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE-WED BUT A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED
* DRY WEATHER LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS.
THIS WILL ALLOW SOME LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES.  MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOP BY
DAYBREAK.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OF COURSE THE EXACT TRACK IS
UNCERTAIN...BUT PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MON INTO MON NIGHT.
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES.  THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE ITS
ORIGIN IN THE CARIBBEAN AND PWAT VALUES MAY EXCEED 1.5 INCHES.
THEREFORE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST.  ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD MONDAY/S HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS.  HOWEVER...A WASHOUT IS NOT
EXPECTED AND MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME WILL PROBABLY BE DRY.  HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 70S...EXCEPT ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP IT A BIT COOLER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO RESULT IN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT...RISING HEIGHT FIELDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS
WELL UP INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 INLAND FROM THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH SUNDAY.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND AGAIN
SAT NIGHT. DURING THE DAY...EXPECT LATE MORNING SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH E AND S COATS. MEAN E WIND WILL ASSIST E COAST
SEA BREEZE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AGAIN
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...E MEAN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE TO MOVE
INLAND AND OVER THE TERMINAL BY MORNING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXPECTING WINDS TO TURN TO THE BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS MAY EVENTUALLY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE.

MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS/LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES.

LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  VFR MAY BE MIXED WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND A FEW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY.

SWELL HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO BUILD THIS MORNING THAN
FORECAST...HOWEVER...WITH SOME FAR OFFSHORE BUOYS SUGGESTING +5 FT
SWELLS...FEEL THAT SRN OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE DAY TODAY. REACHING 5 FT WITH THE BUILDING SWELL AND ASSISTED
BY LONG ELY FETCH. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN TIMING OF SCA AS IT
STANDS. WEAKER AND SHIFTING FLOW SUN MAY ALLOW THE SWELL TO SUBSIDE
BRIEFLY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WILL PROBABLY SEE A PERIOD OF SCA SEAS ACROSS
AT LEAST THE OUTER-WATERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FROM PERSISTENT
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND SWELL FROM COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.  A
PERIOD OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS IS ALSO LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR SOME
FOG TO AFFECT THE WATERS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
SUNDAY      FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/FRANK
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...DOODY/FRANK
MARINE...DOODY/FRANK

000
FXUS61 KBOX 190725
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
325 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE COAST WILL LIKELY BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OUT OF EASTERN CANADA WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REST JUST E OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NE CONUS AND SRN
CANADA IN RESPONSE TO WRN LONGWAVE TROF. THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH HAS ERODED THE CI SHIELD OF THE SHORE OF THE
CAPE...YIELDING SKC CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE
DAY TODAY.  THEREFORE...THE DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS PERSIST.

WITH THE HIGH TO THE E AND BUILDING MID LVL RIDGING...MID LVL
TEMPS AND LLVL DWPTS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE RISE AS WELL. H85
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO ABOUT +10C BY AFTERNOON...THEN
+12C BY EVENING. FULL MAY SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW BL MIXING TO
REACH THIS LVL EASILY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S. THIS IS LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...MUCH
LIKE FRI...WEAK E GRADIENT FLOW...AS WELL AS SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WILL KEEP NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS COOLER...ADVECTING IN
MARINE AIRMASS COOLED BY LOW 50F SST AIR. THEREFORE...COASTAL
LOCATION WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMING
FURTHER AS ONE MOVES INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH HIGH PRES AND MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGING STILL IN CONTROL THE
WEAK FLOW AND NEARLY SKC CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAD COOLING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH MID LVL TEMPS AND SFC DWPTS
CONTINUING TO RISE /GENERALLY INTO THE MID 40S/ RAD COOLING WOULD
ONLY ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE MID 40S IN COOLEST LOCATIONS.
TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S ARE LIKELY IN THE MORE DENSELY POPULATED
METROS. GIVEN THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE...CAN/T RULE
OUT SOME ISOLD FOG...PARTICULARLY IN COOLEST VALLEYS WHERE RAD
COOLING WOULD BE MAXIMIZED.

SUNDAY...
HIGH PRES CENTER BEGINS SLIGHTLY FASTER MIGRATION E AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SRN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
N WITHIN THE MEAN RIDGE. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO FAVOR
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL WITH A DRY COLUMN AND A SLIGHT HINT AT
CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE. THEREFORE...THE DRY WX WILL CONTINUE. MAY
SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND POSSIBLY EVEN MID CLOUDINESS LATE IN
THE DAY FROM THE S AS THE ENERGY MOVES N.

MID LVL TEMPS AND SFC DWPTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE RIDGE IS FED
WITH WARM AIRMASS. H85 TEMPS WILL LIKELY REACH CLOSER TO +14C BY
LATE IN THE DAY...AND MIXING SHOULD AGAIN REACH THIS LVL.
THEREFORE...WARMER AREAS SUCH AS THE CT VALLEY WOULD WARM TO THE
MID 80S BY PEAK HEATING. GRADIENT FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A SE
DIRECTION. HOWEVER WITH BOTH A S AND E COMPONENT EXPECTED...MARINE
AIR WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS...KEEPING THEM
COOLER THAN FULL MIXING WOULD SUGGEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPS SUNDAY
* SHOWERS LIKELY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
* MORE DRY WEATHER FORECAST TO RETURN BY LATE NEXT WEEK

MODEL DISCUSSION AND PREFERENCES...
APPEARS THAT THE SPLIT UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL MERGE INTO A LARGE LONG WAVE RIDGE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO QUEBEC BY MID WEEK IN RESPONSE TO LONG WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN STATES. A BROAD UPPER CUTOFF LOW...A
REX BLOCK OF SORTS...WILL CONTINUE TO SIT AND SPIN ACROSS THE MID
ATLC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TRACKS OF SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WIDENS BY LATE WEEK...MAINLY DUE TO THE GFS
TRYING TO BREAK DOWN THE LONG WAVE BLOCKING PATTERN BY LATE NEXT
WEEK...MUCH QUICKER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. PAST HISTORY HAS SHOWN THAT
MODELS TRY TO BREAK DOWN BLOCKING PATTERNS TOO QUICKLY ESPECIALLY
FURTHER OUT IN TIME. ALSO NOTING DIFFERENCES BEYOND MONDAY IN TIMING
AND TRACK OF SURFACE SYSTEM...ALBEIT WEAK...ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST
WITH THE WEAK UPPER FLOW. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT OF SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKS LIKE
BEST SHOT OF PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME...THOUGH SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE
APPROACH OF SURFACE HIGH PRES OUT OF QUEBEC.

USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF WITH HPC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH A BIT
OF THE 12Z GFS EARLY ON UNTIL THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGED
BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

DETAILS...
SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING INVERTED TROUGH/WEAK
LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND S OF NEW ENGLAND WHILE HIGH PRES
NOSES ACROSS THE REGION. SOME CLOUDS MAY SNEAK IN FROM S-N DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DOWN THE COAST TRIES TO MIGRATE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. WITH WEAK SURFACE WINDS...EXPECT SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS AWAY FROM THE
SHORE TO REACH INTO THE LOWER AND POSSIBLE MID 80S ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE CT VALLEY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW SPINNING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY TOWARD THE REGION...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP
ARRIVING LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STILL SOME TRACK ISSUES
AMONGST THE MODEL SUITE...BUT ALL GENERALLY TREND THE LOW SLOWLY NE.
WITH GOOD ONSHORE FLOW AND PW VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES OR SO THROUGH
THIS TIMEFRAME...MAY SEE SOME LOCALLY BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
BEST SHOT ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OCCURS.  ALSO NOTED SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH TQ
VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS. DID MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THOUGH
LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION WILL BE DURING MONDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN A BIT DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 70S...THOUGH COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...SLOW IMPROVEMENT WORKING IN AS PRECIP MOVES NE WHILE A
COLD FRONT STARTS TO WORKS IN FROM NY STATE AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
CLOUDS WILL LINGER...BUT HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP EXCEPT FOR S NH/W
MA EARLY IN THE DAY. HAVE KEPT IN MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST AREAS AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN VICINITY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE S COAST EARLY THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS OUT OF QUEBEC.  BOUNDARY MAY LINGER S OF NEW
ENGLAND FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THURSDAY...SO CAN NOT RULE OUT A WIDELY
SCT SHOWER ALONG THE S COAST AND INTO N CT. EXPECT DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH SUNDAY.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND AGAIN
SAT NIGHT. DURING THE DAY...EXPECT LATE MORNING SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH E AND S COATS. MEAN E WIND WILL ASSIST E COAST
SEA BREEZE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AGAIN
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...E MEAN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE TO MOVE
INLAND AND OVER THE TERMINAL BY MORNING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXPECTING WINDS TO TURN TO THE BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
LOWER IN PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY IN SHOWERS/LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES. LOW PROB OF
ISOLD THUNDER MAINLY ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY
SEE LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS W MA/N CT.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY.

SWELL HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO BUILD THIS MORNING THAN
FORECAST...HOWEVER...WITH SOME FAR OFFSHORE BUOYS SUGGESTING +5 FT
SWELLS...FEEL THAT SRN OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE DAY TODAY. REACHING 5 FT WITH THE BUILDING SWELL AND ASSISTED
BY LONG ELY FETCH. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN TIMING OF SCA AS IT
STANDS. WEAKER AND SHIFTING FLOW SUN MAY ALLOW THE SWELL TO
SUBSIDE BRIEFLY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY E-SE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS
MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES WILL APPROACH
THE SOUTHERN WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...THOUGH REMAINS WEAK. NOT
EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WINDS...GUSTS MAY REACH AROUND 20 KT.
SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT DUE TO CONTINUED ONSHORE FETCH ON THE
OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT A GENERAL S-SW WIND
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE BELOW
5 FT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44013 IN MASS BAY WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE AROUND JUNE
19TH...PENDING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT
EQUIPMENT...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KGYX 190703
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING...WILL BE ANOTHER
BEAUTIFUL WARM SPRING DAY. WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT...AND SHOULD
SEE SLIGHTLY MORE W-SW GRADIENT FLOW...WHICH WILL DELAY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SEA BREEZE ON THE COAST A BIT...ALLOWING FOR A
LITTLE WARMER MIDDAY MAXES THERE AS WELL. INLAND HIGHS SHOULD BE
WELL INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES WITH SOME READINGS AROUND 80 IN THE
SRN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
500MB REX BLOCKING...WITH RIDGING OVER NERN CONUS...WILL HOLD
THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CLEAR AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THRU THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE A BETTER CHC FOR VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT...GIVEN HIGHER TDS AND ANOTHER CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT. MIGHT
SEE A BIT OF THICKER CI MOVE ACROSS NRN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
LOTS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ROUGHLY 2-4 F
WARMER THAN TODAY...WHICH WOULD MEAN MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST WILL SEE AT LEAST 80...AND SOME LOW TO MID 80S POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SRN NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATE MON RIDGING...SFC AND ALOFT...BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT
OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN FROM LOW PRES RIDING UP THE
EAST COAST TO SPREAD S TO N ACROSS THE CWA. SFC RIDGING WILL TRY
AND HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SO EXPECT SO DRY AIR TO ERODE
THE LEADING EDGE OF RAFL AND THE PCPN SHIELD TO SLOW DOWN SOME
MON. BY MON NGT RAFL SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE THE FAR NRN MTNS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH...AND APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES.
PUSHING +2 SD ANOMALY FOR THIS AREA...THIS WOULD MEAN SOME HEAVY
RAFL COULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PCPN MON NGT AND TUE. AHEAD OF A
COLD FNT APPROACHING FROM THE W ON TUE...SOME HIGHER LAPSE RATES
WILL WORK IN ALOFT. INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER...BUT AN
ISOLD TSTM WILL BE PSBL.

GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE TIMING AND PUSH OF THE COLD FNT. WITH THE
19/00Z GFS QUICKER TO CLEAR THE COAST. PREFERRED THE 18/12Z ECMWF
TIMING AS IT WAS A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. BEYOND
THAT TIME FNT MAY STALL NEAR THE SRN CWA. THIS COULD KEEP A FEW
MORE CLOUDS AND SCHC SHRA AROUND...BUT HAVE LEFT THE FCST DRY
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU THE WEEKEND. VLY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS MORNING AT KLEB/LCON...BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHC FOR IT
TONIGHT. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL AGAIN SEE FLOW SHIFT ONSHORE AND
PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN SHRA LATE MON THRU
WED. ISOLD TSTMS LOOK PSBL TUE AHEAD OF COLD FNT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BLO SCA THRESHOLDS...BUT AFTER SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY...WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SWELL INCREASE TO AROUND 4 FT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THANKS TO NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRES OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES
LOOK TO FALL TO AROUND 30PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...CEMPA