[top]
000
FXUS61 KPHI 210437
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1237 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM
THE EAST TONIGHT, THEN DISSIPATE MONDAY. DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK, LOW PRESSURE SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS
FOLLOWED BY TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND IT WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTH MAY ARRIVE SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE WESTWARD AND MOVE
INTO VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FLOW AROUND THIS LOW ALONG WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT. THE OVERALL FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME AS THE
GRADIENT SUBSIDES DUE TO THE LOW WEAKENING. HOWEVER, A PLUME OF
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE PW VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES OVERNIGHT.
THERE APPEARS TO BE AN IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE SURFACE LOW AND
THIS LOOKS TO BE WHAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON.
THIS RESULTS IN SHOWERS THAT EXPAND FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT. THIS AREA LOOKS TO
BE THE SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE AS OF
0130Z. THE OVERALL TIMING ON THIS HAS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE,
HOWEVER GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE SOME LOCAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE
QUITE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE POPS
INCREASE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT. BASED ON THE DEEPENING MOISTURE AND LOWERING CLOUD BASES,
SOME DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY FORECAST TO OCCUR, THEREFORE
JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER /ISOLATED/ WAS CARRIED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR AWHILE TONIGHT. MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION THAT IS WELL OFFSHORE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MDL SOLNS DIFFER A BIT ON PRECIP TOMORROW. WE WILL STILL BE
IMPACTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW, BUT IT WILL NOT BE A
COMPLETELY RAINY DAY BY ANY MEANS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS
AS PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW. AS A RESULT, THE MDLS
ARE HAVING THEIR DIFFS DETERMINING WHICH PDS WILL BE WET AND WHICH
ONES WILL BE DRY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE MORNING
COULD BE WETTER THAN THE AFTN, OVERALL. QPF SHOULD BE 0.50 INCHES
OR LESS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR EAST
AND WILL LIKELY NOT INFLUENCE OUR LAND AREAS. NEVERTHELESS, THE
WEATHER IS GOING TO BE RATHER UNSETTLED FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE
AS WELL AS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
LINGER IN OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ANTICIPATED.
A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO OUR VICINITY FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
GRADUALLY.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS A BIT REMOVED FROM THE OCEAN INFLUENCE. AS
A RESULT, WE WILL INDICATE AT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH DAYS, EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST.
WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY IN OR NEAR OR REGION ON
THURSDAY AND WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH OR LOW PASSING NEARBY OR
OVERHEAD, WE WILL AGAIN CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
DUE TO THE LIGHT ATMOSPHERIC FLOW, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY BE SLOW MOVING AND THEY
COULD LEAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT SOME LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A TREND TOWARD DRY WEATHER
ANTICIPATED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH
DRY AIR BUILDING INTO OUR REGION, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT,
THEREFORE THE LOWERING CLOUD BASES WILL MIGRATE INLAND. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS AND HOW LOW THE
CEILINGS END UP GETTING. AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
COOL, THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS IS ALREADY
OCCURRING WITH IFR CEILINGS IN THE KACY AREAS WITH MVFR TO THE
KPHL METRO AREA. THESE LOWERING CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD
AND WE BOUGHT ALL OF OUR TERMINALS DOWN TO MVFR THEN EVEN TO IFR,
WITH KABE AND KRDG SEEING THE LATTER LAST.
THERE WILL BE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS WELL GENERALLY FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THESE, HOWEVER GIVEN THE DEEPENING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT, LOCAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE WHAT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE
AND OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AS OF 0130Z. THE THUNDER
CHANCES SEEM TO BE RATHER LOW, THEREFORE NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED
AT THIS TIME. THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT GENERALLY TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS SOME DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH
WEAKENING. THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE DEEP ENOUGH ALREADY AND WITH
THE SURFACE DEW POINTS COMING UP SOME THAT SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED
EARLY THIS EVENING FROM ABOUT KACY TO KWWD. WE HAVE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IF THIS SPREADS INLAND, THEREFORE WE RESTRICTED IT AT
KACY TO NEAR KMIV FOR AWHILE TONIGHT.
FOR MONDAY, SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A
WEAKNESS IN THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG WITH AN ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE. THERE SHOULD BE LOWER CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A TOUCH OF FOG
IN THE MORNING ALONG WITH SHOWERS, THE THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE
SHOWERS FOR AWHILE. AGAIN, THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING
THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS. WHILE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT WIDESPREAD, THEREFORE
THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS, DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, EXCEPT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WIND SHOULD BE MAINLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND IT MAY FAVOR THE EAST TO SOUTH QUADRANT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SOUTH WIND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS. SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE LOWER DEL BAY...THE SCA
FLAG HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 12Z.
PROLONGED NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 5 FEET WITH THE HIGHER SETS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS DUE TO
A LONGER FETCH AND INITIALLY STRONGER WINDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A RESULT THROUGH MONDAY. THE WINDS WILL GUST
THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS, THEN
TEND TO DIMINISH SOME LATER TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO RELAX SOME.
OUTLOOK...
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERION FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 5 FEET
OR GREATER INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD, AS TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO
PASSES WELL TO OUR EAST. FOR NOW, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 600 AM TUESDAY.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WHILE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST MONDAY, IT IS FORECAST TO NOT
BE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, THE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE
SOMEWHAT LOWER. BASED ON THIS, WE CAME UP WITH A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS FOR MONDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE/OHARA
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO/OHARA
RIP CURRENTS...
000
FXUS61 KPHI 210145
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
945 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM
THE EAST TONIGHT, THEN DISSIPATE MONDAY. DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK, LOW PRESSURE SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS
FOLLOWED BY TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND IT WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTH MAY ARRIVE SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SOME FOG CONTINUES TO BE MENTIONED FOR AWHILE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
NEW JERSEY BASED ON SOME SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ALSO A SPOTTER
REPORT. OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING HOW LONG THE FOG LASTS OR
IF IT ADVECTS FARTHER INLAND AND BECOMES DENSE, THEREFORE WE JUST
RESTRICTED IT CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE EVENING FOR NOW. IT
APPEARS THE INITIAL DEEPER MOISTURE SURGE, HIGHER DEW POINTS AND
THE FLOW DIRECTLY INTO THE COAST IS HELPING TO DEVELOP THE LOCAL
FOG. WE BELIEVE FARTHER INLAND, IT WILL BE MOSTLY STRATUS. THE
HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE 01Z OBS AND SOME
INCORPORATION OF THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
WESTWARD AND MOVE INTO VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FLOW AROUND
THIS LOW ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL
MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. THE OVERALL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SOME AS THE GRADIENT SUBSIDES DUE TO THE LOW WEAKENING.
HOWEVER, A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA WITH THE
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE PW VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES OVERNIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND
THE SURFACE LOW AND THIS LOOKS TO BE WHAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON. THIS RESULTS IN SHOWERS THAT EXPAND FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE CWA DURING THE
NIGHT. THIS AREA LOOKS TO BE THE SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELAWARE AS OF 0130Z. THE OVERALL TIMING ON THIS HAS
SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE SOME
LOCAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT, THE POPS INCREASE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE
COURSE OF THE NIGHT. BASED ON THE DEEPENING MOISTURE AND LOWERING
CLOUD BASES, SOME DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY FORECAST TO OCCUR, THEREFORE
JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER /ISOLATED/ WAS CARRIED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR AWHILE TONIGHT GIVEN THAT
SOME CONVECTION CONTINUES OFF THE MARYLAND COAST AND IS MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD AS OF 0130Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MDL SOLNS DIFFER A BIT ON PRECIP TOMORROW. WE WILL STILL BE
IMPACTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW, BUT IT WILL NOT BE A
COMPLETELY RAINY DAY BY ANY MEANS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS
AS PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW. AS A RESULT, THE MDLS
ARE HAVING THEIR DIFFS DETERMINING WHICH PDS WILL BE WET AND WHICH
ONES WILL BE DRY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE MORNING
COULD BE WETTER THAN THE AFTN, OVERALL. QPF SHOULD BE 0.50 INCHES
OR LESS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR EAST
AND WILL LIKELY NOT INFLUENCE OUR LAND AREAS. NEVERTHELESS, THE
WEATHER IS GOING TO BE RATHER UNSETTLED FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE
AS WELL AS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
LINGER IN OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ANTICIPATED.
A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO OUR VICINITY FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
GRADUALLY.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS A BIT REMOVED FROM THE OCEAN INFLUENCE. AS
A RESULT, WE WILL INDICATE AT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH DAYS, EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST.
WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY IN OR NEAR OR REGION ON
THURSDAY AND WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH OR LOW PASSING NEARBY OR
OVERHEAD, WE WILL AGAIN CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
DUE TO THE LIGHT ATMOSPHERIC FLOW, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY BE SLOW MOVING AND THEY
COULD LEAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT SOME LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A TREND TOWARD DRY WEATHER
ANTICIPATED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH
DRY AIR BUILDING INTO OUR REGION, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT,
THEREFORE THE LOWERING CLOUD BASES WILL MIGRATE INLAND. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS AND HOW LOW THE
CEILINGS END UP GETTING. AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
COOL, THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS IS ALREADY
OCCURRING WITH IFR CEILINGS IN THE KACY AREAS WITH MVFR TO THE
KPHL METRO AREA. THESE LOWERING CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD
AND WE BOUGHT ALL OF OUR TERMINALS DOWN TO MVFR THEN EVEN TO IFR,
WITH KABE AND KRDG SEEING THE LATTER LAST.
THERE WILL BE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS WELL GENERALLY FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THESE, HOWEVER GIVEN THE DEEPENING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT, LOCAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE WHAT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE
AND OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AS OF 0130Z. THE THUNDER
CHANCES SEEM TO BE RATHER LOW, THEREFORE NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED
AT THIS TIME. THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT GENERALLY TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS SOME DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH
WEAKENING. THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE DEEP ENOUGH ALREADY AND WITH
THE SURFACE DEW POINTS COMING UP SOME THAT SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED
EARLY THIS EVENING FROM ABOUT KACY TO KWWD. WE HAVE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IF THIS SPREADS INLAND, THEREFORE WE RESTRICTED IT AT
KACY TO NEAR KMIV FOR AWHILE TONIGHT.
FOR MONDAY, SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A
WEAKNESS IN THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG WITH AN ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE. THERE SHOULD BE LOWER CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A TOUCH OF FOG
IN THE MORNING ALONG WITH SHOWERS, THE THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE
SHOWERS FOR AWHILE. AGAIN, THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING
THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS. WHILE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT WIDESPREAD, THEREFORE
THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS, DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, EXCEPT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WIND SHOULD BE MAINLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND IT MAY FAVOR THE EAST TO SOUTH QUADRANT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SOUTH WIND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS. SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WINDS ACROSS LOWER DELAWARE ARE STRONGEST MAINLY NEAR THE
LEWES AREA DUE TO THE NORTHEAST FETCH PROBABLY BEING ENHANCED SOME
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY HERE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT FOR NOW.
PROLONGED NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 5 FEET WITH THE HIGHER SETS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS DUE TO
A LONGER FETCH AND INITIALLY STRONGER WINDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A RESULT THROUGH MONDAY. THE WINDS WILL GUST
THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS, THEN
TEND TO DIMINISH SOME LATER TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO RELAX SOME.
OUTLOOK...
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERION FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 5 FEET
OR GREATER INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD, AS TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO
PASSES WELL TO OUR EAST. FOR NOW, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 600 AM TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES MAY NEAR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT IN UPPER
DELAWARE BAY. OTHERWISE, ALL OTHER AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNDER CRITERIA.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WHILE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST MONDAY, IT IS FORECAST TO NOT
BE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, THE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE
SOMEWHAT LOWER. BASED ON THIS, WE CAME UP WITH A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS FOR MONDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GORSE/HAYES
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE
000
FXUS61 KPHI 210028
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
828 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM
THE EAST TONIGHT, THEN DISSIPATE MONDAY. DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK, LOW PRESSURE SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS
FOLLOWED BY TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND IT WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTH MAY ARRIVE SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADJUST THE POPS A BIT AND ALSO
THE SKY COVER. IN ADDITION, SOME FOG WAS ADDED FOR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY BASED ON SOME SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
ALSO A SPOTTER REPORT. OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING HOW LONG THE
FOG LASTS OR IF IT ADVECT FARTHER INLAND, THEREFORE WE JUST
RESTRICTED IT CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE EVENING FOR NOW. IT
APPEARS THE INITIAL DEEPER MOISTURE SURGE, HIGHER DEW POINTS AND
THE FLOW DIRECTLY INTO THE COAST IS HELPING TO DEVELOP THE LOCAL
FOG. WE BELIEVE FARTHER INLAND, IT WILL BE MORE STRATUS. THE
HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE 00Z OBS AND SOME
INCORPORATION OF THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
WESTWARD AND MOVE INTO VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FLOW AROUND
THIS LOW ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL
MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. THE OVERALL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SOME AS THE GRADIENT SUBSIDES DUE TO THE LOW WEAKENING.
HOWEVER, A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA WITH THE
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE PW VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES OVERNIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND
THE SURFACE LOW AND THIS LOOKS TO BE WHAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON. THIS RESULTS IN SHOWERS THAT EXPAND FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE CWA DURING THE
NIGHT. THIS AREA LOOKS TO BE THE SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELAWARE AS OF 0000Z. THE OVERALL TIMING ON THIS HAS SOME
LOWER CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE SOME LOCAL
DOWNPOURS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT, THE POPS INCREASE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE
COURSE OF THE NIGHT.
THE MOISTENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS SPREADING
INLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL,
THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER FROM EAST TO WEST. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO OCCUR, THEREFORE JUST A CHC OF THUNDER WAS
MENTIONED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR AWHILE
TONIGHT GIVEN THAT SOME CONVECTION HAS BEEN TIED CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE LOW CENTER ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MDL SOLNS DIFFER A BIT ON PRECIP TOMORROW. WE WILL STILL BE
IMPACTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW, BUT IT WILL NOT BE A
COMPLETELY RAINY DAY BY ANY MEANS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS
AS PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW. AS A RESULT, THE MDLS
ARE HAVING THEIR DIFFS DETERMINING WHICH PDS WILL BE WET AND WHICH
ONES WILL BE DRY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE MORNING
COULD BE WETTER THAN THE AFTN, OVERALL. QPF SHOULD BE 0.50 INCHES
OR LESS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR EAST
AND WILL LIKELY NOT INFLUENCE OUR LAND AREAS. NEVERTHELESS, THE
WEATHER IS GOING TO BE RATHER UNSETTLED FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE
AS WELL AS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
LINGER IN OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ANTICIPATED.
A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO OUR VICINITY FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
GRADUALLY.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS A BIT REMOVED FROM THE OCEAN INFLUENCE. AS
A RESULT, WE WILL INDICATE AT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH DAYS, EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST.
WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY IN OR NEAR OR REGION ON
THURSDAY AND WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH OR LOW PASSING NEARBY OR
OVERHEAD, WE WILL AGAIN CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
DUE TO THE LIGHT ATMOSPHERIC FLOW, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY BE SLOW MOVING AND THEY
COULD LEAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT SOME LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A TREND TOWARD DRY WEATHER
ANTICIPATED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH
DRY AIR BUILDING INTO OUR REGION, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT,
THEREFORE THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL MIGRATE INLAND. THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES ARE HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS AND HOW LOW THE CEILINGS
END UP GETTING. AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL, THE
CLOUDS WILL LOWER FROM EAST TO WEST. AS A RESULT, WE ARE EXPECTING
THE CEILINGS TO LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE BROUGHT ALL OF OUR
TERMINALS DOWN TO MVFR THEN EVEN TO IFR, WITH KABE AND KRDG SEEING
THE LATTER LAST.
THERE WILL BE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS WELL GENERALLY FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THESE, HOWEVER GIVEN THE DEEPENING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT, LOCAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE WHAT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE
AND OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AS OF 0000Z. THE THUNDER
CHANCES SEEM TO BE RATHER LOW, THEREFORE NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED
AT THIS TIME. THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT GENERALLY TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS SOME DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH
WEAKENING. THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE DEEP ENOUGH ALREADY AND
WITH THE SURFACE DEW POINTS COMING UP SOME THAT SOME FOG HAS
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS EVENING FROM ABOUT KACY TO KWWD. WE HAVE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IF THIS SPREADS INLAND, THEREFORE WE RESTRICTED IT AT
KACY TO NEAR KMIV FOR AWHILE TONIGHT.
FOR MONDAY, SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A
WEAKNESS IN THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG WITH AN ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE. THERE SHOULD BE LOWER CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A TOUCH OF FOG
IN THE MORNING ALONG WITH SHOWERS, THE THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE
SHOWERS FOR AWHILE. AGAIN, THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING
THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS. WHILE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT WIDESPREAD, THEREFORE
THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS, DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, EXCEPT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WIND SHOULD BE MAINLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND IT MAY FAVOR THE EAST TO SOUTH QUADRANT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SOUTH WIND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS. SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND AND ALSO BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THE WINDS HAVE
NOT BEEN REACHING CRITERIA ACROSS THE UPPER BAY AND THEY SHOULD NOT
INCREASE TO THESE LEVELS TONIGHT. THE WINDS ACROSS LOWER DELAWARE
BAY ARE STRONGER, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS MAINLY NEAR THE LEWES
AREA DUE TO THE NORTHEAST FETCH. WE WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY HERE FOR
NOW DUE TO GUSTS TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
PROLONGED NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 5 FEET WITH THE HIGHER SETS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS DUE TO
A LONGER FETCH AND INITIALLY STRONGER WINDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A RESULT THROUGH MONDAY. THE WINDS WILL GUST
THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS, THEN
TEND TO DIMINISH SOME LATER TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO RELAX SOME.
OUTLOOK...
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERION FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 5 FEET
OR GREATER INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD, AS TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO
PASSES WELL TO OUR EAST. FOR NOW, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 600 AM TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT MOST, IF NOT ALL SITES, WILL REMAIN BELOW
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY /AND BEYOND/. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR REACHING THE THRESHOLD WOULD BE OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COASTAL AREAS DUE TO A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGHER SEAS.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WHILE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST MONDAY, IT IS FORECAST TO NOT
BE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, THE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE
SOMEWHAT LOWER. BASED ON THIS, WE CAME UP WITH A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS FOR MONDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE
000
FXUS61 KPHI 202247
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
647 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM
THE EAST TONIGHT, THEN DISSIPATE MONDAY. DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK, LOW PRESSURE SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS
FOLLOWED BY TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND IT WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTH MAY ARRIVE SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE WESTWARD AND MOVE
INTO VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FLOW AROUND THIS LOW ALONG
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT. THE OVERALL FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME AS
THE GRADIENT SUBSIDES DUE TO THE LOW WEAKENING. HOWEVER, A PLUME OF
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE PW VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES OVERNIGHT.
THERE APPEARS TO BE AN IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE SURFACE LOW AND
THIS LOOKS TO BE WHAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON.
THIS RESULTS IN SHOWERS THAT EXPAND FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT. THIS AREA LOOKS TO
BE THE SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ONTO THE ATLANTIC COASTS OF DELAWARE
AND MARYLAND AS OF 2230Z. THE OVERALL TIMING ON THIS HAS SOME LOWER
CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE SOME LOCAL
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE
POPS INCREASE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT.
THE MOISTENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS SPREADING
INLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE DAYTIME HEATING AND ENOUGH DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR HAS BEEN FIGHTING THE MOISTURE SURGE INLAND THUS FAR.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE CLOUDS THINNING SOME AS THEY MOVED INLAND.
THIS SHOULD CEASE ONCE THE DAYTIME HEATING IS DONE AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL. THEREFORE, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER
FROM EAST TO WEST. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME FOG WITH THE LOW LEVELS
MOISTENING UP, THINK MOST OF THE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE TIED
TO THE SHOWERS. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY FORECAST TO OCCUR,
THEREFORE JUST A CHC OF THUNDER WAS MENTIONED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR AWHILE TONIGHT GIVEN SOME CONVECTION TIED
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER ATTM.
THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE FASTER COOLING ACROSS
THE EASTERN ZONES DUE TO THE MARINE INFLUENCE. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE
WAS USED TO ASSIST WITH THIS. THE DEW POINTS ARE ALSO COMING UP AS
THE MOISTURE SURGE BEGINS. THE MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS SITTING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY ARE
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MDL SOLNS DIFFER A BIT ON PRECIP TOMORROW. WE WILL STILL BE
IMPACTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW, BUT IT WILL NOT BE A
COMPLETELY RAINY DAY BY ANY MEANS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS
AS PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW. AS A RESULT, THE MDLS
ARE HAVING THEIR DIFFS DETERMINING WHICH PDS WILL BE WET AND WHICH
ONES WILL BE DRY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE MORNING
COULD BE WETTER THAN THE AFTN, OVERALL. QPF SHOULD BE 0.50 INCHES
OR LESS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR EAST
AND WILL LIKELY NOT INFLUENCE OUR LAND AREAS. NEVERTHELESS, THE
WEATHER IS GOING TO BE RATHER UNSETTLED FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE
AS WELL AS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
LINGER IN OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ANTICIPATED.
A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO OUR VICINITY FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
GRADUALLY.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS A BIT REMOVED FROM THE OCEAN INFLUENCE. AS
A RESULT, WE WILL INDICATE AT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH DAYS, EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST.
WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY IN OR NEAR OR REGION ON
THURSDAY AND WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH OR LOW PASSING NEARBY OR
OVERHEAD, WE WILL AGAIN CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
DUE TO THE LIGHT ATMOSPHERIC FLOW, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY BE SLOW MOVING AND THEY
COULD LEAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT SOME LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A TREND TOWARD DRY WEATHER
ANTICIPATED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH
DRY AIR BUILDING INTO OUR REGION, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT,
THEREFORE THE LOWER CLOUDS THAT CONTINUE IN THE KMIV AND KACY AREAS
WILL MIGRATE INLAND. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE HOW QUICKLY
THIS OCCURS AND HOW LOW THE CEILINGS END UP GETTING. THE HEATING
INLAND HAS ALLOWED THE CLOUD BASES TO RISE AND EVEN THIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF INTERIOR NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ONCE THE HEATING IS LOST AND THE LOWER
LEVELS COOL, THE MOISTURE SURGE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE INLAND MORE
EFFICIENTLY. AS A RESULT, WE ARE EXPECTING THE CEILINGS TO INCREASE
AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM EAST TO WEST. WE BROUGHT ALL OF OUR
TERMINALS DOWN TO MVFR DURING THE NIGHT THEN EVEN TO IFR LATE, WITH
THIS ALREADY HAPPENING OR WILL OCCUR MUCH FASTER AT KMIV AND
KACY.
THERE WILL BE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS WELL GENERALLY FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THESE, HOWEVER GIVEN THE DEEPENING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT, LOCAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE WHAT IS MOVING ONSHORE OF DELAWARE AND
MARYLAND AS OF 2230Z. THE THUNDER CHANCES SEEM TO BE RATHER LOW,
THEREFORE NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. THE NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE NIGHT GENERALLY TO ABOUT 10
KNOTS, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH WEAKENING.
FOR MONDAY, SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A
WEAKNESS IN THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG WITH AN ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE. THERE SHOULD BE LOWER CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A TOUCH OF FOG
IN THE MORNING ALONG WITH SHOWERS, THE THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE
SHOWERS FOR AWHILE. AGAIN, THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING
THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS. WHILE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT WIDESPREAD, THEREFORE
THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS, DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, EXCEPT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WIND SHOULD BE MAINLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND IT MAY FAVOR THE EAST TO SOUTH QUADRANT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SOUTH WIND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS. SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND AND ALSO BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THE WINDS HAVE
NOT BEEN REACHING CRITERIA ACROSS THE UPPER BAY AND THEY SHOULD NOT
INCREASE TO THESE LEVELS TONIGHT. THE WINDS ACROSS LOWER DELAWARE
BAY ARE STRONGER, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS MAINLY NEAR THE LEWES
AREA DUE TO THE NORTHEAST FETCH. WE WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY HERE FOR
NOW DUE TO GUSTS TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
PROLONGED NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 5 FEET WITH THE HIGHER SETS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS DUE TO
A LONGER FETCH AND INITIALLY STRONGER WINDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A RESULT THROUGH MONDAY. THE WINDS WILL GUST
THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS, THEN
TEND TO DIMINISH SOME LATER TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO RELAX SOME.
OUTLOOK...
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERION FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 5 FEET
OR GREATER INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD, AS TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO
PASSES WELL TO OUR EAST. FOR NOW, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 600 AM TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT MOST, IF NOT ALL SITES, WILL REMAIN BELOW
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY /AND BEYOND/. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR REACHING THE THRESHOLD WOULD BE OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COASTAL AREAS DUE TO A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGHER SEAS.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN THE HIGH CATEGORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING.
WHILE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST MONDAY, IT IS FORECAST TO NOT BE
AS STRONG AS SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, THE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE
SOMEWHAT LOWER. BASED ON THIS, WE CAME UP WITH A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS FOR MONDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-
024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE
000
FXUS61 KPHI 201928
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
328 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE
VIRGINIA CAPES. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD, REACHING
THE COAST THIS EVENING, THEN IT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. DURING
THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK, LOW PRESSURE SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS FOLLOWED BY TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO.
BOTH SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST. A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND IT WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE OUR REGION DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD BEFORE DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH MAY ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NICELY DEPICTING THE SWIRL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS LOW IS
FCST TO SLOWLY MOVE WWD TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDINESS ASSOCD WITH THIS
LOW HAS BEEN MOVG ACRS S JERSEY ALL DAY AND WILL IMPACT MORE OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL.
MDL GUID IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TEMPS AND WAS GENLY FOLLOWED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MDL SOLNS DIFFER A BIT ON PRECIP TOMORROW. WE WILL STILL BE
IMPACTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW, BUT IT WILL NOT BE A
COMPLETELY RAINY DAY BY ANY MEANS. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN
AS PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW. AS A RESULT, THE MDLS
ARE HAVING THEIR DIFFS DETERMINING WHICH PDS WILL BE WET AND WHICH
ONES WILL BE DRY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE MORNING
COULD BE WETTER THAN THE AFTN, OVERALL. QPF SHOULD BE 0.50 INCHES
OR LESS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR EAST
AND WILL LIKELY NOT INFLUENCE OUR LAND AREAS. NEVERTHELESS, THE
WEATHER IS GOING TO BE RATHER UNSETTLED FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE
AS WELL AS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
LINGER IN OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ANTICIPATED.
A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO OUR VICINITY FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
GRADUALLY.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS A BIT REMOVED FROM THE OCEAN INFLUENCE. AS
A RESULT, WE WILL INDICATE AT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH DAYS, EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST.
WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY IN OR NEAR OR REGION ON
THURSDAY AND WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH OR LOW PASSING NEARBY OR
OVERHEAD, WE WILL AGAIN CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
DUE TO THE LIGHT ATMOSPHERIC FLOW, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY BE SLOW MOVING AND THEY
COULD LEAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT SOME LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A TREND TOWARD DRY WEATHER
ANTICIPATED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH
DRY AIR BUILDING INTO OUR REGION, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMIV AND KACY, ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR. KMIV
AND KACY ARE MVFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS MOVG WWD FROM AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA CST.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER AND THICKEN EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AND MVFR CONDS AND EVENTUALLY IFR CONDS WILL BECOME
PREVALENT. ALSO, LATER TONIGHT, SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL.
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WWD THRU MONDAY AND KEEP THINGS RATHER
UNSETTLED. WHILE THERE WILL BE WET AND DRY PDS, EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
(OR LOWER) DURG THIS TIME.
THE WIND WILL GENLY BE FROM THE NE BECOMING MORE ELY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. THE GUSTINESS THIS AFTN SHOULD
DECREASE BY SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS, DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, EXCEPT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WIND SHOULD BE MAINLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND IT MAY FAVOR THE EAST TO SOUTH QUADRANT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SOUTH WIND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS. SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
PROLONGED NE TO E FLOW IS EXPECTED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND FCST TO MOVE WWD TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
SEAS ARE ALREADY ABOVE 7 FT AT BUOY 44009 AND WHILE THEY REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA FURTHER N, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AS WELL.
THE PREV ISSUED SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AS A RESULT. THE WIND
WILL GUST THRU THE EVENING AND AROUND ANY SHOWERS THAT MAY
DEVELOP.
OUTLOOK...
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERION FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 5 FEET
OR GREATER INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD, AS TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO
PASSES WELL TO OUR EAST. FOR NOW, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 600 AM TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WERE POCKETS WHERE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINED BELOW 30% AND
THE WIND WAS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH, MAINLY OVER NRN SECTIONS OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL TREND IN HUMIDITY IS UPWARD. SO
THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED FIRE WX CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS, AS THE WIND DECREASES, TEMPS DECREASE AND MOISTURE
INCREASES WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST MOVING WWD, ANY FIRE WX
CONCERNS SHOULD SUBSIDE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
IT STILL APPEARS, BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE THAT MOST, IF NOT
ALL SITES, WILL REMAIN BELOW COASTAL FLOODING CRITERIA THROUGH
MONDAY (AND LIKELY BEYOND). THE BEST CHANCE FOR EXCEEDING
THRESHOLDS WOULD BE OVER SRN WATERS.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF A 4 TO 6 FOOT EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WITH AN
8 TO 10 SECOND PERIOD AND 1 TO 4 FEET OF WIND WAVES ON TOP OF
THAT... GENERATED BY AN INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND OF 20 TO
OCCASIONALLY 25 KNOTS...PRODUCES AN ENVIRONMENT THAT RAISES THE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD CATEGORY.
WE KNOW WATER TEMPERATURES ARE COLD FOR MOST RECREATIONAL BATHERS...
GENERALLY BETWEEN 55 AND 60 DEGREES...AND SO THERE ARE PROBABLY
FEW SWIMMERS. HOWEVER...IN THE INTEREST OF PROTECTION OF LIFE...
AND SINCE OUR SURF ZONE FORECAST HAS STARTED THIS SEASON...THE
HEADLINE INFORMATION HAS BEEN ISSUED.
DIMINISHING WIND AND SEAS ON MONDAY SHOULD LOWER THE RISK TO
MODERATE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-
024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
000
FXUS61 KPHI 201625
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1225 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL DRIFT
WESTWARD ON LAND LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MONDAY,
BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST AND WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MAY THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS WHERE NECESSARY. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FCST RATIONALE STILL LOOKED GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...A CONDUIT OF MOISTURE IN DEEP SE FLOW SHOULD NOT ONLY
DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT
/INSTABILITY BURST/ BUT 0.25 TO AS MUCH AS ISOLATED 1 INCH AMTS
ARE FCST BY 12Z MONDAY IN NJ/DE WITH LESSER AMTS IN PA/MD.
ISO THUNDER IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL NJ/DE AFTER 05Z WITH INSTABILITY
ALOFT...VIA A SWI SUBZERO...SOME CAPE ON THE SE SIDE OF THE INVERTED
TROUGH /SE BL WIND/. THE PROB FOR THUNDER IS LOW ENOUGH NOT TO BE
IN THE LEGACY ZONES BUT DOES SHOW UP IN THE MORE DETAILED
POINT/CLICK INFORMATION.
BLENDED NCEP STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR WINDS/TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE LOW THAT MOVED INLAND TO OUR SOUTH
WILL WEAKEN, BUT AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW IN
ACROSS THE AREA. PWAT VALUES REACH 1.5-1.75 INCHES DURING THE DAY
MONDAY, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE, SO WE HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY, BEFORE
SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
BROAD TROUGH ALOFT, SEVERAL VORT MAXES/SHORT WAVES WILL LIKELY CROSS
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, AND CONTINUE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SINCE THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
BY THURSDAY, THE FRONT SHOULD SINK TO OUR SOUTH, BUT FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE SLOW TO PULL
OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD
MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DAYTIME HEATING.
THE NHC HAS NAMED TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WHICH IS LOCATED OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE LATEST TRACK HAS THE STORM MEANDERING OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MONDAY, THEN MOVING NORTHEAST AND
WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS THE STORM AWAY
FROM OUR AREA, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST
IN CASE THE TRACK MOVES FURTHER WEST. VISIT THE NHC`S WEBSITE FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON THE TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, MVFR CIGS HAVE REACHED KACY AND KMIV IS
ON THE CUSP RIGHT NOW AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE WWD FROM SYS OFF THE CST.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD NWWD THIS AFTN COVERING MOST OF
SE NJ AND MOST OF DE BY 00Z/21. NE WIND GUSTS 20-25 KTS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION. SCT SHOWERS DEVELOP VCNTY KACY THRU
MOST OF S DE SOMETIME DURING THE AFTN. FOR NOW THE FCST IN THE
TAFS IS NEAR 00Z BUT SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON RADAR.
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS SPREAD OVER ALL THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT AND
SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY IN
NJ/DE. ITS ALSO LIKELY THAT IFR CONDS DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS
AS WELL AS ST/FOG...MAINLY AFTER 05Z/21.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY WITH
SHOWERS. MOSTLY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR EARLY, POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY
AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. EAST WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE EARLY, IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON
EXCEPT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCA CONTINUES AS POSTED. THE HAZARDOUS SEAS
HAVE BEEN IN PROGRESS OVER VIRTUALLY ALL THE ATLC WATERS FOR A DAY
NOW...THE EXCEPTION POSSIBLY IN PORTIONS OF ANZ450. ONSHORE WINDS
ARE MODELED TO INCREASE 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY THROUGHOUT THE WATERS
/HIGHER THAN YDY/ BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. IF THE WIND
FCST IS CORRECT...SEAS TO 10 FEET WILL DEVELOP FOR THE DE COAST
TODAY. WE ADDED DE BAY TO SCA TODAY PER THE MODELED WIND INCREASE.
OUTLOOK...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY AS WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE KEEPS SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. WE WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST TRACK FOR TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO TO SEE IF ANY STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE IT ACROSS OUR WATERS.
THE LATEST TRACK FROM THE NHC KEEPS THE STORM FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM
OUR WATERS TO NOT GET STORM FORCE WINDS. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS WHEN THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO OUR EAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WE`LL CHECK WITH FORESTRY OFFICIALS AFTER 8AM TODAY TO SEE
WHETHER THEY PREFER AN SPS FOR THE 2P-5P PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NW NJ WHEN RH IS BELOW 30 PCT...NE
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 20 MPH...10 HR FUELS ARE IN THE 6 TO 9
PCT RANGE AFTER 4 SUCCESSIVE DRY DAYS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY, THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING...MAINLY THE
DELAWARE WATERS.
POSITIVE DEPARTURES AROUND A FOOT AND A QUARTER ARE NEEDED TO
REACH THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
00Z/20 MRPSSE GUIDANCE WILL BE AT LEAST HALF A FOOT TOO LOW FOR
TONIGHTS-SUNDAY NIGHT UPCOMING HIGH TIDE. SO FAR NO GUIDANCE
EXCEEDS THE THRESHOLD.
THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A CF STATEMENT FOR TIDES NUDGING
MINOR FS OR JUST BLO BY 0.2 FT FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE AS WELL AS
DE ATLC COAST THIS COMING SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
BASICALLY THIS FOCUSES ON LEWES/REEDY/PHL.
NO ACTION ON THIS SHIFT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS WELL AS ONLY
"APPROACHING" THRESHOLD INSTEAD OF ANY CLEAR GUIDANCE EXCEEDING
THRESHOLD. PREDICTION FOR TONIGHT AT LEWES AT LEAST 5.7 AS PER OUR
LOCAL STATISTICAL PROGRAM.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF A 4 TO 6 FOOT EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WITH AN 8
TO 10 SECOND PERIOD AND 1 TO 4 FEET OF WIND WAVES ON TOP OF THAT...
GENERATED BY AN INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND OF 20 TO OCCASIONALLY
25 KNOTS...PRODUCES AN ENVIRONMENT THAT RAISES THE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS INTO THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD CATEGORY.
WE KNOW WATER TEMPERATURES ARE COLD FOR MOST RECREATIONAL BATHERS...
GENERALLY BETWEEN 55 AND 60 DEGREES...AND SO THERE ARE PROBABLY
FEW SWIMMERS. HOWEVER...IN THE INTEREST OF PROTECTION OF LIFE...
AND SINCE OUR SURF ZONE FORECAST HAS STARTED THIS SEASON...THE
HEADLINE INFORMATION HAS BEEN ISSUED.
DIMINISHING WIND AND SEAS ON MONDAY-TOMORROW SHOULD LOWER THE RISK TO
MODERATE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-
024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...
000
FXUS61 KPHI 201316
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
916 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL DRIFT
WESTWARD ON LAND LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MONDAY,
BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST AND WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MAY THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS WHERE NECESSARY. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FCST RATIONALE STILL LOOKED GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...A CONDUIT OF MOISTURE IN DEEP SE FLOW SHOULD NOT ONLY
DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT
/INSTABILITY BURST/ BUT 0.25 TO AS MUCH AS ISOLATED 1 INCH AMTS
ARE FCST BY 12Z MONDAY IN NJ/DE WITH LESSER AMTS IN PA/MD.
ISO THUNDER IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL NJ/DE AFTER 05Z WITH INSTABILITY
ALOFT...VIA A SWI SUBZERO...SOME CAPE ON THE SE SIDE OF THE INVERTED
TROUGH /SE BL WIND/. THE PROB FOR THUNDER IS LOW ENOUGH NOT TO BE
IN THE LEGACY ZONES BUT DOES SHOW UP IN THE MORE DETAILED
POINT/CLICK INFORMATION.
BLENDED NCEP STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR WINDS/TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE LOW THAT MOVED INLAND TO OUR SOUTH
WILL WEAKEN, BUT AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW IN
ACROSS THE AREA. PWAT VALUES REACH 1.5-1.75 INCHES DURING THE DAY
MONDAY, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE, SO WE HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY, BEFORE
SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
BROAD TROUGH ALOFT, SEVERAL VORT MAXES/SHORT WAVES WILL LIKELY CROSS
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, AND CONTINUE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SINCE THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
BY THURSDAY, THE FRONT SHOULD SINK TO OUR SOUTH, BUT FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE SLOW TO PULL
OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD
MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DAYTIME HEATING.
THE NHC HAS NAMED TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WHICH IS LOCATED OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE LATEST TRACK HAS THE STORM MEANDERING OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MONDAY, THEN MOVING NORTHEAST AND
WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS THE STORM AWAY
FROM OUR AREA, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST
IN CASE THE TRACK MOVES FURTHER WEST. VISIT THE NHC`S WEBSITE FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON THE TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS AROUND.
LIGHT NE WIND.
AFTER 12Z...VFR. MVFR CIGS MOVE WESTWARD ASHORE BETWEEN 16Z-19Z
FM VCNTY KACY TO KGED AND SPREAD NWWD THIS AFTN COVERING MOST OF
SE NJ AND MOST OF DE BY 00Z/21. NE WIND GUSTS 20-25 KTS BY NOON.
SCT SHOWERS DEVELOP VCNTY KACY THRU MOST OF S DE SOMETIME DURING
THE AFTN. FOR NOW THE FCST IN THE TAFS IS NEAR 00Z BUT SUBJECT TO
CHANGE BASED ON RADAR.
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS SPREAD OVER ALL THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT AND
SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY IN
NJ/DE. ITS ALSO LIKELY THAT IFR CONDS DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS
AS WELL AS ST/FOG...MAINLY AFTER 05Z/21.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY WITH
SHOWERS. MOSTLY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR EARLY, POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY
AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. EAST WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE EARLY, IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON
EXCEPT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCA CONTINUES AS POSTED. THE HAZARDOUS SEAS
HAVE BEEN IN PROGRESS OVER VIRTUALLY ALL THE ATLC WATERS FOR A DAY
NOW...THE EXCEPTION POSSIBLY IN PORTIONS OF ANZ450. ONSHORE WINDS
ARE MODELED TO INCREASE 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY THROUGHOUT THE WATERS
/HIGHER THAN YDY/ BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. IF THE WIND
FCST IS CORRECT...SEAS TO 10 FEET WILL DEVELOP FOR THE DE COAST
TODAY. WE ADDED DE BAY TO SCA TODAY PER THE MODELED WIND INCREASE.
OUTLOOK...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY AS WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE KEEPS SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. WE WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST TRACK FOR TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO TO SEE IF ANY STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE IT ACROSS OUR WATERS.
THE LATEST TRACK FROM THE NHC KEEPS THE STORM FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM
OUR WATERS TO NOT GET STORM FORCE WINDS. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS WHEN THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO OUR EAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WE`LL CHECK WITH FORESTRY OFFICIALS AFTER 8AM TODAY TO SEE
WHETHER THEY PREFER AN SPS FOR THE 2P-5P PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NW NJ WHEN RH IS BELOW 30 PCT...NE
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 20 MPH...10 HR FUELS ARE IN THE 6 TO 9
PCT RANGE AFTER 4 SUCCESSIVE DRY DAYS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY, THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING...MAINLY THE
DELAWARE WATERS.
POSITIVE DEPARTURES AROUND A FOOT AND A QUARTER ARE NEEDED TO
REACH THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
00Z/20 MRPSSE GUIDANCE WILL BE AT LEAST HALF A FOOT TOO LOW FOR
TONIGHTS-SUNDAY NIGHT UPCOMING HIGH TIDE. SO FAR NO GUIDANCE
EXCEEDS THE THRESHOLD.
THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A CF STATEMENT FOR TIDES NUDGING
MINOR FS OR JUST BLO BY 0.2 FT FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE AS WELL AS
DE ATLC COAST THIS COMING SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
BASICALLY THIS FOCUSES ON LEWES/REEDY/PHL.
NO ACTION ON THIS SHIFT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS WELL AS ONLY
"APPROACHING" THRESHOLD INSTEAD OF ANY CLEAR GUIDANCE EXCEEDING
THRESHOLD. PREDICTION FOR TONIGHT AT LEWES AT LEAST 5.7 AS PER OUR
LOCAL STATISTICAL PROGRAM.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF A 4 TO 6 FOOT EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WITH AN 8
TO 10 SECOND PERIOD AND 1 TO 4 FEET OF WIND WAVES ON TOP OF THAT...
GENERATED BY AN INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND OF 20 TO OCCASIONALLY
25 KNOTS...PRODUCES AN ENVIRONMENT THAT RAISES THE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS INTO THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD CATEGORY.
WE KNOW WATER TEMPERATURES ARE COLD FOR MOST RECREATIONAL BATHERS...
GENERALLY BETWEEN 55 AND 60 DEGREES...AND SO THERE ARE PROBABLY
FEW SWIMMERS. HOWEVER...IN THE INTEREST OF PROTECTION OF LIFE...
AND SINCE OUR SURF ZONE FORECAST HAS STARTED THIS SEASON...THE
HEADLINE INFORMATION HAS BEEN ISSUED.
DIMINISHING WIND AND SEAS ON MONDAY-TOMORROW SHOULD LOWER THE RISK TO
MODERATE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
FIRE WEATHER...DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
000
FXUS61 KPHI 200834
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
434 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL DRIFT
WESTWARD ON LAND LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MONDAY,
BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST AND WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MAY THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...GUSTY NE WINDS OF 25 MPH DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS SOMEWHAT
COOLER MARINE AIR EVENTUALLY PENETRATES WESTWARD AFTER AN INITIALLY
VERY RAPID MORNING WARMUP. SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD INLAND INTO SE DE
AND POSSIBLY THE SE NJ COAST BY DAYS END.
BLENDED NCEP STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR WINDS/TEMPS/DEWPOINTS THO
FAVORED THE WARMER NAM FOR TODAY WHICH ALSO AGREES BETTER WITH THE
WARMER ECMWF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...A CONDUIT OF MOISTURE IN DEEP SE FLOW SHOULD NOT ONLY
DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT
/INSTABILITY BURST/ BUT 0.25 TO AS MUCH AS ISOLATED 1 INCH AMTS
ARE FCST BY 12Z MONDAY IN NJ/DE WITH LESSER AMTS IN PA/MD.
ISO THUNDER IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL NJ/DE AFTER 05Z WITH INSTABILITY
ALOFT...VIA A SWI SUBZERO...SOME CAPE ON THE SE SIDE OF THE INVERTED
TROUGH /SE BL WIND/. THE PROB FOR THUNDER IS LOW ENOUGH NOT TO BE
IN THE LEGACY ZONES BUT DOES SHOW UP IN THE MORE DETAILED
POINT/CLICK INFORMATION.
BLENDED NCEP STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR WINDS/TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE LOW THAT MOVED INLAND TO OUR SOUTH
WILL WEAKEN, BUT AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW IN
ACROSS THE AREA. PWAT VALUES REACH 1.5-1.75 INCHES DURING THE DAY
MONDAY, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE, SO WE HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY, BEFORE
SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
BROAD TROUGH ALOFT, SEVERAL VORT MAXES/SHORT WAVES WILL LIKELY CROSS
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, AND CONTINUE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SINCE THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
BY THURSDAY, THE FRONT SHOULD SINK TO OUR SOUTH, BUT FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE SLOW TO PULL
OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD
MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DAYTIME HEATING.
THE NHC HAS NAMED TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WHICH IS LOCATED OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE LATEST TRACK HAS THE STORM MEANDERING OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MONDAY, THEN MOVING NORTHEAST AND
WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS THE STORM AWAY
FROM OUR AREA, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST
IN CASE THE TRACK MOVES FURTHER WEST. VISIT THE NHC`S WEBSITE FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON THE TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS AROUND.
LIGHT NE WIND.
AFTER 12Z...VFR. MVFR CIGS MOVE WESTWARD ASHORE BETWEEN 16Z-19Z
FM VCNTY KACY TO KGED AND SPREAD NWWD THIS AFTN COVERING MOST OF
SE NJ AND MOST OF DE BY 00Z/21. NE WIND GUSTS 20-25 KTS BY NOON.
SCT SHOWERS DEVELOP VCNTY KACY THRU MOST OF S DE SOMETIME DURING
THE AFTN. FOR NOW THE FCST IN THE TAFS IS NEAR 00Z BUT SUBJECT TO
CHANGE BASED ON RADAR.
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS SPREAD OVER ALL THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT AND
SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY IN
NJ/DE. ITS ALSO LIKELY THAT IFR CONDS DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS
AS WELL AS ST/FOG...MAINLY AFTER 05Z/21.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY WITH
SHOWERS. MOSTLY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR EARLY, POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY
AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. EAST WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE EARLY, IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON
EXCEPT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCA CONTINUES AS POSTED. THE HAZARDOUS SEAS
HAVE BEEN IN PROGRESS OVER VIRTUALLY ALL THE ATLC WATERS FOR A DAY
NOW...THE EXCEPTION POSSIBLY IN PORTIONS OF ANZ450. ONSHORE WINDS
ARE MODELED TO INCREASE 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY THROUGHOUT THE WATERS
/HIGHER THAN YDY/ BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. IF THE WIND
FCST IS CORRECT...SEAS TO 10 FEET WILL DEVELOP FOR THE DE COAST
TODAY. WE ADDED DE BAY TO SCA TODAY PER THE MODELED WIND INCREASE.
OUTLOOK...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY AS WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE KEEPS SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. WE WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST TRACK FOR TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO TO SEE IF ANY STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE IT ACROSS OUR WATERS.
THE LATEST TRACK FROM THE NHC KEEPS THE STORM FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM
OUR WATERS TO NOT GET STORM FORCE WINDS. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS WHEN THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO OUR EAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WE`LL CHECK WITH FORESTRY OFFICIALS AFTER 8AM TODAY TO SEE
WHETHER THEY PREFER AN SPS FOR THE 2P-5P PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NW NJ WHEN RH IS BELOW 30 PCT...NE
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 20 MPH...10 HR FUELS ARE IN THE 6 TO 9
PCT RANGE AFTER 4 SUCCESSIVE DRY DAYS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY, THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING...MAINLY THE
DELAWARE WATERS.
POSITIVE DEPARTURES AROUND A FOOT AND A QUARTER ARE NEEDED TO
REACH THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
00Z/20 MRPSSE GUIDANCE WILL BE AT LEAST HALF A FOOT TOO LOW FOR
TONIGHTS-SUNDAY NIGHT UPCOMING HIGH TIDE. SO FAR NO GUIDANCE
EXCEEDS THE THRESHOLD.
THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A CF STATEMENT FOR TIDES NUDGING
MINOR FS OR JUST BLO BY 0.2 FT FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE AS WELL AS
DE ATLC COAST THIS COMING SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
BASICALLY THIS FOCUSES ON LEWES/REEDY/PHL.
NO ACTION ON THIS SHIFT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS WELL AS ONLY
"APPROACHING" THRESHOLD INSTEAD OF ANY CLEAR GUIDANCE EXCEEDING
THRESHOLD. PREDICTION FOR TONIGHT AT LEWES AT LEAST 5.7 AS PER OUR
LOCAL STATISTICAL PROGRAM.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF A 4 TO 6 FOOT EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WITH AN 8
TO 10 SECOND PERIOD AND 1 TO 4 FEET OF WIND WAVES ON TOP OF THAT...
GENERATED BY AN INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND OF 20 TO OCCASIONALLY
25 KNOTS...PRODUCES AN ENVIRONMENT THAT RAISES THE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS INTO THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD CATEGORY.
WE KNOW WATER TEMPERATURES ARE COLD FOR MOST RECREATIONAL BATHERS...
GENERALLY BETWEEN 55 AND 60 DEGREES...AND SO THERE ARE PROBABLY
FEW SWIMMERS. HOWEVER...IN THE INTEREST OF PROTECTION OF LIFE...
AND SINCE OUR SURF ZONE FORECAST HAS STARTED THIS SEASON...THE
HEADLINE INFORMATION HAS BEEN ISSUED.
DIMINISHING WIND AND SEAS ON MONDAY-TOMORROW SHOULD LOWER THE RISK TO
MODERATE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 434
SHORT TERM...DRAG 434
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 434
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 434
FIRE WEATHER...434
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...434
RIP CURRENTS...434
000
FXUS61 KPHI 200738
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL DRIFT
WESTWARD ON LAND LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MONDAY,
BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST AND WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MAY THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS IN PROGRESS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE EARLIER FORECAST PHILOSOPHY/INFORMATION.
HOWEVER...CHANGES IN OUR WEATHER ARE BECOMING EVIDENT AND NOT TOO
FAR AWAY.
THE MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY /OUR DRY VERSUS WHAT IS COMING/ IS
EVIDENT ON OUR RADAR PRESENTATION JUST OFF THE LI AND NJ COASTS.
DEWPOINTS RISE CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THAT BOUNDARY... FROM NEAR 40
IN NJ TO THE LOWER 60S EAST OF BOUNDARY WHERE THERE IS ALSO A
MIDNIGHT SHIP REPORT OF MDT RAIN ABOUT 125 MI E OF KACY!
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS AT VARIOUS LEVELS ADVANCING
INTO AND TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE SEPARATE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE POSITIVE TILT SOUTHEAST
TROUGH ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
TODAY...GUSTY NE WINDS OF 25 MPH DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS FIRST
HIGH CLOUD INVADES WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN S DE AND POSSIBLY
THE SE NJ COAST BY DAYS END. THE FCST POPS IN THE 330 AM PKG WILL
BE RAISED 10-20 PCT FM SE DEL TO KWWD NJ.
TONIGHT...A CONDUIT OF MOISTURE IN DEEP SE FLOW SHOULD NOT ONLY
DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT /INSTABILITY
BURST/ BUT 0.25 TO AS MUCH AS ISOLATED 1 INCH AMTS ARE FCST BY 12Z
MONDAY... IN NJ/DE WITH LESSER AMTS IN PA/MD. ISO THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE IN COASTAL NJ AFTER 05Z. WILL GRID ISO T IN COASTAL NJ/DE
FOR LATE TONIGHT. SWI DROP BLO 0 AND CAPE IS APPROACHING THE COAST
AS WELL AS KI NEAR 34. FCST POPS WILL RANGE FROM CHC IN NE PA TOP
LIKELY MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION TO CATEGORICAL IN SSE DE AND
COASTAL S NJ.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE LOW THAT MOVED INLAND TO OUR SOUTH
WILL WEAKEN, BUT AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW IN
ACROSS THE AREA. PWAT VALUES REACH 1.5-1.75 INCHES DURING THE DAY
MONDAY, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE, SO WE HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY, BEFORE
SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
BROAD TROUGH ALOFT, SEVERAL VORT MAXES/SHORT WAVES WILL LIKELY CROSS
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, AND CONTINUE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SINCE THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
BY THURSDAY, THE FRONT SHOULD SINK TO OUR SOUTH, BUT FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE SLOW TO PULL
OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD
MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DAYTIME HEATING.
THE NHC HAS NAMED TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WHICH IS LOCATED OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE LATEST TRACK HAS THE STORM MEANDERING OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MONDAY, THEN MOVING NORTHEAST AND
WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS THE STORM AWAY
FROM OUR AREA, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST
IN CASE THE TRACK MOVES FURTHER WEST. VISIT THE NHC`S WEBSITE FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON THE TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS AROUND.
LIGHT NE WIND.
AFTER 12Z...VFR. MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z-19Z FM VCNTY KACY
TO KGED AND SPREAD NWWD THIS AFTN COVERING MOST OF SE NJ AND MOST
OF DE BY 00Z/21. NE WIND GUSTS 20-25 KTS BY NOON. SCT SHOWERS
DEVELOP VCNTY KACY THRU MOST OF S DE SOMETIME DURING THE AFTN. FOR
NOW THE FCST IN THE TAFS IS NEAR 00Z BUT SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED
ON RADAR.
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS SPREAD OVER ALL THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT AND
SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY IN
NJ. ITS ALSO LIKELY THAT IFR CONDS DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS
AS WELL AS ST/FOG...MAINLY AFTER 05Z/21.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY WITH
SHOWERS. MOSTLY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR EARLY, POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY
AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. EAST WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE EARLY, IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON
EXCEPT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCA CONTINUES AS POSTED.
OUTLOOK...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY AS WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE KEEPS SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. WE WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST TRACK FOR TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO TO SEE IF ANY STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE IT ACROSS OUR WATERS.
THE LATEST TRACK FROM THE NHC KEEPS THE STORM FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM
OUR WATERS TO NOT GET STORM FORCE WINDS. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS WHEN THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO OUR EAST.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING DURING
THAT PERIOD. POSITIVE DEPARTURES AROUND A FOOT AND A QUARTER ARE
NEEDED TO REACH THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
00Z/20 MRPSSE GUIDANCE JUST RCD WILL BE AT LEAST HALF A FOOT TOO
LOW FOR TONIGHTS-SUNDAY NIGHT UPCOMING HIGH TIDE. SO FAR NO
GUIDANCE EXCEEDS THE THRESHOLD.
AS OF 145 AM... I THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A CF STATEMENT FOR
TIDES NUDGING MINOR FS OR JUST BLO BY 0.2 FT FOR THE TIDAL
DELAWARE AS WELL AS DE ATLC COAST. BASICALLY THIS IS FOCUSES ON
LEWES/REEDY/PHL. NOT TAKING ACTION ON THIS SHIFT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AS WELL AS APPROACHING THRESHOLD INSTEAD OF ANY CLEAR
GUIDANCE EXCEEDING THRESHOLD. PREDICTION FOR TONIGHT AT LEWES AT
LEAST 5.7.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES, RESULTING IN ELEVATED SEAS. IN ADDITION,
A SWELL COMPONENT IS PRESENT WITH LOW PRESSURE SLIDING WEST-SOUTHWEST
AND TOWARD THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC REGION.
AN RP.S WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 4AM FOR A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS.
THE DATA USED FOR 44009 8 FT 8 SEC 04022 NEW MOON. VALUES EASILY
IN HIGH RISK CATEGORY. WONT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE SEAS GROW TO
10 FT AT 44009. 44009 FREQUENCY DATA IS SHOWING A 10 SEC PERIOD
SWELL ALSO...IN ADDITION TO THE PRIMARY 8 SEC PERIOD.
FORTUNATELY WATER TEMPS AS OBSERVED THRU BUOY AND SAT IMAGERY THE
LAST 12 HRS OFFERS 55-60F A BIT ON THE COLD SIDE FOR TYPICAL
RECREATIONAL SWIMMING.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
000
FXUS61 KPHI 200605
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA WILL SHIFT TO NEAR
NOVA SCOTIA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA WILL MOVE WEST TOWARD THE VIRGINIA CAPES
WHILE TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO MEANDERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO OUR AREA LATER TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
LINGER INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1230 AM EST...PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO LOWER THE DEWPOINTS SEVERAL
DEGS THRU THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL NIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA.
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS IN PROGRESS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE EARLIER FORECAST PHILOSOPHY/INFORMATION.
HOWEVER...CHANGES IN OUR WEATHER ARE BECOMING EVIDENT AND NOT TOO
FAR AWAY.
THE MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY /OUR DRY VERSUS WHAT IS COMING/ IS
EVIDENT ON OUR RADAR PRESENTATION JUST OFF THE LI AND NJ COASTS.
DEWPOINTS RISE CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THAT BOUNDARY... FROM NEAR 40
IN NJ TO THE LOWER 60S EAST OF BOUNDARY WHERE THERE IS ALSO A
MIDNIGHT SHIP REPORT OF MDT RAIN ABOUT 125 MI E OF KACY!
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS AT VARIOUS LEVELS ADVANCING
INTO AND TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE SEPARATE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE POSITIVE TILT SOUTHEAST
TROUGH ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
TODAY...GUSTY NE WINDS OF 25 MPH DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS FIRST
HIGH CLOUD INVADES WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN S DE AND POSSIBLY
THE SE NJ COAST BY DAYS END. THE FCST POPS IN THE 330 AM PKG WILL
BE RAISED 10-20 PCT FM SE DEL TO KWWD NJ.
TONIGHT...A CONDUIT OF MOISTURE IN DEEP SE FLOW SHOULD NOT ONLY
DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT /INSTABILITY
BURST/ BUT 0.25 TO AS MUCH AS ISOLATED 1 INCH AMTS ARE FCST BY 12Z
MONDAY... IN NJ/DE WITH LESSER AMTS IN PA/MD. ISO THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE IN COASTAL NJ AFTER 05Z. WILL GRID ISO T IN COASTAL NJ/DE
FOR LATE TONIGHT. SWI DROP BLO 0 AND CAPE IS APPROACHING THE COAST
AS WELL AS KI NEAR 34. FCST POPS WILL RANGE FROM CHC IN NE PA TOP
LIKELY MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION TO CATEGORICAL IN SSE DE AND
COASTAL S NJ.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE AROUND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE ON SUNDAY, CLOUDS AND
EVENTUALLY SOME SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING LOW WORKS ITS
WAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.
WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER IN OUR
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT WITH THE ABSENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT
FOCUSING MECHANISM.
A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS, WE ARE ANTICIPATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND THEY COULD LEAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT
SOME LOCATIONS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWN INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY, A TREND TOWARD DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH DRY AIR BUILDING INTO
OUR REGION, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE WELL INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS AROUND.
LIGHT NE WIND.
AFTER 12Z...VFR. MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z-19Z FM VCNTY KACY
TO KGED AND SPREAD NWWD THIS AFTN COVERING MOST OF SE NJ AND MOST
OF DE BY 00Z/21. NE WIND GUSTS 20-25 KTS BY NOON. SCT SHOWERS
DEVELOP VCNTY KACY THRU MOST OF S DE SOMETIME DURING THE AFTN. FOR
NOW THE FCST IN THE TAFS IS NEAR 00Z BUT SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED
ON RADAR.
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS SPREAD OVER ALL THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT AND
SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY IN
NJ. ITS ALSO LIKELY THAT IFR CONDS DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS
AS WELL AS ST/FOG...MAINLY AFTER 05Z/21.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. NORTHEAST WIND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS,
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. MAINLY VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EXCEPT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VARIABLE WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE MORNING. VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.MARINE...
RAN THE TROPICAL FORMATTER ON PWS AND NO MENTION OF TROPICAL IN
THE 11PM CWF.
SCA CONTINUES AS POSTED. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD AN EXTENSION IN TIME
IS PROBABLE WITH THE 330 AM FCST ...WELL INTO MONDAY.
ANTICIPATING AT 330AM ADDING DE BAY TO THE SCA FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE VIRGINIA COAST SLIDES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR COASTAL
WATERS. THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS OVER DELAWARE BAY
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY THE LOWER PORTION, BUT FOR NOW WE HELD OFF ON
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THOUGH
SOUTH OF LITTLE EGG INLET, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FARTHER NORTH.
OUTLOOK...
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERION FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE 5
FEET ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 600 AM MONDAY.
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO OUR EAST, WAVES ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS COULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET FOR MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN SWELLS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO SUBSIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING DURING
THAT PERIOD. POSITIVE DEPARTURES AROUND A FOOT AND A QUARTER ARE
NEEDED TO REACH THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
00Z/20 MRPSSE GUIDANCE JUST RCD WILL BE AT LEAST HALF A FOOT TOO
LOW FOR TONIGHTS-SUNDAY NIGHT UPCOMING HIGH TIDE. SO FAR NO
GUIDANCE EXCEEDS THE THRESHOLD.
AS OF 145 AM... I THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A CF STATEMENT FOR
TIDES NUDGING MINOR FS OR JUST BLO BY 0.2 FT FOR THE TIDAL
DELAWARE AS WELL AS DE ATLC COAST. BASICALLY THIS IS FOCUSES ON
LEWES/REEDY/PHL. NOT TAKING ACTION ON THIS SHIFT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AS WELL AS APPROACHING THRESHOLD INSTEAD OF ANY CLEAR
GUIDANCE EXCEEDING THRESHOLD. PREDICTION FOR TONIGHT AT LEWES AT
LEAST 5.7.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES, RESULTING IN ELEVATED SEAS. IN ADDITION,
A SWELL COMPONENT IS PRESENT WITH LOW PRESSURE SLIDING WEST-SOUTHWEST
AND TOWARD THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC REGION.
AN RP.S WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 4AM FOR A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS.
THE DATA USED FOR 44009 8 FT 8 SEC 04022 NEW MOON. VALUES EASILY
IN HIGH RISK CATEGORY. WONT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE SEAS GROW TO
10 FT AT 44009. 44009 FREQUENCY DATA IS SHOWING A 10 SEC PERIOD
SWELL ALSO...IN ADDITION TO THE PRIMARY 8 SEC PERIOD.
FORTUNATELY WATER TEMPS AS OBSERVED THRU BUOY AND SAT IMAGERY THE
LAST 12 HRS OFFERS 55-60F A BIT ON THE COLD SIDE FOR TYPICAL
RECREATIONAL SWIMMING.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...DRAG 204A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 204A
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO 204A
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...204A
RIP CURRENTS...204A
000
FXUS61 KPHI 200427
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1227 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA WILL SHIFT TO NEAR
NOVA SCOTIA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA WILL MOVE WEST TOWARD THE VIRGINIA CAPES
WHILE TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO MEANDERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO OUR AREA LATER TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
LINGER INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1230 AM EST...PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO LOWER THE DEWPOINTS SEVERAL
DEGS THRU THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL NIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA.
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS IN PROGRESS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE EARLIER FORECAST PHILOSOPHY/INFORMATION.
HOWEVER...CHANGES IN OUR WEATHER ARE BECOMING EVIDENT AND NOT TOO
FAR AWAY.
THE MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY /OUR DRY VERSUS WHAT IS COMING/ IS
EVIDENT ON OUR RADAR PRESENTATION JUST OFF THE LI AND NJ COASTS.
DEWPOINTS RISE CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THAT BOUNDARY... FROM NEAR 40
IN NJ TO THE LOWER 60S EAST OF BOUNDARY WHERE THERE IS ALSO A
MIDNIGHT SHIP REPORT OF MDT RAIN ABOUT 125 MI E OF KACY!
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS AT VARIOUS LEVELS ADVANCING
INTO AND TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE SEPARATE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE POSITIVE TILT SOUTHEAST
TROUGH ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
TODAY...GUSTY NE WINDS OF 25 MPH DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS FIRST
HIGH CLOUD INVADES WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN S DE AND POSSIBLY
THE SE NJ COAST BY DAYS END.
TONIGHT...A CONDUIT OF MOISTURE IN DEEP SE FLOW SHOULD NOT ONLY
DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT BUT
.25 TO AS MUCH AS ISOLATED 1 INCH AMTS ARE FCST BY 12Z MONDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN NJ. ISO THUNDER IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL NJ AFTER 05Z.
NOT DECIDED YET WHETHER TO ADD THUNDER BACK TO THE GRIDS IN NJ
LATE TONIGHT. SWI DROP BLO 0 AND CAPE IS APPROACHING THE COAST AS
WELL AS KI NEAR 34.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE AROUND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE ON SUNDAY, CLOUDS AND
EVENTUALLY SOME SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING LOW WORKS ITS
WAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.
WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER IN OUR
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT WITH THE ABSENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT
FOCUSING MECHANISM.
A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS, WE ARE ANTICIPATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND THEY COULD LEAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT
SOME LOCATIONS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWN INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY, A TREND TOWARD DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH DRY AIR BUILDING INTO
OUR REGION, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE WELL INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR CLEAR OR JUST SOME CI TO THE S AND W OF PHL.
LIGHT NE WIND.
AFTER 12Z...VFR. MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z-18Z FM VCNTY KACY
TO KGED AND SPREAD NWWD THIS AFTN COVERING MOST OF SE NJ AND MOST
OF DE BY 00Z/21. NE WIND GUSTS 20-25 KTS BY NOON. SCT SHOWERS
DEVELOP VCNTY KACY THRU MOST OF S DE DURING THE AFTN.
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS SPREAD OVER ALL THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT AND
SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY IN
NJ.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. NORTHEAST WIND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS,
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. MAINLY VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EXCEPT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VARIABLE WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE MORNING. VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.MARINE...
RAN THE TROPICAL FORMATTER ON PWS AND NO MENTION OF TROPICAL IN
THE 11PM CWF.
SCA CONTINUES AS POSTED. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD AN EXTENSION IN TIME
IS PROBABLE WITH THE 330 AM FCST ...WELL INTO MONDAY.
ANTICIPATING AT 330AM ADDING DE BAY TO THE SCA FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE VIRGINIA COAST SLIDES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR COASTAL
WATERS. THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS OVER DELAWARE BAY
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY THE LOWER PORTION, BUT FOR NOW WE HELD OFF ON
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THOUGH
SOUTH OF LITTLE EGG INLET, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FARTHER NORTH.
OUTLOOK...
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERION FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE 5
FEET ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 600 AM MONDAY.
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO OUR EAST, WAVES ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS COULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET FOR MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN SWELLS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO SUBSIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING DURING
THAT PERIOD. POSITIVE DEPARTURES AROUND A FOOT AND A QUARTER ARE
NEEDED TO REACH THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
00Z/20 MRPSSE GUIDANCE JUST RCD WILL BE AT LEAST HALF A FOOT TOO
LOW FOR TONIGHTS-SUNDAY NIGHT UPCOMING HIGH TIDE. SO FAR NO
GUIDANCE EXCEEDS THE THRESHOLD. REEVALUATING AT 230 AM.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES, RESULTING IN ELEVATED SEAS. IN ADDITION,
A SWELL COMPONENT IS PRESENT WITH LOW PRESSURE SLIDING WEST-SOUTHWEST
AND TOWARD THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC REGION. WE CAME UP WITH A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR SUNDAY, AND THE FIRST SURF ZONE FORECAST
/SRF/ FOR THE SEASON HAS BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1227A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1227A
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO 1227A
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO 1227A
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...1227A
RIP CURRENTS...
000
FXUS61 KPHI 200345
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1145 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA WILL SHIFT TO NEAR
NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 200 MILES EAST
OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA WILL MOVE WEST TOWARD THE VIRGINIA CAPES WHILE
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO MEANDERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO OUR AREA LATER TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS OUR AREA.
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS IN PROGRESS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE EARLIER FORECAST PHILOSOPHY/INFORMATION.
CHANGES ARE BECOMING EVIDENT.
THE MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY /OUR DRY VERSUS WHAT IS COMING/
IS EVIDENT ON OUR RADAR PRESENTATION JUST OFF THE LI AND NJ COASTS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS AT VARIOUS LEVELS ADVANCING
INTO AND TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE SEPARATE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE POSITIVE TILT SOUTHEAST
TROUGH ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY...GUSTY NE WINDS OF 20-25 MPH DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS
FIRST HIGH CLOUD INVADES WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN S DE AND
POSSIBLY THE SE NJ COAST BY DAYS END.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE AROUND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE ON SUNDAY, CLOUDS AND
EVENTUALLY SOME SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING LOW WORKS ITS
WAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.
WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER IN OUR
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT WITH THE ABSENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT
FOCUSING MECHANISM.
A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS, WE ARE ANTICIPATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND THEY COULD LEAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT
SOME LOCATIONS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWN INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY, A TREND TOWARD DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH DRY AIR BUILDING INTO
OUR REGION, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE WELL INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR CLEAR OR JUST SOME CI TO THE S AND W OF
PHL. LIGHT NE WIND.
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...VFR. MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z-18Z FM VCNTY
KACY TO KDOV AND SPREAD NWWD THIS AFTN COVERING MOST OF SE NJ AND
MOST OF DE BY 00Z/21. NE WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS BY NOON. SCT SHOWERS
DEVELOP VCNTY KACY THRU MOST OF S DE DURING THE AFTN.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS SPREAD OVER ALL THE REGION DURING THE
NIGHT AND SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY
IN NJ LATER ON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. NORTHEAST WIND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS,
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. MAINLY VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EXCEPT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VARIABLE WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE MORNING. VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.MARINE...
RAN THE TROPICAL FORMATTER ON PWS AND NO MENTION OF TROPICAL IN
THE 11PM CWF.
SCA CONTINUES AS POSTED. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD AN EXTENSION IN TIME
IS PROBABLE WITH THE 330 AM FCST ...WELL INTO MONDAY.
ANTICIPATING AT 330AM ADDING DE BAY TO THE SCA FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE VIRGINIA COAST SLIDES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR COASTAL
WATERS. THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS OVER DELAWARE BAY
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY THE LOWER PORTION, BUT FOR NOW WE HELD OFF ON
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THOUGH
SOUTH OF LITTLE EGG INLET, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FARTHER NORTH.
OUTLOOK...
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERION FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE 5
FEET ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 600 AM MONDAY.
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO OUR EAST, WAVES ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS COULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET FOR MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN SWELLS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO SUBSIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING DURING THAT PERIOD. POSITIVE DEPARTURES AROUND A FOOT AND
A QUARTER ARE NEEDED TO REACH THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES, RESULTING IN ELEVATED SEAS. IN ADDITION,
A SWELL COMPONENT IS PRESENT WITH LOW PRESSURE SLIDING WEST-SOUTHWEST
AND TOWARD THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC REGION. WE CAME UP WITH A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR SUNDAY, AND THE FIRST SURF ZONE FORECAST
/SRF/ FOR THE SEASON HAS BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO/DRAG 1144
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GORSE 1144
SHORT TERM...AMC/DRAG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/IOVINO 1144
MARINE...AMC/DRAG/GORSE/IOVINO 1144
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...1144
RIP CURRENTS...
000
FXUS61 KPHI 200124
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE EAST OF VIRGINIA WILL MOVE WEST
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND NEAR THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO OUR AREA LATER TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OUR REGION REMAINS IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR AS LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE LOWER DELMARVA COAST THIS
EVENING AND A RIDGE IS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE MARINE INFLUENCE HAS
CONTINUED TO ALLOW A QUICKER TEMPERATURE DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES COMPARED TO MOST INLAND LOCALES. THE HOURLY GRIDS, WITH SOME
HELP FROM THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE, WERE ADJUSTED A BIT AGAIN. THERE
WERE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
ATTM. OTHER THAN SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME, NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DECOUPLING ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE DEW POINTS COMING UP
SOME, WITH MORE OF A SPREAD NOTED ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 01Z.
THERE HAS BEEN A SWATH OF DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THUS FAR THOUGH. THIS SHOULD EVEN OUT AS
THE OVERALL MIXING CONTINUES TO LESSEN. DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW,
THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY ENOUGH, THEREFORE WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY LOWER CLOUDS OR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY...THE LOW PRES OFFSHORE...SFC AND ALOFT...IS FCST TO
SHIFT WWD TWDS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO
SHIFT GRADUALLY FROM NE TO E AND WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE TOWARDS SRN NJ AND DE. HWVR...PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...AND WE HAVE KEPT JUST A
MINIMAL CHC POP FOR PARTS OF DE AND SE NJ. SOME HI CLOUDS OVER THE
SAME AREAS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HTG ON SUNDAY...BUT OTRW MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE AROUND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE ON SUNDAY, CLOUDS AND
EVENTUALLY SOME SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING LOW WORKS ITS
WAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.
WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER IN OUR
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT WITH THE ABSENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT
FOCUSING MECHANISM.
A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS, WE ARE ANTICIPATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND THEY COULD LEAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT
SOME LOCATIONS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWN INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY, A TREND TOWARD DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH DRY AIR BUILDING INTO
OUR REGION, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE WELL INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE REGION IS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE DELMARVA COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM OUR AREA ON NORTHWARD. A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH
SOME LOCAL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
AIRMASS IS RATHER DRY, THEREFORE NO LOWER CLOUDS OR FOG ARE EXPECTED
DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING.
FOR SUNDAY, THE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOME AS LOW
PRESSURE SLIDES WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE
AIRMASS STARTING TO MOISTEN UP, ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS. ALL OF OUR TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO
START OUT VFR, THEN WE BROUGHT IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOR KMIV AND KACY. OUR CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH AT
THIS TIME ON THE TIMING. ELSEWHERE, WE HELD CONDITIONS AT VFR BUT
INDICATED A GRADUAL LOWERING CLOUD BASE. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
30-HOUR TAF FOR KPHL, WHERE BE BROUGHT IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS
DURING THE EVENING. THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE, HOWEVER FROM ABOUT THE KPHL
METRO ON EASTWARD THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT AND MIXING
TO GET SOME GUSTS TO OCCUR. THE STRONGEST WERE INDICATED AT KACY.
AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS, SOME SHOWERS MAY BE APPROACHING THE KMIV
AND KACY AREAS FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS MOVE INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. NORTHEAST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS,
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. MAINLY VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EXCEPT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VARIABLE WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE MORNING. VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.MARINE...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE VIRGINIA COAST SLIDES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR COASTAL
WATERS. THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS OVER DELAWARE BAY
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY THE LOWER PORTION, BUT FOR NOW WE HELD OFF ON
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THOUGH
SOUTH OF LITTLE EGG INLET, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FARTHER NORTH.
OUTLOOK...
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERION FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE 5
FEET ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 600 AM MONDAY.
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO OUR EAST, WAVES ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS COULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET FOR MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN SWELLS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO SUBSIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING DURING THAT PERIOD. POSITIVE DEPARTURES AROUND A FOOT AND
A QUARTER ARE NEEDED TO REACH THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES, RESULTING IN ELEVATED SEAS. IN ADDITION,
A SWELL COMPONENT IS PRESENT WITH LOW PRESSURE SLIDING WEST-SOUTHWEST
AND TOWARD THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC REGION. WE CAME UP WITH A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR SUNDAY, AND THE FIRST SURF ZONE FORECAST
/SRF/ FOR THE SEASON HAS BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/GORSE/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE
000
FXUS61 KPHI 192331
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
731 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD, REACHING THE COAST LATE ON
SUNDAY. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AND NEAR THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY BEFORE INFLUENCING
OUR REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OUR REGION REMAINS IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR AS LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS EVENING AND
A RIDGE IS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLING
FASTER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES DUE TO THE MARINE INFLUENCE, WITH
MILDER READINGS FARTHER INLAND. THE HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED A BIT AS A RESULT, WITH THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE HELPING
WITH THIS. OTHER THAN SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO
TIME, NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE COAST. DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW, THE AIRMASS IS RATHER DRY,
THEREFORE WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY LOWER CLOUDS OR FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY...THE LOW PRES OFFSHORE...SFC AND ALOFT...IS FCST TO
SHIFT WWD TWDS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO
SHIFT GRADUALLY FROM NE TO E AND WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE TOWARDS SRN NJ AND DE. HWVR...PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...AND WE HAVE KEPT JUST A
MINIMAL CHC POP FOR PARTS OF DE AND SE NJ. SOME HI CLOUDS OVER THE
SAME AREAS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HTG ON SUNDAY...BUT OTRW MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE AROUND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE ON SUNDAY, CLOUDS AND
EVENTUALLY SOME SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING LOW WORKS ITS
WAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.
WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER IN OUR
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT WITH THE ABSENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT
FOCUSING MECHANISM.
A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS, WE ARE ANTICIPATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND THEY COULD LEAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT
SOME LOCATIONS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWN INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY, A TREND TOWARD DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH DRY AIR BUILDING INTO
OUR REGION, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE WELL INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE REGION IS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE DELMARVA COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM OUR AREA ON NORTHWARD. A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH
SOME LOCAL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
AIRMASS IS RATHER DRY, THEREFORE NO LOWER CLOUDS OR FOG ARE EXPECTED
DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING.
FOR SUNDAY, THE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOME AS LOW
PRESSURE SLIDES WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE
AIRMASS STARTING TO MOISTEN UP, ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS. ALL OF OUR TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO
START OUT VFR, THEN WE BROUGHT IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOR KMIV AND KACY. OUR CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH AT
THIS TIME ON THE TIMING. ELSEWHERE, WE HELD CONDITIONS AT VFR BUT
INDICATED A GRADUAL LOWERING CLOUD BASE. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
30-HOUR TAF FOR KPHL, WHERE BE BROUGHT IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS
DURING THE EVENING. THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE, HOWEVER FROM ABOUT THE KPHL
METRO ON EASTWARD THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT AND MIXING
TO GET SOME GUSTS TO OCCUR. THE STRONGEST WERE INDICATED AT KACY.
AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS, SOME SHOWERS MAY BE APPROACHING THE KMIV
AND KACY AREAS FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS MOVE INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. NORTHEAST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS,
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. MAINLY VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EXCEPT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VARIABLE WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE MORNING. VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE CURRENT GENERAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. BASED ON STLT IMAGERY...LOW PRES IS CENTERED E OF ORF AND
IS MOVING WSW. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
OVER THE SRN PART OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. A SCA WILL CONTINUE IN
EFFECT S OF LITTLE EGG INLET...AND A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL
BE IN EFFECT FARTHER N.
OUTLOOK...
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERION FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE 5
FEET ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 600 AM MONDAY.
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO OUR EAST, WAVES ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS COULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET FOR MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN SWELLS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO SUBSIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING DURING THAT PERIOD. POSITIVE DEPARTURES AROUND A FOOT AND
A QUARTER ARE NEEDED TO REACH THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES, RESULTING IN ELEVATED SEAS. IN ADDITION,
A SWELL COMPONENT IS PRESENT WITH LOW PRESSURE SLIDING WEST-SOUTHWEST
AND TOWARD THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC REGION. WE CAME UP WITH A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR SUNDAY, AND THE FIRST SURF ZONE FORECAST
/SRF/ FOR THE SEASON HAS BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...AMC/GORSE
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE
000
FXUS61 KPHI 192130
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
530 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD, REACHING THE COAST LATE ON
SUNDAY. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AND NEAR THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY BEFORE INFLUENCING
OUR REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS COOLING THE EASTERN
ZONES, WHILE WELL INLAND TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH WARMER. THE
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP WITH THIS TREND THIS FAR.
OTHERWISE, CURRENT WX PATN IS FCST TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR A FEW CI...AND THERE IS
ESSENTIALLY NO CHC OF PRECIP. THE FCST AREA IS IN A REGION OF
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND LOW RH...WITH DEEP NE FLOW BETWN A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRES TO THE NW AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SRN MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO COOL AND THE
BNDRY LAYER TO DE-COUPLE...ESPECIALLY WELL N AND W AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY...THE LOW PRES OFFSHORE...SFC AND ALOFT...IS FCST TO
SHIFT WWD TWDS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO
SHIFT GRADUALLY FROM NE TO E AND WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE TOWARDS SRN NJ AND DE. HWVR...PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...AND WE HAVE KEPT JUST A
MINIMAL CHC POP FOR PARTS OF DE AND SE NJ. SOME HI CLOUDS OVER THE
SAME AREAS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HTG ON SUNDAY...BUT OTRW MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE AROUND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE ON SUNDAY, CLOUDS AND
EVENTUALLY SOME SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING LOW WORKS ITS
WAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.
WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER IN OUR
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT WITH THE ABSENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT
FOCUSING MECHANISM.
A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS, WE ARE ANTICIPATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND THEY COULD LEAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT
SOME LOCATIONS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWN INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY, A TREND TOWARD DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH DRY AIR BUILDING INTO
OUR REGION, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE WELL INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
CURRENT TAF FCST PERIOD. ONLY QUESTION IS THE WIND DIR AND SPEED.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENLY DECREASE FROM SE (ACY/MIV) TO NW
(RDG/ABE). WIND DIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY NE WITH SOME
VARIABILITY...BUT BECOMING MORE ELY BY SUN AFTN AS NOTED ABOVE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS
MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. NORTHEAST WIND 10
KNOTS OR LESS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS,
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. MAINLY VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EXCEPT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VARIABLE WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE MORNING. VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE CURRENT GENERAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. BASED ON STLT IMAGERY...LOW PRES IS CENTERED ABOUT 250 MI
E OF ORF AND IS MOVING WSW. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE SRN PART OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. A SCA WILL
CONTINUE IN EFFECT S OF LITTLE EGG INLET...AND A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL BE IN EFFECT FARTHER N.
OUTLOOK...
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERION FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE 5
FEET ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 600 AM MONDAY.
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO OUR EAST, WAVES ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS COULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET FOR MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN SWELLS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO SUBSIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING DURING THAT PERIOD. POSITIVE DEPARTURES AROUND A FOOT AND
A QUARTER ARE NEEDED TO REACH THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES, RESULTING IN ELEVATED SEAS. IN ADDITION,
A SWELL COMPONENT IS PRESENT WITH THE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
OFFSHORE. WE CAME UP WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
SUNDAY, AND THE FIRST SURF ZONE FORECAST /SRF/ FOR THE SEASON HAS
BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...AMC/GORSE
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE
000
FXUS61 KPHI 191946
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE
VIRGINIA CAPES. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD, REACHING
THE COAST LATE ON SUNDAY. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND NEAR THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK. A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY
BEFORE INFLUENCING OUR REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT WX PATN IS FCST TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR A FEW CI...AND THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO
CHC OF PRECIP. THE FCST AREA IS IN A REGION OF GENERAL SUBSIDENCE
AND LOW RH...WITH DEEP NE FLOW BETWN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES TO THE
NW AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO COOL AND THE BNDRY LAYER
TO DE-COUPLE...ESPECIALLY WELL N AND W AWAY FROM THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY...THE LOW PRES OFFSHORE...SFC AND ALOFT...IS FCST TO
SHIFT WWD TWDS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO
SHIFT GRADUALLY FROM NE TO E AND WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE TOWARDS SRN NJ AND DE. HWVR...PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...AND WE HAVE KEPT JUST A
MINIMAL CHC POP FOR PARTS OF DE AND SE NJ. SOME HI CLOUDS OVER THE
SAME AREAS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HTG ON SUNDAY...BUT OTRW MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE AROUND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE ON SUNDAY, CLOUDS AND
EVENTUALLY SOME SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING LOW WORKS ITS
WAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.
WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER IN OUR
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT WITH THE ABSENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT
FOCUSING MECHANISM.
A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS, WE ARE ANTICIPATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND THEY COULD LEAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT
SOME LOCATIONS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWN INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY, A TREND TOWARD DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH DRY AIR BUILDING INTO
OUR REGION, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE WELL INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
CURRENT TAF FCST PERIOD. ONLY QUESTION IS THE WIND DIR AND SPEED.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENLY DECREASE FROM SE (ACY/MIV) TO NW
(RDG/ABE). WIND DIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY NE WITH SOME
VARIABILITY...BUT BECOMING MORE ELY BY SUN AFTN AS NOTED ABOVE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS
MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. NORTHEAST WIND 10
KNOTS OR LESS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS,
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. MAINLY VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EXCEPT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VARIABLE WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE MORNING. VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE CURRENT GENERAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. BASED ON STLT IMAGERY...LOW PRES IS CENTERED ABOUT 250 MI
E OF ORF AND IS MOVING WSW. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE SRN PART OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. A SCA WILL
CONTINUE IN EFFECT S OF LITTLE EGG INLET...AND A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL BE IN EFFECT FARTHER N.
OUTLOOK...
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERION FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE 5
FEET ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 600 AM MONDAY.
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO OUR EAST, WAVES ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS COULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET FOR MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN SWELLS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO SUBSIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING DURING THAT PERIOD. POSITIVE DEPARTURES AROUND A FOOT AND
A QUARTER ARE NEEDED TO REACH THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WHILE OUR RIP CURRENT FORECAST PROGRAM HAS YET TO BEGIN FOR THE
SEASON, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS IS MODERATE TO HIGH ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE WITH THE PERSISTENT FLOW FROM THE NORTH TO EAST
QUADRANT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO
000
FXUS61 KPHI 191355
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL PROTECT OUR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ONTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA BY MONDAY THEN EDGE NORTH NEXT WEEK PROVIDING SEVERAL DAYS
OF SHOWERY WEATHER HERE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REGAIN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VSBL STLT IMAGERY THIS MORN SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR CONDS ACROSS THE
FCST AREA WITH JUST A LITTLE CI SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. A
RATHER VIGOROUS LOW IS INDICATED ABOUT 300 MI EAST OF ORF. THIS
LOW COMBINED WITH HIGH PRES TO THE WEST IS CAUSING STEADY NNE
WINDS OVER OUR MARINE AREA. SEAS AT BUOY 44009 HAVE BUILT UP TO
NEAR 9 FT...MAINLY SWELLS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HEAVIER SURF...
ENHACNED RIP CURRENTS AND POSSIBLY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LATER
THIS WEEKEND. OCEAN TEMPS AT BUOYS 44009 AND 44065 ARE STILL
AROUND 60 DEG SO AFTN TEMPS AT THE SHORE WILL REMAIN RATHER
COOL...ALTHO TEMPS WELL INLAND ARE FCST TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN YDA. MORN SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH IAD AND OKX INDICATE
FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO DRIFT CLOSER TO SHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES SO, CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
INCREASE ALONG OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER, WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING PRECIPITATION DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES THEN INCREASINGLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
500MB: A PLUS 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATION RIDGE IN THE NE USA AND
SE CANADA TO START THIS 6 DAY PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO OCCASIONALLY
SHOWERY WEATHER MONDAY POSSIBLY INTO NEXT THURSDAY AS TWO SUBSTANTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN USA. PLUS 1 STANDARD
DEVIATION RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE WEST COAST OF
THE USA.
THE DAILIES BELOW...
SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTN WITH SHOWERS ROLLING WEST
OR NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLC INTO DE AND THE SE NJ COAST. THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS SHOULD STILL BE QUITE NICE. WARMEST TEMPS
WELL WEST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
MONDAY...UNSTABLE ALOFT AND IT LOOKS SHOWERY AS THE FIRST TROUGH
ALOFT OPENS UP SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH DECENT LOW LVL INFLOW AND
WAA.
TUESDAY...COULD BE A RESPITE FROM WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT ON THE
OUTCOME BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ONSHORE FLOW EVENT
WITH SHOWERY RAINS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER.
NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING BUT SUBSIDENCE RIDGING
ALOFT SHOULD GAIN CONTROL WITH ASSOCIATED DRYING ALOFT AND HEATING
UP AT THE SFC.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY CIRRUS
CLOUD TYPE EXPECTED, WITH A FEW CUMULUS DURING THE DAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EASTERLY MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH LIGHTEST WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST, AND STRONGEST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST. ACY/MIV MAY GET A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS, OTHER TAF SITES ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
GUSTINESS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR TO START. MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS SWEEP WNW FROM COAST DE
LATE IN THE DAY AND COVERS MOST OF THE REGION LATE AT NIGHT. NE-E
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OCNL MVFR CONDS AND POSSIBLY SOME IFR IN
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER. LIGHT NE FLOW ON MONDAY
BECOMES LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND THEN E ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 5 FEET, AND THE
NORTHERN WATERS SHOULD BE GETTING THERE LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO GUST AROUND 25-30 KNOTS FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS; THE WINDS MAY NOT GUST AS MUCH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.
WE HAVE REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
DELAWARE BAY. WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT THAT WINDS WILL GUST OVER 25
KNOTS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME OR THAT WAVES WILL REACH 5
FEET. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN, IT WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR JUST AT THE
FAR SOUTHERN END OF THE BAY NEAR THE MOUTH. NEVERTHELESS, WINDS MAY
GUST BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS, AND WAVES MAY BE CHOPPY THERE.
OUTLOOK...
SCA CONDITIONS...MAINLY HAZARDOUS CRITERIA ATLC WATERS SEAS BUT
WITH OCNL GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS ON THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
THEN WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER SCA
EVENT IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THOUGH THIS IS STATED
WITH LESS CONFIDENCE DUE TO SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN EVOLUTION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A SMALL POCKET OR TWO OF SMALL STREAM HYDRO PROBLEMS MAY EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP THIS COMING WEEK. WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES
OF RAIN APPEARS PROBABLE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA FROM SLOW MOVING
SHOWERY RAINS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER. ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THUNDER OCCURS. THE ECMWF AND
UKMET ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THEIR AMOUNTS ON THIS 00Z/19 FCST
CYCLE. GREATEST VULNERABILITY WITH RESPECT TO FFG GUIDANCE IS I95
CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD...MAINLY SE PA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NJ.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGH TIDE LATER THIS MORNING, JUST BEFORE NOON, IS THE LOWER OF
THE NEXT TWO, SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS WITH THIS CYCLE.
HOWEVER, THE SUBSEQUENT TIDE SATURDAY EVENING MAY APPROACH MINOR
FLOOD LEVELS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER. CURRENT GUIDANCE REMAINS JUST BELOW MINOR FLOOD
LEVELS, BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN CASE THE FORECAST INCREASES.
OUTLOOK...
ONSHORE FLOW PROBABLY PRESENTS ITS GREATEST RISK OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THE SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE WITH A SECONDARY
RISK MONDAY NIGHT. ASTRO TIDES DECREASE SLIGHTLY DURING MID WEEK
AND SO DESPITE ANOTHER ONSHORE FLOW EVENT...POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO POSE A PROBLEM.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
OUR SRF SURF ZONE FORECAST PROGRAM SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. IN CASE ANYONE IS PLANNING ON SWIMMING IN THESE STILL CHILLY
ATLC WATERS /VARIABLE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F ALONG THE NJ AND DE
COASTS/ ... THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS SUBSTANTIAL...
ESTIMATING MODERATE TO HIGH.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
000
FXUS61 KPHI 190950
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
550 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL PROTECT OUR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ONTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA BY MONDAY THEN EDGE NORTH NEXT WEEK PROVIDING SEVERAL DAYS
OF SHOWERY WEATHER HERE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REGAIN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FAIRLY QUIET DAY AGAIN TODAY WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. WE WILL
REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN RIDGING ALOFT JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AND A
WEAK CLOSED LOW TO OUR SOUTH WHICH WILL PREVENT THICKNESSES FROM
RISING SIGNIFICANTLY. WITH THE AN EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN AREAS FURTHER INLAND. THEREFORE
WE STAYED WITH THE COOLER GUIDANCE ALONG THE COAST, AND WARMER
GUIDANCE FURTHER INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO DRIFT CLOSER TO SHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES SO, CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
INCREASE ALONG OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER, WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING PRECIPITATION DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES THEN INCREASINGLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
500MB: A PLUS 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATION RIDGE IN THE NE USA AND
SE CANADA TO START THIS 6 DAY PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO OCCASIONALLY
SHOWERY WEATHER MONDAY POSSIBLY INTO NEXT THURSDAY AS TWO SUBSTANTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN USA. PLUS 1 STANDARD
DEVIATION RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE WEST COAST OF
THE USA.
THE DAILIES BELOW...
SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTN WITH SHOWERS ROLLING WEST
OR NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLC INTO DE AND THE SE NJ COAST. THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS SHOULD STILL BE QUITE NICE. WARMEST TEMPS
WELL WEST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
MONDAY...UNSTABLE ALOFT AND IT LOOKS SHOWERY AS THE FIRST TROUGH
ALOFT OPENS UP SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH DECENT LOW LVL INFLOW AND
WAA.
TUESDAY...COULD BE A RESPITE FROM WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT ON THE
OUTCOME BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ONSHORE FLOW EVENT
WITH SHOWERY RAINS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER.
NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING BUT SUBSIDENCE RIDGING
ALOFT SHOULD GAIN CONTROL WITH ASSOCIATED DRYING ALOFT AND HEATING
UP AT THE SFC.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY CIRRUS
CLOUD TYPE EXPECTED, WITH A FEW CUMULUS DURING THE DAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EASTERLY MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH LIGHTEST WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST, AND STRONGEST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST. ACY/MIV MAY GET A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS, OTHER TAF SITES ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
GUSTINESS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR TO START. MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS SWEEP WNW FROM COAST DE
LATE IN THE DAY AND COVERS MOST OF THE REGION LATE AT NIGHT. NE-E
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OCNL MVFR CONDS AND POSSIBLY SOME IFR IN
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER. LIGHT NE FLOW ON MONDAY
BECOMES LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND THEN E ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 5 FEET, AND THE
NORTHERN WATERS SHOULD BE GETTING THERE LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO GUST AROUND 25-30 KNOTS FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS; THE WINDS MAY NOT GUST AS MUCH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.
WE HAVE REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
DELAWARE BAY. WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT THAT WINDS WILL GUST OVER 25
KNOTS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME OR THAT WAVES WILL REACH 5
FEET. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN, IT WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR JUST AT THE
FAR SOUTHERN END OF THE BAY NEAR THE MOUTH. NEVERTHELESS, WINDS MAY
GUST BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS, AND WAVES MAY BE CHOPPY THERE.
OUTLOOK...
SCA CONDITIONS...MAINLY HAZARDOUS CRITERIA ATLC WATERS SEAS BUT
WITH OCNL GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS ON THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
THEN WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER SCA
EVENT IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THOUGH THIS IS STATED
WITH LESS CONFIDENCE DUE TO SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN EVOLUTION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A SMALL POCKET OR TWO OF SMALL STREAM HYDRO PROBLEMS MAY EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP THIS COMING WEEK. WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES
OF RAIN APPEARS PROBABLE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA FROM SLOW MOVING
SHOWERY RAINS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER. ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THUNDER OCCURS. THE ECMWF AND
UKMET ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THEIR AMOUNTS ON THIS 00Z/19 FCST
CYCLE. GREATEST VULNERABILITY WITH RESPECT TO FFG GUIDANCE IS I95
CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD...MAINLY SE PA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NJ.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGH TIDE LATER THIS MORNING, JUST BEFORE NOON, IS THE LOWER OF
THE NEXT TWO, SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS WITH THIS CYCLE.
HOWEVER, THE SUBSEQUENT TIDE SATURDAY EVENING MAY APPROACH MINOR
FLOOD LEVELS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER. CURRENT GUIDANCE REMAINS JUST BELOW MINOR FLOOD
LEVELS, BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN CASE THE FORECAST INCREASES.
OUTLOOK...
ONSHORE FLOW PROBABLY PRESENTS ITS GREATEST RISK OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THE SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE WITH A SECONDARY
RISK MONDAY NIGHT. ASTRO TIDES DECREASE SLIGHTLY DURING MID WEEK
AND SO DESPITE ANOTHER ONSHORE FLOW EVENT...POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO POSE A PROBLEM.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
OUR SRF SURF ZONE FORECAST PROGRAM SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. IN CASE ANYONE IS PLANNING ON SWIMMING IN THESE STILL CHILLY
ATLC WATERS /VARIABLE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F ALONG THE NJ AND DE
COASTS/ ... THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS SUBSTANTIAL...
ESTIMATING MODERATE TO HIGH.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 549A
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG 549A
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 549A
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 549A
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...549A
000
FXUS61 KPHI 190804
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
404 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL PROTECT OUR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ONTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA BY MONDAY THEN EDGE NORTH NEXT WEEK PROVIDING SEVERAL DAYS
OF SHOWERY WEATHER HERE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REGAIN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER HERE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FAIRLY QUIET DAY AGAIN TODAY WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. WE WILL
REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN RIDGING ALOFT JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AND A
WEAK CLOSED LOW TO OUR SOUTH WHICH WILL PREVENT THICKNESSES FROM
RISING SIGNIFICANTLY. WITH THE AN EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN AREAS FURTHER INLAND. THEREFORE
WE STAYED WITH THE COOLER GUIDANCE ALONG THE COAST, AND WARMER
GUIDANCE FURTHER INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO DRIFT CLOSER TO SHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES SO, CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
INCREASE ALONG OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER, WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING PRECIPITATION DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES THEN
INCREASINGLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
500MB: A PLUS 1 TO 2 SD RIDGE IN THE NE USA AND SE CANADA TO START
THIS 6 DAY PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO OCCASIONALLY SHOWERY WEATHER
MONDAY POSSIBLY INTO NEXT THURSDAY AS TWO SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN USA. PLUS 1 SD RIDGING DEVELOPS
IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE
TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE W COAST OF THE USA.
THE DAILIES BELOW...
SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTN WITH SHOWERS ROLLING WEST
OR NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLC INTO DE AND THE SE NJ COAST. THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS SHOULD STILL BE QUITE NICE. WARMEST TEMPS
WELL WEST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
MONDAY...UNSTABLE ALOFT AND IT LOOKS SHOWERY AS THE FIRST TROUGH
ALOFT OPENS UP SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH DECENT LOW LVL INFLOW AND
WAA.
TUESDAY...COULD BE A RESPITE FROM WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT ON THE
OUTCOME BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ONSHORE FLOW EVENT
WITH SHOWERY RAINS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER.
FRIDAY/NEXT SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING BUT SUBSIDENCE
RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD GAIN CONTROL WITH ASSOCIATED DRYING ALOFT
AND HEATING UP.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY CIRRUS
CLOUD TYPE EXPECTED, WITH A FEW CUMULUS DURING THE DAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EASTERLY MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH LIGHTEST WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST, AND STRONGEST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST. ACY/MIV MAY GET A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS, OTHER TAF SITES ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
GUSTINESS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOWER CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OCNL
MVFR AND POSSIBLY SOME IFR MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE
COAST SUN NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 5 FEET, AND THE
NORTHERN WATERS SHOULD BE GETTING THERE LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO GUST AROUND 25-30 KNOTS FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS; THE WINDS MAY NOT GUST AS MUCH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.
WE HAVE REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
DELAWARE BAY. WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT THAT WINDS WILL GUST OVER 25
KNOTS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME OR THAT WAVES WILL REACH 5
FEET. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN, IT WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR JUST AT THE
FAR SOUTHERN END OF THE BAY NEAR THE MOUTH. NEVERTHELESS, WINDS MAY
GUST BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS, AND WAVES MAY BE CHOPPY THERE.
OUTLOOK...
SCA CONDITIONS...MAINLY HAZARDOUS SEAS BUT WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KTS
ON THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY....ESPECIALLY S NJ AND DE
ATLC WATERS. ANOTHER SCA EVENT IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THOUGH THIS IS STATED WITH LESS CONFIDENCE DUE TO SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN EVOLUTION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A SMALL POCKET OR TWO OF SMALL STREAM HYDRO PROBLEMS MAY EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP THIS COMING WEEK. WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES
OF RAIN APPEARS PROBABLE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA FROM SLOW MOVING
SHOWERY RAINS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER. ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THUNDER OCCURS. THE ECMWF AND
UKMET ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THEIR AMOUNTS ON THIS 00Z/19 FCST
CYCLE. GREATEST VULNERABILITY WITH RESPECT TO FFG GUIDANCE IS I95
CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD...MAINLY SE PA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NJ.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGH TIDE LATER THIS MORNING, JUST BEFORE NOON, IS THE LOWER OF
THE NEXT TWO, SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS WITH THIS CYCLE.
HOWEVER, THE SUBSEQUENT TIDE SATURDAY EVENING MAY APPROACH MINOR
FLOOD LEVELS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER. CURRENT GUIDANCE REMAINS JUST BELOW MINOR FLOOD
LEVELS, BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN CASE THE FORECAST INCREASES.
OUTLOOK...
ONSHORE FLOW PROBABLY PRESENTS ITS GREATEST RISK OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THE SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE WITH A SECONDARY
RISK MONDAY NIGHT. ASTRO TIDES DECREASE SLIGHTLY DURING MID WEEK
AND SO DESPITE ANOTHER ONSHORE FLOW EVENT...POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO POSE A PROBLEM.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 403
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON 403
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON 403
LONG TERM...DRAG 403
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 403
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 403
HYDROLOGY...403
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...403
|
