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000
FXUS65 KLKN 210508
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1008 PM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
COOLER AIR TO DROP INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA.
&&
.UPDATE...RAISED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY TO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR FIRE ZONES 454...455 AND 470. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY OVER FIRE
ZONES 454...455 AND 470 TO A RED FLAG WARNING. EXPECT SOME SITES
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND CRITERIA...WHILE OTHERS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CRITERIA. STRONGEST WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FIRE ZONES. WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
STRONGER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY...HOWEVER HUMIDITIES WILL BE ABOVE
15 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. MAIN
CONCERN FOR WIND AND RH ISSUES TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS ZONES 455
AND 457 WHERE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...WHILE WINDS GUST
INTO THE 30S.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 354 PM /
SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
COOLER AIR TO DROP INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AN ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME NORTHWEST HUMBOLDT COUNTY
SUNDAY EVENING WITH LI`S NEAR 0. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTHERN NEVADA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THAT COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH...OR HIGHER...BY THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS COULD VERY WELL
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AS 850 MB GEFS ANOMALIES DEPICT +4 TO
+5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ELKO COUNTY. AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STILL BE WARM
BUT WILL COOL ABOUT 13 TO 16 DEGREES FROM MONDAY`S HIGHS.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL COMMENCE THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS
TIME PROGRESSES...A SIGNIFICANT BUNDLE OF ENERGY IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WEST COAST AMPLIFYING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CUTOFF LOW BEING POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS WITH REGARD
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE CUTOFF WHICH IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON BOTH THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN GLOBAL. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS HAVE VARYING
SOLUTIONS ON THE SPEED AND STRENGTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
NEXT WEEKEND.
THE IMPACTS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES/STRENGTHENS
IS AN INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS /15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH/
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHTER WITH THE SYSTEM CLOSE IN PROXIMITY TO THE CWA AND
THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION WISE...SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED ALONG THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS
DAYTIME INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8 DEG C AND PWATS OF A THIRD TO A HALF INCH WILL HELP SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD DAYTIME AND EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS AND SHWRS EACH OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL EACH DAY RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL READING
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER...FOR THIS EVENING AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF FIRE ZONE 467. BY MONDAY
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM. WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH...COUPLED WITH RH`S BELOW 15
PERCENT WILL BRING RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO FIRE ZONES 468 AND 469.
CONFIDENCE ON WIND SPEEDS REACHING FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS NOT AS
HIGH IN ZONES 454...455...AND 470 SO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME WITH GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS ALL ZONES...HOWEVER...ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES RH`S ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 15 PERCENT. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN ZONES 455 AND 457 AND A RED FLAG WARNING MAY NEED
TO BE ISSUED ON TUESDAY FOR THESE ZONES...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
GUIDANCE AS A RESULT. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT DECREASING WINDS...MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AND HIGHER RH VALUES SO DO NOT EXPECT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS TO BE MET.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR NORTHERN
ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO
COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY.
&&
$$
96
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000
FXUS65 KVEF 210406
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
905 PM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY
TO A DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...INCREASED
WINDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.UPDATE...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT THE
GOING FORECAST TRENDS DETAILED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. NO
IMMEDIATE CHANGES NEEDED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
224 PM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...SATELLITE SHOWS A
FEW CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTY...
OTHERWISE SKIES ARE SUNNY WHICH IS GREAT FOR THE VIEWING OF THE
ECLIPSE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AS OF 2
PM...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.
PLEASANT OVERNIGHT IN STORE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RIDGE
AXIS OVER US TODAY WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY AS
LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE/DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH STARTS TO
MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. WILL START TO SEE
SOME CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH INCREASE OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA AND CENTRAL NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL MORE DEGREES FROM TODAY
UNDER DEEPER MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO HIGHER WIND SPEEDS.
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WITH
JETSTREAM RUNNING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE NORTHERN NEVADA STATE LINE.
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN AREAS. BIG THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE INCREASE IN
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. HI-RES MODELS HINTING AT A WEAK DOWNSLOPE
EVENT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. DO NOT BELIEVE A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...JETSTREAM SAGS
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AND SOUTHERN UTAH AS TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SHIFT IN WINDS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS...AND INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE / A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW WILL START TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN
COAST ON THURSDAY...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS PLACING THE CENTER OF LOW
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE EC AND GFS
SWING THE LOW EAST AND OVER THE FORECAST ARE ON SATURDAY...WHILE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HOLDS BACK BEFORE LIFTING THE LOW NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY. OVERALL THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO THE EXISTING
FORECAST...EXCEPT FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
AND OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AS MODELS SOLUTIONS ALL
HAVE TRENDED DEEPER WITH THE SYSTEM. THAT BEING SAID...EVEN THOUGH
PRECIP CHANCES ARE BETTER...WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE THE MAIN IMPACT
AND ITS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST WIND ADVISORIES/RED FLAG PRODUCTS WILL
BE NEEDED...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE EACH DAY AND LOOK TO BE DOWN TO 8-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT ANY GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 20KTS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
INCREASING SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS
WILL AVERAGE AROUND 20KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE BELOW
15 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS EACH DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE
MONDAY AND A BIT MORE ON TUESDAY. VERY LOCALIZED CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
MAY BE MET ACROSS ARIZONA FIRE ZONE 102 IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME
BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION. AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY WHICH WOULD INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WIND GUSTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY EXCEED 35 MPH OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
PIERCE/KENNEDY
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KLKN 202254
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
354 PM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
COOLER AIR TO DROP INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AN ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME NORTHWEST HUMBOLDT COUNTY
SUNDAY EVENING WITH LI`S NEAR 0. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTHERN NEVADA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THAT COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH...OR HIGHER...BY THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS COULD VERY WELL
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AS 850 MB GEFS ANOMALIES DEPICT +4 TO
+5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ELKO COUNTY. AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STILL BE WARM
BUT WILL COOL ABOUT 13 TO 16 DEGREES FROM MONDAY`S HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL COMMENCE THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS
TIME PROGRESSES...A SIGNIFICANT BUNDLE OF ENERGY IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WEST COAST AMPLIFYING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CUTOFF LOW BEING POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS WITH REGARD
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE CUTOFF WHICH IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON BOTH THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN GLOBAL. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS HAVE VARYING
SOLUTIONS ON THE SPEED AND STRENGTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
NEXT WEEKEND.
THE IMPACTS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES/STRENGTHENS
IS AN INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS /15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH/
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHTER WITH THE SYSTEM CLOSE IN PROXIMITY TO THE CWA AND
THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION WISE...SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED ALONG THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS
DAYTIME INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8 DEG C AND PWATS OF A THIRD TO A HALF INCH WILL HELP SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD DAYTIME AND EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS AND SHWRS EACH OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL EACH DAY RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL READING
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...FOR THIS EVENING AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF FIRE ZONE 467. BY MONDAY
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM. WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH...COUPLED WITH RH`S BELOW 15
PERCENT WILL BRING RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO FIRE ZONES 468 AND 469.
CONFIDENCE ON WIND SPEEDS REACHING FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS NOT AS
HIGH IN ZONES 454...455...AND 470 SO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME WITH GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS ALL ZONES...HOWEVER...ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES RH`S ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 15 PERCENT. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN ZONES 455 AND 457 AND A RED FLAG WARNING MAY NEED
TO BE ISSUED ON TUESDAY FOR THESE ZONES...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
GUIDANCE AS A RESULT. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT DECREASING WINDS...MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AND HIGHER RH VALUES SO DO NOT EXPECT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS TO BE MET.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...
SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH
CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER
COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.
&&
$$
90/89/89/90/86
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000
FXUS65 KREV 202222
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
322 PM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS. THE MAIN
FEATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WILL BE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY.
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN MODEST/FLAT NEAR THE SIERRA
AND DOWNWIND OF LASSEN PEAK. HOWEVER, WITH CONVERGENCE INCREASING BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS WEST WINDS PUSH OVER THE SIERRA
INTO WESTERN NEVADA, MORE CUMULUS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT
OFF THE SIERRA. VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW
EXCEPT POSSIBLY MODERATE DOWNWIND OF LASSEN PEAK AND OVER EASTERN
MONO-WESTERN MINERAL COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST TERRAIN/CONVERGENT FLOW
EXISTS.
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OVER OREGON AND WASHINGTON. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
FOR MORE ON WINDS AND HUMIDITIES MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT, LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH AS A COOL FRONT
MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. HOWEVER, NOTE THAT THE CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IS DWINDLING WITH THE MAIN FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER OREGON.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL
SEE A DROP TO NEAR AVERAGE AND THEN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS
COLDER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY EACH DAY AS A SOLID PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES BETWEEN NORTHERN
NEVADA/CALIFORNIA AND THE MUCH WARMER SOUTHERN NEVADA. SNYDER
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
THROUGH MEMORIAL WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WEST
COAST BEGINNING THURSDAY, THEN EJECT EASTWARD BY MEMORIAL DAY. MODELS
HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN BUT
HAVE STRUGGLED WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LOW. THE 12Z GFS/EC
AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THU/FRI BUT WITH MUCH MORE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM NOW LIES WITH HOW
QUICKLY THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. BOTH THE EC AND GFS ARE MUCH
QUICKER IN EJECTING THE LOW OUT OF THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING
THE FASTEST. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A
VERY LARGE SPREAD IN TIMING.
THERE WILL BE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY DUE TO BETTER AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE, DEFORMATION, AND INSTABILITY IN THE LOW-MID LAYERS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE BUT THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL LIE TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTH. AS A RESULT, LEFT THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST
FRIDAY AND KEPT IN RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. IF CURRENT TREND
HOLDS, HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S WITH 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE SIERRA. I DID WARM
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AND INCREASED SNOW LEVELS SAT/SUN FOR
THE FASTER MOVING TREND WITH THE UPPER LOW. FUENTES
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS 21Z-
04Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND THE JET STREAM
REACH THE WEST COAST. GUSTS AT KRNO-KMMH MAY EXCEED 35 KTS, WITH
PEAK GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 KTS FOR KTRK AND KTVL. SIERRA RIDGE WINDS
COULD REACH 50 KTS, WITH TURBULENT APPROACHES FOR ALL TERMINALS.
BRONG/TF
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WINDS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC
TROUGH AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS EVENING,
BUT MORE OF THE TYPICAL ZEPHYR AND NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY.
AS FOR MONDAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
PASS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ALMOST ALL AREAS WILL SEE WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG
THE 395 CORRIDOR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS MINERAL COUNTY WHERE
WINDS ALOFT DO NOT APPEAR TO INCREASE UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING
TOMORROW. AS FOR HUMIDITY, IT WILL BE AROUND 20% NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE-GERLACH AS WELL AS THE TAHOE BASIN AND DROP TO 10-15%
SOUTH OF THERE. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, UPGRADED THE CURRENT WATCH TO
A WARNING. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LOCAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS
SOUTH OF SUSANVILLE/GERLACH IN 278/458, LEFT THOSE ZONES OUT DUE TO
THE MORE LOCALIZED NATURE THERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING THEN WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING. THE ONE EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE MONO COUNTY OVERNIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WEAK DOWNSLOPE SIGNATURE THERE WITH
LOCAL 4KM WRF SHOWING WINDS CONTINUING NEAR THE 395 CORRIDOR UNTIL
ALMOST 5 AM. BELIEVE THAT IS A BIT LONG, BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN UP
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT IF NOT A LITTLE LATER. WITH THE WINDS
CONTINUING THERE, RH WILL ALSO STRUGGLE TO RISE. IT SHOULD GET UP
AROUND 20%, BUT NOT MUCH HIGHER UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDE. WITH GUSTS
OF 40-45 MPH POSSIBLE, HAVE CONTINUED THE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM THERE.
FOR TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE COME IN WITH LESS LLVL MOISTURE. WHILE IT
WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER, RH WILL NOT COME UP AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. IN ADDITION, A STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
SUSTAINED WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AREAWIDE WITH GUSTS TO
35 MPH. RH LOOKS LOWEST FOR 453-459 WHERE TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST SO
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH THERE. OTHER AREAS WILL BE CLOSE, BUT
SINCE RH WILL BE MARGINAL AND WINDS WEAKER THAN MON WILL NOT ISSUE.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. WITH MORE DRY AIR ALOFT AT
LEAST NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-80, IT IS POSSIBLE ANOTHER RED FLAG EVENT
COULD OCCUR. AT THIS POINT, BASED OFF THE GFS/EC IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE WOULD BE THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.
THE TROUGH LOOKS TO FINALLY SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRI/SAT WITH SOME
RAIN AND MTN SNOW POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON HOW IT SETS UP, PORTIONS OF
THE AREA COULD SEE WETTING RAINS ALONG WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY NVZ450-453.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
NVZ453-459.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 2 AM PDT TUESDAY BELOW 9000
FEET FOR CAZ273.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KVEF 202124
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
224 PM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY
TO A DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...INCREASED
WINDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...SATELLITE SHOWS A
FEW CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST LINCOLN
COUNTY...OTHERWISE SKIES ARE SUNNY WHICH IS GREAT FOR THE VIEWING OF
THE ECLIPSE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AS OF 2
PM...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.
PLEASANT OVERNIGHT IN STORE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RIDGE
AXIS OVER US TODAY WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY AS
LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE/DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH STARTS TO
MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. WILL START TO SEE
SOME CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH INCREASE OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA AND CENTRAL NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL MORE DEGREES FROM TODAY
UNDER DEEPER MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO HIGHER WIND SPEEDS.
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WITH
JETSTREAM RUNNING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE NORTHERN NEVADA STATE LINE.
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN AREAS. BIG THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE INCREASE IN
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. HI-RES MODELS HINTING AT A WEAK DOWNSLOPE
EVENT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. DO NOT BELIEF A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...JETSTREAM SAG
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AND SOUTHERN UTAH AS TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SHIFT IN WINDS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS...AND INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE / A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW WILL START TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN
COAST ON THURSDAY...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS PLACING THE CENTER OF LOW
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE EC AND GFS
SWING THE LOW EAST AND OVER THE FORECAST ARE ON SATURDAY...WHILE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HOLDS BACK BEFORE LIFTING THE LOW NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY. OVERALL THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO THE EXISTING
FORECAST...EXCEPT FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
AND OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AS MODELS SOLUTIONS ALL
HAVE TRENDED DEEPER WITH THE SYSTEM. THAT BEING SAID...EVEN THOUGH
PRECIP CHANCES ARE BETTER...WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE THE MAIN IMPACT
AND ITS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST WIND ADVISORIES/RED FLAG PRODUCTS WILL
BE NEEDED...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE EACH DAY AND LOOK TO BE DOWN TO 8-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT ANY GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 20KTS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
INCREASING SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS
WILL AVERAGE AROUND 20KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE BELOW
15 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS EACH DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE
MONDAY AND A BIT MORE ON TUESDAY. VERY LOCALIZED CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
MAY BE MET ACROSS ARIZONA FIRE ZONE 102 IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME
BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION. AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY WHICH WOULD INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WIND GUSTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY EXCEED 35 MPH OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
PIERCE/KENNEDY
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KREV 201802
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1102 AM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST MODELS AND THE TREND FROM YESTERDAY, I RAISED
CLOUD COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTH AND JUST EAST OF
RENO AS WELL AS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH. FOR RENO-CARSON
CITY AND THE LAKE TAHOE AREA, THIS STILL SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM
AS I EXPECT WEST WINDS TO KICK ANY FLAT CLOUDS TO OVERHEAD OR
EAST OF THOSE AREAS BY AROUND 6 PM SO THEY WILL NOT BLOCK THE SUN
ABOVE THE WESTERN HORIZON. THERE COULD BE MORE ISSUES EAST OF
RENO, OVER MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES, AND NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH
WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN THOSE AREAS. SNYDER
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012/
SHORT TERM...
ECLIPSE DAY HAS FINALLY ARRIVED AND PROSPECTS REMAIN VERY GOOD FOR
VIEWING OF THE EVENT, WITH MINIMAL OBSTRUCTION FROM CLOUDS IN THE
RENO-CARSON AND TAHOE VICINITY EASTWARD ACROSS PYRAMID LAKE AND
WEST CENTRAL NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED TO SPARSE FLAT CUMULUS MAINLY BEFORE THE ANNULAR STAGE.
THE ONLY AREAS THAT MAY HAVE ISSUES WITH A PARTIALLY BLOCKED VIEW
WILL BE IN NORTHEAST CA NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
NV, AND FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF MONO, MINERAL, LYON AND
CHURCHILL COUNTIES. DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL COMBINE WITH SLIGHT INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ABOUT 15 TO 30
PERCENT CUMULUS COVERAGE IN THESE LOCATIONS. T-STORM FORMATION IS
UNLIKELY DUE TO ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING, MARGINAL MOISTURE,
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR
90 IN WESTERN NV AND LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE TAHOE BASIN. A
COMMON LEE SIDE ZEPHYR BREEZE IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS 20-30 MPH.
FOR MONDAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS ON WIND SPEEDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE OREGON BORDER SO ALL AREAS WILL BE KEPT DRY. COOLING WILL BE
MOST PRONOUNCED IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER NORTHEAST CA-
NORTHWEST NV AS INCREASED CLOUDS COMBINE WITH A MORE NOTABLE DROP
IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL WITH MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS STILL REACHING THE 80S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT, COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH ACROSS WESTERN NV WITH
LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES MAY BRUSH
ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH BUT EVEN THIS IS LOOKING
LESS LIKELY AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM STAYS NORTH
OF THE OREGON BORDER. SOUTH OF THIS JET STREAM CORE, DYNAMICS WILL
BE UNFAVORABLE FOR GENERATING SHOWERS. RIDGE LEVEL WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS 700 MB FLOW INCREASES TO 40-45 KT,
WHILE IN LOWER ELEVATIONS SOME GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH GUSTS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10
MPH LOWER COMPARED TO MONDAY. MJD
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN ISSUE IS THE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY
AND PERSISTING INTO MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. AS A RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
NEAR 160W WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, THE UPPER FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST
ALLOWING A COLD LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. A BLOCKING UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES, WILL
HELP MAINTAIN THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH OVER NEVADA THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE
AWARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW IN THE SIERRA AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE COMPACT COLD
CORE WITH THE LOW. THE TREND IN THE LATEST SOLUTIONS IS FOR THE
COLD CORE TO REACH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE FRIDAY, THEN SWING
INTO WESTERN NEVADA BY SATURDAY AND PUSH INTO EASTERN NEVADA SUNDAY.
DUE TO THE COMPACT SIZE OF THE LOW, A SMALL CHANGE IN THE TRACK
COULD RESULT IN LARGE FORECAST DIFFERENCES FOR TEMPERATURE,
PRECIPITATION, SNOW LEVEL, AND WIND.
AHEAD OF THE LOW ON THURSDAY A DRY AND BREEZY DAY IS POSSIBLE AS THE
JET REACHES I-80 AND ABUNDANT DRY AIR ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. BY FRIDAY, MODELS AGREE IN WRAPPING THE DRY AIR INTO THE
LOW, LIMITING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNDER A DEFORMATION ZONE NORTH
OF PORTOLA TO GERLACH. THE DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH COULD BE AS MUCH AS 0.50-1.00 INCHES.
DID LOWER THE SNOW LEVEL AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE LOW REACHES THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. UNDER
THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW SATURDAY, SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP AS LOW AS
5000-6000 FEET AT NIGHT AND 5500-6500 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON-
EARLY EVENING HOURS. IF THE LOW PASSES OVERHEAD, AFTERNOON HIGHS
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA MAY BE STUCK IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S WITH 40S TO
LOW 50S IN THE SIERRA. BRONG
FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN CONCERN IS THE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY ON MONDAY WITH A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 273, 450 AND 453.
A TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE COAST WITH WINDS ALOFT INCREASING AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA MONDAY MORNING, PERHAPS REACHING
SUSANVILLE/GERLACH. IT WILL STALL NEAR THERE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE RAPIDLY PUSHING TOWARD I-80 AS THE JET STREAM MOVES INTO THE
OREGON COAST. BEHIND THE FRONT, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
KEEPING MINIMUM HUMIDITY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE/GERLACH NEAR AND ABOVE
20%, WITH VALUES BELOW 15% SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR AND ALONG I-80/US-395 IN THE
RENO-CARSON-MINDEN AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS
35-45 MPH. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER, WITH GUSTS
TO 35 MPH FOR MONO COUNTY AND INTO LYON, PERSHING AND CHURCHILL
COUNTIES. FOR MINERAL, ZONE 459, GUSTS DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG BUT MAY
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 MPH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS ACROSS MONO COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT WHERE GUSTY WINDS
COULD CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT DUE TO A POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPE EVENT. THE
DOWNSLOPE SIGNATURE IS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, BUT GUSTS
TO 30-35 MPH ALONG US-395 SHOULD PERSIST WELL AFTER SUNSET AS
HUMIDITY SLOWLY RISES ABOVE 20%.
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL WEAKEN BUT STILL
BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH AS THE JET REMAINS OVERHEAD. HUMIDITY
WILL INCREASE AS AFTERNOON HIGHS DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY, SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS. BRONG/WALLMANN
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS 21Z-04Z.
WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND THE JET STREAM REACH
THE WEST COAST. GUSTS AT KRNO-KMMH MAY EXCEED 35 KTS, WITH PEAK
GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 KTS FOR KTRK AND KTVL. SIERRA RIDGE WINDS COULD
REACH 50 KTS, WITH TURBULENT APPROACHES FOR ALL TERMINALS. BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
NVZ450-453.
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
CAZ273.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KVEF 201624 AAA
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
924 AM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO MONDAY WILL GIVE
WAY TO A DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS.
&&
.UPDATE...SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH CLOSEST CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. SO WE ARE LOOKING AT
PERFECT CONDITIONS LATER TODAY TO OBSERVE THE ANNULAR SOLAR ECLIPSE.
AS OF 9 AM...TEMPERATURES WARMER BY SEVERAL DEGREES THAN YESTERDAY
AND 12Z VEGAS SOUNDING ALGORITHM KICKED OUT A HIGH OF 96 FOR TODAY.
FORECAST PACKAGE IS GOOD....NO UPDATE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
248 AM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL LEAD TO SUNNY
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING 5-8 DEGREES COMPARED TO
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO UTAH MONDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AS A TROUGH PUSHES
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. MOST AREAS WILL SEE AFTERNOON
WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WHILE SKIES REMAIN SUNNY AND
TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER FEW DEGREES. A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AS A SHALLOW TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
COOLING AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ONE SHORTWAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE AND
KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL. THE FLOW WILL START TO TURN
MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM AND ALL SHOW A CLOSED LOW PUSHING
INTO NORTHERN CA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL CA BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY ON FRIDAY. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL CA/NV BEFORE
SHIFTING NORTHEAST AND LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND
HAVE INCREASED POPS JUST A BIT FOR PORTIONS OF INYO AND ESMERALDA
COUNTIES. WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE THE MAIN IMPACT AND ITS LIKELY
THAT AT LEAST WIND ADVISORIES/RED FLAG PRODUCTS WILL BE NEEDED BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH COOLER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL FROM THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE AREA. WIND DIRECTION WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE BELOW 15
PERCENT IN MOST AREAS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE A
BIT MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY WHICH WOULD INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY EXCEED 35 MPH OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HARRISON/GORELOW
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KLKN 201051
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
351 AM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY TODAY...WITH BOTH WIND AND TEMPERATURES
INCREASING MONDAY. COOLER AIR DROPS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEVADA THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR
SKIES OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. WARM TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER AND SOUTH OF THE GREAT BASIN. AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL TURN
THE FLOW ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH
GUSTING 25 TO 40 MPH IN MOST AREAS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY SETTLE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER. IN ADDITION THE APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANY SHOWERS AGAIN CONFINED TO
THE FAR NORTH. MUCH THE SAME STORY ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY CLOSED
UPPER LOW FORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIF COAST. THIS WILL KEEP
THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHWESTERN NV. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY
WARM UP ACROSS THE EAST AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST
BRINGING UP WARMER AIR. ON SATURDAY THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER
BRINGING UPPER LOW INTO WESTERN NEVADA WHILE THE GFS STILL HAS THE
LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIF. COMPROMISED AND KEPT SHOWERS MAINLY
CONFINED TO WESTERN NV.
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 10 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND MONDAY ACROSS
THE REGION. A TROUGH APPROACHING THE GREAT BASIN WILL LEAD TO
INSTABILITY OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF ZONE 467 THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...AND ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
IN ADDITION TO TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW MORE DEGREES ON
MONDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND COMBINE WITH
LOW HUMIDITIES OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 454...455...468...469 AND
470. THE WATCH FOR ZONE 468 WAS ADDED THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN NEVADA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHERE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. THE TROUGH DIGS
A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH ON FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER
COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT
RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN
ELKO COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.
&&
$$
96/91/91/96
000
FXUS65 KREV 201022
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
322 AM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...
ECLIPSE DAY HAS FINALLY ARRIVED AND PROSPECTS REMAIN VERY GOOD FOR
VIEWING OF THE EVENT, WITH MINIMAL OBSTRUCTION FROM CLOUDS IN THE
RENO-CARSON AND TAHOE VICINITY EASTWARD ACROSS PYRAMID LAKE AND
WEST CENTRAL NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED TO SPARSE FLAT CUMULUS MAINLY BEFORE THE ANNULAR STAGE.
THE ONLY AREAS THAT MAY HAVE ISSUES WITH A PARTIALLY BLOCKED VIEW
WILL BE IN NORTHEAST CA NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
NV, AND FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF MONO, MINERAL, LYON AND
CHURCHILL COUNTIES. DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL COMBINE WITH SLIGHT INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ABOUT 15 TO 30
PERCENT CUMULUS COVERAGE IN THESE LOCATIONS. T-STORM FORMATION IS
UNLIKELY DUE TO ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING, MARGINAL MOISTURE,
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR
90 IN WESTERN NV AND LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE TAHOE BASIN. A
COMMON LEE SIDE ZEPHYR BREEZE IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS 20-30 MPH.
FOR MONDAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS ON WIND SPEEDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE OREGON BORDER SO ALL AREAS WILL BE KEPT DRY. COOLING WILL BE
MOST PRONOUNCED IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER NORTHEAST CA-
NORTHWEST NV AS INCREASED CLOUDS COMBINE WITH A MORE NOTABLE DROP
IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL WITH MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS STILL REACHING THE 80S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT, COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH ACROSS WESTERN NV WITH
LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES MAY BRUSH
ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH BUT EVEN THIS IS LOOKING
LESS LIKELY AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM STAYS NORTH
OF THE OREGON BORDER. SOUTH OF THIS JET STREAM CORE, DYNAMICS WILL
BE UNFAVORABLE FOR GENERATING SHOWERS. RIDGE LEVEL WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS 700 MB FLOW INCREASES TO 40-45 KT,
WHILE IN LOWER ELEVATIONS SOME GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH GUSTS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10
MPH LOWER COMPARED TO MONDAY. MJD
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN ISSUE IS THE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY
AND PERSISTING INTO MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. AS A RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
NEAR 160W WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, THE UPPER FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST
ALLOWING A COLD LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. A BLOCKING UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES, WILL
HELP MAINTAIN THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH OVER NEVADA THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE
AWARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW IN THE SIERRA AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE COMPACT COLD
CORE WITH THE LOW. THE TREND IN THE LATEST SOLUTIONS IS FOR THE
COLD CORE TO REACH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE FRIDAY, THEN SWING
INTO WESTERN NEVADA BY SATURDAY AND PUSH INTO EASTERN NEVADA SUNDAY.
DUE TO THE COMPACT SIZE OF THE LOW, A SMALL CHANGE IN THE TRACK
COULD RESULT IN LARGE FORECAST DIFFERENCES FOR TEMPERATURE,
PRECIPITATION, SNOW LEVEL, AND WIND.
AHEAD OF THE LOW ON THURSDAY A DRY AND BREEZY DAY IS POSSIBLE AS THE
JET REACHES I-80 AND ABUNDANT DRY AIR ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. BY FRIDAY, MODELS AGREE IN WRAPPING THE DRY AIR INTO THE
LOW, LIMITING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNDER A DEFORMATION ZONE NORTH
OF PORTOLA TO GERLACH. THE DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH COULD BE AS MUCH AS 0.50-1.00 INCHES.
DID LOWER THE SNOW LEVEL AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE LOW REACHES THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. UNDER
THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW SATURDAY, SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP AS LOW AS
5000-6000 FEET AT NIGHT AND 5500-6500 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON-
EARLY EVENING HOURS. IF THE LOW PASSES OVERHEAD, AFTERNOON HIGHS
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA MAY BE STUCK IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S WITH 40S TO
LOW 50S IN THE SIERRA. BRONG
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN CONCERN IS THE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY ON MONDAY WITH A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 273, 450 AND 453.
A TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE COAST WITH WINDS ALOFT INCREASING AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA MONDAY MORNING, PERHAPS REACHING
SUSANVILLE/GERLACH. IT WILL STALL NEAR THERE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE RAPIDLY PUSHING TOWARD I-80 AS THE JET STREAM MOVES INTO THE
OREGON COAST. BEHIND THE FRONT, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
KEEPING MINIMUM HUMIDITY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE/GERLACH NEAR AND ABOVE
20%, WITH VALUES BELOW 15% SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR AND ALONG I-80/US-395 IN THE
RENO-CARSON-MINDEN AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS
35-45 MPH. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER, WITH GUSTS
TO 35 MPH FOR MONO COUNTY AND INTO LYON, PERSHING AND CHURCHILL
COUNTIES. FOR MINERAL, ZONE 459, GUSTS DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG BUT MAY
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 MPH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS ACROSS MONO COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT WHERE GUSTY WINDS
COULD CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT DUE TO A POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPE EVENT. THE
DOWNSLOPE SIGNATURE IS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, BUT GUSTS
TO 30-35 MPH ALONG US-395 SHOULD PERSIST WELL AFTER SUNSET AS
HUMIDITY SLOWLY RISES ABOVE 20%.
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL WEAKEN BUT STILL
BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH AS THE JET REMAINS OVERHEAD. HUMIDITY
WILL INCREASE AS AFTERNOON HIGHS DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY, SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS. BRONG/WALLMANN
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS 21Z-04Z.
WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND THE JET STREAM REACH
THE WEST COAST. GUSTS AT KRNO-KMMH MAY EXCEED 35 KTS, WITH PEAK
GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 KTS FOR KTRK AND KTVL. SIERRA RIDGE WINDS COULD
REACH 50 KTS, WITH TURBULENT APPROACHES FOR ALL TERMINALS. BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
NVZ450-453.
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
CAZ273.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KVEF 200948
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
248 AM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO MONDAY WILL GIVE
WAY TO A DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL LEAD TO SUNNY
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING 5-8 DEGREES COMPARED TO
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO UTAH MONDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AS A TROUGH PUSHES
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. MOST AREAS WILL SEE AFTERNOON
WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WHILE SKIES REMAIN SUNNY AND
TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER FEW DEGREES. A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AS A SHALLOW TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
COOLING AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ONE SHORTWAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE AND
KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL. THE FLOW WILL START TO TURN
MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM AND ALL SHOW A CLOSED LOW PUSHING
INTO NORTHERN CA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL CA BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY ON FRIDAY. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL CA/NV BEFORE
SHIFTING NORTHEAST AND LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND
HAVE INCREASED POPS JUST A BIT FOR PORTIONS OF INYO AND ESMERALDA
COUNTIES. WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE THE MAIN IMPACT AND ITS LIKELY
THAT AT LEAST WIND ADVISORIES/RED FLAG PRODUCTS WILL BE NEEDED BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH COOLER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL FROM THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE AREA. WIND DIRECTION WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE BELOW 15
PERCENT IN MOST AREAS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE A
BIT MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY WHICH WOULD INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY EXCEED 35 MPH OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HARRISON/GORELOW
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KVEF 200401
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
900 PM PDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT THE
GOING FORECAST TRENDS DETAILED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
235 PM PDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SHORT TERM...CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE NEARS THE PAC NW COAST...AS WELL AS DAYTIME MAX
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH GOOD LOWER LEVEL MIXING AND
500MB HEIGHTS AROUND 7-8DM ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FOURTH WEEK IN MAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS
IN DEVELOPING A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DECREASING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL AS A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. ANY
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TO ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY...BUT MORE LIKELY FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AS THE CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. CONDITIONS DO
NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT AS THERE IS TOO MUCH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOUNTAIN WAVES TRAPPED
ALOFT. AT THIS TIME...ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
KEEPS THIS DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE AREA. WIND DIRECTION WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
KENNEDY
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KREV 192210
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
310 PM PDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SHORT TERM...
REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BROUGHT
DOWN LOWS SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT BELOW RIDGES, OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY BEFORE COOLER AIR INVADES AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST CONUS.
ON SUNDAY, ECLIPSE VIEWING (5:30 - 7:30 PM) STILL LOOKS GOOD THROUGH
THE RENO-TAHOE AREA WITH JUST A FEW FLAT CUMULUS POSSIBLE. THE
ONLY AREAS THAT MAY HAVE ISSUES WITH A PARTIALLY BLOCKED VIEW WILL
BE NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND OVER EASTERN MONO/WESTERN MINERAL COUNTIES
WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED.
MONDAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS OF THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION, I HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER
FROM NORTHERN LASSEN AND WASHOE COUNTIES. INSTABILITY LOOKS POOR
AS PROGS CALL FOR EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
IN ADDITION, SHEAR INCREASES AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES SO ANY
CONVECTION THAT TRIES TO BUILD MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE RIPPED APART
(THUNDERSTORMS REQUIRE A BALANCE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO FORM).
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN/WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA BRINGING A 5 TO 10 DEGREE
DROP IN HIGHS FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
NORTH OF A PORTOLA-PYRAMID LAKE-LOVELOCK LINE. SNYDER
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL HINGE ON AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTH PACIFIC. AS RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTH BETWEEN 150-160W, A
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE WESTERN US. ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE WEST
BUT STILL SHOW VARIANCE IN MAGNITUDE AND TIMING. EVEN WITH THIS
UNCERTAINTY WE CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE PAC NW WEDNESDAY AND SETTLES OVER CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY EVENING. APPROACHING LOW WILL INCREASE
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN ENHANCED SURFACE GRADIENT. LOW THEN
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND BUT MODELS SHOW LESS
AGREEMENT PAST THURSDAY. THE 12Z EC HAS TRENDED LESS AMPLIFIED AND
MAINTAINS A WEAKER OPEN WAVE WHILE THE GFS FORMS A CLOSED LOW THAT
TRACKS DIRECTLY OVER THE TAHOE BASIN. AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH, A
SURFACE LOW FORMS DOWNSTREAM OF THE AXIS AND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
DAY OF POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS BY FRIDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND, MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY THEY WANT TO EJECT THE LOW
WITH THE EC BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE GFS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MODEL TRENDS. FUENTES
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON GUSTS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING
ZEPHYR BREEZES. WEST WINDS LIKELY TO INCREASE MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND THE JET STREAM REACH THE WEST COAST. TF/BRONG
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WINDS ON MONDAY. UNTIL THEN EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY OF VERY WARM TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY TOMORROW WITH
TYPICAL AFTERNOON WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT.
FOR MONDAY, THE TROUGH PUSHES ONTO THE COAST WITH WINDS ALOFT
INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA EARLY, PERHAPS REACHING SUSANVILLE/GERLACH. IT WILL STALL
NEAR THERE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE RAPIDLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST
AGAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE KEEPING
MINIMUM HUMIDITY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE/GERLACH IN THE 20S. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
AS FOR THE WINDS, STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR AND ALONG I-80 DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST, WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER, BUT STILL EXPECT GUSTS TO 35
MPH FOR MONO COUNTY AND INTO NV 453. AS FOR MINERAL, ZONE 459, WINDS
DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG THERE. THEREFORE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR WINDS/RH WHERE THEY BEST COINCIDE FROM 1-9 PM; 273/450/453.
ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE ACROSS MONO COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT WHERE WINDS
COULD CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPE EVENT. DID
NOT EXTEND THE WATCH THERE, BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. RH WOULD
ONLY SLOWLY RISE INTO THE LOW 20S AS LONG AS WINDS CONTINUE AND
COULD SEE GUSTS TO 50 MPH IF THE DOWNSLOPE DEVELOPS.
TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT STILL BE
BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. RH WILL ALSO INCREASE AS TEMPS COOL
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. WINDS DO LOOK TO REMAIN
GUSTY ALL WEEK WITH A STRONG JET OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME,
WITH COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHER RH IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANY WATCHES/WARNINGS
WILL BE NEEDED. THIS COULD CHANGE IF WINDS LOOK MUCH STRONGER THAN
THE GUSTS TO 35 MPH THAT I AM CURRENTLY EXPECTING. WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
NVZ450-453.
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
CAZ273.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KLKN 192148
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
248 PM PDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AFTERNOON DAYS AND COOL
NIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN ENTER THE PICTURE
FROM THE NORTHWEST...BEGINNING TUESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES OUT THERE
RIGHT NOW WITH SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY FROM THE COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN RATHER LIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DIP AS FAR TONIGHT AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH AREAS
SEEING THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE MOST PART.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY. 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
9-11 DEGREES C DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY LOCATIONS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH. BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT HAS
BEEN EXPERIENCED.
BY MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST. UPPER TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTHERN NEVADA`S WEATHER. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THE MAGNITUDES WILL REACH ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
HOWEVER...700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 10-13 DEGREES C...WHICH
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S FOR SURE. SOME LOCATIONS MAY
TOUCH THE 90 DEGREE MARK AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. GFS REMAINS
STRONGER WITH THE TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF FOR LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH BOTH MODELS TRENDING WEAKER OVERALL.
THUS...CUT BACK POPS A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTH AS THERE APPEARS A
LESSER CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS MANY AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN HOWEVER...BUT PERHAPS NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS EARLIER
ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS NOW EXPECTED TO ONLY BE NEAR NORMAL ON
TUESDAY.
AFTER THAT...GFS AND ECMWF GET A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES MOVING EAST FROM THE PACIFIC BENEATH
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE PARKED OVER THE PAC NW
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE A LARGE CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY. THUS...WHILE SOME TWEAKING WAS DONE TO
TRY TO TIME THINGS A BIT BETTER...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FORECAST. OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE COOLER...ESPECIALLY COMPARED
TO THE LAST MONTH OR SO OF UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER...WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NO
CONCENTRATED RAINFALL EXPECTED. AFTER THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OVER
CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS
COULD GET QUITE STRONG ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA. RCM
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CIGS AND VIS WITH
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. RCM
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTHERN NEVADA`S WEATHER.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. BY MONDAY AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO 7 TO 13 PERCENT. AS A
RESULT...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
454...455...469...AND 470 FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MONDAY. TEMPERATURE
WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A COOL AND
POSSIBLY MOIST PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE
AND LETTER PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH
CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER
COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...
WHITE PINE COUNTY.
&&
$$
86/93/93/86
000
FXUS65 KVEF 192134
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
235 PM PDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE NEARS THE PAC NW COAST...AS WELL AS DAYTIME MAX
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH GOOD LOWER LEVEL MIXING AND
500MB HEIGHTS AROUND 7-8DM ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FOURTH WEEK IN MAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS
IN DEVELOPING A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DECREASING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL AS A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. ANY
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TO ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY...BUT MORE LIKELY FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AS THE CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. CONDITIONS DO
NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT AS THERE IS TOO MUCH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOUNTAIN WAVES TRAPPED
ALOFT. AT THIS TIME...ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
KEEPS THIS DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE AREA. WIND DIRECTION WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
KENNEDY
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KVEF 191614
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
915 AM PDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO WARMER CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
&&
.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AND WINDS MUCH LIGHTER TODAY... AS THE
FEATURE WHICH IMPACTED THE REGION YESTERDAY IS NOW WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES
WILL BE ISSUED THIS MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS IN
GENERAL CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING AND AIRCRAFT
DATA INDICATE NORTHEAST WINDS ALOFT AROUND 15KTS ON AVERAGE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...SO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE LATE
THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MID AFTERNOON.
ALSO...ANY NORTHEAST WINDS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING / EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN BELOW 8KTS 95% OF THE TIME.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
247 AM PDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SHORT TERM...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH WHICH PRODUCED A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN LINCOLN COUNTY FRIDAY WAS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND PERSIST
INTO MONDAY LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES TODAY LOOK TO BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT
WILL WARM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BY MONDAY. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
IN...SOME AREAS WILL SEE SOME NORTHERLY BREEZES THIS MORNING BUT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFT JUST TO OUR EAST.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY WILL HELP START A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH MAINLY CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AS THEY SHOW A
CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CA/NV BY FRIDAY MORNING AND
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING
WEEK. AS THE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE REGION TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MUCH OF A FACTOR WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER THE SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KENNEDY
PREV DISCUSSION...HARRISON/GORELOW
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KLKN 191045
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
345 AM PDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TUESDAY AND THE THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN NEVADA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S BY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10
MPH. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A LITTLE MOISTURE FROM OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL BRUSH THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST CORNER OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
BUT IF MOISTURE IS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN MODELS INDICATE COULD
SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BRING HIGH CLOUDS TO NORTHWEST NEVADA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 80S...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. BY MONDAY NIGHT CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA
WILL LOWER AND EXPAND TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...HOWEVER
SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED GENERALLY TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80. THE
TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AS SUCH...EXPECT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO LINGER OVER EXTREME
NORTHERN AND AT TIMES EASTERN MOST NEVADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS WELL AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
MOST OF THE PERIOD ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE FIRE DISTRICT WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER...WARMING TEMPERATURES...AND WINDS MOSTLY UNDER
10 MPH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK AND A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
91/96/96/91
000
FXUS65 KREV 190948
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
248 AM PDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER CA-NV THIS WEEKEND RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS IN WESTERN NV
VALLEYS NEAR 80 TODAY, THEN RISING TO MID 80S TO NEAR 90 SUNDAY AS
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NV. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR MOST
OF THE WEEKEND BUT WILL TRANSITION TO A COMMON LEE SIDE ZEPHYR
BREEZE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH.
ECLIPSE VIEWING ON SUNDAY FOR EASTERN CA-WESTERN NV STILL LOOKS
BEST NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND SOUTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH,
INCLUDING THE TAHOE BASIN, RENO-CARSON VICINITY, AND PYRAMID LAKE.
IN THESE AREAS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS DECREASED COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE, SO WHILE DAYTIME HEATING MAY GENERATE A FEW
FLAT CUMULUS, THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SLIM CHANCE OF BLOCKING THE
ECLIPSE. FARTHER SOUTH IN MINERAL AND MONO COUNTIES, CUMULUS
COVERAGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER BUT THESE AREAS SHOULD STILL HAVE
A DECENT SHOT OF SEEING THE ECLIPSE. FOR THE WEST CENTRAL NV
BASIN, SOME VIEWING UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD NORTH DURING THE EVENING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR ENOUGH DURING THE ANNULAR STAGE AROUND
630 PM, WITH POSSIBLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AFTER THE SUN
EMERGES FROM ITS ANNULAR STAGE. NORTH OF SUSANVILLE TO THE OREGON
BORDER, THE VIEWING HAS MORE OF A POSSIBILITY OF BEING HINDERED AT
TIMES AS INSTABILITY IS HIGHER WITH MORE 500-400 MB MOISTURE. A
FEW DEEPER CUMULUS TOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH FORCING
APPEARS LIMITED, SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS
TIME.
ON MONDAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE AS TROUGH REACHES THE WEST COAST AND
AN UPPER LEVEL JET TRACKS OVER THE CA/OR BORDER. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASED WINDS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NV-EASTERN CA. THE INSTABILITY
APPEARS BE MORE MARGINAL ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV
ALTHOUGH ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR A
FEW BRIEF T-STORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. AS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WESTERN NV MONDAY NIGHT, SOME LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE CELLS IN
NORTH CENTRAL CA COULD SPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS INTO AREAS NORTH OF
I-80 OVERNIGHT. MJD
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN ISSUE IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE WESTERN STATES LATE NEXT WEEK. A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC AND AN UNSEASONABLY COLD LOW IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, WITH THE JET NOSING INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA
BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THE JET AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE OFF THE PACIFIC TO AREAS NORTH
OF US-50, WHICH LIMITS THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
AS THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NEAR 160W THURSDAY-FRIDAY THE UPPER FLOW
TURNS NORTHWEST, ALLOWING THE COLD LOW TO CARVE OUT A LARGE TROUGH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST. THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAS INCREASED FOR THIS
SOLUTION AND WITH A SECOND BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES,
THE COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. DID INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SIERRA
TO 30 PERCENT WITH INCREASING MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN.
AS CONFIDENCE GROWS IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK,
UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH IN THE DETAILS. MODELS HAVE LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE COLD UNSTABLE AIR AS
IT DROPS SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA, WHICH HAS A BIG IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURE, SNOW LEVEL AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
IF THE LOW WERE TO DROP DIRECTLY OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
AFTERNOON HIGHS COULD BE AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
SNOW LEVELS NEAR AND BELOW 7000 FEET. THIS WOULD PLACE HIGHS
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA IN THE LOWER-MID 60S AND UPPER 40S-MID 50S
FOR THE SIERRA. THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND SHOULD BE AWARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LATE WINTER/EARLY
SPRING CONDITIONS. BRONG
&&
.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST. ANY FOG THAT
DEVELOPS AT KTRK WILL BURN OFF BY 16Z THIS MORNING.
WEST WINDS LIKELY TO INCREASE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND THE JET
STREAM REACH THE WEST COAST. BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KVEF 190947
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
247 AM PDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO WARMER CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH WHICH PRODUCED A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN LINCOLN COUNTY FRIDAY WAS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND PERSIST
INTO MONDAY LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES TODAY LOOK TO BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT
WILL WARM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BY MONDAY. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
IN...SOME AREAS WILL SEE SOME NORTHERLY BREEZES THIS MORNING BUT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFT JUST TO OUR EAST.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY WILL HELP START A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH MAINLY CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AS THEY SHOW A
CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CA/NV BY FRIDAY MORNING AND
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING
WEEK. AS THE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE REGION TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MUCH OF A FACTOR WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER THE SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TONIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN MORE PREDOMINANTLY OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 6-9KTS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS UNDER 10KTS OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR A NORTHEAST TO EAST DIRECTION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS UP TO 10KTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HARRISON/GORELOW
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
|
